Back to $76K for 2025? 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
2025-01-06
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Bitcoin BTCUSD bulls are fighting for $100,000 as the first full trading week of 2025 gets underway.
Bitcoin “deeper correction” fears linger
Bitcoin saw solid performance following its latest weekly close at around $98,300, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
Up 1% on the day at the time of writing, BTCUSD managed to hit $99,857 on Bitstamp — its highest since Dec. 26.
For market observers, the implications of this have not gone unnoticed.
“Long-term price chart of $BTCUSD Cup with handle price target (conservative measurement) is standing at 137K,” popular trader and analyst Aksel Kibar reiterated in his latest post on X.
Popular trader Cheds Trading meanwhile eyed a potential invalidation of a head and shoulders top playing out on daily timeframes.
Fellow trader SuperBro saw Bitcoin's potential to beat its impressive run over Q4. This is thanks to BTCUSD nearly reaching its 10-week simple moving average (SMA) during its retracement from new all-time highs.
“Each time the 10 MA has been hit after a strong move, it has been followed by an even stronger move,” SuperBro wrote in an X thread.

Others reserved the possibility of a deeper BTC price correction to come — potentially retracing most of the Q4 breakout.
“The 21-Day MA is headed for a Death Cross with the 50-Day MA on the Bitcoin Daily chart,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, warned into the weekly close. 
Alan said that holding the 21-day SMA, currently at $96,957, is now key to avoiding the bearish scenario.
“If BTC can hold above the 50-Day MA and rally back to ATH territory it will be a short term dip, however, if price dips below the 21-Day MA this could develop into a deeper correction,” he summarized. 

$100,000 back in the spotlight
For Bitcoin traders, the $100,000 mark now has fresh short-term significance — and is thus key to advancing the bull market.
Despite mixed opinions over both its technical and psychological importance, $100,000 is currently the main battleground for Bitcoin bulls to conquer.
Liquidation levels across exchanges currently center on the six-figure boundary, making it the most significant nearby BTC price point.
“A lot of liquidity at $100K,” monitoring resource CoinGlass noted on Jan. 6, implying that a short squeeze or other liquidity-hunting event could result.
CoinGlass data nonetheless shows that traders were broadly prepared for a test of $100,000 resistance over the weekend, with 24-hour liquidations totaling a mere $26 million.
Material Indicators’ Alan meanwhile showed consistent buying pressure across order classes, with smaller buyers joining whales in increasing exposure.
“FireCharts Binned CVD shows all order classes banging the Bitcoin buy button,” he reported on X on Jan. 5, referring to one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
Among those eyeing a price move into the high-liquidity $100,000 zone is popular trader XO.
“Key focus remains the 100k mid-level as the key inflection point,” he confirmed to X followers, suggesting that that event could be followed by a fresh comedown.
“Retest of the demand zone is for longing imo should it setup again,” he added alongside a chart with a $90,000 downside target.
Fed minutes due in tense macro climate
Crypto and risk assets are on edge as the 2025 macroeconomic calendar gets underway.
Inflation is back in the spotlight, and with it, rising unemployment — a classic recipe for so-called “stagflation,” which could spell trouble for traders.
Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will enact further interest rate cuts are waning after December’s decidedly hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The minutes of that meeting are due this week, potentially bringing back the sense of foreboding that punctured Bitcoin’s solid gains.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 0.25% cut at the next FOMC at 9.1%.
“Labor market data is in the spotlight ahead of the January 29th Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its latest X coverage.
Along with the Fed minutes comes the December jobs report on Jan. 10, a day after initial jobless claims.
Kobeissi conversely pointed out declining US bank reserves as a potential precursor to a fresh round of liquidity injections — quantitative easing, or QE, taking the place of quantitative tightening (QT).
In the week ending Jan. 1, reserves declined by $326 billion to their lowest levels since October 2020.
“Meanwhile, the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet (QT) at an average pace of $60 billion PER MONTH,” it continued. 

Retail investors forget about Bitcoin
Bitcoin retail investors are all but “gone” at just 10% below all-time highs.
Examining transaction volume traditionally associated with the retail investor cohort, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals a sea change in participation.
“Retail investors disappeared as quickly as they arrived!” contributor Darkfost summarized in a Quicktake blog post on Jan. 5.
The rolling 30-day change in retail-sized transaction volumes — up to $10,000 — has declined significantly since BTCUSD reached its current record highs of $108,000 last month.
“As BTC approached $100K, retail demand variation surged by over 30%,” the post explains. 

Bitcoin’s return below the $100,000 mark was accompanied by a 16% dive in the 30-day metric.
“When this variation falls below -10% it means that retail interest drops significantly, it often creates an ideal buying opportunity as a bullish reaction has frequently followed,” Darkfost reports.
While the retail investors’ reaction to any new BTC price upside remains to be seen, CryptoQuant notes that “measured” increases in demand can have a cathartic impact on performance.
As Cointelegraph reported, it took the retail segment many months to react to the changing trend landscape as BTCUSD rose to beat its old all-time highs of $73,800 from March last year.
Speculators at a crossroads
Another Bitcoin investor segment, the so-called short-term holders (STHs), is meanwhile at a critical point.
Profitability for STH entities, defined as those hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or less, is hovering around the breakeven point.
As Cointelegraph reported previously, the trip to $108,000 offered STHs significant return on investment, but this all but disappeared on the subsequent comedown to near $90,000.
Now, at just below the $100,000 level, STH profits hang in the balance.
“A drop in profitability for short-term holders often provides a clear signal of weakening market demand and bearish sentiment over the short and medium term,” CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk warned in another Quicktake post at the weekend. 

An accompanying chart shows the impact on profitability since $108,000, with STHs nonetheless still far from the losses commonly seen during market downturns.
Additional CryptoQuant data further reveals the mixed fortunes of “new money” recently entering Bitcoin thanks to choppy price action.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.