 Bitcoin price metric 'bearish since October' warns analyst amid $10K dip 
2024-12-06

Bitcoin BTCUSD is on “borrowed time” as global liquidity conditions turn against crypto and risk-assets, new analysis warns.
In a thread on X on Dec. 6, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at investment firm Real Vision, delivered unwelcome news for Bitcoin bulls.
Lagging BTC price faces new liquidity showdown
Bitcoin could well make further gains this bull market, but the coming three months may mark a temporary end to the party.
For Coutts, liquidity conditions, as expressed by his Bitcoin MSI macro model, suggest pain could come next.
“Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop,” he summarized.

His findings came amid flash intraday volatility for BTCUSD, which printed a so-called “Darth Maul” candle and wiped out hundreds of millions of dollars of both long and short positions in a snap $10,000 correction.
Coutts explained that the model helped him “call” both the start and end of the last Bitcoin bear market in 2022.
“The macro and liquidity dashboard shows unequivocally sustained bearish momentum for most metrics,” he cautioned alongside liquidity data. 
Ultimately, it is the next two to three months that could see a troublesome trading environment return, with Coutts acknowledging that Bitcoin lags liquidity changes by around two months.
“This MSI indicator turned bearish in mid-October, but the Trump election win has (rightly) spurred a strong rally,” he continued.

Bitcoin bulls need weaker dollar
An additional consideration comes in the form of US dollar strength.
The US dollar index (DXY) hit its highest levels since November 2022 last month — something Coutts hopes will remain a “fake breakout.”
“This is constructive for my base case that conditions should ease going into Q1 2025,” he commented. 

BTCUSD traded near $98,000 at the time of writing on Dec. 6, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.