Sygnum forecasts that a $1 billion Strategic Bitcoin Reserve purchase could trigger a $20 billion market cap surge
2025-02-06
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Sygnum’s Head of Investment Research, Katalin Tischhauser, has forecasted a potential price trajectory for bitcoin in a scenario in which each $1 billion of inflows from a potential U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve could spark a multiplier effect — significantly expanding the digital asset’s market capitalization.
Speaking with The Block, Tischhauser explained that every additional billion dollars of inflow could add as much as $20 billion to bitcoin’s market cap — a phenomenon she attributes not only to the direct capital inflow but also to a significant upward price shock. “Each $1 billion of strategic reserve purchases could drive a 20x multiplier effect on bitcoin’s market cap,” Tischhauser said. The extra $19 billion in the multiplier projection, she noted, would come from the resultant demand shock and a squeeze on the already limited liquid supply of bitcoin.
Limited liquidity could fuel exponential growth
According to Tischhauser, the impact is compounded by the inherently small liquid supply of bitcoin. “The potential demand shock will be so significant because the liquid supply of bitcoin is really very small,” she explained. Her comments suggest that as new money enters the market, the finite supply forces a rapid escalation in price. This upward pressure is expected to intensify as early inflows are absorbed, leaving even less bitcoin available for subsequent demand.
Tischhauser illustrated the dynamic by breaking down the effect: the first and second billion dollars in inflows would largely “burn through” available demand, while the third and fourth would encounter a more constrained supply environment, leading to accelerated price increases.
“This is what I call demand shocks—when the amount of money coming into the market exceeds the supply available for sale, the price is shocked to the upside,” she said.
Potentially multiple sources of net demand
The research head highlighted that the net increase in demand could arise from a variety of sources. State and local governments seeking reserve assets, allocations from large institutional investors, and, potentially, corporate treasuries are all expected to contribute to the cumulative net demand that fuels this multiplier effect in a "market stampede."
Tischhauser also pointed to the growth in stablecoin market cap as a proxy signal, noting that as stablecoins swell, it typically indicates that more funds are being funneled into the crypto market.
She further underscored that the observed multipliers during the inflows in 2024 have laid the groundwork for this projection. “The 20x multiplier is based on what we saw during the surges in inflows in 2024. But we could have bigger surges this year if central banks really get involved,” Tischhauser added.
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