China’s growing debt a great Bitcoin ‘buying opportunity’ — Arthur Hayes
2024-10-29

Bitcoin’s status as a hedge against monetary debasement could be bolstered by China’s growing national debt.
China is considering the approval of a fresh wave of debt of over 10 trillion yuan, worth approximately $1.4 trillion, as part of a fiscal package that could grow with the potential reelection of Republican Party Presidential candidate Donald Trump, anonymous sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
If approved, the $1.4 trillion worth of yuan debt would be raised in the following three years, with the proceeds used to help local governments address debt risks.
Reports of the potential debt could increase interest in Bitcoin’s BTCUSD status as a hedge against monetary debasement among traders in mainland China, according to Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX.
The potential debt raise could present a “great buying opportunity,” Hayes wrote in an Oct. 28 blog post:

Hayes’ prediction comes shortly after Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time since June 10, bolstered by growing anticipation for the US presidential elections on Nov. 5.
Bitcoin price saw a 5x last time China raised debt
Hayes’ predictions are partly based on Bitcoin’s historic performance after periods of large national debt raises and currency devaluations.
Bitcoin price saw an over five-fold increase in 2015 when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) executed three consecutive devaluations of the Chinese yuan, which lost over 3% of its value, Hayes added:

Popular investors like MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor have described Bitcoin as the best hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation.
Asian buyers are driving Bitcoin’s breakout toward new highs: Nansen
The Bitcoin price is setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high on the five-minute chart.
Asian buyers have been a significant driver of this price momentum, according to Aurelie Barthere, the principal research analyst at Nansen.
Barthere told Cointelegraph:
Bitfinex analysts also predict a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 before the end of 2025, driven by the options market structure and the prospect of a Republican presidential victory.
A victory by Trump in the Nov. 5 US presidential election is widely seen as a bullish development for risk assets like Bitcoin, which has correlated with Trump’s rising election odds.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.