Can Bitcoin Hit $200,000 Only If The Dollar Falls? Bitwise CIO Answers
2024-10-31

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, addressed a pressing question among investors: Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to reach a valuation of $200,000 per coin? Hougan’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s ascent to such a price level does not depend on a decline in the US dollar’s value but rather on Bitcoin’s maturation as a store-of-value asset and global economic factors increasing demand for such assets.
Bitcoin Can Reach $200,000 Without US Dollar Collapse
In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Hougan recounted a conversation with a financial advisor who posed the question over dinner. “Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000? The answer is ‘no.’ Here’s why,” Hougan wrote.
Hougan explained that investing in Bitcoin involves making two distinct bets. First, “Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new ‘store of value’ asset.” Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately 7% of gold’s $18 trillion market. Hougan noted, “If it ‘matures’ and becomes 50% the size of gold, every Bitcoin is worth over $400,000.
Second, “Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for ‘store of value’ assets.” If the market for store-of-value assets triples in size due to such mismanagement, and Bitcoin maintains its 7% market share, “each Bitcoin is worth over $200,000.”
He emphasized that these two arguments are independent but can compound. “If Bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures. For what it’s worth (FWIW), I think this is the most likely scenario eventually,” Hougan stated.
Addressing the initial question directly, Hougan asserted, “So, no, the dollar doesn’t need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.” He added that both factors—BTC’s maturation and potential fiat currency abuse—are increasingly likely to occur simultaneously. “That’s why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs.”
The discussion continued with input from Kevin Brent Cook, a user on X, who added nuance to Hougan’s explanation. “Concise, clear, and simple,” Cook remarked. “I would only add that the reason a ‘collapse’ isn’t necessary is that under ‘abusing fiat’ comes the steady grind of deficit-driven dollar inflation (the US writes endless checks that never bounce), which naturally creates more currency chasing all assets.”
Hougan concurred with Cook’s assessment, responding with a succinct “Agreed.”
At press time, BTC traded at $72,445, up 23% in the last 20 days.