Crypto Options Signal More Losses for Ether-Bitcoin Ratio After Trump Skips BTC Mention in Inaugural Speech
2025-01-21
Category: None

Deribit-listed options show a persistent bullish outlook for bitcoin relative to ether, following President Donald Trump's omission of any crypto mention in his inaugural speech on Monday.
As of noon Hong Kong Time, BTC call options, which offer a bullish exposure in the leading cryptocurrency, traded pricier than ETH calls across time frames, according to risk reversals tracked by Amberdata. Risk reversal measures the difference between implied volatility for calls relative to puts, with positive values signaling a bullish sentiment.
BTC's risk reversals show short-term and near-term calls trading at a four to five volatility points premium to puts. Meanwhile, ETH calls trade at a relatively lesser volatility premium to puts.
In other words, the ether-bitcoin ratio is seen extending the downtrend. The ratio hit a three-year low of 0.03 early this week.
The bias favoring BTC is particularly striking given that Trump did not mention the strategic bitcoin reserve on Monday, despite prior rumors suggesting he would.
At the same time, a report showing GOP congressional priorities didn't include mentions of bitcoin or crypto.
Traders on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket now see a 38% chance of Trump announcing a strategic BTC reserve in his first 100 days of presidency. That's down from nearly 50% a day ago.