Is A US Bitcoin Reserve Priced In? Analyst Shares Eye-Opening Facts
2025-01-23
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The market finds itself at a pivotal crossroads as US President Donald Trump has not issued a crypto or strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) related executive order yet. Renowned crypto analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has reignited the debate via X, questioning whether such a reserve is already “priced in” by current market valuations.
Is Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Priced In?
The concept of an asset being “priced in” refers to the idea that all known information about a potential event is already reflected in its current price. MacroScope draws parallels between the current speculation surrounding an SBR and the period leading up to the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“In some ways, the discussion about a US strategic Bitcoin reserve mirrors the ETF debate we saw earlier,” MacroScope shared on X. He emphasized that just as ETFs broadened access and increased participation by institutional investors, a government-backed reserve could exponentially expand the pool of capital entering the market.
MacroScope’s analysis is rooted in his observations before the advent of Bitcoin ETFs. During that time, he asserted that ETFs would catalyze a new wave of investment by making Bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. “I posted the below at BTC 44k, a few days before the ETFs started trading,” he recalled.
The introduction of ETFs indeed facilitated easier access to Bitcoin, attracting significant institutional and retail interest. MacroScope believes that a similar, albeit more impactful, scenario could unfold with an SBR. Unlike ETFs, which primarily enhance liquidity and accessibility, an SBR would signal a strong governmental endorsement of Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, a Bitcoin reserve would expand the “pool of participants, certainly in terms of available capital.” This would have major global implications. [It] would be due to the arms race mentality that would develop. […] The ETFs impacted Bitcoin’s price via easier access. A US strategic reserve will impact price via global psychology and urgency,” he added.
MacroScope referenced a post from the previous year to bolster his argument: “It’s impossible for something to be ‘priced in’ if a huge amount of capital literally doesn’t have access yet. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can buy ahead of an event. But that’s as far as any ‘pricing in’ goes if the pool of participants is about to greatly expand.”
Nick Moran, Founder & CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope’s assertions. “Macroscope, you’re dead on with this one,” Moran affirmed. She elaborated on the likelihood of a “mass scale SBR” under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting that such a move would set a precedent for other nations to follow.
Political support, though still in nascent stages, appears promising. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the Bitcoin Act, recently stated in a podcast: “Wouldn’t it be fun if the US is buying Bitcoin and it scares China and Russia so they start buying Bitcoin and we have an arms race over Bitcoin instead of over weapons.”
Adding to the optimism, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc. and a key advisor to Trump’s campaign on crypto assets, shared his expectations on X following President Trump’s pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “I’m still expecting dedicated bitcoin+crypto EOs in coming days,” Bailey stated, hinting at forthcoming executive orders that could formalize the establishment of an SBR. He further projected: “I also fully expect the President to deliver on the SBR in his first 100 days.”
At press time, BTC traded at $102,295.