Bitcoin breakout ‘likely no later’ than Jan FOMC meeting: 10x Research
2025-01-15
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Bitcoin is shaping up for a price breakout by the end of January ahead of the United States Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Jan. 29, says 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen.
But that breakout may see Bitcoin’s BTCUSD price go up or down from its current level of $96,794, he said.
Bitcoin’s ‘narrowing triangle’ means it could go either way
“Bitcoin trades within a narrowing triangle, signaling a breakout is imminent — likely no later than the January 29 FOMC meeting,” Thielen said in a Jan. 14 markets report.
“From a trading perspective, the best approach is to follow the breakout, regardless of direction,” Thielen said.
Thielen said expectations for a higher Consumer Price Index number have risen, which could mean that if inflation comes in cooler than expected, it could trigger a Bitcoin rally.
The January FOMC meeting marks the first interest rate decision for 2025. It is a date closely watched by crypto market participants, given the hawkish tone delivered by the Federal Reserve in December.
Bitfinex said in a Jan. 13 markets report it was “one of the most hawkish stances from the Fed in recent months.” On Dec. 4, Fed chair Jerome Powell signaled in his rate-cut press statement that there may be fewer cuts in 2025 than originally projected — a bearish signal for riskier assets such as Bitcoin and crypto. 
Analyst ‘remains cautious’ of Bitcoin ahead of Trump’s inauguration
Bitfinex also pointed to the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows traders in the Fed Funds futures market estimate a 38.3% probability that the Fed won’t make any rate cuts in the first half of 2025.
Thielen “remains cautious” about Bitcoin’s price as Donald Trump’s US presidential term approaches on Jan. 20, pointing out that Bitcoin may begin to consolidate over the next two months:

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Lark Davis said in a Jan. 14 X post, “Bitcoin is repeating similar price action as the last presidential election and inauguration.” 
He highlighted on a price chart that before Biden’s inauguration in 2021, Bitcoin saw a dip toward the $30,000 mark, only to rebound to $55,000 after the inauguration.
“While history may not repeat itself, it often rhymes,” Davis said.
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