Arthur Hayes Expects the Crypto Market to Peak in March: Here’s Why
2025-01-07
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Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has taken an unexpected yet appealing turn. The valuation of leading crypto assets like bitcoin (BTC) has soared to heights not seen since the start of the year.
The latest market performance has prompted crypto experts like Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s co-founder and former CEO, to restructure their projections. In his latest report, Hayes explained that the ongoing bull cycle will conclude in March.Bull Cycle Continues Until March
In December, the BitMEX co-founder explained that the crypto market would likely face a“harrowing dump”towards January 20th because crypto enthusiasts would realize that Donald Trump’s administration may not live up to all promises. Hayes argued that the Republican president-elect cannot make sudden policy modifications after his inauguration to accommodate the crypto-oriented vows.
With crypto prices rising, Hayes had to rethink his approach. He suggested that the Trump dump he speculated about had likely occurred between mid-December and the end of the year. Still, this did not rule out the possibility of a potential price drawback in the short term.
“I still believe that is a potential negative factor that could weigh upon the market in the short term, but against that, I must balance the dollar liquidity impulse. Bitcoin, for now, jukes and jives as the pace of dollar emissions changes,” he wrote.
Addressing risk-takers at his family office, Maelstrom, where he is the chief investment officer (CIO), Hayes recommended turning the risk dial to “degen.” He added that the market could keep seeing bullish trends until March.How Will Dollar Liquidity Play Its Role?
The Maelstrom CIO projects that actions from the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department will fuel positive dollar liquidity, benefiting crypto assets like BTC. He predicts that as much as $612 billion will add to the economy’s liquidity in the first quarter of this year.
Shortly after, Hayes expects the negative dollar liquidity factors like the April 15 tax payment deadline to trigger players in the financial industry to migrate their money from assets like crypto to cover these expenses. This, he believes, will usher in the bearish trend.