Bitcoin breakout or black swan? $90K BTC price lacks gold, stocks high
2024-11-16

Bitcoin BTCUSD has not matched all-time highs against the S&P 500, gold and others — but doing so is “a matter of if, not when.”
In a post on X on Nov. 15, Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, predicted BTC price outperformance next.
Bitcoin macro breakout not yet reality
Bitcoin may have tapped $93,500 and gained nearly 50% in Q4, but against many macro assets, the BTC price breakout has yet to happen.
Franzen notes that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes remain unbeaten by Bitcoin — something also true of the NYSE FANG+ tech stock index and gold.
“Just a matter of when, not if,” he predicted.
For US stocks, the key moment in Bitcoin’s history was early 2021, even before BTCUSD set all-time highs of $69,000, which remained in place for over two years.
While dollar records have since fallen over and over, Bitcoin is still working on setting new all-time highs across the macro asset spectrum.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the market now gaining ground against gold, which had a head start of several months in setting new all-time highs in dollar terms.
At the time, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, forecasted a “rapid repricing” now that BTCUSD had broken out.
Subsequently, Edwards shared a long-term chart of gold’s own breakout in the 2000s after spending twenty years below previous all-time highs from 1980. BTCUSD, he suggested, could now do likewise.
BTC price bears warn of $72,000 “at least”
In a dramatic alternative take, a popular but increasingly infamous Bitcoin trader is now implying that a crash across risk assets is now due.
On Nov. 15, Il Capo of Crypto returned to his Telegram channel with a photograph that suggested he expected a black swan event to hit.
While no commentary was given, the post rapidly began to circulate on social media, with users recalling Il Capo of Crypto’s $12,000 BTC price target, among other things.
As Cointelegraph reported, bearish perspectives on Bitcoin continue to surface, with fellow trader Credible Crypto recently calling for $50,000 or lower for the pair.
In his latest X analysis, Credible Crypto flagged $72,000 as the downside target to watch.
“If we take our highs at 93.8k in a clear, impulsive move that breaks 100k+ then 72k and below is likely gone until the next bear market,” he wrote alongside accompanying charts.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.