Bitcoin Remains Bullish in Q4 Despite Middle East Tensions and Positive U.S. Jobs Data: K33 and ETC Group Analysts
2024-10-09

Bitcoin’s prospects for a bullish Q4 remain intact, despite recent market turbulence stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East and robust U.S. jobs data.
In a analysts from K33 said that the leading cryptocurrency has shown resilience, with positive signals emerging from the FTX estate’s creditor repayment process, which could bolster market sentiment.Bitcoin Rebounds After Strong U.S. Data
Last week’s geopolitical unrest and its impact on global markets initially put pressure on Bitcoin, causing a downturn.
However, better-than-expected U.S. employment figures contributed to a market rebound over the weekend, allowing Bitcoin to regain some lost ground.
The rebound aligns with analysts’ views that Bitcoin remains well-positioned for a strong performance as the year draws to a close.
A key development influencing market sentiment is the progress in the FTX bankruptcy proceedings.
Nearly two years after the crypto exchange’s collapse, Judge John Dorsey of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware approved a reorganization plan for FTX during a hearing on Monday.
This plan, which aims to begin creditor repayments, received broad support, with about 94% of creditors in the “dotcom customer entitlement claims” class backing the proposal.
These creditors represent around $6.83 billion in claims by value.
Negative funding rates are fueling my bullish stance.Just a heads-up: we're in Quarter 4. — Kyledoops (@kyledoops) 
According to K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman, creditor repayments are expected to begin late in Q4 and extend into early 2025.
They project that the process could commence within a 60-day window following the court’s effective date, anticipated for mid-November.
The analysts specified that debtors with claims under $50,000 would receive their payouts within this period, accounting for roughly $1.2 billion worth of assets.
Larger creditors, part of the entitlement class, could see $9 billion in payouts by February 2025.Sell-Side Pressure Has Been Alleviated
A critical question for market observers is how much of the returned capital will flow back into the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin market in Q4.
Lunde and Zimmerman noted that much of the sell-side pressure has already been alleviated, given that many of the crypto assets from the estate have been converted into fiat currency.
Of the total claims, estimated between $14.4 billion and $16.3 billion, about $3.9 billion has likely been acquired by credit funds, which are expected to hold rather than reinvest in the market.
Furthermore, around one-third of the remaining claims belong to entities from sanctioned countries, insiders, or individuals without KYC verification, making it difficult for them to claim their funds.
After accounting for these factors, the analysts estimate that approximately $8 billion remains, with 20% to 40%—around $2.4 billion—potentially flowing back into the crypto markets.
However, they believe this influx will be gradual, reducing its immediate impact on market dynamics.
K33’s analysis also reveals that only 21 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin in 2024, with most being memecoins, less liquid tokens, or new Layer 1 projects.
Nearly half of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have seen negative returns, while 25—including ETH, SOL, AAVE, DOGE, and TRX—have posted gains but still underperformed Bitcoin.Sell-Offs Related to Geopolitical Risks Present Buying Opportunity
In an analysis shared with Cryptonews.com, ETC Group said that past trends suggest that such sell-offs related to geopolitical risks often present tactical buying opportunities.
It added that the geopolitical tensions have now eased, and other factors, like the increased odds of Donald Trump’s election, have influenced the market recovery.
“On the macro side, the most recent positive US jobs report has blown out expectations and have eased market concerns for an imminent US recession,” the report said.
This has led to higher Treasury yields and increased expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless, ETC said that despite the recent turbulence, sentiment remains neutral, and market participants are closely watching shifts in liquidity and macroeconomic developments.
“Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed from high levels and currently signals neutral sentiment again,” it wrote.Conclusion
Despite recent market challenges, Bitcoin’s outlook for a strong finish in the fourth quarter remains promising.
The easing of geopolitical tensions and positive developments, such as the progress in the FTX bankruptcy proceedings and better-than-expected U.S. employment data, have supported a market rebound.
Analysts believe that the anticipated creditor repayments could further boost sentiment, with a portion of the returned capital likely flowing back into the crypto markets.
However, ETC noted that despite the recent turbulence, sentiment remains neutral, and market participants are closely watching shifts in liquidity and macroeconomic developments.