Bernstein raises its bitcoin price estimate for Harris win to $50,000, keeps Trump at $80-90K
2024-11-04

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predict a price target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of Tuesday’s U.S. election outcome.
Republican Donald Trump is seen as the pro-crypto candidate compared to Kamala Harris’s potential continuation of the Democrats’ hawkish crypto stance over the last four years, although the party has shown a marked change in tone over the past few months.
Bitcoin’s primary drivers are U.S. fiscal indiscipline, record debt levels and monetary expansion, driving up demand for hard assets, and the success of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds further accelerates this trend with enough headroom for growth, the analysts said. “The bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it is hard to reverse this course. Our bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 remains $200,000 independent of the election outcome.”
Polymarket odds convergence
Amid convergence in Polymarket odds over the weekend, Chhugani warned of short-term volatility in either direction, depending on who gets to enter the Oval Office.
Following Selzer’s Iowa poll, 3% in favor of the Democratic candidate, Trump’s advantage over Harris on Polymarket narrowed to around 11% from a 33% gap on Oct. 30. Trump currently leads Harris by 57.9% to 42.1% odds of winning the presidential race on the decentralized predictions platform, with its $3.1 billion in trading volume on the outcome making it by far the largest prediction market. The gap on the regulated Kalshi platform is 54% to 46% in Trump’s favor, having nearly drawn level at one point on Sunday. However, national polling averages remain close, showing a 1% lead for Harris, within the margin of error, the analysts noted.
Bitcoin dipped 7% from around $73,500 on Oct. 29 to currently change hands for $68,596, according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.
“To anyone who was suggesting Polymarket data is manipulated with a Trump bias, we believe we had enough proof over the weekend to suggest that it behaves just like any public market, and it is easy for the traders to get spooked with incremental poll data,” Chhugani said.
Harris also gained a brief 2% lead in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, though this has since swung back to 14% in Trump's favor. Trump also leads in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada on Polymarket, while Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Victory for either candidate is not priced in, Bernstein analysts claim. They reiterate that they expect bitcoin to break all-time highs of nearly $74,000 and reach $80,000 to $90,000 following a Trump win in the run-up to inauguration day on Jan. 20. However, a Harris win could see bitcoin drop to $50,000 over the same period before any recovery, they said, up from their previously predicted $30,000 to $40,000 range in that scenario.
BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said the recent market correction largely stemmed from profit-taking and a temporary decline in spot bitcoin ETF flows. However, Fournier remained optimistic about a potential year-end rally, with the possibility of a new all-time high for bitcoin in the coming weeks.
US election impact on other crypto sectors
Some have argued that a Harris win could be positive for Ethereum amid ether's significant underperformance in 2024 as the U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs could be the last approved under a tougher regulatory regime, avoiding competition from Solana or any other new investment products.
However, the Bernstein analysts said this was “zero-sum thinking,” and a constructive Securities and Exchange Commission would open opportunities for all crypto assets beyond bitcoin.
The utility of blockchains like Ethereum and Solana relies on favorable regulations for stablecoins, asset tokenization and crypto classification. Bipartisan support and a crypto-friendly SEC are essential, with Trump favoring pro-crypto policies, while Harris supports ownership but lacks detailed plans, Chhugani said.
Bitcoin mining will also remain in focus due to its domestic production potential and energy sourcing for AI compute. Regardless of the election outcome, mining is expected to thrive, but Chhugani added that a pro-mining policy could boost investor interest beyond the energy/AI narrative.
Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the debt securities of bitcoin miner Riot Platforms.
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