Donald Trump’s 55.3% Chance of Winning, Polymarket Data Shows
2024-10-11

Since the announcement of the dates of the United States presidential elections in 2024, the volatility in the cryptocurrency market has surged significantly, with Ethereum losing 22.81% of its trading price in the past 90 days, reaching $2,418 below 20,50, 100, and 200-day EMA as of writing. 
As per data from Polymarket, a known largest prediction market, the chance of Donald Trump winning the election is 55.3 percent, although Kamala Harris stands second on the list with 43.6 percent. Source: Polymarket 
Market experts argue that if Trump wins the election, there is more possibility that the ongoing volatility in the broader market will change into a positive sentiment. 
Data available on Polymarket notes that Trump has a lead over Kamala Harris from reasons like Montana, Texas, Mississippi, Arizona, and Alaska. On the other hand, Harris is leading Trump from Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Colorado, New York, and Virginia, among others. Election Impact on Crypto: Who’s Win Could Trigger Growth?
Finance experts worldwide argue that Trump’s victory could set a new future for crypto at a faster pace as, in recent years, he has changed his attitude towards crypto, and now he is termed as a pro-crypto leader by political supporters. 
Some speculators argue that Harris has a moderate approach toward digital currency and crypto, and it could be assumed that her win in the election could also help this market reach new milestones but at a slow pace. 
The wallet identified as the Trump wallet by Arkham Intelligence currently holds cryptocurrencies worth $6,817,092.20. Until publishing, the wallet held 494.793 Ether, 478.459 wETH, USDC worth $127.81k, 501 USDT, 6.9 million PEPE, including others like PEPEAI, DOG, Trump, and MOG. Source: Arkham Intelligence 
One of the primary reasons behind Trump’s victory is the support from elites such as Elon Musk. In a recent speech in Pennsylvania, the owner of Tesla opened his support for former president Trump and criticized the current government in the United States. 
In an X post dated September 03, 2024, Musk reposted a post of Mario Nawfal with his words, “ I can’t wait. There is a lot of waste and needless government regulation that needs to go.
I can’t wait. There is a lot of waste and needless regulation in government that needs to go. 
The information on opensecrets(dot)org notes shows that the total spending of the United States elections has reached $15,901,068,285, from which $10,286,346,287 used in the congressional race and $7,715,321,061 was in the presidential race. 
Kamala Harris leads Top Spending Candidate Committees 2024 with $435,620,329, followed by Trump at $171,427,936. 