Odds of Massive Rate Cut Surge. Is Bitcoin (BTC) About to Rally?
2024-09-04

According to data provided by Polymarket, the odds of a 50 basis rate cut have surged to as high as 40%. For comparison, the odds were just 20% two days ago. 
Short-term interest rate futures also show that a 50-basis point cut is now more likely than a 25-basis point one. 
The futures spiked after the release of the July JOLTS report, which showed that the job opening rate fell to 4.7%. Meanwhile, the layoff rate ticked up to 1.2%.
"Today's data suggests the labor market's cooling pace wasn't as dramatic as the July jobs report suggested. But here's the bad news: it's clear the labor market was still cooling," Nick Bunker, research director at Indeed said. 
Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassnode, has also commented that there is an "overall cooling trend."
The market is now preparing for the August jobs report, which will be published on Friday. 
Now that the hot jobs market is over, US workers find it increasingly difficult to get hired. 
A higher-than-expected rate could potentially bode well for Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $57,461, according to CoinGecko data. 
As reported by U.Today, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicted that the price of Bitcoin could potentially plunge to the $50,000 level despite previously forecasting that the cryptocurrency would resume its bull run this September. 
However, the Fed's dovishness could be a major bullish catalyst for the risk asset. 
However, bulls have low expectations since September tends to be the worst-performing month for Bitcoin. 