Bitcoin Nears Key Breakout: Last Three 200-Day MA Crossings Triggered ‘Parabolic Bull Runs’
2024-10-15

After a brief dip below the $60,000 mark on October 10, Bitcoin (BTC) has regained momentum, inching closer to its all-time high (ATH) of $73,700, reached in March of this year. 
This price recovery follows considerable volatility experienced by the largest cryptocurrency on the market throughout the year, with significant price swings, including sharp falls of almost 20% on 5 August and 6 September.
Despite these setbacks, indicators suggest that the bull run that investors have been anticipating for the last quarter of the year may still be on the horizon. 
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted BTC’s recovery just below the $66,000 mark, stressing that if this level can be maintained in the coming days, further gains could be in store.
Historical Patterns Suggest Bitcoin Could Surge Past $70,000
In a series of posts on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin is once again attempting to break through the critical 200-day moving average (MA), which currently sits between $63,000 and $64,000 on the daily chart. 
The analyst noted that after four previous rejections at this level this year, Bitcoin’s repeated attempts to break above this level could signal a significant turning point for the upcoming price action.
Martinez also highlighted a historical pattern: each of the last three times Bitcoin successfully broke above the 200-day moving average, it led to parabolic bull runs. 
This suggests that if Bitcoin can consolidate above this key level for the remainder of the month, the likelihood of exceeding the $70,000 mark for the first time in nearly three months increases significantly. Looking ahead, the analyst has set a target of $78,000 for Bitcoin in the near term. 
Historical Trends And Election Dynamics Fuel Optimism
Bloomberg recently highlighted Bitcoin’s price recovery, linking it to improving expectations around the US regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, particularly in the wake of the upcoming presidential election. 
Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris announced her commitment to establishing a supportive regulatory framework for crypto, coinciding with outreach efforts aimed at Black male voters as election day approaches. 
In contrast, Harris’ Republican rival Donald Trump has positioned himself as a strong advocate for the digital asset industry, including promises to make changes to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and to establish a Bitcoin reserve for the nation, which Bloomberg believes could resonate with voters in a close race.
Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, noted that recent market movements appear to be election-driven. Initially, Bitcoin’s uptick was influenced by Trump’s lead in prediction markets and polls. 
This was followed by favorable comments regarding crypto from the Harris campaign, suggesting a less restrictive approach compared to the current Biden administration. Although specifics of Harris’s crypto policy remain unclear, the sentiment indicates a potential shift toward a more positive regulatory environment.
In addition, October has historically been a strong month for BTC, with the cryptocurrency gaining an average of 20% during this time over the past decade. 
Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, pointed out that historical trends suggest that this seasonal strength is typically more pronounced in the second half of the month, suggesting that BTC’s price could see further gains as the month progresses.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,970, up more than 5% in the 24-hour time frame. 
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com