Bitcoin (BTC) Decoupling From Wall Street: A Signal for New Records in 2025?
2025-01-08
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2025 has kicked off on a positive note, with Bitcoin back to six figures, trading above $100,000. Despite climbing by almost 8% over the past week, BTC is yet to reclaim its recently established all-time high above $108,000.
However, Bitcoin’s divergence from equities suggests a reduced correlation, raising hopes for a bullish 2025 and new all-time highs.Weakening Bitcoin-Equity Correlation
There has been a notable shift in the correlation between cryptocurrency and equities, particularly Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Since Donald Trump was elected as the 47th US President in November 2024, the two markets have been closely tied.
However, data from Santiment demonstrated Bitcoin gaining momentum, surging by over 3% in a single day compared to the S&P 500’s modest 0.4% rise.
This divergence is significant, as it suggestsBitcoinmight be decoupling from its perceived role as a “high-leveraged tech stock,” a reputation it has held for much of the past three years. Historically, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have achieved their strongest bull runs during periods of low correlation with traditional equity markets.
Experts also suggest that Bitcoin is ripe for the next leg up, with a crucial milestone being $140,000 in the coming months.Crypto Market in Later Stages of Bull Cycle?
This decoupling coincides with broader market indicators suggesting that the cryptocurrency market has entered the later stages of its current bull cycle, which began in January 2023.
As noted by CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin has seen significant growth in both price and duration, supported by a substantial influx of new and existing investments. The percentage of Bitcoin traded for less than a month, measured by realized market cap (UTXO), has reached 36%.
While this is lower than past cycle peaks, the long-term trend remains downward, indicating the market may peak by the first or the second quarter of 2025. In fact, analysts predict a sharp rise in this ratio 2-4 times before the market overheats, likely triggering the next bear cycle.