 Bitcoin drop under $75K before April has under 10% chance: Analyst 
2025-01-29
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Bitcoin has a slight chance of dropping nearly 26% in the first quarter of 2025 to around $75,000, a crypto analyst says — but other crypto commentators are less confident about a fall.
Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson said in a Jan. 28 markets report viewed by Cointelegraph that the probability of Bitcoin BTCUSD falling below $75,000 by March “has risen to 9.2%, up from 7.2% in the last 24 hours.” 
BTC faced volatility amid broad market downturn
Still, Bitcoin BTCUSD moving closer to $100,000 has slightly bumped that probability.
Dawson based this on Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility spiking from 52% to 76%, a sign of increased demand for put options “to protect against downside risk.”
Bitcoin dropped 6.5% on Jan. 27 to $97,906 amid a broader crypto and stock market decline triggered by the release of China-based artificial intelligence project DeepSeek’s latest AI model.
Bitcoin has since bounced back above the $100,000 mark, trading at $102,100 at the time of publication, per CoinMarketCap data.
Dawson said the slight uptick in the probability of Bitcoin heading back toward $75,000 “reflects a shift in market sentiment toward bearishness as traders adjust to rising uncertainty.”
The last time Bitcoin was trading near $75,000 was on Nov. 8, just three days after Donald Trump’s US presidential victory. It then went on a month-long rally that saw BTC reach the long-awaited $100,000 price level for the first time on Dec. 5.
BTC tied to “broader macroeconomic shifts”
Bitfinex analysts noted in a Jan. 27 market report that Bitcoin’s drop, following a broader stock market downturn, reinforces its correlation with the wider market.
“Bitcoin's price is less a standalone reflection of its market fundamentals and more tied to broader macroeconomic shifts, particularly in risk sentiment,” the analysts said.
“In our view, Bitcoin is no longer just a digital asset playing by its own rules — but is now firmly tethered to the broader risk asset landscape,” they added.
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could potentially pull back toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range, a move that may trigger a “mini financial crisis.”
According to Hayes, this could lead to a “resumption of money printing” that will send Bitcoin’s price to $250,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.