Bitwise CIO Explains Why Bitcoin Is ‘Surging Toward All-Time Highs’
2024-10-30

In a thread posted to the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) on October 29, Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, outlined his view on the factors that could propel Bitcoin to a significant price milestone, potentially reaching $200,000. Hougan shared the highlights from a conversation with a financial advisor, who questioned whether such a surge in Bitcoin’s price would necessitate a collapse of the U.S. dollar. Hougan’s response was clear: no dollar collapse is required. Instead, he suggested that Bitcoin’s value potential is based on its ongoing journey to establish itself as a “store of value” asset, as a digital alternative to gold.
According to Hougan, investing in Bitcoin is, in effect, a dual wager. Firstly, Hougan argued that Bitcoin must succeed in gaining acceptance as a reliable store of value, comparable to traditional assets like gold. 
Bitcoin currently represents about 7% of gold’s market cap, which sits at approximately $18 trillion. If Bitcoin were to grow to half of gold’s market size, Hougan estimates it would command a price of over $400,000 per coin. This assertion rests on the potential for Bitcoin to “mature,” ultimately reaching a stage where it is broadly accepted as a core asset for wealth preservation, particularly within institutional portfolios.
The second component of Hougan’s analysis considers the role of government fiscal policies on fiat currencies, including the dollar. Hougan suggested that increased demand for assets like Bitcoin is often fueled by what he sees as currency mismanagement or “abuse” by governments. As governments continue to increase money supply or engage in inflationary policies, Hougan believes the appeal of non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin grows, driving more people to seek out alternative stores of value.
Hougan emphasized that these two factors—Bitcoin’s maturation and growing demand for stable, store-of-value assets—are not only complementary but also compounding. In his words, if Bitcoin reaches its potential as a mainstream asset while the demand for alternative stores of value also expands, its price trajectory could accelerate even further, possibly toward a seven-figure valuation. Hougan considers this compounded growth scenario to be the most likely path forward for Bitcoin in the long term.
Earlier this month, Hougan published a memo that explained what needs to happen for Bitcoin to hit $80,000 by the end of the year. He says several factors must align for this price target to be achieved, with one additional element potentially pushing Bitcoin even higher.
Hougan first emphasized the role of the U.S. election in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. He explained that any result other than a complete “Democratic sweep” would be beneficial for the flagship cryptocurrency. While Republican victories are typically seen as favorable for Bitcoin due to the GOP’s pro-crypto stance, Hougan believes that even a more neutral approach from Democrats could help. He pointed out that recent comments by Representative Maxine Waters, who described crypto as “inevitable,” indicate a potential shift in the party’s stance. Hougan added that the threat to Bitcoin would come primarily from Democrats aligned with Senator Elizabeth Warren, whose “Anti-Crypto Army” has pushed for tighter regulation.
Economic conditions are another major factor Hougan highlighted. He explained that Bitcoin’s popularity is rooted in a widespread distrust of government-controlled money, which has been a key driver of the cryptocurrency’s appeal since its creation. Hougan pointed to recent events, such as the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and China’s massive 2 trillion yuan stimulus, as catalysts for Bitcoin’s recent growth. He noted that the market is now anticipating two more rate cuts from the Fed before the end of the year, along with additional global stimulus measures. According to Hougan, if these conditions are met, Bitcoin could experience a strong fourth-quarter rally.
Hougan also stressed the importance of avoiding negative surprises in the crypto market. He noted that unexpected events—such as major hacks, lawsuits, or the sudden release of previously locked Bitcoin from sources like Mt. Gox—have historically disrupted Bitcoin’s price movements. Hougan warned that if similar events occur again, they could keep Bitcoin’s price range-bound, preventing it from reaching the $80,000 target. However, he is optimistic that the absence of such surprises will allow the cryptocurrency to break out.
Lastly, Hougan suggested that a rally in the altcoin market could further accelerate Bitcoin’s rise. While Bitcoin doesn’t rely on altcoins for its long-term success, Hougan argued that excitement in other areas of the crypto market, such as stablecoins and new blockchain projects, could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. He noted that projects like Sui and Aptos and innovations like Babylon’s Bitcoin staking platform are gaining momentum and could contribute to a broader crypto rally.
As of 9:00 a.m. UTC on October 30, Bitcoin was trading at $72,311, up 1.9% in the past 24-hour period.
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