Copper.co analysts estimate Bitcoin could peak in 200 days, aligning with US recession projections
2024-11-13

Copper.co analysts estimate that, based on historical data, bitcoin's potential price peak could arrive around the end of May.
The analysts examined the historical growth of bitcoin’s market capitalization across different bull and bear cycles, in a report released Tuesday. They found that, on average, bitcoin’s cycles last around 756 days, from the point when its market cap growth turns positive until it reaches its price peak. As of now, bitcoin is on day 554 of its current cycle, which began around mid-2023, said Copper.co Head of Research Fadi Aboualfa.
"This timeline suggests that bitcoin could reach its peak in roughly 200 days, around mid-2025, based on the average cycle duration," Aboualfa said in an email sent to The Block.
Bitcoin averaged yearly market cap growth versus realized market cap. Image: Copper.co
Alignment with recession forecasts
The Copper.co report also noted that bitcoin’s projected peak could coincide with the possibility of a U.S. recession. The analysts highlighted a JPMorgan report that said there is a 45% chance of a recession occurring in the second half of 2025, which overlaps with their projected timing of bitcoin’s peak.
While bitcoin has historically demonstrated resilience in recessionary periods, this potential economic downturn could influence market sentiment and investor behavior toward the digital asset space, they added.
Potential for U.S. recession in second half of 2025. Image: Copper.co
Technical indicators indicate room for growth
Despite the potential for a recessionary environment in 2025, Copper.co analysts point to technical indicators, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggests bitcoin still has ample room for growth in the coming months.
"Currently, the RSI sits at 60 — well below previous bull market highs — indicating considerable room for bitcoin to continue building momentum into the new year," the report said.
As of the latest market data, the GMCI 30 index, representing the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap, is up 0.33% to 156.18. Bitcoin is now sitting at around $87,359. It's fallen back somewhat today after rallying hard yesterday — to the tune of around $9,000. Ether is trading flat at $3,262, and dogecoin has surged 11% to $0.35, according to The Block's Prices Page.
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