 Americans expect stock boost in 2025, along with global, political conflict 
2025-01-01
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Two-thirds of Americans expect the stock market to rise in 2025 but roughly the same portion of people expect it to be accompanied by more political conflict within the US and international discord, a survey shows. 
Management consulting firm Gallup surveyed up to 100,000 people registered in its multimode panel between Dec. 4-15, nearly a full month after Republican Donald Trump won the US election.
66% of respondents tipped 2025 to be a year when the stock market rises, marking a 30 percentage point increase from its 2023 outlook taken in December 2022 during a period of high inflation and low confidence in the economy. 
The most recent poll also shows only 23% of Americans expect “positive” political cooperation within the US under the Trump administration, while only 32% predict 2025 will be somewhat peaceful internationally.
The bearish figures are, however, an improvement from 2023’s 9% and 14% voting outcome for political cooperation and international peace.
The sentiment could have an impact on the crypto markets. History shows a sustained rise in the stock market can sometimes coincide with a Bitcoin BTCUSD rally, as investors show keenness to take more risk. 
Data from Bitcoin analytics platform Newhedge shows Bitcoin has a volatile correlation to the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), though some industry executives have pointed out that Bitcoin’s price movements are more closely tied to tech stocks.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin could also be in for a bumpier ride should there be more international disputes. 
Bitcoin tanked around 8% in an hour when Iran bombed Israel in a retaliatory attack on April 13 and also plummeted nearly 11% across Feb. 23 to 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, CoinGecko data shows.
That said, Bitcoin rallied when the local US banking system showed signs of fragility in early 2023 — as seen by the shock collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, to name a few.
Economic difficulty and China’s increasing power 
Gallup said overall, this year’s predictions offered more positivity than they did in 2022. 54% of respondents expect increasing or full employment, and 52% have predicted reasonable price growth. 
However, a larger share of respondents tipped 2025 as more likely a “year of economic difficulty” with a rising federal budget deficit along with an increase in China’s power.
The poll also split responses between Republicans, Democrats and Independents, which generally found Republicans more optimistic for the year ahead than Democrats. 
Gallup noted it is typical for Americans who identify with the new president’s party to be more optimistic for the year ahead.
The crypto market has also been generally positive in their forecasts for 2025. 
Some have tipped a far more crypto-friendly Trump administration and a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve to further bolster Bitcoin’s 2025 performance against the S&P 500 and other notable stock market indexes.
However, Gallup’s survey wrapped up before the Federal Reserve’s market committee bearishly trimmed the number of 2025 projected interest rate cuts from five to two in a Dec. 18 meeting, which could create a less favorable macro environment for the stock market and even more so for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.