Who Profited During Bitcoin’s $100,000 Surge? Analyst Breaks Down the Data
2024-12-27
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Bitcoin ongoing price movement has sparked intense analysis as it continues to hover below the $100,000 mark. Despite reaching an all-time high above $108,000 last week, the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain upward momentum ever since.
With this performance, BTC’s on-chain data has been brought to the spotlight to uncover the factors driving recent selling pressures and investor behavior. One key focus has been the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) indicator, which provides valuable insights into Bitcoin holders’ activity based on their holding periods.
Who Cashed Out Their Bitcoin Gains?
According to a CryptoQuant analyst known as Yonsei Dent, data reveals that Bitcoin investors who bought their holdings between six to twelve months ago were the most active sellers during the recent price surge.
This group largely entered the market during the initial excitement surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier in the year. While this selling activity exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, the asset has managed to stabilize within the $90,000–$100,000 range.
Interestingly, long-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for over a year, have shown minimal selling activity. Historical trends suggest that these seasoned investors are likely anticipating elevated price levels before considering substantial profit-taking.
Meanwhile, Dent pointed to the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric showing a noticeable decline in older Bitcoin being moved in December compared to November. Historically, reduced activity from long-term holders during price corrections often signals market resilience and potential for future upward momentum.
The analyst wrote:
The ‘Binary CDD’ indicator at the bottom of the chart shows a decline in the selling of older Bitcoin in December compared to November. This suggests that many long-term holders may anticipate even higher prices before selling.
Binance Reserves Signal Market Confidence
Speaking of higher prices, another crucial metric suggesting a significant move brewing for Bitcoin comes from Binance’s Bitcoin reserves, which have been steadily declining since August.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted that Binance’s reserves recently hit their lowest level since January. This trend is significant because a similar decline earlier in the year preceded a 90% surge in Bitcoin’s price.
The reduction in exchange reserves typically indicates that investors are moving their Bitcoin holdings away from centralized exchanges and into private wallets.
Such behavior suggests reduced selling pressure and a preference for long-term holding strategies. Historically, declining reserves on exchanges have often aligned with periods of strong market optimism and price rallies.
Notably, as BTC currently still trades at a price of $95,567 down by 2.7% in the past day, the confluence of these factors—long-term holder confidence, reduced activity from older wallets, and declining exchange reserves—presents a cautiously optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
However, it is cautioned that sustained buying activity will be required to break through psychological resistance levels and maintain upward momentum.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView