Bitcoin price still on track for $180K in 2025: Interview with Filbfilb
2025-01-17
Category: None

Bitcoin BTCUSD hitting $130,000 would be a “great result” for the current bull market, longtime trader and analyst Filbfilb says.
In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader gives his predictions on where BTC price action may be headed this cycle.
Trump, trade wars and record Bitcoin dominance
Bitcoin is bouncing back after a trip to two-month lows and is holding well above $100,000 as of Jan. 17, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
For Filbfilb, good things lie in wait — especially with the incoming US government administration under President-elect Donald Trump.
Pro-Bitcoin and pro-crypto policies could well offer a short-term market impulse, but it may not all be plain sailing — any talk of trade wars, for instance, could strike a punishing blow to the risk-asset bull run.
That said, BTCUSD should lead the pack, with Bitcoin even hitting new highs in crypto market dominance, Filbfilb says. 
Can a 2023 target of $180,000 for the next macro top become reality? Continue reading to discover more.
Cointelegraph (CT): A lot of hype is forming around the inauguration and possible executive orders right now. If these fail to meet expectations, where do you see Bitcoin and altcoins heading in the short term?
Filbfilb (FF): I had anticipated a bumpy open to the year with a recovery in the second part of the month, which is what we have seen so far. 
Over this period, we’ve seen that Bitcoin is doing better than risk-on assets when they are performing well (and the DXY is relatively stable); if Trump delivers some quick wins shortly after taking office, Bitcoin could outperform equities. 
Regarding the pricing of the executive rights order and the speed of delivery of that, I think the market has probably priced this fairly as it currently stands; I don’t think the reason Bitcoin is trading at $100,000 is because people believe this would happen straight away. If something like this is ruled out I’m sure there would be a dip, but probably an overreaction and perhaps an opportunity. 
CT: You recently called out “FUD” regarding MicroStrategy stock (MSTR) performance. How do you imagine it playing out this year? Are you worried about a major retracement?
FF: MSTR is a difficult one; the continued leveraging of the balance sheet is a bold move, for sure. My comments were about whether MSTR was a “ponzi scheme,” which it is not by definition, but that does not mean it comes without risk. 
At present, the Premium over net asset value (NAV) is around 2, which is what we've seen when Bitcoin was consolidating around $60,000-$70,000. The price of MSTR is currently some way below the highs seen previously. 
If Bitcoin goes on a run above $100,000, we may see MSTR spike again, helped by the premium accelerating as money chases Bitcoin returns. So, short term I'm not too concerned about a major retracement for MSTR, unless there is a big pullback in Bitcoin. Longer term it's not impossible for MSTR to have an issue servicing its debt, but that is another conversation and probably over a longer time horizon. 
CT: What bull market risks do you see potentially playing out other than US government policy decisions?
FF: Ultimately, US policy will dictate the market in one way or another, no matter the input. 
CT: BTC has cooled its bull run and delivered a roughly 20% dip — is it premature to call “altseason?” Is the classic BTC→large alts→small alts bull market cycle still relevant?
FF: My view is that if Bitcoin takes another leg higher, overall Bitcoin dominance will make new highs for this run. There will be outliers, of course, like we've seen recently with XRP, but I think Bitcoin will lead the way one last time if the market is to move on up. 
Bitcoin above $130,000 would change the dynamic — people will have made major returns in the space and would probably draw in retail significantly.
CT: BTC price expectations for 2025 vary wildly, and bearish takes don’t rule out March’s old highs returning. What do you think is a possible range (and high) for the rest of the year?
FF: I see no evidence based on previous cyclical data which would imply that Bitcoin has topped for now. Clearly, it might be different this time, but I think there’s a reasonable argument that Bitcoin could go on toward the $180,000 target I had been looking at in early 2023. 
CT: Which indicators are you using to track the bull market this time around?
FF: I'm generally using the market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score, looking at the extent to which the market is outperforming returns above cost. I also use my logarithmic model, Predator, which has been my go-to indicator across cycles, as well as the Pi cycle top indicator and Coinbase app ranking. 
If all these things, or most of them, are saying there is a problem, then it's almost certainly going to be worth paying attention to. 
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.