Tracking Bitcoin’s Profit Cycles: Could A New Market High Be Near?
2024-11-02

Bitcoin price has seen many cycles over the years, marked by distinct growth phases, peaks, and corrections. To better understand these cycles, a CryptoQuant analyst, using the pseudonym ‘datascope,’ has highlighted the relevance of the UTXO Block Profit/Loss (P/L) Count Ratio Model.
This tool offers unique insights into the balance of profitability and losses among Bitcoin market participants, serving as a lens to examine potential price reversals.
By focusing on various moving averages, this model tracks price fluctuations and shows how profitability shifts within the market over time, offering clues about when new market peaks might form.
Predicting Market Peaks Through Profit And Loss Ratios
Datascope’s analysis highlights the significance of short, medium, and long-term trends captured by 7-day, 30-day, and 365-day moving averages.
This multi-perspective approach is valuable for long-term investors and short-term traders, as it distinguishes between shifts impacting immediate market movements and those affecting longer-term cycles.
The model demonstrates that changes in the profitability ratio are critical for gauging market sentiment and potential price movements.
As Datascope explains, a decrease in overall profitability ratios suggests that short- and medium-term trading strategies may now be more practical, responding to a market less defined by extreme long-term price swings.
One of the key findings from the UTXO P/L model is the behavior of the 30-day profit and loss ratio relative to the 365-day moving average. Datascope noted that when the 30-day ratio rises above the 365-day average, it could signal a new price peak.
In simple terms, crossing short- and long-term profitability lines indicates that investor sentiment is shifting towards more profitable conditions. Price increases have historically followed this occurrence as optimism fuels further buying pressure.
For instance, the analyst pointed out that while economic conditions varied between 2021 and 2022, similar trends were observed in the model during both years, particularly in how the profit and loss ratio used the annual moving average as a resistance line.
Datascope suggests that if the profit and loss metrics consistently stay above the annual average, Bitcoin may be on track to establish new highs.
Bitcoin Market Performance
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is seeing an increase in price following a recent correction that led to the asset’s price falling below $70,000 yesterday.
Bitcoin currently trades for $70,379, down by 0.9% in the past day. Before this decrease, the asset experienced a surge, recording a 24-hour of $71,500.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView