Bitcoin, Gold Could Benefit From Rising Geopolitical Tension and U.S. Election: JPMorgan
2024-10-04

Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the 'debasement trade,' and this favors both bitcoin {{BTC}} and gold, JPMorgan JJPM said in a research report on Wednesday.
"A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the 'debasement trade' both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy ('debt debasement')," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.
Markets aren't pricing in a victory for the former president just yet. The chances of a Trump election win are currently priced in with a low probability looking at other asset classes other than gold and bitcoin, the report said, adding that this is because investors have been preoccupied with the recession trade in recent months.
If the "Trump trade" plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said. This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets.
JPMorgan noted that in the six month window around the 2016 American election, 5-year Treasury yields rose 1%, the Dollar Index (DXY) surged 8%, U.S. equities outperformed to the tune of 6%, banks beat the rest of of S&P 500 stock index by 15% and high grade corporate credit spreads tightened significantly.
Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, investment bank Standard Chartered said in a report yesterday.