Bitcoin Advocates See Potential, But US Reserve Adoption Remains Uncertain
2024-12-29
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The prospect of the United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves remains highly debated.
Many experts consider the chances slim, especially in the near term, as uncertainty dominates discussions within the crypto community.
Bitcoin Reserve Odds Drop as US Policy Analysts Predict Pushback
Prediction platforms and analysts present contrasting views on the likelihood of Bitcoin entering the US reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. This marks a steep drop from post-election optimism, where odds reached 60%.
This decline reflects broader skepticism about Bitcoin’s place in US financial policy. Proponents view Bitcoin as a natural complement to existing reserves, such as gold and oil. Critics, however, argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make this move unlikely.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts the feasibility of the US adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset under Trump’s administration. He suggests that such a shift would only occur if the nation’s global economic dominance faced a significant threat.
Ju drew parallels between today’s Bitcoin advocates and past campaigns for a return to the gold standard. In both cases, these efforts positioned alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainties.
However, historical trends suggest resistance to single-asset reliance. For example, calls to reinstate the gold standard in the late 1990s were dismissed, with the US opting to innovate its way out of economic challenges. Ju predicts Bitcoin may face similar pushback unless the country’s economic standing weakens.
“If Trump succeeds in showcasing U.S. economic resilience, reinforcing the dollar’s supremacy, and boosting his approval ratings, it’s unclear if he would maintain the strong pro-Bitcoin stance he demonstrated during his campaign. He could easily step back from his Bitcoin advocacy, citing changing priorities, without alienating his voter base,” Ju stated.
Despite skepticism, some experts champion Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping global finance. Mathew Sigel of VanEck recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Sigel envisions Bitcoin becoming a leading settlement currency in global trade, particularly for nations seeking to bypass US sanctions.
Meanwhile, some market observers believe that the move could become implemented by 2026. Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market platform open to US participants, places the odds of the Bitcoin development occurring by January 2026 at 56%.