 Bitcoin chart pattern hints at sub $80K drop: BNB, AAVE, XMR and VIRTUAL still look strong 
2024-12-30
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Bitcoin BTCUSD could not hold on to the recovery attempts during the week, signaling selling by the bears at higher levels. Although buyers failed to push the price above $100,000, they have not ceded much ground to the sellers. This suggests that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate another leg higher.
Crypto mining firm Blockware Solutions said in a market forecast report viewed by Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s base case target for 2025 is $225,000. Even the bear case target of $150,000 is way higher than the current price. The bull case target is a hefty $400,000.
Along with Bitcoin, traders also seem to be bullish on Ether ETHUSD. The United States spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed massive inflows of over $2.5 billion in December, nearly double that of November. Asset management firm VanEck has a target of more than $6,000 for Ether in 2025.
What are the critical support levels on Bitcoin that may start a rebound? Let’s look at the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the near term if the sentiment turns bullish.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin closed below the 50-day simple moving average ($96,124) on Dec. 27, indicating that the bulls are losing their grip.
Buyers tried to push the price back above the 50-day SMA on Dec. 28, but the bears held their ground. The 20-day exponential moving average ($97,257) has started to turn down, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to bears.
The BTCUSDT pair could slide to the $90,000 support, where the bulls are expected to mount a strong defense. If the price rebounds off $90,000 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal solid demand at lower levels.
Buyers will have to drive the price above $100,000 to seize control. The pair may then climb to $108,353.
The 4-hour chart is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, which will complete on a break and close below the neckline. If the price stays below the neckline, the pair could plummet to $85,000 and then to the pattern target of $76,647.
This negative view is likely to be invalidated in the near term if buyers push and maintain the price above $100,000. That could open the doors for a retest of the all-time high at $108,353. If this level is crossed, the pair may jump to $124,206.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been oscillating between $635 and $722 for the past few days, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
The bears are defending the $722 level, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($694). This suggests that the bulls have kept up the pressure and are trying to overcome the barrier at $722. If they succeed, the BNBUSDT pair could pick up momentum and rise to $760 and later to $794.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the moving averages, it will signal that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. The bears will gain the upper hand on a break below the uptrend line.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are defending the $740 level. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the pair above $740. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $761 and later to $794.
On the contrary, a break and close below the 20-EMA will suggest that the bulls have given up. The bears will gain the upper hand on a break and close below $680. That could sink the pair to $635.
Aave Token price analysis
Aave (AAVE) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($329).
The upsloping 20-day EMA indicates that bulls have an edge, but the RSI near the midpoint suggests that the momentum is slowing down. If the price plunges below the 20-day EMA, the AAVEUSDT pair could drop to $261.
If buyers want to retain the advantage, they will have to swiftly drive the price above $362. If they manage to do that, the pair could retest the overhead resistance at $400. Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense at $400, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may start the next leg of the uptrend toward $450.
The pair has formed a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.
If the price rises and stays above the moving averages, the pair may rise to the resistance line. A break and close above the triangle will increase the likelihood of the resumption of the uptrend.
Alternatively, the pair may drop to the support line if the price stays below the moving averages.
Monero price analysis
Monero (XMR) has been attempting to start a recovery for the past few days but is facing stiff resistance at $203.
The 20-day EMA ($193) is flattish, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. If the price stays above the 20-day EMA, the prospects of a break above $203 increase. The XMRUSDT pair may rally to $216 and then to $234.
If the price breaks and stays below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may spend some more time inside the $180 to $203 range. The bears will be in the driver’s seat if they sink the price below $180.
The pair has formed a bullish ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, which will complete on a break and close above $203. If that happens, the pair could rally toward its pattern target of $228.
Instead, if the price breaks below the support line, it will invalidate the bullish setup. The failure of a bullish setup is a bearish sign as it traps several aggressive bulls. That could start a downward move to $180.
Virtuals Protocol price analysis
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) resumed its uptrend after breaking out of the stiff overhead resistance at $3.33 on Dec. 27.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2.71) suggests that buyers are in control, but the negative divergence on the RSI signals that the positive momentum may be slowing down. The VIRTUAL/USDT pair may rise to $4 and above it to $4.79.
On the downside, a break and close below $3.33 will be the first sign of weakness. The pair may then drop to the 20-day EMA, which is a crucial level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with force, the bulls will again try to resume the uptrend. A break and close below the 20-day EMA could start a deeper correction toward $2.
Both moving averages are sloping up, and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating an advantage to buyers. The 20-EMA is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. If this support cracks, the pair may decline to the 50-SMA. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the 50-SMA because the pair may plunge to $2 if the level breaks down.
On the other hand, if the price remains above the 20-EMA, the possibility of a rally to $4 increases. Sellers are expected to pose a strong challenge at $4.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.