VanEck predicts Q1 2025 crypto correction before Q4 all-time highs
2024-12-14
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VanEck expects the cryptocurrency bull market to hit a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year, the asset manager said in a Dec. 13 blog post.
“At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin BTCUSD to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum ETHUSD trading above $6,000,” VanEck said in a blog post authored by head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel. 
“Other prominent projects, such as Solana SOLUSD and Sui (SUI), could exceed $500 and $10, respectively,” the post said.
Before reaching these highs, VanEck expects to see “a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer.”
Alternative cryptocurrencies, or “altcoins,” refer to digital assets besides BTC.
Sustained funding rates above 10% on BTC perpetual futures exchanges would indicate “speculative excess,” suggesting the crypto market has reached a local top, VanEck said.
In July and September, VanEck’s Sigel said he expects BTC to reach as high as $2.9 million per coin by 2050 and ETH to rise as high as $22,000 per token by 2030.
2025 market drivers
Other analysts see events unfolding similarly. According to Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research, the BTC price could sink by 30% before resuming its bullish run.
“Historical data trends show that Bitcoin may still correct as much as 30% before it reaches its cyclical top,” the analyst told Cointelegraph on Nov. 27.
This is partly because United States markets generally correct after Presidential inaugurations. President-elect Donald Trump will take office on Jan. 20. 
VanEck also predicts that in 2025 the US will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve and regulators will approve more crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), hastening institutional crypto adoption. 
“With new SEC leadership, multiple new spot crypto ETPs will be approved. Ethereum ETPs will include staking, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs will allow in-kind transactions and redemptions,” VanEck said.
On Dec. 12, Sygnum Bank, a crypto-focused asset manager, said institutional adoption could trigger “demand shocks” next year, causing BTC’s spot price to spike. 
Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said up to a 2% portfolio allocation is “reasonable” for investors who wish to hold BTC. 