Coinbase exec claims Satoshi may have still been active onchain as late as 2014
2025-02-06
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Coinbase director Conor Grogan claims to have identified wallets belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, showing Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator was still active onchain as late as 2014.
Nakamoto’s final known message — "I’ve moved on to other things. It's in good hands with Gavin and everyone," — was sent in April 2011 to developer Mike Hearn as part of an email exchange, marking his departure from active involvement in the Bitcoin project.
While Nakamoto had already become less involved in the months leading up to this, the timing coincided with new lead developer Gavin Andresen’s visit to the CIA, sparking speculation about a possible connection. Many still believe that Nakamoto may simply have chosen to remain anonymous or disengage from the project for personal reasons. Others think that the sudden disappearance could indicate that Nakamoto may have passed away or that something happened to prevent continued work.
Grogan’s claim is based on a set of “Patoshi Pattern” Bitcoin addresses recently cataloged by the blockchain analytics platform Arkham. While the addresses can’t definitively be linked to Nakamoto, “there is good evidence,” the Coinbase director said on X.
Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated holdings of approximately 1.1 million BTC ($109 billion) would make the Bitcoin creator wealthier on paper than Bill Gates, Grogan noted. Nakamoto's potential holdings are based on a detailed analysis of early Bitcoin mining patterns conducted by researchers such as Sergio Demian Lerner, who identified this specific "Patoshi Pattern" in the blockchain.
Lerner observed a distinct mining pattern in the early Bitcoin blocks, believed to belong to Satoshi, which consistently avoided mining consecutive blocks to maintain network decentralization.
However, some researchers argue the figure could be overstated due to overlapping mining patterns or unverified assumptions about Nakamoto's activity during Bitcoin's early days, suggesting it could be more like 600,000 BTC to 700,000 BTC. Others have estimated Satoshi's bitcoin holdings to be as high as 1.5 million BTC.
Was Bitcoin’s creator Canadian, and does Kraken know Nakamoto’s identity?
Grogan identified 24 outbound sends from these Bitcoin addresses, with the most popular destination being to an address beginning “1PYYj,” which has also received bitcoin from the Canadian exchange CaVirtEx. “I believe this is the first documented onchain between a Satoshi-linked wallet and a CEX,” he said. While Canadian exchanges are primarily designed for Canadian residents, many support international users.
“1PYYj” is also associated with another Bitcoin address beginning “12ib7” — one of the largest value addresses of all time, holding $3 billion worth of bitcoin today. “This lends credence to the link that 1PYYj was associated with Satoshi or a very early adopter/contributor,” Grogan argued.
In October 2024, the HBO documentary “Money Electric” suggested that early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd, a Canadian, is Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Todd was quick to deny the connection, while others pointed out an overlooked detail undermining the documentary’s case.
CaVirtEx was bought by the crypto exchange giant Kraken in 2016, with Grogan speculating co-founder Jesse Powell or others at Kraken may know the true identity of Nakamoto if KYC information connected to the wallet was maintained. “My advice to him would be to delete the data,” Grogan said.
Both Kraken and Powell have never definitively claimed to know who Satoshi is. Powell has stated in prior interviews that he believes Satoshi Nakamoto is likely an individual or a group of individuals with significant technical expertise and that some within the cryptocurrency community might know who Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator is.
Responding to Grogan, Kraken’s official X account simply stated, “We are all Satoshi.” The Block reached out to Kraken for comment.
“At the very least, this will allow us to get evidence once and for all to determine if the Patoshi mining pattern is definitely linked to only Satoshi,” Grogan added. “This is the first set of evidence I've seen in years that has decreased my confidence that Satoshi was Len [Sassaman]” — a renowned cryptographer and privacy advocate linked to Bitcoin who died in 2011. “This research gives me MORE confidence that these coins aren't moving and Satoshi is no longer active. No movement in any connected wallets through 2014 is very bullish!”
Last month, Grogan claimed to have identified 430 BTC associated with the recently released Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, which had been untouched for 13 years.
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