Chance of Bitcoin Tanking to $75K Doubles as Trump's Tariffs Ignite Trade War, Derive's Onchain Options Market Shows
2025-02-03
Category: None

Bitcoin's BTCUSD on-chain options market on Derive.xyz indicates a 22% probability of prices falling to $75,000 by March 28, a notable rise from last week's 10% chance.
The sharp rise in probability follows a renewed import tariff war between the U.S. and its top trading partners, Canada, Mexico and China and concerns it will add to inflation in the global economy, making it difficult for central banks, including the Fed, to cut interest rates.
“The recent tariffs imposed by Trump, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese goods, are likely to lead to increased inflation, which could dampen investor sentiment in crypto markets," Derive said in an email. 
Andre Dragosch, head of Europe at Bitwise, said on X, that tariffs are sending shock waves via USD strngth & contraction in global money supply.
Bitcoin has already dropped 11% to $93,700 in four days, CoinDesk data shows. ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $2,200 early Monday, the lowest since Aug. 5.
BTC appears on track to complete a double top reversal pattern, which would open the doors for a drop to $75,000. 
Recently, Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, said that BTC will first drop to around $75,000 before chalking out a bigger bull run. 
The broader outlook, however, remains constructive, according to Derive.
"We’re seeing a number of active spot ETF filings for assets like DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC from major players like Bitwise and Grayscale. If the SEC approves these, it will signal greater legitimacy for the digital asset industry and trigger more capital inflows, potentially driving prices upward," Derive told CoinDesk, noting the momentum for creating strategic BTC reserves in several U.S. states.
Dragosch expects the Fed to eventually step in, putting a floor under asset prices. 
"At some point, Fed will need to reignite QE to curb the Dollar from rising further and to stop a continued tightening in financial conditions & deceleration in global growth," Bitwise's Dragosch noted. 