Will The US Elections Propel Bitcoin Past $74,000? Key Metrics To Track This Week
2024-11-06

In the wake of the US presidential election, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing the expected volatility that often accompanies major political events. Tuesday’s trading saw the largest cryptocurrency fluctuating between $68,000 and $70,000, with the latter level acting as resistance since Saturday.
Market analysis firm Crypto Birb has released insights into the potential impacts of the election on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, suggesting that, based on current indicators, Bitcoin could reach new record highs above $73,700 in the days following the election. 
Bitcoin Price Could Soar To Over $263,000
In a recent social media update, Crypto Birb highlighted several key figures for traders and investors, including the upward trends in the 200-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs), currently at $59,200 and $40,700, respectively, which point to a bullish long-term outlook for the Bitcoin price.
The firm notes the presence of over $470 billion in volume from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in BTC, further contributing to market liquidity, which is critical for Bitcoin’s price movements to the upside. 
However, a market bloat of 51%, measured by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin holders are in profit, potentially leading to increased selling pressure if prices rise too quickly. 
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV-Z Ratio), currently at 1.86, projects a potential price target of over $263,000, suggesting substantial room for growth. 
Notably, Bitcoin’s low correlation of 0.16 with the S&P 500 indicates that its price movements are largely independent of traditional equity markets, which could attract investors seeking diversification.
Historical Trends Suggest Strong November Ahead
Despite the bullish long-term outlook, the firm suggests that traders should be cautious of short-term volatility. Crypto Birb noted that the market is experiencing a spike in “price randomness,” common occurrence during election cycles. 
Key resistance levels are identified at $70,700 and $72,000, which could prove critical in determining Bitcoin’s immediate path. The daily trend shows that $70,000 is a pivotal breakout point, and the firm suggests that a successful move above this threshold could trigger further upward momentum to retest all-time high records.
The firm also highlights the current sentiment in the crypto market, which is currently characterized by a “Fear and Greed” index reading of 70, indicating a state of greed among investors. 
Crypto Birb contends that this sentiment often leads to heightened buying activity but can also signal a potential pullback if prices rise too quickly. Additionally, mining costs are estimated at around $80,700, suggesting miners are operating at a loss if Bitcoin remains below this threshold. 
Further strengthening the case for Bitcoin, historical data shows that November has been a strong month for BTC, with an average gain of 14.96% over the past nine years. This means that if the cryptocurrency follows past movements, it could reach $79,000 by the end of the month. 
In addition, the fourth quarter of the past few years has shown an average gain of 50.86%, with the maximum quarterly gain recorded at 470.44%, suggesting that BTC could be poised for a significant rally in the coming weeks, regardless of the US election results between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
When writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market was trading at $69,830, up 3% in the 24-hour time frame. 
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 