Bitcoin’s Latest ATH: Is The Top Finally In Or Just Getting Started?
2025-01-25
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In the past months, Bitcoin has broken multiple resistance levels to achieve consistent all-time highs each month. So far, the asset’s latest all-time high sits above $109,000 marking a more than 150% increase in year-over-year performance.
Amid this price performance, CryptoQuant analyst Gaah has recently examined Bitcoin’s current position in the market cycle and whether the asset might be nearing a peak.
Bitcoin: Is The Top In?
According to Gaah’s analysis, the Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI)—a composite metric that includes on-chain data points like the Puell Multiple, MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR—has entered the “distribution region” for the first time in eight months.
While this doesn’t “yet confirm a market top,” it serves as a cautionary signal that Bitcoin could be approaching the final stages of its current bull cycle. For IBCI to hit a definitive top, all its components would need to reach their historical peak levels, according to the analyst.
However, as long as the IBCI remains above 50%, the broader market trend remains bullish, indicating continued demand and the potential for further price increases.
Beyond the IBCI, Gaah notes that additional on-chain indicators present a mixed picture. While the NUPL metric hovers near its upper range, suggesting a possible end to the bull run, the Puell Multiple remains closer to the lower zone, which could indicate room for continued growth.
This interplay of signals suggests that the market may not have reached a definitive top just yet. According to Gaah, historically, a fully realized IBCI peak has preceded corrections and longer-term bear phases. However, the current position offers room for optimism, provided that demand remains strong and other indicators remain supportive.
Another Diverging Interpretation
In contrast to Gaah’s cautious perspective, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, highlights a different scenario using the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. This metric, designed to spot local tops and bottoms, recently fell to its lowest point in 60 days, signaling a potential “local bottom.”
Kesmeci explains that historically when the NVT Golden Cross drops below -1.6, it often indicates that the asset is trading within a bottom range. As Bitcoin recently pulled back by about 7.5% after reaching its all-time high, the metric’s current reading could be a precursor to renewed upward momentum. Kesmeci wrote:
Rather than indicating a specific price level, this metric suggests that Bitcoin may be trading within a local bottom zone. Historically, such signals have often preceded recovery and trend reversals, making it an important indicator to monitor.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView