Bitcoin Nears $70K Amid Record Open Interest at $40B as Trump-Harris Election Nears
2024-10-21

Bitcoin BTCUSD neared $70,000 earlier Monday as bullish sentiment from the forthcoming U.S. elections gains more momentum among crypto traders. 
BTC rose 1.5% in the past 24 hours, CoinDesk data shows, steadily rising through Sunday. The notional open interest on USD-denominated bitcoin futures across all tracked major exchanges crossed $40.63 billion over the weekend, setting a lifetime first. 
In token terms, open interest was 592,000 BTC, the highest since December 2022 when the cryptocurrency traded below $20,000 amid a peak bearish sentiment. 
Cash-margin open interest reached a new all-time high last week, with futures offered on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) accounting for 40% of the total as it crossed $11 billion on the bourse.
Open interest refers to unsettled futures bets and indicates new money entering the market. A rise in the metric, alongside a price increase, confirms an uptrend.
“The recent break of 68k was accompanied by about $2.4B in new BTC inflows over the past 6 sessions, along with a corresponding spike in BTC futures OI, which is a constructive indicator for new longs being established,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto wealth management firm SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message Monday.
Meanwhile, a critical open interest-based ratio tracked by CryptoQuant shows a sudden spike from 0.20 to 0.21 as BTC’s price rose by $2,000, indicative of increased leveraged bets on the asset.
A bump in leverage indicates increased risk tolerance, which may contribute to market volatility - and higher liquidations - in the coming weeks.
Broader market rally
A jump in bitcoin led to higher prices throughout the crypto market.
Solana’s SOL rose over 7% as a speculative frenzy of memecoins returned to the network, this time with an artificial intelligence theme. Ether ETHUSD, Cardano’s ADA, BNB Chain BNBUSD and XRP rose as much as 4%, while major memecoins dogecoin DOGEUSD and shiba inu SHIBUSD added 3%.
ApeCoin’s APE led market growth among mid-caps with a 21% jump in the past 24 hours, cheering the debut of its native blockchain network ApeChain. Expectations among traders is that APE could see boosted usage as tokens are issued on the new network - although steady long-term usage remains to be seen.
Focus on U.S. election
All eyes are on the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S. scheduled for November 5, with traders expecting a run-up in the days to come.
Polymarket bettors have placed odds at 60% on Republican Donald Trump, with Democrat Kamala Harris at 39% as of Monday morning.
“With the focus on the U.S. election results being front and center, the most positive outcome for crypto would be a Trump win along with a Republican sweep (of House & Senate), allowing the Trump/Vance endorsed digital asset reform plans to have a realistic chance of passing through congress,” SOFA’s Fan told CoinDesk.
Traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a weekend broadcast that macroeconomic factors in Japan and China, coupled with the U.S. elections, would boost BTC prices.
“In Japan, inflation remains weak with headline inflation at 2.5%, down from 3.0%,” QCP traders said in the broadcast. “Market expectations indicate that the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates soon, contributing to a rally in USD/JPY, which is currently below 150.
“Meanwhile, China cut its benchmark lending rates after the central bank lowered interest rates at the end of September as part of a series of measures aimed at reviving economic growth and halting a housing market crash,” they said.
“With US equities close to all-time highs and the Japanese yen on a fresh weakening trend, risk-on sentiment will only grow stronger as we approach the US election. This will propel risk assets higher and support our Uptober narrative,” the note ended, referring to bitcoin’s historically bullish October seasonality.