Bitcoin could test its all-time high above $73,000 on day of US election, says Standard Chartered analyst
2024-10-24

Bitcoin could approach its all-time high of over $73,000 on Nov. 5, the day of the U.S. presidential election, according to Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick. Kendrick bases his forecast on an analysis of bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.
"We use daily bitcoin volume levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves. Our base case is that the bitcoin price will be around $73,000 on election day," Kendrick said in an email on Thursday.
He also noted that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, options breakeven points suggest a potential price increase of about 4% once the election results are known, with a possible total rise of around 10% in the following days.
The analyst emphasized that the dynamics of the options market provide insights into potential initial post-election price movements, with heavy open interest in BTC call options expiring on Dec. 27 at the $80,000 strike price, suggesting rapid movement toward that level.
Republican sweep of Congress could drive prices higher
"If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target for bitcoin could rise to $125,000," he said. Conversely, Kendrick indicated that if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, bitcoin may initially dip but the digital asset is expected to end 2024 at around the $75,000 mark.
Kendrick pointed to recent trading activity as a positive indicator for bitcoin prices. "Bitcoin prices have been driven higher in recent weeks, coinciding with other trades popular among Trump supporters. Current betting odds for a Trump victory stand at 59%, according to RealClearPolitics, while specific markets like Polymarket suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins."
The Standard Chartered global head of digital assets research added that Wednesday's dip in the bitcoin price to a local low of $65,200 is likely to be the last before the U.S. presidential election.
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