Bitcoin Still Following Previous Cycle's Trajectory Despite Price Drop: Van Straten
2025-02-04
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Bitcoin BTCUSD continues to follow the trajectory of its 2017 cycle. Despite recent market turbulence, driven by escalating tariff tensions between the U.S and its neighbouring countries, as well as China. 
Bitcoin remains up approximately 525% from its cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022. Comparatively, at the same stage in the 2017 cycle, bitcoin had risen 533%.
While, another method for evaluating bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is by measuring returns from previous all-time highs. The last cycle's market peak occurred in April 2021 at approximately $64,000, although in nominal terms, bitcoin’s all-time high was $69,000 in November 2021. 
However, many on-chain indicators suggest that April 2021 marked the cycle’s true top. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable consistency in tracking previous cycles.
In addition, bitcoin BTCUSD has remained range-bound within a $90,000 to $109,000 channel for the past 2.5 months, even amid heightened market volatility. Bitcoin continues to test both the upper and lower bounds of its current trading channel. 
Meanwhile, previous CoinDesk research identified $91,000 as a local bottom for bitcoin. 