Wall Street eyes significant upside for Strategy’s stock as reserves near 500,000 BTC
2025-02-08
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Wall Street analysts remain bullish on Michael Saylor’s recently renamed Strategy stock’s prospects following its most recent quarterly earnings report. 
“While some may see the company’s BTC acquisition strategy as risky, we see an emerging and rational cadence to acquisition activity here,” Canaccord Genuity’s Joseph Vafi wrote in a note. “[E]xploiting periods of very high demand with heightened acquisition activity, while still consistently being buyers during periods of more normalized demand.”
The company on Wednesday reported a net loss of $670.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, or a loss of $3.03 per diluted share, due in large part to a $1 billion impairment adjustment on its bitcoin holdings, and recorded total revenues of $120.7 million.
Strategy reported a year-to-date BTC Yield of 74.3%, a measure it uses to assess the performance of its bitcoin strategy, besting its previous high of 47.3% in 2021. It also raised its 2025 BTC yield target from 6-10% to 15% or greater.
The fourth quarter marked its largest-ever increase in quarterly bitcoin holdings, culminating in the acquisition of 218,887 BTC acquired for $20.5 billion. Strategy currently holds 471,107 bitcoin with a market value of about $45 billion.
The company also introduced a "BTC gain" target, which measures the annual value generation of MSTR’s bitcoin treasury operations, of $10 billion.
“Given the significant number of BTCs that MSTR already holds on its balance sheet, the BTC gain target of $10bn is nominally very large and can prove to be a competitive advantage (e.g. first mover & scale) relative to other companies that may attempt to deploy similar BTC treasury strategies,” Mizuho Securities analyst led by Dan Dolev wrote in a note to clients.
Accounting change could lead to S&P 500
​​Keefe, Bruyette & Woods suggested Strategy’s addition to the S&P 500 index “could be on the horizon” after the company adopted the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (FASB) updated accounting standard last month. Digital asset values on a company's books previously had to be marked down when prices fell but could not be adjusted upward if prices rose unless sold.
This will lead to a one-time cumulative adjustment of $12.75 billion to the opening balance of its retained earnings, according to Bernstein, which would enable Strategy to recognize unrealized gains on its bitcoin position for the first time.
“Beginning in Q1CY25 financials, the carrying value of bitcoin will align with its market value, allowing MSTR to report any appreciation in bitcoin’s price as a gain in its net income,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note.
To be considered for S&P 500 inclusion, companies must show positive earnings in the latest quarter and the previous four quarters.
“A massive value unlock will be when applications are developed on top of the Bitcoin protocol as it is the most secure, decentralized and valuable public network,” ​​Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bill Papanastasiou said, according to CNBC. “Down the road, MSTR could represent a consolidator and strategic director of future ecosystem development that drives greater utility and use cases, which could help transform Bitcoin into a more productive asset. Strategy’s participation could also help ‘bootstrap’ applications that compete directly with other smart contract platforms.”
BTC’s 2025 a positive for MSTR
The Trump Administration has warmly welcomed Bitcoin, including a working order to pursue a potential strategic digital assets reserve.
Strategy introduced “BTC Gain,” which was created to quantify the amount of shareholder value created by the company’s treasury operations in bitcoin terms, while “BTC $ Gain” expresses the same concept in dollar terms. 
The BTC $ Gain target of $10 billion for 2025 would represent a decline from the $13.1 billion it realized in that metric during 2024. “It showed conclusively that management has no intention of slowing its pace of bitcoin acquisition any time soon,” Benchmark’s Mark Palmer wrote in a note.
Strategy thus far in 2025 has generated a BTC $ Gain of $1.3 billion, which translates to a BTC Yield of 2.9%. During MSTR’s post-earnings conference call, Saylor said BTC $ Gain would provide a means through which investors could measure the amount of bitcoin captured by the company in a non-dilutive fashion, Palmer noted.
“If we treat BTC $Gain as earnings, MSTR would currently be trading at less than 10x earnings, which we argue is what a lot of the Street is missing about MSTR’s capital markets flywheel,” Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brett Knoblauch said, according to CNBC. To hit that $10 billion target, the company would need to raise about $19 billion at a premium of 110%, which Cantor said is “feasible” given the seasonality and regulatory tailwinds.
21/21 plan and MSTR stock performance
Strategy unveiled its "21/21 Plan " in October. The plan targets $42 billion in capital over the next three years, split evenly between $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed-income securities. Since then, the company has raised $20.3 billion in capital, including $16.7 billion in equity and $3.6 billion in fixed-income securities.
“Management indicated that one aspect of MSTR’s strategy likely to change in 2025 was the mix of financial instruments it would use to fund its bitcoin purchases,” Palmer wrote. “While MSTR is well ahead of its original schedule for executing its three[1]year plan to raise $42bn and buy an equivalent amount in bitcoin, it has issued ~80% of the $21bn of equity targeted under the plan. As such, management said the company intended to emphasize fixed income issuance during 2025.”
Strategy’s stock is little changed since Wednesday’s release, trading around $338 per share at publication time. Shares are up about 12% year to date and 560% over the past year. The aforementioned analysts see more room ahead.
Canaccord Genuity maintained a “buy” rating and lowered its price target to $409 from $510. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a price target of $560. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an “overweight” rating and raised his price target to $619. Benchmark reiterated its “buy” rating and price target of $650. Mizuho reiterated an “outperform” rating with a $515 price target.
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