What will the Bitcoin price be in 2025 and 2045?
2024-12-18
Category: None

Opinion by: Daniele Bernardi, Founder of DIAMAN
Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, recently made an interesting statement regarding Bitcoin. His company holds a significant amount of Bitcoin in its treasury, second only to BlackRock, the world’s most prominent asset manager, which has launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). 
According to Saylor, Bitcoin BTCUSD will grow at an average annual interest rate of 29% over the next 21 years, and by 2045, in his best-case scenario, Bitcoin will be worth $13 million. Here’s how Michael Saylor outlined his prediction:
That is a bold statement and deserves careful analysis to determine its validity.
Those who have followed me are familiar with the “Rate of Adoption” model. This model correlates Bitcoin’s price to the growth rate of “non-zero” wallets, which are wallets containing at least a fraction of Bitcoin.
I first presented this model in February 2020 at the Quant Workshop Conference, organized by Diaman Partners Ltd. The model predicted the 2021 peak at $63,000, slightly below the all-time high of $67,000 in October 2021.
In 2023, I updated the model and published the results in Cointelegraph.
The prediction for the current cycle was $130,000, a price Bitcoin will soon reach.
With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and 11 companies simultaneously promoting such an instrument, it’s clear that the parameters have changed. I had planned to recalculate the model in autumn 2024, and here we are.
With the recalibrated model, I am ready to estimate Bitcoin’s price in 2025 before it likely enters the next crypto winter in the autumn and winter of 2025.
I compared Saylor’s projection to our model before giving a short-term prediction. He predicts an average annual return over the next 21 years, while our model uses a more sophisticated power law. This approach relates the average price per wallet to the number of non-zero wallets in circulation. The multiplication of these variables provides the expected market capitalization of Bitcoin, from which it’s easy to derive the price.
Of course, all these projections are based on the assumption that Bitcoin will continue to exist and that its adoption rate will follow a power curve, as it has thus far.
As illustrated in the chart, our calculations indicate that by 2045, Bitcoin’s price could reach $8.3 million on the median curve. On the higher curve, driven by the semi-exponential surge marking the end of each bullish cycle, it could exceed $21.6 million.
It is key to remain aware of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, as the market is filled with individuals who settled for gains of +60% or +100%, only to exit too early and miss out on subsequent, extraordinary price increases.
I’m not suggesting holding Bitcoin indefinitely, as Saylor advocates. Still, it should undoubtedly be held for as many years as possible, or at least until it becomes clear that it will be replaced by something more attractive and functional (which, as of today, does not exist).
Now, let’s move on to the projected relative peak for 2025 based on the Rate of Adoption model, particularly considering the increased adoption driven by Bitcoin ETFs.
The 2025 forecast for Bitcoin’s peak price is $261,000, nearly double the previous estimate.
Of course, there are no guarantees that these values will materialize, nor should this be considered investment advice. I always recommend conducting thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions, ideally with a qualified financial adviser who can guide you on the appropriate allocation within your portfolio. It is crucial to understand the dynamics and potential of Bitcoin thoroughly. Otherwise, it may always seem too expensive to buy.
Looking at the chart above, you’ll notice that even with Bitcoin hitting all-time highs, we are still far from the upper boundary projected to mark the relative peak for 2025.
I’ll leave you with a particularly insightful phrase: Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve.
Daniele Bernardi is a serial entrepreneur and founder of Diaman, a group active in investment management, software development and crypto activities. He was recognized as an “Inventor” by the European Patent Office for his European and Russian Patent in the field of mobile payments.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.