Bernstein reiterates bitcoin could hit $80-90k if Trump wins presidency amid Polymarket odds divergence
2024-10-09

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated their prediction that bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in the $80,000 to $90,000 range if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election next month. The analysis comes amid the widest divergence of odds in favor of the former president since Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination.
Trump has repositioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate this year — accepting cryptocurrencies for campaign donations and outlining policies such as turning the U.S. into a bitcoin mining “powerhouse,” appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair and creating a national strategic bitcoin reserve.
In contrast, Harris did not address crypto in any of her speeches or policy statements until recently, offering broader comments last month that she'd encourage crypto business while protecting consumers, that the U.S. should become “dominant” in blockchain, and that digital assets are a part of her vision of an "opportunity economy."
While the Bernstein analysts believe bitcoin will do well in the long term regardless of the outcome amid low rates, continued U.S. fiscal deficits and unprecedented debt levels, the near-term reaction to the election could be material.
“A Trump win would be incrementally positive for bitcoin and crypto markets,” Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “In the scenario of a Trump win, we expect bitcoin to touch a new high ($80K to $90K) exceeding its previous high of $74K. In case of a Harris win, in the near term, we believe it could test a new low in the $40Ks range (previously untested in the recent correction).”
Meanwhile, the analysts anticipate bitcoin to continue reacting to the election odds, turning more positive if the perceived chances of a Trump victory increase. Conversely, if the race continues as “too close to call,” they expect it to become range-bound until the election on Nov. 5.
However, their view on altcoins is different, with Chhugani, Sapra and Chindalia expecting crypto assets like ETH and SOL to remain range-bound until the elections regardless. The analysts predicted other cryptocurrencies would only take a decisive direction after the elections when there is “more clarity on the SEC chair and the caste of regulatory aides within the White House since blockchain progress is more linked to the regulatory environment.”
Is Polymarket Trump biased?
Polymarket is the most liquid election prediction platform in the world, with more than $1.5 billion in bet volume riding on the U.S. presidential election alone, around $311 million on the popular vote winner, and $60 million in combined volume across seven swing states, the analysts noted.
As Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform and Trump has taken an overtly pro-crypto stance, some argue the decentralized global market has an intrinsic bias toward the Republican candidate. However, the Bernstein analysts argued that users were more likely to bet real money on probability than actually reflecting their bias — adding that the platform’s significant liquidity was robust enough for it to indicate any biases or attempts to manipulate the market.
“This was evident in Harris' odds being ahead of Trump all this while except the recent Trump divergence. Second, crypto investors being already long crypto are more likely to go long Harris as a hedge,” they said. “Thus, we would rather expect more Harris demand from crypto investors. Further, Polymarket would have bettors beyond crypto investors for the kind of volume being traded.”
Trump’s divergence on Polymarket
Harris has led Trump in two phases on Polymarket, the analyst noted. Firstly, when she was announced as the Democratic nominee, lasting for a couple of weeks until the market became “too close to call.” Secondly, following a positive debate performance for Harris on Sep. 10, taking her lead over Trump on Polymarket to 6% before again returning to 50/50.
However, following Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend — the same place where the former president narrowly survived an assassination attempt in July — Polymarket odds suddenly diverged on Monday, with Trump leading Harris by 8% at one point.
The divergence came after tech billionaire Elon Musk, who also attended the Butler rally in support of Trump, called Polymarket “more accurate than polls” as "actual money is on the line."
However, the latest national polling averages continue to call a “neck to neck” race with numbers within the margin of error showing a 3% advantage to Harris, the analysts said. “Nate Silver’s bayesian model, which takes recent polls as inputs to determine a trend, is now giving a 3% lead to Harris, but in his commentary continues to suggest a ‘close race’,” they added.
Chhugani, Sapra and Chindalia noted that Hillary Clinton had a 5% polling lead at the same stage going into the 2016 election and Joe Biden a 3% lead in 2020. However, the question regards whether Harris’ polling lead should be wider for a clear win, given the polls historically have underestimated Trump, they said.
Trump currently leads Harris by 7% on Polymarket, with 53.2% odds of winning the U.S. presidential election compared to 46.2%. Meanwhile, the Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina swing state markets on the platform each have Trump in a clear decisive lead of more than 20%, the analysts noted. Pennsylvania was closer until the Butler rally, with Trump now commanding a 9% lead, while Harris continues to lead in Wisconsin (4%) and Michigan (6%), albeit with a narrowing margin.
Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.
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