Solana Is 'Richly Valued' Versus Ether, but Could Still Outperform If Trump Gets Elected: Standard Chartered
2024-10-09

Solana {{SOL}} looks overvalued compared to Ethereum {{ETH}} based on several metrics, but each token's relative performance to each other and bitcoin {{BTC}} depends heavily on who will be the next president of the U.S., a Tuesday report by Standard Chartered Bank said.
Led by Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research, the bank's analysts expect more accommodating crypto regulations and higher chances of approval for spot-based solana ETFs if Donald Trump gets elected, while a Kamala Harris-led administration could weigh on smaller, riskier cryptocurrencies.
That being said, the team forecasts SOL to be the top performer of the three in a Trump administration, followed by ether and then bitcoin {{BTC}}. Under Harris expect the opposite, said StanChart, with bitcoin leading ETH and SOL bringing up the rear.
The bank's analysts, however, remain bullish on crypto no matter who wins the November election, seeing ETH rallying to $7,000 by the end of 2025 under Harris and $10,000 under Trump. The bank previously had a year-end 2025 ETH price target of $14,000.
Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 during the same period, regardless of who gets elected, the report said.
Solana overvalued versus ETH
Ethereum has been the dominant layer-1 network for blockchain applications, but Solana's increasing blockchain activity and SOL's rapid price surge convinced many crypto observers that a change in leadership is due.
While crypto valuations aren't standardized as in traditional assets, Standard Chartered analysts noted several metrics that showed SOL being overvalued compared to ETH.
SOL's ratio of market capitalization versus network fee revenues is 250, more than double than ETH's 121. Solana's supply grows around 5.5% annually, while ETH's token inflation rate stands around 0.5% a year, they added. Higher inflation means that SOL's real staking yield is 1%, compared to ETH's 2.3%. Meanwhile, 38% of all established developers in the blockchain industry work on the Ethereum ecosystem, with Solana claiming a 9% share.
"SOL valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in a very bright growth future for Solana, with a 100-400x increase in throughput expected," said Kendrick. "Such valuations would be easier to justify under a Trump administration than a Harris one," he added.
In order to uphold its current valuation, Solana will need to claim dominance in multiple crypto sectors with high traffic such as finance, consumer and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and activate the Firedancer client that allows increased efficiency, the report said.