10x Research Predicts Ether May Struggle to Post Significant Gains in 2025
2025-01-01
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Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, stated that Ether may not be the best investment for the 2025 bull run, as it could underperform compared to Bitcoin in terms of returns.
Other analysts mentioned they are waiting for additional confirmation from price charts to assess the asset’s trajectory. “While the possibility of a new catalyst is not out of the question, we wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to produce significant rallies next year,” Thielen noted in a market report dated December 30.
“We recognize Ethereum’s volatility, but we still view it as a weak medium-term investment and expect ETH to lag behind BTC once again in 2025,” Thielen remarked. “Therefore, our position on Ethereum is unchanged: ‘avoid.’What did the head of Research say?
Thielen also highlighted that one of the key metrics to monitor in 2025 will be the trend in active validators. However, he pointed out that the growth rate of validators had recently turned negative, with a decline of about 1% in the last 30 days, which raises concerns about the growing risk of more validators leaving the network.
Thielen proposed that a rise in unstaking seems “logical,” contending that Ethereum lacks significant demand beyond its staking mechanism. However, others disagree with this perspective.
Tim Lowe, Attestant’s chief business officer, recently shared with Cointelegraph that Ether’s demand could easily increase with improved marketing and a more unified value proposition, which would naturally draw in more investors. Lowe sees Ethereum’s potential for growth as being fueled by diversification from Bitcoin.The notable surge
Since January 1, 2024, Bitcoin has surged 121.4%, while Ether has posted a return of 46.3%, according to CoinMarketCap data.
On January 11, 2024, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in the United States and experienced high demand, driving Bitcoin’s price to new highs within two months. In contrast, when U.S. Ether ETFs launched in July, demand was significantly lower, leading to a more bearish outlook for the asset.
Bitcoin ETFs saw $35.3 billion in inflows throughout the year, whereas Ether ETFs totaled $2.66 billion.
Thielen commented that the Duncan upgrade in March, which lowered network gas fees and improved transaction handling, “arrived six months too late.” It missed the peak of the memecoin rally, with the market shifting to the “more cost-effective” Solana alternative.
He is also doubtful about the upcoming Pectra upgrade, expected in early 2025. “Out of the 19 upgrades so far, only two have had a significant positive impact on price, and those happened during Bitcoin bull markets,” Thielen noted.
“The three major Ethereum catalysts of 2024 have largely been underwhelming, contributing little overall,” he added.