Will Bitcoin Repeat History? Analyst Sees This 2019 Pattern In Current Market
2024-09-04

Following its renewed peak above $73,000 back in March, Bitcoin has been experiencing a prolonged period of price stagnation ever since, leaving many investors wondering about the potential for future movements.
According to a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym ‘Avocado,’ this stagnation may bear a resemblance to a similar pattern observed in 2019.
Why Is Bitcoin Price Still Below $60,000?
In the report uploaded on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the analyst suggests that the lack of volatility in Bitcoin’s price is largely due to the increased prevalence of over-the-counter (OTC) trading compared to exchange-based trading, which has reduced the frequency and intensity of price fluctuations.
This conclusion was made after the analyst assessed one of Bitcoin’s key metrics—lifespan of UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs)—which is used to analyze investor behavior.
By examining UTXOs held for less than six months, the analyst classifies these holders as new investors and compares their behavior to similar periods in previous market cycles.
The data reveals a small peak in UTXOs under six months, which closely mirrors a structure seen in 2019. These new investors likely entered the market around March of this year when Bitcoin’s price peaked, according to the analyst.
However, as the price has remained stagnant, many of these investors may have exited the market due to losses, while others have transitioned into the six-month-and-above holding category, the analyst added.
The 2019 Pattern And What It Signals For Current Market
The analyst, Avocado, further explained that this similar pattern, which was also observed in 2019, occurred around the time of the halving event, which eventually led to a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin.
However, it took approximately 490 days for Bitcoin to reach this ATH, a timeline that was also influenced by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. With Bitcoin’s price stuck in a large range for more than six months, the current situation raises questions about the potential for a similar outcome.
The analyst remains confident in the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin but advises caution in the short term. Avocado noted:
Currently, Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a large range for more than six months, with no clear trigger for a breakout. While I have no doubt about the long-term upward trend, in the short term, I believe it’s wise to temper expectations and closely monitor the market. Historically, the influx of capital from new investors has been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView