2025 XRP ETF approval odds hit 81% on Polymarket
2025-02-15
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XRP (XRP) has surged by more than 10% over the past two days due to positive developments involving the initial approval of exchange-traded funds (ETF) and real-world assets (RWA) introduction on the XRP ledger.
The altcoin rallied past its resistance at $2.50, exhibiting a sweep of overhead liquidity, which fueled its rally to a high of $2.78 on Feb. 14. 
Grayscale’s XRP and DOGE ETF receive initial nod
According to a filing released on Feb. 13, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Grayscale’s form 19b-4 application to list XRP and Dogecoin ETFs. 
The final decisions regarding both ETF's approval are expected to take place within 240 days, which is the mandated time period to accept or decline ETF applications under Section 19 (b) (2) of the Securities Exchange Act. 
With the SEC currently governing under a pro-crypto administration, the final approval could arrive early, which was observed last month with Bitwise’s dual Bitcoin-Ethereum ETF. The asset management organization submitted its application for a joint ETF in November 2024, receiving initial approval by Jan. 30, less than 90 days from filing. 
However, James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, believed that an XRP ETF would not be approved until the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple Labs has been completely settled. 
Related: Why is XRP price up today?
Polymarket betters confident of XRP ETF approval in 2025
After the positive news, the betting odds for an XRP ETF approval in 2025 increased to 81% on Polymarket. Over the past month, the probability of approval has swung 23% in favor of the bullish masses, which was around 70% in January 2025. 
The polls were split near even when the approval time was limited to July 31, where 45% of the betters believed a favorable outcome before Q3 2025. 
However, Jeremy Hogan, partner at Hogan and Hogan, believed that the XRP ETF might take a while before it is tradable in the market. 
Hogan, who was largely vocal on X (previously Twitter) during the SEC-Ripple Labs lawsuit, has been a pro-XRP commentator and advocate. Yet, when pressed on a possible timeline for complete approval, the lawyer said, 
Form S-1 is a key component for non-traditional ETFs such as crypto-based ones, and these filings require clear disclosures with respect to the ETF’s investment strategy, risks, fees, and operations. 
Related: Ether is at ‘peak bearishness’ and faces tipping point: Tyr Capital co-founder
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.