Brokerages continue to expect 25-bps US rate cut in December after CPI data
2024-12-11
Category: economic

    Wall Street brokerages, including Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, after key consumer price index (CPI) data for November rose the most in seven months.
    The     consumer price index     rose 0.3% last month, the largest gain since April after advancing 0.2% for four straight months, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said.  
    In the 12 months through November, the CPI climbed 2.7% after increasing 2.6% in October. The rise in the CPI was in line with economists' expectations.    
The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is due on Dec. 17-18.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the CPI data:
            Rate cut estimates (in bps)          
            Brokerages          
            December 2024          
            J.P. Morgan          
            25          
            Wells Fargo          
            25          
            Macquarie          
            25          
            Morgan Stanley          
            25          
            Citigroup          
            25          
            RBC          
            25          
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the CPI data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages
Dec 2024
2025
Fed Funds Rate 
BofA Global Research
25
50
3.75%-4.00% (end of June)
Barclays
25
50
3.75%-4.00% (end of 2025)
Macquarie
25
25
4.00%-4.25% 
Goldman Sachs
25
100 (through September 2025)
3.25%-3.50% (through September 2025)
J.P.Morgan
25
75(through September 2025)
3.75% (through September 2025)
*UBS Global Research
25
125
3.00%-3.25% (through end of 2025)
TD Securities
25
100
3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley
25
100 (through June 2025)
3.375% (Q4 2025)
Jefferies
25
100
3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025)
Nomura
-
50
4.125% (through end of 2025)
*UBS Global Wealth Management
25
100
3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank
25
No Rate Cuts
4.375%
Citigroup
25
-
3.00%-3.25% (H1 2025)
Societe Generale
25
-
-
HSBC
25
100
3.25%-3.50%
            Wells Fargo Investment Institute          
            25          
            25          
            4.00%-4.25%          
  * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group 