US spot Bitcoin ETFs surpass Satoshi’s estimated 1.1 million BTC holdings
2024-12-07

The combined 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have surpassed the 1.1 million BTC estimated to be held by the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto for the first time.
BlackRock’s IBIT product leads the spot Bitcoin ETFs’ onchain holdings with 408,870 BTC, according to The Block’s data dashboard. Fidelity’s FBTC is second with 241,850 BTC, and Grayscale’s converted GBTC fund is third with 213,200 BTC.
They reached the milestone following a positive flow streak that has seen the funds net over $30 billion in total inflows since trading began in January.
Alongside bitcoin’s 125% price surge to the $100,000 level this year, the ETFs now have more than $100 billion in assets under management.
While Satoshi, as an individual or a group, is likely the largest bitcoin holder, other known entities also have substantial holdings.
MicroStrategy’s 331,200 BTC (worth over $30 billion) makes it the largest corporate holder, having adopted bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset since 2020, with plans to raise $42 billion in capital over the next few years for further bitcoin acquisitions. The United States' 208,109 BTC ($20 billion) in seized funds places it as the largest nation-state holder, ahead of China and the United Kingdom, according to Bitcoin Treasuries.
Satoshi’s billions
Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated holdings of approximately 1.1 million BTC are based on a detailed analysis of early bitcoin mining patterns conducted by researchers such as Sergio Demian Lerner, who identified a specific "Patoshi Pattern" in the blockchain.
Lerner observed a distinct mining pattern in the early Bitcoin blocks, believed to belong to Satoshi, which consistently avoided mining consecutive blocks to maintain network decentralization.
Satoshi is thought to have mined around 22,000 of the first blocks, which, when multiplied by the 50 BTC block subsidy reward at the time, yields the 1.1 million BTC figure. These coins have remained unspent since their creation, further supporting the belief that they belong to the pseudonymous creator.
However, some researchers argue the figure could be overstated due to overlapping mining patterns or unverified assumptions about Satoshi's activity during Bitcoin's early days, suggesting the figure could be more like 600,000 BTC to 700,000 BTC. Others have estimated Satoshi's bitcoin holdings to be as high as 1.5 million BTC.
At current market prices, Satoshi's estimated 1.1 million BTC holdings would be worth more than $100 billion, making them theoretically one of the world’s richest people, behind the likes of Elon Musk, Larry Ellison and Jeff Bezos. However, with the coins never spent despite millions of percentage gains since bitcoin's inception, whether or not Satoshi is still alive and whether or not the private keys are lost, many expect the fortune never to be realized.
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