Bitwise Exec: Less Than a 10% Chance of Trump Establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025
2024-12-26
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Jeff Park, the Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, stirred debate earlier today (December 26, 2024) with his comment on X about the likelihood of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025. He said that the probability of such a reserve being established is less than 10% and tied this to the idea that Bitcoin could only reach $1 million or more in 2025 under such circumstances.
Park’s statement quickly drew a range of responses from the Bitcoin community, reflecting diverse opinions on the feasibility and implications of such a move. Let’s delve into his statement and the most common reactions to it.
The idea of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve aligns with growing narratives about governments embracing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, similar to gold reserves. However, Park’s skepticism highlights practical hurdles, such as Congressional approval, political priorities, and the significant capital required to make such a reserve impactful.
One perspective emphasized that proposed legislation for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve could mandate the acquisition of 200,000 Bitcoin in 2025. This would amount to $20 billion in capital at current prices. The argument suggested that such an inflow, while substantial, could prompt additional activity, with public companies and nations adopting Bitcoin as part of their own strategies. This momentum might make Park’s valuation logic plausible, even if it currently seems ambitious.
Others questioned the necessity of Congressional approval for such a reserve, proposing that executive authority could be used instead. For instance, they speculated that Trump might direct the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to acquire Bitcoin. Historically used for foreign currency interventions, the ESF could, in theory, be repurposed for Bitcoin, creating a pathway to a strategic reserve without direct legislative backing.
Optimists pointed to Trump’s vocal support for Bitcoin, as evidenced during the Bitcoin 2024 conference. They argued that his administration’s pro-Bitcoin rhetoric, coupled with the presence of crypto-friendly individuals in his circle, increases the likelihood of bold moves like a Strategic Reserve. This group placed the probability closer to 70%, suggesting Park’s estimate was overly conservative.
However, some agreed with Park, cautioning against speculation that assumes a Strategic Reserve is inevitable. They argued that overconfidence in this narrative could lead to significant disappointment if such plans fail to materialize. This camp emphasized that while a Strategic Reserve is an exciting concept, it remains highly speculative.
To fully understand the debate, it’s essential to revisit the key points Trump made during his speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27. Trump celebrated Bitcoin as an extraordinary technological innovation and a testament to human cooperation. He predicted that Bitcoin would surpass gold in market capitalization and envisioned the United States as the global leader in Bitcoin mining. To achieve this, he proposed that all Bitcoin mining should occur domestically, establishing the U.S. as a Bitcoin superpower.
Trump emphasized that Bitcoin was an unparalleled innovation, describing it as both a technological marvel and a testament to human cooperation and achievement. He predicted that Bitcoin would surpass gold in market capitalization, underscoring its potential as a global financial asset. Additionally, he expressed a vision for making the United States the leader in Bitcoin mining, proposing that all Bitcoin mining should occur domestically to solidify the U.S. as a Bitcoin superpower.
Trump also strongly defended the right to self-custody cryptoassets and pledged to implement regulatory reforms aimed at fostering the growth of the crypto industry. He promised to fire the sitting SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office and replace him with a pro-crypto regulator. Furthermore, he committed to establishing a regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins to enhance the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Arguing that Bitcoin itself does not pose a threat to the dollar, Trump placed the blame on government policies for any perceived risks to the dollar’s stability. He highlighted that the U.S. government holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, promising to retain and expand these reserves. Trump’s bold declarations have fueled speculation about transformative cryptocurrency policies in his potential second term.
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