Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Still On? STH Cost Basis Suggests So
2025-01-11
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The Bitcoin price has been somewhat quiet since hitting its all-time high of $108,135, struggling to hold a six-figure valuation for long. Case in point — the premier cryptocurrency barely lasted a day above $100,000 before crashing to under $92,000 in the past week.
This sluggish price action has triggered discussions about the likelihood of a top being in and the Bitcoin bull market being over. However, the latest on-chain observation suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency might still have room for further upward price movement.
What’s The Current Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Cost Basis?
In its latest post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin bull market might not be over just yet. This on-chain observation is based on the movement of the BTC price in relation to the short-term holders (STH) cost basis.
The STH cost-basis metric tracks the average price at which short-term holders (investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days) purchased their coins. It represents a psychological level for BTC investors and could serve as a technical point for analyzing prices, especially during bull cycles.
Typically, the price of Bitcoin floats above the STH cost basis during bull markets, indicating significant buying interest and positive sentiment from short-term traders. Conversely, when the BTC price falls beneath this level — as often seen in bear markets, this means that newer investors are in the red, leading to substantial selling pressure.
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s price is roughly 7% above the STH cost basis, which currently stands at around $88,135. While the premier cryptocurrency is a little closer to the cost basis, the inkling is still that short-term holders are less likely to offload their assets.
If the price of Bitcoin manages to sustain above the STH cost basis, it means the potential continuation of the current bull market. On the flip side, a move beneath $88,000 could set the stage for a trend reversal, with the market shifting from a bull to a bear phase.
As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $94,000, reflecting barely a 1% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by more than 3% in the last seven days.
Is A Market Rebound Imminent?
The crypto market has been in terrible form over the past week, with several large-cap assets dipping by double digits. Unsurprisingly, many crypto traders have indicated interest in offloading their assets on various social media platforms.
However, this shift in investor sentiment increases the odds of a market recovery, as prices tend to move in the crowd’s opposite direction. On-chain intelligence firm Santiment noted in a post on X that this was the case in the rally witnessed in 2024 Q4, as higher prices followed increased bearish mentions.