Trump Election Win Doubts Grow, But Analysts Forecast a $200K Bitcoin Regardless
2024-11-06

Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, investment company Bernstein is firm in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, earning a $200,000 valuation.
U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed substantial outflows ahead of a highly anticipated presidential election, marking their second-largest outflow day on record.
On November 4, just one day before U.S. voters head to the polls, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net withdrawals totaling $541.1 million. This movement could indicate that institutional investors are wary of a Trump victory, which is widely expected to be bullish for Bitcoin’s price action.
💥BREAKING: Yesterday the Spot ETF saw $541.07 MILLION OUTFLOW! 🚨THIS IS THE 2ND BIGGEST OUTFLOW EVER.Blackrock is still buying. — Blacksea (@333blacksea) 
The largest outflow day is still May 1, when the ETFs saw $563.7 million withdrawn following a 10.7% drop in Bitcoin’s price over a week.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer noted that Wall Street’s Monday trading session reflects investors who feel Vice President Kamala Harris could win the presidency.
Industries that stand to benefit from a Harris win and her proposed policies witnessed a spike. Something Cramer credited to a surprising new poll released this weekend that showed Harris ahead 47% to 44%in Iowa, a traditionally red state that appeared to be a lock for Trump.Bernstein Forecasts $200K Bitcoin With or Without Trump
Although the ongoing narrative is that Bitcoins fate hangs on the U.S. Election, that Bitcoin price targets remain locked in with or without Trump.
Bernstein analysts said earlier this month that Bitcoin hitting $200,000 before 2026 was a “conservative” estimate.
However, the report acknowledged a short-term impact on market sentiment given that Donald Trump is seen as the pro-crypto candidate, compared to Kamala Harris’s relatively hawkish crypto stance and vague endorsement.
Bernstein’s short-term projection places a Bitcoin price target at $80,000 to $90,000 in the next few weeks if Trump wins. However, a Harris victory is expected to see Bitcoin fall back to $50,000.Macroeconomics to be the Driving Narrative Post-Election
Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, shared similar sentiments in a recent conversation with . He reasoned that while Trump’s Polymarket run has undeniably led to tailwinds for Bitcoin, it has not been the foremost narrative driving prices.
“There’s a lot more going on. Over the last couple of months, we’ve seen a significant increase in liquidity and quantitative easing picking back up,” Hadick explained.
Instead, he credits the long-term outlook for Bitcoin to broader macroeconomic factors. 
While Hadick acknowledges that, in the short term, there’s an expectation of more volatility with a potential Harris presidency, from a macroeconomic perspective, “everything is signaling the likelihood of increased exposure to risk assets for large investors.”
Hadick expressed optimism that the narrative of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is still achievable, with a “real expectation that we are kind of past the concern of a recession.”