Bitcoin options traders say $80K is a given as Trump victory odds spike
2024-10-23

Crypto market participants are increasingly buying more Bitcoin BTCUSD whenever sentiment leans toward Donald Trump’s stronger odds of winning the United States presidential election, according to crypto analysts.
“There has been increasing speculation that there is correlation between Bitcoinʼs price action and Donald Trumpʼs election odds,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in an Oct. 21 market report viewed by Cointelegraph.
However, FalconX head of research David Lawant told Bloomberg on Oct. 22 that Bitcoin “is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome.”
The report cited data from crypto exchange Deribit, showing that Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) — the value or number of outstanding futures contracts that have yet to expire — for call contracts expiring at the end of November is “concentrated around $80,000.”
Bitcoin rally to $69K possibly driven by Trump victory odds
The comments come after Cointelegraph recently reported that prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have turned in favor of Trump, with his victory probability increasing to around 60%.
“Risk assets have geared up to price in the uncertainty (or certainty) tied to the US elections, as well as the respective beta assets tied to each individual candidateʼs winning odds,” the analysts declared.
They further pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent spike above $69,000 on Oct. 21 may also be “driven by speculation about Trump’s potential victory.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $68,152 and crypto analyst Axel Adler said that almost all of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit.
Meanwhile, the market is not only focused on Trump’s general bullish sentiment around the asset but are also keenly watching for his interest in law reforms and regulatory changes that could impact the crypto market.
It was noted that while Bitcoin has “maintained” a consistent correlation with the “likelihood of a Republican win,” other markets, such as equities, have shown “uncertain flows amid a closely contested race between Republican and Democrat candidates.”
The analysts’ observations come just days after Trump launched his World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token on Oct. 16. However, it failed to live up to expectations.
After the first day of trading, the coin only amassed about $12.7 million of sales, leaving $287 million of tokens unsold.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.