Long Bias Analysis for SOL/USDT (4H Chart):
2024-12-20
Category: None


Market Context:

    Market Structure:
        A clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside occurred, sweeping sell-side liquidity below $190.
        The price is now trading in a Fair Value Gap (FVG), a common area where demand often re-enters the market.

    Key Levels:
        Support Zone: $185.79–$189.31, the FVG and demand zone, where buyers may step in.
        Resistance Levels:
            $209.09: First resistance and minor supply zone.
            $212.73: A significant supply level and previous breakdown point.
            $263.80: Ultimate bullish target if momentum sustains.

    Indicators:
        The price is below the EMA cluster, suggesting oversold conditions.
        The imbalance (FVG) provides a confluence area for long entries with reduced downside risk.

Trade Plan:
Entry:

    Look for entries around $189–$193, ideally after bullish confirmation (e.g., strong bullish candles or wicks rejecting the FVG).

Stop Loss:

    Place the stop loss slightly below $185.79 to account for potential liquidity grabs while minimizing risk.

Take Profits:

    TP1: $209.09 – Close to the EMA and minor resistance.
    TP2: $212.73 – Significant supply zone and previous structural high.
    TP3 (Stretch Target): $263.80 – The upper range and major supply level.

Risk-Reward Analysis:

    Entry near $190, SL at $185, and TP2 at $212 provides a 4:1 Risk-to-Reward Ratio.
    Reaching TP3 would significantly increase the reward potential.

Key Notes:

    Confirmation:
        Watch for reversal candlestick patterns or increased volume near the FVG.
        A break and hold above $197 (current resistance) will signal a stronger bullish case.

    Partial Profits:
        Take partial profits at TP1 to secure gains, then trail the stop loss to breakeven for remaining positions.

    Invalidation:
        A clean break below $185 invalidates this setup and could lead to further downside.

