BTC before final moments: ready to jump? (1H)
2024-11-05

Hello, fellow traders!

I want to share my thoughts on BTC. Looking at the 1H chart, we see the price has recently touched the weekly resistance line. It is now hovering just above the line instead of breaking out, which is ideal. 


I've adjusted the time of the US election and Federal reserve interest rate announcement based on where I live. 
The US election is scheduled on the 5th and the initial result will most likely be available before the day ends. Even if it doesn't, general projection would be informative enough to stimulate the market to move accordingly. Western states including California will be the last to close the polls and start processing the votes, but it's likely that the outcome become clear enough before they even finish the process. So my guess is the market would already start moving by 10-11PM (ETZ) since market tends to move ahead based on assumptions. This is around 6PM of 6th in where I live. 
If the vote process takes longer (because of the close race or whatever other reasons) than usual, it might take additional 2-3 days which would cause a lot of volatilities that would eventually abate as the result becomes more comprehensible. 
I also want to address the US federal reserve interest rate announcement which is scheduled this Thursday - just after the election. This will again impact the crypto market heavily - many are expecting the rate cut for economical growth and if this is true, chances of BTC bull run will definitely increase.

Many are predicting BTC to reach ATH, even up to 90k, 100k, 1m, and some are saying that the bull run will begin no matter who becomes the next potus. 


Back to the chart, we see price slightly rebounding as it touches the weekly resistance line. 
However, the breakout of the downtrend (marked as a red line) is yet to happen. If the outcome of this election and the interest rate announcement come out favorable to the market, I can only imagine a breakout, then a bull run starting with big momentum. 

I've read a lot of posts, comments and news about BTC, I see some saying the halving will begin after the election, others saying BTC will double - interestingly both side had evidence to back them up. Maybe both are true!
I don't think we can comfortably rely on the past data. People have different strategies, different experiences, resulting in different conclusion.
What I understand though is nature of market movements - it moves according to the psychology. And the outcome of the upcoming election and change of interest rate will definitely either encourage people to invest more or withdraw their investments.  

Conclusion:
My strategy for BTC is if the breakout (of the red line) occurs and both election and interest rate come out favorable for the market, I will enter LONG. 
All the hypes around BTC, current election predictions, news about rate cut really give us the excitement but I don't want to assume anything yet. 
I'm just hoping the timing of the breakout aligns with these two events to maximize momentum. 

Frankly, I'm looking forward to seeing the results but I'm also not going to try to predict them because I've been wrong many times and have learned from those experiences not to make predictions. Instead, I will react. 
If the market moves opposite direction, we'll just simply enter opposite position and take profit. It's that simple. 


