Bitcoin Analysis: December 23, 2024 - Consolidation or Rebound?
2024-12-22
Category: None

Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.

Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis for today.

Weekly Chart Analysis



Looking at the Bitcoin weekly chart, we can identify two main yellow box zones that represent Bitcoin’s historical trading frames. Currently, in the blue box zone, Bitcoin has moved into a new frame.
Examining the weekly candles, we see that the current red candle is engulfing the previous week’s green candle. As the weekly close approaches in just a few hours, it is highly likely that this bearish engulfing candle signals a consolidation phase within the frame.
If we look at the green box, a similar scenario occurred in the past: after a new high was reached within the previous frame, a bearish candle emerged, followed by approximately 9 months of sideways movement.
While it is unclear how long the current frame will last, the appearance of this week's red candle is not a particularly optimistic signal for future bullish momentum.
The red box, which has provided support since November 2024, becomes critical. A breakdown below this zone could signify a breach of approximately five weeks of sustained support, increasing the likelihood of retesting the weekly 20-MA or even breaking below it.
However, since the red box zone has not yet been decisively breached, it is still possible for Bitcoin to move sideways within the current frame. For those holding long positions, there is no immediate cause for alarm unless the price breaks below 89,400 or fails to hold the support of the weekly 20-MA. If either of these scenarios occurs, it may signal a trend reversal. Keep this in mind as you approach your trades.

Daily Chart Analysis



The key level to watch on the daily chart is 89,400, which coincides with the entry zone for the Ichimoku Cloud.
Since November, Bitcoin has not encountered significant resistance around the daily 20-MA. However, the recent resistance at this level suggests a weakening of bullish momentum.
At this point, it’s crucial to determine whether Bitcoin will:
Receive support and rebound above the key levels, or
Retrace further to 73,800, which was the previous frame’s entry level, and test the short-term ascending trendline.

4-Hour Chart Analysis


To confirm a rebound, Bitcoin must first establish a solid foothold above the 4-hour 20-MA.
Although there was a brief attempt to break above the 20-MA on December 20, 2024, Bitcoin failed to sustain its position, leading to further corrections. This indicates that surpassing the 20-MA remains a priority before addressing resistance levels.
The second critical level to monitor is 99,485, which currently serves as a resistance zone. A breakout above this level would indicate diminishing selling pressure. This would also confirm the current frame's significance as Bitcoin potentially targets the next key resistance near 109,000.

Conclusion

Is the market overheating, or is a rebound on the horizon?
Despite years of observing charts, the emergence of new wealth in this market suggests we are experiencing unique dynamics.
Opportunities always arise during cycles, but entering the market during periods of rapid growth often results in losses rather than gains.
Sometimes, waiting can be the best strategy.

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