 Is This the Bullish Bounce or a Bearish Trap?
2025-01-11
Category: None

The H4 chart for BTC/USDT continues to reflect a trading range dynamic, with the price holding near 94,350 after a bounce from the critical support at 93,000 (last week’s low and key range floor).

New Low (92,950) was formed on January 9, triggering an overshoot below the support.
The subsequent recovery has led to a Higher Low (93,500) and a weak attempt to create a Higher High (94,700). However, the price failed to break above the EMA convincingly, keeping the bearish pressure intact.
This scenario still aligns with a range-bound market, but the strength of the next few candles will determine whether the bulls can shift the narrative.

 For the Bulls Arguments: 
The bounce from New Low near 93,000 suggests buyers are defending the range.
The Higher Low at 93,500 indicates a potential accumulation phase.
A confirmed Higher High above 94,700 would likely drive the price toward the next resistance at 96,000.
Probability: 60% chance for continued range movement or a retest of 96,000.

 For The Bears Arguments: 
Price is struggling to stay above the EMA, which remains sloped downward—often a sign of bearish momentum.
Without a clear breakout, the bounce risks becoming a Bear Flag or a weak pullback.
A failure to hold above the Higher Low at 93,500 could open the door for a new leg down, retesting the New Low (92,950) or even 90,000.
Probability: 40% chance for a breakdown below 93,500.

 Higher Highs vs. New Lows:  When bulls create Higher Lows and Higher Highs, it signals strength. However, without confirmation, this could be a trap. Always wait for follow-through.
 Bear Flags:  These form after sharp declines when price consolidates upwards, only to resume the downtrend. Watch how the price behaves around the EMA—failure to break above it increases the likelihood of continuation.
 EMA as a Pivot:  In trending markets, the EMA acts as dynamic support/resistance. Breakouts above it often signal trend reversals.


What’s your take—are we gearing up for a breakout or another fake-out? Drop your comments below and share your setups! Don’t forget to hit the like button if you find this analysis helpful! 🚀