Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Key Levels and Strategy for Traders
2025-02-04
Category: None

Most Relevant Timeframe to Take a Position 
	•	 Short Term (2H, 4H) : Highly volatile due to political announcements. Signals ( MTFTI = red, HPI >80 on 2H ) suggest caution. Scalping or short-term swing trading is possible, but with tight stop losses.
	•	 Intermediate (12H) : A good compromise. The trend still shows a bullish bias ( Short MA > Long MA, Investor Satisfaction ~0.68 ), but the market remains nervous. A “bullish pullback” signal could emerge if the price clearly reclaims  ~100k–101k .
	•	 Long Term (1D) : The underlying trend is not broken. For unleveraged investments, current levels ( 95–98k ) may be attractive, provided a mental stop is monitored around  90–92k .

In practice, the  12H  often provides a good balance for assessing whether a correction is ending. If  2H–4H  bars seem too “noisy” and waiting for a  1D  close is too long,  12H  is a solid reference.

  Key Support and Resistance Levels 

 Support Levels 
	•	 ~95,000 $ 
	•	 Auto AVWAP Low Convergence (2H and 4H at ~95–94.8k) 
	•	Below this level, a lower support can be found at  12H AVWAP Low (~99.1k) , but it would already be broken if price drops further.
	•	 Pivot ~90,000 $ 
	•	Major psychological and technical level. A clear break would open the way for a deeper corrective structure toward  88k–85k .

 Resistance Levels 
	•	 ~100–101k 
	•	Zone around  High AVWAP 2H, 4H (100k), Long MA 2H (101k), etc. 
	•	Closing above  101k  on the  4H–12H  timeframe would be a strong bullish signal.
	•	 ~104–105k 
	•	 Daily AVWAP High (105,465) and 12H (104,564) 
	•	A probable major resistance. If broken, the daily trend could accelerate, with the next target at  108–110k .

  Recommendations / Conclusion 
	1.	 Short-Term Caution (2H, 4H): 
	•	Sentiment indicators on these lower timeframes ( ISPD ~0.46, HPI = 83 on 2H ) suggest possible intraday overbuying.
	•	Macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions trigger sudden volatility spikes.
	2.	 Main Scenario: 
	•	As long as  BTC does not break decisively below 90–92k , the daily structure remains predominantly bullish. A clearer rebound could occur once  100–101k  is reclaimed.
	•	If  90k  breaks, a deeper correction would likely follow, forming a broader corrective structure.
	3.	 Altcoins: 
	•	Some have recently dropped  -30% , and several weekly structures are still incomplete.
	•	Long-term investors may consider gradual accumulation on dips.
	•	For swing trading, it’s best to wait for volatility to settle and a clearer setup to appear.
	4.	 Timeframe to Watch: 
	•	The  12H  timeframe seems “ideal” for confirming the end of the correction.
	•	The  1D  timeframe remains relevant for a broader view.
	•	Also, keep an eye on macroeconomic announcements (tariff policies, geopolitical tensions), as these often trigger immediate volatile movements.
	5.	 Fundamental Outlook: 
	•	Potential BTC adoption by some U.S. states ( Utah, Arizona ) could support a medium/long-term bullish rebound.
	•	Inflation concerns in Europe, Fed decisions, and U.S.–China tensions remain key volatility drivers.

 Conclusion: The Market is at a Crossroads 
	•	On lower timeframes (2H–4H), the trend is more bearish/corrective ( MTFTI red, low satisfaction ).
	•	On higher timeframes (1D), the bullish trend remains intact as long as the  90k pivot holds .

 Recommendations: 
	•	For short-term traders: Caution, tight stops, no FOMO until a solid consolidation above  100–101k on 4H  occurs.
	•	For medium/long-term investors: Gradual accumulation on  ~95k retests  or deeper dips toward  90k , while closely monitoring whether this major support holds.