Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) + trade plan
2024-09-26

Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) by Blaž Fabjan

Descending Trading Channel:

Bitcoin appears to be moving within a descending trading channel, with the price gradually testing the lower bounds and trying to break out from this downtrend.

The key resistance for a breakout from this descending channel is around the 64,000 USDT level, while the support is close to the 62,500 USDT level.
A breakout above the upper channel line would indicate a potential bullish reversal and continuation to the upside.

Resistance and Support Levels:

Resistance: The primary resistance zone is around 64,333 USDT (marked on the chart). A breakout above this level may result in the next target being around 66,966 USDT.
Support: The nearest support level is 62,566 USDT. A breakdown below this could push the price towards the lower support area around 59,544.5 USDT.

Momentum Indicators:

VMC Cipher B Divergences: This indicator is currently showing some positive momentum with green dots indicating potential bullish divergence, suggesting that the price may increase soon.

RSI (14, close): The RSI is hovering around 50, indicating neutral momentum. A break above 50 could indicate a bullish trend, while a drop below could signal a bearish continuation.

Stochastic Oscillator: The Stoch (14, 1, 3) shows an overbought condition at 82.78, which may suggest a short-term pullback or consolidation. However, if the upward trend continues, this can be ignored in favor of further bullish momentum.

HMA+ Histogram: The HMA+ (Hull Moving Average) is slightly bullish with a reading of 33.0, indicating that the short-term trend may be shifting toward the upside.

Volume:

The chart shows moderate volume. Higher volume accompanying a breakout above the resistance level will be crucial to confirm the move.

 Trading Plan: 

 Bullish Scenario: 
Entry: Consider entering a long position if Bitcoin breaks above 64,333 USDT with confirmed volume.
Target 1: The first target would be around 65,000 USDT.
Target 2: If momentum persists, the second target could be 66,966 USDT.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the support at 62,500 USDT to manage risk.

 Bearish Scenario: 
Entry: If Bitcoin breaks below 62,566 USDT, consider entering a short position.
Target 1: The first target would be around 61,000 USDT.
Target 2: A further decline could push the price toward 59,544.5 USDT.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the 64,333 USDT level to minimize potential losses.

Summary:
Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal point within a descending channel. If the price breaks above the key resistance at 64,333 USDT, there is potential for a bullish breakout targeting 66,966 USDT. However, if Bitcoin breaks down from the 62,566 USDT support, the bearish scenario could unfold, leading to a possible drop toward the 59,500 USDT zone. Monitoring volume and key indicators like RSI, Stochastic, and HMA+ will be important for confirming the direction.