Bitcoin Bulls or Bear Trap? Key Levels That Will Decide the Next
2025-01-29
Category: None

📊 Market Structure Overview
BTCUSDT is attempting a bullish recovery after a strong sell-off, printing higher lows (HLs) but failing to break key resistance. The moving average (MA) is acting as dynamic resistance, suggesting that bears are still in control.

The chart presents mixed signals, with price consolidating just below $103,000, forming a possible measured move setup and an inside-outside-inside bar sequence—indicating that the market is gearing up for a breakout.

🐂 Bull Case (40% Probability)
Higher Low Structure: The market is holding above $101,500, forming consecutive higher lows (HLs).
Inside-Outside-Inside Bars: If the price can break above $103,000, it may trigger a measured move toward $104,500 - $105,000.
Support Zone: Previous resistance-turned-support around $101,500 - $102,000 suggests potential demand.
Bear Trap Potential: If bears fail to push lower, we could see a short squeeze, triggering a fast rally.
🔹 Long Entry Plan: A strong close above $103,000, confirming a breakout, could justify a long entry with a stop below $101,800 and a target at $105,000.

🐻 Bear Case (60% Probability)
Failure to Make a New High: Bulls attempted to push above $103,000, but price rejected—a classic lower high (LH) setup.
Moving Average Acting as Resistance: The MA is sloping downward, indicating that the larger trend is still bearish.
Measured Move Target Lower: If BTC breaks below $101,500, we could see a measured move toward $99,500 - $100,000.
Exhaustion Gap & Weak Bounce: The previous breakdown was sharp, and the current bounce lacks strong momentum.
🔹 Short Entry Plan: A confirmed break below $101,500, targeting $99,500, with a stop at $103,000.

📌 Trader’s Equation & Summary
✅ Bearish bias is stronger, favoring shorts below $101,500
✅ Bulls need a strong close above $103,000 for a valid breakout
✅ Measured move setups indicate a potential $99,500 target if support breaks

🔻 Bearish Trade: Short below $101,500, stop at $103,000, target $99,500
🔼 Bullish Trade: Long above $103,000, stop at $101,800, target $105,000

🧠 Trading Psychology Notes
Detach from the Need to Be Right: Focus on probabilities, not being perfect.
Fear and Greed Are the Enemy: Stick to your trading plan, not emotions.
Trade the Chart, Not Your Bias: Let the market tell you what to do.