Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W43/2024) // AlgoFyre
2024-10-23

The market is expected to stay within a tight range leading up to the election, with the potential for both bullish and bearish outcomes. A bullish scenario may lead to a significant rise, while a bearish scenario could result in a correction. Both possibilities are on the table.

 🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 
  

🔸 Leading Diagonal (Green) Complete : It’s October 22nd, 2024. Based on the 8-hour chart, we are likely correcting or staying in a tighter range until the election. Assuming results are available on election night, that’s a key point to watch.

🔸 Corrective Phase (Red ABC) : The price may drop, correct back up, and then decline again. After that, it could go either way—bullish with a potential one-two sequence signaling a strong upward move, or bearish if it completes a three-wave ABC pattern, preparing for a drop.

🔸 Timing Around the US Election : Both bullish and bearish outcomes are valid. The price may push up to take out the high, especially if this is a wave four, forming either a WXY or a leading diagonal. If it’s a leading diagonal and the high remains intact, we could see a decline.

🔸 Bullish Impulse (Wave 3) : The wave structure suggests either a bullish move or further consolidation. RSI shows hidden bearish potential on shorter timeframes, but it’s unclear if this move has more room to the downside before continuing upward. The current five-wave formation is almost textbook in appearance.

🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR): 
 
 An initial wave up, followed by a drop, is likely. The move appears to be too clean to ignore. We may see further upside with volume peaking at the top of the current wave. A complex correction could follow, potentially stalling the move until after the election.
 Price action could remain range-bound, giving time for the election to pass before a more decisive trend emerges. In the next two weeks, we’ll see how this plays out. Up today, then potentially down later, remains the best guess for now.
 

 🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 
  

🔸 Bigger ABC Correction : It’s October 22nd, 2024. The chart shows a corrective phase, likely to remain range-bound until the election. If the election results trigger a move, we’ll see a clearer direction.

🔸 Flat Pattern for B-Wave : Expect a drop, correction, then another move down. A one-two sequence could signal a bullish breakout, but if it’s an ABC pattern, we may be preparing for a drop.

🔸 C-Wave to 52K Area : Both bullish and bearish outcomes are possible. The price may retest highs but could fall if it forms a leading diagonal. As long as the high remains untouched, a downside move is expected.

🔸 Larger C-Wave Up : The wave structure indicates a potential move down after the current five-wave sequence. RSI suggests bearish pressure on short timeframes, but the exact timing is uncertain.

🔸 Major Downtrend Next Year : The market may consolidate, form a complex correction, and then begin impulsing downward. The overall trend could remain bearish after the election.

🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): 
 
 A move up followed by a correction could take time to fully develop. The market may stay range-bound leading up to the election. The next two weeks will be critical in determining the longer-term direction.
 

 🔶 Key Takeaway 
 The market is expected to remain in a tight range until the election, with potential for both bullish and bearish outcomes. A significant rise is possible under a bullish scenario, while a bearish scenario could lead to a correction. Both scenarios are valid.