Key Levels in Focus Amid Crucial Economic Events This Week
2025-01-14
Category: None

1. Updated Market Structure Overview
The BTC/USD market continues its downtrend, marked by consecutive Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). However, this week’s heavy economic calendar introduces heightened volatility risks and opportunities for potential trend shifts.

Key levels and observations:
- High of Day at ~96,000 acts as a key resistance for bulls.
- Current price near ~91,600, with a New Low (NL), confirming bearish momentum.
- The market is testing psychological and technical support near 90,000

2. Impact of Economic Calendar on BTC/USD
This week includes high-impact data that could significantly influence Bitcoin's price:

- Tuesday, Jan 14:
  - US Core PPI & PPI: Inflation-related data could hint at the Federal Reserve's policy direction, impacting risk assets like BTC.  
 Possible Scenario: A lower-than-expected PPI may fuel a short-term BTC rally, while higher data could pressure it further.

- Wednesday, Jan 15:
  - US CPI (Core & YoY): Core inflation data is critical. If CPI shows acceleration, markets may price in a more hawkish Fed, potentially increasing bearish pressure on BTC.  
  Key Levels: BTC bears will aim to push below 90,000 if inflation surprises on the upside.

- Thursday, Jan 16:
  - US Retail Sales: Consumer spending strength may indirectly impact Bitcoin sentiment, with higher sales supporting risk-on sentiment.  

- Friday, Jan 17:  
  - China GDP: This will influence global risk sentiment. A higher GDP growth print could boost Bitcoin and other risk assets as markets interpret economic resilience.  


3. Revised Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bullish Case (40% Probability):
Catalyst: Lower-than-expected US inflation (PPI or CPI) and positive risk sentiment from strong Chinese GDP.  
Price Action:
  - Bulls must break above the EMA (~94,000) and reclaim the 96,000 resistance.  
  - A confirmed Higher Low (HL) near 92,000-93,000 could trigger a short-term bullish rally.  

Bearish Case (60% Probability):
Catalyst: Higher-than-expected US inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary.  
Price Action:
  - A break below the 91,600 New Low will likely target 90,000, a psychological level.  
  - Failure to hold 90,000 opens the door to the next support near 88,000.



4. Actionable Trading Plan

- For Bulls:
  - Enter on confirmed Higher Low above 92,000.  
  - Target 94,000 (EMA) and 96,000 for partial profits.  
  - Stop-loss below 91,600.

- For Bears:
  - Sell on failed tests of 94,000 or a breakdown below 91,600.  
  - Targets: 90,000, then 88,000  
  - Stop-loss above the nearest Lower High at ~94,000.


Will macroeconomic data this week confirm Bitcoin’s bearish trend, or are bulls ready for a surprise rally?
