XRP and what is actually happening 
2024-12-27
Category: None

Despite the widespread optimism and enthusiastic support for XRP on social media, the broader picture reveals a more nuanced and potentially precarious situation. Social media platforms often amplify sentiments that may not align with underlying market conditions, creating an echo chamber of bullish sentiment. This optimism can be misleading, especially when it fails to account for actual market dynamics like volume trends, liquidity constraints, or institutional participation. 

A key factor complicating XRP's trajectory is the persistent selling pressure that offsets or even eclipses buying pressure. While social media narratives might suggest strong demand, on-chain data and order book analysis often reveal heavy selling activity. This dynamic suggests that market participants, including whales or early investors, could be offloading their holdings during price rallies, limiting upward momentum. Such consistent selling pressure acts as a ceiling for price appreciation and undermines the ability of XRP to achieve sustained breakouts. This indicates that the bullish consensus may be fragile, relying more on sentiment than market mechanics.

The potential for a short squeeze could further complicates the situation. However, selling pressure zeroing out buying pressure could indicate that short sellers have taken aggressive positions against XRP, expecting further price declines. However, this also creates a precarious balance. If buying pressure suddenly spikes due to a catalyst. While this might seem bullish, short squeezes are often temporary and highly volatile, leaving prices vulnerable to retracement once the squeeze subsides. It’s a double-edged sword that could momentarily align with the social media hype but fails to establish long-term stability.

Example in the H4 time frame based on XRP:USDT.P



Short explanation:
1) The main pane shows the price action.  We can clearly see in the 4 hours time frame a majority of supply rather than a strong demand action (based on LL HL and retracement) 
2) the choppiness level of the market seems to be quite persistent, indicating a clear consolidation path likely mid term  lasting
3) the red line indicates the balance between premium and discount , and as we can see at present , the price is tapping constantly the discount area of support provided by the lower band of supply. 


Some consideration about the BULL flag which I should call it BS flag most of the time when is so wide spread. Here the 4H chart for the current wide spread believe that XRP is creating a bull flag: 



We can see clearly the choppiness of the market is even better visible adding the so called bullish triangle to the actual current price trend which will see some action between the new year eave   and the 9th of January 2025:



In short, if you are an XRP holder  spot just keep it , if you are trying to get the so called breakout be aware that market makers know how many retail traders are trying to jump into this high level of choppiness because over leverage is actually visible. Actually as an indicator when you have a good way to identify choppiness in the market , means that we should expect some sort of action soon the choppiness reached its peak. For this I wrote an indicator that you can see in my charts. 


Price entries for buy :
Around 2.150 if does not break the demand zone below (always at least 3 candles confirmation in 3 different time frames) 
If the demand zone is breached around that zone next one should be around 1.9500 and 1.90 . In between there are also several gaps to be covered so we could also expect a short squeeze and also an array of orders to sweep buy stop losses too. 