XRP long swing trade opportunity emerging
2025-01-05
Category: None

BYBIT:XRPUSDT  is in a flag pattern, bullish from the previous move. Technical analysis theory says that statistically, this chart pattern provides a higher probability of a future bullish price move than a bearish one.

Given the previous large gyrations of the price while within the flag, and that the specific time of the expected bullish move is unknown, the trading opportunity is better suited to a swing trade than a margin one (as most margin trades have a tighter SL than a swing trade and a long flag might trigger the SL of a margin trade just because of the nature of the chart pattern)

The trading approach would be to await a move back to the bottom of the flag for entry, which will also be a level where the 50 DMA also provides some level of support, utilise a 2 day filter to ensure that the price move to the bottom does not precede the price falling out of the flag / pattern failure (as previous moved have tended to go below the flag bottom on the 1 day chart), and then enter.

The TP would be the size of flagpole (approx. 1.35 USDT). The SL would be when the price has closed below the 50 DMA or flag bottom (depending on risk appetite) with a 3 day filter.

Risks to this trade: The current price rise (bull run) of most stocks and crypto currently can be traced back to the election victory of Trump and the expectation that his policies will be favourable to crypto and US businesses. These policies have yet to be defined and it is unknown if they will actually become policies. Therefore, it is probable that any setback to Trump's attempt to either formulate/implement these policies, or perception of not intending to actually even have them will be seen by the market as extremely negative and will likely cause the prices to fall as dramatically as they have risen.

Note: The entry point for this trade can also be taken as an entry point for a next leg of a DCA purchase or a general buy and hold.