What happens to Bitcoin after the U.S. election?
2024-11-05

The D-Day for U.S. elections is here, and the short-term impact of the outcome on Bitcoin (BTC) could be big.

According to the latest Bernstein outlook, a Harris win could drag BTC to $50K, while Trump’s victory could rally it to a range between $80K-$90K. 

The research and brokerage firm cited Harris’s relatively hawkish stance as the reason for BTC’s $50K target.

But if Trump emerges as the winner, the analysts projected that BTC could hit a new ATH, citing the former president’s pro-crypto stance. 

Amberdata, a blockchain insights firm, and asset manager Bitwise, echoed the same projection, although with slightly different targets. 

According to Amberdata analysts, there could be a $6K-$8K price swing depending on who wins the U.S. elections.

This was consistent with recent action by hedge funds for potential bullish outcomes while covering for likely wild BTC price swings. 

Based on BTC’s sensitivity to Trump’s odds on Polymarket, Bitwise analysts found BTC could surge 10% if Trump wins. Conversely, BTC could drop by nearly 10% if Harris wins.

That said, at press time, Deribit data showed options traders were pricing a 21% chance of BTC hitting $80K by the end of November.

When zooming out from the short-term U.S. election noise, BTC’s long-term impact has always been positive in the past three election cycles, with Bernstein projecting $200K by 2025. 