Kaspa technical analysis + trade plan (27.09.2024) by BF
2024-09-27

Technical Analysis + trade plan by Blaž Fabjan

Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge (Uptrend Bias)

A falling wedge pattern is present, which typically signals a bullish reversal. In this case, the price seems to be nearing the breakout point of the wedge. The breakout direction is upwards, and this pattern typically leads to a price increase if confirmed.

Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance Line: The upper line of the falling wedge, acting as dynamic resistance.
Support Line: The lower line of the wedge, acting as dynamic support.
Volume

Volume levels indicate significant interest, especially when approaching a potential breakout zone. The volume profile shows that recent trading sessions have been accompanied by a spike in activity, which can be a good sign for momentum.

Indicators

VMC Cipher B (Divergences): This indicator shows divergence signals, indicating possible trend reversals. It appears to be bullish with green dots forming at key points, suggesting an upward move.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around 54.79, which is neutral but slightly tilting towards bullish. It suggests that the market isn't overbought or oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator: Around 75.24, this indicator shows a bullish cross, indicating momentum might be shifting upward, but it's approaching the overbought zone.

HMA+ Histogram: Appears to be indicating short-term momentum change as the trend might be shifting upwards.

Price Prediction/Target

If the falling wedge plays out as expected, the price could target higher levels, breaking the $0.165-$0.170 range. The chart suggests a further upward target in the next phase, as highlighted by the projected arrow and airplane symbol.

 Trading Plan 

 Entry Strategy: 

Buy on Breakout: If the price breaks above the resistance line of the falling wedge (around $0.166 or slightly higher), consider entering a long position.
Confirmation: Wait for at least a 4-hour candle close above the resistance to confirm the breakout.

Aggressive Entry: You could also enter once the price reaches near the support line but remains cautious if the breakout has not been confirmed.

Stop Loss:

Place a stop loss below the recent swing low or just under the support line of the wedge (around $0.160). This will protect against a potential fake breakout.

Take Profit Targets:

Short-term Target: $0.175 - $0.180 (the first major resistance after breakout).
Medium-term Target: $0.190 and beyond, as indicated by the chart.

Risk Management:

Avoid risking more than 2-3% of your total portfolio on this trade.
Adjust your position size based on the stop-loss distance and your risk tolerance.
Monitoring:

Keep an eye on the volume and the RSI levels. If RSI enters the overbought zone (above 70), consider reducing your position or securing profits.

Watch for any signs of a failed breakout, as this could lead to a sharp drop back into the wedge pattern.

Exit Strategy:

If the price fails to break out and starts to drop below the support line, exit the trade.
If the price hits the overbought zone on both RSI and Stochastic, it might be wise to secure profits at key levels mentioned.

Conclusion:
The overall outlook based on the chart suggests a bullish breakout is likely if the falling wedge pattern completes. This offers a good risk-to-reward ratio for a long position if managed carefully with proper stop losses and monitoring of key indicators like volume and RSI.