Bitcoin on 5th Elliot Wave ? Whats next ?
2025-01-22
Category: None


I think there can be little doubt as to the fact that we ARE  on the 5th Elliot wave and so an ABC correction should be expected.
The question is  how Deep will that go
And we all know how hard that is to predict, Stupid to try and be to clever about it, even more so these days with times changing in Crypto world
However, given market sentiment, I do not think it will go to deep
TradingView has an excellent tool for Elliot waves but I do think this is predicting a drastic drop in error
  
As you can see, it suggests a drop down to around the 200 EMA ( Yellow) at around 51K !
I do not think we are going to see that  just yet. Bitcoin has broken so many rules again. Including the bearish pennant it destroyed in Jan 2023
For me, I think it is highly unlikely we will Drop to far and the long term rising support line off Jan 2023 is the Floor for now.
Even a Vertical drop  from our current position would being us to around 73K on the rising Support line.
We are most likely in for a long Ranging again and we have yet to fully see the range width
( having said that, it could drop like a Stome, be prepared )
The deepest dip so far this cycle has been -29% when we ranged for 6 months in March - Sep 2024. This then bounced off the rising support and brought us to where we are now.

So could we see an ABC correction in a similar range ?
YES - a -30% Drop also brings us nicely into the still open CME  gap at 77K - 80K. It needs filling and CME Gaps ALWAYS  get filled eventually.
A Dip like that over the next 6 months would also reset the overbought Weekly MACD
   
As you can see, that MACD needs to reset, BEFORE we try for the Cycle Top ATH.
It took 6 months to cool off in March - Sep 2024
MACD can range high but I have never seen that on a Weekly.........But.........
Accumulation is still happening. Adoption of BTC is high

So, in conclusion, we wait. The FED next week will certainly add to the Mix with its choice of Rates
But what ever happens, BTC is currently OVERBOUGHT on Weekly - Rising from neutral on a Daily and falling Bearish on 1 & 4 hour
It can move higher, it would be better if it cooled off for a bit
And in  the back of my mind, I still see that 2013-2017 Fratal that also suggests a -30% pull back - but we are getting late fo that if we going to stray on the fractel 
Time Will tell