Possibility of sideways until the next volatility period
2024-12-10


(Title) The key is whether sideways can occur until the next volatility period

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(USDT 1D chart)


(USDC 1D chart)


(BTC.D 1D chart)


(USDT.D 1D chart)


The point to watch for USDT and USDC is whether they can maintain their upward trend.

BTC dominance failed to fall below 55.01 and is showing signs of touching the MS-Signal indicator.

The key is whether it can meet resistance near the MS-Signal indicator and fall.

The key is whether USDT dominance can meet resistance near the 3.92-4.31 range and fall.

I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance needs to fall below 55.01 and remain there or continue to fall.

For the coin market itself to maintain an upward trend, I think that USDT dominance needs to remain below 4.97 or continue to fall.

Therefore, we need to check whether the content I mentioned above is maintained or whether it satisfies the content for BTC.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

As I mentioned yesterday, there has been a movement in BTC dominance and USDT dominance.

However, I think that for the trend to change, it depends on how BTC moves around 95904.28-98892.0.

That is, if the price is maintained around 95904.28-98892.0 until around December 27, I think it is highly likely that the StochRSI indicator will be reset and the upward trend will continue.

Otherwise, if it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, that is, below the MS-Signal indicator, and shows resistance, it is likely to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.

This movement can be seen as a pull back due to profit taking to relieve fatigue from the upward trend that has continued so far.


I think this can be seen as profit taking for the upward trend that started in 2023.

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Due to this decline, the BW(100) indicator is showing signs of being created at the 101109.59 point and the HA-High indicator at the 97821.58 point.

Accordingly, we can see that the high point section has risen.

Therefore, if the HA-High indicator is generated at the 97821.58 point, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around this area.

In any case, what we need to look at importantly is whether it can be supported and rise around the M-Signal and MS-Signal indicators on the 1D chart.

The key is whether it can be maintained until the next volatility period, around December 27th.

To do so, I think funds should flow out of altcoins and the price of BTC should be defended.

I think it is currently showing that pattern, but I will have to wait and see a little longer.

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Have a good time.
Thank you.

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- ​​Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.

(BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.

Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.

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(LOG chart)

Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.

Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.

Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.

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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.

That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.

The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.

Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.

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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.

It is up to you how to view and respond to it.

Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.

However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.

The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.

Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

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