BTC/USDT: Range Reversal in Play or More Bearish Traps Ahead?
2025-01-10
Category: None

Market Structure Update 
BTC/USDT showed a reaction from the 92,000 support level, as anticipated in yesterday’s analysis. The price has bounced but is now stalling near 94,000, just under the EMA on the H4 timeframe. This reflects a typical range-bound market dynamic, where bulls defend the lows, but bears remain active near the moving average.

We’re still within the 91,000–102,000 range, suggesting a balance of buyers and sellers. The lower boundary's defense aligns with the 80% probability of range reversals, but the absence of strong bullish momentum hints at indecision.

 For the Bulls: 
The rejection at 91,000 confirms support remains intact.
The pullback could establish a higher low above 92,500, signaling an attempt to retest the 96,000–98,000 zone.
A break above 94,500 and a close above the EMA could strengthen bullish sentiment.
Probability: 70% for a continued range-bound move toward 96,000.

 For the Bears: 
The bounce lacks conviction, with small-bodied candles and limited follow-through.
The EMA remains a dynamic resistance, curbing bullish attempts.
A failure to hold above 91,000 would open the door to a test of 90,000 or lower.
Probability: 30% for a breakdown below the range if 91,000 is breached.

 Insights: 
Ledges and Probabilities in Ranges: The price often oscillates within a trading range, with edges like 91,000 and 102,000 acting as key inflection points. Understanding these zones helps traders anticipate reversals or breakouts.
EMA as Resistance: In a bearish environment, the EMA acts as a barrier. A breakout above it often signals that bulls are regaining control.
Reading Candle Clarity: Watch for larger-bodied bars or gaps as signs of strength or weakness.


Do you think the bulls can reclaim control, or are we heading for a deeper pullback? Let’s hear your thoughts—share your setups and market perspectives in the comments!

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