We are at the local top
2025-01-30
Category: None

Elliot wave counts from one year back makes it clear we are at the end of 5 wave. This cycle is mainly driven by US economy, all moves comes during US trading hours. There is very little retail participation in bitcoin trades, they are all in meme coins and altcoins. There is bearish sentiment in retail participants, but extremely bullish sentiment in US cooperate buyers, esp Micheal Saylor and others. 

Fundamentally also Trump trade is over. What trump did was to ease regulation which takes time to reflect in the market. His bitcoin reserve regulation does not buy bitcoins from market. In addition, by way of launching several meme coins he made his intentions clear (To extract as much money as possible from retail investors). 

Lower time frame chart wise it made an SFP or Swing failure pattern, made new lower highs and lows. Supposedly good news did not make into rallies. 

In Macro, central banks are re tightening monetary policy across the board. 

It seems only Saylor is buying bitcoin to avoid it crashing and closing below support. How long can he do that. He is also doing it by issuing more and more debt. More bitcoins he buys in these prices his average buy price increases. Closing and trading below his avg price for longer can make MicroStrategy bankrupt which would be disastrous to bitcoin. 

