14/10/24 Weekly outlook
2024-10-14

Last weeks high: $64,486.09
Last weeks low: $58,947.36
Midpoint: $61,716.73

Following a busy week of Data events with CPI & PPI price can be volatile and unpredictable, that was evident as BTC can be seen selling off going into those data events and despite a worse than forecast CPI, the markets responded quite well leading to a climb from Thursday onwards up to the 0.75 line.

A weekend of chop gave a positive enough close to warrant a large buy candle in the opening hours of this week, could this be setting the pace for the rest of the week? For me, I'm always a little wary of a "swing fail pattern" (SFP) as these patterns can be very bearish, a reversal at the beginning of the week can lead to a sell off that undoes the previous weeks work as price falls. Confirmation of this pattern would be a wick above weekly high followed by smaller lower highs and lower lows on a LTF (15m). 

Should BTC manage to stay above the weekly high and maintain structure the target is $66,500. This is an important target as Bitcoin has been trying to breakout of this downtrend for 6 months, anything beyond $66,500 is breaking out of the trend after 10 attempts!

This week we have the ECB interest rate decision, a second rate cut looks likely, the first rate cut set the pace for the US 50bps cut. Now the US look likely to cut by another 50bps in November to keep up. 
Altcoins are starting to look better than they have in the last two quarters. The timeline is cautiously optimistic, especially if BTC manages to breakout of the trend pattern. 

cautious optimism on the timeline 