BTC Trapped? Or Ready For Another Run
2024-10-21

Since hitting its high in March around 75k BTC has been trapped in a megaphone consolidation pattern.  Locally we have been trapped between 49k and 70k.  

There is no way to know if the pattern will continue but the longer it goes on the more likely it is to brake.

Current trading plan is to stick to the short side until the pattern brakes showing a clear sign of strength.

Higher prices are certainly obtainable  but since reaching that forcasted higher we have been in a down trend that simply hasn't ended yet.

If the pattern continues and that is a big if we would expect another lower low.

Looking at the volume profile we see a large low volume gap between 45 and 55K. 

49k may be a sufficient low.  It was a near perfect 38% retrace to the last low of 25k.  If we head lower the value area high around 45k would be just above the most typical retrace of 50% creating a reasonable target area  if there is more down side.

Current Trading Plan:
Continuing to target downside moves until the previous swing high of 70k is clearly broken with more than a wick and targeting the 45k area.

The longer we consolidated WITHOUT dropping the more likely it is that sellers have been absorbed and 49k is as low as we will see.

Trade Well....
Your Friend,
Degen