Bitcoin large timeframe trend
2024-09-26

Ok, so this is a less chaotic version of the same Bitcoin chart I posted a month or so ago. The high around March is still my target zone.

This version of the chart is for all of us Cup and Handle folks…of which I am often one…especially now that the price of BTC can be heavily influenced by the few. Please look at that volume from 2022 to 2023 in the gray box I drew. That’s a big move by a lot of big players I’ve circled in green there. The gray box after it is 2/3rds the volume. A very big grab for Bitcoin started a little more than a year ago and the levers started being played. There is objectively more accumulation in the mid to end of that zone than red when taking into account the price candles. And I am sure there was a whack of OTC buying during that period too. The following gray box is unnaturally stable. I don’t think there is anything organic about the action at all. Big players already had their teeth in before the ETF and I tend to believe price manipulation started in that era and has only become more of a stranglehold as we look toward the future. I am still bullish as ever though 😊

Now the chart ingredients. The gray vertical line from the bottom of the bear market through Dec 2022 reaches to the previous ATHs in 2021 and chops a little down into the top of the range we all know and stress about for the last 7 months. The second gray vertical line is the same height as the first and extends from a little up from the bottom of that 7 month range to a 110k zone. The timing I have chosen for the top is relative to the steepening of BTC bull markets over each epoch as I have noted in my last BTC post combined with the logarithmic amplitude decay. Obviously the top timing can change based on events in the upcoming months, but for now this is my thesis.

The reason I overlap the top of the first gray vertical and the bottom of the second is me just being conservative. Traditionally the bottom of the second gray leg in a cup and handle move would start at a confirmed breakout from the range. If this is the case sometime in Oct-Nov then a top may be in the 123k area. I’ll only be holding a small portion by that time, if and when that happens.

Last line is the yellow. It starts at the peak of Dec 2017, kisses the peaks of 2021 and hits what I theorize will be the peak in 2025.

Red and Black horizontals remain my exit points as noted before. Good luck to all out there and all the best. Cheers.
