ETH - LTF Pattern before FOMC
2025-01-29
Category: None

FOMC starts in about 2 hours and ETH is forming a lower timeframe symmetrical triangle that could signal where our next move is heading. 

This is only the 30 minute so price has not had much time to develop within this pattern, but what we have seen so far has been pretty valid.

Whether the market breaks to the upside of the downside will most likely depending on the interest decision made today at the FOMC. It is hard to predict which way this pattern will break, but we can react and know the targets in advance based on which way is chosen.

IF PRICE BREAKS DOWN: If price breaks to the downside of this orange triangle then most likely this will be looked at as a mini bear flag. Taking the flagpole extension target (orange line) and putting it at the breakdown level it would give us a price target of $2,750-$2,800. There is a very large amount of old resistance that would be turned into new support in that range and also would be testing the bottom of our falling wedge pattern as support. So if price does start to collapse what that price range for a bottom to be formed. 

IF PRICE BREAKS OUT: If price breaks to the upside of this orange triangle then this will most likely be viewed as a symmetrical triangle pattern. Taking the measured move (dotted white line) and putting it at the breakout point would give us a measured move target around $3,350. This is right in line with a lot of resistance in that range and the 4H 200 MA.

However if the breakout scenario does occur then it will lead to a much larger move to the upside. Most likely that will give ETH the fuel to break out of its falling wedge pattern and begin its rally to test the $4,100 level and higher. This would probably start the next leg of the bull market where we have historically seen really good returns for ETH and Altcoins during this period of the market.

Therefore, no matter what happens with FOMC watch for one of these two scenarios to play out. 