Bitcoin will return to above 100K in the near future
2025-02-08
Category: None

Pullback is normal, but the trend is still upward
Bitcoin is currently consolidating at a high level, mainly affected by the following factors:
• ETF fund flow: Although the inflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs has a supporting role, it may not be able to continue to push prices up significantly in the short term.
• Fed policy: The market is still observing the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. If interest rates remain high for a long time, Bitcoin may be under pressure in the short term.
• Institutional behavior: Some large funds have taken profits at high levels, and the market needs new buying to take over.

My opinion is that short-term pullbacks are normal and should not be interpreted as a trend reversal. As long as Bitcoin can stabilize in the 90K-92K range, it still has the possibility of continuing to hit new highs.

The bull market is not over yet, but the pace will slow down

From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a bull market, but the pace will not be as rapid as in 2020-2021. The reasons include:
• Expected supply halving (April 2024): Historically, each time Bitcoin halved, it would experience a bull market, but the rising rhythm is usually first oscillating and then breaking out.
• Institutionalization trend: After institutional investors enter, market volatility may decrease, but the trend is more persistent.
• Global macroeconomics: If expectations of recession intensify, the market may turn to more conservative assets, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin in the short term.

Trading advice: Buy on dips, don't chase up
• Short-term: Wait for a pullback to around 90K-92K to buy, observe the support strength, if it stabilizes, you can short-term layout; if it falls below 90K, you can cover your position.
• Medium-term: If it breaks through 100K and stabilizes, the trend will re-accelerate, and you can follow the trend.

Summary of views
There is a risk of a pullback in the short term, but the bull market is not over yet. Bitcoin's trend may be more volatile, don't chase high, and wait for better buying opportunities.