The Beginning and End of the Altcoin Bull Market
2024-12-03


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(USDT Chart)



(USDC Chart)



A lot of money is flowing into the coin market.

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(BTC.D 1M chart)

If BTC dominance falls below 55.01 and is maintained or continues to decline, the coin market is expected to start an altcoin bull market.

When the altcoin bull market starts (some altcoins have started to rise), if you buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a bearish candle, you will almost always be able to make a profit.

However, when the altcoin bull market starts, there is a high possibility that the altcoin will rise due to cyclical pumping, so it is recommended to maintain the coin (token) you have purchased once if possible.

Then, if you buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a bearish candle one day, it may turn into a bearish trend, so it is recommended to set a stop loss point.

It is necessary to consider a strategy to maximize profits by purchasing additional altcoins that are currently held, that is, altcoins with a yield of over 50%, when they show a decline of around -10%.

When purchasing additional altcoins, it is recommended to proceed after confirming that they are supported by the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.

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(USDT.D 1M chart)

Then, I wonder how long the altcoin bull market will continue.

I expect the altcoin bull market to continue until the USDT dominance falls to around 2.84.

After that, the coin market is expected to experience a large plunge as the USDT dominance rises significantly.

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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

Since the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart has touched the 100 point in the overbought zone, an initialization operation is expected to occur.

If this initialization operation maintains the price above 1.618 (89050.0), the coin market is expected to continue its upward trend.

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(1D chart)

Since the StochRSI indicator on the 1D chart has entered the 50 point zone, volatility is likely to occur.

It is expected that the volatility period will continue until December 4, so it is necessary to check the movement.

If BTC falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, i.e. below 90586.92, most coins (tokens) in the coin market are expected to record a large decline.

However, if it shows support around 87.8K-89K, it will show a large increase again.

The large increase at this time will be in altcoins.

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Since the box section of the current HA-High indicator is formed over the 91792.14-98871.80 section, the point to watch is whether it moves sideways around this section.

If BTC rises to around 1.902 (101784.54), I think the coin market is likely to record a large increase.

However, if BTC falls below 98892.0, it is expected to fall again, so caution is required when trading.

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As I mentioned in the 1W chart description, if BTC touches over 100K or falls after encountering resistance near 98892.0, you should check if the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart is initialized.

This is expected to be an important time to decide when to buy in the short term.

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Please refer to the previous idea charts for information on BTC's down or up points.

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Have a good time.
Thank you.

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- ​​Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.

(BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.

Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.

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(LOG chart)

As you can see from the LOG chart, the upward trend is decreasing.

Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.

Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.

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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2015.

In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the upward wave.

The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2019.

Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.

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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.

It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.

When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.

However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.

This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.

Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.

1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15

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