Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Breakout or Crash?
2025-02-12
Category: None

Greetings to everyone, this is RONIN! 🔥

In this article, we will try to analyze the current trends in both the crypto market as a whole and specifically Bitcoin.

I believe you might have noticed a certain calming of movements within the price range of $100,000 to $94,000. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within this range, gradually and slowly recovering 📈 but quickly returning to the price level 📉. Based on the chart, I can make a clear assumption that the market is in a local sideways range, which has locked our movements in anticipation of a further impulse and a breakout of the $103,000 level 🚀. However, we haven’t seen the price consolidate above this level.

📊 Level analysis shows that the market has attempted to break through the key support zone at $92,400 six times, but each time it approached this zone, massive buybacks occurred, pushing Bitcoin slightly upwards.

🤔 What is the market waiting for? Why isn't it surging to $120,000–$150,000 or dropping to $88,000?
The answer is simple: the market is currently driven by two emotions—fear and greed 😨🤑, as always, but now we have a very interesting situation that the crypto market has never been in before!

🧐 Let’s dive deeper into what’s happening here
We have the Trump effect 🇺🇸, which has awakened the American public and economy. More than 20 states are already planning to create Bitcoin reserves, and there are active discussions about establishing a national federal cryptocurrency reserve 🏦💰.

However, alongside this, we face the risk of economic instability and potential trade wars ⚔️ between the U.S. and China 🇺🇸🇨🇳 as well as the U.S. and Europe 🇺🇸🇪🇺.

❓ But why should trade wars concern us when we’re talking about cryptocurrency?
The answer is simple: these trade wars won’t directly impact crypto, but they will have an indirect effect.
📌 When the world is stable, investors are open to risk. They actively invest in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and ETFs 📈.
📌 When instability looms, they shift their capital into safe-haven assets 💰, such as gold 🏆, which has been breaking records over the past few months.

🔥 We’ve already witnessed how trade wars can indirectly influence the crypto market. For example, the recent Ethereum crash 🚨 from $3,200 to $2,100 overnight 😱—a 30% drop in market capitalization.

🔍 What’s actually happening?
💡 There are no specific negative news events for crypto, but there are technical liquidation imbalances.
Exchanges can manipulate liquidity 💹—for example, by selling or buying assets worth billions of dollars, forcing futures traders into liquidations 🚀💥.

That night alone, $8,000,000,000 was liquidated—setting a record for altcoin liquidations in a single day! 💣

🔑 What’s next?
Right now, there’s a strong fundamental trend:
✔️ Institutional investors are entering crypto 🏛️
✔️ The U.S., EU, and major countries are getting involved in cryptocurrency regulation and adoption 🌍
✔️ Futures ETFs and other financial instruments are making market entry easier 📊

But! 🤨
There are three "black swans" that could temporarily change the trend:

1️⃣ The U.S.-China Trade War ⚔️
– If tensions escalate, major players might use this for market manipulation 🎭
– I personally plan to hold through and buy assets at key support levels 🔄

2️⃣ Delays in the establishment of the federal Bitcoin reserve 🇺🇸🏦
– If there are delays and political disagreements, this could temporarily weaken investor interest ❄️
– However, this is only a matter of time, as the process is inevitable.

3️⃣ Geopolitical tensions 🕊️⚠️
– Conflicts in the Middle East, Europe, and other regions could create economic uncertainty.
– However, a swift resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war could be perceived positively by the market, boosting capital inflows into crypto 🚀

📈 Chart-Based Forecast
🔹 Key support level — $92,473 📍
🔹 If the price breaks below and consolidates for 2-3 daily candles, the market could enter a medium-term correction toward $80,000 – $72,000 😰
🔹 However, a bounce from $92,400 and a move toward $100,000 is a more likely scenario 🚀

At the moment, big players benefit from keeping the market in suspense, triggering stop-losses and liquidations for traders using leverage 💥.

📢 My conclusion: There is no fundamental reason for a major crash, but short-term manipulations are possible.

🔔 Follow me on TradingView! 📊
💡 Or check out my analytical resource, which will be fully operational soon! 💻🚀