bitcoin hits 749k into 2025.
2024-12-08

gm,

in previous cycles, the duration from cycle low to cycle high has typically been roughly 1,000–1,100 days. currently, we are 742 days in, which suggests we still have about a year until the "expected top." this projected top also aligns with the global liquidity index in q4 of 2025.

the way i interpret this current structure is straightforward:
from the november 2022 low to the march 2024 high, the price action visually resembles five waves up. this is followed by a clean three-wave correction into august of 2024.

from the low in august of 2024, bitcoin appears to have formed a clean five-wave impulse to the upside and is now approaching a top. in theory, once this top is established, we should expect a three-wave corrective move to backtest the previous support. this support corresponds to the 2021/2024 highs and the previous accumulation zone.

hypothetically, backtesting the prior supply zone would likely liquidate many late long positions, providing a full sentiment reset. this reset could allow bitcoin to rebound with significant force, potentially reaching unprecedented levels.

my estimated upside target for q4 2025 is approximately $749,000.

✌️
