BTCUSDT 
2024-11-09

📉 BTC/USDT Analysis Update 📉 

The market is currently forming an ending diagonal pattern, which has yet to complete, creating a sense of tension and uncertainty. Given the current setup, I have two possible counts for BTC's next move, and it's unclear which direction will prevail. Therefore, I’m holding off on opening a short position until I see a clear breakdown.

 🟠 Bearish Scenario - Red Path 
The first scenario involves BTC breaking down from its current level. A move below $75,600 would confirm this breakdown, signaling the start of a correction. In this case, the target zones would be between $71,000 - $72,000.

 🔵 Alternate Scenario - Blue Path 
Alternatively, BTC might make one more push higher into the $77,200 - $78,200 range before starting its downward correction. This would allow for a deeper, more complete pattern before a potential reversal.

 📉 Risk Assessment 
Right now, the setup is like a double-edged sword—taking a short position with a stop-loss at the recent high carries significant risk. There's a 50% chance of getting stopped out by a quick spike above the current level before a reversal happens. The declining volume and numerous bearish divergences on multiple timeframes (15m, 1H, 4H) support the idea of an imminent correction, but this doesn’t rule out the possibility of a quick 2-3% rally before the correction takes hold.

 📝 Plan 
I’m waiting for a breakdown confirmation below $75,600 to confidently enter a short position. Until then, I'll be cautious, as BTC could still make a final upward move, driven by low volume and divergences.


 Disclaimer: 
⚠️ This is not financial advice! All information provided is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Trading carries a high risk and may result in the loss of capital 

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