BTCUSDT KEY LEVEL
2024-10-18

📌 Trading Instrument: BTC/USDT
🔶 Key Levels and Scenarios 🔶

 📝 Market Overview: 
BTC is currently in a critical zone where it could either continue its bullish momentum or see a breakdown from the current trend. The market remains bullish until it breaks below 67.6k, which is the key diagonal trendline marking the end of the impulsive movement from the bottom of the channel.

On the 4H timeframe, there is a bearish divergence between wave 3 and wave 5, which signals potential weakness. However, this does not mean the market can't go higher. In fact, unless the oscillator (RSI) makes a higher high (HH), this divergence remains valid. If the RSI pushes higher than 77, the bearish divergence will be invalidated, and we could see BTC continue its bullish trend.

 🎯 What to Do Now? 
No current position?
It's advisable to stay out and wait for a clear breakdown or breakout to confirm direction.
Breakdown Scenario
Key Breakdown Level: 67.6k
If this level breaks, it will mark the end of the current bullish momentum. In that case, expect targets at:
 
 
 65k
 63.8k
 62.6k (aligns with Fibonacci levels 0.382 - 0.5)
 
 Further Downside: 
The 0.61 Fibonacci retracement is likely to be the final target in a breakdown scenario, aligning with target 3 on the chart.

 Breakout Scenario 
 Key Breakout Level:  73k
 
 A breakout above 73k will invalidate the bearish case and could lead to an explosive move toward:
 100k – 110k.
 
 Divergence Invalidation 
To invalidate the current bearish divergence, the RSI needs to rise above 77, confirming higher prices. Otherwise, the market could reverse at any time.
 🚨 Strategy: 

Stay cautious. If you're not in a position, it’s best to wait for either a confirmed breakdown below 67.6k or a breakout above 73k. Both scenarios offer clarity on the next major move. 
 🔶 Important Note: 🔶 
Based on the rejection and the market's movement in the coming period, we will be able to determine whether the market is heading towards a new All-Time High (ATH) of 100-110k, or if we are in for a deeper correction with potential targets of:

 
 58k
 48k
 44k
 40k
 
The market reaction at these critical levels will guide us in identifying the next major trend shift.
🚨 Disclaimer:🚨
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Markets are highly volatile, and you should only invest money you are prepared to lose.