Bitcoin: on the verge of a breakthrough or reversal?
2025-02-06
Category: None

Bitcoin's global trend is still going up, but the current consolidation phase is making us wonder: will we see a new all-time high, or is the market getting ready for a correction? Let's take a look at the situation using technical and fundamental analysis. 


 1. Current Situation: consolidation after growth 

The daily chart of  BINANCE:BTCUSDT  shows that after the rapid growth since October 2024, the price reached the area of 106,000 USDT, but could not stay above it. Bitcoin is now consolidating in the range of 95,000 - 106,000 USDT, indicating a redistribution of liquidity.
 
 The global trend remains bullish — lows and highs continue to rise.
 Accumulation phase — high volatility in the range may be preparation for a new move.
 Volumes are declining — indicating either a decline in buyer interest or a lull before momentum.
 
However, current movements show that the market has encountered resistance and is not showing clear strength.


 2. Signs of a weakening trend 

Even though the global trend is bullish, the current dynamics of BTC are a bit concerning:
 
 Lack of a confident breakdown of 106,000 USDT - BTC tested this level, but each time it rolled back down.
 False upside breakouts with sharp pullbacks - this could indicate some bullish weakness.
 Decreasing volumes on bounces are a sign of less activity from buyers.
 
If BTC consolidates below 95,000 USDT, it might signal a potential reversal and the start of a deeper correction.


 3. Priority scenario: high probability of correction 

Right now, it looks like BTC might be facing a bit of a slowdown at the 100,000 - 105,000 USDT levels. This could potentially lead to a slight dip, but nothing to worry about just yet.
 
 If we see a bit of a pullback below 95,000 USDT, it might be a sign that things are heading towards the 88,000 - 90,000 USDT range.
 And, just a heads up, there's a chance that some institutional profit-taking might be adding a bit of pressure.
 It's also important to note that a rise in open interest in futures without spot market support is a worrying signal.
 

 4. What could change the scenario? 

If BTC breaks 105,000 USDT with strong volume and then consolidates above that level, it could mean more upside for us.


 5. Here are some fundamental factors that might point to a correction: 
 
 The Fed isn't cutting rates yet, which is keeping the growth of risky assets in check.
 Large players are focusing on maximizing their profits, and there are signs of selling on hayahs.
 There's a lack of drivers for impulsive growth, so the market is waiting for new triggers.
 

 6. Here's an alternative bullish scenario: 

If BTC holds above 95,000 USDT and breaks through 105,000 USDT with volumes, it could open up the path to 110,000 - 115,000 USDT. So, what does this all mean? Well, it's important to stay cautious and watch the market closely. BTC is currently in a range between 95,000 and 105,000 USDT, but there aren't any strong bullish signals yet. 


 The current dynamics suggest that growth might be a bit slower, and there's a chance we could see a slight dip. My recommendation? Keep an eye on how BTC reacts at 95,000 USDT. If it doesn't hold, it might be a good idea to wait and see if it tests the 88,000 USDT level. 

 📢 And don't worry, subscribers! Stay tuned for all the latest updates on BTC and other assets. 🚀