2024.10.08 BTC(₿) Analysis
2024-10-16

💡Brief analysis of the current state of Bitcoin 
In November 2022,  OKX:BTCUSDT.P  has reached its low point. Over the following years, consistent trend of the bullish market has brought about a historic price renewal with the value of 73,000$ in the early 2024. After a rapid increase, bitcoin now shows a sideways market waiting for a new direction to be created by buyers and sellers. 

 1. BTC Prediction / Where is it headed? 
  
Referring to the Elliott wave theory, we can anticipate 2 scenarios for future analysis.   

🔸Main perspective
We can assume that a 5th impulse wave is remaining after the completion of the last correction wave(4th).
🔸Sub perspective
'One cycle' of the Elliott wave has been completed, consequently turning the market into a bearish direction in the future. 

🎯Sticking to the  ✅Main perspective  would be more plausible since it clearly shows the 4th wave in the state of being counted as well as showing a familiar pattern referring to Bitcoin’s historic data.

 2. Future Predictions 
  
We can assume two types of possibilities which are: 'Ending diagonal' and 'Complex correction'. 

🔸Ending diagonal
- Bitcoin will ascend(abc) by breaking towards the initial high price and form an 'Ending diagonal(1,2,3,4,5) for the 5th wave, which will turn into a bearish market afterwards
🔸Complex correction (WXY)
- Still in the state of completing the Complex correction (WXY) wave, where 'Y' will be forming a triangle pattern(a,b,c,d,e)

🎯 Two options have been given, but would consider the latter option(✅Complex correction) since it clearly shows a manifest pattern of WXY rather than an 'Ending diagonal'

 3. Why can't "Ending diagonal" be an option ? 
  
🔸1st reason - No penetration on the resistance level. 
The movement from BTC should've made a breakthrough(white circle) on the resistance level earlier, but failed. It is always important to bear in mind about the period where BTC should go up in a given timeframe. 

🔸2nd reason - Formation of the ABC pattern
  
Clear 'ABC' pattern has already been created(red line), making the chart descending afterwards. Consequently, leaning to high probability in forming a complex correction pattern.

 4. How to enter a trade from this POV? 
  
After assuming BTC is in the state of the 4th correction wave with forming a complex correction pattern(WXY), We can place a  short trade on (B)  and  place a Long trade  after it touches the bottom resistance level of the triangle pattern(Using a RSI indicator and finding an ascending divergence would increase credibility). Of course you may place another  short trade on (D)  after it touches the upper resistance level.

For a better price entry, always zoom in(Change time frame) the chart before entering a trade.
  
Despite our earnest efforts in analyzing chart patterns, there is no 100% win-rate. Therefore it is essential to exit a position partially(Half) for profit n loss ratio. Always use a stop-loss in order avoid liquidation of your valuable assets. 

 5. On a final note  🚀
There are always skepticism regarding the price increase on Bitcoin since current assets are low at the moment. However, the decrease in interest rates along with the participation of new Crypto investors is surely making the market more constructed. 
Slowly, but manifestly the SEC is acknowledging the Crypto scene in a positive way, not to mention the institutions that are related to it. Bitcoin has steadily turned about with more supporters than opposers.