btc usd UPDATE 
2025-01-10
Category: None

In the latest analysis, I highlighted the potential for a drawdown due to the completion of the last three months' bullish phase and the looming liquidation of over $1 billion around the 100K level.

I initially forecasted a strong likelihood of the price reaching 100K, driven by a breakout from the range that had held the price in equilibrium since December 20th.

Key Levels and Targets:

First Target: As per the December 28th analysis, the price successfully bounced within the 91K–100K range, followed by a bullish phase that reached 101K–102K. This area was significant as it coincided with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the daily sell and the 0.27 extension of the last daily long position, forming a key resistance zone. This intersection of levels reinforced the likelihood of a trend reversal.

Second Target: The price respected the 91K support, marking the lower bound of the previous range. However, we saw a notable shift in market behavior, indicating a potential change in trend. The price broke the range with a strong-bodied candle, followed by an opposite candle that triggered a corrective phase. This price reaction, following the liquidation, suggests the possibility of a reversal in the daily trend, with the longer-term bullish trend still intact on higher time frames.

Market Behavior and Sentiment:

The volatility index is stabilizing and remains below the second percentile, indicating lower market volatility. Despite this, I anticipate a bearish phase, which would be somewhat unexpected in the first quarter of the year. The 100K level, while psychologically significant, now appears to be a key point where market participants, including whales and institutional players, are reacting strongly.

Updated Forecast:

Given the recent price action, I now expect the price to test the 88K–86K support zone, with a critical focus on the 78K–74K region. These levels will be important to watch for any potential reversal signals or continuation of the bearish trend.