Bitcoin a RollerCoaster ride. Whats next?
2025-01-15
Category: None

Let’s take a journey through Bitcoin’s recent price action on the H4 chart. If you’re new to trading or just curious, this post will walk you through what’s happening – step by step, bar by bar. Let’s make sense of this wild ride together! 🚀

1. What’s the Big Picture?
* Trend:
    * The market shows an uptrend with a sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). This suggests bulls are in control.
* Support Levels:
    * Bar 1 and Bar 12: Around $96,000, forming a strong support zone.
    * Bar 4: $88,000, the key swing low.
* Resistance Levels:
    * Bar 14: $97,700, which may act as a ceiling unless broken decisively.

3. Key Patterns
* Measured Move (MM):
    * Distance from Bar 4 ($88,000) to Bar 9 ($96,000) is $8,000. Adding this to the breakout level around $96,000 gives a potential target of around $104,000.
* Inside Bars:
    * Bar 10 consolidates within Bar 9’s range, showing indecision before the next breakout.
* Exhaustion Gap:
    * The movement to $98,000 (Bar 14) hints at potential exhaustion as momentum slows.

4. Bull and Bear Cases
* Bullish Case:
    * If price breaks above $98,000, the target becomes $104,000 (Measured Move from Bar 4 to Bar 9).
    * Probability: 65%, given the series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
* Bearish Case:
    * A break below $96,000 could lead to a test of $94,000 or even $92,000.
    * Probability: 35%, as the current structure favors bulls.

5. Trading Setups
* Long Setup:
    * Entry: Above $98,000 (Bar 14 high).
    * Stop-Loss: Below $96,000 (Bar 12 low).
    * Target: $104,000 (MM projection).
* Short Setup:
    * Entry: Below $96,000 (Bar 12 low).
    * Stop-Loss: Above $98,000 (Bar 14 high).
    * Target: $92,000 (intermediate support).


* Measured Move (MM): This is a way to project future price levels by measuring the size of a previous move and applying it to the next potential breakout.
* Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL): These are building blocks of an uptrend. Each HH shows increasing bullish strength, while each HL confirms buyers’ dominance.


* Do you think Bitcoin will push through $98,000 and head toward $104,000? Or is this the beginning of a pullback? Share your thoughts in the comments! Let’s discuss and learn together!

