BTCUSDT Thoughts
2025-01-01
Category: None

Just thought I would post this slightly contrarian view. The 0.382 retracement of what I think is wave 3 of 3 is around $85K and this is where many analysts are expecting price to go. To be fair to them, this would be the normal pullback target. However, two things go against this argument. First, wave 4 of an impulse does not usually fall below the wave 4 of the previous move; this would be around $90.7K. BTC has already fallen far into this range and price action looks like we could be in a Wyckoff re-accumulation. The head and shoulders looms threateningly but I feel like it is probably a bear trap. The second reason is that BTC is crawling along the bottom of a rising channel that it has been near the top of since 2011 and it's move to the bottom of the channel began in June 2019. A significant dip would push it below the channel and signal a dramatic change in price action for BTC that I personally feel would invalidate the bull market case for 2025