Bitcoin Analysis (1D)
2024-11-13

Hello, fellow traders!
This is my analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSDT).

1️⃣ Analysis
We see the market in its historical rally after the election. I was hoping for a more steady, stable uptrend but instead we experienced an aggressive rally led by Bitcoin and Dogecoin. We now see the price being tested as it approaches the major resistance line (MRL). This line is based on the double peaks in 2021. When we extend the line to the right, as we see, it gives us an idea where to expect resistance. And here we are!

I was expecting a slower, calmer uptrend within the green uptrend channel but instead, we see the upper breakout of the channel, starting an even more aggressive uptrend – resulting in price already reaching the MRL. And as expected, it is currently facing some resistance.

2️⃣ Expectations
It’s very hard for us to predict what’s next because this is the price range we’ve never faced before. (This is also why I prefer swing trading over breakout trading 😅) However, there are still several scenarios we can expect. I’m not going to talk about the probability though because it seems meaningless considering the current market sentiments. 

This is the first scenario – Bitcoin reclaiming its aggressive momentum, breaking through the MRL and continuing the rally.

Second scenario – Bitcoin swinging between two resistance lines, forming a ‘rising wedge pattern’. Price may break through either way in the end.

Third – Bitcoin rebounding at the green resistance line, breaking through the MRL and showing rebound again at the MRL.

Fourth – Bitcoin forming double top, start of a downtrend. (I’m not going to elaborate further than this because there are too many variables down the way – if the price does move this way, I will then post about it.)

Last – of course we cannot exclude this scenario where Bitcoin breaks through the green resistance line. Price may then swing within the green channel, I don’t know.

3️⃣ Key approach
4️⃣ Other approach
5️⃣ Considerations
I don’t have any approaches on Bitcoin right now. I think it is very dangerous to make predictions where Bitcoin might head next, so I’d rather sit and watch, see how it turns out and react accordingly. Keep in mind to always enter after the confirmation!
For example, when the first scenario happens, enter after the rebound rather than entering after the breakout itself. 
Bitcoin is in its unprecedented range, please be extra extra cautious if you are thinking about joining the rally now. 

React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful.
God bless :)
Mark 4:39
