BTC Technical Analysis Kept Simple
2024-12-20
Category: None

This chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) price movement on a daily timeframe with several technical indicators and key levels highlighted. Here is a breakdown of the analysis:

Key Observations:

1. Price Levels:

The price recently broke below the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level near $105,595, which now acts as resistance.

The 100% Fibonacci level, around $94,916, is being tested and might act as support.

There is a green support zone near $85,000–$95,000 that could serve as a demand area for buyers.



2. Indicators:

Parabolic SAR (red dot): Indicates a bearish trend as the dot is above the price candles.

On-Balance Volume (OBV): Showing a downward trend, signaling decreasing buying pressure or increasing selling volume.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 45.05, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The RSI is trending downward, which aligns with the price drop.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): At 0.02, near the neutral line, suggesting weak inflows or a lack of strong accumulation.



3. 200-Day Moving Average (Red Line):

The 200-day moving average is rising but is significantly below the current price. This could indicate that the long-term trend remains bullish despite the short-term correction.


4. Volume:

Recent candles show higher volume on red candles, suggesting stronger selling pressure during the price drop.


Potential Scenarios:

1. Bullish Case:

If the price holds above the $94,916 (100% Fib level) or rebounds from the support zone ($85,000–$95,000), it could trigger a bullish recovery toward $105,595 and potentially retest $108,421.

A positive divergence in OBV or RSI could strengthen this case.


2. Bearish Case:

If the price breaks below the 100% Fib level, the next key support lies at $85,000–$86,000.

A failure to hold this zone might lead to a deeper correction toward the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level at $70,041.

Summary:

The price is in a short-term downtrend while approaching a significant support zone.


