Spring is Coming
2024-11-08

The last months in crypto markets have been firmly in the shadow of the looming US presidential elections. Whatever one's political stance, it was hard to argue that a Donald Trump victory would not be immensely positive for the crypto industry. The ongoing legal fights between US regulators such as the SEC and the crypto industry and the Biden administration's open hostility to the industry were a constant backdrop of the past years. In sharp contract, Republican candidate Trump had embraced the industry in early 2024. His appearance at a large Bitcoin conference in Nashville, his announcement to fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler on day 1 of a Trump administration and also his promise to build a national US Bitcoin reserve have been music to the ears of many a crypto trader.

No wonder that as soon as Trump started to take the lead on election night, Bitcoin rallied sharply. A new all-time-high of $75,000 per one Bitcoin was reached nearly effortlessly. Bitcoin has been trading above $76,000 for most of the post-election days. Across the industry, the drop in tension is almost palpable. No longer will a bad faith regulator pursue legitimate companies such as Coinbase, Uniswap or Consensys at will. No longer will Senate block common-sense crypto regulatory frameworks. The possibilities now seem almost limitless.

Coins of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects have seen some of the largest rallies since election days. Not only will these projects benefit from regulatory clarity, but their tokens might also start to receive genuine utility such as revenue shares. The fundraising environment for projects should become more open. Maybe more onchain projects will open up to American users. It is common practice for projects to geo-block American users for fear of the long arms of US law enforcement. It is nearly poetic justice that mainstream pollsters predicting a tight election were outperformed by Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that continuously showed Trump well ahead of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

What will the next months hold? US presidential elections tend to be bullish for crypto markets. After Obama’s 2012 victory, Bitcoin rose nearly 2,400% within a year. In 2016, following Trump’s success, Bitcoin soared 960% over the following 12 months. One year after Biden’s 2020 win, Bitcoin rose another 360%. Of course, Bitcoin's large market cap means that much more new capital must enter to move the price substantially. Yet, the optimism in the industry right now makes everything seem possible. Sure, disappointment could always come next year, but for now, Spring has arrived early. Let's enjoy the party while it lasts.