07/10/24 Weekly outlook
2024-10-07

Last weeks high: $65,605.03
Last weeks low: $59,829.32
Midpoint: $62,717.17


After geo-political escalations causing panic in the markets at the beginning of last week, BTC has been spending the second half of the week trying to recover losses. The 1D 200EMA came in as support midweek to cap the sell-off, a steady climb back up flipping the 4H 200EMA back to bullish and finally the week low reclaim in the dying hours of the week. This to me is very positive, showing strength in times of major uncertainty. Another outside force Bitcoin will encounter is the US presidential election, that is now less than one month away and definitely will sway traditional markets and crypto alike. 

This week we have some key data events:

Wednesday - FOMC minutes 
As the unemployment data came in better than forecast, this could be a sign of further rate cuts to come in November, we may get some clues on this in the report.

Thursday - CPI (YoY)
Previous: 2.5%
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual:???
With CPI forecast to drop closer to the FEDs 2.0% target, anything lower than 2.3% would be positive for markets, 2,3% is probably priced in and anything above would be negative for markets. 

Friday - PPI (MoM)
Previous: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual:???
Similar story in PPI as CPI, forecasts are for another drop and markets could react similarly to what's stated above. 

Data events can be a non-event but now that the rate cut cycle has begun and the US election is on the way these events are more important than ever. 
