Correction or no correction?
2025-01-02
Category: None

Since the end of 2017, the Bitcoin has been moving in a healthy channel up to this day, touching the upper trendline of the channel twice as often as the lower one, while nicely reacting to the Fibonacci levels of the channel. Currently, it is still moving within this practically all-time bullish channel. However, as a result of the Trump-jump, it has now reached the upper trendline of the channel for the fourth time.  

It is very important to understand that this channel is essentially BTC’s main channel of all time. While the breakout prediction for this bullish channel would theoretically be bearish, such an event would be, to put it mildly, an epic occurrence in BTC's history. We've seen similar moves in BTC's past—for example, the cup and handle formation, which developed over three years, with the “handle” portion essentially formed throughout most of 2024. Similarly, a characteristic of this main channel was the double top structure in 2021, which established the lower boundary of the channel and had notable head and shoulders formations at its peaks.  

Why is all this important for the period ahead?  
As I mentioned, we are currently rebounding from the upper line of the main channel since December 2024. By now, everyone has come across the dreaded "correction expectation." And not without reason. The question is whether the current movement is a normal small-structured channel movement or part of the almost expected correction? Perhaps both at the same time. It’s well-known that movements within larger channel structures also exhibit fractal-like channel behavior—smaller channels of various directions form complex larger channels.  

On BTC's higher timeframe chart, it’s evident that we reached the upper line of the main channel within another channel, the parent structure of which was the channel lasting from March to November 2024, from which BTC broke out healthily. Currently, BTC is moving within this smaller channel and seems to be heading toward its lower trendline, approximately below the 90,000 level. Things become interesting when this lower line is reached since this subchannel is also a bullish channel with a 78% bearish breakout projection. Should BTC break out from this, we would be witnessing a long-overdue correction in BTC's history, with the Fibonacci levels of the main channel determining the extent of the correction.  

Considering the history of the main channel in terms of Fibonacci levels, there’s no guarantee that the 61.8% level or the median will hold. I won't put more energy into this scenario—let’s bite our nails when it happens. 😊  

More likely scenario:  
In my opinion, a more probable and fundamentally sound scenario is that BTC remains in the subchannel. With January 19 approaching, it could head toward both the lower line and the upper line of the main channel, targeting the 110,000 level.  

Either way, we’re in for an exciting January! For those getting too anxious, remember the words of Virginia Viadura:   "Don’t worry kid, they’ll store it!" 