BTC 4H Reversal or More Downside?
2025-02-03
Category: None

Market Analysis Summary: Key Insights and Trading Strategy 

 Global Summary of the 4 Charts 1D/12H/4H/2H 
•  Daily & 12H:  The underlying trend ( MTFTI “Up” ) remains bullish, but signs of correction or profit-taking are emerging ( ISPD in the mid-high zone, average RSI ).
•  4H & 2H:  The correction is more pronounced, with low satisfaction levels ( 0.06 – 0.15 ) and RSI in the oversold zone. This suggests a possible local bottom, but the short-term momentum remains negative ( “Down” on 2H, borderline structure on 4H ).

 Recent Event and Market Impact 

A  violent crash  recently occurred, leading to over  $2 billion in liquidations , a level comparable to major correction events like  FTX or the COVID crisis . The primary cause seems to be rising  macroeconomic tensions , particularly a  trade war initiated by Trump with high tariffs , causing turmoil in both  traditional and crypto markets .

Despite this sharp drop,  key technical levels remain crucial . As long as  BTC does not break the critical $89,000 – $90,000 zone , a  bullish recovery scenario remains possible  after this extreme move. A  bear trap could also form , followed by a  bullish rebound if this support zone holds .

 Key Levels 
•  Supports: 
•  2H/4H AVWAP Low:  ~$92,000 – $92,600
•  1D AVWAP Low:  ~$78,200 (longer term)
•  Critical zone:  92K – $93K, with an ultimate threshold at 89K – $90K

•  Resistances: 
•  Moving Averages:  2H ~ $99.7K / 4H ~ $101K / Daily ~ $98.6K
•  Auto AVWAP High:  2H ~ $99.9K / Daily ~ $105K

 Most Relevant Timeframe for an Entry Point 
•  Short-term (2H, 4H):  More pronounced oversold conditions. For a  reactive swing trade , watch for a  local bottom on 2H/4H as long as 92K holds .
•  Positional investor (days/weeks):  Wait for  4H confirmation , detecting a  trend reversal (bullish crossover, rising satisfaction) above $95K – $96K .

 Conclusion and Recommendations 
	1.	 General Trend 
• On the  Daily/12H , the trend ( MTFTI ) remains  bullish . Short-term corrections ( 2H, 4H ) are significant, with  oversold indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI Boll) .
• A  buy-the-dip bias is preferred as long as BTC remains above 89K – $90K USDT .
	2.	 Most Interesting Timeframe for an Entry Point 
•  4H appears to be the most relevant timeframe  to detect a potential recovery swing.
•  ISPD indicator is very low (Satisfaction ~0.06) .
•  Mason’s line signals a possible capitulation .
•  4H RSI is near the oversold zone .
• A  reversal signal (breakout of a local resistance or bullish crossover) is awaited before entering a position .
	3.	 Key Levels 
•  Major support:  92K (or 89K as the last defense line).
•  Secondary support:  Daily LoAVWAP near $78K in case of a more violent sell-off.
•  Resistances: 
•  ~$99K – $100K  (short-term MAs 2H/4H & AVWAP High 2H)
•  $105K in Daily (HiAVWAP) 
	4.	 Strategy 
•  Bullish scenario preferred: 
Monitor the  92K – $90K  zone. If the price  defends this area , a  technical rebound on 4H/2H could target $99K, $105K, or beyond .
•  Bearish scenario: 
A  clear breakdown below 89K  would invalidate  flat/continuation structures , leading to a  deeper medium/long-term correction  (potential flush toward  $78K ).

 Practical Approach 
•  For short-term traders: 
Wait for a  reversal signal on 2H/4H  (e.g.,  breakout of a local resistance or MTFTI turning “Up” ). Set a  tight stop-loss below 92K or 89K depending on risk appetite .

•  For swing/long-term investors: 
The  current correction can be used for DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging)  as long as  BTC remains above 89K . The  daily and weekly trends remain overall bullish .

 Final Thoughts 
• The market is indeed in a  correction phase , which  could be a healthy reset before a new bullish impulse .
• The  92K–89K zone remains the crucial “defense line.”  Below that,  caution is advised .
• The  mid-term outlook remains bullish unless a major event occurs .

 Happy trading and always practice rigorous risk management!