Historical short $BTC 
2024-12-03

Over the years, Bitcoin has developed a recognizable pattern: after a prolonged bearish phase, it experiences sideways movement to accumulate enough buyers. This is often followed by a significant upward movement, reaching an all-time high with around 100% growth. After this upward surge, the market typically transitions into a sideways phase, leading to a correction and money being pulled out of the market.

Observed so far:
 
     The initial pump
     Sideways movement
     Approximately 100% upward movement
 

What’s still to come:

 
     A correction of around -25% (~ FWB:73K  -  FWB:83K )
     Another upward movement of 100% (~$150k - $170k)
 
Why do I believe a correction will happen?
It’s not just historical data pointing to this. Additional factors include:

 
     Declining liquidity and ETF tools
     Downward momentum and reduced cash flow
     Long squeezes at $93k and bearish RSI divergence
     The Fear and Greed Index has been in "Greed" for over a month
     CME open interest has dramatically decreased from $21 billion to around $18 billion, indicating institutional investors are pulling their money out
     Futures open interest and ETF buying volume have also decreased, showing reduced buying pressure for Bitcoin during the recent upward movement
 

What will I do?
I plan to short Bitcoin to around $80k. Further details can be found in my new ideas.

I will also analyze the altcoin market cap very carefully. After Bitcoin's bull run, money typically flows into altcoins, starting with large-cap coins, then moving to mid-cap and low-cap coins, and eventually into meme coins like $DOGE.