WIF/USDT Elliott Wave C Analysis
2025-02-05
Category: None

1️⃣ Fibonacci Targets for Wave C Completion 
Wave C in an ABC correction typically extends to key Fibonacci levels derived from Wave A:

1.000 Fib Extension (~$2.851) → Most common Wave C completion target.
1.236 Fib Extension (~$4.049) → Stronger bearish momentum may push towards this level.
1.382 Fib Extension (~$5.031) → Overextended correction possibility.
1.618 Fib Extension (~$6.144) → Rare but possible deep Wave C completion.
📌 Interpretation: These levels represent potential Wave C termination zones where price might find support before transitioning into a new wave structure.

 2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Levels for Wave C Support Zones 
If the downward correction deepens, these retracement levels act as critical support:

0.618 Fib Retracement (~$0.614) – First deep corrective support, price may attempt a bounce here.
1.236 Fib Retracement (~$0.723) – Key structure validation level, break below signals further downside.
1.382 Fib Retracement (~$0.579) – Final support zone before significant breakdown risk.
📌 Interpretation: A rebound from these levels would support Wave C completion, whereas failure to hold them could indicate prolonged bearish pressure.

 3️⃣ Elliott Wave Structure & Wave C Confirmation 
Bullish Reversal Conditions
For Wave C to complete and initiate a reversal, the following must happen:

Price must break above the 1.000 Fib Extension ($2.851) to signal bullish intent.
Volume confirmation: A significant increase in buying volume at key support levels.
MACD bullish crossover on mid to high timeframes (1D/4H).
Bearish Risk Factors
Failure to hold $0.614 → Signals continued bearish control.
MACD remains bearish → No confirmation of trend reversal.
No breakout above $2.851 → Suggests deeper downside risk.
📌 Key Reversal Confirmation:
✅ Break above $2.851 → End of Wave C, potential trend shift.
❌ Close below $0.579 → Signals extended correction or potential new bearish trend.

 4️⃣ Why Wave 5 is Unlikely 
 A potential Wave 5 scenario would require: 

A break above $4.880 (prior resistance) to confirm a new bullish impulse.
Strong volume and momentum continuation beyond $5.551, $8.43, and $15.347.
📌 Low Probability Factors for Wave 5:

Lack of impulsive wave structure beyond Wave C extension.
Price structure still following corrective ABC movement.
No clear wave formation beyond the corrective phase.
🚨 Conclusion:
Wave 5 is not highly likely unless a breakout above $4.880 occurs, triggering further impulse movement.

 5️⃣ Conclusion & Trade Considerations 

✅ Primary Scenario (Wave C Completion)
Wave C Targets: $2.851, $4.049, $5.031, $6.144.
Support Zones: $0.614, $0.723, $0.579.
Reversal Confirmation: Break above $2.851 needed to validate end of correction.
❌ Low Probability Scenario (Wave 5)
Invalid unless $4.880 breaks with volume.
Target zones for Wave 5: $5.551, $8.43, $15.347.
Failure to break key levels = no wave 5.

 📌 Trade Strategy Considerations: 

Look for long entries near Wave C completion zones ($2.851 - $0.614).
Monitor volume & RSI for bullish divergence before confirming trades.
Avoid premature entries until clear reversal signs emerge.