BTCUSDT.4H
2025-01-26
Category: None

As we examine the 4-hour BTC/USDT chart, several critical elements come into play that shape our immediate and medium-term outlook.

Price Action and Key Levels:

The price is trading within a defined channel, constrained by an ascending support line (S1) and a strong resistance zone (R1).
The primary resistance (R1) is located at $110,392.21, a level tested multiple times but has yet to break convincingly.
On the downside, the nearest significant support level (S2) is seen at $88,452.27, coinciding with the green ascending trendline, which has provided a reliable base during recent corrections.
Chart Patterns and Scenarios:

A potential double-top formation is evident near R2, indicating a possible bearish reversal if buyers fail to regain momentum above R1.
On the bullish side, a breakout above R1 and a sustained close above $110,392.21 would likely target the next resistance zones around $115,000–$120,000.
Conversely, should the price fail to sustain its position above the green trendline (S1), we could see a deeper pullback toward S2, potentially extending into the $85,000–$90,000 range.
Indicators:

MACD (12, 26, close): The MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum as it approaches the zero line, hinting at potential bearish divergence.
RSI (14): RSI is hovering around the neutral zone at 53.20, indicating indecision. A drop below 50 would confirm bearish dominance, whereas a move above 60 could signal renewed buying pressure.
Trendlines and Volume:

The upward green trendline (S1) remains critical to the broader bullish narrative. As long as the price respects this line, the uptrend remains intact.
Volume has shown a declining pattern in recent sessions, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the current range-bound behavior.
Conclusion: The market is at a crossroads, with a clear bias yet to be established. For a bullish continuation, BTC needs to decisively break above R1 with increased volume and a daily close above $110,392.21. In contrast, a break below the ascending support (S1) would likely result in a retest of S2 around $88,452.27, potentially marking a deeper correction phase.

For traders, this presents two strategies:

Aggressive buyers could consider entries near S1 with tight stops below the trendline, targeting R1 and beyond.
Conservative traders might wait for either a confirmed breakout above R1 or a breakdown below S2 before positioning.
Given the technical setup, I am cautiously optimistic but remain vigilant for a potential bearish divergence. Risk management remains paramount as we navigate this pivotal phase.