My Last Post…
2025-01-14
Category: None

Hi friends,
Thank you so much for being with me all this time. I’ve been in trading for over 17 years and professionally managing assets, but my life isn’t limited to just that. I’m also involved in venture investing, business consulting, mentoring, and advising young teams.

The TradingView format doesn’t allow me to share all aspects of my activities with you, so I’ve decided to fully focus on developing my blog on Telegram. The link is in the description of this post. Please join!

As for the current state of the market, it’s heavily influenced by the behavior of the US stock market. Economic fundamentals and sharp statements from Trump are not adding confidence for investors.



While SPX is finding support at current levels and will likely see a technical rebound upward, in the longer term, a correction to 5600–5700 is highly probable.

A drop to these levels would be a bad signal for all bulls. It would break the local support preventing prices from falling further to 5100.



As you can see, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is entirely influenced by movements in the stock market.



The chart above outlines three long-term scenarios for Bitcoin:

1. Green arrows: A positive scenario suggesting growth to 135k after consolidation within a broad channel of 90–105. This scenario is possible if SPX holds its current positions and resumes its upward trend. Currently, I see no fundamental support for this scenario except for potential events like peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical easing between China-Taiwan and China-USA, or cryptocurrency deregulation in the US with legislative support.
This scenario seems the least likely to me, considering the overall trends of escalating tensions in key areas and deteriorating macro-level indicators.

2. Wide red channel: A second scenario reflects investor uncertainty and the freezing of all major macroeconomic trends at current levels, possible if SPX holds at 5600–5700 and enters consolidation.
I view this scenario as more probable.

3. Third scenario: Consolidation within the red channel until February-March, testing Bitcoin’s upper level near 105k. Then, positive expectations will give way under the pressure of negative news, leading to a continuation of the ongoing downtrend.
Currently, this scenario is my priority.

In my blog, I plan to release short morning market updates daily to stay in tune with market movements. Subscribe so you don’t miss anything.