BTC short should be secured @ profit for safe play
2025-02-02
Category: None

📊 1H Chart Analysis – Short-Term Trends
🔹 Price Action: BTC is currently trading around $98,780, approaching the bottom of the Linear Regression (LR) channel.
🔹 Indicators & Signals:

Short signals triggered earlier have played out, leading to a price drop.
No fresh long signals yet—this could indicate a lack of buyer interest.
Stochastic RSI is oversold, signaling potential exhaustion of the downtrend.
Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, suggesting that late sellers might get liquidated soon.
Volume: Selling pressure has been consistent, but volume is decreasing—a sign of possible exhaustion.
📌 Conclusion for 1H Chart
👉 Since we are near the bottom of the LR channel, entering new shorts right now is risky as late sellers could get wiped out. Instead, setting a trailing stop-loss at profit for open shorts is a safer play.

📊 1D Chart Analysis – Higher Timeframe Context
🔹 Price Action:

The short signal on the daily played out, causing a market drop.
Price is testing support levels—$100,465 (previous long entry) and $100,576 (previous key level) were breached.
Potential support at $96,977-$94,278 (SLL & lower LR channel).
🔹 Indicators & Signals:

Short signal played out well, but no new long signal yet.
Stochastic RSI is curling downward, meaning there's still room for further downside.
Bollinger Bands: The price is sitting on the mid-range, meaning volatility can still pick a side.
Volume: There was strong selling volume, but participation seems to be declining.
📌 Conclusion for 1D Chart
👉 Since price already moved down after the short signal, blindly entering new shorts here is dangerous.
👉 Best approach: If shorting, use SL at profit and be ready to adjust.
👉 No clear long signs yet, but that could change as liquidity drains and fewer market participants remain—possibly giving a high-RR opportunity for early longs.

🔮 Next Market Move Probability
Scenario	Probability	Explanation
📉 Further Drop (Testing $96,977)	65%	The momentum is still bearish, and no fresh long signals appeared yet.
📈 Short Squeeze Bounce	30%	Late shorts may get liquidated near $97,000-$95,000, causing a quick rebound.
🚀 Strong Reversal	5%	Not likely until a clear long setup appears.
📌 Strategic Plan
Shorts: ✅ Keep SL at profit. Do not open fresh shorts at bottom LR channel.
Longs: ❌ Not yet, but watch for liquidity sweeps below $97,000—could present an opportunity.
Neutral traders: 🚀 Wait for confirmation before entering either direction.
⚠️ Key Levels to Watch
Supports: 📉 $96,977, $94,278
Resistances: 📈 $100,576, $102,569, $105,404
Major Liquidation Level (SLL): ⚡ $96,977


👀 Final Takeaway
🔹 Market dropped after the BitcoinMF PRO daily short signal—it worked well.
🔹 Late sellers might get cleared soon, making fresh shorts dangerous.
🔹 Using a trailing SL for profit protection is the safest move.
🔹 No new long signals yet, but low participation could lead to a sneaky long opportunity soon.

Would I short here? No—too late. Would I long? Well, I’m not gonna lie... I might. But it’s dangerous to go against the indicator.

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