There seems to be a problem with XRP
2025-01-20
Category: None

My TA1 Wave 3 got invalidated with recent price action, I revised my elliot wave theory with 3 options above what do you think it is?

 TA 1: Invalidated Impulse Wave 
Initially, Wave 1 was completed with a high of $2.9043, retraced into Wave 2, and confirmed the beginning of Wave 3 when the price exceeded the high of Wave 1. However, Wave 3 retraced into the price level of Wave 1, which violates Elliott Wave rules for an impulse structure.

While some might argue "it was just a wick," strict Elliott Wave analysis considers this invalidated. As such, the wave count needs to be revisited.

 TA 2: Currently in Wave 5 
We may instead be in Wave 5, which would explain the recent movements. Using Fibonacci retracement tools, I’ve outlined the typical price zone where Wave 5 might conclude - we are in the Zone. Although it is uncommon for Wave 5 to retrace into Wave 4, it’s not impossible.

This scenario aligns with the broader market, as Bitcoin is in its fifth wave, and XRP could be following suit. If correct, the price target for XRP seems short of the expected $7–$10 range people are expecting.

 TA 3: Larger Wave 1 in Progress 
An alternative interpretation is that we’re in the process of forming a larger Wave 1, with the high at $3.4031 marking its completion. XRP could now be entering a corrective phase.

This scenario suggests a macro Elliott Wave cycle and implies a longer-term correction before future impulsive waves. While less likely in the short term, it remains plausible if XRP’s recent movements fail to align with a complete impulsive structure.