November, Scenarios 
2024-11-02

In the  October issue of  Scenarios , we introduced two bullish scenarios — “Triangle” and “Diagonal” — which differed in the depth of their corrective moves. Ultimately, the first scenario prevailed.

Today, we see a similar setup: two bullish scenarios once again, each varying in terms of potential correction depth. To the right, the October “Triangle” suggests that either the initial growth impulse has concluded, or — in a highly favorable case — an upward extension is developing. To the left is the scenario of a completed Diagonal, though a different type than in October, originating from the 52,550 mark. This scenario anticipates a deeper correction, potentially below 59K, before growth resumes.

Currently, several market factors could favor a corrective scenario.

The BTC Fear and Greed Index has dipped slightly to 75 points; however, this is still a high level, signaling the need for correction. Additionally, sell-offs have commenced in the U.S. market, as anticipated in our  “November Surprise” idea . Iran has vowed to strike Israel before the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, despite high approval ratings, Trump might face barriers to re-election, which could trigger an immediate price pullback.