Politics vs Profits | The US elections & Crypto 
2024-11-05

Harris, Trump, or Crypto ? Only One Goes Brrrr ! 

1/ The crypto market typically dips ahead of US elections

In 2016, there was a 10% dip, in 2020, a 6% decline, and so far in 2024, a 6% decrease. However, these drops aren't unusual; they can happen without clear triggers on any given day or week. So attributing extra significance to the current dip due to election is overblown it’s just business as usual in crypto

2/ The election results will trigger either a market boom or bust

Markets crave certainty over specific candidates. Once the election is over, investors can look ahead and allocate accordingly. In the grand scheme, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market don’t care who sits in the Oval Office. Whether it’s a red, blue, or mixed government, historically, crypto trends upward over time.

3/ Trump/Harris will be terrible for the economy

While Republicans and Democrats have vast differences (more so now than ever), unity isn’t our forte. How can we bring the nation together?  Maybe start with a common interest and go from there

One thing’s certain, both parties have an affinity for money printing , While it’s a headache for the US’s debt situation, it benefits crypto.Why? Because a share of that newly minted money typically flows into crypto assets, which have limited or predictable inflation. 

In essence, money printing devalues the US dollar but bolsters the value of scarce assets (like crypto) over time.Regardless of who wins, the money printer is expected to stay active.

While election may provide market clarity, it’s not a sure thing. Close elections can take days to finalize. So, if you feel like panicking, just remember this:

 Zoom out → stay calm → remember…In the long run, crypto tends to prevail.  

November is off to a roaring start with several significant market events – and that’s just in the first week! But before we look ahead, let’s review October to see where we stand:

1/ October Recap 

Expectations were high for ‘Moontober,’ and it delivered (though gains were modest).

October saw:

- $ BTC up 11%, with the broader crypto market up 10%
- US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 5.83 times more  CRYPTOCAP:BTC  than was mined in October.

This demand and limited supply helped push the total crypto market cap out of an 8 month descending trend, signaling a potential reversal.

2/ Macro Outlook 

Now, on to November. This week features two major macro events:

- US Elections – Tuesday, Nov 5th
- Rate Cuts – Thursday, Nov 7th
Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut. Though smaller than September’s 0.50% cut, it could ease market pressure.Lower borrowing costs reduce debt servicing expenses, freeing up cash for spending and potentially boosting both the economy and crypto markets.

 The bonus? Historically, Bitcoin’s average return in November is +43%
If this trend holds, we could see  CRYPTOCAP:BTC  hit $100k by month’s end! 

Cross your fingers, toes, and eyes!

3/ Token Unlocks 

October had $5.4B worth of token unlocks, creating potential sell pressure. Thankfully, November’s unlocks are lighter at $2.6B, which may limit that pressure.

4/ Earnings Reports 

This week brings earnings from:

- Franklin Templeton (managers of the  AMEX:EZBC  Bitcoin ETF)
- Arm (semiconductor architecture designers)
- Qualcomm (wireless tech products)
- Sony (self-explanatory)

But November 20th is the main event, with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) – the AI powerhouse – reporting earnings.That’s November in a nutshell. 


We’ll be here daily with updates as events unfold

