Making Sense of BTC
2025-01-12
Category: None

Hopefully this is an easy to understand prediction of whats really going on -

We have a H+S with the neck more or less around our current support at 91-92k.

Market has been very dissonant and so formation of the left shoulder, the tops, all seem funny looking but as you can see the overall price action averages out to the lines drawn.

The cup is even more of an approximation than the H+S, but if you try to fit it well the end of the cup usually always ends around 102-104k.

Right now we are riding up the right shoulder and the top which I haven't spent too much time trying to figure out could maybe be anywhere from 97.7k to a little over 99k.

The net money flow from now until the tip of the shoulder might really determine if the price will break low enough below the neckline to take us below 91k.

If you don't want to see under 91K, I might suggest to avoid buying above 96k under all circumstances, unless it can break 102 with enough momentum to probably break 104k as well. Probably unlikely in the next few days.

On the way down from the right shoulder if the price makes a strong rebound around the 93kish level with strong volume and also holds for at least a couple days it could be a bullish signal that the 91k support is moving up. Below 92k again would make me pretty bearish.

If our runup right now doesnt take us back above 96k and instead stops and reverses from 96k, this setup is most likely invalidated and reversal at 96 might mean sideways consolidation between 91-98k for a while longer or perhaps something much more bearish. If you've contemplated such a scenario please do leave a comment or link below.




