BITCOIN ,WAR & HALVING ⚠️
2024-04-19

🆘 From Wen Halving to Wen War!

First of all zoom out, bitcoin at prices seen 4 weeks ago and 6 weeks ago. plus half a dozen > -30% dips are typical for a bull run. we're at -12% from ATH a few days before halving, with a never before seen second ATH pre halving and ETF tail wind gathering.

as this earlier cycle shows this bull run volatility is normal, if anything this pre halving run up has been lower volatility than prior cycles bull runs. 

The Bitcoin halving occurs every four years and is a critical mechanism which controls Bitcoin’s scarcity and ensures its status as a disinflationary asset. As we approach this event, traders and investors, especially those employing momentum or long-only trading strategies, will find it helpful to its historical price impacts and place this data in the context of the current market dynamics. 

Understanding these elements will be key to navigating the post-halving market landscape effectively, especially when timing potential entry and exit points.past Bitcoin halvings have consistently led to substantial price increases in the subsequent 12 months, a trend that is crucial for investors to consider:


1️⃣After the first halving, Bitcoin's price surged by over 1000%
2️⃣The second halving saw a 200% increase
3️⃣Following the third halving, the price ascended by more than 600%

These significant upswings highlight the event's potential to drastically affect supply-demand dynamics and consequently, market pricing. As we approach the fourth halving, these historical patterns offer valuable insights for forecasting potential market movements and preparing investment strategies accordingly.

In comparison to past halvings, the landscape of Bitcoin's market dynamics has matured significantly, potentially reducing the direct impact of new Bitcoin issuance on market prices. This change is primarily driven by increasing institutional demand and the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs. 

Daily miner Bitcoin issuance now competes with substantial absorption by Bitcoin ETFs. For instance, while miners add approximately 900 BTC to the market daily, Bitcoin ETFs frequently purchase far more, significantly influencing supply levels and market liquidity.

ETFs may impact market volatility by generating large-scale inflows and outflows. These movements can greatly influence price stability and market sentiment, often independently of traditional supply-demand constraints.

In short, ETF inflows and outflows are already exerting a notable impact on the availability and demand for Bitcoin and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Given these factors, ETFs are key players in the market whose activities could overshadow the historical impact of the halving. For traders, this means ETF trends may provide key data points for making informed decisions in a landscape that may no longer behave predictably post-halving.
Conclusions

With the fourth Bitcoin halving fast approaching, the digital asset market will be impacted by a mixture of established cyclical events and evolving investment behaviours. Historically, halvings have led to major market rallies by cutting the supply of new Bitcoins, thus potentially increasing prices due to higher demand. However, this time, the dynamics are further complicated by heavy institutional involvement through ETFs and notable shifts in the activities of long-term investors and 'smart money' entities.

These factors collectively suggest a more nuanced market response to the upcoming halving:
ETF Activities: It's essential to monitor ETF inflows and outflows carefully. A decrease in ETF purchases could signal an impending market downturn.

Market Dynamics: Increased selling by long-term holders might indicate a nearing market peak, impacting overall market stability and price levels.

Halving Psychology: Be wary of potential sell-the-news effects surrounding the halving event. Traders should consider strategic adjustments to their positions to navigate expected volatility.

By maintaining a close watch on these key factors, traders can better position themselves to respond to market shifts and capitalize on new opportunities as they arise. 

🚀 Wen WW3 ? 

While Russia stands with IRAN, US President Biden just told Israeli prime minister  Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the US will oppose any Israeli counterattack against IRAN. US will not participate in any offensive operations against IRAN and will not support such operations

Also today there's been no airstrike in Isfahan or other parts of IRAN, It was only a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters, and they were all shot down so funds are safu!
look at google map for a second..Done? so don't even think about it

🌖 Wen Moon?

If you check other market and SPX you will see Stonk is over bought and need small correction which will effect risky asset classes like crypto too. the biggest opportunity in this bull cycle is alts and hidden gems


