Key Points: Intraday BTC Price Movement 
2025-01-24
Category: None

Context:
Options Expiry: $7.8 billion in Bitcoin options expire on January 31, with a significant portion out of the money.
Max Pain Price: Key options price level is $98,000.
Institutional Influence: Positive developments like rescission of SAB 121 (allowing banks to custody Bitcoin) could boost sentiment.
Implied Volatility: High (DVOL ~60), indicating potential for significant price swings.
Scenarios:

1. Bullish Scenario
Catalyst: Institutional buying or positive announcements.
Price Movement: Breakout above $106,850 with potential to test $110,000.
Supporting Factors:
Strong futures/options participation (open interest).
Positive spot netflows (accumulation).
Overbought technical indicators (RSI > 70).
Confidence Level: Medium (60%).
Resistance at $110,000 requires strong momentum.

2. Bearish Scenario
Catalyst: Market gravitation toward the max pain level ($98,000).
Price Movement: Rejection at $105,000-$106,000, retracing to $100,000-$98,000.
Supporting Factors:
Historical tendency for prices to move toward max pain before options expiry.
Increased selling pressure in spot netflows.
Neutral/negative funding rates (bearish leveraged sentiment).
Confidence Level: High (75%).
Options expiry dynamics favor the max pain theory.

3. Neutral Scenario
Catalyst: Absence of significant market-moving news.
Price Movement: Consolidation between $104,000-$106,000.
Supporting Factors:
Lower volatility as expiry approaches.
Balanced long/short positioning (neutral funding rates).
Confidence Level: Medium-High (70%).

Key Indicators to Monitor:
Netflow Data:
Increased spot inflows → Bearish.
Increased spot outflows → Bullish.
Funding Rates:
Negative → Bearish.
Positive → Bullish.
Volume & Open Interest:
High activity near key levels confirms breakout or breakdown.
News Impact:
Institutional or macroeconomic announcements can override technicals.
Trading Strategies:
Bullish Setup:

Entry: Above $106,000.
Stop-loss: $105,000.
Targets: $108,000 and $110,000.
Bearish Setup:

Entry: Below $104,000.
Stop-loss: $105,500.
Targets: $100,000 and $98,000.
Neutral Setup:

Focus on range trading between $104,000-$106,000.
This structured thesis accounts for options expiry dynamics, technical factors, and market sentiment.