06/01/25 Weekly outlook
2025-01-06
Category: None

Last weeks high: $98,987.05
Last weeks low: $91,544.67
Midpoint: $95,265.86

2024 is over, 2025 has begun...

Bitcoin ending the year at its highest point since its creation after an impressive rally mainly at both ends of the year with a cool off in the middle. 

Now that 2025 has started Bitcoin is looking to break $100,000 once more and begin what many believe to be the final year of the bullmarket. With the holidays now over and year open window dressing now done I would expect volume to return to the markets. Last week we saw a steady climb from the $92,000, whipsaw PA at year end and then a move up to just under $100,000. All that on very low volume which does make me a little worried, similar to weekend moves it's hard to know if they are true moves or just the result of a thin orderblock, this week will answer that question. 

Some important data releases for this week include:

Tuesday - Euro CPI
Wednesday - US ADP Nonfarm employment, FOMC minutes
Thursday - CNY CPI & PPI, US Jobless claims
Friday - US Unemployment rate

As we get closer to president Trumps inauguration and the shift in the US from an anti crypto approach to a pro crypto approach, this week should be in preparation for that and could be reactive to news of Trumps administration choices and updates on the "Strategic bitcoin reserve" etc. These reactions could be positive or negative so getting a read on the market in the opening few days maybe wise. 

The chart shows and early break above weekly high, this opens up the opportunity for a SFP if the weekly high is lost, if that is the case a drawdown towards Midpoint is on the cads, however if the weekly high is held as support a move towards $100,000 once again is the bullish target. Increased volume would cement either move as the weekly bias. 

Good luck to all this year!

