Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis
2024-11-09

📈  Technical analysis BTC/USDT 

The Bitcoin price has reached a new all-time high (ATH) following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. This price movement has fully validated the scenario outlined in our previous analysis. Now we expect a correction of the latest growth wave in the near future. Key targets for this correction could initially be the dynamic support levels at EMA 50 and EMA 200. The first 1H Imbalance zone is near EMA 50, where gaps on the horizontal volume levels need to be filled through trading consolidations. If sellers manage to push through the 70,000 support level, where the EMA 200 line also lies, we anticipate the start of a full correction of the November growth. In this scenario, the price may drop to the next 4H Imbalance zone, situated between the 0.61 and 0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, where corrections typically conclude and a reversal occurs.
For BTC to continue its upward trend, it needs to surpass the 77,000 level, which would open the path for a test of the significant resistance block at 80,000.

  


📉  Bitcoin market global analysis 

On the daily logarithmic chart, it’s crucial for Bitcoin’s price to hold above the 70,000 level with a weekly close to support continued growth. Otherwise, BTC may face a correction. This is further indicated by the beginning of a divergence on the RSI indicator, which has been in the extreme overbought zone for an extended period.

What are Bitcoin’s long-term growth targets?
Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. To determine growth targets, we’ll rely on trend lines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in order books, and, of course, indicators.

According to the MVRV Deviation Pricing Bands indicator, the next target for Bitcoin is 85,000, where the first Fibonacci extension level of 1.23 is also located. In the 90,000 - 100,000 range lies a global trend line constructed from the peaks of Bitcoin’s previous two cycles, aligning with the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trend line, situated between the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci levels, could be tested starting from the 100,000 level.

  


💠  Analysis of liquidity zones and levels 

The Fear and Greed Index is in the Greed Zone - 75.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has grown to $2,531 billion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index has increased to 59.73.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 77,000 and 80,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 70,000
🔴 Supply zone: 80,000 - 90,000

Levels for long positions:
70,000 - psychological support level
65,000 - large support block
60,000 - large support block

Levels for short positions:
77,000 - large resistance block
80,000 - largest resistance block
90,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance

  


📊  Fundamental analysis 

Bitcoin-Based Spot ETFs Set a New Record. On November 7th, Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs reached a new milestone, attracting $1.38 billion in a single day—the largest daily inflow since their launch in January. This record-breaking inflow was fueled by Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, as many investors believe his re-election will positively impact the crypto industry. Another factor driving Bitcoin’s growth was the recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points during its latest meeting.

What Changes Are Expected in the Crypto Community After Donald Trump's Victory:

- Bitcoin could become one of the strategic reserve assets of the U.S.;
- Token classification systems may change, with most cryptocurrencies likely to be considered commodities rather than securities;
- Crypto investors might enter the market more actively;
- Banks could gain more freedom to provide services to crypto startups and interact openly with the crypto industry;
- Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Solana (SOL).


🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:

➤ 11/13, 4:30 PM - US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October.

➤ 11/14, 11:00 PM - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.

➤ 11/27, 4:30 PM - GDP data (q/q) (Q3).

➤ 12/18, 9:00 PM - New Fed interest rate decision.

➤ 01/29/2025, 9:00 PM - New Fed interest rate decision.


📈  Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: 

 In October 2024, the Bitcoin price continued to recover its positions, thanks to positive expectations from the US elections and further reduction in the key interest rate of the Fed. 
Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎
Total price movement by all signals: + 41.89%
Maximum price movement: + 13.77%
Average price movement: + 7.58%

  


In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:

  
