ETHUSDT.1D
2025-01-11
Category: None

Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a corrective phase, trading below the resistance trendline (R1). The broader trend suggests a period of consolidation following a failed attempt to breach the upper horizontal resistance (R2) at $4,066.49.

The long-term structure remains bullish as the price has been consistently printing higher lows. However, the recent breakdown below the diagonal trendline (R1) signifies short-term bearish momentum.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 1 (R1): $4,066.49, a critical level that has repeatedly acted as a barrier to further upside.
Support 1 (S1): $2,998.25, which aligns with a key consolidation zone, currently serving as a floor for the recent retracement.
Support 2 (S2): $2,208.24, a significant historical level, marking the base of a previous rally. This will act as a critical support if bearish momentum intensifies.
Technical Indicators
MACD (12,26,Close):

The MACD is in the negative zone, reflecting the ongoing bearish sentiment.
The histogram is flattening, suggesting that the bearish momentum is losing steam, which could indicate a potential reversal in the near term.
RSI (14,Close):

The RSI is at 46.81, indicating neutral conditions but leaning toward the oversold region. A bounce from this level could provide the fuel for a bullish rebound.
A move above the 50 level would signify the restoration of buying strength.
Price Action & Patterns
The price recently broke below the diagonal resistance trendline (R1), signaling bearish pressure. However, ETH is holding above S1 ($2,998.25), which is a strong support zone. This level has historically acted as a springboard for bullish movements.

A potential double bottom pattern is forming near S1, which, if confirmed with a breakout above R1, could propel ETH toward R2 ($4,066.49) and beyond.

Projection & Scenario Analysis
Bullish Scenario:

A successful bounce from S1 and a breakout above R1 could lead ETH to retest R2 ($4,066.49).
If R2 is broken, ETH could rally toward new highs, with the next target near $4,500.
Bearish Scenario:

If ETH fails to hold S1, the price could test the critical support at S2 ($2,208.24).
A breakdown below S2 would invalidate the bullish structure and likely lead to a prolonged bearish trend.
Conclusion
In my analysis, ETH is at a critical inflection point. While the broader trend remains bullish, the short-term bearish momentum is evident. The key levels to watch are S1 ($2,998.25) for support and R1 ($4,066.49) for resistance. A breakout above R1 would confirm the resumption of the bullish trend, while a breakdown below S1 would shift the outlook bearish.

For now, I remain cautiously optimistic, expecting a potential rebound from S1, contingent upon improving market conditions and bullish confirmations from key indicators.