BTCUSDT.4H
2025-01-11
Category: None

Looking at the broader market structure, BTC is trading within a well-defined ascending channel. The support (S1) and resistance (R2) lines of this channel have acted as reliable boundaries for price movement since late September.

Currently, we observe the following:

The support trendline (S1) is well-respected, indicating a continuation of the uptrend over the past few months.
On the upside, the resistance trendline (R2) has capped multiple rallies, suggesting sellers maintain control near the upper boundary.
Support & Resistance Levels
Key horizontal levels are evident:

Resistance 1 (R1): Around $104,220.96. This level previously acted as a rejection zone during the recent rally.
Support 2 (S2): Near $88,750, a critical level where buyers stepped in during the retracement.
The recent pullback bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, aligning with the S2 level, signaling strong buying interest.

Technical Indicators
MACD (12,26,Close):

The histogram shows a bearish momentum, but it's beginning to contract, indicating potential weakening of selling pressure.
The MACD and signal lines are positioned in negative territory but appear close to a crossover, hinting at a potential bullish reversal.
RSI (14,Close):

RSI is currently around 39.54, suggesting slightly oversold conditions. However, it hasn’t reached extreme levels, indicating room for recovery.
A decisive bounce above the neutral 50 zone could reinforce bullish sentiment.
Chart Patterns & Projections
A potential retest of Resistance 1 (R1) at $104,220 is likely if BTC manages to maintain its upward trajectory within the ascending channel. The price action shows a bullish breakout attempt above the $100,000 psychological level, which will likely act as a key pivot point.

Conclusion
In my analysis, BTC is poised for a rebound in the short term, contingent upon its ability to sustain above the S2 level and hold within the ascending channel. A break above R1 would likely pave the way for further upside, targeting the next resistance near $108,353. Conversely, a breakdown below S2 and the ascending channel could shift the trend bearish, with a potential retest of the $85,000 zone.

In summary, I am cautiously optimistic about BTC’s trajectory as it consolidates within this bullish structure. Confirmation of reversal signals, particularly from MACD and RSI, will provide more confidence in the upcoming move.