Bitcoin technical analysis + trade plan by BF
2024-10-10

Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) by Blaž Fabjan

 Overview of Current Market Structure: 
Descending Trading Channel: The Bitcoin price is currently trading within a descending channel, marked by parallel lines of resistance and support. The price has respected both boundaries and continues to oscillate between them.

Support: The current support level within the descending channel is approximately 60,000 USDT, as shown by the lower green line.

Resistance: The resistance level is around 61,758 USDT, as indicated by the upper green line.
Potential Breakout: A potential breakout to the upside is indicated by the analysis. If the price breaks through the resistance zone, we may see a rally towards the 64,591 USDT mark, which is a key resistance level in the broader time frame.

 Indicators Analysis: 
RSI (Relative Strength Index, 14 periods): The RSI is currently around 39.25, which indicates that the market is in a slightly oversold condition. This suggests a potential buying opportunity if momentum shifts to the upside.

Stochastic Oscillator (14, 3, 1): The stochastic oscillator shows a value of 27.09, signaling that the market is near the oversold region. A bullish crossover between the %K and %D lines could trigger an upward move.

VMC Cipher B Indicator (Divergences): The VMC Cipher B Divergences are currently showing bearish momentum, but the price appears to be bouncing off a significant support level. We are awaiting confirmation for a reversal.

HMA Histogram (40, 44): The HMA Histogram shows a value of 91.97 in the short term, indicating that bearish momentum is starting to slow, and a potential bullish reversal could occur soon.

 Key Levels to Watch: 

Immediate Support: The key support level lies around 60,000 USDT. If the price drops below this level, further bearish movement towards 58,000 USDT could be expected.

Immediate Resistance: Resistance stands at 61,758 USDT, the upper boundary of the descending channel. A breakout above this level could trigger a bullish rally.

Key Target Level: The next major target on a breakout would be the 64,591 USDT resistance, where the price is likely to face significant selling pressure.

 Trading Plan: 

Bullish Scenario:
Entry Point: Look for a breakout above the 61,758 USDT resistance level. Confirm the breakout with increasing volume and price closing above the channel.

First Target: 64,591 USDT, which is a major resistance zone in the upper range.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss slightly below the support level of 60,000 USDT to manage downside risk.

Second Target (Aggressive): If bullish momentum continues, a potential extension towards 65,500 USDT is possible, aligning with previous highs.

Bearish Scenario:
Entry Point: If the price fails to break above the 61,758 USDT resistance level and starts rejecting at this point, consider a short position with a breakdown below the 60,000 USDT support.

First Target: A drop towards 58,000 USDT could be expected if bearish momentum accelerates.
Stop Loss: Set the stop loss above 62,000 USDT, just outside the resistance of the descending channel to account for volatility.

Neutral Scenario (Sideways Trading):
If the price consolidates between 60,000 and 61,758 USDT, wait for a clearer breakout or breakdown before entering any trades. The current channel suggests potential opportunities, but patience for confirmation is key.

Risk Management:
Position Size: Use proper risk management by not risking more than 1-2% of your capital on any trade.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Maintain a favorable risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 or higher to ensure the profitability of your trades.

