BTC/USDT: Key Support Levels and Strategy for a Volatile Week
2025-01-28
Category: None

Support and Resistance Levels 

 Support Levels 
	1.	99,000 USDT
	•	Aligned with the daily 50-day moving average, serving as a key pivot zone.
	•	Clusters of buy orders observed around the 98–99k range.
	2.	97,000 USDT
	•	Corresponds to the daily Auto AVWAP (low).
	•	Potential pullback zone if 99k is breached on a daily close.
	3.	93,000–91,000 USDT
	•	Potential lower limit for the “C” wave (Elliott) in case of a stronger market drop.

 Resistance Levels 
	1.	105,000–106,000 USDT
	•	Auto AVWAP high across multiple timeframes (daily, 12H).
	•	Significant clusters of short positions to be liquidated in the 105–107k range.
	2.	108,000–110,000 USDT
	•	Recently tested upper zone and local top.
	3.	Above 110,000 USDT
	•	A breakout above this level would signal strong continuation towards new local highs.

 Recommendations & Potential Strategy 

 1. Wait for Bottom Confirmation 
	•	As long as 99k holds on a daily close, the current movement appears to be a pullback. A breakdown below 99k could open the door to 93–91k.
	•	On the 4-hour chart, watch for bullish RSI divergence (price forms a new low while RSI doesn’t) as a potential swing entry signal.

 2. Risk Management This Week 
	•	Wednesday: FOMC decision  followed by the press conference
	•	Thursday & Friday: Quarterly earnings for Apple, Microsoft, etc., likely increasing volatility.
	•	Combined with ETF flows and speculative interest in AI developments, market moves could accelerate in either direction.

 3. Main Scenario (Underlying Bullish Trend, Short/Mid-Term Correction) 
	•	The MTFTI indicator shows an “Up” signal on the 4H timeframe, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.
	•	Daily ISPD Div Pro approaches the 0.90–0.97 zone, suggesting potential market overheating and the need for consolidation.

 Strategy 
	•	Consider progressive buying (“buy the dip”) in the 99k–97k range, with a stop-loss below 91–93k to avoid exposure to further breakdowns.
	•	Initial take-profit targets could be set in the 105–107k zone (short liquidation zone), with potential extensions above 110k if the breakout is sustained.
	•	Monitor intraday volatility (2H/4H charts) to refine entries, such as spotting a short-term descending channel or RSI divergence.

 General Conclusion 

The overall mid-to-long-term outlook remains bullish for BTC, supported by institutional buying, MicroStrategy’s acquisitions, and significant progress in spot ETFs. However, short-term indicators (e.g., ISPD Div Pro, RSI, and overbought daily metrics) suggest a phase of consolidation or a final “sell-off” revisiting 99k or 97k before the next rally.

For swing traders, the optimal window seems to be in the 4H–12H timeframes, focusing on potential dips to 99–97k. A quick recovery above 103–105k could open opportunities to target the 107–110k range. Conversely, a break below 99k on a daily close would warrant patience for a potential test of 93–91k.

 Summary  :
	•	Primary trend: Still bullish.
	•	Current phase: Caution during ongoing correction.
	•	Key events: High volatility expected this week (FOMC and Big Tech earnings).
	•	Major supports: 99k, 97k, and 93–91k.
	•	Major resistances: 105–106k, 108–110k.
	•	Strategy: Use technical indicators across timeframes to align with the broader bullish outlook while remaining alert to short-term volatility.