$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?
2024-12-19
Category: None

The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis:  

- **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump.  
- **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while.  
- **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom.  

Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.**  
- We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable.  
- **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater.  

To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over.  
- The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure.  
- Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD.  

If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve.  

Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀