BTC MARKET ANALYSIS (4H(TF)) | Bitcoin Update 
2025-02-04
Category: None

BTC Analysis (4-Hour Timeframe)

As you can see on the chart, I’ve marked three key zones for BTC:

 Strong Resistance  – The current market structure’s upper boundary.

 Central Zone  – A critical area acting as a pivot point.

 Strong Support  – The lower boundary of the current structure.

Since breaking out of the 70-80 zone, BTC has established a new structure, which is clearly visible on the chart. Over the past few days, BTC has been circulating within this zone. Today, it tested the support level and showed a healthy reversal, which is a positive sign. This zone has historically acted as a strong support area, and the market has repeatedly reversed from here, as seen in the price action between 91,260 and 89,260.

For now, BTC is respecting this support level and following the current structure. A breakdown below this zone could lead to a bearish move, but as of now, the support is holding strong.

 Central Zone:  The Key Pivot Area
The Central Zone is a crucial part of the current structure, acting as both support and resistance (SR/Rs interchange). It provides valuable insights into BTC’s price action, indicating when the price is likely to test resistance or support.

Currently, BTC has faced minor rejection from the Central Zone. However, given the strong bounce from the support level, there’s a possibility that BTC could break through the Central Zone. If this happens, the price may move toward the resistance level again.

 Supply and Demand Dynamics 
From a supply and demand perspective, BTC is currently showing strong demand near the support level. This demand could push the price toward the resistance level. However, for this upward move to sustain, BTC needs to break the downtrend choch (swing high) between resistance and support. This break is likely to occur if the Central Zone is breached.

If the Central Zone breaks, the demand could fully play out, and BTC may retest the resistance level.

 Needed Volume:  A Critical Factor
At the bottom of the chart, I’ve marked the “needed volume” level. This is an important area that cannot be ignored. For the needed volume to fill, the market might retrace lower.

If the Central Zone breaks, the needed volume will likely fill after testing the resistance. However, if the Central Zone holds and rejects the price, BTC could retrace to fill the needed volume level. In this scenario, the market might also break the current structure, targeting the 89,000–91,000 zone.

 Summary : Two Possible Scenarios

Bullish Scenario: The Central Zone breaks, and BTC moves toward the resistance level.

Bearish Scenario: The Central Zone rejects the price, and BTC retraces to fill the needed volume level.

These are the two primary scenarios to watch for. The market is currently straightforward, and no additional complexities are at play.

Note: My goal is to simplify the chart and help you understand the price action clearly. I avoid overloading the chart with unnecessary indicators or creating confusion. My analysis focuses on keeping the chart clean and straightforward.

Thank you!