BTC/USDT: Testing $106K Resistance – Breakout or Pullback?
2025-01-31
Category: None

Key Takeaways and Comprehensive Analysis 

	1.	 Bullish Momentum 
	•	The overall trend remains upward, with a potential target between $109k and $110k.
	•	BTC is currently testing critical resistance near $105k–$106k, which aligns with key levels on multiple indicators and price dynamics.

	2.	 Short-term Correction Risk 
	•	On shorter timeframes (2H/4H), RSI is approaching overbought levels, and ISPD indicators show signs of high satisfaction among investors.
	•	A pullback to $100k–$101k (support from Auto AVWAP and EMA21) remains possible before the next leg higher.

	3.	 No Imminent Supply Shock 
	•	While exchange balances appear to be dropping, this is mainly due to significant BTC migrating to ETF custody wallets.
	•	The combined BTC supply in exchanges and ETFs has remained stable at around 3 million coins, suggesting no immediate scarcity driving this rally.

	4.	 Upside Targets 
	•	Resistance:
	•	$105k–$106k (major pivot).
	•	$109k–$110k (next target, supported by structural analysis).
	•	$114k–$115k (possible extension if momentum accelerates).
	•	Support:
	•	$101k–$103k (EMA21 and intraday key support).
	•	$99k–$100k (psychological level and VWAP).

	5.	 Trading Scenarios 
	•	Scenario 1 – Pullback Buy:
	•	If BTC retraces to $100k–$101k, this could provide a strong entry point for traders aiming for the $109k–$110k target.
	•	Scenario 2 – Breakout Entry:
	•	A confirmed break above $106k (with a 4H or Daily close) would signal continuation, with targets at $109k and beyond.

	6.	 On-Chain Confirmation 
	•	Metrics show steady capital inflows, with the Realized Cap increasing by 2.1x from the previous cycle’s low.
	•	Long-term holders have distributed approximately 1.2 million BTC since December 2023, absorbed by new buyers at higher price levels.

	7.	 Final Perspective 
	•	BTC remains in a strong bullish phase. The key inflection point at $105k–$106k will determine whether the next leg higher is immediate or preceded by a short pullback.
	•	A breakout above $106k opens the door to $109k–$110k, with further upside possible if market momentum continues to build.
	•	Traders can watch for entries on dips or breakout confirmations, with the current macro and technical environment favoring long positions.