October, Scenarios
2024-10-01

In the previous update, we presented the Triangle scenario in wave  . It is shown on the left. This scenario is supported by the robust structure of the  Triple Three wave pattern  and the traditionally positive seasonality for Bitcoin in the October-December period. For instance, the average monthly growth of BTC in October is 19.6% (since August 2017).

Are there potential corrective alternatives? Perhaps the most promising one is the formation of a  Diagonal  from 49000. This is also a bullish scenario but requires much more time to develop and suggests significant fluctuations in the 50-68k range over the next two months.  The scenario will start to become relevant if the pullback from 66498 does not conclude at the current levels and evolves into a full-fledged correction.  Crossing 57493 would invalidate the Triangle scenario, switching us to the Diagonal.

The weak point of the Diagonal scenario is that the preceding segment is hard to decompose into quality waves. Meanwhile, market operators have a strong temptation to hit the "weak hands" of margin buyers, driven by FOMO and the expectation of an ATH.