BTC
2024-12-30
Category: None

BTC/USDT Technical Analysis: Potential Retracement Before Continuation

In the current technical setup, Bitcoin's price is forming a Bullish Flag pattern, which suggests a continuation of the upward trend after a temporary retracement. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the analysis:

Support Levels Within the Bull Flag

The lower boundary of the bull flag aligns with key support zones at 84K, 86K, and 87K USDT. A potential wick to 77K USDT is also possible, as this level corresponds to significant liquidity zones.
This retracement would remain consistent with the structure of the bull flag, allowing for further accumulation before a breakout.
Descending Channel Inside the Bull Flag

A smaller descending channel has formed within the bull flag, indicating a continuation of the temporary downtrend. This suggests that further downside is likely in the short term, paving the way for a stronger recovery.
The RSI also reflects this descending pattern, reinforcing the possibility of short-term bearish momentum. However, such patterns often precede a bullish breakout once the RSI approaches oversold levels.
Loss of Key Moving Averages

Bitcoin has lost 3 key moving averages: the 10, 21, and 55 MA, indicating short-term weakness.
The next critical support lies at the 89 MA, aligning with the 83K USDT price level. This support will play a vital role in determining whether the bullish structure remains intact.
On-Chain Data and Liquidity Levels

Based on Hyblock data from the 6-month period (4H time frame), significant liquidation levels are clustered across the price range from 88K to 74K USDT, with over $20-30 billion in liquidations at each price level.
These clusters suggest that Bitcoin may need to retrace further to clear the excess liquidity before any sustainable bullish momentum can resume.
Clearing these liquidation levels would create a healthier environment for a broader bull run.
Conclusion
The most likely scenario is a retracement to the 83K-87K USDT range, or even a wick to 77K USDT, followed by consolidation and a potential breakout. Keep an eye on the 89 MA for support and watch for a breakout from the descending RSI channel as confirmation of a trend reversal.

This analysis, supported by daily technical patterns and 6-month on-chain data, suggests caution in the short term but highlights opportunities for bullish continuation once the retracement and liquidity clearance are complete.