Monero - taking profit from a swing!
2024-11-07

Hello, traders!
This is my analysis on Monero (XMRUSDT).
Monero is a crypto that was first lunched in 2014 with the price of 163 and market cap of over 3B US dollars, I think it is a reliable crypto to trade on. Also the community is very active.

1️⃣ Analysis
The price has shown steady wing movements for last 5 months. Of course, this does not mean the swing would continue forever. However, with the right strategy and proper acknowledgement of the risks, I think we have some opportunities here. The price is currently inside the trend moving upwards toward the resistance line. 

2️⃣ Expectations
If the price is to keep its momentum and reach the resistance line (green line), we might see a reversal and starting downtrend. HOWEVER, we always want to enter after the confirmation. The resistance line will not hold forever. If we see any kind of sings of breakout near the line such as consolidation and volume spike, we will have to be careful. 

3️⃣ Key approach
Our first strategy is to enter short if we see the price touching the line and show reversal. However, we want to make sure the reversal happens even if that means lower profit. If we confirm the reversal, we may enter with final target price being 135.27.

4️⃣ Other approach
There's no other approach for this analysis. Some might think we could enter long now and take profit at the resistance line, but I disagree. Granted, the current movements look promising but we never know what happen. Trading on assumptions is very dangerous. You might say, 'Why enter long for Voxies, then?' That's a valid point but Voxies is different. The reversal was confirmed just yesterday meaning we still have time to enter. Monero, on the other hand, rebounded almost a month ago. 

5️⃣ Considerations
There are few things I want to point about. First, swing period for Monero is long. You might have to wait few months for the price to reach the target. Second, there's always a possibility of breakout. We are not to assume that the trend will continue. Look at the orange box in the chart. The price touched the line, dropped, touched again, dropped again, created a doji star, rose, then started a downtrend. This is very confusing pattern. We want to  make sure  we  confirm the reversal! Third, price might decline again before touching the line. This is why we do not want to enter now. 

💡 There is one other thing I want to mention in this post. Breakout trading is one of the most profitable strategy there is. It can earn you a lot of money in short period of time if you are right. However, it's very, very stressful and requires strong mentality. Profit is high but so are the risks because there are so many variables to consider. Breakout also requires proper reason: unless there's a totally justifiable reason to change the trend that has been continued for months (like this election for example), I think it's too dangerous to trade on breakouts. 
So I narrowed down my strategies - I am looking for (relatively) safe and reliable swing trades where price is moving inside the trend. This gives us less opportunities and requires a lot more patience, but is safer and will grant you big profit in long term. 
Monero is one good example. The crypto itself is trustworthy, the price is within the trend, both the resistance & support line are reliable. And we will only enter after confirming the reversal. 
I hope this analysis gave you some idea of deciding your own strategy and I hope you make some profit from Monero.

React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful.
Luke 1:78-79

