BTC/USD: Key S/R & Trend Timing
2025-01-29
Category: None

Which Time Horizon to Favor and Key Levels to Watch? 

1.  Best Timeframe to Use 
	•	For a swing trade (a few days to 1-2 weeks), the 4H or 12H seems the most coherent. The daily trend remains bullish, but short-term hesitation is visible (2H is somewhat contradictory, 1H is “down”).
	•	If the goal is to capture a potential rebound toward 108–110k, the 4H timeframe is a good compromise: it helps confirm whether the price stays above ~100–101k and breaks through the short-term moving average (~102.8k) without falling back below the daily Kijun (~99k).

2.  Key Support Levels 
	•	Zone 1: 101–102k (Auto AVWAP Low on 2H and 4H, plus short-term moving averages on 2H/4H).
	•	Zone 2: 98–99k (short-term moving average on the daily, daily Kijun).
	•	Zone 3: 97k (wick low + lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud).
	•	A clear break below 97k would invalidate the bullish ABC structure, potentially opening the way toward 95k or lower.

3.  Key Resistance Levels 
	•	105–106k: Auto AVWAP High on 4H/daily, key pivot zone.
	•	108–109k: A potential upside target, aligned with the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart and a former local top.

4.  Potential Strategy 
	•	Wait for a possible pullback/small downward channel on the 4H or 2H timeframe, with a clear rebound (RSI holding above 50) around 100–101k or 98–99k.
	•	Confirmation of a break above 103–105k would make a move toward 108–109k more likely.
	•	In case of a strong breakdown below 97k, step aside, as the correction could deepen further.

 General Conclusion 
	•	The overall trend (daily) remains bullish, supported by the MTFTI indicator (most timeframes in green) and sentiment indicators that are not yet in euphoric territory, despite some signs of elevated optimism on 12H.
	•	After a significant retracement that was bought up (support ~98–99k), momentum could resume as long as 97k holds and broader market factors remain stable.
	•	The best timeframe to time the trade: 4H (or 2H), to track a potential consolidation channel and a rebound off an intermediate support (101k or 99k).
	•	Supports: 101–102k / 98–99k / 97k as the last line of defense.
	•	Resistances: 105–106k (VWAP High), then 108–109k (upper Bollinger band on daily).

 Recommendation 
	•	Monitor price action around 100–101k. If a bull flag forms and price reclaims 103–105k with rising volume, a move toward 108–110k could be in play.
	•	However, a confirmed breakdown below 97k (on 4H/daily close) could trigger a deeper bearish extension.

 Final Takeaway 

Charts suggest that a local bottom may have formed around 97–99k, but a clear bullish structure (small downward channel followed by an upward breakout) and confirmation above ~105k will be needed for a stronger bullish signal. The 4H timeframe will be the most relevant for confirming this setup, in line with macroeconomic factors and crypto-friendly developments in the U.S.