BTC: 95k–100k Decision Point – Next Move in Play
2025-02-05
Category: None

Recommendations and Trading Outlook 

 Relevant Timeframe for Position Entry 
	•	Given the market hesitation, the 4H timeframe seems the most relevant to monitor for a reversal (or continuation) signal. The 2H timeframe may exhibit excessive volatility, while on the 1D timeframe, the signal may come too late.
	•	On the 4H timeframe, the ISPD Div Pro shows low “Investor Satisfaction” (~0.19), the Mason’s Satisfaction is crossing back above its SMA, and Koncorde indicates “Azul” accumulation. This could serve as an entry point if a technical rebound is confirmed (e.g., breaking out of a range around 98–99k).

 Key Levels 
	•	Support #1: ~95,000–96,000$ (Auto AVWAP Low 4H / confluence).
	•	Support #2 / Major Pivot: 89,000–90,000$. A break below would confirm a more extended corrective scenario.
	•	Resistances:
	•	99,000–100,000$ zone (short-term MA on 2H/4H).
	•	104,000–105,000$ (High AVWAP Daily).

 Short-Term Scenario 
	•	Bullish if the price moves back above 99–100k on 4H closes, with the short-term MTFTI turning green, targeting 104–105k.
	•	Neutral / cautious as long as price remains between 95k and 99k.
	•	Bearish if a clean break below 95k occurs, accelerating toward 90k. Below 89k, a more prolonged A–B–C corrective move (lasting several months) would become likely.

 General Conclusion 

 Fundamental Summary 
	•	The market is primarily awaiting developments on trade tensions (tariffs) and US employment data (NFP, unemployment).
	•	The announced US “sovereign fund” does not yet guarantee Bitcoin allocation.

 Technical Summary 
	•	The 2H/4H timeframes remain slightly bearish but are beginning to show signs of “end of correction” (low ISPD Div Pro, Koncorde divergences).
	•	The 12H/1D timeframes maintain an underlying bullish trend, but remain cautious (RSI below 50) and could flip bearish if 89k breaks.

 Additional Insights from Liquidations & ETF Flows 
	•	Liquidation Maps highlight two key areas:
	•	Below 95k: A concentration of Long liquidations that could amplify a drop.
	•	Above 100–102k: A large cluster of Shorts that could fuel a short squeeze.
	•	Recent ETF flows (table):
	•	Significant withdrawals on 02/03, followed by a rebound in purchases on 02/04.
	•	Major players (e.g., BlackRock) continue to accumulate, supporting the idea of underlying demand.

 Operational Strategy 
	•	Monitor the 4H timeframe to identify a local bottom around 95–96k. A close above 99–100k would confirm a bullish restart.
	•	Exit or reduce positions if a clean break below 95k occurs, as the probability of revisiting 90k (or lower) would increase significantly.
	•	Aggressive traders can attempt a defensive long near 95–96k (stop below 89k).
	•	More conservative traders should wait for 100k to be reclaimed before positioning for a safer bullish flow.

 Key Takeaway: Pivotal Zone Between 95k and 99–100k 
	•	Quick rebound scenario (short-term bounce) if macro conditions ease and US employment data comes in weaker than expected (a factor favoring rate cuts).
	•	Prolonged corrective scenario if geopolitical tensions escalate or US employment remains strong, delaying monetary policy pivot.

 Stay vigilant on macro releases and technical thresholds (95k / 89k / 100k / 105k). 
Happy trading!