Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W44/2024) // AlgoFyre
2024-10-30

The market is at a crucial point near the all-time high, with potential for both bullish and bearish outcomes. Key levels and possible scenarios are highlighted, with the US election as a significant upcoming event.

 🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 
  

🔸 W Structure Bullish Setup : It's October 30th, 2024. The market has formed a "W" structure, indicating strong bullish potential if it can break through the all-time high (ATH). However, as with previous highs, a rejection may occur, with either a minor pullback or a more significant corrective wave.

🔸 Corrective Phase Possibility : If there's an initial rejection, it may simply be a short pullback before another upward push. However, a more profound correction could also follow, pulling the price down significantly before the next bullish attempt.

🔸 Timing Around the US Election : The price action near the election remains critical. A bullish breakout scenario could involve stuttering around the ATH before a sharp move up. Alternatively, a quick retest of the 66,000-69,000 range may precede the next leg upward.

🔸 Bullish Impulse Continuation : If the monthly close appears bullish, expect a strong start to November, potentially with a fifth wave continuation. A possible small pullback could still happen first, but the general outlook leans bullish if these conditions hold.

🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR): 
 
 The market may stutter or slightly retrace near the ATH but is expected to continue up if it holds support. A monthly close above key levels could lead to a breakout, potentially resuming upward movement following a short correction.
 Price action could see some range-bound movement in the next week. Watch for either a quick push-up or a consolidation phase that sets up a bullish continuation post-election.
 

 🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 
  

🔸 Rejection at ATH Possible : At the ATH, the price might face rejection, signaling a possible correction. A large drop toward the 66,000 area could follow if the market fails to sustain above key support levels.

🔸 Bearish Flat Pattern Possibility : The price may attempt another push, then correct down, forming a flat pattern for a B-Wave before a larger decline. A bearish breakdown could target lower levels, specifically near 65,500 if momentum shifts.

🔸 Larger C-Wave Target to 52K Area : If the price rejects strongly, a larger C-wave down could lead to a deeper correction, potentially targeting around the 52,000 level if bearish momentum intensifies.

🔸 Longer-Term Downtrend Risk : With a potential major downtrend setting up for the next year, the market could see extended consolidation or a more substantial correction if the current highs don't hold.

🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): 
 
 A rejection at the ATH may lead to a range-bound correction or a larger move down if bearish pressure persists. The market is likely to stay cautious until after the election, with critical levels to watch around 66,000 and 52,000.
 

 🔶 Key Takeaway 
 The market is at a key resistance level, with both bullish and bearish outcomes possible near the ATH. A strong push upward is likely if bullish conditions hold, while a rejection could trigger a deeper correction, potentially aligning with the election timeline.