Arweave 5x in play (+ relative high risk/reward ratio)
2024-11-15


This side-by-side chart comparison was crafted to illustrate both the growth potential and risk profile differences between Bitcoin (BTC) and Arweave (AR) over the upcoming months, specifically targeting the period from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. By juxtaposing these two assets, I aimed to highlight how different growth factors and market dynamics play out in each case, despite both assets potentially participating in a broader bull market trend.


 AR/USDT Chart Analysis  KUCOIN:ARUSDT   

 1. Enhanced Growth Factor for AR: 5x 
Arweave (AR) exhibits a notable 5x growth factor compared to BTC. This factor reflects AR’s potential to outperform BTC, especially given its relative lower market cap and past explosive moves in bullish cycles.
By emphasizing this factor, I intend to highlight AR as a high-risk, high-reward asset, which could see substantial upside if BTC will further grow and consolidate.

 2. Decline Factor in Comparison  
AR also comes with a 2.3x decline factor compared to BTC, underscoring its higher volatility. In periods of short term corrections. .
This visual comparison to BTC’s -20% decline serves to remind that while AR may offer amplified gains, it also presents greater downside risks, a trade-off often observed in smaller-cap assets.

 3. AR Probable Upper Target by year end 2024-Q1/2025: $49.50 
Unlike BTC, AR has a more attainable high target, with $49.50 (a 201.28% increase) labeled as “More Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This optimism is reinforced by AR’s historical ability to rally sharply, especially in bullish conditions.
A green checkmark designates this target as a feasible goal within the forecasted timeframe, setting a visual contrast with BTC’s “Less Probable” 270K target.


 BTC/USDT considerations  BYBIT:BTCUSD.P 

 1. BTC Growth Expectations in before year end (2024): $100K 
The chart showcases BTC’s historical resilience and expected rally going into Q1 2024. Based on prior movements and momentum analysis, BTC is likely to achieve another 13% growth. This is marked by the first yellow arrow to signal a foundational level for BTC’s next leg up.

 2. BTC Less Probable Upper Target for Q1/2025: 270K 
I’ve marked an ambitious upper target of $270K (a 201.38% increase) as “Less Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This target acknowledges the potential for explosive growth but also emphasizes that reaching this level is less likely within the specified timeframe, given BTC’s recent trend and market constraints.
This speculative target is denoted with a red “X” to visually temper expectations around such extreme bullish scenarios.

 3. Short-term Decline Risks: 
As BTC approaches major resistance, there’s a historical correction risk in the near term, estimated at around -20% (from the recent top/ATH). This risk is flagged for potential volatility even as BTC progresses in its bull cycle.
This possible retracement emphasizes caution and suitable risk management.




 Comparative Takeaways 
Risk and Reward: The comparison visually drives home the point that BTC, as a more established asset, offers relatively stable growth but with a lower ceiling. In contrast, AR presents a far greater potential upside, albeit with significantly higher downside risk, making it a more volatile but rewarding choice.

Growth Trajectory and Market Psychology: The BTC chart highlights a cautious optimism for BTC to hit the 100K milestone, while AR’s more ambitious trajectory in the $49.50 range seems within reach due to its previous high volatility. This distinction suggests AR may outperform BTC in a bull cycle, yet demands a more speculative mindset from investors.

Visual Indicators for Probability: The use of checkmarks, crosses, and color-coded risk boxes was intentional to provide a quick reference on the probability and risk associated with each target. This approach aims to guide viewers in making informed decisions based on both historical data and projected scenarios.

 Side note:
If BTC reaches higher prices than projected in 2025 it is likely that altcoins and Arweave will increase prices even significantly higher than current targets presented.