CYCLE 4 ATH Mapping DETAILED - Price Levels & Time Frame Analysi
2024-11-12

As we now have confirmation of the election result and following our assumption this will lead to seasonal trends of a Santa rally for stocks and bonds as we close out the year, it is now worth mapping this scenario in more detail.

This post looks at CYCLE 4 and maps where this cycle All Time High (ATH) may reach and when, base on historic Indicator behavior / Price Action / Measured Moves / Fib Extensions & Historical Past Cycle Lengths. Assuming BTC continues similar cyclic behavior to prior cycles. 

Please explore the below post interactively (which captures all discussed items) to review measured periods and to understand where items have come from with reference to this post.



 Historical Cycle Lengths 
Measuring from the Bottom to the top of each past cycle recorded the approx. number of days
* Cycle 1 Bottom to ATH Top = ~ 742 Days
* Cycle 2 & 3 Bottom to ATH Top = ~ 1,064 Days (For both Cycles)
* Cycle 3 Bottom to 1st (Technical High - TH) Top  = ~ 854 Days

Plotting these on the chart (see blue dashed horizontal lines) it would be historically possible to see CYCLE 4 ATH land between December 2nd 2024 to March 24th 2025, and historically more likely between March 24th 2025 and October 20th 2024. It is noted the trend that cycles are increasing in length (particularly when measuring from ATH to ATH of previous and current cycles).

The suggest time frames currently look reasonable, considering our Cycle Pivot Indictor (CPI), risk indicator, other charts we like to review for ATHs and current projected trend line channels etc.

 Fib Extensions 
Following analysis looks at the Fib Extensions from prior cycle top to current cycle bottom to estimate current cycle top. Please review the embedded post above if you are unsure how these have been calculated.
* Cycle 2 ATH ($19,666) ~ reached just shy of golden pocket ratio of 2.618 ($20,382)
* Cycle 3 TH ($64,895) & ATH ($69,000) ~ reached just above of golden pocket ratio of 1.618 - 1.65 ($61,327 - $65,047 respectively). 

If BTC hits the 1.618 golden pocket ratio extension again in Cycle 4, this would result in an ATH of $157,362. Measured moves suggest reaching these levels are possible, however they are considered the more bullish view of market possibilities at this point in time. It is noted the entire sequence drop in fib ratios from Cycle 2 to Cycle 3. While repeating this again would not make sense for this cycle, if we continue to half the difference for Cycle 4 we fall in the region of the 1.272 ($95,835) and 1.414 ($117,467) fib ratio regions.

My current take on this analysis would be if BTC does exceed the 100K region, 117K may be a good target to look towards (just shy of the nice round number of 120K people could be targeting). If BTC struggles to make 100K then 95K might be the point where BTC has trouble....

 Indictors 
* RSI   - based on above, RSI on the weekly has just approached back into our uptrend region and heading into the overbought zone which it can stay for some time during the bull run period of the cycle. I would be looking to make sure BTC does not put in lower highs in the RSI as bearish divergences in this region in the past has formed in the making of Prior Cycles ATHs. Currently the RSI looks to have consolidated enough over the March - October 2024 period to make a decent run at finishing off the bull period in Cycle 4 (it has done what we wanted from an investor point of view). 

* Modified Osilator Wave Trend   - similar analysis to the RSI is observed with historic behavior in this indicator. Note historically this indicator can run in the overbought region for some time during bull runs and establishing ATHs

* MA OSCILLATOR Risk Profile Indicator - This indicator is at the right historically to suggest we are in the start of the exponential period of the bull run (after a pullback consolidation post the halving period). ATHs in cycles have been reached during 'Red Zone' price extension periods of my custom indicator. 

Hope the above makes sense. I intent to follow this up with some simpler analysis of other indicators.
