BTC/USDT: Between 94K and 100K, the Market Must Decide
2025-02-14
Category: None

Technical Context and Multi-Timeframe Trends 
	•	 Short-Term vs. Mid-Term Divergence 
Several indicators (MA, Ichimoku, RSI, etc.) highlight a divergence between short-term timeframes (1H to 4H, which are mostly “Down”) and longer-term timeframes (12H, 1D, and even Weekly, which are in an “Up” trend). The market is currently in a state of hesitation; shorter timeframes show exhaustion, while the broader trend remains bullish.
	•	 Key Support Zone: 94–95K USDT 
On intraday charts (2H–4H), this level emerges as a critical support, confirmed by AVWAP (loVWAP) and liquidation clusters. This is the key pivot zone for any short-term buying strategy. A confirmed breakdown (especially on 4H/1D close) could open the door to 92K or even 90K USDT.
	•	 Major Resistance: 98–100K USDT 
Several technical elements make this area difficult to break:
	•	Daily moving averages (e.g., MA 50, Ichimoku Kijun).
	•	Recent highs tested without a clear breakout.
	•	New selling blocks identified (indicating resistance from short sellers).
	•	 Longer-Term Perspective 
If BTC climbs above 98–99K and confirms on a daily close, the probability of an extended move toward 105–110K increases, given the identified liquidation clusters and open interest positioned higher. On the other hand, a rejection below 98K would prolong the consolidation, increasing the risk of a deeper retracement below 94K.

 Key Indicators Analysis 
	1.	 MTFTI (Multi-Timeframe Trend Indicator) 
	•	Short-term (1H, 2H, 4H): “Down” or “Neutral.”
	•	Medium and long-term (12H, 1D, 1W): “Up.”
	•	Overall average (AVG): “Neutral” (reflecting an undecided market).
	2.	 ISPD Div Pro 
	•	In 2H/4H, Investor Satisfaction (white line) is near 0.15–0.16, indicating a potential rebound zone.
	•	In daily charts, the value rises to ~0.60, signaling a more neutral-to-bearish stance.
	•	Interpretation: Buyers may attempt an entry on lower timeframes if support holds, but higher timeframes do not yet confirm an extreme oversold condition.
	3.	 HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index) 
	•	On 4H, the index is at 89, approaching a potential local overbought level.
	•	On 1D, it drops to around 30–35, closer to an oversold zone.
	•	This contradiction suggests that short-term markets may pull back, while the daily timeframe could still support a later bullish move.
	4.	 Koncorde Divergence  
	•	Asymmetrical readings across timeframes.
	•	On 4H, the “Azul” zone dominates (often linked to institutional buying).
	•	On 1D, “Verde” (red) is stronger, indicating profit-taking.
	•	The lack of agreement between timeframes reflects the current “all-or-nothing” sentiment in the market.
	5.	 Mason’s Line Indicator 
	•	2H/4H: Green Satisfaction > Blue SMA → potential bullish signal.
	•	8H/1D: Green line below its moving average → suggests a slowdown or consolidation.

 Trading Scenario & Risk Management 

 1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound): 
	•	If the price holds above  94–95K , a rally toward  98–100K  remains possible.
	•	A  confirmed daily close above 98–99K  would reinforce the case for an upward move toward  105–109K .

 2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): 
	•	A  4H/1D close below 94K  signals caution.
	•	A potential wick to  92K or even 90K  is possible due to the liquidation clusters.
	•	Below  89–90K , a deeper correction could unfold.

 3. Trade Management: 
	•	 Aggressive traders  may look for bounce signals at  94–95K  (RSI divergences, ISPD at 0.15, etc.).
	•	 Conservative traders  should wait for a  breakout above 98–99K  for a safer momentum-driven entry.

 Conclusion 

The BTC/USDT market is in a high-risk zone, with major support at  94–95K USDT  and strong resistance at  98–100K USDT . Technical indicators vary across timeframes, suggesting a possible short-term rebound, but without strong confirmation on daily timeframes. If support breaks, a drop to  92K–90K  could materialize. Conversely, if  98–99K  is reclaimed, BTC could extend gains toward  105–110K .

 Key Technical Levels to Watch: 
	•	Immediate Support:  94–95K 
	•	Lower Support:  92K  (potentially  90K )
	•	Resistances:  98–100K , then  105K+ 

Given the current market uncertainty,  a clear signal on the 4H/Daily timeframe  will be the key trigger for any decisive trading action.