$BTC MACD on weekly show a bearish trend. Read.
2025-02-05
Category: None

You can see on the chart that in May 2024 I issued a warning, and look at what happened over the next five months.

The same pattern is repeating now, and there’s a high probability we’ll see a similar result.

Back in May 2024, the usual crowd—MMCrypto, That Martini Guy, Ash, Crypto Rover, etc.—were all saying things like, “We’re going to 110k,” “To the moon,” or “A huge bullish breakout is coming.”

What did we actually get? Five months of consolidation and an -80% drop for most altcoins.

So consider this a warning. The MACD on the weekly chart is a reliable indicator of the trend. Exchanges aren’t going to go against the trend. Even if there’s a ton of liquidity at 107k, they won’t risk buying billions worth of Bitcoin just to get wrecked by the prevailing trend and be forced to sell at a lower price than they purchased.

Those pointing to the liquidity map at 107k are missing the point. Exchanges take the easier path. Going from 97k to 107k is plausible in an uptrend, but in a downtrend? No chance.

 What to Expect Now? 
Since this chart is on the weekly timeframe, there will be daily bounces. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains if you time the bottom and top correctly.

However, for holders, this is not a good time to hold.

 Is Invalidation Possible? 
Yes, but consider this: they’ve tried to break the trend five times and failed. The chance of a reversal now is about 1 in 9. It’s possible, but unlikely.

 Key Support Levels 
Support levels to watch are 95k, 91k, 85k, and 70k. While we might not drop as low as 70k, it’s better to be prepared.

 What’s Next? 
By May 2025, we’ll likely reach the end of this bearish trend, followed by a one-month altseason and a big BTC pump. However, starting in July 2025, we’re likely to face another five months of bearish consolidation.

The introduction of ETFs has shifted the crypto cycle into a new paradigm of five months of consolidation followed by one month of pumping.

As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).