BTC - weekend update
2024-09-21

We see price consolidating below previous 65k high while:
- price pumped on rate cuts narrative -> rates got cut
- saylor will buy x amount -> saylor already bought
- options on IBIT announced
- OI higher high, price lower high
--> bullish catalysts disappearing, positioning not great, price stalling, same story as we've seen before in this range

LTF PA is starting to look a bit toppy as well, so longing here seems out of the question for me. A pullback to 60-61k should hold if bulls want to keep momentum going.

The past few months we had a few easy setups like the bearish case here, every single one gave entry on Friday just before the weekend or Monday right after CME open on euphoria and similar conditions here. Your job this weekend is to watch positioning and see if a sweep on Monday is likely or not, or position as well as you can in this ltf range.

Positioning for upside here is probably on the late side and bad practice in general, but longing range lows has been rewarded all week. Like I said it's not something I'd do, but I can understand that some people might do it. As long as invalidation can be tight, it's not the worst plan as long as it keeps working