Doge Showing BUY signal While Using Easy Machine Learning Method
2024-12-27
Category: None


TL:DR
Currently Analyzing DOGE because one of my clients asked me to create a customized indicator and parameter set for him, and these are the results. Long story short, a backtest shows that the custom indicator and parameter set will yield 7000%+ profit compared to buying and holding DOGE which only resulted in 400%+ profits. According to that indicator, DOGE is currently in another buy state. Let me walk you through how I did it, the details and nuances, and next steps. Please let me know if you agree or disagree with me. I have a breakdown of the script and here is the link for it:
 www.tradingview.com 

Here is my general process for validating whether a script will be successful:

 1) Determine performance vs buy and hold 
In the world of technical analysis, you must have a benchmark to compare your results to. Depending on your goals, that benchmark can vary. For my goals, I believe it makes sense to compare indicators directly to the buy and hold scenario, but in some scenarios, it makes sense to use other metrics to compare your indicator against (I'll discuss this in a future post.)

When comparing your indicator to a buy and hold, I PREFER to use a  100% order size  and this is obviously UNREALISTIC because there aren't many traders who dump 100% of their equity into a single investment. However, because I am doing a comparison test, it is important to max out the indicator since we are comparing it directly to the buy and hold. Similarly, we don't add in any trade costs, which mean I am neglecting the commission, fees, and slippage, which again show this is unrealistic. Again, the reason I do this method is so that I can verify if the indicator is any good or not. A "good" indicator will have consistent results and beat the buy and hold over the course of a long duration with a large number of trades. a "bad" indicator will be inconsistent, which may refer to huge drawdown, or periods of time where it is unsuccessful/unprofitable. The difference between a 'good' indicator and a 'bad' indicator in this context is that a 'good' indicator will be able to absorb some of the trade costs (mentioned earlier) whereas the 'bad' indicator can't be fixed. Trade costs, especially commission and fees, are highly dependent on number of trades. So if a 'good' indicator performs well on a 1 minute chart against the buy and hold, but it starts to fail when trade costs are accounted for, then you can still adjust the indicator or timeframe so that you perform less trades, which will reduce the trade costs, but still maintain the profits. Again, a 'bad' indicator is dead in the water if it can't outperform buy and hold in the first place. 

In this example, we have DOGE performing at +400% profits. In the same time period, this strategy would have yielded 7000%+ profits in the same time period. Therefore, these results show that the customized parameter set and indicator work well, and should be considered as a 'good' indicator to use for DOGE. The next step is to add in trade costs, and modify the timeframe IF NECESSARY. Most likely, from my experience, a strategy that yields 7000%+ profits won't suffer significantly from trade costs, and will still be SIGNIFICANTLY better than the 400% DOGE buy and hold scenario, which ultimately leaves my client and I with what he requested: a solid and profitable strategy that he can use to alert him when to buy and when to sell DOGE. 


🔔If you'd like me to come up with a custom indicator and parameter set for whatever you trade, please send me a message and I'll work on it ASAP and make a post about it!

🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏

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