Bitcoin's Current Playbook
2025-02-16
Category: None

Bollinger Bands Squeeze:   
- Price is compressing near the basis ($97,100) with narrowing bands (volatility = 809 ATR).  
- A breakout above $98,331 or breakdown below $95,869 could trigger a strong directional move.  
 Momentum Indicators:   
- RSI (48.66): Neutral, but RSI-based MA (53.57) hints at slight bullish divergence forming.  
- MACD: Bearish crossover (MACD < Signal line), but histogram (-18) shows weakening downward momentum.  
 Volume & Trend Strength:   
- Low ADX (14.52) confirms weak trend – consolidation phase.  
- Volume is muted (391), typical before a volatility spike.  

 Scenarios to Watch:   

 🔵 Bull Case:   
- A 4H close above $98,331 (Upper BB) targets $100,000+, especially with rising volume.  
- MACD reversal + RSI breaking above 55 would confirm bullish momentum.  

 🔴 Bear Case:   
- Breakdown below $95,869 (Lower BB) opens path to $94,500 (Zoomed-in chart support) and possibly $92,100.  
- Watch for MACD histogram deepening into negative territory. 

 Strategic Takeaway:   

- Aggressive Traders: Scalp the range between $95,869 – $98,331.  
- Conservative Traders: Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume surge.  
- Risk Note: Always pair entries with stops (e.g., 1.5x ATR = ~1,200 points).  