BTC arriving at BIG resistance, early!  but....
2024-11-11

I am bearish BUT, with bullish optimism and a possibility of big a big bull, based on current market momentum. This is actually a great place and likely place for it to pull back based on its prior pattern, but this momentum could prove otherwise.  I am marking this neutral and no one wants to review neutral reviews they want to see bull or bear.  The thing is we are at a pivotal point that will make the case for either a prolonged bull or bear market. I am not sure if we will break out or break down but I have painted the picture of how we are at that point right now.  I will post again bull or bear once it seems to have committed to one or the other but otherwise just keep your eye on the trend lines.

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Here we are around $1000 less of $82.5k and we got here early.  We are likely to have resistance here but breaking this line would be really significant and likely signal a parabolic crypto market to come, massive.  The odds would put it at pulling back here as it has already twice in the past 4 years, and at minimum some resistance where it can consolidate potentially all the way up until late Dec before making a decision. It may still be December, but really the market feels like it might have enough fire to push through it real soon.
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Order books have actually been fairly range bound all year, we are at the high end but its nothing that screams some large increase in participation of day trading. Per CoinMarketFlow, global order books are around a -10% ratio on a 1d candle average at above 10% depth of market. This is actually ideal as it represents day traders with limit orders that expect the price to rise and less that expect it to fall. This is bullish ATM.

I have been seeing lots of alts breaking resistance and converting it to support, lots of chance for jumps. Right now seems like a day traders paradise with 25%-50% sometimes 100% runs in a single day, from lower liquidity, low circulation coins especially. Right now the fire of the market makes me think we may break the resistance and truly fly to the moon.  But the fact that order books have only grown by about 10%-15% or so over the last year, does make me question the durability of the run without more gas for the fire so to speak.

If BTC breaks that 82.5k and proves it as support, it is as bullish as it gets, like hyperbolic potential. On the other hand, if we resist here again, as usual, then it could be a lot of prolonged pullback with a potential absolute low between $30k-$40k probably - based on this chart you are looking at now and considering a pullback like it did the last two times.

So its more of a bearish layup that looks like it has the possibility to convert bullish.  I would caution to be vigilant at or near this line and let it choose first before taking any real action.

As usual DYOR but consider this trendline as one of your many things to watch to help you make more informed decisions. 

