Update post 500B collapse 
2025-02-03
Category: None

Such a night... 

The whole crypto cap drowing by half Trillion in less than 12H. 
With liquidation oreders of Billions and billions. 
was it predicatble ?
Yes. 

The good news about the last analysis is that BCT has respected and taken all the zone identified. 
The bad part, btc has the wrost timing ever. 
The first hypothesis : reaching 102K-109K by satisfying the last buyer target before starting the bullrun wasn't accurate. 

The volume led to a drawdown of -10% in the weekend.  

 good points :  
 100K  --> taken in the very short time

 99K  --> reached in a bounce after the prev. target. This was an high liquid point according to the liquidation heatmap. 4H upward trendline broken. 

Following the rational behind the prev analysis (linked below), the price should have positivly responded to this new 100K level, and pump the price back to 102-109K. 
Strong signals of a reversal were there !!!
The subsequent breakout of lowers and highs patterns, growing cup-shape (which btc is ver6y fan of, lately) and the strong bearish candlestick patterns coud suggest a wider selling trend. 
 
 97K  --> inefficency zone, the hammer created on Jan 27 at 8h00 (1H tf), highlights this zone which was suddently bronken by a threre solders patetrn. This kind of patter has reveled to be an indicator for the trend perstition.

 96K --> the second bearish target. Taken, high reaction (which is good strategy indicator) and strong breakout. From now on the downtrend was the trend. 

 92K --> third bearish target. Taken. 
From @96K, down by 7% in 4 hours 
Strong support. 

This big cup patten is typical of BTC in the last cycles. 

 what's now ? 
Volume will push back the price to the 102-109K or continuing the bearish phase till 86K? 

Pattern-wise, the decline could end here, reaching maximum 89K. 
Price-wise, the fast growth in november, could indicate the frist pump before teh bullish rally, and so the left-behind zone such as, 78K could remain unsatisfied. 
Anywasys, a pull-back to the area, 84-74K would keep an uptrand on a weelky and monthly basis. 

We must look at the fundamentals and whales' transactions, keep an eye on the book order and liquidation heatmap could help but  a volume analysis is fundamental in this period to forecast future bully or bearish rally. 

 Things to learn from this down: 
1) BTC creates cup patterns, and when it does, the moemntum is strong in both ways.

2) As we increase in price, we decrease in volatility. This is thank also to a bigger adoption than in previous cycles. 

3) The real bull run of halving cycle is not started yet. 




 

