BTC Not Looking Good
2025-01-09
Category: None

Team,

We have a blood diamond on the BTC 2 Day Chart. Typically when we get these on HTF, we should expect continuation of the downside movement for 4 - 6 bars. Which means next 7-10 days we will be dealing with a potential downward pressure. Be prepared. 

If we break the neck line of the potential H&S pattern that is forming, our target on the down side is early 80k. If we mirror the pattern we took to go up to 107k level to the down side as a measured move, as you can see on the chart our measured move take us down to SD 3 level of 76-77k. This will also fill the CME gap. 

What am I doing with my leveraged trading? I'm waiting in cash with limit orders for altcoins to take advantage of any significant moves to the down side.  I have set up chart set ups similar to this bitcoin chart.

On the BTC macro front, some important news just came out. And these usually lead us to major bottoms. 

Exact quoted news:
“According to DB, the US government has been granted permission to liquidate 69,000 Bitcoins (worth $6.5 billion) seized from Silk Road, an official confirmed to DB News today.
Notably, this comes less than two weeks after the new administration took office, which had promised not to sell the Bitcoins.
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) can sell 69,370 bitcoins seized from the Silk Road darknet marketplace, a federal judge ruled Dec. 30.
The DOJ cited bitcoin’s price volatility as a reason for pushing for permission to sell the assets."


DoJ is required to sell any cleared assets to cash, and transfer that cash to treasury once sold.
USMS (US Marshal Service) has certain financial reporting processes that restrict withdrawals from its exchange account near the end of each month.
This is why you usually see DOJ deposits to Coinbase prime earlier in the month.
On top of that, liquidations are supposed to occur within 5 business 
 days. So they’re supposed to do it quick after forfeiture, and 5 business days after notice to CB, but they’ve taken longer in the past. Point is window is closing quickly if it hasn’t already. That is, if they’re following their own rules.
