Bitcoin trend analysis and trading strategy
2025-02-09
Category: None

Currently, Bitcoin is close to 96K-97K, and the overall trend is still bullish, but there is pressure for adjustment in the short term. I think the trend of Bitcoin may continue to rise after a short correction next week, but we need to pay attention to several key factors:

1. Bullish reasons (the logic that Bitcoin may continue to rise)

1. The market is still in a bull market structure

• Bitcoin's upward trend since 2024 has not been broken, and it still has the potential to continue to hit 100K in the long run.

• The correction may be a normal correction in the market and will not change the overall upward trend.

2. Strong inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETF

• Institutional funds are still flowing in, especially the newly approved spot ETFs, which has pushed Bitcoin prices to remain strong.

• The incremental funds brought by ETFs are changing the market structure of Bitcoin, making Bitcoin a mainstream investment asset.

3. The expectation of halving is still strong

• After the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the effect of supply reduction may continue to ferment in 2025.
• Historical data shows that Bitcoin has the potential to rise sharply 12-18 months after each halving.

2. Bearish reasons (risk of short-term adjustment)

1. Short-term gains are too large, and there is a need for adjustment

• Bitcoin has accumulated a large increase from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2025, and the market needs a short-term adjustment to clean up floating chips.

• If it fails to break through 98K-100K, it may pull back to 92K-95K in the short term.

2. Market sentiment cools down, and some funds take profits

• Market sentiment has been overheated in the past few weeks. Once market sentiment falls, short-term traders may choose to cash out.

• If there is a pullback, the support area of ​​90K-92K may be tested.

3. Macroeconomic and Fed policy impact

• If the Fed postpones the rate cut or releases more hawkish signals, the market may be under pressure in the short term, leading to Bitcoin adjustments.

• Pay attention to the US dollar index (DXY) and US Treasury yields. If they rise, they may put short-term pressure on Bitcoin.

3. Trading strategy (how to deal with it?)

Short-term traders (swing trading)
• If Bitcoin pulls back to 92K-95K, consider going long in batches, with the stop loss set below 90K.
• If it breaks through 98K-100K, you can increase your position with the target of 105K-110K.
• If it falls below 90K, be cautious in the short term, and may test the lower support of 85K-88K.

Medium- and long-term investors (trend trading)
• Buy on dips. If Bitcoin falls to 90K-92K, it is a good long-term position.
• Target price: 120K and above. It is expected that the Bitcoin bull market will still have further upward space in 2025.
• Key support levels: 92K, 88K; key resistance levels: 100K, 110K.

4. Conclusion: The bull market remains unchanged, but there is a need for short-term adjustments
1. The long-term trend is still bullish, with a target of more than 100K.
2. There is a technical correction in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of 92K-95K.
3. Short-term traders should be cautious in chasing highs and wait for a correction before entering the market.

Summary: Short-term adjustments will not change the long-term bull market, and layout on dips is still the main theme.