NFC Championship preview: Commanders vs. Eagles breakdown, game prediction
2025-01-22
Category: sports

As the Commanders prepare to face the Eagles in Sunday's NFC Championship Game, here's a cool nugget of optimism for each team: The last four times there has been a divisional rematch in a conference title game, the winner has gone on to win the Super Bowl. The Rams beat the 49ers on the way to a title in 2021, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in 2013, the Packers beat the Bears in 2010, and the Steelers beat the Ravens in 2008. It doesn't matter how their regular-season meetings went — the Rams had been swept, the Steelers had swept, and the Seahawks and Packers had split their first two games, just as the Eagles and Commanders did this season. Those two games between Philadelphia and Washington were thrillers. In Week 11, the Eagles scored 20 straight points in the fourth quarter, including two Saquon Barkley touchdowns, in a 26-18 win. In Week 18, the Commanders trailed 27-14 in the fourth quarter before rookie QB Jayden Daniels threw three touchdown passes, the last with six seconds left, to rally Washington to a 36-33 win. With that, here's our deep dive into the last two NFC teams standing, their biggest strengths, question marks and X-factors: No. 2 seed: Philadelphia Eagles&nbsp; Biggest strength: You have to start with Barkley and the NFL's No. 2 rushing attack, which has averaged 227 yards per game in the playoffs so far. The eliminated Ravens actually averaged more, but the last team to average more in the playoffs before this season was the 1974 Steelers (231). Add in Jalen Hurts and the Eagles had 184 rushing yards just on touchdowns in their divisional win over the Rams. Philly's ground-and-pound strength goes up against a vulnerability for Washington, but then again, Detroit rushed for 201 yards on 23 carries last weekend and the Commanders still beat the Lions by 14 points.  Biggest question mark: The Eagles' passing game has been nearly nonexistent. They finished with 65 net passing yards on Sunday, the lowest in a playoff win in 14 years. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith combined for 35 yards on 11 targets, with a long of nine yards. If Washington's defense can limit the run, can Philadelphia take advantage through the air? Hurts barely played before suffering a concussion in the Eagles' Week 16 loss to the Commanders. In Philadelphia's Week 11 win over Washington, he threw for 221 yards. So recent evidence aside, it's possible that the Philly offense will have more balance than in the past two games. X-factor: Defensive lineman Jalen Carter is only 23, but his sack of Matthew Stafford in the final minute to seal the win over the Rams was a reminder of what a game-wrecker he can be. The Commanders will be without guard Sam Cosmi, who sustained a knee injury against the Lions, and that sets up a weak spot on the interior of Washington's offensive line, as backup Trent Scott started only one game this season. The Eagles' record for sacks by a player in a playoff game is two, and it's happened seven times, including three times in the past two weeks. No. 6 seed: Washington Commanders&nbsp; Biggest strength: It isn't even close: Rookie QB Jayden Daniels continues to improve and amaze in leading Washington to what is now a seven-game winning streak. Daniels' next touchdown pass will give him the NFL rookie record with five in a postseason. Yes, it's a low number, but it reminds you how rare it is to have a rookie leading a team to victory in January. The Eagles held Daniels in check as well as anyone in the first meeting — 191 passing yards, 18 rushing yards. In the second game, however, he had five touchdown passes and 81 rushing yards, a performance that was a clear foreshadowing of the promising postseason ahead.  [Related: What are the 10 best seasons by a rookie QB in NFL history?] Biggest question mark: Can the Washington defense keep the Eagles under 30 points? Detroit scored 31 against the Commanders despite five turnovers, piling up 521 yards of total offense. Washington is giving up 7.2 yards per play in the playoffs, the worst mark by any of the 14 playoff teams. Barkley alone averaged 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the two games against Washington, so the Commanders' challenge is to get to Hurts and contain his scrambling ability while also keeping Barkley from the game-changing long touchdown runs he's had all season. X-factor: Takeaways. Washington and Philadelphia are tied for the best turnover margin team in the playoffs — both are plus-6, forcing six turnovers and committing none. Whichever team can sustain that is probably headed to the Super Bowl. But if you look back at the regular season, the Eagles were plus-11, while the Commanders were plus-1, which points to Philadelphia having the edge overall. Daniels' ability to avoid mistakes while being a catalyst for the entire offense is sorely underappreciated in all the praise being correctly thrown his way. Prediction: You can't help but see a high-scoring game, and Daniels has been so dangerous in late-game situations. The divisional win over the Lions ended a run of five straight games that Washington won on the final play. With two potent offenses going head-to-head, this could come down to red-zone execution — the Commanders ranked sixth in the regular season there, while the Eagles ranked 13th. But on red-zone defense, Philadelphia ranked fifth and Washington 22nd. We'll take the Eagles to hold on for a home win to go to their second Super Bowl in three seasons. Eagles 38, Commanders 28 Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman. Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!