Nottingham Forest v Liverpool: Are Nuno Espirito Santo's side Premier League title contenders?
2025-01-07
Category: sports

When Nottingham Forest face Liverpool at the City Ground next week it will be a top-of-the-table match that barely anyone could have predicted back in August.Nuno Espirito Santo's side are six points behind the leaders after Monday's 3-0 win at Wolves and victory over the Reds - who they beat earlier in the season at Anfield - on Tuesday, 14 January will only increase title talk. From finishing 17th last season, amid off-field chaos and a four-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules, Nuno has transformed the side. Only now are questions about their title credentials being asked, testament to the calm waters at Forest and Nuno's ability to play down even the highest praise. Even if it was tongue in cheek, the manager quipped in his post match news conference at Molineux that he will not look at the table with Forest third, only behind Arsenal on goal difference. "I don't know, maybe the end of the season I'll take a look. I promise you guys I will," he smiled."We are trying to build something nice together. We have to enjoy the journey, nothing else matters. The table doesn't matter. We just keep on going."The Portuguese will not be able to deflect the attention or questions for much longer, though. Asked directly about the Liverpool game he pointed to the visit of Luton in the FA Cup third round on Saturday. "I'm sorry to not answer your question, but this is the reality. We must prepare well for that game," he said. "The FA Cup is important and it is a good chance for us in terms of the squad. We can give minutes to players, because it is a very long season and we need all the players to have minutes. They need to have fitness and rhythm. So first, Luton."Forest are the only team to beat Liverpool in the Premier League this season and should they do the double over Arne Slot's side, it will be more than just a statement of intent."If they beat Liverpool they are in the title race," said former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher on Sky Sports."What I would say right now is if the Champions League goes to the top five positions they have got one hell of a chance." 
What do the stats say?
Of the 70 teams to have 40 points or more from their first 20 games in a Premier League campaign, only four have failed to finish inside the top four at the end of the season. That was Blackburn in 1997-98 (sixth), Arsenal in 2016-17, Chelsea in 2017-18 and Leicester in 2019-20 (who all finished fifth).However, Opta's predictions model still gives Forest 0% chance of winning the title and only 0.7% of finishing second.Opta has Forest's highest probability to finish sixth (22.2%), with fifth (22%) close behind and seventh on 15.6%.Since 2000, the average points needed to win the Premier League has been 89.2; with 81.6 for second; 74.5 for third; 69.5 for fourth and 65.6 for fifth.In Leicester's title-winning season of 2015-16 they also had 40 points after 20 games and went on to win the league with 81 points, well clear of second-placed Arsenal's 71.
Champions League 'would be absolutely incredible'
Forest fans are now daring to dream about a return to Europe for the first time since the 1995-96 season, with Champions League qualification now a realistic possibility.They are five points above fifth-placed Newcastle, six ahead of Manchester City."It would be absolutely incredible," said midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White, who scored Forest's opener against his former club. "There will be a few fans who might be able to experience it twice. To be able to give them that opportunity again is what we really want to do as a club. "The owner believes in it, we believe in it. We just have to take it game by game and not get ahead of ourselves. Stay calm and stay humble."England boss Thomas Tuchel, who was at Molineux, will have been impressed by Forest's efficiency and the ruthless way they dispatched their hosts.Gibbs-White made his senior debut under interim boss Lee Carsley in September and will be a contender for a place in Tuchel's first squad, when England face Albania and Latvia in World Cup qualifiers in March.The midfielder said: "I didn't even know he was here. I'm just focused on club football. We will see what happens when March comes. But now I know [Tuchel was here] I've got a smile on my face."Gibbs-White's seventh-minute goal gave Forest a crucial platform as they improved their points tally to 40 from 20 games. 
Forest mark Clough's anniversary with victory 
Forest's win at Wolves - which also featured goals from Chris Wood and Taiwo Awoniyi and a terrific goalkeeping display by Matz Sels - came on the 50th anniversary of Brian Clough's appointment at the club. The legendary manager turned Forest from a second division side into English champions in three years and followed that with successive European Cup triumphs in 1979 and 1980. Nuno said: "It means a lot for us because Brian Clough is a legend of the club. You can see it all over Nottingham, in our stadium and in our training ground, references to Brian Clough. That can only inspire us."But we have to keep on going. Our happiness is based on how the players are working together; this is what makes us really proud and happy."It was only fitting Nuno recognised the anniversary. Two Forest managers who could not be more different in their personalities but, while he has a long way to go, Nuno could soon be talked about in a similar breath as Clough if he returns Forest to Europe's top table.