Champions League table: Points, permutations, who has qualified & how the knockouts work
2025-01-28
Category: sports

The Champions League's inaugural league phase is set for an exciting final day with 25 of the 36 teams still awaiting their fate.All 18 games will be played at the same time - at 20:00 GMT on Wednesday, with 16 matches having something on the line.Manchester City are in major danger of elimination after last week's 4-2 defeat at Paris St-Germain, while Liverpool are through, Arsenal are almost there and Aston Villa and Celtic - who meet - are somewhere in between.The 'as it stands' table will be constantly updating with teams' hopes potentially relying on other results.It marks the first season of the new format, a change from the old four-team groups with two going through from each - where sometimes there was nothing to play for by the end. "It's been brilliant, instead of the borefest we've had for years on the last matchday," wrote ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher on social media.
How to follow on the BBC
Highlights of all the games will be on the BBC Sport website for UK users from 22:00 GMT, with a Match of the Day: Champions League highlights show on BBC One and iPlayer from 22:40 GMT.From 19:00 GMT, there will also be build-up and live BBC Radio 5 live commentary on Manchester City v Club Brugge, with full Aston Villa v Celtic commentary on Radio 5 Sports Extra.You can also follow all the build-up, team news and match action via live text commentary on the BBC Sport website from 18:00. 
How many teams qualify for the knockout phase?
First, here's a reminder of what the 36 league-phase teams are aiming for.Those finishing in the top eight automatically progress to the last 16, where they will be seeded.They will await the winners of eight two-legged knockout play-off ties featuring the clubs ranked from ninth to 24th.Those finishing between ninth and 16th will be seeded and face a team placed 17th to 24th, with the advantage of playing the second leg at home.The clubs 25th or lower are eliminated and do not gain entry to the Europa League.The play-off ties take place in mid-February, with the last-16 matches in the first two weeks of March.
Which teams have qualified - and who is out?
Top-eight guaranteed: Liverpool, BarcelonaTop-24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, CelticUncertain of progression: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar DonetskEliminated: Bologna, Sparta Prague, Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
What do the British teams need to go through?
Manchester City have a very simple permutation. If they beat Club Brugge at home they will go into the play-off round. If they fail to win, they will be eliminated.They cannot reach the last 16 automatically.Aston Villa are guaranteed at least a play-off place. A win at home to Celtic would give them a good chance of finishing in the top eight, though they would need one of five teams above them to slip up. But even if they win, Villa could be overtaken by a big victory for any of the four sides currently below them on goal difference.Celtic are only one point behind Villa so could conceivably finish in the top eight, but they would need to win and for a lot of things to happen above them.Arsenal - away at Girona - are all but in the last 16 as they sit three points clear of the play-offs with a much better goal difference than any team on 13 points.Liverpool are one of two teams, along with Barcelona, who know they are in the last 16 already, and will be guaranteed a top-two place.Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are among the giants in the positions between ninth and 24th hoping for things to go their way to end up in the top eight.
Does it matter where you finish in top eight?
Definitely.Where a team finishes in the league table determines which opponents they face and when they can face them in the knockout stage. Take Liverpool, for example. The Reds are now guaranteed a top-two finish, which gives them a seeded route through to the last 16.That means the Reds will face a team who finished 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the last 16. The identity of the team will not be known until after the play-offs, but the pre-determined draw means it will be the winner of the ties involving teams that finish in those four places.Liverpool cannot face the team who finishes second in the league phase - or whoever finishes top if they are overtaken on the final matchday - until the final. By contrast, a team who finish seventh or eighth could face a side that had finished just below them in the league phase - in ninth or 10th. For more on who faces who in the play-offs, keep reading... 
What is the difference between finishing ninth and 24th?
Teams that finish between ninth and 16th will be seeded in the knockout phase play-off draw.It means they will face a team that finishes between 17th to 24th.Who the seeded teams will face will be determined by a draw but clubs will only have two possible opponents.For example, the teams who finish 11th and 12th are paired together and will play a team that finishes 21st or 22nd. Another bracket will pair the teams who finish ninth and 10th in the table, playing either the team that was 23rd or 24th. The two pairs of fixtures will be drawn into opposite halves of the overall draw and the seeded teams will play the second leg of the play-off at home as a reward for finishing higher than their opponent in the league phase. Unlike in previous years, teams eliminated from the Champions League - either in the group phase or via losing a play-off - will not drop into the Europa League. The draw for the play-off round is on Friday at 11:00 GMT. 
Who has the best chance of qualifying?
Opta has given its predictions for who will reach the play-offs and the last 16. It uses computer modelling software to look at form, opponents and potential seedings to come up with percentage chances. The table makes interesting reading. Celtic, for example, are regarded as 100% likely to finish in the play-offs - the Opta computer ruling they will not beat Aston Villa by the required goal difference to finish higher. Real Madrid are given a lower likelihood of finishing in the play-offs than Celtic - as Opta believes they could still force their way into the top eight.
Has this format worked?
One of Uefa's reasons for changing to this format was so "every game counts". It said the format "will ensure that any result has the potential to dramatically change a team's position, right up to and including the very last matchday".And so it has panned out with only two dead rubbers (Sturm Graz v Leipzig and Young Boys v Red Star Belgrade) and 16 games with something on the line.There are several games where both clubs are battling for the same goal, like Manchester City v Club Brugge, Stuttgart v PSG, Brest v Real Madrid and Inter Milan v Monaco.It could lead to enjoyable mayhem for fans with some teams potentially being affected by more than 10 other games. Aston Villa, for example, could overtake six teams or be overtaken by 15 teams (albeit not all 15) - including opponents Celtic.Uefa also wanted more matches between the top teams in the initial stages of the tournament.This year, Real Madrid have played Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool in repeats of three recent finals, Barcelona have taken on Bayern Munich, while Paris St-Germain have faced Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
What is financial impact of finishing where?
Failing to qualify for the next round means taking a financial hit.Every club in the league phase gets 18.62m euros (Â£15.6m) for participating, with performance bonuses of 2.1m euros (Â£1.8m) per win and 700,000 euros (Â£587,000) per draw.Each position in the table is worth 275,000 euros (Â£231,000) too. So the team that finishes 36th earns that much, 35th claims 550,000 euros (Â£461,000), and so on through to 9.9m euros (Â£8.3m) for the table-toppers.Teams finishing first to eighth also earn a 2m euro (Â£1.7m) bonus, with teams finishing ninth to 16th getting 1m euros (Â£840,000).The prize money for reaching each knockout round is shown below.Uefa has also introduced a "value pillar" that splits the broadcast revenue. This again increases depending on your finishing position in the league phase.That is before matchday revenue and other factors are taken into account.In other words, it is fairly costly to be eliminated early.