NFL Week 18 preview: Play-off pemutations, MVP watch, Mahomes and Barkley to miss out
2025-01-02
Category: sports

There is still plenty to be decided on the final weekend of the NFL regular season, including the final two play-off places, a couple of division titles and an all-important top seed.The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings do battle for the NFC's top spot in the big game of the weekend, while the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers fight it out for the NFC South. Lamar Jackson has a final MVP audition as well as trying to help the Baltimore Ravens win their division, and there are some intriguing selection issues facing some of the league's biggest stars.Throw in some crucial seeding positions and a thrilling three-way battle for the final AFC play-off spot and we have another cracker to look forward to.
Winner takes all for NFC top spot
Game 272, the final one of the regular season, could not be bigger as the winner takes top spot in the NFC, gets a first-round bye in the play-offs and home field advantage throughout.The loser finishes as the fifth seed and has to do it the hard way.The fact the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are divisional rivals brings the heat, the fact they are both 14-2 provides the quality. There has never been a regular-season game between two 14-win sides or 28 total wins in NFL history, and neither deserves to just be a wildcard team.What a way to bring the curtain down on the season.
Three-way AFC wildcard battle
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase have been sensational this season but the Cincinnati Bengals defence has just not been able to back them up, and they need to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday to have a slim chance of making the play-offs.The Denver Broncos have their destiny in their own hands and just need to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who will rest Patrick Mahomes and a host of starters, to clinch that final AFC wildcard spot.If the Broncos do slip up, the Miami Dolphins are next in line and will pinch that spot with a win at the lowly New York Jets. The Bengals can only go through if the Broncos and Dolphins both lose.A much simpler equation awaits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they will win the NFC South for a fourth consecutive year if they beat the New Orleans Saints - with the Atlanta Falcons needing them to slip up and also beat the Carolina Panthers to pip them.
Jackson's final MVP audition
Lamar Jackson will have his final MVP demonstration as he looks to seal the AFC North title for the Baltimore Ravens.Three wins in a row, including against Pittsburgh, have turned the tables on the Steelers, who have dropped three straight in a brutal Christmas schedule.With his MVP rivals likely to either sit out or only play briefly, apart from Joe Burrow, Jackson has the chance to take centre stage and press his claims to be named the league's best player for a second consecutive year and third time overall.More importantly, a win would guarantee the division and at least one home play-off game - which could end up being against Pittsburgh.
No record for Barkley - Mahomes and stars to sit out
It could have been a fairytale day for Saquon Barkley, who needs just 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson's coveted rushing record - and he could have done it against his former side the New York Giants who controversially let him go in the summer.The Philadelphia Eagles have their sights set on a Super Bowl though, so head coach Nick Sirianni said Barkley will "probably be somebody that rests" on Sunday.Barkley was keen to try to eclipse a record that has stood since 1984, but has accepted the decision, saying: "I've got bigger things in mind, and we get a chance to rest and get ready to roll for the play-offs."Mahomes, and possibly Travis Kelce and a host of other Chiefs stars will sit out, and with also a bye week after that they will have a break of more than three weeks between games. Whether that results in the well-rested Chiefs coming out swinging in the play-offs or some ring rust and lack of sharpness remains to be seen.Like Barkley, Josh Allen will not get much of a chance for a final MVP performance as the Buffalo Bills have confirmed they will only allow their star quarterback to continue his 114-game starting streak before pulling him out of the firing line early.
How do the NFL play-offs work?
There are 14 teams playing three rounds of play-off games to decide who contests the Super Bowl, seven each from the AFC and NFC containing four division winners in each and three wildcard teams.The two number-one seeds get a first-round bye while the other six teams play in the Super Wildcard round, with the second, third and fourth seeds playing at home against the seventh, sixth and fifth seeds respectively.Number-one seeds return for the Divisional Round, hosting the lowest remaining seed while the highest remaining seed hosts the fourth and final team.The Conference Championship games are the final hurdle with the highest remaining seed hosting the lowest side for a place in the Super Bowl.
NFL play-off standings and permutations
AFCKansas City Chiefs (15-1)Buffalo Bills (13-3)Baltimore Ravens (11-5)Houston Texans (9-7)Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)Denver Broncos (9-7)In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)Pittsburgh need to win and have Baltimore lose to swap places in the standings, while Denver need to win to secure their place. If the Broncos lose then Miami can pinch their place, and if they both lose then the Bengals will sneak in with a win.NFCDetroit Lions (14-2)Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)Los Angeles Rams (10-6)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)Minnesota Vikings (14-2)Washington Commanders (11-5)Green Bay Packers (11-5)In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)Whoever wins out of Detroit and Minnesota takes top spot, the loser finishes fifth, and Tampa Bay need a win to get in ahead of Atlanta, who need a win and Buccaneers defeat to get in.
NFL Week 18 schedule 
All times GMTSaturdayCleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (21:30)Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:00 Sunday)SundayCarolina Panthers @ Atlanta FalconsWashington Commanders @ Dallas CowboysChicago Bears @ Green Bay PackersHouston Texans @ Tennessee TitansJacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis ColtsBuffalo Bills @ New England PatriotsNew York Giants @ Philadelphia EaglesNew Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersKansas City Chiefs @ Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas RaidersSeattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles RamsMiami Dolphins @ New York JetsSan Francisco 49ers @ Arizona CardinalsMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions