Manchester United: Ruben Amorim senses danger, but is Premier League relegation battle really possible?
2024-12-31
Category: sports

Ruben Amorim's words were scarcely believable.The Portuguese head coach's side had just been beaten 2-0 by Newcastle United at Old Trafford, leaving the Red Devils in 14th place and seven points above the relegation zone.Asked by BBC Sport if the club were in a battle to avoid the drop, Amorim said: "I think that it is a possibility. We have to be clear with our fans."United were last relegated from the top flight 50 years ago, at the end of the 1973-74 season.The landscape in English football is vastly different now given the financial muscle of teams at the top.United are one of six Premier League teams never to have been relegated since the competition's launch in 1992, but how likely is it now that the club could drop into the Championship?Let's take a look at the data...
How bad is United's form? 
The defeat to Newcastle was Manchester United's third Premier League loss in a row and their fifth in the last six league matches.It has left the Red Devils in 14th position and seven points above Ipswich, who occupy the closest relegation slot to safety following their 2-0 win against Chelsea at Portman Road on Monday night.It is the lowest position United have been in at the turn of the year since 1989, when they were 15th on New Year's Eve. They finished that season in 13th position under Sir Alex Ferguson - and won the FA Cup.Since Amorim's appointment in November, United have collected just seven points from a possible 24, having won twice, drawn once and lost five times in eight Premier League matches.The numbers do not make happy reading for United fans.Manchester United lost six games in all competitions in December, only the third month in their history in which they have lost so many and the first since 1962.United conceded 18 goals in December, their most in a month since March 1964 (also 18).Since Amorim's first game in charge on November 24, only Southampton (7) have lost more games in all competitions among Premier League clubs than United.United have lost three consecutive home league games for the first time since February 1979, while they have lost three consecutive Premier League games within the same season for the first time since December 2015 under Louis van Gaal.
How many points are needed to avoid relegation?
It is not an exact science as every year is different, but since the Premier League shifted to a 38-game season in the 1995-96 campaign, an average of 35.6 points has been needed to avoid relegation.Teams finishing in 17th - and therefore one place above the relegation zone - have secured an average of 38 points to stay in the league during that time.For example, Nottingham Forest survived last season in 17th spot with a tally of 32 points, which put them six points clear of 18th-placed Luton Town.
United are on 22 points after 19 matches of this season - the halfway point - earning an average of 1.15 points per game.Should they replicate this form in the second half of the season, United would therefore finish on 44 points.However, United's form under Amorim has been worse than it was under predecessor Erik ten Hag.The former Sporting coach is averaging 0.88 points per game. Should the team continue at this rate for the remainder of the season, they would finish on about 39 points.West Ham were relegated in the 2002-03 season with 42 points, which is the highest tally recorded by a team to have finished in the bottom three of the Premier League in a 38-match season.
So how likely are United to be relegated? 
Not very - according to the data from analysts at Opta, who predict that it is highly unlikely that United will finish in the bottom three of the Premier League table.Opta's current projections - calculated using thousands of season simulations - give United a 0.1% chance of finishing 18th in the Premier League table, with a 0% chance of finishing in the bottom two.In fact, United are rated more likely to finish in fifth (1.3%) than they are to finish in the bottom three of the table.According to Opta, their most likely final position is 12th place (15.1%), followed by 13th (13.9%) and 11th (12.6%).Amorim's side are projected to finish with 50 points - far from what they are looking for, but also far removed from serious peril.