Liverpool or Arsenal? What the stats say about the Premier League title race
2025-02-17
Category: sports

The Premier League title race is heading towards the final straight - and this is when the nerves start to show.When Liverpool edged past Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 on Sunday, Anfield roared with relief as much as joy.The Reds did not manage an attempt on goal in the second half, but did just enough to ensure they remain seven points clear at the top of the table."Everyone gets nervous," accepted Liverpool full-back Andy Robertson after the Wolves win."The players get nervous, the crowd gets nervous - that's only natural. But another game down. This result is big."With 13 games remaining, how likely are Liverpool to be caught? And who has the toughest run-in?
Liverpool looking leggy or finding different ways to win?
Liverpool's performance against Wolves on Sunday was hardly one to set the pulses racing. They were good value for their two-goal lead at half time - thanks to a Luis Diaz finish and a Mohamed Salah penalty - but after the break it was struggling Wolves who were the better side.This was the first time on record (since 2003-04) that Liverpool failed to attempt a shot in the second half of a Premier League game at Anfield, according to Opta. In fact, it was the first time in this period that the Reds went an entire half of football without attempting a shot in a home league match.But Liverpool boss Arne Slot was happy to see his side show they are able to win in different ways."We had to show a different mentality, which we did and got it over the line," he told BBC Match of the Day."In a season like this we have played so many great games, but in a season if you want to win something you have to win the difficult ones as well when you are not playing your best. "If you want to achieve something it is not only about bringing the ball out from the back or Mo scoring goals, it is also about defending."Opta's supercomputer predicts Liverpool to win the Premier League pretty comfortably and has them to finish on 87 points, seven clear of Arsenal.The statisticians give them an 87.65% chance of winning the title, with the Gunners on 12.35%. Every other team has been given 0% chance of finishing first.
What are Liverpool's remaining fixtures?
Liverpool's recent form: WWWDWIt is a hectic few weeks for Liverpool, with the Reds having league games pretty much every three days until the end of the month.But things ease considerably in March, when the Reds play just one league game - a home fixture against bottom club Southampton.That's not to say it is a quiet month, however, with Liverpool having the small matter of the EFL Cup final against Newcastle on 16 March.On either 4 or 5 March, Liverpool will also have the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie, when they will travel to one of Paris St-Germain, Benfica, Monaco or Brest. The return leg at Anfield will take place a week later.Liverpool finish the season with a home game against Crystal Palace - by which point they would hope to have already had the title wrapped up.Liverpool's final 13 Premier League games:19 February: Aston Villa (A)23 February: Man City (A)26 February: Newcastle (H)8 March: Southampton (H)2 April: Everton (H)5 April: Fulham (A)12 April: West Ham (H)19 April: Leicester (A)26 April: Tottenham (H)3 May: Chelsea (A)10 May: Arsenal (H)18 May: Brighton (A)25 May: Crystal Palace (H)
What are Arsenal's remaining fixtures?
Arsenal's recent form: WDWWWArsenal are currently unbeaten in 15 league matches (W10 D5) - their longest run without defeat under Mikel Arteta.They have one fewer Premier League game than Liverpool in the rest of this month, but play one more than the Reds in March.Gunners fans will be hoping their side are still in the title race when they go to Anfield on 10 May because getting a result in that game would set them up for a home fixture against Newcastle and then an away trip to Southampton on the final day, by which point the Saints could be relegated.Arsenal's final 13 Premier League games:22 February: West Ham (H)26 February: Nottingham Forest (A)9 March: Man Utd (A)16 March: Chelsea (H)1 April: Fulham (H)5 April: Everton (A)12 April: Brentford (H)19 April: Ipswich (A)26 April: Crystal Palace (H)3 May: Bournemouth (H)10 May: Liverpool (A)18 May: Newcastle (H)25 May: Southampton (A)
Who has the easier run in?
Liverpool will have been relieved to get the three points against Wolves because they have two tough away games coming up - travelling to Aston Villa and then Manchester City.They also play rivals Arsenal towards the end of the season but have the advantage of hosting that encounter.Arsenal, meanwhile, face six sides in the top half of the table in their final 13 games.