Long-overdue Gaza ceasefire may stop the killing, but won't end the conflict
2025-01-16
Category: news

The ceasefire is a considerable achievement. It's long overdue. Versions of the deal have been on the table since May last year. Hamas and Israel have blamed each other for the delays.Israel's response to the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 that killed around 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, has left Gaza in ruins. Most of Gaza's population of well over two million has been displaced. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Israeli attacks have killed almost 50,000 people, both combatants and civilians. A recent study in the Lancet medical journal says that might be a major underestimate.The first big challenge is making sure the ceasefire holds. Senior Western diplomats fear that after the first phase of 42 days the war could resume.The Gaza war has had immense consequences across the Middle East. It did not, as many feared, lead to a general war in the region - the Biden administration has claimed credit for that - but it has led to geostrategic upheaval.
Hamas is still able to fight but it is a shadow of what it was. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence minister have been accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.After Hezbollah in Lebanon intervened in the war, it was, eventually crushed by an Israeli offensive. That was a factor that led to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran and Israel exchanged direct attacks - weakening Iran. Its network of allies and proxies that Tehran called the Axis of Resistance has been crippled. The Houthis in Yemen have halted much of the shipping between Europe and Asia that passes the Red Sea - it remains to be seen whether they will keep their pledge to stop attacks now there is a ceasefire in Gaza.As for the long conflict between Israel and the Palestinians - it is as bitter as it has ever been. The ceasefire might, with luck, stop the killing and get Israeli hostages, and Palestinian detainees and prisoners back to their families. It does not end a conflict that is more than a century old.