Trump team's confidence is sky-high but warning signs abound
2025-01-19
Category: news

Donald Trump loves a show and he likes to surprise people.And as he returns to the White House, the world is waiting to see if Trump 2.0 will really be a more disciplined and effective version of its previous, chaotic, incarnation.But even before he steps back into the Oval Office, the single biggest difference between now and the start of his first term eight years ago is just how bold he feels.Talking to people around Trump, the confidence is unmissable. He has the GOP in lockstep, the business community falling over themselves to donate money to his inauguration and an opposition that is exhausted and largely quiet.The election was actually quite close, but you wouldn't know it from Maga world. They feel vindicated and want to move fast to get things done, to hit back against the incoming president's enemies and to change America. They believe the country backs Trump's disdain of "woke" agendas, mainstream media and global elites.Here's what to know about Donald Trump's inaugurationWhat Trump might do on day one in the White HouseAnd the agenda reflects this. From the mass deportation of migrants and pardons for Capitol rioters, to punitive trade tariffs on America's neighbours and an end to birthright citizenship, there's a lot of fundamental change being promised and he could announce much of it on day one.The effect would be dizzying - and that is the point.
The team that Trump will be bringing into the White House reflects that brashness. Gone is the president who seemed in awe of hierarchies and establishment credentials.Take his picks for secretary of defence.In 2016 Donald Trump chose Jim Mattis to lead the Pentagon, almost fawning over the longtime general "who everyone loves".He hailed Mattis as "a man of character and integrity." (Two years later Mattis would quit amid very public differences of opinion and Trump would call him "the world's most overrated general." )Fast forward to 2024 and Trump has picked a very different defence secretary: Pete Hegseth is a TV host with a military background but no significant management experience, who seems to have survived his Senate confirmation hearings despite multiple accusations of sexual abuse and drunkenness.Trump isn't out to impress anyone this time, and the Republican Party seems to have no ability or interest in providing checks and balances on his instincts. Trump standing by Hegseth as scandal swirled was seemingly a test for Republican lawmakers. Would they dare to defy Trump? They didn't.So, for the moment there is unity - but look below the surface and there's less harmony, and with it the prospect of more chaos.Trump's cabinet is a team of people with surprisingly different views who may not always play well together.His pick to run health care, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, is a pro-choice former Democrat at a time when many Republican lawmakers want to restrict abortion access.Who has joined Trump's top team?The chosen ones - 10 people delivering Trump agendaThe nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, embodies old school Republican economic values and comes from Wall Street via a stint working for the liberal financier George Soros. But Trump's Vice-President - JD Vance - is a populist who says "we are done catering to Wall St." There is Elon Musk with his deregulation agenda serving alongside a Labor Secretary nominee who is pro-union and pro-worker safety regulations.Trump's pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio is in the conventional, hawkish Republican mode. He has called Vladimir Putin a "thug" and a "gangster." Meanwhile Trump's pick for director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who has been sympathetic to America's adversaries, including Russia and Syria's now-deposed leader Bashar al-Assad and was described to me by a Trump ally as a peace-nik, "the Jimmy Carter" of the group.
Allies of the incoming president argue this unconventional mix of views is what makes Trump different, and exciting. A former Trump adviser told me that the uniformity of opinions in previous Democratic administrations was like "a bunch of parrots." The whole point of Trump's second term, this adviser said, is to shake up a stultified system of government.Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin famously credited Abraham Lincoln for creating a cabinet that consisted of a team of his rivals. In Trump's case, this incoming administration feels more like a court than a Republic. The courtiers have their divergent views and disagreements with each other and they have to get as close as possible to the man in the center of it all for their agenda to win out. They know Trump's reputation for agreeing with the last person who has his ear and in the first term White House, officials vied to be that influential person. When that failed, they often leaked to the press in a bid to get their opinions heard.With so many competing opinions, there could be even more leaks this time, despite the best efforts of the new chief of staff, Susie Wiles.And so the key question for this administration is whether this surprisingly eclectic group will be able to hash things out and produce the best possible result. Or if the cabinet will be like a middle school brawl of eager students battling and obstructing each other in a bid to be teacher's pet with no clear principles to guide them.The lack of cohesion already on display has some analysts alarmed, particularly on national security. "There is no consensus in the new administration when it comes to how China is viewed,"  says Richard Haass, who worked in the Bush administration and is now president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. "One can anticipate ongoing struggles over American policy and more than a little inconsistency."For now, Trump's desires reign supreme. But the president knows that in two short years America will hold midterm Congressional elections and the conversation will shift fast to the future. The Republican train will leave the station, and President Trump will be left standing on the platform. He'll still have sway, and an awful lot of money that will give him some power over the succession, but the conversation will move on and the courtiers will be vying to become ruler themselves.