Sutton's FA Cup fourth-round predictions v indie band and Man City fans Doves
2025-02-07
Category: sports

League One side Leyton Orient are hoping to cause one of the biggest shocks in the FA Cup's illustrious history when they host defending Premier League champions Manchester City on Saturday.You can watch the tie live on BBC One and also listen to Chris Sutton's co-commentary from Gaughan Group Stadium on BBC Radio 5 Live - but is our predictions expert expecting an upset?"City boss Pep Guardiola always takes the FA Cup seriously," Sutton said. "He will have to this season, because it is the best chance they have got of winning a trophy."Sutton has made his predictions for all 16 fourth-round ties and given his verdict on who will make it into round five.For this week's matches he is up against two guests who definitely don't want to see an Orient win make the headlines - Jez and Andy Williams from indie band Doves, who are both City fans.Doves' new album, Constellations For the Lonely, is released on 28 February. Their latest single, Cold Dreaming, is out now and they tour the UK in February and March.Do you agree with their scores? You can choose who you think will win each tie, below.
Drummer Andy and guitarist Jez are both lifelong City fans - or, almost lifelong in the case of Jez - who admits he very briefly supported Manchester United."Andy went for City and, because we were twins, I went for the opposite because I wanted to be my own person," Jez told BBC Sport."It was when we were six or seven and I was like well, I am having Red if he is Blue! So, I went Red, but then I saw the light and switched to the correct side pretty quickly."Their first heroes were City legends Colin Bell and Mike Summerbee - who Andy once impressed with his penalty-taking prowess."Bell and Summerbee were a bit before our time as players, but they were still such big figures in Manchester," Andy explained."We went to Mike Summerbee's Soccer School once, and I won a penalty contest - it is the only football trophy I have ever won, and I have still got it in my studio, this plastic thing."Summerbee went in goal and I had this technique where I would zig-zag with my run-up and then just boot it. I think everyone was laughing at me so much that he just let them in."I thought I was being really clever, but I probably looked a bit of a plonker!"
The current City squad is full of superstars but, even during the club's less successful period in the 1990s, there were still players that got Andy and Jez off their seats."We went to watch them a lot then, to Maine Road, and I think our next hero was Georgi Kinkladze," Andy said. "And Paul Dickov and The Goat [Shaun Goater]," added Jez. "They were all brilliant."Obviously they were around in what I would call the dark days, but they were inspirational weren't they? When they shone, they really shone. Especially Kinkladze and his runs like the goals he scored against Leicester and West Ham in the FA Cup."You can watch Kinkladze's solo goal against the Hammers  from 1998 below. His goal in a replay against Leicester in 1996 saw him pick up the ball in his own half and accelerate past three players before firing into the bottom corner."I was there," Andy said. "They were such difficult days for City but when Kinkladze or Uwe Rosler did something special like that, the whole place would light up. We needed players like that to give us those moments. "There have been a few like them down the years - not just great players, but also City though and through."Chris Sutton, Jez Williams and Andy Williams were speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan.
FA Cup fourth-round predictions
There are no replays. Games will be decided by extra time and penalties.Gap = league places between the two teams
Friday, 7 February
Old Trafford, 20:00 GMT13th in Premier League v 18th in Premier LeagueGap = 5Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.What a story it is to see Ruud van Nistelrooy, who has won the FA Cup with Manchester United as a player, going back to Old Trafford with Leicester.He was in charge of United when they beat the Foxes there twice in the space of two weeks earlier in the season, but he will want a different outcome this time.Leicester are struggling at the moment but this still won't be straightforward for United. It's amazing how many surprise results there have been in the Premier League this season, but the one constant has been that United have been awful throughout.I have absolutely no confidence in this prediction but, based on how poor Leicester have been recently, and also their heavy defeat by Everton last time out, I think the holders will find a way of winning this tie in 90 minutes to make it into the draw for round five.Sutton's prediction: 2-1Jez: So, we can choose what we want to happen as well as what we think might happen? Good! Leicester to beat United, then - even if Leicester are having a terrible time at the moment.Andy: United are not having a good time either!Doves' prediction: 1-2
Saturday, 8 February
Elland Road, 12:15 GMT1st in Championship v 14th in ChampionshipGap = 13Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Sports ExtraThis is an awkward one to call because of Leeds' situation. They are five points clear at the top of the Championship after beating Coventry on Wednesday but four teams are going for the two automatic spots. Promotion is their priority, and I think their manager Daniel Farke will make quite a few changes here.I don't agree with that thinking, but I can kind of understand it. I'd love to see Leeds really have a go in the FA Cup but they play Watford in the Championship next Tuesday. Their schedule is relentless, and the financial rewards of going up - or the consequences of missing out - are huge.Farke is not the only former Norwich boss involved here - Alex Neil is a pretty shrewd manager who is on a good little run with Millwall and they have just won three games in a row to put themselves on the fringe of the play-off race.I had to think quite a lot about this one, but I am going to go with Millwall to cause an upset.They have already beaten Leeds this season, at The Den in November, and Leeds have only lost one of their 18 games since.But this prediction is based more on the kind of team I am expecting Leeds will put out, because I think Farke is more likely to put out a weakened team than Neil.Sutton's prediction: 1-2 after extra timeDoves' prediction: 1-2
Gaughan Group Stadium, 12:15 GMT6th in League One v 5th in Premier LeagueGap = 45Watch live on BBC One, the iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola will probably make some changes with his side's Champions League tie against Real Madrid coming up on Tuesday, but he won't just field a load of kids.Instead it will probably be Kevin de Bruyne and Jack Grealish who come into the side, so City are hardly going to be lacking experience.Leyton Orient have already been one of the stories of this season's FA Cup, thanks to  goalkeeper Josh Keeley, who went up for a stoppage-time corner in their second-round win over Oldham and scored a 99th-minute equaliser to force extra time, then Dan Agyei got their winner in the 121st minute.Orient went on to knock out Championship side Derby County on penalties in round three to earn this tie, but I feel a bit sorry for them because they won't be at full strength here.They had a good January in terms of making signings but lots of the new players won't be eligible here, and they have some injuries to contend with too.Saturday's loss at home to Stockport was their first defeat in 13 games and while they have been in excellent form, they have lost a bit of momentum.Their manager Richie Wellens is a boyhood Manchester United fan who started his career with the Reds and would love to get one over City, but I don't see it happening for him.City won't get as many as they did against Salford City in round three, but they are going through. Orient will get a goal, but that's all.Sutton's prediction: 1-3
Jez: We just did not realise how much of an influence Rodri was on the rest of the players until he got injured in September. His presence must have a psychological, calming, effect because everyone looked better and more confident when he was in the team. It's only in the past few weeks that we have started to look ourselves, apart from last weekend of course, when we got absolutely trounced. I think everyone is enjoying our wobble.Andy: Rodri is one of the best midfielders in the world, that's why we've missed him.Jez: My personal ambition for the season now is I want to finish in the top four and as long as we make that, I'd be happy. The Champions League you can forget - obviously I want us to win it, but you've got to be realistic. An FA Cup win would be nice, and that is definitely doable.Andy: Of course we can win it. We've got to beat Orient first, but that's what we've gone for. Pep always shows every team massive respect, and that's why complacency never comes into it for us in games like this. He will field a strong side.Jez: The beauty of the FA Cup is seeing the shocks. We'd all like it if United or Liverpool lost to a smaller club, but you just don't want the upset to be you!Doves' prediction: 0-4
Coventry Building Society Arena, 15:00 GMT11th in Championship v 19th in Premier LeagueGap = 12Ipswich are on a terrible run in the Premier League, with their worst result coming with their home defeat by Southampton on Saturday.Coventry have been doing much better under Frank Lampard in the Championship, winning four games in a row before they lost to leaders Leeds on Wednesday.On the face of it, this looks like a possible upset, especially if Ipswich rest players, but I actually think they will go strong.The Tractor Boys are a team who need a result to kick on after losing their past four matches.Kieran McKenna's side are have got games coming up against Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United and they need to win a game first to give themselves some confidence and try to find some rhythm again.Sutton's prediction: 0-1Doves' prediction: 2-1
Goodison Park, 15:00 GMT16th in Premier League v 7th in Premier LeagueGap = 9Live commentary on the BBC Sport website.I went with Bournemouth to beat Liverpool last weekend, and they gave it a really good go. The Cherries hit the woodwork twice and they were unlucky to lose in the end.I can see Everton making a few changes here, because they play Liverpool in the rearranged Merseyside derby on Wednesday.After three straight wins, Everton manager David Moyes will still want a good performance to keep the momentum going, but I am going to stick with my policy of backing Bournemouth.The Cherries have already beaten Everton twice this season - firstly with that incredible finish to their game in August, when they came back from being 2-0 down after 87 minutes to win 3-2, and then at the start of January when they won 1-0 in Sean Dyche's last game as Toffees boss.I would love Andoni Iraola to go strong in the FA Cup this season and go all out to win it - the possibility is there, even with their current injury problems.On that basis, I am going for them to get the better of Everton again, and make it a hat-trick of wins over them.Sutton's prediction: 0-2Doves' prediction: 2-1
Deepdale, 15:00 GMT15th in Championship v 2nd in League OneGap = 11I watched Preston lose against my old club Blackburn last week, and I was quite disappointed by what I saw.Basically they went 2-0 down and only then did they start to play, and have a go.True, there was a decision at the end where I can understand why Preston boss Paul Heckingbottom felt harshly done by to not get a penalty, because of the one Blackburn had been awarded earlier.So, I get why he was frustrated with the referee, but he must have been frustrated with his players as well because they had been on such a good run, and still have the possibility of the play-offs.This won't be easy for Preston, because Wycombe are flying at the top of League One and have the best away record in their division, but I still think home advantage will count for a lot.I'm told Wycombe are also the top scorers in League One, and that in fact only Liverpool and Leeds have scored more league goals than them in England's top four divisions this season, but my gut feeling was Preston will win this 1-0, and I am sticking with it.Sutton's prediction: 1-0Doves' prediction: 2-2 after extra time, Wycombe to win 16-15 on penalties
St Mary's Stadium, 15:00 GMT20th in Premier League v 2nd in ChampionshipGap = 2Burnley's defensive record is unbelievable, but they have got a problem at the other end of the pitch. They don't score many goals and it appears there is an element of Burnley fans who are quite bored watching Scott Parker's team.Their situation is the same as Leeds, in that they are one of four teams chasing one of the two automatic promotion spots in the Championship.Again, they have got a midweek league game coming up, at Hull City on Wednesday, which will be their priority. I think Parker will make changes here and they will fall foul of that.Southampton will not be complaining, because they have won so few games against anyone this season.Saints picked up a rare win at Ipswich last weekend, and at home they have managed only three victories in all competitions - Stoke in the Carabao Cup, Everton in the league and Swansea in the FA Cup third round.To say they have momentum after beating Ipswich is probably pushing it, and they are still a long way adrift at the bottom of the table, but a decent FA Cup run would give their fans a bit of escapism in what has been a miserable season.Sutton's prediction: 1-0Doves' prediction: 2-1
Bet365 Stadium, 15:00 GMT18th in Championship v 19th in ChampionshipGap = 1I really wish I could have been on Final Score last Saturday alongside my friend Jason Mohammad, who had a day to forget.Jason posted on X at the start of the show that there would be live updates from Leeds against his team - Cardiff - who ended up losing 7-0.Cardiff had been on a decent run of form until that defeat but I am afraid I have got more bad news for Jason because I think his side are going out of the FA Cup on Saturday.Stoke have turned the corner of late too, under my old Norwich team-mate Mark Robins, although both sides are only a few points above the Championship relegation zone.Robins had an amazing run to the FA Cup semi-finals - and almost the final - with Coventry last season, of course, but the scoreline I am going with is more a case of me wanting to rub Jason's nose in it, rather than based on science the way my predictions usually are.Sutton's prediction: 4-0Doves' prediction: 1-1 after extra time, Cardiff to win 2-1 on penalties
The Brick Community Stadium, 15:00 GMT16th in League One v 9th in Premier LeagueGap = 51Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.Wigan boss Shaun Maloney says he learned a lot about management from Fulham boss Marco Silva when he played under him at Hull City, but I am surprised he has not said the same about me.Shaun had an outstanding playing career, and he has a lot to thank me for about that - I helped him a lot when he was a youngster at Celtic, both technically and psychologically.Being serious, fair play to him for the job he has done at Wigan because he has had a lot to contend with there. He also had a tough time in charge of Hibs, where he was wrongly sacked and was not given long enough.So, I have a lot of admiration for what Shaun has done as a manager and Wigan are doing all right under him, but this is a tough game for them.Fulham are like Bournemouth in that they are in the top half of the Premier League and I want to see them give the FA Cup a real go.We talked about Silva's side on the Monday Night Club this week actually, as having a brilliant bench that can make a contribution most weeks.At the start of the season I thought Fulham's home form was impressive but it has dropped off recently, and it is their away form that is exceptional at the moment.I think they will carry that on in the FA Cup, and they will be too strong for Wigan.This game could see twin brothers Ryan and Steven Sessegnon play against each other for the first time in their careers - Ryan for Fulham and Steven for Wigan.I played against my younger brother, John, when we were both up in Scotland and he tried to kick me but did not get near me - it was a bit like when we played each other in the garden when we were kids, although I was 10 years older than him.Sutton's prediction: 1-3Doves' prediction: 1-1 after extra time, Fulham to win 2-1 on penalties
St Andrew's, 17:45 GMT1st in League One v 6th in Premier LeagueGap = 39Watch live on BBC One, the iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Sport Extra and 5 Live.There were raucous scenes at St James' Park on Wednesday night after Newcastle had beaten Arsenal in the Carabao Cup semi-finals.What a brilliant result over two legs against the Gunners, and why wouldn't Magpies fans want more of the same in the FA Cup as well?They want to end their long wait for a trophy and they will head for St Andrew's on a high.I do wonder if Newcastle boss Eddie Howe will rest one or two of his key men, because his side are going for a top four finish in the Premier League too.But if I were him I would not be resting anyone against a Birmingham side who are in fantastic form at the top of League One.I am a big fan of Birmingham boss Chris Davies, who spent time working with Brendan Rogers at a few clubs, including Celtic, but has stepped up as a manager himself. I always admire people who do that.Davies has signed a few players from north of the border for the Blues, and also spent more than Â£10m on Jay Stansfield from Fulham in August.That is a bit of clout for a League One club to have, but Birmingham wanted to go straight back up after being relegated last season, and it looks like it will pay off.This is a shot to nothing for them against Newcastle, and I think they will give them a good game - but I am going with Newcastle to come out on top.Sutton's prediction: 1-2Doves' prediction: 1-3
Amex Stadium, 20:00 GMT10th in Premier League v 4th in Premier LeagueGap = 6Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.This is not an easy tie to call.Brighton need to bounce back from losing 7-0 to Nottingham Forest, while Chelsea have been very up and down in recent weeks.Seagulls boss Fabian Hurzeler is quite an interesting character to watch on the touchline because of how emotional he is during the game. He has had five yellow cards and a red already this season and he has got to be careful, because that kind of indiscipline can rub off on your players.I think this game will be tight - I certainly don't see Brighton capitulating the way they did at Forest, but the key thing for them is Yasin Ayari and Carlos Baleba being fit to return in midfield.Even if they both return, I still feel like Chelsea will find a way of winning the tie. It may go all the way to penalties but I am going to say Enzo Maresca's side will win it in extra time.Sutton's prediction: 1-2 after extra timeDoves' prediction: 2-2 after extra time, Brighton to win 5-4 on penalties
Sunday, 9 February
Ewood Park 12:30 GMT5th in Championship v 17th in Premier LeagueGap = 8Watch live on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.I am co-commentating at this game for the iPlayer, and I am really looking forward to going back to Ewood Park.People there always tell me the great Alan Shearer was lucky to play alongside me when we won the Premier League together, and I know Al says the same himself regularly too.This is one of the ties where you think there is a chance of an upset, because of what Wolves boss Vitor Pereira might do - does he go full pelt, or rest a few?Pereira will make some changes, I am sure of that, because staying in the Premier League will be his priority.Rovers manager John Eustace has a different dilemma because I bet he would love to shuffle his squad to help their play-off bid, but he does not have the players to do it.Eustace has done a phenomenal job to have them in and around the top six, despite not being given any help in terms of signings.Scoring goals is Rovers' problem - Yuki Ohashi is out injured and Makhtar Gueye is not very prolific - and Andreas Weimann is their top scorer this season with eight.They are solid enough, though, with the likes of Callum Brittain, who has probably been Blackburn's best player this season, alongside Dom Hyam and Danny Batth at the back. They have all been colossal. Getting Lewis Travis back from injury has been important too. He is their real driving force in the middle of the park.As I say, I am not sure what the Wolves team selection will be like, but Pereira might want to build on last weekend's win over Aston Villa.Based on that, and the fact Blackburn play some good stuff but are not ruthless enough, this is another tie which could go the distance.Sutton's prediction: 2-1 after extra timeDoves' prediction: 1-0
Home Park, 15:00 GMT24th in Championship v 1st in Premier LeagueGap = 43Plymouth got their first league win since the start of November when they beat West Brom on Saturday, and they have brought a couple of players in under their new manager, Miron Muslic.Even so, you cannot see past Liverpool's quality getting them a win here.Arne Slot's side are going strong in Europe as well as the Premier League and I suppose the question is whether the number of games they play takes its toll eventually.So far, though, Slot has managed their schedule so well, and their squad is very strong. For example, Trent Alexander-Arnold is out at the moment, but Conor Bradley can come in at right-back - problem solved.I am speaking before they play Tottenham in the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final, but even defeat there would not derail their season. They have dropped points here and there, but unlike every other team at the top of the Premier League, they have not had a dodgy period.Whatever team that Slot puts out here, my feeling is that Liverpool are pretty unstoppable. They have this relentless nature, and they will find a way of beating Plymouth.Sutton's prediction: 1-3Doves' prediction: 1-4
Villa Park, 17:35 GMT8th in Premier League v 14th in Premier LeagueGap = 6Watch live on BBC One, the iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.Thursday's Carabao Cup semi-final is enormous for Tottenham's season.If they win, the pressure is not off their manager Ange Postecoglou but they would be into a major final and he would be one step away from their first major trophy since 2008 - their fans will be thinking very differently.If they lose, the pressure going into this tie would be heightened.The way Spurs beat Brentford was more 'Ange-Wall' than 'Ange-Ball' but it worked, and they might need more of the same to get through here.It will help Aston Villa that they don't have a midweek game before this tie and, as well as the result against Liverpool, one of the things that will affect Tottenham is fatigue and how many players they have got fit.When these two teams met in November, Spurs won 4-1 but it was a strange game and it could actually have gone either way. The same applies here too.Like Tottenham, Villa also have a problem keeping clean sheets - they have managed only one in their past 13 games - so I think there will be goals in this tie.It will be interesting to see if Villa's new loan signing, Marcus Rashford, gets one of them. Bringing Rashford in is a gamble, but I know myself from my career how a change of scenery can reinvigorate a player. This is essentially a trial for him - if he does well, they will sign him. If not, he will be going back to Manchester United.Sutton's prediction: 2-2 after extra time, Villa to win 12-11 on penaltiesDoves' prediction: 2-1
Monday, 10 February
Eco-Power Stadium, 20:00 GMT2nd in League Two v 12th in Premier LeagueGap = 58Watch live on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.Doncaster are the lowest ranked team left in the FA Cup but they won't be left in after they have played Crystal Palace.Palace have really improved in the past couple of months and, after a slow start to the season, they are now safe from relegation.I'd love to see the Eagles give it a go in the FA Cup this season. With Jean-Philippe Mateta up front they are a threat to anyone, and they will have too much for Doncaster to deal with.Sutton's prediction: 0-2Doves' prediction: 1-3
Tuesday, 11 February
St James Park, 20:00 GMT17th in League One v 3rd in Premier LeagueGap = 58I know it is being televised but I don't really understand why this game has to be on a Tuesday night, and I don't like it.The timing might affect Nuno Espirito Santo's team selection before Nottingham Forest go to Fulham on Saturday. It seems unfair they cannot play at the weekend like everyone else, and have a clear week before travelling to Craven Cottage.It won't stop 'The Wood-Chopper' [Chris Wood] from sending Forest through, but it could mean Nuno makes more changes for this tie. I hope he doesn't, but I think he might - although they should still have too much for Exeter.This is the first time that Exeter have reached the fourth round since 1980-81, and they went on to lose to eventual winners Tottenham in the quarter-finals.I'd love to see Forest - have I mentioned they were my boyhood team? - repeat that feat and go all the way to the final this season. If they do make it to Wembley, I will definitely be there cheering them on.Sutton's prediction: 0-3Doves' prediction: 0-4
How did Sutton do in round three?
Chris and his guest, actor Billy Bob Thornton, both correctly picked the winner in 22 of the 32 FA Cup third-round ties.The BBC readers did slightly better, and were right about 23 of the ties.Not many of you saw Plymouth's win at Brentford coming, however. Out of more than 38,000 predictions, only 4% of you went with Argyle to progress.
How did Sutton do last week?
Chris got three correct results from the 10 Premier League games in week 24, with one exact score, giving him a total of 60 points.Using the most popular scoreline from their predictions for each game, the BBC readers got five correct results but with no exact scores, giving them 50 points.The winner was Chris's guest, Squid guitarist Anton Pearson. He got four correct results with one exact score, giving him a total of 70 points.