Effects of climate change

Climate change affects the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. Changes in the climate system include an overall warming trend, more extreme weather and rising sea levels. These in turn impact nature and wildlife, as well as human settlements and societies. The effects of human-caused climate change are broad and far-reaching. This is especially so if there is no significant climate action. Experts sometimes describe the projected and observed negative impacts of climate change as the climate crisis.

The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions. There are many effects of climate change on oceans. These include an increase in ocean temperatures, a rise in sea level from ocean warming and ice sheet melting. They include increased ocean stratification. They also include changes to ocean currents including a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is acidifiying the ocean.

Recent warming has had a big effect on natural biological systems. It has degraded land by raising temperatures, drying soils and increasing wildfire risk. Species all over the world are migrating towards the poles to colder areas. On land, many species move to higher ground, whereas marine species seek colder water at greater depths. At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered.

Food security and access to fresh water are at risk due to rising temperatures. Climate change has profound impacts on human health. These can be direct impacts via heat stress. They can be indirect changes via the spread of infectious diseases. Humans are vulnerable and exposed to climate change in different ways. This varies by economic sector and by country. Wealthy industrialised countries, which have emitted the most CO2, have more resources. So they are the least vulnerable to global warming. Climate change affects many economic sectors. They include agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy, insurance, and tourism. Some groups may be particularly at risk from climate change, such as the poor, women, children and indigenous peoples. Climate change can lead to displacement and changes in migration flows.

## Changes in temperature

Global warming affects all parts of Earth's climate system. Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future. The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions. Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures. The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms.

Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate. To assess changes in Earth's past climate scientists have studied tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments. These show that recent temperatures have surpassed anything in the last 2,000 years. By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may increase to a level last seen in the mid-Pliocene. This was around 3 million years ago. At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C (3.6–7.2 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. The global mean sea level was up to 25 meters higher than it is today. The modern observed rise in temperature and concentrations has been rapid. even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates.How much the world warms depends on human greenhouse gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases. The more carbon dioxide () is emitted in the 21st century the hotter the world will be by 2100. For a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations, the global mean temperature would rise by about 2.5–4 °C (4.5–7.2 °F). What would happen if emissions of stopped abruptly and there was no use of negative emission technologies? The Earth's climate would not start moving back to its pre-industrial state. Temperatures would stay at the same high level for several centuries. After about a thousand years, 20% to 30% of human-emitted would remain in the atmosphere. The ocean and land would not have taken them. This would commit the climate to a warmer state long after emissions have stopped.

With current mitigation policies the temperature will be about 2.7 °C (2.0–3.6 °C) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. It would rise to 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) if governments achieve all unconditional pledges and targets they have made. If all the countries that have set or are considering net-zero targets achieve them, the temperature will rise by around 1.8 °C (3.2 °F). There is a big gap between national plans and commitments and the actions that governments have taken around the world.

## Weather

The lower and middle atmosphere, where nearly all weather occurs, are heating due to the greenhouse effect. Evaporation and atmospheric moisture content increase as temperatures rise. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so this process is a self-reinforcing feedback.

The excess water vapour also gets caught up in storms. This makes them more intense, larger, and potentially longer-lasting. This in turn causes rain and snow events to become stronger and leads to increased risk of flooding. Extra drying worsens natural dry spells and droughts. This increases risk of heat waves and wildfires. Scientists have identified human activities as the cause of recent climate trends. They are now able to estimate the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. They call this process extreme event attribution. For instance such research can look at historical data for a region and conclude that a specific heat wave was more intense due to climate change.

### Heat waves and temperature extremes

Heatwaves over land have become more frequent and more intense in almost all world regions since the 1950s, due to climate change. Heat waves are more likely to occur simultaneously with droughts. Marine heatwaves are twice as likely as they were in 1980. Climate change will lead to more very hot days and fewer very cold days. There are fewer cold waves.

Experts can often attribute the intensity of individual heat waves to global warming. Some extreme events would have been nearly impossible without human influence on the climate system. A heatwave that would occur once every ten years before global warming started now occurs 2.8 times as often. Under further warming, heatwaves are set to become more frequent. An event that would occur every ten years would occur every other year if global warming reaches 2 °C (3.6 °F).

Heat stress is related to temperature. It also increases if humidity is higher. The wet-bulb temperature measures both temperature and humidity. Humans cannot adapt to a wet-bulb temperature above 35 °C (95 °F). This heat stress can kill people. If global warming is kept below 1.5 or 2 °C (2.7 or 3.6 °F), it will probably be possible to avoid this deadly heat and humidity in most of the tropics. But there may still be negative health impacts.

There is some evidence climate change is leading to a weakening of the polar vortex. This would make the jet stream more wavy. This would lead to outbursts of very cold winter weather across parts of Eurasia and North America and incursions of very warm air into the Arctic.

### Rain

Warming increases global average precipitation. Precipitation is when water vapour condenses out of clouds, such as rain and snow. Higher temperatures increase evaporation and surface drying. As the air warms it can hold more water. For every degree Celsius it can hold 7% more water vapour. Scientists have observed changes in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation. Overall, climate change is causing longer hot dry spells, broken by more intense rainfall.

Climate change has increased contrasts in rainfall amounts between wet and dry seasons. Wet seasons are getting wetter and dry seasons are getting drier. In the northern high latitudes, warming has also caused an increase in the amount of snow and rain. In the Southern Hemisphere, the rain associated with the storm tracks has shifted south. Changes in monsoons vary a lot. More monsoon systems are becoming wetter than drier. In Asia summer monsoons are getting wetter. The West African monsoon is getting wetter over the central Sahel, and drier in the far western Sahel.

### Extreme storms

Storms become wetter under climate change. These include tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones. Both the maximum and mean rainfall rates increase. This more extreme rainfall is also true for thunderstorms in some regions. Furthermore, tropical cyclones and storm tracks are moving towards the poles. This means some regions will see large changes in maximum wind speeds. Scientists expect there will be fewer tropical cyclones. But they expect their strength to increase. There has probably been an increase in the number of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly.

## Impacts on land

### Floods

Due to an increase in heavy rainfall events, floods are likely to become more severe when they do occur. The interactions between rainfall and flooding are complex. There are some regions in which flooding is expected to become rarer. This depends on several factors. These include changes in rain and snowmelt, but also soil moisture. Climate change leaves soils drier in some areas, so they may absorb rainfall more quickly. This leads to less flooding. Dry soils can also become harder. In this case heavy rainfall runs off into rivers and lakes. This increases risks of flooding.

### Droughts

Climate change affects many factors associated with droughts. These include how much rain falls and how fast the rain evaporates again. Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world. In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world, there will probably be less rain due to global warming. This will make them more prone to drought. Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world. These include Central America, the Amazon and south-western South America. They also include West and Southern Africa. The Mediterranean and south-western Australia are also some of these regions.

Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increases plant stress. Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts. These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100. Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.

Several impacts make their impacts worse. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas. Land restoration can help reduce the impact of droughts. One example of this is agroforestry.

### Wildfires

Climate change promotes the type of weather that makes wildfires more likely. In some areas, an increase of wildfires has been attributed directly to climate change. Evidence from Earth's past also shows more fire in warmer periods. Climate change increases evaporation. This can cause vegetation to dry out. When a fire starts in an area with very dry vegetation, it can spread rapidly. Higher temperatures can also lengthen the fire season. This is the time of year in which severe wildfires are most likely, particularly in regions where snow is disappearing.

Weather conditions are raising the risks of wildfires. But the total area burnt by wildfires has decreased. This is mostly because savanna has been converted to cropland, so there are fewer trees to burn. Prescribed burning isan indigenous practice in the US and Australia. It can reduce wildfire burning. The carbon released from wildfires can add to greenhouse gas concentrations. Climate models do not yet full reflect this feedback.

## Oceans

### Sea level rise

## Ice and snow

The cryosphere, the area of the Earth covered by snow or ice, is extremely sensitive to changes in global climate. There has been an extensive loss of snow on land since 1981. Some of the largest declines have been observed in the spring. During the 21st century, snow cover is projected to continue its retreat in almost all regions.

### Glaciers and ice sheets decline

Since the beginning of the twentieth century, there has been a widespread retreat of glaciers. Those glaciers that are not associated with the polar ice sheets lost around 8% of their mass between 1971 and 2019. In the Andes in South America and in the Himalayas in Asia, the retreat of glaciers could impact water supply. The melting of those glaciers could also cause landslides or glacial lake outburst floods.

The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will continue to contribute to sea level rise over long time-scales. The Greenland ice sheet loss is mainly driven by melt from the top. Antarctic ice loss is driven by warm ocean water melting the outlet glaciers.

Future melt of the West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially abrupt under a high emission scenario, as a consequence of a partial collapse. Part of the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock below sea level. This makes it possibly vulnerable to the self-enhancing process of marine ice sheet instability. Marine ice cliff instability could also contribute to a partial collapse. But there is limited evidence for its importance. A partial collapse of the ice sheet would lead to rapid sea level rise and a local decrease in ocean salinity. It would be irreversible for decades and possibly even millennia. The complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet would cause over 5 metres (16 ft) of sea level rise.

In contrast to the West Antarctic ice sheet, melt of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to take place more gradually over millennia. Sustained warming between 1 °C (1.8 °F) (low confidence) and 4 °C (7.2 °F) (medium confidence) would lead to a complete loss of the ice sheet. This would contribute 7 m (23 ft) to sea levels globally. The ice loss could become irreversible due to a further self-enhancing feedback. This is called the elevation-surface mass balance feedback. When ice melts on top of the ice sheet, the elevation drops. Air temperature is higher at lower altitudes, so this promotes further melting.

### Sea ice decline

Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of the incoming solar radiation back into space. Only 6% of incoming solar energy is reflected by the ocean. As the climate warms, the area covered by snow or sea ice decreases. After sea ice melts, more energy is absorbed by the ocean, so it warms up. This ice-albedo feedback is a self-reinforcing feedback of climate change. Large-scale measurements of sea ice have only been possible since we have been using satellites.

Sea ice in the Arctic has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century. It has a rate of decline of 4.7% per decade. It has declined over 50% since the first satellite records. Ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) degrees of warming. They are set to occur at least once every decade with a warming level of 2 °C (3.6 °F). The Arctic will likely become ice-free at the end of some summers before 2050.

Sea ice extent in Antarctica varies a lot year by year. This makes it difficult to determine a trend, and record highs and record lows have been observed between 2013 and 2023. The general trend since 1979, the start of the satellite measurements, has been roughly flat. Between 2015 and 2023, there has been a decline in sea ice, but due to the high variability, this does not correspond to a significant trend.

### Permafrost thawing

Globally, permafrost warmed by about 0.3 °C between 2007 and 2016. The extent of permafrost has been falling for decades. More decline is expected in the future. Permafrost thaw makes the ground weaker and unstable. The thaw can seriously damage human infrastructure in permafrost areas such as railways, settlements and pipelines. Thawing soil can also release methane and from decomposing microbes. This can generate a strong feedback loop to global warming. Some scientists believe that carbon storage in permafrost globally is approximately 1600 gigatons. This is twice the atmospheric pool.

## Wildlife and nature

Recent warming has had a big effect on natural biological systems. Species worldwide are moving poleward to colder areas. On land, species may move to higher elevations. Marine species find colder water at greater depths. Climate change had the third biggest impact on nature out of various factors in the five decades up to 2020. Only change in land use and sea use and direct exploitation of organisms had a bigger impact.

The impacts of climate change on nature are likely to become bigger in the next few decades. The stresses caused by climate change, combine with other stresses on ecological systems such as land conversion, land degradation, harvesting, and pollution. They threaten substantial damage to unique ecosystems. They can even result in their complete loss and the extinction of species. This can disrupt key interactions between species within ecosystems. This is because species from one location do not leave the warming habitat at the same rate. The result is rapid changes in the way the ecosystem functions. Impacts include changes in regional rainfall patterns. Another is earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions. Movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes, changes in bird migrations, and shifting of the oceans' plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities are other impacts.

These changes of land and ocean ecosystems have direct effects on human well-being. For instance, ocean ecosystems help with coastal protection and provide food. Freshwater and land ecosystems can provide water for human consumption. Furthermore, these ecosystems can store carbon. This helps to stabilize the climate system.

### Ecosystems on land

Climate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss in different land types. These include cool conifer forests, savannas, mediterranean-climate systems, tropical forests, and the Arctic tundra. In other ecosystems, land-use change may be a stronger driver of biodiversity loss, at least in the near term. Beyond 2050, climate change may be the major cause of biodiversity loss globally. Climate change interacts with other pressures. These include habitat modification, pollution and invasive species. Through this interaction, climate change increases the risk of extinction for many terrestrial and freshwater species. At 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) of warming (around 2023) some ecosystems are threatened by mass die-offs of trees and from heatwaves. At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered. This differs by group. For instance insects and salamanders are more vulnerable. Rainfall on the Amazon rainforest is recycled when it evaporates back into the atmosphere instead of running off away from the rainforest. This water is essential for sustaining the rainforest. Due to deforestation the rainforest is losing this ability. This effect is even worse because climate change brings more frequent droughts to the area. The higher frequency of droughts in the first two decades of the 21st century and other data signal that a tipping point from rainforest to savanna might be close. A 2019 study concluded that this ecosystem could begin a 50-year-long collapse to a savanna around 2021. After that it would become increasingly and disproportionally more difficult to prevent or reverse this shift.

### Marine ecosystems

Marine heatwaves are happening more often. They have widespread impacts on life in the oceans. These include mass dying events and coral bleaching. Harmful algae blooms have increased. This is in response to warming waters, loss of oxygen and eutrophication. Melting sea ice destroys habitat, including for algae that grows on its underside.

Ocean acidification can harm marine organisms in various ways. Shell-forming organisms like oysters are particularly vulnerable. Some phytoplankton and seagrass species may benefit. However, some of these are toxic to fish phytoplankton species. Their spread poses risks to fisheries and aquaculture. Fighting pollution can reduce the impact of acidification.

Warm-water coral reefs are very sensitive to global warming and ocean acidification. Coral reefs provide a habitat for thousands of species. They provide ecosystem services such as coastal protection and food. The resilience of reefs can be improved by curbing local pollution and overfishing. But 70–90% of today's warm-water coral reefs will disappear even if warming is kept to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Coral reefs are framework organisms. They build physical structures that form habitats for other sea creatures. Other framework organisms are also at risk from climate change. Mangroves and seagrass are considered to be at moderate risk from lower levels of global warming.

## Tipping points and irreversible impacts

Feedbacks that reinforce themselves can make climate change worse. The climate system exhibits "threshold behaviour" or tipping points when these feedbacks lead parts of the Earth system into a new state. Examples are the runaway loss of ice sheets or the dieback of forests. Tipping behaviour is found in all parts of the climate system. These include ecosystems, ice sheets, and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere. Tipping points are studied using data from Earth's distant past and by physical modelling. There is already moderate risk of global tipping points at 1 °C (1.8 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures. That becomes a high risk at 2.5 °C (4.5 °F). It is possible that some tipping points are close or have already been crossed. Examples are the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and warm-water coral reefs.

Tipping points are perhaps the most dangerous aspect of future climate change. They would to irreversible impacts on society. A collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would likely halve rainfall in India. It would probably lead to severe drops in temperature in Northern Europe. Many tipping points are interlinked. This means triggering one may lead to a cascade of effects. This could happen even well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming. A 2018 study states that 45% of environmental problems, including those caused by climate change, are interconnected. This makes the risk of a domino effect bigger.

Further impacts may be irreversible, at least over the timescale of many human generations. This includes warming of the deep ocean and acidification. These are set to continue even when global temperatures stop rising. In biological systems, the extinction of species would be an irreversible impact. In social systems, unique cultures may be lost. Climate change could make it more likely that endangered languages disappear.

## Health, food security and water security

Humans have a climate niche. This is a certain range of temperatures in which they flourish. Outside that niche, conditions are less favourable. This leads to negative effects on health, food security and more. This niche is a mean annual temperature above 29oC. As of May 2023, 60 million people lived outside this niche. With every additional 0.1 degree of warming, 140 million people will be pushed out of it.

### Health

### Food security

Climate change will affect agriculture and food production around the world. The reasons include the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere. Higher temperatures and altered precipitation and transpiration regimes are also factors. Increased frequency of extreme events and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure are other factors. Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture for livestock. Loss and poor growth of livestock cause milk yield and meat production to decrease. The rate of soil erosion is 10–20 times higher than the rate of soil accumulation in agricultural areas that use no-till farming. In areas with tilling it is 100 times higher. Climate change worsens this type of land degradation and desertification.

Climate change is projected to negatively affect all four pillars of food security. It will affect how much food is available. It will also affect how easy food is to access through prices, food quality, and how stable the food system is. Climate change is already affecting the productivity of wheat and other staples.

In many areas fisheries catches are already decreasing because of global warming and changes in biochemical cycles. In combination with overfishing, warming waters decrease the amount of fish in the ocean. Per degree of warming, ocean biomass is expected to decrease by about 5%. Tropical and subtropical oceans are most affected, while there may be more fish in polar waters.

### Water security

Water resources can be affected by climate change in various ways. The total amount of freshwater available can change, for instance due to dry spells or droughts. Heavy rainfall and flooding can have an impact on water quality. They can transport pollutants into water bodies through increased surface runoff. In coastal regions, more salt may find its way into water resources due to higher sea levels and more intense storms. Higher temperatures also directly degrade water quality. This is because warm water contains less oxygen. Changes in the water cycle threaten existing and future water infrastructure. It will be harder to plan investments for water infrastructure. This is because there are significant uncertainties about future variability of the water cycle.

Between 1.5 and 2.5 billion people live in areas with regular water security issues. If global warming reaches 4 °C (7.2 °F), water insecurity would affect about twice as many people. Water resources are likely to decrease in most dry subtropical regions and mid-latitudes. But they will increase in high latitudes. However, variable streamflow means even regions with increased water resources can experience additional short-term shortages. In the arid regions of India, China, the US and Africa dry spells and drought are already affecting water availability.

## Human settlement

Climate change is particularly likely to affect the Arctic, Africa, small islands, Asian megadeltas and the Middle East regions. Low-latitude, less-developed regions are most at risk of experiencing negative climate change impacts. The ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the most vulnerable in the world to the negative effects of climate change. ASEAN's climate mitigation efforts are not in proportion to the climate change threats the region faces.

### Impacts from heat

Regions inhabited by a third of the human population could become as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara within 50 years. This would happen if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow rapdily without a change in patterns of population growth and without migration. The projected average temperature of above 29 °C (84 °F) for these regions would be outside the "human temperature niche". This is a range for climate that is biologically suitable for humans. It is based on historical data of mean annual temperatures. The most affected regions have little adaptive capacity.

Increased extreme heat exposure from climate change and the urban heat island effect threatens urban settlements. This is made worse by the loss of shade from urban trees that cannot withstand the heat stress.

In 2019, the Crowther Lab from ETH Zurich paired the climatic conditions of 520 major cities worldwide with the predicted climatic conditions of cities in 2050. It found that 22% of the major cities would have climatic conditions that do not exist in any city today. For instance, 2050 London would have a climate similar to 2019 Melbourne in Australia. Athens and Madrid would be like Fez in Morocco. Nairobi in Kenya would be like Maputo in Mozambique. The Indian city Pune would be like Bamako in Mali and Bamako would be like Niamey in Niger. Brasilia would be like Goiania, both in Brazil.

### Low-lying coastal regions

Low-lying cities and other settlements near the sea face multiple simultaneous risks from climate change. They face flooding risks from sea level rise. In addition they may face impacts from more severe storms, ocean acidification, and salt intrusion into the groundwater. Changes like continued development in exposed areas increase the risks that these regions face. Population density on the coasts is high. Estimates of the number of people at risk of coastal flooding from climate-driven sea level rise vary. Estimates range from 190 million to 300 million. It could even be 640 million in a worst-case scenario related to the instability of the Antarctic ice sheet. People are most affected in the densely-populated low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa.

Small island developing states are especially vulnerable. They are likely to experience more intense storm surges, salt water intrusion and coastal destruction. Low-lying small islands in the Pacific, Indian, and Caribbean regions even risk permanent inundation. This would displace their population. On the islands of Fiji, Tonga and western Samoa, migrants from outer islands inhabit low and unsafe areas along the coasts. The entire populations of small atoll nations such as Kiribati, Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu are at risk of being displaced. This could raise issues of statelessness. Several factors increase their vulnerability. These are small size, isolation from other land, low financial resources, and lack of protective infrastructure.

## Impacts on societies

Climate change has many impacts on society. It affects health, the availability of drinking water and food, inequality and economic growth. The effects of climate change are often interlinked. They can exacerbate each other as well as existing vulnerabilities. Some areas may become too hot for humans to live in. Climate-related changes or disasters may lead people in some areas to move to other parts of the country or to other countries.

Some scientists describe the effects of climate change, with continuing increases in greenhouse gas emissions, as a "climate emergency" or "climate crisis". Some researchers and activists describe them as an existential threat to civilization. Some define these threats under climate security. The consequences of climate change, and the failure to address it, can distract people from tackling its root causes. This leads to what some researchers have termed a "climate doom loop".

### Displacement and migration

Displacement is when people move within a country. Migration is when they move to another country. Some people use the terms interchangeably. Climate change affects displacement in several ways. More frequent and severe weather-related disasters may increase involuntary displacement. These destroy homes and habitats. Climate impacts such as desertification and rising sea levels gradually erode livelihoods. They force communities to abandon traditional homelands. Other forms of migration are adaptive and voluntary. They are based on individual or household decisions. On the other hand, some households may fall into poverty or get poorer due to climate change. This limits their ability to move to less affected areas.

Migration due to climate and weather is usually within countries. But it is long-distance. Slow-onset disasters such as droughts and heat are more likely to cause long-term migration than weather disasters like floods. Migration due to desertification and reduced soil fertility is typically from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, extreme weather events displaced approximately 30 million people in 2020. Violence and wars displaced approximately 10 million in the same year. There may have been a contribution of climate change to these conflicts. In 2018, the World Bank estimated that climate change will cause internal migration of between 31 and 143 million people by 2050. This would be as they escape crop failures, water scarcity, and sea level rise. The study covered only Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.

### Conflict

Climate change can worsen conflicts over water and other resources. Climate change can also cause large population dislocations and migration. This can lead to increased tensions. Scientists have found that factors other than climate change were more important in affecting conflict over the last century. One such factor is inequality between groups. Another is low socio-economic development. In some cases, climate change can lead to more peaceful relationships between groups. This is because environmental problems need common policies.

Global warming has been described as a "threat multiplier". Conditions in certain places make it more likely that climate change will have an impact on conflict. These include ethnic exclusion, economies dependent on agriculture, insufficient infrastructure, poor local governance, and low levels of development. A spike in wheat prices following crop losses from a period of drought may have contributed to the onset of the "Arab Spring" protests and revolutions in 2010.

### Economic impacts

Economic forecasts of the impact of global warming vary considerably. The impacts are worse if there is insufficient adaptation. Economic modelling may underrate the impact of catastrophic climatic changes. When estimating losses, economists choose a discount rate. This determines how much one prefers to have goods or cash now compared to at a future date. Using a high discount rate may understate economic losses. This is because losses for future generations weigh less heavily.

Economic impacts are bigger the more the temperature rises. Scientists have compared impacts with warming of 1.5 oC (2.7 oF) and a level of 3.66 oC (6.59 oF). They use this higher figure to represent no efforts to stop emissions. They found that total damages at 1.5 oC were 90% less than at 3.66 oC. One study found that global GDP at the end of the century would be 3.5% less if warming is limited to 3 °C (5.4 °F). This study excludes the potential effect of tipping points. Another study found that excluding tipping points underestimates the global economic impact by a factor of two to eight. Another study found that a temperature rise of 2 °C (3.6 °F) by 2050 would reduce global GDP by 2.5%–7.5%. By 2100 in this scenario the temperature would rise by 4 °C (7.2 °F). This could reduce global GDP by 30% in the worst case.

Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather events since the 1970s. Socio-economic factors have contributed to the observed trend of global losses. These factors include population growth and increased wealth. Regional climatic factors also play a role. These include changes in precipitation and flooding events. It is difficult to quantify the relative impact of socio-economic factors and climate change on the observed trend. The trend does suggest social systems are increasing vulnerable to climate change.

#### Economic inequality

Climate change has contributed to global economic inequality. Wealthy countries in colder regions have felt little overall economic impact from climate change or may have benefited. Poor hotter countries probably grew less than if there had been no global warming.

#### Highly affected sectors

Climate change has a bigger impact on economic sectors directly affected by weather than on other sectors. It heavily affects agriculture, fisheries and forestry. It also affects the tourism and energy sectors. Agriculture and forestry have suffered economic losses due to droughts and extreme heat. If global warming goes over 1.5 oC, there may be limits to how much tourism and outdoor work can adapt.

In the energy sector, thermal power plants depend on water to cool them. Climate change can increase the likelihood of drought and fresh water shortages. Higher operating temperatures make them less efficient. This reduces their output. Hydropower is affected by changes in the water cycle such as river flows. Diminished river flows can cause power shortages in areas that depend on hydroelectric power. Brazil relies on hydroelectricity. So it is particularly vulnerable. Rising temperatures, lower water flow, and changes in rainfall could reduce total energy production by 7% annually by the end of the century. Climate change affects oil and natural gas infrastructure. This is also vlunerable to the increased risk of disasters such as storms, cyclones, flooding and rising sea levels.

Global warming affects the insurance and financial services sectors. Insurance is an important tool to manage risks. But it is often unavailable to poorer households. Due to climate change, premiums are going up for certain types of insurance, such as flood insurance. Poor adaptation to climate change further widens the gap between what people can afford and the costs of insurance, as risks increase. In 2019 Munich Re said climate change could make home insurance unaffordable for households at or below average incomes.

### Social impacts on vulnerable groups

Climate change does not affect people within communities in the same way. It can have a bigger impact on vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, religious minorities and refugees than on others.

- People living in poverty: Climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low-income communities and developing countries around the world. Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change, due to their increased exposure and vulnerability. A 2020 World Bank paper estimated that between 32 million to 132 million additional people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change.
- Women: Climate change increases gender inequality. It reduces women's ability to be financially independent, and has an overall negative impact on the social and political rights of women. This is especially the case in economies that are heavily based on agriculture.
- Indigenous peoples: Indigenous communities tend to rely more on the environment for food and other necessities. This makes them more vulnerable to disturbances in ecosystems. Indigenous communities across the globe generally have bigger economic disadvantages than non-indigenous communities. This is due to the oppression they have experienced. These disadvantages include less access to education and jobs and higher rates of poverty. All this makes them more vulnerable to climate change.
- Children: The Lancet review on health and climate change lists children among the worst-affected by global warming. Children are 14–44 percent more likely to die from environmental factors.

### Possibility of societal collapse

Climate change has long been described as a severe risk to humans. Climate change as an existential threat has emerged as a key theme in the climate movement. People from Small island nations also use this theme. There has not been extensive research in this topic. Existential risks are threats that could cause the extinction of humanity or destroy the potential of intelligent life on Earth. Key risks of climate change do not fit that definition. However, some key climate risks do have an impact people's ability to survive. For instance, areas may become too hot to survive, or sea level rise may make it impossible to live at a specific location.

## See also

- Anthropocene
- Global catastrophic risk
- Politics of climate change


2000 French Grand Prix

The 2000 French Grand Prix (officially the LXXXVI Mobil 1 Grand Prix de France) was a Formula One motor race contested on 2 July 2000 at the Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours in Magny-Cours, Burgundy, Central France, attended by 112,112 spectators. It was the 86th French Grand Prix and the ninth round of the 2000 Formula One World Championship. McLaren's David Coulthard won the 72-lap race after starting second. His teammate Mika Häkkinen finished second with Ferrari's Rubens Barrichello third.

Before the race, Michael Schumacher led the World Drivers' Championship and Ferrari led the World Constructors' Championship. Coulthard started the race alongside Michael Schumacher, who started from pole position after setting the fastest qualifying lap. Barrichello started third and passed Coulthard entering the first corner. Michael Schumacher retained his early lead and led after the first round of pit stops. During the race's second stint, Michael Schumacher began to struggle with tyre wear, allowing Coulthard to reduce the deficit and pass him on lap 40. Coulthard won the race after retaining his lead during the second round of pit stops. Michael Schumacher retired on lap 59 due to engine failure, advancing Häkkinen to second place. Barrichello finished third, followed by BAR driver Jacques Villeneuve in fourth.

Coulthard won his third race of the season and his eighth in Formula One, reduced Michael Schumacher's lead in the World Drivers' Championship to twelve points. Häkkinen remained third with 38 points, six more than Barrichello. McLaren's one-two result in the World Constructors' Championship allowed them to close the deficit on Ferrari to six points with eight races remaining in the season.

## Background

The 2000 French Grand Prix was the ninth of seventeen rounds in the 2000 Formula One World Championship, contested on 2 July 2000 at the 4.251 km (2.641 mi) clockwise Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours in Magny-Cours, Burgundy, Central France. Sole tyre supplier Bridgestone delivered the more balanced and less grippy Soft and the faster Extra Soft dry compound tyres to the event. Bridgestone technical director Yoshihiko Ichikawa urged teams to use extra soft compounds instead of soft tyres because they provided more car grip and understeer was less noticeable at the Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours than on rougher circuits. The event featured eleven teams (each representing a different constructor) with two drivers each, with no changes from the season entry list.

Ferrari's Michael Schumacher led the World Drivers' Championship with 56 points before the race, followed by McLaren's David Coulthard on 34 and his teammate Mika Häkkinen on 32. Ferrari's Rubens Barrichello was fourth with 28 points, with Benetton's Giancarlo Fisichella fifth with 18 points. Ferrari led the World Constructors' Championship with 84 points. McLaren and Benetton were second and third with 66 and 18 points, respectively, and Williams and Jordan contended for fourth with 15 and ten points, respectively.

Following the on 18 June, the teams (except for Minardi due to a transport strike in Italy) tested at the track between 21 and 23 June to prepare for the upcoming French Grand Prix. Coulthard led the first day from McLaren test driver Olivier Panis.Arrows' Jos Verstappen lost control of his car after a mechanical failure and crashed into the barriers at turn two. Verstappen suffered neck strain and withdrew from testing. He was later cleared to compete in the Grand Prix. Coulthard remained fastest on the second day. Fisichella damaging the underside of his car's chassis, limiting his testing time while Benetton repaired his car. On the final day of testing, Häkkinen was fastest. Michael Schumacher stopped on track as his Ferrari engine failed, necessitating the installation of a replacement engine into the chassis. On June 27, Ferrari went to their private testing facility, the Fiorano Circuit, where test driver Luca Badoer shakedown three Ferrari F1-2000 cars and practised pit stops.

After the Canadian Grand Prix, where he stalled on the grid before the formation lap before receiving a ten-second stop-go penalty because his mechanics worked on his car 15 seconds before the race started, Coulthard said that Ferrari could still be caught in the season's nine remaining races: "We have to look towards Magny-Cours and put this (Montreal) race behind us. The championship is not over yet and although we cannot change what happened in Canada, we can try to close the gap." After Häkkinen's recent poor results, British Racing Drivers Club (BRDC) president an former world champion Jackie Stewart backed Coulthard to win the championship. Michael Schumacher was optimistic that his car would perform well on the track. Flavio Briatore, Benetton team principal, downplayed his team's chances, saying, "We need a miracle to finish on the podium."

Almost every team modified their cars for the event. Ferrari introduced chimney stacks on the F1-2000 during free practice for the first time and additional vents to extract warm air for aerodynamic efficiency. The team reverted to previous specifications for qualifying and the race. It also modified the axle construction at the car's bottom with composite materials designed to minimise friction when it touched the asphalt surface. McLaren installed a new extractor profile for free practice and qualifying but removed it for warm-up and the race. It also asymmetrically positioned the rear-view mirrors, the right placed further forward and lower than the left for improved visibility in the track's final corner. Sauber modified the sides' opening and BAR installed a new body and ailerons. Peugeot provided Prost with an upgraded V10 engine for driver Jean Alesi, who slammed the engine's driveability. Jordan debuted a revised braking system.

## Practice

Before the race on Sunday, there were two one-hour sessions on Friday and two 45-minute sessions on Saturday. The Friday morning and afternoon practice sessions were held in hot, dry weather. Michael Schumacher set the first practice session's fastest lap at 1:16.474, two tenths of a second faster than Häkkinen. Prost's Nick Heidfeld was third, ahead Williams' Ralf Schumacher. Jaguar's Eddie Irvine and Johnny Herbert were fifth and seventh. Fisichella came in sixth, separating the two. Alesi, Arrows' Pedro de la Rosa and Williams' Jenson Button finished eighth through tenth. Only four drivers set timed laps after two-thirds had passed and fourteen others set one timed lap before returning to the pit lane. Just four drivers set no laps: Coulthard's car experienced a mechanical fuel pump issue, Barrichello drove one installation lap to preserve tyre use and both Jordan drivers sat out the session.

Coulthard led the second practice session with a lap of 1:16.253 despite losing 25 minutes due to an oil tank leak that his crew remedied by removing the engine in his car, limiting his running to four minutes; Häkkinen ended second fastest. Ferraris were second and fourth, with Michael Schumacher ahead of Barrichello. Sauber's Mika Salo was fifth fastest, ahead of Fisichella, Jordan's Jarno Trulli, Heidfeld, Ralf Schumacher and Trulli's teammate Heinz-Harald Frentzen in positions six through ten. The lack of grip at the tight last corner leading onto the pit lane straight caught out some drivers. The overall grip was poor around the course and BAR's Jacques Villeneuve and Ricardo Zonta beached their cars in the gravel trap. Trulli stalled attempting to simulate a standing start.

The weather remained dry and hot for the Saturday morning practice sessions. Every racer could drive on the circuit in preparation for qualifying later that day. Coulthard set the third session's fastest time, a 1:15.965, the first driver to lap faster than 1:16. Häkkinen was second fastest, almost two-tenths slower than Coulthard. Jordan teammates Trulli and Frentzen were both faster than the day before, with Trulli third and Frentzen fourth. Jaguar's Irvine was fifth and Herbert was eighth. Michael Schumacher and Button separated them. Barrichello and de la Rosa were ninth and tenth, respectively.

Coulthard was unable to improve his time in the last practice session due to an engine problem halfway down the track, forcing him to enter the pit lane with smoke billowing from his car, although remaining fastest overall. Because there was insufficient time to fix the problem during practise, Coulthard's mechanics replaced the engine in his vehicle for qualifying. Häkkinen lapped faster and remained second. Barrichello went quicker and was third fastest, ahead of Ralf Schumacher. Jordan drivers Trulli and Frentzen finished fifth and sixth, with best times two thousandths of a second apart. Irvine was seventh quickest, ahead of Michael Schumacher, who focused on qualifying setup. Button and Herbert were ninth and tenth.

## Qualifying

Each driver was limited to twelve laps during Saturday's one-hour qualifying session, with the starting position determined by their fastest performance. The 107% rule was in force during this session, which required each driver to achieve a time within 107% of the fastest lap to qualify for the race. Qualifying was held in dry, hot weather, with temperatures periodically rising during the session. Michael Schumacher posted a time of 1:15.632, his fourth pole position of the season and the 27th of his career, around 25 minutes into the session. He was joined on the first row by Coulthard, whose fastest time was 0.102 seconds slower, and drove the spare McLaren vehicle for two laps while the team's mechanics replaced a defective fuel pump under the fuel tank. Coulthard was unable to lap quicker after spinning through 180 degrees, and the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA) ordered him to undergo a car weight inspection in the pit lane. Barrichello secured third after changing his car's set-up in qualifying, which caused uncertainty over ride height changes. Häkkinen was demoted to fourth by Barrichello on the final lap due to difficulty in the slow speed turns from setup problems. Late in qualifying, Ralf Schumacher qualified fifth and was pleased with his starting position. He demoted Irvine to sixth place in the final phases of qualifying. Villeneuve qualified seventh.

Jordan's Trulli and Frentzen were eighth and ninth. Both drivers were disappointed with their performance; Trulli went wide off the course and returned via the off surface, preventing him from lapping faster. Button qualified tenth. Herbert in eleventh failed to qualify in the top ten by nearly three-tenths of a second. Salo took twelfth, with his fastest time posted when cloud cover reduced air and track temperatures. He was ahead of de la Rosa in 13th position in the quicker of the two Arrows; he electronics system failed, and he returned to the pit lane to drive the spare Arrows car. Fisichella started 14th due to car balance and tyre wear, nearly one-tenth of a second faster than Benetton teammate Alexander Wurz; both drivers reported car grip issues. Pedro Diniz in the other Sauber and Heidfeld split the two. Alesi followed in 18th. Zonta, 19th, used BAR's spare car after his racing car's engine failed. A lack of grip left Verstappen in 20th. Minardi's Marc Gené and Gastón Mazzacane qualified at the back of the grid in places 21 to 22; both drivers were 2.4 and 2.6 seconds slower than the pole sitter, respectively, Minardi's best qualifying performance from first position up to that point in the season.

### Post-qualifying

After qualifying but before the warm-up session, the FIA safety delegate, Charlie Whiting, announced that he had banned practcse starts at the pit lane exit after observing driver behaviour in the area during the Saturday free practice sessions.

### Qualifying classification

## Warm-up

The drivers took to the track at 09:30 Central European Summer Time (UTC+2) for a 30-minute warm-up session, in sunny weather. Overnight rain left the asphalt surface slippery, but the sun dried it up as the session went; lap time were significantly slower than the previous two days. To begin the session, teams fitted wet tyres on their cars before switching to dry compound tyres when lap times decreased and the circuit's condition improved. Drivers modified their car's setups and some reported issues. Häkkinen set the fastest time of 1:19.329 with two minutes remaining. Coulthard was second in the other McLaren, with Michael Schumacher third and Trulli fourth. Michael Schumacher drove both the spare and race Ferraris, adjusting settings to the changing track conditions. Some drivers lost control of their cars on the slippery track, and Frentzen damaged a semi-axle by going off the circuit.

## Race

The 72-lap event had a distance of 306.072 km (190.184 mi), and began before 112,112 spectators at 14:00 local time. The weather for the race was dry and sunny; the air temperature ranged from 27 to 28 °C (81 to 82 °F) and the track temperature was between 38 and 39 °C (100 and 102 °F); conditions were expected to remain consistent throughout the race with 40% chance of rain. Every driver began on the Extra Soft dry compound tyres. Driver tyre usage and car setup modifications affected compound wear. Autosport wrote that "the key to the French GP was always going to be the start" due to the short pit lane straight leading into a fast left-hand corner rather than having a heavy braking zone. It noted "For the drivers in the even numbered grid positions, on the inside line, it's always a bit difficult. The cars on the outside have a better run at the first turn, and can gain ground by sweeping across in front of those caught on the inside." Coulthard removed the rear aerofoil tailplane to reduce the effect of an understeer and increase his top speed.

Coulthard made the best start of the leading runners, but Michael Schumacher moved left and into his path to retain the lead. Coulthard then moved to his right but was blocked and slowed to avoid a collision, allowing Barrichello past for second. Salo had the strongest start in the field, going from twelfth to ninth by the end of the first lap, while Irvine fell four positions and Ralf Schumacher dropped from fifth to seventh. At the first lap's completion, the top six drivers were Michael Schumacher, Barrichello, Coulthard, Häkkinen, Villeneuve, and Frentzen. Michael Schumacher began to pull away from the field, setting successive fastest laps. Barrichello began delaying the McLaren drivers to help his teammate extend his lead. On lap two, Trulli overtook Ralf Schumacher for seventh and Alesi passed Heidfeld for 14th. On the following lap, Ralf Schumacher retook seventh from Trulli. Heidfeld lost a further position to Fisichella on lap four. Ralf Schumacher began challenging Frentzen for sixth on the fifth lap.

Michael Schumacher increasing his advantage over Barrichello to five seconds by lap ten. Button took tenth position from Irvine on lap twelve, while Heidfeld collided with Alesi at the Adelaide hairpin while attempting to overtake Fisichella, sending his teammate into a spin and dropping to 18th. Button overtook Salo for ninth on lap 13. Zonta, who was running 17th, experienced braking troubles on lap 17 and struck the tyre barriers, forcing him to retire from the Grand Prix. By the 18th lap, Michael Schumacher had extended his lead over Barrichello to 6.2 seconds, who continued to hold up Coulthard in third. Häkkinen was 1.4 seconds behind his teammate but pulling away from Villeneuve in fifth. Herbert retired three laps later after making an unscheduled pit stop due to a gearbox issue that gradually lost his use of all gears. On the same lap, Alesi became the first driver to pit for tyres.

Trulli became the first front runner to pit on lap 21, followed by Villeneuve, Frentzen and Ralf Schumacher. On lap 22, Coulthard passed Barrichello on the outside for second place exiting the Adelaide hairpin. Coulthard entered the hairpin wide and gained enough speed to overtake Barrichello, who did not swerve into him. Häkkinen, Button, Michael Schumacher, Coulthard and Barrichello all made pit stops over the following three laps. Verstappen retired at the side of the pit straight on lap 26 due to gearbox issues. Coulthard was able to close up to Michael Schumacher to less than a second by lap 32, having recorded the race's fastest lap, a 1:19.479 on the 28th lap; the latter was struggling with his tyres in the warm climate. He on the outside attempted to overtake Michael Schumacher on the inside two laps later but Schumacher defended his position. Coulthard slowed to avoid a collision and gave Michael Schumacher the middle finger in his immediate anger. The manoeuvre allowed Häkkinen to close up on the pair. Mazzacane spun off at the third corner on the previous lap and retired. Wurz's brakes locked up entering turn 15, causing him to beach his car in the gravel trap and retire on lap 36. Button became the first driver to pit twice on lap 39.

Coulthard went to the inside of Michael Schumacher (who had heavily worn tyres) in the Adelaide hairpin as Schumacher steered wide to cover. After forcing Michael Schumacher into the outside verge of the corner exit, he took the lead on lap 40. Michael Schumacher's right front wheel made slight contact with Coulthard's left rear tyre exiting the hairpin. Michael Schumacher then promptly withstood Häkkinen's overtaking attempts. Frentzen and de la Rosa became the next two drivers to make pit stops on the same lap. Michael Schumacher and Häkkinen made pit stops for the second time on lap 43 and both emerged in third and fourth respectively. Barrichello's pit stop on the 44th lap lasted 16.8 seconds and dropped him to fifth because his team had trouble fitting a cross threaded wheel nut on his right front tyre. This eliminated Barrichello from contention for the victory. De La Rosa retired in the pit lane with transmission failure after completing 45 laps. Coulthard entered the pit lane at the conclusion of the 46th lap for his final 7.9-second pit stop. He rejoined in the lead, three seconds ahead of Michael Schumacher.

After the front-runners finished their pit stops, the first six drivers on lap 48 were Coulthard, Michael Schumacher, Häkkinen, Barrichello, Villeneuve, and Trulli. On lap 52, towards the back of the field, Gené and Alesi collided, sending both cars spinning sideways. Both drivers maintained their respective positions. Further up, Ralf Schumacher passed Trulli at turn five for sixth. By lap 53, Häkkinen was less than a second behind Michael Schumacher and continued to battle him for second as his tyres degraded faster than the McLarens. Irvine overtook Diniz for twelfth position two laps later. On the 58th lap, Häkkinen was close behind Michael Schumacher and nearly outdragged him at the exit of Lycee corner. Michael Schumacher ran wide to hold off Häkkinen. Häkkinen passed Michael Schumacher on lap 59 after the latter drove wide when his rear wheels locked braking for the Adelaide hairpin. Michael Schumacher retired with a sudden engine failure on the same lap.

Coulthard slowed slightly because he felt his lead was safe. He crossed the finish line in 1'38:05.538, at an average speed of 187.100 km/h (116.259 mph), for his third victory of the season and eighth of his Formula One career. Häkkinen finished second 14.7 seconds later, ahead of Barrichello in third, Villeneuve in fourth, Ralf Schumacher in five, and Trulli the final points scorer in sixth. Frentzen in seventh held off Button in eighth place who was being closed up to Fisichella in ninth during the race's final laps. Salo, Diniz and Heidfeld followed in the next three positions, with Irvine, Alesi and Gené the final classified finishers.

### Post-race

The top three drivers collected their trophies on the podium and spoke at the press conference that followed. Coulthard described his race weekend as "exhausting" due to issues his team had to face. He also apologised for making hand motions at Michael Schumacher during his initial overtaking manoeuvre on him. Häkkinen expressed satisfaction to finish second and applauded his team's efforts. He also mentioned watching Michael Schumacher's racing lines and believing he might have passed him if he had not retired due to an engine failure. Barrichello said that Ferrari told him to slow in the race's closing stages since he had a 35-second lead over Villeneuve.

After Ferrari's victory at the previous race, their team principal Jean Todt, said that "we seemed to be in a strong position but, of course, it is the order at the finish that counts", while Michael Schumacher said that his car's tyres dropped in performance following his first pit stop. McLaren technical director Adrian Newey said that the pit stop strategy was crucial in winning the race: "The tyre wear did not spring any surprises on us and we were able to trust our estimations and co-ordinate the pit-stops to our best advantage." Villeneuve was happy to finish fourth and was surprised by his good start. Heidfeld, who collided with his teammate Alesi during the race, apologised for the collision. Ralf Schumacher said that he slowed to secure fifth place. Trulli described his race as "difficult" because of the hot temperatures but praised his mechanics for their work.

After the race, Coulthard's overtaking manoeuvres on Michael Schumacher drew much media attention. Coulthard accused Michael Schumacher of unsporting behaviour and dangerous driving, saying: "I had a clean run at Michael on the outside and equally I felt he drove me wide. You could say he has the right to do that because he has track position. I'm not arguing against that. I just don't think Michael is very sporting." Michael Schumacher later denied any misconduct, citing a similar incident at the 1999 Japanese Grand Prix in which Coulthard pushed him wide with no objections raised. He also admitted to not seeing Coulthard's hand gesture. Coulthard sought clarification with the FIA over such overtakes with a source from Formula One's governing body noting: "It was hard racing – they are racing drivers aren't they?" When asked by a journalist if Coulthard's gesture was unsporting and gave young racing fans the wrong impression, Mercedes' head of motorsport, Norbert Haug, replied: "You don’t understand, in motor-racing, that is a traditional gesture used to indicate to the driver ahead that you intend to overtake him in one lap’s time." According to GrandPrix.com, Coulthard's overtake showed that he "is ready to stand up to Michael and is not afraid of what will happen if Michael does not lift."

FIA president Max Mosley stated that Michael Schumacher's single swerving action at the start of the race was "more of a convention" agreed upon by drivers rather than a formal regulation, adding: "They are all grown men at the height of their profession. However, where we would get involved is if the move was totally outrageous and deemed to be dangerous." Coulthard said he interpreted the regulations to mean that a driver intentionally going across the track to block another racer deserved a penalty or disqualification. He stated that he would raise the subject at the drivers' meeting prior to the next , but not with Michael Schumacher directly. The consequence of the drivers' meeting was that Michael Schumacher would be allowed to continue swerving to protect the race lead at the start of events after an agreement that would have resulted in a ban on such tactics was not reached when Ralf Schumacher supported his brother.

The race resulted in Coulthard closing the World Drivers' Championship gap to Michael Schumacher to twelve points. Häkkinen remained third, six points clear of Barrichello. Fisichella remained in fifth place. McLaren's one-two finish cut Ferrari's lead in the World Constructors' Championship to six points. Williams had gained two points on Benetton, but they were still one point behind. Jordan maintained fifth place with eleven points with eight races remaining in the season.

### Race classification

Drivers who scored championship points are denoted in bold.

## Championship standings after the race

Drivers' Championship standings

Constructors' Championship standings

- Note: Only the top five positions are included for both sets of standings.

Formula One motor race held in 2000


Museum of Contemporary Art Chicago

The Museum of Contemporary Art (MCA) Chicago is a contemporary art museum near Water Tower Place in downtown Chicago in Cook County, Illinois, United States. The museum, which was established in 1967, is one of the world's largest contemporary art venues. The museum's collection is composed of thousands of objects of Post-World War II visual art. The museum is run gallery-style, with individually curated exhibitions throughout the year. Each exhibition may be composed of temporary loans, pieces from their permanent collection, or a combination of the two.

The museum has hosted several notable debut exhibitions including Frida Kahlo's first U.S. exhibition and Jeff Koons' first solo museum exhibition. Koons later presented an exhibit at the museum that broke the museum's attendance record. The current record for the most attended exhibition is the 2017 exhibition of Takashi Murakami work. The museums collection, which includes Jasper Johns, Andy Warhol, Cindy Sherman, Kara Walker, and Alexander Calder, contains historical samples of 1940s–1970s late surrealism, pop art, minimalism, and conceptual art; notable holdings 1980s postmodernism; as well as contemporary painting, sculpture, photography, video, installation, and related media. It also presents dance, theater, music, and multidisciplinary arts.

The current location at 220 East Chicago Avenue is in the Streeterville neighborhood of the Near North Side community area. Josef Paul Kleihues designed the current building after the museum conducted a 12-month search, reviewing more than 200 nominations. The museum was initially located at 237 East Ontario Street, which was originally designed as a bakery. The current building is known for its signature staircase leading to an elevated ground floor, which has an atrium, the full glass-walled east and west façades giving a direct view of the city and Lake Michigan.

## History

The Museum of Contemporary Art (MCA) Chicago was created as the result of a 1964 meeting of 30 critics, collectors and dealers at the home of critic Doris Lane Butler to bring the long-discussed idea of a museum of contemporary art to complement the city's Art Institute of Chicago, according to a grand opening story in Time. It opened in fall 1967 in a small space at 237 East Ontario Street that had for a time served as the corporate offices of Playboy Enterprises. Its first director was Jan van der Marck. In 1970 he invited Wolf Vostell to make the Concrete Traffic sculpture in Chicago.

Initially, the museum was conceived primarily as a space for temporary exhibitions, in the German kunsthalle model. However, in 1974, the museum began acquiring a permanent collection of contemporary art objects created after 1945. The MCA expanded into adjacent buildings to increase gallery space; and in 1977, following a fundraising drive for its 10th anniversary, a three-story neighboring townhouse was purchased, renovated, and connected to the museum. In 1978, Gordon Matta-Clark executed his final major project in the townhouse. In his work Circus Or The Caribbean Orange (1978), Matta-Clark made circle cuts in the walls and floors of the townhouse next-door to the first museum.

In 1991, the museum's Board of Trustees contributed \$37 million (\$ million today) of the expected \$55 million (\$ million) construction costs for Chicago's first new museum building in 65 years. Six of the board members were central to the fundraising as major donors: Jerome Stone (chairman emeritus of Stone Container Corporation), Beatrice C. Mayer (daughter of Sara Lee Corporation founder Nathan Cummings) and family, Mrs. Edwin Lindy Bergman, the Neison Harris (president of Pittway Corporation) and Irving Harris families, and Thomas and Frances Dittmer (commodities). The Board of Trustees then weighed architectural proposals from six finalists: Emilio Ambasz of New York; Tadao Ando of Osaka, Japan; Josef Paul Kleihues of Berlin; Fumihiko Maki of Tokyo; Morphosis of Santa Monica, Calif.; and Christian de Portzamparc of Paris. According to Chicago Tribune Pulitzer Prize-winning architecture critic Blair Kamin, the list of contenders was controversial because no Chicago-based architects were included as finalists despite the fact that prominent Chicago architects such as Helmut Jahn and Stanley Tigerman were among the 23 semi-finalists. In fact, none of the finalists had made any prior structures in Chicago. The selection process, which started with 209 contenders, was based on professional qualifications, recent projects, and the ability to work closely with the staff of the aspiring museum.

In 1996, the MCA opened its current museum at 220 East Chicago Avenue, which was the site of a former National Guard Armory between Lake Michigan and Michigan Avenue from 1907 until it was demolished in 1993 to make way for the MCA. The four-story 220,000-square-foot (20,000 m2) building designed by Josef Paul Kleihues, which was five times larger than its predecessor, made the Museum of Contemporary Art (MCA) Chicago the largest institution devoted to contemporary art in the world. The physical structure is said to reference the modernism of Mies van der Rohe as well as the tradition of Chicago architecture. The museum opened at its current location June 21–22, 1996, with a 24-hour event that drew more than 25,000 visitors.

## Exhibitions

### Past

In its first year of operation, the museum hosted the exhibitions, Pictures To Be Read/Poetry To Be Seen, Claes Oldenburg: Projects for Monuments, and Dan Flavin: Pink and Gold, which was the artist's first solo show. In 1969, the museum served as the site of Christo's first building wrap in the United States. It was wrapped in more than 8,000 square feet (700 m2) of tarpaulin and rope. The following year it hosted one-person shows for Roy Lichtenstein, Robert Rauschenberg, and Andy Warhol.

The MCA has also played host to the first American and solo exhibitions of prominent artists such as Frida Kahlo in 1978. Other exhibition highlights include the first solo museum shows of Dan Flavin, in 1967, and Jeff Koons, in 1988. In 1989, the MCA hosted Robert Mapplethorpe, The Perfect Moment, a traveling exhibition organized by the Institute of Contemporary Art in Philadelphia. Additional highlights of exhibitions organized or co-organized by the MCA include:

- Enrico Baj (1971)
- Chuck Close (1972)
- Lee Bontecou (1972)
- Richard Artschwager (1973)
- Thomas Kovachevich (1973)
- Robert Irwin (1975)
- Frida Kahlo (1978)
- Vito Acconci (1980)
- Magdalena Abakanowicz (1982)
- Lorna Simpson (1992)
- Beverly Semmes (1995)
- Mona Hatoum (1997)
- Tom Friedman (2000)
- Gary Simmons (2002)
- John Currin (2003)
- Rudolf Stingel (2007)
- David Bowie (2014)
- Doris Salcedo (2015)
- Kerry James Marshall (2016)
- Takashi Murakami (2017)
- Virgil Abloh (2019)
- Nick Cave (2022)

### Recent

In 2006, the MCA was the only American museum to host Bruce Mau's Massive Change exhibit, which concerned the social, economic, and political effects of design. Additional 2006 exhibitions featured photographers Catherine Opie and Wolfgang Tillmans as well as Chicago-based cartoonist Chris Ware. The 2008 Koons retrospective broke the attendance record with 86,584 visitors for the May 31 – show of September 21, 2008. This was the culminating exhibit of the 2008 fiscal year, which celebrated the 40th anniversary of the museum.

In 2009, the MCA presented Jeremy Deller's exhibition It Is What It Is: Conversations About Iraq. The exhibition was organized by the New Museum, and it was a new commission by the New Museum, New York; the Museum of Contemporary Art, Chicago; and the Hammer Museum, Los Angeles.

Co-organized by the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art and the Wexner Center for the Arts, the MCA presented Luc Tuymans from October 2010 – January 2011. Susan Philipsz: We Shall Be All was presented at the MCA February – June 2011. The Turner Prize-winning artist's sound exhibition featured protest songs and drew from Chicago's labor history. The exhibition Eiko & Koma: Time is Not Even, Space is Not Empty is the first series of stage performances and a gallery exhibition presented at the MCA. The Japanese-born choreographers and dance artists perform and exhibit at the MCA June – November 2011.

In 2014, the MCA was the only US venue to mount the David Bowie Is... exhibition, which broke previous attendance records for the museum. To date, the most attended exhibition is the 2017 Takashi Murakami: The Octopus Eats Its Own Leg exhibit, which broke the David Bowie Is... record set in 2014 with over 193,000 attendees.

Following David Bowie Is..., the MCA debuted the critically acclaimed exhibition Kerry James Marshall: Mastry in 2016. Mastry later traveled to the Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York, and the Los Angeles Museum of Contemporary Art. In 2017, the MCA curated a show by the Japanese artist Takashi Murakami which set attendance records, and in 2019 the museum launched a mid-career retrospective for the work of the American designer Virgil Abloh, a sometime collaborator of Murakami's.

In 2020, the MCA opened Duro Olowu:Seeing Chicago, a curated exhibition by Duro Olowu of over 350 artworks from Chicago which marked the first time the museum had hired a guest art curator.

In 2022, the MCA presented Nick Cave: Forothermore, the Chicago artist’s first career-spanning retrospective.

### Recurring programs

After a 10-year run, the exhibition series UBS 12x12: New Artists/New Work is moving from the second floor to the third floor, into a larger gallery space and will change its name to Chicago Works. The exhibition series will still feature Chicago-area artists. Rather than each artist being displayed for one month, each exhibition in the series will now be displayed for three months.

Starting in 2002, the MCA began commissioning artists and architects to design and construct public art for the front plaza. The goal of the program is to link the museum to its neighboring community by extending its programmatic, educational, and outreach functions. While artists have been exhibited intermittently on the MCA plaza since 2002, the summer 2011 plaza exhibit showcasing four works by Miami-based sculptor Mark Handforth marks a revitalization of the plaza project.

From October through May, the MCA hosts monthly Family Days, which feature artistic activities for all ages. Each summer, the museum hosts Tuesdays on the Terrace, a jazz performance series, and a Farmers Market on the MCA plaza on Tuesdays from June through October. Year round, the MCA offers a Tuesday evening series, In Progress, that explores the creative process, in addition to a Friday evening series led by local artists in the museum's public engagement space, the Commons.

## Performance

The MCA Stage has featured local, national, and international theater, dance, music, multimedia, and film performances. It is known as the "most active interdisciplinary arts presenter in Chicago" and partners with local community organizations for the co-presentations of performing arts.

Notable MCA Stage appearances include performances by Mikhail Baryshnikov, eighth blackbird, Peter Brook, Marie Chouinard, Merce Cunningham, Philip Glass, Martha Graham, Akram Khan, Taylor Mac, and Twyla Tharp.

In September 2022, the MCA Stage hosted the first annual Chicago Performs, a two-day festival of experimental dance, music, and theater that included admission to the museum and other related programs. The festival spotlighted three local artists whose multi-disciplinary performance pieces were shown within the museum in a series of ticketed and non-ticketed performances.

Every spring, MCA presents an annual suite of live, digital, and durational performance works in its On Stage series. Both Chicago Performs and On Stage are yearly programs at the Museum.

## Building

The five-storey limestone and cast-aluminum structure was designed by Berlin architect Josef Paul Kleihues. The building, which opened in 1996, contains 45,000 square feet (4,200 m2) of gallery space (seven times the space of the old museum), a theater, studio-classrooms, an education center, a museum store, a restaurant-café, and a sculpture garden. The MCA building was Kleihues's first American structure. Its construction cost US\$46.5 million (\$ million today). The sculpture garden, which is 34,000 square feet (3,200 m2), includes a sculptural installation by Sol LeWitt and sculptures by George Rickey and Jane Highstein. The floor plan of both the building and the sculpture garden is a square, on which the proportions of the building is based.

The building's main entrance, which is accessed by scaling 32 steps, uses both symmetry and transparency as themes for its large central glass walls that compose the majority of both the east and west façades of the building. Two additional entrances—into the education center and into the museum store—are located on either side of the main staircase. The monumental staircase with projecting bays and plinths that may be used as the base for sculpture is reminiscent of the propyleia of the Acropolis in Athens. The main level entry hall has an adjacent 55-foot (16.8 m) atrium that connects it to a restaurant in the rear of the building. Two galleries for temporary exhibitions flank the atrium. The stairwell in the northwest corner is often cited as the buildings most interesting and dynamic artistic feature. The elevated views of Lake Michigan are considered to be a rewarding feature of the building. The building's 56-foot (17.1 m) glass facade sits atop 16 feet (4.9 m) of Indiana limestone. The building is known for its hand-cast aluminum panels adjoined to the facade with stainless steel buttons. The building has two two-story gallery spaces and a smaller one-story gallery space on the second floor. The third floor has a gallery and exhibition space in its northwest section, and the fourth floor has two large galleries, an exhibition space on the west side of the building, and a gallery in the southwest section.

The museum has a 296-seat multi-use theater with a proscenium-layout stage. The seats are laid out in 14 rows with two side aisles. The stage is 52 by 34 feet (16 m × 10 m) and elevated 36 inches (0.91 m) above the floor level of the first row of seats. The house has a 12 degree incline. The stage has three curtains and four catwalks. For its 50th anniversary in 2017, the museum unveiled a \$16 million renovation by architects Johnston Marklee, which redesigned 12,000 square feet (1,100 m2) within the existing footprint of the original Joseph Paul Kleihues design.

In 2017, the MCA commissioned architects Johnston Marklee to redesign select public spaces of the museum to create three major offerings: Marisol, the ground-floor destination restaurant with an immersive art environment by international artist Chris Ofili; a social engagement space called the Commons on the second floor with an installation by Pedro y Juana; and a new third floor with classrooms and a flexible meeting space that puts learning at the very center of the museum. This major \$16-million renovation converted 12,000 square feet (1,100 m2) of interior space and coincided with the MCA's 50th anniversary.

### Critical review

Complaining that the structure has a more fortress-like exterior than the museum's earlier home, Kamin viewed the architectural attempt as a fumbled work. However, he considered the interior to be serene and contemplative in a manner that complements the contemporary art and compact and organized in a manner that is an improvement on the more traditional mazelike museums. Comparing the building to the Sullivan Center and the Art Institute of Chicago Building, Kamin describes the museum as an homage to two of Chicago's architectural influences: Ludwig Mies van der Rohe and Louis Sullivan. Other critics also note the presence of Mies van der Rohe's spirit in the architecture.

Chicago-based architect Douglas Garofalo has described the building as stark, intimidating and "incongruous with contemporary sensibilities". The interior atrium, which the architect claims links the city to the lake is part of a transcendent space that benefits from the sunlight that enters through the high glass walls. The building is said to be designed to separate the art from other distracting services and functions of the venue. Kamin was also pleased with the separate entrances on the main floor for the museum store and accessibility entrances.

## Mission and vision

MCA’s mission statement describes itself as “an innovative and compelling center of contemporary art where the public can experience the work and ideas of living artists, and understand the historical, social, and cultural context of the art of our time.” In keeping with the museum’s vision of a creative and diverse future, MCA is a leader in collecting works by historically underrepresented artists “with rates more than twice the national average for the work of women (25 percent of acquisitions), four times the national average for Black American artists (almost 10 percent), and seven times the national average for the work of Black American female artists (3.6 percent).”

Announced by the Chicago Tribune in June 2011, the MCA initiated the process of reinventing its identity with new curators, a new floor plan, and a new vision. MCA Director Madeleine Grynsztejn stated the museum sought to be 50/50 artist-activated/audience-engaged. The main floor's north and south galleries present exhibitions showcasing the museum's permanent collection and work by post-emerging contemporary artists. The third floor is for the Chicago Works series. The fourth floor has gallery spaces for the MCA Screen and MCA DNA series, while the main barrel-vaulted galleries is for special exhibitions.

## Collection

The museum's collection consists of about 2,700 objects, as well as more than 3,000 artist's books. The collection includes works of art from 1945 to the present.

Former MCA Chief Curator Elizabeth A. T. Smith provided a narrative of the museum's collection. She says the collection has examples of late surrealism, pop art, minimalism, and conceptual art from the 1940s through the 1970s; work from the 1980s that can be grouped under postmodernism; and painting, sculpture, photography, video, installation, and related media current artists explore.

### Notable works

- Study for a Portrait, 1949, by Francis Bacon
- Les merveilles de la nature (The Wonders of Nature), 1953, René Magritte
- Polychrome and Horizontal Bluebird, 1954, by Alexander Calder
- In Memory of My Feelings - Frank O'Hara, 1961, by Jasper Johns
- Retroactive II, 1963, by Robert Rauschenberg
- Jackie Frieze, 1964, by Andy Warhol
- Untitled, 1970, Donald Judd
- Untitled Film Still, \#14, 1978, by Cindy Sherman
- Farmer's Dream, 1980, by Richard Hunt
- Rabbit, 1986, by Jeff Koons
- Cindy, 1988, by Chuck Close
- Presenting Negro Scenes Drawn Upon My Passage through the South and Reconfigured for the Benefit of Enlightened Audiences Wherever Such May Be Found, By Myself, Missus K.E.B. Walker, Colored, 1997, by Kara Walker

During the 2008 fiscal year the MCA celebrated its 40th anniversary, which inspired gifts of works by artists such as Dan Flavin, Alfredo Jaar, and Thomas Ruff. Additionally, the museum expanded its collection by acquiring the work of some of the artists it presented during its anniversary celebration such as Carlos Amorales, Tony Oursler, and Adam Pendleton. In 2022, collector and entrepreneur Dimitris Daskalopoulos gifted to the MCA Chicago 100 works from the D.Daskalopoulos Collection. The Museum acquired joint ownership of the pieces with the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum.

## Operations

### Governance

The board of trustees is composed of 6 officers, 16 life trustees, and more than 46 trustees. The current board chair is Cari B. Sacks.

### Directors

- 1998–2008: Robert Fitzpatrick
- 2008–present: Madeleine Grynsztejn

### Staff

The museum has a director, who oversees the MCA's staff of about 100. The museum operates with three programming departments: Curatorial, Performance, and Learning and Public Programs. The curatorial staff consists of James W. Alsdorf Chief Curator René Morales, Manilow Senior Curator Jamillah James, Marilyn and Larry Fields Curator Carla Acevedo Yates, Curator of Performance Tara Aisha Willis, Pamela Alper Associate Curator Bana Kattan, and Assistant Curator Jadine Collingwood.

### Visitors

The museum is closed Mondays and is open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Wednesdays through Sundays, with extended hours of operation on Tuesdays until 9 p.m. While the museum has no mandatory admission charge, suggested admission is \$15 for adults and \$8 for students, teachers and seniors. Admission is free for MCA members, members of the military and all youth 18 and under. It currently provides free admission to Illinois residents every Tuesday. During the summers, the museum provides free outdoor Tuesday Jazz concerts. In addition to art exhibits, the museum offers dance, theater, music, and multidisciplinary arts. The programming includes primary projects and festivals of a broad spectrum of artists presented in performance, discussion, and workshop formats.

### Funding

The museum operates as a tax-exempt non-profit organization, and its exhibitions, programming, and operations are member-supported and privately funded.

In 2020, the museum's endowment was at \$127 million. In 2009, it reported \$17.5 million in both operating income, 50% of which came from contributions, and operating expenses. Contributions were received from individuals, corporations, foundations, government entities, and fundraising. In 2016, the museum reported \$23 million in both operating income and operating expenses. 60.3% came from contributions.

## See also

- Chicago architecture
- Visual arts of Chicago
- List of museums and cultural institutions in Chicago
- List of contemporary art museums
- MCA Stage
- Contemporary art galleries in the United States
- Museums established in 1967
- 1967 establishments in Illinois
- Buildings and structures completed in 1967

Art museum in Chicago, Illinois