Orbital Space Tourism: Where Are We?
A year and a half ago, Virgin Galactic went public. Since then, the company has generated no “significant revenue”, nothing in the past two quarters, and has pushed the start of their commercial suborbital tourism service to 2022.
Ever since NASA’s plans for commercial LEO development were unveiled in 2019, companies have been eager to cater to government customers in orbit. However, given the very high CAPEX and R&D costs required, combined with these ongoing delays, we must ask, “Are we any closer to a commercialized LEO ecosystem shuttling people on a regular schedule to orbit? What will this ecosystem look like and what will drive it forward?”
NSR’s Space Tourism & Travel Markets, 2nd Edition report forecasts the opportunity for orbital space travel & tourism services to grow to over $555 million annually by the end of the decade, representing a $4.8 billion cumulative opportunity between 2020-2030. Launch is the near-term focus, but there is a growing ecosystem of service providers, aiming to broker flights, and even, long-term, offer hosted modules in orbit. By 2030, NSR forecasts that 61% of all orbital tourism revenues are expected to come from service providers.
It should be no surprise that government customers and funding are driving the developing orbital travel & tourism industry. Launch is the main service, and the high costs of developing human-rated vehicles bars most players from entry. Additionally, as commercial players draw on the heritage and expertise from the public sector, the main opportunity in the near-term will be in commercial launch for astronaut crews, such as SpaceX’s successful Crew-1 liftoff back in November. Space agencies from Member States of the ISS are still planning to have crews until the orbital laboratory is retired and thus offer the most ‘stable’ roster of flights.
However, while many nascent industries often find themselves tethered solely to government anchor tenant customers, the commercialization of orbital travel is already underway. SpaceX is planning to launch the first civilian crew later this year, and Axiom Space has booked flights for both tourists and their own private astronauts over the next few years. At the same time, Space Adventures, the longstanding ticket broker who facilitated the first tourist flights to the ISS, purchased more trips on the Russian Soyuz, set to fly in 2023.
Given the high price tag of $55 million per ticket, NSR sizes the addressable market of willing and able passengers to only ~50 people per year, growing as prices drop through subsidy or competition. However, there remains one additional opportunity that could literally expand the market: space stations.
Space Stations are Next
Besides launch, accommodation via an orbiting platform is the next main opportunity for orbital travel & tourism. One idea has included the possibility of turning the ISS over to the commercial sector, though timelines and decisions have shifted several times on that front.
Additionally, companies like now-defunct Bigelow Aerospace, the recent astronaut-led Axiom Space, and newly-announced Orbital Assembly have invested considerable funding and efforts into the development of orbiting platforms.
While tourism is one potential service, most companies involved have indicated a strategy of focusing on the private research sector, of allowing companies an opportunity for science & engineering on-orbit.
Orbital travel & tourism is an exciting market opportunity, but like all nascent industries, it is crucial to consider the challenges ahead. Government customers will likely continue to take priority for tech and mission development in the near-term, and there have been ample delays and failed tests so far in this market. Launch costs are very unlikely to come down significantly, except through government subsidy or if supply grows significantly. Commercial orbital platforms and hotels are very ambitious, unproven, use cases, that are very sensitive to changing market dynamics; remember, Bigelow Aerospace laid off its entire workforce last year.
However, government customers are driving the development of the commercial sector, and that is already expanding to serving a wider commercial market. Investment and demand will continue to grow, especially as technological capabilities and competition improve. Orbital tourism has a long road ahead, but the diversifying opportunity and growing capability should help to drive the market forward.
Let us know you visited!
We like to hear from those who have been touched by Jaymun's life.
Send an email to: email@example.com and we'll post it here.
Or respond to Jennifer's memory book request.
We appreciate Jaymun's world-wide "family" ...lets support each other.
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 07:52 -
It was so wonderful to read that Jaymun will be going home soon. The
pictures of Jaymun sitting up and smiling are heartwarming and seeing him
with his brothers and sister just overwhelms one with emotion. What an
incredible family you have. We continue to check the site and keep Jaymun
and the entire Kaat family in our prayers.
Michele S and Family in IL
Mon, 22 Jan 2007 21:24 -
It's Amiyah's family from the PICU checking in on your progress before I go to bed.
Was thinking about you and thought I would quick check your site. I am very glad to hear that you are doing well.
I agree w/your mother that their are some very dedicated nurses that work in the PICU that go above and beyond.
We had the pleasure of having Lucretia a few times and she did a wonderful job w/Amiyah.
Anyway....glad to see those prayers are working in your favor.
We'll keep them coming;)
Sat, 20 Jan 2007 20:08 -
Hi Guys, sure was happy to see that Jaymun is doing better. Loved to see his new pictures, we wait for those and his sweet smile.
Know that our thoughts and prayers are with you all daily and hang in there, you guys are doing great.
All our love for Amberg, Wisconsin - Aunt Bev, Uncle Bruce, Brenda, Allie and BJ
Sat, 20 Jan 2007 20:59 -
Our family in IL is sending prayers for your little guy! What a handsome little one!
We caught on to Jaymun's story from the link in the Night Sky Murals website and just wanted you to know that
all 7 of us are thinking of him today and praying for his health and well-being!
Fri, 19 Jan 2007 12:31 -
I think there is no nobler profession on this earth than those who work selflessly for the health and well being of little babies.
Lucretia is certainly a blessing. My sister is an oncology nurse and has always wanted to be – it’s her calling.
I am so pleased with Jaymun’s recovery. Blessings -
Fri, 19 Jan 2007 17:14 -
I had no idea what you all were going through until earlier today when I talked to Dave. After we got off the phone I couldn't pull myself away from the website. I've sat and cryed and laughed for the last 3 hours while reading the journal & watching the videos.
I just wanted you all to know that our thoughts and prayers are with you..
Heather Love & everyone at EcoWater, Joliet, IL
Fri, 19 Jan 2007 11:15 -
I love reading Jaymun's Journal everyday! That Big Smile of his makes my day!
God Bless you and your family. I pray everyday he will be cured and come home.
Tamie Emmer Sheboygan, WI
Wed, 17 Jan 2007 20:25 -
Dear Kaat Family,
What a wonderful update to read today! It's so good to see pictures of Jaymun smiling that beautiful smile. His eyes just sparkle.
Jaymun may not understand the test he is being put through now, but your journals, photos & video will surely help him to recognize the powerful love & devotion of his family when he is older.
Kudos to the wonderful doctors and nurses that are taking such good care of him. May they continue to treat Jaymun with their knowledge, unwavering dedication & gentle hands.
Dave & Jennifer, stay strong & know that thousands are praying for you all. Your children are richly, richly blessed to have such caring, devoted parents.
Many blessings, Jenny R & family
Wed, 17 Jan 2007 09:21 -
What an amazing test God has put your family through – obviously He knew that you were (individually and cumulatively) strong enough to handle whatever comes your way. I have been sending my prayers for Jaymun since just before Devon’s bone marrow went in – I originally linked from Jody’s blog. Your posts are an amazing record of your last six months, and I am sure it will be beneficial to Jaymun when he is older, and he can understand what he went through as such a young boy.
Thank you for opening up your thoughts, hopes and fears to the world and letting me experience such strength, faith and love.
Claire E Smith - New Zealand
Tue, 16 Jan 2007 11:50 -
I check your website almost daily for updates. I too believe that we serve a God who is capable of all things.
Your blog is a reminder to me to treasure the little things and recognize the obstacles in my life for what they are (speed bumps to slow me down).
I keep your family and Jaymun in my prayers daily.
I am praying for a cure so miraculous that even the most entrenched scientific mind can only attribute it to the great physician.
May God continue to bless you.
Sarah M, Louisiana
Mon, 15 Jan 2007 07:18 -
Dear Jaymun and family,
Karen H. told me about your situation and I clicked on the site.
I pray that you-Jaymun will successfully have the bone marrow
transplant and heal completely.
I pray for all of your family to stay healthy and strong through the
It is very hard to see your child so ill, however, please continue
to lean on Our Great Healer-The Triune God.
In Christ, Marie W Parkston SD
Fri, 12 Jan 2007 10:39 -
Brilliant vid. I smiled all the way through! The light grunting near the start reminded me of Beavis and Butthead! (No offence!)
Its heartwarming to see him doing so well x
Fri, 12 Jan 2007 17:14 -
Just came across your blog. Jaymun is the cutest little boy!!!
My family will be praying for yours and for you to continue to have the strength to make it through this.
Isn't it wonderful to know that we have God to help us through those tough times in life!
It sounds like you have wonderful children!!!!
Your story makes me realize how much more I need to treasure my girls.
Thanks for all your encouragement to your readers.
I look forward to seeing your little blessing make a full recovery.
The White's from Dalton, Georgia
Wed, 10 Jan 2007 11:40 -
The salon is always buzzing when there is a new entry about Jaymun. We were so thrilled and relieved when things started turning around for him. We continue to pray and check your sight daily. Take care and we can’t wait to see you guys.
The Salon Girls
Tue, 09 Jan 2007 15:23 -
Hello Dave, Jennifer, Jaymun, and family!
This is Jessie again.....your RN from the PICU. I check in to your website daily for updates and I think about you guys very
frequently!!! I am so thrilled and so relieved to see how wonderfully he is progressing. The power of prayer is truly
powerful! I continue to say an extra prayer in my daily prayers for Jaymun and the rest of your family!!
Your journal entries are amazing....all of them. Your words are so poignant, so poetic, yet so true and powerful. I often sit here in
deep thought after reading each new entry. The lesson regarding “Habits of faith are more challenging than feats of faith”
pertinent to every day life! In short…I have read the 1-1-07 entry several times. Your words have once again reminded me to not just
read about His lessons….but live them. :-)
From my experience with the children who come through life-threatening situations such as Jaymun’s, the reality of the
little challenging aspects of life can be just as difficult to deal with. As you guys have already discovered, the road to recovery is
very long and very exhausting. Stay strong, have faith, and continue to lean on Him. You are all amazing people, and I know you will
continue to do just that. :-)
As always, I will continue to pray for Jaymun and the rest of the Kaat family! Thank you for allowing me to be a part of Jaymun’s
care. Keep the faith! :-)
P.S…..Thank you SO much for the beautiful and VERY meaningful gift bag! You guys obviously put a lot of thought into it….and opening
that bag totally made my Christmas! Once again, I can’t express how wonderful you guys are! Thank you!