“Babies have big heads and big eyes, and tiny little bodies with tiny little arms and legs. So did the aliens at Roswell! I rest my case.” William Shatner, Star Trek.
Did aliens actually create humans? Nope, I don’t think so. It would more be like humans created aliens. I have followed the whole alien question for years. I have seen the videos of the spacecraft and read a number of books about aliens. I’ve seen almost all of the websites on the subject and have yet to be truly convinced that aliens are real.
Humans had a great struggle to get to where we are today.
We struggled to even stay alive as a species. There was a point where some of the earliest humans almost ceased to exist; we were almost as extinct as the dinosaurs. It was a struggle for us to exist and in some ways, life is still a struggle for humans.
The whole idea of aliens is firstly absurd because there is so real little evidence for aliens; about as much evidence for aliens as there is for God. I have been waiting to be convinced about aliens but all the so-called evidence is so flimsy that I am just not that gullible to buy it.
Whether it is religion or aliens, they are in the same realm of fantasy to me; it would be nice to suggest that aliens helped build the pyramids in Egypt and in Central America. Teotihuacan would be real easy to wrap it in a nice neat little package if aliens were to have helped in some way to have created it.
All of the questions of early life on the earth could be answered without having to involve humans at all. One of the biggest mysteries in all of South America is Tiahuanaco. Tiahuanaco is over 2 miles above sea level and has been built out of some huge and massive stones. One of the more amazing structures is the Gateway of the Sun.
The Gateway of the Sun is a one-piece solid granite 10-ton megalith.
Some people just can not wrap their minds around the fact that this is man-made. For some, it’s easier to think it is either alien made or made with the help of aliens. The fact is that humans are resourceful and are capable of so many things including creating the Gateway of the Sun.
Are you familiar with the Nazca lines?
If so then you’ll know that these lines go for miles and some lines form birds and other creatures. There are some who would suggest that there is a drawing of an astronaut. This astronaut is a representation, they say, of a real astronaut that they had come into contact with. Either that or they were just as imaginative as many other cultures.
No, as exciting as the prospect is, aliens did not create humans but as I said before humans created aliens.
Orbital Space Tourism: Where Are We?
A year and a half ago, Virgin Galactic went public. Since then, the company has generated no “significant revenue”, nothing in the past two quarters, and has pushed the start of their commercial suborbital tourism service to 2022.
Ever since NASA’s plans for commercial LEO development were unveiled in 2019, companies have been eager to cater to government customers in orbit. However, given the very high CAPEX and R&D costs required, combined with these ongoing delays, we must ask, “Are we any closer to a commercialized LEO ecosystem shuttling people on a regular schedule to orbit? What will this ecosystem look like and what will drive it forward?”
NSR’s Space Tourism & Travel Markets, 2nd Edition report forecasts the opportunity for orbital space travel & tourism services to grow to over $555 million annually by the end of the decade, representing a $4.8 billion cumulative opportunity between 2020-2030. Launch is the near-term focus, but there is a growing ecosystem of service providers, aiming to broker flights, and even, long-term, offer hosted modules in orbit. By 2030, NSR forecasts that 61% of all orbital tourism revenues are expected to come from service providers.
It should be no surprise that government customers and funding are driving the developing orbital travel & tourism industry. Launch is the main service, and the high costs of developing human-rated vehicles bars most players from entry. Additionally, as commercial players draw on the heritage and expertise from the public sector, the main opportunity in the near-term will be in commercial launch for astronaut crews, such as SpaceX’s successful Crew-1 liftoff back in November. Space agencies from Member States of the ISS are still planning to have crews until the orbital laboratory is retired and thus offer the most ‘stable’ roster of flights.
However, while many nascent industries often find themselves tethered solely to government anchor tenant customers, the commercialization of orbital travel is already underway. SpaceX is planning to launch the first civilian crew later this year, and Axiom Space has booked flights for both tourists and their own private astronauts over the next few years. At the same time, Space Adventures, the longstanding ticket broker who facilitated the first tourist flights to the ISS, purchased more trips on the Russian Soyuz, set to fly in 2023.
Given the high price tag of $55 million per ticket, NSR sizes the addressable market of willing and able passengers to only ~50 people per year, growing as prices drop through subsidy or competition. However, there remains one additional opportunity that could literally expand the market: space stations.
Space Stations are Next
Besides launch, accommodation via an orbiting platform is the next main opportunity for orbital travel & tourism. One idea has included the possibility of turning the ISS over to the commercial sector, though timelines and decisions have shifted several times on that front.
Additionally, companies like now-defunct Bigelow Aerospace, the recent astronaut-led Axiom Space, and newly-announced Orbital Assembly have invested considerable funding and efforts into the development of orbiting platforms.
While tourism is one potential service, most companies involved have indicated a strategy of focusing on the private research sector, of allowing companies an opportunity for science & engineering on-orbit.
Orbital travel & tourism is an exciting market opportunity, but like all nascent industries, it is crucial to consider the challenges ahead. Government customers will likely continue to take priority for tech and mission development in the near-term, and there have been ample delays and failed tests so far in this market. Launch costs are very unlikely to come down significantly, except through government subsidy or if supply grows significantly. Commercial orbital platforms and hotels are very ambitious, unproven, use cases, that are very sensitive to changing market dynamics; remember, Bigelow Aerospace laid off its entire workforce last year.
However, government customers are driving the development of the commercial sector, and that is already expanding to serving a wider commercial market. Investment and demand will continue to grow, especially as technological capabilities and competition improve. Orbital tourism has a long road ahead, but the diversifying opportunity and growing capability should help to drive the market forward.