Has Russia decided to ditch Assad?
It is just a headline; and as we warned earlier this week, conjecture by Debka often has a political or propaganda slant. Yet behind its paywall, Debka is talking about Russia agreeing to get rid of President Assad. There is no mention of this anywhere else on mainstream media or social media, and until further comments start to surface from other sources such a move remains "conjecture". Talks over the future of Syria start in Vienna today. A series of maps published in yesterday's New York Times shows that Syrian Government forces have achieved limited success despite almost a month of Russian jets bombing Syrian rebel targets, and that ISIS continues to gain ground.

 

Oren Dorell

USA TODAY

Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting with counterparts from about a dozen countries, including Iran, to seek a diplomatic solution to end the Syrian civil war.

The fighting, now in its fifth year, has left 250,000 dead and displaced more than half of Syria’s population of 22 million, according to the United Nations. The discussions are taking place in Vienna on Thursday and Friday. For the first time, Iran is at the table.

Here are five things you need to know:

What will the talks achieve?

Not much in the short term. Kerry said Wednesday that finding a solution “is not going to be automatic,” but that talks may prevent Syria from being destroyed. The U.S. goal is to agree to a process that will lead to a caretaker government, elections and an end to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s rule. Russia and Iran, Assad’s main backers, say they agree in principle but they want Assad to play a part in the transition, which many Syrian opposition factions say is unacceptable.

What's the format of the talks and who will attend?

There will be several meetings starting Thursday, but the main event is a gathering Friday that will be the largest ever on Syria, according to the State Department. About a dozen countries will participate, including, the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Qatar, Lebanon and France, Britain and Germany. The European Union will also be there. Conspicuously absent are representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition.

Why is it such a big deal that Iran is there?

Iran is Assad's biggest supporter. The country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have sent military advisers to organize and coordinate his forces. The guards have sent their own fighters in addition to Shiite militias from Iraq and Afghanistan. Hezbollah, Iran's Shiite militia in Lebanon, is leading ground offensives there. Iran’s participation in the talks — which comes on the heels of a nuclear deal with world powers over the summer — is controversial because the Islamic Republic supports terrorists and insurgents across the region. But, Kerry said he hopes that Iran may play a crucial role in finding a political solution that leads to Assad’s departure and an end to the war.

Who is fighting (and supporting) whom in Syria?

The fighting, now in its fifth year, pits forces loyal to Assad against various rebel groups, including the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army, radicals and al-Qaeda affiliates. Assad’s main backers are Iran and Russia. Syrian opposition forces are supported by the United States, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf.

Turkey, which supports some Syrian rebel groups, has also attacked U.S.-backed Kurdish militants in Syria. The United States has been conducting airstrikes against Islamic State militants in eastern Syria. And Russia last month began airstrikes in Syria, which the U.S. and other international powers say are aimed mostly at anti-Assad rebel forces. Russia claims it's attacking the Islamic State and other terrorists.

Why should we care?

The war has left more than 250,000 dead and displaced half the country’s population, greatly contributing to the European migrant crisis. It also created a power vacuum that allowed Islamic State militants to seize large swaths of eastern Syria and western Iraq.

The United States is now fighting the militants from the air and last week lost a Special Forces soldier on the ground during a successful rescue of Islamic State prisoners in Iraq. With Russia conducting airstrikes against U.S.-backed rebels, there is an increased risk of a greater conflict between the two nuclear powers over Syria. Also, U.S. policy has been to seek Assad’s departure and limit Iran’s influence in Syria as well as cut its connection to Hezbollah. Allowing Iran to help design Syria’s future could instead result in a stronger Iranian influence across the region.