El Nino set to increase bushfires in Australia this summer
An official forecast for the 2015-2016 bushfire season reveals that there is an above average risk of bushfires this summer due to the developing El Nino, which is expected to exacerbate fire-prone weather, coupled with a below-average annual rainfall across successive years. &nbsp;Most at risk areas are Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia, including Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.&nbsp;
Vast areas of eastern, southern and western Australia are set to experience worse than normal bushfire conditions this summer, with the developing El Niño expected to significantly exacerbate fire-prone weather.

An official forecast of the 2015-16 bushfire season, compiled by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, has identified almost all of Victoria and New South Wales, including Sydney and Melbourne, as having “above normal” bushfire conditions.

Areas of Western Australia, including Perth, are also set for a heightened bushfire risk as summer arrives.

The forecast warns: “Such impacts will challenge the limited resources of the fire and land management agencies and have created the situation where each fire season is likely to be more demanding than the last, both in economic and human costs.”

The forecast, which is compiled with Bureau of Meteorology data, adds: “Many areas have consistently received below-average annual rainfall across successive years. This has produced a cumulative reduction in soil moisture levels and increasingly dry forests and grasslands.”

The dry conditions are set to be fuelled by the El Niño which is developing in the Pacific. The periodic climatic event causes a range of conditions but is generally associated with long dry spells in Australia.

A complicating factor to this year’s El Niño is warming waters in the Indian Ocean, which may bring rain to southern Australia.

But Dr Richard Thornton, chief executive of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, said it is likely that the El Niño conditions will be the “dominant factor” for the bushfire season.

“The expectation is that there will be an increased risk this year, driven by El Niño and the dry conditions,” he told Guardian Australia. “This is probably one of the biggest El Niños on record in terms of size.

“In areas on the eastern coast we are seeing higher than normal bushfire potential due to 10 years of below average rainfall. The soil is very dry, so once you have a couple of hot days a lot of fuel will dry very quickly.”

The forecast is based on the BoM’s long-range weather forecast, as well as information on fuel loads and precautionary burning. An “above normal” rating is given when it is expected local firefighting services will have to call in additional help from interstate or overseas to contain fires.

“Communities will have to be vigilant and aware that it will be more fire prone than normal,” Thornton said. “We are certainly seeing longer fire seasons, with a pattern of the seasons starting earlier and finishing later. Climate change is certainly playing a part.”

According to analysis by the BoM and the CSIRO, Australia is set to experience a greater number of days with severe fire danger due to climate change. Soil moisture is expected to fall by up to 15% in southern Australia in winter by 2090.