Trump’s Trade Appeals to China Still Left Farmers Reeling
Soybean, dairy and pig farmers saw their businesses dry up as the world’s most populous nation put tariffs on more than $70 billion of American products. Soybean exports fell to just $3.1 billion in 2018 from $12.2 billion in 2017. 
Many farmers and farm groups are conservative leaning, and they have generally been solid supporters of Mr. Trump, even when his actions threatened their export markets. But in the depths of the trade war — like last August, when China announced it was halting agricultural purchases from the United States and Mr. Trump threatened to tax every Chinese export to America — even the president’s more steadfast supporters began to waver.

Still, rather than back down, Mr. Trump has spent heavily to shore up the farm economy. The administration announced a total of $28 billion in aid for farmers in 2018 and 2019, funds the president says come from the tariffs levied on China. The administration secured another $23.5 billion to help American farmers through the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package passed in March.

There were indications last year that China might have been increasing purchases ahead of pivotal rounds of the trade talks. In September, traders reported 10 boatloads of soybeans being shipped from the United States to China ahead of negotiations that were scheduled for October. China also stepped up its purchases of American pork that month.

Chad E. Hart, an economist at Iowa State University, said Chinese purchases of American farm goods did pick up around the time of Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi’s meetings — which he called a “standard practice” that Beijing used to “signal momentum” in its discussions.

“It’s something we tend to see from China in any sort of negotiation,” Mr. Hart said.

Veronica Nigh, an economist at the American Farm Bureau, cautioned that fluctuations in the weekly data in any year could stem from a variety of factors — including weather and currency swings — making it difficult to pinpoint whether purchases were the direct result of the Chinese government’s accommodating Mr. Trump’s wishes.