2016 will signify the dawn of the new drone age

According to reports today, commercial drone usage will become much more prolific in 2016. As drones become more powerful and sophisticated over the next year, we are likely to see more companies like Amazon, Google, and Twitter filing patents for new drone applications to improve and grow their businesses. Consumer drone sales are also expected to rise, reaching four million by the end of 2015 and 16 million by 2020. While this year has seen regulatory rules introduced by the FAA for flying private and commercial drones, improvements in drone technology are likely to lead to more problems and further debate over data privacy, and legal and ethical issues, which will involve not only the FAA, but insurance companies, airlines and the general public. Currently, flouting the FAA rules on drones can result in the levying of substantial fines and possible custodial sentences, however this has failed to stem the number of near collisions and accidents with drones, which are also on the rise, despite tighter regulation.

If 2015 had anything to say about drones, it's this: They're coming.

Whether the topic was military drones operating overseas, or examining how to regulate the growing presence of private and commercial drones in U.S., drones emerged as the unavoidable topic about future tech. But, as recent events have proven, that future is "now."

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Law of the Sky: Drone Rules Take Off

The deliberations took longer than anyone might have guessed, but in December, just before the end of the year, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), along with a high-level advisory panel, finally introduced rules governing the use of drones in the U.S. And the rules are strict.

FAA Administrator Michael Huerta, left, at the Dept. of Transportation in Washington, Monday, Oct. 19, 2015, following the drone registration announcement. Credit:

The new rules will require drone owners, private and commercial, to register with the FAA's drone database before sending devices 0.55-55 pounds into the sky. Those who flout the law will face stiff penalties of up to $27,500 and up to $250,000 -- possibly even jail time. The FAA has posted a helpful list(opens in a new tab) of smaller drones that will not require registration, but all other drone owners have until February 19, 2016 to register (the rule officially went into effect on Monday).

"The FAA [new rule] is promising, in that it indicates the agency's willingness to loosen up their regulations around how close regulated drones can come to humans," says Joerg Lamprecht of Germany-based Dedrone(opens in a new tab), a company that creates systems for detecting and tracking small drones. "While there are still a lot of details to be worked out, this willingness should give delivery and other commercial drone usage companies hope of being able to use drones more broadly in the coming year."

For those unfamiliar with the drone debate, a set of stringent rules governing their use might seem like overkill. But as a number of reports (more on that later) throughout the year indicated, left unchecked, many drone users risk endangering public safety and invading the privacy of unsuspecting neighbors.

Of course, the new rules won't necessarily solve all of these issues in the coming year and beyond, but by making every drone user directly accountable, the chances of someone operating a drone recklessly will probably decrease.

One troubling aspect of the new registration system is how it treats the privacy of drone operators themselves. According to a report(opens in a new tab) from Forbes, the names and home addresses of those who register their drones will be available to the public. Predictably, this has led to some hand-wringing from some privacy advocates. In the meantime, most drone users interested in avoiding possible penalties will likely pony up the $5 registration fee and start flying.

Breaking news: Drones are everywhere

The beginning of the year started with concerns from some that drone-wielding paparazzi would make it even more difficult for celebrities and high-profile individuals to maintain some semblance of privacy. But those concerns were quickly eclipsed by the more important issue of some drone users flying their remote-controlled devices near airports.

Aside from the issue of hobbyists and photographers, with recent terrorism events hitting Paris and the U.S. alike, the notion of the drones being used to carry out terror attacks on commercial planes is no longer far-fetched.

Credit: PHYO HEIN KYAW, AFP

Potentially putting the lives of airline passengers in danger by invading the tightly controlled airspace of the airports, the increasing frequency of the airport incidents likely spurred the FAA to move even faster to enact the current set of rules.

The drone news got even crazier as some property owners turned to shooting drones(opens in a new tab) out of the sky as some have been seen as amateur spying devices that can peek in on neighbors with relative ease.

One of the more disturbing drone-related news reports emerged in November when a child named Oscar Webb in the UK lost his eye to a drone. The owner of the drone was attempting to land the device when he lost control of it and it hit a tree and collided with the child, who needed several surgeries before being fitted for a prosthetic eye.

Credit: Imaginechina

In that case, the drone used uncovered rotor blades, a design many brands avoid in order to prevent such accidents. But many other drones still use the uncovered rotor blade design so, for some, the danger of such accidents is still a concern.

"The challenge is that the rules are being written as the use of drones rises. Regulations and industry are being reactionary," says Mike Kelly, of ProSight Specialty Insurance, a firm that offers insurance(opens in a new tab) for drone operators.

"We can’t be reactionary in innovation. If we are going to change the landscape of industries with the use of drones, rules have to support that innovation. We have to be proactive so that stories like Oscar’s never happen."

Sky to doorstep: Drone deliveries coming

Finally, what seemed like fanciful science-fiction talk in 2013 moved a little closer to reality as Amazon revealed a prototype of its Prime Air delivery drone. The sleek, Amazon-branded flying machine was even shown carrying out a delivery to a customer. Using obstacle avoidance sensors, the drone used a small square compartment to transport a package to a waiting customer right on their front yard.

Credit: amazon

And while the logistics of the drone delivery system appear to work well in the video, the reality of drone deliveries is stilly likely years away as Amazon and its competitors, along with federal authorities, continue to navigate the legal and safety issues surrounding the road toward real drone deliveries.

"As drone technology develops, and drones can fly further and longer, with a greater load, it will likely prove more efficient and cost effective than traditional truck delivery, for many use cases," says Lamprecht.

"The concern will be managing drone traffic across our skies, especially in very crowded metropolitan areas. Drones may not deliver to large skyscrapers, but you may see them deliver to various logistic points in these cities from which they are then transported by car, bike or foot."

Taking the entirety of 2015 into account, it's hard not to see 2016 as the year that drones truly begin to come into their own as tools for startups and major players alike. No, we're not likely to see drone deliveries in 2016, but you can definitely expect more companies(opens in a new tab) to announce development of drone deliveries in the coming months.

The year ahead

For private users, the new FAA registration requirements will either cull the herd, leaving behind only the most serious drone users, or it could turn into a data privacy nightmare when the FAA's name and address database inevitably gets used for unsavory purposes.

A police drone in West Salem, Wis. on Sept. 16, 2015. Credit: Peter Thomson, La Crosse Tribune

Most importantly, 2016 will be the dawn of real robotics, now equipped with official, government-backed rules, entering the U.S. mainstream before autonomous cars or humanoid robot assistants find their way into the lives of most citizens.

Will 2016 see the first police force involved in a fatal incident involving a suspect and a department drone? Will a major airline suffer an accident due to the wayward flight path of an amateur drone? Is it really time for insurance companies to add a clause that includes injury from drones falling out of the sky? That we're even seriously asking such questions tells us that we're entering a new era in which drones are no longer toys, but a real technology poised to impact every aspect of our lives.

"Consumer drone sales are expected to reach four million this year, and 16 million by 2020," says Lamprecht. "Add to that their commercial use, and it's clear that drones are here to stay. We will continue to see drones get more powerful and sophisticated and, with that, their use cases will expand significantly."