Export potential for Chinese drones in areas of conflict

Chinese drone manufacturers have significant export potential in areas like Asia, the Middle East, South America and Africa, which cannot access US-made drones due to tight export controls imposed by US Congress, warns US drone expert Michael Boyle, adding that many Chinese-made drones have battlefield reconnaissance and missile-carrying capabilities. He believes drone competition will impact long-simmering conflicts and rivalries in disputed territories, such as the islands in the South-East China Seas. He also claims China and Russia are spending billions on drone technology research in what is seen as a potential threat to US superiority in technology, and warns against complacency on America's part. This coincides with the US Defence Secretary's revelation that the Pentagon is trying to galvanise the US defence establishment on considering a future high-tech conflict with China and Russia, arguing that only by reasserting US technological superiority can deterrence be maintained.

He noted the huge export potential for Chinese drones with tight export controls imposed by the US Congress on American drones. Chinese drones, he said, will have a good market in a large number of countries in Asia, the Middle East, South America and Africa, which are denied US technology.

Experts believe the UAVs will influence tussles in the South China Sea and East China Sea, with Japan likely to fly US-made Hawk drones.

"The area over the disputed islands in the South China Sea and the East China Sea is increasingly a prime area for drone competition. They have a number of advantages: Drones can identify changes on the ground in the islands and provide photographic evidence of military build-ups," Mr Boyle said.

The UAV technology is resetting the terms of global competition and quietly altering the rules of the game for many long-simmering conflicts and rivalries, he added.

"This is happening, in part, because few, if any, states will use drones in the way that the United States currently does, as a way to ruthlessly target militant networks in ungoverned territories."

Mr Boyle, in his interview with the VOA, also warned against complacency on the part of the US over its superiority in drone technology.

"While their current technology lags and, in some cases, merely imitates US drone models, global competitors such as China and Russia are now spending billions to catch up to the United States in research and development for drone technology," he said.

Indeed, Chinese drone maker Ehang Incorporated caused a stir at the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show last month, when it unveiled what is believed to be the world's first passenger drone.

Ehang described its Ehang 184 as "a manned drone capable of automatically carrying a passenger through the air, simply by entering a destination into its accompanying smartphone app".

The unveiling of the manned drone has led some US experts to ask if China will be putting soldiers in drones.

Others, however, have questioned the quality and capabilities of Chinese drones, with some saying those made in Israel and Russia are far superior in technology to the Chinese-made ones.

Some experts also questioned the safety standards of Chinese drones. "Drones are much more inherently dangerous than the cheap toys that China produces in large quantities and that are subject to very limited safety standards," the VOA quoted Mr Roger Clarke, of Australia-based Xamax Consultancy, as saying.