Warmer winters not motivating US public into action on climate change

New research by Duke and New York Universities published in Nature has found that 99% of Americans live in locations where average January temperatures have increased, while only 60% live in places where July temperatures have risen. Warmer winters without overwhelmingly hot summers have made climate change appear pleasant to the population and provide a “poor source of motivation” for the public to demand political action on climate change. However, by the end of the century this situation is due to change with 88% of Americans experiencing negative weather trends. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are brought under control, summer heat will intensify and sea levels will rise. The population will also face drought, health issues, extreme weather events and food security problems. 

A large majority of Americans have enjoyed more pleasant weather due to global warming over the past 40 years, research has found, but there is set to be an unpleasant sting in the tail as temperatures escalate further this century.

Vast areas of the contiguous US have warmed considerably during winters without becoming unbearably hot during the summers, making the climate generally more agreeable to the public. A new study has found that 80% of the American population lives in areas where the weather has become more “preferable” since 1974.

According to the analysis by Duke University and New York University, 99% of Americans live in places where the average January temperature has increased, with just 60% in locations where the July temperature has risen. Rainfall and humidity changes have also, largely, changed by a favorable degree for many Americans.

This shift to more temperate conditions means that “virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes,” the paper found.

Even though parts of Louisiana are being gobbled up by the sea, California has experienced its worst drought in a millennium and huge storms have smashed New York and New Orleans in recent years, most of the country has been basking in more bucolic weather changes.

But the situation is set for a radical reversal in the years ahead, the paper warns, with 88% of the US population set to experience temperature and weather trends that are extremely unfavorable by the end of the century.

If greenhouse gas emissions aren’t curbed, summer temperatures will start to rise rapidly, meaning far less comfortable living conditions for millions of Americans. The changes in the climate will also bring about cascading problems affecting ever-increasing numbers of people, including sea level inundation, drought, health problems, food insecurity and extreme weather events.

“If the winter temperatures were becoming much colder, you’d imagine a lot of Americans would find it troubling and unpleasant,” said co-author Patrick Egan, associate professor at New York University. “Here, it’s the opposite. The changes brought about by global warming have increased pleasant weather but when that switches, it may be too late for policy changes to make an impact.”

Rising temperatures have so far been a “poor source of motivation” for the public to vocally demand policy responses to climate change due to this trend, the research, published in Nature, contends.

“Policymakers cannot rely upon Americans’ experiences with the weather to catalyze change,” Egan said. “They will have to look elsewhere to convince them that this a major problem.”

Leading climate scientist Michael Mann, of Pennsylvania State University, said the study was a “solid analysis”. Mann wasn’t involved in the research.

“The population may have been lulled into complacency when it comes to the impacts of climate change by the fact that perceived weather conditions have improved with the moderate warming of the past century,” he told the Guardian.

“What this neglects, however, is all of the other damaging impacts that climate change has had on our lives which many people may not be perceiving in the passage of day-to-day weather variations, such as the impacts of increasingly devastating droughts, flooding, wildfires and coastal inundation.”

Mann said living conditions will deteriorate with further warming, meaning that the research’s findings are “sobering and they underscore once again the urgency of reducing global carbon emissions”.

The researchers used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess temperature changes to date and chart future alterations in the climate.

Temperature data was charted for each of the more than 3,000 counties in the lower 48 states, showing that, on average, winter temperatures have increased by 0.58C per decade, compared to just a 0.07C increase in summer.

Assumptions on what is considered “ideal” weather were taken from several economic reports which show population movement within the US. Climatic conditions, which is a leading reason for people moving locations, were isolated by controlling for factors such as relocating for a new job.

Large parts of Florida, which has experienced a population influx in recent years, are now considered more favorable due to warming temperatures. Areas of America’s southeast have also become much warmer in winter, and therefore more pleasant, although areas of New England and the northwest Pacific coast have largely been bypassed by this trend.

Last year was the warmest on record globally and the second warmest on record in the US, amid rising public concern over the issue.

Global temperatures have increased by around 1C over the past century, fueled by a rapid rise in carbon dioxide emissions from human activity. In America, a third of emissions come from electricity generation, with industry, transportation and agriculture also major contributors.