NIGERIA: Boko Haram leader dead? New 'spokesman'.
The last couple of days has seen reports that Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, might in fact be dead (and have been dead for a while).  Now Chad's President, Idriss Deby, has publically announced that not only does the terrorist group have a new spokesman (Mahamat Daoud) but that he is ready to negotiate with the Nigerian leadership. President Deby adds that he, for one, does not advise negotiating with the group and that it has already been effectively "decapitated". Whether Shekau is dead or alive is still far from clear, but meanwhile Boko Haram, or ISIS West Africa as it prefers to be called, is still on a killing spree.
Both groups have fought on. People gather at the site of a bomb explosion in Kano, Nigeria, in November 2014, in a region terrorised by Boko Haram. Credit: AP While analysts aren't sure what has happened to Shekau, or whether he has a successor, Boko Haram seems nowhere close to defeat. In recent months, the group has seen a resurgence, departing from its previous tactic of trying to rule a large chunk of north-eastern Nigeria and reverting to attacking civilian targets such as markets, often using teenage girls as suicide bombers. In a news conference on Wednesday, Mr Deby said Boko Haram had been "decapitated" after Shekau was severely injured in March during fighting in the Nigerian town of Dikwa​. Women react during a protest demanding security forces search harder for the schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram. Credit: Reuters

"Who told you that Shekau is alive today?" Mr Deby said rhetorically. Mr Deby didn't confirm Shekau's death, nor did he name a new leader. But he said a figure named Mahamat Daoud​ "speaks on behalf of the sect" and had called for negotiations with the Nigerian government. Australian MPs including shadow foreign minister Tanya Plibersek, centre, join the #bringbackourgirls campaign in May 2014. Credit: Andrew Meares "Certainly the fact that he has not been seen makes it credible or believable that he might have been replaced as leader," J. Peter Pham​, analyst with the Atlantic Council, said of Shekau, adding that Chadian intelligence was in a position to know about his fate. "On the other hand, they've had some spectacular failures in their intelligence as well," Mr Pham said. "There have been at least four or five times when the Nigerians have announced he'd been killed. If he reappeared tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised."

Abubakar Shekau has allegedly made a formal allegiance to Islamic State. Credit: AP The Chadian leader said Shekau had narrowly escaped being caught in March and Chadian forces knew at the time that he had been moved to the Nigerian town of Maiduguri​. "We informed our Nigerian friends, but unfortunately they did not want the Chadian forces to capture him," Mr Deby said, according to a transcript of the news conference. Troops from Chad have been part of a West African force combating Boko Haram. Daoud is a mystery figure, so far unknown to analysts, Yan St-Pierre, director of the Berlin-based Modern Security Consulting Group, said. Mr St-Pierre describes Boko Haram as a loose umbrella group consisting of complex factions, each with its own leader, which co-operate at times on ideological, business and criminal grounds. It would be more accurate to say the group is led by a committee or council than by one dominant figure, he added. It's not even clear whether Daoud speaks for one small faction or a broader group.

"Really the crux of the problem is that Boko Haram is not a homogeneous group," Mr St-Pierre said. "It's not a top-down organisation structured in response to one leader. There are many factions and many groups that work together for ideological or business interests." The group's fragmented nature and the mystery around Daoud make it difficult to assess whether negotiations with Boko Haram may take place – or whether Daoud's faction could even hold the bulk of Boko Haram fighters to any agreement, if he is indeed pursuing talks with the government. There have been many unsuccessful efforts to negotiate with Boko Haram. The latest was in October, when Nigeria's military announced a ceasefire accord after talks in Chad mediated by Mr Deby on the release of the kidnapped schoolgirls in return for Boko Haram prisoners. But the deal came to nothing. The man who claimed to be negotiating for Boko Haram at that point, Danladi Amadou, "turned out to be a complete fraud", Mr Pham said. Mr Deby said on Wednesday he would advise against negotiations with the terrorist group.