Paris climate talks call for decarbonised transportation by 2050

The Paris climate change agreement, reached late on Saturday, has wide-ranging global implications for all industrial sectors, however, for the purpose of this particular briefing, we focus on transportation. World leaders agreed during the conference to limit temperature rises to “1.5°C above the pre-industrial average” and one of the steps to achieving this has been recognised as the need to completely de-carbonise the global transportation system by 2050. According to the Independent: “This represents an enormous opportunity for clean energy technologies. Wind and solar will need to increase rates of implementation several times over, and the deployment of electric vehicles, along with alternative fuels for aviation and shipping, will need to accelerate sharply.”

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The Paris agreement on climate change refers to limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above the pre-industrial average, and includes a “ratchet mechanism” of five-yearly reviews of progress, commencing in 2019. Together, this powerful combination could lead to full decarbonisation by the middle of the century. The depth of the agreement beyond national politics is also important. Bill Gates committed to the largest green innovation fund ever, mayors of 1,000 cities committed to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2050, and the talk in business circles was all about opportunity, rather than cost.

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Beginning in 2016, leaders will have to begin to live up to their pledges. If we are to limit temperature rise to 1.5C, delay by even a single year will be costly. The world is already at 1C, and the carbon budget (the amount of atmospheric carbon we can emit before reaching 1.5C) is half what is allowable under a limit of 2C. In a very short time we will be out of carbon budget to stay below 1.5C, so regardless of how fast we limit fossil fuels, we will need to invest in third-way technologies to capture CO2 from the atmosphere.

A world committed to a 1.5C limit will need to phase out the burning of coal before 2030, and to have decarbonised transport systems before 2050. This represents an enormous opportunity for clean energy technologies. Wind and solar will need to increase rates of implementation several times over, and the deployment of electric vehicles, along with alternative fuels for aviation and shipping, will need to accelerate sharply.

Paris climate talks in pictures Show all 12 1 / 12 Paris climate talks in pictures Paris climate talks in pictures A man is covered with a multi-coloured banner with the message, "Climate" as environmentalists attend a demonstration near the Eiffel Tower in Paris, France, during the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) that meets in Le Bourget, December 12, 2015 Reuters Paris climate talks in pictures French President Francois Hollande (C) and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius (R) applaud after a statement at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. The years-long quest for a universal pact to avert catastrophic climate change neared the finish line today with conference host France announcing that the final draft had been completed in the early hours of the morning. Getty Paris climate talks in pictures US Secretary of State John Kerry (C) speaks with China's Special Representative on Climate Change Xie Zhenhua (R) and officials at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. The years-long quest for a universal pact to avert catastrophic climate change neared the finish line today with conference host France announcing that the final draft had been completed in the early hours of the morning. Getty Paris climate talks in pictures Delegates and members of NGO's read and work on copies of 'The adoption of the Paris agreement' is pictured after the announcement of the final draft by French Foreign Affairs minister Laurent Fabius at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. The years-long quest for a universal pact to avert catastrophic climate change neared the finish line with conference host France announcing that the final draft had been completed in the early hours of the morning Getty Paris climate talks in pictures UN climate chief Christiana Figueres (C) speaks with French President Francois Hollande (L), United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (2ndL) and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius (R) after a statement at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. The years-long quest for a universal pact to avert catastrophic climate change neared the finish line today with conference host France announcing that the final draft had been completed in the early hours of the morning Getty Paris climate talks in pictures A Swiss Dominican priest poses with activists dressed as polar bears as activists gather for a demonstration to form a giant red line at the Avenue de la Grande armee boulevard in Paris on December 12, 2015, as a proposed 195-nation accord to curb emissions of the heat-trapping gases that threaten to wreak havoc on Earth's climate system is to be presented at the United Nations conference on climate change COP21 in Le Bourget, on the outskirts of Paris. Getty Paris climate talks in pictures Activists hold up a giant banner reading 'Climate justice' by association 'ourpowercampaign' during a demonstration near the Arc de Triomphe at the Avenue de la Grande armee boulevard in Paris on December 12, 2015, as a proposed 195-nation accord to curb emissions of the heat-trapping gases that threaten to wreak havoc on Earth's climate system is to be presented at the United Nations conference on climate change COP21 in Le Bourget, on the outskirts of Paris. Getty Paris climate talks in pictures Representatives of indigenous peoples demonstrate in Paris, France, as the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) continues at Le Bourget, December 12, 2015. Reuters Paris climate talks in pictures Environmentalists demonstrate near the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, France, as the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) continues at Le Bourget, December 12, 2015. Reuters Paris climate talks in pictures Environmentalists demonstrate near the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, France, as the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) continues at Le Bourget, December 12, 2015. Reuters Paris climate talks in pictures Activists form a giant red line during a demonstration on the Avenue de la Grande armee boulevard in Paris on December 12, 2015, as a proposed 195-nation accord to curb emissions of the heat-trapping gases that threaten to wreak havoc on Earth's climate system is to be presented at the United Nations conference on climate change COP21 in Le Bourget, on the outskirts of Paris ALAIN JOCARD/AFP/Getty Images Paris climate talks in pictures The slogan "No Plan B" is projected on the Eiffel Tower as part of the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) in Paris, France, December 11, 2015. Reuters

A huge investment in innovation in third-way technologies is also required. To cut atmospheric CO2 by 1ppm (parts per million) requires the removal of 18 gigatonnes of it – for which you’d need to plant a forest four times the size of Australia. Carbon sequestration in forests, crops, rangelands, biochar and wood industry products can play a part, but seaweed farms offer far larger carbon capture potential. Because they are excellent habitats for fish and shellfish, they also offer huge protein yields. But ways will need to be found, and financed, to process the kelp and sequester the carbon it captures.

Cement manufacture accounts for 5 per cent of global emissions, and the transition to carbon-negative concretes, already a nascent industry, must be accelerated, along with the use of silicate rocks, which sequester CO2 as they weather. If we can quarry and crush 5 to 6 gigatonnes of silicate rock per annum using clean energy, we can capture and store 3 to 4 gigatonnes of atmospheric CO2. Nascent industries in plastics and carbon fibres made from CO2 also have a role to play.

If the idea of such changes by mid-century sounds like sci-fi, just imagine the changes that occurred between 1915 and 1950 – from the horse-drawn to the nuclear era. The rate of change has only accelerated since, and the problem that will drive the innovation – the greenhouse gases that will drive ever worse climatic shifts – will not go away of its own accord. Indeed, the innovation revolution that drives the third way promises to make the clean energy revolution look like small beer.

Tim Flannery’s Atmosphere of Hope is published by Penguin