Tesla secrecy has analysts estimating Model 3 battery costs
Tesla CEO Elon Musk told analysts on a call with Goldman Sachs this week that the two pack options on the Model 3 are “just over 50 kWh” for the standard version, which is expected to enable 220 miles of range, and about 75 kWh for the “long range” version, which Tesla claims can enable 310 miles of range. However, he refused to disclose the cost of the batteries while insisting it is ahead of the competition.
There has been a lot of speculation, more recently through documents released by the EPA, about Tesla Model 3 battery pack options since the company first refused to confirm their energy capacities in an attempt to dissociate them from the vehicle’s options.

But now CEO Elon Musk added to the debate and says that the pack options are “just over 50 kWh” for the standard version, which is expected to enable 220 miles of range, and about 75 kWh for the “long range” version, which Tesla claims can enable 310 miles of range.

Musk made the comment during a conference call hosted by Goldman Sachs for bondholders following Tesla’s new bond issuance yesterday, according to sources who were at the event.

The information is especially important to investors who are attempting to estimate the cost of the Model 3 in an attempt to model ways that Tesla can achieve its targeted 25% gross margin on the vehicle.

For example, at $150 per kWh, the Model 3 battery packs would cost between $7,500 and $11,250 per vehicle. A few dollar difference per kWh or a few kWh difference per battery capacity can make a significant overall impact on the cost of the electric car.

As we reported earlier today, Musk refused to disclose Tesla’s battery cost but he insists it is ahead of the competition.

Tesla had previously disclosed that its battery pack cost was “below 190$ per kWh” and they aim for Gigafactory production to reduce the cost by 35%. Musk also said that he would be disappointed if they don’t bring the cost below $100 per kWh by the end of the decade.

During the call, Musk also expressed concerns over battery cell supply potentially creating a bottleneck for Model 3 production and even suggested that Tesla could push customers toward the smaller battery pack option, which require significantly fewer cells.

They are sort of already doing this with the $9,000 premium for the ~75 kWh long range battery pack over the standard option, which starts at $35,000.

At this point, Tesla is not entirely sure of the demand for each version because only the long range is available and the fact that the standard version has been pushed a few months can have an impact on the demand, which could shift once both versions are in full production.

The company started taking the preferences of reservation holders in an attempt to model demand for each version, as well as the upcoming dual motor powertrain, which is due next year on the Model 3.