European government&#39;s fear of Brexit contagion

EU governments fear that the Brexit vote will lead to a referendum contagion across the continent and that far-right parties would use it to fuel anti-EU sentiments threatening the Schengen agreement, the euro and EU membership itself. According to a recent Ipsos Mori poll, 55% of the electorate in France and 58% in Italy would like to take the issue of EU membership to a vote, with more than half the respondents believing Brexit would have a 'domino effect.' As the Vote Leave campaign gathers momentum and the probability of victory higher than Downing Street hoped, governments are starting to prepare for the possibility of Brexit and how they would engage with the UK.

One source who spoke on condition of anonymity said: “Denmark is looking very closely at the People’s Party reaction to the British referendum. ... As a country we have historically been among the most positive towards the EU. Although it is still quite high, this figure has dropped in recent years. We, as pro-European parties of government, are all at the moment vulnerable to EU-sceptic populism.”

None of the governments BuzzFeed News spoke to have detailed contingency plans already in place, but are starting to prepare for the possibility of Brexit and how they would engage with the UK. Their underlying assumption is that the British public will vote to remain in the EU, even though officials admit they gather from recent conversations with Downing Street, and diplomatic backchannels, that the probability of a Leave victory is higher than hoped.

“Up until now the possibility of Brexit was mostly viewed as an intellectual sideshow, and our hope is for a strong Remain win [more than 55%]," a French official told BuzzFeed News. "But the shock of an exit would make parties act fast, and while there are no detailed plans, we are starting to prepare for the possibility.”

They said that if Britain votes to leave, calls for a referendum on France's status in the EU could become one of the top issues during next year’s presidential election.



However, the same official isn’t convinced that the Front National will ultimately choose to campaign for a straight in/out vote on EU or euro membership, and speculates that the party could instead question one specific aspect of the EU, such as pulling France out of Schengen, the agreement that allows visa-free travel within most of Europe's economic area.



According to multiple sources, the issue of contagion will not be limited to how populist parties in western Europe react to a potential Brexit.

One official said the reaction among more recent EU members in eastern Europe should also be followed closely. On one, immediate, level, there are countries such as Hungary staging referendums to refuse a quota system for the relocation of refugees.

On a deeper level, the official said, a British exit could heighten tensions between pro-European and pro-Russian sections of their populations. However, the source said the EU was confident it could contain this. “Many such countries joined the EU with the same motivation they join NATO: for security and geopolitical reasons – and their concerns are the same with or without the UK.”



A French government official said that the best way to address these particular worries would be for Europe’s core countries – mainly France, Italy, and Germany –to send a strong signal of unity immediately after a UK vote. But the same official was keen to stress his government's view that such a message, and these issues, are ultimately independent of the Brexit debate because security concerns and the future of the EU go beyond Britain's possible departure.