North Korea's possible bomb detonation threatens regional balance of power

The North Korean regime says it has successfully detonated an H-bomb, creating a 5.1 magnitude artificial earthquake in the process, although some experts are already disputing these claims. While the regime has stated that it will not use nuclear weapons aggressively, if a successful test has indeed taken place of an H-bomb this clearly changes the balance of power in the region and will be a major cause for concern. "This H-bomb test brings us to a higher level of nuclear power" said the State agency. The US Government has said it will take a number of weeks to know whether the test is true, but the scale and effect of the test were felt by seismic detection devices in the region. For now, however, there seems to be little for the markets to concern themselves about, since previous nuclear tests by North Korea led to, at worst, only short-lived selloffs.

6 Jan 2016 13.42 GMT Marco Rubio

Photograph: Patrick Semansky/AP US Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio has used the test to criticise Barack Obama’s “failed” foreign policy, Reuters reports.

“If this test is confirmed, it will be just the latest example of the failed Obama-Clinton foreign policy,” Rubio, said in a statement.

“I have been warning throughout this campaign that North Korea is run by a lunatic who has been expanding his nuclear arsenal while President Obama has stood idly by,” Rubio said.

Rubio said Obama should “stand up to people like Kim” but did not elaborate.

Updated at 13.42 GMT

6 Jan 2016 13.32 GMT Simon Tisdall Of all the international statements denouncing North Korea’s move, China’s is the most significant, writes Simon Tisdall. Beijing formally protested, expressed concern over radioactive fallout in areas bordering North Korea, and indicated it would support new, punitive UN security council action as demanded by South Korea, among others. Maybe Beijing’s undisguised wrath will give Kim Jong-un pause. But maybe not. In a deliberate poke in the eye for China’s leaders, he failed to inform them of the test in advance. Kim has refused to rejoin the Chinese-led six-party nuclear talks. In September, he snubbed President Xi Jinping’s invitation to attend celebrations marking the end of the second world war.

In fact, Kim has never visited his Chinese ally A visit to Pyongyang last October by Liu Yunshan, a senior Chinese party official, suggested relations were warming up. Now Kim has slammed the door again. In truth, China has less leverage over Pyongyang, both politically and in terms of trade and oil supplies, than is commonly believed. So perhaps the boyish Kim, self-styled “Supreme Leader”, does not really care what “Big Daddy” Xi wants.

Or perhaps – a more alarming thought – Kim does not know what he is doing. Conventional diplomatic wisdom suggests China will not break with North Korea’s regime for fear of internal collapse, a refugee crisis, and a US-South Korean takeover. But there is more than one way to skin a cat. Tough bilateral Chinese sanctions in addition to UN measures are one option, plus a halt to Chinese aid, investment and joint projects. If China does not act, it is unclear who will.





6 Jan 2016 13.22 GMT AP mops up more reaction: Melissa Hanham, senior researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterrey, California, said: “I’m pretty skeptical. ... The seismic data indicates it would be very small for a hydrogen test. It would be very, very remarkable if they had achieved it already. ... It seems just too soon to have this big technical achievement. But North Korea has always defied expectations.” Song Chol, a resident of Pyongyang, said: “The United States is the aggressor with all kinds of nuclear weapons, waiting to invade our country, so having a hydrogen bomb is the right thing, the legitimate right of a sovereign state, which nobody can complain about. It would be stupid to put down your gun as you are faced by fierce wolves rushing at you.”

Hazel Smith, director of the International Institute of Korean Studies at Britain’s University of Central Lancashire, said: “The North Koreans are not led by diplomatic strategy anymore. They are led by a view that the military is what allows the regime to survive ... You have a group of (ruling) families who don’t want to see their power go, who don’t want to end up in (the International Criminal Court in) The Hague. “Every nuclear test that they’ve had has caused massive consternation in China. But the North Koreans have never been susceptible to letting China tell them what to do.”_ Lassin Zerbo, executive secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, said: “I sincerely hope that this will serve as the final wake-up call to the international community to outlaw all nuclear testing.” John Delury, a professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University said North Korea’s powerful military and nuclear weapons bureaucracies “are continuously looking for ways to improve their programs,” Delury said. “I figure they are constantly asking to test.”He said that since “there’s not much in play” with North Korea diplomatically with the US, South Korea or even China, leader Kim Jong Un “takes a little bit of a blow” with the test while gaining international attention and placating powerful officials in his regime.



6 Jan 2016 12.45 GMT Trying to figure out North Korean motivations is difficult as the regime is so opaque, but the New York Times gives it a go in a comprehensive q&a. In the past, United States administrations and South Korean governments managed to tamp down periodic heightened tensions with North Korea by offering concessions, including much-needed aid, in return for the North’s promising to end its nuclear weapons programs. Many analysts believe that North Korea is again seeking aid and other concessions, while some suggest that it merely wants to be recognized as a nuclear state, like Pakistan. Still others suggest that the North genuinely fears an attack by the United States or South Korea and views the warnings as deterrence. Highlighting a perceived threat from abroad is also a favorite tool the North Korean government uses to ensure internal cohesion in an impoverished country that has experienced enormous privation, including devastating famine and continuing pervasive hunger.



6 Jan 2016 12.39 GMT Frank-Walter Steinmeier

Photograph: Michael Sohn/AP North Korea’s nuclear program and its repeated nuclear tests are serious threats to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, according to Germany’s foreign ministry Frank-Walter Steinmeier. In his statement of condemnation he said:

North Korea is against the principles of the international community and threatens the regional and international security. We urge North Korea to refrain, to behave according to the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and return to the negotiating table.



6 Jan 2016 12.30 GMT Mark Tran Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, called for a resumption of the stop-start six-party talks aimed at terminating North Korea’s nuclear programme. Involving China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US, they began in 2003, but have been moribund since 2009. Angela Stanzel, a policy fellow in the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, summed up the state of the talks in this piece for Al Jazeera. Time and again, the talks stopped and were relaunched, until eventually collapsing completely in 2009, after a North Korean satellite launch prompted the UN security council to expand sanctions on North Korean firms. Ever since, China has been attempting to reconvene the talks but has failed as the other parties (mainly the US) do not wish to resume negotiations without imposing preconditions on North Korea. When Kim Jong-un succeeded his father Kim Jong-il in December 2011, hopes rose again that the son would be more willing to re-engage in negotiations. Those who had this hope were disappointed soon.



6 Jan 2016 12.08 GMT Mark Tran In December, 38 North, a US research institute that tracks North Korea, reported that a new tunnel was being excavated at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. 38 North said - presciently as it turned out - that the new tunnel gave North Korea increased capability to conduct additional explosions. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is excavating a new tunnel for nuclear testing at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. This tunnel is in a new area of the site in addition to the three others where the North has either conducted nuclear tests or excavated tunnels in the past. While there are no indications that a nuclear test is imminent, the new tunnel adds to North Korea’s ability to conduct additional detonations at Punggye-ri over the coming years if it chooses to do so.

Updated at 12.16 GMT

6 Jan 2016 11.55 GMT Nato accuses DPNK of undermining international security Nato says the test undermines regional and international security. In a statement secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said:

The nuclear weapons test announced by North Korea undermines regional and international security, and is in clear breach of UN Security Council resolutions. I condemn the continued development by North Korea of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes and its inflammatory and threatening rhetoric. I call on North Korea to fully respect its international obligations and commitments. North Korea should abandon nuclear weapons and existing nuclear and ballistic missile programmes in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner, and engage in credible and authentic talks on denuclearisation.



6 Jan 2016 11.45 GMT Hilary Benn, who survived Labour’s reshuffle as shadow foreign secretary, has added his voice to the stream of condemnation. In a statement he said: “If verified, the nuclear test carried out by North Korea represents a clear violation of numerous UN Security Council Resolutions and I condemn it in the strongest possible terms. “The country’s nuclear programme poses a grave threat to international peace and security and does nothing to improve the prospects of the people of North Korea, who continue to pay the price for the country’s misguided policies. “I call on the North Korean government to recognise its commitments under international law, and urge it and the international community to reinvigorate efforts towards the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, ideally through the resumption of the Six Party Talks.”

Updated at 11.51 GMT

6 Jan 2016 11.36 GMT What we know so far Here’s a round up of where things currently stand:

North Korea claims it has successfully detonated a miniaturised hydrogen bomb. The underground test took place on Wednesday at 10am local time (1.30am GMT/Wednesday 12.30pm AEDT/Tuesday 6.30pm ET) at a known nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, in the east of the country.

The underground test took place on Wednesday at 10am local time (1.30am GMT/Wednesday 12.30pm AEDT/Tuesday 6.30pm ET) at a known nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, in the east of the country. Pyongyang said the test and was “self-defence against the US having numerous and humongous nuclear weapons” . In a TV announcement it also said the test went “perfectly”. If true, this would be North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, and its first using a hydrogen bomb, significantly more powerful than an atomic bomb.

. In a TV announcement it also said the test went “perfectly”. If true, this would be North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, and its first using a hydrogen bomb, significantly more powerful than an atomic bomb. There has been no independent verification of North Korea’s claims. An artificial earthquake of magnitude 5.1 was detected close to Punggye-ri. The UN organisation monitoring the world for signs of nuclear testing confirmed it had detected “an unusual event in the Korean peninsula”, but some experts have cautioned that claims of a hydrogen bomb could be exaggerated.

An artificial earthquake of magnitude 5.1 was detected close to Punggye-ri. The UN organisation monitoring the world for signs of nuclear testing confirmed it had detected “an unusual event in the Korean peninsula”, but some experts have cautioned that claims of a hydrogen bomb could be exaggerated. The UN security council is expected to meet in New York on Wednesday 11am ET (4pm GMT) to discuss the North Korean claims.

in New York on Wednesday 11am ET (4pm GMT) to discuss the North Korean claims. Russia and China have joined the international chorus of countries condemning the tes t. China, once seen as an ally of North Korea, said it “firmly” opposed the test. It also said it was given no warning.



t. China, once seen as an ally of North Korea, said it “firmly” opposed the test. It also said it was given no warning. There has also been widespread scepticism of Pyongyang’s claims about the test. The White House said it could not yet confirm the test, but reiterated that the US “will not accept [North Korea] as a nuclear state”.

about the test. The White House said it could not yet confirm the test, but reiterated that the US “will not accept [North Korea] as a nuclear state”. South Korea and Japan have condemned news of the test, labelling it a threat to their security. Statements of concern have also been issued by the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency.



Australia’s foreign minister Julie Bishop said her country “condemns in the strongest possible terms the provocative and dangerous behaviour of the North Korean regime”.

The UK foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, said any test would be a “grave breach” of UN resolutions and “a provocation which I condemn without reservation”.





6 Jan 2016 11.18 GMT Sweden’s former prime minister, Carl Bildt, encapsulates the international response in single tweet by condemning North Korea’s test while expressing doubts about its claims.

Very serious provocation by North Korea, although it's unlikely to have been a fully-fledged fusion bomb.https://t.co/8eHHQrSNzN — Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) January 6, 2016



6 Jan 2016 11.07 GMT The test can be seen as snub to China and sign of Beijing’s waning influence over North Korea, analysts have told the Washington Post. “In a way, this is a protest against Beijing,” said Bo Zhiyue, director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre at the Victoria University of Wellington. “They are saying: ‘we can do whatever we want. This shows our independence and we don’t need your approval.’” ...

No one is expecting a complete breakdown in Sino-North Korean ties, nor are they expecting Pyongyang to abandon a nuclear program that has become a key pillar of its regime’s declared legitimacy, at least not in the foreseeable future. “Beijing will face increased pressure both domestically and internationally to punish and rein in Kim Jong Un and to ultimately force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons,” said Yanmei Xie, senior China analyst with the International Crisis Group in Beijing. “But there is likely to be a repeat of the worn playbook of denunciation, tightening of sanctions, and calling for resurrection of the six party talks.”



6 Jan 2016 11.00 GMT Nuclear experts have questioned whether the size of the blast was large enough to have been from a hydrogen bomb test, the BBC reports.

Bruce Bennett, an analyst with the Rand Corporation, was among those casting doubts on Pyongyang’s test: “The bang they should have gotten would have been ten times greater than what they’re claiming. “So Kim Jong-un is either lying, saying they did a hydrogen test when they didn’t, they just used a little bit more efficient fission weapon - or the hydrogen part of the test really didn’t work very well or the fission part didn’t work very well.” A South Korean politician, Lee Cheol-woo, said he was briefed by the country’s intelligence agency that the blast “probably falls short” of a hydrogen detonation.



6 Jan 2016 10.54 GMT Sanctions and resolutions will not stop North Korean engineers from working hard to build bigger and better weapons, warns Andrei Lankov. More likely, in the next few weeks we will see a repeat of the same cycle we have seen so many times over the last 10 years. The UN security council will have an urgent meeting that will introduce sanctions targeting North Korea. Such sanctions will allow politicians to explain to their voters that they are punishing a rogue regime in all ways imaginable – for instance, depriving the leadership of Hennessey cognac and Godiva chocolate. Credulous voters will agree and feel placated, but in actuality, such measures will make little if any difference. Even if sanctions were to inflict damage on the North Korean economy – which has exceptionally low dependence on foreign trade – the only victims will be common North Koreans, who will just suffer more. Of course, the top leadership might lose access to champagne, but in their eyes, this is a small price to pay for escaping the fates of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. We seem to be caught in a cul-de-sac ... Nothing good about this situation is in sight, but seemingly there’s nothing to be done. North Korea won't surrender its nuclear weapons – sanctions or no sanctions Read more



6 Jan 2016 10.45 GMT Japan’s defence ministry has deployed three T4 training planes to collect possible radioactive material in the air following North Korea’s claimed hydrogen bomb test, AFP reports citing officials “To understand the impact of possible radioactive materials released by the test, Air Self-Defence Force planes have collected dust in the air,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, the government’s top spokesman, told a press conference. “It is currently being sent to the Japan Chemical Analysis Center,” he said. Suga added that the planes flew in Japanese airspace, while the Sankei Shimbun daily reported that the aircrafts took off from three separate bases in different parts of the country. The cabinet secretary also said no abnormal levels of radiation have so far been detected through monitoring posts installed across Japan as of 4:45 pm Wednesday (0745 GMT). The results collected by the planes are expected to be released on Thursday, an official with Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority told reporters. Japan Meteorological Agency officer explains seismic activity in North Korea following the test. Photograph: The Asahi Shimbun/The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Imag

