Dems see 2018 gains in repeated Obamacare repeal tries
To the Republicans vowing to keep their Obamacare repeal drive alive for as long as it takes, Democrats say: Please, and thank you.

“I think they are falling into an enormous trap of their own making. And have at it,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). “I think they’re going to pay a very heavy price for this.”

Obamacare also has proven a uniquely unifying issue for Democrats, from the red-state Joe Manchin wing to the liberal Bernie Sanders end of the party. Activist groups that are otherwise prone to occasional clashes with party leaders have also linked arms to help Democrats defeat repeated Republican repeal efforts, and any fresh repeal attempt close to the midterms would likely spark another kumbaya moment.

“Everybody, from the most progressive to the most moderate, would be glad to vote to retain the progress we’ve made on health care and to prevent people’s lives from being thrown into chaos,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee homed in on the anti-repeal message after the Senate’s latest push sputtered earlier this week, blasting out a reminder that all but 20 House Republicans backed the GOP’s repeal plan in May.

DCCC spokesman Tyler Law declared that no matter what happens to the GOP’s drive to uproot Obamacare, Democrats would work hard to hang the unpopular House-passed repeal bill around their rivals’ necks.

“This issue is going to remain front and center because it’s so personal,” Law said. “And I would also add it’s going to be front and center because Republicans are stubbornly saying, ‘We are going to continue over and over again to try and take your health care away.’”

That commitment from Republicans who are still openly entertaining a return to the repeal debate before 2019 has deep roots, however. GOP donors and conservative activists who have propelled the party’s seven-year push to dismantle Obamacare are not content to declare it dead for good, particularly when Trump’s party is only in the early stages of its tax reform efforts.

Republicans dismissed the idea that Democrats can capitalize on Obamacare repeal.

“House Democrats have made bold claims about their electoral prospects before only to fail miserably — this is no different,” Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement. “Their embrace of single-payer health care has ensured that their unabashed loyalty to the progressive base, at the expense of working class families, will be the defining issue of this cycle.”

Waiting until next year, Republicans wager, will give them more time to shape a more successful “replace” element for their Obamacare repeal-and-replace plan.

“Democrats have been able to use the issue, mostly because the messaging on our side hasn’t been great, but the fact is that health care in the U.S. — everyone, Democrats, Republicans, recognize something needs to change. Obamacare isn’t working,” one GOP strategist said. “With more time, Republicans are going to be able to craft a plan that more folks can agree on within the caucus, and it will give them more time to sell it to the general public.”

There’s also the problem that continued failure by Republicans on their years-long campaign pledge could keep base voters home next Election Day. Proponents of the latest repeal bill were open about anger among GOP donors and the grass roots.

But after watching Republicans reap the political gains of campaigning against Obamacare, Democrats are convinced the tables have turned. Connolly singled out Rep. Darrell Issa and other politically imperiled California Republicans as particularly at risk if the GOP attempts to bring back Obamacare repeal next year. The 14 California House Republicans who voted for their party’s repeal bill “went off the cliff for solidarity, irrespective of the impact on their constituents,” he said.

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to take back the House. They’re eyeing 23 Republican seats in districts Hillary Clinton won and argue at least 50 more GOP seats could be competitive in the right environment.

Voters rated health care and the economy as the two most important issues when picking their member of Congress in the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, released this week.

The overarching theme — vote for Democrats or Republicans will keep trying to take away your health care — could also help mask some of the party’s own divisions over health care, Democratic strategists say.

Progressives, including multiple 2020 presidential contenders and 60 percent of House Democrats, have in recent weeks rallied around the Medicare-for-All push from Sanders (I-Vt.). But Democratic leaders and several vulnerable House Democrats have shied away from the proposal, wary of alienating centrist voters in districts that will be critical in the push to win back the lower chamber next year.

Republicans raced to play up the internal Democratic divide after Sanders’ splashy rollout earlier this month, aiming to turn it into a campaign-trail albatross for the minority. But a broader message focused on GOP repeal efforts could help deflect the spotlight away from some of those differences and force Republicans to go on defense.

Indeed, progressive organizers who have not hesitated to criticize Democratic leaders say their grass roots won’t be caught off guard again by another repeal push.

“We don’t want to see this come back, but our groups have said time and time again that every time Republicans have put forward an attempt to repeal, they would step up,” said Angel Padilla, policy director at the liberal group Indivisible. “We don’t think that’s going to change. And we think it’s going to affect who controls Congress.”

Democrats also argue that bipartisan Senate talks to stabilize Obamacare will only help their case heading into the midterms. Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) resumed talks Wednesday to try to salvage their bipartisan health care plan, an effort that was quashed by GOP leadership when the repeal plan seemed to have legs.

But Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has already rejected the talks, saying any bill they come up with would never pass in the House. Democrats say that stonewalling only strengthens their case to voters in the coming months.

“The politics for us is really clear and really simple,” Schatz said. “In the end, they’ve got to do what they think is right, but Round Seven [of repeal] doesn’t seem like the right slogan for 2018.”