Update: US reacts to potential Russian threat by fortifying Europe

The US is planning to substantially increase the deployment of heavy weapons and other equipment to NATO countries in Central and Eastern Europe, as it aims to deter Russia from further aggression in the region, say reports. As we previously noted, economic and political uncertainty in Moldova and Armenia are just two areas causing increasing concern in the area, and this week Russia was accused of trying to undermine the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, in hopes of destabilising Europe. Tensions between Russia and UK have also been accelerating, including reports today that Britain accused Russia of trying to carve out a mini-state for Assad in Syria. Meanwhile, relations between Russia and Turkey continue to be tested as Russian jets once again violated Turkish airspace on Friday.

US to fortify east Europe to deter ‘difficult’ Russia

‘CHANGED ENVIRONMENT’: One official said the focus was originally on reassuring NATO allies, with the scope later expanded to provide a more consistent solution

NY Times News Service, WASHINGTON





US President Barack Obama plans to substantially increase the deployment of heavy weapons, armored vehicles and other equipment to NATO countries in central and eastern Europe, a move that administration officials said was aimed at deterring Russia from further aggression in the region.

The White House plans on paying for the additional weapons and equipment with a budget request of more than US$3.4 billion for military spending in Europe next year, several officials said on Monday, more than quadrupling the current budget of US$789 million.

The weapons and equipment are to be used by US and NATO forces, ensuring that the alliance can maintain a full armored combat brigade in the region at all times.

Although Russia’s military activity has quieted in eastern Ukraine in recent months, Moscow continues to maintain a presence there, working with pro-Russian local forces.

Administration officials said the additional NATO forces were calculated to send a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the West remained deeply suspicious of his motives in the region.

“This is not a response to something that happened last Tuesday,” a senior administration official said. “This is a longer-term response to a changed security environment in Europe. This reflects a new situation, where Russia has become a more difficult actor.”

It is not clear how Russia will react to the fortified military presence along NATO’s eastern border. Since the signing of a ceasefire agreement last year, Putin’s government has tried to ease tensions with the West.

Officials said the Russian government was eager for the US and Europe to roll back economic sanctions, which suggested that it would not escalate tensions over the new military commitments.

However, outside analysts were surprised by the magnitude of the increase in military funding for Europe, which is part of an overall budget request of US$580 billion for the Pentagon. Obama, according to a US Department of Defense official, is also going to ask US Congress for a 35 percent increase — US$7 billion — to fight Islamic State militants.

Some analysts said the increased funding and deployments would certainly rattle Russia. Among the countries where the equipment and additional forces could be deployed are Hungary, Romania and Baltic countries, Pentagon officials said.

“This is a really big deal, and the Russians are going to have a cow,” said Evelyn Farkas, who until October last year was the Pentagon’s top policy official on Russia and Ukraine. “It’s a huge sign of commitment to deterring Russia, and to strengthening our alliance and our partnership with countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.”

While the increase in funding for Europe is significant, the administration is proposing that the money come out of a separate war-funding account that is meant to pay for operations in the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, as well as the continued US military presence in Afghanistan.

That means it is a one-time request, not necessarily a continuing commitment, built into budget requests beyond next year, officials said.

“It’s a way to get around the budget caps” imposed on the Pentagon, Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies defense budget analysis director Todd Harrison said.

However, the budget work-around might not succeed in reassuring fretful eastern European allies, because it leaves the decision on what do about future military spending in Europe for the next administration, Harrison added.

“If you want to be reassuring to our allies in Europe, you’ve got to show you’ve got a future plan,” he said.

Administration officials said the new investments were not just about deterring Russia. The weapons and equipment could also be deployed along NATO’s southern flank, where they could help in the fight against the Islamic State or in dealing with the influx of migrants from Syria.

“Initially, we were focusing on reassurance, but while that was happening, we were stepping back and asking how to address the changed environment in a more programmatic and consistent way,” said one of the senior officials, who, like the others, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal military planning.

Still, there is no doubt the primary target of the funding is Russia. Administration officials said that two years after its annexation of Crimea — an annexation that neither the US nor its European allies recognize — it was imperative to send Moscow a message that that NATO will do all it needs to in order to stand behind eastern European members worried that they could be next.