Obamacare Premiums Are Set to Rise. Thank Policy Uncertainty.
Insurers are making final decisions about their Obamacare rates for next year. So far, it looks as if many of them will be building in an uncertainty tax. The Kaiser Family Foundation has compiled proposed insurance prices for coverage in 21 large American cities next year.

The increases are not just about Mr. Trump and policy uncertainty. Insurers are also raising rates for the reasons they usually do. Health care costs are expected to go up in 2018, as they do every year. And an Obamacare tax on health insurance plans that was temporarily postponed is scheduled to kick in next year.

The sticker price of insurance matters to a minority of Americans. Only about 10 percent of Americans buy their own insurance, and most of those receive government subsidies that shield them from price increases. Kaiser estimates that in most of the places where prices are going up, the amount people with subsidies will pay for insurance will go down. Still, hefty premium increases are a big pocketbook hit to the approximately 10 million Americans who buy their own insurance and are ineligible for subsidies. And they are a good indication of the health of the Obamacare market, which Mr. Trump frequently assails as failing or dying.

The study looked at only one city in each state, and cities tend to be the places where Obamacare works best, because of larger populations and more choices of doctors and hospitals. Many of the most expensive and shaky markets tend to be in rural areas. It will take time before we know what their prices will be. But there are still a few rural counties with no insurer willing to offer coverage next year.

The proposed rates aren’t yet final. Regulators in some states may force them lower — or, in rare cases, higher. And insurance companies could have some flexibility to make last-minute changes if policy certainty emerges soon. Insurers still have several weeks to decide if they wish to exit Obamacare’s markets for next year altogether.

After failing to pass a big health care overhaul bill last month, congressional leaders have begun discussing possible steps to stabilize the Obamacare markets, steps that could calm insurer worries and cause more to stick around. But Ms. Cox is skeptical that such action would have a big impact on next year’s prices. Insurers are locked into a process of rate calculations and approvals that make it hard for them to change their prices substantially at this point.

“It’s getting to be very late in the game for there to be changes to premiums,” she said.