China's rising obesity levels unlikely to be challenged
China now has the largest overweight population in the world, according to a study published in the Lancet Medical Journal. In the nation of 1.4 billion, 10.8% of men and 14.9% of women are classified as overweight. This comes as the government launches the Healthy China 2030 initiative, which aims to make make the country healthy again in the next 13 years. As fast-food providers, including KFC and McDonald's, look to expand in the country, some critics argue that regulatory reforms, such as a sugar tax, would be more effective.
With an increasingly urban population, rising disposable incomes and a growing demand for international cuisines, it is no wonder China is home to a high number of fast-food brands.

Of these, KFC planned to open 600 new restaurants across cities in China in 2016. Meanwhile, McDonald’s aims to roll out 1,000 new outlets over five years.

Starbucks, with its frothy, sugary offerings, has acknowledged that China could eventually surpass the United States in terms of market size for the fast-coffee chain, and in October announced plans to double the number of its 2,300 outlets in China by 2021.

All of that, of course, carries physical costs. Swelling waistlines are the most visible symptom. Even the state-run media outlet Global Times found that China now has the largest overweight population in the world – 10.8% of men and 14.9% of women in a nation of 1.4 billion people – bumping the United States to second place, according to a study published in the Lancet Medical Journal.

That’s more than 43 million men and 46 million women classified as overweight. For children and young adults, the numbers are even more dire: the World Food Program indicated that 23% of boys and 14% of girls under 20 are overweight or obese. The Chinese often see themselves as in a race with the US; in this, they win.



Companies with emblems of golden arches and monochrome mermaids are not the sole perpetrators of this circumstance. Active lifestyles have not caught on, and nutritional balance in daily diets is often askew. The ubiquitous barbecued lamb skewer, for example, found in any bustling neighbourhood or night market from Ürümqi to Shenzhen, bundles two-thirds of the calories found in a pack of KFC fries.



Active lifestyles have not caught on, and nutritional balance in daily diets is often askew

China’s healthy eating plan

In response to a progressively unhealthy lifestyle festering within its cities, the central government has brandished a plan called Healthy China 2030, with the aim of making China healthy again in the next 13 years.



The plan’s blueprints were released in October, including the introduction of health education into the school curriculum and promoting “health as habit”, to bump up the populace’s life expectancy by four years to 79, and eventually match the health standards of high-income economies like those found in North America and western Europe.



Will the 13-year plan reverse a distressing trend? That’s hard to say; the plan is still fresh and details of execution are hazy, but the World Health Organisation has already framed it as a move by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, to “put health at the centre of the country’s entire policy-making machinery”. Food and beverage companies have also jumped on the bandwagon, championing “Healthy China 2030” with gusto.



Yum China, which owns KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell franchises in cities across China, has publicly backed the central government’s pronouncement. Its vice-president of public affairs said that Yum China has “always been committed to improving the lives and nutrition of people across the country”.

But health experts remain cautious. Barry Popkin, who started the China Health and Nutrition Survey in the late 1980s, pointed out that the WHO recently called for regulatory and fiscal reforms to address the causes of China’s noncommunicable disease health crisis, which Healthy China 2030 lacks.

“For the past 30 years, the Chinese have been misdirected and focused on physical activity instead of the food system as a way to address obesity,” he said. “One of the major shifts in China has been the massive decline in physical activity and the concurrent increase in the modern retail food sector and consumption of packaged food.”



Even as some other nations are implementing targeted fiscal measures such as taxes on sugary beverages, the Chinese are being misled into thinking that Healthy China 2030 will prevent obesity and nutrition-related diseases. Popkin estimated that 60% of consumed calories in China will come from packaged food – a figure that matches America’s. What’s needed is a different regulatory approach paired with incentives for the population to change their diets.



Considering the massive expansions by fast-food giants across Chinese cities, Popkin’s suggestions seem unlikely to materialise.



Chinese New Year is just around the corner. If KFC plays its cards right – as it did last year – the fast-food chain will see a good bump in profits again, with buckets of fried chicken as part of a special promotion zipping into the hands of eager, hungry Chinese diners.

Sign up to be a Guardian Sustainable Business member and get more stories like this direct to your inbox every week. You can also follow us on Twitter.