Self-driving cars to be “overwhelmingly” electric: Lux Research
Lux Research has published a report arguing that while traditional internal combustion engines could technically support self-driving technology, there are six reasons why it is likely the majority of self-driving cars will eventually be “overwhelmingly” electric: Technology-focused early adopters want both autonomous and electric innovations in the same car; It is easier to implement autonomous tech in EVs; Wireless charging integrates seamlessly with autonomy; More efficient self-driving extends electric range; Both technologies will mature at around the same time; Both technologies will become mandated by governments.

Technology-focused early adopters want both innovations in the same car. The type of early adopters that can afford EV price premiums often seek out technological differentiation as their reward—i.e., they want the OEM to include both electric and self-driving features in the same car, like in the new Mercedes-Benz S Class. As these innovations eventually trickle down and become more affordable, the initial pairing demanded by early adopters will carry on through to the mass market, as well.

It is easier to implement autonomous features on EVs. Self-driving cars require more from a car’s electrical subsystem. Today, ICE engines still largely use 12 V electrical systems, running off a single lead-acid battery; the higher voltages and energy stored in an EV battery pack allows much more design freedom when it comes to self-driving hardware and software implementations.

Wireless charging integrates seamlessly with autonomy. A self-driving car will have a hard time filling itself with gasoline; wireless charging does away with this issue. An autonomous car can drive to an open parking spot, align itself properly, and self-charge using wireless charging. Wireless charging is also more efficient as a function of alignment—and self-driving cars will be able to park themselves optimally, every time, to ensure the highest possible wireless charging efficiency. Finally, it enables “opportunistic charging”: Rather than waiting until the battery pack is nearly empty, a vehicle can charge itself when it is between driving duties.

More efficient self-driving extends range. All developers of EVs still struggle with range anxiety, and any technology that can extend driving range will be welcomed. Early studies indicate that self-driving technology may improve driving efficiency by 5% to 10%, thanks to smoother braking and acceleration, as well as more logical coasting and regenerative braking thanks to advanced mapping and predictive algorithms (client registration required).

Both technologies will mature at around the same time. Despite Tesla’s high profile, EVs are still not popular, barely making up about 1% of new car sales worldwide. Likewise, despite Google’s showy prototypes, fully self-driving cars are a distant promise. However, both are steadily progressing: Year by year, batteries get less expensive, helping EVs sell better. Year by year, sensors and software improves, allowing driver assist features to improve in their sophistication, making steady progress towards full autonomy. By Lux’s estimate, it will be around 2030 that both technologies will mature.