Egypt's ailing tourism in tatters following aviation disaster

The prospects for Egypt's vital tourism industry are dire following the crash of EgyptAir flight 804 on 19 May, carrying 66 people from Paris to Cairo. Egypt's top civil aviation official says terrorism is the most likely cause of the crash rather than technical failure, which if proven correct, will mark the third attack on Egyptian aviation in six months. Analysts are questioning whether this latest tragedy will halt the country's much-needed tourism industry, which according to the World Travel and Tourism Council accounts for around 11% of Egypt's GDP and supports around 11% of its jobs, Olivier Jager from travel intelligence firm ForwardKeys warns: "This is a country that needs tourism to survive." Furthermore, as Royal United Services Institute's Dr. H A Hellyer points out: "The attack would have exposed flaws in French security, making both France and Egypt the target – and both of those countries have enemies among radical militant groups." The country continues to grapple with protests over economic instability and security issues, and as previously noted, its tourism industry was already experiencing its worst crisis in years. Egypt's economy grew 4.2% in 2015, but the IMF now expects growth to slow to 3.3% for 2016, down from the 4.3% predicted prior to the attack last November. 

After a decade of political turmoil and the downing of a holiday jet last year, tourism in Egypt was left in a desperate state - so will the MS804 tragedy sound the death knell for the industry?

Figures from February this year show that visitor numbers to Egypt practically halved and the average number of nights spent in the country is down by 67.2 per cent compared to 2015.

The country's tourism industry, says one expert, is now one disaster away from being finished altogether. If terrorists did down MS804 destroying the tourism industry is very likely to be one of their aims, as the poorer the country is, the easier it is to turn it into a breeding ground for recruits.

EgyptAir flight MS804 heading from Paris to Cairo is believed to have crashed into the sea after disappearing from radar. There were 66 people on board the Airbus A320 (pictured) that vanished 20 minutes before it was set to land in Egypt early Thursday morning

A radar map shows the plane's path travelling from Paris and then stopping in the Mediterranean Sea before reaching Cairo, where it lost contact with air traffic control

Dr Yeganeh Morakabati, from Bournemouth University, who specialises in the perception of risk in the context of catastrophic national and global events, told MailOnline Travel: 'It was and it still is crucial for the Egyptians to not let any other events occur as it would be fatal to what is left of their tourism industry.

'Sadly, this latest event comes shortly after EgyptAir was subject to a hijack on 29th March and they were already trying to recover from the events related to the Russian charter flight that was blown up in November 2015.

'This will add to the other events such as the recent killing of the Cambridge University student and at a time when we have heard that they have sentenced six inmates for the killing of a French teacher in prison.

'All of these events paint a poor image of Egypt as a tourist destination, just making it more and more difficult for them to recover their faltering tourism industry.'

Dr Morakabati also commented that negative press in the countries surrounding Egypt has 'taken its toll on the image of the region in the minds of tourists and business investors'.

Frank Brehany, Consumer Director of HolidayTravelWatch, agreed that the effect of the crash will be severe.

He said that 'whether the incident is proven to be terror-linked or not, holidaymakers will no doubt rethink any plans to visit that fascinating country'.

He told MailOnline Travel: 'Whilst it is too early to conclude what happened to MS804, it will nonetheless create concern within the minds of air passengers about the security to be found at all travel hubs; that is a natural consequence of such events.

'Insofar as Egyptian Tourism is concerned, whether the incident is proven to be terror-linked or not, holidaymakers will no doubt rethink any plans to visit that fascinating country.'

He added: 'It is clear from recent reports that Egypt was planning a push to attract European inbound tourism, but I fear that whatever initiatives were planned, these will not bear the fruit they were expecting to receive.

'It is unfortunately a sad reflection of the times we live in and such incidents or fears should be directly confronted so as to build up confidence in safety and confidence in travelling and supporting destinations like Egypt.'

Ghost town Sharm El Sheikh: Once bustling resort is almost deserted as terror attacks keep thousands of tourists away. The Red Sea resort is struggling after a Russian holiday jet crashed, killing all 224 passengers, in October last year

EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MS804 - WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR EgyptAir flight Flight MS804 left Paris at 10.09pm (BST) on Wednesday

The Airbus A320 vanished over the Mediterranean Sea at 1.45am (BST)

Airline said contact was lost with the plane 10 miles into Egyptian air space

It was flying at 37,000ft and disappeared 20 minutes before it was set to land

There were 56 passengers, including one Briton, and 10 crew on board

Passenger nationalities included 30 Egyptians, 15 French and one Canadian

Egyptian civil aviation authority said plane most likely crashed into the sea

Major search and rescue operation is now underway in the Mediterranean

Reports say there were no distress signals, no mechanical faults and skies were clear

Some experts say that it's too early to tell what the effect on the tourism sector will be.

A spokesperson for the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) told MailOnline Travel: 'Whatever the outcome there will be a thorough investigation into this incident and it is too early to speculate as to its impact on tourism to Egypt.'



An implosion of Egypt's tourism trade is likely to be a goal for terrorists.

Dr Morakabati added that anything that increases poverty in a nation is a goal for them as it means that it's easier for them to recruit new members.

Dr H A Hellyer, from the Royal United Services Institute, said that if terrorists were behind the crash, then damaging tourism would have been one of many motivations.

He said: 'We’ve no full confirmation yet that this was a terrorist attack, so we ought to wait and see – but if it was a militant group that brought down MS804, then damaging Egyptian tourism is likely only a part of the motivation.

'The attack would have exposed flaws in French security, making both France and Egypt the target – and both of those countries have enemies among radical militant groups.'

Egypt depends on its tourism income with the industry a major source of employment for the country, so its state of health is an important issue.

The number of Brits visiting the country has actually been dwindling since the 1990s, following brutal terrorist attacks.

Eleven years ago Britons were among 88 people massacred by terrorists in Sharm el Sheik, and in 1997, 62 tourists were gunned down by Islamists while visiting the ancient remains at Luxor.

The political situation hasn't helped, either.

A political uprising during the Arab Spring, which began in 2010 in Tunisia, also spread to Egypt where there were 18 days of mass protests, some of which turned violent.

At the time, ABTA said that bookings for Egypt were at a new low.

The UK Foreign Office is still advising against all but essential travel to the airport in Sharm el Sheik because of security concerns

Tourism in Egypt was hit again last year after a Russian Metrojet in the Sinai Peninsula was brought down by a bomb that was smuggled on board.

All 224 people on board were killed in the disaster, which occurred on October 31.

After the tragedy easyJet, which operates flights to Hurghada on the Red Sea coast, suspended its flights until May 29.

Similarly, Thomson and First Choice cancelled flights and hotel bookings up to and including September 28 for Sharm el-Sheikh, in line with the FCO advice.

Figures released earlier this year underscored the dramatic effect on Egypt's tourism industry that the Metrojet attack had.

Visitor numbers fell by 45.9 per cent in one year.

In February 2016, Egypt only received 346,500 visitors, compared to 640,200 last year, leaving resorts such as Sharm el Sheik abandoned.

The average number of nights tourists are spending in the country went down by 67.2 per cent in February this year compared to 2015, dropping from 9.2 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) still advises against travelling to certain parts of Egypt, citing a 'high threat from terrorism'.

In February, Egypt only received 346,500 visitor in February 2016 compared to 640,200 last year, leaving resorts such as Sharm el Sheik abandoned

In particular, the FCO advises against all but essential travel by air to or from Sharm el Sheikh.

At present, other tourist areas such as Luxor, Aswan and Abu Simbel are not included in the FCO advice.

When MailOnline Travel contacted FCO on May 19, the advice had not changed.

A FCO spokesman told MailOnline Travel: 'We are very concerned by the disappearance of EgyptAir MS804 this morning. Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those affected and we are working closely with the Egyptian and French authorities to confirm more information.

'Our staff are in contact with the family of a British national believed to be onboard and are providing support.'

EgyptAir flight MS804 took off from Paris at 10.09pm (BST) on Wednesday headed for Cairo, but it never got there.

The Airbus A320 vanished over the Mediterranean Sea at 1.45am (BST), just within Egyptian airspace, with 66 people on board.

Speaking to reporters at Cairo International Airport, Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif Ismail said it was too early to say whether a technical problem or a terror attack caused the plane to crash.