Climate change will result in more armed conflict
Climate-related natural disasters increase the risk of armed conflicts, with 23% of violent struggles between different ethnic groups linked to extreme weather conditions, according to new research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The results from the report could be used to predict where future violence may flare up, allowing preventative measures to be taken. Researcher for the report, Prof John Schellnhuber warns the climate-conflict link will become increasingly important in the future: “In 50 years from now, under a business-as-usual scenario, 80-90% of disasters will be driven by climate change. Then the whole thing really explodes.”

Man-made climate change is expected to increase the risk of natural disasters around the world from severe droughts to more intense tropical storms.

But the impact of these may go far beyond the immediate suffering of those caught up in them.

Researchers believe that climate disasters could increase the risk of armed conflict in countries where different ethnic groups live side by side.

Almost one quarter of conflicts in ethnically divided countries coincide with climatic calamities, the scientists found. Competition for resources and land increases tensions between groups and can lead to increased levels of violence (refugees battle the heat and cholera in a refugee camp during Rwandan Civil War pictured)

WHAT IS ETHNIC FRACTIONALISATION? Ethnic fractionalisation (EF) deals with the number, sizes, socioeconomic distribution, and geographical location of distinct cultural groups, usually in a state or country. The specific cultural features might refer to language, skin color, religion, ethnicity, customs and tradition, history, or another distinctive criterion, alone or in combination. Frequently these features are used for social exclusion and the monopolization of power. Advertisement !- - ad: https://mads.dailymail.co.uk/v8/ru/sciencetech/none/article/other/mpu_factbox.html?id=mpu_factbox_1 - ->

The research, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, suggests that climate-related natural disasters could exacerbate tensions between different ethnic groups.

Dr Carl Schleussner, who led the study, said: 'Devastating climate-related natural disasters have a disruptive potential that seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way.'

The researchers found that almost one quarter of conflicts in ethnically divided countries happen at the same time as climatic problems - even without taking climate change into account.

Dr Schleussner added: 'Climate disasters are not directly triggering conflict outbreak, but may enhance the risk of a conflict breaking out which is rooted in context-specific circumstances.

'As intuitive as this might seem, we can now show this in a scientifically sound way.'

Previous studies have focused on variables in climate, such as temperature increase.

However it was not possible to use this information to see the direct impact it had on societies.

Instead, the new study focuses directly on the economic damage caused by natural disasters, based on data from Munich Re from 1980-2010.

The researchers used computer models to analyse the data, to see how conflict within countries coincided with natural disasters.

Human-made climate change can lead to a range of natural disasters, from severe droughts to blistering heat-waves. Pictured above is a record-breaking drought in the Udon Thani province of Thailand earlier this year

Dr Jonathan Donges, who worked on the study, said: 'We've been surprised by the extent that results for ethnic fractionalised countries stick out compared to other country features such as conflict history, poverty, or inequality.

'We think that ethnic divides may serve as a predetermined conflict line when additional stressors like natural disasters kick in, making multi-ethnic countries particularly vulnerable to the effect of such disasters.'

The researchers used the internal conflict within Iraq as an example.

In their paper, they write: 'Although not highly ethnically fractionalised, ethnic identities appear to play a prominent role in the ongoing civil wars in Syria and Iraq.

'It is clear that the roots of these conflicts, as for armed conflicts in general, are case specific and not directly associated with climate-related natural disasters.

'Nevertheless, such disruptive events have the potential to amplify already existing societal tensions and stressors and thus to further destabilize several of the world's most conflict-prone regions.'

An illustration shows the methodological approach of event coincidence analysis. An armed-conflict outbreak (orange) was counted as coincident with a natural disaster (green), if it occurred within a prescribed damage threshold (blue)

However, the results of the study cannot be used to predict the risk in specific states.

Dr Hans Joachim Schnellnhuber, co-lead of the study, said: 'Armed conflicts are among the biggest threats to people, killing some and forcing others to leave their home and maybe flee to far-away countries.

'Human-made climate change will clearly boost heatwaves and regional droughts.

'Our observations combined with what we know about increasing climate-change impacts can help security policy to focus on risk regions.'

Many of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both vulnerable to human-made climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.

The researchers hope that their findings can help in the design of security policies in these high-risk areas.

Dr Schellnhuber added: 'Our study adds evidence of a very special co-benefit of climate stabilization - peace.'

CLIMATE CHANGE COULD AFFECT ANIMALS TOO While striped skunks already have a reputation for being avoided, new research at the Kansas State University College of Veterinary Medicine finds they carry a serious health threat for humans and animals: rabies. The study suggests that daytime temperature range - a climate change indicator that is decreasing at a slow but steady rate - may increase the general risk for striped skunks to contract rabies. Ram Raghavan, who worked on the study, said: 'Certain physical environment and climatic factors play an important role in determining such temporal and spatial patterns. 'For example, there is a relatively higher risk of rabies transmission from striped skunks to humans who reside in developed low-intensity areas and highly fragmented landscapes, such as edges of woodlands and agricultural lands, than in other places.' Advertisement !- - ad: https://mads.dailymail.co.uk/v8/ru/sciencetech/none/article/other/mpu_factbox.html?id=mpu_factbox_2 - ->



