US and India on course to formally approve the Paris Agreement this year

US President Barack Obama has inched closer to ensuring the Paris Climate Change Agreement is brought into effect before he leaves the White House, after India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to “try to” get his Cabinet to approve the treaty. To enter into force, the Paris Agreement must be formally joined or ratified by “55 countries representing 55 percent of global emissions” , and India’s signing up would see that happen. Obama has pledged to ratify the agreement “as soon as possible this year”, despite vociferous opposition from presidential candidate Donald Trump. The US and India have also agreed a series of deals investing in clean, renewable energy.

The deal struck in Paris in December requires countries to take action to reduce the greenhouse gases that warm the planet, but Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has vowed to “cancel” the agreement if he is elected.

Modi’s promise to work with his Cabinet to green light the climate agreement greatly increases the likelihood that the deal will reach the threshold required to enter into force this year, which would make it more difficult for a future U.S. administration to formally renege on its participation.

In a statement issued following a meeting between Modi and Obama at the White House, the U.S. underscored its promise to formally ratify the agreement “as soon as possible this year.” India echoed that commitment, saying it “similarly has begun its processes to work toward this shared objective.”

While the language gives India some wiggle room to delay ratification, it is the clearest indication so far that India, the planet’s third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, backs the global push for the deal to take effect quickly.

The agreement includes provisions that make it difficult for the United States to immediately pull out of the deal after it goes into effect. But those measures likely wouldn’t stop Trump from ignoring the agreement altogether and trying to unravel Obama’s climate regulations, which form the basis of the United States’ pledge to cut emissions 26 percent to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.

Hillary Clinton, for her part, has said she would continue implementing the agreement.

The Paris agreement will enter into force 30 days after 55 countries representing 55 percent of global emissions formally join or ratify it. So far, about three dozen countries making up about half of the planet’s emissions have pledged to ratify the deal this year, and India’s participation would push the deal well over the 55 percent threshold.

”I think we are better-positioned than we ever have been to reach the goal of 55 percent of emissions and 55 countries by the end of this year, and I think this statement should provide significant additional momentum toward this global push,” Brian Deese, a senior energy and climate adviser to Obama, told reporters.

India and the United States signed the climate deal along with more than 170 other countries at a high-profile ceremony in New York City earlier this year. Joining or ratifying the agreement is a separate procedural step under United Nations rules. Obama can join the agreement on behalf of the United States without congressional approval. Modi needs approval from his Cabinet to ratify the deal.

Tuesday’s U.S.-India statement also charts a path toward securing an amendment to the Montreal Protocol this year that would phase down hydrofluorocarbons, a potent greenhouse gas used in air conditioners and refrigerators. The new amendment to cut HFCs would help countries reach their broad goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels., since experts believe a rapid phase down of HFCs could prevent a half a degree or more of warming.

The statement says India and the United States will work to adopt an HFC amendment this year that includes increased financial support to help developing countries — a key priority for India. And it endorses an “ambitious phasedown schedule.”

In addition, the statement said the U.S. Export-Import Bank will work with India “toward a competitive financing package” for Westinghouse’s plan to build six nuclear reactors in India. The two countries also announced a $20 million U.S.-India Clean Energy Finance initiative, which aims to mobilize $400 million in investment to provide renewable and low-carbon electricity to 1 million homes by 2020; and a $40 million U.S.-India Catalytic Solar Finance Program, which aims to mobilize up to $1 billion in investment in solar energy.

