Update: ISIS and al-Qaida capitalise on instability in Libya

Islamist extremist groups, ISIS and al-Qaida, are expanding into Libya, taking advantage of the country’s political instability. In a new report, US-based security group, Soufan, warns that: “Given geography, expansive territory, extensive oil reserves and its history with violent jihadist networks, a failed state in Libya could be disastrous for North Africa and Europe as well as the broader international community.” The authorities will face a “monumental task of reuniting the country both socially and militarily” and the fact that large parts of the country are ungoverned and its lengthy borders are largely unguarded only exacerbates the problem. US President Barak Obama called yesterday for national security advisers to counter efforts by ISIS into Libya, following several attacks on oil installations this month; Pentagon spokesman, Peter Cook, revealed they were "looking at military options".

U.S. commandos have been operating in Libya for months in an attempt to build an alliance of local militia and political leaders who would contribute to a U.S.-led war, designed to thwart the Islamic State group’s efforts to build a safe haven there should the group be driven from Iraq and Syria. The extremist network has established footholds around the world but none more important than in Libya, where over the last year it has found a source of income and supplies and a lifeboat if its hub in the Middle East collapses. Its success in exploiting chaos in the tumultuous North African nation has now forced the Obama administration to once again consider war in Libya, after dismantling any semblance of order in 2011 through an air campaign that covered the rebels who ousted and killed former leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi. Increased rhetoric from Obama’s top military chiefs about operations in Libya indicates a plan for military involvement is on the way, reportedly in the form of ground-based commandos to gather intelligence, rally local forces and call in airstrikes. When asked Wednesday, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook declined to offer specifics on current operations, but indicated the military is forging a plan akin to previous attempts to rally local support for U.S. operations.

“I’m not going to tell you exactly what the disposition of our forces are there,” Cook said. “I can acknowledge we’ve had forces on the ground previously.”

They’re there to “get a better sense of who the players are,” he added, “who might be worthy of U.S. support and support from some of our partners going forward” in combating the extremists.

The Islamic State group has made millions off the sale of oil, and it would certainly find plentiful supplies in Libya. The country’s energy sector has historically accounted for 65 percent of its gross domestic product and 95 percent of government revenue, according to U.S. government estimates, all drawing from its 48 billion barrel oil reserves. The sharp decline of this market in 2013 led to massive civil unrest for the majority of the population that received a federal salary off these revenues. A bitter fight among government leaders for control of oil production ensued, as did popular anger over these shortfalls, all providing yet more opportunities for the Islamic State group.

Establishing some form of government in Libya is critical to defeating the Islamic State group in what has become “a complicated picture,” Cook said.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Thursday the U.S. supports Libya’s forming a consolidated government and expects the security service it would field would also want to repel the Islamic State group. But the creation of a new government is not a condition for the U.S. launching unilateral strikes.

“We need to protect ourselves,” Carter said, citing the Islamic State group’s goal of attacking Westerners, and adding that its fighters are trying to “consolidate their own footprint” in Libya.

The U.S. has already conducted airstrikes in Libya, including one in November that targeted and killed an Islamic State group leader. The U.N. estimates as many as 3,000 Islamic State group fighters may be operating in Libya.

The Islamic State group is establishing training bases in Libya, Carter said, recruiting foreign fighters to flock there as it did previously in Iraq and Syria, and “trying to take over the reigns of the economy and tax it” as it does in its current strongholds.

“We don’t want to be on a glidescope to a situation like Syria and Iraq. That’s the reason why we’re watching the situation closely. That’s the reason why we’re developing options for what we might do in the future.”

Military sources say the special operations forces, like many before them who have infiltrated Libya, have gleaned valuable information and are prepared to launch operations now.

But they likely cannot produce a clear plan for how the U.S. could further involve itself in fighting in Libya and win.

The U.S.-led air campaign in 2011 that overthrew the Gadhafi government sent Libya into a tailspin. In 2010 it was producing 1.65 million barrels of oil per day. Now it yields a daily average of 400,000. Instability and infighting over who controls the processing facilities combined with the absence of effective governance further worries European neighbors across the Mediterranean Sea.

At the center of these concerns are the hundreds, possibly even thousands, of warring militias roughly divided among those from the oil rich but economically poor east, and the western portions of the country that Gadhafi favored during his dictatorial rule.

The Islamic State group now operates in Libya under the leadership of foreigners, largely from the Arabian Peninsula, according to a New York Times report. It first gained a foothold in the port city of Sirte and controls roughly 150 miles of coastline, touting the hub as a sort of New Raqqa.

In Libya, the Islamic State group could also capitalize on the anxiety of any militia group that believes the U.S. and its Western partners are favoring its enemies. If forced to retreat, extremists could partner with these opposing militias and hide in the vast swathes of ungoverned territory in the arid nation of 700,000 square miles, in which 80 percent of the population live in cities.

“If we pick ‘Militia A’ to hold territory, ‘Militia B’ is going to be pissed off and say, ‘We will ally with anyone so that we can fight with Militia A to take back that territory.’ ‘Anyone’ is probably the Islamic State,” says Alan J. Kuperman, an expert on Libya and professor at the University of Texas at Austin. “The precondition for actually eliminating the Islamic State in Libya would be to unify the competing militias in Libya. Well, good luck, because that’s going to be a multi-year, if not multi-decade challenge.”

Some members of Congress have expressed concern that the Obama administration’s preliminary plans for Libya won’t work and will only endanger these forces, particularly if it mirrors the current strategy in Iraq and Syria of limiting conventional military trainers to bases and sending out only small teams of commandos to strike Islamic State group targets.

“Putting 50 special operations combatants in this targeting task force, it won’t move the needle. Then our allies won’t see that we’re committed,” says Rep. Ryan Zinke. The Montana Republican, a member of the intelligence subgroup of the Armed Forces Committee, served as a commander in the elite Naval Special Warfare Development Group, known commonly as SEAL Team 6. He operated in Libya during his 23-year tenure as well as other hotspots like Iraq.

It’s commonplace for special operators to infiltrate dangerous countries like Libya, either overtly or undercover, and to do what he calls “senior leader reconnaissance” to determine whether those who control fighters inside war zones are willing to cooperate with the U.S.

A small group of American commandos was engaged in such a mission at Libya’s Wattiya airbase in December, before the local militia demanded they leave and the Libyan air force posted pictures of them on its Facebook page.

Now, as a lawmaker, Zinke is concerned the administration may enter into conflict in Libya with an open mandate, as it has in Iraq and Syria, and without a specific plan for what will define victory and how it will then withdraw U.S. involvement.

“What I see happening is disturbing, particularly with the rules of engagement and this administration’s refusal to put a force package in that will move the needle or will aid victory in our lifetime.”

He isn’t the only one with military experience who may believe the plan for Libya must differ from Obama’s ongoing campaign against the Islamic State group.

Administration officials routinely describe the strategy in Iraq and Syria as one to “defeat and ultimately destroy the Islamic State group,” adding that victory could take years, if not decades. They define the U.S. military involvement by its restraint, in favor of prompting regional forces to do more militarily.

Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, seemed to differ from this slow-and-steady assessment when he first announced the military was considering operations in Libya.

“We’re looking at taking decisive military action against ISIL [in Libya] in conjunction with a legitimate political process,” Dunford told reporters during a recent trip to Paris for talks with U.S. senior military counterparts there.

"It's a pretty complex situation, and we just need to make sure that what we're doing is nested in a political end-state," he said. "Unchecked, I am concerned about the spread of ISIL in Libya.”





