Bird flu hits Xmas turkeys; world poultry trade's first decline since 1997
Bird flu has impacted the US poultry industry this year, with turkey farmers and egg producers hardest hit, as it spread throughout the Midwest over the year. Around 50 million birds were lost in the US either to disease or culling, sending prices of whole frozen turkeys 15% higher YoY. Many countries, such as Mexico, Japan and Singapore, have restricted US poultry imports, leading to forecasts that exports have fallen 10% YoY. Furthermore, bird flu has now spread from France to Germany, resulting in German authorities culling over 13,000 birds at a poultry farm in Germany's Bavaria state. The total number of bird flu cases in France has now increased to six, following the recent detection in the Dordogne and Landes regions, which we previously highlighted; this resulted in at least eight countries banning French poultry imports. Despite a rise in global demand for chicken, the overall poultry trade is expected to fall for the first time in almost two decades this year, with global exports predicted to decline about 2.3%. Of further note, US lean hog prices have dropped significantly by over 60% Yo and a third lower than where they started in 2015, due to lower grain and feed prices.

Poultry market set to suffer following US avian flu outbreak

Christmas is nearly here, but high turkey prices could end up spoiling the fun for some.

The cost of the festive bird has been pushed higher by an outbreak of avian flu that occurred in the US earlier this year, and this is likely to impact global trade of turkey, according to the FT.

During the spring and summer of 2015, a case of influenza hit the US and then rapidly spread through the mid-west, with around 50m birds dying as a result, either because of disease or culling.

This has had impacts beyond the US – Mexico, Singapore and Japan are among the countries that have stopped importing turkey from there, and overall US turkey exports are expected to drop 10 per cent in 2015 compared to last year.

Currently, the price of frozen wholesale turkeys is 15 per cent higher than this time last year, with cost now at an average of $1.30 to a pound. That said, it's a slight drop from the $1.40 to a pound they were priced at just before Thanksgiving.

Those willing to substitute turkey for chicken will have a fuller wallet at the end – chicken has been largely unaffected by the outbreak, as most chicken farms in the US are located in areas beyond the zone hit by the influenza outbreak.