
How Close Is Iran to a Nuclear Weapon? - n0pe_p0pe
https://www.wired.com/story/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-weapon-heres-what-we-know/
======
aazaa
> ... Centrifuges allow scientists to separate the two uranium isotopes
> because the heavier isotope—uranium-238—is pushed to the outside of the
> rapidly spinning machine while the uranium-235 clusters in the middle. By
> repeating this process over and over again, scientists can push
> concentrations of uranium-235 from less than 1 percent to above 90 percent.

It's worth mentioning that the centrifuge operates on a gaseous form of
uranium: UF6. As the centrifuge spins, the slightly lower density of 235-UF6
relative to 238-UF6 causes the former to remain toward the center of the
centrifuge with the latter drawn toward the outside.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zippe-
type_centrifuge#Centrifu...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zippe-
type_centrifuge#Centrifuge_uranium_enrichment)

The hard part is that the centrifuge must be spun at very high speed (90,000
RPM), or close to mach 2 linear velocity. The materials and manufacture must
be top quality to withstand the forces involved.

It's also worth pointing out that this sensitivity was exploited by Stuxnet -
a US-developed cyber attack that caused Iran's centrifuges to disable certain
protocols that prevented damage during the high-RPM spinning.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet)

------
luxuryballs
“Does that mean Iran is now racing to develop a nuclear weapon? Probably not,”

Not really sure what the point of this article is, with the amount of reasons
they gave in this article you could just as easily say “probably so”.

Why wouldn’t they? And why would they publish the real numbers if they were?

If they are within striking distance of someone else who does have the bomb
then they damn well better be making them. Someone put me in check here but I
think this fact has more substance than this entire article...

~~~
IfOnlyYouKnew
They very loudly did not announce a resumption of the weapons program. They're
probably trying to leave a door open, wait a year and see if aa return to
normalcy is possible with a new administration.

Right now, they have most of Europe sympathetic to their side, because it's
rather obviously not them arbitrarily breaking treaties, or calling for the
demolition of cultural sites (a tactic last used by the Taliban).

~~~
tzs
> [...] the demolition of cultural sites (a tactic last used by the Taliban)

Hasn't ISIS been doing that more recently than the Taliban?

~~~
LyndsySimon
If you want to go there, Saudi Arabia is still doing it. You just don’t hear
about it as much.

------
tracer4201
I didn’t take away much from the article. I fear theocratic governments and
don’t want any of them to have nuclear capabilities. I’m also afraid that any
country like the US having unchecked power and a population whose opinions are
easily malleable is a danger to other countries. We decide who is a
“terrorist” or who isn’t. We decide who to sanction or who can trade and
travel freely. Our “allies” mostly fall in line and support any policy we
have, although that seems to be fading a bit recently... but I digress.

------
tsomctl
About 4000 miles to North Korea ([https://www.distancefromto.net/distance-
from-iran-to-north-k...](https://www.distancefromto.net/distance-from-iran-to-
north-korea))

[https://duckduckgo.com/?q=iran-
north+korea+nuclear+cooperati...](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=iran-
north+korea+nuclear+cooperation&atb=v173-1&ia=web)

~~~
Perenti
Depends where the US, British and French submarines are, but I doubt it's more
than 20 minutes.

------
lurker2823
The sooner Iran gets one, the sooner they can stop getting targeted by US /
Israeli aggression. I'd help them if I could.

~~~
sixQuarks
I don't support the repressive Iranian regime, however, there's no denying the
US has been a terrible bully. I feel really bad for their people.

The US overthrew their popular, secular government in the 50s and installed a
brutal puppet government. The Iranian revolution in the 70s was Islamic mainly
because the Mosques were the few places the puppet government did not fully
monitor, so the religious rulers were the only ones who could gather and
strategize a plan.

The US has been trying to make an example out of Iran since the 70s, for the
crime of not accepting the puppet government.

The level of propaganda going on in the US is unbelievable. The vast majority
of Americans have no idea about the sequence of events that I laid out. I
don't blame you for feeling this way, it's a very unfair situation for the
Iranian people.

~~~
lurker2823
I completely agree, I don't really support the regime, but I support them more
than the US shenanigans in the region. I believe that once the US stops making
an example of out Iran, change will happen organically within the nation.

------
CapitalistCartr
Iran has had a nuclear weapons program probably since 1981, although more in
hope than substance in that decade. Then with Russian aid since the Nineties.
Stuxnet didn't amount to more than a speedbump. And yet, still no nuke. Nukes
are hard, but obviously there is a bigger problem. Most likely their inability
to attract/keep the best minds under their theocracy. Their scientist's
exploding problem doesn't help.

Whatever the reason, roughly three decades, with Russian aid for most, and
still no nuke says their program is deeply flawed.

~~~
IfOnlyYouKnew
How about the three years under a strict moratorium, with ongoing inspections?
At the beginning of which they shipped 80% of all radioactive material, and
100% of the highly enriched stuff out of the country?

Could that be a reason for their setback?

~~~
CapitalistCartr
It's _not_ a "setback". Their program has failed to produce. They didn't
produce results for decades prior to the treaty.

~~~
Gibbon1
Being realistic took the US three years to develop a nuclear weapon in the
1940's. That's one side of things. The other is South Africa and North Korea
all developed nuclear weapons. As did Pakistan. And Israel.

Given that the only explanation that makes sense vis Iran is they haven't
developed nukes because they don't want to violate the Non-Proliferation
treaty.

------
lightedman
We were touting Iran having nuclear power in Nat'l Geo magazines from the 70s.

You can bet money they've had a nuclear arsenal for some time.

~~~
nexuist
>You can bet money they've had a nuclear arsenal for some time.

If true, why would they not announce it?

~~~
lightedman
Do you just go up to a Texas Holdem poker table and tell everyone you've got
two kings before the first part of the river is even dealt?

It's called playing your cards to your chest.

~~~
nexuist
There is no point in keeping nuclear warheads secret. Not a single nation with
nuclear capability has ever been invaded since the bomb was invented. It is
geopolitically infeasible.

North Korea knows this well. If Iran got the nuke and told us, their general
would be alive today and the chance of war would be near 0. Nobody would touch
a nuclear Iran.

~~~
lightedman
"There is no point in keeping nuclear warheads secret."

Keeping bigger countries off your ass is one reason. Future surprise attacks
are another reason. An emergency defensive show of force right before an
impending invasion would be another.

There're plenty of reasons to keep almost anything a secret.

~~~
ramphastidae
This is absurd. You keep "bigger countries off your ass" specifically by
informing them you have nuclear warheads. The whole point is to inform them.
How exactly would you deter them otherwise? This has been established for
decades:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory#Rational_det...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory#Rational_deterrence_theory)

And if Iran has secret nukes, how do you possibly explain Stuxnet?

~~~
lightedman
"You keep "bigger countries off your ass" specifically by informing them you
have nuclear warheads."

Not if you don't want tons of spies all up in your shit, you don't.

"And if Iran has secret nukes, how do you possibly explain Stuxnet?"

As if that stops them from secretly importing refined material.

