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Special Report: State-by-State Analysis Reveals Republican Shift

by Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Poll Managing Editor

A person's party identification is generally the most powerful
predictor of his or her political behavior. As such, Gallup asks
respondents in every poll, "As of today, do you consider yourself a
Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?" Those who do not
identify as a Republican or Democrat are asked toward which party
they lean. The notion of a partisan "leaner" is extremely
meaningful from a political perspective, as Americans who are
independent but lean toward one of the parties usually vote for
that party.

An analysis of Gallup Polls conducted in 2002* provides the
basis for estimating the political party identification of the
residents in each of the 48 contiguous states and the District of
Columbia (Hawaii and Alaska are not included in Gallup's national
polling). In 28 states, more residents identified themselves as
Republicans than Democrats, while in 20 states and the District of
Columbia more identified themselves as Democrats than Republicans.
Even so, the fact Democrats have advantages in some of the more
populous states means that the national partisanship figures are
essentially even. Wyoming is the most heavily Republican state and
Massachusetts is the most Democratic. However, the nation's
capital, Washington, D.C., is overwhelmingly Democratic, exceeding
Massachusetts by a considerable amount. A comparison of 2002
results to 1993 Gallup Poll data reveals that in most states the
party identification of residents has shifted in favor of the
GOP.

Measuring Party ID

Gallup's party identification analysis for 2002 is based on
aggregated data from nearly 45,000 interviews from 44 different
telephone surveys conducted throughout the year. Across all these
surveys, 33% of Americans identified as Republicans, 32% as
Democrats, and 34% as independents. When the leanings of
independents are allocated to both major parties, 45.1% of
Americans can be considered Republicans and 44.7% Democrats.

These data can be analyzed at the state-level to get a read on
the partisan proclivities of each of the contiguous states plus the
District of Columbia. Because the percentage of political
independents varies greatly by state (ranging from just 22% in
Oklahoma to as much as 54% in Rhode Island), it is best to use the
total Republican and Democratic figures (including partisan
leaners) to compare states.

State Party Identification in 2002

Gallup's 2002 polling aggregate shows that 28 states had a
greater percentage of Republicans and Republican leaners than
Democrats and Democratic leaners, and 20 states and the District of
Columbia had a greater percentage of Democrats and Democratic
leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners.

Hawaii and Alaska are not included in Gallup's national polling,
but given their states' voting patterns, Hawaii would probably have
a Democratic advantage and Alaska a Republican advantage, yielding
29 Republican and 22 Democratic states in 2002. Given the closeness
of the national partisanship figures, it is clear that the
Republican advantage in number of states is offset by the fact that
some of the most heavily populated states, such as California, New
York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, tilt Democratic.

The following table gives a more detailed account of the states
in terms of the difference in Republican and Democratic identifiers
(with leaners allocated to the appropriate party). Positive numbers
indicate a Republican advantage and negative numbers indicate a
Democratic advantage.

The noncoastal Western region of the country appears to be a
Republican stronghold -- the states with the biggest Republican
advantages are Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Nebraska, and
Mississippi. Wyoming has three Republican identifiers and leaners
for every one Democrat, and Utah has two Republicans for every one
Democrat. More than six in 10 residents in Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah
are Republican/Republican leaners, and 10 states have 50% or more
Republicans/Republican leaners.

Six states and the District of Columbia have 50% or more
Democrats/Democratic leaners. Most are located in the Northeast --
the most Democratic states are Massachusetts, Maryland, Arkansas,
and New York. The District of Columbia is the most politically
uncompetitive locality looked at, with 85% of its residents
identifying as Democrats and only 13% as Republicans.

Eight states are closely divided in their partisan leanings,
having less than a two-percentage point difference in the
percentage of Republicans and Democrats residing in the state.
These include Iowa, Florida, Vermont, Oklahoma, Michigan, Kentucky,
Minnesota, and Missouri. These data show Iowa to be the most evenly
divided state. In more than 1,000 interviews conducted with Iowans
in 2002 Gallup Polls, 44.0% identify as Republicans or lean
Republican and 43.8% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.

Independent-Minded States

As mentioned above, the proportion of people who identified as
political independents in 2002 (including those who subsequently
said they lean toward one of the parties) varied greatly by state.
The tendency to think of oneself as an independent is greater in
the Northeast than anywhere else. A majority of those living in
Rhode Island and Massachusetts said they were political
independents. However, many of the political independents in Rhode
Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut say they lean toward the
Democratic Party and those states typically vote Democratic for
president and U.S. Senate.

At the other end of the spectrum, less than one quarter of those
living in Oklahoma (22.3%), Kentucky (24.8%), and Pennsylvania
(24.9%) are political independents. It is harder to characterize
the states with lower proportions of independents, as they come
from different parts of the country -- Oklahoma, North Carolina,
and Louisiana in the South; Pennsylvania and the District of
Columbia in the mid-Atlantic region; Nebraska and Kansas in the
Midwest; and Wyoming in the West.

Change Over Time

While residents in specific states tend to reliably support one
party over time, change can and does occur. The most dramatic
example of this in recent years has occurred in the South, which
used to vote overwhelmingly Democratic but now for the most part
supports Republican candidates. Even though Southerners have
traditionally identified as Democrats, the region has tended to be
ideologically conservative, and over time the Republican Party has
gained considerable influence in the South. Migration patterns to
and from specific states also can play a role in those states'
political leanings. Also, specific political effects (such as
George W. Bush's overwhelming popularity in 2002) can cause
short-term partisanship changes.

Gallup data show that there has been much change in
state-specific partisanship since 1993. At that time, 35 states
(plus the District of Columbia) showed at least a slight Democratic
edge, while just 13 tilted toward the Republicans. A comparison of
these findings to the current data shows a net shift of 15 states
toward the Republican Party in the last 10 years. This reflects the
fact that throughout much of 2002 Gallup Polls showed more
Americans identifying as Republicans than as Democrats, a change
from the more typical finding over the last decade that the
Democratic Party had at least a slight edge over the Republicans
among the general population. Indeed since 1990, Republicans have
only had an advantage in party ID two years, 2002 and 1991, when
success in the Persian Gulf War made the elder George Bush
extremely popular among Americans.

As today, Wyoming had the biggest Republican advantage of any
state in 1993. Kansas, Idaho, Nebraska, Utah, and Nevada were also
among the most heavily Republican states. Note that with the
exception of South Carolina, every Southern state had more
Democrats than Republicans in 1993. The most Democratic states at
that time included the District of Columbia, Louisiana, West
Virginia, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maryland. The most
competitive states in 1993 were Colorado, South Carolina, Montana,
Virginia, Florida, South Dakota, and New Mexico.

Comparing the data from 1993 and 2002 gives a sense of which
states have become more Republican and which have become more
Democratic over the last 10 years. The following table shows the
change in the partisan advantages between 1993 and 2002. Positive
numbers indicate that the Republicans have made gains in relation
to the Democrats, while negative numbers indicate that Democrats
have made gains in relation to the Republicans. For example, in
1993, Democrats had a 10-point edge over Republicans in Ohio. By
2002, the Republicans had gained an edge of 8.5 points, for a net
shift of 18.5 points to the Republican Party.

Only seven states plus the District of Columbia became more
Democratic in political orientation between 2002 and 1993: Maine,
New Jersey, Connecticut, Kansas, Vermont, Arkansas, and Nevada.
Conversely, 41 states have seen Republican gains, including all of
the Southern states except for Arkansas. The states that have seen
the largest movement toward Republicans include Utah, Mississippi,
Louisiana, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Missouri. Maryland, Washington,
Massachusetts, Nevada, and Florida have shown the least change in
partisanship since 1993.

*Results for 2002 are based on telephone interviews with 44,889
national adults from randomly selected national samples of adults,
aged 18 years older, conducted in 2002. Results for 1993 are based
on telephone interviews with 27,319 national adults from randomly
selected national samples of adults, aged 18 and older, conducted
in 1993. For results based on an individual state, the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects varies,
from a low of plus or minus 2 percentage points in California to a
high of plus or minus 13 percentage points in Washington, D.C. In
addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.

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