Monte Carlo simulation of the risk of contamination of apples with Escherichia coli O157:H7.
Quantitative descriptions of the frequency and extent of contamination of apple cider with pathogenic bacteria were obtained using literature data and computer simulation. Probability distributions were chosen to describe the risk of apple contamination by each suspected pathway. Tree-picked apples may be contaminated by birds infected with Escherichia coli O157:H7 when orchards were located near a sewage source (ocean or landfill). Dropped apples could become contaminated from either infected animal droppings or from contaminated manure if used as fertilizer. A risk assessment model was created in Analytica. The results of worst-case simulations revealed that 6-9 log CFU E. coli O157:H7 might be found on a harvest of 1000 dropped apples, while 3-4 log CFU contamination could be present on 1000 tree-picked apples. This model confirms that practices such as using dropped apples and using animal waste as fertilizer increase risk in the production of apple cider, and that pasteurization may not eliminate all contamination in juice from heavily contaminated fruit. Recently published FDA regulations for juices requiring a 5-log CFU/ml reduction of pathogenic bacteria in fresh juices should be a fail-safe measure for apples harvested in all but the worst-case scenarios.