Latest data shows greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.6% in the year to March, but government points to benefit of LNG exports

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise despite the Morrison government claiming it is taking “sensible, responsible action” to address the climate crisis, the latest official data shows.

National emissions increased by 3.1m tonnes in the year to March to reach 538.9m tonnes, a 0.6% jump on the previous year, the report released on Friday revealed.

Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation continue to decrease, reflecting the falling cost of solar and wind energy, but this is being more than cancelled out by the growth in emissions from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry, mostly in northern Western Australia. Emissions from LNG were up 4.7m tonnes over the year.

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The report, published by the environment department, does not include a graph that shows the change in annual emissions over time, preferring instead analyses that suggest Australia’s carbon footprint is improving based on per capita and per dollar of GDP calculations. The graphs below are independently derived from the official data.

Total national emissions have increased each year since the government abolished a national carbon price in 2014.

The increase in emissions according to official data was not as great as forecast by the private emissions-tracking organisation Ndevr Environmental, which suggested electricity emissions had started to increase again.

The emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor, said emissions fell by 0.4% in the March quarter compared with the previous quarter. Taylor said if LNG exports were excluded Australia’s emissions would have declined by 0.3% over the year and stressed the economic benefit of the LNG industry. Gas exports increased by 18.8% last year and were estimated to be worth $47.8bn.

Taylor also repeated his claim that Australia’s LNG emissions have the potential to cut global emissions by up to 152m tonnes a year by replacing coal for electricity generation in parts of Asia.

As the Guardian has reported, this figure is based on a back-of-envelope calculation and not an analysis of whether gas is being used to replace coal.

The evidence that is available suggests gas is often not replacing coal. The government’s office of the chief economist last month advised that in Japan, Australia’s biggest LNG market, gas is increasingly competed with zero-emissions nuclear and renewable power.

The report shows emissions increased in most parts of the economy. They were up from stationary energy (including manufacturing, construction and commercial sectors), transport, fugitive emissions from coal seams and natural gas production, industrial processes, the waste industry and land use including forestry.

They were down in electricity generation and agriculture, the latter mostly due to a decline in livestock caused by the drought.

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Labor’s climate change spokesperson, Mark Butler, said the increase in emissions was no surprise given the government’s plan to address it was to spend another $2bn on the “failed” emissions reduction fund introduced under former prime minister Tony Abbott.

He said government projections showed emissions were expected to increase until 2030 under current policies. “Australians have come to expect this from a government that is not serious on taking real action on climate change,” he said.

Greens climate change spokesperson, Adam Bandt, said Australia was “on a collision course with climate disaster”. “When excluding unreliable land use data, it is the highest twelve months of pollution in Australia’s history,” he said.

Matt Rose, an economist with the Australian Conservation Foundation, said burning coal and gas was the main driver of the climate crisis and Australia was now the number one exporter of both.

He said Australia’s stance was completely inconsistent with the global energy transition needed to meet targets met at the 2015 Paris summit. “The federal government will need to explain to the world how it intends to meet its Paris targets when the international community meets in New York in September for the UN secretary-general’s summit on climate action,” he said.