The environmental impact of dairy production on poorly drained soils under future climate scenarios for Ireland.
The environmental impact of dairy production in Ireland has been widely studied and it is known that regional differences in management and impact are driven by climate. Climate change projections for Ireland predict increasing temperature, change in rainfall patterns and decreasing in solar radiation, varying by agroclimatic region. This study evaluated the environmental impacts of low-cost, grass-based, rotational-grazing dairy production on poorly drained soils under climate change. The Dairy_sim model was used to determine the theoretical optimum dairy system management for five different locations in Ireland assuming a poorly drained soil resource under baseline (1981-2000) and future climate scenarios (2041-2060, high and low emissions scenarios). An optimum system was defined as having maximum grass production and grazed grass in the diet, minimum necessary silage, minimum imported feed, minimum housing days and a very small silage surplus. Life cycle assessment was then used to quantify the environmental impacts (climate change, eutrophication and acidification) for all scenarios. The dairy production systems were predicted to be more productive in the future, with climate change impacts per unit milk reduced or the same, acidification impacts reduced and eutrophication impacts reduced. The absolute emissions driving climate change and eutrophication were predicted to significantly increase for the future low emission scenario, and emissions driving acidification were predicted to slightly increase. The predictions indicate that system adaptation to mitigate absolute emissions are needed rather than just policies that focus on impacts per unit output.