Economic Analysis of Poverty Status of Small-Scale Farmers in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

The study analyzed the household poverty status of small scale farmers in Bayelsa State, Nigeria using a multi-stage random sampling technique to sample six hundred farmers. Data were collected using structured questionnaire and were analyzed using descriptive statistics, FGT [1] index and the logistic regression model. The result revealed that the majority of the farmers 80% were females, while 79% of the respondent was married with 46% of them having no formal education. Twenty-seven (27) percent of the crop farmers are poor while thirtyeight (38) of the livestock farmers were poor. Also, the poverty depth and severity of crop farmers were 0.072 and 0.038 respectively whereas they were 0.098 and 0.052 respectively for the livestock farmers. The logistic regression model revealed that age, educational level, household size, farming experience, farm/herd size, household income, household expenditure and membership of cooperative contributed significantly in determining the poverty status of the farmers. This study therefore recommends measures needed to be put in place to encourage and improve the welfare of the farming household towards productive and sustainable agricultural development for poverty reduction.

the 20 poorest countries in the world. Over 70% of the population is classified as poor, with 35% living in absolute poverty. Poverty is especially severe in the rural areas, where social services and infrastructure are limited or non-existent. Majority of those who live in rural areas are poor and depend on the agriculture for food and income.
The concern on the threat posed by poverty has led the Nigerian government over the years to devote considerable attention to alleviating its scourge through various policy projects and programmes which seems not to have stem the ugly situation till date. In view of these, the question about the poverty status of rural dwellers especially the small scale farmers remained unanswered.
It is on this premise that this study was carried out to answer these questions.

Study Area
The study was conducted in Bayelsa State, Nigeria. It is located between latitude 5 0 00 1 to 10 0 30 1 N and longitude 4 0 55 1 to 6 0 00 1 E and covers an estimated land area of 1,810km 2 with a population of about 856,729 thousand [12].

Sampling Procedure and Sample Size
The sampling involved a multistage random sampling technique.
Firstly, six (6) local government areas were randomly selected using the proportionate sampling method at 75% precision level from the purposively selected three (3) agricultural zones according to Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) structure. In the second stage, ten (10) villages were also randomly selected from the six (6) LGAs each making a total of sixty (60) villages. The third stage involved a simple random selection of five (5) crop and five (5) livestock farmers each from the villages using the list provided by ADP from each of the villages. A total of six hundred (600) respondent farmers were used.

Data Collection
Both primary and secondary data were used for the study. The collection of primary data was achieved using a set of structure questionnaire that was administered by the researcher and trained enumerators complemented with oral interview, information that was collected covered the areas of socio-economic characteristics, farming operations, and income and expenditure patterns. the extremely poor (those whose income was less than one-third of MPCI), the moderately poor (those whose income lies between onethird and two-third of the poverty line) and the non-poor (those whose income was above two-third of the poverty line).
Adult equivalents were generated following Nathan and Lawrence [14], thus:

Logit Regression Model
A binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the determinants of poverty. Thus, poverty is the dependent variable and is determined by independent variables such as socioeconomic characteristics of households and access to services. The L i = log of the odd ratio, which is not only linear in Xi but also linear in the parameters, P i = is the probability of being poor and ranges from 0 to 1.
Z i = the function of the explanatory variables (x) which is expressed explicitly as:     Table 2 shows the summary of the poverty incidence (P 0 ), depth  shows that about 87% of the outcome (Likelihood of being poor)

Factors Influencing Poverty Status of the Respondents
can be explained by the selected independent variables captured in the model (Table 3). The coefficient of age of the farmer was significant and negatively related to the probability of a household becoming poor. This implies that the age of the farmers is a causative factor of poverty.
As age of the farmers increase, the likelihood of being non poor is reduced. This conforms to a priori expectations and work by Ayalneh [15], Obiesesan [16], who opined that older households had greater likelihood of being non-poor. This may be attributed to increased experience and exposure to farming operations and management practices as their age increases.
A positive and significant relationship was found between educational qualification and the likelihood of being non-poor, hence, the higher the educational level, the lower the tendency of been poor. The result is in conformity to a priori expectations and work by Ogwunike [16] who found that a positive significant relationship existed between educational level and the probability of being non-poor. The coefficient of household size was negative and was significant at 1% level. This implies that, the higher the household size, the more likely to become poor. Ceteris paribus.
This could be as a result of the fact that the members of such households would have to depend on the limited resources that is available to the household thereby reducing the per capita income of the household. This is in agreement to a priori expectations and work by Khan [5] and Ogwumike [16].
A positive and significant relationship was found between farming experience and the likelihood of being non poor at 5% level. This implies that the higher the years of farming, the higher the probability of being non-poor. This is in conformity to a priori expectations and work by Omonona [10] who stated that exposures and experiences gathered over the years help rural poor people to fight poverty. The author further opined that experience in farming help to reduce losses thereby encouraging proper handling and management of relatively scarce resources. There was a positive and significant relationship between farm/herd size and the likelihood of being non-poor. This implies that as the farm/herd size of the farmer increases, the probability of the household being nonpoor is increased. This finding conforms to a priori expectations and work by Eneyew [17] and Alemu [18] who found that a unit increase in land holding increased the probability of being nonpoor. The coefficient of household income was significant at 1% level and positively related. This implies that as the household income increase, the probability of being non-poor increases. This is in agreement to a priori expectations and work by Alemu [18] who found a positive relationship between household income and the likelihood of being non-poor.
In conformity to a priori expectations, the coefficient of household expenditure was negative and significant at 5% level.
This indicated that, the higher the household expenditure, the lower the likelihood of being non-poor. Ogwumike [19] stated that, excessive expenditure by household head is a pointer to poverty.
The coefficient of membership of cooperative was positive and significant at 5% level. This implies that, if a household head is a member of cooperative, the likelihood of being non-poor increases.
This will not be unconnected with the fact that members of cooperative in the rural settings help their cooperative members in time of needs and also provide incentive and loan facilities to those in need.

Conclusion
The research has shown that, the incidence, depth and severity of poverty were high among the farming households even though some of the farmers fall above the poverty line. The study has also shown that the rate of poverty is relatively higher among livestock farmers compared to crop farmers. Meanwhile, the study has revealed that several factors influences the poverty status of the farming households such as age, educational level, household size, farming experience, farm/herd size, household income, household expenditure and membership of cooperative [20].
Given these findings, therefore, it is recommended that:


Food Reserve and Sustainable Development in Malaysia from Islamic Perspectives

Food is one of the essential factors for human being. Hence, this factor has become one of the key elements in Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The SDG targets to end hunger, achieves food security and improves nutrition, and promotes sustainable agriculture. To achieve these targets, a solid food security is called for. However, this depends on the food availability, accessibility, and the way it has been utilized. Hence it is important for the food reserve in a country to achieve a certain level. A satisfying level of food reserve enables the stability for food prices in the market and to avoid price manipulation. This will then lead to not only a good level of food security, as the society feels safe and confident with the steady supply and availability of food but it also contributes to a stable economic and social conditions for the country. These conditions will result in a sustainable development of the nation at least for the commoners. Therefore, this paper will discuss the food reserve and sustainable development in Malaysia. The discussion is conducted based on the Islamic perspectives by using secondary data. Result shows that Islam emphasizes the spiritual elements of natural and economic resources of the food reserve. In order to achieve sustainability in the national food security, Malaysia, by its government, has incorporated the food security elements in the country’s policies planning and implementations.

Introduction
Food reserve encompasses sufficient food supply and food production for the citizens of a country. Crucial situations like natural disasters, the drastically increased food price and the change of the climate have led to the pressing demand for robust food reserve. The dramatic increase of world's rice price in 2008 (Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industry, 2011) and natural disasters in the East Coast and part of the West Coast have previously shown the importance of having a strong food reserve.
However, the focus of the development of the service and manufacturing sectors that respectively contribute 53.5 percent and 23.0 percent of the Malaysian gross national income (Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), 2016) indicates that a more concerted effort is needed to materialise the intention. Even the exploitation of the land and water resources in materialising the aim is feared to bring about a greater detriment to the country and the society. Green development is proposed as a method in addressing the side effect of this process. Due to this, this paper work intends to look closely into the green development and food reserve implemented in Malaysia. This observation is carried out based on the Islamic perspective to get this particular stance regarding this issue. The discussion begins by identifying policies related to national food reserve and followed by extracting green development element found in the policy formulated. At the end of the discussion, the Islamic perspective towards the outcome is put forth with the support of Quranic verses in regard of the issues discussed.

Policies and Program related to the Malaysian Food Reserve
The national policy is a requirement to support the national economy, social and politics. To realise the country's demand and the requirement, the national policy is formed for the specifically short and long terms to strengthen the national food security. Based on the purpose of the working paper, the concentration towards the policy related to the specific effort to prepare the food supply has been carried out. Table 1 shows the policies related to the food reserve from the year 2011 until 2016.  Increase food production through the use of land optimally, intensive sustainable farming and large scale paddy plantation in the paddy fields.  The determination of food commodity based on the national resources and production capacity.  Food production areas in the corridor development areas with the cooperation of state government.  Integrated agriculture practice will be encouraged, with the aid of the replantation. Cooperation with the commodity industry will be enhanced to expand the activity of food production in lands that are not planted with commodity plants or crops. For example, the National Food Reserve by the Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) will further be activated such as the production of bananas, chillies, meat cows (lembu pedaging) and tilapias. Explore into the production of high-value agricultural commodity products Some of the commodities include paddy, aquaculture, herbs and spices, fruits, organic vegetables, weeds, feedlot cows and dairy products. Paddy production in paddy fields will be enhanced through the irrigation infrastructure and sufficient irrigation, the use of quality, high-return paddy seeds, accurate agricultural technology practice and more effective agronomy management.
-Develop effective and sustainable catch for fishery industry -Strengthen the fish-catching industry -Rearrange the shore fishery industry -Livestock Increase the effectiveness of the ruminant livestock industry Strengthen the effectiveness of disease control and expand save slaughtering and processing Develop the industry of other livestocks such as turkey, rabbit and deer Balance local supplies and import Vegetable, fruits and coconut industry Increase the productivity and the expansion of the vegetable production areas Improve the post-harvesting approach and marketing logistics facilities Strengthen the organic vegetable market Increase the fruit production commercially especially export fruits Enhance the replantation and area rehabilitation also improve the coconut areas integration program. The field of Focus C: Modernising the Agricultural Sector Increase the productivity and the income of the farmers, fishermen and small-scale farmers through the broader use of the ICT and agricultural technology, the maintaining and the use of agricultural land in an optimal way and the activation of R&D&C in the field of priority Increase the training and the development of young agropreneurs through the cooperation between agencies and private agencies to modernise the agricultural techniques and inculcate more novice companies. To strengthen the institutional support and the service of expansion and encourage the service of consultation from the industry and the academia. To empower the capability of the cooperation and agricultural associations along he supply chain by integrating vertically the supply chain for selected crops, increase the management skills and look for the resources for promotion and export. Improve the market and logistics access by strengthening logistics support and increase the access to the domestic and international markets. Broaden the access of agricultural funding through the restructuring of the loan repayment mechanism and increase the sustainability of the funding mechanism for the replantation program Intensify the incentive program based on the performance and certification by encouraging farmers to obtain farm certification and giving priority to farms that obtain the certificates for incentive and support.
Sabah Development Corridor 800 local participants have been trained to become technology entrepreneurs in the agricultural-based industry through the exposure and transfer of knowledge in processing agriculture food and natural resource-based specific products Renewable Energy Corridor in Sarawak Unit Peneraju Agenda Bumiputera (TERAJU) has allocated RM100 million to develop entrepreneurs, including RM1.5 million for the processing of fish food and surimi. Dana Mudahcara totalling RM16.1 million has been allocated to four local companies to prepare the support service to PETRONAS and Bintulu Fort.
The building and space that are not used in town will be benefited as the city-agricultural area through the modern techniques like fertigation, hydroponic and vertical agriculture. This initiative will be led by the cooperative movements in the majority of locations inhabited by household B40. The town agricultural activity will supply food for the use of the local community.
Increase the endurance of the agricultural sector Research and development especially about the agricultural practice that considers the intensified climate change and good agricultural practice will be expanded to 500 fruits and vegetables, 160 farms and 65 new aquaculture farms.
In the agrofood subsector, the establishment of Food Production Permanent City or Taman Kekal Pengeluaran Makanan (TKPM) involving an area spanning 6,105 hectares has benefited 453 farmers Budget for 2016 Source: Ministry of Finance Malaysia (2016) Modernizing the Agricultural Sector The total number of allocation is RM 5.3 billion  Specific to the high-impact programs such as fruits and vegetables plantation programs also the matching grant and research of herb products and fishery in the cage;  90 million ringgit is allocated for the Young Agropreneur Development Program in the form of in-kind grant, Entrepreneur Funding Fund, rebranding of MARDI, Veterinarian Office, Agriculture Office, Fishery Office, and implementation of the Multiplier Farm Project for the farming of cows and domestic fowl.  The incentive scope is also broadened to the deer, mushrooms, coconut, sea weed, bees and kelulut also crops for livestock like tapioca and sweet potatoes.  70 million ringgit as the subsidy of fertilizer of dry paddy is prepared to increase the food supply and income of dry paddy planters, covering an area spanning 64 thousand hectares in Sarawak and 11 thousand hectares in Sabah Table 1 shows three main national policies formulated and being implemented today until the year 2020. The planning and execution of this policy is part of the Malaysian effort in the framework of achieving developed nation and high income status as the coming years approach. This is as stated in the Government Transformation Program in the last phase carried out from the year 2015 to 2020 that will lead Malaysia to the said aim (Performance Management & Delivery Unit (PEMANDU), 2011).
Through the three policies, it is proof enough of Malaysia's initiative in heading towards the status of developed country. An observation shows that there is a specific emphasis on the enhanced agricultural activity encompassing livestock, fruits, vegetables and several commodities. The proof is that in 2016 for example, an amount of RM 5.3 billion was allocated to materialise the intention to modernize the agricultural sector. The allocation and expenditure towards this sector are determined by the self-sufficiency level (SSL) (Arshad, Alias, Noh & Tasrif, 2011:84). This self-sufficiency level in Malaysia refers to the rice production that is the staple food for the people in Malaysia. The study by Arshad, Jani and Yusof (2010) suggests that Malaysia today has achieved successful self-sustenance level especially rice, although we are still unable to become rice exporters like Indonesia and Vietnam. Table 2 shows clearly the rice production for selected ASEAN countries in 2015.  (2016) Paddy production experiences threat because of the factors of trade globalisation and liberalisation that open the space for competition with a cheaper international paddy market (Mikail, Abdullah, Ramli, Sood, 2013). To overcome this situation, the main initiative in the Agrofood Policy to increase food production through optimal land use, sustainable intensive farming and grand-scale paddy plantation at the paddy fields (Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industry, 2011) has been formulated. The use of national resources and land development is allowed by Allah SWT (Islam, 2004). This provides evidence of the steps taken by Malaysia in intensifying food production at par with the effort to preserve the environment.

Food Reserve Related Policies and Sustainable Development
Food security is an important aspect in achieving the stage of developed country sustainably. Through the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) put forth by the United Nations in 2016, the stress towards the aspect of food security can be seen through the second aim of SDG which is to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. These goals encompassed eight targets to be achieved by 2030 namely: i. To end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round ii. To end all forms of malnutrition, including achieving the internationally agreed targets at stunting and wasting in children under five years of age by 2025, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women, and older persons iii. To double the agricultural productivity and the incomes of small-scale food producers, particularly women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets, and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment iv. To ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen the capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality v. To maintain genetic diversity of seeds by 2020, cultivated plants, farmed and domesticated animals and their related wild species, including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks at national, regional and international levels, and ensure access to and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge as internationally agreed vi. To increase investment, including through enhanced international cooperation, in rural infrastructure, agricultural research and extension services, technology development, and plant and livestock gene banks to enhance agricultural productive capacity in developing countries, in particular in least developed countries vii. To correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets including the parallel elimination of all forms of agricultural export subsidies and all export measures with equivalent effect, in accordance with the mandate of the Doha Development Round viii. To adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives, and facilitate timely access to market information, including food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility The target shows that the importance of food security at the domestic level before the international market influences food security through export and trade. Despite this, data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia, shows that the Malaysian food import value in 2015 only reached up to RM 6,904 million (Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2015:125). The dependency of Malaysia towards food import is endorsed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industry (MOA). To address this issue, the initiative to reduce the dependency of Malaysia towards the food product import at the same time to achieve high self-sustenance can enable the food security level in the nation to stand at a safe level.
The policy related to the national food security that has been discussed, displays an integration and the relationship between policies, significant with the green development because it has a strategy that is similar to achieve green growth. The RMK-11 emphasised the green growth by using a more efficient, clean and competitive resource (Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister Office, 2015). With this agenda, there is a beacon of hope to ensure strong food, water and energy security at the same time mitigate the risks to the environment. The same goes with the 2016 budget that serves as the continuation of the RMK-11 that enables the green growth agenda to be achieved.
By stressing both elements of the environment and economy in integration in the policy, it enables the balance between natural resource and human is preserved. The integration between the environment and human, shows that the role of human as the Caliph of Allah SWT and the peacekeeper of the earth can be executed. This happens when human uses the natural resources to obtain food and economic even by preserving the limit of the use of the natural resource in the job scope as the Caliph of Allah SWT. The value of justice, the balance between nature and the tasks as Caliph have become the mainstay in the Islamic green development (Matin, 2010:86). This integration is stressed to avert the threat of Allah SWT to human as dictated in the surah al-A'raaf verse 96. Based on the interpretation of Qutb (2001:210), Allah SWT explains the threat of the people who deviate from Allah SWT and His servants. In turn, for people who have faith in Allah SWT and His messengers, they will be rewarded (Al-Maraghiy, 2001:2318. In brief, the grant of reward and sustenance particularly food can be obtained under the condition that humans have faith in Allah SWT as He dictates: And if only the people of the cities had believed and feared Allah, We would have opened upon them blessings from the heaven and the earth; but they denied [the messengers], so We seized them for what they were earning. (al-A'raaf, 7:96) The insertion of technology plays a role in increasing food production and strengthening the country's food supply. Following this, the RMK-11 strategy to increase food production especially paddy with the use of quality paddy seeds and the correct agricultural technology practice has been formulated. This strategy is consistent with Malaysia to make agriculture the main contributor to the national economy and to the sufficient food storage.
The Malaysian agricultural sector has undergone the inclusion of technology since RMK-9 focused on the modern technology application, the use of biotechnology, and large scale commercial agriculture. Other than that, the use of technology, especially the agricultural genetic modification has more actively been done since the 1990-an (Mozumdar, Islam & Saha, 2012). In effect, the use of the fertilizer technology has increased the nutrient towards the paddy crops intensively twice a year so much that the outcome is profitable and of high quality (Nordin, Noor & Saad, 2014). The emphasis on the use of green technology is also actively implemented by Malaysia in various sectors. This is done in ensuring that the water and energy resources can be managed efficiently and at the same time to ensure that human needs are fulfilled.
The role as the Caliph of Allah to preserve the nature and not destroying it becomes the responsibility and order to human beings (Yusof, Rosman, Mahmood, Sarip & Noh, 2013). Based on the observation, the productivity of agricultural land in Malaysia that is among the third best in 2013 among the member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) with the rate US$ 18,000 per hectare has successfully been obtained (The Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries, SESRIC, 2016). This is because the allocation of agricultural land in Malaysia in 2013 has achieved 912, 419 hectares compared to the year 2015 is reduced to 896, 04 hectares (Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industry, 2015). The management and development of land for agriculture need to be prioritised because the land has given a great benefit for the sustainability of food production so that the food reserve is preserved.
The livestock industry is not exempted to be focused upon because based on the Agro-food Policy (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020), this industry has the potential to be developed to ensure food supplies and also to mitigate the rate of dependency towards imported meat. Specifically, the stress on this sector can be seen through the livestock industry between the year 2010 and 2015 in Table 3. The Malaysian trade activity specifically the agricultural sector from the year 2012 to 2015 is shown in Table 4 shows the import and export activities. In several food commodities like the meat, dairy products, cereal, fruits, coffee, cocoa, tea and spices experience an increase in the import of these foods. The change of the pattern in the food intake that is more to the meat, dairy products, sugar, fat and oil has plagued most of the developed countries and becomes widespread to developing countries approaching the year 2050 (FAO, 2011b). Nonetheless, from the positive side, the Malaysian economy is seen to have been increasing in most of the food commodities being traded, with the exception of fish, crustaceans and molluscs commodities. This positive development continues to take place with an increase of 7.1 percent in the section of KDNK in the first half of 2017 subsequent from the use of the modern technology and strong demand in the food processing industry (Ministry of Finance, Malaysia, 2017). The outcome of the observation towards the planned and implemented policies by Malaysia which is the national Agro-food policy, RMK-11 and budget 2016 sees the strong government's effort in increasing food storage. This is evident through the role of the country to increase food production by expanding the land use for main agricultural yield, namely paddy, technological inclusion and the commodity diversity such as the livestock industry. All these efforts are consistent with the green development values according to the Islamic perspectives based on their role as the Caliph of Allah SWT to preserve the environment and benefit from the universe the best we can. With this role implemented, Malaysia is able to sustain and increase the food supply at the same time strengthening the national food security.


Household debt in different age cohorts: A multilevel study

There is a need to identify household debt behaviour in different age cohorts even in countries without prominent household debt problems so that the measures for vulnerable groups can be made. Authors used multilevel mixed effect analysis to test the effect of age and other variables on demand of debt. A national representative survey data of HIES (2001–2013) based on stratified sampling design was used. Household debt in mature workers was higher than youth whereas debt of older people was not significantly different from other cohorts. Education and household size positively affect the demand for debt. This study contributed to existing literature by exploring the demand for debt in different age cohorts, taking into account other socio-economic variables. The design of debt products should be such that mature workers should not accumulate a high level of debt. Subjects: Sociology & Social Policy; Consumer Psychology; Economics

PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT
Ageing is a natural phenomenon but if proper measures are not taken for the increasing ageing population then it can be dangerous. In the absence of proper pensions systems and insurance plans, elderly people tend to take debts. It is important to see the household debt behaviour of different age groups so that proper measures can be taken if the elderly are found vulnerable. Currently, the population size of each age group is changing in Pakistan and expected to have an ageing problem in few upcoming years. It was found in Pakistan that people of age 50-59 have significantly higher debts. It is important for the government to take measures for elderly in the form of insurance plans, effective pension system and welfare nets so that the dependency ratio can be decreased and elderly people can be saved from getting highly indebted.
structural changes in population, there is always a need to invest in education and health. In addition, the employment sector also faces challenges as the unemployment rate increases. Along with demographic changes, the consumption patterns and the need for finances also changes. The South Asian population is expected to be 2.32 billion in 2050 with the normal fertility rate (United Nations, 2009). Pakistan, home of 11% of the South Asian population (United Nations, 2009), is also undergoing demographic changes. According to the World Bank (2016), there is a steady increase in the percentage of the population categorised as senior citizens (65 and above) from 6.8% in 2000 to 8.3% in 2015. The rate of ageing population has been slower in countries where the fertility rate has remained high.
In Pakistan, the total fertility rate was more than six children per household until 1990. Later, as a result of birth control and family planning campaigns, the birth rate declined to 3.4 children per female in 2015. Due to this high birth rate, the population aged above 60 years decreased between 1950 and 1970, from 8-6%. The percentage has increased slightly to 6.6% in 2015. Recent declines in fertility rates are expected to accelerate the growth of ageing population in Pakistan. It is expected that an ageing population will increase between 11 and 14% in the low fertility scenarios. The population aged 60 years and above are expected to grow by 66% between 2015 and 2030 whereas only 10% of them have pension funds now. (United Nations, 2015). In addition to that, there are changes in the whole age structure of the population as shown by the population pyramid in Figure  1. The population size increased over the years in each age category and in the coming years, the problem of an ageing population will increase. The steady growth of ageing population should be closely monitored by socialist planners in relation to household debt and welfare nets as it can pose risks to the society in terms of increasing dependency ratio especially when the state-provided support system for elderly is weak (Hodson & Dwyer, 2014).
There are inconclusive findings related to debt behaviour of different age groups, especially of elderly people. Some researchers found that older people tend to consume more than young ones and use various forms of credit (Higgs et al., 2009;Lusardi & Mitchell, 2013;Lusardi, Mitchell, & Oggero, 2016). This is in contrast to the prediction of Life Cycle theory that individuals consume more when they are young, accumulate savings in midlife and start dissaving in older ages with a decrease in Note: x-axis: Age in years, y-axis: Population in millions. The dotted line shows the male and females in excess. Source: United Nations (2017). their expenditure (Modigliani, 1986). The diversion from Life Cycle theory prediction is in tandem with the increasing trend of household debt in some countries (Crook, 2006;Zinman, 2015). This article examines the characteristics of debt in different age groups of Pakistan. It is important to know the debt characteristics of different age groups so that debt providers can provide debt to each group customised according to their needs.
The growing trend of unsecured credit and loans has become prevalent across different socioeconomic categories and groups in Pakistan (Barba & Pivetti, 2009;PeÑAloza & Barnhart, 2013). This reflects strict credit regulations of the formal institutions, non-provision of the required debt according to the eligibility of customers and culture in the society.
Pakistan lacks an efficient pension system due to which many people rely on their families for assistance (Jalal & Younis, 2014). Apart from pensions, elderly can borrow money to cover up their expenses in case of deficient income. High debt for elderly is an alarming sign for both individuals and lending institutions because most of the debt is usually repaid when individuals reach elderly age. Modigliani's Life Cycle Income Hypothesis (Modigliani, 1986) says that over the life, income increases, reaches its maximum in midlife and decreases later. Individuals save in early age in order to consume in later age after retirement so that they can enjoy smooth pattern of consumption. The problem is when household debt is still high in older ages which signals the lack of pension systems, insurance plans and support systems for elderly. This study emphasizes the need for support programs by providing evidence that people of age 50-60 have significantly higher debt than young ones. The current situation is still not worsening but in future, increasing ageing population without support programs can create a problem. Apart from age, the factors which affect the amount of household debt are the household size (Togba, 2012), income, employment (Crook, 2006), education (Del-Río & Young, 2005) and household assets (Leonard & Di, 2014). The significant relationships have also been found in this study between debt and the above-mentioned variables.This study revealed that older people need support in the form of pensions, insurance or other measures so that they may not incur more debt in old age.
In the scenario of declining fertility rates, expected increasing ageing population and changing structure of whole population pyramid, there is need to investigate the debt behaviour across different ages. The objective of this study is to investigate demand for debt across different ages of life. This study also examines the model of household debt by examining effects of different variables on debt which have been discussed in the literature. The focus of the article is on the behaviour of people across different ages towards debt in an economy where a big proportion of the population does not have pension funds. They either depend on their friends and family for financial support or take debt. Ageing is natural but the absence of proper management of increasing ageing population can be dangerous. Monitoring household debt across different ages will reveal the urgency of welfare assistance or debt programs for the different age groups. For example, if some age groups like elderly, are having a large amount of debt then it may signal weak welfare nets and state support which can create an urgency of welfare assistance. If youth used to have a large amount of debt then it may signal to expensive education or scarcity of jobs. This study not only highlighted the potential issue in the context of Pakistan but also contributed to the literature of risks faced by elderly through use of advanced econometric techniques The rest of the paper includes literature review, methodology, results, discussion and conclusion. Literature review explains the reasons for borrowing, the role of different factors in household debt variation and relationship of age with household debt. Methodology section elaborates the data and analytical technique used to analyse data and derive the results. Results have been presented later and discussed. Later, the whole paper is concluded.

Literature review
Household debt "is an obligation or liability, arising from borrowing money or taking goods or services 'on credit' i.e. against an obligation to pay later" (Prinsloo, 2002, p. 63). In advanced economies, individuals owe their household debts mostly to formal institutions (Georgarakos, Haliassos, & Pasini, 2014). In this article, the words credit, debt and borrowings are used interchangeably as they carry the same intrinsic meaning.

Reasons for borrowing
Households borrow because of two reasons: income fluctuations and lower savings. According to Lorenzoni and Guerrieri (2011), people borrow because of transitory fluctuations in their income while Eggertsson and Krugman (2012) argued that people borrow because their savings are inadequate and they also use these borrowings for investment purposes. Households tend to maximise their utility through their consumption. Life Cycle Income Hypothesis theory says that households save in early ages and dissave in old ages. Sometimes they borrow when faced with temporary income fluctuations. Income during a lifetime is hump-shaped, it is low at early ages and after reaching a maximum point, it decreases. The more the income is hump-shaped, the greater the debt is incurred according to Life Cycle Income Hypothesis (LCIH) theory (Modigliani, 1986). Life cycle interpretations of consumer credit have however been questioned by contrasting empirical evidence (Barba & Pivetti, 2009).
Earlier, Friedman (1957) proposed that current consumption was linked to permanent income which was later negated by empirical evidence. Hall (1978) and Flavin (1981) found out that consumption was not determined solely by permanent income. However, Deaton (1992) discovered that consumption and current income are interdependent.

Sources of change in household debt
People are usually compelled to take a loan when they want to bridge the gap between their current and desired level of income (Barba & Pivetti, 2009;Lusardi & Tufano, 2015). The excess credit is usually used for education, consumption and purchasing a house. The amount of debt varies with age (Del-Río & Young, 2005). Some researchers have highlighted that debt increases at decreasing rate with age (Fabbri & Padula, 2004;Magri, 2002;Yilmazer & DeVaney, 2005).
Household size also affects the amount of debt incurred, in view of constant income, it becomes difficult to manage expenditures and thus, the debt may be required (Livingstone & Lunt, 1992;Magri, 2002;Togba, 2012). Earlier, researchers showed that income plays an important role in affecting debt as individuals from higher income group can afford greater debts (Crook, 2006;Del-Río & Young, 2005;Petrides & Karagrigoriou, 2008). The type of employment also influences the amount of debt whereby those working in the formal sector accumulate greater amounts of debt (Crook, 2006;Tudela & Young, 2005). Education affects household debt positively as better education offers prospects of better earnings and a good understanding of financial options. Individuals access loans in anticipation of future income will be used to repay debt (Kim & DeVaney, 2001). Financial assets have a positive relationship with debt as they can be used as a mortgage for securing loans (Leonard & Di, 2014). Home ownership is also found to be important in explaining debt as many people take home loans. It is one of the major factors of rising household debt in many countries (Andrews, Sanchez, & Johansson, 2011).

Age and household debt
Economic and demographic characteristics affect a household's borrowing decision. According to life cycle theory, the decision to take a loan is influenced by age. Younger people are more likely to borrow compared with the older ones because of their lower future income expectations while the latter are usually risk-averse (Modigliani, 1966). Thus, accumulation of debt over life period is affected by age and is consistent with the life cycle hypothesis and permanent income hypothesis. According to Modigliani (1986) life cycle income hypothesis (LCIH), a person seeks to smooth consumption over his/her lifetime and for that, he or she relies on savings and debt.
Debt is usually incurred during early stages of one's career when one's income is less than one's expenses. Debt accumulates until the person reaches middle age and attains seniority in the chosen profession which translates into better income. Del-Río and Young (2005) found age to be one of the strongest determinants of debt level after income. The relationship between age and income was positive. A cross-country analysis by Austrian Central Bank included Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Albania, Poland, Romania, Hungry, Serbia, Croatia, Herzegovinian and Bosnia indicated that age has a positive relationship with loans (Fidrmuc, Hake, & Stix, 2013). However, research findings are inconsistent. Yilmazer and DeVaney (2005), for instance, discovered in the United States that older people decrease their spending associated with consumption. Hence, the need to finance their expenses lowers with age. Elderly people tend to maintain their assets rather than dissolving them to smooth their consumption. Duca and Rosenthal (1993), for example, found the relationship between debts and age to be negative. Young households accumulate more debts because their income is low. The relationship between debt and age is U-shaped and it is interesting to study each segment which is achieved by categorising age into stages called family life cycle stage (Lansing & Kish, 1957). It has been shown that elderly people spend less than those in the younger age group (Danziger, Van Der Gaag, Smolensky, & Taussig, 1982). In the case of US, older people don't dissave but they decrease their spending associated with consumption. Hence, there is less need for debts to finance their living expenses. It is also interesting to note in certain case, debt increases with age (Yilmazer & DeVaney, 2005).
The issue of debt has been explored using primary data (Adnan, 2005;Ahmed, 2016) in the context of Pakistan but this study uses national data from 2001-2014 which will also provide insights into household debt in older citizens. It will provide a recommendation of welfare programs for older people to avoid a heavy burden of debt.

Methodology
Data for this study were obtained from Household Integrated Expenditure Survey for Pakistan covering the period of 2001/2002, 2005/2006, 2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 and 2013/2014. The national representative data were collected by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The data are also disaggregated at the provincial level. PBS developed the sampling frame for this study by dividing cities and villages identified through map into enumeration blocks. A two-stage sampling design was used for data collection. At stage 1, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were selected consisting of enumeration blocks in urban areas and villages in rural areas. At the second stage, 12-16 households were selected from each PSU and the selection of households started randomly. Different socioeconomic and economic indicators have been covered by this survey.
The dependant variable is a debt amount which has been measured as a continuous variable based on the amount of money borrowed by people. The same method has been used by Magri (2002) to capture the desired amount of debt by households. Debt has been taken in logarithmic form in order to reduce the large variations in the amount of debt and to avoid heteroscedasticity of residuals.
One of the demographic characteristics which are considered to be important is age. The population is generally divided into three groups according to the age namely children, young and senior citizen. Children of age 0-14 are considered to be economically unproductive as they depend on family or working population for physical care, education and medical care. In 2017, 32.1% of the population was under 15 years and 6.5% of the population was of age above 60 years. The rest 61.4% of the population was between 15 and 59 years (Government of Pakistan, 2017). The working population in South Asian countries is further classified into youth, young working age and mature working age consisting of age categories of 15-24, 25-49 and 50-59 years, respectively. Youth usually spends on education. Young workers consume most of what they earn but they also have small savings. The mature working age population earn and save more (Navaneetham & Dharmalingam, 2012). Senior citizens usually depend on others (family or government support) to meet their consumption needs. Employment status had four major categories including employer, paid employee, self-employed and agricultural employment defined by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Employer category includes all employers employing less than or more than 10 employees in the non-agricultural sector. Selfemployed and paid employees are also in the context of non-agricultural employment. Agricultural employment includes owner-cultivator, share-cropper, contract cultivator, earning through livestock or unpaid family worker. Another question was asked about the presence of earning persons other than household head and contributing to the household budget. The aim was to find out if the number of working family members contribute to an increase in household debts as active persons in a labour market can easily have greater access to debt. The variable is coded as 1 representing the presence of more than one person employed and 0 as an absence. The number of years of schooling was divided by five to monitor 5 years change in the education on the amount of debt. This will also make coefficients interpretable. Household size is based on a number of family members. Households having a greater number of children are supposed to pose more financial burden leading to increased debts. Gender and marital status were not included because the data were skewed to only one category. More than 90% of the population is married and are male. Household assets owned and household income has also been used to see their effect on household debt. Household income represents the total annual income from all sources. Households might take debt to purchase assets. The market value of household assets has been included in the analysis to examine their relationship with debt. They have also been taken in logarithmic form. The interaction between education and household income has also been tested because better income may be related to better education (Gregorio & Lee, 2002;Thurow, 1972). The interaction between more than 1 employed person and household income has also been tested.
Some of the characteristics for example household assets, household income, household size and household debt are household characteristics whereas education, age and marital status are individual characteristics. Since the household head is the individual who is recognised as head by the other members of the household as a main financial contributor, decision-maker or the eldest one, it is reasonable to take the data of household heads as a representative of household and use their information as individual characteristics. This definition has been adopted from Nenova, Niang, and Ahmad (2009).
Based on data obtained from HIES, the response rate to the question of household debt is low. Selection bias was avoided by not including those who have not stated the amount of borrowing in the study sample. Zero in the data of household debt represents the non-borrowing of any amount of debt and they do not distort the normal distribution of the variable. The source of debt includes both formal and informal.
As it has already been mentioned that HIES data have been collected through stratified sampling techniques where the interviewers were based on Primary Sampling Units (PSUs). Simply assuming that people living in same PSUs may have same characteristics can create wrong estimates leading to Type 1 error. Multilevel mixed effect models are a remedy for stratified design effects (Arpino & Aassve, 2014;Grilli & Rampichini, 2015;O'Loughlin, 2004). Multilevel models allow to derive information about random variations and model them (Stoker & Bowers, 2002). The mixed effect regressions give reliable information about age cohorts as it allows to take advantage of the multilevel structure of the data using repeated cross-sections. This technique also provides accurate information about the individual characteristics related to response variable (Yang, Schulhofer-Wohl, Fu, & Land, 2008).
Multilevel mixed effect linear regression has been used to see the effect of different characteristics on the amount of debt. Let n ijk be the number of observations of households of Pakistan (i) from province j and region k. X ijik represents the set of predictors of household debt. Let, v k represents the effect of province, u jk represents the effect of PSUs within a provine and ∈ ijk is the error term of the model. β is overall random intercept at national level and y ijk represents the amount of debt.
Traditionally, i = 1,…, n jk j = 1,…, J k (total number of PSUs in the province k) k = 1,…, K (total number of provinces) Therefore the models used in this study are defined as Multilevel mixed effect linear regression helps to model the random variations in the data but it assumes higher level residuals to be homoscedastic (Bullen, Jones, & Duncan, 1997). This has been checked later after fitting the multilevel model and getting higher level residuals.

Results
The sources of household debt include both formal and informal. The mean amount of household debt is around 0.1 million PKR. In the sample of 10,509, there are around 65% of the people who belong to the 25-49 age group. People belonging to the category of age 0-14 were only 0.001% so we dropped them as they are considered non-productive and also are legally ineligible to take debts. The mean size of household is seven members since Pakistan has a culture of living in form of extended families which is also reflected in the maximum number of households. Majority of the household heads are male and married due to which we will not include gender and marital status in the analysis in order to avoid biased estimates. Most the household heads are paid employee followed by agricultural employment. Around 55% of the households have earning-member other than household head to finance the household expenditures. The descriptive statistics of the sample are summarised in Table 1. Model 1 represents the null model for the household debt. The likelihood ratio test shown in Table  2 shows that three-level model is preferred to single level model. There are around 12% variations present in the household debt at provincial level whereas around 16% random variations are present at PSU level. Most of the variations (around 73%) can be explained by the variables at the household level.
In Model 2, the trend of taking debt over time was significantly increased in every succeeding survey year as compared to 2001/2002. The results are evident in Table 3. Model 3 shows the main effect of all the independent variables included in the study. Results show that household debt is positively affected by household resources such as income and assets as these enable access to credit. Education also significantly and positively affects the amount of household debt. Household size also positively affects the amount of debt. Agricultural employment did not significantly affect the amount of debt whereas, with self-employment and paid employment, the amount of debt significantly decreases as compared to others. Households in the age category of 50-59 have significantly higher debt than 15-24 years of age.
An interaction between more than one person employed and income was introduced in order in Model 4 to see the effect of income on the amount of debt for those who are still active in the labour market. Model 4 also shows the interaction of education with income which is significant. Having better education and higher income significantly and positively affects the amount of debt. Having more working people in the household improves the prospects of earnings and thus interaction of more than 1 person employed with income significantly and positively affects the amount of debt. On the basis of likelihood ratio test, we select Model 3 as our final model. As mentioned earlier, multilevel mixed effect linear regression allows the residuals to be heteroscedastic and helps in the modelling of their variance but higher level residuals need to be homoscedastic. The residuals of the final selected model have also been checked at PSU level for heteroscedasticity. The caterpillar plot in Figure 2 shows that all the residuals plotted with their confidence intervals touch the red line. Their distribution shows that they are not heteroscedastic. Figure 3 contains normal quantile plot which shows that the higher level residuals are also normal. The multicollinearity was also checked between the independent variables through variance inflation factor. If the value of variance inflation factor (VIF) is higher than 10 then it is considered as indicative of harmful multicollinearity (Kennedy, 1992, p. 183). Table 4 shows that VIF of independant variables is not greater than 10. The mean VIF is also not very high which indicates that the absence of multicollinearity. Hence the model fulfils all the assumptions of constant variance and normal independent residuals.   Model 3 shows that households in the age category of 50-59 have 14% higher debt than those in the age of 15-24 whereas there is no significant difference in the debt of ages 25-49 and above 60 as compared to those in the age of 15-24. Households in the age category of 50-59 considered to be mature workers have higher debt compared with those under the age of 25 due to purchase of house, cars and investments. At an older age, people may not reduce their consumption, but at the same time, they may not feel the need for borrowings as they receive financial support from their children. Financial support for older people in the form of government pensions or welfare funds is minimal. Similar results were noted in another study on age cohorts for credit (Li & Goodman, 2015) The amount of household debt is lower amongst those who are self-employed or are paid employees. We are examining a debt phobic society so when households have employment either selfemployment or paid employment, their amount of debt decreases. The amount of debt is influenced by the number of employed persons in the household and its interaction with income is also significant. This means that having more than one working person in the household does not affect the relationship between income and debt; in fact, it may even increase the amount of household debt. However, the interaction between education and income is significantly positive as better education   with higher income can assure higher sum of expected income and eligibility to a higher amount of debt for investment purposes.

Discussion
What motivates people to borrow? It is largely to increase consumption or to fulfil financial needs.
Older people may borrow in order to fulfil their needs due to decreased income. Most of the debt is repaid when the person reaches old age. Table 3 shows that mean debt in old age does not vary greatly from the young. It signals that old people are borrowing to meet their basic consumption needs.   Figure 4 shows that the trend of income follows Modigliani's Life Cycle Income Hypothesis (Modigliani, 1986). The income and debt are highest in mature working age. The income and debt are lowest in youth followed by young working. People in older age have lower debt than mature workers because, until retirement age, they would have paid off most of the debts.
The point to ponder here is that people in old age still have outstanding debts.
Elderly people are generally satisfied with their with assets and wealth which is called ageing paradox or satisfaction paradox (Olson & Schober, 1993). It was also found that elderly people have fewer debts and are satisfied with their life (Hansen, Slagsvold, & Moum, 2008) In short, elderly people are more financially satisfied and they usually have less materialistic aspirations. They take fewer debts as discussed above. However, data show that debts increase with age, but at a decreasing rate. Hence, social safety nets are important and policy-makers must have in place a funding scheme which includes provident funds and insurance policies for older people. Household heads also feel financial stress from education, marriage, loss of a job or not having own house for living for which they may take loans.

Conclusions
This study was aimed at examining household debt across different ages and the relationship between different socioeconomic factors with household debt. Pakistan does not have a problem with regards to surging household debt; rather, efforts are being made to increase financial inclusion in the country. Household surveys have indicated that debt of older people was not significantly lower than the youth. It can be argued that the debt amount may reflect the decision to borrow in early age, but if that was true then they should have repaid most of their debts. The young are usually driven by materialism and are usually not satisfied with their financial state. In order to have something now which they will only buy in the future, people borrow. But older people are usually satisfied with what they have even if they are poor, known as the ageing paradox or satisfaction paradox. Results of this study also showed that those in the age group of 50-59 years have significantly higher debt than the young workers. Older people borrow out of needs rather than desire if they have to. Thus, social welfare nets which function as to make a support system for the poor otherwise they may get into trouble to repay.
This study also analysed the relationship between socioeconomic variables and debt. Findings indicated that self-employed and paid employees take significantly lower debt than the employers. It was also found that education, income, financial assets and household size positively affect debt. This study has contributed to existing literature by exploring risks faced by individuals in middle and old age. It has limitations though. The psychological aspect related debt taking and based on age cohorts was not examined and may be an interesting future research. Note: x-axis: age categories where 1 = youth (15-24), 2 = young workers (25-49), 3 = mature workers (50-59), 4 = elderly (above 60). y-axis: average amount in PKR Household debt Household income


Local Experience and Reflection on China’s Long- term Care Insurance System Based on Gilbert's Social Welfare Policy Analysis Framework*

Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is an inevitable choice to deal with the aging of the population and the disability of the elderly. In the exploration practice of China's long-term care insurance system, cities such as Qingdao, Changchun and Nantong took the lead in the test, and each had its own gains and losses. Based on the supplemented Gilbert’s social welfare policy analysis framework, this paper deconstructs the long-term care insurance system in China's pilot areas from five aspects: distribution basis, distribution content, service delivery, funding sources, and risk management, and reflects on the experience and problems in local practice to enlighten the road to the advancement of China's long-term care insurance system. Keywords—long-term care insurance; Gilbert’s social welfare policy analysis; local experience; reflection

INTRODUCTION
The aging of the population is one of the most important social changes faced by developed and developing countries around the world, including China. Since entering the aging society in 2000, the number of elderly people in China has increased. In 2015, the size of the elderly population aged 60 and over in China has reached 222 million, accounting for 16.1% of the total population. Under the aging background, the size of the elderly disabled group is also expanding. According to the survey, the total number of disabled and semi-disabled elderly in China reached 40.63 million, accounting for 18.3% of the elderly population. The proportion of urban and rural elderly who self reported a need for care was 15.3%, with an increase of 9 percentage points over 2000. The disability trend of the elderly population has led to an increase in the scale of social long-term care and a gradual escalation. Although China has established a relatively complete social insurance system, long-term care costs are not covered. The imperfect development of the aged care service industry has caused longterm "social hospitalization" of some chronic geriatric patients, resulting in inefficiency in the utilization of medical resources. How to build a long-term care security system to provide effective nursing services for the elderly has become a difficult problem that China has to face. In July 2016, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the "Guiding Opinions on Piloting the Long-term Care Insurance System", and plans to use the pilot period of 1-2 years to explore and establish a social insurance system that provides care or financial protection for medical care that is closely related to basic life in social life-assisted mutual aid method to raise funds for the basic life of long-term disabled people. Some cities in China took the lead in piloting, and accumulated some experience and certain problems in the exploration of the longterm care insurance system. Deconstructing and reflecting on local practices will help other cities in the system to learn from each other's strengths and advance the process of China's longterm care insurance system.

II. THE LOCAL EXPLORATION OF THE LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE SYSTEM
American scholar Neil Gilbert believes that social welfare policies are not precisely defined, and even no definition is generally accepted. However, in the content related to the subject, the boundaries can be marked to form a common discussion. On the basis of previous studies, Gilbert proposed the framework of welfare policy analysis, namely the "fourdimensional and three-tier" method: distribution basis, distribution content, service delivery, and financing methods constitute the four dimensions of social welfare policy, each dimension is examined from three levels: (1) the choice scope; (2) the social value that supports them; and (3) theories or assumptions that support them. Dai Weidong supplemented the social welfare policy analysis framework based on the characteristics of the long-term care insurance system, and formed the seven-dimensional three-tier welfare analysis framework by introducing social choice, risk control and operational steps. In terms of the operational steps, the establishment of China's long-term care insurance system is not formed by one step, but a pilot first, gradually promoting, and eventually achieving national integration. As for social choices, long-term care insurance in all regions consistently is implemented in the form of social insurance. Therefore, this paper only selects the five dimensions of distribution basis, distribution content, service delivery, funding source and risk control to analyze the long-term care insurance system in each region.

A. Distribution Basis: LTCI Insurance Scope
The basis of the distribution of social welfare is the principle that is followed when social welfare is allocated to a specific group. For LTCI, it is the choice of the insurance scope. The insured personnel of Jinan and Rizhao are limited to the employees of this city, and the insurance coverage is small. Qingdao, Changchun and Nantong all adopt the model of "Caring Insurance Follows Medical Insurance". The insurance covers all employees who are covered by basic medical insurance and basic medical insurance for residents. However, the implementation of the system in Nantong City is only within the urban area (Chongchuan District, Gangzha District, and the Municipal Economic and Technological Development Zone), so the insurance coverage is smaller than that in Qingdao and Changchun.

B. Distribution Content: LTCI Care Service
According to Gilbert's social welfare policy theory, there are two basic forms of welfare distribution: cash and in-kind. The difference between long-term care insurance and other insurances is that the distribution content is not limited to cash but also can be paid in kind, and the way of payment in kind is more consistent with the original intention of the system. The LTCI in the pilot cities were implemented in the means of care services, but the types of care provided in each pilot area were different, as shown in " Table I". In addition, in terms of the same type of care, the objects served in the regions are not exactly the same. Changchun City LTCI is mainly targeted at completely disabled groups, so its nursing services are mainly implemented by visiting designated medical institutions, pensions or nursing institutions. Different from Nantong, Jinan and Rizhao, different types of nursing services are provided based on the severity of illness and the degree of acuteness. The special medical care of Qingdao is mainly for the elderly with severe disability. The Institutional medical care is mainly for the elderly who need hospice care. The community patrol care is mainly aimed at the elderly in rural areas. There is little difference in the content of nursing services in each pilot area, and medical care is carried out in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Inpatient Basic Care Service Project (Trial) (Wei Yi Zheng Fa [2010] No. 9) and the "Clinical Nursing Practice Guide".

C. Service Delivery: Management of LTCI Service Organization and Supply
Whether service delivery is effective is the key to achieving LTCI goals. How to effectively deliver care services to those who have care needs to ensure that disabled people can effectively access the corresponding care services, the practice varies from region to region. In the management model of long-term care insurance, each region adopts thirdparty custody model.

1) Admission mechanism:
A market that operates efficiently and orderly is inseparable from a strict access mechanism, and the nursing market is no exception. The longterm care insurance system began with the government's leadership. Therefore, various types of medical, pension and nursing institutions with relevant qualifications organized by the government constitute the main force of service supply. The long-term care insurance system in each region not only requires the nursing institution to have the designated qualifications for the basic medical insurance of the city, but also sets various thresholds for the nursing institutions that provide different types of care in terms of personnel, equipment and scale. However, the long-term care services market is not entirely government-led. Qingdao, Jinan and Rizhao allowed the non-medical qualification nursing institutions to establish a "medical support complex" with their nearest fixed medical institutions for basic medical insurance, and apply for a designated nursing institution qualification by agreement. Nantong City allows large-scale and qualified enterprises to apply for fixed-point care services and provide home care services. Changchun City has the widest openness, not only hospitals, nursing homes, but also various public training centers and activity centers that can be encouraged to actively carry out disability care services by means of rectification, replacement or conversion.
2) Service management: Service management is the prerequisite for ensuring the quality of care services and the rational allocation of care resources. There are some requirements on the care content and related service for longterm care services in each region. In terms of care content, as mentioned above, each region has its own regulations. In the related nursing service, Changchun, Jinan and Rizhao City respectively require staffing and service frequency. In order to ensure the quality of medical care services for insured persons, in Changchun, in principle, the number of medical care managed by each professional care worker should be no less than 3 and no more than 5 persons. Rizhao City treats patients at home with medical care, medical doctors visit at least 3 times a month, nurse practitioners at least 2 times a week, and medical staff provide at least 3 hours of service per month. For community patrol patients, medical doctors visit at least once a week. Qingdao and Nantong City have no explicit provisions in this regard.
3) Cost management: Cost management is not only the initial goal of the establishment of the LTCI system but also the guarantee of the continuous operation of the system. There are three main aspects to the cost management of service organizations: First, the prescribed charging standards. Each city stipulates standards for the fees for nursing service items, and the standards vary. Rizhao City requires that it be implemented in accordance with standards not higher than the price department. Jinan City stipulates that it must be strictly implemented according to the national and provincial policies and prices for drugs and medical charges. The expenses of labor service fees, nursing equipment usage fees, and nursing daily necessities in Changchun City shall be determined by the municipal medical insurance agency in accordance with the city's sample average price or the procurement price of the government procurement platform. Second, for the settlement method of "fixed-in-time, over-spending and non-payment", all pilot cities have adopted this settlement method to control expenses to a certain amount in order to prevent care institutions from providing excessive long-term care services. The differences are the amount of each region and the level of refinement. Rizhao City not only sets a certain number of standards for different types of care, but also sets limits for different levels of service providers with the same services. For example, for medical care at the first, second and third levels of designated care institutions; the daily fee limit is 120 yuan, 170 yuan, 200 yuan one person, which is more detailed than other regions. Third, attach the social security information system to establish a cost audit and monitoring system, and require medical institutions to upload a cost breakdown of all expenses during treatment.

D. Source of Funds: LTCI Financing and Payment
The fund raising and payment is the core link of the longterm care insurance system, we should not only ensure the level of insurance payment, but also take into account the adequacy of funding sources. The smooth operation of both parties can guarantee the sustainability of the LTCI system. 1) Fund raising: egardless of the scope of insurance, the pilot city nursing insurance funds mainly come from the transfer of the basic medical insurance fund and the one-off or phased supplement provided by the welfare public welfare fund, as shown in "Table II", except that Nantong City requires residents to bear 30 yuan per year for long-term care insurance premiums, no other individuals are charged in other regions. Although the sources of financing are mainly medical insurance funds, the allocation methods in different regions are different and can be divided into two categories. The first category is represented by Changchun and Qingdao, and is allocated on a fixed scale. From the employee medical insurance fund, the total monthly payment base was transferred to 0.5%, of which 0.2% and 0.3% respectively were transferred from individual and pool accounts in Changchun City. But that was transferred totally from individual accounts in Qingdao City. In addition, in Qingdao City, it also transferred 20% of the employee medical insurance fund's annual balance to the employee care insurance fund, which is a flexible part. The resident care insurance fund in Qingdao is transferred from the resident social medical insurance fund in accordance with 10% of the total amount of social medical insurance premiums paid by the residents in that year, and the proportion is also allocated. The second category is allocated at a fixed amount. Changchun's residential care insurance fund (30 yuan), Nantong's staff and residents' care insurance fund (100 yuan, no distinction between employees and residents), Jinan (115 yuan) and Rizhao (100 yuan) employee care insurance fund were allocated in this way, the payment amount of Jinan and Rizhao is based on the average income level of the local employees in the previous year, and is set at a level of 0.2-0.3%. If it is compared with the size of the medical insurance fund, it accounts for about 3.5%. Taking Rizhao City as an example, in 2015, its per capita employee medical insurance premium was about 2,786 yuan, and 100 yuan of employee care insurance premiums accounted for 3.6% of per capita employee medical insurance premiums.

2) Payment of benefits:
The pilot cities have basically the same approach in the payment of long-term care insurance. The form of payment is all service payment. The scope of payment is in compliance with the prescribed medical care expenses, in which Jinan and Rizhao also include the cost of medicines related to care and meeting the requirements of the basic medical insurance drug list. The long-term care insurance benefits do not set withdrawal point, and the nursing insurance fund is reimbursed for a certain percentage.
The insured person must bear a certain proportion in order to prevent moral hazard. In Changchun and Jinan City, the proportion of compensation for insured employees is 90%, and the compensation rate for insured residents is 80%. The payment ratios of Qingdao, Nantong and Rizhao City are based on the type of care services received by individuals. The nursing care fee in the old-age care institutions and homes in Qingdao is 96% paid by the nursing insurance; the fee of "special medical care" is 90% paid by nursing insurance. If Nantong City receives care services at a nursing home in a designated medical institution, it will pay 60%. If the nursing service is taken care of by the aged care provider, 50% will be paid. For the home care service, the care insurance fund sub-services are paid according to the monthly limit standard, and the monthly limit is tentatively set at 1,200 yuan. Rizhao City stipulates that 92% of the medical care expenses of insured person receiving institutional care and home care are paid by nursing insurance; the care expenses for medical care are 90% paid by the nursing insurance.

E. Risk Management: LTCI Adverse Selection and Moral
Hazard Adverse selection and moral hazard are the two major risks in long-term care insurance operations. How to effectively manage these two types of risks and control the cost of aged care security, the practice of pilot cities has its own merits. For the control of adverse selection, Jinan and Qingdao all require fixed-point nursing institutions to apply for the online application of the social security integration system through the "application form", "rating scale", medical record data, evaluation video, etc., Jinan also requires the designated medical institution shall publicize the examination and evaluation of the eligible applicants within a certain scope and accept social supervision, and the publicity shall not be less than 7 days. In dealing with moral hazard, each region not only adopts a settlement method of "fixed-in-time, over-spending and non-payment" to prevent the waste of medical resources caused by over long-term care services provided by the medical service organizations, but also implements a reserve margin system, that is, insurance agencies only pay the nursing institutions a certain proportion of medical care fees, and the remaining unpaid proportion will be reserved as the service quality guarantee. At the end of the year, it will be settled according to the assessment. For example, the ratio of guarantees in Changchun and Jinan is 10%. In addition, some cities regularly assess patients to avoid unnecessary hospitalization. Rizhao and Jinan City conduct a self-care ability assessment every 3 months, and the insured personnel who have improved or stabilized their condition and those who are no longer eligible must go through the procedures for withdrawal.

III. THE LOCAL PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE OF THE LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE SYSTEM
A. Reasonable Choices for the Form of "Independence" and "Dependency" Whether to establish a long-term care insurance system alone or based on the existing basic medical insurance system, all the pilot areas choose the latter without exception. According to the principle of path dependence, a long-term care insurance system is established based on the existing basic medical insurance system, and long-term care insurance is used as an extension of basic medical insurance. Existing idle resources can be used to solve the financial problems of nursing insurance, and at the same time, the existing information management system of medical insurance can be used to avoid unnecessary fixed cost expenditure.

B. The Rational Transition of "Selectiveness" and "
Inclusiveness" of the Insured Object "Selectiveness" and "inclusiveness" are the two concepts of insurance scope. The former is through the form of legislation to make most of the nationals be included in the scope of insurance. The latter generally has restrictions on the age and income of the qualifications for insurance. The pilot cities choose between "selectiveness" and "inclusiveness" according to local conditions. On the one hand, due to the dual structure of urban and rural social medical insurance system, agricultural registered permanent residents have not entered the scope of insurance, and on the other hand, there is no threshold on the age or income for insurance. Although in the long run, long-term care insurance will inevitably achieve provincial-level coordination and even national co-ordination in the region, achieving urban-rural integration and staff and residents' overall plan. However, at the beginning of the current system operation, multiple pressures such as capital, services and talents were rolled out. The practice of the pilot city is not only simple to implement and easy to manage, but also avoids the high operating costs of the system and ensures a smooth transition of the system.

C. The Effective Balance Between "Marketization" and "Centralization" of Nursing Institutions
Under the centrally control and guidance of the government, nursing institutions can ensure the supply of nursing services, and adopt market-oriented operations to guide diversified participation and meet the increasing demand for nursing services, actively promoting competition in the nursing market. The choice of the pilot area is "semimarketization". On the basis of the application for the designated care service institutions, such as qualified hospitals and nursing homes that allow medical insurance, encourage qualified enterprises, qualified hospitals and nursing homes to participate in care services by medical support complex, replacement or transformation. At present, the "siphon effect" of the "super hospital" represented by public hospitals has aggravated the primary medical care environment due to its advantages in medical equipment and talents. The beds in private hospitals and primary health care institutions are largely idle, and medical talents are in short supply. In 2014, the average use rate of hospital beds in public hospitals in China was as high as 92.8%, while the average occupancy rate of private hospitals was only 63.1%. Grassroots health care institutions have more than 1.3 million hospital beds, and the average usage rate is less than 60%. Based on this, the practice of the pilot city not only eased the supply pressure of the nursing service of the designated hospital, but also reduced the survival pressure of the primary health institutions and private hospitals, and optimized the allocation of medical resources.

D. The Two-pronged Approach of "Demand Side" and "Supply Side" of Risk Management
Many strategies for risk management in pilot cities are worth learning. On the demand side, a set of combination punches such as "benefit review", "payment system" and "regular assessment" are formulated to influence the risk decision of the insured. In the pilot area, not only the rigorous benefit review procedures and periodic assessments are established to block the insured with adverse selection tendencies, but also the information inquiry platform is established to strengthen the information sharing of the insured and provide important reference information for underwriting. At the same time, the "in part of the payment" and "differential payment ratio" guides the insured's reasonable medical behavior. For example, in some areas, the proportion of reimbursement for the expenses of receiving care in the care institutions and homes is higher than that for special medical care expenses, and encourages and guides the insured persons to use the low-cost primary medical care resources for longterm medical care. Financial incentives for different services are designed based on the different resource allocations between different long-term medical care types. On the supply side, the fixed-point care organization adopts a "fixed-in-time, over-spending and non-payment" method to control its excessive use of medical resources. At the same time, the quality of service provided by the designated nursing institutions is regulated by means of reserve margin system.

A. The Assessment Institution Is Absent and the Assessment Behavior Is Not Independent
The disability assessment agency conducts a health review on the insured and determines the level and extent of their care needs. It is both a prerequisite for the insured to receive the care and an objective basis for the type of care. There is no special disability assessment agency or review committee to conduct the disability assessment of the insured in long-term care insurance system pilot cities. Instead, it is conducted by the medical insurance agency such as Changchun, or by a medical assessment team of the designated health care service such as Jinan. The author believes that the results of assessment conducted by nursing service institutions or insurance operators will involve their own interests. The athletes will also be the referees. Whether from the objectivity of the evaluation results or the independence of the assessment behavior, there is a lack of consideration.

B. The Financing Mechanism Is Unreasonable and Funds Cannot Be Guaranteed
The pluralism of the financing model is actually a reaction to the pluralism of responsibility. Old-age care is not only the responsibility of the government and society, but also the family. Therefore, in the fund raising mode, the "public assistance + mutual assistance + self-help" financing method should be adopted. In contrast to the financing mechanism of pilot cities in China, the financing methods public assistance + mutual assistance" in Jinan and Rizhao obviously violate the idea of divisibility and pluralism. In addition, except for Nantong City, which requires individual payment, most of the financing sources in other regions are mainly medical insurance funds. However, based on the rapid growth of China's medical insurance expenditures and the fact that the number of beneficiaries has grown too fast due to the trend of aging and disability, the sustainability of the binary financing model in some pilot areas is still unknown.

C. The Distribution Content Is Single, and the "Extrusion" Behavior Is Uncontrollable
In the long-term care insurance system piloted in China, the method of service payment has been selected for the distribution of content. Although this practice is in line with the original intention of the system, it directly protects the disabled people's access to care services, but it brings other risks. With service as the sole assignment, once the insurance benefit liability occurs, the formal care received by the longterm care insurance "squeeze out" the informal care provided by the family member. This practice runs counter to the international consensus that encourages informal care for the family, and it also increases the pressure on health care institutions and human resources.

V. CONCLUSION
The construction of China's long-term care insurance system is a major measure to deal with social risks and serve people's livelihood. Through the analysis of the basic composition of the long-term care insurance system in the pilot area and its gains and losses, the author believes that the construction of the long-term care insurance system in China should at least grasp the following points. First, nursing talent is the foundation of the system. The basis for the effective operation of the long-term care insurance system is the service providernursing talent. At present, the quantity and quality of nursing staff in China are far behind the actual needs. Although the proportion of doctors per thousand persons in China has reached the level of many countries in the world, the number of nurses is far from enough. China's 2015 medical care ratio is 1:1.07, still far below the world average. At the same time, most of the nursing staff has lower academic qualifications. The proportion of nurses with junior college education or below still accounts for 37.5%, and there is very little systematic education on aged nursing. The quality of nursing talent directly affects the quality of nursing services accepted by the elderly. In view of this, the training of nursing talents has become an urgent task in the construction of China's long-term care insurance system. Second, the system construction is the guarantee of the system. Most of the previous studies on solving the problem of long-term care needs are limited to long-term care insurance itself, and the author believes that only care insurance is not enough. To truly guarantee the operation of the system, it is necessary to form a four-in-one long-term care and protection system jointly supported by funds, services, talents and supervision, which is jointly participated by the government, insurance companies, nursing institutions and evaluation agencies. The absence of any participant cannot guarantee the effectiveness of the system. Third, welfare is diversified, and old-age support is the goal of the system. In the system construction, only by insisting on diversified nursing responsibilities, diversified sources of funds, and diversified distribution content, can we avoid the predicament of the welfare state, gather the power of society, solve the difficulties of nursing, and truly realize that the aged have someone to care and something to rely on.