The Multi-Aspect Criterion in the PMADM Outline and Its Possible Application to Sustainability Assessment

: Over the past few centuries, the process of decision-making has become more complicated in different respects. Since the initial phase of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) around ﬁfty years ago, Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) has continued developing over the years as a sub-concept of MCDM. Noticeably, the importance of the decision-making process is increasingly expanding to such an extent that it necessarily blends into the undeniable processes of MADM actual models. Novel methods with different perspectives have been introduced considering the dynamic MADM concepts of time and future in classical frameworks; however, they do not overcome challenges in practice. Recently, Prospective MADM (PMADM) as a speciﬁc approach has presented future-oriented models using already known approaches of MCDM, and it has innovative items which show barriers of classic model of MADM. However, PMADM practically needs more conceptual bases to illustrate and plan the future of real decision-making problems. The Multi-Aspect Criterion is a new concept in mapping the future of the PMADM outline. In this regard, two examples of sustainability will be analyzed, and different requirements and aspects associated with PMADM will be discussed in this study. This new approach can support the PMADM outline in more detail and deal with a decision-making structure that can be considered as novel to industry experts.

Introduction
Futures Studies taken as a field can be described from either a multi-disciplinary or an interdisciplinary perspective. During the last few decades, new multi-disciplinary topics have developed as either new fields or sub-fields, although they are usually categorized in both new fields and sub-fields together. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has kept developing over the past five decades in different aspects of operation research and applied mathematics as a sub-field. Similarly, on account of the progress in this area of knowledge, two specific international journals, namely, the Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (Wiley) and the International Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (Inderscience) have been launched and published, and they have caused this area to applications are also described and investigated. Conceptually, limiters and boosters in different future situations (and scenarios) cause different values and evaluations for alternatives given the selection of criteria towards evaluation purposes. However, in application, limiters are more common than boosters because they can be used when something occurs beyond evaluations and estimates. There is also a realistic assessment for accepting different occurrences of the future, for which a normal situation is defined to be the closest expectation as a basis for the future of a scenario [1].
PMADM needs be developed because of Futures Studies' requirements for decision-making purposes. One of the main challenges can be ability of PMADM in defining criteria based on future needs. Furthermore, this research focuses on this topic and will emphasize how criteria, their essences, and their definitions can change in different perspectives, frameworks, and structures in general. Additionally, a new item called the Multi-Aspect Criterion is introduced within the PMADM approach to meet Futures Studies' requirements for the decision-making process.

Previous Contributions in MADM
In recent decades, MADM has developed into many different aspects and dimensions. However, according to general perspective in decision science, there are two core categories of MADM as follows: 1.
Contributions in methods 2.

Contributions in Time Consideration
In this section, contributions will be discussed in two main sections, detailing direct and indirect approaches.

Direct Contributions
Since 1988, some research articles have considered time generally and directly as an effective index in the MADM framework [29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. Explanations of time contribution differed in these research articles. However, in these studies time plays a key role in MADM models. In the changing process of MCDM methods, Dynamic MADM (DMADM) has developed in parallel with the methods and additional logic of fuzzy and grey. Figure 1 graphically divides these into three categories in terms of time considerations.

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SECA Simultaneous Evaluation of Criteria and Alternatives Keshavarz Ghorabaee et al. [21] 19 CoCoSo Combined Compromise Solution Yazdani et al. [22] Note: DEMATEL-ANP as a hybrid MADM method, which can be considered a separated method also, is presented in different versions and applications [23,24].
Other less-prevalent MADM methods not shown in Table 1 are presented below: • Organization, Management Et Synthese De Donnees Relationnelles (French), or organization, storage, and summarizing of relational data in English (ORESTE) [25].
• Treatment of the Alternatives according to the Importance of Criteria (TACTIC) [26].

Contributions in Time Consideration
In this section, contributions will be discussed in two main sections, detailing direct and indirect approaches.

Direct contributions
Since 1988, some research articles have considered time generally and directly as an effective index in the MADM framework [29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. Explanations of time contribution differed in these research articles. However, in these studies time plays a key role in MADM models. In the changing process of MCDM methods, Dynamic MADM (DMADM) has developed in parallel with the methods and additional logic of fuzzy and grey. Figure 1 graphically divides these into three categories in terms of time considerations.

Indirect contribution
The main idea in this section is described in two sections as follows:

Scenarios based on MCDM (MADM)
In this combination, MCDM (mostly MADM) methods are applied in evaluating scenarios for future policymaking. In this state, scenarios are taken as alternatives, and criteria are defined in each case/topic for the purpose of evaluating and ranking the alternatives (scenarios) [44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56]. In fact, MCDM methods are applied as evaluators of future perspective scenarios, in which, mostly, scenario planners and future thinkers are contributors. These multidisciplinary research fields have been developed for different perspectives and viewpoints.

Indirect Contribution
The main idea in this section is described in two sections as follows:

Scenarios based on MCDM (MADM)
In this combination, MCDM (mostly MADM) methods are applied in evaluating scenarios for future policymaking. In this state, scenarios are taken as alternatives, and criteria are defined in each case/topic for the purpose of evaluating and ranking the alternatives (scenarios) [44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56]. In fact, MCDM methods are applied as evaluators of future perspective scenarios, in which, mostly, scenario planners and future thinkers are contributors. These multidisciplinary research fields have been developed for different perspectives and viewpoints.

MADM-based scenarios
This approach differs greatly from the "scenarios based on MADM", in which decision making is key. According to "MADM based Scenarios", Futures Studies and scenarios are the core and decisionmaking models and methods support the evaluation of all scenarios, separately [57]. This approach aims to illustrate and evaluate future states in a more appreciable space where different probable future scenarios can be included, and reliable signs/points can be achieved in a more general sense [58]. Briefly, the future is managed by having different probable outcomes that lead to packed evaluations for future generations. Having achieved probable outcomes in different future scenarios, the most vital key results with respect to the future are finally discussed.

Futures Studies and PMADM
"Futures Studies" as a major and field has been accepted within academia, though it still needs to mature, taking a revolutionary path to development [59]. The concept of futures can be divided into four distinct groups, categorized as follows [ Practice; and 3.
The logic on which a decision is based either to solve or create a challenge.
Afterwards, each four concepts of the future four items are explained carefully as to which group of future considerations we will face, either individually or combined.
Foresight is generally a systematic effort with a long-term perspective in different areas such as science, technology, economic, environment, and society. Significantly, it seeks to identify newfound technologies and their relations to economic investments and social profitability. Foresight is readiness for the future giving rise to value while making use of available sources as best possible [61,62].
Futures Studies is about the future and does not necessarily need to be practical with strategic plans [63]. Having included differences between prediction and Futures Studies, the vision for Futures Studies seeks to be more long-term than prediction. Scientifically, the science of prediction, which noticeably emphasizes the short-term future, began roughly five years ago. Studies of long-term changes only began to flourish between ten and fifty years ago. Definitely, prediction does not deliver all future benefits. Futures Studies considers different probable and predictable distant future outcomes, giving rise to the significance of Futures Studies. Moreover, methods are strictly quantitative in prediction, while Futures Studies uses both qualitative and quantitative methods of calculation [64].
Considering applicability of Futures Studies and foresight science, PMADM can be defined for both approaches by how it can discover the future and possibly manage it.
Different methods of Futures Studies can mostly be categorized based on explorative and descriptive approaches [65,66]. PMADM covers both an explorative and a descriptive decision, meeting the needs of policymakers. In the first model of PMADM, limiters and boosters can take both perspectives, explaining a stable and expectable situation of the future. Additionally, an alternative is accounted for to specifically concede to the descriptive perspective in this model. However, limiters and boosters enjoy a more explorative perspective, considering special futures of different scenarios. Applicably, splitting decision types in two, the descriptive approach mostly points out how the future needs to be constructively controlled, managed, and built up, taking into account both the positive and negative effects of sub-decisions. While explorative decisions seek more to lead decision makers towards a pre-considered purpose that satisfies their requirements, they offer a detailed look at the future as well. Descriptive decisions require attaching to a predetermined set of future goals to purposely reach the social desires of a community. Meanwhile, explorative decisions have already investigated possible future outcomes resulting in four main types of future.

New Hybrid/Mixed Criteria Facing the Future
The future is intertwined with vagueness and ambiguity in many aspects and dimensions. Due to the emergence of dynamic and prospective MADM models, new items and approaches must be combined with classical MADM, and accordingly they must be reviewed again. A major part of each MADM model and method is criteria. In fact, definition of a criterion can vary according to the classical perspective of MADM structure and employ an approach in each time period due to its needs and expectations will be considerable. It is important to understand exactly what our expectations from a criterion will be in the future. This could be answered by either justification or a revised version of criterion/criteria. In the latter question, it is essential to evaluate and understand its possibilities. Subsequently, different topics should be considered when presenting criteria for a certain "time period" or "exact time" in the future.
Criteria, which are studied in the same manner as alternatives, will likely change due to new possibilities. The definition of a decision and a decision space both play a key role in combining the prospective model with a "time period" and an "exact time". Additionally, future approaches acknowledge a long-term influence over the new possibilities. Both explorative and descriptive approaches diverge into distinct directions, leading to different decision frameworks. The definition and application of criteria in this type of decision structure within MADM models appears relatively complicated, specialized, and distinguished. Conceptually, the first direct connection of MADM models and the future is made through future approaches and perspectives. The two main approaches in the field, explorative and descriptive, are fundamental to Futures Studies. Many Futures Studies methodologies, like "Scenario planning" and "Backcasting", which both perform well, make use of the two approaches. Accordingly, connections made between MADM structures and Futures Studies should present a better definition for criteria in the future.
Foresight is taken into account in both of the mentioned future approaches of MADM structure, in which a defined future plan takes into account both what is desired and what occurs in reality. In dealing with the details of a MADM model, criteria are directed through the same requirements as the general structure of MADM, and it is essentially required to include them. Moreover, each criterion provides enough flexibility to support future requirements in MADM models. Conceivably, possible Futures, plausible Futures, probable Futures, and preferable Futures could develop a prospective MADM, which could allow for dynamism using different items and incorporated criteria. Noticeably, new items included in MADM models seal the gap between imagination and reality. Therefore, a criterion and its position in the big picture of decision making are undeniably significant and have attracted much scientific attention to Futures Studies thus far.

Multi-Aspect Criterion
A Multi-Aspect Criterion is an indicator in prospective MADM, which introduces a novel and important factor to this subject. The image of the future is described in a new space as a new criterion, called a Multi-Aspect Criterion, which must be clearly defined. The idea of a Multi-Aspect Criterion parallels the uncertainty of a model when a difference arises between prediction and forecasting over a long-term period. When planning a scenario, possible outcomes of the future are investigated and then collected in a new featured criterion, called Multi-Aspect Criterion. Through this process, the known concepts of present time are merged with a new concept of the imagined future. These concepts have specific definitions, as required by the definition of Multi-Aspect Criterion. This drives a new meaning of the future, combining the current known definition of criteria and aiming for the establishment of Multi-Aspect Criterion. The concept of uncertainty, often perceived as confusing, defines an opportunity. In fact, humanity wonders what the future will cause it to encounter in situations in which tolerance is taken into account. Imaginably, this tolerance includes many thoughts and ideas about possible outcomes that a Multi-Aspect Criterion must take into account. Therefore, two primary conditions necessary to present a new Multi-Aspect Criterion are required to: • have a certain definition • imagine the future A Multi-Aspect Criterion is categorized in the two following groups:

Hybrid criteria as a new criterion
According to the future needs and scenarios, some criteria are considered as a package that is driven by a new criterion. Although hybrid criteria are introduced as a package, the current situation can be justified by and classified as different research areas. Uncertainties are included in PMADM models, creating a significant challenge among many others, where definitions such as criteria and alternatives are required. Hybrid criteria aid in comprising scenarios in the classic MADM models if they are effectively proven. Specifically, the term "Hybrid criteria" does not mean a package that is necessarily presented. However, the term could describe a general concept in a situation in which a known perspective seems too conceptually distant at the present time, knowing the fact that it could possibly be developed based on related requirements. Moreover, hybrid criteria compared with other criteria types are more realistic, as they include uncertainty within modeling processes, making use of varying MCDM methods simultaneously to establish four different groups as shown in Figure 2. and ideas about possible outcomes that a Multi-Aspect Criterion must take into account. Therefore, two primary conditions necessary to present a new Multi-Aspect Criterion are required to: • have a certain definition • imagine the future A Multi-Aspect Criterion is categorized in the two following groups:

Hybrid criteria as a new criterion
According to the future needs and scenarios, some criteria are considered as a package that is driven by a new criterion. Although hybrid criteria are introduced as a package, the current situation can be justified by and classified as different research areas. Uncertainties are included in PMADM models, creating a significant challenge among many others, where definitions such as criteria and alternatives are required. Hybrid criteria aid in comprising scenarios in the classic MADM models if they are effectively proven. Specifically, the term "Hybrid criteria" does not mean a package that is necessarily presented. However, the term could describe a general concept in a situation in which a known perspective seems too conceptually distant at the present time, knowing the fact that it could possibly be developed based on related requirements. Moreover, hybrid criteria compared with other criteria types are more realistic, as they include uncertainty within modeling processes, making use of varying MCDM methods simultaneously to establish four different groups as shown in Figure 2. Criteria of common MADM methods are relatively independent and hierarchical. While hybrid criteria link interdependent and sub-structured criteria, uncertainties can use fuzzy/gray numbers to achieve a realistic decision-making process. Secondly, hybrid criteria combined as a new criterion are brought to a higher level of criteria structure at which the future comes with aspirations. Also, the procedure of ranking achieved by MADM method(s) will be substituted for performance improvement as a new hybrid criterion.

A lately defined concept for the other criteria as a criterion
The criteria that have different aspects with unique parts and definitions are named accordingly. In other words, some features and definitions will be imagined and considered as common features or definitions in the future when solving a decision-making challenge. This is more complicated than their current imagination and background. Conceptually, definition of a criterion needs to be presented in a novel manner. In fact, a number of criteria outline the best way to describe the situation in the future, given that the definition of a new perspective in presenting criteria can maintain the importance of criteria in terms of quantity, status, and position. To compare briefly, the main difference between these two approaches is the creation of a new definition and expression of the new criterion as opposed to the common definitions of criteria, known as a new mixed/hybrid criterion. Due to the future vagueness and decision-making process variabilities, a proper and Criteria of common MADM methods are relatively independent and hierarchical. While hybrid criteria link interdependent and sub-structured criteria, uncertainties can use fuzzy/gray numbers to achieve a realistic decision-making process. Secondly, hybrid criteria combined as a new criterion are brought to a higher level of criteria structure at which the future comes with aspirations. Also, the procedure of ranking achieved by MADM method(s) will be substituted for performance improvement as a new hybrid criterion.

A lately defined concept for the other criteria as a criterion
The criteria that have different aspects with unique parts and definitions are named accordingly. In other words, some features and definitions will be imagined and considered as common features or definitions in the future when solving a decision-making challenge. This is more complicated than their current imagination and background. Conceptually, definition of a criterion needs to be presented in a novel manner. In fact, a number of criteria outline the best way to describe the situation in the future, given that the definition of a new perspective in presenting criteria can maintain the importance of criteria in terms of quantity, status, and position. To compare briefly, the main difference between these two approaches is the creation of a new definition and expression of the new criterion as opposed to the common definitions of criteria, known as a new mixed/hybrid criterion. Due to the future vagueness and decision-making process variabilities, a proper and accurate decision fails to achieve, specifically when hybrid criteria are defined and modeled within a decision-making process. Hypothetically, proper decision making may be similar to what is already planned for the near or distant future following long-term forecasting calculation. However, humanity must be reasonably sure of future events and unexpected happenings, which either positively or negatively affect final decision-making outcomes. This leads to future dimensions in terms of overcoming the vagueness and blurriness of the future while attempting to make a decision. As a result, a priority necessarily emerges that is connected with the set goal of the investigating criterion as follows: 1.
Evaluation reliability of hybrid criterion 2.
Acceptability to the sponsor (expert) First and foremost, reliability of criterion evaluation is of great significance when it comes to the constitution of a hybrid criterion. In fact, a hybrid criterion needs to be set up for crude practicality before stepping towards hybridization. Afterward, other outlooks of the future accompany it and must be incorporated into through the rest of the calculation. Secondly, the approachability of the criterion requires further investigation in terms of its future occurrence, in order to outline the costs of implementation. Lastly, experts' thoughts are included as if the criterion has passed through a process of creditability, for which the last step is lodged through experts'/sponsors' ideas. This step is commonly known as a questionnaire-filling process in which experts are completely in charge of weighting pre-determined criteria to further investigate the next stages of the decision-making process.

How to Consider Multi-Aspect Criterion in Practice
One of the most vital topics in applying Multi-Aspect Criterion is weighting approach. Criteria weighting is a crucial challenge that presents three probable important approaches as follows:

Multi-aspect weighting
This is directly applied for Multi-Aspect Criterion. It is also capable of using fuzzy and grey numbers due to the application of flexibly different dimensions, which are provided for each Multi-Aspect Criterion and for which each is assigned a separate weighting logic.

Time-based weighting
This includes dynamic, periodic, and constant weighting. The main object of time-based weighting is to demonstrate well-defined time periods. Moreover, it includes a multi-step approach while weighting. The time-based weighting process in this category is not necessarily fixed and might face different periods of future change, although the changes are unclear on occurrence of events.

Approach-based weighting
Approach-based weighting could be either explorative or descriptive, as previously defined. However, when it is descriptive structure it is more useful. Also, sensitive weighting is applicable, supported by feedbacks and justification.
The hybrid approach is imaginable according to the triple approaches (three ways).

Multi-Aspect Criterion Based on Examples of Sustainability
Having described the two approaches, a Multi-Aspect Criterion is introduced in practice. Hypothetically exemplified, criteria are presented to define a suitable and probable future. This is only defined by reasonable logic when a trend seems measurable through the time periods. The following sections show why this approach is an integral part of MADM models. As MADM models and methods are applicable and important in the field of sustainability, it is clear that these new approaches apply to new perspectives in sustainability issues [67][68][69][70].
Clearly explained, a Multi-Aspect Criterion is not itself imaginable at the present time; however, it will be in the long-term. When it comes to a Multi-Aspect Criterion, each separate concept of the present time is merged with the future, in which new concepts of meaninglessness at the present become meaningful in the future. This is shown in the example below, called Exergy. Finally, the Multi-Aspect Criterion currently defined undergoes trend analysis for better scenario planning and implementation of social desires in a community.

First Trend
The first trend explains the concept of sustainability as either a criterion or criteria. Previously, economic, social, and environmental issues were used as different criteria, each of which could be combined into many possible groupings of criteria. Although today the triple aspects of sustainability are vital to MADM modeling, in main policies sustainable development or sustainability (as it shown in Figure 3) usually develop different questions, challenges, and problems from varying scientific backgrounds [71,72].
Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 15 present time is merged with the future, in which new concepts of meaninglessness at the present become meaningful in the future. This is shown in the example below, called Exergy. Finally, the Multi-Aspect Criterion currently defined undergoes trend analysis for better scenario planning and implementation of social desires in a community.

First Trend
The first trend explains the concept of sustainability as either a criterion or criteria. Previously, economic, social, and environmental issues were used as different criteria, each of which could be combined into many possible groupings of criteria. Although today the triple aspects of sustainability are vital to MADM modeling, in main policies sustainable development or sustainability (as it shown in Figure 3) usually develop different questions, challenges, and problems from varying scientific backgrounds [71,72]. Recently, futures sustainability has become a new framework for evaluating the main policies, or at least it can withstand evaluation. Publicly, policies of strategic foresight, very long-term planning, and future sustainability (as shown in Figure 4) are seen as effective and important parts of evaluations. Tonn [73] developed this new approach in practice, which made use of the differences and changes in each section of the sustainability framework to develop in a strategic foresight plan. Three main principles defined for futures sustainability and emphasized by some primary approaches are undoubtedly necessary for the future and humankind. Currently, futures sustainability is imagined as an umbrella for the concept of sustainability, in which the future economy, environment, and society position introduce alternative countries as the leaders of the world, in terms of the long-term forecast. Moreover, the phrase "futures sustainability" benefits from the Economist Intelligent Unit (EIU) and describes the fifty-year forecast to 2050, establishing a trend of future foresight.
This new approach is only one important criterion that must be assumed in policies and projects in critical future decisions. Undoubtedly, different concepts and approaches could be imagined in this phase and are dynamically defined in the big picture, having more depth within their structures. Eventually, futures sustainability is presented as a new approach that covers the triple sustainability concepts and plays the role of a final goal to seek other approaches and trends simultaneously. Additionally, other trends and approaches can be developed flexibly either in parallel or separately. Recently, futures sustainability has become a new framework for evaluating the main policies, or at least it can withstand evaluation. Publicly, policies of strategic foresight, very long-term planning, and future sustainability (as shown in Figure 4) are seen as effective and important parts of evaluations. Tonn [73] developed this new approach in practice, which made use of the differences and changes in each section of the sustainability framework to develop in a strategic foresight plan. Three main principles defined for futures sustainability and emphasized by some primary approaches are undoubtedly necessary for the future and humankind. Currently, futures sustainability is imagined as an umbrella for the concept of sustainability, in which the future economy, environment, and society position introduce alternative countries as the leaders of the world, in terms of the long-term forecast. Moreover, the phrase "futures sustainability" benefits from the Economist Intelligent Unit (EIU) and describes the fifty-year forecast to 2050, establishing a trend of future foresight.
This new approach is only one important criterion that must be assumed in policies and projects in critical future decisions. Undoubtedly, different concepts and approaches could be imagined in this phase and are dynamically defined in the big picture, having more depth within their structures. Eventually, futures sustainability is presented as a new approach that covers the triple sustainability concepts and plays the role of a final goal to seek other approaches and trends simultaneously. Additionally, other trends and approaches can be developed flexibly either in parallel or separately.

Second Trend
The second trend basically abides by the previous trend, demonstrating how the world has changed. Sustainability, shown graphically below, is a new approach. It seeks to better envision the future and evolve itself as better visions are reached in the future.
Another trend (method) to consider is Exergy, which combines and grows energy, environment, and sustainable development in a common framework [74].
Obviously, sustainable development (sustainability) is simultaneously a vital but not a core part of this approach. The environment is included due to its importance in this approach and helps create a balanced situation in developing phases. Lastly, energy is introduced as a core item in this case, in equal proportion to the other items of the Exergy balance.
The equilibrium is shown in Figure 5. These are not the only trends and cases in critical policies presented as criteria. Actually, these trends are not only predictable and readable in literature but are also capable of being developed

Second Trend
The second trend basically abides by the previous trend, demonstrating how the world has changed. Sustainability, shown graphically below, is a new approach. It seeks to better envision the future and evolve itself as better visions are reached in the future.
Another trend (method) to consider is Exergy, which combines and grows energy, environment, and sustainable development in a common framework [74].
Obviously, sustainable development (sustainability) is simultaneously a vital but not a core part of this approach. The environment is included due to its importance in this approach and helps create a balanced situation in developing phases. Lastly, energy is introduced as a core item in this case, in equal proportion to the other items of the Exergy balance.
The equilibrium is shown in Figure 5.

Second Trend
The second trend basically abides by the previous trend, demonstrating how the world has changed. Sustainability, shown graphically below, is a new approach. It seeks to better envision the future and evolve itself as better visions are reached in the future.
Another trend (method) to consider is Exergy, which combines and grows energy, environment, and sustainable development in a common framework [74].
Obviously, sustainable development (sustainability) is simultaneously a vital but not a core part of this approach. The environment is included due to its importance in this approach and helps create a balanced situation in developing phases. Lastly, energy is introduced as a core item in this case, in equal proportion to the other items of the Exergy balance.
The equilibrium is shown in Figure 5. These are not the only trends and cases in critical policies presented as criteria. Actually, these trends are not only predictable and readable in literature but are also capable of being developed These are not the only trends and cases in critical policies presented as criteria. Actually, these trends are not only predictable and readable in literature but are also capable of being developed with both expert panels' ideas and explorative/descriptive methodologies. Moreover, perspectives can potentially accompany them in both theoretical and practical aspects.
Policymakers, pioneers of the markets; regulatory bodies like the United Nations (UN), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and other similar organizations; leading universities (both international and local); and all other strong authorities can shape the world and the future. These powers can and do present new concepts for different societies. As the world progresses, their role will expand. Therefore, policymakers of a community, society, or country can use this new approach in their plans for building a better future, although this approach still needs to be developed and implemented. However, due to its unfamiliarity and novelty, it is not possible to demonstrate the advantages and positive contributions of this approach. Furthermore, to obtain reliable outputs we need to manage each aspect, which can be time-consuming, as only time shapes the future.

Discussion
PMADM presents a new vision, considering the future of classic MADM models. Although it seems like a simple approach, the depth of the main concept identifies the type of structure that PMADM model undoubtedly faces. Classic items conceptually need new perspectives and dimensions, and, fortunately, novel and distinct items can be easily included by this new approach. Criteria, weights of criteria, and alternatives form the basis of each classic MADM model, while in the primary PMADM model some new visions for alternatives are analyzed and presented.
Criteria as one of the most important parts of each MADM model need new attention and evolutionary paradigms. Different dimensions are imaginably defined to create a new structure of the criteria as part of each PMADM model. Multi-Aspect Criterion introduces two basic parts identified for the new concept as follows: hybrid criteria as a new criterion, and a newly defined concept for the criteria as a criterion. Identifiably, these newly introduced concepts shed light on the atmosphere of the future in practice.
Facing the challenges, problems, and shortcomings that are critical for each community, society, and stakeholders depends on either future occurrences or the future course of actions in the real world. Based on the two mentioned standpoints, an appropriate space is planned and a suitable aspect for Multi-Aspect Criterion can be selected as an example of a PMADM model for the future. Justifiably, new reasons are taken into consideration, because future requirements emerge flexibly with dynamics and multi-dimensions. Research on this new concept will certainly expand more in the future, according to challenges and problems that arise.
Definitions and interpretations of many concepts are evolving, creating new methods of criteria presentation, which are evaluated according to the present pace of change. Attempts to scale the pace of these changes are assessed by how much the approach can be changed, developed, and expanded in the future. Criteria together with their definitions, interpretations, and hermeneutic approaches must be expanded due to a simple explorative and descriptive perspective in facing unknowns of the future. However, the future is no longer unknown, as general policy makers know our future needs, limitations, expectations, and probable challenges. Accordingly, societies should identify their probable and perceptible solutions for the future.
Finally, Multi-Aspect Criterion is a new bridge to a realizable future, in which classic models are not strong enough to meet our future needs and expectations. For this reason, developing the essential and fundamental parts of a reliable decision is necessary., according to the requirements and special structures of a PMADM model in future-oriented decision challenges.

Conclusions
Unlike other novel approaches, PMADM still needs to be expanded and developed in a professional and logical manner. It still needs to advance classical components, namely criteria, weights, alternatives, and various new aspects and dimensions. These new parts and items need definitions, which are dealt with in an in-depth manner using different concepts and frameworks. Individually, criteria play a key role in decision-making processes and in the comprehensive evaluation of alternatives. They and their importance in future-oriented cases were central to this study, in which a new concept can explain a core focus in the future.
The "Multi-Aspect Criterion", introduced as a new concept regarding sustainable dimensions, is considered and interpreted. Illustratively, this criterion should have certain definitions and be imaginable in the future, although it is not completely understandable at present. This concept performs based on the situation in which both sides of explorative/descriptive topics of the future are presented, for which PMADM modeling appears as a professional activity of doable and understandable performances. However, most national and international foresight programs and plans merely imagine one-sided criteria, in reality due to the fast progress of our world.
The main point for future consideration of the Multi-Aspect Criterion is that it can be defined as a hybrid criterion that performs in a new structure as a new criterion. This is a newly defined concept as a criterion that is not an issue today but will become imaginable as a vital point in unknown events in the future. These above-mentioned criteria need to be weighted differently. A newly defined criterion necessitates complicated processing methods for weighting, which are presented as follows: multi-aspect weighting, time-based weighting, and approach-based weighting. Researchers and policymakers make their own decisions on the weighting after choosing one.
Consequently, a new vision is designed by but not limited to this framework in which new contributions are predicted for PMADM modeling. Having reasoned about criteria and their relation to the alternatives, other factors can shape this relation dynamically and prospectively to anticipate future events through a flexible modeling process. Finally, definition processes in this new concept are another potential niche that will likely attract research attention, supposing a reality-based perspective of the future.


extfieldsofstudy: Business Medicine

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Financing Agriculture in Nigeria through Agricultural Extension Services of Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPS): The Case of Edo State, Nigeria

The ADPs were designed in response to a fall in agricultural productivity and hence a concern to sustain domestic food supplies. The study examined financing agriculture in Nigeria through agricultural extension services of ADPs. It sought to ascertain the extent to which agricultural extension services of the ADPs have impacted the financing of agriculture in six communities in three selected local government areas in Edo South senatorial district, Nigeria using a sample of 120 respondents. Stratified random sampling was used to select the respondents. Interview schedule served as the research instrument. The research data were analyzed using one sample t-test ANOVA and multiple regression techniques, which served as the inferential statistics. The research findings showed that the extension services of ADP have impacted significantly on crop and farm development in the selected communities but not on employment creation and the development of infrastructural facilities. The study also revealed that there was significant difference between the implementation of the projects in the selected communities, as revealed by the post hock test. On the basis of the research findings, the need for a complete redesign of the project and proper monitoring of its implementation to ensure that it achieves its stated goals was suggested, among others.

Introduction
Prior to independence, agriculture was the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. Even at threshold of independence the scenario did not show any change, as agriculture contributed well over ninety percent to the nation' foreign exchange earnings. However, with the discovery and subsequent exploitation and exportation of crude oil in commercial quantities, the contribution of agriculture to the nation' s foreign exchange and GDP began to dwindle as attention shifted from agriculture to Oil [1]. The domination of the other sectors of the economy by the oil sector made the Nigerian economy a monoculture with the attendant implications. This led to the disengagement of many able-bodied men from productive activities in search for oil money, thus precipitating an unprecedented rural-urban drift in the 1970s. The neglect of the agricultural sector and the subsequent rural-urban drift created a visible dent in Nigeria's food supply and thus signaled the need to embark on massive importation of food stuffs in the early 1980s.
Government's response to the glaring distortion was to embark on a series of interventionist programmes referred to as the Agricultural Development Projects (ADPs). The ADPs were initiated in the mid-1970s as Nigeria's oil production and revenues were rapidly expanding and stimulating rapid urban growth [2]. The ADPs were designed to increase crop production through a coordinated approach to rural development. The main elements were improved technology (and the means to get it to farmers), increased supply of farming inputs (especially fertilizers), and extensive infrastructure improvements (especially rural roads and water supplies) [3]. At the initial stage, three pilot enclave projects were undertaken in the northern part of the country. By the late 1970s, the initial results were considered sufficiently encouraging to justify expansion [2]. Accordingly, a series of similar projects, some covering whole states, were prepared and implementation began in the early 1980s and lasted through the decade. Bendel ADP, which later became Edo ADP in 1992, was among this group. Each of these groups included four basic components, farm and crop development (expanded research, extension, and input supply), infrastructure development (feeder road construction and maintenance, water supplies, markets and storage facilities), institutional support, establishment of project entities separate from the state agriculture departments, and technical assistance,  [3], Ugwu [10], as well as Olujenyo [11], among others.

Objectives of the Study
The main objective of the study was to determine the impact of agricultural extension services of Edo state ADP on agricultural financing in Edo state using six selected communities in three local government areas in Edo south senatorial district, by focusing on the activities of Edo ADP Extension Division. The specific objectives of the study are to determine: The extent to which the extension services of Edo ADP have impacted farm and crop development in the selected communities under study; the extent to which the extension services of Edo ADP have impacted infrastructural development in the communities under its coverage, and the extent to which the extension services of Edo ADP have contributed to the reduction of unemployment through the attraction of able-bodied men and women to agriculture.

Literature Review
Human history is replete with a list of past civilizations which flourished but eventually declined partly as a result of inadequate management of their respective environments. In order to forestall a repeat of history, there is need to devote adequate attention to the good management and conservation of the environment so that increased food, fibers, and other resources can be produced at minimum cost as well as ensure that the risk to the survival of future generations is minimized [12]. Agricultural development, a subset of economic development, implies a substantial increase in the level of production and productivity over a reasonable length of time and the subsequent improved wellbeing of farmers as reflected in their higher per capita income. Rural development, which is part of the central focus of AP, relates, not only to a sustained increase in the level of production and productivity of all rural dwellers, including farmers and a substantial improvement in their wellbeing manifested by increasing per capita income and standard of living; but also leads to a sustained physical, social and economic improvement of rural communities [9]. Rural development can thus be seen as a veritable tool for fighting poverty and achieving economic prosperity at the grass root level. The concept of rural development embraced by most countries connotes a process through which rural poverty is alleviated by sustained increases in the productivity and incomes of lowincome workers and households [13].

Concept of ADP
The ADPs were designed in response to a fall in agricultural productivity and hence a concern to sustain domestic food supplies, as labour had moved out from agriculture into more remunerative activities that were benefiting from the oil boom [2]. Conversely, domestic recycling of oil income provided the opportunity for the government, with bank support, to develop the ADPs. The projects provided agricultural investments and services, rural roads, and village water supplies. The government's adoption of the ADPs put the smallholder sector at the centre of the agricultural development strategy and marked a clear shift away from capital intensive investment projects for selected areas of high agricultural potential.
The first ADPs were enclave projects each covering a specific region within a state. Their early results impressed both the federal and state governments and there was pressure on the government to replicate the approach across all the states of the federation. By 1989, all the states of the federation, nineteen states then, had ADPs; which sought to increase food production and farm incomes. In all, it was assumed that productivity increases would result from the use of improved technology, especially planting material and fertilizer. The agricultural components of the projects were designed around systems for developing technology and transferring same to farmers, distributing modern inputs, and land development, including small-scale irrigation of FADAMA areas in the north, and land clearing. Investments in infrastructure included expanded feeder road network, construction of farm service centers for input distribution, as well as facilities for ADP staff and operations. All the projects, except that in Ilorin, supported improvements in rural water supplies.

EDO State ADP
ADP was established in Benin City in 1986 with focus on all the local government areas in the old Bendel state. With the creation of Edo state in 1991, the focus (coverage areas) of the scheme became restricted to all the local government areas in Edo state. Like what obtains in all the Northern states of the federation, the scheme is a tripartite arrangement between the federal, states, and local governments. That notwithstanding, at the moment, the state government is solely responsible for the payment of staff salaries. The areas of intervention of Edo ADP include infrastructural development, such as construction and maintenance of earth roads; provision of water through the sinking of Boreholes in the communities; building of markets; and provision of storage facilities; as well as farm and crop development (rural agriculture) through the provision of fertilizers, pesticides and farm implements to rural farmers at subsidized rates as well as the provision of consultancy services and public enlightenment of farmers.
The FADAMA programme of the ADP, which began in the north has also taken off in the south and is currently undertaken by Edo ADP. FADAMA involves interventionist programmes, using relevant methodologies in areas were water is close to the surface of the earth. The frequency of intervention is contingent upon necessity as well as availability of funds, but also subject to political consideration at times. The major constraints currently being faced by Edo ADP include: Inadequate manpower; and the preference of the state ministry of agriculture over ADP by the administration of Edo state. The situation is was alleged to be threatening the capacity of the Edo ADP to embark on its traditional interventionist programmes since such functions are now being contracted to the Ministry of Agriculture in mid-2000.

Empirical Review
Naswem & Ejembi [6], investigated "reviving agricultural extension for effective transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture". They sought to identify factors that led to the erosion of the extension system and point the path to an effective revitalization of the system as part of the new agricultural transformation agenda policy. They discussed the theoretical roots of the ADP that drives the Nigerian extension system, and the contribution that extension can make to the success of the agenda. They also highlighted the weaknesses of past extension efforts. The need for the younger generation to be deliberately involved in agriculture was suggested, among others.
Ammani, Auta & Aliyu [3], investigated the "challenges to the sustainability of the ADP system in Nigeria" with a view to analysing the problems constraining the sustainability, and by implication, the effective performance of the ADP system in Nigeria. The focal problem was inadequate funding. They developed and transposed a problem tree, thus transforming the root causes and consequences identified into root solutions. Consequently, the need to focus on improving funding for the ADPs through deduction of state and federal governments counter-part funds for the ADPs from source was suggested among others.
Olujenyo [11], investigated the "impact of ADP on the quality of social existence of rural dwellers in developing economies in Ondo state (Nigeria)". The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of the ADP on the farmers in the rural areas of Ondo state, Nigeria, West Africa; by ascertaining its impact on the farming operations of its target farmers, the farmer-related factors and the organizational factors that are associated with the impact of the ADP. Survey design was employed, and structured questionnaire was used to elicit information from 288 respondents consisting of 144 contact farmers and 144 non-contact farmers using random and systematic sampling respectively. Correlation analysis was used to test the hypotheses formulated. The results revealed that there was a significant difference in mean yields of the hectarage of land cultivated by the farmers and mean score of articles of convenience possessed by the farmers before after the inception of the ADP in all the four crops examined.
Nchuchuwe & Adejuwon [9], investigated "the Challenges of agriculture and rural development in Nigeria". They observe that African agriculture remains largely traditional and concentrated in the hands of smallholders and pastoralists, and the neglect of agriculture has precipitated negative net migration. They further discuss the problems and challenges posed by this and government responses to the rural infrastructural needs of the people. The need for an adequate level of strategically targeted investment in agriculture, upgrade of rural infrastructure, boosting of productivity and increase competitiveness of the farm output were, suggested among others.
Ugwu [10], examined "contributions of ADPs to rural livelihood and food security in Nigeria" The genesis and historical development of the ADP system were presented. They observed that the critical mandate/objective of the ADPs was to boost agricultural production as well as contribute to rural livelihood and food security. The achievements and impact of the ADPs were identified to be in the area of revitalized extension service, local capacity building, rural infrastructural development, input distribution, technology development, transfer and adoption, as well as improved rural livelihood and food security. Significant ADP achievements in the above focus areas have guaranteed programme continuity for the past two decades in Nigeria. The major challenges were undue political interference by some state governments, cash flow instability due to irregular payment of counterpart funding by some state governments, rapid staff turnover in most ADPs and adverse effects of some macro-economic policies of government, among others. The need for government to give increased political support was suggested, among others.
Adamu & Mohammed [4], investigated "the effect of ADP on the rural farmers in Adamawa state, Nigeria". Data were collected on annual crop output, annual income, farm size, and use of improved technology, access to credit among farmers, farmers' training and rural infrastructure as well as structured questionnaire and personal interviews while t test was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that Adamawa ADP had positive and significant impact on rural farmers' productivity, income, access to credit, standard of living as measured by assets ownership. However, there was no significant impact on the rural infrastructure, adoption of improved technologies and farm sizes. Consequently, the need to enhance the provision of rural infrastructure and the needed technologies; as was as fund the project adequately were recommended, among others.
Omonijo, Toluwase, Oludayo & Uche [8], examined "impacts of ADP on rural dwellers in Nigeria using the people of Isan Ekiti, Oye Local Government Area of Ekiti state as case". The survey method was employed, and questionnaire served as the instrument. They retrieved and analysed 73 questionnaires using descriptive and inferential statistics. Multiple linear regression analysis served as the inferential test. Results reveal that there was a significant relationship between ADP (through increased provision of pesticides, improved seeds to farmers, establishment of new infrastructure as well as provision of fertilizers) and increased food production in the locality. However, accessibility of credit by farmers had no significant effect on increased Agricultural productivity. The need for government to increase its effort in the area of agricultural credit financing was suggested. study areas. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 200 respondents made up of 40 extension staff and 60 farmers from each state. Primary and secondary data were employed. Paired t-test was used in hypothesis testing. Results showed that 3 (number of extension agents, farm visits and monthly review meetings) out of the 11 extension performance indices measured in the two States' ADPs, showed significant difference at 5% level in the performance of Abia and Enugu states ADPs. Consequently, the need for government to make haste to employ better trained extension staff to enhance service delivery in Enugu State was suggested.
Enwelu, Enwereuzor, Asadu, Walleji & Nguoke [5], investigated the "access and Use of information communication technologies in Anambra State ADP". Multi stage sampling was used to select 69 respondents from the zones, blocks and circles and questionnaire was used to elicit the desired data. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis and simple linear regression. It was observed that mobile phone was highly accessible to extension workers as well as in ADP office and very often used. Poor ICT skills, inadequate support by organization and government and high cost of maintenance of ICT tools were found to militate against extension workers' access and use of ICTs. Number of ICTs owned was found to have significant influence on level of ICT utilization among extension workers.

Methodology
The study adopted the cross-sectional survey design since it sought to ascertain respondents' perception of "agricultural extension services ADP in Edo State" using a research instrument. The population of the study consisted of small scale farmers in Edo south senatorial district. Six communities, two each from three local government areas of Ikpoba-Okha, Egor, and Oredo local government areas were the focus of the study. The communities were Iyekogba, Ogba, Etete, Evboriaria, Egor and Ugbiyokno.
It was desired to be ninety-five percent (95%) confident that the perception of the sampled respondents will not differ by more than nine percent from the perception of the true population of the study.
Thus, Where; Z = standard score corresponding to the level of significance (0.05 in this case) and D = maximum allowable difference between the true population proportion and the sampled respondents, which is also 0.09 in this case Agbadudu [14]. = 118.6. This value was approximated to 120. Using a total sample size of 120, twenty (20) respondents were sampled in each community. The interior parts of the communities around the village heads were focusessssd on, to ensure access to the rural farmers. Thus, the communities were stratified according to the nearest fifty compounds to the resident of the village head. Subsequently, simple random sampling was used to select the desired number of respondents from each community. Thus, the sampling technique used was stratified random. Subsequently, an interview schedule was used to elicit the necessary information from the sampled respondents. The choice of the interview schedule as the research instrument was informed by its flexibility which allows items to be adapted to the respondents' level of education. The interview schedule had two parts -the Bio-data, which featured items on the respondents' demographic characteristics and the core-subject matter, which featured items that addressed the research problem. The question-response format of the research questions was the Likert type five-point scale with options ranging from a region of strong agreement (strongly Agree), through a neutral zone (Not Sure), to a region of strong disagreement (Strongly Disagree). Research data were analyzed, using descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, mean difference and standard error mean; as well as inferential statistics -t-test for Equality of means, ANOVA and regression analysis. Data analysis were implemented using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) 23.0 [15][16][17][18][19][20].

Introduction
Out of the 120 sampled respondents, information was initially elicited from 111 of them while the remaining 9 could not appear for the survey. A supplementary sample was done to replace the 9 that could not volunteer information. The results of the data analysis are presented below.

Test if hypotheses
Six hypotheses were tested. The results of the tests are presented below A comparison of Agricultural Extension Services with crop development in the communities revealed that the mean score associated with respondent's perception of the extent to which Edo ADP has influenced crop development projects in their communities was 3.18 with a standard deviation of 0.88 and a standard error mean of 0.08. Against a test value of 3, this resulted in a mean difference of 0.18. A t-test for equality of means revealed that this difference was significant at the five per cent level since the significant (2-tailed) probability of 0.024 is less than 0.05, the assumed level of significance. Consequently, at the ninetyfive percent (95%) confidence level, the agricultural extension services of Edo ADP have significantly affected farm development in the communities (Table 1).

Agricultural extension services of EDO, ADP vs. farm development
A comparison of Agricultural Extension Services of Edo ADP with Farm development in the communities revealed that the mean score associated with respondent's perception of the extent to which Edo ADP has influenced farm development projects in their communities was 3.16 with a standard deviation of 0.74 and a standard error mean of 0.35. Against a test value of 3, this resulted in a mean difference of 0.16. A t-test for equality of means revealed that this difference was significant at the five per cent level since the significant (2-tailed) probability of 0.031 is less than 0.05, the assumed level of significance. Consequently, at the ninety-five percent (95%) confidence level, it is safe to conclude that the agricultural extension services of Edo ADP have significantly affected farm development in the communities ( Table  2).  A comparison of Agricultural Extension Services of Edo ADP with development of infrastructural facilities in the communities revealed that the mean score associated with respondents perception of the extent to which Edo ADP has influenced the development of infrastructural facilities in their communities was 3.15 with a standard deviation of 0.86 and a standard error mean of 0.078. Against a test value of 3, this resulted in a mean difference of 0.15. A t-test for equality of means revealed that this mean difference was not significant at the five per cent level since the significant (2-tailed) probability of 0.057 is not less than 0.05 the assumed level of significance. Consequently, at the ninety-five percent (95%) confidence level, the agricultural extension services of Edo ADP have not significantly influenced the development of infrastructural facilities in the communities (Table 3).

Agricultural extension services of EDO, ADP vs. reduction in the level of unemployment
A comparison of Agricultural Extension Services with reduction in unemployment revealed that the mean score associated with respondents' perception of the extent to which Edo ADP has influenced the reduction of unemployment in their communities was 3.147 with a standard deviation of 0.853 and a standard error mean of 0.074. Against a test value of 3, this resulted in a mean difference of 0.147. A t-test for equality of means revealed that this difference was not significant at the five per cent level since the significant (2-tailed) probability of 0.064 is not less than 0.05 the assumed level of significance. Consequently, at the ninety-five percent (95%) confidence level, the agricultural extension services of Edo ADP have not significantly influenced the reduction in the level of unemployment in the communities (Table 4).

Respondents' perception vs. location
A comparison of respondents' perception with their location revealed that there was a significant difference between respondents' perception and location since the computed F and associated significant probabilities were 5.82 and 0.003 (p < 0.01) respectively, thus indicating that at 99% confidence level, the effect of ADP is different in the locations (Table 5). A post hock test revealed that the impact of ADP in Egor local government was not significantly different from Ikpoba Okha but significantly different from Oredo (Tables 5 & 5A).  Table 6 presents the regression analysis with extension services of ADP serving as the dependent variable while crop/ farm development, infrastructural development and reduction in unemployment are the independent variables. The intention of this model is to establish the nature of the relationship between extension services of ADP and the explanatory variables. Here, the argument is based on the fact that if Y is directly proportional to X, then X is also directly proportional to Y. the results show that the adjusted R square is 0.42, thus indicating that the independent variables explain 42% of the variation in the dependent variable. Furthermore, only crop/farm development was significantly related to extension services of ADP. Infrastructural development and reduction in unemployment were not significant. Interestingly the relationship between extension services of ADP and reduction in Unemployment was negative thus indicating that increased extension services will translate to a reduction in unemployment (Table 6-8).  Predictors: (crop/farm production, infrastructural development, unemployment reduction).

Discussion of Findings
The findings show that agricultural extension services of ADP have had significant impact on crop and farm development. However, the results do not indicate significant impact on reduction in unemployment and development of infrastructural facilities in the sampled communities. The results are consistent with the findings of Olujenyo [11], Ugwu [10], Omonijo, Toluwase, Oludayo & Uche [8] and Umeh, Ekumankama, Nwachukwu & Ekwe [7]. Also, the non-significance of agricultural extension services of ADP on infrastructural facilities is consistent with the findings of Adamu & Mohammed [4]. Furthermore, the results show that the impact of ADP on the local governments is not the same. In other words, the impact of the ADP is more in some locations than others. This is consistent with Enwelu, Enwereuzor, Asadu, Walleji & Nguoke [5]. Lastly, the negative relationship between extension services of ADP and unemployment reduction indicates that with proper implementation of ADP, unemployment may be reduced. This is a point of departure from previous studies that examined impact of ADP on employment creation without ascertaining the nature of the relationship between them the two variables.

Conclusion
Agricultural Extension services of ADP have so far impacted crop and farm development significantly but have not has significant impact on infrastructural development and reduction in rural unemployment. To this end, the extension services have been impactful but have not fully exerted the desired impact on the communities in Edo state. The reason may not be unconnected with the manner of implementation. The pattern of intervention in some of the areas was significantly different others. Furthermore, it appears that the commitment of government to the projects has suffered some setbacks and the pump and pageantry that heralded its inception has subsided significantly.
This study has made significant contribution to agricultural research literature by updating previous studies on ADP in Nigeria. Furthermore, with the inverse (negative) relationship between the extension services of ADP and reduction in unemployment, it is evident that ADP made some impact, but the impact was not significant. The implication is that with proper commitment to the extension services of ADP the level of unemployment in the country will be significantly reduced. To some extent, this is a point of departure from most previous studies because they made no attempt to demonstrate the possibility of the extension services of ADP contributing to employment creation and hence reduction in unemployment.
The study was not without limitations, which could constrain the generalizability of the results of this study. First, the inability of the researcher to obtain a completely random sample, owing to logistic concerns in the rural areas was a limitation because randomness is a prerequisite for representativeness. Nevertheless, efforts were made to minimize this constraint. Secondly, the unwillingness of some sampled respondents to volunteer the desired information was a big challenge and could have further distorted the desired randomness in sample selection. The unwillingness was tackled by consistent persuasion which eventually saw only nine (9) remaining adamant in the final analysis. These nine were eventually replaced through supplementary sampling.

Recommendations/Suggestions for Further Studies
In view of the findings, the following recommendations are suggested: Firstly, concerned authorities should show adequate commitment and willingness to the success of the ADP by restrategizing and reengineering the extension services with a view to making it more encompassing in order to yield the desired impact; secondly, concerted efforts should be made to use the ADP as a means of rejuvenating agricultural sector to boost the self-reliance and self-sufficiency in food production agenda of the federal government of Nigeria as well as the diversification of the Agricultural Research & Technology: Open Access Journal nation's resource base; lastly, there is the need to also redesign the scheme to address the shortcomings, which are currently threatening to truncate the programme. Future studies should attempt to increase the sample size used in this study in order to enhance the reliability of the findings consistent with the central limit theory.

Appendix: Questionnaire
Section A Instruction: Mark X in the box as appropriate [X] ( Table 9).


CHINA AND AFGHANISTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEW SILK ROAD

At present time thanks to the Chinese initiative a unique attempt to reestablish the Ancient Silk Road is carried out. It is supposed that besides implementation of trade activity, there will be an opportunity to exchange knowledge, culture and to develop new technologies more effectively. The prospects of realization of the New Silk Road or One Belt, One Road for Central Asia, Russia, China and Afghanistan as one of the directions – are considered. The positive and negative aspects of this project are emphasized.

Since ancient times, trade has been an important element in the development of states in economic, political, cultural and other spheres of mutually beneficial cooperation, adding momentum to these areas. One of such milestones is the trade bridge between China, India and other South-East Asian countries to Europe (European nations) known as the Silk Road. In the old days, cities and countries emerged and enjoyed rapid economic growth on its routes. The orbit of the Silk Road included China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asian and Transcaucasian countries. Afghanistan held the most advantageous geopolitical and geostrategic position. The Great Silk Road, which in ancient times enabled interaction between the East and the West, passed directly through it. However, as the technological progress developed and modern vehicles appeared, the Silk Road as it was became not cost-effective for a while [3].
Currently, in the context of the global changes in all spheres of life, the search for new possibilities and ways to establish political, economic and cultural relations, the resumption of such a road emerges full-blown. The New Silk Road or One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is a unique and important project of modern times, so to say, an advanced copy of the ancient Silk Road, talked about since the late 20th and early 21st century. In 2013, the leader of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping gave a new lease of life to the development of economic, political and cultural ties. Several potential options for laying overland routes: the Northern, Central and Southern, were anticipated [12]. The authors would like to focus on the Northern one, which has to pass along the following route: China − Central Asia − Russia − Europe.
For the Central Asian region and in particular for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, this project is a landmark. One Belt, One Road (OBOR) will stabilize the situation, improve the political and economic situation, expand foreign politics and investment for the reconstruction and development of the country as there has been the warfare in Afghanistan for decades, and the participation of all countries is required in order to make things better.
The implementation of One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is expected to take decades, the cost of it will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars USA [8]. For the time being, it is impossible to fully predict what it will mean for the world economy, but it is already clear that many companies and investors seek to join this project, not to miss the profit. The new Silk Road anticipates not only the growth of international trade, but also the knowledge sharing being critical nowadays, development of technologies and cultural exchange.
Economic preferences from the revival of the Silk Route are as follows: -new routes will be created for expedited delivery of goods from Southeast Asia to Europe and back, that directly affects the financial turnover time of trading and manufacturing companies, and the interchangeability of technologies and fashion of goods; -active economic development of Central and Western China, establishment of appropriate infrastructure there to boost employment: the transport communications passing through the Central Asian states and their branches to Afghanistan would enable China to get closer to the mineral deposits in the region and to use cheaper labor in the future; -for the Central Asian countries and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conditions will be created to develop mining and related industries, and infrastructure, to involve a substantial part of the population in the production process, to promote the export of local products to the global market; -Russia is, to some extent, also interested in the revitalization of the Silk Route, taking into account the above economic and financial benefits from the transit of goods. Meanwhile, it is necessary to draw attention to the fact that the individual options of this project are considered without the participation of the Russian Federation, i.e. routes passing through Transcaucasia, Iran (bypassing Russia) (see the map) [3].
At the recent Russia-Kazakhstan Business Forum, Nursultan Nazarbayev said that the mutual interest of our nations lies in establishing a strong transport and logistic infrastructure between Europe and Asia. In Kazakhstan, the transport corridors from East to West, from North to South are already formed. New routes through Kazakhstan from China into Russia and Europe via the Caspian Sea to the Caucasus and Turkey shall reduce the cargo delivery time twice at an average as compared to the traditional sea routes [10].
Another new route from Russia through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to the Persian Gulf appeared. This is a through railway to the Middle East without transshipments between different transport modes. The time of cargo transportation from Siberia and the Urals to the Middle Eastern countries will be reduced by four days. Such opportunities did not exist before. However, cargo transportation from China to the Indian Ocean, taking into account the relief, has good prospects only when using the territory of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Given the positive factors of One Belt, One Road (OBOR), it is impossible not to take into account the negative ones: when implementing this project, some conflicts may occur, which could lead to a new cold war between the East and the West for dominance in Eurasia [3; 11].
When announcing the opening of the economic belt, the People's Republic of China leader Xi Jinping assured that China does not seek to dominate in the region or to create a zone of influence there. While expressing the good intentions, Beijing called for cooperation with Moscow. China does not intend to propose projects to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation and bilateral relations, which China values highly [1; 9].
The relationship of the People's Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan proceeds from the premise that they are neighbors as well. Although, the length of their common border is only 92,45 km in hard-to-reach highlands. On the Chinese side, the border administrative unit is the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and on the Afghan side − the Badakhshan Province. The main problem here are Uighur separatist groups and their alleged links with rebel groups in Afghanistan. In this regard, Beijing cannot ignore the Afghan factor in its foreign policy and foreign economic sectors [2].
According to certain analysts, two facts foster the interaction between China and Afghanistan. Firstly, the ability to theoretically provide the construction of infrastructure in Afghanistan thanks to the financial resources of China. Secondly, the traditionally friendly relations between PRC and Pakistan [5]. This circumstance will help Beijing use the Pakistani resource for forging an intra-Afghan dialogue (influence of Pakistani intelligence services on the Taliban).
However, it should be borne in mind that Pakistan is not interested in stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan and strengthening its economic and military power before the territorial disputes with the IRA (along the so-called Durand Line) are settled. This factor should be taken into account when implementing the project, as security in the border areas cannot be guaranteed.
China is taking measures to strengthen relations with Afghanistan. Thus, in March this year, a PRC delegation headed by General Fang Fenghui, Chief of Staff, visited Kabul. At a meeting with Ashraf Ghani, President of IRA, General Fang promised support for the efforts of the Afghan Government to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. In addition, China also supports the membership of IRA in SCO and the counter-terrorism association of member countries. A senior official from China announced that additional 480 million yuan (72 million dollars USA) shall be granted to the Afghan Armed Forces [7].
Despite the heavy political, economic, social and cultural situation in Afghanistan, the positive trends in cooperation with the Central Asian countries, China and the Russian Federation are obvious, Afghanistan has gained considerable experience of participation in trans-regional economic projects. In the face of an imminent withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country, Kabul will be forced to intensify its efforts to build a more active cooperation with neighbors, including those located in the post-Soviet Central Asia. Thus, the China's New Silk Road strategy may become the most promising for IRA trans-regional project.
In view of this, in May 2016, during the visit of Abdullah Abdullah to Beijing, two agreements on cooperation between Afghanistan and China were signed. In particular, Salahuddin Rabbani, Chief Executive of Afghanistan and Minister of Foreign Affairs, met Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of PRC, and Wang Yi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, who have signed an agreement on technical cooperation, production and export of Afghan saffron, and a memorandum of understanding on the New Silk Road project [4].
It should be noted that, the first railroad connecting the two countries was built in Afghanistan within this program, with the support of China. Thus, in the autumn this year, a cargo train from the Jiangsu Province (China) arrived in Hairatan (Afghanistan) [6].
There are more positive than negative aspects of this project for each member of such a unique and great project as the New Silk Road or One Belt, One Road. And we hope that the realization of this project will help to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan.


Assessment of Siosar's community sustainability in post-disaster relocation of Mount Sinabung eruption

The practices and ways of humans interact with the environment will affect the sustainability of the society life. The achievement of a sustainability in a community in a certain place can be measured from the condition of balance of three important aspects which are ecological, social and spiritual aspects. Each region has a different level of sustainability. The purpose of this research is to analyze the sustainability level of the community resettlement from the Mount Sinabung eruption. The research was carried out in the Karos Siosar Relocation Area of North Sumatra. The Community Sustainability Assessment (CSA) method introduced by the Global Ecovillage Network/GEN is used to analyze its level of sustainability. The results of the research show that of the total value of each aspect is 523 which means showing a good start towards sustainability. However, when viewed from each aspect, the ecological aspect with a low value is 139 when compared to the other two aspects and shows the need for action in achieving sustainability. The social aspect obtained 208 values and spiritual aspects obtained 176 values, which shows that the people in the Siosar relocation area showed a good start towards sustainability.

Introduction
The eruption of Mount Sinabung since the first eruption on August 27, 2010 up until now has resulted in a series of natural phenomena, such as earthquakes, eruption cloud, lava flows, incandescent lava, flare stones and poisonous gases that bring disaster to the people living nearby [1]. After the occurrence of the danger that triggered the disaster, there were groups of people who are safe and survived. However, they must feel the impact not only on the physical aspect, but they can also face the potential for social impacts, such as stagnation in economic growth, weakening social relations, increasing poverty rates, loss of livelihoods and others [2,3]. There are several impact of Mount Sinabung Eruption, 16 people died, thousands of residences in the radius of 3-5 km and several villages outside the 5 km radius (31.379 peole/9915 families) were displaced, damage and losses were estimated at 1.80 trillion rupiah [4]. In restoring the livelihoods of people affected by disasters the government implemented rehabilitation and reconstruction carried out in several stages. In the first phase the government relocated 370 families to the Siosar area. The government has provided housing assistance and/or farming business to the 370 families and built an infrastructure such as clean water, electricity and communal septic tanks, places for praying, health centers, schools (elementary schools and preschool/PAUD), villages government offices, roads and provide transportation facilities from the relocation area to the district capital.
Siosar relocation area is administratively located in the District of Merk, Karo Regency, which is 12 kilometers south of Kabanjahe City, the Capital of Karo Regency. Based on land status, Siosar relocation area is a production forest has been converted into settlements and agriculture for community and the land must be be returned to the government within 20 years [5,6]. The relocation area is in the upstream area of two important and potential watersheds (daerah aliran sungai/DAS) in North Sumatra and Aceh, namely the Wampu and Singkil Watersheds and is also classified as a watershed that must be restored [5,6]. Relocation area has a dominant topography of sloping to wavy (slope of 8-15%) as much as 66.19% of the total relocation area, flat to sloping (0.8% slope) as much as 33.99 of the land area and the remaining 0.81 % with hilly topography with a slope of 15-25% [5,6].
Based on the characteristics of the land in the relocation area, it is important to conduct a study to find out the daily activities of the community whether it is in line or in harmony with local environmental conditions, because the practices and ways of interacting with the environment will affect the sustainability of a community's life.
Every area has their own the sustainability level of the community, so every development that will occur also requires detailed level of information, continuity, weakness, as well as the strength that each area has [7]. In relation to the achievement of the target sustainable development goals (SDG's) No. 15, namely protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.
The purpose of this research is to analyze the sustainability level of the community resettlement from the Mount Sinabung eruption. To analyze the level of sustainability, use a tool called Community Sustainability Assessment/CSA developed by the Global Ecovillage Network/GEN [8,9]. GEN is a global association of people dedicated to sustainable living. GEN develops a concept of how to audit sustainability to provide a basis for assessing an existing individuals, rural areas and communities to compare their current status with the ideal goals of ecological, social and spiritual sustainability [8,9]. The results of this study can provide an input to a relevant stakeholders and the public about the development of community sustainability programs in the Siosar.

Material and method
The research data collection was done by collecting secondary data, interviews and questionnaire surveys using CSA questionnaires with a sample of 37 head of families representing the predetermined community. Assessment of the level of community sustainability is analyzed by examining the comformity with the ecovillage concept and condition of community sustainability from three aspects, namely ecological, social and spiritual aspects. Each aspect has seven benchmarks to determine the level of sustainability. The values of each parameter are summed according to the CSA questionnaire criteria. After all values are obtained, the results of each aspect are added. From the total value obtained from the sum of values for each aspect parameter, the level of sustainability of the community in the Siosar relocation area will be known.

Result and discussion
Based on the results of the analysis of the data obtained from the kuesinone CSA (Table 1  and Table 2), the achievement of the total value of each aspect is 523 which means showing a good start towards sustainability. However, when viewed from each aspect, the ecological aspect with a low value is 139 when compared to the other two aspects and shows the need for action in achieving sustainability. The social aspect obtained 208 values and spiritual aspects obtained 176 values, which shows that the people in the Siosar relocation area showed a good start towards sustainability.

The level of community sustainability on ecological aspect
The results of data analysis using the CSA questionnaire for ecological aspects reached 139 (Table.1 and Table.2) which indicates the need for action to achieve sustainability. From the results of the assessment, it was acknowledged that of the seven parameters, three parameters which are: parameter water (source, quality and usage pattern); physical infrastructur, buildings and transportation; and energy sources and uses which showed a good start towards sustainability. The other four parameters are still low and need action to achieve sustainability is the parameter of sense of place, food availability production and distribution, consumption patterns and solid waste management, and waste water dan water pollution management The value of sense of place parameter is still low due to the level of community activity in efforts to conserve or manage biological resources to ensure human survival in the present and future and the conservation of soil and water has not been carried out by the community. At the research location food availability production and distribution indicate the need for action to achieve sustainability because: (1) foodstuffs are still imported from outside the region, especially for rice and side dishes; (2) The use of chemicals in food production is still high; (3) The farmers still depend on hybrid seeds. At the research location consumption patterns and solid waste management show the need to take an action to achieve sustainability, because: (1) the majority of people do not know the concept of waste and recycling management and are still reluctant to sort out household waste (2) the building of Integrated Waste Management / TPST until now it has not been used because it has not been handed over administratively. At the research location, the parameters of waste water dan water pollution management showed the lowest value, because there was no community effort in managing household wastewater either from human waste or waste from the kitchen and bathroom.

The level of community sustainability on social aspect
The results of achieving the value of data analysis on the social aspects reached 208 (Table.1 and Table.2) which means that the people in the Siosar relocation area in the social aspect showed a good start towards sustainability. The assessment results show four parameters, which are: openness trust, security, shared space; communication ( the flow of ideas and information); social sustainability; health care showing a good start towards sustainability. While the value of the other three parameters, which are: networking outreach and services; education; sustainability economic (healthy local economic) shows the need for action to achieve sustainability. Assessment of networking outreach and services parameters at the research location indicates the need for action to achieve the sustainability because community members provide services only for inside the community not outside the community. At the research location it is also rare to see opportunities to collaborate with organizations outside the community, but the relationship is limited to training that ends and is not sustainable (there is a time limit). Educational parameters at the research location indicate the need for an action towards sustainability because the availability of educational facilities for junior high school and senior high school levels are none. In the parameters of sustainability economic (healthy local economic) shows the need for action to achieve sustainability because community economic activities have not been able to build sustainable local economic power. Most residents depend on the agricultural sector, while the 0.5 hectare agricultural land, according to Siosar residents, cannot be relied on especially because the land is infertile compared to the residents' land in the residence before being relocated. Cooperatives at the research location to support the economic activities of the residents in the three villages have not been running properly, the cooperative is only an empty building that has not been used by the residents. This local market has not functioned optimally, only active on Sundays, and those who make transactions are visitors who are on vacation at Siosar. The access to capital assistance at the research location is still small.

The level of community sustainability on spiritual aspect
The results of the achievement of the value of data analysis on the spiritual aspect reached 176 (Table.1 and Table.2) which means that the people in the Siosar relocation area, in the spiritual aspect, showed a good start towards sustainability. The results of the assessment show that three parameters which are: spiritual sustainability; community glue; a new holographic, circulation world view showing a good start towards sustainability and four parameter with low values that need action to achieve sustainability. While the value of the other three parameters, which are: cultural sustainability; art and leisure; community resilience; peace and global consciousness shows the need for action to achieve sustainability. The cultural sustainability parameter at the research location shows the need for action to achieve sustainability because cultural exchange program are none, community efforts to preserve cultural heritage cultural heritage (values, handicraft, oral tradition/stories, ritual tradition) are still minimal. Art and leisure parameters at the research location showed low scores because: (1) In the research location there were also no art groups active in carrying out artistic activities; (2) Arts and cultural performances are also rare or not routinely held in the research location; (3) The majority of people in the research sites also do not engage in activities of a fun nature such as sports and recreation, all of this are because the residents are busy farming crops from the morning until the afternoon. Free time is only available at night which is used by residents to gather and socialize among residents in the stalls in three villages; (4) Opportunities for the community members to develop their talent are limited. The community resilience parameter shows the need for action to achieve sustainability because the community has not been able to change existing conditions into opportunities to develop themselves. The results of the assessment on the parameters of peace and global consciousness show the need for action to achieve sustainability because lack of knowledge about global environmental conditions and the need for contributions by every community member to maintain environmental sustainability.
From the results of the assessment, it is important to improve the resiliency of communities to achieve sustainability through: (1) providing knowledge and practical education regarding sustainability environment because increasing education of the society will affect the level of community welfare and can prevent and reduce environmental damage; (2) increasing local economic, educational facilities, community health, art and cultural heritage.