Hand- Gesture Detection… Hand-Gesture Detection Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

Sign language is a non-verbal language that Deaf persons exclusively count on to connect with their social environment.The problem that occurs in two-way communication using sign language is a misunderstanding when learning new terms that need to be taught to deaf and mute people. To minimize these misunderstandings, a system is needed that can assist in correcting hand gestures so that there is no misinterpretation in teaching new terms. Several optimality properties of PCA have been identified namely: variance of extracted features is maximized; the extracted features are uncorrelated; finds best linear approximation in the mean-square sense and maximizes information contained in the extracted feature. The classification uses the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. From the results of experiments with different image size variables, the largest accuracy was obtained with an image size of 449x449 of 76.20%. While the lowest accuracy of 52.38% is obtained through scenarios with image sizes of 57x57 and 45x45. Therefore, differences in the use of image sizes have an influence on the accuracy of hand signal prediction. The smaller the size given, the smaller the accuracy obtained. This is indicated by the decreasing accuracy value when given a smaller size in the four scenarios that have been studied.

INTRODUCTION
Public attention to people who are deaf and speech impaired is still very minimal. It is difficult to understand the communication that occurs between normal people and people who are deaf and speech impaired. Deaf and speech impaired people use sign language to stay in touch with others. The use of sign language can be one solution for those who have speech or hearing deficiencies to remain able to interact with the general public [1].
According to E.Widodo, one of the translators and sign language teachers at INASLI (Indonesian Sign Language Interpreters), there are many potential misunderstandings that occur when learning sign language. In addition to adapting to the conditions of people with disabilities, language also develops and continues to emerge new terms not found in sign language dictionaries. In addition, there are also foreign terms such as a person's individual name, foreign language terms, and scientific terms that require more attention in spelling. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to teachers in showing the hand signals shown to people who are deaf and mute.
In addition to minimizing misunderstandings for the deaf and mute in certain terms, assistance in correcting this needs to be used for teachers so that there is no misinterpretation in teaching new terms to deaf and mute people which results in long errors in the future [2].

THEORETICAL REVIEW a. Deaf
Deafness is a general term that denotes hearing difficulties, which include all hearing difficulties from mild to severe, classified into deaf and hard of hearing sections [3].

b. Sign language
According to Reynolds and Mann (1983:1435) sign language is a general term that refers to any gestural/visual language that uses specific forms and movements of the fingers, hands, and arms, as well as eye, face, head, and body movements. There are several standards of sign language used in communicating in several countries where the deaf have used them to communicate among themselves quickly, efficiently, and visually without the use of paper and pencil.
With the presence of sign language, the deaf and mute can communicate more broadly with predetermined standards. Normal people can also communicate more freely with the deaf and mute by using this sign language.

c. American Sign Language (ASL)
ASL is a communication model for humans who are deaf and speech impaired, and this communication model is included in learning for students with special needs such as the deaf whose method is known as the komtal method. The first character to use the term komtal (total communication) was Roy Holcomb. This character uses this term to describe the flexibility in communicating as applied in a school in California, United States. Then in 1968 D. Denton described this komtal method with the meaning of a complete spectrum of language ways, children's gestures, sign language, reading speech, finger spelling, and reading and writing, and there is sound (Sulastri, 2013:5).

d. Computer vision
Computer vision is a combination of two processes, namely image processing and pattern recognition [4]. Image processing (Image Processing) is a field related to image transformation. This process has the aim of getting better image quality [5]. Pattern Recognition is a branch of science that studies data patterns both numerical and symbolic so that one or more conclusions can be drawn. The input of the pattern recognition program is an image, while the output is a description of the object [6].
Principal component analysis is a technique of reducing multivariant data (a lot of data) to convert an initial or original data matrix into a set of linear combinations that are fewer but absorb most of the variance from the initial data [7].

e. General PCA steps
There are some general steps to implementing PCA so that you get the desired input. In Figure 2, it has been explained how the general steps of PCA so as to get the transformed data in the form of m x k [8].

f. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference
System (ANFIS). Neuro-fuzzy is a combination of two systems, namely fuzzy logic systems and artificial neural networks. The neuro-fuzzy system is based on a fuzzy inference system that is trained using a learning algorithm derived from artificial neural network system. Thus, the neurofuzzy system has all the advantages possessed by the fuzzy inference system and the artificial neural network system [9]. From its ability to learn, the neuro-fuzzy system is often referred to as the Adaptive Neuo-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). One form of the structure of ANFIS that applies the Takaagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy inference system model is depicted in Figure 3 below.

g. Simulation method
Simulation is the process required for the operationalization of the model, or the handling of the model to imitate the behavior of the real system. This method includes various activities such as the use of flow diagrams and computer logic, as well as writing computer code and applying that code to a computer to use input and produce the desired output. In practice, modeling and simulation are very closely related processes, and some authors have defined simulations that include modeling [10].

Method of collecting data
The interview was conducted with resource persons with Mr. Edik Widodo who is a Sign Language Lecturer and Translator from INASLI (Indonesian Sign Language Interpreter). Mr. Edik Widodo is one of the founders of INASLI which has been established since 1999.

System development method
The development stage of this research system design using Simulation Method as described in this chapter previously, the stages were problem formulation, conceptual model, modelling, experiment, verification and validation, and Output Analysis.

The proposed method
The hand signal identification using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) feature extraction method which is implemented in the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) classification method.

III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The recommendation system generally consists of five steps system and procedures in Simulation Method. The development stage of this research system design using the Simulation method as described in chapter previously, the stages were problem formulation, conceptual model, modelling, experiment, verification and validation, and Output Analysis.

Problem formulation
Communication with people with disabilities has obstacles and difficulties due to their limited sense of hearing and speaking ability. Therefore, it is necessary to teach sign language as a communication tool for persons with disabilities with the general public [11].
In addition to the use of everyday language, people with disabilities certainly need to learn new terms outside of their everyday language. These new terms include a person's individual name, foreign language terms, and scientific terms [12].
When learning new terms that will be taught to deaf and speech-impaired people, mistakes often occur because of insignificant differences in movement, for example, hand signals for the letters M and N [13].  The error in learning this new term occurred due to several factors. These factors include a language that continues to develop, a sign language dictionary that is not updated, and the lack of clarity in the movements that teachers teach to deaf and speech impaired people who are also affected by distance.

Conceptual model
The system simulation design stage is based on the conceptual modeling designed at this stage. This model contains the steps taken in identifying sign language using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method as a feature extraction method and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as a classification method. These steps are illustrated in Figure   There are two groups of data that will be processed in order to obtain the value of the influential characteristics of each image. The first data group is the training data group that will be used to obtain standardization appropriate hand signals. The second data group is the test data group that will be used as a sample in testing using ANFIS. From this process will produce 5 PCA values that represent the characteristics of an image and stored in an excel file. This value will be displayed on the application, both in individual PCA retrieval and automatically. The PCA value from the result of feature extraction is depicted in Figure 6 below:

Verification and validation
At this stage, the suitability of the simulation program will be checked in applying the research In the test data group, a target of "TRUE" is given according to each letter in the five samples of test data and two data samples that have a target value of "FALSE". In the target value "FALSE", if this number is read by the system it will be considered an error.

Experimentation
In this study, the authors conducted an experiment by changing the size of the image used, both test data and training data. In this experiment, each use of different experimental variables will have different ANFIS rules as well.
a. Scenario 1 In this scenario, the PCA value data from the image size of 449x449 will be used. This scenario uses 42 images for training data and 42 images for test data. The ANFIS rules created are depicted in accordance with Figure 6. From the data that has been obtained, it is known that only 10 of the 42 tested data are incorrect, so in percentage form, the accuracy obtained from testing using the ANFIS rules that have been made in this scenario has a value of 76.20%. b. Scenario 2 In this scenario, the PCA value data from the image size of 281x281 will be used. This scenario uses 42 images for training data and 42 images for test data. The ANFIS rules created are depicted in accordance with Figure 7. From the data that has been obtained, it is known that 15 of the 42 data tested are incorrect, so in the form of a percentage, the accuracy obtained from testing using the rules.ANFIS that has been made in this scenario is 64.29%. c. Scenario 3 In this scenario, the PCA value data from the image size of 57x57 will be used. This scenario uses 42 images for training data and 42 images for test data. The ANFIS rules created are depicted according to Figure 8. From the data that has been obtained, it is known that 18 of the 42 data tested are incorrect, so in percentage form, the accuracy obtained from testing using the ANFIS rules that have been made in this scenario is 52.38%. d. Scenario 4 From the data that has been obtained, it is known that only 7 of the 18 data tested are correct, so in percentage form, the accuracy obtained from testing using the ANFIS rules that have been made in this scenario is very small at 52.38%.

Analysis output
The values that have been obtained through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method are then analyzed to determine the range of interval values for each letter.
In addition, the accuracy values that have been obtained in each scenario are also compared in this section. The comparison of these values will be a reference in determining the right size for the development of a hand signal simulation system.

Comparison of accuracy value
After conducting experiments with various sample sizes as variables, the results were obtained from the accuracy of each scenario. The results of the experiment are shown in table 1.  From table 1, it can be seen that the highest accuracy is in scenario 1, namely the use of the method using a size of 449x449 pixels of 76.20%. While the lowest accuracy, with a value of 52.38%, was obtained in scenarios 3 and 4 with sample sizes of 57x57 and 45x45 pixels. This is because each pixel in an image affects the retrieval of feature values in the image. In taking the image value using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method, the larger the size of the processed image, the greater the resulting PCA value.

IV. CONCLUSIONS
Based on the results of taking the value of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the testing and training process using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System method, the following conclusions were obtained. 1. Feature extraction using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) classification method can be implemented in hand signal detection simulations by pre-processing first, namely image crop, segmentation, and grayscale. 2. From the results of experiments with different image size variables, the largest accuracy was obtained with an image size of 449x449 of 76.20%. While the lowest accuracy is 52.38% with image sizes of 57x57 and 45x45. Therefore, differences in the use of image sizes have an influence on the accuracy of hand signal prediction.
3. The smaller the size given, the smaller the accuracy obtained. This is indicated by the decreasing accuracy value when given a smaller size in the four scenarios that have been studied.


Epistemic Parity: Reproducibility as an Evaluation Metric for Differential Privacy

Differential privacy mechanisms are increasingly used to enable public release of sensitive datasets, relying on strong theoretical guarantees for privacy coupled with empirical evidence of utility. Utility is typically measured as the error on representative proxy tasks, such as descriptive statistics, multivariate correlations, or classification accuracy. In this paper, we propose an alternative evaluation methodology for measuring the utility of differentially private synthetic data in scientific research, a measure we term"epistemic parity."Our methodology consists of reproducing empirical conclusions of peer-reviewed papers that use publicly available datasets, and comparing these conclusions to those based on differentially private versions of the datasets. We instantiate our methodology over a benchmark of recent peer-reviewed papers that analyze public datasets in the ICPSR social science repository. We reproduce visualizations (qualitative results) and statistical measures (quantitative results) from each paper. We then generate differentially private synthetic datasets using state-of-the-art mechanisms and assess whether the conclusions stated in the paper hold. We find that, across reasonable epsilon values, epistemic parity only partially holds for each synthesizer we evaluated. Therefore, we advocate for both improving existing synthesizers and creating new data release mechanisms that offer strong guarantees for epistemic parity while achieving risk-aware, best effort protection from privacy attacks.

Introduction
Differential privacy (DP) has been studied intensely for over a decade, and has recently enjoyed uptake in the private and public sector. In situations where the analysis is known, one can design specialized mechanisms with high utility (McKenna, Miklau, and Sheldon 2021;McKenna et al. 2022). But an active research area is to design DP mechanisms that model the entire data distribution, then sample these noisy models to generate synthetic datasets. The goal is to support a broader variety of downstream, unanticipated applications. However, this goal is fundamentally unachievable due to the Fundamental Law of Information Recovery (Dinur and Nissim 2003): overly accurate estimates of too many statistics are blatantly non-private. Therefore, the utility of DP synthetic data generation techniques (henceforth, synthesizers) is evaluated empirically using proxy tasks on common public datasets. These tasks include descriptive statistics and queries involving one or two variables (Hill 2015;Hay et al. 2016;Takagi et al. 2021;Tao et al. 2021), classification accuracy (Ding et al. 2020;Takagi et al. 2021;Zhang et al. 2017), and information theoretic measures (Zhang et al. 2017). These proxy tasks are informed by real tasks, but the implicit claim of generalization is rarely explored.
With empirical studies having limited perceived relevance, it is perhaps unsurprising that DP is not universally embraced in the social sciences. The US Census Bureau adopted DP for disclosure avoidance in the 2020 census, interpreting federal law (the Census Act, 13 U.S.C. § 214, and the Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002) as a mandate to use advanced methods to protect against computational reconstruction attacks unforeseen when the laws were passed. But there has been resistance among some in the research community, who contend that DP noise destroys accurate demographic distributions (Ruggles et al. 2019) and can exacerbate underrepresentation of minorities (Kenny et al. 2021;Ganev, Oprisanu, and De Cristofaro 2021). Besides confounding research, there are potential consequences for policy: Block grants are allocated based on minority populations as measured by the census data; underrepresentation can lead to underfunding integral services including Medicaid, Head Start, SNAP, Section 8 Housing vouchers, Pell Grants, and more (Christ, Radway, and Bellovin 2022).
Despite these challenges, DP still offers stronger guarantees of disclosure protection and similar utility to alternative proposals (e.g., swapping (Christ, Radway, and Bellovin 2022)). The DP promise, if used correctly, ensures that any inferences conducted on data do not reveal whether a single individual's information (including, for example, their gender or race) was included in the data for analysis (Dwork et al. 2006). Thus, DP can both prevent leakage of an individual's data and allow their sensitive and other attributes to be used during model training (Jagielski et al. 2019).
Challenges. A practical method of operationalizing DP is by learning a DP model of a dataset, then sampling that model to generate synthetic data (Dwork et al. 2009;Hardt, Ligett, and McSherry 2010;Torkzadehmahani, Kairouz, and Paten 2020;Rosenblatt et al. 2020;Vietri et al. 2020;McKenna, Miklau, and Sheldon 2021). The goal is to de-velop general purpose data synthesizers that perform well across a number of metrics, with both high statistical utility (preservation of statistics involving a single feature) as well as high predictive utility (preservation of the joint probability distribution needed to make predictions). However, this goal has proven elusive due to inherent features of DP: If the privacy budget is "spent" uniformly across features, we can preserve statistical utility at the expense of conditional probabilities and marginals needed for accurate prediction. Further, utility loss may be non-uniform across subsets of a dataset, in some cases exacerbating inequity and leading to underrepresentation (Bagdasaryan, Poursaeed, and Shmatikov 2019;Kenny et al. 2021) or to error rate disparities (Rosenblatt, Allen, and Stoyanovich 2022).
Methodology. We propose an evaluation strategy for synthesizers that emphasizes epistemic parity: the conclusions one draws on the original dataset are expected to hold on the noise-added dataset. We identify conclusions in the text, extract relevant findings supporting those conclusions, implement the corresponding statistical tests using public data, generate a synthetic dataset using state-of-the art DP synthesizers, re-apply the implemented tests over the synthetic data, and then determine if the conclusions still hold.
We instantiate our methodology over a benchmark of peer-reviewed sociology papers that are based on public data from the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) repository. We model quantitative results as an inequality between two numbers, e.g., Those using marijuana first (vs. alcohol or cigarettes first) were more likely to be Black, American Indian/Alaskan Native, multiracial, or Hispanic than White or Asian. (Fairman, Furr-Holden, and Johnson 2019). In addition to quantitative results, we consider qualitative results: a subjective assessment of whether key visualizations in the paper expose the same relationships when recreated over synthesized data. Following Errington et al. (2021), and as is common in the reproducibility literature, our aim was not to reproduce every finding in every paper; rather it was to identify and reproduce a selection of key findings from each paper.
For generality, interpretability and simplicity, we consider whether a conclusion holds over synthetic data to be true if the the two quantities are in the same relative order, and do not attempt to measure the change in effect size or the statistical significance of the difference between the original and synthetic result.
Benchmark and results. ICPSR is an NSF-funded repository for social science data holding over 100,000 publications associated with 17,312 studies. A study typically involves hundreds of variables and supports dozens of papers. Each paper can be considered to be deriving its own dataset (selected variables and selected rows) from the source data of the study. We apply DP methods to synthesize data for these paper-specific, study-derived datasets.
ICPSR studies are publicly available by policy, which enables us to instantiate the epistemic parity methodology and develop a benchmark. Notably, there is increasing demand from the ICPSR leadership and community to support keeping sensitive data private, while generating DP synthetic subsets to support reproducibility. Our methodology can be used to respond to this demand.
Paper selection. The benchmark we define consists of three datasets and six recent peer-reviewed papers selected for impact, accessibility of the topic to non-experts, recency, and several other criteria. We extracted findings and attempted to reproduce them, following the "same data, different code, different team" approach to reproducibility, encountering challenges commonly reported in that literature including undocumented data versioning, unspecific or incomplete methodologies, and irreconcilable differences between our reproduction and what the authors report. Each paper received, at a minimum, attention from two researchers with advanced degrees in either computer science, statistics, or both, and at least thirty hours of work. We include a complete list of papers that we attempted to reproduce, and the issues we encountered during reproduction, in supplementary materials.
Summary of results. We find that, across reasonable epsilon values, epistemic parity only partially holds for each paper in our benchmark, for each synthesizer we evaluated, and that no single synthesizer dominates the others in terms of performance on our metric. Our results are shown in Figure 1, and will be discussed further in Section 5.
Roadmap and Contributions. We present related work on reproducibility, DP synthesis and evaluation of DP in Section 2, and then go on to present our contributions.
• We propose the epistemic parity evaluation methodology, based on reproducing qualitative and quantitative empirical findings in peer-reviewed papers over DP synthetic datasets, in Section 3. • We instantiate the epistemic parity methodology for a benchmark of peer-reviewed papers in sociology, creating a reusable benchmark for evaluating synthesizers, as discussed in Section 4. • We present experimental results on our benchmark, using three state-of-the-art DP synthesizers, in Section 5.
We conclude with a discussion of the results, motivating a new class of privacy techniques that favor strong epistemic parity and de-emphasize privacy risk, in Section 6.
2 Related Work DP synthesis and evaluation. In our evaluation, we considered three state-of-the-art private data release methods: MST, PATECTGAN, and PrivBayes. We acknowledge that many other methods exist for generating DP data (Dwork et al. 2009;Hardt, Ligett, and McSherry 2010;Torkzadehmahani, Kairouz, and Paten 2020;Vietri et al. 2020). We chose these three methods according to recent work by Tao et al. (2021), which finds that of the marginal based synthetic data methods, MST is the highest performing, of the Bayes net based methods, PrivBayes is the highest Figure 1: Here we isolated finding statements across each of the papers we privatized (here, = e) according to the taxonomy described in Section 3.1. The scale-0 (red) to 5 (blue)-represents the number of iterations where each finding (x-axis, discrete) was reproduced using a new run of the private data.
performing, and of the GAN based methods, PATECTGAN is the highest performing (all on tabular data).
MST relies on the Private-PGM graphical model to construct a maximum spanning tree among attributes in the data feature space, where edges are weighted by mutual information (McKenna et al. 2018). By measuring 1-, 2-and some 3-way marginals, MST is able to create a high-fidelity low-dimensional approximation of the joint distribution between all attributes, leading to impressive statistical utility on metrics like mean, standard deviation, and bivariate correlations. PATECTGAN, on the other hand, relies on a conditional generative adversarial network tuned to tabular data, where the discriminator has privacy constraints (Xu et al. 2019). The high up-front cost of initializing and updating the weights in a full discriminator network means that PATECT-GAN is limited in low dimensional settings, but shows particular promise when the data is higher-dimensional. Finally, PrivBayes derives a bayesian model and adds noise to all k-way correlations to ensure differential privacy. PrivBayes has demonstrated efficacy in a number of settings, but is computationally inefficient for high-dimensional data. Tao et al. (2021) evaluated several DP synthesizers' ability to preserve 1-and 2-variable distributions. Jayaraman and Evans (2019) studied privacy-utility tradeoffs for ML tasks and found that commonly-used values and implementations in practice may be ineffective: either unacceptable privacy leakage or unacceptable utility tends to occur. Hay et al. (2016) used 1-and 2-dimensional range queries over 27 public datasets to study the influence of dataset scale and shape that had led to inconsistent results in the previous literature. While the datasets are diverse in relevant properties, the tasks are limited, and the link to conclusions drawn is unexplored. Hill (2015) studied the utility of DP on one longitudinal behavioral science dataset involving a sexuality survey motivated by real world attacks based on disclosing pregnancy, finding that theoretical guarantees of DP were generally supported, but that high-dimensional data was a challenge for utility. In this work, we aim to facilitate and standardize these kinds of applied studies.
Reproducibility. Numerous reproducibility studies have been attempted in various fields, typically reporting remarkably low rates of success, leading to calls for significant changes to policy and incentive structures underlying scientific funding and publishing National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and others (2019) papers supplied open data, 0% of protocols were completely described, 67% of experiments required modifications to complete, and replication effect sizes were 85% smaller than in the original findings. A survey by Baker (2016) found that 52% of respondents agreed that reproducibility represents a 'crisis' for science.
The terms reproducibility and replicability are used inconsistently across and even within fields (Barba 2018). We use reproducibility to mean same data, different code, different team (Barba 2018). We use replicability to mean acquiring new data in a new experiment to determine whether the same conclusions hold. Our methodology amounts to first reproducing conclusions found in peer-reviewed papers, and then replicating these same conclusions on DP synthetic data. While our focus is neither to reproduce nor to replicate the original study, our framework supports reproducibility analysis as an intermediate step, and our insights regarding the difficulty (and, often, the impossibility) of reproduction are consistent with prior findings.

Evaluating Epistemic Parity
We now present the methodology for measuring the epistemic parity of DP synthetic data in scientific research: the degree to which conclusions hold when re-evaluated under DP. Our methodology is designed to be applied one peerreviewed paper at a time, collating results from multiple papers into a diverse, representative, and reusable benchmark for use by DP researchers. We assume public access to the data on which the paper's results were computed; we are not intending to protect the privacy of subjects involved in the study. This methodology is intended to be applied by a reader of the paper, as opposed to the authors, though expertise in the domain is of course an advantage.
Given a paper, we start by identifying natural language claims made by the authors throughout the paper, focusing primarily on the abstract and conclusion. Although expertise in the domain is an advantage in this exercise, we contend that the identification of claims should be possible by nonexperts, as the goal of the paper is to communicate findings to a broad audience. For each claim, we identify a quantitative (or qualitative ) evidence that supports the claim, recording the variables involved and methods used. While in principle this step should always be possible, it can in practice be difficult or impossible Baker (2016); National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and others (2019), and may involve guesswork when the computational details are incomplete. We then re-implement the analysis to (attempt to) reproduce the salient findings and conclusions in the paper over the original, public dataset, as discussed in Section 3.1. If the reproduction was successful, we use DP methods to generate synthetic datasets, using different methods and different random seeds, with the same number of records as the original data, and attempt to once again reproduce the findings over these generated datasets. Finally, we contrast the findings based on original and DP data.
Our main metric is the proportion of synthesized datasets for each method for which the finding holds, which we refer to as epistemic parity. Our methodology is implemented in an open-source framework, see supplementary materials or our repository https://github.com/DataResponsibly/SynRD.

Reproducing Experimental Studies
We adapt three concepts of reproducibility-values, findings, and conclusions-from Cohen et al Cohen et al. (2018) into a practical taxonomy for reproducing a statistical analysis in a peer-reviewed publication, and implement a class structure that allows us to conduct concrete experiments around this taxonomy (summarized in Figure 2).
The atomic element in reproducibility is a finding, defined by Cohen as "a relationship between the values for some reported figure of merit with respect to two or more dependent variables." For the purposes of our study, a finding consists of a natural language statement (i.e., a claim) reported in a publication, along with evidence provided by one or more quantitative or qualitative sub-statements about the analysis. Evidence for a finding consists of a comparison between two or more values that can be evaluated as a Boolean condition. A value may be a scalar measurement (i.e., 34.1%), an aggregated or computed result (i.e., an odds ratio of 1.2), or even an implicit threshold expressed in natural language (e.g., "a low rate" or "a strong correlation"). In these cases, we instantiate the language as a quantitative threshold, applying conventions from the literature when they exist. For example, a common convention is that Pearson's correlation is considered "strong" when the r value is larger than 0.7.
A special case of a finding is a qualitative visual finding that often appears in the form of a figure, table or diagram. A figure encodes a multitude of potential findings; we do not (necessarily) consider each of these sub-findings on their own in our analysis, but rather treat them as a single visual finding: we attempt to reproduce the figure itself, and subjectively evaluate its similarity to the original. Consider Figure 3, where the top sub-figure shows a percentage breakdown of drug use across demographic groups from Fairman, Furr-Holden, and Johnson (2019), and the bottom sub-figure shows the same breakdown replicated by us on DP synthetic data generated by MST at = e.
Finally, following Cohen Cohen et al. (2018), a conclusion is defined as "a broad induction that is made based on the results of the reported research." A conclusion must be explicitly stated in a paper, and comprises one or several findings. We will discuss how reproduced findings support reproduced conclusions in Section 6.

Generating DP Synthetic Data
Each of the papers that we reproduced using DP synthetic data derived findings from a subset of the full study's data. For example, HSLS:09 consists of over 7000 columns, but Jeong et al used only a subset of 57 Jeong et al. (2021). We synthesize the subset of data relevant for the reproduced findings and conclusions, as discussed in Section 3.1.
The DP methods for private data release are executed for the range of values ∈ {e −1 , e 0 , e 1 , e 2 }, which represents a small to medium privacy regimen (Bowen and Liu 2020). Each private data mechanism is run five times to produce, at each value, five sampled datasets using the same sam-  (2019), describing a percentage breakdown of drug use across demographic groups (top) and our qualitative reproduction under DP, using MST at = e. Agreement is subjectively high, though imperfect.
ple size but different random seeds. Each private data release method involves different hyperparameters and varying levels of tunability, but we use author-recommended settings to avoid biasing results towards our own expertise. We then re-compute the results for each sample.
If all findings are reproduced regardless of epsilon or random seed, we say that the DP mechanism as achieved epistemic parity. We measure the degree of epistemic parity as the proportion of iterations for which the finding holds. The goal is to overlook small variations in the exact value in favor of maintaining the relative relationships of the computed statistics for interpretability and practical utility.

Benchmark Construction
We used a standardized approach for study and paper selection. Each study, which has an associated dataset, was selected for broad impact (at least 100 papers). For each selected study, we limited our publication search to the past five years, to ensure a focus on modern methods of analysis. Within that five year window, there might still be 10s or 100s of data related publications. We sought papers that meet all of the following criteria: (1) Are publicly available (so that we could report on their results without violating any permissions); (2) Use a publicly available portion of the study dataset (so that we were not trying to replicate analyses conducted on private data using a public subsample); (3) Are published in peer-reviewed publications, with a preferences given to high-impact journals; (4) Are cited (for papers that are at least two years old); and (5) Are of a reasonable length (page count < 30). We describe selected studies and papers below, see Appendix A for details.

Selected Studies
We selected three prominent, federally funded studies.
HSLS:09: High School Longitudinal Study (Dalton, Ingels, and Fritch 2016), is a nationally representative, longitudinal study of U.S. 9th graders who were followed through their secondary and postsecondary years. We attempted to reproduce four papers that use HSLS:09, and were able to fully or partially reproduce three papers. As HSLS:09 has a single dataset representing the entire period of the study, we did not encounter versioning issues during reproduction.
AddHealth: National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent and Adult Health (Harris, Kathleen Mullan and Udry, J. Richard 2022), consists of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adolescents in grades 7 through 12 during the 1994-1995 school year. We attempted to reproduce four papers that use Add Health, and were able to fully or partially reproduce two. The public use data was severely limited in scope (a random subsample of less than 50% of the original), and we were forced to only consider papers that relied solely on the public use data.
NSDUH: National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2004-2014 (United States Department of Health and Human Services 2016), measures the prevalence and correlates of drug use in the U.S.. We attempted to reproduce four papers that use NSDUH, but we were able to reproduce only one, partially and with substantial effort. The main obstacle was that the study is broken down by year across a fifteen-year time frame and multiple versions of the study for each year have been released. Past years of the study are seemingly updated without a record of what the new version modifies. Thus, we had extreme difficulty finding the breakdown of data version for each year to attempt replication. Saw, Chang, and Chan (2018) use HSLS:09 to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal disparities in STEM career aspirations among high school students. Methods include singular and trivariate disparity analysis of quantities of interest, and analysis of disparities among students deemed "persisters" (who persist in their STEM interest from 9th to 11th grade) and "emergers" (who emerge with STEM interest in 11th grade, having no interest in 9th grade).

Selected Papers
This paper was reproducible, with effort. The authors provided an overview of data processing methodology, but failed to specify exact columns and clarify preprocessing procedures (e.g., creating "emerger" and "persister" student sets). However, we were able to reproduce each finding and agree with all conclusions.
Lee and Simpkins (2021) use HSLS:09 to identify factors that affect the performance of students on the 11th grade math exam. The authors examine "low teacher support" as an adverse factor, and self perceptions of math "ability" and "parental support" as protective factors. Factors are constructed by aggregating across relevant survey responses via a weighted average. Pearson correlation is computed across these variables and demographic information. Linear regression models are trained to predict math performance, with different interactions between variables. This paper was partially reproducible, with substantial effort. The authors did a reasonable job of detailing their aggregation techniques, and include a helpful table for survey questions in their appendix. They did not detail their regression techniques, although we tried the simplest weighted linear regression and it aligned well. We were unable to reproduce a finding that involves a covariance slope analysis figure from a complex R package. Jeong et al. (2021) use HSLS:09 to interrogate potential racial bias in classifiers that predict student performance on a standardized 9th grade math exam. The authors assign each student to one of two racial groups -White/Asian (privileged) or Black/Hispanic/Native American (disadvantaged). They trained random forest, SVC and logistic regression models to predict whether a student would receive a top-50% or a bottom-50% test score, and measured accuracy, FPR, FNR, and predicted base rate.
We found this paper to be reproducible, with effort. The authors did not specify how the data was preprocessed (e.g., how missing values were imputed) or how it was split into training and test. We were ultimately able to reproduce the results sufficiently to agree with the conclusions, but were unable to reproduce the values in the findings exactly.
Fruiht and Chan (2018) use Add Health to investigate the role of naturally occurring mentors in the educational outcomes of first-generation college students. The authors fit a statistical mediation model by Preacher and Hayes (2008) (PROCESS Model, variation 1) to test direct and interaction effects of parental educational attainment and mentorship on students' educational attainment.
This paper was partially reproducible, with substantial effort. Beyond the Add Health study, the authors reported on findings made though manual qualitative coding of free text responses regarding the nature of support provided by the mentor, but did not make the coding scheme publicly available, and so we were unable to reproduce findings reliant on the scheme. For other findings, lack of detail about preprocessing, such as how individuals with multiple races were categorized into racial groups, prevented a perfect replication of many of the values reported in the paper, although we were able to reproduce the observed trends and agree with the authors conclusions.
Iverson and Terry (2021) analyze the effect of having played high school football on depressive and suicidal tendencies in men later in life using the first wave  and the most recent wave (2016-2018) of Add Health. The authors conduct a bivariate analysis across two groups of men (those who did or did not play football in high school), and report on simple percent comparisons, statistical significance and odds ratios.
This paper was easy to reproduce. The authors provided precise guidance on which questions (columns) they used from the data and, because their techniques were fundamentally simple, we were able to exactly match nearly all values reported in the paper, reproducing all findings.
Fairman, Furr-Holden, and Johnson (2019) use NS-DUH to investigate predictors and potential consequences of initiating the use of marijuana before other types of substance (e.g., cigarettes and alcohol) for U.S. youth. The pri-mary methods of analysis were counts and percentage comparisons by group, and computing adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) and adjusted odds ratio (aOR).
This paper was partially reproducible, with substantial effort. The main obstacle to reproducibility is the inappropriate versioning of the data by NSDUH, as discussed in Section 4.1. Additionally, the paper inadequately describes their calculations of aRRR and aOR were calculated, making them difficult to replicate. Ultimately, while we were unable to reproduce exact reported values, we did reproduce general trends and agree with most conclusions drawn in the paper.

Results
Our benchmark consists of six papers, each evaluated on three methods for four values of , for a total of 12 mechanisms for each paper, each repeated with 5 random seeds.
Quantitative findings. The results appear in Figure 1. We show a grid of three methods (with = e) for up to 16 individual findings per paper, and for a total of 72 distinct quantitative findings. The color indicates the number of random seeds for which a finding held, from 0 (red) to 5 (blue).
Both MST and PrivBayes had papers for which they were clearly the strongest performing: (Fairman, Furr-Holden, and Johnson 2019) for MST; (Lee and Simpkins 2021) and (Saw, Chang, and Chan 2018) for PrivBayes. PATE-CTGAN was not the strongest performing for any paper, which supports the literature describing current limitations of GAN-based approaches for DP synthesis (Tao et al. 2021). PrivBayes was the slowest method to run, and its inability to run quickly on high-dimensional data (a wellunderstood limitation of the method) prevented us from obtaining results for (Jeong et al. 2021), with 57 variables, many of them non-binary.
Findings that only one synthesizer was able to reproduce consistently provide insight into the comparative strengths of the methods. For example, Finding #7 of Lee and Simpkins (2021) (Text: As expected, perceived low teacher support was linked to lower achievement when adolescents were low on both protective factors, namely low ability selfconcepts and low parental support (B= -2.23, p = .003)) was fully reproduced by PrivBayes for each iteration, and never reproduced by the other synthesizers. The only finding in Fairman, Furr-Holden, and Johnson (2019) that MST failed to reproduce, Finding #6 (Text: From 2004 to 2014, the proportion who had initiated marijuana before other substances increased from 4.4% to 8.0%), was reproduced by PrivBayes in 4 out of 5 iterations. MST focuses on preserving broad summary statistics associated with low-order marginals, while PrivBayes preserves conditional probability chains, which may explain some of these distinctions.
No synthesizer succeeded across all papers, and, remarkably, some findings were never reproduced by any of the three synthesizers. For example, Findings #3 and #4 in Jeong et al. (2021), which centered on aggregated comparisons between demographic groups on ML-model predictive performance, were not reproduced successfully by any synthesizer. (Recall that PrivBayes was unable to run on this paper due to high dimensionality of the data.) That some findings are easier to reproduce than others is unsurprising. Though each synthesizer relies on a fundamentally different approach to replicating the joint distribution across all of the data, they each struggle with high dimensional data. For general purpose synthetic data, MST and PrivBayes prioritize lower dimensional relationships among variables, and thus it is unsurprising that simple mean comparison findings, and even some bivariate correlations, are easily preserved by these methods. However, findings like those in Jeong et al. (2021), where higher-dimensional predictive performance is reported on, are difficult to replicate for the DP synthesizers. Overall, however, we were surprised at the high number of findings across all our papers (even those that we were unable to replicate) relying only on 1-or 2-dimensional comparisons: The low-dimensionality suggests that earlier empirical studies (including Tao et al. (2021) and Hay et al. (2016)) may be suitable as proxy tasks. Targeted improvements to the synthesizers may allow us to simultaneously support high utility for individual findings and their composition into broad conclusions.
Synthesizer performance across values. Figure 4 compares synthesizer performance across reasonable values: the y-axis shows aggregated epistemic parity as the percentage of reproduced findings, over all five iterations of each synthesizer. We see that synthesizer performance improves somewhat for higher values, as expected. Furthermore, at higher values, we see near-perfect epistemic parity for both MST and PrivBayes for two of the papers. We also observe that PATECTGAN shows weaker performance for all but one paper, where no method performs well. The trends are consistent with the observations in Figure 1, and support the choice of = e as a reasonable privacy budget.
Visual findings. Figure 3 highlights a visual finding from Fairman, Furr-Holden, and Johnson (2019), discussed in Section 3.1. The results are subjectively similar, though a number of relationships may change at the individual level. Just as authors include visual findings in their papers, we argue that a DP evaluation should include qualitative results as part of an argument for epistemic parity.

Conclusions and Discussion
In this paper, we proposed epistemic parity as methodology for measuring the utility of DP synthetic data in support of scientific research. We assembled a benchmark of six peer-reviewed papers that analyze one of three studies in the ICPSR social science repository. We then experimentally evaluated epistemic parity achieved by three state-of-the-art DP synthesizers over the papers in our benchmark. Overall, we found epistemic partiy to be a compelling method for evaluating DP synthesizers. Further, we found that, of the three DP synthesizers we evaluated, two performed best for some of the papers, but no single synthesizer outperformed all others on all papers. Finally, some findings were never reproduced by any of the synthesizers.
Despite facing well-known reproducibility challenges during benchmark construction, we are confident that our results will lead to generalizaeble insights. We are continuing to expand the benchmark with additional studies and Figure 4: Epistemic parity achieved by MST, PrivBayes, and PATECTGAN for each paper in our benchmark, as a function of the privacy parameter ∈ {e −1 , e 0 , e 1 , e 2 }. Epistemic parity, on the y-axis, ranges between 0 and 1, and represents the fraction of reproduced findings over 5 executions.
papers. We are also incoroporating additional synthesizers, to develop stronger insight into the performance trade-offs between classes of DP synthesizer methods in this setting.
Rebalancing Utility and Privacy. The reality is that DP is yet to see broad use across domains, both in the sciences and in support of decision-making. On the other hand, other techniques, including anonymization and aggregation, that offer no formal guarantees of privacy, are widely used and even encoded in law in many jurisdictions. Moreover, many settings have conditions that can be met to allow the release of data to authorized partners. In these cases, the party is trusted, and noise-added data plays no role.
A conservative way to look at DP is as a "first pass" debugging tool: strong privacy guarantees, unreliable for scientific study, yet useful for developing software and methodology. Once the process is developed, one can apply for direct access to the original data with a clearer intent and more detailed project plan -the software for experiments is already written. In our work, we aim to quantify the utility of DP synthetic data beyond the limited use case of debugging, to directly support scientific experimentation.
We also advocate for a counterbalance to DP: Where DP provides strong privacy guarantees and best-effort utility, we recommend the study of strong epistemic parity guarantees with best-effort privacy. After all, this approach is broadly used in practice currently, but in an unprincipled way. What would a formal epistemic parity guarantee look like?

A Benchmark Construction Details
We selected studies (datasets) based on their impact as measured by the number of associated publications (minimum of 100), the accessibility of the topic, and their relevance to privacy research via guidance from ICPSR leadership. For each selected study, we sought papers that (1) Are publicly available (so that we could report on their results without violating any permissions); (2) Use a publicly available portion of the study dataset (so that we were not trying to replicate analyses conducted on private data using a public subsample); (3) Are published in peer-reviewed publications, with a preferences given to high-impact journals; (4) Are cited (for papers that are at least two years old); and (5) Are of a reasonable length (page count < 30). We describe the selected studies in Section 4.1 and the selected papers in Section 4.2.
A.1 Selected Studies HSLS:09 The High School Longitudinal Study (Dalton, Ingels, and Fritch 2016), is a nationally representative, longitudinal study of U.S. 9th graders followed through their secondary and postsecondary years, with an emphasis on understanding students' trajectories from the beginning of high school into postsecondary education, the workforce, and beyond. We attempted to reproduce four papers that use HSLS:09, and were able to fully or partially reproduce three. As HSLS:09 has a single dataset representing the entire period of the study, we did not encounter versioning issues during reproduction.
AddHealth The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent and Adult Health (Harris, Kathleen Mullan and Udry, J. Richard 2022), is a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adolescents in grades 7 through 12 during the 1994-1995 school year. Add Health combines longitudinal survey data on respondents' social, economic, psychological, and physical well-being with contextual data on the family, neighborhood, community, school, friendships, peer groups, and romantic relationships. We attempted to reproduce four papers that use Add Health, and were able to fully or partially reproduce two. AddHealth did not suffer from data versioning issues, although the public use data was severely limited in scope (a random subsample of less than 50% of the original study participants), and so we were forced to only consider papers that relied solely on the public use data.
NSDUH The National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2004-2014 (United States Department of Health and Human Services 2016), measures the prevalence and correlates of drug use in the U.S., providing quarterly and annual estimates. Information is provided on the use of illicit drugs, alcohol, and tobacco among members of U.S. households aged 12 and older. Questions include usage of a variety of illegal drug categories, and non-medical use of prescription drugs. We attempted to reproduce four papers that use NSDUH, but we were able to reproduce only one paper, partially and with substantial effort. The main obstacle to reproducibility was that the study is broken down by year across a greater than fifteen year time frame, and that multiple versions of the study for each year have been released. Furthermore, past years/versions of the study are seemingly updated without record to what the new versions/data modifies. Thus, we had extreme difficulty finding the exact breakdown of data (which data version for each year, sometimes across 10 or more years) that the authors conducted their research on.
A.2 Selected Papers Saw, Chang, and Chan (2018) use HSLS:09 to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal disparities in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) career aspirations among high school students. They specifically focus on intersectional interactions between gender, race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, and assess the progression of "aspiration" (i.e., stated interest in pursuing a STEM-related career) from 9th to 11th grade of high school.
The main methods include singular and trivariate (across race, socioeconomic status and gender) disparity analysis of quantities of interest. The authors additionally focus on disparities among students deemed "persisters" (who persist in their STEM interest from 9th to 11th grade) and "emergers" (who emerge with STEM interest in 11th grade, having no interest in 9th grade). They also trained a basic linear regression model to assess how predictive demographic traits are of interest, but we do not report directly on these results, see table of coefficients in supplementary materials.
The authors conclude that girls from all ethnic/racial and socioeconomic backgrounds, and lower income Black or Hispanic boys, had substantially lower rates of interest, persistence and development of STEM aspirations. They support their conclusion with a set of findings that mainly catalogue examples of statistically significant gaps in their trivariate demographic analysis of disparities.
This paper was reproducible, with effort. The authors provided an overview of data processing methodology, but failed to specify exact columns of interest and clarify steps of some preprocessing procedures (e.g., creating "emerger" and "persister" sets of students). However, with effort, we were able to reproduce each of their findings and agree with all of their conclusions.
The paper was published in 2018 in Educational Researcher, a top education research journal. It has been cited 69 times as of August 2022, according to Google scholar.
Lee and Simpkins (2021) catalogue factors from HSLS:09 that affect the performance of students on an 11th grade math exam. The authors examine "low teacher support" as an adverse factor for math performance, and self perceptions of math "ability" and "parental support" as protective factors. They control for demographic variables and for historic math performance (i.e., performance on a similar exam in 9th grade) to isolate the effects.
In order to understand the protective and adverse factors concretely, they construct each of them by aggregating (via a simple weighted average) across relevant survey responses from the study (between 4 and 10 for each factor). This produces undimensional "low teacher support," "ability selfconcept" and "parental support" variables. The authors compute Pearson correlation across the newly constructed vari-ables and demographic information to get a coarse correlation between features. They then train five weighted linear regression models predicting math performance with different interactions between the three constructed variables to tease out further relationships.
The authors replicate a known finding that low teacher support leads to poor math performance. With this in hand, they demonstrate that "ability self-concept" and "parental support" can sometimes protect against the low teacher support, depending on the level of each variable and other demographic factors. Motivation, they conclude, is highly tied to these three important influences in an adolescents life, and high "ability self-concept" and "parental support" can make an adolescent significantly more resilient to poor teaching.
This paper was partially reproducible, with substantial effort. The authors did a reasonable job of detailing their aggregation techniques, but they failed to list exact variable names (although they did include a helpful table in their appendix). They also did not detail their regression technique, although it turned out to align well with the simplest weighted linear regression that we tried. One of the findings they report, and which we were unable to reporduce, involves a slope analysis figure that computes covariances using an complex R package.
The paper was published in 2021 in Journal of Adolescence, a reputable adolescent psychology research journal, with 2 citations as of August 2022, per Google scholar. Jeong et al. (2021) use HSLS:09 to interrogate potential racial bias in classifiers that predict student performance on a standardized 9th grade math exam. The authors point out that such predictions can inform a student's placement in an advanced math course. Thus, having disparate error rates-systematically under-estimating the potential of students from disadvantaged racial groups, while at the same time giving the benefit of the doubt to students from privileged groups-may exacerbate disparities in access to educational opportunities.
To carry out their analysis, the authors assign each student to one of two racial groups -White/Asian (privileged) or Black/Hispanic/Native American (disadvantaged). They trained random forest, SVC and logistic regression models to predict whether a student would receive a top-50% or a bottom-50% score on the test, and measured accuracy, false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), and predicted base rate (PBR), both overall and for each racial group.
The main findings were that FPR was almost twice as high for the privileged students, while the FNR was twice as high for the disadvantaged students. Interpreting these findings, the authors concluded that privileged students were given the benefit of the doubt, while the disadvantaged were systematically under-estimated by the classifiers.
We found this paper to be reproducible, with effort. The authors did not specify how the data was preprocessed (e.g., how missing values were imputed) or how it was split into training and test. We were ultimately able to reproduce the results sufficiently to agree with the conclusions, but were unable to reproduce the values in the findings exactly.
This paper was published in 2021 in the NeurIPS Work-shop on Math AI for Education (MATHAI4ED). It has not been cited as of August 2022, according to Google scholar. Fruiht and Chan (2018) use Add Health to investigate the role that naturally occurring mentors play in the educational outcomes of first-generation college students. The authors fit a statistical mediation model introduced by Preacher and Hayes (2008) (PROCESS Model, variation 1) to test both direct and interaction effects of parental educational attainment and mentorship on the educational attainment of the student. They conclude that having at least one parent who graduated from college, or having a mentor in adolescence or emerging adulthood, was positively associated with higher educational attainment. The authors also found that African Americans experienced significantly lower educational attainment than other participants. This paper was partially reproducible, with substantial effort. In addition to using the Add Health study, the authors also report on findings made though manual qualitative coding of free text responses regarding the nature of support provided by the mentor, but do not make the coding scheme publicly available. We were thus unable to reproduce the findings that rely on this coding scheme. For other findings, lack of detail about pre-processing, such as how individuals with multiple races were categorized into racial groups, prevented a perfect replication of many of the values reported in the paper, although we were able to reproduce the observed trends and agree with the authors conclusions.
The paper was published in 2018 in the American Journal of Community Psychology, a reputable quarterly journal that covers community health, community processes, and social reform. It has been cited 42 times as of August 2022 according to Google Scholar. Iverson and Terry (2021) respond to what they deem "growing public concern" around the long term effects of playing football in high school on health later in life. The authors conduct an analysis across male participants from the first wave  to the most recent (2016-2018) wave of Add Health. They analyze the effect of having played high school football on depressive and suicidal tendencies later in life, controlling for demographic and risk factors.
The authors are mainly concerned with proportions of history of depression and recent suicidal ideation, and conduct a bivariate analysis across two groups of men (those who did or did not play football in high school). Their primary means of analysis are simple percent comparisons with high statistical significance and meaningful odds ratios.
Through these comparisons, the authors did not find a direct effect of playing football in high school on depressive tendencies later in life. However, they did find that those who already had depressive tendencies in adolescence were more likely to maintain those tendencies as they got older.
This paper was easy to reproduce. The authors provided precise guidance on which questions (columns) they used from the data and, because their techniques were fundamentally simple, we were able to exactly match nearly all values reported in the paper, reproducing all findings.
The paper was published in 2022 in Frontiers of Neurology, a top journal in the field. It has not been cited as of