Analysis of Factors influencing the Purchasing Decision of Facial Foam labeled Halal

Consumers in deciding the purchase are motivated by various factors. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of price, product quality, product design, and brand image on purchasing decisions. The type of data used is primary data, using equestionnaires. The sampling technique uses purposive sampling. The analysis technique uses multiple regression. The analysis shows that the price has a positive and significant effect on purchasing decisions. Product quality has a positive and significant influence on purchasing decisions. Product design has a positive and significant effect on purchasing decisions. Brand image has a positive and significant influence on purchasing decisions. In the future, the company needs to set prices following the purchasing power of the people but still maintain product quality and pay attention to product design. @2020 Journal of Digital Marketing and Halal Industry

Introduction
Competition in the cosmetic industry today is very strict with the presence of diverse creative products. How to survive in the cosmetic industry is with still has the creativity and produces the products and innovation. The very rapid development of the course resulted in more competition among the actors in the business (Munggaran, 2015). Someone needs a cosmetic because to protect the skin from is required by most of the people, especially women, although men sometimes there is also a need cosmetics to keep the appearance because of the work-related with the crowd (Tarigan, 2016).
Indonesia has produced facial soap cleansers from various manufacturers and brands. Based on the data market share category facial cleansing soap years 2016 -2018, then it can be aware of rank, namely :

Tabel 1 Market Share Facial Cleansing Soap
Year 2016  Pond's occupy ranked first. Market share demonstrates mastery of the broad market or the highest margin sales in the market, meaning that the higher the market share, the higher the consumer purchase decision (Buchari Alma, 2013). However, from the years 2016 -2018, market shares tend to fall, i.e., from to 40.6% in 2016, be of 40% year 2017 even decreased to 29.3% of the year 2018. It is indicated that the tendency to decrease market share show that purchase decision is getting down.
Seen of the three competitors products Pond's, Biore, and Garnier experience the increase from 2015 -2017, so as not analyzed because consumer purchase decisions are already good show that product is also better. Therefore, this study intends to research cleaning soap brand Pond's.
The decision the purchase was the decision that made individuals use resources they have available to consume (Daryanto, 2013). Consumers many make purchase decisions every day (Fataron & Rohmah, 2020). Large companies are researching the purchasing decisions of consumers in detail to be able to answer question-questions: what, where, how, how much, when, and why they buy. Marketers can teach the purchasing consumer to answer the question: what, where, and how much they buy, but learn about why the behavior the purchase the consumer is not too easy (Ginting, 2012).
Many factors can affect the purchase decision. According To (Erviana, 2014), (Achidah, Nur, 2016), (Tengor, Gloria, 2016) as well as (Muhtarom, 2018), the factors that can affect the decision of purchase is a price, quality, product design, and brand image. The research also supported by some other researchers such as (Habibah, 2016), (Puspita, Diestutiace Lucky, 2016), (Tarigan, 2016) as well as (Ansah, 2017). However, in the study (Martini, 2015) and (Imelda, Sri, 2016) shows a different result than the price and quality of the product is not influence on purchase decisions. Based on background and research gap in above, then researchers interested in examining the factors that affect the decision consumer purchase facial foam Pond's has been certified halal in Semarang

Literature Review
Definition of marketing, according to (Kotler, 1997) is a social and managerial process in which individuals and groups get what they need and want by creating, offering, and exchanging products with other parties. The definition of Marketing according to Harper W (2000: 4) that Marketing is "A social process involving important activities that enable individuals and companies to get what they need and want through exchanges with other parties and to develop exchange relationships. "The definition of marketing mix according to (Swastha, 2002) that Marketing Mix is "a combination of four variables of activities that are the core of the company's marketing system, namely products, price structures, promotional activities, and distribution systems.

Buying Decision
The decision purchase is to buy a brand the most desired consumers (Ginting, 2012). Another concept of the purchase decision is a decision that made individuals use their resources that have been available to consume an item (Daryanto, 2013). Description of other purchase decisions is the decision taken individuals because of the stimuli (the stimuli), both that comes from outside the individual and the things that are on the individual himself (Paul & Olson, 2013). Retrieval consumer decision is the process of receiving and evaluating brand information product specific. There are two factors that affect decision-making, which will then determine the response of the consumer. The first is the consumer itself, and the second are environmental factors (Suryani, 2013).
Companies understand how consumer decisions will respond to a variety of figure products, prices, and stimulation of advertising that has the advantages of its competitors.
Consumers will receive stimulation and give us your feedback (Ginting, 2012). The stimuli (stimulus) marketing consists of product, price, promotion, and distribution. As for the incentives, another belonging to the strength and important events in the environment, consumers economical, technological, political, and cultural. All this input entered in the consumer's mind, where all change to be response buyers look product choice, brand choice, when purchase, and the number of purchases (Ginting, 2012). Marketers want to understand how the stimuli changed to responses in the minds of the buyer, which consists of two parts. First, the characteristics of the buyer that causes the consumer to apply receive and react to stimuli. Second, the process of that decision owns that affect the buyer (Ginting, 2012).

Price
Price is the amount of money that must be paid by the consumer to forget the product (Ginting, 2012). The definition of other price is the value of the goods declared with the money (Ginting, 2012). Another meaning price is the number of money in pay for a product, or some values are interchangeable consumers for the benefits of having or using the product (Buchari Alma, 2013). Another meaning price is the number of money in play for a product, or several values are interchangeable consumers for the benefits of having or using the product (Daryanto, 2013). Other concepts price is a unit of monetary or other sizes exchanged in order to obtain the right of ownership or use of a goods or services (Tjiptono, 2015).
Price it is the only element in the marketing mix generate income. Price is also an element of the mix marketing the most easy customized. In addition, the price also communicates the value of the company's products against the market (Widiyono dan Mukhaer Pakkanna, 2013).
The determination of the the price is one of the most important decision in marketing. The price is the only element of the marketing mix that income or revenue for the company, while the third of the other elements (product, distribution, and promotion) leads to onset the cost (expenditure). In addition, price is an element of the marketing mix besifat flexible, meaning that it can be changed quickly. Different is the case with the characteristics of the product or commitment to the distribution channel. Both of the latter can not modified/adjusted easily and quickly, because usually it concerns long-term decisions (Tjiptono, 2015).
Price not just the numbers on the price tag. Price has a lot of forms and carry out many functions. Throughout history, the price set through negotiations between the buyer and the seller. Fresh bid is still often performed in several fields. Set one the price for all buyers is the idea of a relatively modern embossed with the development of the retail trade large scale at the end of the century nineteenth (Kotler, 2014).
Practices pricing has undergone major changes in the years last. Many companies counteract the tendency of a low price and successfully encourage consumers to purchase products and services more expensive by combining the formulation of a unique product that involves marketing campaign (Kotler, 2014).
The decision the purchase is based on how consumers perceive prices and some of the prices the actual current to be considered is not the price otherwise marketers. Consumers may have a lower limit price in where the price is lower than the limit that signifies quality bad or quality is not acceptable, and also the upper limit price where the price is higher than the limit it is considered too excessive and not worth the money spent (Kotler, 2014).

Quality Product
Quality the product is the ability of a product to the displayed function (Ginting, 2012). Another definition of product quality is the ability products to carry out its functions (Daryanto, 2013). Understanding another quality product is the totality of features and characteristics of products or services that rely on its ability to satisfy stated needs or implied (Kotler, 2014).
Quality products regarding the general resistance of the product, reliability, precision, ease of operation and repair as well as the attribute value other. Although some of these attributes are measurable, but of the view of marketers, the quality of the products must be measured with the perception of the buyer. Companies rarely want to try it or able to offers a level of quality product that is probably the most high (Ginting, 2012).
Quality the product should also be determined by the way consumers perceive product the. From a marketing standpoint, quality is the ability of the product to satisfy the needs or desires of consumers. This definition focuses on consumers and how the consumer thinks a product will fulfill the purpose of the certain (Ginting, 2012).
In outside levels the quality of the product, the high quality also means submission consistent above the level of the quality target to the consumers. In this sense, the quality of the product means without damage and the variation. All the company must seek a high level of consistency quality (Ginting, 2012).
Company-company change the quality of the product becomes a weapons strategy that potential. Quality strategy quality is the improvement of the quality of a little over competitors by consistently presenting products and services to better serve the needs and preferences of consumers on the quality of the product (Ginting, 2012).
The provision of the right product on time, in place and in the desired way the consumer is a challenge. This is true, whether the product such is the services the main, main item, or as usual, a mix between both. Marketing managers must think about the overall products. Products provided as well as ensuring that all elements of the has been aligned in the marketing strategy. Sometimes, a product not enough to meet the needs of the target consumers. Therefore, it is necessary to mix with other products (Ginting, 2012).
Companies that are not able to create the new product will face the risk of such a decrease in the volume of sale, because the emergence of a competitor who is creative, a change in consumer tastes, the emergence of new technologies in the production process (Ginting, 2012).
The idea about the product as excellence or satisfaction that the potential for the consumer is very important. Many business managers to focus too much on a technical detail in producing a product. On the other hand, many consumers are think of about products in terms of the total benefits that it offers. Satisfaction the may be in the form of deals total product which is a blend between the good service, interesting physical features that accordingly, a useful guide, packaging neat, warranty can be trusted, and even the brand easy to remember (Ginting, 2012).

Design
Design the product is the overall appearance of the product which compare one product with other products (Ginting, 2012). Another definition design the product is the process of designing the style and functionality of the product attractive, easy, safe and not expensive to use and serviceable, as well as simple and economical to be made and distributed (Daryanto, 2013: 54). The concept of other design product is the totality of features affect the look, feel, and functionality of the product based on the needs of consumers (Kotler, 2014).
Opinion on the good design is very convincing especially for the company's products consumers who are more small companies and beginners who do not have the advertising budget is large (Kotler, 2014).
Design more than just the outer skin, the design is at the heart of the product. Design well not only has contributed in the appearance of the product but also in manfaathis. Good design is judged by the understanding deep about the needs of the customer. More than just creating the attribute products or services, the design involving the formation of experience the use of the product for the customer. Therefore, the design of the product you should not think too much about product attributes and specifications technical think of how customers use and benefit from the product (Kotler, 2014)

Image Brand
Image brand is the impression obtained in accordance with the knowledge and the understanding of someone about something (Buchari Alma, 2013). The other definitions of brand image is the perception and attitude of consumers towards the brand based on what received and perceived by the consumers (Peter, 2013). Another concept image brand is everything associated with the brand in the minds of the consumer or the impression consumer about a brand (Suryani, 2013).
Image has a major role in influencing the decision-making consumers. When consumers do not have complete information about the product, then the consumer will use brand image as the basis of choosing a product (Suryani, 2013). Image is the perception consumers towards the brand thoroughly is formed by the information received and the consumer experience of the brand. What appears when consumers were asked about the image of a brand, then the consumer will reveal the impression and belief brand specific (Suryani, 2013).
Consumers in general have a positive perception towards the brand pioneer (the first brand in a product category), even though the brand the next appears. After that also there is a positive correlation between the brand image of pioneer with the image of the ideal self of the individual. Perception positive towards the brand pioneer, this will lead to the intention purchase a positive (Suryani, 2013).
A the image of a strong brand has a wealth of brand high, because consumers have brand loyalty, high awareness of name, quality received, trademark, and relationship distribution. A brand with a strong image is a valuable asset (Ginting, 2012).
Marketers have to manage the brand carefully in order to maintain the image of the brand. Marketers must develop a strategy that efficient to maintain and even increase brand awareness, acceptance quality and the usefulness of brand and brand associations are positive all the time. It this requires investment in research and development continuously, advertising is dodgy and the service of the commercial and the consumer a great (Ginting, 2012). Brand name tell buyers regarding the quality of the product. Buyers always buy the same brand because knowing that will obtain the same quality each times buy (Ginting, 2012: 103).

Method, Data, and Analysis
Research this is a type of quantitative research. The population this study is a consumer-soap facial cleanser Pond's in Semarang that the amount is not known because every day there are fluctuations obtained from Google Form. Sample in this study, is the most consumers soap facial cleanser Pond's in Semarang obtained from Google Form. Because the number of the population is not known then the number of  (Siregar, 2013). In research is the source of the data comes from a questionnaire given to 100 respondents, then from the results statement were analyzed.
Methods data collection used was a questionnaire or questionnaires. The questionnaire is a technique of collecting data by providing or distribute a list of questions/questions to the respondents with hope written answers (Arikunto, 2013). List the question/statement can be open if the answer is no determined previous, while is closed if alternative answers have been provided. Instruments in the form of sheet of a list of questions can be in the form of a questionnaire (questionnaire), checklist or scale.
Techniques the analysis in this study is Multiple Regression Analysis. Regression multiple used to measure the strength of the relationship between the two or more variables, also shows the direction of relationship between variables the dependent with the independent variable (Ghozali, 2012). Metode regresi berganda ini dikembangkan untuk mengestimasi nilai variabel dependen (Y) dengan menggunakan lebih dari satu variabel independen (X). The method of multiple regression is developed to estimate the value of the dependent variable (Y) by using more than one variable independent (X). Pond's before affected variables price, the quality of the product, product design, and brand image. 2. Coefficient regression price (b1) = 0,236, the value of the positive that is there is every price tools, it will increase the purchasing decision. 3. Coefficient the regression of the quality of the product (b2) = 0,439, the value of the positive that is there is every increase the quality of the product, it will increase the purchasing decision. 4. Coefficient regression of product design (b3) = 0,367, the value of the positive that is there is every improved product design, then it will improve the decision of the purchase.

Coefficient regression of brand image (b4)
= 0,408, this means that every there is an increased brand image, it will increase the the decision of the purchase.

Uji Model
Test the model is used to see whether or not the regression model on this study. Testing using the coefficient of determination and test -F. a. Coefficient Determination b. Coefficient determination used to see the ability of the variable price, the quality of the product, product design, and brand image in describes the purchase decision.
The results of the coefficient of determination can be seen in the table Three the following:  Results test -F of 132,074 with a sig of 0.000 is smaller (<) 0.05, which means price, product quality, product design and brand image effect on purchase decisions simultaneously so that the regression model accepted.

Testing Hypothesis
Testing the hypothesis in this research can be done from the results of the test -t, which is used for prove the existence of influence between variable price, the quality of the product, product design, and brand image against purchase decision partial. Testing is done based on the significance value i.e. if the obtained value sig. smaller (<) 0.05 then the hypothesis is accepted. Results t -test can be seen in table 5. Based on from the results of t -test, then it can be done proof as the following : 1. Results test -t prices by 2,114 with sig 0,037 smaller (<) 0.05 means accept the hypothesis that the stated prices influence the purchase decision. 2. Results t -test the quality of the product by 3,060 with sig 0,003 smaller (<) 0.05 means accept the hypothesis that stated the quality of the product influence the decision purchase. 3. Results t -test of product design of 2,199 with sig 0,030 smaller (<) 0.05 means accept the hypothesis that stated the design of the product influence the decision purchase. 4. Results t -test of brand image by 2,528 with sig 0,013 smaller (<) 0.05 means accept the hypothesis that stated image of the brand effect against the decision of the purchase.

The influence of Price Against The Decision Of The Purchase Facial Foam Pond's in Semarang
Test hypothesis proves that the price has positive and significant effect against the decision of the purchase, with the results obtained from the t -test by 2,114 and sig. 0,037 < 0,05. These results can be interpreted more according to the price offered then will further improve the consumer buying decision against soap facial cleanser Pond's. Price is the value of an item that is expressed with money (Buchari Alma, 2013). Consumers will consider the price of a products with the financial condition of the possessed, i.e. if the condition the financial enough to reach the price offered then they can make purchasing decisions.
As comparison to the specifications of the products are almost the same, namely whitening for Pond's White Beauty Micellar Water 100 ml size is offered at a range of Rp 28.500, while for other brands that Garnier Sakura White Pinkish Radiance Facial Foam Cleanser 100 ml is offered for the price Rp 23.000, so there is still enough there is a difference with the price of other brands. This makes the consumer still needs a lot of consideration if you want to continue to do purchase soap pemberih face Pond's, because the price is still less compete with the price of other brands.
Consumers himself gave a high appraisal to the price of harga soap facial cleanser Pond's according to the perceived benefits on the face (the value of the average 3,46). This shows that the price offered in accordance with the benefits provided for example with make a purchase Pond's Facial Foam White Beauty for Rp 28.800 but can be beneficial for the face, namely the face always looks clean and moist free oil and always look white and clean throughout the day. It this can increase the attractiveness of the appearance so that it becomes consideration of consumer to make a purchase. Consumers also give high ratings for harga soap facial cleanser Pond's according to the quality of its products (the value of the average is 3.45), as for the high end variant that is Pond's Instabgriht Tone Up offered at a price range of Rp 40.000 in accordance with the usage of quality material selection such as using vitamin B3+ which serves to rejuvenate the skin, protect UV rays and inflammation of the skin, and using milk protein essence that serves to cleanse the skin cells with nutrients clear up the facial skin so the original skin tone brighter. With the price of a comparable quality material then it will give benefits is maximum and it is safe to use, so it is that can attract the interest of consumers to make a purchase soap facial cleanser Pond's.
Based on from the perception given by the consumer then the for the price need offered in a range that is affordable as with give a price discount for consumers who make a purchase in some stores partner sales both online stores and offline so with the discount, the prices become cheaper and consumers will be more willing to do the purchase soap facial cleanser Pond's. Another thing that needs to be done in terms of prices is to apply price compete with the prices that are fixed but give volume or the contents of the packaging more than the brand competitors, so the the price is expensive but consumers can get the content more and could certainly be used in the long term. This could save even more because not often do purchase. This factor which will attract the desire of consumers to make a purchase soap facial cleanser Pond's.

The influence of The Quality Of The Product Against The Decision Of The Purchase Facial Foam Pond's in Semarang
Test hypothesis proves that quality product have a positive and significant impact on purchasing decisions, with the obtained results of t -test of 3,060 and sig. 0,003 < 0,05. This result can be interpreted as the higher the quality of the product soap facial cleanser Pond's will be more improved consumer purchase decisions. Quality the product is the ability of a product to the displayed function (Ginting, 2012). Products that are able to demonstrate the functions of the the product is capable of providing the required consumer so this makes the consumer interested in making a purchase.
For women consumers each day using a make up then after finished the day or when at home then there is a desire to clean the rest of the makeup so that the face back look clean and for this sabun facial cleanser Pond's provides product Pond's Shake & Clean which is a cleaning product at once freshener the face of dirt-the dirt, because there is content alcohol although not excessive that can help to clean the dirt effectively so that the rest of the makeup is not look again. This shows the use of the product quality so that consumers will be interested to do purchase.
Assessment high also given regarding the sabun Consumers women also want more attractive conditions on the skin of the face so to meet these needs soap facial cleanser Pond's provides product Flawless White with the Rose Lumiere Serum Rose made of flower extract rose Alphine which helps lock in moisture and disguise dull skin from the inside so that it can reduce dark spots black.
With the use of quality products that are able to provide the value of the benefits in accordance with its function as a product that can remove dead skin and reduce dark spots then it is a make consumers are interested to make a purchase sabun facial cleanser Pond's.
course consumers get the benefits after using it more than two weeks so this makes the consumers feel with confidence will the ability to give benefits in accordance with the promised time. This condition necessarily need to be a concern for sabun facial cleanser Pond's, that could further increase the content of active Thymo-T Essence and technology Lock + Clear are used for this product to be provide benefits according to the promised time so that it can growing consumer confidence in the product sabun facial cleanser Pond's. This can further enhance the desire of consumers to to make a purchase.

The influence of Product Design Against The Decision Of The Purchase Facial Foam Pond's in Semarang
Test hypothesis proves that design product have a positive and significant impact on purchasing decisions, with the obtained results of t -test of 2,199 and sig. 0,030 < 0,05. These results can be interpreted more and better product design soap facial cleanser Pond's will be more improved consumer purchase decisions. Design product is the totality of features affect the look, feel, and functionality of the product based on the needs of consumers (Kotler, 2014). Design attractive products will be able to improve selfconfidence the consumer in using the product, in addition with the design practical, so easy to carry anywhere then it will give value add for the consumer. This makes the design of the product can influence consumers to make a purchase.
Packaging soap facial cleanser Pond's use a tube light and also there is a small size, which is 50 grams so easy to put into a pocket or bag so that it can carry anywhere and used at any time. It this shows the design soap facial cleanser Pond's have more advantages in terms of practical packaging so that consumers are interested to make a purchase.
Based on from the assessment of the consumer hence to design need to be made with the model packaging is interesting as the use tube packaging it contains a pump of the foam so that the consumer press the top of the bottle then the package contents will come out without having to open the the lid of the bottle so easy to use. This can be add to the appeal of consumers to make a purchase.
Other factors that need to be improved to design that consider to make the contents of the packaging with a more interesting color such as colored nodes in order to give the natural impression so that it can add to the interest of the consumer to make a purchase soap facial cleanser Pond's.

The influence of The Image Of The Brand Against Purchase Decision Facial Foam Pond's in Semarang
Test hypothesis proves that image brand have a positive and significant impact on purchasing decisions, with the obtained results of t -test of 2,528 and sig. 0,013 < 0,05. This result can be interpreted as the higher the brand image soap facial cleanser Pond's will be more improved consumer purchase decisions. Image brand is the perception and attitude of consumers towards the brand based on what received and perceived by the consumers (Peter, 2013). Consumers who feel positive things when using a product as tools used to meet the needs and have other advantages such as strong or durable and no service complaints after the use of the services of the manufacturer then the consumer will give a good perception towards the image of the product and this will make consumers will prefer to use products that have the image of the good.
Factors this is affected because sabun cleaning the face of the brand Pond's using the brand name that is simple so it is easily memorized and be one of the products that are heavily promoted in various media like television, which shows they have the desire to be product soap facial cleanser that compete and excel with the various products vary, so this makes consumers easily remember sabun cleaning the face of the brand Pond's and raises the desire to make a purchase because they has the quality to compete with other products.
Based on from the perception given by the consumer is seen that the consumer give you lowest valuation on the sabun cleaning the face of the brand Pond's easy to remember. This can be based on because sabun cleaning the face of the brand Pond's using a variety of foreign names in different variants of its products such as beauty white clay foam and instabright tone up cream so consumers sometimes forget when to use product variants 've ever used because it uses unfamiliar terms.
On the basis of this then you should sabun cleaning the face of the brand Pond's using terms that are more common or easy to remember for each variants such as the use of bahasa Indonesia to further strengthen the image as a product that is intended for consumers in Indonesia, so this will add to the desire of consumers to make a purchase.
Results the study supports research (Erviana, 2014) as well as (Ansah, 2017) that states that the brand image influence on purchase decisions.

Conclusion
Based on the results of the research that has been done on the influence of price, quality, design products and brand image on purchase decisions consumer soap facial cleanser Pond's in Semarang, then it can be drawn the following conclusion: 1. Test hypothesis proves that prices have a positive and significant to the purchasing decision. This result can be concluded the offer price soap facial cleanser Pond's tools it will increase the consumer purchase decision. 2. Test hypothesis proves that the quality of product of influential positive and significant to the purchasing decision. This result can be concluded the increase of the quality of the product soap cleanser face Pond's then it will increase purchase decisions consumers. 3. Test hypothesis proves that the product design has positive and significant to the purchasing decision. This result can be inferred the existence of the design product soap facial cleanser Pond's the more attractive it will increase the purchasing decision consumers.
4. Test hypothesis proves that brand image has positive and significant to the purchasing decision. This result can be concluded the increase of the image of the brand soap facial cleanser Pond's then it will increase the consumer purchase decision.

Recommendation
1. Quality the product becomes variable the biggest influence purchase decisions. Sebaiknya sabun facial cleanser Pond's add a formula that can help in speeding up the black blemishes such as extract Lemon, so that it can benefit blemishes black in two weeks as promised. 2. Image brand be variable the second influence purchase decisions. Sabun facial cleanser Pond's preferably more often publish the name of each variant of the products sold in a variety of the place which often becomes the place of purchase of consumers, such as by pasting the name of the product variants clear solution facial crub, deep whitening facial foam, white beauty cleansing milk in display that there is a self, so that when the consumer already come and forget with a variant of the product to be purchased then it can be read it on a poster tacked on the display. 3. Design product be variable the third influence purchase decisions. Sabun facial cleanser Pond's need to make a more interesting color such as transparent color in order to give the impression of a natural so it can be more interesting the desire of consumers to make a purchase sabun facial cleanser Pond's. 4. Price be variable the smallest that affect the purchase decision. Preferably sabun facial cleanser Pond's offers more affordable prices as cooperation with the outlet or supermarket that is every voting member shopping in outlet or self-service if buy product'sabun facial cleanser Pond's will directly be given the discounted price so get price more affordable if you become a member. 5. Variable analyzed influence on purchase decisions Pond's facial foam labeled halal in this study, namely price, quality, product design and brand image. It this is caused by the limitations time research, so there are still variables other that affect the purchase decision and not included in the this study. In addition to adding variables, we recommend for further research can add consumer respondents product facial foam labeled halal other (not only consumers of the brand Pond's).


s2fieldsofstudy: Business Economics

text:
Do Activities of Foreign Investors Affect Main Stock Exchange Indices? Evidence from Turkey before and in Time of COVID-19 Pandemic

<br>The net selling amount and foreign investors’ retention share have been criticized due to the effects on stock exchange indices. The study focuses on the development of the main index in Turkey (XU100 index) by examining two sub-parts (i.e. before and in COVID-19 pandemic). Daily data between 01.02.2020 and 06.26.2020 are analyzed by applying the Engle-Granger cointegration test, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The findings reveal that (i) net selling amount of foreign investors has an effect on the index in COVID-19 pandemic times; (ii) retention share of foreign investors is influential on the index for both period; (iii) there is cointegration between the index and independent variables but this relationship is not at causality level.

Introduction
The world has been faced with the Covid-19 common disease phenomenon recently. It originated from China at the end of 2019, spread to other countries, which are close to China in the first months of 2020, and has become pandemic in March 2020 (World Health Organization-WHO, 2020a). The Covid-19 pandemic has been influencing all countries deeply and negatively nowadays.
With the spreading of Covid-19 to countries, most economic and financial indicators have begun to deteriorate. In this context, negative developments have been seen in these indicators such as credit default swap (CDS) spreads, foreign exchange rates (FER), retention share, and net selling amount of foreign investors in equity markets, interest rates, and oil prices. All of these indicators are crucial in terms of roles and effects in economies (Orhan et al., 2019) because they affect foreign investment inflows to countries and investment decisions of foreign investors as well.
All countries pay attention to foreign investments. However, foreign investments have much more significance, especially in emerging countries. Emerging countries can mainly provide financing from external (international/foreign) sources because domestic savings are not sufficient to finance economic activities and growth. Hence, emerging countries try to attract much more foreign investments. By considering that there are two types of foreign investments, which are direct and portfolio (Karikari, 1992;Zengin et al., 2018), attracting more foreign direct investment is not easy because of the geopolitical and political considerations. On the other hand, stimulating foreign portfolio investments, which can be made via bonds, bills, and equities, is much easier concerning foreign direct investments.
Foreign investors consider the riskiness of countries in allocating funds among various asset opportunities to benefit from diversification (Dooley & Hutchison, 2009;Yang et al., 2018;Akhtaruzzaman et al., 2020a) in decreasing risks in the globalizing world. Besides, financial, fiscal, price, and macroeconomic stability in invested countries are significant for foreign investors. All these have a huge role in the financing and development of emerging countries via affecting the improvement of both the real and financial sectors.
Although increasing foreign investments is desired, there are also some arguments against the role of foreign investments in emerging countries. Especially, foreign portfolio investments have been criticized very often. Naturally, it is expected that foreign portfolio investments make effects on the financial markets (i.e. stock exchanges) of countries. Foreign investments affect the development of equity markets, prices, returns, and volatility (Hargis & Ramanlal, 1997;Bekaert & Harvey, 2003). However, the direction of foreign investment effects is not clear and crucial at this point. Levine & Zervos (1998), and Rogoff (1999) conclude that foreign capital inflows make a positive contribution to countries' growth and development. On the other hand, some have argued that retention share and net selling amount in this study have negative effects (Adabag & Ornelas, 2004) if foreign investors decrease the retention share and increase the net selling amount on emerging countries. Also, unfettered activities of foreign investors are evaluated as harmful by some researchers (Rodrik & Subramanian, 2009;Stiglitz, 2010).
On the other hand, there is a Covid-19 pandemic reality in the world that has been affecting all countries. There are nearly 9.9 million cases, and 497 thousand deaths because of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world as of 06.26.202006.26. (WHO, 2020b. Similarly, the Covid-19 pandemic increased in Turkey. Covid-19 has been determined on 03.10.2020 and the first death has occurred on 03.17.2020 in Turkey. Total cases have become 194.5 thousand and total deaths are 5 thousand in Turkey resulting from Covid-19 as of 06.26.2020 (Ministry of Health of Turkey-MHT, 2020).
While Covid-19 presents and continues to cause deaths, economic and financial indicators have been deteriorating in such an environment. Even, the pandemic causes unprecedented and destructive effects on economies and indicators (Goodell, 2020;Rizwan et al., 2020). Therefore, the Covid-19 pandemic should be considered in making any analysis, especially when examining macroeconomic and financial related issues such as the development of the main stock index. Also, it is seen that the level of economic activities has been decreasing in the time of Covid-19. Therefore, the negative effects of the pandemic have been felt deeply in emerging countries. In this context, Figure 1 presents the development of the XU100 index, cumulative cases, and deaths resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey. As Figure 1 shows, the XU100 index was relatively high before the Covid-19 pandemic times concerning in time of the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, total cumulative cases have reached 194.5 thousand and total deaths have become 5 thousand as of 06.26.2020 in Turkey.
Turkey has been taking measures to decrease the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy, corporations, households, and individuals which is similar to other countries affected by the pandemic (Akhtaruzzaman et al., 2020b;Gherghina et al., 2020;Kartal, 2020;Narayan et al., 2020;. Some of these measures could be summarized as local lockdowns, quarantines on residential areas, ban on flights, lowering the minimum payment requirements of credit cards, cash transfers to families in need, increasing the amount of funding markets by the central bank of the Republic of Turkey including buying governmental bonds, deferred credit payments to banks, deferred governmental (tax and social security premium) payments in various sectors, and minimum wage subsidies (Stanley, 2020;Official Gazette, 2020).
In summary, Turkey has been in the Covid-19 pandemic since 11.03.2020, there have been serious cumulative cases and deaths resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, there is an important amount of foreign portfolio outflows from Turkey since the beginning of 2020, and the XU100 index has been decreasing and in low-level concerning before the Covid-19 pandemic period. The low-level of the stock exchange index causes the underpricing of Turkish assets and this situation is negative for Turkey. In this context, it could be beneficial to examine the effects of activities of foreign investors on the main stock exchange index in Covid-19 pandemic times and whether the effects of these factors vary according to period whether Turkey is in either before the Covid-19 pandemic period or in Covid-19 pandemic times. This determination could contribute to regulatory bodies to develop policies, take measures, and prevent the negative effects on main stock exchange indices. Hence foreign portfolio investments to Turkey via equities could be stimulated, and Turkey could have the opportunity to increase foreign portfolio inflows, and Turkish assets could be priced at their fair value that all affect the distribution of financial sources among alternative investment instruments including stock exchange.
The study aims to define the effects of activities of foreign investors on the XU100 index by performing the Engle-Granger cointegration test, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and MARS analysis. Daily data between 01.02.2020 and 06.26.2020, activities of foreign investors (retention share and net selling amount), and the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic are used for this aim. Turkey is focused on because of being a pioneering and leading emerging country and the main stock exchange index of Turkey decreased on average at an important amount during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Also, the main motivation of the study is that there are approximately Turkish Lira (TRY) 33 billion foreign portfolio outflows from Turkey stock market since 2020 beginning (Central Securities Depositories of Turkey-CSD, 2020) and whether the behavior of foreign investors are influential on the main stock exchange index of Turkey or not.
The main contributions of the study are that the study (i) is the pioneer study in Turkey examining the effects of foreign investors' activities on the main stock exchange index at Covid-19 age; (ii) examines the XU100 index by focusing on mainly foreign investors' activities with using retention share and net selling amount as dependent variables; (iii) performs Engle-Granger cointegration test and Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Also, the study employs the MARS method which is used for the first time to examine the changes of the XU100 index; (iv) uses daily data between 01.02.2020 and 06.26.2020 which covers before and in time of the Covid-19 pandemic. Data for foreign retention share, which is calculated based on the openness of publicly traded companies in Borsa İstanbul (BIST), is also used for the first time.
The rest of the study is organized as follows. Part 2 explains the variables by benefitting from the literature, data, and methods used in the study. Part 3 presents the empirical results. Part 4 presents a findings-based discussion and policy implications. Part 5 concludes.

Variables
By considering that the study focuses on the effects of foreign investors' activities on the main stock exchange index, the XU100 index is used as a dependent variable because the XU100 index is the main stock exchange index in Turkey as in line with the studies of Kesik et al. (2016), and Kartal et al. (2020).
In the literature, some studies examine the causes of the main stock exchange indices' changes. In this context, a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables such as economic growth, foreign direct investments, foreign exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, money supply, production index, etc. are considered in these studies. For example, Kwon & Shin (1999) consider the production index, exchange rate, trade balance, and money supply. However, data for such variables are issued on a quarterly or monthly basis, and the study focuses on the Covid-19 pandemic times which requires working with the most recent (i.e. daily base) data. By considering this fact, Kartal et al. (2020) include CDS spreads, FER, foreign investors' retention share, and net selling amount as variables that have daily data. For these reasons, the mentioned macroeconomic variables are not considered and included in the study. Moreover, it is acknowledged that there is evolving literature concerning the Covid-19 pandemic and its effects on various economic and financial indicators.
On the other hand, foreign portfolio inflows, foreign investors' trading, and net selling amount of foreign investors in emerging economies are examined in various studies. Table 1 summarizes some of these studies. The retention amount of foreign investors is influential in both the pre-pandemic and the pandemic periods.  Table 1 summarizes, various studies consider the effects of the foreign investors' activities on stock exchanges. These studies define that some of the foreign trading phenomena are not beneficial; foreign investors make the equity market more efficient and decrease the volatility in the long-run; the equity market index increases when foreign inflows increase. Therefore, it is most likely to make the effect of foreign investors' activities on the XU100 index. In this context, retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors are taken into account in the analysis as dependent variables by considering these studies since the study focuses on the effects of foreign investors' activities XU100 index. Besides, a positive relationship is expected between the XU100 index and retention share of foreign investors; and XU100 and net selling amount of foreign investors.
Moreover, as a black swan case, the Covid-19 pandemic is considered. It is acknowledged that there is a growing literature on the pandemic. By considering that stock market indices have been affected negatively by the pandemic (Adekoya & Kofi Nti, 2020;Al-Awadhi et al., 2020;Ali et al., 2020;Ashraf, 2020;Baker et al., 2020;Corbet et al., 2020;Engelhardt et al., 2020;Erdem, 2020;Gherghina et al., 2020;Liu et al., 2020;Mazur et al., 2020;Zhang et al., 2020), the presence of the pandemic in Turkey, which was seen for the first time on 03.10.2020, is taken into consideration. We use the beginning date of the pandemic in Turkey. Table 2 summarizes the details of the variables considered in the analysis.

Data
This study focuses on Turkey by considering that there is a high amount of foreign portfolio outflows from the stock exchange since the 2020 year beginning and the main stock market index has decreased at an important amount. In this context, the study includes the period between 01.02.2020 and 06.26.2020. This period is selected to focus on the very recent period including Covid-19 pandemic times and the nearest period before the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, data for business days are considered because data of variables can be obtained only for the business day.
Data for the XU100 index are gathered from Bloomberg Terminal. Also, data for foreign investors' retention share and net selling amount are gathered from CSD (2020). Besides, data for Covid-19 situations are gathered from MHT (2020).

Unit root test
The first issue in the analysis is to test the stationarity of the variables to prevent spurious regression and misleading conclusions in turn. Although there is a variety of unit root tests to examine the stationary condition of the data set. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) is employed in the study to examine the stationarity by considering that this is mostly used in financial time series and studies.
The hypotheses of the ADF test are expressed as follows:  H0: Series include unit root (non-stationary).  H1: Series include no unit root (stationary). If test statistics (prob.) of ADF are lower or equal to 0.05, then the H0 hypothesis is rejected which means that the series is stationary.

Engle-Granger cointegration test
Engle-Granger cointegration test, which focuses on the long-term relationship among the variables of time-series, includes two steps procedure. In the first step, the stationarity of variables should be provided. After that, regression is applied. Residuals of the regression model are again examined in terms of stationarity by performing unit root tests. If residuals are stationary, then there is a long-term relationship (cointegration) between variables. In other words, these variables move together.
In the second step, the short-term relationship is analyzed with the estimation of an error correction model (ECM). Residual of the regression model could be used to estimate ECM if variables have a long-term relationship (Granger, 1969;Engle & Granger, 1987).
The hypotheses of the Engle-Granger cointegration test are expressed as follows:  H0: Variables are not cointegrated (Residuals of OLS include unit root).  H1: Variables are cointegrated (Residuals of OLS do not include unit root). If test statistics (prob.) of the Engle-Granger cointegration test are lower or equal to 0.05, then the H0 hypothesis is rejected which means that there is causality between variables used in the analysis.
Cointegration tests are applied to analyze the long-term relationship between the main stock exchange index and the activities of foreign investors. Cointegration tests are much more appropriate compared to vector autoregression models because they can explore the dynamic co-movements between variables (Mukherjee & Naka, 1995). Therefore, cointegration tests are applied in the study.

Toda-Yamamoto causality test
Toda & Yamamoto causality test is employed to examine the relationship between variables. Unlike other causality tests, Toda & Yamamoto causality test does not require the stationary situation for variables to be used in the analysis (Dinçer et al., 2020). This is important because using the first difference of variables in the analysis may cause a lack of information and variables may be non-stationary (Tayyar, 2018).
There are two steps in applying the test. In the first step, the unit root test is applied to variables and the maximum cointegration degree (d) is determined. After that, lag lengths (k) are defined. In the second step, "k+dmax" lag formula is applied for estimation (Toda & Yamamoto, 1995).
The hypotheses of the Toda & Yamamoto causality test are expressed as follows:  H0: = 0 and = 0 (there is no causality from Y to X).  H1: ≠ 0 and ≠ 0 (there is causality from Y to X). If test statistics (prob.) of Toda & Yamamoto causality test are lower or equal to 0.05, then the H0 hypothesis is rejected which means that there is causality between variables.

MARS
As a nonparametric regression modeling of high dimensional data to estimate underlying functional relationships between variables, the MARS method is firstly introduced by Friedman (1991). The main advantage of MARS is that this method does not require any pre-assumption although linear model regressions require some pre-assumptions.
There are two-steps in the MARS method. In the first step, the algorithm starts from a constant term that is the mean of the dependent values. In the second step, the piecewise linear segments, known as basis functions (BFs), are iteratively added to the model.
BFs are dependent on spline functions that are defined on a given segment and the end points of the segment are called knots. The forward step finds the potential knots to improve the performance and leads to overfitting. A general MARS model could be formulated as in the equation below (Friedman, 1991): in which Y is the dependent variable and X represents independent variables. denotes the constant term and describes the basis function that is estimated by minimizing the residual sum of squares.
shows the coefficient of n th basis functions (Friedman, 1991). In the backward stepwise stage (pruning stage), it can be eliminated the redundant knots that have the least contribution to the complex model by using Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV). The best model is selected according to the highest coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and the lowest GCV value (Hastie et al., 2009).

Descriptive statistics
Before Covid-19 pandemic times, daily data includes 48 observations from 01.02.2020 and 03.09.2020. On the other side, daily data includes 74 observations that occurred between 03.10.2020 and 06.26.2020 which is related to Covid-19 pandemic times. Figure 2 shows the development of the retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors in Turkey. As Figure 2 presents, the retention share of foreign investors has been decreasing from 65.9% to 52.4%. Besides, there are net selling amounts for all days except for a few days. These two figures imply that foreign investors' activities have not been supporting the XU100 index. Especially, foreign investors have been taking back their investments from Borsa İstanbul since the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic times in Turkey. As a result of this approach, retention share has been decreasing constantly. Table 3 summarizes the descriptive statistics of the variables in both periods. Before Covid-19 pandemic times, the XU100 index is 117,362 on average but it decreased to 103,524 level at the minimum and has reached 123,556 at the maximum. Besides, the retention share of foreign investors is 61% on average. The share decreased to 58.89% at the minimum and reached 65.86% at the maximum. Besides, the net selling amount of foreign investors became TRY 215.9 million on average. On the other hand, in Covid-19 pandemic times, the XU100 index is 100,021 on average but it decreased to 84,246 level at the minimum and increased 115,339 at the maximum. Besides, the retention share of foreign investors is 56.57% on average. The share decreased to 52.37% at the minimum and reached 60.73% at the maximum. Besides, the net selling amount of foreign investors is TRY 234.7 million on average. The descriptive statistics show that the figures for XU100, FSHARE, and NETSELL vary for the period whether Turkey is in the Covid-19 pandemic or not. Table 4 presents the results of the ADF unit root test in both periods. Before Covid-19 pandemic times, the probability values of the XU100 index and retention share of foreign investors are greater than 0.05. Therefore, these variables have a unit root and are non-stationary. On the other hand, the first difference of the variables has probability values that are lower than 0.05 meaning that they are stationary. In other words, the null hypothesis of one unit root against the alternative of stationarity cannot be rejected in levels of variables, but is rejected in their first differences, I (1). Therefore, the first differences of these variables are used in the analysis. Moreover, the net selling amount of foreign investors are stationary at levels. The stationarity condition of all variables is the same for in Covid-19 pandemic times.

Unit root test
Considering the stationarity results of the dataset which present that variables are stationary at different levels, it is decided to apply Toda & Yamamoto causality test. Moreover, MARS analysis is performed to examine the consistency of results.

Engle-Granger cointegration test
In the context of the Engle-Granger cointegration test, the regression model is applied first and the stationarity of residuals is examined secondly. Table 5 shows the results of the unit root test for residuals for the period which is before the Covid-19 pandemic. As can be seen from Table 4, the probability values of the ADF test for residuals are lower than 0.05 which shows that there is a long-term cointegration between the XU100 index and the retention share of foreign investors. Besides, there is a long-term cointegration between the XU100 index and the net selling amount of foreign investors. Therefore, the XU100 index and retention share of foreign investors are cointegrated and move together in the long-run. Similarly, the XU100 index and net selling amount of foreign investors are cointegrated and moved together in the long-run. These findings are similar for both before the Covid-19 pandemic and in Covid-19 pandemic times.

Toda-Yamamoto causality test
In the context of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, maximum cointegration degree (d) and lag lengths (k) are determined firstly and estimation is applied by using "k+dmax" formula. Table 6 shows the results of the lag length determination and maximum cointegration degree. By considering the results in Table 5, the estimation degree is determined as 2 for retention share and as 1 for the net selling amount of foreign investors in the period which is before the Covid-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the estimation degree is determined as 3 for retention share and as 2 for net selling amount of foreign investors in the period which is in the Covid-19 pandemic. Table 7 shows the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the results in Table 6, there is no causality from the retention share of foreign investors and the net selling amount of foreign investors to the XU100 index in both periods. On the other hand, the probability values of the test imply that there is a nexus from the independent variables to the XU100 index at low confidence intervals. Moreover, the probability values of the test prove that there is an increasing role in the index from before the pandemic to the pandemic period. The results are important because the retention share of foreign investors and the net selling amount of foreign investors could be much more influential on the index when they are evaluated with the other indicators that are included in the analysis.

MARS analysis
MARS method creates 4 models and BF1 is determined as the best model based on GCV and R 2 statistics for the period which is before Covid-19 pandemic times. Table 8 presents the details of the variables' importance and Table 9 shows the details of the best model.  According to the best model, the most significant variable on the XU100 index is the retention share of foreign investors in time which is before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Adjusted R 2 of the best MARS model is 0.301 before Covid-19 pandemic times. These results imply that only the variables used in the analysis, which are retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors, explain 30.1% changes in the XU100 index.
On the other hand, MARS creates 17 models and BF2 is selected as the best model based on GCV and R 2 statistics for the period which is in Covid-19 pandemic times. Table 10 presents the details of the variables' importance. Also, Table 11 presents the details of the best model. According to the best model, the most significant variable on the XU100 index is the retention share of foreign investors at the time of the Covid-19 pandemic. This result is also similar to the before Covid-19 pandemic times. However, there is an important difference that the net selling amount of foreign investors affects the XU100 index in the time of the Covid-19 period. Moreover, MARS determines that there are interactions between FSHARE and NETSELL in the time of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The adjusted R2 of the best MARS model is 0.804 in the time of the Covid-19 pandemic. These results imply that only the variables used in the analysis, which are retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors, explain 80.4% changes in the XU100 index.

Discussion and policy implications
In the study, the Engle-Granger cointegration test, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, MARS analysis are performed to examine the changes in the XU100 index by taking into consideration the retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors as independent variables. Engle-Granger cointegration test shows that the XU100 index is cointegrated with retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors in the long-term. However, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test presents that this relationship between the XU100 index and the independent variables is not at the level of causality. Moreover, MARS analysis defines that although the retention share of foreign investors is influential on the XU100 index for the period which is before the Covid-19 pandemic, however, net selling amount of foreign investors is also influential for the period which is in Covid-19 pandemic.
The analysis results define that the XU100 index is affected by the activities of foreign investors before and in Covid-19 pandemic times. The retention share of foreign investors is influential for both periods according to all methods used. This result is consistent with Kartal et al. (2020). Also, the effect of the net selling amount of foreign investors is increased in Covid-19 pandemic times as expected. However, it was not influential on the XU100 index before the Covid-19 pandemic according to the results of MARS. This result is not consistent with Kartal et al. (2020) that who determine that it is effective on the index although its effect is low. Moreover, there is not a causality relationship between the XU100 index and independent variables according to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. When we evaluate all these results obtained from the test, they imply that although the activities of foreign investors affect the XU100 index, these are not the sole and main determinants of the XU100 index. Therefore, other determinants, which are not included in the study, should be taken into consideration to determine how the XU100 index change over before the pandemic and the pandemic periods.
By taking into consideration the analysis results, it could be recommended that the critical barriers in independent variables should not be exceeded. In other words, the retention share of foreign investors should be kept above 53.78%, and the net selling amount of foreign investors should be kept under the TRY 485 million so as not to cause a decreasing effect on the XU100 index. However, this should be not provided by increasing legal barriers and restricting the elbowroom of foreign investors such as prohibiting the short-selling. Instead, the attention of foreign investors should be increased by applying structural reforms like a positive real interest rate instead of a negative real interest rate and foreign portfolio inflows should be steered up in turn. By considering that Turkey is in time of Covid-19, and Turkey has not the capacity to lower the negative effects of global factors, Turkey could focus on macroeconomic and market variables which are mostly under the control of the country.
Also, other policies could be developed and applied by Turkish regulatory authorities. In such a process, the relationship between variables should be considered as MARS analysis shows because there is an interaction between the retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors. Therefore, the outcomes of measures to be taken on XU100 should be predicted before implementation.

Conclusion
The study examines the effects of foreign investors' activities on the main stock exchange indices by using Turkey's data before and in the time of the Covid-19 Pandemic. That is why because emerging countries need foreign financing sources, foreign portfolio investments have significance for these countries, equity investments are one of the important foreign portfolio investment tools to be used, and there is a Covid-19 pandemic since 03.10.2020 in Turkey. In this context, the XU100 index as a dependent variable, and retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors as independent variables are used, presence of Covid-19 pandemic is considered, and daily data between 01.02.2020 and 06.26.2020 (including 122 observations) is analyzed with performing Engle-Granger cointegration test, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and MARS analysis.
As a result of the analysis, the findings reveal that the effects of retention share and net selling amount of foreign investors on the XU100 index vary according to period whether Turkey is in Covid-19 time or not according to the results of MARS. Besides, the power of effects varies according to period. Moreover, the results imply that the Covid-19 pandemic causes the increasing effect of the net selling amount of foreign investors on the XU100 index. On the other hand, there is not a relationship between the index and independent variables at the causality level which is surprising because it is expected that there could be a relationship at the causality level which reflecting a strong effect. Turkey could decrease the outflows of foreign investments from the stock exchange and prevent the underpricing of assets in turn.
In the study, Turkey is examined because there is quite volatile behavior in the XU100 index, retention share, and net selling amount, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. By taking measures to decrease the negative effects, Turkey could attract more foreign portfolio investments. Also, additional analysis for Turkey at the end of the Covid-19 pandemic would contribute to the literature, and new policy proposals could be recommended based on the results of forthcoming studies. On the other hand, including different country groups like Venezuela, Argentina, Ukraine, which have some problems in terms of foreign investments, could help extend current literature. Similar results are expected for these countries and other emerging countries as well. On the other hand, the cointegration