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  Established by Edward L. Youmans

              APPLETONS'
           POPULAR SCIENCE
               MONTHLY

              EDITED BY
         WILLIAM JAY YOUMANS

              VOL. LV

        MAY TO OCTOBER, 1899

              NEW YORK
       D. APPLETON AND COMPANY
                1899




          COPYRIGHT, 1899,
     BY D. APPLETON AND COMPANY.




[Illustration: EDUARD OSCAR SCHMIDT.]




APPLETONS' POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY.

SEPTEMBER, 1899.




ARE WE IN DANGER FROM THE PLAGUE?

BY VICTOR C. VAUGHAN,

PROFESSOR OF HYGIENE IN THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN.


In an article on the plague in this journal, in May, 1897, the writer
answered this question as follows: "Yes, there is danger; but this,
being foreseen, may be easily avoided. Thorough inspection of persons
and disinfection of things from infected districts will keep the
disease out of Europe and America. Only by the most gross carelessness
could the plague be permitted to enter either of these continents."

It will be of interest to take up this subject again, and study it in
the light of the history of the plague since the article referred to
was written. The plague first appeared in western India, at Bombay,
where it still prevails. We are without any exact information
concerning its introduction into that city. Before the outbreak of the
disease at Bombay the mortality had increased so markedly that it was
a subject of discussion for three meetings of the Grant Medical
Society. The increase was attributed to the filthy condition of the
streets. This society made an investigation of the increased
mortality, and presented a report on the same to the municipal
authorities. Instead of heeding the warning, the authorities jeered at
the society, and refused to allow the report to be read.

Dr. Viegas appears to have been the first physician to recognize the
existence of the plague in the city. In a paper read before the Grant
Medical Society on November 24, 1896, he discussed the possible and
probable avenues by which the disease had found its way into the town.
He stated that sugar and dates had been mentioned as means by which
the plague was imported, but, if this had been the case, he thought it
strange that the infection had not been conveyed from Bagdad and
Bassorah, inasmuch as these articles come almost exclusively from
those places. Again, it was thought possible that the clothes of the
sick or of the dead from the plague in China might have been brought
over to Bombay, but Dr. Viegas was unable to find any evidence in
support of this theory. It had also been claimed that rats sick with
the plague had come by ship from Hong Kong, and had infected the rats
about the docks in Bombay. This theory, Dr. Viegas held, was not
supported by any facts. In short, Dr. Viegas found some objection to
every theory that had been proposed, and leaves us in doubt as to his
own views concerning the avenue by which the plague reached Bombay. He
is quite confident, however, that the filthiness of the city is to
blame for the rapidity with which the disease spread.

In a report by Lieutenant-Colonel Weir on the plague in Bombay a
statement is made that the disease was imported from Suez. Early in
September, 1896, four very suspicious deaths were reported, but, as
none of these had been attended by medical men, no definite conclusion
could be reached concerning them. The first case was reported by Dr.
Viegas late in September, 1896. The patient was a native who had not
been out of the city for months. The first case reported among
Europeans occurred on November 12, 1896. During the winter of 1896 and
1897 the disease prevailed most alarmingly, and reached its highest
mortality during the week ending February 9, 1897, when the deaths
from all causes in Bombay numbered 1,891. During the summer of 1897
the disease declined, and led to the belief that the measures that had
been put in operation would prove successful. This hope, however, was
not realized, and during the winter of 1897 and 1898 there was a
recrudescence of the disease. During the summer of 1898 the disease
again abated, to appear with renewed strength during the winter of
1898 and 1899. During the last week in March, 1899, the total number
of deaths from all causes in Bombay reached 2,408, and the deaths from
plague alone numbered more than 250 a day. It will be seen from these
figures that the plague still rages with undiminished virulence in the
capital of western British India. The abatement of the disease during
the summer months and its increased severity during the colder season
are not directly due to the effects of temperature. In the warm season
many of the natives sleep out of doors, while during the colder
weather they crowd into small, unventilated, filthy rooms. It is the
opinion of practically all observers at Bombay that the recrudescence
of the disease during the winter is due to this overcrowding.

Since the plague has prevailed at Bombay for nearly three years, it
may be well to inquire concerning its probable continuance at that
place. In making this inquiry we may learn something of the sanitary
condition of the city and the habits of its inhabitants. Bombay is the
metropolis of western India, and is situated on a long, narrow island
running almost north and south. The city is located near the southern
end of this island, with its harbor to the east and its sewage outfall
to the west. Its population of about nine hundred thousand is a very
mixed one, consisting of Hindoos of different castes, of Mohammedans,
of Eurasians, and of Europeans. Differences in race, in religion, and
in caste make it exceedingly difficult to carry out sanitary measures
and to look after the sick. The mean temperature is about 79 deg. F., and
the relative humidity seventy-seven per cent. A considerable portion
of the island is below high-water level, and consequently the sewage
must be removed by means of pumps. The mean maximum temperature of the
ground eleven feet below the surface is 84.9 deg. F., and the mean minimum
temperature is 80.9 deg. F. It will be seen from these figures that
organic matter must undergo rapid decomposition both on the surface
and in the sewers. The water supply, which is said to be excellent, is
so carelessly drawn upon by the natives that, although sufficiently
abundant if used properly, it sometimes becomes scant. It not
infrequently happens that the sewers will not carry the volume of
water turned into them. For this reason, together with the tropical
rains, the soil often becomes water-logged. Indeed, the surface in
some sections of the city may be, not inappropriately, compared with a
fermenting muck-heap. Besides the fixed population, there is a
constant current of people flowing to and fro between the island and
the mainland. When there is any opportunity for the employment of a
large number of unskilled laborers, hundreds and thousands from the
surrounding country pour into the city. These people know nothing of
sanitary appliances, they lodge in the most densely crowded parts of
the city, and often a dozen of them will hire a single room, not more
than ten feet square, in which they eat and sleep. It is said that
seventy per cent of the inhabitants of Bombay live in "chawls." These
are tenement buildings of from five to seven stories high, built on
the "flat" system. A narrow hall, at the end of which is a latrine,
runs through each story, and from this doors open into rooms eight by
twelve feet in area. In one of these houses from five hundred to eight
hundred people live. These buildings are crowded together, with only
narrow, dark alleys between. Into these alleys the inhabitants of the
houses on both sides throw all kinds of refuse. In many parts of the
city fecal matter is deposited in boxes or baskets, and these, when
filled, are carried on the heads of scavengers to certain designated
places and the contents dumped into the sewers. It may be of interest
to note, in passing, that these scavengers seem to be largely immune
to the plague and all other infectious diseases.

This is a brief description of the sanitary condition of the city into
which the bubonic plague found its way nearly three years ago. How
long is it likely to remain? Before attempting to answer this question
we might ask what means have been employed to eradicate the disease.
On October 6,