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  Established by Edward L. Youmans

              APPLETONS'
           POPULAR SCIENCE
               MONTHLY

              EDITED BY
         WILLIAM JAY YOUMANS

              VOL. LV

        MAY TO OCTOBER, 1899

              NEW YORK
       D. APPLETON AND COMPANY
                1899




          COPYRIGHT, 1899,
     BY D. APPLETON AND COMPANY.




[Illustration: EDUARD OSCAR SCHMIDT.]




APPLETONS' POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY.

SEPTEMBER, 1899.




ARE WE IN DANGER FROM THE PLAGUE?

BY VICTOR C. VAUGHAN,

PROFESSOR OF HYGIENE IN THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN.


In an article on the plague in this journal, in May, 1897, the writer
answered this question as follows: "Yes, there is danger; but this,
being foreseen, may be easily avoided. Thorough inspection of persons
and disinfection of things from infected districts will keep the
disease out of Europe and America. Only by the most gross carelessness
could the plague be permitted to enter either of these continents."

It will be of interest to take up this subject again, and study it in
the light of the history of the plague since the article referred to
was written. The plague first appeared in western India, at Bombay,
where it still prevails. We are without any exact information
concerning its introduction into that city. Before the outbreak of the
disease at Bombay the mortality had increased so markedly that it was
a subject of discussion for three meetings of the Grant Medical
Society. The increase was attributed to the filthy condition of the
streets. This society made an investigation of the increased
mortality, and presented a report on the same to the municipal
authorities. Instead of heeding the warning, the authorities jeered at
the society, and refused to allow the report to be read.

Dr. Viegas appears to have been the first physician to recognize the
existence of the plague in the city. In a paper read before the Grant
Medical Society on November 24, 1896, he discussed the possible and
probable avenues by which the disease had found its way into the town.
He stated that sugar and dates had been mentioned as means by which
the plague was imported, but, if this had been the case, he thought it
strange that the infection had not been conveyed from Bagdad and
Bassorah, inasmuch as these articles come almost exclusively from
those places. Again, it was thought possible that the clothes of the
sick or of the dead from the plague in China might have been brought
over to Bombay, but Dr. Viegas was unable to find any evidence in
support of this theory. It had also been claimed that rats sick with
the plague had come by ship from Hong Kong, and had infected the rats
about the docks in Bombay. This theory, Dr. Viegas held, was not
supported by any facts. In short, Dr. Viegas found some objection to
every theory that had been proposed, and leaves us in doubt as to his
own views concerning the avenue by which the plague reached Bombay. He
is quite confident, however, that the filthiness of the city is to
blame for the rapidity with which the disease spread.

In a report by Lieutenant-Colonel Weir on the plague in Bombay a
statement is made that the disease was imported from Suez. Early in
September, 1896, four very suspicious deaths were reported, but, as
none of these had been attended by medical men, no definite conclusion
could be reached concerning them. The first case was reported by Dr.
Viegas late in September, 1896. The patient was a native who had not
been out of the city for months. The first case reported among
Europeans occurred on November 12, 1896. During the winter of 1896 and
1897 the disease prevailed most alarmingly, and reached its highest
mortality during the week ending February 9, 1897, when the deaths
from all causes in Bombay numbered 1,891. During the summer of 1897
the disease declined, and led to the belief that the measures that had
been put in operation would prove successful. This hope, however, was
not realized, and during the winter of 1897 and 1898 there was a
recrudescence of the disease. During the summer of 1898 the disease
again abated, to appear with renewed strength during the winter of
1898 and 1899. During the last week in March, 1899, the total number
of deaths from all causes in Bombay reached 2,408, and the deaths from
plague alone numbered more than 250 a day. It will be seen from these
figures that the plague still rages with undiminished virulence in the
capital of western British India. The abatement of the disease during
the summer months and its increased severity during the colder season
are not directly due to the effects of temperature. In the warm season
many of the natives sleep out of