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THE BICKERSTAFF-PARTRIDGE PAPERS

by Jonathan Swift


Jonathan Swift, et al. The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers, etc. Annus
Mirabilis




Predictions For The Year 1708


Wherein the month, and day of the month are set down, the persons named,
and the great actions and events of next year particularly related, as
will come to pass.

Written to prevent the people of England from being farther imposed on
by vulgar almanack-makers.

By Isaac Bickerstaff, Esq.


I have long consider'd the gross abuse of astrology in this kingdom, and
upon debating the matter with myself, I could not possibly lay the
fault upon the art, but upon those gross impostors, who set up to be the
artists. I know several learned men have contended that the whole is a
cheat; that it is absurd and ridiculous to imagine, the stars can have
any influence at all upon human actions, thoughts, or inclinations: And
whoever has not bent his studies that way, may be excused for thinking
so, when he sees in how wretched a manner that noble art is treated by
a few mean illiterate traders between us and the stars; who import a
yearly stock of nonsense, lyes, folly, and impertinence, which they
offer to the world as genuine from the planets, tho' they descend from
no greater a height than their own brains.

I intend in a short time to publish a large and rational defence of this
art, and therefore shall say no more in its justification at present,
than that it hath been in all ages defended by many learned men, and
among the rest by Socrates himself, whom I look upon as undoubtedly the
wisest of uninspir'd mortals: To which if we add, that those who have
condemned this art, though otherwise learned, having been such as either
did not apply their studies this way, or at least did not succeed in
their applications; their testimony will not be of much weight to
its disadvantage, since they are liable to the common objection of
condemning what they did not understand.

Nor am I at all offended, or think it an injury to the art, when I see
the common dealers in it, the students in astrology, the philomaths, and
the rest of that tribe, treated by wise men with the utmost scorn and
contempt; but rather wonder, when I observe gentlemen in the country,
rich enough to serve the nation in parliament, poring in Partridge's
almanack, to find out the events of the year at home and abroad; not
daring to propose a hunting-match, till Gadbury or he have fixed the
weather.

I will allow either of the two I have mentioned, or any other of the
fraternity, to be not only astrologers, but conjurers too, if I do not
produce a hundred instances in all their almanacks, to convince any
reasonable man, that they do not so much as understand common grammar
and syntax; that they are not able to spell any word out of the usual
road, nor even in their prefaces write common sense or intelligible
English. Then for their observations and predictions, they are such as
will equally suit any age or country in the world. "This month a certain
great person will be threatened with death or sickness." This the
news-papers will tell them; for there we find at the end of the year,
that no month passes without the death of some person of note; and it
would be hard if it should be otherwise, when there are at least two
thousand persons of not in this kingdom, many of them old, and the
almanack-maker has the liberty of chusing the sickliest season of the
year where he may fix his prediction. Again, "This month an eminent
clergyman will be preferr'd;" of which there may be some hundreds half
of them with one foot in the grave. Then "such a planet in such a house
shews great machinations, plots and conspiracies, that may in time
be brought to light:" After which, if we hear of any discovery, the
astrologer gets the honour; if not, his prediction still stands good.
And at last, "God preserve King William from all his open and secret
enemies, Amen." When if the King should happen to have died, the
astrologer plainly foretold it; otherwise it passes but for the pious
ejaculation of a loyal subject: Though it unluckily happen'd in some of
their almanacks, that poor King William was pray'd for many months after
he was dead, because it fell out that he died about the beginning of the
year.

To mention no more of their impertinent predictions: What have we to
do with their advertisements about pills and drink for the venereal
disease? Or their mutual quarrels in verse and prose of Whig and Tory,
wherewith the stars have little to do?

Having long observed and lamented these, and a hundred other abuses of
this art, too tedious to repeat, I resolved to proceed in a new way,
which I doubt not will be to the general satisfaction of the kingdom:
I can this year produce but a specimen of what I design for the future;
having employ'd most part of my time in adjusting and correcting the
calculations I made some years past, because I would offer nothing to
the world of which I am not as fully satisfied, as that I am now
alive. For these two last years I have not failed in above one or two
particulars, and those of no very great moment. I exactly foretold the
miscarriage at Toulon, with all its particulars; and the loss of Admiral
Shovel, tho' I was mistaken as to the day, placing that accident about
thirty-six hours sooner than it happen'd; but upon reviewing my schemes,
I quickly found the cause of that error. I likewise foretold the Battle
of Almanza to the very day and hour, with the loss on both sides, and
the consequences thereof. All which I shewed to some friends many months
before they happened, that is, I gave them papers sealed up, to open at
such a time, after which they were at liberty to read them; and there
they found my predictions true in every article, except one or two, very
minute.

As for the few following predictions I now offer the world, I forbore
to publish them till I had perused the several almanacks for the year we
are now enter'd on. I find them in all the usual strain, and I beg the
reader will compare their manner with mine: And here I make bold to tell
the world, that I lay the whole credit of my art upon the truth of these
predictions; and I will be content, that Partridge, and the rest of his
clan, may hoot me for a cheat and impostor, if I fail in any singular
particular of moment. I believe, any man who reads this paper, will look
upon me to be at least a person of as much honesty and understanding, as
a common maker of almanacks. I do not lurk in the dark; I am not wholly
unknown in the world; I have set my name at length, to be a mark of
infamy to mankind, if they shall find I deceive them.

In one thing I must desire to be forgiven, that I talk more sparingly of
home-affairs: As it will be imprudence to discover secrets of state, so
it would be dangerous to my person; but in smaller matters, and that are
not of publick consequence, I shall be very free; and the truth of my
conjectures will as much appear from those as the other. As for the most
signal events abroad in France, Flanders, Italy and Spain, I shall
make no scruple to predict them in plain terms: Some of them are of
importance, and I hope I shall seldom mistake the day they will happen;
therefore, I think good to inform the reader, that I all along make use
of the Old Style observed in England, which I desire he will compare
with that of the news-papers, at the time they relate the actions I
mention.

I must add one word more: I know it hath been the opinion of several of
the learned, who think well enough of the true art of astrology, That
the stars do only incline, and not force the actions or wills of men:
And therefore, however I may proceed by right rules, yet I cannot in
prudence so confidently assure the events will follow exactly as I
predict them.

I hope I have maturely considered this objection, which in some cases
is of no little weight. For example: A man may, by the influence of an
over-ruling planet, be disposed or inclined to lust, rage, or avarice,
and yet by the force of reason overcome that bad influence; and this
was the case of Socrates: But as the great events of the world usually
depend upon numbers of men, it cannot be expected they should all unite
to cross their inclinations, from pursuing a general design, wherein
they unanimously agree. Besides the influence of the stars reaches to
many actions and events which are not any way in the power of reason;
as sickness, death, and what we commonly call accidents, with many more,
needless to repeat.

But now it is time to proceed to my predictions, which I have begun to
calculate from the time that the Sun enters into Aries. And this I take
to be properly the beginning of the natural year. I pursue them to the
time that he enters Libra, or somewhat more, which is the busy period of
the year. The remainder I have not yet adjusted, upon account of several
impediments needless here to mention: Besides, I must remind the reader
again, that this is but a specimen of what I design in succeeding years
to treat more at large, if I may have liberty and encouragement.

My first prediction is but a trifle, yet I will mention it, to show
how ignorant those sottish pretenders to astrology are in their own
concerns: It relates to Partridge the almanack-maker; I have consulted
the stars of his nativity by my own rules, and find he will infallibly
die upon the 29th of March next, about eleven at night, of a raging
fever; therefore I advise him to consider of it, and settle his affairs
in time.

The month of April will be observable for the death of many great
persons. On the 4th will die the Cardinal de Noailles, Archbishop of
Paris: On the 11th the young Prince of Asturias, son to the Duke
of Anjou: On the 14th a great peer of this realm will die at his
country-house: On the 19th an old layman of great fame for learning:
and on the 23rd an eminent goldsmith in Lombard-Street. I could mention
others, both at home and abroad, if I did not consider it is of very
little use or instruction to the reader, or to the world.

As to publick affairs: On the 7th of this month there will be an
insurrection in Dauphine, occasion'd by the oppressions of the people,
which will not be quieted in some months.

On the 15th will be a violent storm on the south-east coast of France,
which will destroy many of their ships, and some in the very harbour.

The 19th will be famous for the revolt of a whole province or kingdom,
excepting one city, by which the affairs of a certain prince in the
alliance will take a better face.

May, against common conjectures, will be no very busy month in Europe,
but very signal for the death of the Dauphin, which will happen on
the 7th, after a short fit of sickness, and grievous torments with the
strangury. He dies less lamented by the court than the kingdom.

On the 9th a Mareschal of France will break his leg by a fall from his
horse. I have not been able to discover whether he will then die or not.

On the 11th will begin a most important siege, which the eyes of all
Europe will be upon: I cannot be more particular: for in relating
affairs that so nearly concern the Confederates, and consequently this
Kingdom, I am forced to confine myself, for several reasons very obvious
to the reader.

On the 15th news will arrive of a very surprizing event, than which
nothing could be more unexpected.

On the 19th three noble ladies of this Kingdom will, against all
expectation, prove with child, to the great joy of their husbands.

On the 23rd a famous buffoon of the play-house will die a ridiculous
death, suitable to his vocation.

June. This month will be distinguish'd at home, by the utter dispersing
of those ridiculous deluded enthusiasts, commonly call'd the Prophets;
occasion'd chiefly by seeing the time come that many of their prophecies
should be fulfill'd, and then finding themselves deceiv'd by contrary
events. It is indeed to be admir'd how any deceiver can be so weak, to
foretel things near at hand, when a very few months must of necessity
discover the impostor to all the world; in this point less prudent than
common almanack-makers, who are so wise to wonder in generals, and talk
dubiously, and leave to the reader the business of interpreting.

On the 1st of this month a French general will be killed by a random
shot of a cannon-ball.

On the 6th a fire will break out in the suburbs of Paris, which will
destroy above a thousand houses; and seems to be the foreboding of
what will happen, to the surprize of all Europe, about the end of the
following month.

On the 10th a great battle will be fought, which will begin at four
of the clock in the afternoon; and last till nine at night with great
obstinacy, but no very decisive event. I shall not name the place, for
the reasons aforesaid; but the commanders on each left wing will be
killed.--I see bonfires, and hear the noise of guns for a victory.

On the 14th there will be a false report of the French king's death.

On the 20th Cardinal Portocarero will die of a dysentery, with great
suspicion of poison; but the report of his intention to revolt to King
Charles, will prove false.

July. The 6th of this month a certain general will, by a glorious
action, recover the reputation he lost by former misfortunes.

On the 12th a great commander will die a prisoner in the hands of his
enemies.

On the 14th a shameful discovery will be made of a French Jesuit, giving
poison to a great foreign general; and when he is put to the torture,
will make wonderful discoveries.

In short this will prove a month of great action, if I might have
liberty to relate the particulars.

At home, the death of an old famous senator will happen on the 15th at
his country-house, worn with age and diseases.

But that which will make this month memorable to all posterity, is the
death of the French King, Lewis the fourteenth, after a week's sickness
at Marli, which will happen on the 29th, about six o'clock in the
evening. It seems to be an effect of the gout in his stomach, followed
by a flux. And in three days after Monsieur Chamillard will follow his
master, dying suddenly of an appoplexy.

In this month likewise an ambassador will die in London; but I cannot
assign the day.

August. The affairs of France will seem to suffer no change for a
while under the Duke of Burgundy's administration; but the genius that
animated the whole machine being gone, will be the cause of mighty turns
and revolutions in the following year. The new King makes yet little
change either in the army or the ministry; but the libels against his
grandfather, that fly about his very court, give him uneasiness.

I see an express in mighty haste, with joy and wonder in his looks,
arriving by break of day on the 26th of this month, having travell'd in
three days a prodigious journey by land and sea. In the evening I hear
bells and guns, and see the blazing of a thousand bonfires.

A young admiral of noble birth, does likewise this month gain immortal
honour by a great achievement.

The affairs of Poland are this month entirely settled: Augustus resigns
his pretensions which he had again taken up for some time: Stanislaus is
peaceably possess'd of the throne; and the King of Sweden declares for
the Emperor.

I cannot omit one particular accident here at home; that near the end of
this month much mischief will be done at Bartholomew Fair, by the fall
of a booth.

September. This month begins with a very surprizing fit of frosty
weather, which will last near twelve days.

The Pope having long languish'd last month, the swellings in his legs
breaking, and the flesh mortifying, will die on the 11th instant; and in
three weeks time, after a mighty contest, be succeeded by a cardinal of
the imperial faction, but native of Tuscany, who is now about sixty-one
years old.

The French army acts now wholly on the defensive, strongly fortify'd in
their trenches; and the young French King sends overtures for a treaty
of peace by the Duke of Mantua; which, because it is a matter of state
that concerns us here at home, I shall speak no farther of it.

I shall add but one prediction more, and that in mystical terms, which
shall be included in a verse out of Virgil,

Alter erit jam Tethys, & altera quae vehat Argo. Delectos heroas.

Upon the 25th day of this month, the fulfilling of this prediction will
be manifest to every body.

This is the farthest I have proceeded in my calculations for the present
year. I do not pretend, that these are all the great events which will
happen in this period, but that those I have set down will infallibly
come to pass. It will perhaps still be objected, why I have not spoke
more particularly of affairs at home, or of the success of our armies
abroad, which I might, and could very largely have done; but those in
power have wisely discouraged men from meddling in publick concerns,
and I was resolv'd by no means to give the least offence. This I will
venture to say, That it will be a glorious campaign for the allies,
wherein the English forces, both by sea and land, will have their full
share of honour: That her Majesty Queen Anne will continue in