When the 168 members of the Republican National Committee vote to choose a new chairman Friday, they’ll be selecting more than a political tactician-in-chief. 
 
 At the end of a cycle that left the RNC deeply in debt, battered by charges of financial mismanagement and undercut and overshadowed by a throng of GOP-aligned outside groups, the committee needs a prolific fundraiser who’s also a top administrator and communicator. 
 
 Text Size - 
 
 + 
 
 reset VIDEO: GOP going forward VIDEO: RNC chair candidates POLITICO 44 
 
 No one in the running exactly fits the bill. 
 
 While each of the four party insiders seeking to oust Chairman Michael Steele– who took office less than two years ago with a pledge to give the RNC “something completely different” – brings a unique set of skills, none have the national stature to compete with Steele’s TV-ready style. 
 
 Still, the former Maryland lieutenant governor enters Friday’s voting in a dire position, with a majority of RNC members less inclined to praise Steele than to replace him. Steele has already slipped behind his leading challenger in public vote counts of the RNC race. 
 
 On a tactical level, the race has come down to two questions: How quickly can Steele’s challengers leave him in the dust? And can anyone get a decisive edge if the chairman falters early? 
 
 Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus, a former Steele adviser and RNC general counsel, has support from more than a quarter of the committee – 44 members, according to POLITICO’s running tally. (See Front-runner hits bump in RNC race) 
 
 In contrast, just 24 members of the committee are known to have decided to support Steele for reelection. (See: RNC membership has its rewards) 
 
 That puts the incumbent closer to several of his challengers than to Priebus: Michigan Committeeman Saul Anuzis has 16 known supporters, Missouri GOP Chair Ann Wagner has 14 and longtime operative and Pfizer lobbyist Maria Cino has 12. (See Republican National Committee rivals go easy on Michael Steele) 
 
 Early vote tallies, of course, can be deceptive in a race that will be decided over the course of several secret ballots, with plenty of lobbying and deal-making in between. 
 
 Steele’s biggest problem is that as the incumbent, he likely has less room to grow than any of his challengers. (See: Majority of RNC against Steele) 
 
 “It’s not a function of what your base is,” Anuzis said of the race. “It’s what your cap is.” 
 
 RNC-watchers believe Steele will exceed his public vote count, at least at the start of Friday’s balloting. That’s in large part thanks to tight-lipped committee members from U.S. territories such as Guam and American Samoa, who typically shun the press but are believed to favor Steele. 
 
 Steele is also said to have performed well during a meeting with members on Thursday, and his supporters contend that the chairman’s core backers are so loyal that they can be counted on to stick with him. 
 
 Other observers counter that an incumbent chairman who falls significantly short of the 85-vote mark is likely to have a hard time retaining his votes. 
 
 “He could get to 40 [first-ballot votes.] I don’t think 50 is in the cards for him,” said one Republican watching the RNC race closely. 
 
 That makes it essential for each of his challengers to show positive momentum if Steele, as is widely expected, begins to sink. 
 
 Priebus, who enters the voting viewed as something of a frontrunner, can’t afford to look like he’s stalled out in later ballots. His backers expect that his first-ballot vote total won’t be too far off from the public vote count, putting him somewhere in the low 40s. From there on, the key is to win as quickly as possible. 
 
 “He needs to build on his total, second ballot, and I don’t think it matters too much how much he builds. He just needs to build,” the same Republican observer said, adding of Steele’s other challengers: “I think any of the three of them could finish third, fourth or fifth.” 

 Michael Steele Faces Tough Re-Election Battle 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images 
 
 Michael Steele will find out Friday if he needs to find a new job, as the Republican National Committee meets to elect a chairman to prepare the party for the 2012 presidential election. 
 
 Steele faces four challengers, each promising to reverse fundraising troubles the RNC had during his tenure, and each pledging to avoid the steady stream of controversy that marked Steele's two years as head of the GOP. 
 
 In the wide corridor of a hotel convention complex just outside Washington, Steele seemed relaxed Thursday as he began one final day of campaigning to hang onto his job. 
 
 "You never know how these things go, but the reality is it's going to take a little work," he said. He was polite, but not inclined to handicap his chances with a couple of reporters. "I've gotten out of the prediction business a long time ago," he said. 
 
 Rising Frustration 
 
 But, says Reid Wilson, editor in chief of the National Journal's Hotline, who is following the RNC race closely, the "overwhelming likelihood is that Michael Steele will not be re-elected chairman of the RNC." 
 
 Wilson says Steele's time as RNC chairman was high-profile, but in the wrong way. There were questions about his spending, his travel on private planes, his paid speaking engagements and his troubles raising money. That last item on the list was perhaps his most grievous sin. 
 
 Wilson says the frustration with Steele grew among RNC members; Steele loyalists defected. Steele says GOP successes in November mean he did his job well, but state party officials complained last year about shrinking RNC resources. 
 
 "There was a serious lack of funding here because Michael Steele wasn't able to pull in the same kinds of donations that the RNC has seen in previous years," Wilson said. 
 
 Steele's Rivals 
 
 The RNC has a $15 million debt to pay off even before it starts raising money for next year's elections. The perceived front-runner in the race for the chairman's job is Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus, but he has commitments for only about half of the votes he needs to win. 
 
 Also running is Ann Wagner, a longtime party activist and a former U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg. 
 
 Last year, groups not connected to the national party played a big role in pouring money into congressional elections. But Wagner insists that such outside entities do not diminish the role of the RNC. 
 
 "I still think it is the premier political institution in America and the world, and there are some things it can and must do well, and especially during a presidential cycle year," she said. 
 
 Wagner notes that only the RNC can coordinate with state party organizations, and only it organizes the national presidential nominating convention. 
 
 'Consensus For Change' 
 
 The other two candidates in the mix Friday are former Bush administration official Maria Cino and veteran Michigan Republican Party official Saul Anuzis. 
 
 Under the rules, balloting continues until someone gets half of the votes. There are 168 voting members; 85 votes win. There is no requirement for candidates getting a low number of votes to drop out. Ballot after ballot will be held until there's a winner. 
 
 "I think clearly the first question will be whether we re-elect Steele, but I think there's consensus for change," Anuzis said. "And I think we'll go five or six ballots, and if some of the candidates have strategies to stay in longer, it could go six, seven or eight." 
 
 Hotline's Wilson says this year RNC delegates are looking for a good manager and a great fundraiser, but they may be looking for something else as well. 
 
 "After the last two years of excitement," he says, "boring would be a benefit to a lot of members."
– The Republican National Committee will meet tonight to select its chairman—and pretty much no one is betting on the incumbent. Michael Steele is actually sitting in second place in public tallies right now, behind perceived front-runner Reince Priebus, according to Politico. But as the incumbent, Steele is unlikely to draw new votes throughout the many rounds of balloting. One journalist tells NPR there’s an “overwhelming likelihood” that Steele will be ousted. Priebus—head of the Wisconsin GOP and a former Steele adviser—would likely then remain the favorite, but he’ll have to show momentum throughout the balloting. There’s also an X-factor: Committee rules state that the chair and co-chair must be different genders. There’s only one male co-chair candidate, but if he wins, Missouri GOP chair Ann Wagner and Pfizer lobbyist Maria Cino will suddenly be the only possible chairman choices.