Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump Donald TrumpTrump goes to war against media Romney doing donor outreach for Rubio Green Party's Stein makes pitch to Sanders supporters MORE in Iowa, surging to a 14-point lead, according to a new poll. 
 
 A Monmouth University survey released on Monday found Carson taking 32 percent support in Iowa, followed by Trump at 18 percent. 
 
 That’s a 9-point gain for Carson from the same poll in late August, while Trump has fallen five points in that time. 
 
 The poll found Carson with the best favorability rating in the field, with an astounding 84 percent of Iowa Republicans having a positive view of him, compared to only 7 percent who view him negatively. 
 
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 Trump’s favorability rating is at 53 percent positive and 38 percent negative. His favorability rating is essentially unchanged from late August, although the percentage of those who view him unfavorably has increased by 5 points in that time. 
 
 Trump has led in nearly every poll of Iowa since early August, but the Monmouth survey is the third recent poll to show Carson with a healthy lead over the field in the Hawkeye State. 
 
 A Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll released last week showed Carson with a 9 point lead, and a Quinnipiac University survey found Carson ahead by 8. 
 
 Carson is ahead among all demographic groups in Iowa, according to Monmouth. He leads among Republicans who describe themselves as "somewhat" and "very conservative," as well as self-described moderates. 
 
 Carson also leads among evangelicals, non-evangelicals, men and women in the poll. 
 
 “Trump’s support has eroded in a number of key areas, with the beneficiary being another outside candidate,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “One question is how secure Carson’s new found support really is.” 
 
 Only 19 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers said they have made up their minds on whom to support, giving hope to lower polling candidates. 
 
 Rounding out the field are Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), at 10 percent each, and Jeb Bush at 8 percent. 
 
 Businesswoman Carly Fiorina take 5 percent support in the poll. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is at 3 percent, while Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal and John Kasich each take 2 percent support. 
 
 Outsider candidates such as Trump and Carson, though, appear to have the advantage based on the deep anti-establishment sentiment among likely caucus-goers. Fifty-seven percent said the Republican Party has done a bad job representing their views. 
 
 “While the leader board positions have changed, the outsider candidates still dominate this race,” said Murray. “The GOP’s leadership may hope that an establishment figure will emerge, but that may not happen while their voters remain dissatisfied with the party as a whole.” 
 
 Bush, Kasich, Paul and Christie are the only candidates with negative favorability ratings in Iowa, according to the poll. 
 
 The Monmouth University survey of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Oct. 22-25 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error. 

 By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto, and Fred Backus 
 
 Ben Carson has surpassed Donald Trump and now narrowly leads the Republican field in the race for the nomination in the latest national CBS News/New York Times Poll. 
 
 Twenty-six percent of Republican primary voters back Carson, giving him a four-point edge over Trump (22 percent). Support for Carson has quadrupled since August. 
 
 The rest of the Republican presidential candidates lag far behind in single digits. Marco Rubio is now in third place (eight percent), followed by Jeb Bush (seven percent) and Carly Fiorina (seven percent). All other candidates are at four percent or lower. 
 
 Carson has made gains across many key Republican groups. In a reversal from earlier this month, he is now ahead of Trump among women and is running neck and neck with him among men. Carson's support among evangelicals has risen and he now leads Trump by more than 20 points with this group. 
 
 Carson performs well among conservative Republicans and those who identify as Tea partiers. Trump does well with moderates and leads Carson among those without a college degree - although Trump had a larger advantage with non-college graduates earlier this month. 
 
 But the state of the race can change. Seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is too early to say for sure that their mind is made up about which candidate they will support. This percentage is about what it was at a similar point in the Republican race four years ago. 
 
 While Carson may have moved to the top of the pack, Trump's supporters are more firm in their candidate choice than Carson's. More than half of Trump voters say their minds are made up about which candidate to back, compared to 19 percent who are currently backing Carson. 
 
 Paying Attention to the Campaign 
 
 Forty-three percent of registered voters are now paying a lot of attention to the campaign - similar to earlier this month - but up from 36 percent in September. More are paying a lot of attention now, compared to this point in time in the last two presidential election cycles. 
 
 Republican voters are more likely to be tuning into the campaign than Democrats. 
 
 This poll was conducted by telephone October 21-25, 2015 among a random sample of 1,289 adults nationwide, including 1,136 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. 
 
 The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. 
 
 The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. 
 
 An oversample of registered voters who are Republican was interviewed for a total of 512 interviews with Republican registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the adult population. The margin of error for the Republican registered voters is 7 percentage points. 
 
 The margin of error for the sample of 575 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points. 
 
 This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
– Lindsey Graham is probably still shaking his befuddled head after results from the latest national poll showing who's in the lead for the GOP nomination. This time it's Ben Carson on top, per a CBS News/New York Times poll, showing that the retired neurosurgeon has obviously not taken a significant hit from recent controversial comments about the Holocaust, the Oregon school shooting, and abortion. The poll, which surveyed 1,289 adults (including 1,136 registered voters and 575 voters who can vote in the GOP primary) from Oct. 21-25, shows Carson quadrupled his support since August, CBS notes, now claiming 26% of GOP primary voters to Donald Trump's 22%. Straggling behind these double-digit contenders are Marco Rubio in a faraway third place at 8%, and Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina tied at 7% (everyone else tiptoes in at 4% or under). Where Carson has made the most inroads in recent weeks: among women (where he's now leads Trump) and with more conservative GOPers, such as Tea Partiers, and evangelicals, where CBS says he pulled 20 points ahead of Trump. Trump is still holding his lead with moderate Republicans and people without a college degree, and CBS points out that Trump Nation is much more solid in their candidate than Carson's supporters: More than half say their minds are made up, while only 19% of Carson's supporters are ready to pull the lever. Meanwhile, a third poll out of Iowa, this time from Monmouth University, shows Carson roundly trouncing Trump with a 14-point lead: 32% to 18%, a nine-point gain for Carson and a five-point loss for Trump since late August, per the Hill. Trump, for his part, said Tuesday on MSNBC's Morning Joe that he's curious to see how Carson holds up to new frontrunner scrutiny. (Maybe Iron Mike's endorsement will put Trump back on top.)