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 Credit: Peter Griffin/public domain (Phys.org) —The University of Michigan conducted a poll back in 1992, asking 26,000 men and women over the age of 50 and living in the U.S. what they thought about their chances of living to age 75, was it 10 percent, 50, 100? It was all part of a Health and Retirement survey conducted to shed some light on what people were doing about saving for retirement in light of news that social security might not be the safety net many people have been hoping for. Now, 22 years later, researchers with the Brookings Institute have revisited the answers given by respondents and compared those numbers to how long those people actually did live—to see how well the people back then were able to guess how long they would live. As it turns out, most were wildly pessimistic. 
 
 In looking at the data, the researchers found that the most pessimistic of them all, those who believed they had zero chance of living to 75, were wrong in almost half the cases. On the other end of the extreme, those who were absolutely certain they would live to 75, were good predictors, a little over 78 percent of them were right. The rest fell somewhere in-between. 
 
 Such numbers are important because people are living longer and the population has shifted to the point where there is not enough young people paying into the social security pot to pay for all the retirees at the other end. Thus, people are having to save money on their own, and some, such as the folks at the Brookings Institute are afraid that if people are pessimistic about how long they'll live, they won't save enough should they outlive their expectations. But, they also offer a possible solution. 
 
 Their idea is convince people to buy a longevity annuity—it's a type of investment that pays a certain amount back over a certain number of years, which, as it turns out, is very similar to how social security works—only in this case, it's all private and is based entirely on how much an investor puts in initially. They point out how quickly an investment can grow and how important it is that people take their retirement more seriously. Of course for that to happen, some means will have to be found for convincing people that their chances for living into their old age, is a lot higher than they think. 
 
 Explore further: Survey: Working longer—older Americans' attitudes on work and retirement 
 
 More information: Better Financial Security in Retirement? Realizing the Promise of Longevity Annuities, www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/11/06-retirement-longevity-annuities-abraham-harris 
 
 Abstract 
 
 The shift in the U.S. retirement system away from company pensions and towards individual retirement accounts has placed greater responsibility on workers for ensuring the adequacy of their saving and managing those savings. Absent ready availability of or familiarity with suitable financial instruments, retirees increasingly are self-insuring against a variety of retirement risks, especially the risk of outliving their assets. One alternative to self-insuring against extended longevity is an insurance product known as a "longevity annuity." The essence of a longevity annuity is a fixed stream of payments that begins with a substantial delay from the time the contract is purchased—a longevity annuity purchased at age 60 or 65, for example, might begin payments at age 75, 80 or 85. The current market for longevity annuities faces many barriers, ranging from consumer decision making that does not account adequately for longevity risk to the fiduciary concerns of employers to incomplete markets for the hedging of risk by insurance companies. In this paper, we highlight how recent trends have precipitated a need for products that offer protection against longevity risk, consider whether longevity annuities can improve retirement security, highlight barriers to more widespread take-up of longevity annuities, and offer a menu of potential reforms to bolster this fledgling market. 
 
 

 Abstract 
 
 The shift in the U.S. retirement system away from company pensions and towards individual retirement accounts has placed greater responsibility on workers for ensuring the adequacy of their saving and managing those savings. Absent ready availability of or familiarity with suitable financial instruments, retirees increasingly are self-insuring against a variety of retirement risks, especially the risk of outliving their assets. One alternative to self-insuring against extended longevity is an insurance product known as a “longevity annuity.” The essence of a longevity annuity is a fixed stream of payments that begins with a substantial delay from the time the contract is purchased—a longevity annuity purchased at age 60 or 65, for example, might begin payments at age 75, 80 or 85. The current market for longevity annuities faces many barriers, ranging from consumer decision making that does not account adequately for longevity risk to the fiduciary concerns of employers to incomplete markets for the hedging of risk by insurance companies. In this paper, we highlight how recent trends have precipitated a need for products that offer protection against longevity risk, consider whether longevity annuities can improve retirement security, highlight barriers to more widespread take-up of longevity annuities, and offer a menu of potential reforms to bolster this fledgling market. 
 
 Introduction 
 
 The U.S. private retirement saving system has undergone a major transformation over the past 25 years. The rate of worker participation in defined benefit pension plans is now less than half what it was in 1990 and the share of workers covered solely by a defined contribution plan has doubled over the same period. This shift has given workers more flexibility in how they save for retirement and also greater responsibility for ensuring the adequacy of that saving. In addition, for those at the point of retirement, it has shifted the risks associated with transforming wealth into retirement security from retirement plan sponsors to retirees themselves. Absent ready availability of or familiarity with suitable financial instruments, retirees increasingly are self-insuring against a variety of retirement risks, especially the risk of outliving their assets. 
 
 One option for addressing the risk of extended longevity is to purchase an insurance product known as a “longevity annuity.” The essence of a longevity annuity is that it provides a fixed stream of payments that begins with a substantial delay from the time the contract is purchased at age 60 or 65, with payments not beginning until age 75, 80 or 85. While the market for deferredincome annuities (DIAs) has blossomed in recent years, many DIAs are sold to individuals in their 50s and almost all are sold with deferral periods of less than 15 years. The current market for true longevity annuities remains very thin. 
 
 Although sometimes discussed as financial products, longevity annuities more accurately are characterized as insurance products. A 60 year-old male who purchases a longevity annuity with a 20 year deferral period has only about a 50 percent chance of receiving any payments and the premiums of those in the risk pool who die before reaching the age of first payment support the payments to those who do. This design means that longevity annuities may be better structured to address longevity risk than other financial products. Indeed, theoretical models of the value of longevity annuities show that they can substantially increase retirees’ welfare by offering protection against longevity risk at a much lower cost than strategies predicated on purchase of immediate annuities or gradual decumulation of retirement assets invested in bonds and equities. 
 
 There is a wide gulf, however, between the theoretical benefits offered by longevity annuities and real-world markets. Today’s retirees rarely are offered annuities of any sort, let alone longevity annuities, in their workplace retirement plans, and few Americans choose to purchase annuities either within or outside their employersponsored accounts. The barriers to a more robust market for longevity annuities are diverse, ranging from consumer decision making that does not account adequately for longevity risk to the fiduciary concerns of employers to incomplete markets for the hedging of risk by insurance companies. 
 
 In this paper, we begin by highlighting how recent trends in the retirement security landscape have precipitated a need among middle- to upper-middle income Americans for products that offer protection against longevity risk. Next we examine the market for longevity annuities, considering whether longevity annuities can overcome some of the barriers that have impeded the growth of the market for immediate annuities and whether—and to what extent—longevity annuities can improve retirement security. The paper then addresses potential barriers to the development of a more robust market for longevity annuities and offers a menu of potential reforms to bolster this fledgling market.
– How long do you think you'll live? New research suggests you can tack a few more years on to whatever number you came up with. In 1992, University of Michigan researchers asked 26,000 Americans between the ages of 51 and 61 if they thought they would make it to 75. Some 22 years later, researchers with the Brookings Institution crunched the data and found people tend to underestimate how many years they have left. Of those born between 1931 and 1934, a full 49% who said they wouldn't see 75 were wrong. In fact, almost all that group's respondents, except those who gave themselves 90% or better odds of making it to 75, turned out to have been overly pessimistic, the Wall Street Journal reports. It's more than just an interesting stat: With the dwindling state of Social Security, researchers worry people won't save enough money to cover the possibility that they'll live longer than they expect, Phys.org reports. "Individuals do not fully understand the longevity risk they face," the authors explain. A longevity annuity could be a solution: An individual hands over a chunk of cash and begins receiving payments after a set number of years. The researchers outline what $100,000 spent on an annuity by a 60-year-old male could result in: $1,052 monthly payments beginning at 70, or $2,539 payments if the purchaser waited until 80 to collect. (Your nose may offer a clue to your longevity.)