Photo by David McNew/Getty Images 
 
 Between 2000 and 2010, Hispanics grew from 12.5 percent of the American population to 16.3 percent, a change of more than 30 percent. The Great Recession slowed migration from Mexico and other Spanish-speaking countries, but researchers still project a steady increase in the number of Hispanic residents. By 2050, predicts the Census Bureau, Hispanics will grow to 28 percent of the population, the largest portion of a “majority-minority” America that includes blacks, Asians, Pacific Islanders, and mixed-race people. 
 
 Jamelle Bouie Jamelle Bouie is Slate’s chief political correspondent. 
 
 The projection is sound, but—as I wrote last month—we should temper this prediction of a majority-minority future with an awareness of race and shifting identity. As a category, “Hispanic” includes a range of ethnic and racial backgrounds, from Afro-Brazilians and brown-skinned Puerto Ricans to indigenous Mexicans and Argentinians of largely European descent. 
 
 Assimilation, intermarriage, and upward mobility might lead some Hispanics to identify as “white,” even as they hold to their cultural heritage. And in the same way, society may reciprocate, treating light-skinned, European Hispanics as ethnic whites, akin to Italians and Eastern Europeans. Which would fit the American pattern. 
 
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 One hundred years ago, Italians were considered a separate race of people, distinct from Anglo-Americans in the nation’s racial taxonomy. And fear of their presence sparked violence, discrimination, and strict anti-immigration laws. With time, mobility, and the shared experience of depression and war, however, those Italians began to see themselves as white and mainstream, and in turn, white Americans agreed. 
 
 In fact, new research says that’s happening right now. According to data presented at an annual meeting of the Population Association of America, an estimated 1.2 million Americans changed their racial and ethnic identification from “Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin” on the 2000 census to “white” on the one in 2010. Here’s the Pew Research Center with more: 
 
 The largest number of those who changed their race/ethnicity category were 2.5 million Americans who said they were Hispanic and “some other race” in 2000, but a decade later, told the census they were Hispanic and white, preliminary data showed. Another 1.3 million people made the switch in the other direction. Other large groups of category-changers were more than a million Americans who switched from non-Hispanic white to Hispanic white, or the other way around. 
 
 What’s interesting is that this happened during a decade of rising anti-immigrant sentiment, draconian anti-immigrant laws, and a rising pan-Latino identity, which seem to stand as countervailing forces. 
 
 To be clear, as Nate Cohn notes for the New York Times, “White identification is not necessarily a sign that Hispanics consider themselves white. Many or even most might identify their race as “Hispanic” if it were an explicit option.” At the same time, this change reflects growing assimilation among a group of Hispanics, who—as Cohn writes—“are likelier to be second- and third-generation Hispanics than foreign-born and noncitizen Hispanics” and have higher incomes and more education. 
 
 Intermarriage will of course play a role in shaping identity. Already, intermarriage is most common among whites and Hispanics. The children of those unions could see themselves as white and Hispanic, simply Hispanic, or simply white. 

 Hispanics are often described as driving up the nonwhite share of the population. But a new study of census forms finds that more Hispanics are identifying as white. 
 
 An estimated net 1.2 million Americans of the 35 million Americans identified in 2000 as of “Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin,” as the census form puts it, changed their race from “some other race” to “white” between the 2000 and 2010 censuses, according to research presented at an annual meeting of the Population Association of America and reported by Pew Research. 
 
 The researchers, who have not yet published their findings, compared individual census forms from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. They found that millions of Americans answered the census questions about race and ethnicity differently in 2000 and 2010. The largest shifts were among Americans of Hispanic origin, who are the nation’s fastest growing ethnic group by total numbers. 
 
 Race is an immutable characteristic for many white, black and Asian-Americans. It is less clear for Americans of Hispanic origin. The census form asks two questions about race and ethnicity: one about whether individuals are of Hispanic or Latino origin, and another about race. “Hispanics” do not constitute a race, according to the census, and so 37 percent of Hispanics, presumably dissatisfied with options like “white” or “black,” selected “some other race.” 
 
 The researchers found that 2.5 million Americans of Hispanic origin, or approximately 7 percent of the 35 million Americans of Hispanic origin in 2000, changed their race from “some other race” in 2000 to “white” in 2010. An additional 1.3 million people switched in the other direction. A noteworthy but unspecified share of the change came from children who weren’t old enough to fill out a form in 2000, but chose for themselves in 2010. 
 
 The data provide new evidence consistent with the theory that Hispanics may assimilate as white Americans, like the Italians or Irish, who were not universally considered to be white. It is particularly significant that the shift toward white identification withstood a decade of debate over immigration and the country’s exploding Hispanic population, which might have been expected to inculcate or reinforce a sense of Hispanic identity, or draw attention to divisions that remain between Hispanics and non-Hispanic white Americans. Research suggests that Hispanics who have experienced discrimination are less likely to identify as white. 
 
 The data also call into question whether America is destined to become a so-called minority-majority nation, where whites represent a minority of the nation’s population. Those projections assume that Hispanics aren’t white, but if Hispanics ultimately identify as white Americans, then whites will remain the majority for the foreseeable future. 
 
 White identification is not necessarily a sign that Hispanics consider themselves white. Many or even most might identify their race as “Hispanic” if it were an explicit option. But white identification may still be an indicator of assimilation. White identifiers are likelier to be second- and third-generation Hispanics than foreign-born and noncitizen Hispanics. They also have higher levels of education and income. The researchers’ data did not show the country of origin of the families of those people who shifted their identification. 
 
 The results are a strong sign that fears of a unique “Hispanic challenge,” where Hispanics immigrants might remain as a permanent Spanish-speaking underclass, are overblown. 
 
 In that regard, the census numbers are not new: There is mounting evidence that Hispanics are succeeding in American society at a pace similar to that of prior waves of European immigrants. 

 Millions of Americans counted in the 2000 census changed their race or Hispanic-origin categories when they filled out their 2010 census forms, according to new research presented at the annual Population Association of America meeting last week. Hispanics, Americans of mixed race, American Indians and Pacific Islanders were among those most likely to check different boxes from one census to the next. 
 
 The researchers, who included university and government population scientists, analyzed census forms for 168 million Americans, and found that more than 10 million of them checked different race or Hispanic-origin boxes in the 2010 census than they had in the 2000 count. Smaller-scale studies have shown that people sometimes change the way they describe their race or Hispanic identity, but the new research is the first to use data from the census of all Americans to look at how these selections may vary on a wide scale. 
 
 “Do Americans change their race? Yes, millions do,” said study co-author Carolyn A. Liebler, a University of Minnesota sociologist who worked with Census Bureau researchers. “And this varies by group.” 
 
 Why? There are many possibilities, although the researchers did not present any hard conclusions. By some measures, the data provide more evidence of Americans’ puzzlement about how the census asks separately about race and ethnicity. (The Census Bureau is considering revising its race and ethnicity questions for the next census, in 2020, in hopes of matching better how Americans think about this topic.) But there could be other reasons, too, such as evolving self-identity or benefits associated with being identified with some groups. 
 
 The Census Bureau granted the researchers restricted access to confidential data in return for a legally binding promise that they would not reveal details of any individual responses, and they produced their estimates by matching 2000 and 2010 census forms for the same people. Though they were able to analyze data for more than half the U.S population (and most of the 281 million counted in 2000), the amount of category-changing might be even higher in the total population, they said. 
 
 People of every race or ethnicity group altered their categories on the census form, but some groups had more turnover than others. Relatively few people who called themselves non-Hispanic white, black or Asian in 2000 changed their category in 2010, Liebler said. Responses by Hispanics dominated the total change, she said, but there was major turnover within some smaller race groups as well. 
 
 The largest number of those who changed their race/ethnicity category were 2.5 million Americans who said they were Hispanic and “some other race” in 2000, but a decade later, told the census they were Hispanic and white, preliminary data showed. Another 1.3 million people made the switch in the other direction. Other large groups of category-changers were more than a million Americans who switched from non-Hispanic white to Hispanic white, or the other way around. 
 
 Hispanics account for most of the growing number and share of Americans who check “some other race” on the census form. Many do not identify with a specific racial group or think of Hispanic as a race, even though it is an ethnicity in the federal statistical system. Census officials added new instructions on the 2010 census form stating that Hispanic ethnicity is not a race in an attempt to persuade people to choose a specific group. (That change, as well as other wording edits in the instructions to respondents between 2000 and 2010 may be one reason some people switched. The order of the questions and the offered categories did not change.) The Census Bureau is also testing a new race and Hispanic question that combines all the options in one place, rather than asking separately about race and Hispanic origin. 
 
 More than 775,000 switched in one direction or the other between white and American Indian or only white, according to preliminary data. A separate paper presented at the conference reported “remarkable turnover” from 2000 to 2010 among those describing themselves as American Indian. Ever since 1960, the number of American Indians has risen more rapidly than could be accounted for by births or immigration. 
 
 There also was considerable change within a decade’s time among some smaller race groups. For example, only one-third of Americans who checked more than one race in 2000 kept the same categories in 2010, according to preliminary data. Only two-thirds of non-Hispanic single-race Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders kept the same categories. 
 
 Previous research on people’s racial self-identification has found that they may change categories for many reasons, said demographer Sharon Lee of the University of Victoria in Canada, at the population conference. The question mode—whether people are asked in person, on a paper form, on the phone or online—makes a difference. Some people may change their category after they find out they had an ancestor of a different race, she said. Or they may decide there are benefits (such as priority in college admissions) to including themselves in a certain group. 
 
 Some category-changers were children in 2000 whose race was filled in by their parents, but by 2010 were old enough to choose for themselves, which may account for some of the change. Children in some groups in 2000—for example, white and black—were especially likely to be recorded in a different category in 2010, Liebler said. (Although she did not mention President Barack Obama, he chose to check only “black” on his 2010 census form, even though his mother was white and father black.) 
 
 Lee and Liebler said researchers need to account for the amount of change in people’s racial and Hispanic self-description in their work, but Lee cautioned that they should not overreact. “There is not a trivial amount of change,” she said, “but it’s not across every group.” 
 
 The analysis was done under a Census Bureau program to allow limited access to its confidential data for specific studies of important issues by outside researchers who agree not to reveal any personally identifying information about individuals. In this case, researchers did not have access to individual names, dates of birth or other personal information, because each person’s linked 2000 and 2010 forms were identified by a numerical code called a “personal identification key.” 
 
 The researchers only included in their analysis people living in households where someone in the family filled in their race or Hispanic origin. They excluded people whose details were supplied by neighbors or imputed by the Census Bureau, and those living in group quarters, such as college dormitories or prisons. They also dropped anyone who checked “some other race” and an additional race in 2000, because that category had an unusual amount of processing error. The researchers said the people they matched were not nationally representative. 
 
 Topics: U.S. Census, Race and Ethnicity
– The racial make-up of America is changing—even among individual Americans. Census forms reveal that a larger proportion of Americans of Hispanic origin are declaring themselves to be white, for a net shift of 1.2 million between 2000 and 2010, the New York Times finds. Some 2.5 million people who identified themselves as of "Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin" in 2000 listed their race as "some other race" that year and "white" a decade later, while 1.3 million changed their race in the other direction. A total of 10 million more Americans checked different race or Hispanic-origin boxes in the 2010 census than they had in the 2000 count, according to the Pew Research Center, which notes that people too young to have filled out the form themselves in 2000 account for much of the change. But "becoming white" is nothing new in American history: Irish and Italian immigrants were originally considered non-white, and Benjamin Franklin once declared Swedes, Russians, and even non-Saxon Germans to have a too "swarthy complexion" to be considered white. As happened with earlier groups of immigrants, "assimilation, intermarriage, and upward mobility" appear to be driving the shift among Hispanics, writes Jamelle Bouie at Slate.