October 22, 2015 - Carson Tops Trump In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Tied In Sixth Place With 5 Percent 
 
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 With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 - 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 
 
 
 
 
 
 This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Carson tops Trump 33 - 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Trump tops the "no way" list as 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say they "would definitely not support" him for the GOP nomination. Bush is next on this "no way" list with 21 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 For 28 percent of Republican Caucus-goers a candidate who shares their values is most important, while 23 percent most want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Carson shares their values, 84 percent of Republicans say, and 89 percent say he is honest and trustworthy, topping the GOP field for both qualities. 
 
 
 
 
 
 "It's Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 
 
 
 
 
 
 "As they've been pondering for six months, many in the political world still are trying to understand Carson's appeal and how someone who seems to be operating outside the traditional news media/political environment is doing so well among the most conservative GOP voters." 
 
 
 
 
 
 "Today's results show his appeal is especially strong among the state's sizeable white, evangelical Christian community, among whom Carson is receiving 36 percent, twice Trump's 17 percent," Brown added. 
 
 
 
 
 
 "Those who know Carson seem to like him. He has an almost unheard of 84 - 10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican Caucus-goers, compared to Trump's 53 - 43 percent rating. To borrow the line from Madison Avenue, 'Almost no one doesn't like Ben Carson.'" 
 
 
 
 
 
 Carson cares about their needs and problems, 87 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say, the highest mark among any GOP candidate. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Trump gets the highest mark for strong leadership qualities, 80 percent, to Carson's 76 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Bush has the right kind of experience to be president, 76 percent of Republicans say, topping Cruz at 70 percent, Rubio at 69 percent, Carson at 57 percent, and Trump at 56 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Iowa likely Republican Caucus-goers give Carson an 84 - 10 percent favorability rating, leading Rubio at 70 - 15 percent, Cruz at 65 - 18 percent and Trump at 53 - 43 percent. Bush has a negative 43 - 51 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Looking at which candidate can best handle different issues, Carson leads in only one area, as 31 percent of Republicans say he can best handle social issues. On handling other issues: 
 
 Trump tops Carson 41 - 12 percent on the economy; 
 
 Trump over Carson 32 - 13 percent on taxes; 
 
 Trump tops Carson 37 - 9 percent on illegal immigration; 
 
 Rubio and Trump are close at 18 - 17 percent, respectively, on foreign policy, with Carson at 9 percent. 
 
 From October 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 574 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. 
 
 
 
 
 
 The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. 
 
 
 
 
 
 For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 
 
 
 
 
 
 1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 5% - 3% 3% 3% 9% 4% 5% Carson 28 32 36 32 27 23 25 33 Christie 1 - 2 - 1 4 1 3 Cruz 10 21 13 18 7 1 11 9 Fiorina 5 6 5 5 7 4 5 6 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - Huckabee 2 - 3 2 2 1 2 1 Jindal 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 4 Kasich 3 - 2 1 2 7 4 1 Pataki - - - - - 1 - - Paul 6 8 2 3 5 13 7 5 Rubio 13 9 9 13 17 10 12 15 Santorum 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 Trump 20 20 17 16 23 22 24 13 DK/NA 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 7% 3% 4% 2% 5% 8% 5% 3% 4% 6% Carson 23 31 26 24 34 27 26 32 36 14 Christie 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 Cruz 11 10 12 7 13 7 9 15 8 9 Fiorina 8 4 5 5 5 8 9 4 5 6 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 1 2 1 3 2 - 4 2 1 2 Jindal 3 2 - 4 4 1 3 2 3 2 Kasich 5 2 6 2 1 2 3 - 3 4 Pataki 1 - - - 1 - - - - - Paul 4 7 13 7 2 1 3 9 7 7 Rubio 17 11 13 17 11 12 7 11 12 21 Santorum - 1 - 2 1 1 2 2 - 1 Trump 12 24 18 22 17 26 25 14 18 23 DK/NA 4 2 2 2 2 5 4 5 1 3 MOST IMPORTANT FOR REP PRES NOMINEE Q55 Shares Strong Honest/ Values Leader CanWin Trustworthy Bush 1% 6% 8% 3% Carson 27 18 32 40 Christie 1 2 2 - Cruz 22 6 3 10 Fiorina 5 7 9 5 Gilmore - - - - Graham - - 1 - Huckabee 1 1 2 2 Jindal 1 3 1 5 Kasich 1 1 6 1 Pataki - - 1 1 Paul 11 5 1 5 Rubio 13 15 20 8 Santorum 1 - - 2 Trump 15 35 13 15 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 
 
 2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 21% 35% 23% 27% 13% 22% 23% 19% Carson 4 1 3 2 2 7 5 1 Christie 14 24 15 19 7 12 14 14 Cruz 7 4 6 5 4 15 8 7 Fiorina 8 7 9 9 3 10 9 6 Gilmore 8 12 8 10 4 8 8 7 Graham 15 32 13 19 11 12 17 11 Huckabee 9 11 6 7 4 17 9 9 Jindal 7 6 6 5 5 11 8 5 Kasich 9 12 11 14 3 6 10 7 Pataki 10 17 10 13 5 8 10 8 Paul 10 9 11 11 7 11 10 10 Rubio 5 8 5 6 2 7 6 3 Santorum 10 12 8 10 3 15 9 11 Trump 30 18 31 24 27 45 28 35 No/No one 30 33 30 30 40 20 32 27 DK/NA 5 1 5 4 8 3 3 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 18% 23% 20% 19% 24% 22% 18% 29% 16% 22% Carson 5 3 4 4 3 4 8 - 4 3 Christie 13 14 9 19 15 10 4 20 10 19 Cruz 9 7 8 7 7 10 7 7 8 7 Fiorina 6 9 7 8 6 10 7 13 5 8 Gilmore 7 8 4 7 7 13 6 14 5 8 Graham 12 17 6 23 17 12 11 17 15 19 Huckabee 10 8 2 11 12 10 3 11 11 9 Jindal 7 7 4 9 6 7 5 9 5 8 Kasich 8 9 3 10 13 9 3 10 10 11 Pataki 9 10 4 9 12 15 9 15 7 9 Paul 10 9 2 9 12 19 8 9 10 11 Rubio 5 5 1 6 6 4 5 6 3 6 Santorum 10 10 10 11 9 9 9 14 7 12 Trump 41 25 44 31 26 20 33 29 32 32 No/No one 30 31 18 35 31 39 40 28 30 29 DK/NA 4 5 6 2 5 6 1 5 5 5 
 
 Q5-19. Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS........... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrdEn REF NetFav Carson 84 10 6 - 74 Rubio 70 15 14 - 55 Cruz 65 18 16 1 47 Fiorina 61 18 21 - 43 Jindal 59 16 24 1 43 Huckabee 63 29 8 1 34 Santorum 50 32 17 1 18 Trump 53 43 3 2 10 Kasich 28 25 46 1 3 Paul 45 43 11 1 2 Bush 43 51 5 1 -8 Gilmore 3 14 82 - -11 Christie 36 52 11 1 -16 Pataki 9 28 62 - -19 Graham 18 47 34 - -29 
 
 5. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 43% 28% 40% 39% 45% 47% 41% 46% Unfavorable 51 67 51 55 45 49 55 45 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 6 4 9 4 4 8 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 2 - 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 54% 36% 34% 40% 46% 52% 38% 32% 46% 50% Unfavorable 40 57 59 55 47 40 48 65 45 49 Hvn't hrd enough 3 6 6 4 4 7 10 3 7 1 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 - 2 - 
 
 6. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 84% 92% 87% 93% 84% 68% 81% 89% Unfavorable 10 - 6 4 5 24 12 6 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 7 3 10 8 6 6 REFUSED - 1 - - - - - - COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 81% 85% 73% 82% 89% 92% 74% 85% 84% 85% Unfavorable 13 9 18 10 6 5 16 10 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 8 8 5 2 10 4 9 5 REFUSED - - - - - 1 - 1 - - 
 
 7. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 36% 20% 30% 32% 38% 41% 34% 40% Unfavorable 52 72 53 58 42 51 55 45 Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 15 9 18 7 9 14 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 46% 31% 29% 37% 37% 49% 33% 35% 39% 40% Unfavorable 43 57 56 54 52 39 47 56 49 49 Hvn't hrd enough 9 11 15 8 7 10 18 9 11 9 REFUSED 2 1 - 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 
 
 8. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 65% 90% 72% 82% 68% 32% 70% 57% Unfavorable 18 1 11 7 13 39 19 15 Hvn't hrd enough 16 7 16 10 18 27 10 27 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 2 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 61% 67% 54% 60% 72% 74% 67% 56% 68% 62% Unfavorable 22 15 21 20 15 17 17 21 14 25 Hvn't hrd enough 16 17 25 18 12 8 16 20 18 13 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 - 3 - 1 
 
 9. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 61% 70% 57% 68% 61% 48% 62% 58% Unfavorable 18 15 17 16 14 25 20 16 Hvn't hrd enough 21 14 25 15 25 27 18 26 REFUSED - - - 1 - - - 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 68% 57% 43% 65% 67% 72% 64% 58% 62% 64% Unfavorable 17 18 22 18 15 14 13 22 15 17 Hvn't hrd enough 14 24 35 17 17 12 21 19 23 19 REFUSED 1 - - - - 2 1 1 - - 
 
 10. Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 3% 8% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 2% Unfavorable 14 18 12 19 9 11 17 9 Hvn't hrd enough 82 75 85 77 88 86 79 89 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - 1 - COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 5% 2% 3% 7% 1% 2% 8% 3% 2% 3% Unfavorable 12 15 8 15 16 18 10 17 12 16 Hvn't hrd enough 82 83 89 79 81 79 82 80 85 80 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 - - - 1 1 
 
 11. Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 18% 9% 20% 17% 17% 21% 18% 20% Unfavorable 47 64 42 53 44 37 52 38 Hvn't hrd enough 34 26 38 30 37 41 30 42 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 24% 16% 14% 18% 18% 25% 19% 11% 19% 22% Unfavorable 43 48 30 56 52 47 37 56 45 47 Hvn't hrd enough 32 36 55 26 29 27 43 33 36 31 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 1 - 1 1 - 
 
 12. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 63% 77% 74% 74% 71% 33% 63% 61% Unfavorable 29 18 15 18 23 52 30 26 Hvn't hrd enough 8 3 9 7 5 13 5 12 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 59% 65% 54% 60% 65% 70% 64% 55% 61% 63% Unfavorable 35 25 35 28 28 25 24 35 28 33 Hvn't hrd enough 6 9 9 11 6 4 10 10 10 2 REFUSED - 1 2 1 - 1 3 - - 2 
 
 13. Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 59% 79% 65% 72% 64% 32% 62% 54% Unfavorable 16 8 13 10 13 32 18 14 Hvn't hrd enough 24 11 21 17 24 35 19 32 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 - - - 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 62% 58% 34% 68% 68% 65% 62% 54% 64% 54% Unfavorable 19 15 23 16 14 16 12 17 16 18 Hvn't hrd enough 18 27 43 17 17 17 25 27 20 28 REFUSED 1 1 - - - 2 1 1 - - 
 
 14. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 28% 32% 23% 30% 27% 27% 30% 26% Unfavorable 25 36 22 31 19 19 27 20 Hvn't hrd enough 46 31 53 38 53 53 42 52 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 - 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 37% 24% 15% 28% 29% 44% 20% 23% 28% 36% Unfavorable 21 26 19 26 29 24 23 25 23 28 Hvn't hrd enough 42 48 65 44 40 32 55 50 49 35 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 - - 
 
 15. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 12% 12% 4% Unfavorable 28 42 25 38 20 22 32 22 Hvn't hrd enough 62 48 66 54 73 65 56 73 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 11% 8% 4% 14% 7% 12% 11% 9% 8% 11% Unfavorable 26 30 10 30 36 37 25 36 24 29 Hvn't hrd enough 62 62 86 56 57 50 64 55 68 59 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - - 
 
 16. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 45% 51% 41% 41% 44% 50% 46% 42% Unfavorable 43 38 45 49 39 39 43 45 Hvn't hrd enough 11 10 13 9 16 9 10 13 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 2 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 44% 45% 54% 52% 40% 28% 48% 43% 45% 51% Unfavorable 43 43 34 37 46 61 37 45 41 41 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 11 11 12 11 15 13 13 5 REFUSED 3 - 1 1 2 1 - - 1 3 
 
 17. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 70% 72% 67% 76% 73% 58% 71% 69% Unfavorable 15 16 13 15 8 25 16 14 Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 20 10 19 17 13 17 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - - COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 75% 67% 60% 70% 76% 76% 65% 64% 74% 74% Unfavorable 13 17 17 16 12 13 11 20 12 17 Hvn't hrd enough 11 16 23 13 11 10 23 16 13 8 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 - - - - 1 
 
 18. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 50% 65% 61% 66% 52% 22% 50% 50% Unfavorable 32 21 19 20 27 55 32 30 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 19 14 20 21 17 19 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 2 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 47% 52% 40% 53% 51% 57% 49% 54% 50% 50% Unfavorable 40 27 36 31 30 29 27 31 31 35 Hvn't hrd enough 12 20 24 15 17 14 24 13 19 15 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 2 - - 2 1 1 
 
 19. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Favorable 53% 59% 51% 54% 63% 40% 56% 46% Unfavorable 43 34 43 39 36 57 40 47 Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 4 4 1 1 1 5 REFUSED 2 3 2 3 - 2 2 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Favorable 40% 59% 33% 57% 59% 63% 45% 51% 54% 52% Unfavorable 56 37 63 41 36 31 47 45 42 44 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 1 2 3 3 5 2 3 2 REFUSED 1 2 3 - 1 3 3 1 1 1 
 
 20. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - the economy? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 5% 1% 5% 4% 5% 8% 4% 8% Carson 12 11 16 14 10 11 9 16 Christie 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 Cruz 8 19 11 15 4 1 8 7 Fiorina 8 6 9 8 8 6 7 9 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - Huckabee - - - - - - - - Jindal 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 Kasich 4 1 3 1 3 8 5 1 Pataki - - - - - - - - Paul 6 10 3 4 6 11 7 5 Rubio 6 4 6 7 8 3 5 6 Santorum - - 1 - 1 - - 1 Trump 41 41 37 39 46 37 43 36 DK/NA 8 5 8 5 7 13 8 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 9% 3% 1% 3% 8% 9% 2% 5% 7% 4% Carson 10 13 20 9 11 9 15 9 15 6 Christie 2 1 3 1 - 2 - 3 1 2 Cruz 5 10 7 7 10 8 7 8 8 7 Fiorina 12 5 6 12 6 7 9 8 5 11 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee - - - - - - 1 - - - Jindal 1 1 - 2 2 1 4 2 - 1 Kasich 6 2 6 4 2 3 4 1 3 6 Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 3 8 17 4 3 1 3 9 7 6 Rubio 7 5 6 6 4 8 5 6 4 9 Santorum - - - - 1 - - 2 - - Trump 33 44 25 45 44 47 41 37 43 39 DK/NA 11 6 11 7 8 5 8 10 8 8 
 
 21. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - foreign policy? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 8% 2% 5% 6% 7% 12% 8% 7% Carson 9 11 13 9 9 10 9 9 Christie 2 1 1 - 2 3 1 3 Cruz 11 26 14 21 7 1 11 11 Fiorina 6 6 8 6 7 4 3 11 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham 3 1 3 2 2 5 3 2 Huckabee 2 1 4 2 3 1 2 2 Jindal 3 3 4 3 4 - 3 2 Kasich 2 2 1 1 4 3 3 - Pataki - - - - - 1 - - Paul 5 5 2 1 4 15 6 4 Rubio 18 13 13 19 19 15 17 19 Santorum 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 Trump 17 19 15 18 18 15 20 13 DK/NA 13 9 15 12 13 16 12 15 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 11% 6% 8% 5% 10% 12% 4% 5% 8% 12% Carson 8 9 15 6 7 9 7 10 11 5 Christie 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 Cruz 9 13 7 10 15 12 12 13 10 10 Fiorina 7 6 9 3 5 8 11 8 5 3 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham 7 - 3 3 2 2 1 2 4 3 Huckabee 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 Jindal 3 2 4 2 3 - 7 1 2 2 Kasich 3 2 1 5 1 1 2 - 1 6 Pataki 1 - - - 1 - - - - - Paul 1 8 15 6 1 - 6 10 5 5 Rubio 19 17 10 22 20 17 10 17 19 20 Santorum 1 1 1 - 2 - - 1 1 1 Trump 9 21 14 19 14 24 24 12 16 18 DK/NA 18 10 10 15 13 11 12 17 13 11 
 
 22. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - illegal immigration? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 5% 1% 4% 4% 3% 10% 5% 6% Carson 9 7 12 8 8 13 8 10 Christie 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 2 Cruz 14 30 19 23 9 3 15 13 Fiorina 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - 1 - 1 Huckabee 1 1 2 1 2 - 2 - Jindal 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 Kasich 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - Pataki - 2 - - - 1 1 - Paul 5 6 2 1 5 11 5 4 Rubio 15 4 15 15 15 16 14 18 Santorum - - - 1 - - - - Trump 37 41 34 36 44 32 40 33 DK/NA 8 6 8 8 9 9 8 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 10% 3% 5% 4% 6% 8% 6% 1% 5% 8% Carson 9 9 14 4 11 8 17 12 9 3 Christie 1 - - 1 2 - - 1 1 1 Cruz 14 14 9 14 19 12 16 14 11 17 Fiorina 2 - - 1 1 1 - - - 2 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham 1 - - - - - - - 1 - Huckabee - 1 - 2 1 - 1 - 1 1 Jindal 2 2 - 4 2 - 2 4 4 - Kasich 1 1 1 1 - - - - - 2 Pataki - - - 1 - - 2 - - - Paul 2 6 12 4 2 - 3 8 3 5 Rubio 21 12 17 15 14 17 13 15 15 18 Santorum - - - 1 - - 2 - - - Trump 26 43 31 38 37 47 35 31 42 34 DK/NA 11 7 11 9 5 6 4 13 7 9 
 
 23. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 3% - 3% 2% 2% 7% 4% 3% Carson 31 37 35 37 32 22 29 35 Christie 1 - 1 - 1 3 1 2 Cruz 13 24 18 20 12 1 14 10 Fiorina 8 5 7 7 9 6 6 10 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - Huckabee 5 4 9 7 8 1 6 4 Jindal 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 Kasich 2 - 1 1 1 6 3 - Pataki - - - - - 1 - - Paul 6 6 2 2 4 15 6 5 Rubio 9 7 7 9 10 7 8 10 Santorum 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 Trump 11 11 9 7 10 15 13 7 DK/NA 7 2 5 4 7 11 6 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 5% 3% 1% 3% 4% 6% 2% 6% 2% 4% Carson 27 33 33 28 33 31 25 32 36 28 Christie 2 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 1 2 Cruz 9 14 12 10 15 12 16 11 11 12 Fiorina 9 7 13 5 5 8 9 8 5 11 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 9 4 5 5 4 8 4 3 7 5 Jindal 4 2 - 4 5 - 3 1 3 3 Kasich 3 1 5 2 1 1 3 - 2 3 Pataki 1 - - 1 1 - - - - 1 Paul 4 7 10 9 2 - 3 10 6 7 Rubio 10 8 8 11 8 7 13 8 9 6 Santorum 1 2 - 3 2 1 2 4 - 2 Trump 5 13 6 11 12 16 15 7 11 9 DK/NA 10 6 6 6 8 7 4 8 7 9 
 
 24. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - taxes? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 7% 3% 6% 5% 5% 11% 6% 8% Carson 13 15 20 14 17 7 11 17 Christie 1 - - - 1 2 1 1 Cruz 10 23 12 18 7 1 11 9 Fiorina 3 2 5 4 2 3 2 5 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - Huckabee 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 Jindal 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 Kasich 3 1 3 2 3 7 5 1 Pataki - - - - - 1 - - Paul 9 12 4 4 11 15 11 5 Rubio 6 3 4 8 5 4 5 8 Santorum 1 - - 1 - 1 - 2 Trump 32 32 30 30 36 29 34 28 DK/NA 10 5 11 9 8 13 9 11 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Bush 10% 5% 5% 3% 10% 10% 2% 5% 8% 7% Carson 11 14 18 10 14 11 17 12 16 10 Christie 2 - 1 1 - 2 - 1 - 2 Cruz 10 10 7 10 15 6 9 15 9 8 Fiorina 5 2 2 4 3 6 5 5 2 4 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 3 2 3 2 2 1 4 - 2 2 Jindal 4 3 - 4 5 2 4 4 4 2 Kasich 5 3 6 3 2 3 4 - 4 6 Pataki 1 - - 1 - - - - - 1 Paul 4 11 19 12 2 1 3 9 13 7 Rubio 7 5 5 7 4 9 1 6 5 9 Santorum 1 1 3 - - - - - - 4 Trump 27 34 23 36 32 38 34 33 29 31 DK/NA 10 9 9 8 10 10 16 9 9 8 
 
 25. Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 63% 55% 61% 63% 71% 56% 59% 70% No 32 42 34 33 26 40 37 25 DK/NA 4 3 6 4 3 5 4 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 72% 58% 56% 56% 70% 75% 59% 54% 65% 69% No 23 38 40 39 27 19 31 40 32 30 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 2 6 10 7 3 1 
 
 26. Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 75% 73% 72% 78% 79% 64% 74% 75% No 15 20 15 10 13 23 17 11 DK/NA 11 7 13 11 8 14 9 13 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 81% 71% 66% 68% 81% 88% 72% 69% 76% 81% No 9 17 18 20 10 5 19 23 12 11 DK/NA 9 12 16 12 9 6 9 8 12 9 
 
 27. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 89% 94% 91% 95% 93% 75% 88% 91% No 8 5 6 3 6 19 11 5 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 1 5 1 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 92% 87% 79% 88% 93% 98% 76% 83% 93% 94% No 5 10 20 7 5 2 22 15 4 4 DK/NA 2 3 1 4 2 1 2 3 3 2 
 
 28. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 48% 53% 48% 49% 55% 37% 52% 43% No 45 43 46 42 37 60 43 49 DK/NA 7 4 5 8 8 3 5 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 43% 51% 38% 50% 49% 55% 46% 33% 50% 54% No 52 42 62 46 42 31 49 59 43 43 DK/NA 5 7 - 4 8 14 5 8 7 3 
 
 29. Would you say that - Carly Fiorina is honest and trustworthy or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 66% 71% 65% 72% 70% 52% 66% 65% No 18 17 14 12 16 32 20 15 DK/NA 16 12 21 17 14 17 14 19 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 71% 63% 52% 69% 70% 77% 64% 56% 68% 75% No 14 20 24 20 18 8 22 29 16 12 DK/NA 15 16 24 11 12 15 15 15 16 13 
 
 30. Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 73% 91% 77% 87% 76% 46% 75% 70% No 17 5 12 7 15 35 20 12 DK/NA 10 4 11 6 10 19 5 18 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 72% 74% 59% 70% 78% 88% 73% 66% 75% 76% No 17 16 26 20 11 9 20 25 15 14 DK/NA 10 10 15 10 11 4 7 9 10 10 
 
 31. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 67% 53% 66% 61% 71% 71% 64% 71% No 29 40 29 33 26 25 32 24 DK/NA 4 7 5 6 3 3 4 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 73% 64% 70% 63% 67% 70% 76% 55% 70% 66% No 23 32 24 34 29 26 22 35 27 32 DK/NA 4 4 7 3 4 4 3 9 3 2 
 
 32. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 73% 74% 66% 79% 72% 65% 73% 72% No 16 15 18 13 17 19 18 12 DK/NA 12 11 16 8 12 16 8 17 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 79% 69% 65% 68% 77% 83% 69% 71% 76% 74% No 12 18 17 23 13 7 20 19 11 20 DK/NA 9 13 18 9 10 9 11 10 13 6 
 
 33. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 76% 84% 82% 83% 79% 61% 72% 83% No 19 10 12 13 12 35 22 13 DK/NA 5 6 6 3 9 4 6 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 70% 79% 69% 81% 74% 79% 75% 74% 80% 71% No 22 17 26 18 18 15 17 23 15 23 DK/NA 8 4 5 2 7 6 8 3 5 6 
 
 34. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 80% 88% 82% 83% 86% 70% 82% 77% No 18 11 16 14 13 29 17 19 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 75% 83% 77% 84% 82% 74% 80% 75% 83% 81% No 22 15 22 15 16 21 19 22 15 19 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 2 5 1 3 2 - 
 
 35. Would you say that - Carly Fiorina has strong leadership qualities or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 69% 75% 69% 74% 73% 57% 68% 71% No 18 13 15 12 16 29 21 11 DK/NA 13 12 16 14 11 14 10 18 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 75% 66% 60% 71% 73% 75% 65% 64% 70% 78% No 16 18 22 19 15 15 19 22 18 14 DK/NA 9 16 18 10 11 11 16 14 12 8 
 
 36. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 70% 88% 73% 82% 73% 47% 71% 68% No 19 4 13 8 19 38 21 16 DK/NA 11 8 13 10 7 15 9 16 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 66% 71% 62% 68% 73% 74% 72% 68% 68% 70% No 22 17 25 21 15 15 17 21 21 21 DK/NA 12 11 13 10 12 11 11 11 11 9 
 
 37. Would you say that - Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 53% 39% 53% 56% 59% 41% 50% 58% No 40 54 38 36 36 51 46 32 DK/NA 7 7 8 8 4 8 5 10 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 62% 48% 46% 49% 57% 65% 51% 44% 60% 55% No 29 46 46 45 38 29 41 49 36 41 DK/NA 9 6 8 5 5 6 7 7 4 4 
 
 38. Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 74% 73% 71% 79% 76% 62% 71% 79% No 17 18 17 13 15 24 21 10 DK/NA 9 9 12 8 9 13 8 11 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 76% 73% 65% 71% 80% 85% 71% 74% 74% 79% No 13 19 22 19 14 9 26 20 15 14 DK/NA 11 9 13 10 7 6 2 6 11 7 
 
 39. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 87% 94% 90% 96% 88% 72% 86% 89% No 9 5 7 1 11 20 12 5 DK/NA 4 1 3 3 2 8 3 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 87% 87% 78% 88% 90% 96% 76% 85% 92% 89% No 7 10 18 8 7 4 23 13 4 7 DK/NA 6 3 4 4 3 - 2 2 4 5 
 
 40. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 49% 57% 48% 53% 55% 35% 51% 44% No 46 38 47 41 42 60 44 49 DK/NA 5 5 5 7 4 6 5 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 39% 53% 39% 52% 47% 60% 43% 44% 48% 52% No 53 42 57 46 45 35 51 51 47 44 DK/NA 8 4 4 2 8 5 6 5 4 4 
 
 41. Would you say that - Carly Fiorina cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 65% 71% 64% 70% 68% 51% 65% 63% No 20 19 17 16 20 28 23 16 DK/NA 15 11 19 14 12 21 12 21 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 69% 62% 56% 65% 69% 72% 61% 60% 71% 67% No 17 22 23 23 20 12 28 24 17 18 DK/NA 13 16 21 12 11 16 11 16 12 15 
 
 42. Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 71% 86% 74% 86% 75% 42% 71% 70% No 18 8 12 6 15 42 22 13 DK/NA 11 6 14 9 10 15 7 17 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 66% 73% 61% 71% 73% 81% 69% 69% 73% 71% No 21 17 26 22 16 9 27 19 16 21 DK/NA 13 10 14 7 11 10 5 12 12 8 
 
 43. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has the right kind of experience to be President or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 76% 70% 76% 75% 82% 72% 74% 79% No 21 26 22 21 18 22 23 17 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 - 6 3 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 83% 72% 77% 77% 79% 73% 73% 69% 83% 80% No 14 24 20 22 18 21 23 27 17 18 DK/NA 3 4 3 2 3 6 4 4 1 2 
 
 44. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of experience to be President or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 69% 72% 67% 75% 70% 58% 71% 66% No 22 18 22 17 22 32 23 21 DK/NA 9 10 11 8 9 10 7 13 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 74% 67% 60% 72% 75% 70% 63% 72% 71% 71% No 20 23 27 21 20 18 27 24 19 23 DK/NA 6 10 13 7 5 12 10 4 9 6 
 
 45. Would you say that - Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be President or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 57% 74% 68% 66% 60% 39% 56% 60% No 35 20 25 29 29 50 37 30 DK/NA 8 6 7 5 10 11 7 10 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 48% 62% 48% 59% 55% 66% 63% 57% 58% 49% No 44 30 42 36 36 26 27 34 35 43 DK/NA 8 8 10 5 9 8 10 8 7 8 
 
 46. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 56% 70% 55% 58% 65% 42% 57% 54% No 41 26 42 38 33 55 40 42 DK/NA 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 46% 61% 44% 62% 57% 60% 53% 55% 61% 52% No 50 36 56 35 38 34 44 41 37 46 DK/NA 4 3 - 4 5 7 3 4 2 2 
 
 47. Would you say that - Carly Fiorina has the right kind of experience to be President or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 51% 63% 55% 57% 59% 33% 51% 52% No 37 29 31 35 29 50 39 33 DK/NA 12 8 14 8 13 18 10 15 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 55% 50% 43% 57% 49% 57% 46% 43% 52% 62% No 35 38 41 35 41 31 40 42 37 31 DK/NA 10 13 17 8 10 12 13 15 11 7 
 
 48. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 70% 87% 74% 78% 76% 50% 72% 66% No 20 6 14 13 14 38 22 16 DK/NA 10 7 12 9 10 13 6 18 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 63% 74% 71% 69% 69% 70% 72% 73% 68% 69% No 24 18 18 21 23 21 27 14 22 21 DK/NA 14 8 12 10 8 9 1 13 10 10 
 
 49. Would you say that - Jeb Bush shares your values or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 50% 34% 50% 47% 58% 47% 46% 57% No 41 56 40 44 37 42 47 32 DK/NA 9 10 10 9 5 10 7 11 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 59% 45% 51% 46% 48% 60% 56% 39% 49% 57% No 31 47 42 42 45 34 37 46 42 39 DK/NA 10 8 7 12 7 6 6 14 9 4 
 
 50. Would you say that - Marco Rubio shares your values or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 68% 74% 66% 74% 68% 55% 66% 71% No 19 16 17 15 14 29 22 13 DK/NA 14 10 16 10 18 16 12 16 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 72% 65% 56% 66% 74% 80% 65% 60% 69% 75% No 15 20 23 20 15 13 20 25 19 15 DK/NA 12 14 22 13 11 7 15 14 12 10 
 
 51. Would you say that - Ben Carson shares your values or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 84% 92% 87% 94% 87% 62% 80% 89% No 12 4 8 4 8 30 16 5 DK/NA 4 4 5 1 5 8 4 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 83% 84% 69% 87% 86% 93% 77% 76% 86% 88% No 11 12 23 10 9 5 16 21 8 10 DK/NA 5 4 8 2 5 2 8 3 6 2 
 
 52. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 42% 46% 37% 42% 52% 29% 45% 35% No 52 44 56 50 42 68 50 56 DK/NA 6 9 7 8 6 3 5 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 34% 46% 30% 47% 39% 52% 34% 37% 39% 50% No 59 49 70 47 53 35 57 56 56 47 DK/NA 8 6 - 6 8 13 9 8 5 4 
 
 53. Would you say that - Carly Fiorina shares your values or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 58% 62% 57% 62% 64% 45% 56% 62% No 23 17 19 20 14 36 26 17 DK/NA 19 21 24 18 22 19 18 22 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 63% 56% 46% 59% 62% 69% 64% 53% 58% 61% No 18 25 28 22 23 15 23 31 19 21 DK/NA 19 19 26 19 15 16 13 16 23 18 
 
 54. Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes 67% 87% 75% 86% 70% 34% 69% 65% No 23 7 14 8 20 50 24 21 DK/NA 10 5 11 7 9 16 7 15 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Yes 63% 70% 57% 63% 73% 77% 64% 64% 67% 70% No 25 22 33 26 17 15 28 23 22 24 DK/NA 12 9 10 11 9 9 8 12 10 6 
 
 55. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning? 
 
 LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Shares values 28% 38% 35% 35% 23% 22% 29% 27% Cares needs/problems 9 6 9 8 6 14 7 12 Strong leadership 19 16 18 16 25 15 19 18 Honest/trustworthy 23 29 24 23 21 25 23 24 Right experience 5 2 4 2 4 10 5 4 Best chance/winning 13 8 8 12 16 10 12 14 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 5 2 4 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YRS.............. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... Yes No 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Shares values 25% 30% 42% 29% 22% 17% 26% 30% 26% 34% Cares needs/problems 6 10 13 8 9 6 14 9 7 8 Strong leadership 23 16 9 20 21 27 9 19 21 20 Honest/trustworthy 21 24 22 23 25 22 28 26 23 17 Right experience 6 4 4 5 6 4 6 4 6 4 Best chance/winning 16 11 9 12 14 18 13 8 14 17 DK/NA 3 4 1 2 4 6 4 4 4 - 
 
 56. Generally speaking, what type of candidate makes the best president: someone who has served as a Governor of a state, someone who has served in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, or someone who has never held an elected office? 

 Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has moved into a dominant position in Iowa, surpassing former front-runner Donald Trump as evangelical Christians begin to coalesce around him in the state that will cast the first 2016 nomination ballots. 
 
 A new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows the retired neurosurgeon is backed by 28 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, up 10 percentage points since late August. Trump is supported by 19 percent, down 4 points. 
 
 Those planning to caucus for Carson are drawn to his personal story and his status as a non-career politician, the poll shows, and they view him as someone who approaches issues with common sense and with guidance from his faith in God. 
 
 “His standing has improved in every way pollsters traditionally measure,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “This might be a wake-up for Donald Trump.” 
 
 Read the questions and methodology here. 
 
 Texas Senator Ted Cruz, at 10 percent, is the only other candidate in double digits. He's followed by Florida Senator Marco Rubio at 9 percent. The horse-race numbers for the top four mirror a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, with the main exception being that the earlier poll had Rubio in third place with 13 percent. 
 
 The Iowa Poll, taken Oct. 16-19, included 401 likely Republican caucus participants. On the full sample, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points; the margin is higher in subgroups. 
 
 Evangelical Christians, who represent 42 percent of likely Republican caucus participants in the poll, appear to be aligning behind Carson. He received support from a third of that group, up from 21 percent in August, when he only narrowly led Trump with that key segment. 
 
 Cruz is unlikely to make large gains without support softening for Carson or Trump, who hold a combined 51 percent of evangelical likely GOP caucus participants. 
 
 Carson's rise has also been fueled by gains with Tea Party supporters. Among those who consider themselves part of the limited-government movement, he gets a third of the support, up from 21 percent in August. 
 
 More than two-thirds of likely GOP caucus-goers also say that on the basis of religion alone, it would be unacceptable for a Muslim to be a U.S. president—a view Carson espoused in a Sept. 20 appearance on NBC's Meet the Press. 
 
 Likely Republican caucus participants, meanwhile, remain uncertain about Trump's Christian credentials. Only about a third consider him a committed Christian, while 28 percent say he isn't and 40 percent say they're not sure. His favorability declined slightly, to 59 percent, and the proportion of likely Republican caucus-goers who say they would never vote for Trump also ticked up 5 points to 34 percent. 
 
 When asked which two or three candidates they'd like to see drop out, Trump, at 25 percent, received the highest share. He's followed on the dropout wish list by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, both at 22 percent. Next is former New York Governor George Pataki at 21 percent. 
 
 Even after a month of super-PAC advertising on Bush's behalf in Iowa, he's picked by just 5 percent, down 1 point from August. His favorability rating has moved up 5 percentage points since August to 50 percent, however, his highest level in the past year. 
 
 Bush's name continues to burden him. Among likely caucus participants, 47 percent say that being the son and brother of two past presidents would be a bad thing because he would forever be in their shadow, while 42 percent say it would be a good because he knows the job's duties. 
 
 Carson's Appeal 
 
 As Trump dominated cable television over the summer, Carson quietly continued to build a network of Iowa supporters. He easily has the highest favorability rating among Republican candidates, with 84 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers seeing him positively, up from 79 percent in August. 
 
 Those glowing views of Carson, who rose from poverty to professional success and is seeking to become the nation's second black president, could make it hard for Trump, Cruz, or other rivals to attack him as the campaign heats up this fall. 
 
 In interviews, Carson supporters brought up his life story, candor, and non-political resume. Some also talked about how they think he could win black votes in a general election. 
 
 “He just says what he believes and I like that,” said Bruce Lindberg, 56, a chiropractor from Ottumwa who is leaning toward supporting Carson. “I like his story. He's been a hard worker and I don't think anything was given to him. He knows what it takes to be successful and that you have to work for it.” 
 
 The poll suggests Carson has more room to grow in Iowa, partly because his controversial statements generally aren't turning off even other candidates' supporters. Among that group, 56 percent find “very attractive” his statements that the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, is the worst thing since slavery, while 41 percent feel that way about his opposition to a Muslim president. Nearly half find “very attractive” his statement that Adolf Hitler's mass murder of Jews might not have been as successful if more people had been armed. 
 
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 Another positive factor for Carson is Iowans' strong desire for an outsider candidate. Asked to pick the bigger risk for the country's future, 60 percent said it was electing “the same sort of person who has served as president for many decades,” who would likely do things the way they'd always been done, while 31 percent see bigger risk in electing someone who hasn't held office and doesn't know how government works. 
 
 Two areas where Carson is less strong are his lack of foreign policy experience and his past research on aborted fetus tissue. Each registered as unattractive with a majority of likely GOP caucus-goers who aren't already supporting him. 
 
 Testing potential lines of attack against other top Republicans: 
 
 About half of likely GOP caucus-goers said they weren't bothered that Trump insults rivals. 
 
 Bush's advocacy for a “path to legal residence for immigrants who are in this country illegally” makes 63 percent less supportive of him. 
 
 When told Cruz has “led the charge for government shutdowns,” 67 percent said they weren't bothered. 
 
 After hearing that Carly Fiorina was “fired as CEO at Hewlett-Packard with a $21 million severance package after the company lost stock value,” 65 percent said they weren't concerned. 
 
 Rubio's youthfulness is mostly a non-issue, with 93 percent saying they're not bothered that the 44-year-old would be the third-youngest president. 
 
 As in a Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll released Wednesday, more of Trump's Iowa supporters are decided than Carson's. Roughly a third of Trump supporters say their minds are made up, while just 15 percent of Carson's supporters say that. 

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– Donald Trump did not have a good day in regard to Iowa Thursday. First, a new Quinnipiac poll found that Ben Carson had overtaken him in the state for the first time, and by a decent margin to boot—28% to 20%. Hours later, Trump's Twitter account retweeted this from a supporter (with hashtags removed): "BenCarson is now leading in the polls in Iowa. Too much Monsanto in the corn creates issues in the brain?" After that drew the attention of a Des Moines Register political reporter, Trump deleted the offending tweet and blamed an intern. "The young intern who accidentally did a Retweet apologizes," he wrote. Friday's not off to a better start for Trump: A Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll gives Carson an even bigger lead in Iowa: 28% to 19%. "His standing has improved in every way pollsters traditionally measure," says the pollster of Carson. "This might be a wake-up for Donald Trump."