Wooden carvings of top hat wearing groundhogs are for sale at an annual craft show in the square in Punxsutawney, Pa., Monday, Feb. 1, 2016. That is part of the town's annual celebration of Groundhog... (Associated Press) 
 
 PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (AP) — The handlers of Pennsylvania's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, say the furry rodent has failed to see his shadow, meaning means he's "predicted" an early spring. 
 
 Members of the top hat-wearing Inner Circle announced the "forecast" at sunrise, just before 7:30 a.m. Tuesday. 
 
 A German legend has it that if a furry rodent sees his shadow on Feb. 2, winter will last another six weeks. If not, spring comes early. 
 
 In reality, Phil's prediction is decided ahead of time by the group on Gobbler's Knob. The tiny hill is located just outside the town for which he's named about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh. 
 
 Records going back to 1887 show Phil has now predicted more winter 102 times while forecasting an early spring just 18 times. There are no records for the remaining years. 

 By Charles Roop 
 
 February 2, 2016 
 
 Welcome to February. It’s the month where couples frantically search for the perfect gift and restaurant reservations, or face the threat of sleeping in the dog house (I’m working on it, babe!). It’s also the time where people in Punxsutawney, Penn. and across the country wait to see a groundhog’s shadow. 
 
 The legend of Punxsutawney Phil, the rodent of such desire, began a long time ago not in the United States, but in Europe, according to the The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s website. It stems from early Christians in Europe and associated with Candlemas Day. If the sun made an appearance on that day and an animal (usually, a hedgehog) cast its shadow, it would call for six more weeks of bad weather. They called that extra length of bad weather a “second winter.” 
 
 Pennsylvania’s German settlers found out that the land was full of groundhogs, which resembled the European hedgehog, according to the club’s website. They figured that the rodent was intelligent enough to hide once it encountered its shadow, thus signaling a longer winter. And the legend continues to this day on February 2. 
 
 Appearances of the groundhog were usually private, but a newspaper posted Punxsutawney’s appearance in 1886. Since then, the groundhog has been an attraction that has brought thousands of people to see him. 
 
 It’s written on the club’s website that Phil’s predictions are correct “100% of the time, of course!” 
 
 Of course! 
 
 An animal that happens to have psychic abilities or an advanced degree in meteorology can predict the outcome of the winter season. 
 
 But, wait. Does he have those traits? Highly unlikely. 
 
 So, how accurate is this marmot? 
 
 I found a page from NOAA’s National Center of Environmental Information that discusses the history and accuracy. They have data since 1988 that list the predictions (shadow or no shadow), and whether the national average temperatures for February and March were above or below normal. 
 
 Since 1998, Punxsutawney Phil predicted it correctly for February and March only 18 percent of the time. So much for that 100 percent. 
 
 Interestingly, Phil got it right (again, for February and March) in the 1990s 40 percent of the time. Not bad for a rodent. But he only got it right once (2014) since then. 
 
 There were many times where he was correct for February, and incorrect in March, or vice versa. Phil predicted all months incorrectly 29 percent of the period since 1988. 
 
 Simply put: His track record is not that impressive. 
 
 So, what could happen for the rest of winter? Enter the meteorologists. 
 
 The Climate Prediction Center is calling for higher chances of above average temperatures in the northern U.S. in February, and higher chances of below normal temps across the southern U.S. - including much of Florida. The CPC is calling for higher chances of above normal precipitation across the South, with higher chances of below normal precipitation in the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes. You can blame the higher rain and cooler temps in part because of El Niño. The three month outlook (February, March, and April) looks very similar. 
 
 So, when you look at your smartphone or watch our newscast Tuesday morning and find out whether his shadow has been encountered or not, just keep in mind that his record is not "100 percent." 
 
 Meteorologists 1, Phil 0.
– It's Groundhog Day, and Punxsutawney Phil already has issued his winter forecast: an early spring. At the annual tradition in Pennsylvania's Gobbler's Knob, the groundhog emerged from his cage (which looks like a tree trunk) and saw no shadow, according to the emcee of the Groundhog Club. "There is no shadow to be cast!" he declared, per NPR. "An early spring is my forecast!" This is actually a rarity: Over the years, Phil has predicted an early spring only 18 times and more winter 102 times, notes the AP. Unfortunately, his track record isn't too strong, as this post at WCTV makes clear.