The Tampa Bay Lightning (+700) are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup entering the 2018-19 season.
There are nine teams with odds at 12-1 or shorter entering the campaign.
The NHL drops the puck on the 2018-19 season on Oct. 3, and season-long futures have been posted for about a month, so the market has adjusted. But there are still plenty of betting opportunities out there.
This is Part IV of our futures previews. In previous previews we've covered longshots, fringe teams and playoff contenders.
This article will break down the nine biggest favorites at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
Each team on this list has odds of 12-1 or shorter. Let's get on with the show.
>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts' picks.
Karlsson, perhaps the best defenseman in the league, joins a blueline that already sports Brent Burns. Like Karlsson, Burns is an offensive whiz and he led the entire league in shot attempts at 5v5 in 2017-18. He finished with 150 more than Alex Ovechkin, who finished second in that category.
The player who really makes this unit work is Marc-Edouard Vlasic. As good as Karlsson and Burns are offensively, Vlasic is at the same level defensively. You could make the argument that he's the game's premier shutdown rearguard.
Even if Brenden Dillon, Justin Braun and Joakim Ryan aren't anything more than average, the Sharks will still have the best defense in the Western Conference, if not the entire NHL.
San Jose's defense is clearly its strength, but the Sharks have some considerable talent up front, as well.
The ageless Joe Thornton will play set-up man in between Evander Kane and Joe Pavelski. Whether the 39-year-old center will be able to keep producing — which is to say, keep setting up Kane and Pavelski — is a big question mark.
The good news is that the Sharks are deep enough at center, with Logan Couture or even Tomas Hertl, that a steep decline from Thornton won't sink them. Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier and Hertl — if he's not called upon to play center — will move up and down the lineup on the wings, and all three of them are second-line caliber players with potential to be more than that.
The bottom six could be a problem, though.
San Jose brought in Antti Suomela, a 24-year-old free agent, from the Finnish League, and it looks like he will anchor the third line in between Kevin LaBanc and either Donskoi, Meier or Melker Karlsson. LaBanc is an all-action type of winger whose good at getting shots off while Karlsson is replacement-level.
In goal is Martin Jones. The 28-year-old goaltender has made a habit of putting together average regular seasons and then turning into Ken Dryden in the playoffs.
Jones has started 60 or more games in the last three seasons and has a .919 save percentage at 5v5 so he's not been anything special. Perhaps a smaller workload would benefit Jones in 2018-19 as the Sharks have a better-than-capable backup goalie in Aaron Dell.
San Jose's odds were slashed from 20-1 to 12-1 (or lower at some shops) after the Karlsson trade. At this point there's not much value left on the board.
The Pittsburgh Penguins didn't win the Stanley Cup for the first time in three seasons in 2017-18 but they were still among the best teams in the NHL.
Even with Pittsburgh's best players sitting on the wrong side of 30, it's likely that the Penguins contend for the Metropolitan Division crown and possibly even the Eastern Conference.
The Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs are all better than Pittsburgh, but they have to compete in the same division. That's not to say the Metro is an easy ride; it's the home of the last three Stanley Cup winners after all, but it's definitely the softer of the two Eastern Conference divisions.
We don't have to get too deep into the Penguins' forwards. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still two of the best players in the world, and with Derick Brassard filling in as the No. 3 center, Pittsburgh has one of the best spines in the league.
The right side of the lineup is also extremely strong. Patric Hornqvist will snuggle up next to Crosby, Phil Kessel will fly with Evgeni Malkin and promising youngster Daniel Sprong playing next to Brassard.
The left side doesn't quite compare but Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust and Carl Hagelin are adequate, and that's all you really need with these centers running the show.
The Penguins were a top-five possession team in 2017-18 with a 52.23 Corsi For (CF%) and averaged 2.66 expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5. They're dynamic, quick and have a bushel of creators and a gaggle of finishers.
The Penguins have a middle-of-the-pack defense headlined by Kris Letang.
The biggest concern for Pittsburgh is in goal. Matt Murray was supposed to cement himself as one of the league's best goalies in 2017-18 but instead he struggled mightily in his first full season as a starter.
Murray did deal with injuries and was limited to 49 games, but in that time he posted a .904 save percentage and -11.42 Goals Saved Above Average at 5v5. He comes into this season as the 60th-best goaltender in the league according to Corsica.
The good news for the Penguins is that a lot went wrong for them in 2017-18 but they still managed to post 100 points. They finished with the third-lowest PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) in the league which implies regression should come. This team is too good to shoot 7.3% at 5v5.
The fact that Pittsburgh, which is just a year removed from winning a second championship in a row, is coming into this season under the radar is a frightening proposition.
The market is pretty well adjusted for the Penguins heading into the season, but if they get off to a slow start like they did last season, keep an eye on their futures.
Last season was Winnipeg's coming-out party and we were ready for it. A run to the Western Conference Final means the Jets won't surprise anyone, but are they now overvalued?
This team is absolutely a contender, but there are some weaknesses here that have the potential to bring the Jets down a peg or two.
While the Jets have a top six worth dreaming about, their defense is a bit of a concern. Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba are a great first pair, but Winnipeg will have to make do with either Ben Chiarot, Tucker Poolman or Dmitry Kulikov playing as a second pair defenseman with Dustin Byfuglien.
"Big Buff" is still an offensive force, but he's 33 now and doesn't make life easy for his partner. Tyler Myers will likely anchor the third pair with whoever isn't playing with Byfuglien, and that pairing will be fine, but this is supposed to be an elite team.
Connor Hellebuyck comes into this season with high expectations after he put up a sparkling .931 save percentage at 5v5 last season. The 25-year-old was awesome in 2017-18, but goalies are fickle, and he was a mess in 2016-17, posting a .918 5v5 SV% and a -8.29 GSAA. The fact that he comes into this campaign as the 18th-best goalie — according to Corsica — indicates he's not a guarantee to post similar numbers.
This isn't to say that Hellebuyck will flop. He could be this good, but the Jets made life easy on him last season — his expected save percentage was .929 at 5v5 — so it'll be interesting to see how he does if the team struggles a bit defensively.
Winnipeg's star power up front will likely carry this team and cover up its defensive blemishes. Plus the Jets have a fixable problem that can be addressed through trades.
I'm not saying I'm out on the Jets, but it's not a foregone conclusion that they will put up 100 points in the NHL's deepest division. I like the Under 105.5 points but expect Winnipeg to be very good again.
The Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs are three of the best teams in the NHL, and thanks to the league's asinine playoff format, two of them will likely meet in the first round of the postseason. Such is life in this weird league.
The Bruins have the best line in hockey. David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are scintillating and have been since joining forces two seasons ago. For the 18-22 minutes a game this trio is on the ice, the Bruins run the game. They are incredibly tough to score against — Bergeron is the game's best two-way center — and are just as tough to keep from scoring.
The middle six is nothing to stick your nose up at, either. David Krejci is a great second-line center, and wingers Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, David Backes and Ryan Donato are all good enough to play anywhere in the top nine. Whoever ends up as the pivot on the third line could be a weak link, but this group is terrific.
The defense is a little top heavy, but there is a lot to like. It took Charlie McAvoy one season to become one of the league's best defensemen, and he's got a perfect partner in Zdeno Chara. The 41-year-old's best days are behind him, but he's fine next to McAvoy for the time being.
Torey Krug runs the second pair and he's as good as they come in terms of producing offense from the blueline, but his partner Brandon Carlo is middling at best. The third pair projects to be the mediocre John Moore and Kevan Miller, who is perfectly adequate for this role.
Tuukka Rask has been doing this a long time, and for the last three seasons, he's been nothing extraordinary in the cage. He hasn't been bad, either, he just does his job.
The Bruins made a shrewd move by bringing in Jaroslav Halak in from the Islanders. The Slovakian goalie was hung out to dry over the past two seasons on Long Island. His delta save percentage (difference between actual and expected) was +0.49 in 2017-18, meaning he actually gave the Islanders decent goaltending, all things considered.
Boston is certainly a Cup contender, but these odds reflect that. Moving on.
The reigning Stanley Cup champions are in a funny spot. Washington got the monkey off its back, but it also lost its head coach, Barry Trotz, and several of his assistants — although one of them, Todd Reirden, is now the head honcho in D.C.
A regime change after winning it all, so it goes. Outside of Trotz, the Caps return almost their entire roster to shoot for the repeat.
Alex Ovechkin leads the charge up front and he's been running well with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson for a while now, so if ain't broke.
Kuznetsov's emergence as a star center has pushed Nicklas Backstrom into a second-line center role, and that's done wonders for the Caps. He will be flanked by either Jakub Vrana or Andre Burakovsky on the left and T.J. Oshie on the right. Whoever it is, this is a fantastic top six.
The third line also shows well with Lars Eller, Brett Connolly and whoever plays between Vrana and Burakovsky.
We already knew this team had a great group of forwards, but its defense ain't too shabby, either.
John Carlson signed a Capital-for-life extension this offseason and he headlines this unit. However, his partner Michal Kempny, showed well last season, and behind them the shutdown pair of Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov make Carlson's life a lot easier.
The bottom pair is a problem just because of the presence of Brooks Orpik, although Christian Djoos looks like a good NHL defenseman in a small sample. Orpik's a drag but the team still found a way to succeed with him on the ice last season.
Braden Holtby had one of the most 'goaltending is so volatile' seasons in 2017-18. After posting splendid numbers year after year and establishing himself as one of the game's strongest netminders, Holtby fell off a cliff during the regular season. He was so bad (and Philipp Grubauer was so good) that he didn't play in Washington's first two playoff games. The Caps lost both of them.
In stepped Holtby, and the next thing you know, Ovechkin is drinking beer out of the Stanley Cup.
With Grubauer gone, Holtby will need to do better than his .907 SV% from last season to keep Washington within earshot of Pittsburgh. I like the Penguins to win the division, but in all likelihood the Capitals finish as runners-up. Another Cup isn't out of the question, but there's little value in the futures market here.
For the sake of uniformity, I've pulled all the odds for these NHL previews from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. But it should be noted that other books will naturally have different prices, for instance, has Nashville as the Stanley Cup favorite at +679. has Nashville at +1100, behind Winnipeg and Vegas in the West. All I'm saying is remember to shop for the best line.
Nashville is stacked on both ends of the ice, but the defense is where you need to start.
Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm could all be top-pair defensmen on just about every team, and the fact that Nashville has four potential No. 1 rearguards is impressive. Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber aren't anything special as a third pairing, but that's not the point.
The Preds didn't really start to click until after the New Year, which coincided with Ellis' return from injury. Up to that point Nashville had gone 23-10-5 and had a CF% below 50%. Once Ellis jumped back in, Nashville ripped. The Preds went 30-8-6 with a 52.4 CF% over the last three-plus months of the season.
This wonderful defense also has the luxury of playing in front of one of the league's best goaltenders — at least he was last season — Pekka Rinne. The long-legged Finn struggled through some down years in the first half of this decade but he was good in 2016-17 and won the Vezina last season.
Rinne is almost 36 (and he is a goalie) so he could fall off without warning, but he's backed up by Juuse Saros, which gives Nashville some breathing room.
The forwards may not be as good as the defensemen in Music City, but that doesn't mean they are a sore spot, either.
With players such as Filip Forsberg, Kevin Fiala and Viktor Arvidsson on the wings and Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris down the middle, Nashville's forwards should compete with those of most other teams. The bottom six leaves something to be desired, but there's no such thing as a perfect team.
In the end, the Predators are the class of the Western Conference. The sky is the limit for this group. I think a bet at 11-1 is a fine wager.
Once again, these lines come from Vegas, so they are naturally shaded a little bit toward the Knights given the betting support for the team out there. Most offshores have Vegas at 10-1 to win the Cup and the O/U at 99.5 points.
This isn't about last season. We know what happened last season. So the question is, can it happen again?
Something pretty funny ended up happening with Vegas. After the Golden Knights' hot start to 2017-18, everybody praised their depth. But really, the Knights are top heavy. Their first line featuring William Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault is fantastic and they beefed up their second line by adding Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty in the offseason.
The problem is that the bottom six is pretty weak outside of Erik Haula, and players such as Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Cody Eakin and Ryan Reaves bring very little to the table on the ice.
The knock on the Knights' defense last season was that it lacked a "big name." It still does to some extent, but Colin Miller, Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb and Nate Schmidt (who is suspended for the first 20 games this season) are each very good players in their own right.
But beyond those four, things get murky. Nick Holden and Brad Hunt are meh, while Deryk Engelland is a bit of a liability when he's playing. As is the case with the forwards, the bottom half of the defense leaves something to be desired.
Marc-Andre Fleury was fantastic for Vegas last season but he dealt with a litany of injury issues, and it's hard to be confident that he's going to replicate his .931 SV% or +8.21 GSAA at 5v5 again this season.
There was so much that went right for Vegas last season. From Karlsson's absurd 23.4 shooting percentage to Fleury standing on his head for weeks on end. Something's gotta give.
This is still a good team, but I find it hard to believe the Knights are just as likely to go over 100 points as they are to go under. I'm playing the Under 100.5 and think Under 99.5 is fine, too.
Stanley Cups aren't won in July, but don't tell that to Maple Leafs fans.
Auston Matthews, Tavares and Nazem Kadri is an almost unimaginable 1-2-3 down the middle, and they are playing with talented wingers such as Mitch Marner, Patrick Marleau and William Nylander.
There's not much to get into here, as the picture is pretty clear. The Leafs should score a lot of goals. The question is, will they do a good enough job preventing them?
The Buds' defense is quirky. The left side of the defense features three very talented players in Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott, but the right side is really bad. Like really bad.
Ron Hainsey is projected to play on the top pair with Rielly and he'll do his best to completely mitigate everything Rielly does well. The same goes for Nikita Zaitsev on the second pair with Gardiner. Dermott, who looked really good in his 37 games last season, will likely pair with Connor Carrick, who is nothing to write home about, either.
Last season the Leafs finished in the bottom five in xGA/60 and in the bottom 10 in shot attempts allowed at 5v5. Luckily, they had goaltender Frederik Andersen to bail them out, but it's never a good idea to bet on a goalie to bail you out.
Toronto is going to score enough and drive play enough that it will comfortably make the playoffs. But this O/U is too high. Getting to 107 points in the same division as the Bruins and Lightning is a tall task and I think going Under 106.5 points is a sound bet.
Last season I thought the Lightning would go under their high season point total. I was dead wrong.
Tampa Bay is an absolute monster, and the best may yet still come.
There are stars all over the place at Amalie Arena. Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Viktor Hedman and even Ryan McDonagh (in his own way) are all so good at what they do.
Not to mention that the Bolts have some fantastic young players on the rise as well. Brayden Point is already one of the game's best all-three-zone centers and is drawing comparisons to Boston's Bergeron. Yanni Gourde scored 25 goals in his first NHL season. Anthony Cirelli is a breakout season waiting to happen. Perhaps the crown jewel of this "next wave" is defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. Just 20 years old, the Russian rearguard is a star in the making and could get to that level this season.
And THAT doesn't mention Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Anton Stralman or J.T. Miller — who form the best supporting ensemble in the NHL.
Then there's the goalie. Andrei Vasilevskiy was certainly good in 2017-18, but was he the superstar that everybody made him out to be?
The 24-year-old posted a .931 save percentage at 5v5 in 65 games last season, but his xSV% was .929, so yes he stopped what he had to, but the guys in front of him made life very easy for him. Vasilevskiy comes into this season as the No. 17 goaltender in the league, according to Corsica.
Even if Vasilevskiy is just good and not great, the Bolts have the best on-paper team in the NHL. Unfortunately, this is the NHL, and being the best team doesn't automatically mean you'll be hanging a banner.
The Lightning are the rightful favorite and are the most likely Stanley Cup winner. That doesn't mean you should just go and bet them. At +700 they have an implied probability of 12.50%, which means 87.5% of the time the best team in the NHL doesn't win the Stanley Cup.
Odds courtesy of the Westgate Superbook. Stats and data provided by Corsica, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, The Athletic and NHL.com.


Whoever the next chief of staff is, it's hard not to imagine Trump asking him to commit crimes.
As has been well established by now, Trump places loyalty (fealty, really) to him above the Constitution, above the rule of law, above everything. Just ask James Comey or Sally Yates or Jeff Sessions about that. Therefore, it is entirely possible that Trump's next chief of staff will at the very least witness crimes and cover-ups and/or will be asked to participate in crimes and cover-ups. Will the next chief of staff be strong and upstanding enough to resist Trump's virtually inevitable instructions to do something illegal? Or will they go the route of Nixon chief of staff H.R. Haldeman and engage in perjury, conspiracy, and obstruction of justice to the tune of a prison term? I would argue that whoever is willing to take this job in this administration understands that not everything will be on the level.


Thrift Stores in Branson West and Nixa, Missouri to better serve you!
2 Thrift Stores to Serve You Better!
Home > 2 Thrift Stores to Serve You Better!
Our Thrift Stores offer affordable shopping just off Business Hwy 13 and Hwy 76 in Branson West and on Highway 14, just west of 160 in Nixa, Missouri. Proceeds from both stores go to support the programs and services of Christian Associates as well as provide emergency clothing, furniture and household items at no cost to our clients in need of assistance. Both stores are clean, neat, well organized and offer a unique shopping experience. Come see us! We are open Monday through Saturday, 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., and on Sunday from 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Donations can also be dropped off at either store Monday through Friday from 10:00 am till 3:00 pm.
Christian Associates Thrift Stores are also a wholesome and friendly place to volunteer your time and talents! If you or someone you know would like to help out, please give us a call or better yet, drop by today and become a part of the excitement!
A GREAT place to donate!
Your donation of good quality new and used clothing, furniture, tools and household items help hundreds of families and individuals each year!
Seasonal decorations plus so much more.
You may drop off your items that are working and usable between 10:00 am and 3:00 pm.
10:00 AM till 6:00 PM Monday through Saturday.
1:00 AM till 5:00 PM Sunday.
Donations accepted Monday thru Friday 10:00 AM until 3:00 PM.


text:
« Tour of a Christmas Tree: 60 Years of Memories Cluttered through the Branches
25 Years Ago Tonight: Last Tiger Game with Dad »
By Kevin Walsh | March 14, 2022 - 6:34 pm | March 14, 2022 Childhood Memories, Culture, Entertainment, History, Magazines, Movies, Nostalgia
My childhood neighbors, mysteriously known to us kids on the block as "The Bachelors" paid someone to clean out their basement–the same year I had just started my career in photography as an eighth grader with an eye for old gear at garage sales.
Mike and Greg prove the touchdown did happen.
Like my dreams of a career as an architect, I was deeply affected by one show–and in 1979 was influenced with the Brady Bunch episode as Greg savedthe football season with darkroom heroics that proved the touchdown–or it was the 35 mm camera that Mr. Pedotto gave me. Either way, I knew what an enlarger looked like and when the pile of stuff was out for the trash I headed right over.
In addition to grabbing the 1937 Leitz beauty (with no lens), I noticed a couple bags of magazines. My Mad collection was already in high gear and when I saw the red border I dove in. But it wasn't Alfred E. Newman but Jimmy Hoffa who greeted me. Oddly enough, the two piles of Time magazines were from just two years: 1937 and 1958–so odd.
I had high hopes of retiring early with these musty archives; surely there was a millionaire out there interested in those days before eBay and Facebook Marketplace. So I bagged them, went to Dave's Comics in Royal Oak only to be told there was no such market. Dave was lying, obviously, so I kept them, flipping through the pages occasionally–usually when I'm either avoiding real work or waiting, like last Saturday, for paint to literally dry.
The May 24, 1937 issue opened up a time-capsule I'd never really paid attention to–perhaps because as an eighth grader legendary race horses and English monarchs didn't concern me . This time, I really had time to kill so I thumbed through each page, noticing tiny news-pieces and odd advertisings I'd generally blow right by since the font was so small.
History's Archbishop of Various Reviews
Abdicator-in-Chief
The cover features Cosmo Gordon Lang, Archbishop of Canterbury from 1928-1942, whose legacy is a mixed bag as he supported appeasement and Britain's non-involvement in the Spanish Civil War supporting the non-fascists as well as supporting to the free-pass of Chamberlain's disastrous Munich Pact–a day of "thanksgiving" for the "lifting of a cloud." Yet he was strongly humanitarian, rescuing from concentration camps 60 rabbis from Germany before the war and standing strongly for "limited" contraception and strongly against the death penalty.
But he was also the real star for the first televised British coronation (as illustrated in detail in The Crown) as he was vehemently opposed to newly crowned Edward VII marrying American Wallace Warfield/Simpson–leading to the abdication if David couldn't have his newly divorced love for his queen.
The Archbishop would become notable too for fumbling the crown in the "fizzle" referred to below when Edward's younger brother "Bertie" became King George VI with his eldest daughter Elizabeth smiling to the crowd–in the same setting where she would be crowned herself in just 15 years.
Hindenberg Post-Mortem
Just two weeks prior was the disastrous explosion of the Hindenberg and the issued feaured some follow-up on the investigation and the victims, ironically (or on purpose) beside Douglas's TWA ad for the convenience of air travel…
Frustrated Delano Roosevelt
And probably the thing that I find most fun is reading about FDR as a sitting president–exhausted by an annoying Congress, instead of the history book legendary architect of the WWII allies and the voice of optimism with his New Deal.
And Under Time's "Races" byline…
It's a jolt to see "Jim Crow" referred to not as an obviously racist series of laws (that still to make our news in our voters' rights debates)–but it's even more incredible to see them listed as a working-title series of laws, affecting a Black congressman from Chicago in his travels to Arkansas–and to see him referred to as "taffy colored."
Truth & Consequences in Advertising
The full-color ads are often my favorite part, especially the Golden Gate Bridge's grand-opening at the end of the month and the gold old days of smoking before those ugly white surgeon general warnings told you about cancer, birth deffects and all those other downers…
The movie fan in me likes to comb the upcoming announcements (beside ads for construction pine and ads for gin five years after the repeal) for works in progress that would become classics (and bombs), including the upcoming forgettable Clark Gable film Idiot's Delight which would eventually premiere in 1939 the same year of his Oscar-winning role as Rhett Butler. My 1930s favorite actress, Myrna Loy, is also working on the sequel with William Powell in their long-running and sharply written Thin Man series. But I knew her first as Frank's long-suffering wife in Cheaper by the Dozen and its sequel Belles on their Toes.
Checking on the Sports section, you'll even see a brief story on Seabiscuit's future nemesis in the next year's "Match Race of the Century" and the year'sTriple Crown Winner War Admiral. Like Seabiscuit, the Admiral was named nautically in honor of his sire Man O' War who was also owned by Samuel Riddle.
And the bright red cherry in the issue for me is the artwork in this gorgeous climb up a seaside hill in a beautiful new $1,550 Cadillac.
But it's time to jump ahead 85 years and put on the second coat of paint.
Tagged Edward VII, george VI, Golden Gate Bridge, Hindenberg, Queen Elizabeth II, Seabiscuit, War Admiral. Bookmark the permalink.
About Kevin Walsh
Kevin began MyMediaDiary.com in 2013 as an experiment that was as simple as "What's a blog?" and ended up becoming a forum for fellow writers. He's been a high school teacher for 28 years and worked as an administrator and instructor in colleges for 6. Contact him at: kevin@mymediadiary.com He is also the producer of the web-series and blog, www.DiggingDetroit, founder and producer for MMD Productions at www.mmdphotovideo.com which offers quick, professional photography, video and multimedia solutions for individuals, organizations and businesses. His high school media production text, "Video Direct," has been used in 40 states--and he occasionally still sells a few. He is the current president of the non-profit DAFT (Digital Arts Film and Television) which sponsors the Michigan Student Film Festival. He lives in Royal Oak, Michigan, is married to Patrice and is tolerated by his two kids Aidan and Abby who have all graciously allowed him to write about them on occasion. Follow Kevin on Twitter @kwteacher
View all posts by Kevin Walsh →

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
using Unicorn.Internal;

namespace Unicorn
{
    /// <summary>
    /// Types of unicorn-engine hooks.
    /// </summary>
    public enum UnicornHookType
    {
        /// <summary>
        /// Interrupts/Syscalls.
        /// </summary>
        Interrupts = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_INTR,
        /// <summary>
        /// Particular instruction.
        /// </summary>
        Instructions = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_INSN,

        /// <summary>
        /// Range of code.
        /// </summary>
        Code = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_CODE,
        /// <summary>
        /// Basic block.
        /// </summary>
        Block = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_BLOCK,

        /// <summary>
        /// Memory read on unmapped memory.
        /// </summary>
        MemReadUnmapped = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_READ_UNMAPPED,
        /// <summary>
        /// Memory write on unmapped memory.
        /// </summary>
        MemWriteUnmapped = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_WRITE_UNMAPPED,
        /// <summary>
        /// Memory fetch on unmapped memory.
        /// </summary>
        MemFetchUnmapped = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_FETCH_UNMAPPED,

        /// <summary>
        /// Memory read on read-protected memory.
        /// </summary>
        MemReadProtected = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_READ_PROT,
        /// <summary>
        /// Memory write on write-protected memory.
        /// </summary>
        MemWriteProtected = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_WRITE_PROT,
        /// <summary>
        /// Memory fetch on non-executable memory.
        /// </summary>
        MemFetchProtected = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_FETCH_PROT,

        /// <summary>
        /// Memory reads.
        /// </summary>
        MemRead = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_READ,
        /// <summary>
        /// Memory writes.
        /// </summary>
        MemWrite = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_WRITE,
        /// <summary>
        /// Memory fetches.
        /// </summary>
        MemFetch = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_FETCH,

        /// <summary>
        /// Successful memory reads.
        /// </summary>
        MemReadAfter = uc_hook_type.UC_HOOK_MEM_READ_AFTER,
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


In Part 2 of the mini-series on mumbling, The Public Speaker shares 8 tips and exercises to help you kick your mumbling habit forever and be heard.
Last week, in Part 1 of this series, we started talking about mumbling. In the episode Why You Mumble (and Why You Need to Stop!), I gave you the top 5 top reasons why people mumble. We talked about how mumbling hurts your credibility and can negatively impact your career. As Part 2, I'm going to share some of my best secrets for kicking the mumbling habit for good!.
Mumbling happens when your conversation partner has a hard time understanding your words—when you have indistinct enunciation. How do you know if you frequently mumble? People will often ask you to repeat yourself!
Mumbling usually happens because your mouth isn't open enough. When you've got partially closed teeth and lips, the syllables can't escape properly and all the sounds run together. Mumbling can also be caused by looking down, and speaking too quietly or too quickly.
Exercise #1: Enunciate. Articulate. Exaggerate.
Exercise #2: "The Lips, the Teeth, the Tip of the Tongue"
Keep in mind, your mouth is an instrument, and like all instruments, the more space you allow for the sound of your voice, the more resonant and clear it will be. Think of opera singers and pop stars when they need to hit the big note—their mouth is wide open.
If you don't open your mouth widely for this exercise, what happens? You'll fumble the words. You simply can't repeat these words quickly without opening your mouth.
Peter Piper picked a pack of pickled peppers.
Now, let's try the "pencil in the mouth" trick!


The first synagogue known in Istanbul was from the 4th century and was converted to a church by the Byzantine emperor Theodosius II. The oldest synagogue still active today is from 1404; the Ahrida synagogue. The Ahrida synagogue is located in Balat, the area with the most synagogues and community buildings. Balat was already a Jewish neighborhood before the conquest of Istanbul.


♀, wings remain below neck shield.
Yellow-green to blue-green round grasshopper, with long probes, banded back, black back of the head and a broad kinked neck shield in the shape of a saddle. The neck shield is slightly raised to accommodate the spongy golden-yellow wings. The wings are no longer sufficiently developed for flying. It can not fly and is a moderate jumper, but a good climber. He lives in shrubs and small trees where the green colour camouflages. Lives of insects and other creatures and sometimes also plant parts. ♀ and ♂ both chirp and do so by ironing their left wing over the right wing. ⇔ l. 22-30 mm The name comes from the saddle-shaped neck shield. This is the Western Saddle Grasshopper, who lives in and around France. The EPHIPPIGER EPHIPPIGER (Eastern Saddle Grasshopper) cannot be distinguished in appearance, but it is geographically separated to the east of Italy, in the Balkans to Turkey. In many literature both species are still seen as the same usually under the name E. ephippiger. That is why both areas are on the location map. LA: ≈ The EPHIPPIGER CRUCIGER has a black and white striped back and is especially on the French mountain slopes.


We are a custom cabinet and furniture shop. We specialize in kitchens, vanities, theaters, media cabinets and many other custom built-ins.
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Big Hammer is a family owned deck and fence contracting company. We are one of the best in our area and strive to continue to be the best. We are currently expanding our specialties to custom design keg sculptures and fountains.
Located in the heart of barn country, Tuscarora was founded with a desire to not only salvage these nostalgic structures, but to repurpose the wood into beautiful and timeless products as well. You won't find cookie cutter, big box store products here since each reclaimed piece of lumber is unique. With that in mind, we work hard to create customized products that are truly unique and one-of-a-kind. Our finished products are hand-selected from our large inventory of reclaimed wood and skillfully milled by our team of craftsmen to meet your expectations. Tuscarora Wood Midwest, LLC, founded in 2006, is a father/son, family-owned business started by Rod and Cody Long. With our mill shop located in Covington, Ohio we have the ability to ship our products throughout the United States. We personally invest ourselves into local projects as well, servicing many customers in the Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky tri-state area.
Hello and thank you for considering TruBlue Total House Care of Mason for your property management and maintenance needs! I'm Arthur Asesyan and my wife Ann and I own and operate this local franchise, which specializes in providing complete house care, including maid services, lawn care, home improvements and emergency repairs. TruBlue works with home owners, business owners, real estate professionals, general contractors and property managers to maintain homes and rental properties, improve curb appeal, make final preparations to sell homes and more. I've been in business since I was 19 and am an experienced business owner. I opened this business because I wanted to start a company that would allow me to serve my community in a more personal manner while providing a service people can truly use. You can trust that, at TruBlue, we are reliable and convenient. I know how frustrating it can be to get contractors and service people to even call you back. That will NOT be an issue with TruBlue. We will be here for what you need when you need it. It's extremely important to me and my team that every single customer is 100 percent satisfied. We'll be on time, our work will be quality and our people will be professional. We are committed to excellent customer service and to building relationships with our clients, so we're going to do everything we can to make that happen. Give us a call today and let us show you what we mean. Our Mission We strive to become the most trusted and respected national house care company. We pride ourselves in offering a vast array of home services as well presenting the most trustworthy House Care Managers to maintain the properties of our clients. Our goal is to ensure our seniors ability to properly maintain their property so they can remain independent in their homes for as long as possible. Our house care services also help busy adults gain greater freedom and flexibility to spend more time with family and friends doing the activities they truly enjoy.
Interior trim, bookcases, kitchen remodeling, cabinet installation, woodworking, crown molding, decks,residential carpentry, commercial trim carpentry.
In need of some woodwork? Chances are you'll want to hire a Casstown, OH carpenter. Carpenters work with all types of wood and can specialize in many different areas, including framing, finishing and custom-made furniture. Make sure you choose the right Casstown carpenter for your job by asking plenty of questions, viewing their past work and reading reviews.


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Конрад од Монферата или Конрад I Јерусалимски (средина четрдесетих година 12. века - 28. април 1192) био је јерусалимски краљ од 1190. до 1192. године.

Долазак на власт

Гроф Монфератски је до доласка у Свету земљу живео у Цариграду, али је због убиства морао побећи. О великом поразу крсташа код Хитина није знао ништа, а када је његов брод пристао у Акр, затекао је празан град са Саладиновом заставом на зидовима. Ту је чуо о великој катастрофи. Запутио се у Тир где, са малим бројем војника, стиже 14. јула. Већина његове војске је отишла у Јерусалим да га брани од Саладина. Конрад је организовао одбрану Тира. Међутим, Саладин није имао намеру да се ту задржава већ је кренуо директно на Јерусалим.

Пошто је био племенитог порекла (рођак немачког цара Фридриха Барбадосе) није му било тешко да преузме власт над Тиром. Знао је да су већ 1187. године започеле припреме за покретање Трећег крсташког похода кога ће водити најмоћнији монарси Европе. Таквој војсци био је потребан мостобран преко кога ће ући у Европу.

Опсада Тира

Освојивши Јерусалим, Саладин креће у освајање свих крсташких градова у Светој земљи. Муслимани су започели опсаду 13. новембра. Напад са мора је у потпуности пропао. Потом се Саладин одлучио на лукавство и поставио Конрадовог оца Вилијама V (кога је заробио у Хитинској бици) као штит од стрела браниоца Тира. Конрад му је поручио да ће радије сам испалити стрелу у свог оца него предати град. Потом је Саладин одлучио ослободити Гаја Лизињанског надајући се да ће његов долазак у Тир довести до сукоба око вођства. Конрад му није ни дозволио да уђе у град. Увидевши да је Тир сувише јак, Саладин диже опсаду 1. јануара 1188. године.

Трећи крсташки рат

Доласком крсташа из Европе настаје борба између краља Гија од Лизињанa и Конрада Монфератског око јерусалимске круне. Ричард I Лавље Срце стаје на страну бившег краља Гија, а Филип II, француски краљ, пружа подршку Конраду. Међутим, Ги је већ био краљ иако је Јерусалим освојен. Због тога је Конрад, како би постао легитимни владар, морао да се ожени једном од јерусалимским принцеза. Изабела, ћерка краља Амалрика, била је већ удата за Хамфрија IV од Торона. Тај брак је, уз благослов папе, поништен, а одмах сутрадан је обављено венчање Изабеле и Конрада. И поред борбе око круне, Ги и Конрад се нису међусобно мрзели. Према неким изворима, Ги је једанпут прискочио Конраду који је био окружен муслиманима и, ризикујући сопствени живот, помогао му да се извуче са бојног поља.

Смрт

Након повлачења краља Филипа из Свете земље, Конрад је преузео команду над француским витезовима. На састанку барона у Аскалону 1192. године, Конрад је изабран за владара већином гласова. Неколико дана касније је крунисан у Акру. Држао је Тир, Акр, Јафу и Аскалон. Већ сутрадан након крунисања (28. априла) Конрада су убили Асасини.

Породично стабло

Извори

Краљеви Јерусалима
Умрли 1192.
Крсташи
Личности Трећег крсташког рата
Маркизи од Монферата

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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Life In Pieces: ratings
Thursday TV Ratings: AP Bio, Arrow, Grey's Anatomy, Mom, The Four
Thursday TV Ratings: Supernatural, Scandal, SWAT, The Four, Superstore
Thursday TV Ratings: Grey's Anatomy, Supernatural, Young Sheldon, The Four, Will & Grace
Thursday TV Ratings: Young Sheldon, The Four, Superstore, Critics Choice Awards, Child Support
Thursday TV Ratings: The Four, Superstore, Mom, Arrow, The Middle
Thursday TV Ratings: Great News, To Tell The Truth, Young Sheldon, IHeartRadio, Can't Stop
Thursday TV Ratings: Great News, Mom, Gotham, Arrow, CMA Country Christmas
Thursday TV Ratings: Life in Pieces, Jingle Ball, Showtime at the Apollo, Prep & Landing, NFL Football
Thursday TV Ratings: The Great American Baking Show, The Orville, Arrow, Mom, NFL Football
Thursday TV Ratings: Young Sheldon, The Orville, Supernatural, Charlie Brown Christmas, NFL Football
Thursday TV Ratings: Supernatural, Mom, The Good Doctor, Gotham, NFL Football
Thursday TV Ratings: Young Sheldon, Supernatural, Gotham, Scandal, NFL Football
Thursday TV Ratings: Grey's Anatomy, SWAT, Gotham, Arrow, NFL Football
Thursday TV Ratings: Mom, Scandal, Supernatural, Gotham, The Good Place
Monday TV Ratings: 9JKL, The Voice, Lucifer, Valor, The Good Doctor
Monday TV Ratings: Supergirl, The Gifted, DWTS, The Voice, 9JKL
Monday TV Ratings: Lucifer, DWTS, The Voice, 9JKL, Supergirl
Monday TV Ratings: The Good Doctor, The Brave, Young Sheldon, SYTYCD, Penn & Teller: Fool Us


Fairway has created top-notch training courses on various .NET and SQL Server topics. These are not the 10-15 minute free ones you get on internet sites. These are 50-60 minute professional videos done by a top trainer. You get expert instruction and a step-by-step approach. You can purchase the full video and sample code in this area of our product catalog.
Creating Collections of Entity Classes As a general rule, you should be creating collections of objects instead of using a Data Reader, a DataSet or a DataTable in your applications. In this seminar you will learn to use a DataTable to fill a collection of objects. You will then see how to use a DataReader to fill the same collection of objects. You will also see how to use LINQ to iterate over a DataTable to build your entity collection.
From Zero to HTML 5 in 60 Minutes This video will show you how to get started with HTML 5. We will cover many of the new elements, new attributes, input types and a little CSS 3 as well.
Introduction to CSS and CSS 3 In order to make your HTML 5 efficient and easy to maintain you must use Cascading Styles Sheets (CSS). This video will present and introduction to CSS and also CSS 3.
Simplify XML Processing using LINQ to XML LINQ technology in .NET has some great hooks into XML that make using XML documents a breeze. This seminar will explore how you will put this technology to work in your applications. Many XPath queries can be greatly simplified using LINQ. Besides the obvious advantages of using LINQ to iterate over XML data you can also use it to create and process XML documents. One great way you can use XML is in prototyping, another is to merge XML data with Word 2007 documents. In this seminar you will learn to use LINQ to XML for real world applications.
Basic XML Processing for .NET Developers XML files are very common in today's programming world. You will most likely need to read files, write files and query XML within your applications. .NET provides a rich set of XML processing classes that you can use to perform all these functions. VS.NET allows you to easily create XML files. In this seminar you will learn how to read and write XML files using the various .NET classes, and how to build XML files using VS.NET. LINQ to XML will also be demonstrated. You will also see how to use XML files to help you prototype applications.
Tips to Spice up your HTML 5 Applications (Even if you are not a Designer) Most programmers are not artists; but you do not to be in order for your HTM 5 applications to look professional. This video will show you how to spice up your HTML 5 interface.
Choosing Between ASP.NET Web Forms and ASP.NET MVC In this video, you will learn the advantages and disadvantages of using ASP.NET Web Forms or ASP.NET MVC for different application scenarios.
Architecting Applications for Multiple UIs This video will take you on a tour of how you should be architecting your application by breaking it up into services. You will learn how to create your business rules and data layer as a service. This video seminar will assume you have some knowledge of .NET but have been developing applications the old way and you are now looking to see how to use WCF and the Model-View-View-Model (MVVM) design pattern to create applications that can be run one more than on user interface platform.
Use XML Files! An Alternative to SQL XML files are very common in today's programming world. You will most likely need to read files, write files and query XML within your applications. .NET provides a rich set of XML processing classes that you can use to perform all these functions. You will learn LINQ to XML and downloading XML using WCF Services.
A Windows 8 Shell for WPF In this seminar you will learn how to create a Windows 8 style shell in XAML. You will learn to create user controls for buttons, a communication system, and a set of "Tiles" you can use to launch features of your application.
MVVM Made Simple Do you find yourself struggling to grasp the concepts of the Model-View-View-Model (MVVM) design pattern? Have you found that you can understand the basics of data binding in WPF and Silverlight, but when you start to read about MVVM you find that you have been dropped off a cliff? Have you looked at some of the XAML frameworks like PRISM only to find that it is just way too complicated for what you need? If this sounds familiar, then don't worry, you are not alone. Many great programmers struggle with this every day. In my humble opinion I say don't try to implement a pure MVVM model, just Keep It Simple! Many times the simplest approach is the best. In this video I will present MVVM step-by-step but not drop you off a cliff. I am not going to take the purist approach to MVVM, but I am going to use the familiar event model in code-behind that you are used to. Yes, you will be using MVVM, but you will do it using a programming model that you are very familiar with. A Sample program is included.
10 Tips to Spice up Your XAML Apps (Even if you are not a designer!) Most programmers are not artists; but you do not to be in order for your applications to look professional. Just a few little touches such as styles, color gradients, pictures, animation and a few other XAML "magic" tricks and your application can look great!
14 Navigation Techniques for your XAML Applications XAML (Silverlight/WPF) does not offer a wide variety of built-in ways to navigate through your business application. However with just a little bit of XAML and code, you can create a variety of XAML navigational scenarios.
WPF Part 1: Learning basic XAML for Business Applications In this video you will learn the basics of xaml and how to use WPF to build business applications. You will learn why WPF was created, how it is different from Windows Forms and why you want to move to WPF.
WPF Part 2: Basic Business Controls and Simple Data Binding In this video seminar series you will learn about the basic building blocks that you will use in WPF to create business applications. You will see step-by-step how to build the basic controls for business applications.
WPF Part 3: More Data Binding In this video you will learn how to use data binding with combo boxes and dependent combo boxes. You will learn to use an ObjectDataProvider and binding to your own classes.
WPF Part 4: The Flexible List Box Control In this video you will learn many uses for the WPF ListBox control. This control is one of the most flexible and you can do tons of stuff with it. You will learn to display multiple columns, horizontal lists, use data triggers and group data. You will also see an example of selecting and modifying data.
WPF Part 5: Using Styles and Resources, Business UI In this video you will learn how to use styles and resources to give your WPF applications a nice look and feel. You will learn how to combine these into Resource Dictionaries and load those dynamically. You will also see how to use various controls such as menus, toolbars and status bars to create typical business application UI.
WPF Part 6: Transforms, Triggers and Animation Part of what makes WPF so great is the ability to rotate anything in the UI, change properties in response to events, and its ability to perform animation all without writing VB or C# code! In this video you will learn the basics of each of these powerful XAML concepts.
WPF Part 7: More Fun with the WPF ListBox The ListBox control in WPF is very flexible. In this video you will learn to display images in the list box, sort, group and filter data. You will see how to dynamically change what the list box displays using templates. You will also learn to use a ValueConverter class to format the data in a list box.
Develop Business Application Screens in WPF In this video you will see a lot of different examples of WPF XAML that you can use to build standard business applications. You will learn about DockPanel, Grid, Menu, Toolbar and StatusBar controls. You will see how to build standard dialogs such as About and Logins. You will see how to build windows that have no border and that are circular instead of a normal rectangle.
Easily Create Skins in WPF Do you want your WPF applications to look different from the normal battleship gray? To do this you need to really dig into control templates and learn to change the look and feel. This seminar will show you step-by-step how to create different skins for controls in WPF. You will learn to use Blend (and WPF itself) to extract control templates. You will be shown samples of how to change labels, buttons, check boxes and other controls to get your own unique look and feel.
Step-By-Step WCF (Windows Communication Foundation) Learning WCF can be a little daunting. This seminar will make it very easy for you to learn the fundamentals of WCF. You will see the presenter take a 2-tier application and convert it into a multi-tier, WCF application. Each step will be explained as to the how and why you need to do that step. You will learn where you should, and where you should not, use WCF in your applications.
Build Unit Tests the Easy Way with VS.NET 2008 Everyone knows that they should be writing better test cases for their applications, but how many of us really do it? In VS.NET 2008 testing is an integrated part of the development environment. So there is no longer any reason to avoid not doing test driven development and automated unit testing. In this seminar you will learn how to architect your applications to make testing quicker and easier. You will learn to use the tools in VS.NET 2008 to help you do the testing.
Debugging Tips & Tricks If you have not really dug into the VS.NET debugger, then this seminar is for you. You will explore all the various breakpoint, tracepoint, data tips, and the myriad features that this powerful debugger let's you use. You will see how to set conditional breakpoints, use the Debug and Trace objects, and learn the difference between the Watch window, locals and immediate window.
Session State Management for ASP.NET Developers Developing web applications requires you to manage "state". All web environments are 'stateless' and thus you have to come up with ways to keep track of user data between web page calls. There are many ways to accomplish state management. What are all the ways, and which ones are best? That is what you will learn in this seminar.
Beyond Standard SQL Queries The T-SQL language is very rich. Besides standard SELECT and JOIN statements, there is a lot more you can do. In this seminar you will learn to use some of those statements that you may have not yet been exposed to. Learn to aggregate data, to use the Case statement, the Group By and Having clauses, and much more.
A Data Driven Messaging System Displaying informational messages to users of an application is something each of us needs to do. Instead of hard coding these messages, you should use a data-driven approach. Normal resource files can be quite limiting. In this seminar you will learn to use XML files to store and retrieve your messages. You will learn how you can override the somewhat cryptic .NET exception messages with easier to understand messages of your own.


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New foundation initiative is tackling climate protection in the transport sector
Agora Verkehrswende will deliver discourses, scenarios and strategies for decarbonising the German transport sector by 2050. The initiative was officially launched on 1 July.
Berlin, 07/01/2016
In order to achieve the German climate protection goals following the Paris Climate Agreement, the CO2 emissions produced by vehicles, vessels and aircrafts must be reduced to almost zero by 2050. Currently, the transport sector is still responsible for about 20 percent of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions. In dialogue with key stakeholders, Agora Verkehrswende will develop the foundations for a comprehensive climate change strategy for the transport sector. Agora Verkehrswende, which is a joint initiative established by the Stiftung Mercator and the European Climate Foundation, has now officially begun its work. The foundations established the think tank at the beginning of this year and have furnished it with a budget of five million euros until the end of 2018.
The initiative is focussing on the societal discourse. In Agora Verkehrswende's high-level Council, selected representatives from politics, business, academia and civil society will discuss promising paths for achieving the transport evolution. The Chairman of the Agora Verkehrswende Council is Achim Steiner, who until June was the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director. The scientific basis for the discourse and the development of strategies in the form of analyses and studies will be developed by a ten-member interdisciplinary team with Christian Hochfeld as Executive Director.
"When we consider that about a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases come from the transport sector, it is clear that the turnaround heralded in Paris cannot be achieved without fundamental changes in the transport sector. That means transforming mobility in the 21st century," says Achim Steiner, Chairman of the Agora Verkehrswende Council. "I'm convinced that major changes in society need a dialogue platform like Agora Verkehrswende."
Central to the work of Agora Verkehrswende will be the conversion of the entire transport system for people and goods to electricity and fuels from renewable energy sources. This presupposes that the transport system is as efficient as possible by preventing unnecessary traffic, shifting traffic to more environmentally friendly modes of transport and by technically improving the individual transport modes. The climate-friendly development of urban transport is seen as a key component in this transformation.
"Agora Verkehrswende is calling on government, industry and society to address the challenges and opportunities presented by the transport evolution as part of a constructive dialogue. We want to create understanding for and confidence in the transport system's ability to change. It is therefore important that we can demonstrate that Germany as centre for mobility and business will benefit from the transport evolution," says Agora Verkehrswende's Executive Director, Christian Hochfeld.
"The decarbonisation of transport is a new focus area in the Mercator Foundation's Climate Change cluster. The success of Agora Energiewende has encouraged us to provide a service with Agora Verkehrswende that works on the same principle. We therefore hope that we can contribute to a structured and goal-oriented debate for providing effective climate protection in the transport sector," says Dr Lars Grotewold, Head of Climate Change at the Mercator Foundation.
"We're convinced that a German transport evolution will act as a beacon for European and global climate protection," says Dr Christoph Wolff, Managing Director of the European Climate Foundation in explaining the commitment of his foundation. "It's not just humans who will benefit from less pollution and noise. The transport evolution also offers enormous opportunities for the European economy."
Agora Verkehrswende was officially launched on 1 July with an event held in the Mercator Foundation's ProjektZentrum Berlin. Around 100 invited guests discussed the dimensions and challenges of the transport evolution with high-level experts. In addition to Council Chairman Achim Steiner, presentations were also given by Professor Klaus Töpfer (Chairman of the Agora Energiewende Council), Thomas Becker (Vice President of the BMW Group), Jochen Flasbarth (State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety), Andreas Gehlhaar (Head of Environmental Affairs at Deutsche Bahn AG), Dr Patrick Graichen (Executive Director of Agora Energiewende), Winfried Hermann (Minister of Transport and Infrastructure in Baden-Württemberg), Helge Pols (Head of Division at Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure), Oliver Wolff (CEO of the Association of German Transport Companies VDV) and Dr Wiebke Zimmer (Deputy Head of Resources and Mobility at the Institute for Applied Ecology). The event was recorded on video and a compilation will be available shortly at www.agora-verkehrswende.de.
Further information is available at www.agora-verkehrswende.de.
Christian Hochfeld, Executive Director of Agora Verkehrswende
He can be contacted through Steffi Niemzoksteffi.niemzok@agora-verkehrswende.de
T 030 – 847129113
M 0179 – 5241986
Cathrin Sengpiehl, Communications Manager, Stiftung Mercatorcathrin.sengpiehl@stiftung-mercator.de
T 0201 – 24522 – 841
M 0160 – 96923504
Katrin Riegger, Head of German Communications, European Climate Foundation
katrin.riegger@europeanclimate.org
Let your contacts know about our work
Communication Manager Press


Traffic Engineering and Operational Studies has been a core service at ICON since the firm was founded in 1999. Led by Principal Angelo G. Belluccia, PE, the Traffic Group provides services for both the public and private sectors. Icon's clientele includes FDOT Districts One and Seven, retail and residential land developers, universities and local municipalities. ICON provides traffic engineering solutions for both urban and rural projects, ranging in size and complexity for multiple project types, such as highway design, roadway improvements associated with new developments, pedestrian safety improvements, and intersection improvements. Specific services include design for signalization, signing and pavement marking, lighting, traffic safety, traffic calming, access management, and LAP coordination.
ICON designs solutions to keep traffic moving safely throughout the Tampa Bay Area.
Notable projects include FDOT District 1 Traffic Engineering Studies, USF Traffic Engineering Consultant, and Hernando County Traffic Engineering Consultant.


Stick these on your fridge! American Christian Fish Magnet. 10 stars represent 10 commandments, Verse 11 Chron. 7:14 "IF my people, who are called by my name.......... give these out at your next event. Size is the same as a standard business card. 2" x 3.5"


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Watch ten minutes of bizarre Atomic Heart gameplay
By Andy Chalk 2019-01-24T23:45:10Z
Atomic Heart is a weird, alt-history Soviet FPS with killer robots and farm animals.
We've previously described Atomic Heart as an "offbeat Soviet-era shooter," and also "strange" and "weird," but all we've actually seen of it so far are a few brief, bizarre clips that look like—well, the truth is, I don't even know. I like it an awful lot, though. And now, courtesy of IGN, we can finally lay eyes on some proper gameplay—and as promised, it is weird.
There's a lot going on here: You can see elements of BioShock, Stalker, Zeno Clash, Cradle, Condemned: Criminal Origins, and Fallout, and that's before you get to the underwater farm animals and Brezhnev disco. I love the way it looks but I wonder if developer Mundfish will be able to meet its ambitious goals: Its previous game, Soviet Lunapark VR, launched on Steam last summer to decidedly "mixed" reviews, and by all appearances Atomic Heart is a much greater undertaking.
As for what it's all about, the Mundfish website is sort of helpful, but mostly not. "The story is about all the things that could have happened in the reality of the USSR but didn't. Technical revolution has already occurred, robots, the Internet, holograms have already been invented, but all these innovations are immersed in the atmosphere of communism, imperialism and confrontation with the West," it says. "The protagonist of the game is a Soviet KGB officer and his Party sends him to the facility 3826 and are waiting for the report."
As shown in the trailer, the game world will be divided into several different regions, some on the surface and some in the abandoned underground areas of the facility. Melee combat will be a big part of the game, and most of the enemies will be robots constructed at the facility that are basically commu-Cylons, "made to serve the needs of the Soviet industry or to help Soviet citizens in daily life." Naturally, they also come equipped with combat subroutines in case war breaks out.
Atomic Heart is expected to come out sometime this year, and I am very much looking forward to it.
Mundfish


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Rachel Baker
Hilarious and thoughtful cabaret exploring queer identity in the Caribbean
From emerging company Lagahoo Theatre Company comes Splintered, a weird and wonderful cabaret that combines comedy skits with real interviews and personal experiences to explore the challenges of being queer in the Caribbean. Directed by Emily Aboud, this fantastic blend of comedy and political comment is both a piece of protest and an invitation, to people of all sexualities, identities, classes and colour to join in the celebration of queerness that is the ultimate way to overcome adversity.
Charlotte, Sanaa and Natasha are three outstanding performers, engaging the audience in their struggle with empathy and flair. The repetition of some of the skits is comedy at its finest, while a queer version of Chicago's 'Cellblock Tango' is the highlight of the evening. The performance then seamlessly moves on to touching interviews with queer Caribbean women, and dramatisations of the difficult experience of coming out. These scenes damn the faults of Caribbean homophobia while maintaining a wholehearted celebration of the culture's strengths. The evening ends with a declaration from the performers of where to go from here, which isn't necessarily needed alongside the clarity and effectiveness of each act.
Splintered is the perfect combination of entertainment and political comment. It addresses intersectionality and proclaims solidarity and strength in an inclusive, welcoming atmosphere.
Bedlam Theatre, until 25 Aug (not 13,20), 9.30pm, £10 (£8).
Lagahoo Productions 'What you are about to witness, theydies and gentlethem, is a cabaret of truths. This is a show about Caribbean people being queer. In our experience, it is damned hard'. Splintered is a theatre-cabaret of rebellion and empowerment, celebrating being queer and being Caribbean. Based upon interviews…


Osteopaths believe that our health and well-being depend on the skeleton, muscles, ligaments and connective tissues working smoothly together. They use touch, physical manipulation, stretching and massage to try to relieve muscle tension, enhance blood and nerve supply to tissues, and help the body's own healing processes.
Most people see an osteopath without being referred to one by their GP (this is 'self-referral'). However, patients are encouraged to keep both their GP and osteopath fully informed, so that their medical records are up to date and complete.
In a first consultation, an osteopath will put together a full case history of the patient's symptoms, as well as information about their lifestyle and diet.
Osteopaths examine areas of the body using touch ('palpation') to diagnose conditions and identify the body's points of weakness or excessive strain. They might watch the patient doing some simple movements to help them make a diagnosis.
The osteopath will discuss with the patient the most appropriate treatment plan, estimating the likely number of sessions needed to treat the patient's condition effectively. If the osteopath believes that the condition is unlikely to respond to osteopathic treatment, they advise the patient on how to seek further care.
Most osteopaths are self-employed. There are opportunities for osteopaths to join an established practice. Osteopaths can also work in health centres and large companies, providing staff care and advising management teams.
Osteopaths can work in the NHS as private contractors, delivering services to patients. However, this varies depending on the policy of local NHS Trusts.
Occupational health within companies and organisations is a growth area for osteopathic practice.
To practise as an osteopath, you must be registered with the General Osteopathic Council (GOsC). To register, you must complete a course that is accredited by the GOsC.
A list of accredited schools and colleges is available on the GOsC website. Qualifications are usually bachelors degrees in osteopathy - a BSc, BOst or BOstMed, or a master's degree in osteopathy (MOst), which is also undergraduate. Courses are usually four years full-time or five years part-time, or a mixture of the two.
Degree courses include anatomy, pathology, pharmacology, nutrition and biomechanics, plus at least 1,000 hours of clinical training.


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Contaminants are substances that have not been intentionally added to food. They may be present as a result of its production, packaging, transport or holding.
back to Food Safety
Causes of foodborne illness
Buying food & eating out
What are contaminants in food?
There is a number of ways that chemical contaminants can enter our food chain via the environment, through cooking and processing, and through materials that have been used in packaging or handling (also known as food contact materials). These chemicals can have a negative impact on the quality of food and can also lead to toxic effects if consumed at high levels or over a long period of time. There are therefore legal measures in place to prevent contamination and ensure that products with unsafe levels are not placed on the market. Food Standards Scotland works with the Food Standards Agency and other government agencies to assess the potential food safety risks arising from chemical contaminants and take appropriate action to protect public health.
The chemical contaminants that are a priority for FSS are described below.
Natural Toxins
Mycotoxins are naturally occurring toxic chemicals produced by certain fungus mainly Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium genera. Mycotxins are produced when environmental conditions such as temperature and moisture are favourable. Changes in weather patterns due to climate change are altering the prevalence of such toxins in food crops.
Marine biotoxins
Biotoxins can be produced by certain species of naturally occurring marine phytoplankton, and detected levels are higher in summer months. Food Standards Scotland has a monitoring programme in place that regularly monitors shellfish harvesting waters and closes areas where biotoxins are detected at levels which exceed the legal limit. The four main groups of marine biotoxins which are monitored in Scotland can cause the following illnesses:
Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning (ASP)
Caused by the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) and its variants. ASP is characterized by gastrointestinal disorders (vomiting, diarrhea, abdominal pain) with higher doses leading to more serious neurological problems (confusion, short-term memory loss, disorientation, seizure, coma), particularly in elderly patients.
Diarrhetic Shellfish Poisoning (DSP)
Caused by a group of lipophilic toxins including okadaic acid, and dinophysistoxins (collectively known as DSTs). DSP generally causes mild gastrointestinal disorders which can last from 2-3 days including nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, and abdominal pain, which can be accompanied by chills, headache, and fever.
Azaspiracid shellfish poisoning (AZP)
Caused by the lipophillic toxin azaspiracid and several derivatives (AZAs). To date, more than 30 AZA analogs have been identified, with three analogs routinely monitored in shellfish. Symptoms are predominantly gastrointestinal disturbances resembling those of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning and include nausea, vomiting, stomach cramps, and diarrhea. Illness is self-limiting, with symptoms lasting 2 or 3 days.
Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP)
Caused by a group of water soluble neurotoxins that are collectively referred to as saxitoxins or paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs). PSP causes neurologic symptoms ranging from a tingling of the lips, mouth, and tongue to numbness, weakness, dizziness, and headache; and in severe cases can lead to respiratory paralysis and death.
Further information on marine biotoxins, our shellfish monitoring programme, and guidance on shellfish safety can be found on our Shellfish pages.
Environmental and Process Contaminants
Acrylamide is a chemical compound that typically forms in starchy foods when they are baked, fried or roasted at high-temperatures (120 - 150°C). When the sugar and amino acid naturally present in starchy foods are heated, they combine to form substances giving new flavours and aromas. This also causes the browning of the food and produces acrylamide. For further information visit the European Food Safety Authority website.
Dioxins and polychlorinated biphenols (PCBs) are chemicals that get into our food from the environment.
Low levels of dioxins and PCBs have no immediate effect on our health but can cause problems if they are absorbed into our bodies at high levels for long periods. Foods high in animal fat, such as milk, meat, fish and eggs (and foods produced with them) are the main source of dioxins and PCBs, although all food contains at least low levels of these chemicals. The levels of dioxins and PCBs in any one individual's diet will vary depending on the amounts and types of foods they eat.
The risk to health comes from eating food with high levels of dioxins and PCBs over a long period. They have been shown to cause a wide range of effects in certain animals, including cancer and damage to the immune and reproductive systems, although it appears that people may be less sensitive.
Where do dioxins and PCBs come from?
Dioxins have never been produced intentionally. They may be formed as unwanted by-products in a variety of industrial and combustion processes, including household fires. Most industrial releases of dioxins are strictly controlled under pollution prevention and control regulations.
PCBs have been used since the early 1930s, mainly in electrical equipment. The manufacture and general use of PCBs stopped in the 1970s and is no longer permitted in the UK. The only PCBs remaining in use in the UK are sealed inside some older electrical equipment.
Dioxins and PCBs from these sources may be released in small quantities into the air, water or land. Animals and fish then take them up from their food and any soil and sediment they take in while they are feeding. The chemicals are absorbed into their body fat, where they accumulate.
Phthalates is the name for a group of chemicals that have a variety of industrial uses and are found in a wide range of household and consumer goods. In food packaging, phthalate use is limited mainly to making materials such as adhesives and some printing inks. Phthalates take a long time to degrade, or break down, in the environment. This means that they may be found at low levels in some foods. Phthalates are used as a medium to carry other substances that perfume cosmetics. They are present in children's toys, intravenous blood bags and other medical equipment, some paints and vinyl flooring. .
How could environmental contaminants affect my health?
In recent years, there has been some concern that phthalates may have a harmful effect on human reproductive development, because they have been reported to be endocrine disrupters. Endocrine disrupters are substances that can interact with hormone systems. Particular concern has focused on the sex hormones – the female oestrogens and male androgens – because of their important roles in the development of the reproductive system. Although there is evidence that some wildlife species have been affected by exposure to endocrine disrupters, there is still no conclusive evidence of a link between harmful effects on human reproductive health and exposure to these chemicals. In animal studies, phthalates have been found to affect the liver, but this is not thought to be a risk for humans at the levels of phthalates that we might consume in food.
Are phthalates avoidable?
It would be difficult to avoid them. Phthalates have been widely used for over 50 years and are found throughout developed communities around the world.
What are pesticides and how are they used?
Pesticides are substances that are used to kill or control pests. They are mainly used in farming to protect food crops. Different pesticides are used for different reasons.
For example, pesticides can:
prevent disease in crops
kill pests such as rats, mice and insects
control weeds
prevent mould from growing on crops while they are stored.
By protecting crops, pesticides help to provide a plentiful supply of food all the year round. If pesticides were not used, this could affect the availability and cost of food.
Are there any pesticides in the food chain?
Sometimes traces of pesticides can be left in food, or on the outside of food. These are called pesticide residues. There are strict limits on the levels of pesticide residues that are allowed to be in food. Washing or peeling fruit and veg can remove some pesticide residues.
Are pesticide residues monitored?
Yes, there is a national monitoring programme overseen by the Expert committee on Pesticide residue in food (PRiF) ), which is an independent committee of experts. This programme measures the levels of pesticide residues in many types of food, including fruit and vegetables, meat, fish, dairy products, baby food and processed foods, to check that residues are within legal and safe limits. These limits apply to food produced in the UK and imported food.
Pesticide approval process
The European Commission is responsible for the approval of active substances for use in pesticides in European Union Member States. Approval is only given after a rigorous lengthy assessment and scrutiny process which involves the European Food Safety Authority, Member States and scientific experts.
When an active substance is approved in Europe, companies can apply to the regulatory authority within each Member State, which in the UK is the Chemicals Regulation Directorate (CRD) of the Health and Safety Executive, for permission to place their product on the market.
Radiological Contaminants
Radioactivity exists naturally in the environment and is also created by human activity such as nuclear power stations and military operations. Inevitably some of this enters the food chain and levels are strictly monitored and controlled to protect public health. The level of man-made radioactivity in food and the environment is assessed jointly by Food Standards Scotland, the Food Standards Agency and the UK's Environment Agencies and reported annually in the Radioactivity in Food and the Environment (RIFE) report.
Our Food Safety and regulation pages cover all of our advice and guidance for business, industry and Local Authority enforcement officers.


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Health + Ancestry Service C$249
Ancestry + Traits Service C$129
Join our gene pool.
Director/Fellow - Target Discovery
South San Francisco, California, United States
23andMe, the leading consumer genetics company, has accumulated a wealth of genotypic and phenotypic information from participants committed to improving human health through advances in genomics. Our Therapeutics team uses this data to discover and develop novel medicines to treat important diseases. The team currently has research programs across several therapeutic areas, including oncology, skin, respiratory and cardiovascular disease.
We are seeking a highly motivated and collaborative Ph.D. or M.D./Ph.D. Director to lead target discovery and validation efforts using human genetics and genomics, including the 23andMe GWAS database. Our successful candidate will be someone who is inspired and driven to discover and develop treatments for patients with serious unmet medical needs.
This role will report to the VP, Drug Discovery and will partner with key stakeholders in Therapeutics and Research to discover and develop target hypotheses based on compelling human genetics. More information about our Therapeutics team is available at https://therapeutics.23andme.com/.
Leadership of 23andMe therapeutics new target discovery efforts. This is a key position within discovery, collaborating with Statistical Genetics, Computational Biology, Development physicians and Discovery biology Scientists to identify target hypotheses and build a robust early portfolio from our GWAS and PheWas database covering a range of therapeutic areas
Formulating and implementing appropriate strategies to identify and prioritize phenotypes, targets and pathways identified by analysis of our GWAS and PheWAS databases and the scientific literature
Scientific and operational leadership of nominated targets including leading peer review processes and prioritization discussions with Therapeutics leadership
Building collaborative relationships with key internal stakeholders cross-functionally
Setting direction and managing external target discovery and drug development research efforts
Contribute to the leadership of the Drug Discovery organization, including modeling strategic, organizational and cultural best behaviors
Recruiting, managing, and retaining a talented group of scientists
Establishing and contributing to a culture that values inclusion, diversity and scientific rigor
Responsibility for leading joint scientific teams with our collaboration partner, GSK
What you'll bring
PhD or MD/PhD in biological or clinical sciences with demonstrated success in identifying and advancing programs in more than one therapeutic area
Expertise in target discovery from human genetics and genomics
Excellent communication and cross-functional leadership
Experience building teams and coaching and mentoring more junior scientists
Experience in industry drug discovery preferred, including exposure to small and large molecule and other therapeutic modalities
Working knowledge of GWAS, target mining/validation and functional genomics
Experience in cross-managing/leading external collaborations with both academic and industry partners
23andMe, Inc. is the leading consumer genetics and research company. Our mission is to help people access, understand and benefit from the human genome. The company was named by MIT Technology Review to its "50 Smartest Companies, 2017" list, and named one of Fast Company's "25 Brands That Matter Now, 2017". 23andMe has over 10 million customers worldwide, with ~80 percent of customers consented to participate in research.
At 23andMe, we value a diverse, inclusive workforce and we provide equal employment opportunity for all applicants and employees. All qualified applicants for employment will be considered without regard to an individual's race, color, sex, gender identity, gender expression, religion, age, national origin or ancestry, citizenship, physical or mental disability, medical condition, family care status, marital status, domestic partner status, sexual orientation, genetic information, military or veteran status, or any other basis protected by federal, state or local laws. If you are unable to submit your application because of incompatible assistive technology or a disability, please contact us at accomodations-ext@23andme.com. 23andMe will reasonably accommodate qualified individuals with disabilities to the extent required by applicable law.
Please note: 23andMe does not accept agency resumes and we are not responsible for any fees related to unsolicited resumes. Thank you.


Is there a wisdom emanating from the great mass of Americans — a common sense?
A new USA Today/Bipartisan Policy Center poll found that Americans still possess a strong civic-mindedness, but are souring on government and politics: "Americans by more than 2-1 say the best way to make positive changes in society is through volunteer organizations and charities, not by being active in government." This is even more true of younger people than older folks, like me.
And yet, despite the distaste increasing numbers of Americans have towards their governments, they aren't turning against service. They're just switching from the realm of the State to the realm of communities and non-profits.
This seems entirely rational, a welcome development. Rational, in that, yes, of course today's big government politics is poisonous. And government doesn't work the way people dream it might. It's not magic. And there are sharp diminishing returns. That's why the political realm works best when distinctly constrained.
That is, the best governments govern least, when limitations — constitutional checks and balances, a rule of law, term limits, etc. — are placed upon its operations.
Now, there's no real magic in the non-profit sector, either. It's not as easy to give effectively as it is garner donations from the sympathetic. But, more good news, the charitable sector may be on the brink of a major revolution, too.
While hordes of well-meaning folks turning off of politics may cede ground to the politically unsound, better, younger, and more enthusiastic (and even ambitious) folks entering the voluntary sector has to be a good thing.
I enjoy volunteering. It is good for the soul.
Unfortunately, too many non-profit employees are profiting from government grants, rather than from privately raised funds. Government does this because it's more efficient than government run welfare. But that doesn't remove the fact that the "contributions" to the charity were taken by force. Nor does it change the fact that the pay for many in non-profits, looks quite profitable, like the United Way where the head makes over $400,000/yr. Many people working for non-profits, get quite a profit from the time they sell. You could say, that Stalin ran a non-profit organization as well – what government is in the business of making a profit? None that I know of.
I'm all for private charities, and not for government welfare whether done by government or non-profits.
The voluntary sector isn't necessarily a private sector. Many who seek to 'serve' make their living off taxpayers every bit as much as those who work in government. While many people donate their time and effort toward making their community a better place, many others make a living off 'public service'. That money comes from you and me.
Many "non-profits" aren't really–in FL., there was a corp. set up as a "non-profit" ( and as I recall) run Internet cafe's and donate the profit to charity –help disabled veterans, as I recall.
They did donate 1/2 of 1% or so (sort of what Al Gore a few year ago gave to charity). So the FL legislature BANNED all Internet cafes including those that did nothing wrong. And some leading charities line the pockets of their executives very well.


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\section{Introduction}
\label{sec:intro}
\input{introduction}

\section{Problem Setup}
\label{sec:setup}
\input{setup}

\section{Proposed Approach}
\label{sec:approach}
\input{approach}

\section{Results and Findings}
\label{sec:results}
\input{results}

\section{Conclusions}
\label{sec:conclusion}
\input{conclusion}

\bibliographystyle{splncs04}

\subsection{Generalization Performance}
In this experiment, we build predictor models with and without an additional \textit{loss estimator} module (Fig. ~\ref{fig:blockdiag}), and present comparisons on the ISIC 2019 dataset.

\paragraph{\textbf{Setup}}.  We learned the predictor models using the ISIC 2019 dataset (Task1) -- we used $90-10$ stratified random splits for train/validation and report performance from $3$ independent trials. We adopted standard data pre-processing steps used for this data~\cite{gessert2020skin} -- all images were center cropped to $0.85$ times its original width, adjusted for color constancy and resized to $224 \times 224 \times 3$. Further, we performed data augmentation (horizontal/vertical flips, jitter, rotation and translation). For all experiments, we adopted a  VGG-16 network (pre-trained on imagenet) and fine-tuned it for $50$ epochs. The loss estimator utilized the activations of the intermediate convolutional layers $4$, $7$, $10$ and $13$ from the predictor followed by affine transformations using linear layers of $128$ units each. These individual representations are then concatenated and transformed using a final linear layer to obtain the loss estimate for that sample. For model training, we used the following hyperparameters: learning rate of $1e-4$ reduced by a factor of $0.5$ every $10$ epochs, Adam optimizer with $0.9$ momentum and $5e-4$ weight decay, dropout of $0.4$, and batch size of $64$. In addition, to handle the class imbalances and perform well on undersampled classes (e.g. AK, DF, BCC), we used weighted random sampling and a weighted cross-entropy loss. Following common practice, we compared the models using the class-specific sensitivity and balanced accuracy scores.
\paragraph{\textbf{Findings}}. As showed in Figure \ref{fig:gen}, our approach convincingly outperforms the vanilla model in classifying in-distribution data. Jointly training the loss estimator alongside the predictor (i) allows training with higher learning rates (faster convergence), (ii) achieves higher performance on minority classes (BCC, AK, DF), while also improving performance for densely sampled classes (NV, MEL), and (iii) produces $\sim 5$\% improvement over the vanilla model in terms of balanced accuracy score ($77.9$\% as opposed to $73.1$\% of the vanilla model).

\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[width=0.99\textwidth]{figs/sens.pdf}
\caption{Performance comparison of the vanilla and proposed models using sensitivity and balanced accuracy metrics (results averaged across $3$ independent trials) on the ISIC 2019 lesion dataset.} \label{fig:gen}
\end{figure}

\subsection{OOD Detection}
In this section, we setup an experiment to study and evaluate the effectiveness of the loss estimator-regularized predictor in detecting out-of-distribution images. We begin by describing the training setup, the OOD detector implemented following~\cite{liang2018enhancing}, and the metrics utilized to for evaluation.

\paragraph{\textbf{Setup.}} In this study, we utilized 5 out of the 8 lesion image categories from the ISIC 2019 training dataset, namely MEL, NV, BCC, AK and DF, to define the in-distribution data. This selection amounts to a total of $21,826$ samples. We performed a $90 - 10$  stratified random split of images from these 5 classes to train and validate the models. We used the same architectures as the previous experiment to implement the predictor and loss estimator models. Note, we used the the ADAM optimizer with a learning rate of $1e-4$ and trained the models for $50$ epochs. For comparison, we also trained a vanilla model under the same experiment settings.

\paragraph{\textbf{ODIN Detector.}}In order to evaluate the model reliability in rejecting samples (defer to make predictions) when presented images from distinctly different distributions, we adopt ODIN (Out of DIstribution detector in Neural networks)~\cite{liang2018enhancing}, a popular approach for detecting OOD data based upon the calibrated confidence (softmax) scores. In particular, ODIN employs temperature scaling to the softmax probabilities and applies controlled input image perturbations to enlarge the confidence score gap between the in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. For an input sample $\mathbf{x}$, ODIN first computes the confidence score from temperature~($T$) scaled softmax probabilities:
\begin{equation}
    S(\mathbf{x}, T) = \max_{c} \frac{\exp({\mathcal{F}_{c}(\mathbf{x}})/T)}{\sum_{k=1}^{K}\exp({\mathcal{F}_{k}(\mathbf{x}})/T)}
\end{equation}
where $\mathcal{F}_{c}(\mathbf{x})$ is the predictive model output for the $c^{th}$ class in a $K$-way classification problem. In addition to temperature scaling, ODIN also systematically perturbs the input by a factor of $\eta$ in the direction of the gradient of the loss w.r.t $\mathbf{x}$, in order to improve the softmax probabilities. Formally,
\begin{equation}
    \hat{\mathbf{x}} = \mathbf{x} - \eta \text{ sign}(-\nabla_{\mathbf{x}}\text{log}(S(\mathbf{x}, T))
\end{equation}Finally, the confidence score from the perturbed image is used to determine if $\mathrm{x}$ is an inlier sample --  based on a user-specified threshold $\gamma$.

\begin{figure*}[t]
    \centering
    \subfloat[S][B-Box]{\includegraphics[width=0.16\textwidth]{figs/bbox.png}}
    \hfill
    \subfloat[S][B-Box-70]{\includegraphics[width=0.16\textwidth]{figs/bbox_70.png}}
    \hfill
    \subfloat[S][Imagenet]{\includegraphics[width=0.16\textwidth]{figs/imagenet.jpeg}}
    \hfill
    \subfloat[S][NCT]{\includegraphics[width=0.16\textwidth]{figs/nct.jpeg}}
    \hfill
    \subfloat[S][Clin Skin]{\includegraphics[width=0.16\textwidth]{figs/clin_skin.jpeg}}
    \hfill
    \subfloat[S][Derm Skin]{\includegraphics[width=0.16\textwidth]{figs/derm_skin.jpg}}
    \caption{Examples from the OOD Datasets used for our experiments.}
    \label{fig:ood_examples}
\end{figure*}
\begin{table}[t]
	\centering
	\renewcommand*{\arraystretch}{1.5}
	\caption{Evaluating the OOD detection performance of the ODIN detector using both the vanilla and proposed methods. The in-distribution data includes validation set samples belonging to the $5$ classes. The hyperparameters for ODIN are fine tuned on the NCT dataset and evaluated on the remaining datasets.}
	\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%
		\label{ood_perf}
		\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}
			\hline
			\multirow{3}{*}{\textbf{OOD Dataset}} &
			\multicolumn{5}{c|}{\textbf{Metrics in \%}}
			\\ \cline{2-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{} & \textbf{FPR@TPR95} & \textbf{DTERR} & \textbf{AUROC}  & \textbf{AUPR-In} & \textbf{AUPR-Out} \\
			\cline{2-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{} & \multicolumn{5}{c|}{\textbf{Vanilla/Proposed}}
			\\ \cline{1-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{NCT} & $51.41$/$\mathbf{17.93}$ & $21.44$/$\mathbf{10.19}$ & $87.27$/$\mathbf{96.43}$ & $91.41$/$\mathbf{97.73}$ & $81.71$/$\mathbf{94.43}$
			\\ \cline{1-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{B-Box} & $36.43$/$\mathbf{5.16}$ & $17.84$/$\mathbf{4.91}$ & $90.74$/$\mathbf{98.74}$ & $90.91$/$\mathbf{98.71}$ & $91.15$/$\mathbf{98.71}$
			\\   \cline{1-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{B-Box-70} & $\mathbf{0.0}$/$\mathbf{0.0}$ & $\mathbf{0.1}$/$\mathbf{0.1}$ & $\mathbf{100.0}$/$\mathbf{100.0}$ & $\mathbf{99.97}$/$\mathbf{99.97}$ & $\mathbf{99.98}$/$\mathbf{99.98}$
			\\ \cline{1-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{ImageNet} & $71.05$/$\mathbf{47.35}$ & $28.7$/$\mathbf{20.92}$ & $79.03$/$\mathbf{87.57}$ & $81.68$/$\mathbf{87.74}$ & $76.38$/$\mathbf{86.84}$
			\\ \cline{1-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{Clin-Skin} & $65.56$/$\mathbf{35.13}$ & $25.0$/$\mathbf{14.11}$ & $82.58$/$\mathbf{92.15}$ & $93.37$/$\mathbf{96.71}$ & $61.07$/$\mathbf{79.09}$
			\\ \cline{1-6}

			\multirow{1}{*}{Derm-Skin} & $56.04$/$\mathbf{21.6}$ & $21.6$/$\mathbf{10.38}$  & $87.14$/$\mathbf{95.69}$ & $91.22$/$\mathbf{97.2}$ & $82.59$/$\mathbf{92.14}$
			\\ \cline{1-6}

			 \hline
		\end{tabular}
	}
\end{table}

\paragraph{\textbf{OOD Datasets.}}In order to demonstrate the behavior of the predictor under a wide variety of unknown data regimes, we consider the following benchmark datasets, following~\cite{pacheco2020out}. In particular, we consider (i) \textit{B-Box}: $2025$ skin lesion images corrupted by a black bounding box on the lesion region; (ii) \textit{B-Box-70}: $2454$ skin lesion images with black bounding boxes that mask $\sim$ 70\% of the lesion region; (iii) \textit{ImageNet}~\cite{imagenet_cvpr09}: - $3000$ images randomly chosen from the ImageNet database; (iv) \textit{NCT}: $1350$ histopathology images of human colorectal cancer acquired from ~\cite{kather2019predicting} (v) \textit{Clin-Skin}: $723$ clinical images of healthy skin; (vi) \textit{Derm-Skin}: $1565$ dermoscopy images of skin obtained by randomly cropping patches in the ISIC2019 dataset. Figure \ref{fig:ood_examples} shows sample images from each of these datasets.

\paragraph{\textbf{Evaluation Metrics.}} We adopt these widely adopted metrics to quantify the OOD detection performance: (i) \textbf{False Positive Rate $@95$\% True Positive Rate}(FPR@TPR95): Probability that an OOD sample is misclassified as an in-distribution sample when the TPR is as high as $95$ \%; (ii) \textbf{Detection Error}(DTERR): Minimum probability of mis-detecting an inlier sample as an OOD sample over all possible thresholds; (iii) \textbf{AUROC}: Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic curve (TPR vs FPR) is a threshold independent metric which reflects the probability that a in-distribution image is assigned a higher confidence over the OOD sample; (iv) \textbf{AUPR-In} and \textbf{AUPR-Out}: Area under the Precision-Recall curve where the in distribution and the OOD samples are considered as positives respectively.

\paragraph{\textbf{Findings.}} In Table \ref{ood_perf}, we report the OOD detection performance of the proposed approach against the baseline vanilla predictor over a variety of datasets characterized by apparent distribution changes. The hyperparameters $T$ and $\eta$ were fine tuned for both the models using the NCT dataset and evaluated on the remaining datasets. It must be noted that while using the ODIN detector, we utilized the validation split of the 5 class ISIC 2019 dataset as the inlier distribution and the other listed datasets as OOD to compute the metrics. It can be observed from Table \ref{ood_perf} that the proposed model, which is effectively regularized by the loss estimator, significantly outperforms the baseline, thus implying improved model reliability under data regime changes. While it is more challenging to detect OOD samples which exhibit semantic similarities with the in-distribution data~\cite{cao2020benchmark}, e.g., \textit{Clin-Skin} and \textit{Derm-Skin}, we find that by coupling the uncertainty estimator during training, we can still effectively detect these shifts with improved specificity.

\begin{figure*}[t]
    \centering
   \includegraphics[width=0.99\textwidth]{figs/newclasses.pdf}
    \caption{Performance of the proposed approach in detecting new classes unseen during training.}
    \label{fig:newclasses}
\end{figure*}

\subsection{Detecting New Classes}
In this experiment, we evaluate the ability of our proposed approach in detecting classes of data that are unseen during model training. Similar to the previous experiment, we utilized both the vanilla and the proposed models trained on the $5$ class ISIC 2019 dataset (Section 4.2). Subsequently, we introduced images from the $3$ remaining classes (BKL, VASC and SCC) as novel data at test time. We expect a reliable model to effectively detect these samples as OOD, thus enabling us defer from making an incorrect diagnosis. We find that the task of detecting new classes is significantly more challenging due to the less apparent semantic discrepancies between the observed and the unseen classes. From the results in Figure \ref{fig:newclasses}, we notice that the proposed approach still outperforms standard deep models (in terms of the AUROC metric -- Vanilla: $56.3$\%, Proposed : $65.26$\%) in detecting samples from unseen classes. This further emphasizes the value of loss estimators in controlling unintended generalization of clinical predictive models.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


I love Heroku. It's amazing for hosting Rails apps and it takes away a huge amount of the sysadmin headaches. The uptime is incredible, the support is great - but there is one drawback. It can get expensive.
If your Rails app has tasks that you want to run in the background - and this is an extremely common use case - then out of the box you need to have an instance of a Worker running, which costs you money for each second it's up whether it's active or not.
Sometimes, you only need a Worker to run for a couple of minutes each day (if you have a simple daily cron job that needs to be run, for instance), but Heroku's standard setup means that you'd always need to have that Worker running. Clearly, that's pretty wasteful.
This is where the Workless gem comes in. Once you add the gem (along with Delayed Job) you can set it so that it'll spin up a Worker only when a background task is executed. When the delayed job queue is empty, it spins your worker back down until it's needed again.
Here's how quick and painless it was to get Workless running on Submarine (this works for any app that's on Rails 3.x).
Step 2: Get your Heroku API key by going to your Account page and clicking "Show API Key".
Run bundle, and that's it. If you want to offload tasks to the background, you can start using Delayed Job if you don't use it already (details on this Github page or in this Railscasts episode), and you can also start using Heroku scheduler to get rake tasks running at set time intervals in the background without having a Worker active all the time.