The first day of the RecSys 2018 conference was dedicated to tutorials. One of them was assigned to mixed methods for evaluating user satisfaction. It was organised by a team of Spotify researchers (Jean Garcia-Gathright, Christine Hosey, Brian St. Thomas, Ben Carterette) and Fernando Diaz of Microsoft Research (Canada). The tutorials covered aspects of qualitative research, quantitative research and analysing data; a combination of techniques that very much resembles market research.
Recommender systems are evaluated using system-oriented metrics.
See this article for an overview of ROC and Precision-Recall.
Measuring satisfaction requires a combination of techniques.
Next to system-oriented metrics, user studies are also being used (more rarely though). Yet the first is even more seldom combined with the second.
The benefits of combining both techniques (user studies and system metrics) were the very focus of this tutorial, and my guess is that it opened the eyes of many of the attendees (including me). Despite my specialisation on customer satisfaction, I must admit that working on a daily basis on recommendation algorithms tends to make you lose the perspective on what really matters: satisfaction!
Focus on satisfaction: first qualitative then quantitative research.
The organisers outlined the process of mixed research methods. It first starts with qualitative research techniques to understand behavioural drivers and propose an overarching behavioural model. Quantitative techniques (surveys, on the one hand, logged data on users' behaviours on the other hand) then allow to verify the model and quantify behaviours.
We'll not go in details about the qualitative part (we have a comprehensive white paper on market research techniques that has an extensive section on qualitative research) and will instead focus on logging online behaviours.
Interpreting algorithms performance: which behaviours should you log?
The question of which metrics to log to measure algorithms performance is so important, yet often neglected. Most metrics (include those above) are based on clicks. This is however very insufficient to approach a complex construct like user satisfaction.
They did an excellent job of going back to the very definitions of those metrics which was useful to put logged data back in perspective. For instance, how useful can be a recommendation if the user doesn't see it ("attention") and what does the user want to achieve when he/she consumers a proposal?
Those research questions are instrumental and are often entirely overlooked.
Going now in detail about online behaviours, we use the above framework to discuss variables that you should track.
The main question that we are trying to answer with this data is whether the user saw the system decision, in other words, whether or not the user saw the algorithmic recommendation. Not seeing it leads to inaction, a behaviour we have dealt with in another article.
Page scroll: does the user scrolled down to the recommendations and does the scrolling time enabled you to infer whether he had the time actually to see the recommendations?
Cursor tracking: tracking the cursor can help you understand whether the user saw the recommendations. There are indeed studies of how eyes movements follow cursor movement which helps infer whether a suggestion came in the user's field of vision.
Touch gesture for mobile devices: zooming in on a recommendation is a visible proxy for attention.
eye-tracking: finally, eye-tracking is the ideal method for tracking users' attention. It informs you both on the eye's movements (the trajectory of the eyes while browsing a page) and the time spent on the various elements.
Interacting with the recommendations is obviously very important, and it encompasses a series of micro-behaviours you need to track.
Here are some of the most common online interaction behaviours.
Consumption time: as obvious as it may seem, consumption time is interpreted differently depending on the platform. Consuming more than 3 seconds of a video on Facebook is considered a view. On YouTube, this is 30 seconds. The threshold is critical and will have maximal impact on how you analyse your data.
Saving an item into a playlist, into a repository is also a strong signal of how much you like the recommendation.
Sharing an item on social media can be considered word-of-mouth and is a strong signal that you feel something about the recommended item. Be careful. It doesn't mean necessarily that you liked it. It can also say you dislike it so much that you want the entire world to know.
Alike or, even better, emotion-related explicit feedback is beneficial to understand better how the user interacts with your interface. Facebook's emoticons are an excellent example of how to distinguish the different feelings a user may have when interacting with your content.
Re-consumption of an item is a powerful signal that something happened. Like in the case of "sharing" it's not necessarily linked to your liking of the item. You can hate it so much that you want to re-consume it but the likelihood is quite low. Re-consummation usually stresses a strong preference.
Knowledge: this is a fascinating behaviour that we often forget to track. In the Spotify interface, for instance, you can click on the artist's name to get more information about her.
Inferring task success requires that you understand very deeply what the user wants to achieve. Success is measured by a user's goal. If you deliver a recommendation or a series of recommendations (a playlist for instance), a complete consumption is a good signal that the user was satisfied with the proposal.The workshop's organisers pointed to a very interesting by Mehrotra et al. (2017). This paper shows that the context determines how specific signals need to be interpreted.
In short, retention / loyalty can take many shapes. It's not just about page views per visit. It's also about other metrics you carefully need to choose based on the context and on your understanding of what the user wants to achieve through this particular interface.
In conclusion, I found this workshop extremely valuable. It helped me reflect on how I use to collect and analyse data. I realise there is a need to come back to the basics and to really try hard to understand what customer satisfaction means. Ironically, an as a customer satisfaction expert, I can't explain myself how I lost sight how the importance of qualitative research and how building behavioural model in an algorithmic recommendation setting. That's probably the sign that when you do something for too long a time, you tend to be less critical of your own actions.


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Side Project From Modest Mouse Singer Is Typically Twisted
Lance Fiasco May 15, 2002 • 12:00 am
Sometimes the occasional beer interrupts a recording session. Other times, all that recording just gets in the way of a good party.
The sessions for Sharpen Your Teeth (May 21), the debut from Modest Mouse singer Isaac Brock's Ugly Casanova side project, had some of the former and way too much of the latter.
Recording the atmospheric album "involved a lot of beers, some recording, then some beers and more recording, if we got to it," said Brock, 26. "It was largely a hangout with recording involved."
But who is Ugly Casanova?
Well, if you believe the elaborate story cooked up by Brock, he's Edgar Graham, a mysterious stranger who first made an impression on Modest Mouse in 1998 when he sneaked backstage at one of their shows. Graham introduced himself as Ugly Casanova and left behind a package of his startling demos. Those demos were then turned into an album by Brock, two former members of Chicago avant-rock act Red Red Meat (Tim Rutili and Brian Deck), Black Heart Procession's Pall Jenkins and pal John Orth.
Great story. But the truth is that the Graham character is an elaborate ruse concocted by Brock to take some time off from his day job leading Modest Mouse, an indie-rock trio known for brooding, meandering road songs and poetic, naturalistic lyrics.
After Modest Mouse signed to Epic Records in 1999, Brock said he told his new major-label bosses that the Ugly Casanova record already existed and that he wanted to release it on Sub Pop Records. "Then I went to Sub Pop and made the deal for the record," he said, laughing. "I though I'd better create a loophole so I can do this other thing indefinitely, so I wouldn't be totally owned by Epic." Unfortunately, Brock didn't read the fine print on his contract, which stated that the Ugly Casanova debut would also have to be the swan song.
But what a way to come in… and go out.
Brock recorded the disc in fits and starts at his home studio in rural Oregon with Deck, who co-produced Modest Mouse's The Moon and Antarctica (2000). The results are a hypnotic blending of Red Red Meat's creaky, experimental rock and Brock's cracked vocals and stream-of-consciousness lyrics about a natural world inhabited by his revolving cast of fringe characters.
"When we were doing the last Modest Mouse record I knew I wanted to do this [Ugly Casanova] thing, because it's been a rough idea of mine for a long time," Brock said, revealing only that the Ugly Casanova/Edgar Graham character "might" be based on someone he knows. "The idea was to just play with a bunch of different people and take a more laid-back pace."
Every few months over the past year, Deck flew out to Brock's house for a week or two and the pair tried to capture the sound Brock was looking for. "As I get older, it gets weirder up there," Brock said of his brain. The struggle in that strange space explains the unique sound he was looking for: something between the bayou boogie of Dr. John and the grizzled, streetwise poetry of Tom Waits' 1985 album, Rain Dogs.
Like Waits, Brock and Deck found musical inspiration in some decidedly nonmusical corners.
Album opener "Barnacles," co-written by Brock and Orth, sounds like a transmission from outer space, with whistling, beeping keyboards twittering over backward guitars, stuttering beats and grim lyrics about holding on, no matter what. "We clung on like barnacles on a boat/ Even though the ship sinks you know you can't let go," Brock sings, sounding more confident than concerned.
For the psychedelic acoustic rocker "Things I Don't Remember" – an urgent late-period Beatles-meets-Frank-Zappa freak out with lyrics about disco dancing neighbors born in mashed potatoes – Brock asked Orth to produce his best "humpy" sounds.
Uh, what?
"We had this spot and we knew that we wanted a sound there like, 'uhhh,' " Brock explained, making an amorous groan. "And I'd go, 'John, make a humpy sound.' He'd do it, and I'd say, 'no, humpier.' We didn't know it would be [called] a humpy sound, but we knew it needed something."
Other songs, like the spooky death rattle "Diamonds on the Face of Evil," feature the decidedly non-rock sounds of the clarinet and a chorus of clanging chains accented by a box of rocks. Brock and Deck created the song's unique percussion by jumping up and down on the ends of a piece of plywood set up in Brock's living room.
"You can really learn a lot from playing with other people, and that's what I set out to do," Brock said. So, now that we've heard from the "Hotcha Girls" and seen the "Cat Faces" in the pines, is this the end for Graham/Ugly Casanova?
"Well, I was only supposed to put out this one record," Brock said. "But I have a bunch of other stuff recorded for Ugly Casanova, so I might make an EP and see if [Epic] gets pissed."

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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UNN generates electricity with organic waste, breaks record
March 19, 2019140422261
The University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN) has set the record of generating electricity by using organic waste to install 100KVA Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) gasification plant for its Nsukka Campus.
UNN Vice-Chancellor, Prof Benjamin Ozumba, who expressed happiness over the project during its inauguration, said the university would no longer be a customer to Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC).
He said the project was first of its kind in Nigeria and described it as another feather added to the cap of the institution.
"I am happy that the university under my watch has witnessed innovations and transformation, as today another feather has been added to the cap of my administration.
"This is the first of its kind in the country, using of waste to generate electricity.
"By the time more of the plants are produced that will cover every part of the university, millions of naira will be saved every month, as UNN will longer pay monthly electricity bill to EEDC, " he said.
The VC also commended Prof Emenike Ejiogu-led research team that produced the RDF gas plant.
In his remark, Ejiogu from the Department of Electrical Engineering applauded Ozumba for his belief of making record-breaking innovations to transform UNN.
"The 100 KVA RDF project is designed and fabricated by laboratory of industrial power devices and energy system under special grant by Ozumba.
"The aim is to enable UNN to generate its own electricity with organic waste that will serve as fuel," he said.
The Japan-trained engineer said his research team was set to produce 250KVA plants, which will supply the energy need of the entire university and its environ.
"UNN power demand now is 3mgwats, so with twelve 250KVA of RDF plants, we will meet electricity supply need of the university," he said.
He said on request, his research team was ready to install the RDF plants to any individual, company or office who needed it.
"It is cheaper and can carry more loads than solar energy installation.
"With RDF plant in your house or office, it will carry your air-condition, deep freezers, pressing iron and other things in your house, office or company," he said.
Ejiogu listed some of the organic waste that could be used as waste materials to power the plant to include: agricultural byproducts such as corn husks, wood chips among others.
He said the plant would create employment for many people through supplying of waste to UNN or other people who would be using the plant," he said.
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Hey Buddy!, I found this information for you: "UNN generates electricity with organic waste, breaks record". Here is the website link: https://educationtell.com/5374-2/. Thank you


The Clarion Project (formerly Clarion Fund Inc) was founded in 2006 and is an independently funded, non-profit organization dedicated to exposing the dangers of Islamist extremism while providing a platform for the voices of moderation and promoting grassroots activism.
The purpose of The Clarion Project's Advisory Board is to advise management how to best achieve the organization's goals of educating the public about Islamic extremism and providing a platform for Muslim human rights activists.
What kind of "education" will the Clarion Project's management be receiving from these three advisors? Personal versions of Fantasy Islam.


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Home Business Calabrio Appoints Kevin M. Jones as CEO to Lead the Company in its Next Stage of Growth
Calabrio, the workforce performance company, is pleased to announce the appointment of Kevin Jones as CEO. Kevin succeeds Tom Goodmanson, Calabrio's current CEO who is leaving after successfully leading the company for the past 15 years.
Goodmanson is stepping down to pursue new ventures after growing the company to new heights and setting it on a course for continued success. "It's been an absolute pleasure these past 15 years working to make Calabrio ONE what it is today—the leading workforce performance platform that helps enrich and understand human interactions," said Goodmanson. "I am excited to see how Kevin moves the company forward."
"Calabrio is an innovative disruptor in the cloud-first contact center market, across enterprises of all sizes. We thank Tom for the everlasting impact he has had on Calabrio's success, and welcome Kevin to Calabrio. We believe that Kevin's passion and deep experience in the technology industry is well suited to shepherd Calabrio into its next phase of growth," said Mike Hoffmann, Partner at Thoma Bravo.
With more than 30 years of experience in the technology industry, Jones has built a successful track record driving significant business transformation. He has held key leadership roles across a variety of technology services companies including Rackspace Technology, Dell, and HP. At Rackspace Technology, Jones led a team that grew the company from $2 billion to $3 billion in annual revenue by building and scaling a public cloud business, introducing new products, and expanding geographically. He is a passionate advocate for employee engagement, diversity and inclusion, and believes that people and culture are a key differentiator in business.
"I am honored and excited to the take the helm of a company that continues to pave the way in empowering contact centers as brand guardians, and enriches everyday customer interactions to drive improved business outcomes," said Kevin Jones. "I look forward to guiding Calabrio into its next phase of strategic growth as we expand our efforts to optimize the contact center customer experience."
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Man sues company after allegedly being sacked because he was gay
by Kenneth Tan
Last October, a video showing the Nanshan police dealing with a dispute between two gay males in the street went viral on the web (see below). A speech made by one of the men wearing a "little red hat" in the video turned into an internet meme, and it further inspired multiple music videos and imitation videos online. The man and his "little red hat" gained so much attention, he was even able to sign with a talent company.
However, the other party of this dispute, a man named Mu Yi, said he was "outed involuntarily" because of the viral video, and is now suing his company for firing him because he is gay. This is believed to be China's first ever sexual-orientation discrimination lawsuit.
"During that time (when the video went viral) I was a total wreck. I couldn't go out. I couldn't answer the phone. I even lost my job," Mu told reporters. "I was the victim to begin with, it doesn't make any sense for my company [to punish me more]," he said.
Mu originally worked as the head of sales in a design company. Shortly after the video went viral, he received a notice from the company claiming that he did not follow the company dress code and that there were complaints about his service attitude. Mu was soon after fired.
"Worst thing of all, when I was on break, the company lowered my salary substantially, which is clearly discrimination against me. I can find another job but the discrimination is unbearable. That's why I decided to file the lawsuit," Mu said.
Liu Xiaohu, the lawyer who represents Mu Yi, told reporters that "this is China's first ever sexual-orientation discrimination lawsuit."
Here is the original video in which Mu claims he was outed along with one of the remixes:


Walk starts in the Community Garden at Hillcrest Park (near Christie St and Hillcrest Dr) and ends at the Tollkeeper's Cottage (Davenport Rd and Bathurst St).
Join us for a celebration of spring as we stroll through the neighbourhood, discovering lost rivers, and learning about the work of Indigenous neighbours. We will hear stories about the deep history of the neighbourhood; Mastodons, Lake Iroquois, Taddle Creek, the Davenport Trail, the Tollkeeper's Cottage, and about the gardens at Hillcrest and the Tollkeepers cottage. And more! Experience the natural and social history of our neighbourhood while enjoying an evening spring stroll.
Meet at 7pm in the Community Garden at Hillcrest Park (near Christie St and Hillcrest Dr). The walk will end with refreshments at the Tollkeeper's Cottage (Davenport Rd and Bathurst St). Come prepared for the weather - we will celebrate spring rain or shine!


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Иван Иванович Серебряков (28 января 1895, д. Ершово, Новгородская губерния, Российская империя — 4 января 1957, Москва, СССР) — советский военачальник, полковник (1939).

Биография
Родился 28 января 1895 года в деревне Ершово, ныне в Шекснинском районе, Вологодская область. Русский. До службы в армии с сентября 1911 по май 1915 года учился в Череповецкой учительской семинарии.

Военная служба

Первая мировая война и революция
В мае 1915 года поступил на военную службу и был зачислен рядовым в 176-й пехотный запасной полк в город Красное Село. С января 1916 года — юнкер 1-й Петергофской школы прапорщиков. После завершения обучения 20 мая был произведён в прапорщики и назначен взводным офицером в 133-й пехотный запасной полк в город Самара. В марте 1917 года направлен на Юго-Западный фронт, где воевал младшим офицером и командиром полуроты в 30-м и 4-м Туркестанских стрелковых полках. После Октябрьской революции 1917 года демобилизован, вернулся на родину. С сентября 1918 года работал сельским учителем в селе Веретня Череповецкого уезда.

Гражданская война
В марте 1919 года Серебряков был мобилизован в РККА и направлен в город Вятка в распоряжение штаба 3-й армии, где был назначен командиром взвода в 61-й стрелковый Рыбинский полк Особой бригады. Позже полк вошёл в 51-ю стрелковую дивизию и был переименован в 456-й стрелковый Рыбинский полк. В составе этого полка в должностях помощника командира и командира роты воевал на Восточном фронте: прошёл с боями от Тобольска до Тюмени, участвовал в Петропавловской операции, а также под Тюкалинском и Тару. В июле 1920 года дивизия была переброшена на Юго-Западный фронт, где сражалась на Каховском плацдарме, а в октябре — ноябре участвовала в наступлении в Северной Таврии и в Перекопско-Чонгарской операции. После разгрома войск генерала П. Н. Врангеля её части вели борьбу с вооружёнными формированиями Н. И. Махно в районе Симферополь — Саки, затем охраняли границу с Румынией. С апреля 1921 по март 1922 года Серебряков с полком принимал участие в борьбе с бандитизмом в Одесской области.

Межвоенные годы
После войны 456-й стрелковый Рыбинский полк был переименован в 152-й Рогожско-Симоновский, а Серебряков служил в нём командиром взвода, помощником командира и командиром роты. В январе 1924 года переведён помощником командира батальона в 153-й стрелковый полк. В марте вернулся в 152-й стрелковый полки командовал в нём ротой и батальоном. В июле назначен в 283-й стрелковый полк 95-й стрелковой дивизии УВО, где проходил службу пом. командира батальона, командиром роты и начальником полковой школы. С декабря 1926 по сентябрь 1927 года был начальником полковой школы в 285-м стрелковом полку. Затем вернулся в 283-й стрелковый полк и занимал должности пом. начальника штаба полка, командира батальона и начальника штаба полка, в течение 7 месяцев временно командовал полком.

С ноября 1937 по август 1938 года проходил подготовку на курсах «Выстрел». По окончании обучения направлен старшим помощника начальника 1-го отдела Управления боевой подготовки РККА. С февраля 1939 года исполнял должность заместителя начальника этого отдела. Член ВКП(б) с 1939 года.

Великая Отечественная война
С началом войны полковник Серебряков в июле был назначен начальником штаба 316-й стрелковой дивизии, формировавшейся в городе Алма-Ата. В конце августа дивизия была передислоцирована на Северо-Западный фронт, включена в состав 52-й армии и вела бои юго-восточнее города Малая Вишера. С 5 по 10 октября она передислоцирована в район Волоколамска, где в составе 16-й армии участвовала в битве под Москвой. За героизм и мужество в этих боях дивизия была награждена орденом Красного Знамени (17.11.1941), преобразована в 8-ю гвардейскую (18.11.1941), а 23.11.1941 ей было присвоено имя погибшего командира дивизии — генерал-майора И. В. Панфилова.

Дивизия принимала деятельное участие в уничтожении собственных населённых пунктов на территории Московской области, в течение 11 дней было разрушено 62 деревни. В числе авторов приказов и отчётных документов по этим мероприятиям присутствует и Серебряков.

С 8 декабря части дивизии принимали участие в Клинско-Солнечногорской наступательной операции. После овладения опорными пунктами Крюково и Каменка дивизия выведена в резерв Ставки ВГК. В конце декабря — начале января она убыла на Северо-Западный фронт. В составе 2-го гвардейского стрелкового корпуса 3-й ударной армии Северо-Западного и Калининского фронтов её части вели бои против демянской группировки противника. Указом ПВС СССР от 16 марта 1942 года за эти бои она была награждена орденом Ленина. 4 апреля полковник Серебряков вступил в командование этой дивизией. С июня её части оборонялись на восточном берегу реки Ловать на рубеже Мильково, Метня, Снигирево.

С октября 1942 года Серебряков исполнял должность заместителя начальника штаба — начальника оперативного отдела штаба 3-й ударной армии Калининского фронта. Участвовал с ней в Великолукской наступательной операции. 6 марта 1943 года он переведён начальником отдела боевой подготовки штаба 4-й ударной армии. В этой должности принимал участие в Невельской наступательной операции. Со 2 декабря Серебряков принял командование 381-й стрелковой дивизией и участвовал с ней в Городокской наступательной операции, затем в наступлении на витебском направлении. 12 февраля 1944 года дивизия была переброшена западнее города Невель и с 27 февраля вела наступление на Идрицу. В начале марте, войдя в состав 6-й гвардейской армии, оборонялась на рубеже Дрожжино —Тельны. 18 марта полковник Серебряков переведён начальником отдела боевой подготовки 4-й ударной армии. 16 апреля под деревней Дретунь (ныне Полоцкий район, Витебская область) он был тяжело ранен и госпитализирован. По выздоровлении 18 сентября 1944 года направлен старшим инспектором 1-го отдела Управления инспектирования и боевой подготовки запасных и учебных стрелковых частей Главного управления формирования и укомплектования Красной армии.

Послевоенное время
С декабря 1945 года занимал должность инспектора Инспекции пехоты Красной армии при НКО СССР. С января 1946 года Серебряков — старший инспектор этой же Инспекции, с 18 июня — инспектор Инспекции стрелковых войск Главной инспекции Сухопутных войск, с января 1947 года — старший офицер Организационно-планового отдела Главной инспекции ВС СССР. С апреля по июль 1950 года состоял в распоряжении ГУК, затем был назначен инспектором воздушно-десантных войск Главной инспекции Советской армии. 10 февраля 1953 года гвардии полковник Серебряков уволен в запас.

Скончался в 1957 году, похоронен на 22-м участке Ваганьковского кладбища в Москве.

Награды
 орден Ленина (21.02.1945)
 четыре ордена Красного Знамени (03.11.1941, 19.05.1944, 03.11.1944, 20.06.1949)
 орден Отечественной войны I степени (18.10.1943)
 орден Красной Звезды (1940)
 медали в том числе:
 «XX лет Рабоче-Крестьянской Красной Армии» (1938)
 «За оборону Москвы» (1944)
 «За победу над Германией в Великой Отечественной войне 1941—1945 гг.» (1945)
 «За победу над Японией» (1945)

Примечания

Ссылки
 «Память Народа» — информационный проект

Литература

 Чистяков И. М.  Служим Отчизне. — М.: Воениздат, 1985.
Выпускники Череповецкой учительской семинарии
Участники Первой мировой войны (Россия)
Царские офицеры на службе в РККА
Участники Гражданской войны в России
Выпускники курсов «Выстрел»
Пехотинцы Великой Отечественной войны
Командиры дивизий в Великой Отечественной войне
Начальники штабов в Великой Отечественной войне
Участники битвы за Москву
Участники советско-японской войны (СССР)
Члены КПСС
Похороненные на Ваганьковском кладбище

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Home > Screenplays > Down in the Delta
Down in the Delta
Author: Myron E. Goble
Introduction by: Maya Angelou
Publisher: Hyperion Books
About the Screenplay:
With Down in the Delta, a family saga set in the South, Maya Angelou – author, teacher, actress and honoured cultural personage – realized a longtime dream of directing her own film, staring Alfre Woodward, Al Freeman Jr., Esther Rolle, Mary Alice, and Wesley Snipes. This is the screenplay to the 1998 feature film written by first-time screenwriter Myron E. Goble.
Down in the Delta is an emotionally riveting story of a troubled family who who must return to their roots in Mississippi to discover their history and rediscover their faith in each other and their future. Life is spinning out of control for Loretta Sinclair, an undereducated African American woman who lives in Chicago with her mother and two children. Consumed by the bleakness of her present struggle to support herself and her children, she succumbs to the drug and alcohol-ridden streets of the neighbourhood. In a final effort to save her daughter and her children, Loretta's mother, Rosa Lynn, takes great pains to move her family back to the ancestral home down in the Mississippi Delta. Here, differences, abound, as big city meets small town and the young confront the old. But Loretta and her son discover their remarkable family history, which restores their faith in each other and the future.
Myron E. Goble won the 1993 Nicholl Fellowship Award from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences with his first screenplay Down in the Delta.


text:
Traffic cop struck down while performing duties
A police rank who was performing traffic duties was struck down by a truck at Houston on the lower East Bank Demerara Thursday morning.
Reports are that the rank was hit by a truck which was proceeding along the roadway with a load of sand.
Eyewitnesses reported that the rank lay motionless on the roadway as other police officers and passersby summoned an ambulance. The injured rank, who is attached to the Ruimveldt Police Station, was taken for medical attention while the driver of the truck was arrested.
During the morning rush hour, traffic along the East Bank Demerara between Houston and Peter's Hall is usually restricted to three lanes heading to the city with one lane heading south in the direction of Timehri.This is to ease the congestion which usually builds up after 0600hrs during the weekdays.
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Woman surrenders to police after stabling 4-year-old girl
Amna Ally being treated at Heart Institute
The world's oldest tree is 5,000 years old and lives in the US — somewhere


text:
Q: What is the average number of balls one should extract until all three colours have appeared?
Suppose an urn contains a large number of balls. 50% of the balls are black, 30% are white and 20% are red. Balls are extracted randomly, one at a time, recorded and returned to the urn. What is the average number of balls one should extract until all three colours have appeared?

Should I use the geometric distribution for this?

A: Consider the sequence of colours of extracted balls. When all three colours have been found for the first time, note that one colour must appear exactly once at the very end of the sequence; the other two colours must appear at least once before that, but can appear in any order.
Let $n\ge2$ be the number of balls drawn before the final ball. Suppose this final ball is black (probability 0.5), then the preceding balls are non-black ($0.5^n$) but not all red ($0.2^n$) or not all white ($0.3^n$). The probability that this kind of sequence occurs is
$$0.5(0.5^n-0.3^n-0.2^n)$$
Similar expressions arise if the final ball is red or white, so the probability that exactly $n$ balls are drawn before the final ball is
$$p(n)=0.5(0.5^n-0.3^n-0.2^n)+\\
0.3(0.7^n-0.5^n-0.2^n)+\\
0.2(0.8^n-0.5^n-0.3^n)$$
Since almost all sequences contain all three colours, $\sum_{n=2}^\infty p(n)=1$. The expected number of balls needed is thus
$$E=1+\sum_{n=2}^\infty np(n)$$
$$=1+\sum_{n=2}^\infty n(0.5(0.5^n-0.3^n-0.2^n)+0.3(0.7^n-0.5^n-0.2^n)+0.2(0.8^n-0.5^n-0.3^n))$$
$$=1+0.5\sum_{n=2}^\infty n(0.5^n-0.3^n-0.2^n)+0.3\sum_{n=2}^\infty n(0.7^n-0.5^n-0.2^n)+0.2\sum_{n=2}^\infty n(0.8^n-0.5^n-0.3^n)$$
$$=1+\frac12×\frac{843}{784}+\frac3{10}×\frac{787}{144}+\frac15×\frac{852}{49}$$
$$=\frac{559}{84}$$

A: I confess I don't see a short cut here.  Maybe someone will help.  The brute force approach is to consider the cases.
Case 1.  With probability $\frac12$, the first ball is black.  Now, suppose you took out all the black balls.  That leaves an urn that is $\frac35$ white balls and $\frac25$ red balls.  How long would it take to get both of those colors?  Again, we would break out the two possible cases—white ball first, or red ball first.  That analysis would yield an average count of
$$
\frac35\left(1+\frac52\right)+\frac25\left(1+\frac53\right)
    = 1+\frac32+\frac23 = \frac{19}{6}
$$
But of course, those black balls are really there, and because half of the balls are black, that count is actually doubled to $\frac{19}{3}$.  That plus that first black ball makes $\frac{22}{3}$.
Case 2. With probability $\frac{3}{10}$, the first ball is white.  Again, suppose you took out all the white balls, leaving an urn that is $\frac57$ black balls and $\frac27$ red balls.  Getting at least one black and one red ball would require an average count of
$$
1+\frac52+\frac25 = \frac{39}{10}
$$
Adding those white balls back in inflates that number by a ratio of $\frac{10}{7}$ to $\frac{39}{7}$, and then adding in that first white ball gives us $\frac{46}{7}$.
Case 3.  Finally, with probability $\frac15$, the first ball is red.  Taking out all of the red balls leaves an urn that is $\frac58$ black balls and $\frac38$ white balls.  Getting at least one of each requires an average count of
$$
1+\frac53+\frac35 = \frac{49}{15}
$$
Adding those red balls back in inflates that by a ratio of $\frac{5}{4}$ to $\frac{49}{12}$.  That plus that first white ball gives us $\frac{61}{12}$.
Putting the three cases together, we get an overall average count of
$$
\frac12 \times \frac{22}{3} + \frac{3}{10} \times \frac{46}{7}
                            + \frac15 \times \frac{61}{12}
    = \frac{11}{3} + \frac{138}{70} + \frac{61}{60}
    = \frac{559}{84} \doteq 6.65476
$$
That result is borne out by simulation, but as I say, I'm sorry I can't find an easier way to that answer.

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