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Tanker Market Subdued During July
The tanker market remained in subpar level during the month of July. According to the latest monthly report from OPEC, events in July provided little momentum to the languishing tanker market, with dirty freight rates remaining at subdued levels. As soon as positive signs appear on the horizon, offsetting darker clouds seem to emerge as well. Demand for tankers is expected to pick up in 2H21, easing the imbalance versus tonnage availability, further helped by increased scrapping and low new deliveries. However, the rapid spread of the Delta variant has provided some uncertainty to the outlook, potentially pushing off the tanker market recovery into 2022.
Spot fixtures
Global spot fixtures declined m-o-m in July, falling by 1.7 mb/d, or around 11%, to average 13.8 mb/d. Declines came as Asian and European buying remained muted. Compared to the previous year, spot fixtures were slightly lower, falling by less than 1%. It should be noted that rates began the current low phase already in June 2020, coming down sharply from the exceptionally high levels seen earlier in 2Q21.
OPEC spot fixtures rose m-o-m in July, increasing by 0.5 mb/d, or almost 6%, to average just under 10 mb/d, amid a scheduled easing of production adjustments. Compared with the same month last year, OPEC spot fixtures were about 14% higher, rising by just under 1.0 mb/d. Fixtures from the Middle East-to-East averaged 5.9 mb/d in July, representing a gain of 0.5 mb/d, or 6% m-o-m, amid increased flows from the region to the Far East. Y-o-y, the route saw an increase of 0.7 mb/d, or over 14%. Middle East-to-West fixtures declined by almost 19%, or around 0.2 mb/d m-o-m, to average 870 tb/d, amid lower flows to Northwest Europe (NWE) and the Mediterranean. This was around 0.2 mb/d, or almost 32%, higher than in the same month last year. Outside the Middle East fixtures edged up 30 tb/d, or 1% m-o-m, to average 3.2 mb/d. Y-o-y, fixtures were around 6%, or around 0.2 mb/d higher.
Sailings and arrivals
OPEC sailings continued to rise m-o-m in July, gaining 0.7 mb/d, or over 3%, to average around 22.2 mb/d. Y-o-y, OPEC sailings were 2.1 mb/d, or 11%, higher than the very low levels seen in July 2020. Middle East sailings continued to show m-o-m gains in July, edging up by 0.3 mb/d, or close to 2%, to average 15.6 mb/d. Y-o-y, sailings from the region rose 1.8 mb/d, or 13%, compared with the same month last year. Crude arrivals in July were higher m-o-m on all routes with the exception of Europe. Arrivals in North America averaged 9.0 mb/d, representing a gain of 0.1 mb/d m-o-m, or around 2%, and a 1.2 mb/d, or over 15% increase y-o-y. Arrivals in the Far East averaged 15.0 mb/d in July, an increase of 1.6 mb/d, or 12% m-o-m, and a massive 5.8 mb/d, or over 63%, higher than the same month last year. In West Asia, arrivals more than recovered from the previous month's losses, rising by 0.8 mb/d, or over 13%, to average 6.9 mb/d. Y-o-y, West Asia arrivals were 2.3 mb/d, or just over 50%, higher. European arrivals were relatively stable in July at 12.8 mb/d, marginally lower than in the previous month and a massive 3.9 mb/d, or 44%, higher than the same period last year.
Dirty tanker freight rates
Very large crude carriers (VLCCs)
VLCC spot rates edged higher m-o-m in July, rising by 4%. However, VLCC rates declined 17% compared with the same month last year when rates were still coming down from very high levels. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route dropped by 3% m-o-m to average WS31 points as flows to Singapore declined. Y-o-y, rates were 21% lower. In contrast, rates on the Middle East-to-West route rose m-o-m by 5% in July to stand at WS22 points as gains in France and Italy offset declines in the Netherlands. However, y-o-y, rates were 12% lower. The West Africa-to-East route also increased by 3% m-o-m in July to average WS34 as insufficient import quotas constricted buying by Chinese independents. However, rates were 21% lower compared with July 2020.
Suezmax
Suezmax rates were down by 2% m-o-m in July amid lower demand for flows to the Far East as well as Europe. Rates were 7% lower compared to the same month last year. On the West Africa-to-USGC route, rates averaged WS46, a gain of 2% compared to the month before. Y-o-y, rates were 7% higher than in July 2020. Meanwhile, spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route declined 5% m-o-m to average WS37 points. This was 20% lower compared with the same month last year.
Aframax
Aframax rates fell further in July, dropping by 2% m-o-m as tonnage demand for the class in the Far East and Europe eroded. Minor declines were seen on all monitored routes. Y-o-y, rates were 28% higher. The Indonesia-to-East route saw a 1% decline m-o-m to average WS81, but was still 25% higher y-o-y. The Caribbean-to-USEC route fell 2% m-o-m to average WS79 in July, while rates were 11% higher y-o-y.
Med routes also fell m-o-m in July. The Cross-Med route averaged WS89 in July, representing a drop of 2% compared with the previous month. Y-o-y, however, rates were 41% higher. On the Mediterranean-to-NWE route, rates fell by 5% m-o-m in July to average WS79. Compared with the same month last year, rates on the route were 39% higher.
Tanker Market Remained Depressed During June
The tanker market failed to recover during the month of June, according to the latest monthly report from OPEC. Dirty tanker rates remained at depressed levels in June as ample tonnage availability and constrained demand continued to weigh on the market. The search for better rates has even encouraged the use of newly built very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to carry clean products, eroding clean tanker rates. New deliveries, minimal scrapping and weak tanker demand point to a continued sluggish tanker market, possibly into next year.
VLCC spot rates edged lower m-o-m in June, down 7%, and were some 36% lower compared with the same month last year. Rates on the Middle East-to-East declined 6% m-o-m to average WS32 points, as flows to China remained muted. Y-o-y, rates were 37% below the same month last year. Rates on the Middle East-to-West route also declined m-o-m, dropping 5% in June to stand at WS21 points, as ample availability outweighed a slight increase in fixtures. Y-o-y, rates were 30% lower. The West Africa-to-East route showed a loss of 8% m-o-m in June, averaging WS33, as uncertainties regarding crude import quotas constricted buying by Chinese independents. Rates were 38% lower compared with June 2020.
Suezmax rates were broadly flat m-o-m in June and were 7% lower compared to the same month last year. On the West Africa-to-USGC route, rates averaged WS45, a decline of 2% compared to the month before. Y-o-y, rates were 2% higher than in June 2020. Meanwhile, spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route were unchanged at WS39 points. This was 15% lower compared with the same month last year.
Aframax rates erased the previous month's gain in June, dropping 5% m-o-m, although some 31% higher than the same month last year.
Movements were mixed m-o-m, with the Indonesia-to-East route seeing a 2% decline m-o-m to average WS82. The Caribbean-to-USEC route erased the gains seen in the previous month, declining 21% m-o-m to average WS81 in June. However, y-o-y, rates on the route were 19% higher. Med routes enjoyed m-o-m gains in June. The Cross-Med route averaged WS91 in June, representing an increase of 5% over the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, rates were 47% lower. On the Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe (NWE) route, rates rose 6% m-o-m in June to average WS83. Compared with the same month last year, rates on the route were 48% higher.
Clean tanker freight rates
Clean spot freight rates declined for the second month in a row in June, down 10% m-o-m, with losses across the board. East of Suez rates declined 7% m-o-m and rates to the west fell 12% m-o-m, respectively. Compared to the same month last year, East of Suez rates were 10% higher, while West of Suez rates rose 15%.
In the West of Suez market, rates on the Cross-Med and Med-to-NWE routes declined by around 13% each, to average WS130 and WS140 points, respectively. Y-o-y, rates were around 15% higher on both routes. Rates on the NWE-to-USEC route experienced a similar decline of around 12% m-o-m, to average WS116 points. Rates were 20% higher compared with the same month last year. In the East of Suez, the Middle East-to-East route saw a lesser decline m-o-m in June, falling 4% to average WS89. This represented a 9% increase compared with the same month last year. Meanwhile, freight rates on the Singapore-to-East route declined 9% in June compared with the previous month to average WS133. Rates were 11% higher compared with June 2020.
Tanker Newbuilding Doubles During 2021
Ship owners' appetite for crude tankers has intensified since the start of 2021, manifesting itself in an increased newbuilding contracting pace. Crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.5 million which is about +48% when compared to the same period last year.
Last year, crude tankers' newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fueling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners' appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 70% of the total orders. If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
2021 crude oil tanker demolition stalls as second-hand prices win
The year 2021 has been tough on crude oil tanker freight rates across the board so far. Consequently, the industry buzz has been all about large scale scrapping of tankers, but so far, it has been all talk and very little walk, as the second-hand market has proved a much-preferred alternative.
The attractiveness of scrap steel prices around USD 450 per ltd. offered by breaker yard on the Indian sub-continent, easily vanish when compared to USD 24.5 million being paid for a 2002-built VLCC in the second-hand market.
For instance, in Q4 2014 through Q1 2016, tanker freight rates enjoyed high levels on the back of a sharp decline in oil prices during Q4 2014 to Q1 2015, but when tanker freight rates started to drop after Q1 2016, it took around five quarters for scrapping activity to pick up in July 2017.
Every crisis holds elements of something that we have seen before, in addition to elements that are new to us. The most striking recognisable element of the current crisis is that a lot of money was made before it all went sour, while the most striking new element seems to be the fact that demand is very different.
We currently observe two opposing future trends, both of which will steadily impact tanker trade lanes. Where non-OECD nations (mainly India, China and South East Asia) are rapidly heading towards a pre-pandemic level of oil demand, OECD nations on the other hand are on a very different track as the US is now joining Europe and Japan on a trend of a decline in the demand for oil.
2021 may not be about seasons at all; leaving the winter peak season behind us now, we can only look back at it as a non-event. The Asian refinery maintenance season is currently under way, but it will most likely become another regular element which will only be noticed to a small extent this year.
Tanker Market Edged Higher During December
The tanker market posted a mild rebound during the month of December. According to the latest monthly report from OPEC, dirty tanker rates experienced a slight improvement m-o-m in December, while still remaining near multiyear lows amid a persistent imbalance in tanker demand and availability. VLCC and Suezmax rates saw some improvement on eastward rates from the Middle East and West Africa, as well as from West Africa to the US Gulf Coast. Aframax rates edged lower, weighed down by a sluggish intra-Med performance. Clean tanker rates continued to see a pick up from multi-year lows seen at the start of the 4Q20, with gains both East and West of Suez. As with the oil market and the global economy as a whole, 2020 was a volatile one for the tanker market. However, in contrast to the oil market, March and April were 'golden' rather than 'black' months as tanker freight rates soared to record highs in all major shipping regions. Dislocations caused by the COVID-19 crisis resulted in an excess of crude in the market as consumption collapsed, overwhelming onshore inventories and leading to a surge in floating storage demand for both crude and products, all of which supported tanker rates across the globe. By June, spot freight rates had fallen back to lower levels, where they remained for the rest of 2020. While ongoing efforts to address the imbalance in the oil market by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries in the DoC may reduce tonnage demand in the near term, the tanker market will benefit as the reduced overhang stabilizes oil trade trends, and as easing lockdown measures and a rollout of the COVID19 vaccine supports a return of economic activity.
Global spot fixtures declined m-o-m in December, after increasing the month before, falling 1.2 mb/d, or 7.2%, to average just under 15.1 mb/d. The decline occurred across all major routes. Spot fixtures were 3.2 mb/d, or more than 17%, lower than the same month last year, reflecting the overall muted environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
OPEC spot fixtures averaged 9.7 mb/d in December, representing a decline of almost 8% m-o-m, or 0.8 mb/d. Compared to the same month last year, OPEC spot fixtures were around 21% lower, or almost 2.7 mb/d, reflecting in part the production adjustments from OPEC countries. Fixtures from the Middle East-to-East averaged 5.7 mb/d in December, representing a decline of more than 0.7 mb/d, or around 11%, m-o-m. Y-o-y, this represents a decline of 1.0 mb/d or almost 16%. Middle East-to-West fixtures continued to lead the m-o-m losses, falling 13%, or 0.1 mb/d, in December to average 0.8 mb/d. This was still 0.7 mb/d, or 47%, lower compared with the same month last year. Outside of the Middle East, fixtures were broadly flat, down less than 1% m-o-m, to average just under 3.3 mb/d. Y-o-y, fixtures declined more than 22% or just under 1.0 mb/d
OPEC sailings increased 1.4% in December, or 0.29 mb/d, to average 20.76 mb/d, compared with a yearhigh of 25.5 mb/d in April. The increase came as more Libyan barrels became available in the market. Y-o-y, OPEC sailings were 4.1 mb/d, or 16%, lower. Middle East sailings averaged 14.4 mb/d, representing a decline of around 0.3 mb/d m-o-m, or almost 2%. This was down almost 3.1 mb/d, or 18%, compared to the same month last year.
Crude arrivals declined m-o-m in December across all regions except West Asia. Arrivals in Europe led the losses, averaging 10.0 mb/d, representing a drop of almost 3%, or 0.3 mb/d, over the previous month, but were still 1.7 mb/d, or close to 15%, lower y-o-y. Far East arrivals declined by close to 3% m-o-m, or 0.3 mb/d, to average 10.8 mb/d, although this represented a y-o-y increase of 28% or 2.4 mb/d. North American arrivals also fell around 3% m-o-m, or 0.2 mb/d to average 7.4 mb/d. They also saw the largest y-o-y loss of 19% or 1.7 mb/d. In contrast, arrivals in West Asia provided a bright spot, increasing 13% m-o-m, or 0.7 mb/d, to average 6.1 mb/d.
VLCC spot rates saw some improvement in December picking up from very low levels, supported by gains across all major routes. Spot freight rates rose 24% m-o-m, but still remained 68% lower compared to the same month the year before. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 34% m-o-m in December to average WS35 points. Y-o-y, rates were 69% lower compared with the same month in 2019. Rates on the Middle East-to-West route increased 19% m-o-m to average WS20 points. Y-o-y, rates were down 68%. The West Africa-to-East route experienced a similar increase, up 19% m-o-m to average WS36 points. Rates were 67% lower compared with December 2019.
Suezmax rates experienced mixed movement in December, resulting in average spot freight rates edging up 2% m-o-m on average, the second-consecutive monthly increase. However, they were still 74% lower y-o-y. On the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast (USGC) route, Suezmax rates averaged WS34 points in December, representing a 6% gain from the month before. Y-o-y, rates were 76% lower than in December last year. The Northwest Europe (NWE)-to-USGC route declined 3% m-o-m to average WS30 points, representing a 71% decline from the same month last year.
Aframax rates were broadly stable in December, edging lower by just 1% m-o-m. Compared to the previous year, however, rates were 71% lower. The Caribbean-to-US East Coast (USEC) route were unchanged m-o-m in December, with rates averaging WS69. Y-o-y, rates on the route were 72% lower.
Developments in the Mediterranean routes continued to diverge slightly. The Cross-Med route declined in December after increasing the previous two months, falling 2% m-o-m to average WS60. In contrast, the Mediterranean-to-NWE route was broadly unchanged averaging WS53, which represented a 71% drop y-o-y. Meanwhile, the Indonesia-to-East route declined 3% to average WS51, which was some 72% lower y-o-y.
Tanker Market Starts the Year on a Positive Note
Τhe tanker market has entered 2021 with renewed optimism thus far, despite estimates of the opposite. Τhere was hope in the air for the first full trading week of the New Year, with added volumes from OPEC+ and the perception that we were behind the curve on the fixture count. Alas, OPEC did a U-turn and as proceeding got going it transpired that much more had been done quietly under the radar than first thought. Like one politician ones uttered "It feels a bit like someone stole our clothes while we were enjoying a swim". With that, rates have taken a hit in all areas and a continued downward bias is evident. Please note that new 2021 Worldscale flat rates are down 16-17% on average, thus rates are not directly comparable to last years.
Various vaccines have been successfully developed and given the green light which should see this year's Covid-19 variant brought under partial control, or at least in the countries that can afford to buy it. The downside is that a general malaise in the Suezmax market is going to persist until demand picks up towards the end of the year. It should be noted that attempted terrorist acts in the Red Sea and MEG have had zero affect on rates, which suggests owners will adopt a reactive approach, therefore only attaching a premium to these runs if the unthinkable happens. All Suezmax markets will trade flat/soft for the remainder of the week, with Western markets looking particularly vulnerable to further falls.
Rally in product tanker stocks to be short-lived
Product tanker stocks have climbed in the last month (23 October to 25 November) mainly driven by a rally in the global equity markets and seasonal strengthening of product tanker freight rates. DMFR product tanker index rose 16.9% since 30 October, while S&P 500 increased 11% and Baltic clean tanker index grew 19.2% in the same period. After record high earnings in 2Q20, company earnings dipped in 3Q20 as spot shipping rates declined. We delve deeper to find whether fundamentals support the recent rally in product tanker stocks.
Earnings coming off from the peak in 2Q20
Results of product tanker companies benefited from higher TCE in 3Q20 compared to 3Q19. However, their net income in 3Q20 was lower compared to 2Q20 with declining freight rates. Product tanker freight rates fell in 3Q20 mainly because the tankers that were earlier employed for floating storage are returning to active trade at a time when their demand has weakened. Product tanker trading fleet has grown at 4.3% between end-2019 and October 2020, which is resulting in oversupply. We believe TCE rates for product tankers companies were closer to their cash flow breakeven in 3Q20. We expect cash flow breakeven to range between USD 13,500pd and USD 16,500pd.
Fixed chartering strategy pays off
In 3Q20, D'Amico recorded the highest operating margin among the major product tanker companies due to its strategy of deploying the majority of its vessels on long-term charter. D'Amico had 63.5% of its total employment days in 9M20 covered through time charter at an average daily rate of USD16,041pd. In comparison, other product tanker companies (Ardmore, Scorpio Tankers and Hafnia) had the majority of their vessels employed in the spot market. Shipowners with larger product tanker vessels such as LR2 and LR1 benefited from the demand of these vessels for floating storage.
Product tanker stocks surge in line with global equities
After lacklustre returns for the majority of the year, DMFR product tanker index has surged 16.9% in November (as of 26 November 2020). Ardmore is the best performing stock, having gone up 17.1% during this period. While we believe the rally in product tanker stocks is in line with global equity markets, part of the rally is attributed to the seasonal strength in product tanker rates. Global equity markets have rallied on the hopes that the COVID-19 vaccine will soon be available as well as the potential stimulus with the new government taking charge in the US. The Baltic clean tanker index (BCTI) has gone up 19.2% from the lows of October because of seasonal demand, but product tanker rates are still lower for 4Q, which is considered a strong quarter for these vessels.
Product tanker prospects remain weak
Despite the recent strength in the product tanker market, we expect it to weaken in 2021 due to low demand for oil products. We project the rates for these tankers to dip in 2021 on average as in 2020 rates benefited from the cushion of supply inefficiencies. The ongoing lockdown in the UK and other parts of Europe will hamper product tanker demand in the rest of 2020 and in 1H21. Moreover, oil products demand is unlikely to return to 2019 levels before 2022. In such a situation, the medium-term outlook is also bearish for the product tanker market.
Given our expectations of a weaker product tanker market in 2021 and bearish medium-term outlook, we believe the ongoing rally in product tanker stocks is unlikely to last. In 1H20, product tanker owners saw a massive jump in profits, but we project earnings to be lower in 4Q20 and in 2021.
Floating Storage: A Ticking Time Bomb For The Crude Tanker Market
There is no denying that a sudden plunge in oil demand on account of COVID-19 proved to be a blessing in disguise for the oversupplied crude tanker market in 2Q20, which led to a surge in onshore and offshore storage of crude in March-April. While an increase in onshore storage of cheap oil by refineries boosted tonnage demand, a rise in floating storage of crude oil squeezed tonnage supply in the crude tanker market. Consequently, freight rates in the crude tanker market climbed to record highs in March-April 2020, when oil demand was at multi-year lows.
However, with the gradual recovery in oil demand, many vessels locked-in floating storage have started to return to trade, hurting freight rates. Although freight rates, both in the period as well as spot markets, have come down significantly from the highs in April, they are still not truly reflective of the weak demand-supply fundamentals. The 1-year TC rate for VLCCs has declined from an average $60,000pd in April to $35,000pd in August. Nonetheless, about 7% of the crude tanker fleet, including 64 VLCCs, was still locked in floating storage at the end of August with the majority of these vessels storing oil offshore China.
Yet another round of floating storage surge in the offing?
An increase in short-term period chartering of VLCCs in the first half of September has increased market speculation about another surge in floating storage of crude oil. As charter rates have declined, any possible deepening in the crude price contango would provide a profitable floating storage opportunity to charterers. Moreover, as many short-term time-charter deals done in March-April for floating storage at high rates are now expiring, recent charter deals would possibly be a mere replacement charter. Nonetheless, considering the weak prospects for oil demand, we do not expect any significant deepening in the contango and a rise in floating storage.
When will the floating storage bubble bust?
Floating storage has artificially squeezed tonnage supply in the crude tanker market, supporting freight rates. However, floating storage is a ticking time bomb for the crude tanker market since sooner or later, these vessels will return to trade crude, and the resultant influx of tonnage in the market will eventually hurt freight rates. The timing of the return of these vessels to crude oil trade will thus decide the fate of the crude tanker market.
As the prospects for oil demand over the next couple of years are not bright, the chance of any significant surge in oil prices is limited. In such a scenario, the upcoming winter season will provide the best exit opportunity for traders to offload oil stored on vessels, as demand will climb higher during this period. The influx of tonnage from floating storage in such a case will thus negate any significant recovery in freight rates this winter, and thus VLCC earnings in 4Q20 would remain significantly lower than what FFAs suggest.
Tankers: Little Movement on the Rates
A quiet week in the Middle East resulted in little movement on the rates. 280,000mt Middle East Gulf to USG via the Cape/Cape routing still being assessed at the WS21 level and 270,000mt to China slipped a couple of points to W33/34 region.
In the Atlantic, 260,000mt West Africa to China nudged down similarly to WS37.5, while a more active USG export market saw four ships reported on subjects at levels between $5.35m and $5.3875m for the 270,000mt US Gulf to China trip, which is now assessed at $5.38-5.39m level. That's modestly up about $60k from last week.
Rates for 135,000mt Black Sea/Med managed to climb 7.5 points to WS62.5-63 region while 130,000mt West Africa/UKContinent gained a meagre 2 points to WS49-50 level. The 140,000mt Middle East Gulf to Med trade remained static at around WS23.
In the Mediterranean market, owners came under pressure again and rates have eased about a point to WS57.5 for 80,000mt Ceyhan/Med. In Northern Europe, rates for 80,000mt Cross-North Sea increased three points to about WS82.5, while 100,000mt Baltic/UKCont saw a similarly positive effect to close to WS57.5. Across the Atlantic rates have marginally increased with the 70,000mt Carib/USGulf trade now at WS78, up a couple of points. 70,000mt USGulf/UKCont voyages are five points higher than a week ago at WS80.
In the Middle East Gulf, rates for 75,000mt to Japan have been under pressure. After starting the week in the high WS50S, Clearlake were able to finally set the tone and fix BW tonnage at WS55. In the 55,000mt trade, rates were steady at WS60 level. It was a disappointing week for owners plying the 37,000mt UKC to USAC trade with the market easing from WS102.5 a week ago to WS95. This is last seen fixed here but brokers feel there is potential for further softening – and the market now is assessed in the low WS90s. In the backhaul business from the US Gulf, charterers have generally held the upper hand and have been able to chip away at rates which have eased now from WS102.5 level a week ago to sit at close to WS 92.5. It was another uninspiring week for owners in the 30,000mt clean cross-Med trade with rates only able to nudge up at best five points to WS85 and there is still plenty of early tonnage available.
Oil product tanker S&P activity down 45% as new reality unfolds
Oil product tankers earnings have skyrocketed in the first half of 2020, while the Sale and Purchase (S&P) activity of the oil product tanker market has slowed to the lowest level since 2016. Data from VesselsValue highlight that in the first five months of 2020, only 2.8m DWT of oil product tankers have shifted hands in the second-hand market, a 45% drop compared to the same period last year.
A surprising S&P slowdown?
The oil product tanker market has thereby experienced a disconnect in the first half of 2020 with high spot earnings, while S&P activity has remained subdued.
However, S&P activity, as well as the 1-year time charter rate, often serve as better indicators for the strength of the underlying oil product tanker market. Although the oil product tanker S&P activity picked up slightly in May to 0.49m DWT from 0.33 in April, it is hardly a change in trend.
The low appetite for second-hand oil product tankers, despite spiking spot earnings, partly indicate that the medium-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. This is also indicated by the 1-year time MR charter rates that have started to feel the heat in June with substantial declines in a matter of weeks.
Plunging oil demand gives dire outlook
The jury is still out as to which shape the recovery of the global economy will take. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently placed their bets on a swoosh-shaped recovery with real global GDP forecast to decline by 4.9% in 2020 but grow 5.4% in 2021. BIMCO similarly expects the global economy to recover at a slow and gradual pace.
No matter the recovery shape of the global economy, annual oil demand is set to plunge in 2020. In June 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that oil demand for the full year of 2020 would decline by 8.1 million barrels per day. The worst drop in oil demand was seen in Q2, but demand will continue to be impaired in the coming months and negatively impact the prospects for oil product tankers in the second half of 2020.
Evidently, this bleak outlook has manifested itself in the S&P market. The low S&P activity in the first five months of 2020 stand in massive contrast to the two preceding years, where the S&P market was substantially more liquid. VesselsValue data highlights that S&P activity remained high through 2018 and 2019, with a total sales amounting to respectively 12.2m and 13.5m DWT, as the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap deadline approached.
2 out of 3 transactions had a European seller
Data by top 10 nations of buyers underscore that especially Asian and European buyers have shown greater appetite for oil product tankers. Chinese buyers accounted for 22.3% amongst the 10 largest buyers, while Greece and Denmark respectively accounted for 23.6% and 12.3%. Other large oil product tanker buyer nations in 2019 included Singapore, Indonesia, and United Arab Emirates.
The fragmented nature on the buyer side is not mirrored on the seller side, where Europe stands out as the dominating region, accounting for a whopping 67% of total sales by top 10 seller countries in 2019. As on the buyer side, Greece and Denmark stand out as the largest nations with respectively 28.1% and 19.8% shares of the top 10 seller countries. Singapore and Japan were the largest Asian seller nations in 2019 with 13.6% and 10.6% shares of total sales by the top 10 seller nations.
Oil product tanker asset prices down by 15.7%
Asset prices for oil product tankers have gradually recovered since 2017. As was the case with S&P activity, asset prices started to notably gain steam in the build-up to the 2020 IMO sulphur regulation coming into effect. This development is particularly evident with asset prices for medium-range (MR) oil product tankers, the workhorse of the segment, which peaked in the fall of 2019. At that time, a 5-year old MR2, defined as 41-55k DWT, had appreciated to just above 30 million USD, a large improvement from the 2016 low of around 23 million USD.
However, prices have started to dip in 2020 with the second-hand price for a 5-year old MR down by 15.7% year-to-date as of June 30 2020. Given the current oil demand forecasts which suggests a gradual recovery, it is likely that asset prices will continue to lose steam in the coming months.
However, asset prices are likely to settle at a price floor at some point, as the asset-play investors eye opportunities and enter the market. The asset-play strategy is essentially a game of patience and timing, where investors patiently wait for asset prices to depreciate and then strike when prices are perceived to be sufficiently low. The Global Financial Crisis in 2008 briefly plunged most of the shipping markets into the abyss, and in many cases cut asset prices in half, which allowed well-capitalised investors to strike.
The context of the economic crisis in 2020 differs greatly from that of 2008, but asset prices are similarly poised to depreciate significantly. In turn, the sharp depreciation of oil product tanker asset prices in 2020 will likely pave the way for a pick-up in S&P activity later in the year.
Tanker Market: April Was A Stellar Month
April was a stellar month for the tanker market, with both dirty and clean rates continuing to see spikes during the month, OPEC said in its latest monthly report. The volatile trend that began in early March continued into April, with dirty freight rates peaking early in the month and then trending lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand that continued through April, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as a collapse in demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns, storage constraints and a strong contango structure for key products gave refiners and traders an incentive to boost product exports and to turn to floating storage. However, these market trends were quickly overwhelmed, sending rates down to more typical levels by the end of the month. The implementation of the historic OPEC+ decision in May along with sharp reductions in capex and drilling activities in the US are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provide offsetting support.
Global spot fixtures fell m-o-m in April, declining by 0.8 mb/d, or 4%, from the high levels seen in the previous month to average 19.1 mb/d. Spot fixtures were broadly in line with the performance seen in the same month last year. Fixtures remained at high levels supported by crude bookings from major exporters, which picked up from the previous month.
OPEC spot fixtures averaged 13.79 mb/d in April, broadly in line the previous month, but an increase of 0.6 mb/d or 5% y-o-y. Fixtures from the Middle East-to-East were also stable m-o-m in April at 7.9 mb/d. Y-o-y, fixtures on the route were 1.1 mb/d, or 16%, higher. Middle East-to-West fixtures declined 14% m-o-m in April coming off the substantial gain seen in the previous month. Fixtures on the route averaged 2.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.7 mb/d, or 41%, over the same month last year. Outside of the Middle East, fixtures recovered from the previous month's decline, rising 0.5 mb/d or 17% m-o-m to average 3.4 mb/d in April. In annual terms, fixtures were sharply lower, registering a decline of 1.2 mb/d or 26%.
OPEC sailings jumped 1.9 mb/d in April to average 25.74 mb/d and increased1.1 mb/d, or 5%, compared to April 2019. Middle East sailings rose 0.6 mb/d, or 3%, m-om to average 17.75 mb/d for a y-o-y gain of 0.6 mb/d or 4%. Crude arrivals were higher in April on all routes outside the Far East. Arrivals in West Asia saw the highest gains, increasing 6% m-o-m, although remaining broadly at the level seen in April last year. Arrivals in North America rose 1% m-o-m to average 7.9 mb/d. Y-o-y, arrivals were still 26% lower on the route. Arrivals in Europe were broadly consistent m-o-m in April averaging 11.0 mb/d In contrast, Far East arrivals declined 9% m-o-m to average 8.0 mb/d in April, but were broadly in line with the level achieved in the same month last year.
The positive momentum that began in March continued on into April with an increase in cargoes and demand for floating storage supporting rates. As a result, VLCC spot freight rates saw further gains across the board during the month, with rates rising by 16% on average m-o-m. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route led gains in April, up 23% m-o-m to average WS156 and were up three-fold compared to the same month last year. Freight rates for tankers operating on the Middle East-to-West route rose 2% m-o-m in April, on top of the substantial jump seen the month before, to average WS103. Y-o-y, rates were almost five-times as high. Increased activity also tightened the West Africa-to-East route, where rates rose 20% to WS145, representing a gain of more than 200% compared with April 2019.
Suezmax rates also benefited from the higher activity, with average spot freight rates increasing 16% m-o-m on average in April. Y-o-y, rates were up 118%. Rates for tankers operating on the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast (USGC) route averaged WS140 in April, an increase of 14% over the month before. Y-o-y, rates were 133% higher than in April last year. The Northwest Europe (NWE)-to-USGC route rose 4% m-o-m to average WS102, representing a 100% jump compared to the same month last year.
Aframax rates rose 8% in April, mirroring gains in other classes to a lesser extent. Compared to the same month last year, rates were 85% higher.The Indonesia-to-East route led Aframax gains, increasing 28% to average WS154. The Cross-Med route rose 10% to average WS149, while the Mediterranean-to-NWE route gained 7% to average WS156.
Only the Caribbean to US East Coast (USEC) route experienced a decline m-o-m, dropping 7% to average WS153, but still managed a strong y-o-y increase of 95% to average WS153.
Crude oil tanker earnings drop 68% in nine days
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China dropping 68% in just nine days (from USD 222,591 per day on 22 April to USD 71,885 per day on 4 May). In the same period, daily VLCC earnings from the Middle East Gulf to the US Gulf have plunged nearly 80% (from USD 162,433 per day to USD 36,249).
The window of extraordinary earnings closed at the end of April with the OPEC+ oil production cuts of 9.7 m/bpd on 1 May, reducing the flood of oil in the market. The tanker market is now challenged by a collapse in oil demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
The oil supply and demand shocks of 2020
The oil tanker market has enjoyed a paradise of profitability, but very much on borrowed time since the outbreak of the oil price war. As the oil supply shock abates, the effect of the unprecedented oil demand shock, estimated to be a drop of 23.1 m/bpd in the second quarter, will set in.
Perhaps, second only to a coronavirus vaccine, oil storage has been the most sought-after item in recent months. This has been reflected in the skyrocketing crude oil tanker time-charter rates brought about by oil suppliers and traders seeking to charter ships for floating storage.
The uptick in floating storage in 2020, temporarily removing capacity from the market, is not expected to provide a silver lining that can offset the faltering demand and overcapacity. One can only hope that the strong earnings have fortified the cash reserves of oil tanker companies for the treacherous months that lie ahead.
Americas Tanker Freight climbs on Depressed Crude Price Dynamics
Rising demand for floating storage boosted freight rates for tankers carrying crude out of the Americas on Tuesday as prices for prompt US light sweet barrels were pressured by onshore storage constraints and a runaway supply overhang.
Charterers were left at the mercy of shipowners for storage opportunities as the crude contango structure steepened and as the Persian Gulf saw an influx of cargo inquiries with Tuesday's announcement of Saudi Arabian crude cargo stem nominations for May, sources said.
"With TD3C (270,000 mt Persian Gulf-China route) where it is, owners can do whatever they like," a shipbroker said. "Throw in the storage bankruptcy and it's all very good if you are a tanker owner for now."
The cost of taking a VLCC on a US Gulf Coast-China voyage was assessed at lump sum $17 million Tuesday, on a 270,000 mt basis, up $1.7 million, or 11%, day on day, and 13.3% week on week.
The NYMEX WTI May futures recovered to expire at $10.01/b at the Houston close Tuesday, after falling to negative $37.63/b Monday, an all-time low for the prompt-month contract amid fears of May barrels filling tanks to the brim in Cushing, Oklahoma.
In recent weeks, crude sources have noted a continued slump in spot physical cargo trading activity, citing global supply and demand shocks brought on by the global spread of the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing dispute over production cuts between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The sparring was resolved through an agreement to output cuts of 9.7 million b/d, but lasting impacts from the resulting supply overhang have continued to take a toll on the petroleum complex. Still, crude supplies continue to be higher as producers rush to shut-in wells and lingering barrels from the output dispute make their way to the USGC.
Meanwhile, pressure on values of crude along the USGC grows as more Saudi Arabian crude carriers appear to be on the way, adding to the pileup of Middle Eastern crude without a buyer in the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently some 12 laden VLCCs heading to the USGC and expected to arrive between April 24-May 21 after loading at Ras Tanura, according to S&P Global Platts analytics and cFlow. It is unclear if all 12 tankers will be able to unload upon arrival due to storage constraints. Three Saudi Arabian-flagged VLCCs were observed on the USGC Tuesday morning, believed to be laden.
FLOATING STORAGE PAYOFF
In the spot physical cargo market, West Texas Intermediate crude offered along the USGC was assessed at a $5.26/b, or $38.92/mt discount to the 15- to 45-day forward Dated Brent strip, having risen $3.75/b from an all-time low Monday in tandem with the NYMEX May WTI weakness.
Floating storage costs are more than paid-off, with the NYMEX WTI May carry between the May and October contracts settled at $15.55/b, or $115.07/mt, Tuesday.
A typical storage play is booked on larger tonnage VLCCs, with a six-month minimum time charter agreement booked at $86,000/day last week, however, sources talked of possible next done levels on storage deals in a range of $110,000/day to $140,000/day Tuesday, or $73.33/mt-$93.33/mt, and for 180 days above the $200,000/day level, or $22.22/mt, for shorter 30-day charters, with the USGC region possibly demanding higher earnings.
"A [VLCC] open in the USGC can make around [$200,000/day] for 70+ days on a spot charter so why bother with a potentially short period and less money," a shipowner said.
CHARTER INTEREST IN MID-SIZE TANKERS
Charterer interest has shifted into mid-size tankers for storage as rates have become marginally more favorable, along with convenient positioning and availability in specific regions like the Mediterranean and West Africa. Additionally, Suezmaxes tend to have heating coils unlike their larger VLCC counterparts, making them even more favorable to charterers, sources said.
"There has been an uptick in storage inquiries, more people asking questions," a Suezmax shipowner said Tuesday. "No one seems to be committing just yet."
Six-month floating storage contracts were last done at $55,000/day or $76.15/mt per 180 days, with owner indications moving to the $57,500/day to $65,000/day or $79.62/mt to $90.00/mt for 180 days range to start the week, all basis 130,000 mt stored. Charterers have been heard bidding Aframaxes for 30-180 day storage plays at $45,000/day or at $90/mt for 180 days basis 90,000 mt stored.
Condition Survey Requirement For Tankers Carrying Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) As Cargo
As part of a concerted industry effort to ensure higher ship standards, the International Group of P&I Clubs continues to implement survey triggers for seagoing vessels of 10 years of age or more carrying HFO.
As a consequence, all sea-going vessels aged 10 years or more which have carried heavy HFO as cargo within the previous 12 months will be subject to condition survey, unless:
the vessel has undergone a P&I club condition survey during the previous 12 months; or
the vessel has undergone a Special Survey during the previous 6 months; or
the vessel has a valid Condition Assessment Program (CAP) rating of 1 or 2 with a classification society having membership in the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS).
HFO is defined as residual fuel with a kinematic viscosity of 380 centipoises when measured at 50 degrees Celsius by the ISO 3104 test method. This excludes vessels carrying intermediate fuel oils or heavy crudes, as well as those carrying bitumen or tar.
Members should note that a declaration is now required so that the Club may determine whether HFO has in fact been carried by an insured vessel as cargo during a relevant policy period. Therefore, the first declaration must be made this year as soon as possible, but not later than April 30, 2020 for vessels carrying HFO between February 20, 2019 and February 20, 2020.
If a vessel continues to carry HFO as cargo over a period of successive years, the Club is not obliged to carry out a survey every year. However, a survey will need to be held at least every three years after the first survey has taken place. It is at the Club's discretion whether or not to undertake surveys on a more frequent basis.
As always, the Managers will be pleased to respond to all enquiries arising from the above.
IMO 2020: What's The Implication in the Tanker Market So Far?
In the weeks leading up to 2020, a lot of analysts were predicting a solid rebound in product tanker market freight rates, a scenario which, for the most part, was materialized. So, how has the market reacted in the weeks after the start of 2020? In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that "2020 was always going to create a more complex fuel oil market as trade flows shifted and new grades emerged. The first and most obvious impact was a collapse in the volumes of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) flowing from West to East – a trend which emerged from the second quarter of 2019. Trade in low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) then gradually began to rise from Q2 2019 as traders/suppliers sought to gradually build stocks ahead of 2020. However, total volumes (irrespective of sulphur content) have not recovered to the levels seen in 2018, with lower arbitrage flows impacting on long haul tanker movements. In 2018, 1.17 million b/d of fuel oil was shipped from West to East. In 2019, this dropped to average 760,000 b/d, (down by 410,000 b/d YOY). So, where has this fuel gone if it hasn't headed East, and how are fuel oil flows expected to evolve in the future?"
According to Gibson, "the US increased imports of HSFO and vacuum gasoil (VGO) towards the end of 2019 and is expected to remain an outlet for these grades for the foreseeable future, providing pricing is favorable. Seasonal fluctuations will of course play a role. Eastbound HSFO trade is expected to pick up in the summer when Middle East energy demand peaks. Given OPEC+ cuts, Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers will likely burn more fuel oil in order to minimize crude direct burn (which has declined in recent years anyway)".
The shipbroker added that "China had been expected to add to VLSFO supplies, having introduced a tax rebate in January. However, given the coronavirus outbreak, higher Chinese supplies might take time to emerge, supporting Asian import demand. Although, this may be countered by lower bunkering demand if global trade is particularly hard hit. The startup of two 35,000 b/d very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) producing units in the first half of 2020, (one in Malaysia and one in Korea) will add to regional VLSFO supply later in this year, which when combined with expected higher output from China, may limit the need to increase LSFO imports into Asia. The eventual startup of Aramco's Jazan refinery is also expected to add to Middle East fuel oil availability, potentially reducing Saudi Arabia's import requirements".
Gibson added that "it is also unclear at this stage how much HSFO has been eradicated from the system through refinery upgrades or changing crude slates. Given that large scale floating storage has not yet emerged, it appears the global system has been able to absorb much of the surplus. Looking at inventories in the major bunkering hubs, except for Fujairah, fuel oil/residue stocks (irrespective of sulphur content) are within historical ranges. Demand for marine gasoil (MGO) as a bunker fuel (at the expense of VLSFO) remains uncertain. Initially, MGO was expected to be the preferred bunker fuel of choice until VLSFO supply and quality concerns were overcome. However, VLSFO stole an early march on MGO. Now, reports are emerging from Northern Europe that bunker sales have been shifting in favour of MGO in recent weeks. The expectation remains that VLSFO will become the dominant fuel, although only time will tell. The markets will continue to adjust over the coming months, after which it will become clearer which trends are long term vs. short term adjustments".
The shipbroker concluded that "another testing week for unbalanced VLCCs to endure.Rates remained stuck in the very low ws 40's East and theoretically mid ws 20's West via Cape but scrubber fitted units were willing into the mid ws 30's East, which would translate into loss making returns for non-fitted units. With Chinese demand waivering and availability still weighty, Owners truly have nowhere to go…delays and disruptions developing in the Far Eastern hubs are the only realistic hope. Suezmaxes drifted sideways, and then downwards upon insipid demand and easy supply. 130,000mt by ws 75 East and to ws 35 West now, with little expectation of any near term snap back. Aframaxes wrestled free from their muddy 80,000mt by ws 100 AGulf/Singapore bottom but so far by only a few ws points, the groundwork has now been done for something a bit better next week though", Gibson said.
Fujairah oil stocks fall 6 percent on week
Oil product stocks at Fujairah in the UAE fell 6 percent week on week to 22.804 million barrels on 10th February, with inventories of all products falling except light distillates, which hit a 6-month high, data released by the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, FOIZ, showed.
Stocks of heavy distillates and residues, including fuel oils used for marine fuel and power generation, fell 7.6 per cent in the week to 11.88 million barrels, the data showed.
Middle distillates inventories, which include jet fuel, marine bunker gasoil, kerosene and diesel, plunged 27.3 per cent over the same period to 2.949 million barrels, the lowest since 28th September last year.
However, inventories of gasoline and other light distillates bucked the downtrend, rising 8.8 per cent on the week to 7.975 million barrels, the highest since 19th August last year, according to the FOIZ data compiled by S&P Global Platts. Platts holds exclusive rights to publish Fujairah oil inventory data, and has deployed a blockchain network for its collation.
FOIZ was established to develop the petroleum strategy for investment in the region. According to FOIZ, 11 terminals are participating in the weekly stock reporting, including storage volumes involved in activities such as blending and refining.
Stranded tankers, full storage tanks: coronavirus leads to crude glut in China
The coronavirus's effect on energy markets is worsening, as the sharp fall in demand in China, the world's largest importer of crude, is stranding oil cargoes off the country's coast and prompting shippers to seek out other Asian destinations.
More than 1,360 people have died from the coronavirus in China, which has disrupted the world's second largest economy and shaken energy markets, with international benchmark Brent crude oil down 15% since the beginning of the year.
Major international energy forecasters expect demand to fall in this quarter, the first drop in a decade, due to the outbreak.
Chinese refineries have cut output by about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) over just two weeks, causing crude stocks to pile up.
That has left numerous Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), capable of holding more than 2 million barrels of crude each, unable to unload at China's top crude import terminal of Qingdao, Refinitiv data shows.
Other cargoes are being diverted to South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and other locales in China, while storage tanks in Shandong province – where Qingdao is located – are filling swiftly, sources said.
Oil storage tanks in China's eastern Shandong province are nearing peaks seen last June as independent refiners slash processing rates, industry sources said.
"We are cutting runs, but we still have (crude) cargoes on the way," said a Chinese refinery source, adding that the company was still exploring options as land storage is limited and it is costly to store on ships.
Shandong's commercial and strategic crude oil stocks are currently at 171.5 million barrels, not far from their peak of 175 million barrels in early June last year, according to oil analytics firm Kpler.
"In theory, there is a lot of spare capacity to fill, but we have never seen this full utilization" of storage, said Kpler analyst Alexander Booth, adding that utilization rates are currently at 61% in Shandong, versus 63% at last year's peak.
China's overall crude storage is at 760 million barrels, versus a peak of 780 million barrels in early June last year, Kpler's data shows.
DEMURRAGE COSTS RISE, FREIGHT RATES PLUNGE
The lack of space in tanks is prompting traders to divert cargoes scheduled to arrive in February and March until China's demand improves, multiple trade and shipping sources said.
When vessels cannot be unloaded, their charterers have to pay what is known as demurrage costs. Those fees have climbed to more than $100,000 per day for a cargo arriving next week compared with about $90,000 per day for those loaded 40 days ago, prompting some shippers to try to transfer crude to older tankers that cost less to operate, they said.
Freight rates meanwhile, have plunged to nearly half the levels they were at as the virus has hit demand and after the U.S. partially lifted sanctions on one unit of Chinese shipping firm COSCO.
Sources at Shandong ports said while storage levels are high, they are working with refineries to move oil out and make way for more cargoes that are expected to arrive in the coming weeks.
"The pace of moving crude out from tanks is slow. So if vessels are arriving at the same time, some of them might need to wait for 2-3 days," said a source at Rizhao port in Shandong.
"We still have around 30% of space at our oil storage at this moment, which is already a lot better than the previous weeks, as truck drivers are gradually returning to work."
Manufacturing activity was paused for the Lunar New Year last month when the virus struck, preventing workers from returning to their jobs.
State-run ChemChina has diverted some crude oil cargoes which were supposed to arrive in China to floating storage near Malaysia, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. ChemChina did not respond to an email seeking comment.
Oil traders have signed new crude oil storage leases in South Korea, the nearest storage option to Qingdao, this week, said a source familiar with the matter.
Two supertankers – Universal Winner and Aegean Dream – carrying Brazilian crude originally heading for China have been diverted to the Singapore straits, Refinitiv data showed.
Tanker Market on Rollercoaster Mode
The tanker market has had quite a ride during the first month of 2020. According to the latest monthly report from OPEC, issued this week, dirty tanker spot freight rates in January continued the roller coast movement seen since September, this time giving back almost half the gains made in the previous month. However, rates remained some 50% higher than the same month last year, as the market remained optimistic about an improvement in rates in 2020. Seasonal factors were a key contributor to the decline. The outbreak and rapid spread of the Coronavirus temporarily upended the tanker market starting at the end of January, disrupting trade with China, the world's largest crude importer, and is certain to weigh on rates in February. After rising steadily since September 2019, clean tanker rates fell back in January, but remained slightly higher than the same month last year. Rates benefited from a strong start to the year, but have fallen in recent weeks, driven by seasonal factors.
Global spot fixtures edged down slightly in January, declining around 0.10 mb/d or 0.5% m-o-m, but down 1.6 mb/d, or 8%, compared to the previous year's levels.
OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.58 mb/d in January, up 1.4% or 180 tb/d higher than the previous month, but still almost 9% or 1.2 mb/d lower y-o-y. Fixtures from the Middle East-to-East jumped by almost 15%, or 1 mb/d, to average 7.71 mb/d in January, but fell 3% below last year's level. Middle East-to-West fixtures were sharply lower, down nearly 30% to 1.1 mb/d. Compared to the same month last year, rates on the route fell by over 18% or 260 tb/d. Outside of the Middle East fixtures averaged 3.75 mb/d in January, a decline of 0.5 mb/d, or over 11%, from the previous month, and were down 16%, or 0.7 mb/d, compared to the same month last year.
OPEC sailings declined by less than 1% m-o-m in January to average 24.93 mb/d. Sailings from the Middle East were 2%, or 120 tb/d, higher to average 18.36 mb/d in January. Crude arrivals were largely positive in January. Arrivals in the Far East increased 3% m-o-m and remained broadly in line with levels seen the same month last year. Arrivals in Europe were up 1% or 140 tb/d higher m-o-m but showed a stronger 9% or 1 mb/d increase y-o-y. Arrivals in North America were broadly unchanged from the previous month but were 12% or 1.3 mb/d lower y-o-y. West Asia was the only route showing a decline, down 200 tb/d or almost 5% m-o-m, but 130 mb/d or 3% higher y-o-y.
VLCC spot freight rates declined 17% in January, erasing the gains seen in the previous month to stand at WS79 points. The Middle East-to-East route has been up-and-down over the past four months, averaging WS93 points in January. Freight rates registered for tankers operating on the Middle East-to-West routes in January were down 16% m-o-m. At WS53 points, rates on the route were more than twice as high as the same month last year. West Africa-to-East routes in January also showed a similar pattern, down 17% m-o-m to stand at WS90 points, representing a gain of almost 60% compared to January 2019.
Suezmax average spot freight rates edged lower in January, declining 7% following a gain of 36% the month before. Y-o-y, Suezmax rates were 67% higher in January.
Rates for tankers operating on the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast (USGC) route averaged WS130 points, representing a m-o-m decline of 8% in January. Y-o-y, however, rates were 68% higher in January compared to the same month last year. The Northwest Europe-to-USGC route edged down 3% m-o-m to average WS108 points, which was some 66% higher than the same month last year.
After a strong finish to the year, Aframax rates fell back some 7% to average WS119 points, but remained 42% higher than the same month last year. The Indonesia-to-East route was 18% lower to average WS151 points, but still represented a gain of 35% y-o-y. Both the intra-Med and the Med-to-Northwest Europe routes fell 24% to average WS151 points. Both routes, however, saw y-o-y gains of 15% and 9%, respectively. Only the Caribbean-to-US East Coast route enjoyed a m-o-m increase, up 29% to average WS320 points, which was 90% higher y-o-y.
The clean spot tanker market declined for the first time since August, down 19% but still 7% higher than the same month last year. Clean tanker spot freight rates West of Suez averaged WS251 points, representing a decline of 20% since the previous month. The Mediterranean-to-Mediterranean and Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe routes saw declines of around 24% to average WS214 points and WS224 points, respectively. Meanwhile, rates on the Northwest Europe-to-USEC route fell 8% to WS165 points. However, rates on West of Suez routes all showed improvements of up to 25% compared to the same month last year. On the East of Suez route, clean tanker spot freight rates fell 17% m-o-m in January to average WS170 points, with the Singapore-to-East route declining 14% m-o-m to average WS152 points, while the Middle East-toEast route declined 20% m-o-m to average WS130 points.
IMO 2020 – Lower Sulphur Means Higher Freight Rates
When we last looked at the IMO 2020 MARPOL Annex VI policy back in 2018 Q4, there were many sources of ambiguity in terms of the outlook. These included scrubber uptake, fuel options and availability, freight rates and the expectations on policy enforcement. As we approach the 1 January 2020 deadline for the policy, we have greater clarity on the likely impact of the policy on fuel prices. CRU's view is that the IMO 2020 regulation is likely to raise freight rates by around 10-20%.
Scrubber uptake has been more prevalent than anticipated
From our discussions with Maritime Strategies International (MSI) and other active participants in the freight market, we now expect a higher uptake of scrubbers. We estimate that 20-25% of the larger Capesize vessels will have scrubbers fitted by end 2020. For the mid-size Panamax vessels, the uptake is lower at 5%. The smaller Handymax vessels are unlikely to install scrubbers at all. Considering the share of each type of vessel we calculate that in 2020, 10%-15% of total ocean-going freight capacity will employ scrubbers, rising to ~20% by 2025. More Capesize capacity will be fitted with scrubbers because the vessel size and the typical length of voyage mean a larger volume of fuel is burned making the capital investment and the pay-off period much more attractive. In addition, Capesize vessels generally travel on fixed routes between very large ports (e.g. Brazil or Australia to China), where the likelihood of the high sulphur fuel oil (IFO180) being available is greater than that of a small port.
We have revised our process for calculating the optimal time period over which the investment in a scrubber is expected to be paid off. We now consider only the difference in freight rates as the variable that will determine the optimal pay-off period. As a result, the pay-off period is now expected to be 12-18 months, on average. Of course, we expect this to vary between different shipowners for a variety of reasons.
Of the vessels fitted and due to be fitted with scrubbers, most have opted for the open loop option (where the exhaust gases are washed with sea water and discharged into the sea). This comes as a surprise as closed-loop scrubbers initially were considered to be more environmentally friendly as the 'waste' was instead disposed of after treatment at ports. However, since some studies have concluded that there is no notable negative environmental impact to using open loop vessels, many companies fitting scrubbers are willing to take the risk; they are assuming that there will not be a subsequent policy to remove open-loop scrubbers from operations any time soon. Open loop scrubbers cut down on installation and running costs, along with the logistics of carrying and disposing of the waste. There are some regions (Singapore and Fujairah) where an open loop scrubber is not allowed to operate, but until we see such controls at major ports such as Rotterdam, Qingdao and Newcastle the movement of bulk vessels will be largely unaffected.
Fuel blending will achieve compliance
Bunker fuel is a residual fuel of the oil refining process, it is cheap, has high sulphur content and has been the standard fuel used by the shipping industry. The most common types of bunker fuels are IFO 380 and IFO 180, in our work we have focussed on IFO 180. The IMO regulation will limit sulphur emissions and therefore requires shipowners to consider the options available to comply. Fuel blending will be key to achieving compliance. The extent to which fuel type needs to be changed depends on the extent to which emissions need to be cut.
Do not hesitate to contact us on +30 210 452 7000, or via our web platform
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Boxing Streaming Sites – What to Look For
When we talk about Boxing streaming sites, various types of content are available to you; some have rules and regulations. So the main thing is that if you can stream Boxing matches online, you should choose a site compatible with your ISP connection and device.
Boxing has always been a sport that has intrigued people. The drama of the ring, the intense physicality of the sport, and the fans' passion are all reasons Boxing has always been popular.
But with the advent of streaming sites like BoxingHub, BoxingFights, and BoxingStream, the fight fan can now watch fights anywhere, anytime, and for free.
For many years, Boxing has been a traditional sport. But, over the past decade, Boxing has been brought into the modern world thanks to streaming sites like BoxingHub, BoxingFights, and BoxingStream.
These sites make watching boxing events easy and accessible for anyone.
With the rise of streaming sites, some people believe that Boxing is no longer a traditional sport but a fad.
But with the advent of streaming sites, Boxing is moving into the modern world, thanks to streaming sites like BoxingHub, BoxingFights, and BoxingStream.
What are Boxing streaming sites?
How to find boxing streaming sites
How to set up boxing streaming sites
How to make money from Boxing streaming sites
Frequently Asked Questions about Boxing Streaming Sites
Top myths about Boxing Streaming Sites
Boxing is a sport that's always been dominated by a select few. From Muhammad Ali and Joe Louis to Mike Tyson and Floyd Mayweather, the list of world champions is full of boxers who made a name for themselves in the sport.
With the advent of streaming sites like BoxingHub, BoxingFights, and BoxingStream, the fight fan can now watch fights anywhere, anytime, and for free.
While the vast majority of fights are still broadcasted, there's a growing number of boxing streaming sites that allow viewers to watch fights live.
These sites stream fights to users from all over the world, and they do so legally.
Finding a boxing streaming site can be difficult, especially when looking for a specific fight. It may be easier to look for areas that broadcast boxing matches.
I've been a boxing fan since I was young, so I wanted to share some of my favorite boxing sites with you. Below are my top 5 boxing streaming sites. These sites will help you find and stream the most up-to-date fights online. They are all free and easy to use. Best Boxing Streaming Sites Boxing is a great sport, and I love watching it. But, I recommend looking for sites that broadcast fights relevant to your interests. So, I decided to list my favorite boxing streaming sites.
I've compiled a list of some of the most popular streaming sites below.
Several people have asked how they can find Boxing streaming sites online. There is a ton of information, and finding the right streaming site can be a real pain.
To start, we should define what we mean by "boxing streaming site." This can be any site that streams live boxing matches, including free sites like BoxingHub, BoxingFights, and BoxingStream.
BoxingStream is one of the largest Boxing streaming sites in the world, with over 1 million monthly visitors.
So how do you know if a streaming site is legit?
It's pretty simple. If a site is streaming live fights, it'll have a live stream on its homepage. They'll list the arguments on the front page if they're broadcasting a pay-per-view event.
If you see a site streaming a boxing event and are unsure if it's legitimate, it's probably safe to assume it is. You'd only see a questionable site if they're trying to fool you into paying for something you didn't intend to.
With Boxing being so popular, it is no surprise that boxing streaming sites are booming. While you can't exactly make money from Boxing, you can make money by building a relationship with boxing fans.
Boxing is one of the most popular sports in the world and has been for many years. It has been around since the 1800s, and many types of Boxing exist. Boxing is also a very popular sport in the UK and the USA. The popularity of Boxing has led to an increase in the number of Boxing streaming sites available. Boxing Streaming Sites There are many different types of Boxing, but most are very similar. The main difference between them is the weight of the boxer, their height, and how many gloves they wear.
You can do this by giving away prizes and rewards for watching a particular fight, creating a free trial where people can sign up, or even offering discounts on a subscription.
I recommend creating a free trial where people can sign up for a month. With Boxing being a sport typically more expensive than other sports, it makes sense to give boxing fans a taste of what they can enjoy.
And if they stick around, you can offer them a discount on a paid subscription.
You can also charge them to advertise on your site, add them to your mailing list, and engage them in other ways.
Q: How can I watch Boxing online?
A: You can watch Boxing live on television or pay-per-view. Online Boxing is usually available free on sites like YouTube, Dailymotion, or Facebook.
Q: Which website should I use to watch my favorite fighters?
A: You should use the official site of the boxer you want to follow. For example, you can watch Floyd Mayweather's fights at www.mayweather.com. However, if you watch other fighter fights, you should use the official site for that fighter.
Q: Why do I have to pay to watch a fight?
A: To watch Boxing online, you usually have to pay a fee. The fee is usually either $10 or $20. If you can't afford to pay the price, you can wait until it becomes available on a pay-per-view channel.
You have to subscribe to the streaming sites.
It would be best if you had a smartphone or tablet to watch Boxing.
Streaming sites are just for children and teenagers.
There's no doubt that Boxing is becoming an increasingly popular sport to watch. But it's not just because of the drama or the fact that it's a brutal sport. The truth is that it's become one of the safest sports to watch, thanks to the technological advancement in video streaming.
So whether you're looking to get into Boxing or have a few spare hours, I hope this article helps you get started.
Good For Mental Health – How To Keep Your Mind Focused

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


If you are suffering from overweight problems, shedding around 20 pounds of fat will help you more merely. Losing just some 5 to 10% of the body weight will bring significant health benefits, as per the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As you start the dieting and work out schedule you will soon see a drop in blood pressure, improved blood sugar and healthier cholesterol levels. Not..


Top exchanges support the upcoming Ethereum's hard fork Constantinople. Coinbase and Kraken announced this on Twitter yesterday. Though, to a large extent, they have no options, because after the day X the old blockchain will not exist anymore. That is why Vitalik Buterin stresses that Constantinople should be called a "network upgrade" rather than a hard fork, so as not to cause unnecessary confusion since Constantinople will not create competitive chains at all.
The update should take place at the block №7,080,000, which is likely to be mined on January 16. In any case, we urge you neither panic, nor follow any scams, but wait for the upgraded ether.
Not by Ethereum alone. On January 17 a fork should happen in the EOS network — sidechain called BOS. "Born for DApps," developers say. The blockchain code is fully supported by the community of enthusiasts, which everyone can join.
Meanwhile, Ethereum Classic is recovering from a 51% attack which happened last week. Not successfully: commissions for the ETC transactions jumped by 800% in the previous day (from $ 0.71 to $ 6.10). Over the past week, cryptocurrency lost at a price of 15%.
Well, we are still summarising the results of the previous year: in 2018, the largest volume of crypto transactions was recorded on the exchanges. Compared with last year, traders bought and sold more in 2018: trade volume of the USD markets on Coinbase increased by 21%, on Bitfinex by 50%, and Kraken by 192%.


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On April 23, 2019	0 Comments	- 2020 - August 8 Issue, Column
By Meredith Hughes
It's over, finally… 2020. And yet, not that much has changed, pandemically speaking. "On" largely means "online," still. So, on we go, remotely.Email suggestions to corralescomment@gmail.com. Published the first issue of the month, What's On? invites suggestions one week before the publication date.
• Uffizi Gallery in Florence, Italy presents an exhibition of seldom-seen "Divine Comedy" sketches on display online to mark 700 years since Dante Alighieri died. See http://www.uffizi.it/en/online-exhibitions/dante-istoriato-hell#1
• Albuquerque Museum is offering virtual presentations for groups, into the "30 Americans" exhibition, with guidance provided by one of the museum's docents. Live on Zoom throughout January. Presentations are free, but must be scheduled in advance.Docents will provide a general overview of the exhibition which includes a 50-minute presentation with time for questions. The exhibition presents compelling art from three generations of African-American artists collected by the Rubell Museum in Miami, Florida. While the Rubell collection does not encompass a comprehensive representation of African American art in the United States, it does provide a sampling of important paintings, sculptures, photographs, videos, and installations that reveal some of the complexities of African-American culture. Contact jvanesky@cabq.gov.
• Poeh Cultural Center, part of Pojaque Pueblo, features an exhibition called Di Wae Powa. It showcases sacred, ancestral pueblo pottery that has been returned to the place of its origins, and is now housed in the acclaimed Poeh Museum. For over 100 years this Tewa Pueblo ancestral pottery was collected, shipped away and housed on the east coast, largely in private collections and the Smithsonian Institute's National Museum of the American Indian (NMAI).
• The Museum of Indian Arts and Culture is launching a virtual tour of its current exhibition, Diego Romero vs. the End of Art, a dynamic exploration of a Cochiti Pueblo artist's journey through life as depicted through his work. For decades, California-born Cochiti potter Diego Romero has created historical and autobiographical artworks. Acclaimed for his neo-Mimbres pottery illustrating Pueblo Indian history, his father's Korean War stories, and his relationships with women, family, substances and art, Romero's work lays bare the life of one Native artist and Native history. Until the Museum is able to reopen, visit with Diego Romero's stunning ceramics from the comfort and safety of your home. View the exhibition here: https://my.matterport.com/show/?m=2ZCajYqvgWg
• Bookworks, online event, January 12, 6:00 p.m. with Melinda Gates, author of The Moment of Lift: How Empowering Women Changes the World. "Gates traces her awakening to the link between women's empowerment and the health of societies. She shows some of the tremendous opportunities that exist right now to "turbo-charge" change. And she provides simple and effective ways each one of us can make a difference." To participate, purchase a paperback copy of the book to receive your link to the event. All tickets include a paperback copy of The Moment of Lift and a signed bookplate, while supplies last. https://www.bkwrks. com/melinda-gates
• N.M. Philharmonic "Replay," January 16, 6 p.m. A video of Beethoven's 7th, performed in March 2018 at Popejoy Hall, with music director Roberto Minzcuk conducting. The Seventh Symphony was conceived in support of soldiers fighting against Napoleon's occupation of Vienna in the early 1800s. Link to purchase individual performance ($12): https://nmphil. vhx.tv/checkout/tbd/purchase. Link to purchase full series: https://nmphil. vhx.tv/.../nmphil-now.../purchase...
• The National Philharmonic, based in DC, on January 17 presents "a celestially tilted program of "Music That Travels Through Space". Works by Alistair Coleman, Lili Boulanger, Osvaldo Golijov, Manuel Ponce, Luise Adolpha Le Beau, Carson Cooman and Claude Debussy, with images and videos from NASA. Found at https://nationalphilharmonic.org/event/music-that-travels-through-space/
The Adobe Theater on 4th Street is attempting to stay alive via virtual streaming performances. Coming up, January 14 – 16, at 7:30 p.m., and January 17 at 2:00 p.m. is Krapp's Last Tape, by Samuel Beckett. This short one-act play, written in 1958, is considered to be among Nobel Prize winner Beckett's major contributions to dramatic literature, which include Waiting for Godot and Happy Days. It is one of Beckett's most frequently performed dramas and has been referred to as "one of his most personal works."
In a clever move by Adobe, two actors will trade off playing Krapp in this one-man show.
To watch the show as performed by James Cady January 14 and 16, go here: https://www.showtix4u.com/event-details/44683
To watch the show as performed by Philip J. Shortell, January 15 and 17, see http://www.showtix4u.com/event-details/44684
In Corrales
• Village Council meetings, January 12 and 26, 6:30 p.m., via Zoom.
• Music in Corrales is offering on-line concerts. Running from January 23 through January 31 is a performance featuring Celtic fiddle and cellist duo, Alasdair Fraser and Natalie Haas, making their fifth appearance with MIC. Music lovers will pay $15 per ticket. Following the first viewing opportunity on January 23, Fraser and Haas will participate in a live question and answer session right after the concert, beginning at approximately 8:15 p.m. Tickets: https://www.musicincorrales.org/concert/fraser-and-haas-concert/
• Corrales Library Author series, January 26, at 7 p.m. with Corrales' Patricia Walkow sharing her newest book: New Mexico Remembers 9/11. Please contact Sandra Baldonado for Zoom event details. Hibernate with a Book Adult Reading Program is ongoing through the end of the month.sandra@corraleslibrary.org.
• Corrales Growers' Market, next Winter Market, February 7, 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.
• Village in the Village. Coffee hour, Fridays, 10 to 11a.m. via Zoom. Book Club, January 18 on Zoom: "Whiskey When We're Dry," by John Larison. The book is set in the American West of 1885 and chronicles the adventures of seventeen-year-old Jessilyn Harney, who, after being orphaned, rides west on her beloved mare posing as boy in search of her infamous outlaw brother, Noah. 3:00-4:00 p.m.
Copyright 2019 Corrales Comment


In 1961, famed astrophysics Frank Drake proposed a formula that came to be known as the Drake Equation. Based a series of factors, this equation sought to estimate the number of extra-terrestrial intelligences (ETIs) that would exist within our galaxy at any given time. Since that time, multiple efforts have been launched to find evidence of alien civilizations, which are collectively known as the search for extra-terrestial intelligence (SETI).
The most well-known of these is the SETI Institute, which has spent the past few decades searching the cosmos for signs of extra-terrestrial radio communications. But according to a new study that seeks to update the Drake Equation, a team of international astronomers indicate that even if we did find signals of alien origin, those who sent them would be long dead.
The study, titled "Area Coverage of Expanding E.T. Signals in the Galaxy: SETI and Drake's N", recently appeared online. The study was led by Claudio Grimaldi of the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPF-Lausanne), with the help of Geoffrey W. Marcy and Nathaniel K. Tellis (a Professor Emeritus and astronomer from the University of California Berkeley, respectively) and Francis Drake himself – who is now a professor emeritus at the SETI Institute and the University of California, Santa Cruz.
To recap, the Drake Equation states that the number of civilizations in our galaxy can be calculated by multiplying the average rate of star formation in our galaxy (R*), the fraction of stars that have planets ( fp), the number of planets that can support life (ne), the number of planets that will develop life (fl), the number of planets that will develop intelligent life (fl), the number that will develop transmissions technologies (fc), and the length of time that these civilizations will have to transmit signals into space (L).
This can be expressed mathematically as: N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L. For the sake of their study, the team began by making assumptions about two key parameters of the Drake Equation. In short, they assume that civilizations emerge in our galaxy (N) at a constant rate, and that they will not emit electromagnetic radiation (i.e. radio transmissions) indefinitely, but will experience some type of limiting event over time (L).
In short, they assumed that technologically-advanced civilizations are born and die in our galaxy at a constant rate. However, these civilizations do not produce communications at an indefinite rate, but their communications will still be traveling outwards at the speed of light, where they will be detectable within a certain volume of space. The team then developed a model of our galaxy to determine whether humanity would have any change at detecting these signals.
In the first case, each shell wall would have a thickness smaller than the size of our galaxy and would fill only a fraction of the galaxy's volume (thus inhibiting SETI detection). However, if there is a high enough birthrate of detectable civilizations, these shell walls may fill our galaxy and even overlap. In the second case, each radiation shell would be thicker than the size of our galaxy, making SETI detection more likely.
From all this, the team also calculated that the average number of E.T. signals crossing Earth at any given time would equal the number of civilizations currently transmitting. Unfortunately, they also determined that the civilizations we would be hearing from would have long since gone extinct. So basically, the civilizations we would be hearing from would not be the same ones that were presently broadcasting.
For those hoping to find evidence of extra-terrestrial intelligence in our lifetime, this is likely to be a bit discouraging. On the one hand (and depending on the number of alien civilizations that exist in our galaxy), we may have a hard time picking up extra-terrestrial transmissions. On the other, those that we do find may be coming from a civilization that has long since gone extinct.
It also means that if any civilization should pick up our radio wave transmissions someday, we won't be around to meet them. However, it does not rule out the possibility that we will find evidence that intelligent life has existed within our galaxy in the past. In fact, over the course of own our civilization's lifetime, humanity may find evidence of multiple ETIs that existed at one time.
In addition, none of this negates the possibility of finding evidence of an existing civilization. It's just not likely we'll be able to sample their music, entertainment or messages first!
I am in agreement that the Drake Equation needs updating (and subject to the availability of new information, knowledge & understanding, it must continue to be updated every now & then).
1. Even in the event that SETI (or by some other means) is to pick up an indisputable signal of an advanced alien civilization, there is no assurance that the culprits are today still present at the signal's place of origin (i.e. the location from where the signal was emitted from).
2. Neither is there a guarantee that these aliens will still be on hand to receive a reply from us should we decide to issue one via METI or some other ways.
The theory that "technologically-advanced civilizations are born and die in our galaxy at a constant rate." is a huge assumption. There are other huge assumptions in Drake's equation, but this one jumps out at me as being pessimistic at best.
I suspect that as civilizations increase in their tech, they become more capable of becoming multi-planet, multi-galaxy and as far as we know, even multi-universal species.
Just because our species has a tenancy to try to kill ourselves off, doesn't mean all other species are as ill-tempered. Now the exploding star, being too close to a black hole and all of those catastrophic events could still take them out, but they are foreseeable and a truly advanced civilization would pick up and move.
We are at the threshold of being a multi-planetary species ourselves. If geopolitical forces would have maintained their high temperature through the end of the last century, we would have either blown ourselves up in a nuclear conflagration or developed enough tech to be able to have more significant off planet capabilities.
As it is, it took a visionary like Elon Musk to ring the wake up bell and we are again on our way, hopefully without all of the geopolitical crap this time. Go SpaceX….and Blue Origin and anyone else with deep enough pockets to try to save the human species!
> This may in itself be one big assumption. Being optimistic or pessimistic is but an arbitrary judgement subject to personal interpretation driven by personal or collective prejudices influenced by among other things the prevailing mores, knowledge & will of the time period it is made.
Aren't you guilty of, won't you be guilty of committing the very same "mistake" (i.e. as in "Just because our species has a tenancy to try to kill ourselves off, doesn't mean all other species are as ill-tempered." – see below) you say we are supposedly all guilty of? Who is to say, what certainty is there that advanced civilizations must necessarily become multi-planet, multi-galaxy species? Is not such a belief in itself, a "big assumption"? A "big assumption" based on the experience of but only one "advanced" species and one planet (i.e. humanity & Planet Earth) only?
> It doesn't imply that other species aren't radically different in their tendencies to us either. Or does it?
> This will only be true provided these civilizations do get beyond the level providing for their own substenance i.e. survival & are capable of higher thought processes. How many such species let alone multicellular species there are in this universe remains a big unknown.
> Just because we survived the last Cold War because it didn't turn hot doesn't mean that we will survive the next one. Neither does it or will it be any an assurance or should we take comfort in it that the next Cold War (which may already be upon us) won't tuned into a Hot War. It should also serves not in offering any a definite guarantee that other "advanced" multicellular species will survive their first fraticidal conflict cold or hot notwithstanding.
Determining the lifetime of a civilization is intrinsically fraught with human bias. Basically, we just don't know how long an alien technological civilization typically lasts, and we don't have any data upon which to provide an estimate. I have always found the Drake equation interesting philosophically but technically pointless. Insufficient data leads to bad science.
Next PostNext Astronomy Cast now available via Amazon's Alexa!


It took me some time to find reviews for the Iberostar Torviscas Playa - because it's in Costa Adeje, not Playa de Las Americas !!!
Recommended by a relative and we were well pleased by the standard of accommodation and meals etc. - no real big gripes at all.
The bar prices were on the expensive side - we checked out other adjacent hotels to confirm this, but as we did most of our evening drinking in nearby bars this did not bother use too much.
The circular pool is heated, not something I've come across before outdoors, and it is the same depth throughout, so an adult can stand up anywhere - very pleasant to swim, or even just lounge around in.
I wasn't too happy at the thought of 20 Euros per week for Wi-Fi access, that should be free to residents, but you can check your email etc. at the many local bars who offer Wi-Fi free.
Our 3rd stay at this hotel, our first being 2007 as a couple then 2010 as a 1st family holiday and again this year as a family.
After a fab holiday in 2007 at this hotel we knew we would become regular visitors! We found the hotel yet again spotless. The pool area is well looked after too, plenty of loungers and parasols. Food was excellent, plenty of choice even for our fussy 2 year old. Always hot, fresh and enjoyable.
The location is brilliant just out of the back gate is the beach, McDonald's, bars restaurants, shops giving you plenty to do and not far away from the hotel itself.
The staff are excellent, warm and welcoming from reception and animation team, to waiting and bar staff to the maids, all very polite and always greet you with a "hola" We recognised staff from 2007 during our visit in 2010 and they were there again this year.
arrived on4/6/2010 just in time for dinner,after which we did the usual explore around the hotel and were very impressed with the public rooms and the staff in situ.our room 514 was ok except for quite a few cracked tiles which could have been dangerous we were immediatley offered a move to 510 better but toilet pan was not stable.
our rooms were over looking the road but this was not a problem this resort is ok but not the prettiest we had never seen so many sun loungers so you could always get one at any time.all in all the hotel i would recommend for any type of holiday you fancy.
great hotel, food excellent. would definately go back. hotel very clean with large pool area. bar staff extremely good and friendly.
This was our 2nd visit to this hotel the 1st being 2 years ago.
The staff, food and cleanliness of the hotel cant be faulted even for a fussy eater like myself.
The pool area was spacious and we never struggled to get sunbeds and there was none of the 8am mad dash that seemed to be a stable of reviews from last year.
My only small gripe is that the room, although spacious and clean, didnt have enough wardrobe and draw space to really cover all 3 of us effectively and the aircon could do with being a little stronger as even with it being left on all day the room didnt cool down that much.
We never saw any of the evening entertainment and although we never joined in with any of the daytime activities they were plentiful and everyone seemed to be enjoying themselves.
The in house entertainment staff really go out of their way to make your holiday they are always fun and friendly ready to have a chat and a laugh and although they asked us if we wanted to join in every activity when we declined they were happy to let us be (with the occasional jokey remark about how lazy we were hee hee.
The hotel is located a 2 minute walk from the beach with plenty of bars and shops around and yet quiet enough not to be disturbed late at night.
I will definately be returning to this hotel in the future.
Stayed at this hotel about seven years ago and found that not much had changed in that time.The location is excellent and the pool area second to none,Ample sun beds but like many places some are in ideal positions and these are sort after by those who are prepared to get up early.
The food selection had improved and was well presented.No one could compain that they were not catered for.
Staff were helpfull and polite.Booking in was painless.
The rooms were clean. Ok the hotel is getting old and maybe ready for an update but the bed was comfortable.A plus for me was they had removed the mini bar but left the fridge so you could store your water etc.
The entertainment had improved and the people providing this worked hard to keep everyone happy.
One major improvement is the main road outside which has been altered to a one way system thus removing most of the traffic noise.
I would reccomend this hotel to anyone but it is aimed at older people in my opinion.
This hotel was FABULOUS, it was very clean and tidy the staff were very friendly and always said hello (well oula).The meals were very good and the entertainment was excellent, my daughter(11) enjoyed them as well. There was also a kids disco on from halfpast eight until nine o'clock.The pool is very clean but beware the floor gets hot so wear flip flops down to the pool or run ! This hotel is in the ideal spot about a two minute walk to the beach and restaurants.
we would definitely recommend this hotel and would really like to return !!!!!
On arrival at the hotel we were offered a complimentry drink and quickly booked into the hotel and shown to our rooms. The rooms were clean and spacious and the hotel in general was of good appearance and clean.
The food was excellent with plenty of choice especially for the little one and the tables were cleared quickly so there was always plenty of tables.
All the staff were very friendly and went out of there way to help you. The daytime entertainment was very good but the night time entertainment a little bland. The only negative point about this hotel was the race for sunbeds in the morning. People were queing up from 7.15am for the doors to open at 8.00am and then it was see who could sprint the fastest to get their selected sunbeds. There were usually sunbeds left over until about 8.30am but there would be no parasols left.
All in all this was an excellent hotel and would recommend it.
Hotel in very good position on front, however there are steps down to the beach and the front which are hard work on the way back.pool area very nice but every morning was horrendous getting up at 7.30 for the doors to open at 8 for beds round the pool.


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Sharon's Work Experience: 30 Years in Federal Employee, 18 Years in Project Management Leadership, 10 Years as a Business Owner, 10 Years as a Motivational Speaker, and Year as an Author!
Enjoy Our 2021 Leading Within Promo Video (Click Here)
Background on how Sharon got started: Ten (10) years ago (2008), Sharon Parker came to New Orleans and met a close friend named, Barbara S. Talley. Never in a thousand years did Sharon expect to follow in the entrepreneurial/motivational speaker's footsteps.
Faith would have it that Sharon would return back to New Orleans 2018 to developer the great news to Federal employees all over the Country that she did it, found her entrepreneurial passion. Yes, on August 16, 2018, Sharon launched her new workshop "Leading Within Through Project Management" #LWTPM.
After 18 years of applying Project Management, knowledge, skills, technique, and processes not only to her career but in her personal life as well the "Leading Within Through PM, LLC" is born. Sharon contributes eighteen (18) years of Project Management training inspiring her to lead within.
It only took four (4) decades for Sharon to discover her true passion. She had only one obstacle to cross, she had to overcome, which was speaking in front of a large crowd. Thanks to Barbara S. Talley who sponsored Sharon as a member of the Capital Speaking Club in Bethesda, Maryland, Sharon overcame her fear of speaking and knock the ball out of the park in New Orleans. Sharon has been a member of Capital Speaking Club for over (5) years.
Don't forget Sharon is an Introvert to think to the Myer's Briggs Assessment, she now knows her preferred communication style and the style of Extrovert.
Sharon wanted to inspire and motivate the next level of leading within entrepreneurial, especially women, to overcome their leadership fears and jump those hurtles to work into their true leadership style...more will be shared in your workshop...book today: click here
Sharon Parker is known as a Leading Within Strategist. In addition to this title, she is many things to many people, a legacy seeker, a passionate and purposed teacher, and a heart-led fact seeker.
But really ... she is just a woman on a mission to capture the stories of notable individuals who are heroes here in America and abroad —the celebrated and unsung—Sharon aim to share these individuals with the world, 365 days a year.
When Sharon, passionately know as Sharon Lee left her hometown of Calvert County, Maryland , as a young woman to chase her dreams, Sharon had no idea where that road would lead. She never imagined that the journey would take her to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) as a Federal Public Servant for 30 years, which birthed her passion to serve her community, and to the President for Remembering Our Ancestors Synergistic Association, (ROASA), Inc., Chapter President for Maryland's American Mothers, Inc., Chapter President for the Robert C. Weaver Chapter at HUD, former Commissioner for the Maryland Commission on African-American History and Culture (MCAAHC), where she served from 2012-2015. Ultimately, Sharon would find herself in an intimate circle of other Afrocentric minds, seeking opportunities to support the entrepreneurial ventures of friends and the community at large. Sharon has been blessed to serve as a volunteer for the National Museum of African American History and Culture.
She came … for comradery —instead she discovered her destiny. That night, a spark of inspiration led to the creation of Remembering Our Ancestors Synergistic Association (ROASA), Inc., which was Sharon's first major project. and the rest, shall we say, is history.
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