Think of Japan fashion and what springs to mind? Is it the traditional kimono with its intricate prints or perhaps it is the ultra-modern style seen on the streets of the uber-cool Harajuku district? Or perhaps it is both? A delicious fusion of tradition and contemporary style that celebrates heritage and innovation.
Japanese fashion designer Jun Nakamura is one of the inspirational new creatives spearheading this new fashion revolution. His innovative re-interpretation of the Japanese traditional technique of Shibori is quickly garnering acclaim and awareness.
Jun is creating his designs alongside studying for his MA in Fashion Design Womenswear at Istituto Marangoni London. Having studied fashion design in Japan, he wanted to use some of traditional techniques used in kimono making in a new and innovative way.
Jun's family own a kimono company back in Japan and Jun grew up learning the traditional techniques associated with the industry. Despite best endeavours, sadly both the kimono and the Shibori industry are showing signs of deterioration. He believes that the degeneration of both traditional industries can largely be attributed not only to decreasing demand but also that the previous makers are retiring from the industry and their specialist skills are being lost without the new generation of artisans to pass it on to.
it is increasingly likely that these traditional skills will be lost, so it has never been more important to for people like Jun to breathe new life into one of Japan's most traditional techniques of Shibori and make it relevant for this generation and generations to come.
"Artisans bind fabrics by thread before dyeing those, the thread prevents fabrics from being dyed and particular patterns appear depending on how they have been bound.
The demand for Shibori is decreasing, but overall it remains popular in Japan but predominately on kimonos and on some fashion accessories such as wallets. Typically, these are not brought by the Japanese community, but by tourists in souvenir shops in the likes of the Kyoto prefecture.
One of the main issues is that smaller companies can't afford to hire and train young people as an artisan from the beginning. The proportion of these goods in the companies has been gradually increasing. However, there is a significant requirement to create more demand in order to employ and train young artisans.
Jun is clearly a visionary and aspires to use the traditional Shibori handiwork in an innovative way.
Jun is inspired by abstract art and cites the likes of David Kim Whittaker's art pieces and Pablo Picasso's 'The Sculptor' as key influences on his work. Jun uses textiles which have quite unique characteristics due to the Shibori process. His aim is to create a unique shape using a 3D structure that can be applied to printed fabrics which are not typically related to the traditional technique of Shibori.
Fusing tradition and modern aesthetics are of the utmost importance to Jun and this remains the ethos behind his work.
Jun's experimental contribution to the new wave of Shibori techniques is swiftly garnering attention and he has been invited to participate in the likes of Mittelmoda 25th Edition in Italy and Fashion Scout in 2018. He has also recently exhibited at Poliform UK too.
Sustainability is a consideration for Jun who is always looking for ways to utilise recycled materials where possible. He believes that developing a design cycle of including those second-hand garments of the brand into following seasons' design could be an interesting development and could help reduce the 'throwaway' culture which is prevalent in the UK market.


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We apologize to our loyal readers
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By John W. HenryJanuary 5, 2016, 6:20 p.m.
The Globe's responsibility to this community is to bring it the news. I would like to share some news now about why we have failed to meet this objective for many readers over the past 10 days, how we are working to fix the problems, and a bit about the root causes.
First, I want to personally apologize to every Boston Globe subscriber who has been inconvenienced. We recognize that you depend on us, and that we've let you down. We're working around the clock on a variety of fronts to solve this. To that end, I also want to thank everyone at the Globe who pitched in to get some 20,000 Sunday papers delivered last weekend.
Getting a daily newspaper to your front door is a complicated exercise in logistics — this is something the Globe has been innovating in for more than 150 years. Our region is full of old houses, curvy roads, and hidden cul-de-sacs. It takes resources, people, and technology to bring a paper from our presses to you every day. That last mile relies on a team of dedicated delivery professionals who know just the spot where you like your paper placed, what your house looks like, the name of your dog.
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I don't think any of us who receive our daily newspapers think enough about what servicing such a route entails. One single person generally takes responsibility to see that our papers — even amid record snowfall — are delivered (frequently in the dark) 365 days a year. 365 nights really. Your carrier is, in fact, often the public face of our company.
The importance of this role is why, since joining the Globe, we have been determined to improve our delivery systems and customer service.
When I purchased the Globe two years ago, more than half the subscribers who were not renewing their subscriptions told us it was due to delivery service issues. Week after week, I reiterated that fixing this had to be one of our highest priorities. Before I arrived, the Globe had moved away from operating its own delivery service. That was a mistake.
Instead, the Globe instituted a somewhat expensive plan to try to remedy the reported problems. By the beginning of my second year it was apparent the service was not improving. So we began to look for an alternative delivery service.
We settled on ACI Media Group, generally recognized as the best in the business. The firm's first bid not only contained the service improvements we were looking for but was substantially cheaper — more in line with other regions in the United States. We thought we'd found what we were looking for, but this overnight transition was much harder than anyone anticipated.
Until Globe staffers embarked on an effort to save more than 20,000 subscribers from missing their Sunday paper, we had underestimated what it would take to make this change. People want their paper every day in a particular place at a particular time. It might be 6 inches to the right of the first step.
One thing we did not underestimate, however, is the importance of routing. The new company initially used software that simply could not do the job. The routes that software plotted were so circuitous and inefficient that newly hired drivers quit after only one or two days — our staff ultimately volunteered to jump in to help. ACI has already begun the process to replace that software.
So where do we stand at this point? We have worked with both ACI and our former distributor to reestablish service in the fastest possible way by dividing the entire region between them. The firms are at this moment working together to manage routes and will have a roughly equivalent number of newspapers to deliver over the next three years. While it has been very painful to have daily service interrupted, I do believe this hurdle will ultimately reward everyone because there will be two newspaper distribution firms in the region.
With only one service provider in any industry, often services and costs are far from ideal for customers. In this case the customers are The Boston Globe, The Boston Herald, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and other newspapers. These papers will now have competitive services to choose from that will decrease costs and improve service.
Subscription revenue is going to be the primary source of revenue in the future for newspapers. It will make or break journalism in this country as we know it. That's what makes this past week so frustrating. Many of the people who support journalism in this region have been slapped in the face simply trying to get their daily newspaper. Some will give up on us as a result.
I've also seen, however, a New England spirit here in the past 15 years of steely resolve no matter the wait. I hope you will have the patience now to bear with us as we iron out this integral part of our business.
John W. Henry is the publisher of The Boston Globe.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Time for a well deserved drink.
Winners of the singing competition. Shirts optional.
Oh what a night!! Despite the threat of heavy rain for the evening many turned out to trip the light fantastic on the sprung floor of the Pigeon Bay Community Hall. All ages were represented and had a great time mingling together on and off the dance floor. The DJ played many old hits from some classic vinyls. It was obvious that many op shops had been raided and everyone had gotten into the spirit of the night. The supper was to die for and I doubt anyone went home hungry afterwards. Many thanks must go to Brenda Graham for her superb organisation of the Op Shop Ball. She had an idea and ran with it right to the end and it was well worth the effort. Enjoy the photos.
Notice of help required for Matariki March 29th.
HELP HELP HELP. If you can help us with our biggest event of the year, The Matariki Race, please contact Angela, ph 03 358 9556 or email bob_n@clear.net.nz.
The big boats from Lyttleton sail to our club on Saturday 29th March. We provide hospitality for the afternoon, evening and Sunday morning. More details about the event will be posted at a later date. But it will be all hands on deck for the weekend and many hands make light work 🙂 Looking forward to hearing from you all.
Roll Up, Roll Up. Life Member's Day and Op Shop Ball, March 15th.
Calling all Life Members, members, supporters and friends of the PBBC. Please join us for our Life Members Day, Saturday March 15th, to help celebrate these wonderful people who have contributed so much to our club over the 52 years we have been running. Life Members have been and some still are part of the backbone to PBBC. Their support and contributions over the years have been greatly appreciated by current members and users of the club. So lets have a day of sailing and a ball to help mark this day. Oops and of course an afternoon tea as well (members please bring a plate).
As I write this we are having a "once in 50 years" weather event at the beginning of autumn. Hmm, feels like we have skipped autumn and rushed into winter! I hope that anyone who has a boat in Lyttleton has not suffered too badly. We need you guys for Matariki! More on that in another post.
The Canterbury Paper Tigers recently held their champs at the bay. They had a great turnout of 9 cats. Six of them were visitors to the club with three of them here at PBBC for the first time. The results of that weekend were Bob Nicholls coming in 1st place and Harry Dawber close behind in 2nd place. Well done guys and we hope to see you all back again.
Ya Want To Have a BALL?
How about that? The PBBC certainly hopes you can make it. Never been to an op shop? Well now is your chance to do so. And guess what? The clothes are real cheap in those shops so you can probably afford a few outfits and change often during the night. Trust me stranger things have happened in that hall over the years! Tickets are limited so you had better get hold of Brenda real fast. And she is one quick chick so don't dilly dally or you will miss out on what could be (most probably will be) the biggest night of the year for the bay.
In case you haven't realised this ball coincides with Life Member's Day. It's a double whammy! Sail and play in one day! Who could ask for anything more?
Although not much has been seen from the public side of the site, under the hood some big changes have been made. The site has been made more secure and some enhancements have been put in place. With the help of our hosting service provider Kiwihosting Ltd.
We are now using Cloud Flare for added security. If you're not sure what it is, google it and you'll learn how it works. Since this became active in mid-December it has worked very well. I can monitor the site's activity very well by logging in to my Cloud Flare account and checking the PBBC site's Analytics.
You may be interested to know that on the 26th December we had some major hacker attempts (CoudFlare calls them Threats) to compromise the site. Why would they? They are not after PBBC data, they are after the use of the site to gain access to other sites and/or send spam email. Effectively dealt with!
With the bustle of Christmas and the silly season over, I hope to be able to spend more time on the public side of the site.
We apologise! Hackers got in and deleted our site. The admin staff are working to bring it back. We hope to have a basic site functioning again soon.


Just before you download the application form ... Please read our terms and conditions.
Payment is regarded as acceptance of the booking conditions.
Any participant whose conduct is deemed by the camp manager to be detrimental to the best interest of the programme will be dismissed - no refund will be made. Children must comply with all safety requests by their teachers. Failure to comply will result in the child being removed from the activity.
Cancellations: Summer and Easter Camps are subject to forfeiture of a booking deposit of €20 per child (if full payment is made the balance of the fee will be refunded). Deposits are non-refundable and places are non- transferable.
iPad Camps – Cancellations made up to 14 days before the camp commences will receive a 50% refund. No refund will be given within 14 days of the camp.
The discount for booking more than one child only applies to siblings in the same family.
The programme will operate to the highest safety standards; we shall not be responsible for any illness, death or accident unless occasioned by the proven negligence on the part of the Camp Directors or their employees. Please note that active participation in the use of the equipment in particular inflatable equipment, mobile climbing wall, spider climbing tower and slide & air jumper carries a risk and understand that Let's Go! operate the activities with health and safety key to the operation of these events. Let's Go! Summer Schools Ltd have full public liability cover for all activities undertaken. Personal Accident Insurance against injury, accident, or loss whilst on camp is the responsibility of the client.
Let's Go! accepts no responsibility for items lost/stolen or damaged on the premises. We recommend that children leave any valuables at home.
We do not return lost property so make sure when leaving that you bring everything with you.
We at Let's Go! Summer Schools Ltd. reserve the right to modify our progamme of activities in the event of unforseen circumstances.
Photographs and video footage may be taken for promotional reasons.
Permission is granted to seek medical treatment in the event of an accident.
All participants must be 5 years or older and be attending primary school.


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1.1.	Analysis of Major Trends in Migration Flows in Europe
In 2014, during the International Migrants Day, Eurostat (EU Office for statistics) indicated that fewer than 7% (about 35 million people) of people living in EU member states were foreign nationals; 60% of them were non-EU citizens.
According to Eurostat data, migration is influenced by a combination of economic, political and social factors in the migrant's country of origin (causes of departure) or in the country of destination (attraction effects).
Historically, the relative economic prosperity and political stability of the European Union seem to have had a major effect of attraction on immigrants.
Indeed, since the years 50, Europe has been through several great migration flows: migrations for employment and the reconstruction of Europe just after the war, the economic crisis in the mid 70's (following the hydrocarbon price increase in 1973), the increasing flows of refugees, asylum seekers and ethnic minorities from the late 80's (following regional conflicts such as the civil war in former Yugoslavia, the breaking up of the Soviet Union and the opening of borders) and finally the return of migrations for employment with a "preference" for skilled workers and temporary migrations from the 90's.
The current refugee crisis, started in 2010, is the latest great migration flow. It intensified in 2015-2016 with a massive arrival of populations. In the last two years, over two million refugees and migrants arrived in the EU, most of them fleeing an endemic conflict (Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan).
This migration pressure is unprecedented. It is the largest population exodus since the second World War. Just in 2016, EU member states grated protection to over 700,000 asylum seekers (according to Eurostat).
A prospective analysis conducted by ACF International (Action Against Hunger) and IRIS (Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques) in June 2016, established four scenarios for the evolution of the migration crisis within the following two years: European disagreement (no integral and coordinated response, making the EU unpredictable and relatively inefficient), Fortress Europe (coordinated approach, but only through a protectionist agenda), Opening the floodgates (countries bordering crises and transit countries can no longer contain migration flows), A new agreement (solidary approach, durable solutions, collaboration in first asylum countries and better migrant management).
The same report specifies that, while the majority of migrants arriving in Europe flee a permanent conflict, the underlying causes of their movements are identical to those of other migrants to Europe: insecurity caused by an armed intervention of foreign agents, governments' inability to provide minimal economic development, natural disasters intensified by lack of resilience, and political repression and authoritarianism.
Eurostat newsreleaseForeign citizens living in EU members states in 2014
Migration and migrant population statisticsEU statistics on international migration, population stocks of national and non-national citizens and data relating to the acquisition of citizenship – March 2017
The economic and social aspects of migrationChanges and Challenges: Europe and migrations from 1950 to present – January 2003
Eurostat newsreleaseAsylum decisions in the EU in 2016
Responding to the Migrant Crisis: Europe at a JunctureThis report describes the main driving forces of the crisis and presents four possible scenarios of how the situation will involve by 2018
DG Migration and Home AffairsThis Commission department is responsible for EU policy on migration and home affairs.


Abstract: We derive a formula giving thefrequency with which random drift shifts a population betweenalternativeequilibria. This formula is valid when such shifts are rare (Ns >> 1), and applies over a wide range of mutation rates. When the number of mutations entering the population is low (4Nμ << 1), the rate of stochastic shifts reduces to the product ofthe mutation rate and the probability of fixation of a single mutation. However, when many mutations enter the population in each generation (4Nμ >> 1), the rate is higher than would be expected if mutations were established independently, and converges to that given by a gaussian approximation. We apply recent results on bistable systems to extend this formula to the general multidimensional case. This gives an explicit expression for thefrequencyof stochastic shifts, which depends only on theequilibrium probability distribution near the saddle point separating thealternative stable states. The plausibility of theories of speciation through random drift are discussed in the light of these results.


Burnt mound HY 7465 4571 An emergency excavation was carried out in February 2005 of a suspected burial monument, which was exposed by storms on the coast by Meur. Excavation revealed the site to be a burnt mound with surviving structural components, including a central tank within a space defined by orthostats, another compartment of orthostats, and a corbelled water cistern with an outflow drain, as well as the stony debris forming the mound itself.
HY 74733 45810 A limited excavation was carried out, 3–10 September 2013, on a mound at the N end of the grounds of Meur as part of ongoing community archaeological training by Sanday Archaeology Group. The site was selected as it is threatened by coastal erosion, which has already revealed charcoal and shell-rich midden deposits on the W side of the mound. It is located c50m N of the Meur burnt mound (HY74NW 9).
A 6 x 4m trench was excavated on the summit of the mound, revealing a suite of features. This included a collapsed wall or stone bank, edge-set slabs, a cobbled area and a shallow ditch infilled with midden-rich material. Preliminary findings indicate these features overly earlier midden deposits. Finds included prehistoric pottery fragments.
HY 74650 45710 The SCAPE Trust and local volunteers reexcavated a complex Bronze Age burnt mound now situated on the beach at Meur, dismantled the remains and reconstructed it at the new Sanday Heritage Centre. This community project was undertaken, 30 June – 16 July 2014, and formed part of the SCAPE Trusts Scotland's Coastal Heritage at Risk Project.
dark soils. Once it was clear that the site was that of a burnt mound not a burial, the excavation characterised, recorded and sampled the remains before reburying them. Three radiocarbon dates on bone in fill deposits indicate that the mound was used between 1120 and 420 BC.
In 2013, residents of Sanday, concerned about the continuing damage to the site from winter storms, proposed a community project to re-excavate the site in order to dismantle and relocate it from its perilous location on the beach to the new Heritage Centre, where it would create an interesting visitor attraction.
wall. Beneath the stone tank the top of an earlier (possibly) corbelled structure was revealed. This is yet to be excavated. A small number of finds were recovered including pottery, animal bone, pumice and struck stone. A comprehensive environmental sampling strategy was implemented, including sampling to establish an age model for the site.


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You are here: Home > MMA Tips > The Vanilla Gorilla strikes again at UFC Long Island
The Vanilla Gorilla strikes again at UFC Long Island
Eric Roberts 2017-07-18 in MMA Tips
UFC on FOX 25 Prelims – Preview and Betting Tips
Lyman Good vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
UFC on FOX 25 Prelims – UFC Welterweight Bout
Lyman Good, a 12-year veteran of the sport, finally made his way to the UFC two years ago when he battled Andrew Craig at UFC Fight Night 71. Good looked better than good in his debut and knocked Craig down with a brutal right hand. Lyman's dream start in the UFC quickly lost all momentum when he was injured before a fight with Omari Akhmedov and had to withdraw. Good was again forced to withdraw from a fight at UFC 205 in December 2016 when he tested positive for banned substances, and USADA handed him a six-month suspension.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos entered the UFC in May 2015 when he met Nicolas Dalby who was 13-0 at the time. Dos Santos lost his debut by way of a split decision but has since gone on to win two consecutive fights in the UFC with an impressive knockout victory against Omari Akhmedov and a decision victory against the veteran Keita Nakamura.
Lyman Good is a talented striker who likes to stand in the pocket and trade. He moves his head just enough to make his opponent miss before returning hard counter strikes to the face. This was the same movement that allowed him to deliver a finishing blow on Andrew Craig.
This style of fighting works extremely well against someone who plants their feet and engages in a somewhat predictable striking competition with Good. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos isn't your typical striker, though. He moves through different angles and approaches his opponent from a range of different perspectives. He's also patient enough not to give Lyman Good any critical openings.
Dos Santos has a dangerous submission game. He's a black belt under Cristiano Marcello and threatens with submissions. While both fighters pack hard leg kicks in their arsenal, Dos Santos' kicks are more damaging.
Prediction and Betting Strategy
Dos Santos has more ways to win, and I feel comfortable predicting Dos Santos to win this one via decision. Patient and accurate striking combined with his abilities on the ground will see him be too much of a threat for Lyman Good in this fight.
Rafael Natal vs. Eryk Anders
UFC on FOX 25 Prelims – UFC Middleweight Bout
Rafael Natal is yet another jiu-jitsu black belt that has fallen in love with striking. Natal has recently elected to strike with his opponents rather than battling them at the positions in which he has the significant advantages, predominantly on the mat. Natal enters this fight on a two-fight losing streak after losing to Robert Whittaker and Tim Boetsch.
Eryk Anders gets the call to fight Rafael Natal on very short notice. Anders announced that he would be stepping in to replace Alessio Di Chirico at UFC on FOX 25 just last week. Anders is a former Alabama linebacker who's strength and power have taken him all the way to becoming a Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight champion.
Rafael Natal is going to have a massive advantage if this fight gets to the floor. However, that's all going to depend on whether Natal chooses to chase the takedown or if he stands toe-to-toe with Anders.
Underestimating Anders could lead to a world of troubles for the Brazilian considering that Anders packs some brute strength. Anders has an enormous left hand that, if it connects, could stun Rafael Natal.
We'll wait and see what the bookmakers think of this fight. With Anders entering on late notice, Natal may be booked as a heavy favourite.
I predict a decision victory for Rafael Natal, but we may end up betting on Eryk Anders if the value is right.
Ryan LaFlare vs. Alex Oliveira
Ryan LaFlare's greatest battle in the past two years has been his health. His fight with Roan Carneiro in February this year was the first time he had been in the cage for over 14 months. Ryan LaFlare's only loss through his professional mixed martial arts career came as a unanimous decision loss against jiu-jitsu master Demian Maia in March 2015.
Alex Oliveira has been storming through the UFC welterweight division since losing to Donald Cerrone back in February 2016. He picked up wins against James Moontasri and Will Brooks before a satisfying submission finish of Tim Means after the two fought out a no contest four months before their second bout at UFC Fight Night 106.
It's hard to doubt Alex Oliveira anymore. He was being beaten by Tim Means in their first matchup before illegal strikes called an end to the contest. But, just four months later he had turned it all around and completely dominated Tim Means for two rounds before submitting him. Oliveira is especially dangerous in the clinch position, and he is always looking for a submission.
Ryan LaFlare is well-rounded and has been a test for everybody that has stepped inside the cage with him. His stand up game is respectable, but he also has an impressive offensive wrestling game. Alex Oliveira is going to need to be switched on for every moment that LaFlare stands in front of him.
For some reason, I can see this ending in classic Alex Oliveira style. Ryan LaFlare is likely to control most of the exchanges and be the better fighter throughout, but all it takes is one small moment for Oliveira to sneak a submission victory. LaFlare's tendency to wrestle will also mean that Oliveira will be presented with an increased number of opportunities to find the submission.
Alex Oliveira to win by submission
Damian Grabowski vs. Chase Sherman
UFC on FOX 25 Prelims – UFC Heavyweight Bout
Damian Grabowski enters this fight with Chase Sherman after being knocked out by Anthony Hamilton in just fourteen seconds at UFC 201. It marked the second straight defeat for Grabowski in the same number of fights in the UFC, and he finds himself in a very similar position to what Chase Sherman was in just one fight ago.
'The Vanilla Gorilla' Chase Sherman has recently been more waves in the MMA scene for his work outside the cage rather than inside. If you're active on Twitter and follow anything related to mixed martial arts, I'm almost certain you'd have seen Chase Sherman on there by now. Chase started his UFC career with two-straight defeats but then bounced back in tremendous style with a knockout win over Rashad Coulter at UFC 211.
Chase Sherman moves quite well for a heavyweight. He's light on his feet and moves around just enough before setting up his low and teep kicks. Sherman is also super explosive when trading inside the pocket with an opponent and can rip two or three fast punches to the body and head with speed. He still leaves his chin exposed, especially when moving backwards so there is a huge chance that Grabowski could connect and finish the fight that way.
Grabowski is an high-level grappler with some slick jiu-jitsu skills. The problem is that he hasn't been able to get this one down to the mat to start working his desired game plan against any of his opponents recently. Chase Sherman moves too well for Grabowski to sneak in and find a takedown.ee
Damian Grabowski has been knocked out by Marcin Tybura, Derrick Lewis and Anthony Hamilton before entering this fight. I believe that Chase Sherman will also find himself on this list of people to finish Grabowski by the end of UFC on FOX 25.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by decision
Sunday 23rd July – 07:30 pm (ET) / 11:30pm GMT
Odds: 10/3 4.33 +333 3.33 3.33 -0.30 – SkyBet
Rafael Natal by decision
Odds: 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29 – BetVictor
Alex Oliveira by submission
Odds: 17/2 9.50 +850 8.50 8.50 -0.12 – Paddy Power
Chase Sherman by to win in Round One
Odds: 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44 – Coral
UFC on FOX 25
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What Does a 20% Savings Rate Get You?
Take a look at this hypothetical lawyer and his finances to see what a 20% savings rate really means to the average lawyer.
Many lawyers are rightly confused about how much money they should be saving towards retirement each year. Knowing that almost all of us had a late start in earning money, there's a general sense among the lawyers I talk to that we should be doing more. Any time I raise the topic, I'm almost routinely met by a response of "I'm not saving enough, am I?".
Unfortunately, simply believing that you're not saving enough and wanting to "save more" isn't a solid plan for righting the ship."Saving more" isn't an actionable goal. How will you know when you've reached it? Nor does walking around feeling like you're not saving enough do much except make you depressed.
What we all fail to recognize is that for better or worse we're following a course right now, whether that's a mapped out specific plan to a certain goal or a ship bobbing on the ocean subject to the currents.
Therefore, I thought it'd be helpful to sketch out a few charts showing a hypothetical lawyer saving at hypothetical rates so we could see how long this lawyer will need to work in order to save for retirement.
At the end of the day, saving a certain percentage of your income means you'll have to work a fixed number of years. With some real numbers we can figure out what all this gets you. If you've wanted to know what saving 20% of your income will get you in life, look no further.
Let's assume our lawyer is a hypothetical 30-year-old with an income of $100,000 and a desired income in retirement of $100,000 as well. While it's highly unlikely that any lawyer will need to replace their current income in retirement, it simplifies the math and calculations a bit to assume that this lawyer will also want an income of $100,000 in retirement.
Remember that the numbers below are retirement savings, so don't take into consideration other savings goals and payment obligations such as paying off student loans, saving up for a down payment and paying off a mortgage. All of those will need to be in addition to whatever you're able to save for retirement. Depressing? Yes. But that's how this works. You actually need to save up for your retirement, just like you'd save up for a down payment.
How Many Years Do You Have To Work?
Rather than making these calculations to see how much cash you'll end up with, why not turn the question on its head to see long you'll have to work in order to be able to retire? I find that more relevant. At what point in time can you stop working for money. Sure, you might keep working because you enjoy it, but here we're looking at the moment in time that you can quit working and completely replace your income with the returns from your nest egg indefinitely (i.e. you'll never need to work again for paid money).
Here's how long you'd have to work if you saved 5% of your income towards retirement. If you're okay with working 54.7 years from today, you're all set saving 5% towards retirement.
Here's how long you'd have to work if you saved 10% of your income towards retirement. Amazingly, this cuts out 11 years from your working career when you double your saving rate to 10%. Still, our hypothetical lawyer will be 73.4 after working for 43.4 years. How many people do you know that want to work until their early 70s?
Here's how long you'd have to work if you saved 15% of your income towards retirement. Our hypothetical lawyer would be 66.7 years old. This isn't an early retirement by any stretch but perhaps the first reasonable number so far. Certainly many people do work into their mid-60s. If you plan to do that, you can get by with saving 15% of your income.
Here's how long you'd have to work if you saved 20% of your income towards retirement. At a 20% savings rate, you're now planning on retiring just shy of your 62nd birthday. I doubt many readers of this site will want to be retiring around then but now surely you see why 20% should be your floor savings rate! And if you can't reach it right now, you should set up the systems so you're saving as much as you can while you gradually increase your savings rate when you receive annual income increases, bonuses, etc.
Of course the above numbers and calculations are hypothetical. Much better if you can play with your own numbers to see how much you need to save. I've built two calculators since I started the blog that are helpful for running your own numbers.
The first is a simple compound interest calculator. Enter your retirement savings and how much you expect to contribute each year to get a sense of the size of your nest egg after a certain number of years.
The second is a slightly more advanced retirement calculator where you can figure out how many years you'll need to work before you can retire. Enter the same numbers (current retirement savings, planned annual savings, etc.) plus a few other assumptions to determine how many more working years you'll need to achieve the goal.
Don't forget that there's two things missing from the above calculations that will likely help you out in the long run. First, you are highly unlikely to need to replace your current income in retirement. Retired people spend less. Second, Social Security exists despite the misguided millennial mindset that it won't be around. As the most popular social program in history, it's likely to continue existing for the foreseeable future. The above numbers do not take into consideration the added income you'll receive from Social Security (if you don't know how much you'll receive, you can find your specific Social Security income here).
Let's talk about it. Are you on track to saving what you need for retirement?
How to Achieve Ruthless PrioritizationWhere Do REITs Fit in a Portfolio?
Two thoughts on What Does a 20% Savings Rate Get You?
I found myself more in want of a tool to look at the different savings rates out of morbid curiousity. At the moment most calculations have us between 4-5 years from done. However the great thing it illustrates is also the power of starting early. In theory I could not save another dime and in 19 years we'd still be done. Won't happen but it really illustrates the power of compounding.
This is a great calculator to get an easy estimate!
1) The 4% withdrawal rate analysis does not include taxes on the money being withdrawn.
2) With regard to social security, you are right to mention it – and I agree that it is unlikely that the program as a whole is going to go away. However, I would submit that there is a significant risk that means-testing will be introduced sometime in the next 40 years. Again – there are fewer and fewer savers – so demand/dependence is increasing – and there are fewer workers proportionally – so supply/funding is also decreasing. We can't predict the future, but we can look at how much additional income would be needed to be obtained from some source by the SSA – and what proportion of the current SSA-receivers would have to give up their benefits in order to fund the shortfall. Obviously this is speculative and depends on future events, but at $100K/year from investments, our hypothetical person would be well within the income range from which benefits might be taken if the shortfall is ameliorated by means-testing.
The "misguided millennials" that you mention might not be so misguided. If anything, the mindset that I see from millennials is misguided in the "overly trusting" sense with regard to the government. However, typically legislators do not do what is morally right – they do what gets votes – and then justify it however they like. So if more voters would like the "fat cats" earning $100K/year to be cut out ("hey, they don't need it anyway, am I right?"), then despite any previous promises to the contrary, our "pay as you go" SSA system will be changed.


text:
"A New Manhattan Project"
A Georgia oil company executive, Tex Pitfield (really, with a name like that, how do you NOT go into the oil business?!), has an op-ed in today's Atlanta Journal-Constitution calling for a massive national investment in alternatives to oil. And of course, high speed rail figures centrally in his argument:
History provides wonderful insight. Could we possibly reinvent the Eisenhower interstate system in the form of a nationwide high-speed rail system like they have in Europe? Needless to say, it would be powered by electricity or hydrogen, fossil fuel being a thing of the past. Not only do we create a huge beneficial infrastructure, but we put likely hundreds of thousands of people to work. The economy desperately needs jobs and a base to support them.
Way too many Californians have forgotten the role of massive infrastructure investment in the prosperity we enjoy today. Without the bay bridges built during the Depression, the State Water Project that was approved during a budget crisis in 1960, Eisenhower's foresighted (if ultimately flawed) Interstate Highway System, the construction of and paying the operating costs for schools and colleges - all those were acts of government that without which California would never have enjoyed the prosperity it did.
But those investments either need to be renewed, or in the case of transportation, remade. The era of cheap oil is over and instead of wasting money on trying to prolong our oil dependency - at a huge cost to our environment and therefore to our lives - why not do what our predecessors did, and invest in our future?
Those who attack the high speed rail project, those who say we should not build it, are saying we should do nothing at all to plan for our future. They offer no solution to high gas prices. No solution to the airline crisis. They have no plan for addressing climate change. They believe, against all evidence, that the status quo can continue indefinitely.
We need a new investment in our nation's infrastructure - to build a sustainable America. It begins here in California. We can show the rest of the country the way forward - or we can stick our heads in the sand and deny reality. The choice is ours and ours alone - if we don't make the right one this year, we're not going to get another chance to put it right. We've already squandered too many of those opportunities.
Posted by Robert Cruickshank at 9:57 PM
Labels: air travel, carbon emissions, climate, demand, economy, environment, HSR, jobs, peak oil, pollution, public support, sustainability, transportation
Clearly, some oil executives are more enlightened than others. However, switching wholesale from oil to hydrogen would be a huge mistake. Hydrogen has to be produced at great expense, either by steam reforming natural gas or, by electrolysis of fresh water.
Both processes require a lot of water, which is scarce virtually everywhere in the southern half of the continental United States. Steam reforming releases more CO2 per mile driven than running on gasoline. Electrolysis using renewable energy is prohibitively expensive, the alternative are coal (CO2 intensive) and nuclear, which even with a reprocessing chain produces highly radioactive toxic waste. No-one wants that in their back yard, which is why Yucca Mountain is still not operational.
In addition, hydrogen will embrittle normal ferritic steels and many other materials, so you have to use more exotic alloys for everything that is supposed to contain it. And, while hydrogen gas has the highest possible energy density by weight, it has one of the lowest by volume.
To get useful range out of a hydrogen-powered car, you have to compress it to 700 atmospheres, an energetically expensive process. The container has to be made from advanced composites using e.g. carbon fibers, whose production is also very energetically expensive. Recycling these materials is virtually impossible, you have to burn the spent parts.
The alternative is to chill the hydrogen down to 20 Kelvin, at which point it becomes liquid. This extreme refrigeration requires even more energy. To maintain the low temperature in the cryotank, fuel is continuously boiled off - even while the vehicle is parked. There are legitimate applications for this technology in rocketry and perhaps even for niche aviation applications.
However, running a train on hydrogen - a concept referred to as Hydrail - is IMHO completely nuts.
On lightly trafficked rights of way, cleaning up diesel exhaust is usually the best option - which is why the SMART project up in Marin/Sonoma calls for just that. Those trains will run on the same ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) already used for on-road trucks. Biodiesel blends of up to 20% can usually be tolerated without adverse technical effects - it's really just a question of economics. Note that biodiesel from soy beans is a fairly marginal proposition, in the context of an "energy Manhattan project" the feedstock should be switched to single-celled algae, preferably grown in salt water.
In a select few locations around the world, e.g. Iran, it may make sense to forgo the high capital investment in overhead catenaries and operate LNG trains instead, at least initially. The cryotechnology is similar to that for hydrogen but at over five times the absolute temperature, i.e. much cheaper. In addition, natural gas is a primary energy source rather than an energy carrier. In addition to fossil sources, there is renewable biomethane - essentially scrubbed biogas - which farmers in the EU are permitted to feed into the gas distribution grid. Natural gas burns very cleanly in modified diesel engines. However, LNG tanks do pose a greater safety hazard in an accident than diesel tanks do and there is still the issue of continuous boil-off.
For the more heavily trafficked alignments used in HSR, commuter rail and certain freight rail applications, electrification is far and away the best solution. The overhead catenaries do cost almost as much to construct as the tracks and, they can be a bit of an eyesore. However, in an age of ever-higher energy prices, it's better to bite the bullet up front than to accept high inflation on operating expenses.
Electrification also increases acceleration performance, because electric motors are lighter per unit of horsepower and, you don't have to lug a large fuel tank around. In addition to shorter line haul times for semi-express and local trains, electrification also increases line capacity and creates completely new routing options involving long tunnels.
For example, the California HSR project calls for a total of 80 lane-miles of tunnels, none longer than 6 miles. Thanks to the high power-to-weight ratio of off-the-shelf high speed train designs, gradients of up to 3.5% can be negotiated - compared to just 1% for freight tracks.
An ariticle in the Visalia Times has the headline "Bill could create rail department" and notes that as just amended "SB 53 would make the high-speed agency a division of the proposed new department."
SB-53 was lying around for over 9 months and just became active a few days ago on a motion by Torrico. How is this going to affect the bond measure and the CHSRA?
@anonymous @ 9:20 -
my reading of the tea leaves is that voters will like the idea of having CHSRA transition from a fairly independent planning body to one that is integrated with the state government. It will let them vote in favor of HSR with greater confidence.
Private investors, too, should be reassured by the prospect of increases supervision - though they may insist on a seat at the supervising table. They don't want the cash-strapped California state government to divert their investment into project that are only vaguely tied to HSR, just because they would otherwise go unfunded.
In the context of the state budget, $10 billion is serious money, There has to be due process in how big-ticket contracts are awarded and their implementation monitored. That's not a suggestion that CHSRA cannot be trusted but rather, one that a quality assurance process is valuable.
There will be specific issues with local authorities, e.g. on which grade crossings will be separated and which closed, on noise abatement, on disruption during construction etc. A department of the state of California is probably in a better position to handle those that than a small, independent planning body.
Finesse will be required in dealing with other rail operators, especially UPRR - especially since buying land from them in spite of their reluctance to sell is still worth pursuing. The alternative is a flurry of small land deals, a few of which could require exercising eminent domain - always a sensitive subject.
Also, freight rail operators are having to deal with ever more passenger rail operators, which complicates their own operations. A new department may be in a position to establish some standards for e.g. non-Amtrak trackage fees, priority handling etc.
Creating a formal body at the state level that will be staffed by bureaucrats with detailed knowledge of the legal, engineering and operational issues associated with rail services will be very valuable going forward. My guess is that no other state has anything comparable at the present time, their DOTs are very highway-centric.
My only suggestion is that the new body should be set up as a properly funded division of CalTrans rather than as a competitor to it. One reason is that certain rail projects require construction in the medians of existing freeways, e.g. the Marsh AB-Miramar section of the HSR network. Another is the many grade separation works required for HSR. There has to be co-ordination between the road and rail divisions on the impact HSR construction will have on nearby road traffic.
Thanks for that tip, anon. It's the first I've heard of the idea, and it's intriguing. A Department of Rail might be able to better coordinate passenger rail in California - the Caltrans Division of Rail has done great work, especially under Will Bronte, so perhaps a specific Department might be able to provide more services, more accountability, and have a stronger political position in Sacramento.
At the same time, it also runs the risk of ghettoizing rail funding and weakening rail's voice in Sacramento by cutting it out of the politically powerful Caltrans.
So, it's an idea worth considering, at the least. And I see now rafael has a comment on this, and I agree with his insightful-as-usual points in whole.
As to its impact on HSR or AB 3034 or even its political viability, I don't yet know, but I'll find out about that.
It might also be a good idea to ask FRA to send a liasion of their own to Sacramento. He/she should be integrated into the daily operations of the California state body tasked with implementing HSR.
Considering the scale of the project, it might be wise to create an interdisciplinary team within CalTrans, they already appear to have a matrix organization anyhow. However, it's important that HSR not be pressed entirely into the traditional public works mold - completion depends heavily on attracting private investment.
To those interested:
I have just received word that the Tuesday June 24th, meeting of the State Senate T&H committee will not hear AB-3034.
It will be reset -- word is that it will probably be on Thursday the 26th.
FLUBBER said...
i overheard someone on the lightrail in sacramento today. He said he worked for a company who partners with Caltrans, and that they were planning on designating the LA-SF a "corridor" much like the 3 other train corridors that Caltrans currently manages. It's not HSR, but that'd certainly be a step up, has anyone heard that too?
Brian, you sure that's not a reference to the Coast Daylight - the Caltrans-funded train that will run once a day from LA to SF (and vice versa)?
Should add that the Coast Daylight service is going to follow the coast route - via Salinas, SLO, and Santa Barbara.
The History Channel produced an episode of their "Mega Disasters" on the possibility of what they call an Oil Apocalypse.
Granted, they paint the absolute worst case scenario - structural global demand for oil actually outstripping supply as soon as 2012, leading to a global depression, long lines at the pumps (cp. 1973 and 1979) etc. While reality may well turn out to be more benign, the program highlights the value of investing in transportation systems powered by renewable electricity.
California's HSR is a candidate at the intercity scale. The risk of having California's transportation sector and economy continue to depend almost entirely on oil may well be greater than the risk of cost overruns in the implementation of the HSR project.
@Rafael
I was taken aback by your statement that construction for catenaries is almost as expensive as the tracks themselves.
CalTrain proposes to electrify their system for $600 million. This would be without HSR as I understand. If the catenaries are that expensive, it looks like a gross under estimation of the costs. What I don't know is that perhaps HSR catenaries may well be much more expensive than that for non-high speed rail.
Also, you comment that HSR requires 4 tracks at stations where express and local service are to be accommodated. In the CalTrain corridor, that would require then 6 tracks minimum, since CalTrain would still need its 2 tracks. At a talk the other day, a rail guy talked about HSR being able to use the CalTrain tracks for HSR at those points, but again that doesn't seem at all possible, especially with the UPRR putting up safety concerns about running freight near HSR much less on the same tracks.
@ anonymous -
perhaps I should clarify: afaik, electrification costs about the same as laying regular speed tracks at grade without grade separation against motor vehcles. It's quite possible the ratio is different for a high speed line, depending on what you count toward track construction. I was really just trying to express that electrification is seriously expensive - please don't take my ballpark estimate as gospel.
Also, keep in mind that Caltrain's catenaries will be over adjacent tracks and only suitable for speeds up to 90mph, with an option to support 125mph. The two operators will probably share masts and the connection to the utility grid, but we are talking about the electrification for four tracks in this ROW, not two. I'm not sure exactly how these separate electrification projects will be co-ordinated or funded. All I know is that CHSRA will have to pay Caltrain for the ROW, including use of the tunnel to Transbay Terminal.
As for tracks at the stations, Caltrain currently runs both local and "baby bullet" express trains. The latter don't travel any faster, they just bypass many of the smaller stations. HSR is planning to run express, semi-express and perhaps local trains of its own, though the semantics are different:
- HSR express trains would stop only at SF Transbay Terminal and San Jose Diridon.
- presumably, some HSR semi-express trains would also stop at Millbrae/SFO and others at Palo Alto/Redwood City. CHSRA still hasn't finalized where the south San Mateo county station will be, I'm not sure why. Perhaps it's because of space constraints at University Avenue in Palo Alto.
- HSR local trains would presumably stop at both Millbrae/SFO and Redwood City/Palo Alto.
Neither CHSRA nor Caltrain have published details on how the two services will co-exist along the peninsula. It's conceivable that the Caltrain's "baby bullet" will be canceled and that HSR local service will not be offered in the SF peninsula, but that's just speculation on my part. My understanding is that only the outer tracks will feature platforms at the stations, so four tracks is all that will be needed. I've not heard anybody suggest that there will be six adjacent tracks anywhere along the SF peninsula.
One issue that has been discussed is FRA approval. CHSRA is planning to use off-the-shelf lightweight high speed trainsets. These conform to international crash safety standards, which also call for advanced signaling, positive train control and other modern active safety systems that reinforce oen another.
By contrast, freight-centric thinking at FRA emphasizes passive safety, i.e. surviving a moderate-speed collision between two trains or a train and a heavy duty truck. As a result, FRA-compliant US passenger trains are essentially short freight trains - the freight in question being people. This approach wastes a lot of fuel and greatly increases wear-and-tear on both rolling stock and tracks, relative to the optimum for passenger service. For example, FRA mandated changes to the design of the Acela Express trainsets that led to a doubling of the weight. The upside is that that passenger train can be operated on tracks shared with mile-long freight trains without any changes to freight equipment or infrastructure.
Partly to support very high speeds and partly to avoid a repeat of the Acela Express fiasco, California's HSR trains would run on separate tracks virtually everywhere. Therefore, FRA is expected to grant CHSRA's waiver request for the use of non-compliant rolling stock (BART already has such a waiver).
Caltrain is now anxiously waiting for the outcome of the November election, because its own plans call for an important decision by the end of this year:
a) option A is to stick with FRA-compliant running gear, just electric rather than diesel. This could be used south of San Jose, where Caltrain rents tracks from UPRR. However, FRA would then demand strict time separation between high speed trains and Caltrain's own on at the stations. This could constrain traffic into Transbay Terminal as well as at Millbrae/SFO and Redwood City/Palo Alto.
b) option B is to choose off-the-shelf European electric multiple unit equipment (EMU) that complies with EN 12663/15227 rather than FRA rules. EMUs would be compatible with HSR trains on the same tracks. The company owns the San Jose to San Francisco portion of the ROW but under the terms of a mutual agreement, UPRR still runs the occasional freight train up to San Francisco.
To address that, Caltrain has already performed a number of computer simulations (see Appendix C) to prove to FRA that modern EMUs actually perform as well or better in FRA's standardized crash tests than FRA-compliant equipment. However, it's unclear if FRA will ease its rules on mixed traffic without any expensive real-world crash tests, if only because its decision will set a precedent commuter rail operators all over the country will refer to.
Depending on how FRA rules on its own waiver application, Caltrain might have to continue using FRA-complaint south of San Jose if it chooses option b.
@rafael --
Re: FRA -- a couple of years ago, Caltrain made the initial contact with the FRA about a waiver. Caltrain wants to run EMUs not locomotive-power trains. What they found was that rather than have to educate the FRA about this issue, they found the FRA quite willing to grant such a waiver.
You should check to see the current state of things but I would not assume that the FRA is causing (would cause) a problem. The waiver may simply be "in process" and not experiencing any hang ups.
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text:
Measures On Film Commission Appointments, Renter Hardship Lose, All Others Win
by Bay City News | June 9, 2010 1:25 am	| in News | 1
San Francisco voters Tuesday gave broad approval to a $412.3 million bond measure for seismic upgrades to the city's firefighting and police facilities.
Measure B passed with more than 79 percent of the vote, according to complete unofficial results from the city's elections department.
The money will be used to renovate and make seismic upgrades to the city's auxiliary water supply system; to build, repair and retrofit fire stations; and to build a new Public Safety Building in Mission Bay that would house police headquarters, the Southern District police station and a fire station.
The Public Safety Building would replace the current facilities at the antiquated Hall of Justice at 850 Bryant St.
The measure allows an increase in property taxes to pay for the bonds.
The measure, which required a two-thirds vote to pass, had wide support from city officials, including Mayor Gavin Newsom and most of the Board of Supervisors, police Chief George Gascon and fire Chief Joanne Hayes-White.
The measure as originally introduced was $652 million, but $240 million–which would have funded a new forensic sciences center for the medical examiner's office and crime lab–was later removed.
Seventy percent of San Francisco voters also approved Measure A, renewing a $32.20 parcel tax for seismic and fire safety repairs at public schools.
Voters turned down Measure C, which would have given the Board of Supervisors say over the appointment of some members of the city's Film Commission, who are all currently appointed by the mayor. The vote was 54 percent to 46 percent to reject the measure.
Measure D, which will change the way retirement benefits are calculated for new city employees, was approved by nearly 78 percent of voters. Proponents argued the retirement benefits the city was paying its employees under the current system are unsustainable.
Measure E requiring disclosure of the Police Department's annual budget for security to city officials and visiting dignitaries was approved with more than 55 percent of the vote.
San Franciscans voted down Measure F to allow additional provisions for tenants to postpone rent increases if they become unemployed, and approved a Measure G affirming city policy to locate the northern terminus of the planned San Francisco-Los Angeles high-speed rail line at the city's downtown Transbay Transit Center.


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Trânsito de Mercúrio é a passagem do planeta Mercúrio entre o Sol e a Terra. No fenômeno, Mercúrio é visto como um pequeno ponto escuro movendo-se pelo disco solar.

Os trânsitos de Mercúrio com relação à Terra são muito mais frequentes que os trânsitos de Vênus, ocorrendo cerca de 13 ou 14 vezes a cada século, sempre nos meses de maio ou novembro. Uma das razões para esta frequência maior é o fato que o período da órbita de Mercúrio é mais curto que o de Vênus.

O primeiro trânsito de Mercúrio observado por cientistas, em 7 de novembro de 1631, foi previsto por Kepler em 1627. Ele faleceu em 1630, um ano antes de ver sua previsão confirmada. Os três últimos trânsitos de Mercúrio ocorreram em  2003, 2006 e 2016.

Ocorrência de trânsitos
Os trânsitos de Mercúrio podem acontecer em maio ou novembro, sendo que os trânsitos de novembro têm o dobro da frequência dos de maio. Atualmente eles ocorrem dentro de um período de poucos dias próximos a 8 de maio e 10 de novembro. O intervalo entre um trânsito de novembro e o próximo trânsito em novembro pode ser de 7, 13 ou 33 anos, enquanto o intervalo entre dois trânsitos em maio pode ser de 13 ou 33 anos.

Os trânsitos de maio são menos frequentes que os de novembro porque durante um trânsito de maio, Mercúrio está próximo ao afélio, enquanto em novembro ele está próximo do periélio. Os trânsitos no periélio são mais frequentes devido a dois efeitos: primeiro, Mercúrio se move mais rápido na sua órbita ao periélio e pode atingir o nó do trânsito mais rapidamente, e em segundo, no periélio Mercúrio está mais próximo do Sol, e portanto, tem uma paralaxe menor.

Durante os trânsitos de maio, Mercúrio possui um diâmetro angular de 12" e eles ocorrem no nó descendente da órbita de Mercúrio. Durante os trânsitos de novembro, Mercúrio possui um diâmetro angular de 10" e estes trânsitos ocorrem no nó ascendente.

Os trânsitos de Mercúrio estão gradualmente se deslocando para o fim do ano; antes de 1585 eles aconteciam em abril e outubro.

Trânsitos tangentes
Algumas vezes Mercúrio parece apenas tocar o Sol durante o trânsito. Neste caso é possível que em algumas áreas da Terra seja visto um trânsito completo enquanto que em outras seja visto apenas um trânsito parcial (sem um segundo ou terceiro contato). O trânsito de 15 de novembro de 1999 foi um trânsito deste tipo, e o anterior a ele ocorreu em 28 de outubro de 743. O próximo trânsito deste tipo vai ocorrer em 11 de maio de 2391.

Também é possível que um trânsito de Mercúrio seja visto em algumas partes do mundo como um trânsito parcial enquanto que em outras partes ele simplesmente não transite na frente do Sol. O último destes trânsitos ocorreu em 11 de maio de 1937, e o anterior a ele em 21 de outubro de 1342. O próximo deste tipo vai ocorrer em 13 de maio de 2608.

Trânsitos passados e futuros
A primeira observação de um trânsito de Mercúrio ocorreu em 7 de novembro de 1631, por Pierre Gassendi. Entretanto, Kepler havia predito a ocorrência de trânsitos de Mercúrio e Vênus algum tempo antes. Ele tentou observar o trânsito de Vênus um mês mais tarde, mas devido a um erro nas tábuas astronômicas, ele não percebeu que o trânsito não seria visível na maior parte da Europa, incluindo Paris. Um trânsito de Vênus só foi observado em 1639, por Jeremiah Horrocks.

Ver também
 Trânsito de Vênus

Ligações externas

Mercurio
Mercúrio (planeta)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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MBA Programs in Pharmaceuticals: Beyond the Lab
By M. Filtz on Aug 20, 2013
How MBA programs can help students tap into a wide range of roles in both big and small pharma firms
By all accounts, the pharmaceutical industry is huge, and growing. Recent reports put the worldwide revenue from prescription drug sales as high as almost $1 trillion. And with developing middle classes needing more and more drugs in places like China and India, the industry is globalizing, and is not going to slow down anytime soon.
Perhaps because of this growth potential, some business students are tuning in. A number of MBA programs that focus specifically in pharmaceuticals have emerged in the past decade, helping students combine business know-how with the technical knowledge that they will need in this scientific field.
Many students who are interested in these programs find that the industry meshes with their millennial worldview, which tends to be idealistic and strongly entrepreneurial.
"What I find with this generation is that the healthcare sector in general has become much more popular, because they really like to work in sectors that have products and services that actually have meaning, and can help society," says Cliff Cramer, who directs Columbia Business School's Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Management Program, which launched in 2006.
According to Mahmud Hassan, the director of Rutgers' Business School's Pharmaceutical MBA Program, the program is not for everybody, and the students who tend to excel in the program are those who have either an interest in the industry, or a strong technical background (some students might even already have either a PhD or a PharmD.)
"For the people who have done well, they've had science backgrounds or experience in the healthcare industry," Hassan says, adding that "they may have worked not directly with the pharma industry, but indirectly, like as a consultant, or as a researcher."
Due to the way the industry works – products are developed through scientific and technological innovation, and then distributed through a complex supply chain that is governed by evolving regulations – people with some knowledge of the industry, or those who have technical backgrounds, tend to succeed in pharmaceutical-oriented MBA programs.
Hassan notes that some students also come from other strongly quantitative fields, such as information technology and finance.
Cliff Cramer says that a previous connection to the industry can spur interest and provide a jumping-in point for a career in pharma. Some people who pursue the Columbia program "have been consulting in the space, and others have broader healthcare experience," he says, "and some even come from different sectors or different areas, but they bring very strong quantitative and analytical skills."
Columbia's program supplements core business topics with specific insight into both the pharmaceutical sector as well as the healthcare industry more broadly. The specialized curriculum includes a range of courses like "Economics of Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals," "Investing in Medical Technologies," and "Strategy and Competition in Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology."
Such programs that offer broader concentrations in healthcare allow students to dive into not only pharmaceuticals, but also the biotech sector, as well as other parts of the rapidly-changing industry. Similar programs include Wharton's MBA in Health Care Management, which provides some pharmaceutical-specific curriculum, but also addresses the emerging regulatory, legal, and financial challenges of the industry; and Boston University's Health Sector MBA program.
And other business schools that have strong pharmaceutical placements might not necessarily offer a specialization in the field, but leverage proximity to large firms in the industry. For example, Copenhagen Business School generally places a fair number of MBA graduates each year in the pharmaceutical industry, without a concentration. Admissions director Thuli Skosana says that this is because the city of Copenhagen sits in what's known as "Medicon Valley" – Scandinavia's primary life sciences hub.
"It's not the majority of people who come here targeting the pharmaceutical industry, but people certainly find opportunities afterward," she says, noting that some MBA graduates end up in large pharma companies like Novo Nordisk or in smaller startups that might specialize in bio-medical innovation.
An array of post-MBA career options
Indeed, because the pharmaceutical industry is so large and complex, a huge variety of jobs await well-prepared MBA graduates. In the Rutgers MBA program, students who specialize in pharmaceuticals can also choose a second concentration, usually focusing on a functional area.
"Supply chain and marketing – those are the most popular combinations," says Mahmud Hassan, who notes that a good number of other pharma students pursue a finance concentration.
Graduates of the Rutgers program by and large go into "Big Pharma" firms – giants like Pfizer, Novartis, and GlaxoSmithKline, which, from a revenue standpoint, make up a large percentage of the industry. These companies are so large and sprawling that they can offer jobs for MBA graduates with an array of interests, from roles in research and development and drug delivery management to corporate finance and marketing.
And often, even those whose goal is to work in a smaller pharmaceutical company or a startup would benefit from getting some experience in a larger company. Because of the way the industry works, "a lot of the financing that the smaller bio-tech companies need is coming from the larger pharma companies," says Columbia's Cliff Cramer.
"If you get some experience with the larger companies, and understand their culture," he continues, "and then you go to a smaller one, you're going to be very well-received."
For more information about MBA programs that focus on pharmaceuticals, please see FIND MBA's list of the top schools for a career in Health Care / Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology.
Photo: M. Filtz
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DAVE GROHL TO PUBLISH NEW BOOK WITH DEY STREET BOOKS
DEY STREET BOOKS TO PUBLISH NEW BOOK FROM LEGENDARY MUSICIAN DAVE GROHL
Dey Street Books, an imprint of the William Morrow Group at HarperCollins, announced today that they will publish THE STORYTELLER by Grammy-winning musician, documentary filmmaker, and fledgling author Dave Grohl. Dey Street VP and Editorial Director Carrie Thornton negotiated the deal with WME. Grohl is managed by Silva Artist Management. The book will go on sale October 5, 2021 and will also be published in UK & Commonwealth (Simon & Schuster), Finland (Bazar), Germany (Ullstein), Holland (A.W. Bruna), and Italy (Rizzoli).
Dave Grohl has been one of the most beloved and respected figures on the international music scene since his recorded debut with Nirvana on 1991's generation-defining Nevermind. Grohl took center stage with Foo Fighters' 1995 self-titled debut, the first of 10 albums in a massive 12-Grammy-winning streak, most recently including the #1 album sales charting Medicine at Midnight. Grohl has traveled the planet doing the thing he loves most—playing rock n roll marathons for tens of thousands of ecstatic Foo Fighter fans. But when the pandemic necessitated going into lockdown, Grohl took stock of how he might use this moment of pause. Channeling his creativity into writing and using his remarkable skill for storytelling, in May 2020 he wrote a moving reflection for The Atlantic on missing the thrill of live music during the Covid era that went viral. Then, ending a longstanding self-imposed exile from social media, Grohl's new Instagram account @davestruestories was born. This new platform became a way for Dave to share his extraordinary (and funny) stories with fans and fellow music nuts and now, Grohl is set to build upon that momentum with his first book.
Grohl's new book is as much a celebration of music as it is about the moments that have molded him into the man he is today. From hilarious childhood mishaps, touching family moments, leaving home to see the world at eighteen, to spectacular stories about Nirvana, Foo Fighters, David Bowie, Joan Jett, Iggy Pop, Paul McCartney, playing drums for Tom Petty on Saturday Night Live, performing at the White House, and even swing dancing with AC/DC, with all love, laughs, loss, and embarrassments along the way, THE STORYTELLER is a fascinating look at a life lived loud.
"There is a common thread that runs throughout everything that I do: storytelling. Whether in song, documentary film or on the page, I have always felt compelled to share moments from my life. This inclination is a huge part of what excites me creatively but also as a human being. In March 2020, realizing that my day job with the Foo Fighters was going to go on hold, I started an Instagram account (@davestruestories) and decided to focus all of my creative energy on writing some of my stories down, something I love doing but I've never really had the time for. I soon found that the reward I felt every time I posted a story was the same as the feeling I get when playing a song to an audience, so I kept on writing. The response from readers was a soul-filling as any applause in an arena. So, I took stock of all the experiences I've had in my life-incredible, difficult, funny and emotional-and decided it was time to finally put them into words. Now with the amazing people at Dey Street books I'm excited and honored to announce THE STORYTELLER, a collection of memories of a life lived loud. From my early days growing up in the suburbs of Washington, DC, to hitting the road at the age of 18, and all the music that followed, I can now share these adventures with the world, as seen and heard from behind the microphone. Turn it up!" Grohl says.
"From the second I saw Dave's first post on Instagram, I knew I was going to publish his book. Well, to be honest, I've been hoping to publish Dave Grohl's book since I became a book editor. I'm a Gen-Xer. I'm from Virginia just like Dave. We grew up listening to a lot of the same music. I've always admired his Puckish personality and his awesome musicianship. It turns out that he can write with as much energy and passion as he performs. Plus, he's a spectacular human who cares deeply about his mom, his family, his bandmates, music, art and the world. All of that passion comes through in his stories and in THE STORYTELLER. I am a lucky editor indeed, but mostly because I get to read the book first," says Thornton.
DAVE GROHL is a 16-time Grammy-winning musician and 2-time Emmy-winning director.
Dave Grohl has been one of the most beloved and respected figures on the international music scene since his recorded debut with Nirvana on 1991's generation-defining Nevermind. Grohl took center stage with Foo Fighters' 1995 self-titled debut, the first album in massive 12-Grammy-winning catalogue that now includes The Colour & The Shape (1997), There Is Nothing Left To Lose (1999), One By One (2002), In Your Honor (2005), Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace (2007), Wasting Light (2011), Sonic Highways (2014), Concrete and Gold (2017) and, most recently, Medicine at Midnight (2021).
Grohl has a well-earned reputation as a prolific collaborator: His various endeavors have included "Cut Me Some Slack," written and recorded with Paul McCartney and Grohl's Nirvana bandmates Krist Novoselic and Pat Smear; Them Crooked Vultures, formed with Led Zeppelin's John Paul Jones and Queens of the Stone Age's Joshua Homme, late legends David Bowie and Lemmy Kilmister of Motorhead, as well as Mick Jagger, Neil Young, Elton John, Nine Inch Nails, Roger Taylor and Brian May of Queen, to name a few.
In 2013, Grohl made his debut as a feature director/producer with the acclaimed documentary Sound City. Named for the Van Nuys CA studio where Nirvana recorded Nevermind in 1991, which would sell more than 30 million copies and transform the modern musical landscape. Premiering to unanimous raves at Sundance and achieving a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Sound City focused both on the history of the legendary studio and on the ongoing fight to preserve the human element of music. Hailed by Peter Travers of Rolling Stone as an "exhilarating documentary about what makes life worth living," by The New York Times as "candy to several generations' worth of rock fans" and NPR as "a celebration of just how unbelievably awesome it is to make rock music for a living," Sound City has since been certified as a Gold Longform Video by the RIAA, while the Sound City—Real To Reel companion album took the 2013 Grammys for Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media and Best Rock Song ("Cut Me Some Slack").
Grohl also directed the eight-part HBO docuseries Foo Fighters: Sonic Highways, which premiered in October 2014 and went on to win two of the four Emmys for which it was nominated (outstanding sound mixing for nonfiction programming and outstanding sound editing for nonfiction programming). Described by Grohl as a love letter to the history of American music, Sonic Highways was comprised of eight one-hour episodes, each chronicling the creation of one song on Foo Fighters' Sonic Highways album, each written and recorded in a different American musical landmark — Austin, Chicago, Los Angeles, Nashville, New Orleans, New York, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.
About HarperCollins
HarperCollins Publishers is the second largest consumer book publisher in the world, with operations in 17 countries. With 200 years of history and more than 120 branded imprints around the world, HarperCollins publishes approximately 10,000 new books every year in 16 languages and has a print and digital catalog of more than 200,000 titles. Writing across dozens of genres, HarperCollins authors include winners of the Nobel Prize, the Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Award, the Newbery and Caldecott Medals and the Man Booker Prize. HarperCollins, headquartered in New York, is a subsidiary of News Corp (Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA; ASX: NWS, NWSLV) and can be visited online at corporate.HC.com.
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text:
Larnax sagasteguii är en potatisväxtart som beskrevs av S. Leiva Gonzalez, V. Quipuscoa Silvestre och N.W. Sawyer. Larnax sagasteguii ingår i släktet Larnax och familjen potatisväxter. Inga underarter finns listade i Catalogue of Life.

Källor

Potatisväxter
sagasteguii


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Феликс Тимтарбум (; 20 ноября 1935, Донсин, Французский Судан — 9 июня 2013, Париж, Франция) — государственный, военный и общественный деятель Верхней Вольты, министр иностранных дел (1980—1982).

Биография

Получил высшее образование в области естественных наук в Париже, затем был на службе в Вооруженных силах Верхней Вольты, имел звание полковника.
 1971—1976 гг. — министр молодежи и спорта,
 1980—1982 гг. — министр иностранных дел Верхней Вольты.

Затем стал спортивным функционером — в 1988—1992 гг. возглавлял Федерацию футбола Буркина-Фасо. Являлся основателем Спортивного союза Уагадугу, который возглавлял в 1987—2012 гг.

Источники

https://web.archive.org/web/20131203141704/http://www.fasozine.com/index.php/sports/10324-sport-deces-du-colonel-felix-tiemtarboum

Министры иностранных дел Буркина-Фасо