Skeptic, the journal of the Skeptics Society, recently printed two articles on the JFK assassination. One, "Case Still Open", was a truly skeptical appraisal of the claims of author Gerald Posner's book Case Closed. The other, "Tragedy on Elm Street", by Nick Gerlich, was a more typical example of what passes for "unbiased" journalism when the JFK assassination is being discussed. Gerlich claims that his article is an examination of "the many truths and non-truths surrounding the JFK assassination" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 40), but by credulously parroting Posner, he inherits the misrepresentations of Case Closed.
While an uncritical press has generally praised Posner's work as definitive, Case Closed, if approached with just half of the skepticism heaped upon the conspiracy theorists, is easily seen to be frequently disingenuous and often dishonest. Even though Gerlich is dismissive of conspiracy theorists because, he thinks, they "raise interesting questions, and then leave the reader to draw his own conclusions" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 49), it seems obvious that the truth is always served by the exposure of errors in fact and reasoning. This article discusses some of the problems Posner and Gerlich have with the actual facts involved in the JFK assassination, facts which must be recognized before any greater truth can be determined.
LBJ: Have you established any more about [Oswald's] visit to the Soviet Embassy in Mexico in September?
This one document exposes decades of obfuscation and lies by the government. The Warren Commission was told nothing about audiotapes. CIA officer David Atlee Phillips told the House Select Committee on Assassinations that the tapes had been routinely destroyed early in October 1963. When a document (prior to the above transcript) was found to contradict this, the FBI said the source of confusion was that they had received mere transcripts of the Oswald tapes from the CIA. But then the LBJ/Hoover conversation was released, proving that there was an Oswald impostor in Mexico, and Hoover and the President knew about it. What possible explanation can there be for this "second person" who was "using Oswald's name"? Why did neither LBJ nor Hoover notify the Warren Commission about these tapes? Why did the CIA and FBI continue to hide their knowledge of them? What ever happened to the tapes?
This document obviously did not help explain any anomalies, and there could be hundreds more like it waiting to be discovered. Or maybe, as researchers search through the thousands of pages of recently-released documents, they will tie-up all the loose ends into a noose around Oswald's neck. We just can't know, and skeptics should withhold judgment, not issue blanket statements about what they heven't yet read.
Gerlich says that Groden, Livingstone, and other critics used the Zapruder film to build a time line for comparison to the operation of the Mannlicher-Carcano. It was the Warren Commission that first used the film's frame rate to help establish the average speed of Kennedy's limousine and the sequence of shots. The critics then examined and critiqued the Commission's version while developing their own theories of the shots, as did Posner.
Gerlich refers to Posner to say the shots were "a quite manageable feat" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 41). A letter in the same issue of Skeptic magazine (Leonardis, 1999, p. 25) deftly handles the feat's possibility versus probability, pointing out that only one marksman ever "recreated" Oswald's alleged shots. While this marksman was .4 seconds faster than Oswald, he still took 5.2 seconds, a far cry from Posner's claim that the HSCA tests "reduced the time necessary for three effective shots to 3.3 seconds" (Posner, 1993, p. 318). Gerlich swallows this whole, but Posner did not tell us that the HSCA marksmen "did not use a telescopic sight . . . but only the rifle's own iron sights. Three tests resulted in firings of 1.65, 1.75 and over 2 seconds. The target was hit on the two fastest times . . . but no one came close to hitting the target on the second shot" (Fonzi, 1993, p. 219). They didn't even try a third shot; Posner just doubled the fastest time and turned one hit into "three effective shots".
Gerlich also follows Posner's interpretation of Zapruder's jerking camera as indicative of when the first shot was fired, while acknowledging that there were "four slight twitches" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 41). Either this means that four shots were fired, and therefore there was a second gunman, or that the twitches could be caused by something other than gunfire, thus demonstrating that "twitch analysis" is itself shaky at best. An objective look at the facts can only label the shots as described by the Warren Commission or Posner as improbable - which, obviously, is not to say impossible. But Posner has clearly misrepresented the facts of the firing tests to make the lone gunman theory more palatable, and that should be noted in any review of his work.
Gerlich indulges in a classic straw man argument when discussing the possibility of other gunmen. Granted, some pro-conspiracy writers have proposed an unrealistically large number of shooters, but to say that "Dealey Plaza was literally crawling with . . . an entire posse of marksmen" is a vague distortion of most theories, and so no real point is made my dismissing it as "a flight of fancy" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 41).
Obviously it would have been difficult for additional shooters to escape sight, but there were a number of eyewitness, such as Gordon Arnold, Lee Bowers, Jean Hill, Sam Holland, and Julia Mercer, that said they saw suspicious people in the grassy knoll area (Hurt, 1987). Individual reliability may vary, but their testimony is on record. By only mentioning the earwitnesses and the disorienting acoustics of Dealey Plaza, Gerlich misdirects the reader and implies that there were no relevant eyewitnesses. Like Posner's use of the HSCA's firing tests, that is simply not the whole story. Gerlich should have mentioned the eyewitnesses and then attempted to establish specific critical reasons for contradicting them, instead of just proceeding as if they didn't exist.
According to Gerlich, "as preposterous as the Magic Bullet theory may sound . . . it is the best conclusion we have" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 42). "That the bullet was in reasonably good shape following the ordeal is not the issue" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 44). The condition of the bullet after this preposterous ordeal is precisely the issue. How can ballistic evidence be so cavalierly dismissed?
Posner's diagram of the single bullet theory labels Connally's back wound as one and a quarter inches long, "the exact length of the bullet - indicating the bullet was tumbling end over end" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 43; Posner, 1993, p. 479). Dr. John Lattimer, one of Posners sources, says that the back wound was "elongated" (Posner, p. 386), but gives no measurements. The diagram does not give a source for the one and a quarter inch figure. The Warren Report, curiously, gave no direct measurement of the wound. Dr. Robert Shaw is stated to have determined it was an entrance wound from its "small size and clean cut edges" (Warren, 1964, p. 95). The Warren Report goes on to say that Connally's clothing "contained holes which matched his wounds" (Warren, 1964, p. 96). The hole in the back of his jacket is described as "five-eighths of an inch in length and one-fourth of an inch in height" (Warren, 1964, p. 96). The back of his shirt had a "very ragged tear five-eighths of an inch long horizontally and one-half of an inch vertically . . . [and] immediately to the right was another small tear approximately three-sixteenths of an inch long" (Warren, 1964, p. 97). Both of the elongated holes, described as matching Connally's back wound, establish a length of five-eighths of an inch, exactly half the length given by Posner and repeated by Gerlich. This discrepancy was explained by Dr. Shaw in 1992, when he said that he "had cut away the edges of the wound, and so the scar did not reflect its original appearance, enlarging it from 1.5 to 3 centimeters [approximately five-eighths to one and a quarter inches]" (Dallas Autopsy Forum, June 1992).
Coincidentally, the Warren Report, when discussing bullet velocity and the possibility of tumbling, called the previously-described back wound of "small size" a "large wound" (Warren, 1964, p. 105). It would seem the Commission avoided giving the actual wound measurement so that they could vary its description depending on what part of their theory they wanted to prove: small for entrance, large for tumbling. Similarly, Posner apparently used the longer scar measurement to more conclusively prove tumbling, ignoring the attending physician's statements and the clothing. He has added another trick to the Magic Bullet's act. It was able to turn from relatively head-on to sideways in the space between Connally's shirt and his back.
Gerlich thinks it is "quite easy to suggest that a person or organization had means motive, and opportunity" so "tossing around names of possible conspirators, but without the proof to back it up, is like saying that October's Hurricane Mitch was really a Contra plot to get back at the Sandinistas" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 44). It's difficult to know where to begin with this farcical simile. Attempted humor aside, surely he didn't mean to imply that he could establish means, motive and opportunity for this Contra revenge theory. In any event it's difficult to find a legitimate point in this statement.
Why should, for example, the theory that the Mafia assassinated JFK be dismissed out of hand like this Hurricane Mitch nonsense? Gerlich says that "conspiracy theorists love to recite an old mantra about getting rid of the dog that wags the tail" (Gerlich, p. 44), as if they are arguing from a mere adage, not a quote directly attributed to "Mafia Kingfish" Carlos Marcello. Edward Becker, in testimony to the HSCA, recalled Marcello stating "he was going to arrange to have President Kennedy murdered" because "the dog will keep biting you if you only cut off its tail" (Scheim, 1989, p. 81). [Editor's Note: The "tail" being referred to was the president's brother, Robert Kennedy, who, as attorney general, was aggressively pursuing the mafia in general, and Carlos Marcello in particular.] Gerlich only evades the Mafia theory with his straw man meteorology, without giving any critical deliberation of the evidence.
Gerlich dismisses the possibility that Oswald knew David Ferrie in 1955 because Ferrie was dismissed from the Civil Air Patrol "in the mid-1950's" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 46). Gerlich is more vague than Posner, who says Ferrie "was a member through 1954 . . . [but] when he submitted his 1955 renewal he was rejected" (Posner, 1993, p. 143). Nevertheless, a picture has been published of Oswald and Ferrie at a CAP picnic in 1955 (Groden, 1995, p. 18). Perhaps it is significant that Ferrie, who held the rank of captain, is dressed like the boys, displaying no rank insignia. That Ferrie and Oswald met may have no bearing on the assassination, but once again the issue is one of acknowledging the existing evidence. There are several witnesses who claim Ferrie and Oswald knew each other in the Civil Air Patrol and there is a photograph. Maybe, ironically, Posner and Gerlich would dismiss the photo as merely showing a "second" Ferrie.
Gerlich says there is "speculation that [Oswald] (or a "second" Oswald) made . . . appearances in Louisiana, Texas, and even Mexico City" (Gerlich, p. 46). "Once his face was broadcast, it seemed that everyone had seen Oswald . . . even appearing at a U.S. embassy in Mexico City . . . these reported sightings are probably just colorful imaginations" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 48). It is well-documented that Oswald, and someone passing himself off as Oswald, was in Mexico City. In addition to the LBJ/Hoover transcript given above, the CIA station in Mexico City contacted the Department of the Navy, the State Department, and the FBI on October 10th, 1963 via teletype: "On 1 October 1963 . . . Lee Oswald contacted the Soviet Embassy in Mexico City . . . It is believed that Oswald may be identical to Lee Henry [sic] Oswald . . . a former U.S. Marine who defected to the Soviet Union" (Newman, 1995, p. 399). Posner accepts the Warren Commission's evidence of the real Oswald's visit, mentioning, among other things, that Oswald "signed his real name to the hotel register (confirmed later by handwriting experts)" (Posner, 1993, p. 173). This is yet another example of Gerlich carelessly ignoring the official record, apparently in order to paint pro-conspiracy people as just having "colorful imaginations" and no evidence.
Gerlich says that the pro-conspiracy position has a number of weaknesses: "the burden of proof is on those who allege a conspiracy to name the individuals responsible . . . none of the points they have made either singularly or collectively prove a conspiracy . . . pro-conspiracy advocates have failed to produce any of the mythical accomplices . . . in 35 years, no one else has been apprehended" (Gerlich, 1999, p. 49).
Over the years names have been named. As one example we have Jean Souetre, a French army deserter "alleged to have been deeply involved in the planning of the assassination of de Gaulle in August 1962" (FOIA lawsuit by Bernard Fensterwald for Gary Shaw). A CIA document released in 1977 reads "Jean Souetre aka Michel Roux aka Michel Mertz . . . had been expelled from the U.S. at Fort Worth or Dallas 48 hours after the assassination. He was in Fort Worth on morning of 22 November and in Dallas in the afternoon" (CIA document #632-796, released 1976).
Souetre is a reasonable suspect as a hired assassin. He, of course, denies being in Dallas on that day, and says perhaps it was Mertz, a drug smuggler with French spy agency connections, using his name (both of his aliases are names of real people; strangely, Michel Roux, another deserter, was also in the Dallas-Fort Worth area at the time). But how can conspiracy advocates gather substantial proof under the circumstances that exist in this country? The above CIA document was pried open only by the Freedom of Information Act.
So much evidence gathered over the years is kept secret, and where there is evidence or tantalizing hints of new avenues of investigation, people like Gerlich dismiss it without a moment's critical thought. He even refers to "mythical accomplices" - relegating any theory of an accomplice to the same level of believability as fairies and leprechauns. And who would have the power to apprehend a suspect anyway? Given the overall acceptance of the Warren Report by official government agencies, it seems there is no legal authority who could or would arrest a grassy knoll shooter even if he confessed.
When Gerlich states that conspiracy theorists "systematically chip away at the Warren Commission, one brick at a time. Yet the core conclusion of the Warren Commission Report still stands - Oswald did it alone" (Gerlich, p. 49), he seems to say "Knock down all the walls, but the building still stands." There can be no debating Gerlich, for it is his mind, not the case, which is "closed".
Regardless of one's stance on the issue of conspiracy, the search for truth is served only by the accurate recounting of evidence. We can argue various interpretations of said evidence, or even, with proper foundation, dismiss some evidence as fraudulent, but there is a sizable official record that should be acknowledged in any objective overview of the assassination. Posner and Gerlich, however, twist the record to achieve their ends. There are those in the conspiracy community who have done likewise, but skeptics who concentrate their skepticism only on the conspiracy theories seem to have suffered a more hypocritical failure of logic. It is as if the Warren Report has achieved canonical status, and anything that substantially deviates from it is heresy.
The appropriate purpose of searching for errors in any text which purports to be "the truth" is to ascertain its veracity, which can be done without vilifying its proponents, be they Christians or lone gunman believers. There is no persecution here, no martyrs among Warren "apologists," but the often circular reasoning of blind faith is in full force. The Warren Report declared there was only one shooter, so all witnesses to the contrary must be dismissed, therefore there was no conspiracy, because there were no credible witnesses to the contrary. They recite their own mantra about the burden of proof being on the conspiracy theorists as if the lone gunman and his single bullet are a given, brought down from the mount carved in stone. But the burden of proof applied equally to the original plaintiff, the Warren Commission - and for this skeptic they did not prove the lone assassin theory beyond a reasonable doubt. Nevertheless, for Gerlich, like Posner, the conclusion that Oswald did it alone still stands, no matter how many Warren Commission premises were wrong - it has become dogma, logic be damned.
Fonzi, Gaeton, The Last Investigation, New York, Thunders Mouth Press, 1993.
Gerlich, Nick, "Tragedy on Elm Street," Skeptic, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1999.
Groden, Robert J., The Search for Lee Harvey Oswald, New York, Penguin Books, 1995.
Hurt, Henry, Reasonable Doubt, New York, Henry Holt, 1987.
Leonardis, Roger, "The JFK Head Shot," Skeptic, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1999.
Newman, John, Oswald and the CIA, Carroll and Graf, 1995.
Posner, Gerald, Case Closed New York, Random House, 1993.
Scheim, David E., Contract on America, New York, Zebra, 1989.
Snyder, Arthur and Margaret, "Case Still Open", Skeptic, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1999.
United States Government, Report of the Warren Commission on the Assassination of President Kennedy, Washington, D.C., US GPO, 1964.
Weisberg, Harold, Case Open, New York, Carroll and Graf, 1994.


1. Permit myself to have down time. Take breaks from the day job, my 'to do' list, and other self-imposed 'rules' at least once each week.
2. Do something new each week. That could mean explore a new town on the drive home, call someone I haven't spoken to in a long time, or try a new art technique.
3. Write, draw and make art each day.


A decade after the Lehman Brothers collapse triggered a global liquidity crisis, IMF has noted that sovereign debt ratios in advanced and emerging economies continue to rise.
A decade after the Lehman Brothers collapse triggered a global liquidity crisis, IMF has noted that sovereign debt ratios in advanced and emerging economies continue to rise. In 2018, the debt level of the US was a whopping 106.1 per cent of the GDP. Here's a look at the debt levels of some governments after global financial crisis.


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Hal Conklin answers question for Indivisible, Santa Barbara
by Keith Carlson | Oct 28, 2017 | Announcements, Editorials, Events, Indivisible Santa Barbara In the News
ISB: With a federal government which expressly denies Climate Change and sea rise, where do you stand on these issues as it impacts Santa Barbara? What should the mayor, the city council and the community do to assure sufficient water for our needs? What are your thoughts on rainwater capture, grey water, rain barrels, cisterns and other low cost methods?
HAL: There is no question that Climate Change impacts are showing up all over the world. I was most recently working on reforestation in Africa and it was directly impacted by a changing climate. I serve on a number of Environmental Boards that deal directly with Climate Change, but beyond legislative intent, the most direct impacts we can make locally are by modeling environmental behavior that other communities can follow. The largest impact is from vehicle emissions, and we need to rebuild the electrical infrastructure of Santa Barbara to make our community capable of handling a significant increase in electric and hybrid vehicles. When it comes to water, we need to embrace the new drip irrigation technologies that are being developed in other parts of the world (most particularly, in Israel) which reduce water use by 30%. Santa Barbara has a well diversified water supply, but its emergency supply comes from the newly reconstituted desalinization plant. This technology uses an enormous amount of energy, and the degree that we do not have to use it over the next 20 years reduces carbon emissions from fossil fuel power sources. The community has looked at – and advocated – low cost options such as grey water, rain barrels, cisterns, etc. over the last 50 years, but has most often been stopped by the County Health Dept. Some grey water is used for irrigation, but it still requires some form of treatment., unless it is direct runoff that is allowed to percolate directly back into the soil.
Oil Development
ISB: President Trump campaigned on expanding oil production. As mayor how would you respond to a proposal to expand off shore oil drilling in the Santa Barbara channel? Where do you stand on the 700 up-county new production wells being considered, the issue of corroded pipelines and other oil transportation. How as mayor would you deal with oil companies in our county?
HAL: All oil development and support services have been banned within the City of Santa Barbara since the 1970's. The County Board of Supervisors has responsibility for land-use planning for energy projects within the unincorporated areas of the county, and they have been strong for most of the last four decades in controlling oil impacts that exist and stopping new projects within their jurisdiction. The hardest part has been dealing with whatever the Federal Government approves offshore beyond the State Tidelands. No amount of lobbying the Federal Government has a profound effect, but standing strong at the County level in cooperation with local community groups (i.e. – EDC) is our best line of defense. The City Council (and to a limited degree, the Mayor) can help rally public support, but it is weak in comparison with the voices of the environmental community and the County Board of Supervisors. Nevertheless, the Mayor should use the "bully pulpit" of the office to make known the impacts that are pending before us and how it will impact our environment.
ISB: Healthcare and the safety net are under attack by the current federal administration, how would you address the homeless and mental health problem in Santa Barbara? Do laws that regulate public camping, sleeping, sitting in front of businesses or aggressive panhandling work to address homelessness, mental health and its related problems? How would you change what we are currently doing with mental health issues and the homeless? What are the other ordinances you would recommend?
HAL: There are no easy answers here, and I have been the Chair of the Ordinance Committee during many attempts to institute more humane laws – and public safety responses – to this issue. Some solutions have been helpful (the community rallied and put over ten million dollars into shelters and emergency supplies), and others turned into nightmares (allowing sleeping in public parks). The biggest challenge is dealing with the mentally ill, and the County (which has responsibility for responding to these kinds of health services) is ill equipped and understaffed to deal with the magnitude of the problem. This really requires a significant commitment from the State of California to address this crying need, and the City and County need to team up with their peers throughout the state to strongly advocate for funding from the Legislature. Without a significant increase in health services and housing assistance for the mentally ill, this problem will continue to fester and the general public has little tolerance for what they perceive as bad behavior. This really requires the Mayor and the staff to build strong coalitions of interests to sustain a significant lobbying effort with the Legislature. It cannot be delegated to the staff or to community organizations. It will test the Mayor's ability to unify support around some tough solutions and to make hard financial choices along the way. To often in the past, Mayors have made strong statements in support of action, but then delegated the issue to others and nothing ends up being done.
ISB: The median price for homes in SB is now over $940,000. The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment ranges between $2500 and $3,000. What role if any should city government have in providing, maintaining or incentivizing more affordable housing for those living here? What is your position on residential development on State Street?
HAL: The City has a good track record of providing a variety of housing programs for people with low incomes, especially among seniors. 14% of the housing stock of the city is owned, controlled, or subsidized by the government. Nevertheless, the growing need for "worker housing" demands that the City Council do more. There are a variety of "bonus density" programs underway, but they are not tied to any long-range plan for the economic build-out of the community. Santa Barbara's largest employment base (tourism, retail, higher education, health services, and government) needs more worker housing, but the community is quite sensitive to the perceived impacts of traffic and the consumption of more natural resources such as water, for "over development". Therefore, I believe the only way to effectively overcome these obstacles is to tie the possibility of additional density directly to a plan for economic development. In other words, put the new housing next to where the jobs are being planned so people do not need to get in their cars to drive to work. My first action as Mayor would be to organize the work necessary to adopt a new long-term economic plan for the community (most of which would be downtown) and then tie the potential of new housing to that plan. As with many other issues, this is not something that can be passed as a policy and then delegated to staff. It will require the Mayor to actively build coalitions with the business community to get this accomplished.
ISB: Considering the collapse of big store retail in Santa Barbara and across the nation, how is our economy doing? What do you consider the most important drivers of our Santa Barbara economy? What are the indicators, including State Street business activity of the direction of our local economy? What ordinances would you suggest to renew the State Street corridor? What more would you do as Mayor to assure a healthy economy for business development and jobs for our workers?
HAL: Santa Barbara's economic base has five key building blocks: Government, Tourism, Higher Education, Health Services, and Retail. Out of those three, the areas where the City can make the greatest impact going forward are in the changing world of Retail and the spin-off high tech companies emerging out of Higher Education. There is no question that downtown is impacted by the transition to Internet shopping, but this change is also an opportunity for a transition of some properties downtown to either high-tech industries, housing, or ancillary businesses that meet the needs of a growing population living downtown. We have seen the growth downtown of businesses such as Sonos (music techonology) or computer graphics for the film industry. These kinds of businesses pay much higher wages and can support worker housing downtown that are commercially built. As for Tourism and Retail, I would break up the downtown into smaller zones of interest and give each one a "sense of place" in its design, signing, and identification. I would suggest five zones of interest: 1) Waterfront, 2) Nighlife, 3) Retail + Housing mix, 4) History, and 5) Cultural District. In the Retail zone, I would build up to 500 units of worker housing and transform the zone from a "destination" for shopping to a "24/7 living environment."
ISB: Immigration and DACA have been targets of this federal administration. The Trump administration has explicitly targeted California. Where do you stand on these issues? How would you work with the district supervisors to limit ICE in our communities? Would you stand by the undocumented in this city? How would being a Sanctuary City. How would it mpact law enforcement? How do you plan to implement Senate Bill 54 – signed by Governor Brown establishing California as a Sanctuary State – as they apply to Santa Barbara.
HAL: Santa Barbara needs to be a safe community for everyone, regardless of their status. It is still unclear as to what impact California's becoming a "Sanctuary State" means at the city level, but I applaud the work done to date by the City of limit the role that the police play in supporting the ICE. All candidates are against letting criminals go free, but we also need to be sensitive to what is considered criminal behavior. A big concern is what happens if ICE comes into the community without notification and begins taking some action that sends a ripple of fear through our neighborhoods. We need to ask that our public safety people – along with our Congressional Office – be notified if ICE intends to take some action in Santa Barbara.
Suitability for Office
ISB: What in your professional history makes you the most suitable candidate for Mayor? Why are you the best candidate?
HAL: I am the only person running that has actually had the experience of having served both on the City Council (16 years) and Mayor (1 year). At the time of my service as Mayor, the City was involved in a law suit about term limits that ended up being made retroactive, thus requiring me to step out of service for at least a term. During my service on the City Council, I was elected by the cities of California to be the President of the California League of Cities, and by my peers on the national level to be the incoming President of the National League of Cities representing all locally elected officials in the country before the White House and Congress. Outside of public service, I spent a decade as the Co-Director of the Community Environmental Council of Santa Barbara, as well as 18 years as the Director of Local Public Affairs for Southern California Edison helping to get renewable energy located in southern California. In community service, I have been on the Boards of Green Seal (Washington DC), the Eden Reforestation Projects (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Haiti, and Nepal), Santa Barbara Center for the Performing Arts (Granada Theater), Environmental Media Association (Hollywood), and the Community Action Commission (Santa Barbara).

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Luke 23:44-56. This sermon was preached by Pastor Marty Bonner on May 1, 2016.
More than any other man, the death of Jesus has impacted the whole world. In fact, it impacted even the heavens. His death brings condemnation to the fallen angels and the wicked of the world that join with them in rebellion against God. However, it also pays the price of our sins so that those who believe in Jesus can be saved from their judgment. Thus Jesus told us that everything the Old Testament prophesied had to come to pass, even his own death. It is easy to want to avoid the horrible aspect of the cross. However, we must hear it and face the horror of what our own sin does. My sin breathes death and destruction into my life and the life of those around me. But, worse than that, my sin cost Jesus his life. It is at the cross that we see the true horror of what we choose when we cast God's way aside. Praise God that the blood of Jesus breathes eternal life into those who entrust him with their lives and their spirits.
Of course it is no shock that Jesus dies on the cross. We have heard this for centuries. Rather, it is what Jesus says and does while he is on the cross that is shocking and critical for us to pay close attention.
Luke points to two ominous signs and wonders that happened while Jesus was being crucified. First darkness comes over the land from noon until 3:00 PM. Jesus had been on the cross from some time after 9:00 AM. The darkness itself would be spooky and cannot be explained by an eclipse. The time of the lunar cycle is wrong (a full moon), and it lasts far too long to be a solar eclipse. I am not saying that it is a completely supernatural darkness. I am saying that something is going on that we do not know. If you picture the average person watching this controversial execution, you would have to recognize that they would be somewhat freaked out at such a heavenly disturbance. When the "lights go out," we are easily scared. Darkness is a symbol of evil. This event would fill the average person with dread. "Have we done the wrong thing? Is God angry?" Of course the power of spiritual darkness is exactly what Jesus had come to shatter. God promises in his word that weeping may last through the night, but joy will come in the morning.
The second ominous sign is seen in an earthquake that tears the temple curtain in half. Luke does not mention the earthquake, but we are told of this by the other Gospel authors. Most likely the tearing of the temple curtain is caused by the earthquake. What would this symbolize? The curtain veiled the Holiest place where the Ark of the Covenant and the presence of God were. It was pictured as his throne room. Only the High Priest could go past this curtain and then only once a year. God's holiness could only be approached by one man, once a year. This veil represents access to God. God was beginning to remove the obstacles that kept mankind from approaching his throne for mercy and grace. It represents an end to the old system. The way to the Father has been once and for all opened up by Jesus.
Luke then tells us of the last statement of Jesus on the cross. "Father, into your hands I commit my spirit." Before I deal with this, let me just say that John's Gospel records another thing Jesus said right before he died, "It is finished!" This phrase was used in the culture of that day to describe a bill that had been paid off. It was equivalent to saying, "Paid in full." Thus, the work of paying for the sins of mankind had been completed by Jesus. There was no more to be done, but die. Thus, Jesus gives this final statement of committing his spirit to the Father. It should be noted that these same words are recorded in Psalm 31, where David depicts his own dire straits and yet, his hope in God's salvation. Similar to his statement, "My God, my God, why have you forsaken me," Jesus draws our attention to a Psalm that helps us to understand what he is feeling and what is going on. Even though Psalm 22 and Psalm 31 are not penned by Jesus, but rather by David, Jesus directs our attention to them. Thus these Psalms take on deeper meaning when they are read in light of the predicament of Jesus. Jesus was being attacked on every side, but he still trusted in the Father. Perhaps that is why Jesus uses the term "My God" when he speaks of feeling forsaken, and why he uses the term "Father" when he stops trying to stay alive. Yes, he felt abandoned, but at the end of the day, he trusted his father. This statement is a statement of complete trust. He puts his spirit into the hands of the Father to do with what he will. So, every person who wants to follow Jesus is challenged to learn to trust the Father in the same way that Jesus did, completely and over the top of the feelings of our flesh.
Next Luke records some of the reactions of those who witnessed the crucifixion. He tells us of a Roman centurion who is supervising the execution of Jesus. He is amazed at how Jesus died and declares that he must have truly been a righteous man. In Matthew and Mark we are told that the centurion also declared that surely Jesus was the Son of God. This hardened soldier who had watched many men die, recognizes something different about Jesus and the ominous signs attending his death. In it he is convinced that Jesus was innocent and the Son of God.
After this Luke turns to the crowd. They are shocked and beat their breasts as they return to the city [beating the breast was a common sign of mourning]. Whether they are repentant or not will be proven by what they do later. At least in this moment, a window is opened in their heart that something very bad has just happened. There are times when God breaks open our crusted eyes and we recognize that our life is going the wrong direction. We may beat our breast as we go to our house, but that is not what will change us or justify us before God. It is not enough to be shocked into awareness by what God does. We must go on to repent of our sin and put our trust in His way. Otherwise, the moment will be lost and we will go on down the same path of sin.
This brings us to perhaps the greatest sign of all. Jesus himself, who demonstrated no wickedness and did not curse those executing him, is a sign of the love of God. As he hangs on a cross, bloodied and torn, he is a sign to mankind that God is willing to die in order that we might live.
It is nearing the Sabbath. The Jewish day did not begin at midnight, but rather at the beginning of evening. There was not much time to take the bodies down and dispatch of them. So what would be done with the body of Jesus? Criminals were usually tossed aside and left for the birds to pick clean. Yet, Luke tells us that a member of the Sanhedrin, named Joseph of Arimathea, goes to Pilate and asks for the body. This is a man who is similar to Nicodemus in John 3. They were both members of the high council and secret followers of Jesus. Though they objected to the decision to push for the execution of Jesus, they were careful to keep their distance, until now. We are told that Joseph was a good and just man who was waiting for the Kingdom of God. This was supposed to be the description of all the religious leaders and one that they would all lay claim to. However, is was only true of a few. Too often, while we are waiting for God and his plan, our hearts can become hard and we can forge our own way. This is true whether you are a believer in Jesus or not. Am I really waiting for the promises of Jesus? Or, have I become busy forging my own way. What Jesus was doing threatened all that the Pharisees had built up. Thus they put him to death in order to protect that which they could not keep. This seems to be the situation today. Many religious people cling to things that they have built and in the scramble to keep those things they can destroy the very faith in God that they claim to have. Beware, waiting on God is not easy nor is it for the faint of heart.
Joseph and Nicodemus prepared the body and put it in a fresh tomb that was nearby. This was a tomb that had been cut out of the rock. It was not normal to bury a criminal, but Jesus was not a criminal. The reference to the Preparation day has to do with the Sabbath. God had commanded Israel not to work on the Sabbath, even to prepare a meal. Thus, the day before became a day of preparing extra food and the things that would be need for the next day. As the body of Jesus is put into the tomb we can hear his words from John 12:24, "Unless a grain of wheat falls into the ground and dies, it remains alone; but if it dies, it produces much grain." They go forth weeping as they sow the seed of the body of Jesus, but they will doubtless come again rejoicing as God raises up a harvest from this act. There are many times in life that doing the right thing (obeying God's Word) seems to kill the hopes that we have. In those moments we can be like Joseph and Nicodemus putting into a sealed tomb all that we have lost. Yet, put your trust in God. He will not leave you nor forsake you.
Lastly, Luke records that they rested because it was the Sabbath. Yes, on the surface this is just a part of the details. However, it sets up an interesting picture. The work of Jesus on the cross, and the work of his disciples to put him in the tomb, ends with them resting on the Sabbath. Whether Luke does so purposefully or not, this parallels the Genesis 1 account. When God finishes creation he enters into a time of rest. So, Jesus finishes creating our salvation and enters into a time of rest. Even after his resurrection this time of rest continues. He ascends into heaven to sit at the right hand of the Father. It pictures Jesus as beginning a new creation by his own death and resurrection, and providing for his people a new place of rest. Today, we can experience the spiritual side of this new creation and also enter into a spiritual rest. We are not called to a life of slavery to commands in order to be saved. Rather we are set free by the grace of God so that we can live for him out of love and not threat. Even this spiritual life affects our natural life from day to day. However, we must recognize that all things on earth and in the heavens are destined to be recreated. Thus we have a picture of the followers of Jesus resting from their labors and living a life of worship to him as they wait for what he has promised to do for them. This is what it means to be a Christian today. We rest in the grace of Jesus, and live a life of worship to him, as we wait for his Second Coming. Let us run the race with all our hearts in such a way.
Luke 23:26-34. This sermon was preached by Pastor Marty Bonner on April 17, 2016.
The title comes from a phrase in Isaiah 53:7. The powerful descriptions in Isaiah 53 are hard to avoid. They point to the Messiah, the ultimate Servant of the Lord, being killed for the sins of Israel and of course the Gentiles as well. The Lord would lay all our sins upon him. This is what John the Baptist was pointing to when he said, "Behold, the Lamb of God." Isaiah goes on to state that "by his knowledge My righteous servant will justify many." The passage that we will look at today is exactly what Isaiah and John the Baptist were prophesying would happen.
Throughout the last 2,000 years it has been a tendency to focus upon the horrendous pain and suffering that our Lord endured in the twelve plus hours leading up to his death. This is to point out the great love that God has for mankind. However, we will see today that Jesus himself puts the emphasis upon the judgment that was still in the future. In other words, no matter how bad you think this judgment of me is, the judgment that is coming upon Israel (and by extension the world) is far worse. It is important for us today to be amazed at the love of Jesus towards us. Yet, it is equally important to recognize the judgment that looms over the world like an overhanging cliff that is about to collapse.
We have seen Jesus moved about from Pilate to Herod and back to Pilate. It is clear from the account that Pilate is done arguing with the Jewish leaders and thus gives judgment that Jesus is to be executed. In Luke's gospel we are not given long accounts of the suffering of Jesus. In fact, Luke skips the whipping that the Roman soldiers gave Jesus. Another important fact that is glossed over by Luke is that it was customary for those who were to be crucified to carry the cross beam that they would be nailed to from the place of judgment to the place of execution. Some scholars believe this could have been up to 2 miles since the place of execution was outside the city.
It is in this that Luke takes note of the need for another to carry the cross of Jesus. The most logical explanation for this is that Jesus physically is unable to carry the cross all the way. At some point, Jesus begins to fail and it is then that the soldiers press Simon of Cyrene into service. He was coming into town from the area around Jerusalem. Now Cyrene is a city on the coast of what we call Libya today. This is hundreds of miles away. Most likely Simon was coming into the city for the feast celebrations, having spent the evening in a place of lodging nearby. The fact that the Gospel of Mark mentions the names of his sons has led most scholars to contend that Simon had become a believer and joined the Jerusalem Church. This sets up an interesting parallel. Seemingly by accident, Simon runs into the Light of the World on his way to Jerusalem and has his eyes opened. Whereas later we see Saul of Tarsus running into the Light of the World while leaving Jerusalem. This theme of people having an encounter with Jesus and coming to believe in him, even without seeking it out, is seen regularly in the Scriptures. There is also an irony that Simon helps Jesus in a physical way, so that the Lord can help him in a spiritual way. Each and every one of us could die for our sins, but that would not save us. It would merely give proper payment. However, the death of Jesus allows those who believe in him to have eternal life. There is a time when each of us who are trying to carry our load in life, may begin to physically, emotionally, or even spiritually fail. We need others who will come alongside of us and help us to do what we need to do. Just as Jesus needed help in this way, so we need it all the more.
By now word has spread and a large crowd from Jerusalem has gathered with a contingent of women who are mourning the approaching execution of the one who was thought to be the Messiah. Jesus was the righteous teacher who was doing amazing things everywhere he went. Yet, now he is to be killed? While they are mourning Jesus gives warning to his mourners of their own coming judgment. He does not seek their pity, though they are right to mourn him. Rather, he is pointing them to where their pity would be better suited. It is as if he is saying, "You think this is bad? You should see what is coming for this whole nation. That is what you should be weeping over." This ominous warning points to something that would normally be seen as being cursed (childlessness). The days ahead will get so bad that that which is normally a curse will be a blessing. In a similar way he points out that things will get so bad that people would rather be crushed by a mountain then face it. Interestingly, this same figure of speech is seen in Revelation 6:16 where the kings of the earth and the mighty men cry out for the mountains to cover them, "for the great day of His wrath has come, and who is able to stand?" We often point out how horrible the cross was, but it was an event that was horrible for one man. First the judgment on Jerusalem in 70 A.D. (a national scale) and then the coming judgment, which will be global, each dwarf the physical and psychological trauma of Jesus.
Jesus then says, "If they do these things in the green wood what will be done in the dry?" This figure of speech is intended to warn of something worse to come. It does so by referencing green wood versus dry wood. Green wood does not burn very well and can be easily put out, whereas, dry wood is very dangerous and creates a far worse and hard to manage fire. Jesus is a righteous man in that sense he is green wood. He is more than connected to a thriving root system. Jesus is life itself. He is the vine and we are the branches. Thus, Jesus is warning that if this is what happens to the green wood, it will be much worse when the dry branches (those who have rejected God and have no life in themselves) are judged. This reminds me of Isaiah 57:1-4. "The righteous perishes, and no man takes it to heart; merciful men are taken away, while no one considers that the righteous is taken away from evil. He shall enter into peace; they shall rest in their beds, each one walking in his uprightness. But come here you sons of the sorceress, you offspring of the adulterer and the harlot! Whom do you ridicule?" The offspring of the sorceress, adulterer, or harlot is one who has grown up following an evil path and being taught evil things as normal. Of course they can learn to repent and turn towards God, but that is not the point in this passage. The point is that we should not mourn so much the passing of the righteous. Things will go well for them. However, the unrighteous will receive the wrath of God. There is nothing wrong with mourning the passing of a righteous person, even more so the Son of God. However, that is not the end for The Righteous One and those who have believed on Him. They will be exalted by the Father and given all things. However, the wicked will be taken in hand by the wrath of God and find their place in the Lake of Fire. Do we weep over the coming judgment of the Lost? God does.
Next we see that Jesus is crucified in public shame. The place where Jesus is to be crucified is called the Place of the Skull. The Latin is Calvaria (where we get Calvary), the Greek is Kranion (think cranium), the Aramaic is Golgatha. All of these different terms are pointing to the same thing that will happen. A human's head that represents the essence of the person's identity is going to be turned into a skull. It is a place that reeks with death and the Devil's power. As a lord of death, the Devil feels that he has won, but in truth it is about to become the public shame of the devil and his angels that is highlighted before the world. Jesus is crucified in a vile way and hanging between two other vile offenders, as if he was the worst of them. It is as if the Devil is daring anyone to choose to be on the side of such a man. Everyone is going to have to choose sides. You are either with the great men and rulers of this world, or you are with the lowly Jesus. Will you let go of the pomp, power, and pride of this world and embrace the public shame of Jesus? If you do your future will be eternal life. The other choice leads to destruction and shame.
In this context the next words of our Lord seem impossible. "Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they do." The Lord demonstrates that he practices what he preaches. They speak death and execution to him, but he speaks love and forgiveness towards them. Thus Jesus displays perfect righteousness. As he taught in Luke 6, "Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who abuse you. To one who strikes you on the cheek, offer the other also." It is hard to accept such words at face value. However, when people do accept them, they usually do in the hopes that such actions will win them over. In fact, this argument is used against the West in regard to Islam. If we loved them more, then they wouldn't pick up weapons and bombs. They wouldn't hate us so much. At the cross, such trite is proven a fairy tale. Jesus loved those who were killing him, not because he hoped they would stop, but because he knew they wouldn't. Jesus will die and his enemies will live on. Yet, he still offers them righteousness. He basically makes the case for manslaughter to the Father. They don't realize that they are offending the God of heaven and heaping up judgment against themselves.
So what was God's answer? Well, for 40 years following the crucifixion, God sent the apostles of Jesus to minister with miracles and the truth. They offered their fellow Israelites forgiveness in the name of Jesus; "whosoever would" could have it. Yet, ultimately the answer is this, "If they will turn from their sins and put their faith in Jesus, then I will forgive them completely." This is the grace and love of our Lord.


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A chemical firm has been fined £120,000 after an employee sustained severe burns when he was engulfed by a fireball at a factory in Wirral.
The 45-year-old from Kirkby was kept in an induced coma for seven weeks following a chemical explosion at SAFC Hitech Limited's plant in Bromborough on 28 February last year.
The company was prosecuted by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) following an investigation into the incident, which left the employee with burns to his face, right arm and upper body.
Liverpool Crown Court heard (on 29 April 2013) that the company had been manufacturing a chemical called trimethylindium, or TMI, which is used during the production of LEDs and in the semi-conductor industry.
Waste from the purification process had been left on a bench to deactivate in an unsealed glass bottle, despite being explosive if it is exposed to air or water.
Shortly after starting his shift, the worker entered the waste deactivation area and the waste in the glass bottle exploded, sending shards of glass across the yard. He does not remember the incident but one of his colleagues reported seeing him running around in a ball of flames.
The employee was taken to a specialist burns unit and induced into a coma. He was kept in hospital for almost three months, and still has extensive scars and difficulty moving.
SAFC Hitech Ltd. pleaded guilty to single breaches of the Dangerous Substances and Explosive Atmospheres Regulations 2002 and the Health and Safety at Work etc. Act 1974.
The charges relate to failing to carry out a suitable risk assessment for dealing with the waste produced by the TMI purification process, failings in supervision and monitoring, and failing to ensure the safety of employees.
The company, of Power Road in Bromborough, was fined a total of £120,000 and ordered to pay £13,328 towards the cost of the prosecution.


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Shingled roofs can be aesthetically stunning and they can have a number of other benefits, too. For instance, shingles can help make your home more waterproof by allowing rainwater and moisture to run off more efficiently. Plus, shingled roofs can be incredibly durable. However, if your home has been through a major storm or if you have large trees that brush against your property, you may have broken or damaged shingles. When it comes down to it, you'll want to fix roof shingles sooner rather than later, because it could become a major problem down the line. For one thing, broken or missing shingles can be a recipe for a leak. Here are some easy roof shingle repair tips.
Gather all the materials you need and head to the roof. Before you head to your roof, you want to make sure that you have all the materials you need. The last thing you want is to head up there and then realize you forgot something. Ideally, you will need heavy gloves, a hammer, a crowbar, and your new shingles.
Make sure that you have a sturdy ladder. Also, you will need to find a sturdy ladder so that you can safely get to your roof. You can either rent a ladder or purchase a ladder from a home supply shop. Ideally, you want to find a ladder that has rubberized stoppers on the feet and other safety features. The last thing you want is to fall when you are climbing to your roof with a bunch of potentially dangerous tools.
Use the crowbar to pry off the old or broken shingles. When you are on your roof, you want to be sure to remove the old and rotting shingles. You can do this by using the crowbar to pry the broken shingles out of place. In most cases, these shingles will be held down by long roofing nails, so it will take a little patience and elbow grease to get the nails completely out. When you are prying shingles out, you want to be sure that you don't damage other shingles that may be in perfect condition.
Slide the new shingle into place and nail it shut. Once you get the broken shingle out, you can then slide the new shingle in. You can do this by carefully sliding the shingle into place – it should slide in nicely. Once the shingle is in, you can then nail it into place. Ideally, you want to use thick roofing nails, because these will allow the shingle to stay in place for much longer – smaller nails may come out of place in only a few months.
Place a new sealant strip behind the new shingles. Once you have the new shingles in, you can then place a sealant strip behind the new shingle. When it comes down to it, weatherproofing is very important, because it will prevent leaks and flooding. It may even be smart to hire a company like Heritage Roofing & Waterproofing Inc. to fully seal your roof. In the end, the cost of fixing a water damaged roof and home will be far greater than fixing shingles and sealing your roof.


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This was our third 'Wave Of Light' that we had been part of with the first two being held to remember our baby that we lost to a ruptured ectopic pregnancy in 2015. This year was not only to remember that baby but also now Dexter Bear, our beautiful son who was stillborn at 24 weeks gestation (anyone else hate that word?) I remember watching the candles glowing thinking 'a candle, a hovering flame, it doesn't feel quite enough to compensate for the loss of our son'.
My lovely friend Bekkie (@bekkie_and_her_rainbows for any IG people) has unfortunately suffered multiple, recurrent miscarriages and we both thought that we would like to do something as a way to remember not only our own lost babies but also those of others. Since losing Dexter I have found so many other women and families who have lost children, not just in pregnancy but also infants too. It breaks my heart that the reason that I know these women is because of our common theme; the loss of a child or children, yet, as truly devastating as that is I am so thankful that I have had their support. I know many people might not 'get it', I mean how can you be 'friends' with people that you have never even met or spoken a word to? People that live in the tiny squares in your phone? I was probably guilty of thinking that at some point these past few years but honestly, I couldn't have got through the past few months without them. People who well and truly get. The sadness. The hurt. The guilt. The pain. The anger. The heartbreak. The desperation. The longing. That is why Bekkie and I felt it was so important to remember these beautiful babies and their families that have touched and enriched our lives.
We decided to visit Fountains Abbey which is a place that we both absolutely adore. We are both National Trust members (geeks I know) but this is one of my all time favourite NT places to visit and thought it would be the perfect spot to remember our babies. The plan was hatched, we bought the pre-lit tea lights and we set off to find our perfect location. We wanted somewhere quite dark as we were there late afternoon so it was still light. Fountains Abbey is a beautiful old monastic ruin, very eerie but beautiful. We firstly placed the candles on the edge of one of the ruins but as it was still light it wasn't as effective, however we still loved the window in the background of this photo.
We found a dark space in one of the ruins and placed the candles down in a heart, all the love poured into these babies that we have lost. We thought about each and every one of you that has experienced such heartache and this was for you.
We wanted to create Dexter's name in candles and light some other very special candles we have been gifted as a way of remembering other lost babies so here they are; Dexter, our ectopic angel and everyone else's babies and children that we have come across. The world lit up for that hour and it was so very special.
At first, I was completely overwhelmed, the end of the week culminating in this beautiful show of light. Having to light candles to remind ourselves that we had a lost a baby, two babies that were so desperately wanted and loved…it broke my heart. I sat shaking in tears, engulfed in sadness at the loss of our babies and overwhelmed with the raw grief of losing Dexter. I cried and cried and cried, not only for our babies but for all those babies and children that were lost too soon – all those families doing exactly the same as us, lighting candles to show the world that those beautiful lives were thought of, loved and so dearly missed. Once the overwhelming flood had subsided I was able to see the beauty in what we were all doing. We were honouring our babies and children, we were showing the world that their lives mattered, we were showing the world that we were parents and this is one of the ways we would parent our children that were no longer here. Parenting Dexter for me is so important and yet so very difficult. I'll never have the opportunity to feed him, change his nappy, push him in his pram or bankrupt myself at the Next sale buying him things. But what I can do is say his name, talk about him and light a candle for him and all his buddies. That's what parents do right? Talk about their children, think of them always and do their very best to do what's right by their children.
What followed in the Wave Of Light absolutely filled my heart with so much joy. Dave and I were both inundated with messages of love, support and candles that had been lit as people thought of Dexter Bear and our ectopic baby. To know people are thinking of our babies and Dave and I is such a heartwarming feeling, we feel so lucky that people would take the time to think about us. I so wish Dexter could have been here to feel all this love, warmth and kindness but I know whichever shiny star he is sat on he was able to see the wave of light for him. He has changed our life in so many ways but I am so thankful everyday that he was part of my life for 24 weeks. After two very traumatic years following our ectopic pregnancy, being pregnant with him was the best few months of my life and I will forever be grateful to him for giving me and his daddy that. I am also incredibly proud that (hopefully) one day he will be able to earn the title of 'big brother' and what a title to hold, one he well and truly deserves.
Thank you to each and every one of you for thinking about our babies, especially our beautiful son Dexter – it never goes unnoticed and we will forever be appreciative.
LOL @ people who live in tiny squares in your phone! I love visiting your tiny square. 🙂 And I was very impressed by your candles spelling out Dexter's name! When I saw that on Sunday, I thought, "that's lovely, but if I tried that, I would most certainly burn the house down." Haha. I hope you and Dave have a good weekend!


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The first one I saw was online. Just a picture. I read a story about the man who built it, and I looked at the paint, the welds, the straight-gauge tubing. Pegoretti. It seemed too old-school, too pretty, too artsy to really use. I wanted one to hang on my wall. As art.
Then I saw one in person at Chad's shop, Above Category. This was a year and a half ago. He had about 2 dozen of them lined up along the wall. They were incredible! I decided to buy one; a Columbus 7005 aluminum 8:30am, 59cm. I planned on using it for social rides, thinking it couldn't possibly compete with the featherweight carbon race frame I was on at the time. A few months later, in December, my mass-market race frame had developed numerous cracks and in need of a bike for training I swapped all of my campy components over to the brand new Pegoretti. The first ride was a revelation. I never looked back. And now, after close to 9,000 miles on my 8:30am, I can say with conviction that I'm a true believer.
Of course I had some mishaps. The unthinkable happened, and then happened again. I crashed my Pegoretti a few times over the season but it kept on delivering. Above, my rear derailleur shows some wear from a slide in Stage 4 of the Mt Hood Classic.
I started with a pair of Chorus shifters. I wore through one, and then crashed the other, and replaced them with what I had on hand.
The bike as I raced it (usually with Reynolds DV46 Tubulars), weighed about 16.75 pounds, including an SRM powermeter. In training, depending on wheels and extras, it weighed 17.5-18.5 pounds. I won my first two road races of the season on it. Any doubts about an aluminum Pegoretti's viability for competition were officially demolished. The first one was a solo breakaway, and for the fifteen minutes between launching my attack and crossing the finish line, I thought a lot about this man Dario who had poured so much love and expertise into the frame I was rocketing towards my first California victory. It was an inspiration, to say the least. I've since had the pleasure to get to know him on a couple of occasions, and my respect for him has grown with every meeting. Coming in for the win at Snelling Road Race in February, 2008, on my Pegoretti 8:30am.


text:
Q: Seeking feedback on the interpretation and reporting of a glmm output This might be a very beginner level question. I have fitted a model with glmmTMB R package, considering the interactive effect of mean wind speed and average daily rain as well as an interactive effect of mean temperature and mean relative humidity on plant disease severity. Here is my fitted model
mod1 <-
  glmmTMB(disease_severity ~ mean_rh * mean_temp + mean_ws * avg_daily_rain + (1|year),
          family = beta_family(), data = dat_seasonal)

summary(mod1)

Here is the model output.
Formula:          disease_severity ~ mean_rh * mean_temp + mean_ws * avg_daily_rain +
    (1 | year)
Data: dat_seasonal

     AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid
   -41.9    -27.4     29.9    -59.9       28

Random effects:

Conditional model:
 Groups Name        Variance Std.Dev.
 year   (Intercept) 0.7874   0.8874
Number of obs: 37, groups:  year, 11

Dispersion parameter for beta family (): 7.03

Conditional model:
                        Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept)            -336.9044   151.8930  -2.218   0.0266 *
mean_rh                   4.3731     1.9177   2.280   0.0226 *
mean_temp                22.8305     9.9872   2.286   0.0223 *
mean_ws                 -19.8944    11.1741  -1.780   0.0750 .
avg_daily_rain           -3.7751     2.5388  -1.487   0.1370
mean_rh:mean_temp        -0.2854     0.1258  -2.269   0.0232 *
mean_ws:avg_daily_rain    5.0808     2.3155   2.194   0.0282 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

For reporting,
I would like to report my model results. Can I say that the predictors mean_rh and mean_temp had a significant positive effect individual effect (effect on their own). The predictors mean_ws and avg_daily_rain had no significant effect on their own? There was a signficant negative interaction effect of mean_rh & mean_temp as well as a significant positive interaction effect of mean_ws and avg_daily_rain.
For plotting,
I just need to plot interactive terms of my model. Plotting individual effects alone would be misleading. For example, if I'm using ggeffects package.
Figure 1 <- plot(ggpredict(mod1, c("mean_rh", "mean_temp"))) +
  theme_pubclean() +
  labs(x = "Mean relative humidity", title = "")

Figure 2 <- plot(ggpredict(mod1, c("mean_ws", "avg_daily_rain"))) +
  theme_pubclean() +
  labs(x = "Mean wind speed", title = "")

In summary, it's okay to report individual as well as interactive effects (main & interaction effect). But it is NOT okay to plot main effects alone in my case. Is that right?
Edit:
Thank you very much for the feedback @EdM. I am editing the question based on the test you suggested, so all can benefit. I ran car::Anova(mod1) on my model and I got the following output.
Analysis of Deviance Table (Type II Wald chisquare tests)

Response: disease_severity
                        Chisq Df Pr(>Chisq)
mean_rh                0.0535  1   0.817057
mean_temp              0.2366  1   0.626650
mean_ws                1.1419  1   0.285252
avg_daily_rain         9.8801  1   0.001671 **
mean_rh:mean_temp      5.1498  1   0.023249 *
mean_ws:avg_daily_rain 4.8148  1   0.028217 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

This output suggest significant interaction effect of the interactive terms as shown in the original model above. However, it doesn't give a positive or a negative sign, but I assume there is a significant negative interaction effect of mean_rh:mean_temp and a significant positive effect of mean_ws:avg_daily_rain as shown in the original model above? So if need to report this, I'd report that there was a positive main effect of avg_daily_rain and significant interaction effect of mean_rh:mean_temp & mean_ws:avg_daily_rain. Is that right?
Regarding overfitting, I fitted the same model (but excluded random effect of year) using beta regression as shown below.
mod2 <-
  betareg(disease_severity ~ mean_rh * mean_temp + mean_ws * avg_daily_rain,
          data = dat_seasonal)

summary(mod2)

The output of interactive effects is the same as mod1 (above model with random effect)
Call:
betareg(formula = disease_severity ~ mean_rh * mean_temp + mean_ws * avg_daily_rain,
    data = dat_seasonal)

Standardized weighted residuals 2:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max
-1.8117 -0.9641 -0.0679  0.9726  1.8027

Coefficients (mean model with logit link):
                         Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept)            -439.66169   87.71840  -5.012 5.38e-07 ***
mean_rh                   5.65518    1.11886   5.054 4.32e-07 ***
mean_temp                29.66389    5.84693   5.073 3.91e-07 ***
mean_ws                 -23.39753    6.14241  -3.809 0.000139 ***
avg_daily_rain           -4.89648    1.40426  -3.487 0.000489 ***
mean_rh:mean_temp        -0.36917    0.07362  -5.015 5.31e-07 ***
mean_ws:avg_daily_rain    6.39018    1.31982   4.842 1.29e-06 ***

Phi coefficients (precision model with identity link):
      Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(phi)   3.7717     0.8953   4.213 2.52e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Type of estimator: ML (maximum likelihood)
Log-likelihood: 24.96 on 8 Df
Pseudo R-squared: 0.5381
Number of iterations: 358 (BFGS) + 56 (Fisher scoring)

When I ran car::Anova(mod2). I got the following output
Analysis of Deviance Table (Type II tests)

Response: disease_severity
                       Df   Chisq Pr(>Chisq)
mean_rh                 1  0.5807   0.446035
mean_temp               1  3.7047   0.054259 .
mean_ws                 1  9.0713   0.002597 **
avg_daily_rain          1 32.5315  1.173e-08 ***
mean_rh:mean_temp       1 25.1495  5.305e-07 ***
mean_ws:avg_daily_rain  1 23.4420  1.287e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

I'm happy to use the second model if ignoring year is not an issue, and increases the reliability of results. Interaction effects are the same in both models, but wind speed became significant too after running car::anova on the second model. The study was conducted in 11 years.

A:
Can I say that the predictors mean_rh and mean_temp had a significant positive effect individual effect (effect on their own). The predictors mean_ws and avg_daily_rain had no significant effect on their own?

NO.
This is a common misinterpretation of the coefficients reported by linear modeling software when there are interactions. With continuous predictors, an individual coefficient represents the association with outcome when all its interacting predictors are at a value of 0. At least, you need to qualify your claims about "significance" accordingly.
More thoroughly, you need to evaluate each predictor including all of its interactions, plus evaluate the interactions. The default Type II analysis used by the Anova() function of the car package is a good choice for that. This vignette shows that car::Anova() works on this type of model. You should also look at the other methods in that vignette for documenting model adequacy. This answer illustrates some of that for a beta model with glmmTMB.
With interactions it's usually best to display model predictions at useful values of the covariates. I don't use the ggeffects package. Make sure that the ranges of all covariate values used for the displays make sense.
You have an additional issue to deal with: you are at risk of severely over-fitting your data with this model. As a rule of thumb, you need about 15 observations per coefficient (beyond the intercept) to avoid overfitting. It appears that you are trying to estimate 6 such coefficients plus a random-effect variance based on 37 observations. If I understand the software correctly, the coefficients are in a logit (log-odds) scale. Some of the coefficients look very large on that scale, which might be a sign of overfitting (although the magnitudes of coefficients depend on the scales of the predictors and can be misleading with interactions as you have here).

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
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text:
Why Christians are Facing Heavy Persecution in India
Church Resources India persecuted church
"Targeted violence and hate crimes against the Christian community in India continued unabated in 2018."
This grievous, straightforward statement opened the 2018 Violence Against Christians in India Report, which recorded 325 incidents of Christians being "targeted using violence, intimidation, or harassment." The report, published by the Religious Liberty Commission of the Evangelical Fellowship of India, also detailed a spike in violence in India's most populous province, Uttar Pradesh.
While violence against Indian Christians is not new, it is on the rise according to the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, the commission ranked India's persecution severity at "Tier 2" along with Iraq and Afghanistan. Over the past seven years, India has risen from 31 to 10 on Open Doors' World Watch List, ranking just behind Iran in persecution severity.
But according to India's census data, only 2.3% of India's 1.3 billion people are Christians (almost 30 million). Unofficial estimates place the percentage of Christians higher at almost 5%, or 64 million. Given the relatively small percentage of Christians, why is there so much violence perpetrated against followers of Christ? Why do they provoke such violent reaction from religious extremists?
Why the Christian minority is so persecuted
Quite simply, it is all about politics, religion, and national identity.
Christianity is India's second-largest minority religion after Islam. According to Indian tradition, the Christian faith was introduced to India by Thomas the Apostle, who may have reached the Malabar Coast in the southwestern state of Kerala in 52 A.D.
In an interview with The Wire, Dr. Matthew Rees of Open Doors said that the rise in violence against Christians is being driven by the "toxic narrative around this idea of the connection of Hinduism and being Indian." Dr. Rees added that this narrative is not just coming "from the extreme end of the [Hindu nationalist] RSS movement, but is also creeping into the language of the elected politicians and officials."
In 2010 Ram Nath Kovind, now the president of India, described Christians and Muslims as "alien to the nation."
"When influential people use this language," Rees told The Wire, "it filters down to the rest of society, and we think that is playing a big part in the mob violence and social ostracism."
India is an intricate tapestry of ethnicities, castes, languages, cultures, and religions. Religion has played an extremely important role in the shaping of Indian identity since the 1947 partition of the subcontinent along religious lines into the modern states of India and Pakistan.
"Hindu-ness"
What is more recent is the rise of Hindutva, loosely translated as "Hindu-ness," as the political creed of the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Hindutva is a political vision of an Indian identity which has no place for any religion other than Hinduism.
According to Jonah Blank, writing for the Atlantic, "Hindutva is not about what your eyes tell you; it's about what your heart tells you. It's not about what you see; it's about how you see yourself. How you see your identity, your brand, your place in the world. Understand this, and you can better understand the changes under way in India."
Even though the rise of extremist Hindutva has created a toxic environment for Christians and the closure of many worship venues, the church in India continues to adapt and grow. According to Indian pastor Surendra Kumar, quoted in a March 2019 article in Newsweek, the closures have actually resulted in more people coming to faith in Jesus.
"The closure of large fellowships has given birth to many smaller ones," Kumar said. "We are able to evangelize in areas we were not visiting before, and the same is bringing growth."
"And I tell you … I will build my church, and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it." – Matthew 16:18
Persecution is rising, but so is the church. Support fruitful local ministries in persecuted countries like India.
by Eric Vess
Support Causes in South Asia
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This teenage phase is exciting and enraging all at once, isn't it? The increased independence is great. The desire to assert their own views and desires is also fascinating. However, the lack of engaging conversation at the day's end is one component I'm not loving so much.
I'm big on communication. It's the foundation of my work. I'm also big on details so it's normal for me to ask my children how their day was, if they learned anything captivating, who they hung out with, etc. I don't pummel them daily with all these questions, but I like to participate in friendly conversations that, in my mind, show I'm interested in their lives.
My teenage son thinks I'm the head of the Spanish Inquisition, recently suggesting that his reason for giving monosyllabic answers is that I ask too many questions. He's right. I do. But how do I get something out of him, other than a grunt, if I don't ask questions? Surely, he's too old for me to say, "use your words"!
Nick Duigan is a Senior Clinical Advisor at headspace National Youth Mental Health Foundation, he says "a grunt, deflection or disengagement can mean lots of things. It might mean: 'I don't have the words to describe how I'm feeling'. This is very common. Young people are often building their emotional vocabulary and literacy, as well as their capacity to share this with others. The process of sharing deep emotions that may be new, is incredibly confronting. Questioning somebody when they might not know how to respond can be experienced as confronting. One way to end the conversation is to grunt or avoid."
The grunt could mean a myriad of other things too: they had something happen at school they don't want to talk about, they're annoyed because you said something they didn't like, they're worried about an upcoming assignment, they're bored, they don't want to talk right now, they're zoning out and sick of answering questions about school, or a grunt could mean absolutely nothing at all!
So, how do we engage our teenagers without making them feel interrogated?
Rather than a one-way demand for information, Nick recommends sharing stories from your day, or funny and interesting things that are happening in the world. These give a young person the chance to "join in the conversation as an equal rather than be asked to disclose information about themselves."
Put some interesting articles in the bathroom or on the kitchen bench that might be read any time. These articles might be around hobbies, or on relationships in some way.
Psychologist Raymond Dalton and the team from Green Life Psychology are also experienced with adolescents who can be challenging to engage. Raymond reminds us that teenhood is like a second toddlerhood. "There is hormone change, growth, peer relationships (or for some, peer survival), new expectations from parents…" With this in mind, we need to approach our teens with compassion and patience. He recommends talking while doing an activity together, or while in the car. "Try and make it nonthreatening and supportive."
Raymond adds that when there's important topics to discuss, "it can be better to come back to things instead of trying to talk about it when it is happening. 'Earlier you said…' or 'yesterday when you came home…'"
It's just as imperative to be aware of the non-verbal cues. Raymond suggests we try noticing as much as we can about their regular behaviours and emotions - and any changes to these - without always asking, "Is everything okay?"
I'm getting the impression that lowering my standards of conversation while my teens navigate their way through the murky waters of adolescence could be helpful.
"Don't take the ten-foot platform and dive for conversation gold. Especially if it's been a while between swims. Sometimes little bits and pieces work best. It can also set you up for later conversation. Things like, 'Oh that sounds like the same crap that Bob would pull'. Little things can make them feel like you get it," Raymond says.
Trust, understanding and honesty are the keys to open channels of communication with our teenagers. And as Nick reiterates, "Let them know that you love them. They may not always admit it but this is likely to be very important to them."
Read more tips and suggestions at headspace.


Nineteen-year-old British singer-songwriter Jake Bugg stood in front of a sold out crowd at the Fillmore on September 29.
Bugg commonly lists his influences as Johnny Cash, Jimi Hendrix, Oasis, Donovan and The Everly Brothers, arguably some of the hardest names to live up to. Bugg is making a name for himself as an old soul, a British folk singer inspired by the greats of country, folk, and rock.
"I'm just a normal 19-year-old that plays a couple songs," Bugg told Rolling Stone earlier this year. As much as he may believe that to be true, his loyal fanbase sees him in a different light.
Hoards of fans aging from early teens to late twenties began to line up outside of the Fillmore five hours before venue doors open. The syndrome is commonly known as "Buggmania." It might seem crazy, but theres a lot to be admired of this young singer. Rolling stone named him the "Best Singer-Songwriter Born in the Nineties," and it's not too hard to see why.
A 5'5 scrawny boy in a blue button down and jeans walks out on the stage. Greeted by hundreds of clapping hands and shrieks he keeps his eyes focused on the ground and his lips tilted downward. Bugg opens with the acoustic love song, fire. It's one of the tenderest tracks off of Bugg's debut album, with lyrics, "Oh I'll sing for you my girl, baby blue. Babe, oh Babe will you love me so? When I'm to go." His heavy nottingham accent and boyish features only add to his effortless charm.
Later in the set he performed three new songs off of his second studio album "Shangri La" which is due to be released November 18. Bugg's new album keeps his unique folk sound, but adds faster beats and a more electric feel. "What doesn't Kill You" was recently released as the first single for his new album. He recites the lyrics at an almost inaudible pace, all the time keeping his same downward cast straight face.
Other notable songs in his set included the fan-favorite "Seen it All," the two verse love serenade "Country song," and Bugg's childhood narrative "Seen it All." The nasal, deep voice is hard to match with such a young face, but it perfectly matches with his nostalgic lyrics.
Bugg certainly saved the best for last. To the relief of the crowd, he returned for a much needed encore. He introduced his next song as "one of his favorite songs, a song by Neil Young." He then proceeded in a downright incredible cover of "Hey, Hey, My, My." Beginning slowly and slightly letting go of his heavy accent to mimic the sounds of Young. Bugg eventually broke out into a full fledged electric guitar solo, spurring the loudest cheers of the night and adding his own twist on the classic. No one can be the greats, but if any one can do them justice today it's Jake Bugg.
He closed the show with his chart-topping single "Lightning Bolt." The largest flaw of his performance was his lack of emotion. It wasn't until this last song that Bugg let a full smile cross his face. When he finally let go, the crowd did as well, dancing and singing, filling the Fillmore with the sound it deserved.
Bugg is still young and certainly possess a talent far beyond his years. "I play music because I love it and I'll keep playin' till I'm old," Bugg said at Glastonbury this year. We can expect a lot from Bugg in the near future. His second studio album is out next month, and you can catch him at the Fox Theater in Oakland this January.


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