The Jupiter 2 XCR is a short style boot that is suitable for riding, yet comfortable off the bike as well.
It has a quality design and solid construction, and would make a good choice as a commuting or casual riding boot.
Italian boot manufacturer TCX, formerly known as Oxtar, produces the Jupiter 2 XCR motorcycle riding boot as part of their "All Uses" line of boots.
It's a mid-priced, short style riding boot, intended to provide riding features while remaining comfortable enough to wear for long periods off the bike.
For me personally, the major appeal of dual purpose boots such as these is as a potential commuting boot.
With almost any product category, a move away from specialization toward a multi-purpose role brings compromises.
For a boot intended to be useful for on and off bike wear, the compromise lies in the reduced potential for protection as compared to specialized riding boots.
But for riders like me who want versatility in a boot for commuting or around town use, a short style boot might be the solution. Such a design might also convince a sneaker-wearing rider to move up to something more protective.
The upper of the TCX Jupiter 2 XCR is made mostly of black suede, with small black mesh panels along the sides and vented portions over the ankles.
The sole is described by TCX as a "touring sole, oil and petrol resistant".
The inner lining is "XCR" (Extended Comfort Range) Gore-Tex. This latest version of Gore-Tex is said to be 25% more breathable than previous versions.
Motorcycle-specific features include an integrated shifter pad on top and a hook-and-loop strap to secure the laces against flopping around and getting caught on the shifter, pegs, or other protrusions.
Also, there's an integral heel reinforcement, a reinforced toe, and reflective patches along the rear. The back of the heel is cut lower for increased flexibility while shifting or walking.
Upon removing these boots from the box, it is apparent that the quality of workmanship is high. Seams are precise; the stitching looks good; and the construction feels solid.
On close inspection, I was able to find a couple of stitch terminations that look a bit chaotic, and it looks as though adhesive was somewhat over-applied around the sole/upper joint.
Other than that, I could find nothing to be critical of.
Boot length seems accurate, though it is intended for a wide foot. My feet are somewhat narrow, so I have added insoles to make them more snug.
Each boot weighs 737 grams (1 lb. 10.0 oz.), and is 210 mm (8.25″) tall when measured to the highest point next to the ankles.
The TCX Jupiter 2 XCR boots have an attractive, hybrid look. At a glance, they look like quality casual street shoes, but at the same time the somewhat pointy toes are a bit boot-like.
The integrated shift pad is mirrored on the right boot as well as the left, and to the non-rider they could appear as a trendy cosmetic touch.
There's also a swath of the same material as the shifter pad on the outer front of each boot, with a bright red rubber "TCX" decal to add a splash of color to the otherwise all black boot.
I like the overall appearance, and while they won't pass for dress shoes, they could be nice looking enough to wear in some office environments.
So these boots are well made and they look good — but how do they feel?
Well, I've found the TCX Jupiter boots to be quite comfortable and I enjoy wearing them.
Unlike some of the other short style riding boots I have tried on, the integral riding and protective features in the Jupiter 2 XCR boots do not detract from comfort.
They offer good support to the feet, and they have the right flexibility to make them easy to wear for walking.
Wearing them at work leaves my feet feeling fine at day's end, with or without insoles. There's not much else to say on this subject: the boots have a quality feel, and are suitable for all-day use.
Getting the Jupiter 2 XCR on and off the foot is easy, which is a great help for commuting when I need to change into other shoes upon arrival at the office.
The tongue lifts out to form a large opening for the foot, a good lace retention design tightens and loosens with a single tug, and the low cut heel area helps the foot get in and out almost as easily as with a pair of sneakers.
Initially, I found the lace retention strap to be something of an obstacle while putting the boots on.
However, once I figured out that it can be held out of the way with the other leg while tying the laces, this was no longer an issue. I believe it would be difficult to find a laced pair of boots that can be put on and removed more quickly.
The only negative characteristic I have noticed in wearing these boots is that off the bike, they can at times feel a little warm; the black suede and sole material absorb and retain heat pretty well.
It can be noticed in moderate temperatures, though it's not to the point of being uncomfortable.
However, when the temperatures reach the upper-80s+ (F) for extended periods, they can start to feel hot. The mesh and vents help to some extent, but they need air flow to do their jobs effectively.
While certainly not up to the standards of full featured touring boots, the Jupiter 2 XCR represents a significant step up in foot and ankle safety over normal shoes.
The toe and heel provide impact protection, and the suede used throughout much of the upper will guard against road rash.
The ankle is protected and supported by fairly substantial padding, though there are no plastic inserts over the ankle bones as some other short style boots have; this may have been a design decision intended to maximize walking flexibility.
The boots have good grip on road surfaces. As long as the tread lasts, foot slippage should not be an issue when stopped or when pushing a bike around.
I poured some water on an oily patch under a car's parking spot, then tried to slide my boots around on it. The soles gripped well; I had to work to make the boots slip.
As mentioned previously, the boots seem to retain heat in warm weather walking. Give them some airflow, however, and they begin to shine.
The XCR Gore-Tex inner lining and the mesh panels work well together, removing moisture and letting the feet breathe.
This keeps socks and feet dry, and also has a cooling effect. The TCX Jupiter 2 XCRs do a fine job of handling hot weather riding.
TCX literature suggests that the XCR Gore-Tex also serves as an insulator for use in colder conditions, but I have not had opportunity to put this to the test.
There's not much rain this time of year, so I ran some tests to get a better idea how the boots would do when the going gets wet.
To check if the boots are waterproof, I put them on under riding pants, then had an assistant shower them with direct spray from a garden hose for several minutes.
Afterward, I found that one of my socks was completely dry, while the other had only a small, slightly damp spot on the ball of the foot. The tops and sides of my socks were completely dry, which testifies to the effectiveness of the XCR Gore-Tex lining.
As a final test, I immersed them in a tub of water for 3 minutes. Both boots allowed some water into the foot area; the worst of the two had about a tablespoon.
So the Jupiter 2 XCR boots are not completely watertight; I believe the joint between the upper and the sole is the source of the slight leaks in my tests.
Given what it took to get water into the innards, though, arriving at my destination with wet feet is not something I'll be worried about, as long as my pant legs can keep water from flowing in over the top of the ankles.
Having worn these boots for the past twelve weeks on every ride to the office, as well as on a few pleasure rides, I've found that I really like the TXC Jupiter 2 XCR boots.
They do a good job of providing me different options; I can leave them on all day and be as well or better off compared to normal shoes, or I can change into something else quickly and with minimal hassle.
What we have here is a well made short riding boot that is comfortable for all day use, goes on and comes off easy, walks well, looks sharp, and has good, though not excellent, water repulsion.
The TCX Jupiter 2 XCR belongs on the short list of any rider searching for a set of riding footwear for commuting or casual use.
From "D.L." (7/09): "I bought the TCX Jupiter 2 XCR Motorcycle Boots a few months ago and have been wearing them on weekend rides until last week, when I went on a 1,200 mile trip in 4 days of riding mostly back roads on my Triumph Sprint ST.
What I like about these boots is they are very comfortable both on the bike and walking around, even in warmer weather.
It rained a few times during the trip, with one period lasting 3 hours, at times very heavy rain.
From "J.D.B." (8/08): "I had a pair of the original Oxtar Jupiter boots on when I tangled with a guard rail last year and totaled my bike.
I low-sided under the guard rail and my left boot was smashed between the rail, foot peg and motorcycle frame.
While the foot swelled up quite a bit and I was limping for a week or so, there were no broken bones and no real damage to the foot.
The boots did their job and are still in decent shape. I replaced them with a pair of Jupiter 2s and am happy with them as well.
Both versions of the boot have kept my feet dry in the rain and are quite comfortable.
Comparing the two boots side-by-side, they are basically identical, save for cosmetic finishing and the Jupiter 2s have Gore-tex XCR whereas the older boots had an older version of Gore-Tex.


Book now on our website!Best price guaranteed!!
Away from the city, away from the artifices of modernity, Poggio al Vento is surrounded by oak and holm oak forests and is the ideal place to rediscover the beauty of the countryside.
Poggio al Vento, secluded, overlooking the Fiora Valley, is perfectly located for walks in the nearby Mediterranean scrublands, where you can enjoy the shade of its ancient oaks while you cook outdoors.
Here you'll find a beautifully preserved landscape, a range of tones and shades that create a unique countryside.
The farm covers a hilly area of 80 hectares and is family-run.
We cultivate cereals and legumes suitable for feeding our sheep. Our guests come here to enjoy the good taste of the old and rustic, which is becoming increasingly rare.
If you come in the autumn, you can help out with the olive harvest.
And to the delight of your children, we have many farm animals.


Medical malpractice cases involve allegations that a health care provider violated the governing standard of care while treating a patient, resulting in an injury to the patient. The harm from medical malpractice can result from either an action taken by the health care provider, or by omission, the failure to take a medically appropriate action.
A medical malpractice case may be pursued by an injured patient against any licensed health care provider, including a medical doctor, nurse, physical therapist, and mental health care professional.
Mistakes in the prescription or dosing of medication.
Medical malpractice cases may also result from the assertion that a patient did not give informed consent for a medical procedure, with the patient alleging that the procedure involved a material risk that was not properly disclosed by the physician, and that the patient would not have agreed to the procedure had the patient been aware of the risk. The proper performance of a medical procedure is not a defense to an informed consent action. While an informed consent case can potentially be based on an allegation of battery, in general the allegation will be that the outcome of the medical treatment was different than it would have been had the patient been able to make an informed choice.
Informed consent claims can also arise based upon changes to a course of treatment or surgery made after consent was given. In some contexts obtaining the patient's consent is not necessary, For example, in trauma care or cases involving a patient with a mental health problem it may not be possible to obtain consent prior to the commencement of medical treatment, or consent must be obtained from a third party such as a guardian, spouse or parent.
Damages in medical malpractice cases normally take the form of economic damages such as wage loss, the cost of medical care, and other out-of-pocket expenses, and non-economic damages for pain and suffering resulting from the injury. In rare cases, the level of misconduct may rise to the level that a victim of malpractice can recover punitive damages against the defendant.
Some states limit the amount of money that a person injured by medical malpractice can recover as compensation for non-economic damages. In Virginia, the total amount recoverable in a medical malpractice action, including both non-economic (pain and suffering) and economic (out-of-pocket financial costs) damages, is capped by statute, without regard to the severity of a patient's injuries, based upon the date of the act or occurrence underlying the claim. For claims that arise between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016, the cap is $2.15 million. For claims arising between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, the cap is $2.25 million. The cap increases on an annual basis through June 20, 2031, after which the cap is fixed by statute at $3 million.
When more than one defendant is sued, under joint and several liability each defendant may be required to pay the full amount of the verdict. This policy, followed in Virginia, helps ensure that a malpractice victim will be fully compensated even if one of the defendants has insufficient funds or insurance. Vermont also permits separate actions against joint wrongdoers, such that an injured party may successively sue joint wrongdoers until judgment has been rendered against or the cause is otherwise disposed of in relation to all wrongdoers. No bar exists against a further action by reason of a judgment against another joint wrongdoer, until the judgment has been satisfied.
Under Virginia's collateral source rule, payments received by the malpractice victim from third parties such as medical insurance companies would not be considered in the calculation of damages.
The statute of limitations limits the amount of time a person alleging medical malpractice has to file a lawsuit against health care providers. Virginia's statute of limitations for medical malpractice cases is two years from the date of the occurrence underlying the complaint, but not more than ten years from that date unless the plaintiff is under disabililty. For a case involving a foreign object left inside a patient's body, the statute of limitations is one year from the date the presence of the object is discovered or reasonably should have been discovered. For cases involving fraud, concealment or intentional misrepresentation that prevents a plaintiff from discovering the injury within the two year period, the statute of limitations is two years from the date that the injury is discovered or reasonably should have been discovered. For a case involving the negligent failure to diagnose a malignant tumor or cancer, the statute of limitations is one year from the date the diagnosis of a malignant tumor or cancer is communicated to the patient by a healthcare provider.
For minors under the age of eight, a malpractice action may be filed until the minor's tenth birthday. For minors ove the age of eight, a malpractice action must be commenced within two years of the date of the last act or omission giving rise to the minor's cause of action.
In Virginia, at any time within thirty days of the filing of a responsive pleading in an action for medical malpractice, any party to the action may request that the cause be reviewed by a medical review panel. The case is stayed during the pendency of the medical review process. Once a panel is requested and its members are selected, the party requesting panel review may withdraw that request only with the consent of all other parties, or with the leave of the judge presiding over the panel. Each panel is comprised of two impartial attorneys, two impartial healthcare providers who are both licensed by and practicing in the Commonweath of Virginia, and the judge of the circuit court in which the action was filed. The judge may not vote, and need not attend or participate in the panel's deliberations. Discovery may be allowed for a period not to exceed 120 days from the date the pnel is requested. The parties are to submit evidence to the panel, and when a hearing is held the panel may hear oral testimony.
Within thirty days of receiving all evidence, after joint deliberation, the panel must issue a report finding that the evidence does not support a finding that the health care provider failed to comply with the governing standard of care, that the health care provider failed to comply with the standard of care and the failure is a proximate cause of the plaintiff's damages, that the health care provider failed to comply with the standard of care but the failure was not a proximate cause of the plaintiff's damages, or that there is an issue of fact that bears on liablity, not requiring expert opinion, that must be considered by a court or jury. If the panel finds that the healthcare provider's negligence caused injury to the plaintiff, the panel may determine the nature and extent of any disability or impairment suffered by the plaintiff that resulted from the defendant's conduct. Any panel member may dissent from the report.
Unless the parties otherwise agree, the panel must render its opinion within six months of the designation of the panel. The opinion of the panel is admissible as evidence during any subsequent litigation, but is not conclusive. However, if the panel fails to meet the deadline for the completion of its report, its report will be inadmissible in evidence unless the failure to meet the deadline was caused by a delay on the part of the plaintiff. Any member of the panel, excluding the judge, may be called as a witness during subsequent litigation, at the cost of the party that calls the panel member as a witness.
The parties may also agree to submit a medical malpractice case to binding arbitration.
For a Virginia medical malpractice action, at the time the plaintiff requests service of process or acceptance of service of a complaint, judgment, counter-claim or third party claim, at the time the plaintiff requests service of process upon a defendant, or requests a defendant to accept service of process, that action is deemed a certification that the plaintiff has obtained from an expert whom the plaintiff reasonably believes would qualify as medical expert witness a written opinion signed by the expert that, based upon a reasonable understanding of the facts, the defendant upon whom the matter is to be served deviated from the applicable standard of care and the deviation was a proximate cause of the injuries claimed by the plaintiff. This certification is not necessary if the plaintiff, in good faith, alleges a medical malpractice action that asserts a theory of liability where expert testimony is unnecessary because the alleged act of negligence clearly lies within the range of the jury's common knowledge and experience. Any defendant may request in writing a formal, written certification by the plaintiff and the court may conduct a review to ensure that the plaintiff complied with the certification requirement. If the court finds that the plaintiff did not comply, the court may impose sanctions and may dismiss the case with prejudice.
In Virginia, a proposed expert witness is deemed qualified to testify as an expert on the standard of care in a medical malpractice action if the witness demonstrates expert knowledge of the standards of the defendant's specialty and of what conduct conforms or fails to conform to those standards and if he has had active clinical practice in either the defendant's specialty or a related field of medicine within one year of the date of the alleged act or omission forming the basis of the action. An expert witness who is familiar with the statewide standard of care shall not have his testimony excluded on the ground that he does not practice in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Any physician or nurse who is licensed to practice in Virginia is presumed to know the statewide standard of care in the specialty or field of medicine in which that doctor or nurse is qualified and certified. The same presumption applies to any physician who is licensed in another U.S. state and who meets the educational and examination requirements for licensure in Virginia. The presumption also applies to any nurse licensed by a state participating in the Nurse Licensure Compact.
An apology law prevents a plaintiff from using an apologetic or concilatory statement made by a defendant as evidence of the defendant's liability. Under Virginia's apology law for medical malpractice actions, the portion of any statement, writing, affirmation, benevolent conduct, or benevolent gesture expressing sympathy, commiseration, condolence, compassion, or a general sense of benevolence, together with any apology that is made by a health care provider or the provider's agent to the patient, or to the patient's family or representative, is be inadmissible as evidence of an admission of liability or as evidence of an admission against interest. However, a statement of fault that is made in part or in addition to such an expression of apology remains admissible.
If you believe that you have been injured by medical malpractice, a lawyer can help you by reviewing the facts and medical records of your case to determine if you have a viable case under the laws of your state. Medical malpractice cases are complex, and are very costly to litigate. Medical malpractice lawyers working on contingency fees will advance the cost of litigation, recovering those costs from the eventual verdict or settlement. A malpractice lawyer should be aware of changes in the law, and can help you avoid missing a filing deadline.
Copyright © 2016 Aaron Larson, All rights reserved. No portion of this article may be reproduced without the express written permission of the copyright holder. If you use a quotation, excerpt or paraphrase of this article, except as otherwise authorized in writing by the author of the article you must cite this article as a source for your work and include a link back to the original article from any online materials that incorporate or are derived from the content of this article.
This article was last reviewed or amended on Feb 15, 2016.
Lawyer and author of books, articles, and legal reference materials.


Stunning panoramas from the European Southern Observatory provide a sense of place.
A projected panorama of all four of the Very Large Telescope Unit Telescopes at ESO's Paranal Observatory in Chile, as well as a couple of the smaller Auxiliary Telescopes, framed by the arcing Milky Way.
Adaptive optics, which involve firing strong laser beams into the upper atmosphere, are seen here coming from the Very Large Telescope.
Another view of ESO's Paranal Observatory.
A day view at Paranal Observatory. The photographer has captured a equirectangular panorama of the site.
The La Silla site is the home to ground-breaking technology and research. The road to the La Silla site shows the stunning detail of a sky without the interference of light pollution.
The landscape at the La Silla observatory in Chile can be seen wrapped around the edge, whilst a comet fires across the Zodiac constellations.
At the Paranal Observatory, one of the Unit Telescopes points at the center of the Milky Way while its guiding laser is active.
This panorama of the Chilean Atacama Desert shows the Moon shining overhead. Petroglyphs are visible on the boulders.
A view of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). Overhead, the Milky Way shines in the center.
A reddish hue—called airglow—fills the sky above the decommissioned Swedish/ESO Submillimetre Telescope at La Silla Observatory in northern Chile.
And for Ars readers, a 360-degree panorama of the ALMA correlator room. Installed at the remote ALMA high altitude site in the Andes of northern Chile, this is one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world.
The best observatory in the world is arguably divided among three sites in northern Chile—La Silla, Paranal, and Chajnantor. Each location in the high, arid Atacama desert offers excellent dark and clear skies for the European Southern Observatory's suite of telescopes. At 2,635 meters in elevation Paranal boasts the best instruments, with four 8.2-meter telescopes combining to make up the Very Large Telescope.
Now more than 50 years old, the observatory has played a principal or significant role in a number of major astronomical landmarks, including the discovery of dark energy, finding Proxima b around Proxima Centauri, the observation of stars orbiting the Milky Way Galaxy, and much more.
Such an observatory also fulfills another, more human purpose. Outside of our light-polluted cities (and even countrysides in developed countries), the dark skies above the Atacama offer perspective on Earth's minuscule corner of the observable Universe.
Many of us feel trepidation as 2016 turns into 2017. The world is full of unrest, the new president of the United States is very different from his predecessors, and a spate of celebrity deaths reminds us of life's fragility. Perhaps some perspective might help. So behold—there is much, much more to the Universe than the petty squabbles here on planet Earth.


Lots of articles on the RBC deal with the RCGA for the Canadian Open. First (and foremost) there is mine — found here. You'll note my sources peg the deal at $20 million — $4 million per year over five years.
Lorne Rubenstein says it is $3 million in his Globe story. Rubenstein picked up on the notion that the Canadian Open under this deal will not make money for the RCGA.
RBC's title sponsorship, while crucial, won't be enough for the RCGA to make money from the Canadian Open. That being the case, West said, the RCGA's strategy is for its amateur events to be self-funding.
The RCGA is going through an exercise in strategic planning now, developing a long-term strategy that it will announce at its annual meeting in January.
But RCGA ED Scott Simmons seem to indicate the event should make money — but that money will be reinvested in the tournament or given to charity, something many other tournaments do on the PGA Tour. There's also talk that Pengrowth and Bell Canada — active sponsors in the last two years — could remain involved.
+ RCGA president Garry West (can we convince this guy to stay around for a few more years? How about Baby Doc West?) said that the board of governors never put a plan in place to cancel the Open although it was discussed. He said they just couldnt bring themselves to get to that point even though they knew it was a possibility.
Next postGM and Pro Out at St. George's — is the 2010 Canadian Open Next to Go?
I believe asking Garry West to 'sail the RCGA ship' for another year is a terrific idea.
Garry has demonstrated he is an excellent leader and decision taker. Furthermore, allowing Garry another will provide consistency in the change of title sponsors and, allow new ED Scott Simmons to remain focused on the multitude of 'adjustments' require within the RCGA.
Now all we have to do is convince the massive RCGA Board to amend their bylaws to allow Garry's tenure to be extended.
The argument/logic for having the RCGA President serve a two-year term is compelling.


text:
Feral hogs attack and kill woman outside Texas home
A Texas woman was found dead after pre-dawn attack by a group of feral hogs outside a home, the Chambers County sheriff said.
Christine Rollins, a 59-year old caregiver to an elderly couple in Anahuac, failed to show up at her normal time on Sunday, the sheriff's office said. The 84-year-old homeowner found her lying in the front yard between her car and the house.
Sheriff Brian Hawthorne said in a news conference Monday that "multiple hogs" assaulted Rollins when she arrived at work, likely between 6 and 6:30 a.m., when it was still dark outside.
"In my 35 years, I will tell you it's one of the worst things I've ever seen," Hawthorne told reporters.
Jefferson County Medical Examiner Selly Rivers determined Rollins was attacked by different hogs because of the various size of the bites on her body, Hawthorne said.
Mature feral hogs can weigh between 100 and 400 pounds, according to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department.
The sheriff noted feral hogs are a problem across Texas, but attacks are rare.
CNN affiliate KTRK spoke to neighbors who said they have complained recently about wild hogs in the area.
Update: Body found near creek in Searcy died due to medical condition, State Crime Lab says
Texas woman celebrating New Year's Eve was apparently killed by celebratory gunfire
'Most wanted' twin sisters accused of kicking down door, beating woman with frying pan
Body of 29-year-old woman missing since November discovered in the back of a U-Haul in California
Memphis mother of 8 shot dead with her children in car's backseat
In 46 weeks this year, there have been 45 school shootings
Man abandoned child on roadside because he thought boy might be gay, police say
Tied-up toddler with plastic bag over his head rescued from burning California home; mom arrested
U.S. Marshals issue alert after Virginia woman, children never return from vacation
After 6 days, California woman found alive in car buried in snow
3 children found dead in Phoenix home; mother held on murder charges
Woman rejects 20-year sentencing deal for drug charges, gets 99 years instead
Woman charged after extremely malnourished teen found weighing only 26 pounds

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
In SD, Gov. Kristi Noem appoints new health secretary
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem on Thursday appointed the owner of a South Dakota health clinic company to lead the state's Department of Health following the retirement of the previous secretary of health earlier this week.
GOV. NOEM TERMINATES CONTRACT WITH TRANSGENDER ADVOCACY GROUP: 'DIVIDING OUR YOUTH WITH RADICAL IDEOLOGIES'
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during a summit on July 16, 2021, in Des Moines, Iowa. Noem recently announced the appointment of former State Rep. Melissa Magstadt to South Dakota's top healthcare post.
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
The Republican governor named Melissa Magstadt, who also served two terms as a Republican in the state House of Representatives, as her next health secretary. Noem's office on Monday announced the previous secretary, Joan Adam, was retiring amid criticism from conservatives that led to Noem canceling a community health care grant to an organization that advocates for transgender people.
WISCONSIN GOV. EVERS ANNOUNCES RESIGNATION OF HEALTH SECRETARY KAREN TIMBERLAKE
Magstadt is an advanced practice registered nurse and owns Quick Care SD, which runs four urgent care clinics in the eastern part of the state. She also owns SG Essentials, which sells skin care products.
"Melissa has proven her ability to provide innovative and cost-effective healthcare to the people of South Dakota," Noem said in a statement. "She will bring a fresh perspective to the department.


Summary: I define a memoryless Cartesian environments (which can model many familiar decision problems), note the similarity to memoryless POMDPs, and define a local optimality condition for policies, which can be roughly stated as "the policy is consistent with maximizing expected utility using CDT and subjective probabilities derived from SIA". I show that this local optimality condition is necesssary but not sufficient for global optimality (UDT).
a set ST⊂S of terminal states. If the environment reaches a terminal state, the game ends.
a utility function U:ST→[0,1], measuring the value of each terminal state.
On each iteration, the agent observes some observation, and takes some action. Unlike in a POMDP, the agent has no memory of previous observations: the agent's policy must take into account only the current observation. That is, the policy is of type O→ΔA. In this analysis I'll assume that, for any state and policy, the expected number of iterations in the Cartesian environment starting from that state and using that policy is finite.
Memoryless Cartesian environments can be used to define many familier decision problems (for example, the absent-minded driver problem, Newcomb's problem with opaque or transparent boxes (assuming Omega runs a copy of the agent to make its prediction), counterfactual mugging (also assuming Omega simulates the agent)). Translating a decision problem to a memoryless Cartesian environment obviously requires making some Cartesian assumptions/decisions, though; in the case of Newcomb's problem, we have to isolate Omega's simulation of the agent as a copy of the agent.
Memoryless Cartesian environments are much like memoryless POMDPs, and the following analysis is quite similar to that given in some previous work on memoryless POMDPs: the main difference is that I am targeting (local) optimality given a known world model, while previous work usually targets asymptotic (local) optimality given an unknown world model.
Note that I've defined SIA to return an un-normalized probability distribution; this turns out to be useful later, since it naturally handles the case when the observation o occurs with probability 0.
How might an agent decide which action to take? Under one approach (UDT), the agent simply computes the globally optimal policy π that results in maximum expected utility (that is, a policy π maximizing Vπ(s1)) and takes the action recommended by this policy (perhaps stochastically). While UDT is philosophically satisfying, it is not a very direct algorithm. It would be nice to have a better intuition for how an agent using UDT acts, such that we could (in some cases) derive a polynomial-time algorithm.
Philosophically, a policy is locally optimal iff it is consistent with CDT (using SIA probabilities). This local optimality condition is not sufficient for global optimality (for the same reason that not all Nash equilibria in cooperative games are optimal), but it is necessary. The proof follows.
This has a natural interpretation: to compute dπ(o,a+,a−,s), we compute the expected value of simulating a run starting from s using policy π and summing Qπ(s′,a+)−Qπ(s′,a−) for all visited states s′ with m(s′)=o.
i.e. the expected value of of Qπ(s,a+)−Qπ(s,a−) with s having SIA probabilities (up to a multiplicative constant). From here the implication should be clear: if a policy π is not locally optimal, then there is some o,a+,a− triple such that a small change in making a+ more likely and a− less likely given observation o will increase expected utility (just set a− to the non-optimal action having nonzero probability given o, and set a+ to be a better alternative action). So this policy π would not be globally optimal either.
In memoryless Cartesian environments, policies consistent with CDT+SIA are locally optimal in some sense, and all globally optimal (UDT) policies are locally optimal in this sense. Therefore, if we look at (Cartesian) UDT the right way, it's doing CDT+SIA with some method for making sure the resulting policy is globally optimal rather than just locally optimal. It is not clear how to extend this analysis to non-Cartesian environments where logical updatelessness is important (e.g. agent simulates predictor), but this seems like a useful research avenue.
Since Briggs  shows that EDT+SSA and CDT+SIA are both ex-ante-optimal policies in some class of cases, one might wonder whether the result of this post transfers to EDT+SSA. I.e., in memoryless POMDPs, is every (ex ante) optimal policy also consistent with EDT+SSA in a similar sense. I think it is, as I will try to show below.
Given some existing policy π, EDT+SSA recommends that upon receiving observation o we should choose an action from argmaxa∑s1,...,snn∑i=1SSA(si in s1,...,sn∣o,πo→a)U(sn). (For notational simplicity, I'll assume that policies are deterministic, but, of course, actions may encode probability distributions.) Here, πo→a(o′)=a if o=o′ and πo→a(o′)=π(o′) otherwise. SSA(si in s1,...,sn∣o,πo→a) is the SSA probability of being in state si of the environment trajectory s1,...,sn given the observation o and the fact that one uses the policy πo→a.
The SSA probability SSA(si in s1,...,sn∣o,πo→a) is zero if m(si)≠o and SSA(si in s1,...,sn∣o,πo→a)=P(s1,...,sn∣πo→a)1#(o,s1,...,sn) otherwise. Here, #(o,s1,...,sn)=∑ni=1[m(si)=o] is the number of times o occurs in #(o,s1,...,sn). Note that this is the minimal reference class version of SSA, also known as the double-halfer rule (because it assigns 1/2 probability to tails in the Sleeping Beauty problem and sticks with 1/2 if it's told that it's Monday).
Inserting this into the above, we get argmaxa∑s1,...,snn∑i=1SSA(si in s1,...,sn∣o,πo→a)U(sn)=argmaxa∑s1,...,sn with o∑i=1...n,m(si)=o(P(s1,...,sn∣πo→a)1#(o,s1,...,sn))U(sn), where the first sum on the right-hand side is over all histories that give rise to observation o at some point. Dividing by the number of agents with observation o in a history and setting the policy for all agents at the same time cancel each other out, such that this equals argmaxa∑s1,...,sn with oP(s1,...,sn∣πo→a)U(sn)=argmaxa∑s1,...,snP(s1,...,sn∣πo→a)U(sn). Obviously, any optimal policy chooses in agreement with this. But the same disclaimers apply; multiple policies satisfy the right-hand side of this equation and not all of these are optimal.
Caveat: The version of EDT provided above only takes dependences between instances of EDT making the same observation into account. Other dependences are possible because different decision situations may be completely "isomorphic"/symmetric even if the observations are different. It turns out that the result is not valid once one takes such dependences into account, as shown by Conitzer . I propose a possible solution in https://casparoesterheld.com/2017/10/22/a-behaviorist-approach-to-building-phenomenological-bridges/ . Roughly speaking, my solution is to identify with all objects in the world that are perfectly correlated with you. However, the underlying motivation is unrelated to Conitzer's example.
I noticed that the sum inside argmaxa∑s1,...,sn∑ni=1SSA(si in s1,...,sn∣o,πo→a)U(sn) is not actually an expected utility, because the SSA probabilities do not add up to 1 when there is more than one possible observation. The issue is that conditional on making an observation, the probabilities for the trajectories not containing that observation become 0, but the other probabilities are not renormalized. So this seems to be part way between "real" EDT and UDT (which does not set those probabilities to 0 and of course also does not renormalize).
This zeroing of probabilities of trajectories not containing the current observation (and renormalizing, if one was to do that) seems at best useless busywork, and at worst prevents coordination between agents making different observations. In this formulation of EDT, such coordination is ruled out in another way, namely by specifying that conditional on o→a, the agent is still sure the rest of π is unchanged (i.e., copies of itself receiving other observations keep following π). If we remove the zeroing/renormalizing and say that the agent ought to have more realistic beliefs conditional on o→a, I think we end up with something close to UDT1.0 (modulo differences in the environment model from the original UDT).
Elsewhere [LW · GW], I illustrate this result for the absent-minded driver.
This result features in the paper by Piccione and Rubeinstein that introduced the absent-minded driver problem .
Philosophers like decision theories that self-ratify, and this is indeed a powerful self-ratification principle.
This self-ratification principle does however rely on SIA probabilities assuming the current policy. We have shown that conditioning on your current policy, you will want to continue on with your current policy. i.e. the policy will be a Nash Equilibrium. There can be Nash Equilibria for other policies π′ however. The UDT policy will by definition equal or beat these from the ex ante point of view. However, others can achieve higher expected utility conditioning on the initial observation i.e. higher SIAπ′(s|o)Qπ′(s,a). This apparent paradox is discussed in  , and seems to reduce to disagreement over counterfactual mugging.
i) it is reflectively stable (i.e. will not self-modify, will not hide future evidence) and ii) it makes sense assuming modal realism or many worlds interpretation (then we deem it parochial to focus on any reference frame other than equal weighting across the whole wavefunction/universe) iii) it makes sense if we assume that self-location somehow does not iv) it's simpler (utility function given weighting 1 across all worlds). In principle, UDT can also include the locally optimal v) it transfers better to scenarios without randomization as in Nate + Ben Levenstein's forthcoming .
I imagine there are more good arguments that I don't yet know.
p19 Piccione, Michele, and Ariel Rubinstein. "On the interpretation of decision problems with imperfect recall." Games and Economic Behavior 20.1 (1997): 3-24.
Schwarz, Wolfgang. "Lost memories and useless coins: revisiting the absentminded driver." Synthese 192.9 (2015): 3011-3036.


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An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., Oct. 2, 2019. Photo Credit: Air Force Staff Sgt. J.T. Armstrong
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Triangularity Of Nuclear Arms Control: Possible Implications Of China's Involvement In Nuclear Talks – Analysis
September 30, 2020 September 30, 2020 Alexander G. Savelyev* 0 Comments
By Alexander G. Savelyev*
In December 2019, the United States officially invited China to enter into a strategic security dialogue. The White House said it hoped Beijing's consent to this proposal might become the first step towards an international agreement encompassing all nuclear weapons of the United States, Russia, and China. As expected, this proposal was rejected. China said its nuclear arsenal was much smaller than those of the United States and Russia, and it would be able to participate in such talks only when their nuclear potentials were brought to parity with its own.
In March 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump once again declared his intention to ask Russia and China to hold such talks with the aim of avoiding a costly arms race (Reuters.com, 2020). The Chinese Foreign Ministry's response followed virtually in no time. Its spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that China had no intention of taking part in the so-called China-U.S.-Russia trilateral arms control negotiations, and that its position on this issue was very clear (ECNC.cn., 2020). He called upon the United States to extend the New START and to go ahead with the policy of U.S-Russian nuclear arms reduction, thus creating prerequisites for other countries to join the nuclear disarmament process. There is nothing new about China's stance. A year earlier Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang, while speaking at a news conference in May 2019, made a similar statement. China refused to participate in a trilateral arms control agreement (Fmprc.gov.2019).
It is noteworthy that while advising the United States and Russia to downgrade their nuclear potentials to its level, China does not say what exactly this level is. One of the rare official statements (if not the sole one) on that score was the Chinese Foreign Ministry's statement, published on April 27, 2004, that China's nuclear arsenal was the smallest of all (Fact Sheet China, 2004). Even in that case the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not specify if it was referring to the quintet of the UN Security Council's permanent members. If so, China's nuclear arsenal, according to official statistics, consisted of no more than 190 warheads (Britain's level that year). Such (understated according to most analysts) estimates, have also been mentioned by a number of experts. For example, Harvard researcher Hui Zhang says China in 2011 had 166 nuclear warheads. There are other, higher estimates. For instance, Professor Phillip Karber of Georgetown University believes that China has 3,000 warheads at its disposal (Karber, 2011), while many other researchers call this in question.
The estimate offered by H. Kristensen and M. Korda of the Federation of American Scientists, who issue annual world surveys of nuclear arms potentials, is shared by most researchers and draws no objections from political circles in various countries, including the United States. According to their calculations as for April 2020, the United States had 3,800 deployed and non-deployed nuclear warheads, and Russia, 4,312 warheads. As for China, the same survey says it has 320 non-deployed nuclear warheads (Kristensen and Korda, 2020).
While underscoring the importance of nuclear arms cuts by the United States and Russia to China's level, Beijing does not specify if this idea applies only to strategic or all nuclear weapons. In the former case, if China's approach is to be accepted, Russia and the United States would have to slash their nuclear arsenals by 65%-75% (from 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads in compliance with the rules of the still effective New START). But if the total number of nuclear warheads on either side is to be counted, each country's nuclear potential would shrink by no less than 90%. Only after this will China be prepared to consider in earnest its participation in nuclear arms control talks.
The United States and Russia can hardly find this suitable. At the same time, these countries have not yet officially formulated their specific approaches to and basic provisions of hypothetical trilateral talks and a future agreement on this issue. For the time being, these issues are in the focus of experts' attention in a number of countries, and they have over the past few years offered a variety of possible formats and parameters of a future "multilateral" treaty. In most cases, experts delve into certain aspects of a future agreement that might be attractive to China. Very few think of what China might lose the moment it enters into nuclear arms control talks or what military-political consequences might follow if China eventually changed its mind regarding participation in such negotiations.
In my opinion, China's demand for achieving the "comparability" of nuclear potentials as a precondition for beginning a trilateral dialogue stems precisely from its evaluation of the consequences of its participation in the negotiations. This stance is neither far-fetched nor propagandistic, contrary to what some experts and politicians claim, but rests upon major political, military and strategic cornerstones. Disregard for China's arguments actually reduces to nothing all efforts, above all those taken by Washington, to engage Beijing in nuclear arms talks.
As far as the United States is concerned, the motives behind its attempts to persuade China to join nuclear arms talks are not quite clear. There may be several possible considerations that the United States is guided by in its policy on the issue. One is that Washington may be looking for a way to obtain necessary information about the current state of China's nuclear potential and plans for its development in the future in order to be able to adjust its own modernization programs accordingly. Another explanation is that the United States may be reluctant to go ahead with the nuclear disarmament policy and hopes to use China's unequivocal refusal to participate in negotiations as a chance to blame it for the disruption of this process and for dismantling the nuclear arms control system as such. I believe both explanations may be true, but their analysis lies beyond the scope of this article.
OPTIONS OF ENGAGING CHINA IN NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL TALKS
"Americans performed three very different policies on the People's Republic: From a total negation (and the Mao-time mutual annihilation assurances), to Nixon's sudden cohabitation. Finally, a Copernican-turn: the US spotted no real ideological differences between them and the post-Deng China. This signalled a 'new opening': West imagined China's coastal areas as its own industrial suburbia. Soon after, both countries easily agreed on interdependence (in this marriage of convenience): Americans pleased their corporate (machine and tech) sector and unrestrained its greed, while Chinese in return offered a cheap labour, no environmental considerations and submissiveness in imitation.
However, for both countries this was far more than economy, it was a policy – Washington read it as interdependence for transformative containment and Beijing sow it as interdependence for a (global) penetration. In the meantime, Chinese acquired more sophisticated technology, and the American Big tech sophisticated itself in digital authoritarianism – 'technological monoculture' met the political one.
But now with a tidal wave of Covid-19, the honeymoon is over" – recently wrote professor Anis H. Bajrektarevic on a strategic decoupling between the biggest manufacturer of American goods, China and its consumer, the US.
Indeed, Washington has not formulated in detail its official stance on engaging China in negotiations yet. Disarmament experts consider a number of options that may be proposed in principle. These options may be grouped into three main categories. The first one is putting pressure on China with the aim of making it change its mind regarding arms control. The second one is the search for proposals China may find lucrative enough, which the Chinese leadership might agree to study in earnest. And the third one is a combination of these two approaches.
As far as pressure on China is concerned, the United States is already exerting it along several lines. For one, China is criticized for the condition and development prospects of its nuclear arsenal. Specifically, it is blamed on being the only nuclear power in the Permanent Big Five that has not reduced its nuclear potential. Moreover, as follows from a statement made in May 2019 by Robert Ashley, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, "over the next decade, China is likely to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile in the course of implementing the most rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in China's history" (Adamczyk, 2019). Both officials and many experts have been quoting this postulate as an established fact requiring no proof.
China is also accused of the lack of transparency, that is, refusal to disclose the size and structure of its nuclear forces, programs for their upgrade, and other nuclear policy aspects. The U.S. leadership argues that this state of affairs by no means promotes strategic stability and international security. Some experts believe that China's involvement in negotiations would help avoid some adverse effects, for example, another nuclear arms race under a Cold War scenario (Zhao, 2020). Rose Gottemoeller, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security in the Barack Obama administration, believes it may be possible to "make a case for the Chinese to come to the table early on intermediate-range constraints of ground-launched missiles, because they are staring at the possibility of a deployment of very capable U.S. missiles of this kind" (Mehta, 2020).
Apparently, the United States had counted on Russia's support in such matters, especially as the Russian leadership said more than once that the New START, signed in 2010, was to become the last bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty and time was ripe for other nuclear states to join the nuclear disarmament process. However, in late 2019 Russia made a U-turn in its stance on China's participation in negotiations. Speaking at a conference entitled "Foreign Policy Priorities of the Russian Federation in Arms Control and Nonproliferation in the Context of Changes in the Global Security Architecture," held on November 8, 2019 in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia respected China's position concerning its refusal to participate in the talks. Moreover, he stated that declaring China's consent to participate in the negotiating process as a precondition looked "openly provocative." Thus Russia made it clear that it had no intention of putting pressure on China regarding the issue, but at the same time it would have nothing against the Chinese leadership eventually making a decision to join the United States and Russia in nuclear disarmament talks. Russia is unlikely to alter its position even under pressure from the United States, which has long harbored plans for using the prolongation of the New START as a factor for getting China involved in the talks in some way, or even securing its consent to become a signatory to the treaty. Specifically, the U.S. president's National Security Advisor Robert O'Brian made an unequivocal statement on that score (Riechmann, 2020). Also, in May 2020, the United States came up with an ultimatum that it would not extend the New START until China agreed to participate in it. Moreover, the newly appointed special U.S. presidential representative for arms control, Marshall Billingslea, actually demanded that Russia "bring the Chinese to the negotiating table."
The United States may exert (or is already exerting) pressure on China "indirectly," for example by using such levers as the U.S.-Chinese trade war and China's alleged "responsibility" for the spread of the coronavirus (which the United States regards as proven). Such pressures may be largely exerted covertly.
Some military and political experts believe that it is worth exploring compromise options of China's participation in nuclear arms control. Such options may accommodate the interests of all partakers and match the specific structure and quantitative parameters of weapons subject to control. Establishing transparency in the given sphere would be one of the "simple" ways of involving China in the strategic dialogue. In other words, such transparency would imply mutual disclosure of information about the number of missiles and deployed warheads, their basic parameters, including range, and also specific locations and deployment sites (Tosaki, 2019). It must be noted that this seemingly "least painful" and easy-to-accomplish solution for making China join the international arms control dialogue is in fact least acceptable to it.
The long list of other proposals includes various options of a "mixed" approach to the control of missile systems. For instance, reaching an agreement on a common ceiling for intermediate-range ground-based and air-launched missiles or a similar restriction on any strategic missiles regardless of the type of deployment (ground, sea, or air launched), as well as the intermediate-range missiles of three nuclear powers―China, the United States, and Russia. The proponents of this approach believe that this may provide an approximately equitable basis for talks among the aforesaid states (Zhao, 2020).
All of the aforementioned recommendations―and a number of other ideas―for plugging China into bilateral or multilateral nuclear arms control talks are based on the past experience of negotiations on the issue. In the meantime, the specifics of China's nuclear policy are left unnoticed or intentionally ignored. It is generally believed that inviting China to participate in negotiations is tantamount to official recognition of its status as a great power responsible, like the United States and Russia, not only for its own security but also for global security. This recognition is often considered a reason enough to expect China to consent to participate in such negotiations and the main problem is seen in the formulation of concrete proposals for discussion. In the meantime, such an approach looks erroneous.
THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF CHINA'S NUCLEAR POLICY
China's policy concerning nuclear arms and their role in maintaining national security has remained unchanged for more than 55 years, starting from its accession to the "nuclear club" in 1964. Central to that policy is China's pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons or threaten to use them against non-nuclear countries and countries in nuclear free zones. It is believed that Mao Zedong made that decision personally in 1964 (Fravel, 2019).
In accordance with this pledge, China, as it reiterates, maintains its nuclear deterrence weapons at a required minimum by declaring its readiness for retaliation against an aggressor in the event of a hypothetical nuclear attack. China vows it does not participate in a nuclear arms race against any country. These provisions have remained unchanged for many years and can be found in many Chinese fundamental military and strategic planning documents, available from open sources (The State Council, 2019), and are repeatedly quoted by the Chinese mass media (Xinhuaneet.com., 2019).
In contrast to the classical nuclear deterrence formula China does not demonstrate its retaliatory strike capabilities; on the contrary, it conceals them for various reasons. Enhancing the survivability of retaliatory strike systems is one. Such "existential" means of deterrence enables the country possessing a relatively small nuclear potential to keep a potential aggressor in a state of strategic uncertainty as it cannot be certain that its first strike would "disarm" the defending opponent by eliminating all of its nuclear weapons with a surprise counterforce strike.
To confirm its adherence to the no-fist use principle, China declares that it limits its nuclear potential to the "minimum" defense requirements, while all upgrade programs are geared mostly to ensuring the survivability and reliability of retaliatory strike systems. China's nuclear forces have become more survivable due to the creation and deployment of mobile ICBMs, and measures to shelter a considerable part of its nuclear potential, including mobile ICBMs and shorter-range missiles in a network of underground tunnels―the Underground Great Wall of China. Also, other means of hiding nuclear weapons are used, such as mock ICBM silos and shelters for nuclear submarines inside coastal rocks.
As the information about the condition, development prospects and size of China's nuclear potential remains scarce, its nuclear policy issues are in the focus of attention of many specialists and think tanks in the United States and other countries. Most of them (but far from all) believe that China's declared policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons and estimates of its nuclear potential (around 300 warheads) agree with reality (Pifer, 2019). But other researchers maintain that under certain circumstances China may revise its attitude to the no-first-use principle and abandon the minimum deterrence concept in favor of gaining opportunities for conducting limited nuclear war. Such conclusions are made on the basis of data showing the growth of qualitative parameters of China's nuclear forces―greater accuracy of nuclear warheads, the deployment of MIRVs on ICBMs, forecasts for a considerable increase in the overall number of nuclear weapons at the country's disposal, etc. (Giacomdetti, 2014; Yoshihara and Bianchi, 2019; Schneider, 2019).
It should be acknowledged that the lack of official information about the condition and development prospects of China's nuclear arsenal and implementation of programs in the strategic field (creation of a heavy ICBM, research and development of a missile attack warning system, deployment of a missile defense, and others) afford ground for a variety of speculations over China's compliance with the professed principles regarding nuclear weapons. In the meantime, this by no means contradicts the fundamental principle of China's nuclear policy―no-first-use of nuclear weapons―which will remain unchanged in the foreseeable future. Even if one assumes that China does participate in the nuclear arms race (which is also a subject of speculations), it is by no means its instigator.
Certain changes are possible, though. China may acquire real capabilities for a limited response to a limited nuclear attack. In other words, the country's military-political leadership, empowered to make a decision to use nuclear weapons, will acquire extra opportunities and options for retaliation other than a massive nuclear strike against the enemy's major unprotected targets, such as cities and industrial centers. At the same time there is no reason to say that the improvement of parameters of China's strategic nuclear forces increases the risk of a first counterforce strike against a would-be aggressor just because the nuclear potentials of China and the two leading nuclear powers are incomparable. In this case size does matter.
EFFECTS OF ARMS CONTROL ON CHINA'S NUCLEAR STRATEGY AND POLICY
Should China agree to participate in negotiations or draft an agreement on control of its nuclear weapons, its nuclear strategy and policy will most likely undergo the most serious changes. And these changes, in the author's opinion, may be far from positive. They will result not from possible restrictions imposed on China's nuclear forces or disadvantageous terms of a future treaty forced upon China, but the very fact of concluding such an international treaty.
A close look at Soviet-U.S. and Russian-U.S. nuclear arms control agreements reveals how the parties' approaches to solving the problems of national security and strengthening strategic stability have been changing. At early stages the two sides managed to come to terms regarding the overall number of ground-based launchers of strategic ballistic missiles, SLBM capable submarines and SLBM launchers. Later, the class of strategic weapons was expanded to incorporate heavy bombers armed with long-range cruise missiles and gravity nuclear bombs. Some types of nuclear weapons, for instance, strategic air-launched ballistic missiles were banned. Next, there followed restrictions on nuclear warheads deployed on delivery vehicles and then their reductions. A total ban was applied to ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range cruise missiles. An attempt was made to outlaw ICBMs with multiple warheads. Each clause of the concluded treaties was scrutinized by the expert community and drew worldwide interest.
In addition, efforts were made to develop a mechanism to verify compliance with the assumed commitments. The first Soviet-U.S. agreements SALT-1 (1972) and SALT-2 (1979) assigned the control function to "national technical means of verification"―intelligence satellites. The contracting parties pledged to refrain from creating impediments to their operation. Also, the signatories undertook "not to use deliberate concealment measures which impede verification by national technical means of compliance." In the next agreements―the INF Treaty (of 1987) and, particularly, START-1 (1991) ― a comprehensive system of control and verification was developed and adopted. It envisaged exchanges of data (including the geographical coordinates of each ICBM silo) and various notifications and on-site inspections, which made it totally impossible to conceal even the slightest violations of these agreements. This system of verification functions within the framework of the still effective Russian-U.S. New START, concluded in 2010.
It is hard to imagine a hypothetical agreement with China not including compliance verification procedures. And it is very unlikely that the system of verification in such an agreement will be "soft," as was the case with the one established under the earlier SALT-1 and SALT-2 treaties. On the contrary, as follows from statements by U.S. officials, the United States is determined to pay the closest attention to the verification and control of compliance with all future agreements. U.S. Acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Christopher Ford has made an explicit statement on this score.
Even if such an agreement does not impose any obligations on China, requiring reduction of its nuclear potential, Beijing will be expected to provide exhaustive information about its nuclear weapons and deployment sites. Also, China will have to give up measures to conceal its nuclear forces, change the locations of mobile missile systems and allow foreign inspectors to visit classified facilities (including the Underground Great Wall of China) in order to confirm that the provided information is correct and proper action has been taken under assumed commitments. Besides, China will have to notify other signatories of the commissioning of new nuclear weapons and withdrawal from operational duty or elimination of older systems, the redeployment of weapons, etc. All these measures will make it possible to keep under full control China's nuclear potential and nuclear arms delivery vehicles.
These measures, understandable from the standpoint of an arms control treaty, may have truly disastrous effects on China's entire official nuclear policy. Information disclosure and control measures would make China's nuclear arsenal totally vulnerable to a first nuclear strike and partially – to a non-nuclear strike. A potential aggressor, possessing a considerable advantage in nuclear weapons and full information about the deployment sites, will have a guaranteed capability to destroy the adversary's entire nuclear potential. Theoretically, it would spend far more nuclear weapons than the victim of the aggression (in this particular case, China) would lose, but still retain an enormous attack potential. In a situation like this, there will be no weapons available to deliver a retaliatory strike. All this will mean that China's declared no-first-use policy will lose credibility. In other words, it will turn into a propaganda slogan, with no real resources to rely on to implement this policy in practice.
Apparently, it is precisely these considerations that are behind China's refusal to participate in nuclear arms control talks, and they will remain in place at least until the strategic situation in this field undergoes fundamental change. One of the most important conditions for China to enter into such negotiations (it says so openly) is further reduction of nuclear arsenals by Russia and the United States to levels comparable with China's potential. As it has been already stated, this condition, described as a political one, has fundamental strategic, military and technical grounds.
LIKELY CONSEQUENCES OF CHINA'S PARTICIPATION IN A NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL TREATY
As has been said above, China's consent to enter into nuclear arms control negotiations and conclusion of a corresponding agreement will be unlikely in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, it is worth pondering on what decisions in the military and political field the Chinese leadership may adopt if it has to give in to U.S. pressure. One of the most important decisions is, to my mind, the possibility of China remaining committed to the no-first-use principle.
Currently, this principle is ensured not so much by the quantitative parameters of China's nuclear arsenal, but as its stealthy deployment, concealment measures, and refusal to provide relevant information. In order to retain a retaliatory strike potential in a situation where the information about the deployment sites of China's nuclear forces has been disclosed while the amount of nuclear arms available remains considerably inferior to those of the "partner" or "partners," China will have to exert major efforts to ensure the invulnerability of at least some of them. Doing this will be impossible without a major buildup of the nuclear potential, above all, of the least vulnerable strategic systems (mobile ICBMs and SLBMs). All of this will require considerable expenses and time. Even if the work on a new treaty takes two or three, or even five years, one can hardly expect any considerable changes in the quantitative and qualitative structure of China's nuclear forces by the moment this work is finalized.
The problem of strategic nuclear forces' vulnerability may theoretically be resolved (at least to a certain extent) by developing and deploying missile defenses around deployment sites. But this would entail heavy spending, too. Also, such a program can hardly be implemented within tight deadlines. The problem of greater vulnerability of China's strategic nuclear forces can also be resolved by adopting the "launch-under-attack" concept or "launch on warning" concept. Their adoption might be considered, although with great reservations, to conform to the no-first-use principle, but in this case it will be essential to build a warning system based on early warning satellites and radars. However, still there will be no guarantees that such a system will be able to issue a timely notification to the military and political leadership of a missile attack against China, if such a strike is carried out with U.S. SLBMs having short flight-in time and counterforce capability. Under such a scenario China's strategic forces will have to remain on high alert all the time. This means that China will be forced to give up keeping missile warheads in store separately and to deploy them on strategic delivery vehicles, thus demonstrating its readiness for instant retaliation in case of an attack warning.
The above arguments prompt the conclusion that China, if it agrees to the drafting and signing a nuclear arms control treaty, will certainly have to depart from the principle of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, with all the ensuing negative consequences. This may also trigger an enhanced arms race and induce China to adopt more aggressive nuclear arms concepts.
It is nakedly clear that China finds it far easier to refuse to hold nuclear arms control talks than address the adverse military and strategic effects its participation in such an international agreement is bound to entail. In this situation the United States should give more thought to its policy of engaging China in nuclear arms control talks and focus on Russian-U.S. strategic relations, including the prolongation of the New START without any linkages and preconditions.
As far as Russia is concerned, its current policy of avoiding pressure on China to make it engage in nuclear arms talks looks reasonable. From the political standpoint―alongside with other considerations―a trilateral agreement would mean that Russia officially regards China, albeit formally, as a "partner" (if not a "potential adversary"), just as the United States, and that strategic relations among such parties are based on the concept of nuclear deterrence, the balance of nuclear forces, and their capabilities to deliver first and retaliatory strikes. Incidentally, China's participation would have the same implications for Russia. Lending this dimension to bilateral relations hardly meets the interests of the two countries.
*Alexander G. Savelyev, Dr. of Political Science, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Moscow, Russia, Center of International Security, Chief Research Fellow
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Serling's Re-Zoning Efforts: "The Four of Us Are Dying"
Ever assume, when you first watched The Twilight Zone as a kid, that Rod Serling wrote every episode?
I've had a number of people tell me they thought that, and let's face it: It is a logical assumption. He personally introduces each tale, and they all conclude with his distinctive voice wrapping up the proceedings with a memorably wry comment or two.
But no, other fine writers contributed some terrific stories. Still, Serling wrote a staggering 92 of the 156 episodes, or nearly two out of every three. No wonder he admitted to feeling burned out as the series entered its home stretch.
Not every Serling script was an original, however. Sometimes he adapted the works of other writers. He'd pay for the rights to a story, then turn it into a Twilight Zone.
This might sound like relatively easy work, but it wasn't. In many cases, he took the basic idea and turned it into a script that barely resembled its ancestor.
Such was the case when Serling turned George Clayton Johnson's story "All of Us Are Dying" into "The Four of Us Are Dying" for Twilight Zone's first season. Read the rest of this entry →
Tags: All of Us Are Dying, George Clayton Johnson, Rod Serling, The Four of Us Are Dying, Twilight Zone
Matheson: Why I Named It "Spur of the Moment"
The title of a particular TV episode means almost nothing to the average TV viewer. An entertaining story is all we ask. Yet some writers do take care with their titles … and it can even affect how good the episode is.
Case in point: "Spur of the Moment," from Twilight Zone's fifth season. The highly imaginative Richard Matheson explains:
I love that title! She married on the "spur of the moment," really. She married for emotion. And there was also the spurs of the person riding the horse … there were multiple and hidden meanings in that title, which is something I like to do. Titles are very important, and it's really nice if you can get a good one. As a writer, I prefer to have the title occur to me instantly — even sometimes before I do the story. It colors how I approach the story, and I feel much more comfortable.
Having a catchy title must have helped. There's a good reason I included "Spur of the Moment" on my list of the best Twilight Zone episodes to watch on Halloween. Read the rest of this entry →
Tags: Richard Matheson, Spur of the Moment, Twilight Zone


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Celebrate the Season of Giving at The Clementi Mall
Singapore, 9 November 2011 – Celebrate this Christmas and indulge in the season of giving at The Clementi Mall from 11 November to 26 December 2011. Special privileges await all shoppers and Citibank SMRT Platinum Visa Credit/Debit Cardmembers can look forward to exclusive promotions.
1. Gift with Purchase
Shoppers can redeem a $10* The Clementi Mall voucher with a minimum spend of $200 at any shop or $250 at FairPrice Finest.
Citibank SMRT Platinum Visa Credit/ Debit Cardmembers who charge the same amount to their Cards will receive an additional $5 voucher.
* Maximum 2 same-day receipts can be combined for redemption. Valid for one redemption per shopper per day on a first-come-first-served basis, while stocks last for the first 1,000 shoppers. Not applicable for bill payments, installment plans and voucher purchases. Receipts once utilised for redemption in the program will not be applicable for other ongoing mall or outlet promotion. Other terms and conditions apply.
2. Spend & Win!
Shoppers who spend a minimum of $100 at any shop or $150 at FairPrice Finest will stand a chance to win $6,000 worth of prizes#.
Citibank SMRT Platinum Visa Credit/Debit Cardmembers will get double the chances.
Prizes include a diamond pendant set, Linkskin sunglasses, Loewe sunglasses, a 40" Sony Bravia Internet TV, two sets of Nokia Lumia 800, Eu Yan Sang vouchers and FairPrice Finest vouchers.
# Lucky draw promotion is from 11 November to 26 December 2011. Limited to a maximum of 10 chances per shopper (20 chances for Citibank SMRT Platinum Visa Credit/Debit cardmembers) per day. Entries must be received no later than 9pm, 26 December 2011. Other terms and conditions apply.
3. Musical Happenings at Level 3
Soak in the Yuletide atmosphere at The Clementi Mall with these musical performances:
Saturday Music Treats in November (3pm & 4pm)
12 Nov Amanda Tee
19 Nov Munkee Business
26 Nov Janiz & Khai
Christmas Musical Specials in December (3pm, 3.45pm & 4.30pm)
3 & 10 Dec Vocca Inc
17 Dec Kent Ridge Secondary School Band
24 Dec West Wood Concert Band
Issued by Singapore Press Holdings Limited
Co. Regn. No: 198402868E
For media enquiries, please contact:
Ms Ina Se
Senior Manager,
CM Domain Pte Ltd
DID: 6830 3812
Email: ina@paragonsc.com.sg
Eileen Quay
Email: eileenquay@paragonsc.com.sg
Selina Esther Lim
Singapore Press Holdings
Email: limyl@sph.com.sg
About CM Domain Pte Ltd
CM Domain Pte Ltd is a joint venture by SPH's subsidiary Times Properties Pte Ltd (60%), NTUC Income Insurance Co-operative Limited (20%) and NTUC Fairprice Co-operative Limited (20%). It owns The Clementi Mall, a 99-year leasehold property located at Clementi town centre.
Incorporated in 1984, main board-listed Singapore Press Holdings Ltd (SPH) is Southeast Asia's leading media organisation, engaging minds and enriching lives across multiple languages and platforms.
Newspapers, Magazines and Book Publishing
In Singapore, SPH publishes 18 newspaper titles in four languages. Every day, 3 million individuals or 77 per cent of people above 15 years old, read one of SPH's news publications. SPH also publishes and produces more than 100 magazine titles in Singapore and the region, covering a broad range of interests from lifestyle to information technology. SPH's subsidiaries, Straits Times Press and Focus Publishing, produce quality books and periodicals in English and Chinese.
Internet and Mobile
Beyond print, the Internet editions of SPH newspapers enjoy over 265 million page views with 18 million unique visitors every month. Apart from SPH AsiaOne portal, SPH's online and new media initiatives include an online marketplace for products, services and employment, ST701; Stomp, omy.sg, and The Straits Times RazorTV. SPH also launched The Straits Times' iPad and enhanced iPhone applications, and The Business Times Weekend's iPad application.
SPH has a 20 per cent stake in MediaCorp TV Holdings Pte Ltd, which operates free-to-air channels 5, 8 and U, and a 40 per cent stake in MediaCorp Press Limited, which publishes the free newspaper, Today. In the radio business, SPH has an 80 per cent stake in SPH UnionWorks Pte Ltd, which operates entertainment stations Radio 100.3 in Chinese and 91.3FM in English.
Events and Out-of-Home Advertising
SPH's events subsidiary Sphere Exhibits organises innovative consumer and trade events and exhibitions. In addition, SPH has ventured into out-of-home (OOH) advertising through its wholly-owned subsidiary, SPH MediaBoxOffice Pte Ltd, Singapore's leading Digital Out-of-Home advertising company.
SPH owns and manages Paragon, the prime retail and office complex in the heart of Orchard Road, Singapore's main shopping belt. Its latest retail development, The Clementi Mall, started business operations in 2011. SPH's wholly-owned subsidiary, Times Development Pte Ltd, has also developed a 43-storey upmarket residential condominium, Sky@eleven, at Thomson Road.


Stealth and Shooters have always been strange bedfellows ever since they first met. On one hand the genres don't appear to mesh well, what with your standard FPS starring a one-man army who plows through hundreds of mooks with an ever-increasing assortment of deadly weapons, and stealth involving slow, laborious sneaking past individual guards and relying on not making sound or setting off alarms. On the other hand, that's exactly why stealth games have a dedicated niche fanbase, exactly because it goes against the conventions of the genre and uses the core elements of an FPS in a creative new way.
Here's a screenshot from Metal Gear Solid. I would probably get lynched were I not to mention Metal Gear in this article, but I've never played nor know anything about the series so I don't feel qualified to bring it up beyond this. Sorry. Picture from article by Nick Maizlin.
Now, this article is mainly going to focus on stealth elements in otherwise non-stealth first-person shooters, because that's where TF2 fits in. This problem presents a unique challenge to a developer; how does one balance the options of "murder everyone" and "sneak past everyone" in the exact same game? The first, and most obvious strategy, is to provide some sort of level-up aspect where the player chooses to put points into the things they want to get better at. Referred to as "RPG Elements," these games get the stealth/action dichotomy for free because one of the focuses is aiding the player in choosing how they want to play the game. Bioshock, Deus Ex, and Star Wars: Dark Forces II are examples of this genre. A second option for games that don't want leveling systems is to add "stealthy" inventory options as weapon and equipment choices. Perhaps a silenced pistol can kill enemies without alerting other enemies, or some sort of cloaking item grants the ability to bypass encounters. Loadout has a 'disguise' equipment that can let you get up close and pairs well with shotguns. Jurassic Park: Trespasser had silenced guns which dealt reduced damage and nothing else, but had the game been coded correctly would have let you attack dinosaurs without their friends hearing you. Melee options fill this role in some games; in Sir You Are Being Hunted the hatchet is your only bet for killing a lone patrolman when others are nearby, with the obvious drawbacks being how close you must get to pull it off. A lot of games may treat a bow-and-arrow or crossbow as this sort of thing.
The real fun starts when the game doesn't have a leveling/point-buying system or swappable inventory options, and the only thing changing the experience is how the player chooses to use the weapons at their disposal. At this point the most common iteration is to give the player one or two equipment items that are designed to reward sleuthing or scoping out the situation before charging in. In Far Cry the binoculars obtained in the first level will add any identified enemies to your HUD, and color their icon based on how attentive they are to your presence. Harry Potter 7, the world's pre-eminent magic-based shooter, gives you an invisibility cloak so useful that you can defeat the final boss by crouching in a corner until time runs out. In certain situations, the ability to summon allies or turrets can be considered a stealth element if you use them mainly as a distraction; this was my primary use of Snarks in Half-Life and Pheropods in Half-Life 2.
Sometimes the environment provides the sneaky options. Eagle-eyed players can save precious bullets in Trespasser by looking for physics objects to drop on upcoming dinosaur heads. Screenshot from Research Indicates' excellent Let's Play of the whole game.
Team Fortress 2 uses almost all of these tricks in the development of the spy class, obviously the one designed to appeal to the stealth aficionados. His disguise kit and invisibility watch are obvious examples, but notice also that he has several ways to obtain information that could extend his life. He can see enemy health on his HUD and use disguises to ascertain his opponent's loadout. The sapper model visibly indicates when buildings are in range and the "Buy a Life" taunt lets him determine what direction the wind is blowing on the map. But think also of his character design; a dull-colored suit with very little distinguishing or contrasting colors. Contrast this to the average visibility of most class models (and the ultra-visible white labcoat on Medic; Valve wants enemies to see the medic!) As Nethero notes in this article, even Spy's taunts are designed to remind players that visibility and attention-drawing are not encouraged strategies for their repertoire. But spy isn't the only class designed for stealth; scout, pyro, and ninjaneers can all benefit from savvy map knowledge and and awareness of their surroundings. Every map in TF2 is designed to have flanking routes and hiding places. Pyro actually covers another 'stealth' option I don't see in many games; the ability to afflict your enemy with a status condition that dissuades them from pursuing you. Perhaps that doesn't quite count as stealth.
This article is part of my "On Shooters" series, where I compare multiple games by focusing on a specific game mechanic or developer objective. To read the rest, click here!
PASS Time – Pass, or Worth The Time?
Why you really, really should not be a Battle Medic.


Add some Octopus to make the Shrimp Cocktail even better!
Monterrey Jack Cheese, beans, sour cream, guacamole & homemade jalapeño cheese sauce. Customize it by adding some carne asada or chicken!
French fries with Monterrey Jack Cheese, beans, sour cream, guacamole & homemade jalapeño cheese sauce. Customize it by adding some carne asada or chicken!
Huge flour tortilla grilled over melted Jack cheese. Add some meat to personalize it!


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The Cities Issue
This city bans cars every Sunday—and people love it
Spurred by environmental concerns, an experiment in Bogotá, Colombia, is spreading worldwide.
A little over 75 miles of Bogotá's roadway are turned over each Sunday to the Ciclovía, and as many as one-and-a-half million Bogotanos come out to bike or ride.
Photograph by Juan Cristóbal Cobo, National Geographic
ByAlma Guillermoprieto
Photographs byJuan Cristóbal Cobo
Bogotá, ColombiaIt's like falling in love all over again; every Sunday without fail, and holidays too, the inhabitants of the car-choked, noise-filled, stressed-out city of Bogotá, 8,660 feet up in the thin air of the Andes, get to feel that the city belongs to them, and not to the 1,600,000 suicidal private cars, 50,000 homicidal taxis, nine thousand gasping buses, and some half-million demented motorcycles that otherwise pack into the buzzing capital of Colombia.
The Ciclovía's director, Bibiana Sarmiento, said that in a highly stratified society like Colombia's one of the things she loves about the program is its egalitarian nature.
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The weekly miracle occurs at an event you could call the Peaceful Community Gathering on Wheels, but is actually named the Ciclovía, or Bicycle Way. Starting at seven in the morning and until two in the afternoon, vast stretches of the city's principal avenues and highways are turned over to everyone looking to enjoy a bit of fresh air. All kinds of transportation are welcome—bicycles, roller skates, scooters, wheelchairs, skateboards—as long as they are not motor-driven.
The Ciclovía isn't just for cycling—it's for napping, doing pushups, and running, too.
Photographs by Juan Cristóbal Cobo, National Geographic
A little over 75 miles (120 kilometers) of roadway are turned over to the Sunday Ciclovía and—just to get one last statistic out of the way—a slightly wobbly census shows that as many as one-and-a-half million Bogotanos come out on Sunday to bike or ride. The extremely lazy are free to stroll.
And eat. And dance. And people watch. Along the Séptima Norte stretch of the Ciclovía, which cuts through a narrow park in an upper class section of the city, flaneurs fill sidewalk cafes, their dogs parked below their chairs, baby strollers alongside. Nearby, a capoeira group rehearses, and a bit further several dozen tai chi students push the air gently away in this direction and that.
The Ciclovía has recreovia, or Fun Stops, along the way. At this particular one a killer salsa band sets up most Sundays, right after a Zumba instructor stops yelling loud enough to be heard three blocks away. For the aspirationally trim, fruit salad and orange juice are available for sale curbside. A cup of sliced green mango can be bought at a little mango-shaped cart across the way.
There's good people-watching at the Ciclovía.
"The most important thing is the social fabric that gets woven [among people who use] the Ciclovía," said Bibiana Sarmiento, a young woman who started out as a skater and guardián for the Ciclovía fourteen years ago and now runs the whole program. Among the innovations her team is working on are free, twice-monthly bike lessons for all ages, and areas alongside the bike path where parents can read to their children.
"The Ciclovía is the moment when motor vehicles make way for human beings," said Sarmiento. "Our objective is to make citizens take over the city's public space."
A bicycle built for two.
Birth of an idea
How is it that the capital of a poor country beset by fratricidal violence for long decades, sorely lacking in so many of the basic urban disciplines, came up with an idea that has been taken up by urbanists and forward-thinking politicians all over the world?
In 1976, drivers liked to park their cars straight across sidewalks that existed mostly in the wealthier parts of the city, and traffic lights were considered an encouragement to test how many red ones one could drive through. Even so, it was then that a group of prominent citizens—Bogotá was still the kind of city that had Prominent Citizens—lobbied for this unheard of thing, a Sunday bicycle path.
"Until then, bicycles were used by the pharmacy delivery boy," Paul Bromberg said the other day. "But the Sunday path coincided with a new awareness of fitness and a boom in the social category called 'youth,' which cuts through all the social classes. The idea took off."
Twenty years later, Bromberg was in charge of something called Citizen Culture, in the ground-breaking administration of Antanas Mockus, a mathematician of Lithuanian descent who, as mayor from 1995 to 1997 and then again from 2001 to 2003, focused on just what Bromberg's job title says: creating a more informed and active citizenry through education and culture.
One could argue that the Ciclovía changed the idea of the city for mayors and urbanists who have installed Ciclovía all over the world—from New Zealand to Europe to China—and for any number of Sunday celebrants as well.
Young actors trained as mimes were posted at crosswalks to encourage drivers not to invade pedestrian space, and to wait for stoplights to fully change from red to green before charging into the crossroad. City officials talked trash, and how to recycle it. And, adopting a plan drawn up by the brother of Enrique Peñalosa, who would become Bogotá's second groundbreaking mayor in 1998, Mockus took up the old existing Sunday bike path program and morphed it into the Ciclovía: a gentle, slow-motion party in which what happens on the sidelines is as much a part of the show as the ride down the closed-off avenues.
Ciclovía is also a place for performers and activists.
A celebration of food and culture
"Frankly, I just come for the food," said one salivating young woman standing in front of Orlando Paez's grilled corn-on-the-cob and arepa cart, on the Boyacá Norte stretch of the Ciclovía. Looking at Paez' immaculate kitchen on wheels, I regretted my own prudent breakfast: in addition to the corn roasting over live coals that the young woman was waiting for so impatiently, there were empanadas, yucca dumplings, and steaming hot, cheese-filled arepas, charred just a little from the grill, which I could have ordered stuffed with scrambled eggs made on the spot.
Waiting for one of these treats to come off the grill, I could have ordered fresh-squeezed orange juice from a neighboring cart. Coffee, no doubt, could be acquired from a wandering vendor with a series of thermoses packed on his back for coffee, hot milk, and aguapanela, a hot drink made with raw sugar.
Cyclists claim the streets, and the half pipes.
Not only the food was livelier at this squarely middle and working-class part of the city. In contrast to the half-dozen or so timid exercisers who keep the zumba instructors company at the upper-class Virrey Fun Stop, there were easily two hundred women, plus a few men, in front of the Colina shopping center, working it for the instructors as if they were about to head to a Broadway audition, to the tune of Colombian salsa and cumbia classics.
Mechanics help to save the day, one flat tire at a time.
"One gets bored just going from home to work and back again," said Martha Cubillos, a pleasant general services employee for the city who said she had biked with her husband to the Ciclovía from the far outskirts of town. She could stand to lose a little weight, according to her doctor, "so I come here every eight days and they teach us how to do aerobics."
Was the Ciclovía one of the things she liked best about Bogotá? Oh, definitely. She took a swig of water and jumped back into the sweaty throng.
Ciclovía's director, Sarmiento, said that in a highly stratified society like Colombia's one of the things she loves about the program is its egalitarian nature. "No one cares about the clothes you're wearing or what social class you're from: everyone is welcome, and everyone is equal," she'd said. The line-up of bikes leaning next to each other alongside the Zumba class—some rusted and wobbly, some with comfortably upholstered seats—supported that statement.
What good does it do?
Bromberg, the former director of Citizen Culture, who later served as a well-regarded interim mayor, emerged from his stint in politics and public policy with a certain amount of skepticism about how much lasting change one can effect through government. "We live in countries where the state is weak and has few resources," he said. "Incoming politicians propose any number of difficult things that turn out to be impossible to achieve. So then they build parks: pruning trees and keeping a lawn mowed is cheap."
A young cyclist rides past a guard at the presidential palace, the Casa de Nariño.
Perhaps, if Bromberg is right, the Ciclovía he helped create isn´t such a big deal. Certainly it doesn't help provide desperately needed public transportation and better-quality education, or bring order to the vast improvised communities of migrants from the recently war-torn countryside.
But one could argue that Bromberg and Mockus and Peñalosa's Ciclovía changed the idea of the city for mayors and urbanists who have installed Ciclovías all over the world—from New Zealand to Europe to China—and for any number of Sunday celebrants as well. I had been struck by how calm the bikers and strollers I talked to seemed, their trusting willingness to provide a private phone number, the lack of shouting and conflict everywhere.
"We see the change in behavior," Sarmiento confirmed. "During the week if a policeman approaches to recommend a different conduct, everyone will answer [aggressively.] "On Sundays, people will do as the policeman asks. On Sundays, citizens become tolerant."
And so it seemed on a brilliant Sunday afternoon. This month marks the 25th anniversary of the modern-style Ciclovía, and the peaceable kingdom it has helped create was very much on view.
Vehicular traffic compared to bike traffic during a Thursday night Nocturnal Ciclovía.
Alma Guillermoprieto writes frequently about Latin America for National Geographic.
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These days happen. You might want to rethink the banana chips. They taste great but they are pretty calorie intensive for such a small quantity. It's normal to fall off the rails from time to time. UI just found out how much my car is going to cost me to keep on the road for another year. I'm really having to drink a whole lot of water to keep from putting something else in my mouth.