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SCENARIO NARRATIVES
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS PLANNING PROCESS
As collaborative tools, scenarios allow multiple stakeholders to address issues such as sustainability that do not conform to typical "expert report" solutions. Sometimes, issues and solutions are clear; the problem of a broken leg and what to do about it is a good example. Alternatively, the issue may be clear, but the solution is not; with arthritis, the patient and doctor know the problem but are not sure of the treatment. In other situations, like sustainability, both the issue and the response are unclear. Here, the definition of sustainability--and the solution--lies with stakeholders; experts only advise because the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainability transcend any single discipline.
Scenarios are powerful tools for putting the world in a fresh light and to explore new ideas, such as sustainability. What wind tunnels are to new airplane design, scenarios can be to future energy and transportation strategies: instructive simulations of possible operating conditions. As wind tunnel testing leads to a stronger, faster airplane, scenarios can help put the nation on a more sustainable path.
This approach, is extraordinarily valuable in its ability to address the nature of sustainability. "Sustainability" implies a future condition of society in which technology is in harmony with the natural world, economic needs are met, and social equity and justice are assured. Instead of dealing with present disagreements, scenarios help to help a consensus--a shared vision--about a sustainable future.
The Sustainable Energy and Transportation Scenarios Project yielded important lessons that were critical to the development of the Energy and Transportation Task Force goals and policy recommendations for the Council's consideration. The Global Business Network, a consultant with considerable experience developing scenarios for strategic and policy planning, was retained to facilitate the project and help provide management and logistics support.
The project began by drawing together the wealth of existing research to understand the dynamics shaping the energy and transportation sectors. Members identified the factors and elements that significantly influence energy and transportation, including economic structure and performance, environmental issues, degree of social equity, technology developments, population changes, land use and community design, societal values, and political developments.
These so-called driving forces were combined in different ways to lay out 15 preliminary paths--scenarios--these sectors may take by the year 2025. After further research and information gathering, members more fully developed and refined alternative scenarios. (As part of the Council's regional visit to the Great Lakes area in July of 1994, Council members and the public were given the opportunity to comment on the scenarios project and the progress to date.) Later, characteristics of energy and transportation use in each scenario were assigned numerical values according to the "plot" of each scenario narrative. These characteristics were modeled to compare the energy and transportation use patterns of each possible future. As a reminder, scenarios are not predictions: they describe how the future "might," not "should," unfold.
THE WAY WE ARE
This is a world where gradual change continues, but the future is not necessarily a mirror of the past. The restructuring of the global economy is the major force shaping this scenario. Fragmentation, not cooperation, keeps people's lives a bit unsettled. Event with mixed signals, however, incremental improvements abound giving most people, but not all, a sense of progress. A shifting job market in the United States and the resulting underemployment keep real incomes stagnant in many sectors well into the new century. In this world, people are more mobile, but also face increasing congestion. Although energy stays relatively abundant and cheap, other issues, including environmental concerns, encourage protracted policy debates. Looking back from 2025, observers would note that most Americans are better off, in part due to technology instead of rapidly increasing incomes, but remain concerned about chronic social problems and a latent perception that the United States is no longer the world's leading economic power.
On June 10, 2000, the Economist's cover story on "America: Boom, Bust, Muddle...or Work Still in Progress?" described the restructuring economy of the U.S. With the pace of industrialization accelerating among "newly exporting countries," (these include: China, other Asian nations, Latin America), the advanced industrialized countries were caught in mature, but slow growth patterns. overall productivity was relatively flat. Furthermore, a continuation of trends present in today's economy (including corporate restructuring, increased foreign and domestic competition, higher returns to education, etc.) meant that modest increases in real income experienced in the United States were increasingly unevenly distributed.
Southern California in 1994 foreshadowed the economic future of the United States: large firms downsized and moved manufacturing operations to less costly states, while new, small manufacturers, including high-tech, employed low-cost labor (many immigrants) and paid limited benefits. Economic activity was becoming much less cyclical because of the globalization of production and finance as well as the impending convergence of factor costs between the developed and developing world. The inventory dance, which had been a major business cycle driver, was nearly gone, undermined by just-in-time production paradigms and an enormous supply of substitutable capacity in the world market, easily accessible through information technology. The cyclical dance of inflation and higher interest rates was similarly subdued by global capital markets--but so were most real wages in the United States as global competition demanded tight cost controls. Overall, U.S. population growth continued, albeit slowly, as the Sunbelt and the Northwest grew rapidly and immigration remained steady. In developing countries, population continued to burgeon and environmental problems, such as drinking water and air pollution, increasingly plagued nations.
Internationally, developing countries generally followed the U.S. model of industrialization but the pace was more rapid; persistent conflicts, however, inhibited closer political and economic ties, including expanded trade with partners like Japan. On the positive side, advances in technology and its diffusion allowed faster infrastructure development in many countries compared to historical patterns. By 1994 in China, for example, a country with limited telephone service, pagers, and telephones, were linking this emerging giant with the global economy. But on a pessimistic note, the United States and other industrialized countries were troubled by chronic conflicts across the globe, as a new world order evolved far more slowly than anyone imagined following the end of the Cold War. The U.S. was stuck paying world policemen more than desired because without its leadership cooperative multilateral partnerships were difficult to establish.
Far from being discouraging, U.S. productivity started to improve by the late 1990s thanks to the expanding use of information technology. Throughout the end of the 1990s, new entrepreneurs and small businesses proliferated and grew as work-at-home and telecommuting increased (which also allowed suburbs to continue expanding). Exports of services continued to grow rapidly as financial and education-entertainment firms sold bytes not goods. By 2015, the value of services easily dwarfed the value of trade, much like capital flows overwhelmed goods in the 1980s. "More with less" became the corporate maxim of the new century. But there was a cost: unequal growth in jobs and incomes. Fewer higher paying jobs, longer retraining transitions, and stagnant real wages kept many people frustrated, particularly in urban areas.
Primary energy remained relatively cheap and abundant. Oil imports to the United States continued to account for a high percentage of supply as the world price stayed relatively low (in the $20-28 per barrel range). The supply of domestic coal was never in doubt and natural gas reserves seemed to be replenished with modest price increases. Retail wheeling in electricity took off slowly, as states and public utility commissions argued over jurisdictional issues. Natural gas share of generation slowly increased, as independent power producers (IPPs) grew. Efficiency gradually increased in most energy sectors. Technological improvements also were evident, enabling improved oil recovery and clean coal techniques in particular.
Existing land-use patterns continued, as the fast growing edge cities in the suburbs sprawled across the country. Much of the growth was away from decaying urban cores, where high unemployment, persistent social ills, and decaying infrastructure stymied redevelopment plans. Some cities, like Portland, Oregon fostered local urban growth and the Empowerment Zones implemented in 1994 proved to be an effective catalyst for growth in the cities where they were established. Improved telecommunications allowed growth to spread into rural areas as jobs and corporate operations shifted locations to control costs. Automobiles remained the primary transport mode, but vehicle miles traveled started to flatten by 2010 as growing traffic congestion and telecommunications (shopping-at-home made a difference) affected transport volumes. Transportation energy use began to decline as more efficient vehicles, developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, started in 1993, became a larger part of the vehicle fleet. America's continued love affair with mobility and freedom made gas or other energy taxes politically unfeasible, although some small increases were pushed through primarily to generate revenue to fix roads and bridges.
The greatest successes were political as the economy and persistent social ills forced protracted, if not polarized, policy debates. While real incomes grew slowly in the United States, the benefits of this growth were distributed unevenly. Lack of investment in infrastructure (let alone rebuilding) continued in most cities as budgets were tight. Chronic urban problems increased antagonism between federal, state, and local governments as viable solutions were not forthcoming. Violent crime fell slowly, due, in part, to the "three strikes, you're out" initiative that spread throughout the United States but also because of the simple demographics: fewer at-risk youth and young adults. Nevertheless, high crime levels persisted overall as the "have nots" grew across racial, gender and class distinctions. Education improved in most parts of the country, partly driven by the information superhighway, but disparities in access and knowledge levels continued to divide America.
In this world, the environment was only one of the many competing issues. As developing countries grew, pollution and a gradual destruction of the environment (air, water, forests, habitats) were increasingly evident, especially because global competition favored cheaper, less efficient, dirtier technologies. While global greenhouse gas concentration continued to increase, the U.S. emissions growth rate proved difficult to decrease. Air quality slowly improved in many urban areas, including Los Angeles (e.g., the Clean Air Act standards were attained in most cities post-2010), as tighter rules and cleaner cars made a difference. However, both ozone and particulate levels remained at levels close, though generally below, the legal standards. Many local areas addressed their own environmental issues, such as drinking water, but coordination at state and federal levels was fraught with delays. Politically, frustrated voters brought forth multiple candidates for public offices at all levels of government, a new trend that marked differing interests and agendas. While most Americans felt better off in 2024, many still feared for their lifestyles and jobs as a new world economy continued reshaping the map.
Early Indicators of This Scenario
Incremental shifts only.
Congestion affects more cities and suburbs.
Oil imports continue as high percentage of U.S. totals.
Lengthy, polarized policy debates.
Social ills (poverty, crime, etc.) continue to grow, with little impact from legislative efforts.
Multi-candidate elections.
Increasing gap between rich and poor, both nationally and internationally.
Persistent regional conflicts internationally.
On the first Earth Day in 1970, Time magazine declared "The Decade of the Environment." But while environmental issues were very much on the larger political agenda, two oil crises, double digit inflation, a volatile economy, and stagflation all helped to move the environment issue away from center stage. In the 1990s, sustainability once again became a major political issue, but in competition with an array of stubborn social problems, all demanding immediate attention and resources. Deja vu? Some feared a similar tale--that the environment would fade again--but others saw a value shift toward a broader social context and understanding of sustainability. Indeed, history did not repeat itself but instead followed a new script for the next 30 years.
A widening income gap was a major driver. Most income growth was concentrated in the upper 20 percent of households, which produced a skewed distribution. From the 1970s to the 1990s, the middle class shrank while the poor and the working poor increased proportionally. There was no universal consensus about the cause of this trend, but many cited slow economic growth, changes in the tax code, and reductions in social benefits.
This is a world where social and economic priorities overwhelm environmental ones, at least temporarily. Over the course of the 1990s, a new social consensus emerges in the United States that acknowledge that the widening gap in incomes and advancement opportunities is not sustainable. In part, this consensus is driven by a growing lower-middle class, which increasingly crosses racial and gender distinctions, as well as by a restructuring economy which disenfranchises traditional workers--the heart of middle America--who face fewer and lower paying jobs. The groundwork for this scenario was laid in the 1970s, when the average American made limited economic progress, real income growth slowed, and many began sliding backwards. As the trend continued into the 1990s, concerns about social justice came into the forefront--a concern that already motivated many environmentally concerned citizens. The Inclusive Development scenario presents the story of a new political bargain that delays the timing of environmental progress.
Industrial restructuring was another critical factor. For years, the U.S. economy had been moving away from manufacturing towards services and information-based jobs. The problem: transitions took time, often with significant costs. Many experienced job and income losses in the 1980s and early 1990s as firms downsized, jobs went abroad, and benefits were cut. Behind these changes was the battle over a share of the economic benefits between workers, capital (both equity and debt), and consumer value. The interests of workers were on the losing end as the dream of ever-increasing standards of living was effectively shattered, and leaner companies battled global competition with fewer workers.
As the 20th century ended, growing international market competition and persistent regional conflicts buffeted clear policy choices. While trade conflicts between the United States and Japan continued, the Asian "tigers" continued to worsen and interest rates slowly climbed to keep a hold on inflation (yet at a price: slower growth). For the average worker, frustration with jobs translated into dismay at foreign policies and the appropriate U.S. role, as in Rwanda and Haiti, even Cuba. Immigration slowed as officials tightened entry policies. But historical isolationist--and protectionist--tensions grew as the U.S. economy sputtered with GDP growth stuck in the low two percent range.
The decline of inner cities in the 1960s-1980s spread outward to many inner suburban areas in the late 1990s as more households fell out of the middle class due to the loss of higher wage manufacturing jobs and replacement by lower wage service employment. New housing and job growth was concentrated in a new third ring of automobile-dependent edge cities and suburbs, which stimulated a continued rise in vehicle miles of travel, vehicle trips per capita and suburban traffic congestion. Transportation investment continued to fall short of the growth in demand while federal tax policies and local zoning regulations continued to encourage low density development. The share of jobs accessible to public transportation continued to fall through the 1990s, excluding many urban workers from employment opportunities and leading to a shortage of labor for lower pay service work in many affluent outer suburban areas, where affordable housing was often excluded by local policies.
By 2000, the growing number of disenfranchised reached a political crescendo. Rallies and picket lines protesting worsening inequities, combined with widespread frustration over environmental problems that disproportionately affected the poor spurred a nationwide campaign to address the social and economic issues effectively. In 2000 the social justice agenda was echoed in multi-candidate election campaigns in nearly every state, in the mass media, and by a growing percentage of the public (especially those with new, lower paying jobs). National political parties fractured to include and redress these issues. Environmentalists often found their agenda blocked by those who would bear the costs most heavily. Economic and social concerns about such issues as education, crime, drugs, and unemployment pushed aside most environmental issues, though battle scars of long time advocates were long and deep. By 2002, the fading memory of the near victorious anti-NAFTA coalition between environmentalists and labor led advocates on both sides to propose a new social compact: poverty first, then the environment. Businesses adjusted to this new compact by giving more in wages and benefits to workers, raising prices, on many items and delaying costly efforts to protect the environment.
The strong trend toward deregulation and free market solutions to economic issues slowed dramatically, as regulators were forced to consider job impacts. Evidence became clear as the movement toward retail wheeling in electricity markets was slowed dramatically and only a piecemeal program of wholesale electric wheeling was allowed. In the transportation sector, job creating highway and urban mass transit systems were broadly supported at state and local levels.
By late 2002, a series of gradual reconciliations to unfold as specific policy steps. The Administration was confronted with a clear consensus to improve economic growth--even at the expense of environmental issues; to ameliorate the pain of economic restructuring and facilitate necessary labor force transitions; to shift the tax burden toward the better-off, and finally, to seriously address chronic social concerns. Although most of these issues had been part of the broader agenda of the early 1990s, the political will, backed by clear popular support, had been lacking at that time.
This shift in values toward broader public concerns was not unprecedented in U.S. history. Arthur Schlesinger Jr., in his book The Cycles of American History, suggested how the pendulum swung between private and collective phases. After decades of focusing on private lives, social costs accumulate and create pressure for a renewed focus on the public realms, and vice-versa. The two decades of the 1970s and 1980s, he argued, were characterized by personal and private concerns which led to a "swing" back as America entered the 1990s.
The first hurdle was Congress. There was strong resistance to the Administration's proposals. The "no more taxes" and anti-income redistribution sentiments were still very much alive. Many believed that social problems should be solved at the local level; that individuals should be responsible for their fate in life; and that there was no role for the federal government. The Administration proposals could not get past the filibuster.
By 2004, a new Congress emerged, heavy with representatives of the emerging social consensus. The decimal census of the year 2000 and resulting redistricting brought a sufficient majority to pass Administration proposals. As new policies and resources started to flow to local communities, the sense of hopelessness started to lift for many.
Technology, education and training, and reforms in governance all played a key role in bringing about this new social agenda. New public transit technologies became a vehicle for both job creation and improved living conditions for those with limited transit options. The information superhighway played a key role in providing an easier way for the formerly disenfranchised to be heard, as voting by phone and other communication techniques were used to access voters. A re-emphasis on quality education penetrated even tough urban communities, which, along with targeted investment programs, began to turn the tide against crime and to improve the quality of lives. As the sophisticated service economy developed more stable, high value-added jobs, wages began a virtuous circle upward. More often than note, reduced environmental impacts were a side benefit.
Limited innovation or change was evident in energy sectors. Oil was relatively cheap (in the $19-25 range), while oil imports to the United States remained high. More efficient energy and transport changes were hampered as a result of reduced research and development funding and capital investments, resulting from shifting funds in the federal budget towards social programs. Utility deregulation was limited, as public utility commissions were increasingly concerned with access, service, and cost considerations. Natural gas shares in power generation continued to slowly increase, primarily for peak load generation. The price of alternative energy continued to decrease, but slowly, and their share of generation (as well as vehicle fleet penetration) grew slowly. Limited technological progress and efficiency gains were achieved by 2010.
By the later years of the first decade of the 21st century, a new social compact was clearly in place. A combination of public policy, individual responsibility, and economic evolution was producing strong economic growth, renewing the sense of community, and accelerating the creation of good jobs. For example, the rebuilding of urban infrastructure provided many jobs. The gap between the top and bottom income brackets had narrowed, not by lowering the top but by bringing up the bottom. Somewhat more restrictive immigration policies led to the stabilization of U.S. population. This helped, in part, to focus public and private resources. Now that a solid economic and social foundation had been reestablished and standards of living improved, a broader agenda, including the environment, began to unfold.
Internationally, the U.S. lead in addressing equity concerns was not mirrored by most developing countries, as the high returns needed to attract risk capital for economic development dominated their agendas. By 2010, however, growing social problems and resource conflicts throughout the globe convinced many leaders to reconsider domestic priorities.
Following a decade of further debate, research, and innovation, another stage of social-environmental consensus emerged around 2015, accelerating environmental progress. New economic indicators measured, among other things, industrial throughput (e.g.,new measures of efficiency and waste), natural capital use, and quality of life. Moreover, the "greening" of America, was mirrored overseas. Europe had struggled with the same question as the United States and had followed a similar path. By 2025, many industrialized nations were stronger economically, more equitable, and living in greater harmony with nature, although few developing countries had achieved similar stability and balance. But a question lingered in the minds of many policy makers. Did this same social and economic development logic apply to the richer old millions of the industrialized world and the poor young billions of the developing world?
Current difficulties of moving environmental legislation.
Growing social problems.
Concern about the distributive impact of costs.
Election of Clinton/Gore in 996.
Growing political power of social/equity non-government organizations.
On October 17, 2001, Hurricane Daniel slammed into North and South Carolina, with insured losses totalling more than $30 billion, almost twice those from Andrew in 1992. The following year Hurricane Barbara struck the Gulf Coast, with losses of "just" $10 billion, but the major story was the typhoon and tsunami that hit Japan causing damaged well beyond $300 billion. When combined with an increased frequency of droughts and heat waves in the Midwest, scientific and public concern about climate variability was heightened further. During the late 1990s, for the first time in recent history, severe crop losses and rising agricultural prices had surprised the nation. As the nation reeled and the insurance industry pushed for more federal insurance coverage for natural events, Hurricane Chelsea smashed into the mid-Atlantic in 2003, causing 1500 deaths and $50 billion in estimated damages as far inland as Philadelphia and Washington. This series of events, along with similar weather volatility in other parts of the world, produced turmoil in major global capitals as political leaders struggled with appropriate responses. But far from a "surprise" attack, scientists and meteorologists showed that the stage had been set for some time.
Scientific evidence, based on the latest "complexity" models of atmospheric change, showed that the increased climatic variability was indeed probably the result of greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere, principally the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion. But scientists remained incapable of making specific predictions about the rate and magnitude of global change, and how such changes might be distributed. For Congress and the Japanese Diet, however, the short-term economic consequences were pretty clear: a decimated insurance industry; major financial losses and weak stock markets; and a need to create large deficits. This combination put the world economy into a mini-tailspin, to say the least. In the U.S., environmental and technological progress slowed as government-led crisis management made things worse before any improvements could take hold. U.S. economic growth dropped to 1.5 percent for the rest of the decade and only slowly started creeping upward by 2020.
ECO-CRISIS
In this future, the onset of global climate change is characterized by increasing weather variability and turbulence, which quickly reaches crisis intensity by the year 2001. This phenomenon is not limited to the United States, as Asia (particularly Japan), Europe and other parts of the globe are hard hit. Following close behind are two nuclear accidents in Europe, which surprise and shock the world. The response in the international community is a realization that closer cooperation, not competition and further fragmentation, are the key to future survival and prosperity. A series of steps, which move beyond strictly environmental concerns to include trade and security, is taken to restructure and ensure a more harmonious relationship between the environment, industrialization, and economic development.
The response in the United States, quite apart from emergency actions, involved a series of measures in 2004 addressing climate change, including:
Immediately restricting greenhouse gases and other climate change agents, at high cost to many industries.
Launching a radical, government-sponsored, energy-reducing demand-side management programs.
Initiating a government-funded research and development program for technologies to reduce climate change agents.
Extensively promoting and exporting technologies to reduce climate change agents to developing countries, particularly China, to restructure old energy infrastructure.
Implementing an extensive biomass energy program, including reforestation of some areas and the halting of old growth logging.
Supporting broader research in long term health, agricultural, and ecological effects of raised CO2 levels.
Just as parts of the U.S. economy were reviving in 2007 (cyclical versus longer term recovery due to recessionary impact of policy measures), two nuclear accidents effectively eliminated the nuclear option as a workable response to climate changes. In one accident, a severe cold spell in the depth of winter pushed electricity loads to record highs and a reactor vessel head failed in a generation station. These accidents, although shocking, had their greatest effect in convincing U.S. leaders that substituting nuclear power for fossil fuels was not viable.
In the aftermath of the climate and nuclear crises, extensive emergency and longer term policy measures were enacted in the United States, with similar measures being adopted in other countries. While a new global environment summit was being held in 2008 (which, among other things, strengthened the Framework Convention on Climate Change), a "Sustainability Act" was passed quickly by Congress with bipartisan support. Because this comprehensive bundle of sustainability policies was carefully researched during the 1990s as part of an ongoing debate about sustainability, it had the advantage of not being thrown together as a panic measure. The legislation included, among other things, carbon taxes, removal of subsidies for fossil fuels, transition "packages" to assist particular industries, subsidies for wind, solar, and battery storage energy systems, large investments in public transit, various taxes to discourage auto use, and measures to address social equity issues, such as sector job losses.
Various energy sectors were hard hit, with most in transition. Oil prices jumped quickly due to CO2 taxes, with oil imports declining as a result. Most nuclear power was phased out over a 10-15 year timeframe. Utility deregulation slowed, as government and transition programs took time and resources to implement. Natural gas at rising prices increasingly replaced a significant share of fossil and coal-fired power plant capacity, based primarily on the grounds of efficiency, but with only a relatively small reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Renewables gained the most, with increased research and development and government support encouraging their growth. A major focus on new technology, research and development, and efficiency was evident throughout the industry, with many companies attempting to diversity assets and expertise.
Transportation and land use problems, however, continued to plague most cities. The sharp rise in fossil fuel costs, along with lower income growth, spurred many upper and middle class families toward pockets of gentrification with better public and private transportation systems, leaving many urban cores behind facing poverty and racial tensions. Income inequality had indeed grown sharper. The irony was that higher fuel costs also improved automobile technology and allowed more vehicle options. Small electric vehicles, though limited in power and range, became popular as short trip vehicles. Super lean burning hybrid vehicles also entered the market fueled partially by gasoline and electric/natural gas components. Motor vehicle use had continued to grow, despite the crises, but at a slower rate.
The effect on the world economy was sobering well into the second decade of the new century, as industrial transitions occurred over time. The world economic growth rate was stuck between 1.5 and 2 percent during the crises, although there was widespread cooperation and consensus on economic stability measures. Population growth, both in the United States and internationally, had slowed. Following the crises, industrialized countries led the way with new measures of growth and prosperity that were less throughput dependent. Most developing countries, however, were stuck in traditional growth paradigms and stubbornly resisted further cooperation; a major difficulty was enforcement and compliance in environmental stabilization programs. This political dilemma between industrialized and poorer countries perplexed leaders and paralyzed closer global economic ties and new institutional arrangements. More regional conflicts, particularly eco-wars, emerged by 2014 as acute environmental degradation ignited resource conflicts. Industrialized countries, including the United States, were not only frustrated but the effects were felt economically with slow growth rates. What was heralded as a new era of economic and environmental harmony at the global summit in 2008 was caught in international bickering and endless talks. A level playing field, let alone full global cooperation and enforcement, did not emerge by 2025.
Continuing weather "surprises," for example, hundred year events.
Droughts in Midwest and parts of the Northwest.
Crop yields in Midwest declining.
Record number of forest fires, primarily in the West.
Increased frequency and severity of hurricanes in Southeast.
Evidence of decline or distress in various species as a result of climatic pressure.
In late 1997, two major studies emerged linking birth defects and children's health problems with environmental causes. The initial reaction in the United States was shock, then outrage, especially among young families (particularly baby boomers). State and federal government agencies were deluged with questions and requests for more information, and elected officials were put on notice to act. Far from being a surprise, evidence had been building for some time. In the previous two years, for example, more research had started to emerge concerning health-related links to the environment. In one study, U.S. cancer rates were shown to increase for each generation; in another study, in Norway, birth defects were shown to have tentative links to environmental factors. Both of these studies cited exposure to toxins, pesticides, even diet, as possible key determinants. These and other studies, increasingly popularized in the media, had raised public concern. While the birth defect link was only one more example of environmental degradation, somehow it was the final straw for many Americans. A grounswell of talk and latent concern about the environment turned into more conscious action and behavioral changes. Consumer reaction, for example, was surprising: demand for green products and services grew by 24 percent in the first quarter of 1998. Government and business leaders scrambled at first--wondering whether this was just a short-term phenomenon--but additional evidence linking lifestyles, health, and the environment continued to emerge over the next couple of years.
The timing, in retrospect, was fortuitous, as the U.S. economy was poised for significant growth from restructuring. Productivity, technological innovation, and the development of new services from information technology fueled the restructuring. Strong growth in late 1994 set the stage, with traditional exports like manufactured goods growing and the trade balance improving. But by mid 1996, the statistics told a more interesting story: services were exploding and without any regard to familiar trade patterns. Financial, information technology, and education-entertainment services led the charge around the globe. Statistical indicators of a new post-industrial revolution showed sustained growth in overall U.S. productivity by 1997--and clearly highlighted the long hoped for services productivity boost. Other advanced industrial nations tried to follow the U.S. lead, with trade discussions more likely to focus on new technological alliances rather than heated agricultural bashing. By 2004, under the new World Trade Organization, 120 nations signed an international agreement for broad protection of intellectual property rights and information services.
ECO-ECO-TECH
This is a world of increasing environmental awareness linked with a strong U.S. (and global) economy, technological developments, and governmental initiatives to create cooperative "win-win" solutions. Many of the pieces were already in place by the 1990s but much like the advent of personal computers and their promise of increased productivity, the network linkages and timing are key. Other developed countries follow the U.S. lead, but equity disparities slow the rest of the world. Unlike the previous scenarios, this world is driven by the values of the baby boomers, who occupy top management and policy positions and favor market and incentive-based approaches. But as this scenario plays out, not everyone in society benefits from these technological changes, and economic and environmental improvements.
Similar shifts were evident in employment statistics as service jobs continued their historic climb. The big difference, however, was that salaries were also rising. The supply of trained workers simply could not keep up with rising service demand, which heightened upward wage pressure (population, including immigration, was still growing in the United States,but this did not translate immediately into more skilled workers). By 2000, the Commerce Department revamped its statistical system, not only to report services trade but also to integrate more environmental full-cost accounting (including natural capital depletion) into national accounts.
Technological innovation, and informational technology in particular, were critical components of this shift. Information technology effectively reframed the utility industry, for example, with California's restructuring of retail electricity markets leading the country, and spot and future price markets for electricity emerging nationwide by 2004. Improved electricity efficiency reduced costs, expanded uses, and provided more customer choice. The information superhighway made a larger difference than most imagined by 2010, as education "tele-links" and corporate telecommuting networks spanned the nation. Information technology also had a significant impact on transportation; by the year 2000, automated traffic management schemes, such as the intelligent vehicle highway systems, were operating experimentally in Chicago and other major cities, not only to manage congestion but to reduce vehicle emissions. National labs refocused on accelerated research and development programs for environmentally appropriate technologies.
Growing traffic congestion, local government fiscal problems, and continuing air pollution gave many communities incentives to make use of new technologies and various demand-side reforms to improve local transport and land use patterns. Various states were experimenting with replacing property, event income taxes with alternative taxes on gasoline, energy and automobile use. urban redevelopment efforts were trying even more pilot projects, particularly to link transportation, jobs, and housing in various incentive schemes.
Government by the late 1990s was playing a major role as a catalyst and consensus builder. In response to growing environmental awareness, the government restructured its approach to industry and provided new programs and incentives. The emphasis shifted from detailed regulation to sector-by-sector agreements and market-based legislation, including clear targets for pollution reduction. The organizing principle became "level playing fields," which ensured that companies received improved price signals and that they could profit from eco-efficient innovations. Federal technology partnerships, such as the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, with the "big three" auto makers, proved to be a successful model. By 2004, a new era of government and business relations was well under way, which recognized the compatibility of pursuing economic and environmental objectives together. Indeed, these objectives reinforced each other and generated even stronger economic performance in future years.
Improved international relations played a small but important role as the United Nations emerged more fully as an international arbiter and security guarantor. Instead of a world policeman, the U.S. was able to shift into a multilateral partner role in regional conflicts. Many conflicts continued to flare, but a growing world economy defused most with new assistance programs. The largest stumbling block, however, was continued environmental degradation in many parts of the world, such as continuing rainforest lost in the Amazon and widespread desertification in Africa. New international incentives and "carrots" were proposed, but compliance was simply lacking in many regions.
Energy and transportation reflected the changing paradigm of a technologically driven economy, which by being more productive and efficient, was alsoless dirty. Oil prices remained relatively low (in the $20-23 per barrel range, due to low demand), while government and market incentives pushed natural gas growth, renewables, and other alternatives. A new national gas grid network emerged in the late 1990s, which allowed Compressed Natural Gas-hybrid vehicles to penetrate the vehicle market beyond the use in commercial and government fleets. Electric vehicles were also a growing segment, with California mandates spreading across the country. Competition forced major reconfiguration of the utility industry as independent power producers, relying primarily on natural gas and co-generation, increasingly dominated electric power generation. Coal was still used for most base generation (using clean, gasification systems), while nuclear was increasingly phased out as a result of high costs and large centralized characteristics. Worsening suburban and urban gridlock in the late 1990s spurred adoption of congestion pricing on existing and new roads, smart express high occupancy vehicle energy and more widespread telecommuting. New car designs dramatically reduced vehicle energy consumption after 2000. Car design moved quickly to incorporate elements of the "supercar:" hybrid mechatronic drive trains powered by electricity; "clean" oil-based fuels or hydrogen; and life-cycle production and recycling. New "leapfrog" supercar manufacturers emerged with short product cycles and low overhead to serve consumers who were willing to pay more for new, greener innovations.
By 2010, the American economic-environmental boom had increased the standard of living for most citizens, although many inequities still remained. Instead of using income and wealth as the traditional measures of well being, the new economy was distinguished by knowledge, information, and environmental quality of life, such as clean air and water. Real wages were increasing for most workers. Total unemployment continued to fall as the number of entrepreneurs and new businesses grew, often out of homes with high-tech linkages. Urban cores and rural areas, however, continued to lag as new "knowledge" skills left many behind. High-tech redefined crime, shifting much of its focus to digital networks, where boundary-less worlds were difficult, if not impossible, to police. In general, the quality of education improved through computer access and worker retraining programs. With universal health care insurance in place by the late 1990s, most Americans were able to increase their "green" spending and regarded concern for the planet as an investment in their children's future.
Continuing health and environmental linkages research.
A broadening of lifestyle change toward environmental awareness.
Strong U.S. economic growth, especially in the high technology sector.
Technological improvements, including breakthroughs.
Changing government role, particularly as catalyst and consensus builder (including perception).
Appendix B: Other Policy Options Considered


IBPS has invited the application for the post of various PO & MT in 2017. The admit card for the same has been given here. Please check the details of your exam . The official link will take you to the login page , where you can go & download the admit card.
The admit card is the most crucial document for the candidate who is going to the exam. Please check the details of recruitment from here. We are going to tell you all the details of your exam from here.
IBPS better known as Institute of Banking Personnel Selection is a private organisation that recruits deserving candidates in the various banks. The applicants who are selected needs to clear written test & Interview.
If you have applied for the IBPS CWE PO Admit card , then you can check the details from here.
Open the official website of IBPS i.e. www.ibps.in.
Open the homepage of site & clcik on 'CWE PO/MT' tab that is on the left side of the page.
Now click on the "Common Written Examination for Probationary Officer/ Management Trainee VII" link.
Click on "Download Your Call letter for CWE-PO/MT-VII" link to download the admit card.
Enter the login details of the application i.e. "Registration No / Roll No" and "Password / DOB (DD-MM-YY)" and Captcha Code.
Click on Login button to submit the details & all the system.
After successful login, you can download the admit card in the PC.
Take a print out of the admit card for the exam hall.


text:
Vasyl Ivanovych Zinkevych (; born 1 May 1945) is a Soviet and Ukrainian singer, actor, dancer and costume designer. Alongside Nazariy Yaremchuk, Sofia Rotaru and Volodymyr Ivasyuk, Zinkevych was one of the faces of the Ukrainian roots revival music of the 1970s.

Zinkevych found his initial fame as the lead singer of the Ukrainian VIA Smerichka and as the lead actor in the 1970 film Chervona Ruta. His interpretations of Volodymyr Ivasyuk's songs "Chervona ruta", "Mila moya" and "Na shvidkih poïzdah" made him known all over the Soviet Union.  He was appointed a People's Artist of Ukraine in 1995, received the Ukrainian State Prize in 1994 and became a Hero of Ukraine in 2009. Several of Zinkevych songs, as well as some of his dance choreographies, made it to the "Golden Fund of Ukrainian artistry".

Biography

Early life
Zinkevych was born several days before the end of World War II in the village of Vas'kivtsi in western Ukraine. From a young age, Zinkevych loved drawing and wanted to become a metal worker. Zinkevych then went into required Soviet military service, first being stationed in Lviv and later in Czechoslovakia. During his service, as opposed to most of his colleagues, he became engaged in dancing rather than singing or playing music.

After completing military service, he moved to the tradition-rich Bukovina region, where he thought he could learn the craftmanship of metal work best. In 1968, he moved to Vyzhnytsia and was enrolled in the College of Applied Arts. He became involved in traditional dancing at the Dom kul'tury, the local cultural centre, in the dancing ensemble Smerchina. He also started to design and stitch national costumes.

Smerichka

Early years
Composer and musician Levko Dutkivsky started a VIA named Smerichka in 1967 in that same cultural centre as in which Zinkevych danced. However, the group's main lead singer moved away from Vyzhnytsia in 1966, leaving Dutkivsky to find a new singer. When Dutkivsky struggled to find a replacement, Vasyl Vaskov, the leader of the dance ensemble Smerchina, suggested Zinkevych.

Dutkivsky taught Zinkevych to sing, and found himself pleasantly surprised by Zinkevych perseverance. However, when a local television station wanted to use a recorded version of Smerichka's song "Snizhynki padayut'", Zinkevych failed to deliver the version that Dutkivsky had desired. Television producer Vasyl Strihovych asked Dutkivsky to find another singer.

Eventually, this last version by Zinkevych was chosen over the version that Ivasyuk sang, with Ivasyuk also preferring Zinkevych's version to his own.

In 1969, Zinkevych proposed that Nazariy Yaremchuk should join the group, to which Dutkivsky agreed upon hearing the latter's singing voice.

Chervona Ruta and international recognition
In 1970, Zinkevych, without having any prior acting experience, was cast as the lead role of Boris in Chervona Ruta, one of the first Soviet television musicals. He played opposite to Sofia Rotaru, who played the female lead role Oksana. The film was debuted in 1971 and was a widespread success throughout the whole Soviet Union, but especially in Ukraine. In the film, Zinkevych sang several songs that became hits throughout Ukraine and most of the wider Soviet Union, such as "Mila moya" and "Chervona Ruta". For a long time, Zinkevych and Rotaru were miscredited to have sung "Vodohray" in the film, but the version that was played in the background was sung by Yaremchuk and Maria Isak.

Due to the group's growing popularity, Smerichka was asked to perform a song during the first annual Pesnya goda in Moscow in 1971, alongside already established names such as Iosif Kobzon, Eduard Khil and Muslim Magomayev. In their Hutsul attire, Zinkevych and Yaremchuk looked very out of place in the Russian capital. The performance however was well-received by the audience and the clear confusion of the group, who was miscredited as "Semerichka", led to humour as well.

For most of the early 1970s, Yaremchuk and Zinkevych performed as a duet and as shared lead singers of Smerichka, with sometimes Yaremchuk and other times Zinkevych taking the lead vocals. Despite Yaremchuk's growing popularity, Zinkevych was not left hurt in his pride this time. According to a fellow Smerichka singer, Zinkevych treated Yaremchuk, who had already lost both his parents by age of 20 in 1971, as a younger brother.

Move to Lutsk and Chervona Ruta. 10 Years Since
In 1975, Zinkevych decided to leave Smerichka due to his inability to deal with the pressure of having to give up to four concerts a day. Zinkevych became the main singer of the VIA Svityaz. With this, he also moved away from the Bukovina and started living in Lutsk. In 1980, he also became the artistic director of the ensemble. For his work in the Ukrainian music, he received the title "Honoured Artist of the Ukrainian SSR" in 1978.

In 1981, Zinkevych, Yaremchuk and Rotaru were featured in a short musical film, a spin-off from Chervona Ruta, titled Chervona Ruta. 10 Years Since. The film featured the artists separately reminiscing about the film and as well as presenting new songs. In the film, Zinkevych performed "Zabud' pechal' ".

Later years
After moving to Lutsk in 1975, Zinkevych had to deal with the loss of several of his former Smerichka colleagues, with Ivasyuk being found dead in 1979 and Yaremchuk dying of cancer in 1995.

Since the independence of Ukraine, Zinkevych has received numerous medals for his longstanding contribution to the Ukrainian music. He was already award "People's Artist of the Ukrainian SSR" in 1986. In 1994, he received the Shevchenko National Prize alongside Ivasyuk, who received it posthumously. In 2009, Zinkevych became Hero of Ukraine and honorary citizen of his city Lutsk. Next to being a performer, Zinkevych also designed numerous national costumes throughout the decades.

Vasyl Zinkevych played a major role in the early steps of Ruslana's career, being among the first professional musicians to see her musical potential. In a 2004 interview, he referred to her as his "artistic daughter".

In 2021, Zinkevych held a series of concerts in Palace of Ukraine in Kyiv.

Personal life
At some stage, Zinkevych married an unknown woman and had sons with her, Vasyl (1981) and Bohdan (1983). His wife left him not long after the birth of their sons, which led Zinkevych to be a single parent, which he suffered from emotionally. Both Zinkevych's sons were active in the Lutsk 1990s hip hop scene. Vasyl became one of the founding members of Tartak and performed at the 1997 Chervona Ruta festival, where their appearance led to controversy over a highly sexualised performance as well as their non-conventional dancing and singing. Vasyl Zinkevych himself was not charmed about his 17-year-old son's performance and forbade him from further participating in the group.

For an artist of his status, Zinkevych leads a generally reclusive life and rarely lets journalists interview him. In comparison to his contemporaries as Sofia Rotaru and Nina Matviyenko, he rarely makes public appearances and treats the stage like a "church".

References

External links
 Vasyl Zinkevych
 Vasyl Zinkevych «Золотий фонд української естради»

1945 births
Living people
People from Khmelnytskyi Oblast
20th-century Ukrainian male singers
Recipients of the title of Hero of Ukraine
Recipients of the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, 4th class
Recipients of the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, 5th class
21st-century Ukrainian male singers
Recipients of the Order of Merit (Ukraine), 1st class
Recipients of the Order of Merit (Ukraine), 2nd class
Recipients of the Order of Merit (Ukraine), 3rd class
Recipients of the Shevchenko National Prize

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
EmpoweredTransWoman.com
Questioning your gender is radical
Just by considering that you might be trans, you are doing something powerful and beautiful!
Theresa Jean Tanenbaum
I got this tattoo years before I was ready to call myself trans. It allowed me space to talk about my gender questioning with other people, before I'd really figured out what I wanted.
I want to talk to the gender questioning folks out there. Questioning your identity can feel like you're slowly unravelling. But it can also feel like you're finally putting the pieces of a puzzle together.
You don't need to know that truth all at once. And you don't owe that truth to anyone but yourself. You don't need to make a decision and feel trapped by it. You don't need to appear consistent to the people around you. Consistency is how other people control you. The world wants us to be stable. Fixed. To live within the box that we were put in at birth.
M or F.
By considering that you might be trans, you've already opened the lid of that box. But it's okay to not know if you want to climb out of it. You can look over the edge. It's okay to not know if you might be more comfortable in a different box, or perhaps nesting multiple boxes together, or living outside of boxes entirely, or building yourself a goddamn box palace! It's okay to not yet know where you will be happiest. There isn't a "right way" or a "wrong way" to explore being trans. The rules say you should know with 100% certainty that you are a girl, or a boy. But if you're questioning, then you've already broken those rules. They don't apply to you.
Keep exploring.
When I started my transition, I wasn't 100% sure I was trans. I wasn't 100% sure I was a woman. But I was 100% certain that I'd been UNCERTAIN about being a boy and a man for my entire life.
More than uncertain.
I was unhappy, disconnected, and struggling with the crushing sadness of being treated like a man, knowing that there couldn't possibly be a way out of it. The transphobia I'd inhaled from the media had taught me that transitioning wasn't "good enough" for me, and I believed it
So my transition looked like baby steps. Testing the waters.
Questioning.
(I write this now, knowing that I can look back at a lifetime of evidence of my transness, but even that impulse is a trap, because you DON'T NEED a lifetime of evidence to be valid in your gender.)
First it was the hair. Classic nonbinary undercut, with a flop of dyed hair on top.
Then it was removing all the other hair.
Then it was skirts.
Next it was exploring new pronouns.
Somewhere in there my name stopped fitting and a new name felt right.
I swore the beard would stay.
(It didn't.)
My label for myself changed too.
First I was a crossdresser (this was like, back in 1997 y'all)
Then I was genderqueer
Then nonbinary
Then a nonbinary trans feminine person
Then a nonbinary trans woman
Then a trans woman.
The point is: at the end of the day, it wasn't my dysphoria that convinced me that transitioning was the right choice for me.
It was my euphoria.
It was that sense of being more myself when I tried on a dress.
The sense of being more myself when I shaved my legs.
The sense of being more myself when I heard someone call me "she" for the first time.
The lightning through me the first time my mother called me "Tess".
The inner peace that estrogen brought me.
Every step closer to femininity produced huge waves of gender euphoria.
When something didn't make me euphoric I would stop doing it. There were plenty of possible gender expressions to explore: no need to keep the bad ones around. I kept exploring until I found the next thing that made me feel like me. Like I could stop pretending.I spent 40 years trying to talk myself out of being a girl, but in the end it wasn't something I could rationalize my way out of. I'm a girl. I didn't decide that, I just decided to stop pretending I wasn't.
I think that your gender isn't something you can reason with. You can't argue with your gender. Sometimes it's hidden deeply under a lot of external expectations and ideas about who and what you should be.
You peel that away by exploring. Questioning.
And so, questioning people. People who don't know if they're trans, or just like things that they're told are for the "other" gender. You are perfect. You are wonderful. Your journey is an act of resistance against bonds that most people never even see. Even if, when all is said and done, you find yourself most comfortable and happy inside the box you were assigned at birth. By opening up your box and looking outside, you've gotten closer to a deep truth about people. You should know that, even by questioning your gender…seriously questioning it as more than a passing fancy…that you are doing something RADICAL. You are choosing to set aside a lifetime of expectations, and instead consider a truth that is yours and yours alone to know.
I'm proud of you. I'm happy to share a world with you. I'm excited for the world we will build.
Empowered Trans Woman
Highlighting the experience of women of trans experience.
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Digital storyteller, feminist witch, reality blender, pervasive theater artist, steampunk, identity scholar, ADHD, poly & queer, trans woman, she/her
Highlighting the experience of women of trans experience. Transition, Womanhood, Feminism, Intersectionality, Transphobia, Marginalization and Assimilation, and more.
Drag as a Straight Woman
Tassia Agatowski
The Poetics of Patience: Gaming, Gender Transition, and Waiting
Cass Ball
To all the Queer People I've Judged Before
Adam J.
The Harmful Normalization of Racial and Gender Stereotypes in Modern Drag
Caitlyn Sullivan
Don't Say This To Your Gay Friends
Brian Fehler in Something Sensational
No, Trans People Are Not Normal
Pax Ahimsa Gethen
SKAM Around the World
Nina_PhD
Stand-Up Comedy's Dark Legacy
Andrew Clark in Lonely Pioneer

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Malicious chatbots are frequently used to fill chat rooms with spam and advertisements, by mimicking human behaviour and conversations or to entice people into revealing personal information, such as bank account numbers. They are commonly found on Yahoo! Messenger, Windows Live Messenger, AOL Instant Messenger and other instant messaging protocols. There has also been a published report of a chatbot used in a fake personal ad on a dating service's website.[44]
Forrester just released a new report on mobile and new technology priorities for marketers, based on our latest global mobile executive survey. We found out that marketers: Fail to deliver on foundational mobile experiences. Consumers' expectations of a brand's mobile experience have never been higher. And yet, 58% of marketers agree that their mobile services […]
Have you checked out Facebook Messenger's official page lately? Well, now you can start building your own bot directly through the platform's landing page. This method though, may be a little bit more complicated than some of the previous ways we've discussed, but there are a lot of resources that Facebook Messenger provides in order to help you accomplish your brand new creation. Through full-fledged guides, case studies, a forum for Facebook developers, and more, you are sure to be a chatbot creating professional in no time.
3. Now, since ours is a conversational AI bot, we need to keep track of the conversations happened thus far, to predict an appropriate response. For this purpose, we need a dictionary object that can be persisted with information about the current intent, current entities, persisted information that user would have provided to bot's previous questions, bot's previous action, results of the API call (if any). This information will constitute our input X, the feature vector. The target y, that the dialogue model is going to be trained upon will be 'next_action' (The next_action can simply be a one-hot encoded vector corresponding to each actions that we define in our training data).
Indeed, this is one of the key benefits of chatbots – providing a 24/7/365 presence that can give prospects and customers access to information no matter when they need it. This, in turn, can result in cost-savings for companies that deploy chatbots, as they cut down on the labour-hours that would be required for staff to manage a direct messaging service every hour of the week.
Users want to ask questions in their own language, and have bots help them. A statement that sounds as straight-forward as "My login isn't working! I haven't been able to log into your on-line billing system" might sound straight forward to us, but to a bot, there's a lot it needs to understand. Watson Conversation Services has learned from Wikipedia, and along with its deep learning techniques, it's able to work out what the user is asking.
The classification score produced identifies the class with the highest term matches (accounting for commonality of words) but this has limitations. A score is not the same as a probability, a score tells us which intent is most like the sentence but not the likelihood of it being a match. Thus it is difficult to apply a threshold for which classification scores to accept or not. Having the highest score from this type of algorithm only provides a relative basis, it may still be an inherently weak classification. Also the algorithm doesn't account for what a sentence is not, it only counts what it is like. You might say this approach doesn't consider what makes a sentence not a given class.
L'usage des chatbots fut d'abord en partie expérimental car il présentait un certain risque pour les marques en fonction des dérapages sémantiques possibles et des manipulations ou détournements également envisageables de la part des internautes. Les progrès dans le domaine ont cependant été rapides et les chatbots s'imposent désormais dans certains contextes comme un nouveau canal de support ou contact client garantissant disponibilité et gains de productivité.
Consider why someone would turn to a bot in the first place. According to an upcoming HubSpot research report, of the 71% of people willing to use messaging apps to get customer assistance, many do it because they want their problem solved, fast. And if you've ever used (or possibly profaned) Siri, you know there's a much lower tolerance for machines to make mistakes.
Through our preview journey in the past two years, we have learned a lot from interacting with thousands of customers undergoing digital transformation. We highlighted some of our customer stories (such as UPS, Equadex, and more) in our general availability announcement. This post covers conversational AI in a nutshell using Azure Bot Service and LUIS, what we've learned so far, and dive into the new capabilities. We will also show how easy it is to get started in building a conversational bot with natural language.
It didn't take long, however, for Turing's headaches to begin. The BabyQ bot drew the ire of Chinese officials by speaking ill of the Communist Party. In the exchange seen in the screenshot above, one user commented, "Long Live the Communist Party!" In response, BabyQ asked the user, "Do you think that such a corrupt and incompetent political regime can live forever?"
The idea was to permit Tay to "learn" about the nuances of human conversation by monitoring and interacting with real people online. Unfortunately, it didn't take long for Tay to figure out that Twitter is a towering garbage-fire of awfulness, which resulted in the Twitter bot claiming that "Hitler did nothing wrong," using a wide range of colorful expletives, and encouraging casual drug use. While some of Tay's tweets were "original," in that Tay composed them itself, many were actually the result of the bot's "repeat back to me" function, meaning users could literally make the poor bot say whatever disgusting remarks they wanted.
The process of building, testing and deploying chatbots can be done on cloud based chatbot development platforms[39] offered by cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS) providers such as Yekaliva, Oracle Cloud Platform, SnatchBot[40] and IBM Watson.[41] [42] [43] These cloud platforms provide Natural Language Processing, Artificial Intelligence and Mobile Backend as a Service for chatbot development.
An Internet bot, also known as a web robot, WWW robot or simply bot, is a software application that runs automated tasks (scripts) over the Internet.[1] Typically, bots perform tasks that are both simple and structurally repetitive, at a much higher rate than would be possible for a human alone. The largest use of bots is in web spidering (web crawler), in which an automated script fetches, analyzes and files information from web servers at many times the speed of a human. More than half of all web traffic is made up of bots.[2]
Disney invited fans of the movie to solve crimes with Lieutenant Judy Hopps, the tenacious, long-eared protagonist of the movie. Children could help Lt. Hopps investigate mysteries like those in the movie by interacting with the bot, which explored avenues of inquiry based on user input. Users can make suggestions for Lt. Hopps' investigations, to which the chatbot would respond.
Back to our earlier example, if a bot doesn't know the word trousers and a user corrects the input to pants, the bot will remember the connection between those two words in the future. The more words and connections that a bot is exposed to, the smarter it gets. This process is similar to that of human learning. Our capacity for memory and synthesis is part of what makes us unique, and we're teaching our best tricks to bots.
I argued that it is super hard to scale a one-trick TODA into a general assistant that helps the user getting things done across multiple tasks. An intelligence assistant is arguably expected to hold an informal chit-chat with the user. It is this area where we are staring into perhaps the biggest challenge of AI. Observe how Samantha introduces herself to Joaquin Phoenix's Ted in the clip below:
Modern chatbots are frequently used in situations in which simple interactions with only a limited range of responses are needed. This can include customer service and marketing applications, where the chatbots can provide answers to questions on topics such as products, services or company policies. If a customer's questions exceed the abilities of the chatbot, that customer is usually escalated to a human operator.
There are various search engines for bots, such as Chatbottle, Botlist and Thereisabotforthat, for example, helping developers to inform users about the launch of new talkbots. These sites also provide a ranking of bots by various parameters: the number of votes, user statistics, platforms, categories (travel, productivity, social interaction, e-commerce, entertainment, news, etc.). They feature more than three and a half thousand bots for Facebook Messenger, Slack, Skype and Kik.
Training a chatbot happens at much faster and larger scale than you teach a human. Humans Customer Service Representatives are given manuals and have them read it and understand. While the Customer Support Chatbot is fed with thousands of conversation logs and from those logs, the chatbot is able to understand what type of question requires what type of answers.
We need to know the specific intents in the request (we will call them as entities), for eg — the answers to the questions like when?, where?, how many? etc., that correspond to extracting the information from the user request about datetime, location, number respectively. Here datetime, location, number are the entities. Quoting the above weather example, the entities can be 'datetime' (user provided information) and location(note — location need not be an explicit input provided by the user and will be determined from the user location as default, if nothing is specified).
A toolkit can be integral to getting started in building chatbots, so insert, BotKit. It gives a helping hand to developers making bots for Facebook Messenger, Slack, Twilio, and more. This BotKit can be used to create clever, conversational applications which map out the way that real humans speak. This essential detail differentiates from some of its other chatbot toolkit counterparts.
Once you've determined these factors, you can develop the front-end web app or microservice. You might decide to integrate a chatbot into a customer support website where a customer clicks on an icon that immediately triggers a chatbot conversation. You could also integrate a chatbot into another communication channel, whether it's Slack or Facebook Messenger. Building a "Slackbot," for example, gives your users another way to get help or find information within a familiar interface.
A chatbot is an artificial intelligence (AI) program that simulates interactive human conversation by using key pre-calculated user phrases and auditory or text-based signals. Chatbots are frequently used for basic customer service and marketing systems that frequent social networking hubs and instant messaging (IM) clients. They are also often included in operating systems as intelligent virtual assistants.
How can our business leverage technology to better and more often engage younger audiences with our products and services? H&M is one of several retailers experimenting with and leveraging chatbots as a mobile marketing opportunity – according to a report by Accenture, 32 percent of the world (a large portion of the population 29 years old and younger) uses social media daily and 80 percent of that time is via mobile.
This means our questions must fit with the programming they have been given. Using our weather bot as an example once more, the question 'Will it rain tomorrow' could be answered easily. However if the programming is not there, the question 'Will I need a brolly tomorrow' may cause the chatbot to respond with a 'I am sorry, I didn't understand the question' type response.
On the other hand, early adoption can be somewhat of a curse. In 2011, many companies and individuals, myself included, invested a lot of time and money into Google+, dubbed to be bigger than Facebook at the time. They acquired over 10 million new users within the first two weeks of launch and things were looking positive. Many companies doubled-down on growing a community within the platform, hopeful of using it as a new and growing acquisition channel, but things didn't exactly pan out that way.
Bots are also used to buy up good seats for concerts, particularly by ticket brokers who resell the tickets.[12] Bots are employed against entertainment event-ticketing sites. The bots are used by ticket brokers to unfairly obtain the best seats for themselves while depriving the general public of also having a chance to obtain the good seats. The bot runs through the purchase process and obtains better seats by pulling as many seats back as it can.
Chatbots have been used in instant messaging (IM) applications and online interactive games for many years but have recently segued into business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) sales and services. Chatbots can be added to a buddy list or provide a single game player with an entity to interact with while awaiting other "live" players. If the bot is sophisticated enough to pass the Turing test, the person may not even know they are interacting with a computer program.
Ein Chatterbot, Chatbot oder kurz Bot ist ein textbasiertes Dialogsystem, welches das Chatten mit einem technischen System erlaubt. Er hat je einen Bereich zur Textein- und -ausgabe, über die sich in natürlicher Sprache mit dem dahinterstehenden System kommunizieren lässt. Chatbots können, müssen aber nicht in Verbindung mit einem Avatar benutzt werden. Technisch sind Bots näher mit einer Volltextsuchmaschine verwandt als mit künstlicher oder gar natürlicher Intelligenz. Mit der steigenden Computerleistung können Chatbot-Systeme allerdings immer schneller auf immer umfangreichere Datenbestände zugreifen und daher auch intelligente Dialoge für den Nutzer bieten. Solche Systeme werden auch als virtuelle persönliche Assistenten bezeichnet.
What began as a televised ad campaign eventually became a fully interactive chatbot developed for PG Tips' parent company, Unilever (which also happens to own an alarming number of the most commonly known household brands) by London-based agency Ubisend, which specializes in developing bespoke chatbot applications for brands. The aim of the bot was to not only raise brand awareness for PG Tips tea, but also to raise funds for Red Nose Day through the 1 Million Laughs campaign.
Marketing teams are increasingly interested in leveraging branded chatbots, but most struggle to deliver business value. My recently published report, Case Study: Take A Focused And Disciplined Approach To Drive Chatbot Success, shows how OCBC Bank in Singapore is bucking the trend: The bank recently created Emma, a chatbot focused on home loan leads, which […]
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Artificial neural networks, invented in the 1940's, are a way of calculating an output from an input (a classification) using weighted connections ("synapses") that are calculated from repeated iterations through training data. Each pass through the training data alters the weights such that the neural network produces the output with greater "accuracy" (lower error rate).
"It's hard to balance that urge to just dogpile the latest thing when you're feeling like there's a land grab or gold rush about to happen all around you and that you might get left behind. But in the end quality wins out. Everyone will be better off if there's laser focus on building great bot products that are meaningfully differentiated." — Ryan Block, Cofounder of Begin.com
Oh and by the way: We've been hard at work on some interesting projects at Coveo, one of those focusing squarely on the world of chatbots. We've leveraged our insight engine, and enabled it to work within the confines of your preferred chat tool: the power of Coveo, in chatbot form. The best part about our work in the field of chatbots? The code is out there in the wild waiting for you to utilize it, providing that you are already a customer or partner of Coveo. All you need to do is jump over to the Coveo Labs github page, download it, and get your hands dirty!
Can we provide a better way of doing business that transforms an arduous "elephant-in-the-room" process or task into one that allows all involved parties to stay active and engaged? As stated by Grayevsky, "I saw a huge opportunity to design a technology platform for both job seekers and employers that could fill the gaping 'black hole' in recruitment and deliver better results to both sides."
These days, checking the headlines over morning coffee is as much about figuring out if we should be hunkering down in the basement preparing for imminent nuclear annihilation as it is about keeping up with the day's headlines. Unfortunately, even the most diligent newshounds may find it difficult to distinguish the signal from the noise, which is why NBC launched its NBC Politics Bot on Facebook Messenger shortly before the U.S. presidential election in 2016.
Chatbots are unique because they not only engage with your customers, they also retain them. This means that unlike other forms of marketing, chatbots keep your customers entertained for longer. For example, let's say you catch your audience's attention with a video. While this video may be extremely engaging, once it ends, it doesn't have much more to offer.
Today, consumers are more aware of technology than ever. While some marketers may be worried about overusing automation and chat tools because their tech-savvy audience might notice. Others are embracing the bots and using them to improve the user journey by providing a more personalized experience. Ironically, sometimes bots are the key to adding a human touch to your marketing communications.
With the help of equation, word matches are found for given some sample sentences for each class. Classification score identifies the class with the highest term matches but it also has some limitations. The score signifies which intent is most likely to the sentence but does not guarantee it is the perfect match. Highest score only provides the relativity base.
However, if you're trying to develop a sophisticated bot that can understand more than a couple of basic commands, you're heading down a potentially complicated path. More elaborately coded bots respond to various forms of user questions and responses. The bots have typically been "trained" on databases of thousands of words, queries, or sentences so that they can learn to detect lexical similarity. A good e-commerce bot "knows" that trousers are a kind of pants (if you are in the US), though this is beyond the comprehension of a simple, untrained bot.
Think about the possibilities: all developers regardless of expertise in data science able to build conversational AI that can enrich and expand the reach of applications to audiences across a myriad of conversational channels. The app will be able to understand natural language, reason about content and take intelligent actions. Bringing intelligent agents to developers and organizations that do not have expertise in data science is disruptive to the way humans interact with computers in their daily life and the way enterprises run their businesses with their customers and employees.
What if you're creating a bot for a major online clothing retailer? For starters, the bot will require a greeting ("How can I help you?") as well as a process for saying its goodbyes. In between, the bot needs to respond to inputs, which could range from shopping inquiries to questions about shipping rates or return policies, and the bot must possess a script for fielding questions it doesn't understand.
Several studies accomplished by analytics agencies such as Juniper or Gartner [34] report significant reduction of cost of customer services, leading to billions of dollars of economy in the next 10 years. Gartner predicts an integration by 2020 of chatbots in at least 85% of all client's applications to customer service. Juniper's study announces an impressive amount of $8 billion retained annually by 2022 due to the use of chatbots.


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Anopheles arboricola este o specie de țânțari din genul Anopheles, descrisă de Thomas J. Zavortink în anul 1970.

Este endemică în Panama. Conform Catalogue of Life specia Anopheles arboricola nu are subspecii cunoscute.

Referințe

Legături externe

Anopheles


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WI Could Breathe Easier With Biofuels
MADISON, Wis. - The huge oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a symptom of the way we currently distribute and use energy in Wisconsin, but it's not the only symptom. The burning of fossil fuel also has a major impact on the air we breathe, according to the American Lung Association in Wisconsin. The ...Read More
DHHS: Move 3 Youth Centers to Sununu Center and Save Taxpayers $4 Million
CONCORD, N.H. - As legislators grapple with closing a $200 million budget gap, a proposal to save the state and taxpayers about $4 million per year is hanging in the balance. Diana Lacey, first vice president of the State Employees Union of New Hampshire (SEIU Local 1984), would like the state to ap ...Read More
Michigan vs. China: The Race for Clean Energy Manufacturing Jobs
LANSING, Mich. - Auto workers out of a job and empty manufacturing plants are enticing clean energy industries to take a serious look at setting up shop in the state. That includes 14 battery companies and $8 billion worth of investment so far this year. According to the State Department of Energy, ...Read More
NE Oregon Turns Party-Line Politics on its Ear
PENDLETON, Ore. - In Tuesday's primary elections, two eastern Oregon incumbents defied the wishes of their own party...by winning. Reps. Bob Jenson, Pendleton, and Greg Smith, Heppner - both moderate Republicans - had been targeted for defeat by the GOP because they voted for a measure that raised t ...Read More
Wide Gap in "Green Grades" for NY State Senators
ALBANY, N.Y. - Environmental advocates have issued mid-term "green" grades for New York State senators, and the gap between Democrats and Republicans is as high as ever. Concerns over environmental budget cutting in New York has prompted environmental advocates to take the unusual step. Deep cuts ar ...Read More
ID Cards for Illegal Immigrants: A Good Thing?
President Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Wednesday criticized Arizona's law that makes failure to carry immigration documents a crime. But in contrast to Arizona, a growing number of cities around the country are taking a different approach: They are issuing identification cards (ID) ...Read More
AMP to Shutdown Last OH Coal Plant, Spend Millions on Efficiency
COLUMBUS, Ohio - A controversial source of air pollution in Ohio will be shutting down, and its operator will be spending millions on energy efficiency. Those are a few of the important terms of a settlement reached this week between the federal government and American Municipal Power (AMP), which w ...Read More
Nevada one of the States with a Bundle of Green Riding on House Vote
LAS VEGAS, Nev. - Nevada is one of 24 states that will be paying very close attention to an expected vote today in Congress on the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Bill. Included in that proposal is an extension of funding for both Medicaid and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families. Jon Sa ...Read More


We need a professional and cost efficient...and cost efficient social media marketer to design and manage advertising for our new App on social medias including, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and Twitter. The App is due to be released last week in May and we'd like to generate as much exposure as possible mostly in the UK but also around the world.
I am looking for a content marketing strategy person for my project. When you bid on this project I want you to...want you to answer the following questions: What are your normal avenues you take when a client provides you with content they want marketed? What is your approach to the world besides the common avenues of social media, email, and so on.
I am about to start a webpage to offer doula services called: Doula Luna I am wanting a creative l...wanting a creative logo for it. Some concepts around it: doula being a mother helper, and luna, in spanish as the traditional symbol asociated with the feminine side of the world, the unknown, the life giver, the dark, intuition, life cycles and so on.
Looking for someone to create a simple logo representing a Ripple effect, ideally R in the middle with a ripple surrounding but looking for anything!! The com...effect, ideally R in the middle with a ripple surrounding but looking for anything!! The company is about helping others, hoping to create a ripple effect in the community and world hopefully.
[login to view URL] As a pre-qualifier, please see the below questions: 1). Can you explain in layman's terms what this technology does and how it does it? 2). Can you talk about the real world application of this technology? 3). What sectors is this technology most useful? 4). Who are the major competitors within this space?