Numerous times I've written how I consider video poker more than a game of luck. Twenty plus years ago, my father wrote about a court case in which a judge determined video poker is a game of luck, despite Dad's testimony to the contrary. This topic was the center of a conversation I had with some very knowledgeable people in the industry.
There seemed to be two trains of thought. First, a game of skill requires some form of physical skill and mental acuity is not considered skill. I didn't have much response to this. By this definition all traditional games in the casino don't qualify. To be clear, I do not agree with this definition, even less so that using ones brain is not a "skill." Suffice it to say, I believe we should put MORE emphasis on brain power than we currently do as a society.
The second train of thought goes to the degree skill plays a part vs. luck. If the game must simply have any amount of skill, then any game with a strategy qualifies. This leaves out only a handful of games – slots, Big Wheel, keno, etc. I'm not really sure where this leaves roulette and craps. These games don't have strategy per se.
With the exception perhaps of the poker room, nothing in the casino approaches the point of being more skill than luck. But, I don't think a game must be 51% skill to be a game of skill. However, this train of thought is more accurate than the need for some physical component. Casino games were not meant to be physical.
So, how much strategy is required to make a game into one considered to be one of skill? I think there are two components to this. The first, the amount of strategy; the second, the impact of not following this strategy. They are usually tied together, but not always.
Let's start with the game that has one of the simplest strategies in the casino, Three Card Poker. There is one rule for the strategy: Play Q-6-4 or higher. What happens if you forgo any strategy and never fold? This will nearly double the house advantage from 2% to nearly 4%. This is a significant increase, but how devastating is it? In percentage terms it increases the house advantage by roughly 100%.
So, we have a game in which the strategy is very simple to follow and if you choose to ignore it the house advantage doubles. Yet, I have a tough time calling Three Card Poker a game of skill. One aspect of my determination is also how obvious is the strategy. To someone who never plays casino games, probably not all that obvious. To someone more familiar with games, but who has never played Three Card Poker, the notion of following the dealer's lead (i.e. dealer doesn't qualify with less than Queen High, so maybe I should fold) is not unusual. I simply don't think it takes much skill to play.
In video poker or blackjack, we find far more complex strategies. It is much harder to state the absolute impact of not following the strategy because no two people not following it will do the same thing. One might not know when to double on soft hands in blackjack, another might hate splitting altogether. Then there's the strategy to "follow the dealer's lead," which completely backfires in blackjack. Hitting until you bust or get to 17 is very bad strategy.
The house advantage in blackjack (paying 3-to-2) is a mere 0.6%. Ignoring doubling, refusing to split, not knowing when to hit/stick, can easily change the house advantage to 4-5% or more. The net house advantage might be similar to our prior example of Three Card Poker, but as a percent increase, it is more in the 1,000% range. Between the combination of complex strategy and the impact it has on the house advantage, I put this game into the game of skill. As final confirmation, I don't believe most people would find the strategy the least bit intuitive.
All of this is not to imply luck doesn't play a significant part, at least in the short run. In the long run, a player will most definitely feel the impact of playing 95% vs. 99.4% or even 96% vs. 98%. The luck aspect will matter less and the skill portion will become dominant as the long-term odds develop. But, most don't keep track of their lifetime gambling ledger.
In some cases, even the long-term is affected a bit by luck. If, over several years, you play a variety of video poker games at a variety of denominations and sometimes play max-coin and sometimes not, then luck might play a bigger part of your lifetime ledger. The math has no idea what game you are playing. Hit a Royal when you have 1-4 coins in instead of 5 and you will pay a price, so to speak.
A Royal will show up once every 41,000 hands or so. Unless you are a very heavy player, you might get through a few cycles every several years. Hitting the "right" number of Royals is important, but hitting them when you're playing max-coin quarters instead of max-coin nickels is just pure luck. As a case in point, this morning I sat down at a 100-play machine, where you get a single deal and play the resulting draw 100 times.
When you play for one penny, you are really wagering $1 per hand. I was nearly down $20 when I was dealt four 4's (without the kicker). My draw netted me 25 kickers and 75 non-kickers for a win of about $100. Hard to win much more playing video poker wagering $1. I could've just as easily been playing max-coin nickels with a single hand and won much less.
The skill component of this only comes in, in the fact that because I was playing the right strategy, I still had a couple of dollars left on the meter. If I had played incorrect strategy, I might have run out of money before I ever got to this hand. This is a part of the impact of skill that is very difficult to measure. So, is video poker a game of skill? I think so, but others might have a different opinion.


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Alan Barnes (saxes)
Bruce Adams (trumpet)
Robin Aspland (piano)
Simon Thorpe (bass)
Matt Home (drums)
"Alan Barnes is the most reliably entertaining, multi-skilled reed virtuoso on the UK scene" - John Fordham, Guardian. Alan has enjoyed a prolific career, playing and recording for many bands. He has dominated the British Jazz Awards over the years, having won the alto sax section in 1993, 95, 97 & 99, the clarinet award for 94, 96 & 98 and being voted the top baritone player in 98, 2000 & 2002. In 2001 and 2006 Alan received the prestigious BBC Jazz Instrumentalist of the Year award and in November 2003 was made a fellow of the Leeds College of Music. 2003 also saw the inception of Alan's own record label Woodville Records. Alan is joined by the co-leader of his award-winning quintet - trumpeter par excellence Bruce Adams, himself a previous winner of the top trumpet prize at the British Jazz Awards.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Serbia: Gas Tank Is Now Empty – Cats Are Getting Cold – Minus 10 – Any Donation Size Will Help Thank You.
Posted on January 19, 2016 by Serbian Animals Voice (SAV)
19/1/16:
Please share and help if you can!
Well, that's it.
Our gas tank is bone dry empty and the electric heaters have been turned on in all of the cats' rooms and inside the house as well.
The current cold snap will continue for at least a week, possibly more, with outside temperatures dropping as low as 10 degrees below zero. The electric heaters simply can't warm up the indoor space sufficiently while we're gripped by this big freeze.
The cats are already huddling together attempting to stay warm in these frosty, icy nights; nonetheless, the elderly kitties which lack the body fat are having a hard time coping with the cold.
This is our last ditch, a desperate appeal for help to fill the gas tank while the oldest of the Felix cats are still holding on!
Otherwise this winter will be a very sad and heartbreaking one, as we can do absolutely nothing else but powerlessly look at our golden oldies, wondering which one of them will give up first 😦 We've had several appeals on and put in requests for help, but the donations are still trickling in.
Please, this is an emergency!
Every single donation counts, no matter what the size! https://www.youcaring.com/cat-shelter-felix-496539
Please Help – Thank You.
Filed under: Animals Requiring Adoption or Homes - Worldwide, GENERAL NEWS - International / National / Regional, SERBIA (Central Serbia: Capital - Belgrade) and (Serbia, SHELTER - Information, The "Serbian Animals Voice (SAV) ALLIANCE |	Leave a comment »
Serbia: Can You Provide Help To Vaccinate 28 Rescued Dogs ?
We are 4 women from Novi Sad (Serbia) and we try to help abandoned dogs.
In this moment we take care about 28 dogs and several cats and rabbits.
We urgently have to do regular vaccination of all our dogs because their vaccines stand out, and they are close proximity to the dogs who are suffering from distemper.
Some dogs already vaccinated, and we owe to our vet, and the other will be able to vaccinate when we pay.
Please help us to protect them.
To donate, please go to:
https://www.youcaring.com/28-free-fly-dogs-from-serbia-502454/update/421720
More about our animals and me you can find here:
https://www.facebook.com/freefly3/
Thank you for your support – from all the dogs !
Filed under: Animals Requiring Adoption or Homes - Worldwide, GENERAL NEWS - International / National / Regional, SERBIA (Central Serbia: Capital - Belgrade) and (Serbia, SHELTER - Information |	Leave a comment »
Australia: The Japanese Whalers Are In The Southern Ocean RIGHT NOW and Have Plans To Murder 333 Whales – Take Action and Get The Australian Government To Act Immediately.
Additional –
See the London Taiji dolphin murder demo which took place last Saturday (16/1/16) by clicking on the following:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gjErrTO8jk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiy2IrzlRPY
The Japanese whaling fleet is in the Southern Ocean right now and plans to kill 333 minke whales this season.
If left unchallenged, this plan could continue for the next 12 years.
Sign below and urge the Australian Government to take immediate action to stop lethal whaling in the Southern Ocean.
Sign here.
Thanks for sending a message to Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and speaking up for whales. More than 20,000 people have now urged the Australian Government to take action to end Japan's whaling program for good.
The whaling fleet is in the Southern Ocean right now and we need more voices quick. The more noise we make, the more likely we are to get a response from the Australian Government.
Can you get your friends and family to take a stand for whales too?
1. Forward the text below the dotted line to your friends by email
https://act.greenpeace.org/ea-action/action?ea.client.id=1845&ea.campaign.id=46604&ea.tracking.id=EM3&ea.url.id=526479&forwarded=true
2. Share this link on Facebook: http://on.fb.me/1Qka6qI
3. Tweet this: http://bit.ly/1RQvvd0
Thanks for being a part of this,
Nathaniel Pelle
Oceans Campaigner
Greenpeace Australia Pacific
SAV Comment – If anyone wishes to make independent gripes to the dolphin and whale murderers of Japan, then please use the following links to find 'your own national' contacts:
http://www.mofa.go.jp/about/emb_cons/mofaserv.html
http://www.mofa.go.jp/about/emb_cons/over/
SAV Comment – We have put together a sample letter which you can copy and send to the Japanese authorities across the world.
Click on the following links to find many Japanese 'national' contacts:
SAMPLE LETTER – copy and send, or copy and personalise as you wish.
Use the above links to select where you send copies of your letter.
Each year in Taiji, Japan; dolphins are chased into a small cove and butchered in the most horrific and cruel way imaginable. These hunts are subsidized by the dolphin captivity industry, which pays top money for a few "show quality" dolphins that are ripped from their families and sold on to aquatic centres in order to perform stupid tricks for a brain dead audience, whilst the rest of the captured pod is killed for meat. This dolphin meat has been proven to be laden with mercury and PCBs, all of which are very harmful to Japanese citizens who eat the meat.
Due to a major attempt to cover up the hunt by the Japanese government (which drastically fails in the rest of the world); most Japanese citizens don't even know that the hunts exist in their land. The Japanese government very much supports the dolphin killers, whilst denying any public health issues. Both issues are now being widely publicised to the world through international campaign networks, the internet and film such as 'The Cove'.
The Japanese government are still attempting to resist worldwide actions taken against them for both dolphin and for whale slaughter; which takes place each year under the false guise of 'Scientific research'. The Japanese government may believe there are no public health issues for its own citizens regarding the dolphin slaughter, and may kid itself that it needs to undertake 'research' in whales as it falsely claimed for many years; but thanks to global communication processes nowdays, the rest of the world instantly knows the real truth; this is why Japan (as a nation) is hated internationally by the environmental movement and also why so many protests are taking place outside its embassies located around the world.
There is a simple way to resolve this – that is for Japan to stop the killing of both dolphins and whales now. Animal welfare campaigners who speak out against the dolphin murders are now being directly targeted – the latest being Mr Ric O'Barry who has been held at Tokyo's Narita airport since Monday 18th January.
Mr O'Barry is a longtime leader in opposition to the annual Taiji (town) dolphin hunt, which has gained a negative worldwide reputation since the release and viewing of the film 'The Cove'. 'The Cove' has shown the teal cruelty of Japan to the rest of the world; which has led to a worldwide hatred for the actions of Japan on whales and dolphins ever since.
There is no reason whatsoever why Mr O'Barry should be held by Japan. He has always been very careful not to violate any laws, whilst at the same time working within the legal system of Japan. If Japan thinks their actions will result in bad publicity for the organisation named 'Sea Shepherd', which is most probably why Mr O'Barry is now being held; then Japan is very wrong.
The world largely supports the actions of Sea Shepherd whilst undertaking a national hatred of the Japanese people and what they do in murdering the natural wonders of our oceans.
It is time for Japan to change, and change now – immediately. For only when Japan does take actions to ban both the dolphin murders and whale murders which it undertakes at present; only then will it be accepted back into the international community as a nation which has respect of others for attempts to preserve the wonderful creatures of our oceans. All the time the Japanese led killings continue, Japan will continue to be singled out and targeted for what it is – simply murderers of the wonderful wildlife of the world's oceans; nothing more, nothing less.
Japan needs to take action and to take it immediately – ban the killing of dolphins and whales now, today.
YOUR Name and nationality.
Filed under: CAMPAIGNS - Global Animal Welfare Issues, GENERAL NEWS - International / National / Regional, GLOBAL PETITIONS - Anything Animal, Anywhere ! |	Leave a comment »


Notes: Make an [AVERAGE] Ranged (Light) check to secure grappling hook to object in medium range. May then reel in the cord as an action. Can pull another character with him, if an [AVERAGE] Athletics check is made.


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This article is more than 2 months old
UK country house prices hit four-year high in 'race for space'
Shift to working from home drives demand among wealthy buyers for properties in rural areas
Tue 3 Nov 2020 13.04 EST Last modified on Tue 3 Nov 2020 13.10 EST
Esher in Surrey is among the locations proving most popular with wealthy buyers looking for country homes. Photograph: jonathan tennant/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo
Record demand for country houses in the UK has driven prices to a four-year high, with wealthy buyers flocking to Worcester in the West Midlands and Cobham in Surrey in a "race for space".
Prices for country houses, including cottages, farm houses and manor houses, rose 2% in the three months to September from the previous quarter, according to the estate agent Knight Frank, as the number of offers accepted outside London hit an all-time record.
The great rebalancing: working from home fuels rise of the 'secondary city'
Compared with the third quarter of last year, prices rose by 2.3%, the highest annual growth rate since March 2016, when the impending 3% surcharge on second home purchases led to buyers rushing to complete ahead of its introduction.
With working from home becoming a long-term reality for many office workers in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, those who can afford to do so have been moving out of London and other big cities into more rural areas in search of larger houses. The stamp duty cut announced in July has also fuelled demand.
In the West Midlands, prices for country houses rose by 3.7% on the quarter, led by Worcester, while north Surrey recorded a 3.1% price rise, with Cobham, Ascot, Esher and Weybridge among the most popular locations. In the south-east and the east of England prices rose by 2.1%, with the area around Basingstoke proving popular.
Chris Druce, a senior research analyst at Knight Frank, said: "Worcester is an example of somewhere that offers both greenery and space that hasn't traditionally been considered an easy location to commute full-time from. Following lockdown and the adoption of WFH [working from home] widely, this perception and indeed people's requirements have changed."
People had realised they did not need to be right next to a train station as they were commuting less, he said, and that "an extra 20 or 30 minutes on the train will get you a much bigger house".
Prices for country houses valued at less than £1m rose by 1.8% on the previous quarter, while those valued at more than £1m recorded growth of 2.3%, Knight Frank said. Houses valued at £3m to £4m were most in demand, where prices rose 2.9% on the quarter.
Other data from estate agents and mortgage lenders has shown that property prices are on the rise in leafy commuter towns, while rents for flats in some areas of central London and cities such as Edinburgh are sharply down.
However, Knight Frank said there were some signs of a slowdown, amid the resurgence of the Covid-19 virus, fresh lockdowns and the weakening job market. While the number of property viewings remained at 35% above the five-year average, they had been slowing.
Despite this, offers for houses accepted outside London were still at an all-time high in the second week of October, suggesting exchanges would continue to rise in the run-up to Christmas.


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Home » UPDATE: Holcomb pledges action on DCS problems outlined in new report
UPDATE: Holcomb pledges action on DCS problems outlined in new report
June 18, 2018 | Associated Press
Keywords Child welfare / Government / Government & Economic Development / Public Safety
House passes bill to prevent companies from forcing employees to be microchipped
Indiana House backs tougher rules for tobacco retailers
Indiana's infant mortality rate at its lowest in 6 years
Two more counties end library late fees
Legislator seeking end of state's U.S. Senate primaries
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb pledged action on Monday after a review of the state's child welfare system found that dysfunction, a perceived lack of resources and a "culture of fear" contributed to widespread problems at the embattled agency.
Many of the problems detailed in a report were already well documented. Five different reviews of the Department of Child Services conducted in recent years found similar issues, though the documents were shelved with limited action taken, Holcomb said.
"I said at very outset, I wanted the good, the bad and the ugly," Holcomb said of the report by the Child Welfare Policy and Practice Group, which he commissioned in December. "This is on my watch. And what's different is we're going to act on these recommendations."
Long festering problems in Indiana's child welfare system exploded into public view in December, when former DCS director Mary Beth Bonaventura resigned. In a scathing letter, she accused the Republican governor's administration of making management changes and service cuts that "all but ensure children will die."
Child welfare cases have skyrocketed across the U.S. in recent years, as has the number of children placed in foster care because their addict parents can't care for them. But the problem is particularly acute in a handful of states, including Indiana.
While the GOP supermajorities that control the Legislature declined to take up the issue during this year's legislative session, Holcomb brought in an Alabama-based consultant, the Child Welfare Policy and Practice Group, to review the agency.
Among the group's findings released Monday:
— "A culture of fear" has led workers to place concern over "personal liability related to actions" above the "long-term well-being of children."
— Nearly 45 percent of family case managers have caseloads that are greater than the standard set by state law.
— The agency has a high rate of turnover driven by low morale and low pay.
— A bureaucratic agency culture has made some caseworkers reluctant to request sometimes-costly services for children in need.
— The amount of money spent on drug testing is five times greater than the amount spent on drug treatment.
While the report found serious deficiencies in the agency, it also suggested that some of the problems and funding challenges faced by the agency could be driven by workers who have "broad mandates" and are too quick to escalate cases.
For example, it found the state conducts more child welfare assessments than "almost any state," but only 15 percent of those are substantiated.
"Indiana has an exceptionally high rate of court involvement in child welfare cases," the report states. "While this adds oversight to child welfare cases, it also results in higher staff caseloads, more staff time in court and higher DCS costs."
Holcomb said Monday that he will allocate $25 million from the state's budget surplus to pay for raises for DCS workers and will begin to implement some of the report's recommendations. But he stopped short of calling for additional money for DCS, which has already gone more than $200 million over the $608 million allocated to the agency in the state's current two-year budget.
He suggested that some of the recommendations included in the report could reduce costs.
"There's a lot of moving parts. … As you improve in one area, that can draw down costs in another area," Holcomb said.
Some remained skeptical that the state will truly fix the agency instead of merely tinkering with its organizational structure or legal semantics—like how the term "neglect" is defined in state law—to limit the circumstances that will trigger a child welfare case.
"I am a little concerned about fooling with the definition of 'neglect,'" said Democratic Rep. Ed DeLaney, of Indianapolis. "What are we trying to do? Have we been too generous to our children in defining what's 'neglect?' That is not an area that I would think is useful for us to work on."
House Democratic Minority Leader Terry Goodin said that, either way, it's a positive step that the GOP majorities are recognizing there is a problem.
"Today, at long last, the people in charge of state government acknowledge that DCS is broken. It has taken more than a decade to get to this point, but we're there," Goodin said. "The question is now where do we go from here?"


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Auto Industry Shifts Focus to Electric Vehicles
The unveiling of electric and electric-hybrid vehicles will be regional, starting such states as California, New York, Texas and Washington, before becoming available across America. A second wave of electric vehicles is planned for 2012.
In all, nearly 20 new hybrid or electric cars are scheduled to make their debut in 2011, including the Volt from Chevrolet and the Leaf from Nissan. The hybrids are rated to run for up to 40 miles on electricity before the gasoline motor kicks in to power the battery, while the electric-only cars can travel 100 miles on a single charge.
Japan's Nissan Motor Co delivered the first mass-market all-electric car to a technology entrepreneur in California on Saturday as the company tries to get a jump in the nascent green vehicle race.
The first customer, Olivier Chalouhi, has been riding an electric bicycle to work, and he plugged his new car in for the cameras outside San Francisco City Hall. The charge point, one of 400 in the region, had a green official city sign near it that said, "Green Vehicle Showcase: Cars that make a difference."
The Leaf is one of a handful of mass-market fully electric or extended range plug-in vehicles slated to reach consumers in the next year.
The battery-powered Leaf, with an EPA-certified battery-only range of 73 miles (120 km) is due to hit showrooms this month in a limited roll-out — along with Chevy Volts by General Motors Co. Ford Motor Co expects to deliver its first electric Focus compact cars late next year.
Carlos Taveras, the North American head of Nissan, said his company would focus on satisfying the first 20,000 Leaf customers before opening up for more orders next year.
"We are not in a rush," he told reporters, reasserting Nissan's plan to go straight to zero-emission cars, as opposed to the Volt with its gasoline engine that can recharge the battery to give it more range.
Work at Nissan's Tennessee plant was under way to have production capacity for 100,000 battery packs by early 2013, Taveras said, though he told Reuters that was not an indication of expected demand for the car.
The Leaf and Volt are seen as the spearheads of the greening of automobiles. But gasoline and diesel-powered cars with better fuel economy are seen as having more immediate impact on lowering greenhouse gas, mainly because of their greater numbers.
California, the most populous U.S. state, is the biggest market for conventional cars and is expected to be the biggest one for electric vehicles as well. The fact the Leaf is eligible for the California rebate, while the Volt is not, will be a selling point for Nissan.
The Leaf is also set to be delivered to Oregon, Seattle, Tennessee and Arizona, followed by Hawaii and Texas shortly after that.
As a pure electric car, the Leaf tops the Volt in the category on the EPA label that tracks greenhouse gas emissions from the vehicle. Since it carries no combustion engine, the Leaf has no such emissions, although greenhouse gases would be produced by the power plants used to recharge the car.
The Leaf will be priced at about $32,780 before a federal tax credit can bring the sticker price to about $25,280 and, in California, a rebate that can reduce it to about $20,280.
Journalists named it the 2011 European Car of the Year, the first electric vehicle to be chosen for the award. Chevy's Volt — named Green Car of the Year and Motor Trend car of the year — is rated at 84 grams of carbon dioxide per mile, less than one-tenth of the industry's worst-performing vehicle on that score.
The Volt is designed to run for 35 miles (56 km) on a full charge of its 400-pound (181-kg) lithium-ion battery pack supplied by a unit of Korea's LG Chem. After that, a 1.4-liter engine extends the driving range to about 379 miles (610 km).
GM plans to build 10,000 Volts next year, 45,000 in 2012 and has begun discussing ways it could increase the production should there be more demand.
www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/news
aerogeneradoresAntonio CerrilloeólicaeólicoEspaña
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The Led Lenser P3 is the brother of the P2 and the new version of the P3 AFS. With its larger head diameter of 19 mm it has a greater lighting range. This P3 is far more impressive than the former P3AFS as the battery life is longer which is up to 6 hours. Due to its small size and lightweight, it is still up to 16 lumens illumination, consider a great achievement for a keychain light.


Well, we just got through the last competition for the season. This competition was held in Clovis and was the big state competition. If we won this one, we would be invited to attend the nationals.
When we got there, we were surprised to learn that seventy-seven teams would be competing at Clovis. Normally, twenty to thirty teams show up at regular competitions. This would mean that we would have to work a lot harder to win the Champion's Award.
This competition, we did better than the last two competitions. We gave everyone an equal chance to do their favorite missions and worked hard to score points with the judges. We had incredibly success at the field and scored some unexpected points.
You may be wondering, by now, what awards we won. We did not win any awards this particular competition. In fact, only twelve awards were given out, so most teams did not receive an award. Our team did, however get in fifteenth place out off seventy- seven teams.
I really don't look on it as a loss, though. We came out of the season having won three impressive awards; Teamwork, and two Robot Design awards. Those were both areas that we really struggled on in past years, so for us to have overcome that handicap is a great achievement.
We will not be going to the Nationals this year, but, hopefully, some new opportunities will arise. Thank you for following our team through our trials and successes. We had a lot of fun this season and really learned a lot.


Welcome to the Help Center for the Ohio Department of Agriculture website. Please contact us with any questions or to share your feedback regarding our website.
A comprehensive list of frequently asked questions for every division and program at the department. You can search all on the FAQ page.
How can I import wild game into Ohio after a successful hunt in Canada?
Is there a difference between inspection and grading services?
What are the statistics of an ohioan eating meat per year?
What should I know before purchasing meat from a door-to-door salesperson?
Find a phone number for any State of Ohio employee.
Click here to contact someone who can point you in the right direction.
Please share feedback about the new website.
Not sure where to start? Check out the FAQ page for each division and program.


After the first time I decided to host a live event, I was jaded. I semi-vowed I would never do it again … or at least I would do it very differently than that first time. I only had five attendees and went into the hole renting the room. The only upside was that my kids loved the extra food I brought home (buffalo chicken wraps, chips, cookies and juice).
I recently put on my second event called the Billion Dollar Brand Event combined with a speaker showcase called Words Heard 'Round the World. This time I did not go into the hole – hallelujah! I had more followers, promoted more, reached out one by one to potential attendees and planned much further in advance. Now I want to share what I learned if you want to host a live event and give you a glimpse of what happens behind the scenes. It's not meant to be all encompassing but the main points that stand out most for me.
Plan six months or more in advance so that you can have your pick of venue.
Consider hosting your event during the week. Hotel conference room rentals range from $150 to over $2000 depending on the day and place.
If you choose a hotel, have them to give you a special rate room block, but make sure you're not liable for any rooms not booked.
Make sure your location is convenient for out of town travelers. Uber and Lyft is not available everywhere in Michigan where I live. The first event I did, it cost my attendees $95 to get to and from the airport and Uber wasn't available going back, only a contracted driver.
Read all details to the contract before you sign so you won't have any surprises.
Sometimes you can get your room comped if you buy enough food. I was able to do that with my first event, but not my second. Only the VIP participants received lunch.
Most venues won't let you bring in your own food, but you can give your attendees swag bags. I included granola bars, fruit snacks, cookies, etc and my attendees said they really appreciated their goodies.
Approach sponsors early (I only decided to pursue sponsors 6 weeks prior to my event and I was too late). You can get sponsors who give product and sponsors who pay for promotion.
Book your videographer early and give them a shot list. I found mine on Thumbtack.
Book your photographer early and give them a shot list too. I flew in effie@effiesstudio.com who has been a photographer for NY Fashion Week.
Negotiate with the hotel for discounts and extras. I got my corded mic and speaker for free just because I asked.
Don't forget your gratuity and taxes. I paid an extra 22% plus 6% sales tax.
Personalized swag bag items. I got my branded selfie sticks from National Pen, my pens from Myron, my banner from Build a Sign.
Do you think you want to host a live event? What was most helpful to you about this post? I'd love to hear about what you learned and what event you're planning in the comments.
Grab her free template 5 Secret Strategies to Write Your Book Quickly.


With everything available today with the simple click, customers are online looking for products, services, legal advice and what not. So, for advocates, lawyer SEO is of vital import.
Only when clients see that your law firm online is thriving will they be inclined to click on your website and turn into potential customers. However, if you're uncertain as to where to start and what to do to garner healthy leads, this blog can help.
Coining up some of the most effective law marketing ideas, given below are few tips to do law marketing right.
According to the Australasian Legal Practice Management Association (ALPMA), if your law firm has more than one specialty, the trick is to indulge in specified targeting. So, assuming your law firm offers a plethora of options like a real-estate lawyer, family lawyer criminal lawyer etc. and you're based in Canada.
Then you should implement an SEO strategy that compliments the Google algorithm Pigeon. More so, try and use specified keywords with local locations to improve lawyer SEO.
For example, criminal lawyer Canada; using this keyword will help feature an exact niche of your law firm in a more target oriented search. Moreover, make sure that your law marketing web page has a specific area of content featuring these keywords to help it rank on the SERP.
Ensure a specified useful landing page for each segment.
Use schema markup to assist search engines in understanding and comprehending web content.
Optimize image, heading tags and incorporate proper relative keywords into each page.
Get suitable citations from reliable websites while optimizing local searches to boost your website among the local clientele.
Online reviews are essential when it comes to your website. So, if you've managed to get good lawyer SEO unless you have positive reviews about your company within 3 months of activation, your ranking goes down in Google. So, encourage clients to give your company some suited reviews online to ensure that you rank properly in Google's SERP.
The surest way to build leads and rank high on Google's SERP is content. Customers online don't always look for services but sometimes they look for advice. So, if your company can offer proper legal advice, cases, scenarios, information etc. that are useful to clients while optimizing keywords within these, your content will rank.
Moreover, even if the potential audience doesn't turn into a customer immediately if you impress him/her with content then in future this audience can turn into a customer. So, periodically post blogs, news, press releases and articles to keep providing your audience with relative content. Use images, videos, statistics, infographics etc. to improve the quality of content.
Well, there you go, using these 4 tips effectively along with proper lawyer SEO; you can undoubtedly turn your web audience into new customers.


Come hear about Emerging Technology projects and working groups that you can be a part of in 2019. The ACT-IAC Emerging Technology COI invites you to attend their member meeting review current and upcoming COI project developments. We welcome any members interested in getting involved in these projects.
Non-members, contact April Davis for information about membership (adavis@actiac.org or 703-208-4800 ext. 202).


text:
John W. Lowe
16bis rue Louis Philippe
Neuilly sur Seine 92200
john.lowe@lowearbitration.com
www.lowearbitration.com
1954, Colorado Springs, USA
Having recently begun acting as an international arbitrator, I find that there are three overriding principles that guide my work. The first is that the arbitration should be conducted efficiently. Ground rules and schedules will be established early and, most importantly, will be adhered to. Parties will be expected to present their evidence and case and will be given all reasonable means to do so. However, delaying tactics will not work. Arbitration has been subjected to criticism for becoming more like litigation, too long and too expensive. The best way to deal with this is handling the case in an expeditious manner. This also holds for my work as an arbitrator; I will issue awards in a timely manner—no longer than three months and usually between one and two months. My second principle is that it is the arbitrator who should handle the arbitration proceeding, issue the relevant orders and write the award and not assistants or tribunal secretaries. The third principal may come as a surprise given my common law legal training and bar membership. And this is that discovery and orders for document production should be used judiciously and in response to particular requirements of the case.
George Washington University Law School, J.D., 1979
University of Delaware, B.A., 1976
District of Columbia (USA), 1980
Ohio (USA) 1992
Arbitrator and Mediator, Lowe Arbitration
Visiting Professor: Universita' di Rome, La Sapienza
Group Compliance Director, Geodis, 2015; General Counsel and Communications Director, Qioptiq, 2006-2013; Group Assistant General Counsel, Alcatel, 2003-2005, General Counsel, Alcatel Submarine Networks, 2000-2003, Deputy General Counsel, Alcatel Bell, 1997-1999; International Counsel, Alcatel Italia, 1994-1997; Attorney, Cooper, Walinski (Ohio, USA), 1992-1994; Attorney, Lowe & Associates (Milan, Italy), 1987-1992; US Diplomatic Service, Economist (postings in Mexico, Washington and Italy) 1980-1987.
Member, ICC Arbitration and ADR Commission; Member, Chartered Institute of Arbitrators (CIArb); Fellow, Asian Institute of Alternative Dispute Resolution; Member, London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA); Member, International Arbitration Institute (IAI); Member, Associazione Italiano del Arbitrato; Member, Association Française d'Arbitrage, Former Board Member and President, Asociation of Corporate Counsel Europe, Former Member, Cercle Montesquieu.
American Arbitration Association (AAA); International Center for Dispute Resolution (ICDR); Asian International Arbitration Association (AIAC); Chambre Arbitrale Internationale de Paris; International Institute for Conflict Prevention and Resolution (CPR); Saudi Center for Commercial Arbitration (SCCA); Singapore International Arbitration Centre (SIAC); Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA); World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO).
Seven international arbitrations as counsel. These dealt with international contracts, joint ventures and ship conversion contracts. Were handled under ICC rules, ad hoc arbitration and Danish arbitration rules. Chairman of ICDR panel handling maritime and insurance issues. Sole arbitrator for international contract ad hoc arbitration (Paris Arbitration Rules) and for AAA arbitrations involving partnership and shareholder agreements and construction contracts. Panel member AAA shareholder dispute arbitration. Panel member FINRA arbitration for consolidated security claims.
"Arbitration in the US: A Love/Hate Affair", La Lettre de la Chambre Arbitrale Internationale de Paris, Number 15, December 2017, pp. 11-13; "Incorporation Mediation into a Company's Dispute Resolution Program", Young Arbitration Review, April 2016, pp. 70-74. "Litigation Management in the Corporate Legal Department", pages 386-392 in Der Unternehmensjurist (Shulthess Verlag) 2016.


The Jaybird App gives you the ability to customize the sound profile of your earbuds in real time. You can access customized presets created by the Jaybird team as well as many others from Jaybird Athletes. You also have the ability to create your own sound profile and save it by using the custom equalizer. If you think you have created the perfect sound profile, share it with the Jaybird App Community and watch as people from around the world save and use your preset.
Additionally, you can use the Jaybird App to find running playlists, change the language for voice prompts, set up the 'Find Your Buds' utility to track the location of your earbuds, and 'Find Your Fit'. The Jaybird App can also enable you to automatically update your product, when updates become available.


Are you in need of some rugged military style BDU shorts? Take a look at these Army style High Desert BDU Combat Shorts. These shorts are made of a poly/cotton blend. These are great BDU shorts especially if you're hiking, fishing or camping. They have 6 pockets to carry all of your personal items and tools needed for the day. These men's BDU shorts also include a button fly and an adjustable waistband. What a great pair of men's combat shorts that feels great and last forever.
Remarks: Military Style, Street wear, Ideal for Work, Hiking or Fishing Trips.


To "Cellarbrate": Very welcoming family with some beautiful cavas, picturesque setting and interesting underground cellars. Dom Hidden Gem awarded.
Tours include between 3-5 wine tastings, depending on the tour chosen, or you can do a tasting flight of 4 cavas.
There is space allocated on the property whereby you can actually come and stay in the vineyards for 2 nights for free in your motor home!
They have an amazing innovation with their labels containing braille information for the visually impaired.


Describes one or more of your linked EC2-Classic instances. This request only returns information about EC2-Classic instances linked to a VPC through ClassicLink; you cannot use this request to return information about other instances.
One or more instance IDs. Must be instances linked to a VPC through ClassicLink.
instanceIds - One or more instance IDs. Must be instances linked to a VPC through ClassicLink.
group-id - The ID of a VPC security group that's associated with the instance.
vpc-id - The ID of the VPC that the instance is linked to.
The maximum number of results to return for the request in a single page. The remaining results of the initial request can be seen by sending another request with the returned NextToken value. This value can be between 5 and 1000; if MaxResults is given a value larger than 1000, only 1000 results are returned. You cannot specify this parameter and the instance IDs parameter in the same request.
maxResults - The maximum number of results to return for the request in a single page. The remaining results of the initial request can be seen by sending another request with the returned NextToken value. This value can be between 5 and 1000; if MaxResults is given a value larger than 1000, only 1000 results are returned. You cannot specify this parameter and the instance IDs parameter in the same request.


K·Coe Isom's Government and Public Affairs team acts as champions for the overall good of the food and agriculture industry. Our team serves as your eyes and ears, constantly monitoring what is happening in Washington D.C. and state capitals around the United States. We serve as your voice in supporting policy that matters most to you. We are the boots on the ground to help policymakers to make informed decisions that provide advantages to you, and do not become obstacles to your success.
In a rapidly changing world full of uncertainty, we help you manage state and federal policy risks. Our government and public affairs team can be your eyes and ears alerting you to critical issues and helping to shape government policies to provide you and your business with a competitive advantage.
With offices on Capitol Hill, K·Coe Isom's Government and Public Affairs works closely with members of congress, federal officials, and state policy makers to shape policies to benefit you and your business. Our director of government and public affairs served as chief of staff and legislative director to a senior U.S. Senator and has over two decades of experience working with issues on Capitol Hill.
Involved in the issues, we monitor legislation and proposed regulations daily and consider the long-term impacts to our clients. Our team analyzes proposed policy changes and conducts detailed modeling to explain how policy changes will impact business. Given K·Coe Isom's depth of knowledge in key industries, policy makers have come to trust and rely on our expertise to deliver informed recommendations that they can rely on to shape policy.
When we see a red flag, we work to build coalitions to change policy. We do this by tapping into our extensive network — such as large corporations, utility, technical researchers and scientists, health and environmental non-governmental organizations, and legislators — to align toward a common goal and address challenges. Our government and public affairs team has built and managed some of the leading nationwide campaigns to shape policy on issues important to you.
We have successfully worked to influence legislative and policy issues, such as international trade policy, federal and state tax reform, water infrastructure legislation, sustainability, and agriculture and conservation funding.
Download our succession planning guide to learn about the four essential steps to prepare for a successful succession plan.
Get the latest information on legislation, tax reform, business guidance and on farm optimization strategies from your K·Coe Isom Ag Experts.
What should farmers and ranchers know about the final 199A regulations? Have questions about C-corporation rental payments? IRS clarifies the tax-related rules . . .


Do you have a room with walls that meet at 90 degrees AND other walls that meet 60 degrees? Tired of buying different tables to fit in each corner? Look no further!
Finally a table that accommodates the non-committal RSVPs of the millennial generation! Planned a dinner for four and one friend cancels at the last minute? No worries, quickly transform your four person table into a stylish three seater.
This table is based on a hinged dissection of a triangle into a square. The table was my final project for my welding class. I found an explanation of this hinged dissection (called Dudeney's Dissection) in How Round is Your Circle by John Bryant and Chris Sangwin. I began by drafting the geometric construction on paper and then in AutoCad. The cool thing about geometric constructions is you can draw them using only a straight edge and a compass. Below is a sample of my drafting for the table.
Triangle and square positions. Yellow circles represent leg placement and purple represent hinges.
The four moving pieces of the table with box tube layout.
I decided to build the table with a 1″ steel box tube frame and wooden inlay. Since the angles had to be exact, a degree off would result in a gap in the table, I printed out the layout full scale and built a jig directly on top of the drafting. I checked each cut against the full scale drafting to ensure the angle was correct.
Table section in welding jig.
Welded sections assembled in the two table positions.
The next big challenge was the hinges. Each hinged section had to move a full 180 degrees. This would not be difficult with wood, since you could just inset the hinges like you would with a door. But with thin (16 gauge) tube, I did not think that I could inset them accurately. Further more, the hinge had to be strong enough to support the table in the resting position and while being rotated. After lots of research and a few prototypes, I ended up creating a simple hinge with a bolt that mounted to the underside of the table.
Hinge mounted to underside of table.
Finally, I made some simple legs out of schedule 40 pipe and through bolted them.
Overall, I'm happy with how the table turned out. I plan on making another version entirely out of wood with the hinges better integrated into the design. The table is a little unstable (it works fine as a side table, but I wouldn't want to eat on it), since there is no locking mechanism to hold it in position. On my next version I plan on adding some sort of lock to the bottom of the table.
A tiny birdcage I made out of assorted hardware. The cage is made from double-headed nails, a large metal ring, and two 1/2″ nuts.
This project was part of my senior seminar in Dramatic Arts at Centre College. I majored in both math and theatre at Centre and this was my attempt to combine my two favorite subjects into one project.
Although the brunt of the work occurred over one semester, I have always been interested in the intersection of mathematics and art. For me, math has an inherent aesthetic appeal. A well written proof not only has the intellectual beauty of a clearly expressed idea (which might only be accessible with some knowledge of the subject), but a physical presence on the page that can affect the viewer much like a painting.
I often draw inspiration for my art projects from math. My work in the theatre (and art projects in general) is bolstered by my interest in mathematics. Obviously, an understanding of geometry helps me to be a better carpenter. And I think some proofs could go in an art gallery with no finessing. But on a more subtle level, I find myself associating my work to broad mathematical ideas. Mathematics has shaped the way I view the world and therefore the way I work.
This was a long-winded way of saying: math and art have never been disparate subjects to me. This project was my attempt to make this connection even more explicit. My approach was to make mathematical ideas and proofs into exciting and beautiful artistic expressions. While I had many ideas, this was the final pared down 30-minute presentation version of my 'Mathematical Emporium'.
Using Diana Taimina's book Crocheting Adventures with Hyperbolic Planes, I created several crocheted planes. I also made a few hyperbolic planes made of paper. One of my goals with the presentation was to make complicated mathematical concepts accessible. I gave a brief explanation of hyperbolic space and its properties.
My next piece was a folding wooden proof of the Pythagorean theorem. My final version was made from oak with ribbon for hinges. An early version is seen to the right. Inspiration for this proof came from the book How Round is Your Circle.
My final piece was a small quilt of the Fibonacci spiral. This famous mathematical illustration is a classic example of mathematics in art.
I'm going to try and keep a blog with my current art projects. I will slowly post older art projects that I've done over the past few years. For my first post, here is one of my favorite projects. It was a gift for my friend Paige, who loves books and hung out in the library with me a lot in college. I have always loved making miniature things, so these little books were super fun.
The tiny library is housed inside an Altoids tin with cedar shelves. All materials are recycled from what would have been trash. I made each book from cereal boxes and pages from an old book. The bindings were created by cutting out cardboard rectangles and carefully scoring the cardboard for the binding. The books are bound properly, so I made tiny little packets of pages, sewed them together and then glued several packets into the binding. The books can be opened and closed just like real books.
I painted each book with a base coat of acrylic paints. The gold and bronze details are enamel paint.
I'm really happy with the final result! Tiny books that are fully functional.


text:
Ghanaians urged to demand accountability as a matter of their human rights
The Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative (CHRI), Africa Office, has called on Ghanaians to demand accountability from public officers for the realization of their human rights.
CHRI specifically encourages Ghanaians to demand their human rights as guaranteed in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).
Coincidentally, December 10 marks International Human Rights Day.
In commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) on December 10, 2018, CHRI uses the occasion to celebrate successes and recommit to the principles outlined in the Declaration's 30 Articles.
In a statement, CHRI noted the strides that have been made so far in the 70 years, citing the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, who had summarized the gains and prospects of human rights movements as follows:
"Over the past 70 years the Declaration has inspired liberation movements and led to better access to justice, social protections, economic opportunities and political participation. Wherever respect for its commitments has been present, the dignity of millions has been uplifted, suffering prevented and the foundations laid for a more just world. We need to keep pushing forward".
CHRI again established the relationship which exists between Human Rights and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and how Ghana and Africa at large can realise these goals.
It also noted that the government has a key role to play in the realization of Human Rights but observed "corruption leads to violation of the government's human rights obligation".
Find the full statement below:
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS DAY 2018 COMMEMORATING THE 70TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS (UDHR)
Today December 10th, is a day the world commemorates International Human Rights Day every year. This year also marks the climax of the year-long celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).
The Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative, Africa Office joins Ghanaians and the International Community to commemorate the day and Stand up for human rights. As noted by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet in a message to commemorate the day, "over the past 70 years the Declaration has inspired liberation movements and led to better access to justice, social protections, economic opportunities and political participation. Wherever respect for its commitments has been present, the dignity of millions has been uplifted, suffering prevented and the foundations laid for a more just world.
We need to keep pushing forward" The human rights movement has made great strides in the past seven decades, but abuses still occur with saddening regularity. The anniversary of the Declaration is an opportunity to celebrate successes and recommit ourselves to the principles outlined in the Declaration's 30 Articles. The UDHR, with its constant standards of equality, justice and human dignity, lays a solid foundation of a just world for all UN member states and their citizens.
The Declaration is a commitment, by all States, that they will protect and promote human rights. Without the respect for human rights, other equally important UN values such as development, peace and security cannot be attained.
Ghana just like many countries is "big" on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a means of improving the lives of its citizens. Human rights are at the heart of the SDGs, since in the absence of human dignity we cannot drive sustainable development. "A human right is clean water and food (SDG 6, SDG 2), it is health (SDG 3) and the opportunity to lead a peaceful life (SDG 16); It is life on land (SDG 15) and walking the Earth among its many beings (SDG 13, SDG 14).
Human Rights are driven by progress on all SDGs, and the SDGs are driven by advancements on human rights." We at the CHRI Africa Office have chosen to focus on Goal 16 and its targets as we commemorate this day, for these lie at the heart of our work.
The goal addresses issues of human security and access to justice; corruption, transparency and accountability; discrimination and exclusion of marginalised groups from political and governance processes as well as human rights and fundamental freedoms.
As Ghana joins the world to commemorate 70 years of the UDHR, CHRI Africa re-iterates calls it made to Government in 2017 i.e. "Human rights are indivisible and interdependent, and the consequences of corrupt governance are multiple and touch on all human rights — civil, political, economic, social and cultural, as well as the right to development.
Corruption leads to violation of the government's human rights obligation "to take steps… to the maximum of its available resources, with a view to achieving progressively the full realization of the rights recognized in the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights". Corruption will also limit government from meeting the SDGs in general and Goal 16 specifically.
Therefore CHRI Africa once again urges Government to Stand up for Human Rights and take cognizance of the fact that some of the measures that can enhance transparency and accountability and contribute to sustainable anti-corruption measures and the fulfilment of the benefits of the UDHR and the SDGs are the adoption of laws that ensure the public's access to information on governmental processes, decisions and policies-the Passage of a credible the RTI Bill into law- (which is fundamental to the realization of all other human rights), as well as institutional reforms which strengthen transparency and accountability.
We also call on all Ghanaians to Stand up for Human Rights by demanding accountability from public officers.
Wishing all Ghanaians a Happy and Fruitful Human Rights Day
By P.D Wedam|3news.com|Ghana
Follow @pdwedam
C/R: NSS personnel build 5-bedroom house for orphanage, from allowances
No cause for alarm in case of earthquake! Nadmo claims knowing all fault line


Our Italy family trip report this week features an Italian American family who wanted Italy trip planning for a holiday that included exploring their Italian heritage along with family-friendly activities for a family of five traveling with three active teenage boys. They wanted to avoid renting a car to whatever degree possible, and stick with a value mid-level budget at boutique lodging in areas with less-touristy options for teenagers to have some free time to explore. Their lodging for 13 nights and 14 days of travel was around $4000.00, transportation for train tickets and rental car was $500.00, and they splurged on some wow factor activities with an activities final budget of $2200.00. For a family of five, they squeezed in tons of fun on an Italy family trip budget of around $7000 for almost two weeks of travel.
The family flew in to Venice Marco Polo airport, arriving mid-day, and took a water taxi from the airport to their hotel (120 euro), which was easily accessible directly off the small inner canal of Calle Barozzi, near Teatro La Fenice and St. Mark's Square. They stayed in a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom family suite w/additional single bed in one of the bedrooms at the Hotel Corte Barozzi for 400 euro/night. The room had enchanting views overlooking San Moise' Canal with a lovely roof terrace. The location is convenient to St. Mark's Square, only about 200 meters away, yet on a quieter "campo," with less touristy hustle and bustle.
On the first day, the family took the water ferry to the colorful island of Burano for lunch, then on to Murano Island to visit the glass blowing studios. In the evening, mom and dad enjoyed an aperitivo of bellinis at Harry's Bar while the boys explored the area around the hotel. On the second day in Venice, they learned of the intrigue and legends apparent in the art and architecture of the Doge's Palace, St. Mark's Cathedral, and St. Mark's Square on a Context Travel private family tour with a guide who engaged the whole family in the intrigues of the history of Venice, then took the elevator up to the top of the Campanile for the view. After lunch, they took in the Grand Canal views by hopping on vaporetto line #1 and taking it along the entirety of the Grand Canal for a tour of the city from the water.
On Day 3 of their family Italy trip they took a water taxi back to Piazzale Roma to rent a car and drive the 2.5 hour drive to Agriturismo Antica Corte Pallavicino in Parma. The hotel was a true regional experience, in a 14th-century fortified castello on a working dairy farm with a Michellin star-rated restaurant and views of the Po River, along with their own vineyard, vegetable garden, orchards, and salumi production. On their first day in Parma, they visited the Ferrari Museum and took a Test Drive, taking home the fun video the museum offers from the test drive as a cool souvenir! Day 4 was spent relaxing and enjoying the legendary cuisine of Parma with Italian relatives.
After their stay in Parma, they drove to Florence, dropping the rental car off at the Hertz desk at via Borgo Ognissanti near the Santa Maria Novella train station, and took a taxi to their holiday apartment at Palazzo Belfiore, an apartment hotel in a historic Renaissance palazzo in the Oltrarno neighborhood of Florence, where they rented the historic frescoed apartment Clarice. The local welcome by the owners of Palazzo Belfiore meant they were greeted by great dining tips in the neighborhood, and assistance with dinner reservations. The first night they ate a fabulous meal around the corner at Osteria Toscanella, and then gelato in the tiny local gelateria in Piazza della Passera.
Sightseeing in Florence was fun for all with visits to the Duomo, climbing to the top of the Cathedral, prepaid entrance tickets to the Accademia to see Michelangelo's David statue, and a visit to Palazzo Davanzati, a Renaissance home restored just as it was. Finally, they had purchased skip-the-line late afternoon entrance tickets to the Uffizi Gallery, entering at 4:00 pm to beat the crowds (it's best to purchase tickets directly from the state museum site, Polo Museale). On their last day in Florence, they took the train to Siena for an easy Tuscany family day trip, only an hour train ride from the city center.
From Florence, they moved on to Rome, taking the Frecciarosa fast train line, which took an hour and a half, and then a short taxi to their nearby hotel in the charming neighborhood of Monti. As a family of 5, they had to take two taxis, but the ride only cost about 8 euro per taxi to head to Monti. They checked in to boutique hotel Salotto Monti in 1 Superior Double Room and 1 Triple Room for $1200 for 3 nights, including breakfast on the gorgeous rooftop terrace. From this location, they could easily walk or take a quick bus or taxi to all of the sites in Rome's historical center, and enjoy the less touristy and family-friendly dining in the more locally inhabited Monti area.
Rome activities included a few bucket list items, like a 4-hour Foodie Vespa tour of the city in the late afternoon with Scooteroma tours ($1200 for 5 people), a fun orientation to the city with a taste of local Roman culinary specialties. The Scooteroma guides met them at the hotel with the scooters and they easily set out to explore the sites of Rome as well as stopping to check out some foodie spots along the way.
On the second day in Rome, they splurged on a Sistine Chapel private viewing and small group visit to the Vatican's Secret rooms, along with a general tour of the Vatican. That evening, they enjoyed the set menu diner at one of our top Rome restaurant recommendations, Asino d'Oro at Via del Boschetto 73, a wonderful restaurant on via del Boschetto in Monti that is distinctly untouristy.
From Rome they took the fast train to Naples, a little over an hour, where a car service met them at the train station and drove them to their hotel on the Amalfi Coast in Praiano for 150 euro. They stayed at Hotel Tramonto d'Oro in a seaview Mediterranean quad room for 450 euro/night with breakfast. They spent the afternoon at beach club One Fire Beach at the famous Gavitella Beach and enjoyed dinner at the hotel on the terrace with views looking out toward Capri and Positano. The next day, the hotel organized a day trip to Capri, with time to stop for a swim and jumping off cliffs on the way back to Praiano.
The last day, they awoke early to squeeze in a 2-hour hike on the Path of the Gods, ascending up the hill toward Ravello. Sad to say goodbye to Praiano, they took a car transfer back to Naples train station and the train back to Rome's Termini Station, then connected to the Leonardo da Vinci express train to Fiumicino Airport, and conveniently walked across the causeway to their airport hotel at the Hilton Rome Airport to spend the night in one room with 2 double beds ($335.00) before departing on an early morning flight the next day.


text:
Matthews looking for more Tour de Slovénie success
Australian recovered from injuries which forced him to withdraw from the Giro d'Italia
A smiling Michael Matthews (Orica-GreenEdge) (Image credit: Tim de Waele/TDWSport.com)
Simon Yates climbs (Image credit: Susanne Goetze)
Michael Matthews (Orica-GreenEdge) won the first prologue of his career at the Tour de Slovénie in his first race since withdrawing from the Giro d'Italia. The win was Matthews' fourth individual victory as he covered the 8.8km course in 10:05, six seconds ahead of Kristijan Koren (Cannondale) with Diego Ulissi (Lampre-Merida) in third.
Simon Yates crashes out of the Tour of Turkey
Matthews wins Tour of Slovenia prologue
"Judging by how I was feeling in the warm-up, I wasn't too confident in the time trial today," said Matthews. "In the end, I got there and did my best. Despite the feeling I had in the warm-up, it was enough to win. It's nice to come off altitude and take a win straight away. It's a good confidence boost going into the next few stages and the next big goals of the year."
Matthews is also targeting victory on stage 2, a lumpy 160.7km from Ribnica to Kočevje and is also looking to hold onto the race leader's jersey. Something he's accustomed to after spending six days in the Giro's maglia rosa.
"It's a really good course for us," said GreenEdge's sports director Matt Wilson of stage 2. "There's quite a hard climb with 30 kilometres to go, which suits Michael really well. We're definitely be going out there trying to get the stage win with him again."
"I've done lots of climbing training at altitude recently," Matthews said. "Hopefully that does me a favour tomorrow, and I can go for another really good result like today. We'll enjoy the win tonight and get back to business tomorrow. We have a great team here to support me in this role."
Simon Yates also had a successful return to racing after breaking his collarbone at the Tour de Turkey as the fastest young rider in the prologue and starts stage 2 as the leader of that classification.


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Mathematical Problems in Engineering / 2015 / Article
AbstractIntroductionConclusionsReferencesCopyright
Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Soft Computing
Guodong Wang, Zhanwen Niu, Zhen He, "Accelerated Lifetime Data Analysis with a Nonconstant Shape Parameter", Mathematical Problems in Engineering, vol. 2015, Article ID 801465, 8 pages, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/801465
Accelerated Lifetime Data Analysis with a Nonconstant Shape Parameter
Guodong Wang ,1 Zhanwen Niu,1 and Zhen He1
1College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Academic Editor: Shifei Ding
Received09 May 2014
Revised29 Sep 2014
Accepted13 Oct 2014
Accelerated life test is commonly used for the estimation of high-reliability product. In this paper, we present a simple and efficient approach to estimate the coefficients of acceleration models. Assuming that both scale and shape parameters of Weibull lifetime distribution vary with stress factors, we estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution using maximum likelihood method and reduce the bias of shape parameter estimator. Considering the heteroscedasticity, we compute the estimates of the coefficients of acceleration models through weighted least square method. Additionally, we obtain the confidence interval of low percentile via bootstrapping. We compare the proposed method with other methods using a real lifetime example. Finally, we study the performance of the proposed method by simulation. The simulation results show that our proposed method is effective.
In reliability experiments, one is often interested in obtaining inference on low percentile at normal conditions. In today's competitive market, for high-reliability products, the experiments are often censored within a limited period of time. Thus, it is very difficult or impossible to get enough lifetime data to estimate reliability. Accelerated life test (ALT) is commonly used for forcing products to fail more quickly. In ALT, products are tested under higher than usual conditions to reduce the test time and to collect more failure time information. Detailed description on ALT can be found in the studies by Lawless [1], Nelson [2], and Meeker and Escobar [3]. Some software packages have been developed and refined for reliability data analysis, such as Minitab, R, and SAS. Rigdon et al. [4] provided a tutorial on lifetime data analysis using the statistical software packages.
Often, the methods for lifetime data analysis assumed that the scale parameter varies with stress factors but the shape parameter remains constant when lifetime data followed a Weibull distribution. In many applications, however, this assumption may not be appropriate, such as metal fatigue, electronics reliability, and reliability physics. Meeter and Meeker [5] developed the statistical models and optimum ALT with a nonconstant shape parameter, and more examples with a nonconstant shape parameter can be found in their references. Seo et al. [6] designed accelerated life test sampling plans with a nonconstant shape parameter of Weibull distribution.
There are only a few attempts trying to analyze lifetime data based on a Weibull distribution with a nonconstant shape parameter. Maximum likelihood method is generally recommended for estimating the coefficients of accelerated failure time models. The estimates can be obtained by solving likelihood equations. However, the closed form does not exist. Instead, they are approximated by numerical methods. The Newton-Raphson algorithm is very sensitive to the starting points, and it may fail when the number of the starting points is big. To ensure the estimates converge, Balakrishnan and Ling [7] found maximum likelihood estimates through expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Wang and Kececioglu [8] presented a generalized linear model (GLM) approach to estimate the coefficients of acceleration models. However, the EM or GLM approach does not seem to have enjoyed extensive application probably because it is too "statistical" for some practitioners to intuitively grasp.
In this paper, we present an approach for estimating the coefficients of accelerated failure time models using weighted least square method. Firstly, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of Weibull shape and scale parameters. Secondly, we compute asymptotic covariance matrix by inverting the observed Fisher information matrix. Finally, we get the corresponding coefficients for acceleration models by weighted least square method. Furthermore, we introduce a procedure for performing confidence intervals of low percentiles via bootstrapping. It is well known that the maximum likelihood estimators are biased. We reduce the bias of shape parameter estimator by unbiasing factor method or modified maximum likelihood method.
The paper is organized as follows: in the following section, we introduce model description and assumption of ALT. Then, we provide a method including coefficients estimation and confidence interval estimation of low percentiles based on bootstrapping. Next we compare our proposed method with EM and GLM methods via a real lifetime example. And then we study the performance of the proposed method by simulation. Finally, we present some conclusions and future work.
2. Model Description and Assumption
The Weibull distribution is a very popular distribution for modeling the lifetime data because of its flexibility in being able to model multiple types of failure mechanisms. For , a random variable denoting the lifetime data, the commonly used parameterization of the two-parameter Weibull probability density function (PDF) is and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) is where is the time to failure and and are the scale and shape parameters, respectively.
We consider an ALT with right censored data involving stress levels, and the number of the samples of th stress level is . We assume that the failure times of the th stress level follow a Weibull distribution with scale parameter and shape parameter . and depend on the (possibly transformed) stress levels through the acceleration models where and are the vectors of regression parameters and is the th vector of designed stress level.
3. Proposed Method
This section contains a presentation of proposed method for estimating the parameters of acceleration models and bootstrapping for confidence intervals of low percentiles. We estimate low percentiles by maximum likelihood method and weighted least square method and then predict intervals by bootstrapping.
3.1. Estimating Parameters and Reducing Bias
Let be the lifetime for the th item within the th stress level, and it follows a Weibull distribution. The likelihood function with right censoring present is where if the item fails and if the item is right censored. is a constant dependent on censoring type.
The log likelihood function for the th stress level with right censoring present is
The shape parameter and scale parameter can be estimated by solving likelihood equations or maximizing formula (5).
The lifetime data may be censored and the variances of error terms may not be constant for different stress levels, so there is a problem of heteroscedasticity. Thus, we use weighted least square method for estimating parameters. The parameter estimates, and , can be computed by where is a matrix of designed stress levels and
The estimated variances of and can be obtained by inverting the observed Fisher information matrix. Now, we introduce the procedure in brief.
From formula (5), it can be shown that
Rinne [9] pointed out that if there does not exist censoring within the th stress level, then the estimated asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of is
If there exists censoring within the th stress level, the estimated asymptotic variance-covariance matrix is then
We calculate the estimates of variances by and .
It is well known that the maximum likelihood estimate of the Weibull shape parameter is biased. The bias may be very serious in the case of small sample or heavy censoring. Yang and Xie [10] proposed an estimator for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution under the notion of parameter orthogonalization. The estimator proposed by Yang and Xie [10] can reduce the bias for complete and censored data. It can be easily proved that the ratio between the estimator obtained from the study by Yang and Xie [10] and the shape parameter is a pivotal quantity for complete and type II censoring. We can reduce the bias further via unbiasing factor method.
The theoretical justification for using unbiasing factor method is based on the existence of pivotal quantity. Thoman et al. [11] proved that there are two pivotal quantities with shape parameter and scale parameter of Weibull distribution for complete data, and then Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the unbiasing factor of the shape parameter estimator. Ross [12] introduced a formula for calculating the unbiasing factor of the shape parameter estimator in the case of complete data. Ross [13] extended this work to the case of type II censored data with 50% or less censoring.
In this paper, we reduce the bias of maximum likelihood estimator of shape parameter using modified maximum likelihood method which is proposed by Yang and Xie [10] for the case of the failure time is type I censored. When the failure time is complete or type II censored, we reduce the bias using unbiasing factor method.
3.2. Interval Prediction
In reliability data analysis, interest is focused on the low quantities. These low percentiles provide engineers with an evaluation of the product's early failures along with providing information for specification limits, warranty, and cost analysis, but we cannot compute confidence intervals around predicted values because the Fisher information matrix does not exist.
Bootstrapping is a straightforward way to derive estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals for complex estimators of complex parameters of the distribution. DiCiccio and Efron [14] presented several types of bootstrap confidence intervals including standard, percentile, and bootstrap-. Edwards et al. [15] compared two wood plastic composite extruders using bootstrapping confidence interval of percentiles.
We now describe a procedure for constructing the 100 % percentile bootstrapping confidence interval which involves the following steps.(1)Obtain and from the original samples and reduce the bias of .(2)Simulate bootstrapping samples from Weibull distributions with the same data type.(3)Obtain estimates of and , and , based on the bootstrapping samples and reduce the bias of .(4)Compute asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and obtain the estimates of coefficients and .(5)Compute , where is the vector of stress level.(6)Repeat steps (2)–(5) times to obtain a sample of bootstrapping estimate, , for , and then arrange the bootstrapping in ascending order.
The 100 % percentile bootstrapping confidence interval for is given by
4. Illustrative Example
In this section, we demonstrate the practical application of our proposed method and compare our proposed method with EM and GLM methods. Teng and Kolarik [16] designed and performed a life test experiment to study the on/off cycling characteristics of small DC motors. The voltage , operation type , and load were considered to be stress factors. The lifetime data are summarized in Table 1.
Voltage Operation type Load Time to failure (hours)
3 1 0.20 71.79 85.24 96.01 100.68 104.21 112.65 114.84 115.03 128.66
3 1 0.48 51.99 74.19 74.69 91.05 91.05 100.11 112.99
6 1 0.30 9.03 10.62 12.38 13.92 15.48 18.82
6 1 0.65 4.27 5.32 5.76 6.68 7.62 8.66 8.78 9.19 10.33 10.78
3 0 0.48 84.57 115.79 151.20 154.85 164.55 186.24
6 0 0.65 6.57 8.25 8.50 8.87 8.96 9.74 9.98 11.58 12.09 13.89
3 0 0.08 152.74 176.32 195.35 213.32 214.07 228.26 242.18 264.56
Failure data for the seven operating policies.
We consider the main factors and 2-interaction effects in this example. Because the lifetime data is complete, we calculate the estimates of Weibull parameters by unbiasing factor method. We repeat steps (2)–(5) 10,000 times and get the values of unbiasing factors for that are shown in Table 2. The results in Table 2 indicate that is greater than true value of . The bias of gradually becomes smaller when increases from 5 up to 10. But the relative bias is very serious even when . Table 3 shows the values of estimates obtained through maximum likelihood method. Bias of the estimator, , shown in Table 3 has been reduced via unbiasing factor method.
Unbiased factor value 1.3302 1.2638 1.2201 1.1922 1.1645
Unbiasing factor values of different number of samples.
Stress level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6.4018 4.2943 3.4102 3.7409 3.9950 4.3877 5.9420
109.0104 90.9359 14.2697 8.4077 152.7174 10.5409 222.5437
The estimates of shape and scale parameters.
We estimate the coefficients of acceleration models using different methods. Table 4 shows the results of estimates of and obtained by our proposed method, GLM method, and EM method. We see in Table 4 that the estimates of and obtained by different methods have similar values.
Predictor Proposed method GLM method EM method
Intercept 7.4322 2.6977 7.410 2.667 7.4044 2.7464
−0.6506 −0.2788 −0.640 −0.208 −0.6380 −0.2338
−0.9019 0.4384 −0.910 0.338 −0.9033 0.3339
−0.0774 −2.6829 0.006 −1.879 0.0019 −2.0063
0.0808 −0.0527 0.081 −0.035 0.0793 −0.0258
The estimates of and .
Practitioners may be more interested in the lifetime of -percentile. We calculate the percentiles in the case of , 0.05, 0.10, 0.50. In order to compare our proposed method with GLM and EM methods, we evaluate the estimates of low percentiles by the relative bias (RB), where . The procedure is described as follows.(1)Calculate , where is the inverse cumulative distribution function for the smallest extreme value distribution and and are obtained from Table 3.(2)Estimate and using different methods and then calculate and , respectively.(3)Calculate using and obtained from step (2).(4)Compare our proposed method with GLM and EM methods according to the values of RB.
The results are shown in Table 5. From Table 5 we can find that the values of are close to the values of . is the smallest, meaning that our proposed method is the best.
level RB1 RB2 RB3 RB1 RB2 RB3 RB1 RB2 RB3 RB1 RB2 RB3
1 0.02 13.12 14.07 0.01 8.58 9.25 0.01 6.63 7.18 0.01 1.69 1.96
2 0.18 26.92 26.07 0.01 17.27 16.86 0.01 13.25 13.01 0.01 3.36 3.52
6 0.32 17.32 17.71 0.03 11.40 11.67 0.02 8.88 9.11 0.02 2.55 2.67
RB1, RB2, and RB3 are relative biases of the proposed method, GLM method, and EM method (in %), respectively.
Relative bias of .
Additionally, our proposed method can obtain confidence interval using bootstrapping. The number of resampling is 10,000 times. We calculate the percentiles and their inferences in the case of . The results are shown in Table 6.
Stress level
1 335.63 658.67 887.12 1933.73
20.5, 706.1 139.0, 1200.3 289.6, 1674.9 849.8, 5851.5
1.5, 401.6 15.2, 597.2 42.4, 726.0 376.6, 1482.2
109.0, 701.8 282.0, 1067.0 411.9, 1302.3 886.0, 2552.7
4 92.54 207.08 295.54 749.69
7.1, 187.9 39.7, 323.6 81.5, 414.4 376.3, 965.4
5 425.63 589.89 681.34 993.51
154.4, 589.5 307.5, 729.7 412.9, 804.0 777.8, 1058.3
The percentile estimates and bootstrapping confidence intervals.
5. Simulation Study
This section studies the effect of several factors on the performance of the proposed approach. In this paper, the particular factors used are the number of stress levels , the sample size at the th stress level , censoring time , and the proportion of noncensoring data .
Teng and Kolarik [16] designed a life experiment which is cited in Section 4. We study the cases of , , and . For the case of , we choose the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th stress levels as new stress levels and only consider main factors. For type I censoring, the life experiment of the th stress level is terminated at which is subject to . The results are based on 10,000 simulations.
Figure 1 shows the changes of relative biases for different percentiles in the case of . The relative biases of percentiles are the averages of all stress levels. We see in Figure 1 that the relative biases for all the types of censoring and the proportion of noncensoring data become smaller when increases from 10 up to 50. The relative biases are less than 0.1 in most cases.
The relative biases of percentiles for the case of .
Figure 2 shows the changes of relative biases for different percentiles in the case of . From Table 2 we find that the relative biases are less than 0.2 in most cases. For , 0.10, and 0.50, the relative biases are less than 0.15.
6. Conclusions and Future Work
In this paper, we propose a new approach to estimate the coefficients of acceleration models. Our method is much simpler and can be complemented easily. The confidence interval of low percentile is difficult to calculate analytically, so we obtain the numerical solution via bootstrapping.
Many reliability life tests contain blocking or subsampling. This is often because treatments are directly applied to test stands rather than individual specimen. Freeman and Vining [17] presented two-stage method to deal with subsampling. Wang et al. [18] extended Freeman and Vining's method such that it can compute confidence interval of low percentile, but their research assumes that the shape parameter is constant. The clear future work is to analyze reliability data with subsampling under shape and scale parameters that are varied.
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests regarding the publication of this paper.
This research was supported in part by Grants 71401123, 70931004, 71071107, and 71225006 from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
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