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Orthomolecular medical researchers say the future of psychiatry is in nutrition because nutrition has such a long, safe and effective history of correcting many mental problems.
Starting us out on a path of discovery and healing, the Orthomolecular Medicine News Service (www.orthomolecular.org) recommends a simple but abundant daily nutrition program that has been effective in making many of the symptoms of what is today called "mental illness" disappear without trace. This might be news to most psychiatrists, but it isn't unknown by any means to people who are keeping track of developments in nutritional medicine.
After I forwarded the orthomolecular news item to some interested people, I got a reply which I would like to share. It is living proof, if we need it, that this nutritional approach does indeed work infinitely better than the drugs psychiatrists normally supply to "quiet down" those ill minds of ours.
Orthomolecular medical researchers say the future of psychiatry is in nutrition because nutrition has such a long, safe and effective history of correcting many mental problems. Nutrients such as the B-vitamins are most successful when taken regularly, taken in relatively high doses, and taken in conjunction with vitamin C, the essential fatty acids (EFA's), and the minerals magnesium and selenium.
As pointed out by chemistry professor and vitamin discoverer Roger J. Williams, PhD (6), each individual has different nutritional needs and responds differently to nutrients. Are you tired of being depressed, suffering from anxiety, paying huge prescription drug bills for unsafe prescriptions that don't solve the problem or produce undesirable side effects? Are you tired of the piece-meal trial and error approach to finding a solution to your mental or emotional problems? If so, adults should consider the following nutritional protocol, which will bathe your brain and nerves in natural nutrients and may well produce dramatic results. The cost of trying the program below is less than the cost of a typical doctor's office visit. It is safe and convenient. All of these nutrients can be purchased at large discount stores.
Andrew W. Saul, contact person. email: omns@orthomolecular.org.
1. Hoffer A. Vitamin B-3: Niacin and its amide. Also: Cheraskin E, Ringsdorf WM and Brecher A. Psychodietetics. Bantam Books, 1974.
4. Hoffer A. Healing children's attention and behavior disorders: Complementary nutritional & psychological treatments. Toronto: CCNM Press, 2004. Also: Hoffer A. Dr. Hoffer's ABC of natural nutrition for children. Kingston, Ontario: Quarry Press, 1999.
I sincerely appreciate your posting this information & would like to share with you a success story. Many of the readers of this already know our grandson, Noah (soon to be 17), who was horribly & legally drug abused with upwards of 1,000 mgs daily of psych drugs. When we gained his custody he was 14 & was in deplorable condition: Head badly swollen & face taking on oriental appearance from fluid retention, drooling, hallucinations, diabetes, shuffling gait, loss of memory, difficulty staying awake, suicidal, homicidal, body tremors, etc., etc. You get the picture. Noah had been on a total of 16 psych drugs during the years we fought for him & was on 7 of them when we got him!
My husband & I had Noah tested/evaluated to learn where he was in education & development -- outcome indicated 2nd grade level & he was 14! We were advised he was learning disabled and handicapped and would probably not make any progress for he was "mentally ill" and dangerous. No one was going to label or condemn our grandson to a life of trauma and insignificance! I began ardent study of nutrition which developed into the regimen (vitamin wise) that you have displayed below, tho the levels are not quite the same.
13 months of homeschooling was combined with Noah going thru detox in our home -- and the vitamin regimen never stopped, nor did the love! Noah is now in public school, in the 10th grade, and has just gotten his 9-week report of a B+ in Algebra, a subject all educators had told us he could not handle! He is holding his own as far as grades go, but we intend to see him develop more commitment and interest in his studies and his grades. He has turned into a handsome and muscular young man who has earned his Blue Belt in Karate, with a goal of earning the coveted Black Belt by the time he finishes high school! People from across the country (& especially local citizens) inquire frequently as to how did we do this, including the neuropsychiatrist, psychologist, and psychiatrist, and medical doctor who saw Noah's medical/mental "health" records, and worked with him as he came off the drugs! These professionals are intrigued and dumbfounded as to his/our success & encourage us to share our info with them. We haven't bothered sharing much since they continue to prescribe the very poisonous chemicals that were used on Noah to put him into such horrid condition in the first place.
Some people look at me cross-eyed when they hear my response to the question of "How did you do it", & I respond it was with love and vitamins & nutrition! (By the way, Noah barely knows what beef tastes like & we'll keep it that way!) When they act skeptical & just point to Noah & tell them they are seeing the proof right before their eyes!
P.S. You can hear our story by going to www.worldtalkradio.com/archive.asp?aid=2813 and www.worldtalkradio.com/category.asp?cie=185.
Can you tell me of any Orthomolecular doctors in the state of Indiana?
You might try the Institute of Orthomolecular Medicine. They have information on doctors for you.
Are you asking for this information for your personal use, or has your request to do with your association with Eli Lilly?
I too am looking for someone in Indiana. Can you just self treat or do you need to see someone?
Here is a resource page for naturopathic physicians in Indiana.
I would suggest to consult one of these instead of just self-medicating.
SUFFERING VERY BADLY FROM DEPRESSION, 15 years, but the past year was the worst. suicidal, lost job of 20 years, tryed folate 2 weeks ago, feeling 80 per cent better, even with meds. could this be from the folate?
I'm having a difficult time locating one of these physicians anywhere on the east coast. Please help with some referrals,I live in PA.
Looking for anyone who could help me. I have been living through hell trying to find help for my son for two years. Am now trying to read/research and need to know if there is anyone in a 4 hour radius of Western Kentucky (Tennessee, southern ohio, near Evansville Indiana). If not what other options do I have?
Beth, see the previous comment by Julie and my answer posted on 18 Feb 2009. You should try the practitioner locator on the orthomolecular.org site The link is in the previous response.


In Exchange Server, safelist aggregation refers to sender and recipient data that's collected from all users' Junk Email options in Microsoft Outlook, Outlook on the web, or the Set-MailboxJunkEmailConfiguration cmdlet and shared with the built-in Exchange antispam agents. For more information, see Safelist aggregation.
Configure limits on the number of safe senders and blocked senders that are stored for specific mailboxes.
Verify that safelist aggregation is working correctly.
For more information about adding and removing entries from a user's safelist collection, see Use the Exchange Management Shell to configure the safelist collection on a mailbox.
You need to be assigned permissions before you can perform this procedure or procedures. To see what permissions you need, see the "Recipient Provisioning Permissions" section in the Recipients Permissions topic, and the "Antispam features" section in the Antispam and antimalware permissions topic.
Be aware of the replication traffic that might be generated when you run the Update-SafeList cmdlet. Running the command on multiple mailboxes where safelists are heavily used might generate a significant amount of network traffic. We recommend that if you run the command on multiple mailboxes, you should run the command during off-peak, non-business hours.
You can configure the maximum number of safe senders and blocked senders a user can configure. By default, users can configure up to 5,000 safe senders and 500 blocked senders.
This example configures the mailbox john@contoso.com to have a maximum of 2,000 safe senders and 200 blocked senders.
To verify that you have successfully configured the mailbox safelist collection limits, replace <MailboxIdentity> with the identity of the mailbox, and run the following command to verify the mailbox property values.
Safelist aggregation is done automatically, so you don't need to schedule or manually run the Update-Safelist cmdlet. However, you may want to occasionally run this cmdlet to test safelist aggregation.
This example writes the Safe Senders List for the mailbox john@contoso.com to Active Directory.
For detailed syntax and parameter information, see Update-SafeList.
The default value is SafeSenders.
The Content Filter agent doesn't use Safe Recipients list data, so the SafeRecipients or Both values are unnecessary.
By default, safelist aggregation doesn't include domain entries from the Safe Senders list (just email addresses), but you can configure it to include domain entries from the safelist collection. For more information, see Configure Content Filtering to Use Safe Domain Data.
This step is only required if you run the Content Filter agent on a subscribed Edge Transport server in your perimeter network.
Verify that the safelist collection data is updated for the user objects.
Verify that the Microsoft Exchange EdgeSync service has replicated the data to the AD LDS instance.
msExchSafeRecipientsHash: Stores the hash of the Safe Recipients List collection for the user.
msExchSafeSendersHash: Stores the hash of the Safe Senders List collection for the user.
msExchBlockedSendersHash: Stores the hash of the Blocked Senders List collection for the user.
If a hexadecimal string, such as 0xac 0xbd 0x03 0xca, is present on the attribute, the user object was updated. If the attribute has a value of <Not Set>, the attribute wasn't updated.
You can search for and view the attributes by using ADSI Edit on the Edge Transport server (run ADSIEdit.msc).
To test whether safelist aggregation is functioning, you need to send yourself a message from a safe sender that would otherwise be blocked by content filtering (for example, the message contains a blocked phrase). If safelist aggregation is functioning, the message should arrive in your Inbox.
Open your Exchange mailbox in Outlook, and add an external email address (associated with an account that you can access) to your Safe Senders List. For more information, see Add names to the Junk Email Filter lists.
Optional: if you're running the Content Filter agent on a subscribed Edge Transport server in the perimeter network, run the Start-EdgeSynchronization cmdlet to force EdgeSync replication.
Add-ContentFilterPhrase -Influence BadWord -Phrase "SafeList aggregation test"
For details, see Use the Exchange Management Shell to configure allowed and blocked phrases for content filtering.
From the external email account in step 1, send a message to your Exchange mailbox that includes the blocked phrase that you configured in step 4.
If the message is successfully delivered to your Inbox, safelist aggregation is working correctly.


text:
EVERYTHING FADES AWAY...IN TIME.
I hope that readers of this journal will forgive me for sharing a melancholy moment or two with them. I'm feeling the burden of the years a little more than usual at this point in time for some reason or another.
There's an element of my being that has never aged, or, at least, never completely grown up.
Yes, I forget things that I'm supposed to be dealing with this week, but remember, with astonishing clarity, things I did 50 years ago. The vagaries of the brain/mind interface are deep and mysterious.
The impermanence of life is something that we all have to accept. And accepting it is one of the basic tenets of Buddhism. I've often said that I'm the world's laziest Buddhist. In fact, I don't truly know if I'm a Buddhist at all. But, I find that Buddhism provides me with the most pragmatic and satisfying way to deal with the problem of existence.
Nevertheless, at the end of the day, who knows? It's all speculation and degrees of belief and 'faith.' We choose our path according to our individual lights. Realism is not, in general terms, one of our strong points.
I'm surrounded here by guitars, the tools of my 'trade', such as it is. These instruments hold memories, and implications, of past times. They take me back to my beginnings as a guitarist, and in a wider sense as a musician. Those stumbling, fumbling days when I wrestled with my old Zenith archtop acoustic guitar are still vivid in my mind.
The Zenith was the instrument that my father had bought for me, second hand, with the hope that my earlier interest in playing a toy plastic guitar might spark a more committed interest.
It was quite a big guitar, a beautiful dark sunburst archtop if I remember correctly. It had a label inside the 'F' hole that acted as a certification that the guitar was approved by Ivor Mairantz, a well respected session and jazz guitarist in the late '40s/early '50s. I found it difficult to play after the toy Elvis Presley guitar I'd received as a Christmas present. But I did my best with it, though I became frustrated with the physical difficulty of holding down its thick, heavy strings.
But later, on meeting a school friend who was equally struggling with the vagaries of learning to play guitar, I found a shared cause, another nacent guitarist on the path to somewhere or other...
This school chum was Ian Parkin, and we bonded on the subject of guitars, and, step by step, with the help of records by Duane Eddy, The Ventures, The Shadows and other, less well known names such as 'The Spotniks' and 'The Fireballs,' found the inspiration to continue along the path to a musical future.
And here I am now. Still besotted with music, with guitars, with the look and sound of them, but also wide open to so much more...
My infatuation with guitars has led to a broadening of music in general. Guitars only play a small part of the journey, albeit a very important one. They're my initial trigger in some ways, but just the starting point perhaps.
Music, in all its varieties, all its colours, textures and styles is right at the heart of what I attempt to do creatively.
Now I've wandered far away from what I originally intended to write about in this journal entry. Perhaps I'll elaborate further in a later journal.
But for now, that's enough...
Here is a photograph of Wakefield's Kirkgate area in the early '60s. You can just see 'Websters' music shop where, every lunch time, escaping from Ings Road Secondary Modern School, Ian Parkin and myself would walk to stand and stare in Webster's window at the guitars that were on display there. No Fenders or Gibsons, just British and European guitars, Burns, Fenton Weill, Eko, Hagstrom, Broadway, Watkins, Vox and other now obscure brands. But that window seemed like magic...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
The red apple. Dean's illustrated farthing books ; 9
Bibliographic Citation:
The red apple. London : Dean & Son, 11, Ludgate Hill, [between 1857 and 1865]
Dean & Son.
Dean & Son, 11, Ludgate Hill, [between 1857 and 1865]
Undated. Date from publisher's form of name and years of activity at address, cf. P.A.H. Brown. London publishers and printers, p. 55.
Cover title and imprint.
First sentence: "Little Delia was one day sent by her mother to do some errand in the yard."
Includes 3 woodcuts.
Copy in McGill Library's Rare Books and Special Collections, Sheila R. Bourke Collection: 1 of 48 books plus 5 duplicates. Black and white cuts used for more than one title. Pictorial buff wrappers. Duplicates from I. Mackenzie - $2.00. each; the remainder from Laurie Hill Ltd. - $10.00 the lot. Copy in McGill Library's Rare Books and Special Collections Children's Collection: 1 of 48 books in the series. Black & white cuts used for more than one title. Pictorial buff wrappers.
text.chapbook.black and white, 12 x 8 cm.
Kindness -- Juvenile fiction.
Christian life -- Juvenile fiction.
Chapbooks -- Specimens.
Chapbooks -- England -- London -- 19th century
Chapbook Category:
PN970 D4 D4 1857 no.9 Rare Books/Special Collections - Children's Collection
McGill Library's Chapbook Collection
The McGill Library's Chapbook Collection was made possible through a generous donation from the Harold Crabtree Foundation.
All images licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/deed.en_US. For information, please contact Rare Books and Special Collections, McGill University Library.
Link to this chapbook:
http://digital.library.mcgill.ca/chapbooks/fullrecord.php?ID=7368
Chapbook Identifier:
PN970_D4_D4_1857_no_9_DUP


text:
require 'spec_helper'

describe EY do
  it "provides EY errors" do
    expect(EY::Error).to be
  end
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Home > Posts tagged "tuesday"
The Trump administration on Tuesday released a list of Chinese goods that may be subjected to new tariffs. Here's what's on the list.Read more about this at cnbc.com.
President Donald Trump filed an annual financial disclosure report Tuesday, which was released on Wednesday.Read more about this at cnbc.com.
The Supreme Court says Justice Sonia Sotomayor will have shoulder replacement surgery after injuring herself in a fall at home.Read more about this at cnbc.com.
President Donald Trump is opening up his Florida estate to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday for a summit both men hope can smooth over differences on North Korea and trade.Read more about this at cnn.com.


In a few short weeks one of Toronto's best festivals will take over Fort York and unleash a stellar lineup. Death Cab for Cutie, James Bay and (for the nostalgic ones) Jimmy Eat World are just a few names drawing people in. But there are some amazing up and coming performers that should not be missed. Often times if the band is unknown, festival goers might not care as much if they arrive a little late for the set, or grab a beer during. Well, if you're unsure of when to opt for a break, make certain that you don't miss these names.
Wild Child make fans fall in love by telling them intimate stories in the form of songs. Vocalists Kelsey Wilson and Alexander Beggins beautifully confess their souls with homage to their Texas roots whittled into their unqiue campfire indie-pop.
Twistedly pop, The Belle Game find a way to create an energy that makes their music thrive. The Vancover-based band disappeared off the scene for a little while, but resurfaced with a shiny new sound, with the same elements that made them so unqiue before. Check out River, off of their debut album.
2016 marks the band's 20th anniversary of their self-titled debut album. They are a throwback to angsty grunge palatable for adults, kind of like if Death Cab for Cutie was a little more rock. The 2015 release of the album Pacific Milk is a masterpiece and a must hear.
Listening to Marlon William's is like taking a walk down an abandoned road. Walking forward, there is an impending feeling that something menacing is close behind. Capturing audiences with hunting stories with equal parts beauty and country, William's is a performer not to miss.
Familiar to TURF and Toronto The Sadies are a sound all of their own; bluegrass, blues, psychedelic, garage rock, all these and more can be found in the talents various albums. Their stage presence is enticingly unique and each show is never quite like the last.
Check out the full line up and schedule here.


text:
Ray Joslin, 1936-2013, In Memoriam
Journal entry, Friday, Sept. 20, 2013
To Ray at his Memorial
Today is Ray Joslin's memorial service, to be held at 2 p.m. at Christ Church in Greenwich, Connecticut, and I am to speak among four others who will give eulogies. What would I wish to say that he might hear in the ether, and in which those who also knew and loved him might find something to recognize and to hold?
I met Ray when I was a new reporter covering City Hall in Stockton and he was the face/voice of Continental Cablevision trying to comply with the city's rules for undergrounding cable. The economics, he testified, did not favor undergrounding costs in all the subdivisions. He had "run the numbers" and it simply could not work at the penetration rates they were seeing and expected as the city grew.
Wanting to be thorough (as the City Hall reporter) and get some kind of proof of his claim, I asked if I could see the numbers and he invited me to visit his office the following Saturday morning when he would be alone working. There he pulled out an immense accounting book, the original bound, paper spreadsheet acccounting book that might have existed in Charles Dickens' time. Written into every row and every column on both sides for some extraordinary numbers of pages were numbers – digits scripted in No. 2 pencil, each one touching on all four sides the tiny boxes they occupied – and I saw in that instant the meticulous, methodical, thorough, driven, compulsive, ambitious, determined, exceptionally bright, numbers-literate man that Ray was, then and throughout the 37 years in which I came to know him as a friend. (He left several years later to become the first head of Hearst Cablevision and built that division from 1980 onward.)
I came to appreciate
that these were just some of Ray's exceptional gifts and because they were so exceptional they would contribute to his great success in many areas and also to a kind of loneliness that can often accompany exceptionality. He had a vivid business imagination and a relentless analytical turn of mind. He was also a helluva lot of fun when he was in a good mood and let himself indulge his great curiosity and enthusiasm.
We once traveled to some desert-like place in Nevada together to speculate how a massive watering operation could transform it to productive land. We decided Stockton needed a state-of-the-art mini golf land and Ray "ran the numbers' and suggested a partnership operation to the owners of the Bay Area Peninsula miniature golf facility that had set us off on this notion. As I got the story later, they liked the idea and the numbers and decided to do it themselves on Pacific Avenue in Stockton, and we were never part of it, although we always enjoyed knowing it was our idea.
Ray loved ideas, but he also loved making them real and he was tireless in his energy. If it is true that our angels and demons live close together I will speculate that Ray's relentless activities expressed a desire to arrive someplace that was perhaps unreachable on this plane. In the meantime he cared deeply about the prospects of others, which I know that from my own relationship to him.
He once asked me to sing at his annual Christmas party at his home in Stockon – Silent Night, I think it was – and I remember being very moved that he asked. How did he know that I wanted to, but also was afraid, unprepared to face that particular crowd in that way? But he urged me to and I still can picture him watching me, smiling with a mix of paternal and fraternal support, taking pleasure in a moment that he created for me. I don't think I performed particularly well but the point was in the moment Ray was creating for someone else. He gave Ruth, Emily's mother, her first opportunity in cable marketing to put her Sarah Lawrence and Stanford writing skills to work and she turned that into a considerable career. He believed in hiring and promoting women before many others in corporate business took this view and he applied it more than many did. He believed in giving people a break, a start, support, a leg up.
He was immensely generous, not only to his children and friends – he helped with his Goddaughter's tuition in her first year of Haverford – but also gave mightily to Trinity College and, it seemed to me, anyplace he thought he could make a difference to others in ways that would expand or benefit their lives.
At my own personal level of "life with Ray" I can still see him at the bridge table at my house in Stockton. It was about 1977 and we were stoned and no one was exactly sure whose bid it was and we laughed as one did in those days, in that state, until we were weeping and begging each other to "shut up!" because our faces and sides hurt so. I see him navigating a houseboat on the south fork of the Mokelumne River in a rare few days of vacation. I was telling him that if I could quit smoking cgarettes then maybe so could he, and I would never bring it up again, although I did (and it made no difference.) I was sitting in a vast ballroom in New York City soon after coming back East in 1996 and Ray was being honored for all his contributions to film and media and the broadcast industry. He could run in any crowd, more than hold his own at the highest levels of business, fill every room he ever entered no matter how big, make big ideas come true and find ways to express his capabilities and good fortune with those less fortunate or less capable but whose prospects he wished to enhance for reasons he carried deep within him that might never be fully known to others, even or perhaps most to those closest to him.
I loved Ray – as a friend and man of great energy, integrity, commitment, determination, enthusiasm, curiosity, generosity, intelligence, humor – I could go on. He was always dapper as hell.
And he was also a flawed human man who struggled for intimacy and understanding and true comradeship in a world where not everyone behaves with the same interest in others in mind and where, frankly, the pressures and realities of business can make it a treacherous place, where the most deserving do not always get what they deserve and, unfortunately, the least deserving do not either.
I remember in 1993 trying to eulogize my father and confronting the sheer impossibility of capturing who he was or what he meant to me and that, thankfully, is the nature of knowing another person well over time. In the end you cannot say all there is or even all there is you might wish to say to try to capture all that you saw, and felt, and felt you knew.
Ray, I see your grin, I hear you laugh. I can feel you quicken to a great idea. I know you could imagine more than many and do what even fewer were able to do. I am grateful for your coming here, for your way of being in my life and I shall always be a friend and support to your family in any way I can.
God bless you. .
Posted by Eric Best on September 25, 2013 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Row Row Row Your Boat, Gently...
With uncertainty and complexity abounding, too much information flooding over most of us and the Global Happiness Index (GHI) challenged by much in modern life, it's worth noting that the best advice is often wrapped in a children's story or rhyme, which only endures to be repeated through generations and across cultures because it is quintessentially true.
Few can beat the little song we used to sing in rounds while on summer holiday before anyone held a hand-held anything to amuse them during those seemingly endless hours in the car. (And kids singing verses together don't squabble.)
This one has its origins in English nursery rhyme and American minstrel songs and supposedly first appeared in print in the U.S. in 1852.
Row row row
gently
down the stream
merrily merrily merrily merrily
but a dream.
Why should this have become such a repeated mantra for children? Full of advice for getting through life, it has inspired many to reflect on its deeper meanings. As a sailor who has often rowed back and forth between shore and a sailboat, I have had plenty of time to think about it - and enthusiastically sung it many times with my own children when they were small.
Rowing requires both hands, applied equally for the most part (and use your back and legs if you want to bring real strength to the action) and a sense of direction.
Balance! Don't pull too hard to one side unless you want to turn or you will soon be off course. Steady and rhythmical is almost always better than too much effort expended in bursts. Repetition and self control matter. Practice makes perfect.
Not someone else's. You're in it so you need to take care of it. It's the only one you've got. And it is uniquely yours - in what it's made of and contains and where it's going (or could go).You are on your own in most respects. So care for your boat like no other.
Of all the adverbs in the language to appear here, why this one? Think about the way you conduct yourself. How does it feel, and feel to others? Considerate, tender, gradual, refined, of good family - and the word hints etymologically "of the same clan." So row with a sense of belonging among others - congenially.
Yes, go with the flow, not fighting the current (although this may be necessary sometimes) but using the nature and direction of the stream to help you along. A stream is always moving and never exactly the same in any other place or at any other time. So keep paying attention to the stream wherever you find yourself in it.
"In a joyous manner" is one definition offered, but also consider that this adverb (any word that describes action) is repeated four times. No other word is given as much space or attention. So attitude matters a lot! And this attitude should live in the world of delight, pleasure, humor and joy.
Ah, life itself - everything around you that you see, feel, touch, smell, know, imagine, desire, fear, revile or revere...
is but a dream.
Images, ideas and emotions that seem to come upon us or that we may conceive spontaneously are all in us. This complex of perceptions are "real" but also "imagined" in the sense that they are the unique images we take from - or bring to - the world. That world is in us too. (Some might say it had its origins in us from birth, or even before that!)
Is life not as we imagine it to be?
Row row row your boat, gently, down the stream…
Merrily merrily merrily merrily - life is but a dream...
Posted by Eric Best on May 14, 2013 | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Four Principles to Guide a Life
Years ago I listened to noted columnist James Kilpatrick give a talk about writing. He said every good piece should follow the same formula:
"Let me take you by the hand and show you a place I know, which for seeing, will change you forever."
I would be delighted to think this is about to happen here and now for someone reading the words that follow!
In the autumn of 1996 I had just moved back East to New York City from California to work for Morgan Stanley after a 20-year career as a journalist and a half decade as a scenarios-to-strategy consultant -helping companies decide what they should do in light of the uncertain future.
It was a beautiful autumn day. I stepped off the curb in front of the public library, Fifth Avenue yawning full of traffic to the north and people bustling to work. I can still see all the details of that moment as clearly as on that day.
Four phrases appeared on the screen of my mind, as it were, and I stopped to write them down in a little notebook I always carried with me. (Retelling it now reminds me now of something that my scenario work has taught me - the most important idea can come from anyone at anytime, anyplace. But is anyone listening? And will they DO anything?)
The words were four separate thoughts in sequence, which have become principles in my business and I try hard to apply them in my life:
1. Clarify the Intention
2. Define the Sacred
3. Understand the Commitment
4. Act to Be
At one level - the words themselves, and the phrases, are simple enough. It is in their application that we can discover the value of them, as I have found in working with individuals and organizations over time.
Clarify the Intention.
It was Yogi Berra who allegedly said that if you do not know where you are going it is hard to know when you get there. We also learn that a journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step - but a step of what kind, and in which direction? Directly toward the target, or just "west," as in "Go west young man?"
What is it you want and need to do, which in the doing will bring you closer to something you deeply desire? This may be a big question about what you want to become in your life, or a smaller one about where you want to live, or it could be an enterprise issue of defining a strategy for the next year or three or five.
Often in exploring this question - and it is valuable for executives of organizations to apply scenario thinking here - we discover that the intentions we thought we had are not as important as the ones we have determined to clarify for ourselves from this moment on, and pursue in a new way, for reasons that become clear in the present work. Our perceptions of the future can - and should - influence present action.
We want to "become," but become what? What is your intention, that you most need to express because in so doing you will fulfill what is very if not most important to you? You can apply this to a day, a week, a year or a lifetime. It's up to you - your clear intention.
Define the Sacred.
I directed a re-visioning effort at Morgan Stanley in the late 1990s to clarify the intention, so to speak, for the "new company" that was formed by the Dean Witter-Morgan Stanley merger. One company was all about retail investors, the other was all about institutional finance. Two cultures. What were they to become as one company?
They had different intentions, different value systems. A lot has been written about what happened there, and since, and I won't explore that now. My research at the time revealed that a visionary company is six times more profitable that one without a vision, and no visionary company succeeds without core values, lived and expressed by the people doing the work. Top-down, bottom-up, side-to-side.
What do we mean by "core value?"
A core value is one of a few closely held convictions that you actively express and do not abandon just because things are hard or the audience is hostile. You deeply believe it and stick to it. And you can't fulfill your vision - your intention, if you like - without core values.
So what are the few things that you believe deeply and do not want to abandon no matter what challenges you face because these values are deeply a part of you?
Perhaps you know them, and live them. Perhaps you know them and don't live them. Perhaps you are not sure. They are worth thinking about, and worth expressing in your life if it is to become the life you want.
Understand the Commitment.
It is in some respects easy enough to declare an intention and lay claim to sacred beliefs, but the fulfillment of these requires resources - time, effort, expertise - and an understanding not only of
your course of action but of all the known elements required to "get there."
It is not useful to declare an intention to be fit, and a belief in a healthy lifestyle, if you are not willing to do - and not do - the things required. We can all think of things we say we want to do but are unwilling seriously to undertake because of the commitment required.
Before I went sailing alone in the ocean for the first time, I realized how much I had to learn, how much preparation the boat and I both required, and how the effort to prepare us would draw not only on all the
resources that I had but required that I add more abilities and understanding to my effort before it would become credible - or even safe - to undertake.
As an old sailor warned me then, "The sea lies in wait for the unwary, but she stalks the reckless." It can be reckless to set off on a journey for which you are truly unprepared.
Act to Be.
Those of you who studied French philosophy might recognize this as the existential challenge. I heard it first clearly from a somewhat infamous land developer I interviewed in Hawaii after I arrived there
after sailing in alone from San Francisco.
His name was David Murdock. He was a controversial figure who had overcome considerable family tragedy as a young man and now was building hotels on Lanai amid objections that he was ruining one way of life in favor of another. I was interviewing him for a business story for the San Francisco Examiner for whom I worked then and he made a case for action that stuck with me.
"It's not bad to have an ego," Murdock said, "It's bad to have no ego. You understand this because you identified something you wanted and needed to do and you did it. You sailed alone in the ocean for 25 days to get here, and you got here, and now it is part of you forever. That is the lesson. Act to be."
As it happened this decision I had made to sail alone to Hawaii and back at that moment in my life changed the course of it. It led me away from newspaper writing, started me on a book that took me 20 years to finish and also into scenario thinking as an business-like approach to uncertainty. This turned out to be a fascinating way to use possible stories about the future to change the story of the present – how you understand it and how you act on the possibilities before you.
Scenario thinking, which was a perfect practice in many ways for a journalist - created an unexpected career that brought me to Morgan Stanley for one of the most extraordinary decades on Wall Street, and finally - or so far – here. As a consultant and writer and sometimes speaker – and father of three from two prior marriages - I am still trying to live certain ideas in my life to become the person I had in mind.
Or perhaps I should say, "have in mind" because intention is something we are expressing now, whether we are doing so clearly and intentionally or not. We are becoming as we behave. Intention is our guide, a compass of our own design. Perhaps if you accept this metaphor you should examine what seems to attract you most essentially.
These four principles are easy enough to remember and say aloud but challenging to apply. They are valuable insofar as you make them about you and your life, day-to-day, week- to-week, personally and professionally:
Clarify the Intention. Define the Sacred. Understand the Commitment. Act to Be.
It is up to you.
Posted by Eric Best on January 05, 2013 | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)
Unsettled World Hints at Extremes to Come
Syzygeist, the name for this blog, is a made-up word to suggest sudden convergences that you should think about and perhaps act upon. (Look up syzygy for the root idea and think also zeitgeist).
Now after a hiatus from this space to undertake two personal projects - racing my 47-foot ketch Feo from Newport, Rhode Island to Bermuda with my three children, and buying-to-renovate a wreck of a cabin in the woods near NYC - I return to contemplate the world of troubled Europe, politically and economically stalled US and numerous other uncertainties that could change the game for businesses and individuals in short order, and to which various corporate clients (and others) wish to apply their attention.
What to do? If it is a time for "flight to safety," where is safety? (Presumably a house in the woods is one answer, or part of one, but only in extremis.)
Yesterday a client with deep experience in global finance dismissed US Treasuries as any longer a safe haven, calling them instead a crowded trade that is bound to reverse, and reverse violently when the time comes. Interest rates will not stay low forever. What then?
This market is about convergences - of conditions, beliefs, behaviors - and also about instability, or the tendency of things not to stay the same, perhaps radically. Racing to Bermuda provided real examples, with the lead boat smashing the record by 15 hours over the 635-mile course to finish in just 39 hours. Why? A rare and persistently powerful northeasterly gave the swiftest boats perfect conditions for record sailing and we found ourselves for 24 hours in the fastest conditions of our lives to date.
Once in Bermuda, the fleet found a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Those of us needing to return with our boats to US shores had to ponder whether this depression would defy history and come across Florida into the Atlantic, or do what all the prevailing weather models suggested it would do, which was to move north into Texas to be dissipated there.
As it happened, "Debbie" came across Florida - given only a 10 percent chance or less - and did little damage. More to the point it reflected unsettled conditions in weather these days - a jet stream that is behaving uncharacteristically, an Atlantic high pressure system that has not taken its usual position - resulting in more surprise storms than usual, more violence in local weather.
Call it unsettled.
I draw the parallel here between weather and political-economic conditions affecting business and our daily lives. Unsettled is the key word.
We have not previously been in a world where major structural elements have converged as they are now - a troubled and fiscally/politically challenged Europe with rising unemployment; China as the engine of emerging markets facing a possible hard landing; the UK and US both slowing down with apparently limited growth prospects; and, in the case of the US, a political stalement as structural fiscal problems worsen. Will the choice of the next US president be as important as whether the collective political or domestic will addresses the real problems? And will it? Consider the number of other countries where political transitions are imminent, and problems rising.
The implication of unsettled conditions in sailing is often to stay in port or get to a safe anchorage. In our case we believed the weather models and we departed, reasonably certain that Debbie would not catch up to us. And she did not.
Instead, on the second day out, a spontaneous (unforeseen by the "experts") Force 8 gale - winds of 35-42 and waves above 20 feet - set upon us for 20 hours. It had not been part of anyone's model-prediction. Fortunately, our steel ketch is designed for the roughest seas and the crew was able. But the lesson was clear, even if the implications were not entirely so.
When things are unsettled you must be prepared not only for what the models say might happen, but also for what they do not say at all. Unprecedented also implies unforeseeable. Powerful forces converging in new and unexpected ways can create extreme conditions - and you had best be ready for them.
Posted by Eric Best on August 08, 2012 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Act to be!
James Holding is a 37-year-old British marine biologist who, in his own words, "saw the race on the news and couldn't believe it was possible."
I was unable to meet James personally under the circumstances
to ask how he was faring after the ninth and 6,000-mile leg across the Pacific from China to Oakland, where the "Clipper Round The World" http://www.clipperroundtheworld.com/index.php sailing fleet was now about to depart on its 10th leg to Panama, another 3,000 miles south. The 10 specially designed masthead cutters will then begin their last big push with a penultimate stop in New York en route to the UK where the race originated nearly a year ago.
In Oakland at the StrictlySail Pacific Boat Show to give my seminar "Getting Out There Alone," I was about to talk about the special experience of solo sailing, the beauties of the ocean and the challenges of making one's dream into reality. My own days at sea had changed the course of my life in ways I was still coming to appreciate. Some of these apply to anyone wishing to turn their own deeply felt desires into a specific plan of action, as these sailors were all doing.
The crew of the boat "New York" posed for a photo
with at least one crewmember's parents looking on. They had journeyed all the way from southern England to greet their daughter, Elizabeth Allan, for whom this was a first sailing experience. And what an experience! She would be one of 14 women on a crew that included 44 individuals from varied walks of life - eldest 72, youngest 22 - and an average age of 46.
The 68-foot matched racing sloops are operated for profit under the chairmanship of renowned solo circumnavigator Robin Knox Johnson. They host crews of 18 aboard to give people a chance in global match racing to live the dream of sailing around the world. James was just one of hundreds who saw the opening and took it. (How many considered it but did not?)
James' father scanned the crews as they prepared to disembark from Jack London Square April 14 under clear skies and a briskly rising northwesterly breeze, which would give them fast initial sailing south. He explained that James had suffered a back injury on the race into Australia but fought to get back aboard in China to continue the trip, toward which he had devoted nearly three years of his life and about 50,000 English pounds.
The 40,000-mile yacht race is not for the faint-hearted. A few days earlier, about 400 miles off the coast, a rogue wave estimated at 60-feet tall had rolled and damaged one of the fleet during the night and sent two crew members – airlifted off the disabled craft - to hospital.
Speaking of pounds – the other kind – one crew member on Qingdao reported a weight loss of about four stone so far, or roughly 70 pounds, although it was evident in scanning the crews that despite burning 5,000 calories-a-day at sea some had either gained weight or lost precious little along the way.
Food, one of the race spokesmen declared to the public gathering, becomes a subject of fascination if not obsession at sea. Everyone aboard will serve as cook and bottle-washer in an intensely shared and inter-dependent experience. Taking turns in the galley and cleaning up the boat teaches a mutually respectful behavior in which crewmembers realize that however they behave, "they will get their own back." And, noted one of the organizers, the ocean has a way of bringing out important truths because "you learn a lot more about yourself when times are tough than you do when times are good."
"Act to be!" would be my central theme, an exhortation first uttered to me by an interested observer after I arrived in Honolulu, where I had docked for repairs after a 25-day passage. Diligent planning (I thought) had not prepared me for the truly unexpected – it never can – and I had learned some crucial things about my own life and life in general. As you behave, so you become. The sea brings out certain truths, however difficult they might be.
Many consider embarking on sailing journeys – or other life initiatives – but are stymied by conditions that seem to obstruct them. The truth is that if you want rare or possibly life-changing experiences you must make your way from imaginings to intention and then action. And you may be far more ready than you think.
It is axiomatic that you know more today than at any prior time in your life. It follows therefore that you are now as capable as you have ever been.
What many people fail to appreciate of themselves is that whenever they have been clear about their intention and wholly committed, they have nearly always accomplished what they set out to do. (Or they have learned something valuable that they did not anticipate but could only have learned by 'going out there.')
Moreover, as my own experience would attest, the universe has a way of providing what is needed – in ideas, people and resources – to those who demonstrate their passionate and personal commitment to a course of action. While fear may be the most powerful human emotion, and fear of the unknown the most influential of our fears, we have the capacity to learn as we go. Life is a path that you beat as you walk it. Or sail it.
Those were to be my core messages. Years ago I had bought an ocean-going boat with a famous pedigree. Its original sister ship excelled in the first single-handed round-the-world race in 1968 under the hand of French soloist Bernard Moitessier – which suggested it might safely take me anywhere I might wish to sail. And that had been true. My sail from San Francisco to Hawaii and back aboard Feo, my 47-foot ketch, enabled me to confront difficult elements in my life and changed my course from journalist to corporate strategist to author and executive coach. And she has given my three children rare opportunities afforded by life on the water and the lessons of boat handling.
As I now stood among proud parents and well-wishers watching the "Clipper" fleet prepare to leave, I felt inspired by the initiative and courage in the crews, many of whom - like James Holding - had made their own leaps of faith to act on internal inspiration to go where so few had gone before.
James' father confided that more people have climbed Mount Everest than have ever sailed around the world. I held that thought as Derry-Londonderry, festooned with streamers flying, slipped her lines and backed away from the dock, just one 68-foot ship of dreams crewed by people "acting to be" in ways that would change them forever.
Posted by Eric Best on April 17, 2012 | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Europe Scenarios - The Zone of (Negative) Expectation
In our now traditional pre-Christmas convocation of former and present Morgan Stanley bankers held last Friday at the Asia Society, we applied scenario-thinking to the challenges of Europe and the world. The result wasn't pretty.
The two most important uncertainties for markets and economies reduced to two - global growth and the outcome of Europe's financial and fiscal crisis. (Middle East unrest, North Korea, Iran, US elections and social reactions are not ignored here but play into these larger uncertainties.)
Plot these two major uncertainties as axes and you have a matrix with positive growth and positive European restructuring in the upper right quadrant, and a sharply declining world (slow/small to negative growth and European de-structuring) to the lower left. The challenge is to develop these "four worlds" as plausible, then ask how they influence your intuitions about what may occur, and how to best prepare.
Throughout the afternoon's discussion, the lower left emerged as our "zone of expectation," in which global growth is flat to down, and Europe cannot get out of its own way, slipping further into recession (or worse, in some countries) while banks and sovereigns continue to weaken. The ugly realities of European banks - highly levered and full of sovereign risk - continue to come home to roost, with knock-on effects in China and US trade, and a possible meltdown in the derivatives market.
In the negative scenario, Germany continues to refuse the "print money" option through the ECB, which one analyst in the room described as "Europe's bad bank." The EFSF is revealed as a non-solution to the problem as the debts cannot be paid either by the sovereigns nor any combination of ECB-IMF or external sources. If you speak fluent banker-ese, think of the EFSF (so described by one expert), as "a two-tranche CDO with the key difference that the "guarantors" of the structure could "opt out" of the structure and become "obligors," modifying the subordination structure and adding to the credit risk."
What that means simply is that 'I was in the deal as a guarantor, then I decided to leave and now I am guaranteed by those left behind.' Huh? (Yes, it's that bad.)
Among other ideas that surfaced to consider, these from Asia experts, is that China is not interested in saving Europe from itself as China has too many challenges of its own (and has been managing all of them successfully so far.)
Clearly possible is a world in which Europe really begins to unravel in 2012, when its banks have to raise 573,613 Billion Euros (!!). Assuming Europe's sovereign debt maturities are refinanced, they need collectively to raise 1.073 TRillion Euros, with Italy and France needing just under 500 Billion of those. For those unversed in capital markets, these are giant, daunting numbers. Despite talks of "recapitalizing" European banks, the numbers there do not add up in many cases, as numerous banks are beyond help (Dexia and Monte Dei Paschi being examples.)
The darkest pronouncement on the economic scene came from one European banker who arrived late to declare, "Depression! That's where we're headed, and the Germans are leading us there."
He went on to elaborate that he believes Germany under Merkel will fight the idea of monetization (some form of extensive bond-buying and money-creation via the ECB) and urge for liquidation, a policy error in his view that could victimize much of Europe, and in the worst case spill over to the rest of the world.
As with all scenario deliberations, the insights and "aha's!" varied for participants, who would draw their own conclusions about what actions seem prudent and necessary for them in the face of these uncertainties. It was hard to see how Europe in the near or medium term could overcome the the financial realities or politics as demonstrated so far. How could Europe find an answer without further volatility and declines?
The only plausible positive scenario, one old hand suggested, was a world that will go sideways (as Europe goes down) for another 5-6 years, and then the US (somehow magically resolving its own fiscal crisis) would come out the other side advantaged (presumably by its diversity, dynamism and willingness/capability to take action.) Europe as a region would simply become less relevant in a more globalized world.
Well, that's a scenario to consider, and perhaps it smacks of local bias. In any event, a lot has to be addressed in Europe and the US between here and there, and the numbers are not forgiving.
In the near term, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Posted by Eric Best on December 20, 2011 | Permalink | Comments (36) | TrackBack (0)
Listen to the (Not Very Honorable) John Corzine!!
"I never intended anyone at MF Global to misuse customer funds."
The gist of MF Global CEO John Corzine's testimony is "deny, deny, deny" before the Senate Committee today. It bears watching for a lesson in elusive and dodgy answers to sometimes fuzzy questions.
Oh, and "I do not know where the (missing $1.2 billion?) money is," as Corzine and his COO Bradley Abelow and CFO Henri Steenkamp uttered in sequential chorus - three monkeys who apparently saw no evil, heard no evil and are speaking no - evil? Well, no sense, certainly, and perhaps little truth. To suggest that they are outright lying would not seem to stretch the apparent facts.
What I want the senators to ask is:
What exactly were you getting paid for, Mr. Corzine, if not to oversee the proper functioning of your firm?
What form would this oversight take in a firm whose sole purpose is to invest money - your own and others - making various long and short trades in various securities to (hopefully) make more money?
You might as the CEO be expected to know at any given moment how much money your firm had, how much you were putting at risk and whether you were ahead or behind. Whether your clients were winning or losing would be among the most important facts for you to have at any given moment under any market conditions. And keeping funds appropriately separate would be among your most important daily operational functions.
In a business where the law specifically prohibits the commingling of client with proprietary funds, whether you were misusing client funds - or how exactly you know that you are NOT misusing client funds - would appear to be in the top three facts the CEO is paid to know and to which his human and technology systems should be dedicated.
This testimony from Corzine & Co is reminiscent of an old New Yorker cartoon, which shows a young adolescent staring at a pile of something dark on his plate and saying, apparently to parents who want him to eat his vegetables, "I say it's spinach and I say the hell with it."
In this case it is not spinach, but something worse. Corzine should be - like Sandusky at Penn State - at least under house arrest and perhaps a $5 million bond until it can be proven that his firm - still unable to "find the funds" - did not steal the money and defraud his clients. This is case where missing money should mean the man has to prove his innocence.
Posted by Eric Best on December 13, 2011 | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Joe Paterno, Greece and OWS
What do Joe Paterno's firing, the state of things in Greece and Occupy Wall Street have in common?
Paterno (in whose name we find the Latin word for "father") failed to respond adequately to personal corruption in his immediate environment. More than that, it was taking place within his specific area of direct responsibility. In the family, you might say. (If you are reacting in a way to defend Paterno, please read the Grand Jury report before making any final judgment on his innocence here.)
Greece has in not so recent years fallen into a state of personal and political corruption best characterized by the failure of a tax and judicial system that holds almost no one accountable for failure to pay, flagrant lying, misrepresentation and virtually all other known forms of evasion. Basically the country is crawling with cheats who are seeking their own advantage and colluding in the advantage-taking of others by turning a blind eye. Why anyone would buy a Greece-backed bond at any interest rate is beyond me - unless you think the Germans will make it good.
Greece has no reliable public book-keeping system nor a functional tax regime nor mechanisms (or will) to enforce laws, which are therefore routinely ignored. For more color and detail here read Michael Lewis' latest book "Boomerang," in which he devotes a very entertaining chapter to the Greece he found when he visited recently. He reports that his sensibility as a journalist seeking illustrative anecdotes was dulled by the sheer repetition of one horrifying example after another.
Occupy Wall Street (or Oakland or Denver or San Francisco or any of the other cities expressing inchoate outrage) is a movement against corruption of these types - the failure of people in high places to do the right thing when it is obvious what needs to be done, or failing to establish and enforce a set of reasonable rules and mechanisms to protect against the darker side of human nature.
That side of human nature is the self-gratification-seeking side that believes the self comes first, and anyone who doesn't play that way is a fool.
At the most grotesque level we have a coach at Penn State sexually exploiting boys as young as 10 years old and not being held accountable by people in a position to intervene once the behavior was known. This story you can find in the Grand Jury report, which should make any reasonable person furious.
At the cultural or state/social level of Greece, we have a kind of moral rot in which citizens of all kinds exploit a system designed by citizens to be exploited. Everyone is in on it, and anyone trying to address it is punished, frozen out, vilified - maybe even scared into shutting up.
Occupy Wall Street and its associated movements are propelled in part by a reaction against corruption at the top, the self-seeking and exploitive behaviors that require collaboration among the elite, but also require participation among those who want to get on or stay on the gravy train, and who don't want to upset their own apple cart (Pardon the mixed food metaphor here.) Congress is fueled by money that pays them to support laws that are not good for the whole but serve the campaign-contributing part.
Years ago at a Harvard seminar I listened to a high-level lawyer experienced in business and government who was asked what was the most important challenge or weakness in the United States? At the time (1983) the country was coming out of 1970s stagflation and worried about the rise of Japan.
His answer was unexpected, at least by me.
"Intellectual dishonesty," he said, "From the highest levels on down." He went on to say that this weakness was often accompanied by collusion and moral cowardice.
Please count me among those who believe Joe Paterno absolutely deserved to be fired, notwithstanding his years of service on the football field and being beloved by many. He failed to uphold the father's first duty - to protect his children - and also to clean house when it was evident that rot had set in. And we might call this rot of the very first order because it violated every child's right to feel safe - and be kept safe - from adults who would exploit them.
Greece will not easily be able to un-corrupt itself because the social/political rot is too pervasive, deep and broad. The country is feeding at the trough of its own making and they have run out of slops.
The corruptions that have insinuated themselves into the US system may be in some ways as difficult to address, as we try to undo some of the self-dealing practices in the financial service and other big-money regulated industries. Let's start by bringing back the Glass Steagall Act, which should never have been repealed. Those in authority knew that well well enough.
To take another example we should also start undoing some of the most extreme retirement packages granted US Senators or other public servants (check your local police retirement package for some scary examples), just as Greece will have to address its "retire-at-50" program. Oh, and all those Californians enjoying absurd property taxes made possible by Proposition 13 will have to give some of that up.
It might seem overwhelming to tackle the breadth and depth of corruptions of these kinds because they take so many forms. So just look around for simple examples close to home, stand up for what you think is right and speak against what you know is wrong.
That might be called government by the people. It should occupy us.
Posted by Eric Best on November 11, 2011 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Acting Amid Europe's Uncertainties
Having conducted three recent scenario sessions (in Switzerland and Germany) in the last month to consider the current European debt crisis, I find most notable that the range of futures conceived by deeply experienced European and global business people all turned up bleak in the near to medium term.
It is rare not to imagine in any thorough set of scenarios one that is relatively positive. The theory and the practice of scenario thinking suggest that there should be an upside where the most important uncertainties resolve in a constructive and positive fashion, even in ways that will surprise you.
In this case, however, positive scenario construction was frustrated by some obvious obstacles and the negatives seem to logically feed on themselves.
Could you imagine European leadership converging to solve the problem in time? Could you see a super financial institution (IMF or ECB on steroids) emerging in time with the relevant power and legal frameworks in place to satisfy the investing world?
If the ECB really could "print money," would that solve the problem?
Could you imagine that the Greek populace would move quickly to accept austerity and then change entrenched cultural and political behaviors to deliver on it? Would a populace vote for a decade of lower living standards to remedy past excesses (a question the US may have to face at some point)?
As uncertainties mount and assets continue to flee the danger zone, can you imagine a European recession being avoided? Would the south be much worse off than the north, or would all suffer equally together?
These were some of the issues that made a near-term positive outcome hard to construct. And negative implications are then difficult to explain away. If Greece cannot be "saved," then what about Italy? Would Berlusconi get out ofthe way in time, or fashion a solution that was not in his own (problematic) image?
As some banks become more troubled, will they all be rescued or will some be allowed to fail? (Not Dexia, apparently.) What would be the results of that, either way?
Little wonder that markets remain roiled as these questions continue to rankle. Of real significance for the client involved was the sense of urgency around asset decisions to be taken in the Euro-zone regarding real estate and other business interests. These decisions are of course proprietary but the overarching implication was to act sooner than later and not in the vain hope of a magic bullet. Kicking the can down the road stops working when you run out of road, and Europe is already there.
One source of insight and perhaps comfort is that in Japan in 1997 - a similar strategic moment in a country's history where internal reform was required that the country could not actually manage - a scenario process for Morgan Stanley revealed a similar dilemma. It was not in the nature of the country to get out of its own way and markets would not be kind.
It turned out that money could be made in the anticipated "bad scenario" if the firm developed a robust approach to it and followed through on it. (They did, and saved themselves from a costly ($1.2B) acquisition that a competitor dove into, much to its later chagrin.)
Taking action at such points in time requires nerve in the face of uncertainty, conviction about the course to set and resolution to follow it. We shall see as Europe's sovereign debt crisis continues to play out whether the early pessimists fare better than those who are still hoping for a solution to emerge and who continue to believe Europe can get there from here.
Uncertainty continues to dominate the news but the need to act resolutely remains.
Moving Against Massive Mis-Allocators
In 1983 I took a fellowship year as the journalist I was then to address my own ignorance about economics, both the theory and the practice of the "dismal science." I thought I would understand capital allocation (what do you do with the money you have?) by studying banks.
Prof. Bill White, who taught at the Harvard Business School and had written their textbook on capital markets, disabused me of the notion that banks themselves allocate capital.
"No,' he explained, "Capital is allocated through a host of other agents and agencies - consumers, businesses, governments, military spending policy, waging war, etc."
Years later came the crash of 2008. With it dawned the realization that banks - mostly investment banks, allowed by Congress to do what the post-depression Glass Steagall Act had forbidden them to do - had engineered the single largest mis-allocation of capital in human history. Let's use the number $2 Trillion. True, others were involved, but it could not have been accomplished without banks acting outside the public interest for the private gain of the few.
Now the United States stands on the brink of collapsing its own economy in the face of global competition, unsustainable domestic and public debt and with a leadership paralyzed by ideological conflict. Little wonder that a movement called "Occupy Wall Street" has sprung up and spread as people who lost life savings, homes and the prospect of continued employment - or getting their first job in an activity worthy of human energy - have sought to express their discontent.
Private economist Andy Xie, based in Shanghai, has written about the "grim statistics":
- nearly 10per cent of US households have lost homes to foreclosure since 2008;
- 28 per cent of homeowners with mortgages have negative equity;
- 25 million people who want to work are unemployed or underemployed;
- real median household income has fallen by 10 per cent since 2007.
-the average premium for the household of employer-sponsored health insurance has risen by 9 per cent this year - about 28 per cent of median household income.
I am currently running a scenario exercise in Germany for a European-based global company that wants to better understand the risks and potential reverberations of the sovereign debt crisis. What has emerged in two days is a strong view that recovery is NOT just around the corner, and the rest of the world is likely to be involved in the recession or deflation or even depression that could unfold. All this because governments have borrowed too much, consumers have overspent and banks have been more than willing to play and to promote the debt game, often through sophisticated financial engineering that is arguably unproductive, and possibly counterproductive in the extreme.
An economist here has laid out the alternative policy responses to massive indebtedness, and what history suggests. Germany tried to money-print its way out of debt in the 30s and hyperinflation ensued. The US followed an Austrian model and tried to let the "bad companies" fail so the "good companies" could be rewarded, but the failure of too many "bad" companies led to depression. Since 1990, Japan has pursued a "buying time" model in which the can is kicked down the road (as long as there is road) by government support. Japan, unlike the US, began its crisis with massive domestic savings (12 trillion yen at the time). Its economy languishes now in part because institutions that should fail are not allowed to.
President Obama has unveiled a tax-funded plan for infrastructure maintenance (necessary roads, bridges, school) as an economic stimulus that leaves something productive in its wake. Funded by taxes rather than debt, such efforts are shown historically to contribute a dollar to the economy for every dollar spent, and they do not leave higher levels of debt in their wake. (It should not require much economic training to understand that debt cannot be solved simply by more debt.)
It appears the increasingly rapid Republican ideologues, who would rather damage Obama than address the economic problems now, may get their way. This will be another form of "misallocating capital" because it will mean we are doing nothing to address our crisis except failing to act in one of the few ways that history and economic theory/practice suggest we should.
I so fondly remember the late Professor White, a brilliant and kindly man who devoted his life to teaching students about how capital can and should work - only to learn that it is easily mismanaged by the relatively few humans who are in a position to allocate it intelligently - for the good of the many.
Posted by Eric Best on October 19, 2011 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)


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        Guido.io

        Posts

        Projects

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Projects

See also my
          GitHub profile

          ⚒ This page does not list all my projects, check out my Github profile for a more complete list.

💻 Applications and Libraries

Magic Login

          E-mail verification and passwordless login SaaS

              Magic Login is a transactional e-mail service with a simple API that has built-in support for authentication through e-mail.

              ⚙ Typescript, Cloudflare Workers, AWS, lit-html |
              website

Starboard

          In-browser literal notebooks

              Jupyter Notebooks for the web, my main project right now (late 2020).

              ⚙ Typescript, Go, Postgres, lit-html, Github Actions |
              website | open source

Sunder

          A minimalist, unopinionated framework for Cloudflare Workers

              A web framework for ServiceWorker environments, similar to Koa.

              ⚙ Typescript, Cloudflare Workers, Jest |
              website | documentation

Friendly Captcha

          Proof of work based CAPTCHAs that are accessible, user and privacy friendly

             A proof of work based alternative to ReCAPTCHA/hCAPTCHA that has a better tradeoff for users. Now incorporated as a small German business (GmbH).

              ⚙ Assemblyscript (WebAssembly), Typescript, Cloudflare Workers, Github Actions |
              website

Zarr.js

          Zarr that runs in the browser, Node and Deno.

             Zarr is a python library for chunked large multi-dimensional datasets. This library is a library that allows one to interact with these large datasets in the browser.

              This was a particulary large undertaking because the browser (javascript) does not ship with any good support for multidimensional arrays or utilities like slicing, that all had to be implemented from scratch.

              ⚙ Typescript, Github Actions
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              github repository
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nn-transfer

          Neural Network weight transfer -
              Pytorch <> Keras

              Utilities for converting PyTorch models to Keras and the other way around. More specifically, it allows you to copy the weights from a PyTorch model to an identical model in Keras and vice-versa.

              I created this tool out of my own need, and since open sourcing it it has been starred over a hundred times on GitHub.

              It is unique in the way it works from other tools, as it does not infer the model structure itself. That is where every other tool has the most difficulty (and often fails). In this tool instead you define the same model architecture yourself.

              ⚙ Pytorch, Keras, travic-ci |
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🏆 Hackathons

LI Hackathon (September 2017)

          Legal Search Innovation Hackathon -
              Winning team - €5000 prize

              Armed with access to a large corpus of hundreds of thousands of legal documents, the Legal Intelligence API, and the goal to innovate in search of legal documents we created Leegle (Legal Google).

                  Leegle is an in-browser graph based legal document explorer, where documents are linked
                  by common court cases and law references. The tool seamlessly integrated with the
                  existing Legal Intelligence search engine using a simple Chrome browser plugin.

              ⚙ Vue.js, vis.js, Flask, Neo4j, Solr, Pandas |
              Project page
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              Hackathon homepage (Dutch)

AIVD Hackathon (March 2017)

          Dutch Intelligence Service Hackathon -
              2nd place

              The objective of this 24 hour hackathon was to create anything that could be of value to the Dutch intelligence service. With this vague problem statement, we talked to various stakeholders, and identified that a big part of preventing extremism is identifying those that may develop extremist views.

          We created TerrorFlow, a tool for automatically detecting individuals that are at risk of turning to extremism. This was done by identifying various objects in images and videos (e.g. burning flags, AK-47s) posted publicly on Instagram and Youtube, the results of which could be viewed in an in-browser tool.

              ⚙ Keras, Vue.js, Flask, Ansible, AWS EC2 |
              Project page
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              Video

🏅 Kaggle Competitions

National Data Science Bowl 2017

          Kaggle Machine Learning competition -
              Top Kernel Winner - $5000 prize

                  Wrote the most popular Kaggle kernel in the biggest yearly machine learning competi-
                  tion. This kernel described how to preprocess and segment lungs in CT images. To this
                  day it is still the most upvoted kernel of any Kaggle competition with prize money.

              ⚙ NumPy, DICOM.js, scipy, matplotlib, pandas |
              Kernel link
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              Competition homepage

Ultrasound Nerve Segmentation (August 2016)

          Kaggle Machine Learning competition -
              9th place (top 1%)

                  Tackled the problem of identifying nerve structures in ultrasound images using a hybrid
                  approach using classical computer vision features (SIFT) and an adapted version of the
                  fully convolutional network Unet architecture.

              ⚙ NumPy, Theano, Lasagne |
              Competition homepage

Diabetic Retinopathy Detection (July 2016)

          Kaggle Machine Learning competition -
              11th place (top 2%)

                  Applied a convolutional neural network approach to automatically diagnose diabetic
                  retinopathy, which is the leading cause of blindness in the US, from retina pictures.
                  Trained on GPUs on a large cluster, achieving better than human expert performance.

              ⚙ NumPy, Theano, Lasagne |
              Project homepage
              |
              Competition homepage

National Data Science Bowl 2016

          Kaggle Machine Learning competition -
              68th place (top 7%)

                  Developed a deep learning method for automatically classifying plankton from low res-
olution black and white images. Also helped develop a method for unsupervised feature
extraction based on kNN clusters of image patches, which performed worse.

              ⚙ NumPy, Theano, Lasagne, Scikit-learn, nolearn |
              Project homepage
              |
              Competition homepage


This might work on the basis of spinozas metaphysics, where my existence is gods existence, but gods knowledge far transcends mine. Nor would it be too surprising if kant was right about his own ancestry among them. Concerted action by all concerned is necessary in the future for research in india to reach the quality and recognition it deserves.
And it is a low blow to use the kantian term, island universe, for the very theory, that the milky way is the only galaxy, that kant was contradicting. His forehead, formed for thinking, was the seat of indestructible serenity and peace, the most thought-filled speech flowed from his lips, meriment and wit and humor were at his command, and his lecturing was discourse at its most entertaining. The contrary of every matter of fact is still possible because it can never imply a contradiction, and is conceived by the mind with the same facility and distinctness, as if ever so conformable to reality.
Indeed, kants moral observations in his four humor seem more sensible, realistic, and humane than the rigor of the categorical imperative. Acm advanced member grades require varying degrees of experience and accomplishment. And there were also terribly important features of things-in-themselves that we have some notion about and that are of fundamental importance to human life, not just morality but what he called the three ideas of reason god, freedom, and immortality.
If you think you can contribute to this effort, please prepare a short 1-page abstract on your topic along with pointers to sources that can provide more details. In precisely the spirit with which he examined leibniz, wolff, baumgarten, and hume and purused the natural laws of the physicists kepler and newton, he took up those works of rousseau which were then appearing, , just as he did every natural discovery known to him, evaluated them and always came back to unprejudiced knowledge of nature and the moral worth of mankind. Then, when all the rationalists, like , appealed to self-evidence and all came up with radically different theories, it should have become clear that this was not a good enough procedure to adjudicate the conflicting claims.
Pyrrho returned with a principle echoing the fourfold negation of buddhist philosophy. With this kind of variable star, their period of variation is proportional to their absolute brightness. Nevertheless, kants theory does all sorts of things that seem appropriate for a non-reductionistic philosophical system and that later philosophy has had trouble doing appearances, things appearing), for a sphere for science that was distinct and separate from anything that would relate to morality or religion.
Nevertheless, since anything is god, god is part of my experience after all. However kant can explain the truth of non-empirical synthetic propositions, i. But something that kant overlooks is the platonic overtone of his own famous statement. Acm-w supports, celebrates, and advocates internationally for the full engagement of women in all aspects of the computing field, providing a wide range of programs and services to acm members and working in the larger community to advance the contributions of technical women. It was the empiricists who started demanding certificates of authenticity, since they wanted to trace all ideas back to experience.
Dissertation On First Principles Of Government We might even wonder if the grim anaesthesia and moralism of scottish calvinism is not what we find in kants thought and sentiments. Nevertheless, kant had already made a name for himself with his often original ideas in and with his growing critique of the widely accepted, at least in germany, thought of (e. Thus, if language consists of words but not abstract meanings, then we dont have to worry about one meaning containing another, Instead. Operations Management Dissertation Topics-FREE, excellent Master & Bachelor dissertation topics will help you get started with your proposal or dissertation. There is not a true kantian intellectual intuition unless the production of a representation will also create an externally existing object. Thus, wittgenstein sees all reality as created by particular languages, even though one might think this would imply that truths about language would be created by particular languages also, However, the matter was not settled by the debate but by (1889-1953) in 1923-1924, using the recently completed mount wilson 100 inch telescope, in the san gabriel mountains above pasadena.
Candidates with phd degree completed from cscse or allied disciplines are eligible. If the mind is the passive recipient of perception, and perception is conscious (a presence of an idea in the mind, according to locke), then, again, the mind would be perpetually conscious. But, if 7 5 12 could be derived directly from logic, without substantive axioms like in geometry, then its analytic nature would be certain. This is a strong argument and, decisive or not, is heuristically of great value, especially when we untangle it from the earlier views of perception in the. A contradiction means something of the form a and not-a.
Kants notion that reason connects us directly to things-in-themselves does not allow for speculative metaphysics as practiced by the rationalists because reason alone does not determine any positive content of knowledge (thoughts without content are empty intuitions without concepts are blind, a 51). The supreme rational expression of this is the postulates of practical reason, the ideas of god, freedom, and immortality which, to kant, are required as conditions of the moral law. Part of this was due to the (1764), which shows a very different kind of kant, as thinker and writer, than what becomes familiar in the later works. Either such move, however, cannot escape the original embarrassments of rationalism, or avoid the devastation inflicted by the criticisms made by hume and kant. Once the existence of consciousness is conceded (which not everyone, e.
Examples of making a significant impact on the society through the use of computing should be of interest to the global audience. Thus, the transcendental logic in the is divided into the transcendental analytic and the transcendental dialectic. Kant explains the drift in meaning of principle, but instead of contrasting , as in english we can contrast principle with first principle, he contrasts german. Nor would it be too surprising if kant was right about his own ancestry among them. What science can investigate and know is apparently all but endless, but it still leaves us wondering, what is it all ? Morality and religion have a far more limited rational content, returning to many of the same issues over and over again, but such issues happen to include, not just the questions about to live, but the ultimate questions about the meaning of life and existence (life, the universe and everything, in the memorable formula of douglas adams). This might work on the basis of spinozas metaphysics, where my existence is gods existence, but gods knowledge far transcends mine. Teaching aids for 200 lessons have been created by cspathshalas 250 volunteers. This can be traced back to an individual philosopher of the kyôto school, kitarô nishida (1870-1945). I begin to wonder if kaku himself is behind the promotion of this distortion. Unconsciousness, however, was as much of a theoretical challenge for the empiricists as for the rationalists.


Unsia Habib Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar,Pakistan.
Ahmadullah Khan Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar,Pakistan.
Syed Naveed Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar,Pakistan.
Sultan Ali Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar,Pakistan.
Usman Amin Khyber Medical University Institute of Medical sciences, Kohat, Pakistan.
Emulsification plays an important role in the formation of many products such as milk products, pharmaceuticals, lubricants, paints, dyes, and many food items. Their application in industry such as mining, crude oil extraction, pulp and paper, textile, and polymer, is immense. Over the last two decades there has been a growing interest in making emulsions by a new technique known as membrane emulsification. This is because it requires lesser energy as compared to the other conventional turbulence based methods like homogenization and rotor-stator systems, with the added advantage of producing droplets of a given size by just selecting the average pore size of the membrane. It is the distinguished feature of membrane emulsification that the resulting droplet size is controlled primarily by the membrane type and its pore size and not by the generation of turbulent droplet breakup. This article provides a review of the currently available emulsification processes with special focus on polymer emulsification. The main characteristics of emulsification processes including membrane emulsification process and its principles, influence of process parameters, industrial applications as well as an outlook to further improvement of the processes are discussed.
HABIIB, Muddasar et al. Energy-Efficient and Environmentally Sound Technique of Emulsification and Phase Inversion for Producing Stable Droplets. Pakistan Journal of Analytical & Environmental Chemistry, [S.l.], v. 13, n. 2, p. 16, dec. 2012. ISSN 2221-5255. Available at: <http://pjaec.pk/index.php/pjaec/article/view/203>. Date accessed: 21 apr. 2019.


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World At Risk: Can a deal be reached on the Sequester?
Sept. 6 - A new U.S. fiscal year starts in October and with it comes another round of spending cuts. Nomura Senior Political Analyst Alastair Newton on how the standoff between both sides will play out.
Okay. -- It's been rather strange period in the US. From a balance -- the mall match. Routes to roughly. The middle and -- long. Wet BF was never go mentioned by the F word on -- fiscal. Since the middle of July. Republicans and Democrats have begun. -- entrenched positions within -- two event coming up. In the fold the first is the expiry of the current government continuing resolution that ended September. And the second is. The expiry of extraordinary measures. Hate America. From people. And the need for increased the deficit. To dial back. -- six months ago. My. Worst case you know that feeling was of repetition you going hold its 2011. When we -- back. The politicians wouldn't like water -- that's. I think at that point. I think they will do with him maybe V continuing resolution will point out that maybe. They might even. And one of us tonight. But I don't think that this stage on the Republican to Democrat. It's been actually thinking America. Over the -- it's awesome that -- instance. And this is all about politics it's all about midterm elections in November 2000 -- thing if there's a risk to that. If is that. But two years ago. The Democrat President Obama. -- solidly winning the PR battle. Beating him for the Americans. Had a phonograph. What it's purposes. Something that we expect Obama was extremely successful November 2 years ago but also in the payroll tax. -- -- at the end of 2011. And the guy that. The end of 2012. However since then. The balance this long and somewhat to appeal -- the Republicans are now scoring points. The expense of the president. And that makes -- risk of something really. There's one other factor which markets need to. -- -- -- And that is all the the festival -- -- we've -- -- have a second round with the frustrations now market seems difficult without the -- frustrations happened on the first -- -- by what they did. And contrary to what President Obama is promising as a few weeks previously the world to know and first I think frustrations. Seem to have been at school without too much -- Economy -- point. The actual adjustment downwards to USC. You won't. I'm not necessary because that would be on math on this but if you -- behind the thoughtful report from the US published -- -- around about who can do. It takes that would be pessimistic outlook on the people start talking about over this thing to point out. Through this and perhaps being not so fewest GDP growth this year taking account of this second round of the frustrations another 85 billion split between. Defense expenditure and discretionary non defense expenditure. The impact of those six frustrations remains BC. But keep in mind this cool there's -- that's in the system to -- by definition then that -- through school the first round back in March secondly. These sequestration is going to be taking place in a somewhat different conflicts. Tapering will either have begun or be imminent if the Fed it to be taken his words and on the strength of that we've already seen. The US view to moving out with that Scania. Has gone a full percentage point to never ballots since late night putting more pressure on household as the -- sequestration for that and you could see things from consumer confidence which could -- -- division I. On the US economy. I'm not predicting. His -- -- -- any of these fiscal issues where I am saying is as with the euros. As with the Middle East and the big. As with Japan. As of economics comes to the crunch point all what is the narrow point that long and what is gonna happen consumption tax point -- -- Company or some of these kids. October in particular. There are plenty of reasons for markets. To focus back to an extent. On politics I think very -- about whether simultaneous combustion in these children these could actually cool some.
https://uk.reuters.com/video/2013/09/06/world-at-risk-can-a-deal-be-reached-on-t?videoId=268132478&videoChannel=75