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Start The Challenges of the End of the Demographic Transition
Economy Global Economy
Article from the book There's a Future: Visions for a Better World
The Challenges of the End of the Demographic Transition
Future | Globalization
Joaquín Vial
Banco Central de Chile, Santiago de Chile, Chile
Clara Barrabés
BBVA, Madrid, Spain
Carola Moreno
Estimated reading time Time 35 to read
At the start of the 20th Century there were some 1.5 billion humans on the planet. Before the current century is out that figure will rise to more than 10 billion. In just over 200 years the global population will have multiplied by 7. Never has such fast population growth been seen before and it will have dramatic consequences, including posing a genuine threat to the survival of the human species. The demographic process that humanity is now undergoing is very different from any seen in the past, even in the 20th Century. The main challenges posed by the end of demographic transition include a lack of resources to provide for the entire global population, the effects of climate change, contamination and population ageing. Each region faces a distinct future based on levels of economic development, demographics and geography.
The twentieth century was a decisive one in the history of humanity, marked by a demographic explosion and an unprecedented improvement in living standards of most of the world's population. It was also the century in which we realised that we inhabit a closed ecosystem; therefore, environmental limitations were no longer local problems but global ones. The last century was also noted for the culmination of the so-called "Great Divergence" (Pomeranz 2000), where the bulk of material economic progress was concentrated in a small group of countries now considered developed; meanwhile, the rest of the world grew, but much more slowly. A gradual convergence process only began to take root in the final decades of the century, led by China and other Asian countries.
The twenty-first century is the period in which we will have to struggle with the consequences of these phenomena. First and foremost, world population will continue to grow significantly, even though growth will be concentrated in the countries and groups that currently have lower levels of income. The income convergence process is consolidating, and it now impacts several billion inhabitants in developing countries, rather than the hundreds of millions in developed countries as was the case in the twentieth century. However, there is a very real risk that Malthusian restrictions will reappear, especially in the fields of fossil fuels and possibly in food, and the impact of human activity on the climate could thwart the material progress of humanity, possibly even endangering its very survival (Livi-Bacci 2012).
A second consequence is that the proportion of old people in the global population is set to increase dramatically, first in the most economically advanced countries, but followed closely by the rest of the developing world.
Another significant change is that the globalisation so widespread in the goods and financial services market may well impact the job markets with greater force. Currently, most skilled workers face a global market in some professions (e.g. health services and mining) and migration restrictions have been relaxed for these sectors. But we will also see migration driven by demographic imbalances: the richest countries will see their working-age populations diminish and their proportion of elderly people increase dramatically, so they are going to require immigrants. Traditionally, these people have come from nearby poor countries (from Latin America to the US, from the countries adjoining the Mediterranean to the north of Europe) or from countries with colonial links. But future migrations will not be limited in the same way because lower transport costs allow them to come from very distant regions, from very poor countries that still have high rates of population growth and a multitude of young people looking for opportunities.
In short, the world in the coming thirty or forty years will be very different from the present one, or the one that our parents and grandparents knew. The abovementioned changes will require very dramatic adjustments affecting not just the quality of life of future generations, but also their very existence. Over these decades, humanity will face challenges without precedent, except perhaps those faced at the start of the "Atomic Age." We will explore some of these challenges later.
Completing the demographic transition
One of the most dramatic changes of the twentieth century was the increase in the population. The century began with a little more than 1.5 billion inhabitants, of which just over one third lived in what we now consider to be developed countries. At the close of the century, world population had exceeded 6.1 billion and fewer than 20 percent lived in that same group of developed countries.
The latest United Nations demographic forecasts point to a world population that is continuing to grow; it is set to reach over 9.3 billion by the middle of the twenty-first century and exceed 10 billion at the end of it. Whilst these forecasts appear fairly certain for the next twenty or thirty years (due to the inertia of demographic phenomena) the reliability of the figures drops when we look beyond this period. What is clear is that this growth will be concentrated in developing countries, and that the present group of developed countries will represent a smaller proportion of the world's population.
The Industrial Revolution set humanity on a path of progress towards better living conditions, bringing about a demographic revolution. This phenomenon is the result of the so-called Demographic Transition (DT) that began with the economic and social advances brought with the extension and consolidation of the Industrial Revolution and its processes of urbanisation (Livi-Bacci 2012). Previously, the global population had grown at an almost imperceptible rate (an average of 0.6 percent since the start of the Christian Age), with cycles marked by famines, wars and plagues, and slow technological advances. It was a "Malthusian" world with limited progress, frequently marked by catastrophes that meant following generations had to cope with severely limited resources (Clark 2007).
The pre-DT period was characterised by very high birth rates as well as high rates of infant mortality because of food shortfalls, and generally poor hygiene and sanitary conditions. The start of the DT was marked by a drop in infant mortality rates thanks to small improvements in hygiene and food for mothers and newborn babies. The current DT process2 started at the end of the eighteenth century in the most advanced European countries, gradually spreading towards the periphery of the continent at the turn of the nineteenth century. It reached the rest of the world at the beginning of the twentieth century, although in regions with the most underdeveloped economies in Africa and central Asia, the transition began in the middle of the last century. This first stage was characterised by a sharp increase in the growth rate of the population.
A second stage then began, usually taking a more gradual form marked by a drop in birth rates: for countries that were the pioneers in this process, these lower birth rates are largely explained by the fact that more children survived per family. Other increasingly relevant factors were the urbanisation process and the growing numbers of women joining the job market, which along with newly available contraceptive methods and cultural changes that made maternity an option rather than a destiny. Population growth was highest at the start of this second stage.
The DT ended when the population stabilised thanks to lower birth rates prevailing over lower death rates. This occurred with significant overlap because there was a long period in which the total number of reproductive-age women kept increasing, even after fertility rates (the average number of children per woman, over the course of their lives) fell below the levels needed to keep the population constant. One characteristic of this transition is that towards the end of the second stage when the population had stabilised, the proportion of the elderly among the total population increased rapidly, while the number of children fell. As the most numerous generations reached advanced ages, there were fewer children: this is population ageing. The situation is exacerbated by increased longevity thanks to better health care and food, especially in the early stages of life, as well as advances in medicine (Fogel 2004).
At the start of the twenty-first century, we see that most developed countries (DCs) have already ended their DT, and most middle or low-middle income countries (MIDCs) have already seen their fertility rates fall below replacement levels (which is around 2.1 children per woman). This means these countries are a few decades away from completing the process. By contrast, a group of very poor countries (VPCs), currently with more than 600 million inhabitants, are still in the first stage of the transition or barely at the start of the second one. This means that over half the total global population growth of this century will be concentrated in VPCs.
The initial stages of the DT produced the "demographic explosion" of the twentieth century. The twenty-first century will mark the end of that transition, seeing the population stabilise and then age. This trend will first hit the most developed countries; countries that are economically further behind may reach the end of their DT towards the close of this century.
The graphs below demonstrate the difference between birth and death rates for the three groups of countries according to their level of development. We have chosen four countries that represent these three groups in some way, plus China, which as we will see, is having a very unusual DT.
The most advanced DCs in terms of DT are Japan and the southern European countries. We will elucidate many of the changes and challenges this group of countries is facing, taking the examples of Japan and Spain. One notable difference between both these countries is their very different immigration patterns, which have allowed them to defer the impact of this process. The MIDCs that are at a very advanced stage in their DT will be represented by Mexico, while Ethiopia is our example of a country still in the initial stages of DT.
The graph on the left shows that DCs are reaching a stage at which the population stops growing.3 The MIDCs reached the point of maximum difference in the second half of the sixties, and they should finish their DTs in the middle of this century. By contrast, VPCs have spent less time at the point of maximum difference and their DTs are slower. This is why, according to the UN central forecast, they will not complete their DTs this century.
The twenty-first century is the period in which we will have to struggle with the consequences of these phenomena: world population will continue to grow significantly, and there is a very real risk that the impact of human activity on the climate could thwart the material progress of humanity, possibly even endangering its very survival.
One case that merits a separate mention is that of China. With its almost 1.3 billion inhabitants, it represented over 20 percent of world population at the start of this century yet at the same time it is undergoing the most accelerated DT process on record. The explanation lies in the introduction of quotas of children per family at the beginning of the 70s, which culminated in the official one-child policy. This means the population will reach its absolute maximum in just under 15 years' time. The population will then fall and the proportion of the elderly in the total population will soar. Levels of income in China are still relatively low, despite the spectacular growth rates of recent decades, but its "demographic window" is closing rapidly, without there yet being an inclusive and solvent social security system. Because of its size, China's overall political and economic development will depend on how the country tackles these challenges and on its success or failure.
The graphs below offer a clearer picture of the challenges that the different groups of countries are facing because of changes in the age composition of their respective populations, which in turn are a consequence of the different stages that they are at in their DTs.
These contain the dependency rate (the number of young and old people as a proportion of the working-age population) broken down into children and old people, together with their expected evolution over time, according to UN forecasts. Workers in DCs, unlike those in other countries, are facing an increased burden, chiefly because of the greater proportion of elderly people.4
Dependency rates are alleviated in VPCs fundamentally because of falling birth rates. However, their proportion of elderly people will start to increase in the second half of this century. In the other developing countries, home to most of the global population and with a growing proportion of income, we see that the relief deriving from the reduction in young people is rapidly offset by the increase in the number of elderly people. These figures are very much slanted by the accelerated ageing of China, but the situation is common to this group, with a gap of one or two decades.
Clearly, the DT challenges are different for each group of countries. VPCs lack infrastructure; basic services such as health and education are precarious and coverage is deficient. Social security is a privilege, so the central concern is to cope with the large number of children and young people who require health and primary education, and then grant them access to jobs. However, these countries also need to lay the foundations for social security institutions. Policies on birth control and childcare will be key to achieving individual economic development as well as avoiding global social and environmental disasters.
At the other end of the spectrum, DCs must confront the changes arising from population ageing, with its consequent impact on job markets and the demand for services, especially in health and extended care. These countries may have the institutional capacities to move forward, but most of them need to make significant adjustments to ensure the solvency of their social security systems. Moreover, the growing political weight of the largest age groups could complicate these changes. These countries will require migrant workers, although they will definitely maintain or even restrict their selection criteria.
The twenty-first century will mark the end of the demographic transition, seeing the population stabilise and then age. This trend will hit the most developed countries first; those that are economically further behind may reach the end of their transition towards the close of this century.
MIDCs still have a window of opportunity of a few decades in which they must try their hardest to make the most of the growth stimulated by their increasing working-age population — who will be at their peak in terms of saving capacity — in order to build inclusive and solvent social security systems. At the same time, they need to invest in educating large groups of young people to help them navigate the increasingly demanding job markets they will face. Meeting these complex and very diverse demands will create a great deal of tension in countries that are not yet rich and with institutions that are often precarious. Those who make progress on these fronts can aspire to join the DCs this century. Those who fail could fall into zero-sum equilibrium, with average income levels, and many social and political tensions.
In essence, there are four aspects to the demographic evolution, both in terms of its timing and its geography, that are set to transform the world as we now know it. In "The shift in the global economic map," we analyse the changes in the economic power map and growth hotspots. Right now, over 80 percent of the global population and practically 100 percent of the population increase forecast for the twenty-first century are concentrated in developing countries. These countries are closing the gap in terms of living standards, measured by income per capita. This process is in its early stages and there is a long way still to go, but the global economic weight of these countries is already changing radically, displacing the focal points of demand that promote economic growth. Meanwhile, this is putting unheard-of pressure on resources and on the planet's capacity to absorb waste. At the same time, the increase in the proportion of the elderly, a phenomenon that is more accentuated in developed countries, will also affect global consumption patterns for goods and, above all, for services.
In "Impact on job markets" we will review the impact on the job markets. Countries in the advanced stages of DT will have to tackle challenges springing from the growing scarcity of manpower, especially of young people; they will also have to meet the needs of an older population who will need to stay in active employment for longer. By contrast, VPCs — which are still facing a significant increase in their working age populations — will have to educate their young people and then create jobs that facilitate economic development. MIDCs will face the unprecedented challenge of a scarcity of manpower in the coming decades, which could hit the two extremes of the job market: the most skilled workers and workers with fewer options who are willing to take any job just to contribute to the family income. These differences in the evolution of local job markets will promote a greater globalisation of employment opportunities.
In "Ageing and the risks for the social security system" we analyse the challenge of adapting social security systems to the massive increase in the proportion of retired people as compared to assets. The richest countries that adopted their distribution systems at the beginning of the twentieth century now find their solvency under threat; developing countries have to build social protection systems that are sufficiently broad and solvent so as to meet the needs of an elderly population that will increase dramatically in the coming decades.
These changes will have profound consequences on the distribution of power and the possibilities for conflict, a topic we explore in "Some political consequences of global ageing."
The shift in the Global economic map
All medium and long-term predictions highlight the important role emerging economies are going to play in promoting global economic growth over the coming decades. Over the next fifteen to thirty years, many of these countries will bridge the economic gap — measured by average income per inhabitant — between them and current developed economies. The 2008 economic crisis not only revealed this phenomenon; it has also magnified it.
To quantify these effects, we projected income evolution by country and country distribution across different income bands, measuring the mass of consumers resulting from the process of economic and demographic change. We combined this with United Nations' demographic projections, enabling us to estimate the number of inhabitants per country who exceeded a gross annual income of USD 10 000 (in 2012 currency) by country and by groups of countries.5
More DCs in the final stage of their DTs, such as Japan, will see their relative weight in the global economy decline.6 Living standards in these countries will remain high, but their contributions to the increase in global demand will be marginal. Consumers will increasingly concentrate their spending on services such as health and entertainment, and they will spend less on others such as formal school education and transport. A higher proportion of older people also means that more people will stop saving for their retirement and will start to withdraw their savings to finance their consumption. This will have a considerable impact on the distribution of savings in the world and therefore of current account deficits and surpluses. Globally, the biggest net savers today are China, Japan and several emerging countries from Asia, along with oil-exporting countries, Germany and the Nordic countries. By contrast, the US, southern Europe and many emerging countries receive savings from overseas, which they use to finance their current account deficits. This map is almost certainly going to change, partly because Japan, Germany, China and other surplus countries are more advanced in their DTs.
Then we have the MIDCs,7 which are fairly advanced in their DTs but still have between twenty and thirty years of positive growth of the working-age population ahead of them. Income distribution in these countries is usually quite unbalanced, and most of their people are in the low and middle-income categories. However, a combination of economic and demographic growth will probably spark a large increase in the mass of consumers, as economic growth translates into better job opportunities and higher real salaries. The protagonists of this change will be urban middle-aged families, with few children possibly of school or university age. Therefore, their consumption patterns will be even more focused on clothing, transport, education and eating, both outside the home and in. Over the projection period, the relative demand for services will increase, approaching the consumer patterns of developed countries such as Spain.
As we mentioned in the previous section, China, an MIDC, is taking its own path due its great size, fast economic growth and very unusual demography. This means it is now entering the final stage of its DT: its working-age population will soon start to dwindle, and the number of people aged 60–65 years old will increase dramatically. At the same time, nearly half a billion consumers with middle- and high-level incomes will emerge in China over the next twenty years. This phenomenon is extraordinary because of its scale and the characteristics of these consumers, most of whom will be people who have recently crossed the poverty threshold. Therefore, demand will be focused on basic consumable goods and durables, rather than on the services and expensive, sophisticated durables popular in better-off countries.
Right now, over 80 percent of the global population and practically 100 percent of the population increase forecast for the twenty-first century are concentrated in developing countries. These countries are closing the gap in terms of living standards, measured by income per capita. This process is in its early stages and there is a long way still to go, but the global economic weight of these countries is already changing radically.
The MIDCs will take on a bigger role in the coming decades, thanks to their unique combination of large population, highly dynamic economies and population growth. Our estimates indicate that in the next twenty years, over 60 percent of the growth in global GDP will come from this part of the world. This is a reversal of the situation seen in the second half of the twentieth century, when three quarters of the world's economic growth came from developed countries.
This shift in the gravitational centre of the global economy will also place a lot more pressure on the planet's resources, as well as on its capacity to absorb the waste generated by increased human activity. Technical progress managed to ease this tension for much of the twentieth centur y, but this was only possible because economic progress was highly concentrated in a group of countries that represented less than 20 percent of the global population. As progress spreads and grows, extending to over 70 percent of the global population, the tension between economic progress, population increase and the planet's capacity to cope will be ver y great. Although this is a global phenomenon that will affect all of humanity — so all countries will have to contribute towards achieving a sustainable balance over time — our chances of success will hinge on what happens in the emerging countries.
Lastly, we have the VPCs, which are at an early stage of their DTs, and which will see almost half the world's population growth this century. A large majority of the population in countries such as Ethiopia are too poor for the country to have a critical mass of consumers with acquisitive power from the middle or upper classes. Their consumption will revolve around food and some basic services; any increases in income will mainly be used for these purposes, whether improving their diet, buying more clothing, or accessing basic services such as education, drinking water and sanitation. Their chances of development will depend on finding productive niches geared towards exports that are competitive enough to attract foreign investment. At global level, their economic burden will reduce and they are candidates for providing cheap manpower to more advanced countries through migration.
Another factor influencing the evolution of the global demand for goods and services is linked to ageing populations, something that we have already touched upon. There is evidence that the changes in consumer patterns over the course of a person's life, in particular during old age, are a universal phenomenon. Practically all of the surveys on family budgets in Europe (developed and emerging, see Eurostat), the US, the UK, Japan and Latin America, bear witness to this. However, there are variations because of other factors involved such as income, cultural differences, tastes and preferences (which change over the course of an individual's life), the relative availability of goods and services and the institutionality of each country (European Commission 2005). Harris and Blisard (2002) estimate that income-food elasticity increases significantly with age, especially for those aged over 65: using surveys on family budges in the US they found that elasticity was 0.12 for people aged 65–74 and 0.21 for those over 75. The evidence for Germany (Deutsche Bank Research 2003) points towards significant expenditure in housing and health, and also in transport and entertainment items. The latter are more sensitive to income levels, and therefore possibly the impact on middle-income countries such as Mexico or those with lower levels, is more limited.
However, of all the changes observed in the spending patterns of those aged 60 and above, healthcare is the single most important item.
The lighter burden of children, young people and young adults reduces the relative importance of spending on formal school education, transport, restaurants and hotels, as well as on clothing and footwear.
Impact on job markets
Another area that will be affected by these demographic changes is the functioning of the job markets. The challenges facing developing countries will be very different from those of developed countries, precisely because of their different DT phases.
The DCs at an advanced stage of their DTs are going to face shortages in their young work forces, along with an increase in the number of old people, many of whom will have to extend their working lives. The MIDCs will still need to improve the coverage and quality of their education systems, and strengthen the qualifications and specialisation of their plentiful and still growing manpower.
In addition — as we shall see later on — developed countries are starting to face serious problems regarding the sustainability of their pension systems as a consequence of their ageing populations. There is also a delay in people entering the job market because of the increase in the average number of years people spend studying: this makes the prolongation of working life in countries with ageing populations practically inevitable.
As shown in graph 7, Japan has seen a fall in its working-age population since the beginning of the century; Spain is now witnessing the same trend. By contrast, developing countries that are further behind in their DTs will start to suffer from this phenomenon in twenty or thirty years' time, while the poorest countries such as Ethiopia are around fifty years away.
In DCs, key factors will be the absolute reduction in the working-age population and the delay in entering the world of work. These countries will suffer a shortage of manpower and they will receive immigrants — as has occurred in recent decades — but with some differences compared to the current situation. This is because they will not only require low-skilled manual workers to take on the tasks that are unattractive for local workers; they will also require more skilled professionals and technical workers. Right now, we are seeing a rise in engineers, computer specialists, and health and sales professionals (Manpower Group 2011). This phenomenon will be accentuated by increased demand for extended care services and, in general, for all services demanded by the elderly.8
All developed countries will have to implement the right mechanisms to extend the working life of their citizens. Employability in old age is not homogeneous. Data from the OECD and the European Commission demonstrate that employability is much higher for workers with more qualifications because this type of "human capital" does not deteriorate as much as physical capability does, for example. In the OECD average, 86 percent of companies are in favour of extending the working lives of their employees, but only the most highly skilled ones, which could lead to problems of inequality.
For countries in the intermediate stage of their DTs, the challenge is to help their young people integrate into more demanding job markets, while at the same time reducing the obstacles and disincentives to the formalisation of their job markets. The latter factor is key to successfully building systems to protect income in old age. These countries will be the focal point of the increase in global economic activity, generating job opportunities for the most highly skilled. That is why these countries will play a vital role in globalising job markets, as they will experience increasingly higher migratory flows in both directions (incoming and outgoing). On the one hand, their most highly skilled workers will have opportunities in DC job markets, but they in turn will also require highly skilled workers wherever there are shortfalls in local markets. One current example of this is the extraction industries such as mining and oil, where global markets of workers are already functioning, something that has been facilitated by the traditional presence of multinational companies in these activities. Mexico is an interesting case: while poor peasants migrate to the US, very often temporarily, the country also exports and imports highly skilled professionals and executives who work in commercial and services companies. These countries will probably start to feel immigration pressures from lesser-skilled workers from poorer countries or regions that have been devastated by natural disasters or armed conflicts.
All medium and long-term predictions highlight the important role emerging economies are going to play in promoting global economic growth over the coming decades. Over the next fifteen to thirty years, many of these countries will bridge the economic gap — measured by average income per inhabitant — between them and current developed economies.
In VPCs, the situation will be different: the great challenge will be to provide health and education to young people and to create attractive conditions to entice investments that offer reliable and well-paid work to the new generations. There is no doubt that these countries will be the main source of emigrant workers in other parts of the world and their transfers of earnings, via remittances to their families, will continue to play a significant role in helping to alleviate extreme poverty amongst their relatives.
Time will tell, but it is very likely that we are at a turning point in the evolution of job markets, and that we are indeed heading towards a much more globalised job market. The world as a whole — particularly DCs — is facing a profound paradox: while almost 40 million workers are out of work according to data from the ILO (2012), it is very difficult to find workers with specific qualifications and skills to fill existing vacancies. This imbalance in the job market seems set to continue over the coming decades. Part of it will be covered by migration, but it is also very likely that temporary or distance work systems will be implemented, thanks to greater connectivity. Meanwhile, large companies are already getting ready to transform their general processes, business and organisational models as well as their policies for training and re-skilling workers towards the most sought-after specialisations.
In geographical terms, the demand for workers is even more noticeable in emerging countries thanks to their higher growth rates. Perhaps the most spectacular change is occurring in Asia: over the next decade, demand for new workers in Asia is expected to increase by 22 percent, followed by Latin America (13 percent), the Middle East (13 percent) and Eastern Europe (10 percent) (Oxford Economics 2012).
Furthermore — as we have already remarked — the next decade will see emerging countries improving access to quality education. The highest annual growth in the talent pool, measured as the fraction of the population holding higher education qualifications, occurs in India (7.3 percent) followed by Brazil (5.6 percent), Indonesia (4.9 percent), Turkey (4.7 percent) and China (4.6 percent). The US and Canada, with rates of 1.4 and 1.3 percent respectively, lead the annual growth rate among professionals of the G7 economies.
The level of public spending on protecting the elderly will increase by around 4 percentage points of the EU GDP over the next fifty years. Traditional distribution systems will have to undergo at least two changes: new parametric adjustments to reduce the value of pensions under the defined benefit modality; and a more significant role for individual defined contributions.
Therefore, the impact on the global distribution of technical and professional capabilities will be dramatic. At present, 54 percent of university graduates come from the most buoyant emerging economies (E7: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) compared to 46 percent in the industrialised world (G7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US). In the coming decade, this percentage will probably reach 60 percent for MIDCs.
Ageing and the risks for the social security system
The social security system as we know it today is a quite recent invention. It dates from the end of the nineteenth century, when Germany introduced its workers to a mandatory system of contributions in order for them to receive pensions once they reached the age of 70. At that time, life expectancy at birth in DCs was around 50 years of age, a figure very much influenced by high rates of infant mortality. The idea of levying a charge on workers in return for providing a secure source of income in old age once they stopped working seemed both revolutionary and very reasonable. Moreover, it was not too onerous at a time when the work force and salaries were growing rapidly and the over-65 population was just a small fraction of the total population. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the life expectancy of a 65-year-old worker in the US was 72, and the over 65s represented less than 10 percent of the working-age population, as shown in graph 8.1. and 8.2.
This changed radically during the course of the twentieth century. By the end of the century, life expectancy at 65 had risen by around 50 percent, while the proportion of the elderly as compared to those of working age had almost doubled. Yet fundamental parameters such as retirement age, contribution rates or the replacement values of pensions had not changed significantly. During the twentieth century, these systems offered income security and a standard of living in old age that were unprecedented in the history of humanity. It is true that this mechanism was limited to the developed countries and to certain privileged minorities in developing countries, but it was clearly the paradigm to imitate. The nightmare of an old age where people had to work until they died — or live dependent on the support of their closest family members — was replaced by the dream of a "golden old age" that had previously been the reserve of the very rich. The coverage of the pensions system, measured by the percentage of the work force that regularly contributes to them, exceeds 80 percent in most DCs, reaching 95 percent in Japan. Spain is at the lower end, with 69 percent (Pallares-Millares et al. 2012). However, the basic arithmetic of this income security does not add up: the other factor supporting this coverage is a high level of commitment of financial resources, as high as 8.8 percent of GDP in Japan and 8.0 percent in Spain in 2007 (Ibid.).
In VPCs such as Ethiopia, social security is a privilege enjoyed only by groups of public employees, and payment is so unreliable that it is very difficult to collect taxes and social security contributions. While we do not have the figures for coverage in Ethiopia, most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have pension coverage rates of between 1 and 12 percent of the workforce, with the exception of Mauritius (53 percent) and Zimbabwe (20 percent) (Ibid.).
Amongst the MIDCs, China is a special case. Coverage there is similar to that of other countries with an equal or lesser level of development, reaching almost 30 percent of the workforce. It covers public employees, the armed forces, the employees of large corporations and almost no one else; even so, public expenditure on pensions is 2.5 percent of GDP. The coverage problem is especially serious due to the speed of the DT, which means that China has to deal with an increase in retirement-age people from 2 million a year 12 years ago, to around 7 million a year at the end of this decade. The situation will stabilise at this level until the middle of this century. In other MIDCs, such as in a large part of Latin America, coverage rates are low because job markets are precarious. This means that only a small proportion of the population contributes to financing social security. In Mexico, for example, coverage barely reaches 27 percent of the workforce — one of the lowest levels of the region — whereas just in Uruguay, Colombia and Chile does it exceed 55 percent (Ibid.).
DT has generated significant increases in the old-age dependency rate, which has made social security an increasingly suffocating burden for governments. For countries in the European Union, the European Commission's Ageing Report 2012 estimates that the public expenditure associated with care for the elderly amounted to 25 percent of GDP in 2010, with the biggest spending on pension payments (11.3 percent), followed by health (7.1 percent) and then extended care (3.8 percent). The OECD, using different methodology (OECD 2012), estimates that EU expenditure on pensions for that year amounted to 9.1 percent of GDP, while in the US it was just 4.6 percent — one of the lowest of the OECD.
The highest health costs derive from the fact that costs per capita increase significantly with age. In the US, it is estimated that the annual cost per capita of someone aged 65 is more than four times the annual mean cost from birth to 40 years of age (Alemayahu and Warner 2004). If this average figure is extrapolated for the whole population of the most developed countries, the health costs of the over 65s would go from representing just under 50 percent of healthcare spending to just over 60 percent, assuming prices stay the same.
The picture is much more diverse in developing countries. This reflects the fact that most are at an earlier stage of DT, they have varying degrees of certainty in their job market (coverage) and also their social security systems are based on alternative models — something we will come back to shortly.
Three types of answers have emerged to these problems, which are setting the foundations of the social security system of the future:
Parametric changes in distribution systems: This is the most common approach. It usually consists of a combination of increases in the statutory retirement age, tougher requirements for early retirement, and formulas for calculating less "generous" benefits, including rules about index-linking pensions. Most European countries are taking this route.
Incorporating defined contributions into parts of the system: The traditional systems described above (of distribution, defined benefit or pay-as-you-go) all stipulate that those who have a right to a pension thanks to their contributions receive an amount defined by a formula usually set by law. However, in recent years we have seen the introduction of defined contribution mechanisms. These are essentially voluntary individual savings accounts in which workers accumulate funds that can only be withdrawn at retirement. Employers may also contribute to these funds, especially in the case of complementary defined pension plans offered by companies. These funds are invested in the financial markets and the interest is accumulated in the fund, which is why they are also known as individual capitalisation systems.
Finally, some countries have opted to replace the distribution system with another one in which obligatory saving is managed under the modality of defined contributions in individual capitalisation accounts. This change was first introduced in Chile in 1981; since then, various Latin American and Eastern European countries have adopted it. In this system, private companies are in charge of account and fund management. The retired people of the twenty-first century will face greater financial risks in old age because of the financial crisis in the traditional social security system and the need to resort to savings mechanisms that do not guarantee a predefined pension. The security of interest in old age that we saw in developed countries in the second half of the twentieth century is not viable in the twenty-first century, with its much less favourable demography and where an increase in contributions would entail a loss of unsustainable competitiveness in the face of emerging countries with younger populations.
A great source of uncertainty facing traditional distribution systems is the difficult surrounding financial environment. In spite of the parametric reforms implemented in recent years, circumstances will not improve in the future. Moreover, the economic downturn of recent years has undermined the solvency of many developed countries, forcing harsh fiscal adjustments, so the outlook for traditional social security systems' "defined" benefits appears less than rosy. Calculations published in the Ageing Report 2012 (European Commission 2012) show that the level of public spending on protecting the elderly will increase by around 4 percentage points of the EU GDP over the next fifty years, in spite of the adjustments that have already been made. This seems difficult to resolve in current conditions and, almost certainly, the traditional systems will have to undergo at least two changes: new parametric adjustments to reduce the value of the pensions under the defined benefit modality; and a more significant role for individual defined contributions, which may become obligatory and be subject to tax relief. The end result of this will be that middle and high-income workers will face old age with more volatile levels of income that are less secure than those of the current generation of retired people, at least for sums above the minimum that can be guaranteed by the defined benefit system each government can sustain.
The elderly are facing several risks in terms of individual capitalisation: one is the scarcity of contributions, caused by employment instability, unemployment or voluntary redundancy — something more common in women with young children. A second risk is a financial one, associated with the changes in the value of the accumulated funds due to fluctuations in profitability. These two factors are very important while people are accumulating funds. Then once a person reaches retirement age, he or she can usually opt to contract a life annuity with a life insurance company, in which case there is a risk that the latter could go bankrupt. The other option is to gradually withdraw their funds, but the financial risk persists and then there is the risk of longevity — the probability of outliving the funds, despite applying one of the retirement programmes based upon accepted actuarial tables. Governments intervene to reduce those risks, whether by financing minimum pensions for those who do not manage to make enough contributions, or by establishing insurance policies or guarantees to cover the bankruptcy of the insurance companies. However, there is always an element of residual risk.
Faced with these problems and regardless of the type of pensions system, the great mitigating factor is the possibility of postponing retirement. As we saw in the previous section on changes in the world of work, this may become much more common in the future, thanks to the scarcity of workers associated with ageing, new technologies that facilitate distance learning, and a greater utilisation of partial work shifts.
MIDCs, whose pensions system coverage is limited by precarious job markets, are facing the multiple challenge of constructing inclusive pensions systems, providing a minimum level of coverage guaranteed by the State to the poorest retired people who cannot reach the minimum pension levels, and at the same time generating incentives for formalising job markets. Several countries in this group are constructing mixed systems: minimum pensions guarantees backed by the State and defined contribution mechanisms to finance pensions with replacement rates appropriate for middle and high-income workers. The balance is difficult because in many countries these mechanisms coexist with very generous defined benefit plans, as is the case among public sector workers, or for employees of Mexico's state oil company (PEMEX). On the other hand, most of those countries have limited capacity to set levies on private incomes and the tax ratio seldom exceeds 20 percent of GDP. Meanwhile they are still facing the challenge of extending the coverage and quality of education, in order to assist the newest generations of young people.
China is an extreme case in this group, owing to its scale and the speed of its demographic change. Points in its favour include the willingness the government has shown to experiment with different pension models and to rapidly implement an extensive system combining many of the elements described above. MIDCs are facing a race between economic growth and rapid population ageing. As Jackson and Howe (2004) describe so well, developed countries first got rich and then grew older, with Japan perhaps the last country to manage this just in time. The current MIDCs are running a serious risk of growing old before they grow rich, which could be a source of great tensions, and their growth expectations may be frustrated.
Finally we have the VPCs, which do not yet have systems to protect income for old age and where the population will continue to grow rapidly over the coming decades. These countries do not generally have the income or institutional soundness to build systems of this type, as their resources are scarce. Their main priority is still to establish education and health systems that put the development of young people first, so they can aspire to future economic growth. However, as far as possible, they need to start building inclusive social security systems, with incentives aimed at promoting saving and labour stability, precisely to foster rather than hinder the economic growth process. Some authors such as Sachs (2005) have argued in favour of providing economic aid so that these countries can start implementing self-sustaining growth processes. Part of that aid should support the construction of inclusive social security institutions and preventing these institutions from becoming profit mechanisms for groups closest to power, which could end up stunting the progress forecast for these countries (Acemoglu and Robinson 2012). If they fail, the fall in the fertility rates that usually accompanies economic growth will probably be postponed; this means these countries will maintain high levels of population growth, multiplying the risks of humanitarian and ecological disasters, which could have global implications.
Some political consequences of global ageing
The demographic explosion of the last two and a half centuries is largely explained by the wider availability of resources, thanks to technological and economic advances, and especially to the use of fossil energies in the production and transportation that came with the Industrial Revolution. At the start of the twenty-first century, the developing countries that are home to over 80 percent of the world's population are entering a process of accelerated economic growth, gradually closing the income gaps that separate them from the most advanced economies in the world. Yet there are indications that our globally finite resources could once again limit human activity and, ultimately, put a brake on population growth. Food, energy and metal prices have risen notably since the middle of the previous decade. What first seemed to be the usual price cycle for raw material prices has now convinced many people that we have entered a "super-cycle," caused by problems in meeting the developing world's increasingly higher demand for these resources. However, there are also global threats arising from the planet's limited capacity to absorb waste and emissions without affecting key variables such as the climate (Wilson 2002; Sachs 2008).
Today, it seems reasonable to assert that humanity has reached an intensive stage in the exploitation of the planet's capacities. Additional increases in the population and improvements in living standards require profound technological changes that expand the planet's current capacities or reduce the adverse effects of human activity.
Some of these problems, especially those linked to the scarcity of resources, were resolved in the past through technological advances. This made it possible, in most cases, for the price of raw materials to maintain a downward or constant trend over very long periods. Whilst the potential scarcity of today's traditional energy sources (hydrocarbons) would appear crucial owing to the latter's involvement in all human activity, innovation does appear to be responding to high energy prices. There is therefore reason to feel confident that technology will be able to provide the answers, even if it is not currently clear when or what form these answers will take. By themselves, limited resources do not seem to be the obstacles that could radically change the demographic panorama of this century.
However, pollution and its potential climatic impacts are more difficult problems to tackle. Its effects are cumulative and slow to reveal themselves. Moreover, external factors often prevent pollution-related costs from being adequately reflected in prices, and therefore people, companies and governments do not have direct incentives to change. These problems are exacerbated both because they are global and because there are no supra-national bodies with regulatory and executive powers to tackle them. Scientific research into these issues is also very recent and there are still many grey areas.
Today, it seems reasonable to assert that humanity has reached an intensive stage in the exploitation of the planet's capacities. Additional increases in the population and improvements in living standards require profound technological changes that expand the planet's current capacities or reduce the adverse effects of human activity. Since these technological changes do not occur smoothly or universally, it is highly likely that conflicts over resources will increase over the coming decades. It is also likely that countries or communities will suffer climate-related catastrophes. These events will not be evenly distributed and they will affect different countries and communities in different ways depending on their levels of economic development, demographic profiles and geography.
For countries with the most advanced DTs and which mostly belong to the DCs (China and Russia being the most important exceptions), the greatest challenge will be properly balancing the demands for greater social protection in old age with the changes needed to achieve sustained increases in productivity. One sphere where these tensions will show is in the tax sector. The evidence of the last two decades, especially in Japan and Europe, is that the disagreement about fiscal resources usually results in greater spending on health and social security, which is at least partly offset by reductions in defence spending. As some analysts have highlighted, this may widen the gap in military capabilities between the US and the rest of the developed countries, thanks to the fact that the US is under less pressure from its ageing population (Jackson and Howe 2008; Haas 2012). However, the current US supremacy may become increasingly less effective in non-conventional conflicts in faraway areas which require large troop deployments, such as may be the case with crises over scarce local resources (water, food).
Another issue for these countries — one currently felt in Japan — is the balance between the demands of an elderly population, which is increasingly more numerous and carries greater political weight, and those of younger families whose priorities are biased by longer horizons of reference. Recent press releases concerning Japan have highlighted the preferences of its pensioners for a strong Yen that makes their consumption cheaper, which conflicts with the interests of workers who see their jobs and salaries threatened by the loss of competitiveness. Disagreements surrounding the reconstruction of the regions devastated by the 2011 tsunami are also reported: the elderly are pressing for fast reconstruction with little change, while younger couples are willing to wait longer in exchange for improvements in the urban environment.
China and Russia, for their part, will face great tensions arising from the rapid growth in the proportion of their elderly and the reduction in their working-age populations in absolute terms. At macroeconomic level, this is almost certainly going to mean a relative fall in national saving and a rise in consumption, with a potentially positive impact on global imbalances but with unclear effects on national economic and social circumstances. The demand for greater coverage of social provisions, health and extended care for the oldest people is going to generate significant tensions that will affect the capacity to design and implement institutions, as well as the allocation of tax resources. In these conditions, it is very hard for these countries to maintain their current rates of investment and military expenditure. Furthermore, they are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and they will need to use increasing amounts of resources to adapt to these effects. The biggest question mark lies over whether, in this context, they will be able to maintain high growth rates.
For the rest of the MIDCs in the final stages of their DTs, the situation varies greatly, but they share some positive features: they still have a couple of decades of "demographic window" ahead of them in which the working-age population will be growing in absolute terms, whilst the pressure for extending coverage in the educational system will start to fall. Their middle classes will become ever more prevalent and the youth bulge will dissipate, lessening the risk of social unrest and the breakdown of the democratic systems (Madsen 2012; Urdai 2012). However, they are also vulnerable because of their insufficient social security coverage and, in some cases, the potentially negative impacts of climate change and their dependency on certain natural resources. The size of this group — and the fact that it will see 40 percent of the increase in the world's population and over half of the worldwide GDP growth in the next forty years — means that whatever happens in this segment will be crucial to how the map of economic and social power will evolve over the century, as well as to how successfully we will contain and adapt to climate change. Globally, the struggle for resources and the drive to make human development sustainable will unfold in this group of countries.
Lastly, we have the group of countries where DT is just beginning: the poorest countries on the planet. This zone may well see the biggest conflicts over resources and the largest environmental disasters, both because of its vulnerability to the climate (since many of its people subsist on agriculture) and because of the weakness of its institutions and the lack of resources needed to adapt and mitigate these problems. Although they are still not under pressure to extend social security on a massive scale, they are under pressure to feed their people, make health provisions and educate on a large scale, in the face of their growing number of children. Moreover, many of them are still facing several decades with a high proportion of young people, which could mean that tensions will turn more easily into armed conflicts. It is difficult to see how these countries can resolve these problems by themselves and move ahead without help from the rest of the world.
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This work is the result of research carried out while the authors were members of the BBVA Studies Service. We are grateful for this opportunity and would like to thank Fernando Gutiérrez and José Luis Escrivá for their support. We would also like to thank Angie Suárez and Stephanie Alfaro for their assistance.
Livi Bacci (2012) distinguishes at least the two previous transitions: when organized hunter-gatherer clans formed, and when sedentary populations settled and developed around agriculture.
The United States is the main exception to this rule, partly thanks to immigration and the fact that the first generation of immigrants have higher birth rates.
Note that the UN forecasts represent a recovery of the birth rates in those countries, which keeps the child dependency rate stable. However, if these rates do not rise, child dependency will fall somewhat, but at the expense of a subsequent increase in old-age dependency rates.
For further details see Moreno and Vial (2010).
This group contains most of Europe, Canada and certain Asian countries such as Japan and Singapore.
This group contains most of Latin America and emerging Europe, as well as China and others in emerging Asia.
As Fishman (2010) describes, the solvency of the systems that provide fundamental services for old people may well rest on attracting low-cost migrant workers to carry out most of the tasks.
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The Zero Pass Hot Air Collector is a newer brainstorm that a couple folks here on the Simply Solar forum are working on, so we've started a new topic for this design.
The idea behind this collector is that any air stream will tend to keep within a predictable range, so the heat absorbers (usually screens) can be placed on the upper and lower edges of the airflow. That way, the heat is scrubbed off the absorber as the air passes between, but there should be minimal flow resistance. In addition, in theory, it should keep most of the heat away from the glazing, enhancing performance.
Some side by side tests, comparing the zero pass design to the tried and true, double layer screen reference standard, should be coming soon.
The sun FINALLY came out so testing has begun in earnest. As some may not know I will be testing a basic 2-screen collector versus a relatively new design, the ZeroPass(ZP). I started this testing project about two years ago, but due to the year it took me to re-side the house and the health issues as a result of the abuse I placed on my body, I was unable to complete the collectors until now. It's the first time in years I've looked forward to cold weather so I can test these units side-by-side.
As a collector, the 2-screen has become the de-facto solar air collector. Testing has shown that the screen collector to be one of the easiest to build, and best performers. Being a newer design, the ZP has not been previously been tested against other collectors, specific the 2-screen. Last week I was able to fire up the 2-screen last week and the performance, and the numbers were impressive. So the ZP will have its work cut out for it.
Both heaters have 4'x8' heat collector areas. The ZP has an additional 1' manifold section on each end. I don't think the ZP would need this large a manifold, but I wanted the space just in case. Others have noticed that balancing air flow can be easier with a larger manifold. It's also a lot easier to close off a portion, if needed. My original ZP manifold design had the ducting entering from the end of the manifold and tapering down to nothing at the far end of the manifold. This follows a basic principle of HVAC ducting. Where each branch is roughly half the air flow of the previous branch. I also had dampers that allowed me to control the flow of air and balance the flow evenly from side to side. Interestingly, I needed the damper controls at BOTH ends as the air flow was completely different weather you were pushing or pulling the air. Ultimately, I ended up scrapping the tapered manifold. Not because it didn't work, but I learned something about manifolds when I built my 2-screen. With a 2-screen, air flowing evenly from side to side is not so important as the heating takes place when the air passes through the screen. So unless you have rather a hot spot or a cold spot within your collector, it may not affect your efficiency much. On a ZP, due to the way the air is heated, it is very important for the collector to flow and heat evenly from side to side. When I added the diffuser above the intake on the 2-screen, I noticed the flow of air coming out from under the diffuser was not even. My tests showed that near the edges, the flow was 2-3 times greater than flow coming straight out from the intake hole. Normally, air flow hitting the diffusor would spread in roughly 360 degrees. But since my intake was at the very back edge of the box, the flow was restricted to roughly 180 degrees, with the extra 180 degrees of flow mostly being directed to the edges. I overcame this flow issue by adding a few restrictors that limited the extra flow being sent to the edges. Once The manifold area will allow the air to enter the heating area BETWEEN the layers of screen. So, unlike the 2-screen, the flow of air is not designed to pass through screens to pick up heat.
For both collector boxes I used 1"x6" boards and ½" plywood for the back and 1" polyiso insulation to line the box. The boxes were covered with 6mm twin-walled glazing. The fans supplying the airflow are a matching pair of 350CFM exhaust fans I scrounged from a couple of downdraft cooktops. 6" flex duct is being used for both test units. My test ZP was designed to be modular and easily accessible. I can pull off either manifold unscrewing only 4 bolts. I wanted to be able to bring them out of the cold if I have to work on them. The glazing can be removed with a ¼ counterclockwise turn of hold downs. Once the glazing has been removed, the fixed back screen and adjustable screen can easily be removed. The fixed back screen has two layers and is ¾" above the back wall insulation. I thought about 3 layers to start, but it is a lot faster to add a layer of screen than it is to remove dozens of staples. The gap between the fixed, back layer of screen(s) and the adjustable upper layer will start at ¾". The width of the collector opening is 43". So any screen gap much smaller and I will begin to restrict airflow as the single layer adjusting screen is attached to the dampers that can control air flow(32.25Cu. In. default screen gap versus 28.26Cu. In. ducting). The screen gap can adjust from a little over 2" wide to completely closed off. I used threaded bolts trough the adjustable screen frame. The bolt heads are on the back of the collector. The screen gap adjustment is simply screwing the bold head in or out. The airflow and gaps at either end can be adjusted independently of one another, which could be interesting to play around with. I want to try having a wide intake gap tapering down to a very fine gap, or no gap at the exhaust. It might be too restrictive, but I'm wondering if it would pick up heat along the gap and near the exhaust the air is "forced" through the screen. In other words, use the heat collecting properties of both designs. Hmmmmm.
The area where the ducting enters the house is right above the double laundry tub. It's a very awkward. Where the ducts enter outside is even more awkward as the window is under an 18" cantilever and I don't' fit underneath. Working inside the window, I'm either sitting on the edge or partially standing in the laundry tub. Thank goodness it's made of concrete. Before I turned on the fans, Passively, I have to say the 2-screen was much warmer. Although its design is much more conducive for a passive collector. The ZP airflow would simply pass along the underside of the cold glazing until it reached the top. After I turned on the fans and did a rough adjustment to match the CFM, the ZP was clearly the warmer unit. But with a lot of loose, leaky ducting connections, and a touchy speed controls, I'll reserve judgement for now. For now, I'll be pushing the air through the collectors, before I try pulling the air through the test collectors. Let me know if you have any questions or if there is a test you would like to explore. This testing is as much for the group as anything.
What did you use for the clear glazing on your panels?
Never mind...I just read it in your posting...missed it on the 1st read.
When comparing two collectors like I am, what is the "proof" of better efficiency? Assuming the collector boxes are the same size and the air flow are matched, is the proof the higher output temps or the net increase in temp from entry to exit?
The collectors have not turned on yet, but the input and output temps of the 2-screen is 15 degrees warmer. I assume it's because the deflector covering the intake is absorbing heat and passing it on the intake thermometer probe. This won't happen on the ZeroPass due to the insulated manifolds. Will this skew the results once the air starts flowing? None of the probes is exposed to sunlight.
Yes, you want identical input temperatures and of course identical air flow through the collector. Then you will measure the temperature rise of the two collectors. The collector with the higher temperature rise is the better performer (again, assuming both collectors have an equal amount of air passing through them).
The reason you can't start with a 15 degree higher input in one vs the other is that the hotter a collector is running, the less efficient it will be, losing more heat to the ambient surroundings. It would not be a true test under identical conditions.
The difference as I see it is due to the design difference. One has no manifold, and the other an insulated manifold. So my differences in intake temps readings right now is mainly due to the fact the fans are not running. The differences would be much less once the air was flowing, but still cause a slightly increased air intake reading. So in my case, the 2-screen will always read a higher input temp, due to thermometer probes proximity to the heat absorbing deflector? The 2-screen intake temp probe is in the throat of the intake collar. Could I use the intake air from the basement floor as a constant? Both intakes are about 6" off the floor and about a foot apart. Only difference would be 4' additional flex duct to the ZP intake.
In that case your ducting would influence the test, so that's not a good way to go. You definitely want to measure right at the input of the collector and right at the output of the collector, to remove as many other variables as possible.
Let's see what the differences are once the fans are running. If it is only a couple degrees (much less than 15) at the input I think it will be a reasonable comparison when you calculate total temperature rise for each.
We want to learn how well the solar collector design works by comparing one design to another. Greg already documented that his temperature entering one collector is 15 degrees hotter than the other. That's as a result of his duct setup and has absolutely nothing to do with absorber design. So, if Greg used the floor input temperature, the collector receiving that extra advanced preheating has a 15 degree advantage, which pretty well invalidates the test.
For side by side tests to be useful, the collectors must have all variables identical, with the exception of heat absorber design. It's important. Not doing so and putting those results out there may cause casual readers to misinterpret and extrapolate those invalid conclusions.
Side by side testing is harder than in looks. Gary and I both worked really hard on this. it's not an easy thing to accurately do, but it is really important and useful information that is well worth the time to do correctly.
You are right about the difficulty in testing. While I don't want to seal and tape up all of the leaks for each test, I may have to. I balanced the air flow on both collectors. This was hard enough as both fan setups have a slow ramp up in speed. I stepped away for a few minutes to allow the readings to stabilize. About 10 minutes later I checked the readings. I'm not too concerned with output temps or fan speeds(other than being balanced against each other) at this point. At least not until this intake probe temp issue is resolved.
All external probes were checked against my Kestal anemometer/temp probe and were within .4 of each other.
Does anyone know what to make of the data or how to correct the artificial temp bump?


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The Sailor not the Sea is an album by the Belgian singer-songwriter Ozark Henry (stage name of Piet Goddaer), released in 2004. The album was awarded for double Platinum in Belgium (80.000 copies sold).

Track listing
 All songs written by Piet Goddaer, except "At Sea" by Goddaer and Joost Zwegers.
 "La Donna è Mobile" – 5:43
 "Indian Summer"  – 3:47
 "Jocelyn, It's Crazy We ain't Sixteen Anymore" – 5:39
 "Give Yourself a Chance With Me" – 4:12
 "Vespertine" – 4:46
 "At Sea" – 5:12
 "Free Haven" – 4:42
 "The Sailor not the Sea" – 6:18
 "Cry" – 5:32
 "April 4" – 5:02

2004 albums
Ozark Henry albums

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


All euroNAS Products support this rate.
In Cluster Environments it is recommended for the connection between the nodes – this way you will gain optimal sync speed.
How can I configure Jumbo Frames?
Jumbo Frames enable you to send and receive larger network packages. It is a very useful feature for some applications (such as virtualisation).
Client, network switch and the network controller must be able to support this functionality.
To configure jumbo frames, connect your monitor and keyboard to the server and select option Jumbo Frames.
Now you can configure the MTU value (please read the documentation of your NIC and Switch about supported values).
How can I reach the server if I forget its IP Address?


Bible Club ministry for the '17-'18 school year has concluded. Ministry for the '18-'19 school year will begin in September. We would love to have you as a volunteer this fall!
Wednesdays after school at Immanuel Baptist Church.
Wednesdays after school at BYKOTA Baptist Church near Mesa Verde Elementary 4022 NE 26th.


Hi, I'm Mitch. I shoot wedding films!
I haven't always captured people's weddings, and I've never been to film school. The truth is, I've spent a long time unsure what it was that I truly felt passionate about in life. I've always loved telling stories, and a few years ago I picked up the camera to start capturing the stories of two people who are head over heels in love on their wedding day. I create films to make people laugh & cry, in the happiest way possible!


text:
Q: Confused about many different ways of doing the same things I am currently working on the Ruby course in Codecademy and on the 'hashes and symbols' section. Here is the code I am working with:
strings = ["HTML", "CSS", "JavaScript", "Python", "Ruby"]

symbols = []

strings.each do |x|
    if x =='s'
        x.to_sym!
        symbols.push(x)
    end
end

The purpose of this code is to add the element of a string to the symbols variable if an 's' is encountered in a string. However, the code is not passing. I looked at a solution and found this:
strings = ["HTML", "CSS", "JavaScript", "Python", "Ruby"]

 symbols = []

 strings.each do |s|
     s= s.to_sym
     symbols.push(s)
end

My question is, does Ruby pick up on the actual 's' in the array. This seems like hard coding to me???

A: Codeacademy's solution you posted doesn't actually solve the problem you explained. An actual solution would look like this
strings = ["HTML", "CSS", "JavaScript", "Python", "Ruby"]
symbols = []

strings.each do |s|
    if s.downcase.include? 's'
        s= s.to_sym
        symbols.push(s)
    end
end

A: I would write something like this:
strings = ["HTML", "CSS", "JavaScript", "Python", "Ruby"]
symbols = strings.select { |s| s =~ /s/i }.map(&:to_sym)
#=> [:CSS, :JavaScript]

Explanation:
select selects all elements of an array that need a condition. The condition is this example is: The string s should match the case-insensitive regexp /s/i (aka the string contains a 's' or 'S'). That said strings.select { |s| s =~ /s/i } would return ['CSS', 'JavaScript'].
map(&:to_sym) return the array, but called to_sym on each element first.
Another option might be:
symbols = strings.map { |s| s.to_sym if s =~ /s/i }.compact

A: It seems as though you are actually trying to make each string into a symbol. If this is the case, the running an each method will simply overlook any 's''s. To see what's actually happening in the working solution, let's break your solution down first.
strings = ["HTML", "CSS", "JavaScript", "Python", "Ruby"]
symbols = []
strings.each do |x|
#So, if x is equal to a Class String of S
    if x =='s'
#Turn that x into a symbol, which none of them should work
         x.to_sym!
         symbols.push(x)
    end
end

This is the code you say works.
 strings = ["HTML", "CSS", "JavaScript", "Python", "Ruby"]
 symbols = []
 #Similar each loop, but they used s and not x
 strings.each do |s|
 #Instead of checking whether there is a Class String of S, it is just
 #turning each value in the array into a symbol and pushing to the
 #symbols array
     s= s.to_sym
     symbols.push(s)
 end

Therefore, in summation, your code will never work unless there is an 's' in the array, which there may be s's but not a single string with an s. The latter works because it changes them all without an if statement.
-edit-
I looked at the problem from Code Academy and I can see where the confusion came from, which is this instruction For each s in strings, use .to_sym to convert s to a symbol. This is somewhat confusing pseudocode, but let me reformat it so you can see where the confusion occurred strings.each |s| { s = s.to_sym } so the objective is to use s as your empty variable. You did not need to detect s, just use it as the empty variable.

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text:
Aldon Smith of 49ers avoids jail — unless he…
Aldon Smith of 49ers avoids jail — unless he screws up
San Francisco 49er Aldon Smith leaves a Santa Clara County Superior courtroom after pleading no contest to weapons and DUI charges Wednesday afternoon, May 21, 2014, in San Jose, Calif. He will be sentenced on July 25. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)
San Francisco 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith (99) and linebacker Dan Skuta (51) practice during NFL football mini-camp in Santa Clara, Calif., Wednesday, June 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
By Cam Inman | cinman@bayareanewsgroup.com and Tracey Kaplan | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: July 18, 2014 at 6:45 a.m. | UPDATED: August 12, 2016 at 7:10 a.m.
SAN JOSE — In a boon to 49ers fans and the franchise, a judge Friday sentenced an apologetic Aldon Smith to probation for three years rather than to jail for drunken driving and possession of three assault rifles.
But the star linebacker must serve 11 days on a work crew — most likely cleaning up freeways — and pay a $2,000 fine. And if he violates any of the conditions of probation — which include not drinking alcohol or even going to a liquor store — Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Daniel Nishigaya said he will immediately put him in jail for an undetermined amount of time.
"I would like to apologize for my actions and let you know I will follow any orders you give me," Smith told the judge in a courtroom packed with reporters.
The sentence came after Smith pleaded no-contest in May to misdemeanor drunken driving and three felony counts of possessing illegal assault rifles. The judge said he reduced the felony gun charges to misdemeanors, as is fairly common, because Smith demonstrated "poor judgment," "irresponsible behavior" and "at times recklessness" but "no devious criminal plan." Smith has no criminal record of violence, the judge added.
Smith also could be facing discipline from the NFL for his off-field incidents. He's allowed to report to training camp when the 49ers report Wednesday.
"We are pleased that Aldon has moved past this phase of the process, and will support any action the NFL may take with respect to this matter," 49ers general manager Trent Baalke said in a statement. "The organization will continue to support Aldon's efforts to grow personally from this experience."
Most suspensions for personal-conduct violations have ranged between one and eight games since Roger Goodell became commissioner in 2006. An eight-game suspension was given to then-Cincinnati Bengals wideout and repeat offender Chris Henry in 2007, as a result of gun and DUI charges. First-time offenders, which Smith might be, drew one- and three-game suspensions after gun or drunken driving incidents.
Both the judge and prosecutor Brian Buckelew stressed that Smith received no special treatment because of his celebrity status. In fact, the conditions of probation, including banning Smith from possessing any guns or ammunition and subjecting him to search and seizure at any time by law enforcement, are tougher than usual.
Smith purchased the guns in Arizona, where they were legal, the judge noted. Santa Clara County sheriff's deputies discovered them after a house party Smith and his roommate hosted in June 2012, during which uninvited gang members stabbed the linebacker and shot two others. Smith cooperated fully with the deputies, allowing them to search without a warrant and helped them convict the man who stabbed him. Smith also never tried to say the guns were someone else's.
Regarding the drunken driving charge, Smith's lawyer Josh Bentley noted that Smith spent five weeks in an "intensive," inpatient rehab program.
However, prosecutor Buckelew noted outside court that in mid-April, according to police reports, Smith appeared to be quite inebriated when he was arrested on suspicion of making a false bomb threat at Los Angeles airport. Los Angeles prosecutors wound up deciding not to charge him.
"The greatest danger is his continuing use and misuse of alcohol," Buckelew said.
Smith must report to the work crews on Mondays, starting July 28. But the judge indicated he would be willing to allow Smith to change that schedule, as he would any other defendant, if he gives the court notice.
Late Friday, Smith issued a statement thanking his friends and family "through this difficult time" and vowing to stay on the straight and narrow. "I have learned a great deal and have worked very hard to become a stronger individual and a better person," he said in the statement. "I look forward to continuing on this path."
Smith faced a maximum sentence of four years and four months in jail for three felony counts of possessing assault rifles. But legal experts said it would not be unusual given his lack of a criminal record for a judge to knock them down to misdemeanors, impose a shorter sentence of weekend work and put him on probation. Smith was arrested in Miami once on suspicion of drunken driving, but that incident was knocked down to an infraction.
Smith had been scheduled for sentencing July 25, but the District Attorney's Office requested that the sentencing be moved up because of a family emergency with the prosecutor.
Smith kept a positive profile in public lately. He's done community work with the Boys & Girls Club, headlined a charity basketball game between 49ers and Raiders (he played only in the final minute) and attended Saturday's flag-football game at Candlestick Park between former 49ers and other NFL legends.
"Hopefully this will give him an opportunity to slow down," Thurston Smith, the linebacker's father, said in an exclusive telephone interview afterward. "With his maturity level, he turns 25 in September, I pray he settles down and realizes people that love him and are in his corner, now more than ever."
The 49ers placed nose tackle Ian Williams on the active/physically unable to perform list. Williams entered last season as the starter but suffered a broken ankle in Week 2 and missed the rest of the season. Glenn Dorsey is now the starter.
Cam Inman | San Francisco 49ers reporter
Cam Inman joined the Bay Area News Group in 1995, specializing in the 49ers and NFL since 2000.
cinman@bayareanewsgroup.com
Follow Cam Inman	BayAreaNewsGroup.San.Francisco.49ers Follow Cam Inman	@CamInman
Tracey Kaplan | Reporter
Tracey Kaplan is a reporter for the Bay Area News Group based at The Mercury News. A former courts reporter, she is now reporting primarily on consumer issues, and welcomes any tips/suggestions, especially on how to make ends meet in the Bay Area. Watch for a series this summer on her personal solution to the housing crisis -- spending her nest egg on turning a cargo van into what will eventually be her full-time home. For more info, see @itsavanlife on Instagram and our Facebook group, Full House: Inside the Bay Area housing shortage.
Follow Tracey Kaplan	/groups/bayareahousingshortage Follow Tracey Kaplan	@tkaplanreport
Bay Area TV Sports: What to watch on Sunday-Monday
U.S. Figure Skating: Alysa Liu is 4th but happy while Karen Chen takes bronze
Giants owner Johnson says he was unaware of QAnon connections in donations

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THE HILLSBOROUGH INQUIRY PANEL will today begin to examine the millions of previously unseen files on the tragedy..
The committee, chaired by Bishop of Liverpool James Jones, was due to meet with the Chief Constable of South Yorkshire Police Meredydd Hughes in Sheffield.
It will be the first time the panellists, including Liverpool-born newsreader Peter Sissons, will lay eyes on the two million previously unseen documents relating to the 1989 disaster. The inquiry is expected to last up to two years.
THREE ORMSKIRK AND SKELMERSDALE MEN have gone on trial in connection with the theft of a £40m Leonardo da Vinci painting.
The Madonna Of The Yarnwinder was taken from Drumlanrig Castle, in Dumfries and Galloway, in August, 2003.
Edinburgh High Court heard that solicitor Marshall Ronald, 53, of Skelmersdale, Robert Graham, 57, of Ormskirk, and John Doyle, 61, of Ormskirk, hatched a plot to demand £4.25m for its safe return.
The three, along with two other men from Scotland, deny charges of conspiring to extort or attempting to extort the money from the late Duke of Buccleuch, his son and the insurers of the artwork. The case continues.
CAR WORKERS AT VAUXHALL'S ELLESMERE PORT plant will benefit from a £1.7bn funding injection from US parent company General Motors (GM).


The 94th Draw for Bangladesh Bank 100 Taka Prize Bond was held and published on 31 January 2019. Prize Bond (PB) is a form of savings of Bangladesh Bank (BB) and it is interest-less bond. The lottery is commenced on every three months by Bangladesh Bank.
Prize Bond (PB) is a form of savings of Bangladesh Bank (BB) and it is interest-less bond. A total of 2484 prizes announced for 54 series of the prize bonds. In each series there 46 prizes. The lottery is commenced on every three months by Bangladesh Bank.
Tk 100 prize bond are divided in different series. There are a total 54 series so far and each series has 46 prizes i.e. each series has 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th prizes. In order that a bond is to be included in the draw, it must be purchased before at least two months of the draw date. Number of Prize Bond is every series 10 lacs. The claims for prizes can be lodged within two years after draw. As per rule 20% tax will be deducted from prize bond prize money.
The 90th Draw for Bangladesh Bank 100 Taka Prize Bond was held and published on 31 January 2018.


text:
Sylvie A. Durham
Greenberg Traurig, LLP
Securities & SEC
Financial Institutions & Banking
Corporate & Business Organizations
Administrative & Regulatory
All International
Derivatives — Congress Introduces Legislation to Clarify Extra-Territorial Reach of Dodd-Frank Swap Rules
Legislation has been introduced in Congress to clarify the applicability of the Dodd-Frank Act swap rules to non-U.S. Persons and for U.S. Persons engaging in swap transactions with non-U.S. Persons.
The extraterritorial application of the Dodd-Frank derivatives rules has been uncertain. Under the proposed Swap Jurisdiction Certainty Act, U.S. registered swap dealers engaging in swap transactions with a non-U.S. Person will not be subject to the Dodd-Frank derivatives rules if each party reports the swap to an SEC registered swap repository. Additionally, non-U.S. persons who register as swap dealers under Dodd-Frank would only be subject to the Dodd-Frank derivatives rules for swaps executed with a U.S. Person and are not required to comply with the Dodd-Frank derivative capital requirements if they are complying with similar requirements in their home country as long as the home country is a signatory to the Basel Accords. Click here to read the proposed legislation.
©2022 Greenberg Traurig, LLP. All rights reserved. National Law Review, Volume I, Number 318
Effective Resolution of BRICS Country Transfer Pricing Disputes
A. Tracy Gomes
Fill for the Funding Dip: EB-5 Visas
Sheryl Jaffee Halpern
OFAC Settles Alleged Sanctions Violations for $88.3 million
Government Contracts Practice Group
Ms. Durham has experience on both the legal and business sides of derivatives, private funds, complex financing transactions, and structured products. Prior to joining Greenberg, she was an investment banker and Head of Structured Equity Products at BNP Paribas where she concentrated on structuring equity financing and equity derivative transactions for corporations and hedge funds. Prior to BNP, she was a partner in the Corporate Dept. at the law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP.
Ms. Durham has been involved as both a lawyer and...
durhams@gtlaw.com
www.gtlaw.com


text:
« Gee, You Say "Oil Spill" Like It's a Bad Thing. I Prefer to Think of the Oil as Being Liberated. | Main | Remember all men would be tyrants if they could. »
It's White House Letter Day: Soldier Boy Edition
It's been a week since Dear Leader returned from his trip to Pakistan and India, where he blew up the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the question on everyone's mind is how in the world was he able to spend the night safely in Dangerous Pakistan? At least that's what Elisabeth Bumiller says and she should know:
President Bush has been back from the Asian subcontinent for more than a week now, but one big question from his trip remains: How did it happen that the president spent a night in Pakistan, the assumed haven of Osama bin Laden and one of the one most dangerous countries in the world?
Well, it happened because Perv insisted that BushCo sleep over. And Perv insisted because he was still smarting from Clinton's refusal to spend the night six years ago. (The powers of the Clenis are truly extraordinary.) Now, with Pakistan harboring bin Laden a strong partner in the War on Terra, Dear Leader knew what he had to do. From Ms. Bumiller, who must be dusting off her biography chops in preparation for the coming "Some Choose Greatness: The Fabulous Career of Condoleezza Rice":
White House officials will not say whether Mr. Bush overruled the Secret Service in making the trip, or even if he was told not to go. But it is no secret that the service was in a state of anxiety during his time in Islamabad.
Reporters were not told that Mr. Bush would be spending the night in Pakistan until 24 hours before, which was the same day that a suicide bombing in Karachi killed an American diplomat. In Islamabad, Air Force One arrived and departed in the dark, with its running lights off and shades drawn, so that it would be less of a target for a missile attack. Once the president was on the tarmac, it was impossible to tell whether he got into a waiting motorcade — or slipped into a Blackhawk helicopter for the trip to the fortresslike American embassy, with the motorcade speeding below as a decoy.
Either way, the route of the motorcade was the site of two of four assassination attempts on Mr. Musharraf, hardly a comfort to the Secret Service. In December 2003, a large bomb detonated on a bridge 30 seconds after Mr. Musharraf's motorcade passed. Eleven days later on the same route, two suicide bombers plowed their cars into the motorcade, killing 15 people and cracking Mr. Musharraf's windshield.
Oh. My. God. He is so hot. And brave. Just like the soldiers who are killing and dying in that war he started. And that wimpy Secret Service was all like, "We're nervous!" and BushCo was all like, "I'm going! I must avenge that weakling Clinton's faux pas. Tell my wife I love her." And the Secret Service was all like "She's sitting in the helicopter next to you, sir." And he was all like, "I know that!" And they were all like, "Yes, sir. Wheels up, sir."
We are indeed a lucky and grateful nation.
eRobin on March 14, 2006 in Elisabeth Bumiller - NYTimes, Iraq/Afghanistan, New York Times, White House Letters | Permalink
Oh. My. God. He is so hot. And brave.
That's nothing Robin, you should hear what White House Officials are refusing to confirm or deny about ME.
White House officials are also refusing to say whether this is an interesting dKos diary on whether Democrats should support the troops and the whole militarist glorification thing. Necessarily posted by a vet.
Posted by: DavidByron | March 14, 2006 at 04:45 PM
Oy. Bumiller.
Posted by: The Heretik | March 15, 2006 at 04:45 PM