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Q&A with Xavier Legrand
The ready-made French auteur on the complexities of domestic violence, his acting background, and his feature-length debut Custody.
Images: Ariel Fisher
Posted: 20 June, 2018
Xavier Legrand in West Hollywood. © Ariel Fisher.
Every day in our society, men go to extremes, unable to tolerate that their wives will leave them. And today, women are still not protected.
AVANT QUE DE TOUT PERDRE, CUSTODY, JUSQU'À LA GARDE, JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING, THOMAS GIORIA, XAVIER LEGRAND, YOUNA DE PERETTI
In 2014, filmmaker Xavier Legrand received a Best Live Action Short Academy Award nomination for Just Before Losing Everything, about a woman fleeing her abusive husband.
Legrand's nerve-shredding debut feature Custody is a companion to that short: the depiction of post-divorce domestic strife between Miriam (Léa Drucker) and Antoine (Denis Ménochet). 12-year-old Julien (newcomer Thomas Gioria) is the couple's traumatized son—or pawn—who's cruelly manipulated by Antoine in his attempt to restore the broken marriage. In the film's opening moments, a presiding judge must determine whether to believe Miriam's claims of domestic abuse or to give Antoine the benefit of the doubt, and by extension, award him shared custody of their son. When Julien's own damning testimony is taken into consideration, Antoine counters that it's the byproduct of Miriam's brainwashing tactics: "I don't know what she says to him." Cut to some days later, the judge has rejected Miriam's request, granting Antoine weekend visitation rights. As the film wears on, the suspense reaches a sobering crescendo as Antoine grows more monstrous—his potential for ungovernably volcanic fits dashing all hopes of averting near-irrevocable tragedy.
Custody bowed in competition at last year's Venice Film Festival where it picked up two prizes: Best Director and Best Debut. Legrand is a ready-made auteur to keep our eyes on.
Custody opens in New York on June 29 and Los Angeles on July 13.
I learned that in France a woman dies at the hands of her live-in partner every two and a half days. It's a startling statistic. You spent years researching domestic violence and it's important to you to raise public awareness about it. Is this an autobiographical work as well?
No, Custody is not an autobiographical story. The story was built on the testimonies I gathered.
You've been touring the world with Custody, to places like Dublin, Venice, Glasgow, Toronto, and San Sebastián. Domestic violence exists everywhere and we've all experienced it or witnessed it to varying degrees. Have you noticed that there are nuances to your film that are interpreted differently in different cultures? For instance, crimes of passion aren't recognized everywhere. Guns are complete foreign objects to civilians in a lot of countries. Of course, the subject of domestic violence may be a bigger taboo in one place over another…
There are necessarily different interpretations depending on the culture, but it seems important to me to qualify things. Of course, in some countries, domestic violence is a taboo and spectators' reactions are affected. But I have the impression that the different reactions of the spectators are more related to their own education than to their culture. In all countries, the patriarchal family exists, and if an individual has been educated with these values and wants to keep them, then this individual interprets the family situation in which the characters in the film find themselves in a certain way. Some men and women think that Antoine was pushed to death by his wife, his son, and his parents. One man even reacted by saying: "Yes, Antoine goes too far, but Miriam left him anyway!" We then notice that there is still a long way to go to change mentalities.
What makes the film feel so authentic is that you steer the narrative in unexpected ways to ease the tension as much as you confront with a lot of intensity. You're waiting for violence to erupt when Antoine follows Julien home to their new apartment, but Antoine ends up breaking down. You're fearing for Julien during his visits with Antoine, but Julien's grandparents are a sort of protective barrier in those particular situations. In creating the Antoine character, did you want to leave room for any sympathy?
Not sympathy, but humanity. It was important for me to show Antoine as a man and not as a monster. Because Antoine is a man. We have to accept that and face it. He is a man of today, and there are many. These men are in denial about their violence. Not knowing how to control himself, he controls others and manipulates them. His virile anguish at losing the woman he considers his own pushes him to the extreme. Many men in our society today are capable of this. Just look at the statistics. This is one of the definitions of the French title Jusqu'à La Garde. This expression can literally mean "until custody," but also "until the extreme." Every day in our society, men go to extremes, unable to tolerate that their wives will leave them. And today, women are still not protected. I repeat myself, but, we then notice there is still a long way to go to change mentalities.
It's clear that you have a great appreciation for performance, both as a filmmaker and as an actor yourself. Do you direct in the way that you like to be directed yourself?
For me, cinema is a window on the world that allows us to see how others live, evolve, act, and choose in a world that is a kind of mirror to ours. That is why the performance of the actors is at the heart of my work. The construction of the script and my choices of direction converge to highlight the actors' performances. I don't have a particular method. My role as director is to adapt myself to each actor's way of working. What interests me is taking care of every detail: the rhythm, the gestures, and the look. Long before the shooting, I talk about the characters' psychological trajectories with the actors. But on the set, the word "psychology" is forbidden. For example, I tell the actor to drink his glass of water in several sips without stopping and looking at the bottom of his glass, rather than giving him a psychological indication like, "Your character saves time and gives himself courage because he will have to face and convince his opponent."
A post shared by Xavier Legrand (@_xavier_legrand_) on Jan 3, 2018 at 11:33am PST
It was interesting to hear from the Dardenne brothers that they often direct actors "until the point of exhaustion" so they would "no longer be acting." You also sometimes hear about directors telling one actor one thing and another actor a different thing so they would be "tricked" into a situation on camera. Is directing truly different for everyone or are some methods fundamentally unethical in their approach?
Of course, everyone has their own way. I know I absolutely cannot use that kind of method: exhaustion, the trick, or stealing something from the actor that he wouldn't give me. Being an actor myself, I know that if I feel in danger, I think more about my survival instinct than letting myself go into a situation. In Custody, the tension is constant. This tension was only possible because, between each shot, the shooting was relaxed and there was good-natured atmosphere.
Whenever we see young actors on screen who are as natural and commanding as Thomas Gioria is in Custody, people ask questions and I'm sure you considered a lot of different kids before finding him. Did working with Thomas make you think about your past acting experiences? What did you need in order to perform when you were that age?
When I met Thomas, I was immediately convinced that he was the actor who could play this character. He had that sensitivity, maturity, fragility, and courage that the character required. It was Youna De Peretti, the casting director, who found Thomas by doing traditional auditions. I've been performing since I was a teenager on stage. I started at the same age as Thomas, who is also taking drama classes. So I know that, at that age, the mind is very clear about reality and fiction. The only difficulty at this age is not hiding behind the shyness and the text, which can sometimes make the acting false. It was just necessary to make him understand that all the work of preparation before the shooting exists only to make him more solid in what he must play, but that he must not repeat exactly what happened during the rehearsals to welcome the present moment. We worked on the hypervigilance of his character, rather than on his fear, and on his different strategies to prevent his parents from meeting each other, rather than on his fragility and permanent anxiety.
Custody is an effort for which you've be called a "ready-made auteur." You're a very confident and gifted filmmaker. What did you find most challenging on this film?
In all and for all, the most difficult was writing. Writing about this subject, which is so delicate, so dangerous, and so painful required a strong point of view and something that avoids all clichés and all Manicheism. The most important thing for me was to take care of the place I gave to the spectator. Each page of the scenario, each line of dialogue, was questioned in this sense. For the production, the most difficult thing was to find the sets that had to match the story I wanted to tell, but also the way I wanted to film each scene. I wasn't looking for the aesthetics of the decor, but rather, the configuration and symbols appropriate for the story.
You've cited The Shining, Kramer vs. Kramer, and The Night of the Hunter as influences on Custody. More generally speaking, I would love to know what movies and specific moments in cinema have really shaped you in your development as a cinephile.
This is a very difficult question and could occupy many pages of your article. I will gladly give you a very short list of films that have marked my life as a cinephile: An Affair to Remember by Leo McCarey, Teorema by Pier Paolo Pasolini, Miss Violence by Alexandros Avranas, JFK by Oliver Stone, mother! by Darren Aronofsky, Opening Night by John Cassavetes, Höstsonaten by Ingmar Bergman, Gerry by Gus Van Sant, Secrets and Lies by Mike Leigh, and the most important is The Piano Teacher by Michael Haneke.
Custody is the feature-length companion to your short film, but I understand that you had originally envisioned this project as a trilogy of short films. Was it always going to end where we see Custody end or is there more to this family's tragedy that you want to explore?
My project changed during writing. Initially, I wanted to make three short films that tell the story of the separation of the couple through the context of domestic violence. The first episode was the flight, the second was about divorce with the issue of custody of children, and the last one about the consequences of the court's decision. But my project has changed its face. The second and third episodes came together in one. This resulted in Custody, a feature film rather than two short films. My trilogy has been transformed into a short film and a feature film. I have completed my project and there will be no further action. I mean, that's what I think right now.
You're a very decorated filmmaker already. Notwithstanding that Oscar nomination for your short film, you've won top prizes at places like Toronto, San Sebastián, and Venice. There must be a lot of interest from future collaborators, investors, and studios. What have been some of the more interesting offers? Do people want to remake Custody?
It is true that I have only directed two films—-a short and a feature—that have been noticed at many festivals around the world and awarded several times. Indeed, these awards have generated many proposals, but I prefer to take my time and continue working as I have done until now, rather than succumb to the first tempting proposal. And today, there is no prospect of a remake.


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Sequel Bits: 'Indiana Jones 5', 'The Incredibles 2', 'Mission: Impossible 6', 'Underworld 5', 'xXx 3'
Posted on Wednesday, April 13th, 2016 by Angie Han
After the jump:
Underworld 5 gets a new title and a new logo.
Nut Job 2 makes off with a summer 2017 release date.
Tom Cruise promises more crazy stunts in Mission: Impossible 6.
No, Indiana Jones 5 is not a prequel, and no, we aren't getting a new Indy.
Neighbors 2 took inspiration from an unlikely source.
Vin Diesel sings with a gospel choir on the set of xXx 3.
Robert Carlyle (a.k.a. Begbie) teases Trainspotting 2.
Andrew Stanton drops some hints about The Incredibles 2.
Underworld 5 finally has a real title. Screen Gems and Lakeshore Entertainment have announced on Facebook that the next installment of the vampires vs. werewolves series will be called Underworld Blood Wars. It's not a bad name, and it's certainly more imaginative than Underworld Awakening (i.e., Underworld 4) or Underworld Evolution (i.e., Underworld 2). There's a new logo and everything, as you can see above. Anna Foerster is directing the film, which brings back Kate Beckinsale's Selene and Theo James' David, for release on October 14.
Remember The Nut Job? No? Well, Open Road Films certainly does, probably because the animated adventure grossed nearly triple its $42 million budget in 2014. The studio quickly greenlit a sequel for January 2016, but as you may have noticed, that date has already come and gone. So now they've got a new date in mind: May 19, 2017, which will pit The Nut Job 2 against Annabelle 2 and Baywatch.
At this point, the Mission: Impossible movies are basically a documentary about Tom Cruise trying to kill himself for our amusement. I kid, of course, but the series has definitely become known for its death-defying stunts. Last time around, for example, director Chris McQuarrie strapped Cruise to the outside of a moving airplane and held him underwater for minutes at a time.
And it doesn't sound like Cruise and McQuarrie will be slowing down any for Mission: Impossible 6. Variety reports that during a CinemaCon appearance, the actor promised "more incredible set pieces [and] stunts" — as well as a "very entertaining and compelling story," as if anyone is watching these movies for the story.
Continue Reading Sequel Bits >>
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Sequel Bits: 'Indiana Jones 5', 'Mission: Impossible 7', 'Disenchanted', and 'Edge of Tomorrow 2'
No, Tom Cruise Did Not Bring Scary COVID-19 Robots to the Set of 'Mission: Impossible 7'
A New 'Indiana Jones' Video Game is Coming From Bethesda and Machine Games, the Developer of 'Wolfenstein'
'F9': Vin Diesel Promises There's Much More Beyond What Was in That Trailer, Talks Justice For Han and More
Behind the Scenes Footage, Casting, Images, Release Dates, Sequels, Andrew-Stanton, Frank-Marshall, Indiana-Jones, Indiana-Jones-5, Lindsey Collins, mission-impossible, Mission: Impossible 6, Neighbors, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, Nicholas-Stoller, Robert-Carlyle, The Nut Job, The Nut Job 2, The-Incredibles, The-Incredibles-2, Tom-Cruise, Trainspotting, Trainspotting 2, underworld, Underworld 5, Underworld Blood Wars, Vin-Diesel

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Welcome to the Gahela User Guide. Here you will find the most up-to-date documentation for the current release. The guide is written in an easy to read style with end-users in mind. Simply find the topic you need help with from the list, or if you want a brief overview, select Quick Tour .


Property managers and homeowners frequently ignore the signs of a drain problem in sinks, bathtubs or toilets until there is a difficult clog that requires removal by a professional plumber. Difficult clogs can occur in the sewer lines directly underneath a building or outside. But any type of clog requires removal as quickly as possible to avoid the inconvenience of overflowing toilets or nonfunctional sink and bathtub drains inside homes and businesses.
A common household plunger will not dislodge a large clog of bathroom tissue, hair and grease from drainage systems, but a plumber from Guardian Plumbing has industrial-strength equipment to get rid of the debris in sewer lines. We begin by using a plumber's snake to shift a clog slightly to help it to flow through the drainage system while blasting water with a powerful jetting system. With this drain cleaning process, we can dislodge debris efficiently without needing to dig through a lawn to find the clog. If we are having problems locating the position of a clog inside a drain, then we can insert a camera into the sewer line. The camera sends an image of the drainage system to a computer's viewing screen so that we can determine where to target the blasts of water.
The plumbers we send to commercial and residential locations are licensed, insured and bonded to work in each geographic region we serve. Guardian Plumbing has supplied scheduled and emergency plumbers for over 30 years, leading to a reputation of high-quality work. For commercial properties such as restaurants, medical facilities and retail establishments, we recommend preventative drain cleaning services. To prevent backflow of sewage into a home, homeowners should contact us immediately for hydro-jetting service when sinks and bathtubs are draining slowly or making gurgling noises.


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A customer pumps gas into her vehicle in Miami, Fla., on Nov. 22, 2021. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Gas Prices Fell Nationwide in Past Week
By Bryan Jung
Bryan Jung
Bryan S. Jung is a native and resident of New York City with a background in politics and the legal industry. He graduated from Binghamton University.
Gas prices across the country have fallen since last week amid fears of an Omicron variant-led economic slowdown.
The national average price of regular gas per gallon dipped 4 cents this week to $3.35.
Indiana saw the largest price drop, at 21 cents, to an average of $3.192 per gallon.
Prices are expected to further decline this winter as fewer drivers are expected on the roads.
For consumers, the last time gasoline prices were this low was on Oct. 20, said the American Automobile Association (AAA). The price of gas is still $1.21 more than at the same time last year.
The opening price on Monday of West Texas Intermediate crude was $68.18 per barrel, $4 down from last Monday, with Brent crude oil at $71.82 per barrel, nearly $5 below prices last week.
Last week, OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed not to cut production, while pledging to increase oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day in January, most likely in response to the Biden administration's call to increase supply to tame high fuel prices.
President Joe Biden ordered a record 50 million barrels of oil released from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Nov. 23 to try and quell the rising prices at the pumps.
"It's pushing oil down further and will likely lead to even lower gas prices," according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy in speaking to Fox Business.
It could even push the national average to $2.99 per gallon by Christmas, "barring any changes in the omicron variant," he said.
The Omicron variant has yet to make an impact on the U.S. economy so far.
Omicron May Have Picked Up Genetic Material from Common Cold Virus
"Consumers may be catching a break at the pump right now, but it's not for a very good reason," said Andrew Gross, an AAA spokesman.
"A potential COVID-19 induced economic slowdown hurts everyone and could prompt OPEC to slash production if oil prices drop too low."
However, "should Omicron see some level of discovery that leads nations to close borders beyond their previous moves, OPEC could step in to immediately cut production," Gross said.
According to new data from the Energy Information Administration, demand for gas dipped from 9.3 million to 8.8 million barrels per day from last week.
It is believed that the slight decrease in demand contributed to falling global gas prices, while lower crude prices put downward market pressure on pump prices.
"This is largely due to continued anxiety over the omicron variant and because some countries have begun issuing lockdowns, keeping motorists in some countries from consuming as much fuel," De Haan said. "We will see precipitous declines in the next week or two as stations continue to sell through higher priced inventory before slowly lowering their prices."


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Once again, King Crimson shifts their sound, and this time, I am left wondering if this is the predecessor to Radiohead's sound (that is, once it had evolved to it's intelligent electronic stage). Seriously, if you're an old prog nut who still follows KC and likes this album, you need to check out Radiohead. Some of the similarities are uncanny. Dinosaur particularly stands out, along with the VROOM VROOM sections, among others. But it isn't just the sound, but the style and attitude the band seems to have that makes this connection even more "all too weird."
It's funny, sociologically, how our opinions can be based merely on a reputation and not on the material presented in front of us. This album has all the inklings of a late 90's Radiohead album, and differs really in name only. This shows to me mostly how forward thinking Crimson really was, always one step ahead of everyone else, always the leader of the pack.
Admittedly, there is always a familiar style to KC records, yet I find all of them to be distinctly different. Thrak is no exception. And although not my favorite effort by the band, it remains a unique part of their discography. So next time you come across this album, play it following The Bends and OK Computer and let me know what you find. I think you will be quite surprised.


In the Plate Tectonic Cycle, students learn about the Earth's dynamics as it spins on its axis, revolving around the Sun. The Earth is restless inside, as it tries to cool its interior. Material inside the Earth become viscous and flow in certain areas. Movement within the Earth's interior is reflected on the outside crust. Convection currents inside the mantle (area between the crust and the outer core) create 2 types of crustal movements. When convections currents come together, convergent plate boundaries (earthquakes) are formed on the Earth's crust. When the convection currents pull the crust apart in two different directions divergent plate boundaries (volcanoes and earthquakes) are formed. A consequence of the Earth's surface moving faster along the equator than at the poles creates tension which in part forms transform boundaries.
Hands-on activities teach students how scientists investigate the Earth through earthquakes and volcanoes. They learn to challenge and think about different theories. Learning about how to cope with the disasters caused by plate tectonics is also emphasized.


TWO STORY TREASURE CLOSE TO THE PARK! ENJOY EVERYTHING THIS HOME HAS TO OFFER IN THE BEST POSSIBLE LOCATION. SIT BACK AND RELAX ON THE PLEASING FRONT PORCH OR WALK THROUGH THE FRECH DOORS TO YOUR BACK DECK. BRING AN OFFER IMMEDIATELY!


text:
from __future__ import unicode_literals

from searchstack import indexes
from searchstack.indexes import Indexable, SearchIndex

from .models import Bar, Foo

# To test additional ignores...
class BaseIndex(indexes.SearchIndex):
    text = indexes.TextField(document=True, model_attr='body')

    def get_model(self):
        return Foo

class FooIndex(BaseIndex, indexes.Indexable):
    def index_queryset(self, using=None):
        qs = super(FooIndex, self).index_queryset(using=using)
        if using == "filtered_elasticsearch":
            qs = qs.filter(body__contains="1")
        return qs

# Import the old way & make sure things don't explode.

class BarIndex(SearchIndex, Indexable):
    text = indexes.TextField(document=True)

    def get_model(self):
        return Bar

    def prepare_text(self, obj):
        return "%s\n%s" % (obj.author, obj.content)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


SPARK has a positive impact on children in Alliance, Ohio.
That was the message Joe French, Alliance SPARK director, presented on May 2 during the fourth annual SPARK Ohio Networking meeting at Walsh University in Canton. SPARK stands for Supporting Partnerships to Assure Ready Kids.
As part of his presentation, French highlighted results SPARK Alliance has earned from 2008 to 2011. Based on the KRA-L testing at the kindergarten level, data indicates SPARK students consistently academically outperform students that did not participate in the program. Statistics show an almost three-point difference in both 2008 and 2011 on a performance scale ranging from 18.5 to 23, meaning SPARK students consistently perform better, and by a sizeable margin.
"Research shows children who are prepared for kindergarten continue to do well in the early grades of elementary school and are more likely to graduate from high school and achieve success in life," French reports. "SPARK has been working diligently over the past four years to increase the number of 'ready kids' arriving on the doorsteps of Alliance kindergarten classrooms. The KRA-L data shows children are more prepared for kindergarten because of their SPARK experience," said French.
Click here to read an article in The Review about the May 2 presentation and about more SPARK results.


Does the University of Sydney really want to displace mental health services from Callan Park?
An estimated 4% to 7% of reception inmates suffer from a functional psychotic mental illness.
The twelve-month prevalence of psychosis in NSW inmates was thirty times higher than in the Australian community.
Hundreds of mental health patients die preventable deaths because of a lack of hospital beds.
In 12 months to 2006 137 recently discharged mental health patients died by suicide; the toll in 2005 was 137; in 2004 128. If the time frame is extended – say to 30 days – then the numbers double.
The rate of suicide has doubled – at least in the past two decades, since they started emptying hospitals.
Source: Lawrence et al, "Increasing suicide rate among WA psychiatric patients"[the only state where they have tracked the fate of every patient in the 20 years following the 1980s hospital closures] Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 104, Dec 2001.
In areas where bed numbers fall below 80% of NSW Health's target the death rate is TWICE that of areas where bed numbers are above 80%.
Half the suicide swere in hospital less than four days when the average stay for all patients was 17 days.
Having a mental illness has never been more life-threatening or risky.


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Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Antarius
Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
estorilm wrote:
Boeing didn't "abandon" the VLA market, they already had a VLA! Guess what they did when AB launched the 380? They designed a new 747! That's absolutely NOT "abandoning" VLA lol. And nope, they got killed (sales-wise) worse than AB did, albeit with less of an investment.
You are correct that Boeing did not abandon the VLA market. That said, you are applying a slant to it as though Boeing tried equally hard to compete and lost more.
The 747-8F was the launch aircraft. One that is still in production, recently got orders and as the replacement cycle hits, could get more. The 8i was second, a sort of "we're already halfway there" throw in to the ring. The 8i was an total flop.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
Since the A380 was launched, I always felt it was a very big airplane for a very small market (super hub to super hub).
ILNFlyer wrote:
The pilots of the last ferry flight of the last A-380 will be carried home on a 748....... sorry, couldn't resist....
Then the pilots of the last 748 ferry flight will return home on an ex-Northwest DC-9.
Arion640 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.
Point to Point travel has not won. As the majority of 787 flights start and end at a hub.
Yes. But a new market of longhaul hub-point has emerged and won. Previously, you'd fly LHR-JFK-PIT or NRT-LAX-SAN for example (using OW routes as I'm more familiar with them). Now BA flies to MCO, PIT, SAN, LAS etc. bypassing the need for a partner or second hub. JL flies to SAN.
So yes, it isn't truly P2P, but the 787 did materially change the nature of flying.
douwd20
Does this mean every A380 Emirates retires is headed for scrapping?
Last edited by douwd20 on Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
747megatop
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -
https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx
On another note, thinking from a pure business perspective of how well a company is run & managed one would ask the question & rightfully so - 1st the A340 and now the A380; 2 aircraft that came to a premature end; what the heck is going on? Who is running this company? Granted they have 2 wonderful products in A320 and A330 but we saw what happend with Lockheed & MD when they got their bets wrong. One exited the commercial aircraft space and the other went out of business in the commercial airplanes sector before being purchased by Boeing mainly for it's defense business.
747megatop wrote:
The a340 did hit a premature end, but it isn't fair to lump it into the same category as a a380. The 343 was co-developed with the a333; the latter was a big success and its smaller sibling the a332 as well. The a345 and 346 were mistakes, but IMO, more akin to the 748i. But the core a340 (which was in tandem with the a330) was/is a very successful program.
The a380 stands alone as a collasal cleansheet cockup.
Ziyulu
Were any US carriers initially interested in the A380?
LH707330
Antarius wrote:
What harmed the A340-300 was a couple of things:
1. Timing: it launched into the 1991 recession when NA carriers were broke (NW and CO canceled their orders), so many airlines didn't buy until later on when the 777-200ER was around
2. The lack of engine price competition (the 777 had three engine vendors engaged in a price war while Snecma was having financial issues and didn't want to play ball)
3. Fully-optimized engines on the 777 (the CFM56-5C was a refanned engine that got pressed into service when the Superfan was canceled)
The 340NG were a mix of bad idea (stretching an optimized frame too far), subpar engine (T500 was a scaled T800 with a T700 fan), and a great competing engine (the 115B beat spec by 4% IIRC).
The 380 was overbuilt for the stretch, and ran into its own issues as well, as documented exhaustively here and elsewhere....
Ziyulu wrote:
I don't know if any expressed formal interest, but I could see Airbus considering 747-400 operators United and Northwest as potential customers.
Ending the A340 and A380 doesn't mean Airbus is in trouble. The A340 actually did well, it just got outclassed after the A330 was upgraded, plus the 777 and A350 came to the market. As for the A380, one could argue admitting mistakes and cutting losses is a sign the company is being well run and managed.
United787 wrote:
The Whale has been beached, RIP.
No! Not yet.
With today's announcement, no new whales will be conceived and none will be born after 2021. The then current population will gradually dwindle down over the next decade or so until the last one beaches itself, the remains of which are hopefully preserved in a museum.
jagraham
Eyad89 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Going to Europe or most of Africa it's fuel burn per seat is actually less than the A350.
I really doubt that, unless you are including the A339 cheaper purchase costs in the per seat calculations.
Airbus said that up to 2 hours, the A333 is most efficient. Between 2 and 4 hours, the A339 is most efficient. 5 hours and beyond is the domain of the A350. This appears to be weight related, specifically what it takes to get the plane up to cruise altitude. The A333 being lightest (OEW wise), then the A339, then the A359.
Also please note that the A339 has Trent 7000s, which are Trent 1000-TENs with bleed air. The core is a scaled Trent WXB core, so the SFC difference is solely the fan size difference. Only a few percent.
talonone
As an a380 fan, I can wonder: can everyone imagine an A380, twin-engine!? Let's say a Scaled up ultra-fan!?
Yeah, I know it is a dream, but heck, the aviation industry started with a dream!
The space and human stupidity are endless. Maybe the space is not... but the human stupidity for sure!
DfwRevolution
Perhaps the most stark example is LHR-AUS, which debut using a 787-8. This route overflies two alliance hubs - ORD and DFW - with virtually no detour.
I also think that the argument between Point-to-Point and Hub-to-Point is purely semantic. Go look at the marketing literature from the moment Boeing unveiled the 7E7 and touted the future for Point-to-Point. Each of these city pairs involves an airport we would conventionally describe as a hub:
"We know that people prefer to fly directly to their destination," Bair said. "The 7E7 will let more people do that. We estimate that there are more than 400 city pairs that could be served non-stop efficiently for the first time with the 7E7."
For example, airlines could provide service on the following non-stop routes: Atlanta-Athens, Newark-Rio de Janeiro, Vancouver-Munich, Washington, D.C.-Rome, San Francisco-Milan, Helsinki-Shanghai, Paris-Minneapolis, Dubai-Taipei, London-Fukuoka, Munich-Singapore.
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2003-06-16 ... Dreamliner
Whether a route like LHR-PIT is P2P or H2P is inconsequential.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
GEUltraFan9XGTF
talonone wrote:
You mean the Boeing double decker composite twin that will replace the 779?
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
compensateme
Stitch wrote:
Airbus made at least two sales calls on the 380 to MSP. Here's an article on one:
https://www.twincities.com/2007/11/27/a ... reluctant/
We don't care what your next flight is.
DarkKnight5
Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production
deltadc9 wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history. They will regret it.
Shame to the airline CEOs who listen to wall street and didn't buy the A380.
They listen to their fleet planners and accountants.
Listening to, and serving, the Shareholders is the CEO's primary job. Accountants and fleet planners are hired to help the CEO serve the shareholders and make them money. Running an expensive-to-operate airplane when you could use a less-expensive-to-operate airplane is a dereliction of that duty.
I suspect that responsibility to shareholders is why no US airline operates the type.
SQ317 wrote:
Not adding anything to the discussion, but a terrible shame for passengers. I'm not interested in the A vs B nonsense, the A380 is by far the most comfortable plane I've flown on in all my years. Airbus made a lot of missteps with the programme over the years and it's a pity it didn't work out.
Ditto. A remarkably quiet and comfortably riding plane.
It makes me sad that dreaming big seems to be no longer in the cards for aviation.
Just about the most gobsmacking thread in a.net history!
It's rather late in the British Isles so I'm off to bed, but will add my thoughts to the throng tomorrow.
Meanwhile...have to say that the surprise is that there's "only" 500+ comments in a 24 hour period
Last edited by TheLion on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
musman9853 wrote:
dont forget the can airbus restart a380 production threads!
Where will they store the tooling?
osiris30 wrote:
For anyone not around at the time, you won't remember that the 380 was basically launched with a lot of hubris and wang-waving. It was never REALLY about the business case in my eyes. It was about proving Airbus could build it and have the 'biggest'. Well, congrats to those that were responsible; you built the biggest passenger AC ever, with quite possibly the largest financial failure of an aircraft (in hard $) as well. 2 for 1!
In summary, if you like a healthy Airbus, there is a LOT of good about this cancellation. I like a healthy Airbus, and a healthy Boeing. That is what will drive forward technology and fuel savings and hopefully a little pax comfort thrown in.
ikramerica wrote:
I'm from the airnet previous generation, where discussions were more informed. An OG as the kids say. The forums (searchable) go back to 2005, but the discussion didn't start then. A lot of data and research was presented back then. There was no Twitter for instant comments.
I don't gamble. I come to conclusions based on knowledge. Even I overestimated the demand, but in 2005 nobody could quite fathom the depths of the global recession that was on the horizon, nor the delays Airbus would face due to CAD problems. An on time A380 during a normal boom bust cycle might have sold 400. Maybe.
But that's the problem with building the biggest of something. Any economic hiccups, and the biggest/most expensive things are the hardest to continue to justify.
Indeed. I kept pointing out that the first thing sent to the desert during the economic hiccups was the biggest / most expensive plane. Seemed people just didn't want to hear it.
Speaking of OG and data, here's how Airbus was viewing the A380 program circa 2006, including retrospective:
Ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=575919&start=100#p8658141
They were still looking forward to delivering 741 A380s by 2021.
Turns out they were off by a factor of three.
They were looking forward to an internal rate of return of 13%.
Looks like they were off by a good 13% or so.
By their own accounting, EUR 12.5B invested, without considering what others spent (engine and other vendors, regional governments, airports, etc).
That's a big swing and a big miss.
Last edited by Revelation on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
precure787
bigjku wrote:
smartplane wrote:
precure787 wrote:
Emirates have stated that they'd retire the A380s 12 years after each unit was delivered. With that in mind, Emirates would retire their last A380 in 2033 (predicted). At least the 747s would still be flying when all A380s are retired from service (although the former would continue as a freighter, including the 747-8BCF). That being said, there will be no A380 P2F.
But now is now.
They still have undelivered A380's to finance, and keep faith with existing leasors.
My bet is they will add 2-3 years to existing A380's (except early builds), and in return, leasors will soften their end of lease conditions and payments.
It makes sense for everyone to cooperate on this. The value of the returned planes will be mostly spare parts and the biggest spare parts user will be EK. I would imagine they would like to keep 40-60 running as long as possible.
I think it's likely that EK would be the longest A380 operator. NH was the last airline that have placed orders for the A380, but would likely retire those superjumbos shortly before EK retired their last A380. Additionally, Japan's declining population, as well as the bullet train (Shinkansen) competition on domestic routes, would've meant that VLAs are economically unviable in the Japanese airline market. JAL retired their 747s in 2011 as part of bankruptcy restructuring, while ANA retired theirs on March 2014.
Edward Zen/Precure 787
PC12Fan
Finn350 wrote:
In 2000 Boeing forecast that there would be 1,010 deliveries of the 747/A3XX aircraft during 2000-2019.
Source, p. 45 http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2000.pdf
It seems Boeing grossly overestimated VLA demand for this time period.
With all due respect, so did Airbus. As both sides now know, bigger isn't always better.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
JustSomeDood
Both did, but A's forecasts were much worse off (1735 deliveries of 400+seaters vs 1010), and more importantly, was likely used as justification for designing a clean-sheet VLA so large and with capacity for larger stretches. Boeing stop differentiating seat counts above 400 seats in their forecast, implying larger seat categories were still insignificant.
Despite the fact that Airbus forecasters have reduced their
projections of long-term passenger traffic growth by one-tenth of a
percentage point, the 575 500-seaters, 404 600-seaters, 223 800-
seaters and 33 1,000-seaters for which a need is forecast in twenty
years' time represent a slight increase compared with last year's
GMF. (Note that the maximum exit-limited seat count in a nine-
door A3XX is 990 seats.)
IslandRob
Additionally, Japan's declining population, as well as the bullet train (Shinkansen) competition on domestic routes, would've meant that VLAs are economically unviable in the Japanese airline market.
As good as the Shinkansen trains are, I don't think there's any plan to extend service to Honolulu, which is where ANA plans to send their A380s. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
juliuswong
juliuswong wrote:
Five years down the road, we will have some newbies posting "Why didn't A380 sell well?" "Would a stretch A380 make it more viable?" "Would A380 survived without EK large order? " "Why only three A380 for ANA? "..
God bless us all.
Lol, yes, that too. Maybe in next ten years, next round of mass movement of humans, or a major shift in megalopolis, we shall see the need of A380 again.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
MSPSXMFLIER
BlueSky1976 wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Who would've thought the 747-8 would outlive the 380. Ha!
A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.
Airbus built the biggest jet, so what? It sounds rather much like a pyrrhic victory. Airbus fell way short of the number of jets they said would likely be built, which I believe was stated to be around 700. An article I read gave the final number of aircraft to be built as 313. Making the announcement of the end of the A380 line is a bitter pill for them to swallow. It was a gamble that never paid off for Airbus, while just the opposite occurred for Boeing and their Dreamliner program. It will be very interesting to see what the new Airbus management team does from this point onward.
par13del
What I find interesting about the numbers is that in spite of the delays, changes to production infrastructure they still managed to maintain the cash break even number of 250...
morrisond
What are they going to do with the Factories? That is the biggest question now.
Do they need the space to expand A350 production or are the existing facilities big enough to go up to rate 14 or higher?
Maybe relocate the British wing factories when Brexit finishes?
Waterbomber2
lightsaber wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
flee wrote:
As Airbus have found out, even firm contracted orders can disappear. This is quite worrying because until the aircraft are delivered and paid for, we cannot assume their orders are really firm.
Expect Airbus (and most likely Boeing) to start making escape clause much harder once the order is firmed up (if it's not already done). Fool me once... right?
The stricter the clauses, the more an airline waits to firm other contracts before signing. We should take a step back and realize why EK and EY were given the terms they we're.
If terms become stricter, small airlines will place small near term orders. The flexibility was to have airlines commit to longer term orders which means a larger sale.
EY and EK kept to their 'firm' orders for the A333 and 77W. For the A346, Airbus was in violation of contract, yet EK took all A345 and EY all A345/A346.
EY took all firm A380. During a downturn, both Boeing and Airbus offered less firm sales to EK and EY to keep their lines going.
Most of today's firm orders in the 1980s would be called options. From what I see, today's firm orders cost about the same (as a percentage of Airframe sales price). For the early payments are for risk on long lead items contracts.
Today vendors receive a guarantee of 2.5 years of orders at the current production, unless a ramp down contract is signed. Hence why I believe 2019, 2020, and 50% of 2021 we're already committed to for the A380. So Airbus has to buy those parts. In return,. parts are discounted 20% or more by vendors.
I'll give an engine example. I know coffee a bucket of parts for the CFM-56 for say (I'm altering the numbers to not violate an NDA):
1. Cost to CFM to make an engine:. $100,000
2. Cost for vendors to make: $104,000
3. Cost for vendor to overhaul: $30,000
4. Fee charged large airlines (best discounts) to overhaul: $90,000. Typically two overhauls per part or $116,000 profit off $280,000 in sales.
5. Cost if sold as spare parts:. $200,000.
6. Cost CFM charges for spare parts:. $300,000
The issue with EK is many parts do not need overhaul during their ownership or maybe one engine overhaul.
Also remember economies of scale. With today's automation, setting up for 2x the production run means that parts cost 87% as much (each). Now I intentionally picked an example where the economy of scale clauses in the contracts overshot the production savings. But parts still bought in quantity (quantity defined as 50+ per year) are sold at the peak or near peak discounts. So the JT8D/MD-80 vendors were held to pricing until, IIRC, about 2014 when AA declined to renew the service contracts.
The reality is automation only rewards volume. To achieve volume, airframers must sell at risk and take substantial write downs in bad recessions due to vendor penalties.
By taking risk on the A320NEO, Airbus has had huge success. Same with the 737 MAX. CFM had to lean forward on production costs to keep the exclusive. Without not so firm sales, neither would be where they are now. Same with the A380, 77W, A330, 787, and A350.
Firming penalty clauses cuts both ways. The 787 would have bankrupted Boeing on old school clauses. The delays on the A350 wouldn't have been allowed and the A330NEO would have come early instead of the A350 XWB.
Hopefully I've given an insight. E.g., old school clauses would have had EK order maybe 6 A380. Would they have? They would have been handed over dirt cheap due to all the delay penalties. EK would have ordered in small batches. Small enough in 2009, Airbus would have faced a shut the line down decision.
Quoting from the other thread.
I think that Airbus is going about too loosely with the term firm order.
Let's remember that they had Skymark liquidated over non-compliance with a firm order, for aircraft that they ended up placing with another airline, EK.
For EY and EK they bend over backwards. I think that cancellation cost and terms of contracts should be reported so that the market knows what kind of conditions the orders are placed under.
I think that reality is setting in with the consequences of this ridiculous move by the amateur management at Airbus.
Airbus now practically has no widebodies to sell except the A330neo, until 2026.
The A330neo's backlog is shaky to say the least. One can assume that EK can walk away as they please again. Air Asia, I'll believe it when I see the dozens of A330neo in their livery.
Next year, they might as well announce the closure of the A330neo line by 2023 so everybody ar Airbus can get a much needed long holiday.
Thomas Enders cleaning up the line-up for his successor seems the only plausible motivation to end production and i a ridiculous justification.
A clear case of executives imagining to be more than the products they sell. The A380 is the product of sweat, tears, pain, overtime, stress, hard work and billions of investor money. A change of executives is being used as reason to shut down one of the most amazing aircraft programs in history.
Why wait? Fire Enders today.
EK wants to cancel?
No more takers?
Ok, suspend the production and follow the evolution of the market and technology. This is what Boeing has done with the B747, succesfully.
In 2025 if new technology makes it possible to make a twin out of the A380 and midsize widebodies can't keep up with demand, you have the option to resume production.
Ending production is a big mistake.
Revelation wrote:
Ref: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... 0#p8658141
Or the projections were correct and the sales department did a poor job.
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Fanboys are funny.
Pray tell, who would be the buyers?
Airbus is now pretty much entirely depended on the 320, 330, and 350 (A220 to a lesser extent). This has been the case for a few years, ending the 380 just formalized the status quo.
Boeing has the 737MAX, the 777X, the 787, the 797/MOM project.
I'm heavily interested in seeing what the next thing Airbus comes out with will be. They will probably be taking the next few years slowly to recoup their losses and adjust for Brexit.
Whalejet wrote:
Boeing is at least a year away from even announcing the 797 and we have no idea what Airbus is cooking up. At the moment, it's pretty much as close to a dead heat as it's possible for any duopoly to get.
Airbus has taken the first step into 'what's next land', by cutting the losses of the 380 and freeing up capital and resources. I would be completely stunned if they didn't have a few all new MOM concepts of their own kicking around backstage...besides any 321 mods they are planning.
JoeCanuck wrote:
I don't believe Airbus should be pursuing a clean sheet MOM counter. Maybe as derivatives of the A321. But in the longer term, they could focus on the A220s growth potential to replace the A320, and a clean sheet A321 replacement centred around the 200-250 (max) limit. A replacement for the A330neo might be required though, but with similar capabilities to the 787-8/9.
N328KF
I hate to be harsh, but this and other posts suggest a fragile grasp on supply chain management. A large-scale systems integration program (whatever the category - Air, ships, locomotives, phones) requires a unique skill set, time, and money. You want to produce a new mega turbo flying widget? At least a couple years. Those parts come from suppliers, which have to manage their own supply chains. What if the original suppliers are out of business? Might not be a problem with GE, Honeywell etc. (who are not likely going anywhere), but THEIR suppliers might vanish, or the woman who knows how to best assemble wing subassembly part THX-1138 may have been pensioned off because she was made redundant after the last A380 wing was made in 2020 (or more than 5 years prior.) Or do you intend to pull a Ted Williams, freeze it, and thaw/revive when money is better? Because things will change and cause the corpse to deteriorate on you in the meantime.
The other thing is that the A380 was the unfortunate victim of being designed just before a generation change in aviation technology. Oh, sure, it had GLARE and some composites, but shortly after the A380 was designed, we saw massive upheavals in technology. I won't say for certain, but I will hazard a guess that had the A380 been a few years later, it would have been far lighter (better SFC is a given), though that does nothing for being able to fill it.
"In the age of information, ignorance is a choice."
-Donny Miller
EAARbrat
Reminds me of another pre-EU boondoggle the Concorde.
They are both awesome aircraft but ultimately more vanity and pride then realistic endeavors. Atleast Airbus matched the L1011 volume which is impressive considering the monstrosity the A380is but its mostly a function of oil money.
AB4,6 318 319 320 321 333 342 B703 712 721 722 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 741 742 74D 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 CR2 7 9 10 D91 93 94 95 101 E135 145 170 190 L10 M80 81 82 83 87 88 M90 Q400
AA AC AF AR CO CL DL EA F9 KE LH NW N7 PA TW WN UA
Erebus wrote:
The beauty of picking up the CSeries, is that it's a finished project. The tough part is done and a simple stretch, (should they want to do that), is built in. Airbus has plenty of experience with stretches so that wouldn't be much for them to work out.
At the moment, Airbus has no all new projects on the board. It makes a lot of sense to me that they are looking at ALL options for the MOM including all new, 321 upgrades or both.
Will Boeing end 747-8 production?
UA857 wrote:
As long as the freighters sells - no.
DfwRevolution wrote:
And which flies today with a B772. You know, a big dumb 'inefficient' aluminium tube designed in the 1990s before the P2P hype debuted.
For example, airlines could provide service on the following non-stop routes: Atlanta-Athens, Newark-Rio de Janeiro, Vancouver-Munich, Washington, D.C.-Rome, San Francisco-Milan, Helsinki-Shanghai, Paris-Minneapolis, Dubai-Taipei, London-Fukuoka, Munich-Singapore.[/i]
Just from a first glance, CAL was flying Taipei-Dubai in 1983 with the A300! Alitalia has indeed launched Dulles to Rome with... the A332. Surely impossible per Boeing. I'm sure I could work through that list and find many other existing services that were operating long before the 787 was a notion.
Look, it's all PR and spin. The 787 was more efficient than its predecessors but in general hasn't been used any differently.
ELBOB wrote:
You forget one big difference, with the revolutionary 787 airlines make money serving those routes, in the past they did not.
The 747-8 Intercontinental production was stopped about two years ago and they already write off the costs related to that version.
There are still some 747-8F to deliver. How long the freighter version's production will continue depends much on future orders. This said, 747-8 freighter has unique features that could potentially keep it on production for a long time, albeit with at a slow rate.
jeffrey0032j
And then September 11 occurred, and they quickly changed the product offering by cancelling the Sonic Cruiser and putting the 747 on the backburner. Shortly after, the 77W entered into service and the 787 is launched, by then it was clear that the future was to be twins. All this while Airbus was still building the European dream plane that gone wrong, and they were still marketing their 4 Engines 4 Long Haul 340NG even when the 77W came about.
The 787 has been instrumental in getting the LHR-AUS get to where it is now. It was a route that didn't work in the past due to demand and lack of efficient planes. The 787 enabled BA to enter markets such as AUS, and over time, build up the demand (through publicity and other methods and simply being there and known), upgauged it to the 772. This is in fact a perfect example of how the 787 has helped airlines grow new routes.
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Well, they didn't change market outlook too quickly. Here is the 2002 outlook:
http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2002.pdf
Page 29, they changed number of VLA deliveries in 20-year period to 944 from 1,010 two years earlier.
On a side note, ATC controllers at airports with A380 service would probably be rejoicing with this news, the issue of wake turbulence and separation from the A380s will eventually not be an issue.
[The 747-8F was the launch aircraft. One that is still in production, recently got orders and as the replacement cycle hits, could get more. The 8i was second, a sort of "we're already halfway there" throw in to the ring. The 8i was an total flop.
Sorry, you have that wrong. When launched, Boeing expected the freighter to represent just 25% of sales. They saw the passenger version outselling freighters 3 to 1. You could argue they were as wrong as Airbus.
They changed it quickly enough to scrap the planned 747X at the time and kicked the can down the road, while the same market conditions didn't deter A from pressing on with the A380.
scbriml wrote:
Nah, same mistake but a lot smaller in magnitude, they didn't pour in the sort of money that Airbus did. Most of the R&D money was spent on the 787 by then.
EAARbrat wrote:
You will remember that the USA also spent a lot of money on SST type aircraft development and research, and got nothing for it. No actual planes, just some mockups, pretty scale models and renderings. And no experience.
Concorde was realistic at the time of development. The rest of the world seemed to agree and rushed to do their own bigger and better versions. It at least was built with realistic targets in mind. And it delivered an enormous amount of knowledge and experience that was surely invaluable for later Airbus planes.
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text:
Sanjay Dutt Starts Shooting for KGF-2
By Editorial On Sep 25, 2019
Sanjay Dutt, who is making his debut in Sandalwood with KGF: Chapter 2, has kick-started the shoot of the film with entire cast and crew.
The film marks first-ever negative character from Sanjay Dutt after a gap of seven years. The actor is set to enact the role of Adheera, brother of Suryavardhan, who illegally built the gold mining empire.
In the first installment of the film, Suryavardhan overlooked Adheera as his heir of the empire to his son Garuda. Apparently, Garuda devised a plan to kill Adheera and became successful in his mission, but there seems to be a twist to the story as the latter is still alive.
The official handle of Hombale Films dropped the deeds on the shooting. They tweeted a picture with caption, "Our #Adheera @duttsanjay joins the sets of #KGFChapter2! @prashanth_neel @TheNameIsYash @SrinidhiShetty @bhuvangowda84 @BasrurRavi @VKiragandur @Karthik1423 @hombalefilms @excelmovies @VaaraahiCC"
Kolar Gold Field or KGF is a two-part series exploring the story of an ambitious man (Yash), who wants to conquer the world by becoming the most powerful and rich person in the world. While the first instalment had showcased Rocky's journey since childhood and how he eliminated Garuda, the second part is expected to be around the deadly clash between the hero and Adheera.
Prashanth Neel-directed movie is produced by Hombale Films. KGF: Chapter 2 will see the light of the day in April 2020.
Odhani From Made In China Is Trending With 10 Million Hits
Sahil Rohira awarded as the Young Emerging Photographer of the Year award by actress Preity Zinta at GGA, 2019
Naomi Watts Starrer The Desperate Hour Trailer Is Out
Prime Video Announces Premiere Date for the Highly Anticipated Second Season of the…
I Don't Think I Can Survive In Bigg Boss House Says Shraddha Arya
Amazon Prime Video unveils the trailer for Gehraiyaan


At the Fed's June meeting, Mr. Powell and his allies pressed Mr. Bernanke to reinforce the message.
Mr. Powell acknowledged that the Fed was facing a challenge in explaining its plans. Economic growth had repeatedly fallen short of the Fed's expectations and millions of Americans remained out of work. Mr. Bernanke would need to explain why the Fed thought the economy needed less help.
But he expressed confidence in Mr. Bernanke. "Much rests on the shoulders of the Great Communicator," he said, referring to the chairman. Then he compared Mr. Bernanke to LeBron James.
Mr. Bernanke flubbed his lines at the post-meeting news conference, leaving investors confused about the Fed's intentions. Asset prices reacted as if the Fed was significantly reducing its stimulus plans. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose by more than a percentage point over the summer.
The Fed finally announced it would begin to taper its bond purchases in December 2013.
The market's reaction convinced Fed officials, including Mr. Powell, that the Fed should handle its balance sheet differently from its benchmark interest rate. When the Fed began to reduce its bond holdings in 2017, it published a detailed timetable for those reductions, and it has stayed on schedule.
But investors increasingly are divided on the wisdom of that approach. Some see little evidence the Fed's plodding approach is disrupting financial markets. Others say the Fed, despite moving slowly and predictably, is still making waves.


text:
Q: Where can I find a template for UITableViewCell icons? I know this isn't really a programming question, but I'm looking for a PSD template (or similar) to create UITableViewCell icon images that look like the ones in the Settings app... So basically the ones that look like mini-app icons.
Any ideas please? Thanks!

A: Try this one.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Could Data Science Have Saved Greece?
Whatever the right solution is for the current Greek crisis, many observers believe that the problems could have been avoided if Greece had not joined the Euro in the first place.
It is no secret that Greece struggled to meet the official criteria for Euro entry. It was revealed in 2004 that the official Greek deficit figures used to justify accession were incorrect, and the Greek authorities continued to submit frequently-revised statistics to the EU for the next decade. The final official figures show that country's annual budget deficit has never met the Eurozone's 3% limit.
Data science may have helped expose the problems earlier. A research paper published in 2011 called Fact and Fiction in EU-Governmental Economic Data applied Benford's Law to a decade of economic data from 27 EU states.
Benford's Law says that the first digit of certain sets of real-world numbers are not evenly distributed — for example, that there will be six times as many numbers starting with the digit "1" as with the digit "9". (For math fans, here's a good explanation of why this might happen: basically, a lot of nature shows exponential and logarithmic behavior).
Financial auditors had already successfully used Benford's law as part of their fraud detection processes, and the researchers wanted to determine whether it could also be applied to economic data.
For each country, they calculated the difference between the reported values and what would have been expected from Benford's Law:
The country with the greatest deviation was Greece, and the researchers concluded that this can be regarded as evidence for the effectiveness of Benford's law in the detection of irregularities and manipulations in macroeconomic data.
So could Data Science and Benford's Law have helped head off the crisis, by keeping Greece out of the Euro? Probably not. It was apparently an open secret among EU officials that the numbers for Greece were dubious, and it was ultimately Germany and France who first officially broke the 3% budget deficit rule.
Using Benford's Law may have revealed the problems earlier and more publicly, but Greece's entry into the Euro was ultimately the result of political decisions rather than economic theory.
There's still scope for using Benford's Law to help with any future recovery, though — for example, to help Greek governments crack down on fraudulent tax returns!
Sources and links:
Khan Academy The Mysteries of Benford's Law
Dr Ben Goldacre's Bad Science Blog
BBC: How Magic Made Greek Debt Disappear Before It Joined The Euro
Bloomberg.com: Greece Cheated To Join The Euro
The Economist: Greece and The Euro — Was it Worth It?
Europe's Worst Kept Secret
Analytics, Benford's Law, Big Data, Data Science, Euro, Greece, Greek Crisis, Grexit
3 responses to "Could Data Science Have Saved Greece?"
Anna Krystalli
Interesting analysis but ultimately of limited utility. I for one will always be grateful for growing up in a Greece that was part of Europe and will always advocate for it to stay in. Perhaps a far more interesting and useful article would be about the potential of data science to help Greece and other governments hit badly by the crisis to redesign policy, institutions and services.
Data Science Blogs | Asundo
[…] timoelliott […]
Could Data Science Have Prevented The Greek Crisis? | iTelNews
[…] [This post originally appeared in the Business Analytics Blog] […]


text:
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Norton Rose Fulbright | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Herbert H. Finn
Greenberg Traurig, LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Andrew L. Goldstein
Freeborn & Peters LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Gregory S. Grossman
Cooley LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Marcelo Halpern
Perkins Coie LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Nathan J. Hole
Loeb & Loeb LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Kirkland & Ellis LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Jason Kunze
Nixon Peabody LLP | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Jordan Arnot Leahey
Partridge Partners | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Aaron H. Lorber
William L. Niro
Aronberg Goldgehn Davis & Garmisa | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Steven H. Shapiro
Duggan Bertsch, LLC | Serving Evanston, IL (Chicago, IL)
Thomas J. Smedinghoff
Law Office of Thomas J. Smedinghoff | Serving Evanston, IL (River Forest, IL)
Marc H. Trachtenberg
Nearby cities: Chicago River Forest
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Hull City vs Chelsea live streaming: Watch Premier League (EPL) on TV, online
Chelsea need a victory to get back on course in the Premier League
By : Deepak Vikraman
Antonio Conte will hope his Chelsea players put on a strong performance against Hull CityReuters
Sort out that defence and let Diego Costa score the goals – that will be the plan for Chelsea when they face Hull City in the Premier League on Saturday. After a bright start to the season, it has all gone awry for the Blues, who are winless in their last three EPL games, making this match against Hull one that they really need to win.
Antonio Conte, due to injuries, lack of confidence and age, has struggled to put a proper defence together, with the manner in which Chelsea were cut apart by Arsenal last weekend only highlighting the deficiencies in this team.
There obviously is no magic spell to suddenly bring Chelsea back to the levels of two seasons ago, and Conte will, no doubt, need time to try and instil some confidence and discipline into the backline.
"It's never good when you lose two games," Conte, talking about the defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal, said. "But I also think in these two games we learnt a lot of important things and we must work very hard to recover.
"It's important not to forget the past, because the past is very clear. We finished 10th last season and that means there were problems. Now, with great work and hard work we are trying to sort the situation; me, the players and the club together.
"We don't have a magic wand to change the situation in a few months. We must work hard together and we are doing this. We must understand that only through hard work can we close the gap. I think we faced two very strong teams who are at the top and we have a lot to improve."
That improvement will have to come without John Terry for this match, with the captain still not ready to play due to an ankle injury. Hull will hope that the absence of Terry gives them a better chance to find a way through the defence.
"We have to be ourselves," Hull manager Mike Phelan, whose side are also coming off heavy defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal, said. "We have to do our job defensively as a team and we have to have that mentality of taking the pressure when the pressure is on us.
"We have to manage the game and we also have to express ourselves to show our identity."
India: TV: Star Sports 4 and Star Sports select HD1. Live Streaming: Hotstar.
UK: Radio: BBC Radio 5 Live.
USA: TV: NBCSN. Live Streaming: NBC live.
Australia: TV: Optus Sport. Live Streaming: Optus Online.
Canada: TV: Sportsnet World. Live Streaming: Watch Sportsnet.
Germany: DAZN.
Middle East, Thailand and North Africa: Bein Sports Arabia 11. Live Streaming: Bein Sports Connect.
China: Guangdong Sports.
Malaysia: TV: Astro SuperSport3.
Moyes: Michail Antonio dropped against Crystal Palace for 'disciplinary reasons'


By the early 1920s, German director Ernst Lubitsch had established a reputation as a master of two genres—grand historical epics and sparkling comedies. American audiences happily paid to see his films as well, and superstar Mary Pickford, eager to leave behind little girl roles for sophisticated adult ones, invited Lubitsch to direct her in Hollywood. With the postwar German economy in disarray and the American-funded studio where Lubitsch had his production company shut down, he accepted Pickford's offer and left Germany in late 1922. The director and star were not a good match, but their 1923 film Rosita did well enough at the box office that the newly-incorporated Warner Bros. studio, seeing its chance to enter the big leagues with the help of a prestigious European director, offered the recent émigré a contract. He signed a six-film, three-year deal that gave him unprecedented control, including provisions for his own production unit. In 1926, after four Warner pictures (plus one loan-out to Paramount) and escalating tensions with head of production Jack Warner, Lubitsch made what turned out to be his final film for the studio, So This Is Paris.
None of the plaudits could salvage the director's relationship with Warner Bros., however. Even before beginning So This Is Paris, Lubitsch, who was used to working without executive supervision and annoyed by Jack Warner's meddling, had tried unsuccessfully to buy out his contract. Now, with So This Is Paris completed, he owed the studio one final film, but his battles with Jack Warner continued and they agreed to part ways. Now much in demand, Lubitsch had no problem negotiating new deals with both Paramount and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.


Huge range of Japanese foods, GREAT atmosphere, reasonable prices though serves are smaller than your average size.
Delicious food, amazing green tea lattes and an authentic Japanese atmosphere. Love this place!
Fun night out with a group of friends.
All that needs to be said - they serve fried cheese.


Police are appealing for information following an assault on a 16 year-old girl in St Neots.
The attack happened outside the Rowley Arts Centre in Huntingdon Street on Friday, January 29 at around 8pm.
Officers are conducting a thorough investigation and are confident more people witnessed the assault.
Police are asking anyone with information about the incident to call 101, quoting CF0043130116 or call Crimestoppers, anonymously, on 0800 555 111.


Is It Time to Buy Time Inc (TIME)?
Time Inc (NYSE:TIME) investors should be aware of an increase in hedge fund interest of late. TIME was in 21 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of September. There were 18 hedge funds in our database with TIME holdings at the end of the previous quarter. The level and the change in hedge fund popularity aren't the only variables you need to analyze to decipher hedge funds' perspectives. A stock may witness a boost in popularity but it may still be less popular than similarly priced stocks. That's why at the end of this article we will examine companies such as Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA), TherapeuticsMD Inc (OTC:TXMD), and GNC Holdings Inc (NYSE:GNC) to gather more data points.
Heading into the fourth quarter of 2016, a total of 21 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were long this stock, a 17% increase from the previous quarter. Hedge fund ownership has been volatile, over the past few quarters, though within a relatively narrow range. With hedge funds' capital changing hands, there exists a few notable hedge fund managers who were upping their stakes meaningfully (or already accumulated large positions).
According to publicly available hedge fund and institutional investor holdings data compiled by Insider Monkey, Barry Rosenstein's JANA Partners has the number one position in Time Inc (NYSE:TIME), worth close to $72.4 million, corresponding to 1.3% of its total 13F portfolio. On JANA Partners' heels is Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies, with an $18.2 million position. Remaining peers that hold long positions consist of David Forster and Peter Wilton's IBIS Capital Partners, Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors and Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group.
Have Hedge Funds Found A Winner In New Relic Inc (NEWR)? Is American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) The Right Pick For Your Portfolio? Mitel Networks Corp (MITL): 73% Surge in Hedge Fund Ownership Should You Follow Hedge Funds Out Of ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (MT)? Hedge Funds Are Powering Up On Nextera Energy Partners LP (NEP) Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) A Good Stock To Buy?