text:
Links 8/22/15
Posted on August 22, 2015 by Yves Smith
Depraved Masochist Enjoys Following The News Onion
Why Istanbul Should Be Called Catstantinople Wall Street Journal
Mexico says it is committed to reducing sea turtle deaths Associated Press (furzy mouse)
Former President Jimmy Carter to be treated for brain cancer Reuters
Bean Counters to the Rescue Foreign Affairs (furzy mouse)
Profit-seeking, confidential rebates driving up cost of generic drugs Summer Academy (Dr. Kevin)
Mr. Market Has a Sad
The Chinese model is nearing its end George Magnus, Financial Times (Scott)
If You're Not Pissing Your Pants In Fear Over China, You're Not Scared Enough: Jim Chanos Dealbreaker
Lew: We're monitoring China's currency policy CNBC
VIX 'Fear Index' more than doubles on week, biggest weekly jump ever MarketWatch
Panic sets in, not over yet: Bob Doll CNBC
'Hike Havoc': Can the Fed Ignore This Market Rout? Fiscal Times. The stock market was never on the Fed's beat until Greenspan's personal obsession with it made it so.
How would a stock price crash affect us? Fabius Maximus (furzy mouse)
The Fed is at risk of repeating one of the biggest mistakes in the history of the US economy Business Insider
A Fine Fed Mess Wall Street Journal. OMG, a sane WSJ editorial!
Productivity paradox deepens Fed rate dilemma Gillian Tett, Financial Times
Fed policy is bankrupt Scott Summer
China Tests Its Most Dangerous Nuclear Weapon of All Time National Interest
Euro Area Banks Remain Vulnerable Bruegel
Grexit?
Somersaulting Alexis Tsipras prepares next trick Financial Times
Greece is for sale – and everything must go Open Democracy
Big Brother is Watching You Watch
Ashley Madison founder emails leaked in new data dump Reuters (EM)
Extortionists Target Ashley Madison Users Brian Krebs. As we predicted…
Spotify Clears Up Its Controversial Privacy Policy Wired (Robert M). Lists policies of some other majors services. And Wired sorta defends practices that I find invasive, "because social".
Imperial Collapse
America: A Land Where Justice Is Absent Paul Craig Roberts (RR)
California's Obamacare exchange criticized for not fixing enrollment, tax errors Los Angeles Times. Lambert: "Nobody could have predicted…."
Democratic Blues: Barack Obama will leave his party in its worst shape since the Great Depression—even if Hillary wins Politico. Friday cover story.
Bernie Sanders To Introduce Legislation Abolishing Private Prisons When Congress Reconvenes ThinkProgress
Donald Trump Just Stopped Being Funny Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone (resilc)
Why is Donald Trump holding a massive pep rally in Mobile, Ala.? Washington Post
Trump Thinks Alabama Is Key to Winning the GOP Nomination Bloomberg. Someone needs to inform him that Southerners do not like New Yorkers.
For once, Donald Trump drops the mic Washington Post. So much for that "massive pep rally"
Bergdahl lawyer slams candidate Trump over 'traitor' comments Reuters (EM)
Wildfires rage in U.S. Northwest, army and foreign crews called in Reuters (EM)
Nestle Pays Only $524 to Extract 27,000,000 Gallons of California Drinking Water AntiMedia (EM)
Drought Watch: Hey Bud, This Water's for You! FOX 11 LA KTTV. EM: "Compared to Nestle, A-B is a model citizen re. water usage. I might even be tempted to buy some Budweiser by way of 'thanks!', except that it's still what my late father referred to as a 'pisswater lager'."
Ranger school success reflects U.S. military's opening to women Reuters. EM: "I would applaud this, but for the fact that it's part of our ongoing national moar warmongering program."
Black Injustice Tipping Point
Black Lives Matters activists outline policy goals BBC
Black teen killed by St. Louis police shot in back-autopsy Reuters (EM)
The Real Demographic Challenge Adair Turner, Project Syndicate. Important section on why aging populations are no economic threat, even to pensions.
Antidote du jour (@SWildlifepics via Lambert):
See yesterday's Links and Antidote du Jour here.
This entry was posted in Links on August 22, 2015 by Yves Smith.
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Skippy August 22, 2015 at 7:19 am
Per a sociopolitical FB page question…
"What do you call a woman who finishes Ranger School? A Ranger. #army "
My response – Wayward Septic "What do you call a woman who finishes Ranger School? – a proficient patrol team member.
August 20 at 5:45pm · Like · 6
Skippy… since Rogers, Rangers are defined by proficiency, both as individuals and small opt activity's…. nothing more than "well skilled" tradesmen…
craazyman August 22, 2015 at 8:48 am
"A girlyman!"
How about your equal if not better.
2-dimensional better/worse doesn't work in n-dimensional characterization by caricature analysis.
A girlyman in this context is a female with very macho (by stereotypical definitions) tendencies. it's inarguable!
Also She could probably kick my butt.
Um… no…. it has negative connotations which supersede your gobbledygook analysis.
abynormal August 22, 2015 at 9:47 am
First Female Army Ranger Brags About Her Veiny, Seven-Inch Clitoris
FORT BENNING — The first woman in history to graduate from Army Ranger School, arguably the most grueling, toughest training in the U.S. military, and thus the world, has just pinned on her Ranger tab — and she is letting the world know how proud she is of her very large clitoris.
Fellow Ranger School graduates had high praise for O'Keefe.
"I was really impressed with the way she performed in the SERE portion," said Staff Sgt. Juan Gonzalez, an artilleryman from 3-319th Field Artillery. "She lasted longer than any of us, because when the instructors got close with their tracker dogs, Ranger O'Keefe covered herself in period blood to hide her scent. It threw the hounds off long enough for her to slip away and last out in the woods another 12 hours before they got her."
http://www.duffelblog.com/2014/03/female-army-ranger/
"The true man wants two things: danger and play. For that reason he wants woman, as the most dangerous plaything."
…whistln in the dark here
Tho I thought the causality [Nietzsche] was juxtaposed, just some made claims to ownership regardless to reality.
abynormal August 22, 2015 at 10:27 am
really? i read it as a warning. i could see Nietzsche shaking his head..as to say somethings just can't be helped.
in my book, there's not a more insightful and equitable blogger than the Skips!…so i'm going to stand corrected/down here:
The vain.– We are like shop windows in which we are continually arranging, concealing or illuminating the supposed qualities other ascribe to us – in order to deceive ourselves.
Nietzsche's Daybreak,
craazyman August 22, 2015 at 11:20 am
wow. somebody wrote that and put it on the internet? holy smokes. even I wouldn't write something like that. there has to be a limit to insanity or it's just madness
these days in America that could almost be true though. maybe it is!
I cant believe there's this female professional fighting sport and some woman named Rhonda Rousey is evidently the champion. It must have been like this in ancient Rome at times. Empire does weird sh*t to the collective consciousness
MyLessThanPrimeBeef August 22, 2015 at 11:34 am
Empires have a way of making those with abundant Yin yearn to be more Yang.
cwaltz August 22, 2015 at 12:24 pm
I'm surprised that release was allowed by the military. It's pretty darn crude. It's disheartening to think a woman is going to encourage "the guys" to continue that vein of behavior instead of encouraging a measure of professionalism. The boys will be boys attitude is part of the problem with the military culture(and their problems with sexual abuse and harassment in a hostile environment.)
I get that she probably wants to fit in short term but I really wish there was some thought about long term(short of sending women to Thailand to teach them to kickbox with the the Thai fighters) and the message we are sending about what is and isn't appropriate talk and behavior in a work environment.
NotTimothyGeithner August 22, 2015 at 2:12 pm
No one has mentioned rampant sex assault and abuse in the military. Opening up roles is PR to distract from the real crime and recruit the next generation of victims. The soldier in the cover story might be one of the boys, but the goal is to preserve the environment not change it.
This is window dressing to calm worried parents.
James Levy August 22, 2015 at 3:27 pm
People refuse to understand that armies that lack discipline become ineffective armies. You don't have to be overly kind to know that men who get used to skirting the rules and disobeying orders will starting doing it when you don't want them to (like wandering off and plundering when they should be at their posts). Armies traditionally frown on "bad" behavior because it is bad for discipline and coherence, not because they have any interest in being politically correct or some-such right wing nonsense. We have a professional army, not a force of citizen-soldiers as we did in WWII or Vietnam. Professionals don't run around playing grab-ass and talking like clowns. These soldiers better get a grip.
I provided a link down below to support my statement. Feel free to read it.
abynormal August 22, 2015 at 8:15 pm
ranger talk like that and harder…suck it up craazy
Vatch August 22, 2015 at 8:20 pm
For those of you who are commenting seriously on this, you do know that Duffelblog is a military oriented satirical website along the lines of The Onion, don't you?
Skippy August 22, 2015 at 9:20 pm
Mythos and Lore go hand in hand as well as Exceptionalism and Paranoia… I think that's how cortex timing and head set are adjusted…
The RGR school has a few basic concepts, leadership, advanced patrol, team work, functioning whilst under nourished and exhausted for extended periods, and last but not least – pushed past all previous experiences of mental and physical challenge whilst achieving mission perimeters in a dynamic environment. That said battalion can be as every bit as hard if not more on a YoY basis, you just get more calories.
Ahhh… to spend a month in the field only to come back to billets, parachute back in and strip and clean everything [start by walking into shower with everything your own]. Bag, tag and secure all gear, head off post for a big feed and some night life. Get "A" alert only to race back to billets and be reissued the gear you just put back, complete lock down of OA, palatalize personal gear for different operational theaters [cold weather, desert, et al], endless gear checks from squad to company, marshal at hangers to board transport air craft and fly around in circles for 8hrs thinking your going to some exotic destination only to be told at the last min its just an exercise. Jump and repeat earlier de-kitting, that's the happy ending, the alternative is a 12 mile forced speed march [for those in the middle or back of the column, add a few miles due to yo yo effect].
Skippy…. The punch line is the next morning when a few wake up in camo and boots…. wondering WFT they did last night…
abynormal August 22, 2015 at 10:07 pm
mighty obvious by the pop up for daily jokes.
Comedy is simply a funny way of being serious.
cwaltz August 23, 2015 at 12:43 am
Ha. I guess I have a very different sense of humor since I was one of the lucky females who got integrated on a ship once upon a time back when the Navy was told to up the percentages of females on ships and start integrating us on combat ships.
craazyboy August 23, 2015 at 3:21 am
I certainly wouldn't want to go head to head with a woman that had a 7 incher.
mad as hell. August 22, 2015 at 9:21 am
Shouldn't the word "HEROS" be added to the narrative?
Sk August 22, 2015 at 9:23 am
jgordon August 22, 2015 at 11:12 am
Not just NO, but F-NO. What's with this bizarre fetish Americans have with people who are trained to kill for a living? Definitely a good indicator that American culture has entered its death spiral.
They can kill you in many ways.
Taking your job, your livelihood and giving it to a robot, because you are as cheap, can kill you, often slowly, but not infrequently quickly as well.
"…not as cheap…"
remarkabilious August 22, 2015 at 5:27 pm
Ach, der alte Brecht –
You forgot the tagline:
There are many ways to kill. One can stab a knife in your guts; take away your bread; deprive you of the cure for your illness; put you in a miserable housing; torture you to death with work; take you to war; etc. Only a few of these are prohibited in our country.
pdh August 22, 2015 at 11:55 am
People don't even to have anything to do with killing in order to become part of the death spiral. This past winter, our local Columbus (Ohio) newscasters referred to the snowplow drivers as "Snow Warriors".
MyLessThanPrimeBeef August 22, 2015 at 12:00 pm
That's a very good point.
We live in an interconnected web.
Writing software, for example, is not necessary a 'clean, green' job, if the program is used to better extract or frack.
With exponentially growing GDP, there are no green jobs individually. We are all in a not-very-green machine.
bob August 22, 2015 at 12:17 pm
They are not allowed to be heros. They are precluded from front line battle by congressional decree.
Rangers are first…unless they are woman rangers.
In my ultimate cynic world view, they will never, ever see any sort of combat. They will be put into the PR corps.
I disagree. The military is trying to adapt because they are dealing with reality. The reality is when conditions change you have to adapt.
http://www.npr.org/2013/03/25/174966070/as-qualified-men-dwindle-military-looks-for-a-few-good-women
It's also interesting to note that women have hit a point where we are also the ones graduating college in higher numbers. If they want an educated work force then they can't eliminate a pool of applicants because of gender.
You can't disagree. It's a fact. Woman are not currently allowed to be on front line combat units.
You can disagree with the policy, but that's set by the people that you then set up as positively "dealing with reality".
They are not. They have not. It's all PR. "women jump through hoops!" Yay!
Do or do not, there is no try….
cwaltz August 22, 2015 at 1:17 pm
It's semantics to say they aren't in "combat roles" when they ARE serving in war zones.
200 women have died in Iraq and Afghanisthan, in service to their country, just like their male counterparts. That's reality, To call what they did "PR" is insulting to them.
bob August 22, 2015 at 1:31 pm
It's not semantics. It's black letter law. Woman are not allowed to serve on front line teams. They are a separate class within the military, by law and statute.
I didn't call what they did PR. I said what they did will be used as PR for the continuation of the status quo.
"look we let them try out, and they earned the right to play on the team. We just can't let them play on that team"
They will, however, continue to be allowed to be targets in war zones. Winning!
Jess August 22, 2015 at 3:38 pm
Lots of ways around this. For instance, Rangers are often used as "trainers" to develop indigenous forces, but "trainers" have a nasty habit of getting caught up in actual combat.
Then there's the semantic problem of "front line" if you're in a Ranger squad that gets airdropped behind enemy lines.
wrong. the Ban against women in fight in hot zones was lifted 2013
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, along with Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, plans to announce today that the U.S. military is lifting its ban on women serving in combat, senior Pentagon officials said Wednesday. The move would open hundreds of thousands of military positions to women, said one official who spoke anonymously because Panetta had not yet made the announcement.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/01/23/women-combat-pentagon-panetta-military/1860269/
flora August 22, 2015 at 2:21 pm
bob and others,
with greatest respect, please reject the 'heros' and 'warriors' language. (unless it's a snark, of course). That language is BS and it's insidious. Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines indicate regular people (apologies, Marines) who wear the uniform. 'Hero' and 'Warrior' may be a great recruiting tool for young recruits but on the back end it helps the the country and politicians mentally evade responsibility to properly care for the badly wounded servicemen and women. (note: many servicemen and women do extraordinarily brave and heroic acts. my critique is of the PR language, not the men and women in the service. )
Katniss Everdeen August 22, 2015 at 1:01 pm
"heros" x 2.
Is this some sort of technologically innovative, gender-specific operating system reference of which I'm unaware: her – os?
Or maybe something that is more appropriate for a Grexit thread?
Just had to ask.
That really sucks. Now another set of unfortunates is roped into service for the empire on the front line. I wonder what all that glory and honor is worth compared to missing limbs and an almost guaranteed case of PTSD. I'm mentioning this as a disabled veteran of the Marines myself.
The hope is, with more women in an established institution, they can transform it, making it more feminine.
Going by the two elected female leaders, in major, Western nations (GB and Germany), we might have to wait a little longer, as Thatcher and Merkel seem to have Yang than most man.
Hilary is another who can 'out-man' most boys (and good for her, but, again, the hope is she can change our aggressive, dominating Yang institutions to be more nurturing, more cooperating, more sharing).
I'm not sure that is the hope. However, I am confused by what you mean by "more feminine." Personally, I would hope the military would create a climate that was professional and accountable( and bragging about measuring your sexual organs doesn't strike me as overly professional behavior and doesn't make me hopeful that they won't continue to sweep problems with gender integration, like harassment and rape, under the rug.)
It's one thing to have to worry about the enemy when you are in a foxhole, it's another when you have to worry about the person next to you, who is "supposed to be on your side" as well.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/us/military-sex-assault-report.html?_r=0
MLTPB August 22, 2015 at 4:07 pm
A more fem inst is a less hegemon govt.
I realize you meant in a nice way. However, I'm still raising a boy(I've already raised 2 and a daughter) and I don't want him to think things like respect, nurturing, cooperation, and the ability to share is any way shape or form just something that is girlish or feminine. It's something ALL people should strive for. ;)
ambrit August 22, 2015 at 11:45 am
I know I'm tap dancing into a minefield here….
The women successfully passed Ranger school. Good for them. Why did they enter in the first place. This is not a rhetorical question. Being somewhat of a Contrarian in my thinking, I wonder about all this obfuscation of the real differences between Women and Men.
If men were "chosen" to fulfill the "combat" roles in the society, and women were denigrated for their more "passive" and nurturing abilities, then why are some women being touted as being the "equals" of men in supposedly "mens'" tasks? Wouldn't a more sane response be to moderate and defang the male patriarchal mindset?
Instead of becoming a "better" man, which is an acquiescense to the patriarchal model of society, shouldn't women promote the values of a "better" woman?
"Why did they enter in the first place?" Most likely for the same reason their male counterparts enter that field. Combat roles can get you promoted. Promotions mean higher pay and more opportunities to advance. Money and power are pretty powerful motivators.
I personally am on board for that being "better" person or the best person possible. Then again I'm not a fan of the term "male tasks." It promotes the idea that if you have an interest in something that is nontraditionally feminine that you are less of a woman or not female in the same way other females are (and the same juxtaposition for the male half of the population that might want to be stay at home dads and nurture children or hair dress for a living.) People should be able to pursue their goals without having gender as a barrier to them(which is not the same thing as saying you should necessarily lower standards to promote gender parity if changing those standards don't make sense to readiness standards.)
" Combat roles can get you promoted. Promotions mean higher pay and more opportunities to advance."
It also never hurts to have a few high level "throw-aways" to scapegoat when things get ugly.
Here is a synopsis of the military career of FORMER Brigadier General Janis Karpinski. Pay particular attention to 2005.
1987: In 1987 she moved from the regular Army to the Army Reserve.
2003: In June 2003, during the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, Karpinski was given command of the 800th Military Police Brigade.
2003: In September 2003, Karpinski led US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on a tour of the Abu Ghraib prison to demonstrate the way it had been used by Saddam Hussein to torture his enemies.
2004: Karpinski was issued a Memorandum of Admonishment by LTG Sanchez, Commander, CJTF-7, on 17 January 2004.
2005: On April 8, 2005, Karpinski was formally relieved of command of the 800th Military Police Brigade.
2005: On May 5, 2005, President Bush approved Karpinski's demotion to Colonel from the rank of Brigadier General.
Then, of course, there are the low-level "throw-aways" like Lynndie England.
A demotion which caused her to lose a significant chunk of her pension. Lots of difference between retiring as colonel and retiring as a General.
optimader August 22, 2015 at 5:33 pm
She struck me as pretty much a dud. If she were in the private sector she would strike me as a midlevel Human "Resources" bureaucrat. Not that there isn't a long line of male peers in th military that are also duds.
As for what do you call a Female Ranger? I'd say poorly advised.
Yves Smith Post author August 22, 2015 at 4:05 pm
I hate to tell you, but the sort of gender role stereotyping you engaged in drives me nuts. If you read psychological literature "feminine" attributes are seen as negative, starting with passivity. And the idea that women are "nurturing" is another pet peeve. How about start with the fact that a lot of culturally inculcated female behavior is due to the fact that the average woman is less large and muscular than the average man, and if she pisses him off, she runs the risk she'll have the shit beaten out of her? And a lot of the acculturation of women (to be pleasing and cooperative) is based on that fact?
Matriarchal societies can be plenty hierarchical. Start with hyenas: http://www.ukessays.com/essays/sociology/the-complex-matrilineal-social-structure-of-spotted-hyenas-sociology-essay.php
i guess some posters didn't read the piece…her first assignment was to lead a platoon of rangers into Afghanistan
we better step up our game. nurturing bad@ass shouldn't be a negative attribute, and men can step up their game too. internal competition is a quality this country needs to go long on.
Emma August 22, 2015 at 9:58 pm
A great comment Yves. Thanks for providing reason in this thread! However, I'd like to point out to everyone that women warriors existed probably long before 'bon-pour-rien' men took to the battlefield anyway!
There's Artemisia I of Caria who commanded 5 battleships in the Battle of Salamis. She advised the King of Persia who not only safely watched from shore, but allegedly described her bravery (with chauvinistic aplomb…..): "My men have turned into women and my women into men!" Perhaps this explains the naval tradition of rum, sodomy and the lash?!
There were the Hittites who Pharaoh Ramses II referred to as "humty", which means "women-soldiers". There's Eurypyle who was the leader of an all-female expedition against Ninus and Babylonia.
And we can't forget the awe-inspiring Tomyris who led an army to victory against Cyrus the Great. According to Herodotus (Hdt 1.214), Tomyris told Cyrus the Great, "I warned you that I would quench your thirst for blood, and so I shall." A beautiful painting by Rubens depicts Tomyris drowning the head of dead old Cyrus in a blood-filled container after having killed him!
And the first known mention of a prosthetic limb was in 1.116.15 in the Rigveda (the Vedic Sanskrit Hymns) and refers to Queen Vishpala who lost her leg in battle, got an iron prosthesis, and then returned to the battlefield! Yet today, Hollywood provides their grand vision on the war on terror care of Iron Man……. WTF?!
Quite clearly, a woman is history's way of restoring our faith in democracy! So enough with icing the cupcakes to make the world a sweeter place for men!
It's Mega Bowl and Matriots time!
'Aux Armes' women warriors of the world!
ambrit August 22, 2015 at 11:03 pm
Well, I have set a few land mines off.
I wonder if this anger at patriarchal mind sets, (which ethos I must be projecting, to judge from the rebuttals,) isn't a projection itself. Rage at being physically coerced and degraded isn't strictly a female characteristic. The use of superior power to ensure compliance is a basic violation of an individual. Policing and warfare are organized coercions, violations. That a woman is as good, or better than a man at this is no reason for pride. The personal pride involved in performing a difficult task well we can all agree on and respect. That the task is geared towards violence toward others I cannot. I get the feeling that a lot of the present support for women in the military is an attempt at cooption. Men have been the domineering b——s long enough. Now let us trick the women into buying into the same formula. That formulation looks to be a continuation of the entire force as social determiner process. I guess I'm being a touch Utopian, and expecting that shining city on a hill to loom up out of the mists suddenly.
As for the 'nurturing' meme; I can see the truth in the woman as smaller and weaker idea, but I was under the impression that 'nurturing' had to do with raising children and socializing them. Men ideally cooperate in this process, but have an, at best, spotty record at it. Is the antidote for this situation for women to begin to be tougher and more violent than the men?
The modern age of industrialization has had one good result. Women now no longer need men to support them and the children, because of excess capacity. The distribution of the excess may be questionable, but the potential is there.
Maybe I'm clueless, (no maybe about that, alas,) but are we being tasked with the creation of a Modern Anthropological Theory?
Gore Vidal has some good essays about sexual politics, in which he makes the point that population pressure will eventually crush the Judaeo-Christian Patriarchial tradition. I wish I were as optimistic as he was.
It's actually quite funny when I hear guys argue that small stature precludes a woman from being able to fight effectively. Some of them should go to Thailand and watch the Thai kickboxers. Their small stature means they are nimble and quick. The small kickboxers managed to do quite a number on the marines who entered the ring with them. Most of the time women can't fight because they aren't trained to and most of us really aren't anxious to learn(I can think of a million things I'd rather do than kick the crap out of someone during my spare time.)
Yves Smith Post author August 23, 2015 at 12:22 am
Oh, I agree, if you have good training, the size differential matters little. It does not take a lot of strength to gouge someone's eyes out. But normal people are conditioned to take a defensive posture when attacked, or better yet, if you can, get the hell out of there.
But if you can't, you really do need to inflict trauma on the other person if they really intend to do bad shit to you. And you need to do it first.
jrs August 22, 2015 at 11:49 am
Foolish for joining the military? That's what I really think.
I didn't read the story but most people who join the military these days don't have much in the way of better options.
OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL August 23, 2015 at 2:35 am
From outside America this all just looks like a nice way to militarize the half of the population that is not already completely pervaded by American war culture. Militarized police, War on Drugs, War on Terra, adulation of war and soldiers in the media, Hollywood worshiping of war, video game war, war, war, it's become like friggin' Sparta or Prussia or 1930's Japan. Americans don't even seem to notice any more, which I guess is the objective: make war the keystone not only of the entire economy but also the entire culture.
ran August 22, 2015 at 11:53 am
I'd call her a goon in the service of an evil, out of control empire
craazyman August 22, 2015 at 5:34 pm
yes the rationalizations in "Henry the V" aren"t entirely persuasive to a philosophical temperment.
Which is probably why Shakespeare wrote it like he did.
Act IV, scene 1
Ian August 22, 2015 at 8:07 am
Do you believe there is any correlation between what is happening with China, Russia… Currencies and crashes and the failure of the talks of the TPP and maybe an attempt to bring the other Countries in line restart the TPP?
susan the other August 22, 2015 at 3:15 pm
I think the TPP has always been a ploy to make the ASEAN nations afraid of China's brand of imperialism and get their cooperation to then coerce China to open up her markets to "free trade". Since we are already free traders, to our detriment. And it looks like China just blew the lid off the whole experiment. But the time has passed for free-trading. It has also passed for mercantilism. We are in an age of self defeating capitalism. No amount of rationalizing can revive it. No Trade should be the mantra.
I don't think the TPP is a creature of national policy, I think it's a creature of multi-national corporation policy with bagmen like Obomba simply doing the bidding of Monsanto, Exxon, Microsoft et al. En route to inverted totalitarianism:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
Brindle August 22, 2015 at 10:03 am
Hillary/2016
So, Hill & Bill go for a stroll down the beach w/ doggies, stop in at a friends clambake and leave with a mil or two in donations. Wonder what a $2,700 pancake looks like?
—-Among the places where Mrs. Clinton enjoys stalwart support are the Hamptons, where she and Mr. Clinton have spent the past several summers, walking their dogs on the beach, attending clambakes and raising money for their family's philanthropic foundation. This summer, the fashion designer Tory Burch is among those hosting fund-raisers for Mrs. Clinton.
Alan Patricof, a longtime donor and friend, said the pancake breakfast he and his wife, Susan, were hosting for Mrs. Clinton on Aug. 30, for up to $2,700 per person, had almost reached capacity at more than 300 people.—-
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/us/hillary-clinton-will-interrupt-vacation-to-campaign-in-midwest.html?_r=0
raising money for their family's philanthropic foundation
High net worth Grifters… and I still think HRC is a dull blade tagging along in Elmer Gantry's errr.. Bill Clinton's inertia wake..
Carla August 22, 2015 at 10:04 am
Re: Nestle stealing water.
I don't buy Nestle crap anyway. Now, I can not buy it on purpose!
Generally speaking, and not directing at any internet or brickwall retailing, but is it time to boycott excess consumption?
GuyFawkesLives August 22, 2015 at 12:33 pm
Haven't had the money to do any "excess consumption" in this last decade.
It has made me happier.
i prefer Hershey's. I even bought a $5 Europeanish gourmet chocolate bar the other day with a frilly foo foo package probably designed to connote some European luxury good experience enjoyed by the aristocracy of the 19th and 20th centuries at the lobby newstand. It was quite disapointing. the chocolate was flavorless and it was mostly just nuts stuck together with chocolate 'glue'.
The $1.25 Hershey bar with almonds is so much better and the chocolate is presented in sufficient volume that it can actually be enjoyed along with the almonds! It"s not just there as a gesture.
It's Hershey bars for me from now on. Now more foo foo Europeanish excursions into the land of chocolate bar disappointment. in fact, it's Budweiser, Lipton Tea and Hershey's chocolate bars for me. No foo foo Europeanish beers or teas. It's an American Rennaisance. This is like something out of Walt Whitman. or maybe Copeland's Appalachian Spring. Its time to bring the money back home. Bring the chocolate home!
Hershey bar
gaggingly sweet, Try Icelandic chocolate. seems unintuitive but amongst the best chocolate Ive had.
Stephen L August 22, 2015 at 6:44 pm
Umm, Toblerone? Ritter Sport? Suchards?
Oregoncharles August 22, 2015 at 6:54 pm
Unlike coffee, tea actually grows in the contiguous US. I grow it myself, and drink homegrown on a regular basis. It's a camellia – Zone 7. (Sorry about that, Maine and New York.) Fragrant white flowers in the fall.
The hard part is the picking and processing, very labor-intensive. But there's a plantation up by Molalla. Don't think I've had any of theirs; probably all goes to Japan. There's an olive orchard in the Willamette Valley, too.
Kurt Sperry August 22, 2015 at 7:26 pm
If ever you get the chance, go to this- the Eurochocolate Festival in Perugia, Italy in the Fall.
http://www.bellaumbria.net/en/eurochocolate/
You will never think the same way about chocolate again. It's not just snob, the goods are brought. It's also the heart of black truffle season.
Carla August 22, 2015 at 8:22 pm
For those among us who will not make it to Perugia, I recommend trying Chocolove Peppermint in Dark Chocolate… the gourmet version of a York peppermint patty. Very nice with a sip of dry red wine, BTW.
Ex-PFC Chuck August 22, 2015 at 10:12 am
Thank you very much, Yves, for including the article about me as the very first item on today's Links page, even though "The Onion" chose to mask my true identity. I'm sure that my many fellow masocists who regularly read NC will agree that you provide a valuable service to our kind. The only improvement for us I can suggest is to cut down on the coverage of cute, fuzzy animals. Thank you again!
JEHR August 22, 2015 at 10:33 am
Matt gets the prize for the best use of f..k yet.
John Zelnicker August 22, 2015 at 10:40 am
Lambert – While you are generally correct that Southerners don't like New Yorkers, I think in Trump's case they just don't care. He speaks to their fears of the "Other" and that our culture is changing in ways that they cannot reconcile with their deeply held (religious) beliefs, e.g., same-sex marriage. His blunt talk and racist and misogynist attacks are like meat and potatoes to them.
This is a typical quote and reflects widely held beliefs here in Mobile and surrounding areas:
"All he's doing is saying what a lot of Americans are afraid to say," Ward said. "Third world countries are running over us left and right and the reason they're getting away with it is because Obama doesn't have the balls to do anything about it."
We have a lot of undocumented immigrants here and it is a major issue locally (cf., Sen. Jeff Sessions).
Yves Smith Post author August 22, 2015 at 12:49 pm
Alabama tried making it impossible to hire undocumented immigrants a few years back. Totally wrecked local harvests. They rolled back the law and the Alabama press has stopped noising up that issue. And it's not like you can even find many Latinos of any sort in Alabama. Seriously. I've been visiting Birmingham for extended periods for decades.
And the degree of Southern antipathy to outsiders is greater than you'd imagine. My mother has lived there 40 years been active in the community (including being elected to be head of some local groups, etc). Yet her ONLY friend who is a native is married to a Yankee!
I am from Long Island and for the most part am accepted here in SW Va. Actually, I think sometimes that some of the people I speak with appreciate my bluntness and candor. They don't always agree with me but they tend to respect my willingness to speak my mind and stand by my convictions.
I fall on the side of believing Trump could reach some Southerners(and actually had a conversation with several that seem to definitely be intrigued by him.) I definitely think the left should take him more seriously even though his views and policy positions are often nonsensical.
John Zelnicker August 22, 2015 at 1:43 pm
First, my apologies for not checking that you posted this, Yves.
Although born in New York City, I grew up in Mobile from the age of five and after 18 years gone for college and more, I returned and have been here ever since (29 yrs.).
You are not wrong, I remember the fiasco with that law quite well. They also picked up an executive with the Mercedes plant in Tuscaloosa which came close to causing an international incident.
While the papers may not be harping on this issue, I was thinking more about the quotes from individuals in the article. There are more such quotes here.
Also, please consider that being on I-10 and the 6th or 7th busiest port in the nation, Mobile may have far more immigrants of all kinds than Birmingham.
Ah, you have a point. I had assumed that by virtue of being the biggest city, Birmingham would have the most jobs and therefore be the most attractive to immigrants. Yes, a port or a city where agriculture was more important could be a bigger magnet.
But for instance, we do live in an area of town where a lot of people have yard men. In most areas of the US, you'd see a lot of Hispanics. I have yet to see one.
OTOH, there are certainly far fewer Latinos around here than there were before that law was passed. I'm sure they feel the attitude has not changed even though the law has.
ambrit August 22, 2015 at 2:38 pm
With all due respect maam, but it might be a result of where in Alabama you roam. I'm thinking your mother might be living in, perhaps, Hoover? (This is a guess on my part.) Out in the boonies, say, for example, Tuscaloosa, (where I have worked,) there are Latino and Hispanic supermarkets, Rincones, furniture stores, etc. etc. We have a Barrio here in Hattiesburg Mississippi. Hernandez's Tire Store, down on Hardy Street, sells 22s' and spinners to all who wish them. We have a heavily Latino trailer park in Oak Grove, next door, so to speak.
I do commiserate with your mother about the insularity of Southern society. We've experienced the same stand-offishness. One acquaintance once remarked that Southern Hospitality was a "civilized way of holding strangers at bay."
ran August 24, 2015 at 2:20 am
Come to Hoover or Alabaster next time you're in the Bham area. You'll see Latinos and mercados that cater to them aplenty
ambrit August 24, 2015 at 8:47 am
I have taken my information about Hoover from two people we know who live there. Silly me. Next time we visit the Museum we will have to make Hoover a part of the trip.
on Trump: I think he is, and knows he is, supposed to be the GOP sheep dog, or carnival barker, getting the crowd worked up and leading them to real show – to Jeb or whoever. So he thinks whatever he says is only entertainment. But something unexpected has happened: the crowd prefers the carnival barker to the main show. I think Trump is as flustered by this as the GOP. He stays in character – that's his role. But the plan of saying really crazy stuff that will finally turn the crowd away from him and toward the GOP main show isn't working. What to do? Saying crazier and crazier stuff is causing real harm. And yet the crowd isn't turning away. My guess is neither Trump or the GOP expected the crowd to itself seriously and take on a life of its own.
I think Trump is as flustered by this as the GOP.
I think he's surprised too. I wonder how he'll handle exposing his tax returns
I think this is an over-interpretation. Although even more colorful, Trum reminds me of Ross Perot, except that he's embedded in a major party – for now. Some of his policy positions – he does have them – are well to the left of the Democratic Party, and he's talking about corruption in politics.
That's one reason people like him, but it's probably also the reason he's running: why pay for other people's campaigns, when you can pay for your own instead?
He's personally very offensive, as well as in some of his positions, and I suspect he's topped out – 24% is not a winning number, once the field clears out. But I see no reason to speculate about hidden motives: the obvious one, ego, will do quite nicely.
Perot was willing to and did spend a lot of his fortune on his run. Trump has made a fetish of never spending much of his own money, and by all accounts, he's spent very little on his campaign organization, less that other serious candidates normally do at this stage.
Perot built a real business from the ground up. Trump inherited a business and expanded it mainly by turning it into a licensing organization. An enormous difference in the level of organizational skills required. Perot could legitimately say he was a leader. With Trump, it's all hat, no cattle.
I'm not that familiar with Trump's career, aside from the buffoonery, so I'll take your word for it. He SAYS he's going to self-finance; we shall see.
What I see is that both represent the authentic American hero, a tycoon with an attitude. Turns out that can go pretty far.
OTOH: I suspect Trump's support corresponds roughly with the audience for his reality show. That would explain the topped-out part.
I don't expect him to get the nomination, though that would be a lot of fun. As you know, I don't take either legacy party very seriously. An independent run would be even more fun – anything that shakes things up.
And like Perot, his support might well cut both ways, especially against Clinton, who really is a conservative and no fun at all.
Trump is not a hero. You should be ashamed of yourself for using that word in connection with Trump. Trump INHERITED an established real estate business, right before NYC as as city and therefore its real estate turned around. By contrast, Perot built two multibillion dollar businesses on his own. EDS and later Perot Systems.
Trump is simply the perfect reflection of American culture today: his entire life is one great big selfie.
I made this comment to my wife and at that moment she happened to flick the TV to another channel. It was one of those women's talk shows where they sit in a semi-circle and chat. That day's subject: "How Do You Look At Yourself in the Mirror". I kid you not, some women said "I give myself a hard appraising look", another said "I like to smile alot while keeping the lights low". I wish they would all just lean over a little more and fall into that pond already.
Katniss Everdeen August 22, 2015 at 11:02 am
RE: Productivity paradox deepens Fed rate dilemma Gillian Tett, Financial Times
The fed will remain "data dependent" as long as that "data" supports the preferred policies of its private bank owners, uber-wealthy beneficiaries and purchased government enablers.
"Data" which does not "comply" will be adjusted, restated, redefined, subjected to various "preferred deflators" or simply no longer reported.
Should those strategies fail, the financial "press" will be tasked with explaining the dissonance using words like "paradox," "fog," "mystery," "irony" and "peculiar," to quote just a few from this article.
The Downing Street Memo returns to public policy making.
Jim Haygood August 22, 2015 at 11:20 am
Rand Paul expands on the PPP (Public-Private Partnership) aspect of the pseudo-federal Fed:
Imagine that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was a corporation, with its shares owned by the nation's major pharmaceutical companies. How would you feel about the regulation of medications? Whose interests would this corporation be serving?
Or suppose that major oil companies appointed a small committee to periodically announce the price of a barrel of crude in the United States. How would that impact you at the gasoline pump?
Such hypotheticals would strike the majority of Americans as completely absurd, but it's exactly how our banking system operates.
The Federal Reserve is literally owned by the nation's commercial banks, with a rotation of the regional Reserve Bank presidents constituting 5 of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
http://reason.com/archives/2015/08/20/the-federal-reserve-is-not-your-friend
What's good for Goldman [which suddenly got invited to the club in 2008] is good for America, comrades.
Another feature is the banking system's droit du seigneur: The manor lord gets to enjoy any 'new' money, any virgin money, before the serf.
Thus, new money trickles down from the bank to you.
Obama…party its worst shape since the Great Depression.
I can hear him explain the need for 2 more terms…a la FDR…the only fear is fear itself…c'mon, give me 4…what are you afraid of here???
Secret footage of wholesale email destruction at the Clinton compound (YouTube video link):
http://tinyurl.com/oe9ddmz
Indictment — that's what they're afraid of.
Jim, thanks for the chuckle this morning.
"Nobody with half a brain believes Mrs. Clinton had 50,000 yoga routine emails. If she was doing that much yoga, she wouldn't need to wear pantsuits."
lord koos August 22, 2015 at 7:03 pm
Remember those millions of emails that Karl Rove's minions deleted from Republican party's servers?
No? Neither does the media.
EM: "I would applaud this, but for the fact that it's part of our ongoing national moar warmongering program."
We need more Yin, feminine programs that nurture, cooperate and tolerate, with reduced Yang programs that are aggressive, seek to dominate and warmonger.
We'd have to have the State Department as something separate from the DoD instead of it being an extension of the War Department and scouting agency( for figuring out which country has which resources we want and need.)
It's one of the reasons I was actually a fan of Kucinich's idea of a Department of Peace.
China's most dangerous nuclear weapon.
Isn't her most dangerous non-conventional weapon deflation?
There is no defense against that, or the billions of refugees.
Lew: We are monitoring China's currency policy.
Don't forget, Lew, to monitor the number of incoming cargo container ships from China as well.
GuyFawkesLives August 22, 2015 at 11:56 am
America: A Land Where Justice Is Absent
This is never more true than if you attend a foreclosure defense court hearing and watch as the "judge" grants summary judgment when the bank has no promissory note. What happened to the promissory note? Well, the bank claims the note is either lost or destroyed, but doesn't have a chain of custody. And in response to no promissory note and no chain of custody, the "judge" says "foreclose anyway!"
Bridget August 22, 2015 at 2:44 pm
It's permissible under the rules of evidence in most states to use testimony or other secondary sources to prove up the contents of documents when the originals have been lost or destroyed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_evidence_rule
There is generally no requirement for chain of custody of evidence in civil litigation
No way for real property.
I wrote a ton about this back in the day. I have no exaggeration, hundreds of posts on this issue and was even invited to help teach a course for CLE credit on this very topic, with Judge Jed Rakoff moderating. Real estate is subject to a different set of practices, dating back to the 1677 Statute of Frauds. And until servicers decided to disregard en masse the very carefully established procedures for handling securitizations and the courts and Administration went whole hog to paper over abuses, everyone complied.
The next bit is crude because I don't have the time and energy to give a more precise formulation. Promissiory notes for mortgages are negotiable instruments under the UCC. They are like a check. You can't let people submit copies as evidence of payment. Too easy to have people make copies and then endorse them over to other parties, Deeds require wet ink signatures. The securitization documents ALSO required wet ink signatures.
Far more infamous than Pearl Harbor imo.
America: Where Laziness Rules.
Re. the Carter cancer story:
Doesn't Reuters have editors any more? One sentence "jumped out at me."
"He said he was pleased that he did not become angry or despaired."
Despaired!!???
Good luck to Mr Carter in his end of life struggle. He has been teaching by example since he left office. Now begins the biggest "teachable moment" of his life.
As for his regret about the helicopters used in the Iran Hostage extraction attempt; not to worry. Obamas' bunch had tacit, if not overt approval from bin Ladens "hosts" in Pakistan to go in and "take him out." They still managed to crash one of their helicopters.
Jim Haygood August 22, 2015 at 12:29 pm
I feel turmoiled when journos syntax that way.
Let's english better, okay?
Me with you guy. What they think they is, graduates of Cookie Monster School of Journalism?
"Panic sets in, not over yet:" –
Not much of a panic; precious metals haven't jumped. Been waiting for that for quite a while now.
You are going to have to wait a very long time. Gold FELL in the2 007-2008 crisis. It got to a low of under $670 an oz.
It fell, but not quite as hard as stocks did. Then it took off like a rocket. The next time gold goes up like that, it probably won't come down for quite awhile.
No, I bought GLD when gold was under $690. It didn't "take off like a rocket".
Foreign Affairs. Bean Counters. Can accounting save capitalism from itself? No, but strict laws controlling the destruction of the environment and society can. Capitalism is a slow and grudging way to do a beneficial thing. By the time corporations realize any spiritual benefit from being good citizens, we'll all be dead. But the premise of the article seemed to invoke the value of a corporation and how that is measured. They asked this question without addressing the reality that global warming is so critical, and environmental destruction so widespread, that we face immediate action to stop the destruction. And for capitalism that means that common sense will shut down any corporation that cannot comply whether beans are counted or not. And that means, ironically, that the good corporations are probably undervalued because it will soon be prohibitively expensive to do new ones and cottage industries will replace all the useless capitalist overkill. Leaving only a few shining corporate stars.
Too much speculation, too much opinion, or too honest?
To be too honest is to admit that much of what passes for knowledge is speculation and or opinion.
From the article on California's Obamacare exchange problems:
"consumers blocked from getting health coverage for months because of Covered California's inability to overcome computer glitches.
Compare this with Louis Proyect's article the other day about the IT problems with changing a currency (eg, Euros to drachmas). What he's really saying is that IT is now a huge hurdle, in fact a barrier, to ANY major change. Granted, Obamacare is a problem because it was deliberately made needlessly complicated, in order to cover up its real nature. A lot of that goes on. (See "financial derivatives.") Indeed, the other side of that coin is that IT makes it much easier to dream up and implement, or pretend to implement, needlessly complicated schemes.
It's more than a little ironic to say this on a Web site, but we've walked into a trap. It's baited with the fantastic ease and new powers that computers and the Web grant us, but it now severely constrains our options.
NC has been calling this "Code as law." It's looking like a bigger problem than that name implies. I think we need a start on solutions, preferably short of banning computers altogether, as Frank Herbert proposed in Dune.
LifelongLib August 22, 2015 at 7:25 pm
Re Dune, maybe the mentats would be trying to complicate things, just to keep themselves employed. They'd probably have a monopoly on all computation. IIRC Baron Harkonnen didn't like depending on mentats and said thinking machines were a better idea.
If we were playing connect the dots, rewind the tape on how this capability was enabled and we're one dot away from Prescott Bush Jr.
jrs August 22, 2015 at 5:24 pm
Just this last week thinking over my time in the workforce (17 years so far), I realized to my chagrin, that only about 7 of that was spend in jobs that were in any way productive. Another 4 were spent doing utterly pointless work that shouldn't exist (the equivalent of digging holes and filling them up again). Another year was spent in a job that didn't give us ANY work to do! (yes it was private sector) Another 5 were spent in a role that could be productive but that I personally wasn't very productive in because it was a horrible fit for my personality.
There's a great article in Counterpunch today on the Basic Income.
"The Real Demographic Challenge "
Encouraging, at least for the countries with that "challenge," but an aspect of this article always bothers me:
The blithe forecasts of highly implausible human numbers for the near future. I simply don't believe human numbers will ever reach 9 billion – and not because women's conditions will improve dramatically. Our life-support systems are already collapsing; one stock after another is withering away. To say nothing of the climate, or sea level rise. All the indications are that the population will crash, not skyrocket, and fairly soon. Not something I enjoy thinking about, but there it is.
Granted, we probably could feed that many, at huge cost to the overall life-support system, IF we did everything right. How often does that happen? All systems have a failure rate.
That UN projection creeps me out.
Um, ecological systems collapsing did not lead to voluntary reductions in population in the case of the Mayans or the Anasazi, to name other cultures that faced similar problems.
People sometimes compare Bernie Sanders in 2015 to Barack Obama in 2007-2008. Obama was all talk and no walk, did little when he was in the Senate, and knifed his voter base in the back as soon as he was in office. The implication is that Sanders will do the same if elected. There's a huge difference between Sanders and Obama: Sanders has been in the Congress since 1991, and if someone has doubts about him, we have thousands of roll call votes to analyze. Sanders is not Obama.
Here's a very revealing quote from the article:
Currently, 16 percent of federal prisoners are housed in private prisons. The two largest prison corporations, GEO Group and Corrections Corporation of America, together take in $3.3 billion in annual revenue and the industry doubled in size between 2000 and 2010.
As far as I know, Obama did nothing about this when he was in the Senate, nor has he done anything about it as President. Let's stop the unfair implications that Sanders is another Obama. Sanders, whatever his faults might be, is far better than Obama.
Who Sanders reminds me of with this is actually not Obysmal but Ron Paul. Ron Paul had the habit of introducing noble legislation (from a libertarian perspective but much of it was desirable) that would never ever see the light of day. But he would ride in on a white horse and introduce legislation, so he was always doing something that seemed noble (for the photo op so to speak), and then he would work with noone to get it accomplished, even within his own party, and it would just die.
Now Sanders could try to work with the Dems to get this accomplished as he has some ability to, only the Dems don't have a majority (thanks Obysmal), so unless he got wide bipartisan support for it, it's going nowhere. But there's another problem … this congress is the most bought and paid for congress ever, more money was spent to get into congress than ever before, so far more than it represents Republicanism even (whatever that is these days), this congress represents highest bidderism. Who took what from Correction Corporations of America and what is the party breakdown?
Vatch August 23, 2015 at 12:19 pm
Here's the Federal Election Commission data on Correction Corporations of America PAC donations (the company is also known as CCA):
http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/com_supopp/C00366468/
House Speaker John Boehner got a huge amount of money. Trade traitors Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Ron Wyden are recipients.
GEO Group PAC donations:
Again, trade traitor Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a recipient. The Democratic Campaign Committee got a lot of money.
Carla August 22, 2015 at 11:10 pm
"this congress is the most bought and paid for congress ever, more money was spent to get into congress than ever before…this congress represents highest bidderism. Who took what from Correction Corporations of America and what is the party breakdown?"
Whoever it was, I'm pretty sure it wasn't Bernie.
none August 23, 2015 at 12:13 am
Varoufakis-Tsipras starts cat fight with Tsipras
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/22/varoufakis-brands-alexis-tsipras-new-de-gaulle
On the shade balls in California's reservoirs and what they are made of.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-shade-ball-water-20150812-htmlstory.html
They say they are safe. But it seems like worrying about being poisoned by the plastic in shade balls is the least of our worries, when our organic veggies are grown with fracking chemicals, and there's more news like that every day. We are being poisoned but probably not with "shade balls". Maybe the Roman empire really was destroyed by lead poisoning, or if not the Roman empire this one is surely going to end itself that way.
Ian August 23, 2015 at 12:56 am
https://www.google.com/patents/US6506148
Irrational August 23, 2015 at 1:54 pm
Re. Lie of free trade
Apologies for commenting in links on this, but I do miss a discussion of America's trade policy after World War II. I have always been taught (at European universities admittedly) that the US extracted market access for their goods from Europe and Japan. Clearly, that would suggest that free trade was seen as good – at least for the US – far earlier than Reagan/Bush/Clinton. I wonder how this period is perceived in the US?
semper loquitur on AI = BSA friend and former professor went through a...
John on AI = BSAt the end of the day and a...


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Q: Marginalizing the Conditional Expectation I am trying to marginalize the conditional expectation and I am not sure what I do is correct. It agrees with my intuition but it does not make sense according to the law of total probability. This is the problem:
$E[Y|X_1,X_2, L_1] = 0.3 + 2X_1 + 3X_2 + 5X_1X_2 + 6L_1 $
I would like to get:
$E[Y|X_1, X_2]$ by averaging over all values of $L_1$. The distribution of $L_1$ is Bernouli where $P(L_1 = 1) = 0.1 + 3X_1$
What I am doing is as follows:
$E[Y|X_1, X_2] = 0.3 + 2X_1 + 3X_2 + 5X_1X_2 + 6(0.1 + 3X_1)$
Since it will be 1 with probability $0.1 + 3X_1$ and zero otherwise.
However according to the law of total expectation:
$E[Y|X_1, X_2] = E[Y|X_1,X_2, L_1 = 1] p(L_1 = 1) + E[Y|X_1,X_2, L_1 = 0]P(L_1 = 0)$
This means the probability is multiplied by the whole expression and not by 6 only.
Can someone tell me what is the right way to marginalize the conditional expectation given above?

A: Both are good.

Let $Z=0.3+2X_1+3X_2+5X_1X_2$ to save some space.
So $\mathsf E(Y\mid X_1,X_2,L_1) = Z+6L_1$
Then by the Law of Total Probability: $$\small\begin{align}\mathsf E(Y\mid X_1,X_2) &= \mathsf E(Y\mid X_1,X_2,L_1{=}1)\mathsf P(L_1{=}1\mid X_1)+ \mathsf E(Y\mid X_1,X_2,L_1{=}0)\mathsf P(L_1{=}0\mid X_1)\\[1ex]&= (Z+6)(0.1+3X_1)+(Z+0)(0.9-3X_1)\\[1ex]&= Z+6(0.1+3X_1)\end{align}$$ As your intuition gave you.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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Tag: Jonathan Forgash
Trek through Ecuador via Queens with QDC on November 13th
Vibrant ceviche mixto, featuring shrimp and octopus, and the mighty bolon filled with pork, plantains, and mozzarella are just part of the evening's menu.
Ask any old-school Queens food nerd, including yours truly, about Ecuadorean cuisine in the World's Borough and the first thing that comes to mind will be the cluster of food trucks on Warren Street underneath the 7 train in Corona or perhaps the ladies who grill cuy—guinea pig—in Flushing Meadows Corona Park. About year ago though some very trusted Queens food nerds of a more recent vintage, like my pal Instagrammer @Wendalicious888 started to talk about a new place Rincón Melania on the border of Sunnyside and Long Island City.
"How good can it be? There are no Ecuadoreans over there," I thought to myself. Good enough for a glowing review in The New York Times it turns out. Which is why I'm so glad that the next Queens Dinner Club will convene at Rincón Melania November 13th. Make sure you don't miss out on this very special dinner by signing up for our mailing list here.
ceviche, Ecuadorean, goat, Jonathan Forgash, Long Island City, Queens Dinner Club, Rincón Melania, seco de chivo
Queens Brunch Club Comes to M. Wells Oct. 26
The brunch scene back in the glory days of M. Wells Diner.
I know what you're thinking, "'Queens Brunch Club??,' Joe hates brunch, and isn't it called 'Queens Dinner Club' anyhow?" All true, but for this month Jonathan, Gabe (they hate brunch too), and I are changing the name of our little eating organization to Queens Brunch Club. That's because we are hosting a brunch at M. Wells Steakhouse on October 26th. Make sure you don't miss out on this very special dinner by signing up for our mailing list here.
"Québecois Chef Hugue Dufour of M. Wells has created a chef's brunch for chefs that hate brunch. Not an egg or hash brown to be found here," says Chef Jonathan. "Nothing but fantastical visions of food turned into reality." (more…)
brunch, foie gras, Gabe Gross, goat, Goatober, Huguue Dufour, Jonathan Forgash, Queens Dinner Club, wonton soup
Taste Your Way Around the Globe at Dining for Justice on April 14
Mexican-born chef Fernando Gonzales of ERT will be cooking up cochinita pibil.
Without immigrants the United States and Queens, and myself, frankly would not be who we are today. That's why I'm honored to show my support for the second Dining For Justice fundraiser for immigrant families at the border, which will be held at Sound River Studios in Long Island City. on April 14, 2019 from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Chef Jonathan Forgash, co-founder of Queens Dinner Club, has assembled a roster of top-flight chefs, many of whom are immigrants themselves, for this gala tasting whose cuisine is as diverse as Queens itself. (more…)
Dining for Justice, ERT, Fernando Gonzalez, Hugue Dufour, John Brown Smokehouse, Jonathan Forgash, Kurry Qulture, M. Wells Steakhouse, Pecel Ndeso, Queens Dinner Club, The Queensboro
Seven Questions For . . .
La Flor's Chef Viko Blends the Flavors of South America and Europe
Chef Viko Ortega is a chef's chef.
One of the first places I lived in Queens was Woodside. Walking Roosevelt Avenue to hit Thai places, Filipino spots, and taco trucks turned me on to the delicious diversity of food that makes the borough my favorite place to live, eat, and play. There's one place I never frequented in all my time in Woodside though, La Flor, a cafe restaurant helmed by journeyman Chef Viko Ortega. I only just got around to meeting Chef Viko and trying his wonderful nuanced dishes. I was mightily impressed by his cooking. As were my friends Chef Jonathan Forgash and Gabe Gross of Queens Dinner Club. That's we've decided to have Chef Viko cook our next dinner Mexico Meets France and Italy via Roosevelt Ave. which takes Tuesday May 17, 2016, 7:30 p.m. Chef Viko was kind enough to take some time away from the kitchen to answer seven questions.
How did you get into cooking?
I started baking when I was 13 years old in my hometown of Puebla, Mexico. In 1987 when I was 21 the main reason I came here was that I was tired of baking. So I came here and figured out that the only way to make decent money was back to the kitchen. I started doing pizza and pastry and salads. I cooked at dozens of restaurants including Larry Forgione's An American Place. I can't get away from baking though. The starter I use to make all the breads at La Flor is 24 years old.
Atlantic salmon with potato gallettes.
How would you characterize your cooking at La Flor?
I would say it's a combination of everything I learned. I mix Italian, French, Mexican—that's one of my favorites—a little bit of Asian. So it's kind of fusion and I just love food. The dishes that you're going to find here you're not going to find anywhere else, I just love to play. It's me. (more…)
Chef Viko Ortega, French, Gabe Gross, Italian, Jonathan Forgash, La Flor, Mexican, Queens Dinner Club, Woodside
Peter Lo, Elmhurst's Godfather of Indian-Chinese Cuisine
Peter Lo whipping up Singapore chow mein in the kitchen of Tangra Masala.
Indian-Chinese, with its fiery palate of ginger, garlic, green chilies and soy, used to be one of my favorites, but for about five years my love affair for one of the world's original fusion cuisines was doused by waves of regional Chinese, Thai, and Uzbek food. I've been away from my old flame, Tangra Masala for far too long. It took a chef buddy, Jonathan Forgash, to reintroduce me to one of Queens most vibrant and delicious cuisines. And in so doing he introduced me to the man who is unquestionably the Godfather of Indian-Chinese cuisine in Queens, Chef Peter Lo. Chef Lo took the time out of his busy schedule to talk about the hallmarks of his cuisine as well as the upcoming Queens Dinner Club.
Where are you from originally and how did you learn to cook?
I'm from Calcutta. When I came to this country in 1984 I used to work part time in a restaurant. I really got fascinated seeing the way food was cooked and prepared. I liked the system. Back home my mother had an Indian-Chinese restaurant. She's an excellent cook. Gradually I got to love cooking food, a friend used to say, "Why don't you open a restaurant? You know you cook good food." So that's how I got to opened this restaurant in 2001. (more…)
chili chicken, Elmhurst, hot sauce, Indian-Chinese, Jonathan Forgash, Peter Lo, Queens Dinner Club, Tangra Masala

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Home UK Cat News Special home needed for cat who has defied all the odds to...
Special home needed for cat who has defied all the odds to survive
Poor Timmy was found living in a bin shed surrounded by rubbish with horrendous ear tumoursRSPCA staff who have seen some of the most shocking cases of cruelty and neglect were lost for words when a sickly cat who had been living in a bin shed came into their care.
Little Timmy was found in Luton on January 11 in an appalling condition with horrendous tumours on both of his ears.
He was rescued by an RSPCA animal collection officer and taken to the charity's South Bedfordshire branch before being moved to Southridge Animal Centre, in Potters Bar, Hertfordshire.
Centre manager Anna White was shocked by what she saw: "Timmy had obviously been struggling to survive as a stray during the winter and throughout the cold and wet weather.
"He had struggled to find enough food, had no home comforts, and his home – of all places – was a stinking, filthy, damp bin shed surrounded by people's rubbish.
"He was one of the most pitiful animals we have ever laid eyes on. His ears were obviously hugely uncomfortable and painful. He tried to scratch them and shake his head in an attempt to stop the pain, but as soon as I tickled him under the chin he began to purr. He still had a chance."
Anna added: "Vets diagnosed Timmy with cancerous growths on both ear flaps. These had become infected, were ulcerated and were bleeding.
"The only treatment was to surgically remove the ear pinna on both sides and, to remove the surrounding tissue, on one ear.
Timmy no ears.jpg
"Without veterinary intervention these growths would have continued to grow and caused Timmy excruciating pain.
"Thankfully, Timmy is feeling better with each and every day that passes. He might look like a cat from outer space now, but he is comfortable and happy."
The RSPCA is now looking for a special person to offer Timmy a forever home.
"Timmy is such a lovely cat who has had a tough life so far," Anna added. "So he really does deserve to live out his days in the warmth and comfort of a home, with the love and care he desires."
If you think you could offer Timmy a suitable new home, please contact RSPCA Southridge on 0300 123 0704.


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Mine Eyes Have Seen the Glory
May 30, 2011 at 11:10 am (By Tim)
It's Memorial Day, which used to be called "Decoration Day," a holiday begun after the Civil War to honor the dead. It was originally meant both for the sake of the fallen and to promote reconciliation. The month of May was the obvious season, as flowers to decorate graves would be in greater profusion than at the the anniversary of the end of the War in early April. The exact date of May 30 was established in the North, because no battle had been fought on that day. It was settled that Veterans' graves were to be decorated and civic memorials for the fallen soldiers held.
"Memorial Day" gradually became the more common name as the United States fought more wars, and it became almost universal after World War II. The name wasn't officially changed, though, until 1967.
Aside from both the official purpose of the day and its popular celebration as the kickoff to summer, I'm afraid I have one peculiar thing relating to it floating around in my head. It's a heartrending piece of music written about Decoration Day by Charles Ives (1874-1954). Ives' compositions were almost always inspired by, and included quotes from American music of his time. Among his favorites were the sounds of brass bands. This was quite natural, as his father was town bandmaster of Danbury, Connecticut. "Decoration Day" has as its centerpiece the sounds of such a band. But it is enveloped by music representing both the everyday and the "cosmic" context of the lives of ordinary New Englanders. For Ives, as a musician, the most important mark of that shared existence was the village band. One of Ives' notable techniques is to include in his works the sounds of bands, either alone, as here, or juxtaposed, as in "Central Park in the Dark," another striking and evocative orchestral piece I recommend, if you don't know it, as a possible starting place with Ives' music.
"Decoration Day" paints a picture of a New England small town when Ives was a boy in the latter years of the 19th century. It is filled, as is most of Ives' music, with quotes and snippets of popular songs, hymns, and Civil War tunes. Igor Stravinsky, describing Ives' procedure, called it "inclusiveness." Much of Ives' so-included commonplace music is unfamiliar today. It is a fascinating exercise, though, to try to make out tunes that might be familiar, or to look through collections of old Protestant hymns to see what Ives might have used. A passing familiarity with Ives' musical backdrop can be a tremendous help to better know the art in this music. Ives himself wrote the story, or "program," of this piece thus:
In the early morning the gardens and woods around the village are the meeting places of those who, with tender memories and devoted hands, gather the flowers for the Day's Memorial. During the forenoon as the people join each other on the Green there is felt, at times, a fervency and intensity—a shadow perhaps of the fanatical harshness—reflecting old Abolitionist days. It is a day as Thoreau suggests, when there is a pervading consciousness of "Nature's kinship with the lower order—man." After the Town Hall is filled with the Spring's harvest of lilacs, daisies, and peonies, the parade is slowly formed on Main Street. First come the three Marshals on plough horses (going sideways), then the Warden and Burgesses in carriages, the Village Cornet Band, the G.A.R., two by two, the Militia (Company G), while the volunteer Fire Brigade, drawing a decorated hose-cart, with its jangling bells, brings up the rear—the inevitable swarm of small boys following. The march to Wooster Cemetery is a thing a boy never forgets. The roll of the muffled drums and "Adestes Fideles" answer for the dirge. A little girl on a fencepost waves to her father and wonders if he looked like that at Gettysburg. After the last grave is decorated, Taps sounds out through the pines and hickories, while a last hymn is sung. The ranks are formed again, and "we all march to town" to a Yankee stimulant—Reeves' inspiring "Second Regiment Quickstep"—though, to many a soldier, the sombre thoughts of the day underlie the tunes of the band. The march stops—and in the silence, the shadow of the early morning flower-song rises over the Town, and the sunset behind the West Mountain breathes its benediction upon the Day .
I can never listen to this music, especially as I live near a cemetery filled with Grand Army of the Republic badges next to weathered marble headstones, without a lump in my throat. And today, in at least some of these New England cemeteries, the tired old stones and rusted iron badges will have bright flags to keep them company. They remind us that the last full measure of devotion they represent ought not to have been offered in vain. And so, as another tribute to that devotion, we have this piece of uniquely American "classical" music that not only anticipates much in the European avant-garde of the later 20th century, but serves as a reminder of that first, calamitous, total American war.
I haven't listened yet, but I love this post so much. Ives's own writing is so evocative and living a link to the 19th century. We are so often so ahistorical, lately . . . untethered to the past, unaware of how it shapes us. Memorial Day is "the beginning of summer," "a long weekend." Thank you, Tim. And now I'm going to listen.
Tim, thanks for this. So moving. I'll make sure my son reads this post and listens to the music. XXOO
mockturtle said,
Beautiful. Poignant.
Tim said,
Thank you all for the kind words. I really appreciate them.
Dear reader, thank you especially, but I hope your son has the patience to sit through 9+ minutes of "difficult" 20th century music. I know my own 14-year-old choral scholar, who will be taking classes at the New England Conservatory Prep School, including AP music theory, only recently (last few weeks) could stand to listen to an entire Ives movement. His 17-year-old brother still squirms and leaves the room. So, as I say, I hope your son has inherited your family's musical sensibilities, and will, as Ives once said to an audience member who was complaining about too much dissonance, "take it like a man."
As a purely musical aside, there is a case that Ives was the first 20th century avant garde composer. Stravinsky himself said as much. Case in point, our "Decoration Day" was written in 1906, in the same era as the heyday of Richard Strauss and Debussy, but uses techniques that European "advanced" composers weren't exploring for another 20 or 30 years.
So much for our crude and vulgar American sensibilities.
Even so, none of the above compare to the likes of Bach or Mozart. Ives' prose is better than his music. IMHO, there are no great American composers.
That is, none of the above COMPARES. Sorry.
American composers write for a generally smaller canvas* than classical composers. So while I would agree that there are no American composers of great symphonies, there are American composers who have written great music. Gershwin, just for one.
And, as an aside, it is not necessarily easier to write a great short piece than a great long one. For something mediocre, longer is harder. But writing a great sonnet, for example, is IMHO rather more difficult than writing a great poem where length is not one of the constraints.
* Maybe American audiences just have a shorter attention span? (And, on the evidence, that may go we back in our history….)
TT Burnett said,
Reblogged this on Ambiance and commented:
Here's a post I did a year ago. My thoughts haven't changed.
Great post then and now. Thank you for the reminder.


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First and foremost, Most Precious Blood School is a family of faith brought together by a common love of Jesus Christ. Students learn to live their lives by the example set by Jesus. The actions of our teachers and staff clearly demonstrate this.
Partnerships with St. Joseph Hospital and the University of Saint Francis expose children to a wide variety of opportunities. Christian service projects are a part of everyday for students at Most Precious Blood School.
Click here to view our Religion Curriculum for the Diocese of Fort Wayne-South Bend.
Most Precious Blood School provides a balanced literacy approach to Language Arts. The Accelerated Reader program allows students to read and grow at their own pace. Algebra is offered in Eighth Grade. A hands-on Science curriculum lets students get involved.
Additional courses are offered at Most Precious Blood School, including Art, Library, Physical Education, Health, Music, Spanish, TV, Lego Robotics, and Computers.
Students in Grades 6-8 benefit academically through electives. Electives are offered in the areas of Robotics, Advanced Band, Strategy, Future City, Student Council, Theater and more! Choir is offered to students in Grades 6-8.
Most precious Blood teachers work with the University of Notre Dame and ACE (Alliance for Catholic Education,https://ace.nd.edu/about/the-alliance-for-catholic-education ) to create the Diocese of Fort Wayne South Bend curriculum which is aligned with the Indiana Academic Standards http://www.doe.in.gov/standards. Most Precious Blood School is accredited by AdvancED http://www.advanc-ed.org/about-us.
Each classroom has a Smartboard. Interactive whiteboards motivate student learning by combining the simplicity of a whiteboard with the technology of a computer. Students are able to write on the SmartBoards with LCD pens. Complex lessons such as dissecting a frog can be shared with ease.
Students in Grades 6-8 have the opportunity to gain a better understanding of computer programming through elective classes of Future City and Robotics.
5th grade students spend a week at the Indiana National Guard STAR Base learning science, technology, engineering, and math.
Most Precious Blood School is the only elementary school in its district to offer a full television studio as part of its curriculum. Public Service Announcement creation and other programming opportunities are available to students in grades 6-8.
The Preschool program offers full day options for 3, 4, and 5 year olds three or five days per week. A full day Kindergarten is also offered every day. After school care is another option for working parents.
Most Precious Blood School is proud of its athletic program. A fully-functioning bowling alley is located directly on the school campus. Athletic programs bring students and families together.
Creativity is nurtured at Most Precious Blood School. Musical expression is cultivated through involvement with the Handbell Choir. A yearly Broadway musical production is one to the many cultural highlights of the year and involves students at a variety of grade levels.


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Protecting Your Finances
February 23, 2009 / 12:05 AM / CBS
With stocks and the Dow plunging, many people are wondering where their money is safe. Stephanie AuWerter, Contributing Editor for SmartMoney.com, has some advice.
First, be realistic - expect more tough times ahead. The economy can't be fixed overnight. "The fact is that right now, we just don't know what the banking sector is going to look like even six months from now," says AuWerter.
AuWerter says the first step to surviving tough times is saving for a rainy day. "Part of the problem with our economy is that Americans are not spending... but I am focused on the individual. My advice is to save as much as you can," says AuWerter. She suggests saving 6-9 months worth of living expenses in a cash account, such as a money market account. "I think the job market is going to get worse before it gets better," she adds. It's important to have that cash cushion in case you are laid off.
Also, be sure to keep your 401k. While it may be frustrating to see that your account is losing money, it will eventually regain what it has lost once the market starts to rebound. "If you have an investment horizon of ten years or more, you want to stick with your 401k," says AuWerter. Continue to make regular investments over time; now that stocks are low, you'll be buying more shares for the same amount of money. When stocks start to go up, you'll have acquired more shares which lessens the blow. If stocks aren't for you, AuWerter suggests looking into bond funds or a cash option instead. "No matter what, you don't want to walk away from that company match," says AuWerter.
When it comes to short-term withdrawals, however, AuWerter suggests pulling the money out now. If you know you're going to need your money within the next few years - say, for a child's college fund - pull it out of the market now. You don't want to run the risk of your investments falling further and taking an even bigger hit.
If you can help it, you should also look to eliminate your credit card debt. Use any extra money you have to pay it down - you could save thousands in interest in the long run. However, once you've paid off a credit card, don't close the account. "Leave those credit lines open. They are a line of defense during an emergency," says AuWerter. Be sure to pay your bills on time every month - this can help keep your interest rates from rising and will help your credit score too. Try writing down a timeline for paying off your cards and call your lender to try to lower your interest rate. Every little bit helps, even if you just pay an extra $5.00 each month.
For more information on surviving a financial crisis, as well as additional personal financial advice, click here to visit www.SmartMoney.com.
By Erin Petrun
First published on February 23, 2009 / 12:05 AM
© 2009 CBS. All rights reserved.
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