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Why hurricane forecasters can't 'politicize' storm warnings even if they wanted to
109 Views September 14, 2018 Be first to comment David Titley
Rising tides move closer to the dunes in Kill Devil Hills, N.C., Sept. 13, 2018, as Hurricane Florence approaches the east coast. AP Photo/Gerry Broome
Dr. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia famously talks about "climate zombie myths": No matter how many times you slay them, they keep coming back.
In 2016 conservative news blogger Matt Drudge accused the federal government of hyping the threat as Hurricane Matthew approached the U.S. coast, purportedly to play up possible links between extreme weather and climate change. I explained how this not only was false, but that it would be impossible for the National Hurricane Center to manipulate hurricane forecasts in a political manner, given that all the raw information is accessible to anyone today with an internet connection.
Apparently, Rush Limbaugh did not read the article, for he has made very similar claims regarding forecasts for Hurricane Florence. A simple reading of warnings and key messages from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows a very different reality.
Senior Hurricane Specialist Stacy Stewart watches monitors at the National Hurricane Center, Sept. 4, 2018, in Miami.
AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
Accuracy, not hype
Anyone living in the Carolinas should take this storm extremely seriously. Florence will produce a large and dangerous storm surge. It is a very large hurricane, like Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It is slow-moving, like Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and will drop prodigious amounts of rain on the Southeast. The National Hurricane Center's "Key Messages" cogently summarize these life-threatening hazards.
Nonetheless, U.S. government forecasters downgraded Florence from Category 3 to Category 2 as it approached the coast on Sept. 12. They did so because observations from satellites, aircraft and ocean buoys showed the storm was a Category 2 hurricane – no more, no less.
Moreover, it would be virtually impossible for our government, or any weather service, to intentionally overhype or downplay the real risks of a major hurricane as it approaches the United States.
I have been involved with operational weather forecasting for nearly 40 years. From 2005 through 2009, I was responsible for typhoon forecasts that the Defense Department's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, issued for the western Pacific and Indian oceans. After retiring from the Navy, I served as chief operating officer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In this position, I was responsible for the National Weather Service and its components, including the National Hurricane Center.
During my career I have seen the internet and social media transform weather forecasting in general, and hurricane forecasting in particular, from a skill that was seen and practiced by a small community of specialists into one of the most transparent technical endeavors we do on a routine basis. Every forecaster I have ever worked with – military or civilian – wants to get predictions right. And even if they wanted to shade the forecast one way or another to support some agenda, it would be impossible to do it in today's networked world.
The weather community opens up
In the pre-internet era, hurricane forecasting was more of an art than a science. Modern weather forecasting developed in the 1960s with the advent of radar, computers and satellites. Well into the 1980s, forecasters were still working out how best to integrate satellite data into computer-based forecasts. Satellite measurements and computing power were crude by today's standards.
Observations and computer prediction models traveled on government-only, proprietary circuits, with only limited access by private forecasters or academia. Government forecasters would share storm track and intensity forecasts with the public, along with short written discussions (TRANSMITTED IN ALL CAPS), but little else. Processes for deriving forecasts were closely held, available only to members of a very select and specialized guild. Private-sector forecasting of hurricanes was in its infancy, hampered by a lack of real-time information.
A high definition camera outside the International Space Station captured a view of Hurricane Florence at 7:50 a.m. EDT on Sept. 12.
Starting in the 1990s, personal computers, dial-up access and then the internet fundamentally changed the way weather information could be accessed and distributed. Today global weather models from the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting are available to anyone with an internet connection. When the NHC directs U.S. Air Force Reserve personnel or NOAA "Hurricane Hunters" to fly a hurricane reconnaissance mission, the data they collect are posted virtually in real time. Satellite images from the JTWC or NHC forecast are available online free of charge.
For hurricanes, the federal government produces one official forecast from either the National Hurricane Center for the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the western Pacific and Indian oceans. This forecast draws on computer-based weather forecast models, an assessment of the storm's real-time characteristics, and the knowledge of a highly trained typhoon duty officer or hurricane specialist. It would be obvious instantaneously if it deviated substantially from observed conditions, or from a blend of the computerized forecast guidance, without providing some meteorological or physical explanation.
This level of transparency is fairly new. As recently as the early 2000s, there were significant and sometimes emotional debates within the weather forecasting community over how much computer modeling data and information from weather observations should be publicly available in real time. Some forecasters worried, and still do now, that users could misinterpret individual pieces of data or second-guess official forecasts. Over time, however, consensus has grown in favor of making all the data available to anyone interested, so that everyone can see how forecasts are put together.
Forecasting hurricanes in the internet era
Now that so much weather data is publicly available, the explosion of social media guarantees that thousands of observers are looking over forecasters' shoulders. And forecasts get a lot of attention, especially when they involve extreme events.
Hundreds of people with varying credentials comment on every tropical storm, hurricane or cluster of thunderstorms. Popular sites like Weather Underground and Windy further attest to broad public interest in all things meteorological.
Poster from Weather Underground.
If U.S. government forecasters appeared to be disregarding either observations or reliable forecast models without explanation, weather enthusiasts would quickly point this out on social media, and major news media would pick up the story. We don't see this in headlines because it doesn't happen.
Weather forecasters understand that they walk on a knife's edge between over-warning on the one hand – which can produce false alarms and complacency – and under-warning on the other, potentially trapping people in life-threatening situations. The National Hurricane Center, backed by a national and international network of observers, scientists and computer models, does amazing work under very high pressure. There always are lessons to be learned, but the bottom line is that we owe them thanks, and Mr. Limbaugh owes them an apology.
This is an updated version of an article originally published on October 12, 2016.
David Titley is an advisory board member of National Academy of Sciences Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate and Citizens' Climate Lobby. He is a Board member of the Council for Strategic Risks, is affiliated with the Hoover Institution's Arctic Security Initiative, and currently chairs the National Academy of Sciences Climate Communications Initiative.
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~If you know you have anaphylaxis always carry your medicine with you at all times.
~Always make sure your medications are up to date.
~Wear medical I.Ds at all times.
~Don't delay emergency medication, use immediately.
~Epinephrine is not a FOOLPROOF, do not take chances and eat your allergen foods.
~placing a drop of a solution containing a possible allergen on the skin, and a series of scratches or needle pricks allows the solution to enter the skin. If the skin develops a red, raised itchy area (called a wheal), it usually means that the person is allergic to that allergen. This is called a positive reaction.
~injection of a small amount of the suspected allergen under the surface of the skin. A typical reaction looks like a small hive with swelling and redness. The intradermal test is more sensitive than the skin prick test and can usually provide more consistent results.
~the allergen solution is placed on a pad that is taped to the skin for 24 to 72 hours. This test is used to detect a skin allergy called contact dermatitis.
Allergy blood tests detect and measure the amount of allergen-specific antibodies in your blood. When you come into contact with an allergy trigger, known as an allergen, your body makes antibodies against it. However, they can throw a false positive.
The allergist feeds you the suspect food in measured doses, starting with very small amounts that are unlikely to trigger symptoms. Following each dose, you are observed for a period of time for any signs of a reaction. If there are no symptoms, you will gradually receive increasingly larger doses. If you show any signs of a reaction, the food challenge will be stopped.
Most reactions are mild, like flushing or hives on the skin, severe reactions are uncommon, but if necessary, they will give medication such as antihistamines.
The allergist may ask for you to temporary eliminate specific foods from your diet for about 2-4 weeks. You will be asked to monitor your symptoms. If one of the foods you eliminated was your problem food, your symptoms should go away by the end of the test. Your allergist could ask that you replace the problem food, in a gradual manner to see if your symptoms return.
An allergic reaction to a particular food may be uncomfortable but not severe. For others, an allergic food reaction can be frightening and even life-threatening. Food allergy symptoms usually develop within a few minutes to two hours after eating the offending food. Food allergies can occur even the first time you eat a food.
Some people have an allergic reaction to a food triggered by exercise. Eating certain foods may cause you to feel itchy and lightheaded soon after you start exercising. In serious cases, an exercise-induced food allergy can cause reactions such as hives or anaphylaxis. Not eating for a couple of hours before exercising and avoiding certain foods may help prevent this problem.
Strict avoidance, reading labels for all foods you come in contact with. If the product does not have a label, then if you know you have a food allergy that product needs to be avoided. If you are questioning a product be sure to email the manufacturer and ask them directly.
Epinephrine, also called adrenaline, is the medication of choice for controlling a severe reaction. It is available by prescription as a self-injectable device (EpiPen® or Twinject®) or Auvi-Q™.
If you think you may have a food allergy please seek an allergy specialist.


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Youth YOU Program
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Top 6 most influential people that have made an impact on my life
September 3, 2014 by Glenn
The names mentioned are in no particular order.
I first met Andrew at Tafe in 2008, I was going back and forth with my court dates and wasn't too sure if I wanted to be a Personal Trainer. Andrew was my teacher for certificate 4 in Fitness. I remember going to Tafe and if I was 1 minute late Andrew would lock the classroom door, I would be locked out of class and I absolutely hated it. I would drive about 45 minutes to an hour to get to Tafe and if I wasn't there at 9am on the dot he would lock the door. I remember him saying if you have an appointment with your client make sure you get there early because; if you don't that was unacceptable for a trainer. He was an absolute hard ass and I really disliked him at first. He never took me seriously and that would also piss me off.
Andrew was the first person I looked up to in a long time that wasn't a drug dealer and was where I wanted to be and because of his high standards/expectations of people and himself that made me put my standards and expectation on myself very high as a person and trainer. I remember in Tafe he would tell people if you didn't reach the standards he had set, he would fail you without a doubt. I remember he once took me aside and said if I don't get my stuff sorted ASAP I would fail and ever since that talk there was no turning back because I was not going to fail that year no matter what.
I learnt heaps from Andrew. He taught me that even when you hold a qualification you always have to be learning and growing to be better and that no matter what there was always room to improve and invest in yourself.
I still keep in contact with Andrew and still train at his gym. Still today he gives me advice on how to be the best trainer, mentor and person that I can be and for that I am truly blessed.
Victoria Judge
When I first saw Victoria online I thought this coach rocks, she rides horses all the time has a kick ass house, lives an awesome life and living her dreams. When I first saw this I didn't even know business people live like this, I had a very different perception on business coaches hahaha.
I remember when I first started working with Victoria as my business coach, I had told her all these goals that I had, at first I was very nervous and wasn't sure if they were stupid because I had said these very same goals to another business coach and his reply was to just stick to Personal Training. When I was working with Victoria she never hesitated and always believed in my from the start. It was very cool working with her because she had crazier goals then me and every goal we set she would treat it as her own and would not stop researching. She taught me that it was possible and that if I wanted to do something in business I could; and that I could do it my way. I will never forget what Victoria instilled in me because ever since working with her I have thought big and crazy just like her.
Blake Worral Thompson
I've learnt many valuable lessons with Blake this year, the one thing I like about Blake, is the mindset he has when it comes to business- he thinks BIG and differently. I learnt from Blake how to prioritise and set my goals first, I learnt how to schedule my goals with a busy timetable and also learnt that money was just energy and something that could always be made back.
I was very nervous with many projects i've been working on this year but Blake gave me a massive kick up the arse and made me smash my 12month business goals in 3 months. Couldn't thank this guy enough. This guys killing it and has shown me a lot of insight.
No other person is like 50 cent in the game, he has owned it, from the struggles, to where he is now is massive. He has come from nothing to being a self made entrepreneur bad ass. He has his own books, record labels, vitamin water, head phones, TV shows , shoes plus more.
50 Cent is a very inspirational guy- very hungry and is always smashing goals. Love this guy heaps because he is killing it and is always pushing forward to do/become better.
One thing I like about him is how he built a strong ass team around him, he knows the value of surrounding yourself with not only people who are great and people who are willing to succeed as much as he is, but he also knows that in order to succeed and have power to be impactful and stay relevant he can't do everything; so having people around who can do what he can't gives him – and his team a strength like no other.
Lyfe Jennings is very inspirational musician. He went to jail for a very long time and at a young age. Once released from prison, he went on to do big things with his music career. The inspirational thing about this guy is that he always gives back to the community and helps youth a lot.
Lyfe Jennings runs programs in jails to keep people from re-offending and when I look at the work he does for the kids of today that inspires me heaps, because I would love to do that with my program. This guy has a massive impact on the kids of today he spreads hope and users his stories to connect and make a difference in this world.
Natashia Iacovelli
Tash was my certificate 3 and 4 in Fitness teacher. When i first started my PT course i was very over weight and in a very dark place. Tash was one of the first people to believe in me from the start, especially since it had been a long time since someone did, and this was massive for me and is what kept me going. If it wasn't for her help I would of quit 2 weeks into school but because someone believed in me and didn't give up on me I felt that the best thing I could do was be the best for myself.
Through everything i was going through at the time it was very obvious to everybody and so it was very easy to judge me and i was judged by a lot of people. Tash was different because she never judged me, she saw my potential and believed in me.
I remember she would always say to us that we needed to step our game up and say "you guys need to be like the Rachels and Petas of the class" every time she said that I would say to myself one day she will say my name as well hahahaha. But in all seriousness another person who saved my life that year.
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Eastbourne In Bloom event celebrates 25 year success
Celebrating 25 years of Eastbourne in Bloom SUS-190314-112904001
Juliet Mead
Published: 12:47 Friday 15 March 2019
Eastbourne in Bloom is celebrating 25 years.
Local school pupils presented their carpet garden designs at the 25 Years In-Bloom finals last week.
This annual In-Bloom event, celebrating 25 years, was organised by Eastbourne Education Business Partnership in conjunction with Eastbourne Borough Council.
For this special year, schools produced three separate carpet garden designs and supporting classroom work.
Prior to the judging, the pupils had been busy finding out about past In-Bloom themes and choosing from butterflies, Airbourne, seaside, sport, environment, wildlife or science and incorporating the number 25 in their final designs.
Each theme provided lots of ideas for learning and creativity both in the classroom and wider community.
The finals coincided with the start of British Science Week, which helped to provide another aspect to the competition.
Cllr Gill Mattock, Eastbourne mayor, who chaired the judging, said, "I was very impressed by all the work that the schools had done.
"Judging the different entries very testing but Roedean Moira House was the clear winner with a simple but very effective sun and boat design that will plant well at Holywell in June."
Dr Steven Goss-Turner, chair of Eastbourne EBP, said, "We are very grateful for the opportunity to contribute a carpet garden design for the town once again.
"Stone Cross Garden Centre and The Observatory Science Centre helped with judging and kindly provided prizes for the schools who received a certificate in recognition of achievement designed by Firebrand."
A spokesperson from Stone Cross Garden Centre added, "The standard of entries and enthusiasm of the pupils was as high as always."
Organisers of the event would also like to thank idverde who will be planting out the winning design.
Staff from idverde also helped with judging the entries and sponsored the tea and cakes afterwards.
The In Bloom competition has been bringing the community together for 25 years.


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Review Ratings System
Review: FIREBORNE by Rosaria Munda
October 14, 2019 /20 Comments/in Reviews Rosaria Munda The Aurelian Cycle G.P. Putnam's Sons Books for Young Readers Fantasy, Young Adult Fiction Netgalley /by Suzanne
Fireborne by Rosaria Munda
Series: The Aurelian Cycle #1
Published by G.P. Putnam's Sons Books for Young Readers on October 15, 2019
Genres: Fantasy, Young Adult Fiction
Amazon | Barnes & Noble | The Book Depository
FTC Disclosure: I received a complimentary copy of this book from Netgalley. All opinions are my own..
FIREBORNE Review
Rosaria Munda's debut novel Fireborne has everything I love in a fantasy: complex characters, exquisite world building, political intrigue, and most importantly, dragons! Fireborne follows two main characters, Annie and Lee, both of whom were orphaned during a brutal revolution that took place when they were just young children. Lee's family was part of the aristocracy and was therefore murdered by the revolutionaries when they launched their attack, while prior to that, Lee's father executed Annie's whole lowborn family to make an example out of them for their fellow villagers. Both Annie and Lee were spared execution themselves only so that they could serve as witnesses to what had happened and report back to their people. Lee's true identity is hidden for his own protection, and he and Annie eventually end up in the same orphanage together and immediately become friends.
When we first meet Lee and Annie, they are young adults and they are also Dragonriders, which is truly every bit as cool as it sounds. The characters really do ride dragons, which gave me a combination Game of Thrones/How to Train Your Dragon vibe that I loved. Lee and Annie are still the best of friends, but they are also both excellent Dragonriders and so are also friendly rivals for the title of Firstrider, a title that all Dragonriders aspire to.
Their world changes, however, when it is learned that there are survivors from the old regime and they've decided they want their city back. This puts Lee in an almost impossible situation – he must decide whether to fight for or against his birth family. Will he and Annie end up on opposite sides of this war that is threatening their way of life? And If Lee chooses to fight for his birth family, does Annie have what it takes to fight against her best friend?
It took me a couple of chapters to really get into Fireborne but then I was just glued to it and finished it in less than two days. Annie and Lee are both such likeable characters. I was sympathetic to them both because of what they had gone through as children but also loved watching them achieve success and literally soar as Dragonriders. I also loved watching their relationship evolve – they're friends, they're family, and at times, even felt like possibly a little more than that. Lee was an especially fascinating character to me because of the complication of his hidden identity and what a wildcard he is when it comes to the old regime trying to return to power. There's plenty of gut-wrenching, emotional moments as Lee considers the choice he has to make.
Aside from Annie and Lee, I also really liked the rest of the Dragonriders fleet, especially Duck, who is just a sweetheart. Power, another rider and rival of Lee's, is kind of an ass at times, but I still found him very entertaining. The best part of the Dragonriders though were the actual dragons. I was fascinated by the way everything worked, from the way the dragons chose their riders, to how the tournaments worked to decide who would ultimately be first rider. I thought the author did a fantastic job with her attention to detail here – from the rules of the tournament with its full heat kill shots versus glancing penalty shots, and especially with the fire suits with built-in coolants that the riders wore. It felt like she thought of everything and it really brought the contests to life. Between the glorious images of dragons flying through the air and the exciting contests between the riders, I found myself flying through the pages to see who would come out on top. I loved everything about this aspect of the fantasy world in Fireborne.
I'm also a big fan of political intrigue, so seeing what's going on behind the scenes as the Dragonriders prep for possible war was a big selling point for me too. I'm always drawn to those scenes where alliances are formed while other alliances are called into question and tested. In the case of Fireborne, this led to a question that ultimately left me with food for thought: If the new regime starts doing the same things that the old regime was doing, are you any better off now than you were then?
Even with everything I've written, I've still barely scratched the surface of the many layers of Rosaria Munda's Fireborne. It's an emotional novel about revolution, rivalry, and family that is sure to captivate you.
Game of Thrones meets Red Rising in a debut young adult fantasy that's full of rivalry, romance… and dragons.
Annie and Lee were just children when a brutal revolution changed their world, giving everyone—even the lowborn—a chance to test into the governing class of dragonriders.
Now they are both rising stars in the new regime, despite backgrounds that couldn't be more different. Annie's lowborn family was executed by dragonfire, while Lee's aristocratic family was murdered by revolutionaries. Growing up in the same orphanage forged their friendship, and seven years of training have made them rivals for the top position in the dragonriding fleet.
But everything changes when survivors from the old regime surface, bent on reclaiming the city.
With war on the horizon and his relationship with Annie changing fast, Lee must choose to kill the only family he has left or to betray everything he's come to believe in. And Annie must decide whether to protect the boy she loves . . . or step up to be the champion her city needs.
From debut author Rosaria Munda comes a gripping adventure that calls into question which matters most: the family you were born into, or the one you've chosen.
About Rosaria Munda
Rosaria grew up in rural North Carolina, where she climbed trees, read Harry Potter fanfiction, and taught herself Latin. She studied political theory at Princeton and lives in Chicago with her husband and cat. Fireborne (G. P. Putnam's Sons, 2019) is her debut novel.
Website | Twitter | Goodreads
Tags: 2019 release, ARC review, book review, dragons, fantasy, fireborne
https://thebookishlibra.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/fireborne.jpg 1200 794 Suzanne https://thebookishlibra.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/trimmed-Copy-of-Bookish-Logo-copy.png Suzanne2019-10-14 05:35:052019-10-13 22:55:18Review: FIREBORNE by Rosaria Munda
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verushka says:
This truly sounds amazing — it occurred to me I've never actually read a book with dragons like this before, and yes I might be a little more enamoured of that than the other stuff (which is so cool as well!)
verushka recently posted…#5Books: Book recs and Hustlers review
I loved the dragons and I'm hoping we get to see more of them in the next book!
Tammy @ Books, Bones & Buffy says:
I love the sound of this! I hope I can squeeze it into my schedule soon😁
Tammy @ Books, Bones & Buffy recently posted…Book Review Giveaway – Win a Book I Reviewed in September
Tanya @ Girl Plus Books says:
I don't think I've ever read a book with dragons so that in itself is different. I do really like political intrigue – that always pulls me right in. It sounds like there's a lot going on in this one but that it all blends together well and doesn't feel like to much. Glad you enjoyed it!
Yeah, it definitely has a lot of layers to it, a little something for everyone.
I have my ARC sitting right next to me now. I also enjoyed this book and will seek book 2.
Glad to hear you enjoyed it too! 🙂
Hena Tayeb says:
Oh it sounds so intriguing.
Hena Tayeb recently posted…Reading lately
It really was an interesting read.
Jenea's Book Obsession says:
Everything about this sounds amazing! I am hoping that our library is gonna carry it.
Jenea's Book Obsession recently posted…Review for Drowning With Others by Linda Keir
I hope you enjoy it if you're able to get a copy.
Thank you for an excellent review, Suzanne. I really like the sound of this one! Character-led with a strong, twisty plot and featuring families… oh yes, please!! I'm going to have to track this one down.
You're welcome! It really was an interesting story with lots of layers to it.
Lindsi says:
I started this yesterday! I was trying to read it before it's release date, but clearly that didn't work out. 😉 I'm enjoying it so far, although I thought the dragons would play a larger role. They seem to stay in the background and are only mentioned when their riders are around. I thought they'd be more fierce, you know? Dragon-like. It's also more brutal than I was expecting! Lovely review.
Lindsi @ Do You Dog-ear? 💬
Lindsi recently posted…An Ember in the Ashes (An Ember in the Ashes, #1) by Sabaa Tahir
Yes, I'm really hoping for more dragons in the next book!
Alison Flores says:
Great review! I'm hoping to get to this one soon!
Alison Flores recently posted…#IMWAYR ~ 10/14/19
You had me at dragons!
The dragons were a huge selling point for me too! 🙂
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Hi, I'm Suzanne. Proofreader by day, book blogger by night, devourer of books 24/7. My reading tastes: Basically you name it, I probably like it. I read a lot of contemporary and historical, both adult and YA, and I've also been enjoying more and more fantasy lately. Hobbies include: buying and hoarding of books, rambling about books to anyone who will listen, and trying to recommend books to my family and friends whether they are readers or not - because seriously, how can you not love to read books?
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SketchList 3D Pro Review: Is it Worth Buying?
The SketchList 3D Pro is billed as a great CAD (computer-aided design) tool for cabinetry. I'm no cabinet maker, but I do love DIY projects and my garden storage box was washed away in a flood two summers ago.
So, instead of buying a new box, I thought I'd build one from plans available on the Internet and attach a folding workbench to the back of it. Even if the program is designed with cabinet making in mind, the real test in the software's utility for DIY folks is how versatile it is. We're always looking for ways to get the most of our money, right?
Getting started is pretty simple. Just open it, enter the dimensions of your project, and away you go. It only takes a couple of minutes to get designing, which is great if you're really interested in getting to work.
A garden box is pretty basic, which is a good intro to this sort of software. Even if you're really into cabinetry, there's still a bit of a learning curve with regard to using all the features. Fortunately, there are some pretty good tutorial videos that can help you figure it out. Plus, there's technical support. That's pretty awesome, as it was not something I initially expected since the software is a one-time payment, and not a monthly subscription. Cool!
One good feature is that it allows you to build your projects with the actual color and grain of the woods you plan to use. If you have to show your plans to a prospective client, this allows them a better idea of what it'll look like when it's finished. As for my box, I picked a pretty basic pine and just went with it all the way around.
I assembled the back, sides, and floor pretty quickly, leaving the roof and the front door for last. These will all be basic construction so there's no need to complicate things. I want something a little more waterproof for the roof. There's a feature that allows you to build new construction materials with different textures. If I really wanted to put the time into it, I might try to design asphalt shingles because that's what I'll probably use. For our purposes here, I just subbed in granite because it looks vaguely the same.
That left building the door, which is a bit trickier. It'd be nice if this software was sophisticated enough that you could easily manipulate features, i.e. quickly and efficiently build doors from a pop-up screen. This sort of thing has been pretty standard in other kinds of building software for years. Think of it as Photoshop for CAD. So you've got to take a bit of a long, numbers-heavy road to building doors. If you're doing this professionally, and need to get your design approved by a paying client, that's probably a bonus.
My idea is to put two forward-opening doors on the front of the box. This will allow me to lock it, and open it so that I'll have easy access to everything. Once I've got everything organized inside, I can open just the side I need if I want to.
With the aid of a tutorial video, I was able to design the basic door pretty quickly. So, in less than an hour, I went from being a first-time user of this software to having a rough draft for a new garden box. That's pretty handy.
There are a couple of features I'm looking forward to monkeying around with as I gain more experience. The first is designing hinges and handles capable of handling a padlock. My garden is in a public space and keeping prying hands out of it will be a trick, especially having to figure out how to put the hinges on the inside so someone can't just unscrew them. The other is building internal shelving and hooks. Both of those are permissible with this software.
SketchList 3D Pro is a really good CAD software for the DIY set. There are a few things that they could have included to make life easier for non-professionals, but it's still got a lot of versatility so that you don't need to be a cabinet maker to make use of it.
All in all, I highly recommend this software, and will now be using it as my primary go-to when I need to work with cabinets.


The Evolution Series takes the simple form of a paperweight and introduces the viewer to a complex and intriguing design. This Graphic Evolution paperweight is made with glistening dichroic images, artist-created murrini, glass powders, and canes. Each piece is unique and can vary with the placement of images.


By the Power of Grayskull! Yup, it's official folks: we've once again taken it upon ourselves to finance a highly limited print run of the MOTUC guide book for North America.
We are currently accepting pre-orders. If you are reading this message, you get first crack at reserving an issue of the book by prepaying for it. Simply send an email to orders@motucguide.website requesting an invoice. Once you pay the invoice, your copy or copies will be guaranteed.
During this exclusive pre-order period, each buyer may only purchase up to 5 copies of the book. We want to make sure as many folks that want a copy can get one, and we don't want to pre-sell out.
Despite rising costs, we have found a way to retain the $54 price point plus $4 shipping anywhere in the USA. If you live abroad, please make sure to mention it when you request an invoice, as your shipping rates will vary (and be significantly more, unfortunately. The average total for the book plus shipping-except to Canada and Mexico- is $92 to $96).
Preorder fulfillment will begin by late April, 2019.
Order your copy today! This highly-limited second print run is sure to sell out fast.
Dear friends: We will be on vacation starting on Monday, July 19 through Wednesday, July 27.
Any orders placed during this time will be on hold until our return. We may also be slow replying to email and private messages, so if you have any questions or would like to order a book, the time to ask and get a prompt reply is now, and before Monday. Your last chance for shipping before our vacation will be on Monday the 19th in the morning, so you would have had to have paid your invoice by Sunday afternoon. Thank you again for your support!


Personal development is the process of enhancing the preexisting skills and qualities possessed by a person. It allows you to become the best version of yourself without changing your core personality or nature. However, this is not the only benefit of investing your energy in personal development, there are so many more like the ones stated below.
Personal development helps you find out more about yourself – your hopes, dreams, goals, fears, challenges and more. Learning more about yourself allows you to identify what you want in your life, what your purpose is. If you know what you want then you start looking up for possible ways to make it happen. Your purpose becomes your goal, which allows you to lose some of the uncertainty you feel about life.
Once you have found your purpose, you become clear about what you want and need. Thus, with this newfound purpose in life and clarity, you can set out to achieve your dreams. You know what you want, all you have to do now is find out which path takes you a step closer to your dreams, keeping your current resources in mind.
You feel motivated to achieve everything you want if you have found your purpose. Also, motivated people are generally happier than those who do not know what they want from their life or feel that their existence is meaningless.
You get to know more about yourself, your wants and needs if you are working on personal development. Thus, you are better able to decide which people you want to keep in your life and which ones you should sever ties with. If you know whom you want to keep, and you are already working on your flaws and lacks,then it becomes an easy decision for you to develop the necessary skills required to keep the relationship running smoothly.
The personal development journey boosts a person's resilience, confidence, and self-worth,which helps them to deal with problems in a better and more positive manner. If you are free from self-doubts and know exactly what you want then it becomes easier for you to find solutions instead of blaming yourself and moping over them.
Overall, it is in your best interests to commence on a journey towards personal development right away, instead of waiting for the right time.
Until next time, be well and stay blessed!
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Looking back on my life, I have been truly blessed. I have a very loving and caring family who has always been there for me. I have been blessed with some of the greatest friends anyone could ask for, and I have the most amazing and handsome man in my life.
The one thing I think I am missing, is a good memory. I say this, because I often forget how blessed I am; I forget how fortunate I am to have such wonderful and amazing people in my life.
I think this is something that we all forget. We look at our lives and see what we are missing, instead of what we have. We look so far down the road, that we miss the blessings that are right in front of our face. Instead of being thankful for what we have, we 'lust' after what we do not.
As humans, that is one of our biggest problems; we are never satisfied. We always want more. Perhaps it is more money, perhaps more power or influence, perhaps a bigger house or a more 'normal' family. There are lots of things we want in life, lots of things that we desire, and they keep our focus on we do not have, instead of what we do.
And of course, this misguided focus, this lust for the things we do not have, is often the very thing that hurts and destroys relationships. I do not think there is a better example of this than Adam and Eve. Adam and Eve had everything anyone could have wanted; they had each other, they had a garden full of fruits and vegetables, they were the rulers of all beasts, and they had one of the closest relationships with God.
But for Adam and Eve, that wasn't enough. They were still unsatisfied because they hadn't fulfilled all of their dreams. They wanted more! Instead of looking at the beautiful garden, and how blessed their lives were, they wanted something they couldn't have; the forbidden fruit. And they pursued that desire, just like many of us pursue desires that may not be beneficial to ourselves or to our families, and in doing so they lost nearly everything.
By focusing on their desires, instead of their relationship with God, they destroyed it. By focusing on their desires, instead of the blessing of their home, the Garden of Eden, they lost it. By focusing on their desires, the first recorded 'blame' entered their relationship.
Christmas is a time to be satisfied; a time for us to cherish the gifts God has given us. To cherish the wonderful salvation provided to us through His son Jesus Christ, to cherish our personal relationship with Him, to cherish our families and friends, and to cherish the many other blessings we have received.
Posted on December 23, 2014, in Dear Jesus, Relationship and tagged Christmas, Family, Good Memory, Jesus, lust, Reflection, Salvation, Satisfaction. Bookmark the permalink.	19 Comments.
Remember that someday we will die. Maybe even today. Don't forget that. Don't forget to be thankful for your health. For the ability to walk. For the time you get to spend with the person you love. For your siblings. For whatever it is that you have today. It's not yours, it can be stolen away at any moment. So while you have it on loan, cherish it.
God's grace and the grace of others is what get's me through. I mess up a lot, let people down, or hurt those I love. Because of the grace the people in my life give me, we can move on and grow stronger. Most of all, the grace of Jesus gives us favor before God when we are undeserving. I am most of all thankful today of Jesus' grace.
Great blog my friend! Keep up the good work of spreading the Word! Merry Christmas.
When I think about all that I have, or all the help I had raising my twins (who are just six months older) and just can't imagine what their life is like. I consider myself to be a pretty down to earth person, but even just recently, I have been getting so fixated on those who have more than me (specifically, those who can afford daycare). Wow. I am so very very lucky. So if you feel bad because you can't afford all the toys your little ones want this year? Don't! The time you spend with your family is way more valuable than any amount of money that you could spend on them. There are so many people out there who have less than you. I always say that no matter how bad your life seems, there are lots of people out there who would love to be in your shoes. So have a merry and thankful holiday this year, and if you can give back, whether it's donating to a cause, giving to the food bank, or volunteering your time (I have been wrapping presents with all the proceeds going to charity).
I am thankful that God sent His Son, Jesus, to be my Savior. I am thankful for all of my family, my friends, my home, Carson Bible Church, the Bible, and so much more.
Well done, Ezar. This Christmas I am thankful for the birth of our Lord and Savior. I am thankful for my salvation, and the Lords promises. I am thankful for the faith that the Lord has given me in going through some difficult times. Our faith is rooted in miracles, and I have seen the Lord perform many miracles in my walk with him.
I am thankful for the birth of Christ. Through him and his sacrafice, I will have eternal life. God has blessed me with far more than I deserve. Faith, family, friends….I live very simple and needs are very small. However, I do try to keep living my life as Jesus would do. Since I teach students with behavior disorders, I am constantly tried. But a deep breath and short time out…I know how I want to face choices. Being married twice to two unfaithful men has also tried my faith. (Ha…All I needed to do was follow God's plan and not my own.) Will I ever learn. Want to keep Christ in this Season and those who try to revert to,"Happy Holidays" shouldn't even be celebrating.
This Christmas, as all other Christmases, I am thankful for the birth of Christ. Without him , we would all be lost.
We look far down to what we are YET to have and then we forget to be grateful for the things that hmm, were they absent, hmmmmm, we would really have PRAYER POINTS!!!
You took all my guilt and shame when You died and rose again.
Now today You reign in heaven and earth exalted.
I really want to worship You my Lord.
Forever and ever I will love You.
You are the only one Who died for me.
Christians are supposed to be thankful people. Did you know that the word "grace" and the word "grateful" come from the same word? You see, if you have received God's amazing grace by God's amazing gift, you are supposed to be a grateful person. You are either a grateful Christian or you are a grumbling Christian.
1. For the joy and Peace that God can give even when things gethard, and who is bigger then all my fears and doubts.
2. For friends that will pray for me and who listen to me even when I ramble.
3. For my amazing family!
5. For the adventures that I've had this year that have been fun,slightly stressful, and amazing.
I see so much hurt and pain in the world, and seeing these parts of life makes me happy for all that I have.
I really think that the message of being grateful and praising God for all He has been and has done for me and my family is one that has to sink into my head this season.
I read about gratitude on E's blog today and same here now.
I'm grateful, truly grateful and will remember that reflecting on God's mercy, grace, kindness, protection…are virtues that should fill my heart in this season.
Thankfulness is a virtue, and I believe I am finally on my way to learning it.
During this Christmas season I am extremely thankful for Jesus Christ an for his atoning sacrifice. Before my mission I don't think I really comprehended the magnitude andmagnificence of what the Lord did for us, and I am sure there is still much I don't comprehend. But I am thankful and I rejoice daily for what my Lord and Savior did for me. Merry Christmas to my family and friends, and you too, Ezar and may you find happiness in the Lord's life during this season.
The root of Christmas lies deep in God's love. Its fruit is borne by generous hearts, confessing lips, and surrendered lives during this holy time of year.
The ultimate desire pursuit is our Lord Jesus Christ.All other desires/pursuits pale into insignifance in d light of Him.He alone is d 'satisfying portion' dat fills all needs.When u sincerely have Him,u have all.He is our satisfaction in d land of d living.Lord, i am forever grateful to You….Daluooooooo!


The group of fortresses and castles of Sureanu Mountains are also known under the name of the Dacian Fortresses of Orastie Mountains. They are situated within the central and Western part of the massif, most of them being concentrated in the basin of Gradiste river that flows out in Mures river. Here there are stone wall fortresses belonging to the Dacian fortifications system of Costesti-Cetatuie, Costesti – Blidaru, Piatra Rosie, Sarmizegetusa Regia, Banita and Capalna. They are placed on the outer edges of the Luncani Plateau – respectively of "Gornovita sculptural complex" or in their immediate neighbourhood – covering a surface area of 200 km2.
The Ancient ruins of Apa Orasului valley were known by the locals since very old times, as indicated by the frequency of the toponyms : Cetate, Cetatuie, Blidaru, Gradiste, while scholar people's interest for them was raised later. The oldest written notice referring to them, was dated in the second half of the XVIth century when the presence of a visible foundations and stone wall town situated in the mountains was noticed, not far from Orastie town. After several centuries of silence, the findings of some gold coins, in 1784-1785 and particularly after 1802, drew the attention of the authorities and then, in 1837 and 1847 the ruins were visited by some educated people. Consequently, at the beginning of the XXth century Gabor Teglas stated that Gradistea Muncelului was the last refuge of Decebal. The systematic archaeological investigations performed by expert archaeologists started only in 1924 conducted by the professor, Dimitrie Mihail Teodorescu from the University of Cluj. Since then, they have been continued, with variable interruptions under the conduct of Constantin Daicoviciu, Hadrian Daicoviciu and Ioan Glodariu and thus, today, the location of all the significant vestiges is known even if only some of them have been investigated.
The zone of the Dacian capital was inhabited only sporadically before the II a. Chr. century. The oldest findings belong to the Upper Paleolithic and were located in Cioclovina cave. It was only after several millenniums that a community of the first – Indo-Europeans, the bearers of the Cotofeni culture, and ancestors of the later Thracians, settled there – they were the creators of the brilliant civilization of Bronze Age and first Iron Age.
Among the large Thracian community, their Northern branch, namely the Get-Dacians will be characterized by specific language elements and their belief in eternal life; a significant union of their tribes settled along the Middle Course of Mures river. It is sure that, by the end of the IInd a. Chr., century and early the following one, Costesti –Cetatuie was its main centre. The economic flourishing, implicitly the political and military power of this formation was based on the wealthy Mures valley with its excellent farming lands, on the Metaliferi Mountains with gold deposits and Sureanu Mountains with iron ore deposits outcropping at surface.
Some time before the year 82 a. Chr. Burebista took the power and succeed in reuniting under his leadership most o the Dacian – Getts tribe unions and to establish a vast kingdom from the Balkans Mountains to the Forestry Carpathians and from Morava (Czech Republic of today) to the banks of Nipru, at Boristene and Olbia.


In the second lawsuit, another worker suffered injuries in his capacity as a construction worker. The employer's insurance carrier provided $566,000 to the injured man as workers' compensation benefit payments. Similar to the initial lawsuit, the injured worker and his wife filed a third-party personal injury action against the job site's general contractor and a subcontractor involved with the job. The parties entered into a tentative settlement agreement, and the lower court judge granted approval. Like the first case, the settlement agreement included a specific percentage apportioning the settlement funds to the injured worker's pain and suffering. The insurance carrier objected to the approval of a settlement containing such a term stating that its lien should apply to this amount. The insurer appealed, and the appellate court upheld the lower court's decision.
The court distinguished pain and suffering damages as compensation for an injury that is not covered under the workers' compensation system. As a result, a plaintiff who recovers pain and suffering damages from a third-party tortfeasor is not required to use these funds to reimburse a workers' compensation carrier that provided benefits to the injured worker. The court rejected the insurers' argument that this ruling provided a double recovery to the plaintiffs, noting that it would not prevent an insurer from recovering when the bulk of a settlement agreement in a third-party action was inappropriately allotted to pain and suffering damages.
If you or someone you love has suffered injuries while at work, you may be entitled to damages and workers' compensation benefits. At the Law Offices of John S. Moffa, we have helped many Massachusetts residents bring a claim against the parties responsible for their injuries. Bringing a claim against a third party and seeking workers' compensation benefits can be a daunting and complicated process. We can stand by you along each step of the way and ensure that your rights are asserted. Call us at 1-800-446-4485 or contact us online to set up your free consultation.


Despite attacks from the gay community in Guyana, Christians, Hindus, Muslims, and Bahia'is from the Inter-Religious Organization (IRO) are hitting back. The religious organizations slams last month staging of a gay and lesbian film festival in the country. According to an insider, openly gay people are increasing by the numbers in Guyana and the Religious groups are not having it.
Guyana like Jamaica is one of many Caribbean nations chastised for having anti-gay laws. The Society Against Sexual Orientation Discrimination (SASOD), a few months back filed documents in court challenging this colonial law that bans cross dressing after an incident occurred where a few gay individuals were arrested and harassed.
Laws against homosexual activities in Guyana have led to hara$$ment, discrimination, vigilante justice and high levels of HIV infection in the LGBT community, according to a report from the University of the West Indies Faculty of Law in Barbados.
This law against buggery should be ended even for the sake of only one innocent straight women who won't get infected.
Let God judge sin not the police in people's private bedrooms.


I'd like to invite you to our next Thinking Spaces: The Improvisation Reading Group and Speaker Series session. Please join us for a workshop with modern dancer, choreographer, and educator Georgia Simms at Silence (46 Essex St.) on January 29 between 2:30 and 4:30 pm. This workshop will frame movement improvisation as a practice that includes a set of skills and structures that can be used to guide physical exploration and give supportive shape to curiosity. Unleash possibilities and enjoy dancing discoveries that come from conscious interaction, intentional communication and spontaneous composition. We will move, laugh, reflect and learn together.
I hope to see you at Silence.


text:
Grosse Pointe is een plaats (city) in de Amerikaanse staat Michigan, en valt bestuurlijk gezien onder Wayne County.

Demografie
Bij de volkstelling in 2000 werd het aantal inwoners vastgesteld op 5670.
In 2010 is het aantal inwoners door het United States Census Bureau geschat op 5421.

Geografie
Volgens het United States Census Bureau beslaat de plaats een oppervlakte van 5,9 km², waarvan 2,8 km² land en 3,1 km² water. Grosse Pointe ligt op ongeveer 189 m boven zeeniveau.

Plaatsen in de nabije omgeving
De onderstaande figuur toont nabijgelegen plaatsen in een straal van 8 km rond Grosse Pointe.

Geboren
 Julie Harris (1925-2013), actrice
 Lisa LoCicero (1970), actrice
 Gregg Alexander (1970), singer-songwriter (onder meer frontman van de New Radicals) en muziekproducer
 Matt Letscher (1970), acteur
 John Lowery (John 5) (1971), gitarist (onder meer bij David Lee Roth, Marilyn Manson en Rob Zombie)
 Steven Crowder (1987), politiek commentator
 Gabby DeLoof (1996), zwemster

Externe link

Plaats in Michigan

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Farrah On My Mind
These days I'm thinking hopeful thoughts about Farrah Fawcett, the TV icon bravely battling a recurrence of cancer.
I first spotted her on the wonderful (but short-lived) detective show Harry-O(1974-76) starring David Janssen. She was a beauteous girl-next-door and she certainly stood out.
That was in 1976, the same year she burst forth as Jill Munroe on the prime time caper Charlie's Angels.
Let's face it that show was all glitter. Who cared about a sensible plot with three such lovely ladies cavorting in bikinis or running up and down the beach in their shorts? Besides Farrah there were Jaclyn Smith and Kate Jackson.
Once when chatting up Jackson she grudgingly admitted without the Farrah explosion, Charlie's Angel's would have been toast.
In a brilliant publicity coup engineered by agent Jay Bernstein posters of Farrah popped up everywhere --eventually 12 million copies were sold.
Farrah-mania was on and it was so strong Bernstein persuaded Farrah to jump to movies even though she had a contract with TV mogul Aaron Spelling.
Eventually a lawsuit settled the matter: Farrah returned to CA in a few guest spots and Cheryl Ladd took her place as younger sis Kris Munroe. On Ladd's first day on the set she wore a T-shirt that read "Farrah Fawcett Minor". Oh, dear!
Later substitutes includes Shelley Hack and Tanya Roberts but neither made much of a splash. Spelling was TV's greatest schlockmeister. He tried a variant of CA with the pilot Jo's Boys with Barbara Stanwyck as a female Charlie and three male bimbos. It was no sell.
See, a movie career never really materialized for Farrah. She was all hair and no real personality of her own. TV fame had frozen her in a time capsule. As far as basing a cviabke areer on poster art: it can't happen.
Farrah lived off her 15 minutes of fame with TV movies and in later years could be quite impressive in such teleflicks as Margaret Bourke-White and The Beate Klarsfeld Story. Just for the record she made two flop attempts at TV series comebacks: Good Sports (1991) and Chasing Farrah (2005).
I wish her well. But I'm thinking back to the emerging TV goddess who was presented to TV critics at the 1976 launch party for Charlie's Angels. Boy was she nervous that night. She giggled a lot, ate nothing, autographed stills and talked about life with Lee Majors. She was Farrah Fawcett-Majors by then and later ran off with Ryan O'Neal and shortened her name.
I'm guessing she never knew what was in store for her. She achieved great fame but it wasn't the kind of popularity she could really do much with at the time.
It took several more decades before she had any respect as an actress. And like so many TV stars of that era she never really made it in movies.
NOTE:THE PICTURE IS OF FARRAH, JACKSON AND SMITH IN 1976.
Bea Arthur Was Something Else
The Sweeps Get Swept Away
ABC's Fall Line-Up Almost In Place
CBC-TV's Fall Schedule
A Tale Of TV's Teen Hunks
It's Time For Cliffhangers!
It's Pilot Season!
Farewell to Dog River!
All The News About CBC
Heading For the Hills
Guiding Light Bows Out


text:
Nokia is working on a new digital assistant called ViKi
NewsLeaks / Rumors
By Akhil G Last updated Jul 18, 2019
It's been a while after the official announcement of the Nokia's latest smartphone Nokia 6 in China. They launched it surprisingly with a unique advanced design. The device is now official in China, but there is no information about the global availability of the device. However, Now, Nokia's return stays as the biggest headline in the tech news world.
Now, according to some sources, Nokia is working on a new digital assistant like Microsoft Cortana and Siri. The new assistant from Nokia is named as 'ViKi.' Everybody is waiting for the innovations from the old smartphone giant Nokia so that this news will be a great discussion topic for Nokia fans. The description of the ViKi says:
Software for the creation and monitoring of mobile and web digital assistants working with knowledge and combining all data sources into a single chat and voice-based interface.
Nokia has got the trademark license for the name ViKi, it is a key for the fans to imagine the features of the ViKi. However, there is no official information about the new Assistant. But stay tuned with us, we will give you more details when they are available.
nokiaVIKI
Akhil G
He is a skilled technology writer and widely-read journalist. Social media Influencer, FB India Media Partner. Managing multiple news portals and writing for many. Google Hall Of Fame award winner. Youth Icon of the year - Government of Kerala 2018.
Address: Gokul Bhavan, Maruthamala P.O, Vithura, Trivandrum, India 695551
Contact Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
Contact Phone: +917034549107
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