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11-07-16	 Bills v. Seahawks UNDER 43 Top 25-31 Loss	 -105 5 h 57 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points - Buffalo @ Seattle, Monday at 8:30 PM ET
The Seahawk defense ranks #1 in the NFL in PPG allowed at just 15.6. The only two teams that have topped 20 points against this stop unit are New Orleans & Atlanta who rank #1 and #2 in the NFL in total offense. In their other 5 games, the Seattle defense is giving up just 12 PPG. The last 2 games combined (vs Arizona & New Orleans) they've allowed just 2 TD's and one came on a short field (37 yard drive) after a turnover. Buffalo's offense has averaged 26 PPG yet they are doing so on just 333 YPG which ranks them 25th in the NFL in total offense. Thus, their scoring numbers are a bit skewed. Because they don't have a great passing QB, the Bills rely heavily on the run to set up the pass. Their run play percentage ranks 3rd in the NFL. Problem is, Seattle gives up just 87 YPG rushing on just 3.4 YPC. The Buffalo offense will struggle tonight. Seattle's offense has problems of its own. Russell Wilson is banged up and you can tell he is not 100%. They've scored just ONE offensive TD in the last two games and that includes a game vs a terrible New Orleans defense that gave up almost 500 yards to a bad SF offense yesterday. These two offenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in 3rd down conversion percentage which stops drives and leads to punts. That is very conducive to a low scoring game. We like the UNDER on Monday Night.
11-06-16	 Broncos +1 v. Raiders	 Top 20-30 Loss	 -103 27 h 6 m Show
ASA's 10* AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +1 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
Even though they are now at home, the travel schedule for the Raiders has to catch up with them and we think this is the spot. They've already played FIVE long travel/east coast games including games @ Jacksonville & @ Tampa the last 2 weeks. They stayed in Florida between those two games so they were gone for a full week and a half or so. Those long trips so far this season should result in weary legs in their first game back. Oakland is 5-0 on the road this year, however at home they are just 1-2 and their one win was by 3 points. We still feel their 6-2 record is a bit of a "farce" as they've outgained only ONE opponent all season long. Despite winning 6 of their 8 games, the Raiders point differential is just +12 which actually rates LAST in the AFC West and 14th overall in the NFL. Denver is also 6-2 but they've outgained every opponent with the exception of Atlanta & San Diego. The Broncos point differential is +58 on the season which is 2nd best in the AFC behind New England. We have a HUGE defensive edge here with Denver in this game which is huge especially when getting points. The Broncos is 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing a full 110 fewer YPG than Oakland who ranks 31st in that category. Denver has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 with the Raiders only win coming by 3 points. We like Denver to win this game outright.
11-06-16	 Saints v. 49ers OVER 52.5 Top 41-23 Win 100 23 h 40 m Show
ASA's 10* NFC TOTAL SMASH GAME OF THE WEEK
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 52.5 Points - New Orleans @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
These two defenses are terrible. They rank last (SF) and 2nd to last (N.O.) in scoring defense allowing 30.7 & 31.3 PPG respectively. The Saints offense hasn't had huge outputs the last two weeks (24 & 20 points) but that's because they played two of the top defenses in the NFL (KC & Seattle). The Chiefs are 8th in the league in scoring defense and Seattle is 2nd. Before last week, the Saints had topped 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and we'd have to expect them to do the same here vs a SF defense that has given up 33 or more in 5 of their last 6. The Niners offense has struggled but with 2 weeks off we think Chip Kelly will have some new wrinkles to get them moving against a Saint defense that has allowed 27 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Another key factor here will be pace of play. We expect a large number of offensive plays in this one as SF is #1 in pace this year running a play every 23.95 seconds and New Orleans is 4th in pace averaging a play every 26.05 seconds. This one has all the makings of a high scoring game and we'll take the OVER.
11-06-16	 Eagles +2.5 v. Giants	 Top 23-28 Loss	 -100 20 h 34 m Show
ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE WEEK
ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We're siding with the better team here getting points. This line insinuates that these two teams would be dead even (or very close to that) on a neutral field. We have Philly rated as the better team so the line value is with the Eagles in our opinion. The Eagles are just 4-3 but have the top point differential in the entire NFC and 2nd best in the NFL at +62. The Giants are also 4-3 but they are -8 in point differential. Last week, the Eagles led @ Dallas, whom many consider to be the top team in the NFC, for nearly the entire 2nd half including holding a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas scored a TD late to push the game into OT where the Cowboys won 29-23. Expect Philly to bounce back with a big effort here after that tough loss. The Giants are 1-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and 2-1 SU with their wins coming by 3 over New Orleans and by 4 over Baltimore. New York is historically one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 24-31-1 ATS record at home since October of 2009. This is simply a bad match up for the Giants. They can't run the ball at all (dead last in the NFL at 70 YPG) and they are facing a Philly pass defense that ranks as the most efficient in the NFL (Football Outsiders). We look for a New York offense, that has already been held to 17 points or less four times this year, to struggle with this Eagle defense. Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and we'll call for them to win again.
11-05-16	 Iowa v. Penn State -6 Top 14-41 Win 100 9 h 7 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #406
While it is true that Iowa does have a long winning streak on the road in regular season games, it is also true that the Hawkeyes have only gone 5-5 overall their last 10 games since starting last season 12-0. It is also true that Iowa is sorely missing their senior wide receiver, Matt VandeBerg, who is out with a foot injury. Even though the Hawkeyes have an excellent quarterback in C.J. Beathard, the trouble is that he's got a very inexperienced wide receiver group to throw to. That sets this game up as a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Hawkeyes had their big year last season (even though it ended in disappointment) and the fact is they never won more than 8 games in a season the five prior seasons. As for the Nittany Lions, they brought in new coordinators and a pair of new position coaches after the 2015 season. It took a little time for everyone to get on the same page this season but this is also head coach James Franklin's third year with Penn State and things have indeed come together. Penn State has won 4 straight games (including a win over Ohio State) and the Nittany Lions have averaged 38.3 points per game in those four victories. Penn State has won all 5 of their home games this season and, even though the Hawkeyes have won all 3 of their road games this season, a close look shows reason for concern as Iowa now faces the Nittany Lions in a night game at Beaver Stadium where Happy Valley will be rocking with a raucous atmosphere. The Hawkeyes only beat Rutgers (a team that is actually an embarrassment to the Big Ten) by a score of 14-7 and the Scarlet Knights actually outgained Iowa in that game. In their next road game Iowa only beat Minnesota by a 7 point margin as the Hawkeyes were held to 321 yards of offense in that game. Though the Hawkeyes did win big over Purdue (another bad Big Ten team), Iowa gave up 458 passing yards to the Boilermakers. Penn State has played a much tougher schedule than Iowa has as the Nittany Lions have had to do battle with teams like the Buckeyes and Michigan (each team undefeated other than Ohio State's loss to PSU). Two of Penn State's other Big Ten games included Purdue and Minnesota and the Nittany Lions obliterated them by a combined score of 100 to 38. As you can see, there is a big difference between the offensive firepower of these two teams. Iowa's inexperienced wide receiver corps continues to be a problem and Penn State is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry in home games so the run defense will force the Hawkeyes to try and beat the Nittany Lions through the air and we don't see that happening. Iowa has been held to 21 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Penn State, excluding the Michigan game, has averaged 37 points per game in their other 7 games this season. Looking at the Nittany Lions last 4 games, their offense struggled at times against Ohio State but PSU averaged 502 yards per game in the other 3 games. The point is that this offense is clicking, this is a home night game, and this line is a very manageable number in a game that the Nittany Lions should win by a multiple TD margin. Penn State is on a 7-0 ATS run when they are a home favorite and off of a game where they covered the spread by more than 14 points. Filled with confidence after putting up 62 points in an easy cover at Purdue last week, the Nittany Lions offense keeps rolling this week. Iowa is off of their bye week but their loss at home against Wisconsin the prior week was very telling. Even though they were catching the Badgers off of back to back hard-fought games against Michigan and Ohio State, the Hawkweyes not only lost the game 17-9, they were outgained by 187 yards by Wisconsin! The final scored easily could have been much worse if the Badgers had executed better in the red zone. This final score, on the road and facing a red hot offense, will indeed be worse for Iowa. We'll lay the points with Penn State for a TOP PLAY in a game we expect will turn into a blowout in the 2nd half!
11-03-16	 Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs	 Top 43-28 Win 100 8 h 45 m Show
PLAY ON: ATLANTA FALCONS (minus) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tonight we play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Earlier this season the Falcons hosted the Bucs and lost 31-24 as a -2.5 point favorite. That was the first game of the season and considering how these two teams have played since then the oddsmakers have only adjusted the Falcons as 1.5 points better? Now we get the Falcons playing with same season revenge laying a short number against an inferior team. Atlanta has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL in terms of Total yards and they've accomplished that after facing Denver, Seattle and Green Bay who rank in the top 7 in the NFL in Total defense. Now the Dirty Birds face a Bucs defense that just gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Raiders last Sunday. Tampa Bay allows 5.9 yards per play which is 25th in the league and an average of 379 yards per game which is 26th worst. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact the Bucs have faced 3 of the six worst offenses in the league! Not to mention the Bucs defense will be tired here following a short week coming off a game where they were on the field for 83 plays (league average 64.3). Tampa doesn't have an offense capable of trading points with the Falcons either as they are in the bottom half of the league in Total O, 27th in yards per play and average 21.7PPG which is 19th in the NFL. Atlanta does not have a great history as a chalk but they are coming off 4 close games against good teams: Denver, Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay after beating three lesser teams by 7, 13 and 15 points. Tampa is 0-5 ATS their last five at home and have failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 10PPG. Lay the points on the road with Atlanta.
10-31-16	 Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 Top 10-20 Win 100 7 h 34 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points - Minnesota @ Chicago, Monday at 8:30 PM ET
Two division opponents who know each other very well lends to the UNDER here. Here we have two very solid defenses and two inept offenses for the most part. Minnesota ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense. Surprisingly to most, Chicago's defense has been solid this year ranking 13th in total defense and 10th in YPP defense. Offensively, these teams are among the worst in the NFL. Chicago ranks dead last in scoring putting up just 15.9 PPG. They have topped 17 points only once all season and that was against a bad Indy defense. Even in that game they only reached 23. The Minnesota offense ranks only ahead of San Francisco averaging less than 300 YPG of total offense. The Vikings average 21.5 PPG which is 20th in the NFL, however if their defense has a lot to do with that. In fact, if you subtract their 4 defensive/special teams TD's this year they are averaging only 17.5 PPG. Because neither of these teams like the up tempo, fast paced game, they average very few offensive plays per game. Chicago averages only 59 plays per game (30th in the NFL) and Minnesota just 64 (18th in the NFL). A slower paced game with low numbers of offensive plays obviously normally leads to lower scoring games. These two have gone UNDER the number in 7 of their last 9 meetings and we see another low scoring affair tonight. Take the UNDER.
10-30-16	 Packers v. Falcons -3 Top 32-33 Loss	 -104 28 h 32 m Show
ASA's 10* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH
ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta -3 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
With Green Bay's injuries in the defensive backfield, this become a very bad match up for them. The Packers will be down their 3 top corners on Sunday which will make it awfully tough to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company. The two CB's who will be starting for the Packers on Sunday will be two guys who normally wouldn't even see the field if the injuries hadn't occurred. Atlanta's offense has been fantastic this year. They lead the NFL in scoring (32.7 PPG), total offense (433 YPG), and yards per play offense (6.8). They are coming off consecutive losses so the Falcons will be playing with urgency here at home. They've played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL to date already playing 4 road games against the likes of Seattle, Denver, and Oakland. We're not sure the Green Bay offense can keep up in this one. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (21st in total offense) and they have very little running game with Lacy & Starks both injured. WR Ty Montgomery who has been filling in at RB at times was sick for much of the week as well. He should play but practiced little this week. We have a team in Atlanta that averages over 30 PPG against a tough schedule vs Green Bay, a team that has topped 30 only once all season and they have faced the 31st toughest schedule so far this year. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games and this simply isn't the Green Bay team of old. Atlanta is the better team and at home here. We'll lay the low number.
10-30-16	 Patriots -6 v. Bills	 Top 41-25 Win 100 24 h 6 m Show
ASA's 10* AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
As we stated last week we thought Buffalo was a bit over rated and their recent solid play (heading into last week) was a product of their opponents. They had beaten this New England team who had a rookie QB starting, then topped the LA Rams who have very little offense, and then beat San Fran who is obviously just a bad team in general. Last week we jumped on Miami +2.5 at home over Buffalo and were rewarded with a nice win. What looked like a close game, really shouldn't have been. The Fins dominated outgained Buffalo by nearly 200 yards a full 2 YPP. Now they have to face an angry New England team that has their 16-0 loss to Buffalo just a few weeks ago at the forefront. You can bet Brady & Company, even though he didn't play in the first game, have been waiting patiently for this one. Belichick is a master in revenge games especially in division play where he is a near perfect 18-3 ATS his last 21 in that situation. Despite their earlier loss this season, the Pats have absolutely dominated Buffalo with a 30-3 SU record the last 33 meetings. Since Brady has returned, New England is 3-0 SU & ATS winning all 3 by double digits. Since he's come back Brady has been lights out completing 75% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and 8 TD's (no interceptions). The Bills offense was being carried by RB LeSean McCoy during their winning streak and with him being limited to just 8 carries last week, they gained only 267 total yards on just 4.7 YPP. McCoy is doubtful this week and even if he plays, he'll be ineffective with a bad hamstring. With this line sitting under a TD, we really like New England in this spot.
10-29-16	 Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 Top 17-23 Loss	 -115 25 h 6 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #172
The Badgers are definitely battle tested having already played 4 Top 10 teams (at the time they played them) on the season. The teams that Wisconsin has played this season currently have a combined 23-6 record and two of those six losses came at the hands of these Badgers. They are off a nice win @ Iowa in a game Wisky dominated more than the final score indicated. Wisconsin outgained Iowa by nearly 200 yards but struggled in the red zone making the game closer than it should have been. The Badgers got inside Iowa's 35 yard line on four of their first five drives and came away with only 7 points. The defense continued to dominate holding Iowa to 3.9 yards per play. A week before that they outplayed Ohio State in an OT loss here at Camp Randall. The atmosphere was electric for that game and you can expect the same here. The Badgers have 2 Big Ten losses, both by just a TD to Ohio State & Michigan, but have a ton still to play for. If they win out, they will almost assuredly win the Big Ten West and head to the Conference Championship game. They would need to beat the Huskers, which they would obviously do by running the table, and have Nebraska lose one more game. That will most likely happen next week when Nebraska travels to Ohio State. The defense continues to shine for Wisconsin. They have held their opponents to 128 fewer yards than what they are averaging against other foes. They lost leading tackler LB Cichy last week for the season but Wisky is loaded at the LB spot so no big dropoff is expected. Nebraska is undefeated yet they have played a VERY easy schedule. It could be argued their best win this season was at home vs Oregon. The Huskers won that game 35-32 in what looked like a solid win. However, the Ducks have proven to be WAY down this year and actually have lost 4 straight since that game. Nebraska's Big Ten wins have come against Northwestern (when the Cats were playing poorly), Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue. Overall their 7 wins have come against teams that have a combined 20-30 record and only two of those teams, Wyoming & NW, currently are above.500. Last week they struggled with Purdue as the Boilers led at halftime in Lincoln. The Huskers only put up 157 yards on the ground against a Purdue defense that had allowed 300+ yards rushing in THREE STRAIGHT GAMES! This team will struggle to get anything going on the ground vs Wisconsin so keeping the game close will fall on QB Armstrong's shoulders. He's prone to making mistakes and we have a feeling he will do just that on Saturday with no ground game supporting him. Wisconsin has hammered Nebraska each time they've played in Camp Randall by final scores of 59-24, 70-31, and 48-17. The home crowd will be huge and we like the Badgers to roll again here.
10-27-16	 Jaguars v. Titans -3 Top 22-36 Win 100 8 h 42 m Show
We will play on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday evening. Jacksonville was expected to be an explosive offensive team this year considering the wealth of talent on that side of the football they have but it just hasn't been the case. The Jags are 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, 24th in scoring at 19.5PPG (down from 23.5 last year) and average just 324 total yards of 'O' per game which is 27th in the NFL and a full 24 less yards than a season ago. While the Jags have gotten worse offensively, the Titans have gotten better. The Titans are 14th in the league in yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards per game and average more points than they did a year ago. Defensively these two team are very similar with Jacksonville ranking 9th overall in Total 'D' and the Titans ranking 10th in that same category. The biggest advantage for the Titans we feel is the running game tonight. When you can control the football and convert on 3rd downs you're going to have a much better shot at winning the game. The Titans have DeMarco Murray who is 3rd in the league in total rushing yards and leads a Tennessee offense that runs for 143YPG at a 4.9 yard per carry average. Conversely the Jags are one of the worst rushing teams in the league averaging just 76.6YPG at 3.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee converts 46.24% of their 3rd down attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Jacksonville is last in the league in converting 3rd downs at just 27.63%. The short week and travel will certainly hurt a Jags team that is just 5-27 SU their last 32 on the road. The home team has won 4 in a row in this series and backing the home team with the short number is the way to go here.
10-24-16	 Texans v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 Top 9-27 Win 100 6 h 14 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40.5 Points - Houston @ Denver
Two bottom eight offenses vs to top eight defenses lead us the under tonight. The Texans offense is rank dead last in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Denver isn't much better ranked 23rd in the same category. Houston averages just 18 PPG which ranks them right near the bottom of the league. Last week they scored 26 in their overtime win vs Indy. Let's not forget that the Colt defense is one of the worst in the NFL AND that Houston had just 9 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. They scored 2 TD's late to send the game to OT and picked up the 26-23 win. A very deceiving final to say the least. They struggled to score against a bad Indy defense so how will they do tonight on the road against a top 5 defense in Denver? Probably not good. We don't expect the Denver offense to do any better. They have scored just 16 & 13 points the last two weeks vs lower tier defenses (Atlanta & San Diego). However, the Bronco defense held those two high scoring teams to just 21 and 23 points respectively. With two below average QB's at the helm tonight (Osweiler & Siemian), we don't expect many explosive plays in the passing game. UNDER is the play tonight.
10-23-16	 Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons	 Top 33-30 Win 100 27 h 39 m Show
AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them. If there was ever a game they wouldn't show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it. The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks. They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle. On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend. In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn't quite what we thought. Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season. They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well. The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record. They've led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point. Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they've had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game. On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they've been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary. This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation. We'll call for a tight game and wouldn't at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here.
10-23-16	 Bills v. Dolphins +3 Top 25-28 Win 100 24 h 35 m Show
AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH
The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh. Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control. The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards. Most wouldn't know it but Miami's offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they've been outgained in 4 of those 6 games. They've been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD's the last 2 games. Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here. Even if he does, he's not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited. That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense. Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed. They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers. Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB. Then it was the "offenseless" Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6. Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense. Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking. Miami wins this one.
10-22-16	 Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn	 Top 3-56 Loss	 -104 24 h 52 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Auburn Tigers Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #401
Auburn is getting a lot of positive press right now as they've won 3 straight and it all started with the big win over LSU. That was the game that got Les Miles fired but, as impressive as that win may seem, the fact is that it was LSU's fourth straight ATS loss. The point is that LSU, with Miles, was overvalued. So now we take a look at who else Auburn has beaten. The Tigers other wins included victories over Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe but those are two Sun Belt Conference teams that are a combined 4-8 on the season. Auburn's other win, and most recent, was over a Mississippi State team that is only 2-4 on the season and also is the worst team in the SEC West. Now, Auburn is off of a bye and over-confident after, arguably, having not beaten really anyone! LSU was not performing well at all under Miles so one could easily put an asterisk by that victory. The Tigers are in for a tough test with Arkansas coming in for a visit. While it is true that the Razorbacks schedule has been tough (some physical games recently) they do have a bye week on deck. That said, Bret Bielema's team, buoyed by the confidence-building win over Ole Miss (as a 10 point dog!) last week, is going to definitely "leave it all on the field" as they know they can worry about resting up after the game with the help of the upcoming bye week. Arkansas has proven time and time again to be a dangerous dog under Bielema. His first season in Arkansas, 2013, was an adjustment year but, since then, the Razorbacks won 7 games in 2014 and 8 games in 2015. The last 4 times they were a dog in 2015 they not only covered but they won 3 of the 4 games outright. This season, the Razorbacks have had outright wins over the Rebels and over TCU and they were a double digit dog in each game. Once again Arkansas is not being given enough respect here. Yes they lost by 19 to Alabama but the Crimson Tide are, of course, the #1 team in the country. As for the other Razorbacks loss, that came at Texas A & M, and the 45-24 final score doesn't tell the "full" story in that one. The Razorbacks, LATE in 3rd quarter, were getting ready to punch it in near the A & M goal line to go up 24-17. Unbelievably, they not only failed to do that but A & M got them to turn it over on downs and then the Aggies struck for a huge TD play of 90+ yards. Just like that, Arkansas entered the 4th quarter down 24-17 instead of up 24-17. Momentum can be huge in football and that was certainly a big momentum swing in that ball game. Arkansas has only two losses on the season and both were to undefeated teams (A & M and Alabama). They were on track to beat the Aggies on the road before things came unraveled. The Razorbacks have moved on from that game and getting that all important first SEC win last week versus Ole Miss has them fully confident they can get another before their bye week. Arkansas has Austin Allen at QB and he is leading the SEC in both passing yards (1,861) and TDs (18). What is most impressive about him is what he has done against some tougher competition while Auburn's Sean White has 5 passing TD's against Sun Belt teams and then only has had ONE passing TD in his other 4 games. Arkansas is on a 7-2 ATS run as a road dog. The Tigers defensive coordinator (Kevin Steele) was the DC at LSU last year when Bret Bielema's team put up 440 yards at LSU in a 31-17 win as a TD underdog! To put that in perspective, that was LSU's worst home loss since 2008. Look for Steele to again struggle to stop the dangerous Razorbacks offense as this Arkansas team has totaled 1,000 passing yards in their 3 games against Alabama, Texas A & M, and Ole Miss. That is impressive (to say the least!) and we expect the Razorbacks to absolutely be in this one all the way. Another outright upset would not be a complete surprise. We'll grab the generous points with the very dangerous road dog for a TOP PLAY in this one!
10-17-16	 Jets +7 v. Cardinals	 Top 3-28 Loss	 -102 5 h 17 m Show
PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more. Grab the points with the Jets.
10-16-16	 Colts v. Texans -2.5 Top 23-26 Win 100 29 h 4 m Show
ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston's foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here.
10-15-16	 Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston	 Top 31-38 Win 100 26 h 8 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Houston Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #159
The Cougars had their bubble burst in the loss at Navy last week. Of course Houston is saying all the right things in terms of not letting that impact them this week and going forward but the fact is that this was a very deflating loss. Houston's hopes of being a playoff team this season and going for the national championship went out the window with the loss to the Midshipmen. With the "hang over" effect of last week's loss, it would not be surprising to see the Cougars struggle to put away Tulsa this week. The Golden Hurricane have a high octane offense and they are led by a solid senior QB. Tulsa signal caller Dane Evans has already thrown for 1,135 yards this season and 9 touchdowns. The key to the value with grabbing the big points in this match-up is the fact that the Golden Hurricane are fully capable of trading scores with the Cougars. Houston had a huge win over an over-matched Texas State team earlier this season but their other 5 games have seen the Cougars score no more than 42 points in a game. That is significant here because Tulsa (other than a game where they faced one of the nation's best - Ohio State), has scored at least 43 points in each of their other 4 games. The point is that if this game plays out in a similar fashion to the way these two offenses have been producing points all season long, a 38-35 game would not be a surprise at all. The Cougars defense allowed over 300 yards on the ground to Navy last week and the Houston D previously allowed at least 273 yards through the air in each of their other three games against FBS foes (excluding Texas State as mentioned earlier). So against quality offenses, Houston has stopped no one this season. Tulsa is a very dangerous offense that can move the ball both through the air and on the ground and they are adjusting well in Philip Montgomery's second season as the head coach. Home field has not meant a lot in match-ups between these two teams as the road team has notched the straight-up win in 5 of the last 6 meetings! The only home win in recent seasons was decided by just 10 points when the Cougars (-19.5) won here in Houston two years ago and that was the 3rd straight home game in which they failed to cover when hosting Tulsa. Of course you can tell by the big O/U number (currently 73) on this game that a lot of points are expected to be scored. That is significant because Tulsa fares very well in games like this as they are 5-1 ATS in road games with a total of 70 points or more while Houston is only 1-3 ATS in home games with a total of 70 points or more. Look for the Golden Hurricane to hang tough throughout this game and a 1 TD loss (2 TD margin at most) is what we're forecasting here. We'll grab the generous points with the very dangerous road dog for a TOP PLAY in this one!
10-13-16	 Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 44 Top 13-21 Win 100 8 h 32 m Show
Tonight we play UNDER in the Broncos @ Chargers game. The Chargers are 8th in total offense this year averaging 373YPG and second in scoring at 30.4PPG. So why wouldn't we like 'over' in this contest with a potent offense like the Chargers? It's because San Diego's offensive numbers are really misleading as they've played the 3 worst defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed per game as Oakland, New Orleans and Indy all give up over 410YPG. Tonight the Chargers face a Denver 'D' that allows just 301YPG and 17.4PPG and it's going to be tough moving the ball here. The Broncos just faced a Falcons offense that is the best in the NFL and held them to 23 points so they should contain a Chargers 'O' here. Denver learned last week they must protect starting QB Trevor Siemian as rookie Paxton Lynch just isn't ready for the NFL yet. That means a heavy dose of the running game and a ball control offense in this game. The Broncos are 21st in the league in plays per game at 62.8 while the Chargers are 26th at 61.6. Less plays means less scoring opportunities and a lower scoring game. The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings overall in this series and 5 of the last six on this field. Our math model projects 42 or less points tonight.
10-10-16	 Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 Top 17-14 Loss	 -101 6 h 54 m Show
Tonight we play OVER in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers game. Can you name all the teams in the NFL that average more plays per game than these two teams? ZERO! TBay averages 71 plays per game while the Panthers average 70.5. More plays and faster paced offense clearly leads to more scoring opportunities. Both teams have several key injuries to their running backs but that won't change their offensive philosophies as they both prefer to throw the football. Tampa Bay is 1st in the NFL in passing attempts per game at 44.2 while the Panthers are 7th at 39.2. Obviously Panthers starting QB Cam Newton is out for this game but we like the value it gives us on the number. Backup QB Derek Anderson played offensive series against Atlanta and went 17 of 23 for 172 yards with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. Breaking down those series he led the Panthers on drives of 9 plays for 94 yards and a TD. 11 plays 75 yards and a TD. Threw a pick 6 (which helps over bettors) and threw another INT on his last series. With Anderson running the offense the Panthers averaged 7.4 yards per play which would be better than everyone in the NFL. The Bucs offense is averaging below 20PPG but they've faced three defenses that rank in the top half of the league in points allowed per game defensively. After allowing just 19.5PPG last season the Panthers defense is giving up a whopping 29.5PPG this year which is 5th worst in the NFL. Speaking of defense...or lack of defense, the Bucs are giving up 32PPG which is 2nd to last in the league, allow 5.5 yards per play (19th) and 1 point for every 11.1 yards gained by an opponent which is 31st in the NFL. Tampa Bay QB Winston has 23 INT's since the start of last season which is the 3rd most in that time (Bortles 24, Fitzpatrick 25) which could lead to a few short scoring opportunities for the Panthers. Last year in two meetings these same two teams combined for 48 and 60 total points and Bucs on 5-2 'over' streak while Panthers 'over' in 4 of last five at home. Bet here is OVER!
10-09-16	 Giants v. Packers UNDER 48.5 Top 16-23 Win 100 22 h 30 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 - NY Giants @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
People continue to view Green Bay as a high scoring juggernaut on offense. The fact is, this is not nearly the same offense they put on the field 2 years ago when the put up 30 PPG. Last year they struggled mightily on offense scoring just 23 PPG a full TD down from the year before. This year while they are scoring 25 PPG, their offense is again struggling. They are averaging only 293 YPG which is 29th in the NFL ahead of only Minnesota, San Fran, and the LA Rams. On a yards per play basis, the Pack are putting up only 5.1 YPP which is 25th in the league. Even when the tallied 34 points in their most recent game vs Detroit, the Packers totaled only 325 yards. On the other side, the Giants offense is scoring just 18 PPG on the year (27th in the NFL) and has been held to 20 points or less in 3 of their 4 games. The only time they topped 20 points was a 27 point output against Washington who ranks 29th in the NFL in total defense. Three of their four games have come against poor defenses (New Orleans & Dallas along with Washington) and their scoring numbers are still poor. We think they'll struggle against a decent Green Bay defense coming off a bye week. This is the highest total thus far on the season for Green Bay and the second highest for New York, only behind their game vs New Orleans (54 points) which ended 16-13. We like UNDER in this one.
10-09-16	 Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins	 Top 30-17 Win 100 23 h 49 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4. The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season. Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL). Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders). That's bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL). The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses. They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost. They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss. Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they've faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team. Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless. The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation. Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games. We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright. Take the points.
10-09-16	 Eagles v. Lions UNDER 46 Top 23-24 Loss	 -107 4 h 14 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points - Philadelphia @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
The Philly defense has allowed a TOTAL of 27 points this season in 10 games! That includes holding an extremely potent Pittsburgh offense to just 3 points and 251 total yards in their most recent game. The Eagle defense has allowed just 2 offensive TD's so far this season. They face a struggling Detroit offense that has scored a total of 4 offensive TD's in their last 3 games. The Lions are "averaging" 23.8 PPG mostly due to the fact they put up 39 in their opening game against a bad Indy defense that ranks 30th allowing 31 PPG. Detroit's last 3 games have come against defenses ranked 19th, 17th, and 14th yet they still only put up 4 offensive TD's in those games. Now they face the #1 defense in the NFL. Philly's offense has looked very good but they still have a rookie QB and we look for them to be conservative on the road. The Eagles are the slowest paced offense in the NFL averaging a snap every 31.5 seconds. New head coach Doug Peterson tries to "shorten" the game, not make mistakes, and let his defense win it. The Detroit defense gave up some points to Green Bay & Indy, however in their other two games they held Tennessee to 16 and Chicago to 17. This total is set at 46 which is basically the same total the oddsmakers set when Philly hosted Pitt in their most recent game. The Steelers offense is far superior to the Lions and we think this is set too high. Take the UNDER here.
10-08-16	 Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford	 Top 42-16 Win 100 11 h 31 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407
Cougars head coach Mike Leach is in his 5th year with Washington State. He undoubtedly has his best team yet as the Cougars returned 47 lettermen including 14 starters from last year's team. Leach has built this program now with the right personnel in the right places and they are stronger now on both sides of the ball than they have ever been in his tenure. This game is circled in red on Leach's calendar. The Cougars almost beat Stanford last season but fell short by a missed field goal in the two point loss. Not only that but the biggest key of all as to why this game means so much to the Cougars and to Leach is the fact that the Cardinal are the only Pac-12 team that he has yet to defeat during his tenure at Washington State. While the "Air Raid" offense will be able to fully execute on a clear, calm night with perfect weather conditions expected at Stanford, there are two other keys with this Cougars team that make them far superior to the Washington State teams that Stanford has faced in the past. The Cougars defense did improve last season (sizable improvement) but they also are even more improved this year. Washington State is starting to put it all together in their 2nd year under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Make no mistake about it the average yards allowed per game on the season may not be that impressive but the Cougars have faced some tough offenses and, in fact, Washington State has held their foes to 84 yards per game less than what those teams have averaged in their other games. Washington State started this season, just like last year, with a disappointing loss to an FCS foe. However, just like last season, they have responded and last week's 651 to 426 yardage edge in the Cougars 51 to 33 win over Oregon was their most complete game yet. We mentioned Washington State's improvement on defense being a key and the other key is that the running game has now gone for an average of 254 yards per game in their past two games. With defenses having to focus so much on the Air Raid offense, the ability of this team to now pick up huge yards on the ground makes Leach's offense even that much more dangerous. The Cougars are an incredible 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games against FBS foes and Washington State has thrived in the underdog role with a fantastic mark of 13-3 ATS their last 16 games as a road dog. While things are very quiet on the Cougars injury front (good news!), the Cardinal have issues on BOTH sides of the ball with injuries. Stanford is banged up off of their loss to Washington. While it may seem enticing to back Stanford off of a loss the fact is that the Cardinal are hurting both physically and psychologically off of that demoralizing 44-6 loss to the Huskies. Also, Stanford is on an 0-4 ATS run in their games that follow facing Washington. Additionally, when off of a loss by a double digit margin, the Cardinal track record is not good as they have actually gone 1-7 ATS when off of a loss by 10 points or more and in conference action. Everything is lined up perfect for this to finally be "the year" for Leach's Cougars and we expect an outright upset which makes this one a very strong play for us. We'll grab the generous points with the very dangerous road dog in this one!
10-06-16	 Cardinals -3 v. 49ers	 Top 33-21 Win 100 29 h 43 m Show
PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it!
10-03-16	 Giants +4.5 v. Vikings	 Top 10-24 Loss	 -110 8 h 14 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET
The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD's the entire season. While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games. We think their first loss comes tonight. The Giants have a big edge offensively. They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play. New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS. The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17. The game wasn't nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays. Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover. Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards. The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn't get back into it. Let's face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they've been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season. They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don't look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense. The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season. They are far superior offensively, as we've stated, and while Minny's defense is better, it's not by a wide margin. We'll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight.
10-02-16	 Chiefs v. Steelers -4 Top 14-43 Win 100 30 h 38 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week. The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game. Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night. We are not sold on KC. They're games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York's EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers. The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD). They've scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games. We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week. Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year's trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured). Pitt RB Le'veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week. Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss. We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game. Of Pittsburgh's last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD. The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can't keep up. Lay it with the Steelers.
10-02-16	 Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 Top 27-17 Loss	 -110 22 h 2 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion. First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC. The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions. NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game. Expect a big bounce back at home this week. Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier. QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle. Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%. That's a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. Seattle's offensive line is bad. They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line. With Wilson's mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense. Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3. If Wilson doesn't play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin. Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don't favor the Hawks here. This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season. Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition. They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home. New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year. Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look. Take the Jets.
10-02-16	 Browns v. Redskins OVER 47 Top 20-31 Win 100 22 h 1 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Cleveland @ Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We look for a shootout here. After a terrible offensive showing in week 1 vs Philly, the Browns offense has played well the last 2 weeks. In hindsight, we understand the 10 spot vs the Eagle defense as they have been dominant allowing only 17 points in 2 games since. Cleveland actually outgained Baltimore & Miami each of the last 2 weeks and scored 44 points combined putting up 817 yards on the process. We really like the way the Washington offense is playing as well. They've scored 23 & 29 points the last 2 weeks and they've actually had chances to put up quite a bit more. They've left quite a few points on the field. To give you an idea, the Skins have punted only 4 times in the last 2 games. So we have two offenses that are playing well vs two bad defenses. Both stop units are allowing over 400 YPG and they sit at or over 6 YPP allowed. Cleveland has allowed 29, 25, and 30 points. Washington has allowed 38, 27, and 27 points. This number is set too low. Take the OVER.
10-01-16	 Utah v. California -2.5 Top 23-28 Win 100 45 h 46 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California (-) over Utah, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #184
Nice spot here to grab the small home fave. Cal wants this game badly. Last season when these teams met, both of them were undefeated and the Golden Bears ended up on the wrong end of the scoreboard 30-24. That ended California's 5-0 start to the season and sent them into a tailspin where they lost 5 of 6 games. Cal hasn't forgotten about what happened last year and now they get a chance to return the favor as they host an undefeated and ranked Utah team. The Utes certainly are off to a strong start this season but they have played a weaker schedule than have the Bears. Also, Utah has been fortunate in a pair of tight wins as they defeated BYU by only a single point and the Utes had to rally last week to sneak by USC 31-27. The home team in the Utah/Cal series has won all 5 games and this is California's homecoming game. They are fired up for more reasons than one and the big edge they have will be through the air. Utah's defense gets a lot of positive press but they allowed 258.2 passing yards per game last season which ranked them 103rd in the country. This season they have not faced anything close to the passing attack they will face this week. California is averaging nearly 600 yards of offense per game and they get over 450 yards of that through the air. The Utes secondary is a major concern and the Golden Bears have thrived under QB Davis Webb. The transfer (from Texas Tech) has excelled in the offense installed by new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and it certainly has shown in the insane numbers being put up from week to week. Cal is averaging 45.5 points per game so far this season and the Utes simply won't be able to keep up. Utah can't "trade scores" with the Golden Bears and Cal's strength on offense attacks the Utes weakness. Though California is only 2-2 on the season they outgained both foes they lost to. Certainly the Golden Bears defense is not their strength but Utah just doesn't have the explosiveness on offense to keep up in this one. Dating back to their win last season over Cal, the Utes have not scored more than 35 points in any of their last 13 games. California, dating back to last season, has scored at least 40 points in 7 of their last 8 games. The Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS in games where they are a home fave against a team with a winning percentage of .666 or better. The Utes come in undefeated but will leave with Cal having improved that ATS mark to 9-2. Expect a very strong effort here from California off of a loss and they get their revenge. A win by a double digit margin here would not be a surprise so we are happy to lay the small number in this one.
09-29-16	 Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 46 Top 7-22 Loss	 -105 6 h 50 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Miami @ Cincinnati, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET
Cincy has struggled to put points on the board this year but they have put up solid yardage. They have scored 16, 17, and 23 points, however against defenses not named Denver, the Bengals have averaged almost 400 YPG (397 to be exact). They are obviously moving the ball averaging over 6 YPP so the points will come in due time. That starts tonight vs a Miami defense that has looked shaky the last 2 weeks. The Fins have allowed 31 & 24 points each of the last 2 weeks vs teams with big inexperience at the QB position. Last week Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler put up 24 points and 244 yards passing in his first ever start. A week earlier, the Pats Jimmy Garoppolo put up 31 points and 233 yards passing in his 2nd start ever. Both teams eclipsed 400 yards of total offense on Miami's defense. We look for Cincy to do the same. Offensively, Miami has actually looked very good since their tough outing to start the season @ Seattle. In the last 2 games they've topped 400 yards in each and scored 24 & 30 points. The Bengal defense has been a disappointment this year allowed 22 or more points in all 3 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in pace averaging one snap every 25 seconds. This line has risen from 44 to 46.5 and we agree with the move. It hasn't moved enough in our opinion and we'll grab the OVER.
09-25-16	 Ravens v. Jaguars +1 Top 19-17 Loss	 -106 24 h 14 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner. We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid. They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one. After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday. They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14. However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in. We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut. Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn't nearly as important to them. Let's face it. The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game. They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week. The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20. The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home. Jags are the play here.
09-25-16	 Vikings v. Panthers -7 Top 22-10 Loss	 -102 24 h 9 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers.
09-25-16	 Lions v. Packers OVER 47 Top 27-34 Win 100 24 h 54 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Detroit @ Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Being located in Wisconsin we obviously pay extra attention to the Packers and after two horrible offensive showings we expect a breakout game for Rodgers and company on Sunday against a banged up Lions defense. On the other side of the ball we expect the Lions to put up points too in what sets up to be a high scoring shootout. Green Bay's pass defense has been suspect at best and will be tested here by the Lions and QB Stafford who is completing 67% of his pass attempts (8th best in the NFL) for 285 yards per game (7th best). The Packers have allowed 277 yards passing per game which is 20th worst in the league. In contrast to Stafford, Aaron Rodgers is completing just 57% of his pass attempts which is 29th worst in the NFL for 189.5 yards per game (31st) which is clearly and aberration. The Lions are 5th overall in the NFL at 6.3 yards per play while the Packers are 30th at 4.5YPPL, again the Packers number is not the norm. Detroit is without their three starting linebackers which will provide opportunities for short underneath routes to the tightends and running backs out of the backfield. Both of these teams played in low scoring games last week after the Packers/Jags combined for 50 points in week #1 while the Lions/Colts combined for 74 points. These two NFC North rivals will revert back to how they played in week #1 in what should be a shootout.
09-24-16	 Washington -12 v. Arizona	 Top 35-28 Loss	 -112 47 h 46 m Show
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington (-) over Arizona, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET
Fantastic road rout set up in this one. Arizona's defense continues to struggle on a weekly basis and now faces their toughest test yet. The Wildcats allowed over 400 yards in a season-opening loss to BYU and followed this up by allowing Grambling to amass over 400 passing yards in week two. Then Hawaii got to the Cats D for over 400 yards of offense last week. It should come as no surprise that, as a result of their shortcomings on defense, Arizona is already 0-3 ATS this season. The Wildcats now host a ranked Washington team that has dominated opposition early this season. Even with removing the win over an FCS opponent, Portland State, the Huskies have seen QB Browning compile a 74.5% completion rate and the Washington D has compiled 7 sacks! The Huskies first-team defense still has not allowed an offensive TD through the first three games of this season! The last time the Huskies visited Arizona they lost by just a single point but much has changed since then. Chris Peterson is now in his 3rd year as the head coach and this team has now been built with his recruits and is showing great progress already this season. Peterson has always been known for "taking care of business" on the road as he led Boise State to many dominating wins in his years there. Overall, Peterson-coached teams are on a 24-10 ATS run as road favorites. Arizona would like to avenge last year's 49 to 3 loss at Washington but that game is likely to prove to be a sign of things to come in this Pac 12 series. Arizona's defense has already been run ragged this season despite facing inferior competition and the Cats now face a Washington team whose offense and defense is firing on all cylinders so far this year. Arizona is on a 1-9 ATS run in home games when they enter the home game off of back to back straight-up wins. After wins over Grambling and Hawaii, the Wildcats are done in by facing a much tougher foe this time around. Washington is on an 11-3 ATS run when they enter a match-up off of a non-conference game where they scored more than 41 points. Off of the 41 to 3 win over Portland State, look for the Huskies to keep rolling as they are poised to open up their Pac 12 schedule in strong fashion. Back when the Wildcats had all the edges they didn't hesitate to roll up the scores in the games played at home in Arizona with wins by margins of 30 points or more in 2008, 2010, and 2012. That said, the Huskies won't hesitate to roll up big points in this one as they have been on the wrong end of many past beat-downs and it is time for a little payback. As you can see from the above, the Huskies have the ability to "impose their will" in this one which has us comfortably laying the big points in this late night West Coast match-up.
09-19-16	 Eagles v. Bears -3 Top 29-14 Loss	 -101 9 h 53 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET
We'll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night! Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. And let's not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years. We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can't show up and play well (they didn't) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble. Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road. The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14. That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week. Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved. Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2. He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season. It's now his 2nd season in Chicago. Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night. Lay it.
09-18-16	 Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43 Top 14-17 Win 100 32 h 43 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43, Green Bay @ Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
More often than not if we're zeroing in on a total in a division game, we lean UNDER. Long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. Entering this season, the overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. We rate BOTH of these defenses ahead of their offenses at this point and yes that includes Green Bay. Truth be told, the Packers offense was pretty average last year putting up just 23 PPG and we consider them a work in progress early in the season. Jordy Nelson returns but he'll take awhile to get back into top form. Last week the Packer offense didn't even reach 300 yards of total offense vs Jacksonville. Now they face a Minnesota defense that is very solid and the strength of the Viking team. Minnesota put up 25 points last week but 14 of those were from the defense. They only scored 1 offensive TD. They move to Bradford at QB this week but he's only been with the team for 2 weeks so don't expect any offensive explosions vs this solid Green Bay defense. We like the UNDER as the Packers & Vikings open the brand new US Bank stadium.
09-18-16	 49ers v. Panthers -13 Top 27-46 Win 100 94 h 53 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We're not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will. The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can't afford to lose this one. They've had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday. San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win. Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL. We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2. The result of that game? Steelers 43, Niners 18. The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense. It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG. Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert. They must run the ball well to be successful. They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn't play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well. That's the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they'll be ready here. If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little "come back" ability. This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it. Carolina in a blowout.
09-18-16	 Saints +4.5 v. Giants	 Top 13-16 Win 100 24 h 4 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We're surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here. We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren't fairly underwhelmed with their performance. They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win. On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage. Not very impressive. Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints. That's because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win. The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland. Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD's. We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week. This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53. Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense. Their "back door ability" if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well. The Giants haven't had a great home field advantage as they've won only 4 of their last 13 games here. We look for this one to go to the wire and we'll grab the generous points.
09-17-16	 Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 Top 38-45 Win 100 48 h 19 m Show
ASA Saturday CFB Rotation #174 - 10* TOP Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET: Oklahoma State certainly struggled last week hosting Central Michigan and, as a 20 point favorite, that certainly should not have happened. However, even with a game not played well, the Cowboys still should have won the game by a 27-24 count. Oklahoma State had the ball and was running the clock out when an intentional grounding penalty on fourth down resulted and the referees ended up making a mistake as they allowed the Chippewas to have down (ball was around midfield) even though the clock was at zero. By rule, the game truly should have already been over. However, the fact is that a mistake was made and, Central Michigan ended up with an unbelievable win when they completed a hail mary pass that was short of the end zone but then was lateraled for the game-winning touchdown. The Cowboys know they gave a poor effort last week but they also know they didn't deserve to lose the game. Coach Mike Gundy is in his 12th year with Oklahoma State and, as such, he is veteran presence for a team that also came into this season with plenty of returning talent. OSU returned 16 starters from last year and also returned a total of 38 players that were on the two-deep bowl roster. This type of experienced team is going to come out fighting hard this week after what happened last week. It is a mature group both physically and mentally and the Cowboys won 10 games last year and are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time too. The Panthers are off of an in-state rivalry win over Penn State and now are traveling to face a talented Big 12 team. Pitt hasn't had to travel to face a Big 12 school in over 10 years and this is truly a tough travel spot considering the Panthers have their ACC opener on deck. While it is true that Oklahoma State also has their conference opener on deck, the Cowboys scheduling spot is much easier as they are playing their 3rd straight home game to open up the season. The Cowboys have a bit of an "us against the world" attitude this week and they have resolved to put last week's loss behind them by coming out with an "A game" effort that should leave no doubt on the scoreboard. Even with last week's loss, Oklahoma State is on a 27-14 ATS run as a home favorite against FBS schools. The Panthers season opener this year was against an FCS school so Pittsburgh is getting their first truly tough test on the road this week. The Panthers relied heavily on their ground game to get past Penn State last week but Oklahoma State is allowing only 2.1 yards per carry so far this season. In terms of the aerial attacks of these two teams there truly is no comparison as the Cowboys were 7th in the nation last year with 353 passing yards per game while Pitt was 99th with only 190.6 yards per game through the air. The Panthers will want to control the trenches and get their ground game going but the Cowboys have been strong against the run as noted above and also are going to be extremely physical in this game at the line of scrimmage because this team is extremely fired up after taking the ultimate unthinkable loss last week. Pitt is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for home domination in Stillwater, OK Saturday afternoon.
09-15-16	 Jets v. Bills OVER 40 Top 37-31 Win 100 30 h 50 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points, NY Jets @ Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS
This total opened 42 and has been pushed down to 40. Now we feel the value is on the OVER and we'll grab it. Last year's two totals in this AFC East match up were 41.5 and 41. Both went under hitting 39 each time, however a lot of points were left on the field. The Jets lost both games 22-17 but had the ball deep in Buffalo territory in both games only to come up short. In the first game last year, the Jets actually threw 3 interception in their final 3 possessions. Buffalo struggled offensively last week @ Baltimore scoring just 7 points but they only ran 48 plays (Baltimore ran 66). We expect them to put more on the board this week as they have scored at least 20 in 9 straight games vs the Jets. New York looked solid offensively last week vs a very good Cincy defense putting up 22 points on 5.2 YPP. Weather looks perfect and we like both to get to 20 here pushing this OVER the total.
09-15-16	 Jets -1 v. Bills	 Top 37-31 Win 100 30 h 49 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS
Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each. With that being said, if both bring their "A" games, the Jets are simply the better team. The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense. Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play. They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game. Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week. Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense. The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win. The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives. The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score. A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games). In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo). Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win. In BOTH games. Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S!
09-12-16	 Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 Top 0-28 Win 100 102 h 42 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5, LA Rams @ San Francisco, Monday at 10:20 PM ET
We like UNDER in the LA Rams versus the SF 49ers on Monday night. Last year in the two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals they combined to score 33 and 35 points with the later coming in OT. Vegas had Totals on those two contests of 41 and 39 respectively and now have a much higher number here in the season opener. The Niners had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL last year at just 14.9PPG while the Rams ranked slightly better at 17.5PPG which was 4th worst. Neither team has 'big play' capability in the passing game as they lack playmakers at the wideouts and neither team has a starting QB to get them the ball. No two teams in the NFL have worst QB situations than these two clubs as the Rams are forced to start Case Keenum (47.7QBR) while the 49ers counter with Blaine Gabbert (42.2QBR) or the other guy who I won't even mention. Los Angeles (St Louis) had the worst passing game in the NFL last year at just 175YPG while the 49ers were 29th at 203.4YPG. L.A. will rely heavily on running back Todd Gurley and their defense to win games this season. Niners head coach Chip Kelly didn't produce in Philly with his vaunted college offense and it won't translate here in San Francisco, especially early on. Both defenses were better 'efficiency' wise compared to their Net Yards allowed seasonal stats last year and we expect both D-units to dominate on Monday night. 12 of the Rams 16 games last season ended with less points than tonight's Total. If you take out overtime, the 49ers and their opponents scored less than the Total on this game in 11 of their 16 games last year. The Rams are on 6-1 'under' run dating back to last year and the offense is worse than it was a season ago. The Under has cashed in 18 of the 49ers last twenty three home games. Points will be hard to come by in this one....bet UNDER!
09-12-16	 Steelers -3 v. Redskins	 Top 38-16 Win 100 99 h 37 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET
The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category. The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record. Somebody had to win it, right? That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season. There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential. They didn't beat a winning team all last season. While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren't good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out. The Steelers are the MUCH better team here. They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG. Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown. While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there. While Washington really didn't deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards. Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season. Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year. We'll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh.
09-11-16	 Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals	 Top 23-21 Win 100 76 h 58 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high. Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here. Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span. They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games. If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins. You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one. Brady's replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn't make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright. He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year. Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half. QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn't look good. The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston. Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season. Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high. The Pats will keep this close
09-11-16	 Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 Top 27-33 Loss	 -105 68 h 26 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5, San Diego @ Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
It's always smart to at least take a look at the UNDER in a divisional game in the NFL. You don't always have to use the situation, however long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. The overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. This AFC West rivalry has been a strong play to the UNDER. The last 23 meeting have resulted in 15 UNDERS & 8 OVERS. The last 4 meetings have all gone UNDER with an average point total of just 30. Only 5 of the last 23 games between these two have gotten to 50 pts or higher. On top of that, KC has gone UNDER in 35 of their last 56 home games and vs the AFC West the Chiefs are 40-23 to the UNDER their last 63. We also expect a slower paced game as the Chiefs were 31st in the NFL in offensive pace last year and San Diego was middle of the pack. This number is currently in the mid-40's and too high. Take the UNDER.
09-10-16	 California v. San Diego State -7 Top 40-45 Loss	 -110 54 h 0 m Show
ASA Saturday CFB Game #392 - 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET: After opening up at an 8 this line was down to a 7 by Thursday afternoon. The situation here is truly ideal for a San Diego State blowout and that is what makes the drop to a 7 add even more value in this spot. The fact is that the betting markets have had trouble with the Aztecs in the past and we feel this line is also well off the mark. San Diego State was "only" 7-6 ATS last season but 5 of those ATS wins beat the spread by at least 20 points. This looks like another spot where the Aztecs are very undervalued. Adding even more to this selection is the fact that California is still an over-valued team. They are off of a bye week because they were a week ahead of most everyone else with their late August game against Hawaii "down under" in Australia. That game is helping to give us value here because the Golden Bears did win that game by a big margin but it hides the fact that Cal defense did give up nearly 500 yards in that game. That was against the same Hawaii team that then went to Michigan and got rolled 63 to 6. The point is that the Cal early season win masked some major concerns with this team. The Golden Bears (with star QB Jared Goff now in the NFL with the Rams) are a team that is likely to struggle against a top rate defense like San Diego State has. With Rocky Long at the helm, the Aztecs are extremely well coached. San Diego State allowed only 287.3 yards per game last season which ranked them 5th in the nation. Many look at this game as a scheduling edge for Cal since they are coming off of a bye week. However, traveling to Australia to play inferior competition and then immediately having a two week break while trying to stay game ready isn't exactly an ideal situation. The Aztecs are truly in the ideal situation here as they have been home the entire time, hosted an outclassed New Hampshire team last week (31-0 win) so they were able to "work the rust off" after the off-season, and now they get a shot at revenge. Last year the Aztecs and coach Long were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2 of their season when they lost 35 to 7 at Cal. Now San Diego State gets an opportunity for revenge at home and the Aztecs loss to Cal last year was their worst loss since all the way back in September of 2013 when they lost big at Ohio State. There is no doubt that coach Long will have his troops ready for this one and we expect running back Donnel Pumphrey to run wild in this one as he faces a Cal defense that was ripped for 248 yards (6.5 yards per carry) by the Rainbow Warriors. Cal ranked 109th on defense last year allowing 453.7 yards per game and that weakness is still here plus the offense only returned 3 starters from last season. Look for the home team to make it 8 in a row in this series on the West Coast. We'll lay the points with San Diego State in late night action Saturday.
09-08-16	 Panthers v. Broncos +3 Top 20-21 Win 106 50 h 16 m Show
PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years. In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team!
09-04-16	 Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 Top 47-50 Win 100 8 h 8 m Show
Tonight we play on Texas plus the points over Notre Dame. Last year when these same two teams met the Irish were 8.5-point chalks at home and they destroyed the Longhorns 38-3 in racking up 527 total yards of offense while allowing just 163. That was last year in South Bend and the circumstances are much different this year with the game in Texas AND with the Longhorns returning 79% of their offense and defense from last year's squad. Texas is loaded with talent and are expected to be much better this season in coach Charlie Strong's third season. Our predictors expect them to be at least 3-points per game better offensively and the same defensively. This is the best O line in the Charlie Strong era, and it should be able to wear down a smallish (and lacking depth) d-front of the Irish as the game goes on. Strong realized he need to improve his offense so he brought in assistant coach Sterlin Gilbert and he's been tasked with installing the same offense that has powered Baylor to two Big 12 titles in three years. You can expect success on the ground here with the power run game as tailbacks D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren run behind a solid O-line which should put the Longhorns in plenty of 3rd and short and take pressure off freshman QB Buechele. Yes, Notre Dame has talent offensively, especially at QB with Zaire and Kizer, along with RB's Folston and Adams, but they lack playmakers at the wideout positions and there is some chemistry issues with the rotating QB's. Texas is at home playing with revenge in their season opener and getting value here as they should be a slight favorite according to our early season power ratings. Grab the points with Texas.
09-03-16	 Clemson -7 v. Auburn	 Top 19-13 Loss	 -115 54 h 19 m Show
ASA Saturday CFB Game #183 - 10* TOP Clemson Tigers -7 @ Auburn Tigers @ 9 ET: Clemson was perfect last season until coming up just short against Alabama in the Championship Game. Although they lost 7 starters from last year's defense, this was similar to the situation going into the prior season as well - Clemson last 8 starters on defense heading into 2015. Of course 2015 was still a huge success and similar results should be expected in 2016. The defensive system continues to thrive at Clemson and the offense returns 8 starters including star QB Deshaun Watson. Under coach Dabo Swinney Clemson has gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 meetings with Auburn. Though Auburn is an SEC team they only went 2-6 both SU and ATS in conference action last season. Auburn will be trying to stop a Clemson offense that ranked among the top teams in the nation last year and Watson is such a huge threat both through the air and on the ground. The Auburn defense overall was ranked 13th in the SEC and now has its 3rd defensive coordinator in the last three years. Additionally, there is concern at the linebacker position as Auburn plays a 4-3 defense and lost all 3 of their starting linebackers from last season's team. We just don't see the Auburn defense (ranked 71st in the nation for yardage allowed) as being able to slow down Clemson much at all. The dynamic offensive attack of Clemson will prove to be too much here and Auburn doesn't have the offense to keep up. Auburn only has 6 returning starters on offense and the team was ranked 94th in the nation in yards per game on that side of the ball. We expect an early season road rout here and we're laying the points with Clemson Saturday night.
02-07-16	 Panthers v. Broncos +6 Top 10-24 Win 100 118 h 52 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +6 over Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET
We have to take the line value with Denver here. Now that this team has pushed up to –5.5 or -6 in favor of the Panthers, we'll jump on the Broncos. To put this line in perspective, we'll adjust the line as if Carolina was the home team. With the line where it is set now, that would mean Carolina would be -10 at home vs Denver which is off. When comparing this to their most recent 5 home games, you'll see what we mean. In those home games the Panthers were favored by 3 vs Arizona, 2.5 vs Seattle, 8.5 vs Atlanta, 10 vs Tampa, and 7 vs Washington. That puts this current line in perspective and tells us where the value is. Denver has been an underdog 5 times this year covering all 5 and winning 4 of those games outright over New England (twice), KC, and Green Bay. As we all know they have the #1 defense in the NFL and completely shut down the Patriots and Tom Brady last week. That's not easy to do. Teams with the better overall defense have won 40 of the 49 Super Bowls and that sits squarely in Denver's corner here. With 2 weeks to prepare we're positive the Denver defense will have a great game plan to slow down Carolina. The Panthers have obviously been very good in their first 2 playoff games both at home. Now that they have to leave the confines of their home stadium and travel west. They played a very weak slate away from home this year beating only one team that finished the season with a winning record. Peyton Manning is obviously on his last leg for Denver but he's played OK since he came back into the lineup. He has gone 3 straight games without turning the ball over which is key here vs a Carolina team that is +20 in turnover margin (+6 turnovers more than the 2nd best margin). Manning has been in this spot numerous times and has the savvy to manage this game and get a win. He knows his role now. Denver will play great defense and make this a "slow" paced, field position type game. Carolina is definitely the "public" side here as their offense has been red hot. The problem is that has made the Panthers an overvalued side here as we mentioned earlier. That doesn't bode well as teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs (Carolina did last week) are just 5-23 ATS their next game! The dog is also 6-1 ATS the last 8 Super Bowls – last year was a pick-em game so it's not included. We think Denver's defense keeps this close and getting nearly a TD is the way to go.
02-07-16	 Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 45 Top 10-24 Win 100 118 h 51 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45 - Denver vs Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET
We have the two most efficient defense in the NFL here with Denver ranking #1 in that category and Carolina #2. The Panthers offense has been hot but Denver just held Pittsburgh & New England (two top notch offenses) to just 3 TD's combined. Carolina played a number of weak defenses throughout the year so we feel their overall numbers are bit skewed. In fact, of their 16 regular season games, the Panthers only faced 2 teams that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in total defense. The Bronco defense has allowed more than 20 points only 6 times this entire season and that includes their playoff games (18 games). The Denver offense will be playing into one of the top defenses in the NFL as well. The Broncs have turned into a "conservative" offense that runs the ball quite a bit. They need this game to be lower scoring to have a chance and we think they'll get a slower pace here. Denver plays the field position game, Manning doesn't make any mistakes, and this turns into a low scoring slugfest. We like the UNDER in this game.
01-24-16	 Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 Top 15-49 Loss	 -110 50 h 28 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points - Arizona @ Carolina, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET
We are going to play UNDER in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers NFC Championship game. We will put ourselves on the opposite bet of the general public in this game and play 'under' the total. At first glance many bettors will look and say these two teams have the best offenses in the NFL, they'll score 30+ each but we really don't feel that will be the case. Let's first look at last weeks misleading results concerning both teams final scores. Green Bay and Arizona combined for 46 points but 6 of those came in OT, 7 came on a hail Mary at the end of regulation and 10 of Arizona's points came in the final 3:44 of the game. In last week's Seahawks versus Panthers game the Panthers scored just a couple minutes in, then immediately returned an INT for a TD for a quick 14-point lead. Carolina also benefitted from a short field after an INT for their third score. Then Seattle put up 10 points in the final 6 minutes of the game for 55 total points. A lot is being made of these two team's offenses but the defenses for both have been equally as good. Carolina allows just 5.0 yards per play overall (3rd) and 4.0 yards per rush (8th). Arizona gives up just 5.3YPPL (9th) and 4.0YPR (8th). When it comes to defensive efficiency ratings the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL while the Cards are 7th. The Cardinals have stayed 'under' the total in 6 of their last seven games overall (3 games versus top 15 scoring offenses) but the Panthers have gone over in 8 of their last 11. Carolina's recent 'over' run is misleading though as only one of those teams (Seattle) rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency ratings. Last year when these same two teams met in the Playoffs they combined for 43 total points and we see similar results here.
01-24-16	 Patriots -3 v. Broncos	 Top 18-20 Loss	 -103 48 h 55 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET
These two met right here in Denver in late November with New England as a slight 2.5 point favorite. The Pats led the game 21-7 with under 13:00 minutes remaining but the Broncs put on a furious rally and won 30-24 in OT. Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB in that one and they relied heavily on the ground game with 29 combined carries for Anderson and Hillman for 172 yards. You can bet New England and Bill Belichick will shore up their run defense here and force a less than stellar Peyton Manning to beat them. We don't think he can do it as his skills and arm strength have diminished considerably. In fact, in last Sunday's 23-16 win over an injury riddled Pittsburgh team, Manning's QB Rating was just 35.9 which was his 2nd worst rating in any of his playoff games over the last decade. The Broncos struggled to beat a Pittsburgh team with a QB that couldn't throw down field due to an injured shoulder (Roethlisberger) and a team without their top WR or RB. Even with that, Denver was trailing with 3:00 minutes remaining when they scored their go ahead TD. Despite the shoulder injury, Roethlisberger was able to put up 339 yards through the air and a 53.2 QB Rating. Needless to say, we expect Brady to have a big day on Sunday. Pittsburgh dominated the all telling yards per play stats averaging 6.7 per snap compared to just 4.6 for Denver. The Broncs had only TWO drives the entire game of 40 or more yards against an "OK" but not great Pittsburgh defense. We feel the Broncos were a bit lucky to come out of last week with a win despite facing a beat up team playing their 4th consecutive week on the road. New England led 21-6 in the 3rd and held on to top a red hot KC team 27-20. That was despite New England running 27 FEWER offensive plays! The Pats, unlike Denver, dominated the yards per play stat with 6.1 yards per snap compared to 4.6 for KC. New England has the coaching edge and a huge advantage at the most important position on the field, QB. We don't think Denver can do enough offensively to win this game. Take the PATRIOTS.
01-24-16	 Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 Top 18-20 Win 100 48 h 53 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points - New England @ Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET
To say the Broncos offense is struggling would be putting it lightly. This team simply is not good offensively. Last week vs an average Pittsburgh defense the Denver offense had only TWO drives of 40 or more yards. That's it and one was basically their final game winning drive. They scored 23 points but in reality they should have gotten nowhere near that number. They actually scored 10 of their 23 points in the final 3:00 minutes of the game. In fact, the two teams combined for 25 points in the first 57 minutes of the game and 14 in the last 3 minutes. Obviously Peyton Manning doesn't have it anymore. He can't get the ball downfield taking big plays almost entirely out of the equation. His QB Rating last week of 35.9 was his 2nd lowest in his NFL playoff career. The Pats offense has tailed off the last 3 games scoring 20, 10, & 27 points. In 2 of those 3 games they failed to reach 300 total yards. They will be facing the #1 defense in the entire NFL so we don't look for those recent numbers to improve on Sunday. These two met earlier this year and Denver won the game 30-24 in OT. That was a deceivingly high score as it was just 14-7 entering the 4th quarter. With the total sitting where it is right now, the oddsmakers see a final score of New England 24, Denver 21. We'd be shocked if Denver was able to get to 20 points in this game and we don't expect New England's offense to go off. Take the UNDER here.
01-17-16	 Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 43.5 Top 24-31 Win 100 114 h 36 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points - Seattle @ Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We feel these two should easily eclipse this total. Seattle has scored at least 29 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The failed to do so last week in Minnesota but we can throw that out the window as the conditions were brutally cold and windy. We actually think that 10-9 outcome actually kept this total from pushing higher. Carolina's offense is vastly under rated as they've now put up 27 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games! That includes topping 30 points 9 times during that stretch. Many may not even realize that the Panthers are the highest scoring team in the league at 31 PPG. Seattle ranks 9th at 26 PPG but their offense is playing much better than that right now. They were held to 20 points or less in 4 of their first 8 games which means their overall numbers aren't up to par with how they are actually playing offensively right now. These two met earlier this season in Seattle and totaled 50 points and 720 yards of total offense. They also met in the playoffs last year and totaled 48 points and put up over 700 yards of offense. We see both these teams easily getting to the mid 20's or higher and pushing this OVER this total.
01-17-16	 Seahawks v. Panthers -1 Top 24-31 Win 100 66 h 7 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -1 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
They had plenty of doubters, but the fact is Carolina was the best team in the NFL pretty much all season long. Getting them at home and rested at this number is a gift. Let's not forget that the Panthers already faced off against Seattle this year and that was on the road in what many consider to be the toughest venue in the NFL. Carolina won that game 27-23 outgaining the Hawks 383 to 334. Seattle's used up their "rabbit's foot" last week when they won at Minnesota 10-9 as the Vikes missed a chip shot field goal to win. Minny dominated the first 3 quarters leading 9-0 heading into the 4th and Seattle had just 162 total yards at that point. While Carolina is rested and ready, Seattle is traveling for the 3rd straight week as they closed out the regular season @ Arizona. Hard to believe a team that went 15-1 is undervalued but that is the case here. The Panthers were 8-0 at winning by an average margin of 16 PPG and they are currently laying under a FG here. Seattle's "luck" runs out on Sunday.
01-16-16	 Packers v. Cardinals -7 Top 20-26 Loss	 -100 99 h 38 m Show
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast Dec 20th in Oakland then came home, went to Arizona the following week, then home to face Minnesota. And last week they went to the East coast to face Washington and now travel back to Arizona on short week having to play on Saturday. Green Bay beat Washington handily last week but we're not buying them. The Skins were over-rated and won a bad NFC East division yet they still managed to outgain the Packers despite getting beat 18-35. The Packers offense has been OK, but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona averages nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. In the recent meeting the Cards absolutely destroyed the Packers 38-8. When you factor in sacks (Arizona had 9 for minus 78 yards) the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had 77 net yards passing! Arizona racked up over 380 yards of total offense and outgained the Pack by 200 yards. After jumping up 17-0 the Cards were able to play conservative too and save 60-70% of their playbook for this rematch. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career there is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 4-14 SU their last 18 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they won by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big.
01-16-16	 Chiefs +5 v. Patriots	 Top 20-27 Loss	 -108 93 h 5 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City +5 over New England, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET
New England was headed in the wrong direction at the end of the season. They had two very meaningful games to close out the year and they couldn't win either. The Pats simply needed to win one of their final two games and they would have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. On Dec 27th the Pats lost to the Jets 26-20 and were outgained by 144 yards. Even more disturbing they then lost to Miami 20-10 and outgained by a whopping 242 yards in a game they needed to win. That was against a Miami team that had lost 5 of their previous 6 games with their only win (before New England) coming by 2-points vs a decimated Baltimore team. The big problem for them offensively is they can't run the ball. Since losing RB Blount 3 games ago, they've tried to piece together a backfield by signing a slow and aging Steven Jackson to go with their current roster of James White & Brandon Bolden. In their final 3 games New England rushed for a total of 226 yards on 75 carries or just 3 YPC. Don't expect that to change against a KC defense allowing just 99 YPG on the season. That will allow a very good KC pass rush (3 sacks per game) to tee off on an immobile and banged up (ankle) Tom Brady. Not only that, the Chief defense leads the NFL in opposing QB pass completion percentage allowing just 56%. The KC offense will be conservative and try and limit mistakes (turnovers). They will do enough to stay in this game the whole way. They have all the confidence in the world that they can win this game entering on an 11 game winning streak. Tom Brady is just 11-15 ATS in the playoffs as the Pats usually come in a bit over valued. That is the case here and we wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs win this game outright. We'll take the points as for a nice cushion.
01-10-16	 Packers v. Redskins OVER 44.5 Top 35-18 Win 100 49 h 17 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 44.5 Points - Green Bay @ Washington, Sunday at 3:40 PM ET
Much has been made of the Packers offensive struggles down the stretch and we think that all changes here. Green Bay has scored just 8 & 13 points in their final two games but those came against Arizona & Minnesota, two of the top 8 scoring defenses in the NFL. Coming into those final 2 games, the Pack had scored 27 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. We look for them to get back to that production against a below average Washington defense. Look for Aaron Rodgers and company to be much more comfortable throwing the ball against one of the worst pass defenses NFL allowing 258 YPG passing (25th in the NFL) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (25th in the NFL). Look for Mike McCarthy to lean heavily on his best player (Rodgers) to win this game. The Packer offense will look much, much better this week. On the other side of the ball, the Washington offense played lights out down the stretch scoring at least 30 points in each of their final 3 games. QB Kirk Cousins had a great season finishing 5th in the NFL in QB Rating behind only Wilson, Dalton, Palmer, and Brady. In those final 3 games Cousins threw 11 TD's and no interceptions. The Skins have averaged 26 PPG at home and we see no reason they don't hit that number or at least close. Add that to what we expect to be a much improved Green Bay offense vs a poor defense and this one gets OVER the total
01-09-16	 Steelers v. Bengals +3 Top 18-16 Win 100 29 h 3 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +3 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET
These two teams met a few weeks ago with the Steelers prevailing 33-20 in Cincinnati. The Bengals actually outgained the Steelers in that game but lost their starting QB Andy Dalton on the opening drive of the game. Backup AJ McCarron played OK in relief and is a serviceable 2nd string NFL QB. The Bengals are arguably the most talented team in the playoffs and have an edge defensively here. Cincinnati is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4PPG, 1st in opponents points per play (.270), 10th in yards per play allowed and 2nd in opponents TD's allowed per game (1.8). The Bengals 'weakness' on defense is stopping the run, but as of this writing the Steelers will have a hard time exploiting that as RB DeAngelo Williams is in a walking boot (listed as doubtful). Williams had 76 yards and 2 TD's versus the Bengals in the most recent meeting. The Bengals should exploit a Steelers secondary that is 30th in the NFL in passing yard allowed per game, giving up more than 270YPG. Early in the season when these two teams met in Pittsburgh the line was a pick'em. Then most recently in Cincy the Bengals were minus 1-point and now they are getting a full field goal at home. Home teams in the Wildcard rounds are on a 65-35 SU run and we feel the Bengals get a home win here.
01-09-16	 Chiefs v. Texans OVER 40 Top 30-0 Loss	 -105 25 h 25 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points - Kansas City @ Houston, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET
These two defenses played very well down the stretch but we feel their numbers during that run are a bit skewed due to the competition. The Chiefs held their final 4 opponents to 17 or fewer points but those games came against San Diego, Baltimore (without Flacco), Cleveland, and Oakland. Three of those four finished the season ranked 25th or lower in scoring and the only outlier, Oakland, finished 17th. In fact, the only offense that KC played down the stretch (final 9 games) that ranked higher than Oakland in scoring (17th) was Buffalo at 12th. Thus, the Chief defense didn't face a single top 10 scoring offense in their final 9 games. The Houston defense has a bit more to "brag" about as they at least faced a few good offenses down the stretch including New England, New Orleans, and Buffalo. However 2 of those 3 (Pats & Bills) scored 27 or more in those games. The Texans final 3 games they faced Indy, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, all below average offenses. Now they face a KC offense that averages 25 PPG ranking them in the top 10. The Chiefs are also ranked as the 6th most efficient offense in the NFL. Houston's offensive numbers are a bit deceiving in our opinion. When Hoyer has been the starting QB, the Texans throw the ball much more and look much better offensively. Hoyer came back last week after nearly a month off and helped the Texans put up 30 points vs Jacksonville. He has averaged just under 35 pass attempts per game and with Hoyer under center Houston has scored at least 20 points in 9 of those 11 games. With this total set so low, 20 points out of Houston will probably be more than enough to push this over. When these two met earlier in the season they scored 47 and we look for similar numbers here. Let's also throw in the fact that we'll have perfect weather conditions playing in Houston. We expect both teams to get into the 20's which pushes this one OVER the number.
01-09-16	 Chiefs v. Texans +3 Top 30-0 Loss	 -100 25 h 24 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Kansas City, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET
The Chiefs come in on a well-publicized 10 game winning streak. However, they have been far from dominant during this run outgaining those 10 opponents by an average of just 11 YPG. Turnovers have been the key as they are +16 during that 10 game run and that can't be counted on to continue game after game. Especially vs the Texans who've protected the ball very well with just 10 turnovers total in their last 11 games. Let's also not forget that while that 10 game run is impressive, they beat only 2 teams during that stretch that ended the year with above .500 records and there needs to be an "asterisk" placed by both of those games. They topped Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger out and beat Denver in the game that Peyton Manning went out and was replaced by Osweiler and didn't come back until last week. These two met here in the season opener and KC was a 1-point favorite. The Chiefs won 27-20 but were outgained by almost 70 yards but +2 in turnovers. Down the stretch run KC was favored by 3 @ Oakland and by 3 @ SD, two non-playoff teams. Now they are laying the same or even a bit more in some places which gives us value on the host. Since 2003 NFL playoff dogs are 71-58 ATS and that trend continues in this game.
01-03-16	 Vikings v. Packers UNDER 43.5 Top 20-13 Win 100 8 h 1 m Show
Under – Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers - 8:30 PM ET - This is a winner take all battle for the NFC North crown and we expect a defensive battle. Green Bay is still viewed as one of the better offenses in the league but the fact is they are not. They are a middle of the pack team in scoring (23 PPG) and they are averaging only 333 YPG which ranks them 24th in the NFL. They don't have any downfield threats on the outside and Aaron Rodgers has had the play the dink and dunk game for much of the year. Their offensive line is banged up and we look for the Packers to struggle offensively again tonight. They allowed 38 points last week to the top scoring team in the league (Arizona). However the Cards scored 2 defensive TD's in the game which really skewed their final point tally. In their 6 games leading up to last week's match up in Arizona, the Packer defense had allowed 18, 13, 17, 23, 7, and 20 points. Minnesota comes in with one of the top defenses in the NFL (#6 in scoring allowing 19 PPG) and a so-so at best offense (scoring 23 PPG). The Vikes have looked very good offensively the last two weeks putting up a lot of points but those games were against Chicago & the NY Giants, two teams out of the playoff race with suspect defenses. They love to turn the ball (30 attempts per game) which eats up clock. The Vikes passing game is below average (31st in pass attempts per game) and lacks big play ability just as the Packers do. GB win the first match up 30-13 but the Pack had only 320 yards of total offense so they were lucky to put up 30. Even with that, that score still stays under this number. These two have been under teams all season long going a combined 9-20-1 to the UNDER. The windchill in GB tonight will be in the low teen's and we look for a defensive battle. Take the UNDER.
01-03-16	 Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42 Top 20-27 Loss	 -101 4 h 48 m Show
UNDER San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos - 4:25PM ET - We will play UNDER in the San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos game. The Broncos need a win here and control their own destiny. San Diego is looking forward to the off season. The Broncos gameplan is obvious here as they'll let their defense dictate the tempo, play conservative offensively and win a game without making mistakes. The Denver defense is the best in the league: 4th in PPG allowed at 18.4, 1st in opponents yards allowed 280.9, 3rd opponents points per play .286, 1st in opponents yards per play etc...etc...etc...In the first meeting of the season the Broncos held the Chargers to less than 280 total yards of offense and just 3 points. The Chargers offense is one dimensional and predictable as their offensive line has been decimated by injuries, they have no running game and injuries at the wideout position. San Diego has scored just 3 in three of their last 6 games. They did top 20 points in three of their last six games but that came against three defenses that rank 21st or worst in the NFL...NOT 1ST! Denver runs the football on average 25 times per game but in the first meeting against the Chargers they ran it 39 times. San Diego allows 4.7 yards per rush which is 30th in the league and Denver will look to exploit that weakness again on Sunday. More running plays means less clock stoppage and a lower scoring game. Denver has topped 27 points just 4 times this year and one of those games was an OT affair. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings including a 22-10 (32 points) game last year in Denver. The bet here is obvious...UNDER!
01-02-16	 West Virginia v. Arizona State OVER 62 Top 43-42 Win 100 11 h 12 m Show
PLAY OVER
A pair of high powered offenses face off when West Virginia and Arizona State meet in the Cactus Bowl this evening and we expect a ton of points. Both teams rank in the top 28 nationally in total offense (ASU averages 468YPG for 24th - WVU 461YPG for 28th) and in the top 50 in scoring (ASU 34PPG, WVU 33PPG), and both are dynamic in the running and passing game. Both teams are in the top half of college football in yards per point and yards per play. These two teams have scored 40+ points in four of their 12 games this season and 30+ seven times. Defensively nether team is very good as ASU gives up an average of 456 yards per game which is 101st (out of 128) while West Virginia was slightly better allowing 387YPG (51st). But West Virginia has skewed stats as they faced a few horrible offenses this season in Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Maryland and Texas. A better indicator of WVU's defense is when they played two teams that are similar to Arizona State in Baylor and TCU when they allowed over 600 total yards of offense in each of those games and 100 total points. Both teams are loaded with a ton of 'skill' talent and will put up a ton of points in this one. The bet here is OVER!
01-02-16	 Penn State +6 v. Georgia	 Top 17-24 Loss	 -105 46 h 36 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State +6 over Georgia, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - ASA's 2016 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
The UGA team has to be in disarray for this bowl game. They lost their head coach Mark Richt to Miami and he's already taken a number of assistants, including both the offensive AND defensive coordinator, and they will not be coaching in this game. Many of the coaches that are prepping the Dogs for this game don't have jobs moving forward so we can imagine that's been quite a distraction as well. Kirby Smart (former Bama assistant) will take over after this game and he hasn't retained any of the current UGA assistants as of yet. On top of all of that, the fact is that UGA simply wasn't all that great this year. They were outscored by an average of 9 PPG and outgained by nearly 70 YPG vs the other bowl teams they faced this season. Their offense has struggled much of the season and especially down the stretch as they scored 20 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. They are very one-dimensional with little passing game (178 YPG ranking 106th nationally). Their QB Greyson Lambert has been average at best all season and actually was unable to win the job @ Virginia which is why he transferred over the summer. That will be a problem against a very aggressive PSU defense that ranks 16th nationally in defensive efficiency. PSU's offense hasn't been great but they do have an NFL caliber QB in Hackenberg. PSU, unlike Georgia, is thrilled to be playing a top notch opponent and they are extra motivated after a poor performance @ Michigan State to end the season. Their coaching staff is much more stable at this point which is very important heading into bowl season. Getting nearly a full TD is a great spot here as we feel PSU has a great shot to win this game outright.
01-01-16	 Notre Dame +7 v. Ohio State	 Top 28-44 Loss	 -130 38 h 15 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +7 over Ohio State, Friday at 1:00 PM ET
We think the Irish come with much more enthusiasm and "want to" in this game. The Buckeyes had one goal after winning the National Championship a year ago and that was to repeat this season. They failed to do so and not getting to the "Final 4" is a huge disappointment. While the making it to the Fiesta Bowl would be a huge accomplishment for most teams, we expect OSU to be flat here. They have a number of players with one foot out the door to the NFL and not getting a chance to accomplish their season long goal will have them disinterested. Their opponent is no slouch. In fact, we think these two teams compare very favorably and for OSU to be nearly a TD favorite is off in our opinion. Notre Dame comes in with just 2 losses and they really could have and should have won both of those games. If so, we're talking about an undefeated Irish team and a potential National Championship. Their losses were by 2-points @ Clemson and by 2-points @ Stanford. The Irish outgained Clemson by nearly 150 yards but 4 turnovers did them in and gave the Tigers a tight win. The golden domers also outgained Stanford on the road by 111 yards but a 50+ yard field goal as time ran out giving the Cardinal a tight win. They are tough to defend averaging more than 200 YPG both rushing and passing. They stepped up vs top competition going 5-1 ATS vs bowl teams and +72 YPG in those games. The Bucks underachieved all season coming off last year's fantastic late season run and we see no reason Notre Dame doesn't hang in this one all the way and have a shot to win outright.
01-01-16	 Notre Dame v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 Top 28-44 Win 100 24 h 26 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 56.5 Points - Notre Dame vs Ohio State - Friday at 1:00 PM ET
Both teams are very potent on offense and we expect points to be scored in this one. Both teams average 35 PPG and both rank in the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders). ND averages 7 YPP and OSU puts up 6.3 YPP. We also like the fact that the Buckeyes started to go more uptempo late in the season giving them more offensive plays to work with. OSU scored 28 or more points in 8 of their last 9 games. The only time they didn't reach that number was at home vs Michigan State in a driving rain storm and very windy conditions. Notre Dame hit at least 28 in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Irish averaged 34 PPG this season vs other bowl teams while OSU averaged 32. Notre Dame's defense allowed 28 PPG vs bowl teams and while OSU's defensive numbers looked very good vs bowl teams (allowed 16 PPG) they didn't play many top notch offenses. Notre Dame will be the best offense Ohio State has faced all season. We look for both of these teams to top 30 points and send this one easily OVER the number.
01-01-16	 Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern	 Top 45-6 Win 100 41 h 3 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -8 over Northwestern, Friday at 12:00 Noon ET
We feel this Vol team is much better than their 8-4 record. All 4 of their losses were to bowl teams and all were down to the wire, one score games. Two of those losses came to "Final 4" teams Oklahoma & Alabama. The Vols played Bama closer than anyone this season (sans Bama's loss to Ole Miss) and actually led on the road with under 3:00 minutes remaining. Bama won the game with a late score 19-14. UT also led Oklahoma 17-0 before losing by a TD in overtime. Pretty impressive losses to say the least. Their other two setbacks were to Arkansas by 4 and to Florida by 1. This team was very close to having a great, great season. This is a young team that will absolutely show up at their best here gaining momentum for the 2016 season. Don't forget that UT has not been to a New Year's Day bowl game since 2007 so this is a big deal for them. Northwestern is an unimpressive 10-2 in our opinion. They did knock off Stanford in the 1st game of the year but the Cardinal were a much better team later in the season and we have no doubt if they faced off again NW would lose big. In their two "step up" games this year vs Michigan & Iowa, this Wildcat team lost by a combined score of 78-10. Their other decent win was 13-7 vs Wisconsin, a game the Badgers had won but a crazy call to overturn a UW TD late was the decider. The Cats are simply too one-dimensional offensively to win a game against a very good team like this. They can't pass the ball and rely almost exclusively on the run. NW ranks 120th in passing YPG (138) and 117th in completion percentage (49%). Tennessee is much more diverse rushing for 224 YPG and passing for 200. They also have a mobile QB that NW's defense did not see much of this year. Tommy Armstrong @ Nebraska was probably the only similar QB they faced in the Big Ten but he isn't nearly as good as UT's Dobbs. Tennessee played a Big Ten team (Iowa) in last year's Tax Slayer Bowl and rolled up a big 17 point win. We look for a similar outcome this year vs Northwestern.
12-31-15	 Michigan State v. Alabama -10 Top 0-38 Win 100 26 h 22 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Alabama -10 over Michigan State, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's 2015 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
We felt that MSU was a bit over rated all season long. Their stats simply don't match up with their overall record. This is a team that averaged 5.7 YPP offensively and allowed 5.5 YPP defensively. That simply doesn't add up to a team that should be in College Football's "Final 4". Their two biggest regular season wins were over Michigan & Ohio State. Keep in mind that Sparty had some serious luck on their sides in those games as they NEVER LED in either game until the final play of the game (blocked punt for TD vs Michigan & FG at buzzer vs Ohio State). Their other big win was a 16-13 triumph over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game. They had a number of tight wins vs bad competition as well beating Purdue by 3, Rutgers by 7, Air Force by 14 (game was closer than that) and a loss @ Nebraska. Just nothing overly impressive from MSU this year in our opinion. Bama on the other hand, played a whopping 11 bowl teams and lost just once to Ole Miss and the Tide had 5 turnovers in that game. So they were 10-1 vs bowl teams with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. They outgained those 11 opponents by an average of 150 YPG. Bama has some extra incentive here as well after losing in last year's semi-final to another Big Ten team, Ohio State. Don't think Saban hasn't used that as motivation leading into this game. Alabama is the much better team in our mind and they roll in this one.
12-31-15	 Michigan State v. Alabama OVER 45.5 Top 0-38 Loss	 -110 26 h 57 m Show
We like OVER the total in the Michigan State vs Alabama game. A lot has been made of Bama's defense and rightly so, but their offense deserves more credit than they get. The Tide weren't one dimensional offensively with Heisman winner RB Henry as they also threw the football for over 200YPG. Yes, it's nice to have a stud running back like Henry and Bama won't stray too far from their rushing attack which is 25th in the nation averaging nearly 210YPG. The Tide offense averages over 424YPG offensively and average 32.2PPG. Tennessee held this Alabama team to 19 points but no other team was able to hold them to less than 27 points and they scored 30+ in 9 games this season. Michigan States defense is good again this season but it's not on the same level as the past few editions. The Spartans gave up 20 or more points in 8 games this season. Offensively we expect Michigan State to have problems running the football against this Bama defensive front which is the best in college football by far but we do expect them to have some success throwing the football. Spartans QB Connor Cook (34-4 as a starter) has completed nearly 57% of his passes this season and only has 5 INT's on the season with 24 TD's. MSU has gone over the total in 5 of their last six Bowl games while Alabama has played over in 8 of their last nine Bowl games.
12-30-15	 Louisville v. Texas A&M +5 Top 27-21 Loss	 -108 24 h 55 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M +5 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
This is a big time value play here as we feel the huge line move was an over-reaction. The Aggies were once favored by 3 in this game and this game has now moved to Louisville -4.5 so more than a full TD move on this game. The obvious reason is due to the QB situation at A&M where both their #1 and #2 QB's have decided to transfer. While Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen were both highly touted QB's coming out of HS, both were young and inconsistent so it's not as if Texas A&M lost 2 of the top QB's in the nation. The new QB will be JC transfer Hubenak who threw for 4,000 yards last in JC in only 8 games! He's attempted 27 passes this season and has now had nearly a full month to prepare with the starters. We expect him to play well as head coach Kevin Sumlin has a way with first time QB's playing well in their first games under center. Louisville does not deserve to be a 4.5 point favorite here. This is a team that was 7-5 on the year and beat only one bowl team (NC State). The Cards struggled to beat WF, BC, Virginia & Kentucky (tied entering the 4th quarter) all non-bowl teams. The only SEC team they played this year was a "down" Auburn team and the Cards lost that one by double digits. Speaking of QB play, Louisville struggles big time at that position with Jackson completing just 55% of his passes this year with only 10 TD's and 8 interceptions. Despite the QB "upheaval" the Aggies have had, Louisville will not have an advantage at that position. A&M head man Sumlin has performed well in the post-season with a 3-0 bowl record with the Aggies. He'll have them rallied and ready here and the better team is getting points. Take A&M.
12-30-15	 NC State v. Mississippi State -6.5 Top 28-51 Win 100 20 h 22 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -6.5 over NC State, Wednesday at 3:30 PM ET
We like looking for good teams in bowl games if they are coming off a loss in their regular season finale AND lost in their bowl game last year. That provides some extra incentive to get it done in their bowl game. MSU fits the bill here as they lost in their season finale to rival Ole Miss & lost in last year's Orange Bowl to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs were outgained by 77 yards in their season ending 11-point loss to Ole Miss but prior to that they had outgained 6 straight opponents. MSU QB Dak Prescott will be the best player in this game and the Bulldogs want to send him out with a win in the final game of his career. NC State is 7-5 but they've beaten nobody and we mean nobody. They have ZERO wins over a team that ended the season with a winning record. Their two best wins when it comes to opposing team's records would be over South Alabama (who ended the year 5-7) and Old Dominion (who ended the year 5-7). The Wolfpack played 5 teams this year that ended up in bowl games and they went 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games with their losses coming by 17, 15, 15, 11, and 7 points. Mississippi State outscored the bowl teams they played 27-26 and outgained them by an average of 1 YPG. That may not seem like much but again compared to NC State that looks great as they Wolfpack were outscored 36-23 and outgained by 124 YPG in their bowl team match ups. MSU is the much better team and motivated. We like them to win going away.
12-29-15	 Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU	 Top 27-56 Loss	 -110 7 h 54 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +7.5 over LSU - Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET
We can't imagine the Tigers are all that thrilled to be playing in the Texas Bowl. Let's not forget that in early November this team was undefeated getting set to play Bama and there was plenty of talk about this LSU team getting into College Football's "Final 4". They hadn't beaten anyone that was all that great in their 7-0 run to start the year and this team was exposed down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games. All 3 losses came in blowout fashion vs the likes of Bama by 14, Arkansas by 17 and Ole Miss by 21. They did close out the season with a 19-7 win over a "dysfunctional" Texas A&M team at the time that has since learned both of their top 2 QB's are transferring. This bowl is a letdown for this team and they have historically struggled failing to cover 4 straight bowl games. Texas Tech is thrilled to be here and they can score on anyone. They finished 3rd nationally averaging 45.5 PPG. They should be able to score again here vs an LSU defense that was definitely down compared to recent editions allowing 24 PPG (36th nationally) with 3 of their last 4 opponents reaching at least 30 points. The Raider defense is not good but they are facing a fairly one-dimensional LSU offense that failed to top 19 points in any of their final 4 contests. LSU will score here don't get us wrong but we think Tech scores right with them. A few breaks and we have no doubt Texas Tech can win this game. These two had one common opponent this season and that was Arkansas. Texas Tech beat the Razors on the road by 11 and LSU lost to Arkansas at home by 17. That obviously doesn't always equate but with a very potent offense, and an excited team getting a full TD we'll take it. Texas Tech is the play.
12-28-15	 Bengals v. Broncos -3 Top 17-20 Push	 0 23 h 4 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET
The Bengals clinched the AFC North with Pittsburgh's loss on Sunday to a bit of a letdown might be in order here. It's also their 2nd straight week having to travel west after beating SF on the road 24-14 last week. It's not an ideal spot for the Bengals. In that game last week in San Fran the Bengals were actually outgained by what many consider the worst team in the NFL but benefitted from 4 Niner turnovers and 11 SF penalties. It was QB AJ McCarron's first NFL start and he was OK at best throwing for 192 yards against the NFL's 27th ranked overall defense. Now he faces the NFL's top defense in the 2nd start of his career and he'll have to play a whole lot better than he did last week to give Cincinnati a chance here. We're getting some value here at home with Denver. They are off 2 straight losses and really need a win here. Both losses were of the "deceiving" nature. Two weeks ago they lost here to Oakland 17-15 despite outgaining the Raiders by almost 200 yards. Last week they had Pittsburgh on the ropes at home leading 27-10 before a furious Steeler comeback netted them a 7 point win. Two very disappointing losses should have this team very focused in front of a national audience on Monday. This becomes a HUGE game for Denver as a loss here opens the door for KC to possibly win the division. In this situation, we're definitely willing to lay a small number with the home team that has won 30 of their last 36 games here. Take Denver!
12-28-15	 Central Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 47.5 Top 14-21 Loss	 -110 3 h 31 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points - Minnesota vs Central Michigan, Monday at 5:00 PM ET
First off we'll have perfect conditions for scoring here is this game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. Weather is obviously not a concern. The MAC has already participated in 6 bowls and most have been very high scoring with 85, 76, 62, 60, 49, and 44 points. Only one of those landed below this posted number and that was the Utah State – Akron match up at 44. The Zips had easily the worst offense in the MAC (bowl games) and both teams were far superior on defense when compared to their offenses. Even with that, those two teams still got to 44 which is close to this number. Minnesota's overall offensive numbers were not great this year but much of that is attributed to their early season struggles. Only one of the Gophs first five games topped 43 points. However once they hit the Big Ten, this offense looked much better. Over their final 7 games Minnesota games totaled 54, 73, 55, 42, 75, 55, and 52 points. They put solid points on the board against very good defenses including 35 vs Iowa, 26 vs Michigan, and 21 vs Wisconsin. The Gophers fired their offensive coordinator at season's end so we look for them to be more aggressive on offense with an interim OC calling plays. CMU has solid defensive numbers but they faced some very poor MAC offenses (and teams in general) so those numbers are a bit skewed. Central Michigan has one of the nation's top passing attacks averaging 313 YPG through the air (15th nationally). Minnesota's pass defense numbers are good, however they haven't played many top notch passing attacks. The Big Ten's best passing attack was Indiana and Minny didn't face the Hoosiers this year. The only other Big Ten offense ranked inside the top 50 in passing is Nebraska and the Gophers allowed the Huskers 48 points and 261 passing yards on just 18 completions (almost 15 yards per completion). The CMU offense was held below 23 points just 3 times all season and 2 of those were against top notch non-conference defenses (Michigan State & Oklahoma State). We expect both of these teams to move the ball and put points on the board on this fast track in Detroit. Take the OVER.
12-27-15	 Giants +7 v. Vikings	 Top 17-49 Loss	 -120 8 h 52 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
After back-to-back losses Minnesota bounced back with a convincing win over the Bears and a strong game from Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings have not officially clinched a playoff spot but they are in a great position as they simply need a win earlier in the day by either Carolina or Seattle (both big favorites) and Minny will be headed to the post-season. That may cause a bit of a "letdown" here knowing they are in. The bigger game is next week in Green Bay which will most likely be for the NFC North Title. While the Giants were officially eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, this line has been adjusted WAY too much in our opinion. The Giants have been competitive in all but one of their 8 losses including last week's 3 point loss to the undefeated Panthers. In fact, 7 of NY's 8 losses have come by 6 points or less. This number is now set too high with a over valued Minnesota team who is just 9 points better than the Giants in point differential. Take the points.
12-27-15	 Packers v. Cardinals -5.5 Top 8-38 Win 100 7 h 39 m Show
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Both need to win for playoff positioning so that's a wash. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast last week against the Raiders and now having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Green Bay won by 10 last week over Oakland but they did get outgained in the game by 80+ total yards. The Packers offense is pretty good but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona average nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. The Cards have a new found weapon in running back David Johnson who has rushed for over 378 yards in the past three games and has 12 TD's on the season. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career their is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 3-13 SU their last 16 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they win by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big.
12-27-15	 Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 Top 23-17 Loss	 -108 4 h 48 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41.5 Points - St Louis @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
The Seahawks offense has been on an absolute tear scoring 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The one game they didn't reach 30 points during that stretch they put up 29. Many believe the Ram defense is one of the tops in the NFL but they look to be running out of gas. They have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last week they "held" Tampa to 23 points but the Bucs put up over 500 total yards of offense so that number was quite deceiving. The problem has been the Ram offense but they looked to have gained some momentum the last few weeks scoring 21 & 31 points. With this number set very low, St. Louis may have to get to only 14 or so points to push this over the total. We'll look for Seattle's offense to continue their onslaught and top 30 by themselves. The first meeting between these two (first game of the year) they put up 65 points. While we don't expect those type numbers today, we think they can absolutely get to the upper 40's pushing this OVER the TOTAL.
12-27-15	 Bears v. Bucs -3 Top 26-21 Loss	 -135 23 h 17 m Show
PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We don't see the Bears showing up for this one. They are officially out of the playoff race and they didn't show up to play last week vs division rival Vikings – a 21-point loss. Now on the road again in a meaningless game we think the Bears are probably done here. Tampa is off a loss @ St. Louis but they easily won the battle of the stats outgaining the Rams by nearly 200 yards! Tampa continues to play hard as they have now outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. We realize the Bucs are out of the playoff mix as well but with a young team and young QB, they are building for next year. The Bucs have exceeded expectations this year while Chicago was anticipating a run at the playoffs and fell far short. Tampa has outgained their opponents by an average of 35 YPG and probably should have a better mark than 6-8. The weather also calls for 85 degrees and humid in Tampa which definitely favors the team that is used to those conditions. Look for Chicago to wear down in the 2nd half as Tampa pulls away.
12-26-15	 Indiana -3.5 v. Duke	 Top 41-44 Loss	 -104 4 h 33 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana (-3.5) over Duke, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
The Hoosiers are thrilled to be here. They haven't been to a bowl since 2007 and they haven't won a bowl game since 1991. Their team goal this season was to get to a bowl game and WIN it. After starting the season 4-0, IU was well on their way to accomplishing the first portion of their goal to get to the post-season. They then lost 6 in a row and many were down to the wire affairs with the top teams in the Big Ten including Ohio State (lost by 7), Iowa (lost by 8), and Michigan (lost in OT). In other words, they were still playing well but losing against very good teams for the most part. They were then forced to win their final 2 games to get to bowl eligible and they crushed both Maryland & Purdue to get here. Duke, on the other hand, fell flat. They started the season 6-1 and had much higher aspirations than squeaking into the Pinstripe Bowl. They were 1-4 down the stretch with their only win being a tight 6-point win @ Wake Forest. The others were all bad losses as they lost to the number by a whopping 60 points in those 4 games. They were outgained by at least a full 1.0 YPP in 4 of their final 5 games including @ Wake where the Deacs averaged 7.8 YPP and Duke just 4.8 YPP (Devils somehow won that game). The Blue Devil defense will have all kinds of trouble today vs an Indiana offense that ranks 18th in total offense (491 YPG) and 36 PPG. The Duke defense has been terrible down the stretch allowing 43, 30, 66, 31, 42, and 21 points. It might get worse today as the Devils are now without their All-American safety Jeremy Cash. IU can't wait to get this game started and we're not so sure Duke is all that thrilled to be here. The Hoosier offense puts up big numbers today and we'll lay the small number.
12-26-15	 Miami (Fla) v. Washington State OVER 62 Top 14-20 Loss	 -104 2 h 17 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over the Total (62) - Miami FL vs Washington State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
These two teams aren't known for their defenses as each gives up over 400 total yards per game, over 5.8 yards per play and nearly 30PPG. The Canes gave up 58+ points twice this season while the Cougars allowed 30+ points seven times. Washington State gets their starting QB back here Luke Falk who has the 30th best QB rating in college football (148.75), 2nd best completion rate at over 70%, has thrown for over 4,200 yards this season with 36 TD to just 8 INT's. He'll go up against a Miami defense that statistically is pretty good versus the pass but there aren't any teams in the ACC that throw it like Wazzou. Plus, Miami just suspended two defensive starters this week which will clearly hurt their depth. When Miami has the ball they're going to score points too against this bad State defense. The Canes have a solid QB of their own in Brad Kaaya who will exploit a Cougars secondary that allows over 64% completions and nearly 250 passing yards per game versus FBS opponents. Miami will also take advantage of a Washington State defense that allow nearly 5.0 yards per rush (111th in NCAA). The number on this game has been set too low and these two teams should combine for 70+ points.
12-24-15	 Chargers v. Raiders -5.5 Top 20-23 Loss	 -110 26 h 45 m Show
#102 Oakland Raiders (-5.5) over San Diego Chargers - Thursday, 7:25PM CT - We are going to play on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the visiting San Diego Chargers. As happens so often late in the season a bad team like San Diego gets a much needed win (last week over Miami) and then take the following week off in preparation for the off-season. We think that's the case this week as a bad San Diego team, that has scored just 3 points offensively in three of their last five games, and coming off a home game which might be their last in San Diego, doesn't show up. Oakland on the other hand outgained Green Bay at home last week but still lost by 10-points. San Diego is beat up on the O-line, at the receiver position and running back offensively. Oakland rates a solid edge in the running game as the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 120.6 yards per game. Oakland also has the pass defense that can contain what the Chargers do best offensively and that's throwing the football. Oakland is 10th in opponents yards per pass (6.6) and 16th in opponents completion percentage defense. Earlier this year when these two teams met the Raiders beat the Chargers 37-29 but that final is misleading as the Bolts scored a meaningless TD with 6 seconds left in the game. San Diego is just 1-5 SU on the road this season with that win coming at Jacksonville but their other losses have all come by an average of 8PPG. Oakland has lost three straight at home but they came against Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota who are all VASTLY better than the Chargers. The Raiders will give their home fans a big win here over a Chargers team that will be more interested in Christmas and the off-season. Lay the points.
12-23-15	 Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -7 Top 58-27 Loss	 -100 25 h 10 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bowling Green -7 over Georgia Southern, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET
Many times during the bowl season we like to go against teams that have abruptly lost their coach to a higher level job. That isn't an automatic go against but it is something we look strongly at. No advantage here when it comes to that aspect as BOTH head coaches have already moved on. BG head man Dino Babers took the Syracuse job and GS head coach Willie Fitz has moved on to Tulane. Both teams have already hired new head coaches from outside the program and the assistants that will be moving on are taking care of the bowl prep. Thus, no real advantage there. So all thing being equal on the coaching front, we have to side with BG as we feel they are the much better and more veteran team. The Falcons have been to 4 straight bowl games and they have 20+ seniors and a coaching staff (albeit assitants) that have been through this. Georgia Southern is playing in their first ever bowl game and they are stocked with young players (nearly 50 total freshmen/redshirt freshmen)! The Sun Belt has shown to be a fairly weak conference thus far in bowl season. The conference champion, Arkansas State, was whipped by La Tech. Georgia State, who beat this Georgia Southern team 34-7 to close out the year, was beaten by a 5-7 San Jose State team. App State held on for dear life to beat an Ohio team (31-29) that Bowling Green beat 62-24. GS runs the ball almost exclusively. They finished dead last in passing putting up just 62 YPG. We'll take the much more diverse and explosive offense in this one as BG averages 376 YPG passing and 185 YPG rushing. GS hasn't seen an offense this good all season in the Sun Belt. They avoided conference champ Arkie State this year which would have been a similar but not nearly as good offense. BG just took teams to the woodshed all season long as 8 of their 10 wins were by at least 14 points. Another beating here as we like Bowling Green big.
12-23-15	 Boise State v. Northern Illinois +9.5 Top 55-7 Loss	 -109 22 h 14 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois +9 over Boise State, Wednesday at 430 PM ET
NIU gets a big boost here with starting QB Graham returning to the line up. He was injured in the season finale vs Ohio and then was unable to play on the MAC Championship game, a 34-14 loss to Bowling Green. Graham started to take 1st team snaps in practice this week and we fully expect him to be under center when this game starts. Boise is a bit overrated in our minds. The Broncos were favored in every game this year yet still had 4 losses. Three of those losses came in their final six games – lost by 26 vs Utah State, lost by 7 vs Air Force, and lost by 7 vs New Mexico. This seems like a lot of points to be giving one of the more storied non Power 5 programs in a game where we feel the teams are quite close. NIU has 65 wins since 2010 topped only by Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State over that time period. Two of the Huskies losses this year came to close out the season with injuries at QB. Two others were tight games on the road against Power 5 teams Ohio State (lost by 7) and Boston College (lost by 3). NIU is 3-1 ATS as a dog this year and an impressive 25-9 ATS their last 34 in that role! The Huskies have lost 3 straight bowl games and they are sick of hearing about it. Expect a hungry and solid Northern Illinois team to keep this game close.
12-20-15	 Bengals -5 v. 49ers	 Top 24-14 Win 100 28 h 43 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE YEAR
This line is set too low. No need to over react with Bengal QB Andy Dalton out here. Let's not forget that his replacement AJ McCarron actually had decent numbers last week if you minus his 2 picks (22 for 32 for 280 yards and 2 TD's). Let's also not forget that McCarron will have the entire week to prepare with the starters AND it's not as if he needs to light it up as the QB on the other side is Blaine Gabbert who has a lifetime record of 7-25 as a starter. Even if we call it "even" at the QB spot, the Bengals are superior almost everywhere else. This is a 10-3 team, off a loss, that is still fighting for their division title playing one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bengals have the most efficient offense in the NFL and the 8th most efficient defense. The Niners are 30th and 31st in those categories. Sure San Fran is a respectable 3-3 at home but since catching Minnesota off guard here to start the year, their other home wins have come by 1 point over Atlanta (who has lost 6 straight games) and by 5 over Baltimore (who has a 4-9 record). This is a huge game for the superior team and the line is more than manageable. Take Cincinnati.
12-20-15	 Browns v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 Top 13-30 Win 100 19 h 25 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42.5 Points - Cleveland @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The odds are pretty good that Seattle will put up big numbers in this game. This offense has been rolling behind QB Russell Wilson who has had one of the best 4 game runs of any QB ever in the NFL. Going back 5 games, the Seahawks have scored at least 32 points 4 times. The one time they did not reach that number, they scored 29. Now they are facing a Cleveland defense that looked solid last week holding SF to 10 points but let's face it, the Niners have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Prior to last week the Browns defense had allowed 5 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. We expect that to happen again on Sunday. Cleveland's offense had been dreadful but received a spark last week with Johnny Manziel inserted as starting QB. He responded last week putting up 24 points on almost 500 total yards. He will put them in position again this week to put points on the board but also is prone to turnovers which may give Seattle a defensive TD or a few "short" fields as well. Either way, Manziel is a positive for scoring in this game. This number is set too low and we think it goes OVER easily.
12-20-15	 Bears +5.5 v. Vikings	 Top 17-38 Loss	 -110 24 h 17 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH
We've felt all season that Minnesota was playing above their heads and they weren't as good as their record might indicate. After starting the year winning 7 of their first 9 games, they are now proving us correct losing 3 of their last 4 games. Despite their 8-5 record, the Vikes are getting outgained by 25 yards per game. The Bears have lost 2 straight but as usual, both went down to the wire. In fact, Chicago has been right there in the vast majority of their games and could have a much better record. In fact, since their poor 0-3 start to the season, the Bears most recent 5 losses have all come by 3 or fewer points or in overtime. Despite their losing record, Chicago is outgaining their opponents by 30 YPG. These two met earlier this year and the Bears blew a TD lead with under 2:00 minutes left in a 23-20 loss. The Bears are just 1-6 at home but have a winning 4-2 mark on the road with wins over Green Bay & KC. These two NFC North rivals have had each of their last 5 meetings decided by 8 points or less. Another close game here and we'll grab the points.
12-20-15	 Panthers v. Giants +4 Top 38-35 Win 100 24 h 17 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
This is a MUCH bigger game for the host Giants. They are tied atop the NFC East with Washington & Philly and simply can't afford a slip up. Carolina has already clinched the AFC South and a bye and they will almost assuredly be the top seed in the NFC. There has been talk about head coach Ron Rivera giving some of his key players a break down the stretch to get them ready for the playoffs. Rivera's team is a bit banged up including QB Newton, RB Stewart (out), TE Olsen, and LB Kuechly all nursing injuries. Watch for him to be very careful with this team moving forward. The Panthers are coming off an easy home win over a struggling Atlanta team but in their previous road tilt they were taken to the wire in New Orleans. The G-Men are 3-3 at home but their losses have all come by 4 points or less including a 1-point loss to New England and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants have played nearly everyone close as 6 of their 7 wins have come by 6 points or fewer. We've got a feeling this one could be an upset. Take the points.
12-19-15	 Arizona v. New Mexico +10 Top 45-37 Win 100 235 h 8 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico +10 over Arizona, Saturday, December 19th at 2:00 PM ET - NEW MEXICO BOWL
New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in the post-season for the first time since 2007. Not only that, they get to play a home game! This is a Lobo team that was flying completely under the radar with a 7-5 record. They were under rated as well as proven by their spreads and results late in the season. The Lobos won 3 of their last 4 games outright as DOUBLE DIGIT underdogs. They topped Air Force in the season finale 47-35 as an 11-point dog. That's the same Air Force team that won the Mountain West Mountain Division and played in the conference championship game. Their other two wins down the stretch were over Boise State by 7 as a 31-point dog and Utah State by 1 as a 20.5 point dog. New Mexico is one of the top rushing offenses in the nation averaging just under 250 YPG rushing on 47 carries. They should have success against an Arizona defense allowing 188 YPG on the ground this season. It's also a "funky" offense to prepare for and one that Arizona doesn't see during the regular season. We're not so sure the Wildcat players will be interested in preparing for this offense as they were expecting MUCH bigger things this season but instead get a lower tier bowl bid with a 6-6 record. Zona QB Solomon is questionable with a concussion and if he can't go we like this one even better. Either way we like New Mexico getting the hefty points here.
12-17-15	 Bucs +2.5 v. Rams	 Top 23-31 Loss	 -103 6 h 36 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay +2.5 over St. Louis - Thursday at 8:30 PM ET
This is a bad match up for the Rams in our opinion. The St Louis offense stinks right now. They rank 31st in the NFL in total yards and they can't pass the ball (dead last in the NFL) because of their QB situation. Case Keenum gets his 3rd start of the season tonight and in his other 2 starts STL has done nothing through the air (136 yards & 124 yards passing). The problem is, Tampa has a very good run defense (allowing 94 YPG) so we don't see the Rams doing much offensively tonight. Really tough to lay points with an offense that averages only 16 PPG and team that has been outgained 5 straight weeks. The Rams have scored just 6 offensive TD's in their last 5 games. The Bucs have been a surprise this year. They are still alive for an NFC playoff berth so this is a big game for them. Tampa has outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are off a home loss to New Orleans so we look for them to be extra hungry here. After a rough start to the season rookie QB Jameis Winston has played very well with 12 TD's and just 4 picks over his last 9 games. The 6-7 Bucs have actually played better than that record indicates outgaining opponents 6.0 YPP to just 5.3 YPP. Tampa is 3-3 on the year away from home with wins over the Eagles, Saints, and Falcons. The better team is the dog here and we like Tampa.
12-14-15	 Giants +1 v. Dolphins	 Top 31-24 Win 100 6 h 6 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +1 over Miami, Monday at 8:30 PM ET
The Giants still have much more to play for as a win tonight keeps them in a tie for 1st place in the NFC East. The Fins are way out of the playoff race. New York has lost 3 straight but they've been right there in every game. Those losses include a 1-point setback to New England, a 6-point loss @ Washington, and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants led both the Pats & Jets with under 2:00 remaining in the game. Miami had a couple of high effort games immediately after the firing of head coach Philbin but they have tanked it since. After beating Tennessee & Houston after the firing of Philbin, the Fins have since gone 2-4. Their two wins were "lucky" in our opinion as they beat the Eagles by 1-point but got outgained by 150 yards and beat Baltimore (without Flacco) by 2-points but were outgained again by 150 yards. All 4 of their losses during this stretch have come by double digits. NYG are the better team with much more to play for. Take Eli Manning and company tonight.
12-13-15	 Patriots -3 v. Texans	 Top 27-6 Win 100 99 h 17 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Houston, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
After winning their first 10 games of the season the Pats have now lost back to back games for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2010 season. New England has not lost 3 games in a row since 2002. They are now 31-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss. The odds are with us that they'll get it done here. Last week's loss to Philly can be tossed aside. New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead but had one of the "unluckiest" games we've seen. They outgained the Eagles by 180 yards but Philly scored on a 99-yard interception return, an 83-yard punt return, and an fumble returned for a TD. The Eagle offense actually only scored 14 points and had just 248 total yards in their 35-27 win. Houston had somewhat of a resurgence over the past month and a half but most of their wins came against lower tier teams. Heading into their game last Sunday @ Buffalo, the Texans had won 5 of 6 with their wins coming over Jacksonville, Tennessee, New Orleans, NY Jets, and Cincinnati (the only top tier team). Last week the Texans came back down to earth in their 30-21 loss @ Buffalo. Houston is decent, but New England and Tom Brady will be out for blood after losing 2 in a row and at this low number we have to take the Pats.
12-13-15	 Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos	 Top 15-12 Win 100 96 h 25 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oakland +8 over Denver, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Denver offense looked terrible last week against one of the worst defenses in the league (San Diego). The Broncos offense tallied just 293 yards and only scored 10 points (they have a defensive TD) against a Charger defense that has allowed 27 PPG and 370 YPG this season. The Broncos were able to still pick up the 17-3 win against a San Diego offense that can't run the ball at all and has been held to 3 points in 2 of their last 3 games. Much has been made of QB Brock Osweiler and his 3-0 record but the fact is those wins were by 2 points vs Chicago, in OT vs a very depleted New England team that has now lost 2 straight games, and last week vs a Charger team heading south in a hurry. We still feel Denver is over valued and this is a nice spot to go against them with huge games vs Pittsburgh & Cincinnati on deck. The Raiders have had a rough go over the last month losing 4 of their last 5 games but they have been "right there" in most of them. They lost by 3 @ Pittsburgh, by 5 @ a now hot Detroit, and despite losing by 14 last week to the sizzling Chiefs, they actually outgained KC by 130 yards and they were +12 first downs. Oakland has been waiting for this game after losing 16-10 at home earlier in the year despite Denver not scoring a single offensive TD. The Raiders showed some life offensively last week and we think they do enough to keep this game close. Too many points here and we grab Oakland.
12-13-15	 Steelers +3 v. Bengals	 Top 33-20 Win 100 94 h 30 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR
We view this 7-5 Steeler team as one of the best in the NFL right now. They might be playing as well as anyone right now. They are off a game last Sunday in which they crushed Indianapolis 45-10 outgaining the Colts by almost 300 yards! A week earlier this Pitt team completely outplayed Seattle on the road outgaining them by over 100 yards but lost a close game due to a -4 turnover margin. With QB Ben Roethlisberger now back in the line up and healthy, Pittsburgh has outgained each of their last 5 opponents by a combined total of 718 yards. The offense is clicking as they are averaging 36 PPG over their last 4. In those four games the Steeler offense has put up 597, 538, 522, and 459 yards. Cincy is 10-2 but they are not playing their best football right now and we feel Pittsburgh is the better team at this point in the season. The Bengals are 3-2 their last 5 games but their wins in that stretch have come against Cleveland (twice) & St. Louis. Their losses were at home to Houston and @ Arizona. These two teams met back on November 1st and Pittsburgh knows they gave one away in that game. The Steelers lost 10-6 but outgained Cincinnati 356 to 296. The Black & Gold were leading that game with under 3:00 minutes remaining but gave up a TD & FG in the final minutes. If it weren't for 3 Roethlisberger interceptions ALL in his own territory and leading to 10 of Cincy's 16 points, we have no doubt the Steelers win that game. To say the Steelers have had success playing @ Cincinnati would be an understatement. Since 1991, the Men of Steel have won 20 of their 25 games @ Cincinnati. That includes an easy 42-21 whipping of the Bengals last year as a 3-point dog. This is a MONSTER game for Pittsburgh. Sitting at 7-5 they need this game to keep their playoff hopes moving forward. The Bengals are sitting in a much better spot and this is not a must win for them. Pittsburgh is the better team right and now and we're getting points. We'll take them.
12-13-15	 Bills -1 v. Eagles	 Top 20-23 Loss	 -115 93 h 22 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -1 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Heading into last week it looked to most like the Eagles had quit. There were rumblings of a divided locker room and players not agreeing with Chip Kelly, thus quitting on their coach. They had lost 3 straight games and it wasn't pretty. They lost at home to a bad Miami team and then were crushed in back to back games vs Tampa & Detroit. Did any of that change last week with their 35-27 win over New England? We don't think so. Let's face it, the Eagles had luck on their side last week. Despite the win, they were outgained by 180 yards but were able to score TD's on an 83-yard punt return, a 99-yard interception return, AND a blocked punt return. The Philly offense only accounted for 248 total yards and 2 TD's. They were also -12 first downs and minus nearly 10 minutes in time of possession. A very, very deceiving win. This team still isn't very good and they don't believe in their coach. They are facing a Buffalo team that is playing very well right now. The Bills knocked off a red hot Houston team last week and they have won 3 of their last 5. Their 2 losses during that stretch came on the road @ New England by 7 and @ red hot KC by 8. Those games both went to the wire and were undecided late. Buffalo is 3-3 on the road this year and still playing hard as they try to make the playoffs with a current 6-6 record. Philly has almost no home field advantage. They are just 2-3 SU here this year and 21-26 SU their last 47 home games. Their spread record during that stint is only 18-29 ATS. Despite their "lucky" win last week, this Eagle team is heading in the wrong direction getting outgained by 520 yards over their last 3 games. Take Buffalo here.
12-13-15	 Redskins v. Bears -3 Top 24-21 Loss	 -125 93 h 21 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
The Bears are off a home OT loss last Sunday to San Francisco. Despite the loss, Chicago was +7 in first downs, +73 yards, and +13:00 minutes in time of possession. They also had 1 turnover (0 turnovers for the Niners) but it was a costly one as it was a Cutler interception returned for a TD. The Bears missed 2 FG's and were in San Francisco territory on 8 of their 13 offensive drives. Conversely, the Niners only crossed midfield 3 times before their 71-yard TD pass on their first offensive play in overtime. Chicago should have won that game easily and we expect a huge effort on Sunday as they are now in desperation mode with a record of 5-7. Washington is working on a short week after losing to arch rival Dallas on Monday night. It will be a tough turnaround for the Skins after a huge division game. Not only that, Washington thought they had pushed the game into overtime scoring they tying TD with 44 seconds remaining only to watch the Cowboys quickly get into FG range and hit a 54 yarder to win 19-16. The Redskins have actually been fairly solid at home but they flat out stink on the road. They are 0-5 away from home losing by an average margin of -15 PPG. The Bears have the better offensive AND defensive numbers on the season. Chicago is +9 YPG on the year while Washington is -30 YPG on the season. We like the Bears to bounce back after a game they should never have lost and pick up a home win on Sunday.
12-07-15	 Cowboys v. Redskins -150 Top 19-16 Loss	 -150 5 h 29 m Show
MONEYLINE WAGER: REDSKINS
What an ugly Monday Night game tonight between the Cowboys and Redskins but somebody has to win (and cover) and we like Washington. Both have plenty to play for as neither is officially out of the Division playoff race. The Cowboys big problem with their offense that ranks 29th in points per game (18.5PPG), 26th yards per game (331.3YPG) and 28th in points per play (.298). They have been outrushed in three of their last four games so it's not just the passing attack in Dallas that is suffering. Dallas on the road without Romo has been horrendous this season averaging just 15.3PPG their last three away from home. Washington and QB Kirk Cousins has been dynamite at home this season with 5 straight wins and which have come by an average of 11.4PPG. Washington is better than average offensively in points per play, yards per play, 3rd and 4th down conversions and red zone TD's. The Redskins have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings and we like them to get a 7 or more point home win here
12-06-15	 Colts v. Steelers -9 Top 10-45 Win 100 8 h 44 m Show
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -9 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
The Colts have been outgained in 9 of their last 10 including last week's win at home vs Tampa. Hasselbeck is 3-0 beating Tampa, Jacksonville, and Houston but Indy was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined margin of -132 yards. Their luck runs out here against a very good Pittsburgh game. The Steelers, who in our opinion are one of the best teams in the NFL, are in must win mode with a 6-5 record. They outplayed Seattle on the road last week in a 39-32 loss outgained the Hawks by over 100 yards. 4 interceptions were the difference in that game. Roethlisberger has been cleared to play after a concussion last week and we look for Pittsburgh to put up big numbers again offensively. They have outgained each of their last 4 opponents by a combined 420 yards. On the season Pittsburgh is +0.7 YPP while Indy is -0.7 YPP. Last year the Steeler walloped a good Indy team 51-34 putting up almost 700 total yards. That was WITH Andrew Luck at QB. Pittsburgh is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner making them very dangerous. Steelers win by at least 2 TD's on Sunday.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl