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Monday Discussion : Spring in Our Sights & Snow Recap
March 11, 2019 by HVW
Our weak snow to sleet and rain event from Sunday, served as a late season reminder that winter still has it's grip on the northeast and Hudson Valley. We projected a widespread coating to 2 inches in the valley, with perhaps up to 2 to 5 inches in the Catskills. What actually happened, was pretty close to that…
We didn't put out a snowmap, because of the weakness and insignificance of the overall storm. But pretty much everyone from I-84 on south saw less than an inch, before melting began. The eastern Catskills did the best, with widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts… and some 4″ amounts in the highest elevations.
But now, as we move into the work week… the sun has returned, and temperatures are climbing well into the 40s. This should melt the remaining snowpack in most areas. We'll see a sharp NW wind usher in colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday… before a SURGE of warmth floods northward by the week's end. Highs in the 50s and near 60° are likely by the end of the week. A sign that spring is beginning to strengthen it's grip.
We will likely see 1 more blast of winter weather between March 17th and March 25th… where we could see a threat of one final winter storm. Once we get through that… it appears that springtime weather will begin to settle in, and winter… may finally be beaten.
More updates through the week, but for now… this week's weather looks quiet and chilly, through mid week. Have a great start to the week!
Categories Detailed Forecast, Forecast Discussions, forecasts, Storm Recap2 Comments
Friday Discussion: Tuesday Storm Recap
February 15, 2019 February 15, 2019 by HVW
The winter of 2018-2019 has been consistent. Storm after storm sees snow develop around the region, with a low pressure that cuts inland to our west. That sends warm air surging northeastward, over the cold air at the surface. The end result, is snow to sleet to freezing rain… and possibly even rain. Tuesday was no different, and much of the Hudson Valley looks like a mini-glacier, because of the 2 to 4 inches of glazed ice covering everything.
So lets press the "rewind" button, and look at how the forecast performed. As usual, we'll start with the Final Forecast, the Storm History Map, and the NWS snow totals.
As it turned out, our preliminary forecast was even better than our final forecast. We increased the snowfall ranges by an inch or two on Monday night, because some of the data we were seeing was suggesting the warm wedge of air would be delayed. However, that thin wedge of warmth would not be delayed or denied, and the changeover to sleet occurred right in the projected timeframe.
The result was widespread snowfall reports of 2 to 5 inches all around the Hudson Valley. That snowfall was followed by moderate accumulations of sleet, leaving many with 4 or 5 inches of sleet and snow to clear by Wednesday morning. If you compare the forecast to what the result was… only the Catskills were possibly a hair underdone. With many reports in the 4 to 7 inch range… the preliminary forecast would have been perfect for the Catskills. That said… many reports of 5 or 6 inches in the Catskills still falls within the 5 to 9 inch range.
Also, we received many concerned questions and comments leading up to the storm, because of other forecasts that were significantly more than what we were projecting. For instance, the National Weather Service had Orange county in a 5 to 7 inch range, Dutchess county in a 6 to 8 inch range, and Ulster county in a 5 to 8 inch range. Our forecast for all 3 areas was 2 to 6 inches, and was originally 2 to 5 inches. The end result for this entire area ended up being 2 to 5 inches in general, before a rapid transition to sleet.
It just highlights why we try not to focus on any other forecast leading up to a storm. To say that the NWS and Weather Channel projections didn't influence our thinking in the final forecast, wouldn't be totally honest. When you make a prediction, and everyone else has a prediction for nearly twice what you're projecting… it requires a bit of confidence to hold your ground and not be influenced. However, at the end of the day… the totality of our forecast (impacts, timing and accumulations)… was something we are very happy with an proud of. We hope that you found the forecast to be helpful in preparing you for what to expect. Our #1 goal is to keep you a step ahead of the storm… and our forecast on this event did that.
Thank you for all your continued support. It's what keeps us going and motivated. Have a great day!
Categories Detailed Forecast, Forecast Discussions, forecasts, Storm Recap13 Comments
Saturday Discussion : Finally Moderating & Tuesday Snow Recap
February 2, 2019 by HVW
The arctic cold will finally begin to exit the region on Saturday, providing relief after several days of bitter cold air. Just how cold it was where you were, depends on your exact location. Poughkeepsie only fell to a low of roughly -2° Friday morning… and only around +1° on Thursday morning. However… in Pine Bush, about 30 miles west… the Friday morning low was -16°… and Thursday morning was -9°! That would be some near record breaking cold if it occurred in Poughkeepsie. So it was bitterly cold for certain around the region the last few days.
But as Saturday unfolds, we'll shift the wind out of the SW and temperatures will steadily climb toward the freezing mark. By mid afternoon, most of the valley should rise into the mid 30s. That will feel like 50° for many of us, after the bitter cold of recent days. The warmth will continue into the next several days… into the early work week. The January thaw is running a few days late… but will get here just in time for the start of February.
Snowfall Recap – Tuesday Arctic Front
A bit of an unusual setup, as an arctic front saw a low pressure develop along it, and snow broke out across the Hudson Valley. Some warm air invaded the lower Hudson Valley, changing Westchester and Rockland counties over to rain. Where this didn't happen… where the cold held it's ground… snowfall totals were quite significant. So lets take a look at NWS snowfall totals, the snow history map, and our final snowfall forecast:
The Catskills performed very well, with widespread 4 to 10 inches… even some localized amounts upward of 12″. The 4 to 8 inches, locally 10″ that was forecasted… saw some overachievers for sure, but the region overall was well forecasted. The lower Hudson Valley was projected to see a coating to 3 inches, because of the warm nose of air that would invade from the southeast. The full extent of which, was uncertain… in fact, the reason zone 3 and 4 were in the 2 to 6 inch range, was because the surge of warm air was expected to cause the snow to mix with rain all the way north of Poughkeepsie. In reality, it made it up to I-84 east of the Hudson River… and knocked down snow totals to down to a slushy inch or two, on the back end of some rain.
The really challenging portion of the forecast, was the Mid Hudson Valley. The 2 to 6 inch range ended up seeing widespread 3 to 8 inch totals, even some localized totals near 10″. The reason for that, is that the cold air really held on west of the Hudson River. Those areas saw snow pile up, at a colder snow ratio than expected. So instead of a wet snow accumulating to a heavy and wet 3 inches of snow… it was a fluffy 6 or 7 inches of powder.
In general, the forecast was decent, considering the complex setup of this arctic front. The timing and impact was portrayed fairly, so that people were generally prepared for the event. Some of us overachieved, but that is expected in complex storm systems, where surprises will always be found. Hopefully you were safe, and enjoyed the snow where possible. Thank you for all the continued support… we really appreciate all the kind words.
Tuesday Discussion : Bitter Cold and Snow Recap
January 22, 2019 January 22, 2019 by HVW
The bitter cold has set in over the last 2 days, and since Sunday afternoon, it's felt more like Alaska than the Hudson Valley. Lows Monday morning ranged between -5° to +5° across the region, and similar temperatures are likely as we wake up on Tuesday… maybe a few degrees warmer. But after our bitter 36 hour blast of artic air, things will begin to slowly improve on Tuesday. Highs will climb about 10 degrees warmer, which sounds pretty good… until you realize the high on Tuesday in Poughkeepsie was about 10°. So highs in the low 20s are likely.
Things get even warmer on Wednesday, as another storm system approaches. A frontal system will spread rain showers into the region… yes RAIN. Temps will top out around 40° on Wednesday, so anything that falls, will do so in the form of rain. The showers are likely light by late afternoon, but the rain becomes steadier and heavier overnight into Thursday morning.
A pretty difficult pill to swallow for winter weather lovers, as we were robbed of snow by sleet and freezing rain in our last storm on Sunday. Then hit with a bitter arctic blast for Monday… only to rain again on Wednesday. But the long range pattern is changing. What we're seeing right now, is the weather pattern and jet stream trying to settle into a colder pattern. These are warm waves of resistance, that are the result of waves in the jet stream. Persistent cold temps are on the way… and with them, will come chances for snow. Being patient is difficult for snow lovers… trust us, we feel you.
Storm Recap – Saturday/Sunday Winter Storm
Finally, here are the recap stats from the last winter storm. We'll share 4 images with you. We'll share the Snow History Map, the reported totals, our Final Adjusted forecast (issued 9 hours before storm), and our Final Forecast (issued 18 hours before storm). Our Adjusted Final Forecast turned out decent… once we finally realized that the storm would track considerably further north than the mid-range data suggested. Our persistent conversation about how difficult the transition line was to forecast, and significant impact on snow totals, hopefully had everyone properly prepared… even if you were depressed about ice instead of snow.
Winter Storm Recap : Nor'easter Thu 11/15 – Fri 11/16
November 18, 2018 November 18, 2018 by HVW
Wow… what a start to the 18-19 winter season! Our first winter storm system slammed the Hudson Valley Thursday afternoon and evening, and lingered into Friday morning. The impacts across the region were very significant, causing some parts of the area to be crippled in terms of the Thursday PM commute. So we're going to go through this storm in detail, and discuss how our 1st storm of the season caused so much distress on the Hudson Valley.
To begin, lets compare the forecast against what happened. Below are:
1. HVW Final Snowfall forecast
2. The Snow History map… a visual representation of what actually occurred
3. The Final Snow Reports… from the National Weather Service
The primary criticism that was echoed from the general population across not only the Hudson Valley, but the greater Tri-state area, including NYC… was that nobody was forecasting this much snow, and that "we were completely unprepared". There was a widespread feeling about being caught off guard.
So how about our snow totals, where did they stand? If we break down our forecast into the 3 different forecast ranges [5″-10″, 4″-8″ & 3″-6″], and compare to what actually occurred, how did it compare? To do this, we try to quantify how much of the area fell within the forecast, and how many areas were outside the forecast range. Then we will assess the result of our forecast accounting for only the snow totals (not addressing timing or impact).
Catskills (zone 1&2): Forecast 5″ to 10″ ….. Western Greene, Delaware & Sullivan County were generally within this range, with lots of 5″ to 8″. Western Ulster County was on the high end, even exceeding a bit… with West Shokan with 13.0″ and Phoenicia at 11.5″. Result: Very Good (9/10)
Mid & Upper Hudson Valley (zones 3-7): Forecast 4″ to 8″….. Columbia & E. Greene County were within range. Much of Ulster, Dutchess, & Orange counties over achieved. Almost every report from those 3 counties fell within a range of 8″ to 12″ instead. Result: Decent (6/10)
Lower Hudson Valley (zones 8&9): Forecast 3″ to 6″…. Westchester, Putnam, and Rockland counties generally saw 5″ to 8″ on average. There was some overlap, but a lot of 6 and 7 inch totals were common. Result: Good (7.5/10)
So after looking at the details… the area that saw the greatest difference between the forecast and the result, was the Mid Hudson Valley. We expected widespread 4 to 8 inches in that area… but saw widespread 8 to 12 inches instead. A lot has been made of this… probably more than would be made if it was the middle of winter. Because this was the first storm of the year, and because of the impact on the PM commute, there has been extra frustration around forecasts on this storm.
So why were the totals higher than our forecast? There were two major reasons, in all actuality… and they're both related to the same root cause. Quite simply… it was colder than the computer models projected. It's just that simple, and it played out in 2 ways.
Snow ratios were higher than expected. Snow ratio means how much snow falls, for every inch of liquid precipitation. The standard average is 10 inches of snow, for every 1 inch of liquid… or a 10 to 1 ratio. This time of year, because it's generally milder than mid winter… it's common to see 8 to 1 ratios… which generates a heavy, wet snow. But this storm was so cold during the commute… the snow was fluffy and light, which made for 12 to 1, or even 15 to 1 ratios. So the snow piled up even faster than what we projected in some areas.
More snow fell… and less sleet and freezing rain, than expected. Also a product of the colder atmosphere. The total amount of moisture we saw was actually what was projected. The problem, was the composition of that moisture. Most locations saw all snow, until the precipitation tapered off between 9pm and midnight (80%+ of storm was snow). This is different than what the models suggested…
The computer models projected the wintry mix to kick in a little earlier (roughly 65-70% of the storm being snow), which would have kept snow totals a couple inches lower, with a bit more sleet and ice on top of the snow.
Final Forecast Verdict
In total, the forecast was really quite good. The specific snow amounts may have been 2 to 4 inches higher than forecast in the Mid Hudson Valley… but the impacts we highlighted in the forecast were precisely accurate. In EVERY text discussion, Facebook Live stream, and radio broadcast discussion we did… we highlighted just how horrible the commute would become. We spotlighted the trifecta of factors…
1. First snow of the season
2. Just in time for PM commute
3. Intense snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
We explained that the very cold conditions would lead to instant accumulations on all surfaces… something that is very abnormal for mid-November. We explained that the timing could not be worse. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, starting between 3pm and 5pm, would lead to conditions being fine one moment… and being extremely treacherous 30 minutes later. Then factor in that it's the 1st storm of the season… and it was a recipe for disaster.
If this sounds defensive, it's not meant to… but it's meant to be an explainer. There has been a lot of finger pointing by people in charge, especially in the NYC/NJ area. The conditions in and around NYC were exceptionally horrible, with major roads at a standstill for hours. Even locally, reports of 30 minute commutes taking between 2 and 3 hours to travel, had residents furious. Blame was being placed on local municipalities for not doing an adequate job, for not keeping the roads passable. That there is no excuse in the northeast for roads becoming parking lots… and people being stranded for hours on the roadways.
The unpopular fact of the matter is… this is what happens when it snows at 1 to 3 inches per hour, for 3 to 4 hours. Even if road crews had every truck on the road working as efficiently as possible… it is impossible to keep up with those snowfall rates. This is why we explained repeatedly how truly horrendous the PM commute would be, and to get to your destination before it started. There were far too many people on the roads, for the type of weather that was occurring.
Hopefully this event will be used as a teaching moment. Pointing fingers and shirking responsibility won't help make sure it doesn't happen again in the future. We'll work extra hard to make sure that we get the details as precise as possible, to provide the best information for planning, and keeping people safe. We're not always going to get every detail correct, but we can promise you that the difference between 6″ and 10″ was not what caused the problems we saw around the Tri-State. Thanks for reading… and thanks for all your continued support!
Weekend Roundup : Quiet End to the Weekend
November 3, 2018 November 3, 2018 by HVW
A wild start to the month of November, as we saw a wind blown rain storm push through the Hudson Valley and into the northeast over the last 36 hours. Here's the map of preliminary rainfall amounts since Thursday morning, as well as the Poughkeepsie weather almanac for Saturday…
The Hudson Valley is off to a very warm start, over 10 degrees above average for the first few days. Rainfall amounts are also flooding in across the region. The average for the month is roughly 3.5 inches of rain… and many areas saw over half of that in the past 36 hours. With more rain expected in the coming week… we are looking at the likelihood of a wetter than average November. This continues the 2018 pattern… which saw a brief break in the soaking rainfall during October, where we were actually an inch below average in Poughkeepsie at 3.4″ of rain (average = 4.47″).
So as we look to the end of the weekend… a much more tranquil day on Sunday. Winds will die down, and sunshine will be the dominant weather story. Mostly sunny skies with temps in the low 50s should do it. Making for a fine autumn day. We'll have to enjoy that, because some wet weather has its eye on the region for Monday night into Tuesday. So start factoring that into your plans. Full details are available on the 5 day forecast.
Thanks for your continued support of HVW!
Categories Detailed Forecast, Forecast Discussions, forecasts, Storm RecapLeave a comment
Summer Rainfall Recap : Super Soaker 2018
October 11, 2018 October 12, 2018 by HVW
Rain… it was the theme of the summer of 2018. At times, the rain fell lightly… at other times it fell at torrential rates. But it seems as if it was a day that ended in "Y", it was raining. In the 92 days from the start of July through the end of September… 40 of those days had measurable rainfall in Poughkeepsie. That's 43.5% of the time that it was raining… so basically every other day it rained in the Hudson Valley.
We've had MANY questions about the rainfall this summer, and how it compares to average… as well as if this summer was the wettest ever. In an attempt to answer this question, we've looked at the 3 month period from July 1st through September 30th. So lets take a look at September first… how much rain fell in the month of September across the Hudson Valley:
September was a very soggy month, but not record breaking by any stretch. Part of the problem may be that by the time we reached September, we were already rain weary. With roughly 150% of average rainfall in September, it was surely more than we're used to… but within reason. So now, lets look at August and September combined…
Now the water is rising above our ankles. In an average summer, Poughkeepsie would see roughly 8.5 inches of rain between the months of August and September. But in 2018, we saw nearly double that… at 14.5 inches of rainfall. This made sure the grass was always green, and growing like the weed that it is. The problem being, it was always raining… so when the heck were we supposed to cut the grass?
The Big Picture (July-August-September)
So now, lets look at the entire summer period… from July, through August, and into September. We're going to look at 3 graphics: Total Rainfall, Percent of Average, and Rainfall Amounts Compared to Normal. Brace yourselves, so you're not washed away in the monsoon…
Hopefully you're still with us, and haven't been washed downstream. An incredible amount of water fell across the region over the summer. Roughly 1.5 to 2.0 times the average rainfall on average across the Hudson Valley… and in the Catskills, 2 to 3 times the average rainfall. Over 20 inches of rain in many areas… and nearly 30 inches of rain in the Catskills! Truly incredible.
Record Breaking Rainfall?
One of the most frequent questions, has been, "Is this the wettest summer ever?". We always say that our 'weather memory' is short, and that most times when you feel like "this is the worst its ever been"… when you research the data, you find that may not be the case. We need to go back only to 2011 to find a comparable 3 month period across the Hudson Valley…
Now… this is not to say 2018 isn't extreme… quite the contrary. 2011 was an extreme summer across the region, in many cases the worst on record. In a matter of 2 to 3 weeks, Tropical Storm Irene and Tropical Storm Lee inundated the region with flooding rainfall. While 2011 saw roughly 1.5 inches more rainfall… 2018 was more consistently wet… with all 3 months seeing 6 or more inches of rainfall. The rainfall we saw in 2018 was better… because it was spread over a longer period of time, making for less flash flooding incidents than what we saw in 2011. But any way you slice it… both summers were just amazing in terms of rainfall.
So there you have it… 2018 was not the wettest summer on record, but it certainly was up there. Make no mistake, the rainfall we saw this year was extreme when compared to average. We have seen summers this wet in the past… but very, very few can compare to the super saturated summer of 2018.
The Soggy Summer of 2018 – Mid August Analysis
August 14, 2018 by HVW
Summer 2018 started out like your typical summer. May saw slightly below average rainfall, and the month of June was right near normal. Then an extended heat wave really dried the region out for the first 2 weeks of July… and then everything changed. We saw a series of upper level low pressure systems get cut off over the northeast. The result was a persistent SE flow off the Atlantic, and day after day of rainfall… heavy at times. This has left parts of the northeast under water, with millions of dollars of flood damage. Hershey Park was left partly under water, a car dealership in NJ saw half its inventory float away, and the issues continue to mount around the region.
So let's take a look at the rainfall around the Hudson Valley over the last month or two. We'll start with the rainfall totals for this past Saturday into Sunday, where we saw a good deal of rain on Saturday with the arrival of the latest upper level low pressure system…
You'll notice that even on Saturday, parts of the Hudson Valley saw upwards of 2 inches of rain. Which could have led to some localized flash flooding… but it looks like most areas escaped unscathed in terms of flooding concerns this weekend. We don't yet have the stats for Monday's rain… but surely it will only add to the totals you see above.
But when we step back and take a look at the month of August as a whole, through the 12th… just look at how wet it's been!
The average monthly rainfall in Poughkeepsie is about 4.2 inches. So the average rainfall for the first 12 days of the month is roughly 1.6 inches of rain. What the region has ACTUALLY seen in those first 12 days, is anywhere from 2 to 4 times the average! Poughkeepsie has seen 5.14 inches of rain so far in August… over 3 times the average so far in August. Widespread 2 to 6 inch totals have been observed across the Hudson Valley… with some localized areas near the Tappan Zee Bridge nearing 8 inches! As you head up into the Catskills, you're looking at a general 4 to 6 inches of rain… mostly due to elevation enhanced rainfall totals.
But if you REALLY want to be in awe… check out the last 30 days of rainfall in the Hudson Valley…
Just a complete deluge of rainfall across a very large area over the last 30 days. For a region where the average 30 day rainfall is somewhere around 4.4 inches… Poughkeepsie has seen 11.87 inches of rain! And unlike many summer rainfalls, that is not an isolated amount. Look at the widespread area of 10 to 15 inches of rain, represented by the bright purple colors. That's roughly 3 times the average rainfall over a 30 day period… enough to cause widespread flooding concerns. Ultimately, it's been so wet over the past 30 days… that any new rainfall immediately causes flood concerns to rise. The ground is completely saturated across the region… so we really could use a break from the rainfall.
Sadly, it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Projections have additional dips in the jet stream over the eastern US, which will result in multiple chances of rain.
You can see, that the unsettled conditions don't appear likely to go away any time soon. We do expect a break for the middle of the week, but multiple fronts are projected to push through the region over the next 10 days… and those could bring additional rain with them. The concern will be for heavy downpours, where heavy rainfall amounts occur in short periods of time. That's where the greatest threat for Flash Flooding will occur. We'll have to monitor the situation closely as we move forward.
As wet as this summer has been so far, it's not unprecedented in the Hudson Valley… not by a long shot. In 2011, in the matter of 10 days, we saw Tropical Storm Irene and Tropical Storm Lee drop 7.1 and 5.6 inches respectively in Poughkeepsie… for a combined 12.7 inches in just 10 days! When we look at the 2 month period, we saw a combined 60 day rainfall of 20.73 inches for the month of August and September, which is roughly a FOOT above average! So while this summer has certainly been soggy… it's not unheard of.
Hopefully we can get some dry weather to move in over the coming week or two. But if guidance is detecting the pattern correctly… it looks like there will be more rain in the offing, over the remainder of August. Thanks for reading!
Severe Weather Report : Tuesday, May 15, 2018
May 21, 2018 May 21, 2018 by HVW
Severe weather comes to the Hudson Valley every year, but thankfully events like what we saw on Tuesday are quite rare. A significant amount of damage was done, likely millions of dollars of damage when all is said and done across the region. In addition, lives were lost in this event… and our hearts go out to the friends and family of those who were taken by this storm… our thoughts and prayers are with you.
So we are going to try and recap this massive event. This severe event was so large in size and scope, that the National Weather Service was not able to account for all of the events in our area. We have allowed for several days to pass, and for additional reports to come in and verify… but still, there are some cases that are not accounted for on this list from the National Weather Service (NWS). So please understand that this compiled list and map will not be perfect. We have utilized the NWS database for the date, and removed reports outside of the Hudson Valley in NY. So below you will find 3 graphics… one for tornado reports, one for hail reports, and one for wind damage reports. Below those, is a map with the severe reports plotted by location.
National Weather Service Severe Weather Reports: Tuesday 5/15/18
The storm damage map is likely one of the busiest we've ever seen over the Hudson Valley, and it doesn't even encompass everything that happened. That said, just look at all of the severe weather reports on this map. In a 'typical' severe weather event for our area, we might see 3 or 4 'W's indicating damaging winds over 50mph… 1 or 2 'H's indicating hail of 1 inch in diameter of more… and maybe a 'T' indicating a reported tornado if the outbreak was particularly strong. This map has too many reports to count. Above the map, you'll notice 3 graphics where we've
4 Confirmed Tornadoes
The National Weather Service confirmed 4 of the 5 tornadoes that were reported. The Eldred tornado was classified as a severe downburst, with winds up to 95mph. But there were 4 confirmed tornadoes, and that is very likely the largest tornado outbreak in recorded history of the Hudson Valley. There were 2 tornado outbreaks with more confirmed tornadoes in New York… on May 31, 1998 (10) and May 31, 2002 (5). But those outbreaks were not focused in the Hudson Valley, with the 1998 outbreak being focused upstate (Saratoga area had an EF3), and the 2002 outbreak had 3 tornadoes in the Hudson Valley (1 confirmed in Delaware county, 1 unconfirmed in Dutchess county, and 1 unconfirmed in Putnam county). Prior to the periods discussed above… tornado data in New York is a bit more difficult to authenticate. So while we are certain that this was the largest outbreak in the Hudson Valley in at least the last 20 years… and are fairly sure it's the largest confirmed tornado outbreak in the Hudson Valley's recorded history… we cannot be 100% sure as of this post, that there was not a larger outbreak at some time.
Countless Reports of Hail and Wind Damage
The map is jaw dropping, with roughly 50 reports of wind damage, and roughly 20 reports of hail in excess of 1 inch of diameter… in addition to the 4 confirmed tornadoes and 1 reported tornado that turned out to be downburst… for a total of 75 severe reports in the Hudson Valley. In comparison, the May 31, 2002 severe weather outbreak produced roughly 5 reports of wind damage, 9 reports of hail, 1 confirmed tornado and 2 unconfirmed tornadoes… for a total of 17 severe reports in the Hudson Valley. It would take us a considerable amount of time to look at ALL the data on record to be certain, but it stands to reason that the May 15, 2018 severe outbreak was the largest severe weather event on record for our area.
Cases of Unreported Severe Weather Damage
For all the reports that were submitted to the National Weather Service, there were MANY cases of severe weather damage that were not reported. Likely the most asked about area, is an area near the Tri-county area where Sullivan, Ulster and Orange counties meet… affectively between Pine Bush, Walker Valley, and Bloomingburg. The primary road that traverses this areas is Burlingham Road. We have highlighted this area on the severe weather map above, to demonstrate that there are no severe reports that were given to the National Weather Service.
Due to the high inquiry, with no official reports listed, we (HVW) decided to do a brief assessment of the damage in the region, to see if a tornado had possibly touched down in that area. After a preliminary review, it's likely that a strong microburst or macroburst affected that area, with wind gusts over 60 to 80mph likely. There were dozens… maybe hundreds of trees downed in an area of roughly 10 square miles that we informally surveyed. Almost all of the debris was facing the same direction… as if a giant knocked over the tree from west to east… meaning that straight line winds were almost certainly responsible.
Hopefully someone from the National Weather Service will take a look at the debris, but this particular area faces 2 problems. The first, is that it is the intersection of 3 counties… and each county is covered by a different NWS office. It could easily be difficult to decide which NWS office should send a research team. The second problem for this area, is that no report was made to the National Weather Service by a trained spotter… and thus the NWS may not be aware of the situation. We're not sure if there is a certified NWS spotter in that area, but this is surely one of the problems with reporting and analysis of severe weather events… even today, in 2018. If the reports don't get made to the appropriate people, then historically speaking, it's as if the event never happened. We're not sure exactly how to fix this problem… but it's an issue that is surely worth future discussion.
In Closing…
This was a tremendous event, any way you slice it. From the severity of damage, to the size of the area damaged, to the number of people impacted, to the duration of time that some areas were without utilities. We expect that additions and corrections will be made to the data and reports as time goes on… simply because of all the number of things that need to be taken into account. We welcome additional reports and information in the comments section, and we will try to work those items in where necessary.
We have not had time to go through all the historical data. In fact, we may not even have access to all the historical data. Even so, when we compare this event, to one of the most severe outbreaks in the last 20 years… this event (as it pertains to the Hudson Valley specifically) has roughly 4 times as many severe weather reports. For that reason alone, it stands to reason that this was if not THE biggest event on record in the Hudson Valley, it is surely one of the worst ever. We hope you made it through safe and sound, with as little impact as possible. But we know that many of our neighbors were not so lucky. The community has been tremendous thus far, in responding to those in need. Lets make sure that we continue to do so. The Hudson Valley is an amazing place… with amazing people. Thanks for reading…
Storm Recap : April Snow Fools Nobody
April 7, 2018 April 7, 2018 by HVW
It's several days after the fact, but we never got to recap our Monday snow event. So with the weather quiet and cold for this Sunday, let's instead take a look back at the snow from last week.
Winter continues to plow through the month of March, and straight into April. When dealing with snow events on or around April 1st… it's frustrating as a weather forecaster. Everyone loves a good April Fool's joke, so everyone wants to assume (or hope) that snow forecasts on April 1st are indeed… just a joke.
Fortunately, or unfortunately… depending on your love or hate for snow and winter… Snow was indeed in the forecast for the night of April 1st and into April 2nd. It wasn't a major event in terms of accumulations, but any time you're dealing with snow in the month of April… it's a pretty big deal. So lets take a look at our snowfall forecast, against what actually occurred, and discuss…
A wave of low pressure pushed through the Ohio Valley and eastward to the coast. As the system reached our area, it ran into cold air, and produced snow over the entire Hudson Valley… with the heaviest amounts focused in the lower half of the valley.
Reports came in of snow and slush covered roads all the way down into the valley areas, which is quite a feat in the month of April. But when you get a burst of moderate to heavy snow falling in the early morning hours, the road surfaces can cool enough to get accumulation. Schools across the Hudson Valley had to close yet again in many cases… which will inevitably cost our local kids and educators a nice day in May or June, to make up the lost day.
Many schools tried to hold on to 3 hour delays, because the snow was expected to end between 8 and 10am, and the road conditions would improve rapidly with temps surging into the 40s by noon. But it's a REALLY tough call to make, and it's so easy to sit back and "Monday morning Quarterback" these situations. When your back is against the wall, and you have to decide whether to send the buses out and begin the day, or close school…. and you look outside and the snow is still pouring down… it's really hard to stick to your guns and start the school day.
In this particular case we had extremely high confidence in our forecast for the snow to taper in time for delayed schools to open safely. But we can appreciate why the person making the decision, would err on the side of safety. Forecasts have been proven wrong before, so even though the forecast says that the snow is going to taper off around 9am… when you see the snow actively falling, it's tough to put the kids on the bus… banking on the forecast to be right. Again… it's always easy to look at the situation after the fact and criticize it.
But it did snow into April… and now the question, is "will it snow again?". The jury is out on that… but the possibility is surely there. Time will tell… but the end of winter is now within view… and warmer weather is on the horizon. But this was surely an impressive snow event for early April.


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1. NOTRE DAME (1-0)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (2-0)
3. NEBRASKA (2-0)
Notre Dame's win over Purdue (page 28) was overwhelming enough but nothing like MICHIGAN STATE'S 42-8 devastation of Penn State. Quarterback Jimmy Raye threw two touchdown passes to Gene Washington, Bob Apisa and Clint Jones ran for three more scores and the proud Michigan State defense splattered the young Lions all over Spartan Stadium. "We just stood around and let them taunt us," said Coach Joe Paterno. "It was our fault—not theirs."
Ohio State's Woody Hayes watched in wonderment as Halfback Will Thomas grabbed the opening kickoff, ran it back 91 yards and then fumbled on the TCU two. "That," said Hayes later, "was the honeymoon. He got married last summer and wasn't in shape to run 100 yards." But the Bucks, mixing sophomore Quarterback Bob Long's careful passing (12 for 14) with Fullback Paul Hudson's plunges, survived five other fumbles to beat the Frogs 14-7.
Hardly anyone gave MINNESOTA a chance against Stanford. End Ken Last, the best all-around Gopher, and Defensive Back Dick Seitz were out with knee injuries. So sophomore Chip Litten, Last's substitute, caught a touchdown pass, and Gene Hatfield, in for Seitz, intercepted two passes. Quarterback Curt Wilson pitched out to Dick Peterson for one touchdown, scored twice himself, and Minnesota took the game 35-21. Illinois had MISSOURI on the run, too, 14-0, but then the Tigers adjusted their defenses to contain the Illini's sweeps. They caught up in the last quarter and won 21-14 on Jim Whittaker's 60-yard pass interception with two minutes to go. Iowa was never in the game as Bob Grim got OREGON STATE going with a 59-yard run. The Beavers won 17-3. INDIANA took Northwestern 26-14 in a Big Ten opener.
Larry Wachholz, NEBRASKA'S tiny safety man and the country's second-best punt returner last year, had never run the ball back all the way. Saturday he did, 72 yards, to score, but Coach Bob Devaney was not happy. Although his defense held Utah State to no yards rushing, he complained, "When we rush for only 91 yards we can't consider our offense O.K." Nebraska won 28-7.
Devaney should worry. Among his upcoming Big Eight rivals is OKLAHOMA, which clobbered Iowa State 33-11. Sophomore Quarterback Bob Warmack threw two touchdown passes, and Wingback Eddie Hinton caught eight tosses for 203 yards and ran for 88 more.
1. ALABAMA (1-0)
2. TENNESSEE (1-0)
3. GEORGIA TECH (2-0)
If all ALABAMA'S Bear Bryant had to worry about the rest of the season was a succession of Louisiana Techs, 'Bama would have its third straight national championship wrapped up now. The Crimson Tide rolled over Tech 34-0 as Quarterback Kenny Stabler threw two touchdown passes to Dennis Homan and ran eight yards for another score. Scrimmage over, the season begins Saturday when Alabama meets Mississippi.
Ole Miss was just about as good as it had to be against Kentucky. Tailback Doug Cunningham, the fastest of all the quick Rebs, darted for 111 yards as Mississippi won 17-0. But Coach Johnny Vaught was still not satisfied with his quarterbacking. Starter Jody Graves completed only two passes. TENNESSEE'S passing by contrast was much better. Quarterback Dewey Warren threw for two touchdowns, and sub Art Galiffa tossed for one while en route to a 28-0 win over Auburn.
Mississippi State learned first hand what SEC contenders fear: FLORIDA, which does not have to play Alabama, may be at least the second toughest in the conference. The Maroons had Florida in a 7-7 tie when the Gators suddenly exploded for 21 points in seven minutes. Their alert defenders picked off three State passes. Quarterback Steve Spurrier began to hit on his passes, Tailback Larry Smith ran like a demon, and Florida won 28-7. GEORGIA bombed VMI 43-7, and TULANE took Texas A&M 21-13.
It was no surprise when GEORGIA TECH'S crowd of good backs walloped Vanderbilt 42-0, but FLORIDA STATE had a shocker ready for Miami. Coach Bill Peterson figured the best way to handle Miami's Bill Miller was to annoy him with a light rush and concentrate on his receivers. The Seminoles forthwith intercepted four passes and upset the Hurricanes 23-20 on Gary Pajcic's 27-yard pass to Thurston Taylor.
"I kinda feel like a June bride," said CLEMSON'S Frank Howard before the Virginia game. "I know something's gonna happen, but I'm not sure what its gonna be." What happened was that Virginia's Bob Davis ran and passed for five touchdowns, and the Cavaliers had a 35-18 lead late in the third quarter. Then Clemson's little Jimmy Addison, who had his arm strapped up at half time, took charge. He passed to Wayne Bell for one touchdown, set up another with a pass and finally hit Bell with a 75-yarder to win for the Tigers 40-35.
Maryland's Lou Saban, who "released" four seniors after a loss to Penn State, got his first victory, over Wake Forest 34-7, while NORTH CAROLINA upset North Carolina State 10-7. But South Carolina lost again, to MEMPHIS STATE 16-7. William and Mary's Southern Conference title hopes went down the drain early. WEST VIRGINIA smothered the Indians 24-13 as Garrett Ford ran for 182 yards and scored twice.
1. ARMY (2-0)
2. NAVY (1-1)
3. DARTMOUTH (1-0)
Rarely had the East's major independents looked so feeble. After two weeks the Big Six had only four victories, and for some the worst was yet to come. Syracuse, which started the season with bright hopes, was soundly drubbed again, this time by UCLA 31-12. Quarterback Gary Beban ran and passed the big, slow Orangemen silly while the Bruins' 5-3 defense shut off Syracuse's runners. Not even Floyd Little's two late touchdowns, one on a 65-yard punt return, were consolation for Coach Ben Schwartzwalder. "We're just so inept," he said sadly.
Pitt expected to be beaten, and DUKE complied, 14-7, but not with the ease anticipated. Coach Dave Hart came up with a new defense for the Panthers, blitzing and using four safety men in an umbrella combination that discouraged Duke's passing game. But Fullback Jay Calabrese's winning 14-yard touchdown run finally solved the Pitt defense. Boston College was upset by OHIO U. 23-14 as sophomore Dick Conley ran 76 yards for a fourth-quarter score.
On what credit side there was, ARMY won its second straight for new Coach Tom Cahill, over Holy Cross 14-0 as alternating Quarterbacks Jim O'Toole and Steve Lindell led the Cadets on two touchdown marches. Mark Hamilton and Chuck Jarvis scored, and a tough defense did the rest. VILLANOVA beat Toledo 20-11, BOSTON U. polished off little Maine 20-7.
The Ivy League proved at least that it was master of the minors, if by unimpressive margins. DARTMOUTH, with two long touchdown runs by Safety Sam Hawken and Halfback Gene Ryzewicz, held off Massachusetts 17-7, while PRINCETON barely beat rallying Rutgers 16-12, and CORNELL had a time out-scoring tough little Buffalo 28-21. BROWN came from behind to whip Rhode Island 40-27, and PENN had to do the same to catch Lehigh 38-28. HARVARD and YALE had the easiest days. The Crimson battered Lafayette 30-7, and sophomore Quarterback Brian Dowling threw two touchdown passes to lead Yale past Connecticut 16-0. Only Columbia saw defeat. COLGATE, very much on the way up, mangled the Lions 38-0.
1. UCLA (2-0)
2. USC (2-0)
3. CALIFORNIA (1-1)
The season was barely under way, but already it looked like a two-team race between UCLA and USC in the AAWU. For a while last Saturday, however, use had its troubles with weak Wisconsin. Twice in the first half the Trojans fumbled away scoring chances, and almost every time Quarterback Troy Winslow took off on an option play he found himself face to face with Linebacker Bob Richter. USC Coach Johnny McKay soon fixed that. He changed blocking assignments and had a tackle take Richter whenever he shot toward the Trojans' strong side. This turned Winslow loose. Gratefully he threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Rod Sherman, and USC went on to win 38-3.
The other AAWU contenders were looking like noncontenders. Washington never got its heralded air game off the ground as the Huskies lost to AIR FORCE 10-0. Dark horse California outgained MICHIGAN, got more first downs but made too many mistakes. Quarterback Dick Vidmer picked the Bears apart with his quick passes (he completed 10 of 15) to Split End Jack Clancy, who caught eight, and the Wolverines won 17-7. But Bump Elliott had a good word for Cal: "They really come at you."
The first big game in the Western AC was no contest. WYOMING'S Dick Speights wrecked Arizona State's passing game with his early interceptions, and the Cowboys won 23-6. In nonconference play, BRIGHAM YOUNG took San Jose State 19-9, UTAH squeezed past Oregon 17-14, and KANSAS' young backs ran over Arizona 35-13.
1. ARKANSAS (2-0)
2. SMU (2-0)
3. TEXAS (1-1)
It is becoming clear that you can not completely silence Baylor's Terry Southall; you just try to muffle him a bit. Underdog COLORADO did just that, intercepting four of Southall's passes. The last interception, by Steve Graves with 51 seconds remaining, finally stopped Baylor as Colorado won 13-7 in the 79° evening humidity at Waco.
Rice was as unexpected a winner as Baylor was a loser when sophomore substitute Robby Shelton brought the Owls 80 yards to a score and a 17-15 win over LSU.
Before his game with SMU, Navy Coach Bill Elias admitted he had voted the Mustangs No. 1 in the nation. After the way SMU's defense corroded the Middies' ground game, Elias might have rated his hosts No. 1 in the world. Linebacker John Lagrone had 15 tackles as SMU won 21-3.
Another superlative defensive job was performed by ARKANSAS as the Hogs won 27-8 over Tulsa. Martin Bercher returned a punt 64 yards for one touchdown and Tailback Bruce Maxwell scored twice to give Arkansas its win. TEXAS beat Texas Tech 31-21 as Bill Bradley ran for two touchdowns, passed for another and quick-kicked 80 yards to the Tech one-foot line. Houston broke flashy Warren McVea loose on a 99-yard pass play and beat Washington State 21-7.
THE BACK: Virginia's gifted Quarterback Bob Davis set an ACC record by completing 26 passes for 316 yards. He ran for three touchdowns and passed for two others as the defenseless Cavaliers lost to Clemson 40-35.
THE LINEMAN: Notre Dame sophomore Jim Seymour, 6 feet 4 and bony, made a spectacular TV debut as he caught 13 passes for 276 yards (both school records) and three touchdowns in the Irish's smashing 26-14 victory over Purdue.
Mervin Hyman

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Fossil fuels.
Extraction of oil
Thermal Power Plant Cercs. Catalonia
Treatment of fossil fuels
Thermal energy and combustion.
Effects of thermodynamics
Photovoltaic Solar Energy
Solar Thermal Energy
Non Renewable Energy
Natural gas is a source of fossil energy, like coal or oil, it is constituted by a mixture of hydrocarbons, molecules formed by carbon and hydrogen atoms. Its calorific value varies greatly according to its composition, but the highest are between 8,500 and 10,200 kilocalories per cubic meter of natural gas.
Natural gas is a primary energy, or that can be obtained directly without transformation. The other primary energies are solar energy, coal and oil. It is the cleanest fossil energy in terms of waste and atmospheric emissions, and the most efficient fuel for obtaining electricity in thermal power plants, with a total efficiency of 50.7% compared to 25.7% of fuel, 26.1% of the uranium (nuclear power plant) and 26.8% of the coal. Its direct use, without having to previously transform into electricity, has a much higher efficiency of 91.2%. It is also cheaper and easier to store than coal and petroleum products.
For all these reasons, it began to be used as a preferred fuel since the 1960s, except for transportation, where oil continues to predominate. In addition, it is also used as the first subject of numerous chemical products. The construction of gas pipelines and natural gas trade has led to major armed conflicts between different countries of the world in the 20th and 21st centuries.
Properties of natural gas
Origin of natural gas
Natural gas is a mixture of gases lighter than water, non-toxic, colorless and in principle odorless. The main component of this fossil fuel is methane (CH4), a simple molecule formed by a carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms, although it also contains other light hydrocarbons such as ethane (C2H6), propane (C3H8), butane (C4H10) or pentane (C5H12) in a much smaller proportion.
The chemical composition of natural gas varies considerably according to its geographical and geological origin. The composition of this non-renewable energy source is usually associated with other molecules or elements such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen (N2) or rarely helium (He) that must be extracted when natural gas is used for industrial purposes and domestic. In some deposits, for example that of Lacq (France), there may be traces of organic compounds of hydrogen sulfide (SH2) and sulfur-containing organic compounds (bitter finger gases).
To extract the internal energy contained in the chemical bonds C-H, the combustion process must be produced, a thermodynamic reaction. In this way you can take advantage of the fossil fuel energy. The combustion is a thermodynamic reaction of exothermic oxidation of a combustible body (in this case, natural gas) with another oxidizing body (in this case, air) that acts as an oxidizer. This chemical reaction produces a release of heat energy and chemical energy. The phenomenon is usually perceptible by the presence of a flame that also constitutes a source of light.
Natural gas, like other fossil fuels, has been formed for millions of years by the anaerobic decomposition (without oxygen) of large quantities of organismesmorts remains deposited in what had then been the bottom of the sea or a lake. Over time, the organic matter mixed with mud was buried under heavy layers desediments, which subjected it to high pressure and temperature, without air, for a long time, which gradually altered chemically. From this anaerobic decomposition gases were released, especially natural gas.
Today, this non-renewable energy source, natural gas, is often in a gaseous state in bags that are underground near oil bags, which remain in a liquid state. Both fossil fuels are found in rocks of sedimentary origin, where geological phenomena imprison them, one, the other or both, giving rise to large underground pockets. The natural gas may be in the form called dry, that is to say, fully gaseous, or else in a wet form, that is, mixed with longer hydrocarbons, which are easily separated as liquids by compression, refrigeration or absorption.
Dry natural gas is predominantly methane (60% -95%), but may contain appreciable amounts of ethane (5% -20%) depending on the region where it is found.
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CA - Gas natural
ES - Gas natural
FR - Gaz naturel
DE - Erdgas
PT - Gás natural


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Psst, we have happy hour too. Stop by your local shack for drink specials and Crack Snacks.


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Leonardo DRS
SOCOM Sticks With Leonardo For Commercial Satcom
Leonardo DRS keeps on keeping SOCOM connected.
WASHINGTON: Special Operations Command (SOCOM) is sticking with its long-time provider of commercial satellite communications, Leonardo DRS, after an open competition for up to $977 million in contract awards over five years.
Leonardo DRS is the US arm of Italian aerospace and defense firm Leonardo, with a market capital value of $6.9 billion. The firm holds a majority share in satellite operator Telespazio and a minority share in Thales Alenia Space that manufactures satellites.
Under the new contract, Leonardo DRS will be providing and managing SOCOM's Global Access Network (GAN) system that matches available commercial satellite bandwidth to individual missions and links the command's far flung operations together. Under the contract, the firm will supply commercial satellite bandwidth, a satellite operations center support, and a secure and accredited terrestrial network to SOCOM.
"USSOCOM requires an integrated satellite and terrestrial telecommunications system to support the dissemination of command, control, communications, computers and intelligence information between USSOCOM, its components, and their major subordinate units as well as selected U.S. government agencies and activities directly associated with the special operations community," explains the company's press release.
The contract comes at a time when SOCOM is attempting to reorganize and reequip for future great power competition, eyeing innovative ways to acquire technology. Speaking to an industry conference in Tampa (where Leonardo DRS is based) last week, new SOCOM head Gen. Richard Clarke said he's looking to the defense industry to "expand and improve our ability in this mission area by developing suites of low bandwidth communication and collaboration tools that allow us to more rapidly and securely advise and enable our partners."
Ben Pigsley, Leonardo DRS's vice president for global communications, told me that the company has been providing network services for SOCOM for 17 years now. "We provide links to all commercial networks across multiple bandwidths: C, Ku, commercial X-band, Ka and L," he said. The system is custom designed for SOCOM, and links directly into the commands protected ground stations.
He noted that while the bulk of Leonardo DRS's work for SOCOM is commercial satcom, the firm also has a small role in helping SOCOM do planning for its use of the Wideband Global SATCOM system. It also is partner (with Rafael) in the Trophy program to upgrade existing Army vehicles with anti-missile systems.
Contract Award for Range IDIQ Support Effort
The Air Force and JTT-NG: A Situational Awareness Match Made in Heaven
Air Force Magazine
Link-22 Signal Processing Controller Successfully Completes NILE Block Cycle 9 Testing
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Q: Oracle 9.2 ORA-01122 problem with UNDOTBS01.DBF Something went wrong with our backup. What I did
shutting down db
recover the backup
restart db
after that I got this error
ORA-01122: Datenbank-Datei 2 bringt Fehler bei Verifizierungspruefung
ORA-01110: Datendatei 2: 'D:\ORACLE\ORA92ABO\ABO\UNDOTBS01.DBF'
ORA-01207: Datei neuer als Kontrolldatei - alte Kontrolldatei

the controlfile is at C:\oracle ... and the database files are at d:\oracle\ora92abo...
My guess is that the backupprogramm between backing up the d:\oracle files and the c:\controlfile the database restarts. so there is a moment between the backups where the database is running.
Guess thats bad.
I googled that the UNDOTBS01.DBF has something to do with cloning, with we don't use/need at the moment.
EDIT: Details to the backup method
step 1: shutdown via
spool d:\oracle\01shutdon.log
connect / AS SYSDBA
shutdown immediate
exit

step2: datatransfer
backup the database folder with syncback to NAS
backup the controlfile with xcopy to NAS
step3: restart
spool d:\oracle\02startup.log
connect / AS SYSDBA
startup
exit

A: OK here is what to do. Obviously substitute in your own values here.

*

*delete the UNDOTBS DBF from your disk. You still have a backup so it's OK.

*sqlplus / as sysdba

*startup

*It will complain about the missing DBF, don't worry

*alter system set undo_management = manual scope=spfile;

*shutdown and startup again

*alter database datafile 'D:\ORACLE\ORA92ABO\ABO\UNDOTBS01.DBF' offline drop;

*alter database open;

*drop tablespace undotbs;

*Recreate the UNDO tablespace. You DO need it.

*shutdown and startup again

You really really need to get hold of and read some RMAN documentation...

A: Firstly - when you did the restore, did you also restore the controlfile? I know it's obvious but check anyway.
In Oracle, there is a thing call the SCN, system control number. Every time you do a COMMIT, the SCN is advanced by 1. The SCN for the database is held in the header of each DBF and in the controlfile. What this error means is that your UNDO tablespace (cloning??? no it's to do with rolling back - undoing - a transaction) datafiles have a higher SCN than the control file. That is to say, the controlfile is older than the DBFs.
How exactly have you been doing the backups? Is it with RMAN? Or have you been copying the DBFs with the database running...? The good news is that if you have a good backup, there will be no in-flight transactions in there that you need to worry about.
It may be possible for you to workaround this by one of two means. Firstly, you could just keep on trying to start it - every start attempt increases the SCN by 1, so eventually the controlfile will pass the DBF. This may take a while. Or you can try recreate the controlfile. Find another Oracle, one that works, and do ALTER DATABASE BACKUP CONTROLFILE TO TRACE AS 'c:\temp\mycontrolfile.ctl'; Edit that file with the DB name and the new locations of your DBFs, startup and run that script and it will generate a new controlfile. Then you should be able to to an OPEN RESETLOGS.
HOWEVER if your backup is bad there is nothing you can do.

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.Owner says "Lets make a deal!! Great buy on this lot in lovely, gated, mountain community just minutes from Ellijay. Paved roads and lots of neighborhood amenities including pool, tennis courts, lake access and beautiful common areas for picnicing along rushing Turniptown Creek.


When I write all of these posts, I can't help but sit back and think at times, "I can't even follow some of these things myself"! Today I just wanted to give you some encouragement if you feel like you keep "falling off the wagon", or spending without planning on it.
I realize the principles of budgeting and saving can be very hard to follow, and in time, you will see them become a lot easier. But the fact of the matter is, it's never that easy to say "No" to yourself when you really want something.
You see that adorable pair of shoes in the store (that are even on sale!) and all you want to do is bring them home with you! Or you are walking through the grocery store, really craving your favorite snack, and you can't help but sneak it in your cart.
Trust me, I know the feeling. And before you know it, you are just drowning in shame with the fact that you just couldn't hold yourself back.
I would say most people regret purchases very often. They may not say it out loud, but when you are staring at that new vase you got a few years ago that is accumulating dust and doesn't match anything in your house, the guilt can start to set in.
So I guess the question is…how do you get back on the wagon?
So what if you messed up for a few days now, or years! It's not the end of the world, and even though you may be facing some serious debt, only good can come out of this from here. Keep your eyes focused on the future goal, and know that there is never a financial situation too hopeless. You can always start today on saving for your future.
The other day I went shopping and was determined to find a stripped pull-over hoodie (I know, don't ask why!)…and the only one I could find was in the men's section! So of course, as stubborn as I am, I bought it! Only to come home and totally regret my purchase. The most simple solution here is to return it. I know it can be a little embarrassing, out of the way, and just plain annoying, but I think in those kind of situations, you will feel a lot better if you do return it! So do it!
There will always be categories in our budget that we struggle with. For me, it's always the food and grocery section of the budget. Sometimes no matter how hard I try, I always seem to fail in this way. Either I go WAY over what I wanted to spend, or just a little bit over every week. But every time I look at our budget, I feel dejected and sad. What I suggest to other women out there who are feeling these same feelings is that you just need to see the good in yourself and not focus on the bad. Sure, I struggle with the grocery side of things, but when it comes to miscellaneous spending like a t-shirt I saw at my favorite store, I can usually hold back. Look at your budget on a holistic level, and make the most of every opportunity to learn what you need to work on, and what you already excel in!
Got any stories on how you've fallen off the wagon? I'm sure we can all relate! Leave us a comment below, we would love to help you get through your specific struggle. We can all improve in different ways, and I think that is the beauty of God's work in us, we are constantly growing!
Oh how I can relate……I have OFTEN fallen off the wagon with my spending – I think one of my biggest temptations is Starbucks. It is a comfort drink…I see IT as helping me be able to cope when I should be depending on my Heavenly Father for strength. But oh how the cost of those drinks add up. $4.95 X 6 (per week) = $29.70 X 52 weeks = $1,544.40 per YEAR !!!!!!!! YIKES !!!!!!!! Thanks for the encouragement Erika – just what I needed.


text:
By Tim Gattie
Report Highlights How the Boldt Company Cut Workers' Comp Costs by 75%, Joining 78% of Contractors Reporting Reduced Insurance Costs
A significant new report shows that the capabilities of Newmetrix' AI-powered safety platform are very much in line with the direction construction safety trends are moving. Dodge Data and Analytics is known for its yearly reports on key areas of construction technology and risk. From their annual report on BIM to regional construction outlooks and green building trends, they have firmly established themselves as a respected independent analyst firm, gathering data to understand current best practices and where the industry is headed. The most recent Dodge Data & Analytics report is on safety, an in-depth study of AEC safety trends and the fifth that they've issued since 2012. They surveyed 282 contractors — half of which were general contractors — and found that the construction industry is still as deeply engaged in safety as it was in previous studies.
Encouragingly, as Dodge writes in their press release announcing the report, the study "points to the likelihood for wider adoption of a data-driven approach" to safety. Contractors identified several technologies as most likely to improve safety in the future, including predictive analytics and visual monitoring with artificial intelligence (AI)."
The future of safety is data-driven
And a significant proportion of contractors, especially those with more than 100 employees, see data-driven approaches as the future of safety: the category receiving the most support of large contractors (32%) said that identifying the projects most at risk of an incident in the next week would strengthen their safety programs, and 28% said the same about making better use of the project and safety data that they already collect. When asked to name the top technologies that they thought would positively affect worker health and safety, predictive analytics and visual monitoring were AI both showed up in the top five.
In fact, within three years, the survey data indicate that the share of contractors using these technologies will triple, and that's not surprising given the benefits that they experience from strong safety management. Many of their responses are those one would expect, such as reducing recordable injury rates (73%) and workers who are more willing to report unsafe conditions (75%). But they also clearly see business benefits as well. An overwhelming majority of contractors said that investments in safety enable them to negotiate better insurance terms (78%), improve their ability to bring in new work (66%), see improved performance from trade partners (66%) and increase worker retention (61%).
In our experience, the power of predictive analytics amplifies these benefits. Newmetrix customers have been able to reduce their recordable incident rates by as much as 50% or more, and major insurers have expressed strong interest in our systems. In fact, The Hartford is paying for pilot projects for some of its customers.
Predictive analytics success at Boldt
The report describes in depth how three different contractors are managing and improving their safety processes, and one of them — The Boldt Company, a Wisconsin-based general contractor — is using Newmetrix' safety observations and analytics platform to reduce safety risk.
"There's a mind shift in the company that we've helped to encourage with data and reporting tools," Trevor Hietpas, manager, Insights and Analytics with Boldt, said in the report. "In the past people looked at safety as a series of unique events, but there are variables that influence it and they are common from incident to incident. Our recent and future investments in software are about broadening the search for those variables."
They're early in their predictive analytics journey, having deployed early this year, but the results are already strong. According to the Dodge Data report, Boldt has seen a reduction in high-risk, high-impact incidents, which has helped reduce worker compensation costs by 75% and cut their total recordable incident rate by 10%.
It's exciting to see the Dodge study confirm what we're seeing in the market, which is that leading companies are increasingly using multiple sources of data — from observations to manpower to photo analytics — to better measure and predict safety risk. The results are more efficient use of safety resources, reduced incident rates, and better treatment from insurers.
Written by Tim Gattie
Tim is VP of Industry Strategy at Newmetrix. He has 20 years of construction industry experience working for regional, national and international general contractors in roles ranging from Field Engineer to Project Director. Tim is passionate about using technology as a tool to improve the way construction projects are delivered and is eager to share his story with others in the industry. Gattie graduated from the University of Pittsburgh with a Bachelors of Science in Civil and Environmental Engineering and is a Registered Professional Engineer in Arizona, California and Utah. When not at work, Tim enjoys golfing, traveling and being a great dad to his two boys.
View more posts by Tim Gattie.
Predictive-based safety: Reshaping the landscape of insuring construction projects


text:
Debt Loans
Small loan disbursements see 11.5% annual drop in third quarter – The New Indian Express
By Judy J. Copeland	 On Apr 8, 2021
Through Express news service
BENGALURU: Small loans saw an 11.5% year-on-year decline in the third quarter (October-December 2020) in terms of value, although total disbursements increased by 80% from the previous quarter , according to a CRIF High Score report.
The report also states that the impact of the pandemic on households resulted in high defaults after the end of the loan moratorium. The eastern states of West Bengal and Assam, he noted, had been hit by the double impact of the pandemic and natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones, these regions recorded the highest repayment stress during the quarter.
Meanwhile, rural loan disbursements amounted to Rs 32,884 crore compared to Rs 36,235 crore in the third quarter of the previous year. For urban areas, small loan disbursements amounted to Rs 23,246 crore in the third quarter, compared to Rs 27,160 crore the previous year.
In terms of volume however, third quarter disbursements nearly doubled to 175 lakh. The share of loan disbursements less than or equal to Rs 10,000 recorded an increase of 11% compared to the previous quarter. This increase, the report notes, is largely attributable to the restructuring of loans offered by lenders and new small loans to eligible borrowers in the form of secured emergency lines of credit.
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Today's track of the day comes from Frank Iero and the Future Violents with their debut single Young and Doomed.
Frank Iero is back with his latest project! This time he is under the moniker of Frank Iero and the Future Violents and is joined by Evan Nestor, Matt Armstrong, Tucker Rule and Kayleigh Goldsworthy!
The band's debut single Young and Doomed is our track of the day today and is the first look at their debut record Barriers (May 31, UNFD).


This is a refurbished PS3 KES-400A blue ray laser lens. Replacing your old part with this new one will solve your problem! Save money and fix your system by replacing it at a fraction of the original one price!
Sealed with some foam in the original manufactured package box, so as not to cause less damage while on the mail.
Each laser is tested and in fully working condition. Suitable for console with PS3.


"Beyond the Bench" is a podcast about the legal system produced by the North Carolina Judicial College at the UNC School of Government. It is interview-based, with guests including judges, lawyers, professors, and citizens who have participated in court proceedings. Some interviews focus on guests' personal experiences and opinions, while others explore discrete legal issues. The podcast is organized by season, with each season being focused on a particular type of case. For example, season one is about criminal law, and is hosted by Jeff Welty, a member of the criminal law faculty at the School of Government and the Director of the North Carolina Judicial College.