text:
Tampa Bay at Toronto, September 12-15
Now more than ever, Jobu. We express our gratitude for an 8-2 road trip. All things are possible with your aid.
This is why we offer...
Fresh cigars, universally recognized as being of the finest quality, in this world or the next.
We offer an exquisite rum, patiently aged until it is worthy to pass the lips of a supernatural being.
We give all praise and thanks to Jobu.
For it is Jobu who makes the curveballs hang.
For it is Jobu who makes the changeups miss.
We just deal with the fastballs.
It's five games in four days against the devilish Rays, who just had a couple of very rough days in Yankee Stadium. They got four outs from their starting pitcher on Sunday after getting just two outs from their starter on Saturday. One assumes that their bullpen might be even more gassed than Toronto's, were it not for the nagging suspicion that Tampa Bay anticipates these eventualities, and has somehow prepared for them.
The Jays and Rays have met three times this season, twice in Tampa Bay and once in Toronto. Let's re-cap. First the Jays went to Florida for three:
May 13: Toronto 2 Tampa Bay 5 - A pitching duel between Rasmussen and Gausman; Tampa Bay led 2-0, but the Jays tied it on RBI singles by Guerrero and Tapia. But Gausman came out for the eighth, had nothing, and Tampa scored three for the win.
May 14: Toronto 5 Tampa Bay 1 - Another tight one. Each team scored once off the starters (Ryu and Yarbrough) before the bullpens took over. The Jays finally broke through for four in the eighth, homers by Hernandez and Jansen being the big blows.
May 15: Toronto 0 Tampa Bay 3 - It went awry for Alek Manoah when Matt Chapman, of all people, threw a double play grounder into right field, allowing the first of three runs to score. The Jays were shut down completely by Springs and four relievers.
Then Tampa Bay came to Toronto for five:
June 30: Tampa Bay 1 Toronto 4 - Yusei Kikichi went six strong innings, allowing just a solo HR to Paredes, fanning eight and walking just one. A brace of two run homers from Hernandez and Espinal accounted for the scoring.
July 1: Tampa Bay 2 Toronto 9 - The good times kept rolling. Berrios battled his way through five innings while the offense cuffed Corey Kluber and David McKay around the yard. Five third inning doubles did the trick.
July 2: Tampa Bay 6 Toronto 2 - In the first game of a Saturday double-header, Guerrero's RBI single gave Gausman an early lead against Rays' ace McClanahan. Alas, the second inning ended with Franco's hard shot off Gausman's ankle, that ended his afternoon and brought Casey Lawrence into the game. McClanahan vs Lawrence. Say no more.
July 3: Tampa Bay 11 Toronto 5 - The Jays summoned Thomas Hatch to start the second game. He was bad, awful, terrible, but he managed to pitch - if you can call it that - into the fifth inning, before being excused with his team trailing 10-1.
July 4: Tampa Bay 7 Toronto 3 - This was a tight battle between Baz and Stripling until everything went to hell in the fifth inning. It was the third trip through the order that did it: it went RBI single (Diaz), single (Franco), two-run HR (Ramirez.) That ended Stripling's day, with the Rays up 4-1 - Trent Thornton made it all academic by immediately allowing another HR (Choi), a single, and another home run (Arozarena.)
And the Jays went back down to Florida at the beginning of August for two more:
Aug 2: Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 1 - Bichette singled in Guerrero in the top of the first and that one run was all Gausman would need. He pitched eight innings of one-hit shutout, striking out 10. Jansen's two-run single in the top of the ninth provided some additional breathing room, which it turned out Jordan Romano would need as he immediately allowed a HR (Walls) in the bottom half.
Aug 3: Toronto 2 Tampa Bay 3 - A see-saw game, featuring Kikuchi and Yarbrough - the Rays broke up a 2-2 tie against Cimber in their half of the sixth when Siri singled, stole second, and scored on a Peralta single. The Jays had just one hit after the fourth inning.
The Rays will be without LH reliever Brooks Raley, who can't cross the border. No matter - they've got at least three other LH relievers. They think ace Shane McClanahan may be ready to start the finale against the Blue Jays. That would be Corey Kluber's day, but the Yankees chased Kluber after just 32 pitches on Saturday and he could probably come back a little quicker than usual.
The three teams fighting for position in the Wild Card hunt are bunched about as tightly as it's possible to be bunched. A little copy-and-paste from the ESPN page:
W   L   PCT    GB   HOME   AWAY   RS   RA  DIFF  STRK  L10
Tampa Bay 78  60  .565  +0.5  47-24  31-36  586  521  +65   L2    7-3
Seattle   79  61  .564  +0.5  38-31  41-30  589  523  +66   W2    7-3
Toronto   78  61  .561    -   38-29  40-32  653  586  +67   L1    8-2
That's three pretty evenly matched teams, no? This is going to be fun. But while the Jays and Rays are beating each other's brains in for five games in four days, the Mariners have a nice relaxing week ahead of them, the better to enjoy their back-to-back victories over the World Champion Braves. They're off Monday, they play San Diego Tuesday and Wednesday, and they're off again on Thursday. They then embark on a ten game road trip, that will see them take on those AL titans in Anaheim, Oakland, and Kansas City - then they come home to finish their schedule with ten games against Texas, Oakland, and Detroit. That, folks, is about the softest schedule any team could possibly hope for that doesn't involve actual old-timers. It's going to be really hard for them to mess this up.
Matchups, very much To Be Determined!
Mon 12 Sep - Berrios (10-5, 5.23) vs
Tue 13 Sep - Manoah (14-7, 2.42) vs Springs (7-4, 2.54)
Tue 13 Sep - White?? (1-6, 5.09) vs
Wed 14 Sep - Stripling (7-4, 3.03) vs Rasmussen (10-4, 2.57)
Thu 15 Sep - Gausman (12-9, 3.31) vs Kluber (10-8, 4.36)
Posted by Magpie on Monday, September 12 2022 @ 05:00 PM EDT.
Tampa Bay at Toronto, September 12-15 | 312 comments | Create New Account
Newest First Oldest First Flat Nested No Comments Threaded
Chuck - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#422019) #
No Franco in tonight's lineup. He's just back from injury so I wonder if this is just a rest day. We didn't see him the last time these teams played either.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#422020) #
The Jays face righty Cooper Criswell tonight. With his minor league splits it's nice to see both Biggio and Tapia in the lineup.
It's good that Yarbrough threw 65 pitches yesterday because the Jays seem to have a harder time against him than the rest of the league (and lefties in general this year). Unfortunately the Jays face a Tampa team getting back their two best players, Franco and McClanahan. At least Wander sits tonight because of the turf.
No pitching moves were made yet today, which means the Jays like what they've seen from Pop and feel they have enough bullpen coverage. Garcia and Romano are fresh, and Mayza/Cimber/Richards/Merryweather/Phelps should all be available, though pitching tonight would keep them out of tomorrow's doubleheader.
The Mariners schedule does make home-field in the Wild Card somewhat unlikely, but there is lots of baseball still left to be played.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#422021) #
El Dorado, distilled in Georgetown, Guyana, is a most exquisite choice.
Jobu is pleased.
John Northey - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#422022) #
With the O's falling back (5 1/2 behind the Jays now) and the Yankees heating up (6 ahead of the Jays) this is starting to move into positioning. The ideal spot is to be either the top wild card (home field for all 3) or 3rd (playing the AL Central winner - currently Cleveland who is 1 game better than Baltimore). 2nd wild card is the 'this sucks' slot - you get to play the top WC at their park. Of course, if that is Seattle then it is almost a home game for the Jays with tons of Vancouver people coming down. Being WC 1 or 2 means for round 2 you face the Astros, WC 3 would face the Yankees (if they hold their lead).
Basically, winning or losing to the Rays is a mixed blessing. Winning means higher odds of that ugly 2nd WC seed, losing means higher odds of the sweet 3rd WC seed. Seattle with their easy schedule should claim the top WC while the Jays and Rays beat each other up. Of course, the perfect situation is to win the AL East (3 vs the Yankees Sept 26-28 will either give the Jays a shot or end all hope for a division title). But that would require a very hot streak to end the season given that 6 game gap. It could happen, but the Jays need a lot to go right. The 6 games vs the O's that are left (including the final 3 regular season) could push the Jays out of the playoffs. But for now I see WC 3 as the realistic target. Given the Jays history vs the Rays (ugly) and Seattle's easy trip the rest of the way, I expect Seattle vs Tampa in Seattle and the Jays to get a shot at Cleveland in Cleveland. Of course, given Seattle last made the playoffs 21 years ago (2001) it is possible they totally blow it too. Cleveland, like the Jays, were last there in 2020. Tampa was there last year and has been there 3 years in a row.
dalimon5 - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#422024) #
Anybody know who the Jays are starting tomorrow? I didn't catch it the 4 times Schulman has pointed it out yet...
greenfrog - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#422025) #
The Rays have their Base Runs mojo working tonight. Their only three hits (singles) over 3.2 innings and counting all came consecutively in the second inning. Had they been scattered a bit more, the game would still be scoreless.
Mike Green - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#422027) #
Manoah and somebody (probably White) are starting.
Not much offence and a few little things has the Blue Jays down. So far, it's very much a Tampa game.
Eephus - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#422028) #
The Rays are a genuine insult to the sport of baseball. I know I moan and complain about when we play them, but I hate watching these games. There's little excitement, just ruthless efficiency. What's the point.
See you all at the doubleheader tomorrow!
For the record I am joking… well maybe 80 percent joking. I have a grudging respect for the Rays despite the extremely unpleasant aesthetic of watching them.
Good to see Bo is okay.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#422030) #
The Jays offence has been very inefficient over the past week, requiring 2+ hits per run. Hard to win when you only score when three guys in a row get a hit
Love seeing that steal attempt. Great job Tapia.
Wow that was an embarrassing at bat by Vlad.
Yeah that was pathetic.
Bo saves the day!
Mr September!
Nigel - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#422035) #
Love it when you can stick it to the Rays and the umps in one AB.
Wow. Just…. Wow.
uglyone - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#422037) #
So what do you guys think - was Bo just in a slump and now just red hot....or was he teaching himself a new swing/approach and finally figured it out?
because we've never seen this version of Bo before.
JBJ!!! That was impressive.
Clutch high-leverage-decided late season wins against the friggin Devil Rays are the best way to get me believing in this team.
BlueJayWay - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#422040) #
Sweet win. The Rays are so annoying to play.
I think it's both of those things, UO. I think he was slumping, and has altered his approach and is also red hot.
That was a monster homer and I agree with Buck about it being more impressive after he got it in the helmet
Cash probably should have put Bichette on but it's always tough to give a free pass to the winning run.
What a fantastic ballgame, minus some meh defense. The bullpen should have all hands on deck for tomorrow.
ae_scott - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#422043) #
Yeah, Bo looks like a different hitter - he seems to have basically stopped swinging at bad pitches.
As for Vlad - it looks to me like he's really pressing right now, particularly with runners in scoring position. I'm sure he'll come out of it, but I wonder if he needs a day off.
Magpie - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#422044) #
As for Vlad
The guy who singled, doubled, and scored the team's first run? Kirk and Teoscar go 0-7 and strand 7 baserunners and Vlad's the guy you're worried about?
As for Bichette, a few things come to mind. It's always the case that young players don't automatically improve every year. The league adjusts to them, sometimes it takes the player some time to figure out how to respond. A lot of little things weren't going his way. He was actually hitting the ball hard more often than the year before, but they kept finding fielders gloves. He lost a bit on his Balls In Play compared to the year before. He was also striking out quite a bit more, and he was especially getting called out looking at strike three more than ever before. He may also have come to think that he was being too aggressive, and needed to develop some plate discipline. One of the things he's talked about lately is simply embracing the type of player he is. He's not someone who works the count. He'll always be a hacker. And you have to be who you are.
Bichette may be a bit of a hacker, but he doesn't succeed when he expands the zone. He's not going to take a first pitch borderline strike, but he does have to avoid swinging at the slider 4" off the plate. He's doing that.
That wasn't a bad pitch that he hit, but he went down and got it.
Agreed on Kirk Magpie, he looked gassed to me today.
Teoscar didn't deliver but in the innings I watched he was fine
he doesn't succeed when he expands the zone.
That's true - that's always true! - but Bichette can hit a lot of different kinds of strikes with authority, on both sides of the plate. He can deal with heat, he can deal with the off-speed stuff. He's a natural!
mathesond - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#422048) #
The guy who singled, doubled, and scored the team's first run?
Yeah, but those weren't clutch situations, dontchaknow?
Legendary game for Bo.
Terrific call by Wagner on the game winning HR. https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1569511820041281537?s=20&t=aV-69u7PMfTLf_qFALP_0g
LHB are a career .289/.348/.480 vs. Rays lefty Jeffrey Springs who starts Game 1 tomorrow. RHB are only .232/.297/.403. It will be interesting to see how Schneider plays it, because you can make the case for Springer DH, Biggio 2B, Tapia LF, and Bradley CF with 4 RHB on the bench in Espinal, Merrifield, Jansen and Moreno.
He crushed that double, no doubt, but the single was a well placed grounder than came off the bat at 88mph. That's not exactly doing damage.
He also swung, twice, at sliders in the left handed batters box. The cut out of the strike out on the MLB app doesn't even show where the ball landed because it was so far out. That should never, ever happen to someone as talented as him
85bluejay - Monday, September 12 2022 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#422052) #
Just checked the box score - 23K attendance for a big series opener, that's got to be disappointing especially with reports that people are wanting to go out more with the pandemic receding.
Sigh. Vlad goes 2 for 4 and one of his outs was in part due to the ump refusing to grant him time (he should've taken the pitch). Meanwhile Springer, Kirk, Hernandez, Biggio, Jansen were 0 for 15. I think the standard for Vlad is a bit too high.
Berrios keeps on rolling. Mayza now 7-0, I think the 2nd most wins without a loss in Jays history (Dennis Lamp 1985 11-0 is hard to beat, same year Tom Filer was 7-0 - the 2 best end of season W-L records in Jays history, then comes Casey Janssen 6-0 in 2011, Liam Hendriks 5-0 in 2015). Yeah, W-L is more a freakshow stat nowadays, but it is still neat when a guy gets a ton of wins without a loss. The record in MLB is Tom Zachary for the 1929 Yankees at 12-0 so Lamp was just 1 win away from tying that oddball record. Roy Face was 17-0 on the morning of September 11th 1959, but lost the game that day, and ended 18-1.
FYI: for Jays team records in danger this year - GIDP is at risk with Vlad at 23 and the record at 25 (Troy Glaus 2006). George Springer's 92.86% SB success rate is #7 for the Jays all-time (3 perfect - Molitor 1994, Biggio & Villar 2020.
For pitching we have Manoah all over the place - 2nd for ERA to Clemens 1997 (2.05 vs Manoah's 2.42), WHIP Manoah is 1st all time at 0.994 even better than Clemens 1997 1.030, 5th for H/9 IP 6.789 (#1 is Clemens 1998 6.482), 4th in HBP at 14 (record is 16 by Carpenter 2001, Manoah 2021), ERA+ he is #7 at 162 (#1 is Clemens 1997 222). Gausman also up there, #7 in BB/9 IP 1.418 (#1 is Halladay 2003 1.083), #2 in K/9 IP (10.575 vs Ray's 11.545 in 2021), so of course he is #1 for K/BB ratio at 7.458 (#2 is Halladay 2003 6.375). For FIP Gausman is at 2.29 vs Clemens 1997 2.25. Quite fun to see Gausman and Manoah having historic years and both signed/under team control for years to come.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#422054) #
Fangraphs latest playoff odds ... AL...
locked in 100%: Yankees, Astros
near locks: 99.8% Mariners, 99% Jays, 97% Rays
fighting for AL Central: Cleveland 72.2%, White Sox 23.8%, Twins 6.6%
faint hope, but hope: O's: 1.6%, Red Sox 0.1%
For WS win: Astros: 13.7%, Yankees 8.6%, Jays 7.2%, Rays 4.7%, Mariners 4.0%, Cleveland 1.2%, rest sub 1% combined.
I'll take that 7.2% shot at glory. FYI: NL has the Mets at the best odds 16.6%, then the Dodgers at 16.0%, then Atlanta at 13.3%, all others 5% or less.
Michael - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 03:39 AM EDT (#422056) #
I remember in late July/early August many of us were (rightly) encouraging moving Bo down in the order as he was struggling (comparatively).
There's no way he's as good as he's been in the last few weeks because no one is that good. But if he can find consistency at the level that is about half way between late July and today that is still an incredibly high level of play that will be awesome for the team.
And yeah, Vlad doesn't seem to be the Vlad that we loved last year, but even this "slumping" Vlad is still really a very good player. Just not the MVP runner up and best non-pitching hitter in the American league. Heck, as long as Bo keeps up his insanely good level Vlad isn't even the best hitter in the Jays lineup right now.
And I still say this is a fun team to watch and cheer for, and beating Tampa hopefully brings more of the box fans along with them!
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#422057) #
There's a cool post from Kirk on Instagram of him and Jonathan Aranda - photos of them together yesterday and also from when they were kids on the same little league team.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#422058) #
Sept. 2022 stats so far:
Bichette .511/.549/1.128 / wRC+ 373
Soto .107/.286/.107 / wRC+ 37
Talk about rising to the occasion.
AWeb - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#422059) #
It's been my impression that no one on the team this year has spent much time looking like the "best hitter" on the team, so I'm taking a dive into looking it up on fangraphs since they make it easy.
April 2022 (14-8 record): Best hitter George Springer (WRC+168), runner up Guerrero (147). April offense was dismal in the entire league, but Kirk, Tapia and Bichette all stunk in particular - Kirk surprised me.
May 2022 (14-12): Kirk takes off (181 WRC+), Bichette (149) and Springer (125) also good. Hernandez was dreadful (.151/.193/.233, WRC+ 19), and Gurriel, Tapia, and Chapman were also just regular bad. Jansen good in limited time.
June 2022 (15-13): KIIRRRK! (211 WRC+) continues dominance, Hernandez (173), Biggio (172), Guerrero (168), Gurriel (160), Chapman (142), and Tapia (129) also great as well. Moreno's 91 brings up the rear, not exactly terrible. How did May and June end up with the same record, sheesh.
July 2022 (14-12): Chapman (205), with Tapia and Gurriel at 163, Guerrero and Hernandez also very good. Espinal and Biggio both struggle - Biggio's poor timing when it comes to seizing a full-time job. Jansen and Springer below average, Bichette and Kirk slightly above.
August 2022 (13-14): Springer (168) and Guerrero(138) lead the way, Gurriel, Merrifield and Bradley (great pickups, front office) all stink A lot of medicore hitters during a frustrating month.
September 2022 (9-2): BICHETTE!!!(373) leads the way, Guerrero and Springer struggling so far.
So the "best hitter of the month" award goes to Springer, Kirk, Kirk, Chapman, Springer, and Bichette (I'm calling this one early). Kirk is the only guy who was the best hitter for an extended stretch (May-June).
SEason total goes to Kirk (136), then Guerrero (135), Bichette (128), Springer, Hernandez, Jansen and Chapman above 120. This is a deep lineup without a peak. Guerrero hasn't had a stand-out period, but until this month has been the steadiest. Offense remain low overall , .709 OPS is the MLB average, and there are no pitchers hitting this year. Bichette's struggles this year have amounted to him being a bit above average most of the time. And his non-struggles (September) have been legendary.
scottt - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#422060) #
That was some AB.
They had to be pitching around him, unless they are not as smart as we think they are.
There was maybe the worse call of the game in that AB, a ball far outside called a strike.
That probably played a role. They tried to get him fishing but he went down and got it.
Vlad is dangerous when he's ahead in the count, but his numbers are not great when he's behind.
Any bad call against Vlad changes his OPS by several hundred points.
I have no idea why hitters need timeouts, but next year will be very interesting because of the clock.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#422061) #
What an incredible win. Interestingly, the extra wildcard has made the playoff race pretty dull this year. I think the difference between finishing first and third in wildcard is pretty small right now. Finish first and face Seattle and Tampa at home or finish 3rd and face Cleveland or Minnesota away? It's not so clear cut. Second is clearly the worst place to finish. Of course, the ideal would be to catch the Yankees. Anyway, I am a firm believer that you just need to play as well as you can and not worry too much about scenarios.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#422062) #
Bo has always struck me (and again, a deep dive into his career month by month results might bear this out) as a really streaky hitter since his debut in Aug 2019. The difference between him and a more average player would be Bo's hot streaks are white hot...and they last a month instead of a week or two.
The only aspect that stops him is prolonged heavy slumps for which last year it seemed like he only had one or two whereas this year it seems like several.
But again, the last month has pretty much bumped his numbers near last season's campaign where he was an All Star.
It really has been a weird season in a lot of ways.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#422064) #
Springer has been one of our top 3 hitters while playing injured. Healthy is out him at the top along with whoever is streaky out of Bo and Kirk.
The disappointment with Vlad is he's underperforming. That's what happens when you get the only 70 grade hit tool in the history of prospect rankings. Who else would have had that, Ted Williams, Cobb and Ruth? Vlad needs to do better.
Agreed Glevin. I guess we should be thankful they at least eliminated the
silly one game wildcard. That era did give us the Jays-O's instant classic in '16 but most of the games were duds, and weren't fair to some teams who won 90+ games and were out of the playoffs after one loss.
I also like the season series between teams as a tie breaker as well, but the Game 163 era also gave us the 2009 Twins-Tigers.
Now earlier start times in the playoffs, more afternoon games please.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#422067) #
TB, Baltimore and the Jays all have tough schedules. Great baseball.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#422070) #
I hate, hate, hate weekday afternoon playoff games. I work an office job so that means I have to miss the game. That sucks big time.
For a game that's obsessed about revenues, it never made sense to me that they don't try to line up all the games in prime time like they do in the regular season.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#422071) #
While the old format would have made a fun race between the Jays, Rays, and M's for the two Wild Card spots, I prefer the current format with the extra spot and the 3 game series. Getting either the 1st or 3rd Wild Card spot is definitely the most ideal outcome. The 1st WC means facing a better team in the WC round (and a better team in the ALDS if you advance) but homefield in the WC round would be nice to have. The 3rd WC means an easier WC opponent (AL Central), albeit on the road, and a better ALDS matchup if you advance (an injured/struggling Yankees team rather than the Astros). At this point I'm fine with either one. Just avoid the 2nd WC if possible, especially if the Rays end up with the 1st (a WC series in Tampa is, well, not ideal given the team's history).
Tampa has 3 games against Texas in the house of horrors, but no break until the 26 after they face the Jays for the last time. They also have 3 games against Houston before the Jays visit.
Then they finish on the road against Cleveland/Houston/Boston, again with no break.
Baltimore just had a day off.
They're playing 2 against Washington (NL Rival).
Another off day.
Then they come here for 3, go home to host the Tigers and Astros.
They they go to Boston for 4 games and New York for 3.
That's an easier schedule, for sure.
Hopefully they are out of it when the Jays go there to finish the season, but that might just make them tougher to beat.
The Yankees just had a day off.
They go to Boston for 2, than Milwaukee for 3.
Then they host the Pirates for 2 and Boston for 3.
They fly to Toronto for 3, go home to host Baltimore for 3 and finally host the Rangers for 4.
That looks pretty easy.
Today is a makeup game due to the lock out.
It wasn't planned by any means.
Nobody wanted to do the doubleheader on Monday after a travel day and it's always better to get it out of the way rather than wait for later in the 4 day series.
Ideally, they would have done it on a Saturday.
We simply need to get into the playoffs. Manoah, Gausman, Berrios and Stripling make a V good playoff rotation. We probably have enough bullpen strength.
But the hitting is troublesome. We lose many games because we can only score 3 or less runs per game.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#422077) #
Schneider has chosen to ignore Springs' reverse splits and goes with the all RHB lineup, and the Jays apparently pushed Manoah back to Game 2. Very interesting.
Gerry - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#422078) #
Manoah has a stomach bug. They are getting him fluids and he might start game two.
Merryweather and White for game one.
Hodgie - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#422079) #
The Jays have scored the second most runs in the AL and have the second highest wRC+ in MLB, hitting is not the issue.
Two thoughts on Vladdy. One, the criticism is starting to hit absurd levels. Baseball is hard and everyone not named Trout struggles at some point. Take a look at the players on the leaderboard and look at some of their seasons, especially their early twenties. Hell, I think it is neck and neck between Trout and Bonds as the greatest players I have ever seen, and you should see what Bonds did early in his career. If a 130-140 wRC+ is a struggling Vlad, then we should feel grateful.
Two, in looking at his struggles, I wouldn't be shocked if he has wrist surgery in the off-season. I could be very wrong, but he looks like he is cheating - guessing too much because he doesn't trust his wrist to let the ball get deep and still generate the bat speed to catch up to top-end heat.
Jordan Groshans getting called up by the Marlins.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#422083) #
"Jordan Groshans getting called up by the Marlins."
Good for him but still hard to see an everyday player there unless something changes. 3 HRs in 400+ PAs is just not enough power. Strikezone judgement is important but if major league pitchers know you can't punish them, they aren't going to nibble and your walks will go way down. (Look at Cal Stevenson who has amazing BB/K in minors but no power.) Groshans is a better prospect for sure and he's young enough and skilled enough to find another level but I don't regret trading him.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#422084) #
For fun, I ran a Stathead search on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. For ages 20-23, I used 1850<PA<2250 and 10<WAR<16 with at least 50% of games at first base. I got 4 names- Vladdy, Hal Trosky, Eddie Murray and Jake Beckley. Beckley was more of a balanced offence/defence player and had an arguable Hall of Fame case, probably just a tad short. Hal Trosky was a slugger in the 30s whose career was derailed by migraine headaches.
Eddie Murray makes a nice achievable target for Vladdy, although you would guess that Vladdy could do a little better at this peak and would struggle to have as long a career.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#422085) #
You are saying we are harsh then speculating he is playing injured. Doesn't that presume that he is not playing up to his level? That's the criticism that's been made… that he is underperforming.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#422086) #
"Good for him but still hard to see an everyday player there unless something changes"
my usual approach to prospects is to see how many holes they have in their lines before i look at how strong they are in each. 1 hole means the prospect is pretty good, 2 holes means they might still be good but pretty risky, and 3 holes usually means a non prospect.
right now Groshans is a one-hole prospect (power), but that one hole is mitigated by the fact that a) he's young for the level, b) power develops later, and c) he's shown at least medium pop for most of his milb career before this year.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#422088) #
I'd Merryweather is getting there in terms of his stuff and location. A couple of hangers, but he mostly hit his spots and the velocity is back to where it was. A positive sign.
Romano's 33 saves are the 11th best in team history. He needs 6 more to tie Osuna for 2nd best. 12 more to tie Ward for first.
He has a 50era-. Of the guys in the top-20 in franchise saves in a season, here's every one that also ranks top-20 in reliever ERA- in a season (qualified):
* 1. Ryan '06: 38svs, 30era-
* 2. Accardo '07: 30svs, 48era-
* 3. Ward '93: 45svs, 49era-
* 4. Romano '22: 33svs, 50era-
* 5. Koch '00: 33svs, 53era-
though I should make note that the Terminator just missed many times over:
* 6. Henke '87: 34svs, 55era-
Buck Martinez holds no punches since coming back from treatment. He's so much better now.
Aranda looked uncomfortable at first base. I'd be trying to go the other way down the line.
time to pull the plug on this mitch white experiment.
Batted ball luck not going the Jays way so far today.
Really, UO? The Rays have had nothing against White. A bunch of 70-90 mph ground balls and fliners.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#422096) #
Truly horrendous defense. Clean it up boys.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#422097) #
I thought that Hernandez had a decent first half of the year on defence - nothing spectacular but very few WTF moments. He's had a rough second half on that side of things.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#422098) #
I thought that Hernandez had a decent first half of the year on defence
It's very weird, but he's always been especially bad in left field. Makes little sense.
I too, thought Teoscar had really been solid in right this season. His decline overall, including at the plate, seems linked the foul ball he took off the foot earlier this season. I can't quite remember what game or series it was, but to me it's not a coincidence.
White pitching well, just some terrible luck and terrible D behind him.
scottt - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#422101) #
Left field is usually played by infielders.
Somehow the angle on ball hits is different.
Teoscar, like any half-decent outfielder mostly played CF in the minors.
Even when doing fielding practice, guy are working one at a time in center field.
No error on Teoscar on the Arozarena play? You must be kidding me.
White getting tagged for 3 earned runs? Poor guy just can't catch a break.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#422104) #
Agreed, that's a weird change by the scorer. Teo's throw was nowhere close to anything.
That's a joke scoring decision.
If Vladdy had got his foot on the bag, it would have been a one-run inning. White has pitched well.
I think it's technically correct, on the same basis that they can never assume the double play. Arozarena kept running, and beat the throw. The scorer can't assume he would have been thrown out, even though he should have been. The batter took second on the throw, and that's business as usual.
Tremendous performance from White, who shouldn't be getting pulled after 83 pitchers over 6 strong innings. The Jays create their own bullpen problems.
The Jays ran into Ramon de Jesus, today's home plate umpire, back in June and no one was impressed. He worked the game before the Doug Eddings game - the crews have evidently changed since then - and called 10 of his 50 called strikes were actually outside the zone.
But I notice Doug Eddings isn't down at first base.
Shulman said they have an extra umpire added for the DH and that Eddings should be in Game 2.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#422111) #
Good at bat by Tapia there. He just got beat by a really well placed cutter.
OK. I'm going to have get out my rulebook. If that's not an error, the rulebook obviously needs an amendment. It's nothing like a double play.
92-93, given his last few outings, I think it made sense to pull White when they did, rather than have him face the heart of their order a third time. Let him leave on a high note with some confidence, rather than risk losing that in exchange for 3 more outs
Magpie, you might be right but I could have sworn that I have seen errors called in that situation where the ball was dropped (from a good throw). I just don't see it like a DP.
The 3rd time through the order down 4-0 shouldn't matter when you have another game tonight, a bullpen that threw a lot of pitches yesterday, and a probable SP with a stomach bug. They're also going to need a bullpen day on Friday because no starter will be available. These games matter more than White's confidence, whatever that even means.
Coke to Mike.
Put another way, I thought that that was a scorer's decision just like if a 3B airmails a throw to 1B on a routine GB.
The Official Scorer shall charge an error against any fielder: (5) whose wild throw permits a runner to reach a base safely, when in the scorer's judgment a good throw would have put out the runner.
But...Rule 9.12(a)(1) Comment: Slow handling of the ball that does not involve mechanical misplay shall not be construed as an error. For example, the Official Scorer shall not charge a fielder with an error if such fielder fields a ground ball cleanly but does not throw to first base in time to retire the batter.
Yeah, it's not really like a double play where an out's already been recorded. But if it was a noodle arm like Dickerson and Tapia and the throw bounced twice and was five feet up the line - I don't think that would be an error.
I agree with that Magpie - that's why I think its a subjective decision. It's probably one that more often than not the scorer gives the OF the benefit of the doubt. In this case, however, I think the decision was pretty easy to make. A decent throw and the runner's DOA. That's an error for me every time.
ok vladito this is your time.
electric carrot - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#422121) #
Tampa has got to consider intentionally walking Bo here.
glad they didn't
Epic effort by Bichette.
Gerry - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#422125) #
Manoah will be well enough to start game two.
Have Teoscar and Alejandro offended you in some way, mighty Jobu? They need your support as well.
I don't know, Magpie. They both look tired. It would probably have been a good game to have Biggio start as DH instead of Kirk. I think he would have had more luck hitting against Springs and Kirk could have used the afternoon off. Teo is understandably tired, but it might get better in a few days. Actually now that I think of it, he could have used a few hours this morning and they could have given Tapia the start in LF. 92-93 suggested something like this.
I'd consider switching Bichette with Vladimir Guerrero Jr for game 2 line up order.
Interesting to hear Buck (who can be long winded in his anecdotes of course) compare Manoah's slider to Dave Stieb. No surprise Buck chose the fella he caught for years, but seeing only video of Stieb I'd say he's correct. That thing moved a ton.
Buck is absolutely correct about that.
Yep - peak Dave Stieb's slider was the nastiest breaking pitch in baseball (at the time) and I'm not sure it was that close.
In the 70s, it was probably Blyleven's 12 to 6 curve. After that, it was Stieb's slider.
What would people say is the best single pitch in MLB today? Kershaw's curveball? Clay Holmes' sinker? Wainwright's curve? Edwin Diaz's heater? Gausman's splitter? Plenty of choices and I'm sure I'm missing a bunch.
I'm sure Emmanuel Clase is in this conversation as well.
Would be nice if the Jays could hit the ball not on the ground once in a while. Just saw that Vlad has a 78% GB with RISP since August 1st and that's depressing.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#422137) #
Top of this lineup other than Bo is awful lately. Sorry an occasional 2 hit game isn't going to cut it Vlad but yet at the same time everyone else is cold too.
de Grom's slider is something out of a nightmare.
On a positive note, the 4K broadcast is outstanding. The quality of the picture is unreal. I've had a 4K set up for 4 or 5 years and it wasn't until this year that I've seen a big improvement when it comes to Blue Jay games. The colour and detail is remarkable. Especially when they cut to the moving camera behind home plate, just looks like a video game.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#422140) #
Top pitch might belong to whomever happens to be throwing all these heavy, devastating sinkers to Guerrero Jr. and Springer.
Is there a team worse at challenges than the Jays? That was pretty clearly an out. Why challenge?
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#422142) #
"Sorry an occasional 2 hit game isn't going to cut it Vlad"
Just hit a double and scored the tying run in a big game. It's a start.
This is a big inning. Important to get the shutdown inning after scoring.
Held 'em for 1 pitch
lexomatic - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#422145) #
Is there a team that gives up a lead run immediately after tying as consistently as the Jays?
Time to execute and capitalize.
Best trade ever.
Whit Merrifield, a true Blue Jay!
love my blue jays!
Spring Shoes baby.
Really good AB by Jansen. I think pulling Jansen for a PR was actually a bad decision but sometimes bad decisions have good outcomes. They really needed that from Merrifield and Springer!
Ha ha, a little scorn from your truly leads to great responses from
Vladdy and Springer. You're welcome, everyone!
That inning really showed the value of taking a walk when the pitcher isn't throwing strikes. The two walks set the Jays up for success.
I think pulling Jansen for a PR was actually a bad decision but sometimes bad decisions have good outcomes.
Zimmer was going to have to replace Tapia in the outfield anyway. Might as well get him in there right away. And Jansen runs well but he doesn't score on that double.
Aaron Judge just hit number 57 and the ball may be crossing the border by now. It left Fenway some time ago.
You are correct Magpie. I had forgotten that Springer was DH'ing.
Watching Kirk score from first on a double is one of the great pleasures of the season.
Nice to see the offence awaken from its slumbers.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#422158) #
Siri, how many outs are there? Cannot compute. Divide by zero error.
https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1569868873179987968
grjas - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#422160) #
Manoah rises from his sick bed to throw another gem against a key competitor. What. A. Stud.
He has been money. He had a blip there in August but has really recovered and caught his second wind. Impressive for a guy blowing past his career high for IP. What a joy it's been to see him become such a star so quickly.
I was at the game and it looked like Garcia was warming up before Bass, but the game situation didn't change at all (down 2-1). Did the broadcast say anything about that? Hopefully Yimi is okay.
It looked like a bad challenge, but in the bottom of the 6th inning if you think it's close enough you might as well use it or lose it.
Hopefully the Jays learned their lesson today and don't roll another all-righty lineup against Springs when they face him again next weekend. The players who arguably shouldn't have been in the game (Kirk, Merrifield, and Espinal) went 1 for 7 with a single and a walk.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 13 2022 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#422163) #
First game sucked, but at least it was close with the winning run getting to the plate in the 9th. 2nd game was amazing with Manoah off his sick bed coming in and throwing 6+ again, Kirk getting an infield single again, then scoring on that double which was so much fun to watch on TV. Merrifield getting that clutch hit was massive too - boy did he need that.
Manoah is a heck of a bulldog - probably the biggest one here since Halladay.
pooks137 - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#422164) #
No mention of Garcia being hurt on the broadcast.
I suspect Schneider and Walker panicked a bit and told Garcia to get loose after Aranda's HR to lead off the 7th, making it 2-1. The broadcast specifically showed an image of empty bullpen mounds before Manoah came out to start the inning.
Gameday shows a mound visit after Manoah proceeded to strike out Mejia for the first out. I suspect the decision was made somewhere around then to get Bass up and have Garcia sit down.
Manoah then walked Choi and got Siri to ground out before Bass was brought in.
The broadcast mentioned that the switch to Bass was likely made because the Rays had a run of four consecutive RHH approaching.
When Zach Pop couldn't find the strike zone at all to start off the 9th after replacing Romano up 7-2 and almost walked his second batter, the broadcast did mention that Garcia was still available to come in if Pop allowed 2 men aboard, though I don't think Garcia ever got up.
I believe it was during the afternoon broadcast as well that Buck mentioned that the coaches were aware that Garcia required more regular rest to be effective than your average reliever.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#422168) #
Romano was, according to the broadcasters, OK with being brought into the game in the 8th and then being taken out of the gamefor the 9th when the Jays added two runs in the bottom of the eighth. That's good.
Evidently, saves aren't everything. I hope the starters feel the same way about "wins".
jerjapan - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#422169) #
Its this younger generation of players Id guess- these guys see the advanced stats, they get it the way we didnt back in the Joe Carter era. look at them grabbing their ipads after ABs. Its fun watching this generational shift for me.
Man, September baseball. playoff races. Manoah and BB. Old man Verlander. And Aaron freaking Judge. Good time to be a fan.
85bluejay - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#422170) #
The team that ends up with the 3rd WC spot gets to play the winner of the weak central division in the 1st round (albeit on the road) and likely the Yankees in the 2nd round - quite appealing compared to the alternative - I wonder if teams are ruminating about this.
Aaron Freaking Judge
Yesterday's homer over the Green Monster looked more impressive than it actually was. Hit at just over 100 mph and went about 390 feet to straight-away left-field. A no-doubter, but nothing special.
But let's talk about putting his season in context. He has 9.0 bWAR and 9.7 fWAR. He's a good defender in right and a capable one in center, who is having the finest offensive season since Willie McCovey, 1969 (if we exclude the Bonds/McGwire seasons from the PED era) and is on pace to play 157 games. If you look at every player season with an OPS+ of 180 (Judge's is currently 206) and bWAR of 9 since 1947 (and you exclude the PED era): you get this list by WAR:
Yaz 1967, Mantle 1957, Musial 1948, Mays 1965, Mantle, 1956, Betts 2018, Mantle 1961 (did I mention how great Mickey was?), Rosen 1953, Bonds 1993, Trout 2018, Harper, 2015, Pujols 2009, Williams 1947, Mantle 1955, Pujols 2008, Reggie 1969, Cash 1961, Williams 1949, Bonds 1992, Judge 2022.
Judge will move up this list by the end of the season to near the middle. But what about quality of competition? Judge is having to face AL East pitchers 76 times in a fully integrated league. How much are they than league average? The best thing to do is to wait until the end of the season, but it's possible that when the math is all done that Judge's season will rank right there with a great Mantle year.
Interestingly, among the Blue Jays, Guardians, Rays and Mariners, the only one that has any kind of significant home/road split is Tampa. In their case, it's huge. I imagine that the Blue Jays would really, really like to avoid playing 3 games in Tampa, but otherwise they can deal. Can you imagine a series in Seattle with 25,000 British Columbians down there? Sort of like a subway series, I guess, but with an awfully long subway...
92-93 - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#422173) #
Thanks for the info pooks137. It seems weird that they would get Garcia up and then sit him back down without a change in the game situation.
The bullpen is fine for tonight, but they are going to need a bullpen day on Friday with no SP available.
Pearson's line in September is 3ip 1h 0r 0bb 2k. He has pitched only an inning on 3 and then 4 days rest.
It's great that players like Romano are putting winning and what's best for the team above their egos and their stats.
Unfortunately, it's unlikely the Jays negotiation teams give them any quarter later on during arbitration hearings when these same baseball card stats they sacrificed are determining their future remuneration.
Your concern over Garcia's disappearance is very astute. But to my memory the broadcast took note but was completely unconcerned.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#422176) #
I thought before this series started that if the Jays could take 3 out of 5 from the Rays and 2 out of 3 from the Orioles in the next series that they would be in good shape.
Did anyone see the stat shown on the broadcast last night that in the last 17 games at Roger's Center, the Jays have a team batting average of .199 ?
So, I ran a Stathead search for Bo Bichette to try to identify a comparable. I used shortstops for age 23-24 (age 21 and 22 are not fair to Bichette because of COVID factors although he performed at the same level) with PA>1200 and 115<OPS+<130. Bichette's is 124. I got 6 comps- Francisco Lindor, Ernie Banks, Travis Fryman, Derek Jeter, Cecil Travis and Joe Sewell. When I expanded it to OPS+ between 115 and 133, I got the same names plus Nomar Garciaparra and Vern Stephens.
It's an excellent group of comps with only Fryman not ending up as a star (and Fryman's performance at age 21-24 wasn't as good as Bichette's). The closest match was probably Ernie Banks. The raw W and K data look very different, but once you make adjustment for era (K rates were just a smidge under half of what they are today in Banks' time)- the W, K and HR look quite comparable. Banks was probably a little better with the glove, and by age 24, he was coming on.
mathesond - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#422178) #
Interesting! Not sure if we'll see Bo move to 1B in a few years, although BBRef lists him as just an inch shorter than Ernie.
Of course, with all those British Columbians in the stands, the Jays were humiliated in a 4 games series in Seattle earlier this year as Charlie Montoyo can attest
We know that arbitrators will consider saves, and will consider modern metrics like WPA and WAR (and I guess ERA+) in setting salaries. But do we know how they actually weigh things? So, if pitcher A has 35 saves and 2 WPA and 1 WAR and an ERA+ of 150, and pitcher B has 30 saves and 4 WPA and 1.5 WAR and an ERA+ of 155, who ends up with the higher salary? Jordan Romano leads the Blue Jays with 4.0 WPA and indeed is 3rd in the major leagues behind Jhoan Duran and Max Fried in this category. Among his direct competitors, he's ahead of Emmanuel Clase (3.34 WPA), Edwin Diaz (3.07) and so on. Over the last 2 years, Romano has the highest WPA in the majors (7.83) and it isn't close- Scherzer is next at 7.39 and then Devin Williams at 6.12. Using reliever ERA and WAR, Clase and quite a few others have better numbers.
What you ought to infer from this as an arbitrator is that Clase and Devin Williams have been a little better than Romano, but Romano has been used in the more important situations and against the better competition and has produced more valuable for this club. Are arbitrators capable of making that determination? Clase signed a 5 year contract for $20 million with club options for 2 more years before this year; so I guess we won't find out. Edwin Diaz is a free agent at the end of this year (have trumpeter, will travel), so we won't get info that way either.
You would think that arbitrators might be aware that players are sitting on their iPads during the game, and are well aware of modern metrics. We'll see.
*has produced more value for his club.
Paul D - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#422182) #
Judge looks likely to have the largest lead over second place in home runs since Babe Ruth in 1928
Incidentally, is there anything that prevents a team and a reliever from agreeing in advance of the season that arbitrators shall consider WPA, WAR and ERA+ and whatever else but not number of saves (or number of holds) in setting a salary? Similarly for starting pitchers, could teams and players not agree in advance that arbitrators shall consider IP and ERA+ and WAR, but not wins in setting a salary? I know that if I was in management, I'd pay a player a bonus on top if that was the arrangement- if we can agree on what is really important, we're ahead of the game.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#422184) #
Judge's offensive season is very comparable to McCovey's. Judge has an OPS of 1105, next highest in the league is Yordan Alvarez at 1000. McCovey's OPS was 1108; next highest in the league was Henry Aaron at 1003. Their OPS+ was 209 to 206, edge to McCovey.
Judge of course has considerably more defensive value.
Hodgie - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#422185) #
Thanks, Hodgie. Too bad he lost the perfect game in the 9th!
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#422187) #
Speaking of that July Seattle series:
I think we have enough sample data now (which, when analyzing the jobs managers do is murky because of so many variables) to conclude that John Schneider represents an upgrade over Montoyo, and quite possibly, is a very good manager.
In simple terms if you just look at the wins/losses, they were 3 games over .500 after that awful west coast road trip and Montoyo was let go. Under JS, they're 34-20 which is closer to the 95 win team many around the game thought the Jays were this season.
I love how he's utilized the bench since the deadline. He's struck, in my opinion, a perfect balance between playing the hot hand (Biggio's increased time comes to mind, among others), while properly allowing enough playing time for guys like Tapia, Merrifield, and Bradley Jr. to not completely crater. None of those three have played particularly well (although Bradley and Tapia certainly have had some opportune hits recently, and Merrifield had the huge knock yesterday in an important game in an important series) they've had enough value to keep the team in good shape.
I think the big improvement is the handling of the bullpen. Under Schneider, you can make the case each arm (with the exception of Richards, who was terrible early in the season, and actually improved until recently) in the 'pen has pitched up to their capabilities since the managerial change. I never got the sense Montoyo had a good feel for who could get outs on any given night, and it appears Schneider strikes an excellent balance between workload restrictions, feel for the game in front of him, and analytical data. I always thought John Gibbons' real skill as a bullpen whisperer was his ability to quickly play the hot hand, or conversely, cut bait and be able to yank a pitcher before they caused any major damage. I think a fellow former catcher like Schneider has that ability too.
What a fun September it's been.
Mathesond, as you probably know, Ernie moved to first because of his knees. Bo Bichette does not have a great arm and is not exceptionally quick, but is reasonably athletic. He has definitely lost a little speed already. If he has to move when he's about 30, I would anticipate that it would be to left-field and then maybe later to DH. Or possibly to second base as Julio Franco did. Health permitting.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#422189) #
Mathesond, as you probably know, Ernie moved to first because of his knees.
He actually hurt his knee playing left field in 1961, banging it on the brick wall in Candelstick. What was he doing in left field? The Cubs just had to take a look at Jerry Kindall (lifetime - .213/.266/.327) at shortstop. Banks - who had never played outfield in his life - played in LF for about a month, spent a week at first base, finished the season at shortstop and moved permanently to first base the next year.
Who was the manager behind this nonsense? No one. The Cubs didn't have a manager that season - it was the legendary College of Coaches.
[Schneider's] struck, in my opinion, a perfect balance between playing the hot hand (Biggio's increased time comes to mind, among others)
Biggio's playing time has actually decreased since the managerial change. He came back on 26 May, and started 32 of the next 45 games, making 125 PApps. Then Montoyo was dismissed. Since the change, Biggio has started 27 of 54 games and made 107 PApps.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#422191) #
I think people tend to make up narratives about results. Not necessarily what happened. Like you can say bullpen moves make more sense and work out now. But the bullpen is also better now with Bass and having Pop as the bottom end instead of Thornton.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#422192) #
I think people tend to make up narratives about results.
This. In the end, we are more rationalizing than rational.
pooks137 - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#422193) #
My comment about Romano not getting the save and future arbitration was mostly cynical and tongue-in-cheek.
My overarching point however is that it's unfair to ask players "not to care" about their personal stats and ask them to be altruistic about sappy narratives like winning and teamwork when in the end their future pay is solely based on individual stats and performance.
If players are expected to sacrifice personal finances for the greater good, then there should be some corresponding guarantees that the team won't turn around in the offseason to play hardball with their agents when their arb figures are a few hundred k apart or have their contract teams argue in bad faith about these same stats to try to shave their earnings down if it reaches a hearing.
AFAIK, individual teams don't control what traditional or sabermetric stats arbitrators consider to award salaries in hearings. As these decisions affect players leaguewide, assuredly these parameters are set by the league office with input from the MLBPA via the CBA.
Of course, nothing is stopping the Jays from going outside this framework to negotiate their own contracts based on any metrics they choose with players' agents before they actually get to an arbitration hearing.
Apparently, Banks actually hurt his knee in the Army in the early 50s and it flared when he struck it against a brick wall while playing LF. While it was a poor idea to have him in the outfield, these things often do happen to players by the time they reach 30- whether it's chasing after a popup or foul ball or colliding with another player.
85bluejay - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#422195) #
After today's game against San Diego, the Mariners do not play a game against a team with a winning record for the rest of the season and I think that makes them the favourite to win the top WC spot - Increasingly, I'm thinking the Jays are better off with the #3 WC spot and avoiding the possibility of playing Seattle/Tampa and Houston in the first two rounds of the playoffs - give players adequate rest especially the pitching staff and set up for the postseason.
As far as I know the rules in the collective agreement do not require arbitrators to look at saves, wins or any other traditional statistic, or any modern statistic either.
While it was a poor idea to have him in the outfield
No kidding. Has that ever worked - moving a player to a position he's never played before in mid-season? I'm sure it has - the law of Large Numbers says it must have, probably many times - but it's still an odd thing to do with your best player.
I was always under the impression that arbitration hearings usually worked by comparing players to each other - player with similar experience and similar accomplishment gets paid this much, this guy should get paid so much. Abitrators may or may not be baseball fans. Some may be familiar with WAR and FIP and others may not know what the hell you're talking about.
I claim no expertise on current arbitration protocols. I haven't really been paying attention since the Elias ranking A/B FA compensation days and MLB changing the rules after Anthopoulos traded for Miguel Olivo to essentially buy/scam a draft pick.
But surely the statistical decision criteria must be standardized leaguewide?
The statistics considered and how they are weighted directly impact pre-FA individual financial compensation, with wide-reaching ripple effects on non-tender decisions, pre-arb superstar extensions, free agent compensation for non-superstars, etc.
The MLBPA has a huge interest in having input into how this sausage is made. I'd be shocked if the statistical criteria wasn't somehow collectively bargained.
A good thing about Aaron Judge's magnificent season is that the Yankees will have to pay up to retain him.
Not as far as I can tell. The rule is very open-ended and basically directs arbitrators to look at contributions of players to the team and to use salaries of comparable players with the same service time (although they can look at players with one year more or one year less service time and in exceptional circumstances others). They can look at other things, like attendance, success of the team, awards and so on.
I don't see why players and teams cannot agree in advance of the year what factors are relevant if the matter goes to arbitration. And that way, players will know if they are placed in a high leverage non-save situation rather than a save situation, it's not an effort to reduce their salary but rather it is recognition that they are good...
Biggio at first, Tapia in left and JBJ in right today, with Jansen catching and Kirk and Hernandez getting the day off. Rasmussen has no discernible platoon splits, but both Kirk and Hernandez had looked like they could use a day off. Stripling has pitched very well this year with Jansen behind the plate, but not so much last year. He's pitched pretty well with Kirk both years. A wash, if you ask me. I'll say Schneider just wants to give Kirk and Hernandez a rest.
"Biggio's playing time has actually decreased since the managerial change. He came back on 26 May, and started 32 of the next 45 games, making 125 PApps. Then Montoyo was dismissed. Since the change, Biggio has started 27 of 54 games and made 107 PApps."
I suppose I should amend that to "Schneider has found a better way to utilize Cavan Biggio." It still fits with my original point that Schneider's use of the bench is better.
And to the other points about crafting narrative: I'm not trying to craft a narrative at all. The team has played better under the current manager. The bullpen (yes they added Bass, who has undoubtedly contributed) was often terrible for long stretches under Montoyo. It's been rock solid under the current manager. Again, it's not narrative to suggest one guy is simply better at pushing the buttons, pulling the levers, whatever.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#422205) #
Hello...you play to win the game!
The last time the Jays went to Cleveland for a playoff series they scored 1 run in 2 games. It's a terrible idea to do anything but put your best forward and keep trying to win games. The Yankees were an extremely dangerous team when they were healthy.
Good looking lineup tonight. Hernandez definitely looks like he could use some rest, especially since he fouled that ball off his lower half.
I'm not claiming any special knowledge, but how can some MLBTradeRumours contributors create near-perfect analytic models predicting arbitration awards if individual arbiters are given leeway to make award decisions based independently on whatever statistics they deem relevant?
They're not near perfect, pooks. The way it works is the arbitrator has to choose management's number or the player's number. Until you see the numbers, guessing the award first amounts to guessing what the two parties will put in and that's highly unpredictable. Afterwards, they may or may not settle, but if they don't, predicting the award is just about picking one of two numbers.
Word. Playing 3 games in Cleveland is better than playing 3 games in Tampa, but you just can't control that. If you play to lose, the O's may catch you. Play to win, and who knows, maybe they can catch the Yankees and even if not, you're in the right frame of mind for the playoffs.
Play to win the world series - you can lose the battle if it helps you win the war.
I suppose I should amend that to "Schneider has found a better way to utilize Cavan Biggio."
Except that in those games with Montoyo making out the lineup, Biggio hit .252/.379/.427 and since Schneider took over he's hitting .217/.318/.435, which is a good reason not to play him as much, I suppose.
The way it works is the arbitrator has to choose management's number or the player's number.
And each side will present an argument for their number, usually based on performance and comparable players. If such a case were to happen, the Blue Jays might emphasize Gausman's ERA and W-L record; Gausman's camp would certainly point to his FIP and K-W ratios and stuff like that (which might require explaining what these things mean.)
Gerry - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#422213) #
I am fascinated by Aaron Judge and his contract situation. He did not accept a contract offer from the Yankees in the off-season so the question in my mind is, was the Yankees offer too small, or does Judge want to play somewhere else?
I am not aware that Judge has said anything about his long term plans. He is a west coast guy and sometimes guys like to get closer to home.
It would be interesting if Judge opted for the west coast.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#422214) #
Except that, since returning from the DL, Biggio has been one of the team's better hitters and reducing his playing time has been sub optimal. Frankly, I continue to scratch my head at the way the team decides who, when and how to rest its best regulars. I fully support the idea that Kirk and Hernandez need a day off but why wouldn't you spread those days off over two games and not leave your line-up one bat short? Weird. This isn't a recent development either - this isn't Schneider vs. Montoyo, they both did this. I'm not arguing for less frequent rest for the regulars - just more thoughtful ways of balancing that rest while putting out the best line up possible more often.
grjas - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#422215) #
He is a west coast guy and sometimes guys like to get closer to home.
Imagine if he went to the Angels. What a murderer's row. They'd probably still find a way to lose.
Except that, since returning from the DL, Biggio has been one of the team's better hitters and reducing his playing time has been sub optimal.
Well, two tings are definitely true. He hasn't played as much since Schneider took over (starting 50% of the time as opposed to 71% of the time; and he hasn't hit as well since Schneider took over (.753 OPS since the change, .806 before.) But not a big drop, and the old chicken-egg question applies (is he hitting less because he's playing less or is he playing less because he's hitting less?)
I always suspect, that even when they know better, managers still have trouble with that .220 BAVG. Biggio's a better hitter at .220 than Espinal at .270, but even so...
Judge turned down 7/213.5MM. Maybe he heads out west to the Giants, but the boss move would be for Steve Cohen to step in and bring him across town to Queens.
Cleveland has won 8 of their last 9 games. Whichever team comes out of the AL Central will likely have been playing very good baseball.
.753 is still better than most of his line-up during that period:)
I agree that the AVG is a an optical (rather than an actual) problem. Its also true that Schneider doesn't appear to like Biggio the OF. Biggio isn't a great OF but I think part of the problem is that Tapia looks like he should be a good OF. He's toolsy. In reality, there's very little to choose between the two defensively but it looks like there should be.
Biggio isn't a great OF
Of course not! Why would he be! He's hardly ever played there! A few more reps and he'll probably be perfectly fine (probably pretty good, probably better than Tapia) but it's obviously hard to master any position when you're playing a bunch of them.
Tapia's not a natural outfielder either, but he throws left-handed so he's stuck.
The odd thing is that because of all the shifting the Jays do (and the number of RHP they have), it is particularly important to have a right-hand thrower in left-field. With Chapman playing at shortstop and the OF shifted over, a reasonable hit ground ball in the 5-6 hole regularly becomes a double with a left-handed thrower there, as he has to field and turn around to throw. Gurriel cuts off a lot of them and holds the runner. Biggio wouldn't do as well as Gurriel but better than Tapia.
The Jays don't really need a back-up right-fielder this year, because Springer can play there to give Hernandez a day off here and there.
Speaking of needing reps in the OF, Moreno started doing drills out in CF and it's a great idea both for the rest of this season and next year. You'd have to go back to 2016 to find a year where they basically used just 2 catchers. There are always plenty of ABs to go around (especially when Kirk is an above average DH), and there shouldn't be any motive to force a trade of a catcher. They've all had their injuries the last few years.
That's very good news. I wondered if the club would try Moreno in CF. He was a shortstop, and many shortstop have made that move.
Gabe Marino, starting CF for the 2023 Jays - now that would be a sexy solution to a number of issues for the Jays.
That's what I was talking about. Biggio would have been able to hold Margot on that one, I think.
a reasonable hit ground ball in the 5-6 hole regularly becomes a double with a left-handed thrower there
I'd love to see the data on the cost/benefit of the Jays' aggressive OF shifting. Purely subjectively it has felt like a net negative but, obviously, the times its caused issues jump out at you more than the times it helps.
Ahead of your time, perhaps. By half an hour!
Buck had 56 sac hits in his career. Only five active players have more, led by Clayton Kershaw with 110. The only position players with more than 56 are Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.
Rasmussen particularly has had a very generous strike zone.
Praise where praise due - that was a very good AB by Tapia.
Danny Jansen is a very interesting player to decide what to pay and what to do with going forward. That he isn't a FA until 2025 makes him, at worst, a very valuable trade chit. I'm generally a believer in his last 250 ABs though, and that makes him a very valuable player to keep. That's what makes Moreno so interesting in CF.
That was really pretty from JBJ. Didn't get the guy at second, but it didn't look like he had any kind of shot from that angle.
Eephus - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#422233) #
Yeah… the fact that Bradley Jr. made that close was ridiculous. Incredible toss.
And another nice catch to end the inning.
That was really pretty from JBJ.
Don't much like the bat, but he can sure play the outfield. There was no way that play at second should have been close.
And Stripling has been great. So much fun to watch.
This poor ump bet on the Rays. Atrocious strike zone.
Attaboy Tapia, now steal second.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#422237) #
Jansen now leads the team in SLG.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#422238) #
Yesterday's 2-game total attendance was 48,600. But how many $ 1 loonie hot dogs?
Schneider Stripling Springer Cimber Zimmer!
While LH batters often struggle with LH pitchers, both Tapia and Biggio have practically no platoon split at all. But this team is so loaded with RH batters that they hardly ever bat against a southpaw anymore.
That's the first mental error I can remember Espinal making.
No pinch runner for Springer here? Hopefully that's a good sign.
Siri for Tampa Bay forgot how many were out yesterday after he caught a ball in CF. It's like everybody's so locked in, they're missing the blindingly obvious stuff.
If you're going to yank Springer for defense then just let Zimmer run the bases instead. Springer isn't worried about his arbitration figure.
It was the type of strike zone that suited a pitcher like Rasmussen, who works the two sides of the zone, far more than it suited Stripling, who works the top and the bottom. Stripling's pitching so well these days, it didn't matter.
There were 2-3+ called strikes against the Jays below the zone too.
Way to get the job done Garcia. Give Bass and/or Mazya the 9th.
That was a serious effort from Tapia. More credit where due.
I agree that Zimmer should have pinch-run for Springer, but the key thing is defence. His elbow was barking, and he doesn't need to make any more throws than necessary.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#422249) #
Big Money Gausman could really stomp on se devil Ray necks tomorrow.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#422250) #
With his improved slider, Bass has become a very good reliever. He's had an excellent season. Underrated pickup by Atkins.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#422251) #
Woohoo! Guaranteed to finish this series ahead of the Rays with 3 of 4 so far, lets hope for 4 of 5 after tomorrow. Big statement series. 1 full game ahead of Seattle, 1 1/2 ahead of the Rays.
So, who should be the #3 starter for the wild card series? Stripling or Berrios? It is becoming a serious question now. The Jays have a very solid 4 man rotation right now. 5th slot...well...thank goodness that won't matter in the playoffs beyond who is in the pen. The AL East will be tough to win, but in 2nd so all they need is for the Yankees to slip up again and who knows?
That was a totally satisfying win. They've been pretty good foe a while but they may be ready to take it up a gear. Good time for it.
Stripling.
It's still Berrios. With 3 games in 3 nights you want Stripling in the bullpen in case somebody needs to get yanked early. It would be hard to ask Berrios to do something he's never done. The two times Berrios has gotten hit in his last 13 starts you would've pulled him before things got out of hand.
I agree 92-93 provided Berrios continues his recent form.
Stripling's copying Judge with a big jump in his walk year. Will be interesting to see how the Jays approach him, and what sort of contract he can lock in after what could simply be a one-off exceptional career year.
Disagree. In a short series you go with your three best starters. Right now those are Manoah, Gausman, Stripling. The Jays have plenty of bullpen depth to deal with a variety of scenarios.
Stripling has taken his game to the next level (at least for now) and long man out of the bullpen just isn't that high a priority in the postseason.
Berrios can be very good but do you want to take the chance that he'll be that version in a high-stakes, potentially season-ending game in the playoffs?
I'd consider the left/right tilt of the opponent in making the decision. It would probably also be important how much the pen has been used in Games 1 and 2. Something to think about in a week or 10 days.
Some of you may recall that after the 2015 season, I went crawling through the record to discover if we had just seen Edwin Encarnacion the preceding August post the best month by a Jays hitter in franchise history. Edwin had hit .407/.460/.919 (1.379) that August, which is pretty darn good. It turned out that it had been surpassed just once - Otto Velez, in the franchise's very first month, had hit .442/.531/.865 (1.397) in April 1977. Encarnacion did have 100 PApps to Velez's 64, but I was using 60 as my cutoff.
In the process, I identified 147 separate months when a Jays hitter had an OPS better than 1.000 for the month. We're now up to 170 such months, and Bo Bichette doesn't have any of them. (Gurriel has three, Vlad and Teoscar have two, Chapman, Jansen, and Kirk have one.) But now Bichette's hitting .483/.500/1.000 so far this September. He's got more hits, HRs, and RBIs than Velez had in April 1977 (they've now had an identical number of PApps.) There's a very long way to go, of course.
That being said, it's situational. There's only one day off between the season and WC Game 1, and that last series @ Baltimore could easily have implications. With the two off days before the end of the season there are all sorts of possibilities for which starters pitch those games against Baltimore. If they're tied 1-1 in the WC with a fresh-ish bullpen and both Stripling and Berrios are available that changes the equation.
Estrada turned out to be the right choice to start in the playoffs.
I've probably put the jinx on Bichette but good now, haven't I? Surely Velez's record will stand until the End of Time, a marker hung up there in the very month of the franchise's existence, for generations of Blue Jays to aim at but fall short...
Stripling made a pretty large leap in 2021, when he made whatever adjustment it was he made in mid-May. From there until he was injured in August, he went 5-3, 3.29 in 14 outings - and those numbers were spoiled by two ugly losses sandwiched around the All-Star Break, when he gave up 10 runs in 4 innings. He was pretty much this guy already. And he's been better than Gausman, never mind Berrios.
The Jays are 11-2 in Berrios' last 13 starts.
Who pitches in the Wild Card will be a product of who pitches @ Baltimore.
You can parse the situation and maybe it could favour Berrios in some circumstances. But there is a risk of overthinking it. Stripling has clearly been the superior pitcher this season.
Stripling might be more reliable out of the pen than Berrios would be in case one of the SP gets blown up early.
Currently I'd lean towards Stripling but that could change by playoff time - Anyways, I don't expect the Jays to send their big money starter to the pen and Stripling does have quality BP experience.
Maybe. It's a valid point. But if you're in a winner-take-all game 3, who do you feel better about as your SP, Berrios or Stripling? I'm going with the latter, although I'm hoping that Berrios does well over the next couple of weeks and makes the decision that much harder.
Berrios is on a pretty good run. 2.93era and over 6ip per start the last 5 starts.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, September 14 2022 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#422268) #
When I count out the starts, keeping everyone on 5 days, Stripling is lined up to pitch the last day of the season. Gausman would start game 1 on 6 days(5 rest), and Manoah lines up to pitch sat on regular rest. Berrios lines up to pitch game 1 on regular rest. Game 3 would be 2 additional days of rest.
There's obviously no question if you need to win one game and the bullpen is fresh with Manoah (and Gausman?) down that you start Stripling. That theoretical is completely implausible, though.
Let's hope for the Yankees sweep and a comeback to make this all moot!
The other interesting call will be between an emergency arm or extra body on the bench. If fully healthy I would expect them to carry a bench of Biggio, Tapia, Bradley, Zimmer, and Merrifield. The bullpen would be Stripling, Romano, Garcia, Bass, Mayza, Cimber, Phelps, Merryweather. That would leave a decision between Richards/Pop or Moreno.
One question to ponder is how well Stripling would transition back to a bullpen role. I suppose if anyone can do it, he can, but he has been thriving in a regular rotation spot for a while now. Shifting back into reliever mode could lead to some turbulence as he makes the adjustment.
I guess the thing I have trouble wrapping my head around in the Berrios versus Stripling debate, is the notion that you should save your better pitcher (Stripling) to bail out your worse one (Berrios) in case he struggles. Well, why not just start the better one then?
I know it's not quite that simple, but it sort of is.
Oh, and in a wild card game three, you're not limited to your "fresh" bullpen arms. It's all hands on deck, winner take all.
If the Jays make it to the 2nd round, I'm strongly in favour of a 4 man rotation.
Stripling has been pretty candid about what has brought about the leap. In his words, his CV (formerly his reliable off speed pitch) sucked and he started throwing his CU much more. The more he threw it, the better the CU got. But the real leap was that he started throwing the CU to RHH (something he had never done before) this year with great success. His CU usage is around 30% now and he has said he thinks he can throw it more. He's morphed into an interesting version of Marcum. I think what he's doing is sustainable (maybe not to this degree) and I really hope that they are able to resign him. Doyle Alexander, Estrada and Marcum were some of my favourite Jay pitchers and Stripling has joined the list.
Jonny German - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#422276) #
Going back to the discussion of the folly of moving a player to a new position mid-season...
Daulton Varsho is a current almost-example of this. He'd played just 4 minor league games in the outfield when Arizona called him up in 2020, and after 2-1/2 years of splitting time between catcher and outfield they've decided he's a full time outfielder. Baseball Savant has him in the 99th percentile for Outs Above Average this year.
This is also an interesting data point with regards to Gabe Moreno, Centre Fielder. And for the category of Where could the Jays acquire a good lefty-hitting outfielder?
bpoz - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#422277) #
Thanks Nigel for the Stripling comparison. I have always hoped for another Marcum that is home grown.
Doyle pitched a long time in the 4 man rotation era. I think he was a power pitcher early in his career.
Marcum was drafted in 2003 (Richardi) and pitched 8 ML innings in 2005. Then took off. So he moved fast.
Estrada & Stripling were swing men that developed into solid SPs. Estrada did not go back to being a swing man, so I don't expect Stripling to either.
grjas - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#422278) #
The advantage of keeping Stripling at least notionally in the pen is if Manoah or Gausman faultered which they do on occasion. So they may decide not to announce starter 3 until after game 2.
Now hopefully they win games 1 and 2 and it doesn't matter.
Nigel - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#422279) #
An interesting article in the Athletic today. Apparently, pitchers have found a new sticky solution that isn't being detected and league wide spin rates are back to where they were before the huge drop after the new rules were introduced last year. It would help explain some improved pitcher performances (ie Merryweather) who were negatively impacted by the rule change.
scottt - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#422280) #
The Expos started Gary Carter in the outfield.
It's not a new concept
Stripling should have no problem working out of the bullpen.
He's used to it. He's not a max effort guy.
It all comes down to mental/emotional control.
He's worse game last year came when he found out the team was moving to Toronto and his family when back to Texas.
It's worth taking note that there was no game 3 in 2020.
Magpie - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#422282) #
Here is the article on the return of spin (and sticky stuff?) that Nigel was referring to. Money quote:
there are pitchers with solutions on their pants that help dissolve sticky stuff before the hand inspections.
Something to watch for, if we ever get a nice shot of a pitcher in the time between he throws his last pitch and goes to meet the umpire for the hand inspection.
Well, yeah. He was blocked by Barry Foote behind the plate. Seriously! Foote had a very nice season as a 22 year old rookie in 1974, and Carter arrived the next year. Foote was lousy in 1975, but Carter was bad in 1976, so he didn't really seize the job until 1977.
A generation earlier, the Yankees finally integrated their team with a 26 year old catcher named Elston Howard. The Yankees already had a pretty good catcher, and he'd been the league's MVP the year before. Howard played LF and a little 1B as he waited for Yogi to get old (at which point, they moved Berra to LF.)
But the real obvious parallel to Moreno (if they do indeed move him out from behind the plate) would be Craig Biggio. The Astros didn't move Biggio because of his shortcomings at the position - but they thought he'd lose his speed if he stayed there. They also thought he'd probably get hurt if he stayed there, crushed in some home plate collision. Biggio was listed at 5-11, 185; Moreno at 5-11, 195. The collisions have largely been legislated away, but accidents will happen.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#422285) #
The efforts to make Carlos Delgado a left-fielder did not help his offence. But the mid-career switch was just what Brian Downing needed.
Had a quick peek at Carlos Delgado's career. He's intertwined in my mind with Pedro Martinez- they had some memorable confrontations and Carlos often came out on top (he hit .254/..368/.524 in 76 PAs). Anyways, it was pretty clear that Pedro Martinez was the best player in baseball in 1999-2000 (both years). And somehow he did not win an MVP. Here was more dominant than any of the pitchers who did. I wonder why that was- perhaps the voters were unable to adjust for context, not realizing how astounding Pedro's ERA and K numbers were given the offensive environment- you would have thought that 23-4 W/L record wouldn't have disqualified him. I mean Dennis Eckersley won the MVP in 1992, and he probably wasn't one of the 10 best players in the league.
But the mid-career switch was just what Brian Downing needed.
Dale Murphy, too. (Did Murphy develop the yips throwing the ball back to the pitcher?)
Yes, the parallel to Moreno would be Biggio. With Cavan sitting next to Moreno in the dugout, it's hard not to make the connection! Biggio, of course, went 2-4-8. I also think of the all the players who went 6-8 from Yount to Adam Jones to Upton to Billy Hamilton. I can't think of anyone who went 6-2-8, but 6-2 conversions are unusual to begin with although I am sure that there are many that I don't know about at age 17. Usually players with the speed to be a shortstop aren't moved behind the plate.
A Craig Biggio story that I had not heard before. He was playing a summer league game before college, when a lightning strike killed a teammate and knocked him unconscious. He grew up fast after that.
Biggio moved to CF because they'd signed Jeff Kent, and went back to 2B when Kent moved on.
Moving Biggio to 2B worked out unbelievably well for the Astros - it's simply not something that's happened very often. Second base? Biggio apparently spent the entire winter preparing, learning to field ground balls using a piece of foam instead of a glove - if he didn't do it right, it would hurt like the devil.
Just one thing went wrong. The Astros needed a catcher, so they traded an outfield prospect to Cleveland for a catching prospect. The catcher was Eddie Taubensee. And the outfielder was Kenny Lofton. This was a trade that made perfect sense in the moment! Taubensee was two years younger, he'd had a better year in the minors (and in his first look at the majors), and the Astros already had Steve Finley in CF (whose a pretty fair comp for Lofton himself.) Can't win 'em all.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#422290) #
"Dennis Eckersley won the MVP in 1992"
That was the era when fans and the media paid a lot of attention to a closer's save totals -- the gaudier, the better. Eckersley had 51 saves that year.
Incidentally, does anyone remember (without looking it up) who holds the MLB record for most saves in a single season?
C to LF switches are rare but not unheard of. C to CF switches are a whole other level of rarity. That's what makes them so interesting. Jason Wertb is another recent successful example. I'm all for trying Moreno there.
92-93 - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#422292) #
McClanahan is another Rays SP with reverse splits, though his are less pronounced. Merrifield should be in the lineup anyway, but it might a good day to give Springer the full game off. He certainly looked like he could use it yesterday.
it was pretty clear that Pedro Martinez was the best player in baseball in 1999-2000 (both years).
He actually got more first place votes than the MVP (Ivan Rodriguez) did, which suggests that there were probably some writers who left him off the ballot entirely because he was a pitcher.
He didn't get a single first place vote in 2000, and I think a narrative took hold. Oakland was behind a couple of teams and three games shy of the Wild Card, and then they closed the season by going 45-11. And Jason Giambi, already having a good year, went utterly berserk over those two months - .377/.514/.731 with 14 HR and 44 RBI in 52 games.
My gosh, the offensive numbers in 1999 were just insane. Boston had a shortstop who hit .357/.418/.603 and no one thought he was the MVP. And he wasn't, not even close.
Eddie Taubensee! I had totally forgotten the Lofton trade until you mentioned- at the time, I was aware he was relatively "old" for a prospect. He had got a cup of coffee at age 24, and then played his first full season in his age 25 season (although it should be noted that with a May 31 birthday, he was 24 on Opening Day). Anyways, there are relatively few position players who come up at that age who have Hall of Fame quality careers. Lofton is one (Wade Boggs and Edgar Martinez are the two others that come mind; it's hard to think of a comparable position player before 1980). Lofton's best year (1994) started late because of the lockout and he was probably the best player in the league (ahead of prime Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey Jr.). And he played to age 40 and was still a good player when he retired.
Turning to today's game. McLanahan is likely to be on a pitch count. It's always a good day to swing at strikes and not at balls- today is certainly no exception.
And yes, I agree with 92-93 that Springer could use the day off. It's tricky because Merrifield hasn't played a lot of CF since 2019 and Gausman does give up a lot of hard balls between RCF and LCF. Merrifield is actually ideally suited to CF; he runs very well and his arm is weak for RF. HIs numbers in CF are pretty good across the board.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#422296) #
" It's always a good day to swing at strikes and not at balls"
But what to do when the balls are called strikes? I don't know what the umpire efficiency chart showed from last night but there seemed to be a lot of pitches off the plate to right-handed hitters called strikes.
Eddie Taubensee!
It took him a couple of years to start hitting - he was 22, a rookie catcher, in the Astrodome - and Lofton was an instant success in Cleveland. The Astros were so embarrassed that they simply gave Taubensee away to the Reds, where Davey Johnson discovered that while he was actually a pretty good hitter for a catcher - he was also a pretty bad catcher.
Sounds like a good day to have Merrifield and Bradley in the OF.
Hopefully Gausman gives them 6+ strong today. Garcia, Cimber, and Bass are all down barring emergency, and tomorrow is a bullpen day.
Hodgie - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#422300) #
Lance Barret's strike zone was in fact, garbage.
Matthew Ross from TSN tried fat-shaming Kirk today, it did not end well for him. Manoah is a beauty.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#422303) #
That doesn't happen very often at home. Good on the Jays for overcoming it.
When Rasmussen groused about being taken out of the game, I imagined Cash thinking "you've given up 4 runs in 4 innings with extremely favorable umpiring and you're complaining..."
Manoah is right, of course. It's one of the great things about baseball- there is no one way to look and no one way to go about the game. You can look like Marcus Stroman or Mark Buehrle or Roy Halladay or Alek Manoah and be good at it. You can look like Alejandro Kirk or Jose Altuve or Ichiro Suzuki or Aaron Judge and be good at it.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#422305) #
Seeing if Moreno can handle CF is a great idea. I'm not sure there is a high probability of that working out, who knows, but hopefully they give it a legitimate chance (give him a lot of reps in the winter/spring). CF is a big organizational hole right now behind Springer who likely doesn't have long left in that position. If Moreno can work out there defensively, combined with having at least two more years of the Kirk/Jansen tandem, then it would be a great way to fill holes internally.
Glevin - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#422306) #
The Jays need to fire their replay guy. They are just constantly making terrible challenges.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#422307) #
Was the pitch called ball four to Paredes actually a strike? (It looked that way on Gameday.) If so, it really changed the complexion of that inning.
The umpire isn't exactly evening up for yesterday. Gausman's 3-2 was a strike, and it cost the Jays a run (and now four after Diaz' homer as I type this).
krose - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#422309) #
Yup. Umps 4 Jays 0.
Congratulations, umps. Maybe they are mad about failing to sway the outcome of yesterday's game.
It wasn't a terrible challenge, just a bad one (the call wasn't confirmed; it merely stood) And yes, there have been plenty of bad challenges and terrible ones.
"It wasn't a terrible challenge, just a bad one (the call wasn't confirmed; it merely stood) And yes, there have been plenty of bad challenges and terrible ones."
To me it was terrible because there was no way it was going to get overturned. You can't challenge unless you think there's a decent chance the call was going to get overturned. There was no angle where he looked out so why challenge? Hope that the umpires make a bad call? Especially in the second inning which means Jays won't have opportunity to challenge later if they need.
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#422313) #
Cash plays for just a second run with a stupid first pitch bunt. And gets rewarded with a 2-out 3r HR. Better lucky than good.
And I've whined about this before, but it feels like Gausman has had more than a 1/5th share of final games of a series. And doesn't perform as well in them. (Magpie? Want a tiny project?). Another frustrating example. Hopefully McClanahan isn't in long and Jays bats get back in this one.
Gerry - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#422314) #
Hey Moreno, good news, you are finally getting a start.
Bad news, its against McClanahan.
We don't have all the angles and Sportsnet didn't show things slowed to a pace where you can tell like they may be able to do in the replay room. Sportsnet usually does that on plays at the plate and at first base, but not at third.
uglyone - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#422316) #
I'll check after this game is in the books to confirm but I kinda feel like Berrios might have been better the last month or so than Gausman has.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#422317) #
Bobby Thigpen used to own the saves record, until K-Rod.
A need-to-win scenario in game 162 may well determine the playoff rotation.
"I kinda feel like Berrios might have been better the last month or so than Gausman has"
Might depend on what stats you look at, ERA versus xFIP, etc.
That one blown call fundamentally changed the course of this game. Infuriating.
Nigel - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#422320) #
Does someone need to remind the Jays that this isn't a "get away day"? Sure feels like they have the bus parked outside the stadium warming up.
Hard to say too much negative toward the Jays. Sure, there have been some early count outs. But McClanahan has just been fantastic. No one is hitting him today. Three opposite field singles is all. Sure, the 2nd inning was ump-induced frustration. Hopefully Jays get to the Rays pen. Cause McClanahan isn't giving it up today.
Magpie - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#422322) #
Magpie? Want a tiny project?
Later! After this game, I'll be binging Roger Federer videos. My grief is immense!
Oh I'm not really being too critical. I understand the quality of the opposition. It's just that with an ace returning from the IL (and pitching this well) grinding his pitch count should be the strategy of the day.
Buck's a little young to remember Chico Carrasquel, who last played in 1959. HI believe he was the first Latino to start an All-Star Game, in 1951.
it feels like Gausman has had more than a 1/5th share of final games of a series.
I had to find out. Gausman has indeed finished a series more often than the others: it's Gausman (12) Manoah (9) Stripling (8), Berrios (6), Kikuchi (6), and one each for Ryu, Castillo, White, and Richards.
So as you might expect from that, it's Berrios (12) and Kikuchi (9) who start the first game of a series most often, followed by Stripling (7), Gausman (7), Manoah (6) and various guys once.
ah love me a good Tapia pinch hit to get the rally started off right.
It might have been better if they gave Springer an off-day and had Danny Jansen DHing. Springer just doesn't look right and a full day off or two wouldn't hurt.
Thanks, Magpie, I knew you'd come through. Glad my gut was right. But it's only half right so far. Might you have his ERA and W/L breakdown for last game vs other?
jerjapan - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#422330) #
Heck of a throw by Moreno. Move this kid off catcher?
That said, if he could add a second position, cf, 3B, whatever, I can see the team carrying all three catchers next year. They love their flexibility
It's 8-0 in the 9th on getaway day. The count is 3-2 and Phelps' pitch is actually a strike but could be called a ball in most situations. But in this one? Boy. The umpire's union must not be happy with Canada's COVID policies or the Blue Jay uniform colours or something.
Zimmertime
...and the livin' is easy.
92-93 - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#422334) #
Glevin, can you recall any times this year where the Jays couldn't challenge a clearly incorrect call because they had wasted their challenge previously?
grjas - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#422335) #
Sheesh. With Gausman scuffling, Richards and Kikuchi unpitchable and white erratic, I certainly wouldn't lock Stripling in as game 3 starter in the playoffs till I see how the first two games go.
There was one occasion I remember thinking that, 92-93, but damned if I remember the circumstances.
I do however remember Tony Kubek talking about Chico Carrasquel on the Game of the Week quite a few times. Cue Glory Days.
There was a play a few weeks ago where Schneider ignored Vladdy and made a bad challenge and it hurt them, but if nothing instantly pops to mind maybe the video challenge team is fine. It's not like the call on the field today was confirmed. You might even suggest that the teams with higher success on their challenges aren't being aggressive enough.
Guerrero was really lumbering after the last ground ball he hit this afternoon. He looked hurt.
tercet - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#422338) #
Groshans hit a hr tonight off of Syndergaard, in his 2nd game with the Marlins.
Might you have his ERA and W/L breakdown for last game vs other?
It's ugly - 3-7, 4.71. And the first five of those 12 starts were each outstanding (3-2, 1.99) so it's what's been happening since the beginning of June that's been especially awful. Seven starts, and six of them were poor (he had a six inning shutout no-decision mixed in among them. But overall it's 0-5, 7.29)
And the pitchers are now 4-12, 5.82 when Moreno is catching.
There was a play a few weeks ago where Schneider ignored Vladdy
Wasn't that Montoyo's last game, against the Phillies? Vlad missed first base with his foot, knew he missed it, and they challenged anyway?
I noticed that the pitchers have been struggling with Moreno catching. They definitely do not sem as comfortable and that isn't good.
Vladdy definitely lumbered down to first base on the last ground ball. He sometimes will lumber when not running out a ground ball properly, but this was one step beyond. Or one step short of a routine lumber.
Roger Lajoie just explained the non-error on Teo on 590. "You can never assume somebody is going to throw somebody out from the outfield, and you do not call mental errors". There you have it. A "stupid, bone-headed play" is not an error. He received a call from MLB's monitors between innings and they told him to re-watch the play with the right camera angle. He watched it 7-8x and determined he simply couldn't call an error on that play.
I cannot more strenuously object to that line of thinking on the non-error call. If you watch the play from the camera behind home plate, Hernandez got to the ball when Arozarena was still about 8-10 feet from 3B. Arozarena then slowed as he got to 3rd - he almost stopped. Hernandez is slowing assuming that the runner is stopping. Arozarena then did a burst of a few steps like he was going home and Hernandez airmailed the throw and the runner carried on home. The run scored because of the poor throw. The runner likely would have stopped part way home if the throw hadn't been so obviously a mile over the C's head. Lipstick on a pig scoring decision.
John Northey - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#422344) #
Well, that was ugly. But a loss by 1 or by 11 still is the same in the standings. My big issue is Richards being unable to do a mop up inning. But crap games happen, and this one had a lot of help from yet another ump who shows why robo umps are desperately needed for ball-strike calls.
85bluejay - Thursday, September 15 2022 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#422345) #
I am probably on an island by myself with this line of thinking but that's ok - My preferences for the Jays playoff seeding:
- Win division (very unlikely)
- 3rd WC, playing the winner of the Central division and avoiding the Astros as a potential 2nd round matchup.
- 1st WC and playing host to 2nd WC
- 2nd WC, the worst possible outcome - playing in Tampa/Seattle.
The Jays will be playing contending teams (except for 3 games against the Red Sox) with winning records for the remainder of the season while Seattle will be playing horrible teams with losing records - this makes Seattle the odds-on favourite to win the 1st WC and so I'll be hoping the Jays end up as the 3rd WC. Hopefully, the final series in Baltimore will not matter and the Jays can rest players and set their pitching staff for the playoffs.
Jonny German - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:32 AM EDT (#422346) #
The playoff schedule is tighter than normal this year. Even if you sweep the Wild Card series and the Division Series, by game 4 of the Championship Series you'll be choosing between your 4th starter or your ace on 3 days rest.
If all series go the full length and you keep all your starters on a minimum of 4 days rest, the starts get distributed so:
#1 - 6 starts
Plus a bullpen day for ALCS Game 7 - the only off day in the ALCS is after Game 2.
grjas - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#422348) #
I hope the Jays bring their A game on the weekend. The pesky Orioles aren't out of it at 4 back in the loss column. They have 7 games left against sub 500 teams and we have 3, and of course they have 6 games against the Jays. We may be looking to the playoffs, but hopefully the Jays aren't.
John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#422349) #
Ugh really? Why on earth would they schedule it that crazily - imagine if it is Seattle-Tampa Bay for the ALCS you'd be flying coast to coast 3 time zones without days off. ALCS Oct 19, Oct 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - insane. NLCS is the same, 2 games, day off, 5 straight. No travel day between games 5 and 6. Can't believe anyone thought that was a good idea outside of TV networks. The WS is normal - 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games.
Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#422350) #
Here are the post-season dates. Choose your own starting rotation adventure! The Blue Jays season ends October 5, so there's a day off before the Wild Card series. Ideally, your 1, 2, 3 and 4 starters go on October 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Bottom line: if you are going to go deep into the playoffs, you are going to have to lean heavily on both your 3rd and 4th starters. You're #1 and #2 starters can do no better than pitch once in the wild card and once in the ALDS unless they are going to go on short rest, but it is possible for your #4 starter to not get a start in the wild card or ALDS if you sweep both series. There are many different ways to play this as a manager/pitching coach.
John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#422357) #
The Jays might be perfectly set for the playoffs as far as rotation goes - Manoah, Gausman, Berrios, Stripling with Stripling available in the pen for the wild card series. Just hope you don't need all 4 to get through it as then the ALDS would start with White in game 1 (ick) then Manoah-Gausman-Berrios-Stripling. Much rather have Berrios or Stripling start the ALDS. But #1 is getting there. An ALCS ideally would be Manoah-Gausman-off day-Berrios-Stripling-Manoah-Gausman-White/etc. with Berrios on short rest available to help if needed. Phew. Our 5th man issues could become a big problem in the playoffs. Although if White can pitch like he did last time (6 IP 3 R) the Jays would be fine I suspect.
Michael - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#422362) #
I'm personally a fan of scheduling fewer off days in the playoffs and making teams use more of their pitchers. It seems silly to me that the regular season has 5 to 12 starting pitchers for most teams, but that in some past playoffs you could seem to get away with about 2 and a half starting pitchers. I'd be all for no off days in all series, with at most one off day between each series.
StephenT - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:56 AM EDT (#422437) #
I'm guessing it's just this year that they're cutting some off days from the LDS and LCS playoff schedules, to compensate for the regular season ending 3 days later than expected.
fyi, Ben Shulman (son of Dan) is doing the Jays' radio play-by-play this weekend. I recall he also called the Jays' 4-game sweep in Anaheim (but he was in a Toronto studio that time) and his MLB first ball-in-play call was "a Springer dinger to start the game!".

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl