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International Scholarly Research Notices
Volume 2014, Article ID 161530, 9 pages
Application of Signal Analysis to the Climate
Peter Stallinga1 and Igor Khmelinskii2
1Center for Electronics, Optoelectronics and Telecommunications, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of the Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
2Center of Studies in Chemistry of the Algarve, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of the Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
Received 9 April 2014; Accepted 14 July 2014; Published 29 October 2014
Academic Editor: Angelo de Santis
Copyright © 2014 Peter Stallinga and Igor Khmelinskii. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The primary ingredient of the Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis, namely, the assumption that additional atmospheric carbon dioxide substantially raises the global temperature, is studied. This is done by looking at the data of temperature and CO2, both in the time domain and in the phase domain of periodic data. Bicentenary measurements are analyzed and a relaxation model is introduced in the form of an electronic equivalent circuit. The effects of this relaxation manifest themselves in delays in the time domain and correlated phase shifts in the phase domain. For extremely long relaxation time constants, the delay is maximally one-quarter period, which for the yearly-periodic signal means 3 months. This is not in line with the analyzed data, the latter showing delays of 9 (−3) months. These results indicate a reverse function of cause and effect, with temperature being the cause for atmospheric CO2 changes, rather than their effect. These two hypotheses are discussed on basis of literature, where it was also reported that CO2 variations are lagging behind temperature variations.
Currently, one of the biggest worries of our society is the future of the climate. Common belief—supported by an impressive 97% consensus [1]—is that our planet is heating up at an accelerated rate, caused by the rapid increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere, henceforth called [CO2]. This increased carbon dioxide finds its origin in human activity; humans burn fossil fuels, thereby injecting large quantities of carbon into the troposphere by converting it into CO2. The CO2 contributes to the greenhouse effect of our atmosphere and it is believed that the anthropogenic CO2 will heat up the planet by up to six degrees during this century (page 45 of IPCC 2007 report [2]). Here we will analyze these ideas and come up with some interesting conclusions. For that, while the subject is the atmosphere, we do not have to go into much detail of atmospheric science. There are observations one can make about climate systems, even without going into technical details. They are in the realm of signal processing and feedback theory.
The model of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) stands or falls with this idea that temperature is strongly correlated to [CO2] by the so-called greenhouse effect. Even though it is highly questionable to summarize the entire climate system in these two scalar properties—both [CO2] and show fractal-like variations in space and time—this is often done. Serious doubt is immediately found by anybody analyzing the data. The contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect can easily be estimated to be about 3.6% [3]. The total greenhouse effect is also well known; without our atmosphere our planet would be 32 degrees colder, as can be calculated on basis of a radiation balance and albedo of our planet. This makes the CO2 greenhouse effect only 1 kelvin in a simple analysis. We arrive at a similar value if we use statistics and do a linear regression on contemporary [CO2] and temperature data, the maximum of the effect we can thus expect in a linear model when doubling the concentration artificially by burning up fossil fuels [4]. This is below the Global Warming models even if we were to use a linear model. Moreover, it is unlikely that the effects are linear. The system is more likely to be sublinear. That is because the greenhouse effect is governed by absorption of light which is expected to follow the Beer-Lambert Law: the absorption is highly sublinear; twice as much CO2 will not cause twice as much absorption. The classical Arrhenius' Greenhouse law actually states that the forcing is logarithmic.
Yet, later models incorporating nonlinear positive-feedback effects as proposed by many climate scientists do predict a super-linear behavior and come up with an estimate of between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees heating for the next century as caused by our carbon dioxide injection into the atmosphere [2]. The positive feedback can come from secondary effects such as an increase in water in the atmosphere, a strong greenhouse agent, or a CO2-degassing of ground in the permafrost regions when these thaw.
Climate scientists are basing these conclusions mainly on research of the so-called finite-elements type, dividing the system in cells that interact, the same way the weather is studied. Such systems are complicated, but by tuning the processes and parameters that are part of the simulations they manage to explain the actual climate data to an impressive accuracy, as evidenced by the quality of pictures presented in the official climate reports; see, for example, the IPCC 2007 report where simulation and reality are as good as indistinguishable [2], and, moreover, alarmingly, they conclude that the recent rise in temperature can only be attributed to CO2. Yet, the problem with such simulations is that even if they do simulate the past, no insight is gained into the system unless the simulations themselves are analyzed; that is, we have just deferred the problem. This kind of simulations, if not properly analyzed and interpreted, could be in fact a devastating tool for the progress of understanding.
From a philosophical point of view, the fact that the past was explained very accurately does not guarantee the same quality for the prediction of the future. It does not prove that the model is correct. The climate system is chaotic. Small deviations in parameters and initial conditions or assumptions made in the simulations can cause huge changes in the outcome. This is easily explained in an example from electronics. If we have a chaotic circuit with, for instance, critical feedback, we can go to our SPICE or Cadence simulator and find the parameters of our components that exactly explain the behavior of our circuit, so far so good. The problem is that if we now go back and switch on the same circuit, we will get a different result. (Just take an operational amplifier with 100% positive feedback, in the saturated state, the output voltage may reach the positive supply voltage as easily as the negative supply voltage, either case can be simulated.) An additional problem is that even the parameters themselves are not constant and seem to change without any apparent reason, for instance, the El Niño phenomena in the climate. This is one of the reasons electronic engineers talk about "phase margins," the zone in Nyquist plots, real versus imaginary parts of gain, that should be avoided because the circuit will become unpredictable even if it may be simulated perfectly.
In fact, recent temperature data fall way out of the prediction margins of earlier models. In view of the discussion above, this does not come as a surprise. Where extrapolation from the 2007 IPCC report predicted 2011 to be a year with an anomaly of close to one degree (C is our personal estimate based on Figure 2.5 of the IPCC 2007 Report), in reality the anomaly is closer to zero. Since 1998, the hottest year in recent history, the planet has actually been cooling, something that was not foreseen by the predictions of 2007 where a continuing exponential increase in temperature was forecasted by the then generally accepted model. The scientific community is now going back to its drawing boards and fine-tunes its models to new perfection and manages to simulate the new data as well. This is a Bayesian way of doing science and is significantly less reliable. The correctness of this statement is evidenced by the fact that there now apparently exist many models that explain the data up to a certain point in time; every correction of the model that is still consistent with earlier data proves this. Apparently, there is a manifold of models that can explain certain data quite satisfactorily (but that diverge for future predictions). In view of this, one should be reluctant in making strong claims about the correctness of any model.
Just like in the weather, where the same simulation-evaluation techniques are used, we can only hope to get the predictions reasonably under control after thousands of iterations between predictions and reality. Each iteration takes about the amount of time as the prediction span—one week with the weather, 30 years with the climate. Honestly speaking, before we get it right, it will take at least some hundreds of centuries if we uniquely use the approach of finite-elements calculations on supercomputers. In the meantime, we should not see any climate models as proven indisputable facts. A skeptic approach to any scientific model is not an illness; it is an essential ingredient in science. Theories are correct until proven wrong. Ideas that stand up to scrutiny are more likely to be correct than ideas one is supposed not to question.
Still, undeniably, a strong correlation is found between the CO2 concentrations and the temperatures as measured by gas-analysis in drillings in ice shelves; see, for example, the data of the PANGAEA project suggesting that one is the function of the other for the past hundreds of thousands of years [5]. That is a very strong point.
However, proving only statistical correlation, it is not clear from these data which one comes first. Generally, correlation does not mean causation: in particular, in our case, are temperature variations the result of [CO2] variations, or vice versa? While the data are consistent with the model of AGW, they cannot serve as proof of these models. In fact, upon closer scrutiny, the temperature always seems to be ahead of CO2 variations. See Figure 1, where a detail of the temperature and [CO2] history as measured by ice-trapped gases is plotted, picturing the most blatant example of this effect. A simulation (dashed line) is also shown with an exponential-decay convolution of 15 kyr, quite adequately reproducing the results. Indermühle and coworkers [6] made a full statistical analysis and find a value of 900 yr for the delay and moreover note that "this value is roughly in agreement with findings by Fischer et al. who reported a time lag of CO2 to the Vostok temperature of (600 ± 400) yr during early deglacial changes in the last 3 transitions glacial-interglacial [7]." This is inexplicable in the framework of Global Warming models and we honestly start having some legitimate doubts.
Figure 1: Detail of data of ice shelf drilling correlating the CO2 concentration and temperature. It is obvious that CO2 lags behind the temperature. This is consistently the case. A simulation is shown (dashed line) of a convolution of the temperature with a delay of 15 thousand years.
The apparent time lag may possibly be due to a calibration problem of the measurements, and indeed corrections have been made to the data since then, to make [CO2] variations and temperature variations coincide. While these corrections are the result of circular reasoning—where the magnitude is found by modeling the behavior of ice based on climate models and the climate models are based on the ice behavior—these corrections are not even sufficient to remove our doubts. If the correlations are true and we continue to claim that temperature variations are the result of [CO2] variations, something is still not correct. The Vostok data of Figure 1 show a sensitivity of 10 degrees for 50 ppm [CO2]. Note that contemporary [CO2] variations are of the order of 80 ppm rise from the preindustrial value. We are thus in for a 16-degree temperature-rise. The fact that we did not reach that level means that either CO2 is not climate forcing, or that there is a delay between [CO2] variations (cause) and temperature variations (effect). To then get a rough idea of the magnitude of this delay, in 25 years, only 2.5% (0.4 of 16 degrees) of this rise occurred. The relaxation time is thus (25 years)/, which is about 1000 years. These are back-of-the-envelope calculations—any "real" values used for the calculation could anyway be debated by anybody. Yet, the outcome will always be more or less this order of magnitude. In other words, either the Vostok plots should show a delay between [CO2] and of the order of 1000 years, or the carbon dioxide is not climate forcing. The data, however, show a delay of years [6] or zero, the latter value resulting from questionable corrections. As far as we know, no correction was proposed to result in the +1000 yr delay necessary to explain contemporary behavior.
What is more, modern correlation figures such as those given in Figure 1 also include methane CH4 (available at NOAA Paleoclimatology [8]) and, remarkably, this methane shows the same correlation with [CO2] and . This leaves us flabbergasted. We know that methane is also (assumed to be) a strong climate-forcing greenhouse agent. The enigma is, then, how did the information from the [CO2] variations percolate to [CH4] variations? Was this information from [CO2] transmitted to the methane through the temperature variations? In other words, [CH4] variations are the result of variations, rather than their cause? Then we may equally assume that [CO2] variations are the effect of variations rather than their cause. That should not be considered farfetched.
There are several mechanisms that may explain such an inverse phase relation, such as outgassing of CO2 (and CH4) from the warming oceans and thawing permafrost; the correlation between [CO2] and [CH4] then stems from a common underlying cause. If that is the case, artificially changing the CO2 in the atmosphere will not change the temperature of our planet, just like heating up a can of soda will liberate the gases contained therein into the atmosphere, while increasing the concentrations of gases above the can of soda will not raise its temperature. This unidirectional relation between temperature and gas concentrations is what is called Henry's Law; the ratio of concentrations of gas dissolved in the liquid and mixed in the air above it in equilibrium is a parameter that depends on temperature. Al-Anezi and coworkers have studied this effect in more detail in a laboratory setup under various conditions of salinity and pressure, and so forth [9]. For CO2 in and above water an increase in temperature will cause outgassing with a proportionality that is consistent with the correlation found by the historic correlations of global temperature and CO2 in the atmosphere. Also, Fischer and coworkers find the delay of [CO2] relative to , as discussed above, likely caused by this ocean outgassing effects [7] and find that at colder times, the delay is longer, which is itself consistent with Arrhenius-like behavior of thermally-activated processes, characteristic of the vast majority of chemical reactions occurring in nature. In the presence of an alternative explanation, there is room for doubt in the AGW ideas that increased [CO2] will cause an increased temperature.
Inspired by this uncertainty in the (Anthropogenic) Global Warming model, we tried to see if we can find more evidence for this failure of the cause-and-effect idea. We looked at the recent historic climate data (from just before the AGW model prevalence) and meticulously measured [CO2] data and came to the same conclusion, as we will present here.
We started with the data of a climate report from before the Global Warming claims. We deem these data more reliable since they were for sure not produced under the tutelage of a political committee (IPCC). At least we are more convinced about the neutrality of the scientists reporting these data. Moreover, the work contains all the useful data and these are even available online. The ideas presented here do not need recent data and thus we refrained from looking at them altogether.
The authors of the work, Balling and coworkers [10], analyzed the global warming (without capitals because it is not the name of a model) and concluded the following: "our analysis reveal a statistically significant warming of approximately C over the period 1751 to 1995. The period of most rapid warming in Europe occurred between 1890 and 1950, no warming was observed in the most recent half century." Note that at the onset of the Global Warming ideas, no warming was observed that can be correlated to the (accelerated) increase of [CO2]. Note also that since 1998 it has not warmed up at all, as confirmed by satellite data (1998 was the warmest year) [11], in spite of the continuing exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 [12]. The temperature seems to be unaffected by the anthropogenic CO2.
Balling and coworkers then went on to analyze the increase in temperature as a function of the time of the year for the data between 1851 and 1991. They calculated for each of the twelve months the increase in temperature. They found a distribution as given in Figure 2 (open circles).
Figure 2: Distribution of global warming (degrees per decade) between 1851 and 1991 (source: Balling et al. [10]) and CO2 concentrations (measured at Mauna Loa, source: NOAA [13]) over a year. The dashed and solid lines are sinusoidal fits to the data of temperature and [CO2], respectively.
This figure based on the data of Balling is again remarkable. The first thing we note is that, while there has been an average of warming, this is not spread equally over the year. In fact, summer months have become cooler. Without knowing the underlying reason, this is remarkable, since [CO2] has increased in all months. There are seasonal fluctuations of the CO2 concentrations; see the black dots which represent the monthly [CO2] fluctuations relative to the yearly average at the Mauna Loa site (source: NOAA, visited 2008 [8]). These rapid fluctuations are mainly attributed to biological activity (the Northern hemisphere has more land and in colder times—in winter—more plants are converted into CO2 and in warmer times—in summer—more photosynthesis takes place converting CO2 into biomass, i.e., [CO2] is a natural function of temperature). Part of the fluctuations, however, is attributed to human activity (in winter the Northern hemisphere—where more people live—is cold and humans thus burn more fuel to warm their houses, i.e., [CO2] is a function of temperature). As a side note, these two things show us that it is very straightforward to understand how [CO2] can be a function of temperature, in these cases through biological activity, including that of humans, in this case resulting in a rapid inverse proportionality (warmer less CO2). Other long-term processes such as degassing of oceans can have opposite effects, that is, warmer more CO2. While we bear this in mind, we will continue the reasoning of Anthropogenic Global Warming and assume an opposite correlation, that is, temperature is a function of [CO2], and analyze the oscillations. We will show that this assumption is inconsistent with the data.
While the natural oscillations have always existed and thus do not result in seasonal oscillations of global warming, the human-caused fluctuations should be represented in the temperature fluctuations. What we would expect in the framework of AGW is that all months have warmed up (because of general injection of anthropogenic CO2 into the atmosphere), but winter months a little bit more (because of seasonal fluctuations of these injections). As a response to the sinusoidal [CO2] oscillations, a sinusoidal oscillation in temperature is to be expected that is (i) offset vertically by an amount to make it fully above the zero line; (ii) offset (delayed in time) by a time that can be up to 3 months maximum, as will be discussed here. Neither is the case.
Comparing the monthly fluctuations in temperature increase with monthly fluctuations in [CO2] we see again that the latter lags behind, this time by about 3 months (to be precise, fitting sine curves to the data gives a difference of 2.9 months). One might think that the temperature lags behind 9 months—after all, months are periodic—but upon second thought, this is not possible. This is best explained in a relaxation model.
Electronic engineers model things with electronic circuits and this case of temperature and CO2 is also very adequately studied by such circuits. Using an equivalent electronic circuit does not mean that the processes are electronic, but that they can be modeled by such circuits, as in an analog computer. (The appendix gives the mathematical link between a relaxation model and the equivalent electronic circuit.)
In this case we have a model between driving force (either [CO2], as we are wont to believe, or temperature ) and the response (resp., or [CO2]). For instance, an increase in [CO2] will cause an increase in by the greenhouse effect. This is necessarily a simple relaxation system, where the changes of the force cause the system to be off-equilibrium until a new equilibrium is reached. This restoring of the equilibrium comes with a certain relaxation time. The reasons for relaxation can be various. For instance, CO2 has to diffuse to places where it can do its temperature effect. There can even be more than a single relaxation process, with a complex kinetics similar to a multistage nuclear decay. The fact is that one of the relaxation times is dominant, and we can describe the relaxation by a single relaxation time (i.e., the sum of all relaxation times). As long as there is no resonance in the system (something that can only be achieved with positive feedback) it will behave as described here.
We will model our climate system with a simple electronic relaxation system consisting of a resistance and a capacitance, and , respectively; see Figure 3. The product of the two yields the relaxation time, . At the entrance of this system we connect our oscillating driving voltage (representing, e.g., [CO2] oscillations), in which is time. The response is measured as the charge in the capacitor which represents, for instance, the temperature variations. This charge is also measured by the output voltage by the standard capacitor relation . Thus our output voltage represents the response (e.g., temperature).
Figure 3: Relaxation RC system. (a) Equivalent circuit. (b) Temporal response. (c) Phase difference (dark curves) and amplitude (gray curve, log scale) of response. Note that the maximum phase difference is 3 months. The dot represents the radiation-temperature system, where the warmest (coldest) day is about one month after the "longest" ("shortest") day, indicating a relaxation time of about 0.1 year (1.2 months).
Applying a sinusoidal input signal, [CO2] (with the frequency of oscillation), we get a sinusoidal wave at the output, with the same frequency, but with a phase at the output that is not equal to the phase at the input signal, . The phase difference is directly and uniquely determined by the relaxation time of the system and the oscillation frequency ; see Figure 3.
For very low oscillating frequencies, the system can easily relax and the phase of the output signal is equal to that of the input signal. For increased frequencies or for increased relaxation times the system has difficulty accompanying the driving force. The amplitude at the output drops and starts lagging behind the input. The maximum phase difference for infinite frequencies or infinite relaxation time is exactly one-quarter period.
In our case our oscillating period is one year. One-quarter period is thus 3 months and that is the maximum delay we can expect between driving force and response. For relaxation times much longer than the oscillating period of one year, that is actually the delay one expects. The delay time provides information about the system.
As an example, the comparable system of solar radiation and temperature—comparable in that the oscillating period is one year and both deal with the weather and climate—has a delay of one month; the solar radiation and temperature oscillate with one year period, but the warmest day is nearly everywhere one month after the day with the most daylight and the on average coldest day is one month after the day with least daylight. In Figure 3(c) we see that the relaxation time of the {radiation temperature} system therefore must be about 0.1 year (1.2 months). In the plot this is indicated with a dot.
We can get a similar estimation value of the relaxation time of the atmosphere temperature through daily oscillations. As a rough figure, the temperature drops by about 4 degrees at night in about 8 hours after the sun has set. Assume that the relaxation upon this step-like solar radiation is a simple exponential (situation b shown in the appendix) and would finish eventually at close to absolute zero (say 10 kelvin) and starts at 290 K (thus a total amplitude of 280 K): 4 degrees in 8 hours, we solve the equation which yields 23 days, close to the value found above from yearly oscillations.
Going back to the data of [CO2] and temperature (Figure 2) we can now understand the behavior, that is, the phase difference, but only if we assume the temperature to be the driving force. For instance, for some reason the temperature has increased more in winter months, and, as a result, to the natural [CO2] oscillations has been added a component with a maximum in spring months. The alternative, [CO2] being the driving force and a delay of 9 months (3 quarter periods), is mathematically not possible. Another explanation, which we do not consider as a valid alternative, is that the temperature might be lagging behind [CO2] if it has a negative gain, that is, [CO2] increments lower the temperature. This negative sign of the gain would add another phase shift and a total apparent phase shift of would be possible. This goes even more against AGW models, although we do not see an easy physical explanation for how CO2 might lower the temperature.
This simple analysis opposes the hypothesis that [CO2] is causing serious temperature rises. As said, the model assumes that no resonance occurs that can possibly cause longer delay times. This, in our opinion, is a valid assumption since resonance is not likely. First of all, for this strong positive feedback, resonance effects should be observable, which experimentally is not the case. Although many climate scientists have proposed positive feedbacks as discussed in the introduction and they make heavy use of them in order to explain and model the needed nonlinear behavior of the greenhouse effect, this goes against intuition. In a chaotic system these feedback factors are then extremely critical. Scientists of any plumage, when making such simulations, know this: if they change their parameters just slightly (sometimes even in the scale of the numerical resolution of their floating point numbers), the outcome can be hugely different.
There is also an experimental argument against positive feedback factors, namely, the conscientious satellite measurements; see, for instance, the work of Lindzen and Choi [14], Spencer [15], or Wielicki et al. [16]. These, in fact, prove a negative feedback in the climate system. Without feedback, in standard theory, if Earth warms up (by global warming in a radiation imbalance), the temperature rises and the outward Earth radiation increases by a certain amount, until establishing a new equilibrium. In the AGW model, a positive feedback of the the following form is used: if the temperature increases, the outward Earth radiation is less than that predicted by standard theory or the incoming solar radiation increases because of reasons like cloud (non)forming, thus increasing the temperature even further. The contrary can also happen: in negative feedback, if the planet heats up by a radiation imbalance for whatever reason, new channels of Earth radiation can be opened or incoming solar radiation blocked (for instance, by increased cloud cover), thus reducing the temperature with respect to standard theory. As demonstrated by the scientists mentioned above, the Earth climate is a negative-feedback "autostabilizing" system, while they do not identify any specific feedback mechanisms. This is also in agreement with the fact that, whereas the conditions on our planet have significantly changed over the geological history (the sun for instance has been 25% less bright than today), the climate has been rather stable, always restoring from climate perturbations to median values instead of saturating in extreme values; the latter would be expected in a thermal-runaway positive-feedback climate system. Note that, if large positive feedback exists, the temperature is unstable and will change until it saturates, that is, until negative feedback becomes important. In other words, it is technically not even possible that we are in a positive-feedback situation, considering the stable temperatures. (Compare this to the positive-feedback of a shopaholic—buying always makes him buy even more—his funds are acceleratingly depleted or his credit increasingly rising, until the banks put a lid on his spending, i.e., negative feedback.) We must be in a negative-feedback situation and Lindzen and Choi, Spencer, and Wielicki et al. have proven this by measurements. Negative feedback was already argued to be significant when the consensus of the scientists was for a global cooling; see the work of Idso [17].
Additional arguments against positive feedback come from the fact that every day, and every year, the temperature is brought off equilibrium. At night it cools down and in the daytime it warms up. In winter it cools down and in summer it warms up. These temperature disturbances are much larger and much faster than those that may have been produced by greenhouse gases (20 degrees/day or 30 degrees/year versus 0.7 degrees/100 years). The same accounts for CO2 disturbances. The human-caused CO2 seems insignificant compared to the large and noisy emissions naturally occurring on this planet (only the accumulated effect of the tiny human-originated CO2 is supposed to have an effect). To give an idea, Segalstad established that of the current rise in [CO2] levels relative to the preindustrial level only 12 ppm is attributable to human activity while 68 ppm is attributed to natural phenomena [18]. These fluctuations are also visible in the extensive summary of Beck [19] and show that even in recent history the [CO2] levels were sometimes higher than the modern values, while as everyone knows, the human emissions have monotonously increased, showing that these huge fluctuations can only have a natural origin. Relevant for the discussion here, the fluctuations would rapidly push the climate off equilibrium if it were unstable.
Yet, in spite of these huge disturbances, both in temperature and CO2, the equilibrium is restored every day and every year and every century. Had the earth climate been a positive-feedback system, in summer or in winter the temperature would have been in a runaway situation, unrecoverable in the following compensating half-period. Apparently the system can recover very easily and repeatedly from such huge disturbances. The reason is that the climate is a negative-feedback system that stabilizes itself. This is an unavoidable conclusion.
One might think that the seasonal fluctuations are too fast to be causing a runaway scenario and that before the system runs away it already recovers. That is a misapprehension: changes cannot be too fast. If the system is intrinsically unstable, it will be unstable. If starting oscillations are much faster than the response time of the system, the effective amplitude is reduced, but in a runaway system they will be amplified up to the point of saturation. The system can only be stable if the feedback factor at that specific frequency is not positive. Look at it like this: in the first half of the year, it is hot and the system tries to runaway. In the second half of the year it is colder and it will restore, but it has a minute memory that the temperature has already run off a little in the first half and the second half therefore does not compensate completely. In the first year we remain with a tiny temperature offset. Once this offset is introduced, the system will runaway. Of course, it can runaway in both directions. Chance will determine which one, but if the system is unstable (positive feedback), the system will run away. Like the metastable system of a ball placed on top of a hill. It can only stay there in the absence of noise or any fluctuation in general. In conclusion, only negative feedback makes sense.
Relevant to the current work, such negative feedback will make any delay longer than 1/4 period impossible. Thus, the fact that we find a delay close to a quarter period means that (i) the temperature signal is the origin for [CO2] signal (or the two are uncorrelated) and (ii) the relaxation time linking the two is (much) longer than the period (12 months) of oscillation.
Moreover, even if positive feedback were present, for the resonance itself to be significant, the oscillating frequency needs to be close to the resonance frequency, that is, 12 months. It is highly unlikely that the natural frequency of the climate-[CO2] system is close to the 12-month-periodic driving force, even more so since also the long-term ice-drilling data need to be explained somehow, where delays of several thousands of years are observed. In our analysis, relaxation times of several thousands of years will explain both the ice-drilling data and the yearly temperature and [CO2] oscillations.
Finally, the set of data we used is rather limited. We only used data presented by Balling et al. that ends at the end of the 20th century. Moreover, they only have data from the Northern Hemisphere. Future research should tell if the ideas presented here can stand up to scrutiny when more recent data and pan-global data are used. As a note in proof, Humlum et al. [20] have recently investigated correlation between temperature and [CO2] variations on the time scale of decades, similarly concluding that [CO2] changes are delayed in relation to temperature and can therefore not be the reason for temperature changes.
In conclusion, the idea tested here that [CO2] is the cause of temperature changes does not pass our signal analysis. It goes a little too far to say that what we present here is proof for the opposite, namely, that [CO2] is the effect of temperature, but our analysis does not contradict this. Future will tell if such a hypothesis may be postulated with some confidence.
The Mathematics of Relaxations
In simple relaxation models the (negative) change of a quantity is proportional to the magnitude of the remaining quantity. Simple examples are nuclear decay, in which the change of number of atoms at a certain time is given by , or the velocity of an object under friction is given by ( and positive constants). From experience, and by solving the differential equation, we know that such systems show exponential decay, and , respectively.
Now, we can take a function of time that is the driving force of another quantity, expressed by the response function , the cause and the effect, respectively. We can decompose the function into an integral of Dirac-delta functions. The response to each delta function is given by the function . Assuming linearity, the total response is then a convolution: where the Heaviside function ( for and 0 otherwise) was used to force the causality; the response can only come after the driving force. (Note that nonlinearities will not change the sign of these calculations, i.e., a delay cannot become an advance.) For instance, if the response function is an exponential decay, as mentioned above, Substituting a delta-function at for the driving force will reproduce the exponential decay: In other words, the response to a "spike," a delta function at is an exponential decay with an amplitude and time constant . The response to a Heaviside (step) function is then given by More interesting—more relevant for our work—is the case of a sinusoidal driving force. This can now easily be calculated by substituting the driving-force function into A.2: For the second step in A.6 Gradshteyn and Ryszik [21] was used. Figure 4 shows these three cases of driving forces and response functions. Figure 1 shows a simulation with the driving function equal to the measured temperature and a delay of kyr, which results in a quite good representation of the [CO2] curve.
Figure 4: Cause and effect functions, , solid lines, and , dashed lines, for relaxation systems, with three different driving-force functions: (a) , (b) , and (c) .
An electronic circuit such as that presented here has these properties of exponential response to a Heaviside function and linearity and the response of A.6. For this reason, such (virtual) circuits are widely used in simulations of phenomena including phenomena far away from electronics. The interesting and relevant conclusion of A.6 is that the maximum phase shift is and this occurs for frequencies that are much higher than the relaxation speed, .
Conflict of Interests
The authors declare that they do not have any conflict of interests. This research was supported by no grant. It received no funding whatsoever, apart from the authors' salaries at the university where they work. They are not members of any climate committees (political or other); they are not linked to companies or NGOs, financially or otherwise. This is an independent work that does not necessarily represent the opinion of the authors' university or that of their government(s).
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A. Indermühle, E. Monnin, B. Stauffer, T. F. Stocker, and M. Wahlen, "Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome Ice Core, Antarctica," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 735–738, 2000. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
H. Fischer, M. Wahlen, J. Smith, D. Mastroianni, and B. Deck, "Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations," Science, vol. 283, no. 5408, pp. 1712–1714, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
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K. Al-Anezi, C. Somerfield, D. Mee, and N. Hilal, "Parameters affecting the solubility of carbon dioxide in seawater at the conditions encountered in MSF desalination plants," Desalination, vol. 222, no. 1–3, pp. 548–571, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
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Welcome to the Hive Clan Wiki, the one-stop hub and information central for one of the biggest and best clans in the Alien-based online videogame universe! All players are welcome! See our Hive Index for navigation.
The Hive (once known as the Matriarch Hive from August 2013 to January 2014) is an online clan aesthetically-centered around xenomorphs, the main alien species of the Alien franchise. Over the years since its inception, the Hive has expanded to many games on different consoles. On its original console of Playstation 3, the Hive can be found on the games Aliens: Colonial Marines (2013) and Alien Vs Predator (2010), with Grand Theft Auto V (2013) having been previously active but now decommissioned. The clan has also expanded to Xbox360 and PC for the game Alien Vs Predator, as well as the game Warframe (2013) on the Playstation 4. The Clan is currently the oldest and largest clan left on its original home game of Aliens Vs Predator.
The online group consists of 2800 members led by current "Matriarch" and Clan Leader Vincent_Bishop90. The PS3 sector and the PC sector are headed by Sub-leader and "Monarch" XxPioneer76xX and the Warframe sector is led by Monarch Lotusofthesand. The Clan has been going since 2010 with Alien Vs Predator's Playstation release, the game still currently acting as the Clan's oldest and largest of its sectors. See Vincent_Bishop90 or the Council members mad_hatter_968, piz420, ana2003sa, numnutsforever, italian-stal, and Cipher74 to get initiated, or by any other sub-leaders (Empresses, Queens, Deacons, or Kings) of the Clan. Also, feel free to ask the Matriarch or the Clan for any hints, tips, or resources on the Alien universe or any of the Clan's videogames once you become a member. Also, we would like to thank Hive member xXOpTiC_KnIvEsXx for creating this Wiki, which has been successfully run since 2013!
This is the Hive's original symbol, created by members in 2010. However, this symbol has become well-known enough to be used to depict xenomorphs in general.
In general, the Clan contains a rank system of 15 natural ranks and 6 special ranks (see "Ranks"), as well as a 3-level prestige system. As a self-sustaining and independent organization in each of the games in which it can be found, the Clan has all of its own special matches, glitches, ranks, games, activities, and even hacks, some of them no-one will find anywhere but the Hive! Some of the special matches will rank members up quickly while others will allow members to become new sub-leaders. See sections of each game, each special round, each activity, "Ranks," "Members," "Hive History," "The Symbols of the Hive," "The Landscapes of the Hive," "Council," "Bulwark of the Royals," "Mixblood Elites," "Hivebloods," "Hive of Fame," "Hive Updates," "Hive Exclusives," "Hive's Rage," and other pages to learn more. Having trouble finding what you're looking for, or can't navigate the site? Use our Hive Index.
The Hive has some individual links and videos of its own. Feel free to look up Hive Initiations on Youtube, as well as other Hive events as they eventually are filmed and posted. We have a Discord Server that you can join here. The Hive is also in association with Wiki editor KingAzxoll9's comedy Youtube series Life of Azxoll (now unavailable). Also, feel free to join our Hive Forum and talk about our clan and wiki. Feel free to give us any advice for games, special rounds, glitches, activities, the Wiki, or the clan in general in the comments as well. The Hive Wiki also houses some individual pages for other Hive-affiliated clans that have been involved in our history, such as allies or subclans. If you are a clan leader to a Hive ally or subclan, feel free to request your own page from the Matriarch. Look at the Shadow Lycans and Royal Elders pages for more on other Hive-affiliated clans. Thank you, and enjoy the website!
The Matriarch tells the executive editor of the wiki, KingAzxoll9, what to type and update. He is the "Master of the Wiki." Please comment on the forum anything you question to add to the wiki, and KingAzxoll9 will get back to you to say if its ok.


OK, I went on holiday a couple of weeks ago and have been pretty bad at writing for my blog.
Thankfully Rowena has done a great entry on her blog about our trip (saves me some typing!). Check it out here: click here.
I had a great time, and was really pleased that Rowena got me to go because of how much I enjoyed it. We had fantastic food, mostly fantastic weather and a fantastic time.
You are currently browsing the JD's Blog weblog archives for October, 2005.


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Cycling: Stars to get on their bikes for Tour visit
NORTH East cycling fans can see some of the sport's top names on their dootstep when the 2008 Tour of Britain comes to Tyneside on Friday.
nechronicle
Evening Chronicle
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More than 90 elite riders, including Team GB Olympic medallists, will battle for the yellow jersey on the 97-mile (156-km) route across the region.
The race will start in Darlington, one of England's six cycling demonstrations towns, and finish on the Newcastle-Gateshead Quayside.
It is the first time the Tour of Britain has visited the North East and the event forms part of North East England's World Class programme of festivals and events developed by Culture10.
The race begins in Darlington at 10.15am and passing times will be dependent on road conditions.
The cyclists will pass through Sedgefield (10.49); Durham City (11.15); Burnhope (11.30); Rowlands Gill (11.48); Wylam (12.01); Stamfordham (12.21); and cross the A696 at Belsay (12.34); Morpeth (12.56); Bedlington (1.03); Seaton Sluice (1.20); Whitley Bay (1.23); Tynemouth (1.27pm); North Shields Fish Quay (1.36); Wallsend A187 (1.43); Walker A186 (1.48) and Newcastle Quayside (1.53, crossing the Swing Bridge to Gateshead Quays).
Cyclists are expected to finish on Gateshead Quays between 1.55 and 2.20.
Ahead of the riders crossing the finish line on Gateshead Quays, children from local schools will also be taking part in Go Ride cycle races from 12.30.
There will be a special presentation for the stage winner and leaders' jerseys on the podium at Gateshead Quays shortly after the lead cyclists cross the finish line.
The Tour of Britain will arrive in the North East as interest in cycling is at a high following the success of Team GB at the Olympics.
Among those competing are Olympic gold medallists Bradley Wiggins and Geraint Thomas and bronze medallist Chris Newton.
The cyclists will be battling it out for Tour Britain Yellow, King of the Mountain, sprints and green jerseys.
There will be two E.ON King of the Mountains climbs on the route at Langley (11.30) and High Barns (12.07), as well as Hot Spot Sprint sections at Harelaw (11.40), Morpeth (12.56) and Seaton Sluice (1.20).
Paul Rowland, press officer on behalf of the Tour of Britain, said: "We are looking forward to our first visit to the North East.
"We have a great route which looks to be tailor-made for a sprint finish on the banks of the Tyne.
"By the time the riders arrive in Darlington we will have a good idea of who the contenders are for the 2008 yellow jersey, but there will still be all to play for along the road between Darlington and NewcastleGateshead."
The British equivalent of the Tour de France, the race features 16 international teams of six riders. It began in London on Sunday and finishes this Sunday in Liverpool.
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Newcastle United FCDonny van de Beek supposedly rejected Newcastle United earlier in the window, but who could the Toon target instead?

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Health is wealth. It is important to take steps to stay healthy. These days the average health of a person is rapidly declining, and there is a dire need to create awareness.
The most important thing is to keep an eye on the food that we eat. Our health largely depends on what we eat. If we consume fatty foods, we'll gain weight in no time. On the other hand, if we diet and stay away from oil completely, we might begin to have other deficiencies.
You need to make sure to consume a balanced diet. This means to have a mix of everything. You should be aware of your nutritional and calorie needs and then make a diet plan accordingly.
The right amount of food depends on several factors including your age, gender and height etc. You can also consult a nutritionist to prepare a plan for you.
It is important to be physically active. If all you do is lazy around, then your body will get used to it and you may even begin to gain weight.
When we talk about being physical, we do not only mean to hit the gym and turn to 5% All Day You May supplements to keep you fresh. It means to take part in physical activities. Something as simple as walking 3km a day can do the trick for you.
Instead of counting on technology, do things manually. Get up to turn on your television instead of using the remote, walk to the nearby shop instead of choosing a car or just take the stair instead of an elevator. All these small changes can make tones of difference.
It is important to have a proper routine in order to have a healthy life. This means you should have a specific time for when you wake up, have your meals and go to sleep etc.
The next step is to make sure your routine is apt. For example, going to bed every night at 1AM everyday is a routine as well, but such a routine can be hazardous for you.
You must make sure to remember basic rules when making a routine. Make it a habit to wake up early in the morning and ideally go for a jog before you have a healthy meal. All these small things can make a lot of difference in the long-run.
Addiction of any kind is bad. Some of the most common addictions are smoking, drinking and even surfing the web. All these start as a habit or hobby and then you eventually get drowned into it.
If you're growing an addiction, you must make sure to prevent that from happening. This can be done by looking at programs designed to stop addiction and speaking to others about your situation.
Remember that addiction is hard to bid adieu to, but it is very important if you wish to lead a healthy and happy life.
This is it. These are the changes you need to bring in your life in order to stay healthy, fit and happy. Follow these tips and you will have no problem.
Conor is currently researching Ireland's physical culture movement as a PhD student at University College Dublin. When not in the library or the gym, he likes to try his hand at writing....with mixed results.


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Strangers Move Mountains To Help Dog In Stolen Car Get Home
As much as we want to see the good in everyone, there are always some people who will hurt others every chance they get. So, when Jason Miller left his car running with his dog inside for only a minute, he never expected someone to steal his vehicle and his best friend. Of course, he should've been more careful, but how can someone steal something that quickly? It left poor Miller worrying if he'd ever see his dog Gunner again. Cars are replaceable, but a dog's life is not. Miller had no choice but to turn to social media in hopes that someone would be kind enough to help with the search.
Image: Lindsey Stiefvater Facebook
Social Media Hunt
Miller arrived at the Hampton Inn in downtown St. Petersburg, Florida just before his car was stolen. He parked in valet, and left it running as he checked in. Gunner waited patiently, but less than 30 seconds after his dad was gone, a stranger jumped in the car and drove away. It was barely even enough time for anyone to process what happened.
The chances of Gunner returning home seemed slim, but Miller was ready to do whatever it took. He had never been great at using social media, but he knew it was his only hope. He made a post about Gunner and before long, his friends were sharing it all over Facebook.
"I've never used social media like that before," said Miller. "And, just to put it out there, 'hey can you guys please share this,' and it just took off really quick. That's how we got him back."
If it weren't for Miller's post, Lindsey Stiefvater and Kevin Minner would've never been able to become the heroes they are today. The couple insists that 'hero' is a strong word since they were just doing the right thing, but they truly saved Gunner's life.
Gunner's Guardian Angels
Stiefvater and Minner were driving home late at night when Minner slammed on the brakes. Somehow, he spotted a dog amid the darkness, and he knew they had to help. Being avid dog lovers themselves, the couple couldn't leave a lost dog behind.
They got out of the car and tried to get him, but the poor pup was terrified and only ran away from them. At that point, they called animal control and posted on Facebook for help. That's when their Facebook friends shared Miller's post with them.
The couple continued to search for the dog, but they first stopped home to pick up turkey, a flashlight, and a leash to help them. They eventually found the poor pup trapped in a storm drain. Again, Gunner looked frozen in fear, so Steifvater tried her best to be gentle when approaching him.
"He was just frightened and you could tell that I was trying to be self conscious about how close I was getting so I didn't spook him," Steifvater said. "He looked very, very sad."
Miller soon arrived at the scene to reunite with his lovable pup. He cannot share his gratitude enough. Without the kindness of these two individuals, Gunner might've died on his own. Steifvater also said that rescuing Gunner brought a lot of joy to them during these difficult times.
Now, Gunner is getting plenty of love and attention at home. Miller's car was found days later, but it was completely trashed. The police are still searching for the person responsible. Luckily, Miller doesn't care about his damaged vehicle though, all he cares about is that Gunner is safe and sound.
H/T: wfla.com
Featured Image: Lindsey Stiefvater Facebook
Mom Found "Odd-Looking" Baby Bird Abandoned On Lawn And Documented How He Grew Over 1-Year


Calling all east coast skiers and boarders, winter has come early.
improvements, this year's event promises to be even bigger and better.
sale, and riding in October, need I say more? Huge thanks to our sponsors as well: Jibij Pro-Shop, Eesa, Logic, and Peace Coast!
Any questions can be sent to toggparkcrew@gmail.com. Hope to see you at Togg on the 20th!


EasyJet could soon be on the hunt for a CRM specialist agency following trials of a new "invitation-only" frequent flyer scheme, which the no-frills airline is considering rolling out.
The company's ad account is held by VCCP, while media is run through OMD. The airline does not have a dedicated CRM business on the loyalty account but Havas EHS handles its main direct marketing business.
EasyJet's marketing activity reigned supreme at the 2014 Marketing Society Awards for Excellence, taking home no fewer than five prizes, including the Grand Prix for its 'Europe by EasyJet' campaign.
The new loyalty scheme offers increased flexibility on bookings, a price guarantee and a dedicated phone number and is part of EasyJet's strategy to drive repeat bookings; 57% of bookings are made by existing customers, up from 50% in 2010, while figure for returning business customers is even higher at 62%.
The frequent flyer trial, which has been running for the past three months, involves more than 15,000 passengers in the UK, France and Switzerland. The airline claimed over 90% of the trial group has said the frequent flyer scheme is appealing to them.
The airline also participates in three other loyalty schemes – Nectar, RBS Your Points and Emirates Skywards – which enables members of these schemes to acquire EasyJet flights when they redeem points.
The move comes as EasyJet reports revenue up 6.3% year on year at its end of year results. It says profit before tax is up 21.5%, rising from £478m to £581m.


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Contact LinkedIn Twitter
CABA™ Platform
Posters & Publications
CABA-201
DSG3-CAART
MuSK-CAART
PLA2R-CAART
DSG3/1-CAART
DesCAARTes™ Phase 1 Trial
MusCAARTes™ Phase 1 Trial
Cabaletta Bio Presents Updated Interim DesCAARTes™ Trial Phase 1 Data at the ASGCT 25th Annual Meeting
Download as PDF May 18, 2022 7:00am EDT
PHILADELPHIA, May 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cabaletta Bio, Inc. (Nasdaq: CABA), a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of targeted cell therapies for patients with autoimmune diseases, today presented updated clinical and translational data through 6 months of follow-up in cohorts A1 through A3, safety data through 3 months and persistence data through 1 month of follow-up in cohorts A1 through A4 from the DesCAARTes™ trial at the American Society of Gene & Cell Therapy (ASGCT) 25th Annual Meeting being held in Washington, D.C. from May 16-19, 2022.
"At ASGCT, we presented updated interim data showing that DSG3-CAART has had a favorable safety profile with no dose limiting toxicities or cytokine release syndrome of any grade through cohort A4, which was a dose of 2.5 billion DSG3-CAART cells. In addition, we have observed a dose dependent increase in DSG3-CAART persistence, which at cohort A4 approached the lower end of the range that is observed in anti-CD19 CART oncology studies in combination with lymphodepletion," said David Chang, M.D., Chief Medical Officer of Cabaletta. "These data continue to support the planned dose escalation in this trial and our conviction in the potential of this program. As we progress through additional cohorts of the study, we look forward to evaluating the relationship between DSG3-CAART persistence and potential clinical responses in patients with mPV along with the opportunity to explore higher doses and an enhanced manufacturing process to meet our goal of reaching deep, durable and potentially curative responses for these patients."
Cabaletta's DesCAARTes™ Phase 1 trial is an open-label, dose escalation, multi-center study of DSG3-CAART in adults with mucosal-dominant pemphigus vulgaris (mPV). The trial is designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose of DSG3-CAART in adult subjects with active, anti-DSG3 Ab positive, biopsy confirmed mPV that is inadequately managed by one or more standard therapies. The primary endpoint is incidence of adverse events (AEs), including dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs), such as cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and neurotoxicity, related to DSG3-CAART within three months of infusion. Secondary endpoints include CAART persistence (qPCR), anti-DSG3 Ab levels (ELISA) and disease activity (PDAI). The trial is currently in cohort A5 (5.0 to 7.5 billion cells) and is being conducted across multiple clinical sites throughout the United States. The Company plans to include two new additional dose cohorts – A5e (enhanced manufacturing process at 5.0 to 7.5 billion cells) and A6m (multi-dose regimen at 10 to 15 billion cells). The prioritization of cohorts following cohort A5 (e.g. A5e or A6m) is subject to evaluation of emerging data and discussions with the FDA, as applicable.
The updated interim DesCAARTes™ trial Phase 1 data included 12 treated subjects, four cohorts with three patients per cohort; nine having completed six months follow up after DSG3-CAART infusion. The posters as presented at ASGCT are available at https://www.cabalettabio.com/technology/posters-publications. The data show:
No DLTs, CRS of any grade, or related serious AEs were observed in any subject within three months of DSG3-CAART infusion through cohort A4 (2.5 billion cells).
There was a dose dependent increase in DSG3-CAART persistence through day 29 in cohorts A1 to A4, indicating that DSG3-CAART cells were not eliminated through immune-mediated rejection.
Persistence (AUCd29 and Cmax) in cohort A4 approached the lower end of the range that is observed in clinical trials of anti-CD19 CART combined with lymphodepletion in B-cell malignancies
In cohorts A1 to A3:
Disease activity was clear or almost clear (PDAI 0-1) in 0/9 subjects at screening, 1/9 at pre-infusion, 2/9 at month one, 5/9 at month two, 3/9 at month three, 2/9 at month four, 3/9 at month five and 1/9 at month six after treatment.
Through six months post DSG3-CAART infusion, no clear pattern was observed in changes in anti-DSG3 Ab levels (ELISA) or disease activity (PDAI) in the low dose cohorts where the A3 dose (500 million cells) represents 6.7 to 10% of the ongoing cohort A5 dose (5.0 to 7.5 billion cells).
One subject from cohort A1 was retreated with 500 million cells (the cohort A3 dose) and persistence in the subject was similar to the three subjects who were originally administered the cohort A3 dose, suggesting that there was not immune-mediated clearance of DSG3-CAART cells after retreatment and repeat dosing of patients is possible, if indicated.
Data presented on the company's manufacturing process were as follows:
In cohorts A1-A4, the manufacturing success rate was 100% with functional DSG3-CAART cells manufactured successfully from mPV patient apheresis material.
Infused DSG3-CAART cells exhibited a stem cell or central memory phenotype with a strong positive correlation between the dose of gene modified T cells and post-infusion persistence to day 29.
These data suggest that DSG3-CAART cells are not being eliminated by the pre-existing anti-DSG3 immunity present in mPV.
About Cabaletta Bio
Cabaletta Bio (Nasdaq: CABA) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of engineered T cell therapies that have the potential to provide a deep and durable, perhaps curative, treatment for patients with autoimmune diseases. The CABA™ platform, in combination with Cabaletta Bio's proprietary technology, has advanced a growing pipeline that currently includes potential treatments for patients with mucosal pemphigus vulgaris, MuSK-associated myasthenia gravis, PLA2R-associated membranous nephropathy, mucocutaneous pemphigus vulgaris and hemophilia A with FVIII alloantibodies. Cabaletta Bio's headquarters are located in Philadelphia, PA. For more information, visit www.cabalettabio.com and follow us on LinkedIn.
This press release contains "forward-looking statements" of Cabaletta Bio within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, including without limitation, express or implied statements regarding expectations regarding: Cabaletta's ability to grow its autoimmune-focused pipeline; the progress and results of its DesCAARTes™ Phase 1 trial, including Cabaletta's ability to enroll the requisite number of patients, dose each dosing cohort in the intended manner, and progress the trial; the expected significance and impact around the clinical and translational data updates from cohorts A1 through A3 of the DesCAARTes™ trial, including 3-month safety and 1-month persistence data in cohorts A1 through A4, described herein; the expected timing and significance of the announcement of 28-day safety for cohort A5 and clinical and translational data for cohort A4 in mid-2022; the expectation that Cabaletta may improve outcomes for patients suffering from mPV; Cabaletta's ability to continue progressing in cohort A5, including the planned addition of an enhanced manufacturing process; Cabaletta's ability to escalate dosing as high as 10 to 15 billion cells in a planned future cohort or otherwise; Cabaletta's ability to advance dose escalation in the DesCAARTes™ Phase 1 trial at the current dose ranges for the current cohorts and any projected potential dose ranges for future cohorts, and to optimize its targeted cell therapy; Cabaletta's ability to evaluate, and the potential significance of, the relationship between DSG3-CAART persistence and potential clinical responses in patients with mPV; Cabaletta's ability to safely retreat additional patients and whether Cabaletta will continue to observe a lack of immune-mediated clearance of DSG3-CAART cells after retreatment and repeat dosing of patients; the expectation that Cabaletta Bio may improve outcomes for patients suffering from MuSK MG; plans to initiate patient dosing in an open-label Phase 1 clinical trial to evaluate MuSK-CAART safety and tolerability in MuSK MG patients in 2022; Cabaletta's plans to advance development of its preclinical pipeline; presentation of additional data at upcoming scientific conferences, and other preclinical data; expectations regarding the design, implementation, timing and success of its current and planned clinical trials and the successful completion of nonclinical studies; planned potential timing and advancement of its preclinical studies and clinical trials and related regulatory submissions; ability to optimize the impact of its collaborations on its development programs; the impact of COVID-19 on the timing, progress, interpretability of data, and results of ongoing or planned preclinical and clinical trials; statements regarding the timing of regulatory filings regarding its development programs.
Any forward-looking statements in this press release are based on management's current expectations and beliefs of future events, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from those set forth in or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the risk that signs of biologic activity or persistence may not inform long-term results; Cabaletta's ability to demonstrate sufficient evidence of safety, efficacy and tolerability in its preclinical and clinical trials of DSG3-CAART; the risk that persistence observed with effective CART-19 oncology studies in combination with lymphodepletion is not indicative of, or applicable to, clinical responses in patients with mPV; risks related to clinical trial site activation or enrollment rates that are lower than expected; risks related to unexpected safety or efficacy data observed during clinical studies; risks related to the impact of public health epidemics, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, affecting countries or regions in which we have operations or do business; Cabaletta's ability to retain and recognize the intended incentives conferred by Orphan Drug Designation and Fast Track Designation for DSG3-CAART for improving healing of mucosal blisters in patients with mucosal pemphigus vulgaris; Cabaletta's ability to demonstrate sufficient evidence of safety, efficacy and tolerability in its preclinical and clinical trials of DSG3-CAART; risks related to Cabaletta's ability to protect and maintain its intellectual property position; uncertainties related to the initiation and conduct of studies and other development requirements for its product candidates; the risk that any one or more of Cabaletta's product candidates will not be successfully developed and commercialized; and the risk that the initial or interim results of preclinical studies or clinical studies will not be predictive of future results in connection with future studies. For a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, and other important factors, any of which could cause Cabaletta's actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Cabaletta's most recent annual report on Form 10-K as well as discussions of potential risks, uncertainties, and other important factors in Cabaletta's other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All information in this press release is as of the date of the release, and Cabaletta undertakes no duty to update this information unless required by law.
Anup Marda
investors@cabalettabio.com
Sarah McCabe
sarah.mccabe@sternir.com
Source: Cabaletta Bio
The press releases contained in this section are provided for historical purposes only. The information contained in each press release is accurate only as of the date each press release was originally issued. Cabaletta disavows any obligation to update the information contained in such press releases after the date of their issuance.
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Nina Norstrom
Not a Blueprint: It's the Shoe Prints That Matter
Symbolizing a Journey ─ Learning Lessons ─ Letting Go ─ and Gaining Insight . . . tools that lead to relationships. Relationships are formed with people, alcohol, animals, battlefields, diseases, drugs, environments, and even our emotions. Whether toxic or nontoxic they're an integral part of daily living. Follow Author Nina Norstrom through the journey as she peels off those toxic relationships. The story takes you through the experiences of grief, pain, trauma, and forgiveness. The story weaves lies with love, betrayal with deception and drama with murder. As the shoe prints are molded in and out of a variety of unhealthy relationships, they'll leave behind a blazing trail of lessons. Teaching an ultimate lesson for the meaning of relationships, that builds honesty and compassion. The story in its raw image projects a remarkable voice to the heroic fight and bravery gained when striking back to wipe out the toxicity of deadly relationships. Through its reading, you will discover the importance that life brings many challenges, and that each challenge provides lessons to be learned. Inside the Excerpts, are sneak previews of what's bubbling: Preorders are available for April 5, 2016 DETAILS ABOUT THE JOURNEY Why is the topic so important? What we do in our everyday experiences brings about important life lessons. We're living inside the topic each day we inhale anew breathe. In These days and times, toxicity has settled in the environment. Just think about it: every day we wake up we're on the battlefield fighting a war. And just feeling where there's: good against evil; sons against fathers; daughters against mothers; nations against nations; drugs against diseases; and the list goes on and on.
As an award-winning author, Not a Blueprint: It's the Shoe Prints that Matter is a @bookexcellence Award Finalist! Check it out here: www.bookexcellenceawards.com Over three decades, Norstrom has unmasked the levels of relationships: pain; abuse; emotions, diseases; work environments; trauma; and its poison of unforgiveness. In the artistic world, it is those literary creations that demonstrate a measure of personal growth that magnifies those hurdles conquered - from darkness to survival, even her release from incarceration. While growing and blossoming, she has maintained a healthier lifestyle . . . staying free of unhealthy relationships. Through her experiences, Norstrom has encountered a complete metamorphosis ─ releasing one identity for another. Living inside this transitional lifestyle she states, "I see myself as that long-blooming, rich flower waiting to attract those butterflies. It is there, I've come full circle having realized the dangerous effects of toxicity."
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Broken Vows
There is nothing beautiful about toxicity. When engaging in toxic relationships, take off those blinders! And see it in full color! If you've not read the story book, "Not a Blueprint It's the Shoe Prints that Matter" / "A Journey Through Toxic Relationships," here are some insights learned through the journey: • In a toxic marital relationship, see it for what it's worth. • An intimate relationship with a married man can be extremely toxic. • The character of a person lessens. • Don't become codependent. Be willing to leave a toxic relationship. • Don't be blinded by feelings nor emotions. They both cripple a pure marriage. • What you have become a borrowed relationship. • Once a cheater, always a cheater. • Cheating is a sign of being untrustworthy and disrespectful. • It shows an inability to commit. • You'll always be considered the other woman.
. . . When Craig pulled up in his flashy white Thunderbird convertible, I hadn't seen him since I was around fourteen. And that had been five or six years ago. Now, he'd no longer think of me as Netti's little buddy, but as a woman. I gazed into his brown eyes, bucked wide open. His look gave the impression that he found me appealing. This was going to be the beginning of a great summer! As we stood face-to-face, Craig grinned and asked, "So, you're Nettie's little buddy, huh? I see you're not little no more. How about I take you on a date."
With a bashful smile, I replied, "Yeah, I'd go out with you." Since I had never been on a date, I thought, What should I wear? How should I act? How would he act?
I decided to wear my tight, low-cut red and black mini dress with black fishnet stockings and red and black pumps. This look showed every curve in my tiny physique, enough to catch any man's eye. When I opened the door, his beady little eyes scanned my body. I had grown into a full woman, and it showed. But had I truly reached womanhood? Although it felt real, was it?
These questions are what I'd asked myself. Here is where the story should've ended. But in reality, that's where it all began.should've ended.
That night, Craig and I hung out with his best friend, Eddie, and his girlfriend, Barbara. Eddie was also one of those smooth-talking dudes. He loved to wear those big, wide-brimmed hats, tilted to one side. And this cat strutted like a pimp. On the other hand Barbara appeared to be very mild and humble, even passive. They were such a mismatched couple. For the four of us, it wasn't easy deciding on what to do. But we drove to the lakefront and stayed to watch the sunrise. While there, we watched the sun come up and listened to those old war stories. Don't quite recall heads or tails of what was spoken about those war days, but to buck my eyes when I heard that Barbara and Craig's wife, Renna, were best of friends. They were thicker than thieves. Who could've imagined such a thing? Craig was a married man! Aha, married and out on a date—how bold was he? Netti and I were supposed to be the best of friends, yet she never spoke about her brother being married.
Riding home in the back seat of Craig's car, his hand gently touched my thigh as he whispered sweet nothings in my ear. But he didn't realize this conversation wasn't appropriate. I was pure as the virgin oil. We talked about purification for the next few minutes. Uh-huh, how dare Craig bring Eddie and Barbara in on our conversation, only to laugh at me! As soon as Craig saw the anger upon my face—my scrunched up eyelids, gritted teeth, clenched jaw, and a horrible frown—there was nothing but silence. When it broke, I began to find out more about the man I was with. In his mind, he believed his marriage wasn't truly a marriage.
"Yep, I'm married, but we don't live together. I've not seen or been with her since being home from the Navy. See, it's just like not being married," he said.
Stepping back to reflect on a moment of epiphany.
Yes, I was young, vulnerable, and extremely naïve to have indulged in such an illicit affair. And if there's blame to be shouldered, it's shared between the two of us—me for being vulnerable and naïve, and him for his dishonesty and those broken vows. Most importantly, he was older and should have known better. We'd committed a sinful act, not only against ourselves, but against another as well.
Often, a person releases one guilt only to harbor another. Ending our relationship would have been the righteous and healthiest thing to have done, . . . since marriage vows mustn't be taken lightly. This was truly a lesson I've learned.be taken lightly. This was truly a lesson I've learned.


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Since betting first went online in the 1990's there has been an explosion in the number of gambling sites for you to choose from. Whilst choice is a good thing, it can sometimes make it difficult to find exactly what you're looking for.
This site is the culmination of thousands of hours of research, testing and categorising to bring you an in depth guide to betting online. We cover a variety of different types of bets including sports betting as well as casino, bingo and poker games all of which can be legally done online for real money.
Below you'll find a list of our top recommendations for players in the UK and Europe. Other countries are often accepted as well, but this isn't always the case. For non UK/EU visitors we've written a series of guides which you may find more useful including Australia, Canada and the USA.
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As we mentioned earlier in the page, we cover a variety of different betting topics ranging from betting on sports through to playing casino games. Each topic has it's own section on the site with recommendations of betting websites.
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So, who are we? Based in London in the UK, the team behind the site have decades of experience in the gambling industry between them, covering both online and land based gaming. We run a series of websites offering guides, reviews and general betting wisdom as well as local information sites aimed at people who like to do their gambling in person – such as the UK Casino Guide which provides a directory of land based casinos in the United Kingdom.
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