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A NEW PARTNERSHIP WITH ECOMATE
A NEW PARTNERSHIP WITH ECOMATE https://www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ECOMATE-OK-.jpg 750 463 Quantyx Quantyx //www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Risorsa-1online.png 4 April 2022 4 April 2022
Quantyx Advisors, the European leader of risk management software-as-a-service for the private fund industry, announces today a new partnership with Ecomate, a cloud-based provider of ESG solutions.
Ecomate provides a powerful cloud platform to end clients, where public and private companies can self-assess their ESG scores, get detailed reports on strengths and weaknesses and areas of improvement, monitor development of the ESG ratings over time. The platform is compliant with the current regulation of EU taxonomy and is committed to adapt to any future developments of EU ESG regulation.
Dario Cintioli, Executive Chairman of Quantyx comments:
"We are excited to partner with Ecomate: thanks to their modern technology, our fund management clients can monitor the ESG workflow of their private portfolio companies from a single place, while complying with EU regulation. This is a powerful proposition that will meaningfully expand ESG abilities of private fund managers."
Alan Gallicchio, CEO and Founder of Ecomate adds:
"We are thrilled to join forces with a recognized leader in the provision of services to the private investment community. Our technology and the transparency of our 'open-source' methodologies have the potential to accelerate the adoption of ESG policies and best practice at private and public companies; the partnership with Quantyx accelerates our penetration in the fund management industry, providing a comprehensive and competitive solution for monitoring their portfolio companies."
Quantyx provides risk management services and software to the private fund industry, spanning across all asset classes: private equity, venture capital, private debt, infrastructure, real estate and fund of fund. The company started in 2009 as an outsourcer of the risk management function for General Partners, to become today a European leader with more than 100 clients for its services and software. With operations in Italy and Luxembourg, Quantyx is accelerating its growth, expanding its footprint in Europe and internationally.
About Ecomate
Ecomate is a self-regulated ESG rating agency, developing an innovative B2B SaaS platform driven by an open-standard approach and a RaaS (Rating As A Service) offer. Ecomate uses a panel of independent contributors for the development of its rating methodologies, making them transparent, accountable, objective, peer-reviewed. The combination with modern and scalable cloud technology offers a complete and effective ESG solution, delivering high quality methodology with low cost of ownership.
WELCOME ABOARD DARIO
WELCOME ABOARD DARIO https://www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/dario-cintioli-quantyx.jpg 768 437 Quantyx Quantyx //www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Risorsa-1online.png 2 December 2021 2 December 2021
Quantyx Advisors, the European leader of risk management software-as-a-service for the private fund industry, announces today that Dario Cintioli, formerly MD of Delta at Confluence Technologies, joins the Company as Executive Chairman.
Dario will have an operational role, leading the international expansion, M&A and partnership, while contributing to the definition of product strategy and cooperating with the management team on general company's operations.
Dario Cintioli comments:
"I am thrilled of joining a dynamic and entrepreneurial company, driven by a strong management team. Quantyx recently helped me understanding some of the inner workings of private markets, raising my interest and passion around the subject. Quantyx runs unique and sophisticated risk models for the private asset markets and I am looking forward expanding their commercial and product reach."
Roberto Botter, CEO and co-founder of Quantyx Advisors, welcomes Dario:
"Dario is a renowned risk leader in the financial industry and we are excited to have him joining our management team and chairing Quantyx. Dario will help us consolidate and expand our footprint in Europe and internationally, becoming a decisive factor in further accelerating our growth."
About Quantyx.
Quantyx provides risk management services and software to the private fund industry, spanning across all asset classes: private equity, venture capital, private debt, infrastructure, real estate, fund of fund. The company started in 2009 as an outsourcer of the risk management function for General Partners, to become today a European leader with more than 100 clients for its services and software. With operations in Italy and Luxembourg, Quantyx is accelerating its growth and plans to expand its footprint in Europe and internationally.
About Dario Cintioli.
Dario has spent the last 22 years of its career at Confluence, formerly StatPro. Dario has been a key element in the growth and success of StatPro, leading its operations for the last 5 years before Confluence acquisition. Dario is a risk expert, who started his career in investment banks, trading interest rate derivatives; he created the StatPro Risk Service in RiskMap, the company he founded in 2000 and that he later sold to StatPro in 2003. Dario is also known for having co-founded the open-source project Quantlib (www.quantlib.org), the most used library for pricing financial instruments, globally.
AB-NORMAL TIMES
AB-NORMAL TIMES https://www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/financial-e1611049430340.jpg 800 546 Quantyx Quantyx //www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Risorsa-1online.png 23 December 2020 6 April 2021
The second wave of contagion has arrived and the markets, once again, take no notice. They are not interested in the "here and now" of the real economy, only in the certainty that central banks will do everything they can to save "Wall Street" and governments will do everything they can to save "Main Street". The markets remain in the grip of the "digital revolution" and de-carbonisation mania, but will soon be forced to re-evaluate the "brick economy" as well.
A half-year has passed since the sensational and belated volatility purge of last March, which saw one of the most violent, rapid and partially ephemeral bear markets in financial history, and the "bosses" of Wall Street are tackling the last quarter of the year with the conventional good dose of caution, which limits but does not cancel out a more than justified underlying optimism.
Prudence is part of the physiology of financial storytelling, it is the raw material that fuels healthy upturns; it never disappears, not even when sanity turns into conscious madness. The markets are always "worried" and the current situation is no exception.
On the one hand, in fact, the post-Covid period has inflated a considerable bubble in the segment of the so-called 'gorillas' of the 'new economy' (to use a terminology that was very much in vogue at the turn of the millennium), which feeds the greed of the rediscovered people of online trading and performance anxiety of professional managers. On the one hand, the phenomenon fuels the spectres of memory and historical recourse, while on the other, it garners authoritative justifications[1].
On the other hand, the American presidential elections are looming, the outcome of which remains uncertain and difficult to translate into perspective, regardless of the winner; finally, the news of the pandemic is rampant, with second waves, vaccines appearing and disappearing like mirages in the desert, and predictions on the new or next normal. But what if we were in the midst of an ab-normal? At this point, the reference to Mel Brooks' 1974 masterpiece Frankenstein Junior is inevitable.
As for the fate of the equity markets, an unshakeable but justified underlying optimism remains dominant. This is largely dependent on the reassuring dominance of the Federal Reserve. The sacred institution has long been "technically" chained to the moods and wishes of Wall Street, not the other way around.
If the indicators of "financial stress" soar – the best known of which is the equity risk premium, which rises when markets fall – the Fed responds with increasing immediacy and intensity and the merry-go-round starts again, faster and faster. Despite high volatility, the US stock market is now[2] finding it increasingly difficult to lose even a few percentage points. Never before has the slogan "so much the worse, so much the better" proved so true as it has in recent weeks: if the horizons for the economy and businesses are clouded over, the central banks and governments are immediately left with infinite room for manoeuvre. For the former, in a whisper, many "experts" are even suggesting direct purchases of shares (there is no shame any more…), as the central banks of Japan and Switzerland have been doing for some time.
It is not only the market of Amazon, Apple, Google and company, but also that of the big asset managers and their clients, of Blackrock, Vanguard, Goldman or JPMorgan, who pull the strings in Washington and 'catch', as always, the controllers.
Central banks have kindly given us negative rates and yields
bonds on ice. A gift for whom? Certainly for the new rentiers of equity investment; the others, those accustomed to "clipping coupons", should prepare to change their ways or go through an interminable via crucis, paved with negative real rates and inflation that will slowly return.
The time of revenge for public spending is fast approaching. In the eurozone, the Recovery Fund and more are on the way. In the US, the first round of "truly excellent and innovative"[3] aid will soon be joined by others to the tune of USD 1600-2000 billion. For Powell, the real risk is that of spending too little, not too much. Even the Monetary Fund[4] is throwing fiscal austerity policies overboard and is calling for a boom in public investment in developed countries, starting with the modernisation of crumbling infrastructure.
But if this is the frame of reference, schematic as it may be, there really is no alternative to equity investment: the acronym "TINA", "there is no alternative", is precisely CNBC's mantra.
But where and how? The Chinese figures are impressive: the recovery there has been driven, as always, by investment, not subsidies. China, Japan and Korea are coming out of the pandemic well and are excellent solutions for a minimum of geographical diversification in equities. Moreover, Beijing's sovereign bonds, with yields of 3%, are good for part of the bond portfolio.
Growth sectors and markets (US and technology) deserve less exposure than in the past, precisely because some caution is called for, but without exaggeration.
For the last few enthusiasts who like to go against the wind (the 'contrarians'), the 'value' index par excellence is the UK index (the FT 100 capitalises less than Apple alone) and, for the more courageous, that of Piazza Affari.
But the time is also coming for infrastructure, and not only for alternative energy, as public investment will be back on the agenda.
We will see what happens to the dollar after the elections, but the much-vaunted depreciation is yet to be proven. Gold, the yen and the Swiss franc remain points of reference, both for the dark times and in the long run, should real inflation arrive to reduce the real value of the mountain of debt which, tirelessly, continues to grow.
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[1] Carlyle Digital revolution.
[2] The volatility wake up call for investors, El Erian.
[3] Powell says too littlestimulusis worse than toomuch.
[4] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2020/09/30/october-2020-fiscal-monitor.
THE ENIGMATIC "NEW NORMAL"
THE ENIGMATIC "NEW NORMAL" https://www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/helena-lopes-RgPQNvoIcdg-unsplash.jpg 1000 569 Quantyx Quantyx //www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Risorsa-1online.png 23 December 2020 6 April 2021
In the 'post-Covid' world, irresistible and partly unpredictable forces are at work: it is the 'next normal'. Everything is changing with accelerated speed in a framework in which, at least on a business level, the winners take everything, even more than before, and the losers either disappear, or survive on the margins, subsidised by the state. After the wage, comes the citizenship bonus.
There is a part of us that runs faster and faster to survive or prosper. For the rest of us, we are left with rents for the smartest, public handouts or expulsion from the market. How long can this last?
The behaviour patterns of companies, the state and households are being transformed. Consumer demand and the supply model of more flexible companies is undergoing a metamorphosis. Underlying it all is the acceleration towards digital adoption, both in the BTC and BTB worlds.
According to McKinsey[1], the factors shaping the future are the evolution of spending behaviour, the state, which is increasingly 'sovereign'.
Let us not be influenced only by the macro data certifying the collapse of consumer and investment spending and the surge in the household savings rate. Several sectors are booming.
Investment in technology is galloping, as is demand for furniture and home devices. Businesses are spending, anticipating the perhaps permanent effects of the pandemic: cloud computing, cybersecurity, machine learning and data mining remain the focus. Households are spending (see graph, Source: McKinsey) on new connections, broadband, innovative devices, online services and products, gaming, but also tables, chairs and sofas. Above all, governments spend money that they "create" with debts that may never be repaid. But this is how it is today.
Work organisation and company logistics are changing. The resilience of business processes is increased, with a more considered assessment of the underlying risks: supply chains are secured, onshoring is back in fashion, financially weaker business partners are protected, cash levels are increased through new long-term debt and divestment of non-essential assets.
In the meantime, there is an accelerated transition to remote working[2] (see graph, source: McKinsey), which implies the adoption of new organisational structures focused on effectiveness and speed in decision-making.
The emphasis is on cutting hierarchical levels and "flat" organisational structure, taking responsibility and empowering talent to focus on priorities. Radical flexibility is needed to accelerate 'time to market'.
The raw material of the companies of the future, the 'human resources', the Marxian 'workforce' of post-modernity, is participating despite itself in the never-ending challenge based on the search for talent, with ever lower geographical barriers: it will always be possible to find someone 'smarter' than you behind a home workstation wherever they are, from Alaska to Vietnam.
While populist politics rants about the banality of 'one is worth one', the world of work, at least at the level of global corporations, seems to be going in a completely different direction. On the other hand, in Italy, for decades a 'corporation free' country, who cares?
The 'next normal' is Wal Mart, which is joining Microsoft in bidding for Tik Tok's US business. The giant of traditional commerce is looking for space online, imagining the video platform for teenagers as a means of previewing the evolving tastes of consumers of the future, developing advertising and online sales, possibly creating its own alternative ecosystem to Amazon and E-Bay, a digital marketplace in which to bring together the products of its suppliers. And the deal is on the table at the behest of Trump, the standard-bearer of national interest, border closure and economic protectionism.
After the "L", the "V", the "U" and the "W", some storyteller has invented the "K" shaped recovery: some go up, some come down. The pandemic, like and better than leverage, amplifies the competitive advantages of the oligopolistic masters of the digital economy and related sectors. The 2020 meteorite drastically separates losers and winners with activities in even contiguous sectors in a seemingly arbitrary manner. Many had bet on commercial real estate: the winners were those who bet on the warehouses of goods that feed the online distribution network; the losers were those who invested in infrastructures supporting tourist or corporate mobility.
The consequences are also radical for deciphering financial market trends. Macro analyses, if they were ever of any use at all, lose their value. This is all the more so given the turnaround of central banks (financial repression ancillary to deficit financing) and public policies, with the state once again assuming, after at least four decades, a key role, now undisputed, of support, direction, investment and redistribution (see chart opposite). In short, a remake of the old 'tax & spend' of the[3] 1970s, which some claim to repaint as an 'innovative' state. We shall see if it is capable of producing 'good' debt [4]or, as has always been the case in our latitudes, 'bad' debt.
In the stock market, the microeconomic narrative wins, the separation between the ecosystem of digital giants and (almost) everything else. It is the 'inconceivable' world of the continuous growth of 'network' and stock market returns; the oxymoron of 'parallel divergences' comes to mind: in the long run, (almost) all stock prices rise, but some always rise more than others, regardless of GDP, rates, exchange rates, governments and so on. On the other hand, over the last thirty months, while sales and profits of the FANG+ index have grown by 80 and 140% respectively, those of the MSCI ACWI global index have remained flat and fallen by 20%.
It is hard for the elderly not to look back at historical events. The climate is very reminiscent of the "TMT" bubble of 2000 (see graphs): at that time, too, the clamorous divergence between the valuations of stocks linked to the Internet, broadband expansion and the convergence of media and telecommunications and those of the so-called "old economy" was macroscopic, but justified by many. It must be said that the situations are only apparently comparable. Back then we were faced with thousands of start-ups, very few of which survived (including Amazon and Google); today we are faced with the global domination of apparently unassailable giants. We shall see if the ending is different.
[1] McKinsey & Company, Covid-19, Briefing Materials updated 6th July 2020.
[2] A recent market survey carried out by the British company CCS confirmed that more than 34% of respondents (730 top managers) expect more than 50% of the workforce to be able to work in smart working in the future.
[3] "Tax and spend is the new economic orthodoxy", Financial Times, https://on.ft.com/2C12GdS
[4] Indirect reference to Mario Draghi's much-quoted recent speech at the 2020 Communion and Liberation meeting.
MARKETS: BROADWAY OR WALL STREET?
MARKETS: BROADWAY OR WALL STREET? https://www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/helena-lopes-RgPQNvoIcdg-unsplash-1.jpg 1000 569 Quantyx Quantyx //www.quantyx.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Risorsa-1online.png 23 December 2020 6 April 2021
There is Covid, but the markets do not seem to see it: they are looking ahead, amidst soaring economic data and economists' forecasts that are perhaps too pessimistic. The balance is precarious, and volatility remains too high. As always, the signals are contradictory. Stock markets are experiencing a "V-shaped" recovery that remains highly uncertain: equity investments should be viewed with greater caution, even in a context where equities and liquidity remain the reference assets. There is a growing feeling that Europe, with better control of the pandemic and fewer political risks (US presidential elections looming), could finally do better than Wall Street.
Broadway or Wall Street?
It is a new spectacle, which surprises us every day, despite the fact that the score is always the same: we are only going up, supported by the Central Banks (and, on this occasion, by government activism at planetary level), in good times (expanding economies) and bad (recession watered down by policy makers).
It is estimated that over the next two years, even in the least pessimistic scenario, more than five years of real growth in per capita income would be lost in many advanced economies: this would be the fourth most severe recession in the last 150 years, after 1914, 1930-32 and 1945-46 (dates associated with two world wars and the rise of totalitarian regimes). The hypothesis seems irrelevant to the masters of the markets, who look ahead and see different scenarios. Assuming and not conceding that financial asset prices still have a predictive meaning. There is no shortage of contradictions, and explanations and justifications that bring everything back to rationality[1] abound.
Interest rates, still at their lowest in years, mostly negative even in nominal terms, would signal continued deflationary pressures. Or would it? Central banks now even manipulate ETFs that replicate the junk bond market; in Japan, the BoJ has been buying equity ETFs for years.
Conversely, the "equity risk premium" implicit in the Standard & Poors 500 index, which has returned to levels not far from 4%, would "in normal times" reflect expectations of sustained and stable economic growth, perhaps even inflation, not an economy hit by a tsunami. But these are not normal times and, above all, the "new normal post-Covid", apart from the most obvious trends (and therefore taken for granted by the markets), is still to be imagined.
The fact remains that we are here to record a quarter with Wall Street posting +18.5% (but the DAX did even better, see table below), the best performance since Q4 1998, better even than Q2 2009.
The comparison between the three periods is not accidental, there is a thread linking them linked to the transformation of the Central Banks: from lenders of last resort to illiquid but solvent counterparties, they have turned into puppeteers of the markets (the "godfathers"), endowed with unlimited capital, conscious agents of the mutation of a financial ecosystem now dominated by the great managers of global capital (the "masters").
The 1998 episode followed the rescue of the famous hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, the 'Nobel Prize fund', the first to use leveraged arbitrage on a large scale, with tens of thousands of open positions financed by repo agreements. [2]The 1998 episode followed the rescue of the famous hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, the first to use leveraged arbitrage on a large scale, with tens of thousands of open positions financed by repo agreements. Its impending insolvency threatened to paralyse the money markets on Wall Street. A foretaste of what would happen ten years later. The bailout, hastily organised by the New York Federal Reserve, with the participation of all the major US[3] investment banks, was followed by an overwhelming injection of liquidity[4] that took the stock markets back to their highest levels (the S&P 500 rose by 21.5% in the last quarter of the year), starting the run-up to the great 'TMT' bubble that[5] exploded in the spring of 2000.
The second quarter of 2009 saw [6]the start of what was to become the longest-lasting bull market in history, which lasted until February of this year. In September 2008, the failure to rescue Lehman Brothers accelerated the crisis in the global financial system, which had been corrupted by the excesses of structured finance and speculative overexposure to real estate. The Federal Reserve and the US Treasury managed to save the system even then, weaving a rescue net based on moral hazard. After Lehman was allowed to fail, all other financial institutions were bailed out and the first quantitative easing operation was launched. This was followed in the next decade by many other operations by the central banks of the main advanced countries. It is no coincidence that the term 'QE infinity'[7] has been used.
The second quarter of 2020 was no different (see graph). But each time the stakes, and the risks, get higher[8]. With the arrival of the Coronavirus meteorite, which caused the fastest and deepest recession in living memory, the Monetary Authorities were very quick, in the two central weeks of March, to orchestrate an intervention of exceptional intensity and effectiveness, aimed at nipping market tensions in the bud (skyrocketing volatility and soaring spreads); at the same time, governments also intervened, for once in direct (and we shall see how temporary) support for household income and corporate liquidity. The market immediately took note of this and reacted accordingly.
Who will pay the bill, and how?
In the mid-2020s, a year that will go down in history, the impact of ongoing economic policy interventions in the major economies is far greater than in the 2008 – 2009 period. Fiscal initiatives alone imply an average worsening of budget deficits by around 8% in 2020, with estimates still very divergent (see charts).
Monetary policy interventions were the most rapid – more and more often now Central Banks are filling gaps in the responsibility and proactivity of governments – and the most significant in terms of size. The result of the coordinated activism of the major Central Banks (G3 countries) has made available to the market an increase in their balance sheet assets of some $4.4 trillion, or 10.7% of their countries' total GDP. The net result is an increase in G3 central bank assets of 23% over the course of 2020 and corresponds to more than 3.5 times the global liquidity expansion experienced at the time of the Great Financial Crisis. In addition, the Monetary Authorities are ensuring that interest rates will remain at zero for what market participants see as an infinite amount of time. [9]What alternative do institutional investors and their private clients (who belong to the highest fifth percentile of the wealth distribution) have but to pour a flood of money into ETFs [10]representing the major stock indices that then trickles down to the riskiest and least liquid assets?
The combined effect of the growth in central banks' balance sheet assets and the surge in the private prudential savings rate is causing the greatest expansion of liquidity in recent history (see graph). This liquidity, in one way or another, continues to flow to the financial markets and stagnates there, encountering countless obstacles that prevent it from flowing to the real economy. [11]
The objective of reflating the economy, so dear to the Central Banks as to be unrealistic, is moving further and further away, and is only having an effect on financial asset values. Real inflation, assuming and not conceding that it is a desirable objective (once the genie is out of the bottle it becomes uncontrollable), will start with the direct monetary financing of public deficits: we will get there, sooner rather than later, when savers understand that investing in government bonds, with increasingly negative real yields, has become the classic trap for frogs immersed in the pot of cold water on the cooker.
Here and now: the immediate market outlook
The perennial battle between the bulls and the bears became fiercer in June, with volatility remaining fairly high (VIX stable above 35). As always in recent years, the cyclical "value" sectors' attempt to recover seems to be already losing steam.
On the other hand, the improvement in the performance of European markets seems to be more solid than that of the US, despite the stainless momentum of the technology sector. Uncertainty also conditioned the movements of other reference assets: the dollar, after a brief period of weakening, stabilised at 1.12 against the euro; gold continued its moderate positive trend; oil stabilised, pending positive news on the demand front, while currencies and bonds of emerging countries remained chronically weak.
The trend in the main risk-off indicators, US treasuries, continued to signal the expectation of an uncertain economic recovery (30-year yields fell further from 1.6% to 1.4% over the month, while 10-years returned to the 0.6% zone, with implied real interest rates expected to be between -0.8% and -1%). The reliability of these indicators is extremely doubtful, for reasons already mentioned: prices are literally made by the Federal Reserve, which continually intervenes with words ("forward guidance") and deeds (purchases on the market, including the junk segment).
Wall Street's temporary stall reflects the dichotomy between nowcast indicators signalling a strong recovery in consumption, activity and mobility post lockdown and the still worsening medium-term outlook.
The gradual reopening of activity fuelled a sharp rebound in the coincident PMI indicators of economic activity in both manufacturing and services. The latest IHS manufacturing data from early July, very close to the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, even saw China and France surpass that mark.
In advanced countries, household sentiment indicators are soaring, not least because many jobs are only temporarily lost: immediate government support has had a positive impact on household incomes. However, uncertainty reigns supreme: as time has gone by, tempers have cooled as there is growing evidence that the pandemic is not yet under control, as outbreaks have rekindled everywhere, and as infections have surged in US Sun Belt states (see chart) and South America. About 40% of US households see the reopening process either suspended or reversed.
The medium-term economic outlook remains hazy, but clearly worsening, and is subject to extraordinary variability compared to 'central' expectations.
The Monetary Fund has revised down its 2020 global growth forecast from -3% to -4.9% compared to April, with a recovery in 2021 of 4.8% (see graph). The World Bank "sees black", with -5.2% followed by +4.2%. The OECD is even more pessimistic: in the base scenario it estimates a 6% squeeze this year, followed by a 5.1% recovery; in the most negative scenario,
which foresees a second pandemic episode at the end of 2020, global economic activity would contract by 7.6% this year and remain well below pre-crisis levels at the end of 2021.
It remains to be seen how reliable the estimation models used (essentially the same for everyone) are in the face of an exogenous shock of this magnitude and the truly impressive reactions of policy makers. The impression is that the peak of pessimism has been reached, and that the ex post outcomes will be less catastrophic than is currently expected.
The markets, given the apparent valuation levels[12] (opinions differ as always), seem to be discounting a rather rapid recovery. This scenario would see economic activity recovering to the pre-covid level expected by the end of the year and profits more or less fully recovered by the second half of 2021. The alternative scenario, the one espoused so far by most international institutions, sees these targets pushed forward by 12 or even 18 months.
All in all, the guidelines proposed in recent months remain sustainable.
The preference for equity exposure, sustained mainly by the stimulus provided by policy makers (which will regain vigour and brutal incisiveness if a possible resurgence of the pandemic were to occur) remains valid, especially in the absence of credible investment alternatives, but greater caution should be exercised in view of the greater risks that characterise the US market, which remains the main global benchmark.
Washington and Wall Street: dangerous relations.
First of all, the medium-term economic outlook could worsen further due to the pandemic, which is out of control in the southern states: according to the OECD, US GDP will fall by 7.3% (8.5% in the worst scenario) in 2020, with a recovery of 4.3% (1.9%) in 2021. These expectations are much worse than in April.
Then there is the issue of the glaring asymmetry that now characterises the main Wall Street indices, dominated by the capitalisation of a very few digital multinationals (see graph). How long this situation, in some ways aberrant, will last remains a mystery. The absolute prevalence of the sectors that represent the present and future engine in terms of technological innovation and the 'green' revolution is justified, but the measure has been exceeded.
In proposito citiamo testualmente un noto analista di borsa statunitense che, di recente, ha ben rappresentato i possibili (dicotomici) sviluppi: "Last Wednesday, the Nasdaq composite exceeded by 2% its pre-Covid-19 high of 9817, set on February 19, but then fell back sharply. If the Nasdaq now rebounds above last week's 10,000 level, history suggests that the bull market will resume, and many more intrinsically worthless companies will soar to unimaginable heights. If, on the other hand, the outbreak of madness on Nasdaq turns out to mark a double top, the post-Covid equity bubble could deflate very quickly and the next big event for investors could be a test of the March lows. Which will it be? I have no idea, but I am pretty sure that market psychology, rather than monetary policy or economic data, will decide the answer".
However, the speed of recovery and technical market issues are likely to take second place to political events: the presidential elections are fast approaching, with Trump about 14 percentage points behind Biden in the polls. In the coming months we can therefore expect all kinds of things from the outgoing president, on his favourite battlegrounds: the leading rhetoric at home, focused on the mantra "low & order" and that of continuous international provocation, with the focus of the crosshairs this time on Europe, without neglecting China and the border countries. The first steps have already been seen: the Administration has suspended negotiations with the EU on the Digital Tax Plan and blocked any attempt at tax reform that might affect digital multinationals, threatening retaliation if the EU goes ahead. Meanwhile, Washington is considering new tariffs worth around $3.1 billion on a wide range of products exported by France, Germany, Spain and the UK, in retaliation to EU subsidies to Airbus. With China, it is thought that Potus may throw out last year's agreement and raise tariffs again.
Apparently the Wall Street bosses, who love continuity, especially when it is pro-big business, are hoping for a second term (however dangerous it may turn out to be). The Biden alternative, assuming he keeps his promises (which is always doubtful) and has a majority in the Senate, could be "punitive". It is hard to imagine that a democratic president would not intervene to try to contain if not reduce the great advantages accumulated by one per cent of the population over the last thirty years and the oligopolistic power of global corporations. Significant fiscal interventions will be necessary both for corporations and for the wealthiest, also to contain the budget deficit that is estimated to be between 13 and 16% of GDP in 2020.
In conclusion, despite the Federal Reserve's relentless activism, US markets may be less attractive to international investors than in the recent past.
Brussels, safer port?
Against this backdrop, a rebalancing towards European assets (in addition to Japan and the Asian tigers) is appropriate and is already under way, supported by recent economic trends and the recovery of credibility of European institutions. While it is true that medium-term expectations are still negative[13], the balance of power must also be
tipped towards the much improved economic data and the management of the pandemic, which is much more efficient and less erratic than in the US. But the decisive factor is the signals coming from Brussels and Berlin. The European institutions have finally shown a surprising capacity to react, thanks to Chancellor Merkel's turnaround, by defining how the ESM is to be used and, above all, by approving the "Next Generation EU", a maxi plan for recovery worth 750 billion euros, 500 billion of which in the form of contributions and 250 billion in loans. The Fund is linked to the new EU budget 2021-2027 (the "multiannual financial framework"), which has a total scope of 1,850 billion.
However, the European Commission's proposal was not unanimously approved by the 27 member states at the EU Council meeting on 18-19 June due to opposition from the 'frugal countries'. It was decided to postpone everything until mid-July. In spite of the difficulties, the impression is that, with the agreement of France and Germany, the Recovery Fund could get under way and that it could represent an epoch-making turning point, the birth of true European budgetary sovereignty.
We will see, in mid-July, how it will end.
Milan, 2 July 2020
Enrico Ascari
[1] As has always been the case in the past before the subsequent bitter acknowledgements.
[2] LTCM's principals included Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, who were awarded the Nobel Prize for economics in 1997, as well as a number of leading figures from the Salomon Brothers bond house.
[3] Except Lehman Brother, who refused to participate and perhaps paid the price ten years later.
[4] It then became fashionable to use the periphrasis 'Greenspan put' to indicate the then Fed Governor's propensity to intervene to 'save' the markets (the 'put' was first activated with the 1987 crash).
[5] The acronym TMT stood for technology, media, telecommunication.
[6] The Anglo-Saxon specialist press shamelessly spoke of the 'end of the market' and the 'death of capitalism'.
[7] If the Central Banks' purchases of securities at maturity are renewed and subscribed to an increasing extent, with a continuous growth of the balance sheet assets, they are in fact "printing money" in a covert way (subscribing to increasing shares of securities issued by the Treasury).
[8] This is also because for years now, the players have been eating their leaves and the golden rule for winning on the stock exchange has become that of buying on every downturn (even if the timing remains difficult to interpret).
[9] "We're not thinking about raising rates. We're not even thinking about raising rates," Fed Governor Powell recently said, certifying that at least until the end of 2022 interest rates will remain on ice.
[10] It should be noted that these instruments are increasingly issued and managed by global asset managers (Blackrock, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.), who have by now consolidated an oligopoly that also indirectly exerts an enormous power of conditioning on the US Administration.
[11] It has to be said that expanding economic sectors require high knowledge rates but low capital intensity. The picture may change in the future if the expected large-scale infrastructural interventions and the green conversion of fossil fuels take place.
[12] The graph on the left shows a scenario of the expected earnings performance of the S&P 500 in a historical comparison; the graph on the right (source: Goldman Sachs) shows a historical comparison of various valuation metrics to demonstrate that the US market is overvalued, but not to an alarming degree.
[13] For the ECB, the Eurozone's GDP is seen as falling by 8.7% in 2020 followed by a recovery of 5.2%, for the IMF it is -8%; the OECD, in the base scenario, assumes a fall of -9.1% in 2020 followed by a recovery of +6.5% in 2021; in the worst scenario it is -11.5 and +3.5%. Goldman Sachs is not far behind, hypothesising -11% for the EU, France, Spain, Italy between -13 and -14%, and Germany at -9%.
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Cal tells Grace that Ben is helping people and that he wants to be like his dad.
Scene shifts to Cal's bedroom where he is building a log cabin. .
GRACE: Hey, kiddo. How was your day with Auntie Mick?
MICHAELA: Yeah? She say anything about how your dad's doing? Eating a lot of TV dinners?
CAL: Dad's okay. He's out helping people.
GRACE: Yeah, that's your dad.
CAL: I want to be like him. I want to help people, too.
Posted on Jan 14, 2019 Jan 20, 2019 by Manifest828.comPosted in Episode HighlightsTagged 111 - Contrails, Cal, featured, Grace.


has a lot to do with my t.r.o.u.b.l.e post below.
these photos were taken while brian was working at our dining room table.
what our little man likes to do is climb up into the chair you are working in.
he is always testing the limits of gravity.
he falls all the time.
we all watch him like hawks, but he is sneaky.
he knows he's not supposed to be climbing.
and i saw elliot standing in and looking eye level at me from a high chair.
he was standing big and proud, but he said, "uh. oh." out loud when he saw me.
well, the end of this story is not so cute.
and he fell from the chair, right onto his front tooth.
do you know how much gums can bleed?
brian put the tooth in milk and said we had two hours to put it back in.
i'm sorry, where in the world does he know things like this??!
but they tried. it's now a little longer than it's neighbor and protrudes forward a bit.
it's highly likely that it could come out again.
but the bonding between the two in the middle has already come off.
i'm not happy about that thought.
or broken a bone with any of the other kids.
this kid certainly is keeping us on our knees.


In a recent survey conducted by a software company on how useful it is to write a business plan, it was concluded that of those who invested time and resources to write a business plan, 64% were able to grow their businesses, compared to 43 percent of the companies that didn't. Additionally, entrepreneurs with a professionally written business model were more likely to secure the funding they needed.
We spend a lot of time talking about our business ideas but if your fundamentals are out of whack, then so is your "great" idea! This usually happens when we are not clear about the goals and visions of our business model and how it is going to impact the lives of millions. An online business plan can take ideas from the entrepreneur, put the related facts on paper and provide a roadmap to take action.
When it comes to explaining your business model to a potential investor or even to your family and friends to test the waters, it is important to connect your product story with the problems of your target audience that you are going to solve. It is important to ensure that at every level of growth planned for the next five years or so, the experience and quality that you offer to your customers is at par. Only then you will be able to not just write an impressive business plan, but also be able to establish a successful business.
Let's discuss 6 critical elements of building a strong business model and how you can include these in your pitch deck.
Where will your business idea start?
This section of the business model should be a concise overview of your business idea. How did it start? What made you come up with this idea? How passionate are you about this new venture? This is where you are required to step into the shoes of a storyteller and speak about your product and your goals succinctly and accurately. The objective is to draw readers' attention so they want to learn more about your plan.
This is your chance to look into your competition, showcase your industry knowledge and summarize the sales and marketing strategy. Your progress graph should place a detailed analysis of how you plan to grow your business, promote products and enter the market. An explanation of operational plans and SWOT analysis will show that you have considered opportunities and contingencies at all levels.
What metrics will help you track the growth?
How do you measure your company's growth? Running a successful business requires you to develop business metrics, also known as KPIs (Key Performance Indicators). These metrics display a measurable value that indicates the overall success of a company or its business goals. In this section, you're required to bullet down business metrics that you will track to show how your business is performing in various departments. Since there are hundreds of KPIs to track performance, sticking to the right ones, the ones that suit your business goals, will help add value to your company's development.
How will you create value for customers?
This section of the business model can be summed up in three simple words - What you're selling?
Include a detailed description of how your product or service is designed to benefit customers. What is the life cycle of your product, how is it different from that of competitors in the market, and how will you acquire your products? Keep in mind that when it comes to writing product section in the business plan, the focus should be on the benefits that your product or service will be providing and how it will fix a problem of your customers. Be clear and concise. Avoid being too technical while explaining the functionalities of your product. Write as if you are talking to a layman. It should be customer-oriented and service driven.
What channels you plan to use to market and sell to your customers.
Business is all about bringing a steady stream of customers through various channels that in return allow you to plan and invest better. Depending upon the size of your business, it is important to find the right channels to reach out to your potential customers and that's exactly what you are required to cover in this section. While creating a marketing plan focus on your target market and answer questions like who your customers are? Who are your competitors? What strategies are you likely to implement to set yourself apart from your competitor? Your marketing strategies should propel a direct and dramatic impact on sales, bringing in a healthy stream of traction, as well as revenue. This is where you can win or lose your potential investors while pitching a business idea. So make sure that you highlight all the advantages of pursuing particular activities in this domain.
What will be the revenue stream of the business?
This particular section of your business model answers the most important questions - how capable is your business idea to earn its mazuma? In simple terms, how will you make money? This might feel like a game of maze when you are first starting out, but with a bit of brainstorming, you can easily find alternate ways to bring some money into the system to at least keep the business bootstrapped. The revenue model will also help you make the necessary adjustments in strategies and sources of incomes that work best for your business and industry type.
When done right, a business model lays out clear directions for building a meaningful and profit-generating business. With the right tool, you can easily create a business plan that covers all the essential elements of an effective, investor-worthy business plan.
Click here to start writing a business plan for your next disruptive idea. It's damn easy and fun!


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2021 Sundance Film Festival Short Film Tour [In-Person Only]
Northwest Film Forum
Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:00 PM Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:00 PM Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:00 PM Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:00 PM Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:00 PM Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:00 PM Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:30 PM Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:00 PM Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:00 PM
Please note that online sales end two hours before each showtime. Tickets will still be available at our box office unless it specifically indicates 'Sold Out'.
NWFF Member $7.00 ($8.34: w/service fee) Sales Ended
Senior/Child/Student $10.00 ($11.49: w/service fee) Sales Ended
General $13.00 ($14.64: w/service fee) Sales Ended
NWFF Member $7.00 ($8.34 w/service fee) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Senior/Child/Student $10.00 ($11.49 w/service fee) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
General $13.00 ($14.64 w/service fee) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Will-Call (no delivery fee)
Wed Jan 12: 7.00pm PDT
Thu Jan 13: 7.00pm PDT
Fri Jan 14: 7.00pm PDT
Sat Jan 15: 4.00pm PDT, 7.00pm PDT
Sun Jan 16: 4.00pm PDT, 7.30pm PDT
$13 General Admission
$10 Student/Child/Senior
$7 Member
*** Public safety notice ***
NWFF patrons will be required to double-mask while in the building. Disposable masks are available at the door for those who need them. To be admitted, patrons ages 5+ will also be required to present EITHER proof of COVID-19 vaccination OR a negative result from a COVID-19 test administered within the last 48 hours by an official testing facility. Boosters are strongly recommended, though not required for entry.
NWFF is adapting to evolving recommendations to protect the public from COVID-19. Read more about their policies regarding cleaning, masks, and capacity limitations at bit.ly/nwffcovidsafety
The 2021 Sundance Film Festival Short Film Tour is a 95-minute theatrical program of 7 short films selected from the 2021 Sundance Film Festival program, widely considered the premier showcase for short films and the launchpad for many now-prominent independent filmmakers for close to 40 years. Including fiction, documentary and animation from around the world, the 2021 program offers new audiences a taste of what the Festival offers and shows that short films transcend traditional storytelling.
The Festival has always treated short films with the highest regard and gives a home to both established and new filmmakers with shorts for audiences to discover and celebrate. From documentary to animation, narrative to experimental, the abbreviated form is made for risk-taking. Short films are a significant and popular way artists can connect with audiences.
The Festivals Short Film Program has long been established as a place to discover talented directors, such as past alumni Andrea Arnold, Lake Bell, Damien Chazelle, Destin Daniel Cretton, Jay and Mark Duplass, Cary Joji Fukunaga, Debra Granik, Rashaad Ernesto Green, Reinaldo Marcus Green, Todd Haynes, Lynne Ramsay, Dee Rees, Joey Soloway, Taika Waititi, and many others.
Film Program:
BJ's Mobile Gift Shop
(Jason Park, US)
A young Korean-American hustler runs throughout the city of Chicago making sales out of his mobile gift shop. U.S. Fiction
Jason Park was born and raised in the city of Chicago. Jason Park pursued filmmaking after a year of missionary work on the island of Palau. Hes made several short films that have played in numerous international film festivals and has been selected for programs like Film Independents Project Involve and the Sundance Institute Screenwriters Intensive. He currently resides in Los Angeles, where he is developing his first feature film.
Black Bodies
(Kelly Fyffe-Marshall, Canada)
A Black man laments as he comes face-to-face with the realities of being Black in the 21st century. International Fiction
Kelly Fyffe-Marshall is a director, screenwriter, and social activist whose work includes award-winning short film Haven (2018) and two-part short film Black Bodies and Marathon (2020). Marathon was released online and has amassed more than 25,000 views. Black Bodies was selected for the 2020 Toronto International Film Festival and awarded the Shawn Mendes Foundation Changemaker Award for social change through film.
The Criminals
(Serhat Karaaslan, France, Romania & Turkey)
In a town in Turkey, a young couple is looking for some privacy. They are rejected from the hotels because they do not have a marriage certificate. When they think they have found a way, the situation gets out of hand. The Criminals received the 2021 Sundance Film Festival Special Jury Prize for Writing. International Fiction
Serhat Karaaslan has directed one feature film and several shorts. His short films were screened and awarded in major festivals like the Toronto International Film Festival and Festival del film Locarno. His debut film, Passed by Censor (Cannes Cinefondation Residence), premiered at the 2019 Karlovy Vary International Film Festival, where it received the critics award, and won several awards at festivals around the world.
KKUM
(Kang-min Kim, South Korea & US)
My mothers dreams have always been strong premonitions for important moments in my life. I rely on her dreams more than any religion. Animation
Kang-min Kim was born in Incheon, South Korea, in 1979. In 2011 he graduated from the California Institute of the Arts. He is currently working as a freelance artist.
To Know Her
(Natalie Chao, US & Hong Kong)
A poetic exploration of the cameras gaze and a familys relationship with the filmmakers mother. Non-Fiction
Natalie A. Chao is a filmmaker and cinematographer who completed her bachelors degree in film production at University of Southern California. Born, raised, and currently based in Hong Kong, she is interested in bridging the gap between realism and poetry in order to tell stories through a more engaged and intentional gazeone that can map out our memories, not drawing lines between camera and subject, identity and politics. She is currently a 2020 Sundance Ignite x Adobe Fellow.
(Melody C. Roscher, US)
Amidst a racially tense Southern wedding, a biracial bride has the chance to confront her estranged Black father after accidentally hiring his wedding band to perform. U.S. Fiction
Melody C. Roscher hails from Richmond, Virginia, and New York City, and she is developing her feature directorial debut, Bird in Hand. In addition to directing, shes half of the producing team The Wonder Club, with Craig Shilowich. Together, they are producing Robin Comisars upcoming feature Great Choice. Roscher recently produced Christine, James White, Creative Control, and Simon Killer, as well as line-producing HBOs The Jinx.
Wiggle Room
(Sam Guest & Julia Baylis, US)
Determined to save her wheelchair ramp from repossession, Daisy confronts the shady insurance agent who owes her money. Wiggle Room received the 2021 Sundance Film Festival Special Jury Prize for Acting. U.S. Fiction
Sam Guest and Julia Baylis are an American-Canadian directing duo who collaborate under their production company Anarene Films. Their projects have been featured on Dazed, The FADER, and NPR. Wiggle Room is their first narrative film.
About the Sundance Film Festival
The Sundance Film Festival is a public program of the nonprofit Sundance Institute which connects audiences to artists in igniting new ideas, discovers original voices, and builds a community dedicated to independent storytelling. The Institute has supported such projects as Sorry to Bother You, Eighth Grade, Wont You Be My Neighbor?, Hereditary, RBG, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, The Big Sick, Top of the Lake, Winters Bone, Dear White People, Brooklyn, Little Miss Sunshine, 20 Feet From Stardom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Fruitvale Station, Im Poppy, America to Me, Leimert Park, Spring Awakening, A Gentlemans Guide to Love and Murder and Fun Home.
The Sundance Film Festival has introduced global audiences to some of the most groundbreaking films of the past three decades, including Clemency, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Zola, On the Record, Boys State, The Farewell, Honeyland, One Child Nation, The Souvenir, The Infiltrators, Sorry to Bother You, Wont You Be My Neighbor?, Hereditary, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, The Big Sick, Mudbound, Fruitvale Station, Whiplash, Brooklyn, Precious, The Cove, Little Miss Sunshine, An Inconvenient Truth, Napoleon Dynamite, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Reservoir Dogs and sex, lies, and videotape.
Each year the Festival receives close to 10,000 short film submissions and this year selected 50 to show. The Festival programs a collection of shorts from its most recent Festival for a theatrical tour of independent art houses in cities throughout the U.S. It is one of very few theatrical releases of short films in the United States.
The Festival is a program of the non-profit Sundance Institute. The support of these organizations helps offset the Festivals costs and sustain the Institutes year-round programs for independent artists.
Northwest Film Forum (View)
Ticketing, concessions, cinemas, restrooms, and our public edit lab are located on Northwest Film Forum's ground floor, which is wheelchair accessible. We have a limited number of assistive listening devices available for programs hosted in our larger theater, Cinema 1. These devices are maintained by the Technical Director, and can be requested at the ticketing and concessions counter. The Forum does NOT have assistive devices for the visually impaired, and is not (yet) a scent-free venue. Our commitment to increasing access for our audiences is ongoing, and we welcome all public input on the subject! If you have additional specific questions about accessibility at our venue, please contact our Executive Director Vivian Hua at vivian@nwfilmforum.org

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Solidarity with India's communists - Condemn the detention of Sitaram Yechury and D. Raja
Sitaram Yechury and D.Raja during a press conference
in Delhi.
In an outrageously authoritarian act, security forces in Srinagar airport proceeded to the detention of Sitaram Yechury, General Secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and D. Raja, General Secretary of the Communist Party of India.
The two leaders were on their way to meet Yusuf Tarigami, prominent cadre of CPI(M), MLA of Jammu & Kashmir Assembly, and to meet people from the region. In a press conference they said the government violated their democratic right to meet theircomrade. The moment they alighted from the flight, they were whisked away by security forces, their bags taken away and they were confined to a room. They were informed that they can't be allowed to step out of the airport because of the prevailing law and order situation in the State, they added.
Sitaram Yechury said: "It is our democratic right to meet our own comrade, who has been keeping unwell. The Central government wants everyone to believe that there is no curfew in Kashmir and everything is normal. But our experience today shows that the place has been completely taken over by security forces. The repression is palpable and visible to everyone."
In a statement, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) points out:
"The Polit Bureau of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) condemns the detention of Sitaram Yechury General Secretary of the Party and D Raja, General Secretary of the CPI at the Srinagar airport. This shows the authoritarian face of the BJP government.
Sitaram Yechury and D Raja had gone to Srinagar to visit Md Tarigami, MLA, the ailing leader of the CPI(M) and to meet the people of J&K.
The Polit Bureau calls upon the people to protest this anti-democratic act of the BJP government."
Likewise, the National Secretariat of the Communist Party of India strongly condemned the detention of Com. D. Raja, General Secretary of CPI and Com Sitaram Yechury, General Secretary of CPI (M), at Srinagar Airport today; by the security forces. They were on their way to meet Com. Tarigami, MLA of Jammu & Kashmir Assembly, as he is not well. Both the Communist leaders have written a letter earlier to the Governor; Jammu & Kashmir that they would like to meet the party leaders and activists at Kashmir valley. This detention is undemocratic and despicable.
The CPI further said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi yesterday in his broadcast to the nation claimed that there is normalcy in the Jammu & Kashmir and people are happy with the decision of abolition of article 370 and 35A. If it is true then why the national leaders are not allowed meeting the people of J & K. The whole Jammu & Kashmir is under seize with tens of thousands of security forces and they are parading in the streets of towns, villages and undemocratic curfew is in existence. This reflects the reality.
CPI condemns the arrest of D Raja and Sitaram Yechury and demanding to release them immediately. They should be allowed to meet the party leaders, activists and people of the state.
Solidarity from the KKE
A statement of solidarity towards the Communist Parties of India, CPI and CPI(M), was issued by the Press Office of the CC of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) which condemns the detention and demands the immediate lift of any barriers in the political activity of India's communists.
Tags BJP (India), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (M), India, Yechury Sitaram
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Discovery of Drake's "lost" navigational chart finally reveals secrets behind his voyage to America's West Coast in 1579. The secret location of Drake's colony "New Albion" is finally identified. This was the "first" British colony in America; and it marks the beginning of the British Empire. At last, we know the reason for an ongoing feud between Queen Elizabeth and Sir Francis. He wanted desperately to rescue the shipmates that he left behind in New Albion. Drake used a shipboard clock to map the West Coast. This is the first map of America that was made using a chronometer: thus Drake's map is accurate to within 15-degrees of the true longitude. Drake was not "just a pirate" as most historians assume. He was a naturalist, ethnographer, and geographer. Drake's map and his new ship design opened the way for the Dutch East India Company.
Throughout its history, America has been defined through maps. Whether made for military strategy or urban reform, to encourage settlement or to investigate disease, maps invest information with meaning by translating it into visual form. They capture what people knew, what they thought they knew, what they hoped for, and what they feared. As such they offer unrivaled windows onto the past. In this book Susan Schulten uses maps to explore five centuries of American history, from the voyages of European discovery to the digital age. With stunning visual clarity, A History of America in 100 Maps showcases the power of cartography to illuminate and complicate our understanding of the past. Gathered primarily from the British Library's incomparable archives and compiled into nine chronological chapters, these one hundred full-color maps range from the iconic to the unfamiliar. Each is discussed in terms of its specific features as well as its larger historical significance in a way that conveys a fresh perspective on the past. Some of these maps were made by established cartographers, while others were made by unknown individuals such as Cherokee tribal leaders, soldiers on the front, and the first generation of girls to be formally educated. Some were tools of statecraft and diplomacy, and others were instruments of social reform or even advertising and entertainment. But when considered together, they demonstrate the many ways that maps both reflect and influence historical change. Audacious in scope and charming in execution, this collection of one hundred full-color maps offers an imaginative and visually engaging tour of American history that will show readers a new way of navigating their own worlds.
Introducing readers to a wide range of maps from different time periods and a variety of cultures, this book confirms the vital roles of maps throughout history in commerce, art, literature, and national identity.
"Mit dem Lonely Planet USA Osten auf eigene Faust durch moderne Metropolen, Bergen und Sümpfen mit Rythmus! Etliche Monate Recherche stecken im Kultreiseführer für Individualreisende. Auf mehr als 700 Seiten geben die Autoren sachkundige Hintergrundinfos zum Reiseland, liefern Tipps und Infos für die Planung der Reise, beschreiben alle interessanten Sehenswürdigkeiten mit aktuellen Öffnungszeiten und Preisen und präsentieren ihre persönlichen Entdeckungen und Tipps. Auch Globetrotter, die abseits der ausgetretenen Touristenpfade unterwegs sein möchten, kommen auf ihre Kosten. Wie wäre es beispielsweise mit Wein? In der Finger Lakes Region in Upstate New York gibt es mehr als 65 Weingüter, die besonders für ihre Eisweine bekannt sind. Oder lieber Bier? Ok! Die Fullsteam Brauerei in Durham, NC, offeriert echt Südliches: süßes Kartoffelbier, Kudzubier und vieles mehr. Wo unterwegs übernachten und essen? Für jeden größeren Ort gibt es eine Auswahl an Unterkünften und Restaurants für jeden Geschmack und Geldbeutel. Abgerundet wird der Guide durch Übersichts- und Detailkarten, einem Farbkapitel zu den 25 Top-Highlights, Mit Kindern reisen, Kunst & Architektur, Reiserouten, fundierte Hintergrundinformationen sowie Glossar und - damit Sie gut verständlich ankommen - einem Sprachführer. Der Lonely-Planet-Reiseführer USA Osten ist ehrlich, praktisch, witzig geschrieben und liefert inspirierende Eindrücke und Erfahrungen."
During the 1700s, the American Founding Fathers became acutely aware that all mankind is seeking the same three things. Regardless of race, religion, or nationality, all human beings long for: freedom, prosperity, and peace. Of course, freedom is not an individual or isolated state of being. Freedom can only be enjoyed in a society or nation that is free. By the same token, prosperity and the opportunity to enjoy the good things of life require that the government be structured so that the people have an opportunity to prosper throughout the country. In the same manner, peace is something that one cannot seek for himself alone. It is a condition where the family, the community, and the nation as a whole must enjoy peace or there is no lasting peace for the individual. And it is only when the spirit of a nation is conducive to peace that it can begin to spread outward until peace eventually encompasses the whole world. It is obvious from the writings of the Founders that they were wondering where they might find a form of government which would allow the people to achieve these three great human aspirations. It is also apparent from their writings that they finally concluded that no such government existed. So they sat down to create one. It was a painful undertaking, not only to rediscover the ancient success formula which they eventually uncovered, but to get modern man to accept it. As this study will disclose, one of the most disheartening and frustrating aspects of the American Founders' Constitutional struggle was knowing what to do but encountering stiff resistance when they tried to get the people to do it. The fact that it did finally get into operation is one of the great miracles of modern history. In this study course we will discuss the origin and birth of the American nation, and how Jefferson discovered America's great success formula. We will discuss the miracle at Philadelphia and the baptism of fire that the nation passed through before the United States could emerge with a strong Constitutional government—a miracle in modern times.


Written in the last decade of his life, The Art of Fugue is the culmination of Bach' s experimentation with monothematic kunst instrumental works. plus Harpsichord or Clavichord works. for Chamber Orchestra. Die Kunst fuge der Fuge was left unfinished at the composer' s death and deemed by many to be ' problematic'. BBC Music magazine fuge is. Baroque - Harpsichord fuge - Piano plus plus & Keyboard - Sheet - An authoritative edition of Bach' s widely celebrated and much- loved Goldberg Variations BWV 988 ABRSM Harpsichord grade 8 Art Of kunst Fugue ( Die Kunst Der Fuge. SMA offers a meticulously organized collection including the works of hundreds of composers and tens of thousands of pieces of plus classical sheet music.
Appendix: Earlier versions, Thematic index. Die Kunst der Fuge ( orch. Eisenach 1685 - Leipzig 1750. Search choral sheet music ; New releases. Fugues 11- 14 The Art of the Fugue. The Art of Fugue ( Die Kunst Der Fuge) BWV 1080 contains fourteen fugues and four canons demonstrating Bach' s complete mastery of kunst the most complex musical counterpoint. Bach kunst der fuge sheet music plus. Bach kunst der fuge sheet music plus. Free sheet music collection of kunst the W.
The Art of bach Fugue plus ( The Art of the Fugue; German: Die Kunst der Fuge), BWV kunst 1080 is an incomplete kunst work of unspecified instrumentation by fuge Johann Sebastian Bach bach ( 1685– 1750). Contrapuncti XVI- XIX Choral The kunst Art of the Fugue. Johann Sebastian Bach on Kunst der Fuge site: List of pages: Harpsichord. Harnoncourt YouTube BAROQUE MUSIC FOR BRAIN POWER - MUSIC FOR MEMORY REASONING, CONCENTRATION, STUDY RELAX - Duration: 5: plus 52: 36. Bach J fuge S: Die Kunst plus der Fuge BWV 1080 - Arr.
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This performance of Bach' bach plus s Art of Fugue orchestrated by Bergel stems from a 1991 radio recording. minor j s bach sheet. Score Key: C minor ( Sounding Pitch) ( View more C minor Music for Saxophone fuge Quartet ). Bach' s plus Die Kunst der Fuge kunst ( The Art of Fugue) in this edition prepared by Donald Francis Tovey. Shop the kunst World' s Largest Sheet Music Selection today at Sheet Music Plus. The leading Bach scholar Dr Richard Jones has re- examined the principal sources of this key work from Bach' s final decade. SHEET MUSIC STORE 1 million+ items. 4 zweistimmige Kanons. Die Kunst Der Fuge plus sheet music - Chamber Orchestra ( Recorder f1 4 Strings), English Horn, Flute, Harpsichord, Bassoon, kunst Oboe Organ sheet music by Johann Sebastian Bach: bach Carus Verlag.
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While working on this fugue, where the name B. appears in the countersubject, the composer died ( in the autograph, in the hand of C. Bach) Sequences ( study version) by Nausica Th. Classical Sheet music ( PDF) available for subscribers!
Die Kunst der Fuge / The Art of the Fugue / LArte della Fuga. Four simple Fugues:. Art of Fugue, BWV 1080] Die Kunst der Fuge / L' arte della fuga BWV 1080.
Studio introduttivo a cura di Sergio Vartolo. Archivum Musicum: Monumenta Musicae Revocata, 37.


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Q: Logging levels not correct when using java.util.logging -> log4j2 -> Tomcat's JULI I have multiple microservices, some run on Tomcat some are standalone jars.
We used to log using java.util.logging framework. Later we made switch to Log4j2, but kept the JUL API for logging as to not to have to rewrite the code. This works (and it can not be changed although I would like to). Obviously there is some log level translation as JUL and Log4j2 use different log level. In non-Tomcat services, log levels look like this:
14:49:58.612 FINEST -            t1     Log level FINEST enabled
14:49:58.612 TRACE  -            t1     Log level FINER enabled
14:49:58.613 DEBUG  -            t1     Log level FINE enabled
14:49:58.613 CONFIG -            t1     Log level CONFIG enabled
14:49:58.613 INFO   -            t1     Log level INFO enabled
14:49:58.613 WARN   -            t1     Log level WARNING enabled
14:49:58.614 ERROR  -            t1     Log level SEVERE enabled

This is expected behavior.
However, on Tomcat, we get this:
14:46:38.393 TRACE  -            t1     Log level FINEST enabled
14:46:38.394 DEBUG  -            t1     Log level FINER enabled
14:46:38.394 DEBUG  -            t1     Log level FINE enabled
14:46:38.395 INFO   -            t1     Log level CONFIG enabled
14:46:38.396 INFO   -            t1     Log level INFO enabled
14:46:38.396 WARN   -            t1     Log level WARNING enabled
14:46:38.397 ERROR  -            t1     Log level SEVERE enabled

This is not correct. I belive it has something to do with the translation from-to JUL, since Tomcat's JULI is based on JUL.
In order to confirm my suspicion, I have switched Tomcat to use Log4j2 also for it's internal logging, which solved the log level issue but brought another. Thread context is not injected to Log4j2 logs anymore. I suspect it is because there are now running 2 Log4j instances - one for Tomcat and one for our app.
To solve my issue, I would be happy with either of the solutions

*

*Fix Tomcat using JULI to show correct Log4j2 log levels or

*Use Tomcat with Log4j instead of JULI but keep ThreadContext working

Number 1 is preferred solution if possible.

A: Looks to be difference is versions of log4j2 at 2.14.0. Per Update LevelTranslator to use LevelConverter interface diff:
 LevelTranslator:48 - JDK_TO_LOG4J.put(java.util.logging.Level.FINEST, Level.TRACE);
 ...
 LevelTranslator:35 + public static final Level FINEST = Level.forName("FINEST", Level.TRACE.intLevel() + 100);

The commit is tagged 2.14.0 so I would imagine that the non-Tomcat services are using version 2.14.0 or greater and the Tomcat services are a version older than 2.14.0
Seems you need to be able to upgrade the log4j2 that Tomcat is using or perhaps your services are including multiple different versions of log4j2 and Tomcat class loading is just loading the older version.  Make sure duplicate libs are removed from the project.  Keep in mind you have to check the full classloader tree.
If Tomcat itself is not using log4j it then defaults to org.apache.juli.logging.DirectJDKLog.  That translates the trace level to FINER so we know that is not the path of execution you are seeing.
@Override
public final void trace(Object message) {
    log(Level.FINER, String.valueOf(message), null);
}

The other possibility is that slf4j bridge handler is the output you are seeing as it maps to TRACE to FINEST.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


As designers, we wear many hats- but it's safe to say that the journey of new construction is one of my favorites. The end goal is to make the process for the client more simplified. We tackle this by breaking down the selection meetings & being in constant communication every step of the way.
The Sheyenne River home has been a project near and dear to our hearts over the past few months. I am so excited to share with you all some of the amazing spaces that have come together in collaboration with the home owners. We are still working on finalizing some of the details such as furniture, hardware & mirrors but I wanted to share the progress we've been making.
The kitchen in the Sheyenne River home is so bright and beautiful. This feel comes from the all white finishes, but also the natural lighting that filters into the space from every angle. To add a bit of warmth, the homeowner selected the most beautiful oak hardwoods which compliment the natural barstools perfectly! To add a bit of contrast, we added black fixtures paired with polished nickel hardware which creates a fresh but timeless feel. Who noticed the cutest little arched doorway? This leads into the expansive pantry and pocket office, which we will share more of soon.
With a fully open layout, the kitchen wall mirrors the adjacent great room wall. We got creative with the great room fireplace wall and spent lots of time discussing the detail that would go into the design. The grey washed brick-tile surround compliments the classic but updated feel of the entire home.
Check back soon for more details of this beautiful home we were so fortunate to be apart of.
Today I'm wrapping up the Best of 2017 series. This space serves so much purpose in our daily lives. It's the place we become energized to start our day and where we go to wind down to rest our minds at the end of the day. You deserve a master bedroom that becomes your sanctuary away from the rest of our busy daily lives. I often times hear clients say they'll finish decorating the rest of their house before they even think of pulling together their master bedroom. Does this sound like you? Make 2018 the year you focus on creating your own little space to recharge and relax. These photo's are a great place to start with inspiration!
The beautiful layers of textures, pattern and color in each of these rooms make them truly unique and beautiful in their own ways.
Everyone's idea of their perfect bedroom is different, and each space should be as unique as the homeowner. I personally, always gravitate towards neutrals in my bedroom. I bring in interest by adding different textures and layers, but since I work with color and pattern all day- I prefer to keep my space simple.
Layered lighting makes a huge difference in making the bedroom cozy and functional. Using wall sconces next to the bed can free up end table space, while still being functional.
The best of 2017 series was such a great way to start the year. It's forced me to sit down, reflect, and become inspired by all of these beautiful spaces once more. I can't wait to see what 2018 has in store, and I'm so happy to have each and everyone of you reading along.


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All news 12 Jan / 2020 Games
SKA - Dynamo Moscow. Introducing the opponents
Dynamo MoscowSKA - Dynamo Msk - 120120
HC SKA press-service
This season, SKA and Dynamo Moscow have met on three previous occasions, with our team emerging victorious every time:
19.09.2019. Dynamo Moscow - SKA - 0:2 (Rundblad 22:58, Karpov 37:35)
28.09.2019. SKA - Dynamo Moscow - 4:1 (Lehtera 14:20, 56:07, Ketov 22:23, Plotnikov 08:23; Petersson 33:32)
09.12.2019. Dynamo Moscow - SKA - 2:3 SO (Igumnov 06:48, Alexeev 48:18; Kagarlitsky 30:20, Yakupov 42:05, Ketov 65:00 SO)
Unlike SKA, Dynamo Moscow have made a positive start to 2020, defeating Kunlun Red Star (2:0), Spartak Moscow (3:0), Amur (4:2) and Salavat Yulaev Ufa (4:3), while conceding the one defeat to reigning KHL champions CSKA Moscow (1:4). Playing with confidence, Vladimir Krikunov's troops have risen to second position of the Western Conference with 64 points from 48 games, but it must be noted that fourth-placed SKA do have two matches in hand. SKA will overtake Dynamo Moscow with a victory in Saint Petersburg today.
SKA have started the new calendar year with two disappointing losses to Jokerit (0:6) and Spartak Moscow (1:3) and the one victory against Dinamo Minsk (4:1). All three of the games in question were played on the road. Jokerit, in joint third spot of the Western Conference, are tied on 63 points with SKA.
POINTS LEADERS IN LAST FIVE KHL MATCHES
Andre Petersson: 8 (4+4) points
Dmitrij Jaskin: 7 (2+5) points
Vadim Shipachyov: 5 (2+3) points
Vadim, who won two KHL Gagarin Cup championships with SKA in the past, is enjoying an excellent season with Dynamo, tallying 53 (14+39) points in 48 appearances. Teemu Pulkkinen, a recent arrival from Dinamo Minsk in Belarus, has picked up three (2+1) points in his maiden five Dynamo Moscow matches.
Experienced Finn Juuso Hietanen is their most productive defenseman with 31 (13+18) points to his name in the regular season. Michal Cajkovsky isn't far behind with 26 (7+19) points.
First choice goalkeeper, Ivan Bocharov, boasts a 93.7% save percentage, a goals against average of 1.85 and five shutouts. Veteran goaltender Alexander Yeryomenko has only competed in 12 games (91.5%, 2.82).
Puck drop at the Saint Petersburg Ice Palace is scheduled for 17:00 local time. KHL TV will provide a live broadcast in Russia, while you can also catch text updates on our official Twitter account.
Dynamo Moscow - SKA. Match facts
Dynamo Moscow - SKA. Press-conference
Dynamo Msk- SKA - 261220


A phishing attack is when an attacker sends you an email with a hyperlink to a malicious dummy website which exactly resembles like a trusted site. When you click on the link it may infect your computer or you may be tricked into logging into the malicious site with credentials from a site you trust. The attacker then has access to your username, password and any other sensitive and confidential information. For example, www.icici bank.com looks like www.iclci.com in the email which attacker sent it to you where the third letter 'I' (upper case) with 'l' (lowercase). In some sites replace 'o' with '0' (Zero).
Display all URL characters using Unicode if and only if all the characters belong to the same language that is chosen by user settings; display Punycode URL otherwise.
Punycode is a way to represent International Domain Names (IDNs) with the limited character set (A-Z, 0-9) supported by the domain name system. Punycode makes it possible to register domains with foreign characters. It is a special encoding used to encode internationalized domain names i.e. convert Unicode/non-ASCII characters to ASCII. In Layman's terms, this means that if you have a domain name with Chinese or other international characters/languages, you can register a domain name with normal A-Z characters that can allow a browser to represent that domain as international characters in the location bar. So in the above example, 'e' 'p' 'i' and 'c' are Unicode characters that look identical to the real characters but are different Unicode characters.
the domain "www.xn--e1awd7f.com" is equal to "www.epic.com"
the domain "www.xn--80ak6aa92e.com" is equal to "www.apple.com"
You can verify the same in Online Punycode converter in the following link https://www.punycoder.com/.
If your web browser is displaying "apple.com" in the address bar secured with SSL, but the content on the page is coming from another server, then your browser is vulnerable to the homograph attack.
A homograph attack that allows creating URLs with characters from various language sets. There are some characters from other languages are visually indistinguishable from characters in the English alphabet. Attackers can register their own domain names and own sites that are similar to the existing web addresses for stealing data from users who happened to visit them.
In the simplest version of such attacks, a fake URL may consist only of simple ASCII alphanumeric characters. The intruder uses symbols that are similar to each other. Often the letter q may be confused with g or o with 0. Many Unicode characters, which represents alphabets like Greek, Cyrillic, and Armenian in internationalized domain names, look the same as Latin letters to the casual eye but are treated differently by computers with the completely different web address. All non-Latin addresses need to be encoded in a special way to be handled by DNS servers using Punycode and all browsers translate non-ASCII URLs into Punycode in the background before performing a DNS lookup. By default, many web browsers use 'Punycode' encoding to represent Unicode characters in the URL to defend against Homograph phishing attacks.
For example, the Chinese domain "þƒ¡.co" is represented in Punycode as "xn--s7y.co".
Loophole: Researchers recently found that if the attacker chooses all characters for a domain name from a single foreign language character set, resembling exactly same as the targeted domain, then browsers will render it in the same language, instead of Punycode format. If the fake URL only includes one Punycode character, the browser will flag it as potentially dangerous. However, when all the letters of the URL are actually Unicode equivalents from another language, browsers will presume it's a legitimate URL from a country that uses those characters.
For example, an "apple.com" that used the Cyrillic "a" would actually be written as "xn--pple-43d.com" when registered in vulnerable web browsers.
The best defense against this attack is to check the address bar after the page has loaded and if it is being served over a valid HTTPS connection also by carefully inspecting the site's common name being present in the SSL certificate and its validity and issued by a trusted third party certificate authority.
Use of password manager software that creates, stores all your passwords for your computers, websites, applications and networks. It works by generating long, complex, unique password and stores them in encrypted form to protect the confidential data from attackers with physical access to your PC. The encrypted file is accessible only through a master password. So, all you need to do is remember just one master password to open your password manager and unlock all your other passwords, you do not want to memorize all. So whenever you came across any domain which looks like legitimate "apple.com" or "amazon.com" but actually is not, your password manager software will detect it and will not automatically authenticate you to that phishing site.
Moreover, users are always advised to manually type website addresses in the address bar for important sites like Gmail, banking websites, instead of clicking any link mentioned on some website or email or redirecting even from the google search, to prevent against such attacks. Until then, if you are not sure if you are on a real site you can copy the URL in the location bar and paste it into Notepad++ or text editor, it should appear as the https://xn--….. version or sometimes it turned to "www.????.com" if so it is a fake domain. Otherwise, it will appear as the real domain in its un-encoded form if it is the real thing.
Also in order to temporarily mitigate this attack and identify such phishing domains, users are recommended to disable Punycode support in their browsers which will force browsers to always display IDN domains in its Punycode form, making it possible to identify malicious domains. Luckily Firefox browser has this option enabled but unfortunately, there is no similar setting available in Chrome or Opera to disable Punycode URL conversions manually, so Chrome users have to wait for next few weeks to get patched Stable 58 release. IE is automatically protected since it shows the domain names always as Punycode.


Original Brazilian bee propolis for enhancing the immune system and infections in the respiratory system.
Liquid bee propolis spray for use orally by spraying into the throat.
30 ml a bottle. Good for one month use.
It is not recommended for people who are allergic to tree resin. It is not recommended for people allergic to bees or bee products.