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Globales English Articles Lesbos Migration & NoBorder
Eindrücke einer Krankenschwester auf Lesbos vom 04.03.2020 zur aktuellen Situation vor Ort
As thousands of asylum seekers reach Turkey's land and sea borders with Greece, pressure has steadily been mounting on Lesvos in the wake of this geopolitical crisis. Riots, strikes, and fascist attacks against refugees, aid workers, and journalists have become more frequent, as both civic order and international law breaks down. Last Friday, Erdogan opened the Turkish border, effectively dismantling the 2016 EU-Turkey deal that drastically stemmed the flow of refugees into Europe following the million-plus influx in 2015. Claiming this tactic was meant to garner international support for his operation in northwest Syria, the weaponization of refugee populations is nonetheless widely perceived as a threat to national security in Greece.
Here on the island, Greek authorities announced plans for a new closed detention center in Karava, in the north of the island, to replace the now infamous Moria camp, where 20,000 residents live in squalor, wading through wastewater and an incomprehensible bureaucratic maze yearning for the coveted "blue stamp" that will free them from the island-turned-prison. Stabbings, sexual violence, and suicide attempts are commonplace – an eight-year-old child in the so-called "Safe Zone" for unaccompanied minors below age 12 among the most recent attempts.
Riot police arrived at the port in the early hours before dawn on February 25 in anticipation of fierce opposition to construction of the new facility, and indeed clashed with local protestors for two days until they retreated back to Athens. Several hundred protestors blocked the port and the road accessing the construction site, hurling rocks and setting fires, and riot police responded in turn with tear gas and brute force.
A general strike was declared last Thursday and Friday in further protest of the closed camps, as well the authoritarian nature of its implementation. In a singular and strange turn of events, factions on all sides of the refugee/migrant issue seemed to agree, albeit for very different reasons, that building a new closed camp was unacceptable. Refugees and left-leaning activists oppose it's inhumane prison-like conditions, many islanders oppose what they perceive as an expansion rather than resolution of the problem, while fascists and far-right extremists oppose the presence of refugees within Greece writ large.
On Sunday, boats and dinghies stalled at the port of Thermi for hours as islanders harassed and intimidated them, preventing exhausted and terrified passengers from disembarking. At no point did police intervene, though some were present on the scene. UNHCR's "Stage 2," the initial point of reception previously used in Sykamia to shelter new arrivals before they were transported to Moria, was set ablaze.
The same afternoon, our medical team started advancing from the olive groves above Moria camp in a caravan of eight cars transporting coordinators, translators,doctors, nurses, medics, social workers, and therapists to the town of Mytilini about twenty minutes away. We had just finished our shift at the clinic providing care to those living within the camp, but no buses or taxis were running at the time. Locals had blocked both of the main roads from Moria to Mytilini to obstruct the passage of newly arriving asylum seekers.
We attempted to take an alternate path to town but ran into mobs of violent fascists on motorbikes and trucks armed with clubs, metal rods, and other rather barbaric weaponry. They appeared to be in pursuit of a group of young refugee men on foot heading in the direction of Moria, but then seemed to pivot their attention toward us. As we came upon a roadblock, they closed in, shouting and smashing the hood, windows, and car doors with fists, boots, and clubs, shattering the glass with heavy blows. Our cars became separated as each of us peeled out at whatever opportunity we had to flee. Eventually calculating that Moria was the safest place to seek refuge, we returned to the camp and stayed there overnight, departing under the cover of darkness when the streets were more quiet.
The feeling on Lesvos now is that refugees and those who aid them are not welcome, and that fascist and far-right vigilantes can terrorize these targets with impunity. In now numerous incidents, local police have either been absent, stood by passively, or, some say, abetted their activities with logistical and other forms of support. Further compounding the hostility, a widely held misconception among locals is that NGOs are profiting from the refugee situation, and are thus to be blamed for "pulling" asylum seekers to the island. While authorities have done nothing to prevent or respond to attacks against refugees, aid workers, and journalists, riot police teams are consistently dispatched for protests in support of refugee rights and any large gathering of refugees.
Early Monday morning a rubber dinghy of 48 refugees and migrants off the coast of Lesvos capsized, resulting in the death of a four year old boy and the hospitalization of another child. The Greek military is now conducting so-called "military exercises" using live ammunition instead of the usual tear gas at both land and sea borders, including from Eftalou in the north to Agrielia Kratigos in the south of Lesvos. How refugees will be informed of these exercises in order to protect themselves from gunfire is unknown. A young Syrian man has been shot and killed near Edirne at the Ipsala land border, while the Greek PM Mitsotakis denounces this as "fake news," by now the rallying cry of rightwing populists the world over when encountering damning or otherwise inconvenient truths. Coast guards are actively driving back sea vessels carrying asylum seekers, and can be seen firing shots at a dinghy off the coast of Kos. In blatant violation of international refugee law, particularly the principle of non-refoulement, Greece has suspended asylum applications for one month, and is carrying out summary detention and deportations. Plans are underway to quickly erect a closed camp in northern Greece to temporarily house all new arrivals since March 1, to be deported back to their countries of origin without registration. The EU has yet to make any statement condemning this unilateralbreach of the 1951 Refugee Convention or upholding Greece's legal obligation to protect the rights of the displaced. In fact, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has praised Greece with jingoistic rhetoric for functioning as Europe's "shield" and pledged a staggering 700 million euros for fortification of Greece's borders.
Some 400 asylum seekers with both red and blue stamps were mysteriously allowed to board ferries from Lesvos to Athens on March 2, and told upon arrival that they had ten to twenty days to get out of the country or be deported. Yesterday, a similar rumor had spread, and hundreds of Moria residents amassed at the port, awaiting the dim chance to escape the de facto prison that is Lesvos. Most were apprehensive but desperate enough to take the risk: "We know we are pawns in their [Greece, Turkey, EU's] chess game, but this could be our only opportunity to leave." Local and riot police eventually turned up and forcibly drove people away, shouting, "Go back to Moria!" and "No ship!" The motive and authority behind the clandestine move to permit some asylum seekers passage to the mainland is unknown, and speaks to the current climate of lawlessness and disorder. Legal advisors have warned that this could be a trap set up by the state or other shadowy actors to lure refugees to Athens for immediate deportation based on illegal movement.
The signs of surging nativism have been evident for months. The conservative government led by "New Democracy" came into power last July and has since adopted punitive policies toward asylum seekers, leaving little room for humanity. Proposed plans included building a floating barrier wall around the perimeter of the island to physically bar them from reaching shore. The island's lifejacket graveyard, once a moving symbol of the scale and hardship of those enduring the harrowing sea journey to arrive at supposedly safe shores, went up in flames a few weeks ago after a fire was deliberately set. Last month, seven young men affiliated with Golden Dawn, Greece's neo-Nazi party with longstanding ties to Greek police, were arrested in the midst of a planned attack against Moria residents. Hundreds of new arrivals languishing at the north shore and the Mytilini port have been forced to sleep outside, blockaded by local residents from entering the island and reaching Moria.
Greece has requested reinforcements from Frontex, the EU's notorious border control agency, and expects air, land, and sea support in the coming days in order to exert maximum force against entry. This will only mean further state-sponsored violence and oppression of some of the most vulnerable populations already fleeing torture, armed conflict, and other forms of persecution.
As the rising specter of far-right and fascist elements in Lesvos triggers street violence and a collapse of public order, the EU has simultaneously lost all legitimacy as harbingers of human rights, justice, and the rule of law. This was apparent in the ruthless austerity measures it imposed on Greece beginning in 2010 to combat the government's debt crisis, in the 2016 deal with Turkey to buy it's cooperation inrestricting the movement of refugees, and again now, as it shamelessly denies the humanity of millions in the interest of it's own plainly racist political agenda.
https://de.indymedia.org
zum Thema Migration & NoBorder:
Innsbruck 18. Januar 2023
GRENZEN TÖTEN Demonstration
GRENZEN TÖTEN! Demonstration (Innsbruck) überregionale Demo: Grenzen töten! 🏴🚩 Wann: Samstag, 04.02.2023 um 14 Uhr Wo: Marktplatz, Innsbruck, AUSTRIA Translations on social media!
Slowenien 5. Januar 2023
Exactly one year ago today, in the early morning hours of December 15, 2021, Z. and a friend gave a ride to three people in a car in the so-called Slovenia, who stopped on the side of the road....
#freeall - Sichere Fluchtwege Teil 2
Ein Interview mit der Soligruppe über den Sinn von Soligruppen, wie Repression wirkt, wie wir uns auf Repression vorbereiten können und was nach der Inhaftierung noch zu tun ist.


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Satan Sigil
The History of the Origin of the Sigil of Baphomet and its Use in the Church of Satan There have been many rumors and claims regarding this symbol, and here we recount the Church of Satan's. A protection sigil is an original and artistic creation, produced by elaborating a phrase that expresses a magical intention. It is created to give you the protection against any harm – a physical one or something more abstract like evil forces and energies sent your way from an enemy.
Beyonce Church Of Satan Sigil
Satan Sigil Printout
The Sigil of Baphomet is the official insignia of the Church of Satan. This Satan Star is a pentagram. During that time, it had many meanings, uses and descriptions related to it. Satan star is called the "material five-pointed star", which represents the principle of physical and earthy.
The following is a list of attributed sigils or pentacles of demons.In demonology, sigils are pictorial signatures attributed to demons, angels, or other beings.In the ceremonial magic of the Middle Ages, sigils were used in the summoning of these beings and were the pictorial equivalent to their true name.
The white-on-black rendition of the Sigil of Baphomet
The original 'Samael/Lilith' version
Www.SigilofBaphomet.com Church of Satan Sigil of Anton LaVey SS 316L 4.9 out of 5 stars 53 ratings. Price: $15.00 FREE Shipping Get free shipping Free 5-8 day shipping within the U.S. When you order $25.00 of eligible items sold or fulfilled by Amazon.
The Sigil of Baphomet is the official insignia of the Church of Satan.[1][2][3] It first appeared on the cover of The Satanic Mass LP in 1968 and later on the cover of The Satanic Bible in 1969.[4] The sigil has been called a 'material pentagram' representational of carnality and earthy principles.[5] The Church describes the symbol as the '...preeminent visual distillation of the iconoclastic philosophy of Satanism.'
In the literature and imagery predating LaVey, imagery used to represent the 'Satanic' is denoted by inverted crosses and blasphemous parodies of Christian art. The familiar goat's head inside an inverted pentagram did not become the foremost symbol of Satanism until the founding of the Church of Satan in 1966.[6] The original goat pentagram containing the Hebrew letters at the five points of the pentagram spelling out Leviathan (לויתן) first appeared in the book La Clef de la Magie Noire by French occultist Stanislas de Guaita, in 1897. This symbol was later used in Maurice Bessy's book A Pictorial History of Magic and the Supernatural,[7] with the words 'Samael' and 'Lilith' removed.
During his years of research into the 'black arts', LaVey had come across this book and added it to his collection. When he chose to turn his magic circle, the Order of the Trapezoid, into the Church of Satan, he decided that the symbol was the one which most fully embodied the principles which were the bedrock of the Satanic church. Contrary to claims made against the Church by detractors, LaVey never claimed to have created this particular symbol.[6] In its formative years, this particular version of the symbol was utilized by the Church on membership cards, stationary, medallions and most notably above the altar in the ritual chamber of the Black House. During the writing of The Satanic Bible, it was decided that a unique version of the symbol should be rendered to be identified exclusively with the Church. The complete graphic now known as the Sigil of Baphomet, named such for the first time in LaVey's The Satanic Rituals, first appeared on the cover of The Satanic Mass LP in 1968 and later on the cover of The Satanic Bible in 1969.[4] This version was drawn by LaVey and attributed to 'Hugo Zorilla' (a pseudonym used by LaVey in some of his art).[8]
The sigil, when combined with the text 'The First Church ov Satan', was previously trademarked by the Church of Satan, but the trademark was abandoned in 2000.[9]
^ 'Extraordinary Goats: Meetings with Remarkable Goats, Caprine Wonders & Horned Troublemakers'. google.com.
^ 'Grimoires: A History of Magic Books'. google.com.
^ 'The Sigil of Satan'. ChurchofSatan.com. Retrieved 2012-11-10. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
^ abLewis 2001, pp. 20–21. sfn error: no target: CITEREFLewis2001 (help)
^Lewis & Controversial New Religions, pp. 417. sfn error: no target: CITEREFLewisControversial_New_Religions (help)
^ abLewis 2002, p. 20. sfn error: no target: CITEREFLewis2002 (help)
^Original French: Histoire en 1000 images de la magie, 1961; English edition first published in 1964
^ Partridge, Christopher (2006-06-20). The Re-Enchantment of the West, Vol 2: Alternative Spiritualities, Sacralization, Popular Culture and Occulture. A&C Black. ISBN9780567041234.
^ 'THE FIRST CHURCH OV SATAN'. Trademark Electronic Search System (TESS). United States Patent and Trademark Office. Retrieved October 7, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
Media related to Sigil of Baphomet at Wikimedia Commons
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sigil_of_Baphomet&oldid=1014287517'
The Sigil of Lucifer is a lesser known historical magical sigil used occasionally as an emblem by modern Satanists. The image originates in the sixteenth century Italian Grimoirium Verum, or "Grimoire of Truth." Used in conjunction with other symbols, its original purpose of the sigil was to aid in a visual invocation of the angel Lucifer.
The figure is probably derived from an earlier work, most likely drawn from a magic square whose origins are now lost.The emblem is sometimes referred to as the "Seal of satan," although this is not a historical usage.
Image in situ
Related Symbols:
Anton Lavey SigilExcel Combine Multiple Sheets Into One Pivot Table
✔ Nfc Iphone
✔ Britbox Amazon
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✔ Beauty Sigil

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Swarming with volunteers and soaked through by a chilly rain, the area of the World Trade Center disaster has become a muddy, malodorous and frenetic village built around shifting mounds of debris that, yesterday, yielded only the dead.
Throughout the day, a steady trickle of firefighters and rescue workers carried body bags from the piles of wreckage to refrigerated trucks that were parked in several places around the 16-acre site.
One worker who had tunneled into the debris said he had found the remains of people strapped into what seemed to be airplane seats. Another, in one of the most searing discoveries among the ruins, found the body of a flight attendant, her hands bound.
While no survivors were found by late in the evening, the rescuers continued to operate on the assumption that, given the right circumstances, people could still be alive somewhere in the rubble.
Working in the tangle of concrete and steel from the shattered buildings, they found wallets, luggage, blackened computer keyboards and shards of furniture. Sometimes they found a body, but simply marked it and burrowed further into the wet wreckage.
The rain both helped and hurt the effort, workers said. It cleared away the dust that had hovered over the site. But it also filled air cavities under the rubble with water and made the piles slippery.
Across the landscape of trucks, twisted metal and muck, the scene combined the mundane and the macabre.
On the northwest edge of the trade center area, workers took advantage of the abandoned restaurants in the food court of the World Financial Center. Some ran electrical cords along the ceiling and hung light bulbs, adding an odd holiday look to the yellowish gloom inside.
Others got the kitchens going to serve hot food to the rescuers and cleared away the neat table settings, covered in dust, to make room for firefighters who slumped over and napped. In one restaurant, a group of equipment operators found a cache of still-cold beer.
But the food court also served as a walkway for people carrying body bags from the rubble to a temporary morgue.
At one point in the afternoon, a group of searchers appeared with a stretcher. A filled body bag was laid out on it and on top of that, someone had placed a black New York Fire Department helmet. Everyone understood the message, and as the group passed, all the people stopped eating. The courtyard fell silent. Many of the workers slowly took off their hard hats and bowed their heads.
Both security and organization at the site improved by the hour as city officials struggled to bring some order to the confusing mass of volunteers who had managed to get close to the rescue work but who, in some cases, milled about with little to do. By the end of the day, food and supply distribution points had been established around well-marked command posts.
Earlier, the disarray had prompted Fire Commissioner Thomas Von Essen to issue a curt plea for no more volunteers.
There was at least one report of looting at a darkened store in Lower Manhattan and instances of people pretending to be construction or rescue workers to get past the police barricades.
Officials were especially rankled by the appearance late Thursday night of a woman who, they said, made the claim that she had spoken by cell phone with survivors under the rubble -- a story that sent a rush of hope and then disappointment through the ranks of the exhausted rescue teams. The woman, Sugeil Mejia, 24, was arrested yesterday morning and charged with reckless endangerment, obstructing fire operations and filing false police reports, said Police Commissioner Bernard B. Kerik.
Volunteers with authentic skills continued to plead for a chance to help in the search and cleanup, but officials began screening them carefully. At the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, hundreds of people were turned away.
At one point, the police announced that only steamfitters, welders and ironworkers who could show their licenses and union cards would be taken to the trade center wreckage. But many others could not bring themselves to leave. ''We were off duty and couldn't just sit around,'' said Bill Kiger, a firefighter from Rahway, N.J.
He and three coworkers insisted that they had extensive experience doing rescue work in tunnels and collapsed buildings. But so, apparently, had many of the volunteers who were already working. The New Jersey firefighters were given the task of carrying bags of donated clothing to trucks in a parking lot across from the convention center.
At the edges of the vast ruined expanse, the small town that has risen to serve the rescue operation hummed with incessant activity.
A police command center was set up in a two-story Burger King, which also served as a temporary feeding station. At times it also seemed like a bazaar as loads of donated clothing, including an incongruous bag full of velvet tops with spaghetti straps, were distributed by volunteers to the rain-soaked workers.
Deserted buildings in the neighborhood became dormitories. A search-and-rescue team from Indiana found a haven in Deutsche Bank, where they slept Thursday night on chairs and the floor. More workers stretched out in the lobby and mezzanine of the Embassy Suites hotel in the World Financial Center. Someone even kept the bathrooms in the hotel stocked with toothbrushes and baby wipes, while hot breakfast was served in the morning in the Brokers Loft bar there.
Some neighborhood shops -- all abandoned in the attack -- have been raided for supplies like batteries, water and rain gear. Any that sold disposable cameras appeared to have been cleaned out.
To break the tension, bottled-up grief and just plain exhaustion, some of the workers even indulged in a bit of fantasy.
Early yesterday morning, just as dawn was breaking over the scene of wreckage and death, a group of firefighters on a break from the grim routine of searching the rubble was seen in the Brooks Brothers store in 1 Liberty Plaza, joking and trying on coats and top hats.


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Tag Archives: Shahid
Shahid unveils new user interface in French
Total direct pay TV subs in Algeria
Shahid, the Arabic streaming platform, has announced that it will be now available in French, marking the third version of its user interface. Aimed at French-speaking users from territories including North Africa, Europe, Canada, and the Levant, the brand-new French interface comes with a host of features similar to those available in Arabic and English. [...]
Tags: Shahid, Shahid VIP
Sky's kids show 'The Brilliant World of Tom Gates' coming to MENA in 2022
Pay TV share of TV households in Oman
Sky commissioned a second series of kids show The Brilliant World of Tom Gates from TG Entertainment Limited for MENA region. The kids' series will be available in 2022 on E-Vision as well as on MBC Group's streaming platform Shahid. Commenting on the distribution deal, Lucy Murphy, Director of Kids' Content at Sky UK and [...]
Tags: e-vision, MBC Group, Shahid, sky, TG Entertainment, The Brilliant World of Tom Gates
Saudi Sports Company rolls out SSC channels and partners with MBC to broadcast sports competitions
Total Direct Pay TV Revenues in Saudi Arabia
The Saudi Sports Company has launched satellite sports channels and sealed a contract with the MBC Group to provide broadcasting services for these channels and to transmit the events of the Saudi competitions (Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup – Prince Mohammed bin Salman Professional Cup League – Saudi Super Cup), for the upcoming [...]
Tags: MBC Group, Saudi Sports Company, Shahid
Shahid rolls out first kids' original series for streaming platform
Shahid VIP – the premium, subscription-based service of Shahid launches Toota Toota, the very first Shahid kids' original series. The first season of "Tota Tota" series, the first of Shahid Originals' kids-dedicated productions is available since the beginning of the current holy month of Ramadan. The presented from MBC3, Dania El Shafie, commented, "Toota Toota is inspired [...]
Tags: MBC, Shahid, Shahid VIP, Toota Toota
Roya TV's new production Tahqeeq Amni to be aired on MBC in MENA
The collaboration between Roya TV and Shahid will see criminal series be aired on MBC's streaming platform Shahid. This is the first time a production from Roya will be aired on Shahid. Tahqeeq Amni is a Jordanian TV program that highlights stories of criminal cases that took place in various parts of Jordan. The show [...]
Tags: MBC, Roya TV, Shahid
Exclusive new drama series to air on Shahid VIP
Shahid SVOD & Streaming Service Subscribers
A new drama series, Rashash will be aired on Shahid VIP starting 21 January 2021. MBC Group is bringing a new adaptation of 1980s story of notorious criminal, Rashash, a brand-new Shahid Original drama series exclusively to Shahid VIP. The new TV series is based on a long-running criminal investigation from the late 1980s. Written [...]
Tags: MBC, Shahid
MBC's Shahid to launch new Original series 'Nemra Etnein' in MENA
Total Pay VIdeo Revenues in UAE
MBC Group's streaming platform Shahid VIP will launch its new Original series Nemra Etnein on October 29. The streaming platform will release one episode weekly. The series is a pan-Arab romantic anthology, including eight episodes, each with an independent story containing different characters and a different theme or series of events. Nemra Etnein presents a different take on [...]
Tags: MBC, Nemra Etnein, Shahid
MBC's Shahid to premiere Arabic horror movie 'Bloodline' in MENA
MBC Group's streaming platform Shahid will premiere Arabic horror film Bloodline on October 30 exclusively in the MENA region. Bloodline is produced by Film Clinic, a production house founded by the Egyptian producer and screenwriter Mohamed Hefzy and counts Majid Al Ansari and Gabi Antal as executive producers. The feature film, written and directed by Rami Yasin, [...]
Tags: Bloodline, MBC Group, Shahid
MBC to premiere new documentary via Shahid
SVOD Subscribers UAE
Shahid, MBC's streaming platform will air the TV series Beirut: 6:07 starting October 17. Produced by Imagic Group's The Big Picture Studio, the series will pay tribute to the casualties of the Beirut port explosion via 15 short stories inspired by true events. Each episode will tell the story of a victim, survivor, through the [...]
MBC introduced parental controls and new content line-up for kids on Shahid
MBC Group has introduced an array of special safety and educational features for children of all ages on its streaming platform Shahid. The features intend to limit kids' access to what is chosen for them and at the same time helping them work on their Arabic-language skills due to the availability of Arabic dubbing. The [...]
Tags: MBC Group, Shahid


Does this look exactly like the real… In terms of weight and actual look. Also, Does it work 24/7 even if I dont wear it for 2weeks?
Our watches look, feel, have the same weight as size as the original ones. You can't tell the difference.
The power reserve of the watch is of about 18-20 hours. If you do not wear the watch for 20 hours then it will stop. Not even the original watches work for 2 weeks without being worn. An original Rolex Datejust can continue to work only for about 39-48 hours after you stop wearing it.
Rolex watches are equipped with an automatic movement and an automatic movement is quite limited from this point of view. They are not like quartz movement watches. They can't work for more a day or two without being worn, even the original ones.


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text:
namespace {
const unsigned kPositionBase = 64;
const char kPositionAlphabet[] =
    ".0123456789ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ_abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz";
}  // namespace

namespace enhanced_bookmarks {

ItemPosition::ItemPosition() {
}

ItemPosition::ItemPosition(const PositionVector& position)
    : position_(position) {
}

ItemPosition::~ItemPosition() {
}

// static
ItemPosition ItemPosition::CreateInitialPosition() {
  PositionVector position(1, kPositionBase / 2);
  return ItemPosition(position);
}

// static
ItemPosition ItemPosition::CreateBefore(const ItemPosition& other) {
  DCHECK(other.IsValid());
  return ItemPosition(CreateBeforeImpl(other.position_, 0));
}

// static
ItemPosition::PositionVector ItemPosition::CreateBeforeImpl(
    const PositionVector& other,
    size_t from_index) {
  DCHECK_LT(from_index, other.size());
  PositionVector before(other.begin() + from_index, other.end());

  // Decrement the last character instead of going half-way to 0 in order to
  // make sure chaining CreateBefore calls result in logarithmic rather than
  // linear length growth.
  before[before.size() - 1] /= 2;
  if (before[before.size() - 1] != 0) {
    // If the last digit didn't change to 0, we're done!
    return before;
  }

  // Reset trailing zeros, then decrement the last non-zero digit.
  int index = before.size() - 1;
  while (index >= 0 && before[index] == 0) {
    before[index--] = kPositionBase / 2;
  }

  // Negative index means all digits were zeros. Put that many zeros to the
  // front of the string to get one that is comes before the input given.
  // This will cause the returned string to be twice as long as the input one,
  // (and about twice as long as needed for a valid return value), however that
  // means this function can be called many times more before we need to
  // increase the string size again. Increasing it with the minimum length
  // would result in a linear string size growth.
  if (index < 0) {
    before.insert(before.begin(), before.size(), 0);
  } else {
    before[index] /= 2;
  }
  return before;
}

// static
ItemPosition ItemPosition::CreateAfter(const ItemPosition& other) {
  DCHECK(other.IsValid());
  return ItemPosition(CreateAfterImpl(other.position_, 0));
}

// static
ItemPosition::PositionVector ItemPosition::CreateAfterImpl(
    const PositionVector& other,
    size_t from_index) {
  DCHECK_LE(from_index, other.size());
  if (from_index == other.size()) {
    return PositionVector(1, kPositionBase / 2);
  }

  PositionVector after(other.begin() + from_index, other.end());

  // Instead of splitting the position with infinity, increment the last digit
  // possible, and reset all digits after. This makes sure chaining createAfter
  // will result in a logarithmic rather than linear length growth.
  size_t index = after.size() - 1;
  do {
    after[index] += (kPositionBase - after[index] + 1) / 2;
    if (after[index] != kPositionBase)
      return after;
    after[index] = kPositionBase / 2;
  } while (index-- > 0);

  // All digits must have been at the maximal value already, so the string
  // length has to increase. Double it's size to ensure CreateAfter can be
  // called exponentially more times every time this needs to happen.
  after.insert(after.begin(), after.size(), kPositionBase - 1);

  return after;
}

// static
ItemPosition ItemPosition::CreateBetween(const ItemPosition& before,
                                         const ItemPosition& after) {
  DCHECK(before.IsValid() && after.IsValid());
  return ItemPosition(CreateBetweenImpl(before.position_, after.position_));
}

// static
ItemPosition::PositionVector ItemPosition::CreateBetweenImpl(
    const PositionVector& before,
    const PositionVector& after) {
  DCHECK(before < after);

  PositionVector between;
  for (size_t i = 0; i < before.size(); i++) {
    if (before[i] == after[i]) {
      // Add the common prefix to the return value.
      between.push_back(before[i]);
      continue;
    }
    if (before[i] < after[i] - 1) {
      // Split the difference between the two characters.
      between.push_back((before[i] + after[i]) / 2);
      return between;
    }
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    between.push_back(before[i]);
    PositionVector suffix = CreateAfterImpl(before, i + 1);
    between.insert(between.end(), suffix.begin(), suffix.end());
    return between;
  }

  // |before| must be a prefix of |after|, so return that prefix followed by
  // something that comes before the remaining digits of |after|.
  PositionVector suffix = CreateBeforeImpl(after, before.size());
  between.insert(between.end(), suffix.begin(), suffix.end());
  return between;
}

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  DCHECK_GT(arraysize(kPositionAlphabet), kPositionBase);

  std::string str;
  str.reserve(position_.size());
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    unsigned char val = position_[i];
    CHECK_LT(val, kPositionBase);
    str.push_back(kPositionAlphabet[position_[i]]);
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bool ItemPosition::Equals(const ItemPosition& other) const {
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bool ItemPosition::LessThan(const ItemPosition& other) const {
  return position_ < other.position_;
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}  // namespace enhanced_bookmarks

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


On behalf of Mark M. Cheser, Esquire, Counselor at Law posted in Drug Charges on Thursday, August 23, 2018.
It is an accepted fact that no person is capable of perfection. However, people who work in certain professions in New Jersey and across the country are often held to a higher standard. For example, if police officers are suspected of a crime, they often face significant public scrutiny. In fact, in a climate where police are continually under fire, officials may be quick to make an arrest should a suspicion of criminal activity arise, regardless of evidence. Unfortunately, a police chief now faces drug charges.
The 43-year-old man was originally suspended from his position in July. The suspension came after a prosecutor's report indicated that violations of state law and police guidelines may have occurred in the department. His recent arrest, however, was allegedly connected to an attempt to purchase cocaine.
Reports claim that the man bought the cocaine online and arranged to pick it up at a post office box. However, detectives allegedly put a fake substance in the post office box. The man was arrested when he reportedly picked up the decoy.
Many details surrounding the case are unclear, including what led detectives to plant a fake package of cocaine. Unfortunately, many people in New Jersey may not feel confident with their decision making abilities regarding drug charges and other crimes, even those who have worked as a law enforcement officer. Often, it is difficult for people to objectively view their case, preventing them from making informed decisions. Fortunately, there are legal professionals who can help. With such help, defendants often feel more capable of choosing which path to take when it comes to responding to such accusations.


The one-and-only Andy Griffith stars in Matlock: The Complete Series. In the courtroom and out, no one matches the quick wit, Southern charm and killer instincts of legendary attorney Ben Matlock! This collection of all 178 episodes showcases the mysteries that made Matlock a television classic. Helping the masterful lawyer solve his most intriguing cases over the years are a crew of clever colleagues, including daughter Leanne (Brynn Thayer), Conrad McMasters (Clarence Gilyard, Jr.), P.I. Cliff Lewis (Daniel Roebuck) and P.I. Jerri Stone (Carol Huston). Over nine seasons, riveting story lines and A-list guest stars prove that Matlock can captivate juries and audiences alike.


Hi! This is bobby from 24 guesthouse. I'm sorry about the any inconvenience you experienced. Next time, We will be best to give you best experience as we can. Thanks!
This was my 3rd or 4th times to stay at this resident. Because this place is very comfortable for transportation if you want to stay in garosugil area.
The room and toilet are not that clean, have hair and some red things on the floor. When we ask for help, recreation staff said: this is not hotel... Although she help us to clean up at last, but we still checked out on next day and change to other place. Bad memory!!!
This room was booked on behalf on my friend and hence, the reviews were from her. First day of book-in was fine. Receptionist's attitude was so-so but it was understandable as I booked in at around 1am(I've stated 12 midnight in the special request). I've booked the 6 beds/room and the price was fine too. However, there were mosquitoes in the room. I spotted a mosquito as big as the size of my thumb sucking my blood and the rest of the 5 guests could also been seen covering their whole body with blanket(I assumed that they were trying to protect themselves from the mosquitoes). I immediately went to the reception counter and requested an upgrade of room. Receptionist also stated that they will spray the insect repellent in the room. Luckily, there was an empty bed in a 3 beds/room and I managed to upgrade it for around SGD$15 for 5 days(can't clearly remember the amount). The 3 beds/room was clean and its condition was much better than the previous. Overall, the stay in this hostel was average. Probably the few good things was its location.
My mate was bitten by bed bugs. Overall, room is clean and washing machine is free for use. Staff is friendly.
Breakfast provided. Easily Located. Comfy Bed.
It was good, near the shopping area of garosu-gil too.
pretty standard, clean room and friendly staff. Just love the location the most. Worth what you pay for and save up your money for the shopping.


text:
← Super Tuesday thread #4 – Apocalypse This weekend's primaries: More of the same? →
Post-election poll evaluation (preliminary)
March 2nd, 2016, 6:39pm by Sam Wang
Post-Super Tuesday analysis is delayed a bit because of foreign travels. A preliminary look:
In terms of popular vote, both parties' votes went about as expected. Here is a plot of currently-reported vote as a function of pre-election polls:
Trump, Cruz, and Rubio each outperformed their pre-election polls by a median of 4-5 percentage points. This across-the-board bonus is probably driven by last-minute decisions by undeclared voters. The net outcome is to give slightly more delegates to Cruz and Rubio than my forecast indicated, because Cruz/Rubio would get above threshold in a greater number of states and Congressional districts.
Weighted by per-state delegates, the popular vote was Trump 33.8%, Cruz 29.0%, Rubio 22.4%. This reflects in part the fact that some of these states were strong for Cruz relative to national opinion. Since Trump is polling higher nationally, with a current median of 44% (4 surveys at HuffPollster). For that reason alone, we might expect Trump to do better in the weeks remaining.
Generally, it appears that Trump is headed for a majority of delegates. I would be surprised if there were a contested convention. I'll refine those thoughts later.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders pulled out some wins in addition to Vermont that were not indicated by polls, in Oklahoma and Colorado. That has to be heartening for his campaign. However, it still looks like Hillary Clinton is still on track to get a majority of delegates – not even counting the superdelegates.
Finally…greetings from Hong Kong! That's me on the right.
115 Comments so far ↓
Olav Grinde // Mar 2, 2016 at 6:49 pm
A question, if I may: Do we know anything about how the ex-Jeb / Rand Paul / Christie / Huckabee / Santorum / Fiorina are breaking for the remaining candidates? Who has benefited most from these dropping out?
Not to mention the Perry / Jindal / Walker / Graham / Gilmore / Pataki supporters…
(Apologies, but I am sure I've forgotten at least one or two GOP Presidential candidates.)
Matt McIrvin // Mar 4, 2016 at 12:59 am
Ben Carson just dropped out, so we should start seeing polls without him in them shortly. I'm curious to see where his very devoted 8% or so are going to go. It's not a lot of voters, but if we're talking about whether the Republicans can hold Trump below 50% of delegates, small numbers could be crucial.
Rubio, Kasich and Trump have all been rising since Jeb, Christie and the last clot of minor candidates dropped out, but it's hard to say if that's because of their supporters (Cruz has been losing support too).
Scott Walker's final slide to oblivion coincided with the short-lived Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina bubbles, but Trump was still gaining too.
Niels Damrauer // Mar 2, 2016 at 7:08 pm
Sam, is there any information about whether Trump's support draws significantly from folks who normally dont vote? Is there a vast supply of these kinds of votes?
It is difficult to predict the behavior of a system like this delegate allocation where they have engineered in such large non-linearities with the thresholds.
I hope you tipped that limo driver well. He has the look of a guy who's just about had it up to here with these American professors.
Some Body // Mar 3, 2016 at 3:07 am
Maybe Sam meant the photo to be a spoof on the Christie-behind-Trump meme…
Romney is making a major speech tomorrow not to endorse anyone but to anti-endorse Trump. I can't remember anything like this. I guess if they were rational, Cruz and Kasich would tell Floridians to vote Rubio, and Rubio and Cruz would tell Ohioans to vote for Kasich, and then Cruz would get a personality transplant prior to the convention. Or something.
Brian // Mar 3, 2016 at 4:09 am
" I guess if they were rational, Cruz and Kasich would tell Floridians to vote Rubio, and Rubio and Cruz would tell Ohioans to vote for Kasich,"
That's interesting. Wouldn't it offend high minded voters and drive Trump turnout sky-high? I think the best you can do is have the other spoilers refrain from campaigning in your home state.
Just Dropping By // Mar 3, 2016 at 9:15 am
The Romney speech seems like one of the most ill-advised bits of strategy in American presidential politics of all time. Romney wasn't particularly well-liked when he was the candidate in 2012, so it hardly seems plausible that he'll have much influence. Conversely, by attacking Trump, it basically gives Trump a full day of free media coverage in which Trump gets to say crowd-pleasing things like, "Last time I checked, Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama. Who cares what a loser thinks?"
whirlaway // Mar 3, 2016 at 9:31 am
Yes, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich will have to hang together to defeat Trump. If they don't hang together, they will hang separately, and Trump will get past the 1237 magic number.
Latichever // Mar 3, 2016 at 9:41 am
Brings to mind the temporary alliances in the Hunger Games.
Matt McIrvin // Mar 3, 2016 at 2:00 pm
Here in Massachusetts I know a bunch of mostly-Democratic-voting centrists who still have a certain amount of nostalgia for the seemingly moderate Mitt Romney of 2002, and dismiss the 2012 edition as an artifact of the needs of a Republican presidential primary candidate. They might actually vote for him in preference to Hillary Clinton if he jumped into the race somehow.
I think they are nationally atypical, though. Speaking personally, his (failed) obstructionist games over same-sex marriage in 2003-04 soured me on him.
Given the current delegate selection process, this means that I would vote for Marco Rubio in Florida, John Kasich in Ohio, and for Ted Cruz or whichever one of the other two contenders has the best chance of beating Mr. Trump in a given state, — Mitt Romney
Rubio and Cruz just promised last night to vote for Trump if he's nominated. As Josh Marshall pointed out, even Mitt Romney didn't rule out the possibility: his anti-Trump barnburner had to have an aside about how Hillary Clinton was history's greatest monster.
It really makes their anti-Trump posturing absurd. It makes perfect sense, in any normal primary campaign, to pledge to support the party's nominee after the convention. It's what you're supposed to do. But these guys are, probably accurately, describing Trump as an unserious, ignorant, absurd bigot who will turn the nation into a blighted hellscape, and starting to craft scenarios for the party to fall on its sword if his nomination looms. There's hardly anywhere to go down from there, and they're *still* making their little support pledge.
Kevin // Mar 4, 2016 at 12:09 pm
This scenario comes down to "push out Cruz." After all, you need Rubio to stay in to win FL, and Kasich to stay in to win OH. Cruz is not leaving. He's in clear second place and according to Nate Cohn he can look forward to winning five more states, which while insufficient to win the nomination could be consequential for his career. Also, what about the history of Ted Cruz makes you believe he is ready to stand aside for the (supposed) good of the party?
Jim Hafford // Mar 2, 2016 at 8:25 pm
A brokered convention has become the topic du jour of talk shows like MTP Daily and Trump futures have dropped by around 10% on Predictit . This appears to be one of the few websites with nothing to gain by stoking controversy.
amit // Mar 2, 2016 at 10:50 pm
A convention where Trump fails in the first balloting and loses further support in subsequent rounds would require national Republicans to exercise substantial influence on state and county level Republicans who pick delegates. Delegates across the country would have to instructed on how to defect to the chosen anti-Trump candidate.
After the convention these state level officials would face the wrath of the Trump voters. I suspect they do not hold members of the DC area Republican establishment in such high esteem that they would risk their political careers.
amit: Delegates aren't usually employed by voters.
They're hand-picked loyalists for candidates and therefore unlikely to defect.
But each state party gets to substitute party leadership members — a chairman and two committeemen — for pledged delegates. In most states they will be substituted for Trump delegates. Party officials are chosen by state delegates and somewhat but not totally immune to voters and often ambitious for GOPe jobs.
So you can expect that up to 150 Trump delegates will be substituted with establishment loyalists.
In some states, like NY, the party apparat gets to hand pick delegates themselves that candidates have earned. In New York, the party committee picks eleven delegates — probably all Trump — and will probably pick establishment hacks that dispise Trump.
The result is that Trump needs about 1,300 or 1,350 to get a win on the first ballot.
Delegates are supposedly bound, but only on the first ballot. For credential challenges to throw out Trump delegates, they're free to vote how they wish. For a vote to unbind all delegates, they're free to vote as they wish. Therefore anything short of an unquestionable Trump-loyal majority is enough to allow a brokered convention.
Nevertheless I agree with our host. Trump is likely to pass 1,350. Remember that the Bible Belt and the south is not a strong region for Trump because of all the Religious Right evangelicals. He'll do much better in the Midwest and northeast and west (outside the far-right west: UT, WY, ID).
RDT // Mar 3, 2016 at 10:28 am
Even if Trump were to get to the convention without a majority, I find hard to imagine a scenario where the choice isn't either Trump or Cruz.
amit // Mar 3, 2016 at 1:31 pm
Frankly, the DC-based Republican establishment seems to be a cauldron of powerlessness. I doubt they have much sway with ground level Republicans in the states. The anti-Trump delegate packing you describe may well happen, but not because Rove or Preibus picked up the phone and gave orders.
Here in NJ of course the delegate packing could go pro-Trump given our governor's preferences. And to think this guy is my titular boss.
Nice photo , Sam. I like the contrast between your smile and the deadpan on the driver.
Also after a couple of hours listening to the wild speculations of the news media, it is a breath of fresh air reading a date driven reasoned approach.
Lindsey Graham indicated that it was unlikely that anything said by establishment elders like Romney was unlikely to swing many votes. The number of contenders needs to drop, hopefully after March 15th.
Bill Herschel // Mar 2, 2016 at 9:04 pm
Thank you for referring us to The Mule.
From the Onion:
GOP Statisticians Develop New Branch Of Math To Formulate Scenarios In Which Trump Doesn't Win Nomination.
http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463
538 Refugee // Mar 2, 2016 at 10:08 pm
Meh. Karl Rove beat them to it.
In physics the cliche answer to grand unification (of gravity and quantum mechanics) is always "we need to develop a new type of math". I heard it when I was in high school, and now I spout similar stuff when I give talks at high schools.
So Rubio will win! Somewhere somehow. You need to understand how the multiverse works.
You could also change the title to "Nate Silver trying to save face"
One article I read said Trump supporters are woefully ignorant about much of his past. This would explain his ability to endure self inflicted wounds. It looks like the attacks may have had a small but telling effect on Super Tuesday results. They are going to get pretty ferocious now since they appeared to work at least some. This could get even more interesting. Cruz and Rubio will do everything in their power to make Trump melt down in the next debate. Trump might find an excuse to sit this one out. THIS is 'reality TV'.
JayBoy2k // Mar 2, 2016 at 11:35 pm
This seems counter_intuitive. We see a concept that , as a normally respected individual attacks Trump, Trump's support goes up and the attacker's support goes down… Jeb Bush,, Marco Rubio. In order to change someone's mind, they have to see you as trusted or credible.
Frank Luntz did a session with Trump Supporters, testing the depth of support befre feeding them 2 hours of anti_Trump ads and rhetoric. Not surprisingly support for Trump among previous trump supporters went up.
I imagine the same thing happens with fervent Hillary or Sanders supporters.
Negative ads are targeted to those who have yet to make up their minds.
I am not sure that there are a lot of persuadable Republican primary voters at this point, given Trump National polls — If Trump holds his 44% and Rubio, Cruz, Kasich all stay in …….
Sean Patrick Santos // Mar 3, 2016 at 2:08 am
I think that this mistates the nature of Trump support. When people say that he's a "straight-shooter" or that "he says what he means", they don't literally mean that he always says things that are true. Rather, they mean that what he says is exactly what he wants to say in the moment. The virtue that they are praising is *absolutely not* honesty. It is *bravery* (to stand up to "political correctness"), and also *loyalty* (to a certain conception of what the USA is).
This way of framing things may be a bit off-topic for this blog, but it does easily explain why Trump's statements have not hurt his support. He's leveraging the US honor culture, in which the highest virtues are saying what you mean, and never backing down from a fight. His past is irrelevant, as long as he does those two things.
Why not also offer all convention delegates a magic pony, while you're at it?
Some Body // Mar 3, 2016 at 4:37 pm
[The comments here (mine and Amit's below) are replies to a hence-deleted message with a not-very-realistic scenario described in it]
erm, is this better? lost track of the thread.
and yes, I do screen comments for degree of realism and civility…
Bela Lubkin // Mar 4, 2016 at 6:07 pm
The GOP could attempt to game their own system to stop Trump from getting the nomination on the first ballot. The phrase "Seekrit Deal" is an "open secret" — not publicly acknowledged, but known to all; like the dog whistles they've been using for years.
The key point was that if having two near-20% contenders in the race (Cruz, Rubio) — gives Trump the advantage of non-linearity in so many states; then having only one, presumably holding his own + more than half of the other's voters, might take away that advantage.
And as the Party Elders have no control over Cruz, the only one who could drop out to offer a chance at that path is Rubio.
Democrats online are now in a panic because many more Republicans turned out on Super Tuesday than Democrats.
I suppose that panic is motivationally useful. But it also fails to take into account that there were more red states than blue states at issue, and the biggest one by far was Texas. One might be able to extract more material for fear from the fact that more Republicans than Democrats turned out in Virginia, but the R primary was also excitingly close there, and the D primary wasn't at all.
amit // Mar 3, 2016 at 6:54 am
Primaries are usually low engagement affairs, and about a thousand extra people showing up counts as an overwhelming turnout. General election turnout is much higher as a rule.
A lot of this "brokered convention" and "X panic because Y" talk is writers needing to fill column-inches.
Fritz // Mar 3, 2016 at 7:20 am
Dem primary turnout in 1980 is still higher than R's record 2016 turnout. 1980 didn't work out very well for Democrats.
I think a lot of people are mostly worried that Trump has some army of first-time or normally-disengaged voters that he's going to turn out, and blow away all the models and predictions. But if that were so, wouldn't we see him massively overperforming his primary polling (which he isn't doing)?
There are also a lot of Bernie Sanders fans who had convinced themselves through approval and head-to-head polls that only Sanders can beat Trump, and are now getting really depressed and frightened at the prospect of Bernie not winning the nomination, because they think Hillary can't win.
1988, 2nd highest Democratic primary turnout in history. Bush won.
2000, 3 million more Republicans than Democrats voted in the primaries. Gore won the popular vote.
But mostly, I've just seen it anecdotally. Someone should crunch the numbers.
Olav Grinde // Mar 3, 2016 at 9:52 am
Matt, I think a key argument against the claim that Bernie-would-do-better in the general election is this:
The Republican candidates and PACs have been very careful not to attack Bernie Sanders. In the unlikelihood that Bernie becomes the nominee, those polls would look very different after the GOP spends a couple of hundred million dollars on an attack campaign against "that dangerous and deranged socialist from Vermont".
I am surprised that Bernie has done this well so far. However, to many American voters the words socialism and tax increases are so toxic that they exclude any possibility of rational discussion.
Trump or any other candidate would use them to stoke anxieties to a feverish pitch.
538 Refugee // Mar 3, 2016 at 11:36 am
I've been afraid of this and this is why Bill Clinton says he sees a very tough matchup between Trump and Clinton in an article I linked a few days ago.
"About 1,000 Democrats in Mahoning County so far have switched their party affiliation to Republican with election officials saying several did it to vote for Donald Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner."
http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/mar/03/mahoning-co-sees-k-voters-defect-to-gop/
Matt McIrvin // Mar 3, 2016 at 12:36 pm
I know some usually-Democratic voters who crossed over specifically to vote against Trump.
I just saw a graphic from MSNBC comparing turnout on Super Tuesday between 2008 and 2016. Then, many more Democrats turned out. This time, many more Republicans turned out. The Republicans have the energy!!!
I took five minutes and looked up the maps. Super Tuesday 2008 was a historically gigantic affair that included a bunch of populous deep-blue states, including California, New York and New Jersey, but not Texas.
On Super Tuesday 2016, there were seven deep-red states and three deep-blue states (the largest of which was Massachusetts), and the only really large state involved was Texas.
Any deal in which a thousand delegates from all 50 states are in the know isn't very seekrit. Or workable.
Florida will be interesting. Rubio is behind in the polls, but he's going to unload a heap of stuff in Trump. Kind of a lab experiment to see what might work–or not.
And a key question: All those Republicans pledging not to support or vote for Trump. Does that help or hurt?
bks // Mar 3, 2016 at 12:13 pm
Trump has trounced native sons Bush and Rubio in the polls in Florida. I'm not sure that FL is a lock for Hillary in the Clinton v. Trump election.
This is a good example of a category error. Republican primary LV != general election LV.
Codswallop. The state was already very close. There is excitement in only one party and only for one candidate. Let me know when Hillary draws 15,000 to a rally in Tampa Bay and I'll reconsider.
Ah yes, the rally of thousands as electoral indicator. You are in good company Mr. Sherman!
Here's Peggy Noonan on Nov. 5 2012:
http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
Romney's crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn't only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he's caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what's going on at the rallies is moving.
There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there's the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.
I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what's coming, and it's part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.
DaveM // Mar 3, 2016 at 6:20 pm
Yeah, I can remember watching Bruce Springsteen on TV at a rollicking Kerry rally in Madison, Wisconsin and thinking, 'he's going to win this thing."
Yeah polls are the only real piece of information. And yeah, they suck. But everything else — betting markets, GDP, google search metrics, unemployment rate, twitter followers, yard signs, rallies… — is useless and contains no new information.
The difference is that Obama's crowds were five times as large as Romney's.
Amitabh Lath // Mar 3, 2016 at 11:00 pm
Actually Obama rallies in 2012 were smaller than Romney's. Some chicken littles in the Democratic establishment were actually worried about it. Obama administration claimed they were keeping the size down on purpose.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/10/us/politics/campaign-events-for-president-obama-are-not-drawing-crowds-like-2008.html?_r=0
mediaglyphic // Mar 3, 2016 at 12:32 pm
there seems to be some speculation that Romney's speech is an indication that he wants the nomination and wants to engineer a brokered convention. Does anyone know if an individual with no delegates can be nominated in rounds 2 and beyond?
Mark F. // Mar 3, 2016 at 12:51 pm
I should think so. They can change the rules after the first ballot if they want.
Mark F. // Mar 3, 2016 at 1:06 pm
Editorial comment: Nominating Romney again would be laughable, but not impossible.
does anyone know the republican convention rules regarding candidate eligibility? Can Romney be nominated even if he doesn't have any delegates? (in later rounds).
Froggy // Mar 3, 2016 at 3:01 pm
Rule 40(b) requires that a candidate must have written support from a majority of delegates in eight states for his or her name to be put into nomination. https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/Call%20of%20the%202016%20Convention_1448920406.pdf
However many have pointed out that these are temporary rules that are subject to change once the delegates assemble in Cleveland. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/13/why_rule_40_wont_affect_the_gop_primary_outcome_129012.html
538 is claiming that Trump is just "barely" on track to win the nomination. That does not take into account that his poll averages are close to those of Cruz and Rubio combined, and that there are a bunch of winner take all states coming up. They sure want to make this into more of a horse race than it really is, right? Of course, it's not impossible that Trump will fail, but there are very few indications that he will at this point. He may have the cake fully baked on March 15.
Josh // Mar 3, 2016 at 2:45 pm
Yeah I saw that and shook my head. I know ESPN needs page views and all, but ugh.
A question: Any evidence that Democrats are voting for Trump in the GOP primaries in order to wreck the GOP?
Look at the article I linked to below. There may be some doing as you suggest but the people fielding the phone calls seems to indicate there is a true enthusiasm to vote for Trump.
Concerning the general: what is the likely effect in previously close Florida of the fairly massive addition of Puerto Ricans in the last year or two? My understanding is that they are normally overwhelmingly Democratic (and are, of course, all citizens fully entitled to vote). If the numbers are in the range I've heard (50,000 or more), would that tip the state blue?
This is all back of the envelope…
IIRC about 4.3 million people voted in FL in 2012, so let's say 4.5 mil will vote in 2016. 50K is slightly more than 1% of that total. Florida went for Obama by < 1% in 2012 even though he won the country by 4%, so FL is probably 3-4% to the right of the US as a whole. So by this admittedly slapdash math, no, the 50k Puerto Rican immigrants wouldn't, on their own, flip FL. This also doesn't take into account all the mostly white, relatively wealthy retirees who are constantly moving to the state.
IMHO, FL in 2016 will probably be somewhere around 3% to the right of the US as a whole. A decent Dem win would include FL; a nail-biter would not.
ETA: Obama's share of the vote was 4.3 mil; the total vote was more like 8.5 mil. 50K would mean even less.
Eric Walker // Mar 4, 2016 at 3:59 am
I now find that I was underestimating the numbers. Apparently, it's about 50,000 a year, and that has been going on for several years now.
Considering that the margin in the lasy round was razor-thin, I do have to believe that this matters. Apparently, from the efforts being expeneded there, so do both parties.
Josh // Mar 4, 2016 at 9:20 am
Sure. 200K since the last election would be, out of 9 million voters, about 2%. But you make several big assumptions:
1. All these immigrants are adults of voting age
2. All these adults will vote
3. All these adults will vote D
4. Nobody else has moved to FL in this time
Since 1-4 are all not exactly correct, I have to believe the net benefit to the Dems in FL is less than 2%. Again, a relatively solid Dem performance would involve FL, but in a national election where the popular vote is basically tied (say, a Gore-Bush kind of election), FL will go to the GOP candidate.
It is true that not all are adults, and not all will vote. But counterbalancing that is the fact that besides direct immigrationb from PR, there has been a substantial flow of Puerto Ricans already in the U.S., chiefly (I believe) from NYC and Chicago to the Orlando area. As to others moving to Florida, I see no special reason to assume that such others would differ nontrivially from the established inflow to the state.
Puerto Ricans typically go very heavily (c. 80%?) for Democrats, and most are said to be very excited about the new opportunity to vote for a president (which they cannot in PR). Registration and GOTV movementgs are at high pitch in the state.
I dunno man…if FL was 3-4% right of the US overall in 2012, and 9 million people voted, that means the Dems would have to gain at least 300,000 net voters to tip FL blue. The whole state in that time added only 500,000 people. So 400,000 of that 500,000 would have to be adult voters who always vote and who always vote Dem.
I know you want FL to be blue really badly, and honestly, since I agree with you that it does seem to be moving ever so slightly leftward again, I don't want to burst your bubble. But math, dude. It's hard to argue with math.
"[I]f FL was 3-4% right of the US overall in 2012, and 9 million people voted, that means the Dems would have to gain at least 300,000 net voters to tip FL blue."
Well, in 2012 Obama received 4,237,756 votes, which was 50.01% of the 8,474,179 total, and just 74,309 votes more than Romney. I would say that the math suggests that, say, 100,000 more net Democratic votes is a meaningful–I am tempted to say major–improvement.
(Whence 100,000? Say 50,000 a year from PR for four years and maybe 50,000 more from within the U.S. in that same period; that's 250,000 gross. Apportion them by sympathies as 70% D, not actually unreasonable–non-Cuban Latinos in Florida went for Obama 66-34 in 2012–and you have 175,000. I don't know how to estimate the percentage that are over 18 , but let's say 2/3; that leaves about 115,000. Assume 85% registration of eligible voters abd it's 100,000.
Once again, I don't disagree that all of these new voters (assuming your information is accurate) would have the effect of pushing FL to the left. What it sounds like you're asking is, HOW MUCH would it move left. And even if the Dems get 100,000 net new voters, FL is still going to end up in the GOP column if the national popular vote is close to tied.
I know this because Obama won the popular vote in 2012 by 4% but only won FL by less than 1%. This is more than a 3% difference. 3% of 9 million voters is 270,000. 100,000 net new D voters may move FL a point or so left, but–again–it won't tip the state blue.
IF the trends you describe continue, and IF these new D voters are not neutralized in any way, FL may become blue in 2-3 election cycles. But it will not happen this year.
I am unclear about why you think the national percentages are going to swing so far rightward of what they were the last two cycles. Is having a loony-tune neo-Nazi running going to suddenly switch tons of votes over to the right? The last Republican I spoke with (SSS warning), a gun-carrier from Montana, was appalled and volunteered the Hitler comparison (not favorably).
I see a national constituency in which there may be a little traffic from left to right, and a similar traffic right to left, but that will be on balance at worst no farther right than in the last couple of cycles.
Do you feel differently? And, if so, why?
Richard // Mar 4, 2016 at 11:38 pm
First off, FL isn't staying static even without the addition of the Boricua. It's slowly turning blue and while Hispanics have low turnout and Mexican-Americans are the most put off by Trump, other Hispanics don't find his language a positive either. Nor do Jews. Or Blacks. And the rich white folks who move to FL are the core of the anti-Trump movement in the GOP, not Trump's base. And FL isn't very rural. Put it all together, and I wouldn't be surprised if FL is close to the national median in 2016.
I actually DON'T think "the national percentages are going to swing so far rightward of what they were the last two cycles." I think America has moved slightly leftward over the last few cycles. I also think FL, by contrast, up until the last few years, has remained relatively static. Which is why, in 2000, Al Gore (probably) won FL while also barely winning the national vote, while in 2012, Obama barely won FL while easily winning the national vote.
Do you understand?
But the left-to-right and right-to-left traffic will be in different states, and that's where the interesting things are happening.
If you'd asked me eight years ago what a Hillary Clinton candidacy would do to the electoral map, going by 2008, I'd have gotten it wrong. That year, Hillary Clinton was the white candidate for the nomination, and her relative strength was with the white working class, in more rural and Rust Belt areas.
This year, when it comes to regional/racial divides (rather than generational ones), Clinton 2016 is like Obama 2008 and Sanders 2016 is Clinton 2008. Clinton is turning out black voters in the Southeast and Sanders is getting the disaffected white working class.
But the divides have gotten more intense. If Clinton is the nominee, it looks as if Virginia is going to keep getting bluer, but the Dems are still going to have to fight very hard for Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Pennsylvania was trending bluer for years, but the polls I've seen suggest that that might actually reverse; I'm very worried about Pennsylvania.
Sanders' fans have an argument that Sanders would be stronger against Trump because he can compete better in Trump's stronger areas, whereas blacks will turn out against Trump anyway. Whether it's true or not, it's probably moot because Sanders will not get the nomination. But if Clinton loses, I know we'll be hearing this forever.
Josh // Mar 5, 2016 at 10:26 am
Matt, I think (?) Eric's argument is that FL will have turned so much bluer over the last few years that any D candidate who wins the national vote will also implicitly have won FL. There's plenty of evidence that this isn't true, even though we both clearly agree that if Eric's numbers are correct, it's highly likely FL won't be as far right as it was in 2012.
I also think Eric thinks that a state's overall partisan lean can be significantly influenced by a one-off election–that is, if Trump ran, it would "move" FL one way or the other. What I keep trying to explain is that how a state votes is, to a small degree, a reflection of the candidates involved, but is mostly a consequence of that state's overall partisan composition. A weaker Obama and a stronger Romney in 2012 might have seen FL go Republican–but we're talking a percentage here or there.
"What I keep trying to explain is that how a state votes is, to a small degree, a reflection of the candidates involved, but is mostly a consequence of that state's overall partisan composition."
I agree; my thesis is that the partisan composition has changed nontrivially. Even if my very rough reckoning is off by double, adding a net of 50,000 more Democratic votes in Florida is quite consequential to the partisan composition. In what presidential election ever would 50,000 more Democratic votes not have assured the state?
The reports of huge numbers of Democrats switching parties to vote for Trump has various liberals on blogs I read freaking out.
I ask, again: if this is happening to an electorally significant degree, why isn't Trump overperforming his polls (relative to his rivals) in the actual primary results? If those Democrats switched at the last minute, they wouldn't have appeared in polls of Republicans, would they?
Davey // Mar 4, 2016 at 2:14 am
Liberals like to freak out, it's one of our primary functions.
Modern politics are, for some reason, rife with examples of the behavior of an extreme minority, and then ascribing huge importance to it without substantiation. How many voters are defecting to support Trump? Is it statistically significant? How does it weigh against voters coming into the party to vote against Trump?
In Massachusetts, about 17,000 voters switched from Democrat to Independent. The bigger picture is that this is only about 1.3% of the state's Dem voters. Even bigger picture…far more than this registered as New Democrats last year (62,000, per the registrar of voters). Even bigger…whatever happened to those 17k voters, it will be far easier to get numbers by getting known Democrats to vote than it will be to figure out what happened there.
The narrative that Democrats are defecting to Trump is compelling for obvious reasons, but there's no data to indicate this is true yet.
Scott // Mar 4, 2016 at 7:53 am
It seems possible to me that part of the reason the GOP turnout has been so high is that just as many are turning out to vote against Trump as for him. Some of these could be Dems who'd like to see him get to the general against HRC.
And even larger number of moderate Republicans and independents who would ordinarily never vote for Hillary or usually vote GOP will be pulling the lever for a Democrat for the first time ever, if Trump is the GOP candidate.
And those Democrats voting for Trump would be the conservative Reagan Democrats who never vote for a Democrat in Presidential elections anyway.
ben // Mar 4, 2016 at 6:48 am
As a neuroscientist and student of politics, do you have any thoughts on the analysis of Scott Adams, erstwhile Dilbert cartoonist and now political blogger, regarding Trump's apparently extraordinarily persuasive and indeed hypnotic speech capabilities?
1: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/126589300371/clown-genius
2: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/127791494211/nate-silver-gives-trump-2-chance-of-getting
3 (index): http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list
Scott Adams is a crank who believes that repeatedly affirming things can alter the nature of reality and that gravity happens because everything in the universe is getting bigger. I'm not sure I'd trust him on psychology.
Thank you for answering this question.
@Matt & @Sam: Thank you both! Very reassuring!
Old plan was consolidate behind one anti-Trump. New plan is forget consolidation, everyone stay in and win your home state plus one or two more to prevent Trump getting 1237. Does the math even work? (say you assign unpolled states on the basis of national poll numbers)?
I can see the dominant anti-Trump strategy post-March 15. Step 1: procure a time machine…
Kevin // Mar 4, 2016 at 11:54 am
Nate Cohn has a good post on this. The math doesn't work unless Trump's poll margins erode.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/upshot/if-super-tuesday-voting-pattern-continues-donald-trump-will-reach-delegate-target.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Mark F. // Mar 4, 2016 at 10:54 am
A question for my Democrat friends: Are you happy that Trump may be the nominee or are you concerned?
Amitabh Lath // Mar 4, 2016 at 11:13 am
There are Chinese plans to build a proton collider approximately 10x the LHC, near Beijing. President Trump, not to be outdone, would greenlight an even bigger American collider. It would be (wait for it) yuuuge. We wait with bated breath to present blueprints to Secretary of Energy Kim Kardashian.
I'm sure whatever your field of research, you can find the upside of a Trump administration.
bks // Mar 4, 2016 at 11:28 am
Last June when Trump soared in the polls he was not taken seriously and now he's a near-lock for the nomination and the Democrats are also not taking him seriously. I'm concerned. While it's true that Hillary has the more impressive political resume, she also has Iraq, Syria and Libya on the resume. When Schwartzenegger ran for Governor of California he was laughed at and laughed at, and then he won. Lots of time for black swans to swim into view between now and November.
mediaglyphic // Mar 4, 2016 at 11:28 am
more concerned than happy.
IMHO The probrability of a clinton win is higher if trump is nominated.
however the fact that the probability of a trump presidency is also higher if he is nominated, makes the expected outcome worse, since a trump presidency has such a negative outcome.
I don't understand how the outcomes of a Trump presidency are worse than the outcomes of, e.g., a Rubio presidency, unless the primary outcome you are interested in is protecting norms of public civility. This question is off topic, however.
Joseph // Mar 4, 2016 at 11:57 am
I expect we'll see a kinder, gentler Mr. Trump show up for the general. Whether that will erase his present image of a buffoon remains to be seen. It's when we can actually contrast the two candidates side by side that we'll see who has the most charisma.
The bottom line is that we now live in a very dangerous world, and we know it. I don't think the majority of people are going to pick their leader lightly. The raw fact is that it's going to be hard for some to vote for a woman in these dangerous times. But Mrs Clinton is one tough, seasoned cookie, so if any woman can get the job, it's her.
So yes, I'd say Mr. Trump is the Dem's best shot at keeping the Presidency.
If you ignore Trump's personality and focus on the issues: on immigration, taxes, and healthcare he has the same stance as Cruz and Rubio, albeit more colorful (build a wall). In fact on healthcare he may be slightly more progressive than Cruz.
On reproductive rights he is as anti-abortion as the rest of the GOP, but non as anti-Planned Parenthood as Cruz or Rubio.
On military interventions and entitlements, his statements sound almost lefty-progressive. Of course he condones torture enthusiastically but so do Cruz and Rubio.
For the Supreme Court he would probably nominate someone more centrist than Cruz would.
So my question to back to you Mark F: Why should the prospect of Trump as nominee be more or less terrifying to a Democrat than Cruz or Rubio?
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-general-election
Trump doesn't echo the full slate of conservative-movement positions all the time, so by that yardstick he seems more "moderate".
Trump also directly incites his crowds to violent acts, vilifies minorities explicitly without the usual dog-whistle coding, and seems to be trying his best to maintain a fandom and white supremacists and neo-Nazis by carefully softpedaling any denunciation of them that he's called upon to make. The mere fact that he's a major figure is normalizing behavior that was previously among the most intense American political taboos. If he were to actually win, I would expect violent racists to be emboldened to the point of a huge explosion in hate crimes, at the very least. I expect it to happen to some degree even from the situation we're in now.
That's why he mostly concerns me. It's something you can't see by reading a policy wish list.
Kevin // Mar 4, 2016 at 4:08 pm
Assuming for the sake of argument there is a violence incitement effect, I don't see how that compares to the wars Rubio wants to start.
The only norm Trump is breaking is one of subtlety. The position of the GOP on race politics is well known.
mediaglyphic // Mar 4, 2016 at 4:08 pm
Amit, can you honestly say how trump would act?
Media, no we cannot say with any certainty how Trump would act. Same for Cruz, would he really order the carpetbombing of Syrian cities under ISIS control? Would Rubio really cancel the Iran deal and reimpose sanctions?
All we have are the statements these candidates make. Guessing what is "really in their hearts" is beyond my meager abilities.
i think the uncertainty around trump is larger. the other two are beholden to the folks that fund them. trump is beholden to the mob. thats why i think trump is scarier. i am extremely troubled by his kkk dance, it just shows no awareness.
btw, i am a penn grad and knew a few of his profs. word on campus was that he was a c student (i was there many years after he was)
Happy. See, for example, this note on today's Electoral Vote site:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/#item-9
Media, that's very astute. If I may paraphrase, a candidate controlled by The Mob is better than one controlled by the mob.
Which candidate do you think is more likely to put certain groups of people in concentration camps if there is a war? Do you think that is equally likely?
As a minority, that matters to me.
And don't say that can't happen in the US. It happened before in this country. Ask the Nisei and their descendents.
I also do not believe that Trump is the least electable of the Republicans; he's probably the most electable.
There isn't enough state-by-state polling yet to make good Sam Wang-style predictions, but the most recent state general election polls I've seen (some of which are annoyingly stale) suggest that if the election were held today between Trump and Clinton, Clinton might win the popular vote but Trump would be weakly favored to win the Electoral College, by getting Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
His strength in those three states makes him extremely dangerous. They're all states that could be flipped by high minority turnout, though given Trump's ability to motivate angry white people (also in abundance in those states), the bar is going to be high.
…though since the polls in those three states are in or near the MoE and he'd have to get all three to win it, his win probability may not actually be above 50%.
Among the Obama 2012 states, Trump leads with more confidence in Colorado, but it doesn't have as many electoral votes. And Hillary Clinton is surprisingly strong in Virginia and NH, and has an outside shot at winning NC, which would be a good vote buffer.
Brian // Mar 5, 2016 at 10:00 am
As a Democrat, I'd really like to see a brokered convention on the Republican side. That should create a sulking faction and an easy win for Hillary in November.
But Trump is also a fine nominee. We can dream of a completely unelectable Republican like Rubio or Cruz but they were never likely nominees. Trump has by far the best chance of winning the general election of any Republican, but Hillary is still the favorite. The best thing about a Trump nomination is what it means for the future of the Republican Party.
The Republican Party is a machine that sells middle class values to the people and then works for the plutocracy in Washington. The result is gridlock where not even business issues can advance. For example, Obama has been working on a corporate income tax cut for years to reduce corporate inversions and Republican leaders have stonewalled him because they can't be seen as cooperating. It's a Republican business issue favorite so they should want it. But their credibility with the base depends on opposing Obama at every turn. Otherwise they risk breaking the illusion and being exposed as the party that undercuts working class incomes while never promoting any kind of social conservative agenda.
Trump breaks the dichotomy of fooling the base and serving the donors. Eventually things will calm down and we should have a more honestly Trumpian Republican Party. That party will be interested in compromise and governing once again and Washington will be able to get work done.
So Trump is good for the country, if only because the syndrome he's exposing is worse.
Richard: this specific outcome is unlikely. However, I would select Rubio. He exhibits the highest tendency towards overreaction and an almost pathological exclusion of nuance from his world view. I would also expect Rubio's White House to be controlled by ideological advisers much in the way of George W. Bush, who introduced us to torture, rendition, indefinite offshore detention of "enemy combatants" without representation or trial, and preemptive elective war. Again, this is off topic, but thanks for asking.
Some people assume that when Trump is admired for being politically incorrect, this is just code for saying that he's racist or misogynist. But there can be little doubt that most "politically incorrect" thing Trump has done in the literal sense of the term is to denounce George W. Bush and his administration in a Republican primary, to say nothing of his (accurate) comments about John McCain and Mitt Romney. I will not be voting for Trump, but I would not fault someone for arguing that he has shown higher character in his conduct of the race than his Republican opponents, which is admittedly a low bar.
Bill Herschel // Mar 4, 2016 at 12:27 pm
The greatest gift of this website, and there are many, is potentially enabling its readers to ignore the campaign.
That and introducing me to The Mule. I now have an additional black hole to destroy my time with. Maybe that's not such a good thing.
I think we can can safely ignore the Democratic Party campaign, barring something unexpected happening with Mrs. Clinton. But the Republicans still have the (probably small) possibility of a contested convention.
Looks like the Cruz folks are planning on making sure Rubio doesn't win Florida. The reasoning is that will push Rubio out of the race making it a two person race. It also returns the 'favor' of Rubio denying Cruz 50% in Texas thus depriving Cruz of all the statewide delegates in his home state.
Unless they are absolutely sure Kasich doesn't win Ohio this seems like a foolish strategy. It seems Kasich would be even more determined to stay if Rubio drops because a lot of the remaining map is more favorable to him than Cruz.
I thought with 4 people still in, game theory suggests a different strategy but I'm not really that well versed in it.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/04/politics/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-florida/
Yes, what is the optimum stop Trump strategy? Hell if I know. I expect Trump will be sweeping through states like crazy in the next 12 days By March 15 stopping Trump may be a sad exercise in futility, like the Bernie Sanders campaign is already.
AySz88 // Mar 5, 2016 at 1:19 am
Wow, Romney really screwed up in explaining the tactical voting situation. The reaction seems to be just anger at the prescriptive tone that he took, rather than any talk about tactics. He should have focused upon convincing people why it would be in their own candidate's interest for them to vote for the top non-Trump candidate, rather than just prescribe to voters what they should do.
I did think that tactical voting had the potential to make this effectively a two-way race, at least in some states. But the way that they are trying to get the voters to behave tactically is a total train wreck.
JayBoy2k // Mar 5, 2016 at 10:18 am
Wow — When SAM is away…………… We have 5 States voting today and almost no coverage or comments. Are these all ceded to Trump?
Mostly I am seeing rehashes of the debate. Even the NY Times is applauding the aggressiveness of FOX commentators. Do we really think that is what the country wants out of a Clinton-Trump or Clinton-Cruz debate?
Just consider these the first polls since the debate. They are also closed primaries so that will be a good indication what the party faithful think. These are the places Trump has struggled in previously too.
Sam Wang // Mar 5, 2016 at 11:52 am
Aren't there four states voting today? Or was that just a trick to smoke me out?
There is an Analysis at 538 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-for-republicans-in-this-weekends-elections/ that seems to say Trump will lose Kansas and break even in the other 3, Huffpost shows the polls in Kentucky and Louisiana with nothing in the way of predictions.
Clearly Trump "lost" the debate, but it would be hard to link these states beyond Louisiana – it is a Primary and Trump had a significant poll lead.
No Sam, it is 4. I just made it a really long day and included Puerto Rico which votes tomorrow and has zero data to analyze.
We also have a couple on the Democratic side today. Just starved for numbers.


text:
Sploid
Your Favorite Childhood Lego Set Has Been Turned Into a Flying RC Toy
GIF: YouTube
Kids and space ships go hand in hand, which is why so many of us fondly remember Lego set #1682, the Space Shuttle Launch, released 27 years ago. Last month Adam Woodworth created a tiny drone version of Lego's shuttle that could fly indoors, but now he's created a larger version that can soar through the sky like an RC plane.
An Imaginative Aerospace Engineer Turned This Classic Lego Space Shuttle Into a Flying Toy
As a follow-up to turning the classic Lego Solo Trainer set into a fully-functional RC plane,…
Turning a Lego set into a flying toy is no easy feat. Lego's designers don't take into account aeronautics when they're creating a set like this, they just want the space shuttle to look realistic to entice kids. As a result, the final product features rough angles, tiny wings, and unrealistic proportions. Since Woodworth is actually an aerospace engineer, however, he was able to work around those limitations.
Woodworth's shuttle is five times as large as Lego's and its made from 9-millimeter-thick foam sheets instead of hundreds of plastic bricks. The flying shuttle's motors were mounted to the moving elevons on its wings, which adds to its maneuverability in the air, but makes it especially sensitive to pilot error. Luckily, the lack of actual rocket engines means a crash isn't going to result in a catastrophic fireball.
mwhite66
Cool. This kind of thing works because the model electric motors he used are insanely powerful for their weight; practically anything will fly. This "aircraft" is popular at RC airshows.


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The Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, one of Europe's largest, has been a hub of teaching, research, and treatment in Paris for centuries. It is regarded as the birthplace of the field of neurology, and the new Brain and Spinal Cord Institute (ICM) carries on this pioneering tradition. The ICM has created a new template for public-private partnership in scientific research in France.
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The Edmond J. Safra Foundation was one of the first major supporters of the project.
To learn more please visit the project website: icm-institute.org.


The Erta Ale volcano, in the heart of the Danakil Depression in Ethiopia, is one of only five active lava lakes in the world. Located in a very harsh environment, where temperatures frequently reach 45°C / 113°F or more, the landscape is covered by black volcanic rocks for miles around. After a hike to the rim of the crater, it is a short walk inside the crater to the very edge of the lake. A mesmerizing show, better seen throughout the night.


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The Nacho Display Case holds up to 10 lbs. Of delicious nacho chips. The easy access 6" x 8" opening with lip and cover provides easy loading. Top load design provides product rotation as fresh chips are loaded at the top and scooped out to be served from the bottom. Tempered Safety glass, removable doors and rubber feet make this display case easy to use and maintain. Built with unique corrosion resistant design.


Opens a template for editing.
Templates can be edited multiple times in the same way as normal PDF pages. Therefore, the function prepares the template for editing. The current graphics state is saved entirely before the template will be opened and restored when the template will be closed with DynaPDF.EndTemplate. The current font, line width, fill color and so on are all restored to its values before entering the template.
The function depends not on an open page.
See also EditTemplate2 function in DynaPDF manual.


The parish library is located in the OLS Lower Church, just past the kitchen. The library is often used for meetings for various ministries, but when it is not being otherwise used, the library is available whenever the Church or parish office is open.
To borrow materials, write your full name and current date on the white card found in the back pocket. Place that card in the basket provided. The suggested return date is one month from the date borrowed. Since this is an honor system, no fine will be imposed.
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Syncing Sims 4 saves using the cloud and playing on multiple computers ; How to install The Sims 4 on a Mac; How to uninstall The Sims 4 on a Mac; Tips for playing The Sims 4 on a Mac; Sims 4 cheat console not opening; itsaprilXD�s How to install Mods on a Mac Guide � The Sim 4; Using Automator to remove characters from Sims 4 CC filenames on a Mac; Creating Sims 4 CC on a Mac... Of course that's an issue that you will have with many games (Sims 3 saves for example are HUGE). The Origin team has done a lot with the client in the last few weeks and I know that they have plans for further improvements. Let's see what the future brings.
If you want to restore your backups from a different computer, move all the files from the saves folder on the old computer over to the saves folder that gets created when you first start the game. You can overwrite all existing save unless you have a save on your new computer already that you want to keep. Make sure to start the game at least once to have the folder in documents created.... Remove this folder: documents\electronicarts\thesims3\saves . You can just move it to a different place then you'll still have them if you change your mind.
Like in all the previous games, pressing "Shift," "Ctrl" and "C" at the same time opens the cheats console in "The Sims 4." This is where you'll enter a cheat, followed by the "Enter" key to activate it. In some cases, you can enter a code to undo the effect one cheat created, such as the death toggle. Once you open the console, you must press "Enter" to exit the screen.
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