First of all, you are welcome to attend and help with any Upstate SORBA event, any time at all! You may also register on our website to participate in FORUM discussions and receive Upstate SORBA emails and information, no charge.
Annual memberships start at only $35 per year.
Your membership includes a paid membership in IMBA, SORBA and Upstate SORBA, our local chapter!
IMBA provides an international voice of mountain bikers, helping to further the cause in the USA and abroad.
SORBA provides a regional focus on the big issues that face mountain bikers in our local areas.
Both organizations work hard to clear the paths needed. This includes lobbying, policy guidance, industry guidance and many other areas best handled at the member-organization level!
These organizations also provide the legal structure that supports our non-profit status, group insurance and library of resources which are all critical to the local work we do.
And finally, when you join, you can put a really cool sticker on your car or bike or shop wall! And isn't that really reason enough right there?
But seriously, no matter how you get involved, we are very happy to have you pitch in!
IMBA-SORBA provides combined membership to mountain bikers that live in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.In a groundbreaking effort to push mountain biking forward in the Southeast, the Southeast Off Road Bicycling Association (SORBA) and the International Mountain Bicycling Association (IMBA) have banded together. IMBA and SORBA are now working more closely than ever for the good of mountain biking and mountain bikers in the Southeast.
Join IMBA-SORBA and join the mountain biking movement. Your support is critical in improving riding opportunities across the Southeast and keeping your favorite riding areas open.
As an IMBA-SORBA member you will receive special regional eNews and other great benefits. Most importantly, you will help fellow mountain bikers across the Southeast avoid having to answer this unsettling question: What Would We Do Without Trails?
IMBA is a 501c3 non-profit association.
Donations to IMBA are generally tax deductible.
Click on the link to join Upstate SORBA through IMBA-SORBA!


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50th Space Wing First To Achieve Space Mission Force Initial Capability
February 4, 2016 – The 50th Space Wing is leading the command as the first to successfully achieve Space Mission Force initial capability. On February 1, 50th Operations Group crews "rolled forward" in support of Air Force Space Command's transformation of the entire Space Mission Enterprise heralding the beginning of a substantial cultural and organizational shift to ensure the entire space force is prepared to fight through and win in a contested, degraded and operationally-limited environment.
"Through the Space Mission Force construct we are revamping our crews to respond appropriately in a dynamic environment," said Col. DeAnna M. Burt, 50th Space Wing commander. "We are aligning to be more consistent with the Air Force, which will allow us to focus on advanced training to prepare our forces to effectively deal with the threats they have today."
To the wing, this transition involved personnel structure and training program changes. In October 2015, the operations crews shifted to a four month rotation during which time the members are part of the Space Mission Task Force performing the operational mission. These forces are presented to the United States Strategic Command commander for combatant command requirements. The bulk of the remaining operations personnel enter a dwell period in order to tackle advanced training to prepare for the mission in a contested environment.
"This normalizes our force presentation and training program with other Air Force readiness forces," said Col. Dennis Bythewood, 50th Operations Group commander who oversees the bulk of the units primarily involved in the transition here. "This not only ensures that we can meet our nation's current need for enduring space capabilities, but also delivers dedicated training time to ensure our space forces can deliver those same space effects in an increasingly contested space domain."
The SMF construct establishes a Ready Spacecrew Program that provides for continuation training aimed at maintaining spacecrew proficiency as well as advanced training that is designed to advance the skills, knowledge, and competencies required to accomplish the mission in a contested, degraded, and operationally limited environment. This program includes all the personnel required to successfully perform combatant commander missions in the face of dynamic and varied threats.
"This transition impacts more than our satellite operations personnel," said Bythewood. "We've added our mission planning and intelligence personnel required to execute the mission, for example, to the forces presented to USSTRATCOM. These forces are actively engaged in the combatant commander's site picture for what resources are needed to execute the mission."
SMF establishes a distinct dwell time for crews to conduct advanced training as well as overhauls how training, evaluations and assessments, proficiency and crew force management are accomplished.
"During the dedicated dwell time, we'll review new threats and teach crews how to respond and work through threats in order to continue to provide global combat effects," said Bythewood. "We're stepping through all of these changes at once but I know it will take a couple cycles for us to normalize these changes and make additional adjustments as needed to meet the intent of the Air Force Space Command commander, General John Hyten. This major shift in how we do business comes on the heels of our 75th anniversary as an operations group and no doubt lays the foundation for the great achievements that await us."
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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November 5, 2021 | Part Of U.S. House of Representatives
House Session, Part 1
2021-11-05T08:00:13-04:00https://images.c-span.org/Files/73b/20211105080323001_hd.jpgThe House convened for one-minute speeches, at the end of which Republicans moved to adjourn. The vote on adjournment lasted over seven hours, as Democrats worked off the floor to secure the votes needed to pass the Senate-passed infrastructure bill without first passing President Biden's social spending agenda, the Build Back Better plan. When the vote on adjournment ended, members took another vote, which lasted over 4 1/2 hours, on whether to continue debate on the social spending plan. After agreeing to continue, the House recessed briefly.
The House convened for one-minute speeches, at the end of which Republicans moved to adjourn. The vote on adjournment lasted over seven hours, as… read more
The House convened for one-minute speeches, at the end of which Republicans moved to adjourn. The vote on adjournment lasted over seven hours, as Democrats worked off the floor to secure the votes needed to pass the Senate-passed infrastructure bill without first passing President Biden's social spending agenda, the Build Back Better plan. When the vote on adjournment ended, members took another vote, which lasted over 4 1/2 hours, on whether to continue debate on the social spending plan. After agreeing to continue, the House recessed briefly. close
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Mumbai: Weak global indices, coupled with foreign fund outflows and rupee depreciation, dragged the Indian equity markets lower on Tuesday.
The key indices provisionally closed on a flat note — marginally in the red, as heavy selling pressure was witnessed in banking, healthcare and automobile stocks.
The wider 51-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) slipped by 21.95 points or 0.27 per cent to 8,082.40 points.
The barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE, which opened at 26,374.56 points, provisionally closed at 26,307.98 points (at 3.30 p.m.) — down 66.72 points or 0.25 per cent from the previous close at 26,374.70 points.
The Sensex touched a high of 26,435.56 points and a low of 26,241.43 points during the intra-day trade.
The BSE market breadth was skewed in favour of the bears — with 1,756 declines and 850 advances.
On Monday, the barometer index had closed lower by 114.86 points or 0.43 per cent, while the NSE Nifty inched down by 35.10 points or 0.43 per cent.


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Hungary pulled out from the Eurovision Song Contest 'because it's too gay'
Josh Milton November 28, 2019
Austrian singer Conchita Wurst won Eurovision 2014. (Getty)
Hungary has pulled out of next year's Eurovision Song Contest, allegedly branding the annual event as a "homosexual flotilla".
While no official statement has been released from leaders, rising anti-gay rhetoric in Hungary is the alleged reason the country is withdrawing.
A source inside the local public broadcaster MTVA told The Guardian that media heads believe the contest is "too gay".
The country's prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has emerged as one of Europe's most powerful right-wing leaders since 2010.
Eurovision is 'too gay' to government officials and media leaders.
Presenting and brandishing himself as a nationalist champion to ordinary Hungarians, LGBT+ rights have stalled under the Fidesz leader's premiership.
The Orbán administration has scuppered several pro-LGBT European Union agreements and is helming a traditional 'family-first' policy campaign, while lawmakers have been more and more openly homophobic.
The prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán. (Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
And Eurovision's well-documented links with the community are, according to the source, the reason the country will not compete in 2020.
They said: "I was not surprised. It comes from the organisational culture of MTVA."
MTVA said in a statement to the broadsheet: "Instead of taking part in the Eurovision Song Contest in 2020, we will support the valuable productions created by the talents of Hungarian pop music directly."
Earlier this week, local outlets cited sources claiming that the call was likely made because the contest is "too gay".
Hungarian government insists the rumour is simply 'gossip'.
Amid the swelling speculation, government spokesperson Zoltán Kovács took to Twitter to address the rumours.
He called them, "shameless, muckraking gossip".
What are you talking about? This is shameless muckraking, gossip from your liberal press organs. Nobody in the HU government ever said Eurovision is, in your words, "too gay." But don't let the facts get in the way of your sensational, liberal story line. #fakenews https://t.co/yLc0TW8CUr
— Zoltan Kovacs (@zoltanspox) November 27, 2019
In previous years, the winner of The Song would go on to become Hungary's Eurovision entry.
However, this year the prize will be a chance to appear on various domestic media outlets as well as festivals.
More: eurovision, Hungary


Simon trained in the audit department of a medium sized firm of Chartered Accountants in London where he was involved in the audit of a number of plc clients. After qualifying he joined a food distribution company, was promoted to Finance Director and contributed to it becoming a national name and listed plc.
He returned to general practice where he was joined by Gavin in 1997. Simon has a portfolio of clients ranging from manufacturing to the service industries but as a result of his experience in the food industry has a large proportion of clients in the hotel/restaurant trade and food related sector.
Simon is married to Lucy and lives in Herefordshire. He has two adult children. When he gets the chance of some free time, he has a season ticket at Worcester Rugby Club and enjoys supporting the Warriors home and away with his family. His real love is cricket and has been a member of MCC and Worcestershire CCC for many years.


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November 21, 2001 News & Views » Columns
Pass revoked
The ever-smiling Ann Delisi gazes from the cover of the latest Signal, house publication of public TV station Channel 56, WTVS. Would she have been smiling had she known that her show, "Backstage Pass," was soon to have its production "suspended"? After five years, more than 500 segments dedicated to local artists and musicians, and seven local Emmys, the show's been axed due to budget considerations.
"It's such a disappointment," the veteran broadcaster sighed. "I want to get money for the show so it can continue. It's lived up to its mandate to expose arts culture here in Detroit, and that voice has been taken away."
Executive producer Jay Nelson says that the station has been supportive of the show, but adds, "A lot of philanthropic dollars have gone elsewhere." Nelson went on to say that a mere $175,000 would allow production of another full season. While he and Delisi hope that the program may appear occasionally as a special, there'll be no broadcasts without the bucks.
The last two shows honor the 2001 ArtServe Michigan Governor's Awards for Arts and Culture in Detroit. The final show airs Nov. 25. In front of a house packed with well-heeled arts supporters at the DIA, Delisi refrained from mentioning the program's plight, not wanting to rain on ArtServe's parade. A wag present said she should have just locked the doors and shaken down the crowd until they coughed up the cash. Tacky, yes, but worth it to save a local treasure.
Vic Doucette contributed to The Hot & the Bothered, which is edited by George Tysh. E-mail them at gtysh@metrotimes.com
Tags: Columns, Politics, Cover Story, Government, Hot And Bothered, Television
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Le tsat (ou utsat, utset, huihui, hui, ou cham de Hainan), en chinois , est une langue parlée sur l'île de Hainan en Chine par les Utsul. Le tsat fait partie du groupe malayo-polynésien de la famille des langues austronésiennes et est apparenté au cham parlé au Viêt Nam.

Fait inhabituel pour une langue malayo-polynésienne, le tsat a évolué en une langue tonale, probablement conséquence d'un effet linguistique de contact avec le chinois, le hlai (langue tai-kadai) et d'autres langues tonales de Hainan.

Les Tsat sont officiellement comptés par les autorités chinoises dans la nationalité musulmane des Hui.

Notes et références

Voir aussi

Liens internes
 linguistique
 liste de langues
 langues par famille
 langues austronésiennes
 langues malayo-polynésiennes
 langues malayo-polynésiennes occidentales
 langues malayo-sumbawiennes
 langues chamiques

Liens externes

Inventaire de langues
Langue chamique
Langue en Chine
Hainan

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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Tabriz heritage en route to UNESCO inscription
mehrnews.com
Iran and Germany are expanding archeological collaboration in line with the plans to inscribe the ruins of Rab'-e Rashidi, an educational complex dating back to the 14th century, in the northwestern East Azarbaijan Province, on the UNESCO World Heritage list.
Based on a multilateral agreement signed by East Azarbaijan Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts Organization, Tabriz Municipality, Tabriz Islamic Art University, and German Archeological Institute, archeologists are now carrying a new round study on the site, hoping to put the historical heritage on UNESCO's list, mehrnews.com wrote.
Back in 2016, researchers conducted the first chapter of an international project that laid the basic groundwork for UNESCO recognition of Rab'-e Rashidi.
Archeological speculations, geophysical surveys, 3D laser scans, endoscopy of the ancient structure were among exertions carried out during the project.
Situated in the northwestern city of Tabriz, Rab'-e Rashidi was established during the reign of Ghazan, a ruler of the Ilkhanid dynasty. It embraces a paper factory, a library, a hospital (Dar-al-Shafa), a Quranic center (Dar-al-Quran), residential facilities for teachers, students' quarters and a caravanserai amongst other facilities.
It is said that students from Iran, China, Egypt, and Syria studied in the complex under the supervision of physicians, intellectuals, scientists and Islamic scholars.


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About Cabinet SecretariatHistoryWebmail
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Cabinet Profile
Task Force Spokesperson: COVID-19 Recovery Rate Increases
By Office of Assistant to Deputy Cabinet Secretary for State Documents & Translation
Date 22 September 2020
Read: 50 Views
The national recovery rate of COVID-19 cases has increased by 35.8% compared to the previous week, Spokesperson for the COVID-19 Task Force Wiku Adisasmito has said.
Wiku said that, as of 22 September, the cumulative number of patients recovered had reached 184,298 or 72.9% of the total cases.
Based on the weekly data, as of 20 September, the top 5 provinces with the highest weekly recovery cases are Jakarta Province with 1,540 new recovery cases (from 5,995 recovery cases to 7,495 recovery cases), West Java Province with 1,093 new recovery cases (from 1,130 recovery cases to 2,223 recovery cases), Central Java Province with 845 new recovery cases (from 1,060 recovery cases to 1,905 recovery cases), Aceh Province with 730 new recovery cases (from 70 recovery cases to 800 recovery cases) and Riau Islands Province with 247 new recovery cases (from 166 recovery cases to 413 recovery cases).
The highest percentage of recovery rate occurred in North Maluku Province (89.71%), Gorontalo Province (87.19%), North Kalimantan Province (86.09%), Bangka Belitung Islands Province (84.89%) and South Kalimantan Province (83.51%).
"We appreciate regional heads who have succeeded in reducing positive cases, but do not be complacent. Continuous monitoring on public health protocols must be maintained to lower the positive cases of COVID-19," Wiku said during a press conference at the Presidential Palace, Jakarta, Tuesday (22/9).
In the meantime, the national mortality cases have reached 9,837 (3.9% mortality rate), while the global mortality rate is 3.07%. There was an 18.9% increase in the national mortality rate last week. The highest increase was in East Java Province with 46 cases, Jakarta Province with 32 cases, Aceh Province with 26 cases, North Sumatra Province with 24 cases and West Sumatra Province with 13 cases.
The highest rate of mortality per 100,000 population was reported in Surabaya (38), Semarang (34), Central Jakarta (32), Mataram (24) and Palangkaraya (24), while the highest mortality rate was reported in East Java Province (7.29%), Central Java Province (6.47%), South Sumatra Province (6.04%), West Nusa Tenggara Province (5.91%) and Bengkulu Province (5.85%).
The addition of positive cases, as of 22 September, was still quite high with 4,071 cases. The active cases have reached 58,788 (23.2%) while the global average is 23.5%.
The Provinces with the highest increase were West Java Province (594 cases) Banten Province (492 cases), South Sulawesi Province (459 cases), Riau Province (311 cases) and Papua Province (271 cases).
The Provinces with the highest increase per 100,000 population were Jakarta Province (554 cases), South Kalimantan Province (242 cases), Gorontalo Province (206 cases), East Kalimantan (191 cases) and Bali Province (184 cases).
Regarding the distribution of risk zoning, the number of regencies/cities listed in the red zone (high risk) increased from 41 to 58, the number of regencies/cities in the orange zone increased from 293 to 304, the number of regencies/cities in the green zone decreased from 29 to 21, the numbers of non-affected regencies/cities decreased from 22 to 20, and the number of regencies/cities in the yellow zone decreased from 129 to 111.
In addition, there are 47 regencies/cities that have shifted from the yellow zone to the orange zone, namely in Aceh Province (1), North Sumatra Province (1), West Sumatra Province (1), Riau Province (1), Jambi Province (2), South Sumatra Province (3), Lampung Province (5), West Java Province (4), Central Java Province (3) ), West Nusa Tenggara Province (2), East Nusa Tenggara Province (2), West Kalimantan Province (3), North Sulawesi Province (1), Central Sulawesi Province (2), South Sulawesi Province (3), Bengkulu Province (1), Southeast Sulawesi Province (6), West Sulawesi Province (1), North Maluku Province (2) and Papua Province (3).
There are also 38 regencies/cities that have shifted from the orange zone to the red zone, namely in Aceh Province (3), North Sumatra Province (3), West Sumatra Province (4), Riau Province (2), South Sumatra Province (1), Jakarta Province (1), West Java Province (3), East Java Province (4), Banten Province (4), Bali Province (1), Central Kalimantan Province (2), South Kalimantan Province (1), East Kalimantan Province (1), South Sulawesi Province (1), Gorontalo Province (1), Papua Province (2) and West Papua Province (3). (Communication Team of the Committee for COVID-19 Handling and National Economic Recovery/EN)
Translated by: Ridwan Ibadurrohman
Reviewed by: Mia Medyana
Indonesia Eyes 4% Growth in Manufacturing Industry
Indonesian Foreign Minister Joins Co-Chairs of COVAX-AMC EG
Gov't Supports SMEs to Meet Hajj, Umrah Pilgrim Needs
Vaccine and Health Protocols Important to Overcome Pandemic: Religious Leaders
Copyright © 2021 Cabinet Secretariat of the Republic of Indonesia


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Rosaviatsiya certified electronic documentation for Ansat helicopters
Download: Printable PDF Date: 17 Sep 2020 04:25 categories:
Dana Ermolenko
Country: Russian Federation Aircraft: Helicopters
The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) granted the Russian Helicopters holding the approval to make a major change to the Ansat helicopter type certificate. The event took place during the International Helicopter Industry Exhibition HeliRussia 2020 This document will enable operators to use full electronic documentation with the helicopters.
The approval for "conversion of operating documentation into an interactive electronic form" for the Ansat helicopter built by Kazan Helicopters, was granted by Rosaviatsiya in September 11. "This is a unique project in Russia. We can now replace the set of printed documentation with an interactive one. This step will significantly speed up updating the Ansat design, which is especially important in light of our plans to upgrade the helicopter to the new generation. Electronic documentation will also significantly simplify the maintenance and repair of Ansat helicopters", said the Director General of Russian Helicopters holding company Andrey Boginsky.
During the exhibition, the Federal Air Transport Agency also issued the holding company a type certificate for the Mi-171A2 helicopter, issued on September 3, 2020 by the South Korean Office of Civil Aviation (KOCA). The type certificate was the successful result of the working agreement between Rosaviatsiya and KOCA concerning certification and airworthiness, signed on September 25, 2019. The technical performance of latest Russian multi-purpose heavy-class helicopter Mi-171A2 was highly appreciated by the Korean side.
In addition, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency approved a minimum equipment list for the design of the Mi-38 helicopter type. This document defines the list of equipment for the Mi-38, which are allowed to be inoperative while the helicopter can still be safely used. Operating a helicopter in accordance with the minimum equipment list will significantly help optimizing upkeep costs while maintaining a high level of flight safety.
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Once upon a time, television didn't have much to offer: a tired business model, cheesy storylines, and characters who represented one type of person: the straight, cis, white, able-bodied middle-class. Of course, there have been some notable interruptions to this history – Twin Peaks serving as a beacon for surrealism, Buffy the Vampire Slayer and its feminist message, The Jeffersons addressing race and class, Degrassi Junior High confronting taboo social issues, All in the Family voicing the battling attitudes of its time, The Simpsons revolutionizing the medium of cartoon and its audience – but for a large part, television was truly not making strides. Now, with a variety of viewing platforms and business models, and the increasing representation of different genres and characters, television has reached the high bar set by iconic films.
At this year's Emmy Awards, Master of None actor and writer Lena Waithe made history, as the first black woman to win for Best Writing for a Comedy Series. In her speech she thanked audiences "for embracing a little Indian boy from South Carolina and a little queer black girl from the South Side of Chicago." Granted, Waithe's tremendous success is just a drop in the bucket in terms of finally representing a variety of voices, but how did we get here? Diverse representation on-screen has always been a point of shame in both television and film. Sponsors lacked confidence that their products would sell without a blue-eyed, blonde-haired family to peddle them. Since the internet's democratization of television however, the viewer is finally gaining control of what we see on our screens…and viewers want to see themselves.
Sponsors have begun to take on a different role and begun to realize that in order to move with the times, diversity is key in terms of characters, stories, and even source material. Kim's Convenience began as a stage play, but it was soon recognized that the story of a dysfunctional yet entrepreneurial immigrant Korean family resonated past the walls of the theatre. Carmilla began on YouTube and has now won many awards, largely praised for its representation of women and the LGBTQ+ community. Carmilla is interestingly sponsored by U by Kotex, a brand which has positioned itself as a champion of a realistic image of women. By partnering with Carmilla, the brand showed a willingness to embrace new media whose content spoke to their market, as well as an intelligence to choose a show whose platform was accessible to their demographic. This is just one example of how forward-thinking sponsors have embraced a new role within the world of episodic series, and television in general.
With shows like Baroness von Sketch and Mohawk Girls showcasing women as funny, interesting, flawed characters, television is taking risks and boldly going where no man (literally) has gone before. Orphan Black features a variety of people with different sexual orientations and Tatiana Maslany herself plays a wide range of characters. While the film industry still caters to sure-fire box office hits, television has the advantage of producing lower budget work and therefore the ability to take bigger budgetary risks, as well as the test platform afforded to it through sites like YouTube, where off-beat hits like Broad City and edgy comedians like Donald Glover got their start.
Sites like YouTube have played a huge role in getting the television industry to where it is today, not only through serving as a platform in a supportive capacity, but by totally transforming media distribution. To state the obvious, it is hard to break into the industry. For some, the right choice is to work their way up, starting perhaps as a production assistant and slowly gaining credits and credibility. For others however, the right path is to just start creating, and work to get picked up. Like most things in life, this involves financing. Previously, the only avenue to independent production was the independent film – you couldn't just create a television show and magically get it on the air. In the mid-2000s, the popularity of YouTube and other sites like it began to democratize the world of the series, marking the advent of the web series. This has opened the door for new creators to start their careers in episodic web series and move seamlessly into television, lending television the same fresh and often avant-garde voice previously hallmarked by the film industry.
Even a fresh voice however can eventually lose its lustre. Why? Because duplication is often enough the mark of a box office hit. Film can only offer the sequel, the prequel, and of course, the money-making quality-tanking franchise. While television used to sink into the similar comfort of syndication, now, with the subscription model of sites like Netflix ever-increasing in popularity, viewers are not subjected to reruns, and showrunners are motivated to not air the infamous clips show. Viewers are exercising the power to choose, and they're choosing television. Despite this changing business model within the industry, money of course still reigns supreme. As mentioned before (and unfortunately experienced first-hand by those of us in the industry), films are hard to get financed. The expectation therefore is that the majority of films will be stand-alones. While some television shows are now big-budget productions akin to those of films, there is an expectation of multiple episodes – unlike the one-time deal of film investment, investors in television know that once their money starts flowing, it has to keep going.
Even within a franchise, films are created one after another, with the operative word being "after"; this means that their release dates are far apart. Although television is now becoming far less "quick and dirty," episodes are rolled out weekly on network TV, and on streaming services, full seasons come out a year apart, sometimes less. This allows television shows (and their social media teams) to hold onto their audience in a way that film necessarily cannot. Part of television's appeal also has to do with expectations. In film, there is an expectation to tell a full story. Despite shows like Game of Thrones rumouring to have 90 minute episodes, they have a lesser expectation on them in terms of exposition and resolution. Lower expectations means less disappointment, and despite episodes of many shows being mind-blowingly amazing, it's hard to escape the fact that you also didn't have to buy a twelve dollar ticket to see the episode.
Part of the reason why people have been willing to pay that twelve dollars is for the experience of beauty and art. Film has always excelled with its cinematography. Multi-camera sitcoms pale in comparison to the immaculate symmetry of Wes Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel, the candlelit, painterly nature of Stanley Kubrick's Barry Lyndon, and the grand sweeping scenes in Stephen Hopkins' Race. Television is however catching up. Looking for the sweet and saturated colours of Wes Anderson films? Look at Pushing Daisies. Interested in a Barry Lyndon-like classically soft beauty? Check out Transparent. Want the grandeur of Stephen Hopkins' work in Race? Look no further than The Handmaid's Tale. Television is starting to win the beauty contest.
Television may be beautiful now, but does it have the brains to back it up? The short answer is, yes. On the Canadian side of things, Trailer Park Boys revolutionized storytelling, popularizing the single camera mockumentary style later used by The Office and Modern Family. British cult classic Peep Show brought point of view shots as a method of storytelling into television's zeitgeist. The American show Community took metafiction to the next level…and these shows are just in half hour comedy. Other shows like the Emmy award-winning serialized web series Guidestones offered viewers an interactive experience back in 2012, using apps like Shazam and tools like QR codes to invite viewers to solve the mystery alongside the characters.
Television will never take the place of film; they are simply different mediums that serve different purposes. Television has however seriously upped its game. While it once only served as a means for quantity airtime, it has now become a true contender in the reign for quality airtime.


Today, more than one hundred angry people took to streets of central Port au Prince to condemn the kidnapping of Lovinsky Pierre Antoine. He is a longtime political rights fighter and leader of the September 30 Foundation, a group founded in 2004 by Lovinsky. Its principle activity has been to fight for the rights of people illegally incarcerated in Haiti.
Lovinsky lived in exile from 2004 to 2006 following the coup d'etat and foreign intervention against the elected government of Jean-Bertrand Aristide.
The rally today was held in the grand plaza in front of Haiti's presidential palace. It was organized by Lovinsky's colleagues in the September 30 Foundation and by other human and social rights groups. More protest actions will take place in the coming days.
Protesters are demanding that the Haitian government and police use all necessary resources to secure Lovinsky's release. They also condemn the conditions of lawlessness that have marked Haiti since the February 2004 coup d'etat and foreign intervention.
Large numbers of Brazilian soldiers were stationed in front of the presidential palace, across the street from the protest. Few Haitian National Police were visible.
Lovinsky's case has been widely publicized on radio in Haiti. The print press has yet to cover the story.


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Korea Conflict Scenario: Assessing Global Economic Implications
Country Risk / Global / Thu 17 Aug, 2017
This scenario assumes that conflict breaks out between the two Koreas, either because the US launches a strike on North Korea's nuclear facilities, prompting Pyongyang to retaliate against the South, and potentially Japan, too, or because the North, fearing a US strike, decides to go to war pre-emptively.
As the conflict begins, the North launches a massive artillery and missile barrage at the South, targeting population centres (particularly Seoul) and South Korean/US military bases, and its ground forces advance southwards with a view to capturing as much of South Korean territory as possible. The US and South Korea fight back, with the US carrying out massive aerial bombardment of the North. Millions of North Koreans flee into China, while millions of South Koreans flee further south towards Busan and passage to Japan or elsewhere. We would assume that the North launches at least one nuclear missile at South Korea or Japan, causing tens of thousands of additional deaths. Meanwhile, China deploys troops to North Korea to shore up its interests there and establish a military presence so that it can have a final say in the post-war settlement.
Civilian Casualties Would Be Massive
North And South Korea's Major Cities
Nonetheless, the US's overwhelming response devastates North Korea, and after three months, the conflict ends with the North's defeat. North Korea is subsequently occupied by US, Chinese, and South Korean troops and reorganised into a new entity. Even if the ground war continued longer than our three-month scenario, we would expect the focus of fighting to have moved back up to at least the current North/South border and for North Korea's ability to project force at regional targets such as Japan to have been vastly diminished by this stage.
Impact On South Korea: Overview
A full-scale North Korean attack on South Korea would be devastating for the latter in terms of civilian deaths and injuries, and the destruction to property, infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, and so on.
Civilian Casualties: The high population density in Seoul (16,364 people per square kilometre) suggests that civilian casualties would be huge - possibly tens of thousands of people in short order (i.e. within the first several days). Seoul and the broader Gyeonggi region surrounding it have a population of around 20mn. The southern port of Busan is the second-largest city and has a far lower population density of 4,480 people per square kilometre. The flow of refugees south from the Greater Seoul area would likely number in the millions, presenting a massive strain on less heavily populated southern South Korea's infrastructure and services.
Lost Economic Output: We would expect severe disruption to economic activity in Greater Seoul, due to both destruction of physical infrastructure and mass migration of the urban population to the southern regions of South Korea and abroad. Seoul and the broader Gyeonggi region surrounding it account for approximately 45% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). The services industry would likely be the most affected as according to data from KOSIS, the Greater Seoul area accounts for 54% of all services produced in South Korea.
Destruction Of Capital Stock: South Korea's capital stock was KRW5,508trn (USD4.9trn) in 2015 (340% of GDP). Most of the country's capital stock is in services (73%) and this is mainly centred in Seoul. In contrast, manufacturing fixed capital stock only accounts for approximately 19% of total fixed capital stock and is more spread out across the country.
While damage to manufacturing facilities would be significant, the concentration of South Korea's heavy industries in the southeast means that industries such as shipbuilding and chemicals would be less severely damaged than the services industry. The Southeastern Maritime Industrial Region is centred around the cities of Busan and Ulsan, with north and south Gyeongsang provinces acting as hinterlands. This region is where most of South Korea's shipbuilding and heavy industries such as car making, steel production, oil refining, and chemical production are located. Loss of output is arguably a greater threat to these industries than severe destruction of production facilities, especially if the South Korean government and military retreats to the south and uses Busan as a base to launch a counterattack against the North. During the Korean War of 1950-1953, the North failed to capture Busan.
Global Macroeconomic And Financial Market Impact
A conflict on the Korean peninsula would have a significant negative impact on the global economy. South Korea is the world's 12 th largest economy in USD terms, comprising 1.9% of global GDP - around the same size as Russia and between the larger Canada and the smaller Australia. And to put the devastation envisaged in our scenario into perspective, Seoul and the broader Gyeonggi region comprise around 0.8% of global GDP, which means in the event of complete destruction of the region's productive capacity, it would be akin to losing the annual output of Switzerland, or by comparison to another sub-national region, the US state of Ohio.
Korean Conflict Would Deal Significant Blow To Global Output
National and Subnational GDP As % of Global
2017 forecast, in USD terms. Source: BMI
A military conflict with the North would severely disrupt South Korea's international trade, with considerable impacts for the global economy. South Korea is a trade-intensive country that accounted for 2.5% of world imports and 3.2% of exports in 2016, thus punching above the country's 1.9% weight in global GDP. As a major intermediate goods processor and producer in its own right, South Korea plays a major role as a bellwether for the global economy. In this regard, South Korean export data is considered to be one of the most important leading indicators in assessing the future prospects of global growth and trade.
On the import side, the most significant disruption would be a decline in commodities imports, particularly metal ores, coal, oil, natural gas and certain agricultural commodities. In terms of exports, despite only representing 1.9% of global GDP in 2016, South Korea accounted for 7.8% of global manufacturing exports, much of which comprised of components for global manufacturing supply chains.
Key Manufacturing Export Hub
Largest Exporters Of Manufactured Products, Share Of Total (%)
Source: Trade Map, BMI
The country exports over 3.3% of all global intermediate goods - the seventh-highest total globally - and the country had the highest share of foreign content in its exports of any G20 country, at nearly 42%, according to OECD data for 2011, the most recent year available. This put it just behind Taiwan, Ireland, and Central Europe's major re-exporters, and just ahead of Singapore. In turn, over half of these intermediate exports from South Korea were destined for use in producing exports in further countries, with the proportion rising to two-thirds in the key sectors of ICT and electronics, and motor vehicle parts and components. China imported more than one-third of Korean intermediate exports, with the US importing just over 10%.
South Korea Key In Global Supply Chains
Select Countires - Trade in Intermediate Goods
With an economy of significant size and central to international supply chains being effectively shut down for a prolonged period of time, and with the effects of a devastated capital stock likely to linger beyond the conflict, there would be several consequences for global economic dynamics. Global growth would suffer, both directly as a result of the loss of a significant portion of South Korean output, but also because of dislocations in regional and global production processes (e.g. Japanese components being reassembled into finished goods by South Korean manufacturers). The efficiency of tightly-integrated global supply chains keeps inflation pressures down, and losing a major cog to the system such as South Korea would be likely to push global consumer prices up at least temporarily, depending on the damage done (and the impact would vary by sector, as the industry sections below explain).
Safe Haven Assets Would Prosper
The market reaction immediately following the escalation of hostility between the US and North Korea on August 8 (the day of US President Donald Trump's 'fire and fury' speech and North Korea's response that it could attack the US territory of Guam) may provide an indication as to the potential impact on assets, at least in the near term. Safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc and gold sharply increased in value, as did the VIX volatility index; whereas the Korean won and the MSCI All-Country World equity index sold off ( see chart). A conflict could be the trigger for a prolonged drop in global risk assets, including equities, which look overstretched to begin with.
War Would Catalyse Flight To Safety
Select Financial Markets, 3-Day & Return Following August 8
Source: Bloomberg, BMI
Most Impacted Countries:
Export Demand Impact: China, Japan and the US exported the most goods to South Korea in 2016 and thus in absolute terms, these economies would stand to lose the most trade from a Korean war. However, a host of smaller economies are even more reliant on exports to South Korea in relative terms. The below table illustrates which countries would suffer most from a drop in South Korean import demand based on exports to South Korea as a share of that country's total exports. Exporters of commodities to South Korea, particularly oil (Kuwait, Iraq, Iran), gas (Qatar, Oman, Australia), coal (Australia, Indonesia) and metal ores (Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia, Chile) would see export orders most negatively impacted.
Foreign Direct Investment Impact: A prolonged conflict could also see a sharp decline in overseas investments (FDI) by South Korean firms as the parent companies grapple with the domestic destruction of production facilities. North America was the largest recipient of South FDI from South Korea in 2016, receiving 39.2% of total FDI value (USD19.2bn). Asia was the second largest destination by value (27.2% of total) and dominated the number of projects with 7,060 (65.6% of total projects). While country-level granularity is unavailable, most FDI likely went to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam being a major beneficiary. South Korea was the biggest investor in Vietnam in 2015, accounting for 29% of total FDI in Vietnam. With Vietnam being largely dependent on FDI to develop its manufacturing industry, a sharp decline in South Korean investment would slow the country's ongoing efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain.
Countries Most Vulnerable To A Plunge In South Korean Imports
Exports To South Korea, 2016 (USDbn)
Share of Country's Exports, %
Main Exports
Qatar 10.1 18.4 LNG
Kuwait 7.2 15.7 Oil
Equatorial Guinea 0.6 13.4 Oil
Iraq 5.0 10.5 Oil
Congo (DRC) 0.5 10.5 Ores
Iran 4.6 10.0 Oil
Oman 2.4 9.7 Gas
Australia 15.2 8.0 Oil, Gas, Ores, Coal, Beef
Saudi Arabia 15.7 7.6 Oil
Gabon 0.3 7.5 Oil
Japan 47.5 7.4 Machinery, Electronics, Steel
Chile 3.7 6.2 Metal Ores
Taiwan 16.4 5.8 Electronics, Machinery
Vietnam 12.5 5.8 Electronics, Textiles
Philippines 3.2 5.7 Electronics, Metal Ores
Indonesia 8.3 5.7 Coal, Gas, Electronics
Bolivia 0.4 5.6 Metal Ores
Zambia 0.3 5.5 Metal Ores
UAE 6.9 4.6 Oil
China 87.0 4.1 Electronics, Machinery, Steel
Key Sector Impacts: Shipping, Electronics, Autos, Metals & Energy
Shipping Routes Of More Concern Than Ship Supply
South Korean shipyards are a strategic asset for the country and so would form an obvious target during a conflict. South Korea accounted for 26.7% of global ship building exports in 2016. Any damage to these shipyards would create delays to shipbuilding orders and would likely see orders go to Chinese and Japanese shipyards instead. Due to the projected conflict period of three months, the impact on global shipping capacity would be minimal, as there is no desperate need in any of the shipping sectors for new vessels and the likely outcome would just be that order deadlines would be delayed. However, if the conflict were to go on for a prolonged period, the disruptions to South Korea's shipyards would have a negative impact on the global shipping sector due to the time lines involved in building a vessel, as purchasers would not be able to quickly switch an order to a Japanese or Chinese shipyard. In addition, South Korean yards produce more technologically advanced ships, which other shipbuilders might not be able to produce as quickly or efficiently.
Ship Building Disrupted, But The Market Has Slack
Q117 Global Shipbuilding Orderbook (1,000 GT)
Source: Japanese Shipbuilders Association, BMI
Shipping routes would be a more serious casualty of any conflict erupting, with potential disruption to shipping routes in the East China Sea, Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan. The greatest source of disruption would be a surge in premiums for insuring cargoes traversing these maritime areas. These costs would significantly reduce efficiency in global supply chains.
Massive Disruption To Shipping And Air Routes
Regional Conflict Zone (AB/NB = Air/Naval Base)
As highlighted above, South Korean supply chains would be most impacted, with the country's ports a strategic asset that would likely be one of the first targets during any military campaign. Any disruption to activities at the South Korean port of Busan, would have global implications on shipping and supply chains, with the port functioning as a major transhipment point on the key East-West container route (the largest transhipment port in Asia after Singapore and Hong Kong). Any disruption to activities at Japanese or Chinese ports would also have global supply chain implications. The Chinese ports of Shanghai and Shenzhen are the first and third busiest in the world for container traffic, respectively, while Dalian and Tianjin are also major ports and are even closer to the Korean Peninsula.
Key Shipping Routes Exposed To Conflict Risk
Top 10 Container Ports mn TEU (2016)
Source: BMI, JOC
We would also expect Korean airspace to be closed to civilian airliners, in order to avoid a repetition of military shoot-downs such as those of a South Korean airliner over the Far East by the USSR in 1983, an Iranian airliner by the US navy over the Gulf in 1988, and a Malaysian airliner by separatists over Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Seoul's Incheon International Airport is a major air hub in Asia, so a new Korean conflict would severely disrupt air traffic in the region, with flights to and from Eastern China and Japan having to be re-routed significantly. Indeed, North Korean threats against Japan could also disrupt Japan-bound flights.
Information, Communications, And Technology (ICT)
South Korea's electronics manufacturing capacity would suffer considerable damage, with manufacturing being heavily concentrated in Gyeonggi and Chungcheongnam. Both provinces focus on electronics, with both Samsung and SK Hynix having factories in Gyeonggi (South Chungcheong Province). Chungcheongnam is also the world's largest display production site, with companies such as Samsung, Corning and DOW having production facilities in the province. While destruction of these factories would disrupt the electronics global supply chain, we expect the degree of impact would be limited, for reasons stated below.
Electronics Supply Chains: A short (three-month) war on the Korean Peninsula would have a modest impact on global supply chains; a longer war would see plants in the US and Europe move to take up the slack. Although South Korean firms such as Samsung dominate production of semiconductors, batteries, memory, display panels etc., little is actually manufactured in South Korea, as the need to control costs has necessitated manufacture in India, Malaysia, Vietnam and China. The complete loss of facilities in the wider major Asian markets of South Korea and Japan would lead to significant shortfalls in the short to medium term (up to one year), but we would expect semiconductor foundries in Europe and the Americas to be in a position to restore output to acceptable levels soon after. As a considerable volume of components and finished goods are held around the world in distribution centres at any one time, there would be enough inventory in play to meet short-term demands from a subdued global economy.
Crucial Trade Links
South Korea - Main Export Flows, By Type And Destination, 2016
Source: UN Comtrade, BMI
Cable And Network Disruption: South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are key hubs for major submarine cable systems connecting the region with Europe, Africa and the Americas. We would expect cable landing stations to be among key targets for conventional missile attacks launched by North Korea, although precision targeting would be required; a more likely strategy would be to aim for collateral damage as the result of missile strikes. Attacking the cables themselves would not be effective using missiles and it seems unlikely that the North Korean navy has the resources or the insight to mine or torpedo the cables on the seabed.
While damaging cables would cause disruption in the short term, the region's cable network is highly resilient and traffic can be re-routed to secondary cable systems quite easily. It is highly unlikely that North Korea could successfully target them all. Also, satellite communications would remain available, even if the main earth stations were targeted and destroyed, as mobile satellite phones are used by government agencies and emergency services.
Mobile phone networks would be viable only as long as towers remained standing and could tap into power supplies. Many towers would have back-up supplies (diesel generators, solar panels, etc), but these would not last indefinitely. If enough towers were destroyed, the reach of mobile networks would be diminished. Those that are interlinked with fibre-optic cables would be the most viable for emergency communications.
In the event of war, governments could and would requisition passive and active infrastructure such as spectrum for their own communications and logistics needs. Ordinary mobile phone users would either be unable to make or receive calls or have limited access to communications. In the event of a nuclear strike, it is likely that electromagnetic interference caused by the initial radiation release and subsequent fallout would render almost all forms of wireless communication ineffective.
Wireline (copper) networks will be the most resilient, as these can operate using very low power and the pervasive nature of copper lines makes it difficult to destroy comprehensively. Cordless phones would not be useful; rather corded or wired-in phones would work best. However, function would depend on exchanges/switches escaping destruction and for those facilities also to retain access to power.
Cyberwarfare: North Korean cyber weapons have increased in sophistication in recent years, although they remain - by and large - fairly crude and indiscriminate, succeeding more by fortune than design. We would expect an escalation of cyber attacks in the run-up to a conflict and for some to succeed, with the aim of disrupting key societal infrastructures and generating fear. Power, healthcare and logistics sectors would be targeted, along with military apparatus, with power needing the most robust defences, particularly nuclear energy facilities.
Automotives Sector: Global Supply Chain Impact
The impact on the South Korean automotive industry would range from prolonged disruption to the supply chain at the very least, through to near devastation at worst, if production facilities were destroyed. This in turn would have severe economic consequences as exports of cars account for around 8% of the country's total exports in value terms, worth USD40.6bn in 2016, with components contributing a further 4% (USD21.8bn).
On a global scale, South Korea accounted for 4.4% of global vehicle production in 2016 at 4.3mn units. While not the biggest producer in the world, South Korea's national carmakers also have a global manufacturing presence and actually produced more vehicles overseas than in South Korea for the first time in 2016. The need for components and parts to be imported from these companies' home plants means disruption to the supply chain would have a much larger global impact than suggested by the size of South Korea's domestic autos production.
Key Player For Commodities
South Korea Import Profile
Energy: Material Decline In Global Demand
While a three-month conflict would increase energy consumption for military operations, the overall impact on South Korea's energy imports would be a significant reduction due to the disruption to economic activity. A temporary, sharp drop in energy imports, followed by a slow recovery as the South Korean economy was only gradually rebuilt, would have a significant impact on the global energy market. South Korea was the world's fifth-largest energy importer in 2016, having accounted for 5.2% of mineral fuel imports (USD81.7bn).
Coal and gas imports would be most severely hit due to the dramatic drop in industrial activity and related electricity demand. Oil fuel imports would be more resilient due to the more direct application to military operations and the likely surge in transport demand required to facilitate mass evacuations.
A Huge Source Of Global Energy Demand
Metals: Relocation, Followed By Rebuilding Impacts
Metal Refining Operations To Relocate: A significant decline in South Korean refining and exports of industrial metals including steel, copper, lead and zinc would disrupt global supply chains. However, there would be a far less significant net impact on the global metal market than for energy. Although South Korea is a significant importer or metal ores, for instance the largest for both lead and zinc, the vast majority of imported metal ore is refined for re-export. A collapse in South Korean metal refining would thus result in a slump in the country's ore demand, a concurrent decline in refined metal exports and a subsequent increase in refined metal production from other major producers such as Japan, Germany and China. This supply increase by other producers would be encouraged by the lower ore prices and higher refined metal prices that would immediately follow the closure of South Korean smelting capacity.
Global Steel Market Has Plenty Of Slack: A significant decline in South Korea's steel production would tighten the global market and place upward pressure on prices. South Korea is the world's fifth-largest exporter of steel and steel products, accounting for 5.3% of global shipments in 2016. Although the country also imports significant volumes of steel, the net export figure of USD8.9bn in 2016 was the fourth-largest globally. However, the global market has capacity to absorb such a shock without a price spike. In particular, China's behemoth steel sector, which accounts for over half of all steel produced globally, is in a multi-year process of gradually closing inefficient capacity, a programme that could be slowed in the event of a collapse in South Korean exports.
Long-Term Rebuilding Demand: Long-term rebuilding efforts would drive a surge in South Korean imports of steel, cement and other building materials in the years following the conflict. Steel use would at least be partially met by South Korea's substantial domestic production capacity, depending on how much of this capacity was destroyed by the conflict. Rebuilding requirements would be immense, as Seoul and the broader Gyeonggi region, which would bear the brunt of any North Korean artillery barrage, account for approximately 45% of South Korea's gross domestic product and it is not unreasonable to assume at least a similar share of the country's capital stock. Energy imports would likely recover less quickly than building materials, given that a key driver of the country's electricity demand, namely industrial activity, would take several years to get back to full capacity.
Second-Tier Sector Impacts: Arms, Food & Drink, Consumer Goods, Tourism, Pharmaceuticals
Arms And Munitions Demand Surge From Major Players
South Korea is already the world's fourth-largest importer of arms and munitions, having accounted for 5.7% of global imports in 2016. Clearly, an outbreak of conflict with the North would result in a surge of demand from South Korea, as well as regional states either directly involved or threatened by the conflict (e.g. Japan). Moreover, the heavy involvement of the United States in any conflict would drive a significantly increase in arms and munitions demand from by far the world's largest consumer.
Food And Drink: Shift To Staples Imports
From a humanitarian perspective, we would envisage severe shortages of essential food and drink products as panic buying and the closure of mass grocery retail operations in affected areas immediately ensues. Moreover, South Korea relies heavily on overseas trade to cater for its grocery needs, importing 70% of all food and drink products consumed domestically. While a developed economy such as South Korea can be expected to have emergency stockpiles of essential goods, this is unlikely to withstand a conflict lasting several months. We would therefore expect non-commercial air and sea routes to be maintained wherever possible in order for food, drink and other forms of aid to reach the population.
South Korea accounted for 2.1% of global agribusiness imports in 2016 (USD23.3bn). A conflict scenario would reduce total food imports and have most impact on the markets for which South Korea is a major buyer, namely cereals (mainly corn), seafood and meat (mainly beef and pork). Import demand would also likely shift towards staple foods (cereals) and away from more discretionary food demand (seafood) as mass refugee flows led to a humanitarian crisis.
South Korea Relies Heavily On Food Imports
South Korea Food & Drink Imports By Geography (USDbn and % share)
Tourism: Shutdown In The World's Largest Duty Free Shopping Market
South Korea is second only to Thailand as an overseas destination for Chinese travellers, whose propensity for high levels of luxury spending has helped make South Korea the world's largest duty free shopping market. We forecast total tourist arrivals to reach 17.5mn in 2017, rising to 25mn by 2021, a figure that would be vastly reduced by the conflict. Companies particularly exposed to a sharp drop in tourist arrivals include Korean retail conglomerate Lotte Group, and Hanatour, the country's largest travel company, both of which are already under pressure from the deterioration in diplomatic relations between China and South Korea ( see 'Sino-Korea Tensions Pose Short-Term Risks For Consumer Sectors', 30 March 2017).
Collapse In Cosmetics, Clothing And Personal Care Exports
South Korean exports of the other consumer goods we cover, including personal care, clothing, and household goods, reached a sizeable USD23.5bn in 2016, according to figures by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA). This was driven by personal care, and cosmetics in particular, with Korea among the top ten cosmetics exporters globally ( see 'South Korean Brands To Drive Growth In Cosmetics', October 5 2016). This sector is therefore vulnerable to any interruption in trade.
South Korea's Major Consumer Goods Exports
2016 Export Value (USDbn)
Share In World Exports (%)
Ranking In World Exports
Autos 62.7 4.7 6
Consumer Electronics 93.3 3.0 8
Personal Care & Cosmetics 4.2 3.7 9
No Major Impact On Pharmaceuticals
Despite South Korea having a well-developed pharmaceutical industry, a devastating attack would not have a significant impact on the global medicine supply chain. Most countries have stocks of pharmaceuticals, a sizeable domestic industry and they import medicines from a variety of partners. Moreover, production can be scaled upwards in a fairly short time-frame. Regarding the response to a chemical/biological attack in South Korea, pharmacological counter-measures are likely to be limited. The general healthcare sector processes will be more significant, particularly in providing rapid-response care to survivors and mobilising resources to prevent further casualties.
Risks To Scenario
Downside risks: There are several major downside risks to our three-month conflict scenario. Perhaps the greatest danger is that the US and China engage in direct military confrontation in Korea, which is what happened in the Korean War (1950-1953), when Peking sent in troops to repel the Allied advance towards the Chinese border. The US commander, Douglas MacArthur, wanted to expand the war into China, but was overruled by President Truman. If China were to intervene to support North Korea in the present day, we would expect the US to refrain from attacking it, as per 1950-1953. However, the mere fact that Beijing and Washington were fighting directly against each other would dramatically escalate tensions, potentially towards uncontrollable levels. This would send shockwaves through the global economy, and could result in both sides taking punitive economic measures against the other.
Another downside risk is that North Korea launches multiple nuclear strikes against the South, and/or Japan, each of which would kill tens of thousands of people and could prompt the US to use nuclear weapons on the North. It is unclear how China and Russia would react to US nuclear strikes so close to their borders, but if the North 'went nuclear' first, they would be ill positioned to object. Either way, the nuclear exchange would be seen as a 'world changing event', even if confined to the Korean Peninsula.
Even leaving aside the nuclear dimension, the conventional conflict could result in a deadlock along a new frontline that persisted for months, or even years. Furthermore, even if the North's invasion was repulsed and Allied or Chinese troops took over Pyongyang and replaced the Kim regime, its diehard supporters could wage an insurgency in the countryside for years to come, similar to Cambodia's Khmer Rouge following its overthrow by a Vietnamese invasion in 1978, or the Iraqi insurgency after the fall of Baghdad and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003. That said, North Korea's peripheral position in the global economy means that any extended war in the North would not affect the South.
Upside risks: There is also a possibility that the war could end very swiftly, if the US successfully 'decapitates' the Kim regime in a targeted strike that kills him and his inner circle, or if disgruntled elements of the regime take advantage of the start of the war to seize power. The US began the Iraq War in 2003 with a surgical strike that was intended to eliminate President Saddam Hussein and his top aides during a meeting at a very specific location. This failed. However, a few weeks later, the US was able to take over Baghdad without much of a fight, because the commander of the Baghdad Republican Guards apparently struck a secret deal with the US to surrender the city. Another way in which the war could end rapidly is if the North Korean military proves to be a 'paper tiger', suffering intolerable losses of men and material in the face of the US's unrelenting aerial bombardment, and subsequently collapses and forces the North's surrender.
Country Risk


His Excellency the Right Honourable David Johnston, C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D. Governor General of Canada. Ontario, Canada.
Jacqueline (Jackie) Sharp. Jamaica. President and CEO, Scotia Group Jamaica Ltd.
Tony Stikeman. Ontario, Canada. former Chairman of Tactix Government Relations and Public Affairs. NZS Navona Ltd.
Rob Wildeboer. Ontario, Canada, Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, Martinrea International Inc.


text:
Абебе Бикила (р. 7 август 1932 - 25 октомври 1973) е етиопски маратонски бегач, олимпийски шампион през 1960 и 1964.

Биография
Бикила е роден в селото Ято, което се намира на 9 километра от Мендида. Баща му е овчар. След време е открит от шведски треньор, работещ в Етиопия.

Взима участие на олимпиадата в Рим съвсем случайно. Минути преди самолета на етиопците да излети той заменя Уами Бирату, който се контузва в последния момент. Спонсорът на олимпиадата (Адидас) дава обувки на Абебе, но той ги отказва, защото не са му удобни и решава да тича както е тренирал – бос. Треньорът на Бикила го предупреждава за най-големия му конкурент – мароканецът Ради Бен Абдесалам, който е трябвало да се състезава с номер 26. По време на състезанието Бикила изпреварва голям брой бегачи като целта му е да намери номер 26. Когато най-после стига до него двамата се откъсват от другите и пристигат 500 метра преди финала заедно. Абебе печели с време 2:15:16 – нов световен рекорд.

Бикила се връща в Етиопия като герой и е награден със специален медал. Няколко дни преди олимпиадата в Токио през 1964 е опериран от апендицит. Той отива на олимпиадата, но никой не очаква от него да участва. Въпреки това той се записва за маратона и отново спазва същата тактика да се движи с лидерите до двадесетия километър. Само след 35-ия километър той има преднина пред втория от цели 4 километра. Финишира с маратонки ASICS и с ново рекордно време – 2:12:11. Така Абебе става първият атлет печелил олимпийския маратон два пъти.

На 22 март 1969 г. Абебе Бикила преживява автомобилна катастрофа, от която остава парализиран в долната част на тялото, и никога не прохожда повече, макар че участва в различни състезания за инвалиди. Катастрофата е причина и за фаталния мозъчен кръвоизлив, от който почива на 25 октомври 1973 г.

На името на Абебе Бикила са кръстени множество училища и спортни прояви, както и стадион в столицата на Етиопия Адис Абеба.

Външни препратки
 Статия за маратона през 1960
 Статия за маратона през 1964

Етиопски олимпийски шампиони
Етиопски лекоатлети
Олимпийски шампиони по маратон
Спортисти на летните олимпийски игри 1964


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Something from the history of Mountfield HK
Mountfield HK, a.s. is a hockey club located in Hradec Králové since 2013. The hockey club aspires with a very rich history, dating back to 1926. Shareholders are Mountfield a.s. and the Statutory City of Hradec Králové.
The beginning of ice hockey in Hradec Králové started in the mid-20s of the 20th century, precisely in 1925 when Skating club of Hradec Králové was put together. Only one year later, the Skating club of Hradec Králové was added to Czech Ice Hockey Association. Another major milestone for Mountfield HK, a.s. was the construction of artificial ice, which was officialy opened on January 12, 1957.
The hockey club went through a lot of ups and downs since its beginning. One of the golden moments was definitely the advance to Czech extraliga, the top hockey league in the Czech Republic, during the season 1993/94. The following year came one of the downs when the team fell down to the first and eventually also the second league. Nevertheless, the team came back up to the first league in 2001.
Another huge milestone happened before the start of the 2013/14 season when Hradec Králové – now as the Mounfield HK – advanced to Czech extraliga again after a 20 years gap. Since then, the team participated in every season quarterfinals. In 2016/17 season, Mountfiled HK fought in semifinals and won the bronze medal.
During the same season, Mountfiled HK also participated in the famous Swiss tournament Spengler Cup, where the team lost in quarterfinals. After a tremendous success in the club history, the Mountfield HK was invited to the same tournament once again the following year.
ÈPP Aréna
Schedule CHL 2019/20
Schedule Czech Extraliga 2019/20
Roster 2019/20


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Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters will 'never, ever forgive' African Americans who 'shamefully' vote for President Trump
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) attends a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, on Oct. 23, 2019. (Erin Scott/Reuters file photo)
A Democrat from California threatened to hold a grudge against black Americans who help give the president another four years in the Oval Office.
Rep. Maxine Waters vowed to permanently resent African Americans who vote for President Donald Trump at the general election on Nov. 3.
"For those black young men, who think somehow they can align themselves with Trump, not only are they terribly mistaken," she told SiriusXM's "Joe Madison Show'" podcast. "Any of them showing their face, I will never, ever forgive them for undermining the possibility to help their own people and their own communities."
Waters described the president's growing popularity among African Americans as hurtful.
"It just hurts me so bad to see blacks talking about supporting Trump, I do not know why they would be doing it, I do not know why it is on their minds," she said. "It is absolutely unconscionable, it is shameful."
Waters revealed the Democratic Party is urgently trying to appeal more to black American voters because this demographic could help President Trump win a second term.
"If we do not turn out this vote and turn it out huge, this man could end up winning again and this country would go backwards," she said.
She strangely accused the same voters, who she was trying to attract to the Democratic Party, of being unknowledgeable and even mentally challenged.
"Many of these young men [are] not really understanding how these systems work and what we have done to improve the systems," she said. "They are crazy, they are not going to get a dime from these [GOP] people … even in order to get the president to sign anything and he is not going to sign a darn thing for them."
Waters then claimed the president was prejudiced against people belonging to another race, even though she had just stated a growing number of African Americans support him.
"[The president] is a racist, he does not have any appreciation for black people and black women in particular," she said. "He has talked about it so bad, he has talked about [the late] John Lewis so bad, he has talked about Kamala [Harris] so bad, he has no respect for us, he is not doing anything for us."
African American rapper Curtis Jackson—also known as 50 Cent—previously declared to his 26 million social media followers that he is voting for President Trump. He made the decision shortly after reviewing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's tax plan, which would tax hardworking Californians up to 62.6 percent of their total earnings if they earned more than $400,000 annually.
50 Cent also revealed he is not bothered by mainstream media reports that accuse President Trump of being racist.
"I do not care [if President] Trump does not like black people," he said on Instagram.
Rapper Lil Wayne supports the Trump administration's Platinum Plan for black community development
Rapper 50 Cent decides to vote for President Trump after seeing Democratic nominee Biden's tax plan
CNN cancels interview with rapper Ice Cube for working with Trump
Rep. Maxine Waters asks businesses to stay closed even after CCP Virus restrictions are lifted
Tags:trump Democratic Party Joe Biden Kamala Harris Maxine Waters 50 Cent John Lewis racist African American 2020 general election Curtis Jackson
Russia sanctions 29 more Americans for the 'Russophobic agenda'
GOP Sen Blunt refuses to support Supreme Court nominee
D.C. 04/04/22, 15:04
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VP Harris demands new voting rights law on Bloody Sunday anniversary


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July 17, 2019 | Tackling rural poverty: land reform is failing Filipinos
July 16, 2019 | The Lao National Assembly refocuses attention on the issue of corruption
July 15, 2019 | As local residents question Belt and Road impacts, China and Myanmar remain silent
July 14, 2019 | Half-way through season one of the Duterte show: Dramatization drowns out substance
July 12, 2019 | EU-Vietnam trade deal prompts concern in Thailand
July 11, 2019 | Life in the era of fintech: The evolving story of ASEAN's banks
July 10, 2019 | Singapore's defence ties: A balancing act
July 9, 2019 | Bracing for change: Singaporeans jump on the skills of tomorrow
July 8, 2019 | Why has the long hunt for Soeharto's ill-gotten wealth not produced results?
July 5, 2019 | Too many mangoes: a bumper harvest puts the spotlight on Filipino supply chains
Home China
ASEAN's new arms race: nations scramble to rearm as concerns over security grow
TOPICS:arms traderearmamentregional securitySouth China Sea (SCS)
China's navy conducting drills in the South China Sea. 2013. Asitimes / Wikimedia Commons
As national leaders wobble over how to approach shifting tensions and allegiances over the South China Sea the most direct response has been billions of dollars of spending on fighter jets, boats, weapons and submarines.
Against the changing geopolitical landscape and in the face of foreign aggression, ASEAN nations have begun rearming. This has seen countries increase their defence spending – purchasing more advanced weapons systems to meet their security needs and combat the region's piracy problem.
As a general overview, much of these military hardware purchases are a mixture of low-cost maritime patrol vessels, submarines, aircraft, and mid to long range advanced missile systems. But what does this spending tells us about the relationships and tensions in the region?
Malaysia will stay strong and not back down on territorial claims
"We will not change our stand, and if that requires a push back, it does not matter what our relationship is with the superpowers," said Malaysia's defence minister Hishammuddin as he reiterated his country would take tough measures if needed.
True to that, Malaysia has increased military collaboration with China, South Korea and Japan, aiming to build its ability to produce its own warships in the future. The government also recently ordered 14 of China's newest littoral class C82A combat vessels; complete with Chinese technology, which will patrol shorelines and fight piracy. Prime Minister Najib also plans to increase his total submarine count to three.
Next-door neighbour Singapore has already ordered two additional submarines, to be delivered by 2020, to supplement the four anchor class submarines it already has. They are also working with Boeing to develop the F-15SG; a class of fighter jets tailored to Singapore's needs.
The Philippines is looking to expand its arsenal while being sensitive to China
Behind the nervousness of many leaders are the moves by China to reclaim and upgrade islands in the South China Sea; while leaders such as Duterte want to be able to stand alone from their once-protectors as relations cool with America. The Philippines' recent purchases have included the FA-50 Golden Eagle, a low-cost fighter jet from Korea, and 11 coastal patrol ships from Japan. Tokyo has also leased Manila five aircraft for training purposes.
"We are buying ships from Indonesia, aeroplanes from Korea, ships from Korea. Japan is providing us with some ships," said Delphin Lorenzana, Philippines Secretary of Defence. He added this was due to an urge to, "expand our horizons" which would improve the country's "very weak" defence capabilities. Over the next five years, the second phase of military modernisation would invest US$2.3 billion, he said.
Vietnam has concerns over self-defence
Another neighbour with reason to be cautious is Vietnam, which clearly remembers a series of bloody skirmishes with China and has been regularly upgrading its military hardware as Beijing resurges. Back in 2015, the construction of the oil rig Haiyang Shiyou 981 rekindled memories of old conflicts; it has also sparked concerns about the country's ability to defend itself, or its territory.
Dinh Kim Phuc of the Open University in Ho Chi Minh City, one of Vietnam's foremost authorities on territorial disputes emphasises that the "Chinese could probably take all our positions in the Spratly Islands in a day or two if they wanted."
Against this backdrop, the Vietnamese military has purchased 12 units of the latest SU-35 fighter jet from Russia, and added highly advanced Russian-Indian Brahmos cruise missiles to its navy's capacity. Due to a five-decades-old and only recently lifted US arms embargo, Russia has long-dominated Vietnam's arms market. However, the government is now in discussions with the EU and the US about buying weapons such as F-16s and Euro tycoon fighters to reduce reliance on Russian arms.
ASEAN nations share similar defence needs
Overall there are many similarities between the purchases made by ASEAN countries, revealing a common defence doctrine guiding these leaders. For example, the focus on littoral-class combat ships which are cheap, fast and make it easy to conduct sovereignty sail, patrols and counter-piracy operations around shallow shorelines. These are not well-suited for extended operations in the deep waters of the South China Sea.
In fact, purchases such as Malaysia's are perfect for the Straits of Malacca. And the generous bundle of weapons technology included in the deal is an affirmation of China's position as guarantor of safe passage in this area. These ships not only bolster Malaysia against the US naval presence in Singapore, but offer the ability to protect Chinese-funded projects on Malaysia's shoreline such from terrorism and piracy.
The nations of the ASEAN bloc are preparing to defend themselves – with or without the US
Another common trend is the purchase of long-range weapons such as submarines, advanced missile systems, and modern fighter jets. The doctrine of obtaining such weapons is easy to understand, but politically more complex, and should be considered carefully. These types of armaments have little scope for use in anti-terrorist, militant or pirate operations – they are intended to cause as much damage as possible.
This clearly shows that while friendships are being built across disputed waters, Chinese assets such as fuel depots, drills, airstrips and telecoms towers across the South China Sea could be targeted by their neighbours. The message has to be that the nations of the ASEAN bloc are capable of defending themselves.
Adding this long-range striking capacity to ASEAN's arsenal also has a second purpose; reducing the region's dependence on US aircraft carriers and missile cruisers. The inward-looking foreign policy of the incoming Trump administration has created uncertainty about American commitments in the future, so building up a long range striking capacity among ASEAN countries can fill this void. And if, on the other hand, Trump's administration wants to take a more active role in the region, many of the recent purchases could be smoothly integrated with the American capacity to create an even stronger deterrent.
The source of weapons is less relevant than how they are used
Factually, ASEAN countries have bought weapons from a variety of sources – whether India, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, or the US. But that does not necessarily show a difference in positions or allegiances. Instead, this could be put down to straightforward affordability. For example, Singapore and Indonesia both affirmed their cooperation on transnational security in 2016, despite the fact Singapore mainly buys its arms from the US, while Indonesia looks to Russia. Resources from different parts of the world can still be put to work together.
In the bigger picture, local weapons spending shows that ASEAN nations are not so divided ideologically. They just recognise they need to upgrade their hardware to meet the changing needs of today's world. Although the possible withdrawal by the US seems worrying, there are also reasons to rejoice. It reminds us that the peace we enjoy today must not be taken for granted and the ASEAN bloc must assume more responsibility for regional security.
As such, the current round of rearmament is practically inevitable but should be seen as a clear positive; as an opportunity to reduce dependence on foreign power and build more rounded military forces immune to geopolitical shifts. ASEAN is standing up for itself.
Will Japan build an army?
Malaysia postpones fighter jet deal though defence needs are pressing
ASEAN continues to avoid the South China Sea: time to change the consensus?
New priorities: Is Beijing stepping back from the South China Sea disputes?
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When it comes to rocks and geodes, I cannot get enough of them. Between climbing and gem collections the recurring love for geology keeps arising.
I have also discovered Vivchy's BB cream, it's a perfect daily addition to my routine and with the deliciously moisturising properties it's just too perfect.


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Round 2 – WS : Top 10 players has everything under control
Things are getting serious at the French Open ! The women's draw was full of amazing performance and only the best players will succeed at the end. Today we witnessed the qualification of top 10 players into the next round.
Denmark Open quarter final remake
What a watch! The 2017 world champion has been defeated in 3 games by the world no 9, Saina Nehwal. The two women know each other pretty well. They met during the Denmark Open last week and the Indian played better. It was actually pretty much the same scenario in Paris. Nozomi Okuhara has been beaten for the second time in 3 games. The crowd was on fire for this match ! It seems that the Indian is going to be a conqueror in this tournament. Final score: 10-21 21-14 21-17.
No more European player
Mia Blichfeldt was this only European in the women's single draw. After a promising first round, she faced today the Indonesian TUNJUNG. She easily took the 1st game 21-13. She met some strong resistance from her opponent and lost the 2nd game. Mia Blichfeldt seemed quite weakened at the beginning of the ultimate game, despite the crowd support. She lost in the end 13-21 21-14 21-11.
Asian success
The world no 1 Tai Tzu Ying made her entrance on the court for the 1st match of the day. The crowd cheered that huge champion at her arrival. Tai Tzu Ying faced a player from China ranked 14. But Tai Tzu Ying is not world number one for nothing. She took the first game 21-12 after winning the 2nd one 21-17. No worries for the world no 1 who get her ticket for the next round.
The world no 5 Chen Yufei is into quarter final, after beating a player from Japan in straight games, 21-19 21-13.
No worries for Ratchanok Intanon who won in straight games as well against the Chinese Chen Xiaoxin, 21-18 21-15. Everything seems under control for the Thai.
Same thing goes for the Indian PV Sindhu who didn't shake today. She played well and lucid She beat Sayaka Sato from Japan in straight game, 21-17 21-16.
RESULTS HERE


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Oilers Doane Commits to University of Wisconsin-Stout
The Okotoks Oilers are pleased to announce that 20-year old forward Stephen Doane has committed to play for the University of Wisconsin-Stout Blue Devils in the fall of 2015. UW-Stout is located in Menomonie, Wisconsin and plays in the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WIAC).
Stephen was acquired by the Oilers in the summer of 2014 after spending his first 2 AJHL seasons with the Drumheller Dragons and Grande Prairie Storm. In Stephen's junior career he has currently recorded 39 goals and 84 points in 148 regular season games played.
"We would like to congratulate Stephen and his family on committing to UW-Stout Blue Devils," states Head Coach James Poole. "Stephen has had a positive influence in his final junior season with the Oilers bringing a gritty, skilled style of play that has fit with the Oiler identity. With Stephen now playing his best hockey of the season and committed to his post-secondary plans, we look forward to his continued contributions in helping the Oilers achieve playoff success in their 10th anniversary season."
Stephen is the 6th player from the 2014-2015 Oilers committed to an NCAA post-secondary hockey program.
For any further information please contact the Oilers Hockey Office at (403)938-0243.
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You and your wonderful staff have in 18 months transformed my wife Ann from immobile, nearly incapacitated and likely heading for life in a wheelchair; to the super active person she really has been throughout our marriage.
The transformation was close to miraculous. You cured not just bone and tendon; but also returned her positive mental outlook toward herself, her friends, and her family.
Seeing Ann's cure is a visible and constant reminder of the success that can be achieved by excellent surgery, perfect and caring orthotic fitting, and positive patient attitude.
P.S. If spouses or caregivers of any of your future patients for a similar procedure to Ann's want reassurance or information, please have them contact me.


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Home Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. Politics
New York prosecutors finally got a hold of Trump's taxes after a lengthy court battle
Sonam Sheth
The Manhattan district attorney's office has obtained Trump's tax returns.
The development comes after the Supreme Court blocked Trump's last effort to keep his taxes secret.
Trump's financial documents are at the heart of investigations into whether he violated laws.
The Manhattan district attorney's office has obtained former President Donald Trump's closely held tax returns after a long court fight.
CNN on Thursday cited one source as saying that prosecutors got hold of the documents on Monday, hours after the Supreme Court rejected Trump's last ditch effort to block the release of his taxes.
The former president's financial documents are at the heart of several investigations into whether he or entities controlled by him violated state or federal laws.
The Manhattan DA is interested in them as part of an investigation into whether the Trump Organization ran afoul of New York laws when it facilitated illegal hush money payments during the 2016 campaign to women who claimed to have had affairs with Trump in the 2000s.
The scope of the investigation is unclear, but the office hinted in a September court filing that Trump could be investigated for tax fraud. The filing extensively cited previous media coverage of Trump's finances as reason to subpoena eight years and millions of pages of his tax returns.
When the case initially landed at the Supreme Court, Trump's lawyers made the broad and unprecedented claim that the president has "absolute immunity" from any criminal investigation while he's in office. In July, the court ruled 7-2 in favor of the Manhattan DA's office but allowed Trump to keep fighting the subpoena on other grounds in the lower courts.
A month later, a federal judge again struck down Trump's efforts to block the subpoena, describing the president's actions as "unprecedented," "far-reaching," and "perilous" to the rule of law. Now that the Supreme Court has also cleared the way for prosecutors to get Trump's taxes, investigators have access to a potential treasure trove of information about the complex world of Trump's business activities.
Michael Cohen, Trump's longtime former lawyer and fixer, testified to Congress in 2019 that Trump repeatedly inflated or deflated the value of his financial assets for loan and tax purposes, respectively.
Cohen's testimony came after he pleaded guilty to several felonies in investigations by the Manhattan US attorney's office and the special counsel Robert Mueller. He cooperated extensively with both probes, and in his congressional testimony, Cohen said the US attorney's office was investigating "wrongdoing or illegal acts" involving Trump that had not yet been revealed at the time.
Multiple media reports also said that Trump kept two sets of books for his properties, indicating potential financial fraud and lending credence to Cohen's testimony.
ProPublica reported in 2019 that the Trump Organization presented different occupancy rates for Trump Tower in Manhattan to lenders and tax authorities. Earlier, Mother Jones published an investigation that found that Trump might have fabricated a loan to avoid paying $50 million in income taxes. And The New York Times reported in 2018 that Trump used a series of dubious tax schemes to shield a $400 million inheritance from the IRS.
In 2019, an IRS whistleblower came forward and alleged that there were "inappropriate efforts to influence" the agency's mandatory audit of Trump's taxes. And late last year, The Times published another bombshell investigation showing that Trump paid just $750 in income taxes in 2016 and 2017.
NOW WATCH: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was praised for her line of questioning at Michael Cohen's hearing — watch it here
trump taxes Donald Trump trump investigations