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US Gulf sour crudes rise on cancellation of Iran sanctions waiver
Medium sour crude values have found fresh support, following an announcement on April 22 that the US will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2.
May barrels of USGC sour crude benchmark Mars were heard talked between $4.80/b and $5.05/b above WTI cash in the morning of April 22 and then later heard traded at WTI plus $5/b, up from the previous assessment of WTI plus $4.55/b on April 18. Also on the day of the announcement, June barrels of Mars were heard trading at WTI plus $5.10/b on, up from over $4.70/b.
The strengthening of USGC sour grades follows a general weakening trend in the market over the past several weeks as domestic refinery tastes continue to evolve to include an increased diet of light sweet crudes.
"If you think about it, Mars is back to a more historical level," one crude trader said. "Refiners are running more light sweet in cokers."
The differential for front-month US Gulf Coast benchmark Mars had fallen $3.55/b since hitting its strongest point in five years of WTI plus $8.10/b on February 14. Tightness in the sour crude market, as a result of OPEC crude production cuts, sanctions on Venezuela, and production curtailments in Canada, all helped boost sour crude in the US Gulf Coast at the beginning of the year. However, demand seemed to shift in recent weeks, sending USGC sours lower. The expiration of Iran sanctions waivers could send US Gulf Coast crudes higher once again.
The waiver expirations will impact some of Iran's biggest buyers of crude and condensate, including China, India and South Korea, all of which have been allowed to continue buying crude from Iran despite US sanction on the country. Any country that continues buying Iranian crude after the waivers expire will be risking US sanctions enforcement. The Trump administration aims to "bring Iran's oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue," the White House said in a statement. Without the extension of the waivers, crude buyers around the world will be under pressure as less supply will be available. The timing will put maximum pressure on the market, especially as demand typically ramps up during the summer season.
A recent uptick in interest for storing US Gulf Coast sour crudes also is an indication that values for Mars, and other similar grades such as LOOP Sour, are expected to be stronger in coming months.
Storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port was heard trading late last week for May, June and July at between 5 cents/b and 3 cents/b.
Latin sours supported
Sources also expect differentials of sour grades from Colombia and Ecuador to continue climbing in coming days as the waivers for Iranian crude importers were scheduled to expire in May. Since the last quarter of 2018, more cargoes of heavy sour Colombian Castilla Blend and Ecuadorian Napo Oriente crudes have been imported by Asian refiners, specifically Japan, South Korea and China, as they are seen as replacements for Iranian and Venezuelan crudes.
The average differential of Castilla Blend in the third quarter of 2018 was minus $9/b compared to ICE Brent, according to S&P Global data. However, due to strong buying interest and limited supplies of heavy sour grades in the global markets, recent tenders of the Colombian crude for May loadings have been awarded around minus $4.50-4.00/b vs ICE Brent.
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https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/24/us-sour-crudes-iran-sanctions-waiver/
Energy traders brace for growing battle over shrinking margins: Fuel for Thought
Independent commodity traders, often viewed as the secretive, but highly lucrative, footloose middlemen of the energy markets, are facing a tough time adjusting to the industry's new economics.
The rise of data transparency has stripped traders of their information advantage, while regulatory pressures over accountability continue to grow. New competition from national oil companies looking to leverage their massive supply-side clout in trading swap deals is also on the rise.
Commodity trading margins have fallen by more than 20% from their recent peak in 2015 and could fall by another 15% to less than $30 billion by 2025, according to a recent report by consultants Oliver Wyman.
Top trading houses such as Glencore, Vitol, Trafigura, Gunvor and Mercuria have been bulking up with refining, distribution and storage assets for years in order to maintain a trading edge over their rivals.
But competition for new downstream assets to enhance core trading earnings has become fierce, further complicating the current asset-backed trading model. More pressingly, the rise of automated, algorithmic trading and reduced arbitrage opportunities have compressed traditional margins.
Most of the commodities that generated big bucks for traders in the past are now traded on markets that are transparent and liquid, and the value of contracts traded on standard electronic platforms has doubled in the last decade.
"This trading margin meltdown will continue as commodity markets become more mature, stable and liquid," Oliver Wyman said in a report. "This cutthroat environment will weed out the players that continue to follow the tactics of the past from those pioneering new trading strategies."
Growth commodities
Speaking at a major commodities summit in Switzerland last month, Trafigura CFO Christophe Salmon conceded that the age of "easy margins" is over, signaling a growing need for diversification to maintain a competitive advantage.
One area of growth in the energy space has been moves to tap opportunities within the rising tide of US shale oil exports. Trafigura is seeking permission for an offshore loading terminal off Texas in the Gulf of Mexico, and other traders are looking to open up export terminals.
The push toward more LNG, where trading volumes have been growing rapidly, is also gaining pace with traders signing long-term supply contracts. Gunvor, which became the biggest independent LNG trader last year after delivering about 11 million mt, is looking to acquire natural gas and LNG assets. Other key LNG traders, including Glencore, Trafigura, and Vitol, are investing in ships and terminals to handle the fuel.
Traders are also branching out into renewables and power grids. Gunvor recently acquired two biofuels plants in Spain, and Vitol is in a venture which last year completed construction of the UK's largest battery-park portfolio.
Threat from NOCs
Traders are also facing an emerging threat from national oil companies looking to expand trading operations and take a bigger role in directly marketing their crude and products.
Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil exporter, wants to become a top three global oil trader, trading as much as 6 million b/d of crude and refined products as it expands its downstream reach. Last week it agreed to swap its crude for high-sulfur fuel oil from Polish refiner PKN Orlen.
Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO is opening offices to trade spot crude and ADNOC is now hiring traders.
One key hurdle to a profitable trading operation, however, is a corporate culture which allows traders to extract value from deals across a fully integrated asset network, the head of oil trader Gunvor, Torbjorn Tornqvist, believes.
"If they are going to succeed, they are going to have to adapt to the rules of how a trading company works," Tornqvist told the commodities summit last month. "I'm not sure that's fully understood, and that they are prepared to give the entrepreneurial freedom to act, which is needed to create a successful trading company."
Despite Tornqvist's optimism, it is not clear that "entrepreneurial freedom" treasured by independent traders is guaranteed as regulation is getting tougher.
Market watchdogs are increasingly demanding greater transparency in energy trading and the cost of technology and data solutions needed to monitor, operate and report energy trading activity is pushing up overhead.
A growing chunk of trading revenues are going on IT departments to maintain a competitive edge and comply with legal and reporting scrutiny.
Feeding the algorithms
One of the few bright spots for oil traders is the expected higher volatility in fuel markets under the new International Maritime Organization sulfur cap for shipping fuel in 2020.
Some players are buying bunkering infrastructure as a way of monetizing the ensuing oil market shake-up. Mercuria is buying up bankrupt marine fuel logistics firm Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. Trafigura has set up a new bunkering team and merged its middle distillate and fuel oil trading desks in the hope of profiting from the market disruption.
According to Oliver Wyman, the longer-term answer to staying ahead of game in trading is for players to embrace analytical technology and hire more data scientists to forge new trading strategies and recapture the information edge.
With booming volumes of data from radar, thermal and optical satellite imagery, smarter machine-learning algorithms are needed to spot and predict patterns and trading opportunities across commodities and geographies.
"Commodity traders need to embrace new ways of working," the consultant report concludes. "The most important driver of the shakeout of the industry is trading giants' investments in predictive analytics …previously unthinkable digital capabilities will determine who will be the industry's leaders in the long term."
The post Energy traders brace for growing battle over shrinking margins: Fuel for Thought appeared first on The Barrel Blog.
https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/23/energy-traders-battle-shrinking-margins/
Saudi Arabia leads Middle Easts rush to renewables but policies lag behind ambition
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has ambitious plans to tap into the potential of renewables to fill a shortfall in regional power demand. But opinions are divided on how realistic the Kingdom's strategy is, given its track record of delayed projects and a shortage of domestic policies to help support investment.
The drive to increase renewables generation in the region is not limited to Saudi Arabia. With economies in the Middle East region set to grow in the coming years, power demand is projected to surge in tandem. Despite an abundance of natural resources, electricity supply is a major issue for Gulf countries and oil-fired generation is still the dominant source.
The case for renewables
Saudi Arabia's economy is set to grow 2.7% over the next year, according to ratings agency Moody's, and S&P Global Platts Analytics expects Saudi power demand to continue to grow at a rate of 3.3% through to 2030. The looming threat of a power crisis has helped speedball the idea that including more renewables in the region's energy mix could be the solution.
"Populations in the region are growing much faster than other areas of the world and are set to maintain a rapid pace of growth to [the] middle of the next decade," Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD told Platts. "The power infrastructure that's in place will need to be expanded or enhanced to meet that growth so a push into renewables makes obvious sense as part of that dynamic."
The push towards renewables has been led by Saudi Arabia, which earlier this year announced intentions to develop and install 60 GW of clean power sources over the next decade, including 40GW of solar power, and plans to eventually generate 200 GW from renewables. Around 30% of the power mix is to be supplied by renewables by 2030, with the remainder to be sourced from gas and some nuclear. This compares with a target of 15% of the power mix for Kuwait to be supplied by renewables by 2030, and a target of 10% for Oman by 2035, according to the latest GCC report from the International Renewables Energy Agency (IRENA).
Saudi Arabia's energy ministry has also set an interim target of developing 27.3 GW of clean power by 2024, of which 20 GW will be from solar.
"The region can't afford not to be too ambitious in trying to get more and more of its power mix provided by renewable sources given the power demand pressures and what will likely be increasing international pressure to clean up the energy mix in the region," Bell said. "So the 'over ambitious' nature of the targets may be more an issue of capacity to tender, construct and deliver projects rather than a lack of 'resources,' either in the form of capital or solar irradiation."
This year, the ministry released expressions of interest for the seven solar PV projects that will be tendered in the first half 2019, with a combined capacity of 1.51 GW which the ministry expects to attract $1.51 billion of investment this year. Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Khalid al-Falih said in January that around 12 renewables projects would be tabled for investment this year, including four solar PV parks and 300 MW solar power stations in Rabigh and Jeddah.
"By using our two awarded projects [Sakaka 300 MW Solar PV and Dumat Al Jandal 400 MW onshore wind] as benchmarks, we can estimate that required capex per 100 MW of Solar PV is $100 million and $125 million per 100 MW of onshore wind," Turki M Shehri, head of renewable energy projects at the ministry of energy, industry and mineral resources told Platts. "These two projects involved a capital investment of $800 million in 2018."
This can be compared with an investment of $765 million to develop Abu Dhabi's 100 MW Shams 1 project, the first concentrated solar power project in the Gulf region.
Aside from solar, Middle East countries are also increasingly looking to wind as an option for development. Oman, which already boasts the first onshore wind farm in the Gulf region (50MW), has been mulling the possibility of developing offshore wind farms.
Subsidies persist
One of the biggest obstacles facing Middle Eastern governments in their drive to push renewables is the sizable subsidies that they offer to their citizens. In 2018, the cost of electricity consumption for Saudi residents ranged from Riyal 0.18 – 0.30/kWh (Eur0.042–0.071/kWh). This eats into the profit margin for renewables developers, making it essentially economically unviable to develop alternative energy sources for consumer use.
At the moment, generation costs are higher than consumer electricity tariffs. Saudi Arabia is making attempts to raise tariffs and fuel prices, which could eventually bring consumer tariffs in line with or lower than the cost of renewables, plus the infrastructure needed to use them.
"Efficient price signals in both the electricity and fuel markets can certainly play a role in attracting more renewable investment," King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre, also known as KAPSARC, told Platts. "The speed of the development is subject to additional factors such as the regulatory framework and the financing mechanism available to support these projects."
Some countries, including Bahrain, are in the midst of developing incentive policies that would effectively make it cheaper for industrial customers to use photovoltaic solar power rather than gas. This is a first step, but the gap between current consumer prices and those required to breakeven or profit on renewable-generated power is much greater than it is at the industrial level.
"The [Bahraini] government is working on [policies] to try and incentivize," Shaikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's minister for oil, told Platts in an interview. "Today you can buy and install photovoltaic that will generate you power cheaper than you can buy on the grid, for commercial customers."
In Saudi Arabia, industry tariffs were not raised at all in 2018, which means that for solar to be cost-competitive in this sector, deeper reforms are needed than those that have begun implementation in the consumer, agricultural and commercial sectors.
Luring investment
Despite question marks over how robust investor appetite would be following the killing of Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi, one banking analyst who wished to remain anonymous told Platts that investor sentiment into Saudi Arabia remains strong and that a view towards commerce is prevailing over conscientious concerns.
"Given that auctions have already been awarded for both wind and solar, and sites have been carefully selected and are clearly assigned, we expect that the projects will be realized," David Linden, director at Wood Mackenzie told Platts. "Previous plans were not organized in the same way as the most recent ones, which may have contributed to earlier problems with execution."
More than 16 bidders took part in the latest Saudi auction from outside Saudi Arabia which vindicates this view, but investors have been concerned over the implementation of local content strategies, both for materials and for staff, and how this affects businesses operating in the Kingdom. Projects need to use at least 30% of local content, which limits the amount of imported material which can be used in development.
There are several reasons why Saudi Arabia's renewables plans could prove important for advancing its economy. The local content requirement will serve to create jobs and reduce the country's unemployment rate. And rising renewable generation will eat into the share of petroleum-product fired plants in the energy mix, freeing up crude that can be exported at international prices, hopefully fetching prices that will be worth making the switch.
To really entice consumers, it is critical that the Kingdom can offer supporting infrastructure and pricing structures which will enhance development. The Kingdom would do well to ensure cheap panels and turbines are available through ultra-large scale PV manufacturing, Linden told Platts. A $2 billion deal with China's Longi and South Korea's OCI could also give the Kingdom competitive panel pricing that will further the case for developing the technology. The deal will bring fully integrated solar manufacturing to Saudi Arabia. Feasibility studies for the deal are scheduled for completion in the first half of this year.
Saudi Arabia's past experience with renewables projects rings a cautionary note. A giant 200GW deal the Kingdom signed in March last year with Japan's Softbank Group Corp would be the world's biggest solar project and nearly triple Saudi Arabia's power generation capacity but there has been little sign of progress on the venture.
"Negotiations and [requests for proposals] with potential partners are ongoing and are being led by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Saudi Arabia General Investment Authority (SAGIA) – these partners include, but are not exclusive to, Softbank Energy," Shehri told Platts. "Most recently the PIF and SAGIA have issued an RFP inviting qualified companies to propose plans to build 1-to-2 GW per year of solar PV components manufacturing based within the Kingdom."
Nonetheless, the drive at least appears to be there, and despite a tumultuous 2018, investors do not seem to be shying away from the Kingdom. In the past, several government agencies were all pursuing renewables. Since 2017, they are all run and overseen within the ministry of energy, industry and mineral resources. "This unification of governance means that the Kingdom has been able to deploy two projects totalling 700 MW within one year – a process that would usually take closer to five years," Shehri told Platts.
The rate development of will rest on how quickly Saudi Arabia can implement deals and pass supporting legislation. The scale of the projects and timeframe for their development is not impossible, but without action on the Kingdom's side and changes aimed at supporting foreign investors, like clarity on local content requirements and available solar manufacturing in country, their grand plans may yield much more modest results.
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https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/18/saudi-arabia-renewables-policies/
US crude exports wane on tight Brent-WTI spread but low freight keeps door open
A tight spread between international crude benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate has depressed US crude export flows during the past four weeks, according to sources and data from US Customs and S&P Global Platts Analytics. However, low freight rates have created opportunities to move US crude cheaply.
The US exported 2.35 million b/d for the week ending April 5 – the lowest outflow since January 25, when 1.94 million b/d was exported, according to weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration. An estimated 2.28 million b/d of crude was exported from the US last week, according to Platts Analytics and data from Platts trade-flow software cFlow. This is the lowest estimated total reported since February 8. US crude exports were hindered in late January and February as dense fog along the Gulf Coast impacted vessel traffic.
Values for US crudes for export have been pressured lower on a narrow spread, which indicates a decrease in the competitiveness of WTI-based crudes on the global market as they become closer in price to their Brent-based peers.
The front-month swap spread last week reached $6.20/b – its narrowest level since July 26, 2018. However, the spread began widening again, reaching $6.99/b to end the week. The 30-day rolling average of the spread is about $7.70/b.
Despite the relatively narrow Brent-WTI spread, sources have said low freight rates and favorable margins elsewhere could help increase the flow of US crude to international destinations, as the costs to transport barrels are at multi-month lows.
"Brent/WTI has sold off quite a bit the last couple days since [crude inventory statistics], so [the arbitrage] is looking kind of workable," one market source said last week.
"Ebbs and flows. If barrels back up [in Houston, WTI at the Magellan East Houston terminal] will weaken and the arbitrage opens," another market source said about arbitrage opportunities. "One quiet period does not make a trend."
Low freight creates export opportunities
Low freight rates continue to provide a glimmer of opportunity for crude exports.
Freight for Aframaxes originating in the US Gulf Coast have reached their lowest level since August 2018 amid a buildup of tonnage in the region. Lists have lengthened on the back of weaker US crude export volumes and reduced regional Aframax voyages following US sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector, shipping sources have said.
Freight for Aframaxes on the 70,000 mt US Gulf Coast-UK Continent route was last assessed Friday at Worldscale 67.5, or $12.35/mt, last assessed lower on August 17, 2018, at $11.61/mt. Freight for the route has averaged $13.2680/mt so far in the second quarter of 2019, $7.4820/mt, or 36.1% lower than Q1 2019.
A flurry of fixture activity was reported last week, reflecting depressed freight rates amid an overtonnaged market.
ExxonMobil was seen fixing eight, prompt-loading crude cargoes aboard Aframax vessels that collectively can carry roughly 3.2 million barrels of oil for a trans-Atlantic voyage, according to S&P Global Platts fixtures data. Most of the vessels were positioned off the Gulf Coast near Galveston and Port Arthur on Monday, according to cFlow. At least one, Songa Coral, was observed Monday docked for loading at the Energy Transfer terminal in Nederland, Texas.
VLCC rates have also been at depressed levels, with freight for the 270,000 mt USGC-China route reaching its lowest level since July 2018 last week at lump sum $4.5 million. Rates for the long-haul route have firmed however, rebounding on the back of an uptick in cargo inquiry and limited ship availability. Freight climbed $250,000 Friday to lump sum $4.85 million, with shipping sources talking rates as high as $5.2 million Monday morning.
VLCC loading terminals in the US Gulf Coast such as Moda Midstream at Ingleside, Texas, and Enterprise Texas City have maintained loading levels in recent weeks – with a four-week average of 1.5 million barrels per week and 789,000 barrels per week, respectively.
However, export activity has been limited at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Terminal, which is the only location in the Gulf Coast where VLCCs can be fully loaded without the need for ship-to-ship transfers. The last VLCC reported to load and sail from LOOP was the Dilam on March 13. That vessel is set to arrive either in Singapore or Northern China later this month, according to cFlow.
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https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/17/us-crude-brent-wti-freight/
US oil output could see change of pace as producers rein in spending
Upstream oil and gas producers in the US are trapped in a dilemma they might have previously thought would be desirable: abundant production at low cost.
For decades, higher production from oil companies was what the market wanted and rewarded. If producers had to borrow and overspend to do it, the attitude was "c'est la vie". But in the last couple of years, it has become clear that what is desired, often voiced and certainly rewarded, is slower production growth and reined-in spending.
Capital discipline has been the watchword among upstream producers and Wall Street alike for at least 18 months. That could help brake production growth this year, along with small decreases in well productivity and efforts to return more capital to shareholders.
Increases in US unconventional production from shale, particularly shale oil, are the product of years of innovation. In particular, during the industry downturn between 2015-2017, E&P companies hacked away at their costs and forced down their breakeven prices. The industry has more than doubled production since 2011, and the fastest growth has been in the last couple of years.
According to US Energy Information Administration data, domestic oil production breached the 12 million b/d mark in March, and nearly 2 million b/d of that was added last year alone. S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts year-end production at 12.78 million b/d and end-2020 production at 13.48 million b/d.
Long-time energy economist Phil Verleger, in a report in January cited EIA projections of 800,000 b/d additional production from December 2018 to December 2019, adding that the International Energy Agency figures on 780,000 b/d of added production in the same time span and OPEC, 1.7 million b/d.
"The level of activity last year will be difficult to maintain without oversupplying the market," Credit Suisse analyst Jim Wicklund observed in a recent investor note.
But operators can't help it: the efficiencies achieved in recent years have made it easier to produce more oil from every well. They're not going away anytime soon, so something else will have to slow down their progress.
When crude prices dropped from over $100/b in mid-2014 to about half that level at the end of the year, operators learned the meaning of efficiency the hard way. Suddenly each barrel they produced was bringing in 50% of the money it had done just months earlier, so they had to make each drilling and production dollar they spent work harder.
From necessity to invention
Through diligent operational streamlining, they squeezed every last drop of value out of each stage of the E&P chain.
They eventually brought their breakeven price – the cost of producing a barrel of oil to get a 10% return – down to levels that would have seemed miraculously low a few years before. These days, oil breakevens for the best operators in the most prolific plays are not too much more than the cost of an extra-large pizza with the works, plus a magnum of Coca-Cola and tip for delivery.
The continuous technological wizardry of well drilling and completion improvements allowed the industry to produce far more oil and gas in far less time at ever-lower costs – and at extremely economic return rates which often yielded 100% or more. But it also brought the supply genie ahead of the demand curve faster than expected.
Producers exploiting US plays from Texas to North Dakota, from Pennsylvania to Wyoming, have pulled gargantuan volumes of shale oil and gas out of the earth in the last 15 years. Gas was the initial commodity to be produced unconventionally – meaning horizontally – starting in the early 2000s. So successful were producers at coaxing large gas volumes out of shale wells that eventually the domestic market was facing a glut that pushed gas prices to low levels within a few years. Prices have continued to stagnate.
Pre-shale, a decent initial flow rate for a conventional gas well was about 1,000 Mcf/d. Now many shale wells yield initial rates of 20,000 Mcf/d and double that rate is not unheard of. Those numbers have kept gas storage bins full and gas exports to markets around the world humming.
Increases in crude well outputs are also robust even if not as dramatic. Conventional oil wells of the past might have yielded 500 b/d, while early shale oil wells saw typical initial outputs of 1,000 b/d. That has frequently doubled and sometimes tripled, while in rare cases 5,000 b/d or 6,000 b/d have been eked out of wells. Even so, total oil production growth over the last eight years as the shale oil revolution blossomed has been phenomenal. In January 2011, US oil production was just below 5.5 million b/d. By January 2015, just as the recent industry downturn had begun, domestic oil production stood at 9.3 million b/d. That increase was largely achieved at prices of $90/b-$100/b.
Production peaked in April of that year at 9.6 million b/d, but fell back because operators cut back activity and capex during the downturn. The 50 largest E&P companies slashed their 2015 capital budgets collectively more than 40% year on year, and another 25% or so for 2016, according to research from EY (formerly Ernst & Young). By that time, oil prices had fallen to levels around $30/b just as operators were releasing their annual budgets at the start of that year.
But then, oil prices stabilized around $50/b for several months, and heading into 2017, E&P operators were more sanguine. The constancy of prices lent confidence to the sector and the operational improvements forced by low crude prices had put them in good stead to produce oil for less than before. Capital budgets rose that year about 32% to a total $114.5 billion – still far below the $198 billion spent in 2014. But spending didn't need to return to former levels, as E&P operators found they could still grow production at $50/b.
Even at capex levels 65% to 70% lower, during the downturn, US production from January 2015 to January 2017 dropped only about 6%, to 8.8 million b/d. And given the efficiency improvements achieved during that time, it didn't take long for US production to climb back up.
From November 2016 to November 2017, at an average price of $50/b, US oil production grew by 1.2 million to 10 million b/d. And from November 2017 to November 2018, at an average price of $64.83/b, production grew just under 1.8 million b/d, hitting 11.9 million b/d.
In the low oil-price environment of 2015-17, operators drastically reduced the number of days needed to drill wells. They became more precise in placing drill bits within an oil formation to land in a reservoir's sweetest spot. And they continually streamlined and perfected their recipes for completing wells at increasingly lower costs.
Continually evolving well completion designs have allowed operators to bring down the cost of a well by about a third or more. At the start of 2014, the Permian Midland –the eastern and part of that giant West Texas basin– had an average oil breakeven cost of about $44/b; currently it is around $30/b, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics data.
Prices point to slowing growth
What to do about the US supply glut, then? It is likely that a combination of technical production limits, investor demands and the simple factor of oil price will start to redress the imbalance this year. Lower crude prices should put a brake on production growth this year by some order of magnitude. E&P company capital budgets for 2019 are coming in flat or lower on average, and some operators that late last year guided this year's spending at higher levels, have revised them down.
Also, operators are being encouraged by market forces to spend money in other ways than growing production. E&P companies that return more cash to shareholders are being rewarded, since in some cases dividends were reduced or eliminated during the downturn. Companies that are more disciplined and keep spending at the level of cash flows – which was uncommon in years past when operators typically outspent their income – have also been rewarded with higher share price. Access to credit is also a likely consideration in times of volatile oil prices, as a more restrained approach to spending may help when companies are looking to the capital markets for funding.
In any case, premium acreage – the so-called "Tier 1" areas – is starting to decline for many companies, although some claim that continued efficiencies and cost control can turn many drilling locales to premium status that were not originally deemed that way.
Well productivity also appears to be reaching a plateau, many operators say. In a recent report on basin trends in Q4, Evercore ISI analyst Stephen Richardson said more corporate level efficiencies are expected in 2019, although finding the optimum spacing between wells remains an ongoing challenge.
Richardson's examination "reveals the pace of incremental [well] performance gains have tapered across basins," he said, adding: "The market needs producers to exhibit restraint in 2019 plans."
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https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/16/us-oil-change-pace-2019/
Squeezed global sugar market looks to holy grails and black swans
The global sugar industry is grappling with slowing growth in consumption coupled with oversupply, which have pushed prices down to unsustainable levels.
In such a challenging environment, it's understandable that the sector is searching for a holy grail to fix its demand-side problems, while also watching carefully for black swan events that could upend the current fundamental picture. This was the mindset in evidence at the Ninth Platts/Kingsman Geneva Sugar Conference held on April 2-3.
For Alexandre Luneau, executive vice-president of Tereos, the world's second-largest corporate sugar produce, the holy grail is a food product that is natural, healthy and tasty – but that includes sugar as an essential part if its formulation. The concern with promoting sugar's role as a vital ingredient comes in the wake of anti-obesity campaigns in many countries targeting sugar consumption.
For some consumers, acceptance on grounds of taste has to be weighed against the health factor. After the introduction of the sugar tax in the UK, both PepsiCo and Coca Cola kept the sugar level unchanged in their classic colas, according to Martin Todd, managing director of market intelligence and analysis provider LMC.
Many at the conference said reformulating soft drinks was relatively easy – just cut sugar, add water – but for confectioners it is much more complicated. They not only have to take into account taste, they also have to deal with bulk and consistency. As Mars Wrigley's Senior Strategic Sourcing Manager Yury Sharanov said, if you reformulate incorrectly you can end up with a Snickers bar the size of a credit card.
That will be cold comfort in the face of slowing demand, mainly due to lower sugar consumption in developed markets. Combined with overproduction, it has led to benchmark futures prices below the cost of production in even the most efficient producers. This was unsustainable for exporters, Luneau said. To illustrate the tough times the sector is facing, on the same day of his presentation, S&P Global Ratings changed the outlook on its BBB- rating of the world's largest corporate sugar producer, Germany's Suedzucker, to negative from stable. However, Luneau did see some relief ahead, forecasting that the 2019-20 (October-September) and 2020-21 seasons would be in deficit.
One of the factors in this was lower sugar production from Center-South Brazil due in part to a large part of the sucrose going to make fuel ethanol. Luneau said he thought Brazil was the best place for the sugar investment because of its Renovabio biofuels program and a pro-sugar industry environment not found in other regions.
However, the key to fuel ethanol consumption lies in the gasoline price. For drivers of Brazil's large fleet of flex-fuel cars the ethanol price needs to be 70% the gasoline price to be economical, because it is less efficient. One of the game changers in ethanol consumption in recent years has been state-controlled oil company Petrobras aligning its ex-refinery gasoline price with the world price, making ethanol more attractive to drivers. Any move toward subsidizing gasoline or a major drop in the world price could be a potential black swan event.
Another fuel-related development, IMO 2020, could also be a black swan for the sugar sector – judging by the low number of raised hands in the conference hall when asked who had heard of it. This is the implementation by the International Maritime Organization of a 0.5% sulfur emissions limit from marine transportation fuel starting January 1, 2020, down from 3.5% now.
Claudio Galimberti, head of oil demand and refining analytics at Platts, said the need to produce lower sulfur fuel for the marine sector would result in refineries making less gasoline. As a result, gasoline prices would rise, which in the case of Brazil could mean more sucrose going to ethanol and lower sugar production. However, for Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, the effect of IMO 2020 on freight rates might be a game-changer. Similarly, changes in freight rates due to the new regulation have the potential to alter trade flows in general, as well as the economics of refining raw sugar.
A more tangible opportunity may lie in Africa's growing demand for sugar. With the continent's population expected to grow to 4.4 billion or 39% of the global population in 2100, from 1.3 billion or 17% in 2018, sugar consumption looks set to soar, according to Alexander Stewart, director of consultancy Abercore. Assuming annual per capita sugar consumption remains constant at a relatively low 17 kg – less than half the approximately 35kg consumed in the US and EU – the continent would need an extra 19 million mt of sugar by 2050 and 53 million mt by 2100, Stewart said. That compares with current world production of around 180 million mt a year. Africa imports around 50% of its sugar needs.
However, Stewart warned of a whole host of risks, albeit manageable ones: currency risk, credit risk, long routes to market, security risk consisting of theft, losses and smuggling, as well as political and macro-economic risks. He gave an illustration of the logistical problems combined with the theft risk in the method of taking sugar from a slow-moving truck climbing a hill, using a hole bored in one of the bags, and attaching a bucket to the truck to collect the stolen sugar.
El Nino normally brings wet weather to the south of Brazil, which can delay cane harvesting and dilute its sucrose content. Equally important, it could reduce the monsoon rains in the world's largest sugar producer, India.
It was perhaps fitting then that the final image of the conference was a family of black swans gliding along a body of water.
The post Squeezed global sugar market looks to holy grails and black swans appeared first on The Barrel Blog.
https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/15/squeezed-global-sugar-black-swans/
Alaskan oil developers face technical challenges to exploit new plays as output declines
As Alaska's oil production declines, enormous attention is being paid to even the slightest hint of a find that could turn the state's fortunes around.
Much hope has been pinned on the development of the Nanushuk, a broadly-dispersed set of rocks along the Colville River that extends west into the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
Some companies have had success finding oil, with claims ranging from a conservative 500 million barrels to over 3 billion barrels of recoverable resources.
But a recent dry hole in the Nanushuk has brought to light some of the economic and technical challenges facing those who want to tap into those potential riches.
The stakes are high for Alaska. The Nanushuk discoveries have created new interest in the North Slope within industry and excitement among state leaders who have long worried about the gradual decline of the existing fields.
Alaska is now producing about 500,000 b/d, one fourth of production in 1988.
While enormous reservoirs are believed to exist offshore, attempts to explore there have not been successful. And while the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is also believed to hold prolific resources, political and environmental opposition makes development there problematic.
High hopes and dry holes
For months, Alaska and industry officials have talked up the Nanushuk.
ConocoPhillips and Repsol, along with independent Armstrong Oil and Gas, have made potential billion-barrel discoveries in the area. Keiran Wulff, president of Oil Search Alaska, which has taken over Armstrong's properties, told an Alaska industry conference last fall his company believes reserves at the Pikka discovery will reach a billion barrels after winter drilling results are evaluated.
ConocoPhillips said last summer the Willow find could reach 700 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is still drilling evaluation wells at the project.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy gushed about Nanushuk's potential at the CERAWeek conference in Houston in March, claiming companies have found 5 billion barrels, although that has not been confirmed.
But not everyone hits it big. One exploration group, a consortium of three small independents, has seen its hopes sour. Led by 88 Energy, an Australian company, the consortium drilled Winx-1, an exploration well a few miles east of Horseshoe-1/1A, a big discovery drilled in 2017 by Armstrong.
But the drill bit at Winx-1 dug into bad reservoir rock this spring. It is the first known dry hole in the Nanushuk, at least where results are public. All signs initially looked good at Winx-1. Nanushuk rocks were present and seismic profiling indicated the presence of potential traps. Other tests indicated the presence of liquids in the rocks consistent with the nearby Horseshoe well.
Then came bad news: Drilling showed that layers of clays dispersed through the rocks served to bind the petroleum fluids to prevent them from flowing. Winx-1 was abandoned by 88 Energy and Red Emperor Resources, one of the Australian partners. The third partner, UK -based Pantheon Resources, has refocused its efforts to other North Slope prospects.
Geological and economic risks
The Nanushuk and a related geologic formation, the Torok, are still new on the horizon for industry explorers. But the existence of the rocks and the fact they hold oil have long been known.
Over decades, companies exploring the NPR-A and state lands along the Colville River drilled through the Nanushuk and Torok on the way to deeper prospects that appeared of better quality. Over the years about 150 wells have been drilled in the area, said Dave Houseknecht, a US Geological Survey geologist, at an Alaska resources conference last fall.
Paul Decker, a former state geologist, said in an interview there were oil shows in many wells but no one stopped to take a close look at the rocks until recently.
Now, the advent of advanced seismic imaging and other analytic tools give industry the ability to spot stratigraphic traps that were previously undetected, and new drilling techniques like horizontal wells allow companies to develop resources previously thought uneconomic.
Decker said ConocoPhillips was the first to reassess the Nanushuk in its exploration in the northeast NPR-A and that put the company on the path to Willow, a potential billion-barrel discovery now planned for development.
Repsol and its partner Armstrong followed, exploring the Nanushuk on state-owned lands near the Colville River, discovering Pikka, another hoped-for billion-barrel find. Armstrong recently sold its interests to Oil Search, an Australian company.
Caelus Energy, a Dallas independent, said it made what may be a significant find in the Torok, another geologic formation, in nearshore waters at Smith Bay, northwest of Willow and Pikka.
"We estimate that there is a lot of oil in these plays, but there is also a lot of uncertainty because the reservoir quality (of the Nanushuk) appears to deteriorate from north to south," Houseknecht said at the Alaska Resource Development Council conference in November. The Torok formation appears to be of lower quality, too.
Besides the geologic risk there's also more economic risk as prospects are explored further west and farther from infrastructure in the NPR-A, requiring expensive roads and pipelines. Another complication may be that wells in the Nanushuk and Torok, where the rocks are tight, may have to be hydraulically fractured. That will require mobilization of equipment and possibly trucking water, because water sources are scarce in the petroleum reserve.
For the long run, Houseknecht is bullish, however. "We believe there could be eight billion barrels discovered in the Nanushuk and Torok across NPR-A and the adjacent state submerged lands," he said.
Most of the resource potential, about 7 billion barrels, is onshore in the northeast NPR-A where ConocoPhillips is exploring.
The post Alaskan oil developers face technical challenges to exploit new plays, as output declines appeared first on The Barrel Blog.
https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/15/alaskan-oil-developersnew-plays/
Energy and commodities highlights: Sanctions US clean energy goals LNGs second wave
Commodity markets were weighing supply side risks this week, as key producing countries continue to grapple with sanctions and political upheaval.
In Libya, Africa's third-largest oil producer and a significant supplier of gas to Europe, violence has escalated and the country is in danger of falling back into civil war. International oil companies like Italy's Eni have started evacuating staff from Tripoli.
Meanwhile, despite sanctions Iran's oil exports recovered in March off the back of Chinese and South Korean buying. But based on data and information from market sources, Iranian production has recently declined, and the country drew heavily on stocks to support the export surge.
Russia's energy sector is also subject to US sanctions, which include measures targeting the development of Russian deepwater and Arctic offshore projects. Speaking at a regional forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that sanctions had hampered, but not stopped, development of hydrocarbons in the Russian Arctic.
Separately, there were new question marks in Europe over key routes for the transport of Russian fuels. The European Commission cast doubt over the timely startup of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, while the Belarusian president threatened to suspend Russian oil transit through the country amid trade frictions with its neighbour.
GRAPHIC OF THE WEEK
US states are ramping up their mandates for clean and renewable energy in the face of federal climate inaction, declining renewable costs and demands from electricity customers, but new policies and yet-to-exist technology will be needed for states to meet ambitious 100% clean energy goals.
Click for full-size infographic
VIDEO: LNG'S SECOND WAVE
Vivek Chandra, CEO of Texas LNG and author of the book Fundamentals of Natural Gas: An International Perspective, talks to Eric Yep, senior editor at S&P Global Platts. They discuss the second wave of US LNG projects, what it means for Asian customers, the impact of trade war tensions and his proposed LNG export terminal.
Analysis: VLGC freight rate hits multi-year high amid logistical issues, open arbitrage
Logistical issues, a wide open arbitrage for US LPG to Asia and an evolution in global trade flows have pushed freight for Very Large Gas Carriers to multi-year highs in the Middle East and US Gulf Coast regions.
February global EV sales fall 21% as Chinese market slows
Global sales of plug-in electric vehicles fell by 21% in February month on month, led by a sharp fall in China due to seasonal factors and ahead of the government cutting subsidies for EVs in March, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
Canada's oil supply future at heart of upcoming Alberta election
An oil policy fight is heating up as Alberta prepares to go to the polls on April 16, following production cuts and lack of progress on new pipeline capacity. Premier Rachel Notley's party could lose to opposition leader Jason Kenney, who has promised quicker action to bring more Alberta crude to international markets.
"This will require more diligence be done by every business that is considering doing things that are even now second and third orders removed from what you might think of as a traditional connection to the Iranian economy."
– Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, as the government moved to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist group.
The post Energy and commodities highlights: Sanctions, US clean energy goals, LNG's second wave appeared first on The Barrel Blog.
https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/12/highlights-sanctions-us-clean-energy/
Insight from Shanghai: Chinas shift in language signals private sector in the ascendant
In March, China's elite gathered in Beijing for the annual "two sessions" meeting of China's legislative bodies, the National People's Congress (NPC) and the People's Political Consultative Conference.
While much of what happens at the two sessions is at best marginalia for all but the most dedicated of China watchers, the key themes of the meeting and the government Work Report that outlines policy, priorities and targets for the coming the year, are worthy of attention.
As expected, the overall direction follows the 13th Five Year Plan released back in 2016: coordinated "innovation-driven development", environmental protection and plenty more "opening up". But as always with Chinese policy documents, the devil is in the detail.
Slower growth over more debt
That economic growth will continue to slow is hardly a surprise. But this year's target of 6 – 6.5% offers more leeway than last year's target of around "6.5%". This is recognition of the uncertainties facing the economy in 2019, from domestic risks in the financial sector and excessive local government debt to uncertainty around the global outlook and trade tensions with the US. The government does not want short-term growth if that means a buildup of debt that could pose a risk to long term financial stability. Those hoping for a cheap hit of stimulus to boost demand for everything from steel to diesel should growth start sagging will likely be disappointed in 2019.
The focus has moved instead to supporting growth and employment by reducing costs for manufacturers and small businesses. VAT has been cut across a range of sectors and the amount of social insurance that companies need to pay to employ workers has been reduced. The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) estimates that the VAT cut will reduce the tax liability of CISA member mills by around Yuan 22 billion ($3 billion). But the main effect will be felt by consumers with lower prices supporting domestic consumption – albeit at a cost. The tax cuts will put pressure on government budgets at all levels. Local governments will be able to access special bonds to help balance their books, but overall, governments will have to tighten their belts in 2019 by reducing spending or finding new ways of raising money.
A greater role for the private sector
There has always been tension at the heart of the Chinese economic model between the role of government and the private sector in the economy. This year the private sector appears to be in the ascendant with no less than nine mentions of private enterprise, investment and capital in the government Work Report, up 50% on last year. This should mean a more favorable environment for private business and startups as well as increased lending to small and private businesses, which have historically found it hard to obtain finance.
Markets and reform of SOEs
At the same time, the government will continue to reform the SOEs. This won't necessarily mean rolling back the state. But it should lead to a better managed, more profitable state sector with fewer unprofitable companies that are a drag on the economy and a drain on government budgets.
Market reforms will continue in the energy sector with further development of electricity spot markets building on the pilot power trading schemes already underway in some regions. Creating more competitive electricity markets will help address the problem of idle renewable capacity as well as reduce the role of coal. Ultimately, it could help lower the cost of electricity for industry.
Where power leads, so oil and gas will follow. The government has experimented with setting up gas pricing hubs, but the dominance of the "three barrels of oil", as Chinese the oil and gas majors are often called, has impeded the development of competitive markets. In order to lay the groundwork for these the government will create a new national oil and gas pipeline company from the transmission assets currently in the hands of the integrated SOEs. Separating distribution from sales of oil and gas is just the first step in allowing oil and gas markets to develop in China. The government also envisages opening up upstream oil and gas exploration to non-state capital. But without further detail, it's hard to judge how transformative introducing more competition into the upstream sector might be.
There is no letup in the battle against pollution as we move into the second year of the "three critical battles" (the others are guarding against financial risk and poverty alleviation). Structural adjustments and "supply side reform" will also continue, but the language is around strengthening and upgrading industry rather than removing overcapacity. Expect emissions reductions by upgrading steel plants and promoting the use of cleaner coal, rather than another round of coal and steel capacity cuts. Meanwhile, increasing utilization of solar, wind and hydro capacity and increasing the use cleaner fuels in heating in northern China will constrain the growth of coal.
If the government Work Report is anything to go by we may have reached peak "Belt and Road". The term is referenced just five times throughout the report, down from six mentions last year. Instead the talk is of defending economic globalization, free trade, and win-win development.
The post Insight from Shanghai: China's shift in language signals private sector in the ascendant appeared first on The Barrel Blog.
https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/10/chinas-language-private-sector/


text:
EMUSIC PREPS SUBSCRIPTION MODEL
Site To Offer Unlimited Downloads For As Low As $9.99 Per Month—But Wait, There's More!
EMusic.com, a seller of digital downloads, will now offer a subscription service that could become a model for monetizing the Internet music business.
In addition to selling tracks or compact-disc collections individually, the company plans to give consumers unlimited rights to download music from its site for a monthly fee ranging from $9.99 to $19.99, The Wall Street Journal says.
EMusic.com says it will share the revenue with record labels and music publishers that have licensed works in its catalog.
The company's business model change is an obvious reaction to competitor Napster, which has, arguably, made millions of computer users accustomed to downloading recordings for free. Napster's rise has made it harder for EMusic.com and other Internet start-ups to sell downloaded recordings.
Napster, facing lawsuits from the recording industry and some musicians for copyright infringements, will be tested on Wednesday (7/26).
Gene Hoffman, EMusic.com's CEO, predicts the court will shut down Napster, making unlimited downloads for a flat fee the next best thing once free recordings become unavailable. "That is a short-term phenomenon," he said of Napster. "I don't see copyright laws ending anytime soon."
Hoffman said his company will eventually get licenses for the big-name recordings, and also may adjust its subscription pricing based on consumer feedback. It plans to charge $19.99 for a single month of unlimited access to its music; a three-month subscription is $14.99 a month, while a 12-month subscription is $9.99 a month. It will continue to sell individual recordings, which start at 99 cents a track.
EMusic.com will unveil its subscription model at Plug.In, a music conference this week in New York.
TAGS: yes

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Each day, when directors, teachers, and staff walk into Early Connections' centers, we look forward to the day because we know we will watch wonderful things happen. Some days will be noisy and messy, and others will be quieter and maybe even tidy! The children in our classrooms will make friends, they will negotiate, they will ask questions, they will grow, they will learn something new, they will discover something that interests them. We are here to guide children on that journey, to help them succeed and be excited by what they are learning.
In this report , we focus on Early Connections' work and activities throughout the 2017-2018 fiscal year, not only within our organization but in cooperation with families, friends, and our community. We pledge to continue our commitment to support young children and their families through leadership, advocacy, and quality programs in early childhood education!
Thank you for your interest in Early Connections!
Here are some pics from yesterday's field trip to visit the Erie Bayhawks. It was lots of fun. We got to read books, try on actual jerseys, tour the building, touch a real basketball hoop and take lots of pics. Had a blast, can't wait to see them again in January!!!
Arthur's Thanksgiving was a great choice of books to read to the preschool children at City Center last week. They enjoyed having Aubrea Haynes from the Erie County Clerk's office share the story of Arthur's dilemma of who will play the part of the turkey in the school play.
Preschool children at City Center were delighted to have Kim Thomas, Northwest Regional Director, DCED, read Llama Llama Red Pajama to them. We hope she will visit us again soon!
Staff, Board members, family and friends gathered at Mad Mex on November 13th in support of Early Connections. Food, fun, and raffles were part of an exciting evening!! Thank you to those who attended, those who donated, and especially to our chairperson, Kiwanian Linda Smalley!
City Center staff Megan Bruno-Osborne, Carissa Kepple, Kelly Ocasio, and Meghan Snider represented Early Connections at the Millcreek Mall's recent annual Gingerbread House competition. They did an awesome job decorating EC's house!
Early Connections children created artwork to thank our local Veterans. Their artwork is proudly displayed at Texas Roadhouse restaurant.
City Center preschool children were excited to have Alicia Evers and Conor Dawley from Highmark Caring Place visit them recently. They read "The Good Bye Book" and did a fish craft. Thank you for donating the book to our classroom so we can read it again and again!
Congratulations to Megan Bruno and Jessica Lewis for having been recognized at the UnifiedErie Youth Awards ceremony on October 11, 2018! The Youth Work Awards honor amazing adults in our community who go above and beyond to help all young people feel supported, valued and engaged.


Natalia first heard about Pilates in a Physiotherapy workshop in Sao Carlos, Brazil, whilst studying her B.Sc. in Physiotherapy. Natalia was impressed by her teacher's ability to execute exercises so precisely, with unusual control and mobility. After graduating she decided to travel to Australia to study English and experience living in a country that was new to her.
After completing her English course Natalia began her studies in Sports and Remedial Massage at the Australian College of Natural Therapies. The years passed by but Natalia couldn't leave – she was already in love with Australia.
After massaging full time for a few years at a chiropractic clinic in Sydney, Natalia had to stop because of the pain she suffered in her shoulders due to the work. Her doctor's advice was to start Pilates as a rehabilitation program. Reconnecting with Pilates inspired her to become an instructor, and she commenced her training at Polestar.
As a physiotherapist Natalia was very fulfilled studying Pilates, inspired by how spectacular the exercises are for the prevention of injuries, rehabilitation and wellness of the body and mind.
I just love Pilates and all the benefits it brings to my body and mind. As an instructor and physiotherapist I think it is one of the best forms of exercise that my clients can do. It rehabilitates the body, assists in the prevention of injuries and improves technique and strength thus improving performance in other sports and activities.


The latest beauty influencer to join the Skin Collective is sharing what makes her skin beautiful and the products that help her achieve her signature glow.
Dr. Maritza Baez is an award winning medical physician who loves natural skin care and beauty products. She's joined the Skin Collective to share her faves!
Laura Bruj is an influencer who knows her natural skin care. She shares with us her favorite natural skin care products and why she loves her skin.


Test your understanding of Python program structure.
Take this quiz after reading our Structuring Python Programs tutorial.
The quiz contains 8 questions and there is no time limit. You'll get 1 point for each correct answer. At the end of the quiz, you'll receive a total score. The maximum score is 100%. Good luck!


Instructional leadership is a significant factor in facilitating, improving, and promoting the academic progress of students. Dozens of characteristics have been identified from research studies on school improvement and instructional leader effectiveness, including high expectations of students and teachers, an emphasis on instruction, provision of professional development, and use of data and feedback to evaluate students' progress.
In this highly interactive and engaging session, participants will examine the most contemporary research available about specific leadership behaviors that have the greatest influence on student achievement. This includes promoting and participating in teacher learning and development, and possessing the knowledge, skills, and principles to have an unmistakably positive impact on students and teachers.
This three part series is designed to assist leaders in creating a detailed plan to gather evidence that leads to deeper impact and increased levels of organizational success while promoting focus, clarity, and accountability.
As teams explore each of these seven strands, they are introduced to a range of evidence gathering tools designed to inform them about their impact as leaders. Once the evidence is collected, it is shared and analyzed with other school leaders during the subsequent next session. Participants will then receive support to create and develop an action plan based on the evidence collected. Sessions are scheduled within two month intervals to ensure adequate time to collect and share data.
By the end of each of the three days, participants will understand those leadership behaviors that have the greatest impact on student achievement and the importance of looking at and evaluating their own leadership influence.
Participants are given time to reflect on personal leadership attributes and make comparisons to those leadership actions that truly make the most difference.
Participants will possess the knowledge, skills, and principles they need to have an unmistakably positive impact on students and teachers.


text:
A Jeep pickup will restore America's manhood
Ray Wert
Filed to:Rants
The Jeep pickup truck is every red-blooded American male's ultimate automotive wet dream. The mother-truckers over at PickupTrucks.com just got a chance to drive one. If America is ever to get its manhood back, Jeep must once again build a pickup truck.
The history of the Jeep pickup truck goes back almost as far as the civilian Jeep itself. In 1947, just a few years after the CJ-2A — the first "Civilian Jeep" — was introduced, Willys-Overland Motors began selling the "Willys Jeep Truck." Later came more full-size pickups like the Jeep Gladiator of the 1960s and its successor, the J-10 and "Honcho" variant.
Then came the Jeep pickup truck heyday of the 1980s where we saw the CJ-8 "Scrambler" pickup, the CJ-10 and the Comanche — three compact-sized pickup trucks built off of Jeeps. But that all ended in 1992 when a now Chrysler-owned Jeep killed the Comanche — the "last" Jeep pickup.
But some — like American Expeditionary Vehicles and its Brute conversion kit — kept the dream of the Jeep pickup alive. The "Brute" kit allows you to take a "TJ" (the 1997-2006 generation) Wrangler and weld an extender to the back allowing you to turn your Jeep into a pickup truck.
There's other options available too — like the ability to slip a Hemi between the rails of a TJ Wrangler to create the ultimate off-road-ready sportscar-UV. The result is simply epic. We drove the flat-black Brute over yonder on 35s with a two-inch lift a couple of years ago and immediately fell in love with it.
But now there's Jeep's new JK-8 Independence project truck conversion kit — the same one driven by PickupTrucks.com — that will let you add the same utility to your current "JK" generation Jeep — only without all of the slicing n' dicing required by the AEV conversion.
Either way — whether you're converting a JK with a Jeep kit or a TJ with AEV's kit — the result is the greatest vehicle ever created by man — a Jeep pickup truck.
But wait, how could a Jeep pickup truck, in a world where supercars reign supreme, be the greatest vehicle man has ever known?
Because whether you're a JDM tuner, horsepower-obsessed muscle head, or a car-hating greenie, if you have even an ounce of manhood in you, when you see a Jeep with a pickup truck bed you will think the exact same thing as me — "Whoa!"
That's because a pickup-packing Jeep stimulates the cro-Magnon center of every man's brain — that area we learned to keep dormant and hidden after childhood. It's the animalistic part of our brain that drove us to collect G.I. Joes and set them on fire in our backyards and that made us love watching construction vehicles drop giant loads of dirt.
A Jeep pickup takes both of those thoughts, wraps 'em up in one neat, little bow and slaps it under the Christmas tree for us to tear off in a heated adrenaline-fueled frenzy.
Jeeps still carry a connotation of war and utility and off-road prowess and pickup trucks are all about utility. Put those together in one vehicle and we'll giggle with glee.
But yeah, here's the other thing — now that I live in Manhattan I don't have time or space anymore to convert a Jeep. What I want is a production Jeep pickup truck. And I don't want it being hinted at — I want it to actually happen and happen soon.
Plus, how can American men explain a project vehicle's purpose to our girlfriends, wives, significant others, mothers being that we want to drive over rocks and get dirty and burn G.I. Joes with our homemade match-fueled flamethrowers? They probably wouldn't understand.
How could they? It's a guy thing.
But maybe, just maybe, we can justify that purchase if it were a production vehicle.
I keep hearing America has lost its manhood. Well, isn't it about time Jeep helped the American male regain it by making this wet dream a reality?


text:
Cherry Picked - Math department announces award winners
Math department announces award winners
LAWRENCE — The University of Kansas mathematics department recognized its undergraduate and graduate students and faculty for outstanding academic and teaching achievements at its 56th annual honors banquet earlier this spring at the KU Adams Alumni Center.
This year the math department presented $88,750 in awards and scholarships. Award winners are announced in the spring. Scholarship recipients will be announced in the fall. Funds for the awards and scholarships are administered through the KU Endowment Association.
Two students received certificates and Jayhawk statues from the Kansas Algebra Program for their outstanding contributions to teaching, tutoring and extra duties. Winners were Meghan Park, of Overland Park, and Zach Zwibelman, of Leawood.
KU's math department annually recognizes outstanding graduate students.
Lucas Chaffee, Kirkland, Wash., received the Florence Black Award for Excellence in Teaching by a graduate student. The award was established in memory of Black, a faculty member who served from 1918 to 1960.
Jarod Hart, Hortonville, Wis., received the John Bunce Award. The Bunce award commemorates a KU math professor who served from 1970 to 1991 and his extraordinary concern for the welfare and intellectual development of graduate students.
Mohamed Badawy, of Lawrence, Daniel Harnett, Coffeyville, and Mingji Zhang, China, received the Paul F. Conrad Graduate Scholarship. This award is given in his memory. Conrad was the first Henry J. Bischoff Professor of Mathematics.
Coung Ngo, Vietnam, received the Ralph Byers Student Award, which commemorates a KU math professor who served from 1987-2007. The award is presented to an outstanding graduate student in numerical analysis.
Jeremy Martin, associate professor of mathematics, received the G. Baley Price award for Excellence in Teaching, presented by the Mathematics Graduate Student Organization. This award is given to a faculty member who displays the greatest ability and effectiveness in teaching graduate math courses.
Martin also received the Morrison Foundation Teaching Award. This award was established in 2008 by the Don and Pat Morrison Foundation to recognize outstanding teaching in mathematics.
David Lerner, professor of mathematics, received the Max Wells Teaching Award, in recognition of outstanding or exemplary teaching in the field of mathematics by a KU faculty member in mathematics.
Finally, this was the 31st year of the annual mathematics prize examinations given by the mathematics department. This competition is open to all undergraduates at KU. The winners of the Junior Level Prize Competition were Christopher Mayo, Clay Center, for first place; Robert Winslow, Olathe, for second place, and Yuanxiang Feng, Lenexa, for third. Mayo also won the top freshman award. The winners for the Senior Level Prize Competition were Bryan Harris and Hao Wang, China, tied for first place; and CJ Harries, Wichita, and Michael Agre, Overland Park, tied for third.
Updated on: 07/22/2013


text:
Q: Como informo pro python que uma celula do excel esta em branco Preciso informar o python que se a célula "Relação" estiver em BRANCO, ele pule pra próxima página e se estiver preenchida que ele preencha com o conteúdo da célula.
O código está funcionando normalmente quando a célula está preenchida, porém não funciona se a célula estiver em branco.
Segue código abaixo:
             import pyautogui
             import pandas as pd

             formulario = pd.read_excel(r'C:\formulario.xlsx', sheet_name='Planilha1')
             pyautogui.hotkey('alt', 'tab')

             #se "Relação" está em branco, pular pra próxima página

             if formulario['Relação'] [0] == '' :
             pyautogui.hotkey('down')
             pyautogui.hotkey('tab')
             pyautogui.hotkey('enter')

             #se relção está preenchida, preencher com os dados contidos e pular pra proxima página.

             elif formulario['Relação'] [0] == 'Mãe/Pai':
             pyautogui.hotkey('tab')
             pyautogui.hotkey('enter')
             pyautogui.sleep(3)
             pyautogui.hotkey('tab')
             pyautogui.write(str(formulario['Sobrenome'] [0]))
             pyautogui.hotkey('tab')
             pyautogui.hotkey('enter')

minha planilha excel:
            ```A            B
       1-   Sobrenome     Relação
       2-    Nunes        Mãe/Pai```

Então gostaria de que quando o usuário deixasse o item "Relação" em BRANCO o sistema simplesmente ignorasse e pulasse pra próxima página.
OBS: Se eu colocar um ESPAÇO vazio na célula e colocar o código == ' ':
ele funciona. Porém com célula em branco e o código == '':
este não funciona de jeito nenhum.
Ja tentei:
== None:
== NaN:
== ['']:
== [('')]:
== "":
== (''):
== is None:

A: Tente usar pd.isnull(), esse método verifica se a series ou dataframe está vazio. Retorna True caso esteja e False caso contrário.
Observe um exemplo:
import pandas as pd

data = {'col_1': [3, 2, 1, 0], 'col_2': ['a', 'b', 'c', pd.NA]}
df = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(data)

if pd.isnull(df['col_2'][3]): # Verifica se pd.isnull() retornou True
    print('Está vazio.')
else:
    print('Está preenchido.')

O retorno desse exemplo será um print descrevendo o status do objeto passado para o método pd.isnull().

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Sandar Suðursins is part of a 4620 ha forestry project in a sand and lava desert, we are sharing our permaculture knowledge to give tools to others to heal this land. We also hope that the other groups helping this forest use our facilities as we welcome them without fees and hope they get inspired. Our focus is on creating fertility in the area, we have access to woodchips, compost, transport pallets and more organic materials in massive amounts. We can pick up miscellaneous building wood and other materials that are thrown out in the nearby towns. What we need is people who can share their knowledge on site for everyone to take action on them."
In the summer of 2019 the focus will be on building raised pallet beds which break down over time in nature. By selecting plants for them they are part of creating micro climates with plants that grab the small fertile areas and improve them.
We will make charcoal in barrels from wooden materials that the recycling/disposal companies do not have good solutions for.
Improving and adding art to the camp site is also important, we work with the theme of Huldufólk or Hidden people. These are mythical beings that live in rocks in Iceland, they are unseen by most but those who have been allowed to see inside their buildings say that they are very color and cheerful. We want to be invisible from the roads but once you enter it is color and cheerful.


Among the most common issues among audio files are the absence of metadata information, this kind of an artist, title, and various other song-related details. Thanks to beaTunes, these types of problems can be swiftly corrected, by first inspecting the items using the variety of analysis methods obtainable and them fixing the detected issues. It offers you a wide array associated with possibilities when it will come to file inspection in addition to playlist creation, especially useful if you have to handle large libraries in addition to a high number of artists. Also, the user-friendly interface could be easily controlled actually by beginners, while continue to offering powerful features to be able to enthusiasts as well.
Extra New Folder to framework menu.
Added ability to import multiple playlists at once.
Fixed premature playback ending following seek.
Added (limited) capability to import and foreign trade Serato crates.
Improved volume level adjustment latency.
Updated Acquire Info detection algorithms.
Fixed playlist selection on tree drop.
Shifted to CASampledSP 0. 9. 14.
Moved to MFSampledSP 0. 9. 9.


text:
Oyster Yachts
Bringing British yachting to the global market
Proudly built in Britain but found in every corner of the world, Oyster Yachts remains at the pinnacle of the yachting industry. And, with a new captain at the helm, it is just getting started.
The beloved brand's recent resurgence has been spearheaded by successful British entrepreneur Richard Hadida, who made his fortune at leading gaming software business Evolution Gaming before buying Oyster Yachts out of administration earlier this year. While gaming and boating may not seem natural bedfellows, Richard's lifelong passion for yachting and his love for the brand (he has shared Oyster 885-01 'Lush' with F1 supremo Eddie Jordan for years) were what drove his investment.
Upon taking the helm, Richard surrounded himself with a range of expertise at board level, from long-time friend Eddie Jordan to media expert Ashley Highfield and ex-banker Ivan Ritossa. Rob Humphreys, recognised as one of the world's leading yacht designers and responsible for designing over 20 Oyster models, also brings unparalleled experience to the board. This blend of industry and external experience ensures Oyster's proud heritage and legacy are respected and protected while propelling the brand into the future. Its commitment to innovation is illustrated by Oyster's recent tie-up with Lloyd's Register, a world-leading expert in maritime performance and safety.
More than a yacht, owning an Oyster truly means embracing a lifestyle of adventure
Oyster's focus on exceptional engineering and innovation can be seen in the recent decision to add in-house moulding capability at their facility in Norwich. The highest levels of care and attention are given to each yacht in-build, with its committed craftsmen recognising the achievement each Oyster represents. These vessels are often the culmination of a life's work, not only for the design and build teams but for the owners themselves.
Designed by sailors for sailors, Oyster's yachts are built on the foundation of over 20 million blue-water sailing miles and 75 circumnavigations. The company has 45 years' experience building over 1,000 yachts, with each vessel tailor-made for the needs of its owner and representing the perfect blend of blue-water cruising and high-performance sailing. Whether sailing with a support crew or on their own, Oyster owners often comment on a connection with the ocean, which can only be felt on a sailboat at full mast, cutting through the waves towards the horizon.
Upon taking the helm, Richard surrounded himself with a range of expertise at board level, from long-time friend Eddie Jordan to media expert Ashley Highfield and ex-banker Ivan Ritossa
Although the technical performance of each vessel is exceptional, owning an Oyster means much more than simply having a yacht. The company's world-famous 'Oyster Rally' brings together the Oyster family in an extraordinary round-the-world adventure, with the current iteration seeing 29 yachts traverse the globe's oceans as part of a four-stage, 27,000-mile circumnavigation ending in April 2019. Bringing together an exclusive club of Oyster owners, the epic 2021 World Rally event will begin for the first time in the Mediterranean, setting sail from Oyster's base in Palma before visiting exotic locations including Tahiti, Vanuatu, Ascension Island and Antigua over the course of an incredible three-year journey. More than a yacht, owning an Oyster truly means embracing a lifestyle of adventure.
Oyster Yachts Ltd Saxon Wharf, Lower York St, Northam, Southampton, SO14 5QF +44 (0)23 8083 1000


text:
Mac game maker diversifies into music
Macworld	 Feb 14, 2001 4:00 pm PST
Monkey Byte Development LLC is a diverse group, and that diversity is continuing. The company develops games and software, publishers other company's products, and publishes their own games too. Now the company has announced plans to expand to publishing and selling music CDs from independent bands.
The company's recent game efforts include Kawasaki Jet Ski Watercraft, which has been published commercially by Encore Software; and Monster Hunter, an arcade-style maze game that Monkey Byte publishes itself. The company's portfolio also includes Galactic Patrol and a variety of games created by independent developers who have struck publishing and distribution deals through Monkey Byte.
It appears that Monkey Byte's foray into the music business will be handled similarly to its software enterprise. Monkey Byte Vice President Yon Hardisty says the company is making non-exclusive agreements with bands, enabling them to find other avenues to release their music through as well.
"As with our game publishing, we will be working to promote and expand the audience of all our partners," said Hardisty. "We see expanding into independent music as a natural progression by working together we bring exposure and momentum to extremely talented individuals who can't or won't play by corporate rules."
Monkey Byte has yet to announce the names of artists whose work they'll be carrying. Hardisty explained that as Monkey Byte's portfolio of games is diverse, its music library would be as well.


Kathleen Dennis O'Hara, 91, went to be with her Lord and was reunited with her husband, parents and many precious friends Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2019.
To her family, she was the epitome of strength and grace under the most pressing of circumstances. In 1948 at age 21, only a year after her marriage, she contracted polio. Although we, her three children, never saw her walk, we never thought of her as handicapped either. She cooked, cleaned house, hung out clothes, raked leaves and even moved furniture. To us, the wheelchair was just how she got things done.
What was most remarkable about her was she was joyous. She was an upbeat, happy person who loved to laugh, one who had a wonderful sense of humor. Our house was the neighborhood gathering place when we were young because she greeted everyone with a smile that said, "you are welcome here." She attracted friends in great numbers. Not surprisingly, people who were hurt and broken in spirit were especially drawn to her because she accepted them as they were and tried to meet their needs by listening to them, encouraging them, and, when needed, reminding them that God was able to address all wounds, no matter how devastating.
She was a wonderful wife. Our parents' marriage was a testimony to commitment, even under the most trying circumstances. She was also a selfless mother who always put her children first. She learned to sew so that even with scarce financial resources her daughters would always be well dressed. She collected dimes and those dimes underwrote our college education.
At age 50-something she took a full-time job, proving once again the wheelchair was not an insurmountable barrier. She taught us the value of hard work, gentleness, kindness and compassion and that laughter is often the best medicine. She showered her grandchildren with that same selfless love. To her grandchildren, she was Nanny, and they returned her love with their whole hearts.
We who are left behind are simply heartbroken by our loss, comforted only by the fact she is most assuredly with God our Father. We, her survivors, are her three children, Kathy, Mickey and Kelly; daughter-in-law, Cindy, who was really the daughter of her heart; and four grandchildren, in order of birth, A.J. Bulman and Garrett and Shae and Reilly O'Hara.
As a family, we thank the many people who loved and supported her during the last few years of her life when her infirmities were most painful. There are too many wonderful friends to list in entirety, but we especially want to acknowledge Bill Bunch and Shiquae "Sugar" Morse, who never stopped working to make her life better during her time of great need.
The Bible tells us that "he who is first shall be last and he who is last shall be first" and this statement is a testament to our mother, our grandmother. In this life, she never obtained fame nor fortune, but everyone who knew her was fully aware that she was one of the most remarkable people to ever live.
The family will receive visitors from 4 to 6 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16, at Smith & Williams Funeral Home/Kempsville, 4889 Princess Anne Road. Services will be held at 3 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 17, at the funeral home. Burial will be held Tuesday, Feb. 19, in Jerusalem Methodist Church Cemetery, Parsonsburg, Maryland.


text:
Nassau Daily Voice serves Glen Cove, Hempstead, Long Beach, North Hempstead & Oyster Bay
serves Babylon, Brookhaven, Huntington, Islip, North Fork, Riverhead, Smithtown & The Hamptons
Breaking News: Suspect Nabbed After Scamming NassauWoman Out Of $10K, Police Say
Wind Advisory: Gusts Up To 50 MPH Could Blow Down Limbs, Trees, Power Lines, Causing Outages
A radar image of the Nor'easter just before 4 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 16. Photo Credit: National Weather Service
The main threat from the season's first Nor'easter will be gusty, strong winds that could cause power outages.
A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire region by the National Weather Service. It will be in effect from 6 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 16 through 6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 17.
The storm, which developed off the Delmarva Peninsula, intensified as it moved north, and arrived in the area in the middle of the afternoon on Wednesday.
But the winds will strengthen after the rainfall ends overnight.
Winds out of the southeast between 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph along the coast on Wednesday evening will expand across the entire area late Wednesday night into Thursday.
The strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines, causing outages.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected with locally heavier amounts.
Widespread flooding is not expected, but isolated minor flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas is possible.
Coastal Flood Advisories and Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for the high-tide cycle from late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning, Oct. 17.
Rain will end before dawn with a chance of showers through the morning on Thursday. The strong winds will continue until nightfall. Wind will be out of the west at around 22 miles per hour, with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph.
The afternoon will be partly sunny with a high temperature near 60 degrees.
Three Long-Range Forecasts Call For Stormy Winter: Here's When First Snowfall Is Most Likely
Man Wanted For Stealing From Long Island Store
Prominent Nassau County Paving Company Owner Admits To Bribin...
Nassau Store Among Six New JCPenney Store Closures Scheduled
Nassau Daily Voice!
Serves Glen Cove, Hempstead, Long Beach, North Hempstead & Oyster Bay


MELBOURNE/BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Vale SA's catastrophic dam failure in Brazil may knock it off its perch as the biggest iron ore exporter as the resulting rally in high-grade ore prices steers buyers towards rivals offering cheaper ore, industry sources said on Wednesday.
The world's largest iron ore miner is facing public ire and tougher regulation after the collapse of its tailings dam in the Brazilian region of Brumadinho killed at least 84 in one of the country's worst ever industrial disasters. Hundreds are still missing and presumed dead.
Vale on Tuesday said it would take up to 10 percent of its output offline as it decommissions a total of 19 dams over three years, a move that would cut up to 40 million tonnes of iron ore production a year.
That could dethrone Vale as the No.1 supplier of sea-borne iron ore, and benefit Australian rivals such as Rio Tinto , BHP Group and Fortescue Metals Group , said Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank.
"Rio is about 23 to 24 percent of the seaborne market, and Vale is 24 percent. If we see that (Vale's shipments) come down further I think Rio could become the biggest player," Dhar said.
Weakened margins at steel mills in China have also worked against the high-grade ore supplier, with Chinese operators slashing input costs by taking lower-quality, cheaper ores in recent months.
That trend has benefited lower-grade producer Fortescue since late 2018, and going forward may also boost sales for other Australian miners.
"What will likely happen, is that if we see Vale high grade material go (from the market), you'll see an increased demand for mid-grades. That will favour more of BHP's and Rio's material," Dhar said.
Steelmakers and traders in China were also preparing for a drop in iron ore supplies from Vale in the post-Chinese New Year restocking period. One customer with a long-term contract in China's top steel-making province Hebei, though, said he had not been notified by the Brazilian miner of any change to supply.
"Forty million tonnes of output reduction is quite a big amount ... We expect Vale will prioritize supply to steel mills who signed long-term contracts with them, which means the amount Vale will put into the spot market will be less," said a Qingdao-based iron ore trader.
"Prices have soared ... but we don't know how long for. If steel mills do not accept such high prices, they would turn to cheaper alternatives from Australia," he said.
Chinese iron ore futures rose to their highest level in nearly 17 months on Wednesday.
Vale has said the impact will be offset by increased production elsewhere, but analysts deem any speedy ramp up unlikely.
"When your social license to operate is under threat, to start new operations or ramp up production will come under scrutiny," said Matthew Keane, an analyst at broker Argonaut in Perth.
Shares in Vale have fallen 23 percent since Friday, while shares in Rio have gained 8.4 percent, BHP 4.7 percent and Fortescue 12.9 percent.


text:
US spy agencies face 'shocking' lack of diversity
Former CIA officers say diverse workforce needed to confront complex threats
ByDevin Dwyer and Cindy Smith
The floor of the main lobby of the Central Intelligence Agency in Langley, Va., Jan. 21, 2017.
Andrew Harnik/AP
This report is part of "Turning Point," a groundbreaking series by ABC News examining the racial reckoning sweeping the United States and exploring whether it can lead to lasting reconciliation.
As the Trump administration rolls back initiatives meant to bolster diversity and inclusion across the federal government, U.S. spy agencies are working to expand minority representation in their ranks and counter what some experts see as a looming threat to national security.
For years, the intelligence community -- made up of 17 federal agencies, including the CIA -- has had one of the least diverse workforces in government, despite the fact that its mission is to analyze intelligence in dozens of languages and understand the nuances of diverse cultures in order to identify complex threats.
MORE: Inside the CIA, secretive officers showcase artworks -- and themselves
Just 26.5% of members of the intelligence agencies in 2019 were racial and ethnic minorities, up slightly from 26.2% in 2018, according to a new report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence obtained by ABC News.
The figures are below the level of representation across the federal government -- 37.1% -- and the civilian labor force -- 37.4% -- overall.
Douglas London, a 34-year CIA veteran who was stationed around the world, says systemic racism existed in the Agency during his tenure.
"It's a practical equation. It's not even about right or wrong. It's about what they need as a foreign intelligence service," said Douglas London, a 34-year CIA veteran who was stationed around the world. "Our adversaries and enemies are not going to be privileged, white suburbanites walking around the streets in Southern California."
"A large body of our spies are not really up to the challenge of dealing with different people and relating to them in an effective way," added London.
The disparity has been more pronounced at the top. At the Central Intelligence Agency, the nation's premier spy organization, just 10.8% of its leaders were people of color in 2015, according to a declassified report. The agency declined to provide ABC News with the latest figures.
"What was shocking to me was just the lack of representation of diversity in its senior ranks especially, but across the board in the (intelligence community)," said Rep. Terri Sewell of Alabama, an eight-year member of the House Intelligence Committee.
"There's a lot of lip service that goes on with talking about diversity and not enough action, intentional action," Sewell told ABC News, "especially when you think about the fact that there are some (minority recruits) that come in and get diverted to administration roles and not into mission critical."
Current and former intelligence agency leaders and officers, including members of both political parties, say the marginal improvement in diverse hiring and promotion in recent years is insufficient.
Retired CIA officer Darrell Blocker spent decades gathering intelligence overseas and helping recruit future American spies.
"I would never be satisfied with the numbers," said Darrell Blocker, a retired CIA officer who is African American and spent decades gathering intelligence overseas and helping recruit future American spies in the U.S. "Diversity and inclusion training is extremely important."
In cracking down on diversity initiatives, the White House denies there is deep-seated racial bias and white privilege and has outright banned race-related trainings at federal agencies, including CIA.
"I ended it because it's racist. I ended it because a lot of people were complaining that they were asked to do things that were absolutely insane," President Donald Trump explained of his decision during the first presidential debate last month.
The CIA declined to say what steps, if any, it took in light of the president's order ending the trainings, but top agency officials say initiatives aimed at increasing diversity in the workforce are active and remain a top priority.
MORE: White House directs federal agencies to halt some race-related trainings
"Fostering diversity and inclusion is a key requirement for promotion into leadership positions, and we specifically train our officers how to create and maintain an inclusive workplace," said Sonya Holt, deputy associate director of CIA for talent for diversity and inclusion.
"We routinely facilitate discussions with our global workforce to talk about the complexities of diversity," Holt said.
Rep.Terri Sewell, D-Ala., a member of the House Intelligence Committee, has seen marginal improvement in diverse hiring and promotion at CIA in recent years but says it's not enough.
This summer, the CIA launched its first-ever national streaming video ad targeting young, minority potential recruits. The agency also continues to foster ties with Historically Black Colleges and Universities for job recruitment initiatives.
"We created strong partnerships with academic institutions with diverse populations to ensure students have continued access to CIA to learn about the Agency careers available to them," said CIA chief of talent acquisition Sheronda Dorsey in a statement to ABC.
But after years of similar efforts, some wonder whether this latest push will be any more effective at attracting and retaining more diverse Americans as spies and analysts.
Former CIA officials say one of the biggest barriers is the stigma from the agency's controversial history of alleged human experimentation, torture and assassinations.
"It's a double-edged sword. The mystique is good. It helps us to have people think that we can do these things, but it also hurts us when they think we're doing things that we're not," said Blocker of his efforts to help recruit minority hires late in his tenure.
Gina Haspel, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, testifies during the Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on "Worldwide Threats," Jan. 29, 2018.
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
"You can get folks in the door, but it's retaining them and promoting them," said Sewell, who serves on the House Intelligence Committee.
"You will see this committee being engaged in setting benchmarks and goals and asking for more accountability by (having them give) us the numbers of ethic minorities broken down by ethnicity," she said. "But those are all classified. Therein lies the problem."
MORE: 'Singer Tailor Soldier Spy': A CIA officer's life as the frontman of one of Uganda's top bands
Blocker said he's optimistic the intelligence community is capable of evolving and that it's imperative that they do because of the challenges of rapidly changing and complex threats.
"When I walked in the door in 1990, there were zero examples of a division chief. When I walked out the door: Asians, Latina, Latinex, Black, like myself, division chief," Blocker said.
"I saw a lot of progress, but I don't know if it's sustainable progress," he added. "The agency needs to understand that if you're going to invest in some minority communities, you have to be there all the time."