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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Ian hitting Caymans & W. Cuba then into Gulf of Mexico
By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax
September 26, 2022 at 7:47 am EDT
Jacksonville, Fl. — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app
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WATCH "Preparing for the Storm"
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READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"
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***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone ("cone of uncertainty") is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
** FIRST ALERT! ** - Anyone living in - or traveling to - the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Yucatan Peninsula &/or the U.S. Gulf Coast should stay up to date on the latest forecast as Ian moves over the Caribbean... then over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. A reminder to NOT focus too much on the exact landfall point or intensity forecast. **
One should be careful about determining the threat to life & property based on the category of the storm & whether or not Ian is weakening. Dangerous impacts are imminent for a good part of Fl. It's possible that the storm surge will be a category or so higher than what one might expect.
LOCAL - NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA - POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM IAN *BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH*:
* The exact timing & intensity of any & all Ian impacts for NE Fl./SE Ga. will be dependent on the exact location of Ian in reference to Jacksonville & will, of course, be subject to change.
* A high rip current risk will continue through the week & become a 'very high' risk Wed. through at least Fri.
* Few if any direct impacts from Ian through at least Tue.... with the first rainfall - still not necessarily directly a result of Ian (enhanced by onshore flow) - arriving Wed. spreading from south to north.
* Potential rainfall: 3-6″... 8″+ for some areas. Tropical moisture surging north combined with onshore winds (out of the east) ahead of Ian should begin to bring some showers, isolated t'storms from south to north through the day Wed. This will start to saturate the already wet ground across the area leading to flooding issues Thu./Fri. - in particular - as heavy Ian rain bands move across the area & potentially "train" across some areas. The saturated soil may also lead to trees being more easily uprooted by winds that otherwise may not be much of a problem. The local area has dried out some over the past 7-10 days but the very wet Aug./early Sept. has still left soils essentially saturated... + we're coming off a week of higher than avg. tides partially due to the new moon cycle & astronomically higher than avg. tides, so there's a good deal of water "in the system" that will be added to in the coming days. The winds out of the east will also help force more water into inlets, the intracoastal, streams & rivers. Flooding along the St. Johns River is likely as well. We'll have to keep a close eye on downtown Jacksonville as - given the current forecast & approach of Ian - strong southerly flow Thu. night through Fri. night may "pile up" water & overflow into parts of downtown. This situation is *not* exactly the same as Irma in 2017 as Irma was more inland upon approach to NE Fl. (vs. Ian being more west).... but there are similarities.
* Seas & surf will increase through the week. Double digit breakers at local beaches will be possible by late week.
* Gusty winds arrive by Thu./Fri. *At the moment* tropical storm force (39+ mph) sustained winds will be possible with hurricane force (74+ mph) wind gusts possible. Strongest winds will occur west of Highway 301 as well as at the beaches & along waterways. Keep in mind that bridges are usually closed when sustained winds reach 40 mph but local officials may make "the call" at anytime depending on local conditions & forecasts.
* Isolated waterspouts & tornadoes can be expected Wed.-Fri.
* Power outages should be expected.
* The next few days will be your chance to get organized, check storm kits, prepare your yard & home for a storm, check & test (understand!) generators & top off gas tanks. This course of action would be especially advisable along the west coast of Fl. & the Panhandle.
Atlantic Basin:
Tropical wave - '98-L' that moved off of Africa last week is moving over the Southern Caribbean & Central Caribbean & was upgraded to tropical depression #9 Friday .... to tropical storm "Ian" Fri. evening... then to a hurricane early Mon. This is a classic wave in that it formed from a complex of intense storms over Africa... encountered hostile conditions (shear & dry air) for days before finding more favorable conditions. The storm's center has been aligning as Ian organizes & t'storms burst/pulse allowing Ian to reach hurricane intensity early Mon. As the storm gains some latitude & turns more north, ingredients are in place for the development of a significant tropical cyclone over the Northwest Caribbean & SE Gulf... with pretty rapid intensification a distinct possibility.
The global forecast models are coming into better agreement with the GFS & Europeans models essentially trending toward one another, & it's a "meeting in the middle" that is the most likely ultimate outcome. In some model runs, the Euro is now even a little west of the GFS(!). Strange how many "forecasters & even meteorologists simply jumped on the Euro train - inexplicable actually. It's very much worth mentioning that the GFS *has been* leading the charge so far on accuracy, especially as it relates to location & the longer westward movement the past several days & the forecast more northward path through the Eastern Gulf. So while there's agreement on development of a major hurricane & model solutions have narrowed, there's still spread on speed of forward movement & exact location with the GFS slower, generally more north & the European a little faster & more east but still trending west. The GFS remains steadfast on a Panhandle/Big Bend hit while the Euro is pointing to the Fl. west coast though is more parallel very near the coast vs. past days. Confidence is increasing that the west coast of Florida & eastern parts of the Panhandle will be hit by a strong, possibly major (Cat. 3+) hurricane during the upcoming mid to late week. Friction from nearby land & increasing shear & dry air will bring Ian down from its peak intensity by late in the week while paralleling or moving right along the Fl. west coast once north of Tampa.
One should be careful about determining the threat to life & property based on the category of the storm & whether or not Ian is weakening. Dangerous impacts are imminent for a good part of Fl. It's possible that the storm surge will be a category or so higher than what one might expect for parts of the Fl. west coast.
Both the GFS & European models are initializing well which is a positive... the GFS has been better on the more west & south track the last 3 days & currently. The GFS cannot & should not be ignored despite it's extreme west (Louisiana which is going to be too far west) solution during the middle of last week as the GFS was the model of choice on Fiona last week. Once to Fl., the European is still more south but has been trending north, even west. More time over the Northeast Gulf - a more northward motion upon approach to Fl. - could & should result in some weakening before landfall due to increasing shear & some drier continental air possibly becoming involved with Ian's circulation. In any case... a significant hit appears likely on the Fl. west coast &/or Eastern Panhandle with significants impacts for much of Florida at one time or another. Storm surge into Tampa Bay is expected to be very significant based on the current forecast. The UKMET model has not been very good this season so far but for what it's worth, the model is now a little south of the European solution on the Fl. landfall & timing - on the west/SW coast of Fl. - but weaker & - more than likely - much too weak... then takes Ian to the east coast of Fl. before turning northward near or just east of Jacksonville.
So the ingredients are in place for the development of a major hurricane over the Caribbean &/or SE Gulf with very warm water including high oceanic heat content (warm far below the surface of the ocean)... sufficient mid & upper level moisture... mostly low shear that will eventually be in concert with the storm's movement (so less detrimental). Shear does increase by mid to late next week but may be offset some by upper level ventilation (nearby trough) & the fact that Ian should be well organized by then. In the end... the storm's intensity will come down to how quickly Ian develops an inner core... any land interaction... & how long the tropical cyclone stays over the Gulf vs. moving into Fl. We will have to watch for the possibility of pretty fast intensification near Cuba &/or over the Southeast Gulf where the environment looks especially favorable. It looks like the fairly steady/swift movement - of a well developed tropical cyclone - north across the west edge of Cuba will be brief & little more than a speed bump. The drier mid & upper level air will increase late this week closer to Fl. & over the Northeast Gulf along with the increase in shear - this combination will hopefully - & should - drop Ian's intensity from its peak over the Gulf, especially if the eye gets farther north vs. an earlier, more east hit on the Fl. west coast. But do not let one's guard down!
Steering currents to consider:
(1) the GFS "won" the forecast battle on Fiona hands down over the European model while the UKMET was consistently out to lunch. Simply based on the "you're only as good as your last forecast", it's very hard to ignore the GFS. Not to mention the model's stability from one run to the next has greatly improved over the last few days. The same can be said for the European when it comes to its recent run to run consistency farther to the east... though it has trended west & north pretty steadily since Fri.
(2) there should be - & apparently has been some "extra" ridging underneath - to the south of - once intense hurricane Fiona which is now long gone after having moved into Eastern Canada & the far NW Atlantic. This alone has likely helped the more westward track for the last few days. But it's unclear how much ridging will manage to build behind only recently departing Fiona as an upper level trough sweeps across the Eastern U.S. through the early part of the week. The positioning of this trough + its exit to the east will help dictate the timing & angle of the turn north out of the Caribbean & Gulf. As the upper trough over the Eastern U.S. departs & lifts out to the northeast, steering currents near Ian will weaken causing the hurricane to slow.... & even possibly meander some near or over the Southeast U.S. This part - Fri. into the weekend - of the forecast remains in flux.
(3) a tropical storm/typhoon has formed over the W. Pacific & will move due west to Asia. Perhaps of more importance is a tropical cyclone a few days ago that turned rather sharply to the northeast & moved near & east of Japan & has since become a post-tropical low. A new tropical cyclone taking shape east of Japan will follow a similar path turning sharply northeast to the east of Japan. A teleconnection implies the more west movement of Ian will be somewhat short lived followed by the sharper turn north/northeast. (W. Pacific track map at the bottom). The trough off the east coast of China essentially mirrors the trough near/off the east coast of the U.S. with strong low pressure to the east (Fiona over the Atlantic) followed by another trough to the east.
Movement summary:
Ian will at least stay far to the south of recently hard hit Puerto Rico & Dominican Republic. The time table - *for right now* is the NW Caribbean into Mon... well west of Jamaica... a quick crossing of the Cayman Islands & Western Cuba Mon. night-Tue... then the SE Gulf of Mexico mid week followed by a hit on Florida's west coast or the Eastern Panhandle anywhere from late Wed. to late Thu./early Fri. depending on whether or not Ian is moving more north (later landfall) vs. more east (earlier landfall)- timing is subject to change, of course! The path & strength of Ian remains at least somewhat questionable. There will be changes, stay up to date!
Spaghetti plots includes ensembles of the models:
If Ian's forecast track continues to trend west, the rainfall forecast should decrease - at least some:
Grand Cayman radar imagery:
Integrated Microwave Imager, CIMSS:
Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the Caribbean - lots of warm water well below the surface of the ocean:
Strong shear over the far Eastern Caribbean weakens a great deal more to the north & west:
Radar imagery from S. Fl. Water Management District:
The last NHC advisories on Fiona, Hermine & Gaston have been issued.
Elsewhere....
A tropical wave is moving from the Eastern to Central Atlantic. Some development is possible as the wave turns more north.... another wave is coming off the coast of Africa at a lower latitude & might have some long term potential.
Water vapor loop shows plenty of mid & upper level moisture (white & green areas) across a good part of the Atlantic Basin:
September origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes "wanna' be" waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we've had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... "Julia" is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in '18... Dorian in '19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in '20 & Ida in '21]). In fact, this year's list of names is rather infamous with "Charley", "Frances", "Jeanne" & "Ivan" retired from the '04 list (all hit Fl.) & "Matthew" was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:
The East Pacific:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
Typhoon "Noru" rolled across the Northern Philippines & is now headed to Vietnam Tue./Wed.:
"Kulap":
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Friends and Families of Disappeared Mexican Students Get Message Out in U.S. Tour
Brooke Binkowski
Family members of missing Ayotzinapa students take part in the "Caravana 43." (Brooke Binkowski/KQED)
A group of classmates and family members of 43 students who have been missing since they were taken at gunpoint last September in southern Mexico is traveling across the United States to get its message out to people here.
The "Caravana 43" hopes to raise awareness and get more press coverage in the United States as well as Mexico. It also wants to see an end to the Merida Initiative, a partnership between the U.S. and Mexico that was supposed to help Mexico fight drug crime. Instead, it has equipped and trained the country's police and military to be even more deadly toward its own citizens, the group says. There are three contingents, each covering a different part of the United States.
Angel Neri de la Cruz Ayala, 19, is a second-year student at the Escuela Rural Normal "Raul Isidro Burgos" de Ayotzinapa.
"I'm here to invite the people of the United States to help us to pressure the Mexican government so they don't forget about our missing classmates," said de la Cruz.
A normal school, whose students are known as normalistas, is one of 16 teacher-training schools that were built by the Mexican government nearly a century ago in areas stricken by persistent poverty and racism.
De la Cruz was part of student demonstrations the night of last Sept. 26, when police opened fire on their buses, killing three of their classmates, as well as a bus driver, a pregnant woman riding in a nearby taxi and a young soccer player riding nearby.
Forty-three of his classmates were detained and forced into vans at gunpoint, and have been missing since. Many believe they are dead, and this has been the official position of the Mexican government since late January. But members of the Caravana 43 believe the missing 43 are still alive. Ayotzinapa is now shorthand for police and state violence within Mexico.
De la Cruz said there is every reason to hope his missing classmates are alive, and no proof that they are dead.
Marco Amaral is part of the volunteer group helping the caravan while it's in San Diego. He said Mexico's police and government are killing people there with impunity, helped by money from the United States.
"Those are the people that are governing Mexico, right?" said Amaral. "And we're supporting those people. The regime that's in Mexico is backed by the United States, not just morally backed by the United States, but financially and politically backed by the United States."
Amaral said that he volunteered to help with the caravan in San Diego because -- as for many other Americans -- the case of Ayotzinapa touched a nerve.
"When Sept. 26 happened, it was really honestly felt -- not just for me but for millions and millions of other people -- it was the straw that broke the camel's back," Amaral said.
The three delegations from the Caravana 43 will travel through the United States until they converge in New York City in late April.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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THROUGH IMMERSIVITY,
WE BRING OUR CLIENTS' IMAGINATIONS TO LIFE.
Our bespoke Immersivity Dial was born out of an increasing need to explore our clients' full marketing journey at a deeper level, to re-establish the very reason for market outreach and re-connect with culture and human emotion in a fast-paced and largely digital world.
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Immersivity
At the very centre of our methodology, is Immersivity. This initial stage is critical to exploring everything there is to know about an organisation, its processes, behaviours, and most importantly, its target consumers. It is where objectives are determined, and advanced insight is discovered. With this, new ideas and growth can start to form from the very core.
The next stage of the journey and of our methodology is the Activation stage, which is split into two segments: Digital & Traditional. These activated deliverables can be purely one sided or a collective mix of both, depending on the target audience and objectives that have been outlined.
This is the stage where we measure results and create a statistical analysis of marketing outreach. Split into four key segments: Identity, Behavioural, Culture & Perception, we cover all types of crucial data to reflect the activation.
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The wife and I owned a 2009 XR all wheel drive.
The small SUV was like a rocket ship with the V6. Proved very reliable and comfortable for its size.
I remember Aztecs being given away as challenge awards in the early seasons of Survivor.


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Charm City Bird Watch
A Baltimore Sports Blog and Podcast
Series Preview: Orioles make first trip to St. Petersburg for weekend tilt with Rays
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - SEPTEMBER 30: Jonathan Schoop #6 of the Baltimore Orioles waits on deck to bat during the ninth inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 30, 2017 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Date: 05/25/2018Author: Jake McDonnell 0 Comments
ST. PETERSBURG — After going 3-5 over the first eight games of an 11-game road trip, Orioles General Manager Dan Duquette's apparent plan to "evaluate" following Memorial Day weekend remains a possibility. The Orioles (16-34) have struggled mighty on the road thus far in 2018, playing to a 6-21 record away from Camden Yards. The Rays got off to a rough 3-12 start, but ended the month of April with a 13-14 record and have basically played .500 baseball since, now 23-25 on the season. Like it always is in the American League East, the Rays will not go down without a fight against a struggling Baltimore ball-club.
So, Mr. Duquette, be ready to "evaluate" early next week if this weekend does not go well.
A look at the standings: Speaking of the AL East, the Rays come into the weekend 10 games behind the Red Sox (34-18), who lead the division by one game ahead of the Yankees (31-15). The Blue Jays (23-27) sit 11 games back, with the O's 18 games out of first. The Rays won their game on Thursday night 6-3 over Boston, but lost the series 1-2 at Tropicana Field.
New approach for Tampa: The Rays are trying a new approach to managing their pitching staff as of late, and that approach is called "bullpenning." Last weekend against the Los Angeles Angels, reliever Sergio Romo started the final two ballgames of a four game series, going 1.0 and 1.1 innings in his appearances. Ryan Yarbough (6.1 innings) took over in the third game, and the Rays used three different pitchers following Romo in the fourth game with none of them going more than 3.1 innings. This weekend, Rays relievers will start all three games versus the Orioles.
The "bullpenning" movement came to fruition due to more runs being scored in the first inning than any inning for American League teams. Another reason Tampa manager Kevin Cash is trying this with his squad is because a lot of starters, particularly veterans, struggle while pitching their third time through an order. If Cash uses a reliever to start the game, he pushes a "starter's" third time through the order back at least an inning. Using relief pitchers to start the game for an inning or two does no harm, as they are already accustomed to pitching a few times a week for a handful of innings total.
Last meeting/season series: This marks the third series played between the AL foes this season, and the first one at Tropicana Field. The season series is tied 3-3. From May 11-13, the Orioles took three of four from the Rays at Camden Yards. The O's outscored Tampa 35-18, including a 17-1 win on Sunday May 13'th. Kevin Gausman, David Hess, and Dylan Bundy each turned in a quality start, highlighted by Bundy's seven-inning, two-hit performance with seven strikeouts. Manny Machado hit three home runs for seven total RBI over the first two games of the series, and then the shortstop brought in two runs on doubles during Sunday's big win.
The Orioles went 3-6 at Tropicana Field in 2017.
Game times and pitching matchups:
Game 1: Friday, May 25, 7:10 pm – David Hess (1-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. Sergio Romo (1-0, 4.34 ERA) – MASN, 105.7 The Fan
Game 2: Saturday, May 26, 4:10 pm – Andrew Cashner (2-5, 4.72 ERA) vs. Ryne Stanek (0-0, 5.40 ERA) – MASN, 105.7 The Fan
Game 3: Sunday, May 27, 1:10 pm – Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.48 ERA) vs. Sergio Romo – MASN, 105.7 The Fan
Notes on the Orioles:
At this time last week, the Orioles expected to activate Darren O'Day (hyperextended elbow) off the disabled list during the Boston series, but since then O'Day wasn't feeling good enough to throw a scheduled Wednesday bullpen session. O'Day is reportedly waiting to see if the elbow feels any better by today (Friday), but he will likely receive cortisone shots.
In Thursday's 9-3 win over the White Sox, the Orioles batted around in both the first and second innings. It marked the first time since Jun. 30, 2009 against Boston that the Orioles sent more than nine batters to the plate twice in the same game. The O's won that game 11-10.
In 25.2 career innings against the Rays, Mychal Givens is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA. He's struck out six times as many hitters (30) than he's allowed runs (5).
Notes on the Rays:
In 6.2 career innings against the Orioles, Romo has a 4.05 ERA with one save.
The Rays play in spurts; they're a very streaky team. They're the only team in the majors with multiple 5-game winning streaks and five-game losing streaks this season. Last night's win over Boston snapped a three-game losing streak. The Rays had gone on a six-game winning streak before that losing streak began.
Tampa is 10-6 so far this season in series openers.
Image Credit: Birds Watcher
Andrew CashnerBaltimore OriolesBuck ShowalterDan DuquetteDarren O'DayDavid HessKevin GausmanManny MachadoMLBMychal GivensRyne StanekSerio RomoTampa Bay Rays
Published by Jake McDonnell
Producer at 105.7 The Fan - Baltimore. Bloomsburg University Class of 2018.	View all posts by Jake McDonnell
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Why Romanticizing Past Massachusetts Relationships Will Ruin Future Ones
On behalf of Law Offices of Renee Lazar posted in Divorce on Monday, August 12, 2019.
Whether you're fantasy-prone or a pragmatic realist, the temptation to romanticize the past (including your former flame) can be emotionally gratifying.
According to a recent report about nostalgia and the brain, nostalgia is "not a true recreation of the past, but rather a combination of many different memories, all integrated together... all negative emotions filtered out."
Romanticizing a past relationship (remembering only the happy stuff from "the good old days") feels safe. And it's easy to go there if our present reality feels difficult or we're struggling in our current relationship according to relationship experts.
Romanticizing the past can help you dodge responsibility for difficult things happening in the present.
It's easier to escape the issues of your current relationship or situation if you can blame the problems on them and say, 'This wasn't how it was for me before.'
Why you can't trust your perception of the past
But this romanticization isn't based in reality, right? Can't we just tell ourselves to face the truth and be done with the whole thing?
According to therapists, the truth always takes a back seat to our own biases, however inaccurate they may be.
When you're looking at your satisfaction with a current relationship, perception ends up being more important than the actual reality. You might be more likely to remember the good stuff, when in fact focusing more on the negative might be more healthy in terms of your self-esteem.
Because our memories of this past relationship are filtered, it's easy to forget all the reasons that old love wasn't right for us. The problems, the fights and the pet peeves are smoothed over and we're left trying to answer the question: "Why did I leave that relationship?" with an unrealistic set of data.
The real kicker? Most couples in this situation are comparing their long-term relationship with one that never launched past the honeymoon stage of six to 18 months.
It hurts your relationship potential
And though it's natural and even healthy to compare your relationships to each other, it's considerably unhelpful to stay stuck in the past.
When people get stuck in romanticizing a past relationship, they're usually not really optimizing their current relationship. Or, if they're not in one, they're not really trying to look for something healthy and functional.
When you idealize someone from the past, it's easy to be critical of any new person that comes into the picture.
It may not show up immediately, but over time it does... and eventually people get tired of being criticized or never measuring up and it may cause another relationship to end.
How can I stop doing this?
Nostalgia and fantasy can have some strong jaws, especially if they're being used by your brain to protect you from painful memories or help you relax and tune out stress.
And, though your friends may try and solve the issue by trash-talking your ex and advising you to "just get over it," these tactics may just bury the problem.
It's important that people understand that they're holding onto something for a reason... When something has not been fully processed, we often have a hard time letting it go.
According to these experts, here are a few ways to ground yourself back into the present:
1. Be curious with yourself
If you catch yourself idealizing a past relationship, try and zoom out a little. Asking yourself a few simple questions may help ground you back in the present.
What am I soothing by doing this?
Am I trying to avoid a painful experience?
How is this helping me? What purpose is this fantasy serving in my life?
Can I see any ways in which this holds me back?
What do I hope to gain by holding onto this person?
What would it be like to let them go?
2. Be kind to yourself
Remove shame from the process.
Be really gentle and non-judgemental of yourself. If you can catch yourself while you're doing this, stop and say: 'Oh, look at me fantasizing. I wonder what I'm trying to avoid right now.'
3. Confide in the right people
Find people who are willing to extend empathy, not just a silver lining.
It is never going to serve anybody well to say, 'Just let it go.' They would have if they could. It's a signal that something needs to happen. And that's what a lot of well-intended people would say to do. But that just shames them... and that just compounds the problem.
Should you be in the midst of a divorce or contemplating divorce, contact the Law Offices of Renee Lazar at 978-844-4095 to schedule a FREE one hour no obligation consultation.
Tags: communication, divorce, psychological issues, relationships
Related Posts: What a Massachusetts Divorce Does to Women's Heart Health, Are You Feeling Lonely in Your Massachusetts Marriage?, How Micro-Cheating Could Be Ruining Your Massachusetts Marriage, How to Keep the House During a Massachusetts Divorce
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I help coach clients that live with depression. They share their pain and often how real their sadness seems. I've seen how they struggle to keep going and persist even when every moment is difficult. I realize that it is easy to tell them to have hope but harder for a depressed person to actually believe life will improve.
I experienced a recent day where I felt very down. In that moment, my mind shared only negativity, fear and sorrow. I remembered the countless times I counseled others on what to do. "Please remember that those feelings will not always be exactly as they are. If you make it through the darkest moments, tomorrow may bring light".
I understood how in that instant everything seems horrible. It takes so much courage to go to sleep and pray that tomorrow may be just a little bit better. In my life, it did get better the next morning. This day helps me to remember just how hard some of us fight to survive depression. I don't care what anyone has told you about your feelings. They are real and often rough to face.
We can come together and be open that some battles are hard to win. You are supported, loved and never alone. Please know you are taking a positive step to read this and learn about making changes. It means so much that you come to this website. I always remember my mental illness is there and each day is one step at a time. I pray for us to allow the bright light to shine deep upon our souls.


Soon after the mass shooting in Las Vegas, conspiracy theories began circulating online that spread much faster than legitimate news reports. The business of fake news appears to be booming.
At least 59 people were killed and over 500 injured during the Mandalay Bay shooting in Las Vegas, Nevada. The gunman, Stephen Paddock, killed himself. According to officials, his motive is still unclear. Around the same time the news of killing spree broke, rumors and false stories began gaining traction online. These stories were clicked four times more often than fact-based reports by reputable media outlets. But why? Who actually benefits from this deluge of fake news and why does it spread so quickly?
Right-wing groups have speculated whether Paddock was an Islamist or a Trump-hating liberal. The website silenceisconsent.com openly debated whether he belonged to an anti-fascist organization.
Police say that Paddock was a lone gunman. Many social media conspiracy theories insist that at least two other shooters were involved in the mass killing. To prove their theory, groups like "The People's Voice" embed blurry user videos in their articles. It seems that the ambiguity and credibility of the material only play a secondary role.
In the case of the Las Vegas shooting, Silicon Valley giants Google, Facebook and Twitter have been accused of not putting enough effort into containing the flood of reports - and worse than that, facilitating their proliferation. People who were trying to find information on Google about the shooting were directed to the website 4chan, which falsely claimed that the attacker was Geary Danley, the ex-husband of Paddock's girlfriend. 4chan is known for spreading false information and conspiracy theories after mass shootings or terrorist attacks.
The rumor mills of right-wing sites like The Gateway Pundit were buzzing. Professional purveyors of fake news manipulated the algorithms set by Google, Facebook and other major internet sites, thus giving fake news broad media exposure. Yet only this summer, Facebook announced its intention to develop algorithms that detect false reports.
A lot of money can be made with fake news. A report published by the security software company Trend Micro revealed Darknet sites that offer fake news services. For $200,000 (170,000 euros), you can launch an agitational campaign that sparks public protest. For $55,000, you can discredit a journalist. The service packages usually offer fake profiles and groups in social networks, the fake content itself, and enough likes and retweets to spread the word quickly.
According to a study on fake news conducted by the London School of Economics and Political Science, online advertising is another source of revenue. Such advertising promotes visually appealing articles that generate large amounts of traffic. The veracity of the reports is of no importance. The programmed advertising scheme spreads automatically, which is why fake news reports on the Las Vegas shooting attract more online readers than reports by the New York Times.
Why is fake news successful?
In an interview with Germany's public broadcaster ARD, social psychologist Catarina Katzer said that people are processing information more and more superficially due to the abundance of material on news and social media sites. "We know that we only read 10 to 15 percent of the pages we access online. Everything else falls into a black hole," she said. This factor, combined with the alleged convenience of being able to verify the accuracy of reports, makes people susceptible to fake news.
"When we find things on the web, we always seek familiar cognitive structures or let them guide us," Katzer added, saying that this selective perception could explain why people believe fake news: people's existing views are merely validated.
Just a normal scene at a harbor, isn't it?
Hard to catch, if you don't know what to look for: This picture has been manipulated in numerous ways. Can you find the changes?
The most obvious change is the added drainpipe on the lower right of the previous image. But there's more: On the left side, shadows were lengthened. To the right of the woman, fence posts have been moved. Her chin has also been shortened, her forehead smoothed, and her hair is slightly different.
... until you see the original. The shadow does not match the man. His face has fewer wrinkles; also garbage bins and a tree branch have been added in the background.
The EU Commission wants Facebook, Twitter and Google to report regularly on fake news and disinformation campaigns ahead of the European elections in May. Russia has been singled out as a suspect source.


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SILu™MAb Rituximab (MSQC13) is a recombinant, stable isotope-labeled, monoclonal antibody which incorporates [13C6, 15N4]-Arginine and [13C6, 15N2]-Lysine. Expressed in CHO cells, it is designed to be used as an internal standard for the quantitative mass spectrometry analysis of Rituximab in human serum.
This product is licensed under U.S. Patent No. 7,396,688 and foreign counterparts from E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company. The purchase of this product conveys to the buyer the nontransferable right to use the purchased amount of the product for research and development only, including services for a third party for consideration. The buyer cannot sell or otherwise transfer this product, its components or materials made using this product or its components to a third party. Information about licenses for excluded uses is available from: E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company; Attn: Associate Director, Commercial Development; DuPont Experimental Station E268; 200 Powdermill Rd.; Wilmington, DE 19803; 1-877-881-9787 (voice), 1-302-695-1437 (fax), licensing@dupont.com.


text:
Mavis Staples Shares New Song "Anytime"
We Get By Due Out May 10 via ANTI-; Album Produced by Ben Harper
Apr 18, 2019 By Christopher Roberts
Soul legend and civil rights activist Mavis Staples is releasing a new album, We Get By, on May 10 via ANTI-. Ben Harper produced the album. Now she has shared another song from it, "Anytime." Listen below, followed by Staples' upcoming tour dates.
Harper had this to say in a press release: "I come from a family of Mavis fans. So her music has been woven into the fabric of my life from the very start. When I got the call for this gig, it felt like my entire career, everything I'd ever written, had been pre-production for this."
The album is the follow-up to 2017's If All I Was Was Black, which was produced by Wilco's Jeff Tweedy.
Staples' upcoming tour dates include three shows dubbed "Mavis & Friends: Celebrating 80 Years of Mavis Staples," which will feature special guests each night, including David Byrne, Jason Isbell, Jon Batiste, John Prine, Elle King, Benjamin Booker, and more. Proceeds from these three shows "will go directly towards extending the Newport Folk Festivals Foundation's support of music education programs in New York, Nashville and Los Angeles."
Staples had this to say about the shows: "I just wanted the world to know that I made it to 80! I am letting my fans know that I'm over the hill but now I'm going over the mountain."
Mavis Staples Tour Dates:
4/18 - Byron Bay, Australia - Byron Bay Bluesfest
4/23 - Auckland, New Zealand - The Civic w/ Tami Neilson
5/2 - New Orleans, LA - New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival
5/9 - New York, NY - Mavis & Friends: Celebrating 80 Years of Mavis Staples @ Apollo Theater SOLD OUT
5/15 - Nashville, TN - Mavis & Friends: Celebrating 80 Years of Mavis Staples @ Ryman Auditorium
5/22 - Los Angeles, CA - Mavis & Friends: Celebrating 80 Years of Mavis Staples @ The Theatre at Ace Hotel
5/31 - Ogden, UT - Ogden Music Festival
6/9 - Nelsonville, OH - Nelsonville Music Festival 2019
6/23 - Dublin, Ireland - Olympia Theatre
6/25 - Norrmalm, Sweden - Nalen
6/26 - 6/30 - Worthy Farm, UK - Glastonbury Festival 2019
6/27 - Amsterdam, Netherlands - Theater Carré
6/28 - Antwerpen, Belgium - Open-Air Theatre
7/2 - Bath, UK - The Forum
7/4 - London, UK - Roundhouse
7/5 - Paris, France - La Cantine de la Cigale
7/6 - Lyon, France - Theatres Romaines De Fourviere
7/16 - Morrison, CO - Red Rocks w/ Norah Jones
7/17 - Aspen, CO - Belly Up Aspen
7/19 - Chicago, IL - Pitchfork Music Festival
7/20 - Lincoln, NE - ZooFest
7/31 - Cape May, NJ - Cape May Convention Hall
8/1 - Vienna, VA - Filene Center at Wolf Trap w/ Lyle Lovett
8/3 - Lagrange, GA - Sweetland Amphitheatre at Boyd Park
8/10 - Lexington, KY - Railbird Festival
8/11 - San Francisco, CA - Outside Lands Festival
9/6 - Philadelphia, PA - Mann Center for the Performing Arts w/ Brandi Carlile
9/14 - New York, NY - Madison Square Garden w/ Brandi Carlile
9/21 - North Adams, MA - FreshGrass Festival
9/22 - East Aurora, NY - Borderland Festival
10/5 - Florence, AL - Shoals Fest
Support Under the Radar on Patreon.
tvzion apk
Mavis Staples previous all album songs are very good and sound is very pretty.
typhoontv
I'm excited to listen mavis staples new album song so countdown begins for me.


text:
Родион:

 Родион — мужское имя.

Носители:
 Родион (Иродион) (ум. I век) — апостол от семидесяти.
 Родион Несторович — московский боярин.
 Родион Ослябя (ум. 1380 либо после 1389) — легендарный монах-воин, инок Троице-Сергиевского монастыря. Причислен к лику святых.

См. также
 Родион Раскольников — главный действующий персонаж романа Фёдора Михайловича Достоевского «Преступление и наказание».

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Why Do Bedouin Women Have Facial Tattoos?
Bedouin woman in Palestine | © Ryan Rodrick Beiler / Shutterstock
The art of tattooing is ancient one and dates back to the pre-Islamic era. In a region where tattoos are now largely taboo, many people are curious as to why Bedouin women wear them so boldly across their faces and what they really symbolise.
The art has faced a huge decline from the 1930s onwards, and nowadays it is rare to see the striking face of a tattooed Bedouin woman in Jordan and the Middle East. Travel outside of the capital to more remote areas in the north and south, however, where tribal culture remains strong, and you'll find some older women who still sport these intriguing symbols, speaking to a rich and intriguing ancient culture.
Why the face?
Although Bedouin women tattooed themselves all over their bodies – wrists, ankles, breasts, thighs – facial tattoos were the most significant as they were visible to the public. Tattoos were most commonly located on several significant spots on the face: dots or symbols above or between the eyebrows, dots on the nose, beauty spots on the cheek and lines and symbols below the lip and on the chin.
Facial tattoos on Bedouin women. (instagram/saharesfandiari)
Health and protection
Tattoos traditionally symbolised protection in battles and wars as well as from spirits and the evil eye. In some areas, tattoos were also used for medical purposes; many believed that a combination of dots on the side of the head or above the eyes would heal aches and pains and prevent disease.
Bedouin woman in Tunisia, 1899 David Shapinsky / Wikimedia Commons
Many great and revered poets from the pre-Islamic era used imagery of tattoos in their poetry as a strong symbol of beauty. The Mu'allaqāt, a collection of seven long poems from the pre-Islamic Arab world, repeatedly reference tattoos and tattooed women in connection with beauty. In one poem, poet Zuhair bin Abi Salma compares the land of his beloved one to a hand that was tattooed with all the colours and curves. Folkloric songs also celebrate women with tattooed faces as the epitome of beauty.
Poor man's gold
Often referred to as 'the poor man's jewellery', tattoos were used a means of decorating the body and face, acting as a more financially affordable alternative to gold and silver. The positioning of tattoos on the face complements the areas of a woman's face considered the most beautiful, namely the lips and the eyes.
The influence of Islam on the art of tattooing was strong, and Muslim Bedouin women would often tattoo themselves with crescents and stars and other geometric designs prominent in Islamic art. Similarly, many Christian Bedouin women tattoo themselves with crosses in remembrance of Christ.
Bedouin nomad keluan / Pixabay
Identity and belonging
Tattoos were also popular and significant as symbols of belonging to a particular tribe. Tattooing held a strong place in many communities, which unfortunately dispersed to bigger cities, and local customs and traditions became less important, so the art of tattooing went into decline from the '30s.
Process of tattooing
One of the most interesting aspects of tattooing in Bedouin culture is the process itself. The tattooer would usually be a nomad or gypsy, who would travel to tattoo the women in exchange for money, grain, butter or milk. The client would go get the tattoo alone, and both parties remained anonymous to each other, maintaining a mysterious aspect. Tattoo artists used an odd number of needles and Chinese black ink or smoke residue to give the work a dark, lasting colour.


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Janette Hopper's exhibit Natural Milieu, An Altered Point of View is on display at Wilma Daniels Gallery at CFCC. It is a mixed media exhibit, featuring 2-D and 3-D pieces, sound, and video, and the focus is the natural world. While Janette says her work often depicts nature in all its glory, this exhibit reveals troubles in the natural world. Janette is moderating a panel discussion connected to the exhibit called Perspectives on Overpopulation, Loss of Biodiversity and Stewardship on Wednesday, June 14 at Union Station, 4:00pm-6:00pm. The goal is to identify the greatest environmental concerns of our time and consider solutions.
Panel members are Dr. Alina Szmant, UNCW Marine Biologist; Phoebe Hood, sea turtle rescuer and rehabilitator; Rhonda Sturgill from the Nature Conservancy; Dr. Lisa Ann Kelly, UNCP Biologist; Chantay Allen from Cape Fear River Watch; and Karola Luttringhaus, Artist and Founder/Director of Sarus Festival. Artist Janette Hopper moderates.
Listen to Janette Hopper and Dr. Alina Szmant talk about their environmental concerns, and one of the pieces in Janette's exhibit about sea turtles, above. The exhibit at the Wilma Daniels Gallery can be viewed Monday-Friday, Noon to 5:00pm; the closing reception is Friday, June 23, 6:00pm-9:00pm.
Panel discussion: Perspectives on Overpopulation, Loss of Biodiversity and Stewardship. Wednesday, June 14, 4:00pm-6:00pm at CFCC Union Station Auditorium at Red Cross & Front Streets. Room U170.


Video tutorial and supporting .udk files using in the openly available Unreal Games Engine, Editor and Developer's Kit. (http://www.udk.com/) This activity demonstrates how to bring in a static mesh from a programme like 3ds Max. It also covers an introduction to collisions and materials.


text:
Real Academia de Ingeniería
Pro Rebus Academiae Foundation
About RAI
Mr. Eduardo Alonso Pérez de Ágreda
Medalla nº XX
Académico constituyente
Toma de posesión:
December 1st 1994
He received a Degree in Civil Engineering by Universidad Politécnica de Madrid in 1969 and a Ph.D. by Northwestern University in 1973.
He has worked in Rodio España (1969-71) and was a student researcher at Northwestern University of Evanston-Illinois (1971-73), Research Associate at McGill University in Montreal (1973-74), Full Professor (1974-86) at UPC-Barcelona Tech and since 1986 he acts as Faculty Chair at that same university.
He has taught soil mechanics, rock mechanics, geotechnical engineering and foundations, probability and risk in geotechnical engineering, soil dynamics, constitutive equations and tunnels and underground excavations.
He has published more than four hundred papers in international journals and national & international symposia, to which he has been invited to give many keynote lectures. His area of expertise includes such research fields as probability and statistics in soil mechanics, unsaturated soil mechanics, rock mechanics and thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour of soils, embankment dams and slope stability. He is a reviewer of several international journals and president of the ITC106 Committee (Unsaturated Soils) of the International Society of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.
He has submitted more than 200 reports as a consultant, in Spain and abroad, on deep excavations, power plants, walls, ground improvement, design of shallow and deep foundations, slope stability, underpinning of structures, ground recognition, industrial and earth dams, tunnels and nuclear waste storage.
He was awarded the Thomas Telford Medal (1994 & 2006), the greatest honour presented by the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) of the UK; the 2009 & 2010 Geotechnical Research Medal and the 2005 Crampton Prize, also by the ICE; the José Torán Award (1995), granted by the Spanish Committee on Large Dams; the 2000 Narcis Monturiol Award, conferred by the Generalitat de Catalunya, for his outstanding scientific and technical contributions to engineering. He was appointed by the Comité Français de Mécanique des Sols et Travaux des Fondations to be the 2nd Coulomb Lecturer (2003), by University Texas A & M, as the 11th Spencer Buchanan Lecturer (2003), by the Georgia Institute of Technology, to give the 10th Annual Sowers Lecture (2007), by the Italian Geotechnical Association, to give the 10th Arrigo Croce Lecture (2011) and by the International Society of Landslides to be the 1st Heim Lecturer (2012).
Next Activities
October 8, 2014 - 09:00
Jornada 20º Aniversario de la RAI en Bilbao
Entrega acta de Académico Correspondiente al Prof. Dalrymple
Entrega acta de Académico Correspondiente al Dr. Manuel Heitor
Fotones y neuronas: otras puertas de la percepción
Report of Activities 2012
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Entidad colaboradora:
© 2012 Real Academia de Ingeniería


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text:
Q: getElementById in temporary document is not function i have problem when i want to get id in li element and stored in temporary document.
this is my javascript code.
var tempNode = document.createElement("div"); //creating element for storing response
    tempNode.innerHTML=ajaxhttp.responseText;
var nodes = tempNode.getElementsByTagName("div");

ajaxhttp.responseText equals to

    .....
    parent
    parent

fdfs

<a href="example.com2011/11/16/43422/" title="fdsdfしい! モsdf モバイルdsf

......

i'm sory if too much but that is my problem.
when i try to loop and get id with this code
for (n=0; n<nodes.length; n++) {
 console.log(tempNode.getElementById('recent-posts-3'));
}

the error is not function.and when i try to document.getElementById('recent-posts-3'); the error is same. how i can  fixed this problem?
note :
if in my tempNode only this

fdfs

<a href="example.com2011/11/16/43422/" title="fdsdfしい! モsdf モバイルdsf

that's work. but not in my case i want to all element.
2.and i'm not use jquery i want pure javascript.

A: getElementById is a method of document, but you use it on a element
You may use element.querySelector() instead:
tempNode.querySelector('li[id="recent-posts-3"]')

A: An ID must be unique within the entire document, and as such there is no reason for the function getElementById to be available for each node. Instead, just use document.getElementById; it will return the element with that ID (of which there should only be one).
To do this, you do need to append the div to the body first:
tempNode.style.display = "none"; // to visually still hide it

document.body.appendChild(tempNode);

var elem = document.getElementById("recent-posts-3");

A: Tried this code in Chrome , Firefox 7, IE 8
var div = document.createElement("div");
div.innerHTML = 'AAAA';
var a = div.getElementById('myId');
alert(a.id);

Chrome: alerts myId
Firefox: alerts myId
IE: gives Object doesn't support this property or method error
So it seems that in IE 8 at least when you create with document.createElement(EDIT: and when you retrieve an element) it has only one method nextSibling, while in Chrome and Firefox the entire method list is added
So the only cross browser solution I can think of right now is to add the element to a hidden div in the document and then execute the getElementById
SEE: http://jsfiddle.net/zMkfr/

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


There aren't too many things that can put a stop to all of your plans quite like sudden expenses coming your way. When you're the type of person who takes good care to manage your money properly, then you probably have figured out exactly how you're going to spend all your money. However, when you find yourself suddenly loaded with additional bills that you weren't ready for, it can be difficult to know how you're actually going to be able to cover all of these costs. Whether it's medical bills, car repairs, or school expenses, these unexpected costs can really throw you off.
You might find it helpful to look into a range of ways to get your paycheck much earlier if you want to be sure that you're able to cover your costs. Anyone who gets a paycheck on a regular basis will be able to apply to get a payday loan to help them deal with the current bills that are making their life so difficult. When you consider just how many companies are offering online payday installment loans, you can sometimes have a little bit of a challenge deciding on the kind of company to use. After checking out all of the following advice, though, it whenever be much easier for you to be able to decide on the kind of payday loan to get.
As you start thinking about all of the different companies you can work with to get your payday loan, one of the most important considerations will be what type of interest rate you can secure. Because you don't want to end up having to spend more money than you have to, it will typically be a good idea to look around for the kind of quality lenders who will be able to keep their rates very low. In general, online loan companies these days are going to be a lot more likely to be able to help you get the kind of low interest rate you need than brick-and-mortar lenders.
Many people will also suggest that you spend some time looking into the reviews that each payday lender has gotten online to help you in making your decision. The information you find in these reviews will really clarify your decision for you.
If you're in the market for a payday loan, you'll discover that there are all kinds of options for you to consider. It will end up being very easy to get the outcome you want from your loan when you've been able to do some research ahead of time.


Regardless of the specific product or pollutant at issue, MG+M's litigators employ our talent, vision, teamwork and fierce advocacy to achieve optimal results in the most cost-effective manner. MG+M attorneys are experienced in the efficient and effective defense of environmental litigation claims, including those related to property damage, bodily injury, regulatory interpretation, and compliance.
Environmental matters can have significant financial ramifications for a business. MG+M's firm-wide emphasis on teamwork allows us to create multi-office teams of litigators with the particular skills needed to specifically address each environmental claim as effectively and efficiently as possible. Our attorneys constantly consult with our teams of experts and investigators to fully grasp the scope of environmental issues and work collaboratively to determine the most favorable approach for resolving litigation for each of our clients.
Even the simplest environmental problems require knowledge from many different disciplines. MG+M combines extensive trial experience with broad substantive experience in the constantly-changing arenas of federal, state, and local environmental law and regulation, in addition to the technical areas required to analyze and resolve environmental claims. Our lawyers have hands-on experience in environmental litigation ranging from pre-litigation legal and technical consultation through trials and appeals.
Obtained $1.2 million dollar arbitration judgment for a utility company in a dispute with a national university over the proper interpretation of a gas purchase agreement.
Obtained a multimillion-dollar recovery for a utility company in a suit to recover response costs from a chemical manufacturer that had caused significant environmental contamination at the sites of several former manufactured-gas plants owned by the utility.
Resolved more than 70 environmental cleanup and indemnification claims on behalf of the purchaser of $4.4 billion in chemical plants located in 53 facilities worldwide. Served as trial counsel in the Southern District of New York for component of case concerning Clean Air Act claims that involved over $500 million in potential damages.
Successfully argued for our client, a manufacturer of a septic system additive, that their product did not harm the environment. A state department of environmental protection banned the sale of the product, in spite of its approval of it 11 years earlier. Instead of relying solely on our discovery of the department's basis for its decision and the literature search we conducted, MG+M attorneys proactively commissioned a study on the environmental effects of the product when used as intended. The study confirmed that the product does not harm the environment when used as intended, and does not affect septic system function. The Court held that the department's decision to ban the product was arbitrary and capricious and not based on substantial evidence that the product harmed the environment. The department then agreed to allow the sale of the product in the state.


You might only think about energy storage when your laptop or cellphone are running out of juice, but utilities can plug bigger versions into the electric grid. And thanks to rapidly declining lithium-ion battery prices, using energy storage to stretch electricity generation capacity.
Based on our research on energy storage costs and performance in North Carolina, and our analysis of the potential role energy storage could play within the coming years, we believe that utilities should prepare for the advent of cheap grid-scale batteries and develop flexible, long-term plans that will save consumers money.
The amount of electricity consumers use varies according to the time of day and between weekdays and weekends, as well as seasonally and annually as everyone goes about their business.
Those variations can be huge.
For example, the times when consumers use the most electricity in many regions is nearly double the average amount of power they typically consume. Utilities often meet peak demand by building power plants that run on natural gas, due to their lower construction costs and ability to operate when they are needed.
However, it's expensive and inefficient to build these power plants just to meet demand in those peak hours. It's like purchasing a large van that you will only use for the three days a year when your brother and his three kids visit.
The grid requires power supplied right when it is needed, and usage varies considerably throughout the day. When grid-connected batteries help supply enough electricity to meet demand, utilities don't have to build as many power plants and transmission lines.
Given how long this infrastructure lasts and how rapidly battery costs are dropping, utilities now face new long-term planning challenges.
Grid-scale batteries are being installed coast-to-coast as this snapshot from 2017 indicates. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Battery Storage Market Trends, 2018.
About half of the new generation capacity built in the U.S. annually since 2014 has come from solar, wind or other renewable sources. Natural gas plants make up the much of the rest but in the future, that industry may need to compete with energy storage for market share.
In practice, we can see how the pace of natural gas-fired power plant construction might slow down in response to this new alternative.
So far, utilities have only installed the equivalent of one or two traditional power plants in grid-scale lithium-ion battery projects, all since 2015. But across California, Texas, the Midwest and New England, these devices are benefiting the overall grid by improving operations and bridging gaps when consumers need more power than usual.
Based on our own experience tracking lithium-ion battery costs, we see the potential for these batteries to be deployed at a far larger scale and disrupt the energy business.
When we were given approximately one year to conduct a study on the benefits and costs of energy storage in North Carolina, keeping up with the pace of technological advances and increasing affordability was a struggle.
Projected battery costs changed so significantly from the beginning to the end of our project that we found ourselves rushing at the end to update our analysis.
Once utilities can easily take advantage of these huge batteries, they will not need as much new power-generation capacity to meet peak demand.
Even before batteries could be used for large-scale energy storage, it was hard for utilities to make long-term plans due to uncertainty about what to expect in the future.
For example, most energy experts did not anticipate the dramatic decline in natural gas prices due to the spread of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, starting about a decade ago – or the incentive that it would provide utilities to phase out coal-fired power plants.
In recent years, solar energy and wind power costs have dropped far faster than expected, also displacing coal – and in some cases natural gas – as a source of energy for electricity generation.
Something we learned during our storage study is illustrative.
We found that lithium ion batteries at 2019 prices were a bit too expensive in North Carolina to compete with natural gas peaker plants – the natural gas plants used occasionally when electricity demand spikes. However, when we modeled projected 2030 battery prices, energy storage proved to be the more cost-effective option.
Federal, state and even some local policies are another wild card. For example, Democratic lawmakers have outlined the Green New Deal, an ambitious plan that could rapidly address climate change and income inequality at the same time.
And no matter what happens in Congress, the increasingly frequent bouts of extreme weather hitting the U.S. are also expensive for utilities. Droughts reduce hydropower output and heatwaves make electricity usage spike.
Several utilities are already investing in energy storage.
California utility Pacific Gas & Electric, for example, got permission from regulators to build a massive 567.5 megawatt energy-storage battery system near San Francisco, although the utility's bankruptcy could complicate the project.
Hawaiian Electric Company is seeking approval for projects that would establish several hundred megawatts of energy storage across the islands. And Arizona Public Service and Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority are looking into storage options as well.
We believe these and other decisions will reverberate for decades to come. If utilities miscalculate and spend billions on power plants it turns out they won't need instead of investing in energy storage, their customers could pay more than they should to keep the lights through the middle of this century.


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Showing the Philosopher and other Tales at the Braziers Park Mini Indie Film Festival – in the Extraordinary Surroundings of an Intentional Community
Braziers Park
BRAZIERS PARK – I just finished this afternoon showing my Colin Wilson interview film at a film festival in the barn of an ancient country home called Braziers Park in England, not far from Oxford. It was a beautiful fitting location for the first show of this film to a general public after 12 years of its making. I have so much to say about this whole fantastic weekend at this extraordinary faux Gothic former home to Ian Fleming – the author of James Bond – and to Marianne Faithfull, who spent some time of her childhood here and later brought her boyfriend, Mick Jagger to visit. It is more than 300 years old, but it is thanks to its more recent history that I ended up here. Since the 1950s the house has been the home to an "intentional community," which is hosting this Mini Indie Film Festival this weekend.
That community is a small, nearly self-sufficient commune that acts as an educational institution, or to be more precise, a School of Integrative Social Research. So there's nothing religious or sect-related in the place. It is apparently England's oldest such community – or one of the oldest. I did managed to read a few unflattering things written about it (mostly to do with sex) by Marianne Faithfull in a book of hers about her time at the community, of which her parents were members, but it seems to have been changed since then, because I've seen nothing odd going on!
In fact, I was a little worried before I came about what I might find. But it has been a fantastically comfortable event and lifestyle. The house looks and feels like something you would see in a classic film – anything from an Agatha Christie story to Frankenstein, or, indeed, James Bond – with some 20 or so rooms for guests, a study, drawing room, large kitchen, very high ceilings, and a huge garden. There is also a campsite, and many acres of farmland, and even farm animals.
I was invited by one of the Colin Wilson film's producers to show the film here as he, Michael Butterworth, was also showing a film about his life and publishing concern. In a nutshell: Michael Butterworth is one of the founders of the Savoy Books publishing company in Manchester, and he is also the publisher of my book, Colin Wilson: Philosopher of Optimism. Mike was also one of the producers of the interview film, along with Jay Jeff Jones, who was also the director, and a small production company in England called Excalibur Productions.
Savoy Books also had a hand in the film production, so it was the perfect marriage to join up the showing of the Colin Wilson interview with the film about Savoy Books, called "House on the Borderland," which is by Clara Casian, and is about the publishers' problems with the Manchester Police Department, a battle that went on for years decades ago. (Here is the long trailer I made of the interview film, the full length of which runs 1 hour 30 minutes.)
Showing the film in the barn was a delight, as was speaking with the spectators in that setting afterwards. In fact, the festival has been a wonderfully quirky and thought-provoking adventure with a huge cross-section of films, including horror films, documentaries, short art films, and others.
There was an excellent documentary called Power Trip, by Zoe Broughton and Paul O'Connor, about the battle against fracking in England. It covers the trials of a real grassroots movement by citizens under threat of the ravages of this bizarre method of removing oil from the earth, in a battle fought by normal citizens, including many housewives, grandmothers, and people who would never otherwise have been involved in such a movement.
Ornella Bonventre in Ian Fleming Library at Braziers Park
The horror film "The Fallow Field," that I saw last night, scared the hell out of me. At first I was sorry I attended, as it played from 10 PM to 11:30 PM, and we need to get early to bed and have a full night of sleep here. I was sure this horribly frightening film would keep me awake all night with nightmares. In fact, perhaps it was the act of catharsis, but I slept much better last night than I have in days. Still, it was perhaps a help to have the leading actor in the room to talk to after the film. This way, we could confirm to ourselves that it was only a film. As this actor, Michael Dacre, proved to be harmless as a person in real life. Or rather, he seemed not at all to be the horrendous character he portrayed in the film, a character that ranks up there with the worst of them in my experience. Meaning, a horrendously evil, nasty, but at the same time human, murderer. Dacre plays a farmer who kills people and then buries them, only to dig them up again…. But I don't want to give away the story. Suffice it to say that this is an excellent horror film that also forces us to ask questions about our own humanity. It transcends the genre. Made in 2009, it has apparently had a hard time breaking out, including spending a few years in its own fallow field.
The festival is also called a "Wider Community Weekend," as it is a kind of "open doors" weekend to invite the community in for many other activities as well. Among those is the three-day workshop by Ornella Bonventre and her TAC Teatro, a workshop which she has called "The Flow Zone." I have been attending her workshops, and helping out there was well, and learning a lot about the process of acting…and getting into the flow zone.
Ornella Bonventre directing her Flow Zone workshop at Braziers Park
The festival continues tomorrow, so I may well post again on the subject. Oh, I should explain a little more about how this was the childhood home of Ian Fleming at the turn of last century, so there is a direct link to the James Bond novels somewhere. And there is an Ian Fleming library within the house. I have barely begun to explore all of the nooks and crannies, and somehow I feel I will leave the place without doing so, as there are so many activities that there is barely any time available to lie about. But this only gives me another reason to hope to return next year – maybe to show my open mic film…!
Oh dear, and how could I almost forget to mention that last night, in fitting with my usual adventures and this blog, they held an open mic in the drawing room – complete with a mic and a little amp. I had my guitar and played a couple of songs, Ornella did a bit of the song from her workshop – with everyone joining in – and many others did readings of prose – including Dacre reading something from Jack London – and Michael Butterworth reading some of his brilliant short poems. I was very touched also by a regular denizen of Braziers Park who sang a song that he said he learned here in 1961 or 1962. The beat goes on!
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Categories: Festivals, Films, Spoken Word, Theater • Tags: Braziers Park, Braziers Park Mini Indie Film Festival, Colin Wilson, Colin Wilson: Philosopher of Optimism, England culture, Excalibur Productions, Ian Fleming, Intentional Communities, Jay Jones, Marianne Faithfull, Michael Butterworth, Mick Jagger, Ornella Bonventre, Tac Teatro • Permalink
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Home/Lifestyle/Milton Viorst, journalist who coated and critiqued Mideast, dies at 92
Milton Viorst, journalist who coated and critiqued Mideast, dies at 92
LouisragDecember 14, 2022
Milton Viorst, a journalist and writer who blended conventional reportage and historic evaluation to discover topics from the Sixties rights struggles to Center East strife, together with assertions that huge U.S. navy assist to Israel has harm probabilities for peace, died Dec. 9 at a hospital in Washington. He was 92.
His son Alexander Viorst confirmed the demise however didn't present a trigger.
Over a profession spanning seven a long time and greater than 10 books, Mr. Viorst toggled between the worlds of on-the-scene reporting for the New Yorker and different mainstream publications, and scholarly analysis and coverage punditry on U.S. affairs and the Center East.
His a number of types expanded his affect and viewers however might additionally blur perceptions of whether or not Mr. Viorst was principally an advocate, analyst or observer. He noticed no contradictions in typically being suddenly. Mr. Viorst described his 1987 guide on Israel's previous and future, "Sands of Sorrow" as "half journalism, half historic and political commentary, half private odyssey" as an American Jew.
Mr. Viorst's overlapping roles as journalist and coverage analyst have been most vividly on show in Iraq, which he coated as a employees author for the New Yorker from 1988 to 1993. He chronicled the 1991 U.S.-led battle to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait and Saddam Hussein's withering assaults to place down inner uprisings by Shiites and Kurds difficult his Sunni Muslim-led regime in Baghdad.
"Fifty-millimeter machine-gun shells littered the bottom. … The wall surrounding the Shrine of Hussein appeared as if it had been struck by an earthquake," he wrote in a 1991 story for the New Yorker from Karbala, Iraq, after authorities forces crushed Shiite protests. "The colourful mosaic tiles, the granite dealing with, and the ceramic grilles that coated the home windows have been scattered all around the pavement."
He publicly argued that American administrations ought to have sought dialogue with Baghdad slightly than isolation. He known as for the USA to maintain open channels with Hussein, who was a U.S. ally for a lot of the Nineteen Eighties whereas Iraq was at battle with Iran.
He additionally warned presciently of the dangers from additional U.S. navy motion in Iraq. The U.S.-led invasion in 2003 opened years of civil battle and bloodshed that claimed the lives of about 4,500 U.S. service personnel and greater than 100,000 Iraqi insurgents and civilians, based on monitoring groups. And as Mr. Viorst and others predicted, Hussein's fall from energy in 2003 allowed Iran to exert monumental affect in Iraq via Shiite political factions and militias.
Mr. Viorst's books on the Arab world — and wider Muslim area together with Iran and Turkey — wove historic context, akin to the autumn of the Ottoman Empire and Western colonialism, into his personal reporting. The narratives sought to clarify the enduring tensions and misunderstandings between Islam and the West — "a 1,400-year battle between the Arab world and the Christian West," he as soon as stated.
A evaluate in Overseas Coverage of Mr. Viorst's "In the Shadow of the Prophet" (1998), known as him "a grasp interviewer" who "did the work of monitoring down consultant figures on all sides."
"We People consider ourselves as being so noble in bringing democracy to them," he informed the Carnegie Council in a 2006 interview. "What they see is similar outdated Western imperialism coming once more, with an American flag slightly than a British or a French flag, and democracy is only a trick. That they had a whole lot of sad years with democracy, and I'm undecided that they see it because the wave of the longer term."
Milton Viorst was born Feb. 18, 1930, in Paterson, N.J., the place his father was a shoe salesman and mom was a homemaker. He graduated in 1951 from Rutgers College and did postgraduate research on the College of Lyon in France as a Fulbright scholar.
He served two years with Air Pressure intelligence models, then acquired a grasp's diploma in historical past from Harvard College in 1955 and in journalism from Columbia College in 1956.
He labored at The Washington Put up from 1957 to 1961, then moved to the New York Put up as a Washington correspondent and Washington Star as a political author and columnist. He chronicled history-shaping matters such because the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy, the civil rights motion and the Watergate scandal.
Mr. Viorst signed a "battle tax protest pledge" in 1968 with different journalists and editors, vowing to carry again tax funds to protest the Vietnam Battle. He stated his stance landed him on President Richard M. Nixon's checklist of political opponents. In 1980, he appeared again on a nation in flux together with his guide "Fire in the Streets: America in the 1960s."
"What the sixties confirmed was that the dynamism was so nice [that] that political system was unable to accommodate it," he stated after the guide's launch. "That's why individuals needed to go outdoors the system to drive it to behave."
Throughout reporting journeys to Israel and Palestinian territories starting the Nineteen Seventies, Mr. Viorst contributed articles to retailers together with the Los Angeles Occasions and Atlantic. He developed one overriding thesis: The large U.S. navy pipeline to Israel modified the nation's character and priorities, together with increasing West Financial institution settlements, to dam any significant concessions to Palestinians for peace.
Amongst Israelis, it made Mr. Viorst both a courageous reality teller or a naive apologist. The conservative Jewish-focused journal Commentary dismissed his guide "Sands of Sorrow" as a "fairy story masquerading as historical past."
"We're actually not asking the Israelis to make existential sacrifices, we're asking them to make political adjustments," Mr. Viorst informed the PBS present "The Open Thoughts" in 2006.
In 1960, he married Judith Stahl, a poet and writer of youngsters's literature together with the bestseller "Alexander and the Horrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Dangerous Day" (printed in 1972 below her married identify). In 1970, they collaborated on "The Washington, D.C. Underground Gourmet."
Along with his spouse, of Washington, survivors embody three sons, Anthony Viorst of Denver, Nicholas Viorst of Queens and Alexander Viorst of Washington; and 7 grandchildren.
Into his 70s, Mr. Viorst saved up a prolific tempo of articles and commentary for Overseas Affairs, the New York Occasions, Esquire and different publications.
At instances, Mr. Viorst confronted different criticism from Muslim students and writers who noticed his work as over-reliant on Western values and perceptions. In 1999, he engaged in a literary sparing match with the Palestinian American author and historian Edward Said.
Writing within the Nation, Stated known as Mr. Viorst's principally favorable evaluation on the legacy of Jordan's late King Hussein stuffed with "deep Orientalist ignorance" and "racist highhandedness from a journalist whose credentials to make such judgments concerning the Arabs will not be instantly obvious or obtainable."
In Al-Ahram Weekly, Mr. Viorst fired again: "Stated's indignation exceeds his knowledge," he wrote. "As considered one of his grad college students in comparative lit would possibly say, 'C'mon, Cher Edouard, get actual!'"
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This commits adds support for runtime detection of SIMD instructions. The idea is that you would build once with all supported SIMD functions and the same binaries could run on different machines with varying support for SIMD. At runtime gf-complete will select the right functions based on the processor.
gf_cpu.c has the logic to detect SIMD instructions. On Intel processors this is done through cpuid. For ARM on linux we use getauxv.
The logic in gf_w*.c has been changed to check for runtime SIMD support and fallback to generic code.
Also a new test has been added. It compares the functions selected by gf_init when we enable/disable SIMD support through build flags, with runtime enabling/disabling. The test checks if the results are identical.
4 + * Benjamin A. Arnold, John A. Burnum, Adam W. Disney, Allen C. McBride.
8 + * Identifies whether the CPU supports SIMD instructions at runtime.
130 + // NEON and we dont have a reliable way to detect runtime support.


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How To Grow To Be An Essay Writer
Our standard newsletters will give you the tips you want when you require it most. Plus, you'll also acquire courses and apprenticeships that you may possibly be interested in applying to. If you already have an agent and a publisher waiting for your manuscript, your agent will likely study it just before sending it on to the publisher .
His initial go at lucrative employment immediately after the war — a stint as an ad copywriter in New York — was a miserable failure, and as a result the engagement was put on hold. But when Fitzgerald published his initial novel, This Side of Paradise, at 23, Zelda's household ultimately gave their blessing. Gore Vidal's biography reads like an especially juicy section of Who's Who in America. His extended clan incorporated politicians, military heroes, Broadway actresses, and the step-household of Jacqueline Onassis. The relentlessly ambitious writer proved himself worthy of their firm early, publishing his very first novel, Williwaw, at 21, and his next, The City and the Pillar, two years later. It's the latter book that sealed Vidal's fate, each as a literary superstar and an unabashed gay writer in an era — the mid-20th century — in which contempt for homosexuality remained the norm.
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Each Ethan's depression and his account of a vicious father had been part of a performance—one helpful adequate to dupe a psychologist and draw the eye away from character pathology. "The Lady in the Window" acknowledges a debt to the film "Rear Window," by generating Anna Fox a fan of noir films and Hitchcock. And Mallory has publicly referred a couple of instances to "The Girl on the Train," a effectively-told story about a boozily unreliable witness, a lady a great deal like Mallory's boozily unreliable witness.
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CPUT students 'need history lesson' after church arson
CAPE TOWN: St Mark's Anglican church Reverend Austen Jackson said they are very sadden of what happened to the church. Judge Siraj Desai and Jackson visited the church for the first time on Friday in Zonnebloem after it was torched during protest by a small group of students and workers on Wednesday.
Jackson said the fire on Wednesday partially damaged the under-croft of the church.
"How this person entered we don't know, but he allegedly came in and threw a petrol bomb.
"I doubt they understood or knew the historic significance of this church in District Six.
"This church has served this community for 130 years and been through the darkest days of apartheid when its residential community was obliterated," said Jackson. Video by: Lubabalo Poswa/ ANA Pictures


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State Department is preventing Biden from accessing messages from foreign leaders
By Kylie Atwood, CNN
Updated 11:38 PM EST, Wed November 11, 2020
9/11 commission says Trump transition refusal makes US vulnerable
A stack of messages from foreign leaders to President-elect Joe Biden are sitting at the State Department but the Trump administration is preventing him from accessing them, according to State Department officials familiar with the messages.
Traditionally, the State Department supports all communications for the President-elect, which is why many countries began sending messages to State over the weekend. But with Biden prohibited from accessing State Department resources by the Trump administration, because President Donald Trump refuses to accept Biden's victory, dozens of incoming messages have not been received.
Biden's team is in touch with foreign governments without State Department involvement, and he has held numerous calls with leaders, including Germany's Angela Merkel and Canada's Justin Trudeau. But they are operating without the logistical and translation support that the State Department operations center provides.
Here are the world leaders who congratulated Joe Biden
"They would prefer to be using the State Department resources," said a source familiar with the situation, who noted that the Biden team is having to deal with the unexpected challenge of facilitating these calls.
Not only is Biden being blocked by the State Department from receiving messages and assistance facilitating and from preparing for calls, on Tuesday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to acknowledge Biden's victory, saying that "there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration," igniting a furor and roiling diplomats.
Biden is also being blocked from getting the same intelligence briefings as the President, known as the President's Daily Brief, and should the Trump administration continue to block a typical transition close to Inauguration Day on January 20, there are concerns Biden's administration will be playing catch-up the day he takes office.
Foreign leaders have begun to figure out that State cannot get them in touch with the President-elect and their teams have reached out to former Obama-era diplomats for their assistance on how to send congratulatory messages to Biden's team, sources told CNN. Some foreign governments feel they are navigating an unfamiliar maze, foreign diplomats have told CNN.
CNN has asked the State Department and the Biden transition team for comment.
In the past, the State Department has facilitated a smoother process.
"It was helpful to have State ops place the calls and to provide translation services, and we were grateful for the cooperation from the Bush administration for making that happen," said Denis McDonough, who served in the Obama administration and worked with Obama during the transition.
Calls aren't highly sensitive
The calls taking place right now are not highly sensitive, and even during a well-oiled transition period they are not normally conducted on secure lines, multiple sources explained.
"These calls in the past have been handled on open lines. They are congratulatory calls," McDonough said, adding that both sides are providing readouts, which is consistent with protocol.
Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
Pompeo refuses to acknowledge Biden has won election, sparking furor and 'disgust' among diplomats
Barack Obama often made these calls to foreign leaders on his cell phone when he was President-elect, explained a State Department official who worked on setting up those calls at the time. But they all went through the operations center, which meant there is a government record of the calls he made.
Career officials at the State Department are ready to help the Biden team when the time comes.
"The agencies implemented the law faithfully prior to the election. The materials are ready, the offices are ready, everything is ready; they are waiting for the green light," said David Marchick, the director of the Center for Presidential Transition at the Partnership for Public Service.
Operating without State Department support right now, the Biden team – made up of many experienced former government officials – has sent out readouts of all of the calls, which help with record keeping. They are making an effort to formalize the process and will use State Department resources when they are available, said a source familiar with the unfolding situation.
The US Department of State logo is displayed inside the media briefing room 01 November 2007 at the US Department of State in Washington, DC.
PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images
Trump's refusal to concede leaves diplomats unclear on what to tell allies
This is a stark contrast with the transition between the Obama and Trump administrations. At the time, President-elect Trump opted not to use State Department resources. Instead, he made his calls out of Trump Tower and resisted using the government support and coordination system, which meant that translators and staff sat waiting without any work while Trump made calls on his own, a State Department official told CNN at the time.
At any other point since Biden left the White House, he would have been able to call into the State Department operations center to place a call to a foreign leader, State Department officials told CNN. Former presidents and vice presidents are allowed to use the resource whenever they wish. But now, as he is President-elect, Biden is being prevented from using that facility by the Trump administration.
CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to clarify that the Biden team's contacts with foreign governments have been in response to outreach by those administrations.
CNN's Evan Perez contributed to this report.