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Home/Sports/MLB Free Agency: Marcus Semien, Rangers agree to seven-year deal
MLB Free Agency: Marcus Semien, Rangers agree to seven-year deal
SportsetNovember 29, 2021
NS Texas Rangers and free central midfielder Marcus Semien CBS Sports HQ's Jim Bowden confirmed to have agreed to the terms of a seven-year deal. The deal will cost $175 million, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB . Network. Semien was also a free agent last year and had to settle on a one-year contract with Blue jay.
By betting on himself, Semien – Ranked by CBS Sports as the #4 free agency available this winter – earned yourself a much bigger payday this season, hitting .265 / .334 / .538 (133 OPS+) with 39 doubles, two triples, 45 home hits, 102 RBI, 115 runs, 15 steals, and 7.3 WARs in 2021. In that one year, "show-me" deal, he also agreed to move from a short base to a second base with the Blue Jays. He won the AL Golden Glove in second place. In many ways, this is like Semien's career year, but he also finished third in the AL MVP poll in 2019, posting an even higher WIN that season with an A.
Semien has dropped in 2020, but for a variety of reasons we can pretty much forgive anyone for the 2020 slump. The bottom line is that over the past two seasons, Semien has been one of the best players around. the best in baseball and he showed that he can play solid defense. in two positions on the midfield.
Before signing with Semien, Rangers seemed to have Isiah Kiner-Falefa be brief and Nick Solak second. The raised stats don't sit well with Kiner-Falefa, and Rangers are connected to several popular free agent shortcuts so far this season.
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For the Blue Jays, losing Semien was painful. They committed one of the scariest fouls in baseball last season and Semien was central. They want to have a foundation as a powerhouse football club around the MVP runner-up position Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., so losing to Semien must have been a pain in the ass. However, there are still a lot of seasons left.
But the big news here is that Rangers are getting Semien. They were one of baseball's worst teams last season at 60-102, but they've barely had any wages carried over this season and we've seen them run very high wages before. this. The problem is, they don't even have close to a single player, so signing Semien would signal a very positive season for this club.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-marcus-semien-rangers-agree-to-seven-year-deal/ MLB Free Agency: Marcus Semien, Rangers agree to seven-year deal
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My two friends made the best of travel plans, down to the last detail. After a week's vacation in Florida for Christmas to visit family, the plan was to get to the airport with plenty of time to spare, find the gate, settle in, board the plane then fly straight home to Boston. What could go wrong? They had a plan. No detours, right?
But the gate they went to was the wrong one and they didn't realize it until the last moment. So they made a mad dash to the correct gate but their plane had already whooshed away. So they scrambled to get another flight but now they had to fly to Buffalo, Baltimore, Chicago and then to Boston. Fourteen hours, 2,887 miles and multiple plane changes after leaving the Sunshine State they finally made it home. But it was a good plan, yes?
Plans made. Plans changed. To do lists carefully created and then altered and then edited some more and then just tossed out. We always make plans, it's just what humans do, but then life is just life and everything changes. Detours happen. Some are a mere inconvenience like my friends' travel odyssey. But some detours are jolting, jarring, completely out of left field.
We plan to stay with our love for all of life and then divorce happens. We plan our kid's lives to a "T", all so they'll be happy and then they struggle or fail or get in trouble. We arrive at work and get a pink slip. Walk into the doctor's office and receive bad news.
Some detours are a gift. Told she'll never get pregnant a young woman finds she is with child, a miracle! We connect with an old friend and this chance encounter leads to a new job. We pull a pair of jeans from the laundry pile and find that check we thought we had lost.
Doesn't mean that God somehow plays dice with the universe or throws curveballs our way to upset our best laid plans for sport or show. That's not the God I believe in. It does mean that one of the best spiritual lessons of life, especially at the beginning of the year when so many of us make a plan, is to plan on that plan changing. To plan that the road we are on will absolutely include detours, both globally and personally. To expect the unexpected and when we must, throw out the old plan, remembering that much of life is not about precision but improvisation. Just doing our best each day with whatever life tosses our way. To trust that God is not a great chess player in the sky when it comes to the game of life, that instead the Universe will give us the tools we need to get through, especially when the plan falls apart. But first we may have to let go of the plan.
So in this first week of the New Year, go ahead. Make a list. Make a plan. But use a pencil with a nice big fat pink eraser at the end. That way when the detours come (and they will), we can change the plan.
For there's the plan. And then there's life. See you on the road.
Two days until the really big countdown that will usher us all from 2011 into 2012. Since last December 31st at midnight, when that big shiny ball descended in Times Square, New York, we've lived exactly one year or 12 months or 52 weeks or 365 days or 8,760 hours or 525,600 minutes or 31,536,000 seconds. WHEW! We've walked through all four seasons: from the snows of January and the mud of March and the buds of May and the dog days of August to the colors of October and the frost of December.
We've aged one more year. The red cells in our blood stream have replaced themselves three times, the white cells once and skin cells 24 times or more. If young we've grown up, perhaps added a few inches in height or a shoe size or two. If on the older side of life we've gotten grayer or maybe even slowed down a bit. All quite an amazing trip, this journey called human life. For finally time is unrelenting. It can't be stopped or frozen. Time goes and goes and goes, keeps on ticking. No turning back the clock.
But before we depart that which was, for that which will be, here's an alternative New Year's spiritual exercise to consider. What do we need to let go of before we cross the threshold from MMXI to MMXII ? What do we need to leave behind? To forget? What do we need to forgive ourselves or others for? What mistakes that we made in 2011 need to be finally laid to rest? What regrets are we hanging on to that are best left behind in the dust of 2011? What are we still carrying that is all too heavy for our hearts or our souls or our minds? And are we ready to let it all go?
For always the past is like a closet, one we humans can easily fill up with all kinds of memories and ruminations that we keep on piling up and accumulating, stacking sky high in the recesses of memory and thought. A person we hurt by what we said or did not say, by what we did or did not do. A relationship still unreconciled. A regret for something we hoped to have done but then fell short. A goal not quite achieved. A dream deferred or lost. An ending that happened too soon. A beginning that never had the chance to bloom. What's in your 2011 closet? And are you ready to let it go, to clean out that cluttered psychic space at years' end?
In religious faith, believers have formal ways of achieving this house cleaning, this letting go. Christians confess, name their sins and stumbles and then receive absolution from God. In the Jewish tradition Yom Kippur, or the Day of Atonement, is the day to go to temple and repent for sin, to give it all up to God then let God take it all in and in this ritual find forgiveness, even redemption. Buddhists confess their faults to the Buddha in meditation. Faithful Muslims pray five times daily and in this act bring their whole selves to Allah. A good friend of mine makes a "let it go" list each year on the December 31st and then seals it up in an envelope and tosses it into a roaring fire.
Regardless of the "hows" of this rite, the effect is the same. A weight is lifted. A slate is wiped clean. You get honest with yourself and your God and maybe even another human being. Most important you let it go. And then in letting it go, you are ready to begin again, to begin anew, in a new day or a new year.
So perhaps along with prepping the house for the 31st, we can also prep our souls for the year ahead too. This is the week to spiritually clean house, to muster up the courage and the humility to venture into the back closet, discard that which weighs us down and then get on with this amazing and wonderful and awesome and hard and challenging trip called life. God knows we are all dragging around things which are best left behind in yesterday and last year.
2012 is coming. 2011 is fast drawing to a close. But before we cross that bridge, let it go. See you next year.
"Here is a better thing than the observance of Christmas day, and that is keeping Christmas. Are you willing to forget what you have done for other people and to remember what other people have done for you; to ignore what the world owes you and to think what you owe the world; to put your rights in the background and your duties in the middle distance and your chances to do a little more than your duty in the foreground; to see that your fellowmen are just as real as you are and try to look behind their faces to their hearts, hungry for you; to own that probably the only good reason for your existence is not what you are going to get out of life, but what you are going to give to life; to close your book of complaints against the management of the universe and look around you for some place where you can sow a few seeds of happiness.
Then you can keep Christmas!
Have Yourself an Imperfect Holiday!
Now picture the living room. A fire blazing away in the fireplace, just so. Every last gift has been bought and is perfectly wrapped and tucked under the tree, which is also perfectly dressed up in brightly colored ornaments, not one out of place. The whole house is perfectly clean in fact. All the family members you hoped would be home are home, safe and sound and everyone is getting along perfectly. Your neighbors envy how perfectly decorated your house is, twinkling white lights gracing perfectly landscaped shrubs and trees out front. It even snowed yesterday, but just a little, just enough for a picture perfect white dusting.
OK: now stop the music. Halt the perfectionist fantasy. Walk away from the worship at the altar of a perfect holiday. Instead get ready for an imperfect holiday.
So I want to build a fire but every year I do that the house fills up with smoke. I bought a tree but now it is tipping to the left about thirty degrees, a Yuletide leaning tower of Pisa. The house is a mess, half rolls of wrapping paper strewn across the floor and I thought I bought Aunt Mary a gift but now I'm not so sure so does that mean I have to go out to the mall again? I wish the whole family was here but Cousin Tom is still in Afghanistan on deployment and this is the first year we'll celebrate without Grandma. We miss them both so much. Kind of sad. I had planned to go all out on the house decorations outside but work was so intense with all the layoffs this year. So all I put up was the candles in the windows: that'll have to do. And now they say it may snow on the 24th!
A perfect or imperfect holiday. What will it be?
The holidays are coming. That's non-negotiable. Nothing we can do about the calendar. But what we do have control over is how each of us spiritually frames these days ahead, the spiritual attitude we bring to our holidays. That's a lesson not just for December but for all year round too. Because life is never ever perfect. Life is not some perfect image come alive from an old fashioned Christmas card. Life instead is a work in progress. Some days we burn the Christmas cookies and some days they come out just right. Some times we love the gift of today we get and some days we can't wait to return it and just move on to tomorrow. The acceptance of this truth, whether at the holidays or any day, may just be the key to being a happier person, finally at peace with life just as it is, even with all its imperfections. Imperfect. And that's ok. That's life.
I always like to look to the story from my faith tradition which sets the tone for my holy imperfect days ahead. It stars a teen girl named Mary with a very unplanned pregnancy. An earthly Dad named Joseph who sets aside his hurt and faithfully stands by his betrothed. A bumpy and exhausting eighty mile donkey ride from Nazareth to Bethlehem. Arrive to find out every room is booked at the ancient Motel 6 so the birthing room will have to be in the stable with the animals. Disheveled and unkempt shepherds crashing into the delivery room moments after labor. And then three uninvited kings who don't bring diapers or food but instead show up with gifts of gold, frankincense and myrrh. Kind of imperfect, huh?
A beautiful world. A beautiful life. A beautiful holiday. But always imperfect. Never perfect. That's the truth I hope to find gift wrapped under the tree this year.
Declaring a Truce in the "War on Christmas"
The so called "War on Christmas" debate is being fought, right on schedule in these days before the 25th. On one side are folks like Fox News Commentator Bill O'Reilly who for the past fifteen years has used his prime time TV show to rail against a culture he sees as robbing Christmas of its "true" elements. Like not allowing religious nativity scenes on public property. Having kids sing only secular, non-religious songs in concerts at school. Banning Santa Claus in public schools. Substituting the word "holiday" for "Christmas", "Happy holidays" as a seasonal greeting versus "Merry Christmas". Or this year, perhaps worst of all for pro-Christmas crusaders, calling a "Christmas tree" a "holiday tree". It's this last seasonal "sin" which touched off a Christmas controversy, right down in little Rhode Island.
So much light and heat, all over a holiday. Or should I say a holy day? For just what is Christmas? What has the 25th and the entire season from Thanksgiving to the 1st of the year become in 2011?
Is Christmas a strictly religious celebration? Then Christmas is Christians celebrating the birth of Jesus Christ, whom they confess is God come down to earth in a child, "Emmanuel" meaning "God with us". Christmas is Christians attending church, worshipping God in a preparatory holy season called Advent, moving towards Bethlehem in faith and hope, where that baby was born. And in that journey many Christians honor God and this miracle by carrying out acts of intentional kindness, especially to and with the poor, in food drives and charitable donations, and increased gifts to charity. Christians believe this in-breaking of God into the world heralds a new vision for all creation: peace on earth and goodwill to all people, as the angels declared. All people. And no more war says this prince of peace. No more poverty. No more despair because now God is here, all in a tiny infant born some 2,000 years ago.
Is this Christmas? Yes. Absolutely. And I love it.
But Christmas in 2011 is also about all the energy and the activities and the trappings of the season. Christmas songs on the radio, ones you've sung for years. The buying and giving of gifts to the tune of $877 billion, according to one estimate. Stringing bright lights on the house and in doing so somehow pushing back the darkest time of the year. Attending Christmas parties at the office and with neighbors and sending out millions of cards to reconnect with the circle of love we call our extended community. Getting some blessed time off at years' end and just resting. Returning home for Christmas and then being with family and loved ones around a holiday table overflowing with rich food and sweet memories. Getting away on vacation and skiing or lolling on a sunny beach. Christmas is a time to pause at the end of 365 days.
Is this Christmas? Yes. Absolutely. And I love it, at least most of the time.
Now the cliché response for me as a Christian would be to surely join in on this argument about the "War on Christmas", right? To get all offended and huffy at the substitution of "holiday" for "Christmas" ? To rail against how folks have taken Christ out of Christmas.
But not me. Because the key I think, is to not get the holiday mixed up with the holy day. To not confuse a secular celebration in December with what is for some like me, a spiritual exercise in the last month of the year. To not mistake gift giving with the gift of Christ, which Christians believe is the greatest gift God has ever given to the world. Both celebrations are great but each is now completely separate from the other. And I'm ok with that.
So here's my Christmas and Holiday personal declaration. There was never any war on Christmas to begin with. I don't need the culture to affirm or somehow support my personal religious beliefs, my idea of Christmas, the holy days of Christmas. That's why I go to church and practice my faith. That's my Christmas. I really don't care what folks call their tree. That's their business, not mine. I don't expect a government sponsored event like Rhode Island's state tree lighting to include anything religious. "Holiday" away Governor Chafee.
If I had a child I'd want them to sing "Silent Night", not at a school assembly, but in church, on the night of the 24th, so they'd know what the song is really talking about. Religion should be learned in the home and in houses of worship, not school. If I want to see a nativity scene I'll look at the one in my church or my living room. I don't need one on the town green to somehow buck up my faith. If I want my nieces or Godchildren to be introduced to the Christmas story, the place to do this is not the mall. It's in a faith community.
So Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Both work for me. Both usher in a great time of year. But each is finally separate from the other. One is personal, private and pious. One is public, fun-filled and busy. Thank God for the holidays and the holy days. It's all good. Let's declare a truce in the war and then be on our way to the 25th!
For every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction. That's how the natural world works. That's how all of life works too. Push here and something else pokes out there. Make one choice and its effects ripple out both for good and for bad. Say "yes!" to one thing and you may have to say "no!" to another.
So if Bay Staters can wade through all the sunny and optimistic claims about what "good" will come about now that Las Vegas is coming right here to Massachusetts, we also need to face into the "bad" of this decision too. The reaction in response to this action. I mean we didn't really think we could make a deal with the devil of gambling interests and not pay a price, did we?
Yes, we'll see thousands of construction and other jobs created by the gambling boom. State and local government coffers will be filled up with new revenue. But other negative actions will happen too. Massachusetts is already number one nationwide in per capita spending on the Lottery, some $806 per person each year, and casinos will no doubt add to this number in overall gambling expenditures. So who and what loses in this zero sum game?
There may be less money for charity. Why gamble on the offering plate when you can get better odds at a slot machine, right? Or perhaps less money for basic household expenses like a mortgage or food on the table or college tuition. More poor souls becoming gambling addicts. You know what day is often the busiest at Connecticut casinos? The day after Social Security checks come in. Then there's the traffic. And the increased crime. And the huge potential for government corruption, as millions of dollars pour into the state in the years ahead, from folks who really don't care much about Massachusetts. As if our leaders need more encouragement to be on the take.
Yet this is how it is with the choices we make in life. Everything is finally interconnected. So when our state representative votes "yea" on casinos, a young family in his district is forced to move so that their children don't have to live right next door to honky-tonk central. Makes me wonder just how close that same state representative will live to a casino.
Faith traditions teach us of the truth that all our life decisions, large and small, always come back to visit us. "Send out your bread upon the waters, for after many days you will get it back." (Ecclesiastes 11:1); "…whatever a man sows, that he will also reap." (Galatians 6). This law of reaction just plays true whether in the world of physics or the world of the soul. No getting around it.
There are no free rides finally. No do overs. No "get out of jail free" cards when we make decisions. Every choice we make, whether ethical, moral, spiritual, communal or personal: these all matter. Every choice we make evokes an equal and sometimes powerful reaction. I think we need to be reminded of this reality. It's so easy to forget.
Remember when folks thought they could just keep pulling money out of their homes in equity loans because the market was just going to keep on going up? That bread came back. Remember when Wall Street was sure they could just keep packaging and repackaging toxic debt in an insane game of musical chairs? The music stopped. Remember when Uncle Sam thought he could just keep printing and spending money, tomorrow be damned? We'll reap what we sow in this case, at some point, absolutely. Remember when Massachusetts decided to chase after the siren song of gambling? Those seeds are now in the ground. Now we get to watch them grow, for better and for worse.
So here's a sure bet. Every choice we make creates an equal and opposite reaction. No gambling on that proposition. Our bets are now on the table. The hand has been dealt. I just pray and hope that the house doesn't win. Because if it does, we just may end up losing in our roll of the dice on casino gambling.


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Type 316 stainless steel has better corrosion resistance to most chemicals, salts and acids and is more resistant to marine atmosphere because of an addition of 2.0 to 3.0% molybdenum.
Type 316 stainless steel has better corrosion resistance to most chemicals, salts and acids and is more resistant to marine atmosphere because of an addition of 2.0 to 3.0% molybdenum. This addition improves the corrosion resistance of austenitic steels and imparts hot strength characteristics. Another valuable property of Type 316 stainless steel is high creep strength at elevated temperatures. Fabrication characteristics of Type 316 are similar to Type 302 or 304.
Type 316 stainless steel has extensive use in chemical processing equipment when better corrosion resistance is required than is afforded by chromium-nickel steels. Also 316 is specified for use with high purity products where product contamination must be held to a minimum. Typical applications are Food Processing, Chemical Processing, Photographic, Pharmaceutical and Textile Finishing Equipment and Marine Exterior Trim.
Type 316L stainless steel is available in select gages. Please inquire with our customer service representative.


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Aljaba puede referirse a:

 Aljaba, contenedor portátil para transportar flechas.
 Aljaba o Chilco, planta de flor del género Fuchsia.
 Kynos Aljaba, tractocamión pesado con capacidades todoterreno fabricado en España para usos militares.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The Statistics package is a collection of tools for mathematical statistics and data analysis. The package supports a wide range of common statistical tasks such as quantitative and graphical data analysis, simulation, and curve fitting. Also included is the Data Analysis Assistant, a graphical interface to the data analysis tools in the Statistics package. It can be accessed from the Tools>Assistants menu or using the InteractiveDataAnalysis command.
In addition to standard data analysis tools the Statistics package provides a wide range of symbolic and numeric tools for computing with random variables. The package supports over 35 major probability distributions and provides facilities for defining new distributions.
Much of the functionality in the Statistics package is accessible through context menus. Context-sensitive functionality is available when selecting any data container (such as a Vector, list, or Array), known probability distributions (such as Normal(1,2)), or random variables.
Some related functionality regarding time series is available through the TimeSeriesAnalysis package.
For additional examples detailing the uses of the Statistics package, see the following example worksheets.
Below is the list of primary topics. See also Statistics[Commands] for an alphabetical list of Statistics commands.
Over 35 continuous and discrete probability distributions as well as tools for creating new distributions. Here is the list of relevant commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[Distributions] help page.
A wide range of functions for computing descriptive statistics. This includes location, dispersion and shape statistics, moments and cumulants, as well as several data summary and tabulation commands. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[DescriptiveStatistics] help page.
Tools for creating and manipulating random variables as well as functions for computing their densities, moments, generating functions and other quantities. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[RandomVariables] help page.
Various statistical plots such as box plots, bar charts, histograms, probability plots, scatterplots, etc. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[Visualization] help page.
Optimized algorithms for simulating from all supported distributions as well as tools for creating custom random number generators, parametric and non-parametric bootstrap. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[Simulation] help page.
Tools for fitting linear and nonlinear models to data points and performing regression analysis. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[Regression] help page.
Tools for manipulating likelihood functions, maximum likelihood estimation, kernel density estimation, bootstrap. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[Estimation] help page.
Tools for manipulating statistical data. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[DataManipulation] help page.
Data smoothing functions including moving averages, exponential smoothing, linear filters, etc. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available in the Statistics[DataSmoothing] help page.
Common tools for performing hypothesis testing and inference, including several parametric and non-parametric tests. Here is the list of available commands.
More information is available at the Statistics[Tests] help page.


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Murtuz Alasgarov
Murtuz Najaf oglu Alasgarov (Azerbaijani: Murtuz Nəcəf oğlu Ələsgərov; September 20, 1928 – August 7, 2012), also spelled as Murtuz Aleskerov, was an Azerbaijani politician who served as the Speaker of the National Assembly of Azerbaijan from 1996 to 2005.
Alasgarov was born on September 20, 1928 in Ganja, Azerbaijan. He graduated from Law Department of the Azerbaijan State University. From 1954, he was the Senior Professor and then Dean of the Law Department of Azerbaijan State University, from 1957 he was the Dean of International Law Department. From 1965, he was the Director of the Department of Constitutional Law at the same university. In 1993–1996, he was the Rector of Baku State University. Alasgarov was also an Honorary Doctor of the Kiev State University.
Political career
He was elected to the National Assembly of Azerbaijan in the 1995 parliamentary elections and re-elected in the 2000 parliamentary elections. On October 16, 1996 he was elected the Speaker of the National Assembly by the members of the parliament and re-elected on November 24, 2000. He was then replaced by Ogtay Asadov in December 2005. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, Alasgarov was re-elected to the parliament from Garadag district of Baku.
This page contains text from Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia - https://wn.com/Murtuz_Alasgarov
Alasgarov, Murtuz Filmography
Play in Full Screen Sonuncu sahid
2004, role: actor

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Home » iKON held a warm Christmas party and delivered their hearts to fans, "Hope we can spend more time together next year"
iKON held a warm Christmas party and delivered their hearts to fans, "Hope we can spend more time together next year"
iKON had a good time communicating with global fans through a warm Christmas party.
Videos of "iKON-ON: 2021 iKONystmas Party" released on December 25th and 26th showed iKON members sharing various stories in a comfortable and warm atmosphere.
iKON made the viewers smile and give pleasant reactions to the moments of the members doing role play with witty jokes and presenting gifts to each other as manitos.
In addition, they also wrote Christmas cards for iKONC (iKON's fandom name).
iKON said, "We can't put everything in these letters, but we hope you will be able to feel our hearts even for a little bit", adding, "Hope that we can spend more time with you at concerts and fan signing events in 2022. We always love you. We really want to meet you in person quickly."
Since their debut in 2015, iKON has produced numerous hit songs, including "KILLING ME", "LOVE SCENARIO", "MY TYPE", "RHYTHM TA", "Why Why Why", etc., maintaining their popularity as one of the KPOP representatives.
iKON left, 1st girl group after BLACKPINK is coming: YG's lineup change
From drugs to premarital pregnancy, "YG's problematic idols" iKON and BIGBANG all ended up leaving
iKON is reportedly discussing to sign with 143 Entertainment after leaving YG
iKON's exclusive contract expired, is leaving YG after 7 years together
YG Entertainment announces surprise news of a national tour after 4 years
B.I "I wish to be remembered as an artist with timeless music like the Beatles"


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Regionalization of a Rainfall-Runoff Model: Limitations and Potentials
Assessment of Agricultural Drought Considering the Hydrological Cycle and Crop Phenology in the Korean Peninsula
Paz, I.
Willinger, B.
Gires, A.
Alves de Souza, B.
Monier, L.
Cardinal, H.
Tisserand, B.
Tchiguirinskaia, I.
Schertzer, D.
Igor Paz
1,2,* ,
Bernard Willinger
Auguste Gires
Bianca Alves de Souza
Laurent Monier
Hervé Cardinal
Bruno Tisserand
Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia
Daniel Schertzer
HMCO, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, University of Paris-Est, 77455 Champs-sur-Marne, France
Instituto Militar de Engenharia, Praça General Tibúrcio 80, Praia Vermelha, Rio de Janeiro 22290-270, Brazil
Veolia Eau Ile-de-France, 91300 Massy, France
Direction Technique et Performance, Veolia, 30 rue Madeleine Vionnet, 93300 Aubervilliers, France
SIAVB, Syndicat Intercommunal pour l'Assainissement de la Vallée de la Bièvre, 91370 Verrières-le-Buisson, France
Veolia Recherche et Innovation, 78600 Maisons-Laffitte, France
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Study for Ungauged Catchments—Data, Models and Uncertainties)
Recent studies have highlighted the need for high resolution rainfall measurements for better modelling of urban and peri-urban catchment responses. In this work, we used a fully-distributed model called "Multi-Hydro" to study small-scale rainfall variability and its hydrological impacts. The catchment modelled is a semi-urban area located in the southwest region of Paris, an area that has been previously partially validated. At this time, we make some changes to the model, henceforth using its drainage system globally, and we investigate the influence of small-scale rainfall variability by modelling three rainfall events with two different rainfall data inputs: the C-band radar data provided by Météo-France at a 1 km × 1 km × 5 min resolution, and the new X-band radar (recently installed at Ecole des Ponts, France) data at a resolution of 250 m × 250 m × 3.41 min, thereby presenting the gains of better resolution (with the help of Universal Multifractals). Finally, we compare the Multi-Hydro hydrological results with those obtained using an operational semi-distributed model called "Optim Sim" over the same area to revalidate Multi-Hydro modelling, and discuss the model's limitations and the impacts of data quality and resolution, observing the difficulties associated with semi-distributed models when accounting the spatial variability of weather radar data. This work concludes that it may be useful in future to improve rainfall data acquisition, aiming for better spatio-temporal resolution (now achieved by the weather dual-polarized X-band radars) and data quality when considering small-scale rainfall variability, and to merge deterministic, fully-distributed and stochastic models into a hybrid model which would be capable of taking this small-scale rainfall variability into account.
small scale; rainfall variability; X-band radar; fully-distributed model; multi-hydro; multifractals
The urban population in 2014 accounted for 54% of the total global population [1]; by the deadline of the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs [2]) in 2030, 60% of all people will reside in cities, proportionally twice that of 1950 [3]. Some of the changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been linked to human influences, including the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions [4]. This growing urbanization, which typically creates impervious surface areas with hydraulically efficient drainage results in much faster drainage than in natural areas [5,6], and consequently, has the potential to produce huge floods, threatening human security and infrastructure integrity [7,8,9,10,11]. In order to manage its impacts and their consequences, continuous simulations are required [12,13].
The study of water flows in urbanized catchments is crucial to saving human lives and for environmental protection and infrastructure safety, and has clearly been gaining in importance over the past few decades [11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19]. However, the high heterogeneity of urban areas, difficulties in measuring the physical parameters and defining the limits of the catchment, and the interaction of hydrological processes on various spatio-temporal scales make hydrological modelling a complex task [11]. Even with the recent increases of computational power and resolution of distributed data, such as altitude, precipitation and land use, understanding hydrological behavior remains a challenge.
In addition, as fine spatio-temporal resolution of rainfall data becomes mandatory for accurate model validation and exploitation [11,18,19], weather radar data have been increasingly applied to hydrological models due to their ability to spatio-temporally estimate rainfall fields, compared to the common sparseness of rain gauge networks. Although they do not directly measure precipitation rates (as rain gauges do), meteorological radars provide spatiotemporal precipitation estimates. However, these estimates, initially based on the reflectivity, have some significant uncertainties. To reduce these uncertainties, especially for high rainfall intensities, recent dual polarization technology has been used to directly estimate rainfall intensities through specific differential phase (KDP) values [20,21,22].
Furthermore, there are different types of hydrological models; those dealing with urban stormwater are usually characterized as semi-distributed or fully-distributed models [23,24]. The former generally comprizes conceptual models divided in sub-catchments requiring careful calibration. The latter, usually physically based and generally more realistic, are two-dimensionally-discretized with a land use unit being attributed to each surface pixel. Considering developments in computer capabilities and the availability of remote sensing data, the use of distributed hydrological models to better take into account rainfall variability is becoming more widespread [11].
This work presents a hydrological study of the Jouy-en-Josas catchment, a 3 km2 semi-urbanized area located in the southwest region of Paris. Firstly, we took the hydrological modelling of this case study previously calibrated by Gires et al. [25] using the Multi-Hydro model [24,26,27], a physically-based, fully-distributed model currently under development at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech which is able to account for the high heterogeneity of urban and semi-urban regions and rainfall spatio-temporal variability on different scales. Then, we made some improvements to the model and obtained new hydrological simulations for three more recent events, comparing C- and X-band radar rainfall data with the help of a statistical analysis using Universal Multifractals [28]. We can subdivide this work approach into three main parts. The first consists of improving the generation of rainfall rates introduced into the model; the second comprizes considering the totality of the sewer system of the catchment (Gires et al. [25] had previously considered only 60% of it); and the third is an analysis of the hydrological impacts of small-scale rainfall variability using X- and C-band radar data at different resolutions. Finally, we compared the results of the Multi-Hydro hydrological simulations at the outfall of the Jouy-en-Josas catchment to those obtained using operational software (Optim Sim) managed by the SIAVB ("Syndicat Intercommunal pour l'Assainissement de la Vallée de la Bièvre", a local authority in charge of the upper Bièvre River catchment) to revalidate the totality of the catchment sewer system. This comparison highlights the models' limitations and the impacts of data quality and resolution, bringing into the discussion the difficulties associated with semi-distributed models when considering the spatial variability of weather radar data.
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the case study, selected storm events and rainfall data, and a statistical analysis of the rainfall data is performed with the help of Universal Multifractals. In Section 3, the hydrological modelling is detailed. Finally, a discussion is presented in Section 4.
The site of Jouy-en-Josas is a sub-catchment of the Bièvre catchment, located in the South-West of the Paris region at the convergence point of three counties: Essone, Yvelines and Hauts-de-Seine. The Bièvre is a 33 km-long river and an tributary of the Seine River. The first 18 km upstream (from Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines to Antony) is open, before being channeled into the SIAAP ("Syndicat Interdépartemental pour l'Assainissement de l'Agglomération Parisienne", a French public administrative institution that manages metropolitan Paris sewer system) network with outflow limited to 12 m3/s by convention. The Bièvre catchment has an area of approximately 110 km2 and currently houses around 130,000 inhabitants. It encompasses the 18 km upstream part of the Bièvre River and another 15 km of its tributaries, and has been related to the main floods of the Seine River in the past century. The most well-known occurred in January 1910, when hundreds of streets were flooded and over 14,000 buildings were affected in Paris [29]. In the Bièvre Valley specifically, there were two other major floods with catastrophic consequences: 1973 and 1982. In the latter, in only three hours, 110 mm precipitation was recorded over the Bièvre Valley, of which 80 mm occurred in just 40 minutes. At that time, it was estimated that 10 million m3 of water left as run-off, 2 million m3 discharged downstream, 500,000 m3 was stored in ponds and 7.5 million m3 invaded the valley. The Jouy-en-Josas sub-catchment modelled in this paper with Multi-Hydro has an area of 3.017 km2, and borders the Bièvre River (mostly on its left bank and with a small portion on its right). Figure 1: on the bottom, the Bièvre catchment divided into 27 sub-catchments; on the top, the Jouy-en-Josas area, which is mostly composed of the JOUY2 sub-catchment and a smaller woodland area of the JOUY1 sub-catchment.
2.2. Storm Events and Rainfall Data
In this work, we chose three rainfall events for study: 12–13/09/2015, 16/09/2015 and 05–06/10/2015. In the months following the inauguration of the X-band radar at Ecole des Ponts (9 June, 2015 [30]), there was a protracted dry period. Nevertheless, in September 2015, two distinct weather phenomena arrived in France. The first and strongest (up to 389 mm was measured in Ardèche in 48 h) was a Mediterranean type episode, occurring on the 12–13 September 2015 (data source: Météo-France). The second (with 34.2 mm registered in Fontainebleau), occurring on 16 September 2015, caused particularly strong winds and storms around the Lyon region during the "Henri" cyclone (data source: Météo-France). We analyzed these two rainfall events, as well as another one which occurred on 5–6 October 2015; all three were chosen taking into account their hydrological impact on the SIAVB-Bièvre catchment in order to cover the most common meteorological situations in the region, combining stratiform and convective rainfall occurrences [31]. Additionally, these rainfall events lasted, in total, almost 90 h, and were deliberately not divided into several successive rainy periods, as this would artificially increase their numbers. This means that the chosen rainfall events are sufficiently representative for the purposes of this study.
Two different weather radar rainfall data were analyzed. One of them was from the Météo-France C-band radar located at Trappes, France. Météo-France provides a radar mosaic which covers the entire country, being a product initially of the Aramis project [32], and later, of the PANTHER project (Aramis New Technologies Hydrometeorology Extension and Renewal). The latter is, in fact, a network of 29 radars (Figure 2). However, as the farthest part of the studied catchment is about 25 km from the Trappes radar, we can consider that this one alone will contribute to the analyzed data.
This mosaic product has a temporal resolution of 5 min and a spatial one of 1 km. The data is obtained as reflectivity (dBZ) and then, after applying some filters and other post-treatments, it is transformed into rainfall intensity (R, in mm/h) using the Marshall-Palmer Z-R equation [33] with fixed parameters: a = 200 and b = 1.6.
Z = a R b
In addition, a real-time calibration is performed over the Météo-France C-band radar data, based on a comparison between local rain gauges and collocated radar pixels from the last 12 h, adjusting the 5-min radar rainfall accumulation field [34,35].
The second mentioned type of rainfall data to be analyzed was obtained from the Ecole des Ponts' recently installed X-band radar, located at Champs-sur-Marne, France. This was processed using software developed by Selex, called Rainbow (Selex copyright). There are a number of different products, but in this work we used the DPSRI (Dual Polarization Surface Rainfall Intensity) (see Figure 3 for illustration).
The spatio-temporal resolution is variable, mainly due to two factors: pulse width and angle step. Given the chosen parameters, the temporal resolution is 3.4 min and the spatial resolution is 250 m. In contrast to the C-band radar product, the DPSRI is obtained in rainfall intensity (R, in mm/h). In fact, for very low intensities, it is generated from dBZ (then the Z-R relationship is applied), while for higher intensities, it is generated from dual-polarization data (the Specific Differential Phase KDP) [36].
R = 19.63 | K D P | 0.823 , f o r Z > 35 d B Z a n d K D P > 0.3 ∘ / k m
A summary of the characteristics of the selected storm events and the studied radar data is presented in Table 1. Figure 4 displays the temporal evolution of the average rain rate and cumulative depth over the Jouy-en-Josas area, and Figure 5 presents the accumulated rainfall depths by radar pixels over the catchment area for the Météo-France C-band radar product and the ENPC X-band DPSRI.
For the 12–13 September event, the second peak of the total rainfall series (approximately 12 h after the beginning of the event) was higher for the X-band radar data. Nevertheless, the cumulative rainfall series are very similar for both radars (with the X-band one being even slightly higher). Additionally, with regard to the accumulated rainfall depths, one may verify the spatial intermittency of the pixel values for both radar data types (much more noticeable on the X-band ones). For the 16 September event, the C-band cumulative rainfall series was higher than the X-band one. At between 3 and 4 h into this event, the peak total rainfall series was higher for the C-band radar data. However, the peak at around 7 h was just slightly higher for the X-band radar data. Furthermore, there was a higher intermittency for the X-band accumulated rainfall depths. For the last event, there was an important difference in the beginning of the event in the cumulative rainfall series, with a cumulative depth that was approximately 6 mm higher for the C-band radar data, increasing to 8 mm at the end of the event. Nevertheless, the last three peaks in the total rainfall series were higher for the X-band radar data. Once again, the intermittency of the accumulated rainfall depths was more remarkable for the X-band radar data.
Additionally, unlike the work previously developed by Gires et al. [25], there were no more local measurements at the Pont de Pierre (see Figure 1) for the period of these three selected events. So, in order to compare the hydrological simulations, an operational software called Optim Sim (see Section 3.1.2)—managed by Veolia for the SIAVB in Massy (a small town inside the Bièvre Valley in the south of Paris region)—was used to simulate the same three events with the C- and X-band radar data and two other types of rainfall data: the SIAVB network of six rain gauges (Figure 1), and the CALAMAR ("CAlcul de LAMes d'eau à l'Aide du Radar" (Calculating Rain with the Aid of Radar)) product [37,38]. The latter is a system developed by RHEA SAS Company for treating (by gauge adjustment) and diffusing the radar data produced by Météo-France. The image calibration is done in such a way that a rain gauge and its corresponding radar image pixel show approximately the same rainfall value. The operational spatio-temporal resolution is 1 km2 and 5 min. It provides real-time measurement sand also enables a rainfall event to be reconstructed through its off-line mode [39].
For the Bièvre River catchment, the CALAMAR images are firstly calibrated in a broader area (left side of Figure 6) and then recalibrated in real-time using the six SIAVB rain gauges over the Bièvre catchment area (right side of Figure 6). Furthermore, it is important to point out that the operational software Optim Sim has been calibrated over the whole Bièvre catchment using the CALAMAR (which will be used in this work as reference for the comparison of hydrological results in Section 3.2) and SIAVB rain gauge rainfall data.
2.3. Multifractal Analysis
Rainfall has been widely analyzed as a multifractal field [17,28,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53]. Schertzer and Lovejoy [28] used an approach introducing the formalism of turbulence (modelling the rainfall variability by a multiplicative cascade process, assuming the transfer of energy from larger to smaller scales, similar to what happens in turbulence models) and developed the Universal Multifractal (UM) model.
Considering ε λ , a multifractal field at the resolution λ ( = L l ) defined by the ratio between the outer scale of the phenomenon and the observation scale, the statistical moment of its qth power exhibits scaling behavior [28]:
〈 ε λ q 〉 ≈ λ K ( q )
where K ( q ) is the scaling moment function, < > denotes the mathematical ensemble average, and ≈ means asymptotic equivalence.
In the framework of universal multifractals (UM), the K ( q ) function is convex [54], and for conservative fields ( 〈 ε λ 〉 = 1 , i.e., K ( 1 ) = 0 ) is described by just two independent UM parameters: α and C 1 . α ∈ [ 0 , 2 ] is the Levy index measuring the degree of multifractality (i.e., the deviation from multifractality), where α = 0 corresponds to a monofractal field and α = 2 to the extreme log-normal case. C 1 ∈ [ 0 , d ] , with d being the dimension of the support ( d = 2 in this case), is the mean intermittency of the field ( C 1 = 0 for a homogeneous field). K ( q ) is given by:
K ( q ) = { C 1 α − 1 ( q α − q ) , α ≠ 1 C 1 q log ( q ) , α = 1
The parameters α and C 1 are estimated by using the double trace moment (DTM) technique [55]. This technique is particularly valuable in the framework of UM, based on the fact that the scaling moment function K ( q , η ) of the field ε λ ( η ) , obtained by degrading the η th power of the field at the finest resolution, is easily expressed in terms of α :
〈 ( ε λ ( η ) ) q 〉 ≈ λ K ( q , η ) = λ η α K ( q )
Thus, α can be estimated as the slope of the linear part of the log-log graphic of K ( q , η ) by η for fixed q [42]. Finally, considering that K ( q , 1 ) is the intersection of the slope with l o g ( η ) = 0 , it is possible to determine C 1 .
In this section, we estimated the UM parameters α and C 1 over a 64 km × 64 km area for each of the three events from both the C- and X-band radar data studied in this work independently, by using the DTM method on ensemble analysis over the entirety of the rainfall events (with each time step being considered as an independent realization) (Table 2).
As displayed in Table 2, the multifractality of α is considerably lower for C-band than for X-band radar data per event, for all three events. This indicates that the X-band radar rainfall fields present greater peaks than the C-band ones, reinforcing the idea that enhancement of the radar data resolution improves the ability to detect high rainfall intensities. On the other hand, the mean singularity C 1 estimates are very similar for both the C- and X-band radar data per event, which would mean similar rainfall cumulus over the 64 km × 64 km area. However, the lower rainfall cumulus, especially for the last two events, for the X-band compared to the C-band radar data, might be related to a difference in linear pre-factors, as suggested by Alves de Souza et al. [56].
3.1. Hydrological Modelling
3.1.1. Multi-Hydro Description and Implementation
Multi-Hydro is a fully-distributed model which is under development at Ecole des Ponts [24,26,27]. It is an interface platform that allows interaction to occur between four open source packages (surface, ground, drainage and rainfall modules) that simulate different parts of the water cycle in urban catchments. The TREX (Two Dimensional Runoff Export, [57]) surface module is used, a model developed at the Colorado University. The ground module employed is the VS2DT (Variably Saturated 2-Diimensional flow and Solute Transport, [58]) model, developed by USGS (the United States Geological Survey). The drainage module is based on SWMM (Storm Water Management Model, [59]), developed by the US Environmental Agency.
Finally, the rainfall module enables Multi-Hydro to work with different types of rainfall data (rain gauges, radar and downscaled radar data). However, the VS2DT model was not connected for this study because of its time-consuming computation.
The Jouy-en-Josas case study was modelled with a 10-m spatial resolution; the land use area (Figure 7) was generated by considering only the priority rule [24,56]. The storm water sewer system (Figure 8) is discharged into the Bièvre River, which was also modelled as a pipe. Additionally, in contrast to the primary work of Gires et al. [25] that considered the measurement point of water depth at the "Pont de Pierre" (which has been disabled since 2014), the outlet of the catchment was taken here as the comparison point. This therefore validates the whole catchment at this time, and not only the previous 60% of it, as was the case in Gires et al. [25].
Finally, there is a major modification in the rainfall generation code compared to that used by Gires et al. [25]. We identified that the mosaic C-band data [34,60] furnished by Météo-France (the French national meteorological service) has an irregular spatial distribution (see Figure 9), despite the fact that each data pixel has a 1 km × 1 km square shape and is North-South oriented. The finer the model resolution, the greater the impact of this pixel spatial offset; therefore, we generated the rainfall rate input files by getting intersection contributions of the C-band radar data pixels to the 10 m × 10 m-sized model pixels (as in Equation (6)).
R i 10 m , j 10 m = ∑ i 1 k m , j 1 k m [ R i 1 k m , j 1 k m . ( A i 10 m , j 10 m ∩ A i 1 k m , j 1 k m ) ] ∑ i 1 k m , j 1 k m ( A i 10 m , j 10 m ∩ A i 1 k m , j 1 k m )
where, R i 10 m , j 10 m is the rainfall rate that we want to calculate for each Multi-Hydro 10 m × 10 m-sized pixel; R i 1 k m , j 1 k m is the rainfall rate of each pixel of the C-band radar data; A i 10 m , j 10 m is the area of each Multi-Hydro pixel; and A i 1 k m , j 1 k m is the area of each pixel of the C-band radar data.
Thus, to generate the X-band radar rainfall rate files, a process of getting intersection contributions to the aforementioned 10 m × 10 m-sized model pixels was applied. Nevertheless, in Equation (6), we changed R i 1 k m , j 1 k m by R i 250 m , j 250 m and A i 1 k m , j 1 k m by A i 250 m , j 250 m , due to the resolution of the X-band radar data.
3.1.2. Optim Sim/InfoWorks and the Bièvre Catchment
The SIAVB cooperates with Veolia in managing the whole Bièvre catchment, by using an operational (previously calibrated with CALAMAR and SIAVB rain gauge rainfall data) semi-distributed model called Optim Sim [53]. It is an "offline" (disconnected to the system) simulation model which mimics the operation of the real-time optimization tool, and couples it to InfoWorks, matching its nodes and lines with InfoWorks' nodes and pipelines. Using the "simulation test mode", it is possible to replay past events with four rainfall data types (C-band radar data, X-band radar data, CALAMAR data or SIAVB rain gauge data) and to simulate each sub-catchment hydrological contribution for the whole catchment.
In this work, given the recent lack of local measurements at the Pont-de-Pierre, we used the flood depth contributions of the sub-catchment JOUY2 (corresponding to the Jouy-en-Josas fully-distributed sub-catchment) to compare to (and revalidate) those obtained with Multi-Hydro.
3.2. Hydrological Simulations
After preparing all the input data, Multi-Hydro was employed to simulate the three events using both C- and X-band radar rainfall data. Then, the hydrological results of the Multi-Hydro simulations without amount inflow were compared to the results of the Optim Sim simulations over the sub-catchment JOUY2, using the C- and X-band radar data, the CALAMAR product data and the SIAVB network of six rain gauges at the outlet of the catchment (Figure 10, Figure 11 and Figure 12).
One may note that the temporal evolution of the main peaks of the simulated water height is mostly in agreement for both models and for all data types. Given the lack of local measurements, and the fact that the semi-distributed model Optim Sim of the Bièvre catchment has been calibrated, these results seem to partially validate the fully-distributed model Multi-Hydro over the whole case study area. Nevertheless, the Multi-Hydro simulations present significantly higher variability, with a characteristic smoothing of the Optim Sim simulations, especially for the event of the 16 September 2015, which was expected because of the intrinsic averaging process for the rainfall data in the case of the semi-distributed model.
Furthermore, in order to statistically compare the hydrological results, we used three standard metric parameters: the correlation coefficient ( C o r r ∈ [ − 1 , 1 ] ), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ( N a s h ∈ ( − ∞ , 1 ] ) and the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE). Figure 13 presents the statistical analysis of all simulations for the three events, taking those performed with the CALAMAR rainfall data as references.
For the event of the 12–13 September 2015, the simulations using Multi-Hydro were very similar for both C- and X-band radar data, following the tiny difference of the total rainfall series (see Figure 4). By comparing to the Optim Sim simulations (especially those using the same C- and X-band radar data as Multi-Hydro), it was determined that in the first water height peak (from 6 to 10 h of the event duration) the Optim Sim simulations were higher than the Multi-Hydro ones; in the second peak (from 11 to 15 h of the event duration), the Optim Sim X-band simulation was closer to the Multi-Hydro one, while the Optim Sim C-band and pluviometers simulations were similar to each other and higher than both Multi-Hydro simulations; finally, the Optim Sim CALAMAR simulation was the highest one. In the third and last peak (from 28 to 35 h of the event duration), all the Optim Sim simulations were similar and slightly higher than the Multi-Hydro ones. This analysis is corroborated by the statistical one when the Optim Sim CALAMAR simulations are taken as the basis of comparison. Both Multi-Hydro simulations present medium values of correlation ( 0.6 < C o r r < 0.8 ), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ( 0.2 < N a s h < 0.3 ) and Root-Mean-Square Error ( 0.25 < RMSE < 0.3 ). On the other hand, the statistical comparisons for the other three Optim Sim simulations (using X- and C-band radar and rain gauge rainfall data) obtained better values ( 0.85 < C o r r < 1 ; 0.7 < N a s h < 1 and 0.09 < RMSE < 0.17 ); this was expected, since these simulations were performed with the same hydrological model as that used as a basis.
For the 16 September 2015 event, the Multi-Hydro simulations match each other very well along the whole event, with a slight difference in the first peak (between 3 and 4 h of the event duration) where the simulated water height was a bit higher for the C-band than for the X-band (following the total rainfall difference; see Figure 4). When comparing with the Optim Sim simulations, there was a greater difference between both C-band water heights compared to the X-band ones. In addition, compared to the Optim Sim simulations obtained using CALAMAR and pluviometers data (for which the model was calibrated), the Multi-Hydro simulations were more coherent than the Optim Sim ones using C- and X-band radar data. Furthermore, between the first two Optim Sim water height peaks (from 3 to 8 h of the event duration), the Multi-Hydro simulations present intermediary peaks (which is in agreement with the total rainfall series presented in Figure 4), whereas they were smoothed by the Optim Sim simulations, which highlights the higher capacity of the fully-distributed model Multi-Hydro to take into account rainfall spatio-temporal variability. When taking the Optim Sim simulations using CALAMAR rainfall data as a reference for the statistical comparison, one may note a high overall correlation ( C o r r > 0.8 ) and small Root-Mean-Square Errors ( 0.04 < RMSE < 0.12 ) in all simulations. Nevertheless, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency estimated for the Optim Sim simulation using the C-band radar data was very small ( N a s h ≈ − 0.9 ), whereas the other simulations presented better values ( 0.25 < N a s h < 0.9 ).
Finally, for the event of 5–6 October 2015, the Multi-Hydro simulated water heights are slightly higher on average for the C-band radar in the first peak, which is also related to the need of a better choice of the a-b parameters for low intensities in the X-band radar data (see the total rainfall difference in Figure 4), whereas the last peaks are marginally higher for the X-band radar data. In comparing to the Optim Sim simulations, in the first water height peak, the Optim Sim simulations were a bit higher than the Multi-Hydro ones, with both X-band simulations matching better to each other than the C-band ones. At the end of the event (second and third peaks), the simulated water heights were comparable between both models with great matching, alternating which one was providing the highest values, except for the rain gauge simulations between 20 and 23 h, which are a bit higher than the others. The statistical analysis of these hydrological simulations, taking those using CALAMAR rainfall data as basis of comparison, confirms the presented results. Similar to the first event, the Multi-Hydro simulations also displayed intermediary values of correlation ( 0.6 < C o r r < 0.8 ) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ( 0.2 < N a s h < 0.5 ). Nevertheless, the Root-Mean-Square Error obtained ( 0.13 < RMSE < 0.17 ) was significantly better than that of the first event. Furthermore, the other three Optim Sim simulations (using X-band radar, C-band radar and rain gauge rainfall data) presented better statistical values ( 0.9 < C o r r < 1 ; 0.7 < N a s h < 0.9 and 0.06 < RMSE < 0.09 ), as expected.
4. Discussions
The Jouy-en-Josas catchment, a 3 km2, semi-urbanized area located in the southwest region of Paris, was modelled with the physically-based, fully-distributed model Multi-Hydro using as rainfall inputs both Météo-France C-band radar data, at a 1 km × 1 km × 5 min resolution, and the ENPC dual-polarized X-band radar data, at a resolution of 250 m × 250 m × 3.41 min. The results were then compared to the hydrological simulations obtained with the operational hydrological software Optim Sim (based on the conceptually-based semi-distributed model InfoWorks) using four different sources of rainfall data: the Météo-France C-band radar data, the ENPC X-band radar data, the CALAMAR C-band radar product and the SIAVB network of six rain gauges. The main objectives in this paper were: (i) to find a way to compare the fully-distributed physically based Multi-Hydro model and the semi-distributed conceptually based Optim Sim model, over a semi-urban area with steep slopes; (ii) to improve and revalidate the Multi-Hydro modelling of the catchment by considering the totality of the catchment sewer system; and (iii) to analyze the impact of rainfall spatio-temporal variability using C- and X-band radar data at different resolutions.
The difficulties associated with performing really accurate hydrological modelling were evident in this work, mostly due to model limitations and data quality and resolution. Two types of deterministic hydrological models were studied here. Semi-distributed conceptual models (represented here by Optim Sim/InfoWorks) present evident difficulties when taking into account the spatial variability of weather radar data, averaging them over big (sub-catchment) areas and consequently smoothing the hydrological results. Furthermore, they need exhaustive calibrations to be performed after each modification of the sub-catchment division or of the sewer system, or even after important land-use changes. Additionally, the size (and/or number) of the sub-catchments is questionable, relative to the type and resolution of rainfall data used as the input to the model [31]. On the other hand, fully-distributed physical models (e.g., Multi-Hydro) can better consider the spatial variability of the rainfall data, as they use information (such as topography, land use etc.) distributed in pixels, making spatial resolution adaptation possible, and take advantage of the use of physical measurable parameters to enhance the calibration process. Nevertheless, preparation of the input data requires complete information, especially for a complex sewer system. In this work, after performing the Multi-Hydro simulations considering the totality of the catchment's sewer system, and comparing with the Optim Sim simulations, it was possible to note higher intermittency and faster responses of the Multi-Hydro simulated heights.
Moreover, the rainfall data play a big role in the reliability of the hydrological simulations. The spatio-temporal resolution, the choice of the best products and data treatment are some of the factors that have an impact on the hydrological results. Throughout this paper, it was also possible to note that the Multi-Hydro simulations using the X-band radar rainfall data sometimes performed better, measuring higher peaks of rainfall rates and generating, in most cases, higher water heights, even without any absolute calibration, highlighting the advantages of better resolution. Furthermore, the X-band radar data simulations were able to generate water heights which were closer in both hydrological models, whereas the simulations using C-band radar data induced more differences between the models, which corroborates the impact of higher rainfall data resolutions. This was confirmed by the statistical analyses performed with the help of Universal Multifractals, where the estimated multifractality value α was considerably higher for the X- than for C-band radar data for all three events. However, there is an urgent need to study the best a-b parameters (see Equation (1)) to be used in each situation, as they directly impact low intensity estimates.
Finally, a different approach may be taken in the future: to merge deterministic (e.g., the fully-distributed physically-based Multi-Hydro model) and stochastic models (also named "empirical models", they directly relate the input data with the output results via a statistical way), would yield a hybrid model.
I.P. wrote the paper; I.T., D.S. and B.T. conceived and designed the study; I.T. and D.S. collected the ENPC X-band radar data; B.W. and H.C. gave access to the Optim Sim hydrological model; I.P. prepared the input data for all simulations; I.P. and B.A.S. performed the Multi-Hydro simulations; B.W., I.P., A.G. and L.M. performed the Optim Sim hydrological simulations; I.P. performed the multifractal analyses; I.P., A.G., L.M., I.T. and D.S. analyzed all the results; B.W., A.G., B.A.S., L.M., H.C., B.T., I.T. and D.S. revised the paper.
This research was partially funded by the CHAIR "HYDROLOGY FOR RESILIENT CITIES" endowed by Veolia, and by the DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF THE BRAZILIAN ARMY.
The authors greatly acknowledge partial financial supports of the Chair "Hydrology for resilient cities" endowed by Veolia, and of the Department of Science and Technology of the Brazilian Army. The authors are thankful to M Bernard Urban (Météo-France) for providing access to the C-band radar data and documentation in the framework of the INTERREG NWE RainGain project.
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Figure 1. Representation of the Bièvre catchment divided into 27 sub-catchments with six rain gauges represented by red dots (bottom) and the Jouy-en-Josas area (top).
Figure 2. The Météo-France radar network (courtesy Météo-France).
Figure 3. Icon of the standard Rainbow software (Selex copyright): DPSRI product of rainfall intensity.
Figure 4. Time evolution of rain rate (top) and cumulative depth (bottom) over the whole Jouy-en-Josas sub-catchment area for the two data types (C-band, in green; and X-band, in blue) for the three events: 12–13 September 2015 (left), 16 September 2015 (centre) and 5–6 October 2015 (right).
Figure 5. Accumulated rainfall depths by radar pixels over the Jouy-en-Josas sub-catchment area for both the C-and X-band radar data for the three studied events.
Figure 6. Illustration of a CALAMAR image (©Veolia) over the Ile-de-France region (left) and zoomed in over the Bièvre catchment (right).
Figure 7. Land use of Jouy-en-Josas area [25].
Figure 8. Sewer system network of Jouy-en-Josas area.
Figure 9. C-band radar data pixels distribution.
Figure 10. Comparison of Multi-Hydro water heights at the catchment outlet using X- (solid blue line) and C-band radar (solid green line) data compared to Optim Sim simulations with X-band radar (dashed blue line), C-band radar (dashed green line), CALAMAR (solid black line) and rain gauges (dashed black line) rainfall data for the 12/13-09-2015 event.
Figure 11. Comparison of Multi-Hydro water heights at the catchment outlet using X- (solid blue line) and C-band radar (solid green line) data compared to Optim Sim simulations with X-band radar (dashed blue line), C-band radar (dashed green line), CALAMAR (solid black line) and rain gauges (dashed black line) rainfall data for the 16-09-2015 event.
Figure 12. Comparison of Multi-Hydro water heights at the catchment's outlet using X- (solid blue line) and C-band radar (solid green line) data compared to Optim Sim simulations with X-band radar (dashed blue line), C-band radar (dashed green line), CALAMAR (solid black line) and rain gauges (dashed black line) rainfall data for the 05/06-10-2015 event.
Figure 13. Statistical analysis of all hydrological results, with respect to the simulations using the CALAMAR rainfall data for the three studied events.
Table 1. Characteristics of selected storm events and radar rainfall data.
Space Resolution
Time Resolution
Space Grid Dimension
Time Duration
Time Steps
12/13-09-2015 C-band 1 km 5 min 64 × 64 44 h 528
12/13-09-2015 X-band 250 m 3.41 min 256 × 256 44 h 773
16-09-2015 C-band 1 km 5 min 64 × 64 11.3 h 136
16-09-2015 X-band 250 m 3.41 min 256 × 256 11.3 h 199
5/6-10-2015 C-band 1 km 5 min 64 × 64 31 h 372
5/6-10-2015 X-band 250 m 3.41 min 256 × 256 31 h 545
Table 2. UM parameters α and C1.
12/13-09-2015 C-band 1.249 0.217
12/13-09-2015 X-band 1.536 0.184
16-09-2015 C-band 1.022 0.116
16-09-2015 X-band 1.431 0.108
5/6-10-2015 C-band 1.577 0.152
5/6-10-2015 X-band 1.787 0.153
Paz, I.; Willinger, B.; Gires, A.; Alves de Souza, B.; Monier, L.; Cardinal, H.; Tisserand, B.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. Small-Scale Rainfall Variability Impacts Analyzed by Fully-Distributed Model Using C-Band and X-Band Radar Data. Water 2019, 11, 1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061273
Paz I, Willinger B, Gires A, Alves de Souza B, Monier L, Cardinal H, Tisserand B, Tchiguirinskaia I, Schertzer D. Small-Scale Rainfall Variability Impacts Analyzed by Fully-Distributed Model Using C-Band and X-Band Radar Data. Water. 2019; 11(6):1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061273
Paz, Igor, Bernard Willinger, Auguste Gires, Bianca Alves de Souza, Laurent Monier, Hervé Cardinal, Bruno Tisserand, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer. 2019. "Small-Scale Rainfall Variability Impacts Analyzed by Fully-Distributed Model Using C-Band and X-Band Radar Data" Water 11, no. 6: 1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061273


I've posted a lot over the past month about the Legacy format. I hope that my articles, along with the release of Eternal Masters, has helped to grow your interest in the Legacy format.
So now that you are interested in exploring the Legacy format, you want to know grow interest in your local area.
There is always that 1 guy who wants to play the broken commanders. He's your Legacy target.
Surprisingly enough, even though commander is thought of as casual format, many players spend an incredible amount of time and money on their Commander decks. Many of those cards are using in their decks are playable in Legacy. Many of the combos they use to finish games in Commander border on the same degenerative nature as Legacy.
Now the players that will be interested in Legacy are the more competitive players of the Commander group. Other players that could be interested are older players who still have a myriad of older cards from the past that are Legacy legal. Many of these players would be interested in the power level, speed, and the difficulty level that would be Legacy.
Some players want something a bit more broken when it comes to their cards / formats. Modern offers a taste of that, but it might not be enough for some players. This is where you start noticing the players who are trying to find the most broken of strategies and the ones that are always complaining that the format is too slow for them.
The power level of these cards are amplified in Legacy. Since many players in Modern are heavily vested in the format, they will have a good number of cards for Legacy. This makes the transition easier.
Oddly enough, there is a cheap version of Legacy but it goes by another name, Pauper. Pauper was originally a Magic Online only format but many groups have brought it to prominence in paper form as well. The format uses every set ever printed with the restriction that you can only play Commons. Now, one rule that you should know is that if a card has ever been physically printed at common, it is legal for the format.
Stopping players dead in their tracks since 1993.
This list is not exhaustive by any means, but you can see how commons are the glue that makes a big chunk of decks work.
Pauper allows players to play with cards that are more powerful than Standard while being affordable. This gives them a taste of what Legacy can bring.
The last major step would be to work with your local group in holding some Legacy events (non-sanctioned unfortunately) where proxies could be used in your Legacy deck. Most groups agree to a certain percentage (20-25% proxies max) but it is negotiable with your group.
What this is for is to gauge what each player would be willing to invest his / her time and money into playing Legacy. Deciding which deck / strategy could take time but once a player has a set idea of what they want to build for Legacy, they can then attempt to acquire those cards.
This should give you a good grasp of whom to target to try to recruit over to the Legacy format.
Commander, Deep Analysis, Imperial Recruiter, Legacy, magic the gathering, modern, MTG, MTGDecktechs, Nicol Bolas, Pauper. Bookmark.


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text:
Stephen Lawrence Craig
William T. Miller Distinguished Professor of Chemistry
Research interests in Prof. Craig's group bridge physical organic and materials chemistry. Many of these interests are guided by the vision that important challenges in materials science might be better tackled not from the traditional perspective of an engineer, but rather from the molecular perspective of an organic chemist. Current interests include the design and synthesis of self-healing polymers and the use of modern mechanochemistry in new stress-responsive polymers, catalysis, and the study of transition states and reactive intermediates. These areas require an interdisciplinary and nontraditional mix of synthetic organic and polymer chemistry, single-molecule spectroscopy, supramolecular chemistry, and materials characterization. Research interests are complemented by numerous teaching and outreach activities, including: (1) hosting intensive undergraduate and high school research experiences for a diverse group of both Duke and non-Duke students; (2) exploiting effective, scalable, and low-cost mechanisms for content dissemination; (3) team-based and active learning content in the undergraduate and graduate classroom.
Appointments and Affiliations
Professor in the Department of Chemistry
Faculty Network Member of The Energy Initiative
Bass Fellow
Office Location: 3221 French Family Science Cen, 124 Science Drive, Durham, NC 27708
Email Address: stephen.craig@duke.edu
Craig Research Group
Ph.D. Stanford University, 1997
M.Phil. University of Cambridge (United Kingdom), 1992
B.S. Duke University, 1991
Awards, Honors, and Distinctions
AAAS Fellow. American Association for the Advancement of Science. 2013
CHEM 201DL: Organic Chemistry I
CHEM 393: Research Independent Study
CHEM 531: Organic Chemistry
Duke Celebrates 70 Years of Discovery and Research at the National Science Foundation (May 14, 2020 | Duke Government Relations)
Big SMILES All Around for Polymer Chemists at Duke, MIT and Northwestern (Sep 20, 2019 | Duke Research Blog)
The Future is Plastics at Duke Chemistry (Aug 7, 2018)
Teaching Young Scientists the Elements of Design (Nov 5, 2013 | Duke Research Blog)
Materials Break, Then Remake, Bonds To Build Strength (Aug 4, 2013)
Representative Publications
Ramirez, ALB; Kean, ZS; Orlicki, JA; Champhekar, M; Elsakr, SM; Krause, WE; Craig, SL, Mechanochemical strengthening of a synthetic polymer in response to typically destructive shear forces., Nature Chemistry, vol 5 no. 9 (2013), pp. 757-761 [10.1038/nchem.1720] [abs].
Klukovich, HM; Kouznetsova, TB; Kean, ZS; Lenhardt, JM; Craig, SL, A backbone lever-arm effect enhances polymer mechanochemistry., Nature Chemistry, vol 5 no. 2 (2013), pp. 110-114 [10.1038/nchem.1540] [abs].
Black, AL; Lenhardt, JM; Craig, SL, From molecular mechanochemistry to stress-responsive materials, Journal of Materials Chemistry, vol 21 no. 6 (2011), pp. 1655-1663 [10.1039/c0jm02636k] [abs].
Wu, D; Lenhardt, JM; Black, AL; Akhremitchev, BB; Craig, SL, Molecular stress relief through a force-induced irreversible extension in polymer contour length., Journal of the American Chemical Society, vol 132 no. 45 (2010), pp. 15936-15938 [10.1021/ja108429h] [abs].
Lenhardt, JM; Ong, MT; Choe, R; Evenhuis, CR; Martinez, TJ; Craig, SL, Trapping a diradical transition state by mechanochemical polymer extension., Science (New York, N.Y.), vol 329 no. 5995 (2010), pp. 1057-1060 [10.1126/science.1193412] [abs].
Juwarker, H; Lenhardt, JM; Pham, DM; Craig, SL, 1,2,3-Triazole CH...Cl(-) contacts guide anion binding and concomitant folding in 1,4-diaryl triazole oligomers., Angewandte Chemie International Edition, vol 47 no. 20 (2008), pp. 3740-3743 [10.1002/anie.200800548] [abs].
Serpe, MJ; Craig, SL, Physical organic chemistry of supramolecular polymers., Langmuir : the Acs Journal of Surfaces and Colloids, vol 23 no. 4 (2007), pp. 1626-1634 [10.1021/la0621416] [abs].
Kersey, FR; Yount, WC; Craig, SL, Single-molecule force spectroscopy of bimolecular reactions: system homology in the mechanical activation of ligand substitution reactions., Journal of the American Chemical Society, vol 128 no. 12 (2006), pp. 3886-3887 [10.1021/ja058516b] [abs].
Yount, WC; Loveless, DM; Craig, SL, Small-molecule dynamics and mechanisms underlying the macroscopic mechanical properties of coordinatively cross-linked polymer networks., Journal of the American Chemical Society, vol 127 no. 41 (2005), pp. 14488-14496 [10.1021/ja054298a] [abs].
Yount, WC; Juwarker, H; Craig, SL, Orthogonal control of dissociation dynamics relative to thermodynamics in a main-chain reversible polymer., Journal of the American Chemical Society, vol 125 no. 50 (2003), pp. 15302-15303 [10.1021/ja036709y] [abs].
Center for Biomolecular and Tissue Engineering


Like Netflix which is a legal site, this is a popular website known for streaming pirated movies.
This can be said to be one among the leading alternatives to earlier 123Movies; fmovie has gained a huge line of followers in the recent years as it offers an extensive list of top-rated movies.
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Also See: Is 123Movies Safe?
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The practice followed by fmovie to list movies is doubtful.
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Yes this is a free streaming website but it comes with few hiccups, it is a grave reminder that most of the content on this website is hosted via third-party websites.
This is majorly done as a strategic move by the owners, but it also provokes you to open visit non relevant another site, go to other browser tab, or go even through a survey and download something before you can watch a movie.
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We would like to suggest that there are multiple legal options for watching movies online pick the correct one which is compatible with the law.
How to get rid of the FMovies ?
We recommend you to do away with FMovies at the earliest, and it is not getting better until we take action, it is going to worse if it stays for bit more time than required as it will make the computer more vulnerable with other malicious programs.
To gain success in removing this FMovies, we recommend you to download and install the best antivirus called Malware Crusher.
So it is important to put the system on real-time tracking this antimalware tool then takes care of issues like malware or threats care.
Malware Crusher scans and detects and also removes all common digital threats from your computer and makes all infected windows resources with a secure and safer variable.
Malware Crusher ensure that your computer has the latest updated and refined versions of the software with critical and emergency updates.
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