text:
La gare de Forchies-la-Marche est une ancienne gare ferroviaire belge de la ligne 112A, de Piéton à Roux située dans l'ancienne commune de Forchies-la-Marche, faisant maintenant partie de la commune de Fontaine-l'Évêque, dans la province de Hainaut en Région wallonne.

Situation ferroviaire
La gare de Forchies-la-Marche était située au point kilométrique (PK) 2.1 de la ligne 112A, de Piéton à Roux entre les gares de Piéton et le Trazegnies. Elle se trouve à proximité de la jonction avec la ligne 112 (ancien et nouveau tracé).

Histoire
La gare de Forchies est mise en service le  par les Chemins de fer de l'État belge sur la ligne allant alors de Piéton à Trazegnies. Elle sera prolongée vers Courcelles et Roux en 1873-74 devenant la ligne 112A, prolongée vers Jumet et Lambusart par la ligne 121. Entretemps, en 1876-77, l'État belge a mis en service la ligne 110 de Piéton à Bienne-lez-Happart se détachant de la ligne 112 non loin de sa bifurcation avec la ligne 112.

Malgré la proximité de ce nœud ferroviaire, la seule gare desservant Forchies-la-Marche est implantée sur la ligne 112A.

La reconstruction de la ligne 112 (nouvelle section plus rectiligne évitant Fontaine-l'Évêque) va permettre de corriger ce défaut, d'autant que la SNCB décide de mettre fin aux trains de voyageurs sur la ligne 112A. La gare de Forchies-la-Marche ferme le , date d'instauration du plan IC-IR, mais la nouvelle gare de Forchies a été inaugurée le  et existe encore à ce jour.

Sur la ligne 112A, les trains de marchandises jusqu'au , date à laquelle la section de Courcelles à Piéton est complètement désaffectée. Les rails ont disparu vers 1989.

Le bâtiment de la gare n'a pas été démoli. Il a été reconverti en logements et une aile, fortement agrandie, accueille le petit marché, une épicerie-charcuterie.

Nom de la gare

Patrimoine ferroviaire
Le  de la gare de Forchies-la-Marche date de la fin du  et appartient au plan type 1881, modèle qui se retrouve sur quelques gares de la ligne 112 reconstruites à la même époque mais pas sur la ligne 112A et les autres lignes carolorégiennes bâties dans les années 1870-1880.

L'aile principale, disposée à droite du corps de logis, possède cinq travées. À gauche du corps central se trouve l'aile de service. Sans étage et à toit plat avec une cour intérieure, elle a été surhaussée et portée à neuf travées afin d'accueillir davantage de logements et un commerce. Le reste de la gare est également divisé en habitations.

Notes et références

Bibliographie
 Hugo de Bot, Architecture des gares en Belgique, tome I (de 1835 à 1914), Brepols, Turnhout, 2002.

Voir aussi

Articles connexes
 Ligne 112A (Infrabel)
 Gare de Forchies
 Liste de gares en Belgique

Liens externes

Gare
Gare fermée dans la province de Hainaut
Gare mise en service en 1872

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Using the LeadCapture app, exhibitors can scan potential leads during the event, then export them all in a tidy excel file when it's time to pack up. Best of all, you'll have help with the set up. You'll designate an Exhibitor Admin, who will coordinate lead gathering for their organization, so you can concentrate on the other million-and-one things that are going to make your event a success.
1 Add your Exhibitors. First, you'll need to add the attending exhibitors to their event individually or by importing them. You'll also designate an Exhibitor Admin for each organization and allocate them a chosen number of Lead Gatherer licenses. Each license represents one person who will have the ability to scan leads during the event. The responsibility of the Exhibitor Admin is to distribute their organization's licenses.
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NOTE: An organization's members register for the event before they can be added as booth staff.
Once the event has wrapped up, the Exhibitor Admin can export all of the gathered leads as an excel file.


It was a day of light winds all round as the crews returned to the water for the second half of the West Coast US Olympic Trials.
There was hardly enough breeze to blow out the candles on John LOVELL and Charlie OGLETREE's mutual 40th birthday, which they would rather forget, as Robbie DANIEL and crew Hunter STUNZI broke their week-long deadlock to take command of the Tornado Trials at San Diego.
And those weren't the only ones to do or die in fluky conditions up and down the coast. Zach RAILEY's big Finn lead was cut in half by Geoffrey EWENSON at Newport Beach and Mark MENDELBLATT and Magnus LILJEDAHL's cozy Star margin at Marina del Rey totally disappeared behind a pair of firsts by George SZABO and Andrew SCOTT.
Playing wispy winds of 4-5 knots for all they were worth, Robbie DANIEL and crew Hunter STUNZI won both races to break away from their week-long arm-wrestle with John LOVELL and Charlie OGLETREE to take a three-point lead - the first of five days that hasn't ended with them tied with the three-time Olympians and 2004 silver medallists.
Mark MENDELBLATT and Magnus LILJEDAHL's seemingly secure ten-point lead vanished in George SZABO and Andrew SCOTT's mastery of the gentle zephyrs of Santa Monica Bay Thursday, leaving the two boats even with a six-point lead over resurgent veteran John DANE and his son-in-law crew, Austin SPERRY. While MENDELBLATT and LILJEDAHL (10,4) took their first double-digit finish in ten races, SZABO and SCOTT (1,1) swept the day with comfortable margins ahead of DANE and SPERRY's 2,3.
Winds were 6-8 knots for the first race dropping to 5-7 for the second. SZABO said: "Andrew had the race course figured out and I got to handle the tiller. We went everywhere - left in the first race, right in the second . . . not an easy day."
It wasn't their best day (6,4), but Stuart MCNAY and crew Graham BIEHL were looking China-bound Thursday because their strongest rivals, Mikee ANDERSON-MITTERLING and David HUGHES, had a worse day (5,7) in the mixed fleet. Instead, in single-digit breeze from the south, focus turned to the contest for the women's Olympic berth between Amanda CLARK and Sarah MERGENTHALER (1,5) and Erin MAXWELL and Isabelle KINSOLVING (3,2), now only seven points apart in second and third place in the mixed scoring table that will determine the winners.
"Just like [the movie] 'Groundhog Day,' " was how four-time Olympian Michael GEBHARDT summed up another afternoon of swapping wins with his onetime protégé, Ben BARGER. GEBHARDT won the first race in lighter wind of 3-4 knots, then bowed to the larger BARGER in 7-8.
"It came down to who had the better start," GEBHARDT said. "I ran a little conservative moving my board." In his win, BARGER said, "I was planing, which gives me an advantage, just trying to hold him back. Each day's race is a big one. I'm trying not to mess up."
Morgan LARSON and crew Pete SPAULDING had a breakaway day with two wins and a second place but cut only three points off Tim WADLOW and Chris RAST's (1,3,3) commanding lead Thursday. They're due to make a bigger gain Friday when they discard their second 14-point OCS after the 17th race, while WADLOW and RAST drop a mere three points, but there figures to be a sizable gap left with eight races remaining. For now, Dalton BERGAN and Zack MAXAM (3,2,2), due to toss a four, remain in the middle of the three-boat fight.


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More From David Haggith
January 19, 2023 Retail Tales Tell a Bad Story about the Economy
January 11, 2023 A Long Way to Fall: Stock Market's Bottom is Hardly Even Within Sight
January 08, 2023 It's Worse Than it Looks: Beneath the Surface the Bottom is Falling Out, and People are Jumping out of Windows
December 22, 2022 2022: The Year that Imploded … Bigly
December 19, 2022 Snow Job: Fed Admits Gov't Job Estimates too High by Over 1-Million, which Means Serious Peril!
2023 Prediction: The Fed's Inflation Fight is FAR from over!
David Haggith
The dominant theme for last year, I said way back in 2021, would be that inflation would become such a raging inferno it would force the Fed to tighten harder than anyone expected by rapidly raising interest and erasing money supply, causing stock and bond markets to both crash together (a coinciding set of events so rare almost no one would dare predict it), taking us into a recession.
Today, one writer at Seeking Alpha summarized the year as follows:
Surging Interest Rates And Inflation Result In The Worst Year For Stocks And Bonds In Decades
Multi-decade highs in inflation combined with historically aggressive Fed rate hikes and growing concerns about corporate earnings and a possible recession, pressured both stocks and bond market returns.
The S&P 500 Index fell 18%, its worst calendar year decline since 2008 and the 4th worst since 1945. Bond markets recorded some of the worst declines in history. Major benchmarks for both stocks and bonds declined together for the first time since the 1960s.
While the bond market's fall was its worst in, at least, forty years, it was the first decline ever that spread over two years.
With last year having done everything that was expected of it in record-breaking ways, you might be wanting to know what I'm predicting for this year, so I'm going to tell you the most significant part of my predictions for 2023 now, but the rest will be solely for my active patrons as my appreciation to them for staying with me. The part I'd like to share with everyone now is where we are going from here with inflation, which is what drove the other themes through all of the year last year. Inflation was, in other words, the biggest story of the year in economics by far.
We start this year with the Fed appearing to be getting inflation under control, and most of the stock market smells victory in the air. However, the Fed isn't taking victory in its battle with inflation for granted, and neither should you. I think there is a strong chance we'll see inflation rise again very soon and a reasonable chance we'll see it rise worse in the latter part of the year than what we've already seen, and what follows are the indicators and reasons why that is likely.
The road to getting here
This is more of a warning than an absolute prediction, but I think it has fairly high odds, and a mere warning to keep your eye on inflation was where I began with my Patrons, at least, as far back as mid 2020 when almost no one was talking about inflation because consumer inflation had not even started yet. Noting that I had not warned of inflation during years of writing my blog, I started warning for the first time that inflation was becoming a strong likelihood because of the Fed's actions, so be wary of it:
Magic Monetary Theory Comes at a Price (Aug. 2020)
MMT is Here! Start Stacking Money Like Firewood (April 2020)
When the first trickles of inflation began to show up as producer inflation in early 2021, I explained through the year how that would eventually become severe consumer inflation because of how it was stacking up on the producer side and how it would flow through. At that point, the Fed was not even talking about inflation, and one blow-hard, who is a somewhat popular writer at Seeking Alpha, flaunted his credentials and lectured me on how I was nuts — no inflation was happening at all. Anyone who knew a thing about economics certainly knew that, and he had the Fed's opinion plus the yield curve to back him, not to mention again and again his economic credentials! (I tried explaining why the yield curve would be late to the party to show inflation as well as to show trouble for bonds, but he thought all of that was the talk of an idiot, too.)
Regardless of the ridicule, I persisted in showing my own readers where those signs were emerging. The Fed didn't even start talking about inflation until about the middle of 2021, and then it promised us for months on end it would be "transitory." I argued, "No way" to the Fed's transitory fantasy:
The Great Inflationary Train Wreck is Here (July 2021)
I've bet my blog on my prediction that inflation will crash both the economy and the stock market, saying I believe with enough conviction that I'll stop writing on economics if it fails to happen. Why? Because I wouldn't want to be one of those doom-porn writers who keeps going even after major misses, and because I have a track record to keep.
Stocks could be the first car in this great train wreck
While the Fed is the locomotive in this inflationary disaster, stocks may be the first car behind the Fed to jump the rails….
Then on November 14, 2021, the NASDAQ began its decline into what eventually got deep enough to be declared a bear-market crash. Prior to that bet, I had laid out the following plots for the path ahead for my Patrons:
Why "Persistent Inflation" Will Become an Intense Fire Tornado, Greater Than the Fed Even Imagines (June 2021)
The Best Arguments Against "Persistent Inflation" Have it Wrong (June 2021)
Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming! (May 2021)
Inflationary Rocket Train Accelerating Rapidly (April 2021)
The Coming Inflation Conflagration (Feb. 2021)
I lay out those tracks that were given in advance of the actual events because it gives credibility to the warnings I'm about to give here regarding the path of inflation that has a good chance of re-emerging this year.
The inflation invasion
As with the start of those predictions back in 2021, I'm not ready to state with certainty quite yet whether another advance of inflation is coming, but there are good reasons forming again to be concerned about it, and one reason that could make inflation absolutely formidable.
What I can say with certainty is that inflation will not back down to where the Fed believes it has won the inflationary war as easily as stock investors keep believing. This war will outlive expectations just like the Ukraine war that was supposed to be over in a month and still has no end in sight. In that war, Russia made initial gains as the Fed is doing against inflation right now. But Ukraine held on longer than most believed and even staged a surprising comeback. I think that war makes a good example of how the war with inflation is likely to go. Inflation has that kind of fight in it that many in the stock and bond markets are not expecting, and it has empowerment behind it, too.
In the short term, we see again the kinds of background (producer) inflation that I said in those months now far behind us would push through to new inflation. Those background pressures are starting to show in some areas again now, indicating that, inflation could edge back upward even if the Fed keeps its foot on the brakes.
All gassed up but where to go?
One major driver I reported in The Daily Doom today is that fuel prices are back on the rise.
Gasoline prices continue to climb for the fourth straight week, rising 32.7 cents over the last month as crude oil prices rise, data from AAA showed on Monday.
Gasoline prices are rising along with the rise in WTI crude oil prices, which are up $3 per barrel from a week ago, and up $2 per barrel from a month ago.
That doesn't mean much if crude prices do not continue to rise; however, there are reasons to think they will, and gasoline and diesel, of course, drive the price of just about everything because they are involved in the transport of all resources and all finished products. So, they are a major leading indicator of future price rises in all goods and services IF the rise in crude prices continues. There is more, though, than just the cost of crude pushing those prices up:
In addition to rising crude oil prices, gasoline prices are rising as "continued refinery challenges kept supply of gasoline from rising more substantially," Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy said in a Monday note.
Aside from those refinery issues that are pressuring prices right now, the crude price pressure looks likely to build for the following reasons:
"Macroeconomic factors have continued to weigh on oil and refined products, as strong demand in China hasn't been slowed much by a surge in new Covid cases. In addition, releases of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have wrapped up. Concerns are increasing that without additional oil, supply will tighten in the weeks ahead, especially as the nation starts to move away from softer demand in the height of winter. Moving forward, it doesn't look good for motorists, with prices likely to continue accelerating," DeHaan added.
On top of that, the recent European price caps put on Russian crude are already showing strong effect. Another article in The Daily Doom today reported the following:
Russian Oil Exports Plunged By 820,000 Bpd Last Week
Russian crude oil shipments from its key export terminals slumped by 22%, or by 820,000 barrels per day (bpd), last week, compared to the previous week, according to tanker tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.
A 22% decline in crude shipments out of Russian ports puts upward price pressure on all other crude prices as other sources have to make up the shortfall.
On top of that, the EU bans—effective February 5—seaborne imports of Russian refined oil products and around 1 million bpd of Russian diesel, naphtha, and other fuels need to find a home elsewhere if Moscow wants to continue getting money for those products.
What that likely translates into is additional pricing pressure on all petroleum products in areas where those bans will cut off Russian supply as they become effective since those price caps in refined products don't go into play until February. They may have the same effect as the price caps on crude, cutting back supply of refined Russian products throughout the West where the sanctions apply, pushing more demand to the US and giving those supply sources more room to raise their prices due to the dwindling price competition.
OilPrice.com also warns in another article in today's Daily Doom that upcoming European caps in GAS prices could cause disorder in other markets (meaning ultimately surprise inflation in other markets):
The upcoming price cap on the benchmark European gas contract could abruptly change the gas market and impact the functioning of other markets as well as financial stability, according to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA)….
"It could trigger significant and abrupt changes of the broader market environment, which could impact the orderly functioning of markets, and ultimately financial stability," ESMA was expected to say, according to the opinion seen by Bloombergahead of its publication….
EU energy ministers reached a political agreement on a regulation that sets a so-called "market correction mechanism," which would come into force on February 15, 2023….
However, if risks to the security of supply occur, the European Commission will suspend the price cap rule, the EU agreed last month.
"The Commission stands ready to suspend ex ante the activation of the mechanism…" EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said.
Some effects could be seen only after the activation of the gas price cap, and it's difficult to predict, ESMA says in today's opinion, according to the draft Bloomberg has seen….
Market liquidity could be reduced, says the EU authority, although significant effects could not be identified so far….
"ESMA however notes that setting position limits in the uncertain geopolitical environment created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russia's decision to significantly reduce delivery of natural gas to the EU may prove challenging, especially in relation to the calculation of deliverable supply," the authority said.
Price caps have always been problematic and often backfire in ways that are not expected, so the short take on all of the above is that there is plenty of room for volatility because NO ONE, obviously after reading this, really understands how the price caps will play out. That makes it impossible to have any certainty on what will happen with fossil fuel prices in all the various products, but creates plenty of possibility of supply shocks that can send prices the opposite of the way intended:
The gas price cap is "a difficult creature. It's unprecedented, it's untested," ACER's director Christian Zinglersen told the Financial Times in December. Zinglersen also noted that he would be "reluctant to rely on this gas price cap" to protect EU consumers from price spikes.
Here is the important takeaway: One of the biggest factors that took down consumer price inflation in recent months was falling energy prices, but there is plenty of reason to think those won't hold, so they could easily become one of the biggest factors driving inflation back up. And it is not just the "energy" component that will go back up in that case, but all components that use energy in their production and transport, which means everything.
On a monthly basis, CPI ticked down -0.1%. The consensus was for monthly CPI to be unchanged.
If you take the headline numbers in isolation, it appears that price inflation has cooled off, but digging deeper into the data reveals that falling energy prices papered over the fact that most other prices continued their relentless climb….
Falling gasoline and energy prices were the biggest contributor to the overall decline in prices and skewed the overall numbers lower. Most other categories continued to chart price increases last month.
The energy price index plunged by -4.5% on a monthly basis with gasoline prices down -9.4% and fuel oil cratering by -16.6%.
But food prices continue to climb relentlessly. Overall, food prices rose by another 0.3% on a monthly basis. Year on year, food prices have risen by 10.4% according to the BLS data.
Schiff Gold
Inflation was far from beaten in the last report, since it all hinged on volatile energy taking the overall numbers down, and the stock market was foolish to take that report as a sign that the Fed is winning its war. The Fed has absolutely no control over what happens in energy prices. It is hoping its high interest will cause enough economic destruction to bring down demand for fuel, but the question is will the demand drop as much as available supply may drop? If not, then prices will rise until demand and supply find their equilibrium. While the Fed can hope to have some impact on energy demand, it has zero control on the supply side, which is where all the problems are forming.
So, there is still lots of room here for CPI to rise if energy makes a sustained rise, and there are plenty of reasons to think that is likely.
Prices have not peaked
I'm not the only one pointing out the concern that the last peak in prices was a false summit.
Prices have not peaked yet, says CEO of one of the world's largest consumer goods firms
The CEO of consumer goods giant Unilever said Tuesday that prices would likely continue to rise in the near term…
"For the last 18 months we've seen extraordinary input cost pressure … it runs across petrochemical derived products, agricultural derived products, energy, transport, logistics," he said.
Remember, that those producer inputs from 2021 are where the first massive round of consumer inflation in 2022 came from. It shows up first on the producer side, which was my basis, as I pointed out with the articles above, for predicting we would see massive consumer price inflation before we actually saw any consumer price inflation because producer inflation ultimately flows through to the consumer. So, while my self-avaunted expert critic saw no sign of consumer price inflation, he wasn't paying attention to what was happening behind the scenes, even when I pointed it all out for him.
"It's been feeding through for quite some time now and we've been accelerating the rate of price increases that we've had to put into the market," he added.
"So far, the consumer response in terms of volume softness has been very muted, the consumer has been very resilient," Jope said.
That resiliency is going to cost you more as they will take advantage of it. Companies like Unilever that own many large consumer brands are pressured by producer price increases to send you more of it so long as consumers remain resilient, though that will be the limiting factor when the resiliency ends:
"We do see the prospect of higher volume elasticity as winter energy costs hit, as households' savings levels come down and that buffer goes away and as prices continue to rise," he said.
The Fed is hoping to end consumer resiliency by sucking money out of the economy with QT and higher interest rates and by crushing jobs so consumers are crippled into not buying as much. You ultimately get to pay for the Fed's mistakes in printing all that money you thought they were giving you for free. Well, now it is payback time as they try to crush inflation.
However, Unilever is saying they expect the end of that resiliency is not here yet, and so they are increasing prices at a faster clip until they find that end because they have those background producer pressures to deal with in the prices Unilever pays. Speaking of those rising input costs/prices that drive inflation, the CEO gave a warning:
Jope was asked if he foresaw any moderation when it came to inflationary pressures. "It's very hard to predict the future of commodity markets," he replied.
"Even if you press the oil major CEOs, they'll be a little cagey on giving an outlook on energy prices."
Unilever's view, he said, was that "we know for sure there's more inflationary pressure coming through in our input costs."
So, energy is the big variable, and its starting to rise again with reasons to continue to rise, but no one will say for sure. Not being at peak prices is, however, not the same thing as not being at the peak inflation rate. Prices can go up but at a slower rate of inflation. However, Unilever said they have been accelerating the rate of price increases; but the CEO does give this caveat even there:
"We might be, at the moment, around peak inflation, but probably not peak prices," he went on to state. "There's further pricing to come through, but the rate of price increases is probably peaking around now."
So, they have been accelerating the rate of price increase, but MAY now be seeing the rate of increases slow, though prices will still rise, meaning the inflation rate may drop, but inflation will still continue strong into the foreseeable future. As he notes, though, that can change with energy prices if they go up. The Fed's fight is far from over in his view as head of one of the nation's largest consumer-oriented conglomerates.
He's ambivalent because …
"Nobody running a business at the moment has really lived through global inflation, it's a long time since we've had global inflation," he said….
"But now those markets are having to deal with the combination of commodity pressure and currency weakness. So our instinct is to act quickly when costs start coming through."
In other words, things can change quickly … and in the wrong direction for the consumer. The war on inflation is far from certain and certainly not over anytime soon.
The greatest tragedy would be to end the battle early
The Fed's big fear is that, if it ends the battle early, it will have it to do ALL OVER AGAIN. That will result in inflation expectations becoming cast in concrete in the consumer's mind and in trust in the Fed's ability to fight inflation becoming greaty diminished. Trust is all the Fed really has to sell because that is the only thing its money is based on.
That's why former US treasurer Larry Summers said at Davos last week,
The 'greatest tragedy' would be if central banks don't finish the job on inflation….
Speaking on a CNBC-moderated panel at the conclusion of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Friday, Summers said economists and business leaders at the summit were experiencing an "exhilaration of relief" but cautioned policymakers against resting on their laurels….
"Inflation is down, but just as transitory factors elevated inflation earlier, transitory factors have contributed to the declines that we've seen in inflation and as in many journeys, the last part of a journey is often the hardest."
If transitory factors are the primary cause in the lowering of inflation, then the lowering of inflation is, itself, transitory in nature. The biggest of those transitory factors is, as I noted, energy prices, and those are, for now anyway, back on the rise.
"The greatest tragedy in this moment would be if central banks were to lurch away from a focus on assuring price stability prematurely and we were to have to fight this battle twice," Summers said.
He added that he had been encouraged by recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.
"We have to carry through, because if inflation were to be allowed to surge back, that would put not just price stability, not just standards of living for some of the lowest income people at risk, but also pose very substantial risks to cyclical stability," he said.
Those substantial risks to stability would be the serious loss in confidence/trust in the Fed's ability to manage this problem and rising expectations, therefore, that inflation will continue as well as the sense of defeat you get when you fight something for a year and then lose the battle. It could be devastating because that change in confidence leads to hoarding and higher wage demands; but the risk gets worse than that, as I'll show in the next section. (Again risk, not certainty.)
So, if you are (as would be unlikely for my readers) still in the camp that thinks the Fed will pivot, GET OUT OF IT! It's a fool's paradise. The Fed knows better. It knows it cannot, and it has stated it cannot. The inflation war will continue deep into this year … even if the Fed sees improvement, but especially if it sees things flip.
In fact, while the rate of consumer inflation on the prices of goods has been falling, the rate of inflation on the prices of consumer services has been rising, and services are not only the larger component of overall CPI (by far) but also the most sticky and most wage related:
The services inflation rate, in fact, climbed to hit the fastest clip in forty years!
So, what do you think the Fed does if services inflation continues on that trajectory in the next CPI report (being about 80% of CPI) and if energy starts putting some upward pressure back on the goods portion (20%) of CPI? That will put a little panic in Powell's bones, and don't think he isn't concerned it could happen. It looks almost poised to happen. (And, if energy rises, it pushes up the services side, too.)
If that happens, then the Fed over-tightens hard, and what follows is why that will be over-tightening:
Formidable inflation
The biggest risk is that the Fed's crushing of the economy makes shortages worse, because that can actually backfire and drive prices up. Yes, over-tightening could, incongruently and counter-intuitively, drive prices higher.
The pandemic brought a warning shot, a reminder that the saying "too much money chasing too few goods" still applies. Global inflation surged to 9% last year as bottlenecks emerged in all supply chains.
The Fed cannot control shortages, which are a major factor in present price increases, and it will need to create a lot of economic damage to get inflation down by sucking money supply out in the manner Summers says must continue at a time when scarcity of goods and services is driving up prices. If you've read here long, you know I don't like Larry Summers, but this time, even he is on the side of necessary continued tightening if the battle with inflation is to be won.
However, it is quite possible that production (the way we typically measure our economy)will tighten enough to where the Fed may actually exacerbate the shortages we already have. The economy is already underproducing due to crippled labor, as I've written several times. Here is where that gets serious dangers. One big reason production is down is that labor is down. The Fed's blind spot, as well as everyone like Larry, is that crushing the economy down more to squeeze out inflation by definition means taking production down more, and that unavoidably makes means even lower supply and likely worse shortages (shortages being the gap between supply and demand). That is when we enter no-man's land. There is no solution to the problem the Fed has set for itself if continuing the battle against inflation erodes production (supply) faster than it kills that consumer resiliency (demand).
If the Fed were to flip to stimulus in such an environment of even worse shortages, it would trip us straight into hyperinflation because impoverished people with new jobs would start using their new money to hoard all the things they have become short on in fear of future inflation and worse shortages.
"If you want two cups of coffee, save money and order both at the same time," a student at the University of Freiburg famously quipped during Germany's hyperinflation. That's the inflation we worry about.
If hoarding begins because people are out of money at a time when supplies are also low, that is the situation that becomes formidable inflation if the Fed should revert to easing because it realizes its policy has gone desperately wrong. That is a situation, if it develops, that the Fed can only make worse by changing policy to an easier stance. It would be the Fed's most formidable fail. We can only hope that the Fed does not over-tighten or that its tightening crushes demand a lot faster than it crushes already short supply.
Market expectations call for a cratering of inflation this year, to 2.33%. It's also expected to stay there for a very long time, 2.19% in 2024 and an average of 2.29% in the next ten years.
Don't you believe it. What is more likely to happen than that rosy scenario is that the Fed fails to understand the labor shortage and continues to believe it needs to crush down jobs to get this inflation battle under control (especially if it sees inflation raise its head again for the reasons noted above); and, in that case, the supply shortages drive inflation up on the reduced number of good available. People buy less because they have less money, but there are so many fewer goods and services that they pay more for what they do buy.
That's inflationary hell if it happens, but whether it does depends on whether the Fed overcorrects because it continues to believe a tight job market is a sign of a still resilient economy, rather than is a sign that laborers are scarce and that labor shortages only make supply problems worse, as will Fed tightening.
This is a perilous path the Fed has never walked. We have not had a time in history where inflation has been fueled by the greatest money creation ever while labor was tight — not tight due to high labor demand but due to shortages of available workers who died or became chronically ill in the MILLIONS while others retired in the MILLIONS because we have just entered the demographic stage long warned about where baby boomers retire at a faster rate than new labor enters the market — all compounded by trade wars, lockdowns, real wars and sanctions ALL making supply problems worse.
That is one heck of a horrible stew that has been brewing and that continues to brew. And the Fed can do nothing about any of that, except make it worse by crushing down harder on production. It would probably do about as good as it can by stopping where it is and holding; but its misbelief about labor, as I said in earlier posts is the major blind spot that will likely cause it to fail … and fail badly. (See: "Powell's Peril Lies in Lanquishing Labor Market" based on a much earlier Patron Post I wrote: "A Recessional for the Recession: Everyone Sings the "Strong Labor Market" Tune in Unison, and They're All Wrong!")
So, inflation will decrease generally to a lower rate of price inflation (disinflation, not deflation) in first part of year, but will bump up again during the early months of the year if energy keeps rising (which is impossible to be confident of one way or the other right now because of all the untested variables).
By the end of the year or in early 2024 inflation could take a seriously bad turn if the Fed's crushing of production makes product shortages and even service shortages greater. What that will mean is that America's standard of living starts to slide in 2023 where, by the end of the year we'll start to feel we are living with a lot less but paying more to do it.
That is something to take as a warning and be watchful for, and I will be tracking that because the picture there will become clearer as we see what happens in that short-term perspective on inflation in the first paragraph of this section and as we see how intensely the Fed clamps down if it sees inflation bob upward again. That is where the risk of considerable over tightening that cripples already short supplies comes in. Consider this like a hurricane watch, versus a hurricane warning.
In-depth coverage like this is now mostly for my patrons, but I wanted to make sure everyone has a grasp on how serious the inflation problem that I said would be the driving theme all of last year remains for the coming, year, too. My next Patron Post will cover all the rest of my predictions for the coming year (at least, those that I can make at this point) with the rationale behind them.
Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!
https://thegreatrecession.info/
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of The Great Recession Blog.
Seeing the Great Recession Before it Hit
My path to writing this blog began as a personal journey. Back in 2007, my (now ex) wife had a family home that was an inheritance from her mother, which she and her brother had been holding onto for several years because real-estate was always appreciating. I worked as a resort property manager back then, and I was certain from my own observations in the industry and from my readings that the U.S. housing market was on the verge of catastrophic collapse. Even though real-estate agents I talked to thought I was nuts, I urged my wife to press her brothers to sell the family home before prices collapsed. They eventually complied and sold the home just three months before Bear-Stearns made it obvious some deep financial troubles were brewing, taking the U.S. housing market down for the tumble. Her family sold near the peak of the market. I realized, then, the value of urging people to take actions based on what I believed would happen.
Why should I have known the housing market and banks would crash when Al Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve board members clearly did not?
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/2023-prediction-the-feds-inflation-fight-is…

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Red Hat and Network Appliance Strengthen Partnership by Bringing New iSCSI Solutions to Linux Environments

Red Hat, Inc. (NASDAQ: RHAT) and Network Appliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) have announced joint efforts related to the development and deployment of iSCSI within production Red Hat Enterprise Linux® environments. Both Red Hat and NetApp have committed to supporting the iSCSI software initiator in the upcoming Red Hat Enterprise Linux 3 Update 4 as well as future Red Hat Enterprise Linux versions based on the new 2.6 Linux kernel. The expanded partnership will enable customers to experience maximised flexibility, enhanced performance and increased cost savings with open, industry-standard IP-based SAN environments.

Additionally, the Red Hat Global File System (GFS) and Cluster Suite are now supported with NetApp® storage systems. Combined with industry-standard Fibre Channel and iSCSI technologies, Red Hat and NetApp offer customers enhanced flexibility with the ability to leverage their choice of iSCSI or Fibre Channel SANs. Red Hat currently uses NetApp storage systems for several of its mission-critical internal applications, including the award-winning Red Hat Network and other applications based on Oracle®.

"NetApp with Red Hat Enterprise Linux is a proven combination capable of supporting robust and open production application platforms," said Paul Cormier, Executive Vice President of Engineering at Red Hat. "The Red Hat and NetApp engineering organisations have collaborated to develop enterprise-level Linux grid environments using an iSCSI-based GFS product suite. With current and future support of iSCSI in our upcoming Linux releases, customers will benefit from the most advanced GFS technologies complemented by the performance and cost leadership advantages of a NetApp SAN storage solution – be it iSCSI or Fibre Channel SAN. These solutions create greater choice for customers building open source architectures."

"NetApp IP SAN expertise makes us the natural fit as a reference platform for Red Hat iSCSI development efforts," said Patrick Rogers, Vice President of Marketing at Network Appliance. "NetApp has always been a proponent of cost-effective and scalable storage environments based on open file systems and open networking technologies, including GFS and iSCSI."

For more information on the Red Hat and Netapp partnership, visit www.netapp.com.

news ends
Notes for Editors

About Red Hat, Inc.
Red Hat, the world's leading open source and Linux provider, is headquartered in Raleigh, NC with satellite offices spanning the globe. Red Hat is leading Linux and open source solutions into the mainstream by making high quality, low cost technology accessible. Red Hat provides operating system software along with middleware, applications and management solutions. Red Hat also offers support, training and consulting services to its customers worldwide and through top-tier partnerships. Red Hat's Open Source strategy offers customers a long term plan for building infrastructures that are based on and leverage open source technologies with focus on security and ease of management. Learn more: http://www.redhat.com.

About Network Appliance
Network Appliance is a world leader in unified storage solutions for today's data-intensive enterprise. Since its inception in 1992, Network Appliance has delivered technology, product, and partner firsts that continue to drive 'The evolution of storage™'. Information about Network Appliance™ solutions and services is available at www.netapp.com.

NetApp is a registered trademark and Network Appliance and The evolution of storage are trademarks of Network Appliance, Inc., in the U.S. and other countries. Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds. All other brands or products are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders and should be treated as such.

For further information please contact –
Managing Director, Australia and New Zealand
Network Appliance, Inc.
Ph: +61 (0) 2 9779 5600 & +61 (0) 411 223 883

Press contact –
Derek Evans
Gotley Nix Evans Pty Ltd
Ph: +61 (0) 2 9957 5555 & +61 (0) 410 601 673
pr@gne.com.au

The winners were honoured during the Vocus Virtual Partner Conference


text:
Malden man charged with shooting at police officer (Local News ~ 08/20/20)
MALDEN, Mo. —Perry Handy, 66, of Malden has been charged with the class A felony of assault in the first degree for shooting at a law enforcement officer just outside Malden on Sunday, August 16. According to Dunklin County Prosecuting Attorney Nicholas Jain, Handy was also charged with two additional counts of assault in the first degree for shooting at a young woman and her two year old child, three counts of armed criminal action, two counts of endangering the welfare of a child, and unlawful use of a weapon.. ...
Stoddard County Confirms four new cases of COVID-19; four recoveries (Local News ~ 08/20/20)
Four new cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Stoddard County by Ben Godwin, Director of the Stoddard County Health Center. Godwin also confirmed four recoveries. The county now sits at 255 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 18 active cases, 228 recoveries and nine deaths...
Mother, daughter duo win same music award (Local News ~ 08/20/20)
Dexter's Madeline Parker recently earned two awards for her singing prowess. She was awarded the Dorothy Ashbaugh Award and the Joyce Walsh Award. Each award also included a $1,000 scholarship. Parker, a 2020 Dexter graduate, is the daughter of Bobbi Kay Parker and Ron Anthony...


You are looking beautiful innocent Pakistani girl Misbah Wajahat. She recently completed her Diploma of Financial Services from Deakin University Australia. She told that the Diploma of Financial Services (Finance/Mortgage Broking Management) is an award program designed to teach participants how to generate an income from diverse lending portfolios, including residential, commercial, plant and equipment loans. It also provides other complementary skills such a developing, marketing and managing a business. Misbah want to tell us the difference in Mortgage and benefits of Mortgages. First she told.
The first benefit of mortgage loans is that there are many types of mortgage loans and are available and used worldwide. The flexibility of interest rates also adds to the benefits of mortgage loans. Here, the interest rates may be fixed for the life of the loan or can be changed at certain predefined periods. The amount paid per period and the frequency of payments; in some cases, the amount paid per period may change or the borrower may have the option to increase or decrease the amount paid.
sum to repay the mortgage at maturity. This type of arrangement is called an investment-backed mortgage or is often related to the type of plan used.
Another big benefit in the VA home mortgage program is there is no Mortgage Insurance. Unlike Conventional mortgage loans and FHA mortgage loans, VA mortgage loans do not charge monthly mortgage insurance. This is an average savings of anywhere between $30 a month to $200 a month, depending on the size of the home loan.
What got most homeowners in trouble with the ARM loans is that many homeowners were going with the ARM loan as the only way to get approved for the loan. Once the loan reached the adjustment period, many consumers could not afford the new payment. Make sure that when you look at the ARM loan program, that you can afford the highest possible payment. Many mortgage companies now have underwriting guidelines set in place that require the lender to qualify a homeowner based on the highest possible payment.
Mortgage Loans have a number of loan options. You can easily find the right lending package for your individual needs, depending on your current and future financial situation. A Mortgage Loan also has the flexibility of lowering your mortgage duration so that you can become debt free sooner than usual.


Thai chameleons are surprisingly tasty.
As you promised, peeled chameleons are gnarly indeed. BBQ'd chameleons are gnarlier. And eating peeled BBQ'd chameleons is a horrible thought this early in the morning!
Did you crunchy munch on the skeletor heads, too?
Me and Adam are at this very moment, watching a show on Travel Channel called "Bizarre Foods" with Andrew Zimmerman, and it just so happens he was just in your backyard, eating this *exact* dish — and showed how he caught the chameleons (some whistling to make'em move, and a fishing wire/noose on the end of a stick). And they ate that weird ant & larvae dish (weaver ants, maybe?) that you ate a while ago. Weird coincidence.
What did look good were cashew apples. Have you tried them?
> Did you crunchy munch on the skeletor heads, too?
Not much meat there. I cooked them for a long time because I was concerned about parasites/lizard cooties. By the time I deemed them finished, the heads were shrunken and dry.
> …cashew apples. Have you tried them?
No, but they look similar to rose apples, which are one of my favorite fruits here.
I have some photos in reserve (coming soon) that would destroy whatever the travel channel has the nads to air.
Hurry and change the picture please! It makes me sick to see the page pop up with those poor little skeletor chameleons with no eyes. Hurry!!!
> for just Max and family?


Effective prevention involves a diverse community of partners, data-based plan creation, and understanding and applying prevention research.
Community coalitions are increasingly used as a vehicle to foster improvements in community health.
Improving behavioral health through innovative strategies and community partnerships to prevent mental health and substance use disorders impacting Genesee County youth and adults.
Marijuana Awareness Workgroup The GCPC Office 902 E. Sixth St.
The Marijuana Awareness Workgroup meets the first Thursday of every month from 9 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. at the GCPC Office, 902 E. Sixth St. The Marijuana Awareness Workgroup aims to reduce marijuana use by youth in Genesee County by addressing parental attitudes regarding drug use, favorable youth attitudes regarding drug use, and community norms favorable to drug use. Current initiatives include educating the community on the impact of legalized recreational marijuana on youth.
The Board meets the first Friday of every month from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. at the GCPC Office, 902 E. Sixth St.
The Genesee County Prevention Coalition meets monthly on the second Tuesday of every month from 8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m. Everyone is welcome to join.


text:
package uk.gov.gds.location.importer.mongo

import com.mongodb.casbah.Imports._
import uk.gov.gds.location.importer.logging.Logging
import com.novus.salat._
import com.novus.salat.global._
import uk.gov.gds.location.importer.model.CodePoint
import uk.gov.gds.location.importer.model.AuthorityBoundary
import scala.Some
import uk.gov.gds.location.importer.model.StreetWithDescription

class MongoConnection extends Logging {

  private val mongoClient = MongoClient()

  private val db = mongoClient("locate")

  private val addresses = db.getCollection("addresses")
  private val streets = db.getCollection("streets")
  private val postcodeToAuthority = db.getCollection("postcodeToAuthority")
  private val authorityBoundaries = db.getCollection("authorityBoundaries")

  def authenticate(username: String, password: String) {
    db.authenticate(username, password)
  }

  def dropAll() {
    dropAddresses()
    dropStreets()
    dropCodePoint()
  }

  def dropAddresses() {
    addresses.drop()
  }

  def dropCodePoint() {
    streets.drop()
  }

  def dropStreets() {
    postcodeToAuthority.drop()
  }

  def insertAddresses(things: List[DBObject]) = {
    addresses.insert(things.toArray, WriteConcern.Normal)
  }

  def insertStreets(things: List[DBObject]) = {
    streets.insert(things.toArray, WriteConcern.Normal)
  }

  def insertCodePoints(things: List[DBObject]) = {
    postcodeToAuthority.insert(things.toArray, WriteConcern.Normal)
  }

  def boundaryLineForGssCode(gssCode: String, x: Double, y: Double) = {
    val point = MongoDBObject("$geometry" -> MongoDBObject("type" -> "Point", "coordinates" -> GeoCoords(x, y)))
    val b = authorityBoundaries.findOne(DBObject("properties.CODE" -> gssCode, "geometry" -> MongoDBObject("$geoIntersects" -> point)))

    if (b == null) {
      None
    } else {
      Some(grater[AuthorityBoundary].asObject(b))
    }
  }

  def boundaryLineForLatLong(x: Double, y: Double) = {
    val point = MongoDBObject("$geometry" -> MongoDBObject("type" -> "Point", "coordinates" -> GeoCoords(x, y)))
    val b = authorityBoundaries.findOne(DBObject("geometry" -> MongoDBObject("$geoIntersects" -> point)))
    if (b == null) {
      None
    } else {
      Some(grater[AuthorityBoundary].asObject(b))
    }
  }

  def streetForUsrn(usrn: String) = {
    val a = streets.findOne(DBObject("usrn" -> usrn))
    if (a == null) {
      None
    } else {
      Some(grater[StreetWithDescription].asObject(a))
    }
  }

  def codePointForPostcode(postcode: String) = {
    val a = postcodeToAuthority.findOne(DBObject("postcode" -> postcode.toLowerCase.replaceAll(" ", "")))
    if (a == null) {
      None
    } else {
      Some(grater[CodePoint].asObject(a))
    }
  }

  def addAddressIndexes() {
    logger.info("indexing geo lookups - needs mongo 2.6")
    //authorityBoundaries.ensureIndex(DBObject("properties.CODE" -> 1))

    logger.info("indexing postcode")
    addresses.ensureIndex(DBObject("postcode" -> 1))

    logger.info("indexing uprn")
    addresses.ensureIndex(DBObject("uprn" -> 1), "uprn-unq-idx", true)

    logger.info("indexing postcode, electoral")
    addresses.ensureIndex(DBObject("postcode" -> 1, "details.isElectoral" -> 1, "details.isPostalAddress" -> 1, "presentation.property" -> 1, "presentation.street" -> 1, "presentation.town" -> 1, "presentation.area" -> 1, "presentation.locality" -> 1, "presentation.postcode" -> 1, "uprn" -> 1, "gssCode" -> 1), DBObject("name" -> "postcode_presentation_idx"))

    logger.info("indexing gssCode")
    addresses.ensureIndex(DBObject("gssCode" -> 1))
  }

  def addStreetIndexes() {
    logger.info("indexing usrn on street")
    streets.ensureIndex(DBObject("usrn" -> 1))
  }

  def addCodePointIndexes() {
    logger.info("indexing postcode on codepoint")
    postcodeToAuthority.ensureIndex(DBObject("postcode" -> 1))
    postcodeToAuthority.ensureIndex(DBObject("gssCode" -> 1))
  }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Matthew E. White, 'Circle 'Round The Sun' (Live) In "Circle 'Round The Sun," the innovative musician turns a love song into a moving gospel elegy. Watch White perform it live in WFUV's studios.
Matthew E. White impressed us with his arranging skills and thoughtful artistry on his first album, 2012's Big Inner. Now the innovative musician, based out of Richmond, Va., is back with Fresh Blood. His new songs not only feature more carefully crafted melodies, but also demonstrate White's impressive growth as a lyricist.
"Circle 'Round The Sun" is a well-worn phrase in old blues tunes, and it served as the inspiration behind White's song of the same name. What started as a love song turned into a moving gospel elegy, supported by a slow and stirring arrangement built around guitar, bass, percussion and lap steel. Here, White and his band give an enchanting performance live in WFUV's studios.
Find Matthew E. White's full archived performance at WFUV.org.


text:
Home Trucks & SUVsTrucks
The 2021 Ram 1500 TRX's Hellcat Engine Won't Last Much Longer
by Allison Barfield on September 21, 2021
When it comes to super trucks like the 2021 Ram 1500 TRX or Ford F-150 Raptor, it's all about power. But the Ram 1500 TRX's Hellcat engine might be on its way out. But why would they get rid of such a powerful engine?
The 2021 Ram 1500 TRX Hellcat engine is on the chopping block
2021 Ram 1500 TRX | Stellantis
Dodge CEO, Tim Kuniskis, said that the days of an iron block supercharged 6.2-liter V8 are numbers. This means that the Hellcat engine in the 2021 Ram 1500 TRX might bite the dust soon.
Currently, the Hellcat engine is expected to be available in the 2023 Ram TRX. But as massive V8 engines are discontinued, it may receive a different option. Tim Kuniskis mentioned that these engines are being phased out due to compliance costs, not a lack of demand.
Over the past five years, they've sold over 50,000 Hellcats. This was way beyond what their initial expectations were. These figures are impressive because the 2021 Dodge Challenger Hellcat SRT starts at $58,995, and sales are booming. Plus, the base price of the $80,995 didn't stop the Dodge Durango SRT Hellcat from selling out.
What problems does the TRX Hellcat engine face?
In the 2021 Ram 1500 TRX, the supercharged 6.2-liter V8 engine is thirsty. It gets an EPA-estimated 10 mpg in the city and up to 14 mpg on the highway. But at least it provides 702 hp and 650 lb-ft of torque.
Being thirsty is part of the problem as emission standards rise. It will be more expensive to transform this engine into a complaint option. Plus, the industry is being impacted by rising fuel costs.
Also, the entire automotive industry is embracing electrification. Electric vehicles are becoming more accessible from a price point. These vehicles are becoming more performance-based instead of economy-based too.
Dode is working on a few powerful electrified models, and Kunikis is extremely excited about them. He believes that new technology will save muscle cars and trucks this time around. In the 1970's they went away due to a variety of factors including high fuel prices, rising insurance rates, and strict emission rules.
What does the future look like for the Ram 1500 TRX?
2021 Ram 1500 TRX | Ram
The 2021 Ram 1500 TRX hasn't been out long and serves as the most potent super-truck available. So, it probably won't have many changes for 2022. It will keep its Hellcat engine for now, and we could see an electric option in the future.
Aside from a few new unique colors, the 2022 RAM TRX could gain Wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. It could gain a few new interior colors as well. But the significant changes won't happen until the refreshed 2023 model arrives.
The 2023 Ram TRX will have a new exterior look with an updated headlight design and refreshed interior. It could gain a screen larger than the current 12-inch option too. If an SRT version arrives, it will be lowered.
You can get started with a Hellcat Ram TRX for about $72,390. Pricing for the 2022 model isn't expected to increase, but it could rise in price by a few hundred dollars. The 2023 model could cost more, but we will have to wait and see.
RELATED: The Ram TRX Wins Best Winter Truck After Getting Stuck in Snow
Tags:1500 ram TRX


The wait is over now the first look of Khiladi Akshay Kumar Upcoming movie BOSS is revealed now. The upcoming action comedy movie also stars Mithun Chakraborty, Shiv Pandit, Aditi Rao Hydari, Johnny Lever and Danny Denzongpa. After the tow Action Packed movie "Khiladi 786" and "Rowdy Rathore" once again action is back with some action. The teaser is out, announcing the trailer of the film, which is to release on August 27.


text:
CIS Heads of State to Assemble in Bishkek
Kyrgyzstan Materials 22 September 2008 11:59 (UTC +04:00)
Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, 22 September / Trend corr. R.Mashadihasanli / The next meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of heads of state and foreign ministers will take place in Bishkek on 9 and 10 October, the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry told Trend correspondent.
At present Kyrgyz President K.S.Bakiyev is chairing the CIS Council of heads and Foreign Minister E.O.Karabayev ї the CIS Council of foreign ministers.
All heads of Commonwealth countries are expected to participate in the work of summit at the highest level. The agenda of the CIS Council of heads includes 18 draft documents. One of important issues of the agenda will be a draft CIS economic development strategy for period by 2020 and it was designated to assist participant-countries in harmonious development of economic life, stable rise of economy, employment, full use of production capacity and improvement of living conditions of people throughout the CIS member-countries.
The heads of state are expected to adopt a document to determine the power engineering as a key sphere of the Commonwealth countriesї interaction in 2009, cooperation in counteraction of illegal migration in 2009-2011 and announcement 2009 as the Youth year.
The agenda of the CIS Council of foreign ministers includes 26 issues. The issues will be examined at the upcoming meetings of the CIS Council of heads of state and foreign ministers. Meetings will focus on some organizational and protocol issues on awarding Commonwealth Diploma, chairmanship at the CIS and holding next meetings of the CIS Council of heads and foreign ministers.
The correspondent can be contacted at - [email protected]


text:
Q: Replacing a semicolon with a space Im trying to run text analysis on a list of keywords, but they are listed like a;b 2;c, so when I use tm to remove punctuation it becomes ab 2c, and i assume this breaks my frequently used terms analysis some how.
Is there a way to replace semicolons with spaces?
tm_map(Keywordcorpus,removePunctuation)
*EDIT I tried using gsub but the result became a value, and not in the same list as my other data! what went wrong?

A: I would guess you are messing up your assignements
See if this works for you
vector_of_characters <- c("a;b;c",
                       "a;Bc;d")

gsub(';', " ",vector_of_characters)

Data
df_character_row <- data.frame(vector_of_characters)

What won't work
This fails at finding the correct column
gsub(';', " ",df_character_row)

This fails at returning the value to the column
just_a_vector_of_characters <- gsub(';', " ",df_character_row$vector_of_characters)

Right answer
df_character_row$vector_of_characters <- gsub(';',
                                              " ",
                                              df_character_row$vector_of_characters)

That is maybe good enough reason to use the tidyverse or you should read assignments
library(tidyverse)
tb_character_row <- tibble(vector_of_characters)

tb_character_row

tb_character_row %>%
  mutate(new_vector_of_characters = vector_of_characters %>%
           str_replace_all(';',' '))

If for some god forsaken reason you find yourself with more than 1000 character columns
imagine_big_tibble <- tibble(a= vector_of_characters,b = vector_of_characters)

Maybe don't
imagine_big_tibble %>%
  pivot_longer(names_to = "old_column",
               values_to = "characters_in_there",
               cols = everything())

But if you really need to
imagine_big_tibble %>%
  map(str_replace_all, ";", " ")

Or
imagine_big_tibble %>%
  mutate_all( ~ str_replace_all(., pattern = ";", replacement = " "))

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: why is Photos using so much space on my iPhone? We have two iPhones, one with 16GB and one with 128GB. Both of them show a very high storage use of Photos, to the extent that the phone becomes unusable for the 16GB phone (the 128GB still has a way to go). The usage for the 16GB phone, for examples, shows around 5(!) GB on photos. I can't understand why this is the case for either phone, because I am a (paying) member of iCloud, and I ensure the pictures are uploaded there following instructions I saw online (from Apple Support).
What could be the reason Photos is using so much space on these two phones, in spite of the use of iCloud?


text:
create database tiny;
\c tiny;

create table public.user (
  id serial primary key,
  nombre varchar(20) not null,
  apellido varchar(20) not null
);

insert into public.user(id, nombre, apellido) values(nextval('user_id_seq'), 'jorge', 'ramirez');
insert into public.user(id, nombre, apellido) values(nextval('user_id_seq'), 'juan', 'perez');


Peter Lynch is known as one of the great stock investors in the world. He brought simplicity to the investment philosophy . He has shared his knowledge with the investing masses through his writings, including his two seminal books "One Up on Wall Street" and "Beating the Street". The ideas and lessons from his writings are timeless and still transferable to investors across a broad spectrum of skill levels.
I have structured the lessons from Peter lynch into few sections.
Your investor's edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It's something you already have.
You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.
Over the past three decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by herd of professional investors.
Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investors. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.
If you study 10 companies, you'll find 1 for which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you'll find 5.
There are pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market - companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street.
If you the have the stomach for stocks, but neither the time nor the inclination to do the homework, invest in equity mutual funds.
Here, it's a good idea to diversify.
You should own a few different kinds of funds, with managers who pursue different styles of investing: growth, value , small companies, large companies, etc. Investing in six of the same kind of fund is not diversification.
Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or few years.
In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock.
This disparity is the key to making money. It pays to be patient and to own successful companies.
You have to know what you own and why you own it. "This baby is a cinch to go up!" doesn't count.
If you can't find any companies that you think are attractive, put you money in the bank until you discover some.
Never invest in a company without understanding its finances.
The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets.
Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk you money on it.
Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold, non growth industries are consistent big winners.
Buy the companies with staying power.
Also, wait for the industry to show signs of revival.
Buggy whips and radio tubes were troubled industries that never came back.
In every industry and every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professional have discovered them.
You can afford to be patient - even if you missed Wal-Mart in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own stock options. You can take advantage of the faster-growing economies by investing some portion of your assets in an overseas fund with a good record.
A stock-market decline is as routine as January blizzard in Colorado. If you're prepared , it can't hurt you.
A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.
If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.
Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters.
Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.
Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market.
Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the company in which you're invested.
Owning stocks is like having children - don't get involved with more than you can handle.
The part-time stockpicker probably has time to follow 8-12 companies, and to buy and sell shares as conditions warrant.
There don't have to be more than 5 companies in the portfolio at any time.
In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won't outperform the money left under the mattress.
If you invest $1,000 in a stock, all you can lose is $1,000, but you stand to gain $10,000 or even $50,000 over time if you're patient.
The average person can concentrate on a few good companies , while the fund manager is forced to diversify.
By owning too many stocks, you lose the advantage of concentration.
It only takes of handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.
The capital-gains tax penalizes investors who do too much switching from one mutual fund to another. If you're invested in one fund or several funds that have done well, don't abandon them capriciously. Stick with them.
Long shots always miss the mark.


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In der Volksrepublik China ist das chinesische Guojiaji Fengjing Mingshengqu (国家级风景名胜区, Nationales Gebiet von landschaftlichem und geschichtlichem Interesse) die Entsprechung von Nationalpark (), wie er außerhalb Chinas angewendet wird. Die Einzelheiten sind in der Richtlinie zur Entwicklung landschaftlich wertvoller Gebieten aus dem Jahr 2000 festgelegt, die 1999 vom Ministerium für Bauwesen beschlossen wurde. Der Begriff wird im offiziellen Logo der Nationalparks in China aufgegriffen.

Im Jahre 2017 waren in China 208 Nationalparks ausgewiesen. Bis August 2012 waren allerdings viele Gebiete bei der IUCN noch nicht in entsprechende Kategorien eingetragen. Ein Gebiet wurde in die IUCN-Kategorie Ia eingestuft und somit international anerkannt, 74 Gebiete konnten noch nicht zugeordnet werden und in insgesamt 179 Fällen lag noch kein ausreichendes Datenmaterial für die Registrierung bei der IUCN vor.

Die Fläche der einzelnen Nationalparks erstreckt sich in den meisten Fällen über das Gebiet hinaus, das der offizielle Name bezeichnet. Ein Beispiel ist etwa der Taihu-Nationalpark (太湖国家级风景名胜区) mit einer Fläche von 3.091 km², der aus 13 Landschaftszonen in Suzhou, Wuxi und Changzhou besteht (Mudu (木渎), Shihu (石湖), Guangfu (光福), Dongshan (东山), Xishan (西山), Luzhi (甪直), Tongli (同里), Yushan (虞山), Meiliang-See (梅粱湖), Lihu-See (蠡湖), Xihui (锡惠), Mashan (马山), Yangxian (阳羡)) und zwei isolierten Sehenswürdigkeiten, die außerhalb der Parks liegen (der Taibo-Tempel (泰伯庙) und die Grabstätte von Taibo (泰伯墓)).

Die Ausweisung der Nationalparks geschah bisher in 7 Reihen:

 Erste Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 8. November 1982
 Zweite Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 1. August 1988
 Dritte Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 10. Januar 1994
 Vierte Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 17. Mai 2002
 Fünfte Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 13. Januar 2004
 Sechste Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 31. Dezember 2005
 Siebte Reihe, Proklamationsdatum: 28. Dezember 2009 (noch nicht in der Tabelle unten enthalten)

Liste der Nationalparks

Koordinaten und Flächen nach National Park of China (s. Weblinks)

Siehe auch
 Liste der Nationalparks
 Liste des UNESCO-Welterbes (Asien und Ozeanien)
 Liste der Biosphärenreservate: China
 Denkmäler der Volksrepublik China

Weblinks
 Ministry of Land and Resources (en.)
 Ministry of Water Resources (en.)
 National Park of China (en.)
 Zhongguo guojia zhongdian fengjing mingsheng qu (chin.)
 Die Nationalparks in China (I), (II)

Einzelnachweise

China
!
Nationalparks


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In A Team Victory, Redskins Do Just Enough To Get Past Seahawks
While the Redskins were outgained by nearly 200 yards on Sunday afternoon, Washington made key plays late against the Seahawks to secure a 17-14 victory in Seattle.
Battered and bruised, the Washington Redskins had few believers entering Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks. The team was without four of its five starting offensive linemen, tight ends Jordan Reed and Niles Paul, slot receiver/punt returner Jamison Crowder and defensive lineman Matt Ioannidis.
Washington was also playing in front of the Seahawks' 12th Man against a squad that entered Sunday's game riding a four-game winning streak. Ultimately none of those obstacles stopped the Redskins from a 17-14 victory.
"The guys are feeling great. To come here and get a win in this place is a great tribute to them. They showed a lot of mental toughness today," said Redskins head coach Jay Gruden. "Things didn't go our way early but the defense and special teams kept us in the game. It was just a total team victory. The pass rush, the coverage, the defense was outstanding.
"Offensively we sputtered, we couldn't run the ball, we couldn't protect and couldn't do a lot of things. When it counted and they took the lead, Kirk [Cousins] had two outstanding passes and the guys made plays. I'm just very proud of all those guys."
Indeed, the Redskins struggled early on the offensive side the ball. Washington's first five possessions netted just 16 total yards. The third possession was easily the worst, lasting just one play that resulted in a safety of Cousins.
Midway through the second quarter, though, the Redskins final got some offensive movement off a 13-play drive that went 71 yards. Rob Kelley capped off the drive with a one-yard plunge into the end zone.
Then early in the third quarter, the Redskins extended their lead to 10-2 off a Nick Rose 28-yard field goal.
It would be the last points the Redskins would score until the last minute of the game, as Seattle stormed back to take a 14-10 lead after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter. But the Redskins took back the lead for good with 59 seconds left, as Cousins engineered a four-play, 70-yard touchdown drive highlighted by two 30-plus-yard completions.
"It's a team game. It's not over until it's 0:00, and you know we gave up that one, but our offense – that's where complimentary football comes in – our offense stepped up and made a 70-yard drive to win the game against the Seahawks," said safety D.J. Swearinger. "It's incredible. It's great for the offense's confidence and for us to go out there and win the game at the end of the game on a Hail Mary, it's speaks a lot of value for our team and where we can take this team. I'm looking forward to getting back to work, grinding and getting another 'W.'"
The Seahawks, of course, had one final chance at either tying the game or even winning it in the final minute. The probability of either outcome increased when Russell Wilson pushed Seattle into Washington territory with less than 30 seconds left on the clock.
Postgame: Redskins Beat Seahawks!
Check out the photos of the postgame celebration after the Redskins' victory over the Seahawks.
But a sack of the mobile quarterback stopped the clock with four seconds left at the Redskins' 46-yard line. Wilson dropped back in hopes of another heroic game-winning throw, but his last attempt was forced incomplete.
"It was a sigh of relief," said cornerback Josh Norman. "I mean, everybody coming in here and cheering, everybody joyous. It was just [like], 'Gosh, man, finally, we catch a break somewhere.' But it started with the physical style playing of football. There's no substitute for it, you've got guys out there buying into that. You see what happens when you play that type of ball all the way down to the last seconds of the game. You're going to come up with something. You're going to come up victorious, and that's what we did."
Linebacker Will Compton was disappointed that the Redskins allowed Wilson to connect with Doug Baldwin for a wide-open 30-yard touchdown after the two-minute warning, but knew the defense would be ready to flip the script on the Seahawks' final drive.
"Hats off to everybody. Hats off to the D-line, keeping those guys off of us, us linebackers. Credit the secondary, always being on the same page, understanding the adjustments that we needed to make," said Compton, who finished the game with eight tackles along with three passes defensed and an interception.
While the Redskins were able to score the key upset victory, they still have three tough games looming for the rest of November.
First is a tilt with the 6-2 Minnesota Vikings at FedExField before facing the 6-2 New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. To round out the month is a Thursday Night Football showdown with the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
All three games will be good tests at determining the Redskins' standing as a potential playoff team. Sunday's victory was a good start.
"I feel like we can build on this," said tight end Vernon Davis. "We can take this and carry it over into practice, and then in practice we can continue to add and just keep getting better, staying positive and keeping the same enthusiasm we've had since the beginning of the season and just going and winning games."


2015 International Workshop on Structural Engineering and Applied Mechanics (SEAM 2015) aims to bring together academic scientists, leading engineers, industry researchers and scholar students to exchange and share their experiences and research results about all aspects of structural engineering and applied mechanics, and discuss the practical challenges encountered and the solutions adopted.
SEAM 2015 will be held in Hong Kong, 30 - 31 December 2015. All SEAM 2015 papers will be published in CEEE 2015 proceedings, which will be submitted to ISTP (CPCI) for indexing. You are invited to submit papers in all areas of structural engineering and applied mechanics.
All SEAM 2015 papers will be published in CEEE 2015 proceedings , which will be submitted to ISTP(CPCI) for indexing.
Manuscripts should be written in English. The minimum length of any paper will be 6 printed pages. Whenever applicable, submissions must include the following elements: title, authors, affiliations, abstract, keywords, introduction, main text, conclusions and references.


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HMRC now viewing emails of taxpayers
We have found out that figures show Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs officials made almost 14,400 authorised views of "communications data" on taxpayers during tax evasion investigations.
This compares to more than 11,500 such views in 2010, which equates to a rise of almost 25 per cent, according to statistics released under Freedom of Information laws.
Using the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000, HMRC can access details on what websites are viewed by taxpayers, where a mobile phone call was made or received and the date and time of emails, texts and phone calls.
From October 2011 to the end of September last year, HMRC was given 172 authorisations for "directed surveillance", covert surveillance, mainly in public places. This had decreased from the previous year.
But critics today accused tax officials of pursuing wrong targets.
"HMRC should be focusing on the estimated £35bn lost tax, not snooping on hard-working people," said Stephen McPartland, the Conservative MP for Stevenage who is campaigning for large companies to be more open about tax.
It is not clear how many times the surveillance has led to a successful prosecution for tax evasion or whether those found to be innocent are told that they have been spied on.
HMRC did not respond to requests for this information from the members of the press.
Officials also refused to disclose how many times it had been given warrants to intercept and read peoples' private emails, or listen to their phone calls.
This is the most intrusive type of surveillance, which needs to be authorised by the Home Secretary.
It also refused to disclose the number of times it had carried out "intrusive surveillance", which can include covertly filming a person's house, or bugging their property or car.
An HMRC spokesman said: "Tackling serious organised crime is a priority for us and access to communications data and directed surveillance have a vital role to play in meeting that challenge.
"In 2011 communications data enabled us to prevent £850m of tax revenue being diverted into the pockets of fraudsters.
"Our use of these powers is subject to regular independent inspection, ensuring it is both proportionate and lawful."
Fortunately at Tax Affinity Accountants we are authorised HMRC agents and can quickly and effectively help in all matters investigations and penalties.
Also read this article in the Telegraph. Tax Affinity Accountants are the small business experts, helping the public in grow their businesses in Surbiton, Surrey.


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In 1876, a man named Henry Wickham smuggled seventy thousand rubber tree seeds out of the rainforests of Brazil and delivered them to Victorian England's most prestigious scientists at Kew Gardens. Those seeds, planted around the world in England's colonial outposts, gave rise to the great rubber boom of the early twentieth century—an explosion of entrepreneurial and scientific industry that would change the world. The story of how Wickham got his hands on those seeds—a sought-after prize for which many suffered and died—is the stuff of legend. In this utterly engaging account of obsession, greed, bravery, and betrayal, author and journalist Joe Jackson brings to life a classic Victorian fortune hunter and the empire that fueled, then abandoned, him.
In his single-minded pursuit of glory, Wickham faced deadly insects, poisonous snakes, horrific illnesses, and, ultimately, the neglect and contempt of the very government he wished to serve. His idealism and determination, as well as his outright thievery, perfectly encapsulate the essential nature of Great Britain's colonial adventure in South America. The Thief at the End of the Worldis a thrilling true story of reckless courage and ambition.
Página 364 - History of a Voyage to the Land of Brazil, Otherwise Called America. Containing the Navigation and the Remarkable Things Seen on the Sea by the Author; the Behavior of Villegagnon in That Country; the Customs and Strange Ways of Life of the American Savages; Together with the Description of Various Animals, Trees, Plants, and Other Singular Things Completely Unknown over Here.
Joe Jackson is the author of one novel and four nonfiction titles, including Leavenworth Train, which was a finalist for the 2002 Edgar Award for Best Fact Crime. He worked for twelve years as an investigative reporter for the Virginian-Pilot, covering criminal justice and death row.


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Q: Google Captcha - How to pass with Selenium or HtmlUnit I wonder if anyone has ever managed to simulate the validation of Google Captcha (the one that is asked to do some selection of images according to the response).
Has anyone had this problem?
I would like through the coordinates that the framework could simulate the click of the array of images according to the values reported. Example, image {0; 3; 7}


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Working bilingually in Wales by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: vcs, volarts, Wales
On Thursday I was at the Senedd in Cardiff – the spectacular home of the Welsh Assembly – to attend the VAW Welsh Language Policy Review event. Representatives of voluntary arts umbrella bodies heard presentations from the Welsh Language Board, Estyn Law (an organisation funded by the Welsh Assembly to support voluntary organisations in developing bilingual working), the Welsh Language Officer from the Wales Millennium Centre and Alun Ffred Jones, the Minister for Heritage. The Minister started by saying "this is an interesting and exciting period for the Welsh language and for Wales". The Wales Assembly Government wants to create a bilingual Wales: "a Wales where the Welsh and English languages can coexist and people can choose which language to use in their everyday lives". He told the voluntary arts umbrella bodies: "you have a special opportunity to contribute to the task of making the Welsh language an essential part of Welsh identity" and urged them to consider how the Welsh language could be integrated into their activities for the benefit of all. Alun Ffred Jones referred to the new powers being requested by the Wales Assembly Government (announced at the beginning of February) which would give the Assembly the right to legislate on the Welsh Language. He finished by saying: "The Welsh language is something for all of us, not just those who speak Welsh. We should all be able to take ownership of it."
Throughout the event there was a strong emphasis on understanding the needs of Welsh speakers and investigating what aspects of bilingual working should be prioritised – particularly in situations where resources are limited. There was a clear message that effective bilingual working does not need to involve translation of every piece of print material you produce and that, in many cases, the recruitment of more Welsh speaking volunteers to provide opportunities for dialogue in the Welsh language is more important than translation services. It was a really interesting day and great to meet so many umbrella bodies. Congratulations to Jacquy, Sioned and Gwenan for a very successful event.
NCVO Annual Conference 2009 by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: England, funding, ncvo, OTS, politics, vcs, volarts, volunteering
On Wednesday I was at The Brewery in the City of London to attend the annual conference of the National Council for Voluntary Organisations. The NCVO conference is always a really enjoyable, thought-provoking day and this year was no exception. The keynote speaker in the morning was Vince Cable, Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrat Party and Shadow Chancellor. He started by suggesting there was a danger for the voluntary and community sector of "drowning in a bath of warm words" as politicians of all persuasions queued up to say nice things about the sector. He focussed on the effects of the recession on the sector, identifying a "scissors crisis" of diminishing income at the same time as rising needs. The situation was not, however, unremittingly negative: "in a time of crisis we may get a sense of solidarity with people becoming less selfish and looking more to their local community". It is also important to remember that "for the vast majority of people, this crisis doesn't affect them: for many it will pass largely unnoticed." Dr Cable finished by saying that, with the voluntary and community sector now representing 10% of UK GDP, it could be a key player while the private sector is paralysed.
I then attended a breakout session on 'futures for civil society', led by Geoff Mulgan of the Young Foundation who is Chair of the Carnegie Enquiry into the Future of Civil Society. We looked in detail at the short term challenges for civil society and the long term questions coming out the other side of the recession. We worked in small groups to identify particular challenges for civil society and actions to address them. A common theme emerged around the economic crisis providing an opportunity for civil society to pull together to realise its collective potential. But we also discussed the difficulty of developing 'civil society' as a collective entity whilst preserving the unique strength and resilience which stems from its composition of a multitude of small, diverse, independent organisations and individuals.
In the afternoon I took part in an excellent session on the future of 'membership' led by Matthew Taylor of the RSA. Through presentations from Karl Wilding, Head of Research at NCVO, and Alex Hunt of the National Trust, and a lively group discussion, we looked at changing notions of 'membership' and the effects of technology, consumerism and demographics on membership organisations. Among many interesting observations, the one idea that has really stuck in my mind is the "inverse activist law" but I'm afraid Chatham House Rules prevent me from saying any more! Matthew Taylor concluded that:
· membership organisations are not competing with each other
· there is a need for a new generation of civic collaborative community organisations
· many of us are holding on to outdated membership structures
This session marked the launch of a project looking at membership issues which is being undertaken by the NCVO Third Sector Foresight Team with the RSA: I look forward to following their progress.
In his annual 'state of the sector' address, NCVO Chief Executive, Stuart Etherington, paid tribute to the Government Ministers and officials who had worked hard to deliver the recession action plan for the third sector. He said we were now seeing the limitations of the market and the state: in tougher times ahead conventional solutions will not always work. "We need to develop a new approach driven by the values and methods that civil society embodies." Stuart launched NCVO's new Civil Society Framework for Action which seeks long term sources of funding, support for social cohesion, no restriction of the campaigning role of the sector, support for volunteering and collective action on climate change. He talked about the new European Civil Society network and called on the UK Government to create a Department for Civil Society with its own Secretary of State, its own budget and its own powers. Stuart finished by saying "it is an active civil society that makes our country the wonderful place it is." Baroness Jill Pitkeathly, Chair of the Office of the Third Sector Advisory Body, replied to Stuart Etherington's speech, emphasising that politicians and policy makers are people too and saying that positive and supportive messages will be listened to and remembered. The final keynote speaker was Benjamin Barber, an American political commentator and former advisor to President Clinton. In a rousing speech he suggested that democracy depends on a healthy civil society and that civil society will be essential to "the restoration of trust on which the future of democracy around the world will depend".
The NCVO conference closed with a drinks reception hosted by The Guardian, at which the Minister for the Third Sector, Kevin Brennan, praised the work NCVO had done in setting up the third sector recession summit which had led to the Government's recession action plan for the sector.
Overseeing the Cultural Olympiad by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: ace, arts, England, olympics, volarts, volunteering
On Monday I was at Arts Council England's London office to meet Leonie Sakey, ACE's Vision 2012 Project Manager. Since I last saw Leonie she has been joined by a team of staff to oversee ACE's involvement in the Cultural Olympiad. I outlined the progress we have been making in relation to the 2012 World Shakespeare Festival, the Olympics Volunteering Legacy Programme, our Legacy Trust project in Scotland, the planned 'Up for Arts' project in Liverpool with the Media Trust and BBC Radio Merseyside, the Office of the Third Sector participation portal and a further 'Once in a Lifetime' briefing for voluntary arts groups. Leonie thought the work we were doing was great and it would make a lot of sense to develop a Voluntary Arts Olympics Officer post. She also updated me on the first Inspire Mark projects, ACE's 'Artists Taking the Lead' project, and the changes to the 'hosting' arrangements for the LOCOG regional Creative Programmers following the demise of the Regional Cultural Consortia in England (which will see most of the Creative Programmers being hosted by ACE). It was encouraging to see how much is now going on in relation to the Cultural Olympiad – making it all the more important to ensure the voluntary arts are properly represented.
Working with infrastructure organisations by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: England, ncvo, vcs, volarts
Today I have been at NCVO for the latest in a series of meetings about how NCVO works with other infrastructure organisations. This is proving to be a really interesting process, opening up a complex debate about the nature and needs of infrastructure bodies. I fear we may be finding more questions than answers but it's wonderful to see NCVO taking the time and care to think through these issues.
Arts Council England's national participation campaign by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: ace, arts, DCMS, DIUS, England, OTS, volarts
On Thursday afternoon Reemer and I met Clara Goldsmith, the new head of Arts Council England's national arts participation campaign. The campaign will be launched in Spring 2010 and is likely to involve a range of broadcast and commercial partners. We stressed the need to involve the voluntary arts sector from the start to ensure that those people encouraged to start participating in the arts are given routes to their local voluntary arts groups to ensure sustainable opportunities to continue their participation. We also discussed linking the ACE campaign website to the OTS participation portal and the proposed DIUS portal for informal adult learning.
Amateur Arts Partnership Development Programme steering group by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: ace, arts, DCMS, England, research, training, volarts
On Thursday I was at the Arts Council England national office for a meeting of the Amateur Arts Partnership Development Programme steering group. (This is the name we have now agreed for the ACE/DCMS action plan responding to the conclusions of the 'Our Creative Talent' research.) We looked at proposals for a more coherent and consistent approach to the amateur arts across ACE's regional offices which were to be presented to the ACE Executive Board meeting later on Thursday. We also discussed proposals on voluntary arts regional networking and capacity-building sector which we had developed at the facilitated session held at the VAE office in Newcastle last week. The steering group supported our proposals and we agreed to start a business planning process to clarify what resources would be required to implement the various elements of regional networking and capacity-building – and how these might be funded.
Meeting Kevin Brennan, Minister for the Third Sector by Robin Simpson
Filed under: meetings | Tags: England, funding, olympics, OTS, politics, vcs, volarts, volunteering
On Wednesday Reemer and I went through extensive security to enter the Cabinet Office at 70 Whitehall (right next to Downing Street) where we met Kevin Brennan, Minister for the Third Sector. The Minister was extremely interested to hear about the voluntary arts sector – being a voluntary artist himself, as a member of the parliamentary rock group 'MP4'. He appreciated the need to ensure the arts is seen as a major part of the wider voluntary sector and was keen to do whatever he could to help us influence 'mainstream' voluntary sector support and other Government departments. He urged us to encourage local voluntary arts groups to apply to the Government's new Grassroots Grants scheme and emphasised that the planned OTS online participation portal should provide a major opportunity for the voluntary arts. It was a very positive and encouraging first meeting.