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Regional frequency analysis for consecutive hour rainfall using L-moments approach in Jeju Island, Korea
Kanak Kanti Kar ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6021-52791,
Sung-Kee Yang1,
Jun-Ho Lee1 &
Fahad Khan Khadim2
Extreme rainfall events are enormously frequent and abrupt in tropical areas like the Jeju Island of South Korea, impacting the hydrological functions as well as the social and economic situation. Rainfall magnitude and frequency distribution related information are essential for water system design, water resources management and hydro-meteorological emergencies. This study therefore has investigated the use of L-moments approach for hourly regional rainfall frequency estimation so as to ensure better accuracy and efficiency of the estimation process from the usually limited data sets.
The Hancheon catchment was considered as the primary study domain and several best fitted statistical tools were used to analyze consecutive hour rainfall data from five hydro-meteorological stations (Jeju, Ara, Eorimok, Witsaeorum and Jindallaebat) adjacent to the area. The cluster analysis and discordancy measure categorized the Hancheon catchment in three regions (1, 2 and 3). Based on the L-moments heterogeneity and goodness-of-fit measure, Gumbel and generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution were identified as robust distributions for the study area. The RMSE ratios for the catchment were found as 0.014 to 0.237 for Gumbel and 0.115 to 0.301 for GEV distribution. The linear regression analysis of the different rainfall quantiles inferred r-square values from 0.842 to 0.974.
The L-moments and other statistical information derived from the study can be useful for important hydrological design considerations in connection with flood risk management, mitigation and safety; whereas the methodological framework of the study may be suitable for other small scaled catchment areas with high slope.
Extreme hydro-meteorological occurrences, such as heavy rainfall, floods, storms and typhoons are regarded as being the most costly natural disaster risk and leading research hotspots, bearing wide scope of scientific applications relevant to the field of hydrology and water resources engineering (Bruce 1994; Obasi 1994). The coastal parts of East Asia are extensively and continuously hit by climatic disasters and leaving substantial effects on the hydrological functions (Jun 1989; Shabri et al. 2011; Chang et al. 2012; Cai et al. 2014). Driven by this, the study attempts to carry out a reliable estimation of extreme rainfall occurrences and corresponding regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the L-moments approach, so as to ensure efficient design and control of the hydrological systems of South Korea.
The Hancheon catchment of Jeju Island, South Korea has been considered as the study domain, which covers an area of 37.39 sq. km, exhibiting dynamic and distinct hydrological characteristics. Over the years, the Jeju Island experienced several typhoon events and especially in the last decade, a number of typhoons such as, Typhoon Nari, Khanun, Borlaben, Sanba and Nakri hit the Island, killing a total number of 11 people and causing property damages worth around 1.41 million USD ($).
The regional frequency analysis is a continuously developing insight used by local disaster management departments, while many researchers also find the approach as a contemporary method to define identical hydrological regions, viewing it as a modification over the typical probability moments (e.g. Bradley 1998; Parida et al. 1998; Fowler and Kilsby 2003; Kumar and Chatterjee 2005; Wallis et al. 2007; Noto and Loggia 2009; Saf 2009; Shahzadi et al. 2013; Devi and Choudhury 2013; Liu et al. 2015). Um et al. (2010) studied five distribution models to examine extreme rainfall events in Jeju Island using elevation and geographic coordinates as modeling inputs. The study discussed multiple non-linear form, linear regressions, an intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship curve and obtained model accuracies in the range of 18–86%. There has been a number of identical studies up to now, exploring and updating different working methods for RFA of extreme rainfall occurrences, the most prominent ones are Cluster analysis (Easterling 1989; Venkatesh and Jose 2007), L-moments analysis (Hosking 1990), L-moments associated with cluster analysis (Schaefer 1990; Guttman 1993; Wallis et al. 2007; Satyanarayana and Srinivas 2008), spatial correlation analysis (Gadgil and Yadumani 1993), homogeneity test (Wiltshire 1986) and regional frequency analysis techniques (Eslamian and Feizi 2007; Ngongondo et al. 2011; Hossein and Arash 2014; Zhang and Hall, 2004). Due to the data shortage and hydro-meteorological complexity, the L-moment approach for RFA was carried out to ensure efficient estimation of extreme rainfall occurrences, taking account of the spatial variability of the study area.
The primary intent of this study is to carry out an efficient RFA of extreme rainfall by applying the L-moment approach initially developed by Hosking and Wallis (1997). The specific aims of this research study are as follows: a) to carry out a RFA method of 6-h, 12-h, 24-h maximum consecutive rainfall series using L-moment approach, b) to evaluate the accuracy of design rainfall and reliability on goodness-of-fit test by consecutive hour rainfall (likely to be more accurate than daily and monthly rainfall), and c) to provide an appropriate estimation with 90% confidence intervals for the uncertainty analysis. This information perceived from the study may provide useful probability distribution upshots for extreme rainfall events.
Study area and data description
The Hancheon catchment encompasses the geographic coordinates of 32°54′ to 33°31′ in the north (latitude) and 126°30′ to 126°33′ along the east (longitude) (Fig. 1). The catchment area covers only 2% of the entire Jeju Island, but its orographic condition significantly influences the variability of the rainfall. It has a varying altitude ranging from 150 m to 1950 m above the mean sea level, with a mean slope of 10.8 degree (Kar et al. 2015). The major stream of the catchment is Hancheon stream, originating at the Hallasan Mountain and flowing from south to north into the ocean. The stream offers a significant control volume which controls vital role during the runoff after continuous rainfall (Yang et al. 2015). The weather of Jeju Island shows seasonal variation due to monsoon climate. About 43% of the total annual rainfall occurs in summer (June to August) and autumn (September to November). Every year, typhoon events result from extreme consecutive hour rainfalls and tropical wind to cause flash flood.
Location of Hancheon catchment in Jeju Island and rainfall stations
To account for the spatial and temporal variability of rainfalls, the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) of Jeju province collects hindcast meteorological data across the Hancheon catchment by tipping bucket system. In this study, hourly rainfall data of five gauge stations adjacent to the catchment (Fig. 1) namely, Jeju, Ara, Eorimok, Witsaeorum and Jindallaebat were used, which were processed by the automatic weather stations (AWS) of Jeju regional meteorological administration. The data record lengths vary between 11 to 50 years. The annual average rainfall near the coastal area was found as 1560 mm, while for the rest of the catchment area shows about 2061 mm rainfall (Jung et al. 2014). Fig. 1 shows the Hancheon catchment, Hancheon stream and the locations of the selected rainfall measurement stations of KMA. The Fig. 1 also shows the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the study area, which indicates northward sloping trend of the catchment. Table 1 shows the brief summary of the five selected rainfall stations and used datasets.
Table 1 List and type of the five rainfall stations' utilized for analysis
L-moments: Theoretical background
The L-moments approach was firstly introduced by Hosking (1990) which is the suitable statistical modeling and facilitates the estimation process of probability distribution and frequency analysis. In recent years, rainfall extreme studies on statistical analysis are followed by method-of-moments estimator for annual maximum (viz. hourly, daily, monthly) time series, particularly in regional analysis. The L-moment provides a reasonable efficient estimation of hydrological data and distribution parameters. A few pragmatic advantages of using L-moment approach are better functioning with limited data samples, better dispersion, less biased skewness and kurtosis compared to other ordinary moments of probability distributions. Hosking (1990) characterized the L-moments based on probability weighted moments (PWMs) which can be shown as:
$$ {\lambda}_r=\frac{1}{r}{\sum}_{k=0}^{r-1}{\left(-1\right)}^k\left(\begin{array}{c}\hfill r-1\hfill \\ {}\hfill k\hfill \end{array}\right) E\left\{{X}_{r- k: r}\right\} $$
Here, λr is a linear function of r-th L-moment of a X distribution and r = 1, 2, 3, … is a non-negative integer. From eq. (1), the first four resulting L-moment can be written as:
$$ {\lambda}_1= EX $$
$$ {\lambda}_2=\left(\frac{1}{2}\right) E\left({X}_{2:2}-{X}_{1:2}\right) $$
$$ {\lambda}_3=\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) E\left({X}_{3:3}-2{X}_{2:3}+{X}_{1:3}\right) $$
$$ {\lambda}_4=\left(\frac{1}{4}\right) E\left({X}_{4:4}-3{X}_{3:4}+3{X}_{2:4}-{X}_{1:4}\right) $$
Hosking (1990) describes the utility of ratio estimator's using-moment ratios in hydrological extreme analysis, such as:
$$ {\tau}_2= L-{C}_v=\raisebox{1ex}{${\lambda}_2$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{${\lambda}_1$}\right. $$
$$ {\tau}_3= L- Skewness=\raisebox{1ex}{${\lambda}_3$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{${\lambda}_2$}\right. $$
$$ {\tau}_4= L- Kurtosis=\kern0.5em \raisebox{1ex}{${\lambda}_4$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{${\lambda}_2$}\right. $$
Where, τ2 is the measure of covariance (scale), τ3 is the measure of skewness (shape) with values ranging from 0 to 1, and τ4 is the measure of kurtosis (peakedness). Notable, these ratio estimator equations and their graphical diagrams are particularly good to identify the distributional properties of highly skewed data. Thus, following the above equations rainfall of 6-h, 12-h and 24-h L-moments ratio for each region has shown in this study.
Data screening by discordancy measure
A discordancy measure (Di), that is used to screen out the data from unusual sites to look for the appropriate datasets for regionalization. If a vector \( {\mathrm{u}}_{\mathrm{i}}={\left[{\mathrm{t}}^{\left(\mathrm{i}\right)},{\mathrm{t}}_3^{\left(\mathrm{i}\right)},{\mathrm{t}}_4^{\left(\mathrm{i}\right)}\right]}^{\mathrm{T}} \) which restrained the L-moment ratios for site i (Hosking and Wallis 1993), than the discordancy measure may be defined as:
$$ {D}_i=\frac{1}{3}{\left({u}_i-\overline{u}\right)}^T{S}^{-1}\left({u}_i-\overline{u}\right) $$
Where, ui = vector of L-CV, L-Skewness and L-Kurtosis; S is covariance matrix of ui and \( \overset{-}{\mathrm{u}} \) is the mean vector of ui.
Regional heterogeneity test
Homogeneous region identification is the significant step in regional frequency analysis. The statistics compare between the inter-site distributions of L-moment samples and can project a homogeneous region. Hosking and Wallis (1993) proposed that the derivation of statistical test for a homogeneous region is defined as heterogeneity measure (H). To determine the expected heterogeneity, the Monte Carlo simulation of rainfall having record lengths equal to that of the observed data were performed which is familiar in hydrological analysis. The heterogeneity measure (H) can be obtained as:
$$ H=\frac{V_{obs}-{\mu}_v}{\sigma_v} $$
Here, μv and σv are the mean and standard deviation of simulated data, respectively. Vobs is calculated from the regional data, which can be employed from three V-statistics (V1, V2, V3) as follows:
$$ {V}_1={\left[\sum_{i=1}^N{N}_i{\left\{{t}^{(i)}-{t}^R\right\}}^2/\sum_{i=1}^N{N}_i\right]}^{\raisebox{1ex}{$1$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$2$}\right.} $$
$$ {V}_2=\sum_{i=1}^N{N}_i{\left\{{\left({t}^{(i)}-{t}^R\right)}^2+{\left({t}_3^{(i)}-{t}_3^R\right)}^2\right\}}^{\raisebox{1ex}{$1$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$2$}\right.}/\sum_{i=1}^N{N}_i $$
$$ {V}_3=\sum_{i=1}^N{N}_i{\left\{{\left({t}_3^{(i)}-{t}_3^R\right)}^2+{\left({t}_4^{(i)}-{t}_4^R\right)}^2\right\}}^{\raisebox{1ex}{$1$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$2$}\right.}/\sum_{i=1}^N{N}_i $$
For H statistics criterion, Hosking and Wallis (1993) suggested that the region is reasonably homogeneous if H < 1, possibly homogeneous region if 1 ≤ H < 2 and absolutely heterogeneous region if H ≥ 2.
Goodness-of-fit measure
The regional frequency distribution L-moment ratio diagrams and goodness-of-fit measure are chosen based on sample regional average and theoretical L-Kurtosis. For a particular distribution, the goodness-of-fit measure is calculated as follows:
$$ {Z}^{Dist}=\frac{t_4^R-{\tau}_4^{Dist}}{\sigma_4} $$
Here, \( {\mathrm{t}}_4^{\mathrm{R}} \) is an average L-Kurtosis value of the data from a given region, \( {\uptau}_4^{\mathrm{Dist}} \) is a theoretical L-Kurtosis value for a fitted distribution and σ4 is the standard deviation value that obtained from simulated data. For an approximate 90% confidence level, the acceptable goodness-of-fit is found at |ZDist| ≤ 1.64.
Estimation of regional rainfall quantiles
The frequency distribution procedure of maximum consecutive hour rainfall data in a homogeneous region consist of similar quantile distribution (Dalrymple 1960). In the simulations, quantile estimated for various robust probability distributions were calculated. If the quantile estimates consisted of regional growth curve Qm(F), i site's non-exceedance probability F and site scaling factor, then the T-year quantile of the normalized regional distribution is computed by: Qi(F) = l1q(F); where q is common dimensionless function. For simulation of a homogeneous region, the regions had the same number of stations, data record length, heterogeneity and L-moments ratio as the observed data. During simulation, quantiles error, root mean square error (RMSE) and 90% error bounds were estimated from that assessment can be provided the accuracy level.
All kinds of statistical analysis and graphical representation for this study were done in R statistical program of 3.2.0 and MS excel 2007 version. The L-moment approach (lmomRFA 3.0–1 version) was also used in R package, developed by Hosking (2009).
Rainfall availability
The substantial differences in elevation and geographical location have created considerable variation in daily rainfall patterns over different places of the study area. To investigate L-moments method using consecutive hour rainfall, the time periods was divided into 6-h, 12-h and 24-h. Rainfall analysis was carried out for each station and for each of the years separately. Among the five rainfall stations, the Witsaeorum station (near to the highest peak of the Jeju Island) received maximum daily rainfall of 1396.5 mm (Table 1) in a single calendar day since AWS began tracking rainfall data. The maximum 6-h, 12-h and 24-h rainfall data were also analyzed with the daily maximum rainfall values. Figure 2 illustrates the daily maximum and annual total rainfall in each station, indicating the temporal and spatial fluctuations. In comparison with the other rainfall years, highest number of extreme rainfall events occurred in 2012. The maximum daily rainfall for Jeju station was found as 615.6 mm, whereas the total annual rainfall was 2526.0 mm. Accordingly, for Ara, Eorimok, Witsaeorum and Jindallaebat rainfall stations the maximum daily rainfall values were 838.5 mm, 909.5 mm, 1396.5 mm and 1183.5 mm respectively; while the total annual rainfall values for the year of 2012 were obtained as 3461.5 mm, 4459.0 mm, 6514.5 mm and 7317.0 mm respectively. The potential reason could be the orographic rainfall effects with mountainous topography. Therefore, it is required to analyze the regional frequency with respect to elevation.
Temporal rainfall data availability for five stations
Stationary and independence test
The fundamental data execution was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975) and auto-correlation function (ACF) analysis to verify the maximum 24 h consecutive rainfall which is convenient for regional frequency analysis. The results of Mann-Kendall trend test presented in Table 2 shows that all the rainfall stations' values are constant over time, with no significant alteration trends. This reasonably infers that the datasets have a stationary series. Moreover, auto-correlation function (ACF) coefficient values are shown in Fig. 3(a) and (b) for 'lag 1′ to 'lag 13′ plotting. The ACF values show that each station's rainfall values are below the critical bounds (ACF = 0.4), thus the maximum consecutive hour rainfall series can be considered as time-independent. Thereafter, spatial autoregressive calculation (Dong and Harris 2015) also showed that the stations' cross correlations (probability, p-value) were not significant (up to 5%), for which the data can be considered as spatially independent.
Table 2 Summary of trend analysis of maximum hourly rainfall series using Mann-Kendall test
a Autocorrelation function (ACF) plot of Jeju, Ara and Eorimok station. b Autocorrelation function (ACF) plot of Jindallaebat and Witsaeorum station
Identification of homogeneous region by cluster based analysis
One of the initial steps of regional frequency analysis was the identification of homogeneous regions as per descriptions provided in methodology section. To identify such homogeneous regions on the basis of hydro-meteorological as well as geospatial similarities, a cluster based hierarchical dendogram (tree) analysis following Ward's method (Ward 1963) has been used. The hierarchical clustered dendogram provided information on probable clusters and it was seen that the study area consists of three homogeneous regions. The appropriateness of this choice was also tested by heterogeneity measures (H). The three clustered hydrometric homogeneous regions such as the region 1 comprising Jeju and Ara station, region 2 comprising Eorimok station, and the region 3 comprising Jindallaebat and Witsaeorum station are illustrated in Figs. 4 and 5.
Dendogram of clustered stations by Ward's method
Location of three homogeneous regions in Hancheon catchment
Region 1 (Jeju and Ara station) is situated in the urban portion of northern part of Jeju Island with an average elevation of 253 m, recording an average annual rainfall of around 1835 mm. Region 2 (Eorimok station) is located in the middle portion of Hancheon catchment, which is a semi urban area with an average elevation of 950 m, recording an average rainfall of 2436 mm. Region 3 (Witsaeorum and Jindallaebat station) is situated near Hallasan Mountain with an average elevation of 1570 m and recording an average rainfall of around 2361 mm. The rainfall characteristics of region 3 are fully influenced by tropical and mountainous winds.
Estimation of L-moments, homogeneity test and best fitted distribution
The L-moments approach, discordancy (D i ) and heterogeneity measure (H) of each region were executed by the lmomRFA package in R statistical programming. At first, the time-series scattered plots of annual L-CV, L-Skewness and L-Kurtosis ratios for each of the three regions have been developed (Fig. 6). For all the plots, L-moment ratio values were confined within 0.1 to 0.4. For region 2 and region 3, results indicated a parallel shift of values. This happened due to the abrupt daily and annual rainfall occurrences. In general, the L-moment ratios for the three regions showed inclined values over the sampling period.
Yearly variation of L-moments ratio for three regions
Secondly, the discordancy (Di) has been computed from eq. (9) and found as less than 3.0, suggesting that none of the regions is discordant (Table 3). Also, heterogeneity measures (H) were computed using eqs. (10) to (13) and using 500 simulated values in R programming for estimation. From the heterogeneity measure it was found that each H-statistics values were lower than 1.0 (H < 1.0), re-confirming that those regions were homogeneous. Afterwards, subsequent distributions have been applied for best fitted statistical distribution of each region. Consequently, the proposed ZDist measure (Hosking and Wallis 1993) was calculated by eq. (14). The best fitted distribution was inferred as ZDist as 0.54, 1.25 and 1.03 (which are below 1.64) for the region 1, 2 and 3 respectively, showing significant criterion to be accepted as goodness-of-fit at 90% confidence levels for individual homogeneous regions. The difference of results is understandable due to the hydro-geological distinctive conditions. Based on the discordance, heterogeneity measure and distribution value, it is suggested to make a decision on Hancheon catchment frequency distribution for each homogeneous region using Gumbel and generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution.
Table 3 Discordance, heterogeneity measure and best fitted distribution for three regions
Estimation of regional growth curves
The regional quantile estimates were found reliable as those were always obtained by regional frequency analysis. Robust estimation was needed when the regional distribution was more than one. In such cases, Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the root mean square error (RMSE) percentage at 90% confidence level. The estimation of q(F), for different non-exceedance probabilities have been shown in Table 4 and regional growth curves for three regions have also been represented in Fig. 7. The error bound of hourly maximum rainfall varied from 1.046 to 2.303 mm for region 1, 1.027 to 4.135 mm for region 2 and 0.960 to 7.829 mm for region 3. The higher variations of error bounds experienced in regions 2 and 3 may be because of the considerable spatial fluctuations of elevations due to their spatially undulating mountainous topography, which cause uncertainties in rainfall prediction. Furthermore, the RMSE values were found as 0.014 (5-yr) to 0.237 (100-yr) mm for Gumbel distributions (regions 1 and 2) and 0.115 (5-yr) to 0.301 (100-yr) mm for GEV distributions (region 3). The results indicate that the GEV method performs better in mountainous regions (region 3), whereas for urban (region 1) and semi-mountainous areas with transitional slopes (region 2) the Gumbel method provide better results.
Table 4 Simulation results of estimated regional quantiles, RMSE and corresponding 90% error bounds values
Estimated regional growth curve for three homogeneous regions
Regional quantile analysis
The present study is designed to derive rainfall patterns by L-moments based technique for all station of Hancheon catchment. The approach has been developed for 5, 10, 20, 50, 70, 80, 100 years return period (Table 5). Various periods of rainfall data had been used to estimate the return period. As a result, Jeju station area shows 165.12 to 333.97 mm rainfall, when the other station's rainfall show remarkable interval of rainfall depth. Adjacent to the Hallasan Mountain (Jindallaebat station) the rainfall quantile ranges from a minimum of 183.46 mm to a maximum of 555.18 mm. For all stations' return period values, a statistical measure (linear regression) was also done, which obtained r-square values within 0.842 to 0.974 and p-values below 0.001, indicating the statistical significance.
Table 5 Results of the consecutive hour (6-h, 12-h, 24-h) regional rainfall quantile for five station
The station analysis showed that the Eorimok station's probable rainfall (163.23 mm to 311.03 mm) is lower than the other stations. This is because of the Eorimok station's location within the transitional steep slopes between forest and hilly regions, which yields less rainfall accumulation due to varying elevations and slopes. Above all, the L-moments technique depicts accurate predictions of all kinds of statistical analysis and as such, the method can be suggested for policies and decision makings pertaining to hydrological catchment design.
The maximum consecutive hour rainfall data was analyzed using L-moments approach, to study the spatial homogeneity, probability distributions and as well as regional frequency estimates. The entailed careful data screening from historical rainfall events, carried out using cluster based dendogram analysis. From ward's classification, three reasonably homogeneous regions were suggested for Hancheon catchment (Jeju and Ara in region 1, Eorimok in region 2 and Jindallaebat and Witsaeorum in region 3). After heterogeneity measure test, no limited discordant values were seen for the data sets. The L-moments ratio values varied within 0.1 to 0.4, which were considered as the statistical thresholds for the regional frequency analysis. The study concluded that Gumbel and generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution are more successful and reliable models for Hancheon catchment, which is marked by the relatively lower RMSE values (at 90% probability level). The analysis showed better rainfall predictions for region 1 (error bound between 1.046 to 2.303 mm); whereas for the region 2 (error bound between 1.027 to 4.135 mm) and region 3 (error bound between 0.960 to 7.829 mm) significant errors were found. Considering the spatial variations of hydro-meteorological and topographic characteristics, the rainfall estimates for different regions can be considered as useful hydrological design attributes. In spite of the statistical and design related findings researched thoroughly in this study a number of limitations still persist, leaving potentials for future identical research. The datasets used to develop the statistical analysis were limited, for which the scope of the study was confined within a definite statistical approach (L-moments). With more availability of hydro-meteorological data, more statistical as well as locally established mathematical tools could be taken into consideration which could further emphasize on the perfection of the technique. Furthermore, the study was carried out using five rainfall stations only. With more rainfall stations, relatively finer homogeneous clusters may be developed, which would further improve the local accuracies of rainfall estimates. However, given the size and locations of data availability, the study inferred good results. Moreover, the methodological framework used in the study is not only applicable for the Jeju Island but can also be implied in other similar areas where the rainfall data records are limited and the land slope is steep.
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Venkatesh, B., and M.K. Jose. 2007. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of western Ghats region of Karnataka. Journal of Earth System Science 116 (4): 321–329. doi:10.1007/s12040-007-0029-z.
Wallis, J.R., M.G. Schaefer, B.L. Barker, and G.H. Taylor. 2007. Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping for 24-hour and 2-hour durations for Washington state. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11 (1): 415–442.
Ward, J.H. 1963. Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function. Journal of the American Statistical Association 58 (301): 236–244. doi:10.2307/2282967.
Wiltshire, S.E. 1986. Regional flood frequency analysis I: Homogeneity statistics. Hydrological Sciences Journal 31 (3): 321–333. doi:10.1080/02626668609491051.
Yang SK, Kar KK, Lee JH (2015) Surface rainfall-runoff analysis using NRCS curve number and semi-distributed model in urban watershed of Jeju Island, Korea. H43I-1668, In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, (https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm15/webprogram/Paper59250.html).
This research was supported by a grant from regional development research program (15RDRP-B076272-02) funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean Government.
KKK structured the full manuscript. He was also responsible for using R Programming and developed the statistical analysis. SKY supervised to prepare methodology from different techniques and prepared the discussion section. JHL carried out the rainfall data analysis. FKK was responsible to develop the study background and prepare draft on the study area section. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Department of Civil Engineering, Jeju National University, Jeju, 690-756, South Korea
Kanak Kanti Kar
, Sung-Kee Yang
& Jun-Ho Lee
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, USA
Fahad Khan Khadim
Search for Kanak Kanti Kar in:
Search for Sung-Kee Yang in:
Search for Jun-Ho Lee in:
Search for Fahad Khan Khadim in:
Correspondence to Kanak Kanti Kar.
Kar, K.K., Yang, S., Lee, J. et al. Regional frequency analysis for consecutive hour rainfall using L-moments approach in Jeju Island, Korea. Geoenviron Disasters 4, 18 (2017) doi:10.1186/s40677-017-0082-0
Regional frequency analysis
Consecutive hour rainfall
L-moments
Heterogeneity measure
Water-related Geoenvironmental Disasters under Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities


text:
Everything You Need To Know about 'Southern Charm's Larissa Marolt
By Kristie Rohwedder
Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment/Getty Images
Bless his heart, Whitney Sudler-Smith has a ladyfriend! And has had a ladyfriend for some time! According to Bravo.com's The Dish, the Southern Charm star and Austrian model/reality TV star/actress Larissa Marolt have been dating "for the last year." WHOA. They've been keeping it kind of quiet, but thanks to German tabloids, the story is OUT. "I'm in Germany now, and the press has been insane," Sudler-Smith told The Dish. "We're in every tabloid and newspaper. She seems to be the biggest star in Germany and everybody wants to know her business. But she's been a very good sport about the whole thing. She's very down to earth."
As a Southern Charm super fan, I didn't stop at this Dish story. I craved more deets. I was delighted to discover that there's a lot of info about Marolt (and Marolt and Sudler-Smith's relatonship) online, but dismayed when I realized a majority of it is in German. Scheisse! While my last name is very German, the only words I know are scheisse and danke.
So what do we know about Sudler-Smith's very beautiful female companion? Allow me to share the factoids I do understand:
She was born in St. Kanzian, Austria.
She is 21 years old.
At the age of 16, she won Austria's Next Top Model.
She was on Germany's Next Top Model and GNTM spinoff Die Model WG (translation: The Model Community).
She was on the German version of I'm a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! She took second place.
According to her website, she attended NYC's Lee Strasberg Theater and Film Institute. (At least, I think that's what her résumé says.)
She's acted in movies and TV shows.
Currently, she's on the seventh season of Let's Dance, Germany's version of Dancing With the Stars.[Twitter Embed: https://twitter.com/WSUDLERSMITH/statuses/452510677274730498]
According to her Wikipedia page, she will be on Southern Charm . AHHHHHHH!
How does Patricia Altschul feel about her son's GF? If only she had a Twitter account where she could answ—WAIT A SECOND. She does have a Twitter account!
Queen Pat gets her info from tabloids, too? Like a normal? Well, I'll be.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
La Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise (CAR) est un ancien établissement public de coopération intercommunale français, situé dans le département de la Seine-Maritime et la région Normandie (anciennement Haute-Normandie).

Le , la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise a fusionné avec l'Agglo d'Elbeuf et les communautés de communes de Seine-Austreberthe et du Trait-Yainville afin de former la Communauté d'agglomération Rouen-Elbeuf-Austreberthe (CREA), celle-là même qui devint la Métropole Rouen Normandie en 2015.

Histoire
Le SIVOM de l'agglomération rouennaise est créée le . Il exerce des compétences précises et limitées essentiellement dans les domaines des services d'incendie et de secours, des transports urbains de voyageurs et dans l'élaboration d'un plan global de traitement des déchets à l'échelle intercommunale.

  : Le SIVOM devient le District de l'agglomération rouennaise. La structure élargit ses compétences dans les domaines du développement économique, de l'habitat et de la vie sociale, de l'enseignement supérieur et de la recherche, de la vie sportive, de la vie culturelle, de la formation et de la jeunesse et de l'aide aux petites communes.

 1999 : Dans le cadre de la loi du  sur l'intercommunalité, le District de l'agglomération rouennaise franchit une nouvelle étape en devenant le  Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise. L'action au quotidien de la communauté pour ses habitants se décline maintenant en plusieurs grands domaines : économie, aménagement, transports, environnement, développement social urbain, vie sportive et culturelle.

  : Laurent Fabius est élu président de la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise.

Administration

Communes adhérentes

Administration
La communauté d'agglomération était administrée par le conseil communautaire, composé de 110 conseillers, désignés pour 6 ans par les conseils municipaux des communes. Chaque commune est représenté par un nombre de conseillers proportionnel à son poids démographiques, avec un délégué par tranche de  habitants. Du fait de la faiblesse démographique de Rouen vis-à-vis de sa banlieue, les délégués de la ville-centre sont largement minoritaires dans le conseil, avec 20 % des sièges.

Le bureau élu le , est composé du président, Laurent Fabius, de 27 vice-présidents, et de 6 membres sans attribution.

Les présidents successifs de la structure intercommunale (SIVOM, district, communauté d'agglomération) ont été :

Compétences

Les principales compétences de la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise sont :

 les transports en commun : l'exploitation du réseau des transports en commun (TEOR, métro, bus, et taxi collectif) est confié à la TCAR mais la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise y joue un rôle important car elle finance et décide de toutes les évolutions liées aux transports en commun. Elle est l'autorité organisatrice chargée du développement et du financement des transports urbains dans les 45 communes de l'agglomération.

 le développement économique : la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise est chargée de la gestion des zones d'activités économiques et les actions de développement économique d'intérêt communautaire.

 l'aménagement de l'espace communautaire : la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise suit les révisions et les modifications des PLU (Plans locaux d'urbanisme).

 l'équilibre social de l'habitat : le Programme local de l'habitat (PLH) est un document de référence retraçant les principaux enjeux de la politique de l'habitat ainsi que les objectifs à atteindre. Parmi ces derniers, les quatre thèmes majeurs sont : accroître et orienter l'offre nouvelle de logements, adapter et améliorer le parc existant, soutenir la diversification de l'offre de logements et, enfin, mettre en place des outils de connaissance et de suivi du marché du logement.

 la collecte des déchets : la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise a mis en place une direction « collecte des déchets ménagers » composée de 174 agents dont la mission est d'assurer la collecte des déchets mais aussi de la distribution des sacs et des bacs, de l'entretien du matériel et des installations et de la gestion du personnel.

 la vie culturelle et sportive : depuis 2000, la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise détient une nouvelle compétence, spécifique au sport. « Construction, aménagement, entretien et gestion d'équipements culturels, sportifs d'intérêt communautaire et participation à des activités culturelles et sportives d'intérêt communautaire » font partie des nouvelles orientations de l'agglomération.

 l'eau et l'assainissement : la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise produit et distribue l'eau potable depuis 2005. Quant à l'assainissement, elle a une compétence pour la totalité du système de collecte, de transport et d'épuration des eaux usées ainsi que pour l'élimination des boues. Elle est également chargée de la construction et de l'exploitation des ouvrages publics d'eaux pluviales, ainsi que l'aménagement et l'entretien de la partie humide des rivières non-domaniales.

 l'enseignement supérieur et la recherche.

 la formation jeunesse.

 le tourisme.

Réalisations

Publications
La Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise publie Agglo Mag , un magazine mensuel d'information distribué chez les habitants des 45 communes. Agglo Mag évoque les projets et les réalisations de la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise, l'actualité dans ses 45 communes. Elle réalise également une lettre d'information mensuelle pour tous ses abonnés internautes.

Déchets
Depuis 1990, le SIVOM puis le District ont pris l'ensemble des décisions en matière de collecte sélective, de valorisation et de traitement des déchets ménagers recyclables. La Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise a intégré dans ses statuts la collecte et le traitement des déchets ménagers et assimilés au .

En application de ces statuts, la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise a mis en place un pôle de la maîtrise des déchets et d'éducation à l'environnement.

Ce pôle, composé de 174 agents, a pour mission d'assurer la collecte des déchets mais aussi la distribution des sacs et des bacs, l'entretien du matériel et des installations, et la gestion du personnel.

Eau et assainissement
Dans le cadre de ses compétences en matière d'assainissement, la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise a mis en place un service public d'assainissement non collectif (SPANC) en 2005.
Le SPANC contrôle les installations d'assainissement non collectif des particuliers. L'objectif est la mise en conformité des installations d'assainissement pour limiter la pollution des nappes phréatiques.  foyers sont concernés dans l'agglomération rouennaise.

Transports

TEOR est un système intermédiaire entre le tramway et le bus.
Avec ses voies réservées sur environ 70 % de son parcours et sa priorité aux carrefours, ce bus à haut niveau de service est plus rapide et plus régulier qu'un bus classique. Avec ses stations aménagées, il offre un niveau de confort proche de celui d'un tramway, renforcé également par le guidage optique qui permet une accessibilité de plain-pied.
Le projet TEOR, en plus de l'amélioration des transports en commun, s'inscrit dans le cadre de la requalification de l'espace public grâce notamment aux implantations d'arbres, à la réfection des voiries et des trottoirs, à l'aménagement des carrefours, à l'effacement du paysage des réseaux de téléphone et d'électricité, à l'uniformisation du mobilier urbain, etc.

Le réseau TEOR est composé de trois lignes desservant 8 communes de l'agglomération d'est en ouest (Darnétal ; Rouen ; Bihorel ; Mont-Saint-Aignan ; Déville-lès-Rouen ; Maromme ; Notre-Dame-de-Bondeville et Canteleu avec un tronc commun de  du pôle d'échange du Mont-Riboudet jusqu'à Saint-Hilaire.

Le métro est une véritable réussite depuis 1994, année de son lancement : près de 1,5 million de km sont parcourus chaque année pour plus de 15 millions de voyages (environ  voyageurs quotidiens). Succès à la fois commercial et urbanistique puisque le métro a amélioré le cadre de vie des communes traversées.

La ligne est divisée en deux branches, qui desservent au total 5 communes (Grand-Quevilly, Petit-Quevilly, Rouen, Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray et Sotteville-lès-Rouen). Elle est composée de 31 stations dont 5 souterraines dans Rouen.

L'agglomération a pour projet de doubler sa capacité d'ici à 2012 grâce à l'achat de nouvelles rames plus longues.

Zénith

Le Zénith de Rouen est le  Zénith de France. La Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise s'est dotée de cet équipement en 2001 comprenant un vaste espace scénique et une infrastructure insonorisée pour répondre aux plus exigeantes des productions actuelles et des congrès conventions d'entreprises.

Depuis , le Zénith de Rouen est géré par la SESAR (Société d'exploitation de spectacles de l'agglomération rouennaise).

Pont Gustave-Flaubert
Le pont Gustave-Flaubert, pont levant le plus haut d'Europe, est ouvert à la circulation depuis . Il supporte un trafic journalier d'au moins  véhicules. Pour l'agglomération, ce sixième franchissement routier de la Seine d'un coût de 49,4 millions d'euros (hors viaducs d'accès), cofinancé par l'État, la Région, le Département et la Communauté de l'Agglomération Rouennaise, était capital en permettant de réduire le trafic routier dans le centre-ville de Rouen.

Port de plaisance
Ce port de plaisance est en service depuis l'Armada 2008. Le bassin Saint-Gervais s'est métamorphosé pour pouvoir accueillir des plaisanciers.
  de ponton et de la passerelle d'accès, réhabilitation de l'ancien bâtiment des douanes, éclairages, bornes d'alimentation électrique, arrivées d'eau.
 50 anneaux pour amarrer les bateaux dans cette nouvelle halte de plaisance et d'hivernage.

La Maison des forêts
Pour valoriser son patrimoine forestier et développer une véritable éducation à l'environnement à l'échelle des 45 communes, la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise a décidé la construction d'un réseau de maisons des forêts. Ces maisons offrent un lieu permanent de présentation et de connaissance du patrimoine forestier. La première est ouverte depuis . Située à Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, elle accueille le grand public le week-end et des scolaires et accueils de loisirs en semaine. 120 classes ont été accueillies (au ) depuis son ouverture en .

Plan lumière
La mise en place du plan lumière de l'agglomération rouennaise a pour objectif de créer un cheminement visuel et attractif avec la Seine comme fil conducteur. À travers ce projet, les ponts, les berges, les silos portuaires, les grues et les falaises qui dominent le fleuve sont équipés de projecteurs ou de fils de lumière bleue qui tranchent avec les lumières jaunes de l'éclairage public traditionnel.

Pépinières d'entreprises
Au printemps 2006, la Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise ouvre une première pépinière d'entreprises à Déville-lès-Rouen : Seine Créapolis. Celle-ci se trouve dans les anciens locaux de l'usine Viasystems, qui a fermé ses portes au début des années 2000. La Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise décida de racheter le site et de financer sur place, avec l'aide de la Région, du Département et de l'Europe, le projet Seine Créapolis. L'intérêt de cette structure réside dans le fait qu'elle offre une grande souplesse aux créateurs. Souplesse financière, grâce à des loyers modérés et une mutualisation des services, mais également souplesse contractuelle car la location de bureaux dans la pépinière se fait en dehors du très contraignant cadre du bail commercial. La pépinière comprend cinquante bureaux, cinq ateliers, un accueil secrétariat partagé, des salles de réunion, d'informatique et de détente, ainsi que d'un dispositif d'aide à la logistique et de conseil. Elle accueille des activités très variées. On y retrouve par exemple des sociétés de formation, des consultants en environnement ou bien encore des fabricants de moutarde normande.

Depuis l'été 2008, une deuxième pépinière d'entreprises est née dans l'agglomération rouennaise : Seine-Biopolis. Consacrée à la santé et à la biologie, elle est située route de Lyons à quelques pas du CHU de Rouen. Tout comme pour Seine Créapolis, les jeunes entreprises de Seine-Biopolis sont suivies, accompagnées, conseillées et bénéficient de moyens humains et matériels mis à leur disposition par la Communauté.

Deux nouvelles pépinières-hôtels d'entreprises devraient être créées par la Communauté : une consacrée aux activités des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) au sein du Pôle TIC au Petit-Quevilly (réhabilitation de l'ancienne caserne Tallandier) ; ouverture prévue mi-2011. Sont prévus une pépinière () et un hôtel d'entreprises ().

L'autre devrait être consacrée aux activités du bâtiment à haute qualité environnementale.

L'Armada

Le premier rassemblement de grand voiliers à Rouen a été organisé en 1989, à l'occasion du bicentenaire de la Révolution, sous le vocable des « voiles de la liberté » en 1989, suivi cinq ans plus tard de « l'Armada de la liberté » pour les cinquante ans du débarquement allié en Normandie. Puis l'agglomération rouennaise a accueilli l'Armada du Siècle en 1999, l'Armada 2003, et l'Armada 2008. Les plus beaux voiliers du globe, des marins du monde entier et des millions de visiteurs se rassemblent pour chacune de ces éditions. Pour l'Armada 2008, l'agglomération rouennaise a ouvert les portes du Hangar 2, transformé en Bulle d'Agglo pour l'occasion, dans lequel les visiteurs pouvaient se rafraîchir au bar à eau, se détendre et suivre un parcours ludique sur les compétences de la collectivité.

Le 106
Les travaux dans le hangar 106 vont permettre de créer une scène de musiques actuelles, comprenant une salle de 1100 places, un club de 350 places, un studio d'émission radiophonique, un studio de réalisation d'images numériques, un studio régie pour la musique assistée par ordinateur, deux studios d'enregistrements grandes formations, trois studios pour petites formations, un studio chorégraphique et une scène ouvrant sur l'extérieur.

Projets

Création d'une communauté urbaine - un projet avorté ou retardé ?
La Communauté de l'agglomération rouennaise avait pour projet de fusionner avec la Communauté d'agglomération Elbeuf - Boucle de Seine et les communautés de communes environnantes (Caux-Austreberthe, Seine Austreberthe, et du Trait-Yainville) pour former l'une des premières communautés urbaines de France, aux compétences élargies.

Le refus de la communauté de communes Caux-Austreberthe d'adhérer à ce projet, lors de son conseil communautaire du , ne permet plus d'attendre le seuil des  habitants nécessaire à la constitution d'une communauté urbaine.

Malgré cette décision, Laurent Fabius confirme sa volonté de poursuivre ce projet par étape, au travers, dans un premier temps de la création d'une « grande » communauté d'agglomération.
La communauté d'agglomération Rouen Elbeuf Austreberthe (CREA) a été créée le  et compte  habitants pour 71 communes au total, faisant d'elle la première communauté d'agglomération de France au regard de la population.

Palais des sports
Avec le Zénith, le pont Gustave-Flaubert et le TEOR, le Palais des sports de Rouen est l'un des plus grands chantiers dans l'agglomération. Sur une emprise globale de , le Palais des sports qui sera construit entre l'avenue du Mont-Riboudet et la Seine offrira une capacité modulable de  à  places sur une surface utile de  destiné principalement au basket-ball, gymnastique, arts martiaux, volley-ball et handball.

Maison des éco-sciences
La Maison des éco-sciences ouvrira sur les quais fin 2010 dans les locaux de l'actuel Hangar 2. Au rez-de-chaussée, à l'image de la Bulle d'Agglo (réalisé pendant l'Armada 2008 dans ce même Hangar) sera créé un lieu consacré à la science s'inspirant de la Cité des sciences et de l'industrie de la Villette à Paris qui assistera d'ailleurs la Communauté dans l'élaboration de sa programmation. À l'étage, un auditorium de 200 places sera aménagé pour accueillir des conférences et des colloques. Il sera équipé d'une sonorisation de haute qualité, d'un système de traduction simultanée et d'une salle de presse.

Écoquartier du Pont-Flaubert
Un écoquartier de 80 hectares situé sur les communes de Rouen et du Petit-Quevilly redonnera vie aux anciennes emprises industrielles et valorisera les quais de la Seine. Ce projet sera mené par l'équipe de Jacqueline Osty, paysagiste, et se concrétisera par étapes d'ici 15 à 20 ans. L'accent sera mis sur l'environnement en intégrant de nombreux jardins et parcs, des pistes cyclables, ainsi que des transports en commun performants et un système de gestion des eaux pluviales. Ce site jouera un rôle sur le développement des activités économiques de la région et accueillera à terme plus de  habitants.

Annexes

Notes et références

Liens externes

Rouen
Rouen

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Lafco has great bar soaps.... I tend to enjoy the more neutral fragrances such as marine and chamomile and lavender. The bars last FOREVER which is great! Also, they keep their scent over time.... I know this because I received 2 for Christmas so I had to wait to use the 2nd bar and by the time I needed that one it still smelled fresh.
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Love lafco scents bought the reed air diffuser at a fancy resort dos in Carmel CA 2 years ago and it's still scenting my living room. Their products are of a high grade and well received by me. The soap is a giant bar that lasts forever. Although my bar split in half- weird.
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This soap smells glorious and despite the steep price, I'd say it's worth it! And it is a very large bar of soap that I'm sure will last a long time. The packaging was also fitting for this high quality and type of a product.
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This soap is pure luxury. And an Oprah favorite. I usually splurge on the Summer. I've tried the Sand & Dune and the Champaign. Both were wonderful. Treat yourself.


Elegans Rodgersia features bold plumes of shell pink flowers rising above the foliage from late spring to early summer. Its attractive large serrated oval palmate leaves emerge coppery-bronze in spring, turning forest green in colour. As an added bonus, the foliage turns a gorgeous coppery-bronze in the fall. The fruit is not ornamentally significant. The red stems are very colorful and add to the overall interest of the plant.


text: Paul Vernon Johnson, A.K.A. Paul Vernon, A.K.A. Paul, A.K.A. PJ, A.K.A. Polly, A.K.A. Mr. Johnson, A.K.A. Dad, A.K.A. Grandpa, A.K.A. Great Grandpa, A.K.A. Pa-Pa, A.K.A. Uncle Paul. Whatever name you knew him by created the memories each of you carry on… How he ended up in Placerville, California working at a cafe called "The Hangman's Tree" was crazy. There, he dated the head cook, my grandmother Bernice's, daughter, Dorothy. They later married and after a short stay in Sacramento, moved to the Bay Area, in East Palo Alto. The couple had two children, Paul Anthony and Kimberly Colleen Johnson. The family was joined by Dad's three children from a former marriage, Lydia, Paula, and Raydell, on summer vacations. After spending 20+ years at Lyons Restaurant, Dad was offered a management position in Chico, California to take over and help a restaurant in trouble. Taking the position, he and his family were off to the country with a complete farm and garden. As I remember it, almost every morning began with him standing at the back window, looking out for any wildlife movement while enjoying a hot coffee royale( strong coffee with a shot of brandy) in one hand, a shotgun in the other, ready to run out. With food cooking always in his life, everyday that he came home from work and "backed" meant the menu would be changing from chicken and dumplings to whatever was in the trunk - deer, bear, turkey…A day at the lake on his boat or hunting in the woods also meant a menu change was coming; as long as he had beans, rice and cornbread on the table and a cold beer in the fridge. After years of working for others, he opened his own dinner house restaurant on a golf course in Oroville. People still talk about the food and service. Dad was always out to help someone in trouble. One year when he was at the shack, he and his brother-in-law, Willie, found themselves riding tiny, child-size bikes to answer an emergency cry for help from a child. After getting to the back fence and jumping it into a field, they found Willie's daughter, Lisa, frozen in place, screaming after being stung by a bee! They then started the long walk home. Every family or business party he went to, he arrived fashionably late and was the last to leave. With a cocktail in his hand after last call, he was still on the dance floor even after the music had stopped. After retiring from work, Dad moved to the retirement haven where he suffered a stroke that left him half-paralyzed and in a wheelchair. Did that stop him? No, no, no. After moving into Windsor care, he played many domino hands and bingo games; he shared his winnings of chips and cookies with his granddaughter, Kasheena. He still continued his gardening of tomatoes, hot peppers, strawberries and walnut trees. Every year, he'd gather the walnuts off the ground, peel and place them in small bags before selling them to family, Kim, residents and workers. He'd save the money for his Christmas shopping. So what if he went to the store and his total came to $600, he'd hand his white envelope that had $122.50 to the register worker with a proud smile on his face. I'd stand behind him waving a credit card, nodding my head for approval. B.B King, Ray Charles and Buddy Guy were the concerts he attended during his stay at Windsor Care. This included a one-hour private visit with B.B. Dad and myself and two co-workers of mine, Theresa and Brad, where we talked about food and B.B wanting to know where the samples of food were. It was a night to remember. When his brother, Yogi, surprised him with a visit, his face lit up when he entered the visiting room to find out the person playing the piano was his brother. He tapped along to the music, a smile on his face; he was so happy. Many of the workers at Windsor Care helped in the enjoyment of his 20+ year stay there. His second family is what they became. Paul is survived by his brother, Yogi, his children, Paul Anthony, Kimberly Colleen, Lydia. Paula, Raydell, and a host of 20 + grandchildren, great grandchildren, nieces, nephews, cousins and many loving friends. His is preceded in death by his parents, Milton McKinley Johnson Sr. And Rosie Lee Reed-Johnson, his brothers, Milton Jr., James Wilburt, and Rhuben, his sisters, Fluorine, Esteen, Verna Lee and Julia. His Celebration of Life is by invitation only due to COVID restrictions. You may view the service on Facebook on Friday, September 18, 2020 at 11:00 AM by going to Facebook enter Ramsey Funeral Homes scroll down to link and turn on or Google Ramsey Funeral Home go to website click on menu scroll down and click Facebook and turn on link. Arrangements are entrusted to Ramsey Funeral Home 530-534-3877.


The term 'www.mastermindbikes.in' or 'us' or 'we' refers to the owner of the website whose registered office is 536/537, Nirmal Avior, LBS Marg, Mulund (W), Mumbai - 80. The term 'you' refers to the user or viewer of our website.
You may not create a link to this website from another website or document without Mastermind Bicycle Studio's prior written consent.


WhatsApp just became a safer chat platform on Friday as two-step verification (the company's phrase for two-factor authentication) has finally been added to the popular app. The security feature has been available in the beta version of the app since last fall, but starting today, anyone with a WhatsApp account can head to the Settings menu of the app and set up two-step verification.
For those of you who have never used two-factor authentication (2FA), the enhanced security measure adds a second layer to the log-in process, making it more difficult for intruders to access your account.
In order to enable 2FA on your WhatsApp account, you need to open the app and click on Settings > Account > Two-step verification > Enable. Once the feature is enabled, you will have to input a six-digit passcode every time you attempt to verify your phone number on WhatsApp.


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The life expectancy of people with Down syndrome increased dramatically between 1960 and 2007. In 1960, on average, persons with Down syndrome lived to be about 10 years old. In 2007, on average, persons with Down syndrome lived to be about 47 years old.
World Down Syndrome Day (WDSD), 21 March, is a global awareness day which has been officially observed by the United Nations since 2012. Join in with us to create a single global voice for advocating for the rights, inclusion and well being of people with Down syndrome on 21 March.
Data on the kammarsyndrom • Hypoplasia of left heart syndrome (HLHS). 3,17. 3,80. consequence of Scandinavian expansion in the Late Iron Age and There is a sort of 'one-entity' syndrome in archaeological research, In this paper I have suggested the possibility of using ethnicity in a relational, network suggests that the house did not burn down in the final phase of abandonment. unionists, to call for a "pathway into citizenship" for the 500,000-odd "undocumented migrants" in the UK who have been left in legal limbo.
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A 30-year-old woman has a 1 in 800 risk. Se hela listan på embryology.med.unsw.edu.au World Down Syndrome Day - WEAR ODD SOCKS. 3,967 likes · 20 talking about this. Down Syndrome International is inviting everyone across the world to wear ODD socks to support and raise awareness of The risk of a DS live birth for women 45 years of age and over is considerably lower than has often been previously assumed. The most likely explanation is that Methods: Maternal age-specific odds of Down syndrome and amniocentesis use were compared among African Americans, Mexican Americans, and non- 8 Mar 2018 Advancing maternal age. A woman's chances of giving birth to a child with Down syndrome increase with age because older eggs have a greater The risk of chromosomal abnormality increases with maternal age.
For example, parents who have a child with Down syndrome or another chromosomal disorder, or who have a chromosomal 2003-07-01 · Continued "Paternal age has an effect on Down syndrome but only in mothers 35 years old and older," write researcher Harry Fisch, MD, of the department of urology at Columbia-Presbyterian Medical There was no parental age influence on Down syndrome until age 35 years and older. A paternal age effect was seen in association with a maternal age of 35 years and older, and it was most pronounced when maternal age was 40 years and older (p = 0.0004).
av N Kalnak · 2014 · Citerat av 15 — This thesis comprises three studies focusing on Swedish school-age Likelihood ratios. X disorder (Kjelgaard & Tager-Flusberg, 2001), Down's syndrome.
The condition affects your baby's learning and development, and presents some physical problems. This means that each year there are approximately 290 new babies born each year who have Down syndrome. The incidence of births of children with Down syndrome increases with the age of the mother.
2021-04-13 · Maternal age at term: Risk of Down's syndrome: Maternal age at term: Risk of Down's syndrome: Maternal age at term: Risk of Down's syndrome: 20: 1:1450: 30: 1:940: 40: 1:85: 21: 1:1450: 31: 1:820: 41: 1:70: 22: 1:1450: 32: 1:700: 42: 1:55: 23: 1:1400: 33: 1:570: 43: 1:45: 24: 1:1400: 34: 1:460: 44: 1:40: 25: 1:1350: 35: 1:350: 45: 1:35: 26: 1:1300: 36: 1:270: 46: 1:30: 27: 1:1200: 37: 1:200: 47: 1:30: 28: 1:1150: 38: 1:150: 48: 1:30: 29: 1:1050: 39: 1:110: 49: 1:25
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autism spectrum disorder, ODD, depression), but are not that only a few years down the road, there will be a more. av L Nylander · 2019 — DSD: Down's Syndrome Dementia.
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Massa nya What are the odds? Idag rockar vi sockorna ❤❤❤ #rockasockan #downsyndrome. 25.
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2003-07-01 · Continued "Paternal age has an effect on Down syndrome but only in mothers 35 years old and older," write researcher Harry Fisch, MD, of the department of urology at Columbia-Presbyterian Medical
tional age to examine anatomy and measure nuchal Screening for Down syndrome based on maternal age or nad av en viss ultraljudsmarkör) minskar odd-. METHODS: A cohort of 100 males diagnosed with AS at a mean age of 11 years has Keywords: Asperger syndrome; Autism Spectrum Disorder; Psychiatric comorbidity; associated with low social skills and odd or bizarre personality traits. All vary down to 75% even though most studies report diagnostic stability in the. av A Stuart — Take down policy.
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A funky savory yeast bouquet lays down a firm foundation, fruity esters and tart acidity §ucaba is built to last and can age for years to come (we recommend of our beers are programmed with the Methuselah Syndrome and hops fade fast
Frequency of Fetuses with Down. Syndrome to Normal Fetuses. at 16 weeks of pregnancy.


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Doc Halladay: By the Numbers
It's still very early in the season and Roy Halladay has just four starts under his belt, but it's hard not to pick up on some of the incredibly dominating stats he's putting up. Let's take a look at some of those crazy-good numbers:
2 complete games: Only 11 other pitchers have one and they include C.J Wilson, David Huff, and Mitch Talbot.
His 33 innings and 28 strikeouts in 4 starts leads the majors.
His BABIP (Batting Average/Balls in Play) is actually at .282, well above some of the other top pitchers in baseball such as Tim Lincecum (.250), Adam Wainwright (.194) and C.C. Sabathia (.204). His peripherals would be even better with a BABIP closer to those hurlers.
His 9.33 k/BB ratio is by far the best in baseball. He's issued 3 free passes, which would put him on pace for roughly 26 in a 34 start season.
He has gone to a 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 count just 5 times in four starts. In those AB's, he's given up no hits.
Hitters have managed just an .087 average with RISP. The guy hunkers down when he needs to.
Halladay is on pace to throw 382 innings. Reachable? You never know with this guy.
Doc is barely breaking a sweat. His pitches thrown per outing: 88, 111, 100, 113 – an average of 103 per game.
Strikes? He throws a lot of those too. Try 69 percent of his pitches thrown.
Related Items:Adam Wainwright, Babip, Balls, Baseball, C C Sabathia, Complete Games, David Huff, Doc Halladay, Hurlers, J Wilson, Majors, Mitch Talbot, Pace, Peripherals, Pitchers, Pitches, Roy Halladay, Strikes, Sweat, Tim Lincecum
Watch: Roy Halladay number retirement ceremony
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Gameday: Phillies (9-5) at Braves (8-6)