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Bond returns and market expectations
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Carlo Altavilla
(Institute for Fiscal Studies)
Riccardo Costantini
Raffaella Giacomini
() (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL)
A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and to construct profitable investment strategies in bond markets. We use a tilting method for incorporating market expectations into forecasts from a standard term-structure model and then derive the implied forecasts for bond excess returns. We find that the method delivers substantial improvements in out-of-sample accuracy relative to a number of benchmarks. The accuracy improvements are both statistically and economically significant and robust across a number of maturities and forecast horizons. The method would have allowed an investor to obtain positive cumulative excess returns from simple "riding the yield curve" investment strategies over the past ten years, and in this respect it would have outperformed its competitors even after accounting for a risk-return tradeoff.
Carlo Altavilla & Riccardo Costantini & Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:20/13
File URL: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wps/cwp201313.pdf
Other versions of this item:
Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2014. "Bond Returns and Market Expectations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 708-729.
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Yield curve modelling; futures; market timing; exponential tilting; Kullback-Leibler;
JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
NEP-FMK-2013-06-09 (Financial Markets)
NEP-FOR-2013-06-09 (Forecasting)
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Wire - '10:20'
London's shoegaze heroes dig through the archive on new collection
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


As of the effective date of these amended bylaws, indicated from the signature of the sitting Secretary/Treasurer of Helena Young Professionals (hereinafter the "corporation") at the conclusion of this document, ratifying that all necessary and proper events for full, final, and proper adoption of these amended bylaws has occurred, these AMENDED BYLAWS provide the provisions for regulating and managing the affairs of the corporation, consistent with applicable law and the Articles of Incorporation.
The name of the corporation persists, as filed with the Secretary of State in the Articles of Incorporation, as "Helena Young Professionals (HYP)". The name "Helena Young Professionals" or the acronym "HYP" are also suitable names when conducting business for the corporation.
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The term of an executive board office commences at the time of inauguration of officers during the first regular executive board meeting after an annual meeting of the membership, and concludes at the time of inauguration of officers at the first regular executive board meeting after the next annual meeting of the membership.
Any regular voting member, who is current on their dues, is eligible to run for an open office on the executive board. Officers are elected in to executive board offices by a simple majority of a quorum of the membership at an annual meeting. An officer's term of service in office commences upon inauguration at the first annual meeting of the executive board after the annual meeting in which that officer was elected, and concludes upon the expiration of that office, as set forth pursuant to the provisions of Article IV, Section B.
An executive board officer has all of the powers, duties, rights, and responsibilities of that officer's office. Any executive board officer has the authority to act as an agent of the corporation.
The executive board has regular meetings at times and places determined by the members of the executive board, provided that reasonable advance notice is given to other members of the executive board, that notice also being available to the membership upon request. In extraordinary circumstances the executive board may conduct its business electronically, or other means which accomplish the business of the executive board. Any member may attend executive board meetings. Any member attending an executive board meeting may address the executive board upon questioning from any executive board officer, or at a duly designated point in an executive board meeting, upon prior request to an executive board officer.
The executive board officers present at any executive board meeting constitute a quorum. If two or more executive board members convene or are present, but no advance notice that corporate business would be considered has been given, it is not considered an executive board meeting. If executive board business is conducted through means other than in-person voting, a quorum consists of all current officers able to participate in corporate business. Voting may occur by any means which are reasonable.
An executive board officer may resign that office at any time by written notification to the other members of the executive board. Resignation from office has no automatic effect on the resigning officer's status as a member.
Any officer may be removed regardless of the existence of cause by the affirmative vote of a two-thirds majority of the executive board officers sitting in office, other than the officer whose termination is being considered. The members may also terminate the service of an officer by a simple majority, at a special meeting of the members. Any officer whose membership is terminated is also automatically terminated from office. Any officer whose service is terminated forfeits all rights and privileges associated with that office, and remains liable for any amounts owed to the corporation other than as set forth herein.
Vacancies in an executive board office occurring during the term of an office may be filled, for the remaining term of that office or until a special members meeting is held to fill that vacancy, by unanimous consent of the directors.
In emergency or exigent circumstances, the executive board may take any steps necessary to ensure ongoing operations of the corporation.
a. The President's duties are to ensure business is conducted in a manner that maintains compliance with the purpose of the organization and the priorities of the membership; while improving the quality and operations of the corporation and its functions.
b. The President ensures that the executive board is appropriately aware of issues and concerns facing the organization, and has the opportunity to weigh in on these matters.
c. The President chairs the planning for an articulation of a vision for the corporation.
d. The President schedules, develops agendas for, and chairs, meetings for the executive board, and ensures minutes are recorded for those meetings.
e. The President is responsible for maintaining formal and informal communications with all members of the executive board and ensuring individuals have the appropriate resources and support necessary to be successful in their roles and responsibilities. This includes fostering and maintaining positive working relationships, ensuring open communication and questioning, following up with executive board members about current and upcoming responsibilities or tasks, and being willing to step into whatever non-primary support role needed to ensure operational success.
f. The President serves the corporation additionally as a formal and informal representative, and is expected to conduct themselves in a manner that would reflect well on its membership.
a. In the event the President is unable or unwilling to fulfill the duties of President, the Vice President assumes the role of President, in addition to the Vice President's other duties.
b. The Vice President partners with the President to ensure business is conducted in a manner that maintains compliance with the purpose of the corporation and the priorities of the membership; while improving the quality and operations of the corporation and its functions.
c. The Vice President is responsible for helping to develop and drive the vision of the corporation and aid the President in a myriad of ways to ensure the communication and activities occurring are being done so with an eye to efficiency and creativity.
d. The Vice President takes lead, upon direction of the President, on various projects or initiatives developed throughout an executive board term year. The President and Vice President are jointly responsible for ensuring appropriate assessment, progress, and completion of these initiatives; while reporting out to the executive board on these matters.
e. The Vice President serves the corporation additionally as a formal and informal representative, and is expected to conduct themselves in a manner that would reflect well on its membership.
f. The Vice President keeps records of the existing membership and members' contact information, and reports that information to the executive board.
a. Each Event Chairs' duties include, but are not limited to, working with other Event Chairs and other members of the executive committee to organize and facilitate events that promote professional development, networking opportunities or community volunteerism. Each Event Chair is responsible for organizing two to three events throughout the year, as well as HYP Networking Luncheons, as assigned by a majority of the quorum of the full executive board. Event Chairs are responsible for progressive, timely, and specific steps to ensure the success of that Event Chair's assigned events, and for reporting back to the Board any questions, concerns or support which is needed.
b. Each Event Chair is responsible for proper contracting, planning, setup, and other arrangements for events for which each Event Chair may be assigned.
a. The Public Relations Chair's duties include, but are not limited to, managing strategic communications between the executive board, its members, and the public. The Public Relations Chair works directly with Event Chairs to publicize upcoming events and activities of the board through multiple means of communication, such as email, social media, and the website. Furthermore, the Public Relations Chair oversees and maintains an effective communications strategy to engage members and the public in the organization, and to help build membership.
b. In the event the President, and Vice President, are both unable or unwilling to fulfill the duties of President, the Public Relations Chair assumes the role of President, in addition to the Public Relations Chair's other duties.
a. The Secretary's duties include, but are not limited to, taking proper minutes and other notations of meetings of the executive board or the membership; seeing that those noted minutes are available for future use for the business of the corporation; maintaining (including checking upon and making proper responses to) any electronic mail, cloud-based, or similar systems for communications to the executive board, the membership, or other stakeholders; and maintaining any electronic or other systems which allow the executive board to archive and utilize documentary resources such as forms, templates, minutes, agendas, promotional materials, corporate and tax documents and forms, press documents, and legal documents.
a. The Treasurer's duties include, but are not limited to, overseeing the financial assets of the corporation, ensuring income and assets are protected and adequately accounted for, that the corporation's financial obligations are paid in a timely fashion, the executive board receive regular reporting regarding the financial health of the corporation, and that all necessary filings are made in a timely fashion to preserve the corporation's non-profit status and tax- exempt status.
b. The office of the Treasurer has equal stature, rights, and obligations as any other executive board office. The Treasurer is not elected from the membership, but takes office upon election by a simple majority of a quorum of a sitting executive board.
The membership may make any changes to these AMENDED BYLAWS by a two- thirds majority of a quorum of members at an annual or special membership meeting.
I, Mark Lancaster, sitting Secretary/Treasurer of the Helena Young Professionals do hereby certify that the foregoing bylaws, under the caption Amended Bylaws of Helena Young Professionals, are the bylaws of the corporation, duly and properly adopted at the annual meeting of the members of the corporation, held on the 15th day of December, 2015.
Dated this day of _______December, 2015.


No matter what you do, you will keep having birthdays The way that your body and mind ages is completely within your control. Brush up on the latest advice about healthy aging. Earn a longer and healthier life by using what you learn. This advice is the key to getting more satisfaction from your senior years.
As you age, don't worry about numbers. Your age or your weight are numbers you should stop obsessing over. You most likely pay someone who focuses on your numbers so stop worrying yourself about them.
Talk to your doctor about the risks and benefits of taking Resveratrol. There have been promising studies about the youthful benefits of eating a well balanced and low calorie diet. The Resveratrol that naturally occurs in nuts and grapes can offer the same benefits. The Japanese knotweed contains resveratol and is often used to make supplements. There is also reseveratrol in a south American bush called Senna quinquangulata.
Being open to new things is a good way to keep you brain busy. You will get wiser as you age but make sure you also gain knowledge. You may want to consider taking a class at your community college or just work on a crossword puzzle each day. No matter what you do, it will allow your mind to work and help keep you feeling mentally sharp.
You are more than just a number, so don't dwell on things such as your age or height. Doctors are paid well to focus on things like your weight and your height. If you put to much focus on these things yourself you will only help yourself age more quickly.
Eating right is the smartest thing you can do in order to slow down the aging process. A balanced diet consists of fruits, vegetables, grains, protein, and foods that contain unsaturated fat. Eating this way ensures that your body is getting the nutrients it needs.
Get the recommended amount of sleep. By sleeping for a full seven hours or more each night you will maintain a normal hormone balance and feel more relaxed throughout the day. A lack of sleep will more you irritable and stressed making it difficult to enjoy your life to the fullest.
Avoid foundation and powders if you want to save your skin as you age. This is especially true as you get older since the skin needs to stay even more hydrated. See how simple products like lip gloss, mascara, and eyeliner can fit into your lifestyle.
Take the time to stop and smell the roses, and enjoy every day of your life. If you set goals for yourself, you'll feel a sense of accomplishment after you reach those goals and have a higher quality of life overall.
Aging can be done gracefully. Keep developing your body and mind and you'll live an exciting, vibrant life as you grow old gracefully. Look for opportunities in your day to day life to incorporate these ideas, and make your days work for you.


Cross Platform, Free Open Source Software Programs, That I Really Like to Use!
Sound editor for recording and editing sounds. You can digitize audio from old tapes and records, open and edit various sound file formats, and export your audio as wave, MP3 or Ogg Vorbis files.
I just added a website authoring resources page and moved the authoring resources to the new page.
Free online Optical Character Recognition tool. You can upload several different types of image files and Free OCR will extract the text from your image file.
A great site for information about scanning photographs and documents.
Common cleaners, lubricants, and solvents that can be used in place of small quantity, high priced specialty products.
Do it yourself vacuum forming plastic shells for pin ball machines or whatever you want.
Video film shot by Claude Friese-Greene and assistant using a color system based on using color sensitive black and white film shot and projected through alternating red and green filters. The color film system was developed by Claude Friese-Greene and his father William Friese-Greene.
Historical surveys of over 150 industrial sites in Philadelphia, Pa.
The longest burning light bulb in history. An incandescent light that has been in operation for over 100 years.
Search the PopSci archives! 137 years of Popular Science Magazine issues archived. Each issue appears as it did at it's time of publication.
An interactive submarine cable map showing active and planned underwater cables that carry data and voice information around the world.
Introduction to the Electric Universe (Official Movie on You Tube).
The Thunderbolts Project is the collaborative voice of the Electric Universe movement.
demonstration methods to show how machines work and the historical background of the machine being presented.
Watch streaming video of the original shows from this site!
A graphical wind map of the United States displaying current wind patterns and wind speed.
Stevie Wonder's "As" performed live by the vocal group Perpetuum Jazzile from Slovenia.
Toto's "Africa" performed live by the vocal group Perpetuum Jazzile from Slovenia.
Old time radio shows from archive.net.
Abbott & Costello, Benny Goodman, CBS Radio Mystery Theater, D-Day Prayer 1944 FDR, Dragnet, Fibber McGee and Molly, Amos & Andy, Glenn Miller, Groucho Marx, Gunsmoke, Jack Benny, Johnny Cash, Kate Smith Hour, Laurel and Hardy, Normandy Invasion, Orson Welles, Pearl Harbor Attack, Fireside Chat 1933 FDR, Bing Crosby and Rosemary Clooney, Red Skelton, Truth or Consequences, War of the Worlds, Winston Churchill Speeches, You Bet Your Life, and more.
You can browse the collection, or browse by subject / keywords, date, creator, or all items recently added listing first.
Music streaming from Muhlenberg College, Allentown, Pa.
Many cams to choose from with view of the beach, etc.
In 1978 Walter Muma took a 11,500 mile, 3 month trip starting from Toronto Canada and traveling through Canada and Alaska on a 49cc Motobecane moped.


Completely renovated and absolutely stunning 1.5 story home nestled on a large corner lot in the Easter Lake neighborhood! 3 enormous bedrooms (including a 1st floor master suite!), 3 baths, fully finished basement w/ a non-conforming 4th bedroom, fenced-in yard and awesome deck perfect for entertaining! Updates galore, NEW roof, siding, AC, furnace, water heater, and much more all in 2015!


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Listen to America!
Scott Brown listened to the American people. Washington didn't, and apparently still doesn't want to hear what they are saying.
White House advisers are trying to convince themselves and the media that the Massachusetts election wasn't about health reform, saying it wasn't an issue there because Massachusetts already has enacted reform.
But that's why it is such a big issue. Bay State voters are up close and personal with the kind of reform measures Washington has been devising. Their health costs continue to soar, they face mandates dictating what insurance they must have, and businesses and individuals are buried under onerous bureaucratic requirements and penalties. The Cato Institute has a new study out documenting this, validating findings from the Galen Institute's study last summer.
A Massachusetts resident made it very clear to a local TV interviewer before the election that his vote was going to be about Obamacare: "If I decide that the health plan they're working on in Washington is like what we have here, I'm voting for Brown," a voter said. He went on to criticize the tyrannies of the Massachusetts plan — the forced purchase of expensive insurance, the tax penalties, etc.
Scott Brown had the energy of the country behind him in Massachusetts because millions of people understood what was at stake. Make no mistake. His promise to vote against the bill was a key issue in his victory.
During the campaign, Brown repeatedly said: "One thing is clear: Voters do not want the trillion-dollar health-care bill that is being forced on the American people. This bill is not being debated openly and fairly. It will raise taxes, hurt Medicare, destroy jobs, and run our nation deeper into debt. It is not in the interest of our state or country — we can do better."
Rasmussen found that 52 percent of Bay State voters who were surveyed as the polls closed said they opposed federal health-reform measures, and 42 percent said they cast their ballot to help stop President Obama from passing his top domestic initiative.
Tony Fabrizio of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican firm, found similar sentiment in its exit poll of 800 voters. "A plurality of voters said their vote was to stop the president's health-care plan — more than those saying it was a vote against his policies in general," Fabrizio wrote in a memo that accompanied his exit polling.
Millions of people rightly have become frightened about the sweeping health-overhaul legislation that Congress was within a breath of passing. The more people learned about the legislation, the less they supported it. Their views would not change if the legislation were to pass, as Pelosi and Obama say. Opposition would instead become hardened.
While the leadership in Congress still is talking about pushing forward, they will have a very, very difficult time getting the votes in their own caucus to prevail. Rank and file members are running scared, realizing there is not a safe seat in the country.
The American people have been saying every way they can for a year that they are frightened about what President Obama's health overhaul — and his entire liberal agenda — would do to America, to our prosperity, and to our freedom.
In his quest for the Massachusetts Senate seat, Brown finally gave Americans a way to coalesce behind a candidate who could do something, promising to be the 41st vote against Obamacare — the man who could stand up against the machine.
But the astonishing thing is Democratic leaders still aren't listening. In yet another rebuff of representative democracy, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday "We will move forward," and she met all afternoon with colleagues trying to convince them to swallow the despised and pork-laden Senate bill.
The only path to passage of reform legislation now is for the president and the leaders in Congress to work with members from both sides of the aisle to come up with a smaller, more reasonable bill.
The American people have made it clear they want health insurance that is reliable and more affordable and that does not exclude people with pre-existing conditions. Congress could start by helping states to create more functional high-risk pools, by giving people more choices of how and where they purchase health insurance, and by assuring people that if they have coverage, they can keep it. They need to create a path toward ownership of health insurance and genuine competition among insurers. And now that people know how much wasteful spending there is in Medicare and Medicaid, they want that fixed.
There is a world of policy complexity behind these initiatives, but Congress must start by respecting that people value private health insurance, don't want huge disruptions and losses of freedom or massive new taxes and entitlement costs. Then a new conversation can begin.
The most important thing is to get the incentives right so that power and control over health-care decisions rests with doctors and patients and not politicians and bureaucrats.
Published in National Review Online: Critical Condition, Jan. 21, 2010.


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Home / Language / European Culture and Politics / Principles of European democracy
Principles of European democracy
In this video, Dr Stefan Couperus explains why we should see contemporary definitions and practices of democracy as constructed and open to change.
Democracy ranks among the most opaque and misused terms in modern times. Even the most questionable regimes have evoked democracy as their guiding principle. Whether it is the German Democratic Republic, the former Communist East Germany, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea, or one of the USA's major political parties, the Democratic Party, all seem to adhere positively to democracy and its values. A cynical definition could then amount to something like this. Democracy can be used by anyone and could mean anything. It is a rhetorical tool with which a regime, a country, a party, an organisation claims to rule on behalf of the people. Of course, this is an unsatisfactory definition.
Yet, it does bring us to the two etymological constituents of the term in Greek rule Kratos, and people Demos. Literally, democracy means rule by the people. And ever since the first use of the term some 2000 years ago in ancient Athens, it is exactly those two components that have continuously been contested. Who are the people? And how can the people rule? In general, it took until the late 19th century that democracy was perceived as something good or desirable. Before that, rule by the people was synonymous to mob rule or tyranny of the majority. Monarchy, rule by one monarch, and aristocracy, rule by the few, were generally seen as more stable alternatives.
It took dramatic political and social changes before democracy would entail the promise it holds today, free elections, freedom of expression, and popular politics. The answer to the first question, who comprise the demos, had indeed changed dramatically in the last two centuries. Up until the French, American, and Haitian Revolutions of the late 18th century, the political community, the demos, comprised only the happy few, the male, white, rich, and noble. The French Revolution added to the demos the bourgeoisie, the middle class. The American Revolution brought about a non-European demos, and the Haitian revolution created a demos of former slaves and previously excluded indigenous peoples.
In general, the demos in most parts of the Western world increasingly included emancipating groups, such as former slaves, the working class, and women. Based on the well accepted principle one man, one vote, individuals of all classes, sexes, and ethnicities, were ultimately granted the vote or elected in order to participate in democratic political processes in Western societies and elsewhere. This brings us automatically to the answer on the second question. How can the people then rule? How does one organise a democracy? And as the scale and size of modern societies increased over the centuries, it was evident that the people as a whole could never rule.
Enlightened political thinkers such as Jean Jacques Rousseau were convinced that, principally, the general will of the people could not be separated or represented in government. However, it was practically impossible to have millions of people decide over their own public affairs directly. Indirect democracy, thus, was imperative. It was perceived necessary to select a few from the many who'd assembled to decide over public affairs. The era of representative democracy ushered in by the middle of the 19th century. The ballot box became the main institution through which the few were selected by the many. Elections, not lot appointment or nomination, has since developed as the main method or even equation of democracy.
Political parties emerged by the end of the 19th century as mediators between the demos, the political community, and the ballot box. As the rest of this week will show, European democracy and debates about its deficits, legitimacy, and procedures, in essence hark back to continuously contested definitions of the demos and of rule. Again, who comprise the demos and how can they rule. This particularly applies to thinking about organising democracy beyond national borders, such as in the case of the European Union.
Democracy ranks among the most opaque and misused terms in modern times. Even the most questionable regimes have evoked democracy as their guiding principle. A cynical definition could then amount to something like this: Democracy can be used by anyone and could mean anything – even nothing.
Literally, democracy means rule (kratos) by the people (demos). But: who are the people? And how can the people rule?
This content is taken from University of Groningen online course
European Culture and Politics
Hi there! We hope you're enjoying our article: Principles of European democracy
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Personally, I get frustrated when people pontificate their personal beliefs as to why they think something 'bad' happens, not just to themselves, but generalized across the board to everyone. It doesn't matter that the 'bad' thing is an injury, an illness, the breakup of a relationship or a job, a school shooting, terrorist attack or war. The reasons that led up to that may be as multiple as there are people.
Even if you get positive results by correcting what you think may be the reason, it remains a theory until your correction completely resolves the problem. Otherwise, it may only be a part of the picture. But just because it appears true for you in that specific instance, and even if it is helpful for you does not mean that it is true or going to prove beneficial for everyone.
I have noted that the reasons cited as responsible for any particular problem change over time and over cultures. To me this proves that such explanations are beliefs or theories rather than truth. Some are more popular than others during a particular decade with particular groups – national, regional, ethnic, economic, educational, religious, or political subcultures. Some come straight out of the teaching of a particular movement, guru, book or even a fad. Popularity can never be a criteria for truth.
For example, in the past, it was actively taught that bad genes were responsible for many diseases. But thanks to the work of biologist, Dr. Bruce Lipton, we now know that almost all given genes can be expressed in a number of different ways, and it is the environment (or the perception of it) that determines whether a specific gene with that disease as one of many possibilities will ever express itself in that way.
Dr. Ryke Geerd Hamer, MD proved that specific unexpected, emotional shocks are responsible for specific diseases developing in particular parts of the body at the specific point in time when such shocks occurred. So instead of the person creating the illness, they didn't have the emotional or other resources at the time to prevent it because they didn't know how to handle something very upsetting happening outside of them, not of their own creation.
It's very popular in the New Age Movement to think that you attract or create everything that happens to you. This is more helpful, perhaps, than thinking that you are victim, or that it is God's will and that you just have to suffer instead of taking active measures to change things. But if you are creating your reality, what about the possibility that everyone else is doing so at the same time, and that these various creations are crossing paths? If according to a theory that everyone is interconnected, what you do effects me and vice versa.
Perhaps you were hit by a car as crossing the road. Perhaps the hospitalization gives you time to reconsider your life and it's direction, your relationships, what's important, etc. That can lead to important changes. Maybe you become more appreciative of others. Perhaps you have to learn patience, tolerance, and compassion for others who also suffer. You may as a result become a better or more pleasant person. It may force you to grow. But does that mean that God or your soul set it up, or that it was destined to happen as a part of your life script? Maybe yes, but maybe no.
Such introspection and positive changes might be your chosen response to the situation, not the reason for it.
You could have responded by becoming angry, hostile to caretakers, impatient, and, consequently, destroying your relationships. You could have become a worse, not better person.
Perhaps the accident teaches you to remember to look both ways before crossing the street, or to not burn the candle at both ends so that you can stay alert to potential danger. Maybe you learn that you need to focus on what you are doing, or to resolve that issue that is disturbing your sleep. Maybe you should not be trying to use the cell phone or text when entering the intersection.
On the other hand, maybe the driver needs also to keep his eyes on the road instead of trying to text as well. Maybe he needs to not burn the candle at both ends, or not drink before driving. Maybe he needs to resolve those issues that are distracting him from paying attention. Maybe he needs an anger management class so that he slows down and is less aggressive while driving.
Maybe there needs to be a traffic light at that busy intersection but the mayor has been slow to address a dangerous situation already known to him.
But does any of this mean that God or the universe set it up, or that you volunteered to get hit so that other people would learn?
my belief is that you will get another opportunity to do so later. In my experience, the universe comes in with a 2 X 4 next time.
Yes, I believe things happen for a reason or multiple ones, but such may be more complicated or different than what you think. The causation may be unknowable. Hence, I advise being open minded to other explanations until you fully resolve the issue. And still the answers might be elusive or incomplete. You may get results without understanding why.
The reasons may be such a composite of the environment, the stress and or psychological milieu of multiple other people, the society and the times, so that they cannot be brought down to a single, simple explanation. It can be similar to a recipe – a little of this, a little of that, add in other people, stir it up, wait awhile. The buildup can take lifetimes. The causes can be multigenerational.
In short, I don't believe in easy answers.
Asking 'why', then has only marginal value.
Should you ask it? Of course, because you might well find answers. But also consider that you may be either wrong or incomplete in your analysis. The reasons why might be multiple. Leave room in your mind to be open to additional possibilities that might help.
What positive learning can I gain from this?
What do I want to do to make things better moving forward?
How can I turn this into a blessing for me or someone else?
Copyright 9/2018 by Roxanne Louise. However, this article may be shared in other free online sources only if this copyright notice and link to http://www.roxannelouise.com and http://unlimitedpotentialhealingcenter.com areincluded with the content.


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Denise Richards says she was 'naïve' during first season on 'Real Housewives': 'I want to be myself'
Denise Richards is opening up about her experience starring in "The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills."
Richards, 49, recently made headlines when a clip from the show contained an allegation that the actress had an affair with her "Housewives" co-star Brandi Glanville.
That storyline will unfold during Richard's current and second season, though a hiatus has put a hold on new episodes.
'REAL HOUSEWIVES OF ATLANTA' STAR EVA MARCILLE ANNOUNCES EXIT FROM REALITY SERIES
While this season contains some emotional drama for Richards, she said during a recent appearance on SiriusXM's "The Jess Cagle Show" that the first season was a bit more light-hearted.
Denise Richards, actress and star of 'The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills.'
"I went in very naïve, I think, the very first season," Richards admitted, per People. "I want to be myself, because some people do know of me and I didn't want to play a character, otherwise let's call it scripted. So I just wanted to be myself on the show, and you know, whatever happens, happens, and just react how I really would."
She noted that while she "had a great time" during her first season, her second season has "been very different" for her.
T.I.'S DAUGHTER OPENS UP ABOUT FATHER'S PAST COMMENTS ON HER VIRGINITY: IT WAS 'TRAUMATIZING FOR ME'
"It's been a different experience," Richards said. "But, you know, people are watching, so that's good."
Amid the intense drama of the season, rumors began to swirl that Richards abruptly left the show, but she put those rumors to bed, claiming that she did not "stop filming."
"We wrapped in December. I missed two parties … towards the end, so I didn't stop filming and I actually think I filmed something on FaceTime for one of the parties," the "Wild Things" star recalled. "The other party I did not go to, so I didn't stop filming. We wrapped for the season and then we do all our confessionals and everything,"
Fans have had to wait to see some of the drama unfold for Richards and her co-stars as the show was recently put on hiatus without much explanation, but Richard suspects that coronavirus is to blame.
"I think that we're on hiatus because we got so far behind with the confessionals with the COVID," she explained. "We just recently started doing them where we're filming ourselves basically. We have someone come in and set everything up with a mask … so we got behind for that. So I think that's part of the reason why we have to go on hiatus."
She added: "We gotta catch up with the episodes."
Finally, the actress noted that if the season "airs the way it was shot," fans will see how her story unfolds on the show.
Read More: Denise Richards says she was 'naïve' during first season on 'Real Housewives': 'I want to be myself'
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Every planet in the solar system visible in rare "planet parade"…
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The Supreme Court of Canada and other courts of appeal heard cases in 2018 that dealt with important issues in class action practice that are currently under reserve. We review key cases and the impact they may have in 2019, both on class action procedure and various areas of law.
Competition law: who gets to be part of the class?
Canadian courts are currently split over whether a category of claimants known as "umbrella purchasers" can be included in a class seeking damages from alleged conspirators in a class action. In mid-December, the Supreme Court heard arguments in Pioneer et al. v. Neil Godfrey,1 which gives the Court the opportunity to provide the definitive answer: are they in or are they out?
Plaintiffs in competition class actions usually seek damages from co-conspirators who are alleged to have raised prices of their goods, on behalf of both direct purchasers (those who bought the good directly from a defendant) and indirect purchasers (usually end-users, though there can be other intermediate purchasers in the supply chain). Umbrella purchasers are in a different category: they purchased the affected product from non-conspirators—however, they allege the conspiracy created a price "umbrella" allowing other firms to charge higher prices than they otherwise would have.
In Godfrey, the defendants are alleged to have fixed the prices of optical disk drives (ODDs). Direct purchasers bought ODDs from the defendants and assembled them into other products—like laptops—which were purchased by end users. The umbrella purchasers, included in the proposed class, did not purchase ODDs made by the defendants, or products containing them. Instead, they purchased their ODDs from non-conspirators. The umbrella purchasers allege the ODDs they purchased from the non-conspirators cost more than they would have in the absence of the conspiracy.
Godfrey has the potential to expand the size of plaintiff classes involved in competition class actions and thus the potential to increase exposure for defendants.
Some judges in Ontario have reasoned that principles of indeterminate liability justify refusing to certify umbrella claims, while British Columbia courts have expressly rejected the Ontario courts' analysis and found that those purchasers could be part of a class action. Although the Ontario Court of Appeal sided with the BC courts in its mid-October decision in Shah v. LG Chem Ltd.,2 the Supreme Court will have the final word when it releases its reasons in Godfrey.
Godfrey has the potential to expand the size of plaintiff classes involved in competition class actions and thus the potential to increase exposure for defendants. If umbrella purchasers' claims are permitted then assessing harm in these claims will be made even more complex as they move toward trial, because another group of claimants will have to be considered in the damages analysis.
Expert evidence: how much evidence is enough?
In the competition area, the debate boils down to this: does the expert need to show that the proposed method for determining harm can identify specific purchasers who suffered harm and calculate their damages, or only that overcharges have been passed on from the direct purchasers to the indirect purchaser class? If the Supreme Court accepts the former, it will likely make it more difficult (and more expensive) for plaintiffs to succeed in certifying competition class actions.
The British Columbia Court of Appeal will tackle a different aspect of the expert evidence question in a case called Ewert v. Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, argued in late 2018.7 In that case, the application judge applied what he characterized as the "low threshold" for scrutiny of expert opinions described in the Pro-Sys case and declined to certify the case because the plaintiffs' expert had not identified the specific sources of data needed for his damages model. In other words, there was no evidence of the availability of the data to which the methodology would be applied. The application judge stated that "in the absence of providing some evidence of the data [the expert] says is necessary, his opinion is ultimately purely theoretical."8 This case is one of the only examples in competition class actions of a judge denying certification because of deficiencies with the expert evidence. The BCCA's decision will provide plaintiffs and defendants with guidance about how much scrutiny courts are allowed to give to expert opinions at the certification stage, and how far experts must go in these cases to identify data sources.
Employment: are class actions viable vehicles for discrimination claims?
We have previously written about the rising number of sexual harassment and discrimination class actions in Canada in "Class Actions in Canada Part 3: Sexual Harassment and Discrimination Class Actions." One of these cases, Lewis v. WestJet Airlines Ltd, is currently on appeal to the BC Court of Appeal, which will hear WestJet's appeal from the denial of its motion to strike the claim in late January 2019.9 The Court of Appeal's decision may provide clarity on the extent to which these claims are viable as proposed class actions (rather than complaints to human rights tribunals).
WestJet argued that the plaintiff's claim concerned gender-based discrimination, and should therefore be before the Canadian Human Rights Commission, not the courts.
In Lewis, a former flight attendant commenced a proposed class action on behalf of all present and former flight attendants seeking damages for breach of contract and systemic gender-based discrimination. The claim alleges that WestJet's failure to properly investigate and respond to claims of sexual harassment amounts to a systemic breach of employees' employment contracts, which incorporate the company's anti-harassment policy.
On its motion to strike, WestJet argued that the plaintiff's claim concerned gender-based discrimination, and should therefore be before the Canadian Human Rights Commission, not the courts. The BC Supreme Court accepted that the damages claim for discrimination was misconceived, but found that it was not plain and obvious that the claim for breach of contract had no reasonable prospect of success, and allowed it to continue.
1SCC File Nos. 37809 and 37810, on appeal from Godfrey v. Sony Corporation, 2017 BCCA 302.
2 Shah v. LG Chem Ltd., 2018 ONCA 819.
3 Pro-Sys Consultants Ltd. v. Microsoft Corporation, 2013 SCC 57; Sun-Rype Products Ltd. v. Archer Daniels Midland Company, 2013 SCC 58; and Infineon Technologies AG v. Option consommateurs, 2013 SCC 59.
5 See for example Charlton v. Abbott Laboratories, 2015 BCCA 26 and O'Brien v. Bard Canada Inc., 2015 ONSC 2470.
6 See for example Andriuk v. Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., 2014 ABCA 177.
7 On appeal from Ewert v. Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, 2017 BCSC 2357.
8 2017 BCSC 2357, para. 53.
9 BC Court File No. CA45034, on appeal from 2017 BCSC 2327.
10 Rivers v. Waterloo Regional Police Services Board, 2018 ONSC 4307.
12 To date collective actions are permitted in the human rights tribunals of Canada, BC, Manitoba, North West Territories, Nunavut, Quebec, and Saskatchewan: Canadian Human Rights Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. H-6, s. 40; Human Rights Code, R.S.B.C. 1996, c. 210, s. 21(4)(b); The Human Rights Code, C.C.S.M., c. H175, s. 22(1), and see definition of "person" under s. 1; Human Rights Act, S.N.W.T. 2002, c. 18, s. 29(1); Human Rights Act, S.Nu 2003, c. 12, s. 21, 22(1)(b); Charter of human rights and freedoms, C.Q.L.R., c. C-12, s. 74; The Saskatchewan Human Rights Code, S.S. 1979, c. S-24.1, s. 27(1)(b).
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty may pose some challenges, but there is still room for growth as technology continues its sweeping transformation of business and industry.
Does your real estate purchase agreement give you "liquid courage" through post-closing credit enhancement?


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How to Become a Writer: Jenny Ackland
This series is based on an early short-story by Lorrie Moore called 'How to Become a Writer', a wry account of all the seemingly random events, choices and missteps that led a young woman to dedicate herself to a life of putting words on paper. This is a subject I'm fascinated by. Whenever I talk to authors, read their interviews or hear them speak, I'm struck by the enormous variety of routes there are to the same end-point.
There are those who come to writing through study, others are self-taught; some begin early while others are 'late-bloomers'; some are lucky enough to find mentors, others go it alone; some begin as teachers, editors or in other word-related professions, others come from lives as accountants or sheep shearers. I take tremendous comfort in knowing there's more than one way to pack a sack; that just because you haven't done certain things (like gone to university), doesn't mean you can't become a writer; we must each find our own path to the writing life.
Jenny Ackland is a writer and teacher from Melbourne. She has worked in offices, sold textbooks in a university bookshop, taught English overseas and worked as a proof-reader and freelance editor. Her short fiction has been published in literary magazines and listed in prizes and awards. Her debut novel The Secret Son – a "Ned Kelly-Gallipoli mash-up" about truth and history – was published in 2015. Little Gods is her second novel.
I first got to know Jenny through Twitter, and then we had lunch together when she came to Perth Writers Festival a few years ago. But I really got to know her when we found ourselves staying at the same hotel during Ubud Writers Festival in 2015, where she was launching her debut novel The Secret Son. We had breakfast together every day, as well as lounging by the pool, and talked about reading, writing, parenting, marriage, and even romantic dreams! Since then we've shared other reading and life adventures, including an overlapping retreat at KSP Writers Centre, a Bad Diaries Salon, a super-crazy night at Fringe Festival and KARAOKE (Jenny has a super-chill karaoke style – she lies on the banquette and sings like she could take it or leave it; it's very impressive). Her latest novel knocked my socks off and I'm thrilled to feature her journey to writing here.
Little Gods
A rare, original and stunning novel about a remarkable girl who learns the hard way that the truth doesn't always set you free – with echoes of Jasper Jones, Seven Little Australians and Cloudstreet.
As a child, trapped in the savage act of growing up, Olive had sensed she was at the middle of something, so close to the nucleus she could almost touch it with her tongue. But like looking at her own nose for too long, everything became blurry and she had to pull away. She'd reached for happiness as a child not yet knowing that the memories she was concocting would become deceptive. That memories get you where they want you not the other way around.
Here's Jenny on her journey to writing:
I'm not one of those people who talks about 'always having wanted to be a writer.' I was always good at reading and spelling, English and writing in school, but it was the love for reading that I think is key to me being drawn to creative expression through writing. I read voraciously all the way through childhood, adolescence and into early adulthood. I kept diaries for years, noting down small observations, writing pages of banal accounts of my daily doings. But in those pages, there was some kind of synthesis going on, a circling around my eventual destination, and with the reading and the recording, I was developing a 'nose': for observation, for drama, for interesting detail.
For me, as I suspect for many writers, to trace an author's beginnings you only have to look at their reading history. I've met only one author who, when I asked what did you read when you were growing up, told me they 'didn't really read'. I found this staggering, almost unbelievable. How can a writer form and shape their craft without innumerable books informing the DNA of their own work? Maybe it's possible, but for the most part, writers read. A lot.
I read on the toilet, in bed, on the couch, in tents while camping, in cubbies, on the lawn. I read all weekend, for hours during the day on holidays. I read Enid Blyton Faraway Tree and Wishing Chair books, then later the Mallory Towers boarding school series. I read CS Lewis and various one-off magic books: The Little Broomstick. I remember going through a Grimms Fairytales period. Library borrowing. And then the classics like Heidi, Peter Pan. Charlie Brown comics. I was mad about horses so there were all the horse books too: Jill's Pony Club. I was obsessed with Thelwell, BC caveman comics, as well as Asterix and Obelix, and Tintin. Then, in my adolescence, I segued into more adult fiction: Dick Francis, Robert Ludlam. I read the classics at school – I adored Wuthering Heights – but my personal reading was 'easier'. I read James Clavell. I read Sidney Sheldon, Jackie Collins. I wasn't at all snobbish in what I read; I inhaled all of it. Then, in my twenties, I discovered John Irving, and Peter Carey. Carey's Illywacker made a big impression on me. I think you could trace the genesis of my own writing back to those early authors I adored.
The nuggets of encouragement
All writers have these, but they can be few and far between. I remember a teacher in Year 7 reading out one of my stories to the whole grade; a tutor in university who said maybe I could publish a short story I'd written as part of assessment. Then my first publication, a short story published in a university magazine – that was in 2000. I estimate ten years elapsed between the first nugget and second, and maybe more than twenty between second and third. But these three things stand out for me, looking back.
Once I had decided to have a proper crack at writing to be published, slowly more nuggets started coming my way. I worked hard, I kept going. I built a small list of publishing credits: a short story, then a creative fiction piece, a poem. Getting an agent was incredibly affirming. Having 'excellent' rejections from publishers was also encouraging. Applying for and receiving a Creative Victoria grant. Being awarded fellowships at writing residencies. All of these things accumulated and gave me confidence and the feeling that I had some small industry credibility. But they don't come floating along on the breeze; I realised I had to make them happen and put myself out there.
The learning
It was around 2009 that I decided to stop thinking about it and do it. I bought and read 'how to' writing craft books. I got busy with workshops, went to festivals, immersed myself in the literary world of Melbourne. I formed a writing group with people I met at a year-long 'write your novel' course through Writers Victoria, and for a few years I was a serious workshop junkie. My teachers have included Carmel Bird, Andrea Goldsmith, Sallie Muirden, Chris Womersley, Craig Sherbourne, Jon Bauer, Rebecca Starford, Antoni Jach, Toni Jordan, and even MJ Hyland and Colm Toibin at writers' festival masterclasses. I took something new from each and every workshop. Over time, the understanding of what I wanted to do and how I thought I could (maybe) do it started to cluster like filings to iron.
The first completed manuscript
Completing a book-length piece of fiction is only the beginning. It almost certainly requires much much more work – and even though it's possible to seek help by way of feedback from trusted first readers, paying an editor to help develop or strengthen it, I knew achieving progress in a real sense was all on me. I had to do the work. Some people write two or more novel manuscripts that never get shown to anyone. They then write a third or fourth and that's the one they use to try to get an agent's interest.
In Australia, the scene is so small and publishers often are open to submissions, a writer doesn't need an agent. But for me it was important to have an agent. For professional reasons – again in terms of credibility – but also for practical reasons. I didn't want to be negotiating contracts or otherwise dealing with the business side of my creative writing.
While the large publishing houses have certain times when unsolicited manuscripts can be sent in, it's important to be aware that the person on the other end, going through those submissions, is likely a junior assistant. It won't be a publisher who has power to take a novel to the acquisitions meeting, to champion your work. So, to avoid disappearing in the slush pile, an agent is preferable, or a connection to a decision-maker. Smaller publishers are different, and in some ways, being published by a smaller house has many advantages. There are different avenues of getting there, and what works for one person may not for another.
An agent will match a manuscript to the publisher they believe will most likely love it. I can't emphasise enough how much timing, personal taste, and other variables affect whether a manuscript is acquired or not. It's something I learned to accept. It truly may not be that the quality is lacking in any way; just that they published (or will publish) something on a similar topic, or the main character reminds them of someone they used to go out with. And still hate. Or some other seemingly innocuous reason. And it's not just the commissioning publisher who has to love it and want it. They then have to sell it to the rest of the team; marketing and sales have to be in agreement, and sometimes that is where an acquisition attempt falls over. I've heard stories of publishers in tears because they wanted to publish a manuscript they dearly loved and believed in, but could not get the rest of the company on side.
These are all the things no one really tells you – you come to know it by experience and over time. This is where you need to be tough. Rejections are a part of the game. Usually, repeated rejections are part of the game. Remember the nuggets above? And how they might be scattered across years or even decades? Well the rejections are often what fills in the spaces. You need a tough hide to stay in the business and keep pushing forward. In my case, my first published manuscript was actually my second one written. I had many rejections for both, but eventually both were published and I couldn't be happier. But just because I've been published twice, it doesn't mean the next is a given. Each will stand or fall on its own merits, especially as the industry tightens, publishers become more risk-averse.
The juggling
I run a teaching business – with a partner – and we train educators to deliver health and human relationships sessions in schools in and around Melbourne. It's been interesting building the business in parallel with devoting more time to my writing. I've had conversations with people about whether I want to teach creative writing but I don't think that would work for me. I like to earn my money from another field and that way it doesn't affect my writing, other than when I struggle to find time. But being self-employed means there is a lot more flexibility with regards to work hours and it has worked well for me. Many writers also work in arts fields, and they talk about being exhausted, struggling to get invoices paid, and then with no time or energy to do their own writing. I don't know what the answer is but the juggling is real for so many writers.
The nerve, the desire, the patience, the persistence, the confidence
These are all essential and at various times I found I needed them in bucket loads. That saying 'fake it until you make it?' It's not something that comes easily to women. But we have to be more ballsy. It's easy to lose confidence but I found myself many times having to hold my nerve; while waiting to hear from agents, publishers, editors and so on. Publishing moves slowly for months even over the course of a whole year or more, but then will quickly spin into action where deadlines loom and the pressure is on.
It's tempting to give in to panic, and rush to complete something, rush to show it to someone else before it is properly finished.
The writing community in Australia is pretty small and Twitter seems to be the hub where I found friends. There is nothing more interesting, instructive and enjoyable than talking about books, writing, craft with other writers. It's a generous bunch of people and there is a lot of support. I am really grateful to have found so many authentic connections with wonderful humans who are also writers.
Tips I got from others, that helped me
1. Follow every lead, you don't know where it will lead you
2. Say yes to everything
3. Back yourself
How to Become a Writer: Susan Midalia
How to Become a Writer: Ryan O'Neill
Posted in Writerly Miscellany
2 thoughts on "How to Become a Writer: Jenny Ackland"
Jennifer Barry May 3, 2018
This was great. Thank you. Very real and genuine. And quietly encouraging. I loved the quote at the beginning of the article. Definitely makes me want to read Little Gods.
Annabel Smith May 4, 2018
Thanks, Jennifer. real is our brand here! But glad it was also encouraging. It is a wonderful read – add it to your pile!


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'Unbroken: Path to Redemption' is the rest of the Louis Zamperini's story.
"Unbroken: Path to Redemption" was an audience favorite, but a low earner at $2.4 million and a fourth place showing among new releases on its opening weekend, according to industry insider reports.
Audiences rated the movie an A in CinemaScore polling, the highest among new releases on more than 1,500 screens. The top grossing film of the weekend, "The Predator," rated a C-plus in CinemaScore polling and monetarily led a field of 13 new releases.
Billed as the next chapter of the 2014 box office success "Unbroken," the Pure Flix film unfolded World War II hero Louis Zamperini's acceptance of Christ as his savior at a 1949 Billy Graham crusade in Los Angeles. Evangelist Will Graham played the role of his grandfather.
On a weekend slate of 48 domestic films, "Unbroken: Path to Redemption" ranked ninth, averaging $1,451 per screen in 1,620 theaters, Box Office Mojo said.
"Outside the top five is where we find Pure Flix's 'Unbroken: Path to Redemption,' which fell to the lower end of industry expectations," Box Office Mojo said Sept. 16 of the film it had predicted would gross $5 million in its opening weekend.
The film's predecessor, the 2014 "Unbroken," grossed $30.6 million in its opening four-day weekend in December of that year after opening on Christmas. Angelina Jolie directed the film that focused on Zamperini's struggles as a POW in Japan, but stopped short of telling of his redemption after the war's end.
Will Graham praised the 2014 film, although he considered it decidedly an unfinished story of Zamperini, who died months before Jolie's film was released.
Both films are based on Laura Hillenbrand's bestselling book.


As a professional stunt coordinator and performer, Kid Richmond has been set on fire, crashed cars and fallen off of buildings. Now he spends his time in Park City, Utah, shredding powder during the winter and fabricating custom metal art through the summer. Curious to know more or see some of his work: then click enter!


Scottish Born Soldiers of the A.I.F.
We remember you, the fallen ones who gave your lives for our freedom.
Son of Joseph & Anna Maria Smylie, of 59, Burmah St., Belfast, Ireland.
Embarked: 20-10-1914, Adelaide, Sth. Aust. per "Ascanius"
Son of Joseph and Emily Smyth, of 8, Union Dale St., Belfast.
Born: Gortnanoon, Crosshaven, Co. Cork, Ireland.
Son of Jonas and Margaret Smyth.
Embarked: 29-12-1916, Fremantle, Western Australia per "Persic"
Son of William John and Ann Eliza Smyth, of The Birches, Milltown, Portadown, Ireland.
Embarked: 8-7-1916, Melbourne, Victoria per "Ajana"
Embarked: 8-2-1915, Fremantle, Western Australia per "Mashobra"
Husband of Dorothea May Snaden, Forrest Street, Kalgoorlie, W.A.
Embarked: 9-11-1916, Fremantle, Western Australia per "Argyllshire"
Embarked: 12-8-1916, Adelaide, South Australia per "Ballarat"
Embarked: 21-10-1914, Melbourne, Victoria per "Orvieto"
Born: Killy Clooney, Burndannett, Strabane, Co. Tyrone.
Embarked: 8-4-1915, Brisbane, Queensland per "Star of England"
Embarked: 17-11-1916, Sydney, N.S.W. per "Port Napier"
Son of Robert & Isabella Stewart (nee Cooke), of Killygullib, Kilrea, Co. Londonderry, Ireland.
Son of George & Margaret A. Stewart, of Ballyness, Dungiven, Londonderry, Ireland.
Embarked: 4-10-1915, Sydney, N.S.W. per "Mashobra"
Embarked: 23-12-1916, Fremantle, Western Australia per "Berrima"
Son of Andrew & Lucy Stoops, of "Beech House," Altnamackin, Castleblayney, Ireland.
Embarked: 2-5-1916, Sydney, New South Wales per "Hororata"
Embarked: 14-9-1915, Adelaide, South Australia per "Ballarat"
Son of Ruth Stuart, of Burracoppin, West. Aust., and the late Alexander M. Stuart.
Embarked: 29-6-1917, Fremantle, Western Australia per "Borda"
Embarked: 31-1-1916, Brisbane, Queensland per "Wandilla"
Embarked: 25-1-1915, Sydney, N.S.W. per "Eastern"
Re-Embarked: 11-3-1916, Sydney, N.S.W. per "Orsova"
Husband of Mary Sturgeon, of 41, Birchgrove Rd., Balmain, New South Wales.
Embarked: 30-9-1915, Sydney, N.S.W. per "Argyllshire"
Embarked: 1-11-1915, Fremantle, Western Australia per "Benalla"
Son of Dennis Sullivan & Georgina Lucy Shaw, his wife, Sheerness, Kent, England.
Embarked: 2-2-1915, Melbourne, Victoria per Clan MacGillivray"
Son of William & Elizabeth Sullivan, of 21, Abbey St. Tralee, Co.Kerry, Ireland.
Embarked: 28-3-1916, Brisbane, Queensland per "Commonwealth"
Next of Kin: Sister-in-law, Susan Thomas, 3 Flora St., Lakemba, N.S.W.
Embarked: 8-3-1916, Sydney, N.S.W. per "Star of England"
Served Munster Fusiliers for 10years - 6years N.C.O.
Embarked: 19-10-1914, Melbourne, Victoria per "Hororata"
Embarked: 3-1-1916, Brisbane, Queensland per "Kyarra"
Embarked: 7-9-1916, Brisbane, Queensland per "Clan MacGillivray"
Embarked: 24-5-1915,Brisbane, Queensland per "Ascanius"


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The speckle-breasted wren (Pheugopedius sclateri) is a species of bird in the family Troglodytidae. It is found in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

Taxonomy and systematics

The speckle-breasted wren has at times been treated as conspecific with rufous-breasted wren (P. rutilus) and  spot-breasted wren (P. maculipectus). They do form a superspecies.

The International Ornithological Committee (IOC) and the Clements taxonomy recognize three subspecies. The names in parentheses are from Clements.

P. s. sclateri (Marañon)  Taczanowski (1879)
P. s. columbianus (Colombian) Chapman (1924)
P. s. paucimaculatus (speckle-breasted) Sharpe (1882)

BirdLife International (BLI) treats all three subspecies as separate species and calls them the "Maranon", "Colombian", and "speckle-breasted" wrens.

Description

The nominate P. s. sclateri is  long and weighs . Adults have a reddish brown crown and a medium brown back and rump. Their tail has alternating gray and dull black bars. They have a narrow white supercilium and a dark eyestripe; the sides of the face and neck are mottled black and white. Their underparts from the chin down through the lower belly have fine black and white bars. The lower belly and flanks have bars but they are more diffuse, and the flanks also have a buff wash. Juveniles are similar to the adults but their underside's bars do not go as far down the belly.

P. s. columbianus is  long. Adults have uniform brown upperparts with a rufous tinge to the crown and their tails have broad dark bars. They have a narrow white supercilium. Their face and most of their underparts are white with black bars and spots; the flanks are dark buff.

P. s. paucimaculatus is  long. Males average  and females . Adults have uniform brown upperparts with black bars on the tail. They have a narrow white supercilium and black and white speckled cheeks. Most of the underparts are whitish, with a heavily black-speckled breast, and the flanks are rufescent. The juvenile is similar but its breast is not as heavily speckled.

Distribution and habitat

The subspecies of speckle-breasted wren are found thus:

P. s. sclateri (Marañon), the drainage of the Marañon River in extreme southern Ecuador and northern Peru
P. s. columbianus (Colombian), Colombia; separately the western slopes of the Central and Eastern Andes
P. s. paucimaculatus (speckle-breasted), south from Ecuador's Manabí Province into Peru's Department of Piura

The three subspecies occur in somewhat different habitats. P. s. sclateri inhabits the undergrowth of dry forest up to approximately  elevation. P. s. columbianus inhabits the thick understory of forest borders and open woodland at elevations between . P. s. paucimaculatus inhabits the interior and edges of deciduous semi-humid woodland, especially those with a dense understory. It ranges from the lowlands to approximately  in Ecuador and to  in Peru.

Behavior

Feeding

P. s. paucimaculatus is known to eat insects, and the other two subspecies are assumed to also be mostly or completely insectivorous. It and P. s. sclateri are known to forage in the understory, though the former also sometimes goes higher. They are usually in pairs and often join mixed-species foraging flocks. P. s. columbianus is assumed to have a similar strategy.

Breeding

Only P. s. paucimaculatus breeding phenology has been studied. Its breeding season apparently spans from April to September, based on the dates of observation of an active nest, of adults carrying food, and of recent fledglings. The one described nest was enclosed, made from sticks, vines, leaves, and lichen, and was on the ground; it held four eggs.

Vocalization

The songs of the three subspecies of speckle-breasted wren have no known differences. The song is "a series of fast, repeated phrases" sung by both sexes . The call is "a musical rising trill" .

Status

The IUCN has separately assessed all of the subspecies of speckle-breasted wren as being of Least Concern. All three have relatively small ranges. P. s. sclateri and P. s. paucimaculatus occur in several protected areas, are fairly common to common, and appear to have enough of their preferred habitats. However, the population of P. s. columbianus is believed to be decreasing due to habitat fragmentation and destruction.

References

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speckle-breasted wren
Birds of Ecuador
Birds of Peru
Birds of the Tumbes-Chocó-Magdalena
speckle-breasted wren
speckle-breasted wren
Taxonomy articles created by Polbot

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia