text:
Arctic "death spiral" or dead sensor?
As many readers have noted, one of the Arctic sea ice extent plots on our WUWT sea ice page took a Serreze style nosedive today:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
According to DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute), this is the source of the data:
The ice extent values are calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice.
And when I backtrace from OSISAF to find what satellite/sensor they used, this is what they say:
Data used: SSM/I (DMSP F15), ECMWF forecast for atmospheric correction
The glitch is reminiscent of the Feb 2009 failure of an SSMI sensor used by NSIDC.
That failure showed up on NSIDC's plot, and when I pointed it out with a blog post NSIDC responded that it "isn't worth blogging about".
Click for larger image
A couple of days later they were forced by the failure of the sensor to take their data offline, so apparently it was worth blogging about after all.
They wrote in the press release at the time:
Last year, F13 started showing large amounts of missing data. The sensor was almost 13 years old, and no longer provided complete daily data to allow us to track total daily sea ice extent. As a result, we switched to the DMSP F15 sensor for our near-real-time analysis.
And as noted above, DMI uses SSM/I (DMSP F15), the same as NSIDC. Is this glitch worth blogging about? I think so since NSIDC was unaware last time that a problem had developed until we pointed it out for them.
This looks like the beginning of the problem on August 6th, as seen at the OSI SAF page:
Source: http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108061200_pal.jpg
The day before on August 5th:
It may be related to the three Coronal Mass Ejections, (CME) that hit Earth about that time. From Spaceweather.com
Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on August 5th that sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years. Registering 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of magnetic disturbances, the storm at maximum sparked auroras across Europe and in many northern-tier US states.
It is possible the satellite operator shut down the bird for protection, but nobody got the memo. There's no mention of data outages on NSIDC's page or at CT or other ice product websites that I've found. Or, the sensor data might be so corrupt as to be unusable, or the sensor has been fried by the CME.
So, like before, I'll send NSIDC's Dr. Walt Meier a courtesy note on this one and see what he says. NSIDC's plot averages over 5 days, IIRC, so it won't show up for a few days and they have time to correct it if in fact it is the satellite sensor data again.
This may be a sensor issue, or it may be an algorithm issue. Since other plots aren't showing it, we know it doesn't represent a real loss of ice, just loss of data.
Curiously though, I've noted another glitch half a world away:
Source: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
Which looks to be unrelated, since it is the AMSR-E sensor on a different satellite.
Must be the day for glitches in sea ice.
Meanwhile, Row to the Pole's progress is slowing to a crawl:
Must be a sea ice glitch of a different kind.
Dr.Walt Meier of NSIDC responds:
This is quite clearly a data issue. We don't work with the F15 satellite
anymore – we've been using the sensor on the newer F17 satellite, so I
can't say if it is a a sensor problem or a processing issue at DMI. I
could be the CME, though it doesn't seem to have affected the F17
sensor. From the image, it looks to be a missing swath of data, perhaps
from CME, perhaps from some other issue. A missing swath is not
particularly unexpected. Sometimes the data can be recovered later and
added in, sometimes not. The AMSR-E issue in the Antarctic also appears
to be due to one or more missing swaths of data on Aug. 5:
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/s6250/2011/aug/asi-s6250-20110805-v5_nic.png
In our images, as you point out, we do a 5-day averaging to remove the
noise, often errors due to ephemeral weather effects, from the
timeseries. This avoids the day-to-day ups and downs that can be
misleading and provides a more representative overall trajectory (though
we do get occasional wiggles from the preliminary data used in the 5-day
data that is later replaced).
For the timeseries plot, we also interpolate over missing data (such as
a missing swath) using data for that region from the day before and
(when it becomes available) the day after. However, there doesn't appear
to be any missing swaths in our F17 data over the last several days.
Info on the sensor we use and the interpolation are explained on our
website here:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/disclaimer1.html
You're welcome to print the above, though if you do, I would appreciate
if you would also add the following links, where we addressed the sensor
issue and made corrections to the near-real-time data.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/18/nsidc-satellite-sea-ice-sensor-has-catastrophic-failure-data-faulty-for-the-last-45-days/
And also here, where I discussed some the issues dealing with
near-real-time data from satellite sensors:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/01/nsidcs-walt-meier-responds-on-the-sensor-issue/
These may be useful for new readers or to refresh other readers'
memories, such as some of the readers who posted in the comments section.
Walt Meier, Research Scientist
National Snow and Ice Data Center
UCB 449, Boulder, CO 80309
The extraordinary collapse of Jatropha as a biofuel
Worldwide CO2 emissions and the futility of any action in the West
August 7, 2011 12:54 pm
I can't resist … IT IS WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT 😉
Gareth Phillips
NSIDC also seem to be substituting puns for information, http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
sorry to her about the rowers, have they fallen out with each other and started rowing? or are they still paddling away?
SSam
Probably a large-scale thermonuclear release to try and get the data back in line with the model.
Antoninus
[Snip. Calling others "deniers" violates site Policy. ~dbs, mod.]
cirby
…or maybe they're using models with the same algorithm, and they both hit a modeling pothole at the same time…
I can't resist … we finally reached a tipping point!
We have heard from Dr. Meier for a while, it's about time you contacted him and let him point out all the molten ice.
As for RttP, their latest map shows a good jump. I haven't figured when each new dot gets added.
Their news feed http://www.rowtothepole.com/latest-news/ does show half a clue of what's coming up:
Well rested and ready to go, we had breakfast on Sheills Peninsular. This is right at the top of the Wellington Channel between Devon and Bathurst Islands. Ahead of us are the Penny Straits. This part of the journey has been haunting our thoughts. So far we have enjoyed relatively clear, ice-free seas along the coast of Devon Island. It is from here on end that the sea ice will start in earnest. Our ice-router back in the UK, Kim Partington, will guide us through the maze of sea-ice ahead with the latest satellite imagery on a daily basis, so heads up cox'n.
The dangers of this channel are twofold. There are immediate challenges in avoiding the sea ice damaging the boat and her rudder. Then there is the risk that the bays that we plan to use as bolt holes could be filled with ice, making them inaccessible. Or inescapable if the ice flows in overnight when we are anchored in one. Luckily the SE wind has pushed the ice off shore. We think there is a passageway for today and ice free bays. This will not last forever. On Tuesday the wind is expected to swing around to a northerly, compressing the ice back onto the shore. This is the most dangerous channel yet, but it is also a springboard for the next stage of the journey. Here a decision has to be made as to a) wait for the ice to clear to cross to Ellef Ringnes directly, or b) to skirt around to the NE jumping from island to island. Some tough choices will be faced in the days ahead.
They may have to plink a PB or two yet.
markinaustin
i saw that in the middle of the night and was curious as to what was happening.
Shevva
Does anyone know if any of them went to Eton?
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/08/bear-witness.html
AnonyMoose
Maybe a NASA data reception facility shut down due to glitches in Congress.
That's not all….I think the Borg got Baffin Island too!
This seems to be the glitch they got….
http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108061200_pal.jpg
Paul Deacon
Is there nobody in these organisations looking at the graphs they publish? It doesn't take a degree in rocket science to spot that there may be a problem.
TheTempestSpark
WOW, There was three recent coronal mass ejections that hit earth around this time.
the K Index chart for the 6th August shows a very high Geophysical hit for Earth from the recent CMEs Could this be a result of solar activity effecting the satellites?
http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/K%20Index%206%20Aug__540x403.jpg
If high solar activity shows up on satellite sensor plots as a lower Arctic sea ice extent then what would this mean?
Steptoe Fan
maybe the blast of solar radiation that hit the earth, first had it's way with some satellite hardware ?
alexjc38
Talking of Mark Serreze, his name came up in a very recent radio show featuring Greg Laden and John Abraham:
http://mnatheists.org/content/view/633/163/
John Abraham: "I've got the National Snow and Ice Data Center's ice data on my shortcuts or bookmarks recorded on my iPhone, and I check it periodically, and you can actually watch – you can go to their website, it's NSIDC – just search that and you'll get to the website – and you can follow the ice extent in the Arctic today. And you can compare it with past years. And there's a clear, clear and continuous decrease in Arctic ice. In fact, it's so severe that the director of NSIDC, Mark Serreze, said, quote, "Arctic ice is in a death spiral." Now for a scientist to use a phrase like "death spiral", especially reserved scientists, you know it's pretty serious."
Full transcript here:
https://sites.google.com/site/mytranscriptbox/home/20110731_mn
REPLY: Problem is, Serreze is hardly "reserved". More like "activist hippie". You should see some of the things he says in historychannel.com documentaries. – Anthony
Serreze will get a death spiral somehow — even if he has to redefine what the satellite sensor data is!……….;-)
isn't this convenient………………….
Paul Deacon says:
Sure there is. However, there are also automated systems that collect the data, generate the images and uploads the data.
You have a choice of
1) Not seeing the data until it's well vetted (and even then it may not be right).
2) Not seeing the data until someone has glanced at it during regular work hours, possibly minus sick days, vacations, and gov't shutdowns.
3) Seeing data nearly as soon as it's available, recognizing that's is not product quality and may be badly flawed.
4) Not seeing the data until it comes out on paper.
Personally, I'll go for 3).
Arrrhhhh….. never should have believed all you skeptics. R Gates is right.
Head for the hills…..
Berényi Péter
The Black Hole at the Pole has got too hot and just exploded, obviously.
R. Gates
James Allison says:
While the sea ice extent has indeed turned down pretty dramatically since Anthony posted his "turn to the right" article, we'd better hope this huge of a drop is some crazy sensor error (maybe related to the solar flare?), or indeed, things will be "worse than we thought."
As it is, some areas of high pressure and a nice little dipole settling in over the Arctic for an extended August visit. Expect a lot of export from the Fram and a lot of melting in place during this time. By the time the September low comes around, we'll end up with the least amount of sea ice on record by area and volume (or at least since the Holocene Climate Optimum!). With the warming still in the pipeline, we'll have a virtually ice free summer arctic by the time most of you are gumming your oatmeal at the retirement home.
rbateman
According to the Moscow Neutron Monitor ( http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm ) the Forbush event lasted almost an entire day, pausing for night. Might be worth the while to get some current hourly on the South Pole/Hemisphere.
philincalifornia
R. Gates constructed a strawman recently, complete with wacky example where skeptics, according to him, would still not believe that the data had gone beyond the null hypothesis if the climatic event in his example came to pass.
If this is not a glitch or a bribe, R. Gates, I'll concede here.
Ric Werme – I agree, but it would be nice to see a data blip of this kind recognised by its producers sometimes before it is spotted by its users.
Must be hard to row across ice. Would love to see some pics!
David McKeever
At least it is making my prediction for a record low look right.
GogogoStopSTOP
I used to be suspicious of this ice data. Now I don't believe it at all. It's the attitude of the people on the analysis end that disturbs me. 'Doesn't deserve to blog about(!)' What a inarticulate, unprofessional thing to say. From our "friends" in the government!
We used to have, what, almost 6,000 temperature collection points throughout the world? Now we have 1,200, 1,300? And all the one's that were dropped were in cooler places, all the one's kept were in predominately urban areas, airports, parking lots.
To paraphrase: 'First they came for the temperature data… then they came for the ice data.' What's next, the CO2 data, aerosol data… LOL!?
Seriously!!!
D. King
Tweaking AGC can cause a precipitous drop in signal level when the signal drops below detector amplification sensitivity.
Jer0me
@R Gates, what pipeline is this you are sure there is "warming" in? Where is this "warming"? Nobody can find it yet, and it has been a "travesty" that we cannot for a long while now. Are you sure it exists? Is it possibly just a convenient way to explain the lack of current warming, just as aerosols are being used for?
Lotsa questions. Few answers…..
Don't these data sites file minority reports?
Seems they are now climbing out of one hole just to fall into another.
KariK
I'm sort of wondering about how do they calibrate the satellites to real ice? I.e., have they had anybody actually go out there and check to make sure there is open water where the satellites say there should be? My doubts stem from the rather stark difference between the ice area given by Alaskan weather service and the AMSRE satellites — see links below. This difference has persisted for several years in the late summer period, and emails to both providers produced very emphatic assertions that their view of ice limit is the accurate one.
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php?img=fullice
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/arctic_AMSRE_nic.png
Steven Hoffer
everyone knows that these days all them old farts have their own set of removable snappers.
If you are suggesting that toothless retired people living in homes drives sea ice levels, I have a satellite to sell you.
ferd berple(@ferdberple)
"By the time the September low comes around, we'll end up with the least amount of sea ice on record by area and volume (or at least since the Holocene Climate Optimum!)."
Did we have satellites during the Climate Optimum? More likely the least amount recorded since we started worrying about warm weather. Prior to then the average person had enough common sense to recognize that except for a narrow band in the tropics, the earth is too cold for human survival without fire. There was actually a time when people dreamed of an ice free arctic and how it would revolutionize global trade and commerce. Now the mice that inhabit this planet can only see it as yet another thing to fear.
A new climate worry. Nuclear subs under the Arctic are responsible for melting 40,000,000,000 tonnes of arctic ice.
http://www.sciencefile.org/SciFile/forum/The-h-Bar/168449-Nuclear-power-plants-beneath-the-Arctic-ocean
Perhaps some of the mice are less timid than others?
Russia says high ice melt opens Arctic trade routes
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-high-ice-melt-opens-arctic-trade-214152102.html
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Arctic ice cover receded to near record lows this summer, opening elusive northern trade routes from Asia to the West, Russia's climate research agency said on Wednesday.
After the third hottest year on record since 1936 in the Arctic last year, ice cover has melted as much as 56 percent more than average across northern shipping routes, making navigation in the perilous waters "very easy," it said.
"Since the beginning of August icebreaker-free sailing is open on almost all the routes," the climate monitoring agency said on its website http://www.meteoinfo.ru.
It added that the mild conditions would last through September on shipping lanes that are tens of thousands of kilometers shorter than southern alternatives.
With retreating ice opening new strategic trade routes, Russia hopes to make Arctic passage a competitor to the Suez Canal, profiting from taxes and the lease of its unique nuclear icebreaker fleet to escort cargo ships along its Siberian coast.
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/2091224/arctic_sea_ice_may_be_melting_slower_than_thought/index.html?source=r_science
Arctic Sea Ice May Be Melting Slower Than Thought
"Our studies show that there have been large fluctuations in the amount of summer sea ice during the last 10,000 years," Svend Funder, team leader of the study, said in a press release.
"During the so-called Holocene Climate Optimum, from approximately 8000 to 5000 years ago, when the temperatures were somewhat warmer than today, there was significantly less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, probably less than 50% of the summer 2007 coverage, which was absolutely lowest on record."
Fred from Canuckistan
That looks just like an upside down Hockey Stick.
Does anyone know the whereabouts of Mikey Mann and does he have access to this data ?
Looks like a CME caused satellite problem.
As an aside, the Artic has been naturally near ice free prior to 20th century. I am sure no one got excited when that occurred. Hardly anyone noticed it.
We all better hope it is a glitch…
REPLY: You forgot to add, Best, D
timetochooseagain
Is it just me, or does it look like sensor "errors" are of only a particular sign? That is, underestimating extent. Can anyone give an example of a failed sensor producing erroneously high extent values at some point?
It's an honest question, since I really do have to wonder how this system works that could make it the case that "errors" are one sided. Perhaps in such cases the appropriate term would be "bias", as the technical definition of "error" usual refers to situations were the inaccuracies go up or down. A bias is inaccuracy in a particular direction.
Of course, sense these incidents seem to be a result of sensor defects, perhaps someone can figure out a way to engineer sensors less prone to failure? I assume someone is probably working on this.
Athelstan.
"With the warming still in the pipeline, we'll have a virtually ice free summer arctic by the time most of you are gumming your oatmeal at the retirement home."
Anthony, why are you allowing this 'toothless' post-normal student, to let fly with this sort of very cheap incivility?
tokyoboy
The Goracle has come true…… /sarc
Negative sign failure mode?
Oh how convenient….just turn the sensor off once in a while, and hope nobody notices.
But TWO sudden drops at opposite ends of the earth at the same exact time? Major anomalies, no less. What are the odds of that happening? This is a screaming example of let's see the raw data before it gets "adjusted".
Darryl B
It could be a manipulated sensor data Al Gore ithm !
ttca;
I think this is more along the lines of sensor failure, or dropout. CME victims.
Lol…right after you pointed out that sea ice extent had taken a left…uh…right turn. Are you sure it's not just another convenient "data adjustment"?
R. Gates says:
I am not aware of Putin claiming to be pumping hot crude under the Arctic Ice, so exactly when & where did this pipeline stuff come into being?
U Thorvaldson
Let's hope it's only a glitch in instrumentation, not the sign of a larger scale data alteration fraud scheme suddenly gone out of control…
It's either a CME blast that did it, or the Aliens abducted another sensor mistaking it for a lifeform.
I'll go with the CME.
timetochooseagain says:
It doesn't happen, underestimating is build in to the day to day….
……keep in mind, CryoSat-2 is only one year old, and just produced it's first data a few weeks ago.
CS-2 is tuned to Envasat, which is tuned to Jason 1 – 2, which are all tuned to the computer climate models when they deviate from what the computer climate models say they should say……
"The primary instruments aboard CryoSat-2 are SIRAL-2,[18] the SAR/Interferometric Radar Altimeters;[12] which uses radar to determine and monitor the spacecraft's altitude in order to measure the elevation of the ice."
"A careful analysis of satellite radar altimetry echoes can distinguish between those backscattered from the open ocean, new ice or multi-year ice. The difference between the elevation of the echoes from snow/sea ice and open water gives the elevation of the ice above the ocean; the ice thickness can computed from this.[4] The technique has a limited vertical resolution – perhaps 0.5m – …………….
……………………..and is easily confused by the presence of even small amounts of open water."
jorgekafkazar
Gareth Phillips says: "…sorry to her about the rowers, have they fallen out with each other and started rowing?…
Oar-able pun, simply oar-able, Gareth.
Athelstan. says:
I like reading Mr R Gates's comments. He appears to have extensive knowledge of the Arctic and short term weather patterns and so I appreciate his views. That his view happens to be from the other side of the climate fence should not be held against him. And the poking fun comments are part of what makes Anthony's site so good to visit.
steven mosher(@stevemosher)
GogogoStopSTOP says:
there are 77,000 stations in GHCN daily supplying a wide variety of parameters
Not all of these are temperature stations of course, but 10s of thousands are.
From the change log
Effective January 24, 2011, the number of GHCN-Daily stations will
increase by 325 to a total 76671 with the addition of new U.S. Cooperative
Observer and CoCoRaHS stations.
1. Data from approximately 17000 Australian stations will be added on
20 September 2010. These data, supplied by the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology, replace any previous data for Australian stations
and will be updated monthly. The new total number of stations in
GHCN Daily is 75239.
Recently I downloaded 7676 stations from Environment canada.
Dont mistake GHCN for all the data.
Here is the funny thing. If you look at global coverage from UHA or RSS you see the whole planet and you can look at the trend since 1979. Now, pick 200 surface stations at random from around the world.
Pick stations not at airports, pick stations at rural locations. calculate the average. Guess what?
It's substantially the same as UHA or RSS and CRU and GISS.
Tom in Florida
R Gates is to be ignored. He likes to come here with nothing but Gatesisms and to poke around with barbs and needles. After a while you just don't read what he types.
Quality — It's job # 832! We'll get to it eventually. Maybe
Steve Mosher said:
Hmm. Why would anyone think near surface temperatures should match satellite?
Just The Facts(@justthefactswuwt)
TheTempestSpark says: August 7, 2011 at 1:25 pm
The magnetosphere has been buffeted over the last couple days, the action starts 32 seconds in:
Shanghai Dan
Fred in Canuckistan wrote:
Only if you're in the Northern hemisphere… 😉
In their response to my question about the differences between their ice estimates and those based on radar data, the Alaskan weather service said they based their analysis on satellite pictures. Could somebody who has access to the data (Anthony?) compare radar-based ice estimates with pictures?
trend matches. The absolute numbers are of course different.
Look at it this way. If you saw the air above the surface (2m) trend up by 1C per decade, what would you expect for LTL? more trend? less trend? or about the same?
Now if the surface measurements were wildly corrupted and you saw 2C at the surface and 1C aloft, then you'd have a nice clue that measurements at the surface were biased.
But that's not what we see. We see a trend at the surface and we see substantially the same trend aloft. That similarity gives us some measure of confidence that the surface measurements, on the whole, are substantially correct. Or you can look at it this way. There are now 5000 canadian stations sitting on my computer. WAYYY more than GHCN has for canada.
When I calculate the average for canada using 5000 stations do you think it will be
1. Higher than GHCN
2. Lower than GHCN
3. About the same.
Werner Brozek
But did you mean "high" values or values that do NOT support CAGW?
See the following:
http://boballab.wordpress.com/2010/08/12/lake-michigan-temp-july-4th-2010-489-2f/
"Lake Michigan Temp July 4th 2010: 489.2°F ?"
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Steve Mosher,
Aside from the missing "hot spot" debate, shouldn't the satellite data show more warming than the near surface during the same period due to moist convection amplifying the warming with height? It seems like basic physics to me.
I'm just sayin'
Hey Mr. Gates, what was 15% ice extent on this date in1956, 1935 or 1750?
Terry Jackson
Anthony says "REPLY: Problem is, Serreze is hardly "reserved". More like "activist hippie". You should see some of the things he says in historychannel.com documentaries. – Anthony"
Wow, for a guy living in the Peoples Republic of Chico that is some kind of funny. Just imagine how far out Dr S has to be when you are surrounded daily with aging activist hippies that comprise 'normal' in the neighborhood.
Amino Acids in Meteorites
Look, sometimes Viagra fails.
(62 comments and no one had cracked a joke like that? It was just sitting there, waiting)
August 4, 2011, 9.3 CME
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvXqL7RmcN0
Steven Hoffer says:
Currently CO2 is more of a driver of climate change than methane.
Don't know from whence you come to cast your barbs in my direction, but I suspect I may not like you very much.
You can be 99.9% certain it was more than it is on this date…especially as the NE and NW passages are virtually once more open, and they certainly were not on any of those dates.
Thank you James…perhaps its my Norwegian and Swedish heritage. I know enough about the Arctic to absolutely bore most my friends to death with it, so I've agreed to not talk about it anymore around them. WUWT and other sites help me keep my promise and give me an outlet. I've got the Humboldt Glacier (the widest tidewater glacier in the world by the way, and yes, it's losing mass) as a background on my computer…what a nerd!
savethesharks
By the time the September low comes around, we'll end up with the least amount of sea ice on record by area and volume (or at least since the Holocene Climate Optimum!). With the warming still in the pipeline, we'll have a virtually ice free summer arctic by the time most of you are gumming your oatmeal at the retirement home.
Only in your make-believe cartoon, milk-toast, smooth-handed, never-swung-a-hammer-before cyber world, GATES!
You can not prove or even BEGIN to predict ANY of the above….right down from the oatmeal (where will you be???) to the "least amount of sea ice on record".
PROVE IT!
Arwww…I thought so. You can't prove anything.
Time to press the REJECT button.
Next?????
Norfolk, VA, USA
Willis Eschenbach(@weschenbach)
First, kudos to Walt Meier for his willingness to discuss the issues. Next,
Fallacy of the excluded middle. You left out
5) Someone at NSIDC actually takes a quick glance at the data, and finds the error before Anthony does. How much time did it take you to spot the problem, Ric? One second? Two? You seem to think that taking two seconds to glance at a chart is somehow impossible during regular working hours … but since that's what we're paying them for, why can't they do it? Most everyone on the planet finishes their jobs during their work hours, and I doubt greatly that the NSIDC folks are that overworked. Take a few minutes off from issuing alarmist predictions and actually look at the data … is that too much to ask?
6) Someone writes a bozo simple computer program that checks the data to see if it's gone off the rails, and if so, it holds the data release up until someone can look at it when they get back. Duh …
Personally, I'll go for 6). The code needed is trivially simple, and if NSIDC were a business they'd have done it the first time Anthony found an error. Businesses have to correct their errors or they go out of business. NSIDC just repeats their errors, as there is no penalty for mistakes. So no, 3) is not acceptable.
Werner Brozek-I was referring to sea ice, so your comment is kinda not remotely relevant! It's okay though. Wow, now that's a high temperature! Perhaps it was a fluke and they were meaning to report in the Rankine scale 😉 Oh wait, then it would be below freezing which doesn't make sense either. Hm…
steven mosher-"Look at it this way. If you saw the air above the surface (2m) trend up by 1C per decade, what would you expect for LTL? more trend? less trend? or about the same?"
I think it is reasonable a priori to expect that the lower troposphere should have a trend of the same sign. Quantitatively what one expects has to be determined either through some kind of "physics model" as you like to call them, or some kind of comparison of how the series relate to one another in ways independent of their long term trend, making the (seemingly reasonable assumption) that the same physics that applies to the fluctuations should apply to the long term trends. From the former approach, we get the answer that the "amplification" of TLT relative to the surface should be a factor of about 1.2, while from the latter, I get substantial the same answer:
http://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/relating_lower_tropospheric_temperature_variations_to_the_surfac/
In other words, yes, it looks like there should be more warming aloft than at the surface. Funny thing is, the trends are "about the same" (and actually, for UAH at least, a little less). So when you say:
"That similarity gives us some measure of confidence that the surface measurements, on the whole, are substantially correct."
You are, in fact, incorrect. While not as troubling as a complete lack of trend in the TLT data would be, the fact that the trend is not greater, means that the satellite data does not give anyone who actually understands these data additional confidence that the surface data are "substantially correct." Note I am being generous: I am not saying that the TLT trend being only about the same as the surface raises questions about the accuracy of the surface data, only saying that they do not eliminate or lessen concerns about the surface data. The satellites are not confirmatory evidence of the surface data in any meaningful sense.
Something wrong with my understanding here. (as usual 🙂 ) During an ice age the Arctic Ocean must be free of ice so as to provide sufficient water vapour to allow the snow accumulation to build up towards New York.
Of course, thats why, if you read my words when I talk about the trend, I say it should be roughly similar. But If you want to talk about Santer et al we can. And further, remember, we are talking about the trend. So, if the surface warms by .45C over 40 years, what is your expectation for warming aloft?
Thanks, R. Gates. Could you please cite your sources for the claim that the NE and NW passages were not "virtually open" in 1750?
Also, what does "virtually open" mean? Because to me it means that the passages are open in a virtual world, say a climate model. For you it clearly means something else, but what? Perhaps you mean that satellite images show an opening for at least one day or something like that … but if so, how can you compare that satellite data to pre-satellite years?
Finally, could you list for us the number of vessels that made the NorthWest Passage this year? I can't find any indication that anyone made the passage (or is even trying) this year, and as of August 7th the NWP was not open … and (as far as I know), zero passages this year is the same number of boats that made the passage in 1935, 1956, and 1750. If the NWP is "virtually open" now, so far it's only virtual boats that have made it this year.
I also note that Amundsen made the first traversal of the NW Passage in 1902, when the world was colder than now. I note that the Coast Guard Cutter Storis made the passage in 1957 … was the NWP "virtually more open" or "virtually less open" in 1957 than it is now? Victory Adventure Cruises (perhaps buoyed by your optimism) was taking reservations for their NWP trip … which was supposed to complete the passage by the 30th of this month. Near as I can tell, it never even started the trip, I can find no further mention of the voyage.
So is that what you meant by "virtually open"? It's kinda sorta open, but only virtual boats can make the passage?
the_Butcher
Didn't I tell you they forgot to "adjust" it?
Pete H
Oh goodness! Quick, someone call Prof. Flannery and tell him to sell his two waterfront houses NOW! \sarc
Don't Hide the Decline………Never!!
Kelvin Vaughan
It's back up again now. Looks like it's the sun!
I have to disagree. I almost never agree with R Gates, but you have to admit he (/she/it) is always very civil, despite the great many taunts thrown in his direction.
I appreciated Walt Meier's response. We should all behave likewise and, as at Anthony's request, 'Keep it nice'.
Dr Walt Meier,
Thank you for your communication.
Anthony, thanks for asking him & your WUWT site to see and discuss it all.
A. C. Osborn
Make a note in your diaries everybody. R Gates has finally made a verifiable prediction on Arctic Sea Ice.
No mention of "Extent" though.
HenryP
CNN reported record lows in ice on the arctic in July.
Is this not true?
Exactly how far back do those records go? Do we have sea ice records (for both area and volume) for the Holocene Climate Optimum but not the Roman Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climate Optimum?
And where exactly, is the warming still in the pipeline?
it is still cold here/
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/winters-are-getting-colder-in-pretoria-bring-back-the-global-warming-please
Pamela Gray
I do not consider R. Gates to be knowledgable to the point of being boring. He is an armchair scientist somewhat like many of us here. However, I consider him to be not as versed in the scientific method as most of us are here. To wit: his assurance that there is warming in the pipeline. He speaks of it as if it were the null hypothesis. Anyone putting out peer reviewed papers says no such thing. Until it is found, it is decidedly not the null hypothesis. Given that gaping hole in R. Gates' understanding (among many such holes) of current research, his hubris is either feigned and meant to rile feathers at best, or is his own over-estimate of his knowledge at worst.
Dermot O'Logical
Looks like there's a corresponding instrumentation spike in the SORCE TSI measurements, courtesy of Leif's solar page, with TSI dropping a full 1 watt in the space of a few days.
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
agreed R.Gates is hopeless (as witnessed on other threads).
he does not want to step off his high horse
he should read and try to understand
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/what-was-that-what-henry-said
I'm still trying to find out if the wrong sensor caused inaccurate reports by CNN?
A. C. Osborn says:
Volume is the killer. You can see how it takes year after year of battering away and multi year ice to finally get to a point where a huge portion of the basin is at concentrations of less than 80%. and its only august. , losing all this volume looks like a turning point.
Willis says:
Also, what does "virtually open" mean? Because to me it means that the passages are open in a virtual world, say a climate model. For you it clearly means something else, but what?
Willis, this term "virtually" ice free, when referring to anything related to ice coverage in the Arctic has a very specific meaning, which has nothing to do with imaginary, but rather can be translated as "for all intents and purposes". But I suspect a very smart man such as yourself knows this, and is simply trying to make some obtuse point. When an area is "virtually" ice free is doesn't mean that every bit of ice is clear from any area, but rather that the area, when looked at in total, has more open water than ice. In the coming years and decades, you can expect to hear this term a lot in the NH summer. When looking at the Arctic as a whole, for quite some time there may be areas such as along the Northern tip of Greenland or along the Northern Canadian Archipelago where some thicker older ice may cling throughout the year. In such cases we may see the Arctic sea ice area fall to less than 1 million sq. km., and it would be "virtually" ice free and quite navigable. Right now, MODIS shows that, while there is some broken ice in the area and clouds block a completely clear view, you could navigate both the NW and NW passages (i.e. there are no large chucks of thick multiyear ice blocking your passage):
NW passage: http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2011-08-07/7-N77.069199-W112.186825/Canada-Inuvik
NW passage: http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2011-08-07/7-N75.183286-E146.895908/Russia-Sakha-Republic
The NE passage has been declared "officially open" by the Russian's:
http://gcaptain.com/arctic-melt-record-northwest-passage?28769
And I suspect, I may be a bit ahead of the "official" announcement, the NW passage will be declared "officially" open as well in the next week to 10 days, as the clouds and slushy ice will delay the official announcement for a bit…
To your question regarding how I "know" these were not open in say, the 1700's. Well, I must trust those who've studied this a bit and documented the logs from ships as well as other scientific proxy research that strongly indicates that the open of the NW and NE passages is something that hasn't occurred in at least a thousand years:
http://hal.univ-brest.fr/docs/00/48/20/53/PDF/Masse_Resume.pdf
BTW, this second study seems to hint that clearly the NE and NW passages were not open in 1750, but perhaps during the MWP, the NE and NW passages might well have been open, which should bring some delight to a few readers here on WUWT.
Nuke says:
1) We got 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere than at anytime in the past 800,000 years (and probably longer and it's growing every year. This represents a continued forcing on the climate, despite pronouncements by skeptics otherwise.
2) Just in terms of ocean heat content, which has risen in the past few decades (and yes, it's leveled off recently, but it hasn't subsided). The bulk of the heat (and CO2) from anthropogenic sources has gone into the oceans. If the ocean heat content had fallen over the past few decades as atmospheric temperatures have risen, we be hard pressed to say there is still heat "in the pipeline"
Taken together, the continued elevated CO2 levels and clear long-term trend in ocean heat content, means there's more warmth ahead in the long-term, with steady upward trend in global temps for the next century when looked at on a decade by decade average, as the yearly temps can wiggle up or down from ENSO, volcanoes, solar cycles, etc. CO2 is a stronger long-term forcing than these…and thank god it is.
Do we have "catastrophic" amounts of heat already in the "pipeline". That's the question, really, isn't it?
steven mosher says:
"Volume is the killer"
R Gates, your pronouncements boggle the mind. And it appears, negates your 75%/25% (or there abouts) wriggle room you used to give yourself. May I say that virtually, you have drunk the koolaid and have laid down to await the end of the world.
REPLY: Exit question for R. Gates. Are you one of Al Gore's trained presenters? – Anthony
R.Gates says:
We got 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere than at anytime in the past 800,000 years (and probably longer and it's growing every year. This represents a continued forcing on the climate, despite pronouncements by skeptics otherwise.
Henry@R.Gates (again)
1) the exact amount (of the increase in CO2) is 0.01%, namely from 0.03% (280 ppm's) in 1960 to 0.04% (390 ppm)now. http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok
2) the tables (with verifyable results from weather stations from all over the world) show that the warming of the last 4 decades is due to natural causes and not by an increase in GHG's
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
3) It is getting cooler now, especially if you start looking at weather stations from 2005 onwards
4) Global cooling is coming. Better be prepared for that. Follow this graph. It shows we should soon be back to where we were in the 70's……
http:/wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/global-cooling-is-coming
Adam Gallon
Interesting & pertinant post over at Mr Goddard's place!
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/1947-temperatures-in-the-arctic-have-increased-by-10-degrees-fahrenheit-since-1900/
there was a fw slash missing
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
SteveSadlov
Clearly an issue with the data.
I think you forgot to answer this question, which was really the salient question:
I'm sure that was just an oversight on your part.
Does anyone know what the official word is on the "dead sector"?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png
HenryP says:
1) the exact amount (of the increase in CO2) is 0.01%, namely from 0.03% (280 ppm's) in 1960 to 0.04% (390 ppm)now.
Sorry Henry, but the figure is 40%…from 280 ppm to 390 ppm is a 40% increase in the total amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. No matter how you want to try and rework the numbers or use some odd metric, the truth is that by abosolute total tonnage or the total number of molecules, each with it's own little greenhouse properties is 40%. Until you agree this is the true state of affairs, you and I cannot agree on anything else and there's very little reason for continued discourse. Good day sir…
? "Exit question"? Are you kicking me off of WUWT?
But to answer the question: No, and hell no.
REPLY: No, "exit question" to the point made, could have just said "post script" – Anthony
Thanks to Walt for the update, and to Anthony for posting it.
…just to let you know we do watch!!
waltmeier
John B.:
That is a missing swath of data. As I mentioned in my comment that Anthony posted, these happen from time to time, either due to errors, processing issues (sometimes all the data doesn't get downloaded from the satellite for some reason), or satellite operations (sometimes they have do an orbit manuever, load software updates, etc. and they don't collect data at those times).
For our timeseries plot, we interpolate so that we don't get sudden drops in the timeseries line.
Walt Meier
Henry@R.Gates
How much radiative warming and how much radiative cooling is caused by the increase of 0.01% of the CO2, exactly?
And how much cooling is caused by the CO2 by taking part in the life cycle? – I hope you do know that plants and trees need warmth and CO2 to grow?
(don't even bother to reply unless you have the exact figures + the details of how the experiments were done)
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok
Kev-in-Uk
I'm still trying to find out if it was the wrong sensor or the inaccurate data reporting that caused inaccurate reports by CNN? Or was the CNN report correct?
I think there is a lot of information in Dutch history that suggests that the sea farers in the 15th and 16th century knew or were led to believe from "their ancient history" that there was a northern passage (to the other side of the world) . Many, like Barentzen (the most famous) lost their lives trying to find that northern passage.
Sorry, history is not my greatest subject.
that Dutch explorer's name was Barents
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/53182/Willem-Barents
they named the Barents Sea after him.
When you accept that the increase has been 40% "of the CO2", maybe you will deserve some sort of answer.
@waltmeier,
John B and R Gates,
You're both quibbling. I don't have a dog in this particular fight, but Henry P clearly explained how he arrived at his .01 figure, and it's as legitimate as the 40% number.
I understand why the 40% number is used: it sounds scarier. Even though the evidence [or lack thereof] indicates that more CO2 isn't a problem. Same with quoting the amount of CO2 in billions of tons — it's much more scary sounding than saying that CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by ≈0.01%. Alarmists rely on spin because they lack evidence of global harm from CO2.
Likewise, showing only the Arctic sea ice concentration is more alarming than showing the Antarctic, which isn't scary at all:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_daily_concentration_hires.png
Smokey,
If I were to buy a pint of beer at 3% alcohol, and another at 6% alcohol, that's twice as strong, in anyone's book. It's not "3% stronger", it's twice as strong. If you don't believe me, have a couple of them and argue it out with the traffic cop!
It's not about being scary, it's about being accurate.
And the Antarctic is a whole different story, as well you know.
A big if that there is more CO2 than anytime during the past 800,000 years. With temperatures at times being much higher than now, therefore you don't have to worry about it then as it has made virtually no difference. If it had made the difference during these past many thousands of years, we would be a few degrees higher now if it was only CO2 that counted. This simply proves that the higher CO2 levels now have made no noticeable difference over this time scale or it would now be the warmest over the past 800,000 years too.
well the physics doesnt care about the percentage. The physics cares about the parts per million. The outgoing long wave radiation cares nothing for the percentage. So the percentage doesnt matter. What you can do to get a first order estimate is plug your begining ppm and your ending ppm into a simple log equation. That will give you the first order effect, about 1-1.2 C per doubling.
so if you go from 100 to 200, that's a doubling. And, if you believe that feedbacks are unknown ( could be positive, could be negative) then your best estimate would be about 1-1.2C per doubling. That's just basic engineering. if you want to understand feedbacks, well then, that more uncertain . But if you want an estimate thats based only on well worn physics and engineering.. 1-1.2C
Gary Mount
I will assume that "the increase of 0.01%" is the total increase of GHG as water vapour makes up about 95% of the effect, and all other GHG's, including CO2 make up the rest. So even doubling CO2, has only a small effect.
John B. what a silly comparison. Your beer experiment isn't even close to atmospheric CO2 and is laughable. Try again.
So what was the problem? Was the sensor bad, did the sun somehow mess with data transmission, what?
Pamela Gray says:
Yep, linear, logarithmic – who cares. They both start with an"l", right ?
What you can do to get a first order estimate is plug your begining ppm and your ending ppm into a simple log equation. That will give you the first order effect, about 1-1.2 C per doubling.
so if you go from 100 to 200, that's a doubling. And, if you believe that feedbacks are unknown ( could be positive, could be negative) then your best estimate would be about 1-1.2C per doubling.
Steve, if this is not asking too much, could you point me to the very best reference, or references (non-paywalled) that give the number of 1 – 1.2C per doubling, preferably with high humidity in the tropics clearly taken into account.
I'm not doubting that this is the calculated number, just want to stay current on how it is derived.
Stefan Mitich
A nuclear ice crusher Russian ship is taking tourist to North Poll every second week. Because the whole mass of ice moves clockwise = after 2 weeks, they can't use same corridor. Therefore they slice another… and another… Those slices float south and melt = much less ice left. Plus, when sliced, ruff water brakes much more. But that is good for the Warmist. They know that: ice is white – reflects the sunlight – minus white ice, hopefully a small GLOBAL warming; to get them out of trouble…?!
What they don't know is: water has mirror affect reflection also. 2] for 6 months in a year, there is no sunlight to reflect. 3] white ice is full of air, makes the ice perfect insulator. 4] minus ice; during the winter the water absorbs much more coldness. 5] with that extra absorbed coldness + the normal winter coldness; with double strength radiates south and intercepts the moisture = drops double amount of snow in Europe /USA = no moisture left for replenishing the ice on arctic ocean = domino affect. 6] that ice seats on salty seawater and constantly melts from below – needs replenishing every winter.
That was giving the big surprises to the shonky experts for the last 3 northern winters. The morons were expecting warmer, because of less ice – instead everything is opposite than their mythology /predictions. It means: the chain reaction was already triggered by those ice crusher ships; to take the shonky climatologist / bias media and other spectators further north. Less ice means colder northern winter. Because is colder there – the air shrink extra – to avoid vacuum – from the southern hemisphere lots of air goes north = on the southern hemisphere simultaneously record hot days. To learn how the climate function and much more http://www.stefanmitich.com.au
Back on July 28, 2011, I quipped
"I previously predicted "the arctic ice mass minimum will be more than enough to make a proper gin and tonic….. ". There was! And the G & T was delicious! I just wanted to warn you all – I'm going back for more ice…. and I'm quite thirsty! "
Bloody hell! I must have been thirstier that I thought!!!! I promise I will NOT go back for any more ice! I'm sorry – truly! It won't happen again…..
John B says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/07/arctic-death-spiral-or-dead-sensor/#comment-714700
1) you cannot work in ppm's because you have to put the increase in Co2 in context (i.e. next to)with the gases that also absorb at between 14 and 15 um which is mainly water vapor and oxygen. Nobody knows exactly how much water vapor is floating around in the atmosphere, it could be anything between 0.5 and 1.2%. We are not talking about clouds here. That is still separate. Oxygen also absorbs (very weak) at 14-15 but its % is very high, almost 21%. It appears to me man is adding a lot more water vapor in the air than CO2.
So the 0.01% increase in CO2 is very little compared to H2O and O2 and we don't know if it is even a GHG, i.e. that the net effect of an increase in the CO2 is warming rather than cooling.
2) As to the answers of my questions that you think I do not deserve: There are no answers. Nobody tested it….Tyndall and Svante A made big mistakes which they could not have foreseen because they could not look at the whole spectrum of the molecule. What the IPCC did, is look at the problem from the wrong end. They assumed that global warming is caused by an increase in CO2 (even though not everybody agreed with this at the time) and made an allocation (forcing) largely based on the observed global warming since 1750 versus the increase of the gas noted since 1750. None of the IPCC "profs" ever seem to have realised that CO2 also causes cooling…..it appears that this was simply forgotten or ignored. ….
It is the worst mistake a scientist can make.
so if you go from 100 to 200, that's a doubling
Henry@steven
Steven, when I ask for test results I mean test results.
I am not interested in the "calculations".
You have to come to me with the experiment's method and an answer like:
radiative warming: W/m2/M3/0.01% CO2/24 hours
radiative cooling: W/m2/M3/0.01%/24 hours
biological cooling (due to the increase in greenery and forestry) : W/m2/M3/0.01%
If we have these 3 results, then we can actually determine what the net effect of the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.
As it stands, the science on the CO2 has not gone much further then when I finished here:
I suggest you study that and let me know if there is something that you don't understand.
Sorry you didn't like my analogy. If not, try Stephen Mosher's explanation. Either way, there has been a 40% rise in CO2 and a doubling is estimated to cause a 1-1.2C rise in temperature (pretty uncontroversial), or 1.5 – 4.5 with feedbacks (more arguably).
and a doubling is estimated to cause a 1-1.2C rise in temperature (pretty uncontroversial),
If the sun is directly behind a satellite looking from a receiving dish, the sun will swamp any signal coming from the satellite. My guess is that the signal was lost in reflected solar noise.
Or it could have been a spurious transmission from earth. At the satellite station where I worked one of our transponders was put out of service by an Italian station carrying out test transmissions on the wrong polarity.
M.A.DeLuca II
The graph apparently was in error. As of this morning, it's showing no such drop:
MADeLuca2 says
You forgot to give the link?
Does this mean that CNN reported on wrong figures for the July ice?
Yep, I included it as an image tag and seem to have mucked that up. The source is the one shown at the top of the page under the graph with the defective reading. Here it is again: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
Svend Ferdinandsen
DMI has corrected it now, so it was some sort of error.
Looks like it now has a small spike instead.
Mistaken identity old luv.
@HenryP
You can't just go making up your own science.
Trust me, you are not Gallileo 🙂
Sorry John, maybe you are still stuck in Galileo's days and the science of their time,
Trust me, more than Galileo was here
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation
Try following my arguments on the principles and let me know if there is anything that you don't understand.
Henry,
The important thing about Gallileo was not that he was persecuted, it was that he turned out to be right. If you turn out to be right, meaning that all of mainstream radiative physics is wrong, enjoy the Nobel prize that will inevitably come your way. On the other hand…
Henry@JohnB
I know there are a few of us who have figured it all out.
I remember thinking about it during a few sleepless nights.
I am actually not aware of saying something new but if you think it is new and if it is true (which you can easily check) then perhaps, indeed, it should be getting more attention…
But it is not worth a Nobel prize.
The images continue to show large satellite swaths missing. That means that graphs are missing data and are relying on fill ins from other grids. Any update?
@Walt Meier
Any news, Walt?
(Arctic) East Coast Sea Ice so far Similar to Last Year
Arctic Ocean Warming Began Already In Early 20th Century, Meaning Natural Factors Strongly At Play, Not CO2
Educational video about Arctic sea ice to bookmark: excellent for adults and children
Mediterranean Weather In The Arctic


I'm going to start this blog with a warning: don't go to a wine tasting on a Wednesday night unless you have incredible will power or a very understanding boss!
As I was moseying through Norwich last week, I was pleasantly surprised to see a message from No. 79 appear on Twitter, inviting me to an intimate wine-tasting session on Wednesday night. Having previously had a splendid night there, how could I possibly say no?
Starting at 6.30, I had the quickest change imaginable after work, before heading out to meet my bestie at No.79 for an informative evening of deliciousness. Thankfully I live within walking distance, so transport wasn't an issue!
We were greeted at the entrance by the lovely Jasper, who showed us to our table and explained the order of proceedings for the night: a pre-dinner tasting, sampling wines from France, Italy and Spain, followed by a three-course meal with specially paired wines.
It was all very relaxed and unpretentious, I must say. Having been to a handful of wine-tasting sessions over the years, they have been easygoing affairs. No one expects you to have Jilly Goulden's tastebuds and the experts are always happy to answer questions and give advice a and it was no different at No.79. There were around 20 of us in attendance and we all got talking about what we liked, what we didn't and had a bit of a giggle. It was a very friendly affair.
Our first stop was at the French wines table, where were looked after by the lovely Jerome of Bijou Bottles.
He had four to sample: two red and two white. My favourite of the whole evening was the Inzolia, a bright, unoaked chardonnay, which was astonishing considering I don't like Chardonnay! It was light, refreshing and citrusy – I could just imagine sitting in the south of France, sipping it in the balmy evening heat.
Jerome was happy to talk about good wine vs bad, organic vs GM wines and expensive vs cheap wines, explaining thing in a way that a novice like me could understand. I really felt like I learned a lot!
Jasper manned the Italian table, again with two red and two white. I tend to be a lover of all thing Italian and really enjoyed the rich, berry flavoured Montepulciano, which had a hint of spice on the after taste.
I'm going to admit that it was around this point that I realised I was slightly sloshed. By the time I got to Spain, I'd sampled eight glasses of wine on an empty stomach. And in spite of pouring away a huge amount of wine, things started to get a little hazy.
The fascinating thing I found out at the Spanish table was that there is a huge difference between the a Temperanillo Reserva and Crianza. The Crianza is probably the nicest red I tried all night; it had a smoky aroma, berry flavours and a honey after taste. I fell a little in love with it!
The starter was an incredibly rich and creamy fondue accompanied by garlicky delicious croutons, which perfectly complimented the cheese. I will confess that I might have dipped my finger in it when I ran out of bread. I couldn't help it – it was so moreish!
This was followed by a charcuterie board with venison carpaccio, goats cheese, pickled walnuts, chicken ballotine and herb croquettes. While it was all flavoursome, the venison carpaccio was incredible; it was melt-in-the-mouth, sweet, salty and slightly citrus, all at once. I would love to know where No.79 get that from.
Needless to say, we were feeling quite full – and yet somehow we managed to fit in a pear frangipani accompanied by a pear cognac. The light sponge and the silken fruit were the ideal pairing for the sweet, smooth, fruity spirit, which again proved my preconceptions wrong. I thought that all brandy was vile, but then I fell a little bit in love with pear cognac. I'm going to have to contact Jerome to find out when I can get a bottle.
By the time we had finished eating and said our good nights, it was around 10.30 and we were all tiddly, tired but thoroughly sated. And at £30 a head, I think we could all agree it was excellent value for money. I'm certainly going to be on the lookout for another wine tasting at No.79 – just don't tell my boss!
To find out more about the events taking place at No.79, visit them on Facebook.
Full disclosure: I was invited to the event free of charge by No.79.


text:
Uti Possidetis, Ethnic Composition and Equity in 1921 Latvian-Lithuanian Border Arbitration
May 5, 2021 Rytis Satkauskas Leave a comment
During their very first years of statehood, modern Latvia and Lithuania confronted the urgent need to determine the borderline between their territories. The way they resolved this issue through the recourse to international justice by arbitration formed a remarkable example of peaceful settlement of disputes. The award of the arbitration commission delivered one hundred years ago on 20 March 1921, contributed itself to the formation of the international rules on the delimitation of State boundaries.
This article explores the application of uti possidetis, defined as a principle of customary international law that serves to preserve the pre-existing boundaries of territories emerging as States, in the border dispute between Latvia and Lithuania, and the lessons learned after a century of that arbitration.
The dispute
The settlement of World War I at the Paris Peace Conference gave birth to nine new nations. Before the Conference opened in January 1919, the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires had collapsed. Within these territories arose the States of Czechoslovakia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Yugoslavia. The Treaty of Versailles created the conditions to establish new states. However, the major powers chose not to address the territorial limits between those states (with a few exceptions). These remained to be defined by the new nations themselves. Here, the basic choice was between the principle of territorial stability, i.e. application of the principle of uti possidetis, and the identification of the historical and ethnic limits of the new nation-states.
At that time the borderline between Latvia and Lithuania was rather uncertain. In 1819, the Lithuanian town Palanga with the entire coastline down to the Prussian border was added to Kurland gubernia. In many other places, the line between Czarist gubernias failed to represent the ethnic composition of the population. On the contrary, independence was established "within ethnic boundaries" with reference to the exercise of the right to self-determination.
In 1919 the delegations agreed during bilateral consultations in Paris that the administrative border of Kurland and Kovno gubernias could be taken as the State border, provided that the Baltic coast up to Šventoji River would be given to Lithuania. Unfortunately, this compromise was not approved by the capitals. Both parties backed their claims by reference to the ethnic composition of the population in the disputed areas. Moreover, economic factors also informed the positions of the two governments maintain their positions. Lithuania acknowledged the importance of its rights to the Palanga coast as its only access to the Baltic Sea. Access to the Daugava River through the Kalkuone railway line could also serve Lithuania's economic interests. In turn, Latvians demanded Mažeikiai to ensure rail traffic from Liepaja port (Z. Butkus, 1993).
The situation was complicated by the fact that in fighting their enemies' military forces from one state appeared to control substantive parts of the other state's territory. Failing bilateral consultations then, it became obvious by autumn 1920 that the two governments were unable to find a diplomatic solution to the frontier dispute by means of negotiation. The situation became dangerous as armed clashes were reported between the troops alongside the provisional control line. The bilateral arbitration convention was signed in Riga on 28 September 1920 (Societé des Nations. Récueil des Traités, vol. 2 (1920–1921), p. 234). Contrary to a request for mediation or good offices, the compromis specified that the decisions of the arbitration commission shall be legally binding and "loyally accepted by both Governments" (Article 2). The parties also established several specific parameters for the decision: to take into account ethnographic and historical principles and the state-political interests of each party (military, strategical, economic and communicational) and the interests of the local population. This provision, in turn, repeated the preceding arbitration agreement between Latvia and Estonia.
Uti Possidetis line
Only an existing territorial unit, defined well enough, may claim independence; after all, it is a territorial group and not an ethnonational group that may be asked of its opinion through a plebiscite. The territorial solution of the principle of self-determination has been found in the general principle of international law of uti possidetis.
At the time of the dispute in question, the principle of uti possidetis was generally accepted as a binding international norm with regard to Latin America. The rule appeared in many constitutions of the American continent and in many inter-American treaties.
It may be argued, though, that this principle only applies to international boundaries, which, after all, are accepted as lines dividing sovereign entities with all that that implies. Internal boundaries are clearly not so established. The peoples of Latvia and Lithuania had no influence in drawing the line between the two Czarist gubernias which failed to correspond, in many places, to the historical and ethnical boundary between the two nations, as well as their economic needs. However, at the time of the accession to independence both countries were in favour of accepting the existing line with necessary adjustments.
Even though the existing territorial line of 1914 was not explicitly mentioned in the arbitration agreement, it appears clear from the minutes of the meetings and the award of the commission of 20 March 1921 that the administrative line between the Russian Kurland and Kovno gubernias was taken as a starting point for the delimitation of the Latvian and Lithuanian border. It is difficult to imagine, both from a practical and legal point of view, that a borderline between two States may be drawn without reference to any pre-existing boundary of whatever provenance. In our case, the two Republics actually controlled the territories of the respective gubernias, and their local authorities generally remained under continued subordination of the capitals, thus maintaining the territorial status quo. Denying this factual situation could have led to destabilization in the border areas and might have triggered the use of force from both sides.
Whether the former administrative boundary was accepted by practical reasons or as a legal principle of uti possidetis remains uncertain. Neither the correspondence nor the minutes or the ruling of the arbitrators mentions this principle. However, both delegations were asking for the adjustment of the old line, and the ruling mentions the portions of the land to be transferred as compared to the status quo: 29,999 hectares went to Latvia and 20,873 hectares to Lithuania.
It is important to mention that the arbitration commission gave no relevance to the fact of the presence of the armed forces beyond the former administrative line. Uti possidetis juris was thus preferred to uti possidetis facto in determining the actual frontier, even if the line was established as an internal boundary by legal acts of a third state.
The just ethnic composition
The other two main principles applied in the award were ethnographical composition and equity. The new boundaries must reflect the views of the people concerned. As observed by Ratner in 1996 "when a new state is formed, its territory ought not to be irretrievably predetermined but should form an element in the goal of maximal internal determination". In our case sub-commissions were established to investigate the national consciousness of the populations in the disputed areas; both delegations presented scientific studies concerning historical and ethnic origins of those living on both sides of the old administrative line, and those were carefully studied by the chairman of the tribunal and verified on the spot. However, the arbitral tribunal failed to resort to the plebiscites as referred to in the compromis. According to the President of the Commission, the decision to hold a plebiscite in one disputed area would lead to the demands of the loser to decide all the boundary on the basis of the sympathies of the voters, which was of neither party's interest.
Three sections of the frontier were drawn by the commission on the basis of ethnic grounds, adjusting the frontier to separate the areas dominated either by Lithuanian or Latvian-speaking populations. On these grounds, Aknysta (Aknīste) region was given back to Latvia and the coastal town of Palanga to Lithuania. Concerning the third section of the frontier, the Commission found itself unable to confirm the Lithuanian claim that the ethnic composition of the population favoured the transfer of Ilūkste (Alūkšta) region or part of it to Lithuania.
It is clear from reading the decision and its commentary by Charlotte Alston of 2002 and Zenonas Butkus of 1993 equal outcome constituted the most important task of the Commission. The final result of the ruling provided for more or less similar portions of land for both parties. Despite the general principle to adjust the boundary on ethnic grounds, the report of the commission stresses that "to base its decision solely on the grounds of ethnographic majority in the light of the circumstances was to let the majority to take with it very disproportionate land plots". Therefore, the intention of the commission was indeed to provide the parties with more or less equal land plots, which could eventually be used to settle the displaced ethnic population from the other side of the frontier. Probably this was also one of the reasons not to resort to the plebiscites in the disputed areas. In his final evaluation of the work of the Commission, its President professor Simpson also notes that "it was impossible, as it would have been unwise, to attempt to apply any hard and fast rule all along the line". Both Lithuania and Latvia were basing their claims on similar grounds. Disproportionality in adjusting the factual boundary may have had created problems of implementation of the award.
The principle of equity was largely applied in border delimitation at the beginning of the 20th century. For instance, the 1930 arbitration treaty between Guatemala and Honduras stipulated that in the case that either party has acquired interests beyond the uti possidetis line, they must be taken into consideration in establishing the final frontier, the arbitral tribunal shall modify as it may consider suitable the line and shall fix such territorial or other compensation as it may deem equitable for one party to pay to the other.
As prescribed by the compromis, the Commission took into account the ethnic origin of the majority of population in the disputed areas, economic needs of both countries (to certain extend). The main preoccupation however was not to find out the exact historical, ethnographic or economically justified line between the two countries but to settle their dispute by trying to find the compromise based on law and acceptable to both parties, and the solution was found in equitable delimitation of the disputed areas. Time has proven that Simpson was right when writing in the report of the commission that "adjustments have been made which are not without some value in many cases to both sides, and which may stand the test of time". Legal principles applied by the arbitration commission in the 1921 Lithuanian-Latvian border dispute follow closely the classic border delimitation theory (see for example D.B. Carter, H.E. Goemans 2009), contributing to the remarkably stable line of state practice. Continuous application for 100 years since the successful settlement constitutes a significant indicator of the value of the award as important guidance for border arbitrators.
Rytis Satkauskas graduated from Vilnius University in 1999 and continued his doctorate studies in Paris (1999-2000) and Madrid (2003-2004). He lectured at the Vilnius University Law Faculty and publishes continuously on aspects of international humanitarian law, investment protection, border delimitation, law of the sea, minority rights and international justice. Rytis Satkauskas practiced public international law for more than 20 years within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania with diplomatic postings in Madrid, Paris, Beijing, and London.
Posted in: Arbitration, Public International Law
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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"Полицейско управление Ню Йорк" () е американска полицейска драма, чието действие се развива в Ню Йорк и разкриваща вътрешните и външни борби на фиктивния 15-и участък на Манхатън. Всеки епизод обикновено запълва един ден и преплита няколко сюжета, засягащи главния състав.

Сериалът е по идея на Стивън Бочко и Дейвид Милч. Епизодите му са излъчвани по ABC от дебюта му на 21 септември 1993 г. до 1 март 2005 г.

"Полицейско управление Ню Йорк" в България
В България сериалът започва излъчване през 2006 г. по Fox Crime. През септември 2009 г. започва девети сезон, но поради неясни причини в началото е без дублаж и скоро след това вече е озвучен. След него до края на годината биват излъчени и останалите три сезона. Дублажът е на студио Доли. През различните сезони съставът на озвучаващите гласове търпи промени. Артисти, които озвучават в сериала, са Силвия Русинова, Гергана Стоянова, Елена Русалиева, Таня Димитрова, Татяна Захова, Лина Златева, Анна Петрова, Борис Чернев във всички епизоди до девети сезон включително, Николай Николов, Здравко Методиев, Светозар Кокаланов, Росен Плосков, Александър Митрев, Емил Емилов и Васил Бинев.

На 26 февруари 2010 г. започва повторно излъчване по Диема, от вторник до петък от 19:00. Дублажът също е на студио Доли, но е записан наново. От първи сезон ролите се озвучават от артистите Силвия Русинова, Гергана Стоянова, Николай Николов, Емил Емилов и Здравко Методиев. Това е първоначалният екип от първия дублаж, като единствено покойният Борис Чернев е заместен от Емил Емилов.

Външни препратки

Криминални сериали
Драматични сериали
Американски сериали
Предавания на Ей Би Си

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Small businesses are turning to software as a service (SaaS) and social media offerings to boost their online sales, but significant hurdles remain.
Small to medium-size businesses (SMBs) are looking to attract new customers but struggle with implementing a technology infrastructure to manage online stores, which could expose them to a wider audience, according to a survey from business automation and order management solutions specialist Dydacomp, conducted at its annual user conference in Chicago.
The survey found more than 50 percent of SMBs view attracting new customers it as their number one concern, with 23 percent citing deployment of online store management platforms as a significant challenge. Small business owners are also looking to new online channels to grow their companies, the survey indicated, with nearly 50 percent of respondents interested in leveraging mobile technologies and solutions and more than 25 percent wanting to understand how to use social media channels, such as Facebook and Twitter, to attract new customers.
Survey results also indicated while software as a service (SaaS) offers many benefits for the SMB market, more than 60 percent of respondents said they have not yet evaluated any SaaS solutions for their business, although the benefits of SaaS solutions are numerous. The report found 38 percent identifying the ability to integrate multiple systems, such as Webstore, payment processing, shipping and accounting as a positive. Another 38 percent cited having someone else manage infrastructure as a major benefit of SaaS.
"The data we acquired from our customers during the conference is invaluable; it revealed that today s SMBs are open to leveraging new channels to attract customers and that they are beginning to see the benefits of SaaS solutions -- even though they have yet to evaluate the solutions themselves," Dydacomp CEO Fred Lizza said in a press statement. In examining what aspect of an order management system is most important to their customers, respondents ranked order processing as the most important factor, and a majority of respondents said that the most important factor for their customers when shopping is the ability to easily find products.
Ecommerce continues to take an important role in the retail space and is expected to grow over 15 percent in 2012 according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. With more and more SMBs looking to expand online to attract new buyers, trends have emerged that provide insight into consumer spending and confidence. In April, Dydacomp partnered with Internet Retailer Magazine to issue a monthly index of industry trends for small to mid-sized retailers called the Dydacomp SMB Index , compiled from more than 1.7 million orders per month at more than 1,500 e-commerce operators.


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MOTIVATIONAL PRESS TO PUBLISH THE ENERGY CODE, 7 KEYS TO ACTIVATING YOUR DNA FOR INCREASED PERFORMANCE, CREATIVITY, INNOVATION AND PROFIT BY ELISABETTA FAENZA
[tag Elisabetta Faenza, The Energy Code, 7 Keys to Activation Your DNA for
Increased Performance, Creativity, Innovation and Profit, ]
Janet Carson
Janet@JustinSachsCompanies.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE (Carlsbad, CA – 02-19-2014) –Motivational Press today announced an agreement to publish The Energy Code, 7 Keys to Activating Your DNA for Increased Performance, Creativity, Innovation and Profit by Elisabetta Faenza, which offers readers an insight into the compelling science behind mood, energy and performance, as well as common sense tools to improve their productivity, and get more out of life at home, at work and at play.
For business owners and managers, the Energy Code provides compelling strategies to manage change, promote innovation and maximize team performance, increasing resilience and profitability. For release in Summer 2014.
The Energy Code – 7 Keys to Activating Your DNA for Increased Performance, Creativity, Innovation and Profit – shares with readers the:
16 Personality Types and how they influence brain function and energy levels
4 Modes of Productivity and how to harness them
7 keys to activating your DNA and how these can improve performance
Drawing on her experience as an international sales trainer, corporate consultant, and performance expert, Elisabetta makes sense of the latest scientific breakthroughs coming out of quantum biology and neuroscience, revealing how this information can improve productivity, innovation and profitability.
Acclaimed by individuals and organizations alike, The Energy Code will revolutionize the way you think about your own productivity, and the way you manage the performance of your team. Supported by a workbook and YouTube videos, the Energy Code is easy to implement in every area of your life.
Here's what people have to say about The Energy Code:
"Excellent ideas." Susan Day – Bankwest
"Mind blowing! Noetic sciences are what I need to learn more about." Samantha Jackson – NSW Dept. of Education and Training
"The Energy Code is an inspiring and thought-provoking book." John Duffy – ROV
"Great models, strong IP. Refreshing and great to bring science to real case study examples. Great ideas. Congrats." Sharonne Phillips – Trainer
"Yes, I get it. Great to hear someone articulate the importance of energy. How do you become resilient to the negative energy of others." Priscilla Campbell-Wilson – Mercer
"Loved it! Really positive messages." Donette McIvor-Stone – Freemantle Media
"After 50 or so years of corporate management and doing several of these processes (both organisational restructuring and management training ) – this is by far the best" Antony Coote AM, Executive Chairman – Angus & Coote, Founder – The Mulloon Institute,
Motivational Press is excited to work with Elisabetta Faenza to share with readers how to:
Maximise individual and team performance
Manage your own attitude, and positively influence others
Change unwanted behaviours at home and work
Utilise the latest scientific advances to boost innovation and manage change
Elisabetta Faenza is an expert in human performance, with 30 years experience working with individuals, corporates, transnationals and government agencies. Elisabetta's journey was prompted by a childhood diagnosis of a rare genetic condition, which led her on a quest to understand how our bodies and the environment interact to switch genes on and off. As a clinical hypnotherapist and performance mentor, Elisabetta has assisted thousands of individuals to change unwanted behaviours, recover from trauma and achieve personal and career goals. With a Masters in International Relations, Elisabetta also has a keen understanding of the global trends that affect business and individuals alike. During her post-graduate studies she became more and more interested in why individuals, organisations and ethnic groups have repeating patterns of behaviour and how sometimes one individual can influence many others. This research led her to the place where psychoneuroimmunology, quantum biology and the behavioural sciences intersect – epigenetics, and to discover the keys to unlocking the energy code. Elisabetta is the author of The Energy Bucket, The Infidel, Veritas and was librettist for the musical 'D'Arc, the Legend of Saint Joan.'
About Motivational Press:
Motivational Press is a global leader in the field of general interest publishing, dedicated to providing the best in nonfiction for consumers of all ages, across all printed, electronic, and audio formats. Motivational Press is a broad-based publisher with strengths in business books, self-help books, health, wellness, sports, narrative nonfiction, reference, pop culture, design, and religious and spiritual books. Motivational Press is consistently at the forefront of innovation, using digital technology to create unique reading experiences and expand the reach of its authors. Its divisions include Motivational Press Adult Publishing, Motivational Press Children's Publishing, Motivational Press Audio, Motivational Press Digital and international companies in Australia, Canada, Germany, Brazil and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit www.MotivationalPress.com.
[category 2] [tag Elisabetta Faenza, The Energy Code, 7 Keys to
Activation Your DNA for Increased Performance, Creativity, Innovation and
Profit, ]
7 Keys to Activation Your DNA for Increased Performance
Elisabetta Faenza
Innovation and Profit
The Energy Code
Written by Publisher


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One Week Until Draft Night
June 15, 2017 June 15, 2017 by joe
The 76ers finally have a top prospect visiting their practice facility Thursday with just a week remaining until draft night. Malik Monk arrived in Philly on Tuesday according to his Instagram. (Side not: Monk's a fan of the band the 1975, and they are freaking awesome). Monk has been lost in the shuffle certainly because he's considered a reach at three. But Philadelphia clearly has interest in the six-three two guard as it should. Monk's a natural scorer, and he'd help spacing big time as early as this year.
The most popular rumor deals with Sacramento trading the fifth and 10th picks to Philadelphia for the third. If Sacramento offers that deal, Bryan Colangelo better have the league office on speed dial. This time of year, however, there's always rumors. Some of them end up being relatively true, but usually they are just smoke. Another popular rumor is one of the top-three teams assured Josh Jackson he'd be selected in that position. Jackson cancelled a workout with Boston, and scheduled a second with the Lakers, prompting many to assume the Lakers were the team that promised Jackson. The Lakers won't reveal who they're picking even a day before the draft. There's no reason for them to do that, and plus Los Angeles will bring Lonzo Ball in for a second workout. It's been reported that Ball didn't necessarily impress the Lakers brass in his first workout, but Ball isn't the type of player to impress in individual workouts, and the Lakers know that. Ball's the second best player in this draft, and if for some reason Los Angeles passes on him, the 76ers better not deal three for five and 10. Ball better be a 76er in that scenario.
This weekend Fox is supposed to visit Philadelphia. The interest, I'm sure, is real, but it's hard to see Fox making sense in Philadelphia. The 76ers don't appear desperate to draft a point guard for the sake of drafting one. Some teams consider Fox the third best prospect, I'm sure. Sacramento does. Maybe Philly's bringing in Fox not just because they have interest, but also to show other teams picking after Philadelphia the team has interest. The best scenario for Philly, outside of Markelle Fultz magically becoming a Sixer or the Lakers bypassing Ball, has to be Sacramento trading five and 10 for three, which I'll breakdown now.
Five and 10 give Philadelphia endless possibilities in a real impressive draft. According to Draft Express, the fifth would be Jayson Tatum and the 10th Frank Ntilikina. If the trade happens, Ntilikina would be an absolute dream at 10. As for the fifth pick, Jonathan Isaac would be the guy I'd hope Philadelphia draft. In this scenario Philly adds two of the most versatile players on offense and defense. Ntilikina might not be a solid shooter right away, but he's a great fit next to Simmons defensively. He's also not expected to contribute right away, which is 100 percent OK with the 76ers. The NBA Finals, again, demonstrated the importance of versatility. Colangelo focused on adding wing depth last draft, adding Furkan Korkmaz and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. Luwawu-Cabarrot made positive contributions in his first season, while Korkmaz appears to be a player who will make a splash in the NBA as soon as he arrives from Europe.
Let's say the 76ers keep the third pick with Fultz and Ball presumably gone. What happens now? Jackson appeared to be the guy immediately following the lottery. He's still could very well be the guy. There hasn't been much chatter about him in Philadelphia outside of a source saying he was assured a top-three selection. Ian Begley, from ESPN, reported how some in Philly's front office remaining super interested in Dennis Smith Jr. There's no such thing as reaching for a player at three as far as I'm concerned. Obviously if you have the opportunity to move down and still get the guy you want, do it. But this notion that Philly picking Smith at three would be some kind of mistake seems trivial. This won't help anyone, but at this point no name would shock me as Woj reveals Philadelphia's pick eight minutes before Adam Silver does.
The NBA's playoffs were a drag. The draft and subsequent offseason, however, will not be. There's potential for batshit crazy things to happen next week in Brooklyn. What's LaVar's reaction if the Lakers bypass on the homegrown superstar? Could Paul George or Jimmy Butler be dealt on draft night? What about Kevin Love? The likelihood of something truly shocking happening appears low, but the NBA has never been short on drama.
Photo from Getty Images (Andy Lyons)
Future 76er Josh Jackson?
All in On Markelle Fultz


Take a look at the calendar. Do you see what I see? Very busy days just ahead. There will be shopping and crafting, rehearsals and pageants, parties, wrapping and shipping … need I go on?
I know from experience that you can blow a cannon-size hole in your holiday budget if you rely on take-out and drive-thru to make it through the holiday season. But you can avoid that if you start out with a freezer full of menu items the family can thaw, heat and eat.
Place all ingredients in a large bowl and combine well with your very clean hands. Form into 1-inch balls, place on an ungreased cookie sheet and bake at 375 F about 45 minutes. Drain off fat and allow to cool. Put into freezer on trays until frozen and then transfer to zip-lock bags.
For noodles and meatballs: In a large sauce pan, mix together 1 can cream of mushroom soup, 1/2 package dry onion soup mix and 1 cup water. Bring to a boil. Reduce to simmer, add 18-24 meatballs and continue to simmer until meatballs are heated through. Serve over egg noodles; makes six servings.
For spaghetti and meatballs: Heat your favorite spaghetti sauce in a large pan. Add meatballs and allow to thoroughly heat through. Serve over spaghetti noodles.
Make meatball soup the same way you'd make stew: meat or vegetable stock, onion, carrots, celery, tomatoes, pasta or potatoes or whatever you like. Add meatballs at the end and heat through.
Mix Raisin Bran, sugar, flour salt and baking soda in a large bowl. Add eggs, oil, and buttermilk. Mix and store in a container with a tightly fitting lid in the refrigerator for up to six weeks (honest).
To use: Fill greased or paper-lined muffin tins two-thirds full. You can make as few or as many muffins as you like at a time. Bake 20 minutes in 400F oven. Makes 50 muffins.
Tip: Instead of storing the batter in the refrigerator, make up all 50 muffins, but instead of baking them, place the muffin tins in the freezer. Once frozen, pop the unbaked muffins into zip-type bags. Now you're one step closer to freshly baked bran muffins. Simply add 5 minutes to the baking time when starting with frozen batter.
Brown the ground beef in a large pot. Add remaining ingredients and simmer for 30 minutes. Freeze in meal-size containers. Serve with cornbread and grated cheddar.
Hint: Make up your favorite cornbread and freeze the batter in paper-lined muffin tins. Once frozen transfer to zip-type bags. To bake, place the muffins (as many as you need) back into the muffin pan and bake as usual, adding 5 minutes to the baking time.
Want to share your freeze-ahead ideas? Use the comments feature below!


A common thread in everyone's story is a defining moment. One that either pulled them away from God or slightly closer to Him. Reclaimed is a series about re-aligning your heart with Jesus. We have all been lost but can never escape God's love and grace.
In the fall of 2005, four families sold houses and left jobs to chase after a God-sized dream of launching a church to reach hurting people in the Wilmington area. In February of 2006, that dream became a reality; Lifepoint Church was born.
The church has grown from just a living room full of people, and we've had the privilege of seeing lives changed, marriages restored, and addictions broken. Lifepoint has been on the front lines, feeding the homeless, giving away gas, honoring teachers, filling food pantries, providing Christmas gifts to underprivileged families, doing work projects at public schools, and a whole lot more. The best is yet to come!
Pastor Jeff Kapusta (Ka-poo-sta) is the founding and Lead Pastor of Lifepoint Church. God has called him to mobilize a movement of believers to live beyond themselves and reach the world for Christ.
Stay up to date with all things Lifepoint: news, events, announcements, ministry opportunities and even the occasional random thought from our staff!
Over and over, scripture instructs us to give back a portion of what God has so generously blessed us with and entrusted to us. Every dollar you give to Lifepoint Church makes an impact in this community and across the earth for the glory of Jesus Christ; the Gospel is preached, lives are changed, the hungry are fed, and you, in turn, are blessed by God so that you can continue to be a blessing for God.
We hope you'll love Lifepoint, but we also recognize that we are only one small part of the much larger Body of Christ throughout our community and beyond. If you find that Lifepoint doesn't feel like home, we would love to help you get connected to a church where you can plug in. In fact, we've compiled a list of some of the outstanding churches in the Wilmington area that we have great relationships with.


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Home #Hwoodtimes Artist Albina Zorina Needs Your Support for Breast Cancer Awareness Month and is...
Artist Albina Zorina Needs Your Support for Breast Cancer Awareness Month and is excited to auction off an Angelina Jolie painting
Debra Wallace
Albina Zorina
By Debra Wallace
Los Angeles, CA (The Hollywood Times) 9/29/21 – Well-known Artist, Albina Zorina is known for her sophisticated paintings of Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Kathleen Cleaver, Al Pacino, and other A-listers.
In honor of her mother Vera who had breast cancer at 51-years old and is now a breast cancer survivor, Albina has donated an Angelina Jolie painting to raise funds for a charity dear to her heart, The Tutu Project.
The Tutu Project was founded by Linda Carey, also a breast cancer survivor, and her husband Bob Carey, a photographer. The Tutu Project gives rides to chemo patients and provides badly-needed financial and emotional support to patients. The auction runs from Sept. 30 through Oct. 28, 2021.
The fundraising event on https://fundduel.com/index.php/duel/699 will include the auction of the Angelina Jolie painting as well as other items including records from the Beatles, Prince, and Eminem by local artist Alison Rivera of Ali Cuts Records, feature interviews in global magazines, Spa & Gift Basket, and more," explains Linda Hansen CEO of Fund Duel.
Linda Hansen explains the power of Fund Duel
"Fund Duel" is a team-based competition and video/photo-based challenges that are shared on social media. The magic comes in chain-reaction sharing that causes a campaign to virtually explode.
Most of the campaigns on Fund Duel expand across the globe and potentially reach hundreds of thousands if not millions of participants.
Fund Duel mobilizes the masses to act, donate and share," says Linda Hansen, CEO of Fund Duel, which has brought major success to charities with campaigns raising $100,000 plus, (www.fundduel.com.)
Linda Carey of The Tutu Project explains that "2020 and 2021 were challenging years, however, people were generous with their donations. As a result of those donations, we were able to release an immediate15K when the stay at home was enforced to help those patients unable to work during the pandemic. We continue to offer grants throughout the year."
"This year has been a little slower," adds Carey, "since our annual fundraiser, Dare Tutu on Sept. 15th which runs for two months. That is why we are excited to join forces with Artist Albina Zorina and her team at Fund Duel to raise funds for October Breast Awareness Month on September 24 on Fun Duel. Please be generous."
For additional information please contact Linda Hansen of Fund Duel at linda@fundduel.com.
Angelina Jolie painting
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Debra Wallace figured out early in life that she wanted to combine her deep love for movies, theater, and the arts with her love for storytelling and has made a career as a writer, editor, content provider, and motivational speaker. Wallace was a staff feature and news reporter for the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, the Stuart News, and the Palm Beach Daily News, and currently writes about celebrities, entertainment, health/wellness, special needs parenting, and hometown heroes for Parade.com, Monsters & Critics, Philadelphia Life, Orlando Family, South Jersey, Delaware Today, The Hollywood Times, and several other print and digital magazines.


WASHINGTON: The United States launched multiple airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Libya on Monday, opening a new, more persistent front against the group at the request of the United Nations-backed government, Libyan and US officials said.
Fayez Serraj, the head of Libya's UN-brokered presidency council, said in a televised statement that American warplanes attacked the IS bastion of Sirte on the Mediterranean in northern Libya. No U.S. ground forces will be deployed, he said.
The strikes mark the start of a more intense American role in the fight against IS in Libya, as the US steps in to assist the fragile, UN-backed government. They were the first strikes by the US on the group in Libya since February. Obama's authorization for action in Sirte covers strikes, intelligence and surveillance, but not ground operations, according to a White House official, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly about the strikes and requested anonymity.
Serraj said his government is joining the coalition against IS, adding: "This is the time for the international community to live up to its promises to the Libyan people." Serraj also noted that the strikes will not go beyond Sirte and its surroundings. He said that any other foreign intervention is not allowed without coordination.
His warning comes after several French commandos were killed fighting Islamic State militants. US, French, British and Italian special operations forces and military experts have been assisting Libyan troops fighting IS militants in eastern and western Libya.
In a statement, Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said President Barack Obama authorized the strikes following a recommendation from Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "They are consistent with our approach to combating ISIL by working with capable and motivated local forces," said Cook, using another name for the Islamic State group.
US officials earlier this year estimated there were as many as 6,000 Islamic State insurgents in Libya, including some who have abandoned Syria. But in recent months, officials say, their numbers in Libya have dropped and the group is weakening there under pressure from local militias and the UN-brokered government.
Without mentioning any future US military plans in Libya, Dunford said that "whatever actions we conduct," aside from those meant to eliminate an IS threat to the US homeland, "are going to be in conjunction with" the UN-backed government of national accord.
In February, American F-15E fighter-bombers struck an Islamic State training camp in rural Libya near the Tunisian border, killing more than 40. Libya slid into chaos after the ouster and killing of dictator Col. Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. The power and security vacuum left the country a breeding ground for militias, and militants including the Islamic State group and al-Qaida affiliates.
Since 2014, Libya has been split between rival governments and parliaments based in the western and eastern regions, each backed by different militias and tribes. The UN brokered a deal in December, which tried to mend the rift by creating a presidency council and a unity government. The deal envisions a transitional period of up to two years, followed by a vote on a draft constitution and then presidential or parliamentary elections.