text:
Australia from Space – The Blue Mountains
The dramatic and dense Blue Mountains are located to the west of Sydney, Australia. This image was taken by the Landsat 7 satellite.
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS RISE to a broad plateau not far west of Sydney, Australia. In the heart of the mountains lies the Grose Valley, bounded by sheer 300-metre-high cliffs.
This dramatic landscape was sculpted by forces of erosion acting on the underlying geology; that is, characteristics of each rock type helped determine the topography.
This natural-colour satellite image was acquired by the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) instrument on the Landsat 7 satellite.
Deep green forests, dominated by eucalyptus trees, cover the landscape. The light grey buildings of Blackheath lie just to the west of the valley (lower left), and the light green orchards and pastures surrounding Berambing are visible to the northeast (upper right).
Two main types of rocks make up the Grose Valley and the immediate surroundings: a young, thin layer of volcanic rock, and a thick sequence of sedimentary rocks, laid down by wind and water several hundred million years ago. Several distinct types of shale, sandstone, and siltstone appear in the sedimentary sequence, which comprises the bedrock in most of this image.
Artist's impression of the Landsat 7 satellite
The topmost layer is comprised of basalt erupted 15 to 18 million years ago from an unknown source. Most of this basalt has eroded away, but some can still be found at high points like Mount Tomah. Soils in these areas support a unique ecosystem called Tableland Basalt Forest, which appears bright green in this image.
Directly beneath the basalt are Wianamatta Group shales, followed by the Hawkesbury Sandstone—which forms the cliffs along the Sydney coast, 100 kilometres to the east. These two rock layers are softer than the basalt above and the sandstone below, so they have mostly eroded away except where protected by a cap of basalt.
Beneath the Wianamatta Group and Hawkesbury Sandstone are layers of very hard sandstone called the Narrabeen Group. These 240 million-year-old sandstones resist erosion and form the sheer cliffs that surround Grose Valley.
Softer shales and sandstones, the "Coal Measures," underlie the Narrabeen sandstones and make up the slopes visible beneath the cliffs. Coal and oil shales in these formations have been mined extensively.
At the base of the valley is Berry Siltstone, originally deposited on an ocean floor over 260 million years ago. The Grose River flows atop this siltstone, carrying freshly eroded sand grains eastwards to the ocean.
See the full-size image of the Blue Mountains from space.
Text adapted from information issued by Robert Simmon. NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, with Landsat data from the USGS Global Visualization Viewer. Landsat graphic courtesy NASA.
Filed Under: Earth from Space • Featured stories • News Archive
Tags: Australia from space • Blue Mountains • Sydney


text:
Eldon Mattison Woolliams,  (12 April 1916 – 24 September 2001) was a Canadian politician and lawyer. Wooliams served as a Progressive Conservative Party member of the House of Commons of Canada.

He was born in Rosetown, Saskatchewan, and his career included law and education. He was shadow Justice Minister and Chairman of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Justice and Legal Affairs. As a 'Perry Mason' style trial lawyer, he had over two dozen murder trials where he won the cases as barrister for the accused. He was a descendant of Sir Matthew Hale, Lord Chief Justice of England.

Woolliams first represented Alberta's Bow River electoral district. His first attempt to win the riding in the 1957 federal election was unsuccessful, but he would defeat incumbent Charles Edward Johnston in the 1958 election. Woolliams was re-elected there in 1962, 1963 and 1965.

In the 1960s, Woolliams was one of the main friends of John Diefenbaker's top friends, and they had fought defense trials together in Saskatchewan and Alberta. He was responsible with colleague Erik Nielsen in bringing pressure on the Pearson and Trudeau governments, and a few cabinet ministers, particularity the Justice Minister, had to resign their portfolios.

When the ridings were redrawn in 1966, Woolliams was elected in the Calgary North riding in the 1968 election and was re-elected there in 1972, 1974, and 1979. In his last years in the House of Commons, he sat on the front bench of the Conservatives and remained a formidable opponent of Liberal policies of the governments of Pierre Trudeau. Chiefly, as Shadow Justice Minister, Woolliams in many speeches warned of the Napoleonic legal philosophy of the Liberals and that the socio-political engineering, such as Trudeau's Charter of Rights and Freedoms, would erode ancient British guarantees of individual rights in favour of a politically-correct philosophy of group rights and legislation from the Supreme Court of Canada, which, he believed, would erode democracy and true justice and freedom. It was a singular blow for him that he was not given the Justice Ministry under new Conservative leader Joe Clark in 1979. He warned against Clark's exclusion of the Quebec Creditists, which caused the minority government to be defeated over the 1980 budget after only nine months.

Woolliams left national politics in 1980 and did not campaign in that year's national elections after he had served eight successive terms from the 24th to the 31st Canadian Parliaments. The Clark government was defeated in the 1980 elections by a rejuvenated Liberal regime still under Trudeau.

After the return of the Conservatives to power under Brian Mulroney, Woolliams served in the capacity of emeritus adviser and Chairman of the Justices Commission, which was given more financial resources for its time on the bench.

He studied at Saskatchewan Teacher's College and the University of Saskatchewan and was appointed Queen's Counsel. Diefenbaker called Woolliams the best defense trial lawyer in Canada during his day. He also was made special Lecturer on Peace through Law in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, during his service in the Canadian Parliament. A scholarship fund in his name exists at the University of Saskatchewan College of Law.

References

3. Eldon M Woolliams QC, barrister, Supreme Court of Canada reported cases (online) and decisions:
http://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/en/d/s/index.do?cont=Woolliams&col=1

  4. CBC Archives: Eldon Woolliams QC MP, as Justice Critic, role in Tory Opposition to the Trudeau Omnibus Bill (1968)liberalizing abortion, homosexuality, no-fault divorce etc., & TV interview by the CBC's Barbara Frum:
http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/the-opposition-takes-aim-at-the-omnibus-bill

External links

Televised Participation in House of Commons Questions & Debates| https://web.archive.org/web/20160611132541/http://www.cpac.ca/en/digital-archives/?search=Woolliams

Eldon M Woolliams Archives at the Glenbow Museum in Calgary: http://www.glenbow.org/collections/search/findingAids/archhtm/woolliams.cfm

1916 births
2001 deaths
Canadian King's Counsel
Lawyers in Saskatchewan
Members of the House of Commons of Canada from Alberta
Progressive Conservative Party of Canada MPs
People from Rosetown
University of Saskatchewan alumni
University of Saskatchewan College of Law alumni

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Q: How to include dlls in flutter build windows I am working on a flutter project that runs fine in development.
However I do not know how to get the build to include dll's referenced using FFI.
I can't find clear instructions on how to do it.
I tried following the steps to build an msix here, which worked but didn't seem to include the dll (it fails in the same way as the regular build)
what is the procedure to have the build process consider the dll's?
other dll's show up in the build directory from 3rd party packages so there must be a way right?

A: That's really hard to discover by your own, but indeed you can bind those libraries to you MSIX. In my case I just made a package for label printers using Dart FFI and DLL`s provided by manufacturer and this is how I did it.
You need to add these DLL's to your assets setting on pubspec.yaml from your package. This is my case:
[...]
flutter:
  [...]
  assets:
    - assets/WinPort.dll
    - assets/Winppla.dll
    - assets/Winpplb.dll
    - assets/Winpplz.dll

With this setting you will embed your DLL files in your final MSIX, but this was the easy part. Now you have make sure to load the proper load these files in code.
Based on my own tests, I still dealing with two ways to develop and test code, the first one is when I am running a project in my machine via flutter run I must set the target for current.path, when I get it done and start building for deploy I change this to resolvedExecutable.parent.path. Where is what you need to do.
Loading you DLL in development environment (flutter run):
final String _packageAssetsDirPath = normalize(join(Directory.current.path,'assets'));

On production environment (running from .exe or MSIX installed):
final String _assetsPackageDir = normalize(
      join('data', 'flutter_assets', 'packages', 'YOUR_PACKAGE_NAME', 'assets'));
  final String _exeDirPath = File(Platform.resolvedExecutable).parent.path;
  final String _packageAssetsDirPath =
      normalize(join(_exeDirPath, _assetsPackageDir));

After with this var called _packageAssetsDirPath will be easy to load your DLL's, now you invoke a DynamicLibrary constructor:
// Path for DLL file
final String _libDllSourceFullPath =
      normalize(join(_packageAssetsDirPath, 'Winppla.dll'));
// Target for copy, place DLL in same place the .exe you are running
final String _libDllDestFullPath =
      normalize(join(_packageAssetsDirPath, 'YOUROWN.dll'));
// Try to copy for running exe path
File(_libDllSourceFullPath).copySync(_libDllDestFullPath);

// With this copy, would be simple to load, and if it fails, try in full path
// LOAD DLL
  try {
    String _packageAssetsDirPath =
        normalize(join(Directory.current.path, 'assets'));
    String _printerLibraryPath =
        normalize(join(_packageAssetsDirPath, 'Winppla.dll'));

    DynamicLibrary _library = DynamicLibrary.open(_printerLibraryPath);
    return _library;
  } catch (e) {
    try {
      DynamicLibrary _library = DynamicLibrary.open('Winppla.dll');
      return _library;
    } catch (e) {
      // Avoing errors creating a fake DLL, but you could deal with an exception
      return DynamicLibrary.process();

    }
  }

At this point you can load a DLL and use it, you can check my package full code at https://github.com/saviobatista/argox_printer check for lib/src/ppla.dart at function _setupDll() and you will see that loading.

A: I built a simpler option inspired in the solution of Sávio Batista
(You must have your .dll in your assets folder)
if (kReleaseMode) {
    // I'm on release mode, absolute linking
    final String local_lib =  join('data',  'flutter_assets', 'assets', 'libturbojpeg.dll');
    String pathToLib = join(Directory(Platform.resolvedExecutable).parent.path, local_lib);
    DynamicLibrary lib = DynamicLibrary.open(pathToLib);
  } else {
    // I'm on debug mode, local linking
    var path = Directory.current.path;
    DynamicLibrary lib = DynamicLibrary.open('$path/assets/libturbojpeg.dll');
  }

Just replace libturbojpeg.dll for your .dll

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text:
Manufacturing a key driver of Alberta economy
By Troy Media on January 10, 2020 No Comment
Total annual revenue was up 7.1 per cent in 2018 compared to 2017, reaching $80.4 billion, but still four per cent below peak set in 2014
Just how important is the manufacturing sector to Alberta's overall economy?
Some data released by Statistics Canada recently indicates it is a vital source of jobs for the province and a key in growing the economy.
"Zeroing in on Alberta, the sector's total annual revenue was up 7.1 per cent in 2018 compared to 2017, reaching $80.4 billion. While much improved compared to the recession years, this figure was still four per cent below the peak set in 2014," says ATB Financial's Economics & Research Team in their economic update The Owl.
"After expenses of $76.7 billion, the sector's profit was up by a solid 13.1 per cent, hitting $12.6 billion in 2018. As with revenue, profit was still below the pre-recession record by 3.3 per cent."
ATB says the sector paid out $8.5 billion in wages to 131,371 employees in 2018. Expenditure on wages was up 6.3 per cent compared to 2017 while the total number of employees rose by 4.5 per cent.
"Things were a little different nationally. For every dollar of revenue earned in 2018, Alberta's manufacturing companies spent 84.4 cents in expenses compared to 91.0 cents in the country as a whole," it says.
"Total revenue in Canada was up 5.6 per cent, trailing Alberta's growth by 1.5 percentage points. More tellingly, profit was down in the country's manufacturing sector as a whole by 1.3 per cent compared to the 13.1 per cent jump in Alberta.
"As a result, even though Alberta's manufacturing sector accounted for 10.9 per cent of the national sector's revenue, it generated 18.8 per cent of total profits."
© Calgary's Business
Alberta, Jobs, Manufacturing
Manufacturing a key driver of Alberta economy added by Troy Media on January 10, 2020
View all posts by Troy Media →


text:
Guest Post — Putting Publications into Context with the DocMaps Framework for Editorial Metadata
By Jessica Polka, Gary McDowell, Tony Ross-Hellauer, Gabe Stein
When you read a piece of journalism from a well-known publication, why do you trust it? In all likelihood, you believe that events have taken place during the article's production to make the reporting accurate and trustworthy. For example, you likely assume that the journalists involved will interview and check sources, and that editors will revise and edit the piece. But this process is opaque, and for all intents and purposes, appears identical no matter the news source. In the current age of disinformation and "fake news", nearly anyone can create a website that looks and feels like a high quality brand, even if the content they produce is completely made up. What if, instead of trusting the publication's brand alone, we could peek behind the curtain, and get a glimpse of the events taking place in the creation of articles?
Trust in academic journal articles is based on similar expectations. Journals carry out editorial processes from peer review to plagiarism checks. But these processes are highly heterogeneous in how, when, and by whom they are undertaken. In many cases, it's not always readily apparent to the outside observer that they take place at all. And as new innovations in peer review and the open research movement lead to new experiments in how we produce and distribute research products, understanding what events take place is an increasingly important issue for publishers, authors, and readers alike.
With this in mind, the DocMaps project (a joint effort of the Knowledge Futures Group, ASAPbio, and TU Graz, supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute), has been working with a Technical Committee to develop a machine-readable, interoperable and extensible framework for capturing valuable context about the processes used to create research products such as journal articles. This framework is being designed to capture as much (or little) contextual data about a document as desired by the publisher: from a minimum assertion that an event took place, to a detailed history of every edit to a document.
Numerous recent initiatives (Transpose, Peer Review Transparency, Review Maps, and STM's "A Standard Taxonomy for Peer Review") have been positive developments in the space of peer review experimentation and transparency. Such initiatives understandably tend to focus on the needs of the creators, and can be limited to traditional, even field-specific, peer review processes. They may not focus on representing editorial practices in ways that can be reliably aggregated, surfaced, and queried, or capture the full range of editorial practices and events needed to accommodate new publishing workflows in which reviews may be conducted by multiple parties, in different ways, at multiple points in time. But they can be integrated into a framework like DocMaps to allow those who do, or wish, to use them to frame their contextual metadata around them.
DocMaps aims to be a framework with a common way of describing editorial events, on which publishers of documents can place the components they can, or wish to, share. We have come up with two example use-cases for DocMaps with the help of our Technical Committee. In one, a publisher wishes to capture context about a double anonymized review of an article published in their journal with two rounds of revisions. In the other, an independent review service notifies a preprint server about a review of an article on their platform, describing a fully transparent review of a preprint article with links to the review report and author response. These are early attempts to describe conventions based on the ideas we have prioritized, and more detailed information is available.
In the course of our work, we have identified and clarified two key issues. The first is that we are focused on the fact that an event takes place, but do not seek to pass judgement about that event. How an event is viewed and judged is up to the consumer of the DocMap. For example, a third-party review service may use a DocMap to assert that they positively reviewed a preprint, but it should be up to the preprint server to decide if that review should be posted alongside the preprint.
This could in turn be used to increase trust in scholarly publishing, and particularly address concerns about misinformation with respect to preprints, and to clarify the status of retracted works, which have come to the fore during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, an article funded by an organization with a particular agenda was recently posted on Zenodo, claiming that COVID-19 had been developed in a lab. The preprint was subsequently promoted in a disinformation campaign, reaching the attention of the White House. To most observers, including journalists and the general public, looking at the article on Zenodo does not tell you that no quality control or screening has been undertaken, and it has all the appearance of a legitimate article. If scholarly repositories surfaced information about editorial processes, the difference between an article (and its vetting process) on Zenodo versus e.g., on medRxiv would be readily apparent. Similarly, clearer, machine-readable ways of flagging retractions would make discredited works more readily identifiable as such, and even enable publishers to demonstrate that retractions of published papers can lead to improvements in the review process.
Of course, no open system is ever completely immune to manipulation. In the Zenodo example above, the authors of the COVID-19 preprint could potentially publish a fraudulent DocMap asserting that a review process that never actually occurred took place on their preprint. But this happens regularly today with predatory journals that falsely claim to thoroughly review submissions. In a world with DocMaps, the fraud will be harder to perpetrate from a technical perspective and much more transparent, putting more of the burden of proof of process on the publisher and allowing readers to make more informed judgements about the likelihood of fraud.
The benefits compound at an ecosystem level. By making more data about editorial processes more accessible, DocMaps will allow third parties, including repositories like Zenodo, to more effectively screen for fraud, and researchers to more systematically study which processes work and which don't. Crucially, because the data will be public and interoperable, researchers would be able to do that independently.
The second issue we have found is that there can be a temptation to be prescriptive, and attempt to define specific taxonomies or workflows that can be represented. DocMaps aims to be agnostic to these definitions, and to focus instead on recording the existence of the underlying editorial events that shape taxonomies and workflows. Similar to the preprint server example above, we expect that publishers and consumers of DocMaps will describe and interpret the events provided according to their needs. In this way, we aim to ensure flexibility, and machine-readability, of contextual information for all types of uses, including non-traditional and even non-academic ones. We expect that conventions for publishing and interpreting DocMaps that can be used with specific taxonomies and workflows will arise, and intend to provide venues to support the development of these conventions.
The DocMaps project aims to create a community-endorsed framework for representing review and editorial processes, and to ensure that the object-level editorial metadata models in development are compatible with a broad range of possible futures for scholarly publishing, rather than locking in the current system. To do this, we are now looking for broader input from the community at large, through our Co-Creation Community. We want to identify different potential models and providers of object-level editorial events relevant to the biology community (including multiple models currently in development); develop the DocMaps specification to meet the needs of those efforts; work with key stakeholders to produce technical guides for implementing DocMaps in their current or planned systems/frameworks; and lay out a technical roadmap for a future aggregation service and browser extension. To get in touch and join the effort, or simply for more information, please contact DocMaps project manager Gary McDowell.
Jessica Polka
Jessica Polka is the Executive Director of ASAPbio, a researcher-driven nonprofit working to promote innovation and transparency in life sciences publishing. Jessica leads initiatives related to peer review and oversees the organization's general administrative and strategic needs.
View All Posts by Jessica Polka
Gary McDowell
Gary McDowell is an early-career researcher with a background in biomedical sciences working at Future of Research.
View All Posts by Gary McDowell
Tony Ross-Hellauer
Tony Ross-Hellauer is an early-career researcher with a background in information science, working at Know-Center.
View All Posts by Tony Ross-Hellauer
Gabe Stein
@gabestein
View All Posts by Gabe Stein
2 Thoughts on "Guest Post — Putting Publications into Context with the DocMaps Framework for Editorial Metadata"
So is DocMaps envisioned as manuscript management system or a secondary system to run in parallel with the publication work flow?
By Chris Mebane
Mar 3, 2021, 8:08 AM
Great question, and one that we plan to address in a next implementation phase. Ideally, DocMaps could be provided by, or at least extracted from, existing manuscript management systems as part of the publication workflow. In practice, at least initially to make it easy to implement, it seems likely that it will need to be extracted from websites that provide review information post-publication. There's been some interest in the idea of an initial implementation of a badge-like service that allows a publisher to put a single piece of code on the page that triggers a crawl of the page, creates a DocMap in a central repository from what it finds, and returns a user-facing badge or statement. When publishing systems are updated to output DocMaps, the service would be able to find the DocMap during the crawl and simply archive that. These are all open questions and ideas that we're planning for the next phase of the project as we begin to pilot with some initial partners. We welcome folks to reach out if they have thoughts or are interested in participating!
By Gabe Stein
Mar 3, 2021, 11:00 AM
Better Metadata Could Help Save The World!
Guest Post: Transparency – "This is What We Do, and This is What We Expect"
What Does Transparent Peer Review Mean and Why is it Important?
Driving Responsibly with Identity Management (Part 2: A Case Study)


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     Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA): Sunspots data

      Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA): Sunspots data

    Contents

Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA): Sunspots data

Sunspots Data

Show Source

      Seasonality in time series data

      Estimating or specifying parameters in state space models

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      Multivariate Methods

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    Contents

Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA): Sunspots data

Sunspots Data

Show Source

Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA): Sunspots data¶

This notebook replicates the existing ARMA notebook using the statsmodels.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX class rather than the statsmodels.tsa.ARMA class.

[1]:

%matplotlib inline

[2]:

import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

import statsmodels.api as sm

[3]:

from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot

Sunspots Data¶

[4]:

print(sm.datasets.sunspots.NOTE)

::

    Number of Observations - 309 (Annual 1700 - 2008)
    Number of Variables - 1
    Variable name definitions::

        SUNACTIVITY - Number of sunspots for each year

    The data file contains a 'YEAR' variable that is not returned by load.

[5]:

dta = sm.datasets.sunspots.load_pandas().data

[6]:

dta.index = pd.Index(sm.tsa.datetools.dates_from_range('1700', '2008'))
del dta["YEAR"]

[7]:

dta.plot(figsize=(12,4));

[8]:

fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(dta.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(dta, lags=40, ax=ax2)

[9]:

arma_mod20 = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(dta, order=(2,0,0), trend='c').fit(disp=False)
print(arma_mod20.params)

/home/travis/build/statsmodels/statsmodels/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:162: ValueWarning: No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency A-DEC will be used.
  % freq, ValueWarning)
/home/travis/build/statsmodels/statsmodels/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:162: ValueWarning: No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency A-DEC will be used.
  % freq, ValueWarning)

intercept     14.793947
ar.L1          1.390659
ar.L2         -0.688568
sigma2       274.761105
dtype: float64

[10]:

arma_mod30 = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(dta, order=(3,0,0), trend='c').fit(disp=False)

/home/travis/build/statsmodels/statsmodels/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:162: ValueWarning: No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency A-DEC will be used.
  % freq, ValueWarning)
/home/travis/build/statsmodels/statsmodels/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:162: ValueWarning: No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency A-DEC will be used.
  % freq, ValueWarning)

[11]:

print(arma_mod20.aic, arma_mod20.bic, arma_mod20.hqic)

2622.636338141554 2637.569703249145 2628.6067259868

[12]:

print(arma_mod30.params)

intercept     16.762205
ar.L1          1.300810
ar.L2         -0.508122
ar.L3         -0.129612
sigma2       270.102651
dtype: float64

[13]:

print(arma_mod30.aic, arma_mod30.bic, arma_mod30.hqic)

2619.403629663264 2638.070336047753 2626.8666144698213

Does our model obey the theory?

[14]:

sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_mod30.resid)

[14]:

1.9564844856034684

[15]:

fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,4))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = plt.plot(arma_mod30.resid)

[16]:

resid = arma_mod30.resid

[17]:

stats.normaltest(resid)

[17]:

NormaltestResult(statistic=49.847005865620545, pvalue=1.499202185268811e-11)

[18]:

fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,4))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)

[19]:

fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)

[20]:

r,q,p = sm.tsa.acf(resid, fft=True, qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1,41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print(table.set_index('lag'))

            AC          Q      Prob(>Q)
lag
1.0   0.009176   0.026273  8.712350e-01
2.0   0.041820   0.573727  7.506142e-01
3.0  -0.001342   0.574292  9.022915e-01
4.0   0.136064   6.407488  1.707135e-01
5.0   0.092433   9.108334  1.048203e-01
6.0   0.091919  11.788019  6.686841e-02
7.0   0.068735  13.291375  6.531940e-02
8.0  -0.015021  13.363412  9.994247e-02
9.0   0.187599  24.636916  3.400197e-03
10.0  0.213724  39.317881  2.233182e-05
11.0  0.201092  52.358271  2.347759e-07
12.0  0.117192  56.802110  8.581665e-08
13.0 -0.014051  56.866210  1.895533e-07
14.0  0.015394  56.943403  4.001105e-07
15.0 -0.024986  57.147465  7.747083e-07
16.0  0.080892  59.293627  6.880519e-07
17.0  0.041120  59.850085  1.112486e-06
18.0 -0.052030  60.744064  1.550379e-06
19.0  0.062500  62.038495  1.833801e-06
20.0 -0.010292  62.073719  3.385223e-06
21.0  0.074467  63.924063  3.196543e-06
22.0  0.124962  69.152771  8.984832e-07
23.0  0.093170  72.069532  5.802915e-07
24.0 -0.082149  74.345042  4.715786e-07
25.0  0.015689  74.428332  8.294018e-07
26.0 -0.025049  74.641400  1.367992e-06
27.0 -0.125875  80.040874  3.722921e-07
28.0  0.053215  81.009318  4.717356e-07
29.0 -0.038699  81.523324  6.917766e-07
30.0 -0.016896  81.621648  1.151883e-06
31.0 -0.019286  81.750227  1.869202e-06
32.0  0.105001  85.575148  8.927709e-07
33.0  0.040094  86.134872  1.247384e-06
34.0  0.008834  86.162142  2.047606e-06
35.0  0.014588  86.236784  3.263459e-06
36.0 -0.119334  91.249666  1.084187e-06
37.0 -0.036673  91.724837  1.521456e-06
38.0 -0.046204  92.481862  1.937920e-06
39.0 -0.017775  92.594310  2.989370e-06
40.0 -0.006219  92.608126  4.694971e-06

This indicates a lack of fit.

In-sample dynamic prediction. How good does our model do?

[21]:

predict_sunspots = arma_mod30.predict(start='1990', end='2012', dynamic=True)

[22]:

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8))
dta.loc['1950':].plot(ax=ax)
predict_sunspots.plot(ax=ax, style='r');

[23]:

def mean_forecast_err(y, yhat):
    return y.sub(yhat).mean()

[24]:

mean_forecast_err(dta.SUNACTIVITY, predict_sunspots)

[24]:

5.6355501027231325

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              © Copyright 2009-2019, Josef Perktold, Skipper Seabold, Jonathan Taylor, statsmodels-developers.

            Last updated on
              Feb 21, 2020.

            Created using
            Sphinx 2.4.2.
             and
            Material for
              Sphinx

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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We would like to thank the staff and pupils at Beamont Collegiate Academy for an insightful visit on the 22nd January (2019), allowing us to meet Year 10 pupils to discuss their career aspirations. Working with a social enterprise, Bryanston Square Foundation, a group of 12 students have been introduced to senior leaders from different organizations in London and then yesterday met with 6 Warrington based professionals.
Each pupil spoke individually with the different professionals for about four minutes, in an informal interview style format, discussing their current studies and career aspirations. It was a privilege to meet the pupils, all of whom were confident, polite, engaged and a real credit to their school. We wish them all the best in their future careers.
If you're interested in pursuing a career with Fiona Bruce Solicitors, please visit our careers page.


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text:
Increasing the market for LNG and renewable natural gas
March 22, 2017 Leave a Comment Written by DELCommInc
The Government of British Columbia is taking action under the Climate Leadership Plan to support investments by natural gas utilities that will increase the use of LNG and renewable natural gas in the transportation, marine and other sectors and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
"We're working with utilities to stimulate the use of LNG as a marine fuel in large, ocean-going ships, and to increase the supply and use of renewable natural gas," said Energy and Mines Minister Bill Bennett. "Building the market for B.C.'s abundant supplies of natural gas offers the opportunity to achieve significant GHG emissions reductions and supports jobs and economic opportunities in British Columbia's natural gas sector."
Amendments to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Regulation (GGRR) under the Clean Energy Act will enable utilities to increase incentives provided to shipping companies for the conversion of vessels to run on LNG, invest in LNG bunkering (marine fuelling) infrastructure, and increase the supply and use of renewable natural gas (RNG).
Programs under the GGRR are funded by the utility, not the Province. The amendments are enabling only, and set the parameters for potential utility programs and investments that will reduce GHG emissions.
"We are creating market opportunities for British Columbia's natural gas sector, offering utilities flexibility to create new incentive programs so we can continue to build a strong economy and a cleaner future," said Deputy Premier and Minister of Natural Gas Development Rich Coleman.
Converting just one ocean-going tanker, cruise ship, or container ship to run on LNG instead of heavy fuel oil will reduce GHG emissions by about 93,500 tonnes per year, equivalent to taking over 19,800 vehicles off the road. Utility investments in LNG fuelling infrastructure will help establish B.C. as a marine bunkering centre on the west coast capable of providing LNG to an increasing number of LNG vessels and leading to global reductions in GHG emissions.
RNG is derived from biogas created when organic waste decomposes at landfills, agricultural and forestry waste sites and wastewater treatment facilities. Although conventional natural gas has 25 per cent less carbon than diesel fuel and 25-39 per cent less than typical marine fuels, RNG is considered carbon neutral. Increased use of RNG could result in up to 450,000 tonnes of GHG reductions per year in B.C., and will also help build the market for biogas, providing economic opportunities for local governments and farming and forestry operations.
Amendments to the GGRR will allow utilities to double the incentives available to convert vehicles and marine vessels to natural gas when the new incentives go towards vehicles using 100 per cent RNG, and enable utilities to recover the costs of acquiring and distributing RNG in rates.
RNG can be used interchangeably with conventional natural gas and easily injected into the natural gas system, so the demand potential for renewable gas and the related GHG emissions reductions are significant.
"The provincial government's leadership allows FortisBC to build upon existing programs supporting the natural gas for transportation and renewable natural gas sectors," said Michael Mulcahy, president and CEO of FortisBC. "LNG for marine vessels ensures the international marine shipping industry has a cost-effective, clean-burning fuel with which to meet international emissions standards. Encouraging the development of renewable natural gas provides additional business opportunities for local waste producers, such as farms, landfills and wastewater treatment plants. These initiatives not only benefit our customers by optimizing our natural gas system year-round, they benefit all British Columbians by lowering operating costs for businesses and by reducing carbon emissions in our air."
The GGRR was introduced in 2012 and already allows utilities to provide incentives for compressed natural gas and LNG in the transportation and marine sectors to reduce GHG emissions. The amendments increase the allowed expenditure limits and expand coverage of the regulation to include investments related to RNG.
"Natural gas is a clean and affordable source of energy and the use of RNG in British Columbia is a win for the local economy and the environment," said Pacific Northern Gas (PNG) president Leigh Ann Shoji-Lee. "PNG is proud to be working with the Province, Skeena Sawmills, G4 Insights and the community to advance the supply and use of RNG. We are committed to advancing natural gas in the communities we serve and will continue to be an active partner with the B.C. government to achieve B.C.'s GHG reduction targets."
Increased through-put on the natural gas storage and distribution system from LNG sales means that fixed costs are shared among more customers, thereby reducing pressure on rates for all customers.
affordable, BC, British, clean, Climate, Columbia, economy, emission, gas, Government, investment, Leadership, marine, natural, Plan, rate, reduce, reduction, renewable, source, utility, vehicle
Meyer's Group orders two Damen ASD 2913 Tugs for new Panama Canal locks
Integration of hydrographic data management and chart production


Manufactured in Paris by Duvelleroy. Silk, mother-of-pearl, paint, sequins. Gift of Lorraine Goodrich MacDermott.
A granddaughter of brewery founder Frederick Pabst, Lorraine MacDermott (1893-1977) used this exquisite fan while she lived in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. She may have bought it from a Chicago shop selling Duvelleroy fans. The firm of Duvelleroy, known for its exceptional fan painting, had begun making fans in 1827, and by the late 19th century had an extensive international export business in North and South America.
Many Duvelleroy fans echoed those made in the 18th century, when love and lovers were popular themes for fans. Lorraine's fan depicts lovers looking at a statue of the Greek love goddess, Aphrodite. The love theme is reinforced with Cupid's quiver of arrows shown on either side, with one arrow placed strategically in the bull's eye.
Cardstock, brass, wood. Gift of Walter L. Haight.
The confidant surfer depicted on this broad leaf-shaped fan indicates this fan was probably made near the Pacific Ocean.
After almost disappearing, surfing experienced a revival during the first years of the 20th century. Hawaiians in the Waikiki area were the first to take up the surfboard again. At the time, Waikiki was becoming an important tourist destination, and surfing came to California in 1907.
Though we do not know the history of this fan, it may have been a Hawaiian or Californian tourist souvenir.
Donor Walter Haight did not visit these locations, but his in-laws, James L. and Elizabeth V. Foley of Wauwatosa, Wisconsin, traveled extensively around the United States. They may have visited Hawaii or California and brought back the fan as a souvenir for their daughter and son-in-law.
Manufactured in China. Silk, ivory. Gift of Frederica McBain Zdanowicz.
Frederica Zdanowicz (1902-1992) of Madison, Wisconsin received this fan as a gift from friends who had purchased it at an antique store in Spain. The fan appears to have been made in China for export to Spain.
Manufactured in France. Paper, ivory. Gift of Frederica McBain Zdanowicz.
University of Wisconsin professor Casimir D. Zdanowicz (1883-1953) probably purchased this fan at an antique store in Paris in 1907. It represents the most popular form of fan from the mid-19th century, with its elaborate, gilded ivory sticks and lithographed and hand-watercolored images of people from the 18th century. Like some of the best fans from this time period, it was decorated on both sides.
Celluloid, ribbon, paint. Gift of Mary J. and Charles Kendall Adams.
Mary J. (Matthews) Smith Barnes (1840-1902) purchased this fan in Europe, perhaps at the time of her July 9, 1890 wedding to third husband, Cornell University president Charles Kendall Adams, in London, England. Two years later Charles Kendall Adams became president of the University of Wisconsin.
Paper, ivory, feathers, glass. Gift of Mrs. F.A. Kartak.
This fan was brought from Paris, France to Waukesha, Wisconsin in 1863. The reason for the embossed golden wheat image is not known, but historically the wheat motif symbolized the "golden wealth" provided by Mother Earth. The fan's mirror made it possible for its owner to see discretely who was behind her.
Goose feathers, wood, paint. Gift of Jessie Knapp.
This fan probably belonged to Jessie (Thomas) Knapp (b. 1855) of Menomonie, Wisconsin.


text:
North by Northwestern
Too Afraid To Ask: The serious implications of Biden's impeachment charge
Elana Laski,
While President Joe Biden went straight to work on his first day in office, so too did his adversaries. Only 28 hours after Biden took office, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) announced via Twitter that she had already filed articles of impeachment against the new president based on actions he allegedly took as Vice President that would make him a "threat to national security."
Northwestern political science professor Laurel Harbridge-Yong explained that the articles of impeachment are rooted in "long-running conservative speculations." They claim Biden used his power as Vice President to make deals with foreign governments that benefited himself and his son, Hunter Biden. These allegations have been used against Biden since the election cycle, Harbridge-Yong said, despite Senate Republicans investigating these claims and finding "no evidence of wrongdoing."
These articles of impeachment are more position-taking than an actual threat against Biden, Harbridge-Yong explained. They may not even be brought to a vote, considering the Democrat-led House Judiciary Committee decides whether Congress will pursue the articles.
Impeachment attempts against Biden so early after his inauguration may have been motivated by the immediate partisan divide following the insurrection attempt on Jan. 6. After the fleeting moment of unity in Congress condemning insurrectionists, disagreements over the necessity and validity of impeaching Trump have become polarizing for politicians.
Most of the House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump have faced backlash from the GOP, including being censured, or formally disapproved. Many Republicans see Trump's impeachment as hypocritical considering Biden's calls for unity, Harbridge-Yong explained, but Democrats argue there cannot be unity until there is accountability.
Harbridge-Yong worries the characterization of Trump's impeachments by the right-wing media and Rep. Greene's baseless impeachment charge against Biden will turn impeachment into "a partisan tool" instead of an institutional check on the executive branch. She warns that this might create concerning rhetoric over the distinction between high crimes and misdemeanors worthy of impeachment and messy political maneuvering by opposing sides.
Exaggerating the partisan divide in Congress, the articles of impeachment against Biden reflect a concerning reality for American politics: the influence of Trumpism on the Republican party. Trump's stronghold over the Republican agenda has been so successful that immediately following the insurrection inspired by his intentional spread of misinformation, 147 Republican Congressmen voted to overturn the election.
Among these voters is the representative who filed the articles of impeachment against Biden, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Greene has been an extremely outspoken and controversial figure, especially on social media. The Georgia representative has liked multiple posts regarding killing Democratic politicians, including one that suggested putting "a bullet to the head" of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and another asking when they could hang former president Barack Obama (to which she replied that the "stage is being set" and "We must be patient"). She was also temporarily banned from Twitter for claiming that results from the Georgia Senate election and the presidential election were fraudulent, even though this was the same election cycle that she herself was elected in.
Greene also supports the falsehoods that the 9/11 attacks and the Sandy Hook shooting were staged. In line with these beliefs, Greene harassed David Hoggs, a survivor of the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, about his support for gun regulation. She also has made derogatory comments about people who are Black, Muslim, and Jewish.
Greene is most (in)famous for her strong support of QAnon, a conspiracy theory that Donald Trump is going to declare war on and expose countless powerful Americans as "Satan-worshipping pedophiles." This conspiracy is rather dangerous, with many of its followers being among the rioters who stormed the Capitol.
Based on Greene's provocative and dangerous behavior, Congressional Democrats have called for her expulsion. While it is unlikely the House will reach the two-thirds vote needed to expel Greene, many Democrats are demanding she face consequences for her actions. California Rep. Jimmy Gomez has already started to draft a resolution to expel her.
Rep. Cori Bush shared her agreement with this proposition on Twitter, advocating for the expulsions of all members who helped incite the insurrection. In her Tweet, Rep. Bush also stated that she plans on moving her office away from Greene's after she and her staff masklessly harassed Bush in the hallway.
A maskless Marjorie Taylor Greene & her staff berated me in a hallway. She targeted me & others on social media.
I'm moving my office away from hers for my team's safety.
I've called for the expulsion of members who incited the insurrection from Day 1. Bring H.Res 25 to a vote.
— Cori Bush (@CoriBush) January 29, 2021
Though arguably the most well-known right-wing extremist, Greene is far from alone in her perpetuation of Trumpism in Washington. Fellow QAnon supporter and House representative Lauren Boebert has faced similar backlash after tweeting Nancy Pelosi's location during the Capitol riots. Equally concerning, Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Mo Brooks have been identified as planners of the insurrection by one of its organizers.
(Editor's Note: Rep. Biggs's Deputy Chief of Staff denies the allegations against Rep. Biggs, and the video accusing all three representatives has since been deleted. This article has been updated from its original version to include this information.)
These behaviors all support Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's claim that the allegiance some Republicans used to have for Trump is now being directed toward white supremacists.
The articles of impeachment filed against Biden represent something larger than one politician's disdain for the new president; they represent a deepening and stark divide within the ideology of the nation. Instead of traditional disagreements over beliefs, America faces a political environment so polarized that members of one political party feel physically unsafe with some members of the other.
"My understanding of these articles of impeachment," Harbridge-Yong said, is that they are "contributing to the kind of alternative facts and alternate realities that members of the two parties seem to exist in these days, in terms of working off of very different versions of what they see as the truth."
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We're tallying up the results of this year's Bobolink Project, and the numbers look great! The Project protected 932 acres of nesting habitat, up from 512 acres in 2016 (which was the project's first year at Mass Audubon). Field surveys showed 368 pairs of Bobolinks on participating farmers' land. Since Bobolinks fledge an average of 2.79 chicks every season, this translates to saving an estimated 1,027 Bobolinks—many of which may return to nest again next year!
Bobolinks rely on grasslands to breed, and often find that hayfields work just as well. Until the mid-20th century, many hayfields were mowed in late summer, weeks after Bobolink chicks had left the nest. Now, high demand for livestock feed means that farmers are mowing earlier and earlier; early-cut hay is richer in protein and more valuable. Sadly, this means that many Bobolink nestlings end up under the mower.
Every year, Mass Audubon offers farmers compensation for waiting to mow their hayfields until after nesting season. This model has so far proved effective: plenty of farmers would rather not mow over active bird nests, but need their hayfields to produce some source of income. Mass Audubon uses donations to cover these farmers' losses from delaying mowing, keeping their farms economically viable while protecting grassland birds.
Even with increased donations, the number of interested farmers is outpacing available funds. This year, we had enough funds to protect two thirds of project applicants' land. We also had to leave an additional 492 acres of Bobolink habitat on the table. Sadly, this funding gap meant that most fledglings on the unprotected acreage didn't make it.
While it may not be possible to prevent every single agriculture-related Bobolink death across the region, it is painful to have to turn away farmers who want to partner with us to protect birds.
If you'd like to help us protect even more acres and Bobolinks next year, please donate here!
This entry was posted in Grassland Birds and tagged bobolink conservation, Bobolink Project, grassland bird conservation, grassland birds on September 6, 2018 by William Freedberg.
Please be aware that Belle Isle Marsh in East Boston/Winthrop has had successful Bobolink nesting and fledging! Despite the onslaught of jets overhead, the birds have enjoyed the expansive meadow we maintain for them there.
That's wonderful news, Lorene! Thank you for sharing this with us and for maintaining the meadow for the Bobolinks and other creatures.
Is it possible for farmers to apply for The Bobolink Project for 2019? How does one go about this? We hay approximately 50 acres in western MA.
Hi Julie! The application process for the 2019 Bobolink Project will open in early January 2019. If you join our Bobolink Project e-newsletter list on the website, you'll receive notice of exactly when it opens. We look forward to seeing your application next year. Thank you for your interest in protecting Bobolinks on your fields!
Hi Julie! The application process for the 2019 Bobolink Project season will open in early January 2019. If you sign up for our Bobolink Project e-newsletter on the website, you'll be notified when it opens. We look forward to seeing your application. Thank you for your interest in protecting Bobolinks on your fields!


This is the most real & wonderful message for those who have become very weary & even discouraged to the point of giving up! Larry tells in a hilarious but very compassionate & honest way of some of the very difficult struggles he had for many years (whilst ministering the gospel) & how he's finally come to understand certain things so he can overcome instead of being overcome & giving up! Larry jokes a lot, so he says some things 'tongue-in cheek' presuming you know he is joking!
Whoever downloaded this message to youtube downloaded only 5 of the 6 parts they eventually divided it into. I am so glad they did, because otherwise i would never have heard this & known it was there to download the mp3 for myself for only a few dollars!
NOTE: This Video is made up of 6 PARTS of approx 14mins each. As each of the 5 of the 6 parts end, wait just a few seconds & the next part will begin automatically!!!!!!
Only 5 of the 6 parts of this message were downloaded to youtube by someone, but if you just listened to the other 5 parts & want to hear the rest & bless Larry Randolph's ministry, then do what I did & buy the message from Larry Randolph's website as one of a 2-set mp3 download titled "Breaking through the Dead Zone" for only $7.


for dangerous criminals, which he did not serve.
man sleep, so I must lie awake the most of the night thinking of you.
But where go we now?"
"Only the Moors wear veils, Peter, and now we are Christians again.
planned, and Betty is married to the marquis."
had you not? No, don't be angry with me. Do you know what Betty did?"
young women look very much alike in a half-lit room----"
thought of it makes me ill."


text:
BIX peut faire référence à :
 BIX, un groupe de rock de Lituanie ;
  ;
 , un service commercial en ligne du milieu des années 1980 proposé par le magazine Byte.

Bix peut faire référence à :
 Bix Beiderbecke (1903-1931), un cornettiste et pianiste de jazz américain ;
 BiX Software, un éditeur de logiciels français en Business Intelligence ;
 Bix, un film réalisé par Pupi Avati.


Summer Walker announced earlier today she was releasing the official remix to her popular single "Girls Need Love" with a big, guest feature from Drizzy Drake — and she delivers on her promise. Stream the official audio below now.
Hoodrich Pablo Juan enlists Guwop and NAV for his new single titled "Shoebox" produced by Zaytoven. Tune in below.
Rising East Atlanta artist Cam The Artisan comes through with his debut full-length project titled "HUES." The 12-track album is a very honest, self-reflecting body of work and marks the first steps in a very promising year. Take a listen below and everywhere digital.
Popcaan revisits last month's "Forever" project and serves up the official video for "Firm And Strong." Watch below. Directed by Nabil.
Ace Hood issues another single off his upcoming project "Body Bag 5." Stream "We Ball" below.
The gorgeous India Love releases the official video to her will.i.am-assisted single "#Pretty" directed by Shadae Lamar Smith. Tune in below.
Soulja continues to rack in new music for fans and today is a back with the official remix to his single "HML" featuring Tory Lanez. He also continues to take shots at Tyga, releasing "What's A Tyga To A Lion." Stream both below.
As promised, T-Pain unleashes his new album titled "1UP." The LP includes 12 songs with features from Lil Wayne, Tory Lanez, Russ and many more. Check it out below.