text:
Is vitamin D deficiency important in the natural history of COPD?
J K Quint,
J A Wedzicha
Academic Unit of Respiratory Medicine, University College London, UK
Correspondence to Dr JK Quint, University College London, Department of Academic Respiratory Medicine, Royal Free Hospital, Rowland Hill Street, London NW3 2QG, UK; j.quint{at}medsch.ucl.ac.uk
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thx.2009.129619
COPD mechanisms.
Vitamin D consists of a group of fat-soluble prohormones, the most important of which are vitamin D2 and D3, with measurement of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) closely representing a person's vitamin D2 and D3 status. D2 (ergocalciferol) is plant and fungal derived, while vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) is made from 7-dehydrocholesterol in the skin. This conversion of 7-dehydrocholesterol to previtamin D3 is governed by both the intensity and appropriate wavelength of the ultraviolet (UV) B irradiation reaching 7-dehydrocholesterol. Adequate amounts of vitamin D3 can be made in the skin after only 10–15 min of sun exposure at least twice a week without sunscreen. However, with longer exposure to UVB rays, equilibrium is achieved in the skin and the vitamin degrades as fast as it is generated. Serum concentrations of vitamin D have been found to vary with age, race, sex, season and geographic location, and subclinical deficiency is common, particularly in temperate climates.1
Once in its physiologically active form vitamin D is released into the circulation, binds to a carrier protein in the plasma (vitamin D-binding protein (DBP)) and is transported to various target organs. The hormonally active form of vitamin D mediates its biological effects by binding to the vitamin D receptor (VDR), which is principally located in the nuclei of target cells. This VDR is constitutively expressed in monocytes, activated macrophages, dendritic cells, natural killer cells, and T and B cells. Activation has potent antiproliferative, prodifferentiative and immunomodulatory functions; both immune enhancing and immunosuppressive.2 It is these immunomodulatory properties of vitamin D that have particularly attracted interest in recent years with regards to chronic and autoimmune diseases and susceptibility to infection.
Deficiency in vitamin D results from a number of causes, including insufficient intake coupled with inadequate sunlight exposure, from disorders that limit its absorption, hereditary disorders and conditions that impair conversion into active metabolites. For a long time it has been known that deficiency leads to rickets, osteomalacia and osteoporosis, but more recently it has been linked with colon cancer, breast cancer, higher risk of heart attack in men, and an increased risk of infections, for example influenza, tuberculosis (TB) and pneumonia.3 It has even been proposed that in autoimmune disorders vitamin D deficiency arises from chronic infection with intracellular bacteria that dysregulate vitamin D metabolism by causing VDR dysfunction. This VDR dysfunction is thought to cause a decline in innate immune function that increases susceptibility to additional infections contributing to disease progression.4
However, what actually constitutes the degree of vitamin D deficiency, particularly in the context of its immunomodulatory properties, is highly debated. In terms of calcaemic effects, levels <50 nmol/l are probably deficient,3 5 whereas levels may need to be even lower for parathyroid insufficiency. With regards to the immunomodulatory mechanisms of vitamin D it has even been suggested that levels >100 nmol/l are needed for optimal immune functioning.
So does vitamin D deficiency have a role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)? In this issue of Thorax (see page 215), Janssens and colleagues report that vitamin D deficiency is more common in patients with COPD, that this deficiency correlates with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and that vitamin D levels decrease with increasing disease severity.6 They have defined deficiency in COPD as levels <20 ng/ml (conversion factor 2.5 for nmol/l). A strong relationship has been shown previously between pulmonary function and serum vitamin D levels independently of a diagnosis of COPD,7 with deficiency associated with lower FEV1. It is difficult to establish the cause and effect in this situation, particularly within the COPD population.
Maternal vitamin D in pregnancy has been associated with asthma symptoms in childhood,8 9 and prenatal vitamin D deficiency is thought to affect fetal lung and immune system development. Thus it is possible that vitamin D deficiency early on in life predisposes individuals to a lower FEV1. Studies in asthma linking low vitamin D levels with disease severity have postulated that the relationship may be secondary to diet and time spent indoors, which in themselves are influenced by a diagnosis of asthma.10 This is also likely to be important in COPD; we know that patients with more severe COPD spend less time outdoors11 and these patients are therefore less likely to be exposed to sunlight and subsequently have lower vitamin D levels. So is vitamin D deficiency just a marker of disease severity rather than a contributing factor? Surely if this is all there is to it, patients with COPD living in the tropics should have milder disease and fewer exacerbations.
The authors also report that genetic variants in the vitamin D-binding gene correlate significantly with vitamin D levels, and suggest that individuals with COPD carrying two T alleles of the rs7041 variant are at particularly high risk for vitamin D deficiency. Other genetic variants in the vitamin D pathway have also been associated with COPD. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the DBP has been shown to be protective for COPD,12 and some of the SNPs in the DBP influence circulating vitamin D levels.13 Many polymorphisms also exist in the VDR gene, and the influence of these polymorphisms on VDR protein function may influence immunomodulatory responses.14 To date no study has found a link with VDR polymorphisms and airway infection in COPD, although these polymorphisms have been linked with TB. FokI common variants and BsmI polymorphisms have been associated with muscle strength in COPD.15
Perhaps vitamin D deficiency in COPD is more important with relation to exacerbation risk, and this is how it influences disease severity. We know that exacerbations increase the rate of FEV1 decline,16 so it is possible that those with lower vitamin D levels have more exacerbations and subsequently worse disease. Certainly data are available suggesting that the seasonality of influenza (and possibly other viruses) is related to sunlight exposure and consequently vitamin D levels.17 Viral host defence is complex, involving both innate and acquired immunity; however, we may be closer to establishing markers of viral COPD exacerbations.18 Vitamin D modulates macrophage response by preventing the release of too many cytokines and chemokines,19 20 and it also prevents macrophage maturation.21 22 Multiple studies have linked vitamin D deficiency with TB,23–25 though supplementation studies have shown mixed results.26 27 Several studies have also linked VDR polymorphisms and infection. A study in young Canadian children found the FokI polymorphism to be strongly associated with respiratory syncitial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis.28 Although the f allele encodes a less active VDR and may affect the host's ability to use vitamin D for antimicrobial activities or inflammatory regulation, it has been postulated that higher circulating vitamin D levels could overcome this hypofunctionality. In fact there are several mechanisms by which activated vitamin D binding to the VDR could modulate viral lower respiratory tract disease, including downregulation of the Toll-like receptor 429 to which RSV binds, suppression of T cell proliferation,30 tumour necrosis factor α (TNFα) synthesis29 or stimulation of the production of an antimicrobial host protein.31
Therefore, increasing vitamin D levels into an "optimal range" in COPD may be of benefit on several levels; it may reduce bacterial load at exacerbation and airway bacterial colonisation, influence susceptibility to virus infection or even reduce the rate of FEV1 decline. Certainly as the authors of this article suggest, the next step in establishing the importance of vitamin D deficiency in COPD is to study supplementation in adequately powered clinical trials using relevant clinical outcomes. However, there is much still to be learnt about the role of vitamin D in COPD, and the mechanisms by which increasing vitamin D levels into the normal range would influence the natural history of COPD is far from being determined.
Janssens W,
Lehouck A,
Carremans C,
. Vitamin D beyond bones in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: time to act. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2009;179:630–6.
Mora JR,
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von Andrian UH
. Vitamin effects on the immune system: vitamins A and D take centre stage. Nat Rev Immunol 2008;8:685–98.
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. Vitamin D deficiency. N Engl J Med 2007;357:266–81.
Waterhouse JC,
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. Reversing bacteria-induced vitamin D receptor dysfunction is key to autoimmune disease. Ann NY Acad Sci 2009;1173:757–65.
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Bouillon R,
Whiting SJ,
. 13th Workshop consensus for vitamin D nutritional guidelines. J Steroid Biochem Mol Biol 2007;103:204–5.
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Black PN,
Scragg R
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Rifas-Shiman SL,
Litonjua AA,
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. Infant vitamin D supplementation and allergic conditions in adulthood: Northern Finland birth cohort 1966. Ann NY Acad Sci 2004;1037:84–95.
Brehm JM,
Celedón JC,
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. Serum vitamin D levels and markers of severity of childhood asthma in Costa Rica. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2009;179:765–71.
Donaldson GC,
Wilkinson TMA,
Hurst JR,
. Exacerbations and time spent outdoors in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2005;171:446–52.
Schellenberg D,
Pare PD,
Weir TD,
. Vitamin D binding protein variants and the risk of COPD. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1998;157:957–61.
Lauridsen AL,
Vestergaard P,
Hermann AP,
. Plasma concentrations of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D and 1,25-dihydroxy-vitamin D are related to the phenotype of Gc (vitamin D-binding protein): a cross-sectional study on 595 early postmenopausal women. Calcif Tissue Int 2005;77:15–22.
Uitterlinden AG,
Fang Y,
Van Meurs JB,
. Genetics and biology of vitamin D receptor polymorphisms. Gene 2004;338:143–56.
Hopkinson NS,
Li KW,
Kehoe A,
. Vitamin D receptor genotypes influence quadriceps strength in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Am J Clin Nutr 2008;87:385–90.
Seemungal TAR,
Bhowmik A,
. Relationship between exacerbation frequency and lung function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Thorax 2002;57:847–52.
Hope-Simpson RE
. The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza. J Hyg (Lond) 1981;86:35–47.
Quint JK,
Goldring JJP,
. Serum IP-10 as a biomarker of human rhinovirus infection at exacerbation of COPD. Chest. Published Online First: 16 October 2009. doi:10.1378/chest.09-1541.
Hewison M,
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Chakraverty R,
. Vitamin D and barrier function: a novel role for extra-renal 1 alpha-hydroxylase. Mol Cell Endocrinol 2004;215:31–8.
Helming L,
Böse J,
Ehrchen J,
. 1alpha,25-Dihydroxyvitamin D3 is a potent suppressor of interferon gamma-mediated macrophage activation. Blood 2005;106:4351–8.
Abu-Amer Y,
Bar-Shavit Z
. Impaired bone marrow-derived macrophage differentiation in vitamin D deficiency. Cell Immunol 1993;151:356–68.
Cohen MS,
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Snipes RG,
. 1,25-Dihydroxyvitamin D3 activates secretion of hydrogen peroxide by human monocytes. J Immunol 1986;136:1049–53.
Grange JM,
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Brown RC,
. A study of vitamin D levels in Indonesian patients with untreated pulmonary tuberculosis. Tubercle 1985;66:187–91.
Nnoaham KE,
Clarke A
. Low serum vitamin D levels and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Epidemiol 2008;37:113–19.
Gibney KB,
MacGregor L,
Leder K,
. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis infection in immigrants from Sub-Saharan Africa. Clin Infect Dis 2008;46:443–6.
Martineau AR,
Wilkinson RJ,
Wilkinson KA,
. A single dose of vitamin D enhances immunity to mycobacteria. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2007;176:208–13.
Wejse C,
Gomes VF,
Rabna P,
. Vitamin D as supplementary treatment for tuberculosis: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2009;179:843–50.
Roth DE,
Jones AB,
Prosser C,
. Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and the risk of acute lower respiratory tract infection in early childhood. J Infect Dis 2008;197:676–80.
Sadeghi K,
Wessner B,
Laggner U,
. Vitamin D3 down-regulates monocyte TLR expression and triggers hyporesponsiveness to pathogen associated molecular patterns. Eur J Immunol 2006;36:361–70.
Bhalla AK,
Amento EP,
Krane SM
. Differential effects of 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D3 on human lymphocytes and monocyte/macrophages: inhibition of interleukin 2 and augmentation of interleukin1 production. Cell Immunol 1986;98:311–22.
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. Toll-like receptor triggering of a vitamin D-mediated human antimicrobial response. Science 2006;311:1770–3.
Linked articles 120659.
Competing interests None.
Provenance and peer review Commissioned; not externally peer reviewed.
© 2010, Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited For permission to use, (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent in COPD and correlates with variants in the vitamin D-binding gene
Wim Janssens Roger Bouillon Bart Claes Claudia Carremans An Lehouck Ian Buysschaert Johan Coolen Chantal Mathieu Marc Decramer Diether Lambrechts
Thorax 2009; 65 215-220 Published Online First: 08 Dec 2009. doi: 10.1136/thx.2009.120659


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text:
The end of engagement
Originally published: Qiao Collective (October 14, 2020 ) | - Posted Oct 17, 2020
Empire, Globalization, Imperialism, StrategyChina, United StatesNewswire
The United States has declared the end of "business as usual" in U.S.-China relations. The escalation of recent months marks a bipartisan consensus: that the strategy of fostering political dependency through China's economic integration into a U.S.-led world-system has failed.
As China's rise exceeds the predetermined boundaries of the era of engagement, the U.S. turn to hybrid war makes clear that containment and engagement are flip sides of the same imperial agenda: the subjugation of Chinese sovereignty to U.S. interests.
In November of 1967, just months before announcing his entrance into the 1968 presidential race, Richard Nixon outlined in Foreign Affairs what would become a north star for Washington's orientation towards China for the next half-century.
In an article titled "Asia after Viet Nam," Nixon argued that the war in Vietnam had so occupied the minds of U.S. policymakers that it eclipsed the bigger picture. Vietnam—a small country on the rim of a vast continent—might have "filled the screen of our minds," Nixon wrote, "but it does not fill the map." The real white whale, the behemoth to be both feared and desired, was China.
"Red China," Nixon argued, was too large a chunk of the world to remain isolated forever. The U.S. could not "afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations." Preaching a path of "containment without isolation," Nixon portended the defining U.S. strategy toward China for the next fifty years: wielding the carrot of integration into the "family of nations" and global trade alongside the stick of a militarized, industrialized U.S.-Pacific bloc. Such measures, in Nixon's view, would be enough to "induce change…to persuade China that it must change."
It is these final words—induce change—that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lingered on while discussing recent turns in U.S.-China relations during a July speech at the Nixon Library in Orange County, California. Offering a critical assessment of the era of engagement Nixon began, Pompeo described Nixon's premiere foreign policy achievement as a noble but ultimately naive exercise, setting the stage for decades of "blind engagement" that, rather than inducing change, propped up a "Frankenstein" China that perpetually deferred Washington's hopes for an inevitable liberalization.
Pompeo's was just one of several July speeches given by Trump administration officials who declared the end of "business as usual" and touted the administration's "tough on China" record. Where prolonged trade negotiations begun in 2018 were premised on the notion that China could be cajoled once and for all into compliance with U.S. economic hegemony, this recent slate of speeches have sent a very different message. As Pompeo put it: "We can't treat this incarnation of China as a normal country, just like any other."
Indeed, in recent months and years the Trump administration has taken to treating China less like a troublesome rival and more like the "strategic competitor" identified in the Trump administration's 2017 national security strategy document. The arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada in 2018; the designation of Chinese journalists as "foreign missions"; the pending bans on TikTok and WeChat; the scrutiny and surveillance of overseas Chinese students and scientists; the sanctioning of Chinese officials and companies operating in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea; and finally, the forced closure of the Houston Chinese consulate—the city which famously hosted Deng Xiaoping during his historic 1979 visit to the United States—all represent a dense timeline of the U.S.-imposed escalation of U.S.-China relations under Donald Trump's short tenure.
Where Nixon sought a strategic integration of China into the "family of nations"—a universalizing euphemism for the Western-led capitalist world order—the Trump administration is drawing new lines of containment to stop the supposed invasion of China's Communist Party into U.S. cyberspace, supply chains, and spheres of influence. Indeed, while Nixon worried of an isolated China left to "nurture its fantasies [and] cherish its hates," a recurring sentiment in the summer speeches offered by Pompeo, NSA Security Advisor Robert O'Brien, Attorney General William Barr, and FBI Director Chris Wray is that the deep integration of China into the world order represents the true threat, having produced not China's liberalization but, as they argue, parasitism, subversion, and international acquiescence ("kowtowing," in the parlance of China hawks).
In Barr's words, the "many tentacles" of the Communist Party of China seek "to exploit the openness of our institutions in order to destroy them." Here, China's inevitable liberalization after integration into the world economy is turned on its head: as Pompeo put it: "If the free world doesn't change China, communist China will surely change us."
The crisis of Western liberalism, pressured on both sides by brewing separatist right-wing populist movements on the right and abolitionist movements against racial capitalism on the left, have undermined the triumphant "end of history" promised by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Compounded by the contradictions of a global pandemic which has been largely controlled by socialist states but led to prolonged, unabated outbreaks in much of the capitalist world, Western fears of a world order shaped by "Red China" reflect the untenable contradictions of liberalism and capitalism themselves.
The Terms of Engagement
Trumpian rhetoric on China's rise poses decades of U.S. state and corporate overtures to China as a twenty-first century appeasement program, in which U.S. profit-seeking and naivete undermined the firm hand required to effectively force change in China's political structure. NSA director Robert O'Brien described this new foreign policy truism as such: "The more we opened our markets to China, the thinking went, the more we invested capital in China, the more we trained PRC bureaucrats, scientists, engineers, and even military officers, the more China would become like us."
But the apparent dichotomy between engagement and containment elides the fact that both share the same imperialist agenda. If the U.S. has turned (or more accurately, returned) to hybrid war on China, it is a change in tactics rather than one of desired outcomes. For Washington strategists, real bilateralism premised on China's sovereignty and the legitimacy of its political and economic system has never been on the table.
Indeed, the shared "common sense" of both engagement and containment is a paternalistic, colonial attitude that the United States bears the right and the responsibility to "induce change" within China's system. There is no debate over the ends, only the means: whether by co-option or by force, this is a dispute over the proper tools necessary to provoke China's inevitable arrival at Western liberal-capitalist modernity.
A return to Washington's debates over China policy in the late-twentieth century clarifies the ideological continuity between the past five presidential administrations, demonstrating the extent to which American chauvinism, imperial grandeur, and Western universalism has defined a consistent outlook, if a shifting toolkit, driving U.S. strategy towards China.
Post-Nixon diplomacy realized an earlier strain of thought with regards to China. In a series of speeches in 1957-1958, U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles proposed "peaceful evolution" as a means to "shorten the expected life span of communism"—proposing ideas, lifestyle, and culture as the key fronts of an ideological war to subvert Chinese and Soviet communism. Yet the prospect of peaceful evolution worked in tandem with the reality of militarized containment. Stunned by their "loss of China," the U.S. foreign policy establishment took a harsh posture by establishing an international trade embargo on the newly-established People's Republic, waging hot war in Korea, and threatening nuclear brinkmanship during the First Taiwan Strait Crisis.
Those first decades after the establishment of the People's Republic marked an era of uncertainty, in which Washington diplomats struggled to reach consensus on how to deal with a communist China after pouring billions of dollars in military aid and loans to the Nationalist Guomindang. To the contrary, Nixon's detente—overdetermined by the geopolitical expediencies of the Cold War and the fallout of the Sino-Soviet split—heralded what Mike Pompeo describes as an "age of inevitability."
As Margaret Thatcher and an ascendent neoliberal ideology declared "There Is No Alternative" to the Western capitalist model, the horsemen of capitalist convergence had reason to be optimistic. The Soviet policy of perestroika—political and economic liberalization—had begun the corrosive process that would lead to its collapse. It was in this era that Dulles' notion of "peaceful evolution" resurfaced as a popular anxiety in Chinese political and intellectual circles. As Deng Xiaoping reflected in 1992, "The imperialists are pushing for peaceful evolution towards capitalism in China, placing their hopes on the generations that will come after us."
Deng had long recognized that reform and opening up had introduced material and ideological aspects of capitalism into China. In Deng's preferred metaphor, "opening the windows" to foreign capital brought fresh air as well as flies that must be fought. It was the firm hand of Party leadership which ensured the repression of capitalist elements and adherence to the socialist road. In particular, the Tiananmen protests of 1989 reflected the contradictions of reform and opening, making clear that the internalization of Western ideals of bourgeois liberalism on the part of the younger generations could spell the slow erosion of the socialist path.
It is in this context that Washington's debates over relations with China in the 1990s adapted Nixon's visions of China's induction into the "family of nations" into a neoliberal vision of integrating China into the ladder of global capital and consumption—with the U.S. at its head.
Annual legislation to renew China's most favored nation (MFN) trade status, which was made permanent in 2000, served as a recurring forum for debate over the efficacy of this influence-via-integration strategy. In a 1991 speech, George H.W. Bush invoked the "moral" reason for renewing MFN: "to export the ideals of freedom and democracy…to create a climate for democratic change."
Bush's optimism in the inevitability of regime collapse was no doubt informed by the looming dissolution of the Soviet Union after a half-decade of perestroika:
No nation on Earth has discovered a way to import the world's goods and services while stopping foreign ideas at the border. Just as the democratic idea has transformed nations on every continent, so, too, change will inevitably come to China.
The tautology of tandem economic and political liberalization speaks both to the neoliberal fervor of the moment and to the long history of liberalism's co-evolution with capitalism. Bush, like many others, linked "the cause of privatization and human rights" as one and the same. In classical liberal fashion, the right to private property and capital accumulation was posed as the fundamental right from which all other liberal political rights proceed. As Rep. Nancy Johnson (CT-R) put it while declaring her support for permanent MFN status in 2000: "When a Chinese realizes he has rights as an investor that government should not violate, the more likely he will also realize that he has other rights as a human being."
President Bill Clinton's case for China's entry into the World Trade Organization was the same. Citing the interests of evangelical missionaries alongside those of big business, Clinton argued that by joining the WTO, China was agreeing not just to import U.S. products, but also to "import one of democracy's most cherished values, economic freedom."
A truck transports a shipping container at a port in Zhangjiagang, China, on Aug. 7. [Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images]
These grandiose articulations of bourgeois "freedom" sugar-coated more pragmatic U.S. economic interests. A massive corporate lobby supporting MFN status for China framed the nation as an untapped market of "one billion customers." In a 1997 speech on "China and the National Interest," Clinton clearly linked "good jobs and higher incomes in our country" to the ability to make China a "magnet for our goods and services."
Prioritizing U.S. interests meant stipulations on China's integration: Clinton called for China to "dramatically improve access for foreign goods and services," to "[tear] down trade barriers," and to end favoritism and protectionism towards Chinese firms. That these same issues remain sticking points in the Trump administration's trade war speaks to Washington's consistent frustration that visions of free trade dependency remain stymied by China's efforts to retain economic sovereignty within a capitalist world-system.
Far from appeasement, U.S. orientations towards China were guided by a confidence in China's future as a dependency of Western capitalist power. Citing China's dependence on foreign investment, Clinton in 1997 remarked that China was then the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment in the world—"linkages," Clinton argued, that "bring with them powerful forces for change."
Yet some on the left ignore the clear U.S. colonial aspirations behind the era of engagement to paint China as a willing junior partner to U.S. empire, imposing a retroactive narrative of U.S.-Chinese ideological alignment in the latter half of the Cold War. Certainly, U.S.-China rapprochement was borne out of the geopolitical expediencies of the Cold War, in particular China's geopolitical and economic precarity following the Sino-Soviet split. But exaggerating the nature of an alignment of U.S.-China interests is to ignore the founding presuppositions of the U.S. engagement strategy: that Chinese engagement with the Western world order through trade, foreign direct investment, IMF loans, and ascension to international trade and diplomatic bodies would inevitably create the conditions for the erosion of Chinese sovereignty, socialism, and the leadership of the Communist Party itself. Far from ideological convergence, this era of engagement is more accurately described as the U.S. pursuit of regime change by other means.
Socialist development breaks the "Washington Consensus"
Much ink has been spilled describing China's "economic miracle" in the decades following the lifting of the U.S. trade embargo in 1972 and the conditional restoration of normal trade relations in 1979. In 1980, China's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita stood at $200. Today, that figure stands at over $10,000—meaning that the average Chinese person's material circumstances have improved 50 times over in the past 40 years.
While cold warriors paint today's China as a "Frankenstein" propped up by Western corporations and business interests depict China's rise as 'proof' of the superiority of capitalism, Chinese development cannot be chalked up to a supposed embrace of the Western capitalist model. First, the strides of the Mao era in advancing health, lifespan, and literacy formed the bedrock of the labor force that drove China's industrialization. Second, the nature of socialism with Chinese characteristics—namely restrictions on foreign control of critical industries, a decisive role of public industry, political control over capital rather than capitalist control of politics, and an emphasis on poverty alleviation—has rendered China one of the few developing nations to retain some semblance of political and economic independence amidst the introduction of Western capital.
China's strides in poverty alleviation—with more than 80 million people being lifted from poverty since 2012 alone—speak to the unique, people-centered nature of its political economy. In a world-historic testament to the success of the Chinese socialist model, absolute poverty is slated to be eradicated in 2020. Such feats distinguish China from the majority of developing nations, where GDP growth does not necessarily correspond with a rise in standard of living for those at the bottom.
Understanding Chinese development as a product of market socialism rather than of capitalist triumph helps to explain the frustrations of Western policymakers who for decades have sought to force China towards political dependency and destabilization via economic liberalization. It is no surprise, then, that the very measures through which the Communist Party has sought to safeguard its economic sovereignty and avoided the pitfalls of free trade dependency are the same policies which have been doggedly targeted through international trade forums and unilateral U.S. trade aggression.
The consistency of Western demands on the terms of China's economic engagement speak to the single mindedness of Western pursuits of financial domination over the fabled "El Dorado" of China's market. As China negotiated for entrance to the World Trade Organization by committing to bring down tariffs, reduce state trading, and open its critical service sectors to foreign investment, Western media heralded the "ultimate privatization" of China at the hands of Western corporations.
Yet where Clinton in 1997 envisaged the extinction of "state-owned dinosaurs" which allegedly could not compete in the global marketplace, as of 2020, 82 out of China's 119 Fortune 500 companies remain under state control. Barring the highly-anticipated collapse of China's state-owned "zombie economy," the imperialist powers have turned to the WTO as a trade polity bludgeon: between 2009 and 2015, 90% of WTO disputes amongst China, the U.S., Japan, and Germany have been taken up by the latter three against China. Most of these disputes hinge on attacking Chinese state involvement in the economy, from market caps on foreign ownership to state subsidies and state-owned enterprises.
To be sure, the influence of neoliberal ideals and a growth-oriented mindset which subsumed ideology under economics found significant footholds both in the Party and in Chinese civil society. But if the restructuring of some half of Chinese state-owned enterprises under Zhu Rongji between 1997 and 2003 marked the starkest lurch towards full privatization, China's market was never fully "opened" to imperialist monopolist power in the way of most other "emergent" countries. Amidst China's ascendance to the WTO in 2001, onlookers bemoaned that despite China's growth as an export-oriented economy, it remained only "shallowly integrated" into the world economy, with state ownership over state-owned critical industries such as banking, communications, and energy remaining "insulated from international competition." What Marxist economist Samir Amin called China's "partial and controlled" globalization, particularly state control over its banking systems, is at the core of China's fight for sovereignty within a capitalist world-system.
"Chimerica" as Imperial Parasitism
China's entrance to the WTO, and its subsequent accumulation of U.S. debt reserves, heralded what Western pundits came to term "Chimerica"—an economic beast which now makes up 40% of world GDP. Regarded both with awe and fear, the Western capitalist class relished the role of China's integration in suppressing the U.S. interest rate and subsidizing middle-class consumption with cheap imports. Yet economic nationalists were suspicious of the offshoring of manufacturing jobs and relinquishing of critical supply chains to Chinese control.
As the Trump administration attempts to sever the chimera under a new rhetoric of decoupling, these tendencies have found new relevance in recent re-appraisals of the two economies. On the one hand, narratives such as Newsweek's 2019 cover story "How America's Biggest Companies Made China Great Again" paint U.S.-China economic convergence as an American corporate bailout of an otherwise bloated and fading Chinese economy. On the other hand, U.S. reliance on Chinese supply chains has been painted as a dangerous economic and security threat—language emphasized amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, as China hawks such as Peter Navarro have insisted on a disastrous "American First" medical supply chain outside of ostensible Chinese control.
Yet neither framing captures the fundamental nature of the "Chimerica" relationship: one of imperialist parasitism. As mediated by the conferral of most favored nation trade status and WTO ascendance, the U.S.-China relationship is premised on an economic imbalance in which Western corporations reap the rewards of China's massive, low-cost workforce while inflating Western consumption through access to cheap imports. Under these terms of engagement, China has historically borne the brunt of the West's offshored resource extraction, dirty manufacturing, and waste exports. While decades of U.S. trade policy has decried a "trade imbalance" in China's favor, the U.S. advantage is quantifiable: between 1978 and 2018, on average, one hour of American work was exchanged for almost forty hours of Chinese work.
The ubiquity of "Made in China" consumer goods in the 2000s—along with the racialized connotation that such products were necessarily cheap, dirty, or fabricated—spoke to a U.S.-China economic relationship that boiled down to the maxim "China produces, the U.S. consumes." During the era of "open doors" and Opium Wars, British economist and critic of imperialism J.A. Hobson described the looming colonization of China as inevitably "draining the greatest potential reservoir of profit the world has ever known" in order to consume it in the West. The twenty-first century integration of China into the global capitalist economic system realized, in part, that age old imperial fantasy.
China's willingness to enter into such terms is often misconstrued as a sign of a Chinese ruling party that is communist in name alone, indicative of a Chinese 'state capitalism' which has hitched its wagon to the West's imperialist capitalist commerce. Yet, an understanding of socialism with Chinese characteristics situates Chinese engagement with Western capital instead as a fundamental bargain on the part of Party leadership. Since the 11th Central Committee plenaries between 1977 and 1982, the Party officially recognized the primary contradiction of Chinese society as "between the ever-growing material and cultural needs of the people and backward social production." In Deng's formulation, the fresh air of foreign investment, technology transfer, and productive advancement warranted the flies that inevitably came with it.
Controlled economic liberalization nonetheless created conditions for neoliberal thinking. An emphasis on economic growth arguably created a popular misunderstanding of the relationship between politics and economics, in what Wang Hui calls the "depoliticized politics" of the Deng era. Such thinking also coincided with pro-American ideology and a popular belief in the intertwined destinies of China and the United States. In the wake of the 2008 Western financial crisis, slogans such as "to save America is to save China" (救美国就是救中国) and "China-U.S. couple theory" (中美夫妻论) reflected China's perceived national interest in stabilizing the capitalist world economy from internal collapse, and the belief that ideological and political divergences between China and the Western capitalist world could be resolved by economic cooperation alone.
Such faith in the intertwined fates of China and the United States evinces a critical underestimation of the preconditions of economic cooperation. While cloaked in the fervor of Cold War ideology, U.S. aggression on China is also decidedly material. After all, the alignment of China's national development aspirations with the U.S. capitalist class's thirst for a massive, cheap labor supply was always conditional on China "knowing its place" in the global supply ladder.
In this light, recurring Western demands for market access, privatization, and an end to state economic planning function as attempts to constrain China's growth within the confines of a U.S. unipolar world. Chinese efforts to climb out of its predetermined role as the "world's factory" are thus necessarily interpreted as an existential challenge to U.S. hegemony. Beneath the financial jargon of tariffs, currency manipulation, and most favored nation trade status, U.S. stipulations on China's engagement in the world economy are fundamentally a question of imperialism, profit extraction, and economic sovereignty.
In fact, China's ongoing economic restructuring over the last decade is very much in recognition of its over-dependence on Western capital—made all the more dire by the U.S. turn towards "decoupling." In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, a 2010 Chinese Ministry of Commerce report warned that for every $100 billion exports from China to the United States, the United States captures $80 billion in profits to China's $20 billion. Similar reports quantified the "hegemony dividend" yielded by U.S. monopoly profits via dollar hegemony, debt seigniorage, and financial derivatives. This led China to refocus on domestic markets, "quality and innovation" over low-end exports, and industrial restructuring in its 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015). This economic pivot consolidated under the Made In China 2025 initiative, which privileges innovation and domestic markets better described as Made by (and often, for) China.
U.S. and Chinese officials, including Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, meet during negotiations in Shanghai in July 2019. [Ng Han Guan/AFP/Getty Images]
In this light, the Western demonization of Xi Jinping as the personification of yet another "loss" of China has everything to do with the fact that under Xi's tenure, China has consolidated the defense of the socialist tenets of its political economy—namely, an emphasis on Party leadership over the private sector, an expansion of the role of state-owned enterprises, and a clampdown on corrupt officials who exploited the influx of capital under reform and opening for personal gain. Coupled with the success of state economic planning in navigating the crisis of China's COVID-19 pandemic and a forthcoming 5 Year Plan prioritizing "rural revitalization," the turn towards the reinsertion of the state into economic planning and autonomy is likely to be further consolidated. Combined with a more assertive diplomatic and international stance through international initiatives such as the Belt and Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, both of which reduce China's dependence on Western markets and Western-controlled international institutions, the past decade has eroded any doubts as to whether China would join the ranks of Japan or South Korea as junior partners to a U.S.-led capitalist, imperialist world-system. To the chagrin of Western political elite, the era of "biding time, hiding strength" appears to have decisively passed.
Seen in this historical context, the so-called "trade war" between the U.S. and China is better understood as a last-ditch attempt to constrain China's economic rise within the predetermined confines of the era of engagement. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon has proffered a surprisingly cogent assessment. Describing the urgency Beijing has placed behind Made In China 2025 in the context of U.S. sanctions on ZTE, Bannon stated: "They understand their weakness, how inextricably linked they are to the West." In other words: hit the remaining spheres of Chinese dependence on Western capital—such as semiconductor chips and the SWIFT transfer system—before the full maturation of a Chinese innovation economy.
The hardline negotiation of phase one of a U.S.-China trade deal in January of 2020 portended to do just that. Decried by Chinese netizens and state media alike as a return to the neocolonial "unequal treaties" of the 19th century, phase one forced Chinese concessions on issues of intellectual property transfer, increased purchases of U.S. exports, and market access for U.S. financial services firms. The latter point, which sought to address what U.S. business interest groups decried as the "anemic" market share under strategic restrictions on foreign financial companies, led the U.S. financial sector to salivate over the prospect of "opening its $45 trillion financial industry." Optimistic U.S. analysts promised that a phase two deal could target higher-hanging fruits: state subsidies, discrimination against foreign firms, and Made In China 2025 itself. But less than a year later, the signing of the phase one trade deal already feels as a relic from another era, a last attempt on the part of the U.S. to retain hegemony vis-a-vis China through bilateral negotiations rather than the unilateral aggression of recent months.
Case in point: just weeks after the inking of the deal, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross remarked on the "bright side" of news of an unknown coronavirus strain cluster in Wuhan—the outbreak could "help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America." Nine months later, the U.S. pandemic death toll sits at over 210,000, with 20.6 million jobs loss. What's more, China has emerged as the only major economy to post GDP growth in Q2 of 2020—a modest 3.2% that nonetheless looms large over the U.S.' 32.9% plunge.
The Trump administration has demurred on the possibility of phase two negotiations.
The Bipartisan Pivot to Asia
In retrospect, the trade war can be seen as a swan song for the era of engagement. COVID-19 has laid bare the vulnerabilities of the vast majority of Americans under neoliberalism, while China's socialist pandemic response has set the foundations for an era-defining economic divergence. With the window of opportunity on curtailing China's rise via bilateralism all but closed, the U.S. has pivoted instead to sanctions, decoupling, and militarization—the toolkit of a new containment doctrine.
Yet the "peaceful evolution" presupposed by U.S. engagement with China has always been overdetermined by the shadow of hot war and military encirclement. As Marxian scholars of world-systems theory have made clear, in the last instance, a structure of economic hegemony and dependency is always backed by military supremacy.
The "nuclear option" of lethal force has thus cast a long shadow on U.S.-China relations. From early Cold War proposals to bomb Chinese supply hubs during the Korean War or launch nuclear strikes during the first Taiwan Strait Crisis to the "accidental" bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by NATO in 1999, Chinese strategy has long been informed by recognition of what the U.S. euphemistically refers to as its "asymmetric military advantage" in Asia and the Pacific. Having watched two decades of largely unopposed U.S. military belligerence in the Middle East, China's recent emphasis on military modernization is no doubt shaped by recognition of the U.S.' favored means of dealing with geopolitical noncompliance.
U.S. attempts to renegotiate the terms of engagement over the last decade have similarly been backed by the quiet reshuffling of the U.S. military towards the "Pacific theater." With less bombast but arguably more substance, the Obama administration's military "Pivot to Asia" preceded the Trump administration's labeling of China as a "strategic competitor" by shifting 60% of U.S. navy and air combat capacity to the Pacific theater. This military encirclement added heft to Obama's free trade Trans-Pacific Partnership, which sought either to shore up U.S. regional economic power to the exclusion of China or integrate China into further conditions of economic liberalization.
The Trump administration's prompt decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership is often cited as proof of the turn in China policy between the two administrations. Yet, Trump's military strategy has largely continued the shift initiated by Obama's pivot to the Pacific theater. In 2019, Defense Secretary Mark Esper added rhetorical bluster to the Obama administration's quiet calculations by declaring China the Pentagon's "number one priority." And in 2020, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command released a budget plan titled "Regain the Advantage," requesting $20 billion to retain military supremacy in the Asia-Pacific through a massive expansion of missile, radar, and "precision-strike networks" across Guam, Okinawa, and Hawai'i.
The unity of U.S. military strategy towards China between the Obama and Trump administrations reflects a bipartisan consensus: "China's rise" has exceeded the bounds acceptable to U.S. hegemony, creating diminishing returns for the parasitic U.S.-China relationship.
Meanwhile, it is clear the Democratic Party has no alternative to the program of unilateral escalation and deterioration of the U.S.-China relationship. Joe Biden has taken to ridiculing Trump for allowing China to perfect the "art of the steal" and condemned Trump for praising Xi Jinping's early COVID-19 response, insisting that he would have demanded "boots on the ground" in Wuhan. In a preview of her likely policy agenda, Biden's favored Defense Secretary Michèle Flournoy decried the "erosion of American deterrence" and called for new investment and innovation to "maintain the U.S. military's edge" in Asia in the name of "peace."
As in the old neoliberal formulation, "there is no alternative" to a Thucydides trap of the U.S.' own making. To the detriment of humanity, the U.S. hegemonic worldview insists on distorting Chinese declarations of sovereignty, multilateralism, and "shared future for humankind" into threats of aggression and imperialization.
The end of engagement marks a critical reassessment on the part of the United States: that change in China cannot be "induced" through co-optive means alone. If hot war is considered off the table given the intertwined economies of the United States and China, then U.S. efforts towards economic decoupling must be understood also as military strategy, opening the door to a whole range of escalating tactics.
Yet, the end of engagement also poses a historic juncture between the paths of unilateralism and of multilateralism. Contrary to State Department fear mongering, China's rise is not a threat to U.S. hegemony because China seeks its own hegemony. The real threat to U.S. hegemony is China's role in ushering in a new era of multilateralism, in which institutions such as the UN once wielded as proxies of a hegemonic "Pax Americana" fulfill their promise instead as platforms for international peace and cooperation. China's increasing commitments to UN peacekeeping forces, the World Health Organization, and international COVID-19 vaccine efforts such as COVAX all speak to China's interest in bolstering rules-based multilateralism as a counterweight to ongoing U.S. belligerence.
Such are China's rejoinders to the U.S. Cold War mentality. Before the United Nations General Assembly in September, President Xi Jinping declared that China "has no intention to fight either a Cold War or a hot one with any country," rejecting zero sum geopolitics and calling for global cooperation to face the global crises of COVID-19 and climate change.
That Chinese sovereignty and the socialist path have been heralded as an existential threat to the Western alliance speaks far more to the nature of U.S. hegemony than it does to the character of China's rise. After all, it is not China but the U.S. empire that insists on dividing the world into opposing camps. In the end, there are only two sides to be taken: the side of imperialism, unilateralism, and hegemony—and the side of the future.
Monthly Review does not necessarily adhere to all of the views conveyed in articles republished at MR Online. Our goal is to share a variety of left perspectives that we think our readers will find interesting or useful. —Eds.
Contagion in art
Chavismo and the Left: A conversation with Reinaldo Iturriza (Part II)
Also by Eds.
Defying U.S. Caesar Act, China admits Syria into BRI by Eds.	January 18, 2022
[BREAKING] Venezuelan Government envoy Alex Saab extradited to the United States by Eds.	October 18, 2021
The institutional murder of Fr. Stan Swamy by Eds.	July 06, 2021
Dick Lewontin, 1929-2021 by Eds.	July 05, 2021

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


You may recognize juniper as the main flavourant in gin, but there is so much more you can do with organic juniper berries! Add it to pheasant, duck, or venison, and it will liven up your soups and stews too!
Pair juniper berries with game birds, garlic, and rosemary for a delicious and healthy dinner. Juniper also pairs well with allspice, caraway, and celery.


Samsung has started rolling out another official Android 4.1.2 Jelly Bean firmware update with firmware build number P3100XXCME2 for Samsung Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 P3100 users in Southeast Asia countries. The new official firmware reportedly brings a host of bug-fixes and feature enhancements over its previous build.
The official firmware is now available for download via Over-The-Air (OTA) update as well as through Samsung KIES. However, those who missed the OTA update notification or unable to access the update over Samsung KIES can download and install the same manually, using our step-by-step guide.
1. Install USB Driver for Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 on the computer.
2. Enable USB Debugging Mode on the phone.
4. The Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 should be factory unlocked and not locked to any particular carrier.
6. The Android 4.1.2 XXCME2 Jelly Bean firmware is compatible only with Samsung Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 P3100. Applying this to any incorrect variant might brick the device. Verify the model number of the Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 by navigating to Settings >> About Phone.
Step 1: Extract Firmware zip file that you downloaded already from above link using WinRAR/7-Zip/WinZip or any other extracting tool, you will get a .tar.md5 file and some other files.
Step 4: Boot the device into Download Mode by pressing and holding Volume Down and Power buttons together until the device turns on. Then press the Volume Up button to enter Download Mode.
Step 6: Connect the Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 to the computer using USB cable while it is in the Download Mode. Wait until Odin detects the device. When the device is connected successfully, the ID: COM box will turn yellow with the COM port number. Additionally, the successful connected will be indicated by a message saying Added. If Odin fails to detect the device then re-install USB driver.
Samsung Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 P3100 should be now updated with official Android 4.1.2 XXCME2 Jelly Bean firmware. Head over to Settings >> About Phone to verify the software version running on the device.
Note: If Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 P3100 stuck at booting animation after Step 10 then go to recovery mode (press and hold the Volume Up and Power buttons together) and perform Wipe data/Factory Reset and Wipe Cache Partition task before selecting reboot system now function. In recovery mode use Volume keys to navigate between options and Power key to select the option. Please note, performing wiping task will erase your device internal memory data and not external SD card data.
Click here to know How to Root Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 P3100 running on Android 4.1.2 Jelly Bean firmware.
Yeah, hopefully it will be released in the near future.
any mirror link for the FW ?
hi. can you root and upgrade your firmware even if you don't have memory card? thanks.
Of course, not a problem.
if i would have this firmware,can i still use the link on how to root the tab even if it says that its for android 4.1.2 XXCMA4 Jelly Bean firmware?
your such a big help and you always answer our questions :) thanks.
Working well on Android 4.1.2 XXCME2 Jelly Bean firmware.
How does the Galaxy Tab P1000?
whether they can be upgraded?
You can do the update manually using Odin. Have you already tried it through KIES?
Additionally, the official Android Jelly Bean firmware update for your device is not yet available. You can try to install Android 4.2.2 Jelly Bean based CyanogenMod 10.1 Nightly ROM on your Galaxy Tab P1000.
No, I don't have add file for proceed, maybe you have tutorial for upgrade P1000?
Sorry for the late reply. You can try this one.
Hi friends, can I try to upgrade in the P3100UBLH1 ?
The XXCME2 build is an unbranded version of firmware which means it can be installed on the international 3G + Wi-Fi version of Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 P3100.
hi friend! my galazy tab2 7 gt-3100B. Can i update it with your soft ware?
I'm not sure it will work fine with GT-P3100B.
After update with this tutorial with my build number .... XXCME2, can I use your root tutorial?
Yep, it's also working well on Jelly Bean with base firmware XXCME2.
Not a problem, the custom ROM will be replaced with official firmware. Make a backup just in case.
bro , im new here . i just want to ask , what was supposed to download ? is that the stock firmware only ? or the kernel file too ??
Im from Bangladesh.. can i install this ?


text:
July 31, 2022 Tyler Vesely Leave a comment
ACC Championship: Clemson over Miami
ACC ATLANTIC
1. Clemson Tigers
Projected Record: 12-1
Wins: Georgia Tech, Furman, Louisiana Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, South Carolina, Miami (ACC Championship)
Losses: Boston College
Clemson had an incredibly disappointing year last year and still finished 10-3. The problem last year was the offense as they finished 100th in yards per game. Whether they improve will be a major indicator on how far this team goes. If DJ Uiagalelei continues to decline look for true freshman Cade Klubnik to take over. On defense this is one of the greatest defensive lines in the country and, even after losing some key pieces in the secondary, Clemson should still finish as a top ten defense in the nation. Overall, I expect this team to be carried by the defense and the offense to improve from last season. Expect them to be on top of the ACC and be a college football playoff contender.
2. NC State Wolfpack
Wins: East Carolina, Charleston Southern, Texas Tech, UConn, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College, Louisville
Losses: Clemson, North Carolina
The Wolfpack have a really solid team going into 2022 and they are led by the best quarterback in the ACC, Devin Leary. If NC State opens up the passing game and lets him throw more, this is a team that could take down Clemson in the ACC Atlantic. Especially, because this team is so good defensively with ten returning starters to a top 20 defense. The defense is led by one of the best linebacker duos in college football between Drake Thomas and Payton Wilson. Overall, if I knew NC State would open up the offense a little more I would trust them to take down Clemson… but even if they don't I still see this team with a good chance of getting to double digit wins.
3. Boston College Eagles
Projected Record: 8-4
Wins: Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Maine, Louisville, Clemson, UConn, Duke, Syracuse
Losses: Florida State, Wake Forest, NC State, Notre Dame
Coach Jeff Hafley continues to build this team in the right direction. Now with a very good defense and talented QB Phil Jurkovec and WR Zay Flowers returning, this Boston College team will be a tough out in the ACC. However, they are faced with replacing all five offensive lineman from last year. Overall, expect a solid squad who will surely make a bowl game.
4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wins: VMI, Vanderbilt, Liberty, Army, Boston College, Louisville, Syracuse, Duke
Losses: Clemson, Florida State, NC State, North Carolina
Wake Forrest brings almost everyone back to a fringe top ten offense. This includes QB Sam Hartman and one of the best receivers in the country in AT Perry. The questions surrounding this team are on the defensive side after finishing last year 92nd in the country. Expect the defense to improve a little, but not enough to win the Atlantic like they did last year.
5. Louisville Cardinals
Wins: Syracuse, UCF, Florida State, USF, Virginia, Pitt, James Madison
Losses: Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, NC State, Kentucky
Louisville's offense is extremely dangerous especially with four of the five starters back on offensive line and quarterback Malik Cunningham leading. However, I see defense being the issue especially along the defensive line. Overall, I see this being one of Coach Satterfield's best teams he has had while at Louisville and should be a solid team in the ACC.
6. Florida State Seminoles
Wins: Duquesne, Boston College, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Louisiana
Losses: LSU, Louisville, NC State, Clemson, Miami, Florida
Florida State showed real improvement and growth last year. Now in Mike Norvell's third year expect the best team yet. When healthy, Jordan Travis was a solid dual threat QB. The Seminoles also bring back 4 of the 5 starters on offensive line that should be decent. Defensively, expect Florida State to be solid with very good linebacker and defensive line play. They also have an edge rusher that transferred from Albany named Jared Verse who will make an immediate impact. Overall, I really like this team in the ACC. But a tough non-conference schedule featuring Florida and LSU will be tough to overcome.
7. Syracuse Orange
Wins: UConn, Virginia, Wagner, Florida State
Losses: Louisville, Purdue, NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Boston College
Dino Babers is going into his seventh season as the head coach of Syracuse and they've gone straight downhill since winning ten games in 2018. This offense will be led by their running attack between running back Sean Tucker and mobile quarterback Garrett Shrader. Still, it is hard to trust them as I don't project them having a good offensive or defensive line. Overall, don't expect Syracuse to go bowling in what might be Dino Babers last season as the head football coach.
ACC Coastal
1. Miami Hurricanes
Wins: Bethune-Cookman, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
Losses: Texas A&M, Clemson, Clemson (ACC Championship)
Miami found their quarterback of the future with the emergence of Tyler Van Dyke last year. Along with Van Dyke, Miami also has a solid offensive line and some talented tight ends. On defense this team was young last year, but return a ton of starters and added quality players via the transfer portal. The strength will be in the secondary after Miami played three talented freshman last year. West Virginia transfer Akheem Mesidor and Leonard Taylor make up a solid defensive tackle duo. Overall, in Mario Cristobal's first season as head coach he has a solid team. If the defense matures quickly and the offense continues their momentum from last year… this is a legitimate ACC contender.
2. Pittsburgh Panthers
Wins: West Virginia, Western Michigan, Rhode Island, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Duke
Losses: Tennessee, Louisville, Miami
Coming off an ACC title, Pittsburgh returns 14 starters. However, they are losing first round quarterback Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff award winner WR Jordan Addison. Still, with their entire offensive line coming back and a good replacement in USC transfer QB Kedon Slovis, Pittsburgh is in a good position to repeat as the ACC Coastal champion. This is especially true on defense where they return almost all of their defensive lineman and a solid secondary. Also returning is Habakkuk Baldonado who finished with 9 sacks last year. Overall this is a really good team, but I worry about coach Pat Narduzzi getting too conservative after his Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple left for Nebraska.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels
Wins: Florida A&M, Appalachian State, Georgia State, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, NC State,
Losses: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh
The Tar Heels failed to live up to expectations last year, but they actually come into this season a little underrated. The strength of this team is the front seven and especially at the defensive line. Taking over at quarterback will most likely be Drake Maye who will have explosive wide receiver Josh Downs, coming off a 1300 yard season, to throw to. If North Carolina can have the offensive line and a complimentary wide receiver step up, this could be a dangerous team. Overall, expect the Tar Heels to compete in the top half of the ACC Coastal.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies
Wins: Old Dominion, Wofford, North Carolina, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Liberty
Losses: Boston College, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, NC State, Virginia
The Hokies moved on from the Justin Fuente era after a 6-7 season. Now, former Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Prye takes over for the Hokies. Also coming to Blacksburg is Marshall transfer quarterback Grant Wells who is a decent option. However, there are major questions with the offensive line and at wide receiver. Overall, this team will be led by their defensive experience. Expect an average ACC team who will most likely make a bowl game.
5. Virginia Cavaliers
Wins: Richmond, Old Dominion, Duke, Georgia Tech, Coastal Carolina, Virginia Tech
Losses: Illinois, Syracuse, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong returns after last year's Virginia offense finished as a top five offense. Also returning are their top three wide receivers including do it all player Keytaon Thompson. The issues for this offense are on the offensive line as they lost all of their starters from last year's team. Add to the fact this defense was 108th last year, this is a team with major holes. Overall, Brennan Armstrong and the Virginia offense will do enough to make a bowl game.
6. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Projected Record: 2-10
Wins: Western Carolina, Duke
Losses: Clemson, Ole Miss, UCF, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Georgia
Georgia Tech is a tough spot with a hard schedule and an inexperienced lineup. The Yellow Jackets return just one starter to the offensive line and zero starters in a secondary that finished 121st last year. Overall, it would be a miracle if this team makes a bowl game… don't expect much.
7. Duke Blue Devils
Wins: Temple, North Carolina A&T
Losses: Northwestern, Kansas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
New coach Mike Elko has a major rebuild on his hands. The defense finished 118th last year and only brings back four starters. Offensively, there isn't a clear starter at quarterback. Overall, expect this to be one of the bottom teams in the power five.
Wins: Marshall, Cal, North Carolina, BYU, Stanford, UNLV, Syracuse, Navy, Boston College
Losses: Ohio State, Clemson, USC
The Marcus Freeman era starts at Notre Dame. Notre Dame is led by a strong offensive and defensive line. Tyler Buckner will take over as the starting QB along with a questionable wide receiver room. Overall, expect the Fighting Irish to be led by their defense. But the offense will need to step up if they want to be a legitimate playoff contender.
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Q: Finding support of a function Let $X$ be a set and $f$ be a function from $X$ to
$\{0, 1\}$, the field with two
elements. The support of $f$ is the set $f ^ {-1}$
(1), which we denote by $\DeclareMathOperator{\supp}{supp}\supp(f)$.
For a collection $F$ of such functions define $\:\supp(F) = \bigcap_{f∈F} \supp(f)$
Note that when $F = ∅, \:\supp(F) = X$, and that for such functions,
$f$ is the characteristic function of its support, i.e., $f = χ_{\supp(f)}$.
Find the supports of $f · g$, $1 − f$, $f + g − f · g$, and $1 − f + f · g$ in terms of
the supports of $f$ and $g$.
Do now know where to start. Will be helpful to get at least the first one to see how it works.

A: I give you a couple of examples.
Let $f \cdot g \colon X \to \{0,1\}$ be the function defined by $(f \cdot g) (x) = f(x) \cdot g(x)$ for all $x \in X$.
The support of $f \cdot g$ is the intersection of the supports of $f$ and $g$.
Indeed, by definition of support,
\begin{align}
\operatorname{supp}(f \cdot g) &= \{x \in X \mid f(x) \cdot g(x) = 1\} \\
 &= \{x \in X \mid f(x) = 1 \text{ and } g(x) = 1\} \\
 &= \{x \in X \mid f(x) = 1\} \cap \{x \in X \mid g(x) = 1\} = \operatorname{supp}(f) \cap \operatorname{supp}(g).
\end{align}
Let $1 \!-\! f \colon X \to \{0,1\}$ be the function defined by $(1 \!-\! f)(x) = 1 - f(x)$ for all $x \in X$.
The support of $1 \!-\!f$ is the complement of the support of $f$.
Indeed, by definition of support,
\begin{align}
\operatorname{supp}(1 \!-\! f) &= \{x \in X \mid f(x) = 0\} \\
 &= \{x \in X \mid f(x) \neq 1\} \\
 &= X \smallsetminus \{x \in X \mid f(x) = 1\} \ = X \smallsetminus \operatorname{supp}(f).
\end{align}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Ian is a partner and chief economist at Deloitte Consulting UK where he advises clients on macroeconomics and financial markets developments. Ian devised and runs Deloitte's quarterly survey of chief financial officers, writes the Monday Briefing and comments on the economic scene in the media. Before joining Deloitte Ian spent 12 years as chief economist for Europe at the US investment bank, Merrill Lynch in London.


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Mobile Phones › Infocus Mobile Phones › Infocus M808 Price in India
Infocus M808
Infocus M808 is a dual-SIM smartphone running Android 5.1 Lollipop. It features a 5.2-inch Full HD (1920x1080 pixels) LCD display. The phone is powered by a 1.3 GHz 64-bit octa-core MediaTek MT6753 processor. It comes with a 13 MP rear camera with LED flash and a 5 MP front camera. The Infocus M808 has 2 GB of RAM, 16 GB internal storage, and a microSD slot. Connectivity features include 4G LTE, 3G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 4.0 and GPS. It is fuelled by a 2,450 mAh non-removable battery.
2 GB RAM RAM
16 GB internal storage
Android v5.1 (Lollipop)
Infocus M808 Price in India
Infocus M808 Price starts at Rs. 5,999. The lowest price of Infocus M808 is at Amazon. M808 is not available in other online stores. Infocus M808 is available in Silver colours across various online stores in India.
Infocus M808 Details
The Infocus M808 offers an amazing viewing experience thanks to its 5.1 to 5.5 inch capacitive touchscreen display, which sports a resolution of HD and can produce vivid images.
This smartphone comes with a MediaTek 65xx processor that combines a MediaTek 65xx chipset and a Adreno 330 GPU to provide high performance in all the latest games and apps. There is 2GB RAM for easy multitasking.
There is a 13 MP camera on the rear for imaging purposes, with LED, autofocus and HD video recording support. A 8 MP front-facing camera takes care of video calls and selfies. Users can simply point and shoot to take the best pictures, or take control of what they capture by using many of the camera modes built into the device.
The device comes 16GB of internal storage, along with a microSD slot for further expansion of storage space. Users can connect to the cloud for online storage of their personal data and files, or transfer all their content to a computer by using the microUSB port.
The Infocus M808 sips fuel from a and is capable of lasting for long periods of time with mixed usage, despite staying connected at all times. The device supports wireless and quick charging, so users can conveniently top up the battery.
The Infocus M808 runs Android 4.4 Kitkat, which is an intuitive operating system with access to thousands of apps and games through a dedicated app store.
Users can stay connected thanks to the plethora of connectivity options supported by the device, with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, 3G, 4G LTE and dual SIM support out of the box. A microUSB port can be used for charging and for transferring content to and from a computer. GPS is supported as well, so that users can find their way to a destination by using real-time navigation.
Amazon.in InFocus M808 (Mysterious Silver) ₹5,999
Does it support video calling?
Yes, it supports video calling.
By Sarika, 27 months ago
Does this mobile support 4g?
Yes, it support's 4G and VoLTE too.
By ramegowdamr, 32 months ago
Yes, 4G only one sim at a time.
By p4parveenkumarr, 30 months ago
By aarjunsingh480, 28 months ago
By ravindradalvi12, 28 months ago
By sourendranath05, 30 months ago
Does it have any hanging problems?
By somnath.p, 30 months ago
User Reviews of Infocus M808
User reviews from top stores. Read all 32 reviews ➝
do not buy infocus
By swarajp40, 37 months ago
do not buy infocus very bad it is. its service centre is very poor services 1 and half month my mobile is in service centre and I'm not satisfied for the service
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Infocus M808 Price in India is Rs. 5,999 as on 23rd January 2020 02:35:18
Infocus Octa Core Mobiles
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"It's entirely possible that gay and lesbian comics bloggers outnumber the rest of you at this point, and with a little fore-planning our coming coup could crush you all beneath our lavender boots and completely change the face of comics blogging forever."
Okay, look: I realize that Marvel's response to the whole "No gays whoops I mean we love the gays" controversy has been amusingly pathetic from start to finish. I got into an email exchange with a gay comics writer complaining about all this over the weekend, which alerted me to the fact that the Rawhide Kid was rather clumsily stuffed back into the closet in a recent issue of The Official Handbook to the Marvel Universe (which I didn't know) and additionally that Moon Knight's sidekick Frenchie was now gay (which I also didn't know, and naturally left me thinking, "He's French, of course Marvel made him gay"). Okay, the House That Jack Built has no credibility on the issue whatsoever, granted. Name me three on which they do have credibility.
All that said: Look, it's a cliffhanger, okay? Last panel in the book, "to be continued," all that jazz? It's a cheesy superhero book, and all cheesy superhero books end in cheesy cliffhangers where Our Hero is in a Terrible Fix. That's how it works. If you really want gay characters in your cheesy superhero books, you're going to find yourself reading lots of cheesy little bits like this, so I suggest you get used to it. If they kill off or permanently maim their few remaining gay characters next month, we'll all get to point out what homophobic dorks they are all over again, GLAAD will undoubtedly issue one of their manymanymany disapproving action alerts, someone at Marvel will crawl on his belly in contrition to the press, and the reset button will get us all ready for yet another round the month after that. Sounds like great fun to me! In the meantime, keep your powder dry and wait to see what happens before you begin with the tsk-tsks.
Besides, the really obnoxious part of that panel is the way it demonstrates, once again, that your average superhero artist has no conception whatsoever of the relationship between female breasts and gravity. Why complain about the possibility of anti-gay bias when you have artistic incompetence to mock in the meantime? Priorities, man.
Above, right: The offending panel from Young Avengers/Runaways #3 — boogie woogie woogie! — ©2006 Marvel Characters, Inc.


The "Give Where You Live" campaign on May 2nd was a day of giving we will never forget! We are overwhelmed by the incredible generosity and the outpouring of support from our community during this 24-hour online giving event.
Because of your generous contributions, we are thrilled to announce that we raised a total of $20,522. With the $20,000 match from a long-time supporter which doubled your good, the GRAND TOTAL for "Give Where You Live" is $40,522!
The success of this giving day, will enable Healthy Cities Tutoring to deepen our impact in our community and allow us to grow and match more students who struggle in school with a caring tutor. Thank you for your meaningful investment in our program and for sharing in this remarkable day!
"Give Where You Live" was part of the national Give Local America day.


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The Role Of Racial Segregation In Longtown
Ever since America was colonized, racial segregation has been a major issue. Many people assume that different races result in different characteristics. This has been evident in nearly all of history. Many American towns exhibited racial segregation at its worst for this simple reason. However, for nearly 200 years, Longtown, Ohio has continuously set the precedent of racial harmony. Longtown has been free from this issue because of what it has been exposed to. When slaves were eluding authorities using the Underground Railroad they seeked refuge in Longtown. Despite the fact that segregation was at its worst, gracious hosts took runaway slaves in and assisted them through their journey. According to an article by the Associated Press
Segregation In Kansas City In The 1940's
Grace Vaughn Mrs. Gumina English III Hour 1 4 April 2016 Title "Overall, the percentage of black residents in Kansas City — which rose from 17.5 percent in 1960 to 31 percent in 2000 — has now dropped to 29 percent" (As Whites Flock to Kansas City, Blacks Pick the Suburbs 1). Segregation in Kansas City has been a problem for decades. One of the biggest problems in the 1940's-1960's is segregation in neighborhoods. This is one of the biggest concerns because it concerns where people eat, go to school, go to work, and many other aspects of their lives.
Racial Segregation In The 1960's
Even though "segregation" was a legitimate policy that was eradicated in the 1960's, racial segregation still happens today. It's declined and isn't as bad as the 1960's because census data shows that neighborhoods are still racially segregated and there is low diversity rates.
Segregation In The 1930's
In Merriam Webster Online Dictionary, the word segregation means a "cause or force the separation of (as from the rest of society)." American society has for decades segregated African-Americans from their White counterparts. Even today, with equal rights for all, many people of color feel segregated in their daily lives. However, today's segregation does not compare to the 1930's America. For instance, the laws in the 1930's made African-Americans feel the weight of segregation in their daily lives and education.
The Seizure Of Segregation In The 1890's
In the early 1890's the Supreme Court ruled that segregation was legal. This means that blacks and whites used different restaurants, hotels theatres, and hotels. Blacks were considered inferior to white people and got less money from the government. The black schools and hospitals were considerably subpar to the white public places. Jim Crows laws in the South allowed this type of segregation and inequity to occur.
Reasons For The Failure Of The Reconstruction Era
Segregation became a big deal in many states. One major example is Plessy v. Ferguson. Homer Plessy, a biracial man, sat with white people on a train. Plessy got arrested for this, and lost his case in court.
The Segregation Of Schools In The 1950's
The segregation of schools based on a students skin color was in place until 1954. On May 17th of that year, during the Supreme Court case of Brown v. Board of Education, it was declared that separate public schools for black and white students was unconstitutional. However, before this, the segregation of schools was a common practice throughout the country. In the 1950s there were many differences in the way that black public schools and white public schools were treated with very few similarities. The differences between the black and white schools encouraged racism which made the amount of discrimination against blacks even greater.
Residential Segregation In Schools
Residential segregation has a profound effect on the quality of local academics. A study conducted, showed "families and schools in America's inner cities and rural places simply lack many of the resources that promote educational achievement and attainment" (Roscigno, Tomaskovic-Devey, and Crowley 2006:2139). This lack of resources is caused by the low taxation of property based on the income level of its residents. This is a vicious cycle that continues to trap individuals and their families in these areas.
Longtown Racism
The color of a person 's skin does not affect anyone according to many citizens in an Ohio town. In Longtown, Ohio, people are growing up with people of different races and were taught that a person 's color or appearance did not matter. Longtown has a history and has been recognized for giving job opportunities to not only white, but to black people too. No matter what a persons race is, they should be respected anywhere and everywhere. Longtown, Ohio is a great example of this. Black people hanging out with white people is very normal out there and has been normal for the past 200 years. In the article, "Ohio town holds rare history: Races mix freely for nearly 200 years" it says, "Black history is not talked about a lot in general." This shows that everyone is treated with equality.
12th Street Riots In Detroit
One of which was Detroit. The city had an increase in population significantly but there was not enough housing to cater to the mass influx of new migrants. African Americans had to endure discriminatory behavior in housing and employment. They had compete with rural white southern migrants as well as immigrants from southern and eastern Europe, for lower class jobs which no one else really wanted. Some of the patterns of racial and ethnic segregation persisted after other social discrimination had eased by the mid-20th century.
Residential Segregation Research Paper
1. The health issue we will discuss is residential segregation. This is the physical separation of two or more groups into different neighborhoods, or a form of segregation that "sorts population groups into various neighborhoods contexts and shapes the living environment at the neighborhood level. In addition, we will discuss a health disparity, which is defined as inequalities that exist when members of certain population groups do not benefit from the same health status as other groups. Racial residential segregation is a fundamental cause of racial disparities in health.
Brown V. Board Of Education Case Analysis
Decades ago, children of various races could not go to school together in many locations of the United States. School districts could segregate students, legally, into different schools according to the color of their skin. The law said these separate schools had to be equal. Many schools for children that possessed color were of lesser quality than the schools for white students. To have separate schools for the black and white children became a basic rule in southern society.
Jim Crow Era Dbq
Segregation was allowed in the United States of America as the 14th amendment abolished slavery, but left gaps on the topic of fair segregation on all levels.
Longtown, Ohio Argumentative Essay
Longtown, Ohio is one of the only places where races didn't matter two centuries ago. Interracial marriages were happening here without argument or trouble. This system of liberty and freedom of the races was founded by a freed slave from Virginia named James Clemens, who later became a rich farmer, but this system is close to being abolished because of the decrease of the original Longtown population. Their places are being taken by whites and they are also purchasing their property. This will eventually move out the people of Longtown and be a city of whites.
Eisenbrey: Racial Segregation In America
Eisenbrey explained that deindustrialization and racial segregation are big things that affected inner cities. He explained how black people were excluded from a lot of things such as being left out of the great expansion, how they weren't able to get mortgages, and were kept out of suburbs. Tanner then goes on to explain how he thinks that the flight of the white people also affected this too. The white middle-class individuals would flee to the suburbs causing the taxes to be lower, the schools to be better, and the crime to be lower. They both hit many points on the schools they have in Baltimore. When the white people had fled, they left the black people with what was left of these schools, which was almost nothing. Tanner believed that
Citizen Claudia Rankine
A Racist Typhoon A wise Sir Winston Churchill profoundly declared, "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." American history claimed to abolish segregation through the Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawing discrimination against race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. However, fifty some years later it seems as though segregation against people of color is slowly inching to reestablish its dominantly prevalent reputation it had in 1964.
More about The Role Of Racial Segregation In Longtown


- Context Menu scanning option is now enabled by default. Note if you had this option disabled previously and want to retain that setting, you must disable again manually this one time only. Future updates will retain the setting properly.
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- Fixed security vulnerability to ensure database updates are downloaded over SSL connections only.
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- Fixed issue where scheduled scan did not honor weekly recurrence properly.
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- Fixed issue where the update progress bar on the Dashboard would appear to hang and would never complete.
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Home News India 45 killed as bus plunges into valley in Telangana
45 killed as bus plunges into valley in Telangana
on: September 11, 2018 In: India, Latest NewsTags:
Hyderabad: At least 45 passengers, most of them women, died and about 15 others were injured after an overcrowded state-run bus plunged into a valley in Telangana's Jagtial district Tuesday, police said.
The accident took place when the Telangana State Road Transport Corporation (TSRTC) bus skidded off a ghat road near Shanivarapet village, about 200 km from Hyderabad, around 11.30 am, they said.
The bus was proceeding from Kondagattu to Jagtial.
Telangana Caretaker Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao expressed shock over the incident and announced financial assistance of Rs 5 lakh to the family of each deceased.
He also asked officials to provide immediate medical assistance to the injured, a release by the Chief Minister's Office (CMO) said.
As per preliminary investigation, about 60-65 people were travelling in the bus with a capacity to accommodate only 54, police said.
Jagtial District Superintendent of Police Sindhu Sharma said the injured were rushed to hospitals in Jagtial and neighbouring Karimnagar district.
It is suspected that the bus driver lost control over the vehicle near a speed breaker, resulting in the accident.
However, the exact reason is under investigation, she said.
The officer said 31 bodies have been identified.
"The bodies will be handed over to the families after postmortem," another police official said.
A TSRTC official said an inquiry was underway to ascertain the cause of the accident, adding the deceased included the driver Srinivas (51).
Expressing grief over the loss of life, Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee president N Uttam Kumar Reddy demanded financial assistance of Rs 10 lakh to the families of the deceased. (PTI)
Petrol, diesel prices hit fresh highs
1 crore fake beneficiaries found registered in anganwadis: Maneka Gandhi
Separate IAS cadre demand from some States: Dr Jitendra


text:
Is Texas Poised to Rebuild Cow Herd?
By David Widmar
In the past several weeks, bleak and persistently dry conditions across the Southern Plains lifted as much needed rain fell. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor shows only small pockets of abnormally dry conditions across the region; significant improvements from just a month or two ago.
The vastly improved drought conditions have many implications. Recently media attention has focused on the prospects of cattle producers, especially in Texas, rebuilding their herds after the drought's onset in 2010 forced many to scale back due to limited forage availability. In this post we looked at U.S. cow herd trends and see if Texas producers are poised to rebuild their cow herd?
Cow Herd Trends
The U.S. cow herd has been on a declining trend. In figure 1, the size of the U.S. cow herd is shown declining from 33.6 million in 2000 to a low-point of 29.1 million in 2014. In the most recent data from January 2015, an uptick to 29.7 million was observed.
Since 2010 a sharp decline in the size of the U.S. herd occurred. Overall, a 5.6% reduction in the U.S. was experienced; a contraction of more than 1.7 million head. The size of the national herd has been an important driver of recently strong profitability for cow-calf producers.
Figure 1. U.S. cow herd, millions of head (January 1). 2000-2015. Source: USDA NASS.
Why is Texas Important?
Diving into state-level data, the decline of the U.S. cow herd from 2010 to 2015 takes on an interesting characteristic. Of the more than 1.7 million head decline, the reductions in Texas alone were 960,000 head. This is equivalent to 55.0% of the net U.S. decline. And while Texas has the largest share of the total U.S. herd, 14.1% (2015), the reduction in U.S. herd size came disproportionally from Texas.
Texas Cow Herd and the Drought
To understand how the decline in the cattle herd in Texas relates to drought conditions, figure 2 illustrates the share of the state that was in D2-D4 drought levels (Severe Drought to Exceptional Drought condition) in blue (left axis). In the final months of 2010, the share of the state experiencing strong drought conditions began to quickly intensify. By August 2011, more than 99% of the state was impacted. The scope of the drought in Texas ebbed and flowed but, until recently, kept a tight grip on the state.
The number of cows in Texas is also shown in figure 2 (in orange, right axis). The number of cows in Texas began declining in 2011 and only increased in 2015, as the scope of the drought began to shrink.
Figure 2. Texas cow herd, millions of head (January 1). 2000-2015. Source: USDA NASS. Share of Texas impacted by D2-D4 drought conditions (2000-2015). Source: U.S. Drought Monitor.
The trend of a decreasing cow herd in the U.S. has been at work for years. Recently the trend accelerated and has certainly contributed to a period of strong profitability for cow-calf producers. A critical driver for the sector's profitably in the future will be the size of the cow herd.
An interesting element of the recent decline in the U.S. cow herd has been the disproportionate decline in the Texas herd size. The majority of the U.S. herd decline from 2010 to 2015 came from Texas. The decline in the Texas herd has corresponded with a persistent drought. In 2014, as drought conditions were less severe, an increase in the cow herd size occurred (as measured in January 2015). Texas alone accounted for 44.4% of the net U.S. herd increase from 2014-2015.
Most recently, the drought conditions in Texas have subsided. This sets the stage for a potential rebound in the Texas herd size, as several media stories have pointed out. Should the Texas herd rebound to 2010 levels, the increase would be equal to a 3.2% increase in the entire U.S. herd. When thinking about the profitability of cow-calf producers moving forward, a careful eye on the size of the Texas herd and how they rebuild will be critical.
Interested in learning more? Follow the Agricultural Economic Insights' Blog by clicking here. Also, follow AEI on Twitter and Facebook.
Photo Source: Flickr/Nicholas A. Tonelli