Kosovo and U.S. sponsored terrorists unraveling: war crimes and Hague for Clinton?
In the heart of the cradle of Serbian Orthodox Christianity in Kosovo the U.S. and U.K. support of sponsored terrorism during the Kosovo conflict is unraveling. Orthodox Christian churches have been destroyed in many areas since Kosovo Albanian rule and minorities fled in fear. However, despite this the U.S. and U.K. was feeling content with the de-Christianization of Kosovo and ethnic persecution of minorities which include the Serbs and Gypsies.
Therefore, this article will focus on the reality of what really happened and highlight a different side of the Clinton administration. Also, because of bias against the Serbian position all quotes will come from Western sources and this applies to major Western news agencies and the heart of government in America.
Powerful PR campaigns had done a great job of victimizing the Serbs despite this minority being the victim of Kosovo Albanian nationalism for many decades under the old Yugoslavia. Therefore, the former terrorists of the KLA according to the U.S. in early 1998 miraculously became "freedom fighters" and soon they were allies of NATO in its illegal intervention.
This didn't go unrecognized and in the United States Senate, Republican Policy Committee (http://rpc.senate.gov/releases/1999/fr033199.htm), in the report titled The Kosovo Liberation Army: Does Clinton Policy Support Group with Terror, Drug Ties – many hard facts were mentioned.
Further down in the report it states "The Kosovo Liberation Army "began on the radical fringe of Kosovar Albanian politics, originally made up of diehard Marxist-Leninists (who were bankrolled in the old days by the Stalinist dictatorship next door in Albania) as well as by descendants of the fascist militias raised by the Italians in World War II" ["Fog of War — Coping With the Truth About Friend and Foe: Victims Not Quite Innocent," New York Times, 3/28/99]. The KLA made its military debut in February 1996 with the bombing of several camps housing Serbian refugees from wars in Croatia and Bosnia [Jane's Intelligence Review, 10/1/96]. The KLA (again according to the highly regarded Jane's,) "does not take into consideration the political or economic importance of its victims, nor does it seem at all capable of seriously hurting its enemy, the Serbian police and army. Instead, the group has attacked Serbian police and civilians arbitrarily at their weakest points. It has not come close to challenging the region's balance of military power" [Jane's, 10/1/96].
Therefore, in the heart of America and with information from only Western sources the KLA were supported by the "descendants of the fascist militias raised by the Italians in World War Two" and had been bankrolled by the Stalinist dictatorship in Albania because they had originally been "diehard Marxist-Leninists." Of course the sweeping sands of time meant that the old ways of Marxist-Leninism was coming to an end and now a powerful Islamic terrorist reality was gathering in strength in many parts of the world.
Therefore, whoever said that terrorism didn't work had never met Bill Clinton because he was open to all and sundry in the pursuit of goals that were not a concern of America. The tragic reality from a British point of view is that not only had the Serbs in history been allies of the British but now the U.K. under Tony Blair was selling its soul.
The report is clearly damning and you had a political leader in Washington who was an ally of Islamic terrorists in Bosnia who had slaughtered Orthodox Christians and video-taped beheading them. Not only this, it didn't matter to individuals like Bill Clinton that the American administration was not only working with international Islamic terrorists in the heart of Europe but also the administration was in cahoots with an organization which clearly benefited from narcotics in many European cities.
Indeed, it makes you wonder why Bill Clinton isn't sent to the Hague for war crimes and this applies to tacit support of massacres and ethnic cleansing in Krajina, allowing international terrorists to have a free-hand in Bosnia and allying the American administration to a tainted narcotics organization.
Over a decade later and what do we have? Yes, a Kosovo where Serbian Orthodox Christianity is being dismantled and a Kosovo leadership implicated in organ scandals and killing witnesses.
Not surprisingly everything is unraveling but despite this implicated individuals are still allowed to enter America. Therefore, for neutrals it is galling and a crime against humanity and for individuals who were against supporting radical Islam and narcotic tainted organizations, it is justification for not allowing this issue to disappear because the legacy of the Clinton agenda continues.
If the current Serbian government is sincere about war crimes and sending Serbian individuals to the international court in the Hague, then why no pressure on individuals who supported war crimes against Serbs?
Indeed, the Serbian government should ask for former leaders like Bill Clinton to be sent to the international criminal court in the Hague, and then he should defend his actions of supporting Islamic terrorism and narcotic tainted organizations. The rat-lines don't only apply to the United States because former leaders in the United Kingdom should also be made to account because all sides committed crimes in the Balkans but only one side was mainly blamed.
Of course, the reality of democracy is that "might" wins. Therefore, the deaths of tens of thousands of innocents doesn't even enter the radar and major powers can manipulate law when it suits or to ignore international law when they desire.
The consequences of past policies in Kosovo, is that today you have a tainted leadership implicated in organ scandals and key witnesses dying in mysterious circumstances. At the same time more nations are supporting Kosovo independence despite all this. Therefore, it certainly seems that Serbian Orthodox Christian blood is not only cheap, but in truth it doesn't seem to matter amongst the elites which waged a war against a people who had been allies in both world wars.
Today in Europe you have Orthodox Christian ghettos in Kosovo and no justice for past wrongs and the ongoing reality of modern day Kosovo.
Therefore, while events are still unraveling against leaders within Kosovo, it still seems that none of this will count to nations that recognized Kosovo independence. Also, if Ratko Mladic and others are being held accountable then why aren't others like Bill Clinton?
Democracy and justice never flourishes when the system is corrupt to start with and this can be seen by the current reality in Kosovo. However, if no Serbs remain in Kosovo because of institutional discrimination, fear of entering Kosovo Albanian areas, no economic future, and so forth – then the fate accompli of Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and the organ-narcotic-terrorist tainted KLA will have won the day.


Galerie De Table Basse Bois Metal Lot 2 Tables Basses Gigognes M Tal Temmelig Drawer - Tendance Table Basse Bois Metal Manchester M Tal Home24 Fr table basse bois metal Galerie De Table Basse Bois Metal Lot 2 Tables Basses Gigognes M Tal Temmelig Drawer Inspirant Table Basse Bois Metal Industrielle Double Zero Guibox Awesome Par Table Basse Bois Metal Et M Tal - thesisgenius.com.
thesisgenius.com (https://www.thesisgenius.com) - Awesome Par Table Basse Bois Metal Et M Tal image uploaded on Sunday, November 18 2018 by . this picture size is 910 x 910. to download this image, you can hover on image above then right click and save as.
Gellery Of Awesome Par Table Basse Bois Metal Et M Tal.


text:
HomeArts & CultureBook Reviews
Arts & CultureBook ReviewsLifestyle
Fratelli Mancuso – Sicilian Muscians: "The local barber's shop was our music academy"
By Alejandro Luque
Translator's Note – The Sicilian brothers Enzo and Lorenzo Mancuso, musicians and musicologists, put on a concert in the November of 2009 to open Seville University's conference dedicated to Leonardo Sciascia on the 20th anniversary of his death. Alejandro Luque went to interview them:-
Those of us who once thought that Sicily was an island without music get an emphatic rebuttal from the Fratelli Mancuso, Enzo and Lorenzo, two brothers originating from Sutera in the central province of Caltanisetta. They have spent 25 years not only studying and recovering their musical heritage, but also giving it continuity through their new compositions.
"In Sicily, music accompanies every aspect of life. It has always given a rhythm to the daily routine, to that of the peasant or the miner…", explains Lorenzo.
Referring to the laments of the liturgical repertoire linked to Easter, as a singer and musician he also notes, "that they represent the layering of the entire Sicilian musical inheritance, with Arab, Byzantine and Christian elements. Everything came from abroad. Each colonization left a trace, and together it has finished with the development of a very particular style".
However, these songs have continued to demonstrate a marked secular character, even to the point of being always sung in the street, never in church. "The clergy have often been opposed to these songs, among the reasons is the fact that what really lies beneath the suffering of Christ (the same with the symbol of Maria) is a reflection of human pain and toil", he adds.
This element of suffering is a constant in the entire Sicilian musical tradition, "In the peasant song there are many lasting Arab melismas (the move between notes whilst singing one syllable of text). It isn't a light song style; it always has a strong dramatic element. As Sicilians we are also sons of the Greeks, and their sense of the tragic. Just look at the Sicilian dialect, a future tense doesn't exist, you have to use a circumlocution to form the future", comments Lorenzo Mancuso, although he admits that some happy melodies do exist, albeit pegged to social celebrations.
Another question relates to music associated with the mafia, which Lorenzo considers a relatively recent phenomenon. "Today, this issue is spoken about a lot, but before it was a big taboo. That never stopped poets like Ignazio Buttitta, in the Palermo of the fifties, who would write a great deal about the mafia. But it was still the rural mafia, not that of Berlusconi".
Autodidacts
Enzo and Lorenzo's training is autodidactic. "We started playing the guitar with the local barber. The barber's shop was our music academy – when they finished cutting your hair, the barbers would play the violin, the guitar, and turn their business into a music salon. We started by looking at their hands, then we dared to try the violin, the lute, and we tried to modulate our voices like the old men in the village, precisely opposite to bel canto. A troublesome voice, deliberately discordant, that makes those listening feel somewhat less relaxed", he asserts.
Later, in the seventies, they emigrated to London as foundry workers, and their music went with them. "We needed to express our reality, ours was the trampled dignity of the emigrant. So, we found salvation in these songs", he remembers.
With seven disks on the market, three recorded in Spain, the Fratelli Mancuso lead a seminar at the University of Messina which investigates the voice. They study the use of the shout in the Sicilian tradition, as a musical element that references, for example, the tragedy of the 1908 earthquake that devastated the city.
On the other hand, they defend the idea that educated music must always lend a very attentive ear to popular expression. "In just such a way Bellini composed his works, he created Cavalleria rusticana like this. And so, no doubt, did Bartok, Beethoven, Mozart…", he adds.
However, the Fratelli Mancuso believe they have reason to worry about the future of this rich legacy of song. "There is a certain fondness, but young groups try to add a certain spirit of entertainment to this music, lots of colours, danceable rhythms, a lighter version of the tradition", he comments.
"The real issue is that there isn't a trace of protection or institutional support. The current government is trying to cut as much money as possible from cultural funding. We have had some luck with the work of ethnomusicologists, like the American Alan Lomax, with very serious efforts to gather recordings of women, children and bells… We have learnt a lot listening to his compilations, but all that is in danger now", concludes Mancuso.
Fratelli Mancuso – Discography
Investigative Musicians
1952 Lorenzo born
1957 Enzo born
The 70s Emigration to England
1986 Nesci Maria (Tecnosaga) recorded in Madrid
1990 Romances de allá y de acá (Fonomusic) recorded in Madrid with Joaquín Díaz
1993 Sutera, la tradizione musicale di un paese della Sicilia (SudNord FinisTerre)
1997 Bella Maria (Amiata Records)
2003 Cantu (Amiata Records)
2004 Trazzeri
This interview by Alejandro Luque first appeared on the website, Mediterraneo Sur, (www.msur.es) in November 2009 – translation Andrew Edwards. In addition to Alejandro's literary activities he is also a percussionist, playing on the album Olla de grillos by Juan Luis Pineda.
Fratelli Mancuso
Sicilian Muscians
Sicilian Music
traditional sicilian music
Previous articleJohn Pisciotta
Next articleLa nuova passegiata? To what extent do Italians participate in cyberspace?
Alejandro Luquehttp://www.alejandroluque.com
Alejandro is a journalist who writes for the Culture section of the Spanish newspaper, El Correo de Andalucía. He is also part of the team behind the website Mediterraneo Sur. He has had two books with Sicilian themes published: the collection of short stories, La defensa siciliana and his travelogue in the footsteps of Jorge Luis Borges, Viaje a la Sicilia con un guía ciego – The Sicilian Defence is now available in English translation; the Journey is awaiting publication.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Archive for Recording studio
In the Studio With: Kidney Punch
Posted in Studio Report with tags Adam Towse, Filth Wizard, Kidney Punch, Mikey Bolton, Musical ensemble, Recording studio, Sound recording and reproduction, Torsohorse, YouTube on 17th November 2011 by Nico Davidson
It was cold and miserable Saturday morning when I set off to Powerstage Studios with two men – Well, one man known as Adam and a half man, half hobbit called Oli. For those who don't know, it was the day that I was due to head into the studio with a new and upcoming band called "Kidney Punch", formed by former Torsohorse and Filth Wizard members. Kidney Punch are a trio made up of Adam Towse [Vocals, guitar], Mikey Bolton [Drums] and Tim [Bass].
We arrived at the studio to be greeted by Mikey and Tim. Everything had been set up from Mikey's mammoth-like kit to Cu-Base, the rogram that Mikey uses for recording when in his studio. We all got ourselves settled in and Adam began the sound check for the drums, starting with the kick drum then moving onto the snare and the other parts of the kit, while Mikey sorted all the levels and did some other fancy studio work that baffles the mind of a writer like myself. After the drum sound check was done, the band proceeded to do a few quick runs of their songs so that the half-man, half-hobbit could set the levels for the bass and guitar while Mikey battered – I mean played – the drums.
Adam and Tim checking their instruments
When the recording process properly began, the drums were recorded with relatively fast speed. Four out of five of the drum tracks were recorded with a click track, though the other one didn't need a click track as it has a "natural tempo fluxuation" – Adam's words, not mine. I'm surprised I still remember that term to be honest. The rest of the day was spent eating, drinking, smoking and recording the guitar tracks – Though I did spend a good hour or so sleeping – Tiredness is not a good thing for the studio!
Drum recording
The guitar recordings took up most of the day but it was certainly entertaining listening to the songs that I've only heard in the band's rehearsals being recorded. When we left Saturday evening, the tracks were sounding great – despite the bass not being recorded on that Saturday and it clearly says something about the band if they've almost finished the recordings completely with such ease.
Kidney Punch will hopefully be booking gigs soon as well as releasing their first EP. Until then, all we can do is wait for these metal dominators to unleash their Yorkshire-styled heaviness on the UK's metal underground.
Nico Davidson
Other studio videos of the band are available from the Valkyrian Music YouTube channel.
Devil Down [Band Review] (valkyrianmusic.com)


text:
Justia Regulation Tracker Agencies And Commissions Federal Reserve System Formations of, Acquisitions by, and Mergers of Bank Holding Companies, 47951 [2019-19583]
Formations of, Acquisitions by, and Mergers of Bank Holding Companies, 47951 [2019-19583]
Download as PDF Federal Register / Vol. 84, No. 176 / Wednesday, September 11, 2019 / Notices FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Change in Bank Control Notices; Acquisitions of Shares of a Bank or Bank Holding Company The notificants listed below have applied under the Change in Bank Control Act (12 U.S.C. 1817(j)) and § 225.41 of the Board's Regulation Y (12 CFR 225.41) to acquire shares of a bank or bank holding company. The factors that are considered in acting on the notices are set forth in paragraph 7 of the Act (12 U.S.C. 1817(j)(7)). The notices are available for immediate inspection at the Federal Reserve Bank indicated. The notices also will be available for inspection at the offices of the Board of Governors. Interested persons may express their views in writing to the Reserve Bank indicated for that notice or to the offices of the Board of Governors. Comments must be received not later than September 25, 2019. A. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Gerald C. Tsai, Director, Applications and Enforcement) 101 Market Street, San Francisco, California 94105–1579: 1. The Rahman Family Trust Dated: August 7, 1997, Yahia Abdul Rahman and Magda Abdul Rahman, Trustees, Altadena, California; to retain voting shares of Greater Pacific Bancshares, and thereby indirectly retain shares of Bank of Whittier, National Association, both of Whittier, California. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 5, 2019. Yao-Chin Chao, Assistant Secretary of the Board. [FR Doc. 2019–19582 Filed 9–10–19; 8:45 am] [FR Doc. 2019–19583 Filed 9–10–19; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE P FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request Federal Trade Commission (FTC or Commission). ACTION: Notice. FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The companies listed in this notice have applied to the Board for approval, pursuant to the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956 (12 U.S.C. 1841 et seq.) (BHC Act), Regulation Y (12 CFR part 225), and all other applicable statutes and regulations to become a bank holding company and/or to acquire the assets or the ownership of, control of, or the power to vote shares of a bank or bank holding company and all of the banks and nonbanking companies owned by the bank holding company, including the companies listed below. The applications listed below, as well as other related filings required by the Board, are available for immediate 17:44 Sep 10, 2019 Jkt 247001 The FTC plans to ask the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to extend for an additional three years the current Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) clearance for information collection requirements contained in the Antitrust Improvements Act Rules (''HSR Rules'') and corresponding Notification and Report Form for Certain Mergers and Acquisitions (''Notification and Report Form''). The current clearance expires on December 31, 2019. DATES: Comments must be received on or before November 12, 2019. ADDRESSES: Interested parties may file a comment online or on paper by following the instructions in the Request for Comments part of the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section SUMMARY: Formations of, Acquisitions by, and Mergers of Bank Holding Companies jspears on DSK3GMQ082PROD with NOTICES Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 5, 2019. Yao-Chin Chao, Assistant Secretary of the Board. AGENCY: BILLING CODE P VerDate Sep<11>2014 inspection at the Federal Reserve Bank indicated. The applications will also be available for inspection at the offices of the Board of Governors. Interested persons may express their views in writing on the standards enumerated in the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. 1842(c)). If the proposal also involves the acquisition of a nonbanking company, the review also includes whether the acquisition of the nonbanking company complies with the standards in section 4 of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. 1843). Unless otherwise noted, nonbanking activities will be conducted throughout the United States. Unless otherwise noted, comments regarding each of these applications must be received at the Reserve Bank indicated or the offices of the Board of Governors not later than October 7, 2019. A. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Dennis Denney, Assistant Vice President) 1 Memorial Drive, Kansas City, Missouri 64198–0001: 1. Cowboy Bancshares, LLC, Enid, Oklahoma; to become a bank holding company through the acquisition of 100 percent of the voting shares of Bank of Kremlin, Kremlin, Oklahoma. PO 00000 Frm 00021 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 47951 below. Write ''HSR Rules PRA Comment: FTC File No. P072108'' on your comment, and file your comment online at https://www.regulations.gov by following the instructions on the webbased form. If you prefer to file your comment on paper, mail your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite CC–5610 (Annex J), Washington, DC 20580, or deliver your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW, 5th Floor, Suite 5610 (Annex J), Washington, DC 20024. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Robert L. Jones, Assistant Director, Premerger Notification Office, Bureau of Competition, Federal Trade Commission, Room CC–5301, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20580, or by telephone to (202) 326– 2740. Under the PRA, 44 U.S.C. 3501–3521, federal agencies must obtain approval from OMB for each collection of information they conduct or sponsor. ''Collection of information'' means agency requests or requirements that members of the public submit reports, keep records, or provide information to a third party. 44 U.S.C. 3502(3); 5 CFR 1320.3(c). As required by section 3506(c)(2)(A) of the PRA, the FTC is providing this opportunity for public comment before requesting that OMB extend the existing PRA clearance for the HSR Rules and Notification and Report Form, 16 CFR parts 801–803 (OMB Control Number 3084–0005). Section 7A of the Clayton Act (''Act''), 15 U.S.C. 18a, as amended by the HartScott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, Public Law 94–435, 90 Stat. 1390, requires all persons contemplating certain mergers or acquisitions to file notification with the Commission and the Assistant Attorney General and to wait a designated period of time before consummating such transactions. Congress empowered the Commission, with the concurrence of the Assistant Attorney General, to require ''that the notification . . . be in such form and contain such documentary material and information . . . as is necessary and appropriate'' to enable the agencies ''to determine whether such acquisitions may, if consummated, violate the antitrust laws.'' 15 U.S.C. 18a(d). Congress similarly granted rulemaking authority to, inter alia, ''prescribe such other rules as may be necessary and appropriate to carry out the purposes of this section.'' Id. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: E:\FR\FM\11SEN1.SGM 11SEN1
[Federal Register Volume 84, Number 176 (Wednesday, September 11, 2019)]
[Page 47951]
Formations of, Acquisitions by, and Mergers of Bank Holding
The companies listed in this notice have applied to the Board for
approval, pursuant to the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956 (12 U.S.C.
1841 et seq.) (BHC Act), Regulation Y (12 CFR part 225), and all other
applicable statutes and regulations to become a bank holding company
and/or to acquire the assets or the ownership of, control of, or the
power to vote shares of a bank or bank holding company and all of the
banks and nonbanking companies owned by the bank holding company,
including the companies listed below.
The applications listed below, as well as other related filings
required by the Board, are available for immediate inspection at the
Federal Reserve Bank indicated. The applications will also be available
for inspection at the offices of the Board of Governors. Interested
persons may express their views in writing on the standards enumerated
in the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. 1842(c)). If the proposal also involves the
acquisition of a nonbanking company, the review also includes whether
the acquisition of the nonbanking company complies with the standards
in section 4 of the BHC Act (12 U.S.C. 1843). Unless otherwise noted,
nonbanking activities will be conducted throughout the United States.
Unless otherwise noted, comments regarding each of these
applications must be received at the Reserve Bank indicated or the
offices of the Board of Governors not later than October 7, 2019.
A. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Dennis Denney, Assistant
Vice President) 1 Memorial Drive, Kansas City, Missouri 64198-0001:
1. Cowboy Bancshares, LLC, Enid, Oklahoma; to become a bank holding
company through the acquisition of 100 percent of the voting shares of
Bank of Kremlin, Kremlin, Oklahoma.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 5,
Yao-Chin Chao,
Assistant Secretary of the Board.
BILLING CODE P


RPS tackles your toughest motion applications.
The innovative, new Precision Roller Pinion System (RPS) from Nexen handles your most demanding linear motion control applications. Simply put, no other motion system offers the combination of speed, positional accuracy, stroke length, load capacity and zero backlash performance. Not to mention it's also extremely quiet, 99% efficient, and so refined it can run without lubrication. Replace inferior rack and pinion, ball screw and belt drive technologies with higher performance and lower maintenance solution.
See also: Nexen Group, Inc.


text:
Are Big Rubs Made by Big Bucks?
For archers seeking out deer sign, it doesn't get much more obvious than rubs. In most cases, rubs start showing up in mid-September when bucks begin to feel a spike in testosterone. It's a visual and chemical way for deer to communicate: shredding the bark off a tree while leaving behind scent from their forehead glands.
There's a lot of lore when it comes to rubs, as they've been captivating outdoorsmen for centuries. You'll often hear hunters speak to how bucks will destroy telephone poles, eat their velvet when rubbing it off, and tear up trees late season to get rid of uncomfortable antlers.
Another regular piece of old-timer wisdom is that big rubs mean big bucks are in the area. It seems practical enough to envision that there's a booner responsible for messing up the biggest of trees, but I haven't been able to confirm it myself. Instead, I consulted some big buck killers who I thought might have good insight, as well as checked with what science might have to say on the subject.
Mike Fitzgerald, of Bowhunting.com in Minnesota, had this input on rubs and bucks. "I think there is some credence to the theory that big bucks make big rubs, though I don't believe that the inverse is true. If I find an area with a handful of rubs on larger trees, I get pretty excited and assume a big boy is around. But with smaller rubs, it's harder to tell."
Clinton Fawcett, of Bowhunt or Die in Illinois, has similar feelings about rubbed up trees. "In my opinion, big bucks are responsible for getting the big rubs started. After they have them established, I feel like any buck that's in the mood and attracted to the sign will use it. Over the years, I've hunted some pretty big rub lines and have experienced a lot of different caliber bucks using them. I don't think the little guys are able to start the biggest rubs, but once they are established it's an open door."
Lee Ellis, of Suburban Bowhunter in Georgia, believes that big rubs are more indicative of a deer's personality. "From what I've seen, a big buck is just as likely to rub on a small tree as he is to rub on a big tree. I think rub size and rub quantity is more about how aggressive individual whitetails are. Some bucks are bullies, and will create all kinds of rubs that are big and small. Other bucks are timid, and won't participate much in sign making. Giant rubs still get my attention, but I don't put much stock into them."
Science doesn't seem to have as strong of feelings as hunters, as it turns out little research exists on rub size in correlation to antler size. However, there is some other info out there that I think might be relevant to answering the question.
One piece of notable research is from Dr. Karl V. Miller at the University of Georgia, where he investigated rubbing activity. He says that one mature buck can make 1,000 to 1,200 rubs per year. Over a three month period, that's about a dozen rubs a day. Yearling bucks, on the other hand, only make about 400 to 500 rubs a year. So, hunters should realize that more times than not, rubs are being formed by deer older than 1.5 years old.
Another bit of useful info comes from Bryan Kinkel at the Quality Deer Management Association, who found that "edges" are the most likely places for deer to create rubs. These edges are considered the first 20 meters within a treed area, with the best edges for rubs being near food sources.
While science doesn't have much to say about rub size, it will confirm that bigger deer are more likely to make them, and they're most likely to show up near edges. Those pinch points and funnels along fields are the best place to find torn up trees, and maybe find a mature buck.
Feature image by Spencer Neuharth.
Whitetail Deer ,
When Should You Start Scouting for Whitetails?
Mark Kenyon, Wired To Hunt
With whitetail seasons wrapping up across much of the country, one of the questions I get most...
Fact Checker: Do Outdoor Stores Pay Big Money for Big Mounts?
Back 40 Episode 8: Cal Hunts the Farm
After five months of dedication to the Back 40, every corner of the property is connected to a...


text:
WinGate Wilderness Therapy
PathPurposeLife
Contact Us/Get Help
Online Application/Parent Portal
Wilderness Resources
Wilderness Therapy
Boys Boarding Schools
Girls Boarding Schools
The WinGate Difference
Why Wilderness
Adolescent Program
Young Adult Program
Contact WinGate Wilderness Therapy
Boot Camps For Troubled Teens Russellville, AL
Home Boot Camps For Troubled Teens Boot Camps For Troubled Teens AL Boot Camps For Troubled Teens Russellville, AL
Boot Camps For Teens from Russellville, AL
WinGate Wilderness Therapy is a premier Outdoor Therapeutic Adventure Program, chosen by parents as an alternative to Boot Camps For Teens from Russellville, AL. With a combined history of over eighty years of wilderness therapy experience, the treatment counselors here at WinGate recognize the complexities of how to properly administer treatment for troubled teens.
Fixed among the magnificent and world famous red mountains of Southern Utah, WinGate is recognized nationally as a model "therapeutic transitional living" wilderness program. Although not a Boot Camp, WinGate is a "parent-preferred" alternative to these programs.
No research-based conclusions have been found that "favor" the boot camp experience. These results are especially true when taking into consideration the boot camps' fundamental purpose of "rehabilitation." When compared to former prison inmates, the "recidivism rates" for boot camp participants (referring to a person's "chance of relapse" back into criminal behavior) are roughly the same.
Most parents don't know that the "boot camp program" began years ago as an adult-only, "shock incarceration" program designed for "first-time" offenders. The purpose of this boot camp experience was to make the "time served" so shocking and abhorrent, the offender would be "scared straight" into model behavior, to avoid another sentence.
Consequently, more mental health specialists are pointing their sharp criticism toward Boot Camps for being "too harsh while not addressing the adolescent's real underlying psychological problems through proper counseling and therapy."
Wilderness adventure programs, such as ours, are considerably more productive when teen "transformation and restoration" is the goal. At WinGate, we teach both independent living skills and individual accountability, which is the framework upon which to construct a life of lasting health and balance.
WinGate's "research-validated" approach to wilderness-based treatment causes our work to WORK! The peaceful, distraction-free atmosphere of our wilderness area benefits even the most "treatment-resistant" and "rebellious" adolescents. You can reach us immediately at (800) 560-1599.
Boot Camps For Kids From Russellville, AL
Out of sheer desperation, some parents will turn to teen boot camps in an attempt to protect their teen from incarceration or even the possibility of death. However, before sending a teenager to a boot camp facility, one should do their homework on boot camps vs. wilderness therapy or residential treatment. Like most facilities and programs, not all boot camps are created equal. You should know that there have been numerous incidents of death among the "less than adequate" boot camps. The tragic combination of corporal punishment administered by poorly trained staff, sadly, has led to the deaths of several teens while attending a boot camp.
You can feel comfortable and confident that Wingate, as a premier Wilderness Therapy Program, licensed by the State of Utah, is a long-time member of the National Association of Therapeutic Schools and Programs (NATSAP). This accreditation and affiliation is a resource and beacon to both parents and professionals that WinGate provides the highest quality services to the students and families we serve.
In essence, our hope and goal is to help shape a "heart of peace," which replaces the "heart of war." Wilderness Therapy for troubled teens is unique in that there are consistent and continual opportunities for observation and intervention. These moments are uninterrupted by the usual day-to-day disruptions and distractions found at a traditional residential treatment program setting.
The wilderness atmosphere produces for our counselors, twenty-four hours a day, the epitome of experiential treatment blended with both individual and group therapy sessions conducted by our staff of therapists.
Teen Boot Camps
In "military training camp" fashion, teen boot camps are created to teach both structure and discipline to "wayward" young people. This "instruction" is generally performed through the application of "military-style" control which includes strenuous physical activity. The objective of boot camp staffers is to "challenge the camper" with the "hope" of instilling confidence and self-reliance.
However, it's critical for parents to recognize that boot camps have recently come under severe criticism, by mental health authorities and practitioners, for being "too harsh while not addressing the juvenile's underlying psychological issues via proper counseling and therapy."
We have come to know that participants in "wilderness treatment" possess a greater capacity for attention, thus enabling a more focused and thriving process for healing. We witness our students growing closer to their peers while developing a stronger bond with the counselors as well.
The peaceful environment of the outdoors enables the students to gain more quickly an insight into their previous, unhealthy behaviors, allowing them to make proper and adequate changes. These nurturing, yet challenging conditions, allows our students to gain perspective, grow up, and achieve an improved level of maturity all while addressing behavioral obstacles and issues.
Juvenile Boot Camps
In the past, a few private boot camps and military academies have offered "scholarship" or "grant" programs for families in need of financial assistance. However, these "grant" programs usually turn out to be "loans," disguised as "financial aid," to be paid back in monthly installments. What's more, most of these boot camp programs are extinct and are therefore hard to find.
In short, free boot camps for troubled teens typically do not exist. However, there are state-funded boot camps that can be utilized only if your teen has been or is in the state juvenile system. Although state-funded boot camps may be the only financially viable option for some families, this option causes serious drawbacks worth considering.
Therapeutic healing and counseling are certainly not emphasized at Juvenile Boot Camps. The boot camp staffers are not licensed nor are they trained to administer guidance for the "emotional issues" and "psychological disorders" that are normally at the root of all behavioral problems in adolescents. These boot camps offer only discipline and authoritarian control. In the end, boot camps resemble "jails" more than "therapeutic interventions."
At WinGate Wilderness Therapy, we include the parents and family in your struggling teen's progress and therapy. Over the years, we have served thousands of boys and girls from Russellville, AL and from all over the country. Our track record has demonstrated to cause results that are life changing.
We know that troubled teens can become healthy, independent adults, and can develop as strong people motivated for success. Call WinGate Wilderness Therapy today at (800) 560-1599.
Mental Health National Partnership for Parents of Adolescents from Russellville, AL
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA): Learn how SAMHSA helps people access treatments and services. SAMHSA is the agency within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services leading public health efforts for the purposes of advancing the behavioral health of the country.
National Council for Behavioral Health: The NCBH is the unifying voice of America's addictions treatment and mental health institutions. With over 750,000 staff members, and their 2,000 plus member organizations, NCBH serves more than 8 million of our country's most vulnerable citizens.
Our students experience the changing heart which will lead to a healthy, balanced life. Call us today at (800) 560-1599
Template 7 TOP
Summer Camps for Hurting Teens from Russellville, AL
You may be the parent of a troubled teen inRussellville, AL. If so, you are likely experiencing the stress and anxiety of having a teenager in a situation you know is dangerous, but don't know what to do about it.
Your troubled teen might be able to be helped at Dayspring Behavioral Health, but that might not be the best answer for your son or daughter.
You may be in the same kind of denial that you've noticed in your teenage son or daughter. Perhaps you don't see that the problems are creating a real stress in your family. The hard truth remains; the behavior and difficulties of one family member almost always create equally serious difficulties in other family members.
Equally critical to the successful restoration of your troubled teen is the support and cooperation of the rest of the family.
That can be a tough road to follow. The loved one who has caused such hurt and pain now needs your total and genuine support. Call WinGate Wilderness Therapy at (800) 560-1599 to get help today.
Your troubled teen might be able to be helped at XXX, but that might not be the best answer for your son or daughter.
Please select your age range
under 18 18-64 65+
First Name Last Name Email Address Phone Number Message
Why Boot Camps Are a Bad Choice
At WinGate, we believe that wilderness therapy is an effective form of treatment because it combines established therapeutic practices with a wilderness...
See The WinGate Difference For Yourself.
Discover Your Path. Discover Your Purpose. Discover Your Life.
Call Today to Find Out More.
Repairing Relationships With Your Teenager
Building and maintaining a relationship with your teen takes time, attention, and effort. It can seem like things change overnight as children enter their teen...
How Does a Parent Know When it's Time for...
It can be difficult to tell when an adolescent's behavior has crossed the line from typical teen behavior to indications of mental or emotional imbalance....
The Importance of Explaining To A Troubled Teen Why They...
Professional Help for Troubled Teens | A Tough Sell Fact: A troubled teen who continuously acts out in negative behaviors is just as likely to ruin their...
Youth Trends
Internet Addiction is Very Real: Find Out if Your Family...
Do you constantly feel the need to spend most of your time online? Have you lost interest in other hobbies and activities? Do you experience withdrawal symptoms...
The Real Healing Power Of The Wilderness
Help In A Crisis There's a psychological element involved with at-risk youth that requires them to seek outward assistance beyond the ability of parents or...
Young Woman With Beard Happily Defies Modern Concept of...
Harnaam Kaur is a lovely young woman from England, with dark skin and dark eyes. She uses mascara on her thick lashes and wraps herself in an Indian robe...
Therapy News
7 Signs that May Suggest Your Shyness May Be a Social...
Are you shy, introverted, and find it difficult, even suffocating, to engage in any socially-engaging situation? If so, your shyness may be symptomatic of a much...
Teen Depression and Suicide: How to Talk To Your Adolescent
What is the state of your troubled teen's mental health? All teens often suffer from stress, sadness, and depression to some extent, but are they are risk...
How Common is Depression and Anxiety
Talking about mental health can be challenging. One thing to keep in mind is that mental health concerns are not unusual. Many people deal with them over the...
Residential Treatment CentersTherapeutic Services for TeensBoarding Schools for BoysBoarding Schools for GirlsPrograms for Troubled TeensSummer Camps For TeensGroup Homes for TeensWilderness Therapy Programs
Wilderness Philosophy
Managing And Coping With Anger
Anger is one of the basic emotions hardwired into the human brain. Anger can sometimes be scary – for both the person experiencing it and people around him or..
Helping Troubled Teens Develop Self-Reliance
A key trait that must be developed to help troubled teens overcome their issues is self-reliance. Many troubled teens will go through life depending on others..
Why Wilderness Therapy Works
Wilderness therapy is often the last option loved ones think of when an adolescent or teen is in trouble – but it is one of the most effective. Done correctly,..
Treatment Philosophy
EmailContact Us/Get Help
WinGate Wilderness Therapy was formed by a group of seasoned professionals who have teamed up to become owners and operators of an innovative wilderness program, based on solid wilderness therapy principles. WinGate combines clinical expertise, the best practices of wilderness therapy, and an unmatched approach to treatment to produce lasting and internalized change. WinGate serves both troubled teens and struggling young adults.
WinGate is the best wilderness therapy program with residential therapy and behavioral therapy for troubled boys and girls, as well as for struggling young men and young women. Designed to restore young people struggling with issues such as; anger, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), attention deficit, attention deficit disorder (ADD), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), substance abuse, depression, reactive attachment disorder (RAD), intermittent explosive disorder (IED), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), eating disorders, self-harm, or rebellion, just to name a few.
Located in Southern Utah, in the Grand Staircase Escalante National Monument we have served families from all over the US. Most of our parents and students come from California, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Maine, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
WinGate Wilderness Therapy © 2019 |
6746 East U.S. 89,
Kanab, UT 84741


Obituary for Alfreda M. Wilczynski (nee Walesiak) | Castle Hill Funeral Home, LLC.
Alfreda M. Wilczynski (nee Walesiak), age 83, of Calumet City, Illinois passed away August 25, 2018. She is survived by her beloved children: Paul (Peggy) Wilczynski, Karen (Dave) Strell and John Wilczynski; cherished grandchildren: Cory (Justin) Straub, Nicholas (Dara) Wilczynski, Andrew Wilczynski, Phoebe Strell and Michael (Lauren) Wilczynski; precious great-grandchild Max Straub; numerous dear nieces and nephews. Alfreda was preceded in death by her husband Marion; sons: Phillip and James; sisters: Edwina, Dolores and Stella; and step-brothers: Norbert and John Nagy.
Funeral Services will be Thursday, August 30, 2018 at 11:30 a.m. from Castle Hill Funeral Home: 248 155th Place, Calumet City, Illinois 60409 to St. Andrew the Apostle Catholic Church for a 12:00 noon Mass of Christian Burial followed by Interment Services at Holy Cross Cemetery. Visitation also Thursday morning from 9:30 a.m. until time of services at the funeral home.
Alfreda was a lifetime parishioner of St. Andrew the Apostle Church. For information (708)862-4480 or visit castlehillfuneralhome.com for online guestbook.


The ARUCAD Industrial Design programme fosters a critical, analytical and creative approach to designing products, services and experiences. With the use of our digital and fabrication facilities including the FabLab, these resources will empower our student designers with the knowledge, skills and creative confidence to resolve design problems with functional and sustainable product design solutions that are relevant to needs of people, society and business today.
Combining industry-run projects with academic learning, we ensure that you have the skills necessary to make a significant contribution to your chosen field of professional design practice.
He studied Classical Archaeology, Art History and History at the universities of Trier, Köln and Bologna from 1993/94 to 2005 when he completed his PhD thesis in Classical Archaeology in Trier.
He contributed to an international exhibition about Constantine I., held in the Rheinisches Landesmuseum Trier in 2007. From 2006 onward he has been teaching architectural history and art history in North Cyprus, as an Associate Professor since 2012.
He conducted a funded research project on architectural decoration in Cyprus and was a researcher in a Tübitak project on the vernacular architecture of Louroujina village. Since 2016 he has been conducting a survey project in the Karpass district, tracing remains of ancient and early medieval settlement and economy. His research covers also the modern architecture of Cyprus, especially of the colonial and early post-colonial periods.
Upon graduating with a degree in Ceramic and Glass from Mimar Sinan Fine Arts University, she obtained her first Masters from Dokuz Eylul University in the same field. She completed her second Masters in Fine Art at Bretton Hall, University of Leeds (UK) and her PhD in Glass from Edinburgh College of Art, Heriot-Watt University (Scotland), on the subject of Turkish Glass Culture and Its Relationship with Contemporary Glass and Education. Apart from her long-standing career as an academic she has also taken part in various exhibitions and workshops in Turkey and abroad. Her works combine glass and ceramics, and she has a strong interest in traditional pottery making –ceramic cook stoves in particular, especially focusing on South Asia.
Born in 1987; Ayşenur Ceren Asmaz is graduate of Anadolu University Faculty of Fine Arts Glass Department (2010) and she received M.A. from Institute of Fine Arts Glass Art of same university (2013). In 2013, she was appointed as Research Assistant at Uludağ University Ceramic and Glass Design Department. During 2014-2018, she worked at Dokuz Eylül University, Institute of Fine Arts Ceramics and Glass Design Department during her Ph.D and completed her Ph.D in 2018. Besides various symposiums, biennials and exhibitions, artist has a solo exhibition named 'İnsanın kanadı; gayretidir' and three awards, one of which is in sculpture and the other two in ceramic field. Her works are featured in the collections of South Korean International Macsabal Museum and Applied Art Museum at the Stieglitz Academy.
Antony has over two decades of teaching, management & leadership experience in Higher Education in the UK and internationally, he is Advisor and External Examiner at several universities for innovative Post Graduate programmes and as a practitioner he has worked in Architecture, Design and related Creative Industries.
His consultancy and research focus on developing new ways of unlocking creativity and innovation in business and education inspired by the application of Design Thinking, FABLAB and LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY®. Antony has worked with Virtual and Augmented Reality systems since 1995 and headed up the Virtual Environment Design Research Unit at the University of Teesside in the UK. In Australia he worked with the Sydney Metro, the armed forces and automotive industries on virtual simulations.
He recently establishment the first official FABLAB in Cyprus and now integrating its methods, practices and ethos into Arts and Design academic curricula and supporting and motivating creativity and innovation in the wider community and working with the global FabLab and Maker Movement on collaborative projects.
Antony has significant experience in the application of digital technologies in the cultural and heritage sector, regularly participating in archaeological excavations around the world and presenting papers on this topic at a wide range of international conferences.
Antony is a Principal Fellow of the Higher Education Academy UK and an Associate of the Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education UK and is regularly engaged in establishing international collaborations and partnerships for Higher Education.
Tobia Repossi, studied Architecture at Politecnico di Milano and Product Design at Kunstakademiets Arkitektskole in Copenhagen.
He is a registered architect with almost twenty years of experience in architecture, interior and product design. He worked for major Chinese market leading companies among which Tencent, ZTE, Huawei, TCL, as well as European and American brands.
He designed shops, corners, showrooms, hotels, exhibitions, museums, offices and products for interior and outdoor, as well as furniture, electronic appliances and accessories.
His works have been selected for the Compasso d'Oro Prize, Design Index, Mediastars, Modern Decoration Award, A'Design Award and Red Dot Award and published in magazines and newspapers. He's ranked number 22 in the world for Electronic Appliances by DAC, number 40 designer in China by World Designer Rankings and 106 in the world.
He's been teaching Design at Politecnico di Milano Faculty of Design and IED (European Institute of Design) and Director of the Innovation Hub of Arucad Arkin University of Creative Arts and Design. He co-founded IDA (Italian Design Association) that reunites all the Italian professionals in China and promotes the culture of Italian design.
He established successful design and communication companies like ZonaUno design Agency, TR & Partners in Shenzhen and Mobili in Cartone a cardboard furniture company that sells products all over Europe.


text:
Благовіщення є однією з найпоширеніших тем християнського мистецтва. Перші зображення датуються періодом раннього християнства. У римських катакомбах Прісцилли знаходиться найстаріша з відомих фресок Благовіщення. Вона датується 4-м століттям.

У сцені зображенні Діва Марія і ангел Гавриїлом, який повідомляє про непорочне зачаття Сина Божого. Вона є однією з основних у зображення Діви Марії і першою про життя Ісуса Христа. Фрески, що зображують цю сцену, з'являлися в римсько-католицьких маріанських церквах протягом століть, і це тема, якою займаються багато художників.

Середньовіччя та Відродження
Сюжет був особливо популярним у середні віки і епоху Відродження, він з'являється у творчості майже всіх великих майстрів. Фігури Діви Марії та архангела Гавриїла були улюбленими предметами римсько-католицького маріанського мистецтва. Роботи на цю тему створили Сандро Боттічеллі, Леонардо да Вінчі, Караваджо, Дуччо ді Буонінсеня, Ян ван Ейк, Мурільо та тисячі інших художників.

Композиція зображень консервативні, Гавриїл, як правило, стоїть ліворуч, обличчям до Діви. Вона, зазвичай, сидить або стоїть на колінах (принаймні на пізніших зображеннях). Як правило, Гавриїл зображений майже в профіль, тоді як Богородиця звернена вперед.

Візантійський обряд
Ікони візантійського обряду, зазвичай, навіть більш регламентовані, ніж середньовічні католицькі зображення. Богородиця майже завжди знаходиться праворуч, зазвичай вона стоїть або сидить на троні. Ці стилі, як правило, копіювались на Заході, приблизно до 13 століття.

Через природну композицію сцени у вигляді двох фігур, спрямованих один на одного, суб'єкта часто застосовували в оздобленні диптиху або тимпанеуму (оздобленої арки над дверним отвором ). У церквах візантійського обряду Благовіщення зазвичай зображають на Святих Дверях (декоративний дверний проріз, що веде від нефу до святині ), а на Заході дві фігури зустрічаються також на різних поверхнях, на зовнішніх панелях поліптихів.

Примітки

Джерела

 Благовіщення Пресвятої Богородиці  // Українська Релігієзнавча Енциклопедія
 Товкайло Т. Благовіщення // Енциклопедичний словник символів культури України / За заг. ред. В. П. Коцура, О. І. Потапенка, В. В. Куйбіди. — 5-е вид. — Корсунь-Шевченківський: ФОП Гавришенко В. М., 2015. — С. 69–70. — 912 с. ISBN 978-966-2464-48-1
 Микола Голубець: Мистецтво  // Ізборник
 Непорочне зачаття Діви Марії  // Credo

Іконографія Діви Марії

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The first piece of advice you need to know is keeping a homework journal. This organization tool will ensure you don't forget important due dates, assignments, and more. Have one for each class and make sure you review and update your journal each day. Once this turns into a habit, you'll find it easy to tackle any assignment on any given day.
If you regularly find yourself with hours and hours of homework each day, then it's in your best interest to try and get it started earlier in the day. This is not always a luxury students have, but if you find even 10 or 15 minutes each day between your classes to do some work, you'll notice that you don't have to spend as much time later in the evening.
If you hire a best assignment help agency you will learn that the most effective way of working through hours of difficult and boring college assignments is to create a plan and to stick with it throughout the evening. Before starting your work, review the assignment and visualize yourself completing each section. Create a list of tasks and cross each item off as you complete it. Stay on track and you'll be done in about half the time.
Sometimes you feel the need for nursing assignment help not because you can't understand its concepts, but because you aren't allowing yourself the time to take a mental break or satiate hunger. It's just as important to take care of yourself as it is to study and work hard. Researchers have found that students can generally only stay focused on an educational task for a little less than an hour. Make sure you take breaks and have some healthy snacks prepared and close by when you start to feel your stomach grumble.
Finally, do not hesitate to get help with assignment writing from a professional agency if you are feeling overwhelmed or have put off your assignment until the last minute. Each day, thousands of students hire professional agencies to help them with a variety of tasks – it's become so common that hundreds of new agencies launch each year. Search for an agency that specializes in the same subjects you take, and always choose an expert with plenty of experience.
Even if you decided to get coding assignment help from a professional agency, it's a good idea that put the effort into creating a good work space. Clear out the top and inside of your desk. Make sure the space you have to do homework is free of clutter and that you get rid of anything that would get in the way of you working in total peace and quiet.
We are all surrounded by several distractions throughout the day. Just think about how often you get up to get a drink, eat some food, watch whatever it is you just heard on the TV, and check your online social profiles. It's really easy for any of these time-wasters to get in the way of completing the things we actually need to do. Proactively remove those distractions from your work space and stay focused on the assignment.
Now you have some advice from experts at AssignmentGeek.com that I tried with success when doing my help assignment. Homework – across all subjects – just got easier and more interesting, resulting in better grades. For the really tough stuff you should still look out for good assignment help cheap. A lot of professional agencies offer a number of discounts that can make hiring them a great investment. Ask around for some recommendations and always do a little of your own research to ensure you hire the absolute best.


This is a placeholder page for Barlon Antoine, which means this person is not currently on this site. We do suggest using the tools below to find Barlon Antoine.
You are visiting the placeholder page for Barlon Antoine. This page is here because someone used our placeholder utility to look for Barlon Antoine. We created this page automatically in hopes Barlon Antoine would find it. If you are not Barlon Antoine, but are an alumni of Abbeville High School Abbeville, LA, register on this site for free now.


From the Album Poate Fata. Go Unlimited Start your day free trial. Add gift card or promotion code. Add to MP3 Cart.
Our music is available here so, tune in and enjoy it! Amazon Second Chance Pass it on, trade it in, give it a second life.
You have exceeded the maximum number of MP3 items in your MP3 cart. Share Facebook Twitter Pinterest. Amazon Music Stream millions of songs.
Add to MP3 Cart. Give Album or Song as Gift. Page 1 of 1 Start over Page 1 of 1. Get fast, free shipping with Amazon Prime. Amazon Inspire Digital Educational Resources.
Subscribe to your favourite music: Add the video to your site with the embed code above. Afghan Pashto Hit Songs Album Anda Adam la Dan Capatos face nunta. We post new amazing videos and hits at least twice a week. All recent searches will be deleted.
With more than 20 years of experience in the music industry, Roton earned its position in the top of the most important labels in Romania. Amazon Renewed Refurbished products with a warranty. Be the first to review this item.
There's a problem loading this menu right now. Sign in Continue with Facebook Continue with Google.


Enjoy this amazing 4 Basket MultiKai Cooker with Trolley and Wooden Side Benches – enabling you to cook for up to 40 people! PLUS, get a MultiKai Apron and Manuka Tablets for FREE!
COOKER COMES WITH: Lid and thermostat, hotplate and heat shield, cooking chambers, baskets, 2 ring burner on burner stand with regulator and hose, trolley with gas bottle tray, 4 lockable castor wheels and 2 removable side benches (kwila).


text:
Despite A Promising Beginning, "Wonder Woman 1984" Falls into the Same Old Traps
12/28/2020 by Aviva Dove-Viebahn
My problem with WW84 isn't so much the plot itself—although it's pretty muddled—but the way the machinations of the plot rest on gendered characterizations we really shouldn't have to put up with anymore in 2020.
(Still from Wonder Woman / DC Comics and Warner Bros.)
Spoiler Alert: This review includes significant details from the plot of Wonder Woman 1984.
Throughout her almost 80-year history, Wonder Woman has always been rife with contradictions.
A foreigner from a hidden island who becomes a defender of American democracy. A girl growing up, surrounded only by women, who falls in love with the first man she meets and leaves her family and culture behind with little hesitation. A highly trained Amazon warrior who is the "most beautiful woman you've ever seen" (as Etta Candy extols in Patty Jenkins' 2017 Wonder Woman). An unstoppable fighter but also a champion of love and kindness.
It's with an understanding of these contradictions that I can say I love Wonder Woman in her many incarnations. Whether campy or serious—as she's been represented in turn across media, from comics and animated children's programing to television and film—Wonder Woman functions as a recognizable symbol of women's empowerment. She was one of the first women in the superhero pantheon and is certainly the most well-known. Many consider her a feminist icon. She has been featured on the cover of Ms. five times—in part because she's such a potent symbol.
I say this to acknowledge that one film cannot make or break Wonder Woman's ethos. All too often, media centered around women bears an untenable burden: one misstep, one failed concept, and detractors leap from the shadows to proclaim absurdities like no one watches women-led actions films (easy enough to refute since 2017's Wonder Woman and 2019's Captain Marvel both broke box office records). I'm simply not interested in that universalizing nonsense, and you shouldn't be either.
That said, I was so wildly disappointed by Wonder Woman 1984—released simultaneously on HBO Max and in theaters on Dec. 25—that we should question what allows a film to go so spectacularly astray from what is, in my estimation, the heart of the character and her appeal.
A few good things first: The opening ten minutes of the film are riveting. The young Diana (Lilly Aspell) is exceptional, and the flashback Olympiad set on her island home Themyscira is beautifully imagined and shot. It's equally wonderful to see Connie Nielsen and Robin Wright reprise their roles as Queen Hippolyta and Antiope (Diana's mother and aunt, respectively).
The brightly colored nostalgia of the 1980s that saturates the remainder of the film sets a welcome lighter tone. Wonder Woman (2017), which took place during World War I, was fairly somber and grey—an atmosphere befitting Diana's origin story but unnecessary for the sequel. The 2017 film was a smart and earnest reimagining of Diana as an Amazon princess coming into her power and learning to fight for love and humanity. I like how WW84 shifts the focus onto Truth as its overarching theme, giving us a Trump-esque villain in Maxwell Lord (Pedro Pascal) who always wants more, more, more (power, money, status) no matter the cost.
Actually, the first half hour of WW84 unfolds auspiciously. Diana (Gal Gadot) works for the Smithsonian as a cultural anthropologist sixty-plus years after the events of the 2017 film. She is well-liked, effortlessly glamorous and smart, but also lonely, performing her hero work in secret isolation.
Enter Diana's new colleague Barbara Minerva (Kristen Wiig), a somewhat clichéd mousy gemologist who attempts to ingratiate herself to her coworkers even though no one seems to remember her name. Acting-wise, Gadot and Wiig are beyond reproach, especially considering the material they're given. They make a terrific pair on screen, even as Barbara shifts from friend and coworker into the villain Cheetah.
The trouble for the film begins as the central plot kicks into gear, revolving around a magical stone that will grant anyone who touches it one wish but extracts a toll. Both Barbara and Diana inadvertently make their wishes while trying to uncover the stone's origins, not realizing the stone's power, before Maxwell Lord steals it for himself.
Barbara wishes to be like Diana, envying her beauty and charisma but also unwittingly acquiring Diana's demi-goddess strength and speed. Diana wishes for the return of the love-of-her-life, pilot Steve Trevor (Chris Pine), accidentally sacrificing her powers in the process.
If you found this article helpful, please consider supporting our independent reporting and truth-telling for as little as $5 per month.
There are many things to nitpick in WW84, but I'm comfortable with the fact that superhero movies require a significant suspension of disbelief and am more than willing to embrace some cheesiness and chaos. My problem isn't so much the plot itself (although it's pretty muddled), but the way the machinations of the plot rest on gendered characterizations we really shouldn't have to put up with anymore in 2020.
So I'll focus my critique on two major issues that are particularly galling, since they're indicative of the ways films starring female protagonists run astray—often because writers, producers and directors think these elements are either necessary or expected components for narratives centering around powerful women.
The first issue concerns the romance plotline between Diana and Steve, which is shockingly heteropatriarchal and overtakes the film, fixing Diana into a position that makes little sense given her character. Diana allows her reunion with Steve to derail an investigation that, had she pursued it, may have prevented the destruction Maxwell is able to unleash with the stone.
She is also all but willing to accept the loss of her powers if it means she can keep Steve by her side. (Even more troubling, Steve's soul is inhabiting another man's body the whole time, which doesn't seem to concern them).
Diana and Steve's reunion in WW84 is predicated on the idea that Diana has been pining for her dead lover for six decades, even though she only knew him for a few weeks at most before his death. Why Diana mourns Steve so intensely—more than her Aunt Antiope, who died around the same time, or her mother, whom she has no reason to believe she'll ever see again—is a mystery. Even Steve worries about the obsessive nature of her fixation on him, urging Diana to stop isolating herself in her grief. Ultimately, his logic prevails over her emotions, and it is Steve who rescues Diana by convincing her to let him go in order to reclaim her powers and save the world.
The second issue is how the film undermines its own purported intentions, as seen in the opening flashback, in the way it represents the relationship between women and power. When young Diana, clearly faster and nimbler than the other Amazons, takes a shortcut during a race to make up for a youthful mistake, Antiope stops her from crossing the finish line, telling her, "No true hero is born from lies."
However, WW84 offers two versions of women's power, both seemingly divorced from the lessons of Diana's youth and from her role as a hero. Barbara-qua-Cheetah acquires misbegotten powers from the stone and wields them with vicious impunity. When merely imbued with Diana's charisma, Barbara embodies the stereotype of a woman who uses her femininity to seduce and beguile; once she gains Diana's power she becomes even worse, unable to control her rage and savagely protecting her power regardless of the consequences.
Case in point: In an early scene, Barbara is accosted by a man as she walks home in the dark; she's rescued by Diana, who flings the man aside and then offers to teach Barbara self-defense in order to explain her preternatural strength.
Later, Barbara encounters the same man, but does not show Diana's restraint, beating him to within an inch of his life without mercy. The film frames this as an example of power's corruptive force—but it veers uncomfortably close to long-standing arguments that imply women are too emotional to wield power responsibly and will only end up abusing it.
Diana personifies the other edge of the gendered Sword of Damocles always hanging over the heads of powerful women. Initially, her emotional attachment to Steve causes her to give up on finding other sources of joy in her life (she admits to Barbara that she does not date because of her sustained grief, nor does she seem to have any friends,).
Later, her romantic attachment to Steve almost causes her to abandon her heroic purpose to protect humanity. Somehow, WW84 puts Diana in the position of having to sacrifice her love (twice) while also nearly succumbing to it.
Finding motivation and suspense for omnipotent superheroes is one of the consistent challenges of these narratives. Every "Superman" must have their Kryptonite, after all, or where's the suspense? But let's ask ourselves what we're saying about an icon like Wonder Woman when her Kryptonite is a willingness to give up power for love—only to be forced to give up love to reclaim her power.
Ultimately, Cheetah and Maxwell Lord are red herrings. The real villain of the film is Diana's own psyche, her ability to sabotage herself as she did when she was a girl, through faults that are commonly feminized. There's enough evil out in the world for women to fight, without having to prove over and over again that we can win these outdated battles against others' gendered expectations.
Feminist Faves: Stream the Best Films Released in 2020
What "Happiest Season" Is, What It Isn't, and What It Could Be
The Queen's Gambit Does a Lot Well. Portraying Being a Woman in Chess Isn't One of Them.
Our opponents are using the lame duck period—the time between now and when the new president is inaugurated, and a new Congress convenes—to do as much damage as they can. Help ensure Ms. remains strong and independent during this period of challenge and change. If you found this article helpful, please consider supporting our independent reporting and truth-telling for as little as $5 per month.
Tagged: Film, Film and TV Reviews, Women in Film and TV, Wonder Woman
About Aviva Dove-Viebahn
Aviva Dove-Viebahn is an assistant professor of film and media studies at Arizona State University and a contributing editor for Ms.'s Scholar Writing Program.
'Why We Still Love Zora': Irma McClaurin on PBS Documentary 'Claiming a Space' and Zora Neale Hurston's Legacy
Janell Hobson
On the Power of Choice and Imagination: The Ms. Q&A with 'Women Talking' Producer Dede Gardner
Aviva Dove-Viebahn


text:
<?php

/**
 * Message data for `lv`.
 *
 * Plural rule and forms derived from the GNU gettext documentation.
 *
 * @link http://www.gnu.org/software/gettext/manual/gettext.html#Plural-forms
 */
return array(
	'pluralForms' => 3,
	'pluralRule' => function ($n) { return $n == 0 ? 0 : ($n % 10 == 1 && $n % 100 != 11 ? 1 : 2); }
);

?>

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Swarm of drones to give early warning of flash floods
A drone monitoring system that tracks flash floods in real time can buy time to escape before the waters hit
Earth 22 May 2013
By Hal Hodson
High and dry but safe
(Image: Reuters)
FLASH floods are quick and deadly. At least 13 people died when a surge hit parts of Saudi Arabia earlier this month. Two years earlier, 123 were killed when thunderstorms dumped rain over arid land to the east of the Red Sea port of Jeddah, hitting the city with no warning. A drone monitoring system that tracks floods in real time would sound the alarm before the water hits.
Existing forecasting models are good at predicting roughly when an area might experience the right mix of conditions to create a flash flood, but they can't say precisely when or where a flood will strike. Christian Claudel at the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology outside Jeddah is working on a drone system that could give such cities between 30 minutes and 2 hours of warning, as well as predicting the flood's path.
The goal is to launch a swarm of about 10 drones to automatically monitor a potential flash flood. The drones will drop disposable wireless sensors across the region at risk. If the sensors meet floodwater they will be carried away on the current, sending out a simple signal which the drones can track. The drones relay the sensors' changing positions back to a central database, which builds up a model of floodwater flow.
"The sensors are made of printed circuits on paper, which reduces the cost of the device," says Claudel. The printed sensors act as location tags, pinging a unique ID number to the drones over a short range. This is much cheaper than using dedicated sensors with their own communications systems, which may never be recovered. He will describe the system at the International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Atlanta, Georgia, at the end of May. Claudel has meetings set up for June with the city authorities in the Saudi capital Riyadh about starting a trial of the scheme.
Kristen Rasmussen, who studies flash flooding at the University of Washington in Seattle, says it would be really useful to combine the drone system with existing models that take account of terrain and how the water moves. "That could be very powerful," she says, adding that such floods are a problem all over the world, from Venezuela to the US Southwest. A flash flood in Colorado in 1976 killed 176 people. But she warns that the social aspect of prediction is equally important: getting the message out and persuading people to pay attention to it.
"Unless the information is used to get the word out to people, even the most advanced technology is not much use," she says.
"These are fast-moving, violent events that are hard to predict," says Burrell Montz of East Carolina University in Greenville, North Carolina. "This would be awesome if it works."
This article appeared in print under the headline "Danger! Flash flood on its way"
More on these topics:
Magazine issue 2918 , published 25 May 2013
Google Glass apps show off what headset can really do
Play your way to work with interactive games
A better understanding of PCOS offers fresh hope for new treatments
New insights into polycystic ovary syndrome are revealing more about the causes of this common but misunderstood whole-body condition, and these could lead to new treatments
We need a new model of space governance to address today's challenges
Access to space is growing, with more than 70 nations now operating space programmes. We urgently need to update international rules, says chair of the UAE Space Agency Sarah Al Amiri
The mysterious underwater avalanches reshaping Earth
Turbidity currents are cascades of sediment that tumble down Earth's 9000 submarine canyons carrying carbon, plastics and pharmaceuticals into the deep sea. We are finally learning just how often these dramatic events occur.


text:
Home/The Economist-Open Future/How society can overcome covid-19
How society can overcome covid-19
Countries can test, quarantine and prepare for the post-coronavirus world, says Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist
WHEN THE makers of the film "Contagion" in 2011 needed to vet the plausibility of the script, they turned to Larry Brilliant, one of the world's leading epidemiologists. His reply scared them even more than the screenplay: not only was the scenario possible, he explained, it was almost certain to happen. Today, the world is living a nightmare similar to the cinematic description.
Mr Brilliant's career stretches from living in an ashram in India and helping to eradicate smallpox with the World Health Organisation to co-founding the Seva Foundation to treat eye disease in poor countries. Around a decade ago he led Google's philanthropic efforts (including being a co-author of a landmark paper in 2009 that applied artificial intelligence to epidemiology).
He has been warning the world about the threat of pandemics for years; today his voice on how to respond is indispensable. The Economist's technology podcast, Babbage, interviewed Mr Brilliant on April 1st. Below is an edited transcript of the conversation, along with a link to the episode.
The Economist: For years you have warned about the possibility of a new global pandemic. Has covid-19 emerged in the way that you predicted?
Larry Brilliant: Sadly, yes. There's no credit for predicting this. In fact, probably 30 or 50 or all the infectious-disease epidemiologists in the world predicted this almost precisely.
The Economist: Had we done enough to prepare for it?
Mr Brilliant: A number of things have been done all over the world that have made it possible to have "speed bumps" in the path of this virus. We have a wonderful collection of digital disease-surveillance networks: "Flu near you"; "Covid near you"; the Canadian system. Various countries have phenomenal systems, Thailand, especially. Bi-directional systems.
So I think that you'll see that different countries will have better luck responding to the pandemic, because they've detected it sooner; responded quicker. And in those countries you will find they have better surveillance systems, many of them digital. Some, like in Cambodia, [have] an analogue system, a phone-in system where all Cambodians report their diseases faster than almost any other place in the world. That is a legacy of a group called Ending Pandemics, which is run by my colleague, Mark Smolinski.
[But] if you're saying "governments have failed in their response"—that, I would agree with you. And there are a series of reasons for that.
The Economist: Many countries are dealing with this, but do we understand the full scale of this pandemic yet?
Mr Brilliant: No. There are eight billion of us, plus or minus. This is a novel virus that came from animals, most likely from a bat or some intermediate animal. A novel virus, by its name, can infect every susceptible person in the world. That means all eight billion of us are susceptible to this virus under the "right"—or should I say, under the "wrong"—circumstances.
I would add, also, the rate of speed of this virus, in terms of its transmissibility or its R0 ("R-naught") and the interval or incubation period. The rate of speed is governed by those two things: that rate of transmissibility (the short or longness of the incubation period), and the generational interval. But it is mostly dictated by the "density of susceptibles". If, in fact, you have a virus that should be transmitting 12 new cases for each one, like measles, but if 100% of the people are vaccinated, well, that R0 value goes down to zero.
The Economist: How does covid-19 compare to other diseases you've fought, like smallpox or polio?
Mr Brilliant: Well, smallpox has an R0 of three-and-a-half to four-and-a-half, which means that for every one case of smallpox in the wild, there will be three-and-a-half or four-and-a-half new people who get it. The average flu's R0 value is about 1.2 or 1.3 or 1.1. The great influenza in 1918 probably had an R0 of a little over 2 or a little under 2. This virus so far we believe to have an R0, or a transmissible value, of between 2.2 and 2.4. So it's a lot faster, a lot worse than ordinary flu. A little less than smallpox, a lot less than measles.
The Economist: What do you think needs to be done to reduce the transmission of covid-19?
Mr Brilliant: Oh, that's a perfect question. That is the key question. You must reduce the density of susceptibles. Again, if 100% of the people were vaccinated, the R0, the transmissibility, would go down to zero. It doesn't matter its potential transmissibility. If everybody around a virus was quarantined, and the person who had the virus was quarantined, and there could be no contact between them, the transmissibility would go down to zero.
That is the entire reason behind quarantine. And it is the derivative reason behind social distancing. As we are good at social distancing, the transmissibility goes down. If we create a laissez-faire transmissibility, or a Swiss cheese-like transmissibility with holes in it—with people going to beach parties, while everybody else is at home with a mask and gloves and huddled in the backroom—those holes will lead to increasing transmissibility.
The Economist: Do you believe governments are taking the outbreak seriously enough?
Mr Brilliant: So today is April Fools' Day. I hate to make a comparison between the date and the answer to your question. I would say that governments have been incredibly slow in responding, almost without exception. I think that your government in the UK […] began on a misguided mission to allow or think that they could allow everybody or a large number of people to become infected, in an effort to reach the epidemiologist's Holy Grail of "herd immunity".
I think my government [in America] fumbled, almost unforgivably, in the way they mangled the distribution of test kits; in the way that our leadership pretended that the outbreak could be brought down from five to zero and it would not be a problem after a while. And it continued to underplay how important it was, as "a hoax," until finally confronted with the stark reality.
I think Germany has responded quickly. I think South Korea, after fumbling a little bit in the early days, came down extremely well. And despite a little reversal a few days ago, it has really shown itself a model for what other countries can do.
And of course China, which I think delayed—or maybe because of a regional government—delayed for almost a month. But once they understood what it was, they came down with what is called "draconian" methods. People say the West can follow them: we don't need to be draconian, but we can follow the methods.
The Economist: Do you believe a vaccine will be found and if so, how quickly? And what are the alternative options in the meantime?
Mr Brilliant: I see no reason to not believe that a vaccine will be found. While we weren't successful In making the vaccine after the first SARS or MERS outbreaks, that was just because the epidemic was over so quickly that we didn't keep a sustained effort. There is nothing biologically that I see in the virus that troubles me. We already do have putative or potential vaccines.
I think we will have a vaccine that works in less than a couple of months. Then it will be the arduous process of making sure that it is effective enough and that it is not harmful. And then we have to produce it. [The director of America's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] Tony Fauci's estimate of 12 to 18 months before we have a vaccine, in sufficient quantities in place, is one that I agree with.
I just want to mention, once we have that vaccine, and we've mass vaccinated as many people as we could, there will still be outbreaks. People are not adding on to the backend of that time period the fact that we will then be chasing outbreaks, ping-pong-ing back and forth between countries. We will need to have the equivalent of the polio-eradication programme or the smallpox-eradication programme, hopefully at the WHO. And that mop-up—I hate to use that word when we're talking about human beings—but that follow-on effort will take an additional period of time before we are truly safe.
The Economist: What are the alternative options in the meantime?
Mr Brilliant: Well, there are a couple. One in the medium-term is an antiviral to treat people and make them well quicker so they shed virus sooner. I think we're doing really well with antivirals. WHO has embarked on a multi-country, multi-agent trial of five possible therapies, and I believe they've enrolled 20,000 people so far. Once that is concluded we'll know whether any of those five work. If they don't, we'll continue doing more and more trials. In fact, every country is doing trials of favourite candidates and I'm confident we will find an antiviral.
Now comes the question: will we be able to find an antiviral like Tamiflu, that has vaccine-like attributes? In other words, when you use Tamiflu, you use it to treat yourself. But your wonderful Neil Ferguson, [an epidemiologist at Imperial College London], showed in 2005 in an article in Nature that you could actually saturate an entire city's population with Tamiflu if that city had bird flu. And you could use it because it did have possibilities that it could be used like a vaccine. Now, we've never done this on a large scale. But that is another possibility.
Absent that and absent a vaccine, the only possibility that we have in our tool-kit is personal hygiene—washing your hands 20 seconds, singing "Hail to the Queen" twice—and then wearing masks, gloves, making sure you're taking yourself out of the density-of-susceptibles category, and then adding on social distancing and maintaining that for several incubation periods.
The Economist: In your time, you have seen pandemics subside. What does a return to normality look like? Life after covid-19?
Mr Brilliant: It's going to be hard. You know, first, during the peak of this pandemic, we will see things that my generation, your generation, has never seen before. When I was in India—and I lived in India for 10 years; I love India—working on the smallpox eradication programme, in the year that we began the programme, there were 250,000 children who were stricken with disease. At least a third would die, perhaps more. And the crematoriums were unable to handle the load. So you would find bodies wrapped in paper cloth that would be stacked like cords of wood.
We are not able to look at a scene like that, like Dante's Inferno or Hieronymus Bosch's paintings. We're not able to look at that without feeling something that we don't feel for almost anything else in the world. We'll look at that; we'll look at the way that we see wonderful, good people—shopkeepers and workers—who are made homeless. We will go back to a time and a state that we're not ready for emotionally.
And when my colleagues and I have talked over the last 30 years, or we've done in the movie "Contagion," we've tried to show that it isn't just the biology of the virus that causes such great social disruption. It's the knock-on effects to human beings' lives; their financial well-being, the familial bonds that are tested, are made strong. The way that the best of people or the worst of them come out during an epidemic like this. We will see ordinary people become saints; we will see ordinary people become criminals. We're not prepared for it.
And so the end of that, first, will be disbelief; bewilderment. And the return to normality will be slow.
I add also, of course, throughout history pandemics, like rivers, recreate the boundaries of countries. And with the rising tide of nationalism that we've seen in the past few years, you give a tyrant or a dictator the power that is needed to conquer a pandemic, the question remains: What will they do with that power once it is not needed for the pandemic? Will they surrender it voluntarily and go back to democracies—or not?
By economia|2020-09-17T16:14:26+03:00September 14th, 2020|The Economist-Open Future|
Telemedicine is essential amid the covid-19 crisis and after it
Society doesn't think ahead but we can trick ourselves into doing better
To neutralise populism, give people more control
A cry for freedom in the algorithmic age


text:
Sebastiania riedelii is a species of flowering plant in the family Euphorbiaceae. It was described in 1874. It is native to Minas Gerais, Brazil.

References

Plants described in 1874
Flora of Brazil
riedelii
Taxa named by Johannes Müller Argoviensis


text:
Home. > VDRC > SPECIAL REPORT: 10 Stories About Election 2006 > 2. Monopoly Politics
Monopoly Politics 2006
How by Thursday We Will Project Election '08 Winners in 340+ Races
On the morning of November 9, 2006 – two days after the mid-term congressional elections – FairVote will issue its projections for winners and electoral margins in the great majority of U.S. House races to be held fully two years later, in November 2008. Even though our projection model represents cautious estimates that reflect how poorly an incumbent might do if he or she has a difficult year (meaning most incumbents will win by greater margins than our cautious projections for them), we expect to be able to project winners in more than 340 U.S. House seats and project landslide wins of at least 20% in nearly half of all seats. Even in fiercely competitive years in which control of the House is in doubt, more than 80% of incumbents can essentially run on cruise control.
We will use the same methodology that has had an accuracy rate of 99.8% in projecting winners in more than 1,600 races from 1996-2004. Based on the history of our success, the candidates we project to win are almost certain to win if they choose to run in 2008, with the only wildcards being their potential involvement in a high-profile personal scandal or a strong swing in the two-party national vote toward the opposition party (note that our spreadsheet allows one to easily adjust the two-party vote to find out what shift would be required to put them into a no-projection category).
Here's our history of making such bold projections. In July 1997, FairVote first released Monopoly Politics, the first in a series of bi-annual reports that project the outcome of most U.S. House races based on a simple, but powerful observation: the partisan division in most districts usually determines the winner of elections, particularly when combined with a history of strong incumbent performance. In the great majority of U.S. House races, we can project not only who will win but by what margin without knowing a single thing about:
• the identity of their next challenger;
• the incumbent's voting record or other behavior during their tenure;
• campaign spending in past or current elections;
• district-specific polling data and organizational endorsements.
All we need to know are the results from recent federal elections in the district and the incumbent's party and seniority. Each Monopoly Politics report provides state-by-state, district-by-district guides to races. The history of elections in each district is included, and winners and victory margins are predicted in the great majority of House races. Our methodology was adapted by analyst Charlie Cook for his well-known "partisan voting index" (PVI) measurement of districts.
Because we lack the presidential election data by district immediately after congressional elections held at the same time as presidential elections, our projections for mid-term congressional elections are delayed until that data is available. But after mid-term elections, the only new data we need to make projections is the incumbent's performance in that mid-term election. Heading into 2008, therefore, the only changes we will make after November 9, 2006 are: (1) final official election results by district, which occasionally can affect a projection; (2) whether the seat becomes open, which then triggers projections based on the district partisanship without regard to past congressional candidate performance in the district; (3) whether the district lines are changed, as took place in Texas in 2003 and Georgia in 2005; and (4) and the projected two-party national division in the next election, which automatically changes projections in all races.
Our predictions of winners in House elections have been remarkably accurate since we launched the model. Although there likely were slight deviations from a 50-50 partisan division in some of those elections – a slight advantage for Democrats in 1998, for example, and a somewhat bigger advantage for Republicans in 2002 – we have evaluated our projections based on a 50-50 vote. During that period, we have projected winners in 1,613 races. Of these projected winners, 1610 (99.8%) indeed did win the seat. Although two of the three errors were in 2004 (Republican Phil Crane's defeat in Illinois and Democrat John Salazar's open seat win in Colorado), our projections for landslide winners were remarkably accurate that year: of the 211 races we projected would be won by landslide margins of 20%, all but two were in fact won by that margin. Indeed the most striking trend in our analysis has been the increase in seats projected to be won and won easily – a trend that has closely tracked a general decline in competitiveness in elections.
See the following chart for more details. Note that for 2006 we have three different listings, based on three different potential two-party results: ones where Democrats win 50%, 53% and 56% of the two-party vote, respectively.
* 1996-2000 projections made retroactively after converting to a new spreadsheet-driven model in 2002
** One of our projected winners lost in 1996. Two lost in 2004. All the others won their elections.