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Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Round of 32 for Saturday, March 23, 2019
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Auburn, Florida, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, Murray St., Villanova, Wofford — piratings @ 11:02 am
TS Marg
OReb%
DReb%
DTOV%
R+T
Maryland's strength of schedule advantage is negligible. LSU's R+T advantage is also negligible. Rebounding should be close to even, and it doesn't appear like turnovers will decide this game.
It comes down to true shooting % margin, and Maryland's is better by enough to move the needle into Terp territory.
Predicted Winner: Maryland but a close game
Wofford looked great in the closing minutes of their blowout win over Seton Hall, just like they did when they closed out the SoCon Championship Game against UNC-Greensboro. This will not repeat itself Saturday. Kentucky might give the Terriers a dose of their own medicine, but it will more than likely come in the first half. The Wildcats are too much out of Wofford's class, and the SOS difference makes UK's analytics much superior to Wofford's.
Even with P. J. Washington still unavailable until next week at the earliest, Kentucky has too much muscle and quickness for the Terriers. Wofford's excellent inside-outside combination won't be able to connect enough times.
Predicted Winner: Kentucky by double digits
Florida became one of the few teams with a negative R+T rating to advance to the Round of 32, and their R+T is still negative. Michigan's R+T is definitely a liability also, but at least it is positive. The Wolverines has a far superior true shooting % margin, most of which is due to their top-rate defense, led by "defensive coordinator" Luke Yaklich.
Predicted Winner: Michigan by 5 to 12 points
Florida St.
Murray St.
The popular pick is Ja Morant and the Racers, but the ACC was really tough at the top, and this data shows the Seminoles' SOS looks insurmountable in this game. The 'Noles have a lot more muscle than Marquette, and they will be able to wear down Murray and control the boards while forcing the Racers into more second half mistakes.
Predicted Winner: Florida St. by 7 to 15
Baylor's SOS is a little better than Gonzaga, and the Bears should be able to get a couple extras offensive rebounds, but Gonzaga is too much better everywhere else. A lot of people are picking the Bears to be the first team to send a #1-seed home, but in my opinion, Gonzaga has the best path to the Final Four of any #1-seed.
Predicted Winner: Gonzaga by double digits
Never before have conference rivals met in the Round of 32, and this does alter our data a little bit, but not much. In their previous meeting, Michigan State thoroughly destroyed Minnesota in a game in East Lansing. The analytical data in that game was not that much off the norm, as Michigan State was expected to dominate the offensive glass and get better percentage shots.
The data has not changed much from that home game for Sparty. It will be closer this time, but the outcome should still be the same. MSU has huge R+T and True Shooting % Margin advantages here. Minny might not be able to beat the Spartans more than one time in 10 games on a neutral floor.
Predicted Winner: Michigan St. by 10-15 points
The defending national champions may not make it to the Sweet 16. Purdue isn't that much slower than the Wildcats and much stronger. The Boilermakers' will eventually lose to a team with a superior TS Margin and enough muscle to make the board battle even, but I don't think the Wildcats have the juice this year to be that team.
Predicted Winner: Purdue by 4 to 9 points
This will be an interesting game, and it should be a nail-biter unless one team just doesn't have it and lays an egg. I believe that if these teams play 10 times, it would be 5 to 5 in wins. Kansas has the better TS% Margin, but not by that much. The difference in this game is that Auburn can force turnovers, and Kansas is turnover-prone. That's where I give the Tigers an ever so slight advantage overall.
Predicted Winner: Auburn by 6 or less
PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, March 11, 2019
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: conference tournaments, Duke, Gonzaga, Hofstra, Iona, Kentucky, Michigan, Saint Mary's, UNC Greensboro, Wofford — piratings @ 9:43 am
Today's PiRate Ratings Spreads
Savannah State
Hofstra
Wright State
Purdue Fort Wayne
PiRate Ratings (1-353)
Mtn West
Mississippi St.
Kansas St.
North Carolina St.
Virginia Commonwealth
Atl 10
Penn St.
Utah St.
Ohio Val
Lipscomb
Arizona St.
New Mexico St.
Miami (Fla)
Fresno St.
East Tennessee St.
Oregon St.
Amer East
South Dakota St.
Oklahoma St.
Wichita St.
Utah Valley
San Diego St.
Loyola (Chi)
Missouri Val
CUSA
Georgia St.
Texas St.
Jacksonville St.
St. Bonaventure
Wright St.
Ball St.
Boise St.
Loyola Marymount
Washington St.
Miami (O)
Gardner Webb
UT Arlington
Missouri St.
Saint Joseph's
Sam Houston St.
Cal St. Fullerton
Metro Atl
Illinois St.
Appalachian St.
North Dakota St.
UT Rio Grande Valley
California Baptist
Florida Int'l.
Illinois Chicago
Indiana St.
Fairleigh Dickinson
Maryland Baltimore Co.
Long Beach St.
Cal St. Bakersfield
Florida Gulf Coast
St. Francis PA
Montana St.
Norfolk St.
Missouri Kansas City
Morehead St.
Portland St.
Canisius
UNC Wilmington
Arkansas St.
Sacramento St.
Loyola (MD)
St. Francis (BKN)
Grambling St.
Texas A&M-CC
Cal St. Northridge
Youngstown St.
Houston Baptist
North Carolina Central
Cleveland St.
Oral Roberts
Bethune Cookman
Tennessee St.
Nicholls St.
Southeast Missouri St.
Idaho St.
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Jackson St.
Mount St. Mary's
McNeese St.
Alabama St.
SIU Edwardsville
Morgan St.
South Carolina St.
Northwestern St.
Kennesaw St.
San Jose St.
Savannah St.
Coppin St.
Incarnate Word
UNC Asheville
Alcorn St.
Mississippi Valley St.
Maryland Eastern Shore
Chicago St.
PiRate Ratings (Alphabetical)
PiRate Ratings (Conference)
America East
Atlantic Sun
Colonial Athletic
Metro Atlantic
Mideastern Athletic
Ohio Valley
Southwestern Athletic
Western Athletic
Conference Tournaments Update
*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Radford) ***
Colonial Athletic Association
Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC
Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Hofstra (26-6)
Delaware (17-15)
Northeastern (21-10)
Charleston (24-8)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)
Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Championship Game–Monday, March 11
Iona (16-15)
Monmouth (14-20)
Mid-American Conference (MACtion)
Site: 1st Rd @ Higher Seeds/ Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
First Round–Monday, March 11
Akron (16-15)
Miami (O) (15-16)
Central Michigan (21-10)
Western Michigan (8-23)
Northern Illinois (15-16)
Ohio (14-16)
Eastern Michigan (15-16)
Ball St. (15-16)
Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)
Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
All games at home floor of higher seeds
*** Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13 ***
Colgate (23-10)
Bucknell (21-10)
Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
*** Championship Game–Monday, March 11 ***
Wofford (28-4)
UNC Greensboro (28-5)
Summit League
Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Purdue Ft. Wayne
Western Illinois (10-20)
North Dakota St. (16-15)
Omaha (20-10)
Purdue Ft. Wayne (18-14)
West Coast Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Saint Mary's (20-11)
San Diego (21-13)
Gonzaga (29-2)
Pepperdine (16-17)
Teams With Automatic Bids
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PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, February 25, 2019
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee, Washington, Wofford — piratings @ 8:34 am
Mid-Amer
Atl Sun
OH Valley
Mo Valley
Sthland
St. Francis (PA)
St. Francis (Bklyn)
Texas A&M CC
PiRate Ratings (By Conference)
Conference Ratings
PiRate Avg.
Coming Monday Afternoon: Updated Bracketology
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The PiRate Ratings Look At The One Bid Leagues
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Buffalo, Ja Morant, Liberty, Lipscomb, Mid-Major, Murray State, New Mexico State, Rod Barnes, South Dakota St., Wofford — piratings @ 11:19 am
Mid-Major teams have been pulling off big time upsets for many years longer than the 68-team field era. Back in the days when just 32 teams made the NCAA Tournament, Cal State Fullerton snuck into the Elite 8 and came within a couple possessions of advancing to the Final Four in 1978. Before that, Texas Western had to be considered a Mid-Major team in their run to the National Championship in 1966, even though the Miners were no surprise team that year as they entered the NCAA Tournament as the number two-ranked team in the polls.
In the recent era, all the fun with Mid-Majors began with George Mason in 2006. That GMU team was a controversial at-large pick after they lost in the Colonial Athletic Tournament. Since then, Virginia Commonwealth, Wichita State, and most recently Loyola of Chicago have made it to the Final Four. Of course, Butler made it to within a couple inches of a National Championship on its way to back-to-back Championship Game appearances.
Is there a Mid-Major in 2019 that could do the unthinkable and go all the way? If you consider Nevada or Buffalo a Mid-Major, then it could happen. If you consider Nevada and Buffalo like Gonzaga, then probably not, but there are many teams that could win an opening round game and a couple that could sneak into the Sweet 16. Here's a breakdown of the potential one-bid leagues.
America East Conference
Four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, but for now this is a three-team race between Vermont (6-1/16-5) and Stony Brook (5-1/17-4) , the two teams that have dominated this league in the past and and Maryland-Baltimore County (5-2/13-9), the team that won the conference tournament last year before becoming the first ever 16-seed to beat a 1-seed.
Last week, UMBC beat Vermont, and then Vermont blew Stony Brook off their own floor, giving every team a loss in league play. Wednesday night UMBC host Stony Brook, so this race will see movement in the upper half of the standings.
Fourth place U Mass-Lowell (4-2/12-9) has a four-game winning streak, which includes a win over UMBC. The River Hawks host Vermont this Saturday, so this race could be a tight four-way competition by the weekend.
Atlantic 10 Conference
The A-10 moves into Mid-Major territory this year, because this looks like a one-bid league. In a 14-team league with some weak teams bringing up the pack, it is obvious that there must also be either a few really strong teams or several competitive teams, and in this case, the league has eight competing for the conference championship and six that are legitimate threats as potential first round NCAA Tournament underdogs. Former Final Four surprise team George Mason (7-1/13-8) looks better than their overall record. The Patriots lost by one point at Kansas State, and they competed with Cincinnati, Baylor, and Vermont. Coach Dave Paulsen did a great job at Bucknell, and he has slowly brought GMU back to the top of the standings in the league.
Davidson (6-1/15-5) has turned up the defensive intensity in league play, and the Wildcats are limiting league foes to 39% shooting, 26% three-point shooting, and 59 points per game. Coach Bob McKillop is in his 30th season at DC, and he has the talent to take his 10th team to the Big Dance.
If you are looking for a team on the rise, look no further than Duquesne (5-2/14-6), where Coach Keith Dambrot has quickly turned the fortunes around in this once strong program. Dambrot owned the MAC at Akron with eight league titles in 11 years, and he is working his magic with the Dukes, making them the equal of big brother Pitt in the Steel City.
Saint Lous (5-2/14-6) lost a heart-breaker by a point against Davidson this past Saturday, and the Billikens could be a half-game out of first place had the breaks gone their way at the end. Former Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford has revived this program that suffered three consecutive 21-loss seasons.
Virginia Commonwealth (5-2/14-6) didn't skip a beat when Will Wade left for LSU, and Mike Rhoades took over the program and brought back the Havoc Defense. VCU is killing it on the defensive end of the floor, limiting opponents to 38% shooting and forcing a lot of turnovers. The offense began to look competent in the Rams' big win at Duquesne last time out. Keep an eye on VCU. If their offense continued to improve, they might be the team to beat in this league, and they have the defense to upset an opponent in the NCAA Tournament.
A Former VCU coach, Anthony Grant has resurrected his coaching career at Dayton (5-2/13-7), where the Flyers have won eight of 10 games riding the backs of their two big men, Josh Cunningham and Obadiah Toppin. The two forwards are instant offense in the paint, but they have excellent range and can drain the three if left open.
This may be the best two-team race in all of college basketball, and you should make a note to tune into ESPN+ tonight and catch the big game between the two league powers vying for the top spot in the league. There might be consideration to take both teams in the NCAA Tournament if they continue to dominate this league.
Liberty (7-0/18-4) hosts Lipscomb (7-0/16-4) at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, and the winner will find itself in the top 35 in the NET Ratings if they also win Saturday. This game will feature the high-flying offense of Lipscomb against the tough defense of Liberty.
In their eight-game winning streak that started with the big upset of UCLA, the Flames have limited opponents to 55 points per game while scoring 71 points per game. Liberty is undefeated at home, and they have an experienced coach in Ritchie McKay, who took New Mexico to the NCAA Tournament in the previous decade.
Lipscomb is the reigning conference tournament champions, under Coach Casey Alexander. The Bisons program was once the Duke of NAIA, and Alexander continues to win with a roster full of local players in the talent-rich Nashville area. Lipscomb scores 85 points per game by following the basic rules of the new advanced metrics–their offense is designed to get a lot of open three-point shots and to draw a lot of fouls with quick and straight moves to the basket.
NJIT (5-2/17-5) is the one team that could sneak past the two top teams in the conference tournament, but still must play Liberty twice, as well as play at Lipscomb, so the Highlanders might be fighting just to earn the number three seed in the A-Sun Tournament.
An exciting three-team race has developed in this league, which is down a bit this year and probably will not field a team capable of challenging for an opening round win in the Big Dance. Northern Colorado (8-2/14-7) has a half-game lead over Montana (7-2/14-6) and Weber St. (7-2/13-7).
Northern Colorado has the top player in the league in Jordan Davis, who averages 24 points per game and has scored in double figures in every game this year. The problem with the Bears is that sometimes the rest of the team relies too much on Davis to do everything, and it leads to offensive lapses.
Montana has won eight of 10 games with balanced scoring and by taking care of the ball. The Grizzlies have four players averaging between 13 and 16 points per game. The Grizzlies went on a big winning streak in January and February last year to sweep the regular season and tournament championships.
Weber State may be the best equipped to play tough against a power conference team in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have the second best scorer in the Big Sky in Jerrick Harding, who scores better than 21 points per game. Inside, they have the league's two best rebounders. Brekkot Chapman clears the glass on the defensive end, and Zach Braxton gets a lot of offensive boards and second chance points.
Radford (7-0/15-6) is the clear best team in this league, and the Highlanders own a top 25 win this year having won at Texas after Thanksgiving. All five starters returned from last year's conference tournament champion team that unfortunately had to play Villanova in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Coach Mike Jones has one of the most unique backgrounds with a wide range of coaching styles in his days as an assistant. He has been on staffs coached by Shaka Smart, John Beilein, and he was on Dennis Felton's staff at Georgia, when the Bulldogs pulled off one of the most incredible feats in modern basketball history. In 2008, he helped guide Georgia to the SEC Tournament Championship after the tournament was forced to move from the Georgia Dome to Georgia Tech's Alexander Coliseum following the direct hit from a tornado that rendered the Georgia Dome too dangerous to continue. Georgia was forced to play two games in one day and win four games in three days in order to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, and the Bulldogs did it.
In addition Jones is the son of a former ABA basketball star Jimmie Jones, who I saw play for the Memphis Pros in the early 1970's.
This league will probably only garner a 15-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but there is some really good basketball being played in the Big West, and more than one head coach might be in line for a pay raise and move to a power conference.
UC-Irvine (5-1/17-5) and UC Santa Barbara (4-1/15-4) are the heavy co-favorites, but there is enough parity in the Big West for somebody else to earn the league's automatic bid.
Former Alabama and North Carolina State coach Mark Gottfried has resurfaced at Cal State Northridge (3-2/9-12), and the Matadors play at a frenetic pace that might cause another earthquake one night. CSUN has two big scorers averaging better than 20 points per game in Lamine Diane (23.5ppg) and Terrell Gomez (20.1 ppg). Diane averages a double-double, and CSUN has a roster to watch out for in a three-day tournament.
Hawaii (3-2/12-7) is always handicapped by having to play difficult road trips. For those that do not pay attention to geography, the Rainbow Warriors basically have to fly the equivalent of New York City to Phoenix, Arizona, every time they go from the island to LAX, and then they must travel by bus to places like Irvine, Fullerton, and Santa Barbara.
What team has the nation's longest winning streak? If you said the current number one Tennessee Volunteers, you are wrong by two games. The Vols have won 14 in a row, but Hofstra (9-0/19-3) has won 16 games in a row. The Pride have fielded some great teams in the past under former coaches Jay Wright (that Jay Wright) and Butch Van Breda Kolff. Current Coach Joe Mihalich comes from the Paul Westhead coaching tree, but Hofstra does not play anything like the legendary offensive mastermind.
Mihalich's team is one of the most efficient on the offensive side of the ball, as the Pride average about 120 points for every 100 possessions in CAA play. They connect on almost 51% of their field goal attempts, 42% of their three-point attempts, and better than 80% of their free throw attempts in conference play. The name of the game is to put the ball through the hoop, and the Pride certainly accomplishes that most nights. Add the best turnover ratio with a high percentage of forced turnovers coming by the all important steal, and you have a team with the ability to sneak into the Sweet 16 with the right matchup.
This has been a league where outstanding coaches have made major impacts before going to bigger and better Power Conference programs. Kermit Davis, Jr. has taken his genius to Ole Miss. Michael White is now at Florida. Jerod Haase is at Stanford.
The current hot coach is Grant McCasland, who has guided North Texas to a 6-2/18-3 mark so far this year. McCasland has a history of producing powerful teams at lower classifications including a national junior college championship. The Mean Green lead the league, but they have a brutal finish to their schedule. Aside from the fact that they must play four of their next six games on the road in some difficult places to win, this league is experimenting with a new scheduling method, where the final two weeks of games will be scheduled based on conference standings. So, North Texas will likely have to play the best three teams in the league to finish the regular season, while a team like Western Kentucky (4-4/11-10) will get to play middle of the pack teams and arrive at the CUSA Tournament without having to play the same schedule.
WKU has the talent (highest two rated players, including 5-star center Charles Bassey) to win the league's automatic bid, but that talent has not gelled. Teams can gain confidence entering conference tournament play by mopping up against mediocre competition, so I expect the eventual conference champion to come from off the pace due to the new scheduling experiment.
Other middle of the pack teams that should compete for the lone bid are Marshall (5-3/12-9), Lousiana Tech (5-4/15-7), and Florida International (4-4/13-8)
Northern Kentucky (8-1/18-4) has the talent and coaching to pull off a first round NCAA Tournament shocker. The Norse have not been a Division 1 program for very long, after being a division two power for years. Coach John Brannen has his team prepared to play hard night after night, and he could be in line for promotion to a big program with a good showing in March. In these times, seldom do you see a team that can pass the ball as well as great teams from the past like North Carolina under Dean Smith and Indiana under Bob Knight. NKU is one of the few remaining teams that know how to move the ball rather than dribble for 15 seconds of fake offense. If the Norse can get a little more rebounding power, they have the tools to be a dangerous 14-seed against a 3-seed that overlooks them.
As per usual, this league brings up the rear in playing its conference schedule. Here we are at the end of January, and the eight Ivy teams have played two conference games each. It is too early to get a grip on this race, because last place Penn (0-2/12-6) has played rival Princeton (2-0/10-5) in both conference games, losing two close games. At the same time, the Quakers own the Big Five this year with wins over Villanova, La Salle, St. Joe's, and Temple. They also own a blowout win over Miami of Florida.
Princeton won at Arizona State, but they also lost at Duke by 51 points. With four consecutive conference road games coming up, expect the Tigers to be no better than 4-2 in a couple weeks.
Yale (2-0/12-3) swept travel partner Brown (0-2/12-6) in two close games. The Bulldogs have the most balanced scoring in the East with five players scoring double figures per game and two more averaging better than eight per game. Yale's big liability is there inability to hold onto the ball. The Bulldogs turn the ball over too many times, and that will keep them from advancing if they win the Ivy League Tournament.
The MAAC has been mired near the bottom of the conferences for many years, and this league will most likely produce a 16-seed in this year's tournament with a decent chance that said qualifier will be forced to play a First Four game in Dayton. The problem with the MAAC is that the regular season champion has not won the conference tournament since 2010!
That is not good news for the league's only decent team. Rider (6-1/11-8) won the regular season championship last year with a similar strong offensive efficiency, but the Broncos laid an egg agaist 9th seed Saint Peter's in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament with a 30% shooting effort.
In recent years, the 4-seed has won more conference tournament titles with around 11 or 12 conference wins. This year, that could be Siena (4-3/9-11), Iona (5-3/7-12), or Canisius (5-2/8-11). If any of these three win the bid, it's Dayton here they come.
Mid-American Conference
The MAC has a chance to move to a two-bid conference two different ways. Buffalo (6-1/18-2) is going to the Dance unless the Bulls totally collapse, so if another team wins the always competitive conference tournament, there definitely will be two MAC teams in the Field of 68. If Buffalo wins both the regular season and conference tournament, there is a chance that Toledo (4-3/16-4) or Bowling Green (6-1/14-6) could sneak in as an at-large team if there are no upsets in the Power Conference tournaments.
Northern Illinois (4-3/11-9) was the team that knocked off Buffalo, which is a reason why the MAC Tournament every year is exciting with a lot of plot twists. The regular season division champions always have a rough going in Cleveland.
Mideastern Athletic Conference
The MEAC owns three of the five 15-seed NCAA Tournament victories over 2-seeds, but the champion in recent years has not only been placed on the 16-seed line, they have had to play a First Four game in Dayton.
This year, Norfolk State (7-0/12-10) (Beat 2-seed Missouri in 2012 Dance) and North Carolina A&T (6-0/11-9) lead the pack and figure to contend for that spot in Dayton. The two co-leaders use different methods to win, and if they should meet in the MEAC Championship Game, it will be one not to miss. Norfolk State has the inside punch and rebounding ability, but the Spartans sometimes have a difficult time taking care of the ball. NC A&T has some liabilities in the paint, but the Aggies can guard the perimeter and know how to take care of the ball.
Missouri Valley Conference
Arch Madness is always fun in Saint Louis every year, and this year should be one of the better in recent years. Loyola of Chicago (6-2/13-8) became the nation's darling last year in their run to the Final Four, and the Ramblers lead the way again this season, but this team is not clicking like last year's team. Drake (5-3/16-5) also has a Final Four team in its past, which by the way came the closest to beating a Kareem Abdul Jabbar-led UCLA team.
This Valley has balance, and the next four teams after the two above have enough talent to get hot for three days and steal the lone bid. Keep an eye on Missouri State (4-4/10-11). Coach Dana Ford was a Gregg Marshall assistant at Wichita State, when the Shockers owned the Valley, and in the last week, the Bears looked just like one of those Wichita teams in blowout victories over Loyola and Bradley. MSU outscored the two victims 125-72. They out-shot Loyola 63%-37%, and they held the Ramblers to an incredible eight rebounds for the game!
Northeast Conference
Short of some other low major conferences sending 20-loss teams to the Big Dance, the champion of the NEC is doomed to play a First Four game in Dayton. There isn't a particularly strong team in the league this year.
Robert Morris (7-1/12-9) is one team that has won a game in Dayton before losing big as a 16-seed in the next game. St. Francis of Brooklyn (5-3/13-8) has never been in the NCAA Tournament. There isn't another league team with the talent to win a game in Dayton this year.
Like its first cousin, the Atlantic Sun Conference, the OVC has multiple teams capable of winning in the NCAA Tournament. There are actually four talented teams this year, as well as a potential top three draft pick in the 2019 NBA Draft.
Murray State (7-1/16-3) has been sort of like the Kentucky of the OVC. The Racers have won the conference championship under nine different head coaches, one of them being current head man Matt McMahon. Led by superstar Ja Morant, the Racers have competed on the road against good SEC teams. Morant might be the best and toughest point guard in the nation. He averages 24 points and 10.5 assists per game, and he does it without taking ill-advised shots. He does tend to make some bad decisions passing the ball, but he is tough as nails. Against top rival Belmont (6-2/15-4), he played 37 minutes, 35 of them with a sprained ankle.
Speaking of Belmont, the Bruins hit a rough spot for a week, but they have rebounded to win by double digits at Murray. Coach Rick Byrd's teams always pass and shoot brilliantly, but in recent years, he has been able to bring in and train big guys to compete against the power conference teams inside the paint.
Jacksonville State (7-1/15-6) owns both of the wins over Belmont, and former Western Kentucky coach Ray Harper has taken three teams to the NCAA Tournament in his previous seven years as a Division 1 coach. The Gamecocks know how to play tough man-to-man defense, and teams like JSU tend to play their best in conference tournament play.
Don't overlook Austin Peay (6-2/14-7). The Governors can fill it up from outside, and a hot streak in March could send this team to its first NCAA Tournament berth in four years. Coach Matt Figgers comes from the Frank Martin coaching tree, and Martin's teams always peak at the right time. If this APSU team peaks in March, they are just talented enough to win the conference tournament.
It's a down year in the Patriot League this season, but there could be something exciting that comes from the lack of having that one rather good team. Army (6-2/11-10) is tied for first with Lehigh (6-2/13-6) and perennial champion Bucknell (6-2/12-8). The Black Knights have never appeared in the NCAA Tournament, even when Bob Knight or Mike Krzyzewski coached the Academy. In 29 years in the Patriot League, Army has finished with a winning conference record just one time, so if Coach Jimmy Allen can guide his roster of 20 players (yes, you read that correctly) to the Big Dance this year, it will be quite a milestone. Army's two conference losses were by one and two points, and in their current four-game winning streak, they have outscore their conference rivals by 11.5 points per game.
The Socon has four teams this year strong enough to do damage in the NCAA Tournament, possibly even contend for a Sweet 16 berth. The league will most likely get just one bid, but there could be a second team that sneaks into the Dance. The problem is that with four really good teams, the second best team is going to lose too many games, or all four teams will see their won-loss records affected by the parity.
Wofford (9-0/17-4) has been to four NCAA Tournaments during Coach Mike Young's tenure, with the Terriers coming close twice against power conference teams. This is Young's best team in Spartanburg, and the Terriers haven't lost since Christmas. In their eight-game winning streak, Wofford has a scoring margin of 84-66. Three of their four losses were to top 25 teams.
UNC-Greensboro (8-1/19-3) and East Tennessee State (7-2/17-5) might be better NCAA Tournament representatives than Wofford due to unique playing styles and the makeup of their rosters. UNCG's one conference loss was a devastating one, as Wofford beat them by 29 points. On the other hand, the Spartans played SEC powers Kentucky and LSU rather closely before losing.
ETSU has won nine of their last 10 games, and the Buccaneers still have a home game with Wofford. Coach Steve Forbes took the 2016 Bucs to the NCAA Tournament after losing to UNCG and Wofford in the regular season, so don't discount the chance that the Bucs can repeat the feat in 2019.
As good as these three teams are, one other team actually has a top 25 win this year. Furman (5-4/16-5) won at Villanova and began the season with a 12-0 record. They are just 4-5 in their last nine games, including losses to the other three top teams.
Southland Conference
This league has fallen back near the bottom of the conference pack the last couple of years, and unless there are some really bad teams pulling off upsets to get to the Big Dance, the league's qualifier will most likely be placed in Dayton in the First Four.
Sam Houston State (7-0/12-8) has emerged from the shadows of Abilene Christian (6-2/17-4) to take command of the conference race, but the Bearkats have road games to play against the top contenders and could relinquish their game and a half lead over ACU.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
In recent years, this has been the lowest ranked conference in Division 1, but this league has a storied history with teams that have outperformed their expectations. Almost every team must play "paycheck" road games in November and December to fund their programs, so usually every single team begins conference play with a winning percentage under 30%.
Prairie View (7-0/9-11) played its first 12 games on the road and began the season 1-11. The Panthers have since won eight games in a row by better than 10 points per game. Alabama State (6-1/8-10) played two home games early, but they were against two non-scholarship Division 3 teams. The Hornets will get a chance to sting Prairie View on the Panthers' home floor a week from tonight.
Texas Southern (4-3/9-11) has a history of getting hot at the right time and winning the SWAC Tournament. The Tigers might be the potential most competitive league team in the NCAA Tournament, as they own a win at Baylor, at Oregon, and at Georgia, as well as competitive losses at Iowa State and Arizona State. Coach Johnny Jones has taken LSU and North Texas to past NCAA Tournaments.
South Dakota State (7-1/17-6) has become one of those teams that the nation knows about because they seem to win their conference every year. The Jackrabbits have won five of the last seven conference tournaments, but they have yet to put a mark on the left side of the won-loss ledger once they arrived at the Dance. They have come close in the first round against two Big Ten teams in recent years, and this year might give SDSU a third try against a Michigan, Michigan State, or Purdue as a 15-seed against a 2-seed.
SDSU's chief rivals this year are Omaha (6-2/12-9) and Purdue Fort Wayne (5-3/13-10). Both teams have the potential to run off 100 points on a given night, but neither has the defense to win three games in three days, unless SDSU falters, and their path to the automatic bid comes against weak opponents.
This may be the most balanced league in college basketball as seven teams are not that different from each other. Georgia State (6-2/15-6) and Texas State (6-2/17-4) lead the rest of the pack, but neither team is strong enough to dominate the rest of the league.
Texas-Arlington (5-3/9-12), Georgia Southern (5-3/13-8), UL-Monroe (4-3/11-8), Louisiana (4-3/13-7), and Coastal Carolina (4-3/10-9) could just as easily get hot and win the SBC Tournament, but whoever wins is likely to quickly exit as a 14 or 15-seed.
Georgia State has won the automatic bid two of the last four seasons, and Coach Ron Hunter has the one of the league's two most recent NCAA Tournament victories, knocking off 3-seed Baylor in 2015. Texas State has the best defense of the top contenders, but the Bobcats have the weakest offense of the contenders.
Georgia Southern Coach Mark Byington comes from the Bobby Cremins coaching tree, which makes him a branch of the Frank McGuire tree. The Eagles can pick teams apart with steal after steal and get out and run in transition. Many times, teams like this begin to gel in February and early March, so watch out for Georgia Southern come SBC Tournament time. The only possible pitfall is that sometimes teams like this get to March very fatigued.
In recent years, New Mexico State (5-1/16-4) has enjoyed a dynasty in the WAC with NCAA Tournament berths six out of the last seven seasons and eight in the last dozen years. NMSU has done this with four different head coaches, but the best of the quartet might be current head man Chris Jans. The Aggies could have a team capable of breaking through in the NCAA Tournament this year, as they scared the daylights out of Kansas, leading the Jayhawks into the second half.
NMSU will not be handed the conference championship of tournament championship, as there are two or three other teams that can knock them off. In recent years, Grand Canyon (6-1/13-7) has been the Aggies' chief nemesis. Former NBA Mr. Hustle Dan Majerle has built GCU in his own image, and the Antelopes "hit the dirt" as often as Vince Coleman and Maury Wills used to do on the diamond. Teams that don't hustle pay the price against the Antelopes, and now Majerle has enough talent to get to the Big Dance.
The team that has emerged as the surprise leader in the league is Cal State Bakersfield (6-1/14-6). Coach Rod Barnes has experience taking teams picked to finish in the middle of the pack to the conference penthouse in the past. He won an SEC championship at Ole Miss and took three Rebel teams to the NCAA Tournament. He has already upset New Mexico State in the WAC Championship Game to earn a bid at Bakersfield.
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2011 PiRate NCAA Basketball Tournament Preview
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Akron, Alabama State, Alabama-Birmingham, Arizona, Arkansas-Little Rock, Ashton Gibbs, basketball, Belmont, Big Dance, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bob Huggins, Boston University, Bracket-picking, Bracketology, Brackets, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bucknell, Butler, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Coach K, college, Connecticut, Duke, East, E'Twaun Moore, Elite Eight, Final Four, First Four, Florida, Florida State, Formula, George Mason, Georgetown, Georgia, Gonzaga, Hampton, Illinois, Indiana State, Isaiah Thomas, Jacob Pullen, JaJuan Johnson, Jim Beilein, Jim Boeheim, Jim Calhoun, Jimmer Fredette, John Calipari, John Thompson, Kansas, Kansas State, Keith Benson, Kemba Walker, Kenneth Faried, Kentucky, Lon Kruger, Long Island, Louisville, Mark Few, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Mick Cronin, Midwest, Mike Anderson, Missouri, Morehead State, National Championship, NCAA, Nolan Smith, North Carolina, Northern Colorado, Notre Dame, Oakland, Ohio State, Old Dominion, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Princeton, Purdue, Regional, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Pitino, Roy Williams, San Diego State, South, Southern California, St. John's, St. Peter's, Steve Fisher, Sweet 16, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas-San Antonio, Thad Matta, Tom Izzo, tournament, UC-Santa Barbara, UCLA, UNC-Asheville, UNLV, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington, West, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wofford, Xavier, Zeke Marshall — piratings @ 7:01 pm
1. Which teams meet the upper range criteria in every category? That means they outscored their opponents by eight or more per game; their field goal percentage was greater than 7.5% better than their opponents; they outrebounded their opponents by five or more per game; they forced at least three more turnovers per game than they committed; and they stole the ball 7.5 or more times per game.
ANSWER—No teams this year meet all the perfect criteria described above. Six teams come close to meeting the perfect criteria, but all fall short in at least one statistic. This means there is no clear-cut favorite—only six teams that most closely resemble the great champions of the past. Of the six, three come from power conferences. These three are Kansas, Ohio State, and Syracuse.
Kansas fails to meet the turnover margin requirement, but the Jayhawks surpass all the other qualifications. Ohio State comes up a tad bit short in field goal percentage margin, rebounding margin, and steals per game, but just misses in all three. Syracuse misses in rebounding and turnover margin, but they Orangemen do not miss by much.
2. Which teams can be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating? Which teams have an incredibly low R+T Rating (<2.0)?
ANSWER—Three teams can immediately be eliminated due to negative R+T Ratings. It comes as no surprise that Alabama State and Texas-San Antonio, two teams facing off in the First Round in Dayton, have negative R+T ratings. The third team is Michigan. The Wolverines were outrebounded by 1.9 boards per game, and they only had a +1.4 turnover margin with just 4.7 steals per game.
Five other teams finished with R+T ratings less than 2.0. This usually means one and done for these teams, unless they have outstanding FG% margins or cupcake opponents with worse criteria numbers. Those five teams are: Penn State, Richmond, St. Peter's, UCLA, and UCSB.
3. Which teams are capable of winning it all?
ANSWER—We separate the contenders from the pretenders by looking at the total PiRate Criteria score and then looking to see if the high criteria scoring teams receive merit on every individual statistic.
Last year, Duke was head and heels better than the other 64 teams. The Blue Devils had the highest score overall, and they satisfactorily rated in every PiRate category.
No teams appear to be as strong this year as the Blue Devils were last year, but nine teams meet most of the minimum requirements to be considered Final Four contenders this year.
It should come as no surprise that the top two teams, Ohio State and Kansas, rank at the top in the Criteria. Kansas actually has the highest score of the 68 teams, a score of 23. The Jayhawks outscored their opposition by 17.2 points, shot 11.7% better from the field than their opponents, and outrebounded their opponents by 7.8 boards per game. These stats are worthy of a powerhouse. However, KU enjoyed just a 0.9 turnover margin and stole the ball 7.9 times per game, giving the Jayhawks an R+T Rating of 9.5. We tend to look for teams with an R+T Rating in excess of 10, so KU is not a great favorite to go all the way.
Ohio State's total Criteria score is 21, good for second best. However, the Buckeyes enjoy an R+T Rating of 13.2, which is a number we really like in a Final Four contender. This number correlates to 13 extra scoring opportunities that their opposition does not receive. OSU outscores their opponents by 17.3 points per game, shot 6.9% better from the field than they allows, outrebounded their opponents by 4.9 per game, had a turnover margin of +4.8, and stole the ball 7.2 times per game.
San Diego State comes in third with 19 total criteria points. BYU, Pittsburgh, and Texas come in next with 18 points; the Panthers have an R+T rating above 10. The other three teams with PiRate Criteria scores showing themselves to be strong contenders for a Final Four berth are Syracuse, Purdue, and Duke.
Florida, North Carolina, and UNLV are actually almost in a statistical tie with Duke, meaning those three are dark horse candidates for the Final Four.
Overall, this is the weakest field by far in the six tournaments where we have ranked the teams according to our criteria. Looking back, this could be the weakest field since the tournament expanded to 64 teams.
North Carolina State, Kansas, and Villanova won national titles in the past with less than stellar numbers. We do not have all the statistics from those years, so we cannot really calculate criteria numbers for those three champions. Could this be a season in which one team gets hot for six games and comes from out of the pack to win it all? It could happen, but we are sticking with this mechanical system and going with its results. Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Texas appear to be the best PiRate Criteria matches to past Final Four teams, and they are the quartet we officially pick to make it to Houston. Syracuse becomes the wildcard team that could sneak into the mix.
Here is a look at the First Four Round One games and the 32 second round games. The number in (parentheses) represents the PiRate Bracketnomics criteria number.
First Four Round
#16 Texas-San Antonio 19-13 (Elim) vs. #16 Alabama State 17-17 (Elim)
At first, we thought this was highly ironic, but upon further review, we consider it sort of a compliment. These two teams both must be eliminated based on negative R+T ratings. Of course, one of them must win this game so that they can advance to a 25-point or more loss in the next round.
Most of you filling out your brackets do not have to worry about these games in Dayton. You get to turn in your choices after these games have been played.
UTSA has better criteria numbers after you factor out both teams' R+T numbers.
Prediction: Texas-San Antonio 64 Alabama State 55
#12 U A B 22-8 (2) vs. #12 Clemson 21-11 (1)
If you have been following the "experts" since the pairings were announced Sunday evening, then you know that these two teams do not belong in the tournament in their opinion. It is not our mission statement to declare which teams should and should not have been included in the Big Dance, but we will tell you that Harvard and Saint Mary's enjoyed Criteria scores several points better than these two teams, while Colorado and Virginia Tech had equal numbers to these two.
This game should be as close as the criteria scores show. UAB has a one-point advantage in the criteria, but the Blazers just do not excel in any stage of the game. Clemson's strong point is forcing turnovers by way of steals, and that leads to a lot of cheap baskets. Cheap baskets pay off big time in the NCAA Tournament, so we will take the Tigers in this one.
Prediction: Clemson 74 UAB 67
#11 Southern Cal 19-14 (-1) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth 23-11 (-1)
The winner of this game is going home two days later. Neither team merits inclusion in the Big Dance this year.
Southern Cal has no apparent weakness according to the PiRate Criteria. In fact, they have a great resume—for an NIT team.
The Trojans outscore their opponents by four points per game, and they outshoot them by 3.3%. They have a small rebounding margin of 1.2, and they have an even smaller turnover margin of 0.6. They average six steals per game and have a R+T rating of 2.1. On top of these modest numbers, their schedule was average.
VCU is much in the same boat as USC with two exceptions. They have a negative turnover margin, but they also average 8.5 steals per game.
The only other difference in these teams is their records away from home. USC won only 41% of their games, while VCU won 60%.
This one is quite tough to pick, but we will go with the Trojans due to their superior inside talent. We expect USC to win the rebounding edge by at least five.
Prediction: Southern Cal 65 V C U 60
#16 UNC-Asheville 19-13 (-5) vs. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock 19-16 (-13)
Obviously, we have two teams that would not even merit NIT bids had they lost in the championship games of their conference tournaments. UALR has one of the lowest Criteria Scores in the seven years we have been calculating this data.
UNC-Asheville actually has a couple of positive Criteria stats. Their R+T is 5.5, which had it come against a more difficult schedule, would have made them worthy of becoming a possible team to watch in the Round of 64.
We will go with UNCA here, as schedule strength is about the same for both teams.
Prediction: UNC-Asheville 69 Arkansas-Little Rock 59
Second-Round Games
#1 Ohio State 32-2 (21) vs. #16 UTSA (Elim)/Alabama State (Elim)
This game will be over quickly. There will be no scare, not even for two TV timeouts. The second highest Criteria score versus one of the teams with an R+T Rating of "Eliminate."
The Buckeyes outscored their opponents by more than 17 points per game. Their strength of schedule was 13 points better than UTSA and 16 points better than Alabama State.
We will go under the theory that UTSA will be the opponent in this game. Using our Criteria Rating, Ohio State figures to be 30-40 points better than UTSA. Coach Thad Matta will definitely empty his bench early in this game, so the Buckeyes may "only win" by 25-30.
Prediction: Ohio State 78 Texas-San Antonio 50
#8 George Mason 26-6 (8) vs. #9 Villanova 21-11 (5)
George Mason is the higher seed in this game, so if they win, it cannot really be considered an upset.
Villanova was on course to be a four-seed when the Wildcats were 16-5 and contending for the Big East Conference regular season title. The Wildcats could not compete down low against the more physical teams in their league.
George Mason has a higher PiRate Criteria Score, but it is not an insurmountable advantage. The key stat for this game is the R+T Rating. For GMU, it is 6.8. For VU, it is 4.9. Considering that Villanova played a harder schedule, these numbers basically cancel each other out, thus making this a tossup game.
There are two variables to consider here. George Mason performed much better on the road, and Villanova is banged up a bit.
Prediction: George Mason 66 Villanova 62
#5 West Virginia 20-11 (6) vs. #12 UAB (2)/Clemson (1)
We believe the Mountaineers will be facing Clemson in this game, but the prediction will hold up if they play UAB.
West Virginia is not as good this season as last season, and the Mountaineers will not advance to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight. They are liable to be out by the end of the weekend. However, they are strong enough to get into the Round of 32.
The Mountaineers best attribute is that they put up decent numbers against one of the toughest schedules in the country. Of the NCAA Tournament teams, only Georgetown played a tougher schedule. They will have to limit turnovers, or else this game will be close and go down to the wire. We believe Coach Bob Huggins will be able to keep the pace at a level he likes and not allow Clemson (or UAB) to force the Mountaineers into enough mistakes to turn the tide.
Prediction: West Virginia 69 Clemson 62 (Or UAB 58)
#4 Kentucky 25-8 (14) vs. #13 Princeton 25-6 (-2)
Princeton has pulled off the big upset in the past, and they came within a missed jumper at the buzzer of becoming the only #16 seed to beat a #1 seed. However, that was two decades ago. The Tigers have not been to the NCAA Tournament in seven years, and that big win over UCLA was 15 years ago.
Kentucky is not the type of team that will allow Princeton's style of play to affect their style of play. The Wildcats should actually play better than their norm with fewer mistakes.
We believe that Princeton will actually crumble under relentless man-to-man pressure and turn the ball over enough times in the opening minutes of the game to allow the Wildcats to open a quick double-digit lead. This group of Cats tends to fiddle around a little once they get a quick double-digit lead and then play uninspired ball until the opponent makes a run. Then, they go on the attack at the right time and put the game away.
Adolph Rupp had a team just like this in 1958. They were called "The Fiddlin' Five." They were also called National Champions. We won't go so far as to put UK into this category, but we will advance the Wildcats into the next round and then into the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Kentucky 72 Princeton 59
#6 Xavier 24-7 (8) vs. #11 Marquette 20-14 (3)
If you are looking for a tough, hard-fought game with two Midwestern teams, then tune into this game Friday evening.
If the Musketeers were a little more competent at forcing turnovers, they could be a dark horse candidate to advance to the Elite Eight. XU shoots the ball well and plays well on defense when it comes to preventing a lot of easy shots. They do well on the boards, and against a team that cannot exploit their ball-handling and ball-hawking deficiencies, they will hold their own inside. The only other possible problem for the Musketeers is a lack of depth, but in the NCAA Tournaments, TV timeouts are longer. It is hard to wear a team down with such long breaks every four or so minutes.
Marquette does not have enough depth to take advantage of Xavier's lack of depth, so this factor will become a non-factor. The Golden Eagles got to this tournament due to their ability to put the ball into the basket. Marquette needs to shoot better than 46% to win, while Xavier is adept at holding teams under 45% as a rule.
Prediction: Xavier 71 Marquette 65
#3 Syracuse 26-7 (17) vs. #14 Indiana State 20-13 (-4)
Syracuse has been getting very little national exposure since their 18-0 start ended with an 8-7 finish. The Orangemen are a team to watch in this tournament. If not for a pedestrian 71% winning percentage away from the Carrier Dome, we would have them as one of the top four teams in this tournament.
Coach Jim Boeheim's team outscores their opposition by 10.3 points per game; they outshoot them by 7.6%, and they outrebound them by 3.6 boards per game. Their turnover margin is +1.9, and they averaged almost nine steals per game. Their R+T Rating is 7.6, and their Strength of Schedule is somewhere between above-average and very good. This is the Criteria Score of a team that will advance to the Sweet 16 and compete for an Elite Eight and Final Four berth.
Indiana State needs the return of Larry Bird to win this game. They are too perimeter-oriented. The Sycamores do not have the beef down low to contend in the paint, and even though Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone, teams rarely beat the Orangemen by firing up 25 long-range bombs.
This one smells like a blowout.
Prediction: Syracuse 81 Indiana State 62
#7 Washington 23-10 (13) vs. #10 Georgia 21-11 (2)
Washington is one of those teams that can play with anybody in this tournament—when they are playing up to their potential. The Huskies could also exit in the first round if they play like they did the weekend they went to Oregon and Oregon State.
Georgia is much more consistent, but their best effort will not defeat the Huskies' best effort.
Washington lacked the seasoned experience this season, and it showed when they ventured away from Seattle. The Huskies lost to weaker opponents because they lacked the composure to win on foreign courts. That changed when they arrived in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament. Isaiah Thomas took over command of the team and led them to the tournament title. This makes UW a scary and dangerous team capable of returning to the Sweet 16.
Georgia must really dominate the glass in this game, because we believe they will turn the ball over too many times against UW's pressure man-to-man defense. It is our opinion that the Bulldogs will play a little timidly at the start of this game and find themselves in a hole.
The Bulldogs had trouble against Alabama's defense, and Washington is similar but with a much better offense.
Prediction: Washington 78 Georgia 70
#2 North Carolina 26-7 (15) vs. #15 Long Island 27-5 (-1)
Long Island is just the type of team that can forget that their opponent is a dynasty program that chews up and spits out little programs like this.
Teams from Brooklyn don't intimidate easily, especially when they are led by a trio of Texans. So, LIU will not be intimidated, but will they be talented enough to make a game of this contest?
That's the rub. They lack the defensive ability to slow down the Tar Heels, while Coach Roy Williams' team will be able to hold the Blackbirds under their scoring average. The big problem for LIU will be holding onto the ball, and we could see North Carolina forcing 20 turnovers in this game. When the Tar Heels force more turnovers than they commit, they are almost unbeatable. This game could be interesting for a short time, but it will eventually get out of hand.
Prediction: North Carolina 88 Long Island 70
#1 Duke 30-4 (15) vs. #16 Hampton 24-8 (-8)
Duke has nothing to worry about here. This will be like one of their November/December home games where they quickly put the cupcake away with a barrage of power and speed. You know the type: a 37-point win over Princeton; a 34-point win over Miami of Ohio; a 52-point win over Colgate.
Hampton got to the Dance using an aggressive defense and three-point shooting barrage on offense. Duke will not be affected by the defensive pressure, and they will cut off the open shots from the outside. It will be a mercy killing, and it will be quick. Look for the Blue Devils to be up by more than 15 points before the halfway point of the first half. By the time Coach K empties the bench, the Blue Devils should be up by 25-30 points.
Prediction: Duke 81 Hampton 61
#8 Michigan 20-13 (Elim) vs. #9 Tennessee 19-14 (10)
Michigan is the highest-rated team that fails to meet our R+T Rating requirement, so the Wolverines are automatically tabbed as a first-round loser.
Coach Jim Beilein has been in a similar position before. He guided a West Virginia team with not-so-flashy Criteria numbers to the Elite Eight, where they forced Louisville to come from 20 points down to rally for the victory. That WVU team had one of the worst negative rebounding numbers of any team in Elite Eight history, but that team made few mistakes and had a nice turnover margin.
This Michigan team was only outrebounded by two a game, but they do not create enough extra possessions with their miniscule turnover margin of 1.4 and their average of just 4.7 steals per game.
Tennessee has been up and down, and the Volunteers are not going to make a repeat run to the Elite Eight this year. However, Coach Bruce Pearl's troops will control the boards in this game and maybe force more turnovers than they commit. We figure that Tennessee will have 10 more opportunities to score in this game, and that is too many for the Wolverines to make up with their three-point shooting.
Prediction: Tennessee 74 Michigan 69
#5 Arizona 27-7 (3) vs. #12 Memphis 25-9 (-1)
Memphis was not going to earn an at-large bid this season had they failed to win the Conference USA Tournament. They received an ideal first round opponent, and the Tigers actually have a fighting chance to pull off yet another classic #12-seed over #5-seed upset.
Arizona needs to pound the ball inside and rely on numerous offensive rebounds to win this game. Other teams might be able to exploit Memphis's poor ball-handling skills, but the Wildcats do not have the defensive acumen to take advantage here.
Memphis will try to make this an up-tempo game where they can neutralize Arizona's height advantage inside. It has a chance of working, but Arizona probably has too much power inside and just enough quickness to stop the Tigers' transition game.
Prediction: Arizona 76 Memphis 69
#4 Texas 27-7 (18) vs. #13 Oakland 25-9 (3)
This has become a popular upset pick in the media. Oakland has generated a lot of positive press, and many "experts" are calling for the upset in this game. We are not one of them. Not only do we believe the Longhorns will take care of Oakland with relative ease in this game, we believe Texas is a force to be reckoned with in the next two or three rounds.
Let's look at Texas' Criteria Rating. At 18, the 'Horns rate as our sixth best team in the tournament. They have a 13.5 point scoring margin, a 7.1% field goal margin, a 6.6 rebounding margin, and a 1.2 turnover margin. Their only Achilles Heel is a low amount of steals resulting in a R+T Rating of 8.3. Had that number been above 10, we would be selecting Coach Rick Barnes' team for the Final Four.
Oakland won this year with strong rebounding and an excellent ability to force their opponents into bad shots. Center Keith Benson is a future NBA player, but he is not enough to propel the Golden Grizzlies into the next round.
Prediction: Texas 77 Oakland 65
#6 Cincinnati 25-8 (9) vs. #11 Missouri 23-9 (10)
On paper, this looks like the best game of this round between a team with contrasting styles.
Cincinnati is one of the top defensive teams in the tournament. The Bearcats are tough inside, and they have quality depth to continue playing hard in the paint.
Missouri uses the "40 minutes of Hell" approach that Coach Mike Anderson learned under his mentor Nolan Richardson. The Tigers press full court and run the fast break as often as they get the chance. They are perimeter-oriented and can score a lot of points in a hurry.
When we try to decide tossup games, we look to the all-important defense and rebounding stats, since that is what wins close games in the Big Dance.
Missouri is vulnerable in both of these crucial areas. They have given up a lot of cheap baskets this year when teams solved their press. The Tigers were outrebounded by 1.7 boards per game.
Cincinnati owns a +2.7 rebounding margin, and the Bearcats held onto the ball quite competently. We believe Coach Mick Cronin's crew will advance.
Prediction: Cincinnati 68 Missouri 65
#3 Connecticut 26-9 (9) vs. #14 Bucknell 25-8 (-4)
Ask Kansas Coach Bill Self if it is wise to underestimate Bucknell. The Bison know how to hold onto the ball and work for intelligent shots. Give them an opening, and they can bury you with a high field goal percentage.
Connecticut did the unthinkable by winning five games in five days. Their defense does not get the merit it deserves, because Kemba Walker gets more attention for his offensive antics. The Huskies actually held teams under 40% from the field.
Coach Jim Calhoun knows how to prepare a team for tournament action. He will have UConn ready for this game, and the Huskies will not overlook the Bison.
Prediction: Connecticut 73 Bucknell 58
#7 Temple 25-7 (5) vs. #10 Penn State 19-14 (-1)
Temple's score must be tempered by the fact that they are a wounded team coming into this tournament. Two starters suffered injuries late in the season, and one is out for the remainder of the year, while the other may or may not be ready to play. We must throw out Temple's score of "5" in the PiRate Criteria, because 40% of the key players that produced that number will either not play or be greatly less effective.
Penn State is a lot like Southern Cal in this tournament. The Nittany Lions have the look of a strong NIT team. Aside from a so-so record against a strong schedule, they really have little to offer outside of one star player.
We believe this Keystone State rivalry game will be close, and it could come down to the last shot. Because the Owls are limping, we will go with the Big Ten representative.
Prediction: Penn State 59 Temple 56
#2 San Diego State 32-2 (19) vs. #15 Northern Colorado 21-10 (-6)
Most of you reading this probably cannot remember Texas Western University, but you may have scene the movie where the Miners were too quick for Kentucky and pulled off the big upset to win the 1966 National Championship. Maybe some of you remember the Long Beach State 49ers ascension into the top 10 under Jerry Tarkanian and then Lute Olson. Still more can remember when Tark the Shark moved to UNLV and turned the Runnin' Rebels into a national power.
San Diego State is the next Western team to fit this bill. The Aztecs are legitimate contenders to advance deep into this tournament. They have few exploitable weaknesses, and they are the best team West of the Rockies. Coach Steve Fisher knows how to get teams ready for tournament play, as he has three Final Fours on his resume and one National Championship.
SDSU's PiRate Criteria numbers are flashy. Their scoring margin is 13.3 points per game. Their FG% margin is 7.1%. They outrebound their opposition by almost seven per game, and they force 1.6 more turnovers than they commit. Their one weak spot is a pedestrian 6.2 steals average. If they run up against a more powerful team inside, they could have trouble getting enough extra scoring opportunities.
Northern Colorado will not be one of those teams that can cause trouble for the Aztecs. The Bears are a good rebounding team, but their rebounding prowess came against a schedule that rates 10 points weaker than San Diego State's schedule.
Prediction: San Diego State 73 Northern Colorado 51
Southwest Regional
#1 Kansas 32-2 (23) vs. #16 Boston U 21-13 (-11)
Kansas is a team on a mission. The Jayhawks will not allow a repeat of what happened last year, and that extra incentive should be enough to send KU to Houston.
Kansas has the top PiRate Criteria Score this year. They meet the basic requirements that most prior National Champions have met—scoring margin: 17.2; FG% margin: 11.7; Rebounding margin: 7.8; Turnover Margin: 0.9; Steals per game: 7.9; R+T Ratings: 9.5.
How do you beat this year's KU team? Kansas State and Texas pulled it off by matching up well inside and going head-to-head with them in the paint.
Boston U has the second lowest PiRate Criteria score of the 65 teams that have positive R+T Ratings. The Terriers are way overmatched in this game, and they will have to be glad they just made it here.
Prediction: Kansas 90 Boston U 62
#8 U N L V 24-8 (15) vs. #9 Illinois 19-13 (1)
If our ratings are worth their salt, then this game should not be all that close. UNLV may be just the third best team in the Mountain West, but the MWC was better overall this year than the Pac-10. Third best in the MWC makes the Runnin' Rebels one of the dozen or so teams capable of making a two weekend run.
Coach Lon Kruger has taken two different teams to the Elite Eight (Kansas State and Florida). His teams play intelligently without being flashy.
UNLV went 24-3 against teams not named Brigham Young or San Diego State. They are not particularly strong on the boards, and this will eventually be their downfall. The Rebels shoot the ball brilliantly, and they alter enough opponent shots to force a lower field goal percentage. They also take care of the ball and do not make a lot of floor mistakes.
Illinois is an inconsistent, underachieving team. This can be dangerous for the prognosticator, because it is difficult if not impossible to predict which schizophrenic state will appear for each game.
The Illini are not particularly strong on the glass or at taking care of the ball, and that is a recipe for disaster when the opponent is as good as UNLV. Even if Illinois comes out playing their best basketball, it may not be enough to beat UNLV playing their typical game.
Prediction: U N L V 72 Illinois 64
#5 Vanderbilt 23-10 (5) vs. #12 Richmond 26-7 (2)
Here is another game getting a lot of attention due to its upset potential. Historically, the #12 seed produces the a lot of great upsets.
This game could go either way. Both teams have exploitable weaknesses, and it just so happens that both teams' have the assets capable of exploiting the other's weaknesses.
Let's start with Vanderbilt. The Commodores are not particularly strong on the defensive perimeter. Worthy opponents have been able to beat them off the drive and get a lot of open inside shots. This weak perimeter defense has also led to frontcourt players having to help, thus leaving open holes near the basket.
Richmond's offense is a modified version of the Princeton Offense. The Spiders have the talent to get open shots inside and in the five to ten-foot range.
Richmond cannot rebound against more physical teams. The Spiders make up for their rebounding liabilities by seldom throwing the ball away.
Vanderbilt has an excellent physical presence inside with three beefy players that can rebound the ball on offense and defense.
So, which team gets the edge in our PiRate Ratings? We always look to defense in rebounding in tossup games. Vanderbilt holds the rebounding edge, while Richmond holds the defensive edge. It is basically a wash, so we have to look elsewhere. While Richmond has been much better away from home, Vanderbilt's schedule is seven points more difficult. We'll go with the power conference team, but not by much
Prediction: Vanderbilt 70 Richmond 67
#4 Louisville 25-9 (12) vs. #13 Morehead State 24-9 (3)
This should be an interesting game, but in the end the big brothers are going to defeat their little brothers in this battle of two Bluegrass State teams.
40 years ago this week, another little brother upset a big brother on their way to a surprise appearance in the Final Four (later vacated). In 1971, Western Kentucky did not just upset Kentucky, the Hilltoppers ran the Wildcats off the floor. Can there be a repeat two score later? No!
Coach Rick Pitino's Cardinals are vulnerable on the boards, and Morehead State has the nation's best rebounder in the nation in Kenneth Faried. However, the Eagles do not have enough talent or depth to keep up with Louisville. They may emerge with a slight rebounding edge in this game, but it will not be enough to make up for all the open shots the Cardinals will get.
Louisville is going to run into trouble when they meet up with a team that can rebound and play credible defense. That would be Kansas in the Sweet 16. Until then, they have a relatively easy route to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Louisville 78 Morehead State 62
#6 Georgetown 21-10 (8) vs. #11 Southern Cal (-1)/Va. Commonwealth (-1)
Last year, we discussed Georgetown's vulnerabilities and the probability that they would fail to make it past the first weekend. We expected the Hoyas to fall as a favorite in their second game, but they were a one and done team.
This year's team is not much better than last year's Hoya team, but they received a much more favorable draw.
Coach John Thompson III's Hoyas once again have a rather low R+T Rating thanks to a turnover margin of -1.9 and a low amount of steals per game. They will exit from the tournament in the next round unless there is a monumental upset in their pairing.
Neither USC nor VCU has the talent to take advantage of Georgetown's deficiencies. The three teams combined have a R+T rating below Purdue's.
One additional note: The Hoyas will be a tad bit better than their Criteria Score in the tournament. Chris Wright suffered a hand fracture in the middle of the schedule, and he is expected to be near 100% for the tournament. You have to add maybe one point to their Criteria Score, but that is not enough to put them over the top in their second game.
Prediction: Georgetown 69 Southern Cal 61 (or VCU 60)
#3 Purdue 25-7 (16) vs. #14 St. Peter's 20-13 (-7)
If only… Purdue fans will never know just how good their team might have been with Robbie Hummel joining JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore playing together. This would have been the best Boilermaker team since Rick Mount led Purdue to the Championship Game against UCLA in 1969.
The Boilermakers no longer have that one glaring weakness that Gene Keady's teams had and thus prevented Purdue from getting past the second round. This team does well on the boards like most of those past Purdue teams, but they are particularly strong when it comes to forcing turnovers and taking advantage by converting steals into points. It is the way many teams go on runs that put opponents out of commission.
St. Peter's just barely avoided being immediately eliminated with a negative R+T Rating. They squeaked by at 0.1. It might as well be a negative number, as the Peacocks were outrebounded by 0.4 per game and had a turnover margin of -0.9 against a schedule that was four points below average and seven points weaker than the schedule Purdue faced.
Prediction: Purdue 73 St. Peter's 56
#7 Texas A&M 24-8 (8) vs. #10 Florida State 21-10 (2)
The Big 12's third best team has enough talent to challenge for a Sweet 16 berth. We'll leave the next round for another time and talk about this game.
The Aggies have no glaring weakness, and they have a few strengths, namely rebounding and defense (which wins games in the NCAA Tournament). They are much like Kansas Lite. A&M was not a team of surprises during the regular season. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and failed to upset the teams better than they were. We expect the trend to continue. They are better than the Seminoles.
Florida State does not take good care of the ball, and that costs them in confrontations against good opponents. The Seminoles do not play particularly well away from Tallahassee, and they should be making a quick exit from the Dance.
Prediction: Texas A&M 73 Florida State 65
#2 Notre Dame 26-6 (11) vs. #15 Akron 23-12 (-9)
This is the best Irish team since Digger Phelps led Notre Dame in the late 1980's. Throw in the fact that this team has a chip on its shoulders following a first round exit last year, and the Irish have to be considered the Sweet 16 favorite in their four-team pairing this weekend.
The Irish finished the regular season with a scoring margin of 10.4 points per game. Down the stretch, they went 7-2 against teams in this tournament. The Selection Committee placed Notre Dame in a bracket that should provide a very memorable Sweet 16 contest against one of their most bitter arch-rivals.
Akron has a big seven-foot center, but the Zips do not rebound the ball all that well. Zeke Marshall, the aforementioned big man, concentrates his efforts on blocking shots, and he frequently is not in position to rebound the ball. So, the blocked shot frequently turns into a made basket off an offensive rebound. The Zips did not fare well on the road this year, and with a considerably weaker schedule than average, this does not bode well.
Prediction: Notre Dame 81 Akron 57
Southeast Regional
#1 Pittsburgh 27-5 (18) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (-5)/U A L R (-13)
One of us here at the PiRate Ratings might be dating himself, but he sees a lot of the 1962 Cincinnati Bearcats in this year's Pitt team. The Panthers have a dominating inside power game that will pulverize any finesse team that cannot hit 10 three-pointers. Neither UNCA nor UALR has a remote chance to make this game a close contest.
Pitt outscored their opposition by 13.1 points per game. This stat looks even better when you factor in that they compiled this gaudy stat playing in a league that produced 11 NCAA Tournament teams. The Panthers outshot their opponents by 7.6%, and they totally dominated the glass with a 10.4 rebounding advantage. If you are thinking the way to beat them is to play a packed in zone, think again. Ashton Gibbs can bury you from outside with his near 50% three-point accuracy, and Brad Wannamaker can still get the ball inside to one of the bruisers waiting to punish you with a thunder dunk.
Only a negative turnover margin prevents the Panthers from being there with Kansas as a co-favorite for winning all the marbles.
Pitt's cupcake opponent will have to be happy with winning their First Four game, because they will be humiliated in this game.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 78 UNC-Asheville 54 (or UALR 48)
#8 Butler 23-9 (7) vs. #9 Old Dominion 27-6 (10)
This is the second best matchup in this round, and the winner will put a scare into Pittsburgh in the next round and even have a decent shot at the upset.
Butler is now the hunted rather than the hunter. The Bulldogs will not sneak up on anybody this year. More importantly, they are not as talented as they were last year. The Bulldogs fared much better on the road last year than this season. However, down the stretch, Butler started to look like a team proficient enough to get past the first weekend once again.
Old Dominion has the talent to advance past the first weekend as well. The Monarchs are a miniature version of Pittsburgh, the team they would face in the next round should they win this game.
ODU is the nation's number one rebounding team with a +12.2 margin. The Monarchs' schedule was not outstanding, but it was on par with several teams from the so-called power conferences, and they finished 6-4 against teams in this tournament. This is a better ODU team than the one that upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, and this game should be one you do not want to miss.
Prediction: Old Dominion 72 Butler 70 in overtime
#5 Kansas State 22-10 (9) vs. #12 Utah State 30-3 (14)
This is the one game where a number 12 seed winning would not really be all that much of an upset. Utah State should have been a top eight seed in this tournament. If we were conspiracy buffs, we would say that the Selection Committee searched for a team that the Aggies do not match up with all that well and placed them in this spot to verify their actions.
Kansas State does not take care of the ball well enough to advance very deep into this tournament, but their first game opponent cannot take advantage of that weakness.
Utah State has dominated their opponents by forcing them to play a patient half-court game with very little scoring in transition. They prefer to work the ball patiently for a good shot and then force opponents to take a low-percentage shot. Thus, the Aggies outrebound their opponents, but they do so by forcing more bad shots than by out-leaping their opponents.
Kansas State has the talent to force Utah State to play at a quicker tempo and force them to defend one-on-one. Jacob Pullen is a poor man's (and smaller) Derrick Rose. He can break down most opponents off the dribble, and he should be able to force USU to resort to some type of combination defense to keep him from going wild.
What scares us most about Utah State is that they had two opportunities to show they are deserving of their lofty ranking. They lost to BYU and to Georgetown, and they never really threatened to pull of the upset in either game.
This is one game where we are going to go against our own chalk. Kansas State's schedule was seven points tougher, and the Wildcats can exploit the Aggies' weaknesses.
Prediction: Kansas State 70 Utah State 63
#4 Wisconsin 23-8 (7) vs. #13 Belmont 30-4 (9)
This game has become the most-picked upset special around the nation. Belmont is being compared with Butler of last year. The Bruins are lofty of all this attention-gathering admiration, but Wisconsin is not the Washington Generals.
Belmont has the highest scoring margin in the nation at 18.4 points per game. The Bruins outshot their opposition by 5.7% per game, and they took a lot of three-point attempts. They outrebounded their opponents by 3.9, and they had an eye-popping 5.3 turnover margin. They share the top steals per game average in this tournament with Missouri at 9.7, and their R+T Rating is the best in the tournament at 16.2 (three better than number two Ohio State).
Of course, these statistics were compiled against inferior competition. Belmont's schedule strength is nine points below the national average and a dozen below their first round opponent. Against the opponents that made it to this tournament, they were 1-3. They beat Alabama State by 13. The three losses were on the road to in-state rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt, but they led in the second half of those games.
The last time Belmont was in the Big Dance, the Bruins came within a missed last shot of sending Duke home.
Wisconsin was not expected to be this good in 2011. This was supposed to be a minor rebuilding season for the Badgers. The Badgers usually run Coach Bo Ryan's Swing Offense with great efficiency, rarely turning the ball over. They outscored their opponents by 9.9 points per game, and they outshot they outrebounded them by 3.8 boards per game.
The Badgers have been a hot and cold team this year. When they have been hot, they have been nearly unbeatable, because Ryan's teams always limit possessions. When they have been cold, they have been easily beatable, because Ryan's teams always limit possessions. They finished the season as cold as ice, so the Badgers must be considered a slight underdog in this game.
Prediction: Belmont 74 Wisconsin 70
#6 St. John's 21-11 (9) vs. #11 Gonzaga 24-9 (13)
Here is a game where we believe the seedings should be switched. Gonzaga has been here enough times to be considered a regular in the NCAA Tournament, like Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and Connecticut. This makes a baker's dozen consecutive appearances in the Big Dance for the Bulldogs.
In past years, Gonzaga had a big scorer that could take over games. Adam Morrison comes to mind. This year, the Zags are more difficult to prepare for, because they are more team-oriented. There is not a big star on the roster, but all five starters are capable of taking the team on his shoulders with a hot night.
In their nine-game winning streak to close the season, Gonzaga eliminated Saint Mary's from the Dance party with two victories. The Bulldogs scoring margin in those nine games was 76-58. This is a good team playing its best ball of the year, and we expect Coach Mark Few to win yet another NCAA Tournament game.
St. John's comes into the tournament minus one of its stars. Starting forward D. J. Kennedy went down for the season with a knee injury in the Big East Tournament, and the Red Storm is now suspect in the paint. Their Criteria Score of nine should be discounted by two to three points. It is enough to take this contest from tossup status to near-comfortable status for Gonzaga.
Prediction: Gonzaga 74 St. John's 66
#3 Brigham Young 30-4 (18) vs. #14 Wofford 21-12 (-1)
So, you didn't get a chance to see Pete Maravich play at LSU in 1968, 1969, or 1970, eh? We must admit that nobody will ever be the collegiate equal for Maravich, but Jimmer Fredette may be the closest thing to him.
Throw out the floppy socks and floppy Beatles haircut and throw out some of the most unbelievable passes in the history of the game (so unbelievable that Maravich's teammates frequently could not see them coming), and Fredette is not that far behind Maravich.
The sports nation will be turning its eyes to this game just to see if Fredette can make a run at a single game scoring mark. If we remember correctly, Notre Dame's Austin Carr set the mark back in 1970 with 61 points against Ohio U in a regional qualifier game.
BYU may have been a strong Final Four contender had Brandon Davies not loved his girlfriend so much. The Cougars averaged 8.7 fewer points per game once Davies was suspended.
Wofford will not be able to take much advantage of Davies' absence. The Terriers fared well in all PiRate Criteria categories, but they did not meet even the minimum "numbers to look for" in any category, and their schedule strength was five points below the norm.
Prediction: Brigham Young 75 Wofford 63
#7 U C L A 22-10 (-3) vs. #10 Michigan State 19-14 (1)
If only this were a few years ago. Neither of these historically dominating teams is going to make waves in this year's tournament, and the winner will be around for just one more game.
UCLA would be a national title contender if Kevin Love had stuck around for four years. Imagine Love as a senior on this team. Can you say Bill Walton-like numbers? Alas, the Bruins must get by with a couple of well above-average forwards instead of the best three-man tandem in the nation.
The Bruins have the worst turnover margin of any team in this tournament. At -3.4, UCLA would need to dominate on the boards, and while they usually win that battle, it is anything but dominating.
Michigan State's one asset year in and year out under Coach Tom Izzo has been their rebounding acumen. For most teams, a +4.3 edge on the boards would be considered outstanding, but in East Lansing, this is considered a down year.
Neither team has done all that well away from their home court this season, and there really is only one stat where one team stands out ahead of the other. MSU's schedule was four points tougher than UCLA's schedule. That's our spread for this game.
Prediction: Michigan State 64 UCLA 60
#2 Florida 26-7 (15) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara 18-13 (-10)
The Gators looked like a potential Final Four team in the last month, at least when they were not playing Kentucky. UCSB is not Kentucky.
Florida tends to commit too many floor mistakes to win four games in this year's tournament. They have enough talent to get through the first weekend, but we do not see the Gators extending their stay after that.
UCSB upset Long Beach State to get here, and the Gauchos are one of the weakest teams in the tournament according to our Criteria Score. With negative rebounding and turnover margins, they just barely escape automatic elimination with a R+T rating of 0.3.
Prediction: Florida 76 U C S B 54
Our Bracket
You have seen the 32 teams that we believe will win the second round games. Here is how we fill out the rest of our bracket.
Third Round Winners
Ohio State over George Mason
Kentucky over West Virginia
Syracuse over Xavier
North Carolina over Washington
Duke over Tennessee
Texas over Arizona
Connecticut over Cincinnati
San Diego State over Penn State
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Vanderbilt
Purdue over Georgetown
Notre Dame over Texas A&M
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Kansas State over Belmont
Gonzaga over Brigham Young
Florida over Michigan State
Sweet 16 Winners
Ohio State over Kentucky
Syracuse over North Carolina
Texas over Duke
San Diego State over Connecticut
Kansas over Louisville
Purdue over Notre Dame
Pittsburgh over Kansas State
Florida over Gonzaga
Elite 8 Winners
Ohio State over Syracuse
Texas over San Diego State
Kansas over Purdue
Pittsburgh over Florida
Semifinal Winners
Ohio State over Texas
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Kansas over Ohio State
Comments Off on 2011 PiRate NCAA Basketball Tournament Preview
NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Albany, America East, American, Arch Madness, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Ball State, basketball, Belmont, Bethune-Cookman, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Boston, Bowling Green, Brian Qvale, Bucknell, Butler, Central Connecticut, Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Cleveland State, Coastal Carolina, college, College of Charleston, Conference, Connecticut, Coppin State, Creighton, Denver, Devon Beitzel, East Tennessee, Fairfield, Florida Atlantic, Furman, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Hampton, Holy Cross, Horizon, Indiana State, IPFW, IUPUI, Jacksonville, Jamal Olasewere, Julian Boyd, Kent State, Lafayette, League, Liberty, Lipscomb, Long Island, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisville, MAAC, MAC, Madison Square Garden, Maine, Marquette, MEAC, Mercer, Miami, Mid-American, Middle Tennessee, Milwaukee, Missouri State, Missouri Valley, Montana, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, NCAA, NEC, northeast, Northern Colorado, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Oakland, Ohio, Ohio Valley, Oral Roberts, OVC, Patriot, Pittsburgh, Quinnipiac, Richmond, robert morris, Russell Johnson, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Southern Conference, St. John's, St. Mary's, Summit League, Sunbelt Conference, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, tournament, U Mass, UNC-Asheville, UNCA, Valparaiso, Velton Jones, Vermont, Villanova, VMI, West Coast Conference, West Virginia, Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wichita State, Wofford, Xavier — piratings @ 8:25 am
Three More Tickets Punched
Horizon League Championship
Butler 59 Milwaukee 44
The Bulldogs held Milwaukee to 30% shooting from the field, and Matt Howard connected on seven of nine shots to pace Butler with 18 points, as the defending National Final runner-up earned another spot in the Big Dance.
Summit League Championship
Oakland 90 Oral Roberts 76
The Golden Grizzlies displayed a great offensive show with the aid of numerous first half steals by Drew Valentine and Reggie Hamilton to build a double-digit lead by the break. After withstanding an early second half run by the Golden Eagles, Oakland pulled away to win the automatic bid.
Keith Benson topped Oakland with 28 points and 14 rebounds. Hamilton added 25 with six assists, while Will Hudson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.
Sunbelt Conference Championship
U A L R 64 North Texas 63
The Trojans won their first Sunbelt Championship and earned their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1990.
SBC Player of the Year Solomon Bozeman drove from the backcourt to the left side of the top of the key and drained a three-pointer with 1.5 seconds remaining to give UALR the decisive points. Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points.
North Texas had led by seven points with less than two minutes to go, but the Mean Green wilted under the Trojan pressure defense. With one last chance to try to win, UNT committed a turnover on the inbounds pass.
11 Automatic Qualifiers To Date
Team Conference Record
Arkansas-Little Rock Sunbelt 19-16
Belmont Atlantic South 30-4
Butler Horizon 23-9
Gonzaga West Coast 24-9
Indiana State Missouri Valley 20-13
Morehead State Ohio Valley 24-9
Oakland Summit 25-9
Old Dominion Colonial 27-6
St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 20-13
UNC-Asheville Big South 19-13
Wofford Southern 21-12
Two Tickets To Be Punched Tonight
Big Sky Tournament Championship @ 9PM ET On ESPN2
#2 Montana (21-9) at #1 Northern Colorado (20-10)
Semifinal Round
Montana 57 Weber State 40
Northern Colorado 73 Northern Arizona 70
These two split their regular season series with Northern Colorado winning 63-45 in Greeley, and Montana winning 55-42 in Missoula. Tonight's game will be played at Butler-Hancock Hall in Greeley, so Northern Colorado will enjoy the home court advantage.
This game is a great study in contrasts. Northern Colorado is a quicker team, but Montana is a stronger team. Northern Colorado has one exceptionally dominant player, while Montana has more, albeit less exceptional, weapons.
The Bears' offense runs through 6-1 senior guard Devon Beitzel. Beitzel averages a league-best 21 points per game, and he is deadly at the free throw line, where he connects on 91% of his tosses.
The rest of the team collectively shoots under 41% from the field and commits more turnovers than assists, so if the Grizzlies can stop Beitzel, or at least limit his touches, they have a chance of defending their crown.
Montana has the dominant big man in the conference in 6-11/260 senior center Brian Qvale. If the Grizzlies can keep this game a half-court affair, they stand a great chance of winning with Qvale plugging the middle on defense and controlling the boards at both ends of the court. Qvale averages 15 points and nine boards a game, and he had a double-double with 16 points and 17 rebounds in the semifinal round. Montana likes to limit possessions, so those numbers are even more impressive than they look.
In the win over UNC, Montana held the Bears to 23.3% shooting, while they shot just 32.6% in the loss at Greeley.
It is our opinion that the visiting number two seed will pull off the mild upset over the host numbone seed, but it is not a strong feeling.
Northeast Conference Tournament Championship @ 7PM ET On ESPN2
#3 Robert Morris (18-13) at #1 Long Island (26-5)
Long Island 69 Central Connecticut 67
Robert Morris 64 Quinnipiac 62
Brooklyn has not been this excited over one of their own sports teams since the Dodgers won the 1955 World Series. Long Island is one of the most exciting teams in the nation, and their 26-5 record has throngs of Brooklynites cramming into the Wellness, Recreation, and Athletic Center. The WRAC holds just 2,500 seats, but you can bet that more than that amount will find their way into the game tonight, as they "Pack the WRAC."
Those fans will be converging to the corner of Ashland and Dekalb tonight, dressed in all white, to watch what could be a blowout win for their team.
LIU is on a roll. The Blackbirds have won 12 games in a row (longest current streak in the nation) and 20 of their previous 21 games. They average almost 83 points per game. The Blackbirds have exceptional depth with eight players capable of scoring 15 or more points.
The Blackbirds pose difficult matchups with their roster, as they rely on quick guards and medium-sized forwards with great leaping ability to play at a fast pace. There is no center on the roster, but the two 6-7 forwards have controlled the boards in most games this year.
Those forwards are Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, who team up for 25.4 points and 15.7 rebounds per game.
5-10 backup guard Jason Brickman plays just 22 minutes per game, but he leads the team with 5.3 assists per game. When he comes in the game, the pace picks up, and the Blackbirds shoot a lot of threes in transition.
Robert Morris is definitely not cannon fodder. The Colonials are the two-time defending NEC Tournament champions, and they believe they can three peat even on the road in hostile conditions.
The Colonials have won eight games in a row, relying on a stellar defense that limits possessions and pressures the guards. They are missing their leading scorer, as 5-9 guard Karon Abraham's season ended two weeks ago with a torn Achilles Tendon. On the positive side, Abraham missed RMU's win at LIU on December 2, as he was serving a multi-game suspension.
Velton Jones and Russell Johnson will have to shine tonight for the Colonials to pull off the upset. The duo are the only double figure scorers left, but both shoot less than 39% from the field.
Without Abraham, RMU shoots just 33.7% from behind the arc, so the only way they can possibly win tonight is to replicate the formula that was successful more than three months ago—control the tempo and prevent LIU from getting off any uncontested three-pointers.
We believe this game will begin slowly with RMU taking the lead in the early stages. Somewhere in the first half, LIU will go on one of their patented runs and gain the lead. Then, a second spurt will give them a commanding lead. RMU might cut into that lead, but we believe in the end, the Blackbirds will be celebrating at the WRAC. We do not believe the Brooklynites will be crying "Wait 'Til Next Year." This will be like October of 1955 in the borough.
Yesterday's Other Tournament Results
LaSalle 75 St. Bonaventure 73 2ot
St. Joseph's 71 George Washington 59 ot
Rhode Island 70 St. Louis 61
Dayton 78 U Mass 50
Connecticut 97 DePaul 71
Rutgers 76 Seton Hall 70 ot
South Florida 70 Villanova 69
Marquette 87 Providence 66
M A C
Bowling Green 74 Northern Illinois 54
Ohio U 74 Toledo 57
Akron 67 Eastern Michigan 53
Buffalo 64 Central Michigan 50
M E A C
MD-Eastern Shore 87 F A M U 85 2ot
S. C. State 64 Delaware State 59
Ivy League Playoff Set
Princeton defeated rival Penn 70-58 last night in Philadelphia, forcing a one-game playoff for the Ivy League's automatic berth. Princeton (24-6) will take on co-champion Harvard (23-5) Saturday afternoon at 4PM Eastern Time. The game will be played at Yale University in New Haven, CT, and it can be seen live on ESPN3.com.
Princeton has appeared in all seven Ivy League tiebreaking playoff games in the history of the league. This is Harvard's first Ivy League basketball championship of any kind. The Crimson last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 1946.
There is a chance that the loser of this game could hold a slim chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Harvard is ranked #35 in the RPI, while Princeton is ranked #49. Harvard has two wins over top 50 teams as well as three losses. Their biggest win was at Boston College. Princeton has just one win against the top 50 and two losses. For the Ivy to earn two bids, the Tigers have to win Saturday and hope Harvard's high RPI is enough to earn the second bid.
Conference Tournaments In Action Today
Tournament Site: Kansas City
1st Round Games
#8 Nebraska (19-11) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (18-12) 12:30 PM ET
#5 Colorado (19-12) vs. #12 Iowa State (16-15) 3 PM ET
#7 Baylor (18-12) vs. #10 Oklahoma (13-17) 7PM ET
#6 Missouri (22-9) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18) 9:30 PM ET
Tournament Site: New York City
2nd Round Games
#8 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #9 Connecticut (22-9) 12 Noon ET on ESPN
#5 St. John's (20-10) vs. #13 Rutgers (15-16) Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN
#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #15 South Florida (10-22) 7 PM ET on ESPN
#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Marquette (19-13) Approx. 9:15 PM ET on ESPN
Tournament Site: El Paso, TX
#8 East Carolina (16-14) vs. #9 Central Florida (19-10) 1 PM ET
#5 Southern Miss (21-9) vs. #12 Tulane (13-16) 3:30 PM ET
#6 Marshall (21-10) vs. #11 Houston (12-17) 7:30 PM ET
#7 S M U (17-13) vs. #10 Rice (13-17) 10 PM ET
Tournament Site: Winston-Salem, NC
Note: The MEAC has a unique way of scheduling their tournament. As a result, one first round game will be played today as well as two quarterfinal round games. The other two quarterfinal round games will be played Thursday.
#6 Norfolk State () vs. #11 Howard () 3 PM ET
Quarterfinal Round
#1 Bethune-Cookman (20-11) vs. #9 South Carolina State (10-21) 7 PM ET
#2 Hampton (21-8) vs. #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (9-21) 9:30 PM ET
Mountain West Conference
Tournament Site: Las Vegas
#8 Wyoming (10-20) vs. #9 T C U (10-21) 5 PM ET
Pac-10 Conference
Tournament Site: Los Angeles
#8 Stanford (15-15) vs. #9 Oregon State (10-19) 9 PM ET on Fox Sports Net
#7 Oregon (14-16) vs. #10 Arizona State (12-18) 11:30 PM ET on Fox Sports Net
Tournament Site: Katy, TX (Houston Area)
#2 Northwestern State (LA) (18-13) vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (16-13) 1 PM ET
#3 Sam Houston (17-12) vs. #6 Stephen F. Austin (18-10) 3:30 PM ET
#1 McNeese State (19-10) vs. #8 Nicholls State (14-13) 7 PM ET
#4 Texas State (15-15) vs. #5 Southeastern Louisiana (15-13) 9:30 PM ET
S W A C
Tournament Site: Garland, TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth Area)
#2 Jackson State (16-14) vs. #7 Prairie View (10-21) 12:30 PM ET
#1 Texas Southern (18-11) vs. #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7-23) 9 PM ET
W A C
#5 Hawaii (18-11) vs. #8 San Jose State (15-14) 3 PM ET
#6 Nevada (12-18) vs. #7 Fresno State (14-16) 5:30 PM ET
Comments Off on NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update
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The Four Newest Dance Invitees
Did you see those conference championship games last night? Was this the Monday Night Fights or basketball? There were more cut men and cut women than in your average boxing card.
When it is all or nothing for these smaller conferences, you get what we saw last night—teams playing like their lives were on the line.
Old Dominion 70
Virginia Commonwealth 65
Old Dominion 27-6
The Monarchs are capable of making a semi-surprise run in the Big Dance. They lead the nation in rebounding margin, and they can score points in the paint.
St. Peter's 62
Iona 57
St. Peter's 20-13
The Peacocks beat Alabama earlier in the season, and their defense could keep them within striking defense in an opening round game, but we cannot see SPC advancing to the second round.
Wofford 77
College of Charleston 67
Wofford 21-12
The Terriers finally beat the Cougars (we predicted this yesterday), and they will not roll over and play dead in the first round. This team returns to the Dance for the second consecutive season, and they will not back down. They may not advance, but they will not be in awe of their heavily favored first round opponent.
Gonzaga 75
Saint Mary's 63
Gonzaga 24-9
This edition of Zags may not be the most talented in the Coach Mark Few era, but they are playing their best ball at the right time. It will depend on their bracket, but this team has Sweet 16 potential.
Three More Invitations Go Out Tonight
By 11:15 PM Eastern Time tonight, we will know the names of three more NCAA Tournament participants. Let's break down these games.
Horizon League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN
Butler (22-9) at Milwaukee (19-12)
Butler defeated Cleveland State in the semifinal round Saturday evening, while Milwaukee topped Valparaiso. During the regular season, Milwaukee swept the Bulldogs, winning 76-52 at home and 86-80 in overtime on the road. The top-seeded Panthers host this game.
Both teams are red hot coming into this title match. Milwaukee has gone 10-1 in their last 11 games, and the only loss was in the Bracketbuster to Buffalo. Their defense is what got them here, as they shoot only 43% from the field and 65% at the foul line.
Three Panthers average double figures in scoring, led by Anthony Hill. Hill averages just under 16 points per game, but he broke out with a 24-point, 11-rebound performance in the semifinal game against Valpo. Kaylon Williams is the X-factor for Panthers. He can score when needed, rebound with the big men, and run the offense. He recorded a triple-double earlier in the season against Butler (10 points-10 rebounds-10 assists), and he added a double-double in the second win over the Bulldogs.
Butler missed Gordon Hayward even more than most experts predicted. The Bulldogs played a tough pre-conference schedule and limped into February. With their backs against the wall, they reeled off eight consecutive victories to get to the title game tonight.
Most basketball fans know Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack from last year's team that made the surprise run to the National Championship Game. The duo has teamed for 32 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this year. However, it has been the emergence of 6-11 sophomore center Andrew Smith that has allowed Butler to turn things around and look like a force to be reckoned with once again. Smith averaged 11 points per game over the second half of the season. In the eight game winning streak, he has averaged 32 minutes per game and pulled down close to eight rebounds per game. His 63% field goal percentage has forced defenses to stop him first, giving Howard and Mack more room to get open. Smith was a non-factor in the two games against Milwaukee, and he is the key to tonight's game. If he plays 32 minutes and gets double figure points and eight rebounds, Butler will be cutting down the nets yet again.
Summit League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN2
Site: Sioux Falls, SD
Oakland (24-9) vs. Oral Roberts (19-14)
If you like high-scoring, fast-paced games, you will definitely clear your schedule to view this one. Oakland is the second best offensive team in the nation, averaging 86 points per game (92 ppg in their last 10 games). The Grizzlies connect on close to 50% of their field goal attempts, and they tend to hit spurts where they score 10 points in two minutes. Oral Roberts averages 81 points per game and has no qualms running with Oakland.
Both teams are riding major winning streaks entering tonight's title game. Oakland has won 17 of their last 18 games, while the Golden Eagles have won 10 in a row. In the regular season, Oakland won both high-scoring games, but both were nail-biters that went down to the wire.
Oakland has a tall and short combination that has done a lot of the damage on opponents. 6-11 center Keith Benson is the best player in the league. Benson averages 17.7 points and 10 rebounds per game. He showed he can do it against the big schools, as he had 17 points and 12 rebounds in a close loss to Michigan State and 26 points and 10 rebounds in a big win at Tennessee.
5-11 guard Reggie Hamilton is a threat to top 20 points any night. He is quick and can get open without help from screens.
Oral Roberts has a star in its own right. Dominique Morrison averages just under 20 points per game, and he doesn't need to heave up 25 shots per game to get those points. Morrison shoots 51.3% from the field, 40% from behind the three-point line, and 78.4% at the foul line. He scored 56 points in the two games against Oakland.
This should be a great game, and we don't believe Oakland is that much of a favorite. ORU has been to the Big Dance four times in the last six years, while Oakland is the defending tournament champion. We expect the winner to top 90 points in this game, and it is too close to call. We say Oakland has about a 54% chance and Oral Roberts a 46% chance of winning.
Sunbelt Conference Championship @ 7PM ET on ESPN2
Site: Hot Springs, AR
North Texas (22-10) vs. U A L R (18-16)
On paper this looks like a mismatch, even though the teams finished one game apart in the regular season. North Texas finished fourth in the West with an 8-8 league mark, while Little Rock finished fifth at 7-9.
North Texas was one of the biggest underachievers this season. The Mean Green returned four starters from their 2010 conference champion team and were expected to win again this year with the best backcourt and one of the best frontcourts in the league. Instead, a 3-9 swoon in the middle of the season placed them out of contention for the West crown. Since that awful slide, UNT has recovered with five consecutive victories.
6-5 senior guard Tristan Thompson has led the way for the Mean Green in the tournament, scoring 80 points in the first three games. He has done a lot of the damage at the foul line, where he is 31-35 in Hot Springs, including an unbelievable 20-20 performance in the win over top-seed Florida Atlantic. Thompson combines a quick move to the basket with a sweet shot from outside. Beefy forward George Odufuwa averages 11 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, and UALR has a tough matchup problem against him.
The Trojans dropped both regular season games to North Texas, mostly because they could not compete under the basket. Their chance to win this game will come down to limiting possessions and trying to win 55-50. They have won three games in the tournament by getting to the foul line and hitting foul shots, while using the clock and taking 30 seconds to shoot on most possessions. UALR's big star in this tournament has been senior guard Solomon Bozeman. Like Thompson, Bozeman has gotten to the free throw line and made the most of his opportunities. He has connected on 37 of 42 attempts including an eye-popping 19 of 22 against Middle Tennessee last night.
We expect a low-possession, low-scoring game. There may be fewer than 100 field goal attempts tonight. North Texas has been there before, while UALR has never won the Sunbelt Conference Tournament. We think that trend will continue, but it wouldn't surprise us if this game stays relatively close for the entire 40 minutes. We could see North Texas winning 60-54.
The Other Tournaments In Action Today
First Round At Higher Seed Home Court
#9 Dayton (19-12) at #8 U Mass (15-14) 9PM ET on CBSC
#12 St. Joseph's (9-21) at #5 George Washington (17-13) 7PM ET on CBSC
#10 LaSalle (14-17) at #7 St. Bonaventure (16-13) 5 PM ET on CBSC
#11 St. Louis (12-18) at #6 Rhode Island (18-12) 7 PM ET no TV
Madison Square Garden in New York City
#16 Depaul (7-23) vs. #9 Georgetown (21-9) 12 Noon ET on ESPN2
#13 Rutgers (14-16) vs. #12 Seton Hall (13-17) Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN2
#15 South Florida (9-22) vs. #10 Villanova (21-10) 7PM ET on ESPNU
#14 Providence (15-16) vs. #11 Marquette (18-13) Approx 9:15 ET on ESPNU
Semifinal Round At Higher Seed Home Court
#3 Weber State (18-11) at #2 Montana (20-9)
#4 Northern Arizona (19-11) at #1 Northern Colorado (19-10)
1st Round At Higher Seed Home Court All Games At 7PM ET
#10 Northern Illinois (9-20) at #7 Bowling Green (13-18)
#11 Eastern Michigan (9-21) at #6 Akron (19-12)
#9 Central Michigan (10-20) at #8 Buffalo (17-12)
#12 Toledo (4-27) at #5 Ohio U (17-14)
Lawrence Joel Coliseum in Winston-Salem, NC
#9 South Carolina State (9-21) vs. #8 Delaware State (9-20) 9PM ET
#10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-21) vs. #7 Florida A&M (12-19) 6:30 PM ET
Note: One more 1st round game Wednesday plus two quarterfinal games
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NCAA Tournament Qualifier #4
Congratulations to the Indiana State Sycamores, the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament champions. ISU defeated Missouri State Sunday by a score of 60-56, giving them eight wins in their last nine games. This Sycamore team is not to be confused with the 1979 National Finalists with some guy named Larry Bird doing a lot of the scoring, but ISU (20-13) has enough talent to pull off an upset in the first round. The last time they were in the Big Dance, ISU upset Oklahoma 70-68 in the first round of the 2001 tourney; they lost 85-68 to Gonzaga in the next round. The Sycamores lost by nine at Notre Dame and by 13 against Purdue, so they can compete against Top 10 teams.
Indiana State joins UNC-Asheville, Belmont, and Morehead State as automatic qualifiers in the NCAA Tournament.
Four More Teams To Enter The Dance Party Tonight
The field of automatic qualifiers doubles from four to eight tonight. Let's take a look at the four conference championships for Monday.
Virginia Commonwealth (23-10) vs. Old Dominion (26-6)
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
In the semifinal round, VCU upset top-seed George Mason 79-63, while Old Dominion ousted Hofstra 77-69. Bubble teams will be cheering hard for ODU because if VCU wins, the CAA could send an extra team to the Dance. George Mason and ODU are virtually assured at-large spots, but VCU will be College Insiders, CBI or NIT-bound if they lose tonight.
ODU has won eight games in a row and 12 of 13. Big forward Frank Hassell has continued to improve and impress down below, and Notre Dame can tell you how well he plays in the postseason; ODU beat the Irish in the first round of last year's NCAA Tournament.
VCU slumped at the end of the regular season, losing four of their final five games (and the one win was in the Bracketbuster) to fall from first to fourth. The Rams won nine games in a row in the middle of the season, including a road victory over their opponent tonight.
Forward Jamie Skeen will be the key man to watch. If he can match or beat Hassell point-for-point and rebound-for-rebound, VCU should pull off the victory. If Hassell wins the battle, then the Monarchs will live up to their preseason billing as best in the league.
If the game comes down to the backcourt, then VCU has the superior tandem there with Bradford Burgess and Joey Rodriguez. If the battle comes down to the rebounding game, ODU will win and maybe win by 10-20 points.
St. Peter's (19-13) vs. Iona (22-10)
7:00 PM EST on ESPN2
St. Peter's pulled off the big upset in this tournament, defeating #1-seed Fairfield 62-48 in yesterday's semifinal round. Iona slaughtered Rider 83-59 to earn their spot in the championship game. The Gaels won their opener by 30 over Siena, so they are the clear-cut favorite tonight.
St. Peter's is an experienced team. The Peacocks' top four players are seniors—Wesley Jenkins, Jeron Belin, Nick Leon, and Ryan Bacon. The quartet averages a combined 45 points a game with all four averaging more than 10 points a game. Their strongest asset is their defensive ability, and teams have a tough time scoring on SPU. Unfortunately, the Peacocks barely top 40% shooting from the field and less than 64% at the foul line. To win tonight, they need to connect on at least 45% of their shots and get some second chance opportunities.
Iona has the look of a champion. The Gaels have won nine games in a row by an average margin of 18.6 points per game. They swept SPU by 18 and 14 in the regular season. Star forward Michael Glover has recorded 17 double-doubles, and the only thing that could prevent him from making it 18 tonight would be his early exit from the game due to the game being a blowout.
As you can surmise, we think Iona will put this game away with a big run about halfway into the opening half after a five to eight-minute period to calm the nerves.
College of Charleston (24-9) vs. Wofford (20-12)
Semifinal Scores
College of Charleston 63 Furman 58
Wofford 86 Western Carolina 72
The top two teams in the league meet for the third time and Charleston won the first two meetings. The Cougars won the battle on the boards in both games and in turn took several more shots. Andrew Goudelock was unstoppable in both games, and Wofford must do something to keep the ball out of his hands tonight and prevent him from scoring his average of 23 points per game to have a chance.
The Terriers are the defending SoCon Tournament champions, and they were the overwhelming pick to repeat as champions this year. They will need a repeat of yesterday's performance to pull off the upset. Wofford connected on 54% of their field goals, 50% of their three-point attempts, and 80% at the foul line. Their big three, Noah Dahlman, Jamar Diggs, and Cameron Rundles, teamed for 52 points and 16 rebounds. Wofford also has excellent depth with three players capable of coming off the bench and scoring points and pulling down rebounds in massive numbers.
Charleston proved to be the better team in the regular season sweep, but we tend to believe this night will belong to Wofford. The Terriers are playing up to their potential, while the Cougars are not.
Saint Mary's (24-7) vs. Gonzaga (23-9)
Saint Mary's 73 Santa Clara 64
Gonzaga 71 San Francisco 67
This is the game of the night. We tend to believe both teams have done enough to punch a ticket to the tournament, but still, this will be a hard-fought rivalry game.
The teams split their regular season series, both winning close games on the other's home court. If you like offense, then this is the game for you. Both teams routinely top 80 points per game, and both have enjoyed many nights where they shot in excess of 50% from the field.
Gonzaga has won eight games in a row, and the Bulldogs utilize great depth to wear down opponents. They can go 10-deep with very little drop in talent, as no player averages over 14 points per game, and only one tops six rebounds per game.
SMC relies on a trio of talented players in Mickey McConnell, Rob Jones, and Matthew Dellavedova. They team up to average 43.3 points per game. McConnell is one of the best outside shooters in the nation, and he is virtually automatic at the charity stripe.
This game is a tossup in the truest since, and we expect it to go down to the final minute for the third time this season. They could not settle it in 40 minutes the last time they faced off, so this has to be considered a 50-50 game. We will go with Gonzaga's 50% chance tonight.
Continuing Tournaments
Boston U. 55 Hartford 49
Stony Brook 69 Vermont 47
Championship Game—Saturday, March 12@ 12 Noon on ESPN2
Stony Brook (15-16) at Boston U (20-13)
Championship Game—Wednesday, March 9 @ 7PM on ESPN2
Robert Morris (18-13) at Long Island (26-5)
Lafayette 73 American 71 2ot
Bucknell 66 Lehigh 64
Championship Game—Friday, March 11 @ 4:45 PM on ESPN2
Lafayette (13-18) at Bucknell (24-8)
South Dakota State 85 I P F W 75
I U P U I 79 Missouri-KC 55
Semifinal Round—Monday, March 7 @ Sioux Falls, SD
Oakland (23-9) vs. South Dakota State (19-11) @ 7:00 PM EST
Oral Roberts (18-14) vs. I U P U I (19-13) @ 9:30 PM EST
Sunbelt Conference
Western Kentucky 81 Louisiana-Lafayette 76
North Texas 78 Florida Atlantic 64
Middle Tennessee 73 Florida International 38
U A L R 59 Arkansas State 52
Semifinal Round—Monday, March 7 @ Hot Springs, AR
Western Kentucky (16-15) vs. North Texas (21-10) @ 7:00 PM EST
Middle Tennessee (16-15) vs. U A L R (17-16) @ 9:30 PM EST
Coming Tomorrow: The Big Sky Conference and Horizon League Tournament Championships are decided, and four more conference tournaments begin. Check back Tuesday afternoon for more coverage.
Congratulations To Three Champions
Three teams have punched their tickets to the Big Dance.
UNC-Asheville 60 Coastal Carolina 47
UNC-Asheville 19-13
Belmont 87 North Florida 46
Belmont 30-4
Morehead State 80 Tennessee Tech 73
Morehead State 24-9
Scores From Other Conference Tournaments
Vermont 57 Binghamton 46
Stony Brook 67 Albany 61
Boston U 69 New Hampshire 60
Hartford 66 Maine 63
Sunday, March 6 Semifinal Round
Vermont 23-7 vs. Stony Brook 14-16
Boston U. 19-13 vs. Hartford 11-19
Weber State 79 Eastern Washington 70
Northern Arizona 65 Montana State 62
Tuesday, March 8 Semifinal Round
Montana 20-9 vs. Weber State 18-11
Northern Colorado 19-10 vs. Northern Arizona 19-11
George Mason 68 Georgia State 45
Virginia Commonwealth 62 Drexel 60
Old Dominion 59 Delaware 50
Hofstra 72 William & Mary 56
George Mason 26-5 vs. Virginia Commonwealth 22-10
Old Dominion 25-6 vs. Hofstra 21-10
Butler 76 Cleveland State 68
Milwaukee 70 Valparaiso 63
Tuesday, March 8 Championship Game
Butler 22-9 vs. Milwaukee 19-12
Fairfield 55 Marist 31
St. Peter's 70 Loyola (MD) 60
Rider 79 Canisius 64
Iona 94 Siena 64
Fairfield 24-6 vs. St. Peter's 18-13
Rider 23-9 vs. Iona 21-10
Missouri State 60 Creighton 50
Indiana State 61 Wichita State 54
Sunday, March 6 Championship Game
Missouri State 25-7 vs. Indiana State 19-13
Western Carolina 77 UNC-Greensboro 66
Wofford 67 Appalachian State 56
Furman 61 Chattanooga 52
College of Charleston 78 Elon 60
Western Carolina 18-14 vs. Wofford 19-12
Furman 22-9 vs. College of Charleston 23-9
Oakland 82 Southern Utah 66
Oral Roberts 72 North Dakota State 65
Sunday, March 6 Quarterfinal Round Continues
I P F W 18-11 vs. South Dakota State 18-11
I U P U I 18-13 vs. Missouri-Kansas City 16-13
Western Kentucky 66 Louisiana-Monroe 50
North Texas 83 Troy 69
Florida Int'l 53 Denver 49
U A L R 82 South Alabama 68
Sunday, March 6 Quarterfinal Round
Louisiana-Lafayette 14-14 vs. Western Kentucky 15-15
Florida Atlantic 21-9 vs. North Texas 20-10
Middle Tennessee 15-15 vs. Florida Int'l 11-18
Arkansas State 17-14 vs. U A L R 16-16
Santa Clara 76 Loyola Marymount 68
San Francisco 76 Pepperdine 59
St. Mary's 23-7 vs. Santa Clara 19-13
Gonzaga 22-9 vs. San Francisco 17-13
NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 5 Update 1
Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Albany, America East, American, Arch Madness, Atlantic Sun, basketball, Belmont, Big South, Boston, Bucknell, Butler, Central Connecticut, Chattanooga, Cleveland State, Coastal Carolina, college, College of Charleston, Conference, Creighton, Denver, East Tennessee, Fairfield, Florida Atlantic, Furman, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Horizon, Indiana State, IPFW, IUPUI, Jacksonville, Lafayette, League, Liberty, Lipscomb, Long Island, Louisiana Lafayette, MAAC, Maine, Mercer, Middle Tennessee, Milwaukee, Missouri State, Missouri Valley, Morehead State, Murray State, NCAA, northeast, Northern Iowa, Oakland, Ohio Valley, Oral Roberts, OVC, Patriot, Quinnipiac, robert morris, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Southern Conference, St. Mary's, Summit League, Sunbelt Conference, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, tournament, UNC-Asheville, UNCA, Valparaiso, Vermont, VMI, West Coast Conference, Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, Wichita State, Wofford — piratings @ 10:51 pm
Two new conference tournaments begin today (Saturday), but more importantly the first three spots in the Big Dance Card will be filled.
Summit League Tournament
Tournament Site: Sioux Falls, SD
Saturday, March 5: Quarterfinal Round
G 1: #1 Oakland vs. #8 Southern Utah 7PM
G 2: #2 Oral Roberts vs. #7 North Dakota State 9:30 PM
Sunday, March 6: Quarterfinal Round
G 3 #4 I P F W vs. #5 North Dakota State 7 PM
G 4 #3 I U P U I vs. #6 Missouri-Kansas City 9:30 PM
Monday, March 7: Semifinal Round
G 5: G 1 Winner vs. G 3 Winner 7 PM
G 6: G 2 Winner vs. G 4 Winner 9:30 PM
Tuesday, March 8: Championship Game at 9PM on ESPN2
G 5 Winner vs. G 6 Winner
Hot Team: Oral Roberts has won eight consecutive games by an average margin of 12.6 points per game. This includes a key win over IUPUI that clinched the second seed.
Oakland enters the tournament riding a five-game winning streak. The Golden Grizzlies won 15 of their final 16 regular season games.
Not Hot: Missouri-Kansas City lost its last three games, but they were to three of the top four teams in the league.
Team Nobody Wants To Play: South Dakota State is only one hour from Sioux Falls, and the Jackrabbits will fill the arena. Oakland would much rather play four-seed I P F W in the semifinals. If SDSU wins their quarterfinal game, look for them to give Oakland fits in a semifinal match.
Oakland as Favorite: The Golden Grizzlies finished 17-1 in league play, so they must be considered solid favorites. Their lone league loss came at IUPUI, and in their 18 conference games they had a +14.2 scoring margin.
Our Pick: We will stick with the favorite to win here, even though we believe they will struggle to win their semifinal and final game.
Sunbelt Conference Tournament
Tournament Site: Hot Springs, AR (using Summit Arena and Convention Center Court)
Saturday, March 5: Opening Round
G 1: #3E Western Kentucky vs. #6W Louisiana-Monroe 7:45 PM (Convention Center)
G 2: #4W North Texas vs. #5E Troy 7:30 PM (Summit Arena)
G 3: #3W Denver vs. #6E Florida International 9:45 PM (Summit Arena)
G 4: #4E South Alabama vs. #5W U A L R 10PM (Convention Center)
G 5: G 1 Winner vs. #2W Louisiana-Lafayette 7:30 PM (Summit Arena)
G 6: G 2 Winner vs. #1E Florida Atlantic 7:45 PM (Convention Center)
G 7: G 3 Winner vs. #2E Middle Tennessee 10 PM (Convention Center)
G 8: G 4 Winner vs. #1W Arkansas State 9:45 PM (Summit Arena)
Monday, March 7: Semifinal Round (Summit Arena)
G 9: G 5 Winner vs. G 6 Winner 7PM
G10: G 7 Winner vs. G 8 Winner 9:30 PM
Tuesday, March 8: Championship Game (Summit Arena)
G11: G 9 Winner vs. G 10 Winner at 7PM on ESPN2
Hot Team: Louisiana-Lafayette has won 11 consecutive games, but seven of those wins were by five points or less or in overtime. The Ragin' Cajuns defeated both division winners in that stretch
Not Hot: Denver dropped from first to third when they lost their last three games and six of their final eight. The Pioneers had won eight consecutive games in midseason, but they lost their offensive touch down the stretch.
Team That Nobody Wants To Play: After starting conference play 0-4, Western Kentucky righted the ship and won eight of their last 12 conference games. The Hilltoppers greatly underachieved, and with two studs in Steffphon Pettigrew and Sergio Kerusch, WKU can beat anybody in the SBC.
Florida Atlantic As Favorite: The Owls started 8-0 in league play before faltering a bit down the stretch. We do not feel strongly that FAU can win three games in three days. In fact, we believe they will not even be around for the championship game.
Our Pick: When UL-Lafayette takes on Western Kentucky in the quarterfinal round, we believe the winner of that game will upset FAU in the semifinal round and go on to win the league's lone bid to the Dance.
The First Three Bids Go Out Today
The league championship games are on tap for Saturday. Let's look at the scores from Friday with the schedule for the three conference championship games.
Big South Conference— 4:00 PM on ESPN2
#3 UNC-Asheville (18-13) at #1 Coastal Carolina (28-4)
UNCA beat Charleston Southern 72-63 and High Point 62-45. Coastal Carolina beat Gardner-Webb 83-72 and VMI 89-81
Atlantic Sun Conference—6:00 PM on ESPN2
Site: Macon, GA
#1 Belmont (29-4) vs. #6 North Florida (15-18)
Belmont defeated Kennesaw State 72-57 and Mercer 80-72. North Florida defeated Jacksonville 68-64 and East Tennessee 59-55
Ohio Valley Conference—8:00 PM on ESPN2
Site: Nashville
#2 Morehead State (23-9) vs. #4 Tennessee Tech (20-11)
Morehead State beat Austin Peay 68-49. Tennessee Tech beat UT-Martin 83-59 and Murray State 64-59.
#9 Georgia State 58 #8 UNC-Wilmington 52
#5 Drexel 75 #12 Towson 69
#7 Delaware 60 #10 Northeastern 58
#11 William & Mary 72 #6 James Madison 68
Quarterfinal Round—Saturday
#1 George Mason vs. #9 Georgia State
#4 Virginia Commonwealth vs. #5 Drexel
#2 Old Dominion vs. #7 Delaware
#3 Hofstra vs. #11 William & Mary
#3 Cleveland State 73 #6 Wright State 59
#4 Valparaiso 88 #5 Detroit 78
Semifinal Round—Saturday
#1 Milwaukee vs. #4 Valparaiso
#2 Butler vs. #3 Cleveland State
M A A C
#9 Marist 73 #8 Niagara 61
#7 Siena 68 #10 Manhattan 66 OT
#1 Fairfield vs. #9 Marist
#4 St. Peter's vs. #5 Loyola (MD)
#3 Rider vs. #6 Canisius
#2 Iona vs. #7 Siena
#1 Missouri State 58 #8 Southern Illinois 56
#5 Creighton 60 #4 Northern Iowa 57
#2 Wichita State 70 #10 Bradley 56
#3 Indiana State 52 #6 Evansville 50
#1 Missouri State vs. #5 Creighton
#2 Wichita State vs. #3 Indiana State
#5N UNC-Greensboro 71 #4S Davidson 64
#3N Appalachian State 65 #6S Georgia Southern 57
#3S Furman 61 #6N Samford 48
#4N Elon 85 #5S Citadel 74
#1N Western Carolina vs. #5N UNC-Greensboro
#2S Wofford vs. #3N Appalachian State
#2N Chattanooga vs. #3S Furman
#1S College of Charleston vs. #4N Elon
#8 Loyola Marymount 72 #5 Portland 68
#6 Pepperdine 84 #7 San Diego 81
#4 Santa Clara vs. #8 Loyola Marymount
#3 San Francisco vs. #6 Pepperdine
Ivy League Results (Princeton and Harvard)
Harvard 79 Penn 64
Princeton 77 Dartmouth 55
Princeton is now 11-1. Harvard is now 11-2. The two teams square off in Cambridge tonight. If Princeton wins, the Tigers clinch the Ivy League title. If Harvard wins, then Princeton must win at Penn Tuesday night to force a playoff for the Ivy League title.
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