text:
Refunds uncertain as .nxt says sorry for cancelation
Kevin Murphy, August 24, 2012, Domain Services
It's not yet clear whether people who paid for tickets for the .nxt conference will get full refunds.
In an apologetic email sent to attendees last night, organizer Kieren McCarthy said that .nxt is "trying to recoup" money already paid to the conference venue. The email states in part:
For a number of reasons – the most significant being the fact that the ICANN process is still in flux – we were not able to get the number of attendees or sponsors needed.
Having communicated with a large number of people that the conference was directly aimed at, the conclusion would appear to be: right idea, wrong time. The conference was designed as a meeting place for a new industry to meet and interact. It is now clear that that effort was premature.
Unfortunately that does not resolve the fact that you are currently out of pocket, whether through a conference ticket, hotel room or flight to London.
.Nxt is currently trying to recoup money we have paid to the hotel venue so we are in a position to reimburse at least some of those costs. We will keep in touch with any developments.
Fewer than 100 people were registered for the $950-a-ticket three-day event, .nxt said. The first two conferences, held in San Francisco last year, attracted closer to double that number.
The company plans to offer some of its planned sessions online instead, according to the email and a statement on the conference web site.
McCarthy is currently calling would-be attendees to explain the situation. Many have been understanding, according to the email.
Some attendees have told us they want full refunds for their tickets and hotel rooms, when the hotel was booked via .nxt. Recouping money spent on airfare is a different matter, of course.
The conference, which also left some attendees out of pocket when it was postponed in June, is unlikely to return.
Confirmed: .nxt conference canceled
The .nxt conference on new gTLDs has indeed been canceled, according to organizer Kieren McCarthy.
The show was expected to run next week, August 29-31, in London, following two successful events in San Francisco last year.
It was originally expected to run in June, but was postponed in May due to ICANN-related program delays.
I had planned to hold off posting the news until I had the full details, but I've received several emails this morning from people wondering what was going on so I thought I'd share what I know.
McCarthy is currently phoning attendees individually to explain the situation, so if you're already a paid-up delegate I expect you'll be getting a call soon. An announcement is expected later today.
ARI Registry Services tweeted this morning that .nxt is not offering refunds, but I cannot confirm that at this time.
More when we get it…
June .nxt conference canceled
Kevin Murphy, May 23, 2012, Domain Services
The .nxt conference on new generic top-level domains, planned for London next month, has been postponed until later this year, the organizers have announced.
.nxt CEO Kieren McCarthy blamed the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the new gTLD program timetable following ICANN's six-week TLD Application System outage.
McCarthy wrote on the .nxt web site:
Our main goal for this conference is to give a comprehensive overview of the new gTLD process, including: providing an understanding of this new market; assisting applicants in moving forward; learning lessons from the past; and giving everyone a significant new industry an opportunity to meet, debate and network. We just don't feel this is going to be possible for the 20-22 June timeframe.
We gave serious consideration to running the conference despite the lack of information and tight timeline but decided in the end it would be better for everyone to hold a conference that was in a position to achieve its aims.
The conference had already signed up almost twice the number of attendees than the previous two San Francisco-based events (which were in the 150-200 range), according to McCarthy.
Tickets for the June event will be honored for the rescheduled .nxt, which is likely to happen in the late third or early fourth quarter, he said.
People who booked hotels through official channels will get a full refund, but those who made their own arrangements will have to make their own cancellations.
.nxt new gTLD conference open for registration
Kevin Murphy, March 28, 2012, Domain Registries
The third .nxt conference on new generic top-level domains opened for early bird registrations today.
Having appeared twice in San Francisco, this time it's my home town of London's turn to host the event.
Organizer Kieren McCarthy is hoping to attract an international audience passing through London on their way to the ICANN 44 public meeting in Prague, Czech Republic.
The conference will be held at the Park Plaza Victoria in central London on June 20 to 22, ending just before the first day of meetings in Prague.
The three-track agenda can be found here.
I attended the first two .nxts in person and remotely and I've found that McCarthy is pretty good at lining up an excellent range of compelling speakers and panelists.
The main drawback some have found is that many of the attendees are likely to be the same faces you'll see at ICANN meetings.
However, with this being the first .nxt to happen after April 12 – when hundreds of new companies have filed their applications and committed to enter the domain name industry – there very well might be a broader range of delegates at the London show.
Early bird pricing, available before April 12, starts at £399 ($632) plus 20% tax for the full three days. It then goes up to £599 ($949) plus tax. Day passes are also available.
You can take advantage of the discounted pricing by registering here.
IFFOR hires McCarthy to handle .xxx outreach
Kevin Murphy, October 10, 2011, Domain Registries
Kieren McCarthy, CEO of the .nxt new top-level domains conference, has reportedly joined the International Foundation For Online Responsibility to manage policy communications.
IFFOR is the sponsoring organization for ICM Registry's new gTLD, responsible for setting the policies that will govern .xxx domain names.
ICM's opponents in the Free Speech Coalition fear IFFOR, claiming it will be both toothless in the light of ICM's "veto power" over policies (which ICM disputes) and dangerous to .xxx domain holders.
As well as outreach, McCarthy will be tasked with "developing the tools through which Internet community members and IFFOR Policy Council members can reach consensus positions", according to Xbiz.
He has the right background. He's the former general manager for public participation at ICANN, and lately one of its fiercest critics. More recently, he's also done some consulting work for ICM.
Hopefully one of his first actions at IFFOR will be to add DI to the press release mailing list, so I don't have to source Xbiz the next time the organization has news to report.
Should new gTLDs be delayed?
Kevin Murphy, August 31, 2011, Domain Policy
Is the world ready for the new generic top-level domains program? Is ICANN ready?
It's been well over two months since ICANN approved its new gTLD program, and the initial sense of excitement and purpose in the industry seems to have given way to virtual silence from ICANN and a profound lack of audible enthusiasm from the internet at large.
What's going on with the program? Where's the final Applicant Guidebook? Who are the experts ICANN is going to hire to actually decide which applications succeed or fail?
Is four months really sufficient time to put the world on notice that new gTLDs are coming and to give everybody enough opportunity to prepare?
Is anybody outside the industry even paying attention?
Read this quote (with my emphasis) from Friday's wrap-up session at the .nxt conference in San Francisco and see if you can guess whose mouth it came out of.
My takeaways, if I can run through them quickly…
…a sense of relief that this program is finally underway as of June 20 has suddenly now turned into a worry. There's a whole lot of people who can't believe it's happening, and there's a sense of worry that it's all going to happen too fast. So that's quite interesting. There's a hell of a lot that has to be done between now and launch.
Some things are not yet done… We haven't got the information about the [Trademark] Clearinghouse yet, we don't know what the [Governmental Advisory Committee] processes are going to be, and we actually have to design registry systems and explain those two to customers and show how they are going to fit together and we can't. So there's a problem there about the rush.
You may be thinking that those are the words of some naysayer in a stuffed shirt – a hater from the trademark lobby or the advertising industry who wants to put the stoppers on new gTLDs.
Actually, that's the opinion of Peter Dengate Thrush, who was chairman of the ICANN board of directors when it voted to approve the program, despite concerns that it wasn't ready yet, in June.
Dengate Thrush is now of course executive chairman of Minds + Machines, which is in the position of actually having to deal with the program in its incomplete state.
His words were, I believe, offered up as an analysis of the mood of the conference, rather than some kind of mea culpa, if you were wondering about the context or tone.
Nevertheless, he had a point.
Here are some of things that don't seem to have been finalized yet:
The Applicant Guidebook
Incredibly, the most recent version of the application rulebook posted on the ICANN web site dates from May. It's still essentially still an almost-done draft document.
ICANN's board voted in June to amend the Applicant Guidebook before the first round of applications opens.
So, where is it? Where's the final Guidebook?
Who's going to sign a check investing in new gTLDs when the rules are still open to change?
Still minding the GAC
How, precisely, will the Governmental Advisory Committee decide whether to intervene to thwart a gTLD application on public policy grounds?
ICANN has agreed to let the GAC make up its own rules governing how it reaches consensus before it objects to applications, but so far it has not said what those rules are going to be.
If you think you might apply for a potentially controversial gTLD string – or even if you don't – you still don't have enough information today to make a fully informed risk analysis.
Your best strategy right now might be to ensure that your string complies with Sharia, or to pay off a bunch of government officials to ensure they fight your corner.
Where are the experts?
ICANN has not yet named the company or individuals who have been or will be hired to process the hundreds of gTLD applications that are likely to be received next year.
As Dengate Thrush noted, it also hasn't appointed a Trademark Clearinghouse, which is a critical component of two mandatory new gTLD rights protection mechanisms.
Currently, it's hard to say for certain what integration between registries and the Clearinghouse will entail financially or technologically.
That may not be an enormous problem, but it could make writing an application slightly trickier.
Watching the watchmen
ICANN is in receipt of letters from competition authorities in the US and European Union, telling it in fairly blunt terms that its decision to allow registries and registrars to integrate is Bad Policy.
The rules that separate registrars like Go Daddy from registries such as VeriSign have been good for consumers, they say, and should be kept in place under the new gTLD regime.
ICANN, also in its June 20 vote, has already agreed to talk to these authorities about possibly scaling back the proposed liberalization of the vertical integration rules.
But if this is already happening, it's happening behind closed doors, because we've not heard a peep about it from ICANN or the two governments since June.
If this situation escalates when everybody gets back from vacation, I will not be surprised.
Where's the outreach?
ICANN has promised a four-month communications campaign before the start of the first round of applications. That means it has to kick off by September 12, just two weeks from now.
This campaign actually began at the press conference about half an hour after the June 20 board vote, ICANN president Rod Beckstrom said at the time, but apart from a couple of plaintive cries for help there's been precious little visible outreach since then.
Director Bertrand de La Chapelle evidently gave Beckstrom a hard time about this during a board meeting a month ago, according to the minutes.
A new ICANN web site devoted to new gTLDs is expected to launch next month, and I understand that staff including Beckstrom will hit the road for a world tour around the same time.
But given the recent mock outrage from ad industry shills such as the Association of National Advertisers, it's arguably a little late for ICANN to start to worry about framing the issue.
Most people reading about new gTLDs in the press the last few weeks probably came away thinking new gTLDs are nothing but a money grab by registries and cybersquatters/domainers.
(It is that, of course, but it's lots of other nicer things too.)
From a public relations perspective, ICANN will be starting on the back foot. Its outreach efforts may turn out to be not be so much about educating the world about its program but re-educating it.
Oh, and it only has $750,000 to pull off this feat.
As a very wise man said at .nxt on Friday: "The size and scale of that [budget] doesn't really match up to the problem it's trying to address."
(Yeah, that was Dengate Thrush again)
Welcome to the cheap seats
ICANN has committed $2 million from reserves to a mechanism whereby needy applicants from developing nations will be able to get a discount (TBC) on their application fees.
That mechanism does not yet exist. Such applicants are today at a disadvantage compared to their wealthier competitors when it comes to planning applications and raising funds.
A volunteer working group known as JAS has been working out the details, meeting by phone two or three times a week, but reaching consensus seems to have been a very tough slog.
Policies developed from the bottom up have a convoluted chain of custody before they get approved. A deadline missed by a day or two can delay the ICANN rubber stamp by weeks.
The way things look today, the JAS applicant support policy is going to be cutting it extremely fine if it wants to make it before the ICANN board's October meeting in Dakar.
Wither round two?
Perhaps the most intractable problem underlying the whole program is the absence of a launch date for the second-round application window.
Speakers at the .nxt conference last week reckoned lawsuits over individual contested gTLDs are inevitable, and that they could delay the second round until as late as 2017, if it happens at all.
It's in that context that large companies, already nervous about entering into a new, unmeasurable, unproven marketing paradigm, are being asked to commit potentially millions to new gTLDs today.
It's arguably like being asked, in 1991, to pay $500,000 for sex.com, with no idea whether this newfangled "hypertext" thing is going to take off.
Sounds like a great deal today, but back then it would have sounded like a 419 scam.
As Yahoo lawyer J Scott Evans said at .nxt, many companies feel they have "a gun to their heads".
It's hardly surprising some of them have persuaded their trade groups to lobby against the program, threatening to bring their pocket Congressmen down on ICANN's head and/or file a lawsuit or two.
Which brings me to my headline
Which brings me to my headline. Would another delay be good for the new gTLD program?
If the ANA were to sic its lawyers on ICANN tomorrow, would a temporary restraining order that delayed the program by a few month actually be healthy for it in the longer term?
A great many people and organizations that could make valuable contributions to the domain name industry will not have heard about new gTLDs before June 20.
A delay before January could give ICANN and its community a bit more time to smooth away the rough edges of the program and to address the issues that have not yet been resolved.
It could give potential applicants from outside the established community more time to decide whether to engage with the program, more time to raise funds or secure budgets, and more time to develop their new gTLD application strategies.
I'm referring here not only to large corporations with lengthy budgeting cycles, but also to entrepreneurs with cool ideas and meager resources that perhaps need more time to be able to get on board.
Could a delay also increase the proportion of applicants from outside Europe and North America, and the proportion of IDN gTLD applicants who truly understand their markets?
Bluntly, would a short delay in the launch, whether it came about as a result of legal action or not, make round one of the ICANN new gTLD program less of a clusterfuck?
Yeah, I'm playing Devil's Advocate here
The best quote I heard during my remote participation in the .nxt conference last week was offered up by Brian Larson from DotMLS as "Larson's Corollary to Newton's Third Law":
Any discussion about what the post-new-gTLD world is going to look like is inherently speculative… For any argument about the post-new-gTLD world there is an equally plausible but opposite argument.
For the avoidance of doubt, if there was any doubt in your mind, that maxim certainly applies to the opinions expressed in this article. I could just as easily write 2,000 words arguing for the opposing view.
Most new gTLDs will fail
Kevin Murphy, August 26, 2011, Domain Registries
We're going to see hundreds of new gTLDs over the coming years, but we're also going to see potentially hundreds of failures.
That's the view being espoused by some of the biggest cheerleaders of ICANN's new generic top-level domains program, including its former chairman, at the .nxt conference this week.
During the opening session on Wednesday, a panel of experts was asked to imagine what the domain name industry might look like in 2017, five years after the first new gTLDs go live.
"My assumption is that many TLDs will have completely failed to live up to their promoters' hype," said Minds + Machines executive chairman Peter Dengate Thrush, whose last action as ICANN chair was pushing through approval of the program. "But on the other hand many of them, and I hope a majority of them, will be thriving."
Anyone expecting to build a business on defensive registrations better think again, panelists said.
"Many ill-conceived generic-term TLDs will have failed by that point, especially those generic term TLDs that are taking comfort in the .xxx Sunrise Part B revenue model," said Paul McGrady of the law firm Greenberg Traurig.
"There's definitely going to be burnout in the brand-owner community, so don't expect the brand owners to show up to to fuel that," he said.
Others, such as Tucows CEO Elliot Noss, went further.
"I think there'll be more failures than successes and I'm not fussed by that," said Noss. "For the users in the namespace, it's not like they're left high and dry."
He compared failing gTLDs to the old Angelfire and Geocities homepage services that were quite popular in the late 1990s, but which fizzled when the cost of domains and hosting came down.
But while the disappearance of an entire gTLD would take all of its customers with it, a la Geocities, that's unlikely to happen, panelists acknowledged.
ICANN's program requires applicants to post a bond covering three years of operations, and it will also select a registry provider to act as an emergency manager if a gTLD manager fails.
When gTLD businesses fail, and they will, they're designed to fail gracefully.
In addition, taking on an extra gTLD after its previous owner goes out of business would be little burden to an established registry provider — once the transition work was done, a new string would be a extra renewal revenue stream with possibly little additional overhead.
Watch the .nxt conference live online
The .nxt conference on new top-level domains kicks off in San Francisco later today, but fear not if you were unable to make it in person – much of the content will be streamed live online.
Roughly half of the three-day meeting's sessions will be made available live, and it appears that the whole lot will be available on demand for the next three months.
If the conference is as informative as the first one, which took place in February, the $95 fee .nxt is charging to access the streams seems like a pretty good deal.
It's no substitute for being there in person – much of the value in these things lies in the networking opportunities – but if new gTLDs are likely to effect your business you'd be crazy not to check it out.
More details here.
ICANN fights government gTLD power grab
Kevin Murphy, July 22, 2011, Domain Policy
ICANN has opposed a US move to grant governments veto power over controversial new top-level domain applications.
Cutting to the very heart of Obama administration internet governance policy, ICANN has told the National Telecommunications and Information Administration that its recent proposals would "undermine the very principle of the multi-stakeholder model".
The stern words came in ICANN's response to the NTIA's publication of revisions to the IANA contract, the contract that allows ICANN to retain its powers over the domain name system root.
The NTIA's Further Notice Of Inquiry contained proposed amendments to the contract, including this:
For delegation requests for new generic TLDS (gTLDs), the Contractor [ICANN] shall include documentation to demonstrate how the proposed string has received consensus support from relevant stakeholders and is supported by the global public interest.
This was widely interpreted as a US attempt to avoid a repeat of the .xxx scandal, when ICANN approved the porn gTLD despite the unease voiced by its Governmental Advisory Committee.
As I noted in June, it sounds a lot like code for "if the GAC objects, you must reject", which runs the risk of granting veto powers to the GAC's already opaque consensus-making process.
In his response to the FNOI (pdf), ICANN chief Rod Beckstrom says that the NTIA's proposal would "replace" the "intensive multi-stakeholder deliberation" that created the newly approved Applicant Guidebook.
He also pointed out the logical inconsistency of asking IANA to remain policy-neutral in one part of the proposed contract, and asking it to make serious policy decisions in another:
The IANA functions contract should not be used to rewrite the policy and implementation process adopted through the bottom-up decision-making process. Not only would this undermine the very principle of the multi-stakeholder model, it would be inconsistent with the objective of more clearly distinguishing policy development from operational implementation by the IANA functions operator.
NTIA head Larry Strickling has been pounding the "multistakeholderism" drum loudly of late, most recently in a speech in Washington and in an interview with Kieren McCarthy of .nxt.
In the .nxt interview, Strickling was quite clear that he believes ICANN should give extra authority to governments when it comes to approving controversial strings.
The NTIA concern – shared by other government entities including the European Commission – is that controversial strings could lead to national blocking and potentially internet fragmentation.
While Strickling declined to comment on the specific provisions of the IANA contract, he did tell .nxt:
If the GAC as a consensus view can't support a string then my view is that the ICANN Board should not approve the string as to do so in effect legitimizes or sanctions that governments should be blocking at the root zone level. And I think that is bad for the Internet.
Where you're dealing with sensitive strings, where you've engaged the sovereignty of nations, I think it is appropriate to tip the hat a little bit more to governments and listen to what they say. On technical issues it wouldn't be appropriate but on this particular one, you've got to listen a little bit more to governments.
He also indicated that the US would not necessarily stand up for its principles if confronted by substantial objections to a string from other governments:
So we would be influenced – I can't say it would be dispositive – if a large number of countries have a problem with a particular string, even if it was one that might not be objectionable to the United States government.
And that is out of interest of protecting the Internet's root from widespread blocking at the top-level by lots of governments.
Does this mean that the US could agree to a consensus GAC objection to a .gay gTLD? A .porn? A .freespeech? It certainly sounds like it.
New TLDs conference calls for speakers
Kevin Murphy, March 7, 2011, Domain Registries
The newdomains.org conference on new top-level domains, scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Munich, has put out a call for speakers.
Here's the catch: if you're interested, you might need an audition tape. The organizers want to see a short YouTube clip of your presenting skills in action before they consider your pitch.
Ram Mohan, CTO of Afilias, and Tim Schumacher, CEO of Sedo, are both already named on the draft agenda, but there are still plenty of open spots, including the first-day keynote.
Franz Josef Pschierer, IT commissioner of the Bavarian state government, will keynote day two.
The conference is being organized by the registrar United Domains, part of the same family of domain name companies as Sedo and 1&1 Internet.
While newdomains.org will take place in Germany, possibly the biggest market for new TLDs outside of the US, all the sessions will be conducted exclusively in English.
The conference currently looks like it's shaping up along the same lines as the .nxt conference last month, with sessions on brand protection, community building, marketing and so on.
One notable difference is the addition of coached "workshops" as well as panel discussions.
Extracurricular activities include a tram ride around the city and a visit to the Hippodrom tent at Oktoberfest, the world-famous beer-drinking festival.
Needless to say, I shall be in attendance. For the trams, obviously.


`Now shalle I seye the of that other feste, whiche is holden more solempne than these, for as moche as the Souerayne of Soothfastnes fro the hyhe place of mydday descendyd in this Mayden, as Gabryel brought hyr tydynge, for he found in all the Zodyack no sygne so worthy as the signe of Virgo, that is cleped the Mayden, where it plesid the sonne soo hyely to abyden, that he abode therynne more than thyrty dayes, whiche was woned to be the space of abydynge of the sone within euery sygne.
`But he abode in the Vyrgyne fully nyne monethes, and so entred in to the signe of Gemini, that ben cleped Twynnes or Doubles. So was he newe clothed and couered with the cloude of humanyte abouen vpon his Godhede, soo was he for mannes loue made very man hym seluen. And yssuyng fro the Vyrgyne ful pryuely, that Nature hir seluen couthe it nought espye, ryght as the yonge spouse yssueth fro his chambre, so is he cleped Gemine gigas substancie114, a geaunt or champyon of double substaunce, myghty ynowe in Godhede, and worthy in his manheede for to taken this batayle for mannes saluacion.
`What [101r] throwest thou, by thy feythe, what tyme that this sonne in this wise was descended, what myrthe was in Heuen. No doute, that full besyly the Angels flewen aboute, syngynge in Heuene and in Erthe. There is no spiere in Heuen, that he ne tasted hony swete ioye. This had wel apperceyued the creatures that lyen in the bordure of Helle, and gonne for to synge and maken melodye. Soo is this feste euery yere sumed in mynde of the maryage that was made bytwene God and man. There is none Angel, no Seynt, whiche that is in Heuene, but he dothe his besynesse to synge and solempnyse this feste with alle the myghte and ioye that he can.
`The false Sathanas that day must goo hyden hym in his hote nest, for yf he herd of this myrthe, he must dye for angre and for malyce.
`At this day of maryage were cryed grete ioustes115 bynethen in the Erthely countre, soo that alle vertues were redy at the feste, armed, on horsebak, arayed for to iuste. There come pryke forthe sporles Humylyte, and ranne ageyne Pryde, and smartely he vnhorsed hym and bare hym to the erthe. And Charyte rood at Enuy with his armes sprad, and caught hym by the neck, and threwe hym to the ground. Anone come ryde Dylygence with an huge cours, and smote Slouthe soo sore, that he was waked of his sleep for many dayes after. Pacyence come pryckyng with a sobre chere, and hitte Ire in the helme, that it flewe a feld. Liberalite, of wonder large stature vpon a fayre courcyer, brydeled with gold, mete with Auaryce, and smote hym in the brest, that he spette blood many dayes after. And fayne he was to opene his coufre or that he left hym. And Abstynence the poure semyd soo feble, that he ne myght vnnethe sytte on horsback. Yet shewed he suche courage, that he cast downe Glotonye, and slowe hym for euer. Chastyte the shamfast smote soo Lechery, that he neuer throfe, ne neuer shalle herafter. Seynt Powle set vp the pryce, and told sykerly that who soo bare hym best, sholde haue a coroune for his mede.


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ADD TO YOUR REGIMEN– Vya Naturals Vitamin C Serum can easily be incorporated in your daily skincare routine. This powerful breakout and anti-aging treatment can be used under a cream, lotion or moisturizer.
When I started using the Vitamin C serum, I had two skin issues: chicken bumps on my cheeks that I got during my wedding, and severely tanned skin. I started using the Vitamin C from the night we came back home. It comes in a dark glass bottle to protect it from sunlight and with a dropper that dispenses the product in right amount. I started using 2-3 drops of the serum every night. The box says you can use it twice a day, but I'm cursed with a hyper-sensitive skin and didn't want to risk it. The first morning after using the serum, I woke up to a small pimple on my cheeks, but my tan was lighter, just overnight. I continued using the serum even though I kept getting one small pimple every night, and my tan kept getting lighter and lighter. After a week of continuous usage, with a still but less tanned skin and a few pimples, I stopped. My skin wasn't reacting very well to the serum. I gave my skin a rest for a week, and then a week later, gave the serum another chance, sometimes every night, sometimes alternate nights (the way my sister now uses her Klairs Vitamin C). Turned out, my skin behaved way better when used alternate nights, the tan kept fading and no sign of new pimples. After using it on alternate nights for some time, I went back using it every night. Seemed like, my skin adjusted to it by now and I would get fewer pimples (like 1 pimple after 4-5 days of continuous usage) and my skin was almost detanned and a lot brighter. At that point, when my skin was almost but not completely detanned, I got a bad fever and I stopped using it for a couple of weeks. To my disappointment, my skin somehow went dark, not as dark as when we came back from Kerala, but darker than when I stopped using the serum. I mean I tolerated those pimples for the sake of detanning but I lost the brightening effect once I stopped using it.
However, there's one thing that's worth noting. Remember the bumps I talked about? The infection that I probably caught during my wedding makeup? The Vitamin C seemed to shrink them visibly. Yes I was waking up with new pimples every day, but apart from that 1 single pimple, the rest my skin was usually smoother while I was using it. When I was using the serum on alternate days, I would notice shrunk bumps the morning after using the serum. So I guess, with continuous usage, the Vitamin C serum can indeed heal my irritated area. And to be honest, yes I will give this serum another try, because the brightening effect that I achieved while using it was worth the experiment, and since my skin has almost adjusted to it, it doesn't hurt giving it another try. And maybe my brightening effect didn't last long because I didn't use it for a long period of time. But most possibly I'll stick to alternate day usage.
Not sure about sensitive skin beauties, but anyone who doesn't have a sensitive skin and wants a brighter and younger looking skin can try it.
Gave me pimples, but all Vitamin C gives me pimples.
I love using Vitamin C because it effectively brightens my face and lessens my dark spots but I have yet to find a vit c serum that doesn't feel oily. How about this one?
This one didn't make my skin oily but hydrated it.
The fact that this seemed to kind of darken your skin when you stopped using sounds like a con to me. But I do like that it heals acne scars decently.


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Toponymie

 Voïvodie de Mazovie
 Krzywica, village du powiat de Mińsk
 Krzywica, village du powiat de Wołomin

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Caught somewhere between the hip-hop sensibilities of beat music, the unabashed hook obsession of chillwave, and the ghostly moods of witch house you'll find Jack Colleran (a.k.a. Moths), a 17-year-old tunesmith who calls Ireland home. "Summer" is the latest track to drop on the internet from young Colleran, and it gathers those aforementioned contemporary sounds into one minimalist production boasting a sheen that belies the creator's age and brief musical career. Moths' quasi-tropical hook dances nimbly over a half-time groove, buried vocal coos, and the subtlest of molasses-paced basslines—rarely veering from its original formula. With only four original tunes under his belt, it'll certainly be interesting to see where this hungry artist takes his influences next.
Chuck Maurice & Simbad "Summer Badness"
Sleeps in Oysters "Moth Wings for John"


What size of solar electricity systems do I need?
Generally the bigger your power demands the bigger the system.
Until we complete a solar feasibility assessment for your business it is impossible for us to say what size system you will need. During this assessment we look at a range of different parameters including, site suitability, completing an energy audit and then solar performance modelling.
As China Sunpark was founded by engineers we pride ourselves in getting the planning right and making sure that we recommend the best designed system to meet our client's needs.


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Kim Holmen, research director of the Norwegian Polar... more
NY ALESUND, Norway
Kim Holmen, research director of the Norwegian Polar Institute, stands on the roof of the Zeppelin air pollution monitoring centre on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen, 1,200 km (750 miles) from the North Pole, in this photo taken August 21, 2007. Picture taken August 21, 2007. In the apparently pure Arctic air, a research station on a Norwegian island mountain ridge finds tiny chemical traces from factories in Russia, pesticides in Israel or China's coal-fired power plants. To match feature ARCTIC-POLLUTION/ REUTERS/Alister Doyle (NORWAY)
https://pictures.reuters.com/archive/ARCTIC-POLLUTION--GM1DWCTNNOAA.html
GM1DWCTNNOAA
Packages related medias:
CIS Weekly Selection - CIS Weekly Selection - 13 Sep 2007
Alister Doyle

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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In this example, data were collected from customers who made purchases from a retail company during years 2002 and 2003. A two-group structural equation model is fitted to the data.
For the ratings scales, nine-point scales were used. Customers could respond 1 to 9 on these scales, with 1 representing "extremely unsatisfied" and 9 representing "extremely satisfied." Data were collected from two different regions, which are labeled as Region 1 ( ) and Region 2 ( ), respectively. The ratings were collected at the end of year 2002 so that they represent customers' purchasing experience in year 2002.
How does the overall customer service affect the current purchases and predict future purchases?
How does the overall product quality affect the current purchases and predict future purchases?
Do current purchases predict future purchases?
Do the two regions have different structural models for predicting the purchases?
In stating these research questions, you use several constructs that might or might not correspond to objective measurements. Current and future purchases are certainly measurable directly by the spending of the customers. That is, because customer service and product satisfaction and quality were surveyed between 2002 and 2003, Spend02 represents current purchases and Spend03 represents future purchases in the study. Both variables Spend02 and Spend03 are objective measurements without measurement errors. All you need to do is to extract the information from the transaction records. But how about hypothetical constructs such as customer service quality and product quality? How would you measure them in the model?
In measuring these hypothetical constructs, you might ask customers' perception about the service or product quality directly in a single question. A simple survey with two questions about the customer service and product qualities could then be what you need. These questions are called indicators (or indicator variables) of the underlying constructs. However, using just one indicator (question) for each of these hypothetical constructs would be quite unreliable—that is, measurement errors might dominate in the data collection process. Therefore, multiple indicators are usually recommended for measuring such hypothetical constructs.
There are two main advantages of using multiple indicators for hypothetical constructs. The first one is conceptual and the other is statistical and mathematical.
First, hypothetical constructs might conceptually be multifaceted themselves. Measuring a hypothetical construct by a single indicator does not capture the full meaning of the construct. For example, the product quality might refer to the durability of the product, the outlook of the product, the pricing of the product, and the availability of product, among others. The customer service quality might refer to the politeness of the customer service, the timeliness of the delivery, and the responsiveness of customer services, among others. Therefore, multiple indicators for a single hypothetical construct might be necessary if you want to cover the multifaceted aspects of a given hypothetical construct.
Second, from a statistical point of view, the reliability would be higher if you combine correlated indicators for a construct than if you use a single indicator only. Therefore, combining correlated indicators would lead to more accurate and reliable results.
One way to combine correlated indicators is to use a simple sum of them to represent the underlying hypothetical construct. However, a better way is to use the structural equation modeling technique that represents each indicator (variable) as a function of the underlying hypothetical construct plus an error term. In structural equation modeling, hypothetical constructs are constructed as latent factors, which are unobserved systematic (that is, non-error) variables. Theoretically, latent factors are free from measurement errors, and so the estimation through the structural equation modeling technique is more accurate than if you just use simple sums of indicators to represent hypothetical constructs. Therefore, a structural equation modeling approach is the method of the choice in the current analysis.
In practice, you must also make sure that there are enough indicators for the identification of the underlying latent factor, and hence the identification of the entire model. Necessary and sufficient rules for identification are very complicated to describe and are out of the scope of the current discussion (however, see Bollen 1989b for discussions of identification rules for various classes of structural equation models). Some simple rules of thumb might be useful as a guidance. For example, for unconstrained situations, you should at least have three indicators (variables) measured for a latent factor. Unfortunately, these rules of thumb do not guarantee identification in every case.
In this example, Service and Product are latent factors in the structural equation model which represent service and product qualities, respectively. In the model, these two latent factors are reflected by the ratings of the customers. Ratings on the Courtesy, Responsive, Helpful, and Delivery scales are indicators of Service. Ratings on the Pricing, Availability, and Quality scales are indicators of Product (that is, product quality).
A path diagram shown in Output 29.28.1 represents the structural equation model for the purchase behavior. Observed or manifest variables are represented by rectangles, and latent variables are represented by ovals. As mentioned, two latent variables (factors), Service and Product, are created as overall measures of customer service and product qualities, respectively.
The left part of the diagram represents the measurement model of the latent variables. The Service factor has four indicators: Courtesy, Responsive, Helpful, and Delivery. The path coefficients to these observed variables from the Service factor are , , , and , respectively. Similarly, the Product variable has three indicators: Pricing, Availability, and Quality, with path coefficients , , and , respectively.
The two latent factors are predictors of the purchase amounts Spend02 and Spend03. In addition, Spend02 also serves as a predictor of Spend03. Path coefficients (effects) for this part of functional relationships are represented by a1–a5 in the diagram.
Each variable in the path diagram has a variance parameter. For endogenous or dependent variables, which serve as outcome variables in the model, the variance parameters are the error variances that are not accounted for by the predictors. For example, in the current model all observed variables are endogenous variables. The double-headed arrows that are attached to these variables represent error variances. In the diagram, to are the names of these error variance parameters. For exogenous or independent variables, which never serve as outcome variables in the model, the variance parameters are the (total) variances of these variables. For example, in the diagram the double-headed arrows that are attached to Service and Product represent the variances of these two latent variables. In the current model, both of these variances are fixed at one.
When the double-headed arrows point to two variables, they represent covariances in the path diagram. For example, in Output 29.28.1 the covariance between Service and Product is represented by the parameter .
For the moment, it is hypothesized that both 'Region 1' and 'Region 2' data are fitted by the same model as shown in Output 29.28.1. Once the path diagram is drawn, it is readily translated into the PATH modeling language. See the PATH statement for details about how to use the PATH modeling language to specify structural equation models.
The PATH statement captures all the path coefficient specifications and the direction of the paths (single-headed arrows) in the path diagram. The first five paths define how Spend02 and Spend03 are predicted from the latent variables Service, Product, and Spend02. The next seven paths define the measurement model, which shows how the latent variables in the model relate to the observed indicator variables.
The PVAR statement captures the specification of the error variances and the variances of exogenous variables (that is, the double-headed arrows in the path diagram). The PCOV statement captures the specification of covariance between the two latent variables in the model (which is represented by the double-headed arrow that connects Service and Product in the path diagram).
There are two simplifications in this PATH model specification. First, you do not need to specify the parameter names if they are unconstrained in the model. For example, parameter a1 in the model is unique to the path effect from Service to Spend02. You do not need to name this effect because it is not constrained to be the same as any other parameter in the model. Similar, all the path coefficients (effects), error variances, and covariances in the path diagram are not constrained. Therefore, you can omit all the corresponding parameter name specifications in the PATH model specification. The only exceptions are the variances of Service and Product. Both are fixed constants 1 in the path diagram, and so you must specify them explicitly in the PVAR statement.
Second, you use a condensed way to specify the paths. In the first three path entries of the PATH statement, you specify how Spend02 and Spend03 are predicted from the latent variables Service, Product, and Spend02. Notice that in each path entry, you can define more than one path (single-headed arrow relationship). For example, in the first path entry, you specify two paths: one is Service===>Spend02 and the other is Service===>Spend03. In the last two path entries of the PATH statement, you define the relationships between the two latent constructs Spend and Service and their measured indicators. Each of these path entries specifies multiple paths (single-headed arrow relationships).
You use this simplified PATH specifications in the subsequent analysis.
Each variable in the path diagram has a mean parameter that can be specified in the MEAN statement. For an exogenous variable, the mean parameter refers to the variable mean. For an endogenous variable, the mean parameter refers to the intercept of the variable.
The means of exogenous observed variables are free parameters by default. The means of exogenous latent variables are fixed zeros by default.
The intercepts of endogenous observed variables are free parameters by default. The intercepts of endogenous latent variables are fixed zeros by default.
The total number of mean parameters should not exceed the number of observed variables.
You use the GROUP statements to specify the data for the two regions. Using the DATA= options in the GROUP statements, you assign the 'Region 1' data to Group 1 and the 'Region 2' data to Group 2. You label the two groups by the LABEL= options. Because the number of observations is not defined in the data sets, you use the NOBS= options in the GROUP statements to provide this information.
In the MODEL statement, you specify in the GROUP= option that both Groups 1 and 2 are fitted by the same model—model 1. Next, the path model is specified. As discussed before, you do not need to specify the default mean parameters by using the MEAN statement because the MEANSTR option in the PROC CALIS statement already indicates the analysis of mean structures.
Output 29.28.2 presents a summary of modeling information. Each group is listed with its associated data set, number of observations, and its corresponding model and the model type. In the current analysis, the same model is fitted to both groups. Next, a table for the types of variables is presented. As intended, all nine observed (manifest) variables are endogenous, and all latent variables are exogenous in the model.
The optimization converges. The fit summary table is presented in Output 29.28.3.
The model chi-square statistic is 2820.25. With df = 77 and p < .0001, the null hypothesis for the mean and covariance structures is rejected. All incremental fit indices are negative. These negative indices indicate a bad model fit, as compared with the independence model. The same fact can be deduced by comparing the chi-square values of the baseline model and the fitted model. The baseline model has five degrees of freedom less (five parameters more) than the structural model but the chi-square value is only 399.747, much less than the model fit chi-square value of 2820.25. Because variables in social and behavioral sciences are almost always expected to correlate with each other, a structural model that explains relationships even worse than the baseline model is deemed inappropriate for the data. The RMSEA for the structural model is 0.2986, which also indicates a bad model fit. However, the GFI, AGFI, and parsimonious GFI indicate good model fit, which is a little surprising given the fact that all other indices indicate the opposite and the overall model is pretty restrictive in the first place.
PROC CALIS routinely checks the properties of the estimated variances and the predicted covariance matrix. It issues warnings when there are problems. In this case, the error variance estimate of Spend02 is negative, and the predicted covariance matrix for the observed and latent variables is not positive definite and has one negative eigenvalue. You can inspect Output 29.28.4, which shows the variance parameter estimates of the variables.
The error variance estimate for Spend02 is –14.40, which is negative and might have led to the negative eigenvalue problem in the predicted covariance matrix for the observed and latent variables.
Unlike the previous specification, in the current specification Group 2 is now fitted by a new model labeled as Model 2. This model is based on Model 1, as specified in REFMODEL statement. The ALLNEWPARMS option in the REFMODEL statement request that all parameters specified in Model 1 be renamed so that they become new parameters in Model 2. As a result, this specification gives different sets of estimates for Model 1 and Model 2, although both models have the same path structures and a comparable set of parameters.
The optimization converges without problems. The fit summary table is displayed in Output 29.28.5. The chi-square statistic is 29.613 (df = 46, p = .97). The theoretical model is not rejected. Many other measures of fit also indicate very good model fit. For example, the GFI, AGFI, Bentler CFI, Bentler-Bonett NFI, and Bollen nonnormed index delta2 are all close to one, and the RMSEA is close to zero.
Notice that because there are no constraints between the two models for the groups, you might have fit the two sets of data by the respective models separately and gotten exactly the same results as in the current analysis. For example, you get two model fit chi-square values from separate analyses. Adding up these two chi-squares gives you the same overall chi-square as in Output 29.28.5.
PROC CALIS also provides a table for comparing the relative model fit of the groups. In Output 29.28.6, basic modeling information and some measures of fit for the two groups are shown along with the corresponding overall measures.
where and are sample sizes for the groups and and are the discrepancy functions for the groups. Even though T is chi-square distributed under the null hypothesis, in general the individual terms and are not chi-square distributed under the same null hypothesis. So when you compare the group fits by using the statistics in Output 29.28.6, you should treat those as descriptive measures only.
The current model is a special case where and are actually independent of each other. The reason is that there are no constrained parameters for the models fitted to the two groups. This would imply that the individual terms and are chi-square distributed under the null hypothesis. Nonetheless, this fact is not important to the group comparison of the descriptive statistics in Output 29.28.6. The values of and are shown in the row labeled "Fit Function." Group 1 (Region 1) is fitted better by its model ( ) than is Group 2 (Region 2) by its model ( ). Next, the percentage contributions to the overall chi-square statistic for the two groups are shown. Group 1 contributes only 3% ( ) while Group 2 contributes 97%. Other measures like RMR, SRMR, and Bentler-Bonett NFI show that Group 1 data are fitted better. The GFI's show equal fits for the two groups, however.
Despite a very good fit, the current model is not intended to be the final model. It was fitted mainly for illustration purposes. The next section considers a partially constrained model for the two groups of data.
In this specification, you use a special model definition. Model 3 serves as a reference model. You are not going to fit this model directly to any data set, but the specifications of other two models makes reference to it. Model 3 is no different from the basic path model specification used in preceding examples. The PATH model specification reflects the path diagram in Output 29.28.1.
Region 1 is fitted by Model 1, which makes reference to Model 3 by using the REFMODEL statement. In addition, you add the MEAN statement specification. You now specify the intercept parameters explicitly by using the parameter names G1_intercept01–G1_intercept07, G1_InterSpend02, and G1_InterSpend03. In previous examples, these intercept parameters are set by default by PROC CALIS. This explicit parameter naming serves the purpose of distinguishing these parameters from those for Model 2.
Region 2 is fitted by Model 2, which also refers to Model 3 by using the REFMODEL statement. You also specify a MEAN statement for this model with explicit specifications of the intercept parameters. You name these intercepts G2_intercept01–G2_intercept07, G2_InterSpend02, and G2_InterSpend03. The G2 prefix distinguishes these parameters from the corresponding intercept parameters in the parent model. All in all, this means that both Models 1 and 2 refers to Model 3, except that Model 2 uses a different set of intercept parameters. In other words, in this multiple-group model the covariance structures for the two regions are constrained to be the same, while the means structures are allowed to be unconstrained.
You request additional statistics or tests in the current PROC CALIS analysis. The MODIFICATION option in the PROC CALIS statement requests that the Lagrange multiplier tests and Wald tests be conducted. The Lagrange multiplier tests provide information about which constrained or fixed parameters could be freed or added so as to improve the overall model fit. The Wald tests provide information about which existing parameters could be fixed at zeros (eliminated) without significantly affecting the overall model fit. These tests are discussed in more detail when the results are presented.
where k is the number of parametric functions within the simultaneous test. In the current analysis, the component parametric functions are defined in the SAS programming statements , which are shown in the last block of the specification. Essentially, all these parametric functions represent the differences of the mean or intercept parameters between the two models for groups. The first simultaneous test is intended to test whether the mean or intercept parameters in the structural models are the same, while the second simultaneous test is intended to test whether the mean parameters in the measurement models are the same.
The fit summary table is shown in Output 29.28.7.
The chi-square value is 107.55 (df = 68, p = 0.0016), which is statistically significant. The null hypothesis of the mean and covariance structures is rejected if an -level at 0.01 or larger is chosen. However, in practical structural equation modeling, the chi-square test is not the only criterion, or even an important criterion, for evaluating model fit. The RMSEA estimate for the current model is 0.0382, which indicates a good fit. The probability level of close fit is 0.9275, indicating that a good population fit hypothesis (that is, population RMSEA < 0.05) cannot be rejected. The GFI, AGFI, and parsimonious GFI all indicate good fit. However, the incremental indices show only a respectable model fit.
Comparison of the model fit to the groups is shown in Output 29.28.8.
Looking at the percentage contribution to the chi-square, the Region 2 fitting shows a worse fit. However, this might be due to the larger sample size in Region 2. When comparing the fit of the two regions by using RMR, which does not take the sample size into account, the fitting of two groups are about the same. The standardized RMR even shows that Region 2 is fitted better. So, it seems to be safe to conclude that the models fit almost equally well (or badly) for the two regions.
The constrained parameter estimates for the two regions are shown in Output 29.28.9.
All parameter estimates but one are statistically significant at . The parameter _Parm01, which represents the path coefficient from Service to Spend02, has a t value of 1.76. This is only marginally significant. Although all these results bear the title of Model 1, these estimates are the same for Model 2, of which the corresponding results are not shown here.
The mean and intercept parameters for the two models (regions) are shown in Output 29.28.10.
All the mean and intercept estimates are statistically significant at . Except for the fixed zero means for Service and Product, a quick glimpse of these mean and intercepts estimates shows a quite different pattern for the two models. Do these estimates truly differ beyond chance? The simultaneous tests of these parameter estimates shown in Output 29.28.11 can confirm this.
Output 29.28.11 shows two simultaneous tests, as requested in the original statements.
The exceedingly large chi-square value 10,460 suggests the composite null hypothesis is false. Individual tests for these hypotheses suggest that each of these hypotheses should be rejected. The chi-square values for individual tests are 10,227 and 185.84, respectively.
Similarly, the simultaneous and individual tests of the intercepts in the measurement model suggest that the two models (groups) differ significantly in the means of the measured variables. Region 2 has significantly higher means in variables Helpful, Delivery, and Pricing, but significantly lower means in variables Courtesy, Responsive, Availability, and Quality.
Now you are ready to answer the main research questions. The overall customer service (Service) does affect the future purchase (Spend03), but not the current purchase (Spend02), because the corresponding path coefficient (_Parm01) is only marginally significant. Perhaps this is an artifact because the rating was done after the purchases in 2002. That is, purchases in 2002 had been done before the impression about customer service was fully formed. However, this argument cannot explain why overall customer service (Service) also shows a strong and significant relationship with purchases in 2002 (Spend02). Nonetheless, customer service and product quality do affect the future purchases (Spend03) in an expected way, even after partialling out the effect of the previous purchase amount (Spend02). Apart from the mean differences of the variables, the common measurement and prediction (or structural) models fit the two regions very well.
Because the current model fits well and most parts of fitting meet your expectations, you might accept this model without looking for further improvement. Nonetheless, for illustration purposes, it would be useful to consider the LM test results. In Output 29.28.12, ranked LM statistics for the path coefficients in Model 1 and Model 2 are shown.
Path coefficients that lead to better improvement (larger chi-square decrease) are shown first in the tables. For example, the first path coefficient that is suggested to be freed in Model 1 is the Service <=== Courtesy path. The associated p-value is 0.0008 and the estimated change of parameter value is –0.171. The second path coefficient is for the Service <=== Helpful path, but it is not significant at the 0.05 level. So, is it good to add the Service <=== Courtesy path to Model 1, based on the LM test results? The answer is that it depends on your application and the theoretical and practical implications. For example, the Service ===> Courtesy path, which is a part of the measurement model, is already specified in Model 1. Even though the LM test statistic shows a significant decrease of model fit chi-square, adding the Service <=== Courtesy path might destroy the measurement model and lead to problematic interpretations. In this case, it is wise not to add the Service <=== Courtesy path, which is suggested by the LM test results.
LM tests for the path coefficients in Model 2 are shown at the bottom of Output 29.28.12. Quite a few of these tests suggest significant improvements in model fit. Again, you are cautioned against adding these paths blindly.
LM tests for the error variances and covariances are shown in Output 29.28.13.
Using , you might consider adding two pairs of correlated errors in Model 2. The first pair is for Delivery and Courtesy, which has a p-value less than 0.0001. The second pair is Pricing and Responsive, which has a p-value of 0.027. Again, adding correlated errors (in the PCOV statement) should not be a pure statistical consideration. You should also consider theoretical and practical implications.
LM tests for other subsets of parameters are also conducted. Some subsets do not have parameters that can be freed, and so they are not shown here. Other subsets are not shown here simply for conserving space.
PROC CALIS ranks and outputs the LM test results for some default subsets of parameters. You have seen the subsets for path coefficients and correlated errors in the two previous outputs. Some other LM test results are not shown. With this kind of default LM output, there could be a huge amount of modification indices to look at. Fortunately, you can limit the LM test results to any subsets of potential parameters that you might be interested in. With your substantive knowledge, you can define such meaningful subsets of potential parameters by using the LMTESTS statement. The LM test indices and rankings are then done for each predefined subset of potential parameters. With these customized LM results, you can limit your attention to consider only those meaningful parameters to be added. See the LMTESTS statement for details.
The next group of LM tests is for releasing implicit equality constraints in your model, as shown in Output 29.28.14.
Recall that the measurement and the prediction models for the two regions are constrained to be the same by model referencing (that is, the REFMODEL statement). Output 29.28.14 shows you which parameter can be unconstrained so that your overall model fit might improve. For example, if you unconstrain the first parameter _Parm01, which is for the path effect of Spend02 <=== Service, for the two models, the expected chi-square decrease (LM Stat) is about 0.0158, which is not significant (p = .9001). The associated parameter changes are small too. However, if you consider unconstraining parameter _Parm06, which is for the path effect of Courtesy <=== Service, the expected decrease of chi-square is 19.22 ( ). There are two rows for this parameter. Each row represents a parameter location to be released from the equality constraint. Consider the first row first. If you rename the coefficient for the Courtesy <=== Service path in Model 1 to a new parameter, say "new" (while keeping _Parm06 as the parameter for the Courtesy <=== Service path in Model 2) and fit the model again, the new estimate of _Parm06 is 0.2852 greater than the previous _Parm06 estimate. The estimate of "new" is 0.3196 less than the previous _Parm06 estimate. The second row for the _Parm06 parameter shows similar but reflected results. It is for renaming the parameter location in Model 2. For this example each equality constraint has exactly two locations, one for Model 1 and one for Model 2. That is the reason why you always observe reflected results for freeing the locations successively. Reflected results are not the case if you have equality constraints with more than two parameter locations.
Another example of a large expected improvement of model fit is the result of freeing the constrained variances of Courtesy among the two models. The corresponding row to look at is the row with parameter _Parm13, where the parameter type is labeled "COVERR" and the values for Var1 and Var2 are both "Courtesy." The LM statistic is 45.255, which is a significant chi-square decrease if you free either parameter location. If you choose to rename the error variance for Courtesy in Model 1, the new _Parm13 estimate is 0.8052 smaller than the original _Parm13 estimate. The new estimate of the error variance for Courtesy in Model 2 is 0.7211 greater than the previous _Parm13 estimate. Finally, the constrained parameter _Parm15, which is the error variance parameter for Helpful in both models, is also a potential constraint that can be released with a significant model fit improvement.
In addition to the LM statistics for suggesting ways to improve model fit, PROC CALIS also computes the Wald tests to show which parameters can be constrained to zero without jeopardizing the model fit significantly. The Wald test results are shown in Output 29.28.15.
In Output 29.28.15, you see that _Parm01, which is for the path effect of Spend02 <=== Service, is suggested to be a fixed zero parameter (eliminated from the model) by the Wald test. Fixing this parameter to zero (or dropping the Spend02 <=== Service path from the model) is expected to increase the model fit chi-square by 3.085 (p = .079), which is only marginally significant at .
As is the case for the LM test statistics, you should not automatically adhere to the suggestions by the Wald statistics. Substantive and theoretical considerations should always be considered when determining whether a parameter should be added or dropped.


text:
The Mercedes-AMG One Is Bad For The Environment
by Michael Accardi Supercars / Comments
Emissions compliance are holding up the project
Pretty much everyone except uppity midwestern mothers love the Mercedes-AMG One. Considering AMG promised to put a for-real-like-actual Formula 1 engine in the back, how could you not?
Well, it turns out that Mercedes is having a few issues with getting the engine to comply with emissions regulations, which probably stem from the fact that the engine was never actually designed to leave the confines of the race track.
According to an interview with Top Gear, AMG boss Tobias Moers has revealed that transitioning Lewis Hamilton's turbo V6 hybrid powertrain into something viable for the street is way harder than the AMG team had originally thought, especially when it comes to idle speeds.
"Heat is not the problem," Moers said. "The heat is not high. Getting a stable idle at 1,200 rpm, that's challenging."
Become A Better Driver With This Must-Have Gadget
You see, normally, AMG's F1 engine idles at 5,000 rpm, and revs all the way to 15,000 rpm, but that won't do.
"You have leakage in the throttles in Formula 1 and nobody cares, because it runs at a 5,000 rpm idle," Moers added. "At a 1,200 rpm idle, you have to meet the emissions regulations. You need a stable, proper idle. If it's unstable, your emissions are unstable."
Dealing with this issue has set the team back by a total of nine months, but Moers says the team is back on track and is currently engrossed in on-road drivetrain development and calibration. It's unclear what the AMG One's final outputs will amount to, as the team has been working to ramp up power as it grapples with driveability and emissions issues. Moers, did, however, confirm the car will redline at an astounding 11,000 rpm.
"We are not on the final power output yet. We used to run it with 40 percent, and we moved up to 60 percent. Now we run it with 80/85 percent. We see room for improvement."
But as AMG ramps up the power, it also has to go back and recalibrate the shift mapping for maximum smoothness. Regardless, the company is aiming to have the AMG One released into customer hands by sometime in 2020, and by the sounds of it, there's still plenty of work to be done by the 200 person team.
Tags: #Mercedes-Benz #Engine #Motorsport #Supercars
Mercedes-AMG ONE


Fields of flowers in Holland - some are picked by a family in traditional Dutch costume.
"Flower time in Holland - every field a carpet of Nature for Eve to harvest." M/S of a flower filled field - probably tulips. C/U of hyacinths. M/S of a field of flowers - narcissi? C/U of flowers - tulips? "Carpets - woven with myriads of glowing petals -" M/S seen through binocular shaped mask of two men picking flowers in a field. M/S of a family in traditional Dutch costume picking flowers - young boy at work in the foreground, a man and woman in the background. The woman gives the man a cup of tea and he drinks it. M/S of two women in Dutch costume picking tulips. M/S of young girl bunching some of the flowers together. She holds a flower out to the camera. "The gay wardrobe of the earth - plundered chiefly for daughters of Eve." Nice C/U of woman smelling flowers framed in a heart shaped mask. She smiles and laughs. L/S of group of traditionally dressed Dutch people climbing onto a barge - the women hold bunches of flowers.
Was an item in Eve's Film Review issue number 612.
Nice shots of Dutch fields of flowers - children pick daffodils and a man plays the accordion.
Queen and Prince Philip receive tremendous reception on their visit to Paris.
Inauguration of new President of the Republic, General Charles de Gaulle in Paris.
Cuts for newsreel story 47/36 - Royal Tour of South Africa.
Russian leader makes statement after failure of international Summit Conference and leaves.


// certificate pattern, this class searches for a matching client certificate.
// Each time it finds a match, it configures the network accordingly.
// to the NSS database. If not set, uses base::WorkerPool.
// networks for which a matching cert is found (see ConfigureCertificates).
// |matches| contains networks for which a matching certificate was found.
// networks are skipped in the NetworkListChanged notification.
// Unowned associated (global or test) instance.
// TaskRunner for slow tasks.


The other weekend I was out and about in soggy weather and noticed my Ugg boots were letting in water. I have had them for a while but was still disappointed as I haven't actually worn them that much considering.
They are definitely over the Year warranty but I may still follow it up with Head office; however in the meantime with a ski trip pending and the weather as it is I thought I'd invest in a new pair of Snow boots.
For Ski wear inspiration I tend to look at the Net-A-Porter Ski shop first, then Snow and Rock for an overview of trends. Whilst a dash of citrus brights seem to be this seasons update a monochrome look was coming through as a strong basic look. See more Snow fashion forecasts here at thesnowmag.com and 10 best Winter Boots article at Instyle.com. I've also started a Pinterest board of Snow Boot Outfits here.
Sorel is a trusted brand for footwear and I loved these black and white Glacy Explorer full fleece lined snow boots; which are appropriate for light snow and are also waterproof. They were the ones that I kept going back to and so decided to buy them from Sorel directly. Unfortunately by the time I got an email informing me they were sold out in my size they were also sold out on most other websites too!
Luckily Avenue 32 also stocked the style and I was very impressed with their service, delivery and packaging when I received them the next day, see above pics, so would definitely buy from them again. I'm very happy with the longer version as they also do a shortie boot, below, if you want an alternative to a welly and aren't planning to be in the snow any time soon!
I've put together a ski outfit for todays outfit builder, below, building on the black and white theme with some playful, bright base layers from Sweaty Betty to add interest. If you are going on the slopes soon Sweaty Betty have posted an informative article on 'What to look for in your skiwear'. Click on the links to shop and thanks for stopping by.


text:
Saint-Pierre-Roche est une commune française, située dans le département du Puy-de-Dôme en région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.

Géographie

Localisation
Saint-Pierre-Roche est située au sud-ouest du département du Puy-de-Dôme.

Cinq communes sont limitrophes (six en incluant le quadripoint avec Mazaye) :

Urbanisme

Typologie
Saint-Pierre-Roche est une commune rurale, car elle fait partie des communes peu ou très peu denses, au sens de la grille communale de densité de l'Insee.

Par ailleurs la commune fait partie de l'aire d'attraction de Clermont-Ferrand, dont elle est une commune de la couronne. Cette aire, qui regroupe , est catégorisée dans les aires de  à moins de .

Occupation des sols

L'occupation des sols de la commune, telle qu'elle ressort de la base de données européenne d'occupation biophysique des sols Corine Land Cover (CLC), est marquée par l'importance des territoires agricoles (87,5 % en 2018), une proportion identique à celle de 1990 (87,5 %). La répartition détaillée en 2018 est la suivante : prairies (69,4 %), zones agricoles hétérogènes (18,1 %), forêts (10,1 %), zones urbanisées (2,5 %).

L'IGN met par ailleurs à disposition un outil en ligne permettant de comparer l'évolution dans le temps de l'occupation des sols de la commune (ou de territoires à des échelles différentes). Plusieurs époques sont accessibles sous forme de cartes ou photos aériennes : la carte de Cassini (), la carte d'état-major (1820-1866) et la période actuelle (1950 à aujourd'hui).

Voies de communication et transports
La commune est traversée par plusieurs routes départementales :
 d'est en ouest, la route départementale 2089, ancienne route nationale 89 reliant Clermont-Ferrand à Rochefort-Montagne, Tulle et Bordeaux ;
 vers le nord, la route départementale 986, ancienne route nationale 686 reliant la  près de Massagettes à Pontgibaud ;
 à l'ouest, la  dessert le village de Massages ;
 le chef-lieu est desservi par la route départementale 563 au départ de Massages.

Histoire
Au cours de la période révolutionnaire de la Convention nationale (1792-1795), la commune a porté le nom de Roche.

Politique et administration

Découpage territorial
La commune de Saint-Pierre-Roche est membre de la communauté de communes Dômes Sancy Artense, un établissement public de coopération intercommunale (EPCI) à fiscalité propre créé le  dont le siège est à Rochefort-Montagne. Ce dernier est par ailleurs membre d'autres groupements intercommunaux. Jusqu'en 2016, elle faisait partie de la communauté de communes de Rochefort-Montagne.

Sur le plan administratif, elle est rattachée à l'arrondissement d'Issoire depuis 2017, à la circonscription administrative de l'État du Puy-de-Dôme et à la région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Avant , elle faisait partie du canton de Rochefort-Montagne.

Sur le plan électoral, elle dépend du canton d'Orcines pour l'élection des conseillers départementaux, depuis le redécoupage cantonal de 2014 entré en vigueur en 2015, et de la troisième circonscription du Puy-de-Dôme pour les élections législatives, depuis le dernier découpage électoral de 2010.

Élections municipales et communautaires

Élections de 2020
Le conseil municipal de Saint-Pierre-Roche, commune de moins de , est élu au scrutin majoritaire plurinominal à deux tours avec candidatures isolées ou groupées et possibilité de panachage. Compte tenu de la population communale, le nombre de sièges à pourvoir lors des élections municipales de 2020 est de 11. La totalité des candidats en lice est élue dès le premier tour, le , avec un taux de participation de 60,41 %.

Chronologie des maires

Population et société

Démographie

Culture locale et patrimoine

Lieux et monuments

L'église de Saint-Pierre-Roche a été reconstruite en 1867. Celle de Massagettes est construite vers 1870 et elle est placée sous le vocable de « Notre Dame du Purgatoire, reine de l'espérance » (selon l'inscription gravée sur le porche de l'édifice).

Dans le village de Prades se trouve une croix datée de 1095, année de la première croisade prêchée à Clermont.

Personnalités liées à la commune
 François Boucheix,  peintre surréaliste français.

Héraldique

Voir aussi

Bibliographie
 Baron de Reyvialles, Chevalier Boucheix, Éditions Arvenes 2022
 Baron de Reyvialles, Mort pour la France, Éditions Arvernes 2022

Articles connexes
 Liste des communes du Puy-de-Dôme

Liens externes

Notes et références

Notes et cartes
 Notes

 Cartes

Références

Commune dans le Puy-de-Dôme
Commune dans l'arrondissement d'Issoire
Commune ayant porté un nom révolutionnaire dans le Puy-de-Dôme
Aire urbaine de Clermont-Ferrand
Aire d'attraction de Clermont-Ferrand


France's Budget Minister, Eric Woerth, has reportedly warned that any advertising of online gaming sites remains illegal until the new legislation is implemented.
The notification emerged after the release of recent advertising campaigns including the one from operator BetClic.
As per the current developments shared by Gaming Intelligence, BetClic has already started its advertising campaign on radio.
Unibet has signed a partnership with French radio station Radio Monte Carlo to sponsor a new programme called `Les Paris RMC'. The estimated €1 million contract will run during 2009 with an option to extend into 2010. Unibet has also invested a further €1 million into the development of a reality TV programme on sports and poker.
In an interview with France's Le Figaro, Isabelle Parize, MD of Mangas Gaming, said that the company was aware of Woerth's objections to the marketing activities currently underway.
"We have been waiting for months now," said Parize. "The bill was presented to the Council of Ministers in March and we are effectively in a pre-liberalisation phase. We cannot sit waiting with our arms crossed while FDJ is accelerating its marketing activities, launching new games and entering into new partnerships.
Since the announcement of the liberalisation last summer, Woerth has repeated several times that the opening of the online gambling market will be controlled. In other words, it means that the opening will be limited and that gambling operators will have to satisfy a large number of specifications to obtain a licence.


Refer to the procedure up to Remove Instrument Panel Safety Pad Assembly (See page ).
(b) Remove the 2 screws and the navigation antenna assembly.
(a) Install the navigation antenna assembly with the 2 screws.
Refer to the procedure from Install Roof Headlining Assembly (See page ).


Minneapolis' Uptown now has an arcade-bar! A retro arcade-bar with retro pricing; all games just $.25. More than 50 games including life sized Jenga, Skee-ball, and Nintendo 64.
With over 60 beers on tap, house-made pizza by the slice, and great happy hours, it will quickly become one of your favorite Uptown bar hangouts.


text:
Aledmys Díaz Serrano (ur. 1 sierpnia 1990) – kubański baseballista występujący na pozycji łącznika w Toronto Blue Jays.

Przebieg kariery

Naranjas de Villa Clara
Karierę rozpoczął w 2007 roku w występującym w Serie Nacional de Béisbol zespole Naranjas de Villa Clara. W ciągu pięciu sezonów gry w SNB zanotował średnią 0,300, zdobył 32 home runy i zaliczył 185 RBI. Grał na pozycji drugobazowego, trzeciobazowego, łącznika, lewo- i prawozapolowego. W 2012, po opuszczeniu kadry narodowej, która występowała na turnieju w Holandii, osiadł w Meksyku.

Major League Baseball

St. Louis Cardinals
9 marca 2014 podpisał kontrakt jako wolny agent z St. Louis Cardinals. Zawodową karierę rozpoczął w Palm Beach Cardinals (poziom Class A-Advanced) i Springfield Cardinals (Double-A), w którym rozpoczął również sezon 2015. 23 sierpnia 2015 został zawodnikiem Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A).

5 kwietnia 2016 ze względu na kontuzję Tommy'ego Phama został powołany do 40-osobowego składu St. Louis Cardinals i tego samego dnia zadebiutował w Major League Baseball w meczu przeciwko Pittsburgh Pirates, w którym zaliczył single'a. Dwa dni później w meczu z Atlanta Braves zdobył pierwszego home runa w MLB jako pinch hitter. 23 kwietnia 2016 w spotkaniu z San Diego Padres zaliczył pięć odbić. W lipcu 2016 po raz pierwszy został powołany do NL All-Star Team, zastępując kontuzjowanego Matta Carpentera.

Toronto Blue Jays
W grudniu 2017 w ramach wymiany zawodników przeszedł do Toronto Blue Jays.

Nagrody i wyróżnienia

Przypisy

Kubańscy baseballiści
Baseballiści St. Louis Cardinals
Baseballiści Toronto Blue Jays
Urodzeni w 1990


I thought it was ok. Sometimes I liked the characters and other times not. Kinda get the feeling the woman should never trust a man againsince they all treat her badly. Had to finish thw book to see how it ended. Would I get the rest of the book in this series no I wouldn't.


text:
Turning seaweed into everyday products
Researchers at the Biorenewables Development Centre (BDC) are involved in the implementation of a novel seaweed biorefinery – which is the whole process of refining sustainably cultivated seaweed biomass to become value-added end products.
Two pilot pre-industrial seaweed biorefinery plants will provide vital seaweed compounds for a wide range of products such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, food and feed ingredients, fine and specialty chemicals, additives and blends such as gels, as well as precursors for biodegradable plastics.
Seaweed, or "macro-algae", has long been recognised as a valuable source of diverse bioactive compounds and has great potential to be used in pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals and functional foods. However, until now, seaweed has been underexploited in Europe due to the challenges of expanding seaweed biomass production: costs need to be reduced, scales of production need to be increased, quality improved, and seaweed biomass needs to be successfully refined into multiple useful products. By addressing these issues, seaweed biomass production could become more economically and environmentally sustainable.
Working with colleagues at the Centre for Novel Agricultural Products (CNAP), University of York, this summer work begins to scale up integrated processes giving rise to a range of new and existing products from two high-yielding species of European seaweed biomass: the brown alga Saccharina latissima (also known as Sugar Kelp) and the green alga Ulva rigida (often called Sea Lettuce) By scaling up the processes, the BDC will analyse different integrated biomass fractionation process scenarios for both seaweed species. Product extracts from these processes will then be sent to the industrial partners for application tests.
Ana Casas Garcia, Lead Technologist working on the project said: "The BDC's open access R&D facilities are the perfect environment to scale up these processes to see if they are commercially feasible. Our equipment and expertise and our close working relationship with CNAP will act as a catalyst for turning seaweed biomass into novel everyday products for a variety of sectors."
Scaling up diverse seaweed-derived chemical compounds for existing and new applications will support new jobs, upskill, growth and investment in the blue economy (activities based on the sustainable and smart use of renewable aquatic natural resources), while ensuring environmental sustainability for Europe.
Funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, this work is carried out by GENIALG – the first industry-driven project bringing together pioneering companies in large-scale integrated European biorefineries and experts in seaweed cultivation, genetics and metabolomics to boost the seaweed industry.
Visit the GENIALG website.
GENIALG Twitter account.
BDC GENIALG Case Study.
Innovation in Yorkshire
Flexible Project Funding