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Bungo Stray Dogs Season 4 Episode 1 and Ending, Explained
Mirza Aaqib Beg
In the first episode of 'Bungo Stray Dogs' season 4, Yukichi Fukuzawa accidentally comes across an arrogant boy genius named Ranpo Edogawa while working as a professional bodyguard. After learning that he needs a job, Fukuzawa takes him to a theater owner when he meets her for his next assignment. That's where he finally realizes how powerful Ranpo's deduction abilities really are. Here's everything you need to know about the ending of 'Bungo Stray Dogs' season 4 episode 1. SPOILERS AHEAD!
Bungo Stray Dogs Season 4 Episode 1 Recap
One ordinary day, Yukichi Fukuzawa reaches a crime scene shortly after the murder of a woman. When he reaches her office, he finds her secretary carefully laying out a ton of paper all over the floor. When Fukuzawa expresses his shock at the murder, the secretary acknowledges it. He then reveals that the assassin was actually apprehended at the crime scene by one of the guards, which means Fukuzawa does not really have much to investigate.
However, Fukuzawa still wants to see the killer. The secretary does not mind that but only asks him to not step on the papers as he is trying to deduce the possible motivations for the murder since the assassin has refused to say anything. When Fukuzawa sees the killer he becomes apprehensive as he feels that it is highly unlikely that a guard alone was able to catch him. Interestingly, a young boy named Ranpo arrives there around the same time since he had a meeting scheduled with the victim.
Since he can not have a job interview now, Ranpo asks for a certificate that will allow him to claim unemployment benefits. But when the secretary claims again that he has arranged all the papers on the floor to study everything and find a possible motivation for the murder, Ranpo points out that it is an obvious lie. He then opens the window which helps him separate his certificate from lighter papers that are flown in the air because of the windy weather. When the secretary makes a fuss about it, Ranpo does not hold back any longer.
He points out that nothing was taken from the office and in fact, the suspected killer has nothing to do with the murder. Ranpo argues that the victim was killed by her secretary himself. He has been laying all the papers on the floor to obstruct any investigation of the room and it turns out that it would have been impossible for anyone to approach the victim without being noticed- which meant that she knew the killer.
Furthermore, Ranpo also argues that fingerprints can easily be falsified, so all the evidence point in the direction of the secretary. While the young detective is making a strong case against the secretary, the tied-up suspected killer finally wakes up and manages to get hold of the two guns on the table. He then evades Fukuzawa's attacks and as soon as he sees an opening, he kills the secretary for framing him for the murder claiming that there is no forgiveness in his worldview.
Bungo Stray Dogs Season 4 Episode 1 Ending: Does Ranpo Edogawa Have a Special Ability? When Does Fukuzawa Comes to Fully Appreciate it?
Ranpo is regarded as the greatest detective in the world for a good reason. His super deduction allows him to break down a case with such detail and accuracy that it can fool anyone into believing that it is a special ability. But it turns out that his detective skills are a mere result of his brilliant mind that is able to get to the bottom of things without much effort. In the first season of the show, Dazai even proves this to Atsushi by making Ranpo use his super deduction, while he tries to nullify any powers by using his special ability called No Longer Human. So, that proves that Ranpo only relies on his intellect to solve cases and does not really have any special ability that he can boast about.
The latest episode focuses on Fukuzawa and Ranpo's first meeting before the Armed Detective Agency was even established. When he takes Ranpo to the theater owner, Ranpo does not shy away from showing off his skills. Fukuzawa has been invited there because of a death threat. Soon after meeting the theater owner, Ranpo concludes that his chance of getting the job are almost nil. So he rants briefly about adults not being honest and even points out the fact that the theater owner does trust the police or Fukuzawa which is why she has asked for the help of both of them. Later that day, Fukuzawa continues to seriously investigate the situation but when he feels that there will be no attack on the theater that day, he is corrected by Ranpo.
It turns out that Ranpo assumed that Fukuzawa was also aware of the meaning of the message sent to the theater owner. He points out that there is a difference between a threat and a declaration. Since the message said that an actor will be killed, Ranpo argues that it was a declaration. As the young detective breaks down his reasoning even further, Fukuzawa is shocked by his deduction ability and asks him to analyze himself- which turns out to be a huge mistake. Ranpo is so accurate in his assessment and ends up referring to some past wounds that Fukuzawa starts shouting at him as he could not bear to listen anymore.
Read More; Is Bungo Stray Dogs 4 on Netflix, Hulu, Prime, Crunchyroll, or Funimation?


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Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen
Laven, Max 1 1.195Mb PDF View/Open
Thesis information
Brazilian (non) compliance with international human rights norms. The case of indigenous peoples' rights
Laven, Max
This research, written as part of Amnesty International The Netherland's 'Strategic Studies Project', is aimed at explaining why Brazil does not comply with international norms on indigenous peoples' rights, although this it is a so-called 'ideal case' which depicts all the characteristics and outcomes under which the Risse, Ropp and Sikkink (2013) model expects compliance to take place. As this theoretical model, however, remains rather vague on the actual processes and mechanisms leading up to compliance, a new theoretical model is constructed based on the work of various IR scholars. After formulating three hypotheses designed along the lines of the social mechanisms that foster compliance with international human rights norms, we start analyzing the Brazilian (non) compliance with international norms on indigenous peoples' rights and the role of various actors in 'pushing' the Brazilian government from commitment to compliance with these norms, using the qualitative method of process tracing. It appeared that all three 'mechanisms' work. However, although they played in role in advocating for compliance, these mechanisms were not as 'strong' as expected on beforehand, as the various transnational actors were not able to 'move' the Brazilian government from commitment to compliance with international norms on indigenous peoples' rights. Therefore, we propose three additional scope conditions that may affect the 'working' of the social mechanisms. Incorporating the (perceived) salience of an issue, the relative weight of (economic) 'gains' and 'losses' and the target actor's 'nature' into the Risse, Ropp and Sikkink (2013) model has not only the potential to improve this theoretical model, but also the potential to provide transnational actors (such as Amnesty International) with better insights in the processes and mechanisms that influence states' move from commitment to compliance with international norms.
Supervisor(s):
Eimer, T.R.
Master Political Science

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The anniversary of Jesus' birth has just been celebrated, someone I knew recently answered God's call and my mum's funeral is been organized. The burial ceremony has been fixed for mid-January in the villa.
Last contact with mums was on the phone two days to her demise and in the flesh about seven weeks before d-day. I cried when I saw the body…all swollen with the face hardly recognizable. It's excruciating thinking of how her final moments were. My mum always was an extremely careful driver and a conservative vehicle owner; it's ironical that she died in a car crash. The experience sure has made me extra aware of the losing a parent/your parents reality.
I'm some how tired of all the talk that I have to do…or that is done during condolence visits. I wonder how the village talk is going to be like…you know speaking Igbo and ish. The condolence visits can be quite inconveniencing when they're long. At times I wish people would just tone down on the outward expression of sorrow, give gifts and be gone. But I don't blame them though, I understand that they're just trying to show that they're touched by our loss and their hearts are with us.
I hate the fact that a lot of money is about to be spent. Why can't we just keep ish simple? It still would be befitting. Damn the flamboyant African ceremony culture…it's quite annoying considering the fact that I'm a young man still trying to find his feet and in need of money to get started independently. Them ceremonies (weddings, title takings, burials, festivals) are really nice though…especially when you ain't footing the bill unwillingly.
I've discovered that I'm not in love with events planning (especially the financial aspect) as much as I thought I was. Managing people ain't as easy as it appears. Responsibility is an eye opener…Amodu, Onigbinde, Chukwu, Eguavoen and Siasia are waste pipes. Ok, talk is cheap; go get management baptism with a high school football team first. It's a humbler. Also organizing on an unfamiliar terrain will pose some challenges. I mean, me organizing ish in a village I'm not too familiar with...uhm. God dey, I've got a requiem speech/poem to write; be safe!
It is well dear brother. The closest i ever had to a burial of a family member was when my grandpa died 8 yrs ago. Take heart, january will come and go and you'll be strong and filled with grace to stand and make mamma proud of you!
I really don't know what to say, for once I am at a loss of words.
All the best my man.
It's ok to go through all these feelings...but just know that it will be well.
Accept my condolence on the demise of your mum. It is really hard for someone to lose his/her mother.
Please do not be disturbed by all those funeral things going on. It is tradition, and has to be done. I feel you because of your financial helplessness, but then take solace in the fact that everyone understands your plight.
May God give you the grace to bear her loss. Peace to you.
men...growing up i'd always thot the older i got, the easier it'd get to give condolences...but i've realized that it gets harder with time...i really don't know what to say...so i would say much.
i jus pray that God who knows all things gives u strenght in ur tryin times and grants u the fortitude to bear the loss.
May God grant you the fortitude to bear your loss.
Hi Trae. I sure know the feeling cos I've been there. I ddnt even have the opportunity to seeing my mum's corpse. She was buried while I was away. You've sure been a strong hearted man. Keep being strong man.
Boy, really sorry to hear about your mum's death. Really sorry, man. It's a pity. Good to see you're taking it like a man. Accept my heartfelt condolences. God dey, and He knows best.
my brother, take heart. all will be well. please accept my condolences.
I was just thinking about you and came to visit your blog after a long long time, only to see that you've lost your mother. My condolences. Be strong.
may God grant you the strength to go through this period.
I understand the whole expenses thing. I hope my time I'd be cremated and my remains spread over some place I'd choose. Don't wanna put no burdens on no one.
Meanwhile, I hope the burial and all that goes with it goes smoothly. I just got back in town yesterday eve.
Sorry to hear about the death of your mother. Please take heart.
Take heart for God gives and He takes. May God give u the fortitude to bear the loss.


Most blog posts, articles or books with a title like this would go on to describe the positive impact of peer instruction on student learning. I even write those kinds of posts, myself.
This one is different, though, because it's not about peer instruction being worth the effort by (and for) the students. This one is about how it's worth the effort by (and for) the instructor.
In my job with the Carl Wieman Science Education Initiative, I sometimes work closely with one instructor for an entire 4-month term, helping to transform a traditional (read, "lecture") science classes into productive, learner-centered environments. One of the common features of these transformations is the introduction and then effective implementation of peer instruction. At UBC, we happen to use i>clickers to do facilitate this but the technology does not define the pedagogy.
I hear that good clickers questions take soooo much time to prepare. I just don' t have that time to spend.
So, is that true, or is it a common misconception that we need to dispel?
Here's my honest answer: Yes, transforming your instructor-centered lectures into interactive, student-centered classes takes considerable effort. It feels just like teaching a new course using the previous instructor's deck of ppt slides.
What about the second time you teach it, though?
A year ago, in September 2010, I was embedded in an introductory astronomy course. The instructor and I put in the effort, her a lot more than me, to transform the course. By December, we were exhausted. Today, one year later, she's teaching the same course.
a lot of re-paginating last year's ppt decks because they're not quite in sync. Today's Class_6 is the end of one last year's Class_5 plus the beginning of the last year's Class_6 so it needs a new intro, reminders, learning goals slide.
she tweaks the peer instruction questions, perhaps based on feedback we got last time (students didn't understand the question, no one chose a particular choice so find a better distractor, and so on). The "Astro 101" community is lucky to have a great collection of peer instruction questions at ClassAction. Many of these have options where you can select bigger, longer, faster, cooler to create isomorphic questions. It takes time to review those options and pick ones which best match the concept being covered.
like every instructor, she looks ahead to the next couple of classes to see what needs to be emphasized to prepare the students.
Last year: 4-5 hours per hour in class.
Nope. Those 3-4 hours per class times 3 classes per week equals about 10 hours a week are now used to do the other parts of being a professor.
Is incorporating peer instruction into classes worth the effort? Yes, absolutely. For both the students and the instructors.
This entry was posted in astro 101, clickers, teaching. Bookmark the permalink.
I wholeheartedly agree. The first semester is a challenge. Good clicker questions don't just fall out of the sky. But after that, the investment pays for itself. What I thought you were going to blog about is how much more rewarding many instructors find using clicker questions and peer instruction. The few that I've talked to refuse to go back! Forgetting about student engagement and learning for a second, peer instruction classes are simply far more enjoyable to me the instructor. That's right, *I'm* more engaged, and that's probably a great thing for the students as well.
Glad I'm not the only one seeing (and feeling) this, Robert. The topic you expected, how peer instruction makes teaching more enjoyable for the instructor, is certainly worth a post. I'm sure @derekbruff and @sciencegeekgirl have written one or two. Hundred.
Just yesterday, my colleague @CynHeiner mentioned another benefit to peer instruction. She uses that minute when they're "convincing your neighbour you have the right answer" to catch her breath, scan the next few ppt slides, get the upcoming worksheet out of her backpack. A nice, little break, just when she needs it.


What ever happened to taking one day at a time and one thing at a time? Furthermore, what happened to taking one season at a time? Ever been in a Cracker Barrel late Summer early Fall? In one corner you have Halloween. Another corner has a big Christmas display and tucked off to the side is a Thanksgiving display.
Last night, Halloween came and went and if I were a betting woman, I bet in the next day or so when I enter a department store of any kind, I anticipate that I will be hearing Christmas carols being played over head. Yet, we haven't had Thanksgiving! Along with carols being played over head in the stores, I see postings on Facebook that people are firing up their Christmas music. Come on people! What's the rush?
Okay, I admit I do have a couple of Christmas gifts already purchased and stashed away. I purchase gifts beginning in summer so that when the holiday season gets here the house budget doesn't get drastically busted. Yet, those gifts won't come out to be wrapped until after Thanksgiving. And, Jim and I are in the choir at our church and are singing in the Symphony Chorus this Christmas. Our rehearsals for both of these events began a couple of weeks ago. But, I don't want to hear Christmas music outside those venues until after Thanksgiving.
To go along with not wrapping presents until after Thanksgiving, I don't like to put the tree up until around Black Friday or after. For me, I feel that we not only rush the seasons a wee too much but we forget to savor each day God gives us. We were created for God's enjoyment. However, I don't think he enjoys seeing us rush from place to place and from season to season. As a matter of fact, I am sure his heart breaks when he sees us rushing through life.
What happened to the anticipation of waking up on Thanksgiving morning to watch the Macy Day Parade where Santa arrives at the end of the parade? For me, that is the start gun of moving into the Christmas season. Then, the next day going out (at a descent hour) to see the store fronts and streets decorated. Don't even get me started on my thoughts on Black Friday ( wrote about that last year and will probably re-post it as the time draws closer)!!
At the beginning of this post, I posted the song/video, 'Feelin' Groovey. Some the lyrics in the song make this statement; "slow down, you walk to fast." You've got to make the moment last." Our society is a fast pace society. In this fast pace, we forget that we are placed here to enjoy life, enjoy others and to be attentive to God at work in our lives every single day. Instead, before we are done with one task/holiday, we are already moving on to the next one or skipping a task/holiday to get to another.
My son, Drew has a favorite quote from the movie, Ferris Buehler's Day Off; "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. " I think the character Ferris Buehler hit how we go through life pretty square on the head with this quote.
For those of you who are moving from the songs like The Monster Mash and other Halloween tunes to songs like; The Christmas Song and Jingle Bells, hit the pause button on that CD player/iPod and slow it down a little. Each and every day is a gift from God. In each new day, he gives us many blessings whether we realize it or not.
Remember the hymn; Count Your Blessings? The lyrics are; "count your many blessings name them one by one. Count your many blessings and see what God hath done." God gives us the Season of Fall for a reason. He blesses us with brilliant colors, with temperatures that are just perfect for a brisk walk with him outside and all the scents of the season. God is giving us the perfect setting to stop, reflect on all that God has done in our lives over the last year. It is a time to count our blessings and give him praise and thanks for all that he has done for us in our everyday living.
Watch and listen to the video below. As you watch, reflect on all that God has brought you through this year and offer Him a prayer of thanksgiving.
This entry was posted in Christmas Thoughts and tagged Christian Devotional, Christian Encouragement, Christian thoughts, Christmas, Christmas and holiday season, Christmas music, counting our blessings, fast paced world, God, Halloween, Psalm 100, rushing the holiday season, slow down enjoy life, Thanksgiving, why rush by April. Bookmark the permalink.


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Close and Personal: Rebe Taylor
Dr Rebe Taylor is a historian specialising in Tasmanian anthropology and archaeology. She first encountered Tasmanian Aboriginal history on a beach on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, hearing stories about the women who had been taken there by sealers. She has been trying to understand the history of Tasmanian Aboriginal diaspora, loss, rediscovery and endurance ever since.
Dr Taylor's most recent publication is Into the Heart of Tasmania, which tells the story of English gentleman Ernest Westlake, who in 1908 packed a tent, a bicycle and forty tins of food and sailed to Tasmania. On mountains, beaches and in sheep paddocks he collected over 13,000 Aboriginal stone tools. Westlake believed he had found the remnants of an extinct race whose culture was akin to the most ancient Stone Age Europeans. But in the remotest corners of the island Westlake encountered living Indigenous communities.
The book tells a story of discovery and realisation. One man's ambition to rewrite the history of human culture inspires an exploration of the controversy stirred by Tasmanian Aboriginal history. It brings to life how Australian and British national identities have been fashioned by shame and triumph over the supposed destruction of an entire race. To reveal the beating heart of Aboriginal Tasmania is to be confronted with a history that has never ended.
Into the Heart of Tasmania is one of the Writers Centre's Recommended Reads for the month of March. If you pop over to our Recommended Reads post you'll see that we have a copy to giveaway, thanks to Melbourne University Press.
We are delighted that Dr Rebe Taylor was able to take some time to answer our questions for the TWC blog.
Can you tell us a bit about how and where you write?
I write in a converted garden shed at the end of my garden, looking out onto a huge fig tree, and surrounded by the various sounds of my dense neighbourhood: trains, mowers, birds, a ukulele and and the snoring of my Cavalier King Charles Spaniel. I often write a rough plan with pencil, but I write on a computer, touch typing. I retype sentences a lot. But before I make any major changes to a chapter I save a new version. I sometimes have up to 60 versions. Usually the best writing comes just as I'm about to go and pick up the kids from school, so I will often take my phone and talk the sentences or the newly devised structure into it, and use the recordings to start the next day. This sounds smooth, but it usually involves quite a bit of anxiety.
Can you tell us a bit about the process of writing the book eg how long it has been from conception to publication? Did it involve a lot of new research for you that was specific to the book, or was it a way of collating a lot of the work that you'd already done as an academic?
It took me about two years from the first sentence to publication to write this book. But getting to that first sentence took far longer. I first encountered the Westlake archive in Oxford, in 2000, on a PhD exchange between the Oxford and Australian National Universities. Even when I submitted my PhD in 2004, I felt my journey with Westlake had only just begun. I continued to explore the meanings and historical context of what he found in Tasmania in a Post Doctoral Fellowship: I wrote about how his interviews with Tasmanian Aborigines and settlers challenged the notions that Tasmanian Aborigines could not make fire or catch scaled fish; I explored the broader historical questions surrounding the notion of their supposed extinction, of genocide and of Australia's national shame; and I examined the relationships between academic history writing and archaeological and anthropological research and the politics of Tasmanian Aboriginal protest and self-determinism. Throughout all that time I worked on digitally publishing Westlake's entire Oxford archive (Stories in Stone: The Collections of Ernest Westlake (1855-1922),co-authored with Michael Jones and Gavan McCarthy). And I had two children. Then, in about 2014 I realised 'I have a book'. I could see and feel the structure. I just had to write it. I couldn't collate or cut and paste much of the previous writing. I had to begin again, and create a new entity. I wanted it to be imaginative, creative and personal. That involved new research. It took a month just to research and write Westlake's journey into the British Museum to see Tasmanian Stone tools in the ethnographical gallery. I spent weeks researching what train would Westlake have caught from Fordingbridge to Liverpool! And I revisited his letters and poured through them again and again.
Your biography states that your first encounter with Tasmanian Aboriginal History was on a beach on Kangaroo Island – can you tell us a little more about that?
It was shortly after my arrival to Australia from England with my family when I was about 7 years old. We spent our summers on a sheep farm that was first inhabited by a man who arrived as part of the sealing trade that took Europeans from the Bass Strait to South Australia, and beyond, from the early 1800s. Nat Thomas, I remember being told, was a kind of 'white savage'. He dressed in skins and traded seal pelts for rum with passing ships on the same beaches where we played and swam. He 'kept' Aboriginal women brought from Tasmania as 'slaves' and 'beat them' if they tried to escape. These were strong impressions! And they stayed with me. When I put forward my Honours thesis topic proposal it was to write a history exploring the representations of the sealers and their Aboriginal partners as 'savages' and 'slaves'. My Masters thesis extended this interest: it was a genealogical history tracing the six generations of descendants of Nat Thomas and his Tasmanian Aboriginal partner, 'Betty'. This was the beginning of what became the book Unearthed (Wakefield Press, 2004 and 2008).
(I should add: anyone interested in the representations of the so-called 'sealers' and their Tasmanian Aboriginal partners as 'savages' or 'slaves' should read Patsy Cameron's book Grease and Ochre, Fullers Bookshop, 2011).
How was the experience of working with people like Jim Everett, Greg Lehman and Patsy Cameron?
A privilege and an honour. They took me into their homes and hearts, and spent many hours talking to me (and listening to me babble on). Their generosity is incredible. They are kind and patience teachers. I learned so much. I have never stopped realising how little I know. It was humbling. And it was also a lot of fun. They are warm-hearted people with an irrepressible sense of humour; mocking the ridulous assumptions made about their culture and people with a cheeky irreverence that remembers their continuing resistance. We are all so lucky that they have such a wonderful determination to share what they have sustained and endured.
And in all this I would like to include Clinton Mundy. I am so grateful for his tenacity that we should honour his ancestor, Fanny Smith, with getting the chapter on her as correct as we could manage. And I was also helped by other members of the community in many wonderful conversations, as my acknowledgements demonstrate.
What do you think are the biggest challenges currently facing members of Tasmania's Aboriginal communities?
My first response to that question is that it should be posed to them. I can't really answer that. The challenges are seemingly multifarious and and on-going. But what I am so pleased to see, is a shift away from what has been one of their hardest challenges, the idea of their supposed 'extinction' to a wider recognition that they are a living community. When I used to tell people what I was writing about Tasmanian Aboriginal history, I'd get responses such as: 'didn't we kill them all?', or 'there aren't' any of them left, are there?' I don't hear that anymore. And when I first went to the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery I remember seeing a diorama of an Aboriginal 'family' (child, father and mother) standing behind glass, with a plastic crayfish on a fire. There was no mention of their continuing culture or community. But the last time I was there I saw the wonderful kanalaritya shell necklace exhibition with curator Zoe Rimmer and chair of the exhibition board, Theresa Sainty. I learned so much more about the women's continuing culture than seeing the mannequins behind glass.
But what strikes me too, is despite this awareness, some things have seemingly not changed. As the book explores in the prologue and the epilogue, it seems almost unfathomable to understand how concrete pylons could be dug into what the government knew was 41,000 years of continuing Aboriginal history in order to construct a massive bridge over the Jordan River as part of the Brighton Bypass in 2011. The Aboriginal sit-in protest and their requests to build the bridge elsewhere, along with the archaeological findings all went unheeded. And then the government had the temerity to call the bridge 'conservation'. It was hurtful and shameful.
You were born in London, but have lived in Australia since you were 5 – do you think it's a good place to be a writer?
I can't say with firsthand knowledge what it's like to write outside of Australia, but since writing anywhere is challenging, simply because it is such a hard thing to do, it must be far less of a challenge to write here where it is relatively safe, beautiful, and where I have the freedom to be critical and analytical. And there is inspiration to be drawn from such freedom and beauty, even if it is to look to the darker and more confrontational parts of Australia's past and its echoes in the present. It would help a great deal if there was a greater monetary value placed on history, research and writing. It is a constant financial struggle to find the time to write for that reason.
Who do you think are the most important people and communities to provide you with support and direction as a writer?
I think a writer values time to write above all. So that means money, and a quiet space to work. Those things often require help – from an employer who allows leave, or a partner who pays the bills, or a funding body, or kind philanthropist., writer centres and advances from publishing houses. It is also crucial to have kind but critical readers – someone who you trust to handover what feels so raw and private. I think a good editor is a gift. They can take so much of the fear and loneliness out of writing. I would say that, if possible, give your editor early drafts and bits of work, so that you know the manuscript is heading in the right direction and the first overhaul isn't overwhelmingly hard. Sally Heath (excutive editor, MUP) was a fabulous editor. She knows how turn a manuscript into a whole entity that a book should be.
And of course a supportive community helps: friends and family who who tolerate sudden cravings for solitaryness followed by demands to listen endlessly about your writing.
Who are some of your own favourite writers and recent reads?
While I was writing Into the Heart of Tasmania I couldn't really read anything for pleasure. I kept seeing the words within a framework of the craft of writing, and if I admired the craft, (which was often the case) I'd find myself almost unconsciously channeling that writer when I returned to my desk. I couldn't 'take it in' or get lost in the story or the analysis. So, since finishing the book I've had an insatiable hunger to read. I borrow piles of books, and buy what I can afford, and pile them up next to my bed, and read several at once. I have especially loved Tom Griffiths' The Art of Time Travel. Tom has long been an influence to my work (he was my PhD supervisor) and reading his latest book lead me to return to some of the books that has influenced him, including Grace Karsken's The Colony and Donna Merwick's The Death of a Notary. When I went camping on the remote south-east coast of Victoria in January I took with me Mark McKenna's From the Edge, and I looked out to the beach and imagined the survivors of the Sydney Cove walking past. This lead me to return to Mark's earlier book Looking for Blackfella's Point. I am loving having that vertiginous feeling that there is so much to read, and so much I still don't' know about the early history of Australia.
Is there anything that has been scary about finally having your book out there in the world being read by people, or has it been a completely positive experience?
I saw my first printed copy just before Christmas and was all 'wow' and 'yay!'. And then there was a six-week wait before it was released. In that time I had an overwhelming feeling the book was awful and I didn't want anyone to read it. Or even talk about it. A week before its release, I was camping and out of range. I came home to find a full two-day itinerary of radio interviews. My heart started thumping and my legs went cold. What was I going to say? Who was going to look after the kids? But it turned out to be wonderful fun. And the events at Fullers and Readings Bookshops to launch the book were amongst the best nights of my life! So many friends and kind words and wine. Having a really kind, calm and very effective publicist, like Perri Palmieri at MUP makes a huge difference to the ability to enjoy the celebration of publication. But a little part of me has started to long for the shed in the garden and the days when the only people I speak to are my family and perhaps their teachers or the baker or checkout girl.
Can you give us a sneak preview of what you're working on next?
Well, it's not written yet! But I can't wait to stop researching and start actual writing. I am the Coral Thomas Fellow at the State Library of New South Wales. My project explores the Wedge Collection in the Saffron Walden Museum in North Essex, England. This is one of most significant collections of south-eastern Aboriginal wooden artefacts dating from Australia's early colonial period. Surveyor John Helder Wedgecollected some of artefacts at the close of the Black War, but it seems none are of Tasmanian Aboriginal design.
Who made the artefacts? How did they end up in little-known museum in rural England? This is a project that begins with the object and tries to understand its makers, and the stories of encounter that lead to its collection. It seems many of that the artefacts were owned by men brought from New South Wales and employed by Wedge's friend and neighbor, John Batman, from 1829. These men helped Batman, and other Tasmanian settlers, on the 'roving parties' that aimed to capture Tasmanian Aborigines in the early 1830s. Several of the New South Wales Aboriginal men then travelled with Batman and Wedge to found Melbourne in 1835, and were asked help to negotiate the supposed 'treaty' with the Kulin people. Many of the artefacts in the Wedge collection are seemingly Kulin made. I am intrigued to try find out the life stories of these encounters, and especially the lifestories of the young New South Wales men who lived with Batman for so long. Where had they grown up? What was it like to experience the violence of the Tasmanian frontier? What was it like to travel and live amongst the Kulin people? I am full of questions at the moment, and finding the answers seems difficult, urgent and exciting. I hope the end result is at least compelling.
To see more about Rebe, go to www.rebetaylor.com
You can also follow Rebe on Twitter.
Author photo credit: Helen Morgan (helenmorgan.net)
Posted in Blog, Close and Personal


Oops. Alarm went off and neither one of us woke up. I have to leave on a job in a few minutes and he's still asleep and I JUST woke up!
I have 2 jobs today and then off until next week. I got a call about one last night thankfully so I made a bit more.
So I guess I will get to do weights after all, just not until later. That's okay!
I'm off to the races!
First job cut the time in half and second job drove herself so I sat there waiting for an hour for nothing!
I am frustrated! I'm home now. I'm going to cook and clean and watch Netflix. Done.
Previous Post I am so freaking worn out!


Thomas Stackhouse's popular self-published illustrated history of the Bible.
With many beautiful engraved plates and maps, including a plan of the Temple of Solomon, maps of the travels of Jesus and St. Paul, a fold-out illustration of Noah's Ark and a plate depicting the Passover of the Jews.
Expertly rebound in half calf bindings with marbled paper covered boards. Externally, sound with shelfwear and rubbing. Slight cracking to one joint. Internally, firmly bound. Foxing to first and last few pages but otherwise generally bright and clean with just the odd spot. Some pages have been repaired and one or two have very slight marginal loss. Some plates have been discreetly reinforced to repair curling or small closed tears. Closed tears to the Noah's Ark folding plate.


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How do Brits rate various immigrant groups? From Aussies to Somalis...
The figures come from YouGov research carried out on 24th and 25th April. The 1,668 adults interviewed are representative of the population's...
...political leanings and geographical distribution. Between 40% and 50% of the responses to each question about specific immigrant groups were either neutral (i.e. neither negative nor positive) or "don't know", which might simply reflect the fact that - for instance - the Scots won't have much contact with members of most of these immigrant groups. It might also be a sign of innate good manners - a reluctance to offend.
The survey was carried out in the wake of the Windrush scandal - that spectacular own goal scored by a weary, muddled, demoralised and poorly-led Tory government. The best explanation I've read for this monumental cock-up is that the tone-deaf officials who carried out the policy were probably remainers who, assuming that the leavers are all racists who hate immigrants, imagined that turfing out West Indian-origin Brits was what Brexiteers had voted for in the referendum!
The positive attitude towards Jamaicans may have something to do with sympathy over - and a desire to signal disapproval of - the Windrush mess. One might have expected greater negativity, given street crime and London's stabbing epidemic, but perhaps Britons don't view the second and third-generation perpetrators as having much to do with the West Indies - and, of course, they associate West Indians with the (incomprehensibly) beloved NHS. But none of that explains the negative view of Nigerians, which genuinely surprised me (their approval rating was actually even lower in March 2017). There's evidently something going on out there I know nothing about: to be honest, I would have expected the Nigerians to be several places above Pakistanis.
It's heartening to see that Poles are still well-regarded, despite (or perhaps because of) a massive influx of them into Britain in recent years - perhaps it's just that most people's interaction with Poles has been positive, as one would have expected. The research also seems to confirm Britons' generally warm feelings towards Indians. Germans? Seems like the war is over, and that they've been forgiven for inflicting all those losses at football (and for recently organising a Europe-wide Million Muslim Facebook party). And it's good to see the Americans still up there, despite the spectacularly negative, sneering coverage of Donald Trump's presidency. Where we live, the main new immigrant groups - apart from Americans - seem to be Italians, Spaniards and French folk. Those three don't get on the list, but I bet they'd receive extremely positive ratings - the only real worry I had over Brexit was that some of them might leave as a result of the referendum.
As for the Romanians and Somalis - is anyone really surprised?
For a nation of mean, miserable, intolerant, xenophobic racists, the British do seem to be surprisingly positive about foreigners!
southern man 3 May 2018 at 09:17
I feel sorry for all the decent hard working Romanians.
Is Little Lagos in Thamesmead still the fraud capital of Europe?
In this part of the world the black money and 419 scam is still alive and kicking.
Tucker Carlson: Buttigieg's Black-Only Microaggression Survey Shows 'Elite Narcissism' Of Democrats


I used to treat books like sacred relics. I would read them carefully, never making notes in the margin or dog-earing the pages. These days, I'm more tolerant. The physical condition of a book means something else to me: well-preserved books tend to be the ones I haven't read much, whereas battered ones show me the importance they've held in my life.
Perhaps my most battered book of all is What is History? by E.H. Carr. This is not entirely my doing – I acquired the book from my school library, and the form in the front shows generations of schoolboys borrowing it, all the way back to "Skinner, September 1970". The first few lines record its steadily deteriorating condition, but this petered out around 1978.
I think its condition was so bad that they told me I could keep it – or perhaps I stole it in a juvenile attempt at revenge. I can't quite remember. In any case, I took it to university, and this is where the cover became detached and even the sellotape holding it together got eroded.
This book, you see, is a history undergraduate's dream. It has a quote for every occasion, a whole raft of pithy observations on the nature of history that you really need at 3am when you've drunk so much whisky and coffee that you're not sure which subject you're meant to be studying.
I recently reread it one last time before it falls apart completely. The essential arguments are not as controversial as they were in 1961, but I've never seen such a lucid summary of issues on the study of history, so thought it would be worth a recap, especially given the nonsense I still sometimes hear about objectivity.
First of all, there is of course no such thing as objectivity. Carr shows this by studying what is meant by a historical fact. We think this is simple, but it isn't. There are millions of facts about the past. At the same time as Hitler was invading Poland, my grandfather was mowing his lawn. The historian doesn't record all the facts; she selects on the basis of significance.
Historians don't even deal in facts for the most part. They deal in causes. "The great historian – or perhaps I should say more broadly, the great thinker – is the man who asks the question 'Why?' about new things or in new contexts." Only the most simplistic school textbook would simply record that Hitler invaded Poland in 1939; the true historian does not linger long on such a fact before examining the causes.
Carr successfully demolishes the binary opposition of "determinism in history" versus "chance in history", showing that causation in human affairs is complex and not reducible to a choice of "inevitable" or "accidental". He loses me, though, when he distinguishes between "rational" and "accidental" causes, saying that historians focus on causes that lead to fruitful generalisations to other countries and periods, rather than one-off accidents like Lenin's premature death or Alexander's monkey-bite. To me, those events are as important a part of history as the "rational" causes, whether or not they have broader lessons to impart.
In the chapter "History as Progress", Carr cleverly charts the changes in the concept of progress over time, and shows how at moments of optimism and success, historians believe in progress, while at moments of bleakness they lose this belief. In the late nineteenth century, the British Empire was at its zenith, but in 1961, when he wrote this book, it was in decline. Now, it's tough to find anybody who subscribes to the idea of progress.
If there are still copies of this around I'd love to get one. As a fellow lover of history and how it's studied I've been nodding my head like crazy over this post (I probably love history a bit too much). You study the whys when you first start, but it's always only going to be an overview and having a book all about it sounds brilliant.Objectivity is good but yes, there is only ever so far you can be, and you're always going to select the evidence that backs you up.
Yes, I think there should still be copies available – my edition is ancient, but I'm sure there are newer ones. It's good to find a fellow history-lover. I think we can learn so much from studying the past, but it's important to recognise our own biases and to be aware that we're not collecting facts so much as telling ourselves stories.
I really, really should read this as the subjects are of interest to me. The entire determinism thing I think is still and may always be an open question. I totally agree about objectivity being illusionary. I think that while that concept is now generally accepted, it is difficult for many to keep in mind.
I hope you do – it's a good read. Very straightforward and easy to read, but covering some really interesting ground. I think you're right – people know now that objectivity is an illusion, but it's still very ingrained in the way we think.
It was wonderful to read your thoughts on Carr's book, Andrew! This book has been there in our home as long as I can remember because my father taught history in school and he had a collection of history books and this was part of that. I read it only a few years back, though. It is a wonderful book and an excellent introduction to history. That sentence you have quoted, about history being a continuous process of interaction between the historian and his facts, is one of my favourites too. I also loved your observation about objective facts. The book is leaping at me from the bookshelf now and I am so tempted to read it again. Thanks a lot for this review and for making me feel nostalgic 🙂 And I have to say that I am so jealous of you for having studied history in university 🙂 By the way, did you post a review of Norman Davies' 'Europe'?
Oh, I never did post a review of 'Europe', did I? I read it in the last few days of being in London before moving to Barbados (it was too heavy to take with me!!). That was such a busy time for me that I didn't have time to review it, and by the time I'd got settled in Barbados it already seemed distant. I really enjoyed it, though, and appreciated the even-handed look at European history, which is so often skewed towards Western Europe.
I saw the title of this post Andrew and hoped it was about this book. I love it. I read it in University in the 1970s and have never forgotten it because it made SUCH sense. As you say, objectivity is impossible, and facts are either suspect or misleading or not very useful, usually because as you say (Carr says) they are not the only story, not the full story. I love, for example, the expansion in the last couple of decades of social history, of the study of women's history, all things I didn't learn in highschool or university but the stuff of our lives.
My EH Carr has the same cover and is annotated and thumbed but has had only one owner so is in somewhat better condition than yours. I wonder where Skinner is now?
Ah, you have the same edition! That's great to hear. Yes, I'm sure you've been more careful with yours than Skinner & Co were with mine.
It's a wonderful book, isn't it? And you're right about the ways in which history has changed to take account of other perspectives and to be more close to ordinary lived experience rather than charting the lives of "great men". Carr couldn't have anticipated the developments, but he did anticipate that some developments like that would take place – he was very clear that history reflected the age it was written in, and was always changing to accommodate the values and priorities of the historians and the society they live in.
Thanks for the comment! Great to know we share a love for such an old but valuable book.


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Persone
 Alan Brandi (1987) – giocatore di calcio a 5 spagnolo naturalizzato argentino
 Alberto Brandi (1963) – giornalista e conduttore televisivo italiano
 Cesare Brandi (1906-1988) – storico e critico dell'arte, saggista e specialista nella teoria del restauro
 Cristian Brandi (1970) – allenatore di tennis ed ex tennista italiano
 Domenico Brandi – (1684-1736) – pittore italiano
 Ferruccio Brandi (1920-2014) è stato un generale italiano
 Francesco Brandi (1982) – attore e drammaturgo italiano
 Francesco Ferdinando Brandi, nato Francesco Brandi (1969) – drammaturgo e regista teatrale italiano
 Giacinto Brandi (1621-1691) – pittore italiano
 Jenő Brandi (1913-1980) – pallanuotista ungherese, olimpionico del 1936
 Karl Brandi (1868-1946) – storico tedesco
 Kristina Brandi (1977) – ex tennista portoricana
 Leo Brandi, nome d'arte di Carlo Todini (1894-1979) – attore caratterista e cantante italiano
 Lucio Mariano Brandi (1918-1998) – politico italiano
 Matilde Brandi (1969) – ballerina, showgirl e conduttrice televisiva italiana
 Nicola Brandi (1918-1940) – militare italiano, medaglia d'oro al valor militare
 Piero Brandi (1939-2004) – pugile italiano
 Tom Brandi, ringname di Salvatore Sincere (1966) – ex wrestler statunitense
 Walter Brandi, nome d'arte di Walter Bigari (1928-1996) – attore e produttore cinematografico italiano

Pagine correlate
 Brandy (disambigua)
 Brando

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


I certainly had a sense that this was someone who wanted to be part of change. . . . I think she wanted to make a contribution, and I think she made a very powerful and worthwhile contribution.
Ask someone which restaurants they are satisfied with and they will gladly tell you. Ask them which restaurants they recommend and their answer puts their personal reputation at risk. They don't want to disappoint their friends, who are likely to patronize the restaurants they recommend.


Bankers and investors are increasingly confident that the country's next president will adopt a programme of fiscal reforms, even though no leading candidates are standing on that platform. Why? Because over the past decade, Brazil has become a 'marketocracy'.
Brazil's democracy has added a new feature in the last few years: people can vote for a president, but the markets retain the right to deploy an 'impeachment put' if that president is messing up the economy.
For proof, look no further than the fate of former president Dilma Rousseff. Her impeachment in 2016 was legally based on fiscais pedaladas (accounting irregularities). That she was almost alone among powerful politicians not to be cited in the sweeping Lava Jato corruption enquiry was not enough to save her. External forces still found a way to oust her from office.
Now, two years later, few senior market participants even bother to pretend the accounting charge was anything other than a markets-driven constitutional fig leaf to remove a bad president, whose terrible economic policies pushed the country into its deepest ever recession.
Guedes then also compared the impeachment on accounting grounds with Al Capone's prosecution for tax evasion.
Stuhlberger and Guedes were just saying in public what many are now increasingly happy to say in private.
As Euromoney reported in May 2016, powerful business leaders were in fact the ones pushing politicians to remove Rousseff, as refinancing risks threatened to create a wave of corporate defaults throughout Brazil.
In 2012, Brazilian corporates and financial institutions raised $46.8 billion in the international markets – a much cheaper source of finance than local banks or capital markets. By contrast, in 2015, the total raised in the international markets was just $7.2 billion. In the first five months of 2016, no deals had come to those markets. The markets had given their own vote of no confidence in Rousseff.
Banks did the same. Their provisions against the threat of corporate insolvencies spiked; in 2015, 5,500 companies sought bankruptcy protection – the most since 2008 – with forecasts of many thousands more to come as financial market liquidity evaporated.
Pressure built. The vent was impeachment.
This quote alludes to the second component of the markets' phlegmatic view that the next Brazilian president will automatically be a fiscal reformist – a belief that is completely unshaken by the complicating fact that the two individuals leading the early electoral polls are not seen as candidates who would calm the markets.
Nor is it clear who the main market-friendly candidates will be, nor how a potentially crowded field of centrist candidates will avoid splitting the reformist vote and complicate the calculation of who will contend the final run-off election between the top two candidates from November's first-round poll.
Put simply, the consensus is built on the recognition that the dismantling of Brazil's leftist Workers Party (PT) has gone far enough beyond Rousseff's impeachment to prevent its return.
Former president Lula da Silva (in office from 2002 to 2010) is leading the polls for this election but has been sentenced to 12 years and one month in prison for corruption and money laundering. He is quickly exhausting legal challenges that would allow him to stand as a candidate (as well as prevent his incarceration).
Meanwhile, in late February, the PT's 'plan B' should Lula not be able to run, Jaques Wagner, ex-governor of the northern state of Bahia, had his house raided and stands accused of embezzling R$82 million ($25 million) related to the 2014 World Cup.
The left say Lula is being targeted by the elite who want to prevent the PT from returning to office. His opponents say the charges of corruption are just and reflect the massive and systemic practice of channelling money from state-run enterprises to the country's powerful political parties (the PT's presidents ran coalitions, and all the leading parties – including the PMDB and PSDB – have been implicated in the Lava Jato corruption enquiries).
The truth is both versions are correct. Lula's PT embraced existing practices of charging for political patronage from state-owned and private companies that wanted to win government contracts. The scale became supercharged as the size of these companies and contracts grew, fed by the country's growing financial weight during the commodities boom.
However, people quick to label Lula a crooked aberration conveniently ignore previous administrations' similar illegal practices and the fact that Brazil's fragmented (there are currently 28 political parties in congress) and interest-based system almost guarantees corruption because of the need to 'buy' votes to get parliamentary majorities.
Since Rousseff's impeachment, Brazil has been run by her deputy, Michel Temer, a member of the centrist PMDB party, who led the move to oust her and remains in power, albeit with very low approval ratings (they have recently doubled to 6%) amid corruption allegations of his own.
President Temer simply ignored his lack of mandate and unpopularity and initially enjoyed good governability in congress, passing market-friendly labour reforms, as well as other micro reforms like the change of the interest rate applied to state development bank BNDES. But he has since been caught up in corruption allegations, and the government's time and resources are going into shoring up his political base in congress.
The assumption is that Brazil's recent market-friendly rule will continue, however unpopular it may be with the electorate: the path forward having been demonstrated when the economic recovery finally arrived with 1% GDP growth in 2017.
However, this could well be tested. Although the economy came out of recession in 2017, the poor have borne the brunt of the downturn. Unemployment remains stubbornly high – at over 12% – and projections that the country's GDP will take four years to reach 2013's level, show the size of the economic hole into which it had fallen.
Research from local consultancy Tendencias Consultoria shows that 4.6 million Brazilian households slipped from socioeconomic group C into the lower ranks for D and E between 2015 and 2017 (in contrast to 3.3 million moving up from D and E between 2006 and 2012). A third piece of research shows that the richest Brazilians increased their wealth by 2.2% in real terms during roughly the same period (and paid an effective tax rate of just 6.1%).
Combined, these forces could become powerful.
The fact is the poor remember Lula's PT presidency as one that took so many Brazilians from poverty and into the middle classes. The PT has been out of power since Rousseff's impeachment and the disproportionate economic pain of the deep recession since has fallen on the poor.
And there is also the sideshow of a corruption enquiry that is finding proof of corruption among politicians from all of the main political parties but where prosecutions seem to be partial, with a remarkable lack of activity against politicians in the PDSB in particular.
Added together there is clearly potential for widespread disenfranchisement and political instability.
It is these forces that Lula has been tapping into: despite the conviction for corruption, he is leading the polls for the first round, and in projections for the run-off he beats all comers, according to polling data presented by BNP Paribas.
The only other candidate who has double-digit polling numbers for the first round is Bolsonaro, currently the other viable non-centre candidate.
Bolsonaro is running on a populist, socially conservative platform that harks back to military rule. For example, as a congressman, he invoked the name of the general who oversaw the torture of Rousseff as a young woman when voting to impeach her.
He also alarmed many when, arguing with a congresswoman, he shouted that she "wasn't worthy" of being raped.
He has advocated a mix of conservative and social economic policies, speaking out, for example, against key elements of the proposed economic reform package, such as pension reform and making the central bank independent.
In reality, Bolsonaro could be the markets' dream solution.
When confronted with economic and financial policy questions, he used to obfuscate, saying he was not an economist and would delegate that aspect to an expert. If he won and followed through by appointing Guedes as finance minister, the subsequent liberal economic agenda – huge cost cutting in state programmes and a large pipeline of privatizations and concessions to raise money to pay down government debt – would have bankers and investors salivating all the way to Brasilia.
Ironically, if Lula is barred from running, political analysts believe Bolsonaro will be weakened.
"For Bolsonaro to grow [his poll numbers], he needs the participation of Lula in the elections because that enhances his ability to create polarization," says Thiago de Aragao, partner at Arko Advice, a political consultancy in Brasilia.
Aragao also points out the Brazilian electoral system is stacked against Bolsonaro and other candidates that are not backed by a large party.
Candidates are allotted TV time based on the size of parties in parliament – air time cannot be bought. This means that Bolsonaro will likely have around one minute for every 10 the main party's candidate has – while many other candidates will also have between three and five minutes.
Also, Aragao points out that voters do not know much about the controversial side of Bolsonaro yet, beyond his law and order shtick. If he is a leading candidate during the campaign proper, he will be attacked and his rejection rating is likely to rise. "Plus he has been a congressman since 1991, so his ability to create a perception of being a fresh solution that is not based on polarization is very hard," says Aragao.
Bolsonaro is the most followed 'pre-candidate' on Twitter and Facebook. As elsewhere, social media is going to have a bigger role in this election than before, but Aragao is convinced it will remain marginal.
And anyway, even if Bolsonaro did win, the market would retain its 'put'.
"Let's say Bolsonaro did win – he runs an excellent campaign and everyone else makes terrible mistakes. Either he would have to be a president who is completely different to what he said as a candidate in order to get the support from the PMDB, PSDB and other parties, by moderating and adapting to traditional politics, including fiscal reform," says Aragao. "Or, if he didn't adapt and he challenged the [fiscal and financial reforms], congress would wait for his first minor slip and would do the same to him as they did to Collor in 1992." That impeachment put again.
Ultimately a lot of the financial world's consensus about a market-friendly outcome to this presidential election is down to the fact that Brazil is a parliamentary system masquerading as presidential.
Beyond Lula and Bolsonaro, it is hard to see past São Paulo's governor, Geraldo Alckmin, as favourite – although that is more because of lack of credible contenders than his popularity. Others include São Paulo mayor João Doria, but he is a member of the same party (PSDB) as Alckmin and would likely have to change horse to run for the presidency.
Finance minister Henrique Meirelles would probably be the market's choice if they could choose outright, but his polling is around 1% and he is struggling to convince his own party, the PSD, to let him run. They would prefer to seek increased power in the next administration's coalition by immediately partnering with a viable candidate.
Meirelles is reportedly eager to run, but his lack of party (he claims other parties are interested in adopting his candidacy) and popular support mean that, although he may be able to persuade himself to become a candidate, he would convince few others.
His inability to pass pension reform does not help him project a candidacy based on effectiveness, while a report by Buzzfeed, widely publicized in Brazil, of offshore earnings of R$217 million in 2016 for "consultancy work" overshadowed his pitch as a 'new political broom' in the eyes of the public.
Marina Silva is the only other viable candidate to emerge to date and although she is probably seen as more leftist than the other main candidates, that consensus believes she would have little choice but to adopt fiscal and pensions reform.
This is the other main plank of the consensus: whoever wins will have to pursue reforms because there is no option. The constitutional spending limit, which freezes public sector expenses in real terms for 20 years, means that without limiting pension payments (currently growing at about 5% a year in real terms) there will be no room for budgetary manoeuvre. Even with pension reform, further cuts will be necessary for the next government to remain under the cap. This is logical. But there are still risks to the downside that the consensus seems to be disregarding.
The first risk relates to the speed and the scale of the reforms that will be needed, especially in light of the failure of the Temer administration to reform pensions.
Roberto Sifon, head of the Americas' sovereign team at S&P Global in New York, sees greater time pressures than most in the market – also reflected by all agencies continuing to cut the sovereign's rating deeper into junk territory this year.
Others point out that the speed of gradual adjustment of the Temer administration will have to be increased.
"Fundamentally, the public sector – federal and local governments – is now more than ever challenged to simultaneously increase its investment and its savings rate (ideally by cutting current spending)," says a report by Goldman Sachs' economist Alberto Ramos.
Since 2014, the private sector has shouldered most of the burden of generating increasing financial surpluses and gradually deleveraging its balance sheet. Also, improvements, such as that in the current account, have been more cyclical in nature than structural.
Even the failed pension reforms would not have been enough according to some.
UBS's chief economist and one-time voting member of the Brazilian central bank's monetary policy board (Copom), Tony Volpon, emphasizes that Temer's reforms weren't that substantive.
And here is the next risk: governability issues will not miraculously disappear in the next term. That will depend on the composition of the new congress, and Aragao says the issue is complicated by an electorate that often votes for candidates for congress that oppose their choice for president, because in Brazil voting decisions are more based upon personalities than policies.
Also, with Lava Jato investigations continuing, it is possible that the next president and his or her ministers could be similarly implicated. Further corruption-inspired deadlock cannot be discounted. After all, every candidate comes from within the system.
Sifon also worries about the typically Brazilian risk caused by a "little rebound".
GDP growth is expected to near 3% this year and the government's fiscal position has improved markedly in recent quarters. In January, the consolidated public sector posted an above market-consensus primary surplus of R$46.9 billion.
While all economists point out that short-term improvements will not overcome the longer-term debt dynamics and increasing debt burden (now at 74.5% of GDP), the good numbers might lead the next president to make lower impact, less politically toxic reforms.
Worse, the next president may decide to prioritize other electoral commitments and policy priorities, leaving pensions and other fiscal reform to later. This would increase the severity of the necessary reform when it materializes and make it harder to pass in a congress nearing another set of elections.
Finally, as Volpon alluded to, external risks may also come into play for the next president. The last few years have seen exceptionally benign financial conditions for EM countries and Latin America in particular.
That should remain, but with the US embarking on a fiscal stimulus in an already-growing economy with low unemployment, a scenario of radically different monetary policy from the Fed cannot be discounted, with potential negative impacts for EMs, especially for those that have financial weaknesses. Plus there are the perennial geopolitical risks from conflicts, trade wars and Chinese-imported financial instability.
Most bankers accept the view that Lula would pass pensions reform. The scenario that Brazil maintains and even accelerates its reformist agenda, securing a good cycle of positive growth rightly remains the favourite assumption. But there also real downside risks that could arise next year, almost regardless of who is president, and it should be noted that asset prices reflect pretty much a perfect outcome.
That is why Brazil's outlook is more nuanced than the positive, consensus view of a reformist president winning and immediately implementing an effective series of reforms.
Investors should not be overly confident about Brazil's 'impeachment put'.
Yes, it remains a reality. But remember, it is only activated when the country is quite clearly already heading in the wrong direction. While it unarguably prevented Brazil from descending further into the abyss, it did not prevent eight consecutive quarters of contraction.
This year's presidential elections should be interesting. But the first year of the next president's administration will be critical for the country.


There have been a number of driving forces behind the Bitcoin boom of 2017. These include core improvements, hard forks, and recognition by institutional exchanges such as CBOE, CME, and Nasdaq. The more mainstream it becomes the bigger the FOMO (fear of missing out), and those driving the momentum in 2018 will be millennials.
According to a report in the Independent, one in three millennials will be investing in cryptocurrencies by the end of next year. Millennials are defined by demographers and researchers as those born between the early 1980s to just after 2000. This generation grew up with technology so cryptocurrencies will be right up their alley.
Research by London based crypto exchange London Block Exchange revealed that 5% of those aged below 35 already have money invested in cryptocurrencies and a further 11% are planning to invest next year. The younger generation is signaling a shift from traditional investments such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds or even real estate. The study went on to reveal that a further 17% would seriously consider investing in cryptocurrencies by the end of 2018.
If this does happen it will make cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, plus their siblings, a more popular investment asset among this generation than shares, bonds, commodities or a second property. The study revealed that 24% of those surveyed regretted not buying into cryptocurrencies earlier after seeing their values soar throughout 2017.
Unsurprisingly 57% of those aged over 55 said that they are not interested in investing in cryptocurrencies. Without some technical knowledge and inclinations, it can be a steep learning curve that the majority of the older generation simply does not want to climb.
More investment next year means only one thing for crypto and that is good news for anyone that has got in this year.
Will you be investing in cryptocurrencies in 2018? Let us know in the comments section below.


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Суброгация ( — замена) — переход к лицу, исполнившему обязательство за другое лицо, прав кредитора.

Когда третье лицо, по соглашению или с кредитором, или с должником, уплачивает за последнего долг по обязательству, ему предоставляется вступить в право кредитора по этому обязательству. Суброгация — это фиктивная передача, в силу которой обязательство, погашенное третьим лицом, не уничтожается, но сохраняет свою силу относительно должника в пользу третьего лица, плательщика.
Кроме того, все законодательства признают, независимо от передачи по соглашению, переход в определённых случаях права по обязательству вследствие платежа, совершённого третьим лицом, в силу закона, без воли прежнего кредитора.

Суброгация особенно распространена в страховании, где понимается как переход к страховщику, выплатившему страховое возмещение, права требовать компенсацию с лица, ответственного за ущерб, причиненный страхователю в пределах возмещенного. Суброгацией называется один из частных случаев внедоговорной замены кредитора в обязательстве. С одной стороны, суброгацию следует отличать от замены кредитора в обязательстве согласно договору (цессия, факторинг, индоссамент), так как в отличие от договорных форм замены кредитора правовое основание суброгации — не в договоре, а в законе. С другой стороны, суброгацию следует отличать от регресса. На практике суброгация отличается от регресса тем, что при суброгации течение срока исковой давности заново не начинается, и должник может заявить о пропуске этого срока точно так же, как если бы вместо нового кредитора действовал старый.

Институт суброгации обрел широкое воплощение в Кодексе Наполеона. В частности, там предусмотрены такие случаи: 1) конкурсный кредитор последующей очереди оплачивает конкурсного кредитора предыдущей очереди; 2) приобретатель недвижимости выплачивает её цену держателю ипотеки (тут предметом суброгации есть полномочия ипотекодержателя); 3) наследник, оплативший со вступлением в наследство долги наследодателя.

В немецком гражданском праве частные формы суброгации не выговорены столь подробно. Этим объясняется малоизвестность указанного института русскому праву, формировавшемуся под огромным влиянием немецкой школы.

В российском гражданском праве суброгация особо упоминается в ст. 965 Гражданского кодекса Российской Федерации, однако случаи суброгации не исчерпываются этим указанием (например, предоставление с последующей суброгации указано в п. 5 ст. 313 и п. 1 ст. 365 Кодекса).

См. также
 Суброгация (законотворчество)
 Регресс (право)

Ссылки

Примечания

Страховые термины
Обязательственное право


Earlier this week, Rose shared how she finds it hard to maintain momentum with achieving her goals with the demands of family life weighing on her.
High Cholesterol, Diabetes, High Blood Pressure … these conditions are associated with Heart Disease … and they are hereditary in my family. As a child, I didn't think much about it. Sure, I knew that, unlike other families, we didn't eat butter or have a salt shaker on the table … and when we visited my grandparents, they had sugar-free candies for us. But I really didn't get the connection between our diet and our health.
As I grew older, doctors would suggest that I eat less meat because of my family's history. The idea that what I ate affected my health (or more importantly what I didn't eat) was fascinating … so I began to research the subject. What I found changed my life!
I began by searching the Internet for information on specific health issues … not just heart related issues but things like cancer and dementia as well. In almost every case, the advice was the same … eat more plant-based foods and less animal foods. I didn't really understand the whys and wherefores but one thing was becoming clear … increasing the amount of plant-based foods in our diet improves health.
Still, I had been raised eating meat. And frankly, I didn't think that I could give it up forever. My husband was interested in trying a vegan diet and convinced me to give it a go for 30 days. Well, a person can do anything for 30 days, right? It wasn't unthinkable so I agreed.
I can honestly say that I have never missed meat … or any animal products, for that matter. I've experimented with a wide range of foods and explored recipes from all over the world. Along the way, my health improved … cholesterol and blood pressure numbers went down and I remain diabetes-free. Even my allergies have improved! I'm not a doctor or a nutritionist … and I don't have facts to back up my theory … but I believe that switching to a vegan diet has been a key factor to my health. And truly, speaking as a person who isn't creative in the kitchen, it hasn't been hard … in fact, it's been delightful.
I'd like to share one of the few recipes which I actually created myself. I hope you'll give it … and meatless meals … a try!
Put the oil, onion, granulated garlic, minced garlic and 1 carrot into a heavy soup pot and saute' for 5 minutes.
Add 1 can of tomatoes, the Italian seasoning, Nutritional Yeast and cook, covered, for another 5-10 minutes.
Using a submersion blender (or carefully using a jar type blender), liquefy all the ingredients.
Add 1 can of tomatoes, the white beans, carrots, mushrooms and water to cover (1-2 tomato cans full). Cover and cook for approximately 2 hours.
Add pasta, salt & pepper to taste, and cook, covered, for about 10 minutes (or according to the pasta package instructions).
Serve with crusty, whole-grain bread for a delicious meal.
Cyndi (aka Small Footprints) lives in the beautiful mountains of western North Carolina. She is the author of Reduce Footprints, a blog about the easy ways to reduce our footprint on the earth, and host of weekly Eco-challenges called Change The World Wednesdays.
We're grateful to Philips who have sent us an Avance juicer so we can improve our diets and ensure we meet the guideline requirement for five portions of fruit and vegetables per day!
The recipe sounds lovely, and I have everything for it in my kitchen right now! Maybe I'll give it a try this week. I've been vegetarian for over four years now, and since I'm mildly lactose intolerant, don't eat a lot of dairy anyway. I do find that I've lost a little too much weight on a vegetarian diet, but I guess that's a mild complaint for the many other benefits of eating mostly plants.


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Miollis ist der Familienname folgender Personen:

 Bienvenu de Miollis (1753–1843), Bischof von Digne
 Sextius Alexandre François de Miollis (1759–1828), französischer Generalleutnant und zuletzt Kommandant von Metz


Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah) said in an interview with CNN on Monday that he doesn't care about a court filing by the Southern District of New York accusing Donald Trump of committing two crimes because he is a good president.
"I don't care, all I can say is he's doing a good job as president," Hatch told CNN before adding that he's not bothered by the filing because he doesn't think Trump was involved in crimes.
"All I can say is this, President Trump before he became president, that's another world. Since he's become president, this economy has charged ahead. We're all better off," Hatch added.
Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York released a court filing in their case against Trump's former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, last week. In it, prosecutors say that Cohen "acted in coordination with and at the direction of "individual 1 who later became president" in steering payments to silence a pair of women, Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, about alleged affairs.
Despite his cooperation with investigators, prosecutors with the Southern District of New York recommended a "substantial" prison sentence for Cohen for alleged federal crimes, which include bank and tax fraud.
RELATED: 'Collusion!': Conservative Columnist Just Hit The Bullseye By Putting Trump At The Crime Scene.


Light up your day! Light-Up detects your facial emotions and uses colours with LED light patterns to boost your mood.
Its like a scavenger hunt for colors. Seek a color in your environment and get points for how close you get.
Targeted at students watching each other's BACs, the app tracks, analyzes, and notifies a buddy about alcohol use.
Ever wonder where your cold came from? Now you geographically track symptoms before they arrive!
Mobile application that brings modern safety features to older vehicles through machine learning.
Dis calendar is off the chain hook!
PurpleReign Consultant Care notifies all the right people with big picture information about a consultant's career.


Jennifer joined our classes on the Gold Coast in 2012.
Prior to this she has only been enrolled in a local Drawing Class for a short time.
Her preferred subject is to paint Portraits, using Acrylics and Oils.


Find out about the different options for working out provisional tax and choose the best option for you.
Working out provisional tax using the standard, estimation or ratio options involves some judgement. You're trying to work out an amount that will closely match the residual income tax (RIT) you expect for the following year. That way, when you complete your income tax return and deduct your provisional tax, you should only have a small amount of end-of-year tax left to pay. You may even receive a refund.
If you're using the accounting income method (AIM), your accounting software will work out your payments for you. Payments are worked out based on the profit your business has made in that payment period.
Residual income tax (RIT) is the amount of income tax you pay for the year, less any PAYE and other tax credits you may be entitled to, except for Working for Families Tax Credits.
Sending in your first AIM statement of activity on or before the first instalment due date tells us you've chosen AIM for the full tax year. You can't switch to AIM from another option during the year.
If you're a new business (or new to paying provisional tax) you can choose AIM any time before your first payment is due.
We'll use the standard option unless you choose otherwise.
The standard option is useful if your income is steady or increases over the next year.
your residual income from two years ago + 10% (only if you haven't filed last year's return yet).
You'll usually pay three instalments, however if you're registered for GST and file six-monthly GST returns you'll only pay two instalments.
Make sure you pay on time to avoid late payment penalties and/or interest.
You can change from the standard option to the estimation option at any time, but you can't change to the ratio option or AIM during the same tax year.
Megan's income has been steady over the last few years. When she files her 2016 income tax return, she uses the standard option to work out her provisional tax for 2017.
Megan can deduct the provisional tax she pays during the year from her 2017 residual income tax.
If your income tax year ends on 31 March you'd usually need to file your income tax return by 7 July (unless you have a tax agent).
You'll know how much provisional tax you'll need to pay once you've filed your return, and you'll have time to prepare for your first instalment on the 28 August due date.
If you have an extension of time to file your income tax return, your first provisional tax payment may be due before you've filed your income tax return. In this situation, your provisional tax will be your residual income tax from two years ago plus 10%.
Our Provisional tax guide (IR289) shows you how to do these "catch-up" calculations.
you have accounting software or want to start using accounting software.
If you're using AIM you don't pay provisional tax until your business starts making a profit. As long as you make your payments in full and on time, there is no exposure to use-of-money interest. If your business makes a loss you can get your refund of overpaid provisional tax straightaway rather than waiting until the end of the year.
Accounting software works out your AIM profit.
Your profit is taxed at your individual rate or company rate.
The amount of tax is your provisional tax payment.
Masha updates her company's accounting software with her sales and other adjustments. She files GST every two months, so her software works out her provisional payment based on a two-monthly period.
Your statement of activity will let us know if you've overpaid your provisional tax for the year.
A refund can be sent to you straightaway - you won't need to file an Annual imputation return (IR4J) or wait until the end of the year to get the refund.
If you miss two statements of activity, we'll contact you to make sure there hasn't been a misunderstanding or system error. If you continue to miss filing your statement of activity you may be moved from AIM to the estimation option. This may expose you to use-of-money interest.
didn't have to pay provisional tax.
We'll work out the interest charges once your income tax return has been filed (if you've underpaid or overpaid by $100 or less, we don't charge interest). If you've paid more provisional tax than you needed to, we may pay interest to you. However, not everyone will pay or receive interest.
If you use the ratio option you won't pay (or receive) interest on your provisional tax instalments, but you may on your residual income tax.
If you use AIM, you won't be charged interest or penalties - as long as you pay what your software tells you to and when. If you owe tax once you've filed your return, you won't be charged interest on any residual income tax as long as you pay by the due date.
Remember to deduct the provisional tax you've already paid when you work out your tax to pay at the end of the year.
The estimation option is useful if you know your income will decrease over the next year.
Add up all the taxable income you expect to receive next year.
work out the tax on this figure.
Deduct any PAYE and other income tax credits you'll be entitled to.
The result is your estimated residual income tax and this is your provisional tax for the year.
Jackson expects his income to drop next year due to a downturn in his industry. When he files his 2016 income tax return, he uses the estimation option to work out his provisional tax for 2017.
Jackson can deduct the provisional tax he pays during the year from his 2017 residual income tax.
You could be charged a penalty if your provisional tax estimation ends up being unreasonably low compared with your actual end-of-year tax to pay.
Avoid a penalty by keeping an eye on your income during the year. You should make a new estimate if it looks like your estimation will be too low. You can re-estimate as often as you like, right up to the date of the final instalment.
The ratio option is useful if your income tends to vary or you have seasonal income. You need to let us know you want to use this option before the beginning of the income tax year.
Only provisional tax payers registered for GST who file one-monthly or two-monthly returns can use the ratio option.
Find out if you meet the requirements in our Understanding the ratio option section.
We work out your ratio percentage by dividing your residual income tax for the last tax year by your total GST taxable supplies for the same year.
If last year's figures aren't available, we base the ratio on the residual income tax and total GST taxable figures from the previous year.
You then multiply this ratio percentage by your GST taxable supplies for the previous two months.
The result is your provisional tax for the year.
You'll make your provisional tax payments every two months along with your GST returns.
after the first provisional tax instalment date, you're required to use the estimation option to work out your provisional tax for the remainder of the year.
Oliver is a GST registered orchardist with income that varies during the year. He decides the ratio option will be the best way to pay his 2017 provisional tax, so he applies to use it before the end of his 2016 income tax year.
We work out a ratio for Oliver to use, based on his residual income tax and his GST taxable supplies.
When Oliver completes his two-monthly GST returns, he applies the ratio to his taxable supplies. The amounts worked out are his instalments of provisional tax.
Oliver makes provisional tax instalments every two months along with his GST returns. He does this through myIR Secure Online Services.
Oliver can deduct the provisional tax he pays during the year from his 2017 residual income tax.


The Resource Centre is here to help you find the services you need. Call us at 604.885.4088. Or drop by. The contact page includes hours of operation and our location.
Click HERE for a full listing of service providers on the Sunshine Coast. Use the drop down menu to search by subject.
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Need to find a physician or other health care professional? Go to Fetch Sunshine Coast.
For 24/7 information and referral to local community, social, or government services dial 2-1-1 or visit bc211.
Contact the Community Resource Centre to find out. We serve the Sunshine Coast of BC.
Receive our email Newsletter with updates about upcoming events, services available on the Sunshine Coast, and success stories from your community.


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Boarding Schools for Boys Oklahoma
Home Boarding Schools for Boys Boarding Schools for Boys Oklahoma
Boarding Schools in Oklahoma
WinGate Wilderness Therapy is a leading provider of Wilderness programs for struggling teens from Oklahoma. Unlike traditional Boarding Schools, WinGate takes a more therapeutic approach to healing; we not only allow teens to benefit from substance abuse treatment and recovery, but we also give them the opportunity to learn important life skills as they re-build themselves both mentally and physically in the outdoors.
Additionally, while WinGate Wilderness Therapy may be located outside Oklahoma, it is highly recommended that teens with any form of addiction or mental health issues are provided treatment away from unsupportive peers and negative influences. For this reason, seeking treatment out of state is ideal, and as a result, Wingate has made it our priority to accept troubled teens from all areas of the country.
Whether addiction is the primary problem or whether there are other behavioral health issues, the programs like those which Wingate provides, have proven time and again to deliver successfully significant long-lasting results. Based on the philosophies of the Arbinger Institute, Wingate's approach to therapeutic intervention is focused on helping struggling individuals make and sustain, a deeper level of change; the kind of change that is accomplished through Wingate's Strength-Based/Natural Consequence model.
As a program that encourages cooperation rather than confrontation, WinGate allows struggling teens to build their strengths and achieve more peaceful hearts by using nature to help them work with other teens to achieve common goals. This is most often referred to as adventure therapy when it occurs through wilderness programs.
However, although Wilderness therapy participants are encouraged to find their own path toward internal balance in the outdoors, there are strict rules and consequences for when rules are broken. Thus, students inevitably change their behavior willingly and on their own, receiving positive consequences for positive actions. It takes more than boarding school to produce the kind of change that will give teens the tools they need for permanent sobriety, and Oklahoma troubled teens desperately need the right kind of help.
Call WinGate Wilderness Therapy now and find out just what kind of dramatic and positive changes struggling teens are capable of. Our consultants are available to answer any questions. Call (800) 560-1599 today!
Oklahoma Boarding Schools for Boys
Treating extreme substance abuse problems of troubled teen boys often comes down to taking drastic action. However, while parents of struggling teens may find themselves searching for Oklahoma boarding schools for boys, these schools aren't necessarily the solution. In fact, they rarely are; because, although they may provide structure and education, they fail to treat the underlying problems that have caused teen boys to exhibit negative behaviors in the first place. When parents need to find help for their struggling teens, it's wilderness programs like that of WinGate Wilderness Therapy, that garner the most successful and enduring results.
As an affiliated member of National Association of Therapeutic Schools and Programs, WinGate is a truly therapeutic environment which focuses on healing and creating permanent change of the "heart," rather than the temporary changes results from a short-term change of scenery or daily structure. We take our students and assess them on an individual level, providing them with the type of therapy, interaction, and activities that will build the foundation for optimal success.
In addition, when teens are struggling with addiction or substance abuse, they are introduced to the 12 steps of AA, as well as be given the opportunity to form more positive behaviors and habits and develop the life skills which will ultimately enable a new, sober way of living.
The adventure therapy programs that WinGate provides have changed the lives of many troubled teen boys, even when they didn't want – or think – they could change. For any parent who believes their troubled teen boy is finally in need of professional help, it's not Oklahoma boarding schools that will do it, but a true therapeutic program like WinGate Wilderness Therapy, which will finally facilitate significant change.
Boys Boarding School Alternative
Boarding schools in Oklahoma aren't the only choice for parents of struggling teens. In fact, whether the problem stems from ongoing mental health or behavioral issues, or whether substance abuse or addiction has taken over, finding an alternative that can provide a thorough, therapeutic environment is nearly always a better option. Wingate Wildness Therapy is such a place, and as leading boys boarding school alternative, the results we achieve are designed to provide permanent and meaningful change in each of our student's lives.
Wingate has dedicated our entire existence to helping struggling teens re-build their lives and ways of thinking. Through our wilderness therapy programs and the use of nature and the outdoors, we not only help struggling teens change their behavior, but we strategically implement tasks and team-building behaviors which improve a number of areas in each teen's life.
These improvements aren't just limited to academic performance and moderate behavior modification either, we also include the development of better communication skills, impulse control, self-efficacy, life skills development, and improved self-esteem. There's no doubt that Oklahoma boarding schools have their place in society. Yet, when it comes to additional challenges – like those which come through addiction and behavioral or mental health problems – a boarding school just isn't enough.
Wilderness therapy programs have been widely recognized as successful means of implementing positive change for all types of issues in troubled teens, and whether it's due to substance abuse, depression, struggles with Add or ADHD, sexual promiscuity, anxiety, defiance, academic failure, or any other problem, WinGate Wilderness is worth considering when parents care about the long-term health of their child.
Wingate Wilderness Therapy is committed to providing our students with permanent, lasting change. Our consultants are available to guide and coach parents of troubled teens and help them determine which kind of help is the right kind of help for their teen.
Call (800) 560-1599, today, and find out how WinGate's program heals.
National Resources for Parents and Teens:
National Council on Alcoholism and Drug Dependence (NCADD) - The Role That Parents Play is Key! As kids get older and are introduced to drugs and alcohol, parents are faced with new challenges that require increased attention and focus. Fortunately, parents have a lot of influence over the decisions that their kids make. Simply having an honest conversation about the adverse effects of drugs and alcohol can have a tremendous impact on the lives of their children. In fact, research shows that kids who talk to their parents about the dangers of drug and alcohol use are 50% less likely to use these substances.
Speak Up About The Things That Matter To You
Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. –Martin Luther King Jr.
Always Look For New Opportunities
Do what you can, where you are, with what you have. –Teddy Roosevelt
Choose a City Page in OK
Bartlesville (OK)
Broken Arrow (OK)
Edmund (OK)
Enid (OK)
Lawton (OK)
Midwest City (OK)
Moore (OK)
Muskogee (OK)
Oklahoma City (OK)
Petersburg (OK)
Stillwater (OK)
Tulsa (OK)
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