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I would like to see the building's you build on the battle map and be able to use them for cover. Maybe you could patch that in or include it in IG 2.
Also the Cannon's range is very short and not enough damage, and I don't waste time building them. I build INF and Cav only. Cav will ride around the flank of the enemy stay hidden then I engage my INF, and then attack the enemy arty with my Cav it works every time then hit the enemy from the rear with my Cav. But if cannon would have more range, and or firepower I would have to change my tactics a bit, as the cannon would rip my INF apart.
Sea battles are fun also. I have one suggestion though and that is your ships run off the map and you loss the battle even if your winning it. I would like to see some kind of boundaries like in the land battles, no retreat no surrender.
Oh and I love the way the men fight to the last man.
Its not that hard to increase cannon range but yes it totally changes the game tactics-critical to wipeout cannon first....I tried actual range 1000-2000m and found it almost unplayable -also cant hit anything for several hundred metres directly in front of cannon when have long range.i dropped range then from half to quarter actual values and I like these ranges now.Chek for my other posts about this and ICANUS has a mod to do the job you want.....just read up about it all on the mod forum!


Metcheck provides high detail weather forecasts for virtually every crag and climbing location around the country. We also provide forecasts for climbing clubs and locations.
Postman Pat is a British stop-motion animated children's television series first produced by Woodland Animations.It is aimed at pre-school children, and concerns the adventures of Pat Clifton, a postman in the fictional village of Greendale (inspired by the real valley of Longsleddale in Cumbria).. Postman Pat's first 13-episode season was screened on BBC1 between 1981 and 1982.
If ever there was a clear indication if how good we have become, it was yesterdauy in the 4 minutes added time at the end of the game. A free kichk was awarded to Sheffield, their midfielder picked the ball up, walked a good 10 paces forwards from the place of the free kick and put his hand behind his back and dropped the ball.


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Comment on "Performability analysis: a new algorithm"
The paper "Performability Analysis: A New Algorithm" describes an algorithm for computing the complementary distribution of the accumulated reward over an interval of time in a homogeneous Markov process. In this comment, we show that in two particular cases, one of which is quite frequent, small modifications of the algorithm may reduce significantly its storage complexity.
CitationSuñe, V. [et al.]. Comment on "Performability analysis: a new algorithm". "IEEE transactions on computers", Gener 2010, vol. 59, núm. 1, p. 137-138.


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Intrado Corporation is an innovative, cloud-based, global technology partner to clients around the world. Our solutions connect people and organizations at the right time and in the right ways, making those mission-critical connections more relevant, engaging and actionable – turning Information to Insight.
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We are dedicated to delivering and improving upon new channels, new capabilities and new choices for how businesses and consumers collaborate, connect and transact. Our clients include Fortune 1000 companies, along with small and medium enterprises in a variety of industries. We have sales and/or operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and South America.
The Board of Directors of Intrado Corporation (the "Company") sets high standards for the Company's employees, officers and directors. Implicit in this philosophy is the importance of sound corporate governance. It is the duty of the Board of Directors to serve as a prudent fiduciary for shareholders and to oversee the management of the Company's business. To fulfill its responsibilities and to discharge its duty, the Board of Directors follows the procedures and standards that are set forth in these guidelines. These guidelines are subject to modification from time to time as the Board of Directors deems appropriate in the best interests of the Company or as required by applicable laws and regulations.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Brexit nightmare is coming true for business. It needs a plan NOW
by Charles Riley @CRrileyCNN July 6, 2018: 7:16 AM ET
Brits are sick and tired of Brexit
After months of holding back, businesses are going public with stark warnings about what could go wrong if the United Kingdom makes a mess of Brexit.
Companies with tens of thousands of British workers have spelled out the potential damage to their business, turning up the heat on the UK government as it struggles to agree a plan for trade with the European Union.
The latest siren comes from Jaguar Land Rover, which said Thursday that a bad deal would jeopardize £80 billion ($106 billion) in planned investment and slash its profits by £1.2 billion ($1.6 billion) a year.
BMW (BMWYY) and Airbus (EADSF) have also issued warnings in recent days. But Jaguar Land Rover, the UK's biggest carmaker with 40,000 employees, is the first major company to put a specific figure on the potential hit to profits of new trade barriers with the European Union.
Businesses and industry groups have long complained about uncertainty over the government's plans, but their interventions have grown more insistent as the Brexit clock ticks down and Prime Minister Theresa May brings her divided cabinet together for a vital meeting.
"The increasingly vocal nature of the warnings reflects rising frustration," said David Bailey, an automotive expert at Aston Business School. "They are pulling their hair out over the lack of clarity from the government."
Related: Banks are not ready for Brexit, says top regulator
The government summit, which will be held Friday at a country retreat, has been billed as the last chance for May to unite warring factions within her party and produce a plan that can be presented to EU officials.
There are now just nine months to go before Britain leaves the European Union, and negotiations must move quickly if the United Kingdom is to secure a trade deal. Britain has no assurance yet that it will be able to continue to export goods to its biggest market without border checks or tariffs.
Car manufacturers, which rely on complex international supply chains, are worried that Brexit will lead to delays at the borders. About 45% of the cars made in Britain are exported to the European Union.
Factories and jobs could go
BMW, which makes the iconic Mini at a factory near Oxford, warned last week that if parts coming into the United Kingdom are delayed at the border, plants would close.
Paul Drechsler, president of the Confederation of British Industry, has warned that Britain's car industry could be wiped out if the country leaves the customs union that allows EU nations to function as a single trading area.
"If we do not have a customs union, there are sectors of manufacturing society in the United Kingdom which risk becoming extinct," he said in June. "That is the reality."
The Japanese government has already made clear that its companies could move their business elsewhere in Europe following Brexit. Toyota (TM), Nissan (NSANF) and Honda (HMC) are all heavily invested in the United Kingdom.
How Brexit could end flights in and out of the UK
Related: Businesses have 22 Brexit questions no one can answer
It's not just cars. Airbus (EADSF) said last month that a UK exit without a deal on trading arrangements with the European Union would be "catastrophic," throwing its production into chaos and threatening its future in the country.
It makes wings for all its commercial aircraft in the United Kingdom, employing 15,000 people.
Planes may be grounded
Paul Everitt, CEO of aerospace and defense industry group ADS, warned Thursday that planes could lose their safety certifications when Brexit takes effect.
"Our worst case scenario is that aircraft will not fly," he said. "It is an extreme situation."
Despite the apocalyptic warnings, there is still a major gulf between what business wants and May's approach to Brexit.
Jaguar Land Rover said Thursday that it must have "tariff and customs-free access to trade and talent with no change to current EU regulations," an outcome that would break several red lines May has said she will not cross in negotiations with the European Union.
Yet it's a case that businesses continue to make.
"Our message to government is that until it can demonstrate exactly how a new model for customs and trade with the EU can replicate the benefits we currently enjoy, don't change it," Mike Hawes, the CEO of the The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders, said last month.
If automakers don't get what they need, Bailey said they could shutter UK factories within a few years.
"The government has got to come up with a plan that business can work with, and they have to do it quickly," he said.
-- Michael Kaplan contributed reporting.
CNNMoney (London) First published July 5, 2018: 11:13 AM ET


Bath and Bodyworks is offering a great coupon to help you get $10 off your $30 purchase. The coupon is good in-store and online as well. Use coupon code EXTRA10 when shopping online to receive discount. Coupon is valid through 7/7/2013.
Another coupon available is this one for 20% off your purchase at The Children's Place. This coupon can be used both in-store and online too. Use coupon code HAPPY4TH when shopping online to receive discount. Coupon is valid through 7/8/2013.


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Center Point Clinical Services LLC ("Center Point") is a specialty and "siteless", contract research organization (CRO) that helps pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical device companies successfully reach their regulatory and commercialization goals in less time and at a lower cost than competitors.
The company offers two premier signature solutions. The first is the Clinical Trials Research Pharmacist (CTRP®) program, which uses licensed and specially trained pharmacists to communicate with patients. All pharmacists have a specialty in one or more of the following: clinical research, commercial prescriptions, over the counter (supplements) and exercise. This model is designed to better service our clinical trial partners by returning to the trusted patient centricity model that the practice of pharmacy was founded upon and providing the most comprehensive and thoughtful data that includes not only the tangible but also the nontangible, including the patient's emotional aspects. Center Point is the only CRO that offers this unique and effective service. The CTRP solution has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to improve patient medication and device compliance, support patient retention, and enhance overall study outcomes.
The second solution includes a series of signature programs that further help pave the way to regulatory approval and commercialization. These include: supply chain logistics of medications, devices and supplements as well as a series of practical solutions intended to support virtual-focused trials, including patient recruitment, telehealth, and supporting technology.
The company operates across the U.S. and partners internationally.
Center Point's signature CTRP program was initiated by Mr. Gerald Finken, the former CEO and also founder of CSM Inc., a clinical supplies company. He had a clear vision of how CTRP could fill a clearly unmet industry need. Mr. Finken understood that not only are patients at the center point of any clinical research initiative but also that CTRPs should be strategically positioned at the center point of study communication. These are the reasons for the CTRP solution's impressive track record to date, as well as why Mr. Finken established the program under his new company, thoughtfully named Center Point Clinical Services. Since its inception, CTRP has serviced clients in 27 Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials and nutraceutical field studies, and has managed more than 30,000 patient contacts.
Center Point operates by the philosophy set forth by Mr. Finken, who currently serves as the company's CEO and chairman. Only licensed, specially trained CTRPs communicate with the patients, the clinical sites, the CRO, and the study sponsor. Center Point is also the only CRO to implement and execute this communication model, utilizing a patent-pending process. This process has proven time and again to promote the real-time exchange of information and to advance the goals of a study sponsor. The success of CTRP communication has also led to the introduction and offering of other important services and solutions, all designed to enable partners to achieve their regulatory and commercialization objectives in a timely and cost-effective manner.
A Company Sponsoring a Small OTC Trial in the U.S.


This page presents the Google satellite map (zoomable and browsable) of Racehorse River in North Auckland district in New Zealand.
Geographical coordinates are -35.3322 and 174.3150 and its feature type is Stream. More information below.


Watch LEGO Jurassic World: The Indominus Escape (2016) full movie online.
Synopsis: Jurassic park founder, Simon Masrani, recruits his trusted scientists Claire and Dr. Wu to help create an amazing dino-hybrid called the Indominus Rex. But, when it escapes, they look to rugged dinosaur trainer, Owen Grady, to save the day.
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Home » Tony Rossi
Managing Partner, Springfield
Sangamo Club, Member
tony@govnavigationgroup.com
Anthony Rossi joined the firm as Managing Partner in GNG's Springfield office in July 2007. Tony brings extensive knowledge of the legislative process and executive branch operations, as well as 20 years of relationships with individuals serving in all branches of government. He worked for Speaker of the House, Michael J. Madigan, for 16 years. There he acted as a research and appropriations analyst, Director of the Research and Appropriations Staff and Clerk of the Illinois House of Representatives.
Tony joined former Governor Rod Blagojevich's administration in 2003 when he was appointed Executive Director of the Capital Development Board. In early 2005, he moved to the Governor's Office as a Deputy Chief of Staff. In that capacity, Tony oversaw the operations of many state agencies and served as a key advisor to the governor on legislative initiatives and budget preparation and implementation.
During his tenure as Chief Clerk of the House under Speaker Madigan, Tony was the Chief Administrative Officer for the House of Representatives and acted as a liaison between 10 legislative commissions and democratic leadership. As Director of the Research and Appropriations Staff, he briefed and advised the Speaker and members of the General Assembly on implications of substantive and appropriations legislation, drafted legislative proposals, prepared research on proposed legislation, and represented the Speaker in legislative and executive meetings. More recently, as a Deputy Chief of Staff to the Governor, Tony was a key advisor to the Governor on the legislative process, negotiated legislative initiatives and played a significant role in budget preparation and implementation


Welcome to the third Student Project Saturday where we share reader projects that have been submitted throughout the previous week on our Facebook page.
Deborah shared this really unique Waterfall Birthday Card with us. Be sure to check out her blog DebWayCreations for more pictures and details on how she made it.
Drisana made this adorable decoration - including lettering, circles, and star cuts - for a Mickey themed birthday.
Amy made this custom-made shirt. "I took a jpg that my friend designed and converted it into a cutable shape and layered the heat transfer material."
Kathy traced some photos to create these beautiful images. "These are for a friend whose husband passed away last November. Celebrating his birthday March 27 with his wife and two daughters"
Jamie tells us she's been practicing lining up her offset layers. Well done on the water bottles!
Tiffany shared this wood family sign.
Traci made the numbers out of black vinyl for her children's growth board!
Jamie shared this beautiful memorial decal. "A decal I made for a family who recently lost their daughter I actually cried while making it! I can't imagine the pain of losing a child!"
Robin shared this heart box card she created. She designed the card and used the Bunnies by Quietfire Design. Be sure to check out her blog Rainbow Weaves.


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BP44: Jesse Thielke, 2016 U.S. Olympian in Greco-Roman
by Jason Bryant | Jun 8, 2016 | Bonus Points | 0 comments
Episode 44 of Bonus Points features Jesse Thielke, 2016 U.S. Olympic Team member at 59 kg/130 lbs. in Greco-Roman wrestling
Thielke won the 2016 U.S. Olympic Team Trials held in Iowa City, Iowa on April 9 with wins over Jermaine Hodge, Spenser Mango and Ildar Hafizov. The 59 kg weight class was not qualified for the U.S. to compete at the Olympic Games at the time of Thielke's victory in Iowa City.
In order to solidify his position at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thielke earned a silver medal at the 2nd World Olympic Games Qualifier in Istanbul, Turkey.
Prior to his Olympic run, Thielke was a member of the 2013 U.S. World Team that competed at the 2013 World Championships in Budapest, Hungary where finished in eighth place. He also won a Junior World bronze medal in 2012.
Topics of discussion include Thielke's journey to an Olympic berth, his plan of attack for the Olympic Games, how to be successful in Greco-Roman wrestling and more.
Follow USA Wrestling Bonus Points Ep. 44 guest Jesse Thielke on Twitter at @thielke_smooth and follow show host Richard Immel at @Richard_Immel.
Listen to previous episodes of the show on the USA Wrestling Bonus Points Archives or by subscribing on your favorite podcast listening application.


The definitive reference for the Verilog HDL is IEEE Std 1364-1995. This standard is known as the IEEE Verilog® HDL language reference manual ( LRM ) and the 1995 version is referred to here as the 95 LRM [IEEE 1364-1995]. 1 Verilog is a registered trademark of Cadence Design Systems and Verilog-XL is a commercial simulator.
1. IEEE Std 1364-1995, Copyright © 1995. IEEE. All rights reserved. The Verilog HDL syntax section in this appendix is reprinted from the IEEE copyright material with permission.


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The Cassini-Huygens Visit to Saturn: An Historic Mission to the Ringed Planet
by Michael Meltzer
Aeronautics & Astronautics
Science > Earth Sciences > Geology
Cassini-Huygens was the most ambitious and successful space journey ever launched to the outer Solar System. This book examines all aspects of the journey: its conception and planning; the lengthy political processes needed to make it a reality; the engineering and development required to build the spacecraft; its 2.2-billion mile journey from Earth to the Ringed Planet and the amazing discoveries from the mission. The author traces how the visions of a few brilliant scientists matured, gained popularity and eventually ... Read More
Cassini-Huygens was the most ambitious and successful space journey ever launched to the outer Solar System. This book examines all aspects of the journey: its conception and planning; the lengthy political processes needed to make it a reality; the engineering and development required to build the spacecraft; its 2.2-billion mile journey from Earth to the Ringed Planet and the amazing discoveries from the mission. The author traces how the visions of a few brilliant scientists matured, gained popularity and eventually became a reality. Innovative technical leaps were necessary to assemble such a multifaceted spacecraft and reliably operate it while it orbited a planet so far from our own. The Cassini-Huygens spacecraft design evolved from other deep space efforts, most notably the Galileo mission to Jupiter, enabling the voluminous, paradigm-shifting scientific data collected by the spacecraft. Some of these discoveries are absolute gems. A small satellite that scientists once thought of as a dead piece of rock turned out to contain a warm underground sea that could conceivably harbor life. And we now know that hiding under the mist of Saturn's largest moon, Titan, is a world with lakes, fluvial channels, and dunes hauntingly reminiscent of those on our own planet, except that on Titan, it's not water that fills those lakes but hydrocarbons. These and other breakthroughs illustrate why the Cassini-Huygens mission will be remembered as one of greatest voyages of discovery ever made. Read Less
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When Biospheres Collide: A History of Nasa's Planetary Protection Programs - Scholar's Choice Edition


text:
export GA_250='../../../../../DATA/ELEVATION/GA250m/ER_Mapper_ers/ausbath_09_v4_ex_ex.ers'

# The extent is 80 deg lon x 52 deg lat, so we multiply those by 60 to get the
# desired grid size (1 arc minute)
gdal_translate -outsize 4800 3120 -co COMPRESS=DEFLATE $GA_250 GA_250_1mx1m.tif

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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Blaming the horizon, and shouting at the stars.
Oh, I was so afraid but I've come so far.
But you take your chances, if you only learn how.
Oh, I was so alone I'm scattered and small.
Circumstances will sometimes let you down, put you down and try to keep you down, but you do not have to accept that sentence, not for too long anyway. The world is vast and when you find yourself scattered and small in this big world, all it means is that you are being asked to learn how to find the endless little places, passions, possibilities and people in which you can find your shelter. You take your chances.
But you take your chances, if you only learn how."


Denis Wick is proud to sponsor the Denis Wick Canadian Wind Orchestra, who will be performing in Toronto this May. Chris Gongos, the Principal Horn of the Toronto Symphony Orchestra, will be the guest soloist for their concert on Friday 18th May at the Isabel Bader Theatre at the University of Toronto. He will performing a work by one of Canada's leading composers for wind instruments, Elizabeth Raum's 'Sherwood Legend' for Horn and Band. A great Canadian soloist playing a beautiful Canadian work with lots of talented young Canadian players!


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Still Austin Whiskey Co.
All Our Spirits
Still Austin Gin
New Make Whiskey
Daydreamer Whiskey
Mother Pepper Whiskey
Tours + More
Still Austin Whiskey Co. on Instagram
Still Austin Whiskey Co. on Facebook
Still Austin Whiskey Co. on Twitter
Bourbon Whiskey: Coming Oh-So-Very Soon
On May 11th, we'll unveil our first Bourbon to the world.
To craft our Bourbon Whiskey, we've incorporated the Abruzzi and Brassetto rye varieties along with Elbon. To infuse the spirits with a sense of home, we distill with the same white corn you'll find in Austin's tortillas. And to protect these flavors, we do everything in-house, from grain to glass and the élevage process. The result? A friendly bourbon, a confident bourbon, a bourbon with creativity and integrity. This is true bourbon whiskey, made the Austin way.
Mash bill
70% Non-GMO white corn, 25% rye and 5% malted barley.
From our Master Blender, Nancy Fraley: "Delightfully sweet aromas shine through on the initial nose, followed by waves of browned butter with baking spices such as cinnamon, allspice, and clove. The alcohol is soft and round on the palate, with a surprisingly long finish, depth, and finesse. Samples from all 24 bourbon barrels were found to be of excellent quality, with no faults whatsoever."
How Still Austin makes Bourbon Whiskey
We "raise" our barrels from birth to maturity, using a labor-intensive philosophy known as élevage, which weds the bourbon to our local climate while maintaining the spirit's connection to its original grains. Focusing on flavor and balance, the meticulous practice of élevage uses a slow-water reduction technique to extract flavors from charred oak. While the barrels endure the wild swings of Texas weather, we add a little water each month to bring more "mature" notes, like vanilla and caramel to the forefront.
Where to find our Bourbon
As of now, due to the meticulous process required to distill and mature our Bourbon, once released this Spring this spirit will only be available in our tasting room and at a very few select stores, bars and restaurants throughout the Austin area. Don't worry, we have plans to launch nationally—because why should the rest of the country be locked out of heaven?
Josh Row: The artist behind the label
Native Austinite Josh Row got into graphic design at a young age, when he fell in love with the illustrations on his skateboard decks. These days, he's focused on creating innovative designs and painting murals for his independent venture, Showgoat Mural Works. When he's not designing murals and whiskey labels, Josh serves as co-owner and design director for No-Comply skate shop in Austin.
440 East St. Elmo Road
Mon-Tue: Closed
Wed-Thu: 3:00pm - 9:00pm
Fri-Sat: 12:00pm - 10:00pm
Distillery Tour Times
Mon & Tue: By Appt. Only
Wed & Thu: 5pm, 7pm
Fri & Sat: 1pm, 3pm, 5pm, 7pm
Sunday: 1pm, 3pm, 5pm
© 2019 Still Austin Whiskey Co.
Website by Alex Wright Web Design + SEO
You must verify that you are 21 years of age or older to enter this site.
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My Three have had a very busy school holiday. Whilst they have been off school they have been to the seaside, had their brother from Ireland stay and they have been busy enjoying the following items.
James has loved wearing his new Vtech Smart watch during the Summe holidays. He has taken it with us to the seaside and has worn it in the garden whilst playing on his bike and with our dogs. One of the features he really likes is the camera – he has been taking photos and videoes and then editing them with fun effects. Before breaking up from school for summer he has been learning to tell the time, the watch has both 3D digital and analogue clock faces so he has been telling everyone the time when asked. In a moment of boredom, he has also had 8 games to play on. The watch has many functions including a calculator, calendar, alarm, stop watch, pedometer, voice recorder and much more – kids can even download more from the special app store.
Pass the Pigs – with its travel case and cute dice pigs, it's the ideal family entertainment, whether indoor or on the go!
Giant Pass the Pigs – play with adorable inflatable pigs – great for gardens, parks or inside on the floor play – plus doubles up as pool inflatables.
It has to be said that we have had a lot of rubbish weather for much of the holidays (the weather is already picking up in anticipation of the boys going back to school next week). This is when we like to play board games or complete jigsaw puzzles together. One puzzle we have completed is the 1000 piece Fantasia Jigsaw Puzzle from Ravensburger. The puzzle was a great way to relax and spend time as a family. We worked together as a team to complete the puzzle. Ravensburger jigsaws are known for their outstanding quality and their unique puzzle pieces. I like that they have an anti-glare coating so that our eyes aren't strained whilst we are completing the puzzle.This jigsaw is aimed at children and adults but as we worked together we found the puzzle easy to complete.
As we've already said the weather hasn't been that great during the holidays, but this has given My Three the chance to watch some films and cartoons on Amazon Prime Video ( free as we are Prime Subscribers). We have watched lots of films this holiday but our favourites by far have been The BFG, The Lego Movie, The Cat in the Hat, Spk Kids and one of my favourite's Charlotte's Web. I also noticed lots of festive themed films are available to watch and although it's far too early for us to be watching them just yet we already have a list ready and waiting for the 1st of December.
Who doesn't enjoy a bag of sweets whilst watching their favourite films at the weekend? The newest editions from Haribo have been released to coincide with the cinema release of the latest Smurfs film.


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Review & Giveaway: The London Restoration by Rachel McMillan
The London Restoration by Rachel McMillan
I've been wanting to read a Rachel McMillan book for a while so I was super excited to pick up The London Restoration! That cover has been slaying me for months! Isn't it gorgeous!?
Another reviewer said that The London Restoration is McMillan's "love letter to London and it's churches", and I can't think of a better way to describe it than that!
Set in 1945 the book starts with Diana Somerville being in Vienna after the war. Destruction has ravaged the once beautiful city. Diana is there doing work as a code-breaker and decoding ciphers for MI6 with fellow agent Simon Barre. The war is over but they are on the hunt for a Soviet agent named "Eternity" who is rumored to have a file that could start a new war.
Diana returns to London and to her husband Brent, who she hasn't seen since they married right before the start of the war. All of that time apart has made for an awkward reunion. She keeps her war-time job a secret from him and he doesn't share what he went through during the war. They do have a shared love of Architecture, particularly of churches. I looooved the parts where they spoke about the architecture - it was fascinating!
Now that Diana is back in London she is tasked with monitoring the churches in the city to try and find the Soviet agent "Eternity" who may be meeting with someone at one of the locations. Tired of lying to her husband she decides to bring him into the mission.
The book goes back in time to when Diana and Brent meet and what they both experienced during the war. The scenes at Bletchley Park with Simon and Sophie Villers were my favorite!
Rachel also includes some fabulous historical notes at the beginning of the novel that I greatly enjoyed.
The London Restoration is a stellar historical fiction novel that I practically inhaled! I loved Diana and Brent and hated when I got to the end! I cannot wait for her next release, The Mozart Code! Highly recommended.
Rachel McMillan is the author of The Herringford and Watts mysteries, The Van Buren and DeLuca mysteries and The Three Quarter Time series of contemporary Viennese romances. Her next work of historical fiction, The London Restoration, releases in Summer 2020 and takes readers deep into the heart of London's most beautiful churches. Dream, Plan, Go (May, 2020) is her first work of non-fiction. Rachel lives in Toronto, Canada and is always planning her next adventure.
Review at Amy's Booket List
Review at Gwendalyn's Books
Review at Donna's Book Blog
Labels: Rachel McMillan
Mystica August 31, 2020 at 9:45 PM
I've got this one and looking forward to reading it.
Passages to the Past September 1, 2020 at 7:34 AM
Yay, I hope you love it! It was wonderful!
Marg September 2, 2020 at 7:38 AM
I like the sound of this one!
Welcome to the Inaugural Author Chat Night at Passages to the Past, featuring Susan Holloway Scott
Woo Hoo ....the moment has arrived! I am so pleased to welcome you, one and all, to the Inaugural Author Chat Night at Passages to the Pas...
New Giveaway: Notorious Royal Marriages by Leslie Carroll
As part of the Historical Fiction Round Table event we have going on this week, I've got 1 copy of Leslie Carroll's Notorious Roy...
2 copy giveaway: The Forever Queen by Helen Hollick
The fabulous peeps at Sourcebooks has given Passages to the Past 2 copies of the stupendous novel, The Forever Queen by Helen Hollick !!!! ...
Guest Post by Ciji Ware, author of Island of the Swans + GIVEAWAY
Like most writers who've published a number of novels, I'm often asked where do my ideas come from and how I turn the germ of an "notion" i...
Review & Giveaway: The London Restoration by Rache...
Review & Giveaway: Into the Unbounded Night by Mit...
Book Blast & Giveaway: The Quality of Mercy by Mal...
Interview & Giveaway: Gilded Dreams by Donna Russo...
Alina: A Song For the Telling by Malve von Hassell
Review & Giveaway: The River Jewel: A Letter Serie...
Review & Giveaway: The Memory House: A Love Story ...
Review & Giveaway: The Girl from Vichy by Andie Ne...
2020 Historical Fiction Reading Challenge: August ...


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The Psychology of Judicial Decision Making
David E. Klein and Gregory Mitchell (eds)
Psychology, Forensic Psychology
This volume of essays examines the psychological processes that underlie judicial decision making. Chapters in the first section of the book take as their starting point the fact that judges make ... More
This volume of essays examines the psychological processes that underlie judicial decision making. Chapters in the first section of the book take as their starting point the fact that judges make many of the same judgments and decisions that ordinary people make and consider how our knowledge about judgment and decision-making in general applies to the case of legal judges. Chapters in the second section focus on the specific tasks that judges perform within a unique social setting and examine the expertise and particular modes of reasoning that judges develop to deal with their tasks in this unique setting. Chapters in the third section raise questions about whether and how we can evaluate judicial performance, with implications for the possibility of improving judging through the selection and training of judges and structuring of judicial institutions. Together the essays apply a wide range of psychological insights to help us better understand how judges make decisions and to open new avenues of inquiry into the influences on judicial behavior.Less
This volume of essays examines the psychological processes that underlie judicial decision making. Chapters in the first section of the book take as their starting point the fact that judges make many of the same judgments and decisions that ordinary people make and consider how our knowledge about judgment and decision-making in general applies to the case of legal judges. Chapters in the second section focus on the specific tasks that judges perform within a unique social setting and examine the expertise and particular modes of reasoning that judges develop to deal with their tasks in this unique setting. Chapters in the third section raise questions about whether and how we can evaluate judicial performance, with implications for the possibility of improving judging through the selection and training of judges and structuring of judicial institutions. Together the essays apply a wide range of psychological insights to help us better understand how judges make decisions and to open new avenues of inquiry into the influences on judicial behavior.
Keywords: judicial behavior, judicial decision making, courts, rationality, heuristics and biases, attitudinal model, strategic models, legal model, motivated reasoning, expertise
What's left to do?
Penelope Maddy
in Second Philosophy: A Naturalistic Method
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics
Opponents of a 'scientistic' approach as austere as Second Philosophy often imagine that philosophy just becomes science, that there's nothing left for the philosopher to do. The book as a whole aims ... More
Opponents of a 'scientistic' approach as austere as Second Philosophy often imagine that philosophy just becomes science, that there's nothing left for the philosopher to do. The book as a whole aims to demonstrate that this isn't true, that questions traditionally regarded a philosophical can be effectively addressed from a second-philosophical perspective. This chapter points out the heuristic value of training in the historical and contemporary practice of philosophy, and introduces the topic of word-world connections to trace second-philosophical and un-second-philosophical themes in the current debate between correspondence and disquotational theories of truth.Less
Opponents of a 'scientistic' approach as austere as Second Philosophy often imagine that philosophy just becomes science, that there's nothing left for the philosopher to do. The book as a whole aims to demonstrate that this isn't true, that questions traditionally regarded a philosophical can be effectively addressed from a second-philosophical perspective. This chapter points out the heuristic value of training in the historical and contemporary practice of philosophy, and introduces the topic of word-world connections to trace second-philosophical and un-second-philosophical themes in the current debate between correspondence and disquotational theories of truth.
Keywords: correspondence theories, disquotationalism, heuristics, scientism, truth, word-world connections
The Simple Art of Voting: The Cognitive Shortcuts of Italian Voters
Delia Baldassarri
Sociology, Politics, Social Movements and Social Change
Voting distills a complex decision into a deceptively simple action. The electorate faces a messy tangle of parties, leaders, and issues. How is it possible for voters to unravel it all? How do they ... More
Voting distills a complex decision into a deceptively simple action. The electorate faces a messy tangle of parties, leaders, and issues. How is it possible for voters to unravel it all? How do they perceive the political landscape? How, in short, do voters choose? Not only is voting a complex choice, but voters themselves also vary widely in their degree of interest, and involvement in politics. This book provides a new understanding of how voting works by focusing on how choices are made given the cognitive limitations of the human mind and the environment in which decision making takes place. Drawing on recent advances in the study of cognitive psychology, decision making, and political cognition, this book provides a careful empirical examination of the strategies voters actually use to manage the complexity of political choice. Expressly rejecting the prevailing one-size-fits-all, "what a rational voter should do" approach, it distinguishes voters based on the cognitive shortcuts, or heuristics, they use to simplify the decision-making process. Drawing on survey data from the 1990s Italian national general elections, the book identifies four types of voters, classified by how they perceive and organize the political debate—from those who capably rely on nuanced ideological categories to those who, skeptical about all-things-political, prove easy prey for television broadcasters. The typology allows us to grasp the actual differences in political sophistication among citizens and to understand which factors are most important to different types of voters. The book helps us make sense of the various ways in which citizens themselves make sense of—and make "simple"—the complex world of politics.Less
The Simple Art of Voting : The Cognitive Shortcuts of Italian Voters
Voting distills a complex decision into a deceptively simple action. The electorate faces a messy tangle of parties, leaders, and issues. How is it possible for voters to unravel it all? How do they perceive the political landscape? How, in short, do voters choose? Not only is voting a complex choice, but voters themselves also vary widely in their degree of interest, and involvement in politics. This book provides a new understanding of how voting works by focusing on how choices are made given the cognitive limitations of the human mind and the environment in which decision making takes place. Drawing on recent advances in the study of cognitive psychology, decision making, and political cognition, this book provides a careful empirical examination of the strategies voters actually use to manage the complexity of political choice. Expressly rejecting the prevailing one-size-fits-all, "what a rational voter should do" approach, it distinguishes voters based on the cognitive shortcuts, or heuristics, they use to simplify the decision-making process. Drawing on survey data from the 1990s Italian national general elections, the book identifies four types of voters, classified by how they perceive and organize the political debate—from those who capably rely on nuanced ideological categories to those who, skeptical about all-things-political, prove easy prey for television broadcasters. The typology allows us to grasp the actual differences in political sophistication among citizens and to understand which factors are most important to different types of voters. The book helps us make sense of the various ways in which citizens themselves make sense of—and make "simple"—the complex world of politics.
Keywords: public opinion, cognitive heuristics, political sophistication, Italian politics, human decision making, ideological voter, political disaffection
The Case for Massively Modular Models of Mind
in The Architecture of the Mind
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
This chapter lays out the main arguments supporting massive modularity and explicates the notion of 'module' that those arguments support (which is significantly weaker than on Fodor's influential ... More
This chapter lays out the main arguments supporting massive modularity and explicates the notion of 'module' that those arguments support (which is significantly weaker than on Fodor's influential account). It argues that modularity is a property of biological systems quite generally, and of animal minds in particular. It also defends the viability of evolutionary psychology as a scientific research program. The chapter criticizes Fodor's argument that encapsulated forms of modularity are a requirement of computational tractability, arguing that the latter can be assured through the use of various kinds of cognitive heuristic.Less
This chapter lays out the main arguments supporting massive modularity and explicates the notion of 'module' that those arguments support (which is significantly weaker than on Fodor's influential account). It argues that modularity is a property of biological systems quite generally, and of animal minds in particular. It also defends the viability of evolutionary psychology as a scientific research program. The chapter criticizes Fodor's argument that encapsulated forms of modularity are a requirement of computational tractability, arguing that the latter can be assured through the use of various kinds of cognitive heuristic.
Keywords: animal minds, biological modularity, cognitive heuristic, computational tractability, encapsulation, evolutionary psychology, Fodor, module
Theories and Models of Party Support
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
in Political Choice in Britain
10.1093/019924488X.003.0002
Political Science, UK Politics
Discusses the theoretical frameworks that guide the empirical analyses in Political Choice in Britain. The sociological framework identifies various aspects of an individual's social location, such ... More
Discusses the theoretical frameworks that guide the empirical analyses in Political Choice in Britain. The sociological framework identifies various aspects of an individual's social location, such as social class, region, gender and ethnicity, as sources of differential voting patterns. The individual rationality framework encompasses both the Downsian and the valence approaches. Our characterization of the Downsian approach focuses on issue positions and issue proximities. The valence approach specifies that heuristics and other types of 'rough and ready' calculations inform voters' party preferences. Although conceptualized quite differently, party identification is a predictor variable in both theoretical frameworks.Less
Harold D. ClarkeDavid SandersMarianne C. StewartPaul Whiteley
Discusses the theoretical frameworks that guide the empirical analyses in Political Choice in Britain. The sociological framework identifies various aspects of an individual's social location, such as social class, region, gender and ethnicity, as sources of differential voting patterns. The individual rationality framework encompasses both the Downsian and the valence approaches. Our characterization of the Downsian approach focuses on issue positions and issue proximities. The valence approach specifies that heuristics and other types of 'rough and ready' calculations inform voters' party preferences. Although conceptualized quite differently, party identification is a predictor variable in both theoretical frameworks.
Keywords: heuristics, leader images, party identification, position issues, valence issues
THE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY: ORGANIZATIONS AS DECISION-MAKING SYSTEMS
Chun Wei Choo
in The Knowing Organization: How Organizations Use Information to Construct Meaning, Create Knowledge, and Make Decisions
Business and Management, Knowledge Management
Depending on the degree of goal uncertainty and procedural uncertainty, organizational decision making may follow the bounded rationality model, process model, political model, or anarchic model. ... More
Depending on the degree of goal uncertainty and procedural uncertainty, organizational decision making may follow the bounded rationality model, process model, political model, or anarchic model. Individual decision making relies on heuristics that can lead to biases. Group decision making is vulnerable to the tendencies for groupthink, group polarization, and an escalation of commitment. In an attempt to reduce decision uncertainty and complexity, organizations control the creation and use of information by establishing decision premises, rules, and routines for different types of decision situations.Less
Depending on the degree of goal uncertainty and procedural uncertainty, organizational decision making may follow the bounded rationality model, process model, political model, or anarchic model. Individual decision making relies on heuristics that can lead to biases. Group decision making is vulnerable to the tendencies for groupthink, group polarization, and an escalation of commitment. In an attempt to reduce decision uncertainty and complexity, organizations control the creation and use of information by establishing decision premises, rules, and routines for different types of decision situations.
Keywords: bounded rationality, process model, political decision making, anarchic can model, decision premises, groupthink, group polarization, escalation of commitment, heuristics and biases
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage, and ABC Research Group (eds)
Psychology, Social Psychology
This book invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where ... More
This book invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. The social world also encompasses domains, however, where social animals such as humans learn from one another how to deal with the vagaries of a natural world that both inflicts unforeseeable hazards and presents useful opportunities and dare to trust and forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity of the social world does not dictate cognitive complexity as many scholars of rationality argue. Rather, it entails circumstances that render optimization impossible or computationally arduous: intractability, the existence of incommensurable considerations, and competing goals. With optimization beyond reach, less can be more. That is, heuristics—simple strategies for making decisions when time is pressing and careful deliberation an unaffordable luxury—become indispensible mental tools. As accurate or even more accurate than complex methods when used in the appropriate environments, these heuristics are good descriptive models of how people make many decisions and inferences, but their impressive performance also poses a normative challenge for optimization models. In short, the homo socialis may prove to be a homo heuristicus whose intelligence reflects ecological rather than logical rationality.Less
This book invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. The social world also encompasses domains, however, where social animals such as humans learn from one another how to deal with the vagaries of a natural world that both inflicts unforeseeable hazards and presents useful opportunities and dare to trust and forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity of the social world does not dictate cognitive complexity as many scholars of rationality argue. Rather, it entails circumstances that render optimization impossible or computationally arduous: intractability, the existence of incommensurable considerations, and competing goals. With optimization beyond reach, less can be more. That is, heuristics—simple strategies for making decisions when time is pressing and careful deliberation an unaffordable luxury—become indispensible mental tools. As accurate or even more accurate than complex methods when used in the appropriate environments, these heuristics are good descriptive models of how people make many decisions and inferences, but their impressive performance also poses a normative challenge for optimization models. In short, the homo socialis may prove to be a homo heuristicus whose intelligence reflects ecological rather than logical rationality.
Keywords: bounded rationality, ecological rationality, social rationality, heuristics, social intelligence, behavioral economics, decision making, optimization, social learning, adaptive toolbox
Richard Swedberg
in The Art of Social Theory
10.23943/princeton/9780691155227.003.0007
Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
This chapter focuses on the importance of heuristics in theorizing. The most common interpretation of the word heuristics is that it means "discovery." When one theorizes, it has been argued, one ... More
This chapter focuses on the importance of heuristics in theorizing. The most common interpretation of the word heuristics is that it means "discovery." When one theorizes, it has been argued, one should not only use the individual steps to move forward but also to try to discover something new about the phenomenon one studies. The heuristic stance, or the attitude that theorizing is about discovery, is to some extent inherent in the decision to theorize in the first place. While some of the literature on heuristics is about making important discoveries along the lines of Archimedes, there also exists another and more recent branch that has a much more modest aim. This type of heuristics essentially tries to teach the average student to develop an independent approach to solving problems.Less
This chapter focuses on the importance of heuristics in theorizing. The most common interpretation of the word heuristics is that it means "discovery." When one theorizes, it has been argued, one should not only use the individual steps to move forward but also to try to discover something new about the phenomenon one studies. The heuristic stance, or the attitude that theorizing is about discovery, is to some extent inherent in the decision to theorize in the first place. While some of the literature on heuristics is about making important discoveries along the lines of Archimedes, there also exists another and more recent branch that has a much more modest aim. This type of heuristics essentially tries to teach the average student to develop an independent approach to solving problems.
Keywords: heuristics, theorizing, discovery, heuristic stance, Archimedes
The Counterfactual Network
Mark Casson
in The World's First Railway System: Enterprise, Competition, and Regulation on the Railway Network in Victorian Britain
Business and Management, Business History, Organization Studies
The counterfactual railway system was constructed using nine heuristic principles. The most important was the Steiner Principle, which asserts that under certain conditions an optimal railway network ... More
The counterfactual railway system was constructed using nine heuristic principles. The most important was the Steiner Principle, which asserts that under certain conditions an optimal railway network is linked up by a set of spatially symmetric three-way hubs. The counterfactual network equals or exceeds the performance of the actual network according to various metrics. The counterfactual network achieves this performance with 13,000 route miles as compared to the 20,000 route miles of the actual system.Less
The counterfactual railway system was constructed using nine heuristic principles. The most important was the Steiner Principle, which asserts that under certain conditions an optimal railway network is linked up by a set of spatially symmetric three-way hubs. The counterfactual network equals or exceeds the performance of the actual network according to various metrics. The counterfactual network achieves this performance with 13,000 route miles as compared to the 20,000 route miles of the actual system.
Keywords: railway, counterfactual, heuristic, Steiner Principle, metric, hub, symmetry
Normative Degradation: Deleting Rights without Consent in the Name of Contract
Margaret Jane Radin
in Boilerplate: The Fine Print, Vanishing Rights, and the Rule of Law
Law, Company and Commercial Law
This chapter examines the normative degradation caused by the apparent lack of consent to boilerplate. It first considers the varieties of nonconsent to which consent is contrasted, including ... More
This chapter examines the normative degradation caused by the apparent lack of consent to boilerplate. It first considers the varieties of nonconsent to which consent is contrasted, including coercion and its related conceptions of force and duress; fraud, with its allied notions of misrepresentation and deception; and sheer ignorance. It then discusses problematic consent, focusing on situations involving "information asymmetry" and heuristic biases. It also explores strategies of assimilating World B to consent, with particular emphasis on the devolution of voluntary agreement. The chapter shows that consent is problematic even when recipients click a box that says "I agree," because it remains unclear what they could actually be agreeing to.Less
Normative Degradation : Deleting Rights without Consent in the Name of Contract
This chapter examines the normative degradation caused by the apparent lack of consent to boilerplate. It first considers the varieties of nonconsent to which consent is contrasted, including coercion and its related conceptions of force and duress; fraud, with its allied notions of misrepresentation and deception; and sheer ignorance. It then discusses problematic consent, focusing on situations involving "information asymmetry" and heuristic biases. It also explores strategies of assimilating World B to consent, with particular emphasis on the devolution of voluntary agreement. The chapter shows that consent is problematic even when recipients click a box that says "I agree," because it remains unclear what they could actually be agreeing to.
Keywords: normative degradation, consent, boilerplate, nonconsent, coercion, sheer ignorance, information asymmetry, heuristic biases, voluntary agreement, problematic consent
Can Utilitarian-Welfare (Economic) Theory Justify Boilerplate Deletion of Rights?
This chapter examines whether boilerplate rights deletion schemes can be justified by the "contract-as-product" theory. The contract-as-product theory attempts to sidestep the issue of consent by ... More
This chapter examines whether boilerplate rights deletion schemes can be justified by the "contract-as-product" theory. The contract-as-product theory attempts to sidestep the issue of consent by denying that a particular set of contracted terms is an individual transaction requiring consent in the traditional sense. According to this view, whatever adhesion terms accompany the purchase of a product should actually be conceived of as part of the product. The chapter considers how choice or consent by the recipient enters into the contract-as-product view, and how information asymmetry and heuristic biases render erroneous the assumption of economic rationality. It argues that contract-as-product theory cannot suffice to validate boilerplate in general, or even presumptively.Less
This chapter examines whether boilerplate rights deletion schemes can be justified by the "contract-as-product" theory. The contract-as-product theory attempts to sidestep the issue of consent by denying that a particular set of contracted terms is an individual transaction requiring consent in the traditional sense. According to this view, whatever adhesion terms accompany the purchase of a product should actually be conceived of as part of the product. The chapter considers how choice or consent by the recipient enters into the contract-as-product view, and how information asymmetry and heuristic biases render erroneous the assumption of economic rationality. It argues that contract-as-product theory cannot suffice to validate boilerplate in general, or even presumptively.
Keywords: boilerplate rights, contract-as-product theory, consent, contract, choice, information asymmetry, heuristic biases, economic rationality, boilerplate
Cognitive Load and Human Decision, or, Three Ways of Rolling the Rock Uphil l
Kim Sterelny
in The Innate Mind: Volume 2: Culture and Cognition
This chapter argues that much human decision-making has a high cognitive load, that is, agents make satisfying decisions only by accessing and effectively using information that is hard to get, ... More
This chapter argues that much human decision-making has a high cognitive load, that is, agents make satisfying decisions only by accessing and effectively using information that is hard to get, interpret, or both. When the type of information needed for good decision-making is predictable over evolutionarily significant time frames, there is likely to be a modular explanation of its intelligent use. When the environment is stable in the right way, natural selection can pre-equip agents to register the relevant information and use it efficiently. But human environments are variable, and as a consequence there are many high-cognitive-load problems that we face whose informational requirements are not stable over evolutionary time. This chapter argues that our capacity to respond successfully to these novel problems depends on two other evolved strategies. The first is informational niche construction. Informational engineering is an ancient feature of human lifeways, and it is argued that human minds are adapted to this social transmission of information. The second strategy is less sensitive to the pace of change. Most obviously, we store information in the environment. This too is an ancient feature of human lifeways. Human minds are adapted not just to relatively invariant features of human environments, but also to changeable ones. Adaptive action in the face of novel challenges depends on some combination of informational niche construction and epistemic technology.Less
This chapter argues that much human decision-making has a high cognitive load, that is, agents make satisfying decisions only by accessing and effectively using information that is hard to get, interpret, or both. When the type of information needed for good decision-making is predictable over evolutionarily significant time frames, there is likely to be a modular explanation of its intelligent use. When the environment is stable in the right way, natural selection can pre-equip agents to register the relevant information and use it efficiently. But human environments are variable, and as a consequence there are many high-cognitive-load problems that we face whose informational requirements are not stable over evolutionary time. This chapter argues that our capacity to respond successfully to these novel problems depends on two other evolved strategies. The first is informational niche construction. Informational engineering is an ancient feature of human lifeways, and it is argued that human minds are adapted to this social transmission of information. The second strategy is less sensitive to the pace of change. Most obviously, we store information in the environment. This too is an ancient feature of human lifeways. Human minds are adapted not just to relatively invariant features of human environments, but also to changeable ones. Adaptive action in the face of novel challenges depends on some combination of informational niche construction and epistemic technology.
Keywords: culture, evolution, decision-making, modules, heuristics, evolutionary psychology, informational niche construction, epistemic technology
Voter Competence: What do Voters Need to Know?
Sara Binzer Hobolt
in Europe in Question: Referendums on European Integration
Political Science, Comparative Politics, European Union
What do voters need to know? That is the question examined in this chapter which explores voting behaviour in EU referendums from a normative perspective by considering the issue of voter competence. ... More
What do voters need to know? That is the question examined in this chapter which explores voting behaviour in EU referendums from a normative perspective by considering the issue of voter competence. The main argument put forward in the chapter is that that competent voting in EU referendums is based on issue‐specific preferences and requires political knowledge, but not necessarily high levels of factual political information, since information short‐cuts such as party cues can act as substitutes for detailed information. These theoretical questions are evaluated empirically in an analysis of the 1994 Norwegian referendum on EU membership. This case study reveals that most citizens can vote 'competently' by relying on the recommendations of political parties, although it does not follow that voters necessarily adhere to this advice.Less
What do voters need to know? That is the question examined in this chapter which explores voting behaviour in EU referendums from a normative perspective by considering the issue of voter competence. The main argument put forward in the chapter is that that competent voting in EU referendums is based on issue‐specific preferences and requires political knowledge, but not necessarily high levels of factual political information, since information short‐cuts such as party cues can act as substitutes for detailed information. These theoretical questions are evaluated empirically in an analysis of the 1994 Norwegian referendum on EU membership. This case study reveals that most citizens can vote 'competently' by relying on the recommendations of political parties, although it does not follow that voters necessarily adhere to this advice.
Keywords: accession, cues, direct democracy, heuristics, information, knowledge, membership, Norway, party competition, political parties, voter competence
Rethinking the SMASH Approach to Pronoun Interpretation
Andrew Kehler
in Reference: Interdisciplinary Perspectives
Linguistics, Semantics and Pragmatics
This chapter argues that the manner in which pronoun interpretation has been characterized by many psycholinguistic and computational linguistic studies over the last three decades — what is called ... More
This chapter argues that the manner in which pronoun interpretation has been characterized by many psycholinguistic and computational linguistic studies over the last three decades — what is called here the SMASH procedure, for Search, Match, and Select using Heuristics – is untenable and therefore should be abandoned. Data are presented that are unlikely to be explained by theories based on interactions among superficial heuristics and preferences, and instead motivate an account in which the relevant interactions lie at the levels of information structure and discourse coherence establishment. The study sketches an analysis of this process, with reference to a set of key examples, although a more complete analysis will be left for future work.Less
This chapter argues that the manner in which pronoun interpretation has been characterized by many psycholinguistic and computational linguistic studies over the last three decades — what is called here the SMASH procedure, for Search, Match, and Select using Heuristics – is untenable and therefore should be abandoned. Data are presented that are unlikely to be explained by theories based on interactions among superficial heuristics and preferences, and instead motivate an account in which the relevant interactions lie at the levels of information structure and discourse coherence establishment. The study sketches an analysis of this process, with reference to a set of key examples, although a more complete analysis will be left for future work.
Keywords: pronoun interpretation, heuristics, information structure, discourse coherence, psycholinguistics, computational linguistics
Human Decision Making and Heuristics of Judgment
in The Simple Art of Voting: The Cognitive Shortcuts of Italian Voters
Chapter 2 introduces the conceptual developments of the research on human decision making, an important instrument for understanding how individuals make choices in complex situations characterized ... More
Chapter 2 introduces the conceptual developments of the research on human decision making, an important instrument for understanding how individuals make choices in complex situations characterized by uncertainty, incomplete information, and limited time. In particular, we will focus on two different approaches to heuristics, Kahneman and Tversky's "Heuristics and Biases" research program and Gigerenzer and the ABC Research Group's "Fast and Frugal Heuristics." Each is a set of decision-making strategies based on the use of a limited amount of information and simple and quick reasoning algorithms. While both approaches constitute a plausible alternative to rational choice models of decision making, the "Heuristic and Biases" approach relies on a "right answer" and is therefore difficult to apply to the study of political decisions. In deciding who to vote for, who to marry, or where to relocate, there is no right answer. The "Fast and Frugal Heuristics" approach, with its focus on satisfacing choice rather than best choice, is better suited for the study of this type of decision making.Less
Chapter 2 introduces the conceptual developments of the research on human decision making, an important instrument for understanding how individuals make choices in complex situations characterized by uncertainty, incomplete information, and limited time. In particular, we will focus on two different approaches to heuristics, Kahneman and Tversky's "Heuristics and Biases" research program and Gigerenzer and the ABC Research Group's "Fast and Frugal Heuristics." Each is a set of decision-making strategies based on the use of a limited amount of information and simple and quick reasoning algorithms. While both approaches constitute a plausible alternative to rational choice models of decision making, the "Heuristic and Biases" approach relies on a "right answer" and is therefore difficult to apply to the study of political decisions. In deciding who to vote for, who to marry, or where to relocate, there is no right answer. The "Fast and Frugal Heuristics" approach, with its focus on satisfacing choice rather than best choice, is better suited for the study of this type of decision making.
Keywords: human decision making, rational decision making, cognitive Heuristics, Heuristics and Biases, Fast and Frugal Heuristics
Heuristic‐Driven Bias: The First Theme
Hersh Shefrin
in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics
Statistics and probability are essential concepts when it comes to risk. Yet, most people have poor intuition about statistics and probabilities. Instead of behaving like professional statisticians, ... More
Statistics and probability are essential concepts when it comes to risk. Yet, most people have poor intuition about statistics and probabilities. Instead of behaving like professional statisticians, they rely on flawed intuition, based on rules of thumb called heuristics. By using heuristics people render themselves vulnerable to errors and biases. That is why the first theme of behavioral finance is called heuristic‐driven bias. The chapter describes these biases using behavioral concepts such as availability, representativeness, anchoring‐and‐adjustment, overconfidence, and aversion to ambiguity. Examples are provided to illustrate how these concepts affect the manner in which investors form predictions.Less
Statistics and probability are essential concepts when it comes to risk. Yet, most people have poor intuition about statistics and probabilities. Instead of behaving like professional statisticians, they rely on flawed intuition, based on rules of thumb called heuristics. By using heuristics people render themselves vulnerable to errors and biases. That is why the first theme of behavioral finance is called heuristic‐driven bias. The chapter describes these biases using behavioral concepts such as availability, representativeness, anchoring‐and‐adjustment, overconfidence, and aversion to ambiguity. Examples are provided to illustrate how these concepts affect the manner in which investors form predictions.
Keywords: anchoring and adjustment, aversion to ambiguity, availability, conservatism, heuristic, heuristic‐driven bias, overconfidence, regression to the mean, representativeness
Cognitive Paternalism
F. H. Buckley
in Fair Governance: Paternalism and Perfectionism
Law, Philosophy of Law
Cognitive paternalism would impeach choices which are misshaped by our judgment heuristics, instincts, or emotions. An important empirical literature at the border of psychology and economics suggest ... More
Cognitive paternalism would impeach choices which are misshaped by our judgment heuristics, instincts, or emotions. An important empirical literature at the border of psychology and economics suggest that we are often led astray by biases of one sort or another, and that in such cases we might attend to the paternalist to set us straight. This kind of paternalism was enormously popular in the last twenty years, but now seems to have been oversold. Our judgment heuristics are much more sophisticated and accurate than might at first appear, in the empiricist's laboratory. Apart from this, the cognitive paternalist who imposes fetters on choices will be affected by his own set of biases, notably the hindsight bias in which things just had to turn out the way they did. Because of this he is too likely to assume that decisions were poorly made.Less
Cognitive paternalism would impeach choices which are misshaped by our judgment heuristics, instincts, or emotions. An important empirical literature at the border of psychology and economics suggest that we are often led astray by biases of one sort or another, and that in such cases we might attend to the paternalist to set us straight. This kind of paternalism was enormously popular in the last twenty years, but now seems to have been oversold. Our judgment heuristics are much more sophisticated and accurate than might at first appear, in the empiricist's laboratory. Apart from this, the cognitive paternalist who imposes fetters on choices will be affected by his own set of biases, notably the hindsight bias in which things just had to turn out the way they did. Because of this he is too likely to assume that decisions were poorly made.
Keywords: heuristics, instincts, emotions, judgment biases, ecological rationality, adaptive toolbox, fast heuristics, frugal heuristics
How Smart Forgetting Helps Heuristic Inference
Lael J. Schooler, Ralph Hertwig, and Stefan M. Herzog
in Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Human-Technology Interaction
Theorists ranging from William James (1890) to some contemporary psychologists have argued that forgetting is the key to proper functioning of memory. The authors elaborate on the notion of ... More
Theorists ranging from William James (1890) to some contemporary psychologists have argued that forgetting is the key to proper functioning of memory. The authors elaborate on the notion of beneficial forgetting by proposing that loss of information aids inference heuristics that exploit mnemonic information. They demonstrate this by implementing the recognition and fluency heuristics for two-alternative choice within the ACT-R cognitive architecture. For the recognition heuristic, forgetting can boost accuracy by increasing the chances that only a single alternative is recognized. Simulations of the fluency heuristic, choosing based on the speed with which the alternatives are recognized, indicate that forgetting aids the discrimination between recognition speeds. The authors show that retrieval fluency can be a proxy for real-world quantities, that people can discriminate between two objects' retrieval fluencies, and that people's inferences are in line with the fluency heuristic.Less
Lael J. SchoolerRalph HertwigStefan M. Herzog
Theorists ranging from William James (1890) to some contemporary psychologists have argued that forgetting is the key to proper functioning of memory. The authors elaborate on the notion of beneficial forgetting by proposing that loss of information aids inference heuristics that exploit mnemonic information. They demonstrate this by implementing the recognition and fluency heuristics for two-alternative choice within the ACT-R cognitive architecture. For the recognition heuristic, forgetting can boost accuracy by increasing the chances that only a single alternative is recognized. Simulations of the fluency heuristic, choosing based on the speed with which the alternatives are recognized, indicate that forgetting aids the discrimination between recognition speeds. The authors show that retrieval fluency can be a proxy for real-world quantities, that people can discriminate between two objects' retrieval fluencies, and that people's inferences are in line with the fluency heuristic.
Keywords: fluency, fluency heuristic, recognition heuristic, ecological rationality, ACT-R, memory, forgetting, recognition
How Estimation Can Benefit From an Imbalanced World
Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage, and Rüdiger Sparr
This chapter analyzes how valuable the assumption of systematic environment imbalance is for performing rough-and-ready intuitive estimates, which people regularly do when inferring the quantitative ... More
This chapter analyzes how valuable the assumption of systematic environment imbalance is for performing rough-and-ready intuitive estimates, which people regularly do when inferring the quantitative value of an object (e.g., its frequency, size, value, or quality). The chapter outlines how systematic environment imbalance can be quantified using the framework of power laws. It investigates to what extent power-law characteristics and other statistical properties of real-world environments can be allies of two simple estimation heuristics, QuickEst and the mapping heuristic. The analyses, which involve comparing the estimation performances of the heuristics relative to more complex strategies, demonstrate that QuickEst could be particularly suited for deriving rough-and-ready estimates in skewed distributions with highly dispersed cue validities, whereas the mapping heuristic might be most suited when the cues have similar validities.Less
Ralph HertwigUlrich HoffrageRüdiger Sparr
This chapter analyzes how valuable the assumption of systematic environment imbalance is for performing rough-and-ready intuitive estimates, which people regularly do when inferring the quantitative value of an object (e.g., its frequency, size, value, or quality). The chapter outlines how systematic environment imbalance can be quantified using the framework of power laws. It investigates to what extent power-law characteristics and other statistical properties of real-world environments can be allies of two simple estimation heuristics, QuickEst and the mapping heuristic. The analyses, which involve comparing the estimation performances of the heuristics relative to more complex strategies, demonstrate that QuickEst could be particularly suited for deriving rough-and-ready estimates in skewed distributions with highly dispersed cue validities, whereas the mapping heuristic might be most suited when the cues have similar validities.
Keywords: power law, estimation, statistical properties, QuickEst heuristic, mapping heuristic, skewness
Social Learning Strategies
William Hoppitt and Kevin N. Laland
in Social Learning: An Introduction to Mechanisms, Methods, and Models
Biology, Animal Biology
This chapter focuses on social learning strategies—functional rules specifying what, when, and who to copy. There are many plausible social learning strategies. Individuals might disproportionately ... More
This chapter focuses on social learning strategies—functional rules specifying what, when, and who to copy. There are many plausible social learning strategies. Individuals might disproportionately copy when asocial learning would be difficult or costly, when they are uncertain of what to do, when the environment changes, when established behavior proves unproductive, and so forth. Likewise, animals might preferentially copy the dominant individual, the most successful individual, or a close relative. This chapter presents evidence for some of the better-studied learning heuristics and describes statistical procedures for identifying which social learning strategies are being deployed in a data set. It examines "who" strategies, which cover frequency-dependent biases, success biases, and kin and age biases, as well as "what" strategies, random copying, and statistical methods for detecting social learning strategies. Finally, it evaluates meta-strategies, best strategies, and hierarchical control.Less
William HoppittKevin N. Laland
This chapter focuses on social learning strategies—functional rules specifying what, when, and who to copy. There are many plausible social learning strategies. Individuals might disproportionately copy when asocial learning would be difficult or costly, when they are uncertain of what to do, when the environment changes, when established behavior proves unproductive, and so forth. Likewise, animals might preferentially copy the dominant individual, the most successful individual, or a close relative. This chapter presents evidence for some of the better-studied learning heuristics and describes statistical procedures for identifying which social learning strategies are being deployed in a data set. It examines "who" strategies, which cover frequency-dependent biases, success biases, and kin and age biases, as well as "what" strategies, random copying, and statistical methods for detecting social learning strategies. Finally, it evaluates meta-strategies, best strategies, and hierarchical control.
Keywords: social learning strategies, social learning, asocial learning, learning heuristics, frequency-dependent biases, success biases, random copying, statistical methods, meta-strategies, hierarchical control