text:
The Weekly League
Green Bay Is John Smoltz (2009 Edition)
By Carson Cistulli
This week's edition of The Weekly League isn't an edition of The Weekly League at all.
John Smoltz Pitches Poorly (Or Doesn't)
Before the 2009 baseball season started, the Boston Red Sox signed right-hander John Smoltz to a one-year contract. The signing was notable for a number of reasons, including but not limited to the following:
• Until that point, he'd pitched with the same team (the Atlanta Braves) for his entire 21-year career.
• He was (is) a future Hall of Famer.
• He was coming off major surgery to a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder.
• He would likely not be available to pitch until June.
• He was old (41).
The move was generally considered a good one for the Sox, who paid Smoltz a base salary of about $5.5 million, with incentives that could net the pitcher something in the vicinity of $10 million. And the deal looked even smarter after Smoltz made his first minor-league start in May, pitched well through his entire rehab stint, and made his Red Sox debut on June 25th at Washington.
Yet, besides the fact that he was able to make it at all, that start against the Nationals didn't go so great. Smoltz allowed seven hits and five earned runs in five innings, taking the loss. And, actually, that performance was typical of his eight-start tenure with the Sox. Before being released by the team on August 17th, Smoltz' line with the Sox looked like this: 40.0 IP, 59 H, 37 ER, 8.33 ERA. By the majority of fans and local media, the Smoltz Experiment was considered a failure.
Here's the thing, though: in terms of the things that pitchers can control -- the things that are most easily repeatable and most predictive of future performance -- Smoltz was pretty excellent. His 7.43 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 were both better than average for a starting pitcher. He'd conceded a lot of hits, yes, but mostly because 39% of the batted balls he conceded didn't find gloves (while the league-average rate is about 30%). And even though he'd allowed 1.80 HR/9 over those 40 innings, some of that was because his fly balls were leaving the park at a higher-than-normal rate -- 14.8%, as opposed to the league-average 11% or so.
All told, Smoltz pitched like a pitcher who "should" have had a 4.19 ERA -- not vintage Smoltz, but certainly palatable. And definitely not a failure.
When Dave Cameron made a very similar case on FanGraphs, the commentariat -- or, at least, much of the commentariat -- became rabid and emotionally unkempt.
Regard this from Joe R:
And once again you miss a big factor, Dave.
Smoltz was missing bats and in the strike zone. He was also grooving a LOT of pitches. He was looking gassed by the 4th inning. He simply does not have the gas to start anymore.
He probably could serve a purpose out of the pen, but Smoltz the first time through the lineup =/= Smoltz after.
And Nick:
I'm as big a stathead as anyone, but this literally is one of those times where "the numbers don't tell you everything." John Smoltz has a great K/BB, but he just cannot pitch, especially to lefties. His slider doesn't break, and his fastball is bordering on garbage. If he's used as a ROOGY he'd be fine, but I'd be nervous if I were a Cards fan if he starts the rest of the way.
And the very formally named Mr. S:
I usually don't say this about sites that deal with advanced statistics – but do you actually watch the games? Or do you just take a look at the box score?
If you watched any of Smoltz's innings from this year you'd see that he's got a nice big fork sticking out of his back.
One of the few poorly thought out articles I've read here.
The basic message: for those people who watch the game -- even those who also respect the power of numbers -- it was clearclearclear that Smoltz was tired, old, and finished as a pitcher.
This is certainly an appropriate place to note that the author of this piece is by no means averse to watching the game*, nor is he (read: I) averse to observations made by those with some expertise in football's Xs and Os.
*Especially in such cases as when beer is in close proximity.
However, I also know that, as our generous host Brian Burke reminded us in this week's Roundup post, we humans often see what we expect to see. Because Smoltz was a pitcher in his 40s coming off a major procedure, his troubles looked different -- even to intelligent people -- than did, say, Jered Weaver's, a young pitcher with very similar troubles. The strength of Smoltz's narrative obscured the fact that he was, most likely, just experiencing some seriously bad luck.
Numbers vs. Narrative in Football
The influence of narrative is very strong in football, too -- a fact borne out by the case of this year's Atlanta Falcons. Readers of this site will know that the Falcons aren't rated particularly well by the advanced metrics. Our Generous Host's regression model has them as a below-.500 team, actually. And yet, with a 13-3 record, the Falcons are being roundly praised.
In this case, the narrative being constructed around the team concerns the expertise and preparation of the coaching staff. Even as he notes Atlanta's statistical shortcomings, Yahoo's Jason Cole praises head coach Mike Smith's "attention to the most minute details." Paul Johnson, writing for the Times' Fifth Down blog, cites the team's excellence both in penalty yards and turnover margin. "This speaks of discipline," he writes, "and that starts at the top."
Certainly, it would be difficult for a team to win without an excellent coaching staff -- and it's even possible (although very unlikely) that Smith possesses some quality that has allowed him to excel in games decided by six points or fewer (in which situations, Cole notes, Smith is 13-7). But all this leads us to note the painfully obvious: if Smith is so very good, why is his team just okay in terms of passing and running? And just okay in terms of defending the pass and defending the run? Even those fans who're less inclined to give weight to the numbers -- they recognize that these are the things that football teams spend the majority of a game doing.
Of course, anyone already convinced of the Falcons' excellence has a pretty easy response: "Scoreboard." That's fine, I suppose. And difficult to dispute. Again, it's possible that Mike Smith et al. have stumbled upon a little-known means to the great and glorious end of winning football games.
But more likely is that the Falcons will regress to their Generic Winning Percentage. More likely is that a .460-team has won 13 of its last 16 games. More likely is that the Falcons will commence playing like such a team immediately.
Smoltz, Redux
Given his credentials and desire to continue pitching, it was pretty clear that Smoltz would receive at least one offer to finish out the season -- and he did, like three days later, from the St. Louis Cardinals.
So, how'd Smoltz perform with the Cards?
I'll tell you.
In a second.
Before I say how Smoltz pitched in St. Louis, it's essential to note that, because he threw only 38 innings with them -- i.e. roughly the same amount he threw with Boston -- it's actually not that important how Smoltz pitched with the Cardinals. It takes a long time for a pitcher's ERA to become a reliable indicator -- more than 200 innings. So even if he allowed exactly zero runs over that span, it wouldn't necessarily confirm that he (Smoltz) was "back." It would create a smaller window of Smoltz's probable "true talent," yes, but still nothing certain.
Anyway, in the end, here was his line with St. Louis: 38.0 IP, 36 H, 18 ER, 4.26 ERA. As with Boston his strikeout and walk rates (9.47 and 2.13 per nine, respectively) were above average for a starting pitcher. Also as with Boston, Smoltz conceded hits on batted balls at an inflated rate, 33%. All told, he pitched in St. Louis like a pitcher who "should" have had a 3.46 ERA. In any case, it's not surprising that he ended up much closer to the 4.19-ERA pitcher he "should" have been with Boston than the 8.33-ERA pitcher he ended up being.
Some Brief and Sweeping Conclusions
The Green Bay Packers are the 2009 John Smoltz. Or, perhaps stated more accurately, the Atlanta Falcons are the anti-John Smoltz. The Smoltz Narrative was strong enough to cloud the judgment even of smart people. The Falcons narrative is similar: they're likely a mediocre team that's gotten very lucky.
published on 1/15/2011 in Game Preview, The Weekly League
25 Responses to "Green Bay Is John Smoltz (2009 Edition)"
Atlanta's gonna win the SB and make me look like a fool!
Carson Cistulli says:
Brian, would it be any sort of consolation for me to say that you ALREADY look like a fool?
The flaw in the stats logic on Smoltz (and others...Chad Qualls comes to mind) is that for BABIP to regress and ERA to get human, it assumes you can pitch at the major league level to begin with. My BABIP might be .980. It wasn't unreasonable at the time to assume a 41 year old getting hit around like a pinata was in fact, done.
Ian Simcox says:
I wouldn't worry Brian - you can always repent and rename your page 'Advanced NFL Standings', and just reproduce the standings every week should that happen :)
syh says:
But Adam, the other aspects (the K/9 and B/9, etc) did speak to his not being done.
At the extremes that's a definite possibility, Adam, but, even with the Sox, Smoltz (a) struck out 18% of the batters he faced, while only (b) walking or hitting just 7%, and (c) inducing grounders (i.e. the most desirable form of contact, generally speaking) on just under 43% of batted balls (roughly league average).
Those are not things you or I could do. Nor are they things that a fringe major leaguer could do. Even John Wasdin -- who could match the 2009 Smoltz in zero of those categories -- had a .302 career BABIP-against.
With regard to Qualls, Cameron actually wrote about him (and the mysteries of sample size) just this past Thursday:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chad-qualls-kevin-millwood-and-sample-size/
It would be much more surprising were Qualls to post an ERA above 5.00 in 2011 than below 4.00 (or 4.50 and 3.50, if you'd like to account for Petco Park). Again, like Smoltz, he did a number of things that good major league pitchers do.
Oh. Or what Syh said. Sorry.
I wasn't really disagreeing with the basic premise, just that it wasn't unreasonable to see Smoltz in those 8 starts with the ballooned ERA, everything dropping for hits, and knowing he's 41 and off an injury and saying he's done. I know the whole fallacy of "trusting your eyes", and that K/9 and BB/9 weren't bad. And also that its too small a sample size to make any definitive judgement anyway.
I'm looking on Fangraphs now ( I do enjoy Carson's writing btw), I mean basically you can see he got killed on grounders that turned into hits. Were they particularly hard hit balls or just bad luck? Who knows. I did see a few of his starts, and I was surprised after the Sox canned him when I saw his peripherals were good. It truly didn't have that feel, And yes, I could easily qualify as a telepundit with that random and utterly anecdotal observation.
Tarr says:
Games like this one almost make you think that regression to the mean works like the gambler's fallacy; i.e. that the Falcons were "due" to turn the ball over a ton.
Tarr - It was certainly satisfying to watch, even if it was probably too good to be true.
Oh man, totally did not expect to ever be featured as an anti-statistic guy...haha.
I still maintain that while Smoltz had something remaining, he simply was not getting it done the 2nd time through the lineup. Happened in each one of his starts.
Maybe we did cut him too soon, but he did have a 4.95 FIP / 5.07 tERA in his time in Boston. While he also had poor luck, Red Sox fans certainly were not delusional in their immediate assessment of him. The educated Sox fan was saying basically what I said, it's not that Smoltz was a BAD pitcher, just that he was getting worked the 2nd time through the lineup.
That being said, I was on board w/ you guys over the Falcons. Looks like I (as well as you) were right.
Except one game doesn't prove we were right. We could have seen the same outcome if the Falcons were 99% to win. Nevertheless...they were way overrated, and the objectively better team won.
I think the way GB dominated Atlanta once they got rolling, while obviously not "proving" anything (as using single data points as evidence of anything is statistically insane), does provide basis in the old "W-L record now is not a predictor of W-L record later" point.
If a team is basically a coin flip to win a game (as the Falcons could be said to be, effectively an average team), it's unlikely, but totally plausible, that you'll get 13 heads/wins, about a 1.23% chance you'd achieve the mark or higher.
The funny thing about GB-ATL is that the columnists are still writing as though ATL is a top team - talking about how Rodgers is proving he's an elite QB by beating the NFC #1 seed.
But actually if this was a week 16 matchup, and both GB and ATL had records like their GWP (GB 10-4, ATL 6-8) they would be saying that Rodgers played well, but let's see how he does against the top teams.
I'm not saying Rodgers isn't good, because I certainly wouldn't want my team facing team him (oh wait that already happened, I'm an Eagles fan), just that it's a little early to be crowning him after a strong game against a weak opponent. Yet more of this narrative-stuff the author points out.
(that should say "my team facing him")
"I TOLD YOU SO"
That´s what Brian´s model predicted all season long.
48-21!! It had to be a Blow-Out like this to silence all critics, and the Power-Rankings which are the same as the W-L Column.
"I TOLD YOU SO":
That´s also me me, several wekks ago. "ATL will exit the Play-Off´s after one game".
I am not only proud of Brian, but me too.
The Luck for ATL is over. Finally. Bold predicted. Good so. Worst ever 13-3 Team.
I TOLD YOU SO :-) :-) :-)
Cheers, Karl from Germany
P.S.: Go Martz, Go Bears
Buzz says:
Thank goodness the general public continued to ride the coat tails of W-L record for ATL though. Made (makes) winning wagers on teams like ATL a lot easier. Wish I would have had the same chance with SDG in the playoffs. Although then we would have had good team vs terrible coach = a big question for the playoffs.
... and now where are the 95+ comments (like in the Week 17-Advanced Rankings) ripping Brian? Where are all those ATL-Fans who turned a blind eye to reality? Where is Prisco (the Man who always fails)?
If it was 20-17 ATL-Fans would have said they were better but unlucky.
48-21, that´s for all of us, the smart readers of this site. We can congratulate each other.
I am very very happy :-)
Karl, Germany
Great game Green Bay, and an obvious win for the model. That said, thank you to those acknowledging that one game does not prove anything (would have italics on prove if I could).
This game doesn't prove the Falcons were overrated, just like the regular season game didn't prove the Falcons are better than Green Bay (or as good as if you want to factor in the 3 points Vegas does).
Of course the margin of victory doesn't speak well for the Falcons, but look at the win probability chart. The Falcons had a 65% chance of winning with 4:04 left in the first half. Then came two extremely costly turnovers while in position to score and the game got out of hand.
Anyway, I'm certainly not going to win any arguments about the Falcons still being a really good football team right now, and unfortunately they won't have another chance to prove me right this year.
Brian, great site. I'm glad trumpeting the case of the Falcons has given me reason to start frequenting it. I've enjoyed the debate, and I look forward to likely continuing it next year, as I (for one) expect the Falcons will probably continue to outperform the efficiency model by excelling in a few areas not reflected in the model. We'll see.
Bigmouth says:
Forgive me for probably missing the obvious, but who wrote this excellent article?
Bigmouth, it's Carson Cistulli, of course!
David-Agreed. One game proves nothing. I think that game said more about how good GB is than much about ATL.
Thanks for the heads-up, James. I should have known -- I love Carson's stuff on Fangraphs.
Brian, it might not be a bad idea to include the author's name with a link (e.g., to other posts).
Sampo says:
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2010 Team Efficiency Rankings - Final
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text:
Teramo Piaggio (died before 1562) was an Italian painter of the late-Renaissance, active in Genoa.

He was born in Zoagli. He was a pupil of Ludovico Brea, and painted in collaboration with Andrea Semini.

References
''The City of Genoa''. Robert Walter Carden; Methuen and Co., London (1908). Page 175.

16th-century Italian painters
Italian male painters
Painters from Genoa
Italian Renaissance painters
Year of death unknown
Year of birth unknown

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The New Teacher Project had a really interesting study out not long ago on teacher evaluation that found that pretty much all teachers get high ratings on local evaluation instruments. This is something of a portent for things to come, since one of the stimulus assurances will probably deal with this piece of data.
See my write-up of the TNTP study for additional details and some feedback from teachers, union officials, and so forth.
One interesting element in the report that I didn't include in my story has to do with where these records are kept. Of the 12 districts TNTP examined, only five of them—Denver; Chicago; Elgin, Ill; Rockford, Ill; and Cincinnati;—keep electronic evaluation data. For most other districts, the results of evaluations basically sit in folders in the district HR office, never to be looked at again by anyone.
Imagine the possibilities if these evaluations actually meant something and districts could sort through the results of such evaluations electronically and analyze them in various ways. Not for punitive purposes, mind you, but to do a better job of offering professional development at the district level to supplement what teachers, coaches, and administrators are doing within schools.
If a lot of teachers are struggling with how to model math problems, for instance, that could be the beginning of a district PD program or even a new math initiative.
If your district does something like this, send me an e-mail! I'd love to hear from you.
As a Teach For America alumni, I can say this is something that many districts can take away from the program. Especially in recent years, TFA has made tremendous strides in providing professional development both at Institute and during the school year based upon data (student tracking, observation, reflective, etc.) In the district in which I currently work, we do not have a data driven professional development system. Teachers are forced to attend meaningless PD sessions that most likely are not what they need. Just like students, teachers need differentiation as well.


text:
Nateglinida (cu denumirea comercială Starlix) este un medicament antidiabetic din clasa meglitinidelor, fiind utilizat în tratamentul diabetului zaharat de tipul 2. Calea de administrare disponibilă este cea orală.

Mecanism de acțiune
Ca și celelalte meglitinide, nateglinida se leagă de canalele de K+ ATP-dependente (notate KATP) de la suprafața membranelor celulelor pancreatice beta. Cresc concentrația intracelulară de potasiu, ceea ce conduce la formarea de potențial electric membranar pozitiv. Depolarizarea duce la deschiderea canalelor de Ca2+ voltaj-dependente. Creșterea nivelelor intracelulare de calciu va duce la creșterea secreției celulare de insulină.

Note

Vezi și
 Mitiglinidă
 Repaglinidă

Antidiabetice
Aminoacizi
Carboxamide
Blocante ale canalelor de potasiu


Simply said, the industry will introduce you to three types of influencers before it kicks you off into retirement.
The first type of an influencer is the Lingard. This influencer is soft in appearance and charming by presentation. Almost all the times, you will try to look at his impact within a team but not see any. Yet, he will always be present at live chats, dominate the number of tweets on trends, have a live story on IG and while you may get tired of seeing him pop up on your timeline, he doesn't stop being active. Some of us unfollow them only to find ourselves following them back all over again.
The second type is the Sergio Ramos. Rough by definition. Looking at their timelines, you will not remember the last time they used their actual picture for the profile. It's a cartoon, a gif, a random figure or just something cynical. They pop up at conversations with unrelated topics to the subject, share links to news pages and funny videos. Then worst of all, they mention your handle over and over again after every tweet.
They will tag you on an IG picture just to capture your attention. At times send you a WhatsApp text then delete it. They are just rough – to you, to your emotions, your abilities and your audience. "Ever wished you could log in to someone's account and delete the account without them knowing?" That's the feeling they leave you with.
They play rough everywhere; Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, DM, name it. You see them taking part in an active conversation and wish they run out of bundles.
The third type of influencer is me. If I read an interesting quote in the morning, I will share it with my friends in that WhatsApp group as if I am the original composer. "Morning guys, quote of the day!" then I will wait and see who will read and even respond to it. A small joke by King'ang'i on classic in the morning and I will act up like am the only one who heard it.
I will see an emotional message on your status and assume it's directed at me. I will want to find out if you are okay. And I will insist. "It's just a status." You will tell me but still I will insist. I will open up my IG account, not post anything but randomly like new images from my friends. I will check your stories before I even get out of bed. I will go through some of your tweets, like a few or even retweet then I will receive that "dear customer…is below 2mb" message, and I will be done for the day.
I love the Ronaldos'. If they is any type of influencer you can be, be them. Some I follow online and offline. Their lives talk to me. The way they do what they do impacts my life. I want to tweet like them, respond to their posts. I want to feel am part of their conversations. They will share an event and I will want to attend. I will even borrow money from family and friends just to buy airtime and keep following them.
I smile when they talk on TV interviews about how success is not all about money yet they pocket thousands from their social media channels.
They simply make me want to change the way I dress, the way I talk and even the way I describe myself online. They make me feel like am existing while they are up there living. Which to a large extend make me wonder, "If we are all created in the image and likeness of God, why then would he allow you to unfollow me?
Do you have a number plate?


text:
Home / All / My People
Langston Hughes's spare yet eloquent tribute to his people has been cherished for generations. Now, acclaimed photographer Charles R. Smith Jr. interprets this beloved poem in vivid sepia photographs that capture the glory, the beauty, and the soul of being a black American today.
Langston Hughes (1902–1967) was born in Joplin, Missouri, and lived much of his life in Harlem, New York. As one America's most cherished chroniclers of the black experience, known for his work during the Harlem Renaissance, Hughes's work was constantly groundbreaking throughout his forty-six-year career. His poetry about the ocean and the symbolism that surrounds it stems from his travels through Africa and Europe working as a seaman.
Charles R. Smith, Jr. is an acclaimed poet and the Coretta Scott King Award-winning illustrator of My People, a picture book based on the poem by Langston Hughes. He is also the illustrator of If, the author and photographer of I Am the World, and he won the Coretta Scott King Author Honor for his book Twelve Rounds To Glory. He grew up in California and attended the Brooks Institute of Photography. A magazine and book cover photographer in addition to a picture book creator, Charles lives with his wife and kids in Poughkeepsie, New York
ALA Notable Children's Books
CCBC Choices (Cooperative Children's Book Council)
NYPL 100 Titles for Reading and Sharing
ALA Coretta Scott King Award for Illustration
Capitol Choices List (DC)
NCTE Notable Children's Books in the Language Arts
Kirkus Best Children's Book
Bank Street Best Books of the Year - with Outstanding Merit
Maryland Blue Crab Young Reader Award Honor Book
Cleveland Public Library Celebrate With Books Selection
Collections: All, Black Lives Matter, Picture Books, Poetry
Woke : A Young Poet's Call to Justice Sold Out
Woke : A Young Poet's Call to Justice
hardcover Synopsis A collection of poems to inspire kids to stay woke and become a new generation of activists. Historically poets have been on the...
Awe-some Days Poems about the Jewish Holidays $18.99
Awe-some Days Poems about the Jewish Holidays
hardcover Synopsis Discover and celebrate all of the Jewish holidays with this warm and engaging poetry collection by the acclaimed author of Mirror Mirror.In this cheerful,...
The People Remember Sold Out
The People Remember
Hardcover Synopsis From award-winning, New York Times bestselling author Ibi Zoboi comes her debut picture book—a tour de force that uses the principles of Kwanzaa to talk...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


I thought to ask if anyone is a Mentor in the hospitality/restaurant space that has a passion for community/changing culture (organically/ground up/holistically). I am looking for a Believer that can help me establish a creative cafe in Southern California. It's so important that I find a Faith-based leader in the industry. Please let me know if this sounds of interest to you and if you're available to discuss further.
I have a dear friend who is a Chef, and a believer. She is wonderful and would be a very good source for you I think.
Thank you, Sandy! I will message you in private.


text:
John Plowden Carrington 1941 – 2022
John Carrington was that rarest of educational supernovas, a Winchester Scholar. (So rare that his Derbyshire prep school gave a day's holiday to the pupils for the achievement). At Winchester, he started to develop his future trading skills, running the school's second-hand book market – as in tomes. He also ran the Scholarship election trading book – as in bookmaking. Having focussed on Classics at Winchester, John went to Cambridge and studied History and English. He graduated and joined the Economist Intelligence Unit in Turkey as a researcher, subsidising his income by exploiting the Lira's wide spreads between banks and tourists, further supplemented by occasional journalistic forays for the Guardian. A brief spell in an ad agency was followed by the Sheffield Telegraph. He then joined The Times, just as the newspaper introduced its Business section in 1967 and wrote what became known as the Tempus column, then later became Deputy City Editor. The realisation that he was far savvier than the people he was writing about made the next move into investment management inevitable.
A desk in a small broking firm in New Broad Street, a manual typewriter with no @ sign (but it did have a key for the Turkish numeral one), and a brace of clients from George Steer's Bonas was the beginning of John Carrington & Co in 1970, which subsequently became Carrington Pembroke. John deliberately shunned the spotlight, preferring to remain a boutique operation, accessible to a select client base which was acquired almost entirely through word of mouth. The company rapidly achieved a solid reputation. As a biographer pointed out, an investment of £10,000 in Carrington's UK Growth Fund, launched in 1986, would have been worth £59,124 by 31 December 1997, against £41,840 if invested in the FT All-Share Index. (A compound rate of return of 17.5% against 13.9% for the market and 12.1% for the average equity growth unit trust).
John's reputation for spotting fledgling situations, maximising them, and understanding and researching better-established companies was widespread but with little discernible coverage in the media. He was, however, noticed. Ken Carter, the former chairman of JLT, said: "John Carrington was one of the shrewdest Fund Managers in the city in his era. He was an early and substantial shareholder in Lloyd Thompson, and when we announced our interims and finals, I always saw him first as he had the most probing questions – satisfy him, and the rest were easy!"
Carrington always found time to help develop talent in the young. Diarmaid Kelly, former Deputy Chairman of Baring Securities and later ING Barings until 1996, said, "I would like to add that Carrers was also a great supporter of and mentor to, the young. Many brokers owe their careers to him – I am one of those brokers."
Framlington's George Luckraft and Nigel Thomas, giants of the fund management world, both acknowledge the debt they owed to John Carrington. Nigel said: "George and I joined John in 1980, and he taught us many lessons he had learnt through the 1960s and 1970s. He could smell hype from a distance and placed great emphasis on investing in small to medium-sized companies with the propensity to grow faster."
John was an astonishing linguist speaking around 11 languages to varying degrees of ability. It perhaps explains John's affinity with emerging global markets, and his natural understanding of sociocultural anthropology gave him insights into the mindsets of many of the people he dealt with. On an investment trip to Korea, he astonished one of the bankers on the third day of the visit by holding simple conversations with waiters etc., When this was remarked upon, John explained how simple it was because Korean was so like Turkish because they were both Finn-Ugric peoples, but with an Altaic language base. More importantly, however, his understanding of language and people and their shared common interests and traits informed his selection of emerging markets in which to invest. Perhaps that explains his decision to develop a fruit farm in Chile from scratch, mainly apples, but now selling tons of Cherries to the Chinese! He thought Chile an excellent place to invest because of its German influences.
John sold his business to the Dutch bank ABN Amro in 1996, and amongst those receiving a substantial dividend on their original investment was John's mother, Barbara. A truly redoubtable, feisty and strong woman, she cut a tiny figure and was known to all John's friends (and John) as The Old Boot, her preferred Monopoly token. The family had lived in Bakewell for many years, and when John launched his business, she was the first to step forward. The Boot loved horseracing, and punting, had horses in training and travelled widely, preferably by cargo ship. In Barbara, it was easy to see where John's character, intelligence and intuition had been forged.
The sale of Carrington Pembroke might have made some think that John would now settle down into genteel retirement, focussing on his bloodstock and racing interests. Instead, Carrington simply continued working across a broad spectrum of interests and areas that held his attention. For example, with Hillsdown founder and Cheveley Park owner David Thompson he was a board member of Windsor, which was sold to Arena Racing in 1999. He had property in Buenos Aires, where he and Jeanne would often go and stay while visiting their many South American friends and various investments. Then he would be back, and then off again, driving to Central Europe to visit friends and investments, the two roles oft-times being hard to separate. He drove thousands of miles a year, taking advantage of his founding investment in the Euro Tunnel, which allowed him to use the service for some nominal sum. He had a small thoroughbred breeding operation in Ireland; he owned many horses in partnerships and with a variety of trainers and had been convinced to run for 1the Council of The Racehorse Owners Association. As a result, he was briefly involved with the ROA's input into race planning, but he resigned after a couple of years. He did not have a very high opinion of racing's administrators.
He started a small analytical operation of racehorse trainers' performances called TrainerTrend. The founding of Betfair, the first peer-to-peer betting operator, meant an opportunity to exploit value, and John rightly surmised there was no more excellent guide to value than in the daily output of trainers' results. John effectively created an algorithm that evaluated, to a baseline number, a trainer's performance over the short and long term. This allowed him to say whether a trainer's entries on any particular day were worth backing or laying (buying or selling). Focussing solely on handicaps, Trainetrend was so successful that it had a 98% strike rate on highlighting horses to lay, and it was almost sold to an investment company when Betfair moved the goalposts on their commission rates, removing the 4% level of tax-free profitability,
If John had a distinguishing feature, it was his pipe smoking. "Professional" pipe smokers will have several pipes on the go because the flavours change as each pipe's wooden bowl heats. Inevitably over the years, there were accidents and more than once, John had to be warned that his jacket was smouldering. There was a rumour that Jeanne fitted fire-proof pockets to several of his casual jackets. There was one story of John visiting a company in Japan where he was thinking of making a significant investment. As was his way, John started running through various pipes during the presentations and then got up and started box-walking. This is an equestrian term for when a horse paces up and down or walks around the inside perimeter of his "box". This can be due to boredom, frustration or general unhappiness in their environment. It was not a good sign with John, but for the Japanese present, it was the most bewildering thing they had ever seen, as they did not know what their reaction should be.
He was medicophobic and it was only the persistent concern of his friends at the constant coughing – which he ignored – and eventually at Bakewell when gasping for breath overnight, the instruction from Boot; "No argument, to doctor!" that he went. The only person John ever obeyed and an action that bought him over a decade. Cancer resulted in his needing a voice box after remedial surgery, and the supporting surgery also impacted the use of a hand, but he bore the various trials and tribulations with great dignity. It often made conversation difficult to understand until one had "tuned in", and it also made dinners and lunches difficult, as he could not raise his voice very loudly. He got over this by banging on the table for attention – and as his hearing was never affected, he could, for example, correct the misuse of the word Argentinian at 100 paces.
He was politically conservative with a capital C and firmly believed that the European federal movement was deeply flawed and would hurt Britain's interests in all scenarios. He had a wide and eclectic range of friends and was loyal to those he befriended. He was a good dinner companion, and Friday nights at the pub in Longcot, where he and Jeanne had several friends, were a fixture for many years. Other than Fridays, he could be found at the Fox in Denchworth. Only in the last two or three years did he break his mantra that a bar was for standing beside, not sitting next to – but there were still avoided pubs because the bar was not high enough to stand beside. His dress sense was eclectic, and some still talk about his Ascot waistcoat made by Jeanne from the many ties John had ruined with various Thai, Indian and hot-sauced foods. Little known, and sadly lost post-cancer surgery, was John's piano playing. He loved the instrument and had an extensive collection of piano recordings… mostly of jazz! Like everything he turned his hand to, literally, in this case, he was hugely talented.
To say John was an eccentric would be a grotesque simplification. He despised laziness, especially in language, and aroused many emotions and reactions in people – often deliberately and mischievously. He loathed television except for the various racing channels and preferred a paper map to a satnav. He enjoyed wit and clever thinking, and he loved a pub quiz because he was competitive. Some found him difficult, but there was always respect and admiration because when John was in the room, it was always clear that he had a superior intellect and a considerable amount of retained knowledge that was like a substantial relational database but on the human level. I once mentioned an obscure broker from a small firm that few would have known … apart from John, who remembered everything about him, including the fact that he had an unhappy marriage. The broker had retired thirty years before, yet John had helped and remembered him all those years later. John's kindness could take a strange turn from time to time, and he once "sponsored" the testicles of one of our dogs to ensure he wasn't neutered.
The John Plowden Carringtons of this world are rare. They can be extraordinarily complex, and you lose so much if you take them at face value because you'll never know the half. It takes time to know their traits and the things that make them tick, smile, get cross, laugh, and cheer. By the time you think you might have cracked it, thirty years have gone, and so have they, and there's no starting over. He will be very much missed.


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Art Culture & History
Types of Arts
College & Institutes
Yong Look Lam
Tan Gaik Hoon
Zaharuddin Sarbini
Zaharuddin Sarbini: Zaharuddin Sarbini is a Malaysian fine artist who was born from Sekinchan in Selangor in 1966. He is a graduate in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Technology Malaysia. However, due to his interest in art since childhood, he has ventured into this area and is popularly known to use fruits in his paintings. Zaharuddin has come a long way as an artist and he has since held numerous shows while also winning awards along the way.
In 1966, he took home the Initiative Young Artist Award given by the Shah Alam Gallery while in 1997, his work received Honourable Mention from the National Art Gallery. A year after that, his 'Jambu Air' work took home the Painting of the Year award where it then travelled to London and Paris to be showcased. Apart from hat, he has also been involved with numerous shows like the Open Shows at the Galeri Shah Alam numerous times as well as in the Philip Morris Asean Art Award competition. His works were also exhibited at the APS Exhibition at the Petronas Galeri while in 2000, he was involved with the Bank Negara Malaysia organized 'Malaysia Tanahairku' show as well as the 'National Dary Art Exhibition' at the City Art Gallery
Zaharuddin Sarbini's Artwork
As Zaharuddin Sarbini is known, his still life paintings are one of the most exemplary in the art scene. In fact, he paints fruits so well, it is often hard to fault him for continuing to do so. In the painting above, entitled 'Belimbing', the object of star fruit is used and springs into life so well by Zaharuddin that one cannot but be compelled to be impressed enuogh to want to pick them off the tree. This painting style requires years of pratice and the use of light colours to show the shading and balance of the painting is fundamentally shown.
In Zaharuddin's Kingfisher painting, this is where he deviates from his nickname of the 'fruit' artist. It is in paintings like these that one can view his works in a different light. In fact, Zaharuddin took a risk here by moving away from fruits and then projecting his technique into still life. The Kingfisher bird is seen in clarity here among the still waters of the background. The scenery in itself is a beauty to behold and hence, with the bird as the focal point, the serenity of the situation is clearly portrayed. It cannot be more peaceful than this.
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