text:
The Coming Anarchy?
The Congolese state seems to me be teetering on the edge of collapse, about to forfeit even the appearance of control over the country. Consider: Outbreaks of localized violence in the east are increasing; an inadequately manned UN intervention brigade is on a collision course against a determined, Rwandan-supported rebel movement; Katanga is openly defying orders from the capital while dealing with its own rebellion; and Kabila's power base in Kinshasa is coming unglued. It's possible that Kabila's regime will continue to muddle through, absent an effective challenger. But the state's hold on power appears as fragile as it's been since the 1996-97 war, and I would not be surprised if there were a coup or some sort of temporary state collapse within the next Friedman unit or so.
Bukavu Online reports that 57 Congolese soldiers died fighting the Union des Forces révolutionnaires du Congo (UFRC), in a battle for control of Chisadu, in Walungu, a mere 60 kms from Bukavu on April 24. Civil society groups are warning that the Mouvement pour la restauration de la démocratie au Congo (MRDC), controlled by General autoproclamé Hilaire Kombi, is threatening to take Beni even as the town's mayor appeals for calm. Walikali has become a free-for-all in the mineral trade, says Christophe Rigaud with Afrikarabia, relaying a report from Prince Kihangi Kyamwami of the NGO, Le Bureau d'Etudes, d'observation et de coordination pour le Développement du territoire de Walikale (BEDEWA).
Meanwhile, negotiations in Kampala between the M23 and the Congolese government appear to have broken down, amid demands from the M23 for a blanket amnesty and reincorporation on its own terms into the Congolese army. Civil society groups are warning that M23 is reinforcing its positions in Rutshuru and Beni in preparation for battle against the UN's intervention brigade. And Congo365 wonders if a military confrontation inevitable.
If a confrontation does take place, it may not end well for the UN. Nadine Gordimer is among many South Africans voicing doubts about the wisdom of their country's participation in the brigade. Thirteen South African troops were killed in the Central African Republic in late March, and questions continue to swirl about whether they were there to protect South Africa's national interests or Jacob Zuma's family's personal investments with ousted president Francois Bozize. Major General Patrick Cammaert, a former UN Force Divisional Commander for MONUC in the DRC, raises a host of troubling questions about the brigade in an analysis authored by Fiona Blythe:
"No one has conducted an analysis of why, over the last five years or so, MONUSCO has been unable or unwilling to fulfill its mandate of protecting civilians, and until we have the outcome of this analysis we cannot determine if the solution is an intervention brigade."
"The issue is not that proactive operations are not already authorized, but that troop contributors are risk averse, and show time and again a lack of political will to employ a full reading of the mandate, leading to accusations that it lacks robustness." In the end, "the mandate is only as strong as the will of the leadership and the TCCs to implement it."
"Is one brigade to be responsible for enforcing peace through the use of force and the other not? Is one set of rules of engagement to differ from the other, and if not, why deploy a new brigade with the same rules of engagement and force posture as the existing one?"
Reviewing the litany of potential pitfalls analysts worry may be facing the brigade, Christophe Rigaud concludes with one of his own: If the brigade focuses its energies on M23, the 20 or so other rebel groups operating in the Kivus may paradoxically end with greater room and freedom to maneuver.
And Jason Stearns raises the possibility of a re-internationalization of the Congo wars, this time featuring overt conflict between two African military heavyweights: South Africa and Rwanda. The humanitarian consequences would be appalling.
Posted by David Aronson at 11:05 AM No comments:
I have written before about Congo being policy shorthand for "hopeless situation the cognoscenti know we're not going to do anything serious about," but with the clamor growing for us to intervene in Syria, I think it's worth pointing out that we could save far more lives and put far fewer US troops in danger--and at much lower geopolitical risk--if we were to make a determined effort to help the DRC. I do wish someone would buttonhole people like Anne-Marie Slaughter and ask her to seriously answer this question from Obama. (Not, for that matter, that I think he intended the question seriously.) How is it, exactly, that Arab lives have now risen to our level of consciousness--as they did for example when we decided to intervene in Libya--but Congolese lives still don't? Why doesn't the situation in Congo raise the specter of our moral failure in Rwanda? Why the all-but complete silence from the internationalist humanitarian crowd about the DRC?
In a situation like Syria, I have to ask, can we make a difference in that situation? Would a military intervention have an impact? How would it affect our ability to support troops who are still in Afghanistan? What would be the aftermath of our involvement on the ground? Could it trigger even worse violence or the use of chemical weapons? What offers the best prospect of a stable post-Assad regime? And how do I weigh tens of thousands who've been killed in Syria versus the tens of thousands* who are currently being killed in the Congo?
*And by tens of thousands, he of course means millions.
Had Enough of Enough?
Alex de Waal at the World Peace Foundation takes one hell of a whack at the Enough Project:
Reclaiming Activism
For most of my adult life I introduced myself as an "activist" first and a writer, researcher, or practitioner of humanitarian action or peacemaking second. Then, about seven or eight years ago, I became rather uncomfortable with the word. Not because I had diluted my personal commitment to working in solidarity with suffering and oppressed people, but because a group of people, in whose company I didn't want to be, were claiming not only to be activists but to define "activism" itself. I am speaking of course about the policy lobbyists in Washington DC, also known as "designer activists," who took on the role of promoting certain causes related to Africa, and who arrogated to themselves the privilege of defining these problems and identifying and pursuing ostensible solutions. It was no accident that those purported solutions placed the "activists" themselves at the center of the narrative, because many of them were Hollywood actors—or their hangers on—for whom the only possible role is as the protagonist-savior. The actions they promoted all had one thing in common: using more U.S. power around the world.
I was not the only one to find this arrogation of "activism" offensive, demeaning and counter-productive. One of the most refreshing aspects of our recent seminar at the World Peace Foundation was finding out just how much the consensus among national civil society activists from Uganda and Congo, as well as Sudan, has coalesced around the view that the basic narratives and policy prescriptions of the Enough Project and its ilk are not only simplified and simplistic, but actually pernicious. Theirs isn't activism: it's insider lobbying within the Washington establishment using celebrity hype as leverage. They are not just a benign variant of advocacy, perhaps somewhat simplified: they are wrong.
The disquiet about Enough's style of activism and agenda-driven policy recommendations seems to me to be reaching a tipping point. The conflict minerals debate, for example, is all-but over among serious Congo researchers: Just about every serious independent researcher and NGO to have studied the issue reached similar conclusions: DF-1502 has done nothing to end the conflicts, harmed the people it was meant to help and helped the people it was meant to harm. The question is: Are Enough's funders listening?
To be clear, I probably have fewer misgivings about Enough's style of advocacy than some other scholars and activists. I don't mind them promoting simplistic narratives or enlisting celebrity spokespeople, for example, just as I don't mind anti-poverty groups that pull on heartstrings or environmental groups featuring polar bears desperately swimming toward ice floes. I don't even mind Prendergast's self-promotional style, or at any rate, not that much. I find it in poor taste, but I appreciate that it's incredibly hard to enlist Americans in causes far from home and about which they have no first-hand experience. My quarrel with Enough is much simpler: The policy they promoted to help end the conflicts in the Congo--the conflict minerals campaign--caused irremediable damage to the million or so people who depend on the trade for their livelihood, while doing nothing to help end the conflicts. And what's worse: They were warned of the dangers their campaign would cause by knowledgeable, local experts, yet went ahead with it anyway.
Posted by David Aronson at 9:33 AM No comments:
The Lake that Probably Won't Kill You (anytime soon)
Looks safe from up here
[UPDATED 5/6 w/ embedded video--see below] One of the most poignant memories I have of the Asian Tsunami is of a Sri Lankan official, in near-tears, trying to explain why his government hadn't anticipated the catastrophe. "We have three thousand years of court chronicles," he said. "There's no history of anything like this ever happening."
I remembered that episode when I read that the Congolese government had temporarily banned fishing and bathing on Lake Kivu in February out of concern that carbon dioxide eruptions along the shoreline had caused a number of recent drownings. Kivu is one of three lakes in Africa known to experience periodic lake overturns, in which gas that has been dissolved and compressed in the water suddenly erupts from deep inside the lake, with potentially devastating consequences. Two small lakes in the Cameroons famously overturned in the mid-1980s, killing 1,500 people.
Lake Kivu is not only 2,000 times larger than those lakes—it is located in a far more densely populated area, with over three million people living along its shores. When I lived in Bukavu, I was always told the chances of an overturn were virtually nil, but a quick google search led me to an NBC article suggesting that overturns occur with reasonable frequency--on the order of once a millenium or so. Given the number of potential casualties, this seemed often enough to be a matter of concern.
So I wrote a half dozen scientists who have studied the lake to try to find out more about our state of knowledge regarding the lake's dangers.[1] On the whole, they seemed fairly sanguine. Here's what I learned:
1) The lake is currently stable, chemically speaking; the methane is sunk at the bottom of the lake and there's virtually no chance of it spontaneously welling up However, there is some evidence that methane concentrations in parts of the lake are increasing, and on current trends this could lead to an unstable situation in about a century or so.
2) The amounts of methane and carbon dioxide bubbling up around the surface of the lake are entirely normal, occur in many lakes, and present zero danger. There was almost certainly no good reason for the government to ban fishing and swimming.
3) Some monitoring of the lake composition and volatility is being done but more could and should be done. For one thing, we don't know whether the methane concentrations are increasing in a steady and predictable fashion. And we're still a long way from really understanding what might trigger an overturn.
4) The geologic evidence suggests overturns occur on the order of once every few hundred to once every few thousand years (there's a difference of opinion about this). These would have devastated the lake's biota, but it's not clear how catastrophic they were beyond the lake's shoreline. What matters is how explosive these overturns were, and the evidence on that question is very hard to read.
5) There's a real but tiny risk of catastrophe. Given the current chemical stability of the lake, an overturn wouldn't happen spontaneously, as it did in the Cameroons, but would have to be triggered by a major volcanic or seismic event, such as an eruption from Nyiragongo, near Goma—which would of course be a catastrophe in its own right—or an underwater landslide associated with a major earthquake. Scientists have recently uncovered evidence of volcanic activity at the bottom of the lake in the north basin; this is a matter of an as-yet unquantified concern. That said, the lake experienced both an earthquake and an eruption in the past decade without triggering an overturn, so the dangers should not be exaggerated.
6) On the whole, methane extraction is not only a good investment (the methane in the lake could be worth $20 billion), but probably wise ecologically, in that de-gassing the lake under controlled conditions reduces the already minimal risk of an overturn. One concern: that the de-gassed waters be re-infused into the lake so as not to disturb its delicate surface biochemistry in a way that that harms Kivu's small fishing industry.
7) Bottom line: Given current conditions, the risks of an overturn are minimal. That said, should a massive volcanic event occur all bets would be off. The problem is that there would be no way to predict whether the eruption would trigger an overturn. Nor, given the short warning time volcanoes provide, would there be any realistic way to get the millions of Kivu-proximate residents to safety, even if the decision were made to evacuate.
Oh, and those rumors about the gas bubbling up and silently asphyxiating unfortunate fisherman out on their canoes? Old sailors' tales.
[1] In particular, I'd like to thank Anthony Vodacek at the Rochester Institute of Technology; Thomas C. Johnson, at the University of Minnesota Duluth; Martin Schmid at Eawag Aquatic Research; Alberto Vierra Borges, at University of Liège Allée; and Jean-Pierre Descy, at the University of Namur, Belgium, who all gave generously of their time. Needless to say, all errors are my own.
5/6: I just came upon this video, which provides an interesting overview of the
technical and political challenges of extracting the methane from Kivu.
Is Congo Spiraling out of Control?
Four reads today provide the most dire evidence yet that Congo is spiraling dangerously out of control. None suggests that an implosion is imminent; combined, however, they paint a picture of a government that is failing in every respect: unable to control its territory and in danger of collapsing or being overthrown in Kinshasa.
First, the ICG has an excellent backgrounder on last month's massacre in Lubumbashi. Money quote:
The unexpected occupation of Lubumbashi, the second largest city in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), by 440 Mai-Mai fighters last month is another sign of the central government's lack of capacity to govern, ensure security or pursue reform. The occupation, which resulted in 35 dead and 53 wounded, serves as a reminder that the country's crisis is not limited to North Kivu, in eastern Congo, or to warlords.
Second, Pete Jones has a sobering update on the Mai Mai Morgan operating in Ituri: "For nine months a brutal militia has made repeated attacks on villagers in remote areas of the Ituri rainforest. The Mai Mai Morgan, led by a man named Paul Sadala who likes to call himself Morgan, has created fear and suffering wherever it has attacked..."
Third, Agoravox details a confrontation earlier this week between Monusco forces and M23 rebels. The rebels blocked a UN convoy it suspected of carrying supplies for the proposed intervention brigade. The convoy was released only the arrival of heavily armed Monusco troops prepared to fight. The article also speculates about whether Rwanda and Uganda will continue to support M23 even after the brigade arrives. And it worries that the intervention brigade will be woefully underequipped for the mission en-tasked it.
Fourth, Christophe Rigaud at Afrikarabia raises some troubling questions about the latest alleged coup attempt against Kabila, the third such in the past two months. Last Thursday, April 11, the government announced it had arrested 13 individuals plotting an attack on the presidential convoy. But the evidence against this latest group of coup plotters is thin, says Rigaud. Many of the alleged plotters are affiliated with veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi; he and other opposition leaders are claiming that this is simply an attempt to discredit them.
There are two possibilities here, neither of them good. The first is that the coup allegations are true. In that case, shadowy figures on the fringes of Congolese political society believe that the regime is weak enough to make a coup attempt feasible. The second is that the charges are trumped up, which means that the government is becoming increasingly paranoid and dysfunctional. It's hard to figure out which option is worse.
WSJ: "Opportunities for illicit gain only increased after passage of DF-1502"
[UPDATED BELOW 4/19]
Some readers might remember that I set out a list of predictions regarding the impact of Dodd-Frank 1502 back in February 2012. I wrote then that while a single correct or incorrect prediction wouldn't prove or disprove my overall assessment of DF-1502, they would constitute a marker for future reference and a baseline of credibility. My third prediction was this:
3) The volume and value of the gold trade in e. Congo largely would be unaffected by DF-1502, because there's simply no viable way to control it.
Today the Wall Street Journal features a long piece, with reporting from Goma, Mumbai, New York and London, which says that the trade in gold was not only NOT affected by passage of the law, but that "opportunities for illicit gains only increased after the U.S. in 2010 passed a Wall Street overhaul, known as Dodd-Frank."
It's important to remember that the best estimates are that gold is and has been for a long time the most important and valuable of the minerals being artisanally mined in the Kivus. So the fact that the law has had only adverse impacts on the region's dynamics is hardly incidental.
It would also appear to contradict The Enough Project's repeated assertion that the legislation is "making it harder to profit violently and illegally from mineral smuggling."
The complete WSJ piece is available below the fold, for readers who aren't subscribers (or don't have free access to it via Starbucks, as I do.)
[UPDATE 4/19] I see Enough wrote a rebuttal contesting the Journal's reporting. They sidestep the central issue raised by the Journal: that gold is an internationally valued commodity traded in areas utterly unconcerned about conflict minerals and compact enough to make smuggling easy. Instead, they urge that more be done: "As the trade in conflict gold increases, now is the time for the Obama administration to have a major impact." I don't want to get into the details of their arguments--life is just too damn short--but consider this: A person can buy weed a mile from the White House, despite the hundreds of billions of dollars we as a nation have spent during our 30+ year "War on Drugs." But Enough's contention is that an SEC regulation will prevent Congolese warlords from trading gold with Indian, Lebanese or Chinese merchants in the most ungoverned regions of Central Africa. That doesn't seem terribly credible to me, but give them this: They will never lack for opportunities to declare that "Now is the time to do more."
The Other Casualties of War
Pete Jones has a piece in The Guardian about an attack last June on a village named Epulu in the Okapi Wildlife Reserve. The perpetrators were Mai Mai Morgan; they reportedly killed three people and ate the heart of one of them. They also killed all 14 of reserve's captive Okapi. The reason for their ire? Epulu is a base camp for the wildlife rangers assigned to stop the ongoing slaughter of the forest's remaining elephants. Some 60 percent of Central Africa's elephants have been killed in the past decade alone, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society, to fuel a growing demand for ivory in east Asian countries.
The slaughter of the Okapi was a devastating blow to the reserve's conservationists. Rosemarie Ruf, one of the zoo's co-founders, says it was a brutal end to a lifetime's work. "Twenty-five years of work is gone," she said. "All that effort, all that money. It's my life which has been.... I don't want to say ruined, but here now I'm standing in front of nothing."
Alarmingly, the article suggests that many of the region's inhabitants are sympathetic to the mai mai aims, if not their means. Some Mbuti are upset that the reserve has cut into their traditional domain:
"The forest is where we find what we need to survive" said one pygmy leader. "[The park authorities] have cut our land, there is now a part we cannot access. It has worsened in the last few years, since the RFO got bigger. We feel like the big non-governmental organizations and the rangers have privileged the animals over the people."
Jon Rosen in Roads and Kingdoms reported on this same attack in November, in the epilog to an otherwise upbeat travel report on life among the pre-agrarian Mbuti. (His numbers are a little different: six people and 15 okapi dead.) Rosen manages to avoid the dangers of exoticizing or sentimentalizing the Mbuti lifestyle, while still making it sound like an slacker's idea of heaven, with lots of drum playing, group hunting, and all-afternoon bong tripping:
With the smoking, drumming, and dancing in full swing, my mind drifted to an article by the geographer Jared Diamond that I'd read – along with Fukuyama's book – in preparation for our trip. In the piece, titled "The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race," Diamond argues that the transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture – long considered a fundamental driver of human progress – was actually a colossal blunder.
The M23 rebels have penned an open letter to Obama, asking him to scotch the proposed intervention brigade for eastern Congo.
The inquiry into human rights activist Floribert Chebeya's assassination has again been delayed, and the organization he headed, Voix des sans-voix, continues to boycott the proceedings, saying they are a whitewash for the man almost certainly responsible for his death, former police chief John Numbi.
Reuters has a good brief round-up on the DRC's political/economic risks. The key questions, with my best guesses in parentheses:
- Will M23 rebels return to arms as peace talks in Uganda splutter? (prob not)
- Will resurgence of pro-separatist violence in Katanga discourage investment? (prob not)
- Can the economy keep growing on the back of Katanga's copper production despite security fears? (yes, but slowly and fitfully)
- Can Congo re-establish a loan deal with the IMF? (yes)
- Will Kabila finally take any steps towards tackling endemic corruption? (no, corruption is not a bug, it's the way the system works)
- Will a reform to the mining code expected this year damage investor confidence? (no--Ponyo will see to that; but what the mining code says and what it actually takes to do biz in Congo are two different things)
- Will a plan to get state miner Gecamines back on its feet succeed? (eventually, maybe)
Can't possibly be true: South Africa is planning to invest $20 billion in Inga, says DigitalCongo. Seems too high by an order of magnitude.
On the airstrip under the active volcano Mount Nyiragongo,
an Antonov AN-12 cargo plane prepares to leave Goma.
Guy Tillim, in Vanity Fair
With about a dozen crashes in the past two years, the DRC remains the most dangerous place to be a plane: Radio Okapi reports on a conference held to address airplane safety. Which reminds me to plug this 2007 piece on Congo's aviators by William Langewiesche.
Questions continue to emerge about whether South Africa's recent decisions to participate in peacekeeping operations in CAR and now DRC are driven by the desire of the well-connected elite to protect their investments. More tk on this.
Posted by David Aronson at 1:32 PM No comments:
I think it's safe to say that the M23 is not thrilled about the proposed intervention brigade:
Kigali, 2013 04 06
Open Letter to H.E. Barack Obama, President of the United States of America
Your Excellency:
On behalf of Rufari Foundation, I have the honor and privilege to beckon you, and through you, your other UN Security Council peers, to attract your joint attention and diligence on the inescapable necessity, imperative rather, to nullify UN Resolution 2089 prescribing the dispatch of a 3 000-ish strong offensive intervention force into Congo. Failure to do precisely that, Excellency Barack Obama, will entail among other wanton consequences that of turning the entire Great Lakes region of Africa into a mammoth fireball, and the world far adrift will register in no small way adverse consequences thereof.
Posted by David Aronson at 8:22 AM 1 comment:
Quote of the Day II
"We are not scared to go to war," SANDF spokesman Xolani Mabanga told SAfm."If they [M23] declare war against the SA National Defence Force personnel, we are ready to tackle them. We, as the SANDF, will never be deterred by any circumstances to pursue or do what we are asked to do by the government of South Africa."
Take it down a notch, guys. Remember, the point is to not have to resort to force.
Hmmm. Much as I decry the evasive and muffled language of officialdom, I'm not sure that this is the kind of message the DRC wants to be sending out:
"If nothing is done, Katanga is a powder keg and anything can happen," Claudel Andre Lubaya, a legislator who is the rapporteur for the parliamentary commission for defence and security, said on Tuesday following a visit to Lubumbashi.
"Persistent insecurity could lead to investors pulling out. That's why the government must not take only cosmetic measures."
"A curiosity of the last decade of western advocacy on conflicts is that a wholly different relationship has arisen between the "activist" and the affected community. Led by groups such as the Enough Project, "activism" has been redesigned as an entirely domestic endeavor: changing policies in western capitals by mobilizing constituencies around celebrities and publicity. Success is measured by the extent to which advocates can convince a domestic population that simple actions they can take will produce fundamental change in distant conflict-ridden places. Through highly-produced multimedia products, celebrity spokespersons, and simplified narratives, a new set of practices is developing. Invariably, the answers these campaigns propose are framed as apolitical: clothed in ethical absolutes, impervious to critique, and challenging to the activist's own government only to the extent that it is called upon to do more. The message is one of empowerment—but the empowerment of a domestic constituency, consisting of people not affected by conflict."
Bridget Conley, Advocacy in Conflict
Posted by David Aronson at 6:05 PM 2 comments:
The Lake that Wants to Kill You
I just heard about this, but apparently the government back in mid February forbade all fishing and swimming in Lake Kivu for an indeterminate period, saying that high levels of methane and carbon dioxide had caused several deaths by drowning. The fishermen are understandably miffed.
Lake Kivu is one of Africa's three "exploding lakes," along with the infamous killer lakes in Cameroon, that experience periodic lake overturns, where the compressed gas within the lake surfaces, poisoning the surrounding landscape.
I used to swim in Lake Kivu, back in the day, off the Peace Corps dock [1]. It was said that bubbles of methane would occasionally rise to the surface, killing fishermen out casting their nets in the evenings. The pirogues would drift back to shore with no one on board, and days later the men's bodies would mysteriously wash up on shore. You can imagine the legends that ensued.
I've always heard that Kivu poses no Cameroon-style threat, that the likelihood of an actual sudden and violent overturn is vanishingly small--but this NBC piece from a couple of years ago says that a catastrophic event takes place in Kivu once a millenium. Given the millions of people who live nearby, I wish I could be confident that the international community is keeping an eye out on this. I learn from Wikipedia that a new effort is underway to tap the lake's vast reserves of methane, naturally, from the Rwandan side. And that "kivu" means lake in "Bantu language." But nothing on whether anyone's looking out for the three million people who live on its perimeter.
[1] I myself was not a PCV, but had lots of friends who were.
Posted by David Aronson at 4:07 PM 1 comment:
Amid Growing Doubts about Brigade, Rumors of M23 Reinforcements
Doubts about the planned intervention brigade for eastern Congo are growing, as renewed questions about the killing of 13 South African troops in Bangui last month threaten to put the kibosh on South Africa's anticipated participation in the peacekeeping effort. Meanwhile various Congolese news sources are alleging that the M23 rebels are receiving reinforcements from Rwandan and Ugandan sources in preparation for a renewed assault on Goma.
Reactions are Mixed
The Congolese government appears delighted by the UN resolution and views the proposed intervention brigade as a clear diplomatic victory. Ubiquitous government spokesman Lambert Mende told the BBC the brigade would bring the region "some hope of peace." If the Congolese government feels any shame at its inability to protect its own citizens, it is successfully keeping those feelings in check.
Congolese civil society and opposition parties also appear heartened by the proposed arrival of what they have already nicknamed the "super blue helmets" (or "supers casques bleus"--it sounds better in French). The war has gone on for too long, said one typical CSO leader, interviewed on Radio Okapi. Opposition leader and South Kivu native Vital Kamerhe also praised the brigade, though he lamented how long it's taken for Monusco to develop a forceful response to the rebels.
The Rwandan response has been more tepid. The usually garrulous foreign minister, Louise Mushikiwabo, has said nothing, and Rwandan news sources have made little mention of the brigade. The only editorial to appear about it in the government-controlled New Times warned that providing additional resources to Monusco is like "giving money to someone who has intentionally infected you with a terminal disease and asking them to use that money to cure you!"
The M23 are predictably denouncing the intervention brigade in the most forceful terms. Bertrand Bisimwa, the group's president, said at a press briefing at Bunagana on Monday that "from now on, peacekeeping forces will wage war on groups of citizens who are demanding good governance in our country." The rebels are promising (via twittersphere) to fight fire with fire. Said one tweet, directed at the South African government, one of the countries tapped to provide troops to the brigade: "We don't want to kill our brothers from SA. We are asking them to support peace in DRC, not to come to fight."
IRIN takes stock of the M23 rebel movement's prospects at its one-year anniversary. In brief, the Makenga-Bosco split may have sufficiently weakened the movement to make a deal possible with the Congolese government:
Any deal is likely to involve the integration of Makenga's fighters into FARDC, with lower cadre fighters automatically integrated and higher ranking officers considered for integration on a case-by-case basis. However, analysts say the re-integration method has not worked in the past and must be rethought.
"M23 integration in FARDC is feasible but is not suitable. The policy of repeated integration of armed groups in FARDC is [contributing] to the fragmentation and militarization of FARDC," Marc-Andre Lagrange, DRC senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, told IRIN via email. "Since that approach has proven, with M23, to be a failure, the DRC government with MONUSCO and UNSC should look for another option."
According to a recent article in the newsletter Africa Confidential: "Experts broadly agree that some kind of agreement between Kinshasa and M23 is in the offing and will be signed soon, but reliable sources in North Kivu diverge on what the outcome will be. Some feel that Makenga will reintegrate his troops into the FARDC, while others suggest that Makenga and [new] M23 political leader Bertrand Bisimwa can stay independent of the army while not being seen as a 'negative force'."
So it is not clear whether to take Bisimwa's belligerence at face value or see it as part of M23's negotiation strategy: In the face of an ever-weakening military position, loudly threaten to make trouble in order to get the best deal possible.
No word (that I've seen) on how the FDLR or local mai mai groups view the brigade.
Preparations Are Ongoing: But for War or Peace?
Monusco chief Roger Meese travelled to Bukavu last week to evaluate the security situation. Monusco's military spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Félix Basse, confirmed that the brigade would work in concert with FARDC and said that an advance staff is already in Goma to prepare for the brigade's arrival.
Jules Hakizimwami, Speaker of the North-Kivu Provincial Assembly, held a press briefing in Goma on Thursday, April 4, in which he denounced Rwanda for sending troop reinforcements to M23 positions, in preparation he said, for a renewed assault on Goma.
Friday's Kinshasa newspapers contained detailed if unconfirmed reports of Rwanda and Uganda reinforcing the M23 rebels. Under the headline "Rwanda and Uganda are preparing an attack on Goma," the newspaper l'Avenir said that Uganda dispatched some 2800 troops across the frontier at Rwindi earlier in the week to reinforce the M23. Not to be outdone, Le Potentiel, citing sources in North Kivu, reported that Rwandan troops entered Congo at Kibumba.
Alex Engwete draws the details together: "According to observers Rwanda--and Uganda, incidentally--wants M23 to reoccupy Goma--and eventually attack Bukavu--ahead of the deployment of Monusco's Intervention Brigade so as: (1) to preempt this intervention by rendering the costs of its collateral damage prohibitive in urban settings; and (2) to force the DRC government to heed M23 "claims."
The government is holding further talks with M23 rebels in Kampala this week, with the hope of being able to sign a final and inclusive peace agreement on Thursday, April 11.
And Doubts Mount
South Africa's opposition party Democratic Alliance is demanding that the government reveal whether South Africa is "going to war" in DRC as part of the UN's proposed intervention force. Thirteen South African were killed last month in the CAR in a futile effort to defend President François Bozizé's from rebels. More tk on how this will affect SA's willingness to participate in the brigade.
David Bosco at Foreign Policy says that the brigade's interventionist mission is "unprecedented" only in a narrow sense: The UN has participated in kinetic, peace-enforcing actions over the years. The most significant such operation was in the Congo itself in the early months and years after independence; that operation proved so controversial that it "helped to ensure that the U.N. funded no new peacekeeping operation for a decade." He wonders if the brigade has been given the resources it needs, and warns that if things don't go right, "political will for the operation will likely melt away."
And The Irish Times recalls that the previous UN mission in the early 1960s was a "trial by fire" for Irish peacekeepers and warns that the UN's track record "does not inspire optimism."
Tweet of the Day
We need Peaceful solution wiv Kabila's corrupt gov but If Tanzania Malawi and SA attacks us we will not give them a sweet and blow kisses
— M23 Congo RDC (@m23congordc) April 5, 2013
Twitter Bleg
The study of how rumors spread in person and now on the net is apparently a recognized sub-discipline in psychology (and of intense interest to marketers). An interesting case study for a masters' thesis might be this week's "tweme" that MI6 was responsible for the assassination of the Congo's first prime minister, Patrice Lumumba. It arose from a very casual assertion that appeared two weeks ago in the letters section of the London Review of Books. Although almost immediately debunked by specialists, tweets proclaiming that the Brits were behind Lumumba's death at one point were spreading at a rate of 2 to 4 a minute. In fact, I suspect by now that "everyone" "knows" that the Brits killed him. (The Belgians did, actually, w/ American help.) Perhaps one of my readers, familiar with the tools to chart and analyze tweet mentions, could try to figure out how and why this tweme spread. I'd be more than happy to supply background info.
Your Tweets of the Day
Phil is apparently unaware of my own history with the GoE.
Posted by David Aronson at 12:54 PM No comments:
The Silence of the Billionaires
Buffett makes a point
So about that Buffett Foundation report that's so critical of the UN Group of Experts? Neither the Foundation nor the groups it contracted to write up the report are willing to take questions about it.[1] I've been trying to gin up some expression of regret about their reluctance to stand behind their work--you know, in a tone more of Seurat than of Ingres--but really, is anyone remotely surprised?
The basic argument of the report is: The GoE's mandate was to work with the governments of the region to identify the root causes of the violence in eastern Congo. For reasons not ours to determine (says the report), cooperation between the GoE and the Rwandan government broke down. The GoE therefore failed to do what was required of it--work with the GoR--violating its mandate and thus casting doubt on its findings. QED.[2]
Well, that's just ridiculous. First, there's zero doubt about who broke off the relationship between the GoE and the Rwandan government. The Rwandans did. They have a history of assassinating internal dissidents and PNG'ing Western critics. See this article by Reyntjens for a lengthy chronicle of these attacks. By contrast, the GoE never stopped trying to contact the Rwandans. Second, it introduces an aneurysm-inducing premise: that a government can undermine the findings of a human rights group simply by refusing to cooperate with it. If that were so, the sound you'd be hearing is dictators everywhere slapping their palms into their foreheads and exclaiming, "Why didn't I think of that?" Ça fait rêver.
Buffett's second line of criticism is to paint the GoE and its findings as outliers. Would that this were true. In fact, Rwanda's record of plunder and atrocity in eastern Congo is perhaps the most exhaustively detailed human rights crime of our age. The latest report is not even particularly damning in that respect. Previous GoE reports have reached similar conclusions. And there's the mapping report, and literally dozens of reports from the usual suspects: Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the International Crisis Group, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the ICTR, the State Department HR bureau, not to mention Stephen Smith and Howard French and Rene Lemarchand and Jason Stearns and Gerard Prunier and above all the late and terribly missed Alison Desforges. Yet Rwanda always reacts as if the latest criticism were some new and terrible affront. For instance:
HRW's May 2001 report 'Uprooting the rural poor in Rwanda' was said to be 'baseless and full of lies', and HRW stood accused of disseminating 'a propaganda that undermines human rights by promoting ethnic division among Rwandans'.
A report by AI on the human toll of the Rwandan occupation of eastern DRC was characterized as 'outright bias, lack of objectivity and outright lies'. Amnesty's observations were 'clearly unsubstantiated' and 'a reflection of the longstanding antipathy that AI has demonstrated towards Rwanda'.
The 2005 US Department of State's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices was said to be 'riddled with inaccuracies and inconsistencies', and most of its observations were simply denied.
When a report discussed in the Security Council documented Rwanda's continuing support for the DRC rebel group CNDP, the government denounced 'the dangerous inaccuracies and outright lies' contained in the report, whose objectives were 'malicious' and which was replete with accusations 'resulting from hearsay, perceptions and stereotypes'.
Given this history, it's no surprise that Rwanda reacted vociferously to the latest UN GoE report. The question is, why in this case have Kagame's Western supporters followed suit? Why have Buffett and Blair, among others, tried so hard to discredit this one particular report--out of the eighty or so that have come out in the past decade? Again, we don't know for sure, because they're not talking. But I think what's changed is that an entire generation of Western policymakers have come of age without having incurred the guilt of standing by during the genocide. They are, therefore, less cowed by Rwanda's indignation machinery, less willing to put up with its nonsense. The GoE report came on the heels of reports from AI and HRW that also alleged Rwandan complicity in fomenting the rebellion in eastern Congo, and in the shadow of the Mapping Report, with its mountain of evidence of mass killings in the region. The GoE report is--or is feared to be--the straw on the camel's back, the tipping point, the nudge that finally turns opinion against Kagame. And for that it has to be furiously resisted.
The ironic thing is that Buffett et Tony have a valid point to make: Cutting aid is far from the optimum policy response to Rwanda's transgressions. Aid works comparatively well in Rwanda, and it benefits a lot of people who are in no way responsible for what their government is doing. What the policy alternatives might be is a topic I'm working on now.
[1] It's not exactly clear from the text what role these two groups played in the authorship of the report, and of course, they're not taking questions. One bills itself as "strategy consultants," whose approach is to "get the right answer," and the other--well, its web site is a single almost blank page. Which makes sense, because it's owned and run by an ex-CIA agent.
[2] Lest you find that synopsis too absurd to be credible, here is how the report summarizes its own key findings: "The UN's search for the sources of instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is both timely and commendable. However, throughout 2012, cooperation and diplomacy between the Group of Experts (GoE) and the Governments of Rwanda (GoR) and Uganda (GoU), elements required by the GoE's UN mandate, broke down. This fatally undermines the value of the GoE's important work and increases risk in the region. It is not significant who was first to withdraw cooperation. The failure in process undermines the credibility of the findings, limiting potential policy prescriptions that could reduce violence in the Great Lakes region."
In the meantime, here for your enjoyment is the totality of my interaction with the Buffett Foundation.
From: David Aronson
Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2013 1:45 PM
To: Contact
Subject: HGBF Contact - Report on GoE findings
To whom at the Foundation can I direct questions about the GoE report you've just published?
www.CongoResources.org
Posted by David Aronson at 10:25 AM 2 comments:
Ludo De Witte "We have reconstructed the last days of #Lumumba from hour to hour and not a word about a role of MI6" @mushamukad #DRC #Congo
— congofriends (@congofriends) April 2, 2013
In the business, this is what is called a Marshall McLuhan moment.
Lumumba, the First Rendition
Still making trouble
The question of who killed Lumumba is in the news again, thanks to a just-published letter in the London Review of Books which reports that a retired MI6 agent, before her death, claimed responsibility for organizing the assassination:
It so happens that I was having a cup of tea with Daphne Park – we were colleagues from opposite sides of the Lords – a few months before she died in March 2010. She had been consul and first secretary in Leopoldville, now Kinshasa, from 1959 to 1961, which in practice (this was subsequently acknowledged) meant head of MI6 there. I mentioned the uproar surrounding Lumumba's abduction and murder, and recalled the theory that MI6 might have had something to do with it. 'We did,' she replied, 'I organised it.'
OK, two things. First, this is so perfectly British you can practically smell the buttered crumpets. It reads like the start of a promising beach novel featuring well-born Brits setting the world to rights during the Cold War (think Nancy Mitford meets John Le Carre). Second, as evidence, it's almost useless. I've read a lot on the Lumumba assassination; I never heard anyone claim that the British were a lead player in the events unfolding then. Why would they be? This was nasty feud for control over a newly independent, mineral-rich country in the heart of Africa, contested by the US, the Belgians, and the Soviets, with the UN acting as both player and referee. The British had no colonial history and few resources or personnel in the country. Unlike the Belgians, they had no stake in its huge mineral wealth. Nor were they afflicted with the perfervid millennialism of the major Cold War protagonists.
Ludo de Witte has written extensively on the Belgian role in the assassination. Bottom line: they pulled the trigger, dismembered the body, and dissolved it in acid. His book--and a subsequent parliamentary investigation--were considered definitive enough to prompt the Belgian government to offer an official apology to the Congolese for their primary and direct responsibility for Lumumba's death. The American role was more complex. In a national security meeting in August 1960, Eisenhower is reported to have uttered words to the effect of "Who will rid me of this man?"--words that were understood, at any rate, as an order to murder him. The CIA's man in Kinshasa at the time, Larry Devlin, published a self-absolving memoir in 2008 claiming that while he sought to neutralize Lumumba politically, he never authorized or supported US efforts to kill him--even when he was directed to do so by CIA headquarters. Steve Weissman, who's pursued this story for decades, says Devlin was lying his ass off wasn't being entirely forthcoming, as you'll see from this video of a 2012 Wilson Center event.
In brief, Weissman says, Devlin participated in a variety of unsuccessful attempts to assassinate Lumumba, including the infamous attempt to poison his toothpaste; he encouraged other Congolese to carry out the act; and he bought off as many anti-Lumumba people as he could, including a promising young army sergeant named Joseph Mobutu. Then, when the occasion presented itself, he almost certainly greenlighted the decision (made, ultimately, by Mobutu and other Congolese leaders) to transfer Lumumba to Katanga, where certain death awaited him.[1] Devlin also withheld from the ambassador and his superiors in Langley his foreknowledge of the plan to send Lumumba to his death, out of concern that Washington might seek to countermand it.[2]
On second thought, Lumumba's death is a little like a British murder mystery; in particular, Agatha Christie's Orient Express, where, you'll remember, everyone has a hand in the killing. Lumumba's Congolese rivals wanted him dead and brutalized him repeatedly; the Belgians pulled the trigger and disposed of the corpse; and the Americans, operating at times on their own individual initiative and in opposition to fickle and contradictory DC policy preferences, made sure the process proceeded smoothly. As for the British--well, Dame Daphne Park would not be the first elderly person to recall for herself a greater role in world events than the evidence would support.
[1] Remember that in the days prior to his being rendered to Katanga, Lumumba was in the hands of his enemies in Leopoldville (Kinshasa), having been captured on his way to Stanleyville (Kisangani) after escaping house arrest. Chief among those enemies was Mobutu, described by another CIA officer at the time as "our man, the man we had put our chips on," and a person with whom Devlin had a daily intimate work relationship (and to whom he was dolling out huge sums of taxpayer dollars).
[2] Washington's desire to have Lumumba killed diminished markedly after the international uproar that accompanied his arrest and beat-down.
Posted by David Aronson at 12:27 AM 1 comment:
Readers: I, Who Am about to Blog, Salute You
CongoResources.org passed 100,000 views sometime last night. And my now semi-regular blogging is increasing my readership big time, as you can see from this helpful chart:
I'm averaging some 15,000 to 20,000 views per month.
Scattered Notes on the Economy
Fond memories courtesy Bukavu Online
Zambian and Katangan miners are trying to figure out how to ship their copper via Angola, instead of South Africa and/or Mozambique, says Africa Mining Intelligence. Their sister publication, Africa Energy Intelligence, reports that Mtata Ponyo is investing heavily in hydroelectric power. And Africa Confidential's stepchild, Africa-Asia Confidential, reports that Gecamines is hoping for an infusion of cash from China.
According to the Mining Review, the Congo's mines minister is busy reassuring investors that last week's furor in Lubumbashi is over. "I'm personally reassuring miners that these events are temporary and will be completely put to a halt," mines minister Martin Kabwelulu said by mobile-phone message. "A psychosis will reign for several days, but that will pass as well."
And Bukavu Online is reminding viewers that the main roads out of town still suck--National Road 2, in particular. They provide photographic evidence.
On that Intervention Brigade...
Is the proposed UN intervention brigade the proverbial camel's nose for the establishment of a de facto UN protectorate in eastern Congo?
The Key Facts:
Resolution 2098 (2013) passed last week by the UN Security Council provides for an intervention brigade to neutralize armed groups in the DRC. The brigade will comprise three infantry battalions, one artillery and one special force and reconnaissance company with headquarters in Goma. It is expected to be operational by July. Reuters says South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi are the most likely candidates to supply troops for the intervention unit. Projected troop strength will top out at either 2,500 or 3,069.
The resolution directs the force to act "in a robust, highly mobile and versatile manner ... to prevent the expansion of all armed groups, neutralize these groups, and to disarm them."
The Key Text:
Here is the most relevant section of Resolution 2098 (2013). For the full text, click here:
The Security Council...
"9. Decides to extend the mandate of MONUSCO in the DRC until 31 March 2014, takes note of the recommendations of the Special Report of the Secretary-General on the DRC and in the Great Lakes Region regarding MONUSCO, and decides that MONUSCO shall, for an initial period of one year and within the authorized troop ceiling of 19,815, on an exceptional basis and without creating a precedent or any prejudice to the agreed principles of peacekeeping, include an "Intervention Brigade" consisting inter alia of three infantry battalions, one artillery and one Special force and Reconnaissance company with headquarters in Goma, under direct command of the MONUSCO Force Commander, with the responsibility of neutralizing armed groups
International Reactions:
The resolution was approved unanimously by the Security Council, although several members voiced serious reservations about it.
Rwanda said the brigade should "help the Congolese Government focus on disrupting the activities of armed groups, including the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)."
Guatemala said the brigade raised conceptual, operational and legal considerations that had not been sufficiently explored. It would have preferred the brigade to be a self-standing unit with specific duties distinguishable from those of MONUSCO's other brigades.
The United Kingdom admitted that the UN had entered "new territory" with the authorization of the brigade, but boldly declared: "This is the recipe for success."
Argentina said the idea of "enforcing peace rather than keeping it" required deep reflection, certainly more than the week of negotiations allotted to it. Together with Pakistan and China, it emphasized that the establishment of the brigade in no way constituted a precedent-setting move.
The USA said nothing explicit about the brigade; it did, however, commend the UN for setting Monusco up for success by streamlining the efforts of its military component.
Although not a member of the security council, DRCongo's foreign affairs minister, Raymond Tshibanda, was given the floor after the resolution passed. He said the resolution should lead to the "dawning of a new era ... of human rights, security and stability for all, as well as greater regional cooperation and sustainable development." So I'm guessing he was pleased.
One dissenting note came from the International Federation for Human Rights, which says that the brigade marks "an unprecedented change to the traditional United Nations peacekeeping model and [will] require stronger human rights protection's mechanisms to avoid increased harm to civilians."
Three Key Questions
The establishment of this brigade raises all kinds of questions, some of which I'm sure will become the subject of masters' theses for decades to come. Here are three.
What, Exactly, is the Mission Supposed to Be?
It's not clear exactly what the new troops are expected to do. Actually, let me rephrase that. The language of the mission is perfectly clear: The forces are to pro-actively--kinetically, in military-speak--neutralize and disarm the armed groups operating in eastern Congo. They are, in other words, to do what the Congolese state has notoriously failed to do over the past decade: Re-impose order on the eastern fourth of the country.
The problem is that there are some 15 armed groups operating in eastern Congo, an area larger than the United Kingdom. Is the brigade really supposed to seek out the M23 rebels and either destroy or cause them to surrender? Should it arrest or kill Sultani Makenga? What about the remaining FDLR? Or the local mai mai groups? Should it go after these groups even if they remain hunkered down in their own ethnic enclaves, or should it wait until they attack someone? And what if a FARDC company deserts or goes on a frolic of its own, as one did for example in October 2010?
A plain language reading of the resolution is that the answer to most of those questions is yes. Yes, the brigade should go after the FDLR. Yes, it should disarm the M23 and the various mai mai militia. Yes, in conjunction with FARDC and existing Monusco troops, it should become the de facto hegemon for the region. You see the problem: There's no way a few thousand additional forces can accomplish that ambitious a mandate. So questions arise. Which groups should the brigade target first? What exactly should its rules of engagement be? Who gets to make these decisions, when, and in conjunction with who else? The fact that we don't have answers to these (obvious) questions is why I say that the brigade's mission remains remarkably undefined.[1]
Eastern Congo has been in more or less continuous upheaval since 1994, when some one to two million Hutu refugees arrived in eastern then-Zaire after the Rwandan genocide. A few of us realized from the outset that these camps presented an untenable situation and proposed that we disaggregate the genuine refugees from the mass of genocidaires hiding among them, using western military forces if necessary. A few more of us remember the proposed Canadian-led international force in 1996 that the Clinton administration shot down, in part by flat-out lying about the number of refugees that were left in Congo. And in 2002, there was talk of using western troops to enforce . The French did send troops to Bunia in 2003, for Operation Artemis, which by and large succeeded in putting a cork on that sub-region's inter-ethnic violence. But in November and December 2008, all the Belgian chocolate in the world couldn't convince the major powers--the US in particular--to pony up troops to protect civilians in eastern Congo from yet another outbreak of violence.
It's also been obvious, for a very long time, that the extant UN troops were largely inadequate to the task of protecting the civilian population. I remember in Bunia in 2003 prior to Artemis hearing civilians boo the Monuc convoys patrolling town because of the UN's obvious failures to protect them. In November 2008, refugees and civilians in Kibati in eastern Congo surrounded and stoned a UN convoy in anger at the same. I wrote a brief, canned history of Monuc at that time, bemoaning the UN's reliable history of coming in with too few troops too late in the game to matter. Their surrender of strategic locales, from Bukavu in June 2004 to Goma in 2012, cemented their reputation for fecklessness. So, too, did their failure to respond to occurrences of mass rape and killings in immediate proximity to their own forces, such as happened in the Walikali region in August 2010.
So the question is, Why now? Why, after nearly two decades of refusing to dispatch troops that would engage the bad guys with force of arms, is the international community finally sending this (albeit small and inadequate) interventionist brigade? I don't know the answer, but I'm guessing three things helped: 1) Rwanda's diminishing moral and political influence. Rwanda just doesn't enjoy the moral authority it once did, and policymakers feel less constrained by Rwandan demands to stay out of its backyard. 2) The realization after the 2011 election that the Kinshasa government was here to stay, and that it was going to remain hopelessly inadequate to the task of reestablishing state hegemony over eastern Congo for years to come. 3) A dawning awareness that the existing UN forces were becoming a laughingstock losing credibility, that Monusco's record was undermining the entire idea of UN peacekeeping. All of these ideas/perceptions have been obvious to Congo observers for years, but it takes a while for an awareness of the problems to percolate up the chain of command and lead to serious policy changes. This is speculation, mind you: we need more thorough reporting on the topic than we've gotten to date.
What Is the Broader Significance for Human Rights and the R2P Doctrine?
The resolution takes great pains to emphasize that this is a one-off operation: The brigade, it says, will be established "on an exceptional basis, and without creating a precedent or any prejudice to the agreed principles of peacekeeping." Indeed, not since Bush v. Gore have decision-makers taken such pains to emphasize the irrelevancy of their decision to posterity.
Except that, like Bush v. Gore, it is a big deal. I'm not a sufficiently well-versed student of UN peacekeeping operations to fully contextualize this, but the brigade clearly moves the UN into new territory, from peace keeping, in which it acts as a buffer between antagonists, to peace enforcing, in which it acts, in effect, as a state, neutralizing forces it deems negative or hostile. Among the questions this raises are the following:
The extent to which the UN has attempted such operations in the past, and their record of success or failure;
The legal framework and justification for the operation. Is this, in effect, a Chapter VII + operation? Does it fit within the UN's existing realm of peacekeeping practices--or does the UN need to develop new doctrine to codify it?
Does this brigade represent a step forward in the Responsibility to Protect, the emerging international norm that says that the international community has the right to intervene in countries that fail to protect their own civilian populations from mass atrocities?
While it's a welcome development, the insertion of a fighting force in the Kivus is fraught with peril. If they fail to engage negative forces, they'll be viewed as yet another UN failure. If they engage and suffer serious losses, there's a good chance they'll be yanked. (Think Clinton after Somalia, or Reagan after Lebanon.) Unfortunately, as currently envisioned, they're not nearly substantial enough to accomplish the mission assigned to them without putting themselves at serious risk. So where does that leave us?
The best case scenario, I guess, is that they win a couple of quick battles with minimal loss, build their credibility, and lobby for ever greater support. In that case, the special forces brigade would continue to grow, organically, just as UN troop levels in the country did during the period from 1999 to 2007, when they more or less leveled off at 18,000. [For more background on the growth of Monuc/sco, see below the fold.] But think about what that means: The UN will, in effect, be running a protectorate in eastern Congo. It won't administer the state; it won't be responsible for getting the garbage picked up and the potholes filled, but it will, for all intents and purposes, have assumed the state's most vital function: the establishment of a monopoly of force.
Given the history of the region, worse things could happen.
[1] At least publicly. It could be that the relevant people have thought through all these questions and are, for good and proper military reasons, not sharing them publicly. I kind of doubt this, but it's possible.


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This scrumptions collection will keep the doctor away for weeks! Piled high in an attractive apple basket: Mass. McIntosh Sparkling Cider, Apple Cake Mix, Apple Granola, Pancake Mix, Apple Syrup, Apple Tea, Honey, Apple Cinnamon Coffee and Apple Butter.


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text:
Q: How to loop through I have a html source code as a variable and want to loop through each li and extract the required data . I tried using $(strVar).find("li").each(function(){alert($(this).text()); }); but i could not get the data in between!Could you guys show me how this can done.Thanks

Data to extract from first li:
-1(li class id)
-https://website.com/image1.jpg (li background image url)
-writing reports(div text with class name:class="task_name")
-for items sold(div text with class name:class="training_text")
-1.mp4(input value with class name: class="video")

Data to extract from second li:
-2(li class id)
-https://website.com/image2.jpg(li background image url)
-drawing(div text with class name class="task_name")
-using oil paint(div text with class name:class="training_text")
-2.mp4(input value with class name: class="video")

html code:

<button onclick="MyFunction()">Parse Li</button>

A: The main issue with the code you've shown is that you're using find(), however the li you're trying to retrieve are the root objects in the HTML, so you need to use filter() instead.
From there you can use map() to build an array of object containing the data you need to retrieve from the li:
let bgRe = /^url\((['"]?)(.*)\1\)$/
let data = $(strVar).filter("li").map(function() {
  let $li = $(this);
  return {
    id: this.id,
    bgImageUrl: bgRe.exec($li.find('.ex_thumbnail').css('background-image'))[2],
    reports: $li.find('.task_name').text().trim(),
    items: $li.find('.training_text').text().trim(),
    video: $li.find('.video').val()
  }
}).get();

function MyFunction() {
  var strVar = "";
  strVar += "
";
  strVar += "";
  strVar += "
";
  strVar += "
<\/div>";
  strVar += "            ";
  strVar += "   <\/div>";
  strVar += "
";
  strVar += "
writing reports<\/div>";
  strVar += "
for items sold<\/div>";
  strVar += "   <\/div>";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"image1\" value=\"11.jpg\"\/>";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"tools\" value=\"adobe photshop\"\/>";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"video\" value=\"1.mp4\"\/> ";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"thumbnail\" value=\"14.jpg\"\/>";
  strVar += "";
  strVar += "<\/li>";
  strVar += "";
  strVar += "
";
  strVar += "";
  strVar += "
";
  strVar += "
<\/div>";
  strVar += "            ";
  strVar += "   <\/div>";
  strVar += "
";
  strVar += "
drawing<\/div>";
  strVar += "
using oil paint<\/div>";
  strVar += "   <\/div>";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"image1\" value=\"12.jpg\"\/>";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"tools\" value=\"brush\"\/>";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"video\" value=\"2.mp4\"\/> ";
  strVar += "   <input type=\"hidden\" class=\"thumbnail\" value=\"15.jpg\"\/>";
  strVar += "";
  strVar += "<\/li>";

  let bgRe = /^url\((['"]?)(.*)\1\)$/
  let data = $(strVar).filter("li").map(function() {
    let $li = $(this);
    return {
      id: this.id,
      bgImageUrl: bgRe.exec($li.find('.ex_thumbnail').css('background-image'))[2],
      reports: $li.find('.task_name').text().trim(),
      items: $li.find('.training_text').text().trim(),
      video: $li.find('.video').val()
    }
  }).get();

  console.log(data);
}

MyFunction();

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


A friend of mine, Olivia, got married last year. She used my wedding invitation design but did some crazy custom stuff! She use gold foil-pressing for all of the typography, and she printed everything on watercolor paper with torn edges. It looks so cool!


I've had the Ooma for 2 weeks now and am still in the testing process before porting my number and giving up my other line (DSL and Voice through Earthlink). Ooma is now on a separate and dedicated cable internet modem.
It works fine with local and long distance with a good voice quality.I did the VoiP test and all figures are good except a TCP which is over 100ms. The problem: When placing an international call I have a normal ring (following the announcement about credit and time left) but when the party answers: Total silence, the line becomes dead. I don't hear anything and the party doesn't hear anything either. This happens 9 times out of 10. If and when connected the quality is good.
Has anyone a clue about this ?
Is this a specific country? Specific city? Specific number? Unless it is a general problem with all of your international calling, Ooma may have issues with one of their partners. They may need the specific details around dates and times of your call when you call them.
We got ooma primarily for the international calling feature. We have had ooma for about a week but I have not been able to call anyone internationally yet. We specifically want to call Japan.
International calling has a lot of problems unfortunately. This was discussed in the forums. I think you have much better chance of success with Google Voice than ooma. It also has better rates and quality.
dtalwar wrote: Is this a specific country? Specific city? Specific number? .
I am presently making calls in different countries, at different numbers and different times to see if there is a pattern with the denied calls or it's just that it doesn't work well. I will post the log when it will allow some deduction.
I call UK and India and both seem to work fine ... yes, there have been a couple of disconnected calls but I have experienced that with other providers as well. When I read the above posts, something occurred to me and this may be worth a try-- try disbaling the Ooma Connection tone in the Lounge if you haven't already done so and see if it changes anything.
I have found that the problem occurs mainly with European phone # running on internet (like Ooma). Regular landlines do not seem to be affected by the problem. Any clue?????????
I just got Ooma yesterday, I am trying to place a phone call to China. From my side, it sounds like no one's picking up the phone, from my parents side, no one's answering.
Anyone knows the way to get around it?
Jennifer wrote: I just got Ooma yesterday, I am trying to place a phone call to China. From my side, it sounds like no one's picking up the phone, from my parents side, no one's answering.
Sorry, but I don't know anything about internation calls... However, are local calls working? If they are then we can at least eliminate networking issues.


This was definitely one of the highlights of the trip. I'm also super impressed by how forts are built and the precautions that were taken in terms of fortifying themselves against enemy forces. The tour guide also took us on a little roundabout tour of the internal caverns that soldiers were posted in to hear if enemy troops were trying to dig their way into the fort. Quite the tight fit in those tunnels, I'll certainly say that. The fort is one of the largest, fitting several other more well known forces within it. Plus it was quite picturesque surrounded by all those sailboats!


I had such a long day yesterday @ work and I couldn't wait to get home and relax. Luckily, I had picked up a lovely brand new Hammock @ Collabor88 and I got to wear the latest lovely mesh creation from Hucci.
Thank you for the faves Kaelyn Takuma and LyriqzXue!!
Thank you for the faves PeterKes, Herim, kaelyn, Sophielle, LyriqzXue!!!


text:
That New Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Poster Is Confusing Fans
Jonathan Wright Dec 1, 2019 5:31 pm
With Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker coming out in less than a month, Disney is utilizing every marketing tool at its disposal to hype the fans for the last movie in the Skywalker Saga, and the latest piece of promotional material came in the form of an IMAX poster that featured Luke and Leia.
While some fans love the one-sheet and the contrast depicting the clash of light against darkness, many people are finding it to be confusing or even misleading.
As seen below, the new poster showcases four of our main characters who are set to appear in the movie. It's easy to miss Luke at first glance, but he's actually there weirdly embedded in Kylo Ren's mask. Rey, meanwhile, is standing on a cliff, looking every bit the Jakku scavenger, while her evil counterpart appears as menacing as ever. And as for Leia, her eyes are distant and full of sorrow, perhaps for the inevitable fate of her son. But what's the significance of these four appearing in a poster together – are they all Skywalkers?
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker IMAX Poster Features Luke And Leia
Click to skip
That remains unclear, but over on Twitter, a lot of people keep seeing Obi-Wan instead of Luke here, which actually makes sense since he's sporting a beard that resembles the Jedi Master's appearance from Revenge of the Sith. The strands of hair are also inconspicuous, to say the least. Maybe that was intentional, as previous rumors suggested we may witness the return of old characters like Obi-Wan and Anakin. After all, this is the last movie in the Skywalker Saga.
The legendary Luke Skywalker died at the end of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, but we know that he'll return in the sequel, supposedly as a Force ghost. Carrie Fisher, who tragically passed away in 2016, will also play a part with the unused footage from the two previous films. And perhaps, that's been the implication of the movie's title all along; with these four Skywalkers working together to bring about the demise of the evil Darth Sidious.
In any case, the stage is set for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker to give us the closure that we've been waiting for ever since our favorite characters from a galaxy far far away returned to the silver screens with The Force Awakens. But will it stick the landing? We'll find out on December 20th.
Source: CinemaBlend

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


One great financial goal to set for yourself is to get on track with your retirement savings. Even if you are only in your 20s, this is a great goal to start now.
Also, if you are on the other side of the spectrum, feeling as if it is too late to save for your retirement – think again. Even if you are in your 50s, you can still make a huge impact on your retirement fund, but you have to start now. Here's how to break this huge financial goal into bite sized goals.
Saving for retirement is a great goal, but you need to know where you stand in your retirement savings and where you need to be.
If you are in your twenties, then you have plenty of time on your side, but that time shouldn't be wasted. Figure out how much you should be contributing yearly to your retirement fund, and meet that goal through self and employer contributions.
If you are over fifty, then now is the time to really accelerate your savings any way you can. If you meet the maximum annual contribution limit (which has slightly increased for 2015), you can also take advantage of catch-up contributions.
This step is important for all ages, but is really critical for those in their 40s-60s, who don't have a hefty retirement fund.
Figure out how you can live on a lot less so that extra money can be put towards retirement funds, investments, and savings.
This may mean moving to a smaller home, which is especially practical if you have older children who are ready to fly the coop. If your retirement goals have not been met, then it's time to start evaluating what you can live without now so that you can have a more comfortable and financially set future.
Saving anything into your retirement savings is better than saving nothing. However, it's wise to get up to saving 15% of your income each year.
This may seem like a huge amount if you are just starting out, but you can slowly build up to that amount. The easiest way to get to 15% is to take full advantage of employer contributions.
Even if your employer only matches 2-3%, it's still free money. Set your retirement savings to go up 1-2% each year and learn to live with the small paycheck decrease. Chances are, you will not miss the extra 1% each year.
In fact, it could just mean downgrading your cable package, buying one less outfit per month, or going out to eat less.
For example, if you made $60K a year, the 1% is only $600 a year, or $50 a month. The budget cut is minimal compared to the amazing benefits you're giving yourself later down the road.
It's never too late to start saving for retirement, but you have to be realistic with yourself. If you wasted many years by not saving, then you have to do a lot of catching up to meet your retirement goals. The only way you will be able to make these goals is if you downsize your budget and contribute more to your retirement fund and investments.
Are you ramping up retirement savings this year? How are you doing it? Have you struggled in the past to make saving for retirement a priority?


text:
Home Entertainment Kiara Advani rejects Kabir Singh producer's woman centric film titled Apurva
Kiara Advani rejects Kabir Singh producer's woman centric film titled Apurva
It won't be wrong to say that a lot of credit for what Kiara Advani has achieved in the last two years goes to Kabir Singh. It was producer Murad Khetani who gave Kiara the big film that completely catapulted her into the big league. Not just that, right after Kabir Singh, she was also signed on as the lead for Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2, under the same banner.
Now, she was on the verge of signing a third film with the same team. A source tells us, "It's a woman centric film titled Apurva which traces the journey of the female lead's life in a day. It's an adrenaline pumping thriller which the makers wanted Kiara to shoulder. It's a small budgeted concept oriented project and they took the film to Kiara because she is anyway the in-house favourite."
But we hear, Kiara has rejected the offer. "Kiara and her team heard the story and although they liked it, they felt it was a major risk for her at this point. She is the face of many big projects and her career has taken off to a different level now, so her team advised her against doing a smaller film like Apurva. Apart from that, she also wants to do only one woman centric film in a limited time frame and she's already signed Karram Kurram under Ashutosh Gowariker's production. They didn't want to over burden themselves with another one." While she is also in news for signing Shankar's next opposite Ranveer Singh now, Murad Khetani is still taking his film to other heroines.
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Nick Wilkinson is a self-proclaimed wrestling connoisseur. He has been a wrestling fan since the age of 15 years old when he attempted to fit in with the "cool kids." It only took his love for the Hardy Boyz and Lita to be hooked for the past 20 years. He graduated from Salisbury University in Salisbury, MD with a B.A. in Mass Communications. Besides wrestling, he loves Funko pops, horror movies, all types of music, and pizza a little too much.
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Big Swole is reportedly signed to AEW
Nick Wilkinson - November 8, 2019 0
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Sensational Sherri vs. Rockin' Robin MSG 12/26/87
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Mia Yim vs. Io Shirai in a Ladder Match for WarGames advantage
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Live Coverage: NXT 11/06/19
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Women's World Championship Match booked for AEW's Full Gear
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Alexa Bliss reportedly out of action due to injury *Updated*
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Newest WWE Performance Center recruits announced
It has been made official by WWE that Shotzi Blackheart, Scarlett Bordeaux, and Indi Hartwell have reported for duty at the WWE Performance Center....
Jordynne Grace defeats a legend as she takes down Jazz at Genesis
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Serena Deeb in action on next week's AEW Dark
Sonya Deville comments on her new role and says that 2021 will be the year of SmackDown
Two more names added to the 2021 Royal Rumble match


text:
/* Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
 * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
 * You may obtain a copy of the License at
 *
 *      http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
 *
 * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
 * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
 * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
 * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
 * limitations under the License.
 */
package org.flowable.cmmn.engine.impl.agenda.operation;

import org.flowable.cmmn.api.runtime.PlanItemInstanceState;
import org.flowable.cmmn.engine.impl.behavior.CmmnActivityBehavior;
import org.flowable.cmmn.engine.impl.behavior.CoreCmmnActivityBehavior;
import org.flowable.cmmn.engine.impl.persistence.entity.PlanItemInstanceEntity;
import org.flowable.cmmn.model.PlanItem;
import org.flowable.engine.common.impl.interceptor.CommandContext;

/**
 * @author Joram Barrez
 */
public class ActivatePlanItemInstanceOperation extends AbstractPlanItemInstanceOperation {

    public ActivatePlanItemInstanceOperation(CommandContext commandContext, PlanItemInstanceEntity planItemInstanceEntity) {
        super(commandContext, planItemInstanceEntity);
    }

    @Override
    public void run() {
        if (!PlanItemInstanceState.ACTIVE.equals(planItemInstanceEntity.getState())) {

            // Sentries are not needed to be kept around, as the plan item is being activated
            deleteSentryPartInstances();

            planItemInstanceEntity.setState(PlanItemInstanceState.ACTIVE);
            executeActivityBehavior();
        }
    }

    protected void executeActivityBehavior() {
        CmmnActivityBehavior activityBehavior = (CmmnActivityBehavior) planItemInstanceEntity.getPlanItem().getBehavior();
        if (activityBehavior instanceof CoreCmmnActivityBehavior) {
            ((CoreCmmnActivityBehavior) activityBehavior).execute(commandContext, planItemInstanceEntity);
        } else {
            activityBehavior.execute(planItemInstanceEntity);
        }
    }

    @Override
    public String toString() {
        PlanItem planItem = planItemInstanceEntity.getPlanItem();
        StringBuilder stringBuilder = new StringBuilder();
        stringBuilder.append("[Activate PlanItem] ");
        if (planItem.getName() != null) {
            stringBuilder.append(planItem.getName());
            stringBuilder.append(" (");
            stringBuilder.append(planItem.getId());
            stringBuilder.append(")");
        } else {
            stringBuilder.append(planItem.getId());
        }
        return stringBuilder.toString();
    }

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Insulting Lungu won't get anyone out of poverty – Zambia: News Diggers!
We understand that there are hundreds of thousands of citizens out there who are submerged in misery and are looking for ways of letting out their anger and frustrations. Some have lived in poverty for generations because successive governments have not cared enough about their plight. Others have seen their businesses collapse as a result of poor economic policies and they have no kind words for the government.
There is also another frustrated group of people in the political arena who have failed to form government because they believe that their votes keep getting stolen. They have tried to call for electoral reform, but no one is listening and it's just not working for them. They are now failing to control their emotions because their time is running out.
But above all, the angriest are those who have individually and directly been aggrieved by this Patriotic Front regime. These include very well qualified people who have been retired from government in national or public interest without committing any wrong. The only offence they committed perhaps is belonging to a particular tribe, or questioning an illegal decision by their superiors, or exposing criminality. They have been fired without following proper procedure of retiring a civil servant.
Some of these victims have died of depression; some survivors have lost hope and have resorted to beer drinking and other illicit activities. They can't afford to pay rent because they left government with no terminal benefits on which to earn a living. Even the brave ones who are trying to survive through private sector entrepreneurship have failed to pull through because their business opportunities keep getting trampled upon by State agents who have followed them in their retirement. Most of these victims feel going to court is a sheer waste of time because they know that there is no justice they can get as long as their oppressors remain in power.
These victims are extremely mad at President Lungu for allowing criminal elements to abuse State power in fighting personal battles. They want the Head of State to know how aggrieved they are, but they have no platform on which to engage him. Their letters of complaints can't even go past the gates of State House. The few that get delivered end up in the very hostile hands of the aggressors who then make the situation worse for the victims.
All these devastated people would like to take a bite at the President because they can't handle their frustrations any more. They have tried to endure, but they can't stomach it further. The edge for vengeance is getting the most out of them, but since they have nothing to fight back with, some have started giving government leaders a piece of their mind.
There is a Lusaka resident called Justin Chikonde who has a bone to chew with the Patriotic Front and President Lungu in particular. This elderly man took social media by storm a few days ago because of his insulting prowess. He was heard and seen in a viral video insulting the Head of State and Cabinet Ministers in a manner that cannot be repeated in a narration.
This aggrieved fellow who claims government owes him about K15 million in benefits, had jaw-dropping insults; insults which not even a sworn enemy deserves to hear. What was heart-breaking was that these insults were not coming from a young teenage boy who could hide behind the influence of alcohol. They were coming from a man whom, in our assessment, could be the same age as President Lungu.
We do not agree with that approach. For whatever wrongs he may have committed, insulting President Lungu is a monumentally stupid thing to do. Why do we say this? Well, President Lungu does not deserve anyone's insults, not only because it is a crime to insult him, but because it solves nothing at all. It will not take anyone out of poverty. Insulting the President will only make the situation worse for the victim who may have had a very good reason for being angry at the State. As we speak, police have arrested Mr Chikonde, and anyone who has seen that video wonders how he will get out of that self-inflicted problem.
Don't get us wrong. Zambia is a democratic country, therefore, citizens are free to illustrate where President Lungu is going wrong and telling it in his face that he is a failed leader (like we are repeatedly doing). They can call him a dictator if that is what they think he is – that is not an insult. They can go further and publicly mobilise citizens to vote him out at the next elections. Those with legislative power have an extra privilege of removing him from office before the next election using an impeachment process, as long as the law supports their grounds.
But we are totally against the growing trend of showering insults at the leadership of this country. In countries like the United States, what Mr Chikonde was saying is not a big deal. We see Americans insult President Donald Trump on live television and they call it freedom of speech. But that is not, and must not, be allowed in Zambia. Let us not copy other people's negative cultures and make them our own because it will cause a huge governance problem for generations to come.
Those who are individually aggrieved by this government must carefully manage their frustrations. We would like to encourage those who are seeking solace from the Church to continue getting spiritual counselling. There are also other support civil society organisations that take up such matters of State victimization and these institutions are ready to help. Reach out to them and let them hear your case.
Insulting President Lungu is not a solution at all. It's just like cursing at a stone which you hit into; it may give you some short-lived satisfaction, but it can't stop the bleeding. After all, a stone has no ears.


Without a doubt London foodies are spoilt for choice. Not only do we have a wonderful selection of restaurants on our doorstep, we now have an increasing amount of pop-ups offering lots of different and unusual dining experiences. For March's London food events we've selected a handful of London's pop-up restaurants to reflect the new trend, with two highlights being Rachel McCormack's Catalan pop-up in Liverpool Street and The Royal Horticultural Society Spring Fair in Victoria. In addition to London's pop-ups, there's another special date in March; Mothers Day on the 10th so don't forget the flowers and chocolates. And finally if it's chocolate you're after then stock up for Easter (29/03/13) at the chocolate festival on the Southbank from the 22nd.
The popular Lebanese restaurant Yalla Yalla has opened a pop-up in Shoreditch serving cheap and tasty Beirut street food . It will be open for at least 6 months so plenty of time for a visit.
Join Camra for their 29th beer and cider festival and choose your tipple from 70 real ales, a selection of imported beers and ciders.
There are plenty of nice restaurants to choose from for Mothers Day, check out the GLC's own London restaurant finder for some inspiration.
If you fancy your chances at becoming a London eating legend then get down to Boxpark in Shoreditch to see if you can eat 3 pies in 5 minutes, just don't forget the Rennie.
If you're partial to Spanish cooking, then join Rachel McCormack for a special Catalan Calçotades pop-up at the Moo Grill near Liverpool Street.
If you're feeling health conscious, the 14th National Salt Awareness Week starts on the 11th March, but will you dare to ask for less salt when you're out dining?
A Very London A-Fare is a pop-up night including a 4 course meal and cabaret, in a gallery in Hackney and apparently dressing up is encouraged.
If you've got a sweet tooth, then join the collection of chocolate and pastry chefs on the Southbank for the London Chocolate Festival.
Believe it or not, Spring is just around the corner and The Royal Horticultural Society are offering an evening of swing dancing, cider, and cocktails in conjunction with the Midnight Apothecary and the Gin Garden.


This research guide supports the Money Matters project at Pensacola State College. Others interested in better money management will also find useful information here.
The Edward M. Chadbourne Library at Pensacola State College houses over 80,000 books, 46 computers, study rooms and a coffee shop.
Click image to go to Pensacola State's Cash Course website.
Place quotes around phrases: "fake news"
Borrower ID: Use the 14-digit barcode at the bottom of your Pensacola State College ID card.
PIN: Last 4 digits of your Social Security number.


Above a large cigar factory.
Sometimes in life we don't need words.
I love Cuba. I was in 1989 on sailboat. It was absolute fantastic.
I see you love photos of beautiful beaches too! Very nice!
you have so many beautiful and amazing pictures:) you are so lucky to be able to travel to all these amazing places!
This is very much what the beaches in Baja Sur, Mexico look like. Lovely.


At Drupa, the largest printing equipment exhibition in the world, DuPont Packaging Graphics originally featured it's leading Flexo Plate Technologies. DuPont Packaging Graphics is one of the world's leading suppliers of flexographic printing systems in digital and conventional formats.
Following it's own core principle of proactively meeting their customers' needs, Quint took its next major, innovative step by introducing a Dupont Cyrel Photopolymer Plate maker with a fully digital workflow to their production line. Moving ahead continually and deliberately to insure the ongoing survival of the company and the best interests of their clients, Quint continues to stay at the forefront of Flexographic Plate technologies.
– Tracy Lunt, global technology manager, DuPont Packaging Graphics.


Most years the organisers of the Vuelta a España surprise us with some brutally tough new climb, but for 2017 they look to have outdone themselves with the Alto de los Machucos on stage 17.
Located deep in the mountainous countryside of Cantabria in the north of the country, this is nine kilometre climb could cause just as much damage as the better-known Sierra Nevada and Alto de l'Angliru which are also included in this year's route.
The reason is that hidden within its nine per cent average gradient are some brutally steep slopes that ramp up to between 28 and 31 per cent (depending on your protractor).
The climb is tackled on stage 17 of the race, a day after Chris Froome (Team Sky) further stamped his authority on the race on stage 16's 40.2km individual time trial, increasing his lead to nearly two minutes.
Starting inland at Villadiego, the riders will tackle two climbs – the second-category Portillo de Lunada and the first-category Puerto de Alisas – before starting the Alto de los Machucos from the town of Arredondo with roughly 13km remaining.
The first few kilometres are steady with the odd downhill section, before the climb starts in earnest with a sudden 17 per cent ramp with seven kilometres to the finish.
That heralds the start of the toughest part of the climb, with the gradient rarely dropping below 20 per cent for the next two kilometres, and the steepest ramps of up to 31 per cent also in this section.
To make things worse, the steepest parts of the climbs are surfaced with concretes and include little ruts every foot or so.
That's great if you're in a vehicle struggling for grip the wet, but not so nice if you're a bike rider struggling to hold on to any semblance of forward momentum.
Once that section is over, the riders will enjoy a slight respite at around six per cent for a kilometre, before a three-kilometre section that averages 12 per cent, but has a very uneven gradient to include a couple more ramps of more than 20 per cent.
Finally, like on the Angliru, the riders can enjoy a short donwnhill section towards the finish, before a flat-ish run to the line at the Monumento Vaca Pasiega.
A few might hope that this brutally steep climb could put Froome out of his comfort zone, but given his dominance in the race so far, it's hard to see anyone being able to challenge his grip on the red jersey.


As a not-for-profit group we depend on donations and sponsorships. This is what enables us to document, duplicate and bring into the public domain important parts of Canadian history.
Our project entitled the Souterraine Impressions, is currently under way. It involves documenting, researching and recreating images and carvings made in 1917 by Canadian soldiers sheltered in an underground cave in France prior to the Battle for Vimy Ridge. These First World War soldiers etched into the chalk walls to pass the time, but also to leave behind something by which to be remembered – something which has never before been fully documented.
CANADIGM's goal is to recreate these carvings and to find out more about the men who did them. This work will culminate in a cross-country travelling exhibition beginning in 2015 and leading up to the Battle for Vimy Ridge centenary in 2017.
Needless to say, costly and specialized equipment is required for this kind of work, as well as travel expenses, exhibit costs and logistical considerations. Your donation or sponsorship assistance will have a real and direct impact on preserving these historic and very personal images for present and future generations of Canadians.
We'd be delighted to discuss our various sponsorship levels and explain how and where your organization will be recognized for its support.
Please help us keep history alive.


there's a number of really good books on data visualization.
I've got a couple of them, and I've used them in putting together this course.
I'd like to talk about some of them right now.
on visualization on the presentation of visual information.
being able to understand the data based on that image.
opposed to the computer processing of information.
To make it more readily available for visualization.
the graphic design aspects of data visualization.
Chris Johnson at the University of Utah.
based on scientific instruments or simulations.
We're going to be talking about data visualization.
visualization by Stuart Card, Jock Mackinlay and Ben Schneiderman.
the chapters are research papers.
The version I have came out in 2000, so it's a little bit older.
to sort of get those fundamentals into this course.
Design by Colin Ware at the University of New Hampshire.
And, this is a book on perceptual principles applied to data visualization.
So, it tells you how to lay out your data, so it can be perceived more readily.
Focusing on user interface and user interaction issues.
& Design, by Tamara Munzner at University of British Columbia.
includes task analysis and other user interface details, that's quite good.
a really good volume of sort of the state of the art in data visualization.