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Mr Macron's concentric circles
By johnredwood | Published: September 1, 2018
Mr Macron was misinterpreted by some this week who strain to discern an agreement between the EU and the UK in what he said. When Mr Macron stated he wanted reform of the EU he went back to the old idea of accelerated union and integration for an inner group. He then wants the UK to fit into an outer circle, where doubtless he thinks we should be rule takers. We would be grouped alongside eastern European countries who may want fuller integration but are not welcomed or thought to be ready by the elite countries to join the core of the Euro.
Mr Macron thinks France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, five of the original six founders of the EU, and maybe Spain, are ready to move to a single budget, a single Finance Minister and a joint foreign and security policy. Italy would probably be told if they want to be part of this inner core they have to forget all their wishes to change the budget strategy and to bin their request to toughen migration and border controls. There would be no room for dissenters in the core. The UK will of course be "offered" a security and defence partnership, because the UK provides more already to European defence than our GDP share would imply. The EU would like access to our two carrier groups and to the squadrons of F 35 fighter bombers, as well as to our Intelligence services. The EU has in mind some kind of Association Agreement with the UK, which is a watered down version of the EU Treaty without the voting rights and place at the table to complain in person about bad laws and bad policies.
Mr Macron's vision is backward looking and out of time. Mrs Merkel is finding it very difficult to hold her coalition together, and will be in no position to offer a joint budget and common Finance Minister given the antipathy of German electors to the idea of Germany paying more and sponsoring a so called transfer union. As transfer unions are central to most countries with their own currencies this remains a major stumbling block for the Euro. Mrs Merkel's traditional coalition partners, the CSU, face a difficult election in Bavaria in October, where they could lose control of their Lander Parliament thanks to AFD candidates. This means Mrs Merkel has to pose as tough on matters European and migratory for the next two months.
Mr Macron will also alienate many of the keen members of the EU that are excluded from his inner core. The countries to the south – or their governments – believe in the Euro scheme and were expecting a bit more financial and budget leeway. Instead Mr Macron seems to envisage more budget flex only for the chosen few that have passed the austerity test and joined the core. He will also continue to annoy the Hungarians and Poles who are the new naughty boys of the bloc, wanting the whole institution to adopt anti migrant policies.
It is going to prove a problematic few months for the EU, with Macron and Merkel in disagreement and with Italy pressing hard for changes to both migration and budget policies. Mrs Merkel usually gives in to pressure, so expect German policy to move to a more anti migrant stance.
Indeed. It is certainly good that we voted to leave then. Not that is looks like we will leave until May and Hammond are evicted or resign.
Meanwhile please can we use the large delay on Crossrail completion (which they seem to have only just discovered) as an excellent reason (not that any more or needed) to cancel the totally idiotic, expensive and hugely damaging HS2 project?
The Crossrail project started planning in 1974 so 44 years so far and not a penny of value out of it as yet.
Indeed it is incredible that Conservative MPs have allowed May and Hammond to continue with this ridiculous £100bn vanity project – for which no-one has yet come up a coherent economic justification. Apart from anything else there will be votes in a cancellation.
Am I right in thinking that HS2 is an EU mandated project?
I recall reading that somewhere a few years ago, part of a plan to have all of Europe have a High Speed rail system.
Not one of my posts. See below.
Seem to be two posters here with exactly the same name
It depends on how you want to look at it. There is a EU-supported (not mandated) Trans-Europen Transport Network, which already includes most of the existing (or soon to come) continental European train lines. It includes Alfa Pendular (P), Altaria, Alvia, AVE, Euromed (E), Eurostar (B, F, GB), ICE (B, CH, D, DK, F, NL), Le Frecce (I), RailJet (A, CH, D, H), Renfe (E, F), SJ (DK, S), SuperCity (CZ), TGV (B, CH, D, E, F, I, L), Thalys (B, D, F, NL). HS2 is/was supposed at one stage to become part of this network.
So in that respect, one could think that the UK is a score of years behind. But after 29/03/2019 that will not matter anymore, will it?
Dennis Zoff
Correct for once!
Ironic. Brexit is also a vanity project for which no-one has yet come up with a coherent economic justification. But it will cost much more than £100bn.
Hs2, however, is a much needed addition to our infrastructure which governments of all colours have allowed to crumble.
Where is HS3, HS4, HS5, Crossrail 2, the massive A road upgrade project to remove pinch points and junctions, new motorways, bridges and tunnels? Where are they all?
Labour the Lib Dems stifled investment in transport projects from1997 to 2015.
Indeed. We've had 40 odd years EU membership and seen our infrastructure go to rat shit.
Indeed especially if the money is used for something sensible like large tax cuts combined with other large cuts in the endless government waste and incompetence.
"Tax avoiders blocked from honours list" I read. What on earth is wrong with legally avoiding tax? A pensions scheme or an ISA, or duty free. It is surely a moral duty to reduce you tax bill. Often in business you can survive only if you do.
It will after all be spent far more wisely and efficiently (in general) than it would be if handed over to the government. Each pound given to the government might give at best 20p of value after the cost of collection, the endless waste and the countless idiotic and inefficient ways it is spent. Much is spent on blatant propaganda adverts, attempting to buy votes and inconveniencing the productive at every turn. A huge amount on the appalling NHS.
A ban on failed politicians such at Major, Clegg, May, Cameron, Cable, Hunt Osborne, Hammond, Adonis, Blair, Mandelson, Milliband (both), Heath …. and most time serving state bureaucrats and the likes would be far, far more sensible. Especially ones like Osborne and Cameron who make Cast Iron. low tax and IHT tax promises then rat on them.
It is indeed sinister to think these sub standard civil servants in the Cabinet Office who are fouling up Brexit are also snooping via HMRC on people's private legal tax affairs. "Poor tax behaviour" sounds like the sort of phrase Mrs May would have put in her mouth. Next they will want to control our communications – Oh but they already are aren't they?
PS Are they using the Prevention of Terrorism Act to enable them to do this snooping?
Dominic Johnson
Posted September 1, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink
Much of the west coast mainline is at capacity
There are simply no ( or few ) iterative gains left to be had
We simply need more track if we want more capacity
That's not to say HS2 is the right solution in the right place, but we lay more track, we cut intercity or cut intracity
I am more upset by the continuation of the Hinkley Point Nuclear Project. This has new and unproven technology. It was reviewed and yet the government lost nerve and allowed it to continue.
" We " did not vote to leave, you did ,there is no "we" that includes me and people like me, as well as you and people like you. 'We' is gone and it is not coming back, that is part of the legacy of Brexit and anyone who thinks it will fade away is not watching the growing sense of identity around remain centrist voters.
Many people look at France with envy and Mr Redwood will be well aware gathering impetus behind a new centre Party . That is why he has to continue with his anti EU propoganda and especially anti Macron
The choice cannmot be between Nationlist fanatics and comedy Communists forever , there must be a voice for business , low tax, personal freedom, modern values and rational government
" We" want a decent government for ordinary moderate voters , you want to prattle on about your absurd hobby
We means we as a country.
The majority in a vote means, we voted.
Not you as in you the individual.
We all vote in elections.
We get a government elected by us.
It is your government as it is mine.
You don't have to like it nor do you have to agree but that is the reality.
We does not mean me either. I agree with Newmania. I reject entirely your petty nationalistic Brexit. People like us have decades to undo it – and we will.
As is your democratic right Andy.
But you are stating the obvious.
YOU took part in the referendum.
YOU pledged to abide by the result of it.
Peter Wood
Interesting analysis, thank you. But what of Ireland? Are they to be in the outer tier, I don't think the Taoiseach 'll be happy to be relegated from top table.
Macron has plenty of bad ideas to be considered, but its only Germany that decides because they are the ones paying most of the bill, more so after we, hopefully, leave…
The French keep trotting out this grand projet of a united Europe in which they make the rules, the Germans sign the cheques and the Dutch do the work. Not surprisingly, few outside France are impressed.
The shadows of Napoleon and Charlemagne hang long over a certain sort of Frenchman. It seems they have one in the driving seat at present.
I was thinking it is a bit like Animal Farm – "All countries are equal except some are more equal than others".
And that didn't end well for those in charge…as we all know
Eeyore – your post reminds me of the much-admired Gary Sheffield's words concerning Germany's aims before 1914: "Belgium would become a 'vassal state', and French power would be crushed, although it would be allowed to exist as a third-class power that posed on threat to Germany. "Mitteleuropa", a 'central European customs union' would… "stabilize ~~Germany's economic dominance over Central Europe"…. (quoting David Stevenson)
Sounds familiar, doesn't it?
"NO threat" !
Ireland will not be of any importance once the EU no longer needs to use its border with N.I. to gain an advantage over the UK in the withdrawal negotiations.
If Ireland wants to be at the "top table" they will need to give up their low rates of corporation tax.
And presumably its defence budget of ONLY 0.3% of GDP. Wonder if Trump will mention that on his visit. ROI not even a member of NATO, so it just sits back and relies on others to defend it's democracy.
And what of the Republic of Ireland ? What about its very keen Corporate Tax rates ? The border ?
What President Macron is doing is throwing down the EU integration gauntlet in the hope that it will put France back in the EU driving seat. He sees Merkel as weak and is playing that old French trick of trying to play the UK with Germany to further the French cause. That is why out of all the Continental countries I trust and like the French the least. When one looks at history the French when threatened or in need of an ally against Germany always comes to us. And the bastards always sell us out or we end up worse off than before.
President Macron needs to be told that UK needs no such deal. France and the EU are becoming less important and the UK, as we have always done to our and the world's benefit, shall be looking to new and further horizons. We are not interested.
This idea of "concentric circles" is one which the Tory party itself has promoted in the past, JR, as a means to persuade its supporters and the general public that we should remain in the EU, and I would have no difficulty believing that Theresa May would be happy for us to continue to move in an outer orbit around Brussels in the hope that eventually centripetal forces would pull us back down to the centre where she thinks we belong. After all that is where she and future British Prime Ministers might expect to be welcomed with hugs and kisses from the other leaders and to be presented with customised football shirts and other loving gifts, and one can see from her body language that she likes that and does not like being treated as an outsider. And that is one fundamental reason why we should not allow her to keep us within the power of Brussels; we need to move well away if we are to be sure of an independent future, notwithstanding the chronic europhilia which has infected all our main political parties.
Sorry, that was not intended as a reply to you, Mark B. Incidentally I've given up looking for your reply that you mentioned a few days ago, and I think you'll need to repeat it when an opportunity arises.
OK Denis, thanks.
Your anti-French is a surprisingly common attitude among Brexiteers – particularly kippers.
It really is beyond pathetic.
And how do you know that? Have you done any research ? No of course not its just your normal made up waffle all of it predicated on the basis that YOU think YOU know what 17.4 million people think.
This kind of brainwashed thinking is the root cause of you losing.
Look to Germany for real extremists on the march.
Your EU is dead.
No, Andy. Do try to understand. We are against what SOME French people are illegally doing. We are not "anti French".
This is as simplistic as suggesting YOU are "anti Brexiteer" no matter who they are or how honourable they may be. And, of course, you're not that prejudiced, are you?
But mostly you're just anti-French. At least have the guts to admit it!
As for me, I am proudly both anti-Brexit and anti-Brexiteer. Most of my friends and family backed Remain anyway so it hasn't been too tricky. But the few Brexiteers I knew prior to June 2016 have now mostly been expunged from my contacts. With the exception of my mum, I would now never knowingly go out for drinks or to dinner with a Brexit voter.
Indeed, last weekend was quite anxious as we were staying at the house of some old friends and I wasn't sure if maybe he'd backed Brexit or not. I avoided mentioning politics but my wife bundled straight in with the awfulness of Brexit, bemoaning the huge damage it has done to our country and our children. To my relief both our hosts heartily concurred – they are appalled by it all. And their MP is one of the most vocal Tory Brexiteers. They will never vote for him again. The tide has already turned against you.
It's always the same. Remainers often cut out people who have different political opinions to them. I didn't meant to talk about it brother-in-law suddenly launched into me with "You didn't vote Brexit did you ?" then "WHY ???"
I said "Who are you MEPs ?"
"Well I don't know !"
"What EU parties do they belong to ? Oh. If you don't know who your MEPs are then you don't know which parties they stand for. So you didn't know what you were voting for."
"It's going to cost British jobs."
"But you're the chief engineer of ****** and have spent the past fifteen years outsourcing and managing UK factories to the EU and afar – whilst in the EU."
We still get along fine, thankfully.
Your family circle of anti-Brexit childishness is rather interesting…I am guessing it does not stop there?
mancunius
Questioning Macron's assumption he can strong-arm Merkel is being 'anti-French'??
In that case, I think you'll find the entire population of France is equally 'anti-French' – as they too find his intention unrealistic.
I disagree – when they need an ally against Germany the French have tended to turn first to Russia(almost every French government since 1871 has sought a good relationship with Russia,including currently M Macron,albeit the opponent now is the USA rather Germany).They have historically also sought to bolster Poland for similar reasons,albeit this has always proved to be a lost cause!Plus the French are acutely aware that if Russia becomes more Asia-focussed,it reduces Europe to a "jagged promentory of Asia" as the historian, Will Durant, once it.As the French government aligned foreign policy think-tank,ResPublica,puts it"The European interest is not to re-inforce the link between Russia and Asia".
I was intrigued by the visit of Foreign Minister Lavrov and Head of Armed Services,Valery Gerasimov,to both Macron and Merkel(separately) a few weeks ago.General Gerasimov hardly ever leaves the territory of Russia,its allies or vassals and is under sanction,which must have been suspended for this visit.And with the US known to have been bugging European leaders,a telecon was out of the question if sensitive issues were discussed as I assume they were.
My personal take on the forthcoming massive military exercises in the Russian Far East(in which both China and Mongolia are participating and to which Nato has been invited to send an observer)is that it is not just a display of military might but a message that Russia is capable of defending Europe (and,in conjunction with China,the whole of Eurasia) and that the US presence is unneccessary and unwanted.
Is NATO heading for the dustbin of history?
I believe that the French still have some sort of complex vis-a-vis the English because of their poor performance in WWII.
JoolsB
Absolutely spot on Mark B.
One of the most remarkable aspects of our generally fraught public debate over the EU has been the absolute unwillingness of Remain to accept the clear direction of travel of the EU. Macron's proposal is of course highly divisive within the EU but it's only a variant on the Five Presidents report and numerous similar pronouncements over the years. There were good and bad arguments on both sides in the referendum, but it would be good if those who argue for reversal of brexit would at least be honest about what EU membership is likely to mean.
I am still waiting for Remain to make the case for the EU. All we ever hear are threats.
Institutional development in the EU has always had a snail pace and concentric circles (associative members) were already proposed in the not materialised 'Von Brentano' constitution of 1952. In the 1957 (political!) Treaty of Rome, no 'European Council' (heads of government) was foreseen but over time it has now emerged as the most powerful EU institution. The same way it has gone and will go with all kinds of "enhanced cooperation", the latest of which is the European Public Prosecutor. One day there may be a kind of finance minister for the eurozone or a more full fledged minister of foreign affairs (now EEAS), but it is better to count in decades than years.
The most disappointing part of the EU for me is how the leaders of the 28 globally recognised sovereign states that form it, have let it get out of hand. It is a repeat of how the 50 states of the USA, have let their federal government get similarly, out of hand.
The EU Four Freedoms should be reduced to two. Free movement of Goods and Services (increasingly difficult to separate), to a strict common standards, is a very good idea. The free movement of Capital and Persons is not.
For me the biggest mistake the EU 28 has made, is the introduction of a common currency. A common currency for 28 culturally diverse and historically sovereign nations, was the very last thing they needed. The ASEAN group of nations deliberately avoided going down a common currency path.
The EU does not need five Presidents; it needs one Secretary General. It does not need its own Parliament; it has 28 Sovereign Parliaments that can learn to handle the job.
It does not need a common currency issuing Treasury. Hence, it does not need a common currency (Euro) central bank. The 28 sovereign Treasuries and their own central banks, can go back to issuing and managing their own currencies and take their chances in the global currency markets.
You make it sound as if all the decision made from the EU are in some way an accident. They are not. A common currency and full integration was planned as long ago as Ted Heath.
What was the problem is as part of French agreement to allow the two Germany's to unite, was for Germany to adopt the Euro. Khol agreed with Mitterand but got a concession that Germany would never be the lender of last resort. It is there you must look to see the flaw in the Euro. The UK leaving will not solve it.
I find myself agreeing with all you say acorn.
The other big mistake you have not mentioned was a far too rapid expansion of new member states, many who were not economically aligned to the original members.
@acorn: I hope that I understand you correctly. What you describe as a better way sounds like a completely intergovernmental organisation with no supranational component (a bit like EFTA, of which the UK was one of the founding members). But for usm the supranational component has been there from the start (already before 1957 in the ECSC), because the two resources for WAR (steel and coal/energy) were not to be trusted to national governments and were brought under a "supranational" authority (see "Europe Declaration" in wikipedia). An extra parliament then also makes sense, to keep this authority to account. Sovereignty is maintained in that the voluntary partial "pooling of sovereignty" can be withdrawn by these sovereign nations. E.g. Greenland left in 1985, the UK invoked article 50, a proof of its sovereignty. "President" over here is just a chairman function, not to be confused with say a Turkish president.
GilesB
Strict common standards are a recipe for risky uniformity. Nature shows that diversity is good: robust against changes, competition encourages innovation, local tailoring more effectively meets local needs.
The economies of scale from mass manufacturing existed for Henry Ford's assembly line: modern manufacturers have absolutely no problem meeting local standards for local markets
Giles B, I should have said strict "technical" standards to prevent confusing the consumers and letting them get ripped off by transnational corporations, who want governments to allow the same plug on all there electrical products; the consumer has to buy an adaptor to make it work. If governments give way to that, then your Sovereign state becomes a Corporate state.
BTW. Look out for the next government disaster area. The Office for Low Emission Vehicles; part of the Department for Transport and Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy. Particularly if you are expecting to plug your new electric vehicle, into the street lamp outside your house.
margaret howard
"For me the biggest mistake the EU 28 has made, is the introduction of a common currency"
So how do you explain the success of the euro which has not only risen spectacularly against the pound but also replaced it as the world reserve currency after the US$ with 90% of world total (the £ accounts for under 3.0%)
Germany France and Holland are in charge of the Euro.
It has been a painful process for Cyprus Spain Italy Greece Portugal and others stuck with the wrong exchange rate.
The 2008 banking collapse affected most countries. Luckily all those countries are now on the road to recovery, even Greece which had been a basket case prior to its EU membership. That's why they cheated to get in.
This is all in the Spinelli-Bertelsmann Document, "A Fundamental Law of the European Union ".
We need to avoid being an Associate Member and we need to leave the EU and the Single Market (EU/EEA).
We do need to retain membership of the EEA though.
Oxiana321
Yes, scary stuff ! I note that this document argues for the unelected Commission's role of agreeing and drafting laws to continue after the formation of the 'federal union' (presumably behind closed doors, as usual).
There is no question that the ultimate goal has been to form a federal state of Europe and Remainers in Parliament and in the Civil Service are certainly intelligent enough to recognise this. Remaining in the EU, whether in an inner or an outer circle must inevitably entail Britain relinquishing any remaining vestiges of independence. Indeed, the whole question of self government and our Parliament retaining genuine control is an aspect that the Remain campaign has deliberately ignored, always framing the debate using bogus economic arguments. It is this dishonesty, taking us all for fools, that makes the British public so angry.
Sounds like traditional french rhetoric to me.
So, Macron has this idea that the EU should be run in a grand pseudo-napoleonic style, which is certain to result in conflict. But that's ok because the British will do the fighting for them.
Since the demise of the USSR, the EU has been hell bent on getting it's borders to within an inch of Russia's.
Are really stupid enough to commit ourselves to military conflict with Russia at the orders of france and the EU, when they provoke a nuclear armed state a step too far?
The franco german alliance will go too far with Russia and cause a serious conflict, but perhaps they see our islands as ultimately expendable ahead of suing for peace.
No, I say, the next time the french provoke a war in Europe we should keep well out of it.
Good diary item Mr Redwood, which confirms that we need to be out of the EU, totally.
Any military conflict with Russia will be at the instigation of the USA.I don't see France getting involved in a conflict with Russia either on it's own account or on behalf on anybody else-NATO,USA or the EU in,say,Ukraine.The interest in Ukraine is more German and Polish (as it always has been) than French.
Nig l
Fortunately we are now getting the last few desultory bleats about staying in as a reason to reform it, we have heard that b.s too many times!
We are now getting the sign up to any deal and then work on improving it, that Quisling Goves position. What nonsense. The reality is that it will go the way of 'improve from within' nothing will happen.
Note to spin doctors. The use of words like ambitious and pragmatic, especially when so obviously coordinated, might look and sound good in a Whitehall brain storming session. In the real world they translate as – Sell Out.
Is it not a rather limited understanding of Macron's speech in May in Aachen?
Re-reading the ~4000 words pronounced by E.Macron in Aix-la-Chapelle on 10 May 2018 when he was awarded the Charlemagne Prize (www.voltairenet.org/article201119.html) I found only about 200 words that could be said to be related to the "concentric circles", and none of them was clearly defining which countries will/should/must be part of this first tier. Strange, isn't it?
Charlemagne didn't say much about consolidating the western Empire either.
But he did consolidate the core fragments of the western empire-France,Germany,Netherlands,Northern Italy -even if they soon fractured again-with others,the western Slavs for example ,on the outer limits categorised as vassals/tributaries of his empire.
Over the past twenty four hours some parts of the UK media have openly admitted that the EU has been determining our summer time arrangements, as well as mentioning that the latest unnecessary interference with our domestic lighting preferences springs from an EU directive. Perhaps there is a dawning realisation that with our imminent departure from the EU, at least in theory and on paper, there is no longer the same need to conceal these unpleasant things from the public that was identified in FCO 30/1048 in 1971:
http://nebula.wsimg.com/ee64586c9adeb89f1e7dbe83ad0e406d?AccessKeyId=D1353796524218438F43&disposition=0&alloworigin=1
"After entry there would be a major responsibility on HMG and on all political parties not to exacerbate public concern by attributing unpopular measures or unfavourable economic developments to the remote and unmanageable workings of the Community. This counsel of perfection may be the more difficult to achieve because these same unpopular measures may sometimes be made more acceptable if they are put in a Community context, and this technique may offer a way to avoid the more sterile forms of inter-governmental bargaining. But the difference between on the one hand explaining policy in terms of general and Community-wide interest and, on the other, blaming membership for national problems is real and important."
Bob Dixon
Your analysis makes clear that we must make no deals until after 29th of March 2019. Any major problems after this date can be sorted by us operating as a free country
Ministers and their Civil Servants must spend their time getting the Country ready for a no deal Brexit.
Did the distinguished senior Labour MP Frank Field resign the Labour whip, accusing the current Labour leadership of being racist anti-semites? I ask only because I saw this in the papers but have heard almost nothing about it on the BBC. Imagine if a Conservative MP resigned accusing the Conservative leadership of being racist! We'd never hear the end of it.
The far left now in control of Labour is the most malignant force in mainstream British politics since etc ed.
Curiously curious: over the last week, BBC web site had (*)
24/08: Jewish MP feels unwelcome after Corbyn's comments
27/08: Corbyn defends British Zionist comments
28/08: Ex-chief rabbi condemns Corbyn's comments
30/08: A guide to Labour anti-semitism claims
01/09: McDonnell worried about Labout split.
(*) and presence on the website corresponds to a topics addressed during the day.
I am afraid I think your analysis is far too negative and not necessarily correct as yes there are strains but there has always been strains in the EU collaboration.
In addition a number of the eastern European countries also belong to what you call the so-called core like Slovenia and Czech Republic.
o as the Brexit negotiations go into a more positive phase I am much more positive
HCR – I unfortunate don't have your confidence 🙁
It's not over till the over weight lady sings, but at the moment it's from the wrong song book…
Sir Joe Soap
On all of this we need more than at any time in the past 60 years a strong PM. Sadly we don't have this at the moment, and the EU want to keep it that way.
We should in hindsight have left immediately after the wall came down in '89.
Well he is correct in the need for reform in the EU. My thought is that it should revert to making the FTA work. At present there is much that needs tidying up and much protectionism that needs removing.
I also believe that the Euro is too hard a discipline for many countries that would be better using their original currencies until they can hold their own with Germany.
I see no place in the EU for the UK, politically or currency wise. EU political structures arrived too early in it's development and were allowed to grow in an anti democratic fashion. It is top down and totally alien to the UK , but historically not so much so to many European countries.
Germany and the German people must find themselves in a very difficult position. Economically the strongest in the EU, thanks to their own endeavours and the Euro. Reluctant to sacrifice this position to become the California of even a reduced EU. Reluctant to get involved and open to accusations of a desire for German dominance, remembering their past. There are many culture gaps around the EU that cannot be bridged with a common set of financial rules. Members need a truly democratic relationship that does not swamp them in a way that destroys their culture. I would advocate a moratorium on any further political development. Lengthy debates throughout Europe until a consensus emerges as to how the people , not prominent politicians, wish Europe to develop in future.
As an independent nation, we shall be free to decide & choose what is best for us. We shall set our own rules for cooperation & engagement.
What the EU does is a choice solely for them. They can fit in with us if we both agree. Our choice of fitting in with them depends on whether they are headed anywhere sensible. Not even they know that. Their future without our continuing over-contribution is more fragile,
£ 39 billion is not going to make a big difference in any calculations
hans christian ivers:
Our freedom has higher values than money can reach, but as you raise it, £39 billion is merely the start.
Oh well we will keep the 39 billion here in the UK
We have loads of things we can spend it on.
What an embarrassment Macron's becoming. Elected to reform the basket-case that is the entire French economy he's 'bottled' this particular challenge for fear of stoking the unions and now concerns himself with EU and international matters like some strutting, preening Statesman
He should simply admit that he's a spineless, unprincipled charlatan and concern himself with domestic matters
On a side note. Don't allow May to open up our borders to unlimited African immigration. We need strict controls and this grotesque politician who leads our party is using race and ethnicity as a political tool in the same manner used by New Labour in 1997 to tweak immigration rules to import electoral capital
You rightly highlight the obvious fragility of the EU, in short it cannot survive in its present grouping, if it all. The history of continental Europe is endless conflict, changing allies and rivalry and it has been very naive of those who have forced the pace of EU enlargement and integration. Macron is following that error.
The Germans are dangerously exposed to Russian gas supply dependency, which Mrs Merkel is a prime mover.
Ukraine remains a powder keg, possibly of the EU's making.
Without the UK and USA support the EU defence is effectively non existent.
Eire logically should leave with the UK but history is embedded in the poor relationship with England despite the UK being a good friend since partition and major trading partner.
Gibraltar is insoluble even with UK in the EU.
As the scallop dispute shows, rules and agreements with the French are subject to the Gallic shrug.
Italy and Greece have been sold down the river by Brussels and their membership of the Euro and Schengen.
". The history of continental Europe is endless conflict"
Of the 278 wars involving European states during this period the principal participants were:
Thats in the past.
It is the future that is important.
Some countries you list hardly existed in 1480.
There are all sorts of stories now about who said what:-
'Barnier does a U turn'.
Followed by 'Barnier believes No Deal likely'.
It's basically click bait.
We are seeing a power grab by Mr. Macron whilst Germany is weakened by Mrs. Merkel's disastrous and illegal attempt to bolster the German workforce by inviting into the country millions of illegal economic migrants who are unable to integrate with the indigenous European tolerant, rules based, enlightened and democratic cultures.
The UK has voted to leave the EU and unless we see a coup d'etat in Parliament by corporate influenced MPs led by a recipient of the French Legion d'honneur we will thankfully not be involved.
As part of the separation it will be important to not let our military be run by the EU and not be duped into joining the Galileo project over which we will have no control.
Nor to let the EU run our foreign policy. I read that the EU has just given Iran 18m Euros, a large portion of which will of course be our money.
"Mrs. Merkel's disastrous and illegal attempt to bolster the German workforce by inviting into the country millions of illegal economic migrants.."
What a distortion of the facts. Merkel was the only world leader with enough compassion to alleviate the tragedy of refugees caused by the illegal wars and invasions by US/UK starting with Iraq which has destabilised the whole region. Millions had already fled before she offered some hope to the survivors.
Allowin into Germany one million people in one year is the worst decision by a Western leader in decades.
The withdrawal agreement is in effect the association agreement.
Where we follow all EU legislation, sign up to a non regression clause so we don't compete. Promise total security guarantees together with oversight of the ECJ.
Tusk very early on said he wanted to sign an association agreement the same as Ukraine and Moldova. This puts us somewhere mid Atlantic with Macrons concentric rings.
They let the cat out of the bag yesterday when the Irish MP said after agreeing the withdrawal bill and starting the implementation period, they would formally reject Chequers and as the period ended wouldn't agree an Irish solution so there would be an indefinite extension to the implementation period.
Game, set and match to Hammond, May and Robbins.
hardlymatters
Nothing new here- same old anti EU, anti French stuff, that we have come to expect. The public would be much more impressed if the Tories could get it's own house in order? maybe at the party Conference? who knows?.. EU Inner circles/ and outer circles matters not one bit to us with the country going down the pan..and now trade with African countries? Indeed
Jung Gell
@hardlymatters
Is there something about trading with …Africa…something deep… you have a self-unrecognised thing about?
On the whole the problem with remainers is they are locked into the past, around about 1958.
If you however were growing an international business you would know where FUTURE potential lies
Africa has been growing very quickly. There are more than 1 billion people in Africa Growth has been present throughout the continent, with over one-third of Sub-Saharan African countries posting 6% or higher growth rates, and another 40% growing between 4% to 6% per year. Several international business observers have also named Africa as the future economic growth engine of the world
But yeh lets have a round of applause for the EU FTA with the Pitcairn Islands Moldova, Palestine and San Marino
" Several international business observers have also named Africa as the future economic growth engine of the world"
Are you sure? I wonder who they are.
A survey for the period 1990–2000 compiled by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ranked South Africa second for assault and murder (by all means) per capita and first for rapes per capita in a data set of 60 countries. Total crime per capita was 10th out of the 60 countries in the dataset
Yet it comprises 35% of GDP for the whole of the continent.
My South African relatives all live in compounds with 24-hour guard protection as it is the only place where they feel relatively safe. Using public transport is taboo.
And the new government has started copying Mugabe and threatening to throw white farmers off their land.
Not very conducive to business. Personally, I prefer the EU.
You are trying to argue against economic growth using crime statistics.
There is little or no connection.
America has a high crime rate yet is wealthy.
Are you sure there are more connections between the past and the future? (Y/comment above to m.h.)
"Trust would likely be lost if an honour was awarded to someone with negative tax behaviours"
What an interesting concept tax concept of "negative tax behaviours" surely it should be clear from the tax code that the tax is either due or not due. What on earth is "negative tax behaviours". Paying more than you have to and then watching the state waste most of it surely is negative.
What phenomenon is the expression, "anti-migrant", supposed to describe? Is it a reference to a regulatory burden (that must be satisfied before legally moving from one country to another)?
What of the man, foreign or native, who would like to make a better life for his family but is prevented from doing so by the burden of taxation? Does that make tax laws (and those who support them), "anti-provider"?
john edwin catley
Our host correctly points out that a Transfer Union is a major stumbling block for the E.U.
I fear that it will remain so and the situation will deteriorate further. This could ultimately result in an implosion within the E.U. The consequences of such an eventuality are not readily predictable. Yet I sense that daily they become more probable. As someone once said ;
" I hear a clock ticking ".
Peter D Gardner
In which case, Dr Redwood, how come Mrs May finds it so hard to stand up for UK's interests? She is not daft. One can conclude only that she does not want UK to be independent and really, really, wants UK to be a vassal of the EU. When, for crying out loud, is the Conservative Party, going to wake to it now being as responsible for her betrayal as the lady herself? You must replace her asap.
Prigger
I look at many foreign news outlets. My computer automatically translates. I still find it miraculous.
No problem in understanding, despite the odd incorrect word, even in small languages not using the Latin alphabet.
But when it translates AfD tiny instantaneous messages published in German ( without giving a free advert to the social media company ), often it is unreadable, I do not understand even the gist.
Well I get the general gist anyway. The AfD is dealing with a breakdown of democracy in Germany.
How arrogant: a two tier Europe. It smacks of their perceived superiority and I find it nauseating.A democratic union; as you do as long as we say. Eccentric would be a better description.
By the way, who was talking about a Europe with variable geometry, about a two-speed Europe? Macron? Yes recently, but it is a very old idea: Edouard Balladur, French PM in 1994 was already proposing such a thing.
And I could not find any track of a British politician complaining about such an idea in those days.
Give to them!
History really never teaches a lesson which was taught.
We can be sure France and Germany will over-fulfil and prove that "Mr Macron's vision is backward looking and out of time.
Out of the EU, we may take commercial advantage of them. They do not ask for it. But insist in their own doing "Take me!"
I am sorry to see you have caught the use of the phrase "anti-migrant" from the BBC. No-one is anti-migrant. It is out of control mass immigration, otherwise known as illegal immigration or invasion, that people in Europe object to.
No. It is uncontrolled immigration both legal and illegal.
On the contrary. Huge numbers of people on the hard right and hard left are anti-migrant.
A quick vocabulary lesson.
ILLEGAL – Illegals are here illegally. That means they have no right to be here. Brexit will not help. Illegals will still be illegal. Just because someone looks foreign does not mean they are illegal.
INVASION – People fleeing conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya, Iraq etc are not invading. They are fleeing for their lives. You do not jump in a dinghy to cross the Med with your baby and a toddler just for laughs. You risk your life and their lives because it is the least worst option. Thank god that you have been lucky enough in life never to have to make that choice.
MASS IMMIGRATION – during the global Great Recession we had several years of well above trend migration because our economy was doing better than most and we had more jobs. It has helped us, not harmed us and it is a short lived phenomenon. The biggest driver of population growth remains increasing life expectancy.
The worst thing in the whole migration debate is the frightening extent to which the hard right and hard left wingers have lost any sense of humanity that they once may have had. It's pitiful.
You very nice middle class liberals need to build us a new city every year then Andy.
Come on get on with it.
"The biggest driver of population growth remains increasing life expectancy."
If that is the case then a massive reduction in population (not helped by immigration) would make life longevity a non issue.
In the really good old days, we heard about the President of France maybe once every five years, which was quite enough for everyone.
We never knew or cared who was top dog in Germany. We still don't care.
Fake News rams them down our throats every day as if they are important . They may be important, but one can't think why.
In the good old days kids used to work down mines, women did what they were ordered to and most people died in their 30s.
Thank god for progress.
So it's' back to Methuselah?'
Slavery has returned to Britain, according to the BBC. Whilst in the EU.
Because of the EU. Without Free Movement of People slavery would not exist here.
Makes me wonder what May really was up to behind our backs when she dropped in on Macron a few weeks ago.
Tiered Europe indeed, obviously with france at the prime seat of the inner circle. One can only laugh at that.
It won't happen. More likely Merkel will be ousted by AfD before then, and we'll see the french trying to get pally pally with us. Only this time around, we're not interested.
The EU will break apart in spectacular fashion, it's got too big, is constantly annoying Russia, has quite a number of countries opposed to EU rule, and cannot defend itself without the
ALL empires eventually fail and I'm glad I'll witness the EU's break up in my
lifetime.
We're not interested. And the French President needs to be told this both loudly and often.
"Mrs Merkel is finding it very difficult to hold her coalition together"
Fortunately she hasn't yet had to pay £1b in Danegeld to a German equivalent of the grubby DUP party to keep herself and her party in power. The German electorate wouldn't stand for it.
Money is being spent in what the German Govt call key areas of need.
Oddly these seem to be areas where coalition party members have their power bases.
Funny comment, as the largest fraction of such money is not distributed by the federal government but by the Laender governments, so obviously much more regionally based. Do you check that you know what you are talking about when you react to a comment, dear?
Yes thanks sweetly.
Who knows what back room deals she does each time she goes into coalition?
The DUP are not grubby. They are the last moral party left. They asked that the old people across the Kingdom retain their existing benefits, which Mrs May was threatening, and they also asked for money to be spent on the mental health of people across the Province who had been exceptionally badly affected by the Troubles.
Not Danegeld but decency. Look up what Danegeld means.
PS for existing benefits read existing benefits and entitlements.
Colin Robinson
"Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards"
John Redwood 17th July 2016
Reply Yes, a good statement. We unfortunately have not played our cards. I said can not will be


Stone Oak in Round, Texas is a community located in the midst of new home growth and booming commercial development. Stone Oak is flanked to the northeast by Texas Crushed Stone Quarry, one of the largest stone quarries in the world. Round Rock ISD services the Stone Oak community and Chandler Oaks Elementary is set to opened in the Fall of 2010.
Stone Oak homeowners can enjoy a swimming pool and two park areas. One of the park areas has picnic tables, swings and tree-shaded benches. Throughout the neighborhood there are several green areas for exploring and enjoying nature. Trails wind their way through the neighborhood as well.
Stone Oak is convenient to major shopping centers. One center located to the east at I35 and FM1431 contains the Round Rock Prime Outlets, IKEA, JCPenney, ROSS and many restaurants. To the west is Palmer where there's an HEB, Home Depot, Austin Pizza, Starbucks and much more. Being located on FM1431 has many benefits to getting around town.
Stone Oak content provided by Rachelle.


text:
Q: Web Browser MultiThreded Casting Exception Up till now I had a single threaded app that crawled web sites.
Because I want to make it faster, I tried rebuilding to a multihreaded  app.
this is what i do:
I have a Crawl Class, that hold a WebBrowser object.
This is how I start the thread:
 Crawler c1 = new Crawler();
 Thread t1 = new Thread(new ThreadStart(c1.Crawl));
 t1.SetApartmentState(ApartmentState.STA);
 t1.start()

The threads arrive to this functions:
 LogIn(bool isInit)
 {
   browser = new WebBrowser();
   NavigateAndWaitForLoad(browser, "http://www.someurl.com", 1000);
   HtmlElement elemEmail = (HtmlElement)browser.Document.GetElementById("email");
  }

 void NavigateAndWaitForLoad(WebBrowser wb, string link, int waitTime)
  {
   wb.Navigate(link);
   int count = 0;
   while (wb.ReadyState != WebBrowserReadyState.Complete)
   {
    Thread.Sleep(sleepTimeMiliseconds);
    Application.DoEvents();
    count++;
    if (count > waitTime / sleepTimeMiliseconds)
        break;
    }

Now in the single threaded it works great,
However in the mutlithreded app it crashes on this line:
 HtmlElement elemEmail = (HtmlElement)browser.Document.GetElementById("email");
with the exception of illegal casting???!!!
have no idea why?
please help...

A: You're using the WebBrowser object, Application.DoEvents, and Thread.Sleep. Bad, bad, bad. You're asking for trouble here.
Suggestion:
If you're just building a web crawler, just use WebClient to download web pages as a string. Then, if you need to parse it into an HTML document, use HtmlAgilityPack.
This way, you can avoid using the web browser UI control, you can avoid doing Thread.Sleep, you can avoid the accidental recursion-inducing Application.DoEvents.
Here's a sample:
public async void DownloadWebPage(string address)
{
    using(var webClient = new WebClient())
    {
        var webPageContents = await webClient.DownloadStringTaskAsync();

        // Woohoo, we have the contents of the web page. Do anything with it...
        Console.WriteLine(webPageContents);
    }
}

// Usage:
DownloadWebPage("http://www.google.com");

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
FBI releases declassified report on Insane Clown Posse gang threat
In 2011, the FBI classified Insane Clown Posse's group of fans, the Juggalos, as a "loosely organized hybrid gang"
on July 11, 2018, 5:38pm
The Juggalos vs. The FBI
It's been seven years since the FBI classified Insane Clown Posse's group of fans, aka the Juggalos, as a "loosely organized hybrid gang." Since then, there have been numerous legal challenges and even a march on Washington, DC — but as recently as last December, a federal court ruled that the Juggalos failed to show that the FBI's classification had resulted in legal consequences.
The FBI report in question has now been declassified and available to view in full below — albeit with a number of redactions. The report opens with background information on ICP and includes some hilarious conclusions. Most notably: "Insane Clown Posse can't get its music on the radio, but claims to have 1 million devoted fans who call themselves 'Juggalos' or 'Juggalettes,' and sometimes paint their faces to look like wicked clowns."
The Juggalos, according to the FBI, "follow the ICP in almost a religious manner" and notes that the group's teachings are imbedded in their lyrics, movies, album covers, and websites. Surprisingly, there's no mention of Faygo, which seems like a huge oversight.
Elsewhere in the report, the FBI cites a confidential source who claims the Juggalos "are in a type of gang war in California with the MS-13 gang and are holding their own against them."
The rest of the report is made up of numerous redacted emails and press clippings, which chronicle numerous crimes perpetrated by known Juggalo members including "drug sales, drug possession, and child endangerment, as well as many other crimes typically seen by gang and gang members."
CoS Instagram
Juggalos
Bruce Springsteen performs "This Hard Land" for first Broadway encore: Watch
Rob Zombie and Marilyn Manson team up for cover of The Beatles' "Helter Skelter": Stream

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
<?php

/**
 * IPluggableUserModule interface file.
 *
 * This interface is made to identify the modules that may be responsible
 * for holding user authentication processes.
 *
 * @author Anastaszor
 */
interface IPluggableUserModule extends IPluggableWebModule
{

	/**
	 * Gets the action that will be used to log the user.
	 *
	 * @return string
	 */
	public function getLoginAction();

	/**
	 * Gets the action that will be used to do the confirmation of authentication
	 * for the user to upgrade its ring privilege.
	 *
	 * @return string
	 */
	public function getRingUpdateAction();

	/**
	 * Gets the connection manager module. If this module self-manages
	 * its connections, then this method should return itself.
	 *
	 * @return IPluggableConnectionModule
	 */
	public function getConnectionModule($id = null);

	/**
	 * Gets the connection identifier from the manager module. If this module
	 * self-manages its connections, it should accept the identifier it gives
	 * from this method.
	 *
	 * @return string
	 */
	public function getConnectionIdentifier();

	/**
	 * Gets an user profile from an user identity.
	 *
	 * @param IPluggableWebUser $user
	 * @return IPluggableUserProfile, null if the profile does not exists.
	 */
	public function getUserProfile(IPluggableWebUser $user);

	/**
	 * Gets an user profile from an user id.
	 *
	 * @param string $userId
	 * @return IPluggableUserProfile, null if the profile does not exists.
	 */
	public function getUserProfileFromId($userId);

	/**
	 * Create a new profile if a similar profile does not exists, then it
	 * and the user is authenticated, then it should be created.
	 * If the user cannot be created, null is returned.
	 *
	 * @param IPluggableWebUser $user
	 * @return IPluggableUserProfile
	 */
	public function createUserProfile(IPluggableWebUser $user);

	/**
	 * Removes a profile from given authenticated user and from given module.
	 *
	 * @param IPluggableWebUser $user
	 * @return boolean true if the profile does not exists anymore.
	 */
	public function removeUserProfile(IPluggableWebUser $user);

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Tropical Medicine and Health
Volume 42 (2014) Issue 2
Current Trends of Immunization in Nigeria: Prospect and Challenges
Endurance A. Ophori, Musa Y. Tula, Azuka V. Azih, Rachel Okojie, Precious E. Ikpo
Endurance A. Ophori
Department of Microbiology (Immunology unit), Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Benin
Present address: Department of Biological Sciences, College of Natural and Applied Sciences, Novena University
Musa Y. Tula
Azuka V. Azih
Rachel Okojie
Precious E. Ikpo
Keywords: immunization, childhood diseases, Nigeria, religious and ethnic beliefs
JOURNAL FREE ACCESS FULL-TEXT HTML
2014 Volume 42 Issue 2 Pages 67-75
DOI https://doi.org/10.2149/tmh.2013-13
Browse "Advance online publication" version
Published: 2014 Received: May 11, 2013 Released on J-STAGE: July 12, 2014 Accepted: August 29, 2013 Advance online publication: April 23, 2014 Revised: -
Full-text HTML Download PDF (250K)
Cited by (65)
Immunization is aimed at the prevention of infectious diseases. In Nigeria, the National Programme on Immunization (NPI) suffers recurrent setbacks due to many factors including ethnicity and religious beliefs. Nigeria is made up of 36 states with its federal capital in Abuja. The country is divided into six geo-political zones; north central, north west, north east, south east, south west and south south. The population is unevenly distributed across the country. The average population density in 2006 was estimated at 150 people per square kilometres with Lagos, Anambra, Imo, Abia, and Akwa Ibom being the most densely populated states. Most of the densely populated states are found in the south east. Kano with an average density of 442 persons per square kilometre, is the most densely populated state in the northern part of the country. This study presents a review on the current immunization programme and the many challenges affecting its success in the eradication of childhood diseases in Nigeria.
© 2014 Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine
Proceedings of the Japan Society of Tropical Medicine
[journal title in Japanese]
NETTAI
Japanese Journal of Tropical Medicine
Japanese Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Edited and published by Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine
Production services Nakanishi Printing Co., Ltd.(Vol.39 No.2-), Showado communications co. (-Vol.39 No.1)


@acffiorentina on Instagram have full name is ACF Fiorentina. Here you can discover all stories, photos, videos posted by acffiorentina on Instagram.
You can see all stories, posts, likes, followers, followings, comments, and so on identified with ACF Fiorentina Instagram Profile from here.
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On the off chance that you need take after more updates or need to get general cautions at whatever point acffiorentina posts anything on instagram click here and follow the user.


We will be closed on Monday, September 3rd in observance of Labor Day!
During The 36th annual Quilt Show put on by the Des Moines Area Quilters Guild, we will be opened extended hours....Thursday, September 27 and Friday, September 28th we will be open 9am-7pm and Saturday, September 29th from 9am-6pm. For more information about the Quilt Show, go to dmaqg.org or follow Des Moines Area Quilters Guild on Facebook.
We still have plenty of room for people to join us in the UFO Friday Afternoon Club that meets this Friday, August 31st from 1-4 pm. If you have any UFO's, this club is for you! $10 for the whole year, wine and cheese every month, and prizes at the end of the year! Great motivational way to get the UFO's that are sitting on your sewing table, completed!
The Beginning Garment Making: Bondi Top Class has been re-scheduled for Sunday, September 9th from 1-4. This class is taught by Tracy Feldmann, an officer on the Des Moines Sewing Guild Board and an Iowa State Fair Blue ribbon winner on a wide variety of items she placed in the Iowa State Fair. Tracy is a beautiful seamstress and an excellent teacher, filled with lots of knowledge and tidbits of suggestions to take a normal pattern and turn it into something amazing!
Accurate Rotary Cutting is the recommended for the Beginning Quilt Making Classes Session 1 being offered on Thursday, September 13th and Beginning Quilt Making Session 2 being offered on Thursday, September 27th, both 6-8 pm.
Binding Basics will complete the series, which will be offered on Thursday, October 18th from 6-8 pm.
Foundation Paper Piecing taught by Sharon Meisenheimer on Tuesday, October 2nd. This class is almost full, so if you are thinking about it, act now before it becomes too late.
So whether you are buying a new machine, or one being clearanced out, the Pfaff sewing machine will last you for years. Pfaff will still honor all warranties on a close-out-priced machine. At these prices, now is a great time to buy a new sewing machine! If we don't have one in stock, we are more than happy to order the machine for you.
This weeks coupon is 10% off one fabric or wool kit we have in stock in the store. This coupon is good 08/28/2018-09/02/2018.