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Partial Assessment of Turkey's Post-Coup Attempt Military Purge
By: Jennifer Cafarella with Elizabeth Sercombe and Charles Vallee
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ongoing military purge is not merely a response to a coup, but an aggressive restructure, rebranding, and reorientation of the Turkish military. Erdogan began to purge the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) after elements of it launched an unsuccessful coup attempt on July 15, 2016. Turkish security forces detained nearly 10,000 service members including 143 general officers and admirals in the first week, totaling over 1/3 of the officer corps. Erdogan justified his crackdown on a counterterrorism basis, claiming to remove members of exiled cleric Fetullah Gulen's movement, which Turkish authorities have designated as the "Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO)." He has also dismissed, and in some cases arrested, tens of thousands of judges, civil society members, and academics, and he closed down dozens of newspapers. The extent of Erdogan's purge and his use of a counterterrorism justification demonstrate his intent to use the coup attempt as an excuse to transform the Turkish military into a source of personal power and eliminate sources of dissent in Turkey.
The current military purge is part of an ongoing campaign by Erdogan to eliminate threats to his Islamist regime. The Turkish military historically has a secular culture and views itself as a protector of the post-Ataturk democratic society. Erdogan thus views the military as a threat to his vision of an Islamist autocracy and has taken steps to eliminate it since 2007. He dismissed 400 Turkish officers including 37 generals and admirals in response to alleged coup conspiracies between 2007 and 2010, prompting the resignation of the Chief of the General Staff and the Commanders of the Turkish Navy, Land Force, and Air Force. About half of the Brigadier Generals and Rear Admirals removed this month were promoted to their rank after the initial purges. Erdogan's aggressive measures after the recent failed coup attempt indicates that he likely seeks to finish his long-time campaign through this final purge.
Erdogan's purge targeted a wide swath of the TSK leadership. He used the justification of alleged membership of individual commanders to the alleged FETO rather than direct participation in the coup attempt itself. The main units that participated in the coup attempt were the Istanbul Gendarmerie, the Istanbul-based 1st Army 3rd Corps, the Ankara-based 2nd Army 4th Corps, the 4th Main Jet Base group at Akinci, and the 10th Tanker regiment at the Incirlik Airbase in Adana. Erdogan nonetheless extended his purge throughout non-combat units that did not appear to play a direct role in the coup attempt.. He purged the General Staff, the Training and Doctrine Command, and Turkey's military and police intelligence community, which he condemned for "significant gaps and deficiencies" in failing to prevent the coup attempt. Erdogan's purge centralizes his authority, removes internal resistance, and takes control of the training programs for young military officers in order to retain control of the TSK's future.
Erdogan is centralizing his control over a new national security apparatus as he consolidates. He stated in his first interview after the coup attempt: "a new structure will be emerging. With this new structure, I believe the armed forces will get fresh blood." Turkish Prime Minister Yildrum later provided additional details, stating: "There are problems in [the] hierarchy between lower level and senior level [officials.] We will restructure [the army] in a manner that will resolve these problems." His statement indicates that Erdogan will collapse some command echelons in order to ensure that the culture and ideology at the now-loyal senior officer ranks diffuses throughout the entire force. A Turkish parliamentary official reported that Erdogan intends to transfer control of the General Staff and MIT from the Prime Minister's office to his own, which would provide Erdogan with direct operational control over the TSK and Turkey's intelligence establishment. The move requires parliamentary approval, which he will almost certainly receive. He is also empowering the Turkish police, which played a major role halting the coup attempt. Turkish Interior Minister Efkan Ala announced that Turkish police will be equipped with heavy weapons on July 28. The strengthening of the Turkish Police is likely a mechanism to balance the strength of the Turkish Gendarmerie, elements of which participated in the coup attempt.
Erdogan will also reward commanders that remained loyal to him during the coup attempt by promoting them to senior positions within the government after they finish their service. The career trajectories of these commanders will signal how Erdogan is consolidating his personal control over the Turkish security apparatus. Commanders to watch out for include:
· Chief of the General Staff General Hulusi Akar and his deputy General Yaşar Güler
· Air Force Commander General Abidin Ünal
· Navy Commander Bulent Bostanoglu
· Land Forces Commander General Salih Zeki Colak
· Turkish Police Chief Celalettin Lekesiz
· Istanbul Police Chief Mustafa Caliskan,
· Commander of the Ankara Gendarmerie Ferdi Korkmaz.
Erdogan's purge affects the American military relationship with Turkey. In the short term, the TSK will have limited ability to conduct military operations as Erdogan completes his purge and restructure. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General James Stravridis said Erdogan's purge is having a "chilling effect" on the TSK, stating, "there will be a strong negative impact on the ability of the Turkish military to perform its duties across the spectrum of alliance activities." Previous options in the anti-ISIS fight such as deploying large numbers of TSK to shut down the Syrian-Turkish border are likely now unviable in the short term, even if Erdogan wanted to undertake them. Erdogan's consolidation of personal power and removal of the TSK's secular culture will likely also have long-term implications for Turkish-American military relations.
This report will present a partial assessment of the Turkish Order of Battle prior to the coup based upon the rank and position of general officers and admirals that either remained loyal to Erdogan during the coup attempt (highlighted in green) or that were purged in the first week after the coup attempt (highlighted in red).
Turkish Land Forces
1st Army (Istanbul). The 1st Army is headquartered in Istanbul with units stationed along Turkey's borders with Greece and Bulgaria. 1st Army Commander General Umit Dundar was critical to Erdogan's victory over the coup attempt. He warned Erdogan of the coup early enough to enable Erdogan to escape detention. He later appeared on television to declare the coup illegitimate, projecting a source of strength and anti-coup sentiment that fueled anti-coup protests. He then led police and civilians to retake the Ataturk International Airport.
The 5th Corps' 54th Mechanized Infantry Brigade is headquartered in Erdine and stationed along Turkey's borders with Greece and Bulgaria. Turkish security forces arrested its commander, Brigadier General Hidayet Ari Erdine.
The 1st Army also includes the Izmir-based 3rd Corps, currently designated as the NATO Response Force –Turkey. Numerous 3rd Corps units participated in the coup attempt. Turkish security forces arrested 3rd Corps Commander Lieutenant General Erdal Ozturk, although his exact role in the coup attempt is unclear. The 52nd Tactical Armored Division's 66th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, based in Hasdal Istanbul, participated in the seizure of the Ataturk Airport. Turkish security forces arrested its commander Brigadier General Mehmet Nail Yiğit.
2nd Army (Malatya). The 2nd Army is headquartered in Malataya with units stationed along Turkey's borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. It is Turkey's second largest land formation at 100,000 troops, including three corps. The 2nd Army is the ostensible "invasion force" - Erdogan would use it in a military intervention into Syria, but had objected to proposals for intervention in the past. It played a large role in anti-PKK operations in southeastern Syria.
Turkish security forces arrested 2nd Army Commander General Adem Huduti and Chief of Staff Avni Angun along with most of the commanding officers in the Diyarbakir-based 7th Corps, including three mechanized units. Erdogan's purge of the 2nd Army may make it more amenable for use in Syria in the future. Alternately, the purge could neuter the 2nd Army, requiring Erdogan to consider other options for influence in Syria. An alliance with Syrian Salafi-jihadi groups is one possibility, as a previous ISW report examined.
3rd Army (Erzincan). The 3rd Army is the largest Turkish land formation. It is headquartered in Erzincan with units stationed along Turkey's borders with Armenia and Georgia. 3rd Army Commander Ismail Serdar Savas remained loyal to Erdogan during the coup attempt. The purge left the 3rd Army's leadership largely intact, possibly indicating its loyalty to Erdogan.
Aegean Army Command (4th Army) (İzmir). The Aegean Army Command is headquartered at Izmir with units stationed along the west coast of the Anatolia peninsula. It consists primarily of training brigades and the Cyprus Turkish Peace Force. Turkish authorities arrested its Chief of Staff Mehmduh Hakbilen and Deputy Chief of Staff Hakan Eser during the purge.
Additional NATO Units
The military requirements of allied NATO nations has not deterred Erdogan's purge. Erdogan has eliminated numerous Turkish generals serving in positions for NATO, demonstrating a newfound defiance. Erdogan's disruption of NATO could simply be an unhindered extension of his aggressive purge. Alternatively, he could be setting conditions to break with NATO by drawing back Turkey's role.
Allied Land Command
NATO's Allied Land Command (LANDCOM) is based in Izmir alongside the Aegean Army. Its duties include serving as the "headquarters element responsible for the conduct of land operations and the synchronization of land forces command and control (C2)" for NATO operations. Turkish authorities arrested the LANDCOM Chief of Staff, Salih Sevil on July 20.
Resolute Support - Afghanistan
The United Arab Emirates authorities detained the Commander of the Turkish Task Force for NATOs Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, Major General Cahit Bakir, and the Commander of the Train, Advice, and Assist Command (TAAC) in Kabul, Brigadier General Sener Topuc, and handed them over to Turkish MIT on July 26, 2016. Bakir previously served as the Head of Turkish Air Force Intelligence until his deployment to Afghanistan in January 2015.
Turkish Air Force
Erdogan's purge of the Turkish Air Force constituted ¼ of the total general officers/admirals purged in the first week after the coup attempt. Erdogan removed the commander of all nine Main Jet Base Group Commands, units that include combat air wings. The arrests included the Commander of the 10th Tanker Base Command at Incirlik Air Base, General Bekir Ercan Van, who requested American asylum prior to his arrest. American officials denied any involvement in the coup attempt, but the prominent role of the 10th Tanker Base has provoked popular demonstrations against the U.S. presence at Incirlik. A consolidation of command and control over Turkey's combat air wings could position Erdogan to halt Turkey's participation in anti-ISIS operations without meeting internal resistance.
Turkish Navy
Erdogan's purge of the Navy was less severe, but included two key commanders: Commander of the Black Sea Region, Rear Admiral Hasan Dogan, and Commander of the Dardanelles Straight, Rear Admiral Serdar Ahmet Gundogdu. The Black Sea Region and Dardanelles Straight are strategic regions for Turkey in its relationship with Russia. It is unclear whether both commanders participated in the coup attempt, but Erdogan likely seeks to install loyal leaders in these positions.
This report does not examine detained military personnel at echelons below the general officer/admiral level or the additional personnel dishonorably discharged on July 28. Two unidentified generals in the Land Forces have also since resigned. The purge of these personnel is likely concentrated in key geographic areas where Erdogan seeks to solidify his control. Istanbul and Ankara are likely highly represented, along with Izmir, which hosts the 3rd Corps/NATO Rapid Reaction Force.
Erdogan is reshaping Turkey's foreign policy away from U.S. interests as he carries out his purge. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper outlined the effect of Erdogan's purge on July 29, stating "many of our interlocutors have been purged or arrested. There's no question this is going to set back and make more difficult cooperation with the Turks." Erdogan and loyal Turkish authorities have also fueled anti-U.S. rhetoric within Turkey. Erdogan created a narrative that the U.S. supported the coup attempt because of the asylum provided to Fetullah Gulen. Turkish officials and media outlets loyal to Erdogan have gone even further, stating that the US was directly behind the coup attempt. One outlet accused former US International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Commander General John F. Campbell of orchestrating the coup attempt. The anti-American sentiment Erdogan is stoking during his purge may indicate that he is setting conditions for a pivot in Turkish foreign policy away from the U.S.
Erdogan is meanwhile pursuing a closer partnership with Russia. Turkey and Russia have revived talks over the Turkstream deal since the failed coup attempt, which would expand Russia's access to the European gas market. Turkish authorities have also alleged that the Turkish pilot who shot down a Russian jet in November 2015 was a rogue FETO member, further distancing the Turkish government from the escalation. Former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu contradicted the allegation, stating unequivocally "I gave the order." Davutoglu's statement suggests Erdogan is using the alleged FETO conspiracy to ease his rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdogan is scheduled to meet with Putin on August 9th in St. Petersburg. Erdogan's purge of Turkish commanders serving in NATO raises the question of whether he is considering leaving the alliance, perhaps to enter into a partnership with Russia. He is most likely to balance both relationships in the near term, but American policymakers must nonetheless brace for the new reality that America's alliance with Turkey is not guaranteed.
Labels: Coup, Erdogan, NATO, Recep Erdogan, turkey
Avoiding al Qaeda's Syria Trap: Jabhat al Nusra's Rebranding
By Jennifer Cafarella and Katherine Zimmerman
The leader of al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, announced the end of his group's operations and the creation of a new entity named Jabhat Fatah al Sham today. He claims that this new organization has "no affiliation to any external entity." The maneuver removes a key obstacle Jabhat al Nusra faced in Syria, namely the al Qaeda brand name, but it does not denote a change in the group's Salafi-jihadi ideology. Rather, the break will facilitate the unification of armed Syrian opposition groups around a core that still pursues al Qaeda's long-term objective of establishing an Islamic emirate in Syria.
The cancellation of Jabhat al Nusra's operations and rebranding of Jabhat al Nusra fighters does not remove the group from the global Salafi-jihadi movement, which believes in the use of violence to establish shari'a-based governance. Jabhat al Nusra will continue to fight to advance Syrian Salafi-jihadi interests under its new name. It has not renounced its vision of establishing an Islamic emirate in Syria. It has instead improved its chances of success by removing obstacles to unify the opposition under its leadership.
Syrian Salafi-jihadi groups want to unify opposition groups to increase the effectiveness of their war against the Assad regime. U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper today noted that the formation of Jabhat Fatah al Sham likely aimed to "create the image of being more moderate in an attempt to unify and galvanize and appeal to other oppositionist (sic) groups in Syria." Jabhat al Nusra and Syrian Salafi-jihadi group Harakat Ahrar al Sham al Islamiya created a joint coordinating body with other opposition groups in northwestern Syria in March 2015 and seized most of Idlib Province from the regime. The success of the coordinating body, the so- called Army of Conquest, proved the value of deeper coordination within the opposition. The groups have been negotiating over a "grand merger" since.
The decision to form Jabhat Fatah al Sham removes the primary source of the opposition's resistance to a merger. Opposition groups have been hesitant to merge with Jabhat al Nusra for fear that affiliation with an al Qaeda branch would justify Russia's air campaign and cause the U.S.-led coalition to target them. Russia claims to conduct counter-terrorism operations in Syria while using its air campaign to advance other objectives such as preserving the Assad regime. The U.S. is exploring a possible partnership with Moscow against Jabhat al Nusra, moreover. Today's announcement may be timed to disrupt the formation of this partnership.
It was certainly part of a plan coordinated with al Qaeda's central leadership. Al Qaeda sanctioned the decision to form a new group in a message released today. This was no break from al Qaeda, but rather the execution of a deliberate global strategy on behalf of the movement. The al Qaeda statement emphasized that "the brotherhood of Islam that is between us is stronger than all the finite, ever-changing organizational links."
Al Qaeda has never seen itself as having to direct, let alone brand, the global jihad. It aims, rather, to be the vehicle that unifies the ranks for the fight. Its founding members, including Osama bin Laden, believed that Islamists failed to achieve their objectives because they were disorganized and working at cross-purposes. Factionalism, according to al Qaeda, defeated the jihad. Al Qaeda, therefore, intentionally supports local Salafi-jihadi groups around the world and seeks to unify them over time. Some bear its name, others do not. Bin Laden instructed its affiliate in Somalia, al Shabaab, not to reveal its status, in fact, in order to protect it against Western attack. Al Shabaab's allegiance to al Qaeda only became public in February 2012, when bin Laden's successor, Ayman al Zawahiri, recognized the group as a formal affiliate.
Jabhat al Nusra's split from al Qaeda should not affect the contours of the actual relationship. Al Qaeda has supported Jabhat al Nusra through the "Khorasan" cell, which provides strategic advice and guidance to Jabhat al Nusra's leaders. This linkage may persist. Jabhat al Nusra-under its new name-will also continue to cooperate with elements of the al Qaeda network in Syria, including the Turkistan Islamic Party. Salafi-jihadi groups and financiers would still see the Syrian jihad as the primary fight today, furthermore. They may even face fewer restrictions on providing support now that the group is not affiliated with al Qaeda. The split also does not prevent future realignment or mutual support between a unified opposition and al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda has set a trap for the U.S. in Syria. Basing policy on the formal affiliation of a group to al Qaeda creates a major national security risk as al Qaeda and other organizations play these rules against us. American policymakers should instead make decisions based on the threat Salafi-jihadi actors pose using an understanding of their inherent ideology and objectives. By those measures, the new group remains a core part of the global Salafi-jihadi movement of which al Qaeda is the leader. It benefits from and strengthens that movement enormously. Its rebranding was tactically shrewd. If it befuddles the U.S. into believing that it is not a threat, it will have been brilliant. It is up to America's leaders to recognize it instead for the meaningless gesture it is.
Labels: Al Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), Syria
Russian Airstrikes in Syria: June 29 - July 27, 2016
By Jonathan Mautner and Christopher Kozak
Russia enabled pro-regime forces to complete the physical encirclement of Aleppo City on July 28, isolating the primary nexus of the non-jihadist opposition in Northern Syria. These gains threaten the long-term survival of mainstream opposition groups that could serve as potential partners against ISIS and Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. Russian warplanes continued to concentrate airstrikes against opposition targets on the northern and western outskirts of Aleppo City from July 14 - 27, allowing pro-regime forces to seize positions along the Castello Highway that serves as the only major ground line of communication (GLOC) into opposition-held districts in the eastern half of the city. Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu announced on July 28 that Russian President Vladimir Putin would authorize a "large-scale humanitarian operation" around Aleppo City in order to "help civilians…taken hostage by terrorists" while pro-regime forces opened a number of evacuation routes for the estimated 250,000 civilians that remain in Eastern Aleppo City. On the same day, Assad issued an offer of general amnesty for any opposition fighters that surrender to the regime within the next three months. The proposals regarding humanitarian support and national reconciliation, however, coincided with continued airstrikes against critical infrastructure and densely-populated urban terrain within Aleppo City, suggesting that Russia likely aims to depopulate Aleppo City in preparation for concerted pro-regime ground operations to force the surrender of opposition groups within the city.
Russia also intensified its air operations in Eastern Homs Province in a likely attempt to preserve its legitimacy as a viable international partner in the Syrian Civil War. Russia concentrated its strikes on the eastern outskirts of Palmyra – a key crossroads town that provides the regime with a launching point for future operations into Eastern Syria. Russia invested significant resources into the operation to seize Palmyra in March 2016 and spun the victory as a triumph against terrorism that justified its narrative for intervention into the Syrian Civil War. Recent advances by ISIS near Palmyra have threatened to undermine this narrative. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it sortied six long-range strategic bombers from Russia to strike alleged ISIS targets near Palmyra on July 21, marking the second such sortie in the past month. The regime later deployed over 1,000 Iranian-backed Iraqi and Afghan Shi'a militia fighters to Palmyra on July 25 in order to reinforce the defenses of the city. Russia will likely continue to prioritize its campaign against ISIS in Eastern Homs Province in order to preempt its potential resurgence in the region and protect its claims to be a credible partner against violent extremism.
Russia continues to wage its air campaign in a manner aimed at shaping the terms of a potential end-state to the Syrian Civil War in accordance with its strategic objectives. Putin has leveraged his role in the conflict in order to attract the U.S. into a one-sided partnership that will ultimately benefit Assad. On July 26, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that talks regarding potential cooperation with Russia in Syria against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra had been "making progress" and noted that final details could be announced as early as August 2016. The continued consideration of a bilateral deal despite the looming siege of Aleppo City will likely encourage Russia to continue its operations unchecked against large swaths of the mainstream opposition under the guise of counter-terrorism. Continued attacks against mainstream opposition groups will fuel further radicalization and consolidation under the leadership of jihadist groups. At the same time, Russia continued to promote itself as a constructive diplomatic actor by participating in a trilateral meeting with the U.S. and UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura on July 26 that urged a resumption of political negotiations. Russia will use its military influence to set conditions on the ground that force the U.S. into tacit acceptance of the long-term preservation of the regime.
The following graphic depicts ISW's assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia's air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
Labels: Aleppo, Palmyra, Putin, Russia, Russian Airstrikes, Syria, Syrian Civil War
Iraq Situation Report: July 19-25, 2016
By Emily Anagnostos and the ISW Iraq Team
ISIS detonated a Suicide Vest (SVEST) in Kadhimiyah in northwestern Baghdad on July 24, and a Suicide Vehicle Borne-IED (SVBIED) at a checkpoint in Khalis, in Diyala Province, on July 25 in order to distract from anti-ISIS operations and undermine the Iraqi state. The spectacular attacks undermine the narrative that recapturing Fallujah would increase security for Baghdad. The attack at an entrance of Kadhimiyah, the seat of a major Shi'a shrine, also demonstrates ISIS's continued capability to infiltrate secured areas of Baghdad, despite increased security after the Karrada attack on July 3. ISIS last carried out a successful attack in Kadhimiyah on May 11 at a checkpoint. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) cannot allocate additional manpower to Baghdad without detracting from ongoing operations in northern and western Iraq. Successful ISIS attacks will likely increase in Baghdad and its environs as the ISF contests remaining ISIS terrain in northern and western Iraq. Meanwhile, the Popular Mobilization inserted itself into slowed ISF operations in Qayyarah and Shirqat in order to set conditions for their participation in Mosul. Shi'a militias, including Sadrist Trend affiliated Saraya al-Salaam, Iranian-backed proxy militias, and those affiliated with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) moved forces towards Shirqat starting on July 19. The deployment follows the announcement that 560 U.S. forces will deploy to Qayyarah airbase, which Shi'a militias have condemned. The Popular Mobilization will also attempt to insert itself into northern operations in order to avoid being boxed out of operations in Mosul. The Coalition, Kurdish officials, and the Ninewa provincial government strongly advocated for a lack of militia involvement in northern Iraq out of fear of Shi'a-Sunni sectarian reprisals in terrain already contested between Sunni Arabs and Kurds. So far, operations in northern Iraq have been largely conducted by the ISF, tribal fighters, and Peshmerga with Coalition support. Its presence may also make it difficult to deconflict Coalition and militia operations.
Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi accepted the resignation of seven ministers on July 19 and July 20, suggesting that PM Abadi will seek to restart the Cabinet reshuffle process. The seven ministers, all from the pan-Shi'a National Alliance, include the three Sadrist Trend-affiliated Ahrar ministers and two of the ISCI ministers, who offered their resignations to PM Abadi in March and April as a show of support for the Cabinet reshuffle. PM Abadi left the offers unanswered until now. The timing of PM Abadi's acceptance of the resignations may suggest that he intends to reopen the Cabinet reshuffle process. He may also seek to circumvent attempts by political competitors, primarily the Reform Front, led by former PM Nouri al-Maliki, and Muqtada al-Sadr, to set the terms of the reshuffle that would suit their interests. PM Abadi will need to maneuver the reshuffle process in order to appease reformers such as Sadr while maintaining cohesion with all political parties – namely the Kurds – in the Council of Representatives (CoR). PM Abadi may not survive a second failed Cabinet reshuffle or a re-fracturing of the CoR. Meanwhile, Maliki is working behind the scenes to garner a political support base and convince other political forces to support him as a candidate for the premiership should the reshuffle fail.
Labels: Baghdad, Haidar al-Abadi, Iraq, ISIS, Mosul, Nouri al-Maliki, Sharqat
Failed Coup in Turkey: Implications for Russia-Turkey Relations
By Kathleen Weinberger and Franklin Holcomb
This post represents the second in a series examining the implications of the failed coup in Turkey. President Erdogan has extended the State of Emergency for an additional three months and has begun purging the military as well as other sectors of Turkish society in the aftermath of the coup. This series will examine both the short- and long-term implications of likely actions by Erdogan beginning as they relate to Syria and Russia.
Key Takeaway: The failed coup in Turkey has the potential to decrease U.S. influence in Syria and further divide NATO, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will engage Turkey to cement the divide. Turkey's security crisis may interfere with NATO's ability to maintain stores of nuclear weapons rumored to be hosted at Incirlik air base, which would grant Russia a symbolic and strategic advantage in reducing NATO's deterrent capabilities.
The attempted Turkish military coup on July 15, 2016 and subsequent purge of military and civilian positions by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will play into Russia's hands. Russia aims to reduce U.S. influence in Syria and the broader Middle East and has recently been courting Turkey to drive a wedge between Turkey and its Western allies that will ultimately weaken NATO. After a period of tense relations following the shoot down of a Russian Su-24 jet by Turkish forces in November 2015, Turkey and Russia took steps towards a gradual rapproachment in June 2016. Turkish President Erdogan's policies following the failed coup are likely to isolate Turkey from the EU and NATO allies. Russia will target Turkey during a time of military and diplomatic vulnerability to accelerate this outcome.
Russia positioned itself during and immediately after the coup as a close ally of the Erdogan regime. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated the possibility of providing President Erdogan political asylum during the coup, signaling support for the Turkish President before the U.S., Germany and other NATO members. Russian media has been also framing a narrative that Russian intelligence agencies might have provided advance notice of the coup to Erdogan. These allegations have been denied by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, but were initially disseminated by state media agents such as TASS and Sputnik.[i] In addition, Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) lifted the travel ban on flights to Turkey after the Turkish government guaranteed the safety of Russian citizens on July 22.[ii]
Turkey, in its turn, has continued to mend its relations with Russia. Two Turkish pilots who downed the Russian jet in November 2015 were detained over links to the coup attempt. Turkish officials have also come out with the statement that the pilots had made the decision to shoot down the plane independently. The acceptance of this statement by both the Russian and Turkish sides allows for further reconciliation of this point, as well as the ability to identify a common enemy in 'deviant' Turkish military branches. Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Erdogan will meet during the first week of August and will most likely discuss cooperation in Syria. Russia may press for permission to use the NATO air base at Incirlik, although it is unlikely that Turkey would be allowed to grant Russia access as long as it remains in the alliance. However, this offer was previously alluded to and then retracted by Turkey in early July. Turkey and Russia could foreseeably reach a compromise regarding support for competing groups in Syria, with Russia agreeing to cease its public support for and alleged supply of weapons to Kurds in Turkey and Syria if Turkey uses its influence over select opposition groups to reduce fighting near Russian basing.
Closer cooperation between Russia and Turkey in Syria would mean that the U.S. could no longer utilize Turkey's firm stance on issues such as Assad's removal and support for specific opposition groups to leverage its negotiations with Russia.[iii] The coup also has implications for Turkey's willingness and ability to fulfill its role as a host of a component of NATO's nuclear deterrent, which could be used by Russia to show a further division of the alliance. Turkey is rumored to be one of five NATO countries in Europe that hosts B-61 gravity bombs. These weapons are allegedly stored at Incirlik airbase. NATO operations were temporarily halted at Incirlik following the coup and the base was disconnected from commercial electric power supply until July 22. Turkish authorities arrested the commander of Incirlik airbase, General Bekir Ircan Van, who allegedly took part in the coup. Continued disruption of operations or doubts about the security of the purported weapons stores may limit Turkey's reliability as a host for NATO's nuclear deterrent in Europe. If these weapons were removed, Russia could foreseeably use this as evidence of Turkey's shift towards Russia and away from the NATO alliance.
President Putin may use the narrative of guarding against a similar coup taking place in Russia to justify the intensification of ongoing efforts to attack political opposition and tighten control over Russia's security apparatus. Two pieces of legislation, the "anti-terrorism" bill that was passed in June 2016 and the "foreign agents" law of 2012 provide Putin with substantial powers to track and prosecute potential enemies of his regime. The "anti-terrorism" legislation has not come into effect and only one criminal case has so far been opened under the "foreign agents" law.[iv] It is likely that Putin will begin utilizing these tools to attack political opponents and crack down if protests erupt leading up to the elections in Russia's lower house of parliament on September 18.[v] The failed coup in Turkey will allow President Putin political leverage by which to tighten his control over Russia's security apparatus. Putin has already undertaken measures to secure his position against a coup, including creating the National Guard force, which is commanded by Putin's former bodyguard and responsible to the executive rather than the Ministry of Defense. Turkey's coup will be used to justify further measures, such as wider application of the new surveillance legislation or expansion of executive powers, to secure Putin's position against public resistance or a military uprising.
It is unlikely that Turkey and Russia will pursue a long-term partnership as the two countries hold contradictory strategic interests. However, Russia may be able to use Turkey to accomplish short term goals, such as gaining more influence and international legitimacy for its intervention in Syria and driving a wedge between Turkey and its Western allies. As President Erdogan introduces increasingly authoritarian measures in the wake of the failed coup, EU members and NATO allies may increasingly reject Turkey as a partner. Russia can capitalize on Turkey's isolation by drawing it further from these institutions in order to undermine their unity and reduce their efficacy in countering revanchist Russian policy in Europe and the Middle East.
The following sources link to Russian domains and should be accessed with caution:
[i] "Kremlin Unaware of Reports Claiming Russia Warned Turkey of Coup Attempt." Sputnik, July 21, 2016, http:\\sputniknews.com/world/20160721/1043388268/russia-turkey-coup-warning-denial.html; "Hours Before Military Coup Attempt, Turkey Warned by Russia – Reports." Sputnik, July 21, 2016, http: \\sputniknews.com/russia/20160721/1043373832/russia-warned-turkey-coup-attempt.html; "Russia warned Turkey of imminent army coup, says Iran's FNA," TASS, July 21, 2016, http://tass.ru/en/world/889638
[ii] "Rosaviatsiya removes the ban on passenger flights to Turkey," Gazeta.ru, July 22, 2016, https: \\www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2016/07/22/n_8909015.shtml
[iii] "Turkey No Longer an Obstacle to the US-Russian Cooperation in Syria," Sputnik, July 22, 2016, http: \\sputniknews.com/politics/20160722/1043453586/turkey-russia-us-syria-cooperation.html
[iv]"Russia Opens First Criminal Case Against 'Foreign Agent' NGO," The Moscow Times, June 28, 2016, https: \\themoscowtimes.com/news/russia-opens-first-criminal-case-against-foreign-agent-ngo-53466
[v]"Russia's Justice Ministry Defines 'Political Activity of Foreign Agents," January 22, 2016, https: \\themoscowtimes.com/news/russias-justice-ministry-defines-political-activity-of-foreign-agents-51553
Labels: EU, European Union, NATO, Russia, Syria, Syrian Civil War, turkey, U.S.
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Hull the strawberries by using a straw to push out the stem of each strawberry.
Cut strawberries in half and place on a parchment paper-lined baking sheet and freeze until hardened.
Adding a tablespoon of water to the frozen strawberries helps them blend smoothly. I'd also suggest blending the strawberries and water first, then adding the honey.
It was pretty good. If you add some agave, lemon juice, and a hint of vanilla, it tastes even better!


text:
NASCAR Cup Series News
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Harvick Wins at Atlanta
Speedway Digest Staff
Monday, Feb 26 1262
Race Winner: Kevin Harvick of Stewart-Haas Racing (Ford)
Stage 1 Winner: Kevin Harvick of Stewart-Haas Racing (Ford)
Stage 2 Winner: Brad Keselowski of Team Penske (Ford)
Stage 1 Recap (Laps 1-85):
● Kevin Harvick started third and finished first, collecting 10 bonus points and one playoff point.
● The No. 4 Jimmy John's Ford raced to the lead by lap 20.
● Harvick pitted for four tires and fuel during the competition caution on lap 30.
● The Jimmy John's driver led the remainder of the stage.
● An equipment malfunction on the pit stop following the stage caused a slow stop and forced the team to make a second stop to ensure the tires were installed correctly.
● Earned a playoff point for prevailing as the victor in Stage 1.
Stage 2 Recap (Laps 86-170):
● Started 19th, finished fifth and collected six bonus points.
● Harvick drove back to the lead by lap 125.
● The Jimmy John's team came to pit road under green for four tires and fuel on lap 127 and reclaimed the lead on lap 132.
● The team came to pit road for four tires and fuel on lap 160 and came out in the second position.
● Harvick fell from second to fifth on the lap-162 restart.
Final Stage Recap (Laps 171-325):
● Started fourth, finished first.
● Harvick pitted on lap 212 from second place for four tires and fuel, but a fast racecar enabled the driver of the No. 4 Jimmy John's Ford Fusion to take the lead on lap 226.
● Harvick made a green-flag pit stop on lap 252 for four tires and fuel.
● Once green-flag stops cycled through, Harvick was back in the lead by lap 266.
● After leading for several circuits around the 1.54-mile oval, Harvick gave up a 12.5-second lead to make yet another green-flag pit stop for four tires and fuel on lap 287. He reassumed the lead on lap 290.
● A caution on lap 298 allowed Harvick to pit on lap 300 for four tires and fuel. He won the race off pit road and maintained the lead to the end, winning the Folds of Honor 500.
● Harvick's victory in the Folds of Honor 500 marked the 44th overall win for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR). It was the organization's 40th points-paying Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series win and its second at Atlanta. Tony Stewart won at Atlanta on Sept. 5, 2010.
● This was SHR's fourth NASCAR Cup Series victory with Ford. The team won its first race with Ford when Kurt Busch captured the 2017 Daytona 500.
● This was Harvick's first NASCAR Cup Series win of 2018, his second at Atlanta and the 38th of his career. It was his 15th NASCAR Cup Series victory since joining SHR in 2014.
● Harvick's margin of victory over second-place Brad Keselowski was 2.69 seconds.
● This was Harvick's second win, seventh top-five and 13th top-10 finish in 28 career NASCAR Cup Series starts at Atlanta. Harvick's previous win at Atlanta was on March 11, 2001 – his first-ever win in the series. He scored the victory on what was just his third career start in the NASCAR Cup Series.
● With the win Harvick earned five playoff points. He finished first in Stage 1 to earn 10 bonus points and one playoff point. He finished fifth in Stage 2 to earn an additional six bonus points.
● Harvick led eight times for a race-high 181 laps to bring his laps-led total at Atlanta to 1,152.
● There were five caution periods for a total of 28 laps.
● Thirteen of the 36 drivers in the Folds of Honor 500 finished on the lead lap.
Kevin Harvick, driver of the No. 4 Jimmy John's Ford Fusion for Stewart-Haas Racing:
"I'm just so proud of everybody on our team. I had the first win in my career here, and to be able to pay tribute to Dale (Earnhardt) was pretty cool. I've been waiting a long time to do that. We've had so many days where we could do that here, but I just want to thank everybody from Stewart-Haas Racing, Jimmy John's, Busch, Ford, Mobil 1, Outback, Hunt Brothers, Morton Buildings, Textron Off Road, Liftmaster – everybody who puts this car on the racetrack. For five years it's been so fast at this particular racetrack and a lot of other ones. I love racing here, and it's good to be back in victory lane finally. It took a while."
The next event on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Las Vegas 400 on Sunday, March 4 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The race starts at 3:30 p.m. EST with live coverage provided by FOX TV, PRN and SiriusXM Radio channel 90.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Time to sizzle down for what's hot this year. Let's dive straight into our top fashion color trend we'll be looking out for in the coming months.
The killer color trend making a stunning appearance this year, sunshine yellow!
Just got the terry one! Thanks!


Officials finally released MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019, Click on the proper below mentioned link down mentioned on this Page and download pdf MSBTE Reassessment Form Summer 2019. Get all important details regarding MSBTE Revaluation Form 2019 here on this Page.
If you are not satisfied with your marks which you have get in the Summer Results. This is golden Opportunity for candidates to apply for Rechecking/ Reassessment Summer 2019 Application Form. Application forms link are live online. Apply for Rechecking/ Reassessment by visiting official web Page (Direct Link below on this Page).
Students are requested to keep wait for officials to release online Application of MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019. All major and important updates related to MSBTE Rechecking Application Form Summer 2019-20 will be update here on this Page as soon as Possible as per official updates.
The Maharashtra State Board of Technical Education or MSBTE has successfully declared the Results of Exams 2019. These Exams were held on pre located exam centers in Maharashtra State.
Those candidates who all faced Diploma of Polytechnic Courses Exams conducted by MSBTE can easily check out the MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019 from here. The Revaluation Forms are declared for those candidates who have got their Marks but not happy with that. Check main instructions of MSBTE Reassessment Summer 2019 from this page.
The MSBTE Summer Exams were conducted April to May 2019 in large numbers of Exam Centers in Maharashtra State Various Exam Centers. Amazing numbers of candidates showed their availability in these Exams.
Every year officials conducts polytechnic Exams between large numbers of Exam Centers. Good news for all candidates is that MSBTE Summer Exam Score cards 2019 were announced on Dec 2019 by officials.
Right after the official announcement of Summer Exam Results, candidates applied for MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019. Within 20 days of Application, MSBTE will declare the Latest Mark Sheet of all the candidates.
With the MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019, candidate's doubts will be cleared easily. We want all of you to download MSBTE Polytechnic Exam Revaluation Results 2019.
This is to inform all applicants that your Exam latest marks will be available after the Revaluation Results. All you need to download MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019 through PDF format from the official website. If you are not downloading it then you will be in regretting all the time. If you want our guidance, then you may easily ask any query from the below comment box. We are going to share all main things from below. You should also check for the basic information of MSBTE from below.
महाराष्ट्र राज्य तांत्रिक शैक्षणिक संस्थेने ऑनलाइन एमएसबीटीई फेरहेकिंग फॉर्म ग्रीष्मकालीन 2019 चे अर्ज ऑनलाइन उपलब्ध केले आहेत. msbte.org.in विद्यार्थी ऑनलाइन उपलब्ध MSBTE पुनर्मूल्यांकन फॉर्म ग्रीष्मकालीन 2019 भरू शकतात. जर आपल्याकडे कोणताही प्रश्न असेल तर या पृष्ठावर खालील टिप्पणी बॉक्सवर खाली टिप्पणी द्या.
The MSBTE is also known as Maharashtra Board of Technical Education is the main Board of this state which handles polytechnic and Diploma Exams of Maharashtra State. This Board was founded by the State Government in the year of 1963. There are large numbers of institutions which are affiliated to the Maharashtra Board of Technical Education in Maharashtra State. The Head quarter of this board is located in Mumbai.
Great news of today is that applicants may easily download MSBTE Revaluation form of Summer Exams 2019. This page is giving you guys the main link to download MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019.
The Application forms are available on below of this page. You will get all latest news of these Exams from here. We are suggesting all of you to stay connected to us and get to know more instructions. Best of luck to all of you for the MSBTE Summer Revaluation Procedure 2019.
Hello dear ones, If you have any main question related to MSBTE Revaluation Procedure 2019-20, feel free to leave comment below on the comment Section. Officials will give you a quick reply on your query as soon as Possible.
Follow the link mentioned down here and fill official MSBTE Rechecking Form Summer 2019; If you left behind with any of main query regarding MSBTE Reassessment Form Summer 2019 feel free to drop comment down here on the comment Section.
Revaluation result will release by the Board within 30-40 days after revaluation process started.
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Plz tell me the date for revaluation form….
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text:
Donnay Sports is a sports equipment brand currently owned by Frasers Group. The company was founded in 1910 by Emile Donnay and was based in Couvin, Belgium. Donnay manufactured wooden tennis rackets from 1934, and by the 1970s was the largest manufacturer of tennis rackets in the world. However, the company failed to adapt to the new market for graphite rackets, and entered administration in 1988. After a succession of owners, the brand was eventually sold to Sports Direct International, who continue to license the use of the brand worldwide.

Nowadays Donnay commercialises tennis rackets, strings and bags. Donnay rackets were used professionally in Europe by Björn Borg from 1975 until his retirement in 1983. Other professionals included Andre Agassi, Rod Laver and Greg Rusedski.

History
The company was founded in 1910 by Emile Donnay (1885–1972) as a wooden tool handle manufacturing co-operative with six employees. Emile Donnay had little education and a modest background. The company began to diversify into other wooden products, including a bow for archers, which continues to be reflected in the Donnay bow-shaped logo. In 1924 Donnay built premises in Couvin.

The company manufactured its first tennis rackets in 1934. In the early 1950s the company won a valuable contract to produce tennis rackets for Wilson.

By 1969 Donnay was the world's largest manufacturer of tennis rackets. By the early 1970s, Donnay was producing 2 million rackets a year, 1.3 million of which were shipped to Wilson for distribution. Production suffered in 1973, when Wilson relocated its tennis racket production to Taiwan.

In 1981 Donnay produced 1.8 million rackets, almost all made from ash. The company failed to adapt to the changing market for the new lightweight graphite rackets. The company produced only 3,000 graphite rackets in 1980, instead concentrating on wood and aluminium rackets. The company continued to manufacture wooden rackets until 1984, by which time they were obsolete.

Buoyed by the success of signing up Björn Borg as a Donnay user, the company employed 600 people and manufactured around 1.5 million tennis rackets a year. In 1981 Donnay reported a turnover of 2.1 billion Belgian francs. Donnay's fortunes began to fade when Borg retired in 1983. Its success had been too closely aligned with Borg's success, and the company lost money for four years before entering administration in 1988 after amassing debts of $35 million. The company had apparently lacked the negotiation skills to attract another player of Borg's standing as a figurehead.

The Donnay family still controlled 55 percent of the company when it went bankrupt in 1988. The Walloon and Belgian governments held the remaining shares. The company was acquired by a group of investors, led by Bernard Tapie with a 51 percent stake, the Walloon government with 29 percent and Albert Frere with 20 percent. In 1991 Tapie sold his 58 percent stake in the company to the Walloon government for $16.2 million in order to finance the acquisition of Adidas shares. The government sold the factory to an Italian sports equipment manufacturer, Carbon Valley, and retained the brand rights. In December 1992 the Walloon government took ownership of the company in order to prevent it from entering administration again.

In 1996, Sports Direct International acquired the worldwide rights to the Donnay brand from the Walloon government for $3.9 million. At the time of the acquisition, production was based in Portugal, while 23 people remained employed at a distribution centre in Couvin. SportsDirect sells Donnay products as an in house brand and licences its production of Donnay branded products overseas. SportsDirect also separately licenses the brand to independent manufacturers and sellers of Donnay branded products, including tennis racquet production in the United States.

Sponsorships
Initially, Donnay sponsored Belgian tennis players, and due to the amateur nature of the sport at the time, was only allowed to provide rackets and balls, and a small fee. Its first foreign sponsorship was with the French tennis player Yvon Petra. Rod Laver, Margaret Court and Cliff Drysdale all played with Donnay rackets.

Donnay sponsored Björn Borg from 1975 to 1983, providing his racket. When Borg renewed the contract in 1979, it was worth $600,000 a year, plus royalties from Borg branded Donnay rackets.

Andre Agassi was signed to the Donnay brand between 1989 and 1992 for around $1 million a year. Henri Leconte and Greg Rusedski also used Donnay rackets.

Further reading
 Michel Guilluy and Louis Maraite: Donnay, la légende d'une marque de tennis 1910 - 2013 (2013)

References

External links

Sporting goods brands
Belgian brands
Sporting goods manufacturers of Belgium
Manufacturing companies established in 1910
Tennis equipment manufacturers
Sportswear brands
1910 establishments in Belgium
Sports Direct

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


…distributional analysis is helpful. It helps inform the debate, and … shows how money is allocated by Government around the different income quintiles of society.
HM Treasury's draft results have now been published. They show that low income households suffered the smallest pre-tax fall in income through the recession.
That is not entirely representative of low-income households' experience because they were disproportionately exposed to unemployment, but it is interesting to see that upper-middle-income households saw the greatest fall in wages during the recession.
The impact of changes to taxes and welfare payments over the last Parliament has attempted to reverse those costs by penalising those on low incomes with sharp cuts to benefit rates. However, reductions in direct taxation have largely benefited middle-income households.
The majority of the tax burden has fallen on the top decile of income earners.
Director's Law held over this Parliament.
The Treasury will not be producing analysis of this kind for future fiscal events.


The winds have shifted a bit from yesterday so I call for the west site today. We have 2 couples today, a Birthday gal and an Anniversary couple. The "gang" gets the balloon out, the air started in then Cecil adds the heat for us. I call for the passengers to come on board and we are off the lot and on our way to the east, northeast. It's over some small farm patches then on toward the ponds at the Cemex operation. Past the ponds we are in the Marion berry fields for a bit then up over the tree line and on the river. We drift along the river a bit and get a nice reflection shot off the water. We pass Sunset Park then climb over the trees into the Keizer area. We are closing in on one of my favorite landing spots at the daycare center. Once we cross over River Road I'll have a shot at the field behind the house. Once I get a view of the field I see that it has been plowed up so the gang will have to catch us then tow us to the east end for the lay down and pack up. The passengers do the "sit" and we load up and head back for the picnic.


If Ted Stout had continued to follow the advice of his doctor, he might not be alive today. The prescribed opioids reduced the physical pain he suffered from Postherpetic Neuralgia -- until they made him much sicker. Then he took matters into his own hands.
Well, I wasn't fine after that, and it just lingered. I went back and he said,"Well, we've come to the conclusion that you have post herpetic neuralgia." The nerve was damaged and would never fix, that the only thing to do at this point was pain control.
Ultimately I was on something called morphine sulfate ER, and it was a time-release morphine. I came to find out that the stronger medications would take the pain down a little bit. For a couple of hours, it was like oh, whew, relief. And then after about two hours, it started to creep back in. And I kind of would joke that the pain was made at me because I was trying to get rid of it and it was coming back with a vengeance.
They assured me that they did. They said part of you know, getting rid of this addiction was having a very comfortable bed and comfortable surroundings and all these things. OK, great. So I show up there and it's-- it might as well have been a mattress off of a gurney. It was rubber, or plastic, with an old sheet on it. And I get that that's how it should be, because when you start getting off of these drugs and it's just nasty, nasty, nasty. And there were times that I couldn't even make it to the bathroom in time. I couldn't do it and I was lying there in my filth.
One of the nurses I called Nurse Ratched. She just kind of told me I was being a baby, and that if I left this facility she would call the sate police because they give – they give you something, I don't know what it is, to try to help you get off this stuff and that that impairs me. And if I get in my car to drive, she will have me arrested. We're in the parking lot, yelling at each other. I mean it was – it was awful. I've never been treated that way in my life. And I was paying for this, you know.
The fifth day I was there, the head doctor of the whole place called me into his office --beautiful, lavish office -- sat me down, and I'm thinking Great, now I'm going to get the plan. And the plan was to tell me that they had no plan. They talked about it. They monitored me, did some more research into it and found out that they had no plan for me. But I was welcome to stick around for 30 days if I'd like.
I felt betrayed. They told me they had something. I put up with crap. I put up with Nurse Ratched. I put up with being an inmate. And now they're telling me, Oops, I guess we should have looked into it a little more.
I did have Plan B. There is a place in UNC – UNC Chapel Hill Healthcare-- and they have a very well recognized trigeminal neuralgia program there. And, two and a half hours I talked to these people. I felt listened to for the very first time. It was like Hallelujah! They go to the root of the problem. They don't mask it. They'll be no drugs given. They told me to try Tylenol and ice. What they did was they gave my body a chance to get strong and knock this thing out.
He suggested that I go see a chiropractor every week and get a massage every month. Change my diet – organic everything. Don't drink coffee. Don't drink alcohol. Drink a lot of water. He said fat will help repair the nerve damage. You need good fats like avocado fats to heal your nerve. He said your body wants to be good. What you put into it, what you put on it, is going to affect everything, and if you are predisposed to this condition, every bad thing you do is going to cause you a problem. Every good thing you do will strengthen your body and it will make things so much easier for you, you will be able to do this without drugs.
I believe that the nerve is mostly fixed. It took about a year and half for me to get totally good. And I know that opiates will make it flare up again. And I know that some will say,Wow, that's great, but I could never do that. I know people who've done it and they are happier people for it. Do they still have pain? They do, a little bit. But are they better off for it? Yeah, they are better off without the opiates. Opiates should be a temporary thing, not for chronic pain. It will kill you. Or you might kill yourself. I came close because it just seemed like there was no way out of this.
I'm a very private person but if my story can help one person realize the dangers of extended opiate use, it's well worth being uncomfortable with my story being out there in this world. If you hear this, know that you can do this. If I can do it, you can do it. And please try. Give it at least a try. You won't be sorry.
I'm Ted Stout and this is my story.


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Established in 1915 by Dr. Carter G. Woodson, the father of Black History, we are the Founders of Black History Month and carry forth the work of our founder. We continue his legacy of speaking a fundamental truth to the world--that Africans and peoples of African descent are makers of history and co-workers in what W. E. B. Du Bois called, "The Kingdom of Culture." ASALH's mission is to create and disseminate knowledge about Black History, to be, in short, the nexus between the Ivory Tower and the global public. We labor in the service of Black folks and all humanity.
Would you recommend Association for the Study of African American Life and History - ASALH?


This article is for Family Travelers to Tokyo, especially with small children with a stroller.
Tokyo's Public Transportation is one of the best in the world – it's clean, SUPER punctual, and it takes you anywhere you want.
Taking trains in Tokyo can be one of the most complicated challenge if you are not used to it.
now I have a small child – so I know this topic very well!
I am sharing some tips and advice here.
==> Tokyo Apartments to Stay!
4. Know Your Stations – Some have only stairs! Grr!
Pleeeeeeease from my bottom of my heart, avoid rush hours.
You probably have seen this kind of pictures, that station staff is pushing passengers in to a car. I think those was back in 80s…. but you still see it sometimes. People are so stressed, that nobody is willing to give you a hand.
People will give you an angry look if you have to get in to a super crowded car with a stroller. No space. ( that case you have to fold a stroller )RUSH HOURS IS LIKE A WAR in Tokyo.
If you have to travel during the rush hour, take a taxi instead, or a hired car. Or change the plan.
You don't want to travel during the rush hour!!!!
Those are the times you want to stay away from trains.
When I stay in Tokyo with my son, I never, never, take trains during the rush hour.
I make plans after rush hours.
Surprisingly (?) Tokyo trains don't run 24 hours. Its last train is usually around 12-1am and opens again around 5am. So trains get super crowded like rush hour when it's towards the end of the schedule, people who are having drinks or meals are trying to catch last train to go home.
I don't think you will be out there that late when traveling with kids, but just to let you know.
This picture was taken around 5pm on Weekend, when it wasn't too crowded. yet.
So if rush hours is bad – when is good time to travel?
This is Tokyo's off-peak time hours.
Weekdays during 10am – 3~4pm.
Weekends during 8am – 4pm.
This pic was taken at Chuo-line, one of the most busy train lines in Tokyo.
but this is why, they can be suuuuuper busy and crowded!
Watch out for Shinjuku Station especially. Even Japanese people get lost at Shinjuku station and it's nickname is "Shinjuku Dungeon", for its complication and size.
Study Shinjuku station very well if you have to use it! I'm Japanese, from Tokyo, but still I got lost there last time. Confusing example : See the pic above… in order to leave the station, I had to go through 2 different train platforms. Hard to explain… Don't hesitate to ask for a help at Train Staff. They will help you with English.
Tokyo metro / train had opened about 130 years ago, (Yamanote Line, 1885).
Back then they weren't thoughtful for handicapped or baby strollers.
If you have to use those statins and need a help, don't hesitate to ask station staff. They will help you carry a stroller.
Subway is a bit hard. Because of the limited space, it has been difficult to renovate subway stations to install elevators and slopes instead of stairs.
Also kids will enjoy views of outside more on regular trains. So, I recommend try to use regular ones than Subways.
but if you are a just a tourist it won't make a huge difference, I don't think.
You may be installed Train Map App and think you will be okay….but wrong!!!
Be sure to give enough time to go from A-B if you use trains.
Never hurry. If a train looks crowded, wait for another one. Give a good amount time to travel.
It's not because it'd dangerous.
It's because you will need an extra hand.
Don't go alone. Go with someone.
You will probably need en extra hand if you're taking a train. There may be small steps, or you have too many bags to carry, I don't know, something you wouldn't expect and you will wish you had a partner who can assist you.
I'd try to minimize the amount of usage of trains in general. Pick spots that you definitely want to go, and stay near around that area.
But really, you are fine as long as you avoid rush hours.
Enjoy world's most punctual, best transportation!
Feel free to ask me questions with Tokyo Travel, if you have any!
You can read more Tokyo Related Topics here!


text:
Journal of Women Health Diet
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The journal includes sections dedicated to adolescent health, female fertility and midwifery and all articles are open access. Reproductive Health has a particular interest on the impact changes in reproductive health have globally, and therefore encourages submissions from researchers based in low- and middle-income countries.Journal of Women's Health Care discusses the latest research innovations and important developments in this field. Women's Health Journal with a decent impact factor offers Open Access option to meet the Food & Nutrition Journals.Find Read headlines and watch videos on medicine, mental illness, and more. Women's Health. Breast implants linked.Women have unique health issues. And some of the health issues that affect both men and women can affect women differently. Unique issues include pregnancy, menopause, and conditions of the female organs.Women can have a healthy pregnancy by getting early and regular prenatal care.They should also get recommended breast cancer, cervical cancer, and bone density screenings.Oct 18, 2018 The food and drink choices you make affect your health. Choosing healthy foods and drinks can help women prevent or manage many health .Towards a healthy diet: from nutrition recommendations to dietary advice. Agneta Andersson 1 and Susanne Bryngelsson 2 Analysis of data collected from the Iowa Women's Health Study indicates that high intake of protein from red meat and dairy products is associated with an increased risk of CHD 23. The exact mechanism is not known.Mursu J, Steffen LM, Meyer KA, Duprez D, Jacobs DR Jr. Diet quality indexes and mortality in postmenopausal women: the Iowa Women's Health Study. Am J Clin Nutr 2013 ; 98 :444- 53 Yu D, Zhang X, Xiang YB, et al. Adherence to dietary guidelines and mortality: a report from prospective cohort studies of 134,000 Chinese adults in urban Shanghai.Diet and Nutrition Tips for Women Eating Right to Look and Feel Your Best at Every Stage of Life Trying to balance the demands of family and work or school—and coping with media pressure to look and eat a certain way—can make it difficult for any woman to maintain a healthy.Public Health is an international, multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal. It publishes original papers, reviews and short reports on all aspects of the science, philosophy, and practice of public health. It is aimed at all public health practitioners and researchers and those who manage and deliver public health services and systems. It will also be of interest to anyone involved.
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Women in the latest study were between 50 and 79 when they first enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative trial between 1993 and 1998. nearly two-thirds of the women consumed diet sodas.Journal of Sport and Health Science (JSHS), launched in May 2012, is a peer-reviewed scholarly journal dedicated to the advancement of sport/exercise/health sciences.By publishing original research, scholarly reviews, opinion papers, and research highlights/commentaries, JSHS aims to build a communication platform for international researchers to effectively share scholarly achievements.The Effects of Healthy Diet in Pregnancy. Fateme Davari Tanha, M.D., 1 Mona It should be pointed out that there is no study in Iran with expand investigation of pregnant women health behavior in all 3 fields: smoking, diet physical activity examining the numerous predicators related to their behavior therefore, in this study.Men's Health is the brand men live by for fitness, nutrition, health, sex, style, grooming, tech, weight.Bullet Journal Weight Loss Tracker Bullet Journal Exercise Tracker Bullet Journal Workout Bullet Journal Health Weight Loss Journal Goal Journal Diet Journal Fitness Journal Journal Layout Forward I can't believe that I've found the perfect list of bullet journal ideas that'll help me keep track of my weight, diet, and exercise.The Health Journal contains a variety of content ranging from human interest stories to expert contributions by qualified health care professionals. Regular departments include Advances in Medicine, Fitness, Food and Nutrition, Men and Women's health, Parenting, Mental Health.J. H. Hankin is a nutrition researcher and professor of public health with the Epidemiology Program of the Cancer Research Center of Hawaii, University.Health is a resource for everyday life, not the objective of living; it is a positive concept, emphasizing social and personal resources, as well as physical capacities". Thus, health referred to the ability to maintain homeostasis and recover from insults.The Center is an educational entity that exists to provide teen girls and young women with carefully researched health information, health education programs, and conferences. All information is for educational purposes only. For specific medical advice, diagnoses, and treatment, consult your health care provider.
Journal of Women's Health is the primary source of information for meeting the Nutrition; Sex-Based Biology; Complementary Medicine; Sports Medicine .Learn about yoga poses and holistic methods to benefit and balance women's health and lifestyles. From fertility to breast cancer to positive body image, yoga benefits women's health. Your Diet and Hormones Are More Connected Than You Think—Here's How to Balance Them Naturally with Food Many women find that their once fast-paced.The Mediterranean diet was ranked the best diet for 2019 by the U.S. News World Report. Here are its major science-backed health benefits. Mediterranean diet has been shown to decrease the risk of developing it in both short- and long-term studies in men and women.The facts about Thin From Within!!! women's health issues journal,Read Brad Pilon's Thin From Within eBook Review, should you buy it? Will Thin From Within System work for you? Is it a scam? The facts about Thin From Within!!!. Start Today. women's health issues journal.Scientific Journal of Women's Health Menopause; Womens diet and nutrition; Breast Health .Everyday Health Diet Nutrition. All Diet and Nutrition Articles. Maintaining a healthy weight is vital for women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and prediabetes.4 Types of Foods that Boost Your Memory (Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics) Deciphering Media Stories on Diet: Nutrition in the News (Harvard School of Public Health) Diet Choices to Prevent Cancer (American Academy of Family Physicians) Also in Spanish.In fact, women between ages 50 and 79 are 23 percent more likely to have a stroke if they drink diet soft drinks than if they don't, according to a study published in the journal Stroke.Delivering cutting-edge clinical advances in diagnostic procedures, therapeutic protocols for the management of diseases, and innovative research.
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Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Changes in Diet and Lifestyle and Long-Term Weight Gain in Women and Men Office on Smoking and Health National Center for Chronic.Low carbohydrate-high protein diet and mortality in a cohort of Swedish women. J Intern Med. 2007; 261 : 366-374 View in Article.Diet drinks may be associated with strokes among post-menopausal women Stroke Journal Report. Compared with women who consumed diet drinks less than once a week or not at all, women who consumed two or more artificially sweetened beverages per day were: participating in the Women's Health Initiative study that tracked health outcomes.Women's Health; Multimedia. Flipbooks; Journal Photo Contest Gallery ; Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Online offers complete coverage of the Journal, with full-text articles starting from 1993 to the present. Access to the full-text is available to Academy members and personal subscribers. The Journal is the premier.Share With Women is a series of patient information handouts from the Journal of Midwifery & Women's Health and can be copied and distributed for .Heart Health for Women. DHHS. Food and Drug Administration. You may think heart disease only affects men. This is not true. Heart disease is the leading cause of death for women. FDA has tips to help you make good decisions about your heart health.Diet drinks may be associated with strokes among post-menopausal women Stroke Journal Report. American Heart Association.The Journal of Womens Health, Issues and Care is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes cutting-edge academic research of seminal importance in the scientific field. Women's diet and nutrition. The effects of a women's diet on her children start long before she becomes pregnant.A new article in ACSM's Health Fitness Journal has cleared up misinformation about trending diets and highlighted the best diet for reducing stomach fat. Women In Sport Podcasts Motoring Video News Health Fitness.
Latest Health news, comment and analysis from the Guardian, the world's leading liberal voice. Skip to main content. The Guardian - Back to home women's mental health services in Manchester.Discover The Real Truth in My Thin From Within System Book.Get Woman's Best Weight Loss women's health journal,Thin from Within Review – Is It For You? Millions of American struggle with their weight every.Women's Health. Feature Stories. Boost Your Chances of Pregnancy: 10 conception tips. A Pregnant Woman's Daily Diet. By Elizabeth Somer, MA, RD. From the WebMD Archives.WebMD Health Experts and Community WebMD Home Diet Weight Use this printable Food Fitness Journal or check out the WebMD Food Fitness Planner for personalized healthy weight.Diet-related factors are thought to account for about 30% of cancers in developed countries. Most studies of diet and healthcare have focused on the role of single nutrients, foods, or food groups in disease prevention or promotion.Health benefits of a vegetarian diet. Volume 58, Issue 2; Timothy J. Key (a1) a collaborative analysis of 8300 deaths among 76,000 men and women in five prospective studies. Public Health Nutrition 1, 33 American Journal of Public Health.Women's Health is your go-to destination for new workouts, legit nutrition advice and weight loss tips, the latest health news, healthy recipes.Diet quality score is a predictor of type 2 diabetes risk in women: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health - Volume 112 Issue 6 - Amani Alhazmi, Elizabeth Stojanovski, Mark McEvoy, Wendy Brown, Manohar.ACSM's Health Fitness Journal. 23(1):22-30, January/February 2019. Abstract. Favorites; PDF. Get Content Permissions CPR/AED — Just Certified or Truly Qualified TARGETING ABDOMINAL OBESITY THROUGH THE DIET: What Does the Evidence Say? View All. Quick Poll How many years of experience do you have in the health/fitness industry?.
This 12-month journal includes health and fitness logs, a hydration tracker, and a meal log. Diet, And More. Advertisement - Continue Reading Below A Part of Hearst Digital Media Women's.Atlanta from from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. FORECAST.The Journal of Midwifery Women's Health (JMWH) is the official journal of the American College of Nurse-Midwives.This peer-reviewed journal presents new research and current knowledge across a broad range of clinical and interdisciplinary topics including maternity care, gynecology, primary care for women and newborns, public health, health care policy, and global health.Curbing the twin epidemics of obesity and diabetes calls for not only changes in diet and lifestyle at individual levels but also changes in policy, physical and social environment, and cultural norms. Journal of Women's Health, Vol. 14, No. 6. Extracellular Cyclic AMP-Adenosine Pathway in Isolated Adipocytes and Adipose Tissue. 6 September.Dec 27, 2018 If the idea of keeping a journal brings you back to your teen years, stop right there. Journals, specifically fitness journals, can actually.Discover The Real Truth in My Thin From Within System Book.Get Woman's Best Weight Loss women's health journal,Warning !! Don't Buy Thin From Within System By Braid Pilon until not Reading my Thin From Within Review. Start Today. women's health journal.Putting female mosquitoes on human diet drugs could reduce spread of disease Date: In a study publishing February 7 in the journal Cell, researchers report that they have identified drugs.The Women's Magazine Diet Journal of Magazine New Media Research 3 Vol. 17, No. 1 • Summer 2016 Our research investigates representations of health in women's print magazines, adding to a small number of contemporary studies on nutrition and fitness content in legacy media.Women's health and fitness. Information on women's health issues such as sexual health, birth control, pregnancy and healthy aging. 2019 — Drinking bone broth is a recent.
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The global lab-on-a-chip (LoC) market to experience a staggering growth with a CAGR of 10% during the forecast period (2018-2023), in an extensive report reveals Market Research Future (MRFR). Lab-on-a-chip brings in diverse laboratory processes on a minimally sized integrated circuit and eases the sample handling process and within a flicker delivers results with excellent efficiency.
Quick sampling and precise results, within a very short span of time, can solve problems such as drug wastage, and drug resistance. This also enables patients to have a timely diagnosis and ensures enough time to start the necessary medical procedures. LoC offers optimization of the process and gains traction in the process enough to enjoy accolades from the various corners of the medical sector.
LoC is experiencing popularity in diagnosing various infections and chronic diseases along with multiple tests of diverse disciplines such as Botany. Factors that are airing the demand for LoC are its portability, automated sample handling, and easy configurability. Also, the microfluidic LoC has the potential to revolutionize the biomedical field.
However, a few factors can impede the market growth such as high initial cost and lack of awareness in countries with people mostly belonging to the middle-income group. But LoC is slowly becoming an integral part of the diagnosing procedure which can marshal the market to overcome such irritants.
The competitive market is banking much on research & developments and merger & acquisitions. For instance, Becton-Dickinson and Company have recently acquired C. R. Bard to expand their portfolio. Agilent Technologies has also acquired Advanced Analytical Technologies, Inc. in a bid to explore much of electrophoresis space.
Key companies that are playing contributing the most in the market are Becton-Dickinson and Company, Agilent Technologies, Inc., Danaher Corporation, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Abbott Laboratories, Hoffmann-La Roche AG, PerkinElmer, Inc., IDEX Corporation, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc., Cepheid Inc., Biacore AB, and others.
The global LoC device market can be segmented by product, technology, application, and end-user.
Product-wise, the market includes instruments, reagents & consumables, software, and others. Researchers from Biozentrum of the University of Basel and Max Planck Institute in Dresden have set up a LoC along with automatic analysis software that can study single cell responses.
Based on application, the market comprises genomics, proteomics, the point of care diagnostics, drug discovery and others. LoC has revamped genomic field of study by taking down the time of detection by a considerable margin. Researchers from Griffith University's Queensland Micro and Nanotechnology Centre have discovered new ways to screen drugs by using LoC that would reduce the drug testing time considerably.
By end-user, the market consists, hospitals and clinics, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies, forensic laboratories, diagnostics centers, and academic & research institutes.
A Scotland based company uFraction8 Ltd. has recently come up with a microfluidic-based filtration system which is an essential part in remodeling the LoCs. Other innovations are also startling and can revolutionize the segment by taking the practice some light years ahead. Researchers from the Brigham Young University have now developed a technology that can 3D print LoC.
Region-wise the market covers the Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific (APAC), and the Middle East & Africa (MEA).
The Americas are leading the market owing to their huge expenditure in molecular biology and genetic engineering to counter infectious diseases. Genomic and proteomic researches are also spurring the demand for such technology and accordingly LoC is getting significant funds from various organizations. Its precision in diagnosis and ability to handle multiple samples simultaneously are also proving effective for chronic disease treatment.
Europe is the second largest market due to its flourishing medical device market and favorable government initiatives that are funding researches. Growing per-capita income of individuals is also proving to be a significant factor.
The APAC is expected to be the fastest growing region as it has a huge patient pool suffering from diverse kind of chronic and infectious diseases. Also, the region is adopting the latest technologies. Governments are promoting favorable market conditions due to which a lot of international players are setting up their factories and laboratories in this region.
The MEA is expected to register a meager market share as the region lacks awareness and proper facilities. The United Arab Emirates holds the largest market share as it has adequate healthcare facilities and the economic status of the citizens.


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Q: xgboost : TypeError: predict() got an unexpected keyword argument 'pred_contribs' I trained a model using xgboost v0.90 to be compatible with AWS SageMaker ML Engine. I am doing the usual encoding and hyper-parameter tuning. Some code below:
import pandas as pd
import pickle
from xgboost import XGBRegressor
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, GridSearchCV, RandomizedSearchCV
from sklearn.compose import ColumnTransformer
from sklearn.preprocessing import OneHotEncoder

# split df into train and test
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(df.iloc[:,0:21], df.iloc[:,-1], test_size=0.1)

X_train.shape
(1000,21)

# Encode categorical variables
cat_vars = ['cat1','cat2','cat3']
cat_transform = ColumnTransformer([('cat', OneHotEncoder(handle_unknown='ignore'), cat_vars)], remainder='passthrough')

encoder = cat_transform.fit(X_train)
X_train = encoder.transform(X_train)
X_test = encoder.transform(X_test)

X_train.shape
(1000,420)

# Define a xgboost regression model
model = XGBRegressor()

# Do hyper-parameter tuning
.....

# Fit model
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Forecast on test data
y_pred = model.predict(X_test, pred_contribs=True)
y_pred

I have installed SHAP and based on the documentation [1], .predict() takes pred_contribs argument. Traceback:
    TypeError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-1119-37e607e853fd> in <module>
      1 # Forecast on test data
----> 2 y_pred = model.predict(X_test, pred_contribs=True)
      3 y_pred

TypeError: predict() got an unexpected keyword argument 'pred_contribs'

[1]https://shap.readthedocs.io/en/latest/example_notebooks/tabular_examples/tree_based_models/Python%20Version%20of%20Tree%20SHAP.html?highlight=pred_contribs
[2]https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/python/python_api.html#xgboost.Booster.predict

A: XGBRegressor's predict does not have pred_contribs parameter, it only has these parameters:
predict(self, X, output_margin=False, ntree_limit=None,
        validate_features=True, base_margin=None, iteration_range=None)

The parameter pred_contribs, that you are talking about is in  xgboost.Booster.predict(), which is a low level XGBoost, it has these parameter:
predict(self, data: xgboost.core.DMatrix, output_margin: bool = False,
        ntree_limit: int = 0, pred_leaf: bool = False, pred_contribs: bool = False,
        approx_contribs: bool = False, pred_interactions: bool = False,
        validate_features: bool = True, training: bool = False,
        iteration_range: Tuple[int, int] = (0, 0), strict_shape: bool = False)

So you have to use that:
data =  xgboost.DMatrix(X, label = y)
model = xgboost.train({"learning_rate": 0.01, "max_depth": 4}, data)
model.predict(data, pred_contribs = True)

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