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The Digital Supply Chain podcast
End to end visibility at the Coca Cola Company - a chat with Jeff Markey
October 12, 2020 Tom Raftery / Jeff Markey Season 1 Episode 75
Oct 12, 2020 Season 1 Episode 75
Tom Raftery / Jeff Markey
I came across the Coca Cola Company's VP Supply Chain, Jeff Markey at one of our customer council meetings where he gave an excellent presentation on what he called their Project Contour - a project to get total end-to-end visibility throughout their supply chain.
I reached out to Jeff subsequently to ask if he'd be willing to share that info with the Digital Supply Chain podcast audience, and he said he'd be delighted to, and so here we are!
I think you can tell we both had an excellent time putting this podcast together - I loved Jeff's expression "the speed of need". Enjoy.
I really enjoyed putting this podcast together, I hope you enjoy listening to it. If you have any comments/suggestions or questions for the podcast - feel free to leave me a voice message over on my SpeakPipe page or just send it to me as a direct message on Twitter/LinkedIn. Audio messages will get played (unless you specifically ask me not to).
For more information, do check out the 2020 global research study "How to drive agility and productivity in Manufacturing with Industry 4.0"
And if you want to know more about any of SAP's Digital Supply Chain solutions, head on over to www.sap.com/digitalsupplychain and if you liked this show, please don't forget to rate and/or review it. It makes a big difference to help new people discover it. Thanks.
And remember, stay healthy, stay safe, stay sane!
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Show Notes Transcript
Jeff Markey: 0:05
You've got machine learning, you've got artificial intelligence where it can really help. You've got great visibility from the shelf. Ingredients, you're getting the right beverages to the right place at the right time, the right price or the consumers as they want it. And you're doing all this with the speed of need. We label that as true supply chain orchestration.
Tom Raftery: 0:29
Good morning, good afternoon or good evening wherever you are in the world. This is the Digital Supply chain podcast. The number one podcast focussing on the digitisation of Supply chain. And I'm your host, Global vice president of SAP. Tom Raftery. Hi, everyone, welcome to the Digital Supply chain podcast. My name is Tom Raftery with SAP and with me on the show today, I have Jeff. Jeff, would you like to introduce yourself?
Yeah. Hey, Tom, thanks. Thanks for having me today. I'm Jeff Markey. I'm with the Coca-Cola Company. I've been a supply chain practitioner for over 25 years now. I spent the bulk of my career either in operations so our plants and manufacturing operations across a number of our beverage portfolio, water, juice, tea,been in our bottling organisation. And about halfway through I started realising that I really like systems and processes and transformation work. So about halfway into my career, I got into large scale transformations across our ecosystem. So nowadays that means digitising our network supply chain. So that's what I'm really getting into now.
OK. And you gave a presentation to our customer council meeting their back at the... was it the start of September where you talked about a big project that Coca-Cola had undertaken in their supply chain? Do you want to talk to me a little bit about that?
Sure. I'd love to tell. I think I was actually back in July.
This is an everyday site. Every day and every day feels the same as the one before from the one following. It's just it's one of those weird years that it has.
Yeah, but you're right. Absolutely. That's a good memory. So the Coca-Cola Company is on a journey to really become a total beverage company. What does that mean? That means we want to meet our consumers nutrition needs all throughout the day. So not just, you know, soft drinks or water or juices, but, you know, in the morning, you know, coffee, tea. So we really expanding our beverage portfolio to meet that. If you need hydration, energy, whatever you're looking for throughout the day, we want to make sure that we've got beverages that can meet that need. So as a part of meeting that strategy. We recognise that our current supply chain operations within our ecosystem. So not just company owned operations, but also our franchise partners in the bottling systems, really needed to do a large scale transformation to meet that. Now, the fun thing is, is that the technology has evolved dramatically in the last five years to really help us do that. So we started a programme that we named after our iconic bottle called Programme Contour. So it matches the shape of the Coca-Cola bottle contour shape, that iconic shape. And that is what I lead for the company on our digital transformation of the supply chain to really help enable that total beverage strategy. So what are some of the key elements that we look for? So I always get asked, what does it mean to digitise the networks supply chain to deliver with speed and efficiency? And I would say, well, I'm not sure exactly what that means. I know we're trying to solve some problems.
And so we kind of start with that is good supply chain folks. I grew up in the plants and I mentioned to you. And so it's like, well, how do we go about solving those problems, digitising that solution with the technology that's available to us and then publishing that into the cloud so we can share it across our ecosystem. So it sounds pretty simple, but that's really what it's all about. It's about solving those pain points to get us from order to delivery. And a lot of that has to do with visibility throughout that supply chain ecosystem.
OK. I mean that as you say, that sounds very simple, but what does it mean in effect? I mean, what what what do you mean by visibility across the system?
Yes, it's a great question. So it starts with. Digitising our core with the S4 platform. Right. We're currently operating in SAP's ECC environment and we really want to move to that in-memory cloud based solution with the S4 architectures. We feel like that starts and that gives us a lot of speed and it helps us start to simplify and standardise our environment right from the beginning. So we've been in that ECC landscape for over 20 years. And as you can imagine, we've heavily customised it and made it very difficult to do things simply and standardise around the world and to meet that total beverage strategy. So by resetting that core, it gives us a whole new opportunity to refresh our data and make it much more able to serve us in our mission to reach that strategy with our supply chain. And so when we when we reset that, we then want to surround that environment with best in breed tools. Right. That help us with planning, forecasting, transportation, everything you think from a buy, make, move, sell, deliver across the supply chain. And so it's transforming the core that resets that that data and that infrastructure and then building best in class around that and then being able to collaborate across our ecosystem where we've got different partners, different ownership from our suppliers to the transportation folks to deliver our products across our franchise partners and really be able to think about things from the shelf back to ingredient to being able to see what do I have, where can I get it to where it needs to be, get it in the consumer hands for what they're looking for. So if you're if you're really looking for a specific milk product or a tea product at that time of day, that I've got the right product in the right place at the right price so that you'll grab it. And that will really help us achieve our overall strategy of being a total beverage company across our entire portfolio.
Sounds very simple. I mean...
There's a lot of fun, I'll tell you that.
How many ECC instances have you how many S4 instances will you have. I'm sure it's not one for one.
No. For for the company. Actually, it will be. Now, we have many company codes, obviously, inside that instance, but so far the company will will have one. So for our own supply chain assets, we're gonna go from our current ECC single instance to a single instance of the S4. Now, that sounds simple enough, right? If you think about the ecosystem I just described, there's a lot of other ECC instances across our bottling partners, our suppliers. There's also other tools, right, that in the marketplace. So I have to really be tool agnostic as I think about how I connect to generate that visibility. And so we're thinking about really kind of a publisher subscribed model, which I'm sure you've heard often. I get all of our data standardised and simplified, really, from not just the shelf where we get good market data and we've got images, but really all the way through the transactional data that starts to occur as that beverage is purchased. We get that transactional data up through the supply chain, whether it's at home, direct to consumer or it might be ecommerce, it might be far from home or near home. It might be coming through our general trade or our retail outlets or for some of our big customers that folks are going to ordering online. You're really getting that transactional data all the way up through there as well. And if we can get that and standardise and publish into a lake, we can then subscribe to that data with all these different systems. So we don't have to really be worried about having specific point to point connexions where the systems need to be similar, because that is an impossible dream for the same system and tools throughout. But I can develop data standards and simplify that and get that standardised. You have governance around that which we believe is really the key unlock because then we can subscribe to that standardised lake and we can feed these other systems to generate that instability and see it across the entire ecosystem.
I mean, I was obviously very facetious when I said some simple at the last time. But I mean, the complexity of his Jeff is just ridiculous. I mean, you've got lots of different beverages that you sell. I don't know how many. Probably in the low hundreds at least you've got, again, low hundreds of markets you're selling into. So, you know, thousands of beverages, 200 countries. I don't know how many languages. I mean, they did the audacity of the project is just mind boggling in itself. How do you sleep at night?
Well, there's a lot of expressions associated with that. That's a great point. You know, you eat the elephant one bite at a time. Or really what we're doing is building in concentric circles or Lego blocks or whatever part of the world you're in where that kind of analogies make sense to you. And so if you think about just getting the core right and we're doing that in small steps as well, then we're going to build capabilities in concentric circles around. So we don't arrive at the destination state, as I've described it to.
Tom Raftery: 10:16
Jeff Markey: 10:16
Tomorrow it does take us some time. For sure. It's a multi-year journey as we add those. As you can imagine, a lot of the challenges now really are isn't the technology. A lot of what I've described is available in the market, including adding additional layers to deal with the complexity around machine learning and artificial intelligence, which we know we can continue to layer that those technologies around these fundamental changes to really speed that up and simplify things in the complex space that you just described. But you can't get there either. I've got to do all the basic blocking and tackling, put the foundation for the concrete of the house. There's a lot of analogies that we use describe before you start trying to put the roof on or at a pool at the top or a party deck or whatever you're trying to do. Like, you can't just jump to those. You've really got to reset that foundation and build it. So it's a you recognise that if you're running a marathon, that is the journey. You can't sprint all the way. You've got to crawl, walk, run. People use a lot of different ways to describe it. I see I get comfortable and I sleep at night because we can reach success. One concentric circle, one block at a turn. The thing that does challenge me the most is when I am pouring concrete the foundation of the new building, it becomes concrete. And so that can be difficult to undo if you miss a step. So if you're getting to the top and you are finally starting to add the AI and the machine learning and gain insights and really groundbreaking and exponential change at that point, did you miss something in your data structure early on that can be really difficult to put back in? So we're trying to ensure that our commercial strategy is developed as possible for the total beverage company to inform all those different. I talked about the B2B models of the direct to consumer models, know that all those have kind of maybe not cast in stone, but a little bit less flexible than they are right now so that they inform all the work that we're driving out on the Supply chain side. And we don't miss something deep within that infrastructure as we do the reset at the digital core. So that's the one thing as we move to next year, turning on the S4 environment for us, we'll start to build the concentric circles around it. And we are we've we've got to make sure that we don't leave a gap there. That's probably the biggest challenge. You know, with that in mind, what if Coca-Cola corporate or whatever decides, OK, we're buying a shoe company now or, you know, obviously picking a ridiculous example. But, you know, I add another product to the system, whatever it is, whether it's sandwiches or, you know, whatever, how how how flexible is the system you're building to be able to deal with situations like that? That's a super question, I don't know about shoe company if you haven't seen it and the news, we just want actually building off of our Topo Chico sparkling water line, which is hugely popular in Latin America. And here in the US, we've created a hard seltzer product that just launched in Latin America and has the U.S. launch scheduled for next year in 2021. So we're getting into partnerships in beverages that are really kind of pushing on that total beverage portfolio that I talked about. So there's new supplier collaborations that are required across as there's new deliveries, there's new partners in the manufacturing space or all of that is really important that that ecosystem that I'm talking about, that we're building is easy for everybody to join, that it's seamless. We like to talk about frictionless adoption and you need to bring in a new supplier partner or new third party manufacturer to introduce some of these these new beverages. You really want them to be able to plug in to meet those data standards pretty readily. And for that to be really easy to get the visibility that you need because you're not dealing with a very vertical integrated supply chain. It's it's got Moatize tiers. And so we bring these additional partners, you have to say, oh, they're all going to have differences in different data. How do I publish that to this lake in an effective way that the others that are playing in the eco system can subscribe to that and get meaningful insights on what's happening? So I think that's a that's absolutely we're going to see more and more of that in our environment has got to be such that it's easy. As they join, we go, oh, yeah, we can get you plugged in. You can get the visibility. We can get you the forecast. We can get the transportation visibility that you need so we can see everything from order through deliberately, seamlessly as these new beverages and new partners are joining our ecosystem.
Just maybe not shoes.
I don't think...
You heard it here first, folks.
In the movie business over the years, snacks, just not shoes.
OK, I mean, to to track traceability right the way down through the supply chain. I mean, you talked about logistics. Um, you know, if if you're tracking as far as things flying off shelves. But how do you do that? Is it is it using things like IoT and edge computing? And how does all that work?
Yeah. That's a great point. That's certainly a key pain point in the system is really traceability. So from a track and trace and there's so much emphasis on that. Right. So you really want to be able to go all the way back up through your ingredients so that you can very rapidly see where everything's coming from, what went into this particular beverage in this particular country, at this location, so that the consumer is looking for that information? Or if there was an issue that you can really very quickly do that. So when you think about a digitised network supply chain delivery with efficiency and speed and has the kind of resiliency, that's certainly a pain point that it has to address. And so we've developed really effective roadmaps as a term that start with that in picture in mind and work back into how we saw that from the Track and trace perspective. And they sure that that's a key component of the programme contours deliveries that it delivers from a capability perspective. So that is a large challenge when you think about our. Two hundred countries, all the partners who we have in the multi-tier supply chain, where you have lots of different operations to get things to market. And so be able to follow that through rapidly and get that. So today we do a lot of heavy lifting to figure that out when we need to know that information. But tomorrow, the investments that we're making through these programmes and then this digital these platforms that I'm discussing, investment inbreed around our new S4 or the expectation we'll be able to do that at the speed of need. And so we've got I believe that we've got that really well covered. That was definitely one of the what problems you want to solve is I started our conversation. It was top of mind, regardless of geography. So as I heard from all of our whether it was in Central Europe or Western Europe or whether it was in Asia, Latin or the US, it was absolutely top of mind for anybody. We've got to be able to pull everything back from the shelf through the ingredients or from, you know, if you're ordering things direct to consumer. The same has to be the same capability needs to be there. So it's a huge challenge for sure. But I feel like our flexible environment that we're building with the publish subscribe models really be able to deliver that for us.
Interesting. One kind of question occurs? And that's I've had several con..., well I've had lots of conversations over you know, 70 something podcasts at this point with lots of different customers, partners, exacts, etc.. And in the last six to eight months in particular, there's there's been a huge uptake in digitisation projects. You know, there's this whole kind of meme. You see it on Twitter and LinkedIn cartoon of, you know, what kicked off your digitisation project and you got multiple checkboxes, you know, checkbox one is CEO, checkbox two as CIO, checkbox three is CFO and checkbox four, which is ticked is Covid-19. And was did this whole pandemic that we're going through have any influence on you going down this path, or did it affect plans you already had in place? Or you know going forward, would it affect any of your plans? Is or is it just completely "Oh that's happening as well"?
No. Huge implications for us. I'm sure that lots of folks have heard our chairman talk about how the impact to our way from home business when the pandemic hit and that that was about half of our business from a global perspective. So that was then retracted about half. So it was a pretty dramatic impact to what we're doing. In fact, we were really working at the time heading into that dramatically expanding our coffee portfolio through our Costa coffee acquisition. A lot of retail outlets, which all of a sudden nobody was going to go to based on what was happening. And so we had to quickly kind of pause and say, OK, we've got to rethink. And so for us, for for the digital transformation, the supply chain from a programme com to or from our our new S4 core that we've talked about today, they got back out the digital roadmap that we built. Right. And we said, OK, we're definitely on this journey. It's a multi-year journey. We're checking off the boxes. We're we're moving towards digitising these elements to help the Supply chain meet that total beverage strategy. But now the pandemic has caused things to shift. We need a lot more visibility, a lot quicker in terms of the shift in demand. And so as you start to go and you hear our chairman talked a lot about what type of recovery would be early on in the March, April, May timeframe, are we going to see more of a V shape? Is it more Howells shaved? Is it getting any really talked about kind of a W where it's more open and close, open and open and close from the Supply chain perspective? That's one of the most challenging situations because demand will really fluctuate a lot. When you have this and when borders are closing, it's more difficult to move things around. And so all that we were faced with, all those challenges that really said, look, we need much better visibility into demand. We need much more that will help us drive much better forecasting and try to get the right product in the right places where consumers are seeking them. There was also, if you can imagine, when everybody was kind of staying at home early on, you had a lot of increases in segments that we typically wouldn't see. So people were drinking more orange juice or more juice in general, more and more of our juices in the morning. So we saw this huge uptick in the juices and then there was the impact to the actual SDK use. So I repeat this. Instead of the immediate consumption, whether it was more of the Petey's and the 20 ounces that we were selling, it pivoted back towards cans in the refresh refrigerated back. And we were getting from the retail outlets and having shipped home. And so there was a packaging shift. There was a huge deal. There was a beverage shift as people were living in this different environment. And so it was very hard to see all that. So we quickly said, OK, some of these technologies that are on our roadmap, we need more now and can't wait for the new S4 core. And then I've described a very methodical, methodical process for digitising and transforming, and that helps me sleep at night to do it. So the pandemic certainly hasn't helped that because we've had to say, OK, this is aligned with our destination roadmap. So if you think about the forecast, the end of the demand and are our next generation sales or operation planning processes, we had to move more of those forward and then try to introduce some of these tools now which we've done, or to solve them with some of the existing tools that we have. But they will help us start to get some learnings and some visibility informing the more methodical roadmap that I'm on. So we pulled a number of we call them fast track items or pandemic response framework, but we've had a lot of terrific names for it to help us. And we've picked off probably a half a dozen of those really critical capabilities and brought that forward. And while obviously no one would ever ask for this to occur, it has really accelerated our learnings and it helps inform the the path that we're on because we're gaining some things that honestly we're going to come more slowly. And this has really just pushed our learnings. So kind of from a, hey, you've got to go figure this out. Now move some of this forward. It's like, wow, okay, we could do some stuff quicker than we thought. So we really gained some some learning. So like I said, you would never, you know, want this to happen. But the fact that it did. It's like, OK, what? How do we how do we adjust and shift and refocus priorities and what can we learn from this and really work hard to keep it in line with our roadmap right down? It wasn't about privatising that road map out is more about what capabilities do we need to put forward a more near-term to help us manage through the pandemic that are aligned to our destination? Right. So, for example, we're moving from the APO environment to the new IBP environment, and we already had our licences, but we hadn't stood up the environment yet. So it's like, hey, let's clean up the environment. I think it helps us manage some of these translations from what we sell back to the ingredients we get some visibility into. We actually did that pretty fast. We did it in less than three months. So we're pretty excited about that. It was very basic capability and it's pieces of the of where we're going. But, you know, we introduced the demands. It helped us do some scenario modelling. You know, if this market closes or these few that we can't deliver these. This one opens or then it opens and then closing again. You know, how can we model some of that? And it really helped us that we started giving a lot of learnings. And, you know, we did this early on in the pandemic in April, May timeframe. So it's been an amazing learning journey. So we had a lot of great things. This just accelerated our learnings, accelerated our thinking, accelerated our capability build out. So some some good things certainly have come come to it for the Coca-Cola Company.
Super. Super. Jeff, we have just gone over a 20 minute mark a couple of minutes ago. Is there anything I've not asked you that you think I should have? Is there any points we've not addressed that you think it's important that people be aware of?
Yeah, I appreciate that. Tom, I think probably the one. Kind of conceptually I didn't talk a lot about that as we introduce some of those final layers in that concentric circles, and you're really reaching the what I call the exponential component of the curve for value realisation for the investment that you've made and you're here. We've got machine learning. You've got artificial intelligence where it can really help you. You've got great visibility from shelf to ingredients. You're getting the right beverages to the right places at the right time, at the right price for the consumers as they want it. And you're doing all this at the speed of Neneh. It really we label that as true Supply chain orchestration at that point. So that's what that destination. I didn't talk a lot about that term. It certainly has been used throughout Supply chain discussions, but that's where we really see it. That orchestration allows us, if you can think about a conductor in the environment I talked to, the Coca-Cola ecosystem is very much disparate instruments that all can sound really bad. If there can be a cacophony of of not sounding good things, if they're not in sync or playing off different sheets of music. And there's more of that today arises in this orchestration. In this destination's, they have this multi-year transformation. You've got the technology acting really as the conductor to give all of those instruments and team members throughout the ecosystem flowing seamlessly. And as things like the pandemic or as new partners come in, as we've discussed, it can just absorb that into that pick up their instrument. And they joined the chorus and the conductor knows what to do and it seamlessly. And there's frictionless adoption there to bring them in. As you talked about, you know, new new players showing up, new beverages showing up, those kinds of things. So that orchestration comes as probably the one thing I did talk a little bit about. So I think that was good to get in there. Thanks for the question.
Sure, sure, sure, sure Jeff, if people want to know more about Jeff or the Coca-Cola Company or any other things we talked about today on the podcast, where would you have me direct them?
Well, I think first and foremost, the company's Web site is absolutely terrific. So just go to you can just search Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Company, Coca-Cola, dot com. They'll all working, gets you to it and you'll you'll see a lot of what I'm talking about in terms of the total beverage strategy and what that portfolio looks like. And I think a lot of people be surprised at the breadth and depth of our of our beverage portfolio today, let alone where it's going to continue to go as we innovate. I think that's a wonderful place to go. And then if they want to know more about the Supply chain transformation, some of the specific tough topics I talked about say they can find me. Jeff Markey on LinkedIn is probably the easiest way I think I can. I can share and connect and answer further questions. That's a great way to get hold of me.
Super superb. Jeff that's been really, really great. Thanks a million for coming on the show today.
Thanks very much, Tom. I really enjoyed our time together. And as you can tell, I had a lot of passion, energy about this topic and then said, I've got to keep it up, as you know, to reach that destination. Thanks again.
Speaker: 29:03
Thank you. OK, we've come to the end of the show. Thanks, everyone, for listening. If you'd like to know more about digital supply chains, head on over to SAP dot com slash digital supply chain or simply drop me an email to Tom Dot Raftery at SAP dot com. If you like to show. Please don't forget to subscribe to it in your podcast application of choice to get new episodes as soon as they're published. Also, please don't forget to rate and review the podcast. It really does help new people to find the show. Thanks. Catch you all next time.
All content © 2022 The Digital Supply Chain podcast.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


April 17, 2013 by Heather Lee 0 comments on "Music, Sleep, and My Brain"
If you've been around here a while, you know I've posted before about my love for music and the powerful effects it has on my brain. A song can take me back to a moment hidden in the depths of memory and make it real again, from scents to sensations to emotions. As far as I know, I've always been this way. Given such tendencies, it's no wonder then that I wake up every morning with a song running through my head. What gets weird is the song my head can choose.
While we were having a hearty what-the-crap moment at the song playing in there this morning (I always tell Brian when they're seemingly out of nowhere), I mentioned that I don't tweet enough. Aha! What better way to share cranial weirdness with my friends than to tweet the song I wake up with each day? It won't be often enough to be spammy and will entertain people other than us, so yay!
Look to today's tweet to find out this morning's weird. Feel free to fire back a response or hit the comments to discuss.


text:
Young adults who survive cancer hospitalized more often than the general population even 20 years after cancer treatment ends
3:28 July 13, 2015
"Even when young adults survive cancer, the cancer still has an impact on their lives and their long-term health," said Dr. Nancy Baxter, a colorectal surgeon at St. Michael's Hospital and a senior adjunct scientist at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. "And this age group still has a lot of life to live."
In a paper published today in the Journal of Clinical Oncology, Dr. Baxter found that young adult cancer survivors overall were hospitalized 1.5 times as often as people in a control group.
For all malignancies, except for melanoma and testicular cancers, the rate of hospitalization was significantly higher than the control population.
The rate of hospitalization was twice as high as the control population or greater for survivors of gastrointestinal cancer, leukemia, urological malignancies such as bladder or kidney cancer, colorectal, brain and lymphoma.
The results were similar to what previous studies have found in children diagnosed with cancer. As many as two-thirds of childhood cancer survivors develop a long-term complication from the surgery, chemotherapy or radiation used in cancer treatment.
Dr. Baxter said she believed this was the largest study ever published involving young adults who survived cancer. Her team examined data from the Ontario Cancer Registry from 1992-1999 on 20,275 people who had their first cancer diagnosis between the ages of 20 and 44 and had lived five years cancer-free. They were compared with 101,344 non-cancer controls.
Dr. Baxter said having a better understanding of health-care utilization and late effects in the young adult cancer population may help counsel young adult survivors on their future quality of life, identify areas where preventative strategies could be employed and highlight the need, where treatment options exist, to consider alternatives not associated with long-term health consequences.
This study was funded by a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Operating Grant and the Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation.
About St. Michael's Hospital
St. Michael's Hospital provides compassionate care to all who enter its doors. The hospital also provides outstanding medical education to future health care professionals in 27 academic disciplines. Critical care and trauma, heart disease, neurosurgery, diabetes, cancer care, care of the homeless and global health are among the hospital's recognized areas of expertise. Through the Keenan Research Centre and the Li Ka Shing International Healthcare Education Centre, which make up the Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, research and education at St. Michael's Hospital are recognized and make an impact around the world. Founded in 1892, the hospital is fully affiliated with the University of Toronto.
About ICES
ICES is an independent, non-profit organization that uses population-based health information to produce knowledge on a broad range of health care issues. Our unbiased evidence provides measures of health system performance, a clearer understanding of the shifting health care needs of Ontarians, and a stimulus for discussion of practical solutions to optimize scarce resources. ICES knowledge is highly regarded in Canada and abroad, and is widely used by government, hospitals, planners, and practitioners to make decisions about care delivery and to develop policy. For the latest ICES news, follow us on Twitter: @ICESOntario
For more information or to arrange an interview with Dr. Baxter, please contact:
Leslie Shepherd
Manager, Media Strategy, St. Michael's Hospital
shepherdl@smh.ca
Tara Maher
Communications Officer, ICES
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text:
#include <stdio.h>

#include "py/compile.h"
#include "py/runtime.h"
#include "py/repl.h"
#include "py/gc.h"
#include "py/mperrno.h"
#include "py/stackctrl.h"
#include "lib/utils/pyexec.h"

void __stack_chk_fail(void);
void __stack_chk_fail(void) {
    static bool failed_once;

    if (failed_once) {
        return;
    }
    failed_once = true;
    printf("Stack corruption detected !\n");
    assert(0);
}

/* fill in __assert_fail for libc */
void __assert_fail(const char *__assertion, const char *__file,
    unsigned int __line, const char *__function) {
    printf("Assert at %s:%d:%s() \"%s\" failed\n", __file, __line, __function, __assertion);
    for (;;) {;
    }
}

static char *stack_top;
#if MICROPY_ENABLE_GC
static char heap[32 * 1024];
#endif

extern void uart_init_ppc(int qemu);

int main(int argc, char **argv) {
    int stack_dummy;
    stack_top = (char *)&stack_dummy;

    // microwatt has argc/r3 = 0 whereas QEMU has r3 set in head.S
    uart_init_ppc(argc);

    #if MICROPY_ENABLE_PYSTACK
    static mp_obj_t pystack[1024];
    mp_pystack_init(pystack, &pystack[1024]);
    #endif

    #if MICROPY_STACK_CHECK
    mp_stack_ctrl_init();
    mp_stack_set_limit(48 * 1024);
    #endif

    #if MICROPY_ENABLE_GC
    gc_init(heap, heap + sizeof(heap));
    #endif
    mp_init();
    #if MICROPY_ENABLE_COMPILER
    #if MICROPY_REPL_EVENT_DRIVEN
    pyexec_event_repl_init();
    for (;;) {
        int c = mp_hal_stdin_rx_chr();
        if (pyexec_event_repl_process_char(c)) {
            break;
        }
    }
    #else
    pyexec_friendly_repl();
    #endif
    #else
    pyexec_frozen_module("frozentest.py");
    #endif
    mp_deinit();
    return 0;
}

void gc_collect(void) {
    // WARNING: This gc_collect implementation doesn't try to get root
    // pointers from CPU registers, and thus may function incorrectly.
    void *dummy;
    gc_collect_start();
    gc_collect_root(&dummy, ((mp_uint_t)stack_top - (mp_uint_t)&dummy) / sizeof(mp_uint_t));
    gc_collect_end();
    gc_dump_info();
}

mp_lexer_t *mp_lexer_new_from_file(const char *filename) {
    mp_raise_OSError(MP_ENOENT);
}

mp_import_stat_t mp_import_stat(const char *path) {
    return MP_IMPORT_STAT_NO_EXIST;
}

mp_obj_t mp_builtin_open(size_t n_args, const mp_obj_t *args, mp_map_t *kwargs) {
    return mp_const_none;
}
MP_DEFINE_CONST_FUN_OBJ_KW(mp_builtin_open_obj, 1, mp_builtin_open);

void nlr_jump_fail(void *val) {
    while (1) {
        ;
    }
}

void NORETURN __fatal_error(const char *msg) {
    while (1) {
        ;
    }
}

#ifndef NDEBUG
void MP_WEAK __assert_func(const char *file, int line, const char *func, const char *expr) {
    printf("Assertion '%s' failed, at file %s:%d\n", expr, file, line);
    __fatal_error("Assertion failed");
}
#endif

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


As Brexit looms, the people and politicians are still split. Many are for it. Also many are against it, and at this time the latter may come out victorious in this issue. In an interview with Andrew Marr, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said that there are three things that anti-Brexiters need: the deal to breakdown, an extension, and a second referendum.
The negotiation period is drawing to a close with the deadline on March 29, 2019. Still, the proposed deals by British Prime Minister Theresa May has not been approved by parliament. This puts the country in danger of leaving the EU without any deals leading to what can only be imagined as turbulent times.
The Brexit deal is the terms of separation between Britain and the EU. This is vital as many businesses in Britain have working relationships with states in the EU. The proposed deals are supposed to, ideally, allow both parties a level of freedom in conducting business. This agreement or contract must be reached before the Brexit date of March 29, 2019. In an earlier vote, British parliament resoundingly voted no.
The reason in particular, among others, is the erection of a hard border in Northern Ireland. Now, the purpose of the deal is to allow a sense of free trade between the parties. Putting a hard border into that equation complicates the matter.
Northern Ireland has a long history with a physical border, and no one wants to bring that back. Especially since the border will not only be the dividing line between the two states but also between Britain and the EU, having a border for customs check in place there can lead to unnecessary friction.
Members of Parliament seems to be on the same page with that issue. At least in terms of the vote. The problem is a promise made by the prime minister back in January of 2017. The promise was to take the country out of the EU's Single Market and the Customs Union. These are for the purposes of not being an EU "rule-taker," and the freedom to create their own deals around the world. These, however, make hard borders pretty much a certainty.
With the deal facing another rejection, one might ask what is next for Brexit? There are a few scenarios. One is that an extension can granted to negotiate for a better deal. For some critics, they see this as just a means to an end of not pushing through with Brexit. Still, what everyone is trying to achieve here is a good agreement on the separation between Britain and the EU.
It is entirely possible that Britain decides to go 180 degrees and revoke the decision without consulting the EU. That is not a good option though as experts agree that it will lead to significant political mayhem. If there is no agreed-upon deal by the 29th of March, Brexit is still likely to push forward. Only, it will be more troublesome for everyone.
Given that businesses in Britain have operations in EU member countries, they might revert to the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. In order to counteract this, these businesses can choose to move portions of their operations to a different country. That, of course, comes at a high cost.
The two-year negotiation period is coming to a close and Brexit might be a bigger issue now than it was when it started. The Brexit deal is again set to be voted on, but it does not seem like anything will change. The best thing to hope for might be an extension to negotiate a better deal, but we either way we will find out at the end of the month.


text:
All-Ireland Scór title number 7.
posted 28 Apr 2013, 03:14 by Newcastle Gaa
The All-Ireland finals of Scór Sinsear were held in Derry on Saturday last April 27th. The Newcastle club was represented by Sinéad Grant in the Amhránaíocht Aonair or Solo singing competition. After giving an outstanding performance on the night, the tension was high as the results were announced. There were scenes of great joy when Sinéad was announced as the All-Ireland champion. This is a huge achievement for Sinéad personally and also for her family, Brigid, Pat and Jamie. Sinéad's victory brought the 7th All-Ireland Scór title to the club, the last being the Ballad Group in 1996. She is the second singer to win the title after Mary Nugent in 1992 as well as the 4 set dancing titles won by the club. Congratulations Sinéad, we are all very proud of you. Congratulations also the Noel Joyce and the JK Brackens set dancers on winning their titles also and bringing 3 All-Ireland titles back to Tipperary.


Two nights ago, Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah gave a speech in which he, for reasons I can't quite comprehend, re-opened the file on the events of May 7th 2008. It seems that the Future Movement's latest round of campaign billboards — which feature slogans like "We won't forget," "They won't return," and "We won't leave you," which reference the May 7 takeover of West Beirut — managed to touch a nerve with Nasrallah, and he felt the need to respond.
Nasrallah's reading of the events is one that most opposition partisans will typically present: March 14th was doing the bidding of the United States, Israel, and the Arab puppet regimes by attempting to disable a crucial component of Hizbullah's military apparatus; as soon as they crossed this "red line", they were given two days to reverse their decision, which they ignored; Hizbullah then struck with surgical precision, shutting down the city and neutralizing all the pro-government militias that had been preparing for a battle envisioned to last weeks and which would eventually lead to the intervention of foreign armies to "keep the peace"; when this plan was foiled (with minimal casualties), the country was forced back to the dialogue table and a peaceful solution was reached in Doha.
Therefore, concluded Nasrallah, "May 7th was a glorious day" for the Resistance. Predictably, there are many who disagree, and interestingly, they are not all on March 14th's side. Former PM Salim al-Hoss, a strong supporter of Hizbullah, criticized Nasrallah's remarks yesterday, and the Free Patriotic Movement has not moved in any overt way to back up their ally. My own experience speaking to various pro-opposition types here in Beirut confirms the uneasiness with which Nasrallah's words were received. The feeling is that he overstepped.
Not that it really matters, this close to the election. It seems that the desire to win is so strong on both sides that it overrides any petty intra-coalition grievances. At some point, however, one wonders whether the FPM and Hizbullah are going to lock horns on resistance issues.
Samir: What the March 14th Christians do not understand is that the FPM is able to have a more productive dialogue with Hizbullah based on respect. It is easier to have an effect on someone when they respect you.
QN: What kind of effect?
Samir: I mean, let's take a superficial example. I, as a Christian, have no problem going on al-Manar and being interviewed by a Muslim woman wearing a headscarf. I respect her customs. But why is it a problem for a Hizbullah leader like Naim Qassem to be interviewed by a Christian woman if she is not wearing a headscarf? Shouldn't he respect her customs? Do you see what I mean? This is not an important issue, but the basic point is that a Lebanese Forces MP can't have a sensitive dialogue with Hizbullah because there is no trust between the two sides. But the FPM can, because we are allies.
QN: Is there anything that the FPM can't talk about with Hizbullah?
QN: Like the Resistance. Take, for example, the business about Hizbullah cells operating in Egypt.
Samir: I'm totally against that. It was a major mistake for them to get involved in Egypt. Not that I'm defending Mubarak — I can't stand him — but he was right when he said that Hizbullah has no business operating secretly in Egypt.
QN: Do you think Nasrallah made a mistake by admitting it?
Samir: They shouldn't have been involved at all, in my opinion. I don't understand why Lebanon — which is the smallest country in its region — has to pay the largest price in the struggle with Israel. We have paid enough already. For now, I want to go back to the hudna and in the long run I want a peace deal. I want to support the Palestinians in the camps here, to improve their living conditions and give them their rights, and to send money to Palestine. That's what I can do. But to go and fight and bring another disaster down upon our heads… no, I'm against it.
Samir: … a national defense. That's what Hizbullah is saying and I trust them. If they start to reveal something else, then I'm against it.
As we saw recently in the flap about Jezzine, it does not take much for the old battle lines to become visible. I don't know how many people feel the same way as my cousin Samir, but I'm sure he is not part of a tiny minority in the FPM. M14's Christian leadership, however, has proven to be so hamfisted in its attempts to exploit this ambivalence that it will probably end up costing them the election.
Nasrallah does not want to win the elections. He prefers that March 14 win by a small margin.
An "overstep" by SHN, perhaps, although studying his public appearances, especially since the 2006 war begs a more in depth analysis of this assumption. I felt that SHN was in control, alerting the audience when he is raising the rhetoric (by saying this is a public speech rather than a meeting with the media) or lowering his tone. Furthermore, upon raising the bar during a particularly fiery segment of his speech about 7 May, he made a point of addressing Haj Amine (Amine Shirri, the Hizb candidate in Beirut who was withdrawn) jokingly saying it doesn't matter to him (haj Amine) as he is out of it. This indicates to me SHN was quite aware of what he was saying and realised the potential impact of his utterances.
This leaves us with the question that QN seems to pose: why, so close to election day, appear to be alienating a certain segment of the 'wavering' electorate?
Angry Arab on his post sees SHN's latest speech as a further indication that the Hizb is showing signs of ambivalence towards winning the upcoming election. Angry Arab goes further to suggest, based on conversations he had with 'opposition' supporters, that the Hizb is "more worried about winning the elections than losing it"!
Be that as it may, there is a growing belief, based on hindsight, that the Hizb leadership analysed the situation, conducted a profit-loss examination and reached a conclusion that in the prevailing circumstances it is more beneficial to pass on certain messages, internally (the party members and its supporters), domestically and regionally, no matter how vociferous it sounds, than keep quite with respect to what the Hizb's rank and file consider a 'free hand' given to M14, especially Mustaqbal, in the propaganda arena.
Is it possible that the Hizb is so confident of winning the election that it doesn't feel that increasing the tempo would not matter? Or is it time that we take on board what some observers, including Angry, Arab, believe to be the Hizb hidden agenda that revolves around not getting too much involved in Lebanese domestic institutions?
HA wants some escalation or at least the threat of an escalation before and on the elections because they believe that some M14 voters will be too scared to go out and vote in fear for their safety. Because many M14 voters are not as ideologically "fanatic" or "tough" as their M8 counterparts.
While HA supporters are much more ideologically linked and passionate about their party that they would risk personal harm to go out and support them.
What Sayyed Nasrallah said about the May 2008 events, especially about May 5, was only about facts. In a long speech back in 2008, he explained in details what was happening between Hizbullah and some security officials who were sent by the Hariri, Siniora and Junblat gang and the issues that were discussed. One can go back to that particular speech to understand what happened on May 7, 2008, and what Sayyed Nasrallah said a few ago. Although there are still many things that one day will be uncovered about that notorious May 5 meeting that lasted overnight, no one can deny that phone calls were made to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Washington to take instructions, that some ministers were against those decisions, that Walid Junblat threatened to withdraw his plucky ministers if the decision to literally criminalize the Islamic Resistance was not taken, that the Hariri clan brought thousands of armed men and thugs to West Beirut aided by "intelligence" officiers from Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia who were flushed later on out of Beirut, etc.
Trying to play the so-called impartiality game does not obscur those facts and many others that, as I said, one day will come to light.
Sayyed Nasrallah's speech is the least reply one can have in the face of the utter racism and xenophobia that permeates the Hariri gang media. If it was for the partisans of Hizbullah and co., the Hariri gang should have been expelled outside the country back in 2008 and criminals and warlords like Walid Junblat should have been put in their place, along with cowardly criminals like Samir Geagea and petty criminals like Khaled Daher the one who is behind the Halba massacre.
As for taking power, it is certainly not the right moment for Hizbullah to be in full control along with his partners. They should not allow the Hariri gang to walk away from the public debt they profited from the most and with there Solidère project, just as Rafiq Hariri did between 1998 and 2000. They will have to account for what they did in one way or the other.
Regarding the Palestine issue, one can only say that the only country that benefited the most from what happened to Palestine and the Palestinians is Lebanon from 1948 onward. And many members of General Michel Aoun's FPM are still imbued with the racist propaganda against the Palestinians that they brought with them from the Guardians of the Cedar or other right-wing parties who were part of the Lebanese Front.
As for a long term "peace" treaty, one can only dream.
As for what Hizbullah did in Egypt, one can only say: the road to Palestine passes by every capital in the Arab world because those capitals conspired with the Zionist project since its inception and they still do.
I dont think thats the case,I mean, the election outcome is going to be decided within predominately christian areas,ie zahle,jbeil,baabda,kesrwen etc. Im imagining young and old,families and the lot turning out in full force to take advantage of the opportunity.Planes are coming in from far and wide even.
Im seeing colourful flags, balloons,decorations,tags etc…theres a certain extravaganza about it not unlike the election atmosphere in the USA for example.Good ol Ziad Baroud has his work cut out for him.
How is it that he re-opeed the file if M14 are touting these campaign billboards? Is it not natural for him to respond to the propoganda?
Why an over reach? It was clear at the time that tensions were simmering. The rehtoric was reaching new levels and the actions by the cabinet were antagonistic. Even if you agree with the cabinets decision you cannot deny they were meant to provoke a response.
And lets quit with this Hizballah doesnt want to win. Its far easier for the opposition to win and Hizballah not take a major part in govt. than for them to lose and risk going through what the country has gone through in the last 4 years.
I do think that Nasrallah could have ignored these particular campaign billboards, in the same way that he has ignored the vast majority of them. I was surprised that he decided to talk about May 7th all over again, not to mention labeling it as a "glorious day". Most Lebanese do not regard it as such, if we are to judge the media responses (or lack thereof) by Christian and Sunni politicians on the opposition side.
You clearly accept Hizbullah's reading, but not everybody else does. And coordination with foreign powers is not the exclusive province of March 14, as I'm sure you know.
As for xenophobia and racism, I think that these are terms that should be used properly. I don't like the Future Movement's media campaign, but I think it is a stretch to call it racist or xenophobic. Call it "sectarian" or "divisive" or whatever, but racist and xenophobic is just inaccurate. Or at least, give me some examples of what you consider racist and xenophobic so I know what referring to.
In another context or another country, such a speech could be understood as an attempt to rally the faithful, motivate the base, except here, the base is already motivated. The only two other possibilities that come to mind, then, is self-handicapping for one reason or another, or arrogance.
I'm leaning toward the latter. It's become common wisdom that March 8 is going to win, so perhaps Nasrallah took that for granted and when faced with an electoral campaign that strikes a nerve decided to double down, thinking that it wouldn't significantly hurt March 8's results in June.
The problem with this is that, as Hezbollah knows very well, legitimacy is always important for a successful party, not just during an election campaign. You're right that many, many people (all but the opposition's base) saw last May as a terrible, not glorious, day. For a party whose electoral campaign has focused on creating a big tent through talking about national issues, this speech could have negative effects in the long run.
No, the vast majority are realtively vacuous and speak to the choir. These ones could not be ignored because they can sway the undecided. The reasoning behind bringing it up again is something only they know, but if I were to guess, it would be to make the point that the party is not ashamed of what it did and that their actions were nothing compared to what would have happened if the situation had been allowed to deteriorate further. We could all see were it was leading at the time and I have yet to hear a single M14 supporter give me a credible reason behind the actions the cabinet took as an alternative to the fact that they were looking for a fight. Nor has any M14 supporter told me how the actions of May 7 were any more criminal than the sniping that had been going on more than a year beforehand.
Jihads reading maybe a M8 one, but there are facts that cannot be denied, most importantly that there were armed M14 men on the streets of Beirut. If M14 were not looking for a fight and were looking to establish the authority of the state, what were their armed men doing on the street?
The difference between Nasrallah and his Christian and Sunni allies is that the election results have no net effect on his position. For Aoun, Hoss etc. these are make or break elections. They cannot afford to be rocking the boat at this stage (which is probably my only crticism of the speech in that it may imapct his allies negatively).
P.S. Aren't we becoming a little Nasrallah-centric? Should we not also be talking about why Samir Geagea doesnt have the confidence to run himself? Or why a sitting PM is running in a potentially dangerous seat rather than a safe seat in beirut?
Let's see: if it is true that the election result is going to be decided by christian votes, and christian opinion is the one –besides the sunni one – likely to be uneasy about the polemic remarks, then would it be possible to conclude that, while the Hzb will win (their part) anyway, they don't want the FPM to win by too much, or maybe simply they do not to want them to win at all? And if that is true, or makes sense, why the hell could that be? -If one were to believe the theory that WJ's video was posted on purpose, then a parallel could be drawn between the two cases…or not?
No, the vast majority are realtively vacuous and speak to the choir. These ones could not be ignored because they can sway the undecided.
The LF posters have been pushing the exact same message for months and Nasrallah hasn't deigned to say anything about them.
I have yet to hear a single M14 supporter give me a credible reason behind the actions the cabinet took as an alternative to the fact that they were looking for a fight. Nor has any M14 supporter told me how the actions of May 7 were any more criminal than the sniping that had been going on more than a year beforehand.
Mo, I'm sure M14 was looking for a confrontation. That was the point. But looking for a confrontation is not itself an indictment of the action. March 14th's position against Hizbullah's resistance is not a secret: it's their entire platform and raison d'etre! There's an op-ed on NOW Lebanon today that basically says that the Cedar Revolution has not lost its momentum because the common antagonist (Hizbullah's weapons) remains.
This is the crux of the problem. Both sides regard the other's position as entirely illegitimate and incompatible with their vision of a viable Lebanese state. It's not that hard to understand.
I think you're right but I also think you underestimate the degree to which Aoun's constituents were disturbed by the May 7 events. Mo (and Jihad), as recently as 2006 the FPM's leadership (from Michel Aoun to Ibrahim Kanaan to Issam Abu Jamra to Ziad Abs to Alain Aoun, etc.) were talking about Hizbullah's weapons in ways not so different from the Lebanese Forces! Sure they occasionally used some conciliatory language like "we can't force Hizbullah to disarm immediately," but there was no doubt that they considered the present state of affairs to be untenable.
Ya shabab! I'm going to be in the mountains for the next 24 hrs far far away from an internet connection, so please excuse my silence in the comment section. Sean, you keep an eye out for trouble makers.
I wonder: Regardless of the fact that all these electoral slogans are creative, humorous and punning, are they understood by the larger segment of Lebanon's electorate?
I mean, it's one thing to understand and master the usage of the "Remonde Control", to stand on the "Balgon" on warm summer nights and to take the "Onstrade" for quicker access … Are the Abou & emm Melhems of Lebanon really atuned to a google ad?
What happened to old fashion ads like "Elect me because I am honnest and confident", or don't elect him because he's a crook and a wimp?
What is this infatuation with overstretched creativity ….
Nasrallah might not wanted to ignore the billboards but choose to, to avoid appearing like he is part of the political mass (i.e. politicians campaigning on a daily basis). This way, when he eventually makes a speach it weighs heavier than others.
Maverick – Maybe, but a low turnout by M14 supporters couldnt hurt. especially in some beirut areas.
MJ – I think your conspiracy theory is a little far-fetched. HA will bend backwards to support FPM, their areas are more vital than Hizb's to secure M8 majority.
If SNH does not want to win the elections, why doesnt it just say so, in true HA fashion. Its not feasible on their behalf to look like theyre trying to win( HA has sacrificed alot for its allies)and then untangle what theyve built through inciting unecessary reaction( May7 merry day).
If what SHN had said about the May 5 conspiracy and the justification of the may7 events in Beirut gave people some insight, then how on earth can he explain the incurion and the bungled misadventure into the heart of the Druze mountain?
In case you guys still have doubts about who was the real speaker in that speech of HN, then you should have a look at this.
The Wali Faqih has just entered strongly into the presidential election campaign in Iran and made his endorsements very clear. HN was just the moutpiece and he doesn't care about the parliemantary election results. Khamenei was the real speaker and the message was faithfully delivered to so-called 'puppets'.
I think it is pretty clear, as Mo said, that Hizbullah is simply not ashamed of its actions, and doesn't feel the need to hide from them. Nasrallah has no qualms about defending May 7 because he believes it was a correct move.
The anger he expressed during his speech is probably a reflection of his understanding of the importance of the "facts on the ground" in Lebanon. I am fairly confident that he considers the political/election game as something other than the "facts on the ground" and thus he is less concerned with the results of the political game v. the results of the direct politics Hizbullah engages in on a daily basis. In my opinion, this view of politics (being the result of concrete activities by the rank and file, and not born by the results of a one-off election) is what makes Hizbullah different than the other political organizations in Lebanon, and is the source of their great success. They know this, and will not abandon this calculation any time soon.
Further, after considering this dynamic, the charge that they are trying to lose is ridiculous. YET, that is quite distinct from the fact that they are also not particularly concerned whether they "win" or not. Hizbullah does not gain its popularity or power from a legislative mandate, and thus does not consider the elections a primary motivating factor in its calculations. Thus, many people misunderstand Hizbullah in thinking that their semi-apathy toward the outcome of the elections means they are trying to lose.
As for your cousin, this distinction between the politics of direct and concrete organizing v. politicking/electioneering is probably why Hizbullah does not worry about making alliances with factions like FPM. They probably feel that they can deal with them on a fairly superficial level, and they share mutual interests and can mutually benefit from such a relationship… But since FPM can never really threaten Hizbullah in a substantive way, and that Hizbullah knows this, I think your cousin's skepticism is probably justified in large part.
Get real. If you actually believe what you say, you have the depth of understanding of Bush or AIG.
I am not waiting for some one like you to make an opinion about my personal abilities. I believe it is against the rules of dialog as required by this blog. I could easily say the same thing about you and dismiss your opinion as irrelevant. I could also ignore your comment altogether as a piece of **** and move on.
Why not consider the fact that Hariri in ALL his electoral speeches has breached the Doha agreement and the entente mutuel he made with Nasrallah during their"reconciliation" meeting ,not to escalate the sectarian tones and as regard the 7 may events,let by gone be bygone?It has been quite painful to the ears to hear him speak during this electoral campaign,ressassing sectarian hatred and slogans.
And there is the escalation in Saida with the Siniora nomination,breaching there a modus vivendi that,what ever one think of it,has brought a certain stability to the "capital"of the south.
It seems to me that with this very harsh discourse(albeit ending in a conciliatory tone)he preempted what he saw as a future threat,on the line of the precedent one,by reminding the other part that his party was still vigilant,did not forget,and was still able to defend its interests.
Of course ,he wants the opposition to win the election.His party has made a lot of concessions in this sense.The last 4 years have been a "kabus"for all the opposition,including this party.
He may be overreaching (and i can certainly imagine some risk averse fence-sitters in key Christian districts being turned off by the rhetoric), but I think this speech is fairly consistent with his general emphasis on the HA's might and "ability to get stuff done"/act as a more effective governing force than the actual government (of which, from their perspective, May 7 was the ultimate demonstration).
I haven't been in Beirut for over a month now, (so I don't know if this is in fact the case) but I find it interesting that there seems to be very little discussion of Israel's threats towards Iran and what that might mean for the resistance. The HA generally goes out of its way to avoid discussing Iran. Yet, in light of the recent revelations of their assistance to Gaza (and the possibility of operations outside Lebanese soil), I'm surprised that M14 hasn't exploited the Iran issue further. Though to be honest, if Israel does attack Iran, I'm not sure the HA's being in the majority or opposition will make much of a difference in terms of the choice of response (or maybe that's an open question).
It seems my campaign slogans a few posts ago, have spurred sectarianism!
Its good to see that the more things stay the same, the more likelihood there might be changed, ah heck who am I trying too fool?
They are all a bunch of sectarians!
Its good to see that the more things stay the same, the more likelihood there might be change, ah heck who am I trying too fool?
All the FPM leadership from top to bottom used to say worse things about Hizbullah prior to 2006 and to 2005. Regardless, Hizbullah chose to work with the FPM since the early 1990s. An example was the issue of the municipality of Haret Hreik were General Michel Aoun was born.
One can always speculate about what might happen to the FPM and its policies in a post-Aoun era.
Edward W. Said wrote once: there are facts and there are interpretations of the facts. But the events that lead to May 7, 2008, cannot be interpreted otherwise than an attempt to go after Hizbullah.
I once attended a seminar by a lobbyist-for-hire. Absolutely fascinating. A large part of his approach was based on the control of terminology. The methodology is incredible.
For example, in many cases important words can be presumed to be part of the debate before the issue arises. They already carry a good/bad connotation. They do not necessarily carry any meaning. They create a list of these words & fight to "own" them in the debate. He was very confident that owning words is owning the debate.
Sometimes the words have a predetermined meaning (but more rarely then you would expect). In these cases, you need to control which words are used.
Many of the examples related to agricultural/trade/environmental policy. So think sustainability, custodianship, heritage, reform.
I think just visiting Lebanon would qualify you to play this game.
The dialog that purportedly took place between QN and his relative Samir is quite interesting. It began with a superficial issue which to Samir means "Lebanese Forces MP can't have a sensitive dialogue with Hizbullah because there is no trust between the two sides. But the FPM can, because we are allies." Samir's conclusion actually is as superficial as his superficial example. I'll show that later.
The dialog continues into much deeper issues and yet it fails to go to the crux of the problem. Interestingly enough, the dialog shows that this FPM/Hizb 'alliance' is no more than a marriage of convenience. Samir should be concerned with the question of the 'divine nature' of all of Hizb arguments beginning with its view on so-called resistance, the accumulation of arms outside legitimate government control, and ending with the unquestioned allegiance to yet another 'divinely inspired' and 'infallibly behaved' wali faqih of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Perhaps, the Lebanese Forces have already concluded that it is futile to have dialogue with such MP's who can only function on the basis of their blind obedience to a 'divinely inspired' guide!
Samir erred as I mentioned at the outset by ignoring the important events that showed how HN is bound to the wali faqih of Qom whose interests do not necessarily coincide with the best interests of Lebanon. I recently made a comment #9 here in which I explained the dilemma that HN faced following Sharon's disengagement from the SLA in 2000. I did not explain in that comment the actual political events that led to the 2006 war instigated by HN. Prior to that war, the Lebanese politicians were engaged in a National dialogue in which HN was a party. When he was cornered about his weapons he withdrew from the dialogue, and further advised his ministers in the government to resign in protest. It is clear that for HN, the weapons are not subject for discussion. So, can Samir convince HN otherwise through his so-called 'alliance'?
Today HN went on air again and gave his latest speech here.
What did HN have to say today that he didn't say two days ago? HN remembered the Nakba on its 61st anniversary. He recalled that on this day the zionist entity was formed, and the Palestinians were made homeless. He mentioned that the illegal zionist entity committed and continues to commit atrocities against the people of Palestine. We cannot but agree with him one hundred percent.
He continued to express concerns throughout his speech. In fact, the speech can be considered as a speech of concern because of the so many times he repeated that word. What is HN concerned about? He is concerned about the upcoming military maneuvers that the zionist entity is planning for May 31 to June 4 – a full five day giant maneuvers where the whole country including the population, the government and the army including the air force will be put on total war footing. He mentioned that the zionist entity has now made two separate classifications of regional groups that pose threats to it. He believes that the resistance of which his organization of Hizb is a part poses a STRATEGIC threat to the illegal entity of the zionist settlers entity. On the other hand, according to HN, Iran poses a far greater and deadlier threat to the entity and he described this threat as EXISTENTIAL.
His concern about the upcoming maneuvers relates to the fact that the zionist entity is preparing something in order to deal with the EXISTENTIAL threat facing it, namely Iran or its nuclear program. The groups that are part of the STRATEGIC threat, therefore, should prepare themselves for this outcome, and he made it clear that he and his organization are prepared. Therefore, the object of the speech is to give notice to all concerned (people of Lebanon, Government, Army, Media, Etc…) that he is in a state of full alert and everyone should be ready if he were to be forced to start firing his missiles at the command of the 'infallible' wali faqih of the Islamic Republic. This is exactly what HN means by the so-called plan of strategic defense for Lebanon. The plan is to make Lebanon organically part of the Islamic Republic' defense. In this case, his organization and the people of Lebanon should be prepared at a moment's notice to pay the price for the right of the Republic to continue with its nuclear plan until the promised one appears. Of course HN mentioned Iran only once in the speech. This is important, because it is not in his best interests to highlight the subject more than it should. After all, we all know that the objective of such maneuvers is to prepare the zionist settlers for a possible attack against Iran by the zionist entity. If HN were to highlight Iran in his speech, then hard questions may arise, what does Lebanon have to do with it? Why don't Iran and the zionist entity fight it over? Why does HN have to fire his 50000 missiles on the settlers' heads if the zionist entity attacks Iran's nuclear installations? Were President Helou and his army commander right or wrong when they refused to commit Lebanese troops to the June 1967 war? I suggest that QN should carry on with this dialogue with his cousin as soon as QN is back from the mountains. QN should find out and let us know as soon as possible if Samir still thinks in light of HN's latest speech that the FPM's 'alliance' with Hizb is strong enough to convince the Hizb to relinquish control of the arsenal of the wali faqih deployed on Lebanese soil.
The two links embedded in my comment above don't work for some reason. So I provide links herein below. Hope they work this time.
I can never understand the point of your posts. You make very little sense to me and just seem to be spouting wild anti-Hizbullah rhetoric. All you do is criticize Hizbullah as a proxy of Iran. But this argument is pretty weak.
If you seriously want to make these arguments concerning Hizbullah, you have to pay closer attention to Iran and Ali Khamenei first. Because, for example, he seldom (if ever) directly instructs anyone in Iran and I have never seen him instruct Hizbullah directly. Let's start with Iran. Considering your view of Khamenei's direct control and instruction of Hizbullah, how do you square your extremist view of Welayat alFaqih with the fact that even Iranian candidates for president have strong public conflicts and advocate extremely different policies? Or look at the Iranian parliament, and you see differences of opinions that rival those in Lebanon., what does that say about the level of control Khamenei has over political institutions (even in Iran)?
My point is just to highlight the ridiculousness of your argument that Hizbullah takes orders from Iran. How can Hizbullah be under the direction of Khamenei when even the Iranian government is not?
Part of the 85 letter/understanding was that Hezbollah was to never use its arms against fellow Lebanese–and it did last May. Now they are running cells in Egypt? They might as well be re-branded from an Islamist nationalist group to a regional actor who likes to support other anti Israeli groups, even if their general creed differs.
Cool post though. Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese political scene now. Can they continue/start to respect each other?
Quick question: When you talked about foreign armies intervening, any others in mind other than Syria's?
Get real. If you actually believe what you say, you have the depth of understanding of Bush or AIG.", WE WILL CONTINUE TO DIFFER. And you can continue to live on a different planet. So get real, and go play with someone else.
Yalla ya shebab, let's try to keep on topic and stay away from the ad hominem arguments.
At the end of the day, no one on this blog knows exactly how the relationship between the various Lebanese parties and their foreign patrons work, so I'm not sure how helpful it is for one to present x or y as an incontrovertible fact. More importantly, that's a separate topic that's only tangentially related to this post.
Are you saying in your last comment that HN's latest speech is not related to the current topic? I believe the current topic is about what HN has said two days ago. So what he had to say today would have a bearing on the topic. Besides Samir in his dialogue with QN did mention Hizb weapons and what he would like to do with them. So today's speech is actually part of the topic.
The other question is: Do you think that HN's relation with the Islamic Republic needs a mathematical proof of the x and y type as you stated? Is it not obvious that Hizb is financed, armed and trained by the Islamic Republic? Did not HN clearly state he's proud to be a soldier of the Wali Faqih? Are we little kids here to play the apologetic cover up or the obvious game of cheap propaganda?
Thanks for the ad hominem reminder. Hope the other guy will understand his folly and starts making comments instead of insults.
One of my comments did not show up. I was trying to fix those links in it. So if you have access could you release it please?, Thanks.
Otherwise here are the links again.
Are you saying in your last comment that HN's latest speech is not related to the current topic? I believe the current topic is about what HN has said two days ago. So what he had to say today would have quite a bit of bearing on the topic. Besides Samir in his dialogue with QN did mention Hizb weapons and what he would like to do with them. So today's speech is actually part of the topic and so was my comment.
The other question is: Do you think that HN's relation with the Islamic Republic really needs a mathematical proof of the x and y type as you stated? Is it not obvious that Hizb is financed, armed and trained by the Islamic Republic? Did not HN clearly state he's proud to be a soldier of the Wali Faqih? Are we little kids here to play the apologetic cover up or the obvious game of cheap propaganda?
One of my comments did not show up. I was trying to fix those links. So if you have access could you release it please?, Thanks.
Hmmmm, isn't the LF poster of the Tayyar a bit libellous?
Likening someone's depth of understanding to AIG's isn't an insult IMO. It might be a disgrace. but insult it is not.
mike, it is obvious that you do not like Hizballah and would like to see them give up their weapons. What I can't tell is if your arguments are based on pushing propoganda or whether you actually believe it.
If its the latter, I'm afraid you have seriously been misguided on the Welayat. The position is not one of a leader but of a guide. It is an advisory position not one you can issue orders from.
Secondly, while I have no idea what your position is on the Lebanese who live in the South of the country is, but your branding of the sacrifice they have made for this country and its freedom over the last 25 years as simply doing the bidding fo Iran is both extrememly disrespectful and insulting. Whatever you may think of Nasrallah vis-a-vis Iran, have some respect for the men and women who have given their lives so that the South did not become another Israeli settlement.
The understanding was not use the arms to attack fellow Lebanese. This was, and I know this is contentious but from a Hizballah pov, a defensive action.
They have never denied helping the Palestinians and never will. The only part of this "news" that was "news" was the how.
And when QN was talking of the "plot", the foreign armies that were supposed to be intervening were anyone but Syria (Specifically though the plot envisaged US/French marines).
It was wise on the part of some contributors (I think it was #15 by Maverick) to suggest monitoring SHN TV appearance last night(as opposed to a public gathering where different nuances are required), as it might shed some light on the 'mystery' of Friday's utterances re 7 May.
Few people disagree with the assumption that the Hizb has demonstrated a relatively superior level of strategic thinking regionally, as well as tactical acumen and organisational prowess not to mention ability to motivate and mobilise its rank and file. That said, the Hizb has asserted, indeed practiced over and over again its ability to be pragmatic to a fault ( note the 'Alliance Of The 4' during the 2005 election that put him in the same camp/government with long-standing ideological foes such as LF). There are two related issues however that the Hizb has demonstrated intransigence over namely the 'eternal enmity" to the State of Israel and the maintenance of the overall capabilities of the 'resistance'.
In the light of SHN's appearance last night and the time he devoted to the declared manoeuvres by Israel, purportedly the largest in its existence, could bringing up 7 May – glorifying the day and calling on the other side not to forget- reflect a belief that Israel is up to something vis-à-vis Lebanon, accompanied by a sense that some domestic forces could take advantage of such an assumed action by the Israelis; thus his call in no uncertain terms that the recent history ought to be heeded?
Worth consideration, along with all the hypotheses presented as a possible explanation for SHN's Friday public speech.
By the 4th paragraph of the WSJ article, I became convinced that objectivity will not be had, as spin abound in terminology and direction!
Thanks Akbar Palace all the same.
Really??? And you expect me to believe that? I believe every one on this planet knows by now that the Wali Faqih is the SUPREME LEADER and not just a 'guide'. And I wonder who's making propaganda.
If you read my comment #9 at one of the links in comment 31 above, you'd rid yourself of the notion that I do not respect the people of the south.
What does he know? He only studied Iran his whole life and speaks fluent Farsi.
The Lebanese government on the other hand succeeded under PM Siniora in reclaiming the South from Hizb control following Hizb's 2006 fiasco – thus silencing voices who continue to accuse the Government of M14 of being indifferent to the plight of the Southerners or the integrity of Lebanon. In fact, HN would have been commemorating a second nakba version Southern Shia refugees had it not been for the statesmanship and decisiveness of Siniora who sent the army to the South after a period of over 30 years absence forced by a veto of monopoly by the Hizb. However, for HN, this is inconvenient, since the presence of UN troops alongside the Lebanese army limits its freedom of action and hampers the fulfillment of the role of the soldier of the Supreme Leader. Hence the attack on Beirut on May 7 was a reaction to this encirclement of the Hizb fighters who effectively became un-employed in search of new opportunities. Therefore, they turn their weapons northward towards the new enemy represented by a government capable of using its armed forces in defense of the countries independence. The new enemy of course can only be fought if it were found to be in a perceived state of collusion with the Zionist entity and made responsible for the failure of the original plan of HN's abduction of the two zionist soldiers – a charge that can be easily fabricated by the media offices of the capable Hizb operatives. On the other hand, it is the Intelligence Branch within the ISF, which is the main government security branch, which is uncovering the spy rings in the country. Many of the uncovered agents have been found to be either Hizb members or residing in areas that are or used to be under Hizb control – a possible explanation for this would be the state of disenchantment of these members with the results of HN's 'divine promise' that so far has failed to materialize.
At least allows us to know where your philosophies, motivations and knowledge of Lebanon stand.
I read a book recently that touched upon Castro's rise to power in Cuba. Very important in Fidel's strategy was making a Communist victory seem preordained. Once people believed that he might win, forces that would have been inclined to oppose him instead stood aside, hedged, or attempted to placate him, thus making his victory more likely. As the timidity of his potential enemies increased, victory became more likely, causing his opponents became yet more timid. It's what we biologists call a "positive feedback cycle", and it's how a small band of guerrillas took over a country.
Is it possible that Nasrallah is trying to scare people? Trying to convince them that he is going to get what he wants one way or another, so you might as well go easy. Vote for me, or at least parties I find palatable, so that I don't have to storm West Beirut again.
If you are looking for propoganda then Tony Badran (or his bum chum Totten) is your man. You may as well ask me to read Hariri's thoughts on Hizballah (actually, Hariris thoughts may be less biased and less full of crap). Considering Badran has had the honour of being invited to speak for AIPAC, I dont see him as the go to guy for any thoughts on Hizballah.
May 7 sent two signals to M14. Firstly, it made it clear that any attempt at formenting civil strife would be relatively breif and for them doomed; And secondly it drew a line at was acceptable in attacking the Resisitance. It was a necessary evil that quite likely scuppered a greater evil. However, were Hizballah to use such tactics, like you suggest, as a way of actually taking power, they would lose a great deal of support, not just from amongst their allies, but from within the Shia community itself.
I don't necessarily mean seizing total power. Just making it clear that they are willing to use violence when their aims aren't met, whatever those aims may be.


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