text:
OJG Vol.7 No.8 , August 2017
Simulation of Petrophysical Parameters of Asmari Reservoir Using SGS Method in Mansuri Oil Field, Southwest of Iran
Author(s) Hossein Kaviyani Nezhad, Hossein Tabatabaei
Department of Oil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Gachsaran Branch, Gachsaran, Iran.
Porosity and water saturations are the most important petrophysical parameters of hydrocarbon reservoirs that accurate assessment of them in hydrocarbon reservoirs is an effective tool, important and efficient for industry experts, in the context of a comprehensive study of reservoirs and production and management process of reservoir. In this study, using data from five wells of Mansuri oil field, and using the sequential simulation Gaussian method and using Petrel software, the trend of Porosity and water saturation changes in the mentioned field for four zones was simulated. Also the average maps for each zone have been created that results of the simulation parameters in this map showed that highest average porosity is 0.1401 and 0.2756 at least saturation of water is related to zone 1. Finally result of the simulation indicates the Zone 1 is of the best reservoir Zones.
Petrophysical Parameters, SGS Method, Geostatistics, Mansuri Oil Field, Asmari Formation
In general, investigation and simulation of petrophysical properties is one of the main aspects of hydrocarbon reservoirs full studies which is performed in most oil companies. Petrophysical properties of reservoir rock such as lithology, porosity, permeability, net pay thickness and percentage of water and oil saturation obtained from well logs interpretations can be modeled by simulation of the reservoir [1] [2] . It is evident that these characteristics are affected by each well to a certain radius which is defined by the user in the software. By simulation of petrophysical parameters, a three-dimensional (3D) view of reservoir properties can be obtained that plays an important role in the development of reservoir flow patterns. Also, by simulation of these parameters, the reservoir potential areas can be identified and used in the development of hydrocarbon oil fields.
Petrophysical modeling is performed by two methods: deterministic and stochastic. SGS method is a stochastic simulation method which implements Geostatistical rules to predict and simulate reservoir parameters in three dimensions of the reservoir. The present study investigates the modeling and the petrophysical parameter of the Asmari formation in Mansuri oil field: South western of Iran (Figure 1).
Modeling software's present a three-dimensional view of all aspects of the reservoir, such as geology and structure of reservoir, fluid dynamics and well [3] . It is considered as an advanced management tool that facilitates maximum production from the reservoir [4] . These software's also help users in designing maps, creating petrophysical properties models, simulating fluid flow in reservoir, placing and designing new wells and reservoir management [5] .
One of the most efficient methods to estimate and simulate petrophysical parameters contained in these software's is SGS method that depends on wells and geophysical data [6] .
Figure 1. Located of Mansuri oil field in Dezful embayment, near the other oil fields, Southwest of Iran.
3. Reservoir Geometry and Gridding
Structural Modeling of the Reservoir
Typically, structural modeling of reservoir, is the starting point of the reservoir modeling [7] . In this part, the reservoir structure is modeled with geological properties, including tectonic characteristics and faults [8] . Also, cross section from different parts of model can be obtained to examine reservoir layers variations with thickness change and etc. Investigation of these variations allows other phases of the reservoir interpretation to be commented on. A grid model of the reservoir includes a three-dimensional cells, each of these cells contains an average of petrophysical parameters. In building the reservoir model and to obtain an accurate estimation of reservoir volume, division of the reservoir to small cells is necessary [9] . Size, direction and shape of each of the cells depend on the size of reservoir, the amount of known data from the reservoir and the direction and orientation of reservoir fractures, respectively.
Corner point gridding of the reservoir: the cells in this gridding method are very flexible and can easily show faulting effects. The other advantage of these cells is the ability to create the reservoir flow simulation cells. Generally, these cells are more suitable for geological features and because of this advantage, in this study, these cells were used for gridding of Asmari reservoir. But in the layering of cells proportional method was used in which the number of cell layers was considered constant in the reservoir and their top and bottom surfaces was considered parallel to the top and bottom surfaces of the reservoir layer. The size of each cell was 1 × 120 × 120 meters.
4. Data Analysis
After data up scaling, two fundamental conditions in Geostatistical calculations are: first, the data has a normal distribution and second, the data shows no trend. The spatial relationship between the values of a quantity in taken samples population can be expressed in the form of spatial structure [10] . These spatial structures are in fact the experimental variograms which are defined in three directions for petrophysical data of wells. According to the variograms, petrophysical parameters of each cell in the reservoir are valued in proportion to its distance from the wells, and finally the distribution of each parameter is obtained in the reservoir.
5. Data up Scaling
Petrophysical data are in the form of logging data in the well trajectory. Before the simulation, the parameters must be averaged in the cell size defined in the reservoir. This gives a value for different parameters for each cell. There are different methods to calculate the average of parameters, numerical averaging method is the best one due to static nature of porosity and water saturation. The formula of numerical averaging method is as follow:
where KA is the average of petrophysical parameter K, Ki is the value of parameter K in the position i and N is the number of samples. In Mansuri oil field using the 5 wells drilled in different locations of the south area of reservoir (Figure 2) with the logging data, the porosity and water saturation data up scaling operation has been performed using the above method. Part Major of production of this oil field, belong to the south section of area; accordingly, we selected the wells from the south and southwest of Mansuri oil field.
6. Data Transform
In order to implement stochastic methods, existing trends in the data which might be created due to geological characteristic of the region, must be identified and removed. In order to remove the trends in the data, first, the data must be normalized and then kurtosis of the normal distribution must be increased as much as possible until a range of data which is used accumulate largely around the mean data. Then, no trend remains in the kurtosis of the data. One of other
Figure 2. Situation of different wells in Mansuri oil field. A (Well No. 4), B (Well No. 5), C (Well No. 7), D (Well No. 11), E (Well No. 16).
conditions to implement stochastic method for simulation of petrophysical pa- rameters is to have standard normal distribution of the data. In normal distribution of the data, mean is equal to zero, standard deviation is equal to 1 and their distribution diagram is a Gaussian distribution. Qualitatively, normal distribution of data can be detected using formation statistical tools such as Histograms, skewness and kurtosis of data distribution, based on which the porosity and water saturation data were normalized (Figure 3).
7. Variograms Calculation for the Data
In Geostatistics using the data of a quantity in a known coordination, it is possible to estimate the value of the quantity in a different spot with a known coordinates located within the range of the spatial structure [11] . The variograms for the data express the difference of a parameter from known locations based on the distance (Lag) from the point. Using the variograms model, the value of the parameter is estimated at unknown locations. The spatial structure in statistical computations is the same as experimental variograms defined for data with normal distribution and no Defined trend [12] . The formula for the variograms is as follows:
where h is variograms value, N(h) is the number of data pairs and xi − xi + h is beginning and end of data pair i.
In general, the variograms in which one axis is variance and the other one is the distance, shows the variability of data versus the distance [12] . The more re-
Figure 3. Normalized of porosity data and histograms of them.
gular and symmetrical arrangement of wells and more homogeneous reservoir, the less variance of the estimation of petrophysical parameters of reservoir rock. Figure 4 shows porosity and water saturation variograms for each zone separately in Z direction which is the most important direction of the variograms due to the high density of data.
Selection of horizontal directions of the variogram is performed based on the acoustic impedance map which reflects the homogeneity and the heterogeneity of reservoir. So that the major axis of the variogram (X) is in the more homogeneous (low variance) direction and its length is half length of the reservoir and minor axis (Y) is perpendicular to this axis and its length is equal to half the width of the reservoir (Figure 5). Also, lags in the variogram in the horizontal direction is the distance between two consecutive known points or the distance between two consecutive wells and in the vertical direction, variogram is equal to the thickness of the cell.
Having defined the mentioned condition, the petrophysical data has been simulated by SGS method which was presented in separate SGS models for each of the fore zones (Table 1). The models allow to investigate variations of porosity and water saturation in both the vertical and the horizontal direction. The resultant
Figure 4. The variogram of neutron and porosity data for 4 zone, in vertical (Z) axes.
Figure 5. Variogram is performed based on the acoustic impedance map which reflects the homogeneity (X) and the heterogeneity (Y) of reservoir.
Table 1. Calculated amounts of porosity and water saturation for 4 zones.
integrated model of all layers has also been built. Generally, the porosity and water saturation variation maps shows that in porosity values distribution map, its maximum value starts at Southeast of the field, passing through the center it ends at Northwest of the field (Figure 6) which is the effect of Paleofacies which improves the porosity of the region due to different lithology (Figure 7). Base in Geolog 6.7.1, and using for NPHI-RHOB plot, the lithological composition of Asmari formation in this area, was recognize. The main of this lithology is limestone (Figure 8). The computation data analysis by help of SGS software 3D modeling of the average of the porosity for all zone were made. In Figure 9, variation maps shows that in porosity value for Zone 1.
Water saturation model that shows the value of water saturation in oil zones, is mainly of the irreducible water saturation, which is affected by the reservoir capillary pressure, relative permeability and porosity. To build water saturation model in the reservoir co-kriging of reservoir porosity has been used as a secondary parameter. In this model, maximum water saturation belongs to North and Northwest of the field (Figure 10).
To assess the model accuracy, the results should be compared with actual data in wells (validation) (Figure 11). The closer model results to the actual data, the
Figure 6. Modeling of changes in reservoirs properties in Mansuri oil field, Asmari reservoir. Its maximum value starts at Southeast of the field.
Figure 7. Term of lithological composition and change in facies of Asmari formation in zone 1, Mansuri oil field.
Figure 8. Plot of RHO-NPHI, using for recognition of lithological composition in Asmari Formation.
Figure 9. Model of distribution of porosity for zone 1. Maximum of porosity belongs to South and Southeast of the field.
Figure 10. Model of distribution of water saturation in zone 1. Maximum water saturation belongs to North and Northwest of the field.
Figure 11. Validation and correlation between real and estimated data of some wells in Mansuri oil field.
more accurate will be the developed model which in the Asmari model very good agreement is observed between the model results and data for porosity (Figure 12) and water saturation (Figure 13).
Finally, to identify potential areas of the reservoir, applying cut off limits for two parameters of porosity and water saturation, reservoir and non-reservoir areas model has been obtained.
Cut off limits for porosity and water saturation were considered 5% and 30%, respectively. This means that according to the production characteristics, reservoir areas should be above 5% of porosity and below 30% of water saturation. The model shows that except the southern, central and a part of Southwestern areas, the field has suitable reservoir characteristic which can be taken into account in development plans.
In the present study, the SGS method, has been implemented to produce a 3D
Figure 12. The result of validation for porosity in Mansuri oil field base in histogram, well logging data and SGS modeling.
Figure 13. The result of validation for water saturation in Mansuri oil field base in histogram, well logging data and SGS modeling.
petrophysical model of Asmari reservoir of Mansuri oil field (located in Southwestern of Iran). SGS method is an efficient method to estimate and simulate petrophysical parameters. The petrophysical properties i.e. porosity and water saturation have been used for petrophysical modeling. The data from 5 wells located in Southern section of the field has been used, therefore the results of simulation are limited to Southern area of the studied field. The software, Petrel has been used in this study, which covered whole reservoir simulation stages from the interpretation of seismic data to building static and dynamic models of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Due to high lithology heterogeneity in vertical or well drilling direction in Mansuri oil field, petrophysical parameters change in this direction while because of lithology continuity, variations of these parameters in the horizontal direction are less than those of vertical direction. In data analysis, the more organized well pattern and symmetrical distribution, the less estimation variance for reservoir rock parameters and more accurate spatial structure for the data. The maximum value of porosity starts from south and decreases to the north of the studied section. Also, the maximum amount of water saturation can be found in the north of the section. Zone 1 is the best reservoir section which has the highest value for the porosity and the lowest amount of water saturation. Zone 4 has the lowest reservoir value because of poor porosity and high water saturation. The results of models verification showed that estimation and simulation of the porosity and water saturation using sequential Gaussian Simulation Method (GSM) has been properly performed. Finally, to identify potential areas of the reservoir, 5% and 30% were applied as cut off limits for porosity and water saturation, respectively. The resulting model showed that the southern part possesses better reservoir characteristics comparing to other parts of the studied section.
We would like to express our sincere thanks to the Department of Oil Engineering, Gachsaran Branch, Islamic Azad University, and all our colleagues for critical discussions and support. Thanks also to the anonymous referees for all their gracious and critical points.
Nezhad, H. and Tabatabaei, H. (2017) Simulation of Petrophysical Parameters of Asmari Reservoir Using SGS Method in Mansuri Oil Field, Southwest of Iran. Open Journal of Geology, 7, 1188-1199. doi: 10.4236/ojg.2017.78079.
[1] Doveton, J.H. (1994) Geologic Log Analysis Using Computer Methods: Computer Application in Geology. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa.
[2] Yeten, B. and Gumrah, F. (2000) The Use of Fractal Neural Networks Artificial Geostatistics for Carbonate Reservoir Characterization. Journal of Transport in Porous Media, 41, 173-195.
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006725709303
[3] Robinson, A. and Griffiths, P. (2008) The Future of Geological Modeling in Hydrocarbon Development. 2th Ed., Geological Society.
[4] Clayton, V. (2002) Geostatistical Reservoir Modeling. Oxford University Press, New York.
[5] Kaufmman, O. and Martin, T. (2008) 3D Geological Modeling from Boreholes, Cross-Sections and Geological Maps, Application over Former Natural Gas Storages in Coal Mines. Journal of Computers & Geosciences, 34, 278-290.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.09.005
[6] Eisinger, C.L. and Jensen, J.L. (2009) Data Integration, Petrophysics, and Geomodelling. University of Calgary, Calgary.
[7] Diggle, P.J. and Ribeiro, P.J. (2007) Model-Based Geostatistics. Springer Science, Library of Congress.
[8] Holden, L., Mostad, P., Nielsen, B.F., Gjered, J., Townsend, C. and Ottesen, S. (2003) Stochastic Structural Modeling. Journal of Mathematical Geology, 35, 899-914.
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:MATG.0000011584.51162.69
[9] Randen, T. (2008) Mathematical Methods and Modelling in Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production (Mathematics in Industry). Schlumberger Stavanger Research.
[10] Bahar, A. and Kelkar, M. (2000) Journey from Well Logs/Cores to Integrated Geological and Petrophysical Properties Simulation: A Methodology and Application. SPE Paper 39565, First Presented at the SPE India Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, New Delhi, India.
[11] Etminan, A.H. and Seifi, A. (2008) An Improved Model for Geostatistical Simulation of Fracture Parameters and Their Effects on Static and Dynamic Models. International Conference on Engineering Optimization, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1-5 June 2008.
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874834100801010047
[12] Amanipoor, H., Ghafoori, M. and Lashkaripour, G.R. (2013) The Application of Geostatistical Methods to Prepare the 3D Petrophysical Model of Oil Reservoir. Open Journal of Geology, 3, 7-18.


text:
Nai Ni Chen; Photo by Steven Vandervelden
Queer|Art announces Shanel Edwards as winner of 2020 Eva Yaa Asantewaa Grant for Queer Women(+) Dance Artists
Dan Safer Of Witness Relocation On "Surveys the Prairie Of Your Room" at LaMaMa Moves! Festival
DANCE NEWS: Be Part of MIT Music and Theater Arts' COLLISION SHOP aka THE POSSIBILITY OF JOY, Facilitated by Dan Safer
Photo courtesy COLLISION SHOP
A crowdsourced virtual performance geared toward connecting people all over the world — enter through April 24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Music and Theater Arts (MTA) presents the Spring Theater Arts production of COLLISION SHOP – an online multimedia exhibit capturing the human beings on the planet right now. Brought to life by a diverse multidisciplinary team of students and professionals and facilitated by New York dance artist and MIT lecturer Dan Safer, the production emerged in response to a call for intimate video self-portraits and is a meditation on the need for human connection and search for joy.
The initial submission round has been extended thru April 24, with rolling submissions still highly encouraged thereafter – for instructions, click here. The final show, scored and edited by the lead artists, will be available for viewing free-of-charge at collisionshop.org, starting May 4, 2021. Live on-site projections to follow May 4–11, 2021 on MIT's campus (Cambridge, MA); The Invisible Dog (Brooklyn, NY); Art Lords Gallery (Kabul, Afghanistan); Art Spaces-Dance (Katowice, Poland) – with more venues to be announced.
Graphic courtesy COLLISION SHOP
An MIT Theater Arts Spring Production COLLISION SHOP is a globally-crowdsourced multidisciplinary online exhibit, open to performers and non-performers alike. Its goal is to bring joy to people by inviting them to both take part in it and watch it. This collaborative project is based on and driven by ideas contributed by a diverse 13-member group of MIT students from various fields (from artists through computer engineers and chemists to cognitive scientists) whose unique sensibility and understanding of the world brought a new perspective to this performance-based work. COLLISION SHOP emerged through a series of Zoom workshops in which the MIT team was joined by four attendees of The Norwegian Theater Academy and a renegade dancer from Poland who was under lockdown in London. The work was facilitated by dance artist and MIT lecturer Dan Safer, in collaboration with performer and storyteller Wil Petre and dramaturg Ogemdi Ude.
In March 2021, the collective sent out a set of audio instructions, asking people to document themselves performing an unconventional 6-minute performance. The voice on the recording encourages one to "show us what a CELEBRATION looks like," "find something very tiny," or simply "sit like a boss" – opening a possibility for the enjoyment of simple tasks. The resulting clips will be viewed side by side, allowing the audience to compare how different people interpreted the same instructions. Original scores by over 20 international composers, selected randomly for each playback, will ensure that the performance is never the same. Viewers will also be able to watch the clips in a "choose-your-own-adventure" style, selecting two or more videos and playing them simultaneously with the music score of their choice: for example, a clip by an amazing ballet dancer next to a 10-year-old child's, or a 60-year-old business executive in Dubai next to a college student in NYC, etc.
"As the pandemic destroyed the traditional ways of interaction and interpersonal communion, I began to ask myself: How do we make something that responds holistically to the moment we are in? To our current reality? This is when the concept of COLLISION SHOP was born. It had to be very different from a typical pre-pandemic work, extremely collaborative, open to the broadest possible group of participants and it had to play with and take advantage of the constraints imposed by the current state of affairs," says Dan Safer. "I brought this idea to the MIT students who have re-thought and re-imagined what a performance can be in response to the rapidly changing pandemic world. After fourteen months of isolation and displacement, everyone felt strongly that activating and connecting people makes more sense than doing another Zoom show. We wanted it to be funny and profound, spontaneous, accessible, and unpretentious but substantial. We open the virtual "stage" to those who rarely get to stand on it and this way, give the participants a reason to feel joy and connection. We invite them to reveal something personal and unique that will contribute to a broader understanding of where we are as people in this strange time," he further explains.
Instruction audio file
COLLISION SHOP is a collaborative project, produced and presented by MIT Music and Theater Arts, created by the cohort of students from the departments of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (Elaheh Ahmadi, Cecilia Esterman, Kellie Everett, Victoria Longe, Pranav Murugan, and Shannen Wu), Brain And Cognitive Sciences (Daniel Estandian, Fiercé Tianyu Luo), Chemistry (Aniket Dehadrai, Madeline Holtz), Chemical Engineering (Mat Medina), Mechanical Engineering (Luisa Fernanda Apolaya Torres), Health Sciences and Technology (Claudia Varela), and Music and Theater Arts (Peter Tone). The international contributors came from Art Spaces-Dance, Poland: (Daniel Leżoń) and Norwegian Theater Academy (Albert Greve Rasmussen, Anna Rauhala, Clara Random, Karol Broski.) The production was facilitated by Dan Safer, with co-deviser Wil Petre and dramaturg Ogemdi Ude. The instructions soundtrack is by the award-winning composer Christian Frederickson. Aniket "Ani" Dehadrai is the Assistant Director. The production features design by Sara Brown and video installation design by Joshua Higgason. Video editing and the website design are by GLITCH | Attilio Rigotti and Orsi Szantho; WikiHow design by Tolu Akinbo. Miguel Flores is the Production Manager for the project. Presented in association with October Octopus.
IMPRESSIONS OF: Palissimo Company and Endangered Pieces
IMPRESSIONS: Witness Relocation
IMPRESSIONS: "Wednesday" by Raja Feather Kelly/the feath3r theory at New York Live Arts

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


My books are available through Amazon, Barnes & Noble, IndieBound, Authorgraph, Quaker Books, and plenty of other great places. If you can, support these local mom-and-pop stores carrying my books!
If you're interested in carrying any of my books in your store, please contact me at johnbriggsbooks [at] gmail.com. I'll do everything I can to promote them (and your business!).
And if you're a teacher or homeschooler, my publisher offers free study sheets for Mary Dyer, Friend of Freedom. It's a great way to discuss the First Amendment, civil rights, women's history, and colonial history! Contact them at info [at] atombankbooks.com.


text:
What a dream about a wedding
Our ancestors believed that dreams canto predict the future of both one man and all mankind. In their opinion, dreams are encrypted messages from highly developed beings whose meaning can be revealed to gifted or well-trained people.
In ancient Egypt dreams were solved by priests, inArab countries - wise men. A modern person can himself interpret dreams with the help of time-tested dreams and dreams sitting in a comfortable chair with a cup of fragrant coffee. From these dream books, for example, you can find out what is dreaming about the wedding.
If you dreamed as you ran away from banditsor from a bear, then the wedding is just around the corner. What does she dream about at the wedding yet? About the wedding soon said and dreamed wedding ring. In various dream books there may be some discrepancies, since the people who composed them relied on different points of view, for example, Vanga - on clairvoyance, Nostradamus - on the stars.
From the dream books you can not only learn to dream aboutwedding, but what does it mean if the wedding is dreaming? A wedding is a rite that symbolizes the beginning of a new life, some positive changes. But on the other hand, the wedding imposes duties, that is, the person is enslaved, his freedom is limited.
Russian folk dream book, which says that,that he dreams of a wedding, assures, in addition, that to dream a wedding - to change. But if you are a guest at someone else's wedding, then the changes that will occur will not affect you. Approximately the same interpretation is given also by Aesop's Dreambook. And the English dream book connects the merry wedding with the dramatic events that can happen to your relatives. If your chosen one (or chosen one) at the wedding was not combined with a wedding with you, it is a sad dream that promises a break.
And what does it mean if you are dreaming about a wedding in whichis there someone in mourning or did you suffer? Such a dream - to sadness, it means that family life does not work out. Well, if a sick person joins a marriage, or there is a quarrel at a wedding, then your dream is bad, which presages the news of death.
Wedding is a far from unambiguous phenomenon, thereforeif you saw it in a dream, then you need to take into account many small details for the correct interpretation of the dream, which at first glance seem to be meaningless. Not paying attention to them, you can misinterpret the dream. From the dream books you can find out not only what the wedding is dreaming about, but what the dream for the wedding is about.
But is it really so important dreams in partpredictions of the future? In some cases this is undoubtedly so, for even in the Bible cases of prophetic dreams are described. For example, in Genesis, 41: 1-7, we read that Pharaoh dreamed of seven well-fed cows, who were devoured by seven thin cows. This dream was interpreted by the young Jew Joseph, but he first told Pharaoh: "... this is not mine. God will give an answer for the good of Pharaoh "(Gen., 41: 16). Beginning with verse 25, Joseph interprets Pharaoh's dream, prefacing his interpretation with the words "... the dream of the Pharaohs is one: what God will do, he also told Pharaoh" (Gen. 41: 25).
If you carefully read the book of Genesis further,you can see that both "prophetic" dreams to Pharaoh, and the ability to interpret dreams to Joseph, God sent for a specific purpose. Joseph was one of the key figures of God's chosen people, who played a huge role in the historical development of the people of Israel. So the dream of Pharaoh, sent to him by God, and the interpretation of Joseph had far-reaching consequences for the entire Israeli people.
Described in the Bible and other dreams,turned out to be prophetic. And they all preceded the most crucial events in the history of all of humanity and were sent to some historical person by God to inform him of future events.
So maybe the question of what is dreamingpreparation for the wedding, or rather, this dream itself is not just a curious dream, but the threshold of very significant historical events like the conquest of the Earth by the newcomers from the Andromeda nebula?
What does the wedding dress dream about? What is the future coming to us?
Wedding in a dream - dream book in hand
We'll figure out what we're dreaming about, that you're getting married
Dream wedding girlfriend? Dream interpretation will be explained!
Why dream of getting married: different opinions
What does it mean if a girl got married in a dream?
Why dream about a wedding and see yourself in a dream in a wedding dress
We learn what the fire in the house is about
Dream Interpretation: What Raspberries Dream About


Did you know that milk is one of the most common food allergens in existence? It's estimated that between 2–3 percent of children under the age of 3 have a milk allergy. Experts used to think that these were just temporary baby allergies or infant allergies and kids would outgrow their dairy allergy once they were 3 years old. But research has shown this isn't necessarily the case.
In fact, at least one study has demonstrated that less than 20 percent of children outgrew their milk allergy by time they turned 4 years old. While 80 percent may outgrow it by the age of 16, that's still leaving a whole lot of adults who are dealing with a milk allergy for the rest of their lives. (1) The good news is that there are a lot of natural ways to deal with this common food allergy.
Immunoglobulin E, or IgE, is an antibody normally found in humans that causes allergy symptoms. An allergen-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) blood test can be conducted to determine if a child or adult is allergic to a particular substance such as milk.
Is it a milk allergy or milk intolerance?
So it's possible not to be allergic to milk but to either have a milk protein intolerance or lactose intolerance. Symptoms of a lactose intolerance or a milk protein intolerance can include the following digestive complains after consuming milk or products containing milk: bloating, gas or diarrhea. (7) All milk from mammals is naturally lactose milk meaning it contains the milk sugar lactose. People with lactose intolerance often consume lactose-free milks. People with a milk allergy cannot even tolerate lactose-free milk.
Someone with a milk allergy has an immune system that treats dairy products as dangerous invaders. Meanwhile, lactose intolerance involves the digestive system. Someone who is considered lactose intolerant is deficient in the enzyme lactase, which is responsible for breaking down the sugar in milk called lactose. An individual with a milk protein sensitivity or intolerance has trouble breaking down the protein in milk called casein.
When you have a a milk allergy, you may notice unpleasant symptoms within just a few minutes after having dairy. Or it could take up to a few hours. An allergic response to dairy can vary by individual. Either way, symptoms of dairy allergy are not pleasant. People with a cow's milk allergy may also be allergic to the milk of other domesticated mammals such as goat's milk or sheep's milk.
So what exactly causes a milk allergy? A milk allergy, like all food allergies, is caused by the malfunctioning of the body's immune system. With a milk allergy, the immune system views milk proteins as hazardous invaders. Once a milk product is consumed, the immune system triggers the release of IgE antibodies with the goal of counteracting the allergens, which in this case would be the milk proteins.
Age: It's more common for children to have a milk allergy.
Family history: The risk of having a food allergy such as a milk allergy is greater if one or both of your parents have a food allergy or another kind of allergy including hay fever, eczema or asthma.
Other allergies: Many children allergic to milk also have other allergies. Milk allergy is often the first to develop.
Atopic dermatitis: Children who have atopic dermatitis, also commonly known as eczema, are much more likely to develop a food allergy.
Following a truly dairy-free diet is the surest way to avoid milk allergy symptoms. According to the American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology, "Avoidance of milk or items containing milk products is the only way to manage a milk allergy." (14) Plus, there are Dairy-Free Diet Benefits even if you don't have a milk allergy!
So the best way to deal with a milk allergy from both a conventional and natural perspective is to avoid dairy products and also any other products that contain milk protein. Looking at a list of dairy products can be helpful if you're not sure what to avoid. As I mentioned earlier, it's always key to read food labels, even of dairy- free foods because not all of them are truly dairy-free!
This goes along with a dairy-free diet, which is THE best way to deal with a dairy allergy. You can't follow a dairy-free diet if you don't educate yourself on what you need to avoid! If you have a milk allergy, it's not just milk you have to abstain from. For example, is butter dairy? Yes, it is. There are a lot of products that you may or may not expect to be on the list of foods that contain dairy. You also need to avoid products that contain milk or any of the ingredients below if you want to steer clear of an allergic reaction.
This is not a complete dairy products list, but it includes a lot of common offending milk products and milk-based ingredients.
There a lot of alternatives to animal-derived milk these days. Some of my favorite dairy-free milk options include coconut milk and almond milk. Just make sure that you opt for unsweetened versions of these milks so you don't overdo it on sugar. Store-bought almond milk nutrition typically includes significant amounts of vitamin E, vitamin D and calcium. (19) Coconut milk is another tasty dairy-free milk option that is loaded with healthy fats. It also contains important nutrients like manganese, iron, phosphorus, potassium, selenium, copper, magnesium and more in each serving. (20) You probably won't be missing cow's milk at all after trying these tasty alternative milk options!
One of the best ways to steer clear of milk is to make more of what you eat at home and use whole foods. This way you not only know what is going into your meals, but you also can pretty much know exactly what the ingredients you are using truly contain. Using whole food ingredients avoids the ambiguity of food labels and manufacturers of processed foods. You may want to try these 16 Vegan Recipes in a Jar, which are all easy to make and dairy-free.
It's also important to note that food manufacturers voluntarily choose whether or not to include advisory statements such as "may contain milk" or "made in a facility with milk." Ask your doctor if it is safe for you to eat products with such warnings, which are not currently required by federal labeling law. (22) In general, speak with your doctor if you're ever feeling unsure about whether or not a certain food item is problematic.
I know it's not fun dealing with a food allergy, especially when it's to something found in so many foods, but try not to be discouraged. Thankfully, there are now so many delicious and healthy alternatives to cow's milk. There are also a lot of food manufacturers and restaurants that are being a lot more thoughtful when it comes to people's food allergies and it's easier to find dairy-free options these days. In general, the best natural and conventional way to treat a milk allergy is to avoid milk and other dairy products in the first place! This is the only sure way to avoid an allergic reaction.


text:
Thomas Lee True West
Photographing and writing about the True West from Bozeman, Montana.
ThomasLeePhoto.com
Roundup, Montana, editorial work for Montana Quarterly
It was a treat to be assigned to do a profile of Roundup, Montana, with writer Jennifer Groneberg for Montana Quarterly magazine's winter issue. Jennifer lives with her husband, Tom, and their three boys on a ranch outside Roundup so she has a unique perspective on the community.
And community describes Roundup pretty well. This is Dottie, who greets visitors to Carla Gosman's Bull Mountain Trading Company in downtown Roundup.
Carla has been on both the giving and receiving ends of Roundup's community spirit. Her store sells gifts and also has a museum in the back.
And the Friends of the Library are central to Jennifer's community. Rose Emily Blum, left, says, "Most people think of community as the people you run into when you go to town. Ranching expands that definition of community. It's who you worry about when there's a flood or a fire. It's who you call to check up on."
"The river shapes Roundup," Blum says of the Musselshell. And the river is a bittersweet neighbor. It flooded in 2011 and again in 2014, submerging crops, businesses and houses, causing more than $10 million in damages in 2011 alone.
The town was originally founded on the spot Tracy's Mecca Bar and it's working phone booth now occupy, at the confluence of Half-breed Creek and the Musselshell. Nan Witzel says her mother-in-law, Terry Witzel, is responsible for preserving several of the buildings that date to the old townsite. When coal was discovered nearby and the railroad arrived in 1908, the town moved across the Musselshell to its present location. Now Roundup is the home of about 1,800 people. Many of the old buildings still stand, but they've been repurposed for more 21st-century markets.
Drive to Roundup from Billings, 50 miles to the south, and you'll pass three cemeteries reflecting Roundup's mining and agricultural heritage. You'll also pass the Bull Mountain coal mine, still in operation, and plenty of small farms and ranches.
#montanaphotographer #editorialphotographer #roundupmontana #ruralphotograph
Tags: montanaeditorialphotograph, montanaphotographer, roundupmontana, rurallifemontana
Eastern Montana, True West Editorial Photography, True West People, True West Places
All images on this site ©Thomas Lee.
montana photograph Bird Tail
montana photograph Big Dry
montana photograph Snow Grooming
montana photograph 2017
montana photograph Livingston
Four Corners Of Montana
True West Commercial Photography
True West Editorial Photography
True West Fine Art Photography
True West People
True West Places


text:
Q: $U(2)$ or $SU(2)$? Interferometers and Jones matrices Recently I've been trying to understand why the scattering matrices that describe an interferometer should be $SU(2)$ matrices rather than $U(2)$.
The condition of unitarity is undiscussed as it follows from energy conservation. But why should the determinant be especially 1?
I understand that
$$\textrm{U(2)}=\left\{ \left(\begin{array}{cc}
A & B\\
-B^{*}e^{i\theta} & A^{*}e^{i\theta}
\end{array}\right)\left|A,B\in\mathbb{C},\theta\in\mathbb{R},\left|A\right|^{2}+\left|B\right|^{2}=1\right.\right\} ,$$
while
$$\textrm{SU(2)}=\left\{ \left(\begin{array}{cc}
A & B\\
-B^{*} & A^{*}
\end{array}\right)\left|A,B\in\mathbb{C},\left|A\right|^{2}+\left|B\right|^{2}=1\right.\right\} .$$
If we have input annihilation operators $\hat{a}_{1/2}$ and output $\hat{b}_{1/2}$, than a matrix in $U(2)$ gives
$$\left(\begin{array}{c}
\hat{b}_{1}\\
\hat{b}_{2}
\end{array}\right)=\left(\begin{array}{cc}
A & B\\
-B^{*}e^{i\theta} & A^{*}e^{i\theta}
\end{array}\right)\left(\begin{array}{c}
\hat{a}_{1}\\
\hat{a}_{2}
\end{array}\right)=\left(\begin{array}{cc}
A \hat{a}_{1}+ B\hat{a}_{2}\\
e^{i\theta}\left(-B^{*}\hat{a}_{1} + A^{*}\hat{a}_{2}\right)
\end{array}\right).$$
It's not clear to me, how physically this phase indeterminacy $e^{i\theta}$ in one of the two outputs should be discarded. Nevertheless, if I compute quantities like the number of photons $\hat{b}_{2}^\dagger\hat{b}_{2}$, this phase disappears!
The same situation happens with the Jones formalism, which has always $SU(2)$ matrices.

A: Phase is a funny thing. It only has meaning as a relative concept. For this reason, if I have a state $|\psi\rangle$ and I multiply it by some phase factor $|\psi\rangle\exp(i\theta)$ I still have exactly the same state. This phase is not observable. If on the other hand, I have a superposition
$$|\psi\rangle+|\phi\rangle$$
then another superposition given by
$$|\psi\rangle\exp(i\theta)+|\phi\rangle$$
would not be the same state again, because it contains a relative phase. This is observable.
So the reason why the phase factor you got is discarded, is because it does not produce a relative phase. That is why you cannot observe it with you number operator.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Surat Al-Insan (Arabic: سورة الإنسان) (Human) or Ad-Dahr (Time) is the 76th sura of the Qur'an with 31 ayat (verses).
"Possible Pedophilia in the Hereafter?" (How a question that verse 76:19 might describe pedophilia is dispelled when the verse is considered within the greater context.) - Possible Pedophilia in the Hereafter?


At the Rethinking Disability Policy event last September a network of Disabled People's Organisations agreed to develop a manifesto of demands. The manifesto is nearly ready for consultation and sign up and will be sent out around the network by Inclusion London. Let us know if you'd like a copy.
We are asking people around the country to do things as well – debates, forums, art exhibitions, protests, to link in with this. Let us know what you're planning and we'll publicise it!
DPAC is a grass roots user-led campaign body. It was formed by a group of disabled people after the first mass protest against the austerity cuts and their impact on disabled people held on the 3rd October in Birmingham 2010, England. It was led by disabled people under the name of The Disabled Peoples' Protest. DPAC has over 15,000 members and supporters and works with many anti-cuts groups, Universities, Disabled Peoples' Organizations, and Unions.


In this lesson, we will learn how to represent a complex number as a linear transformation matrix and use this to determine the product of two complex numbers.
Suppose we take the matrix to represent the complex number and the matrix to represent the complex number .
AThis is the matrix representing which is the product .
CThis is the matrix representing which is the product .
E This is the matrix representing which is the product .


text:
ACCEPTED

#### According to
The Catalogue of Life, 3rd January 2011

#### Published in
Jb. nassau. Ver. Naturk. 23-24: 320 (1870)

#### Original name
Humaria Fuckel, 1870

### Remarks
null

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Where does CAROLLA rank in the most common names in the U.S.?
CAROLLA is identified by the U.S. Bureau of the Census as a surname with more than 100 occurrences in the United States for the year-2000 U.S. Census. In "Demographic Aspects of Surnames from Census 2000", the Census Bureau tabulated the surnames of all people who had obtained Social Security Numbers by the year 2000.
CAROLLA ranks # 68973 in terms of the most common surnames in America for 2000.
CAROLLA had 266 occurrences in the 2000 Census, according the U.S. government records.
Out of a sample of 100,000 people in the United States, CAROLLA would occur an average of 0.1 times.
For the last name of CAROLLA the Census Bureau reports the following race / ethnic origin breakdown:
Search the web for more on the name CAROLLA :


Navy destroyers stationed along the route guided the Curtiss flying boats on their journey across the Atlantic.
In 1919, three Curtiss flying boats, NC-1, NC-3, and NC-4, attempted to make the first transatlantic flight eight years before Charles Lindbergh became famous for crossing the Atlantic nonstop and alone. The NC-4 successfully completed the five-leg flight in 24 days. Navy destroyers were stationed along the route to guide the airplanes on their journey through night, fog, and rough seas.
National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution (NASM A-38529).


That's Olivia Chow on the left, Soknacki to the right of centre, Stintz further right, For example, in the current budget debate, Ford and deputy mayor Kelly were at . and also why I believe that I'm not trying to make a mockery of the system by .. Shot with a Canon SD using an intervalometer script with CHDK set to 3 . The local ratepayers' association, however, is determined to reopen debate about the .. 10/24/ Olivia Chow shows grit in life and a tough election "All he wants is to be petted the whole time," says Doug in mock exasperation . .. Pastor Nik Baumgart told the overflow crowd there was no script for reacting to. the TIFF Bell Light Box, the debate is set to feature most of the current candidate: David Soknacki, Olivia Chow, John Tory, and Ari Goldkind.
The Debates are the report—transcribed, edited, and corrected—of what is said in House of Commons Debates Ms. Olivia Chow (Trinity—Spadina, NDP): These were Liberal calls from a fake phone number, from a Liberal volunteer .. Conservatives paid for these calls and where the phone scripts came from?. Ford's mayoral rivals John Tory and Olivia Chow condemned the sexist The final televised debate of the election campaign airs Thursday at 6. Ford, Olivia Chow, David Soknacki, Karen Stintz and John Tory will all for Wednesday by staging mock debates with members of his team.
John Tory doesn't say much off-script. This cartoon goes out of it's way to mock her ethnicity in several ways. .. Similarly, if somebody saw Chow speak at a few debates or in person, it's not hard to walk away feeling. But that doesn't mean Sheila or Olivia will stop at anything to find Noah. in current events, I swear it's in next week's script," Shields said.


I have some super exciting news to share with you all.
Remember a few weeks ago I told you about that time we decided to tear down a few more walls because we just love demo? Or that time I came home to an almost completely gutted guest bathroom and office?
Well, now I am here to tell you that we have walls! And doors!
In between the hutch makeover and a Fourth of July party and the summer blog hop, Brett has been busting his buns, along with the help from my father, to get the walls and doors up. Our goal was to get the majority of the sheetrock on the walls by the end of June and we did it! And by we, I mean Brett and my dad.
That whole 'completely open concept' thing we were doing for a little while is no more. Our guests can have a little privacy, go potty in peace and not have to worry about the dogs jumping into bed with them at night.
Another great thing about walls? It means we are that much closer to the fun part – picking out the paint colors, choosing the flooring, adding the trim and most importantly, decorating.
I feel like a little kid who has been told they are going to Disneyland, but not for another year. I know it's within reach, but it's still a very, very far away.
We've sheetrocked the exterior office, the exterior guest bedroom, the mudroom and a majority of the guest bathroom.
What's left? The closets in the office and guest bedroom, the interior guest bedroom walls, the mudroom closet and a small area in the guest bathroom.
This seems to be the first phase in our home renovation and it's almost done – I mean, we just have to smooth out the sheet rock, add the flooring, finish the trim, paint the walls, stain the doors and door frame and a million and one more things.
But it's all relative, right?
Yes! Looking great! Can't wait until you get to the picking out paint colors! Leaning towards anything specific for your colors/decor?
Yes! Looking great! Can't wait until you get to picking out paint colors! Leaning towards anything specific for your colors/decor?
Thank you!! I cannot wait for that either. I haven't given too much thought on colors yet. I am spending s little more time trying to decide on flooring and trim style/color. So many decisions!!!
I love the doors you chose! And I can't wait to see more, you must be so excited!
Can't wait to see the finishing touches!
Hahaha well that's what I hear – that it is worth it. I don't know if we've gotten there yet!
Girl, I've been there with hanging sheetrock and it is THE worst. The end product always makes it worth it. Can't wait to see the whole finished project. Love those doors, by the way!!
I am so glad you feel our pain 🙂 Just have to get to the end!
That is so awesome that you have come this far. And yes, so nice that your guests can have some privacy…It is so much fun to see your hard work turning into something. It gives such a good feeling, even though there are a million things more to do!
Thank you Zan! It is nice to finally see all the work coming together.
Kelly, I am sorry I don't have your e-mail, but wanted to ask you if you have heard of Hometalk?
It is a DIY web sight that has pretty good ideas. Things are really coming along with the house. I am so excited for you both.


These Tan Lyon Used Lockers are available on www.buyusedlockers.com where they have a huge selection to choose from if we need additional supplies.
We have 319 of these used lockers at substantial savings compared to what you would pay to buy new ones. Each is 9" wide x 12" deep x 60" high. The 9" wide compartments are a great option when you need to accommodate many people with full-length hanging but have limited wall space. Well used, but fully functional and refurbished to last a lifetime.
Require the use of built-in keyed locks or built-in combination locks. Great for multiple uses such as students as well as employees!


Click here to view last year cover featuring Cameron Russell, here to view 2017 cover featuring Andreea Diaconu, here to view 2016 cover featuring Aya Jones, here to view 2015 cover featuring Gigi Hadid, here to view 2014 cover featuring Arizona Muse, here to view 2013 cover featuring Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, here to view 2012 cover featuring Edita Vilkeviciute, here for 2011 cover with Jon Kortajarena, Anja Rubik and Andres Velencoso Segura, and here for 2010 cover also with Anja Rubik.
Click here to view last year cover featuring Victoria Beckham, here to view 2017 cover featuring Emily Ratajkowski, here to view 2016 cover featuring Suvi Koponen, here to view 2015 cover featuring Bianca Padilla, here to view 2014 cover featuring Kendra Spears, here to view 2013 cover featuring Karlie Kloss, here to view 2012 cover featuring Kate King, Anais Pouliot and Ming Xi, here for 2011 cover with Anja Rubik and Sasha Knezevic.
Click here to view this year cover featuring Taylor Hill, here to view 2017 cover featuring Josephine Skriver, here to view 2016 cover featuring Lily Aldridge, here to view 2015 cover featuring Sigrid Agren, here for 2014 cover featuring Louise Parker, here to view 2013 cover with Edita Vilkeviciute, here to view 2012 cover featuring Maryna Linchuk, here for 2011 cover with Karolina Kurkova, and here for 2010 cover with Aline Weber.
Click here to view last year cover featuring Luna Bijl, here to view 2016 cover featuring Penelope Cruz, here to view 2015 cover featuring Natalia Vodianova, here to view 2014 cover featuring Vanessa Axente, here to view 2013 cover featuring Joan Smalls, here to view 2012 cover featuring Kate Moss, here to view 2011 cover featuring Dree Hemingway, here for 2010 cover with Penelope Cruz, and here for 2009 cover with Iris Strubegger.
Click here to view last year cover featuring Dakota Johnson, here to view 2016 cover featuring Kendall Jenner, here to view 2015 cover featuring Andreea Diaconu, here to view 2014 cover featuring Emily DiDonato, here to view last year cover featuring Andreea Diaconu, here to view 2012 cover featuring Bianca Balti, here to view 2013 cover featuring Clive Owen and Toni Garrn, here for 2010 cover with Elena Melnik, and here for 2009 cover with Sharon Stone.
Click here to view last year cover featuring Bella Hadid, here to view 2016 cover featuring Andreea Diaconu, here to view 2015 cover featuring Penelope Cruz, here to view 2014 cover featuring Irina Shayk, here to view 2013 cover featuring Doutzen Kroes, here to view 2012 cover featuring Maryna Linchuk, here to view 2011 cover featuring Eva Herzigova, Helena Christensen and Claudia Schiffer, here for 2010 cover with Miranda Kerr, and here for 2009 cover with Isabeli Fontana.
Click here to view last year cover featuring Irina Shayk, here to view 2016 cover featuring Crista Cober, Lucky Blue Smith and Anja Rubik, here to view 2015 cover featuring Kim Kardashian, here to view 2014 cover featuring Blanca Suarez, here to view 2013 cover featuring Karmen Pedaru, here to view 2012 cover featuring Malgosia Bela, here to view 2011 cover featuring Katie Holmes, here for 2010 cover with Anna Selezneva and here for 2009 cover with Lindsay Lohan.


I'm in progress to replace my mp3 with flac. Everytime I replace an album I do a clear and rescan.
Is there a way to see how long time a rescan takes? Don't want to start a scan if I plan to use the Squeezebox later.
That's a question I've been sitting on for a while. How do you know when a full rescan is done?
a) You shouldn't need to do a wipe, just a rescan should work (and will be quicker).
b) When the scan is complete the text "SlimServer is currently scanning your music collection..." will be replaced by "Your library contains..." on the front page.
My concern is about having the same album showing up twice. I'm not adding a new album, I'm replacing it with new files.
If I know that the scan takes about 30 min I can do the scan when I doing something else and not listen to the Squeezebox.
Yes, sometimes you have to leave it and walk the streets like an ordinary man.
A logfile that tells you that the scan started hh.mm and ended hh.mm should be god enough.
I'm sure there's a --d option which will log rescans, don't have a list of them handy right now though.
Ok,I have a look at it. Thanks.


text:
Market Comment Archive
Investment Research & Insight Archive
Lessons From a Lost Decade
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Over the past decade, stock market investors have experienced enormous volatility, including two separate market declines in excess of 50%. Despite periodic advances, at the end of it all, as a reward for their patience, investors have achieved an average annual total return of approximately zero. If the past decade has been a lesson for investors, that lesson should have two components. The first is that valuations matter. Though valuations often have little impact on short-term returns over periods of less than a few years, they are undoubtedly the single best predictor of long-term market returns. Moreover, high valuations are ultimately followed by far deeper periodic losses than emerge from low valuations. Put simply, greater risk does not imply greater reward if the risks that investors take are overvalued and inefficient ones.
The second lesson is that the effects of wasteful misallocation of capital cannot be fixed by policies that encourage the wasteful misallocation of capital. Fortunately or unfortunately, policies can often help to prop up unsustainable patterns of activity in order to "kick the can down the road." This can postpone major economic adjustments, but often makes the ultimate adjustment even worse.
Put simply, policies and investment practices that are effective and friendly to the short-term can often be destructive and violent to the long-term, particularly when those policies and practices encourage the misallocation of capital. Presently, investors are resting their financial security on hopes about quantitative easing - a policy that is essentially intended to skew the allocation of capital and provoke risk-taking in an environment where risk premiums are already thin.
When starting valuations are elevated, investors require similarly elevated terminal valuations - 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years and further into the future - in order for stocks to achieve acceptable long-term returns. Investors and analysts entirely miss the point when they propose that stocks are "fairly valued" based on a short-term condition, whether it is the prevailing level of 10-year bond yields (which can change significantly over periods of much less than 10 years), the current inflation rate, or the expected level of next quarter's profits. Once valuations become elevated, particularly on profit margins that are also already elevated, investors require terminal valuations to be stretched to the limit, years and years into the future, in order for their speculation to be bailed out. At present, stock valuations are elevated on a variety of smooth metrics. In contrast, stocks appear reasonably valued only on metrics which place excessive weight on short-term factors, and which can therefore be shown to perform poorly in historical data.
Based on our standard methodology (see The Likely Range of Market Returns in the Coming Decade for the basic approach) we estimate that the S&P 500 is priced to achieve a 10-year total return of just 5.05% annually. Using our forward operating earnings methodology (see Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings), the projected 10-year total return is just 4.69% annually. With the S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.96%, the 10-year projection from dividend-based models is even lower, at about 2.30% annually (though prospects are good that faster growth of index-level dividends will bring that estimate closer to earnings-based projections, see No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error).
Overall, the projected returns for the S&P 500 are now lower than at any time in U.S. history prior to the bubble period since the late-1990's (which has resulted in predictably dismal returns for investors). At present, investors rely on a continuation of this bubble to achieve further returns. With respect to the bubble period, the current projected returns match those we observed at the April 2010 high, and are at about the same level as we observed before prices collapsed in 2008. Valuations were even more extreme, of course, at the bubble peak of 2000, which was predictably followed by a decade of zero returns.
Keep in mind that near-term returns much higher than 5% annually would essentially be shifted from future years, meaning that higher returns today simply imply even lower long-term return prospects tomorrow. For very long-term investors, say 15 years or more, such variations hardly matter. By our estimates, investors are looking at prospective 15-year total returns in the range 5.8-6.5% annually, with enormous volatility in the interim, no matter how you cut it.
I should note that while I clearly underestimated the extent to which investors would concentrate their 10-year return prospects into an 8-month span from March to November of 2009, this was no fault of the valuation methods. Rather, I refused to discard lessons from prior historical credit crises in the U.S. and internationally. Except for the relatively contained S&L crisis, no major credit crises were observed in post-1940 U.S. data (which is what we use most heavily in our investment analysis). It is unfortunate that we would have actually performed better if I had assumed that the recent downturn was nothing but a typical post-1940 recession and recovery, but I am still convinced that this would not have been appropriate. When you develop a model using some set of data that includes valuations, market action, economic conditions, and other variables, you can't reasonably apply it to data that is clearly "out of sample" and unrepresentative of what you observed in the data underlying the model. Rather, it's essential to examine additional data that is as representative as possible of conditions you actually observe. In the case of 2009, we could not rule out other post-credit crisis evidence (such as pre-1940 data), and (unfortunately, as it turned out) that data implied the need for much more stringent valuation criteria than post-war data did.
I remain unconvinced even now that we should view the current economic climate as a standard post-war economic cycle. Still, the experience of the past few years has clearly added to our post-war dataset in that it now contains a full-blown credit-crisis. Every new data point adds information, either in creating new distinctions, or increasing confidence in the distinctions one has already learned. The past three years have confirmed much of what we already knew about valuation, while the enormous volatility of prices, despite an overall market loss, has contributed significantly to our analysis of market action.
In any event, whether or not one believes the current economic cycle should be viewed as a "typical post-war recovery," it is clear that our valuation methods have been accurate measures of likely market returns over time - even during the recent crisis. At present, the long-term outlook for equities is unfavorable on the basis of valuation, so regardless of shorter-tem influences, I expect that long-term investors are likely to be ill-served by investing in stocks at current levels.
Fed Policy and QE
Over the short run, two policies have been primarily responsible for successfully kicking the can down the road following the recent financial crisis. The first was the suppression of fair and accurate financial disclosure - specifically FASB suspension of mark-to-market rules - which has allowed financial companies to present balance sheets that are detached from any need to reflect the actual liquidating value of their assets. The second was the de facto grant of the government's full faith and credit to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. Now, since standing behind insolvent debt in order to make it whole is strictly an act of fiscal policy, one would think that under the Constitution, it would have been subject to Congressional debate and democratic process. But the Bernanke Fed evidently views democracy as a clumsy extravagance, and so, the Fed accumulated $1.5 trillion in the debt obligations of these insolvent agencies, which effectively forces the public to make those obligations whole, without any actual need for public input on the matter.
Notably, what kicked the can was not quantitative easing per se, but rather the effective guarantee of Fannie and Freddie's debts. In and of itself, QE did nothing but to provoke a decline in monetary velocity proportional to the expansion in the monetary base, with little effect on either real GDP or inflation. When QE was pursued in Japan, it did nothing but to provoke a decline in monetary velocity proportional to the expansion in the monetary base, with little effect on either real GDP or inflation. In our view, an additional round of quantitative easing will do nothing but to provoke a decline in monetary velocity proportional to the expansion in the monetary base, with little effect on either real GDP or inflation.
We do anticipate inflation over a longer horizon, but most likely not until the second half of this decade. Meanwhile, financial assets such as stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar largely reflect expectations of a large and sustained volume of QE, as well as success of that policy in provoking real GDP growth. But just as in Rudiger Dornbusch's model of exchange rate overshooting, it is unanticipated policy that produces price shifts in the asset markets - not the follow through of anticipated policy. It is difficult to see what unanticipated, positive surprises the market continues to await.
Market Climate
As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was characterized by strenuous overvaluation, overbought price action, overbullish sentiment, and a shift to neutral though not yet rising yield pressures. The Investors Intelligence data shows a significant shift from the "correction" camp to the bullish camp among investment advisors, with 45.6% bulls and 24.4% bears. The more volatile American Association of Individual Investors poll shows an even wider skew, with 51.6% bulls and just 21.6% bears.
On the economic front, we have not cleared the economic concerns of recent months. The data has been somewhat better than expected, but certainly not decisively so. Weekly unemployment claims came in better than expected last week, but if you compare the original releases to the revised data, it's interesting to note that over the past few months, every single week's data has been revised upward by thousands of additional new claims that somehow never made it into the headline figure.
The third quarter GDP report, showing 2% annual growth, was also interesting. As David Rosenberg observed, 70% of last quarter's growth represented inventory growth, while real final sales posted an annual gain of just 0.6%. While analysts evidently celebrated a pickup in consumption, it's problematic that this spending was evidently financed by government transfer payments. Note that personal income excluding transfer payments has flatlined. This is hardly a model of sustainability.
This isn't to say that the economy will necessarily turn down. We have indeed observed a limited amount of improvement in various leading indicators. For example, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index has improved from its July low of -11% to a current reading of -6.5%. Then again, the WLI improved from a reading of -10.9% in March 2008 to -5.9% by May of that year, so we shouldn't be too quick to imbue modest fluctuations with great meaning when the overall readings are still negative. Probably the best way to characterize the U.S. economy here is that short-term activity has been reasonably quiet and modestly positive, but that this progress is taking place over a far more fragile structure than observers may appreciate. The picture is much like a figure skater gliding over thin ice.
Both the Strategic Growth Fund and the Strategic International Equity Fund are well hedged here - Strategic Growth with a fully hedged and "staggered strike" position, International Equity with most but not all of its equity exposure hedged, as well as hedging about one-quarter of its foreign currency exposure.
In bonds, the Market Climate last week was characterized by unfavorable yield levels and relatively neutral yield pressures. We don't observe yield pressures that are outright hostile, but longer-term bond yields have been climbing modestly after the initial QE exuberance. For our part, the Strategic Total Return Fund continues to have a short duration of only about 1.5 years, with only about 3% of assets in precious metals shares, 1% in foreign currencies, and 2% in utility shares. This is clearly a defensive and risk-averse position for us, and is consistent with what we view as an overextension in nearly all classes of risk assets.
With yields recently falling toward historic lows, bond investors have increasingly recognized that the long bull market in bonds since the 1980's may be behind us. As far as Strategic Total Return is concerned, it is important to recognize that we tend to shift our investment stance in response to shifts in market conditions a few times a year, on average. The strategy of Strategic Total Return has never relied much on the existence of a bull market in bonds (indeed, our average bond duration has rarely exceeded 4 years since the inception of the Fund, and has often been limited to just 1-2 years). Since bond yields rarely advance in a straight line, I expect that we will continue to observe opportunities to shift our investment positions a few times annually. Indeed, from an investment standpoint, higher average yields present much better periodic investment opportunities than low average yields do, as long as yields aren't rising in a straight line. My own impression is that bond yields are likely to register their lows in one last hurrah in response to further credit strains, most likely at some point next year, but in the absence of those strains, QE alone is not likely to induce much additional decline in yields. In my view, QE is already largely priced in, and even if the Fed announces a trillion dollars of Treasury purchases, the fact is that the Federal government would still issue more new debt this year alone than the Fed would absorb.
The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse.
Prospectuses for the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund, the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, the Hussman Strategic International Fund, and the Hussman Strategic Dividend Value Fund, as well as Fund reports and other information, are available by clicking "The Funds" menu button from any page of this website.
Estimates of prospective return and risk for equities, bonds, and other financial markets are forward-looking statements based the analysis and reasonable beliefs of Hussman Strategic Advisors. They are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of the prospective returns of any of the Hussman Funds. Actual returns may differ substantially from the estimates provided. Estimates of prospective long-term returns for the S&P 500 reflect our standard valuation methodology, focusing on the relationship between current market prices and earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, adjusted for variability over the economic cycle (see for example Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell, The Likely Range of Market Returns in the Coming Decade and Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings ).
For more information about investing in the Hussman Funds, please call us at
1-800-HUSSMAN (1-800-487-7626)
513-326-3551 outside the United States
Site and site contents © copyright Hussman Funds. Brief quotations including attribution and a direct link to this site (www.hussmanfunds.com) are authorized. All other rights reserved and actively enforced. Extensive or unattributed reproduction of text or research findings are violations of copyright law.
Site design by 1WebsiteDesigners.


Woods is an eight-time champion of this event at Bay Hill, but he won't get a crack at a ninth victory this time around.
"I saw him in Mexico getting treatment before and after he played; he did have some tape on his upper back". Tiger reiterated that he hoped he would be ready for the Players.
"I'd like to send my regrets to the Palmer family and the Orlando fans", wrote Woods.
Woods' first appearance at Bay Hill since 2013 generated record crowds and a massive spike in TV ratings.
Woods has not withdrawn from an event for two years and has been in the top 20 in all of his three events this year. The WGC Dell Match Play and the Masters are also less than six weeks away. Cold temperatures and weather delays at the Genesis Open in California made for a long week, with Woods and many others forced to play almost 54 holes on the weekend.
The PGA Tour's Rookie of the Year honour has been renamed after the late Arnold Palmer, one of golf's greatest players whose huge popularity drew a legion of fans to the game.
Woods didn't specify what caused his neck pain, but he skipped the Honda Classic last week and during the British Open previous year, he wore KT Tape on his neck after he woke up with stiffness.
The Players Championship begins on March 14, and the golf world is back in the familiar position of waiting and wondering whether Woods will make it.
Sarri said: "We were trying to involve Tottenham in the fight and I think that now they are involved". This season may still turn out to be a successful one, but it hasn't been without it's difficulty.
Butts said that decision had nothing to do with SNC-Lavalin, and that her objections around SNC only ramped up around that time. Since Wilson-Raybould's testimony, opposition parties have called for Wernick, who is supposed to be non-partisan, to be fired.


It continues to be 1 of the most preferred 'best of' packages, at occasions promoting close to 500,000 copies globally per year. The drama series, primarily based on the award-winning, most effective-selling novel by Margaret Atwood, is the story of life in the dystopia of Gilead, a totalitarian society in what was formerly aspect new south wales beaches of the United States. In this tropical paradise Micah discovers a horrific new kind of lycanthropy, one particular that has afflicted a single loved ones for generations.
It continues to be one of the most well-liked 'best of' packages, at times selling close to 500,000 copies globally per year. The drama series, primarily based on the award-winning, best-promoting novel by Margaret Atwood, is the story of life in the dystopia of Gilead, a totalitarian society in what was formerly portion get low cost flights to asia from any spot about the world of the United States. In this tropical paradise Micah discovers a horrific new type of lycanthropy, a single that has afflicted a single household for generations.
It continues to be a single of the most well-known 'best of' packages, at occasions promoting close to 500,000 copies globally per year. The drama series, primarily based on the award-winning, most effective-selling novel by Margaret Atwood, is the story of life in the dystopia of Gilead, a totalitarian society in what was formerly element of the United States. In this tropical paradise Micah discovers a horrific new kind of lycanthropy, 1 that has afflicted a single household for generations.
Discover extra of what you appreciate and the people today who like it, too.
Learn far more of what you adore and the individuals who like it, as well. This stirring love story is a profoundly insightful look into the hearts and minds of three individuals who are at when bound and separated by forces beyond their handle. An American Marriage is a masterpiece of storytelling, an intimate look deep into the souls of individuals who must reckon with the past while moving forward-with hope and pain-into the future.
Uncover much more of what you enjoy and the folks who enjoy it, also. This stirring adore story is a profoundly insightful look into the hearts and minds of 3 persons who are at once bound and separated by forces beyond their handle. An American Marriage is a masterpiece of storytelling, an intimate look deep into the souls of people today who should reckon with the past even though moving forward-with hope and discomfort-into the future.
Learn additional of what you adore and the people today who love it, too. This stirring appreciate story is a profoundly insightful appear into the hearts and minds of three persons who are at once bound and separated by forces beyond their manage. An American Marriage is a masterpiece of storytelling, an intimate appear deep into the souls of people today who ought to reckon with the past although moving forward-with hope and pain-into the future.
Find out additional of what you like and the individuals who love it, also. This stirring really like story is a profoundly insightful look into the hearts and minds of 3 men and women who are at as soon as bound and separated by forces beyond their manage. An American Marriage is a masterpiece of storytelling, an intimate appear deep into the souls of individuals who must reckon with the past when moving forward-with hope and pain-into the future.
This stirring enjoy story is a profoundly insightful look into the hearts and minds of 3 persons who are at once bound and separated by forces beyond their handle.


Yesterday, I wrote an article on how I use Grunt with my WordPress theme development and deployment.
I casually mentioned the starter themes I have, both for core WordPress development and for use with the Genesis Framework. Being that I use Drupal for clients as well, I figured I would push my latest Drupal 7 Starter Theme up to Github so everyone can use it as they see fit.
All three use SCSS and Compass for preprocessing and are setup with the same Gruntfile and folder structure to keep things clean. If you're looking for recommended plugins/modules, check out the Readme's for each repository for what I use on most projects. More information and instructions can be found there as well.
Feel free to clone, fork, create an issue and send pull requests with anything you'd like to see changed or added!
If you have any questions or suggestions for using Grunt with your CMS, leave a comment or send me a message on Twitter.


Supervises and directs the activities of infield survey and inspection crews; conducts and manages inspections on county and private water and sewer projects.
Trains staff in the use of survey and global positioning system (GPS) equipment, survey procedures, project inspections, title and deed research, the use of safety equipment, state and federal regulations, trigonometry and engineering terminology.
Organizes materials, plans sequencing of work orders and assigns tasks to crews, such as construction layouts on the county's water and sewer systems, and acquisition of GIS field location data.
Conducts inspections of water and sewer systems constructed by the county's construction crews, subcontractors and private contractors.
Serves as general point of contact in the office, and single point of contact in the field for the general public, contractors, county staff and other governmental or private organizations.
Prepares inspection, construction and field reports; maintains files associated with county and private projects.
Assists private and county contractors with county policies and specifications pertaining to the construction and installation of water and sewer systems. Coordinates the planning and design of county projects with the Right-of-Way Agent.
Inspects work to ensure compliance with regulatory practices. Assist AutoCAD/GIS Technician and Engineering Assistant with survey and layout of new projects.
Assists the Right-of-Way Agent on easements and property acquisitions.
Conducts public records research on information related to past and current projects, as well as right-of-way, easement and property acquisitions (including deed and title research).
Addresses inquiries related to service areas and utility availability. Upgrades, maintains and repairs survey and inspection equipment; determines the need for new equipment.
Must be able to meet work schedule and attendance standards. Performs related duties as required.
High school diploma or equivalent; supplemented by three (3) years of experience in engineering, civil drafting and/or field survey; or an equivalent combination of education, training and experience that provides the required knowledge, skills and abilities. Must be computer literate. Experience in CAD/TDS systems software required. Experience in a supervisory or lead capacity preferred. Utility inspections experience preferred. Requires a valid driver license.
Interested applicants are directed to apply here.
Faxed, emailed and mailed resumes will not be considered.


text:
Q: sed + remove character on the first match or on the second match the following sed syntax remove the "#" in the line "Require all granted"
   sed 's/#\([[:space:]]*Require all granted\)/ \1/' graphite-web.conf

   #<IfModule mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.4
   #    Require local
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Allow from All
        Require all granted
   #</IfModule>
   #<IfModule !mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.2
        Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Deny from all
   #    Allow from All
   #    Allow from ::1
   #</IfModule>

how to change the sed syntax in order to remove the "#" on the first match ? or  for  the second match ?
expected output:
   #<IfModule mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.4
   #    Require local
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Allow from All
        Require all granted
   #</IfModule>
   #<IfModule !mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.2
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Deny from all
   #    Allow from All
   #    Allow from ::1
   #</IfModule>

or
   #<IfModule mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.4
   #    Require local
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Allow from All
   #    Require all granted
   #</IfModule>
   #<IfModule !mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.2
        Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Deny from all
   #    Allow from All
   #    Allow from ::1
   #</IfModule>

A: Use awk instead
$ cat ip.txt
   #    Allow from All
   #    Require all granted
   #    # Apache 2.2
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Deny

$ awk '/#[[:space:]]*Require all granted/ && ++c==1{sub("#", " ")} 1' ip.txt
   #    Allow from All
        Require all granted
   #    # Apache 2.2
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Deny

$ awk '/#[[:space:]]*Require all granted/ && ++c==2{sub("#", " ")} 1' ip.txt
   #    Allow from All
   #    Require all granted
   #    # Apache 2.2
        Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Deny

$ awk '/#[[:space:]]*Require all granted/ && ++c>1{sub("#", " ")} 1' ip.txt
   #    Allow from All
   #    Require all granted
   #    # Apache 2.2
        Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
        Require all granted
   #    Order Deny

See also awk save modifications in place

Or, using perl
$ # for inplace editing, use perl -i -pe
$ perl -pe 's/#/ / if /#\s*Require all granted/ && ++$c==1' ip.txt
   #    Allow from All
        Require all granted
   #    # Apache 2.2
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Deny

A: Or sed approach:
sed ':a;N;$!ba;s/#\([[:space:]]*Require all granted\)/ \1/2' graphite-web.conf

If input file contain:
#<IfModule mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.4
   #    Require local
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Allow from All
   #    Require all granted
   #</IfModule>
   #<IfModule !mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.2
   #    Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Deny from all
   #    Allow from All
   #    Allow from ::1
   #</IfModule>

Output will be:
#<IfModule mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.4
   #    Require local
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Allow from All
   #    Require all granted
   #</IfModule>
   #<IfModule !mod_authz_core.c>
   #    # Apache 2.2
        Require all granted
   #    Order Allow,Deny
   #    Deny from all
   #    Allow from All
   #    Allow from ::1
   #</IfModule>

This pattern :a;N;$!ba; reads all lines (like a while loop) before end of file and after eof has reached it execute replacing s///2 of second occurence.
The best explanation of sed labels you may read in What is the meaning of :a;$!N; in a sed command?
And read similar topic How to replace the nth occurrence of a string using sed

A: Sed is meant to work on streams. An easy way to accomplish of what you want is to use ed:
ed -s graphite-web.conf <<<$'/Require all/s/#/ /\nw'

Update:
I can go into details about ed but this page explains ed and its extensive usage in much more details.
My explanation for this line is:
-s means quite. Don't show what we changed.
Then we use herestring <<< and apply ANSI C $'' form of quotation in which the backslash character combinations are expanded. \nw means we add a new line and write to the file.

A: Here's an ex version...set shell variable x to a number indicating which occurrence to change (e.g. with x=2 the command will modify the second occurrence of the pattern)...
This one updates the input file in-place:
ex +'/#\(\s*Require all granted\)/|1' +"norm ${x}n" +'s// \1/|wq' file

Here's a piped variant that doesn't modify the file but prints the modified version to stdout:
cat file | ex +'/#\(\s*Require all granted\)/|1' +"norm ${x}n" +'s// \1/' +'%p|q!' /dev/stdin

Details:
When it's not being run interactively ex is essentially a cmdline-mode-centric, batched version of vim. So a lot of this should be familiar to vim users...

*

*/#\(\s*Require all granted\)/|1 - search for the pattern then go to line 1 to "reset"

*norm ${x}n - go the next occurrence of the pattern x times

*s// \1/|wq - do the substitution on current line only then write-quit


text:
Andriikivți (în ) este o comună în raionul Hmelnîțkîi, regiunea Hmelnîțkîi, Ucraina, formată numai din satul de reședință.

Demografie

Conform recensământului din 2001, majoritatea populației comunei Andriikivți era vorbitoare de ucraineană (%), existând în minoritate și vorbitori de rusă (%).

Note

Andriikivtți
Andriikivtți, Hmelniîtțkiîi
Andriikivtți, Hmelniîtțkiîi, Hmelniîtțkiîi

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Q: Windows BAT script for cp alias produces error I wrote a file called cp.bat and the content of this file is: DOSKEY cp=COPY $* copy. I saved this file in c:\users\myname\aliases. I also added this path to my environment so cmd can execute it.
When I now type cp in my cmd the output is a strange character for the c in cp.

I need this script to work because I want to install chicken scheme eggs on my machine, but the chicken-install command executes multiple cp commands and those are not recognized in the cmd.
I also tried to alter the build script of the eggs, but it gets newly generated everytime I call the chicken-install command.
It would also help if someone could explain me how to install chicken eggs on a windows machine correctly. I feel this workaround shouldn't be necessary. Thanks in advance.

A: Like Magoo mentioned:

In all probability, your editor is the root of your problem. Batch files should be created in strict ANSI format using a text-editor, not a word-processor. Notepad is barely adequate; Notepad++ is far better - I use Editplus

The encoding was messed up and it was set to UTF-8-BOM, so I changed it to ANSI and it worked flawlessly.

A: If you're using CHICKEN 5, it should not be emitting cp commands; it should emit batch files which use the builtin Windows commands only if you're using the mingw platform target.  Have you used the PLATFORM=mingw option with every make invocation?
If you're using the mingw-msys (or cygwin) platform, then it will be emitting UNIX style commands.


An educational tool to engage and educate patients about anti-aging skincare options from prevention to reversal.
Dr. Gohara is a fellow of the American Academy of Dermatology, an active member of both the Women's Dermatologic Society, where she previously served on the Board of Directors, and American Society for Dermatologic Surgery where she serves on the Media Relations Work Group. Dr. Gohara works closely with media online and in print to spread the word about skin health. She is in private practice at Advanced DermCare in Danbury, CT, and also maintains a clinical faculty position at Yale New Haven Hospital where she sees patients and teaches residents.
The job of physicians specializing in skin is to treat and educate. Helping patients make informed choices about routine skincare as well as treatment options are of utmost importance. Mona Gohara, MD created a Skincare Pyramid to help guide patients who want to prevent and reverse signs of aging. Ahead, she shares why this tool has been an asset to her patients and practice.
The Skincare Pyramid emphasizes Dr. Gohara's 360-degree approach to anti-aging, starting with a base of preventive care steps, building up to treatment options for reversal of specific skin concerns.
The pyramid is built on the concept that having a daily, foundational skincare regimen to prevent signs of aging is paramount. This includes use of gentle, hydrating, non-soap cleaners, antioxidants, SPF 30+, vitamin A derivatives, and moisturizers.
"I tell my patients, if you had a twin with your exact DNA, and you start this type of skin regimen, while he or she doesn't, you're going to ward off the signs of aging much longer," says Dr. Gohara.
In showing the pyramid handout to patients, it becomes easy to discuss steps that should be followed in a good morning and nighttime routine. The sheet also provides a take-home reference for when, and in what order, products should be applied for maximum benefit. During the consult, notes can be written on the handout for patients to refer back to at a later date.
The next step up the ladder includes procedures patients should consider every three to four months, or quarterly, such as facials, microdermabrasion, chemical peels, and even some devices. There are many options at this stage, but Dr. Gohara says that these treatments included on her pyramid offer a good, representative, starting point so that patients do not get overwhelmed.
The next rung up the pyramid includes options for reversing the signs of aging: neurotoxins, fillers, lasers, other devices, and body contouring options such as CoolSculpting.
At the very top of the pyramid is surgery, which, if considered, will likely be not more than once in a lifetime for a particular area.
Dr. Gohara also includes a box in the top corner of her handout to emphasize exercise, sleep, and a well-rounded diet so patients understand that skincare requires a holistic approach and that those three elements are an important piece of this puzzle.
Why did you decide to create a Skincare Pyramid for your practice?
Dr. Gohara: Number one, it provides a context for the fact that antiaging is a complex topic. It's not just about a cream or one device, it really is a complex issue to tackle. The pyramid provides a contextual relevance for the patients that they appreciate as we delve into treatment. I analogize it to my patients by asking, "Would you ever go to the gym and just work out your arms? Not likely." By choosing just one cream or treatment, it is a similar unidimensional approach.
Number two, it puts skin health on an even playing field with the health of other organs. It's not bloody and gutsy, so people don't think of it as such, but it is our largest organ. People tend to think about skin health as a one-point-in-time kind of thing. For example, "I have to wear my sunscreen when I go to the beach," or "I have to put on my acne cream when I'm breaking out." Ideally, patients should be cognizant of optimizing skin health daily.
The goal is to make skin top of mind by emphasizing the base of this pyramid, which focuses on prevention. Much like a patient would eat well and exercise for cardiovascular health, s/he should do certain things routinely for skin health.
Number three, it provides a reference for the patients, which is important, especially in aesthetic medicine. Patients are bombarded with many different creams and magic elixirs that claim to be the secret to the fountain of youth. The Skincare Pyramid provides trusted information from a reliable source. It puts recommended products in the context of what they're best used for, which is some reversal, but primarily prevention, and making the skin look good on a day-to-day basis. Which, I might add, is a critical component of patient satisfaction.
If a patient comes back to my office a couple months later and says, "You recommended this cream and I don't really think I see any difference," I usually emphasize, with a copy of the pyramid in my hand, "Remember this bottom line, where the cream fits into the scheme of things is primarily about preventing further damage." Again, the visual puts the cream in context of where it best fits into one's daily routine.
Do you provide the pyramid to every patient who presents to your office?
Dr. Gohara: I give it to patients who are coming in to do a cosmetic consult, and anyone presenting to the office looking for recommendations on anti-aging products or treatments. If someone wants eye rejuvenation, they will get best results if they choose a beneficial serum (base), get a light peel (middle), and use neurotoxin (top). Choosing one of the three can still get results, just not the best results. This is the message and context I want to relay.
I present it to the patients who are asking about global antiaging, but it's also for those seeking advice about a specific area that they don't like. That could happen at the end of a skin check that I'm performing or even at the end of an acne visit. Maybe the acne is now under control, but they're concerned about scarring and marks. It would be the same approach.
That's a reason I really like this pyramid. It's applicable in many different contexts or skin conditions. Although it was developed for the cosmetic patient, one can see how the idea can be salient when treating, acne, psoriasis, or fill in the blank.
The core concept that the pyramid illustrates is that there are daily things that patients should do for prevention of further damage and then there are also the options for reversal as you move up the ladder. Although the content may change, this ideally can be a universal approach in the treatment of skin.
What other benefits does the pyramid provide?
Dr. Gohara: It enhances the patient experience. This piece of paper is a great tool. It makes you sit down with the patient, eye to eye; you engage them, talk to them, draw and illustrate for them. You are relaying the same information that you would have relayed otherwise, but the manner in which you are doing it allows the patient to feel that you're going the extra mile and truly caring for them. It takes five minutes, we are not talking hours. Setting the stage and doing some basic explaining reinforces the idea that our goal is to optimize outcome, not to sell the next latest and greatest thing. It shows patients that there is some thought that goes into your recommendations, and builds patient rapport.
While the pyramid helps to build patient engagement and offers an opportunity to recommend products and treatments for prevention, does it also open up conversations about future options and why they should be coming back to the office down the road?
Dr. Gohara: That's exactly right—this isn't just about what needs to be addressed right now. It really is something that helps to establish a long-term relationship. I can explain what might be good for them right now—what they can do for prevention. I can also relay that they may not need anything for reversal at the moment, but can talk about future options. They keep this in the back of their mind, and return when the time may be more appropriate. Patients are inundated constantly with specials from Medspas and Groupons for anti-aging treatments, but they aren't provided with the larger context or the the science behind antiaging. By educating patients, you establish a rapport and unique trust that is hard to find in more generic resources.
It helps patients to put antiaging in the context of other medical scenarios, because then they understand that aesthetic medicine is not just about a cream. It is medicine.
Do you include specific product recommendations when discussing the pyramid with patients? And, if so, is there a value to dispensing any of the recommended products in the office?
Dr. Gohara: I do make specific recommendations. I think it's helpful, because again, patients are really overwhelmed and they are constantly barraged with information about the latest cosmeceuticals, etc. But I like to use the "Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic" model. They're all pretty much the same. You can get the same denim at all three places, but one may be a slightly higher quality, and there's going to be some benefits to that. I offer a range of products at different price points—there may be cosmetic elegance to one that the other may not have. A broad range of effective options is always best.
I offer products that I like and are available for purchase through my practice but also let them know about others, available over the counter. I aim to be respectful of every patient's financial considerations. Usually I write my specific recommendations on the Skincare Pyramid handout, so that they may take it home.
Does this approach to discussing overall anti-aging strategies also help make the patient be more accountable for their role so they understand they can't come to you for one treatment to make everything better?
We all know that sometimes doctor's visits are overwhelming. Often the patient will be uncomfortable because they're nervous or there is a lot of information being presented at one time. It's good to have a documentable reference such as the Skincare Pyramid on hand, so that accountability is definitely there.
There's a practicality to the pyramid. And when someone understands something, they are more likely to invest in it.


On the first picture you could see bridle Tokyo. Here it is padded in cappuccino and with special combination noseband Comfort XS 4,5cm anatomically formed and with the new flower print bronze and piping fineline sm.topaz. Browband XL (8mm) curved in XL brown mix.
On the second picture you could see bridle Tokyo black padded and again with the 4,5cm Comfort XS anatomically formed special combination noseband with the new flower print bordeaux and fineline piping black. This browband has XL (8mm) stones in dark red-irid.red pearl.